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Today, the world is filled with conflict. Part of the problem is oil limits, but there are many other issues as well:
- Resources such as coal, lithium, and copper are also becoming more expensive to extract.
- Fresh water is often inadequate for the world’s rising population.
- Debt levels are very high.
- Complexity is very high.
- An adequate standard of living is becoming unaffordable for many people.
- The increasing world population leads to a need for more food and more paved roads.
These symptoms strongly suggest that the world economy is headed for a slow-motion collapse.
The system causing the problem is physics-based. Without enough affordable energy of the right types, the economy tends to collapse. This is the predicament we are facing today.
What should ordinary citizens do? I am not certain that there is one correct answer, or that I know it. In this post, I would like to offer some suggestions for discussion.
[1] Every day, give thanks for the many things you do have.
We are at the peak of resources per capita. This means that, as a group, we have as many goods and services as any population that has ever lived. We also have lots of natural resources remaining. We have a huge amount of complexity, with many young people receiving university degrees.
It is easy to lose sight of how much we do have. Most readers of this blog eat a variety of food in the quantities desired. We live in homes that are heated in winter. Even today, many people around the world are not as fortunate as we are.
[2] To the extent possible, stay away from conflict yourself.
The physics of the system will create conflict because the system must change if there is no longer enough oil to ship huge amounts of goods and services across the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. Perhaps a few highly valued goods and services can be shipped long distance, but patterns must change to put the production of goods and services closer to the consumption of goods and services. This is a major reason why countries are quarreling now.
There is no point in individuals strongly objecting to cutbacks in trade because today’s lack of oil supply is demanding these cuts. The only way one country can lessen the impact of the reduced oil supply is to push the reduction in indirect oil consumption onto another country, using quotas or tariffs on its imports of goods and services. Needless to say, pushing other countries down to benefit one’s own country is likely to create conflict.
Another issue is that with reduced oil and other energy supplies, governments cannot continue to provide as many services as they have in the recent past. They need to reduce the number of government workers in many departments. This is the reason for the many cutbacks by the US Department of Government Efficiency and similar cuts in other countries. It also means that benefit programs, such as those aimed at seniors, the disabled, or hurricane relief, will need to be reduced or eliminated in the future.
We can argue about which programs should be cut back first, but ultimately, all government programs will need to be cut back substantially. Just printing money to try to solve the problem will likely lead to inflation; money doesn’t solve the physics problem we are facing. Energy products of the right kinds are needed for every part of GDP; not having sufficient oil is likely to cut back the supply of goods produced using oil products, including food.
If you get involved in protests, or even in war, you will be putting yourself in harm’s way. And, in the long run, you are unlikely to gain significant benefits personally.
[3] Expect declining complexity in the future.
There are many aspects to complexity:
- Much international trade
- Much debt
- Businesses with multiple layers
- Governments providing a wide range of services, including pension plans and health care
- Energy efficient vehicles
- Appliances that are designed to save energy
- Healthcare with many specialized physicians and high-cost drugs
- Agriculture with many hybrid seeds, herbicides, insecticides, and soil amendments
All these types of complexity will need to be scaled back in the future, but we don’t know precisely to what extent or how rapidly. We cannot go back to old solutions because these won’t necessarily be available. For example, we know from the past that if an economy no longer operates with horses and carriages, it will no longer make buggy whips.
We need to expect a rapidly changing world. Complex appliances we own will fail, and we will not be able to obtain replacement parts. Many drugs imported from Asia will no longer be available. Homes purchased with debt will be affordable by fewer and fewer people. We need to be aware of these issues and change our expectations accordingly.
[4] Expect fewer goods and services to be available in the future, and money to have less value.
We are no longer moving to an ever-better world; we are moving (at least for a few years, perhaps much longer) to a shrinking world economy. Do not be surprised if home values drop and stock market values fall.
Saving money for the future makes less and less sense because fewer goods and services will be available to buy in the future. Even saving gold will not necessarily work around the problem of there being fewer goods to buy. For example, farmers and others involved in producing food will likely get food before others, to assure the continued production of food. This will leave less food for others to buy.
Electricity is likely to become intermittent in the years ahead. It would seem wise to stay away from purchasing condominiums that can only be accessed by elevators.
[5] Focus on the present, not the past or the future.
In our current world, great stress is placed on planning for the future. For example, workers are encouraged to save for retirement, and young people are encouraged to take courses that will allow them to work in a well-paying occupation for the long term. This plan assumes that that the upward trend we have seen in the past will continue. We also expect that governments will be able to make good on their promises.
But we really cannot expect this pattern to continue for the long term. The best we can hope for is that what we have right now will continue. If a family member is lost, the remaining members will need to pick themselves as quickly as possible and continue as best they can. This is one reason an extended family is helpful in Africa. Such an approach will increasingly be helpful elsewhere.
Fossil fuels have made retirement possible. As fossil fuel availability declines, retirement is less likely to be available. Everyone will need to work as long as they are physically available. Thus, saving for retirement becomes a less useful goal.
[6] Living in groups, particularly family groups, will increasingly make sense.
When things were going well, and wages of most educated people were high, it made sense for many people to live by themselves. If they had an argument with their spouse, picking up and leaving might sound like a sensible idea. The job of each spouse would be sufficient to pay for housing for each separately.
As the economy goes downhill, people will need to live in more compact housing in order to save on heating and transportation expenses. Multiple generations will increasingly need to live together. In the case of singles, they will increasingly need to band together. Government programs will likely not be sufficient to provide separate living arrangements for a mother with children or for elderly individuals in care homes.
[7] Young people should not go into debt for higher education.
At this point, the US has educated far too many people with college degrees (and beyond) relative to the number the economy can afford to hire. With declining complexity, adding more college-educated workers to the pool makes little sense.
A better choice for most young people is a short course or certificate program leading to a useful skill, such as appliance repair or becoming a licensed practical nurse. Apprentice programs may also make sense.
If families are wealthy enough to pay for their children’s education, a few people with advanced degrees will probably be needed. There may be some solutions to today’s problems that can be tackled by these individuals.
[8] People will need to be more flexible in their career choices.
As the economy changes, job availability will change. Demand for workers in many of today’s high-paying careers will likely decline. For example, fewer specialty physicians will be needed. There will also be a need for fewer college professors, fewer stock market analysts, and fewer computer programmers.
The most immediate new jobs will involve the demolition of infrastructure that is no longer needed, such as movie theaters, shopping malls, office buildings, and many homes. Some materials will likely be saved for reuse elsewhere. This may involve heavy labor. Smaller, more local stores or open-air markets may open. Jobs previously held by immigrants picking vegetables and fruit will also be available.
How does a person step down from a high-paid desk job to a low-paid manual labor job? I don’t know. But, somehow, we need to be thinking through this issue.
[9] People should focus on taking care of their own health through healthy eating and adequate exercise.
I expect the healthcare industry will be forced to change. One part of the problem will be fewer imported drugs and medical devices; another will be that most people will be less wealthy. They will not be able to afford the enormous costs of today’s bloated US healthcare system. Somehow, the system will need to shrink back.
Fortunately, there is a way that people can become healthier, despite lower spending. People can cook their own food, instead of buying over-processed food available from grocery stores and restaurants. They can eat less meat than the average American eats, and they can stay away from sugary soft drinks. They can exercise more. Part of this exercise can take place by walking to more local markets.
[10] Planting a modest garden, as far as this is possible, is probably a good idea.
Most people do not have sufficient land to plant very much in the way of food crops. In fact, a large share of my readers probably lives in apartment buildings. And most young people, attempting to live on their own, will not have space to grow food crops. The cost of buying land is likely to be high, and property taxes will need to be paid.
If space is available on property that is already owned, fruit trees that grow and bear fruit without the need for pesticide spraying are a good choice. These trees will likely take several years to get started. Potatoes are another reasonable choice, as are vegetables in general.
It is not clear to me that people who set out to operate a self-sufficient farm will have much success. They require a complex infrastructure to support them. Such farms are very vulnerable to robbers and generally don’t have good backup plans if something goes wrong, such as the farmer becoming injured. I wish these individuals success in their endeavors, but I am not optimistic that these farms will succeed beyond their first major setback. We need a bridge to sustainable agriculture, but it is hard for me to see one right now.
[11] Concluding Observation: Why standing back from conflict is a suitable approach.
Most people have a completely mistaken idea regarding what oil limits will look like. They assume that oil limits will lead to very high prices or long lines at gasoline stations. They fail to appreciate that oil limits will arrive at the same time as many other limits, including affordability limits. They also fail to understand that prices that are too low for producers will bring down oil production quickly. In fact, too low oil prices, rather than too high, are the issue the world is facing today.
What oil limits really lead to is lots of conflict: among nations, among political parties, among people who feel that it is unfair that they have spent a lot of money on an advanced education but cannot find a job that pays well enough to repay their education-related debt with interest. As limits of many kinds mentioned in the beginning of this post are hit, today’s economy will need to greatly shrink back in size. Many governmental structures that we expect today, including the EU, the World Bank, and the UN, may disappear.
We don’t know precisely what is ahead over the longer term. Some people believe a religious ending is likely. Other people think that some of the research that is currently underway may eventually lead to a solution. Still others are concerned that some parts of the world will need to shrink back to a very low level, perhaps similar to hunter-gathering, before these economies can grow again.
Regardless of how things play out, it is the physics of the self-organizing system that determines what happens next. No matter how offended we as individuals may feel regarding what some political party or politician has done or has not done, individuals are not able to fix the system, except to the extent that available inexpensive energy supply allows such a fix. This is why standing back from whatever conflict is taking place seems to me to be a suitable strategy.
Some links on the last day . Continuing stories , Closure of refinery in UK ,rice in Japan etc .
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-japans-rice-price-shock-lead-government-collapse-and-spark-global-bond-crisis
Garages run out of petrol after supply issues
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3vdn262wk2o
Oil and gas drilling licence surrendered at site
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce9xr3klzvno
No perma magnets from China
https://www.gbnews.com/news/labour-issued-national-security-warning-british-typhoon-production-grinds
800 jobs cut in Europe by Dow Chemicals .
https://hrme.economictimes.indiatimes.com/amp/news/industry/dow-chemical-to-lay-off-800-workers-across-europe-amid-cost-cutting-measures/122310976
Regarding, “Garages run out of petrol after supply issues,” it looks like this is related to the recent insolvency of a refiner:
The question becomes, “Can the government actually print enough money to hide this problem? Or will the pound sink so much that the price of petrol rises in response, and cuts back in oil demand in this way.”
Perhaps our commenter Tim has some insights on this. A chart shows that the wholesale price of rice has close to doubled in Japan.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-japans-rice-price-shock-lead-government-collapse-and-spark-global-bond-crisis
Will Japan’s Rice Price Shock Lead To Government Collapse And Spark A Global Bond Crisis?
It also says,
I don’t know how Japan keeps it going. Maybe this is what Trump is trying to do? To re organize the world order
Trump is trying to reorganise world order to his personal benefit…
hitler did the same thing…
they just use different menods…
the intention is the same.
It turns out that trying to save the US is closely related to Trump trying to save himself and his fellow oligarchs.
this is why trump will organise some kind of civil emergency, so he can declare martial law and cancel elections….either for 26 and 28, maybe both…
and the maganuts will cheer him on…
just like they did with hitler.
I am not Tim, but I could not avoid noticing that both Russia and the Middle East consume significantly more rice than in the past. The population of South Asia is still increasing. I think it is just a demand driven price increase. Few prefer wheat products if rice is available.
In the US, we have been told that US rice often has an arsenic problem. We shouldn’t eat too much of it, especially brown rice. Whatever rice we do eat, we should wash well.
Read comments .
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/07/07/bank-of-japan-balance-sheet-qt-%c2%a512-trillion-in-q2-%c2%a539-trillion-from-peak-to-%c2%a5717-trillion-sold-nearly-all-its-bank-stocks/
Speaking about 1930s,
the Business Plot should have succeeded, except for the traitor Smedley Butler.
No one cares about soldiers’ lives other than rednecks. I have said repeatedly that 5,000 – 10,000 deaths liberating Berlin should have been spent. That was paid 4 times in Korea, a country few Americans knew or cared of. About Korea, a couple Hydrogen bombs at Seoul and the Chinese Border Crossing would have been much cheaper.
With the Business Plot, the voices of the lesser peoples would have been silenced forever, and we would never have heard about the Third World.
Gail,
Do you think a post about the restructuring during the 1930’s would be of interest?
Dennis L.
Maybe. But at this time, I don’t know anything about it. I am not even sure how I would go about finding out. (ChatGBT?)
I daresay the German restructuring might be germane. And I shouldn’t think Norm would disagree with that either. 😂
That is a good point. I have been to a museum in Israel. It showed the real problem with inadequate food supply in Germany in the 1930s.
The museums (somewhere? Israel, Germany) were full of gold taken away from the Jews. They were the wealthy class.
Earlier, the witch trials of Salem, Massachusetts persecuted young wealthy witches, in bad times.
The issue seems to be related to, “If we don’t have enough to go around, tax the rich more.” In fact, kill off some of the rich. Maybe that will provide enough for everyone else.
“Earlier, the witch trials of Salem, Massachusetts persecuted young wealthy witches, in bad times.”
That is fascinating!
Now, I’m betting that the ionstigators of charges were the ‘poor witches’.
Instead of being envious, they should have simply tried to cast better spells.
Musk’s 400Bn isnt actual money.
Its the stock valuation of his businesses…
Musk might have only 1 bn, probably less down the back of his many sofas…
therefore, any move to ”divide up” his corporate wealth among even 300m Americans would bring about its instant collapse.
Its value would then be zero…and nobody would get anything…
you can apply that to just about any business..it’s a mistake that’s been made for centuries…there are plenty of examples to read up on.
The corporate wealth thing is something we collectively created…we can’t backpedal on it because dont like it….
This is something people don’t understand: “Musk’s 400Bn isnt actual money.”
It is a function of all the money created by debt that has been added to the system. It is not actually spendable on goods and services, because we are reaching a bottleneck in actual goods and services.
restructuring the 30s in germany was done by borrowing money primarily to build wartoys and roads to run them on.
it was ultimately sustainable only by expanding outwards to grab the resources of weaker nations.
it worked until they declared war on the usa…
the japanese used exactly the same method of economic sustainability…which ultimately collapsed too.
Very to the point , Norman…
The economics minister, Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht, was largely responsible on enabling the Nannies in this endeavor. He had a falling out with Hitter and was replaced by another, Funk. He was asked to stay on in another role to make appear everything was fine between them.
He was brought to trail at Nuremberg along with Funk.
There I recall him placing some blame on the rise of Hitter on the Western Allies because of the restrictions placed …””All we wanted was to trade and be able to live, that was taken away”…
He was given a slap on the hand and later became a top economics advisor to many nations after the war.
https://www.amazon.com/Hitlers-Banker-Hjalmar-Greeley-Schacht/dp/0751526665#:~:text=HITLER'S%20BANKER%20is%20a%20full,of%20a%20devastated%20Weimar%20Republic.
IMHO, such a study might be of historical interest, but not sure it would be of much benefit in today’s context. Even deflation/depression vs hyperinflation analyses become less helpful. Back then, the huge energy and raw materials reserves could overcome parasitic extraction by the elites. The rising tide floated all boats. No promise of such pie today. It has been consumed. We will increasingly be fighting over crust and crumbs. We are now living on the other side of the curve. Fiat, gold, crypto, USD, stawk certificates etc. It does not matter in the end if there is not enough being produced, leaving nothing to buy, and lack of food is the end game. Don’t worry, be happy.
Elon wants to balance the budget. So do I. But he does not have the power to do what is needed.
1) cut all government pension by 50% federal, state, city, school
2) take away the private air wing that each retired general and admiral are given for life
3) limit medicare, limit medicaid
4) close all military bases outside the US
5) cut off free college, free medical for all Israelis
6) take ownership of all US companies, lands that are owned by non Americans, establish a sovereign wealth fund for all Americans flat regardless of need
7) end government paying for education
8) end Amtrak, NASA
9) get military spending below 400 billion per year, remember the department of energy is just a cover for military nuclear spending
10) no US military in South America, Africa, Asia, Middle East, Europe, Australia
11) no military aid, no aid of any kind to any and all countries
Kennedy was killed for far less.
I think you might have to tone this down, to get any approval.
“7) End government paying for education”
All education, including Kindergarten through 8th grade? There might be some push back.
The government can give every child an AI teacher. Better each church can give an AI teacher to every child. Every corporation can give an AI teacher to its future employees.
You do realize this has a snowball’s chance in hell of passing.
Hyperinflation is almost baked into the cake now, if you want to balance the budget get a time machine and go back 20 yrs it might make a difference then.
hyperinflation is possible this decade, more probable into the 2030s or 2040s.
but many years of moderate inflation would probably be enough to keep the system from tipping into hyperinflation.
the degrowth process may continue for a few decades, and money will devalue severely with “only” moderate inflation compounding annually.
degrowth makes it certain that the average person will have ever more severe affordability issues, and we will get ever poorer for the next few decades.
compound moderate inflation might be necessary to ward off hyperinflation.
I think whether of not there is hyperinflation depends upon whether governments can stay in power to print more money.
If the “United States” falls apart, or is overthrown, then new currency will be issued by whatever groupings of states stick together. These new governmental units will not inherit the government programs of the current government.
Unless the pensioners are wiped out no way to stop the collapse
EIA has posted a figure for world crude oil production last March (83.580 mb/d) — this is 1.2% below their current maximum figure for monthly world oil production (84.592 mb/d, for November, 2018)
With sagging oil prices since last March ( http://oil-price.net/ ), will oil extraction stay up near that level? ( https://davecoop.net/seneca )
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1740787200000
How is it that EIA’s figure for last March jumped so much? (It’s their highest monthly figure since December, 2018.)
“EIA has posted a figure for world crude oil production last March (83.580 mb/d) — this is 1.2% below their current maximum figure for monthly world oil production (84.592 mb/d, for November, 2018)”
yes the decline has been gradual and slow, though it will surely accelerate, probably in the 2030s.
that is the trend for the degrowth process, though the coming decades of degrowth will be punctuated by severe down years with many other slightly down years or even flat years.
I tried to look to see what was going on. US oil production was up a little. OPEC oil production was up a little. I am sure that there were several other places that had a bit higher production than previously. But there was no one area the stood out, with higher production in March 2025, as far as I could see.
The name is important, marketing first:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/musk-says-america-party-is-formed-us-2025-07-05/
We have the same in Slovakia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovakia_(political_party)
With less energy to go around, it seems likely that we will “splintering” in many ways. It may be that there are more political parties. It will be harder to get agreement on anything.
IMHO this has less to do with energy than the fact that Elon was snubbed and didn’t get his expected ROI from supporting Trump and subsidies are being removed.
You forget that polling showed the great majority of voters did not want a Biden/Harris vs Trump false binary election choice.
The truth is never the mainstream narrative, which, in this case, is that Musk is doing this because of money.
FWIW, but along the lines of the subject of this post, a Finnish doomer/prepper blogger sums up the learnings of his long journey in one post here:
https://skogslars.blogg.se/2024/april/the-endpoint-of-my-blogging-preppersurvivalist-information-and-resource-box.html
His advice includes things like having many warm blankets and warm clothes and shoes, but also mosquito netting so you can sleep outside when it’s too hot and there’s no electricity for fans and air conditioning.
And then he has this sobering advice:
“Remember especially much to prepare spiritually. Prepare for death, prepare to meet your God, whatever that is. . . . .
In the End Times, it’s even more important to make friends with death than with farmers, people with allotments, rich people with survival bunkers or survivalists, preppers and hippies.
If you make friends with poverty, which is also a great advantage, you also make friends with death, automatically, because death is the greatest poverty and nakedness that is.”
most people overrate the blip of time between their birth and death, relative to the 13.7 billion year old Universe and the vastly more billions in “the future”.
my six and a half decades have gone by faster than I can snap my fingers.
my remaining months/years will be another blip in time.
this is the true nature of time.
Zorch did a song a decade ago We All Die Young, someone else thought of the same song title.
it’s nothing to worry about.
and hey, BAU tonight, baby!
It’s not the true nature of time if it’s just your unimportant opinion, david. At least remain consistent in your nonchalant opinions otherwise they cease to even be opinions, don’t they. So then what do you have left
Beware the multidecadal slippery slope. As we can see the results are none too pretty.
you will enter the nothingness of eternal death long before the end of this century.
but that’s just my opinion.
have a nice day.
*snap*
It’s only nothingness to elitism. see your pattern.
in your opinion.
*snap*
If you have a few spare minutes, David, please give this one another listen. (as you must have listened to it time after time before.) It’s absolutely timeless. I often ponder the implications of Water’s lyrics while thrilling to the screaming and screeching of Gilmour’s guitar.
7 minutes of my fleeting precious time.
looks like it’s just about time’s up on the 20 days for these comments.
Don’t click that link above. It will cause your device to download a blank document!
wait till youve had 9 decades worth…
right now I’m wondering why I wasnt chosen as the dalai Lama 90 years ago
tagio:
You are trying to live alone if I read you correctly. It takes a group to survive and that group must have trust. Two I often mention: Amish and Hassidic Jews. Not familiar with the latter, but in the Amish cross too many and you are shunned, on your own.
Ideal size seems to be around 200, Dunbar’s number.
A church has much to recommend it and when the plate comes around give a little more than average but not so much as to embarrass others. Metaphor: the nail that sticks up gets hammered down.
Dennis L.
This headline seems a little strange. Perhaps it is a sign that Xi is on his way out as a leader in China [not mentioned in article, but something we have seen speculation about]. Perhaps it has some BRICs significance.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/analyzing-xis-absence-latest-brics-summit
Analyzing Xi’s Absence From The Latest BRICS Summit
The implications is that major pieces of BRICS are peeling off. Although I do not see another way for China to progress economically as much as possible. In short I expect continuity like in the US.
It seems to me that you may be right. With less energy, it is harder for any group to stick together.
Of course, there may be other contributing factors, as well.
The sudden conclusions and closure of the Epstein files case by Kash Patel, Pam Bondi, Dan Bongino – that he committed suicide, that there was (no longer) any client list, and that there was no blackmail in my opinion is the final straw that the entire political system is corrupt, from top to bottom. YOU CANNOT BELIEVE A WORD ANYONE SAYS. It is the quintessential irony of the internet, once touted as the new “information age.” We now live in the disinformation age. I find myself skipping over more and more articles and have dropped 90% of the podcasts.
This is a sad situation, but it seems to be increasingly true. We live in the age of disinformation.
I agree. I am going to move some crypto out of there that I don’t really need, just because. This is too ridiculous, too weird, too corrupt. Hopeful thought: one of the iranian missiles finally delivered justice to Epstein.
For those with eyes to see, MAGA was always a transitional controlled opposition politics in service of continuity of government. The end goal of a trustworthy, forward-looking national socialism will not be interested in prosecuting past governance because that will be counterproductive to its singular mission of navigating a post- capitalist world. As I’ve said ad nauseum, it will be structurally antisemitic but not sociologically so.
Welcome to the Elites’ Disappearing Act.
I suspect it is because Putin isn’t attending. BRICS still needs to set up its alternative payment system due to the weaponisation of the dollar.
If everyone is sending second-level attendees, that tells us something about how highly valued this organization really is.
The lack of a new alternative payment plan (other than the one using stable coin) is likely an issue, too.
Poor Pepe!
It is also because Xi does not want to be with Modi without Putin. It’s understandable.
So said by Mercouris in today’s Duran episode. Makes sense.
The India-Paki spat, initially created by the West, became a China-India proxy war once it took to the air. Better let things cool off but India is in a bind because it will never have the weapon quality that China has.
Correct drb . Putin has a ICC arrest warrant and it would create a problem/ embarrassment for Lula so he refrained . Putin also did not do the BRICS summit in South Africa although Ramaphosa assured him of security . that is why Vlad is a statesman . Xi wants to avoid Modi . Modi is supposed to retire by 17th September when he is 75 and is playing all sort of domestic politics mischief to stay in power . Economically and militarily India is no match for China . Xi would have nothing to discuss with Modi . India has aa USD 100 Billion trade deficit with China and is bleeding . Xi has already extremely strong trade ties with Brazil , South Africa and the new entrants Indonesia , KSA , UAE .
I frankly don’t have much faith in BRICS. The main reason for my lack of faith is… China.
Many online sources and even several supposedly well-informed analysts all want to show you a glowing picture of the Middle Kingdom, some of the claims made being extravagant to the point of being ridiculous. Her economy is booming, her people are all living secure and prosperous lives, she will overtake the West and indeed the rest of the world economically and technologically and what-else-have-youly in a few years etc etc. (A recent video on Youtube even tells us they’ve created an artificial sun, or are close to creating one, which will solve the world’s energy problems — ho, ho.) Well, there are many other online sources I came across which paint a very different picture of China — and most of them are in Chinese. Large portions of her populace, particularly graduates, are unemployed and frankly struggling to make ends meet. Streets and cities are becoming empty of people. Local businesses are dying in droves. Foreign businesses are fleeing for their lives (and many Chinese, too), the latest being MacDonald’s. And the amount of FDI (foreign direct investment) received by China plunged from US$168 billion in 2021 to just US$4.3 billion in 2024 — the lowest since 1992. This was supposed to have been officially admitted by the CCP. I shall assume all this wasn’t made up by ‘China-haters’.
It is a well-known fact that most socialist regimes like to spend — no, not spend, WASTE — large amounts of their resources on PR, as opposed to genuine development. China is no exception. (One of the CCP’s favorite moves is to BRIBE people into blowing the trumpet for them, especially those who have academic credentials etc.) That’s why I view as BS all the positive accounts regarding China. (A wumao would probably think at this point that I must therefore be pro-America. Poor logic.) Socialist regimes nearly always treat their subjects like dirt, to be exploited, manipulated and lied to. It’s not for no reason that Ho Ching, wife of Lee Hsien Loong (currently Singapore’s senior minister), indirectly referred to Xi as a MAFIA BOSS. The fat, ugly man has in fact even seriously jeopardized the future prospects of many in the CCP itself — hence all the infighting there. None of this makes China look like anything but a LIABILITY, if you ask me. And not a liability for BRICS only.
Italy joined BRICS in 2019, but left towards the end of 2023. It can’t be without a reason. Sorry, not all reads lead to Beijing.
Haven’t been here for a while, by the way. Hope all has been well for everyone.
Thanks for your insights.
China is clearly a big issue. It has grown to be the world’s largest industrial power. It manufactures an incredible amount of goods and processes a huge amount of ore of different kinds. But we do get widely diverging reports on how China is doing. And, while China’s coal supply grew rapidly for a while, it has been much more constrained recently. There have been many stories saying that the price is not high enough for producers. China has a lot of problems for that reason.
They are short of energy like everyone else. They caught the EU in energy consumption per person a few years ago, but they have not moved ahead. In short their energy consumption has become flat. Hence stagnation. Already two years ago they were stagnating. But the USA and the West in general are declining fast and this is why they, and not China, are looking for war as soon as feasible. They understand that the longer they wait the worse it will be.
” Italy joined BRICS in 2019, but left towards the end of 2023. It can’t be without a reason. Sorry, not all reads lead to Beijing. ”
Incorrect . Italy did not join BRICS it wanted to participate in the OBOR ( One Belt One Road) program which is a Chinese initiative . Anyway Italy is a vassal of NATO so what can you expect .
As to the other stuff you have listed wrong with China some is true and some untrue . Internet is full of fake news but no one can ignore the rise of China . How is all the propaganda different from the West ? 800 million lifted out of poverty in 30 years . Consider this against India where 800 million now survive on 5 Kg of wheat / rice per person/ per month . Who told USA — You want war then you will get war and we are ready .Who has defied all sanctions by the West placed on VNZ , Iran , Russia , Cuba etc ? Only China . You can love China , you can hate China but you can’t ignore China . BRICS is an instrument against the West but there are other tools also like SCO , RCEP , ASEAN etc . RCEP ( Regional Cooperation Economic Program ) is a common market like the EU comprising of all ASEAN .
“According to the data from the report, and as illustrated by the graph above, OECD countries in 2024 used 3% less energy than in 2014. Meanwhile their GDP grew from 52 trillion USD in 2014 to 81 trillion in 2023 (last year’s data is not yet available). The two doesn’t add up, however. Pray tell, how on Earth could an economic bloc’s gross domestic product grow by 56% in 9 years, while their energy use actually shrank by 3%? “?
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/the-tale-of-two-energy-transitions-5a4006dca927
The way energy growth in the OECD (Rich countries group) grows is through more debt and more financialization. More manufacturing of actual goods gets offshored to lower-income countries.
The connection between GDP growth and energy consumption is only for the world as a whole, not for the sub-parts that operate on very different bases. China uses both lots of debt and lots of energy consumption.
All of this growth is, of course, temporary. How it goes down is a big question.
Well, long time ago, I remember reading about the Eastern bloc countries dominated by the then Soviet Union. Why it still stands out in my memory is because the writer explained “official reports” announced gains in the economy and the betterment of living standards in say East Germany.
Everyone knew it was BS, the political billboards, news broadcasts, rallies, parades, ect. The empty shelves and long lines in stores told them the truth.
Also, they knew “over the wall” things were much different in the West.
We should expect the same here, already seeing less merchandise in stores like Target and Dollar Tree. The available goods are either more expensive or unaffordable (ie new cars or homes ), have been shrunk or cheapened to crap guality.
Yes, the stock markets are at all time highs, that’s just “paper” and it is obvious, it’s being “paper overed”.
Yes, the 800 page “Big. Beautiful Bill” just is another promo
Read George Kaplan’s comment in today’s post
7th July 2025 Today’s Round-Up of Economic News
by Panopticon | Jul 7, 2025 | Economy | 6 comments
https://climateandeconomy.com/2025/07/07/7th-july-2025-todays-round-up-of-economic-news/
That may give you are different picture of the wall we are facing.
I went into a Target in May and on the counter wall almost half of the items were missing.
“According to the data from the report, and as illustrated by the graph above, OECD countries in 2024 used 3% less energy than in 2014.”
OECD is very near to or actually into degrowth.
the rest of the world is probably still growing slightly.
global degrowth should be unable to be hidden by 2030.
degrowth will get severe in the 2030s.
Keep hiding it for 5 more years! I don’t know how you do that in such a large span
There are so many leaning utility poles in my suburb. Why?
A “physics” or existential question?
cool.
if a telephone pole falls and no human is nearby to hear it, did it make a sound?
also do they lean right or left?
I’ve seen areas where new utility poles have been placed leaning against the older poles which still support all the wires.
what’s up with that?
Didn’t know utility poles took political views
There are fas*ist poles and libt*ard poles. And if you walk to the other side of the pole they will switch.
is this true in Poland?
They have been known to switch, but nothing like the Ukies. The current world champs are the Turks and other Turkic nations. I think they will get punished eventually.
anyway we can do without the polemics.
Sounds bipolar
Sounds polarising
we should do a poll.
what would Karl Polanyi say?
economic anthropologists recommend polygamy to keep the economy going?
finally some good news.
finally I agree with drb
technological development is entirely dependent on energy surpluses…and the means to use those surpluses…..
nothing else
Norman and drb, you two are usually poles apart.
It takes funds from some organization (utility company or government) to hire workers with oil-powered machines to fix these poles. Fixing these poles can be postponed, just as fixing ailing bridges can be postponed.
At some point, leaning utility poles will tip over and bridges will collapse. As oil and other energy supplies become less available, these postponable expenses will lead to collapse. There will be no way to fix them, as cheap-to-produce oil supplies deplete.
‘You’ve heard some of that already, but this is what jumped out at us. When we saw these numbers, we’re like, “What is this?”
In ’21, you see 270,000 people, goes all the way to 2.1 million in ’24. These are non-citizens that are getting Social Security Numbers.’?
https://forbiddennews.substack.com/p/democrats-handed-out-millions-of
This is post that is mostly a transcript between Elon Musk and an informant from the US government, trying to explain what has been going on. The informant says that under Biden, a huge number of immigrants were able to come into the government, get social security cards, and go to work. They were signed up for Medicaid and other government programs. Some of these people even voted in elections.
He says that this system encouraged traffickers to bring immigrants from all over the world. These traffickers would charge between $500 and $20,000 for transporting each would-be immigrant through Mexico and past the US border. The catch is that these people often didn’t have the money for this trip. These people would become indentured servants. They could be blackmailed. Human trackers are said to have made between $13 and $15 billion from this activity.
This could be true, I am afraid. Immigration numbers have been very high, recently. There have been stories about people coming from all of the world, and entering the US through Mexico (or sailing up further in California, and arriving by boat).
Since the traffickers are also Latinos, it seems that their entrepreneurial class is following the same historical arc as the Western entrepreneurial class. start with slaves, for 400+ years. advance to usury, then try to monopolize natural resources.
Generally, I take what Jim Rickards says with a big grain of salt, but I think he is correct on this one. AI just doesn’t fix my roof or put food on the table. It’s more of a globalist tool for control of the masses. A Trojan horse to disguise the introduction of digital ID, digital money, control of electricity allocation (smart meters), and medical records.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/rickards-superintelligence-will-never-arrive
One interesting paragraph:
I was thinking about US and China, instead of US and Russia. China’s approach seems to use less energy. But Rickards is right about energy being important.
Natural gas being used to support AI and cryptocurrency is not something I had thought about. A functioning economy, otherwise, would be needed, as would be the available computer chips. I still think China would be a better AI competitor for the US.
That sentence is unexplicable. China is the largest producer of coal in the world. They are also the producers of the best AI in the world, which means, the most energy efficient AI in the world.
Further, a whole range of AI applications are military in nature, and reside in relatively small computers on the weapon itself. The race there is for the smartest coding.
Otherwise, AI is simply a way for total surveillance and the destitution of millions of white collar workers. There is very little that AI can do other than destroy jobs.
Agree on China and also on the white collar point. If AI does indeed have a structural function beyond its bubble and its ability to make people think there’s future growth, then it would be the medium term goal of returning the deglobalizing economy to a much cheaper, non-consumer blue collar economy. The energy saved by eliminating the free-spending bourgeoise class can go towards other things including powering the efficient decentralized Chinese-type AI.
I agree with you, Hubbs. One point Rickards makes is,
“computers may be able to find information faster than humans, but they cannot find any information that does not already exist. In other words, the machines are not really thinking and are not really creative. They just connect dots faster than we do.”
An, of course, they can connect the dots in the wrong way, and not recognize that they are doing so.
AI can be totalitarian like you characterize it, or it can be populist, like how Gabbard is using AI to comb through the JFK files. How it will be used depends entirely on how it is able to be used. Totalitarianism is not possible because it represents increasing complexity during energy collapse. Therefore AI as a tool for totalitarianism is not possible.
The Great Reset was a misdirection play, and is now ancient history.
The sign of the times.
I am now getting pop-up messages from HP trying to get me to buy a new 4-in -1 printer, scanner, copier, fax machine because “parts may no longer be available” for my current model which I have used intermittently over the ten years since I bought it. Maybe100 jobs total between scanning and printing. Up to now, they had been trying to sell me a belated service contract. Now it’s flat out fear mongering.
Yes spare parts will become a problem for lots of things, but the reality is, as Charles Hughes Smith says on his “Of Two Minds” we live in a landfill economy and it’s the crapification of the US economy. In other words, when my current all-in-one fails even after very light use, only then may I buy another, but I doubt it. My document printing days are over. A really pathetic attempt by HP to front-load sales. They must be hurting.
Services is where the money is at. Manufacturing high quality products and providing parts for them for years or decades is seen as unprofitable and benefits the common person. Can’t have that. Most businesses are “lowkey” (current slang) hostile to their customers. I’m not sure why this hostility hasn’t erupted into open conflict since what is good for HP is often harmful to the average customer. Maybe the average customer just isn’t aware of the hostility, isn’t aware that HP acts against their best interest. The social conflict theory is mostly Marxist nonsense but it does have some validity.
We have discovered that the product we thought we bought (say, Fitbit watch), now requires a monthly contract to keep in service.
It does not have to be the whole nation that has trust, that has honor, it can be a sub community. We need to stop trying to boil the ocean and be happy with our local defense of sanity and honor. As Gail says smaller, more local.
Local communities do need some set of rules that everyone adheres to. Otherwise, the police force has an overwhelming problem keeping citizens in line. Democrats have (more or less) figured out that just ignoring the problem doesn’t work. Theft and other misbehavior is especially a problem if society includes a lot of very poor people, who cannot earn an adequate living, no matter how hard they try.
It is possible that the world might muddle along, with increasingly lower standards, for quite a while. How long, who knows.
There are no more opportunity for the young except for top 1% or so. The school of hard knocks closed long ago. Younger people who compete for the increasingly dwindling number of entry level jobs never advance past it ; only those who know someone in a company enters higher echelon.
Those who graduated from universities nobody had heard about can forget getting hired by companies known to the people.
China muddle through this kind of system for 2,000 years until in 1839 the British warships broke such arrangement.
So, once this kind of hierarchy takes places, only a very unlikely space alien invasion will break such social construct.
I do not pay too much attention to tech or energy news. I mostly concentrate in social construct, which I think is beyond salvation.
The Honest Sorcerer is implying that the profit motive, i.e., financialization through outsourcing, is accelerating our drawdown of our fossil fuels.
Maybe the Chinese strategy of delivering energy via ultrahigh voltage lines (more efficient with less transmission losses than the US conventional grid) from the source of coal in the north and west to the population centers in the south and east has merit but looking beyond that, is there, “gulp,” a role for government controls via taxation after all? By taxation I mean the elimination of deductions allowed for offshoring. Trump may be right on this after all, but he does not see the reason from a pure energy analysis.
I get it that capitalism is still the best system to maximize shareholder profit to encourage more development, economies of scale, and theoretically lower cost to consumers, etc. In theory.
But special tax laws and our fractional reserve debt-based fiat monetary system with a Central Bank to bail out those who make bad decisions, have actively increased the energy production costs of goods and services. Financialization, favorable tax laws, and “deductions” subvert the basic premise that goods and services should be produced at the lowest cost possible to minimize the world aggregate energy and materials. Of course, this is pie-in-the-sky dreaming. Corporatism’s control of our government will never allow this.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-tale-of-two-energy-transitions?
In this post, B is talking about data from the new Statistical Review of World Energy Report. I didn’t like this post by “B” as well as some others. He seems to be going in a lot of different directions. His conclusion says:
Conclusion
I plan to write about a few charts based on data from the new 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy in my next post.
“The rest of the world still enjoys some real economic growth, but that’s bound to end soon, as all easy-to-get deposits of fossil fuels deplete and get increasingly replaced by more energy intensive to get resources. How this shift in the balance of power will unfold is anyone’s guess, but one thing seems to be sure: we will consume a lot of energy to make all that popcorn before the curtain finally falls.”
yup there is still “some real economic growth, but that’s bound to end soon”.
good quote.
the surplus energy flowing through IC is declining ever so gradually and slowly.
but the decline very well could accelerate, probably in the 2030s.
I know we are all about oil, etc., but my guess is what will determine our fate is how we get along with one another.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/make-america-great-again-start-here
Trust is very important and much of that has been lost.
No solutions from this fellow; too much is a hustle now.
Dennis L.
“Challenging orthodoxies of both the left and right, Fukuyama examines a wide range of national cultures in order to divine the underlying principles that foster social and economic prosperity. Insisting that we cannot divorce economic life from cultural life, he contends that in an era when social capital may be as important as physical capital, only those societies with a high degree of social trust will be able to create the flexible, large-scale business organizations that are needed to compete in the new global economy.”
About Francis Fukuyama’s book Trust: The Social Virtues and The Creation of Prosperity Paperback – June 18, 1996
Christian groups like the Bruderhoff have community values. Jewish groups like Hasids have community values enforced by Rabbinical courts that actually function unlike the government courts.
Challenging orthodoxies of both the left and right, Fukuyama examines a wide range of national cultures in order to divine the underlying principles that foster social and economic prosperity. Insisting that we cannot divorce economic life from cultural life, he contends that in an era when social capital may be as important as physical capital, only those societies with a high degree of social trust will be able to create the flexible, large-scale business organizations that are needed to compete in the new global economy.
about
Trust: The Social Virtues and The Creation of Prosperity Paperback – June 18, 1996
by Francis Fukuyama
The Christian Buderhoff Communities have values.
There is a community with its own court system that has values.
can’t use the word or WP censors
You trust Fukuyama ? An idiot who wrote ” The End of History ” . I got a bridge to sell you . Interested ?
https://www.google.be/books/edition/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man/2Afi-lKXbZMC?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover
kids will say the damnedest things, and adults will write the damnedest things for money. He sure got paid handsomely for that.
Regaining trust is what the engineered national socialisms are for. Remember that all herders are ultimately surfing natural law. Surfing the ecological lay of the land. That is what I do. That is what drb and his men do. That is what Jan does. And that is what we must analogously do in the political realm, in order to keep up with the Hand’s herding techniques for surfing Collapse.
Reminds me of this performance..
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TSYV-nEE300&pp=ygUaaSB0cnVzdGVkIHlvdSBhbmR5IGthdWZtYW7SBwkJwQkBhyohjO8%3D
A cover of this song is on an iPhone commercial now. Wild.
Charles Hugh Smith says, ” “capitalism” only functions as advertised if it is embedded in a moral order, something Adam Smith understood.”
He talks about today’s crazy system:
Churches can easily move too far away from teaching the rules nearly all religions have. “Do unto others, and you would have the do unto you.” (Or the silver rule, “Don’t do unto others, what you would not want them to do to you.)
China’s foreign minister told the European Union that China cannot allow Russia to lose the war in Ukraine, as the US focus on China would then increase. He also said that the war would be over if China had provided military support to Russia and that it was in China’s interests to have the US tied militarilly in Ukraine.
The Asia Pacific region has experienced peace and prosperity that last decades as the US has neglected the region. This is now coming to an end as the US Secretary of Defense told its Asian proxies to arm them selves for a war with China and stop trade with China.
Do you have a reference? China is even safer by helping Russia defeat the enemy.
China definitely provides support to Russia, but it is more in products that are needed for weapons, and also by withdrawing products to the West. so economic instead of military.
Rare earths may be a long term play, but the recent embargo on certain drones is already having an effect or will soon have an effect. consider also the huge increase in optical fiber consumption by Russia in the last 6 months, which is proving so significant that the war is now being fought almost without tanks. It is possible that China is supporting N. Korea also economically.
The story seems to have originated from the SCMP
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-tells-eu-it-cannot-afford-russian-loss-ukraine-war-sources-say?module=inline&pgtype=article
When I check the Foreign Ministry, no mention, but it does leave a fair bit of room with the final words
“The two sides also exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the Iranian nuclear issue.”
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjbzhd/202507/t20250703_11664496.html
Talking to the dimmer than dim Kallas must have been excruciating for someone of Wang Yi’s standing.
“This is what the US cancer data currently looks like.”?
https://x.com/Doctor_I_am_The/status/1931843015372407027
These are the charts I have seen. Treatments for cancer have been more and more successful.
Pfas are a class of about 15,000 compounds that are dubbed “forever chemicals” because they do not naturally break down, and accumulate in the human body and environment. The chemicals are linked to a range of serious health problems like cancer, liver disease, kidney issues, high cholesterol, birth defects and decreased immunity.
Sludge is a mix of human and industrial waste that is a byproduct of the wastewater treatment process
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/04/pfas-pollution-sewage-wastewater
Landmark US study reveals sewage sludge and wastewater plants tied to Pfas pollution
New study finds troubling levels of Pfas near wastewater plants and sludge sites in 19 states
We have an indication of very widespread problems and significant exposures that people are going to be facing,” said Kelly Hunter Foster, an environmental attorney with the Waterkeeper Alliance, which conducted the study.
That should keep the medical industry in business curing cancer
Maybe. But the medical establishment has been doing better and better at curing cancer.
Maybe, but still.lacking in detecting, many cases on YouTube
An avid triathlete and marathon runner, Jessica faced a shocking diagnosis of stage 4 colorectal cancer that had spread to her lungs, spine, and rib. It took a year of pelvic pain and misdiagnoses, including an ovarian cyst, before discovering the truth.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OJchGiR3nnY&pp=ygUPQSBwYXRpZW50IHN0b3J5
Dame happened to.my Sistet, thought she was too young at age 33 for cook cancer, which is on thevrose
Watched Jurassic World Rebirth yesterday. It was all Askenazi Jew actors and actresses telling each other stories of how excellent they are at killing and how massive the money they make is. The lead Scarlett Johansson has an ear full of diamond jewelry 20 or so pieces. She tells a tragic story about her dear friend a fellow hired killer who was in Yemen plying his trade and the locals can you believe it killed him. Our life is so hard we are treated so badly. Much of the garb looks IDF.
In the first Jurassic Park only on character was Jewish.
Well, maybe Gaza reloaded is a better movie for you.
Zero anglo saxon people.
They are great entertainers, Ed, just look at Sammy Davis Junior, he was Jewish …
They say Hollywood was always risk adverse. They say that most movies made were retellings of stories everyone was familiar with. They say that most profitable movies were franchises based on intellectual property that demonstrated profitability in the past.
” Much of the garb looks IDF.” Subliminal programming. It was always there.
The message is clear.
Don’t complain. Support the most important people in human history.
If we have another 2008 like moment; how will government respond? Who will buy all the debt and how much more will be piled up! Based on inflation adjusted numbers it will have to somewhere in the 12 to 16 trillion range!!! Or more!!! Can they handle that? Unless people think there is no way we can have a recession in the next decade 🙄
An awfully lot of banks look like they could collapse, if the current debt bubble starts defaulting. Falling home prices could be part of it. Also, falling prices of commercial buildings and farms, and defaults on auto loans.
The US government supposedly guarantees an awfully lot of debt (directly or indirectly). I haven’t looked at inflation-adjusted numbers, but it would seem like the bailouts now would be totally unmanageable.
What allowed the U.s to pull out of 2008 was a massive transfer to China . They were a massive expansive economy. Where are they going to find that this time??? David and others think we have 20 years but are they saying no recession or depression in that 20 years? Because that’s what it would take to get us to that finish line!!!
hopefully David planted some potatoes and dug a root cellar.
It’s pretty hard to imagine the US economy going into a “technical” recession while the Federal government is doing $2.5+ trillion in annual deficit spending.
Interesting point. One assumption or the other is likely wrong. The Big Beautiful Bill is difficult to evaluate, especially alongside everything else going on. Perhaps, the US (at least) will stay away from recession for a while longer. Or the huge forecast deficit will disappear.
Why would the huge forecast deficit decrease????
I think we are going back to zero rates and QE. Too many people cannot take a debt deflation. I think hyperinflation is our only way out.
Really hyper inflation? So the average house would be worth 10 million? Wages would have to go up a lot!!! That didn’t go to good for Germany
They are probably willing inflate the current monetary systems to where money is worthless in order to preserve the system. They don’t care about the average person–just the system.
The reserve currency is the lynchpin of the system. Deflation increases the value/power of the reserve currency. Hyperinflation ends the reserve currency, thus ending the system. Deflation makes the reserve currency less fiat and more standardized to the underlying collapsing energy base, enabling the Fed to better maintain monetary traction with available policy in service of MPP. (Inflation standardizes the reserve currency to the energy base during growth of the energy base.) Deflation financially benefits well-prepared Elites who are savers, and financially hurts the indebted masses. Hyperinflation always happens relative to a reserve currency, and there is no reserve currency relative to the dollar.
Wow! Well said
The loss of military supremacy is what could end the U.S. dominated economic world order. Once America cannot force countries to accept the USD or defend trade routes the u.s. based global financial system would collapse. As long as America has the ability to maintain international order, It can have an absolutely worthless currency.
As for the elites/ investor class, they seem to be immune to economic cycles as a group. I’ve been told by the media that the rich have been getting richer in Inflationary and deflationary periods. I’ve been told that the rich were getting richer during the 2000s housing bubble, and the inflationary period following the lockdowns we are currently in. I’m being told that the elite/investor class benefit from higher interest rates because they are the creditors.
I was also told that the rich were getting richer during the “Great Recession” where inflation went down and low interest rates were all the rage.
You would think lower interest rates would result in a lower return on investments/lending but no. I was told they were getting richer.
@Grossmanite
The US economy is probably heading for hyperinflation (as I predicted in 2018)
The hyperinflation was a deliberate policy. It is, imo, if I can’t win, everyone loses.
For America, capitalism is fine until other countries start doing better at it than America. Rather than actually improve its competitiveness,* America pivots towards protectionism, sabotage and war. It looks like everyone forgot Reagan approved of tariffs on Japanese imports because they were selling much better than American made goods.
*immigration could have been used to circumvent the high wage disadvantage but its used so rich people have cheap domestic servants.
Zero rates are rates knock knock knocking on deflation’s heavenly door. So going back to them is going back towards deflation. And QE and deflation are not mutually exclusive. In fact, QE is more effective during deflation than during hyperinflation when it has zero effectiveness because pushing on a string (the tractive force of the money supply) is still more effective than when the gone string has frayed into a million little feathers blowing in the wind. The only reason that historical hyperinflationary depressions may seem less severe than deflationary depressions is because the former always took place relative to an external reserve currency that it could collapse into. Hyperinflation of the reserve currency itself is the worst case scenario. Were it to happen going forward, the whole civilization would undergo chaotic collapse and we’d pretty much all be dead. What the Hand must do is carefully transition the Federal Reserve note over to a new public greenback currency, in both digital and paper. That’s what dollar deflation is for – making the dollar count manageable again for the transition to the greenback. Eliminating off-shored Eurodollars in favor of stablecoins will mitigate the catastrophic effects of other currencies’ hyperinflations against the dollar, and also significantly help the US continue to service it’s ballooning debt with the increased demand for dollar denominated stablecoins.
The Hand knows that the US needs to be propped up for as long as possible, and at almost all costs.
Here is a view . It is happening but as is said ” collapse is not evenly distributed ” . First victims of de dollarisation .
https://medium.com/inknest/the-first-ever-dedollarisation-cut-to-the-american-lifestyle-is-here-60805c6de4d7
That is because they found a bunch of 19 years old people still receiving SS. I do not think it is relevant, just a minor victory by DOGE. Medicare savings are potentially larger.
I agree. The step down in payments is a temporary effect of DOGE getting rid of a few payments. A few of them may be real and be challenged. We can’t expect this effect going forward.
I meant 139.
Just like 2008.
I have read Hank Paulson’s autobiography, On the Brink. He was ready to invoke martial law (how can a Treasury Secretary invoke a martial law is another question, but), and he raised the deposit limit to 350,000, now 250,000
If this happens FDIC will raise the deposit guarantee to 1 million, and if that does not work 10 million.
After that they will pay people to deposit money, and after that, they will send SWAT teams to the homes of crypto users, and to those that AI indicates may have money in their mattresses, or gold buried somewhere.
I went to a talk by one of the FED chairman and he said that they were really scared about shutting ethe system and everything was going to freeze up it was a big deal that few people understand
Who will fight for the workers? Muslims? CCP?
Who will propose a world minimum wage? Say $1/hour?
100 rubles, 10 yuan, 1 euro
Just because we live in a world of decline does not mean we have to give up basic worker rights, basic human rights.
Are you being deliberately obtuse?
ed—those rights will be the first to go
What we are willing to fight and kill for will the the rights that remain.
what is fought and killed for, will be the ‘rights’ of the winner….
he will then inflict his ‘right’ on everyone else…
Exploitation of workers is necessary to advance civ
It also backfires as they will allow hostile forces to conquer you. The poor elites have a yeoman’s job.
The hard job of treating people fairly, decently.
That was the message of Machiavelli. Treat people right. If you do not you will need to treat them very badly so they fear so much they will not rebel.
From what I’ve seen, and what I’ve observed in human societies throughout history, fear seems to be the tool used more often, then “treating people right.” If every ruler could hold onto power by being Jesus Christ, they would. If they could keep people in line with charisma and gregariousness alone, they would.
In a very unstable situation, like today or Machiavelli’s Italy) fear absolutely predominates. But in a more slow moving historical period the withdrawal of support to the elites from the lower classes proved important. consider the end of the roman empire as well as the beginning and end of Mongol’s domination of Russia.
Fear works. Mercy is cheap but if fear is imposed people follow. Example: North Korea.
If that were the case, slave societies like Southern states in colonial America and Haiti would be the most advanced societies in the world in terms of technology, high culture, or whatever the h%% you mean by “civ”.
The consensus among researchers is that dependency on slave labor actually prevented them from “development”. Both areas were seen as economically and technologically backwards. Technological development , we’re told is often the result of labor shortages.
Lavrov is talking live. I commented in the post on the side mentioning the Chews. It was instantly deleted.
I posted
Will Russia meets its UN, SCO, BRICS obligations to Iran after the brutal attack by US/Israel?
Will it be deleted?
Is this the link? It was from five days ago.