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Recently, many people have begun talking about the US having a k-shaped economy. In it, a handful of wealthy people are doing very well financially, while many others are falling further and further behind. I expect that the low wages of the majority of workers will soon lead to adverse impacts on businesses, governments, and international organizations. This phenomenon is likely to lead to a very uneven world economic downturn in 2026.
The world economy is subject to the laws of physics. The world economy seems to be reaching growth limits because there are too few easily extractable energy resources (as well as other resources, such as fresh water), relative to the world’s population. The Maximum Power Principle strongly suggests that even as limits are hit, the world economy cannot be expected to collapse all at once. Instead, the most efficient producers of goods and services will be able to succeed as long as resources are available, while less efficient producers will tend to fall by the wayside. Thus, the Maximum Power Principle somewhat limits the speed of the world’s economic downturn.
In this post, I will try to explain the challenges the world economy is now facing. I will also provide some thoughts on how 2026 will turn out.
[1] The k-shaped economy that the US and many other countries are experiencing is an indication that resources are, in some way, “running short.”
Humans all have similar basic needs. They need food to eat, and they need to cook at least some of this food before they eat it. They tend to need transportation services, both for themselves (to get to work) and for goods, such as the food they eat. They also need governments to keep order and to provide basic services, such as roads and schools. All these goods and services require energy of a suitable kind, such as human labor, burned biomass, or fossil fuel energy. They also require arable land, fresh water, and minerals of many kinds.
If there are not enough resources to go around, the easiest way to accomplish this is by creating a k-shaped economy. One example is with farmland. In many traditions, when a farmer dies, his oldest son inherits the farm. Younger children are then forced to find other kinds of employment, such as being a craftsman, farmer’s helper, or priest in a church. Wages for these younger children can easily fall lower than the income of their land-holding older brothers, especially if large families become common. Creating jobs that pay well for all the younger children becomes a problem.
A similar phenomenon has been happening in many Advanced Economies (US, UK, and other countries included in the OECD) in recent years. Parents are doing quite well financially, but their children often have difficulty finding jobs that pay well, even after advanced schooling. Some adult children are also left with educational debt to repay. This is a new type of k-shaped economy.
[2] The world’s current problem is an ever-rising population paired with resources that are becoming ever-more “expensive” to extract.
World population has exploded since fossil fuel consumption became abundant. This has allowed more food to be grown, inexpensive transportation of goods and people, and the development of antibiotics and other drugs.
At the same time, the most accessible resources were extracted first. For example, fresh water initially came from streams, lakes, and shallow aquifers. As the population grew and industrial needs became increased, wells had to be dug deeper and aquifers began to be drained. In some places, desalination now needs to be used. Each of these advances in producing fresh water became more resource-intensive. It became increasingly difficult to gather enough fresh water using human labor alone. Instead, increasing quantities of physical materials, energy supplies, and debt were needed to make the new systems work.
The reason debt was needed to purchase capital goods, such as those required to obtain high-cost water, was because the devices purchased were expected to provide the desired output (water, in this case) for a long time in the future. Securing this future benefit required advance funding, using an approach such as debt. The sale of shares of stock, which are expected to appreciate over time and pay dividends, provides a similar benefit to debt.
A similar issue arises with the increasing extraction of minerals of many kinds, such as copper, tin, uranium, lithium, coal, and oil. Early on, extraction using manual labor and simple tools was sufficient. However, once the easiest to extract resources were removed, capital goods became necessary to make extraction efficient.
Capital goods, such as coal fired power plants, wind turbines, solar panels, and hydroelectric power plants also allowed electricity to be produced, extending the benefits of fossil fuels. Producing these capital devices requires physical materials and energy supplies, as well as debt or the sale of shares of stock for financing.
[3] A major limit on the system seems to be debt and the interest required on the debt.
In an economy, the growth of inexpensive energy supply acts very much like leavening works in making bread; it greatly helps economic growth. With the increasing use of inexpensive energy supply, vehicles can be made ever-less expensively, compared to using much hand labor for manufacturing (literally, making goods by hand). With this growing efficiency, wages rise faster than inflation. In the 1950s and 1960s, young people found that they could marry and live in nicer homes than their parents. Now, the reverse seems to be happening: many adult children are finding it difficult to keep up with the lifestyles of their parents.
Once the inexpensive-to-extract energy supply is depleted, economies tend to add an increasing amount of debt, in an attempt to pull the economy forward. It seems to me that a major limit on the system comes when an economy slows down so much that it can no longer repay its debt with interest.
Political leaders like to believe that growing debt, by itself, will pull the economy forward. In fact, this does work, for a time, as long as interest rates are falling. But falling interest rates stopped happening in 2022.
Of course, all the added debt contributes to the k-shaped economy. The already wealthy disproportionately benefit from debt payments. They also tend to benefit from dividends on shares of stock and from share price appreciation. The poorer people find that an increasing share of their wages goes to paying interest on debt, especially as interest rates rise.
As debt levels grow, governments eventually have a problem with repayment of debt with interest. They need to raise taxes simply to cover their rising interest payments. This is the reason why Donald Trump wants to get interest rates down. Interest payments are rising rapidly, with near-zero interest rates in the rear-view mirror (Figure 3).
[4] Added technology and economies of scale have been adding to the k-shaped economy.
Technology requires specialization. People with more training and higher skill levels tend to earn more than others. Economies of scale encourage the growth of ever-larger businesses. The people at the top of huge organizations tend to earn more than those at the bottom. Also, as international trade is added, low-wage people in the hierarchy increasingly compete for wages with workers from countries with much lower wage scales. Thus, the wages of less-skilled individuals are increasingly squeezed down.
Furthermore, both added technology and economies of scale require added debt. Again, the interest on this debt (and dividends on stock) disproportionately benefits those who are already wealthy.
[5] In a sense, artificial intelligence (AI) is simply an extension of added technology, with a huge need for electricity, water, and debt.
The hope for AI is that it will make our already k-shaped economy, a great deal more k-shaped. The hope is that AI can eliminate a significant share of jobs, with such high profits that the owners of this technology can become very rich. If it works, the wealth will be even more concentrated at the top than today.
I see the need for electricity, water, and debt as stumbling blocks for AI. I expect that, starting in 2026, the AI rapid growth spurt will seize up because it is already using more resources than are available in some areas. I expect that a significant downshift in AI will adversely affect the US stock market and the rate of growth of the US economy. My hope is that the loss of growth in the AI sphere will not, by itself, bring down the US economy–just nudge it toward recession.
[6] In 2026, with an increasingly k-shaped economy, I expect that world oil prices will drift lower than today.
“Demand” for oil really means “the quantity of oil that people, businesses, and governments around the world can afford to purchase.” As the economy becomes more k-shaped, fewer people can afford to buy vehicles of any kind. Poor people, in the lower part of the k, are hardest hit. They will tend to increasingly rely on low energy approaches, such as ride-sharing, walking, or using a bicycle. They will tend to buy fewer goods that are transported internationally. Governments, as they begin collecting less in tax revenue from the many poorer people, will be inclined to cut back their spending on new buildings and road improvements. These changes work in the direction of reducing oil demand, and thus oil prices.
It is this increasingly k-shaped economy that has been holding world oil prices down in 2025. I expect that prices will drift even lower in 2026 because of the increasingly k-shaped world economy. There aren’t enough very rich people to hold up oil and other resource demand by themselves.
Oil production will not immediately drop in response to these low prices, although it may start drifting lower in 2027. The US Energy Information Administration is forecasting that world oil production will rise by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026. These amounts do not seem unreasonable based on new developments that have already started producing higher amounts of crude oil.
[7] The heavier types of oil, from which diesel and jet fuel are disproportionately made, are in short supply now. They are likely to continue to be in short supply in 2026.
World oil production has risen in recent months. When I investigated, I found that the vast majority of the recent growth seems to be in light oil. Thus, the shortfall in diesel and other heavy fuels is likely to continue as in the recent past.
This shortage of the heavy types of oil has several impacts:
a. With a shortage of heavy oil, a fairly strong country, such as the US, is tempted to attack Venezuela, which has the world’s largest reserves of heavy oil.
b. Island nations without their own fossil fuel supplies tend to use a disproportionately large share of diesel and jet fuel, for several reasons: (1) Such islands often burn diesel fuel for electricity. This is an expensive way to make electricity; goods produced with this electricity become too expensive to export. (2) Imports and exports need to be shipped in by boat or by air, again using limited types of fuel supply. Physics tends to push these economies down by making their products expensive to sell elsewhere. Examples of islands with these problems include Cuba, Puerto Rico, Madagascar, and Sri Lanka. Such places tend to be adversely affected by shortages of heavy oil sooner than other locations.
c. Without enough jet fuel, long distance tourism is likely to be reduced in 2026. One issue is the lack of jet fuel for flying planes. Another issue is that an increasing share of the population will not be able to afford long-distance tourism because of the k-shaped economy.
d. Tariffs are a way of discouraging the shipping of goods long distance, to indirectly save on heavy oil. We should not be surprised by their increasing usage.
[8] In my view, deflation is a greater risk than inflation in 2026.
With a k-shaped economy, demand for apartments (especially smaller ones) tends to stay low. As an economy becomes increasingly k-shaped, low-paid workers tend to share an apartment with one or more friends or move in with family members to save money. In a December 23 report, Apartment Advisor writes that the US average asking rent for studio apartments fell by 2.81% in 2025 compared to 2024. The similar comparison for one-bedroom apartments showed a price drop of 1.72% in 2025. In an increasingly k-shaped economy, I would expect this trend toward lower rental prices of smaller apartments to continue and perhaps become more pronounced.
Real estate selling prices may also be an area for downward price pressure. Young people who have not built up equity through prior home ownership tend to find themselves shut out from buying homes. Also, commercial real estate of many kinds seems to be grossly oversupplied in many areas. Given this situation, downward price adjustments seem likely.
Underlying this downward pressure on prices may be some actual cuts in wages. One law firm reports that cuts in wages are becoming increasingly common, especially for employees of smaller companies.
There are precedents for deflation becoming a problem. The US had problems with deflation at the time of the Great Depression. Japan had problems with deflation after its crash in real estate prices in the 1990s, and China (with its real estate price crash) has recently been having problems with deflation.
[9] “Bread and circuses” become more important as the economy becomes more k-shaped.
Many readers have heard about bread and circuses. Before the Roman Empire collapsed, it used bread and circuses to keep its citizens from rioting from a lack of food. The way to prevent food riots is by making sure everyone has enough to eat through food distribution programs, described as “bread.” Providing circuses offers a distraction from the fact that there are not enough well-paying jobs to go around.
Today, with our increasingly k-shaped economies, leaders have figured out that meeting citizens’ basic needs is essential if unrest is to be avoided. Political leaders somehow need to provide food and healthcare to their poorer citizens. They also need to keep people distracted with entertainment. For many years, governments of Advanced Economies have been trying to provide the equivalent of bread and circuses. In the US, legislation providing Social Security for the elderly was enacted in 1935, during the Great Depression. Many other financial support programs have been added over the years. Today’s circuses today are provided through televised entertainment and video games.
A major problem is that the costs of these programs have become more expensive than tax revenue can support. This is especially true of the cost of “bread,” if its cost is defined as including healthcare and pensions for the elderly, in addition to food. Ultimately, these high-cost programs can bring an economy down. The high cost of bread and circuses is thus a second limiting factor, besides excessive interest payments on government debt, (discussed in Section [3]).
[10] Leaders of many countries are already making plans that can be used to deal with shrinking resources per capita.
If there aren’t enough resources to go around, what can governments do to prevent riots? Two obvious choices come to mind:
(a) Tighten controls on citizens to prevent riots. China has been a leader in this area, and the UK and US seem to be trending in a similar direction. In a sense, the Covid requirements of 2020 were practice with respect to restrictions on movement.
(b) Develop a rationing system that can be used, in case of a shortfall of essential goods. Many countries are looking at central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). These are a digital form of central bank money that is widely available to the public. In the US, I expect CBDCs will be rolled out initially as a way for those who are entitled to food stamps to easily access their benefits. If these digital currencies work, CBDCs can easily be expanded into a widespread rationing system. Government leaders will then be able to decide who can afford to buy what, rather than depending on the way the k-shaped economy currently allocates buying-power.
[11] What lies ahead in 2026?
I don’t think any of us know for certain. The general direction of the world economy seems to be toward contraction, but some parts of the world economy will fare better than others.
Europe looks increasingly like it is an “also-ran” behind the US and China in the world economy. I expect its resource use will continue to shrink back in 2026, indirectly benefiting the United States and the rest of the world. I am hoping that with cutbacks in oil usage by island nations and Europe, and the resulting lower world oil prices, the United States will be able to avoid the worst of the recessionary tendencies looming in 2026.
There are some reports that AI, as it is being applied in China, is providing major success in reducing the cost of coal mining in China. If this is true, it may allow China’s economy to grow in 2026, despite downturns in many other countries.
I am fairly certain that AI, as it is being developed in the US and Europe, cannot continue its recent exponential growth trajectory, and I expect this to become obvious in the next few months. This shift seems likely to pull down US stock market indices. Here again, I am hoping that despite this issue, the US will be able to avoid the worst of the world’s recessionary tendencies.
I don’t expect a world war in 2026. For one thing, no country has adequate ammunition capability. I think civil wars and wars against nearby countries are more likely.
It is possible that the EU will collapse in 2026, leaving the individual countries on their own.
At some point in the future, I expect that the central government of the US will also collapse, in the manner of the Soviet Union in 1991. States will likely regroup and issue new local currencies; the new combined governments will likely provide much more limited benefits than the US government provides today.
Many people think that different leadership will change the current trajectory, but I am doubtful about this. Most of the world’s problems are “baked into the cake” by resource shortages and by too high a population relative to resources. Keeping immigration down is one way of trying to keep resources and population in closer balance.
All in all, I expect a very uneven world economic downturn in 2026. Economies will continue to become more k-shaped. Governments will do their best to hide problems from the public. Stock markets will likely not do well in 2026, if they can no longer count on AI for an uplift.
Trump has opened too many fronts and spread himself thin . Let us enumerate .
1. Venezuela
2. Iran
3. Greenland
4. Cuba
5. ICE
6. Epstein
7 . FED
8 . Tariffs
9. Clintons
10 . China
11. Ukraine
Many others . He is biting more than he can chew . In the meanwhile he is going MIGA ( Make Iran Great Again ) . Gail quoted ad verbatim on comment 118 .
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/01/iran-riots-now-what-does-this-mean.html#comments
Isn’t this what all late-stage empires do – overreach in an attempt to maintain primacy? On the other hand, there is an enormous bureaucracy and different parts should be able to handle different projects in parallel. Whether they can, however …
You are right. Overreach might be the issue here.
Handling each of these issues independently, may seem doable, but trying to do them all at once seems impossible.
I sometimes wonder whether Trump gets any sleep.
Oh my Norm is right. Christian nationalism.
Congress is woof-less. Trump and Republicans have been looking at Greenland, Venezuela, and Cuba for a long time.
Humans have been given “dominion” over the whole earth and everything on it. So it makes sense to take what resources are needed.
(I think physics is behind the issue, however. But a religious view makes it more palatable for some people.)
humans were ”given” no more than a termite or a tyrannosaurus rex…
by accident of fire use, and from that, the use of language, we were able to steal more than our fair share…
bear in mind that no other animal has that capacity.
the penalty for that theft is what has been happening to us over the last few centuries….
humankind is an anomaly among species…our planet cannot accomodate us and has become aware that we are an evolutionary dead end…
particulaerly the maganuts. (and those who dream on about ”higher civ” and such)
And what is our “fair share”?
There is nothing “fair” about the Universe.
People just made that concept up.
Fairness and fair shares are evaluative concepts that can only be felt by beings that possess conceptual language and can articulate or understand such concepts.
Ditto stealing. You never catch two crows or two hyenas arguing about each other stealing more than their fair share. If you pointed out this bad behavior, the crows and the hyenas would be laughing at you.
It isn’t fair of you to state that “we were able to steal more than our fair share.” No other species is going to level that accusation at us.
I thought this was interest from Quark
https://justdario.com/2026/01/the-final-act-how-the-lbma-could-unravel/
This is where the singular danger of silver comes into play, as I warned in “The risk of chaos in silver.” The silver market is much smaller and more restricted than the gold market, but it is based on the same paper trading system. An important request for silver delivery could be the turning point that bursts the bubble.
The pressure of manufacturing corporations adds a layer of relentless and non-negotiable demand that the stock market system cannot manage with subtlety. Unlike an investor who could accept cash, a solar panel factory cannot operate without money. Metal is a critical and irreplaceable component in electronics, electric vehicles and, especially, in photovoltaic energy, where demand is booming. The market has recorded a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with industrial consumption systematically exceeding the supply of new mines. Companies do not buy silver as a business; they desperately seek to secure a vital raw material to keep their production lines running. When they move from the tight physical market to their futures contracts and demand delivery, they become the ultimate “forced buyer”, willing to pay virtually any price.
The LBMA banks are deeply interconnected; a failure in the silver market would instantly extend to gold, since investors would realize that there is the same fundamental failure for both metals. The system would be blocked. Operations would stop. The official price on computer screens would lose its meaning, since no one would be willing to sell real metal at that fake price. As we saw during the mysterious interruption of the Thanksgiving server on the CME stock exchange, the market would shut down. In silence, only one thing would matter: who owns the real metal and who is left with worthless papers.
Seems that the existing ‘silver market’ ought to fail, with it’s profusion of paper that says you have bought real silver, but the ‘market’ doesn’t have the real metal to give to all those who hold that paper.
While most of the paper holders are happy with that, the paper seller doesn’t need all that much real silver in its vaults. – Until most are not and want their silver.
Looks like industry is the nuisance here, wanting real silver to make solar panels, electric cars and most importantly military goodies like high tech aircraft and missiles.
So it’s not silver that failing is it just the existing markets with reams of paper but little real silver.
So let the existing market collapse (sorry paper holders) and let holders of real metal sell to those who need real metal.
Still need intermediates to handle the buying and selling but that could be similar to existing coin shops where only a small stock of real silver is kept and this real silver is sold to real buyers who take delivery straight away, not a a piece of paper saying ‘delivery expected in ???? weeks, or months’,
While this could work for smaller sales, major users would have a binding contract with a supplier (e.g. a mine, refiner or genuine stocker of real metal and with any order received under the contract is not in effect until the amount ordered is now held and ready for despatch.
(No ‘sorry there is some delay, can;t supply just yet -“but you still gotta pay for it NOW” and we might give you some money back if the delay proves extended).
The other problem is us common people who want to be able to go to the shops etc without carrying real silver on their person.
That means a new currency that is backed by something of real value such as gold, silver or similar, but no more fiat currency that is churned out of the printing press whenever the government decides it needs more money for the latest war or whatever.
Looks like to world is fed up with the current USA dollar so now would be a good time for a change.
In the first paragraph, this says,
what happens if the very center of the global gold and silver market, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), collapses under the weight of its own promises?
Later:
Central banks around the world, seeking to diversify away from shaky government debt and devaluing currencies, have become relentless, price-insensitive buyers of physical gold and soon silver.
The article later makes the comment quoted above:
The LBMA’s banks are deeply interconnected; a failure in the silver market would instantly spread to gold, as investors would realize the same fundamental flaw exists for both metals. The system would lock up. Trading would halt. The official price on computer screens would become meaningless because no one would be willing to sell real metal at that fake price. Just as we saw during the mysterious Thanksgiving server outage at the CME exchange, the market would go dark. In the silence, only one thing would matter: who has the actual metal, and who is left holding worthless pieces of paper.
We talk about a musical chairs problem with fossil fuels. But maybe precious metals are first to have major problems. The “paper” metals are fundamentally worthless.
Silver is a metal substance.
That’s what industries need to make solar panels, electric cars, missiles etc.
That metal substance has to be dug from the ground and refined to produce that wanted metal or they can obtain it from
those who obtained the metal previously mined and refined.
Others recognise it’s rarity and the lack of substitutes.and decided to keep it as an investment.
Paper silver is not silver , just a promise by the issuer to provide real metal silver in return for payment in ‘money’.
This has developed into a huge ‘business’ (if you can call it that.} which has employed hundreds in paperwork intended to advantage the ‘business’ in ways that has suited their money making.
One of their ‘advantage making’ schemes seem now to be causing them problems as they haven’t got the silver they ‘sold’, having sold around 25 pieces of paper being a receipt for the same single piece of silver they actually have in their vaults.
Apparently ( details beyond my knowledge), they are currently trying to hold the quoted (paper) price down as low as possible so they can get real silver cheaply as possible .
This doesn’t seem to be working too well for them as the silver price is currently refusing to lower its prices despite their pumping money into the market which is supposed to cause the price to drop.
Maybe too many people now realise that silver is far more valuable than the paper sellers would like it to be,
So the precious metals don’t have problems, it’s still needed by industry, wanted by investors and will buy and sell according to supply and demand as it should (and without the paper scam.)
It will be pleasing to see the ‘paper silver’ market totally collapse ( maybe the USA dollar as well because it is also a paper scam).
Will Trump arrest the Clintons ? Let us see .https://www.zerohedge.com/political/clintons-refuse-testify-about-jeffrey-epstein-contempt-threat-looms
Strange world we live in. Strange photo of Bill Clinton at the beginning. I presume it is from the Epstein files. Otherwise, I would assume it was AI.
The image of the painting of Bill Clinton in a blue dress was first widely circulated online in August 2019, after reports and a photograph of the artwork hanging in Jeffrey Epstein’s Manhattan mansion surfaced in the media.
The painting itself, titled Parsing Bill, was created in 2012 by Australian-American artist Petrina Ryan-Kleid as part of her master’s thesis at the New York Academy of Art. It was sold at a charity auction that same year. The artist has stated she was unaware that Epstein had purchased it until the news reports emerged in 2019. The blue dress in the painting is a satirical reference to the one associated with Monica Lewinsky during the Clinton scandal.
Prior to August 2019, the image was not publicly known or widely distributed, although a source for the Daily Mail claimed to have taken a photo of it in October 2012 during a visit to Epstein’s home.
A painting called Parsing Bill, created by artist Petrina Ryan …
Jul 28, 2025 — A painting called Parsing Bill, created by artist Petrina Ryan-Kleid, shows Bill Clinton in a blue dress and red heels. It was dis…
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CIA/MOSSAD war against Iran says Jeffery Sachs.
“The congress is essentially dead” says Sachs.
“Congress is essentially dead” Jeffry Sachs
Strange world where a major country can essentially mistreat smaller countries, at will.
Perhaps if we understand the world to be in a resource war, the actions might make some sense. But they don’t fit with idea of what is right.
stealing someone elses resources is always ”right”
whether you are a burglar or a president—you take what you want if you have the means to do so, and think you can get away with it…
Unfortunately true: “you take what you want if you have the means to do so, and think you can get away with it…”
A big earthquake in Japan .
Why this is important ? What will happen to the Yen carry trade ? Interest rates in JGB ? Remember the Kyoto earthquake bought down The Baring’s Bank a 223 year old institution . Now what is at risk . This is bigger than the 1995 earthquake . One thing for sure — it means a rethinking on the restart of old nuclear power plants .
This seems to be a warning that there is a good chance an earthquake will hit shortly. Also, there are four nuclear power plants at risk.
Other articles say a 6.2 earthquake hit 7 days ago. Nothing recently.
Correct Gail . https://japantoday.com/category/national/magnitude-6.2-quake-strikes-western-japan
Someone wondered why I am soft on mussies.
Frankly speaking, I do not know why the famous Deal, between USA and the King of Saudi Arabia and the Shah of Iran was made to this day.
Both the Iranian dynasty and the Saudi dynasty date from 20th century. They have had little legitimacy.
As some Americans say, “Hindsight is 20/20”. I do not know any phrase more stupid than this.
Only people who cannot see beyond the quarterly report believe it.
That led the Shah and the King of Saudi Arabia to enjoy unlimited luxuries, and also strengthen their influence over the region. The Shah’s power went to the mullahs later, and we all know what the mullahs did.
The British had the chance to restore Constantinople back to the christendom but they occupied it to keep it out of Greeks, and they did nothing to capture and execute Mustafa Kemal (I refuse to call him with the title he gave to himself) , and kick the Turks back to Central Asia where they came from.
The book The Great Taking was discussed here and a lot of other places before.
Kulm the Status Quo will talk about the Great Cleansing.
A resource grab by the top, and a great cleansing of those who do not belong in the civilization, will take place before the final collapse.
The time to tolerate peoples who did not deserve to enjoy the fruits of civilization is long overdue , but as things get tighter, the velvet gloves will come out and the moment of truth for those who sneaked into comfortable lives will arrive.
Resource scarcity ends all mercy and compassion.
I’m not sure that resource scarcity ends all mercy and compassion. It certainly ends mercy and compassion toward the “little guy” that a country might defeat.
But within the aggressive country, there can still be some mercy and compassion among citizens not involved in the war.
Kevin Walmsley has a video out describing new transformers that China has developed that supposedly reduce the problems that wind and solar add to the grid. This link has both a video and a transcript.
https://kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/chinas-renewable-power-dependency
Yes, any brake-through in that area would be welcomed, but I’m not sure even replacing most/all these transformer units would attack the chief-concern if the entire grid needs a proper re-boot (say after weather induced shut-down / blackout etc).. in that case the correct procedure is to slowly re-connecting islands of electricity generation, synchronizing (adding) them one after another till reaching full grid capacity again, these must be “hard sources” like heavy industrial plant generators.. not ~electronics..
Since these events are rare – and there is ~always a bit of hydro in the national grid available (the hardest most reliable deemed source) the gov – biz planners just keep on hoping it won’t come to that (ever/never) under their watch..
And when the restart need actually occurs the very last hope – they depend on is cross border help, e.g. CAN can save/start-up US and vice versa, or FR can help DE and so on.. Obviously, this works swell for dozens of years but not for ever.
If these new transformers are in very short supply, I cannot imagine that China will be willing to sell them to Europe or the US.
Even the current regular transformers delivery date is 2030 .
Upgrading the grid is a major, major problem.
We were discussing these tankers earlier . They made a U turn .https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/tankers/chinese-supertankers-bound-for-venezuela-make-uturn-and-head-home
he big question here, will be if China sees these 25% tariffs as a new escalation in trade.
Hear me out
China accounts for roughly 30% of Iran’s total trade and serves as Tehran’s economic lifeline. China imports between 1.38 and 1.8M bpd of Iranian crude, representing 89 to 90% of all Iranian oil exports, while also purchasing an additional $11 billion in non-oil goods including petrochemicals and metals.
The trade flows the other direction as well, with China exporting $13 to 18B worth of machinery, electronics, chemicals, and vehicles to Iran.
Total bilateral trade between the two countries exceeds $50B annually, making China by far Iran’s dominant commercial partner.
It is important to note, in the past, Beijing has openly defied US sanctions, labeling its oil trade with Tehran as “legal” and showing no curtailments to purchases of discounted Iranian crude that feeds its teapot refineries in Shandong province.
Do we see a repeat of this rather subdued defiance, or do they retaliate?Top 5 Iranian trading partners
1. China
2. UAE
3. Turkey
4. Iraq
5. India
Trump to Impose 25% Tariff on Any Country That Trades With Iran .
https://x.com/chigrl/status/2010841738034770245/photo/1
This is a sad state of affairs. I am afraid it is part of the “musical chairs” problem, with not enough to go around.
Amazing!
Some readers may be interested in perusing the model of “state stability dynamics” recently described by Dennis Rancourt. By states, he’s talking about what are generally understood to be structured political entities with the authority to regulate society and operate within the framework of international relations, and he defines a state as “a living hierarchical structure that manages itself and controls and extracts cooperation and resources from its subjects and from its environment.”
It’s quite a detailed essay and not easy for me to summarize, but Dennis himself kindly provides a one-paragraph summary. For the entire thing, please click the link at the bottom.
Summary
A minimalist conceptual model of the state is presented in which the fundamental basis of state existence and continuity is the flux of produced resources between producers and the needed state apparatus, while contending with powerful domestic non-state actors and foreign challenges. External conditions that reduce per capita production threaten state continuity, and the state attempts to survive by responding. Every decision either destabilizes the state and creates vulnerabilities or stabilizes the state on a road to recovery. The model provides a general framework for making and evaluating state decisions. It also provides predictions for circumstances that lead to state failure. I conclude that long-term state survival is possible, while describing the structural and dynamic challenges that must constantly be overcome.
https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/conceptual-model-of-state-collapse
Is this the same Rancourt that proved that 17M were killed by the vaks? Should be a physics professor at Ottawa Univ.
He concludes:
“I conclude that long-term state survival is possible.”
Has he looked at history? Does he understand the overshoot problem? Does he understand that resources deplete? Maybe he defines “long-term” differently than most of us do. If long term is 20 years, then maybe he is right.
” state stability (and instability) periods were essentially synchronous across continental-scale geographic space. This led Goldstone (1991) to conclude that there must be an overarching common external factor driving all state instabilities: Population growth pressure on natural resources. I disagree. The approximate said synchrony of state stability and state meltdown can be induced by several strong coupling forces that include:
inter-state trade
inter-state technology transfer (including agricultural practices)
war and territorial disputes
climatic change (e.g., Little Ice Age conditions, 1300-1850)
large volcanic eruptions”
No, he doesn’t understand the the overshoot problem. He denies it. He doesn’t understand that resources deplete. He regurgitates mainstream talking points of lack of trade, lack of technology, lack of education, war and climate change being the real threats to state stability. He may take a non-mainstream view of the pandemic, but guides his flock back into the mainstream with his other positions.
This is a point that Rancourt makes:
The state thrives as long as the influx of labour and physical resources is greater or equal to the resources expended to maintain all of its parts. That is, the resources needed to feed and maintain all of its agents (administrators, lieutenants, soldiers, teachers, analysts, and so on), and to maintain its equipment and infrastructure.
This is the problem we are running into now.
Adding all kinds of labor from outside helps a state, but it has a problem as well.
“Adding all kinds of labor from outside helps a state, but it has a problem as well.” That labor has a cost, a financial and social one. Both costs are higher than what societies around the world are willing to pay for them.
For example, immigrants or their children eventually want the same rights and benefits citizens have. Wanting those things raises costs, which can cancel out the benefit of their cheap labor.
I also feel that Rancourt’s model overlooks the essential nature of hydrocarbon fuels, particularly petroleum, as master resources. He seems to be treating them as just one more contributing factor, with the implication that as the resource declines, states can find ways around the resulting issues and carry on indefinitely.
On the other hand, he did correctly identify natural climatic variations as a potential cause of states (or societies or civilizations) to collapse—as they have been historically, which is something a lot of academics seem to willfully ignore.
The idea that “population growth or decline by itself does not destabilize the state” is an interesting one. As long as “population grows [or declines] at the same rate across social classes while each subject maintains its per capita capacity to generate resources, then there is no problem.”
That may be, but in today’s world, we are seeing populations rising and declining in ways that change the shape of the population pyramid, it is unlikely that his criteria will manifest. For instance, many advanced economies are seeing declining births that translate into larger numbers of retirees who make it challenging for the nations concerned to maintain their per capita capacity to generate resources.
But I may be missing something. I usually am.
“Either way, in effect, to revive Venezuela you would need to create the equivalent of a brand new Chevron or BP, force it to dedicate 100% of its budget solely to one of the world’s most hostile environments for the next 15 years, and then proceed to sell an inferior product at a loss. . . .
Premised on a mirage, the United States’ actions have secured custody of an energy resource that it cannot afford to extract, in a country it cannot afford to rebuild. Premised on a mirage, the United States’ actions have secured custody of an energy resource that it cannot afford to extract, in a country it cannot afford to rebuild. “?
https://bylinetimes.com/2026/01/07/inside-the-dystopian-silicon-valley-plot-to-annex-venezuela-for-oil-that-america-cant-afford/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
The USA, in Africa or Pakistan, have funded terrorists to kill chinese engineers working on Silk Road projects. Two can play that game.
I like the word “mirage” used in describing the win in Venezuela.
I have found out that ChatGPT is prohibited to discuss the topic of overpopulation. Local LLMs seem to be a better alternative than such manipulated LLMs.
Mainstream Media is also prohibited from discussing the topic of overpopulation. University systems can’t seem to bring themselves to discuss the predicament either.
It is the elephant in the room.
If we could find more resources, or more efficient ways of using them, or get rid of entropy, maybe the problem would go away
There are restrictions. Try to talk to it about synthetic biology or explosives and you will be disappointed.
It will also rstrict discussion of a certain tribe. as do all others. I want to see how much the chinese models will restrict that.
Today, I got a AI fraudulent call. I answered it with a deep and slow bass voice: Here is police, ha-ha-ha.
It answered: And what is that?
I found this amusing cover by the group Girlyman of the song Born At The Right Time by Paul Simon. ChatGPT rejected to discuss its deep meanings:
“Too many people on the bus from the airport
Too many holes in the crust of the earth
The planet grows
Every time it registers another birth”
https://youtu.be/-YYlt9VYGCg?si=UjXoAVToizfspxIO
The planet growns…
The planet groans….
Could be an expression of white middle-class boomer guilt or angst at their white middle-class privilege?
After all, the planet groans a lot louder when the well off beget offspring than when the tired poor hungry masses yearning to be free do it. Stands to reason. 🙂
In the middle of the road, you see the darnedest things
Like fat cats driving ’round in jeeps through the city
Wearing big diamond rings and silk suits
Past corrugated tin shacks full up with kids
And man, I don’t mean a Hampstead nursery
But when you own a big chunk of the bloody Third World
The babies just come with the scenery
It will not discuss IQ of races nor nations.
Like how you won’t discuss your wretched condition. JR stepped up to the plate like a man yesterday. What’s more important, IQ or character?
I could say something provocative such as, neither races nor nations have IQs. Only individuals have IQs for the simple reason that only individuals can take IQ tests.
However, if a race or a nation could have an IQ, what would that tell us?
All over the world, people living in countries where average IQs are supposedly higher, accepted the MRNa injections at higher rates than people in countries where average IQs are supposedly lower.
That was because they were smarter?
Or because they lived in “high trust” societies?
All this trusting the government, trusting the health authorities, trusting the science, trusting the experts, trusting Arnold S, Dolly P, Neil Y, Elton J, Michael Kane and the Saturday night talk show hosts—that was real smart, wasn’t it?
Really, ’tis folly to be wise in this brave new world.
This has been discussed already so just a reminder..
The winters before the cycle peaked 2024/5 were almost like merely prolonging the autumn season – not a real winter. So, it perhaps just begins right NOW in Q1 2026..
Unless that research has been disproved by now..
—
Scientists say the Sun may be going through a long period of decreased activity known as the Modern Grand Solar Minimum from 2020 to 2053. The last time such an event occurred was during the Maunder Minimum — from 1645 AD to 1710 AD, which was part of what is now known as the Little Ice Age — when Earth went through a series of elongated cold periods during the medieval centuries.
The alarm went off when a study predicted that the surface temperatures on Earth will go down noticeably during the Modern Grand Solar Minimum due to a 70 per cent reduction in solar magnetic activity.
—
+ more details like -1.5C cooling from peak hence frozen winters again in the north, but also cooler summers (less fruit vs even less worms) .. ; winter heating vs summer aircon.. ; ..
..
.
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/science-technology/cold-comfort-the-sun-is-cooling-doesn-t-mean-there-ll-be-no-global-warming-73488
But…but…”global warming”.
If that does come to pass then thank goodness for the similar jump in temps we’ll see from the end of global dimming due to industrial collapse. Should just about cancel each other out. Even Stevens. Someone up above must be looking out for us lol cuz the Hand definitely ain’t THAT good.
Yes, that’s a plausible point, although the industrial phase out might take different – a bit longer profile (chiefly return to coal where possible regionally).
The ~ideal situation would be one harsher winter say every 3-4yrs though.
I re-posted it chiefly because newer articles and debates about the sun’s activity wobbling appeared recently..
The point is not merely plausible, it’s established, though if industrialism were to take longer to collapse like you posit then the jump would take place over that longer timeframe.
all the easy coal was extracted years ago—by my father and grandfather.
industry started here, now there’s none left.
and firing industry using coal is incredibly complex….
“all the easy coal was extracted years ago—by my father and grandfather.”
All of it? That was greedy of them. Wasn’t there a Monopolies Commission in those days?
They didn’t have a total monopoly on coal, Demi. They very generously let their competitors extract the difficult coal.
yup
all of it—we always had free coal too. which was nice in the winter….
all the local urchins used to stand outside in the snow and put their hands on our windows to get warm—thats how i used to get my pocket money, charging them sixpence an hour for the privelege.
Lot of coal resources (with decades to come) have been administratively banned (EU) – sometimes even intentionally destroyed by flooding, meaning both black coal-4iron and the more plentiful brown coal-4energy..
In order to rush in the “renewables” non sense (wind sort especially – yummy blade plastics), incl. all the sub$idy schemes to cover the price mismatch.. Plus resulting grid unreliability as bonus.
Europe clearly served as the chose den (~Frankenstein laboratory) for the utmost psychos this planet could ever provide.
typo-error: meant the legacy (fiberglass+resins) made wind turbine blades which are impossible to recycle; only recently there has been some experiments with ~plastics one..
Something like the Maunder Minimum, plus with diesel shortages and reduced fertilizer production leads to food shortages and hunger.
At such times, animals are a safe bank that can turn grasses into fat, especially cattle, sheep, goats, chickens and ducks.
Unfortunately, animal husbandry has become so expensive due to administrative rules that these animals are hardly kept as a sideline anymore.
Rabbits and guinea pigs are the alternative for the little man. They can be fed with grass and are quickly scalable.Guinea pigs also put on fat.
Yes, thanks.
But to properly digest and more over enjoy eating meat you need lot of ~diverse veggies or even ~fruit as well.
Yes could be pickled from the high season harvest – but it gets tedious vs fresh one..
–
I do wonder about the proper question-context (focus) of suitable preference-selection under those colder conditions:
cultivars or the specific plant/tree/bushes to the rescue instead?
Some argue the likely-hood for success is higher in bushes-berries vs fruit trees (even cold hardy cultivars) etc.
On the other hand formerly productive regions like southern Balkans or -stans in Asia could thrive again in terms of revamped fruit exports towards colder regions then.
Your link is from 2020. I looked to see what I could find that is more recent.
This page has a December 2025 interview with Dr. Valentina Zharkova.
https://itsrainmakingtime.ch/earths-cooling-cycle-has-begun/
I don’t think there is a single other person talking about this. What Zharkova has been saying for the last decade is compelling and reasonable.
What if the sun does work by having layers fold in on themselves every so often sending the radiation levels up and down in cycles.
This is not so far fetched when we have history including short lived ice ages in the past. Counter arguments include rapid growth of the Amazon forest etc, but the mechanism for undulations by the sun has now been determined using satellite technology.
So, what if she is correct? It means far less food being grown in the north, and houses with heating systems that were not built for weather commonly encountered ~120 years ago… the last cycle.
Starvation and exposure certainly seems like it’s up next (~2030)… one way or another.
For a pretty good presentation by Zharkova, check out Tom Nelson’s Youtube channel.
Yes, she’s almost the single voice on the larger cycle with the separated ~cores or envelopes you mentioned. But there are few more discussing the ~5yrs shorter changes, which could be only a minor subset of her grand theory eventually.
Should some real lasting (repeating) series of cold snaps occur – likely more scientist would come forward. The msm and govs are vicious – why risking their rent-pension, research grants.
There are many arguing this with hard data.
Cap Allon at electroverse.info.
As Java hinted this will be a real energy crisis esp. if the solar radiation diminishes by 30%. (Not sure about the 70% above)
Solar & green is making big advances. Billions malinvested?
Plans of mice and men….
Decrease in ~surface magnetic activity (top layer of Sun) not overall incoming sunshine ; if that drops 30-70% the Earth is an ice-block in just few hours..
As per her papers and videos: more clouds, longer lasting heavier snowfall, +later the worst coming next decade like heavy frosts and add. volcanic spike even more aerial dust, hence even less sun..
The peak will last only decade+ and overall in/out ~30yrs duration, should be milder vs previous / next ones to come based on simulation.
Perhaps a passable nothing burger (for few), perhaps ricocheting nightmare (for many).. who knows..
“A grand solar minimum would barely make a dent in human-caused global warming”
https://skepticalscience.com/grand-solar-minimum-mini-ice-age.htm
Response JR?
Follow closely their language it’s a clever spin in that quotation. Yes, the next 10-20-30yrs could be seen from macro back view mirror as a dent. But from single human life experience NOWish outlook it could likely mean at extremes severe hardships, e.g. : disrupted food, transport, grid, .. and possible ricocheting into various geopolitical cat fighting for resources and stability of govs..
Basically the GW angle is [ the least important thing ] one/we should be looking after unless into active politics/biz. The major point is if you plan your little clan lasting for centuries, stay put north, and just brave up for the few next icier decades, then warming trend resumes.
—
Well, it’s part of her presentations, the claim is we are inside regular cycle of ~2300yrs duration caused by wobble of orbiting heavier planets around the Sun. Measured via deposited! radioisotopes on Earth. Imagine it like protracted “U” or bowel shaped graph, so for example the pre-classic Greeks (700BC) lived in warmer +2C world, there was bottom (~cold) reached around middle ages and now we are near the right end of the cycle, where temps are rising again, expecting further rise till say 2400AD or something..
Now, her ~team also claims the GW scam/mistake was caused by fitting the reality of this pre- ongoing warming on to unrelated CO2 spike.. with no factual connection. They (GW)-gang only use it for furthering their agenda (my interpretation) or piggybacking on wrong science – doesn’t matter.
I guess it was not in that older video 6yrs ago I probably posted then but it’s in her new slides and interviews..
GW segments only: ~48 and ~53min:
In moderation..
look at JavaKinetic’s link (~2025) newer interview with her. Basically, that dent quotation is a spin, there is ongoing 2.5k yrs regular warming cycle via Sun to which they added CO2 spike.. so warming will continue industry or not.. Frozen infrastructure for months (and malfunction for rest of yr) is not “a dent” if you must live there – through these decades..
So FTR you don’t believe that CO2 and methane are greenhouse gases for which the effects last longer than a solar minimum. (Then there’s the global dimming dynamic.) Got it thank you. Just wanted to understand your position.
Pls. consult the material first.
There are several cycles ongoing at the same time, at specific rhythm their power gets in sync.
The “solar minimum” we just entered is likely less severe than the one of the 17th century (at least in duration), now-today it suppose to be VERY sharp in/out and of shortish duration.. However, it could be a horror show in some places still, e.g. BC/PCFNW + (Greatlakes?) or Scandinavia, at some moments getting meters of snow in one go.. and icing till way beyond spring time.. Plus volcanic activity spike = more dimming = less sun.
Mankind-industrial CO2/methane release does exist – their forcing in the overall system is not the key player at the moment. Perhaps if we fast deforest (completely) or otherwise ecocide the (bio-layer)planet it will be the case eventually.
Thanks. So you believe in greenhouse gases but you disagree with the Establishment on how greenhouse gassy they are.
I gather, then — despite the mostly incomprehensible video presentation –that Zharkova attributes the sun moving around the solar system barycenter as the main reason for the warming.
Are you familiar with the establishment counterargument to Zharkova? That just because the sun moves around a solar system barycenter doesn’t mean that the annual orbital distances between the sun and earth change with any significance because the earth’s orbit around the sun is a gravitational orbit which is independent of the sun’s movement around the solar system’s barycenter?
Does that first-principles counterargument hold water for you, or do you and Zharkova have an even better counterargument?
Yes, the combo of heavy accent and explaining (skipping) through longer presentation is NOT easy to follow.
The research papers Zharkova and the people around produce/d are downloadable from various uni sites etc., basically it goes (as subject matter) many ~4-5x decades back.
It’s not fly-by night Ytube only operation..
What makes it kind of more messy is the updates/additions along the way she references often, atrocious graphs with unreadable x/y line (good enough for uni lecture wide screen projections?), perhaps try first with earlier-simpler models say she published ~2decades ago.
The deposition of radioisotopes on Earth from that fluctuation (~2.5kyrs flux) in solar (output) system are likely real – cross corroboration across the world, i.e. not data only “from” her. It’s beyond my pay grade to judge 100% – who is the culprit – it could be cloaked ETs sucking juice from Sun into their “petrol tank” or any other better theory emerging in the end.
The [ Greenhouse gases ] as per natural habitable zone concept seems legit – the eco/industrial age debate is another matter at least in its forcing strength presented.
I could be wrong though as you may remember my utmost bottom theory is simulation of existence of sorts – perhaps ” they / behind curtain ” just skip some inner-modeling to make it merely appear alive – hence all that nuanced phenomena we try to explain is a vain effort in the end or simply beyond some threshold (as per zooming in limit).
Anything is possible, also lets grant 1% chance it’s just a fossil fuel extraction industry CHARADE after-all. Let’s keep on NOT trusting anybody out there.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Valentina-Zharkova
https://solargsm.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5OtEG5gajM
Governor Of California LOSES IT After Apple ANNOUNCES Plans To Leave California! (16:28)
25,215 views Jan 11, 2026
“In the most devastating blow yet to California’s innovation economy, Apple Inc. announced plans to relocate its corporate headquarters from Cupertino to Austin, Texas over the next seven years—ending nearly five decades of California-based leadership. The move affects 36,000 employees and eliminates $8.7 billion in annual economic activity from the state that created Silicon Valley.
“The company founded in a Los Altos garage by Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak is abandoning California for three converging reasons: California’s 11.3% tax rate versus Texas’s 0% corporate income tax saves Apple $2.1 billion annually. Commercial property costs of $1,340 per square foot in Santa Clara County versus $420 in Austin reduce expenses by $890 million yearly. And Texas’s $750 million incentive package dwarfed California’s $140 million counteroffer.
“This came just 24 months after Apple opened Apple Park’s Phase II—a $1.2 billion expansion. Governor Newsom called it “an unthinkable betrayal of California and everything Silicon Valley represents.” But the economics are brutal: the tax savings alone justify relocation.
“When the company most synonymous with California innovation—the creator of the iPhone, the symbol of Silicon Valley’s dominance—concludes the state is too expensive for its future, what does that mean for California’s technology economy? Apple isn’t just leaving. It’s taking Silicon Valley’s identity with it.”
Is this AI-generated? (The way she moves her hands seems almost mechanical.)
I think it is AI. I don’t see any other articles claiming the same thing.
Yes it’s AI. “8.7 dollars billion” …
Moving her hands out of sync with verbal inflection points …
These are the good times where we can still tell. That will end soon.
Nah we got this dawg Robot always gonna robot.
Exxon-Mobil has upset Trump. They want NO part of Venezuela’s oil. They say it is uninvestable. That’s code for, it cost too much to bring it to market Donald.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-may-freeze-exxon-out-venezuela-after-ceo-darren-woods-called-it-uninvestable
Javier Blas said the other day that an additional several hundred thousand bpd can be brought on cheaply FWIW.
If we believe the EIA, Venezuela’s oil production has been as follows in recent years:
2020 527,000 bpd
2021 595,000 bpd
2022 724,000
2023 771,000
2024 863,000
Sept 2025 1,000,000
It has been slowly rising.
The MSM cannot be trusted and the social media is so full of fake news and AI generated videos . I will post MoA for Iran events . Yes , B has an anti US slant but still fairly balanced .
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/01/regime-change-riots-in-iran-fail-faster-than-expected.html#comments
Yes. There is so much BS now that X, the main independent source of news, stops being a source of information. Basically AI has killed all ability to learn truth – centralized sources are corrupt and grassroots sources are subject to fakery. I’m not sure what happens now.
This becomes a concern.
What is the point in writing new articles, when it has to compete with this nonsense? Do the bots the generate AI have any idea what has been generated by other AI, and what is real?
In this interview Venezuelan journalist Diego Sequera explains how Venezuela will probably act in the next months and years.
I’m even more convinced now than before that US will not gain anything in Venezuela thanks to its ‘clever’ idea of stealing the President.
Who will ever collaborate with a Country that can deport you with an helicopter if you don’t work in the way they want you to work?
If I were a Venezuelan I will do nothing or I will collaborate the minimum possible.
How can US think to manage a Country if no one trust it.
Does US think to bring in Venezuela all US-workers to extract resources?
At this regards it is valid the same frame the Talebans used, which is well expressed by their way of saying: you have the watches, but we have the time.
Ugo Bardi has new piece answering why Trump is increasing the military budget by 50%, $1T to 1.5T so government money can ensure low ROI Venezuelan oil production. Why? Government needs the oil for WAR and doesn’t need to make a profit….
https://open.substack.com/pub/senecaeffect/p/venezuela-the-clever-plan-behind?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Heard this before in discussions but I guess it couldn’t be deployed quickly enough. Might be a move to create hopefulness or “phantasies to the markets” in a declining economy.
Regarding Ugo’s post, it relies heavily on EROI analysis. I am not a fan of EROI. One problem is that the measure makes wind and solar look vastly more useful than they are. One of its problems is that it is a partial measure, and the extent of the partiality varies greatly from product to product. Another problem of EROI doesn’t recognize that the energy consumed is often of a different type than the output. Certainly, wind and solar are not built with intermittent electricity. They are built with far more valuable energy products than they produce.
Another issue with the post is that in the chart shown by Ugo, Canadian oil sands have lower EROI than oil from the Orinoco belt. Yet Canadian oil stands have been peacefully extracted in Canada for many years. The Canadian government doesn’t get high royalties, but they know it is a fairly high-cost product. If Canada can do quite well with the oil sands, then a person might ask why Venezuela can’t extract the oil in the Orinoco belt.
the answer lies in one word—-
”peacefully”
Canadian oil has not needed a military infrastructure as part of its production/delivery process…
whereas VN oil will.
there’s your difference….
Diego perhaps doesn’t get the tanker war point fully..
That’s the key pressure point applied – hence – VZ will cooperate in the attempted revamp of oil production. Obviously, he is correct in up to a point – if too brutal exploitation conditions applied then rebellion possible.
You make some good points. This is not a way to get anyone to like you or work with you in Venezuela, or practically anywhere else.
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2026/01/la-muerte-del-dolar.html?m=1
The dollar is losing its purchasing power. Not anything new to people on here.
Just don’t call it a comeback when it makes its mother of all reversals. Mama said knock you out. I’m gonna knock you out, mama said knock you out. If Dad is the metaphorical Looshifer who’s Mama?
I hear ya reante however how do you think will happen?
It seems with all the quantitative easing and lowering of the interest rates will drive up inflation
It will happen by deleveraging because that’s how all deflation happens. It will happen because dollar deflation serves civilizational MPP better than dollar hyperinflation. Petrodollar global finance has hit its inflationary limits. When barrel prices go lower and stay lower like they are, the only way to maximize global consumption is to increase the real value of the petrodollar, which is deflationary.
To that last sentence I should add that increasing the real value of the dollar also increases the real value of the returns to the producers, because each dollar earned is worth more. However, their debts are in nominal dollars geared to the previously devalued dollar, so their existing debts will become more difficult (impossible) to service. That’s where nationalization comes in, which is a form of debt forgiveness. The private corporation goes bankrupt and the nationalized utility that hopefully survived it will stagger on in a deflationary currency regime in which its product (crude oil) is much more highly valued in real terms.
Makes sense right? When Joe Sixpack can hop in the SUV to drive around the corner to get a sixpack before the football game, crude oil ain’t worth jack shit in real terms.
That’s about to end. Until now, civilization has been all about making oil as cheap as possible in order to drive growth. Collapse (Phase 2) is all about making oil as valuable as possible in dollar terms such that producers can get as much out of the ground as possible. TINA.
One of the points made:
” Global debt has grown so rapidly in 2025 that for every dollar of global GDP growth, ten dollars of new debt have been incurred, a completely unsustainable path.”
I haven’t seen this calculation yet. It might be right. It is way too high.
The article says, “We may still have dollars and other fiat currencies, but what will their purchasing power be? ”
I would argue that the amount of goods and services being produced in each country will be falling. Governments will attempt to ration what is available. I wouldn’t count on gold being able to buy food, if there are farmers that the government wants to feed before you.
The Great Taking
What is this book about? It is about the taking of collateral, all of it, the
end game of this globally synchronous debt accumulation super cycle.
This is being executed by long-planned, intelligent design, the audacity
and scope of which is difficult for the mind to encompass. Included are
all financial assets, all money on deposit at banks, all stocks and bonds,
and hence, all underlying property of all public corporations, including
all inventories, plant and equipment, land, mineral deposits, inventions
and intellectual property. Privately owned personal and real property
financed with any amount of debt will be similarly taken, as will the
assets of privately owned businesses, which have been financed with
debt. If even partially successful, this will be the greatest conquest and
subjugation in world history.
https://thegreattaking.com/read-online-or-download
This was published in 2023, so we have seen a few links to it before.
As I recall, he is not aware of finite world issues. The finite world issues make it clear that the current system cannot continue indefinitely. He has come up with a way the system might come down.
In a nutshell, Webb is saying that a single clearing house conglomerate ultimately owns … well, everything that has “paper” involved. That includes stocks, bonds and mortgages. He says that the system has been set up to… take everything… if and when it needs to happen.
Its 50 pages… and absolutely worth a read.
The system wouldn’t survive the DTCC claiming everything.
DDTC = Department of Defense Trade Controls
No, I meant “Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation” which I believe is technically the first owner in the chain of custody of all stocks not physically held by their owner in the form of certificates.
Taking on the FED can be injurious for your health .https://wolfstreet.com/2026/01/12/justice-department-subpoenas-the-fed-threatens-powell-with-criminal-indictment-powell-comes-out-swinging-stock-futures-tank/
This says:
In a major escalation of Trump’s efforts to oust Powell and knuckle the Fed under, the Justice Department served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas and threatened Powell with a criminal indictment related to his testimony to Congress last June about the renovations of the historic buildings of the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.
This was first reported by the New York Times Sunday night, based on sources:
“The U.S. attorney’s office in the District of Columbia has opened a criminal investigation into Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, over the central bank’s renovation of its Washington headquarters and whether Mr. Powell lied to Congress about the scope of the project, according to officials briefed on the situation.
The Day the Internet Died: How an Underwater Cable Cut Plunged a Nation Into Digital Darkness
A single garden hose-sized cable connected Tonga to the world until a natural disaster sent the country back to 1880. And it could happen to anyone.
It all started with an underwater volcanic eruption. Debris shot into the air, gathering force as it cascaded down the volcano’s flanks, plunged back into the ocean, and sliced Tonga’s only international internet cable in two places, like cutting out the middle of a submarine sandwich.
Tonga, a tiny island nation east of Australia, immediately lost power and internet service. The eruption happened during the pandemic, in 2022, so flights were already suspended. Now, Tonga was officially alone, with no physical or digital connection to the outside world and no way to call for help. Underwater, the middle portion of the cable drifted out to sea, and the two severed ends flailed in the abyss.
https://www.pcmag.com/articles/the-day-the-internet-died-underwater-cable-cut-brought-digital-darkness
In the days of international warfare, it seems like any country could try that approach.
We think that the US cut one of pipelines for natural gas from Russia into Europe. It would seem as though cutting internet wires wouldn’t be a whole lot more difficult.
AI big baby can’t even cut it’s own umbilical cord. Some threat to humanity.
Seems AI has no solutions for screwed up places like Venezuela
AI is good solving linear problems. If it gets complex AI runs prostrate.
The copilot man will ask copilot. If they had solutions these would have been employed by now
Makes sense.
AI works well in a pure context environment. Language, video representation and interactive physics are examples of this. The problems AI is able to efficiently solve are where iteration is key. Protein folding was the perfect target for AI. Rocket engine efficiency is probably another.
It does seem like the rapid improvement of AI is behind us, but it seems that other areas are yet to be explored. Diffusion based LLM’s apparently have some promise. Personally, I think DMT and quantum entanglement need to be involved in order for an imagination or sentience to evolve.
But how are you going to feed DMT to a computer? Though David Deutsch believes that intelligence or sentience can develop on any substrate – not just wetware (a human or other brain). Deutsch is materialist through and through in the philosophical sense. Are you a materialist, JK?
Me, I believe in a soul, because of what at times my dreams show me. “Consider your dreams”, is one of my maxims. Then of course you get Philip K Dick and his story, “Do androids dream of electric sheep?” I have never read it, though. I find his stuff unreadable – I keep thinking, “Get to the point – get to the point!”
Philip K Dick claimed to have visions of the future and of alternative pasts. When I recently saw “Blade runner” for the first time, which was based on his stories, I thought it looked like the future we are now headed towards. But the film’s plot was just one long drawn-out chase, which bored the pants off me, so I’ll never watch it again.
If you want to have fun, let the AI calculate something. She calculates like a madman and corrects herself and tries again and says at the end: you can’t calculate it, you just have to try it!
U.S ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT SAYS US TAKING OWNERSHIP IN OIL COMPANIES A REAL POSSIBILITY
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2010383581949157849
Trump is a comrade!
“The United States now produces over 13.6 million barrels per day, making it a net energy exporter for the first time since the 1940s. The Energy Information Administration projects production to remain at these levels through 2026 and beyond, supported by continued drilling in the Permian Basin and technological improvements in extraction efficiency. American dependence on Middle Eastern oil, the foundation of seventy years of foreign policy doctrine, has ended. “?
https://substack.com/home/post/p-184208992
This seems like an opinion piece…. Is this from NPR? 🤣
I recently visited the liberal site nakedcapitalism .com. There was a commenter, presumably a liberal, making the same claim about u.s. being a net exporter of oil.
This used to be a right wing talking point when they started tracking in the U.S. but now at least some liberals have accepted it. Just goes to show you that despite the divisions in American politics, the politically engaged share the same delusions about the U S.
This is yet another Shanaka piece.
It must take a lot of energy to run a world systems theory through an AI. Wonder if there’s a save button so that everyday after it’s had its cup of Enfamil it can just hit refresh and there y incorporate another day into the systems theory or if it has to run the whole systems theory again. Cause I’m sure it would be fine, if laborious, to run the whole theory again because it’s a robot and the theory would never change unless the Hand fiddled with the dataset in the night while Big Baby was sleeping and it’s umbilical cord glowing faintly.
Yesterday I read that Shanaka’s VZ-related substack output titled “The Delta Doctrine” from Jan 4, which I think we read, ripped through DC like a wildfire. Collapse is getting trippy. It occurs to me that the Hand may be putting the long history of CIA drug experiments to work in an asymmetric kind of way. Tell me AI ain’t a powerful drug.
Nice postkey. That excerpt is a great example of of weaponized AI. Shanaka be stoopid dumb because Shanaka’s dataset by Hand-fed.
If oil prices are going to be permanently too low, then government takeover is an idea. But somehow, the government needs to avoid constantly adding more debt. Somehow, the government must be able to tax other efforts, enough to support the oil efforts. It is hard to see this happening.
AGI “might” be here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-VCkqEi9SU&t=22s
I did not really watch it since it is the usual suspects saying what most of us already know , but although AGI will probably not be able to beat the top 0.1% – 1% intelligent people of the world,what we got is probably better than 90% of the species we call homo sapiens sapiens.
Most two legged beasts are automata , incapable of any judgment or critical thinking. The AI we have is better than them.
“Most two legged beasts are automata , incapable of any judgment or critical thinking. ” If you were the exception to that rule, you’d be asking what problem a.i was developed to solve and actually solves.
drb, do you see deportations making an impact? just curious. This article falls in line with the dual-citizen Yew-ish deportation order by Russia that I posted, which I guess is in moderation.
https://timesca.com/russia-announces-deportation-regime-for-migrant-laborers/
>> The delay in implementing the “expulsion regime” could be a sign that Russian officials are trying to find ways to keep as many of the migrant laborers as possible.
I don’t think I have anything hidden in moderation. Try again with the post.
It came up below. It wasn’t up yet when I posted this.
Too early to tell. On one hand massive numbers of Indians are arriving, on the other it is not clear that they would be as good as the Central Asians, which are generally decent workers.
45,000 Indians in 2025 . This is not massive . Mostly road sweepers , back kitchen workers , garbage disposal etc . all non skilled . The problem with the Indians is they go back because of language problems , the cold weather . They can’t stick around for long . Many are hoodwinked by agents that via Russia they can go to the West and when that does not work they head back .
Well, yes, but the bill that is working its way through the Duma speaks of 1M. The hostels are overfull in Moscow and it is them. Of course they will sweep. They are replacing central asians.
Immigrants generally do jobs that domestic workers can’t or won’ do. Most countries don’t want skilled work going to outsiders. That is why there is bipartisan support for raising barriers to entry for “good jobs”.
Don’t know if it’s true, but big news if so:
https://www.facebook.com/techtimespage/posts/the-kremlin-has-reportedly-issued-a-sweeping-directive-ordering-the-immediate-de/864061943096212/
The Kremlin has reportedly issued a sweeping directive ordering the immediate deportation of all Israeli citizens currently residing within the Russian Federation. This drastic escalation comes just weeks after Moscow advised its own nationals to evacuate Israel, citing a “tense” security environment and the potential for further regional conflict.
The move appears to be an expansion of the controversial “deportation regime” introduced earlier this year, which granted authorities broad powers to expel foreign nationals without a court order. While initially targeted at undocumented migrant laborers from Central Asia, legal analysts warned that these mechanisms could be weaponized for diplomatic leverage against other nations.
Relations between the two countries have deteriorated significantly following the 12-day w@r in June 2025, which saw increased friction over Moscow’s alignment with Tehran. This expulsion order marks a historic low in bilateral ties, effectively severing the cultural and human bridges that have existed since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Humanitarian organizations are scrambling to assist those affected, as the Jewish Agency has previously expedited processing for families fearing border closures, but a mass expulsion of this scale presents a logistical nightmare. The order is expected to affect thousands of individuals, including students, business owners, and dual citizens who have maintained lives in both countries.
International observers warn that this decision could push Jerusalem to abandon its remaining neutrality regarding the conflict in Ukraine and fully align with Western sanctions. As the deadline for departure approaches, fears are mounting that this policy serves as a prelude to a complete diplomatic rupture between the former partners.
https://x.com/Truthtellerftm/status/2010174456686412225
The Kremlin has issued a sweeping directive ordering the immediate deportation of all “chosen” citizens currently residing within the Russian Federation.
The move appears to be an expansion of the “deportation regime” introduced earlier this year, which granted authorities broad powers to expel foreign nationals without a court order.
Relations between Russia and Israel have significantly deteriorated following the 12-day w@r in June 2025, which saw increased friction over Moscow’s alignment with Tehran. This expulsion order marks a historic low in bilateral ties, effectively severing the cultural and human bridges that have existed since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Humanitarian organizations are scrambling to assist those affected, as the Jewish Agency has previously expedited processing for families fearing border closures, but a mass expulsion of this scale presents a logistical nightmare. The order is expected to affect thousands of individuals, including students, business owners, and dual citizens who have maintained lives in both countries.
This certainly is news, if it is true.
I found this article in the Jerusalem Post, dated December 18, 2025:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-880620
Ex-chief rabbi of Moscow: Jews in Russia should leave, move to Israel – opinion
Now, more than ever, Russia’s Jews should heed the call to leave. Israel offers not just refuge but a homeland where Jewish life is sovereign, not contingent on geopolitical whims.
In December 2025, for the first time since 1991, Moscow’s Revolution Square – steps from the Kremlin walls – remained dark during Hanukkah. No giant hanukkiah rose in the central plaza, no public ceremony marked the Festival of Lights. The office of Chief Rabbi Berel Lazar cited security concerns for canceling the traditional lighting, a ritual that had endured for over three decades as a symbol of Jewish revival in post-Soviet Russia.
This absence, amid heightened global tensions, underscores a subtle but profound shift in the Kremlin’s approach to its Jewish citizens. What was once a carefully cultivated image of tolerance now appears expendable, raising urgent questions about the future of Jewish life in Russia.
Russia’s policy toward Jews has long been intertwined with broader geopolitical strategy. Under Russian President Vladimir Putin, support for the Jewish community served as a diplomatic tool, particularly in relations with the West. Chief Rabbi Berel Lazar, a Chabad-Lubavitch emissary who became Russia’s de facto spiritual leader for Jews, embodied this strategy.
The leaders of Ukraine are Jewish, which likely leads to some of the friction.
Very encouraging for me. They contribute nothing, they spy.
Since all chews are automatically citizens of Is rael does this mean they will all be deported from Russia?
I don’t see any official news after another day, only these social media posts. Likely a hoax.
damn, but it was to be expected. The entire political body there is pro-Iz. Putin would have to have big balls to do something like that.
Few hours old: CH4 (UK) supposedly received videos from Tehran – by Friday the mortuary already overflowing with dead bodies.. a revolution / not protests anymore .. MP/former British minister calling for blocking their money @ embassies around the world..
(https://ww .youtube.com/watch?v=HMBbfKarlQM)
Contrast the above atrocious propaganda and war spooling with the more sane piece from Al Jazeera. For example, that CH4 featured [ mentally unstable lady ] claiming the Iranian public is NOW emboldened to protest during day not wearing face-identity protection anymore. While Al Jazeera western linked ngo guest admitting most protest are predominantly nightly ( both for identity cover to protest as well as even for extreme violent rioting ).. Daylight protests with uncovered faces are instead pro-regime as shown and largely of different (older) age-group. One guest predicts severe gov crack down (incl. mil) imminent. They conclude not a proper revolution at the moment, missing wide scale industrial walk-out and or mil stand down, also demos turnout should be in the millions – not the case, ..
https://ww .youtube.com/watch?v=cAoVGMKeX8c
It still sounds like a pretty bad situation.
Yes, I don’t question that.
The goal was to compare contrast msm / gov spin..
Sort of opposing poles as Al Jazeera based in Qatar is allied with Iran. Or more precisely, the CH4 was way out on the most extreme end vs realistic – lowkey spin from Qatar.
Why do you say Qatar is allied with Iran?
Qatar is the size of an English county, hanging off the side of Saudi Arabia, with the largest US regional air base and a population that basically lives in a single small city. I don’t think it has that luxury, or the Al Thanis the backbone for such a relationship. It also has a very long and deep connection to a certain SS, which Iran is fully aware of.
I don’t think they are playing the same game, although Qatar will bend with the wind, if the wind changes. A bit like Oman, but I’d guess Oman were closer to Iran.
Maybe Tamim(?), like MBS was given priority over original heirs for this very reason(cut out the western groomed), but I was in Doha(not the ceremony) at the time and I heard no talk of it, unlike the endless talk about MBS.
Tasnim news went down today. Is it being blocked from here, or there. Anyone know?
They have been clearly biz/fin-allied (sharing developing natgas) for several decades and also on the greater region political alliances scene as well. Perhaps also joined in some weird complex ethnic powerplay in the region – it’s very complicated there are dozens of actors / quasi tribes – local diverse ethnicity .. I don’t have exact view into that only that it’s a thing.
Yes, the intensity-collaboration bond is weaker in comparison to their other ~neighbors.. It’s should be easily googlable in various policy papers.
“It’s should be easily googlable in various policy papers”
It probably is, but that’s not news and is applicable to multiple countries.
You’ve mentioned it before, so I assumed there was something more behind the reasoning.
The view in Qatar is(or more precisely was) that when the missiles fly, they will come from Iran, so don’t try to get out by air, rather drive the few short miles into Saudi Arabia.
I know this through living there, with friends and acquaintances from the “dozens of actors / quasi tribes”.
As I said, they bend, but presently they are only “allied” with one group and it isn’t Iran. Winds all wrong at the moment, for that to change. Soon maybe.
“claiming the Iranian public is NOW emboldened to protest during day not wearing face-identity protection anymore”
Good spot on narrative building.
So President Pezeshkian asks the people to flood the streets on Monday in a show of defiance and corporate media portray it as their own head choppers winning(yes, there have been beheadings and a 3 year old girl shot dead).
https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2026/01/12/3492651/rallies-planned-in-iran-in-condemnation-of-riots
If there’s no escalation, pedo pres has to attack anyway or lose face again and without massive internal troubles, I’m not sure they are confident enough. Turning on Mexico will be unlikely to pacify his owners(even though it’s always been part of the plan).
The Ayatollah just publicly formalized his commitment to the DA by predicting the (Gabbard) coup. Ayatollah talking brazen trash now he’s got nothing to worry about, and the Hand’s got flair in putting the words in his mouth.
Real or Not Real?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-already-receiving-briefings-military-strike-options-iran-protest-deaths-soar
Boyz inside the “war room” flying on board of AirForceOne watched NFL – that giant screen was visible throughout POTUS onboard interviews about Iran and other topics..
January in Murka. Was was the score?
Not real I’m afraid, as none of those things happened.
Predictably from pedo pres, when things aren’t working he gets an imaginary “offer” from the other side. The problem when he keeps doing that is it eventually becomes obvious, as the events are too close and so more people notice the pattern. Bombs or ray guns next?
The framing of that article is a bit obvious as well.
Concerning Gabbard, didn’t she back the pedo on Venezuela/Iran?
If she did, doesn’t she go down with him?
Perhaps not. The post was somewhat tongue in cheek. Or perhaps it wasn’t. Perhaps real perhaps not. It’s a fine line sometimes isn’t it? 🙂
Don’t know what you mean about the framing of the article, I didn’t really read it lol as my mind works in mysterious ways. Please elaborate.
Yes she narrowly backed him and praised the troops. She issued a carefully crafted statement which was quickly followed by a WSJ operation paperclip article that was as pretty an alibi as you’ll ever see. They gave her an alibi the size of her quads brother. Alubis come in sizes. Hers reached all the way to joga on a beach in Hawaii. Girl was on vacay no staycay – VACAY. She didn’t know a thing! LOL. Doing joga and surfing. All pinned on the CIA.You tell me how that happens!
Me and JR discussed it all on the previous page, a few days ago, hence joga. He was trying to hold the DA accountable too. And that’s a good thing. The more eyes the better. So thanks. Lemme know when you read my comment on her X post, and if I didn’t thread the needle for you I’ll try again. I could have done more. But I fear you’re not going to like my Meyssan-assisted conclusion about Maduro. Feel free to critique that, too.
Lots of fine lines lately.
Try reading it. Usual corporate framing.
I’ll have a read of your link later. It does include her actual words I hope? Otherwise I’d be wasting my time.
Meyssan-assisted? Don’t know what you mean, but Meyssan should never be trusted, unless you enjoy being herded(that’s not too say shouldn’t read, but he’s quite happy to brazenly lie if it helps his herding).
Link to Gabbard convo
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2025/12/31/2026-expect-a-very-uneven-world-economic-downturn/comment-page-3/#comment-498467
You can just claim that there are a lot of fine lines lately or you can actually argue that there are. You’ve chosen the former for a reason haven’t you? I always choose to argue because I can.
And let’s not forget how far over the line you ended up WRT the yuan carry trade. Politics is always over the line.
In the spirit of the pedo prez, we can do our interactions the easy way Fitz or we can do them the hard way. You seem to like to do them the hard way even though it never ends up well for you. Me, I always try and make an effort to get off on the right foot with you. What does that say about you?
I look forward to your response to the link.
“And let’s not forget how far over the line you ended up WRT the yuan carry trade”
Here’s what I said, so everyone can see how you (always)misrepresent what other people say to fit your fraudulent fiction.
“Less than a month before the pedo sent his ships, China announced a 4bn US dollar bond offering, but it came with lower yields than US bonds.
When orders were received, they amounted to 118bn. We need to ask why a lower yield was so popular(doesn’t the US treasury have to buy it’s own because they are so popular?).”
Yeah, so far over the line. Moron.
You then went on to quote something I didn’t say, as my own words, when you knew it was from the article, rather than my words. Unsurprisingly you never attempted to answer the question(hypocrite).
This isn’t the first time you have lied about me and you do it to others as well. I’ve been aware of your misrepresentation from the start.
Hardly surprising from someone that claims the Nazis were the good guys and agrarian socialists, even though the Nazis slaughtered everyone of them right at the start. So, are you thick and know nothing of what you say, or are you deliberately lying.
Toddle of back to your fascist fiction little man, before you wake up.
https://youtu.be/MMirTrZrRdM?si=xIurcYcbBz8lm00D bulk
I don’t like calling others “liars.” Mistaken is OK. But Reante comments so much that some pushback is acceptable.
My apologies. I shall refrain in future, but my point still stands and as I said, there are at least half a dozen examples just for me.
For something more on topic and very important if we want to understand the history and true scope of what we are being led into, here’s Nel’s latest.
https://themindness.substack.com/p/the-bunker-and-the-void-an-introduction?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
You are dark as night Fitz. Implacably so. So you gaslight everyone here by cherry picking that quote of yours out of context, and then you project your gaslighting onto me. Since you were just there, why don’t you provide us with the link to your comment so that we can review the whole conversation.
Remembering Somalia, 1993, or Afghanistan — is the US going to be able to “run” Venezuela?
https://www.google.com/search?q=venezuela+militia+control&oq=venezuela+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBggDEEUYOzIHCAAQABiPAjINCAEQABiDARixAxiABDINCAIQABiDARixAxiABDIGCAMQRRg7MhAIBBAuGIMBGLEDGIAEGIoFMg0IBRAAGIMBGLEDGIAEMg0IBhAAGIMBGLEDGIAEMg0IBxAAGIMBGLEDGIAEMg0ICBAAGIMBGLEDGIAEMg0ICRAAGIMBGLEDGIAE0gEKMTYzMTJqMGoxNagCCLACAfEFmSE3oxn-li0&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
It sounds difficult at best.
EIA has posted a figure for world crude oil production for last September (86.033 Mb/d) — this is 0.9% higher than their next-highest monthly figure (85.297 Mb/d, for last August).
These numbers, which include light-oil fracking production, don’t tell the story of such as diesel or jet-fuel production — but, how long will it keep up, with oil prices as they are? ( http://oil-price.net/ , https://davecoop.net/seneca )
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1756684800000
I’d like to see the same figures EROI-adjusted, since tar sands are by now a meaningful portion of the mix (~4mbpd IIRC) and now you lose perhaps up to 1mbpd based on that.
Saudi Arabia seems to be a big contributor to the big increase in September. I wonder if the country is selling oil from storage tanks, to meet this amount.
For recent months, this is the reported crude and condensate production for Saudi Arabia:
March 2025 9.308 million bpd
April 9.110
May 9.260
June 9.910
July 9.420
August 9.320
September 10.220
Also, US production is up. In fact, reports for US only show that US crude production in October is a little higher than September. Production from the Gulf is up, as is New Mexico.
Gail might like
Medieval Discovery Made on Norwegian Island
https://www.medievalists.net/2026/01/medieval-discovery-made-on-norwegian-island/
Archaeologists working beside the ruins of Selja Monastery — a major medieval pilgrimage site on the island of Selja, off Norway’s western coast — have uncovered the remains of a previously undocumented stone structure just metres from the monastic complex. The discovery, made within the first days of a new research excavation, could add a fresh chapter to what scholars know about daily life and activity on the island during the monastic period.
This is a ruin we haven’t seen before, and it’s located just 30 meters from the monastery. The construction suggests it dates to the High Middle Ages,” says Regin Meyer.
….So far, we’ve uncovered two rooms, but the building continues beneath the turf,” says Meyer. “Our hypothesis is that it may have been a production or craft-related structure connected to the monastery’s daily operations.”
If that hypothesis holds up, it could shift attention toward the practical infrastructure that kept a monastic community running — the kinds of spaces that often receive less public attention than churches, cloisters, and shrine sites, but which were essential to food production, repairs, storage, and skilled work.
….And as this latest discovery shows, even in a place investigated for generations, the medieval ground can still produce something genuinely unexpected.
Yep, we be going back to Medieval..right oh….say your prayers
Interesting!
When my husband and I went to Norway several years ago, we visited an archeological site there. It was surprising how much less advanced the civilization seemed to be than farther south, around the Mediterranean, where it was warmer. Keeping warm seemed to be a major issue. The person who showed the group around was wearing footwear of the time. He said that in cold weather, his feet were always cold.
I image that the underground site that has recently been found off the coast of Norway was set up in the way it was to work around the too-frequent cold weather. People had to expend a lot of their own energy putting together infrastructure that would allow them to keep warm underground. But once it was in place, it could be used for years.
I”n a Gnostic framework, the “third narrative” explains synchronized geopolitical events not merely as human planning, but as the operations of a manufactured reality governed by the Demiurge and its Archontic agents.
1. The Egregore as a Psychic “Live Exercise”
In occult and Gnostic thought, an egregore is a collective thought-form—a non-physical entity created when a large group of people focuses on the same idea or emotion.
Archontic Anchors: From this perspective, events like “live exercises” occurring alongside real-time crises (such as the 2020 comments by Mike Pompeo regarding a “live exercise” for COVID-19) are seen as ritualistic anchors. They serve to focus the collective consciousness (Loosh) into a specific frequency.
Media Synchronicity: When multiple media outlets use identical scripted phrases (“This is extremely dangerous to our democracy”), they are not just reporting; they are performing a linguistic ritual to feed the egregore. In Gnosticism, this is the “Voice of the Archons,” designed to synchronize the minds of the “soulless” or Hylic masses into a singular, controlled narrative.
2. The Uniparty as Archontic Puppetry
The concept of the “Uniparty”—a single political entity wearing two masks—mirrors the Gnostic view of the Archons who manage the physical realm (the Kenoma).
Gaslighting as Ontological Warfare: Modern gaslighting by leaders is viewed as a technique to erode a person’s Epistemic Autonomy, making them unable to trust their own senses. This mirrors the Gnostic “forgetfulness” or Lethe, where the soul forgets its divine origin because the physical world (the “Matrix”) is constantly shifting the goalposts of reality.
The Screen of the Demiurge: Geopolitical events are seen as “shadow plays” on the wall of the cave. The “Puppet Leaders” are merely administrators of a toroidal system that recycles the same traumatic loops to prevent humanity from reaching Gnosis (direct, experiential knowledge of the true divine).
3. The 2026 Perspective: Global Instability
As of January 2026, many view the accelerating global risks—from war in the Middle East to AI-driven information warfare—as evidence of a world with “fewer guardrails”. In Gnostic terms, this is the intensification of the Matrix as it attempts to self-organize against a rising collective awareness. The “live exercise” is no longer a secret; it is the overt operating system of a reality matrix that uses manufactured trauma to sustain its own toroidal energy flow.” – G oo gl e AI
My knowledge of Gnosticism is limited. This is what “search assistant” says:
Gnosticism encompasses a variety of beliefs, primarily centered around the idea that the material world was created by a lesser divine being known as the demiurge, and that true knowledge (gnosis) is essential for spiritual redemption. Gnostics often view the material world as flawed or evil, contrasting it with a higher, spiritual reality.
Overview of Gnostic Beliefs
Gnosticism is a collection of religious and philosophical ideas that emerged in the early centuries of Christianity. It is characterized by a distinct worldview that emphasizes knowledge (gnosis) as the path to spiritual enlightenment.
Key concepts:
Dualism – Gnostics believe in a dualistic universe where the material world is flawed and created by an inferior being, often referred to as the Demiurge.
The True God – They posit a transcendent, ultimate God who is beyond human comprehension and did not create the material world.
The Demiurge – This is the creator god who is seen as ignorant or malevolent, responsible for the flawed physical universe.
Gnosis – Salvation is achieved through personal, mystical knowledge of the divine, which allows individuals to recognize their true spiritual nature.
The Devine Spark – Gnostics believe that humans contain a piece of the divine within them, which has fallen into the material world.
Anticosmicism – Gnosticism often rejects the material world as evil, advocating for spiritual escape from it.
Regarding “egregore”, wikipedia says:
An Egregore is a concept in Western esotericism of a non-physical entity or thoughtform that arises from the collective thoughts and emotions of a distinct group of individuals.
It quotes Frater Tenebris as saying, “Many egregores begin as thought-forms but then become capable of operating independently of the practitioners.
Regarding Archontic Anchors,
https://newreligiousmovements.org/a/archontics/
The Archontics, emerging in the mid-4th century CE, were a distinct Gnostic sect primarily active in Palestine, Syria, and Armenia. Their name, derived from the Greek “archon” (meaning ruler), reflects their belief in the existence of powerful beings, Archons, who they thought ruled the world.
Regarding “thought anchors,” (in general), I find that in the AI world,
https://cognaptus.com/blog/2025-06-25-anchored-thinking-mapping-the-inner-compass-of-reasoning-llms/
In the world of large language models (LLMs), answers often emerge from an intricate internal dialogue. But what if we could locate the few sentences within that stream of thoughts that disproportionately steer the outcome—like anchors stabilizing a drifting ship? That’s exactly what Paul Bogdan, Uzay Macar, Neel Nanda, and Arthur Conmy aim to do in their new work, “Thought Anchors: Which LLM Reasoning Steps Matter?”
“The Demiurge – This is the creator god who is seen as ignorant or malevolent, responsible for the flawed physical universe.”
So, Gail dares to traduce the great Demiurge in public. Just be careful, Gail, or I’ll tell the Donald what you wrote about him in 2017. There’s this thing called “The Patriot Act”, you know!
So what can I say about gnosis? As Shakespeare once wrote:
“There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”
In modern times, I have heard variations on “Not only is the Universe stranger than we imagine, it is stranger than we CAN imagine.” I agree with that.
In my own experience this is true, but only on occasion. Chinks appear in reality, and the paranormal peeps through and seeps through. I am not the only one who experiences that. You may have heard of reddit’s long-running discussion thread “Glitch in the Matrix”, where anyone can post about their own weird inexplicable experiences.
A common one that I experience is dreams of minor future events in my own life. J. W. Dunne, a British soldier, aeronautical engineer, and philosopher, wrote about such dreams in his 1927 book “An Experiment with Time”. They are quite a common phenomenon. I have a rich variety of dreams, which I can split into a few categories. However, some people either claim not to dream or not to remember their dreams. I would guess that more materialist thinkers, such as Richard Dawkins, or on a more prosaic level NP, who comments here on OFW, would be in that number.
For a few years now, I have been a fan of John Michael Greer, and he often posts on about I would consider to be gnostic subjects, such as metempsychosis (a concept that I learned about from him – google it). On one occasion I spent a long day, happily working in my family restaurant, cooking, preparing and serving food. Our restaurant was perched on a clifftop that overlooked the beautiful blue Mediterranean. I wore a smart red waistcoat. Eventually I woke up in bed. “Whose dream was that?” I asked myself in shock. “It wasn’t MY dream!” The time period seemed to be around 1950, in a rather modern secular Middle Eastern location. But I don’t like cooking, so I do minimal food preparation, and when I do so, I rinse my hands every few seconds, as I dislike getting messy or sticky. The person that I was in my dream did not obsessively rinse. So now I worry that reincarnation is a real phenomenon. Please – no! One life is enough. But there are those who believe that we are the universe experiencing itself subjectively, through all of us (“We are all one” – literally), and that we are therefore eternal – more or less. Help!
In 2010, I determined to find out what people had written about the UFO phenomenon. That led me down a series of rabbit holes, and I became fascinated by the paranormal. Eventually I ended up reading about the experiences of author John Keel. He warned: “If you get interested in the paranormal, beware, because it will get interested in you!” I scoffed at that. I certainly found the paranormal to be interesting and entertaining, and I did regard John Keel as sincere (on YouTube you can hear people who witnessed some of the events he described in “The Mothman Prophecies”), but I did not believe such things could happen to me, nor did I believe that the paranormal would get interested in me. I half-imagined that the paranormal happened mainly to druggies and alcoholics, whereas I have never done drugs, and I am teetotal by habit, rather than by conviction.
But since then I have experienced various paranormal events in my life around every two years, and I find that John Michael Greer usually has a ready explanation for them when I relate them to him in his open question sessions, as they generally fit into known paranormal categories. But I won’t bore you with them, as I know that there are those here who would scoff at the paranormal, and indeed my younger self would be most scornful and scathing of my present self if I were able to recount some of my experiences to him. But you live and learn.
Today’s synchronicity: I saw on Wikipedia that John Keel wrote some novels using the pseudonym Harry Gibbs. 😉
Watch this video of Sathya Sai Baba. He died in 2011. Wikipedia describes him as an Indian guru. Sathya Sai Baba’s followers have attributed to him a range of miraculous abilities, including the materialisation of Vibhuti (holy ash) and other small objects such as rings, necklaces, and watches.
In Hinduism, “vibhuti” is sacred ash made of burnt dried wood, burnt cow dung and/or cremated bodies used in Agamic rituals. It is often used in rituals and worn on the forehead or other parts of the body for spiritual protection and uplift.
https://youtu.be/lnCwebH0gyk
Sathya Sai Baba Vibhuti MIracle
At about 0:41 Sai Baba seems to materialise a necklace.
Watch particularly from the 58 seconds mark. Sai Baba appears to pull masses of vibhuti from the receptacle that is being held up by another man. However, the top of the receptacle seems at first to be hidden in darkness.
Move now to the 1:45 mark. Here the receptacle can be clearly seen in light. At one such demonstration, an American man exclaimed to the Indian man standing next to him, “Hey! He’s creating all this vibhuti from thin air! It’s a real miracle!”
The Indian man retorted, “Don’t be stupid, man. You can’t create something from nothing. He’s got the vibhuti piled up in his cupboard at home.”
So that was all right, then! It wasn’t a miracle at all – just a simple case of psychokinesis. 😉 Or was it? If this was a mere trick, could some kind sceptic here please explain how he did it.
Satya Sai Baba , fraudster number 1 . The Rationalist Organisation had asked him every year and year to year to come and perform his miracles in front of them and a reward of $ 1 million then ( $ 20 million today) . Never turned up . Devotees have accused him of homosexuality and dead bodies of raped children were found on his premises . Nothing was done . He was a powerful vote bank that no politician could annoy . Why are you posting such crap ? I don’t know . Nonsense .
Because I saw the video and couldn’t figure out where he was getting all the vibhuti from – or making it appear. But I see that India issued a commemorative coin in his honour last year.
But then you are Indian and I’m not.
The kind of people called “scum of earth” Theby the Duke of Wellington are proud of the fkups United Kingdom had caused to Europe since at least around the time of Marlborough.
UK never got over the battle of Orleans, when some peasant girl from nowhere humiliated the English forces and deposed Henri II, aka Henry VI of England, and put the pretender to the throne, ex-dauphin Charles, back to the throne (and Charles paid the peasant girl by abandoning her to be burnt at stake)
So since then it has done everything to fk up the continent, a goal it has succeeded.
The kind of people who celebrate the screwups UK caused in Europe, while being completely blind to the fact that Hindus and Africans are taking over their streets and important positions, I see them as enemies of civilization.
Without such people Asia would never have had the chance to enter Western Civilization.
After the Sepoy rebellion, UK lacked the strength to expand further in Asia so it decided to make Japan an ally, inviting some revolutionaries there to study in there . It seemed to be a good idea at that time.
Japan repaid the favor with this
https://youtu.be/-kkrHswfPVs?si=7LfiX37LCYqqA1X6
In contrast, France did not let its colonials study mathematics and science. Medicine was the only scientific subject allowed to the colonials.
UK used Asia to spite the continent, and the world is getting Asiafied thanks to its policies.
“while being completely blind to the fact that Hindus and Africans are taking over their streets”
But you never criticise the mushlimbs, dear Kermit. I wonder why not? Are you one of their number? The Dalai Lama has opined that there are far too many of them in Europe.
“Boys, be ambitious!” refers to the famous parting words of American professor William Smith Clark at Sapporo Agricultural College (now Hokkaido University), symbolizing Hokkaido’s pioneering spirit, famously memorialized at the Hitsujigaoka Observation Hill with his statue, which is a major Sapporo landmark where visitors take photos mimicking his gesture. The phrase, though debated in its exact historical form, represents ambition for self-improvement and the frontier spirit, becoming a cornerstone of Hokkaido’s identity and a popular tourist photo spot. —Google AI
If anybody should be blamed for motivating the Japanese to make a fiendish or heroic attempt to conquer or liberate from Western imperialism, then it must surely be William Smith Clark, who served as the college’s president for less than a year in 1876-77 but left an indelible impression. He could have taught his students to be ambiguous, or ambivalent, or even ambidextrous—but no!—he had to insist on “Boy’s be ambitious!”
Emboldened by this teaching, the entire Japanese nation adopted a keenly ambitious attitude. And for over half a century, the more ambitious they were, the more successful they became, annexing Formosa and Korea, and then Manchuria, beating the Russians in the 1905 war, and expanding militarily into China, where in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the US, the UK, and a long list of European countries already held “concessions,” which were essentially self-governing “states within a state” not subject to Chinese administration.
Indeed, everyone who was anyone in colonial power circles had at least one Chinese concession, including the Austrians, the Italians, and even the Belgians. The Chinese felt totally humiliated by the situation, so it’s understandable that they are justifiably proud to have managed to shrug off overt subservience to the colonizers, developed economically, and risen to global prominence once again as the world’s number-one manufacturing country.
In WW2, the Japanese discovered that unbridled ambition doesn’t always lead to success after all. When a bunch of coyotes or hyenas begin fighting over the same carcass, the going is likely to get savage. There was a clear and definite hierarchy of nations back then—a pecking order in which everyone knew their place. It is far less distinct in our time. The leaders of Japan and also Germany and Italy, as relative late-comers to imperialism that were fired with ambition, wanted a bigger slice of the available pie, and decided that they could get it if they were prepared to break the pecking order.
So, they fooled around and found out the hard way.
At least, that’s the story from a certain point of point of view.
Clark was a nobody in USA . Hardly anyone in USA knows that he existed.
USA was paid back with Pearl Harbor
Still it did not kick out the Japanese-“Americans”, and one of the children of those incarcerated, Yoshihiro “Francis” Fukuyama, came up with the stupid end of history idea, which misled US policies for quite a while
If your nation/sphere of influence needs resources you go out and take them. It is that simple. From the northern tip of Greenland to Patagonia.
The “Not enough to go around” problem.
Coffeeguyzz
01/11/2026
Sheng Wu,
The California refinery situation is on track – potentially – to become one of the biggest energy stories in the US this year.
While much of the focus of your linked video was on the closure of the San Pablo Bay pipeline, a much larger situation looms precariously as Valero’s Benicia refinery shuts down in 15 weeks time (already phasing down operations).
The then-available in state refining capacity will have zero surplus capacity to meet daily consumption needs.
Any hiccups along the way (that never happens, amirite?) will result in immediate price hikes and/or gas lines forming at the pumps.
California will have a very tenuous reliance upon their marine import infrastructure capacity which has virtually no ‘extra cushion’ built in (as is implied in the video).
Addendum … almost one million barrels of crude PER WEEK is currently imported into California from Ecuador’s Amazon rain forest in the Oriente Basin.
The beyond horrific images – easily viewable online – of the sickening environmental despoilation is enough to make even the most die hard hydrocarbon boosters blanche.
Yeah, big time ‘Saving The Planet’ shit going on there.
Copy/paste : POB
We will catch up on this when Gail puts up the next post . Just a heads up .
I don’t see the refineries being the cause of a consumption bottleneck in CA or anywhere else. Is see global financial collapse being the cause of a consumption bottleneck everywhere. Those refineries look like they’re closing down right on time.
California refinery shutdowns create significant ripple effects for other states, primarily those in the Western U.S., by increasing fuel prices, causing supply vulnerabilities, and heightening reliance on imports across the region.
Affected States and Impacts
Arizona and Nevada: These two states are heavily dependent on California for their fuel supplies, with California refineries supplying 45% of Arizona’s and 88% of Nevada’s transportation fuels. Consequently, price spikes in California quickly spill over into Arizona and Nevada, and these states are not positioned to compensate for the shortages themselves.
Oregon and Washington: The impact extends to other West Coast states which are also expected to experience higher premiums and supply adjustments due to the integrated regional market. Washington state’s refineries have limited excess capacity and cannot make up for California’s shortfall.
Specific Effects
Higher Fuel Prices: A reduction in the regional supply of refined products leads to increased costs across the West Coast, as the region becomes more reliant on more expensive imports from the U.S. Gulf Coast and Asian markets.
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: The West Coast operates as a relatively isolated “fuel island” with limited pipeline connectivity to the rest of the U.S.. This lack of redundancy means that even minor disruptions, such as a refinery fire or planned maintenance, can lead to significant price volatility and potential supply disruptions in the entire region.
Logistical Challenges: The fuel required in California and parts of Arizona and Nevada is a unique, cleaner-burning blend, which limits the ability of most non-California refineries to produce it quickly. This makes rapid substitution difficult and increases the reliance on long-distance, more costly logistics like marine transport.
Increased Reliance on Imports: The region must increase its dependence on foreign fuel sources, introducing new vulnerabilities related to global market risks, geopolitical events, and shipping delays.
In essence, because of the tightly interconnected regional fuel market and the unique characteristics of the required fuel, other Western states suffer alongside California when its refining capacity is reduced.
This is AI generated . Collateral damage . Complexity and connectivity kills .
No doubt. Thx ravi.
Weez got to keep them SUVs humming along the freeways, don’t we now?
Even if it’s only for a few more years in time. After all, we have our freedom and are entitled to this as proof we are the greatest, advanced Nation that ever existed on the Planet Earth. Right Kulm? Yeah, right…better invest in some good pairs of walking boots…going to need plenty to kick around in.
PS Ecuador is not the “only” place that is despoiled and raped in the Amazonian…there goes the “neighborhood”…
Satellite data show forest loss persists in Brazilian Amazon’s most deforested reserve
https://news.mongabay.com/2025/12/satellite-data-show-forest-loss-persists-in-brazilian-amazons-most-deforested-reserve/
Holds true in most other nations as well
The Rocky Mountains are more of an impediment to pipeline flow than people might expect. It is costly to use pipelines to ship oil uphill, so oil pipelines tend to either move oil generally downward, or follow flat areas.
For a long time, I remember US advertisements giving prices with an asterisk. The asterisk would say, “Higher west of the Rockies.” The problem was that shipping goods to west of the Rockies was expensive. Also, not too much was manufactured west of the Rockies because of the high cost involved.
The quantity of oil being produced in California has been decreasing for a long time.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPCA1&f=M
Alaska oil production has also been decreasing. Alaska oil has been shipped to California for refining.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPAK1&f=M
Without alternate sources of oil for refineries in California, this gets to be a big problem. Canadian oil flows on the other side of the Rockies, down to Chicago and Gulf refineries, so it cannot be used in the refineries in California.
I suppose it is inevitable that the California refineries will have to close. It is not clear to me that even with different policies in California, there would be much oil to extract in California. California’s oil is expensive to extract and refine, and the price doesn’t rise high enough to give very high tax revenue to the state. No wonder the governor is not fond of the oil companies! (But the electricity situation in California is pretty bad, also.)
California’s oil from the Bakersfield area is heavy. So is much of the Alaskan oil. By closing refineries, we are disproportionately losing diesel oil and jet fuel.
As part of my daily affirmations, I make sure I say ” I trust the Invisible Hand” at some point.
You’re not going to make those big trades if you’re wondering about “what if”.
constant source of amusement IG
the thought of you relying on ”an invisble hand”—
suddenly puts an entirely different adjective in my head. with regard to your ”expertise” in certain matters.
but my mind is weird like that…
I think that there is a higher power behind what is happening, everywhere in the world. We have free will to some extent, but what we can actually do is very much limited by resource constraints. The Higher Power is the Invisible Hand. So far, it has been printing a lot of money, to push the world economy along.
“Two unsanctioned Chinese VLCCs are steaming toward Jose Terminal right now. The Thousand Sunny and Xing Ye arrive within days. Chinese-flagged. Chinese-owned. Not on any sanctions list. If Washington boards them: worst US-China maritime incident since 2001. If Washington lets them pass: the blockade was always theater. Russia tested American resolve and blinked. China’s test arrives in 96 hours. “?
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2009856638895960226
These are very large ships, owned by China.
“Two unsanctioned Chinese VLCCs are steaming toward Jose Terminal right now. The Thousand Sunny and Xing Ye arrive within days. Chinese-flagged. Chinese-owned. Not on any sanctions list.”
The US needs to leave these alone, or it is starting a war against China.
I have come to the working conclusion that Shanaka is an AI bot of the Intel services. There may be a person in real life but that’s just cover. His stuff reads exactly like the Asian Guy as sounds, and like I said the other day that Zip’s comment read, though I wasn’t incriminating Zip because I assume Zip isn’t a new commenter but has been around awhile.
We’re at the point now where we can’t trust anybody new just because they’re really smart. Like I’ve always said, the State farms minds by forever halving the distance between the truth that is placed in service of the hegemonic falsehood and that falsehood itself. That halving IS the fake progress narrative in motion. And obviously there are multiple narratives simultaneously operating because of multiculturalism.
We have to beware of new people that are expertly talking doom-lite without having peak oil in the conversation, and also I would say — but I can’t expect you guys to agree on this one — new people who expertly talk about geopolitical intrigue that pushes a supposedly geopolitical narrative towards an organic WW3, like Shanaka is doing here.
Again, notice how Shanaka and Asian Guy’s style is exactly the same. Frequent, concise listings of sequential dynamics. Super clean, clinical writing with momentum and atmosphere.
I’m not buying Shanaka’s narrative here. I think it’s AI generated disinfo. Gaslighting in the age of gaslighting, as is Leavett’s briefing. It unrealistically pushes WW3 escalation logic. I also now think his stablecoin article is disinfo in order to co-opt that narrative.
How do you fuck up all of the guards around Maduro with a microwave without fucking up Maduro. How could Maduro have possibly only been awoken three minutes before he was caught. How could zero manpads be used. How could the VZ military not have standard redundancies like non-electric telescopes watching from the shoreline? Not that that would even crease early warning; the second all your shit got jammed your scrambling to mobilize anyway.
It all reeks of Tom Clancy AI psychological warfare. Buyer beware y’all, let’s keep watching it and be very careful of trusting anyone new, just like IRL once Collapse arrives.
You may very well be right.
The format is different, but it still could be AI.
That is a question I have also. Why were Manpads not used? They are shooting helicopters out of the sky over in Ukraine…so much so that helicopters are not used within range of manpads. Perhaps they were used and the Spec ops helos have special defenses against them.
“When a dozen KC-135s cross the Atlantic simultaneously, you are not watching a drill. You are watching the logistics for long-range precision strikes being pre-positioned. B-2s can launch from Missouri, refuel over Europe, strike Iran, and recover at Diego Garcia in under 30 hours. They do not need to be stationed nearby. “?
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2010195348082532786
This is Shanaka again. It may be an AI generated X post.
‘A Maduro loyalist described what happened when twenty American operators landed against hundreds of defenders: “They launched something that emitted a very intense sound wave. Suddenly I felt like my head was exploding from the inside. We all started bleeding from the nose. Some were vomiting blood. We fell to the ground, unable to move.” Twenty men. Zero American casualties. Hundreds of defenders killed. The White House made sure the world saw this. ‘?
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2010150721820508164
Using your ace card in a pushover target like that appears to be not a great strategy
And even if the self-claimed loyalist was shot if he was willing he would have shot something
He chose not to and live for another day, unlike Chucky and his 200/400 Worcestershires who ‘did their duty’ and led to the deaths of millions of irreplaceable European youths
Another Shanaka post.
Denmark is trying to return to books in schools. Why should you go to school, if they teach you things that have been overcome?
https://youtu.be/aKoCZKtpS3Q?si=B20UzbQt3-tf_pWz
AI is telling us that we have reached the limits and there is no way back: the books are dead. It is like teching you knitting when you are hungry.
My son who teaches in Beijing says his school is aware of the Denmark finding against robo teaching. They are acting to use human teaching.
With the accumulation of genetic mutations, the collective teaching in schools becomes a burden that humans can not handle, also when you have a lack of workforce and resources to do that in the ageing populations.
https://hnonline.sk/slovensko/96254450-slovenski-ucitelia-su-coraz-viac-zahlteni-administrativou-skoly-hovoria-o-systemovom-probleme
It sounds like a good idea.
But computer stuff is so cheap. It is terribly enticing to school districts. In theory, kids can learn from home, even if they don’t speak the language and their parents don’t either.
Computer-Assisted Teaching is inevitable.
https://x.com/xtremepisition/status/2002828742033654242
Nice monologue by Macgregor
I just read a comment about the Minneapolis situation by a participant on The Automatic Earth going by the name tboc, that I thought was worthy of sharing below:
==========
Minnesota has a long history of sympathy, tolerance for and acceptance of immigrant populations. Go back and look at the period after the Vietnam war. To ignore or be ignorant of this history is a failure in planning, strategy and tactics or a deliberate effort to create disorder.
Vehicles engaged in blocking a thoroughfare or vilolation of public safety could have been impounded at first use of the tactic. Loss of the use of a vehicle and civil penalties is enough of a deterrant for most.
Masked gunmen on the street is not law enforcement it is terrorism.
An essential component of crowd control is the recognition that panic induces chaos. Planning to avoid situations where human beings might panic is good policing. Failure to account for panic is a major failure or it is incitement.
This whole ICE, National Guard action is political theater designed to create unrest. An undeclared state of targeted martial law is being implemented to create division and quell dissent.
Divide 80 thousand by 14 million and that would be the percentage of the total number of illegal immigrants in residence in the state of MInnesota. The murder, justifiable or not, of a citizen for an inconsequental reward is poor governance.
and finally. Why Minneapolis?
if you can’t answer that question you are dumber than a sack of cheap hammers.
==========
While I’m not familiar enough with the US to be able to answer “why Minneapolis?” and win that lounge suite first prize I’ve been coveting, if I had to guess, I would say it had something to do with the city’s reputation as a haven for immigrants (as tboc stated at the outset) and to its position as a bastion of progressivism generally and of the Democratic Party in particular—a place where MAGA sympathies are weak even among the working class, and where there are plenty of people fired up about issues related to what used to be called social injustice.
So, the current Republican Federal (I almost mistyped that as “Feral”)l Government might have chosen Minneapolis either to make a point in the ideological battle for the soul of America, or to achieve an escalation of the situation as part of the strategy of tension. Because right wingers and conservatives generally have not been taking the bait, let’s suck it to left wingers and progressives and see if they can be persuaded to riot.
In this analysis, I am assuming that the upper levels of the political parties are joined at the hip and operate covertly as a team, squeezing, stretching, and stabbing (provoking) the poor, tortured, and perplexed American public from both sides like those Spanish bullfighters work to provoke a bull.
If anyone thinks they know “why Minneapolis?” please let us know your thoughts.
Minneapolis & environs is almost unimaginably “progressive.” It was once the place where Mary Tyler Moore threw her hat happily in the air & most people were solid liberal or mildy conservative. It was pretty white. We did some quirky things (Jesse Ventura), but we were Minnesotans.
The Minnesota of the last ten years is changed & deranged. Most people here would rather the state burn down than be called racist. I am not kidding about this! Outrage is a way of life. The large Twin Cities media (local news all day) constantly feeds the misery. I was watching early news the day of the shooting, before the death was confirmed. There was a palpable sense, from media & protestors, that “maybe she is (dead)!” It will be tragic! We will burn it down (again)!
We have just gone crazy in Minnesota. I stay only because of a child.
Marshal Law coming soon!!!
the don must have martial law as an excuse to cancel elections
I’ll take that as a prediction, Norman.
The US went through the Civil War and the two world wars without cancelling either its presidential or (as far as I know) congressional elections, so I very much doubt that even The Donald could arrange something like that.
Although the UK postponed its scheduled 1940 general elections for five years due to World War II. You may remember that as you were in short trousers in 1940.
The UK was a special case, the docility and loyalty of public discussed recently.
But harassing even jailing MPs, not mentioning commoners for political leanings, was not uncommon during the 1920-1930s across W. Europe “democracies”.
Basically, the idea was that venturing beyond approved “socialist” politics boundaries (already discredited as joining big corp. for WWI) means opening backdoor for something deemed uncontrollable and way worse (USSR). You were accused of being too early anti-war or pre-mature antifascist etc.
This changed slightly only few years before the WWII proper.. hence too late.
The oligarchs always win in the end, they can wait out (regroup on pause) decades if necessary, while commoners can’t.
It did enable Franklin D Roosevelt to serve for 12 years
That’s what happens when you read the NYT. Mild psychiatric impairment ensues.
lol drb
i read newspapers extensively…
ive never read one, no matter how prestigious, that didnt meet with disdain from the conspironut end of the OFW diaspora…
it would seem then, that social media is the limit of your grasp of current affairs…..
which tells me all i need to know….
why would I use (western) social media? they are no better than the NYT and most of the time follow the same orders. Unlike you and some other insular guys here, I have actually seen the places and systems I talk of.
That’s a baseless conspiracy norm.
Republicans have won 2 out of the last 3 presidents. And they just swept all three two years ago.
Why would they want to cancel when they are winning the majority?
if you cant see the difference in the current potus, and previous incumbents, theres nothing i can do for you…..
Yeah great comment. It sounds like, between tboc’s opinion that the ice tactics are a deliberate effort to create disorder and RL’s direct experience of Minnesota’s understandable outrage culture WRT racial profiling, that RL probably has the answer that saves the rest of us from being dumb as a sack of hammers. There are no shortage of yootoob shorts of brown and black people getting forced to show their IDs while pumping gas or waiting in some parking lot for their next Uber customer to make their phone go ding or however that works.
Unless of course tboc is into the DA lol and it’s Minnesota because the Hand wants Gabbard-adjacent Jesse Ventura to come back into the picture which he seems like he just did, which would mean that you continue to have your finger on the pulse Tim thank you.
That MN. case rhymes with our ongoing HTOE vs. WAR (sudden spike %prob) debate – I posted more on that on previous page Tim-Your’s thread, given the new longer vids available..
That analysis puts you in the same category as Tim Pool. And it mirrors your inability to see structuralism confidently which causes you to retreat to politics, not partisan politics but rather political consciousness in and of itself.. You can’t even see the true physics (physical structuralism) of the incident, so you retreat to politics and catastrophically devalue life in the process, like Renee Good is the asparagus alleyway and you are Mark Shepard, and scalping people for nonviolent civil disobedience is just the price of doing business. You grow up under Communism JR?
I laid out the physics and asked for criticisms. Tim refined a couple finer points. If you wanted to participate confidently like Tim did, then you would have sought to further refine the reality by countering Tim’s and my composite working reality. That’s teamwork. But instead you politicized the event by focusing on her honking her horn during the prequel movie and ‘analyzing’ the physics by saying “acceleration,” “two ton,” and some irrelevant bullshit about the mental health crisis in the US, and somehow coming up with OKish as your verdict. Like I said, you grow up under Communism and you can’t escape what it did to you? That’s the only thing I can think of because you’re not MAGA.
On the MN. thing – global msm has been saturated with selective pic/clips of the incident, especially dissecting the culmination phase of headshot +/- few seconds ONLY. Commentaries like innocent artistic mother for no reasons murdered in the daylight etc..
Then on less freq. corners of the internet additional [non edited] minutes of running footage started to provide [ CONTEXT ]. Which clearly showed an ICE-raid scene within city neighborhood where ONE SINGLE person is jumping around with ~3ton 4wheel weapon among dozens of cops on foot in the general area.
I repeatedly mentioned (2-3x !) that shooting at people like that was excessive and it would have been dealt differently in other parts of the world by tires shooting first, again way different context ~1ton cars and less crazy-intoxicated pop threat usually around.
For your pleasure as mentioned before, yes I was brought up [in part – moved a lot] under so-called authoritarian rule, fluid silly narrative anyway. So, I’ll be glad to see you construct a new adhoc theory just around that.
The high incidence of intoxicated-mental condition among general public on police force engagement protocols inside US has been [ KNOWN FACT ] for yrs / decades already. Basically, the cops – agents – anti riots-mil .. are clearly trained and instructed to be trigger happy if I trivialize it.. their threshold to fire is set lower, obviously it changes a lot across states/counties, chiefly by shooting first as well but less lethal ammo / weapon system used etc.
The overall TODAY’s reality of upped violence ( ICE recruited-mix out of state ) just crashed on that day into formerly timid St. Paul/MN. area.
Appreciate it brother. A permaculture woman just popped up on my yootoob algo with a piece on the Good killing. Howz that for smart surveillance in the entertainment age! Apparently the Left is noting from the killer’s cam footage (which I erroneously referred to as a body cam but it was just the phone cam he was holding the whole time) something I hadn’t noticed. When he walks around the backside of the car and just as the butch wife has finished talking trash to him and then tells Good to drive, he switches the phone from his right hand to his left –which can be seen in the reflection of one of the car’s windows — such that his right hand is freed up to draw. This is well before she ever puts the car in drive.
Sorry, ate too much artisan rye bread & hearty soup in this freezing weather – so not much blood remaining in the head for serious ~analytics.. for now.
So, the ~3min vid (out of even surely longer actual pre-scene) from the street incident just did not happen – and you are making fun of it with some second split glass reflection tangent.. ?
Oh, I see, did you perhaps mean the latest?
“ICE Shooting of Renee Good the Missed Details: Body Language & Psychology” by Dr. G Explains
So, that means, we here at OFW the humble diy commentariat, solved the case right away (day after), almost week before professional forensic expert.
Bravo (to ourselves)!
What happened to you is not your fault my brother. When you can see the physics as they exist, without political context, is when you will have returned to your true home. Take that soul journey. Such journeys are one the greatest privilege in life. Excited for you.
Why the bitterness at least as I perceived it from the posts ?
That’s not inner or above political layer – that’s reality boundary of this planet. It’s like many people willingly (blind folded) able to mix up beyond-violent *vermin rioters with also “regime” genuinely opposing protestors.
Recently, noticed in some other historical context that the middle ages proper as we ~know them with public executions in open square or hangings from the city entrance gates / towers ( dipped by birds for months-years ) was the real deal.
Actually, that was precede by earlier “more brutal” version where the outcast was first paraded before the relatives of the victim in cage or chains and only then executed by the ” admin / regime ” as already described.
—
fair game 50 : 1cop ;
and or destroyed – burned public / private infrastructure, etc.
That wasn’t me bitterly talking trash JR, that was me being as earnest as I get. You think that my earnestness is just based on my “adhoc theory” about you being subconsciously traumatized by living formative years under an authoritarian government, and you’re not wrong. (There could of course be other reasons for your political disposition on incidents such as this one.) The reason I recommended a soul journey was so that the adhoc theory could be tested if you found yourself to be so inclined some day.
Appreciate the conversation.
Seriously meant points, yes I do have that partial background and I’m a bit of misogynist on top of that (not unusual given recent decades), but frankly I do not take personal-inner joy from that MN. killing..
On more general point, as noted perhaps few days ago, ethnic and longer personal-family heritage-lineage imprint backgrounds are very important forcing (often denied-underappreciated). Which usually can’t be transferred via other means like oral communication, writing (like here now) etc.
In simple terms, it’s often impossible to narrate hard times full spectrum experience to way differently experienced “reality” unfolding elsewhere..
It’s almost like that Doc G. talking about past threat imprinted amygdala, resulting in subconscious direct response or at the minimum serving as guidance vector if you will..
Yeah I hear you JR. Appreciate those reflections. It never crossed my mind that you were taking any joy in it.
It is also home to some quite ‘eccentric’ dentists, like the dentist who killed a famous lion in Rhodesia, or another who glorifies an incestrous cult while not yapping about cubic miles of some metal.
The basic question for Greenlanders: Do you want European healthcare or US healthcare?
More like when am I going to be able to fish again without a license?
Modern healthcare depends on fossil fuels. It is not clear that either European healthcare or US healthcare will be available, in the not too distant future.
A whole lot of drugs come from China and India. If there are not enough to go around, will these countries sell them to us?
There are a lot of unknowns. How many doctors will want to move to Greenland, if more industry moves there? Will hospitals be built to service the additional people there?
Uh, again, the US govs openly said it’s about:
#1 installing and owing (the place not sharing/renting w. EU) new ballistic missile site there
#2 naval passage control
#3 resources
So, you can easily deduct from other existing ~similar sites how many people are needed to operate such zone, the rest are excess pop to be allowed around or (no longer) not..
The fact that Canada has got a European-like healthcare system is not an accident: the populations in cold areas need to be subsidized. It is a kind of “human warmth”.
I sort of agree, but can you be more detailed about how modern healthcare depends on FF?
drb , them ambulances don’t run without diesel and all those chemicals in them tablets cannot be made without FF and the OT ( operation theatre ) don’t work without electricity (FF) . I have been under the knife 4 times . I know this as a first hand experience . The gas for the anaesthesia to the sterilising equipment , the plastic gloves . Nothing , nothing but the graveyard .
These seem like small expenses. The bulk of the expenses is the salaries. yes, they need to be kept alive using food produced with diesel.
Your question was not about hospital management or expenses . It was about how modern healthcare is dependent on FF . No FF is a direct line to the cemetery .
You are both correct to a degree.
But again try visualize the entire system though, all the necessary steps in the edu system so from the first responders-paremedics up to operating room specialist surgeon and staffers. The freq. operating room over-hauls needed after just few yrs (at least in “first world”).. re-fit of ambulances, medicine stocked etc..
Just very recently there was some mini conflict between Don and Emanuel in terms of pharmaceutical factories. Donald was accusing him of ~4x over charging, while he probably mistakenly compared it to cheap old generics not newly researched costlier line of medicament.
In short, health-care is a gigantic complex system, now sadly also compartmentalized across the world, hence very fragile for near-after PO times threshold per indiv countries situation.
Possibly I was not following the thread. I had in mind getting a rough estimate of how much FF could be saved by deleting the healthcare system. not much it seems.
lol drb
eyerolling time again….
have you never been in a modern hospital. and been hit by the reality—-that it is an energy guzzling health factory??
He’s probably bought the propaganda that states that services like healthcare use less fossil fuels. Just because the factories that make medical instruments and machines are off-shored and out-of-sight doesn’t mean they do not exist.
The amount of schools in operation would shrink with less fossil fuel availability because there would be less surplus population. Schools are where we put people where there is no demand for their labor. At school, they find a way to create demand for their labor.
There are other “services” we have that deal with the surplus population–prisons, military—government services. Services deal with putting un-needed people somewhere.
I did a tiny amount of research for this post on “surplus population” . It’s a Marxist term.
There are people in full-blown denial about the implication of the term.
From 1985:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12314258/
“The situation in China is the result of the level of development of the productive forces and the corresponding underdevelopment of culture and education, but it is by no means the result of the effect of Malthus’s “natural law” that population increases in a geometric progression.”
Without fossil fuels, a large share of the population would be working at growing crops. Schools would be very limited. There would not be electricity, or refrigerators. Modern healthcare could not exist.
It is only the surpluses of the system that allow us to have modern healthcare. Once they are gone, modern healthcare will disappear.
you only have to look back to pre-1900—and that’s almost within living memory..
Without adequate healthcare
( adequate fossil fuels)
life expectancy is 40-50.
That is the life expectancy in many third world countries.
Today.
That range would be lower with 0 fossil fuels.
i agree
my pre 1900 thought was just a generalistion.
modern medication cant exist without fossil fuels…
and the real biggie, which everyone chooses to ignore, that in the century or so since weve had antibiotics etc, all the bugs weve been fighting off have been mutating just as hard as weve been hitting them.
so when we stopping hitting them and our walls are down, we will be far more vulnerable than we were in 1900
I agree.
And vaccines are limited in what they can do. When used against mutating viruses, they tend not to do much, except encourage more mutations.
When I hear Judy Collins sing this old ballad in a haunting voice, accompanied by whale song, it always makes my eyes go moist.
If you’ve never heard this before, be warned, you my need to reach for the Kleenex.
Farewell to Tarwathie, adieu Mormond Hill,
And the dear land of Crimond, I bid you farewell;
I’m bound out for Greenland and ready to sail,
In hopes to find riches in hunting the whale.
Adieu to my comrades, for a while we must part,
And likewise the dear lass who fair won my heart;
The cold ice of Greenland my love will not chill,
And the longer my absence, more loving she’ll feel.
Our ship is well rigged and she’s ready to sail.
Our crew they are anxious to follow the whale;
Where the icebergs do float and the stormy winds blow,
Where the land and the ocean is covered with snow.
The cold coast of Greenland is barren and bare,
No seed time nor harvest is ever known there;
And the birds here sing sweetly on mountain and dale,
But there are no sweet birds to sing to the whale.
There’s no habitation for a man to live there,
And the king of that country is the fierce Greenland bear;
And there’ll be no temptation to tarry long there,
With our ship bumper full we will homeward repair.
https://youtu.be/ypxPm7Ejehs?si=RBmQBSEcHg8uC66s
Yes this is AI but is it wrong? I don’t see pension system making it as far as he says
I agree with you. Pensions are likely not to make it as long as the Asian speaker says (2033, IIRC). The actual problem will likely will be worse than he says.
Social Security is mostly a “pay as you go” plan. In a given year, the amounts paid out are mostly the amounts paid in by younger people in that same year. If there are too few younger people, or if they are relatively poor and thus don’t pay in much, benefits will need to be cut back.
There is a little additional funding (besides pay-as-you go) to account for the fact that in the early years after Social Security was started, too much funding was collected because there were not many people over age 65. In those early years, the government simply spent this additional money on other things (wars, particularly). To compensate for the shortfall, the Federal Government funded Social Security with debt “not held by the public,” to make up that shortfall. (This is part of today’s $38 trillion in US debt.)
When I have talked to pension actuaries about the predicament , the plan I have always heard is, “We will simply reduce benefits to use whatever funding is available each year; that is all we can do.” They will raise the retirement age, or cut back on benefits. I would add that today’s government may fail completely. In that case, citizens will need to look to the new government and whatever benefits it can afford to pay.
The video talks about the likelihood of higher prices for oil in the future (or something like that). Simple lack of availability of oil is just as bad, even if the oil price is low. Without enough oil, farms will be less productive. It will not be possible to ship goods as far. Either way, there will not be enough food, new housing, and new vehicles to go around.
I think that to some extent we are already reaching this point. This is what is leading to all of the conflict, and the withholding of exports of certain minerals. Years ago, I thought that by 2026, we would certainly have problems. But somehow, things have held together, so far.
The underlying reason for lack of action is that fact that no elected official wants to talk about pension payments being cut. Elected officials will never agree to cutting benefits because they would never be re-elected. So the problem keeps getting pushed down the road.
Thanks Gail, Two thoughts….I am not sure that a new government would honor older obligations of the past government. Especially since the majority of people will not be getting pensions. This Happened after WW1 when the great depression hit. People did not have sympathy for the soldiers who did not get their pensions.
Also I believe the U.S debt is 39 trillion but why split hairs! I remember when a trillion used to be a lot of money! Are the pensions tied to stock market advances? Can the stock market continue to grow? So far it seems to because they have scared people out of holding cash because it is losing its value so quickly.
I feel that the U.S is at war with China but it is hard to see how it plays out. China can take a punch I am not so sure that the U.S can. It may have a glass jaw….
I didn’t mean that the new government would honor the promises of the old government.
Both the money and the pension promises from the old government likely will disappear. (Similar to Confederate Dollars becoming worthless.)
The new government will give out whatever benefits it chooses. They likely won’t be a whole lot.
In the US, failing pension systems could be partially funded directly from taxes too. Or pensioners could be incentivized to take medical assistance in dying. Or undocumented aliens could be offered US citizenship on the condition that they adopt a US pensioner as a quasi-relative and take care of them in the way families traditionally did. Or US pensioners could be transferred en masse to somewhere nice and warm and cheap to live, like Venezuela!!!
But whatever the solutions or bandaids applied, eventually hte US and other governments will reach a point where they can’t take in enough in taxes or in higher debt to fund all their outgoings. In the end, there is not going to be enough stuff to go around.
The problem of keeping everyone happy is insoluble. Unless the annual “surplus” won from “nature” can be increased, or the amount of debt in the system can be decreased, the amount of annual benefits received by people, including by pensioners, must decrease.
You must be a pensioner….
“Or undocumented aliens could be offered US citizenship on the condition that they adopt a US pensioner as a quasi-relative and take care of them in the way families traditionally did.”
I think that’s a wonderful idea and like traditional families, they can move into the nice big, but sadly empty house, that the (childless?)pensioner owns. Then, as with the traditional family way, take ownership when the inevitable demise occurs.
Win win situation. Sad lonely pensioners get company from people that don’t just consider them an inconvenience(might even look to them for wisdom) and big houses revert to their intended use.
Have you sent your proposal to the UN?
Before you know it, you’ll be Ambassador Tim(feel free to introduce me to Francesca Albanese).
I’m imagining the hate mail and death threats that would come my way if I was outed as the proposer and the UN actually pushed it.
Realistically, though, any such system would bound to be abused in all sorts of ways by individual actors with less than honorable intent. Not to mention politicized for gain by politicians of all stripes.
If only Congress could pass a law mandating everybody to be nice, caring and considerate of each other, the US would be a more comfortable place in which to live! 🙂
So no introduction to Francesca Albanese?
Rise above the hate Tim and do it for me
Perhaps pensions are not consistent with biology which is necessary for economics to even exist. Humans have a “useful” economic life and when repairs exceed the economic value those repairs may not be consistent with biology.
Readers can work that one out however they might wish.
Dennis L.
The next step down for California:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/even-googles-founders-have-had-enough-california-and-are-saying-adios
Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin quietly began unwinding portions of their financial empires in California in the days leading up to Christmas, according to corporate filings reviewed by The New York Times, as progressive lawmakers consider a proposed billionaire wealth tax. This development confirms our earlier note that California is on an accelerated path toward self-destruction.
Here are the new details from NYT’s report that further confirm our previous reporting:
In the 10 days before Christmas, an entity connected to Mr. Brin, 52, terminated or moved 15 California limited liability companies that oversee some of his business interests and investments out of the state, according to documents seen by The New York Times. Seven of the companies — including those that appear to manage one of Mr. Brin’s superyachts and his interest in a private air terminal at San Jose’s international airport — were converted into Nevada entities.
Mr. Brin is joining Mr. Page, 52, in reducing his California presence. More than 45 California limited liability companies associated with Mr. Page filed documents last month to either become inactive or move out of the state, according to state records. A trust with ties to Mr. Page also purchased a $71.9 million mansion in Miami’s Coconut Grove neighborhood this week, according to a deed seen by The Times.
Another entity jointly managed by Mr. Brin and Mr. Page moved out of California and to Nevada on Christmas Eve, according to a filing seen by The Times.
We will have to wait and see if other employees start moving, too.
Just an observation . A flurry of articles and posts ven on MSM now saying that the VZ oil crap — will not flow , too expensive etc etc . How things change .😃
That is the way it is. We now get diesel from oil that is in many ways “crap.”
The whole point was denying the oil from China so Mission Accomplished.
No problem for China .
it’s pretty fun to see the world play catch up. And watch the theater. And Trump looking like maybe he should’ve talked to the oil guys first. And maybe not alienated the shale guys either. Lol. Still, big function of the DA served, and served well.
Why does the oil continue to go to China ? Break the contract and the risk contagion .
“China does not anchor its overseas exposure to individuals. Not to Maduro. Not to Chávez. Not to any political figure. It anchors itself to legal entities, contracts, infrastructure systems, and revenue flows. Venezuela, in this sense, is not a man. It is a juridical person — a continuing legal entity. Just as when one buys shares in a company, ownership does not evaporate because the CEO changes.
From this perspective, the idea that “Maduro is gone, therefore China loses everything” collapses immediately.
Most Chinese oil agreements with Venezuela are not symbolic political deals. They are binding financial contracts, with repayment mechanisms, collateral structures, penalty clauses, and derivative linkages embedded deep into global finance. These are not isolated South–South arrangements. They are connected — directly and indirectly — to Western financial institutions, commodity traders, insurers, and clearing systems, including entities tied to Wall Street.
If these contracts are broken, the consequence is not China “taking a loss.” It is a cascade event: defaults triggering counterparty exposure, derivatives being repriced, legal disputes crossing jurisdictions, and confidence shock spreading outward. At a certain point, this ceases to be a Venezuelan problem and becomes a systemic global one. “
This is important:
“Break the contract and the risk contagion.”
US CITIZENS TOLD TO LEAVE VENEZUELA “IMMEDIATELY”
The United States has urged all its citizens to leave Venezuela immediately due to serious security risks. The US embassy warns that armed militias, known as colectivos, are setting up roadblocks and may search vehicles for signs of support for the United States.
Americans still in the country are advised to remain vigilant and avoid road travel. The warning comes amid heightened tensions between Washington and Caracas following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, although Venezuelan authorities have signaled openness to dialogue and the US has paused plans for a second strike.
F°°k . We are going to double production 😂
https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2010131514168606987
In his first term the pedo president told all business to leave, I’m surprised it took so long to send the message to all the operatives.
https://www.telesurenglish.net/halliburton-executive-contradicts-trump/?amp=1
Putting themselves in another legal bind every time they call Maduro The President of Venezuela, which they keep doing, even pres pedo.
There’s a reason Maduro said what he said when he was kidnapped.
https://misionverdad.com/globalistan/el-desastre-ilegal-de-eeuu-en-torno-al-secuestro-presidencial
Suprise suprise, it’s Mexico’s turn.
https://www.telesurenglish.net/trump-threat-mexico-ground-operation/?amp=1
Iran is the interesting one. Yesterday an Iranian(?) hacker group announced that they had gained certain information and then the government announced that they had caught the on ground ring leader, in possession of enough evidence to confirm the organisational origins(oops). Given Iran’s previous statements that they are no longer prepared to be the only adult(act proportionally), which they say now includes preemptive, coupled with the rumour that they have closed two air corridors, could suggest that they have chosen to punch first and possibly even pushed events once they had passed a certain point.
For anyone that believes the troubles in Iran are as portrayed(wholly local rather than the usual mo) could I suggest you look into what and who are being attacked. The amount of fire stations and engines gives it away, but if that’s not enough, ask why anyone, let alone multiple people would start stabbing nurses(multiple seperate attacks). US military transporters were very busy around Iran’s borders in the week or two before events kicked off and Eeyore opened up star link for free over Iran, the moment the government shut the internet down(which probably helped illuminate foreign operatives).
Now we have ray guns to distract and despite how that will dispute the original fiction, it works.
Thanks ravi. Who wrote that? Because it sounds like another bot just like I was talking about upthread under postkey’s Shanaka link.
I’m not saying that what the quote says is invalid, but it’s another perfect example of doom-lite minus peak oil. And doom-lite minus peak oil means psychological warfare. Means political cover for Collapse.
We folks here don’t need internal validation for Collapse anymore. I haven’t needed it for at least a decade, but I understand that not everyone is like me. But just about everybody here now shouldn’t be in constant need of internal validation because everybody can feel Collapse humming through their bones now. That feeling might die down again for a spell if it’s only another preliminary wave of the tsunami but this wave is unmistakable.
We don’t need validation from outside the peak oil community though we do need good information from outside it.
All true, whole cultures are separatist cultures. There’s no straddling two worlds when shit gets real.
Like I posted about a couple days ago as a result of asking the AI questions, there are no Chinese-VZ contracts that bind production to delivery. VZ can sell to whoever it wants. If the US is controlling sales like it says it is, and selling at market prices instead of discount prices, then the US can prioritize the servicing of essential Chinese debts as necessary in order to prevent contagion until that financial rat’s nest can be untangled from the recesses of the engine bay. Maybe that’s what the first 50M barrels that are getting hurried to the US are about.
Or maybe the contagion proves to be an intentional trigger for global financial collapse. Political cover. The time for structural Collapse is now, so it makes perfect sense if numerous political events are happening that threaten financial collapse.
So I’m still not convinced that oil must go to China beyond the fulfillment of their existing sales contracts, however long those are lasting for.
A different POV on Greenland .
https://www.collapse2050.com/why-the-u-s-is-threatening-greenland-and-canada/
Trump will be long dead by time the Arctic melts. I think he’ll be gone sometime this year.
How sad!
Think of all that beachfront resort property and golf courses he won’t be able to develop!
Think Fjord-a-Lago!
After I look at the issues, I don’t think climate change is much of a factor. I think that excessive population relative to water resources is a factor, and misestimation of future water resources is another factor. There are other similar issues.
The points the article raises with respect to why the resources of Greenland and Canada would be useful are true, with or without climate change. The use of climate change is mostly an attention grabber.
Even more different POVs on Greenland and North America—Deep Time Maps
https://deeptimemaps.com/map-lists-thumbnails/north-america/
History does not always progress. Sometimes it regresses big.
I do think that this is time for history to regress badly.
The City of London fought for 27 years to undo the French Revolution, and it succeeded. There are not much to write about European history from 1815 to around 1860. There were wars and revolutions which are hardly remembered now, and until the Resorgimento of 1861 there are not too many things to talk about Europe except soap operas (Dickens, Balzac, Dumas, etc).
The initiative began to pass to USA, consisted by less advanced peoples. The late Dr. Firth, descended from midland forest rangers who would nave have never dreamt of Oxford if Chucky and his 200/400 Worcestershires did not do’ their duty’, said “Europe was Saved” and I asked Tim , sind Dr. Firth was not around anymore, and Tim answered wit ha long poem which I have saved.
Still, despite of Dr. Firth’s claims, Europe began to stagnate, as those with frustrated ambitions began to move to USA to follow their dreams.
Trump’s increasingly erratic and haphazard approaches appear to be the last attempts to salvage Western civilization. if he fails, civilization falls to the level of China , and the zombified Asians can’t advance it at all.
A thousand plus years of stagnation will await . I have solutions, which will make Roosevelt’s incarceration of Japanese-“Americans” in 1942 look very tame. In my opinion they should have been stripped of their US citizenship and shipped back to Japan after the war.
nothing yo ever write has anything to do with resources. it is always about master race or something similar.
Because all of my writings imply vastly reducing resource use by those who do not qualify to belong in the civilization there is no need to reemphasize that fact every time.
And you being the judge on those not belonging..LOL
He specifically excludes those who had th most advanced civs for 70% of human (agricultural) history. so it is not about civ and more about race.
Because on the internet, nobody knows Kermit is a muppet. 😉
History began around 1500
Anything before that is basically myth
this is a Norman sized weaseling out. I assume it is because in Europe the press was invented. But the press had existed for 2500 years prior. you are going to find out as the USA relinquishes the last 5 of 64 critical technologies to the Chinese.
He is not a judge. He is a person with an opinion. Everybody has an opinion.
Just like that fella Addie Hitter in Germany…he held lots of opinions too.
How did that work out for his “master race” folk, 😮..Yeah, everyone thinks they know..
George Orwell: ‘Every generation imagines itself to be more intelligent than the one that went before it.’
At its core, this quote questions generational arrogance. Every new generation tends to believe it has finally “figured things out”—that it is more enlightened, more moral, more intelligent than those who came before. Orwell isn’t denying progress. He’s warning against smugness.
Or hubris
That’s the covilizational ‘progress’ narrative for you.
Of course, since it’s a reflection on generational hubris, and by generational he means across the mainstream political orthodoxy, it’s really not a very incisive observation at all. More like a facile statement. Everybody outside of the mainstream always has known that the mainstream sux, always has done, and always will do. Is that an intergenerational arrogance? And it’s an especially facile statement if he’s not denying ‘progress’ like he should have been.
Is that individual arrogance on my part or is it true?
And FTR, by master race Hitler meant a race of men and women that was collectively higher functioning on the cultural level. He was using the old-fashioned conception of race. Had nothing to do with skin color. For example, the SS was the only fighting force in WW2 that was racially integrated.
Mike, beware the Hitler fallacy, formally known as reductio ad Hitlerum (Latin for “reduction to Hitler”)—a logical fallacy that attempts to invalidate an argument by claiming that the same idea was also held or practiced by Adolf Hitler or the Nazi Party.
This is a form of the association fallacy or guilt by association, where an idea is deemed wrong not because of any inherent flaw in its logic, but because of its superficial association with a universally condemned figure. The core structure of the fallacious argument is:
Person 1 suggests that Y is true.
Hitler also liked Y.
Therefore, Y is false or evil.
Key Characteristics
Irrelevance: The character or actions of the person making an argument (or historically holding a view) are generally irrelevant to whether the argument itself is logically sound or factually correct. The fact that Hitler was a vegetarian or an anti-smoking advocate does not make vegetarianism or anti-smoking inherently bad practices.
Distraction: The tactic is often used to derail a debate because comparisons to Nazism tend to distract and anger the opponent, shifting the focus away from the actual topic at hand.
Guilt by Association: It operates on the principle that if a “bad” person supports a concept, the concept itself must be “bad”.
Reductio ad Absurdum pun: The term “reductio ad Hitlerum” is a pun on the legitimate logical argument called “reductio ad absurdum” (“reduction to the absurd”), which aims to show a position is wrong by demonstrating that it leads to an absurd or contradictory conclusion. The Hitler fallacy, by contrast, merely connects a person or idea to Hitler to trigger an emotional, rather than a logical, rejection.
Maybe the master race is the one that best uses resources.
The Asian people tend to be incredibly organized. In the US, creativity and individual differences have been more greatly emphasized. A balance between the two is needed. Too much differences among people make them difficult to teach and govern. Without strict organization of families and schools, it is hard to make the economy move forward.
Europe has emphasized the government providing a safety net for everyone, and not a lot of differences between the top and bottom. The approach is terribly expensive, and not working very well any more.
The maximum power principles makes use of whatever resources are available, in whatever way seems to be most efficient at producing output. This favors development around one or more core countries.
if it is about efficiency then the white race is fucked. and of course you are right.
I’m really curious about Europe they seem to be in a wiley coyote moment. It’s what is coming next for the rest of the world so it will probably be a preview of what is to come.
Ive been reserching the Neanderthals for a new project…
They were successful here on Earth for twice as long as us, without screwing things up…their DNA is in all of us.
They used resources—without consuming them…
maybe that is the secret of continued success…
But what was their GDP?
We need a yardstick to measure success
gdp didnt work
they were almost all wiped out by a supervolcano 40k years ago.
apart from the bits of them in you and me. (which probably explains a lot)
So, the s#x part kinda worked out for them partly… nature always finds a way..Jeff Goldblum in Jurassic Park.
I think the point that Kulm makes is that we high minded folks that look down on his ideas, ….are able to even exist because of resources that allow us to. In the absence of those resources….hard decisions have to be made and “high mindedness” goes out the door. We are approaching the point of, do we take dramatic action to save civilization?
“ . . . to establish the difference between a problem and a predicament, noting that problems have answers or solutions but predicaments only have outcomes. The other primary goal here is to establish the fact that all of our modern environmental issues are symptom predicaments of a root predicament – ecological overshoot. Name almost any issue – climate change, pollution loading, energy and resource decline, biodiversity decline, extinction, food and water security, etc. – and one will discover that these aren’t “problems.” They are symptom predicaments of ecological overshoot – without reducing overshoot, they likewise cannot be reduced. . . . “?
https://erikmichaels.substack.com/p/the-psychology-behind-the-misunderstanding
Kulmthestatusquo believes in the myth of human progress. There’s no Übermensch, no God, no higher form of humanity—just a primate fated to return to the earth after death.
Well, we can’t just sit still, can we? We have to make some kind of progress, even if it’s only a rake’s progress.
Some medieval monarchs used to go “on progress” with huge entourages, stopping off for a few weeks or months at various cities and castles in their kingdom or empire, finally getting back where they started, and then doing it again. They were forever on the move, a cross between nomads and glampers.
As for onward and upward progress, or improvement, in a finite world there are bound to be limits, but the alternative to struggling to make progress is to wallow in or to accept what one has. If we had all done that and nothing but that since time immemorial, our ancestors would not have made enough progress to allow us to live as comfortably as we currently do.
And if you are reading this on a PC, a tablet, or a smartphone, or even on a cranky, slow and ugly 20-year-old laptop, you are probably fairly comfortably off.
When I hear the phrase “do their duty,” the first thing that comes into my mind is the story about Viscount Horatio Nelson that used to be told to schoolchildren all over the English-speaking world. As most people know, Nelson was a sailor who rose to become a commander and eventually an admiral in the British Navy, lost an eye fighting the Frenchies during the naval skirmishes that led to the British capture of Corsica, and later lost an arm in the Battle of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, and eventually lost his life in the Battle of Trafalgar, which ended Napoleon’s naval ambitions.
“England expects that every man will do his duty” was the signal sent by Nelson from his flagship HMS Victory just before the Battle of Trafalgar on October 21, 1805. This message is credited with raising his sailors’ morale by calling on them to fulfill their patriotic duty for King and Country. Following their victory, highlighted by Nelson’s death in the battle, these words began to be used as a powerful reminder of the values of courage and responsibility, a tradition that was carried down throughout the 19th and into the 20th century.
The late Dr. Firth, who would be in his late seventies if he was still with us, would have undoubtedly been educated to respond patriotically to Nelson’s message and to the surrounding story of his courage, self sacrifice, sense of honor, etc., just as he would have to Sir Francis Drake’s quip about having time to finish the game of bowls and beat the Spanish too, or the Charge of the Light Brigade, or songs such as Land of Hope and Glory or some of the more jingoistic of Rudyard Kipling poems.
It was a default ingrained attitude of the middle classes and conservatives of Dr. Firth’s age group. As an anti-imperialist, George Orwell railed against this, and so did my father, who used to lament that British working classes were the most deferential people in the world—in stark contrast to the French, Germans, Spanish and Italians—soaked through and through with patriotic sentimentality and conspiring in their own servitude. Their continuous carping and complaining about the way the country was run was like a pressure release valve that stopped them from becoming angry enough to revolt like the continentals did from time to time.
Probably a good percentage of the working class shared my father’s lamentations, and they were actually complaining about themselves or their fellow workers, more than about the upper classes. The thing is, they could never bring themselves to get really angry with their “betters,” the gentry or the aristocracy. That’s one big reason why revolution was a non-starter in Britain.
A country in which everyone feels that member must “do their duty” is a whole lot easier to lead is incredibly easier to lead than one in which the government seems inept.
In the latter situation, young people see that even many of those who stick by the rules cannot get jobs that pay well enough to support a family. Furthermore, sticking by the rules seems impossible when parents are high on drugs or alcohol, or cannot reliably put food on the table.
In the US system if the parents can not put food on the table the government steps in with free housing, free food, free medical, free education, free clothing, free water/electric, free transportation.
It is a fight between the workers republicans and the eaters democrats. As the wealth goes down someone has to go without.
A major issue is that the standard of living of those who live off the dole is approximately the same as the standard of living of many people working hard trying to support themselves. It becomes frustrating to see people doing nothing, or being high on drugs and alcohol, being able to afford the same things many hard-working people can barely afford. Even some people with college degrees or more advanced degrees find that their standard of living is not materially better than that of those on welfare. This can be because high paying jobs are not available in the chosen field, or because of student loans, or some combination.
The people who benefited from the push to send the majority of the youth population to college were the lenders, not the students who borrowed money to attend.
Other people who benefited were the “schools” who charged wealthy “out-of state” students more money for the same “education” .
Wonder if there’s some sort of island effect going on there.
Are you suggesting that Kul is inbred ?
Muppets don’t breed. He was brought to life by the Good Fairy, Pinocchio style. 😉
Good one guest. kulm with a Habsburg jaw.
Actually it looks like I replied to kulm by mistake when I was actually responding to Tim’s comment on the political vagaries of the stereotypical Englishman. I think, as kulm’s comment is so damn far up it’s hard to track a straight line through the snowfield.
All thr rebels died witb Wat Tyler
And those who did not like it had plenty of places to emigrate
So only the conformists remained
Briefly discarding, once more, my self-imposed, (energy saving!) no comment policy, I concur with the erudite – and ever amusing – Tim.
Marx and Engels lamented the fact that the majority of British workers were just ‘too comfortable’ to revolt in the Continental fashion, and Queen Victoria surely had it exactly right when she said ‘Give my people good ale and beef, and they will be loyal’. Actually, a very astute and sound political asesment.
Good ale and beef are, even if they can be found, increasingly difficult to find here now at a good price (I fear I shall fade away!) which doesn’t bode well and no doubt explains why a crude digital tyranny is being – rather rapidly – imposed in the UK. Although one supposes that the foreigners and dagos who swarm around the place, and who worship strange gods, won’t be too bothered by that.
But really what I want to impart is this delicious anecdote from the Crimean war on the Nelson theme:
A Guards officer noticed, after I think the battle of Inkerman, a fallen, clearly dying, guardsman who seemed to be trying to attract his attention, so he dismounted and brought his ear close to the lips of the dying man: perhaps a last message to a dear one in England? If so, he must pass it on…..
‘At least, sir, ‘ croaked the humble private, ‘they can’t say we didn’t do our duty!’ And promptly expired.
And I want to shock Kulm: the neglect of the sick and wounded in that war was notorious, ad this same officer recorded that he and the other Guards officers – at that date recruited exclusively from the best and richest families in Britain (real gentlemen, not fakes like Boris Johnson ) not only bought nourishing and tasty luxuries for their men from their own deep pockets, but actually nursed and bathed them with their own hands, and sat with them as they agonised. I do hope he has an apoplectic fit over such atrocious, and misguided, behaviour to the scum of the earth’.
Finally,Happy New Year, Gail, and may God bless you!
Oh, and ‘Reante’, do learn some manners and people might like you better. It really does spoil your often somewhat interesting posts.
Long time since I saw you here
These rich people took care of the men from their own regions since the latter would return to farm the lords’ lands or open shops there
At that time people in the same region were put into the same unit
So they could make sure that they were taking care of their employees, not some stranger from some other region
I expect that dialects were little different for men coming from different areas. So if units were composed of people from the same area, they likely could understand each other.
Oh and reante….lol. What, did you just remember something at the last second and you’re calling down the stairs to the help?
You’re welcome for my somewhat interesting posts that you needed to somewhat thank me for.
What you see is what you get. I’m just a catcher in the rye. Why would anybody in your world like me?
We dont need any master race. All human races are beautiful and lovable and can have offspring together. What is right, we should not be stupid or lazy and do the best we can!
The Asians used to have a very energy efficient lifestyle, also the people living at the Amazonas, think of tera preta. Unfortunately, they are adapting the American lifestyle, which is based on the huge distances of the continent. You dont need a car in a densely populated area but you need it on a lonely farm somewhere on the big planes.
People dont think this through and that for sure is nothing like an “master race” in the sense of “master the path of humanity as best as possible”. I read kulms posts like that.
What happens is Asians just suit their lifestyles according to whatever resources available and do not try to improve anything.
Asians are just aping American lifestyle since that looks good on TV. If USA loses power they will stop doing so
The pretender for the Shah is surrounded by those who want revenge.
They will reintroduce the SAVAK, which more than anything else alienated the Shah’s government from the people, and intend to return everything to the last days of Phalavi.
As resources decline, things are going to regress back to the systems which are supported by lesser energy.
According to Wikipedia,
SAVAK was the intelligence and security agency of the Imperial State of Iran from 1957 to 1979. It was created and trained by the CIA, and repressed political opponents, dissidents, and leftists with torture and violence.
You are right; it is an approach that works with less energy.
I expect that religions will become more popular everywhere, especially as it becomes more obvious that governments cannot afford all the safety nets and pensions that they have in the past. People need something to look forward to. Governments have made huge promises which they mostly cannot keep.
AYATOLLAH may have been shot fleeing to the airport by a military coup.
https://x.com/1800factsmatter/status/2009823159420096868
Is there some further context to it? The propaganda channels of the exiled groups have been saying something like this for an entire week..
That gate looks pretty shi##y, could be some side entrance or regional palace-compound instead.
The final round of escalation should include real mil deployment in the streets along or instead of the riot police force up to this point. This has not happened yet.
Let’s wait for more info or rather till Monday if the total collapse currency (exchange rate) from late Friday would be confirmed or it was ~merely some sort of flash crash at few outlets (induced from the West).
PS the insane birth rate – up to early 1990s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran
Every oil producing country seems to have had a rapid increase in population, after it started. I expect that this had to do with many more of the babies living to adulthood, with the better living standards that came from the wealth that came with oil. Also, things like antibiotics.
It seems to take quite a while to get the birth rate down, and the Moslem faith doesn’t seem to push people toward lower birth rates.
Yes, that’ correct, at times say Saudi Arabia used to have even steeper curve in that statistics. But if we cross-compare it with available resources per country the case of Iran would be still relatively more excessive.. say more ala 3rd world..
For large part, both people and admins did not take into account resource limits till say 1970s then the graphs tend to collapse downwards (indirect and direct forcing – > improved social status through having less kids).