Economists have given us a model of how prices and quantities of goods are supposed to interact.
Figure 1. From Wikipedia: The price P of a product is determined by a balance between production at each price (supply S) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand D). The diagram shows a positive shift in demand from D1 to D2, resulting in an increase in price (P) and quantity sold (Q) of the product.
Unfortunately, this model is woefully inadequate. It sort of works, until it doesn’t. If there is too little of a product, higher prices and substitutions are supposed to fix the problem. If there is too much, prices are supposed to fall, causing the higher-priced producers to drop out of the system.
This model doesn’t work with oil. If prices drop, as they have done since mid-2014, businesses don’t drop out. They often try to pump more. The plan is to try to make up for inadequate prices by increasing the volume of extraction. Of course, this doesn’t fix the problem. The hidden assumption is, of course, that eventually oil prices will again rise. When this happens, the expectation is that oil businesses will be able to make adequate profits. It is hoped that the system can again continue as in the past, perhaps at a lower volume of oil extraction, but with higher oil prices.
I doubt that this is what really will happen. Let me explain some of the issues involved.
[1] The economy is really a much more interlinked system than Figure 1 makes it appear.
Supply and demand for oil, and for many other products, are interlinked. If there is too little oil, the theory is that oil prices should rise, to encourage more production. But if there is too little oil, some would-be workers will be without jobs. For example, truck drivers may be without jobs if there is no fuel for the vehicles they drive. Furthermore, some goods will not be delivered to their desired locations, leading to a loss of even more jobs (both at the manufacturing end of the goods, and at the sales end).
Ultimately, a lack of oil can be expected to reduce the availability of jobs that pay well. Digging in the ground with a stick to grow food is a job that is always around, with or without supplemental energy, but it doesn’t pay well!
Thus, the lack of oil really has a two-way pull:
(a) Higher prices, because of the shortage of oil and the desired products it produces.
(b) Lower prices, because of a shortage of jobs that pay adequate wages and the “demand” (really affordability) that these jobs produce.
[2] There are other ways that the two-way pull on prices can be seen:
(a) Prices need to be high enough for oil producers, or they will eventually stop extracting and refining the oil, and,
(b) Prices cannot be too high for consumers, or they will stop buying products made with oil.
If we think about it, the prices of basic commodities, such as food and fuel, cannot rise too high relative to the wages of ordinary (also called “non-elite”) workers, or the system will grind to a halt. For example, if non-elite workers are at one point spending half of their income on food, the price of food cannot double. If it does, these workers will have no money left to pay for housing, or for clothing and taxes.
[3] The upward pull on oil prices comes from a combination of three factors.
(a) Rising cost of production, because the cheapest-to-produce oil tends to be extracted first, leaving the more expensive-to-extract oil for later. (This pattern is also true for other types of resources.)
(b) If workers are becoming more productive, this growing productivity of workers is often reflected in higher wages for the workers. With these higher wages, workers can afford more goods made with oil, and that use oil in their operation. Thus, these higher wages lead to higher “demand” (really affordability) for oil.
Recently, worker productivity has not been growing. One reason this is not surprising is because energy consumption per capita hit a peak in 2013. With less energy consumption per capita, it is likely that, on average, workers are not being given bigger and better “tools” (such as trucks, earth-moving equipment, and other machines) with which to leverage their labor. Such tools require the use of energy products, both when they are manufactured and when they are operated.
Figure 2. World Daily Per Capita Energy Consumption, based on primary energy consumption from BP Statistical Review of World Energy and 2017 United Nations population estimates.
(c) Another “pull” on demand comes from increased investment. This investment can be debt-based or can reflect equity investment. It is these financial assets that allow new mines to be opened, and new factories to be built. Thus, wages of non-elite workers can grow. McKinsey Global Institute reports that growth in total “financial assets” has slowed since 2007.
Figure 3. Figure by McKinsey Global Institute showing that growth in debt in financial instruments (both debt and equity) has slowed significantly since 2007. Source
More recent data by McKinsey Global Institute shows that cross-border investment, in particular, has slowed since 2007.
Figure 4. Figure by McKinsey Global Institute showing that global cross-border capital flows (combined debt and equity) have declined by 65% since the 2007 peak. Download from this page.
This cross-border investment is especially helpful in encouraging exports, because it often puts into place new facilities that encourage extraction of minerals. Some minerals are available in only a few places in the world; these minerals are often traded internationally.
[4] The downward pull on oil and other commodity prices comes from several sources.
(a) Oil exports are often essential to the countries where they are extracted because of the tax revenue and jobs that they produce. The actual cost of extraction may be quite low, making extraction feasible, even at very low prices. Because of the need for tax revenue and jobs, governments will often encourage production regardless of price, so that the country can maintain its place in the world export market until prices again rise.
(b) Everyone “knows” that oil and other commodities will be needed in the years ahead. Because of this, there is no point in stopping production altogether. In fact, the cost of production is likely to keep rising, putting an upward push on commodity prices. This belief encourages businesses to stay in the market, regardless of the economics.
(c) There is a long lead-time for developing new extraction capabilities. Decisions made today may affect extraction ten years from now. No one knows what the oil price will be when the new production is brought online. At the same time, new production is coming on-line today, based on analyses when prices were much higher than they are today. Furthermore, once all of the development costs have been put in place, there is no point in simply walking away from the investment.
(d) Storage capacity is limited. Production and needed supply must balance exactly. If there is more than a tiny amount of oversupply, prices tend to plunge.
(e) The necessary price varies greatly, depending where geographically the extraction is being done, and depending on what is included in the calculation. Costs are much lower if the calculation is done excluding investment to date, or excluding taxes paid to governments, or excluding necessary investments needed for pollution control. It is often easy to justify accepting a low price, because there is usually some cost basis upon which such a low price is acceptable.
(f) Over time, there really are efficiency gains, but it is difficult to measure how well they are working. Do these “efficiency gains” simply speed up production a bit, or do they allow more oil in total to be extracted? Also, cost cuts by contractors tend to look like efficiency gains. In fact, they may simply be temporary prices cuts, reflecting the desire of suppliers to maintain some market share in a time when prices are too low for everyone.
(g) Literally, every economy in the world wants to grow. If every economy tries to grow at the same time and the market is already saturated (given the spending power of non-elite workers), a very likely outcome is plunging prices.
[5] As we look around the world, the prices of many commodities, including oil, have fallen in recent years.
Figures 3 and 4 show that investment spending spiked in 2007. Oil prices spiked not long after that–in the first half of 2008.
Figure 5. Monthly Brent oil prices with dates of US beginning and ending QE.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a way of encouraging investment through artificially low interest rates. US QE began right about when oil prices were lowest. We can see that the big 2008 spike and drop in prices corresponds roughly to the rise and drop in investment in Figures 3 and 4, above, as well.
If we look at commodities other than oil, we often see a major downslide in prices in recent years. The timing of this downslide varies. In the US, natural gas prices fell as soon as gas from fracking became available, and there started to be a gas oversupply problem.
I expect that at least part of gas’s low price problem also comes from subsidized prices for wind and solar. These subsidies lead to artificially low prices for wholesale electricity. Since electricity is a major use for natural gas, low wholesale prices for electricity indirectly tend to pull natural gas prices down.
Figure 6. Natural gas prices in the US and Canada, indexed to the 2008 price, based on annual price data provided in BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017.
Many people assume that fracking can be done so inexpensively that the type of downslide in prices shown in Figure 6 makes sense. In fact, the low prices available for natural gas are part of what have been pushing North American “oil and gas” companies toward bankruptcy.
For a while, it looked like high natural gas prices in Europe and Asia might allow the US to export natural gas as LNG, and end its oversupply problem. Unfortunately, overseas prices of natural gas have slid since 2013, making the profitability of such exports doubtful (Figure 7).
Figure 7. Prices of natural gas imports to Europe and Asia, indexed to 2008 levels, based on annual average prices provided by BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017.
Coal prices have followed a downward slope of a different shape since 2008. Note that the 2016 prices range from 32% to 59% below the 2008 level. They are even lower, relative to 2011 prices.
Figure 8. Prices of several types of coal, indexed to 2008 levels, based on annual average prices provided by BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017.
Figure 9 shows the price path for several metals and minerals. These seem to follow a downward path as well. I did not find a price index for rare earth minerals that went back to 2008. Recent data suggested that the prices of these minerals have been falling as well.
Figure 9. Prices of various metals and minerals, indexed to 2008, based on USGS analyses found using this link: https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/
Figure 9 shows that several major metals are down between 24% and 35% since 2008. The drop is even greater, relative to 2011 price levels.
Internationally traded foods have also fallen in price since 2008.
Figure 10. Food prices, indexed to 2008 levels, based on data from the United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization.
In Item [4] above, I listed several factors that would tend to make oil prices fall. These same issues could be expected to cause the prices of these other commodities to drop. In addition, energy products are used in the production of metals and minerals and of foods. A drop in the price of energy products would tend to flow through to lower extraction prices for minerals, and lower costs for growing agricultural products and bringing products to market.
One surprising place where prices are dropping is in the auction prices for the output of onshore wind turbines. This is a chart shown by Roger Andrews, in a recent article on Energy Matters. The cost of making wind turbines doesn’t seem to be dropping dramatically, except from the fall in the prices of commodities used to make the turbines. Yet auction prices seem to be dropping by 20% or more per year.
Figure 11. Figure by Roger Andrews, showing trend in auction prices of onshore wind energy from Energy Matters.
Thus, wind energy purchased through auctions seems to be succumbing to the same deflationary market forces as oil, natural gas, coal, many metals, and food.
[6] It is very hard to see how oil prices can rise significantly, without the prices of many other commodities also rising.
What seems to be happening is a basic mismatch between (a) the amount of goods and services countries want to sell, and (b) the amount of goods and services that are truly affordable by consumers, especially those who are non-elite workers. Somehow, we need to fix this supply/demand (affordability) imbalance.
One way of raising demand is through productivity growth. As mentioned previously, such a rise in productivity growth hasn’t been happening in recent years. Given the falling energy per capita amounts in Figure 2, it seems unlikely that productivity will be growing in the near future, because the adoption of improved technology requires energy consumption.
Another way of raising demand is through wage increases, over and above what would be indicated by productivity growth. With globalization, the trend has been to lower and less stable wages, especially for less educated workers. This is precisely the opposite direction of the change we need, if demand for goods and services is to rise high enough to prevent deflation in commodity prices. There are very many of these non-elite workers. If their wages are low, this tends to reduce demand for homes, cars, motorcycles, and the many other goods that depend on wages of workers in the world. It is the manufacturing and use of these goods that influences demand for commodities.
Another way of increasing demand is through rising investment. This can eventually filter back to higher wages, as well. But this isn’t happening either. In fact, Figures 3 and 4 show that the last big surge in investment was in 2007. Furthermore, the amount of debt growth required to increase GDP by one percentage point has increased dramatically in recent years, both in the United States and China, making this approach to economic growth increasingly less effective. Recent discussions seem to be in the direction of stabilizing or lowering debt levels, rather than raising them. Such changes would tend to lower new investment, not raise it.
[7] In many countries, falling export revenue is adversely affecting demand for imported goods and services.
It is not too surprising that the export revenue of Saudi Arabia has fallen, with the drop in oil prices.
Figure 12. Saudi Arabia exports and imports of goods and services based on World Bank data.
Because of the drop in exports, Saudi Arabia is now buying fewer imported goods and services. A person would expect other oil exporters also to be making cutbacks on their purchases of imported goods and services. (Exports in current US$ means exports measured year-by-year in US$, without any inflation adjustment.)
It is somewhat more surprising that China’s exports and imports are falling, as measured in US$. Figure 13 shows that, in US dollar terms, China’s exports of goods and services fell in both 2015 and 2016. The imports that China bought also fell, in both of these years.
Figure 13. China’s exports and imports of goods and services on a current US$ basis, based on World Bank data.
Similarly, both the exports and imports of India are down as well. In fact, India’s imports have fallen more than its exports, and for a longer period–since 2012.
Figure 14. India’s exports and imports of goods and services in current dollars, based on World Bank data.
The imports of goods and services for the United States also fell in 2015 and 2016. The US is both an exporter of commodities (particularly food and refined petroleum products) and an importer of crude oil, so this is not surprising.
Figure 15. US exports and imports of goods and services in US dollars, based on World Bank data.
In fact, on a world basis, exports and imports of goods and services both fell, in 2015 and 2016 as measured in US dollars.
Figure 16. World exports and imports in current US dollars, based on World Bank data.
[8] Once export (and import) revenues are down, it becomes increasingly difficult to raise prices again.
If a country is not selling much of its own exports, it becomes very difficult to buy much of anyone else’s exports. This impetus, by itself, tends to keep prices of commodities, including oil, down.
Furthermore, it becomes more difficult to repay debt, especially debt that is in a currency that has appreciated. This means that borrowing additional debt becomes less and less feasible, as well. Thus, new investment becomes more difficult. This further tends to keep prices down. In fact, it tends to make prices fall, since new investment is needed to keep prices level.
[9] World financial leaders in developed countries do not understand what is happening, because they have written off commodities as “unimportant” and “something that lesser-developed countries deal with.”
In the US, few consumers are concerned about the price of corn. Instead, they are interested in the price of a box of corn flakes, or the price of corn tortillas in a restaurant.
The US, Europe and Japan specialize in high “value added” goods and services. For example, in the case of a box of corn flakes, manufacturers are involved in many steps such as (a) making corn flakes from corn, (b) boxing corn flakes in attractive boxes, (c) delivering those boxes to grocers’ shelves, and (d) advertising those corn flakes to prospective consumers. These costs generally do not decrease, as commodity prices decrease. One article from 2009 says, “With the record seven-dollar corn this summer, the cost of the corn in an 18-ounce box of corn flakes was only 14 cents.”
Because of the small role that commodity prices seem to play in producing the goods and services of developed countries, it is easy for financial leaders to overlook price indications at the commodity level. (Data is available at this level of detail; the question is how closely it is examined by decision-makers.)
Figure 17. Various indices within US CPI Urban, displayed on a basis similar to that used in Figure 7 through 11. In other words, index values for later periods are compared to the average 2008 index value. CPI statistics are from US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 17 shows some components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on a basis similar to the trends in commodity prices shown in Figures 7 through 11. The category “Household furnishings and operations” was chosen because it has furniture in it, and I know that furniture prices have fallen because of the growing use of cheap imported furniture from China. This category shows a slight downslope in prices. The other categories all show small increases over time. If commodity prices had not decreased, prices of the other categories would likely have increased to a greater extent than they did during the period shown.
[10] Conclusion. We are likely kidding ourselves, if we think that oil prices can rise in the future, for very long, by a very large amount.
It is quite possible that oil prices will bounce back up to $80 or even $100 per barrel, for a short time. But if they rise very high, for very long, there will be adverse impacts on other segments of the economy. We can’t expect that wages will go up at the same time, so increases in oil prices are likely to lead to a decrease in the purchase of discretionary products such as meals eaten in restaurants, charitable contributions, and vacation travel. These cutbacks, in turn, can be expected to lead to layoffs in discretionary sectors. Laid off workers are likely to have difficulty repaying their loans. As a result, we are likely to head back into a recession.
As we have seen above, it is not only oil prices that need to rise; it is many other prices that need to rise as well. Making a change of this magnitude is almost certainly impossible, without “crashing” the economy.
Economists put together a simplified view of how they thought supply and demand works. This simple model seems to work, at least reasonably well, when we are away from limits. What economists did not realize is that the limits we are facing are really affordability limits, and that growing affordability depends upon productivity growth. Productivity growth in turn depends on a growing quantity of cheap-to-produce energy supplies. The term “demand,” and the two-dimensional supply-demand model, hide these issues.
The whole issue of limits has not been well understood. Peak Oil enthusiasts assumed that we were “running out” of an essential energy product. When this view was combined with the economist’s view of supply and demand, the conclusion was, “Of course, oil prices will rise, to fix the situation.”
Few stopped to realize that there is a second way of viewing the situation. What is falling is the resources that people need to have in order to have jobs that pay well. When this happens, we should expect prices to fall, rather than to rise, because workers are increasingly unable to buy the output of the economy.
If we look back at what happened historically, there have been many situations in which economies have collapsed. In fact, this is probably what we should expect as we approach limits, rather than expecting high oil prices. If collapse should take place, we should expect widespread debt defaults and major problems with the financial system. Governments are likely to have trouble collecting enough taxes, and may ultimately fail. Non-elite workers have historically come out badly in collapses. With low wages and high taxes, they have often succumbed to epidemics. We have our own epidemic now–the opioid epidemic.
Just when everything seemed OK. This happens.
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Super-Critical-Coal-Shortage-Sends-India-Scrambling-For-NatGas.html
Coal might be the sleeper.
Interesting: “With ten major power plants classified as “critical”, with less than seven days of coal stocks — and five of those being “super critical” with less than four days of coal supply.” Sounds pretty dire to me. WOW.
I thought coal was in low demand so the supply was high and price depressed. So where’s all that extra coal for India?
They allow coal stocks to run that low? Incredible!
If hydroelectric is not available because of too little water, they have to do something. They will keep going with coal until they literally “run out.” India runs up a lot of debt with all of their imported fuels.
Coal is by far India’s major type of fuel. But India is a coal importer, amounting to something like 25% of its total consumption. It is also raising its own coal production. India also is an importer of natural gas and oil.
I can imagine that the artificially low oil prices are helping India’s economy. The low natural gas prices are helpful as well. If the prices go up, by very much, it seems like India will have a problem. They are importing more than they are exporting. This will get a lot worse, if fossil fuel prices go up.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-13/real-male-earnings-still-below-1973-level-household-income-gains-entirely-due-rising
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-14/despite-hope-higher-incomes-real-wage-growth-plunges-august
Britain goes nuclear
http://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2017/09/11/britain-goes-nuclear/
“SMRs will be even more competitive if, as expected, the government’s energy reviewer, Oxford University professor Dieter Helm, recommends that intermittency costs be included in the price of electricity from renewable sources like wind and solar. Indeed, were the government to adopt that policy, renewable energy companies would be obliged to purchase baseload electricity from new nuclear operators.”
“SMRs will no doubt be touted by both government and the mainstream media as leading-edge technologies. For example, in a Forbes article about NuScale – the company that developed the first SMR – James Conca writes:
“This nuclear reactor is something that we’ve never seen before – a small modular reactor that is economic, factory built and shippable, flexible enough to desalinate seawater, refine oil, load-follow wind, produce hydrogen, modular to make the power plant any size, and that provides something we’ve all been waiting for – a reactor that cannot meltdown.””
“Of course, there is still that niggling problem of waste disposal. Less obviously, global uranium production is expected to peak in the mid-2030s (much sooner if nuclear power is used to replace fossil fuels). “
If a man walks in the woods for love of them half of each day, he is in danger of being regarded as a loafer. But if he spends his days as a speculator, shearing off those woods and making the earth bald before her time, he is deemed an industrious and enterprising citizen. Henry David Thoreau
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/h/henrydavid108148.html
Nice observation by Thoreau. Lots of pressure to join the rat race by others that are stuck in the endless cycle of consumption. No respect for or, time to appreciate nature.
https://memeguy.com/photos/images/the-rat-race-74009.jpg
Arbeit macht frei
I remember my time as a commuter rat working at the Guardian, standing on the platform for the 7.30 train to London with all the other rats clutching our expensive coffees and praying I could get a seat…..
Now, I can loaf in the woods any time I please. It’s great being a bum. 🙂
Remember this golden oldie?
https://youtu.be/HG7woCQkGUw
Things never change, do they?
Maybe the spiritual lesson from all of this will go down in history that comfort, convenience and vanity were never very good goals to begin with. Not surprising the earliest marketing appealed to love of ones family – wanting products to help your children or family have more comfortable lives. I’m no marketer, but at some point I guess it seemed like “there is so much wealth to go around, so surely I deserve my share” forgetting perhaps that it was never stuff that made us happy, but the relatioships that goods and services once helped improve. Not trying to be preachy!
I don’t see it as preaching as much as it is acknowledging our predicament. There are not very many places on the internet where you can get real, honest information. This site is one. It helps one regain perspective about where we are with respect to where we should be with regards to our resource base. Folks like Thoreau and Mark Twain among others help us reflect on reality.
Too true – In the play Harvey, Elwood P. Dowd says that he struggled with reality all his life and finally overcame it. I think we shall not be so lucky!
Every living creature above a certain level tries to be comfortable and safe in it’s own way.
Our search for comfort has simply gone beyond the bounds set by the ecosystem.
In Spain,some people still talk about ‘English comfort’ which is carpets and padded sofas, uncommon in Spain until comparatively recently, certainly for the mass of people – it was all stone floors and hard wooden seats.
You may be right, unfortunately. It’s our nature – like the scorpion and the frog – to overshoot our limits. As Ron patterson pointed out:
“Our future is locked in, it is in our genes. We will behave, in the future exactly as we have behaved in the past. We will act according to the dictates of our DNA. We will continue to consume our natural resources like a drunken sailor going through his rich uncle’s inheritance. And we will continue to be optimistic, we will continue to believe that fossil fuels will last forever, or at least until “something else comes along”.
But they will all decline, taper off until none is economically recoverable anymore. The first to go will be crude oil, then natural gas and finally coal. Crude oil will peak in this decade and be almost completely gone by the end of the first half of this century. Then natural gas and coal will go in the second half.
We will not hear warnings of impending disaster and act. We will wait until the disaster is upon us then react. It is simply in our nature to behave in such a manner. And then we will eat the birds out of the trees. [6]”
http://peakoilbarrel.com/fossil-fuels-human-destiny/
‘We will not hear warnings of impending disaster and act.’
We might have taken action before our overshoot became to extreme …. let’s say before the turn of the 19th century….. or most definitely before the Green Revolution and the Nuclear Age….
We could have collectively voted to stop Living Large… and returned to our hunter gatherer ways…
Obviously this would have lead to a massive cull of the population —- because even back then most people did not know how to hunt or gather…. perhaps we could have transitioned with schools teaching kids hunting and gathering skills….
We could have killed all farmers …. because if they were allowed to live they would have tried to put us back on the treadmill to hell… (sorry Scott Nearing…. but you were part of the problem…)
But once we hit the twin tipping points of massive population and spent fuel ponds… our fate was sealed…almost certain extinction.
7.5B people will kill and eat everything on the planet in short order — ensuring starvation for virtually the entire species… spent fuel ponds provide the coup de grace.
Therefore the only action that makes sense is to burn more coal … buy more stuff…. do whatever it takes… to keep the system from collapsing …. because the collapse will be total.
Nobody gets out alive.
https://blog.dssresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/world_population_1050_to_2050.jpg
Blue paint dumped on iconic Wall Street bull’s head
https://apnews.com/278e1c964dcf40f78a7bcf2c8b754490?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP
US shale oil and gas investors are on a ‘road to ruin,’ warns Jim Chanos-NBC NEWS
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/13/us-shale-oil-and-gas-investors-are-on-road-to-ruin-warns-jim-chanos.html
Ahh but it is a great ride til the end:
https://media.giphy.com/media/5Q4GDOdmjY7Bu/source.gif
http://www.wikiscreenplay.ca/images/c/c0/Canyon.jpg
I love this:
“The way to think about it is that unlike other businesses, your assets literally get burned up” – isn’t that true with all energy “assets”! And most assets that matter today are created by burning fuel? No?
Ultimately you are correct. The difference with say (1) a fishing boat, and (2) a combine tractor, dispite the fact that both fishing stocks and soil tend to get degraded, is that it’s obvious that oil reserves are quickly degraded. Both the fisherman and farmer may be surprised that their resource base degraded over time. The oilmen are not surprised – onley their investors are!
Here’s how much money Americans have in their savings accounts-NBC NEWS
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/13/how-much-americans-at-have-in-their-savings-accounts.html
Remember folks, you get the best science money can buy. Kind of an extension of “you get the best politicians money can buy”.
All of these researchers need money to live. They need promotions. They have to produce papers in subject areas where the government and others are handing out grants. They have to write stories that go along with the popular thinking that everyone wants to hear, or the articles won’t pass peer review.
“The pace of China’s economic expansion unexpectedly cooled further last month after a lackluster July, as factory output, investment and retail sales all slowed.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-14/china-s-economy-cools-again-as-industry-retail-investment-slow
I love it – “unexpectedly cooled” HAHAHAHA.
Easily fixed…. just build more shi t that is not needed.
The expectations were incredibly high–perhaps because exports aren’t doing well–at least through last years. The domestic market needs to be very high to offset.
Patrick Moore – clearly a man of enormous integrity:
And Alex Epstein actually agrees that CO2 causes A G W: “If we look at what has been scientifically demonstrated vs. what has been speculated, the c l i ma t e impact of CO2 is real,” but he then describes it as “mild and manageable.”
He also says, “Nature doesn’t give us a stable, safe c l i m a t e that we make dangerous. It gives us an ever-changing, dangerous c l i m a t e that we need to make safe. And the driver behind sturdy buildings, affordable heating and air-conditioning, drought relief and everything else that keeps us safe from c l i m a t e is cheap, plentiful, reliable energy, overwhelmingly from fossil fuels.”
Which is actually a sentiment that most of us on OFW can probably get behind, albeit with the caveat that those fossil fuels are getting less cheap and plentiful. Go, Alex, you sleazy hustler!
Only from the point of view of maintaining civilisation, though, which I am far from convinced is entirely desirable.
Nomads do not need fossil fuel: they need the goat, camel, sheep, horse, dogs,and their sinews, bones, meat, hairs and wool. And in the case of dogs: damn sharp teeth….
And dung=fire=warmth and safety.
Nomads are not civilization. Also nomads are dependent on the civilization. They can not exist without the civilization, i.e. some stable points where they can return or have support from.
Right!
325 ppm CO2 in 1965. It will be 500 ppm in 2065, at least. I know industrial society will collapse long before 2065, but let’s assume it didn’t. Think a 50% increase in CO2 in 100 years is a splendid idea?
This is not a good topic to discuss. As a practical matter, we don’t have any way to change the CO2 in the atmosphere. We can have fewer children ourselves, but we cannot compel others to have fewer children. We can eat vegetarian food, but others will still eat meat. Wind and solar get us absolutely nowhere. The economy will collapse, if we just cut off fossil fuels.
“mild and manageable.”
++++++++++++++++
If I were to guess…. the biggest impact we make on the planet comes from cutting down forests to convert the land to farming….so we can lead The Good Life.
Farming was the beginning of the end of us in so many ways.
Scott Nearing — are you rolling over in your grave having read that comment?
Look at what Greenpeace has to say about him … of course they would … they’d do the same to Al Gore if he stopped participating in the hoax http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/news/greenpeace-statement-on-patric/
Rather interesting — Patrick has changed his mind on virtually all the things that I have changed my mind on …
I love Monsanto — and coal — living large —- and anything else that keeps BAU alive
I am against anything that threatens BAU — thing such as socalled renewable energy – EVs…. calls for population control
I fully support sinking of all Greenpeace vessels. Shooting all activists in the head — in fact I would be happy to pay for the bullets.
I could easily be Patrick Moore — we are both Canadians…..
That was Patrick’s Monty Burns moment.
https://youtu.be/tGm5A868kHY
Round up and other Monsanto chemicals — and the green revolution … are what keep the world fed…. if the Green Groopies had their way (and I was once violently anti Round Up)….. we would be paying $10 for an apple…
Mr Moore obviously understands this …. the last thing we want is for people to demand a ban on these chemicals….
A little cancer with your salad? Small price to pay….
Looks like we are finding the finite world of food production sooner than later…
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/09/in-10-years-the-world-may-not-be-able-to-feed-itself?utm_content=buffer2bf99&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer
To quote:
Sara Menker, founder and chief executive of Gro Intelligence, an agricultural data technology company, said…some solutions to avert the oncoming crisis: reform the agricultural industries in Africa and India by changing how farmers farm, how people buy and consume food, decrease food waste, improve infrastructure, and increase farm yields exponentially.
This is all wishful thinking. It sounds like she just rattled off whatever came to her head. These “solutions” also sound like a Trojan Horse for Monsanto to extend its evil stranglehold further around the globe.
Besides, if we were to say “increase farm yields exponentially”, as we did during the Green Revolution, when the world’s population really exploded, what do we do for an encore?
A complete dill.
How about saying instead, “Adding a lot of fossil fuels to the process.” This is what is needed for refrigeration, and to increase yields exponentially.
Like I said, people are generally dense. In this case we have a bright person, who understands her discipline well, but is unable, or unwilling to connect the dots, or see the bigger picture.
Monsanto is saving us from the Malthusian nightmare….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug
Hero
https://media1.britannica.com/eb-media/50/136250-004-46BB7BC1.jpg
Norman is the reason all of us are alive.
I guess in a twisted sort of a way. For now.
There is a paradox….. Norman and Monsanto have kept us fed … and prevented BAU from collapsing … but they allowed our population overshoot to grow so massive …. that we are almost certain to go extinct when BAU goes down…
Love hate….
For some reason I am hearing the voice of Al Bartlett and have images of yeast in a jar stuck in my head.
http://www.stephenbolwell.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EXPO-FIX_1-copy.jpg
https://sites.google.com/a/underwoodschools.org/mr-bachman-s-website/_/rsrc/1299530547067/classroom-content/graded-work/chapter-8-exponential-and-logarithmic-functions/8-1-exponential-growth/World%20Population%20Growth.gif
I have a few questions. Why can’t people eat what they have been eating in the past? It is not like they will be healthier for eating a “western diet.” And I thought that India, China, and Africa already have over half of the world population. They seem to, based on US population estimates as of 2015.
++++++++++
In many parts of the world, the local diet often left people with nutrition deficiencies. Malnutrition is common in agrarian societies because of the reliance on a smaller number of crops for food.
In the Limits to Growth book, the authors had graphs stating that most people from India, asia, and Africa weren’t getting enough protein in their diets.
Adopting a Western diet is appealing because
1) More food
2)More colories
3) more nutrition
4) Tastes better than what might be available locally. One of the reasons why other people around the world don’t overeat is because the locally available food doesn’t taste that good. It has a lot less salt, fat, or sugar. There is no recreational eating. There are no “foodies”.
Adopting a Western diet is a good idea if the only other option is a deficient local diet.
Unfortunately, when non-Western people adopt a Western diet, they go overboard, unable to distinguish real food from junk food. They gorge.
http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/88/2/10-020210/en/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-nuclear-test-maybe-have-been-twice-as-strong-as-first-thought/2017/09/13/19b026d8-985b-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html?utm_term=.105be6dca53e
“Estimates of the bomb’s yield, or the amount of energy released by the blast, have ranged from South Korea’s 50 kilotons to Japan’s 160 kilotons, although some analysts have said the 6.3 magnitude of the earthquake caused by the detonation could put it into the “hundreds of kilotons.” This would put it into the realm of thermonuclear weapons, supporting North Korea’s claim that it had tested a hydrogen bomb.
In comparison, the bomb detonated over Hiroshima in 1945 released about 15 kilotons of energy.
Updated seismic data showed the magnitude of the resulting earthquake was greater than initial estimates — between 6.1 and 6.3. That means the yield of the latest test was roughly 250 kilotons, reported 38 North’s Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu.”
I’m a little confused about something. Let’s say there’s an earthquake in Chile or Italy – don’t we know from various seismic measuring stations around the world what the magnitude of the earthquake was in say 1/2 an hour? So now NK detonates a nuclear bomb and the magnitude of the earthquake it caused is only now being fully understood?! Do you see the dilemma here? Either some high up military experts didn’t want us to really know the full power of NK’s latest underground detonation or seismology is still in its infancy or math has gotten fuzzy.
250 kiloton yield is a thermo-nuclear detonation it is 16.6 times as powerful as the bomb that flattened Hiroshima. If NK really has H-Bomb’s and ICBM’s, although the latter are still in progress for longer distance, and they have miniaturized the warhead, then we probably would be much better off making friends with the NK than enemy’s. That kind of yield is quite dangerous.
As a side note, did you know that the famous above ground test by the Russians, nick named Tsar Tomba was done by sandwiching layers of different radioactive elements, and that they realized it would be so powerful it would rain down fallout throughout the world as designed. So they substituted lead for certain layers to reduce the yield in half and the fallout remained in the region. The difference was that being half as powerful the mushroom cloud did not go as far ‘up’ into the atmosphere, so it didn’t get carried by the jet stream around the world. But one has to wonder if that change had not occurred, how many people would have died of cancer.
And that’s my happy good night story before toddling off to slumberland. ZZZZZZZZZZZ……….
Washington Post. Is that the MSM you savagely condemn others for reading?
Typical of deniers and conspiracy nuts, cherry pick an article that agrees with their totally unqualified opinion then post it as being gospel and at the same time, completely ignore the thousands of papers written by qualified scientists that contradict their opinions.
This is outstanding
Kinda leaves me with a sick feeling to watch this….
And still the MH17 blackbox data has not been made public,just trust us the Russians were responsible.
To paraphrase Tacitus: ‘They created devastation, and called it expansion of the EU.
The films of Right-wing Ultra-Slav training camps (‘for warriors’) in the Ukraine are alarming and very disturbing to watch.
Roaming militias, big bosses, boy soldiers: no different to a failed state in Africa.
I saw a reference to the holding camps for refugees in Libya being ‘like concentration camps’, maybe exaggerated, who knows what is really happening?
Still, Junker and his chums had a nice lunch and a glass or two of something decent before he gave his speech on the splendid future that awaits the European Union.
All is well.
i dont think all this debate on climate change on whether its real or not means anything its the end of easy oil that is occurring and that will most certainly lead to a die-off of the human population in what capacity will the human race carry on or not carry on is all we can entertain ourselves with
I am with Adonis.
http://euanmearns.com/adjusting-measurements-to-match-the-models-part-3-lower-troposphere-satellite-temperatures/
“Overall the models show that gre enhouse gas es have had considerably less impact on temperatures than A G W theory says they should have had.”
To summarize…. the models were wrong …. and in some instances the results were adjusted (faked) ….. because the kkklimate was not significantly wa rming.
The takeaway is — geeeble deeble so far has not played out as expected —- we are not roasting — we will not likely be roasting soon … if ever
And that should be a big fat relief for those who were fretting over this.
Now that this has been cleared up we can focus on the real and present danger to each an everyone one of us —- the end of BAU due to the depletion of cheap to extract oil…
And our imminent death by starvation – disease – violence and radiation poisoning….
What you say — I am being far too negative????
You would rather talk about geeble ddeeble — solar panels – windmills — and Tesla???
Recall from Madmen Don Draper says — when you don’t like what is being discussed —- change the conversation ….
Don has done a stellar job on these issues — nobody is talking about imminent suffering and death. They are too busy with ggeeb deeble solar panels and the latest mega money loser from tesla.
“Listen, don’t mention A G W! I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it all right!”
http://www.thefawltytowersguide.co.uk/basil.jpg
Basil Fawlty v FE Challenge: who would you bet on? 🙂
The whole issue is very complex. Climate researchers do an awfully lot of “adjustments” to the historical data. They also know what their models predict. There is a temptation to adjust the historical data to better match what their models claim is happening. Roger Andrews shows actual historical data in this post–actually series of three posts on Euan Mearn’s site–and indicates that there seem to be several adjustments that seem to make the data better fit the theory.
Many people have heard about the Climatic Research Unit email controversy, also known as “Climategate.” Several of the comments to Euan’s article relate to the difficulty that researchers showing alternative views of historical temperature patterns have in getting their papers published in journals. So the controversy over what the correct historical data is goes on and on.
It is not just the historical data that is not entirely agreed to. There are also questions about what variables are important in the model. And of course, there is significant controversy in how much fossil fuels to include in the future. Thus, it would appear that there is a wide range of models that different researchers could come up with. But dictation from the IPCC makes it seem like there is one and only possible understanding of the situation.
There is a lot of pressure to publish in modern science, to get a better position or even to maintain it, e.g., post-tenure review. Dishonest and unethical behavior is especially prevalent in the medical research sciences these days, but it is pervasive. Altering historical data to fit a model’s results is plain dishonest. Usually, those found guilty of such behavior will lose the publication (it will be withdrawn or critically reviewed if already published), lose their position and will eventually be drummed out of science, as no one will hire them. The enforcers in the regard are scientific journal editors and college deans, institute directors, and university or company presidents.
I would have thought the opposite…. the most valued faculty members in universities are those who bring in the most dollars for research …. the way to bring the most dollar is to whore yourself to industries that want bottled results…..
Ability to teach is irrelevant.
I think it varies with the field. With climate and with energy subjects, there is definitely a preferred outcome. All of the grants are written in such a way that the research will be in the selected direction. Those people writing articles know that to pass peer review, their articles will have to fit in with what peer reviewers consider the preferred outcome. The journal editors and academic book publishers add a strong push in the preferred direction as well.
I once asked an author why he did not point out the extremely terrible results he had gotten with respect to the energy cost of solar panels with backup batteries in the conclusion section book he wrote, and he told me that he know the editor would not like that result mentioned. He had earlier told me about a paper in which he downplayed the results, because he didn’t think the paper would pass peer review.
In academic articles, it helps that researches are looking only at tiny pieces of a subject. Even if the overall result is dire, they can avoid mentioning it by looking at only one small piece.
Kinda like how one almost never sees dissenting information regarding renewable energy or EVs in the MSM…
This is all a massive full court press to distract the cattle….
Extremely effective
The academic articles are at least equally biased. The peer review process generally “weeds out” anyone who doesn’t give a happily ever after ending. Or the editors of academic books make it clear that they will not publish anything without a “Happily ever after ending.” I walked away after being told this in so many words.
Musk now targets October to unveil Tesla semi truck
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-truck/musk-now-targets-october-to-unveil-tesla-semi-truck-idUSKCN1BP01N?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=59b9d6ea04d301294836a592&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
“Tesla’s electric big-rig truck could have a working range of 200 to 300 miles to compete with more conventional diesels,” – HAHAHA That is funny. Modern semi-tractor trailers can have up to 4 150 gallon tanks (a lot have 2 tanks) and get about 5MPG (loaded) on the highway (which is where they generally do most of their hauling). So, that is at least 1500 mile range with two tanks That electric truck would need to recharge at least 7 times to go the same distance a conventional semi can go. All that recharging is going to play hell on the battery over the course of the expected 1 million miles the average semi tractor trailer will go in its lifetime. The average tractor trailer goes upwards of 100,000 miles every year! That is 333 recharges every year. I don’t think so Elon.
Back in the 1950s and early 1960s, before the advent of interstate dual-lane highway systems, diesel trucks had a range of a little over 200 miles, because that is how far a driver could go before there was a need for a change of drivers (stop lights through Main Street in every town on the way). I lived in Mauston, Wisconsin. Its main “industry” before the interstates came through in the mid to late 1960s was trucking, because trucks could not go from Chicago to Minneapolis/St. Paul in a single “hop”. A large share of the population was truck drivers. I suppose in a new scenario, a large share of the population could operate electricity recharging stations.
Going to a 200-300 mile range would, in some sense, put us back many years ago. Not quite as bad, but almost.
++++++
While not a fan of EVs, any port will do in a storm.
Yes. And the battery will weigh so much you won’t be able to haul as much stuff as a normal semi truck.
The cars with heavy batteries are not solution, as we move towards a “lighter world”, on the coal – oil – natural gas line. We use more and more plastics instead of metals now. And other light nanomaterials are used more and more, too.
The weight is a key factor that makes electricity vehicles completely obsolete. Everybody talks about increasing the driving range, but what about increasing the driving range per kilogramm of the weight? (Do not forget that we need metal wires for electricity distribution vs. plastic pipes for hydrocarbons…)
And I understand they generally have two drivers on board so can just keep on rolling…
I wonder how long it would take to charge a mega battery on a semi truck.
Let’s not get confused with the facts —- Green Grooopies will always have an answer — in this case it will be ‘but we have to start somewhere — and look at how quickly computer power increased’
Funny thing though — the battery life of laptops has not changed much in years….
Facts… who needs em.
The cheap and light batteries is the problem that no subsidies for buying EVs can change.
1. Oil drives GDP growth
2. Debt is a bet on future GDP growth
3. When the oil finally drops, the GDP goes down
4, When the GDP goes down, the credit goes bad
5. If oil goes down permanently, there will be no future bets on GDP growth (no more credit)
1. Cheap oil drives GDP growth
2. Increasing debt serves to maintain oil production along with consumer demand.
3. When consumer demand (market) falls despite increasing debt, GDP decreases.
4. Decreasing GDP, rising unemployment, debt defaults, bank failures, stock market crash.
5. Oil down permanently…..
6. The end.
Bitcoin below $4,000. It’s a buying opportunity!
https://www.amazon.com/Gold-Bitcoin-Commemorative-Round-Collectors/dp/B00J2B0KEO/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1505355912&sr=8-2&keywords=bitcoin
Just a little ‘Bit’ at a time though!!
Mmm, a ponzi currency on the downswing – tempting! [sarc]
This is a must read!
http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/09/13/food-nutrients-carbon-dioxide-000511?lo=ap_a1
“… iron and zinc.”
daily multivitamin.
Never been a fan of multivitamins; always believed that most things that aren’t eaten fresh and in natures original form are merely leftovers. Witness the rapid decline of Vit C in fruit etc once harvested. Some seem to have a half-life of only hours..?
Maybe I am fussy because I still have access to real food (grow a reasonable amount of my own) and believe that feeding plants well means feeding ourselves well.
Looking for food in a supermarket is like looking for health in a medical facility.
Let medicine be your food etc etc.
Just my opinion…
Like the supermarket ‘organic’ apple I tossed into the compost heap, along with some of my own.
They decayed rapidly, while the supermarket apple just kept on bobbing up for weeks, slightly soft but still fully intact!
I began to wonder whether I should get on my knees and worship it as The Undying One.
I just don’t eat fruit that I haven’y picked myself now, apart from a few English cherries in season. And enjoy it more for having to wait.
Lol at you and your unnervingly prolonged supermarket-apple, Xabier! I’m sure humans have worshipped stranger things…
Yes, I watched a package of hamburger rolls sit on the counter for two months just to see if they would mold. They did not… Scary…I finally put them in the compost.
I wonder what chemical they are adding to bread to keep it from molding? It used to mold within a week. I’m sure it’s a “harmless additive” approved by the FDA (snort)…
I suppose this is why there are no longer any commercial bakery stores that sell day old goods. They don’t need them since the product lasts forever now.
282 is the preservative. Calcium propionate. It stops mold growth. It has bad side-effects on people causing numerous things like itchiness, burning sensations, emotional imbalances and many more. I am very susceptible to it. Can also have 202 in it which is potassium sorbate which can cause similar issues.
Maybe thats why pest and disease problems increasing as well; more sugars and fewer protective proteins in the plants?
could be the smoking gun for bee deaths
amazing peak nutrients
I can’t speak for the science, but the article is BS. No mention of oxygen for the roots? No mention of the growing medium? The plants can’t “breath” extra CO2 if they aren’t getting extra oxygen to the roots. This reeks of agenda IMO.
snorp
I agree that the findings are far from comprehensive. But it wouldn’t be surprising if plants grown in enriched CO2 (all other factors being equal) contained less trace minerals simply because they grow significantly faster and larger.
There is a hypothesis that agriculture was not practiced during the Ice Age mainly because the CO2 content of the air was so low (180 ~ 220 ppm) that plant growth was very sluggish, and so it would have made little sense to go to the effort of trying to cultivate anything. If modern humans date back about 200,000 years, they would have spent 90% of their evolutionary history under ice age conditions. The last 10,000 years of relatively higher CO2 along with relatively warmer, wetter weather, provided an opportunity to obtain much greater crop yields and by 10,000 years ago our ancestors in various places had reached a high enough technical level and population density to be able to exploit this opportunity. That is what drove first the development of agriculture and then the rise of civilization.
Along with our fellow primates, we humans lack the ability to synthesize vitamin C. Perhaps this is because we’ve spent millions of years as gatherers and consumers of raw wild fruit and berries that contain huge amounts of vitamin C and other antioxidants to protect themselves against the effects of ultraviolet light, and with this superabundance of vitamin C in the diet, we had no need to synthesize it, so over the course of natural selection (or act of God if you prefer) we lost the ability to do so. Moving to agriculture eventually gave us a very different diet with a lot less vitamin C and other goodies in it, and moving to industrial agriculture practiced on soils depleted of vital minerals and processed food has exacerbated this situation.
I personally take 5 to 10 grams of vitamin C supplement every day, along with a whole alphabet of other helpful and essential vitamins, minerals and antioxidants. Without their help, I would no long be able to leap tall buildings at a single bound, etc., etc. My ambition is to live actively well into my nineties sustained by supplements just like Linus Pauling did, and then to die as he did, by choking on a multivitamin tablet.
LOL!
🙂
“One month after Tesla’s veteran battery technology direct, Kurt Kelty, left the company to “explore new opportunities”, another veteran employee has unexpectedly departed the carmaker: on Wednesday, Tesla said that long-time executive Diarmuid O‘Connell, vice president of business development, had left after 11 years with the company (after a prior stint as the State Department’s Chief of Staff on Political Military Affairs),”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-13/teslas-head-business-development-leaves-after-11-years-spend-more-time-family
How does one go from Chief of Staff on Political and Military Affairs to VP of Business Development of an auto company?
One doesn’t.
But then of course Tesla is not a car company — it is a fake company — it was created by the El ders —- as a distraction from the real problems at hand….
And fake companies are bureaucracies… and bureaucracies require bureaucrats.
‘Spend more time with my family’ — where have we heard that before …. of course John Key…
O’Connell would no doubt be an insider aware of ‘Operation Hopium’ — the massive campaign to distract the sheeple from the imminent end of the world…
The fact that he is walking away …. might be an indication that the end is getting very near….
Tesla is eliminating dozens of positions at its SolarCity office in Northern California
https://amp-businessinsider com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.businessinsider.com/solarcity-layoffs-tesla-solarcity-roseville-elon-musk-2017-9
This may be a better link. http://www.businessinsider.com/solarcity-layoffs-tesla-solarcity-roseville-elon-musk-2017-9
The article talks about integration of Solar City with Tesla as being the cause. It also mentions, “The [solar panel market of Solar City] market is forecast to decline by about 17% for the year, thanks in part to weaker residential demand.” So that may be part of the story as well.
Florida’s lights before Irma…
https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/florida-before.png?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0
And after…
https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/florida-after.png?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0
Hurricane Irma: The Aftermath
The photos of the lights before and after Irma show how much electricity is out.
Even in Georgia, where I am, there have been a lot of power outages. One report in the paper said that 22% of Georgian’s were without power, presumably on Tuesday evening. Most of the Atlanta area school districts did not have school today, because too many schools were still without electricity. The area where I live (Cobb County) was hit less hard than most of the Atlanta area. Schools did operate here today, and stores were generally open. Our household only lost power briefly once–during the night, on Monday night. We could tell because the dishwasher did not run, and clocks without backup needed to be reset.
https://medium.com/@GeeeBee/living-on-credit-the-10-the-remainder-129a33d9c5c2
Interesting summary and predictions; apparently the solutions are next. I keenly await!
I don’t know. I’m just not feeling the usual ofw energy. Maybe it’s the weather or something.
oh no!
could this be Peak OFW?
is there any way to get more than conventional OFW resources?
can OFW somehow be fracked?
or is the decline in net OFW energy now a permanent situation?
We will print some more!!
The printers are on order; 3-D of course!
One of my friends posted this on FB….Solutions…LOL
These things are not really feasible. It is nice to think we could do it, if we all worked together, but we really can’t. I didn’t get all the way through the video, but I could see that the permaculture piece very much depends on fossil fuels.
It we not easy for the self-organized systems of the past to build up. We cannot expect to put together a few pieces, and expect the system to really work.
It is so evident we need growth to continue on forward. The more you understand this the more evident it becomes. For example, there is an article in a computer magazine i get that talks about Apple and how there iPhone sales growth has peaked. And the article goes on to show how Apple needs to grow into other venues like self driving cars to continue growing. It is so crazy. When thousands become millions and millions become billions of dollars of sales, one must keep growing.
Same with medical companies, including drug companies. How are people supposed to buy more and more drugs?
Efficiency would seem to mean the need to spend less and less. Something is wrong here.
The video uses different colored visuals and some kind of hypnotic music to lull the viewer into thinking all will be well IF this, that and the other take place. Good luck with that in a world that shifts into chaos in which events are random, violent and destructive. For any kind of co-op in which people once again trust one another to occur will need to take place after the die off or at least out of reach of chaos. But really, how do people go from individuals plugged into the matrix of packaged ready food to tilling the soil with a bunch of other people? It takes a long time for food to grow and once up and going and continually planting (provided seeds are available) It’s a huge leap and probably only will work for those that are doing that before, during and after a collapse. They’ve learned to work together, to trust and share without violence or greed and without 24/7 electronically generated entertainment. Those will not be easy traits for people to get in sync with. Let’s face it, we’ve got a whole population of people spoiled on the red pill who don’t know how or want to accept the blue pill.
Maybe the blue and red pill are the other way around, but you get the drift.
Couldn’t agree more though I think governments will introduce some form of draconian martial law as a last resort.To many unknown unknowns though none pleasant.
” I think governments will introduce some form of draconian martial law” – That has already happened in the US.
Yep….
http://d39ya49a1fwv14.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/253301-occupy-wall-street-march-protests-in-new-york.jpg
Let’s take a look at Zucotti Park…
http://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/lg/public/2011/11/16/191196-a-sign-is-seen-at-an-almost.jpg
What helps people to work together in a low-energy environment is tradition,
We have, by and large, destroyed our traditions of communal life, and lack deities and priests to keep us in awe.
Even the, one only has to look at the Norse Sagas to see how violence and ambition are always present. in such communities. Not to mention slavery with death as the usual punishment for any disobedience.
I did read an interesting article about the use of black magic curses to keep Nigerian slave prostitutes at work in Europe -too terrified to disobey the gangs, afraid to run away because the curse would follow them.
Yes, tradition and the order that tradition provides are very important in keeping societies together.
It is sort of like when a piece of iron is magnetized, and the electrons line up in one direction. The result provides more “power” than if there is no particular order. There needs to be a high point in the arrangement. It helps earthly rulers to have some sort of heavenly rulers to back them up.
There was an article in the WSJ last weekend on why the Chinese school system is so effective (at least in some ways). https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-american-students-need-chinese-schools-1504882481
One of the things that is expected is that the parents “line up” with what the teachers expect. In an example given in the story, a three year old refused to eat eggs. The teacher demonstrated to the parents that they should take a piece of egg, and force it into the child’s mouth. That is what the teacher would do; the parents needed to do that at home, as well.
In another example, children were asked to draw a picture with rain. The teacher illustrated that rain drops are round. No other shapes were permitted. Rain couldn’t blow sideways, for example. Papers that were done wrong were hung up as examples of how not to draw rain.
The view is that with enough work, any child can master any subject. This is a “plus” of the system. The downside is that independent thinking is not encouraged.
“It’s a huge leap and probably only will work for those that are doing that before, during and after a collapse.”
What I see as happening if everybody drifts along without resistance is so horrible that it’s better either to kill yourself now or try to steer toward a better outcome. Day and night without ceasing. I also see it as pointless for individuals to believe they can be holdouts in a post collapse world. Some posters on FW have repeatedly explained why. Everybody is now part of the network (matrix?) There are no exceptions. One might even be excused for clutching at straws. In the latter vein, the Charlie Rose show from yesterday might shine some light. There are stirrings of bipartisan resolve. And Bannon (sp) made sense on quite a few points.
Laudable sentiments, but a bit too late. We are already deep into overshoot and people, especially in the West, have forgotten what it’s like to live naturally, or frugally. Everything, every place, and everyone will be overwhelmed, when the system finally collapses. That’s the nature of a population crash.
What comes after is for other generations to determine, through trial, error and evolution. Ours will be totally consumed.
Just nonsense as far as private-enterprise ‘transition’ goes.
For as long as BAU runs it will coerce people into full participation: eg. ever-rising property and other taxes for which you need money, zoning laws, forced-labour, etc.
See Western Rome: people didn’t transition into the post-Imperial era, they rebelled, were cut down or ran into the mountains or marshes as bandits.
In Western Europe, there is a whole layer of ash in most settled areas which are witness not to barbarian invasions, but the earlier repression of the masses by the Roman state as it struggled to survive.
The Romans in this period moved a whole legion form Britain to the Pyrenees (hence we are meant to have some legionary blood, as they reputedly killed all the men and gave their women to the soldiers) to put down the disorder: it was a legend some 700 years later.
Then, one day , no Empire, no legions, just the old road milestones lying in the forest -just uncovered a year or two ago.
An exasperating hunt for gasoline in Florida as Hurricane Irma’s evacuees scramble to come home
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-florida-irma-gasoline-20170912-story.html
Man if there is ever a large scale disruption to our gas supplies we are well and truly f789ed!
Certain hurricane prone states could have emergency fuel pump stations, activated only during times of need.
That’s a great idea actually, otherwise It’s sort of a problem where you need fuel to get fuel…
It just goes to show how much BAU is taken for granted and expected to be the case in perpetuity.
They would need maintained stand-by generators and emergency fuel would need to be changed regularly. So it’s much easier to turn it over by selling it. All in all I doubt it would be cost effective.
Imagine the whole country panicking and filling up with gas, it would take weeks to fill all the storage tanks again.
As soon as gas stations start running out, there is a motivation to fill up early, “in case” you don’t find a gas station with gas, very soon.
I read an article in the paper in the past week, suggesting not letting the tank go below 1/4 tank, because of this issue. I don’t think that the situation is that bad around here, but I expect the road to Florida is still littered with gas stations without gas.
The environment halts UK fracking
http://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2017/09/13/the-environment-halts-uk-fracking/
That is a really good article. We don’t think about sand being a limit factor on fracking. Or fresh water, except in a place that is very dry, like China. We run into all kinds of limits at the same time.
The son of a friend is a researcher into fracking, for the energy companies, at Oxford University.
He did say about a year ago that it is already recognised to be more or less un-viable in Britain, with the North (Lancashire county) being the only possible exception.
So mufor the ‘cheap gas’ promised by the politicians.
It’s probably a dead duck. When will they admit it publicly?
Not soon. Too many details to consider!
Many of the arguments concerning solar power are based on preconceived belief systems. If we are to accurately identify the contribution that solar power can provide to our energy affordability problem, we have to have either hard unbiased data or a working model of a solar factory producing all the components of complete solar systems produced with only solar power. That includes a surplus of power to account for all energy requirements of pre and post production.
Smarter people than myself are hotly debating the theoretical data. I choose not to participate in this debate. Why should I? If I had met the Wright brothers I would not have argued with them about the theoretical possibilities of a flying machine. I would have put the burden of proof on them to build and fly the machine. The debate ended when the plane flew. The plane flew by itself.
Today we have solar powered systems; but they are not, and maybe they can not, fly by themselves.
If the Wright brothers plane flew because it was being towed by Henry Ford’s model T. It would prove nothing. Currently, Solar power systems are being towed by Fossil fuel systems. The burden of proof in this debate is with solar power advocates to provide a working model. In my humble opinion, it’s never going to get off the ground.
That’s a good observation standpoint.
In similar vein, I posted in some detail on Gail’s recent solar/wind article here, that given certain condition one might acknowledge the current status of development and buy the stuff at occasional fire sale prices, relatively speaking. Panels might last more than two decades, quality power electronics and wind setup perhaps beyond a decade, incl. larger batt. pack.
Not meant as systemic solution, obviously and more purely as dirty individualistic-family play. We don’t know the exact sequencing of future events. Such steps for the mid term might turn out to be quite wise, futile or even expediently deadly counter productive, i.e. in scenario of luring – inciting sheer rage of impoverished masses and gov remnants.. Who knows..
Well stated. I agree, solar and wind power are not sources of power in and of themselves. The capture “free” energy but are not free to build. I have not seen any evidence or examples of solar panels and wind turbines kick-starting themselves into existence. Even if one were to use existing solar panels, I have not seen any instances of them building more solar panels. You are right, “renewable energy” just doesn’t scale without fossil fuel subsidy.
It’s rather straightforward …. trillions have been spent on solar …. and a solar package with panels invertor and batteries…. is an energy sink…. far more energy goes into the package than you will ever get out…
This contraption is never going to fly.
And even if it could – this solves nothing.
BAU needs cheap oil to survive.
Solar exists ONLY to calm the cattle. Think about it – what is the first thing out of someone’s mouth when you ask them what will happen when we run out of oil?
Oh by then we will have full on solar energy powering the world.
Well done Don
And if you try to change what they think – for instance you ask how you power a jetliner with solar then just ignore that inconvenient fact
If you have trouble understanding how they can do that … for those of you who are infatuated with the geebal weeble story …. it is the same as when I posted the Euan Mearns research paper that gives strong evidence that the ocean levels of not risen at all.
You just ignore it and continue to think what the MSM wants you to think
Sea water acidity is increasing however and that is not good for the sea creatures with calcium carbonate exoskeletons or shells as it dissolves them.
Yes, but we do have an abundance of jellyfish, which are doing very well.
Have you ever tried jellyfish? Tastes like sh#t, no matter how you spice it up.
oh no…
tastes like chicken.
and I do often enjoy a peanut butter and jellyfish sandwich.
In future, the outer skins of the EAs (Electric Airliners) will be covered in solar cells designed to produce electricity from UV, visible light and IR so they can utilize all that extra GW radiation (millions of Hiroshima bombs worth, or so we are told!) even at night. Obviously, this energy won’t be quite enough to guarentee take off on its own, but provided that all the passenger seats are fitted with bicycle pedal style generators and the plane is equipped with a huge elastic band which is fully wound up using power generated by wind turbines at the airport……
Ha! Yes, rubber band stores energy better than complex batteries.
Well said. Like EVs they just shift pollution from one place to another. If only it (wind and solar) could “fly” as you say.
That is true, EV’s do shift pollution. So many inconvenient truths here.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-middle-class-incomes-reached-highest-ever-level-in-2016-census-bureau-says/2017/09/12/7226905e-97de-11e7-b569-3360011663b4_story.html?utm_term=.bf5234d5647d
Upbeat article on US middle class income and other information. Not sure how accurate it is, but, well, there it is.
Notice they don’t say that the US middle class in now the minority.
Similarly, in the morning JC Juncker (EU & old tax heaven apparatchik) was blasting on all TV channels about today’s wonderful levels of prosperity, growth etc.
Ah, Juncker: through the bottom of his raised glass, everything looks wonderful, I don’t doubt…..
Would you pls. update us on the Catalan situation, is it of some concern that the central govs want to prosecute (and prospectively threaten more) local official who are organizing the plebiscite on separation from Madrid. Or it is just benign situation, excepting nothing out of it..again for now ?
worldof
It’s the same-old same-old, same as for 100 years.
The Catalan nationalists are single-policy fanatics, totally impervious to reason, and most other politicians in Catalonia are forced to go along with it lest they lose their share of votes or other more embarrassing issues are talked about – like the Catalan economy being screwed and fully dependent on trade within Spain and…hahem…. corruption.
I am sure Rajoy would be negotiating if Merkel and the ECB/ EU Commission thought it was a dangerous issue that could blow things up.
He can just ignore it all, stick to the strict terms of the Constitution and, ultimately, prosecute any politicians or officials who participate in the referendum and exclude them from any public employment or office when convicted.
Careers would be ruined, although I suppose the politicians have guarantees from their parties of getting some kind of party office job if they take on the risk. They can just be picked off one by one over the next few years and prosecuted. No need for drama.
There is a very large minority against independence, and Madrid will never recognise the validity of the ‘national self-determination principle’ as against the perpetual unity of the Crown of Spain, not until the state itself no longer functions. But you can’t tell that to a nationalist.
Rajoy would be deposed as conservative (read Francoist) party leader if he allowed a referendum anyway, He has many enemies, above all the little poison-doll S. de Santamaria, all too eager to step into his shoes….
Xabier’s prediction: No change, more useless emotion and distraction, just like Scotland.
Agreed – if it matters to BAU — it will be stopped.
A referendum to decide whether or not Greece was to accept the conditions under which the European Union (EU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) would allow a 50% haircut of Greek debt owed to private creditors was planned to be held in 2011.[1] However, Prime Minister George Papandreou decided to cancel the referendum on 3 November,[2] if the opposition parties vote in favour of the EU deal.[3] The proposed referendum was later cancelled.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_proposed_economy_referendum,_2011
And how’s that Brexit coming along …. just tied it up in the courts…. forever
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-brexit-court-challenge-second-referendum-dr-andrew-watt-a7709136.html
To his “only” credit Jean Claude is supposedly more of a Cognac guy, than whiskey aficionado.. Anyway, one of the affordable yet quality brands went bankrupt recently (“Cesar” by Badel/Made in Croatia), sad times ahead, no cognac, no money, no diesel, no nothing.. lolz..
That’s a very disturbing comment … considering his comment some years ago ‘when it gets really bad you have to lie’
The end must be very near indeed
Yeah I was thinking that myself Eddy
Coincidental to peak in conventional oil?
‘Freedom House reckons that 2013 was the eighth consecutive year in which global freedom declined, and that its forward march peaked around the beginning of the century.”
https://medium.com/@GeeeBee/living-on-credit-the-10-the-remainder-129a33d9c5c2
Further;
‘It does not require much effort to realise that the above situation is already explosive. This is not a matter of ideology or morals (although these are, of course, in play socially). It is a matter of survival for all. The 10%, that is, about 740 million people, live mostly in the older industrialised countries and in the “islands of development” in the so-called “emergents”. In both cases, the 10% are utterly dependent on the 90% (but most of them do not realise this).
https://wolfstreet.com/2017/09/12/the-terrible-facts-about-the-real-earnings-of-men/
Interesting talk by the psychologist Jordan Peterson concerning BAU and human psychology:
Psychology is Junk Science.
Not true, your personality can tell you a lot about what you’re like.
Psychology can be highly informative…
and is exceedingly excellent in comparison to much of Economics.
Astrology gets a few things right too. Amazingly, for instance, your star sign can tell you a lot about what time of year you were born.
Biology has its merits also.
why, it can tell you what species you are.
Seadrill Offshore Driller Files for Bankruptcy in Bid to Shrink Debt Burden
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-12/seadrill-files-bankruptcy-to-shrink-offshore-driller-s-debt-load
It looks like Seadrill plans to continue drilling wells. The hope is that bondholders will extend the terms (hoping that oil prices will rise and fix everything).
Amazing that this can continue.
“Of course” prices will rise again!
Peak oil in Latin America
http://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-latin-america
What struck me was that oil consumption since 2014 was down in these four countries: Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, and Ecuador. In fact, when I look at BP Statistical Review of World Energy, total energy consumption is down since 2014 for these four countries, plus Trinidad & Tobago. All of these countries depend on oil for tax revenue. Brazil is not an oil exporter, of course.
Latin America is on the periphery of the core first world countries.
the early signs of the end of BAU should come from the periphery.
isn’t it like the world is a human body going into hypothermia where the body keeps more heat in its core and the limbs get colder and the smallest extremities – fingers and toes – start to die from frostbite?
the core is mostly Western Europe and the USA, and they will do everything possible to stay alive.
the weakest countries will show the first signs of dying.
Possibly more like diabetes; too much sugar (money printing) resulting in eventual amputation of gangrenous parts to save the core
Good analogy!
This is already happening, even in the core, with places like Greece being quarantined from the system, and put on life support. Other countries like Libya, Syria and Venezuela, also in some arc of their collapse phase, aren’t so fortunate.
This can only go on as long as the core can keep regrouping to stem the contagion. But in a system predicated of infinite growth in a finite world, this strategy can only work for a limited time. In fact, one can see the writing on the wall from here.
I think hypothermia and diabetes are both reasonable analogies, The periphery states can be considered to act as a kind of economic pressure regulator or buffer for the economies of the core states. In addition to supplying natural resources, agricultural produce and cheap labor to the core as needed, they absorb investment, loans and exports from the core when convenient for the core. But they are often little more than “colonies” of the core states and they usually lack the status (meaning the economic, military and political clout) required to demand equitable treatment, and so unless they are of strategic importance they tend to be the first places to be deprived of goodies and other support when expansion moves to contraction and continued support becomes inconvenient for the core states.
You may be right. The countries with a lot of problems now are ones that depend on a high price for oil (or coal or natural gas). The countries that are (for now) doing well are Western Europe and the USA, since low fossil fuel prices help them.
It will be fascinating to watch this unfold…. will countries on the periphery such as Venezuela be allowed to completely collapse completely (no electricity – no oil – no food…) at some point …
Or do the core countries keep them on some very low level of life support – along the lines of what we see in Haiti.
I suspect the latter — allowing a nation to crash into starvation disease and violence — would startle the sheeple…. they would start wondering why nobody is stepping into help …. and they might suspect the world really is about to end
Pandit Says 30% of Bank Jobs May Disappear in Next Five Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-13/ex-citi-ceo-pandit-says-30-of-bank-jobs-at-risk-from-technology
Be nice if all police, lawyer and judge jobs could be automated. That way there are no egos to bruise, no shooting out of fear, no “heros”, no bias, no favors ,no deals. Just the raw equal enforcement of laws.
Forgot to add: no pension plans LOL 🙂
And no adrenaline surge which is why the police will jump on the opportunity to shoot.
Can’t get a job because of Crapitlism? Become a whore for a rich old man instead….
https://imgur.com/a/sD2qV
Well, girls used to augment their income that way during the days of William Hogarth (1697-1764). It’s nothing new.
I am sure these places would be happy to have some summer student talent http://nevadabrothels.net/
Thought this was interesting. I’ve heard Singapore touted as a barometer for global economic health but never Sweden. Copper and Caterpillar also seem to be respected indicators.
“Swedish manufacturing PMI tumbled to the lowest in a year in August, well below analyst expectations, with mainly production and new-order data contributing to the decline. Scandinavia’s biggest economy is driven by an export industry including global manufacturers such as Atlas Copco AB, Volvo AB and Electrolux AB, and its performance is considered to be a leading indicator for global economic trends.””
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-12/to-gauge-if-global-growth-is-running-out-of-gas-watch-sweden?fref=gc&dti=623305194398609
Singapore is the center of the trade route between Europe and Asia. No trade route passes through Sweden.
Thanks! I suppose part of the reason might be that Sweden is not in the Eurozone, so its currency can float independently.
DEUTSCHE BANK WARNS: ‘The dollar is in trouble’
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-warns-dollar-trouble-111500219.html
If the dollar is in trouble, the euro is swimming in nuclear waste.
But oil prices are not up correspondingly since the first of the year. Of course, they have been more volatile.
It seems what the peak oil people did was not in vain, because the Peak Oilers led to the grab of Middle Eastern oil resources before it was too late.
That did postpone peak oil significantly, and possibly bought enough time for Singularity to arrive.
Peak oil already occurred back in 2006. And we have permanent oil shortages coming in a few years. Euphoria is almost always a temporary condition.
Or maybe we do not have “permanent oil shortages.” Maybe we have permanently closed banks, and no way to buy the glut of oil that is available. Your “peak oil” beliefs guide your thinking.
You have made this point several times before, and it has helped my understanding greatly. Since there is not a shortage of oil, what is peaking is the effectiveness of the money system to produce it for work. If it is to continue indefinitely to do work, some other (or accompanying) system will be required for the purpose.
I have given dozens of reasons why the permanent oil shortages are coming.
A networked system works in a very different way than peak oilers have modeled the system. If you believe peak oil models, oil “runs out.” A more likely scenario is that the “system collapses.” Wages of non-elite workers fall too low. The total amount of per capita energy consumption starts to fall (not necessarily oil). It becomes more and more difficult to repay debt with interest. Oil prices may be unstable, but it is doubtful that they will be high for any length of time. Banks collapse and governments collapse. Oil gluts are as likely as shortages, in my opinion. Oil gluts happen because citizens lack buying power to afford to buy goods like homes and cars.
Anything that gets left in the ground will likely stay there indefinitely. This is true for natural gas and most coal as well as oil.
But I see that as due to the failure of the money system to produce it under reduced circumstances.. Produce it for such basic needs as managing nuclear waste, growing most food, and maintaining skeleton government services.
So although I saw this as having essentially to do with human decisions–like not working to produce FFs without having to make a profit–any change toward producing FFs through other (and additional) forms of incentives depends on a fragile FF industry? Any “initiative” toward workaround resilience could destabilize the FF industry? One of the ways that what’s left in the ground would have to stay there? It could be taken out by some different formula, but arriving at that formula is beyond the range of a fragile system.
So much of our technological complexity is fragile…
‘When one examines the collapses of the tech bubble and the housing bubble, it’s evident that one of the central elements of those collapses was the gradual recognition by investors that the overvalued pieces of paper they were holding were actually little Potemkin Villages; temporarily glorious and impressive on the surface, but backed by much less than investors had imagined was there. What sort of “catalyst” is needed for a Potemkin Village or a Ponzi scheme to disappoint? Only the gradual or sudden discovery of the reality behind it: the recognition that there is no “there” there.’
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc170911.htm
The discovery of reality is the very last thing we should wish for: we need more debt and more delusion, for everyone to believe that they are standing on a well-engineered floor with deep foundations, rather than shifting sands. It is this alone that keeps things running.
I agree, and it is fascinating to see how readily each twist and turn is accepted as plausible. Belief in EV’s is a crowning achievement.
If one looks at it from a purely gamekeeping POV, there are way too many useless eaters.
Has this escaped TPTB? Unlikely.
Would they, shock horror: take the world’s pop down to 50-100 million if it was deemed necessary to save their *sses?
In a New York minute.
Without a doubt…. however that would not save them so it wont happen
Well well, I hear strains of Kumbaya.
Who’d a thunk it?
How do you reach that conclusion?
The el ders would kill every last one of us if it meant they could maintain BAU…. but they will not … because killing off the goy im would precipitate the end of BAU and result in their immediate deaths as well.
Koombaya? You’ve got your marbles mixed up
tsk-tsk
Ah…… presumptuousness almost like voluptuousness. Overfull.
Robotics and AI are nearly here.
One thing is for certain ….. the MORE ons are here.
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0535/6917/products/mistakesdemotivator_large.jpeg?v=1416776264
No doubt TPTB always will do what they think they have to do in order to remain TPTB.
Cathal reckons, “the Reset has begun.”
David Icke warns that “AI could take over mankind by 2018.”
Nafeez says, “Some time after January 2018, we are seeing the probability of a new crisis convergence in global energy, economic and food systems, similar to what occurred in 2008.”
And Guy McF’son has predicted the end of civilization by 2018 due to peak oil.
On the other hand, the World Cup is still due to go ahead in 2018 in Russia, and Game of Thrones Season 8 is slated for broadcast as early as the summer of that year, so we have no reason to be totally pessimistic. The plug will not be pulled by the Eld.ers until next September at the earliest.
Yes, it will.
With less people less facilities are needed so many surviving nuclear plants can be closed.
Arnoux’s informed claim is there is roughly ~2B of people needed to run contemporary support systems for the overall industrial civilization. I think on this point he is more or less right, and when you apply a bit of chaos and triage into this equation, the number could be even lower, so that’s ~5.5-6.5B to be left on the cutting floor or shell we say on the altar of having tech civilization humming for few more years.
He who thinks this “culling” won’t be at least attempted in some shape or form before ~2030 is not rational. Long term successes (and mid term for specific regions) of such policy are another matter.. not expecting viability of this can kicking long term obviously..
What makes one worthy?
Human rights? – Maybe not.
I don’t think it is plausible that useless eaters will be eliminated per se, but the people on the bottom rung of society’s ladder will simply die off from lack of essentials and medicine. People important to IC will inherently have decent jobs and some security in their lives.
At this point FE usually chimes in with: you are a Kumbaya freak.
But he is having an agonizing reappraisal right now as the crushing reality of AI and robotics soon making almost ALL of humanity redundant hits home.
Georgia guidestones said 500m is enough.
Although they were wrong on one thing – Swahili will not be spoken in that world.
This is so beyond stewwpid I won’t even address it
I agree. The older I get and the more I have come to realize how artificial our existence has become. We are living a virtual reality. Almost every service, every device, every bite of food we eat, all comes courtesy of fossil fuel burning. Almost nothing we experience today could ever be experienced in the natural world. Our homes, entertainment, medical care, transportation, food, water and waste disposal are all transient and will all disappear soon after fossil fuels are no longer economic. In 100 years much of what we consider high tech and robust will be in ruins.
All of the video games that everyone is playing and the many movies that are being downloaded fit in perfectly with this artificial reality. No need to get married and have a family, for example.
In a way these nascent generations of “lemmings” would suffer less when departing this world in contrast to more fully developed personalities of older generations, who were troubled witnessing the riches both in the nature and in some advanced human cultures going away. It seems as sort of a trade off and “intelligent” nature’s care of doing business on such occasions..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fdjf4lMmiiI
Starting with the person at the top of the DOE, whom as recently as last year or so (before becoming the head of the DOE) thought we could just get rid of the Dept of Energy and drill, baby, drill, to keep the American Dream alive!
https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/08/f36/Staff%20Report%20on%20Electricity%20Markets%20and%20Reliability_0.pdf
The evolution of wholesale electricity markets, including the extent to which Federal policy
interventions and the changing nature of the electricity fuel mix are challenging the original
policy assumptions that shaped the creation of those markets;
Whether wholesale energy and capacity markets are adequately compensating attributes such
as on-site fuel supply and other factors that strengthen grid resilience and, if not, the extent to
which this could affect grid reliability and resilience in the future; and
The extent to which continued regulatory burdens, as well as mandates and tax and subsidy
policies, are responsible for forcing the premature retirement of baseload power plants.
I don’t recall seeing this posted before, maybe I just missed it (this site gets a lot of posts sometimes), but hopefully this is not a repost.
I wonder what a global chart of baseload would look like, possible broken down by country. Per capita?
Peak baseload?
Will baseload erosion, combined with some black swan, be the straw that breaks the camels back?
The pattern repeats…and repeats…and history is ignored.
The manipulations of the narrative is ceaseless and yet again the perpetrators retire with their ill-gotten gains…cue Al Bore and his lied for dollars.
‘But I saw very quickly that Arab people and others from the region tended to have a much more nuanced understanding of the world, reflecting its true complexities, than the average American. Looking back, it was these Arab-American friends (who gave predictions and warnings about what was to come of the US invasion of Iraq) who were proven exactly right. At the time, they were sneered at and ridiculed by most for daring to offer a contrary viewpoint, even though they knew the history of America’s prior destructive meddling in the Middle East quite well.’
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-12/never-forget-marine-reflects-lies-our-endless-wars
End of BAU? Hardly, you all need to get the MSM Data and be HAPPY.
Middle-class income hit highest level on record in 2016, Census Bureau reports
By Heather Long, The Washington Post • September 12, 2017
MIKE BLAKE | REUTERS | BDN
A construction workers carries his gear to a job site in Carlsbad, California, May 24, 2017.
America’s middle class had its highest-earning year ever in 2016, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Tuesday.
Median household income in America was $59,039 last year, surpassing the previous high of $58,655 set in 1999, the Census Bureau said. The figure is adjusted for inflation and is one of the most closely watched indicators of how the middle class is faring financially, as the Census surveys nearly 100,000 homes.
The Census said the uptick in earnings occurred because so many people found full-time jobs — or better-paying jobs — last year.
America’s poverty rate also fell to 12.7 percent , the lowest since 2007, the year before the financial crisis hit. The percent of Americans without health insurance also dropped last year to just 8.8 percent, largely thanks to expanding coverage under the Affordable Care Act.
https://bangordailynews.com/2017/09/12/news/middle-class-income-hit-highest-level-on-record-in-2016-census-bureau-reports/
I’m going to have a yard sale of my 20 ft storage container!
This is what Wolf Blitzer has to say: https://wolfstreet.com/2017/09/12/the-terrible-facts-about-the-real-earnings-of-men/
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/US-household-survey_2016_earnings-men-women.png
The only wage growth that has taken place since 1972 is bringing the median earnings of women up from 60% of that of men, to a bit over 80% of that of men. The earnings of men have stayed absolutely flat.
He points out that the earnings in the well-publicized part of the study are for all types of “income” combined, including Social Security, pension income, workers compensation, unemployment insurance and all kinds of things.
When you list SS as earning, it occurred to me that non parity of earning for women limits what they earn through SS. Never thought of it that way.
Social Security gives relatively more benefits for the lower dollar of earnings. There is a fairly large haircut, though, for being out of the labor force for several years.
Also, women have quite a bit longer life expectancy.
IIRC, they also have the opportunity to use a benefit equal to 50% of the spouse’s benefit, if that is better. (Men do also.)
This chart shows the number and average payment amounts by “primary beneficiary.” This is a little confusing. If only one spouse is alive, it is pretty clear who this is (regardless of who worked). If both spouses are alive, but one (typically the man) greatly out-earned what the other earned, then his payments would be shown as being 50% higher than the payment would be using the “normal formula.” This may be part of the reason why in most age ranges, the average amount of benefit checks seems to be 25% to 30% higher for men than for women.
“Social Security gives relatively more benefits for the lower dollar of earnings. There is a fairly large haircut, though, for being out of the labor force for several years.”
I started in the system 60 years ago, and there was a benefit to starting early. As a low dollar earner, I benefitted from the advantage to that category. But as someone who stayed out of the system for many years, I was more disadvantaged by that than I realized. So mine seems to be a mixed bag.
The chart is great.
That’s Wolf Richter not Wolf Blitzer he is on CNN
Oops!
“Median household income in America was $59,039 last year, surpassing the previous high of $58,655 set in 1999” – That is good news to you? Shirley you can’t be serious. Even if true, that means wages have been stagnant for almost 20 years now. That is terrible. Gail and others have shown many times that real wages have been stagnant much longer than 20 year too. So, this is not good news for you “The Second Coming.”
this will be the propaganda underpinning the new world order that ‘global warming’ cannot be called a fraud anyone that does so should be thrown in jail a world like that means the end of free speech
https://www.technocracy.news/index.php/2017/09/08/hurricanes-harvey-and-irma-cant-be-blamed-on-global-warming/
Why are my posts being blocked?
I was responding to someone about cli t mate change…never mind…
My point was
I suppose humans might be altering the c–mate but the more I look into it..the harder it is to separate supposed evidence for c-mate change with environmental degradation and pollution. It’s also clear that no model known to man can accurately predict the Earth’s climate. Those who are making predictions are politically motivated .
CIA? Maybe Soro’s from Obama’s basement in DC?
Calls To Imprison “KKK liiiiimate Chhhhhange Dennn niers” Grow In The Wake Of Hurricane Irma
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-12/calls-imprison-cli mate-cha nge-de
niers-grow-wake-hurricane-irma
This is priceless!
That is the kind of talk that could get policymakers who heed her research hauled before the justice system, if some of those in the ___ ___ movement have their way.
“___ ____ _____should be a crime,” declared the Sept. 1 headline in the Outline. Mark Hertsgaard argued in a Sept. 7 article in the Nation, titled “_________ _______ Is Literally Killing Us,” that “murder is murder” and “we should punish it as such.”
The suggestion that those who run afoul of the ________ _____ consensus, in particular government officials, should face charges comes with tem peratures flaring over the link between hurrica nes and greeeeeenhouse gaaaas emiiiiiiissions.
“In the wake of Harvey, it’s time to treat sc ience deni al as gross negligence — and hold those who do the de nying accountable,” said the subhead in the Outline article, written by Brian Merchant.
Meanwhile Brian Merchant lives in a house — uses electricity – buys food from a shop — drives a car — buys stuff…..
Apparently it does not occur to him that he is the one who should be jailed for committing global murder.
How do you plead Brian?
I plead TINA says Brian
Is this going to turn into an all-out ideological war? The 30-year one in Germany in the 17th century between Catholics and Protestants killed around 30% of the population. Once one side knows that there are genocidal maniacs on the other side, the gloves come off.
Doesn’t bode well:
Putin: “It is difficult to talk to people who confuse Austria and Australia”
From now on it would probably be best to keep any doubts about the new orthodoxy and the Great Solar Future to oneself. In public at least.
As conditions worsen, people will become savagely irrational, and lose any critical faculties they once might have possessed (I know that’s marginal for most of the population, still……)
‘Flies can’t get into a shut mouth’ (Old Spanish proverb.)
‘Flies can’t get into a shut mouth’ (Old Spanish proverb.)
Coincidentally, mysticism (originally) meant to keep one’s mouth shut.
I like that.
Yep, this is highly likely scenario for US/NA and other places.
But mind you the 30yrs war was also fueled by “ext. forces” (money, armies, logistics) be it France, Spain, Austria, Sweden and so on. This effect would be much smaller these days of depletion, although in earlier stages one can not exclude the logical possibility some former US states might get support from Asia against their domestic enemies (and other int alliances) etc.
The re-education camps are being built as we speak!
Never let a good crisis go to waste! Jail those CC deniers already. After all, they caused Irma and Harvey and should be considered tearerrrrist. It will be a growth boom for law enforcement gear, jail building, lawyers, judges and cops.
Gail, if I go to the Automatic Earth or Zero Hedge I get hit with stuff that either freezes the site or forces ads onto the screen I can’t get ride of and your site doesn’t do that, so thanks. Unfortunately the internet is evolving to have more ads and forced video ads to watch. I can see where it’s going and don’t like it and figure at some future point in time there will be multiple ads to have to watch just to get to what is wanted and probably more invasive intrusions not even thought up yet. Eventually it won’t be much different than watching TV without a DVR.
Either that, or authors require you to have a subscription to read their articles.
I pay WordPress so that you don’t have ads.
thanks i hate ads too
what are ads?
Thanks Gail, your hard work and insights are appreciated.
Adblock Plus – Surf the web without annoying ads!
‘Twas those annoying ads in youtube as made me install it.
http://www.npr.org/2017/09/04/547934012/trumps-nominee-to-be-usdas-chief-scientist-is-not-a-scientist
A fighter pilot, economics prof and conservative radio talk show host. He may or may not have grown a radish once also. I guess he’s qualified for the job (in this administration).
A fighter pilot, an economics prof and a conservative radio talk show host walk into a bar.
Bartender says “What? Is this a joke?”
termite walks in and asks “Where’s the bar tender?”
a gorilla walks into a bar and sits down.
where does a gorilla sit in a bar?
ANYWHERE HE WANTS TO!
ba-dum!
That is because its almost impossible to find a right wing Scientist
Scientist have their minds made up that there is a solution to our current predicament. They also tend to believe that whatever is printed in peer reviewed articles is correct (even though there is ample evidence this is not the case).
It is impossible to model our economy. It is simply too complex. So the temptation is to put together a very simple model that proves whatever you want proven.
++++++++++++++
Stating the belief that there is no solution to the problem one is researching doesn’t look good on a grant proposal.
Finding America’s Lost 3% Growth -WSJ
If the country can’t grow like it once did, then the American Dream really is irretrievably lost.
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/finding-americas-lost-3-growth-1505073886
Look, all these quotes and links are kind of boring. What we want to read is a serious full on over the top rant. That’s why we come to ofw. Cliff? FE? Artleads? Duncan? Somebody help me out here.
Perhaps I am the bad person, stopping some of this.
I have no problem with Cliff’s links…. if people don’t want to read them they can just move to the next comment
Be nice if we can agree to stop debating GW. I like focusing on the more immediate threats like the recent solar flare 🙂
Clffhgr is the main one doing this, almost as soon as a new article is posted.
Rants get a bit tiresome after a while, especially if you consider the basic assumptions may well be flawed. The Chinese are taking their chances and seem to be doing ok. I admire them for that.
Working fusion reactors could be a game-changer.
Working fusion reactors could be a game-changer.
If I type that into a google search how many MSM sources will come up with that as the headline?
Hunter-gatherer lifestyles could be a game-changer too 🙂 Who knows, maybe we would be happier.
Probably we would be happier. At present to be a H/G is to be vulnerable.
https://www.enca.com/world/brazil-investigates-alleged-tribal-massacre-in-amazon?ncid=edlinkushpmg00000313
I liked the comment of a Sami reindeer herder, about being connected via the internet and having snow-cats -‘In some ways it’s great, but there’s a whole lot more to worry about so maybe it’s not so good.’
On the other hand, I tend to think – I might be completely wrong – that the lives of hunters are riddled with fear: of crippling and lethal wounds, disease, and accidents, of demons and the dark.
Things which are probably more real to them than the threat of nuclear annihilation, etc , which we can put out of our minds quite easily. Every day can be quite dangerous for them, in a very real and immediate way.
Believing that everything is pre-destined is a technique for being happy in a very uncertain and dangerous environment. Belief in gods, too.
what’s wrong with America?
how can this low growth be tolerated?
where is the LEADERSHIP?
our politicians have FAILED US.
why can’t they overrule physics and get us the CHEAP ENERGY we need?
WHAT’S GOING ON?
we need a REVOLUTION and we need it NOW!
and when I say NOW, I mean no later than September 21st.
come on, everybody, let’s START THE REVOLUTION NOW!
CHEAP ENERGY IS COMING BACK!
WE CAN DO THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The decay of the US and the West is in your face.
There is no real attempt even at the conceit of honor.
The Boys aren’t doing well.
Excellent!
The Chinese are taking their chances and seem to be doing ok. I admire them for that.
Working fusion reactors could be a game-changer.
You forgot to add the /sarc tag at the end your comment.
In the same vein:
If that was aimed at me, it proves you’ve lost the argument, before it even got started.
Pile:
Presumptuousness is unimpressive.
I’ll take the UltraMarooon badge for myself as a compliment.
TL, where are you from?
are you not from here in the wild USA?
https://youtu.be/7OpOYGt4Sss
Perhaps the American Dream really is irretrievably lost.
“The American Dream”: you just have to be asleep to believe it – George Carlin
According to Lisa Haven, “ominous things are coming”.
https://youtu.be/o9pJphrfhFc
By an amazing coincidence, that is what Ben Freedman said in the early sixties as referenced by our very own FE.
Poll: More Americans Have a Gun in Home Than Ever Before
http://freebeacon.com/issues/poll-americans-gun-home-ever/
The national US debt is growing over THREE TIMES FASTER than the economy.
From:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-12/real-story-behind-americas-new-20-trillion-debt
Here’s the problem: the national debt is growing MUCH faster than the US economy. In Fiscal Year 2016, for example, the debt grew by 7.84%. Yet even when including the ‘benefits’ of inflation, the US economy only grew by 2.4% over the same period.
In other words, the debt is growing over THREE TIMES FASTER than the economy.
I think it speaks volumes that an R president, Trump (who hates the Dems) ran to them to make a deal on the debt ceiling (albeit short term). Not so easy after all to stay under the debt ceiling, because of the numerous tax cuts over the years reducing revenue while costs have skyrocketed and budgets ballooned to the point in which there is no way to run the govt. without increasing the debt ceiling as it is reached over and over again. Even with the R’s in charge of all 3 branches of govt., they have no answers. They were ready to shut down the govt. under O but now, not so much.
Yet, ironically, at the exact same time all this is playing out, Trump wants to reduce corporate taxes from 35% to 15% which according to the CBA (centers for business accountability) will raise the debt owed by 6T over 10 years. Trump claims the reduction will spur SO MUCH GROWTH that the benefit of the tax cut will far out weigh the loss of revenue with so much growth the tax base will go so high it will exceed 6T! Uh, ever heard that load of stuff before?
It really should be called a debt floor, not a ceiling. There is no choice other than raise the debt ceiling or stop government services. To raise or not to raise the debt ceiling either way we are in for a mighty rough ride.
Well I don’t think Trump’s idea of lowering the corporate taxes will do much good. But, at this point I guess try anything, no matter how crazy, to spur growth for one more year.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Commodities/China-sees-new-world-order-with-oil-benchmark-backed-by-gold?page=2
Interesting. If that happens the US could no longer just print money to buy oil. The US would have to trade something of tangible value to get oil. We could keep printing money to produce domestic shale oil though. However, the Dollar likely would now hold up very long as a world reserve currency if we loose the petro-dollar. The US may have to become energy and resource independent. Somehow I don’t see the military going along with that. I smell war.
they may be on their own if they declare war as every other nation has probably signed up to the new world order can they take on china and russia at the same time i think the only reason they will go to war is to assist BAU in fact it may be beneficial for the world economy to go to war
You can’t have conventional war today (as the first step) among major players or even incl. 1.5-2.5th tier countries, e.g. places like Iran can sink blue water navies via hitech torpedoes and missiles.. Besides the major point of China and Russia being too strong already in conventional arms, and it will be much worse ~2020-25..
That leaves us with proxy wars, meaning mostly continuation of the chaos doctrine inside the *heartland aka EuroAsia, and around its soft edges, like denying access to energy routes, infrastructure and economic war and so on. And obviously limited or full scale nuclear war scenarios.
*few days ago annoyed Putin finally said, another US intervention aiming at the Russian underbelly and he is going to arm his own rebels as well.. (probably meant as very close to US mil installations and other important hubs as to insert real pain)
“However, the Dollar likely would now hold up very long as a world reserve currency if we loose the petro-dollar.”
You meant not instead of now. I for one want to see this happen because It’s wrong to be able to print paper to pay for energy. It needs to be pegged to something of tangible value. We’ll see what happens with China’s gold backed transactions for oil, but it would seem likely it won’t be good for the US. And no matter how mad we get or how mad we go, via war or some other aggressive action, it won’t change our dire situation.
There’s not enough gold to backstop all the derivative positions. Any transition to a gold standard is out of the question in the context of maintaining BAU.
So, it won’t happen.
i believe the Chinese the central banks the imf all believe that backing with gold will save BAU along with other goodies they have planned for us i believe it will extend BAU for a few years longer before the fat lady sings nevertheless it presents an opportunity for OFW readers to get some precious metals before the reset which will send precious metals prices to the moon think derivatives my friend
This is nonsense. There won’t be a gold backed anything, and neither will there be a reset, since there actions contradict what you say, as they are printing money like there’s no tomorrow – because there isn’t. And they know it.
“There’s not enough gold to backstop all the derivative positions.”
My understanding is the backing is just as a transaction for oil, not everything else including derivatives. One problem might arise if some country wants gold for their oil then what? As I’m sure the gold wouldn’t last long.
Still not enough. Derivatives far outnumber the physical.
http://tinyurl.com/yazj8hw7
The Chinese seem to be progressive in a number of ways.
Yes, I meant not instead of now. I type too fast. I agree that printing money for energy is a very special kind of brazen lunacy. I am really surprised other major nations have let the US get away with it this long.
This has been at least partly explained several times already.
The system is what it is during the lifetime of a given cycle of past ~100-300yrs. For example, even Putin enjoys very much his fleet of imported Benz limousines, Omer diving suits and what have you, apart from domestically sourced presidential airplane (incl. engines and most electronics) with various defense subsystems, anti missile and sat based guarding it 24/365.
In fact the world even at this advance stage towards collapse remains a mixed system at best and for that you need $ or at least EUR and ways to make them into $..
One day it won’t matter that much anymore, attempted autarky, command economies, and some limited int trade mostly for the gov types only.. not much worth living for the little guys though..
No Joke: 97 Million Full-Time Workers Are Now Living Paycheck to Paycheck
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/no-joke-97-million-full-time-workers-are-now-living-paycheck-to-paycheck/ar-AArffO6?li=BBnbfcN
Probably with no retirement or savings either. Be nice to see a graph of this (in percentage terms) of how this has increased over time.
retirement payments were here for a brief flicker of time.
in a decade or three, there will be no more such payments, no pensions, no social security.
security itself will be rare or nonexistent.
One generation got to retire on pensions, another got to retire on 401k’s, the rest will never retire – one way or another.
Unfortunately, there will be no retirement party for the human race, when the end comes.
India’s public health system in crisis: Too many patients, not enough doctors
India has a little over one million modern medicine doctors to treat its 1.3 billion people
In India, there is one government allopathic doctor for every 10,189 people, one government hospital bed for every 2,046 people and one state-run hospital for every 90,343 people.
You don’t need an epidemic, however predictable, for the public health system to collapse. It is a matter of routine that patients share beds and doctors are overworked.
India has a little over one million modern medicine (allopathy) doctors to treat its population of 1.3 billion people. Of these, only around 10% work in the public health sector
The shortage of health providers and infrastructure is the most acute in rural areas, where catastrophic health expenses push populations the size of United Kingdom into poverty each year
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/public-health-system-in-crisis-too-many-patients-not-enough-doctors/story-39XAtFSWGfO0e4qRKcd8fO.html
clear example of limit to growth happened in real time
Terrifyingly easy to fall through the cracks in India.
“Although the incidence of cancer in India is half the world average – 94 per 100,000 compared to 182 per 100,000 – and a third of the incidence in developed countries (268 per 100,000), cancer care is scarce.
“India has no more than 250 dedicated cancer-care centres (0.2 per million population in India vs 4.4 per million population in the US), 40% of which are present in eight metropolitan cities and fewer than 15% are government-operated, noted a 2015 study, Call for Action: Expanding Cancer Care in India, by Ernst and Young, a consultancy.
“That is why 80% of India’s cancer cases come to medical attention at an advanced stage, one reason why 68% of patients with cancer die of the disease in India, compared to 33% in the US. India also has 0.98 oncologists per million population, compared to 15.39 in China, 25.63 in Philippines and 1.14 in Iran.
“So, many cancer patients must travel great distances to only 27 government cancer referral centres and 250 cancer centres nationwide. That explains the patients on the footpaths outside Tata Memorial Hospital and India’s high mortality and morbidity from and expenditure on cancer.”
https://thewire.in/173713/on-a-mumbai-street-indias-cancer-care-crisis-unfolds/
200 years ago no one had cancer doctors.
200 years ago, cancer was a disease mainly of old age.
everyone alive 200 years ago is now dead.
wow, so let’s be afraid of cancer.
What you described is just another manifestation of the pillars of current prevalent global order, specifically that pillar, which deals about how wealth tends to flock into perceived core. Many Indian trained doctors (Indian resources behind them) left to London, US, .. similarly lot of Indian capital moved to UK/EUR to acquire struggling companies, which serve luxury markets there and in the global. That capital (and its gains) is not reinvested in India, but again put to work elsewhere..
Mind you, these people are not the utmost global elite, only lesser nobles, enablers, there is probably few hundred thousands to couple of millions of such people in aggregate of all countries, depending how you count it. Many of them could be classified even as notional billionaires. They are obedient to the system owner’s directly and mostly indirectly, prolonging the status quo till the very last second. That’s another reason why larger (longer cycle concluding) crash will (must) have ~Seneca Cliff profile.
It seems likely there is more cancer now due to people of all ages with diets lacking in good nutrition. Just eating a bunch of food is no guarantee of getting what the body needs. My wife and I recently started juicing with mostly vegetables and the difference is uncanny. I mean nails and hair grow faster. I can eat chocolate without gaining weight. Skin color is markedly better! But the best thing about it is it’s probably the best way to avoid cancer. If you’re eating right, not smoking cigarettes, not drinking to excess, getting some exercise and enough sleep, a person really shouldn’t get cancer unless they’ve been exposed to an overload of radiation.
Children get cancer. It’s not that simple. Non smokers can get the cancer only smokers are supposed to get and elite athletes can have a heart attack. All claims must be preceeeded with the words, “relatively speaking”. In this world EVERYTHING is relative. It’s why those that believe in heaven or paradise after death, require a hell for comparison.