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Economists, actuaries, and others tend to make forecasts as if whatever current situation exists will continue indefinitely or will perhaps improve a bit. No one wants to consider the possibility that things will somehow change for the worse. Politicians want to get re-elected. University presidents want their students to believe that their degrees will be truly useful in the future. Absolutely no one wants to hear unfavorable predictions.
The issue I see is that many promises were made during the period between the end of World War II and 1973, when oil prices were very low, and most people assumed that oil supply could grow endlessly. No one stopped to think that this was a temporary situation that likely could not be repeated. If things didn’t work out as planned, debt bubbles could bring down the economy. This was a heading I used in my talk at the recent Minnesota Degrowth Summit:
In this post, I will provide a few highlights from my recent talk. I also provide a link to a PDF of my Degrowth Summit talk and a link to a Vimeo recording of the summit, which includes a transcript. To access the transcript and an outline of the timings of the various talks, scroll down on the front page of the recording. Joseph Tainter spoke first; there was a recorded section showing clips by other speakers that only online viewers saw, and I spoke last (starting at about 1:55 on the video).
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Between 1920 and 1970, US oil supply grew rapidly. The early oil was easy to extract and close to customers wanting to purchase it. There had been warnings from physicists (including, most notably, M. King Hubbert) that this could not go on indefinitely, but most people assumed that any obstacles were far in the future.
Of course, there were other countries producing oil besides the US at that time, so it was possible to purchase imported oil. The US still had some oil it could produce, but it tended to require more complex operations. For example, some of the oil was in Alaska. Bringing this oil to market required working in a cold climate, laying a long pipeline, and using ships to transport the oil to locations with refineries.
Low oil prices were very beneficial to the economy, for as long as they lasted.
We don’t appreciate how important low-cost food is to our personal finances. If food purchases amounts to, say, 50% of available income, necessities such as clothing and housing would take nearly all our income. There would be little left over for optional items. On the other hand, if purchases of food require only 5% to 10% of available pay, there would much more likely be money left over for discretionary purchases, such as buying a vehicle or paying for school tuition for a child.
Oil and other energy products are like food for the economy. During the period when oil prices were very low, there was sufficient margin for purchasing all kinds of “extras,” such as the items listed in Figure 4 below.
In the low-priced oil era, small businesses were sufficient for many types of operations. There was little need for a deep organizational hierarchy, or for advanced energy-saving versions of manufactured devices. Most goods used in the US were made in the US.
Once the economy started to need more complexity, things began to change.
The economy needs a strong middle class to maintain the buying power needed to purchase goods such as vehicles, motorcycles, and new homes, to keep the price of oil up. If the middle class starts to disappear, or if young people start earning less than their parents did at the same age (adjusted for inflation), then it becomes difficult to keep the prices of oil and other energy products up. Prices must be both high enough for producers and low enough for consumers.
Recessions took place when oil prices rose. Governments found that they needed to bail out their economies with more debt when oil prices rose. Since 2008, the ratio of US debt to GDP has skyrocketed. Quite a bit of the added debt has been to pay for programs for poor people and the elderly.
The current level of debt of the US government is widely viewed as being too high. One analysis suggests that if the ratio of government debt to GDP exceeds 90%, economic growth is inhibited. The US debt to GDP ratio is now 120% on the basis shown, which is well above the 90% threshold. One concern is that interest payments on debt already exceed the amount the US spends on defense each year. Taxes need to rise, simply to pay the interest on the debt.
Growing debt, particularly during the Stagflation Stage, is one of the issues mentioned by researchers into so-called secular cycles, which are long-term cycles that take centuries to complete. In the book Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov, a group of people somehow obtain possession of an area of land (often by cutting down trees or winning a war) that allows the population of the group to temporarily surge. When the population reaches the carrying capacity of the area, population growth greatly slows in a period referred to as Stagflation. Wage and wealth disparity become more of a problem, as does debt.
Eventually, according to Turchin and Nefedof’s study examining eight societies, populations tended to collapse over long periods, ranging from 20 to 50 years. Such cycles are closely related to the periods of growth and collapse analyzed in Prof. Joseph Tainter’s book, “The Collapse of Complex Societies.”
The time ahead looks worrying, if my analysis is correct.
A few comments for my regular readers:
- My presentation included 51 slides. Look at the PDF to see the full presentation.
- Even though I didn’t mention it, having a rapidly growing energy supply at a very high EROI would not be sufficient to forestall collapse indefinitely. Other issues would emerge. Population would rise higher, and pollution would be more of a problem. Eventually, the system would still reach a limit and tend to collapse.
- I only included EROI because I thought a few people would already be aware of the concept. I didn’t define it or talk about it.
- My analysis seems to suggest that extenders of fossil fuels, such as wind, solar, and nuclear, need to have very high EROIs. But even with high EROIs, they are unlikely to be helpful for very long because the system would still tend to reach its limits.
‘I believe, Mr. President, today and tomorrow we can announce that we are going to increase that $600 billion to almost $1 trillion for real investment,’ says Saudi crown prince
What a joke . Total GDP of KSA is $ 1 Trillion a year . Learnt a new acronym KALB . The prince just did that .
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/saudi-arabia-to-invest-1t-in-us-crown-prince/3747358#
KALB = Kiss A°° Lick B°°°S
Making promises and keeping them are two different things.
Peter Zeihan claims that Exxon Mobil has figured out a new proppant to substitute for sand that is already helpful in increasing shale oil/gas production. The proppant uses a waste product. We know that today’s oil and gas extraction leaves huge amounts behind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cythBGQJ4Us
I would comment that EROIs don’t necessarily fall over time; they can rise if technological breakthroughs allow more efficient ways of doing things.
Does not talk about cost only tech .
If Exxon finds it worthwhile, this is a lot more important than a company with 10 wells started an idea last week. We need to watch what Exxon is doing.
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2025/11/descubriendo-nuestra-propia-ignorancia.html?m=1
Europe is screwed …. The u. S will steal oil from Venezuela
hole in headNovember 18, 2025 at 5:02 PM
VZ is a distraction from the problems at hand for the Trump administration. First VZ is a Marco Rubio game and not DJT. Rubio must do something, anything if he wants the chance at the presidency in 2028 against Vance. How can US invade VZ? Look at the logistics. VZ has borders with Guyana, Brazil and Colombia. Brazil and Colombia will not allow US troops both are hostile to DJT. That leaves Guyana. The border is treacherous mountainous and jungle. Difficult terrain for the attacking force. This leaves an
amphibious landing. The last successful amphibious landing was D Day in Normandy 85 years ago and it took a year of preparation with hundreds of thousands of soldiers. The current US flotilla has 20,000 soldiers. On land the attacking force must be 3 times the size of the defensive force and in an amphibious landing 6 times the size. This is the order of battle. If the US goes via the sea landing they will be massacred on the beach. Next, not only the battlefield will be won but also secured. Without food and ammunition supply on a continuous basis it will be a disaster. It took allied forces 6-8 months to prepare the land invasion of Gulf War 1 that too when it was on friendly soil and had support from other Arab nations. This is my point of view, please correct me.
PS: Putin learned the hard way when he started the SMO with a 1:1 ratio in Feb 2022; He had to regroup and restart with a 3 : 1 ratio.
History is full of failed amphibious operations. Notable failed amphibious landings include the Gallipoli Campaign (WWI), the Dieppe Raid (WWII), and the Battle of Cartagena de Indias (1741). These failures were often caused by underestimating enemy defences, poor coordination, loss of surprise, or difficult terrain, leading to heavy casualties and strategic setbacks.
SAINTNovember 18, 2025 at 6:07 PM
The operation will not be an Iraq-like scenario. I visualize something akin to the notorious Libyan campaign. Whether a DJT idea or not, he is the one responsible for it and a step in that direction will certainly be a huge backup to the Wall Street boys and their Neocon friends
hole in headNovember 18, 2025 at 8:43 PM
The Libyan situation is not the same as VZ. Qaddafi’s bodyguards were from Mali and Chad and were mercenaries — available for the highest bidder. The West was able to bribe Chad, Niger, Sudan and Egypt to send military forces to assist in the overthrow. Maduro’s people are staunch Chavezists, they are driven by ideology and not by money. The only people left in VZ are now Chavezists just like in Nicaragua where the only population is Sandinista’s. Of course there is always a Brutus.
hole in headNovember 19, 2025 at 7:46
Another staging base is shutdown in Ecuador
https://www.npr.org/2025/11/17/nx-s1-5610974/ecuador-referendum-u-s-military-bases-noboa
VZ is just a distraction .
Interesting Ravi you might be right; im just not a 💯 percent convinced that they don’t have a plan. It seems strange just having all the troops there waiting is an expensive endeavor. I always thought that if resources got scarce this is how the U. S would respond. Quark seems to think that Venezuela oil would add 10 to 20 years to u.s supply. I’m not sure of that.
Trump and Rubio are idiots . The admirals know better . There are no easy wars left ;
https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/admiral-obvious-sings-a-jingle?utm_source=multiple-personal-recommendations-email&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true
Technology breakthroughs are possible in a lot of different areas. Venezuela looks like a place where technology breakthroughs would be helpful.
Live 4K video of Earth and space: 24/7 Livestream of Earth on the ISS
Some of the HAM radio operators at my club are trying to make the last contacts with the ISS before it crashes back into earth. Can no longer be sustained because of lack of a maintenance and other things. Perhaps better back ground music would be “Bittersweet Symphony”….played collectively of course.
The NASTIES are doing it again in British Columbia.
In this video Dan Dicks of Press For Truth covers this newest case just days after the Ostrich cull while also exposing this for what it is: another step toward total control over our food and our lives.
It’s ALREADY HAPPENING, The CFIA Is Now Going After A BC ANIMAL SANCTUARY!!!
An animal sanctuary in B.C.’s interior says it is facing a heartbreaking experience after discovering a positive case of “H5N1”, also known as “avian flu”.
Critteraid, based in Summerland B.C, says that its team and volunteers are “devastated” by the discovery because their animals are at the centre of everything and “the emotional weight of this moment is immense.”
The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) has already taken control.
https://x.com/DanDicksPFT/status/1987993668431822928
Substacker Reinett Sener writes (and speaks) about how easy it is to become suicidal or homicidal by inhaling, ingesting or absorbing through the skin a ubiquitous chemical:
Recently, I experienced a chemical exposure that could have cost me my life. I won’t go into the details here, because I want you to hear the story in my own words, but I can tell you this: what happened to me is not rare, and it has taken other lives. Most Americans have no idea how common their exposure to this chemical, and others like it, is.
While these toxins have been banned or strictly regulated across much of Europe, Americans are still exposed to them in ways that are hidden in plain sight, inside homes, salons, construction sites, and even everyday products.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-176930471
Spoiler Alert!
She’s specifically talking about tolulene.
Do you mean “toluene?” It so, this reference may be of interest:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK599523/
Book published in January 2024, but also long article on “Toluene toxicity.”
Marco Rubio rejects talks with Nicolás Maduro. “There was time to talk, but it’s over. What the Venezuelan people want is freedom, and it’s time to act, not to accept proposals that aren’t fulfilled.”
https://x.com/Worldsource24/status/1991244884506820833
Energy consumption per capita is down a lot since 2012 in Venezuela. This would make people very unhappy.
2012 111.2 gigajoules per capita
2013 107.9
2014 104.2
2015 99.2
2016 91.8
2017 89.1
2018 74.9
2019 68.9
2020 53.0
2021 63.0
2022 68.38
2023 74.21
2024 73.87
Electricity production has also been falling.
These things make citizens very unhappy.
Nothing more than US hegemony. He’s been lusting for regime change throughout Latin America since he left Cuba and Cuba is also on his list for regime change. Neocons, gotta neocon.
“The time ahead looks worrying, if my analysis is correct.”
It always does. What would it look like if it were 1938 in Europe, late 1941, or the 90s in Moscow, early 1975 in Saigon, or right now in Kiev (where they’re packing their suitcases of cash, ready to flee)?
Life goes on nevertheless, don’t forget to party.
Best delusional/hilarious phrase spotted in the comments: “Establishing a zero-carbon lunar colony presents significant challenges”.
Nb. Substitute “lunar” with “lunatic” and it makes more sense.
NASA currently says they don’t have the technology to get to the moon (they lost it somehow . . . ), perhaps the old technology wasn’t green enough.
Interestingly, if Russia’s nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile, a weapon with a theoretically unlimited range is real, it suggests miniature nuclear power plants are close.
Given the US/West is forcing other countries to coalesce into an alternative bloc and that bloc has the best resources and tech, who do you think will do well?
Mind you, my belief is growing that the political games are a sham and they’re all playing for the same side really.
Worriers could do worse than listen to this one every morning.
Why must I worry
Try not to hurry like other people
Why must I worry
‘cos you know yourself
That is not the way
Who am I to tell you lies
And then say I didn’t mean it at all
You see me, you hear me
But you don’t know what I’m saying
You feel it, you take it
In your stride
Why must I worry
Try not to hurry like other people
Why must I worry
‘cos you know yourself
That is not the way
When you call me
Talk about the yesterdays
Cheers me, steers me
Follow better reason
To feel it, an’ take it
In our stride
what me worry?
Or this one.
Baby, I see this world has made you sad
Some people can be bad
The things they do, the things they say
But, baby, I’ll wipe away those bitter tears
I’ll chase away those restless fears
That turn your blue skies into gray
Why worry?
There should be laughter after pain
There should be sunshine after rain
These things have always been the same
So, why worry, now? Why worry, now?
Baby, when I get down I turn to you
And you make sense of what I do
And, no, it isn’t hard to say
But, baby, just when this world
Seems mean and cold
Our love comes shining red and gold
And all the rest is by the way
Why worry?
There should be laughter after pain
There should be sunshine after rain
These things have always been the same
So why worry, now? Why worry, now?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQfXQRP95z4
China’s Quantum AI Chip Sends SHOCKWAVES Through Silicon Valley… NVIDIA in Trouble! (34:21)
3,418 views Nov 19, 2025
“China’s new photonic chip is shaking up the tech landscape with claims of massive speed gains, ultra-low power use, and real deployment inside data centers. This video breaks down how the thin-film lithium niobate design works, why it matters, and what it means for industries like aerospace, finance, and advanced research. The story also explores how this shift challenges the dominance of traditional processors and signals a major move toward next-generation hardware.
“Discover why this breakthrough is drawing global attention, how China scaled production so quickly, and what it could mean for companies that rely on heavy computation.”
Interestingly, a lot of niobium is stored at CERN. Will the famed physics lab suffer the same fate of Detroit abandoned homes, stripped of all their copper?
About 88% of the world’s niobium production comes from Brazil — a charter member of BRICS, with China.
Civilization does not always advance.
Sometimes it declines, and when it does, it does with a vengeance.
I personally think the world is entering a stage to reverse everything which happened since 1776.
It is now clear that the American experiment has failed. Instead of leading the world to the future, it has been taken over by people who had nothing to do with 1776.
A massive backlash and a movement toward older style of living is inevitable in my opinion.
Like the Easter Islanders (I refuse to call them Rapanuians), the current PTB will fritter away the last remaining resources to try to prolong today’s lifestyle, and nothing will remain.
its what happened since 1709, not 1776…..
I know a member of the family (7th generation) who literally started it all.
His bank card pin number is “1709”..
highly likely that the elders will try another plandemic to stave off collapse
“zip on November 13, 2025 at 4:46 pm . . .
Iraq relies on Iran for roughly 40% of its electricity through gas and power imports. The turbines around Basra, the pumping stations that maintain reservoir pressure, the cooling systems of Umm Qasr, even the water injection at Majnoon and Halfaya—all depend on the same umbilical cord running through Iran. If Tehran enters hydrological shock, gas exports shrink. And when the gas shrinks, Basra crashes.
And when Basra crashes, the Gulf does too.”?
https://climateandeconomy.com/2025/11/13/13th-november-2025-todays-round-up-of-climate-news/
Could you provide a better link on this? My AI assistant claims that Iraq only gets 4% of its electricity from Iran.
My guess is that around Basra, a much larger share of electricity is from Iran. There probably are not transmission lines to send electricity from other parts of Iran to Basra.
I hate to be the one to put a damper on the dreams of zero carbon colonies on the moon and beyond but…according to Brave’s AI search engine
Establishing a zero-carbon lunar colony presents significant challenges due to the Moon’s lack of essential volatiles like carbon, nitrogen, and hydrogen, which are critical for sustaining life and industrial processes.
While the Moon’s regolith contains oxygen, silicon, iron, and aluminum, and there is evidence of water ice in permanently shadowed polar craters
, the availability of carbon—necessary for organic materials, food production, and fuel—is extremely limited. Carbon is not naturally abundant on the Moon; it is primarily present in trace amounts adsorbed into the regolith or potentially trapped as methane, carbon dioxide, and carbon monoxide in polar cold traps.
Even if such deposits are exploited, the quantities are insufficient to support long-term, self-sustaining human activity without external input.
Where’s the “stuff” to sustain space colonies going to come from?
The moon is not a promissing future home for humanity. But it may be valuable as a mining outpost, producing bulk metal oxides that are exported and subsequently used to build things in high Earth orbit. Much has been said about the prospect of frozen volatiles in polar craters. But these deposits are likely to be small and are difficult to access. The best place to build a base is in the lunar mare, with their titanium and iron rich regolith. These are the most promissing materials to mine and also have the right terrain to set up a mass driver.
Yes, didn’t see this post prior to my earlier reply.
Dennis L.
The lack of understanding of how the metals are concentrated into forms we can mine here on Earth is stunning.
A little geological knowledge of all the processes involved, from magmatism, plate tectonics, erosion, atmospheric oxygen, lifeforms were all involved in concentrating the metals from the ppb or ppm range here on Earth.
Try and think clearly about how many of these processes are missing on the moon and in space generally before thinking of fairy tales about mining the moon or anywhere else.
We know for fact that around the first 500km of the moon’s depth is basalt. Surely if basalt was worth mining for separate metals, we’d be doing it here on Earth first?
Interesting point! It is the concentration that makes a difference.
Yes, Mars is better place in that sense of semi-active magma and volcanoes..
Disclaimer: not expecting humans colonizing it ever.
https://www.worldofcoins.eu/forum/index.php/topic,13509.msg173396.html#msg173396
FIGHT HUNGER THROUGH SPACE EXPLORATION
——————————————————
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8kT6J_uoic
Alien Bases On The Moon
The Amazing True Story of Ingo Swann
From first link:
“”FIGHT HUNGER THROUGH SPACE EXPLORATION”.
Interesting slogan. “We’re starving to death – what to do? I know – let’s catch a spaceship to the moon. I’ve heard it’s made of cheese. 🙂 It would probably be cheaper to go to the supermarket – if only we had one in our country.”
asparagus in the oort cloud
And nobody knows how to ship it to the earth
while keeping it fresh.
I’d smoke that shit. Purple and green so fresh and so clean.
Assuming there are other minerals of value, why does one need carbon? What does one principally make with carbon? Is there an alternative way to mine the other materials?
Dennis L.
We need carbon to support life. There is none on the moon.
Surely, you must have learned about how life on Earth is based on the abundance of hydrogen, carbon and oxygen at some point.
ty guest
been saying for years now—that if the moon had worthwhile resources, commercial ventures would have been there within a decade or less of the original apollo expeditions of the 60s.
the reality is, that there is nothing there of any commercial use.
Unless……
Unless……
Unless……
Unless, heaven forfend!, the original Apollo expeditions of the 60s (and 70s) didn’t go there.
Buzz Aldrin wasn’t too clear about that, was he?
Guest
Humans can’t live on any other planets because they don’t have magnetic fields. The solar radiation would fry us.
Unless they want to live underground, which is pointless cause you just do that here.
Helium 3 only (probably) exists at the Moon’s poles, at least the south one. Fusion needs the energy density that only Helium 3 provides. This might eventually be the compelling reason to get mining robots to the moon.
This was chronicled in the minimalist movie “Moon”. Worth a watch.
Humans have not been able to start and sustain a nuclear fusion reaction so your statement is very moot.
In regard to the now to be released Epstein files, I can read it only as the global lords moving to replace Trump. The optics is pretty good for them. Trump campaigned about it, then reneged in a way that also showed that he is an arrogant imbecile with a closetful of skeletons. Then the Dems released them, on their way to a 2026 triumph. Likewise the Ukrainian scandal is in preparation to Zelensky’s removal.
What will they do with the replacements, which I assume will be Pence and Zaluzhny? Obviously they are owned as much as their predecessors. I expect the global financial crash to precede Trump’s removal, so that he can be accused of horrible mismanagement. This will also kill the MAGA movement, and its natural successor has also been bumped off (memo to Mossad and CIA: can you please, just once, do a credible false flag? do you really have to distribute videos with disappearing walkers? ). I assume Vance will push legislation to further develop the panopticon state, but beyond that I do not see what he can do in 24 months.
It is clear that the first target now is Venezuela but it is just as clear that they have realized they are going to lose many ships. Zelensky has been outstanding at killing Ukrainians and clearing the land for the second coming of Israel, and has been paid off handsomely. Not clear to me what Zaluzhny can do better.
Massie said he’s worried that now that investigations have been opened, they will use that to not disclose the files; there are laws that information subject to an ongoing investigation is exempt from disclosure.
There seem to be loopholes in what will actually be released. We will see.
That may allow the pressure on DJT to be applied gradually.
quiet piggy!
Trump is ultimately the useful idiot.
people like Peter Theil are infinitely more dangerous.
Agree. and would you not imagine who is the adelson widow equivalent for Vance? sorry for ruining your day Norm, specially on a day when we agree.
if we agree for once drb–why not just enjoy the day…..
I agree, but thiel is really bad.
agreed—
Theil is going to ruin all our days..
Yes Norm now we are on the same page.
agree Theil is the evil one
The only person more dangerous than literally Hitler is literally Antichrist. There goes the lifetime presidency and here comes tribulations instead.
drb753, this is a very probable scenario and, even if it will not follow exactly the same path, it will go in a similar way, so you get the development right, in my view.
That way, it shows also that the ‘global lords’ that you mention have become so greedy that they will continue to ‘divorare con le loro fauci’ their own tail (using this expression on purpouse), showing a continuation of the scenario happened with covid.
We have heard many stories about overproduction of goods in China. Exported goods often seem to be sold for less than the cost of production. Local demand remains low, despite many attempts at stimulus. Now it appears that China has started to shut down some of the loss-making companies, leading to a situation which almost certainly leads to a loss of jobs and, in not long, lower production.
Jeff Snider of Eurodollar University talks about China’s crash in investment, as it closes loss-making businesses.
Looks like the consequences of Covid-era lockdowns are forcing America’s nearest neighbor to make large cuts to its government as well.
I wonder what the progressive spin on this is.
They obviously aren’t doing it to appease Donald Trump.
My conclusion: The US cc is full, no one else has a sufficiently large cc.
One way to solve these issues would be very cheap natural resources not subject to biological energy to mine.
We are getting there.
Dennis L.
My conclusion is it is futile to think about the pie in the sky, which might or might not exist, and we are not getting there.
https://oilprice.com/Metals/Gold/De-Dollarisation-Strategy-Fuels-Massive-Unreported-Gold-Purchases.html
De-Dollarisation Strategy Fuels Massive Unreported Gold Purchases
“China is buying gold as part of their de-dollarisation strategy,” said Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle, who says he does not try to guess how much gold the People’s Bank of China is buying.
“Unlike oil, where you can track it with satellites, with gold you can’t. There’s just no way to know where this stuff goes and who is buying it.”
And since official Chinese data is unreliable at best, or simply fake, traders had turned to alternative sources of data to gauge demand, such as orders for freshly cast 400oz bars with consecutive serial numbers, which are typically refined in Switzerland or South Africa, shipped via London and flown to China, for evidence of the country’s purchases. The same analysis we have been doing since 2022. . .
This accumulating has been so relentless, that gold’s share of global reserves outside the US has climbed from 10% to 26% over the past decade, World Gold Council data shows, making it the second-largest reserve asset after the dollar. Yet fewer and fewer of these purchases are being reported to the IMF, which collects data voluntarily.
In the most recent quarter, only about one-third of official buying was publicly reported, down from about 90% four years ago, according to WGC estimates based on Metals Focus data.
Related to
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ft-confirms-our-report-2024-china-buying-10x-more-gold-officially-disclosed
At least gold doesn’t get consumed like fossil fuels, etc. — but, otherwise, what good is it? (inane remark)
I guess it’s as good as gold.
LOL! You can use it in tooth fillings, to impress others with.
Hmm. Do you Americans hold “Open your mouth and impress me!” parties?
In the 1930s, the German SS would not accept any man who had a single tooth filling.
It is a means of exchange which cannot be counterfeited,
Dennis L.
You’re kidding me right; there are all types of fake gold coins floating around
The problem with this de-dollarisation idea is that the US remains the world’s largest consumer market for goods exported from the east. China has an ageing and shrinking population, unable to buy enough to support its own industry. Russia is a small market. India is poor, but may be more significant in the future. Until 2020, the Euro was a significant secondary global currency. But ageing European demographics and poor decisions with energy policy, have led to economic stagnation.
Paul Belang has (not active) on YouTube and provided a case on how will work under a Gold base reset…very well explained
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pV2XoSVhzsc&t=11s
My personal theory about the upcoming reset. Enjoy.
Transcript is included for those that prefer
Some comments
Credit expanded up to 1971 to keep up with energy. Gold backing removed in 1971 due to a “bank run” led by the French. Energy and economy kept expanding. Now we’ve hit a limit. Energy is starting to contract. The debt will need to contract with it. I don’t know what will happen with population.
@belangp
5 years ago
There have been a little under 6 billion troy ounces of gold mined throughout history worldwide. There are 7.5 billion world inhabitants. That leaves less than 1 oz of gold per person.
I wonder If now central banks will be forced back to gold
@belangp
5 years ago
I believe they will be
PS.. I bought his book too on Amazon…good
It seems to me that if the quantity of goods and services produced worldwide decreases year after year in the future, the quantity of “money” will also need to decrease, or there will be inflation.
Investors want to be paid “interest” (or return on capital) for new investments. This interest or dividends on stock will tend to reduce the total amount of goods and services for the rest of the economy (unless the investments are truly productive).
With falling energy supply, it becomes very difficult to make truly productive investments. A whole lot of goods and services need to go to just maintaining the infrastructure we have–roads and bridges, water mains, and railroad tracks, for example.
I especially like the first comment you posted:
“Credit expanded up to 1971 to keep up with energy. Gold backing removed in 1971 due to a “bank run” led by the French. Energy and economy kept expanding. Now we’ve hit a limit. Energy is starting to contract. The debt will need to contract with it. I don’t know what will happen with population.”
Yep, closely matched even in the popular culture domain of that period for sure. Several blockbusters dealing with the shipment in/out of *FR, featuring starz like Jean Gabin, Lino Ventura, Delon, Belmondo, Trintignant, ..
—
* FR self governed country at time to large degree vs today’s near bottom-abyss
Seems by the actions by Central Banks, especially China, and others is pointing to what he has explained in his video. Whatever happens, the run up of the price of Gold has been remarkable, to say they least.
PS. His catch phrase is Get me some and suggested a 100 ounce stash back when gold was “cheap”, if one could afford it. Afraid it’s not any longer for the average citizen
The concept of saving in that vehicle for the “average citizen” aka little people sound a bit unrealistic to me. The methods in over-taxation or even direct expropriation have been used in the past successfully. Perhaps some local jurisdictions like around the Gulf could grant some basic rights for the biz clientele for a period of time. But forget about it in the mid-longer perspective within EU and likely in larger chunks of the US (in times of after/secession)..
Perhaps the better preservation of value was to position your/our-self into necessary-hi demand type of jobs: medic/doctor, chopper pilot / mechanic, specialty AG expert / niche farmer, etc..
Current situation:
1. The US is preparing $2,000 stimulus checks
2. Japan is preparing a $110 billion stimulus package
3. China has approved a $1.4 trillion stimulus package
4. The Fed is officially ending QT on December 1st
5. The US is issuing~$1.9 trillion in treasures per year
6. Canada is restarting its Quantitative Easing program
7. Global M2 money supply is at a record $137 trillion
8. Global rate cuts are at 320+ over the last 24 months
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1990434911220539749
Perhaps leaders everywhere are worried about collapse and are trying to keep it away.
The link says, “In what world is another wave of inflation not on its way?”
But the real issue may be that the world economy would otherwise be starting to see deflation of the type that China has been encountering and has been trying to export. Much of this debt is thus perhaps to keep the whole system away from collapse from falling prices.
“Americans Are So Poor That Now Even Eating At McDonald’s Is Considered To Be “Prohibitively Expensive” For Many People”
https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/americans-are-so-poor-that-now-even-eating-at-mcdonalds-is-considered-to-be-prohibitively-expensive-for-many-people/
I suppose americans’ health will improve. Or maybe not, as Happy meals are replaced with the cheapest doritos.
That American vector of diving into fastfood chains as their #1 option always puzzled me. From personal experience few decades ago, nowadayz likely much worse on the ground; today’s situational clusterf. is likely caused by daemonic interplay of many peculiarities:
– weird rental-acommodation policies often times not allowing even for basic not to mentioning proper cooking
– weird income / wage taxing schemes, “vouchers-coupons” for real-food not always present or accepted by vendors
– de-industrialization vs say German-Chinese-Korean mega-factories where ~quality food is being provided as standard option
– longish d/d commuting/travel distances
..
.
The nutritional aspect of fast food is almost negative on the overall balance (cheap-fake ingredients, detour travel). Large segments (perhaps now majority) of Americans can’t grasp that all these “individual ingredients” are actually used in RoW for millennia as the basic-bulk for the main dish served..
Specifically, potatoes, lentils, spinach, rice, (pasta well ok), .. You then only add to it what fits and you tend to like: ham&eggs, ham wraps w. horseradish dip, sauerkraut, pickles (cucumbers or beetroot etc.), .. ; and obviously additional substantial servings of real bread (rye) NOT only chem-white toasts!
They don’t even eat basic combo of curd/cottage cheese + whatever fresh fruit on sale out there. That’s what have been people eating since the last ice-age (and likely even before)!
What’s interesting ALSO the newly incoming migration waves stateside just after ~2-4genenerations tend to abandon these sane old practices and mold-lapse into that fastfood junk sewage as well.. It’s surely connected with some anti-social, family/clan culture – brake down dynamics..
Mind you all the above could be even prepared easily on parking lot with camping natgas cookware kit and 1-2pots.. AND IT’S CHEAPER THAN FASTFOOD so no excuses (apart from unraveling economics)..
Practical experience..
Just had ~1l, i.e. two quite large servings of green-peas soup, later added midsized spoon of quality lard, sliced radishes optional, dipped with acido-phylic milk (~sour creme); plus obviously several slices of rye bread, and tiny brown baguettes. The total cost incl. energy (but w.out “labor”) ~= under $2.5 !
ps it could have been upgraded to [full lumber-jack ed.] via added bacon etc. – but strong enough as such anyway..
—
discussion: haven’t you also noticed recently that lard is no longer on sale – it use to be regularly say at least 3-4x per year previously – my hunch is that they need it for the war front – troop’s menage/tin can mixes.. ?!
Copy/paste .
Felix PotterNovember 19, 2025, 8:20
I was using AI to conduct a comparative analysis of the current situation with the 2000 and 2008 crises, and after seeing your post, I added this data. The result:
Final Conclusion:
The market is in the final phase of Euphoria/Distribution, but massive global stimulus has the potential to prolong this phase beyond the historical average duration. The breakout window remains centered on 2026, but liquidity could push the peak into the second half of the year, or even later, if QE becomes explicit and aggressive
our dear leaders know collapse is certain, therefore they must do 2 things
1—-convince the proletariat that their prosperity will increase forever… (hence the maganuts etc).
2—-try to insulate their own perceived world against the inevitable…
the joke being, of course, that neither of the above will be of the slightest use except in the very short term…
You are a bit behind the times, Norman.
In 2022, President Macron said to the French nation:
“I believe that we are in the process of living through a tipping point or great upheaval. Firstly because we are living through… what could seem like the end of abundance.”
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220824-macron-warns-french-of-tough-times-ahead-end-to-energy-price-cap
That didn’t sound like he was trying convince the proletariat that their prosperity will increase forever, did it?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/super-creepy-world-ahead-2026-economist-magazine-cover-shows-they-expect-war
Super Creepy ‘The World Ahead 2026’ Economist Magazine Cover Signals War, Pestilence, & Financial Collapse Next Year
There is one magazine that represents the interests of the global elite more than any other. It is known as “The Economist”, and each year it puts out an issue that is dedicated to what is coming in the year ahead. . . If you want to know what the global elite are thinking, this is the publication that you need to be reading.
And the cover for “The World Ahead 2026” issue is perhaps the most ominous that they have ever published…
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/The-World-Ahead-2026.jpg
When you look at that cover, what stands out to you?
To me, the fact that there are so many symbols relating to war really got my attention.
There is a huge red tank on one side of the cover, and another huge red tank on the other side of the cover. . .And just like last year, Donald Trump is right in the middle. . .
Getting back to the magazine cover, I also noticed that there is a chart that seems to depict some sort of a financial crash right under the crossed swords.
And not too far below that chart, there is a red image of a broken dollar sign.
In addition, throughout the bottom half of the graphic it looks like paper currency is falling everywhere. . .
I also noticed two gigantic syringes near the bottom of the cover.
And throughout the cover there are lots of “pills” floating around. . .
Lastly, I wanted to mention the giant raised fist near the top of the cover.
A raised fist has been the primary symbol of resistance to the Trump administration. . . Are the global elite planning civil unrest in major U.S. cities in 2026?
.
I must be not media literate.
I really couldn’t make sense of what the “artist” was trying to convey. The cover, at least to me, appears to be visual gibberish.
Once upon on time covers like those had to clearly communicate ideas.
The cover looks like a large mood board or image search results for
“geopolitics” or something on a search engine website.
Although I’m pretty sure The Economist’s publisher paid close to nothing for that image, I think A.I. could only be an improvement over something so devoid of humanity. There’s a branch of modern art that is all about making art that looks like it was made by cold, calculating machine. Only one problem. Machines can’t make art. Machines have no desire to communicate complex ideas.
Yes, this is ominous. There is no doubt some predictive programming or signaling future planned events at work.
Remember the December 2012 Economist cover that predicted (among other things) Netanyahu vs. Hamas using hang gliders?
What a coincidence that was!
https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2012-12-22
PREDICTIVE PROGRAMMING?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AKn5fs9oLg
The U.N. Security Council gets dustified.
Villains already had access to hi-tech weapons in those days.
=======================
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_avGXrwlug
Batman and the Boy Wonder mull a solution.
=======================
https://youtu.be/Lb_Yo3Q4Bgs
Re-hydrating the Security Council.
Alas, there is a hitch.
Here’s a preliminary response by a Nobel physicist, to the study claiming that the universe is now decelerating, that we discussed the other week. It points out what he perceives as a couple of structural methodological weaknesses in the study. Official peer reviews still to come.
https://www.universetoday.com/articles/remember-that-paper-claiming-the-universe-is-decelerating-heres-what-a-nobel-laureate-has-to-say-abo
I thought that the recent paper didn’t say the universe is decelerating. I thought it said that the rate of acceleration is slowing.
This is a link to my previous comment.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2025/10/31/a-lack-of-very-cheap-oil-is-leading-to-debt-problems/comment-page-2/#comment-495195
This was in response to this article:
https://ras.ac.uk/news-and-press/research-highlights/universes-expansion-now-slowing-not-speeding
In, say, classical mechanics things thrown off a center of gravity slow down. I see no reason for the universe to also slow down its expansion under the force of gravity. There is almost certainly an independent determination of the mass of the universe in there.
Consider a hypothetical: What would be happening if there was no gravity?
Would the Universe be expanding even faster than it is in the presence of gravity?
If so, then it follows that the Universe has slowed down its rate of expansion under the force of gravity compared to what it would be doing in the absence of gravity.
One of my many fields of non-expertise is cosmology, although I read a lot of popular books on that subject in the 1980s and 90s, when it was a cool subject for nerds.
These days, my cosmology is very rusty. But I’d like to ask, does gravity operate instantaneously, or at the speed of light?
If gravity operates at the speed of light, then distant parts of the Universe that are moving away from each other at ridiculous speeds close to light speed may never experience each other’s gravity, and so it won’t slow their expansion at all.
“Consider a hypothetical: What would be happening if there was no gravity?”
What would happen is, exactly what is happening.
Yes, I’m saying gravity is about as good an explanation as viruses and all measurements of expansion are thus BS. Red shift is a fraudulent measure, just ask Halton Arp.
https://youtu.be/E9R_Wl87EQI?si=UtolAEje1Ii-9IEq
“Red shift became the primary evidence for an expanding universe. Light from distant objects shifts toward red wavelengths, which mainstream astronomy interprets exclusively as recessional velocity—objects moving away from us. Astronomer Halton Arp spent decades documenting quasars with high red shift physically connected to galaxies with low red shift, proving red shift indicates something other than just distance and velocity. The astronomical establishment destroyed his career for this heresy”
Everything is plasma and electromagnetic forces and unlike gravity, it is reproducible and doesn’t need wild, everr changing theories to hide the fraud. No dark matter or dark energy exists, that’s just fluff to fill the holes in the fraud(so many holes).
Welcome to the electric universe.
“The gravity-only model fails catastrophically at cosmic scales. Galaxies spin too fast for gravity to hold them together. Galaxy clusters move too quickly to be gravitationally bound. The universe’s large-scale structure—vast filaments and voids—cannot be explained by gravity’s attraction alone.
Rather than reconsidering their foundation, astronomers invented dark matter. Invisible, undetectable, interacting only through gravity, dark matter supposedly constitutes 85% of all matter. When observations showed accelerating cosmic expansion, they invented dark energy—70% of everything that exists, completely undetectable except through its supposed effects.
The standard model now claims we can only detect 4% of the universe. The other 96% is mathematical fiction created to save bad theory. This isn’t science—it’s doctrine defended through invented entities. Ptolemaic astronomers added epicycles to preserve Earth-centered cosmology. Modern astronomers add dark components to preserve gravity-centered cosmology.
Electric cosmology explains galactic rotation through electromagnetic forces. Galaxies are homopolar motors—Michael Faraday’s invention scaled up a trillion-fold. Anthony Peratt’s supercomputer simulations using only electromagnetic forces reproduce galactic structures perfectly, including rotation curves that mystify gravity-only theorists.”
You’ll enjoy this Tim and I would encourage looking further into some of the people mentioned(Becker, Firstenberg, Scheff).
https://unbekoming.substack.com/p/from-big-bang-to-5g-the-suppressed
Fitz in that case you give terrain theory a bad name by lumping in viruses with gravity. Lol. Jesus. You ‘flat earther.’
As far as I can tell the Electric Universe theory doesn’t even suggest that gravity doesn’t exist, as you appear to be claiming. Which is on par with Flat Earth Theory. The Thunderbolts guys just want to have it both ways, saying gravity acts locally but not universally, as if local isn’t also universal.
So you tell us how the moon orbits the Earth without the existence of gravity.
Right, you can’t. So maybe you should consider that electric universe theory can’t explain consciousness either. Which means it can’t explain everything. Yet you insist that “Everything is plasma and electromagnetic forces.”
Welcome to (nested) emergence. Both gravity and (metal)consciousness are emergent evolutionary properties of electromagnetic and thermodynamic physics.
(meta)consciousness not metal
Thanks, both of you for your insights.
Looks like I have lots more reading to look forward to.
Astronomer Halton Arp spent decades documenting quasars with high red shift physically connected to galaxies with low red shift, proving red shift indicates something other than just distance and velocity. The astronomical establishment destroyed his career for this heresy
This is an interesting nugget, certainly.
The doppler effect for light has been verified experimentally, or so I’m told.
For example:
Laboratory Experiments: On Earth, experiments have demonstrated the Doppler effect with light using lasers and moving mirrors or observers. These experiments confirm that the wavelength of light changes based on the relative motion between the source and the observer.
Solar System Measurements: Within the Solar System, spacecraft have also observed the Doppler effect in signals transmitted to and from Earth. For example, the frequency of signals from spacecraft varies depending on their motion relative to Earth, allowing scientists to measure their speeds with high precision.
I thought that light also undergoes a red shift when it is escaping from a gravitational well.
To wit:
Gravitational Well: A gravitational well is a region in spacetime where the gravitational field is strong, such as near a massive object like a planet, star, or black hole.
Energy and Wavelength: According to General Relativity, as light climbs out of a gravitational well, it loses energy. Because the energy of a photon is inversely related to its wavelength (higher energy corresponds to shorter wavelength), this loss of energy causes the wavelength of the light to increase.
Redshift: This increase in wavelength results in a shift toward the red end of the spectrum, which is why we describe it as a “redshift.”
Observational Evidence: Gravitational redshift has been observed in various contexts, including light coming from stars and galaxies, as well as from the regions near massive objects. One famous confirmation is the observation of light from white dwarf stars, which shows a measurable gravitational redshift.
So, if these quasar dudes are humongous, ginormously massive objects, it makes sense that light would be red-shifted when escaping from their gravitational wells.
I’m with Reante in that the electric Universe theory makes sense to me and Newton’s theory of universal gravitation also makes sense as a simplified description of what’s going on in the Universe.
At the same time, once we get into relativity, quantum physics, and cosmological-scale phenomena, it is head-scratching time for me and eye-rolling time for Norman.
In physics it looks like deceleration means slowing acceleration, and outside of physics it gets used interchangeably, which is not good.
Riess has a vested interest of course. And his Nobel prize used study also used correlation studies. In fact the entire history of distance determination in astronomy’s history is about finding correlations. It seems to me that the Asian team had one more correlation to work with.
If course he does. As he should. If by vested you mean intellectually invested. Competitiveness begets greatness. You’re intellectually invested in dark energy not existing and I’m intellectually invested in it existing. And as stated in the previous discussion, I don’t see that either the Asian study or the previous views subvert dark energy theory because both views still hold that at least our observable part of the universe is expanding.
Your argument would make more sense to me if you countered his argument rather than counted correlations because his contextualizing of correlation may be more fundamental than the Asian team’s regardless of correlation count.
Regarding correlation itself, Reason itself is simply based in accurately correlating dynamical cause and effect. This is certainly not a ‘correlation does not equal causation’ conversation because the cause of the expansion is not a part of either study. That said, I’m not saying you’re saying that, but I am saying that dynamic correlation IS physics itself, so it’s also the study of physics.
Telegraphic summary: the Chinese are working with more information than Riess, who is not going to second guess his own result. It is fairly reasonable that II-A light curves be different in the early (dense) universe. it is also entirely obvious that the universe expansion should be decelerating due to gravity.
This said, all these correlations are not as strong as earlier methods used to determine distance. They are about as strong as Tully-Fisher (which is never used in fact). Recapitulating: an observation using the most extreme technology finds an unusual effect. A new entity is assumed. Further info diminishes the apparent effect (there was also another paper published maybe two years ago concluding no need for dark energy).
This is cosmology, which does not check all the boxes when it comes to being a real science. And it is not the only black eye it has. Have you ever heard of inflation (cosmological)?
Sure, at some point(s) the universe should be decelerating, although I see it as an open question whether that’s due to gravity or some hypothetical structuring of the universe that causes gravitational variability depending on location within the universe. I’m attracted to the toroidal universe hypothesis because it patterns with the fractal nature of reality imo (the Cycle is the first fractal), and if we look at an animated gif of a toroidal universe overlaid with a geospatial grid, we can visualize the ‘liquid’ gravitational variability/dynamism, and imagine the havoc that it would wreak on the otherwise valid redshift Theory that can’t see enough of the universe to understand the larger variability of the gravity field and the effect that it has on lightwaves traveling through space; an additional unseen variable producing different experimental results and so causing disagreement within the establishment.
Just throwing that out there. It’s not an unpopular alternative new agey view these days, even amongst Thunderbolts folks presumably. Especially among them, maybe, for better or worse. But it doesn’t have to be that.
https://tenor.com/view/dm-gif-25703611
So that’s why it takes me so long to get things done these days.