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The Energy Institute recently published its updated energy report, the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, showing data through the year 2024. In this post, I identify trends in the new data that I consider worrying. These trends help explain the strange behaviors that we have been seeing from governments recently.
A major hidden issue is that prices never seem to rise high enough, for long enough, to prevent production of fossil fuels and other mineral resources from declining relative to what is needed for the world’s rising population. Reserve numbers appear plenty adequate but, because of affordability issues, we cannot actually extract the resources that seem to be available. We should expect declining production because low prices drive more and more fossil fuel and other mineral producers out of business.
[1] The world’s per capita affordable supply of diesel has been declining, especially since 2014.
Because of it is high energy density and ease of storage, diesel is important in many ways:
- Diesel powers a substantial share of modern agricultural equipment.
- Diesel is the fuel of the huge trucks that carry goods of all kinds.
- Diesel powers much of the world’s construction and earth-moving equipment.
- Diesel (and other similarly energy-dense but less refined fuels) allows long-distance transport by ship.
- Diesel is widely used in mining.
- Diesel powers some trains, provides backup electricity generation, and powers some irrigation pumps.
Figure 1 suggests that the supply of diesel started being constrained during the 2008-2009 recession. The decrease became more pronounced starting in 2014, which was when oil prices fell (Figure 12). In fact, this downward trend since 2014 continued into 2024. The constraint in diesel production/consumption comes through oil prices that fall too low for the producers of diesel. If prices rise, they don’t stay high for very long.
If there isn’t enough diesel, cutbacks in some applications will be needed. One new workaround for the inadequate supply of diesel seems to be a reduction of international trade through tariffs. If goods can be produced closer to where they are purchased, then perhaps the economic system can accommodate the declining availability of the diesel supply a little longer.
It should be noted that jet fuel consumption is also constrained. The type of oil used is quite similar to diesel. Transferring the transportation of goods from trucks and ships to jet aircraft is not a solution!
[2] Copper supply seems to be constrained.
There has been much discussion of transitioning to the use of more electricity and less fossil fuels. This would require both a greater build out of electricity transmission systems and more use of electric cars. Each of these uses would require more use of copper. Electric cars are reported to each require 40kg to 80kg of copper, while cars with internal combustion engines use only 20kg of copper. Building charging stations for all these cars would further add to copper needs, as would adding new transmission lines to carry the higher total electricity supply.
Figure 2 shows that even with the expected increase in demand for copper resulting from a shift toward electrification, total world extraction of copper has remained relatively flat. A major issue is that it takes a very long time to build a new copper mine. Worldwide, the average time to new production is 17.9 years. For this reason, a temporary increase in price cannot be expected to drive up production very quickly. If diesel is used in extracting copper, and diesel’s consumption is constrained, the restricted diesel supply can also be an issue in expanding the copper supply.
The new tariffs on copper, announced by President Donald Trump, seem to be intended to drive industries that use copper to look for substitute minerals. With a very long lag, the tariffs might also lead to an increase in copper production. Tariffs have more staying power than volatile price changes. There doesn’t seem to be a quick solution, however.
[3] Platinum extraction also seems to be constrained.
Platinum currently has a wide variety of applications, including use in catalytic converters, jewelry, medicine, and industry.
Some people are also hopeful that platinum will enable the wide use of hydrogen fuel cells to help meet the world’s demand for electrical power in a way that doesn’t require burning fossil fuels.
One issue mentioned in the lack of growth in platinum production is persistently low prices. New mines will not be opened unless it is clear that production will be profitable. Another source indicates that the largest producing country, South Africa, has been having problems with electrical supply and rail transportation. These problems, in turn, seem to be related to South Africa’s dwindling coal supply. Its peak coal production took place in 2014. We should not be surprised if South Africa continues to have problems producing platinum in the future.
[4] Up until this report, the Statistical Review of World Energy has used an optimistic approach to quantifying the benefits of intermittent renewable electricity.
The traditional method of evaluating energy products involves analyzing the amount of heat produced in combustion. In past years, the Statistical Review of World Energy used a method that essentially assumed that the intermittent electricity produced by renewable sources (including hydropower) completely substitutes for the equivalent dispatchable electricity generated by fossil fuels. I think of this as the “wishful thinking” methodology.
The current methodology gives renewables less credit, recognizing the fact that intermittent sources substitute primarily for the fuel that electricity generating plants would use. It is becoming increasingly clear that intermittent power doesn’t work very well on a stand-alone basis. Many types of workarounds, including batteries and backup fossil-fuel generation, are required to supplement it.
The new methodology gives about 22% more credit to nuclear power than the old method. Nuclear power can be counted on 24 hours per day. Also, like fossil fuel generation, it provides the necessary inertia (the energy stored in large rotating components such as generators, which allows the power system to maintain a steady frequency) to keep electricity moving through transmission lines. Without sufficient inertia, electrical outages similar to that recently experienced in Spain, are likely.
The revised methodology seems to align better with the methods used by the US Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency. In the past, it has been confusing with major agencies using different methodologies.
[5] With the new methodology, there are significant changes in patterns from past reports.
With the new methodology, the percentage of energy generated directly by fossil fuels is higher than many of us remember from past reports. Now, the portion of fossil fuel consumption that comes directly from fossil fuel generation has been reduced from 94% in 1980 to 87% in 2024. Using the old methodology, the fossil fuel percentage in 2024 would have been 81%.
Figure 5 shows the history of non-fossil fuel types of energy, as percentages of total world energy supply. It should be noted that even these types of energy require some use of fossil fuels. Such fuels are used in the initial construction of the devices, for their maintenance, for energy storage, and for transportation (or transmission) to where the energy product is used.
Figure 5 shows that the share of energy produced by “Nuclear” hit a peak of 7.6% in 2001, and it has been declining ever since. “Hydroelectric” has grown a bit over the years relative to world energy supply.
“Geo, Biomass, Other” as a share of world energy supply has been relatively flat in recent years. It includes biomass in the form of ethanol and biodiesel, which are non-electricity forms of renewable energy. It also includes electricity from geothermal generation, and from burning wood chips and sawdust.
The only real “winner” in recent years has been “Wind + Solar.” As of 2024, this category amounts to 2.9% of world energy supply. It certainly cannot, by itself, power an economy like the one we have today. Section 7 of this post explains a bit more about this issue.
[6] The sad state of nuclear generation deserves a discussion of its own.
There seem to be many factors underlying the substantial decline in nuclear electricity, as a share of total energy supply, between 2001 and 2013:
- There were three major accidents at nuclear power plants, leading to worries about the safety of nuclear generation (Three Mile Island, 1979; Chernobyl, 1986; and Fukushima, 2011).
- The pricing scheme for wind and solar generally gives “priority” to wind and solar. This leads to negative wholesale prices for electricity at some times, and very low prices at other times, for nuclear power plants. This pricing scheme tends to make nuclear power plants unprofitable. I expect that this lack of profitability has been a major issue in the recent decline of nuclear generation.
- There doesn’t seem to be enough uranium produced to support much more nuclear generation than is used today. The US has been using down-cycled nuclear bomb material, but that is now becoming exhausted. See my earlier post.
- Uranium prices never bounce very high for very long. If prices were a lot higher over the long term, more uranium mines might be opened, and more uranium extracted.
- Opening a new mine often involves lag times of 10 to 15 years, making any ramping of uranium production a slow process.
There is also the issue of financing any shift to nuclear electricity. Upfront costs are huge, but nuclear power plants (with proper fossil-fuel-based maintenance) can operate for 60 to 80 years. As limits on fossil fuels are reached, building all these plants, using large amounts of fossil fuels, seems likely to reduce fossil fuels energy available for other uses. This makes financing a major challenge.
[7] The recent annual rising trend of 0.2% in per capita consumption of energy looks vulnerable to disruption by any economic problem that arises.
A major reason why energy consumption keeps rising is because, as population rises, there is a need for more food, housing, and transportation for this larger population. The consumption of energy products allows people to meet these needs. In fact, every aspect of GDP depends upon energy consumption.
Figure 7 indicates that world energy supply per capita rose between 1965 and 1979. It remained relatively flat between 1979 and 2002 and then rose quite rapidly until 2008. Since then, its growth rate has again been essentially flat. Fitted trend lines show what these growth trends have been:
I have written recently about the huge US government debt increase since 2008 that has tended to prop up both the US and world economies. With all this “support” since 2008, the fact that world per capita energy consumption growth has only risen by 0.2% per year is frightening. With the high level of debt, there is a danger that there will be another major recession that could bring huge financial difficulties. At some point, higher debt levels become unsupportable. Thus, what is really an energy crisis can “morph” into a financial crisis.
The types of events that have brought energy consumption down in the past are quite varied, as shown on Figure 9. Note that the lows keep getting lower. There is a danger that another recession-type event could come along and push the world economy toward a long-term downtrend in energy supply per capita.
[8] China plays a huge role in the world’s energy consumption. As resource limits are hit, China has the potential to pull the world economy down with it.
China energy consumption (Figure 10) follows a very different pattern from world energy consumption (Figure 6).
There are several important things to notice about China’s energy pattern:
(a) China’s energy consumption is heavily dominated by coal.
(b) There was a sharp expansion in China’s energy consumption, starting about 2002. This is related to China joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001. On Figure 8, we noted 2.0% annual world per capita energy consumption growth between 2002 and 2008, which was far greater than in either the period before 2002 (at 0.2%), or the period after 2008 (at 0.2%). This shifting pattern was largely driven by China’s spurt in energy consumption after joining the WTO.
(c) China’s energy consumption has been growing more rapidly than that of the rest of the world. This is closely related to China’s becoming the leading manufacturer for the world economy, at the same time most of the wealthier countries have been moving manufacturing to lower-cost areas (ostensibly to reduce CO2 emissions).
(d) China’s energy consumption now plays an outsize role in the future of the world economy. In 2024, China consumed 27% of the world’s energy supply. This is more energy than that consumed by the US (16%) and the EU (9%) combined.
(e) With this energy dominance, any stumble in the world’s supply of fossil fuels and other mineral resources will affect China.
One area where China is running into limits is with respect to oil supply. China imports most of its oil. Comparing 2024 to 2023, China’s total oil consumption decreased by 1.4%. Its diesel consumption decreased even more, by 2.8%.
As the leading manufacturer of the world, China has been consuming huge amounts of minerals such as copper. This Copper Council report seems to indicate that China uses about 56% of the world’s copper supply. If there is a shortage of copper, China will be affected.
We can look at energy consumption growth on a per capita basis. Not surprisingly, China’s rapid growth has pulled down per capita energy consumption growth elsewhere.
The pattern shown in Figure 11 is disturbing. Outside of China, energy consumption per capita has been falling for a long time. The rest of the world, to a significant extent, has lost its ability to manufacture the goods needed for its own people. China’s energy consumption per capita is now reported to be on a par with Europe’s, but China, too, faces issues as it encounters resource limits of many kinds.
No wonder there is conflict among nations! Every country would like limited resources. If one country has more, other countries will get less.
[9] Inflation-adjusted oil prices have bounced around, rather than following a consistent upward pattern. This limits their long-term impact on production.
Commodity prices of all kinds seem to be influenced by many temporary situations, including debt availability and concerns about war. Higher prices do induce short-term changes that can influence supply of some energy products. For example, when oil prices are high, more production of diesel can economically be achieved by “cracking” long molecules of very heavy oil to produce shorter diesel-length molecules. When oil (and diesel) prices are low, this conversion process starts to be money-losing.
Thus, as we saw in Figure 1, diesel production increased between 1994 and 2008, in line with rising oil prices (Figure 12). Conversely, diesel barely held steady between 2008 and 2014. After 2014, when oil prices were clearly lower, diesel production fell significantly.
A major problem in creating greater mineral supplies for the long term is that new mines of all types take many years to develop. So does opening a completely new oil field. Prices tend not to stay high enough, for long enough, to encourage opening new mines and new oil fields. We see this pattern repeatedly, in diverse areas, including oil, copper, platinum and uranium, holding down the supply of these mineral resources.
Over the long term, affordability seems to play a larger role than rising demand in the prices of commodities, holding prices down. As a result, it is low prices that seem to lead to the falling production of commodities.
[10] Conclusion
This analysis confirms what I have shown earlier: The world economy is hitting energy limits in many ways.
I have written about the world’s diesel and jet fuel shortage in the past. Updated data from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy confirms that the world’s diesel supplies are not rising sufficiently to keep pace with world population growth. I believe that the shortage of diesel, and perhaps of oil in general, underlies the push toward more tariffs. One effect of tariffs may be to reduce the amount of long-distance shipping.
The 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy includes data for a few minerals that will likely be used if there is a transition away from fossil fuels. Of the minerals shown in the report, copper and the platinum group seem to be the most limited in supply. The relatively flat production at a time when demand should be expected to be rising gives us a clue that limits are being reached. Unless someone can figure out a way to get prices to stay at a significantly higher level, low supply of these minerals is likely to remain a long-term problem.
The overall energy supply does seem to still be rising slowly, but progress in transitioning to non-fossil fuels is painfully slow. We hear much talk about ramping up nuclear electricity production, but my analysis suggests that such a transition will be difficult, at best.
There is a great deal more analysis that can be done with the new data. I expect to be looking at this data in more detail in future posts.
The fragile electric grid , Kurt Cobb ,
http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2025/07/transformer-bottleneck-can-us-maintain.html#more
A major issue: The waiting time for new transformers is now 127 weeks. For specialized transformers, can be more than that. Having a fire that damages transformers is now a big problem. So would be a big electrical pulse, whether naturally caused or caused by a nuclear blast set off at a great height, to try too bring down the grid.
I don’t know how much can be done to harden the grid, if that were a top priority. Just trying to keep up with demand seems to be a problem today. US electricity supply has been flat for years. It cannot easily be increased to meet needs for things like AI and increased demand for more electric automobiles.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/european-disease-germany-enters-debt-spiral
Without resources how is Europe going to hold it together? In a slowing economic environment it seems discretionary items will not be very desirable. Europe has little else to sell.
I’m still not convinced that the Trump admin doesn’t have some plans to wipe out the debt. I just don’t know how they would do it. Midterms are coming so might have to g do it before then.
>> some plans to wipe out the debt
I think that’s one reason why European leaders keep pushing for war – they don’t expect to be personally harmed and need an excuse for a clean slate financial reset and the ongoing fall in living standards.
EU pays tribute to USA . To buy gas at 5 times the price .
https://x.com/grok/status/1949606851475296689
https://x.com/M_Simonyan/status/1949535903849828571
I know!!! Why would they do that? Are they just thinking they will agree for the short term and then go back on their word?
Their plan is to simply outlast Trump. Just make some promises, keep him happy, while doing the minimum or even the opposite.
Welcome to the DA boys. And the HTOE. The Hand is starving-out Gaza in the greatest realtime ritual sacrifice of all-time and ain’t nobody gonna do jack shit about it. That’s POWER. Telling the EU to pay 5X in order to burden-share the fracking industry that keeps civilization afloat, is child’s play.
Their plan is to win the war and seize Russia and Ukraine resources. Their other plan is planned degrowth through all kinds of regulations and off-shoring while importing immigrants to keep the pension system afloat.
They’re betting of financializing their profits, akin to becoming rentiers on a global scale.
Nothing is working for them though. Nowdays, it shouldn’t be surprising that things are failling, and the major world players are all betting.
Also, the debt won’t ever be wiped out. It isn’t supposed to, and it’s not possible to do it.
If someone rogue leader disagrees and is economic illiterate enough to simply write it off, he’ll soon find out why it exists in the first place: hyperinflation will destroy everything.
A.I. and record number of college graduates.
In the meantime, infrastructure all around the U.S. is falling apart.
Concrete takes on a distinct brown tinge when
the iron that is embedded in it rusts so much that the rust
changes the color of the concrete.
The best and brightest don’t have an answer for that
other than in the future, bridges won’t be needed
because of some development in I.T.
in the future, bridges won’t be needed
because of some development in I.T.
You put a smile on my face.
Well I suppose once we have flying cars, roads will be passe. Semis can be replaced with blimps? Just don’t get caught up in a windstorm.
If there is going to be a Type I Civ, it would have transcended biology.
Two legged ape emotions do not really count for anything.
It is time to stop treating two legged apes with dignity. There are simply too many, and too few with any value, to treat all of them with dignity. They will be commoditified.
Right up there with shrink-flation I am noticing more and more business that are only open three days a week or two days a week or even one day a week!
Many restaurants have never come back from “delivery only” mode. Many businesses seem to be open, but have very few customers. It is hard to see how they will stay open for long.
“Stop aspiring and start writing. If you’re writing, you’re a writer. Write like you’re a goddamn death row inmate and the governor is out of the country and there’s no chance for a pardon.
Write like you’re clinging to the edge of a cliff, white knuckles, on your last breath, and you’ve got just one last thing to say, like you’re a bird flying over us and you can see everything, and please, for God’s sake, tell us something that will save us from ourselves.
Take a deep breath and tell us your deepest, darkest secret, so we can wipe our brow and know that we’re not alone. Write like you have a message from the king.
Or don’t.
Who knows, maybe you’re one of the lucky ones who doesn’t have to.”
-Alan Watts
There seems to be some confusion about productivity.
Those on the left claim that worker productivity is at a all-time high
https://www.newsweek.com/us-productivity-surges-record-high-1878679
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/19/heres-how-labor-dynamism-affects-wage-growth-in-america.html?msockid=07c093a0c3dd6f860d2e8592c2a36ec9
https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/
while those who are fiscally conservative…or have access to information we don’t claim there is a slow-down in productivity.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2021/article/the-us-productivity-slowdown-the-economy-wide-and-industry-level-analysis.htm
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-productivity-slump-a-summary-of-the-evidence/
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w24554/w24554.pdf
So, who’s telling the truth?
Ihave had to interact with my old university in the last 4 months and I tend to lean with the right wing. the inefficiency and rotten, entitled attitude of the administrative staff would get them fired instantly here. they could not even be able to survive in other parts of the world.
” rotten, entitled attitude of the administrative staff would get them fired instantly ”
by here, you mean in the private sector.
drb753,
A lot of these people are gentry or secular equivalents of the clergy. They have very specialized knowledge that is valuable only to other wealthy people.
As for “once they get out in the real world” belief prevalent in the 2000s amongst conservative circles, events since 2008 has shown that liberal students did not shed their beliefs once they left college. The real world seems to have changed to assimilate into liberal world view. Workplaces seem to have bent over backwards to accommodate liberal world views. Many for-profit companies began to behave like non-profits, with labels ranging from esg to “social impact company” to describe their behavior.
Meanwhile, non-profits became more like private sector firms and the blame was placed on financial services, as if financial services forced colleges and hospitals to charge high prices.
No, by “here” I mean in Russia. There are a lot of people I dislike, but if I see their car stuck in the snow in winter of course I will stop and pull them out. They will do the same, since I also have enemies. It is the only way.
>> I also have enemies
Sorry, what? Aren’t you new in Russia – how did you already make “enemies”?
well, land used for agriculture can not be (easily) used for mushroom gathering or moose hunting (there is a fence, electrical or not). some people here are less than honest and you learn it the hard way. your cows escape and eat vegetable gardens, specially when people cut the barbed wire to get at apples, mushrooms, or just enjoy your watering pond’s “beach”. it takes time to carve your own space. I have fewer enemies now than 2 years ago. the culture is not welcoming for newcomers due to history. you have to be patient and show your stuff and wait. many americans, as I have stated in the past, do not make it in the regions.
Assholes damaging your fence and then causing cows to get out and hurt relations with your neighbors has got to be super frustrating.
I have many stories of this sort. I did not even list the two or three worst ones. But if you have a mission you keep going. I noticed over several days I received a gift every day. I am respected by most locally, and I am fairly resilient.
I read through some of the links I read and they were a chore. The writers, like the journalists and all “professionals” create try to make the slowdown of productivity and economic growth a mystery and I think this is done on purpose.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls):
“Well, not only has the productivity slowdown been one of the most consequential economic phenomena of the last two decades, but it also represents the most profound economic mystery during this time, and though many economists have grappled with the issue for over a decade and even created some innovative research approaches to address the question, we still cannot fully explain what brought on this situation.” It’s not a mystery. They reference Joseph A. Tainter book The Collapse of Complex Societies. They mention diminishing returns but the reduce to just an opinion.
Immediately after mentioning Tainter, they jump to this:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls):
“Chad Syverson reminds us that productivity slowdowns did occur between the waves of innovation during the late 1800s and early 1900s, as seminal technologies such as electricity and the internal combustion engine emerged.46 Ana Paula Cusolito and William F. Maloney add that “while this prior diffusion hardly implies that a second IT wave is imminent, it does show that productivity accelerations from general-purpose technologies do not have to be one-off events. Just because their resultant productivity growth sped up in the late 1990s and early 2000s does not mean it cannot speed up again.”
The article is heavily biased towards information technology. They delved into processor speeds as if that correlated to real wealth. They’re really counting on information technology to deliver another amazing “productivity speed-up”. They refuse to make the connection between resource consumption and productivity increases. They believe the Industrial Revolution happened just because of technology and not also because we started burning lots of fossil fuels. I wonder if this is the official narrative within the U.S. federal government or if this is just a popular opinion within it.
“If the fruits of economic growth are not going to workers, where are they going?
The growing wedge between productivity and typical workers’ pay is income going everywhere but the paychecks of the bottom 80% of workers. If it didn’t end up in paychecks of typical workers, where did all the income growth implied by the rising productivity line go? Two places, basically. It went into the salaries of highly paid corporate and professional employees.”
The Economic Policy Institute otherwise known as epi
is even worse than the The Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls). They refuse to say that the productivity gains since the 1970s
were in white collar work and that the technology that enabled those productivity gains mostly were made by white collar workers.The bottom 80 or 90 percent contributed close to no productivity growth since the 1970s so they rightly were not given a raise.
I think at some point, leaders realized machines were behind the productivity increases in white collar work done by college graduates. In response to that realization, I think they have devised numerous ways to destroy the college wage premium for the non-elite. High wages for elites have less to do with education and more to do with the fact they are being groomed to be future leaders.
From B, the Honest Sorcerer:
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/deep-sea-delusions-802
Deep Sea Delusions
Mining the ocean floor creates more problems than it solves
They can just apply what they learned from making space stations, satellites, and moon landings to the oceans. Mining the ocean with renewables must be much easier than using renewables in outer space. The sea cannot be a harsher environment than outer space.
A different sign of recession? Or a change in what people are buying?
https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/luxury-brands-sales-weak-bcc209ca
Luxury Brands Are Getting Hit by a Vibe Shift
Expensive labels are trying to figure out why sales have weakened so much outside a recession
Or maybe they feel the shift coming and don’t want to be a target. A lot of the super wealthy are trying to blend in. The next phase might very well be vilifying the wealthy for the failing system. Not correct but it just seems like the pattern
I don’t see a decrease or increase in displays of wealth by the wealthy. I see more more Telsa cars on the road than ever.
A slow down in luxury spending would also mean a slow down in poor inner city people buying luxury products (at great cost) to signal to other poor inner city people that they have status.
A slowdown in luxury spending would force many women who make “good salaries” but don’t have children to cut back on their spending and I don’t see any evidence of single women with good jobs consuming less.
I think luxury spending is a weak indicator of the health of an economy. Everything is so fragmented, it is hard to see signs and interpret them correctly.
For example, they will claim college enrollment is down but that is only at smaller school. It is smaller schools that have trouble weathering a cutback in revenue. A cutback in enrollment doesn’t even a decline in interest about college, it just may mean “financial aid” is being cut back or maybe there are fewer middle class people who fueled the bulk of the growth of college attendance in the past.
The Mangione effect?
Nah the noveau riche need at least three inputs to rouse their selfishness from oblivion. Populist chic is more like it, now that the liberal media making liberal use of the word oligarchy (and ultimately so as to mask the Hand which is the true and only oligarchy). Now that the mainstream neoliberals are becoming populist conspiracy theorists, the Hand’s triangulation of national socialism is almost complete.
There is less reporting on hard economic data since 2008.
The jobs numbers cannot be trusted.
Every company is Eron. Earnings figures are suspect.
Companies who stop issuing dividends to stockholder
are most likely hiding financial problems.
What is better positioned, , a company whose stock price doubles
every five years or a company that pays dividends consistently
for five years?
Speculative currency is losing value due to lack of buyers.
I predict a new sport with two teams of robots smashing each other. With various weight classes and weapons classes.
You mean like battlebots?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mcd-E-gcGSg
There is a savage tendency behind all this. Like UFC and Mortal Combat. Trump loves attending boxing and UFC fights- and yet underneath his BS is a coward with military deferment due to “heel spurs.”
I am think more of bipedal form robots. Modern day coliseum.
I think we will see the new sport of robot warfare. Two groups of say 20 robots of a weight class with weapons of particular class. Some weapon classes 1) sticks and stones 2) sticks with metal points and knives and swords 3) cross bows and mace 4) guns and body amour 5) grenades and mortars and trenches 6) 50 caliber fully automatic machine guns and motorcycles 7) tanks and heavy artillery and helicopters
Weight classes 1) 5kg 2) 25kg 3) 100kg 4) 500kg 5) 2000kg
Also mix class robots.
Not tele-operated rather fully autonomous AI. It would show that AI can in fact “DO” something.
Have no idea other than you are reflecting on biology which is a life force which seeks to reproduce.
My bet is on biology, robots are as of yet a reflection of man’s appreciation of intelligence. There is something behind all, the universe and ultimately biology.
I am starting to suspect many of mankind’s problems are narratives which are an effort by man to direct the forces of life to desired outcomes. They seem to fail with regularity and horrible results for large swaths of the human race.
Dennis L.
What Ed is talking about has nothing to do with biology. It is mechanical engineering.
The obsession on Musk, then on space mining, and now biology. Biology will go the way of phrenology, to the dustbin of history.
I Live 500 Feet From A Bitcoin Mine. My Life Is Hell.
https://youtu.be/m7_WDzPyoqU?si=aqasyjTJFFQGZpd2
A single Bitcoin transaction consumes the same amount of power the average American house does in a week. This is an incredibly inefficient way of transacting goods and services in an economy.
Crypto is a perfect in showing the divorce between finance capital and the actual means of production. It has become more profitable to invest in fictious production than real production.
I did the math a while ago and the transaction cost was so big I wasn’t sure whether I made a mistake or misunderstood how the system works.
Claude redid the calc (short answer = $92/transaction):
Current Bitcoin Block Reward and Transaction Cost:
The current Bitcoin block reward is 3.125 BTC per block Bitcoin Block Reward per Block Chart | Newhedge +2, which occurred after the halving event in April 2024. At current Bitcoin prices, this block reward is valued at approximately $373,000 Solo Bitcoin miner scores $373,000 block reward.
For transactions per block, Bitcoin blocks can contain varying numbers of transactions depending on their size and complexity. A recent solo-mined block (block 907283) contained 4,038 transactions Solo Bitcoin miner scores $373,000 block reward, which gives us a good reference point for current activity levels.
Transaction Cost Calculation:
Using the data from that recent block:
Block reward: 3.125 BTC
Transactions per block: ~4,038 (using the recent example)
Transaction cost = 3.125 BTC ÷ 4,038 transactions = ~0.00077 BTC per transaction
At current Bitcoin prices (~$119,000), this equals approximately $92 per transaction in terms of the block reward cost.
1 Bitcoin transaction consumes 100,000 Visa transaction worth of electricity according to Microsoft Copilot.
Bitcoin is a financial Rube Goldberg machine.
Stablecoins: the next big financial crisis waiting to happen
Loosening the regulations governing digital currencies involves Wild West trade-offs .
https://archive.md/i4fhr#selection-2243.4-2247.88
Crypto lenders dial up risk with ‘microfinance on steroids’
Digital asset price boom inspires new ventures making precarious loans despite painful wipeout three years ago .
https://archive.md/0puaO#selection-1585.0-1589.110
The WSJ has an article about a semi-conductor chip that might have a chance of solving the problem of AI using too much energy. Of course, the problem would be that it could wipe out NVIDIA and other current manufacturers, if it really works as hoped.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-new-chips-designed-to-solve-ais-energy-problem-1ba9cac1
The New Chips Designed to Solve AI’s Energy Problem
Tech giants and startups alike are trying new approaches to what has been a vexing problem
The arguments against AI are sound and valid. However, it is not going away, and going forward will be used as an augmentative tool at very least.
We can only imagine what is possible today once chips are built that can effortlessly run these algorithms.
We are currently at 2 or 3 nanometre fabrication. There is a path to 0.2 nm in 10 years. That, and 3D lithography will continue giving AI 100x or 1000x the power it had the previous year for years to come.
Anastasia in Tech… has worked in fabrication. She knows her stuff:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXgZ3X8z7eE
Even if AI does not become “sentient”, it is already useful for experts in many fields. I don’t particularly love this technology, because every .. single .. SciFi film and game that explores AI… has a horrific outcome. If we could know that it will drive us to stars… thats one thing, but being stuck on this rock, with an entity that wants to consume all the energy…. is another.
Sorry to be a stickler, but we are not really at 2 or 3 nm. Recent nodes have something like a transistor density (gate pitch) of 44nm on an axis. At some point it became a marketing term and values were inflated.
As for inference, Cerebras is the best that I’m aware of, by a wide margin. They have whole-wafer inference chips that can deal with some tiles not working.
Yes, and once we get to 0.2 nm (which kind of source can lase at that wavelength?) on axis it will still be close to 40 nm. I do not know what these breakthroughs are. Neural networks manipulate giant multi-dimensional matrices (tensors), so the chips need to be as parallelized as possible. that’s it. and the chinese are not working on the same, and is this not just a semi-standard engineering problem? at any rate I think these people will have to learn to do with what they have. there is going to be no quantum leap in computation due to energy supply and transistor size constraints.
The video discusses, among other things, “2.5D” where the idea is to stack a second set of transistors over the first, but that only buys one a doubling in density. I think any real future scaling will come from different materials that are faster. I agree that size is basically played out. Gallium arsenide, for example, has switching frequency in the Thz range. I sometimes wonder whether intel agencies already have this stuff and just keep the hoi polloi on stupid tech stacks on purpose.
Aside, it’s a good youtube channel for anyone interested in lithography tech coverage for laymen.
Yes but it seems like AI is the new arms race….you have to invest greatly into it. If you fall behind you will be destroyed. I think AI will get its energy it is the average person who will get less. I think that is the way forward for the next four years…Low debt and low energy consumption will be the new rich….Most people have set themselves up with an expensive to maintain lifestyle .
I doubt it. you have to have good military system integration (sensors, net centricity, local and centralized AI, and good weapons). AI does not work if there is sufficient ASW. To some extent it is a chain as strong as its weakest link. AI still makes no food or metals. In the West it will destroy a lot of jobs, but not here.
0.2nm is 2 angstroms smaller than a hydrogen atom. How does anyone make a physical device smaller than a hydrogen atom? I think we call this specsmanship aka bullshit.
as explained above, that is the size of one silicon atom. but they can not really do single atom transistors because these integrated chips have millions of them, and they all need to work together. One bad transistor and the whole chip goes to the dump. so transistors will always be more than 100 atoms thick. silicon deposition on the sapphire substrate is a statistical process, if you aim for 100 atoms on average 1/3 of your transistors will be below 90 or above 110.
The cost of building new foundries for smaller and smaller linewidths is an exponential curve with increasing cost for smaller linewidths. We have pretty much met our limit already.
There are optical limits with light and I think they are much larger than 2nm.
I figured there were a few asterisks behind that. I used to love this stuff, and then nothing really changed for a couple decades, application wise.
Now that AI is in the works…. its once again very important. I did enjoy Anastasia’s video. It brought me up to speed… even if it leans a little to hyperbole and perhaps wishful thinking.
However few nm’s they have, how can mocrichip manufacturing/use continue without the fossil-fuel-based infrastructure?
Does AI just consume energy, not making it?
I wonder what it would take to provide the world with 5 and 12 volt computer systems for all aspects of living. That would be enough to manage work, play games and communicate through local networks.
If we could just have production lines of these, and lay off the AI level tech, that would satisfy nearly all computer needs for people to operate society.
What would that take?
I supposed much of what is required is the acquisition the purification of exotic materials… which requires endless industry.
I don’t get that neither. I thought, jobs as teachers, librarians, hairdressers and judges were created, when surplus energy had started to produce food and people had to be employed elsewhere.
In the moment surplus energy and food gets scarce, we shall invest energy into AI to govern us? Or to fight unnecessary wars?
So potential and could, but nothing concrete apart from more money and so energy to be wasted, trying to save a fraction of the money(energy) already being wasted.
Do they give any figures(apart from the money)?
It looks like digital tulips.
Fitz, it just means producing a medical diagnosis at 1/10 of the cost. It means eliminating legal clerks, doctors, programmers, their salaries and benefits. It is looting but the money is there. No one denies that AI solutions are cheaper than human solutions, and a few oligarchs are going to benefit. They are going after their own political base of course.
Yes there is a big up-front cost but the real aspiration for those in control is to become godlike in intelligence, longevity, and capability. When that’s the opportunity, they will direct all the resources they can muster into this. Whether such an outcome is realistic or not and on what timeframe is another matter.
This is my problem with the whole thing. It’s not real and it will never fulfil the claims that we’re told. Everyone is reading the sales brochure and believing without question, because they front loaded the useful stuff.
I don’t believe for a second that all the people/groups that control the real investment don’t fully understand the above, but I do know a bit about their plans and actions, which are gathering pace each and every day while we all stare at the latest bs.
Take out the fluff and your left with a military based tech for domination of all spheres(they’re presently rushing through biometric ID, but that’s just a coincidence, honest).
Their goals, by their actions, seem clear and yes they believe it possible, within 5 years and this year is a big year in their plans.
My daughter’s fiance’ lost his job to AI early in the year. So definitions of reality may vary.
What is his line of work?
I sort of hope AI doesn’t further increase in capability. I would be fine with its development if it were used to upgrade human intellect and biology for everyone, but I think the current arrangement will lead to it being monopolized selfishly.
Graphic designer. She is a legal clerk, so I expect her also to lose her job at some point. Effectively neither of them has a degree.
I maybe should have been clearer. As I’ve already said, lots of jobs will be lost, much like they were for the working class with the introduction of machines and this is the point, it’s no different to that. It’s just harder for those that thought they were indispensable because of a piece of paper, to grasp how they are now no more important to the system than the working class.
It’s not real in the intelligence sense(don’t tell the people with paper, that’d be too much for them to take) and it never will be(present architecture), as the Harvard & MIT study once again showed. It’s a tool of control and wiping out the scribe class is essential to its purpose, as those pieces of now worthless paper do relate to a certain amount of knowledge of the system and that’s unacceptable for the planned future. I have little sympathy, as they cheered the destruction of the working class and refused to look when I tried to show them that they were the next working class(the same idiots that are always too willing to believe the next nova pestis).
A decent article on the issue(I do agree with author that there’s more possibilities than my comments would suggest).
https://www.thealgorithmicbridge.com/p/harvard-and-mit-study-ai-models-are
To reiterate, AI does not and with current architecture, can not be intelligent. Like any other machine, it can do certain tasks and so take jobs. Everything else is fluff for those that can’t face the fact it’s their turn now.
Machines replaced people, but people found employment making machines, and producing more people.
when machines began to be introduced, the world had about 1 bn people—now there’s 8bn—most of whom have jobs that didnt exist 200 years ago.
people consume ‘stuff’ which requires bigger machines and more of them.—which creates more jobs—and so on. Machines took away some jobs but created 000s of new ones….—which consume more ‘stuff’.—that how our current economic system originated.
With AI its different…
AI removes jobs, but doesnt consume ‘stuff’ and thus create new kinds of employment, at least not on a scale that will sustain our current economic system.
That’s about where we are. We all know this, but everyone is fooling themselves that it’s going to be some utopian dream, when it’s so obviously a system of control.
WTF is wrong with people Norman?
One more thing, could we drop the I from AI, as it’s an affront to words, their meaning and of course intelligence(maybe change it to Incarceration or similar).
Agree about the jobs and I was trying to warn the scribe class almost a decade ago, that their jobs would be lost to an algorithm(you can imagine the reaction I received).
As to the political base, that doesn’t matter, as it’s real purpose is our road to Gaza(the testing ground).
The Agenda looks right on time and the people have been convinced that the latest Safe & Effective Saviour is something it clearly is not.
Pike would be proud, as we’re blindly lead to our destination 😁
TCS layoffs shake Indian IT: Mass exits show even ‘safe’ jobs aren’t untouchable
The job cuts will affect around 2% of TCS’s global workforce of 613,069, largely targeting mid- and senior-level employees—especially those with 10 or more years of experience. 12631 are fired in one go .
https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/story/tcs-layoffs-shake-indian-it-mass-exits-show-even-safe-jobs-arent-untouchable-486538-2025-07-28
“Mass exits show even ‘safe’ jobs aren’t untouchable”
“largely targeting mid- and senior-level employees”
That sounds familiar.
https://thejobchicksinsideredge.substack.com/p/what-microsofts-memo-didnt-say-and?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
It’s getting brutal now and it’s going to get much worse within 3 months.
TCS attribute the job cuts to vague things like “shifting client demands” and pressure from AI.
I assume Microsoft gave very similar reasons. I cannot confirm this because the link you included has an article that can only be read after paying for a subscription.
It can’t be that demand from large organizations around the world is falling clients have less money, because the u.s. government is not printing money enough money to keep the global economy awash in liquidity, it can’t be because the things that generate revenue for i.t. don’t require lots of code monkeys anymore and can be done by commissioned sales people or automation. It can’t be because of a hidden recession.
It can’t be because the damage the lockdowns did cannot be undone.
Sorry about that. It was free when I read it.
Basically, massive layoffs through all departments(layoffs been building up for months), even the most profitable people just told, with no notice, to do one. Those left have been told that they will be evaluated on the requirements of the new system, but no one will say anything about the new system, so all staff feel like the noose is around their neck and they’re just waiting for the flick of a heavily load coin, to tell them that which they already know.
September/October supposed to be much worse.
That plus loads of new hires, from places not in the US(or other white countries, so don’t tell Trump). The greater bulk of them, for the pretend intelligence department, because it’s not.
The shocking stories of staff being treated as if they were no better than working class people, were almost sad.
Still, people that were willing to help build their own prison, really shouldn’t be surprise at the outcome.
Diesel Is Soaring on Sanctions and Wrong Type of Oil, Total Says.
https://archive.vn/N2KXM#selection-1145.0-1145.64
Trying to replace Russian oil with natural gas liquids or light shale oil doesn’t help produce more diesel. This is a quick explanation of why Trump has suddenly authorized Chevron to extract crude oil from Venezuela despite the sanctions.
And it gets worse: when the peak oil consumption season ends and autumn begins, oil prices are likely to fall again, but diesel production will remain at a minimum if they continue sanctioning Russian oil. Thus, even shale oil will eventually fall if oil prices don’t rise. And if they do rise, in an attempt to exploit unproductive wells, inflation will strike again (more than it already does).
Good, beautiful, and cheap oil ended long ago, and now we will begin to pay the consequences—or rather, we are already paying them—in the form of a loss of purchasing power. It’s a slow movement in its initial phase, but we are all already noticing it…
Quark .
The Bush bubble was war spending, armaments, the Obama bubble was shale oil, The Biden bubble was EV and alt energy, the Trump bubble is AI as he plans to boost artificial intelligence and build data centers across the U.S. I remember his inauguration, in a line together was Zuckerberg, Musk, Bezos and another big techy CEO. All the data pigs at the trough for the next round of giveaways. You couldn’t make this stuff up. .
Zuck and Bezos tried to stop the Trump presidency… I wouldn’t help them, if I were him. In the 2020 election, Zuck financed all those unmonitored drop boxes.
There always needs to be a way to ramp up debt and/or the stock market. Until limits start to be reached, the two seem to be closely related. The more government and other debt, the higher the stock market.
But after a point, the extra debt seems to lead to inflation, rather than more oil pumped out, higher stock market valuations, and real growth. Citizens become very unhappy. There needs to be more inexpensive energy supply, but it just isn’t happening, especially for diesel.
I don’t doubt your comment but do you have a link on the data centers that are bing built or planned to be built?
Sam , all tech companies have plans . however they will remain plans only as reality or let us say TSHTF . Cancelled even before starting .
https://gizmodo.com/amazon-follows-microsoft-in-retreat-from-ambitious-ai-data-center-plans-2000592217
https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/65bn-of-data-centre-projects-in-ireland-now-stranded-due-to-moratorium-and-power-issues-says-industry-expert/a66105245.html
“or rather, we are already paying them—in the form of a loss of purchasing power.” Yes nominal price of items(housing) is not increasing as much as purchasing power is declining. Currency is for short term transactions only, problem is finding a substitute for value.
My guess, children. Amish and orthodox Jews seem to have a great deal in common here. Central banks seem to be going into gold, children can be creative and have the possibility of growth, gold only represents what has historically been. When “stuff” becomes of much shorter depreciation schedules, then gold become worthless I should think. All the useable stuff has been used, nothing left to trade.
Dennis L.
Poland is in shock: Priest brutally murdered a man with an axe and set him on fire in the middle of the street
https://spravy.pravda.sk/svet/clanok/760862-polsky-duchovny-je-obvineny-z-brutalnej-vrazdy-informuju-media/?utm_source=pravda&utm_medium=hp-box&utm_campaign=shp_9clanok_box
There have been lots of weird murders in Europe and America in recent years. There is this trend of people driving cars into crowds and murdering people. What is causing it?
Western values? But for a long time the West paid for these “accidents” to happen in places like Tehran. Every intersection now has the sidewalk blocked by steel posts to prevent cars from driving into the sidewalk. the steel posts also extend along the sidewalk.
China is suffering a car-into-crowds epidemic too. Apparently, that is the go-to “Fudge this, Im going out in blaze” manoeuvre in China. Bollards are placed on the streets to prevent this where possible.
We are all over extended. Every country has sold out their population, and most who did as they were told are now miserable for it, because absolutely no one thinks anything is going to get any better for them or their family.
And so it goes.
This fellow seems to have captured the disappointment. His voice work is bang on….
** Why We’re All Experiencing A Midlife Crisis **
With a blend of philosophy, psychology, and sharp social commentary, we ask: Is it burnout… or are we just alive in a dying system? From climate dread to col…
youtube.com
This is my relative, I told him about ourfiniteworld regarding energy and also about https://econimica.blogspot.com/ regarding the ageing of the societies some time ago. He does some research on the crumbling of the societies now:
https://www.postoj.sk/177715/zijeme-v-kmenoch-ktore-nic-nespaja-z-rozkladu-profituju-zaujmove-skupiny-zo-sudrznosti-bohatneme-vsetci
US oil rig count down 7 to 415, the lowest level since September 2021 and ~25 rigs below maintenance level = ~260,000Bbl/d of annualized production declines. The energy market is not ready for the twilight of US shale.
https://x.com/ericnuttall/status/1948795628676632820/photo/1
US oil production needs ~440 active rigs to stay flat, with each rig = ~10,300Bbl/d of annual production. $60WTI implies a rig count of 320 (source: Bernstein) = 1.2MM Bbl/d of annualized losses from current levels over a year.
https://x.com/ericnuttall/status/1942597335642693979/photo/1
With the declining availability of sweet spots, it would seem as if the US would need as at least as many drilling rigs as in the past, to stay flat.
The Centre for Retail Research predicts there will be 7,000 retail site closures this year, and it has estimated there were 170,000 retail jobs lost in 2024. River Island is just one of the latest high-profile examples, a large retailer in trouble losing 33 shops from Britain’s high streets.
https://www.landlordzone.co.uk/news/another-surge-in-shop-closures-comes-due-to-mounting-pressures-on-retail
Thank you for your series of postings, raviuppal4.
From the above link on retail shops closures;
The current system is seen by some as unfairly favouring online retailers and potentially hindering the competitiveness of traditional bricks-and-mortar stores, though many retailers are developing a hybrid in-store / online system.
Business rates are a major operating expense for all bricks and mortar retailers, adding to their overhead costs that can lead to them having to charge higher prices against the online competition which often also offers the convenience of home deliveries.
That suns it up nicely. To be honest, I don’t “enjoy” store shopping any longer and it is a chore not only searching for the product, but dealing with employees that are overburdened or just not caring because of lack of pay and crummy hours. Also, where I live in South Florida, car driving is rather hazardous activity, road rage and aggressive driving is the norm. Coupled with bill boards advertisements of “Accident Attorneys” and their record generous settlements “won” plastered everywhere. Disgusting.
Lots of vacant storefronts seen in downtown and high turnover. We indeed are in the midst of upheaval
Sometimes it is difficult to discern which of the many specialty shops near where I live might carry a particular product I would like to purchase. And then there is the question of precisely which version of a product I would want. If I order from Amazon, or even Home Depot, I will get ratings regarding which products other consumers thought were best.
agree
Just looking for an odd small item right now, if i trawled around half a dozen shops i might have found it—but one click search—there it is—delivered tomorrow—and our high street stores die.
i cant think of an answer either
Shopping in person has become more unpleasant for a variety of reasons. I’m not old enough to blame the internet. I don’t know what shopping was like before the internet. All I know is that going out has become more of a hassle because transportation has become more expensive and people generally are less happy but pretend otherwise because they want to show they have a leg up on their peers However, I am old enough to notice there are less goods and services available in almost every single type of brick-and-mortar store and this is hidden by more of the same. Kind of how the Marvel superhero movies hide the fact that there less different kind of movies available. Every time I have the displeasure of watching cable tv, there is some Marvel movie playing.
Capitalism has been working overtime to create the illusion of more but the reality is homogenization the same choices from the same 10 large conglomerates available everywhere.
The refining and chemicals segment saw earnings plummet by 39% from the previous year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/totalenergies-quarterly-earnings-drop-amid-105318695.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABm2_gsU-L3pbldBZlkIcDdLqJJovHr8i7wWovCc-j0JQNTVw-YEck4PMSaNn-KLkW166vS6Jpr8JxSdQ7UKmdTa0OTB7lsucFa9dQPITeqD4UwbVAgt3V8eb6NAHosWDUQHDwf8b5bJuOIzdeA4ZayFckyTrEvblzE-hnVfYQu9
It sounds like part of the problem is that consumers cannot afford oil and chemicals from oil, so they are driving margins lower for companies making chemicals.
In fact, it doesn’t sound like Total Energies is doing well, period. The article mentions wanting to sell renewable asset stakes and also to dispose of some mature oil and gas assets in Nigeria, Brazil and other regions. Costs rise, and consumers cannot afford the high prices. Higher interest rates badly affect renewable assets. Higher cost of production affect mature oil and gas assets.
Meanwhile in the US, the real estate crisis is just around the corner.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/07/24/inventory-of-new-single-family-homes-spikes-to-highest-since-2007-in-the-south-well-past-housing-bust-high-sales-prices-drop/
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/07/23/single-family-home-sales-drop-below-1995-supply-highest-since-2016-condo-sales-at-low-in-the-data-supply-at-housing-bust-level/
I had to look into US real estate a few months ago, and indeed the mother of all real estate crises is coming. 2007, my house lost 50% of its value. granted it was in a car industry white collar neighborhood. this is going to be worse.
It is not just single family homes that are too high, relative to what families can afford to pay.
There is a lot of commercial real estate that should be valued much lower than it currently is. Office space that is totally unneeded, and malls that are half empty. Even churches that are now under-used. Government office space that is unneeded.
ive seen church conversions—they don’t work as living accomodation other than temporary shelters.
The question now is when does the market flip now that the trend is set in .
Fracking rigs in the US have collapsed. See chart.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-update-july-2025/#comment-791163
It’s impossible to maintain production at such low levels, and they must also be drilling only the sweet water wells. Prices below $70 wreak havoc on oil companies’ bottom lines, as we’ll see in the quarterly earnings release. The obvious consequence is a reduction in rigs, drilling only the most productive areas to maximize total production.
Ladies and gentlemen, this is coming to an end… (although I highly doubt the Trump administration will accept it without doing something desperate).
About food becoming barter, Bill Gaede has written extensively about this topic for years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqrZeC2ee0k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_66HXZqzpLA
tl, dr, nobody who has food will sell it for any price.
And they won’t share it with their children who are just competition for food and survival.
So the last remaining food producers die without children and humans go extinct. El Fin. (He is from Argentine)
I certainly hope it isn’t as bad as that. People made it through the ice ages. Humans (and pre-humans) have pre-humans have flourished for many years. With the help of cook food, humans have grown brains that allowed people to outcompete other animals. It is pretty unusual for at least some humans not to look out for their own children.
Some humans will do better than others. It is their children who will survive.
It is not as bad as that. Right now in the villages potatoes are being dug and bartered for chicken, rabbits, eggs, pickles and whatnot. I myself have bartered land for sheep, cows for sheep. Milk and eggs are bartered year round. The taxman is training people to do the right thing. I am receiving 10kg of potatoes for changing a broken lock. One good laying hen goes also for about 10kg potatoes. ask if you want a more detailed, 2-D price listing.
In my college anthropology course this book was required reading
Colin Turnbull’s book, The Mountain People, published in 1972, describes the Ik people of East Africa, specifically their culture and behavior during a period of severe starvation and scarcity. Turnbull’s work portrays the Ik as a society that had become intensely individualistic, with a breakdown of social structures and a focus on individual survival above all else.
The book details how the Ik, facing extreme hardship, seemed to lose their capacity for cooperation, empathy, and social responsibility. Turnbull observed a lack of care for the elderly, the sick, and even children, with individuals prioritizing their own needs above all else. The book sparked controversy and debate about the nature of human behavior in the face of extreme adversity, and the potential for culture to be shaped by environmental pressures.
It was a heartbreaking account and some pictures are still with me to this very day.
We can hope that things don’t get this bad. I have heard of similar things, but I hope they don’t happen here. Maybe I am kidding myself.
I remember reading somewhere on the internet a long time ago that the ancient Egyptian civilization we all know about ended with a famine so severe Egyptian parents were driven to eat their young.
I haven’t found any sources to confirm that claim but we know from more recent famines, it may be possible but I don’t know how a society recovers from that.
It is mostly fiction. Turnbull, who later died of AIDS, asked each group he went to to supply a boy. The Iks refused so he wrote that to demonize tge tribr.
Was Turnbull trying to do an impression of Churchill?
Churchill was known to ask for young boys and he gassed whole villages when their elders laughed at him. He was also very keen on starving millions of Indians.
Just as well the man from Imperial College only had a pen as a weapon.
Turnbull just was into African boys, that’s all.
It’s a rare thing for me to say anything positive about Churchill, but he certainly never discriminated when it came to little boys and that’s about as positive as I’ll ever get about the inbred imbecile.
do you have any documented links to the churchill/boys thing fitz
or is it something you overheard down the pub?
just curious
I have never heard this before.
https://www.rutgers.edu/news/ugandas-ik-are-not-unbelievably-selfish-and-mean
https://www.sciencealert.com/anthropologists-return-to-a-selfish-tribe-in-uganda-and-find-they-re-actually-decent-folk
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. the Iks lived in a resource poor area with no cultural capital, so they probably behaved mean, but not as bad as a frustrated Turnbull had described.
There’s no evidence that he was into underage boys but he must have had a lot of sexual partners because he and his husband died from A.I.D.S.
Is it possible to contract so many diseases that it causes your immune system to collapse?
70% have taken the jab. People are deteriorating fast in our environment. Stents, joint problems, anxiety, dementia, cancer, diabetis. People can’t walk to the supermarket with 60.
Reduced population will have plenty of space to grow food. As it seems to get colder, I guess, they will raise animals to convert grass into nutrition.
who are they?
sounds to me as if there will be no ‘they’ left to do anything…
just askin?
For what it is worth, I recorded an interview with Jim Puplava of the Financial Sense News Hour. I don’t know when (if ever) it will be aired. It may take a couple of weeks or more. It relates to my latest post.
I don’t think that the answers I gave Jim Puplava were to his liking.
According to Wikipedia,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Puplava
Before I talked to him, I don’t think he understood that different types of oil yielded different amounts of diesel, and that tight oil from shale was deficient in the part of the oil supply that becomes diesel.
Par for the course in America, Gail. It is sad.
He seemed to be under the impression that US oil from shale deposits would provide a lot of diesel.
Certain degrees, like journalism, psychology, gender studies, automatically generate corruption. It would seem that a journalist should have a scientific and quantitative base to do his job properly.
Dumb and dumber the vast majority of the world’s population fall into the puvluva camp and that is why our only chance of us surviving the next 30 years is to have a wh opping conspiracy being performed on us by the elders. Perhaps energy figures and population figures have been fudged to ensure a sustainable world
0
In the event of a collapse, precious metals would become worthless. But most of anything would – only fuel, food, animals and land would retain value. Actually, their value would skyrocket, as the downward commodity pressure we have today, the same one which prevents oil price from ballooning wouldn’t be there anymore. As a side note, if you wanna predict when crisis is kicking in, just see if commodities are rising.
Now, back to precious metals. Yes, they’ll be useless, but, in a transitory periody between “business as usual” today and “complete collpase” in the future, it will have value in this period where people will seek assets for their value retention, as most won’t, and may be useful for trade.
What I said might appear confusing at first, but let me explain. In this ‘transition’ period, the price of every asset will skyrocket due to inflation – inflation will happen because literraly money will lose purchasing power because its “energy backing” is diminishing. At this time, people will become desperate to trade money for assets (as in every hyperinflation case), but they’ll not seek things which don’t have buyers, such as paiting, boats, cars or houses, crypto, stocks – these are today speculative currency, and people will seek instead hard safety. That’s where precious metals come in, but as I said, this will be a transitional period.
Sorry for the long post, I don’t express myself well and english is not my mother tongue.
The prices of precious metals go up and down, but my impression is that they do seem to track inflation.
It seems to me that silver is more likely that gold or platinum to be a medium of exchange in a declining economy. The value is not terribly high, relative to say, that of a loaf of bread. There is a reason why silver coins have been popular.
I expect over the long run, our problem will be the lack of availability of goods to buy. Our problem will increasingly be an “empty shelves” problem. We may have lots of gold or silver, but we cannot find seller who will sell us goods. I would expect that in an agricultural economy, those who contribute to growing agricultural products will disproportionately get the output of farms. Those with only silver coins (or worse yet, gold or platinum) may have a hard time buying food.
Actually contributing to the output of the changing economy seems to be the best insurance for getting the output of the much reduced economy. I keep thinking that people with only “assets” will have a hard time in a changing world. The world will have more and more “illiquid assets.”
Completely agree, Gail.
Goods will disappear, little by little, increasing their price at first and then with shrinkflation (we are here), this is a way companies try to salvage the viability of their products, which will have their profit margins eroded.
In a second moment, products without profit margins and with low demand will be phased out, product diversity will plummet – there will be things “you can’t find anymore”.
Thirdly, crisis will kick in, as profit margins wouldn’t be the sole or the major concern factor anymore, but instead infrastructure limitations such as truck fuel logistics, or plastics for packaging (we had this in Covid). At this point, the economy would be bad enough that many people would lose their income source, be it jobs or rents or whatever, so there would also be demand destruction here – and it’s at this moment that I think precious metals would be sought after by people. I can imagine people, say, some young people, selling their cars to buy gold, leaving their city apartment empty (removing the owner’s rent income) and then retreating with their parents to some rural area – these people would need provisions, and *I think* precious metals will play a role here.
Then comes lights out, and we can imagine what’ll happen.
Thanks for the kind words, guys.
Forgot to say the reason why I agree with you:
This youngster who moved with their parents to the countryside, now with their little bag of silver or gold pieces, could trade it for goods – say, food – but it will be very cumbersome.
People won’t know how to value things in gold, and the selling part might not need it at all. This type of exchange may only happen very late, or not at all, it’s hard to predict how things will unfold. This opinion of mine is due to Selco Begovic’s experiences in the Balkan Wars – fuel was very precious, so was alcohol, tabacco, guns, ammo and precious metals – but food and water were the star.
https://prephole.com/surviving-a-year-of-shtf-in-90s-bosnia-war-selco-forum-thread-6265/
Well, so, why do I agree with you? For the same reason the colonial Spanish Empire failed and the British Empire succeded – one became rich and lost it all hoarding assets, the other became rich and stayed that way by producing stuff. People have to offer something, they have to produce, they have to make, to work, and this is my better vision for the future as well, that instead of hoarding, I should focus on first self-sufficiency and then on producing, first food then goods. We as a society might fall, and we can fall down to the Stone Age, or we can fall only to mechanical-water-pre-IC Victorian Era, it only depends on us. If we can scrap and reuse steel from cars and buildings in the future, there is hope.
People are necessary for economics, historically there has mostly been a medium of exchange and that has been Ag and Au.
Real wealth is one’s children, self replication and with a good set of rules insurance for one’s old age; Honor thy father and mother that the days may be long upon the land which the Lord they God giveth thee.
God foresaw these issues. Our children are our only real investment; and frankly a very difficult one a ttimes.
Dennis L.
Who run bartertown.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-UZ4DvYBg&pp=ygUSd2hvIHJ1biBiYXJ0ZXJ0b3du
Gold and silver could, in its physical form, be an intermediate between communities.
After a few billion die-off. That is why we should shovel Gaza into the sea. There’s not enough to go around. Well, here’s ‘managed degrowth’. It is not pleasant, it is not a beautiful deleveraging. It is reality. Like Ukraine. Like Syria. Like Lybia. Like Thailand Cambodia. It is happening right in our faces.
The core will cut off a limb to survive. We live in a smart dissipative structure called geopolitics. Like it or not.
Migrants instead of refugees, Palestinian people instead of Palestinians. Until you run out of food yourselfie. Tik tok..
Beginning stages of the “Dollar/Fiat currency collapse”.
Yes, PM will initially be of “value”. At this moment it is evident so called cryptocurrency is a sought after “trading vehicle”, as investor Jim Rogers coined.
My impression the central banks are allowing to provide and worldwide introduction to the financial system. As Gail has pointed out, doubt it will succeed in the long run, but worth a try.
As a reader of Ancient Rome history, debasement of the currency was the norm, as is today. The Emperors did not have the tools to run budgetary deficits. Written individual accounts of panic to trade in base fiat coins before revaluation by Emperor Licinius in the Eastern provinces under his control.
https://dlib.nyu.edu/awdl/isaw/isaw-papers/14/
The Constantian Monetary Revolution
Roger S. Bagnall and Gilles Bransbourg
The fourth century CE represents a peculiar moment of monetary history. Most prices rose about fifty thousandfold, materializing the strongest inflationary period ever experienced during Antiquity. Traditionally, this price inflation has been linked to coinage debasement. However, the reality is more complex: imperial authorities also manipulated coinage tariffs in current units of account. This is particularly noticeable under the reign of Constantius II, when most prices increased about twenty-fold in a matter of few years in the early 350s, with no coinage change of comparable magnitude. Very interestingly, gold and silver rose to preeminence at the same moment, at the expense of base metal. We believe both phenomena were linked. A thorough analysis of papyrological and numismatic evidence will demonstrate that the increased supply of silver coinage was allowed by the removal of silver from the existing billon coinage supply, while growth in gold coinage depended on new metallic sources. The sudden price increase, sometimes explained by some form of competition between precious and base metals, would in fact result almost mechanically from the retariffication and subsequent demonetization of the existing billon coinage, replaced during that process by bronze coins of comparable monetary value but of much lesser commodity value. This led ultimately to the bimetallic gold:bronze bullion-based price system that defines the Byzantine period
Seems we experiencing another episode of such…
dont seel yourself short name—your english is perfect.
but to take up your point about value, a herd of cattle only has value if you have sufficient people to buy the meat and milk that derives from it.
the same applies to a ton of coal or a barrel of oil or an area of land.
I disagree. A herd of cattle will be exchangeable in a barter economy regardless of population size.
A herd of cattle will help support a village of people.
Fossil fuels require a global supply chain (empire) to give them any value beyond heating and cooking. For a group of hunter-gathering humans living in the jungle eating fewer cooked meals than people living in cooler drier areas, coal has very little value.
the exchange of cattle is an exchange of stored energy
Sooner or later cattle must be consumed–ie energy converted from one form into another.
Trading them doesnt alter that.
Owners of cattle, goats and sheeples, will breed their herd, so thereby can have their stored energy and eat it too by the measure of time and growth.
Cattle can be harnessed to do work, investing energy in milling, cultivating or transporting goods.
Cattle, Goats and Sheeples can produce offspring, milk, hides, wool, bone, and thereby a host of dairy or other byproducts that can be consumed, stored, repurposed or traded. Clothing or tools for example.
Dung can become fertiliser, or dried then burnt, providing plant nutrient or a heat source.
It is possible then to rebuild a collective and have capacity and motive to defend and enhance essential resources for a small community that then supports a wider group of parties seeking or trading resources, services or skills
Sooner or latter. Inaweekamonthorayear, Gail ,Tim, Name, Renate, Eddy, Norm and Guest (plus the many other possible earthly migrants) may randomly appear with Louis Armstrong singing ‘What a wonderful world’
Eddy will insist on bringing Plow hogs, nordic blonds and various stimulants, so we will need rules.
or another valley fir him to live in
Those with access and the ability to retain access to water, sunlight, grazing and land can cultivate their resources, renewing them, by simply occupying a territory managing it’s finite resource well and investing the time they’ve been given by The Giver of Time Life Land and Space.
what you describe is the economic system of the middle ages.
Which will not sustain a population of 8bn… (you cant fill supermarkets with a horse and cart)
they will protest violently, and insist that their god is displeased with everyone ele…
and take action accordingly.
As mentioned before Norman, if it aint fits in a basket, a bucket might be the solution.
A lot of people would just kill and eat the cattle.
A lot more people would have no idea how to contain them, much less manage them well.
I see livestock depopulation in my neck of rural VT. There used to be a number of people who’d ride horses on my road, but they’ve either aged out or the upkeep has gotten too expensive. Haven’t seen any riders since before covid. Dairy farms continue to go out of business.
I also disagree. a herd of cattle has an intrinsic value in that you can eat it, even if no one else wants it or can afford it. Like wise guns, matches, a potato patch do have intrinsic value.
a herd of cattle must be consumed by a group of people.
You cannot consume a cow on your own, before it starts to decay.
Therefore the ‘group’ must in some way be ‘transactional’—part of a group that herds and feeds cattle….the group must then consume other ‘stuff’—a large herd for instance requires protection against predators of all kinds, fodder must be sought, and so on.
A large group cannot sustain itself just on beef products.
“A large group cannot sustain itself just on beef products.”
In the context of my comment, cattle was described as something that could be traded for something else in an economy. Cattle were used for multiple things, not just food in preindustrial times. Most preindustrial humans societies did not depend on one food source.
Norman, you forget, there was an old lady who swallowed a cow!
there needs to be salt. worry not, no one will have a herd of cattle when the times comes. It is too dependent on diesel. cattle is an aberration of western civilization. Only milk cows will survive.
but surviving communities could split an animal a week. I note that my mother’s family would kill 3 pigs a year, before refrigeration, and were able to consume the entire animal.
my family did the pig thing too—amazing memories.
but we were not living in isolation
I have heard that sheep are the best way to feed a large population
It depends on climate and facilities Sample. I am in the business, and if you have a lot of grass sheep can be best. Cows are the worst meat producer. Chickens are too seasonal, or need warm enclosures, but IMHO pigs and rabbits are best at efficiently producing meat. needless to say, I was raised on pork and rabbit.
Now living in the country I am amazed at how strong one can be using mostly eggs and dairy. Those are even more efficient than any meat animal, and I suspect that except for gelatin/collagen, which you must have, and the occasional/optional offal one could stay in top health with little meat indefinitely.
Name , I agree with you . Precious metals will be the last ” bridge ” between BAU and collapse of IC . They will probably be the last roll of dice ( just like globalization ) . Please continue — your English is good and your inputs better . Adios .
@ Name Yours is the vital issue if/when we emerge “on the other side.”
My opinion is that silver will not be valuable as the PM pumpers would like you to think if there are no vital resources like food, water, garden tools, nails, wire, tarps etc., maybe bicycles as long as you have spare parts. inner tubes, tires and the roads and sidewalks are passable and yes, even guns and ammo.
Today the actual physical silver market is so miniscule, it is meaningless in the context of the overall monetary syste, althougbh its industrial uses may become less important in the event of the “crunch.”
The new motto revisited from the famous words Benjamin Franklin replied to a woman standing outside the Philadelphia Independence Hall after the Convention in 1787 asked, “Well Mr Franklin, what do we have, a monarchy or a democacy?” To which Franklin replied, ” A Republic ma’am, if you can keep it.”
Fast forward to the future. So what will the new response be? ” “A small community homestead, if you can keep it.” (meaning, defending it.)
Silver and later gold will make a comeback once communities and local markets coalesce and we move from baseline barter to trade which will require a form of money, meaning a store of value and medium of exchange. But all that will be on the other side. A generation or two, or three away I figure, now that I realize my “preps” have been based on unrealistic suppositions. Fast Eddy would agree. But it still makes for good You Tube prep clickbait.
I’d like to throw in another ‘store of value’, The existing coinage of the country.
It doesn’t have rarity value rather, commonality value.
All the coins are well known as is their relative value to each other. That knowledge won’t disappear out of the brain and will probably last longer than any ‘paper’ issued in future by the ‘authorities’.
In this addition to its ‘known’ characteristic, it meets a number of requirements for money tokens.
E.g. Recognisable by all, difficult or not worthwhile to forge, durable material, easily hidden, but of all benefits , it’s still available (if you are quick) and can get it at only small current cost without getting yourself put on a list for future ‘investigation’.
OK, so what’s its value?
Well coins are just tokens as any other currency using some material.
This one has very little intrinsic value, initially anyway,
(although the old 5 Yen Japanese coin with a hole in the middle makes an excellent non corroding washer and a lot cheaper than washers from a hardware store),
But its a token that could easily be accepted by anyone once some value could be established by the local community.
I think other civilizations had some system where they declare a chicken egg (or something) is worth one ‘zz’ token. Presumably the prerogative of the democratic leader of the local group.
All relationships is already known to other tokens, so Mrs housewife can offer 12 x zz tokens ( or a ‘lower’ value to a farmer for a dozen eggs).
The farmer can confidently offer some of these tokens for a pot of home brew to a neighbour, so the tokens gradually get spread among the locals.
Coinage too limited for some purchases? OK, there will be some other tokens which a few people have but can’t use in the current system or are to ‘valuable’ by their rarity criteria to reveal.
The democratic leader now becomes a money valuer and declares the value of such items as precious metal coins etc in terms of the the ‘zz’ coinage. The owner can keep quiet about what they have or go the the seller of a fine horse and offer a price in zz , transfer to be on gold coin, which both seller and buyer know the current change rate.
If the seller doesn’t want gold, maybe there is an employment opportunity for a money changer here.
Maybe a vacant synagogue in the village they can use, or is that considered bad taste?
Got no coins?
Check down the back of the sofa, No?
Sell some thing to someone is willing to pay in tokens.
Anyhow , I have quite a few coins and I’m hanging on to them ‘just in case’
https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1948549525473558545
> The world is entering a turbulent era of survival — and only Russia, Brazil, and the U.S. have the resources to be truly self-sufficient, argues strategist and former Russian intelligence officer Andrey Bezrukov…
But the question is whether these countries can hang together.
I would think that China would be up on the list, as well. It will have trouble staying together, as well, I suspect.
I wonder where he thinks our oil will come from, now that shale seems to have peaked. Maybe he includes Canada in his “US” category.
Lol no country has the resources to be anywhere close to self sufficient
Good point. Our high population today depends on an interconnected world economy.
I disagree. You can make a tractor without rare earths, antimony, or graphite. granted the larger the area considered, the higher the probability. It is appropriate to add canada which can be invaded in a week if need be. So I think those 3 countries can indeed be self sufficient so long as oil lasts.
The U.S does not have the resources to invade Canada
We absolutely do. We lack the political/social will to do so, however. If the CIA has any brains, they are developing secessionist movements in Alberta and any other oil regions, right now.
absolutely concur. they are working on Serbia Kosvo Moldova Philippines Azerbajian Armenia Burma. They can certainly do Alberta. They do not need Quebec, Ontario or even BC.
That’s not an invasion so your argument opposing Sam’s correct argument is a non-argument.
You separate color revolution argument is also unconvincing imo given basic peak oil systems theory.
It’s a testament to human frailty how often that even we, here, bargain with collapse, after all these years. If course, it’s also a testament to our survival instincts…under capture. The yin and the yang.
Fortunately we are metaconscious humans such that if we really put our minds to it we can still cultivate a mental freedom despite the captivity, if only for accuracy’s sake if it be not in the pursuit of physical freedom (survival) once open spaces emerge with the recession of civilization.
Reante, I was intentionally introducing different ideas, I didn’t restrict myself to only making an argument for or against OP’s assertion.
today you help independence movements, tomorrow you invade. patience grasshopper. the Ukraine war was 30 years in the making
https://sonar21.com/the-road-to-war-in-ukraine-the-history-of-nato-and-us-military-exercises-with-ukraine-part-1/
https://sonar21.com/the-road-to-war-in-ukraine-the-history-of-nato-and-us-military-exercises-with-ukraine-part-2/
https://sonar21.com/the-road-to-war-in-ukraine-the-history-of-nato-and-us-military-exercises-with-ukraine-part-3/
This is not about rare earths. Oil nation states currently exist because of a century or two of consistent coal growth leading to a century of oil growth. In the absence of consistent oil and coal growth lies only a progressive and, perhaps, halting collapse which does not meet the definition of self-sufficiency.
Russia is a prototypical, neocolonial petrostate. It doesn’t have a domestic market that can support itself. nor does it even own its own currency.
Anybody not incorporating peak oil systems theory into their worldview is functionally retarded, because their ‘flat-earth’ resource premise was false in the first place.
The emperor has no clothes.
you maybe miss the point drb.
wealth is only a derivative of oil when it is used to produce a million seemingly unrelated items, and we sell them to each other.
that is what global commerce is all about.
Think about it—beduoins rode on camels and lived in tents fot millenia.
They didnt get gold plated toilets until we took their oil away and used it to make things.
The same applies to all fossil fuel resources.
I assure you in survival mode certain resources are better than others, independent of price. and the speaker is in fact talking about survival. He did not have to work very hard to make that list. He picked only countries which are self sufficient for food and oil. They all also have some iron ores, and everyone has cement factories and gravel pits.
Then why did the USSR collapse as opposed to continuing-on in survival mode, ‘independent of price?
Given that money is a proxy for energy surpluses, price is ultimately a physical metric for measuring physical costs; and, ultimately, for measuring what’s physically possible and what’s not physically possible. The only reason that 100pc of Russian oil production is physically possible is the debt structure that steals from the future way, way better than the Soviet debt structure ever did. Stealing from the future has real consequences.
Really the speaker shouldn’t be talking about “survival” and “self-sufficiency” and “Russia” in the same sentence, because even in his fantasyland scenario Russia would lose half it’s population or whatever and that’s not self-sufficient and it shouldn’t be called Russia anymore because it wouldn’t have tax or military control over its existing borders anymore. What he’s saying is just hot air.
unless you put raw oil into simple wick-lamps, or caulk boats with it, it is useless without complex machines…
dont forget, until Drake came along in 1859, it was regarded as a nuisance, polluting streams etc
that was the point i was trying to make….it will not help much—if at all—in a survival situation.
You cant run mad max vehicles without refined oil…
and refining oil needs very complex systems, which are totally dependent on the existence of an industrial complex.
The failure of the smallest part can bring those systems to a halt.
The USA, with sealed borders, for instance, might run on for short time, a yeaer of two maybe, but collapse will be inevitable.
Why?
Because few can conceive of a wageless society—they will demand ‘growth’ irrespective of facts or reality . (MAGA in other words)
Because it could not continue the arms race obviously, and also because its oil production dipped.
It is reasonable to expect that in 20 years no one will be able to continue the arms race, if we can get there in one piece. Once that happens, you prioritize tractors and trains and other things necessary for societal survival. there is some sort of principle by which you want to be militarily better than your competitor, but not much better because it is expensive.
If what you say is true then Russia could have always relied on MAD for deterrence while dropping its union satellite states and embarking on a simpler industrialism based on autarky. That would have maintained its ideological beliefs. But instead it chose glasnost and perestroika, knowing that it was selling out to its nemesis in Global Fascism, and was destined to be colonized by it.
Why would the Soviet elite would betray everything it stood for? The answer lies in the application of Occam’s Razor to complexity theory; it wouldn’t unless it had to because of the soft-determinism of civilization: intensify the mode of production or collapse spectacularly.
Capitalism was that intensification over Communism.
Much too complicated Reante. It was a bunch of chews wanting to become billionaires at the expenses of the undermentsch. and they did. most people here realize it. Gorbachev real name is Orbach in case you are wondering.
Orbach ah that is informative.
In order for Communism to transition into a petrostate under global fascism, a private oligarchy needs to be installed because that is fascist structuralism, and jews are natural oligarchs. I didn’t know perestroika gorby was a cryptojew; that fits the pattern as Trump (Drumpf) is a cryptojew currently overseeing inverted perestroika…
Declining ore grades>
Glencore to Shut Australian Copper Mines as Smelter on Brink
Glencore Plc is on track to close its last two copper mines in Mt Isa, Queensland, next week, ahead of a decision on whether to also shutter a smelter at the same complex, and an associated refinery in a coastal town.
A shutdown of the mines — which have been operating for more than six decades — would end Glencore’s upstream copper operations in Australia, according to a spokesperson. The company announced the plan in October 2023 following a review that found they were no longer viable given declining ore grades. (Bloomberg)
https://x.com/chigrl/status/1948302092688413021
This is what happens. The high grade ore is removed first. Copper becomes more and more expensive to mine. The price does not rise high enough to extract the remaining copper, which is now expensive to extract. The owner shuts down the mine.
A similar thing happens with oil wells.
This is a sad situation that happens over and over again.
‘ . . . the banks have made giant loans to these private credit
29:39 companies and then the private credit companies are taking that money and loaning it to these risky firms that the
29:45 banks are not allowed to lend to the banks know where this money is going maybe they’re pretending not to know i
29:51 don’t know maybe they’re saying “Oh because this company is so big they’re magically diversified.” But at the end of the day the risk to the bank is the
29:59 same if all of these companies stop paying their their bills which we just went through several articles showing
30:05 these companies not paying bills then these loans are going to get defaulted on and if those loans get defaulted on
30:11 the private credit company could go belly up and if the private credit company goes belly up the bank ain’t getting paid back and look we’re right
30:16 back to bailing out the banks . . . ‘?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4WeYyqLH8M
‘Tiffany Cianci
@TheVinoMom
The private equity bubble has popped, & Trump is delivering the bailout they’ve been begging for! Mega Thread 1/12 Trump is planning an executive order to open $12.2 TRILLION in 401(k)s to private equity. This isn’t about “opportunity.” It’s a bailout for billionaires sitting on toxic assets they can’t sell. Here’s what they’re not telling you -”?
https://x.com/TheVinoMom/status/1948235140917854500
Didn’t Obama do the same thing?
What politician wants to stand up before a podium and tell the public that their 401ks are no more?
Can’t let the ship go down for any one problem. Need to paper over it as much as possible!
The underlying assets make/produce “stuff” needed by huma beings. Life is not always as “clean” as we would like.
Dennis L.
Newsflash: doing dirty every other species in order to spoon feed our own slave species a little bit longer is as dirty as it gets, Dennis.
As I listen to the beginning of the video, it is still something in the works. Crummy overpriced assets will be offered as an opportunity to be put in people’s 401k’s and IRAs.
We are not there yet.
The French debt crisis is bigger than it seems .
https://medium.com/wall-street-gradient/french-debt-crisis-is-worse-than-you-think-853f05f57fbd
The worse their crisis, the more belligerent they are.
It is terribly difficult to take away benefits that people have had for decades. There article starts out
I think Europe is on the ropes right now. How are they going to keep it going? I wonder what employment number are?
From the LENR news letter
LENR-Forum News April 2025
A monthly round-up of the best of LENR-Forum
Your Source for Open Science and Emerging Energy Technology
LENR Commercial News:
1.) Astral Systems Astral systems – A new class of Fusion Reactor is now offering their first product based on NASA’s Lattice Confined Fusion work:
“Based in Bristol, UK, Astral Systems was founded in 2021. Our Multi-State Fusion (MSF) reactor is a versatile, compact, and cost-effective solution for on-demand neutron production. We leverage cutting-edge fusion discoveries out of NASA and are continually advancing the effectiveness of our MSF technology. We offer high-flux neutron sources for decentralized and scale medical isotope production, nuclear power applications, and much more. Our first Mk1 product is now available for order with a fusion neutron performance that has a 10x higher output and over 10x longer lifetime than any compact neutron source on the planet.”
https://www.linkedin.com/company/astralsystems/?originalSubdomain=uk
Ironic the promise of LENR is radiation free fusion. This product is the exact opposite pure penetrating neutron radiation.
Any new approach, even if it works, has a decades long scale-up issue. And there are many kinds of energy used. Electricity can only replace a small fraction–around 10% or 11% of total energy use. I didn’t calculate the exact % in my last post, but the total isn’t very high.
The White House has just asked me to update my info update preferences. Controlling the narrative is a first tool in WW3.
He is blunt but he is right . Mike Shellman ,
https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/forum-stuff/america-s-oil-future
If we keep sharing facts I may loose my belief in the narrative.
If the U.S. can’t export shale oil its revenue will go down significantly. Not to mention this is all that has kept the world afloat.
The article ends:
I think we are looking at an economy that comes apart (failing government, disappearing pensions and healthcare, schools serving many fewer children) rather than $8 gasoline. Roads are not repaired. No kind of vehicle will run very quickly without roads in good repair.
30 people were in the Solvay Conference in 1927.
27 were born in Europe, 1 was born in Australia (William L Bragg, who spent most of his life in UK), and 2 were born in USA (Langmuir and another guy I forgot).
All of them were white. No Asians needed to apply.
44 people in the Meta Superintelligence Team
https://www.ndtv.com/feature/names-of-44-people-in-metas-superintelligence-team-revealed-only-2-indians-make-the-cut-8910835
21 from China
2 from India
1 from Israel
1 from France (Yann Le Cun)
1 from Germany
2 from Brazil (what?)
2 from South Africa (are they Musk’s cronies?)
The rest 12 are from USA, but out of these, 5 appears to be from China.
So, 26 Chinese, 2 from India, 28/44 are Asians, 2 South Americans and 2 ‘Africans’.
Is this the best humanity could produce now?
Follow U.S. Tech Workers on X, he gives details everyday about these matters.
https://x.com/USTechWorkers
It’s all by design. Fire American, Hire Foreign.
Both China and India have been infiltrating Tech companies and Academia, promoting ethnic-nepotism in hiring to seize control of American institutions.
Nothing new for those who can see, that’s the ‘real reason’.
Also, as a bonus, the companies allow themselves to indulge in such travesty with the ‘good reason’, which they claim brings bright people from abroad (we know this isn’t true and is a faux justification), but that they can also control – fall in line, work for pennies, work long hours, don’t unionize, obey my clique in the company, or lose your visa.
Basically indenture servitude. No good result can come from this.
Kulm your face diaper just slipped off. Thought you might want to know.
We are losing the middle class. This is what causes demand to fall. It is related to the indentured servitude problem.
So only the old guy from Europe? Hummm
Let me expand LeCun is excellent I really like his JEPA idea.
https://medium.com/@anil.jain.baba/jepa-lecuns-path-towards-more-human-like-ai-9535e48b3c65
My estimate in two years JEPA will show profound results. Don’t waste attention on Ash ken na zi who demand ownership and leadership of all AI.
From the WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/intel-earnings-q2-intc-stock-00bacf74
Intel to Lay Off 15% of Workers, Cancel Billions in Projects in Bid for Rebound
The American chip-making giant faces a strategic crossroads as it chases rivals like Nvidia and TSMC in the global silicon boom.
It makes a person wonder if the other chip makers will soon run into difficulties, too, if they cannot keep expanding as fast as hoped.
This is not an industry problem, this is an Intel problem. They let bean counters and financial types run the company, instead of engineers, and this is the result.
Correct AMD is in much better health.
Not much since Nvidia has overwhelmed AMD”s graphic cards
AMD has always been a distant second in graphics. They were focused on processors for the last decade, since the time they nearly went bust, but now they are dedicating more attention to graphics, now that they can spare the resources.
Texas instruments is in good health.
One issue is that the number of personal computers in operation worldwide has reached a plateau.
https://stats.areppim.com/stats/stats_pcxfcst.htm
The number of personal computers shipped stopped growing years ago.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/273495/global-shipments-of-personal-computers-since-2006/
There was a need to get into a hot new “niche.”
Personal computer sales seem to correlate to their application to do useful work. Once all useful work became done on a computer, personal computer sales plateaued, probably along with jobs involving heavy use of personal computers.
The source of growth for information technology companies since the 2000s has been entertainment ,ie. graphics cards and surveillance. So much of increases in computing ability seems to have gone into making graphics look smoother.
A.I. has more in common with mainframe computers, large computers used to process large amounts of data, than the personal computer and is a tool for large organizations. A.I. is being touted because it represents what some hope remains the status quo, the triumph of the large organizations over small organizations and individuals. Organizations not directly involved in controlling society have no use for A.I.
Intel missed the smartphone market. Intel seems to be missing the 2D/2.5D/3D packaging technology.
You might as well replace “Intel” with “USA” in these statements, since they amount to the same thing. Maybe the root cause is that USA engineering and education can’t compete in this field.
USA engineering and education was mostly the U.S. poaching other countries STEM workers. It was never about educating U.S. citizens. The lack of domestic workers who can “make stuff” is why any attempt to bring back skilled labor on U.S. soil is doomed to failure. The high wages STEM workers enjoy in the U.S. is probably correlated to a low supply of them. Some capitalists would like to change the situation but the solution is always poach more STEM workers from other countries.
Some things cannot scale and skills/ability are one of them. We cannot simply make more rocket scientists.
I should perhaps let commenters know:
My husband and I are planning to fly to Istanbul, leaving tomorrow about lunch time (about 19 hours from now). We will be taking a boat tour (Oceania) around the edge of Turkey, stopping at many ports along the way for sightseeing. We will see some archaeological sites and some modern things. We will fly back from Athens on August 9.
I hope to be able to check in for comments (let comments in moderation through and respond sometimes) while I am on the trip. I am hoping to have reasonable internet service. I don’t know if the trip will affect my ability to get a new post up quickly. I have already started on a new post, but I may not be able to put one up until I return.
We have a built in house-sitter while we are gone in our son who lives with us. Our other son lives nearby, and he will be by often, too.
if the orange messiah has been reading OFW—he may not let you back into the USA
For what is worth: one guy went back to the US from here. He is certainly high up in some lists made by friends of Trump, the dearest friends of both Trump and Starmer, due to his internet writings. He was let in without a peep. The same happened to three other guys and their families, granted they had less of an internet footprint, but still.
Have a nice trip!
Sounds like an awesome trip. Have fun!
Enjoy your trip. Don’t worry about us. Glad you will be back before the Trump deadline.
Have a wonderful time; good idea to do it while such things are still ongoing.
Dennis L.
I hope we don’t get to see a major collapse in Turkey. I am taking only costume jewelry along. We visit several small islands. I expect most of them get electricity by burning diesel.
Kevin Walmsley has another couple of videos or text reports out.
One talks about the likely further decline in foreign students from China, in the US and other countries.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6joYF5GKog
This is likely to adversely affect the finances of colleges and universities because Chinese foreign students pay “out of state” tuition. They also tend to spend more than other foreign students because their parents are wealthier. Walmsley remarks:
The other is about the problem with the supply of rare earths, and the US subsidy of rare earths to try to get supply up, and the black market that has arisen.
https://kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/espionage-and-pentagon-takeovers
Gail writes
“This is likely to adversely affect the finances of colleges and universities because Chinese foreign students pay “out of state” tuition. They also tend to spend more than other foreign students because their parents are wealthier. Walmsley remarks:
‘Higher education is one of the few industries where the US is running a surplus. As big as the American farm sector is, or energy, education is a lot bigger. International students reverse the trade deficits we run in other industries.’ ”
This is good reason why governments should tax U.S. colleges.
Correction: should have.
With less foreigners spending money on education, and high interest rates, we will discover how many U.S. citizens can afford to spend on education.
it’s amazing to me that the most valuable company on the planet is trading around 25x revenue (4 trillion / 160 billion annualized)
Faith in everlasting growth seems to allow people to make investments that seem crazy in a finite world.
But the stock market always goes up!
No, no, the dollar always goes down.
From the WSJ – help with the diesel problem, a bit. There was an earlier article that Trump was telling Chevron to leave.
https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/trump-administration-greenlights-chevron-to-resume-pumping-oil-in-venezuela-0353262
Trump Administration Greenlights Chevron to Resume Pumping Oil In Venezuela
Perhaps it is too soon to tell what the impact of the change was. It is a world market. Adding a little more might be helpful.
We are told we must pay interest on the debt and we must build hundreds of GWs of new electric generation to speed AI. These are both false. The workers can stop paying the holders of debt. Yes this will be bad for most of the readers of OFW but no harm to the workers.In fact a great relief for the workers.
Likewise the workers are not obliged to speed AI development at the highest possible rate. The workers can instead pass laws allowing themselves two months in the summer vacation and one month in the winter vacation. If ASI is tens years out rather than five we are all fine.
False they may be, but like covid, once people believe, even showing them the very personal cost will get you nowhere(try using the figures in the below link and watch the reaction).
AI does not and will not ever exist.
Despite all the wasted marketing, it’s only real accomplishment is the truly staggering amount of energy and money it’s burnt through(and the mindless compliance it’s help push along).
Ed, meet Ed
https://www.wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-money/
I would say money making AI will exist someday just not today. We just wait for the next 10x in chip performance and the next 10x in learning algorithm both of which may take 10 years. There is no rush unless you are a psychopathic who wants to do harm. Slow and easy wins the race.
I can’t see it happening Ed. All of its most marketable ‘skills’ are there.
It’s already burning through more finance and energy than the GDP of a small to medium sized country and 10x will only ever be achieved for the money and energy burn, nothing else, because in truth there is nothing else(apart from the control system that is the true intent).
From the other Ed
“Generative AI is probabilistic, and Large Language Models do not “know” anything, because they are guessing what the next part of a particular output would be based on an input. They are not “making decisions.” They are probability machines, which in turn makes them only as reliable as probability can be, and as conscious — no matter how intricate a system may be or how much infrastructure is built — as a pair of dice.
We do not understand how human intelligence works, and as a result it’s laughable to imagine we’d be able to simulate it. Large Language Models do not create “artificial intelligence” — they are the most powerful parrots in the world, trained to respond to stimulus with what they guess is the correct answer.”
They really are trying to rush it. It’s the last gasp for ownership and control and they’ll do all the harm needed to try to achieve that(Gaza is a conditioning tool).
AI won’t bring paradise, and a new era of civilization by themselves.
But it will be quite useful for determining the true value of two legged animals.
Existing AIs won’t replace the top echelon. But they will be enough to replace millions of BS jobs, since they are more efficient in that kind of tasks.
Utilitarianism and accelerationism will be the chief ideologies, with human rights, decency and entitlements become less relevant as the true value of humans are quantified and catalogued by AI engines.
That will also eliminate the energy blueprints of at least 4 billion, probably more, two legged animals which is a good thing in a utilitarian sense.
“IT guy who can’t seem to figure out that wildfire ops isn’t looking to swap out all the hardware in the middle of the fire season is thinking of starting own Artificial Intelligence program”
These guys IT are dumb as fuck. I can’t wait for the famine.
A rant . Copy/paste . 🤣
Thanks for that. It calls to mind the parable of the shoe-shine boy giving stock tips as an indicator of the market top. I don’t have the balls to short NVIDIA, but maybe I could buy some puts.
PS – where did you find that comment?
Survivalist on POB .
As the next article implies, it will wipe out millions of white collar jobs, releasing a lot of revolutionary forces, and help collapse the grid. As anarchy ensues, we will see if the inbred Augsburg (or Rothschild) are able to fend for themselves.
I agree that AI could eliminate quite a lot of jobs, if it can actually ramp up significantly. I am doubtful that it can actually ramp up significantly, however. Too many energy problems, for one thing.
Just imagine what this would look like if we had even more EV’s on the power grid? How about more AI data centers? Could it get even worse? No doubt.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/largest-us-power-grid-issues-max-generation-alert
This article is particularly talking about the huge usage of the data centers in one county of Virginia, new Washington D. C.
Its usage already seems to have hit a bottleneck. It has grown immensely, with the demand in the area (perhaps mostly from government) for more AI. This is a chart that is shown.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/virginia%20data%20center%20power%20demand.jpg
In fact, for the whole PMJ grid, forecast electricity demand is too close to the maximum amount expected to be available for the whole PMJ region (covering 13 Eastern states).
This is an EIA website I found that gives information about the types of electricity supply being used, and about the interchange with neighboring grids. It looks to me as if the MISO grid in the Midwest is exporting quite a bit of electricity to help out the PMJ grid.
What is powering the grid there? Natural gas or coal or Nuclear? AI will be continued to be fed…they have too it is the new arms race. If China gets too far ahead than they can shut down the whole United States if it wanted to. AI will continue to grow like Godzilla…..and the average Joe will just have less for himself.
Scroll down on the EIA link I gave and look at the chart. Natural gas is highest, then nuclear, and coal is third. Solar varies by the time of day, but it is below coal, even at peak. Wind doesn’t amount to much.
God Save the Queen…Nope, I’m outta here
One of the richest people in the United Kingdom, shipping billionaire John Fredriksen, is reportedly selling his 300-year-old Georgian manor in London a month after he declared “Britain has gone to Hell,” joining a mass exodus of super wealthy residents leaving the United Kingdom.
This Billionaire Is Reportedly Listing His $337 Million Home In London As Wealth Exodus Swells
142,237 views · 2 days agoForbes Topline Forbes 1.95M
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Y36tmXk3pMs
Good luck living in Dubai with temperatures as high as 50 °C in the summer. It’s a desert area after all. You have to stay inside especially being in your 80s.
Have you even been there. There is AC everywhere and it’s only really hot for 3 months of the year. It’s common for wealthy people to spend those 3 months in Europe anyway…The weather is actually really nice. The downside is the air pollution, not the weather. It’s also nice that there is no crime in the UAE and it’s not cold and miserable for most of the year.
I bet he goes to Oman, Georgia, or Paraguay instead. Malaysia maybe. There are many possible destinations these days. FE took the bait too early and he ended up in New Zealand and then in Australia.
Whatever, these folks can move around with their calling card.
Fast Eddie is a wandering chew and God only knows where he’ll end up finally…
Oh the beginning of the actual video gave massive numbers look f the ultra right ditching the UK…maybe they can rock and roll to the Rolling Stones “Exile on Main street”..Tumbling Dice and You can always get what you want…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0C8i6tOjt-M&pp=ygUic3RvbmVzIGV4aWxlIG9uIG1haW4gc3RyZWV0IGFsYnVtIA%3D%3D
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/making-sense/id1506469669?i=1000718840008
Europe is in trouble. Lowering rates won’t solve the problems
Banks in Europe are worried about individuals and businesses not being able to pay back their loans because of deteriorating business outcomes or bad job-related outcomes. As a result they are making it more difficult to get loans. This issue cannot be fixed by lower interest rates.
The thing I would point out is that this issue is one of many that causes oil prices to fall. With the cut back in lending, fewer people will go on vacations. Fewer people will go out to restaurants. Fewer businesses will invest in new production; fewer people will be hired and more will be laid off. Cutting back on lending is a way to make the economy shrink. It is a way to make the amount of funds available to buy goods and services fall. This is what brings oil prices down. It may even bring some food prices down. People may not eat as much meat, for example.
Surplus Energy Economics
The home of the SEEDS economic model – Tim Morgan
#307: Robert’s paradigm
Posted on July 23, 2025
THE POLITICS OF ECONOMIC CONTRACTION
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2025/07/23/307-roberts-paradigm/
This post is sort of a long economic history less. It makes some important points. Robert Lowe (1811-92), who is known for talking about the knowledge of reading, writing and arithmetic (but not religion) being important, and a predecessor to voting rights, also gave us this insight:
I think that this is an important insight.
He remarks about the rapid growth in oil consumption in the 1945 to 1980 period, and how this was accompanied by many other changes, including many more government services. He says,
He talks about slowing growth, and near the end says:
I find it quite interesting to read on the Oil – proved reserves tab that
“The methodology and timing of updating the reserves numbers is currently under review” – still.
Reserves started falling after 2018, and they stopped reporting the number after 2020. I guess they haven’t been able to devise a methodology to make things look good yet, despite having had 5 years now to work on it.
The reserves in the Middle East were greatly ramped up at the time the US oil companies left and production was taken over by local oil companies. The local government officials wanted the reserves as high as possible (or higher). Then, if I remember correctly, they were not reduced for what was extracted.
Venezuela is a different problem. The oil that is in place clearly cannot be extracted profitably at the current prices. Venezuela needs high tax revenue, and it cannot get it from the current oil prices. But the reserve numbers are very high, indicating that the oil can be extracted, supposedly at current oil prices, with current technology.
I don’t think many countries want to put a number to the amount of oil that can really be extracted at current prices with current technology. It is not obvious how a person gets to that number. Taxes are usually a big part of the cost of extraction in oil exporting countries. When taxes are included, the needed cost can be well over $100 per barrel for quite a bit of oil. No one wants to think about that issue.
It looks a bit sus is all – the previous methodology was good enough, until reserves started falling.
Lies of OPEC reserves . ” From 1982 to 1988 OPEC reserves mysteriously increased by 65% to 765 billion barrels ” . Just with a stroke of the pen .
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2018/08/16/does_opec_really_have_th
Reload link .
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2018/08/16/does_opec_really_have_the_oil_that_it_claims_110327.html
Right, this was when the OPEC quota system had allocations proportional to stated reserves; everyone was incentivized to overstate reserves.
I had forgotten this motivation. These reserves are supposedly audited, but in practice, this has no meaning in countries that are motivated to make their future prospects look as favorable as possible.
Gail, on your essay you say that diesel prices didn’t greet high enough in 2008 but they were about 6.40$ in today’s dollars. And then the crash happened but your chart doesn’t seem to express that… I must be reading figure 1 wrong
What I am showing is average prices for the year of 2008. It averages very low prices in December with very high prices in July. My graph shows Brent oil prices, rather than West Texas Intermediate prices, which are a little different. And then they are adjusted for inflation, to make things more confusing.
This is a link to spot oil prices for WTI oil (not adjusted for inflation), on a daily basis. If you look down the page, you can see the huge run up and down in prices in that year.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RWTCD.htm
This is information on the wholesale price (per gallon) of diesel fuel imported into Los Angeles.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/EER_EPD2DC_PF4_Y05LA_DPGD.htm
Similar numbers for New York City imported diesel:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/EER_EPD2DXL0_PF4_Y35NY_DPGD.htm
Diesel prices don’t necessarily follow oil prices either, especially if diesel is in short supply.
Oh ok that makes sense. Thanks for clarifying it.
Very interesting interview to John Helmer.
First part on a probable Zelensky’s government fall after thissummer, but not said the new one will be better.
The only way for Russians to denazificate Ukraine is to reduce size of Ukraine, whose current borders have been actually gifted by Russia itself during Soviet Union times.
And other very interesting arguments expressed in the interview.
Like during last 15 minutes about barbarification of conflicts.
Expecially about destroying other cultures not only places.
See what Israel is doing backed by US against arab-palestinian culture.
Or what have been done in Lybia and Syria.
I’d like to get a chance to listen to this, but I haven’t so far.
Poland discovers largest oil field in it’s history .
https://tvpworld.com/87939551/largest-ever-oil-discovery-on-polish-territory-made-in-baltic-sea-by-central-european-petroleum
and Patrick Raymond
”Here too, let’s have a laugh.
We’ve been told of the discovery in Poland of a “huge” oil field, 22 million tons with 5 billion m3 of gas. To convert the 5 billion tons into tons of oil equivalent, multiply by 0.00087, which gives 4.350 million tons. Poland consumes 35 million tons of oil and petroleum products per year.
Poland’s gas consumption is roughly half that of oil.
Needless to say, this discovery will be used to fill lighters.
In fact, the discovered deposit does not even cover a year of the country’s consumption. Laughable.
It still is the largest oil field in its history. It is hard to get any oil company to be interested in a small discovery.
Unfortunately it is on the left side of Oder. Gift of Stalin.
Germany will take it one way or another. Poland and oil are words which do mot belong in the same sentence.
Yes! Świnoujście is right on the current border with East Germany. It’s about as far west in Poland as you can get. The town’s German name, Swinemünde, is easier on my English eyes.
Historically, it has been under Danish and Swedish as well as Prussian/German rule at various times. The current population are all immigrants, as all the previous German inhabitants were forcibly removed in 1945.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-nuclear-weapons-uk-raf-lakenheath-2102419
The US is believed to have moved tactical nukes to UK and UK has decided to buy 12 nuclear capable F35 fighter jets from the US.
Iran is the target?
“Iran must not have nuclear weapons.” Trump
It is a strange world. When a country is short of resources, it wants to make war on other countries. In this case, it is the UK that is short of resources for its large population.
According to the article, the tactical nuclear weapons have already been dropped off in the UK, for use elsewhere.
You are speculating on the use of them against Iran. Another idea is to give them to Ukraine to try to use against Russia. Or to somehow set up a false flag event, and make it look like someone else is trying to use them against the UK. However it turns out, it can’t be good.
looks like the plan is now to begin de-population using nuclear weapons. the elders wanted to depopulate using vaccines this has now failed so the next stage is wiping out cities with tactical nuclear weapons or other sophisticated technological weapons of mass destruction. If the elders know that the energy resources are running out due to being not economically viable, then a large adjustment to the world’s population is required and fast.
clearing countries with nukes carries a few snags
i’m sure our ‘elders’ will have thought of them…
if you havent. i can let you know if few of the relevant details
If we know it then the elders obviously also know it, because we’re not special, we’re just paying attention.
Your hysterical theory would only make things worse for the elders because the nuclear power stations of the world would start popping off due to grid collapse.i suggest you come up with a more sensible theory or come into agreement with an existing theory, if you can find one.
” I count 2007/8 as the peak, for several reasons. Primarily because the wheels have been falling off the world’s economies since then. If shale counted it would have brought prosperity but it’s just the dregs off the bar at closing time. EROEI is all that matters now. How much conventional oil is being wasted to drag unconventional out of the rocks by fracking? All that sand and chemicals, endless train trips, endless pads built across the nation. It leaves nothing for society as a whole after the services and parasites are paid. Otherwise we’d have new highways and bridges and cheaper food wouldn’t we. Just like we had in the original oil boom.
I can’t believe how everyone got sucked in by the shale ‘revolution’ ” .
Copy/paste from POB .
Somebody please explain . Nov 2023 exports 4.7 mbpd –June 2o25 3.5 mbpd . What happened .?
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wcrexus2&f=4
Interesting issue. Exports of our tight oil are mostly down. Perhaps with the sanctions, other countries cannot afford as much gasoline products for private passenger autos.
I can tell you what happens in Italy, but I see similar trends for other European Countries, talking around with clients, suppliers or former colleagues.
In Italy 40% of circulating cars are lease company cars and they represent, I think, the great majority of fuel consumptions.
At the moment we are in a transition phase, most companies cars ending their lease plan are diesel ones, the new ones which will replace those cars are hybrid (gasoline – electric) or full electric ones.
This has been decided through unfavourable tax system, after Ukraine war, for those who still want full gasoline cars.
No one wants to see own salary reduced by tax system.
No need to mention diesel cars because diesel is considered the devil now in Europe and there will be no diesel company cars in replacing phase.
At the same time, we are seeing many lay-offs of white collars (people who have company car allowed) and also ufficial requests of reducing travels by companies themselves in favour of possible alternative with video calls.
So, I think that gasoline consumption in Italy now is only for the rest of 60% circulating cars, but those cars represent the minority of consumption and travel the strictly family necessary.
I think this is the picture.
don’t believe the numbers,AI is now in control of all reports so everything you see is false as one of the commenters stated we are now into the dregs at the bar,the elders know this and desperate times call for desperate actions how long have we got before the lights are turned off and everyone left in the bar are told to get out. in other words with shortages and deflation looking almost certain a major reduction in the world’s population looks like the only course of action now available to the elders to keep their dreams of the great reset alive.
I am not convinced that it is an EROEI issue.
We need diesel and jet fuel. Oil from shale has very little of these. It is particularly good at providing gasoline, but that is mostly for private transportation.
Tight oil from shale adds more complexity, with all of its water for fracking and need for later disposal. Complexity is hard to measure.
We try to trade our tight oil for heavier oil that will provide diesel and jet fuel.
You’re on a first date.
You ask them “what is your favorite book?
You get up and leave..
What was the book?
12 rules of life.
I don’t get it.
Any one of about half of them.
Norm and I are strongly in favor of asking them on a first date.
Charles Hugh Smith talks about how badly AI seems to work in real life applications, where precision is important.
https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2025/07/maybe-ai-isnt-going-to-replace-you-at.html
Maybe AI Isn’t Going to Replace You at Work After All
AI fails at tasks where accuracy must be absolute to create value.
The problem is that AI only gets things 90% right. This may be good enough in a college paper, copycat song or cutesy video.
Sadly, much the same is true of many people these days. Being reliable, doing things properly, and delivering the product on time and on budget are becoming the exception rather than the rule.
An interesting article discussing how the glut of information now available makes it less valuable overall, leading to less respect for those who purport to have a monopoly on information, and leading us to no longer value the pursuit of knowledge.
Artificial Intelligence Breeds Mindless Inhumanity
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/artificial-intelligence-breeds-mindless-inhumanity
I tried using the AI tool included in WordPress to make an image. It didn’t work well at all. I tried rewording what I wanted in simpler terms, one step at a time, and that seemed to work less badly. But it is not a tool I will try to use on a regular basis.
Are artists really that expensive? Or are they useless because there is no culture that art can use to communicate through anymore?
Wise to avoid Gail. It’s almost exclusively gibberish.
In the US it burns through roughly 4.5% of all electricity used and that’s set to rise to 25% in 3 years(following current growth).
It loses eye watering amounts of money every day with no break even point in sight, but like all other systems of surveillance and control, the finance will continue to flow.
It’s already taken over science and governments are now being noticed for producing fairytale papers.
The local government in Tromsø has just been found out.
“And they naturally had just cribbed together the 124-page document using chatGPT, because why not, so when pissed-off citizens actually looked at the thing, it was both incoherent and full of references to fake sources. This immediately raises scholarly questions like “who in all of fuck would even think to do something like this?” and “what adult human being is dumb enough to think they’d get away with it?”
In Britain, our Secretary of State for ‘science’ has been exposed for using it to attempt to understand what his own job entailed(not joking).
“The FOI request reveals that Kyle leveraged the powers of the chatbot for advice on how to dispense his official duties, such as what podcasts he should court to further his public relations work, or for learning the meaning of difficult words related to the areas of his supposed expertise.”
“Feels nice to know that proper experts are running the show, doesn’t it? So yeah, we’re apparently in a timeline where a government minister proudly proclaims that he’s googling “difficult concepts” crucial to his field and yet is not unceremoniously thrown out on his ass due to blatant incompetence. At least make an effort to hide the fact that you don’t know what you’re doing.”
https://substack.com/@shadowrunners/note/p-168852008?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=7c6fx
Johan has covered this subject a lot and shows LLMs for what they really are. He also nicely reminds people of different ways to put a spanner in the gears.
Fast Eddy is promoting Hunter Biden for president 2028. Now the world makes sense.
Link?
Would you really want that one?
In his email to subscribers
China’s Property Market is Still Cratering
Inbox
Fast Eddy from The World According to Fast Eddy Unsubscribe
Jul 21, 2025, 8:42 PM (2 days ago)
…..
Hunter Biden For President!
He is the perfect candidate to oppose Trump in the next fake election.
AOC and Andrew Yang
UBI + Universal Healthcare!
How do you pay for it?
Hippidty hoppity seize private property!
to pay for healthcare requires actual money
unfortunately ”private property” isnt ”money”.
if i owned, say, a 1000 acre farm, and it was ”seized” to go into the healthcare fund—who would ”buy” it?.
If everyone’s estates were being ”seized”, then there would be no buyers, and hence no conversion into money.
same applies to any property you can think of.
no healthcare system can keep people alive to 100, or every baby born alive to reproductive maturity, or cure every infirmity.
I’m lucky, most of my peers are either dead or in care, but when my time comes I don’t want doctors testing their cleverness to give me another few months to live. TYVM.
Just trying to point out the obvious.
The farms would have to significantly produce and sell more food in order to pay for healthcare. Any property seized would have been to be pimped out in order to “pay” for more government services.
The output of the economy aside from medicine and government welfare, would have to grow significantly to “pay” for ubi and free healthcare.
I never see proponents for these things go into poor countries and say the (non-existent) government needs to spend its (non-existent) budget on free healthcare and ubi.
Where does this if no one can afford this but the government can pov come? Wish fulfillment?
Is the government a supernatural deity?
//////The farms would have to significantly produce and sell more food in order to pay for healthcare. Any property seized would have been to be pimped out in order to “pay” for more government services.//////
probably not worth the effort—but here goes.
farm output is entirely dependent on energy input—farms cannot produce significantly more….anf if they did, their produce would have to be ‘sold’ somewhere to provide income.
you are indulging in daydreaming BS
I’m not saying that it’s possible, Norman…I’m saying that is the only way it could be “paid for”.
We would need productivity to rise significantly to make those social services “affordable”, and that has not happened in several decades for very obvious reasons that you repeatedly state.
You need an awfully productive economic system to “pay” for all kinds of governmental services, including healthcare and universal basic income. Some people have thought that all that was needed was more debt. But even seized property doesn’t work very well.
When my husband and I visited St. Petersburg in Russia in 2012, we saw an apartment that had been subdivided so that could be occupied by several (six?) families. There was a single bathroom for the share apartment. There were four clothes washers for the families.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Four-clothes-washers-in-shared-kitchen-1.jpeg
Those people are certainly maximizing efficiency but it remains unclears as to whether they are being very productive.
Dr. Zhivago!
It seems that Russia is a small crowded country, and we have been lied to all these years.
They will have to erase the dollar (cash), if they can, because the total debt in dollars is unpayable. Hyperinflation of the USD would be the smoking gun that would lead to the destruction of central banking and fractional reserve debt-based fiat systems.
So for our “protection” dollars will be converted into a system of tokens or credits. Presto! All those USD debts get transformed into digital mumbo jumbo- call it CDBC or crypto or stable coins. The losses have been transformed into tokenized credits! You’re still “rich!!” or so you think.
So then they could regulate your money supply and its use, taxation, invest vs spend decisions just like they can regulate your electric consumption with smart meters, your cell phone service, internet service, fossil fuel credits, ability to travel, or ability to purchase certain things like health care- all with the flick of a switch.
It boils down to control. New boss, same as the old boss. Digital xo’s, but no bread on the table.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SDJj9yyqds
“What you need is a manager.” @ 1:35
“I got heart but I ain’t got no locker, do I Mick?” @3:00
i think you are stil chasing in the wrong direction….
give any name you like to money—but if it isnt underpinned by cheap surplus energy, it will have no value, and will not provide the means to buy ”stuff”.
I don’t think you appreciate my deep cynicism, Norm. Of course it goes back to energy, raw materials and an honest medium of trade and store of value. All three of these are slipping away.
Or, they could just maintain continuity of currency (and therefore government) by the tried and true method of capital controls.
They are both into Bolivian and hookers. Makes sense.