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Recently, many people have begun talking about the US having a k-shaped economy. In it, a handful of wealthy people are doing very well financially, while many others are falling further and further behind. I expect that the low wages of the majority of workers will soon lead to adverse impacts on businesses, governments, and international organizations. This phenomenon is likely to lead to a very uneven world economic downturn in 2026.
The world economy is subject to the laws of physics. The world economy seems to be reaching growth limits because there are too few easily extractable energy resources (as well as other resources, such as fresh water), relative to the world’s population. The Maximum Power Principle strongly suggests that even as limits are hit, the world economy cannot be expected to collapse all at once. Instead, the most efficient producers of goods and services will be able to succeed as long as resources are available, while less efficient producers will tend to fall by the wayside. Thus, the Maximum Power Principle somewhat limits the speed of the world’s economic downturn.
In this post, I will try to explain the challenges the world economy is now facing. I will also provide some thoughts on how 2026 will turn out.
[1] The k-shaped economy that the US and many other countries are experiencing is an indication that resources are, in some way, “running short.”
Humans all have similar basic needs. They need food to eat, and they need to cook at least some of this food before they eat it. They tend to need transportation services, both for themselves (to get to work) and for goods, such as the food they eat. They also need governments to keep order and to provide basic services, such as roads and schools. All these goods and services require energy of a suitable kind, such as human labor, burned biomass, or fossil fuel energy. They also require arable land, fresh water, and minerals of many kinds.
If there are not enough resources to go around, the easiest way to accomplish this is by creating a k-shaped economy. One example is with farmland. In many traditions, when a farmer dies, his oldest son inherits the farm. Younger children are then forced to find other kinds of employment, such as being a craftsman, farmer’s helper, or priest in a church. Wages for these younger children can easily fall lower than the income of their land-holding older brothers, especially if large families become common. Creating jobs that pay well for all the younger children becomes a problem.
A similar phenomenon has been happening in many Advanced Economies (US, UK, and other countries included in the OECD) in recent years. Parents are doing quite well financially, but their children often have difficulty finding jobs that pay well, even after advanced schooling. Some adult children are also left with educational debt to repay. This is a new type of k-shaped economy.
[2] The world’s current problem is an ever-rising population paired with resources that are becoming ever-more “expensive” to extract.
World population has exploded since fossil fuel consumption became abundant. This has allowed more food to be grown, inexpensive transportation of goods and people, and the development of antibiotics and other drugs.
At the same time, the most accessible resources were extracted first. For example, fresh water initially came from streams, lakes, and shallow aquifers. As the population grew and industrial needs became increased, wells had to be dug deeper and aquifers began to be drained. In some places, desalination now needs to be used. Each of these advances in producing fresh water became more resource-intensive. It became increasingly difficult to gather enough fresh water using human labor alone. Instead, increasing quantities of physical materials, energy supplies, and debt were needed to make the new systems work.
The reason debt was needed to purchase capital goods, such as those required to obtain high-cost water, was because the devices purchased were expected to provide the desired output (water, in this case) for a long time in the future. Securing this future benefit required advance funding, using an approach such as debt. The sale of shares of stock, which are expected to appreciate over time and pay dividends, provides a similar benefit to debt.
A similar issue arises with the increasing extraction of minerals of many kinds, such as copper, tin, uranium, lithium, coal, and oil. Early on, extraction using manual labor and simple tools was sufficient. However, once the easiest to extract resources were removed, capital goods became necessary to make extraction efficient.
Capital goods, such as coal fired power plants, wind turbines, solar panels, and hydroelectric power plants also allowed electricity to be produced, extending the benefits of fossil fuels. Producing these capital devices requires physical materials and energy supplies, as well as debt or the sale of shares of stock for financing.
[3] A major limit on the system seems to be debt and the interest required on the debt.
In an economy, the growth of inexpensive energy supply acts very much like leavening works in making bread; it greatly helps economic growth. With the increasing use of inexpensive energy supply, vehicles can be made ever-less expensively, compared to using much hand labor for manufacturing (literally, making goods by hand). With this growing efficiency, wages rise faster than inflation. In the 1950s and 1960s, young people found that they could marry and live in nicer homes than their parents. Now, the reverse seems to be happening: many adult children are finding it difficult to keep up with the lifestyles of their parents.
Once the inexpensive-to-extract energy supply is depleted, economies tend to add an increasing amount of debt, in an attempt to pull the economy forward. It seems to me that a major limit on the system comes when an economy slows down so much that it can no longer repay its debt with interest.
Political leaders like to believe that growing debt, by itself, will pull the economy forward. In fact, this does work, for a time, as long as interest rates are falling. But falling interest rates stopped happening in 2022.
Of course, all the added debt contributes to the k-shaped economy. The already wealthy disproportionately benefit from debt payments. They also tend to benefit from dividends on shares of stock and from share price appreciation. The poorer people find that an increasing share of their wages goes to paying interest on debt, especially as interest rates rise.
As debt levels grow, governments eventually have a problem with repayment of debt with interest. They need to raise taxes simply to cover their rising interest payments. This is the reason why Donald Trump wants to get interest rates down. Interest payments are rising rapidly, with near-zero interest rates in the rear-view mirror (Figure 3).
[4] Added technology and economies of scale have been adding to the k-shaped economy.
Technology requires specialization. People with more training and higher skill levels tend to earn more than others. Economies of scale encourage the growth of ever-larger businesses. The people at the top of huge organizations tend to earn more than those at the bottom. Also, as international trade is added, low-wage people in the hierarchy increasingly compete for wages with workers from countries with much lower wage scales. Thus, the wages of less-skilled individuals are increasingly squeezed down.
Furthermore, both added technology and economies of scale require added debt. Again, the interest on this debt (and dividends on stock) disproportionately benefits those who are already wealthy.
[5] In a sense, artificial intelligence (AI) is simply an extension of added technology, with a huge need for electricity, water, and debt.
The hope for AI is that it will make our already k-shaped economy, a great deal more k-shaped. The hope is that AI can eliminate a significant share of jobs, with such high profits that the owners of this technology can become very rich. If it works, the wealth will be even more concentrated at the top than today.
I see the need for electricity, water, and debt as stumbling blocks for AI. I expect that, starting in 2026, the AI rapid growth spurt will seize up because it is already using more resources than are available in some areas. I expect that a significant downshift in AI will adversely affect the US stock market and the rate of growth of the US economy. My hope is that the loss of growth in the AI sphere will not, by itself, bring down the US economy–just nudge it toward recession.
[6] In 2026, with an increasingly k-shaped economy, I expect that world oil prices will drift lower than today.
“Demand” for oil really means “the quantity of oil that people, businesses, and governments around the world can afford to purchase.” As the economy becomes more k-shaped, fewer people can afford to buy vehicles of any kind. Poor people, in the lower part of the k, are hardest hit. They will tend to increasingly rely on low energy approaches, such as ride-sharing, walking, or using a bicycle. They will tend to buy fewer goods that are transported internationally. Governments, as they begin collecting less in tax revenue from the many poorer people, will be inclined to cut back their spending on new buildings and road improvements. These changes work in the direction of reducing oil demand, and thus oil prices.
It is this increasingly k-shaped economy that has been holding world oil prices down in 2025. I expect that prices will drift even lower in 2026 because of the increasingly k-shaped world economy. There aren’t enough very rich people to hold up oil and other resource demand by themselves.
Oil production will not immediately drop in response to these low prices, although it may start drifting lower in 2027. The US Energy Information Administration is forecasting that world oil production will rise by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026. These amounts do not seem unreasonable based on new developments that have already started producing higher amounts of crude oil.
[7] The heavier types of oil, from which diesel and jet fuel are disproportionately made, are in short supply now. They are likely to continue to be in short supply in 2026.
World oil production has risen in recent months. When I investigated, I found that the vast majority of the recent growth seems to be in light oil. Thus, the shortfall in diesel and other heavy fuels is likely to continue as in the recent past.
This shortage of the heavy types of oil has several impacts:
a. With a shortage of heavy oil, a fairly strong country, such as the US, is tempted to attack Venezuela, which has the world’s largest reserves of heavy oil.
b. Island nations without their own fossil fuel supplies tend to use a disproportionately large share of diesel and jet fuel, for several reasons: (1) Such islands often burn diesel fuel for electricity. This is an expensive way to make electricity; goods produced with this electricity become too expensive to export. (2) Imports and exports need to be shipped in by boat or by air, again using limited types of fuel supply. Physics tends to push these economies down by making their products expensive to sell elsewhere. Examples of islands with these problems include Cuba, Puerto Rico, Madagascar, and Sri Lanka. Such places tend to be adversely affected by shortages of heavy oil sooner than other locations.
c. Without enough jet fuel, long distance tourism is likely to be reduced in 2026. One issue is the lack of jet fuel for flying planes. Another issue is that an increasing share of the population will not be able to afford long-distance tourism because of the k-shaped economy.
d. Tariffs are a way of discouraging the shipping of goods long distance, to indirectly save on heavy oil. We should not be surprised by their increasing usage.
[8] In my view, deflation is a greater risk than inflation in 2026.
With a k-shaped economy, demand for apartments (especially smaller ones) tends to stay low. As an economy becomes increasingly k-shaped, low-paid workers tend to share an apartment with one or more friends or move in with family members to save money. In a December 23 report, Apartment Advisor writes that the US average asking rent for studio apartments fell by 2.81% in 2025 compared to 2024. The similar comparison for one-bedroom apartments showed a price drop of 1.72% in 2025. In an increasingly k-shaped economy, I would expect this trend toward lower rental prices of smaller apartments to continue and perhaps become more pronounced.
Real estate selling prices may also be an area for downward price pressure. Young people who have not built up equity through prior home ownership tend to find themselves shut out from buying homes. Also, commercial real estate of many kinds seems to be grossly oversupplied in many areas. Given this situation, downward price adjustments seem likely.
Underlying this downward pressure on prices may be some actual cuts in wages. One law firm reports that cuts in wages are becoming increasingly common, especially for employees of smaller companies.
There are precedents for deflation becoming a problem. The US had problems with deflation at the time of the Great Depression. Japan had problems with deflation after its crash in real estate prices in the 1990s, and China (with its real estate price crash) has recently been having problems with deflation.
[9] “Bread and circuses” become more important as the economy becomes more k-shaped.
Many readers have heard about bread and circuses. Before the Roman Empire collapsed, it used bread and circuses to keep its citizens from rioting from a lack of food. The way to prevent food riots is by making sure everyone has enough to eat through food distribution programs, described as “bread.” Providing circuses offers a distraction from the fact that there are not enough well-paying jobs to go around.
Today, with our increasingly k-shaped economies, leaders have figured out that meeting citizens’ basic needs is essential if unrest is to be avoided. Political leaders somehow need to provide food and healthcare to their poorer citizens. They also need to keep people distracted with entertainment. For many years, governments of Advanced Economies have been trying to provide the equivalent of bread and circuses. In the US, legislation providing Social Security for the elderly was enacted in 1935, during the Great Depression. Many other financial support programs have been added over the years. Today’s circuses today are provided through televised entertainment and video games.
A major problem is that the costs of these programs have become more expensive than tax revenue can support. This is especially true of the cost of “bread,” if its cost is defined as including healthcare and pensions for the elderly, in addition to food. Ultimately, these high-cost programs can bring an economy down. The high cost of bread and circuses is thus a second limiting factor, besides excessive interest payments on government debt, (discussed in Section [3]).
[10] Leaders of many countries are already making plans that can be used to deal with shrinking resources per capita.
If there aren’t enough resources to go around, what can governments do to prevent riots? Two obvious choices come to mind:
(a) Tighten controls on citizens to prevent riots. China has been a leader in this area, and the UK and US seem to be trending in a similar direction. In a sense, the Covid requirements of 2020 were practice with respect to restrictions on movement.
(b) Develop a rationing system that can be used, in case of a shortfall of essential goods. Many countries are looking at central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). These are a digital form of central bank money that is widely available to the public. In the US, I expect CBDCs will be rolled out initially as a way for those who are entitled to food stamps to easily access their benefits. If these digital currencies work, CBDCs can easily be expanded into a widespread rationing system. Government leaders will then be able to decide who can afford to buy what, rather than depending on the way the k-shaped economy currently allocates buying-power.
[11] What lies ahead in 2026?
I don’t think any of us know for certain. The general direction of the world economy seems to be toward contraction, but some parts of the world economy will fare better than others.
Europe looks increasingly like it is an “also-ran” behind the US and China in the world economy. I expect its resource use will continue to shrink back in 2026, indirectly benefiting the United States and the rest of the world. I am hoping that with cutbacks in oil usage by island nations and Europe, and the resulting lower world oil prices, the United States will be able to avoid the worst of the recessionary tendencies looming in 2026.
There are some reports that AI, as it is being applied in China, is providing major success in reducing the cost of coal mining in China. If this is true, it may allow China’s economy to grow in 2026, despite downturns in many other countries.
I am fairly certain that AI, as it is being developed in the US and Europe, cannot continue its recent exponential growth trajectory, and I expect this to become obvious in the next few months. This shift seems likely to pull down US stock market indices. Here again, I am hoping that despite this issue, the US will be able to avoid the worst of the world’s recessionary tendencies.
I don’t expect a world war in 2026. For one thing, no country has adequate ammunition capability. I think civil wars and wars against nearby countries are more likely.
It is possible that the EU will collapse in 2026, leaving the individual countries on their own.
At some point in the future, I expect that the central government of the US will also collapse, in the manner of the Soviet Union in 1991. States will likely regroup and issue new local currencies; the new combined governments will likely provide much more limited benefits than the US government provides today.
Many people think that different leadership will change the current trajectory, but I am doubtful about this. Most of the world’s problems are “baked into the cake” by resource shortages and by too high a population relative to resources. Keeping immigration down is one way of trying to keep resources and population in closer balance.
All in all, I expect a very uneven world economic downturn in 2026. Economies will continue to become more k-shaped. Governments will do their best to hide problems from the public. Stock markets will likely not do well in 2026, if they can no longer count on AI for an uplift.
The West never really recovered from the loss of the gene pool from the Great War
I once read the biography of Berthier, Napoleon’s chief of the staff. At the end it says the last of Berthier’s descendants died in 1918 during the last German offensive.
He was among the many ‘mort pour la France’ .
There was a French artist named Gustave Caillebotte . He only drew men, and was probably into men himself so he did not reproduce. His younger brother did, but his only son “mort de la France” in 1917 . He did have a daughter , who apparently did not reproduce, and all of the collection was donated after her death. The Cailleottes were wealthy which is why Gustave did not have to work and spend all the time painting men, but that family ended.
They , and at least 7 million European youths, all perished thanks to Chucky and his 200/400 Worcestershire scums of earth so people like Robert Firth, a forest ranger’s descendant (wikipedia lists exactly one Firth before 1914, meaning the family was not that important before Chucky) and others who had no business receiving elite education could attend fancy universities.
Western Europe did have 400 years of genetic refinement and selective breeding, all of them wiped out in 4 years and Europe has never recovered from this. There are not too many prominent European accomplishments from those born after 1914.
USA was founded by losers of various struggles in Europe. In other words, the genes of Americans, regardless of race, are losers’ genes, which has led to the American insecurity ; no matter how powerful USA is, their genes do have the genes of losers , who made their ancestors to move to a strange land.
AI can only improve whatever is already there. it can not create a new thing.
A lot of smarties from Europe came to USA around 1940s and 1950s. I do not hear too much about their descendants, since USA tends to emphasize mediocrity and their descendants are taught in the American way.
USA does raise good engineers, i.e. glorified blacksmiths, but that is about it. The first “American” Nobel laureate in science was Albert Michelson, born in Prussia (and Tribe member). You do not advance civilization with blacksmiths.
“American” scientist Shuji Nakamura
https://youtu.be/wss22_JUUgc?si=t8vAlAiPTLQNQfaJ
He got a Nobel for inventing a blue LED, a trivial accomplishment, for which his Japanese employer did not pay too much about it so he went to USA and became an American.
From Einstein, Becquerel, etc to Shuji Nakamura in 100 years.
It will take 400 years of selective breeding in the west to return to the level of 1910, when it is doubtful whether we have 4 years, let alone 40 or 400.
Yes, that’s large part behind the [ VIGOR METER ] mentioned in posts bellow. Europe/n (core) is simply out in the new pecking order of world powers, taking 3rd-4-5th.. place and sliding down..
Similarly, that’s why Vlad intentionally avoided another WWII or rather Afghan debacle toll on its fine – prospering domestic pop at large.
Besides completely different mil arrangement and strategies of less infantry needed (drones, glide bombs, ..), also by the utilization of various ~good side headchopper units from -stans / ME, plus invited N. Koreans to get first hand taste of modern battlefield, token SAmerican squads, and so on..
There is no pecking order between the major nuclear states. That’s all illusion.
Well, it depends, perhaps not between the ranking top 3! But as per the gist of posts debated above: Europe dropped another notch down in importance and respect with the Greenland thing.
Besides the n-factor (as in deliverable) concerns only UK+FR .. The first likely can’t launch w./out US direct approval at all, and the latter one fights tech-aging and various other related issues of the material and domestic war machine industries..
NK has more nike authority than Br or Fr
Yes, plus the revealed footage (~yr ago) of cleaner burn on their newly modded rocket engines kind of puts UK/FR into kiddie toy category..
There was some selection process with respect to people who made it to the “new world” from Europe. They had to somehow purchase a ticket for passage to the new world. Then, they had to find a job in a country where the language was different from the one most of them had grown up with.
Without sufficient fossil fuels and resources, intelligence holds little value. The physical world takes precedence over the human mind, not the other way around.
Physical reality is a consequence of the activity of the mind, right? Without Agricola, Newton and Rutherford there would be no modern energy supply. You can add a handful of names.
nope
da vinci figured out the basic principles of flight…
but that to wait 500 years for the IC engine…
I heard about this thesis at the university.
I have very close relatives who have achieved excellent achievements: two doctor’s titles “summa cum laude”, for example, but have not worked a day in life.
In order to be able to make an outstanding contribution to society, you also need an opportunity.
It’s not so easy with above-average achievements, intelligence quotient and rankings!
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2025/12/31/2026-expect-a-very-uneven-world-economic-downturn/comment-page-5/#comment-499098
Jan had a good point.
The quota for the world’s top institutions did not increase by 5 times while the world population increased by 5 times. They only increased by about 20% or so in the last 100 years.
The top is always limited.
However, the top is now increasingly occupied by peoples who had no business running civilization, which is why we are seeing an Atlas Shrugged situation.
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2026/01/el-efecto-reina-roja-en-los-mercados.html?m=1
Why bubbles can’t last forever. 2027 is when it will burst. I think people will/are losing patience and faith in the fiat currency.
I think it will be 2029 or 2030. 100 years after the great depression. And they could use that as plausible deniability. (it happened before don’t cha know?
At least that’s how I would draw it up.
I am not sure that it will be drawn up. I think some people like to think that there is a secret group controlling the dynamics. I think it is all just a chaotic mess. The way that the U.S is acting is a very telling. If Trump was taken into a room and they explained the problems how we have been discussing them for years on here and other platforms- you would have to come to the decision that something has to be done and has to be done soon. The surprise to me is how China is reacting ; I am surprised that they are sitting back after the vz fiasco. I think Iran will be a different matter; 90 percent of Iranian oil goes to China. Could the U.S be doing what it did to Japan before pearl harbor?
Western civilization will die with the bubble
It cannot be overturned
I really like this quote from Quark on his blog
Yes, the problem is the acceleration of debt necessary to sustain growth. We’ve lost control and are now desperately seeking solutions, such as entering “wartime economies.”
If they stop issuing new debt, the bubbles will burst. And if they continue, the price of gold is already warning them that everything has a limit, and we’re very close to it.
The “wartime economy” solution allows them to keep issuing debt, but at the same time, control consumption so that inflation doesn’t spiral out of control. Of course, nobody likes rationing, restrictions, and prohibitions, but they simply have no other option. They want an economic crisis “à la carte,” managed by governments to avoid loss of control and chaos
This is a fine article by Quark, looking at some pieces that those interested only in oil rarely look at. Its title is The “Red Queen effect” on global financial markets.
Quark explains:
In Lewis Carroll’s 1871 novel “Alice Through the Looking-Glass,” the Red Queen explains to Alice that the inhabitants of her kingdom must run faster, only to remain where they are.
The same applies to economic growth and, especially, to the rise in financial market prices. To maintain economic growth, we need a significant influx of new debt, and if we want to grow, this amount must increase gradually.
I definitely agree. And falling interest rates are needed to make it possible to keep the interest on this rapidly rising debt from becoming a huge problem.
Quark talks about TACO with respect to tariffs. For those who have forgotten, TACO = Trump Alway Chicken’s Out. In fact, this may be an ideal strategy when we are living in the strange world we are today. Tariff’s are a war-like strategy. Trump’s tactic is to “throw something up” and “see what starts to break.” Once it becomes clear something will seriously break, he backs back down.
In the strange world we live in, throwing up an idea, and then reconsidering may be the best approach. The self-organizing economy provides ideas of what may work. But if the approach first chosen is too much, backing back down makes other countries happier to live with the chosen lower tariffs.
Maybe the huge “everything” bubble we have today bursts, in the near term, but I have reservations about forecasting it. Even if the financial system breaks, new work-arounds are likely to take their place fairly quickly. Even if the US government system fails, there are still local governments. If businesses are operating, many of them will find ways to continue to operate.
When the central government of the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 (debt-related, by the way), many pieces of the system went on as before. Many people continued to go to work, even if they weren’t getting paid more than free lunch. Dmitry Orlov writes about this in Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Experience and American Prospects. New businesses sprang up, recycling parts of buildings that were no longer being used into new buildings. We tend to imagine the worst possible outcome, but there seems to be more resilience in the system than we assume.
US Government Sold $654 Billion of Treasuries this Week, 10-Year Yield Spikes to 4.24%, Highest since Sep 2, despite 3 Rate Cuts
by Wolf Richter • Jan 17, 2026 • 84 Comments
The new supply: $138 billion of new 10-year Treasury notes replaced $66 billion of matured 10-year Treasury notes.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/01/17/us-government-sold-665-billion-of-treasuries-this-week-10-year-treasury-yield-spikes-to-4-24-highest-since-sep-2-despite-3-rate-cuts/
Well, Russia got more than it wanted; it wanted the neutrality of Ukraine, it got the disintegration of NATO. The problem is that it’s also going to get the disintegration of the EU, which implies political and civil chaos, something I highly doubt Russia is aiming for.
Well, welcome to the Third World…
Copy/paste
Yes, but obviously most of the forcing comes from the US – where they don’t believe in long term value of that part of the world anymore – but meantime shorting the leash (e.g. taking over Greenland) and some limited biz to continue for few more yrs.
The mid-longer term is simply to abandon most of Europe for good – perhaps keep some mil bases in UK, IT, .. and that’s it. RU is flanked by depoped Baltics, failed (future) rump state UKR of 1/5th former scale, friendly ~colony Belarus, also there is the Balkans corridor in the south, which can’t go solo under such conditions (needs protection from neoTurks) as well..
So, as you mentioned political and civil chaos – but won’t be spilling over their immediate borders much.. They would have to only watch(-help/assist) FR (if/when under nationalist rule again) for obvious n-reasons eventually.
Perhaps. Without the war in Ukraine, the idea that Europe and Russia could join forces could arise. Russia has resources and unsaturated markets, Europe can produce and finance, but needs energy and consumers. That would be Mackinder’s horror idea that the “mainland” would rule the world. It can be assumed that the US therefore had the desire for Russia to enter into cooperation with Asia.
The next logical option would be the development of Africa. One would have to look closely at how much oil can be extracted with investments. However, this is prevented by the smouldering racism of the Germans, the Americans don’t have to do much about it.
Yes, that could have been perhaps the best alternative dev plan, and that’s why so heavily-intentionally sabotaged along the way at many cross-roads, now completely ruined.
But, I’m afraid that very train in such direction left the station post 2014/22.. for good, i.e. the utmost (non)trustworthiness and planned abandonment has settled in. I sense it’s now so bad that even if +AfD took over decisively, the DE<-RU relationship (incl biz) would stay very cold-ish and detached, only min. level of coop restarted for the future. And that spans most of the continent, they can perhaps push dev a bit more near ~around the former blocks boundary, e.g. the ~sane countries/pop: Austria/SK/HU.. and partly Balkans that's all.
Most importantly, it's about the [ VIGOR METER ] if both US & RU see Europe longterm as finished – enclave of no future – that's the end. I've got the /benefit of/ ~advanced age, but for younger-ish say bellow 40yrs age cohort go to advice would be bail out into different continent asap.
Hm, seems confirmed in that direction as Slovak PM just met w. Trump/Rubio in Fl. – deal adding US design npp block to their existing fleet – since EU now sanctions-denies CHN/RU certification-insurance..
Similarly for PL npp but they choose it specifically.
Plus issued various strong statements not possible few yrs ago – so the intra EU split as of today is legit.
Jan you write “Europe can produce and finance” etc….
Produce and finance with what? They have no metals…no energy to speak of in a declining world the only have paper fiat and I am shocked that some countries are still taking it for tangible goods! Yes they have good cheese and croissants and wine and lots of American ex pats thinking that Europe is a panacea…..I expect Europe to be investing heavily in the midterm elections in the United States….thank you supreme court….
“It means what we’re already seeing as reality settles into the “real” new world order: the US dollar still king in the west, necessary for energy trade. Russia is firmly in control of the land island, including resources and transit. And China in the east, the foundation of the dollar alternate ”
The very short future ( my guess at the end of Trump’s presidency ) .
For a long time I have been asked ” slow collapse ” or ” fast collapse ” ? In 2 days it will be only a year since Trump became President and we are in a different world . Seneca ???
Not necessarily Seneca (advanced) cliff – collapse sequence per se yet..
Perhaps just maturing de-cloaking of mega-trends which were not cleared up to recently ( to some / laymen majority visibility )..
Chiefly as discussed elsewhere already:
– Donroe doctrine meant seriously
– EU downgraded to open vassalage status (4->5->7th world power pecking order from now on)
– RU ~winning
– CHN ~slows collapse via solidstateBatt_promise?
..
.
“Jan you write ‘Europe can produce and finance’”
Of course! You have to recognize this in time and find a solution. There has even been an elaboration of the Bundeswehr with references to Gail’s blog. Merkel at the latest the problem was clear. Before that, former Chancellor Schröder had already joined the board of Gazprom and defended this in talk shows. When it became clear that there would be a war against Russia, which had been the topic long before the pipeline was blown up, this should have been seen at the very latest. I think this is a fatal technical error.
What I assume, what happened: The federal government believed the feasibility studies on the energy transition commissioned by themselves. There is a lot of money, there is talk in the media of more than EUR 500 billion being invested in wind and solar. I had the opportunity early on to talk privately with an employee in the EU Parliament about the fact that it might be an overestimation of the technology and a bad investment – we had discussed this on Gail’s blog. The answer was: “Dann ist blöd.” (Then we are in a bad situation.) “The technique is decided and there is no plan B”.
The feasibility studies were also discernibly dubious for laymen. However, politicians have appointed the authors as professors and defamed all doubters as opponents of the idea of environmental protection.
An essential idea was that the generation peaks of the “quivering current” would equalize over the grid connection from the Netherlands, Germany to Poland. Only when this was built, it was seen that the wind over this area blows exactly the same on the milisecond and there can be no compensation. After that, apparently, too much was invested to pull the ripcord.
Of course, this is a gross mistake of craftsmanship!
I cannot judge whether the mistakes were made partly on purpose. But many have probably believed in the feasibility and are still doing it. Therefore, no alternatives have been developed.
The British have also underestimated the loss of production in the North Sea. I think the Dutch too. The Austrian state oil production company OMV, which operates one of the important European gas hubs, has even switched its main business model to plastic production. The then Chancellor Nehammer went to Putin after taking over Crimea and threatened him. Austria has 9 million inhabitants. As a result, Putin announced that he would terminate the gas supply contracts, I don’t know the current status. Nehammer then flew to Qatar to buy gas, and Qatar refused to do so on the grounds that they were bound by long-term contracts and had no capacity. In Austria, this was covered up. The blast furnaces for steel in Leoben Donawitz are currently being converted to electric furnaces. Wind and solar are installed everywhere. People say, hopefully they will at least let the old blast furnaces stand!
I am afraid we will have to wait and see. Europe with its low fuel production is in worse shape than a lot of other places.
We are in a time of not enough to go around. The result is like musical chairs.
“No empire lasts forever; the American empire is crumbling, and its European appendage is anachronistic in its immigration, economic, and social policies. The only unknown for the EU is the date of its disintegration. There will be much suffering for the people.
The Chinese empire, too, will not dominate the planet. There are not sufficient energy resources for that.
Russia is what will last the longest. ”
https://lachute.over-blog.com/2026/01/germanistan.html
Thanks.
All previously known – but nice added accent on the FR biz elites selling everybody (incl. FR) to keep the union charade of wheels (pun intended) as long as possible..
ps generally speaking FR intellectuals have been always the most PO lite-aware from the whole west (and or willing to admit it occasionally)..
Humans are just carriers of plant seeds. They spread them like other animals. They originated in the areas where plants started to disappear.
The aim of the humans is to bring back the plants: devastate areas, bring carbon back to the Earth’s atmosphere, so that the plants can return.
Radiation, heavy metals and all types of pollution are here to eliminate other species and restore the dominance of plants.
See the Ukrajine: Tschernobyl, Donbas….
Oh, MG, think there’s more to it than that….
“I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don’t let anybody tell you different.” Kurt Vonneguar
Question..the leading destroyer of plants and animals?
The leader replacer of plants and animals?
Complex animals and also complex plants that require a lot of energy are destroyed. Invasive species, weeds are hard to destroy.
The turds , I mean the Kurds are being expelled from Aleppo by the Al Jolani gangs under America watch , maybe they can smuggle them trough Iran western borders with a few starlink terminals , machetes , pistols , molotov cocktails , to do an hannibal directive murdering children , burning ambulances , fire trucks , supermarkets etc ….. Ups I think they already did that .
The only “communists ” the CIA likes …
Assad was too nice with them and paid the price , and the armenians and the assyrians in world war 1
https://gemini.google.com/share/66dcf0034dbc
https://chatgpt.com/share/696c96cb-9cec-8012-a40f-b952b2c4c2ea
“Bottom line
Plants and microbes define the minimum viable biosphere.
Animals define complexity, not survival.
From Earth’s point of view, animals are optional.
From an animal’s point of view, that conclusion is uncomfortable — but it aligns with the physics and the fossil record.
If you want, we can test this claim against specific ecosystems (forests, reefs, grasslands) or against human extinction scenarios.”
It should be paired with my comment above, somehow it went here.
A related article I found is this one:
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-883374
Strangely enough, both sides are backed by the US!
After Kurdish forces were expelled from Aleppo, Kurds fear new Syrian offensive – analysis
Two weeks of clashes in Aleppo led to devastation in Kurdish neighborhoods.
The neighborhoods had been controlled by local Kurdish security forces for more than a decade. There had been calls to integrate the Kurdish forces, which are linked to the Syrian Democratic Forces, with the new Syrian security forces.
Ultimately, however, the clashes took place, and the Kurdish forces were forced out of the Kurdish neighborhoods. This leaves Kurds fearing that the fate of Aleppo might lead to Damascus pressing its gains by attacking the SDF in eastern Syria. . . .
It is unclear if Western countries or others can get Damascus to de-escalate, or whether the battles in Aleppo will now lead to worse clashes along a long front line between the SDF and Damascus-backed forces.
Both Damascus and the SDF are backed by the US.
In 1981 I visited little Denmark. A flat dreary country, with dreary weather and countryside, and a lot of dreary old buildings. A big disappointment. I remember being shocked that some of their coins had a hole in the middle. This seemed very primitive.
Well, Denmark’s coins still have holes in the middle. That strikes me as more of an Asian thing, actually.
https://www.banknoteworld.com/var/images/product/500.510/Denmark%201%20Krone%20Coin%2C%202022%2C%20KM%20873%2C%20Mint%2C%20Crown%2C%20Royal%20Mint.jpg
Danish coin – 1 krone.
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https://s3.amazonaws.com/ngccoin-production/world-coin-price-guide/1442865-2837580-002af.jpg
Japanese coin – 50 yen.
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Denmark owns Greenland – so we’re told – and the Greenlanders use Danish coins and notes.
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https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/RLkAAOSwmOBialE0/s-l400.png
Greenland’s flag.
Does that remind you of the Japanese flag?
Could Greenland be a Japanese Trojan horse in the American Continent?
Is that why Trump wants to take it over? 😉
Trump can get to be known for adding more land to the US and its territories.
Either that or we are running out of resources and the dollar is losing its status Trump is an idiot or he is lead by idiots he should have taken on China then the rest . Instead he took everyone on at the same time
Excellent advice Nat. Oh well.
150 years ago the uk ruled 1/4 of the worlds people
now we are back the square one
From Google:
Several European territories exist in North America, primarily as overseas departments, collectivities, or special municipalities of European states. These territories are not sovereign nations but are integral parts of their respective European countries.
France administers several territories in the Caribbean and North America:
Guadeloupe and Martinique are overseas departments and regions of France, with full representation in the French National Assembly.
Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy are overseas collectivities of France, with varying degrees of autonomy.
Saint Pierre and Miquelon, located off the coast of Newfoundland, is an overseas collectivity of France with a high degree of self-governance.
The Netherlands has several constituent countries and special municipalities in the Caribbean:
Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten are constituent countries of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, with autonomy in internal affairs. (N.B. – a constituent country in this case does not mean a sovereign state like e.g. Australia, which shares a monarch with the UK – it is more like Bermuda, which is a British overseas territory, or the Isle of Man, which is a British Crown Dependency).
Bonaire, Sint Eustatius, and Saba are special municipalities of the Netherlands, directly governed by the Dutch government.
Denmark governs Greenland, an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, with self-rule in most matters except defense and foreign policy.
The United Kingdom administers several British Overseas Territories in the Caribbean and Atlantic:
Anguilla, Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Montserrat, and the Turks and Caicos Islands are all British Overseas Territories.
Additionally, Clipperton Island, a small uninhabited French territory in the Pacific Ocean, is considered part of North America geographically and is a private property of France.
These territories reflect the historical colonial presence of European powers in North America, with lasting administrative and political ties to their respective European states.
———-
Surely it is time that Trump and the USA de-Europeanised their near neighbours and put an end to colonialism? After all, why does the UK want faraway territories like Bermuda? Only so that the British ultra-rich can stow away their ill-gotten gains in overseas tax havens.
You did not realy see Denmark!
“You did not realy see Denmark!”
Oh yes I did. I went there with an open mind and it was even worse than I’d imagined. Denmark, the country of the extremely dull four L’s – Lego, lager, Lurpak, and the totally underwhelming titchy statue of the Little Mermaid.
As for art, well, Norway has Edvard Munch; Sweden has, well, em, IKEA; while Denmark has nobody and nothing. And music? “Barbie girl” is the best that the Danes could manage. Duh!
The Danes, as Vikings, once conquered parts of England, my country. Then they repurposed themselves as Normans and conquered us all over again. Finally, the Danes did a neo-conquest of England in the 1980s and flooded us with Carlsberg lager, thereby turning our youth into a race of lager louts. Disgraceful.
As for the Danish coins, they suffer from “Little Tin Soldier” syndrome. You’ll remember the story, in which a Danish toymaker made a tin soldier with only one leg, because he’d run out of tin and was too much of a cheapskate to buy some more and finish the job. So the Danes are now the only nation in Europe that have holes in the middle of some of their coins. Cheapskates: “Little Tin Soldier” syndrome again. 😉
Some were impressed by Copenhagen’s Stock Exchange building. I wasn’t – but anyway, it burnt down, didn’t it? Who did that – the Russians?
So a visit to Denmark is a waste of time, if you ask me. 🙁
The good thing about the Japanese flag is that it is impossible to run it up a flagpole upside down.
Otherwise the Koreans and Chinese would have made a habit of doing just that.
The Danes are not a Trojan horse of the Japanese, believe me!
It’s about something else: Trump is trying to annoy the Europeans to death so that they voluntarily overwrite the continent for him.
The alternative would look like this:
Trump is invading Greenland with an armada. The 56,000 inhabitants stand on an ice floe and wave friendly. The children are singing a song. Trump plants a US flag in the ground.
Then the Greenlanders go to sleep. At night, icebergs floating by sink the armada, icebergs that explode because a soldier coughed. The Patroullie disappears in a crevasse. And the helicopters are blown away by the blizzard. The flag is later found in Canada.
The next day the children trudge to school and sing a song.
You can’t beat the ice. You can’t mine raw materials there. The Danes can’t do that either, otherwise they would have done it long ago. The Inuit accept the Danes only because of the strawberries, the potatoes and the snowmobiles. These are really fun!
Trump can only drive around there a little by boat, that’s probably what he’s about. So he will persuade the Inuits that he will unite them with their brothers in Alaska and let the Danes the fishing grounds.
In addition, the markets need a fantasy when AI fails.
There are choices on the table before Donald.
The money printing and defense(well national economy) must be saturated by some key diet ingredient, so either:
1/ Yet another massive ground – or naval invasion – most likely around the CHN supply-trade corridors.
2/ Get Greenland by ~Q2/26 and immediately start build up of various facilities of missile shield for incoming CHN/RU direction-vector threat.
He logically (and personally) favors option 2/ – but it’s a fluid situation as always in national and geo-politics.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/rwM4ccZECiI
How Is Natural Gas Extracted on Land?
This is a link to a page that shows what kinds of wells that natural gas comes from. The latest data is the year 2024 for the US in total.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_sum_lsum_dcu_nus_a.htm
For 2024, approximately
Overall total: 46 Trillion cubic feet-gross withdrawals
From Shale Gas Wells: 35 trillion cubic feet
From Gas Wells: 5.5 trillion cubic ft
From Oil Wells: 4.5 trillion cu ft
From Coal Wells: 0.7 trillion cubic ft.
There are other exhibits that give data by state. I notice that of the categories shown above, the only one that is increasing from year to year is:
“From Shale Gas Wells”
I am wondering how much the natural gas production declines, if shale oil production declines.
Gail,
couldn’t it be also the other way around?
I mean that thanks to US gas export to Europe, US is keeping alive its Shale Oil extration that would be dead otherwise.
Thanks in advance for your take on that.
No , shale oil gas is different from shale gas . The 35 trillion is from conventional gas fields like Marcellus , Utica etc . The 4.5 trillion is from shale oil wells . This is also called associated gas . Gas in the early shale oil fields like Bakken etc was all flared as there was no carrying capacity . The gas from Permian and the later fields is flared but some pipeline capacity has been built . Price at WAHA is too low to encourage pipeline capacity . Biden administration had tightened the flaring rules under methane regulations . Still not a lot of pipeline capacity . It is better for the owners to shut the well if GOR ratio is too high then to pump only gas .
” Permian Basin natural gas carrying capacity is rapidly expanding with major pipeline projects like Matterhorn (2.5 Bcf/d, operational late 2024) and upcoming additions like Apex (2.0 Bcf/d, 2026) and Blackcomb (2.5 Bcf/d, 2026), adding several billions of cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) to move gas from the basin to the Gulf Coast and Mexico, alleviating historical price discounts at the Waha hub by easing production bottlenecks. New projects aim to boost total takeaway capacity significantly, with estimates suggesting around 10 Bcf/d of new capacity coming online by 2030, driven by surging oil production that yields significant associated gas. ”
Not a lot . 2030 is a long way off and shale fields are now declining . See earlier posts .
Hamm is right. Tier 1 Bakken is effectively gone. Tier 2 Water Oil Ratio is too high and not productive enough to work on current forward prices. Even with 3-4 mile laterals, need $70+ oil to deliver adequate risk adjusted returns up there.
We operated in ND for almost 30 years. Over half the Bakken wells are now stripper wells. GOR, WOR both increasing and pressure decreasing. Lots of P& A needed
https://x.com/Rockies_RE/status/2012365709196640730
“Fourteenth Amendment, Section 4 (Public Debt Clause)
“The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned”.
While US government debt interest gets attention, isn’t is so, that the principal “turns over” & has to be re-borrowed? If there are no takers to re-finance the debt, what then?
It seems to me that, if the maturing debt-holders aren’t paid, the pyramid scheme collapses.
Yep.
According to the bot there will be 4.1T in maturing debt in 2026. In 2025 the Treasury issued about 30T in debt. The issuance is so high because, for example, for every trillion of hypothetical 4-week t-Bills, they have to roll them over 12 times.
This is where stablecoins come in and save the day for a couple few years until the pyramid collapses.
They can kick the can further and longer than one would think possible. Look at the EU, whose leadership still doesn’t reflect populist demands despite greater deterioration than we have here in the US.
Yeah it’s certainly been that way so far. There will be no equivalent extend and pretend though one finance capitalism breaks for good pretty soon here.
EU lagging politics is just for Phase 1 cannibalizing of its wealth — lowest hanging fruit — and perpetuating the Ukraine war which does so much to restructure geopolitics away from glabalization.
The Federal Reserve pretends to buy the debt for its balance sheet.
In the same vein as my post on the Chinese situation in VZ is this one on the Chinese situation in Iran . Eye opener .
https://no01.substack.com/p/maximum-pressure-meets-maximum-distraction
Trump announced it yesterday with his usual flair for the dramatic. “Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America.”
This is not a way for the US to be liked by much of anyone. It acts too much like a bully.
“A 10% tariff “on any and all goods sent to the United States of America” will impact Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland starting Feb. 1, according to a Truth Social post on Jan. 17. . ”
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115911344443637897
It becomes 25% if not complied with from June 1st .
It is hard to keep track here. The orders keep coming so fast. And they change back again, as the situation changes.
𝄠 .. under (time) pressure ..
like ive been saying for years…..
the political finesse of the mob boss
Looking as if he may end up like one too,
Already dodged one attempt (that we are aware of)
” in those dreamy archaic times people’s wardrobe in the north had to be quite different. Coats bellow buttocks, no airy jeans, no cheapo plastic shoes, instead wool everywhere and in layers.” It looks like the old style of clothing became unfashionable.
The fashion industry has done a good time of selling plastic clothing with poor insulation to people living in cold climates.
They make it appear that their decisions are affected by emotions or climate change but I think most decisions and therefore are driven by bean counters. ‘
If something is trending, like pajamas or sweatpants, it is likely because it is what they can sell the most of.
“Back in the early 2000s, I ventured to the Burberry store formerly on Connecticut Avenue in northwest Washington, D.C., a pilgrimage to experience the brand’s craftsmanship firsthand. The price tag for the classic trench coat was steep, a hefty $600. (The 2024 prices for a similar coat is $2,150”
Not a lot of people can afford craftsmanship.
I think higher quality clothing was like a capital investment, like buying a car back in those archaic times. Clothing was passed on like it was an asset.
Cheap clothing from poor countries around the world has allowed clothing prices to fall (in inflation adjusted prices) in recent decades. Cost cutting and simplified styles have added to the effect.
If we have to start making clothing closer to home, it seems like the real cost will need to rise. Shoes especially will become expensive. If we have trouble heating our homes, warmer clothes for indoor will become popular. Multiple layers may also be needed.
Clothing is one of the things that will keep changing. In theory, we only need one or two sets of clothing. We don’t need lots of different changes, and we don’t need a big house to store our many changes in clothing.
Just like in China during the Chairman Mao years..
Betcha Tim will chime in now about that…
You were rich owning a radio and bicycle….
PS Yeah, Kulm, they were doing good by being poor so we could be rich and advance civilization…
thats why—when you look at those old medieval paintings of the nobility in castles etc, they were always swathed in thick robes and so on
As I read this I am wearing my indoors boots fleece lined, two shirts inner and outer while I watch the snow fall.
you don’t look very noble edpell
I have a brace of dogs sleeping at my feet.
dont you have be dead for that?
Very interesting comment I heard on the 80m ham radio band last night. The northern European races of H sapiens have evolved sleep cycles to sleep for only 4 hours at a time, because they would have to get up after 4 hours to rewarm through activity. But fire had been in use for hundreds of thousands of years, even with Neanderthals, so I guess this could be related to having to tend the fire?
Makes me think of the Galapagos iguanas, the only species in the world that eats exclusively seaweed, that can stay submerged only 30 minutes before it has to surface for air and to rewarm.
Did they make some specific comments on caves (living), e.g. when it started, and or regionally dependent only etc. ?
In general, there are cave systems with natural ~chimneys (or which took not much effort for humans to complete). And or obviously using the cave’s corner side near entrance as per prevalent-favorable wind direction to exhaust..
One could assume in such setting the fire burned more dependably (+pre dried wood pile), hence perhaps even longer pauses for sleep allowed as they (clan members) rotated duties around the camp fire..
What do you mean by rewarm – like fur and hides in several layers were not enough, imagine entrance into cave as impromptu vertical wall from sticks-net, filled with sod and moss, otherwise that would be strange. Perhaps they meant it more like on hunting expedition trip conditions in the wide open?
There are hobbyist re-enactment parties and also experimental archeology – so this must be all dialed in as of now 🙂
A fun property of plastic seems that it can catastrophically tear or break into smaller pieces when you least expect it. Plastic gloves can melt on a hot summer day in the shade.
now it all goes “back in the box”
An analogy, saying that a life of buying houses and hotels doesn’t really matter. It all has to go back into the box, at the end of the day. Others will own the houses and hotels.
We have to find our own worth in a different way.
Matthew 6:25-26
So I tell you to stop worrying about what you will eat, drink, or wear. Isn’t life more than food and the body more than clothes? 26″Look at the birds. They don’t plant, harvest, or gather the harvest into barns. Yet, your heavenly Father feeds them. Aren’t you worth more than they?
and Luke 12: 16-21
16And he told them this parable: “The ground of a certain rich man yielded an abundant harvest. 17He thought to himself, ‘What shall I do? I have no place to store my crops.’
18“Then he said, ‘This is what I’ll do. I will tear down my barns and build bigger ones, and there I will store my surplus grain. 19And I’ll say to myself, “You have plenty of grain laid up for many years. Take life easy; eat, drink and be merry.” ’
20“But God said to him, ‘You fool! This very night your life will be demanded from you. Then who will get what you have prepared for yourself?’
21“This is how it will be with whoever stores up things for themselves but is not rich toward God.”
I am sure that other religions have similar passages. We can try to be at the top in hierarchical behavior, but it doesn’t get us very far. The Maximum Power Principle seems to suggest that looking out for others has value as well.
“I will tear down my barns and build bigger ones, and there I will store my surplus grain. ”
Sounds like grain bins and the US producing 100% more corn than has a market. Famers purchase larger machines at ever greater cost which require ever more land to make the payments to produce a product which has no market other than perhaps EtOH which is probably thermodynamically inefficient.
Dennis L.
Ethanol use gets votes from farmers. The other alternative seems to be “price supports.”
Trump Administration DEBANKS Scott RItter!
So, Norman IS right there. The Orange Mussolini is the Deep State.
The blurb:
Jimmy interviews Scott Ritter about his recent targeting by the FBI and being “debanked” as retaliation for his travel to Russia and outspoken criticism of U.S. foreign policy. Ritter explains that the FBI’s National Security Division operates as its own unaccountable “deep state,” using intimidation, surveillance, and financial pressure to silence dissent.
Ritter says both Democratic and Republican administrations, including Donald Trump’s, have continued the same policies, contradicting promises to rein in federal agencies and pursue peace. The conversation expands into allegations of compromised leadership, suppressed investigations, and fears of escalating war with Iran and Russia.
Ritter is quite p*ssed off with Trump now. Not to mention with the National Security Division of the FBI. He says he was told in 1998 that “If you resign (as a UN weapons inspector), you will become a permanent enemy of the FBI.” And they’ve been following through on that threat ever since.
Many ~govs / state agencies are using similar tools up to this point across Europe, incl. [CH] which is not EU member state. Basically, the bug-2021 thing or the 2022-UKR thing, generated lot of such cases across many states: blocked banking accounts, msm / pbs smear campaigns, kick-outs from jobs, investigations and court cases, ..
If we trivialize it, too much pop for resources, and the occasional outlier cases noticing such policy – and in response calling “for justice” tend to be bulldoze over as in any prior historical epoch, as not to wake-up the masses to their defacto&dejure barn-animal status.
~Awakening which works only very seldomly through-out history, and it’s usually de-railed anyway.
Ritter is a energy blind clown like BRICS Escobar , the greek duo etc that swallowed all bullshit of the Adelson errand boy , he is another paid actor like Tommy robbynstein , Shlomo Musk with his spy link funded by the pentagon , Al Jolani , Al – zawahiri , The ISIS caliph , headchoppers fed with captagon in Syria, Guaidó , Machado , Milei , Pahlavi , Barzani etc etc
The show must go on and the banyard animals must keep believing in hope and change
Well, it also could end up as “energy awareness” vs “..blindness” was NOT the best strategy at all. Say, if the big boyz press the button soonish, he who lived opulently not looking back, sideways or into future – just won. At least on the proverbial frivolous consumerist “live for the moment” aggregate metrics, hah.
[disclaimer: don’t try lavish lifestyles at home kids]
Well, regardless of the subject at hand, at least we can always rely on Tribal Matrix to come along and slur people he/she/they/it doesn’t like. Is there anyone who is not a clown in Tribal Matrix’s book? We all know Tribal Matrix is definitely not a clown and that OFW is not a circus. Glad we got that straight.
For what it’s worth, I don’t necessarily disagree with some of Tribal Matrix’s characterizations, or with the caricature of many talking heads and political actors as “barnyard animals”. That appeals to me in a Sesame Street or Spittin’ Image way. Yes, yes, yes, I can see how you could see it that way.
But the implication of the worldview insinuated (suggesting or hinting at something bad or nefarious in an indirect and unpleasant way) by tribal Matrix is that almost everyone in the media or the alternative media, the blogosphere, including on YouTube, X, Substack, etc., is a paid actor and therefore not to be trusted or taken seriously.
If that’s the case, then watch and listen to them for amusement, for entertainment, or to test your ability to detect how and where they are attempting to deceive you, and don’t ever let yourself be taken in by their words just because they have a pretty face or an air of authenticity. Distrust but verify!
None of the above seems to me to be a good reason for us not to be concerned that someone like Ritter can be debunked just because Trump’s FBI doesn’t like him. Sure, it’s not as bad as being drone striked, or should that be drone struck, but if they can do it to Ritter, they can do it to me and you, and that should a least cause us to raise our eyebrows and scratch our heads.
The message I take home from this is that we are on a slippery slope from freedom to authoritarianism and neofeudalism, and Trump is not stopping the slide.
I never liked Frank Zappa’s music. It just didn’t sound like music to my ears. In 1973, Lou Reed called Zappa, “the single most untalented person I’ve ever heard” and my rock-loving friends at the time all laughed, despite that comment being at least a fair way over the top. I am mentioning Zappa because it seems to me that these days he is remembered less for his music than for his insightful comments on the way things really are, and for one quotation in particular:
“The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it’s profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theater.”
Zappa wrote this in his 1991 book, The Real Frank Zappa Book, in which he discussed various social, political, and artistic issues. As an entertainment business insider who lived for a time in the infamous Laurel Canyon and with a father who worked for the military on chemical weapons , Zappa knew how things ran behind the stage, and he saw the circus-like aspects of the public sphere.
His second most famous quote is probably :
“Politics is the entertainment division of the military-industrial complex.”
It seems to me, Zappa was right, and that it is no longer profitable to continue the illusion. The brick wall at the back of the theater should be visible now to all but those who choose not to see it.
You can check whether you think Frank Zappa had any talent by listening to his song Valley Girl, which was co-written by Frank and his daughter, Moon Unit Zappa, and is widely credited with launching the Valley Girl phenomenon nationally, nay, globally.
Scott Ritter says FBI got the bank to close his account. The issue seems to be that Ritter was making strange financial transactions. He went to Russia three times last year. Because of sanctions, he needed cash to support his work making podcasts in the country. This was a lot of money, around $10,000. These transactions caused the bank to close his account.
My guess is that any bank would have had a problem with Ritter’s transactions, given current regulations, whether or not the FBI was involved. They are looking for money laundering.
I use the same bank as Scott. I have gotten numerous, simultaneous phone calls, and emails for me to confirm recent activity before they shut down the account.
I use a different bank. I was happy when they flagged a $14,000 check against my account as possible fraud. It was, and we ended up closing that account. The bank opened another account for use, and “Let through” the checks we said were good checks from the old account.
There used to be a time when an individual “owned” their own money and was presumed to have come by it honestly and less there was evidence to the contrary.
I never had any banks or any other authorities asking me to verify anything until around 2010, since when there have been all sorts of extra hoops to jump through to prove I was the actual holder of my account, and especially when sending money abroad. Now everyone is treated as a suspect all the time.
Also, 10,000 dollars is not a lot of money these days. But the bigger issue is that individuals should be free to handle their own money and move it around without harassment.
Ritter is a canary in a coal mine. The screws are being tightened. The system wants everybody to go cashless, and for every transaction to be monitored, and eventually to be conditional on the system’s authorization. Cash prevents this, because in essence, cash is anonymous. It is the quintessential bearer instrument. You hold it; you are deemed to own it, and under no obligation to registered your ownership. Cash is freedom!
Joni (like Frank Zappa) warned us about this 40 years ago.
Oh and deep in the night
Our appetites find us
Release us and bind us
Deep in the night
While madmen sit up building bombs
And making laws and bars
They’d like to slam free choice behind us
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VezZoT7Klv4?feature=share
They get plastics from “naptha”?
Without “petroleum”, where would they get ANY of this?
Some sources seem to talk about plastics from naphtha.
https://plasticseurope.org/plastics-explained/how-plastics-are-made/
I think of ethane for plastics, but other hydrocarbons are also used.
Most naphtha has been going to plastic for long time. Light hydrocarbons also possible.
Naphtha is more of a mixture than I realized.
https://engineerfix.com/what-is-the-chemical-structure-of-naphtha/
Naphtha is an intermediate liquid mixture derived from the fractional distillation of crude oil in a petroleum refinery. It is not a single chemical compound but a complex, volatile blend of hydrocarbons. . . .
Refiners primarily define and categorize naphtha based on the temperature range over which its components boil and condense. Full-range naphtha generally includes hydrocarbons that boil between approximately 30°C and 200°C, encompassing molecules with five to twelve carbon atoms. This broad stream is typically separated further into two distinct fractions to optimize its use in refinery operations.
Light naphtha is the more volatile fraction, boiling between roughly 30°C and 90°C, and is composed mainly of the smaller C5 and C6 molecules. This material is rich in straight-chain paraffins, making it desirable for petrochemical applications. Conversely, heavy naphtha has a higher boiling range, from about 90°C up to 200°C, and contains the larger C6 to C12 molecules. The heavy fraction contains a higher concentration of ring-structured naphthenes and aromatics, making it the preferred feedstock for processes designed to improve gasoline quality.
Correct. But diesel and kerosene also are complex mixes. Gasoline is less complex because it is at the end of the mass spectrum
“Somebody” posted a photo of Warszawa, showing only buildings, and said it is white
Well, it has no shortage of Pho places, and Pho originates from Hanoi, not Polska
https://youtu.be/aAaeD7HSxeI?si=U-6mKVe9e8wC8Ryu
https://youtu.be/MlfIugDeCG0?si=lIDCjvc3PeQzMmg6
Lots of Vietnamese entered Poland during the cold war era and they stayed there
Plus, the city of Breslau, the city Friedrich Ii tried to take so hard and the city of Dietrich Bonhoeffer, is now the land of the LG Group of Korea
https://youtube.com/shorts/y0uneXl6_M8?si=tD52M420b6gUZqgZ
https://youtu.be/6O8viUrKQEE?si=5hK3AIIC-qsrf5To
Which is stuffing Breslau with Pinoys
https://youtu.be/DQe4x4i3Tqs?si=Audz6x4s2BxGKrUr
Asia does need a dozen or two hydrogen bombs.
I don’t agree: “Asia does need a dozen or two hydrogen bombs.”
Maybe he should mean a couple of fly swatters…
Chairman Mao used them to eliminate a epidemic of the little pests with a program to distribute them and campaign on their demise…and it worked!
See, our leaders can provide meaningful solution to a problem
The Four Pests campaign (Chinese: 除四害; pinyin: Chú Sì Hài) was one of the first campaigns of the Great Leap Forward in Maoist China from 1958 to 1962. Authorities targeted four “pests” for elimination: rats, flies, mosquitoes, and sparrows.
The “Four Pests” campaign was introduced as a hygiene campaign aimed to eradicate the pests responsible for the transmission of pestilence and disease:
the mosquitos responsible for malaria
the rodents that spread the plague
the pervasive airborne flies
the sparrows—specifically the Eurasian tree sparrow—which ate grain, seed, and fruit[12]
Though efforts to eradicate the pests were already well underway in 1957, the campaign would not be officially launched until February 12, 1958.[13]: 24 The campaign peaked in the 1957/1958 winter, and a February 1958 article in The People’s Daily mentioned:[10]: 143
more than 300 million rats and sparrows, and more than 246,000 catties (4.54 million boxes) of mosquitoes and flies had been eliminated. More than 3,392,000 catties of fly larvae had been killed. Tens of millions of tons of garbage had been removed. The sanitary condition in urban and rural areas had been greatly improved
See, if we all work together things will improve
Unfortunately, the system needs these things. Taking away part of the food chain doesn’t work.
I’ve noticed that, like the Germans, the Chinese have a tendency to go all the way once they get going. They have no off switch and can’t tell themselves to stop.
Why couldn’t the Chinese have collectively said to Mao, “This is ridiculous! Let’s just leave the sparrows to do their thing, man?”
As it happens, it was worse than ridiculous. The campaign to eradicate sparrows, particularly the Eurasian Tree Sparrow, during the late 1950s as part of the “Four Pests Campaign” initiated by the Chinese Communist Party, was an abject failure, to put it politely.
Here are some key points regarding its effectiveness and consequences, courtesy of AI:
Objective: The campaign aimed to eliminate four pests: rats, flies, mosquitoes, and sparrows, under the belief that sparrows were major pests that consumed grain crops.
Methods: The government encouraged mass killings of sparrows through organized hunts and public campaigns, including schools and workplaces being mobilized to catch and kill as many sparrows as possible.
Immediate Success: In the short term, the campaign was successful in drastically reducing the sparrow population. Reports of millions of sparrows being killed emerged, creating a perception of success.
Ecological Impact: The elimination of sparrows led to an ecological imbalance. Sparrows played a significant role in controlling insect populations. Without them, there was a dramatic increase in crop-eating insects, particularly locusts.
Agricultural Consequences: The increase in pests led to significant crop failures, contributing to widespread famine between 1959 and 1961, resulting in millions of deaths due to starvation.
Program Assessment: Eventually, the flaws in the campaign were recognized, and it was deemed counterproductive. The sparrow eradication efforts were officially halted, and the campaign is widely regarded as a failure in ecological management.
Funnily enough I think that the Germans felt that they were actually all-in on the precautionary principle vis a vis both the imperial capitalists and marxists rather than remaining ignorant of it like the Chinese with the sparrows.
three out of four ain’t bad Tim…look on the bright side,
Be careful what you wish for.
If oil prices are too low, it stays in the ground.
“Shale Pioneer Harold Hamm Steps Back From Bakken After Decades”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shale-pioneer-harold-hamm-steps-back-bakken-after-decades
After decades, a lot of oil fields are tapped out. This is a chart of North Dakota oil production.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPND2&f=M
Production is down, but it hasn’t started falling rapidly, yet.
A speech from 1922 that perfectly describes today.
“Where young people have a future worth building”
Nice ed. You can see why the Hand saw the necessity of tapping into the unrivaled raw political power of national socialism, when crafting its DA. All roads lead to it because humans don’t respond well to collapsing standards of living, and so in order to mitigate that fat tail risk as much as possible, people of rock bottom political expectations at long last have to be gifted a sociopolitics that looks like some kind of wonderful. Politics is just religion, and the Hand is gifting people the politics that religious people (99.9pc of all humans) always wanted because that is the only way that we don’t face a potential extinction level event from the chaotic collapse of a nuclear powered civilization.
Germany was going through a period of excessive wage disparity, not too different from today.
The current US administration has taken their doctrine directly for Hitlers playbook of the 1930s:
https://www.heritage.org/
You only have to read the above link, the heritage foundation, to read the same lies being repeated—how wonderful life is—yes, the words are different, the phrases are different, but the intention is the same…that the masses must follow the dear leader into paradise, while ignoring the economic reality that governs us all.
Increasing number of attacks on the personnel in the hospitals in Slovakia. Often caused by drug abuse. The hospitals need their own guards.
https://my.sme.sk/nove-zamky/c/nemocnica-ako-bojisko-v-novych-zamkoch-pribudaju-utoky-na-zdravotnikov-agresia-lame-aj-skusenych
Sad situation.
Why didn’t Trump incinerate 25 million Iranians? My guess Putin put 20 billion dollars into the Swiss bank accounts of the Trump Children.
Why didn’t Truman incinerate 25 million Manchurians in 1950?
Simple . The ” Strait of Hormuz ” . FAFO .
That is why a sane rational person would stop. Trump is neither. He believes his raging alcoholic Hegseth is a Teutonic war god able to kill all.
But money and flattery work every time. Just give him a bright shinny toy.
Agreed.
I think a war with Iran is still on the horizon. I believe Mossad and the CIA were behind the protests to give the USA and Israel an excuse to attack. They claim Trump changed his mind about attacking Iran, but can we really trust that?
But why are the Iranians protesting? Because their currency and economy have tanked. And their government is highly corrupt and extremely oppressive. The USA placed sanctions on Iran long since, but there are those who say that sanctions don’t work – there are always other countries who will trade with you. Mossad and the CIA will try to give things a push, but can they really be instrumental here. Iran has a population of close on 93 millions. It is not a small country.
Iran ranks 17th largest country in the world by total land area, with a territory of approximately 1,648,195 square kilometers (636,372 square miles). This places it as the second-largest country in the Middle East, after Saudi Arabia, and the sixth-largest in Asia.
But Iran’s population was only 38 million on the even of the revolution in 1979, which is a clear demonstration of the power of Islam to encourage people to be fruitful and multiply.
Anyway, Khomeini was working for British intelligence all his life according to some sources.
Not the Ena Sharples hairnet
https://www.henrymakow.com/why_the_west_created_iran_want.html
An excerpt from your link:
In an article called, “Illuminati Mind Control & the Report from Iron Mountain,” Dean Henderson presents revealing statements from top U.S. officials in the early 1960s about why war is necessary and good:
“In 1961 Kennedy Administration officials McGeorge Bundy, Robert McNamara and Dean Rusk, all CFR and Bilderberger members, led a study group which looked into “the problem of peace.” The group met at Iron Mountain, a huge underground corporate nuclear shelter near Hudson, New York, where CFR think tank The Hudson Institute is located. The bunker contains redundant offices in case of nuclear attack for Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch/Shell and JP Morgan Chase. [7] A copy of the group discussions, known as Report from Iron Mountain, was leaked by a participant and published in 1967 by Dial Press.
The report’s authors saw war as necessary and desirable stating “War itself is the basic social system, within which other secondary modes of social organization conflict or conspire. (War is) the principal organizing force…the essential economic stabilizer of modern societies.” The group worried that through “ambiguous leadership” the “ruling administrative class” might lose its ability to “rationalize a desired war”, leading to the “actual disestablishment of military institutions”.
The report goes on to say, “…the war system cannot responsibly be allowed to disappear until…we know exactly what we plan to put in its place…The possibility of war provides the sense of external necessity without which no government can long remain in power…The basic authority of a modern state over its people resides in its war powers. War has served as the last great safeguard against the elimination of necessary classes.”
It is very revealing that the maniacs in charge of the planet view world peace as a problem to deal with rather than embrace. These are not normal and ethical individuals. War is a way of life for them, but these evil parasites do not actually participate in the killing and dying. They need war to stay in power, make trillions of dollars, and rule the people like sheep.
See Khomeni with short hair and dressed in a business suit!
The Iranian Revolution and the hostage crisis were not authentic popular uprisings against the Shah but a synthetic operation by the highest levels of the Anglo-American oligarchy to regress Iran into medieval theocracy, destabilize the entire Middle East, and advance a new era of neo-colonial control under the cover of “Islamic fundamentalism.”
The real hostages, the authors argue, are not just the American diplomats in Tehran but the peoples of Iran and the West, both held hostage to Khomeini–and behind him, to the geopolitical designs of London and Wall Street financiers.
https://henrymakow.com/2025/11/iran-is-run-by-freemasons-like.html
I love a nice conspiracy theory:
In recent years, a conspiracy theory has emerged that the British secretly backed Ayatollah Khomeini in overthrowing the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, in 1979. One aspect of this theory is a claim that Khomeini was part British, being a son of Haji Williamson. However, no conclusive evidence aside from written documents (e.g. DNA evidence) has been provided to support this theory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Richard_Williamson
Thanks Tim. Under the Makow article you posted is a comment with a link to the following article which I liked much better than the Makow one. More information and it’s more nuanced/gray regarding whether Khomeini was actually a British agent, for what that’s worth — I’m not wedded to either way — in spite of the link to the article which refers to him as a British agent:
http://www.discoveringislam.org/Khomeini_british_agent.htm
That’s more info on Khomeini than I ever expected to read about. I am not wedded to either way either, and I don’t suppose we will ever know one way or the other, but that altered photo showing what he might have looked like without the beard is unforgettable.
It is hard to swallow the statement that he became the supreme leader of Iran while only having a vocabulary of 200 Farsi/Persian words. Even you and I may know that many, although we may not know them as Farsi/Persian.
For instance:
Food & Drink
Aubergine (Brinjal): From Persian badinjan.
Jasmine: From Persian yasmin.
Lemon: From Persian limu.
Musk: From Persian mushk.
Orange: From Persian nārang.
Pistachio: From Persian pesteh.
Spinach: From Persian ispanāgh.
Sugar: From Persian shakar.
Tulip: From Persian tulban.
Clothing & Textiles
Khaki: From Persian khāk (dirt).
Pajama: From Persian pāy (leg) + jāmeh (garment).
Shawl: From Persian shāl.
Taffeta: From Persian taftah.
Turban: From Persian dulband.
Places & Goods
Bazaar: From Persian bāzār (market).
Caravan: From Persian kāravān.
Kiosk: From Persian kiosk.
Concepts & Animals
Assassin: From Persian Hashashin.
Bakhshish: From Persian bakhshidan (to give).
Checkmate: From Persian shāh māt (the king is dead).
Jackal: From Persian shaghāl.
Paradise: From Persian paridaiza (walled garden).
Serendipity: From Persian Serendip (old name for Sri Lanka).
Tiger: From Persian tigris.
Other Words
Amber: From Persian anbar (ambergris).
Gizzard: From Persian jigar (liver).
Julep: From Persian gulab (rosewater).
Sandal: From Persian sandal.
Not to Mention
Ayatollah: Honorific title for an Iranian Shiite religious leader, from Persian, from Arabic ayatu-llah, literally “miraculous sign of God.”
Checkmate: the king is dead. Awesome.
For starters, Iran has to sell it’s oil at like a 10-15pc discount because of the sanctions and also has to operate below capacity.
Only imbeciles who have not been to Iran would say that their government is highly corrupt and extremely oppressive. Indeed, when your government treats you OK you tend to multiply. It is all a matter of where the oil profits go, to the people or to the bankers. Anyway the economy is weak now, but it is nothing that the INSTC can’t fix.
Let us not forget the lack of water is a major factor.
yup
just as in sw USA, you cant install millions of people in desrts, just to enjoy the sunshine, and expect to get away with it.
That’s true. Some think that the Americans have been doing weather modification on Tehran to cause a drought. Sounds way too far-fetched to me.
If desalinating seawater is considered too expensive and energy intensive, then how can anyone possibly build wind turbines and solar panels to replace fossil fuels, a task which is even more expensive and even more energy intensive then desalinating seawater?
168 HOURS
The Pentagon just told you exactly when the strike happens.
You weren’t listening.
USS Abraham Lincoln: 7 days from strike position.
USS George H.W. Bush: 10 days from the Mediterranean.
Al Udeid Air Base: Evacuating personnel.
Trump: “The killing has stopped.”
This is not de-escalation.
This is the countdown.
Here is the mechanism no one is tracking:
You do not clear 10,000 troops from your largest Middle East base for a “diplomatic resolution.”
You clear them when you expect Iranian missiles to hit that base.
Al Udeid sits 200km from Iran. Shahab-3s reach it in 4 minutes.
The evacuation is not retreat. It is battlefield clearance.
The US is removing its hostage pieces to unlock the heavy pieces.
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2012116400752763144?s=20
Who attacks with a week of warning? That is an eternityj
New oil supply dynamics. How much of a hit to China?
This is an AI video, but it makes an interesting point. If the US is able to get the heavy oil from Venezuela, then China won’t get it. China is the world’s largest importer of oil. It needs the heavy oil from Venezuela to provide the diesel it needs for its ships and for other uses. China’s abilities then become downgraded.
Hence my point, that China really has to fight for South America.
China has been doing a lot more than I’ve seen anyone in the west mention. As Ravi has said, they have things sown up through so many layers(they knew long ago how things would go).
After Maduro was kidnapped the Chinese moved swiftly to punish the aggressor through multiple and painful domains and they have barely got going.
The below makes it clear how devastatingly nimble they can be.
https://www.africanews.info/en/index.php/2026/01/12/after-the-abduction-of-venezuelas-president-and-his-wife-and-threats-against-europe-and-iran-what-did-china-do-by-kurt-grotsch/
Well I hope you are right but I read a lot less in that article.
1) Lockheed et al. can still transact with China but have to buy yuans now.
2) China refines a lot of oil but I doubt the USA depend much on it
3) I doubt that the USA has anything electrical of value to sell China.
The two hard hits have been silver and rare earths, and those came regardless of Venezuela’s fate. Gallium and other minor things like graphite and tungsten could eventually qualify as successes but for example I have info that the antimony ban (of which China has only 50% control) proved unsuccessful with many other sellers rushing into the vacuum to the point where prices have been dropping and there is a glut. Success depends on near monopoly and right now the USA has the initiative.
Yes, tend to agree. Was cooking when I read it and then posted, but something didn’t sit right, so looked the author up and checked if I could find anything about the rerouting claim(fail).
Now I’d say it’s some exaggeration, with some potential fantasy(don’t know how to navigate Chinese news well enough to confirm/deny and a quick look in Tradewinds revealed nothing).
Trump has now said he doesn’t think Chevron have the right attitude and so will probably be cut out. So unless it’s the Chinese doing it, there won’t be a lot of oil coming out of Venezuela. I’m struggling more and more to warm to Rodriguez, as I observe the changes she’s making. All the right language, but all the important details unrevealed. The Chavista will know soon enough and take appropriate action.
Iran and Mexico(silver) next I presume, although Iran is a potentially large stumbling block(both ways). Western head choppers being moved around Iran’s boarders looks like it’s going to be all in, on all fronts. I wonder if the Chinese are tailing the US ships heading to the Arabian sea as they did last time and I wonder about submarines.
First I have warned several times that this is a Falun Gong owned anti China YT channel . Second we must keep geo politics separate from financial contractual obligations . Contracts with China were signed by VZ govt /PDVSA and the Chinese government . Not between the USA and China . VZ has a debt of $ 170 billion to various institutions and governments . DJT / or the current VZ govt cannot just say ” Sorry ” we will not honor the debts or contracts under Maduro . Changes in govt does not mean old contracts are cancelled . Third Chinese purchased the oil from VZ against repayment of debt and at a discount . Did that oil go to China or was it sold on the high seas to another buyer say a trader like Vitol , Trafigura , Glencore etc or maybe to Shell , BP or other refiners ? Swapping of cargo on high seas is a common practice in the oil industry . They are all looking to make a profit . Currently the situation is in flux and the Chinese are a patient lot . They know that they will get the oil and their money . As I already posted earlier the VZ production is 800000 Kpbd and China was getting 400000 Kbpd in repayment . China has already filled this gap . I had posted a video of Kevin on this subject . Maybe Gail can pull up my post on contractual obligations which will refresh the memory . Yes , there can be a realignment of shipment/payment by mutual consent but cancellation not .
Good points!
Oil production will not increase . The basic reason is that Maduro has been dislodged but the Chavistas are still there . PDVSA is controlled by Chavistas . They will see how things work out in the future . If nothing improves in the short and medium term they will go on strike and the oil will stop following . Maybe DJT can send Eric , Don jr , Ivanaka , Jared Kushner to work on the pumps 🤣
The power of the Chavistas . The new President asked / requested the Chavista militia to maintain law and order . The problem — they started killing US citizens who were in VZ at the time . That is why the US had to give ” leave and evacuate ” warning . DJT has bitten more than he can chew .
This is a link to one of your prior comments.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2025/12/31/2026-expect-a-very-uneven-world-economic-downturn/comment-page-4/#comment-498735
Not very important but still . The Bakken died long ago , it’s only the Permian that matters . What is interesting is that he purchased a ” working interest ” in Vaca Muerta which costs $ 70 per barrel . There are no margins at such low prices for any oil producer . However they must pump to get some cash . Gotta meet those repayments and for KSA gotta get food for the 27 million goat herders .
https://boereport.com/2026/01/16/harold-hamm-set-to-halt-bakken-drilling-margins-are-basically-gone-bloomberg-news/
So, in your view is this particular affair only about [him] with backside against the wall, had to endure / eat some momentarily losses. Or is there some longer time horizon play in expecting [rupture] into way higher price level, say $75-150 (or double that) again.. ?
Color me crazy, but I’m still of the opinion “the economy” can surely afford such transition to higher price level, not only thanks to real inflation already incurred, i.e. today’s oil price effectively for free!
Basically, “some parts” of the economy will be left to implode and leaks into/out fin system papered over. Yes to the further detriment of again lowered status of the US-EU. But so what.. it’s a long twisted game to loose hegemony “fully” to the bitter end.. Not there yet.
Jr , I am with you . Like I said ” it does not matter , but still ” . Refer my earlier post where I talked about sentiment and narrative in the oil market . This is just another nail in the coffin to the ” tipping point ” .
Vaca Muetra is newer oil from shale in Argentina.
Ravi> thanks for that Jan14-15 coverage-thread on DUC down bellow again..
I simply doubt the smoothness of the overall near PO plateau and the following chapter in real (admitted) fall of production to be exclusively a bottom price perma- deflationary affair for decades to come..
That’s not human nature – irrespective of the tight leash of the above-/govs/biz insiders..
Interested in that just out of curiosity – not gain motive – as it will be fin massacre either way..
They have oil in Indonesia. Much closer
Indonesia itself is a net importer . It left OPEC several years ago as it does not have a lot to export . Not worth paying the annual fee .
“Indonesia has left OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) twice, first in 2009 and again in late 2016, primarily because declining domestic oil production made it a net importer, inconsistent with OPEC’s goals, and unable to meet mandatory production cuts, making membership financially burdensome and strategically illogical for a consuming nation. The country, Southeast Asia’s only member, found it difficult to balance its role as an importer with the cartel’s production-limiting policies, opting to suspend membership to focus on boosting domestic supply. “
you (and others) keep saying that debt has to be repaid. But that is precisely what the USA wants to do, to not repay the debt so that China is weakened. Sure, debt has to be repaid, but I retort with sovereign funds should not be confiscated, oil tankers should be allowed to go wherever they want, and gold and funds stored in New York banks should be returned on demand. It has been going on for years but every time you guys say that this is different.
Mark Carney talking in China
“I believe the progress we have made and the partnership sets us up well for the “New World Order”
https://x.com/ryangerritsen/status/2011886018417607072
Mark Carney from Canada talking to China about how much the world has recently changed, leading to the statement about the New World Order.
China can get their heavy oil from Canada. The U.S still has to show that it can viably get their oil out of Argentina
Just Carney’s latest effort to literally burn down Canada.
well java
one thing you can be sure of—
canadians can be sure they can go about their daily business—without being stopped and asked for their ”papers”.
as i said time and again during donnie’s first term——–
”soldiers obey whoever pays their wages”—at the time i didn’t know anything about ICE, and i couldnt foresee how the conventional military would do his dirty work.
now it’s being made clearer every day….
ordinary people here in uk are cancelling trips to the usa—the place is being ostracised….my canadian family just wont cross the border anymore….
canadians can be sure they can go about their daily business—without being stopped and asked for their ”papers”.
Laughed Out Loud, Norman.
You should be on the stage. You are a lot funnier than most of today’s TV comedians. Maybe I should start calling you Norman Wisdom?
Significant restrictions were placed on people who remained unvaccinated during the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada, particularly between late 2021 and early 2022. These restrictions included limitations on travel, access to non-essential businesses, and federal employment.
Key restrictions for unvaccinated individuals included:
Federal Travel Ban (Air/Rail): As of October 30, 2021,, individuals aged 12 and older were required to be fully vaccinated to board planes, trains, and marine vessels (such as cruise ships) in Canada. By November 30, 2021, a negative COVID-19 test was no longer accepted as an alternative to vaccination for travel.
International Travel Constraints: Unvaccinated Canadian citizens or permanent residents returning from abroad were required to quarantine for 14 days and submit to COVID-19 testing, while unvaccinated foreign nationals were generally prohibited from entering Canada.
Provincial Vaccine Passports: Provinces implemented “vaccine passports” (proof of vaccination) for entry into non-essential venues, including restaurants, bars, gyms, movie theatres, and sporting events.
Workplace Mandates: The federal government mandated vaccination for all federal public servants and workers in federally regulated transportation sectors (including air, rail, and marine). Unvaccinated workers were often placed on unpaid leave.
Quebec Specific Measures: In early 2022, Quebec temporarily required proof of vaccination to enter large-scale retail stores (e.g., Walmart, Costco) and provincial liquor/cannabis outlets.
I think it’s a smart move by Canada. Join the brics. The orange man was over reaching. Your comment seems politically motivated rather than logic based
It’s both.
whether you recognise that or not is irrelevant…..
My comment was meant for Java not you.
i wasnt wearing my pyschic glasses when i replied.
next time i will make sure i do
This is a link to the zeroHedge article on the subject.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beijing-first-canadian-pm-carney-opens-canada-chinese-evs
Canada’s PM Carney Praises “New World Order”; Opens Door To Chinese EVs
“China used to be the largest market for Canadian canola seed,” Carney said. “We want to not just return to those levels, but to surpass them.”
It appears Carney has not learned the lesson from Europe, where flooding the market with Chinese EVs helped decimate automakers across the continent.
Hopefully that pushes CHN into some real car production finally, i.e. elevated ground clearance + awd, .. or never (again) hah.
I think what is missing in the above article is the agreement of China to buy Canadian oil. The stock price of tar sands companies is rising after this.
Merz and other EU leaders over the last couple days have started talking about how Russia is part of Europe and must be engaged with through diplomacy. At the same time, these EU cretins have started sending token military contingents to “defend” Greenland. I am guessing the change in tone regarding Russia is a result of the realization that the US will indeed take Greenland, but I don’t see how any policy Europeans pursue from here on out will help them. It seems to me that the damage is done.
I find this situation extremely funny and tragic at the same time and I think that demonstrates the level of EU and US leaders.
Additionally Russia and China are surely laughing at us loudly.
About EU, its leaders have been saying for three years that we needed to defend ourselves from a Russian invasion, but the only probable invasion of European territory could come from US :- D
About US, if it will invade Greenland, being Greenland Nato territory and being US inside the Nato deal, US should also contemporarily attack itself to defend Greenland, according to article 5 😀
They really are zombies.
“..long march through institutions..”
as re-cycled strategy for specific next gen agenda
Basically, ~normal political class (yes bribes & hidden love child here and there) was deliberately replaced by pre-selected groomed new cadre of complete psychos on direct remote to control room placed ~somewhere else.
That basically took place since mid late 1990s in EUrope and decades earlier in the US.. chiefly after 1960s..
Strange world! I wonder whether the US is still looking to try to take over Russia’s oil supply.
“Statistician to the Stars” Briggs (please read him!) writes about
Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting:
The clearest, or at least funniest, example of confirmation bias in recent politics was when New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich tweeted “Given the committees that I have served on, I have seen a lot of real terrorists. Their glove compartments don’t look like this…” (the ellipsis was his).
He included a picture of Renee Macklin Good’s glove compartment in which were stuffed animals. Good was the woman who got herself killed in Minneapolis by an ICE agent last week.
Now I found Heinrich’s observations hilarious because of his large and curious implication that he has done a study of terrorists’ glove compartments. (One imagines actual gloves would be found in these: a way to avoid fingerprints, you see.) Apparently, Heinrich’s investigations revealed a lack of comforting furry fellows in the many (how many?) terrorists’ vehicles he examined. Thus, he asks us to infer, Good was not a terrorist. If so, that wouldn’t mean she wasn’t acting criminally.
Heinrich tweeted before the ICE agent’s bodycam video was “leaked”, or before Good’s “dancing” video came out, and so he was working solely from the perspective of his Sherlock Holmesian glove compartment studies (perhaps he has a monograph?) and early videos which, I ask all of us to admit, could support several theories of Good’s motivations.
Even now, after the other videos and the bodycam, in which we hear Good’s roommate scream “Drive, baby! Drive! Drive!” as Good drives off, I think it is fair to say that none of us can say with absolute certainty whether Good merely meant to flee and while doing so frighten the officer, or maybe she meant to bump him, perhaps wound him a little, or even to viciously mow him down. Her final perspective will be forever unknown.
The officer’s perspective is different. It didn’t help Good that this same officer was recently also attacked, and hit, and dragged some 50 yards, by a vehicle driven by a man who entered the country illegally, and who was convicted of sex crimes and attempting to flee. Good hit him again, as even Mayor Frey admitted, while downplaying the officer’s hip injury, seemingly excusing Good’s actions because those injuries were minor.
Especially before the bodycam video, and even after, it is clear that many went to this event with their biases held high, and, as we all do, they looked first and foremost for evidence that confirmed their hopes, their cherished theories, their desires. Which is to say, their biases.
I don’t mean bad actors, conscienceless propagandists like NPR (who were particularly culpable here), the evil schemers and manipulators or “influencers” who look to any event and purposely “spin” it, leaning especially into lies by omission, to further their goals. These actors are contemptible; they make even professional Indian scammers blush. I am speaking of ordinary people, like those who get their “news” from sources like NPR or Fox.
Everybody knows confirmation bias exists, I always say, but everybody also thinks it always happens to the other guy. All of us are sure we don’t suffer this dread mental maladaptation. But of course all of us do. It is a solid inescapable fact about us. About all of us, I say again.
That being so, it ought to be our regular practice, especially in “live”, important, or consequential matters, to remember this weakness. But to also understand that “bias” is a neutral word. When you confirm a bias it does not necessarily mean you have believed a falsity. Your bias in any given instance may be correct.
The two crucial things to take into evidentiary battle are this: (1) always seek to disprove yourself, and (2) uncertainty is not decision.
(1) I am constantly pointing out (see the Class) that we excel at finding evidence which supports our beliefs. That’s not wrong. This skill only degrades into conformationitis (yes) when we refuse to accept, see, or credit evidence which goes against us. You have to force yourself. It can even be painful in highly charged emotional events. It will be the last thing in the world you want to do. But do it you must lest you end up like Candace Owens or the people who jump on the hood of ICE vehicles.
A good indicator someone is suffering from conformationitis is if they latch onto one, and only one, piece of evidence which confirms their biases, to the exclusion of all other evidence. Of course, this one piece is often discarded for newer shinier singular pieces. But it’s the singularity that is important: the lack of an appreciation of all other evidence.
For instance, on Day One of the Good shooting, it was either “she had stuffed animals” or “she was dropping her kids off.” On Day Two, it was when Good said “I’m not mad at you” or odd arguments that the officer called his attacker a naughty word after she hit him and he shot her. Don’t scoff at this last one. An investigator saying a naughty word was what got OJ off.
(2) Separate uncertainty from decision. In Good’s case, there is uncertainty in her (final) motive. We do not have to decide which was correct. We often do not have to decide. We can leave it at uncertainty. If we decide, then we have the awful temptation to defend our decision come what may. That’s the other avenue by which conformationitis sneaks in.
https://www.wmbriggs.com/post/59780/
The amount of coverage this story has gotten in the press seems to have inflamed the situation, as well. MSM likes stories with a “personal interest” appeal. More people will be inclined to read the news, and their stories, if they show something to get excited about.
Given the subject matter of the article, it’s pretty tragic that he thinks Good hit him with the car. As the car began to pass by him, he professionally braced himself on the car with his left hand in order to steady himself for the shot. The dude was true pro. His feet slid a bit on the ice as he did so -no big deal. He recovered from the glass blowback for the double tap. The medics said she was shot in the forearm (that would obviously be the first shot through the windscreen which was low and right) and in the chest and the head. I expect, given how fast the double-tap was, that he knew to shoot for the chest first because the aim of second shot of the double-tap would be purely determined by the recoil, which is upwards. The dude was a machine gunner in Humvee turrets in Iraq. Convoy protection. He was THAT guy. That badass maniac who could and would do that job. He’s been around the block a few times.
.. “do that job” as in ~hired / tapped on shoulder to deliver that day ICE mandate over-reach.. extra horrible showcase for msm audience ??
I don’t buy it.
Yes I grant you the (upmost) agency script writers usually tend to produce over complicated almost 5cent silly novel material. And yes e.g. [the 2001 thing] was gigantic event in terms of prep teams needed etc., but that was also the prize – domination – and victory for the several next decades and possibly centuries to come.. beyond the personal bln cash out, hence the effort, risk involved etc.
While this MN. ICE / deportation theatrics was on many many levels down the ladder. IF anything, I’d admit the basic logic first principles case instead: solid %%chance that though guy was deliberately chosen to be deployed there if necessary rough fedgov power over local commoners liking illegals (disruption ICE raid) must eventually prevail.
Given the fact that he was a super soldier, the ‘trauma reaction’ angle makes no sense whatsoever anymore does it?
I don’t see how your position represents any kind of overarching first principle. It represents no-conspiracy Occam’s razor first principles. It doesn’t represent conspiracy Occam’s razor first principles, and it doesn’t Trump it either.
Given the fact that he was a super soldier, the ‘trauma reaction’ angle makes no sense whatsoever anymore does it?
I think it could make excellent sense. Soldiers who’ve been through combat suffer all kinds of psychological problems. They can go off bang at a the sight of a mouse or a car backfiring.
Even more so in the case of super soldiers, as they have seen and heard and done more traumatic stuff than the common bog-standard grunts have.
I’ve known some Vietnam vets personally who used to have flashbacks, when they imagined themselves back in the jungle in a seen from Apocalypse now or the Deer Hunter. I imagine it’s similar for Iraqi or Afghan vets.
Some soldiers do. Many even, perhaps. Others, not at all. Those in the not at all class are just built different. It doesn’t mean they’re sociopaths, though some could be that too. In another life I could be one of those people. The non-sociopath who doesn’t get traumatized by that stuff. My buddy I mentioned in the other comment was certainly one of those people too.
Remember the part in the Good video, after the shooting, when Ross is just walking back to his rig like he owns the street. Like nothing happened. Boy’s got ice in his veins.
the ICE goons have been recruited as Trumps preatorian guard….all dictators form the same body around themselves. (check your history books on that one)
Why?
because their existence and lives become inseperable to his—ie–if he loses his head, they lose theirs. They are shooting people on the streets with impunity.
These are the same people he let out of jail after Jan 6th—they owe him big time.
this is a pattern that has existed for 000s of years in every empire.
donnie can only stay in power through his own increasing criminality—and ICE will stay loyal as long as he pays their wages…
just as i said they would 10 years ago…before i knew anything about ICE…
i hope i’m wrong, but he must now use them to rig or shut down the 26 and 28 elections—already he is threatening the inssurection act in minnesota—where next?
as well in bear in mind too—that if there is soceital collapse, ICE forms a ready made mob to terrorise the country and form warring factions in order to survive independently when there is no government.
Right on Norm, I get it. That’s the classic, orthodox, chaotic collapse scenario. I think you should question that narrative, though, because NSDAP amassed power during an explosive economic/energy growth phase. Complexity theory makes clear that that can’t be done during energy decline. Will a firm-handed law and order politics exist during Collapse? Absolutely. Can a totalitarian police state exist? Absolutely not. ICE is a relative tiny organization. Imagine all the resources being poured into it right now. Hyperinefficient.
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They are shooting people on the streets with impunity.
There’s no evidence of that. I’ve only ever heard of some of them (not all of them) shooting people on the streets with firearms—primarily 9mm pistols like the Sig Sauer P320C or Glock 19, for daily duties, along with less-lethal options such as Tasers, pepper ball launchers, and sometimes shotguns (like the Remington 870) or M4 carbines for high-risk situations, plus chemical agents like tear gas for crowd control.
Impunity is a strong word, Norman. It means being able to do bad things, or illegal things, without suffering consequences.
Whether these shooting have been bad or illegal, or whether they’ve been good or necessary actions, is not for me to say. I just watch the videos and try to work out whether they are real or fake, or theatrical performance, or computer-generated, or whether they show what they are purported to show.
And whether the shooters will suffer consequences for their shooting is something else I have no idea about. I see that Becca Good has hired the same lawyer who fought successfully for George Floyd’s family. So that may result in some consequences.
Your man Biden, or whoever was in charge of his autopen, let somewhere between 10 and 20 million undocumented aliens into the US and released them into the public sphere. Some of these aliens (not all of them by any means) have raped or murdered or terrorized ordinary tax-paying citizens and may have also eaten a few cats and dogs—WITH IMPUNITY.
That’s why ICE is on the job now, as I understand it. When you supported the influx, and open borders, and complained about The Wall, you implicitly supported the current effort to clean up the mess.
Through your support of the madness that the Democrats presided over, you and people like you (which means almost the entire “liberal” side of he political rainbow) gave Trump the perfect excuse he needed to bring in his Pretorian Guard. Hence, the ICE man cometh is down to your collective imbecility.
What did you expect would happen?
Biden and Trump are a double act, a tag team, as they say in pro-wrestling. Biden is Problem and Trump is Reaction, leading to Solution, in David Icke-speak. The goal may well be National Socialism, although they would never call it that in the US. Maybe it will be sold as Social Nationalism, which sounds more cuddly.
But either way, the US is well on the way towards becoming a more collectivist and more controlled society. At the same time, not many people will notice, as the majority seem to be glued to their smartphone screens most of the time.
Seems like you’re trying to have it both ways in that argument to Norm, Tim.
It’s unfair to Norm to say “what did you expect” while also saying it’s an icke-ian double act problem reaction solution because he latter dynamic is supra political and therefore mutually exclusive to Norm’s intra political expectations. Norm nor any Democrats could expect such a hard, brutal, unfair political 180 on immigration because it flies in the face of everyone’s living neolib/neocon living memory.
And the letting in of the immigrants in the first place — which can be more accurately described as economic migrants than undocumented aliens — was a dual act of charity and low-wage-supply economic self-interest. On the flip side it created a necessary pressure relief valve for the countries the migrants came from.And that flood of economic migrants was financially coordinated and logistically facilitated by supranational forces as part of both Extend and Pretend and the Icke-ian herding of the DA. As peak oil structuralists we can’t fault the Democrats. It’s the hand they were dealt. And that hand kept Collapse at bay for all of us…
As you know, being unfair is one of the worst sins an Englishman can be accused of. We pride ourselves on being fair. Anything less is just not cricket.
But, Reante, you do have a valid point. It was unfair and unreasonable for me to assume that that people on the left would have expected the current situation of using “ICE “goons” (as Norman calls them) to round up and deport these “economic migrants” who had no legal right to be in the US.
Although illegal immigration was a major plank of Trump’s first Presidential campaign in 2016, and building “The Wall” from the Pacific to the Rio Grand was a policy goal of his first term, the effort was hamstrung by strong opposition.
And although Trump II is certainly the most authoritarian and gung ho remover of economic migrants from the US in history, previous administrations, both Republican and Democrat, also deported economic migrants in huge numbers.
Estimates:
George W. Bush (2001–2009): ~2 million deportations
Obama (2009–2017): ~3 million deportations.
Trump I (2017—2021), approx. 800,000
Biden (2021—2025), approx. 1 million
All of these administrations employed ICE to do the work, although under Biden, ICE complained that they were not being allowed to do their job.
It’s also true that all administrations have been OK with a certain level of economic migration that doesn’t go through legal channels. The influx probably helps keep average wages down, property prices up, and economic activity chugging along.
So it may well have come as a shock to many people on the left that Trump kept his promise to carry out the “largest deportation program in American history.”
And yes, I feel very sorry for all the people—millions of them—who are being uprooted by this policy. Most of them are probably good people who took a risk in illegally entering the US in search of a better life.
And yes, I think the whole deportation business is bound to be brutal, more or less. Even when the ICE officers are polite. How else could it be anything else?
But, according to J.J. Rousseau, “He who wills the end, wills the means also, and the means must involve some risks, and even some losses.”
We could question whether the end is worth the effort to achieve, or what the consequences of abandoning the effort to deport economic migrants would be?
I’m not a US citizen or resident, and so, fortunately for me, I don’t have to have an opinion on the issue, any more than I have to have an opinion on what goes on in Brazil, Bhutan, or Botswana.
Norman seems very agitated about Trump morphing into a dictator, and although I disagree with that assessment, I don’t know why it bothers him either way.
According to World Population Review, “as of 2020, there are 52 nations with a dictator or authoritarian regime ruling the country: Three in Latin America and South America, 27 in Asia and the Middle East, and 22 in Africa.”
They have a list of countries and how “free” or “not free” they are, plus an map where you can click on a country and see its “freedom” score, calibrated by the EU. Anyone living in Europe, Canada or Australia will be giggling at some of these scores!
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/dictatorship-countries
Of course, I must be fair. But what gets me is the question of why isn’t Norman enraged by the authoritarianism in China, Russia, India, Africa, South America, and the Middle East? Why doesn’t he criticize Chairman Starmer for banging up old ladies for posting mean tweets or exercising their former civil right to free hate speech? Why is it only Trump who qualifies for his ire?
Thanks Tim. Comparing Trump deportations to anyone is like comparing apples to oranges. Most of Obama’s record breaking total was from border apprehensions and yanking people out of their asylum hearings for a nonjudicial, fast-track removal. Deportations in the past have largely been about slowing or stopping the undocumented and not actually reducing the number. Disinflation not deflation. Deflation is a whole nother beast.
Trump’s program is absolutely shredding constitutional civil liberties for both the migrants and US citizens. ICE is showing fake warrants in order to illegally enter buildings, they are requiring brown and black US citizens to show them their ID without cause when pumping gas or sitting in the parking lot. They are arresting people for following them. Those are quasi gestapo tactics that completely change the texture of the social fabric.
Political people who understand nothing of the DA should be fucking outraged and monkey wrenching the shit out of ICE if they care at all about their constitutional rights as citizens. This isn’t even about immigration. They should divine that lunatic Trump does not have the backing of the military and they should re-ante against that motherfucker until he’s removed from office. The Leftists should be showing the new woke authoritarian Rightist little bitches what Don’t Tread on Me is all about. Don’t tread on US citizen brown and black brothers and sisters with your fascist Palantir partnership because if you do we are going to be forged into a new young populist Conservative Left that will outlast you.
That’s what the Hand is starting to mold with a trial by fire while it runs the MAGA clowns off a cliff.
Reante> let me briefly add – there seem to be dichotomy in your approach – or perhaps not fully processed internal grievances as you do (evidently) intellectually grasp fully the nascent deal – outcome ahead.
In a way you comment on other regions turning [ neo-feudalist ] already but at the same time you seem to call everybody on barricades to stall that very process (now) ongoing within the US as well.
Sisyphus activity?
As this particular cake (future) has been baked for everybody on this planet.
Jr you just don’t understand the nonpolitical-political interplay. I am nonpolitical, and I explore the nonpolitical truths under natural law that are placed in service of political falsehoods on both the Left and Right, depending on the situation. Currently I am exploring how the Left, as new controlled opposition, contains more truth in service of political falsehood than does the Right, because the Right is in power.
To repeat, the Hand is repeatedly using the threat of totalitarianism –first on the left with the plandemic, and now on the right with MAGA — to herd the country into Left Conservative Libertarianism.
Why don’t you understand? Because you’re a big C Conservative and I am a little c conservative. You do politics and I don’t. So you wrongly assume I’m making some sort of intellectual mistake when it is has everything to do with your lack of true conviction because politics has no true conviction.
Perhaps we are dealing with a uni-party of Powers that Be. Sometimes the will of the uni-party is on the Right, sometimes on the Left. It zig zags toward its goal.
Perfectly put, Gail. Zig zags, I like that a lot. The Senecan cliff is steep, so TPTB must resort to using switchbacks. Thanks.
Thanks Reante. Your sentiments do you credit. The view from inside the country must be traumatic to the gentle-hearted.
You are also aware, of course, that uniformed “goons” (as Norman likes to call ’em) and dark-suited sunglass-wearing three-letter-agency “thugs” in black SUVs are as American as apple pie. In fact, the tradition goes all the way back to the Wild West. We Europeans have always been shocked at how casually Americans resorted to shouting, slapping, and shooting each other in the movies.
I remember when air travel used to be fun and American air crews were the most casual and laid back of the lot, and the airport staff were generally friendly and efficient, as long as you were arriving from Europe, East Asia, or Australia/NZ. After 9/11, that changed completely and flying to the US became a nightmare, so my friends told me. Passengers had to brace themselves for the “Gestapo” treatment as everyone was treated as a potential terrorist and every orifice was treated as a potential hiding place for contraband or weapons that had to be searched.
Americans complained, or grumbled to themselves, but mostly they complied, and that’s how authoritarianism on trains and boats and planes became normalized in the US.
The current aggressive roundups by ICE agents—I take your point that this is a brand new development—are building on that foundation, taking another step towards the control grid if you like, or away from freedom and towards—I’ve got to say it—fascism. Trump’s second administration is ticking off a lot of those boxes.
It’s problem–reaction–solution all over again. In the case of 911 the problem was “terrorists”, in the case of the war on illegal immigration the problem is “dangerous criminal aliens”. The reaction is the very visible use of state force and, at the slightest provocation, state violence. And the solution—the destination that the policy is aiming at—is more control over the population, the suspension of certain constitutional protections, and the criminalization of dissent.
My guess is that as the bulk of country becomes poorer—maybe a lot poorer—the owners have decided that Americans need to be corralled (limited in what they can do and where they can go), guided (or steered), and branded (digital ID)) in the name of security, which trumps all other considerations for the state. They need to be controlled because they may get the idea of taking torches and pitchforks and marching to the castle.
This sort of regimentation of society works OK in East Asia (China, Japan, Korea) because the populations have been trained for hundreds or even thousands of years to prioritize social harmony. But I don’t think it will work nearly so well in the US, where the culture is primarily driven by individualism rather than the collectivist desire for group harmony. However, it is going to be rolled out and tried in any case.
We’ve mentioned Miles Mathis a bit recently. He has long said that the owners want to destroy the left and drive Americans to the right by deliberately by the turning the Democratic Party into a degenerate freak show (I am not quoting him verbatim as I can’t remember his exact words). In this article from four years ago, he takes apart the “pedophilia” op as a way of making ordinary Americans disgusted with the Dems so they will flock to the Repubs—who will implement the required control measures.
https://mileswmathis.com/pedo.pdf
I told this story here about 5 years ago. When I lived in Portland I worked at the same group home for mentally retarded adults for eleven years. It was a single staffed house of five and I did two 18 hours overnight shifts a week during which I was allowed to sleep. That was how I could structure my life around being one of the best pickup basketball players in the city.
While working there the company hired a guy who I became friends with because we gravitated towards each other during the weekly staff meetings. We got together outside of work and discovered that we shared something unusual in common. I had walked away, barefoot, from a pro basketball career in England, and one day during the 2006 Israeli war on gaza, in an IDF elite special forces officers meeting, he had stripped down to his skivvies in the middle of the officer’s meeting and slammed his uniform onto the table while dressing down everybody in the room for what they they were doing to the gazans. Obviously he got thrown in the brig. I told him how during that war I had painted FREE GAZA in huge letters on the outside wall of the most popular coffee shop in my neighborhood.
He was a dual American-Israeli citizen and they deported him and he ended up in Oregon because his mom lived there. He was the combat sniper (top position) on his squad and they had been running 3-4 day missions during which there is no sleep. He was the only one who didn’t take amphetamines because he didn’t believe in drugs. He was built different. A physical specimen. Guy was a legend, and he left in a legendary manner. He had an Israeli wife and toddler and Israel told the US not to issue them any visas, so whenever he could save up enough money he would meet them in Egypt.
He took me out shooting once, which I had never done before. When asked, he told me his body count was 17 or 19, I can’t remember which. Everyone in the combat military keeps track of their body count and everyone knows what everyone else’s body count is because counts are the unofficial medals of honor. I’ve now settled on the belief that the Hand put Jon Ross up to this because his body count is probably one of the highest in the military, given his job. Ross’s machine gun kelly body count is so high it’s undoubtedly just a composite estimate patched together by himself, his team, and whichever support troops cleared and assessed the houses and streets in his wake. Easily into the hundreds. Iraq was a bloodbath. His status within the military forced MAGA to back him no matter what.
When we went out shooting he brought a rifle and a pistol. When shooting with the pistol I had to shoot at cans and bottles while he stood shoulder to shoulder with me simultaneously shooting the semiautomatic rifle into the dirt in front of us such that I had to shoot the cans and bottles through the dust clouds. He took my noob ass to elite combat training the very first time lol. Even though he’s middleaged and out of shape now, this is how I subconsciously recognized that Jon Ross is a former super soldier, when I saw him physically react but not bat an eye to the windshield glass blowing up in his face, and then I asked AI what he did in Iraq.
We fell out of touch after he moved on from caregiving. We hung out once and that was it. He had started the first Krav Maga class in Portland at a local fitness business.
Apparently the Left has seen that he married a Filipino woman who was, I’d guess, providing cleaning services or whatever for the US military in Iraq. He brought her back with him. The Left is talking about how he’s trying to get her family over here and referring to that attempt as “chain migration.” Not a term that they would have ever used as little as a year ago I don’t think.
I’ve now settled on the belief that the Hand put Jon Ross up to this because his body count is probably one of the highest in the military, given his job. Ross’s machine gun kelly body count is so high it’s undoubtedly just a composite estimate patched together by himself, his team, and whichever support troops cleared and assessed the houses and streets in his wake. Easily into the hundreds. Iraq was a bloodbath. His status within the military forced MAGA to back him no matter what.
I was reading about Ross in a recent WIRED article:
According to Ross’ December testimony, he served in the Indiana National Guard and was deployed to Iraq from 2004 to 2005 as a machine gunner on a patrol truck, then joined Border Patrol in 2007 after finishing college, working near El Paso, Texas.
https://www.wired.com/story/ice-agent-jonathan-ross-renee-good-shooting-firearms-trainer-testimony/
If he was in Iraq for between one and two years and shot one Iraqi a day, the body count could easily be 500. But that was 20 years ago when he was a youngster and full of adrenaline. I would bet he’s a lot less feisty now.
There is the coincidence that he was dragged by a car driven by an undocumented alien he was trying to detain, and required 33 stitches—not 32 or 34 or 30-odd. I don’t want to get into Satanist numerology on such a nice sunny January day. But whenever I see the number 33, I automatically think psyop! It’s not my fault. I’ve been conditioned that way.
Yeah the block it took place on was between 33rd and 34th streets and the media was apparently calling it 33rd. Just around the corner from the Floyd fiasco, which, after all, is probably what tboc was referring to in his comment.
Reante, you may be right on this. I’ve seen several videos full speed and slow, and in some of them it seems clear to me the guy wasn’t hit and in others it seems clear he was. Also, what with AI tricks, we can’t really be sure what we’re seeing, can we?
Also, Biggs point that we don’t actually know what was in Good’s mind when she began to drive toward or away from the ICE officer is valid. I certainly don’t know.
So I reserve judgement on what happened.
Who’d have thunk it, back when Peter Gabriel was handing out camcorders to people going to demos and marches in the Third World so that they could record what was going on and show it to the world, that having video imagery could actually complicate stories rather than clarify them.
Did you happen to come across this X post, from someone who seems super-confident he knows what he’s talking about and is sympathetic to the ICE officer? I think it’s worth reading, especially if you disagree with the opinion. Anyway, I’ll reproduce it below (with some cuss word removal and bolds for emphasis) as a precious opinion we should all treasure in the interests of diversity, plurality ‘n’ stuff. And because it’s entertaining.
=======
Luckily I wrote an entire big explanation on Facebook before this new video even came out about how Michael here is a r*t*rd-
Not just for this case, but for most shootings where a cop or armed citizen who has had some pistol training ends up shooting someone, you will commonly see some similar behaviors. Set the politics aside and just look at the mechanics of the event.
This is the short version of a complicated topic, so f**k off TL/DR dipsh*ts. I’m a novelist. I don’t give a sh*t about you sub-literate whine baby crowd who expect everything spoon fed to you.
First, most pistol training is based on firing multiple quick shots at the threat. That’s because unlike the movies, pistols are not magic. They don’t throw people back. They just poke a hole. The more holes they poke they more likely they are to hit something important that’s going to cause the bad guy to lose blood pressure. The faster his BP goes down, the sooner he quits trying to murder you. Yay.
In real life shootings bad guys often get hit with several pistol bullets before they decide to stop doing whatever it was that caused you to shoot them to begin with.
So most defensive pistol training is some variation of-THREAT! BANG BANG BANG and the number of bangs will vary depending on what you’re working on.
Entitled White Liberals who only know guns from TV will declare that whatever number of rounds you fired, it was too much, and you are thus evil (while they are good and can do no wrong ever).
The time between Bangs is what we call your split time. For shooters this is a very important number for a whole lot of reasons. For that majority of you who don’t own a shot timer, if the shots sound like they match a cadence like “a One and a Two and a Three” like a band is about to play a song, that’s around .3-.4 splits, so about three shots per second. If it sounds like you’re saying “OneTwoThreeFour” fast, that’s closer to .25 or maybe a bit faster.
Now, in this situation (again, leaving out the politics, take it over the to big thread to scream at me NPCs, this is just about firearms training) ICE guy believes he’s about to get run over by a Caring White Liberal (again).
He’s got about a whole whopping second to process this.
Brain says THREAT! Training says BANG BANG BANG
Keep in mind, the vehicle is in MOTION. I know liberals struggle with the basic laws of physics but an object in motion tends to stay in motion, especially when it weighs a couple tons and somebody just stepped on the gas.
The first shot hits the windshield.
BUT WHY DIDN’T HE STOP THERE?!?
Because when his brain said THREAT GO, a clock started, he began firing, and by the time his brain said OKAY STOP the car had continued moving, and he was now in a different position relative to it.
That’s it. It turns out that human brains take time to process information and made decisions. Caring Liberals watch videos in slow motion and then talk sh*t like they’ve got the reaction time of Spider Man.
https://x.com/monsterhunter45/status/2009732767249248405?s=20
Firstly, I’ve you’ve seen an angle (the one from the rear) where he clearly isn’t hit by the car, then he can’t have been hit by the car. Right? There’s no two ways about that. OTOH, if he looks like he was hit from another angle (the front one), there’s another reason for that
Now, the NYT freeze framing from the front does show that he initiated contact with the car after he had stepped clear of the car with his body (as crossreferenced with the video from rear in that split second) by bracing himself on the hood with his left arm in order to fire through the windshield. Then we can see from the rear angle that what people are saying about the front angle ‘showing’ he got hit is actually him reacting to the glass exploding in his face.
This X post is trash. Yes you’re trained to take multiple shots. But there are three problems with that. He easily sidestepped the car, rendering all shooting completely unnecessary, he shot after he was already clear and it was him who reached out and initiated contact with the car in order to brace, and three, his first shot was separated from his last two shots. It wasn’t bang bang bang. It was bang…bang bang, which is different from his mindlessly firing from THREAT GO to OK STOP.
That guy felt zero threat whatsoever. That guy knows what threats are better than anybody. His whole life as a high level taskforce guy has been handling himself in dangerous and unpredictable circumstances. That wired article made clear that he was a fuckin BOSS in his field.
It’s like people thinking a highly experienced guy on a sport bike splitting lanes on a freeway between cars must be crazy because he’s risking his life. He ain’t risking his life anymore than anyone else on that freeway is. People just making shit up because they can’t see the ability that maybe they don’t have themselves. Can’t see what the ability sees that sees there’s no more risk to it than having a car in front of you and a car behind you.
As Good was reversing into her three points turn Ross was already heading to his right to get out of the way. It was a walk in the park. People are funny.
Great points Tim.
In my view Reante over-complicates the scene there.., confabulating very edgy scenario with extra low prob.
Again lets refocus on [The bottom line], which cleared up the case back then, the video from the other side of the street. That G. lady is moving the car several times ON PURPOSE – blocking traffic (both civilian and agents), constantly honking, there have been several cops/agents on foot nearby – had to watch out for that ~3ton SUV potential danger. That was all likely ongoing way before the video started recording, and then it went like described for several additional minutes more.
When the cops finally closed in on her, the first pre-contact looked like they are about to drag her out of the car (already reaching touching near door handle, window sill etc.).
For some reason, perhaps not deemed dangerous enough and female, they let her go. ONLY then comes the SUV accel. and shooting scene finale..
Basically, we are talking about VERY LONG CHAIN of events needing several build-up phases and forking scenarios. It was most likely just genuine mess – not some pre-calculated hit.
Reante’s case makes sense ONLY if the G. lady was on the case as well, i.e. merely tasked with escalating the situation enough there, and then to be erased by the pro character on spot. Too messy over-all situation, too much people around, I’ll grant it >1% probability in my book.
ps THE UTMOST BOTTOM LINE remains: mother of 3kids (supposedly all pre 15yrs old) HAS NO BUSINESS in intervening to ongoing police/ICE raid.
It’s common sense, despite all the edu/msm pre-
conditioning / brainwashing she was likely put through her ~child/adult-hood on civ liberties, protests etc.
I had the luck to spent some time with my late grand- grandmothers who pulled the family through WWI/II, while their husbands and brothers dumped as PoW, conc. camps, etc. For any sane person it’s like compare-contrasting entities from different galaxy vs. that very silly story of G. lady in MN..
Since you’ve already admitted that you’re a misogynist who grew up cowed by totalitarianism, your not in a structural position to speak with any degree of objectivity on this matter. And those are just the two deficits you’ve openly acknowledged. You still believe that he was hit by the car, and that the car’s increased its weight from two tons to three tons overnight lol.
Spellbound in capture bondage.Next!
I’ve never mentioned he was struck by a car only about a looming threat from accelerated SUV.
HENCE FAILED ARGUMENT
I’ve never mentioned – identified myself as full scale bona fide [mysog] – partly joked about it only as per context.
FAILED ARGUMENT AGAIN
Yes, correct. I did make this honest error about (3t) Honda Pilot? (2t) SUV,
which makes very little difference as you might have known from physics the 1->2tons vs 2->3tons effects on smaller object ala human body. Moreover, it was again firstly used in context vs RoW Police engagement rules – where cops can afford to shoot at tires first in countries with more compact carz, as not prevailing 2-3t SUVs everywhere..
(PARTLY) FAILED ARGUMENT
So, Reante from just the above not very good score for ya..
Besides, you repeatedly mentioned-invited others to rough talk to you, not used/misused by anybody so far.
Suddenly, you are turning it upside down like every possible stitching needle poking on me, wtf?
Are you an agent provocateur on duty?
Smells like that buddy..
—
For viewing-eval-critique pleasures, recent case of rammed cop by stoned female driver (Q1 2025). It is quite likely this has been studied by other cops incl. those deployed in that MN. theater.. hence their reaction coming comparatively sooner.
Youtube:
” Officer Involved Shooting Body Cam Video In Bismarck, North Dakota “
The best vid ~hidden / throttled down by YT search algo !dytopia!
So, try direct link:
https://ww w.youtube.com/watch?v=pvzuKpeI24E
You calling me an agent. You are out of your mind, newcomer.
“You calling me an agent”
https://youtu.be/xtbaEOuD_Q8?si=P7TMNL2tdlFAZImB
reante, what is this totalitarian country that you mention, where Jr. allegedly grew up? I missed that, somewhere along the way.
Again not able to argue the facts-points..
Besides I’ve joined the commentariat here from the ~very beginning if you need that measuring contest.
I don’t know, Dem. I missed Jr’s apparent first reference to it as well, but I don’t suppose he was specific. I had guessed it was a commie country, meaning a Soviet bloc country, because his response to the Good thing struck me as a conditioned one. And he has since (not so) clarified it as a semi(?) authoritarian country I think it was. Something like that.
It’s more often than not the case that the patient will have an initial breakthrough moment of clarity and then regress again. So it might take a little time.
Jr feeling worse before you feel better is part of the process . Keep going.
Cont. on that Bismarck case..
for aficionados:
That DUI suspect / attempted cop slayer on snowy parking lot mole-hill, Melanie Udell’s family name is kind of interesting. Doesn’t have to be the case at all (or merely ~ .01% residual genetics) but supposedly [Udells] tend to come from this nice pittoresque area:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coniston,_Cumbria
Jr and Reante, we are discussing how these things can escalate, and here we are escalating.
See how our emotions can get revved up, just by reading each other’s comments. I have my own issues with that—probably due to un-exorcised childhood trauma.
We would do well to take a leaf out of Norman’s book here. He never lets words offend him. If they look like there’s any possibility they might do so, it’s eye-rolling time. 🙂
I’ve seen about five different videos, including the one where the car clearly misses Officer Ross, but also one where he seems to have been hit.
The NYT has produced a video that tries to show what happened by using footage from several of the original videos, and although they don’t make a firm conclusion, it seems clear to me that Officer Ross wasn’t hit by Renee Good’s car.
https://www.facebook.com/nytimes/videos/video-analysis-of-ice-shooting-sheds-light-on-contested-moments/1986823772256222/
There are a number of possibilities about this event, namely: She Ran Him Over (SRHO), She Tried to Run Him Over (STRHO), She Tried to Drive Away without running him over (STDA), and The Whole Thing Was Faked (THTWF).
At present, I am discounting SRHO and STRHO because the video evidence is against it. I don’t rule out THTWF because this is such a great theme for a psyop. But tentatively I am going with STDA—A real incident, no intent to cause harm by Renee Good.
I think we are all broadly in agreement on that, JR? Reante?
That being the case, we have to consider whether Officer Ross fired because (a) he reasonably feared for his own safety, or (b) because he reasonably considered it was necessary in order to stop Ms Good from driving away, or (c) because he was angry at the way Ms Good and her significant other (it turns out they were not legally married, although they both went by the same surname and referred to each other as “my wife”) had been harassing him and his fellow ICE officers and simply blew his top.
Oh and one more, we have to consider whether (d) he is a cold blooded killing machine.
We know he was in Iraq and was a dab hand with a machine gun. But how many people has he killed or shot at since he came back to the US?
I expect this information will leak out in dribs and drabs over the coming weeks and months.
Tim> your structuralist approach on the case is welcomed. Both the outlier cases SRHO + THTWF are of very low prob. Hence we are back to the main bulk domain of scenarios where the cops to some degree feared for life/injury. Hence the preceding Bismarck case (~lovely lady suddenly on the killing spree) and similar others likely un-spooling in their heads during these few secs.. As you alluded some details might come forward along the way but most likely just as add.nuance to this overall middle stream kind of scenario/s.
On the general emotional outburst – well lets rather call it reaction to committed [obfuscation & spin savagery] – in the end produced something positive after-all: F. Fitz fantastique tune (avail. both in HD and live versions) and yours article.
Thanks for peacemaking, Tim, but no we don’t broadly Jr is firmly in tbe STRHO camp. He’ll probably try to wheedle out of it but that view is the only one that justifies his OKish verdict on the killing of an unarmed woman who had already waved most of the other ICE vehicles past her.
Like you said, he did it on order to stop her. And perhaps he did that under orders/agreement not specific to Renee. Now that other ICE guys are going around to people following them in cars and saying stuff like, “you know what happened the other day, right?,” a conspiracy is becoming more evident.
Reante> you objected to my general assessment of specific copdriver / suspect relationship across most of the US.. as generally accepted norm up today. As in colloquial terms: in perceived elevated danger cops first shooting then asking later.. Hence public groomed from childhood for decades – don’t ever provoke the cops!
Yes silly but more or less correct behavioral stat summary.
I did provide recent precedent vid from Bismarck, although that was openly DUI situation etc. – yet still lot of similarities in these cases, two cops, female driver (to be accel. into cops) via parked ~SUV.
As noted several times – my approach rests on the mother-hood. If that’s not legit / possibly faked – twisted as discussed in that Kulm-Tim thread bellow – your angle was (in other aspects) partially valid.
I’m NOT trying to wheedle or weasel out of anything..
“Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention?’
‘To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.’
‘The dog did nothing in the night-time.’
‘That was the curious incident,’ remarked Sherlock Holmes.”
Building on Holmes’s logic, I would like to draw your attention to the curious incident of the dog in the back of the car.
Why would a woman risk a confrontation with an armed “ICE goon” (to quote Norman’s picturesque description) if she had a pet dog in the back of her car?
Like the fact that she has a young son to take care of, the fact that she has a pet dog with her in the car should tend to make her more cautious in dealing with uniformed armed officers. The fact that she through caution to the wind—That is the curious incident.
I can’t wrap my head around it!
If she was legit, she must have been incredibly naive to have been doing what she did. Being so provocative, disrespectful, and disobedient, and expecting to be allowed to drive off after being ordered out of the vehicle.
By the way, has anybody seen the photos of the deceased?
Crime scene photos are not public records their disclosure is governed by specific laws that vary from state to state. So, we may never get a chance to view them and speculate on whether they are authentic.
Tim> you advanced great points in that particular branch-line of argument..
On another facet, some of her alleged pics (facial) kind of vibe to me with cancer patient – chemo / particles therapy etc. Well, could be just unpolite photo op, bad makeup cleaning, hormonal spike, at the time.. , .. , a bit swollen up so perhaps another serious disease apart from stereotypical cancer option of feeble bodied..
Also, bottom line – way easier to fake it completely all through – than seek “willing” ~cancer (terminal) volunteer like that. But on the other hand, logically, that would conveniently fit heightened msm / ngos campaign program though if such crazy deep pre-planning taken place.
This is all theatre for the left. The bottom line is, whether she hit him or not…if he feared for his life he was correct to shoot her.
Now, compare this to the Capitol Police guy that killed Ashley Babbitt. His life was not in danger in any way. Being a trained marksman, he carefully braced his arm against a corner wall, carefully and it appears he deliberately aimed at her neck from 6-8 ft away, and made a kill shot. If so, Ashley Babbit was murdered in cold blood.
All he had to do if he wanted to stop her from basking in a window was walk up and punch her in the nose and knock her on her ass, and it would have been over. Heck, if he wanted to shoot her, all he had to do was put a bullet in her shoulder and it would have been over.
Now maybe, just maybe, his highly trained shot was “off” that day. Perhaps the stress of the moment impeded his ability to perhaps only wound her. Perhaps it can be argued that Ashley was moving and his shot, that was intended for her shoulder, well, unfortunately hit her neck and killed her. I will allow for that possibility, just as I will allow for the possibility that that ICE officer was in fear of being killed by that car.
Notice that by March of 2020, hundreds, soon to me thousands, of J6ers were being arrested by Biden.
Notice that under Trump, one year after taking office, this Capitol police officer has not been arrested and charged. Hardly no one has.
There is a saying that in politics there are no coincidences?
Good point about the lack of arrest.
If Jon Ross feared for his life he would have been diving out of the way of the car or diving up onto the hood in order to easily roll up over the top of the car as it was only going 5mph lol. That’s a child’s play situation he was in, and there’s no better proof of that than how easily he sidestepped the car. So easily, in fact, that he decided to use the hood as an off-hand shooting rest.
Case closed says physics.
This article makes some excellent points relating to US strategy, and how important Rare Earths are.
https://www.profgalloway.com/rare-earths/
One excerpt:
The idea that nations don’t have friends, only interests, is a worldview variously attributed to Lord Palmerston, Charles de Gaulle, or Henry Kissinger. The maxim doesn’t capture the idealism that (sometimes) drives American foreign policy, but it does sum up how statesmen explain the logic of sacrificing blood and treasure in the pursuit of national interests. A nation that secures its interests, oftentimes natural resources, controls its destiny.
Also:
If rare earths are the new oil, China is the new OPEC. Chinese mines supply nearly 70% of the ore from which rare earth elements are extracted, and more than 90% of the refined materials. Meanwhile, the U.S. imports 70% of its rare earths from China. . .
As Deng Xiaoping famously said back in 1992, “The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths.”
This is a link to a chart from the article, showing a graph of the production of rare earth oxides, by country, over time.
https://www.profgalloway.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/area-chart-2.png
Really, as with Oil now, you don’t want to be in China’s position as a supplier. The least you exhaust your own reserves the better. We officialy entered the countdown world, and when supply chains start breaking, you want to have resources as close to you as possible, luckly inside your own borders.
I am not an expert: my understanding is the US does not process its rare earths due to the environmental impact of such processes. Thus if one were to include environmental costs there is a fair chance China would be a net loser in this endeavor.
Dennis L.
Unlike people who don’t know what they are saying, I do know a bit about this
What happens is because the Chinese had worked with the rare earths for so long while others did not, the Chinese do have technology on how to work with the rare earths to make them more useful, a tech other countries do not possess.
So, even if some other country might have rare earths, as of now China does have advantage on the processing ability
My understanding is that even if we start producing larger quantities of rare earths, the US doesn’t have the ability to process this ore. We need to ship the material to China for processing. We have not been able to put together the equipment and procedures to actually do this processing efficiently and without huge pollution problems.
A year and a half on, even Kim Iversen is coming around to “questioning the veracity” of the failed Trump assassination attempt at Butler. Let’s check out her reasoning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKxGKfgXnu4
Let’s take a poll:
Genuine or fake? Real or staged?
—Trump at Butler?
—Charlie Kirk?
—Renee Good?
First things first:
“A year and a half on, even Kim Iversen ‘is coming around’ to “questioning the veracity” of the failed Trump assassination attempt at Butler.”
FTFY! 😁 Because Kim is a national socialist spook. Fo sho imo.
1. Not real
2. Not real
3. Real, probably, but I’m highly suspicious about the possibility that the ICE dude was on a mission, literally – whether the victim turned out to be Good or someone else, because on the level of political theater, blocking ICE with cars is a major resistance tactic, and on the Hand’s level, MAGA must be ‘nazis’ that get run off a cliff. But I’d definitely be up for watching any good Not Real video analyses out there, because the second and third shots were so egregious, and because of the apparent refusal to treat her or let the doctor bystander check for a pulse.
This is possible. See the interview with foreign minister Aragcki (sp?) of Iran as to what instructions the armed protesters received from their handlers. It’s a small world.
I strongly disagree that Kirk was not real.
No offense but you think Kirk was real because you are anti- Mossad, who was framed for it. I’m anti- Mossad, too, but Mossad didn’t do it because nobody can pour a cup or more of blood out of their neck in less than a second because blood psi is about 2 and the flow rates don’t support that volume, and blood was clearly lumpy coming out of his neck. And the entry wound was obviously unreal, and there was no exit wound. And his shirt just happened to jump over the ‘entry wound’ the split-second it happened. How could the shirt movement possibly precede the entry wound? It couldn’t possibly even precede the wound being a hypothetical exit wound. Run the trillion-fold odds on all those things. Not Real.
I’ll look up what the Iranian guy said, thanks. Obviously the Good incident coming right before the Iranian protests is suggestive that if the Good incident was engineered on some level (and the Iranian protests too), then one of its purposes is to make — to the marginal US voter — the US regime look like a closer cousin to the Iranian regime than previously realized, and hyper hypocritical to boot, for threatening to bomb Iran for killing unarmed protesters.
Small world indeed. Fits in the palm of the Hand now that it’s becoming clearer that Iran has signed on to the DA. USD Stablecoin usage is exploding among Iranians and Tether has become the IRGC’s best friend. So, in structural Reality, the rising digital Lincoln Greenback of the World is providing a public banking backdoor bailout to yet another ‘enemy.’ Ask yourself why Trump doesn’t seem to mind that Tether is the IRGC’s best friend, when the GENIUS Act explicitly binds Tether to MAGA oversight?
The Stablecoin financial revolution is a universal reverse carry trade for unwinding the global private banking system. Inflating countries bail out of their own dying currencies and into stablecoins.
All money is debt money, so the only two interactions with money are borrowing and lending. There is no actual owning because money is just a proxy for energy surpluses. When a peak oil prepper puts cash under the mattress she is hopefully borrowing that money as a future claim on energy surpluses. Which makes cash a financial derivative in Structural Reality. If money is a proxy for energy surpluses, then it is, by definition, a financial derivative. When she buys a gun with some of that cash, she is lending out that money for good (as in forever). Exchanging the cash for the gun is analogous to a reverse carry trade. A flight to safety. A flight towards Real Structural value.
Likewise, when Iranians acquire rials they are borrowing them and immediately lending them out in order to acquire (borrow) stablecoins. That’s an interest-free, Treasury -issued — and therefore national socialist — global reverse carry trade. For safely unwinding global finance capitalism as much as it can be unwound.
as usual I am willing to listen. so Kirk is ensconced in some compound in some tropical island for the rest of his days?
All it takes is a moderate amount of plastic surgery and a fashion makeover and an engineered new start to life a la the witness protection program, and a shell company stipend for life. Preferably on a tropical island says Charlie.
Some truths can only be got at via a process of elimination and this is one of them.
Fortunately this one is in service of ending political Zionism.
thats nothing
right now all the moonloonies are pointing to the 300f ft tall hologram of the latest ”rocket” being moved to the launchpad….
so that another moon expedition can be faked.
ive lost count of how many moonshots have been ‘faked’ so far…
no doubt one or two ofw’ers will put me right on that….
I am sure this time they will make sure shadows are parallel. The field of photoshopping has vastly improved, specially with the AI bubble.
thats good to know drb….
been worrying me that one day they will put people on the moon…..
then the fakenuts will take over while they are there….
and decide they are just a hoax…
and wont bring them back because, obviously they do not exist…
Hadn’t realized they go and pick them up and bring them home norm. That’s kind of them. Seems like an inefficient way to go about it though.
When they give Charlie that plastic surgery, the’d better to do something about that creepy gummy smile too.
AI Overview
A carry trade profits from borrowing a low-interest currency (like the Yen) to buy a high-interest currency (like the Australian Dollar) to earn the rate difference, thriving in low volatility; a reverse carry trade does the opposite (borrows high-yield, invests low-yield), often when high-yield currency risk increases or the yield gap narrows, essentially betting against the original trade, sometimes called an “unwind” when conditions shift, as seen with the yen’s rate hikes.
Carry Trade
Action: Borrow low-yield currency (e.g., JPY), invest in high-yield currency (e.g., AUD, MXN).
Goal: Earn the interest rate differential (the “carry”).
Conditions: Low market volatility, stable economic outlook, risk-on sentiment.
Reverse Carry Trade (Unwind)
Action: Borrow high-yield currency, invest in low-yield currency (e.g., borrowing USD to buy JPY).
Goal: Profit from yield curve shifts, currency depreciation of high-yield assets, or the unwinding of carry trades.
Conditions: High volatility, economic slowdown fears, rising rates in the funding currency (like the yen), or political instability in high-yield nations.
Key Differences Summarized
Direction: Carry is borrowing cheap to go long expensive; reverse is borrowing expensive to go long cheap.
Market Sentiment: Carry loves stability; reverse signals instability or a shift in interest rate policy.
Trigger: Carry is driven by high rates abroad; reverse is often triggered by rising rates in the low-yield funding currency.
In essence, a reverse carry trade is often the market’s reaction to the end of profitable carry trade conditions, as seen when Japan raised rates, causing a massive unwind of the popular yen carry trade.
reante> since you opened the den of worms again, the ICE shooter has been supposedly victim of previous incident (at job) dragged by suspect car for a not insignificant distance. Meaning when deployed recently in MN. he got such neuro-bodily imprint reaction – an impulse to not repeat that trauma experience again hence the direct elimination style of shooting we observed eventually.. Obviously, this detail could have been fabricated or used from the archives – pinned on another person etc.
In any case, the bottom line remains: for US specific condition-history of cops vs public at dangerous moment – yes it was an elevated type of incident BUT EVIDENTLY NOT some crazy out of blue sky murderous hit..
..hence from it follows even under the scenario of overall plot to undermine the ICE and govs deportation policy that would be quite limited win for the plotters – only very fringe liberals freaked out from this incident after-all.. very limited longer time impact in rear view mirror on general pop..
Uh, no. This incident and the politics surrounding the reactions to it have a huge impact. It swings reality back leftwards away from the current MAGA mass formation psychosis just like Let’s Go Brandon mass formation swung reality rightwards. It makes MAGA look like zombies to a normal person.
Why leftwards now? Because national socialism is left libertarian conservative.
Excellent 7min reality -based complex analysis of the shooting just released by the NYT. drb might choose to suspend his boycott for the day.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/video/ice-shooting-renee-good-minneapolis-videos.html
One quibble on the NYT analysis: when the narrator says that the the shooter’s phone camera is capturing clouds after the first shot, he doesn’t realize that’s a cloud of glass. It was great to learn from the analysis that the shooter braced himself (for the shot) with his hand on the hood. He took her out like a real pro. Recovered immediately from the exploding glass in his face for a very quick double-tap.
at the same time of all this hundreds of iranians including police were getting killed by well armed terrorists (being paid to ultimately help support the lifestyle of cop and victim). it’s a waste of time to focus on the political gyrations of the dying empire, specially if you have a job. it is possible that you are right although in the video I saw she looked less than respectful with the cop. but either way, I can not see what difference it makes.
Appreciate that drb. I think that our disconnect is just that I see the political gyrations as the tea leaves to read, which reading illuminates how the Global Elite (the Hand) are going to game-out the coordinated response to the structural predicament. That illumination, if accurate, helps us greatly in knowing how to act WRT to the physical, economic, and political realities of Collapse. And, above all, the illumination also matters in and of itself.
If we don’t see the gyrations for what they are, by standing outside of them and observing them, then they become us one way or another because we are inside them and therefore they are inside us.
drb> in fact we have been in debate here – throughout the spooling-up of these protests in Iran. Lot of vid material was out there for diy analysis.. yes perhaps way unjustly in terms of real weight of the material but other topics pulled more attention overall..
Well, to a degree it’s perhaps a bit personal as several people on this forum either have lived at one point in MN. or have distant relatives around etc. It’s a very nice place all things considered..
For example, I’ve seen only very limited fraction out of ME, and never been to Persia-Iran.. , not in personal contact with diaspora or anything, .. it’s very alien in a way..
The folks I have met from Iran seemed like nice folks to me. The usually say that they are from “Persia,” rather than Iran.
I just pasted a Facebook version of this excellent video, not having seen the one you posted.
Time zone differences mean I am often late to the party.
You are the party I’m always late to Tim. Can’t you start commenting the minute you wake up?
Tim lives in Japan.
Tim and I would often be able to communicate in real time if my posts didn’t go into the mod folder after you have gone to bed. I find that unfortunate.
Speaking of your list, from our vantage point it’s unknowable at this point, so why bother? And the last item has been debated in tech detail as well as atrocious media spin role enough.
But we in observation mode know for 99.9% fact, that as of lately they have “taken out” Maduro, before they almost killed Fico (SK/EU), and many other leaders /candidates /various int.role fixers – around the world for many decades.. It has been a pattern throughout all history, yet with very much elevated profile/freq. after the WWII when certain govs incorporated certain elements and strategies..
In short it’s a deliberate policy.
Miles Mathis has said everything, incl Maduro and the Minnesota woman, is fake.
During the VZ event I said we can’t discount the possibility Maduro will be eventually deported to another country ala Belarus.. as a gesture or token to be replaced within greater “deal” negotiations..
Pretty much everything is fake to Miles except for the spherical Earth. And Miles does NOT like to be held accountable to his conceptual analyses by engaging in debate. His physical analysis of events is frequently terrible. His shit is formulaic because he’s just riding on his own coattails.
Some have noted that the number 33 appears a couple times in conjunction with the Good murder
Miles says Ross is a Jewish name.
I thought it was mainly Scottish.
I knew he would call this event fake, but I wanted to see if he had uncovered any blockbuster evidence.
He found that the Southside Family Charter School, where Renee Good’s son is supposedly being educated, is actually St. Joan of Arc Catholic
Community, and the school building has a sign at the front saying Church of St. Joan of Arc.
https://mileswmathis.com/good2.pdf
Thanks. As usual he does a great job with the research framing it as a hoax. But like I said the other day, his physical analysis is often rock bottom. Like at the beginning when he shows the photo of the windshield with the bullet hole and wryly posits that the other two shots must have missed the car entirely. What the fuck is his problem?
Uhm, I’m not going to deep dive fully into this den of worms in detail for now. But usually when chartered / church schools appear in [ anglo-saxon ] political cases – it’s indeed often times leading to plots, twists, identity hoaxes, agents, .. the whole shabang.. that’s their modus operandi 24/365 as per single manual available in the whole library lol..
Hence proviso issued re-eval option is still possible, aka scenarios like G. lady not as much mother as assumed in what ever further context..
That would answer my pillar objection, regular mothers of three kids bellow 15age don’t engage ~near SWAT level cops ever. Yes there are a very few hysterical outliers though, but behaving rather specifically :-]
PS concluding paragraph [Jan 11] in that .pdf starts with not fully done / sloppy? research – the author probably have seen just a clip – not the ~entire length of the footage as that over the fence across street video showing the episode SHE actually blocks the whole st. impermanently – occasionally backing off to sidewalk edge so traffic can pass and then returning to blockage again.. spooling up the cop’s nerves even more..
No. The rear video which is still the best video, was the first video, or among the first. That level of ‘flat earth’ retardedness of physical analysis is gaslighting and brings the finger pointing back round to Miles himself. He did the same thing when talking about the blood drops in the Irena Zarutska video.
ok – I understand your position – I’m not defending that guy’s full spectrum argumentation (also given his overall previous record vis my other comment on him.. on different sub-thread).
Well, onto Kulm’s and Reante’s prior points – I almost choked when reading Maduro is from a Sephardic Moorish family.. (North African Spanish J. enclave)..
That makes all these recent VZ gov reshuffles kind of interesting when most of the media instead ran the story about him as incompetent low IQ former bus driver leftie – supposedly sitting on trillions of oil money in the ground and ~strangely~ with no good gov policy about it..
In the first place, spheres alt. physics aside – Miles tends to like (naked) “..library type of girlz..” as per his both written and painted material show-cases on site..
This MN. case is getting seriously weird..
Good, I would encourage it getting weird for you so that you can drop your authoritarian reaction to it.
POLITICAL THEATER
When everything is a lie,
the lie becomes invisible
as the stage director’s finger.
In the dark, the audience smiles,
the audience applauds, thinking
they’re following the story.
But if today a grain of truth
costs seven hundred
rotten illusions
and the price of admission
is suspension of disbelief,
only from outside is perceptible
the underplot of decomposition,
with its rites and reasons
marked in red:
the wine of desire cultivated
in trellis of necessity,
the punctured bubble of democracy,
the chain of stabs and sutures
we call progress,
the dead end of evolution.
Nice!
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2026/01/produccion-mundial-de-petroleo-en.html?m=1
This appears to add to why the U.S is making the moves that it is; I hope he is wrong but I don’t think he is. With declining oil production the U.S. will have to get revenue somewhere else. Europe is toast …. Sorry Mike Jones
Quark says (near the end)
Trump’s recent comment regarding the increase in defense budgets by 50% , to reach 1.5 trillion dollars, seems to reflect the intentions for the coming years to establish world control, via the Pentagon.”
I suppose that could be in the back of Trump’s mind, and in the back of the minds of the oligarchs pulling the strings, but I think it is a far more ambitious plan than is doable. The US doesn’t have the resources. It has already backed down on its Iran efforts, I understand.
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-withdrawing-some-personnel-qatar-air-base-over-iran-threat
Quark points out that most of Venezuela’s oil exports now go to China, and Trump would like them all for the US. That sounds quite likely.
He also points out that most of Iran’s oil exports now go to China, but as I say, I am doubtful on the US’s ability to steer Iran’s exports to the US. I suppose Trump can try.
Quark also says:
The US wants to control the oil market, not only because of its importance, but also to strengthen the petrodollar .
That is probably true, but I was of the impression that the petrodollar situation is already beyond saving. The US has made so many enemies with its sanctions that countries are very much interested in leaving the US dollar. Also, the long term agreement that the US had with Saudi Arabia has now run out. It is my understanding that as of January 1, 2026, Saudi Arabia is now accepting other currencies than the US dollar.
Many stories say that the big run up in gold is partly because countries are already trying to get away from the US dollar. There have been US articles saying, not to worry, but it seems to me that the floodgates have already been opened. Within a few years, the system will be much more multilateral.
No sarcasm: Once you have the biggest pile of gold, what next? Economics is flow secondary to biology. Au is not biology. Given a choice would you take the brain of Einstein or all the gold in the world?
Dennis L..
the eyptians once had most of th gold in the world—–
what did they doo with it?
they buried it
why?
Because their actual currency of exchange was mainly food.(ie Energy)
now the usa has a vast stash of gold—buried in fort knox
Its buried there because the currency of exchange is oil…(ie energy again)
I keep saying that a country needs to pay its farmers first, to keep production going. Whether or not people have gold or stable coins or shares of stock may not matter much.
“It has already backed down on its Iran efforts, I understand.”
I’d advise caution where that is concerned, as at the same time they announced the evacuations from the Qatari base, they also announced the a new unit going into the exact same base and US military traffic in the region is not slowing.
Iran’s ability to manipulate starlink seems to have put the plan back a little, but it could happen as early as tonight.
Good point!
Warsaw, Poland. 99% white people: https://tinyurl.com/mwr27x55
Raysisssts.
Greenland should rent to the US at one million dollars per greenlander per year (or 250 ounces of gold per year per person which ever is more).
and 200 billion dollars per year into a sovereign wealth fund
it occurred to me too—that if i was a greenlander , and theres only 57000 of us—if we were all offered $1m each to go and live somewhere warm. I’d jump at the chance
In theory, they could move to Florida or Texas. If Professor Valentina Zharkova is correct that we are looking at an additional -20c to northern temperatures, I would jump at the chance.
Or simply buy mineral rights to the country, for a much lower price.
This is a relatively difficult article, but it ends with asking a reasonable question: If Pennsylvania is sitting on top of huge natural gas resources, why not build some natural gas electricity supply for the state?
https://amgreatness.com/2026/01/15/the-grid-is-warning-pennsylvania/
The Grid Is Warning Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania’s power crisis is no longer theoretical: PJM’s latest auction shows deep shortages, soaring prices, and a state losing new generation to neighbors with clearer, faster rules.
70s collapses and confirms it will stop trading millions of tons of coal in 2026
Plus, why coal has drastically decreased as an energy source for the US
Jacob Willeford , Consumer Reporter
https://www.the-sun.com/money/15777892/superior-midwest-energy-terminal-stop-trading-coal/
A TOP energy company that’s been operating for decades has confirmed that it will stop trading millions of tons of coal starting this year.
The operation is shutting down for good in the coming months in a shocking update.
According to data from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal’s contribution to energy consumption was at a whopping 37% in 1950.
As of 2023, it was just 9%, “largely because the US electric power sector has increased use of other energy sources and reduced coal consumption.”
Perhaps the self-organizing system is somehow trying to save what coal is available for some distant time when better techniques are available to extract it. If we believe Kevin Walmsley, China is already using an AI approach, which has improved efficiency.
Sure, they may “kick the can” a little longer..
But rust never sleeps…
if coal is 1/2 mile undergraound, energy is needed to
a—reach it
b –extract it
there is no ‘easy way’…no matter how much hopium is used.
and when the coal is at the surface, it is necessary to convert it into ‘product’….
if product costs too much, people wont be able to afford it…
Right. Transporting the coal to market using diesel is another issue. Building coal fired power plants and electricity transmission lines is another approach, but it tends to be slow and expensive.
Coal fired trains can move coal.
Agreed. At one time, not too long ago, China even had coal-fired trucks. They may still have some.
Not exactly, low quality brown coal from open pit mines is ~best for powerplant$..
Hence you have to use / haul / store /.. two varieties of coal: slightly better-q for steam-motion and the lower-q for powerplants..
–
“The type of coal steam locomotives use is called “steam coal”, which is in between bituminous coal and anthracite coal.”
“Definition: Defined as all other hard coal not classified as coking coal. Also included are recovered slurries, middlings and other low grade coal products not further classified by type. Coal of this quality is also commonly known as thermal coal.”
a coal fired train requires about 5+ men to make it work….without including the logistics of moving the coal itself.
a diesel train requires 1 or 2…
oil flows freely….
coal doesn’t….
And, as mentioned before, it needs to be high quality coal. Most of today’s coal is pretty low quality.
Inflation/deflation: It depends.
1. Raw materials inflation
2. Existing structure depends. If it has an economic use, inflating, no current use deflating. Used autos are an example, they seem to be inflating if useable.
Best investment for a young person now, possibly engineering, mechanical as it is sort of general. Electrical is tough, what is current today is useless tomorrow unless installed equipment which needs maintenance.
For people, thinking there is a strength in groups, Amish and Hasidic. Problem, need the groups to be in physical contact; guess electronic communication is not as effective. Amish are within horse distance, Hasidic seem to aim for walking distance.
Social control is easier, steal from the group, banished. I suspect a common set of rules is necessary and they need to have a history of working.
We are biology, we have social rules to avoid law of the jungle, with biology we have economics which seems to make living life much easier.
Amish seem to have fairly good lives without large amounts of oil, reason for hope.
Dennis L.
A major issue is that deflation tends to cause banks and financial institutions to fail. This causes governments to print more money, or do whatever they need to do, to try to stop this deflationary trend–bail out the banks, or whatever. Of course, this cycle tends not to end well, either. It heads toward hyperinflation.
Explain to all of us how a 3.99 single espresso is consistent with deflation.
You will not buy it. The coffee shop will go out of business. The owner will lose his source of income, and he will lay off his staff. This effect will trickle through the economy.
That is not deflation but more like stagflation.
If there are a lot of coffee shops that charge more than the average person can afford, that is probably a sign that the economy the coffee shops are operating is inefficient.
The reason why the coffee shop won’t go out of business right away is because customers have access to credit cards. When a customer pays with a credit card, the coffee shop sees this as evidence of the customer’s ability to pay and will make no effort to bring costs down.
Maybe, but the credit card company will soon have problems if many people do this.
Unlike with student loans, mortgages and other types of loans, there are so many debt restructuring programs and debt collection programs for credit card debt that credit card companies have a low risk of losing money. Credit card debt seems to be a very profitable for the finance industry.
You might be right about credit card debt being profitable for the finance industry, especially with interest rates as high as credit cards have been charging recently.
I am not happy about these restructuring programs. They are designed to keep fairly poor people in debt indefinitely. In fact, similar programs have existed in the past for student loans, sometimes leaving young people with more debt, and more accumulated interest, than they would have had without them.
We need approaches that keep people away from debt, particularly credit cards when they are more than just a convenience for payment.
Come on drb. Nobody is saying we are in deflation yet. Can you please stop with the internal politics.
Dennis inflation and deflation are mutually exclusive macroeconomic monetary phenomena, as stated many times. What you are referring to are price increases and decreases.
Expecting logic from a delusionist is futile
I know he can do it.
Only if looking at the same commodity/item. E.g. Automobiles and oil.
Dennis L.
I want Trump to add Antarctica to the list. If the US does not take it the capitalists of China might take it or the Christians of Russia will take it.
Certainly, there is something in Antarctica we can develop and use. But without enough diesel, it would be hard to get to. Also, diesel tends to gel up in cold temperatures.
Yes, winter diesel does not work below -30C. regular does not work below -20C.
Probably the -30C type works well enough.
It depends. It costs more to start with. I was unable to work, IIRC, only one week in Jan. 2024. It dipped to -38, and the winter diesel froze. Then it warmed up, but the diesel was still frozen. I bet in Antarctica you can use that diesel about 6 months a year. Same as Yakutia.
Somehow, penguins seem to live in Antartica, despite these conditions. Ecosystems can adapt to pretty bad conditions, but our human systems are somewhat limited.
having a baby and rearing it between your feet would be socially inhibiting
Antarctica isn’t quite so cold along the coasts where the penguins live as it is in the interior.
During the winter months (June to August), temperatures can drop to around -20°C to -30°C (-4°F to -22°F). In summer (December to February), temperatures are milder, usually ranging from -2°C to 8°C (28°F to 46°F).
It’s not much colder where the penguins stand with their young on the feet as it can get at English or Scottish football matches, where in Norman’s time, spectators used to stand for hours in the middle of winter in their overcoats and cloth caps, often with no roof for protection from the elements.
Assuming Norman’s time could more or less rhyme with b&w cinema and TV – in those dreamy archaic times people’s wardrobe in the north had to be quite different. Coats bellow buttocks, no airy jeans, no cheapo plastic shoes, instead wool everywhere and in layers..
What are the workarounds for 50-70C bellow zero evidently ongoing operations ? Gasoline only (no diesel option)? Some sort of thermal envelope around the engine itself (and add components)? Additives? Engine conversions – swapping plastic / rubber parts for metal ? There must be entire ~industry already existing for this task..
Yes, most of my tractors have winter jackets. they honestly don’t help when it is -30- for two days. diesel with additives is winter diesel. i think in greenland they will have to work with gasoline only. at -30 also transmission and brake fluids freeze. the russians have a scheme with nuclear icebreakers and floating nuclear plants. the usa do not have those technologies.
China already has the pandas.
We can’t let them take the penguins too.
That would give them a near monopoly on cute black and white animals!
That’s right, Tim, just ignore the zebras. Ignoring a relevant species in your statements verges on hate language, so be careful you don’t get a bevy of London bobbies flying over to Japan to arrest you.
=============
Meanwhile conflict is spreading in the English countryside, and war has broken out.
Watch from 11:43 to 13:08
https://youtu.be/uUS_EPSNNtY
Yikes! I forgot the zebras, and the orcas, and the Dalmatians! Hide me! Hide me!
Have you seen this meme, which is doing the rounds lately?
https://www.instagram.com/p/DOJdhKHAHwV/
This article seems to reflect another part of the musical chairs scenario that is taking place.
The less fossil fuels and uranium that Ukraine uses, the more that is left for others. Ukraine is not part of the world’s core areas. Reducing the usage of outlying areas leaves more for the core.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-declares-permanent-state-emergency-energy-sector
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced that the government is declaring a state of emergency in the energy sector after repeated Russian strikes damaged heating and power facilities during freezing winter conditions.
“A permanent coordination headquarters will be established to address the situation in the city of Kyiv. Overall, a state of emergency will be declared for Ukraine’s energy sector,” Zelensky confirmed after coming out of a crisis meeting.
The country will try to get more imported electricity from elsewhere, but their grid is degraded.
Zerohedge shows an amazing chart looking at the percentage change in median list price on homes for sale for the metropolitan areas with the highest illegal immigrant populations. In 14 out of 20 cities, median list prices decreased in 2025, compared to 2024. In 3 of the 20 metropolitan areas, median list prices stayed flat. In 3 metropolitan areas, prices increased.
The three metropolitan areas with price increases were
Seattle, Philadelphia, and Chicago
(By the way, Minneapolis metropolitan area is not on this list. It doesn’t have enough illegal migrants, or perhaps it is too small overall.)
The article notes that the three metropolitan areas with increases in median home prices are all sanctuary cities.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/are-deportations-making-affordability-winning-issue-gop
Democrats entered 2026 confident they could make “affordability” the rallying cry that would win back suburban voters and propel them back into the majority. But an inconvenient political twist has upended that plan: Donald Trump is the one actually delivering on affordability – and doing it in ways his opponents are almost certain to despise.
The foundation of this shift is the administration’s aggressive crackdown on immigration. ICE deportations under Trump have sharply reduced the number of illegal migrants in the country – which, according to the White House – is easing the enormous housing demand that exploded under Joe Biden thanks to his open borders policies.
In short, rents and home prices in many major metro areas are becoming more affordable. Though we would of course note that correlation is not necessarily causation.
The end of the world is just going on. What should I do?
Nothing. Let the greedy humans finish the job: depletion, pollution, extermination of the humans.
Look for the good in every day. Stop trying to make detailed plans for the future; do what appears to be doable today. Give thanks for what you have. Strengthen ties with family and friends. Stay away from added debt.
It could go on like this for another 10 years. You just don’t know.
I enjoy walks with the dog, sunsets.. good food and a warm home in the winter .
Most people I know can’t put the dots together; liberals think they can move to Spain or Europe and live happily ever after. Conservatives think everything is awesome!
The plants are the best friends. They will remain here after humans. They are directly connected with the energy from the Sun.
Imagine that silence after the humans…
One more tangential on the historic weather perspective..
If you stop / pause that slide at [4]sec – it rather rhymes closely with the Antiquity (~Roman Empire) distribution of settlements there.. You can see snow free Crimea, Greece, most of Italy south of Alps, Vienna’s greater snow free island, Gaul – FR south of Benelux/DE, Britain w.out Scotland, Spain, Balkans south of mountain range again, W. Turkey, Levant, ..
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/guido-cioni-05602551_europe-just-had-its-largest-snow-cover-extent-activity-7416441644033585152-LF42
Interesting point! The border of the Roman Empire, at least in Austria, lies at prominent geological points, e.g. the Danube, although in practice the border may have been different, because supposedly people were cutting wood on the other side of the Danube.
In the Alps and Eastern Alps there is “snow safety”, that is, vacationers can be sure that they can ski.
I am very sure that the Romans were not afraid of the cold.
Marcus Aurelius died in Vienna.
Yes, Vienna although a border line outpost, was definitely more on the scale-progress towards proper Roman city already – they enjoyed: hypocaust (central floor heating) and thermal bath, ..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vindobona
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noricum
–
While say from this map, which also tends to rhyme with the general snow line – many of those military camp-outposts towards north were perhaps able to function in some limited fashion throughout winter – but not as proper cities connected via roads yet at least before ~200AD.
Supposedly, as per article, they ran water pipe system 17km in length from nearby forested hilly area ~400-600msl located to the east of Vienna.
Looking at the maps this is fairly well watered place at the minimum say 100km2 at favorable gradient (if they did not tap directly into ~largish river-creeks near valleys up there).
So, “only” 100km2 (perhaps double that) catchment area of hilly forest – meadows supported 20k city people in running potable water, sewage system flushing etc..
Error – meant to the West side of the city..obviously..
Modern maps suck:
Well, it was (must have been) likely way simpler – as on the 19th century maps there are depicted running water-wheels directly bellow the hills range – so the Romans likely tapped into the creek right ~there or similar advantageous site nearby as well..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalksburg
Jr, could you please put together coherent and readable sentences?
JJ> it’s hard to read I know – that’s old bad habit from the times of expensive (pre)internet – or rather “BBS” at that time..
The United States tends to have a bigger, cold area. This is a link to a page that shows a planting zone map.
https://plantagreenhouses.com/blogs/learn/what-planting-zone-am-i-in-understanding-zones-for-a-thriving-greenhouse-garden
I live in Zone 8a, in the northern third of the state of Georgia (GA). We rarely get snow. But colder areas do tend to get snow. So a lot of the US gets quite cold, and sometimes gets snow.
Of course, there can be other limits besides temperature limits:
Lack of fresh water.
Lack of aquifer water.
Declining soil fertility.
Top soil that blows away.
A shortage of specific minerals. Lack of tin seems to have stopped the bronze age.
” . . . So, can it be a coincidence that the most
54:17 cataclysmic eruption of Hekla we know about was the one that took place
54:21 sometime around the Year 1100 BC, right as the Bronze Age collapse reached its
54:27 height? This eruption is known as Hekla 3.“?
Kevin Walmsley reinforcing what we know about BRICS Countries buying gold, and de-emphasizing US$
But with the proviso you have to (be able) to earn such US$ in the first place. Besides, looking at pre 2000-today it has risen ~10x while general inflation since that era was 300-500% and perhaps way more in certain areas like RE..
That’s (also) why the real bubble with ~10 000x gains or more occurred (was nudged / allowed to) in various paper markets incl. tech stocks instead..
Neil Oliver suggests nations are behaving like preppers. They are trying to grab as much resource as possible before the big event.
well well well
you mean i was right all along??
Yes you were right.
well keep it to yourself or you’ll be outcast from polite society
You were right, there, Norman! 🙂
Norm, you made the news…are you happy now?
https://theweek.com/political-satire/1023794/the-end-is-near
lol
thanks
The United States is now engaged in what I am calling “smash-and-grab” diplomacy in Venezuela, and it will perhaps soon do the same in Greenland, a territory of the Kingdom of Denmark. In case you have never heard the term, smash-and-grab refers to robberies undertaken by smashing store windows and/or display cases and taking what is readily available without concern about alarms going off or people on the street or in the store seeing what the robbers are doing. —Kurt Cobb .
https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2026/01/venezuela-and-greenland-smash-and-grab.html
US Bobsled team? Wth?
Future gold medal winners
An apt metaphor for the country at-large right now.
“Morgan Downey
@morgan_downey
Why would Saudi Arabia this morning allegedly refuse to allow US military aircraft to overfly their country on the way to Iran?
On paper, Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) are mortal enemies.
The reality is that in the 2026 oil market, the Saudis need the Ayatollah to stay.
Here are $44 billion reasons why.
If Iran sanctions are lifted, 160 million barrels of Iranian oil stored in floating tankers flood the market immediately. An additional 1-2 million barrels per day of Iranian production follows.
That pushes oil from $60 to $40.
Under $94, the Saudi welfare state is already upside down. At $40, it is insolvent.
Normally, Saudi would just cut production to save the price if an increase in Iranian oil came back to the market. They can’t. Why? Because, setting Iran aside, a wall of supply is hitting the market in 2026.
If Saudi cuts, they just hand market share to the class of 2026. New, cheap oil that break even at $40.
The Class of 2026 (The Wall of Supply) in barrels per day and their breakeven prices:
Brazil: +400k ($35)
Guyana: +200k ($35-45)
Canada: +200k ($45)
US/Others: +200k bpd ($40)
Total new 2026 supply: 1 Million bpd. This new supply soaks up all 2026 oil demand growth and does is much cheaper than Saudi can.
So, how does Riyadh survive 2026 with oil at $60 and a $44 billion deficit?
They are doing three things:
Max out credit cards They issued $12B in bonds in Jan 2026 alone.
Pawn the jewelry: Selling more shares of Aramco to pay the bills.
Cancel the renovation: Neom is shrinking. “The Line” was supposed to be 170km. It is now just 2.4km.
So Saudi Arabia doesn’t want an Iran war. But they also don’t want an Iran peace. They need Iran to stay sanctioned, isolated, and offline.
It has nothing to do with Shia vs. Sunni. It has everything to do with solvency vs. bankruptcy.
The enemy of my sanctioned enemy is… my enemy.“?
https://x.com/morgan_downey/status/2011436161621791030?s=20
Good points: “It has nothing to do with Shia vs. Sunni. It has everything to do with solvency vs. bankruptcy.”
Given the state of the market, it can’t absorb very much oil supply. There are too many people with low wages around the world.
By the way, Morgan Downey is someone I corresponded with a fair amount between 2009 and 2014.
Thanks postkey . I had been trying to track this guy for the last few days . I found this post of his on Iranian oil quality and other items interesting .
1. Iran runs on natural gas. Iranian power plants, their heating, their industry. It all relies on the massive South Pars field. While some natural gas production is “dry” (the nat gas comes out of the ground without any oil), South Pars is a wet gas reservoir. You cannot produce the natural gas at South Pars without also lifting a liquid byproduct called condensate.
2. Condensate: Condensate is ultra-light crude oil (API 53° in this case). Think of it as raw gasoline.
The good: It is valuable if sold fresh.
The bad: It is volatile. If you store it in a steel tank in the tropics for 12 months, it doesn’t just evaporate. It oxidizes.
The ugly: It becomes gummy. Refineries reject it because it fouls their heat exchangers.
https://x.com/morgan_downey/status/2010703587853094950
I think that if Iranians were clever (expecially young people) they would help reduce consume of gas internally (which they waste in excess, because they keep heating inside building high and they don’t have any insultation, just to make an example).
They shouĺd find a way to reduce inflation, receiving help on how they manage the problem from Russia and China.
Russia and China should help distributing ultra light crude through their logistics, otherwise if Iran falls they will have a problem themselves.
Iran politicians should ease restrictions on women and have a more balanced position about them, like they have in Russia and China, forgetting the West whose position about women has become non sense and contradictory.
Iran politicians should start a very strong action against corruption and against export smuggling of Oil.
Young Iranian people should understand that they will never receive help by the West at the moment, but if they want to have a relationship with the West, they should on the contrary help young European generations to understand how wonderful is Iran.
Young Iranians should go to study in Russia, if they want an European style education and prefer to avoid China and Russia should welcome Iranians students.
Those breakeven prices seem low to me. And I don’t agree with the geopolitical analysis, to put it mildly. He thinks Iran can be regime changed without blowing up the global oil industry. It can’t be That’s old news. If the US tries then Iran will permanently prevent three-quarters of Saudi exports from using Hormuz and bomb Saudi oil infrastructure, for starters. That is why Saudi Arabia is refusing. Iran will battle through what’s coming and will eventually have sanctions lifted and get back on the petrodollar by its own choosing because that is where the value will be at. Because that is what the civilization needs. This is all a misdirection play to presumably facilitate the coup against Trump. If Trump was actually a danger to the world’s oil industry he’d be a dead man already.
It is good to have several opinions on controversial topics. I am not sure we really know.
On his first state visit to Greenland, Trump may be shot with an explosive harpoon by an angry lone Eskimo hiding behind an icy knoll.
Was is posted here already or elsewhere.. short video of supposedly youngish Greenland residents asked on camera:
~
Q: Would you consider Greenland joining US for direct payout to each citizen $10k?
A: Uhm eh No..
Q: What about $100k then?
A: All smiles. YES!
You can’t make this up:
Estimates show that it would cost the US $700 billion to buy Greenland.
Meanwhile, the US spent $1.2 TRILLION on Federal debt interest expense in 2025 alone.
The US spends 1.7 Greenlands PER YEAR just on interest expense.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2011477328082112575/photo/1
And interest expense seems to just keep increasing!
The Greenlanders must stay firm and refuse to accept Trump’s stingy offer.
They must hold out for a cool million each in US$!
Whatever happened to democracy?? Isn’t that what the USA use to stand for?? Providing we forget about the kingdoms they allow where there is no democracy of course, like Saudi, Qatar etc..
You could put joining the USA to a vote amongst Greenlanders, isn’t that how the system portrayed by the USA is meant to work??
OK sarc off…
They could vote on whether to be bought out for 100K each. Wonder if everyone is trying to conceive right now.
For the moment the Orangutan has backed down .
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-withdrawing-some-personnel-qatar-air-base-over-iran-threat
From your link:
There are reports that President Trump is listening to the non-interventionists in his cabinet, as he says Wednesday afternoon he’s been told that the killing in Iran is stopping, and with no plan for executions. WTI futures immediately dropped on the newswires:
WTI fell from USD 62.30 to lows of 59.80/bbl over 7 minutes.
Brent fell from 66.80 to 64.20 over the same time frame.
With Trump noting Iran has no plans for executions, it drastically reduces the chances of the US attacking Iran, particularly a kinetic attack.
At the risk that I sound like Kulm: the Saudis, with all due respect, are an ancient people of nomadic herders, the Persians are an educated cultural people with many thousands of years of tradition, about the size of Germany. And then on top of that with huge, perhaps overestimated oil reserves?
Undoubtedly, this country would play a dominant role in the region with the world’s largest oil deposits. Especially at a time when the buyer’s market is changing into a seller’s market, this is obviously viewed critically.
To repeat: buyer’s market changing into seller’s market.
As in, in a best-case country like the US, a citizen or greencard holder above 16 or older and a vehicle registration (the buyer), gets something like 4 gallons a week. Everyone else gets 1 gallon a week. This is for the end consumer market. The dollar cost per gallon might still be something like 4 bucks but in real terms it’ll be like paying $25 a gallon. Wealth gonna be measured in jerry cans and bottles of both Stabil and two-stroke oil. Diesel will transmute into unobtanium.
That’s an interesting thread of thought.
All sorts of unexpected mixed up priorities could / would suddenly materialize..
Say, as the late middle ages – renaissance people (plague) started to grasp the power of disinfection – and mostly used higher% of vinegar with some degree of success. So, the little industry around that (demand) emerged..
Most interesting though will be the degree of (dis-)continued longer distance trade aka how much the respective (blocks of / indiv countries) keep, slow decay or advance the civ. Similar play as the “dark ages” vs. Byzantium (E. Roman Empire) soldiered on..
Obviously, ~uniform global collapse in sync is also a strong %%scenario contender.
~uniform global collapse is the only contender because this is a global civilization. So really the ~uniform part is redundant because global means everything and everything means a uniform.
Yes, should have been written more clearly, but you did not address the core point/Q:? properly.
Uh, ok, so you claim tech-civilization autarky – soldiering on in some enclaves/macro-region of the world is impossible, even if meant as protracted stair-case collapse profile say in centuries?
In other words you see only global collapse in ~fast sync guaranteed. Well, it’s just a %probability after-all. So, you could loose that bet in the end eventually.. Although it can take place beyond our times eventually.
I do personally score it quite low-ish but NOT denying such outcome categorically..
ps for one illustrative thing – If you look at BOZO in charge of Wincloze11 – there will be (are) alternatives.. similarly in energy sector etc.
that’s usually the motivation for rupture – going solo – when watching mistakes of others (former trade-biz-tech-transfer partners)..
“The barrier isn’t just bureaucratic; it is thermodynamic. Greenland spans 2.17 million square kilometers, 80% of which is covered by ice. The “unit economics” of mining here are atrocious compared to competitors in Australia or Brazil.
The Infrastructure Gap: There are no roads connecting Greenland’s towns. Every piece of heavy machinery must be shipped in by sea or flown in by helicopter. Industry analysis suggests that developing a mine in the Arctic incurs capital costs (CapEx) 150% to 300% higher than in temperate regions.
The Power Problem: There is no grid to plug into. A mine requires a dedicated power plant, likely importing diesel in a zone where fuel freezes, or building renewables in a place with three months of darkness.
Ian Lange, an economist at the Colorado School of Mines, put it bluntly: “Everybody’s just been running to get to this endpoint [of production]. And if you go to Greenland, it’s like you’re going back to the beginning.”
If the EU plans to double its investment in these projects to satisfy U.S. demands, it represents a massive subsidy. It is a transfer of public funds to make a project commercially viable, not because the market demands it, but because the politics require it. We are essentially watching Europe offer to build a money-losing mine to buy geopolitical stability.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-Greenland-Became-the-Most-Dangerous-Real-Estate-on-Earth.html
Given the conditions you describe for Greenland, it is hard to imagine that anything can be extracted from the ground at a reasonable cost.
Of course, anything extracted there will need to be shipped for processing to the US or some equally distant location. Shipping costs will be outrageous, assuming the diesel is available.
it appears that everything trump does right now is not helping the usa weather the upcoming downturn.
“What downturn? Asset prices are going vertical.”
— That Investor Guy
Current situation:
1. Stocks = Record high
2. Gold = Record high
3. Silver = Record high
4. Home Prices = Record high
5. Copper = Record high
6. Platinum = Record high
7. Money Market Funds = Record high
8. US Debt = Record high
9. Deficit Spending = Record high
10. Household Debt = Record high
When everything hits a record high at the same exact time, it’s not a coincidence.
Fiat currencies are depreciating.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2011288243191308381
espresso, croissant, beef and eggs also at record high…
drb> since you kind of repeatedly mention the list – is it related to your personal preference (shopping basket) or rather some general / msm’s favorite list of items to track inflation ?
Yes, it could be unjustly seen as /high-horse/ advice but many people don’t consume the first three items at all or very seldomly (incl. me) .. so what.
And on the 4th – it’s possible to economize somewhat or wait for their peak season – then use/eat them more.
However, over recent years hi-q ed. honey, nuts, plum jam, ~fullgrain-artisan bread.. spiked up considerably which is the problem for real human-oids out there.. Luckily, there is still notable over production of milk and the whole chain of products out of it..
(bonus advice: don’t ever consume milk in bulk from ~lowlands it’s way more toxic..)
personal experience when i visited in spring, plus what my daughter tells me.
>> That’s not asset appreciation, that’s currency depreciation
Agree.
It is possible that Trump just wants to create a fantasy or hope for the markets. This also applies to Venezuela.
Great point, lifting up spirits and all that jazz..
In a way US manically lashing out = still perceived as relevant vs other countries / alliances.
However, that internal NATO skirmish development – surprised me a lot – I’d expect something like that occurring not sooner say by mid 2030s .. In other words some of the US factions are very hard pressed for the time-factor nowadays (energy, internal politics re-alignment, ..) ..
ps have you seen that ~double ” f.off ” scene during recent visit inside Ford’s car assembly plant, lolz, well we are definitely within a new era now.. , “mano a mano” govs attitude vs pop..
Yahoo finance was censoring my attempts to link or even mention DTM’s “surplus energy economics” blog.
I have talked about completely controlled society a few times
It is impossible to reach the next level of civilization without a world govt, restricting the use of resources by peoples who do not belong, and a complete micromanagement of resources to the last molecule, not going anything to waste.
Trump’s resource grab is too little, too late. Should have never allowed the Shah and the King of Saudi Arabia
No quarters whatsoever to the third world
That would have brought civilization to a higher ground long ago
kulm
before you start waxing lyrical about a ‘controlled society. and higher civ”, an similar claptrap.
consider this.
i have just been staring in disbelief at a picture of Kristi Noem, giving a speech on a podium…
And on the podium are the following words:
ONE OF OURS, ALL OF YOURS
Do you know what that implies?
Don’t Tread on Me?
What mine is mine, and what yours is negotiable (if not, we’ll take it)….the Kulm law of higher civilization (or jungle).
a lot of people dont understand, and wont see, what the world is facing
It’s facing the same thing it’s always faced.
On every continent you will find people living by the motto
“the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”
whether they know it or not.
The average person cheers on the strong and boos the weak for being weak.
you are quite correct, nobody,—except for one little detail…..
in the past , empires became strong and expanded through a single fact—they had access to surplus energy sources, and they used that surplus energy to grab even more energy resouces from weaker people.
‘infinite expansion”
the british empire was a perfect case in point….but there are lots more….
we have now reached the stage where there is no more access to cheap surplus energy…anywhere,…
the solution???
infinite wars/expansion (Ukraine-Venezueala-Greenland–) over what is seen to be available—-and infinite debt to cover up reality… (hence the $38 trn USA debt)…
if you want one thread of common sense and reality, read up on what Carney is doing in Canada…
Sad, but unfortunately true.
Norm be deep in leftist conspiracy culture now. I love it. Norm be part of the final solution that Triangulates.
How does the Hand get a cross-party national socialism in the back door? Easy. By making the world think that the administration that national socialism is replacing are ‘nazis.’ And before that it made everyone think that the Biden administration were ‘nazis’ too. Because that’s what it takes in light of the Holocaust Industrial Complex having ruled the roost for so long.
‘Nazis’ –> ‘Nazis’ –> America First National Socialists
It’s like pulling teeth.
Nasa was partially founded by socialists of a national variety…
US took some German scientists, USSR took some German scientists, FR/UK re-hired only token few remaining scraps.. , some individuals also ended up in S. America, Africa and ME but generally re-focusing on tangential stuff like jet propulsion, short range missiles etc.
So, NASA was partly staffed by ns cadre but funded by federal govs.
reante
if i could figure out what you were going on about i would reply to you
A warm welcome to Club Conspironut. Mind the gap. It’s rarebit for supper, alright love?
i repeat first comment
Sorry Norm.
The DHS sign on the podium has intentionally plausible deniability. Its formal link to the Third Reich is dubious at best. So at the level of political theater it is MAGA trolling the Demonrats such that the polarized Demonrats believe that it is a thinly veiled conspiracy by MAGA to model themselves after the Gestapo.
On the level above that, and because of the majority and climbing disapproval ratings, it is the Hand that conceived of and implemented that little piece of theater such that MAGA continues to get run off a political cliff.
The fact that MAGA would make such a poor political calculation, with the signage, is just not real organic politics, because it’s a ludicrous calculation and under normal organic political circumstances, numerous public relations people are paid well to test-out any remotely controversial party optics with focus groups before rolling them out.
In a time of decreasing resources, robbery is a method to succeed. Nothing new under the sun.
That you sell it to an “elite” as a recipe for success, not even.
The question is how far you can cannibalize the neighbor, not the colony, without it hitting you yourself. The USA has more experience in this than Europe, although they have also been able to do it very well there.
This is certainly not what Kulm means by the further development of civilization.
He certainly means solving the energy and resource problems as well as colonizing the universe.
I agree with this goal, but I am afraid it is not possible due to physical limitations, let’s say divine laws.
Kulm apparently thinks that if we had not invested in population growth, but more in research, we would have been in space long ago.
Of course, such considerations are legitimate! However, I am afraid that such decisions would not have produced the desired result in the past, nor will they do so in the future.
Had the fusion reactor been further developed, would we have invested more?
As debated previously – fusion reactors are fully developed already, the issue is the elevated front end costs vs output, hence the very slow build-up of the int-joined prototype. Moreover the renewables intermezzo burned up gigantic amounts of capital in the meantime.
And again for cost – complexity reason those who could go solo on fusion rather opted for now into cheaper side-steps like breeder reactors and or (~same) continued build-up of traditional fleet of NPPs (RU, CHN, ..).
global pop is what it is, because we do what we do best—and enjoy most
ie—food and fornication…
there is no ”investment” considered—nature intends that we do exactly that, and we follow natures orders.
even if the fairytale of fusion came true, we would still do the above, because increased energy availability would inevitably increase global population, or heat the planet to such an extent that people could not live here—-either would be posiible….
the energy and resource problem cannot be solved in modern terms, because both are useless unless rendered into commercial viable objects.
ie—oil and rare earths/metal etc only become viable commodities when they are converted into –say–a tv set, which i then exchange money for.
that money then goes to the oil/metals producers, who dig up more—to make more tv sets, which people buy—and so on.
most people see only one part of the equation—the getting of resources (donnie has this problem too, as do most politicos)…
reduce world pop—and there will be no one to complete the buying circle…hence no need for resources.—1 billion people would not have the means to do so.
Over-simplication maybe—-but that really is how our living/commercial evnvironment functions….
Agree in general.
Fusion is not a fairy-tail it does exist in smaller scale labs and advanced full body simulations.
Imagine the first internal combustion prototypes going in rough: cough, cough cycle.. vs. ~150yrs later in 2025 smooth out electronics controlled 3valve (~impossibility) gasoline engine..
More or less correct comparison.
But as alluded now, fusion at GW scale is too complex-costly for the output, while there are cheaper (already paid for) less eco/%eff. technologies available.
Jan wrote
“In a time of decreasing resources, robbery is a method to succeed. Nothing new under the sun.
That you sell it to an “elite” as a recipe for success, ”
I just read in the comments section of Zerohedge article an older American’s “career advice” for younger adults that crime is the only thing that pays. He said if you have enough money you can pay good lawyers to keep you out of prison…..and given Trump’s actions in Venezuela and now Greenland. (where U.S. based billionaires have already made significant investments) it seems like breaking the law is the only way to get ahead.
Jan wrote
“The question is how far you can cannibalize the neighbor, not the colony, without it hitting you yourself” That is the question. How much can a country steal and extort without being robbed or extorted.
America and its allies are formidable but they aren’t bulletproof. Others can steal from them and extort them.
Kristi Noem is married but she is open to a fling if you make a good impression, Norman.
guest
there is a fine line between being smart and being silly in the use of words….
if i may say so, you need identification training….
No quarters whatsoever to the third world
No dimes either
Not even a red cent
Not even a penny, before the conversion.
In Germany, high school teachers are encouraged to educate the children not according to the Humboldt educational ideal, but to German virtues of punctuality, diligence and obedience. If one complains that the majority of people do not contribute to the development of civilization, one must acknowledge that they are being explicitly slowed down. Of course, citizens also elect such a policy.
There is a second aspect: all groundbreaking inventions on glass, heat resistance, optical properties, were made by Otto Schott in Jena. Since then, thousands of experts worldwide have been working with more knowledge than Schott, without coming up with a new invention. It looks as if there are limits to the possibility of invention.
So it is possible that thousands of Galileis will also bring nothing further. There could be natural limits bringing civilisations to a higher ground.
A problem easily solvable by denying all Asians a chance to study in the higher institutions and treat any papers from them as trash.
Dogs aren’t that smart. I saw a clinical study done in Sweden in the 90’s where they would put a big bowl of beef jerky in a makeshift tunnel and as the dogs would rush toward the bowl, they would drop a guillotine blade right in front of the bowl and scare the dog while blocking it from the bowl. Then they would repeat the test and half the dogs still kept going for the beef jerky and sure enough, the blade would fall and a lot of dogs were dismembered as well as completely halved at their rib cages, screaming and yelping as they passed away.
No, the claim about a 1990s Swedish clinical study involving dogs, beef jerky, and a guillotine blade that dismembered or halved the animals is not true. This story is a hoax or urban legend with no basis in verified scientific research or historical records.
Extensive searches through reliable sources—including academic journals, animal welfare reports, and news archives—reveal no evidence of such an experiment. While Sweden has conducted animal research, including controversial dental studies on dogs (e.g., experiments at the University of Gothenburg involving Labrador retrievers), these involved tooth removal and implant testing, not lethal guillotine devices or food-motivated trauma traps.
Sweden has strict animal welfare laws under the Animal Welfare Act (1988), which prohibits unnecessary suffering and requires ethical oversight for animal experiments. The described scenario would violate these regulations and is inconsistent with documented research practices.
The story appears to be a grotesque fabrication, possibly conflating real concerns about animal testing with fictional horror elements
This sounds like the sort of falsity that a person who likes to shock would mischievously relay. The former commenter Fast Eddy comes to mind in this respect.
Thorium nuclear from Amsterdam.
There first test reactor will be in Switzerland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZgL67lN2NM
The hero of thorium Kirk Sorensen. The future is bright at least in China.
The thorium reactor companies can speed their build out by giving 10% of their companies to the Trump children. Then the mad king will push it.
Of course, we don’t at this point have a thorium supply chain, either. And it will take years to build these reactors and improve them, using fossil fuels (especially diesel). It is easy to count our chickens before they are hatched.
Also I believe that there is a big problem with corrosion
There are lots of “details” like this that need to be worked out. I have been told that usually there are four steps in adopting a new technology. First test it at laboratory scale. Then ramp it up in steps to larger sizes to see what goes wrong and what can be optimized. This process typically takes years.
I thought Oak Ridge built a small molten salt thorium reactor in about 1970? Maybe 5 to 10 MW(e).
I seem to recall the reactor wasn’t much use for N weapons. So the idea was shelved.
I expect that the early model didn’t inexpensively make electricity, either. And we didn’t have our own thorium supply, to make matters worse.
https://whatisnuclear.com/thorium-myths.html
EIA forecasts the great American shale oil production decline has begun
https://x.com/SheDrills/status/2011161618554765628
According to this chart Jan 26 is around 13.8 projected to be around 13.1 by July 27.
That’s around 5% drop in less than two years.
https://percentagecalculator.net/
It seems like it was a year ago that the EIA made a similar forecast for declining US oil production. It turned out to be wrong. Note that this is not just shale. It includes offshore production, and other things.
US oil production has risen practically every month this year. In fact, US oil production in October 2025 (last month shown) is the highest ever.
The places where production has risen are the following:
New Mexico (biggest contributor)
West Virginia (small)
Federal Offshore (Gulf)
Montana (small)
With refineries closing and a major pipeline closing in California, I expect we will see a fall in oil production in California in 2026. No place for the oil to go. This could underly the fall in production.
EIA might be right, but they could be wrong again. Improving technology could help production, but the longer-term low price will hinder production. We will see.
IIRC , Mike Shellman and G&R forecast the peak and decline accurately to the month for US peak( basically shale peak) . This year will be interesting because shale wells decline rapidly and the tier 1 is over and so are the DUC . What is left now is tier 2 and tier 3 ( goat grazing pastures ) . Further if oil prices remain low then more production becomes uneconomical at a faster pace to produce . Wait and watch .
So, would you estimate the “real shock” realization incoming not sooner than 2027-8 there ? Obviously, insider’s move could cause wider panic earlier..
Like I said ” Wait and watch ” . Markets move on sentiments and narratives . This was the first call . When will it catch speed , I have no idea . When will be the ” tipping point ” ? Look at silver as a case study .
“ 13 Jan 2014:
The following points seem clear from a review of the literature: (i) the EROI of global oil production is roughly 17 and declining, while that for the USA is 11 and declining; (ii) the EROI of ultra-deep-water oil and oil sands is below 10; (iii) the relation between the EROI and the price of oil is inverse and exponential; (iv) as EROI declines below 10, a point is reached when the relation between EROI and price becomes highly nonlinear; and (v) the minimum oil price needed to increase the oil supply in the near term is at levels consistent with levels that have induced past economic recessions. From these points, I conclude that, as the EROI of the average barrel of oil declines, long-term economic growth will become harder to achieve and come at an increasingly higher financial, energetic and environmental cost. “?
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsta/article-abstract/372/2006/20130126/58973/The-implications-of-the-declining-energy-return-on?redirectedFrom=fulltext
I am afraid I am not a fan of EROI analyses. Oil from shale seems to have a favorable EROI, but heavy oil generally does not.
As we add more oil from shale, average EROI improves. But we need diesel to run the economy. And EROIs for renewables are absurdly overstated.
It seems like the “social bonds” that made Pax Americana possible
was the proliferation of loans.
Peace treaties, and trade agreements seem more like debt agreements in retrospect.
Without the expansion of debt, the only way productive people will give you their stuff is by taking it against their will.
What would be telling is if we could catalog the crime rates or violence rates in places where there’re no financial services available,
You could very well be right.
I have often thought that debt began with hunter-gatherers.
You hunt, and I will gather. At the end of the day, we will share what we have produced. Both have to keep their parts of the agreement for it to work.
David Graeber, in Debt: The First 5,000 years, claims that debt came before money. Clay tablets were use to record the value of what people brought to a temple to trade. Credit was given in some easily understood measure, such as bushels of the local grain, and was recorded on a clay tablet. The person with the credit could then go and “shop” for other goods and services that he might buy. The goods for sale would have prices expressed in the same units as the credit.
Your post reminds me of a joke I heard about mathematics being invented so that kings could keep track of their possessions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQl75OtUSq4
1 MIN AGO: Trump Declares Emergency Powers as Republicans Push Back in Shock (23:15)
187,312 views Jan 12, 2026
“China has just made a move that could reshape the global economy for years. By quietly selling U.S. Treasury bonds and reducing its exposure to the U.S. dollar system, China is sending a clear message to Washington and the rest of the world. In this video, we explain why China is dumping U.S. debt, how this challenges the dollar’s role as the world reserve currency, and what it could mean for inflation, U.S. debt, and your everyday life.
“We break down how the United States has benefited from the “dollar privilege” since leaving the gold standard in 1971, how trade deficits were financed through Treasury bonds, and why moves like the sanctions on Russia’s reserves in 2022 pushed China to rethink holding more than $1.3 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. We also look at how BRICS countries, gold buying by central banks, and de‑dollarization are slowly changing the structure of global financial power.
“In this video, you will learn:
– Why China has been steadily cutting its U.S. Treasury bond holdings
– How dollar‑based assets can be used as financial pressure through sanctions
– Why central banks are buying gold and looking for alternatives to the dollar
– How BRICS, local currency trade, and CIPS challenge the SWIFT‑dominated system
– What U.S. debt, deficits, and Fed money printing mean for inflation and ordinary people
– Possible future scenarios: multi‑currency world, currency blocs, or deeper U.S. fiscal strain”
“Richard” (who is he — AI?) — is this credible?
This is AI. Believe it at your own risk.
We need to look for independent verification of any allegations made in these videos. They might be mostly right, but we don’t know.
I have heard many pieces of this before, so parts of it are likely credible. But the timing could be way off.
To subsidize or not subsidize the huge amount of electricity needed by AI. I don’t think we can get ahead using a money losing approach. China seems to be doing better.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-says-tech-giants-must-bear-cost-data-center-electricity-microsoft-joins-openai
Trump Says Tech Giants Must Bear Cost Of Data Center Electricity, As Microsoft Joins OpenAI In Demanding Subsidies
.. the future finally caught up to the present, and last week we noted that according to Bloomberg soaring retail electricity prices have become a political issue in several US states, especially in PJM, the Mid-Atlantic regional grid, which as we discussed recently, is woefully under-energized.
Boy, these oligarch’s playbook is really limited. when as the last time on of them produced anything useful? they are all after taxpayer money.
It’s the last bubble of the Everything Bubble that keeps Collapse at bay. It’s not about productive value. And they’re not oligarchs because they don’t control the country. Let’s move beyond the politics.
Information technology nerds do not run any country. Too many examples of them being submissive to government authorities or other industries to make them more powerful than other big actors.
The power to force you to upgrade every three years is a hassle but not something that will bring nations to their knees.
That’s good stuff
Trump has opened too many fronts and spread himself thin . Let us enumerate .
1. Venezuela
2. Iran
3. Greenland
4. Cuba
5. ICE
6. Epstein
7 . FED
8 . Tariffs
9. Clintons
10 . China
11. Ukraine
Many others . He is biting more than he can chew . In the meanwhile he is going MIGA ( Make Iran Great Again ) . Gail quoted ad verbatim on comment 118 .
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/01/iran-riots-now-what-does-this-mean.html#comments
Isn’t this what all late-stage empires do – overreach in an attempt to maintain primacy? On the other hand, there is an enormous bureaucracy and different parts should be able to handle different projects in parallel. Whether they can, however …
You are right. Overreach might be the issue here.
Handling each of these issues independently, may seem doable, but trying to do them all at once seems impossible.
I sometimes wonder whether Trump gets any sleep.