Item of General Interest
July 11. I recently received word that an article that I am a co-author on was accepted by the academic journal "Energy." The name of the article is "An Oil Production Forecast for China Considering Economic Limits." The article talks about the possibility that oil prices may not rise endlessly, and evaluates three future price scenarios. Under the "low" scenario, which is the under $50 per barrel scenario, oil production in China has already peaked.
Tag Archives: limits to growth
$50 per barrel oil is clearly less impossible to live with than $30 per barrel oil, because most businesses cannot make a profit with $30 per barrel oil. But is $50 per barrel oil helpful? I would argue that it … Continue reading
Most people believe that low oil prices are good for the United States, since the discretionary income of consumers will rise. There is the added benefit that Peak Oil must be far off in the distance, since “Peak Oilers” talked … Continue reading
The Wall Street Journal recently ran an article called, Glut of Capital and Labor Challenge Policy Makers: Global oversupply extends beyond commodities, elevating deflation risk. To me, this is a very serious issue, quite likely signaling that we are reaching … Continue reading
Oil limits seem to be pushing us toward a permanent downturn, including a crash in credit availability, loss of jobs, and even possible government collapse. In this process, we are likely to lose access to both fossil fuels and grid … Continue reading
How long can economic growth continue in a finite world? This is the question the 1972 book The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others sought to answer. The computer models that the team of researchers produced strongly suggested … Continue reading