The energy needs of the world’s economy seem to be easy to model. Energy consumption is measured in a variety of different ways including kilowatt hours, barrels of oil equivalent, British thermal units, kilocalories and joules. Two types of energy are equivalent if they produce the same number of units of energy, right?
For example, xkcd’s modeler Randall Munroe explains the benefit of renewable energy in the video below. He tells us that based on his model, solar, if scaled up to ridiculous levels, can provide enough renewable energy for ourselves and a half-dozen of our neighbors. Wind, if scaled up to absurd levels, can provide enough renewable energy for ourselves and a dozen of our neighbors.
There is a major catch to this analysis, however. The kinds of energy produced by wind and solar are not the kinds of energy that the economy needs. Wind and solar produce intermittent electricity available only at specific times and places. What the world economy needs is a variety of different energy types that match the energy requirements of the many devices in place in the world today. This energy needs to be transported to the right place and saved for the right time of day and the right time of year. There may even be a need to store this energy from year to year, because of possible droughts.
I think of the situation as being analogous to researchers deciding that it would be helpful or more efficient if humans could change their diets to 100% grass in the next 20 years. Grass is a form of energy product, but it is not the energy product that humans normally consume. It doesn’t seem to be toxic to humans in small quantities. It seems to grow quite well. Switching to the use of grass for food would seem to be beneficial from a CO2 perspective. The fact that humans have not evolved to eat grass is similar to the fact that the manufacturing and transport sectors of today’s economy have not developed around the use of intermittent electricity from wind and solar.
Substituting Grass for Food Might “Work,” but It Would Require Whole New Systems
If we consider other species, we find that animals with four stomachs can, in fact, live quite well on a diet of grass. These animals often have teeth that grow continuously because the silica in grass tends to wear down their teeth. If we could just get around these little details, we might be able to make the change. We would probably need to grow extra stomachs and add continuously growing teeth. Other adjustments might also be needed, such as a smaller brain. This would especially be the case if a grass-only diet is inadequate to support today’s brain growth and activity.
The problem with nearly all energy analyses today is that they use narrow boundaries. They look at only a small piece of the problem–generally the cost (or “energy cost”) of the devices themselves–and assume that this is the only cost involved in a change. In fact, researchers need to recognize that whole new systems may be required, analogous to the extra stomachs and ever-growing teeth. The issue is sometimes described as the need to have “wide boundaries” in analyses.
If the xkcd analysis netted out the indirect energy costs of the system, including energy related to all of the newly required systems, the results of the analysis would likely change considerably. The combined ability of wind and solar to power both one’s own home and those of a dozen and a half neighbors would likely disappear. Way too much of the output of the renewable system would be used to make the equivalent of extra stomachs and ever-growing teeth for the system to work. The world economy might not work as in the past, either, if the equivalent of the brain needs to be smaller.
Is “Energy Used by a Dozen of Our Neighbors” a Proper Metric?
Before I continue with my analysis of what goes wrong in modeling intermittent renewable energy, let me say a few words about the way Munroe quantifies the outcome of his energy analysis. He talks about “energy consumed by a household and a dozen of its neighbors.” We often hear news items about how many households can be served by a new electricity provider or how many households have been taken offline by a storm. The metric used by Munroe is similar. But, does it tell us what we need to know in this case?
Our economy requires energy consumption by many types of users, including governments to make roads and schools, farmers to plant crops and manufacturers to make devices of all kinds. Leaving non-residential energy consumption out of the calculation doesn’t make much sense. (Actually, we are not quite certain what Munroe has included in his calculation. His wording suggests that he included only residential energy consumption.) In the US, my analysis indicates that residential users consume only about a third of total energy.1 The rest is consumed by businesses and governments.
If we want to adjust Munroe’s indications to include energy consumed by businesses and governments, we need to divide the indicated number of residential households provided with energy by about three. Thus, instead of the units being “Energy Consumed by a Dozen of Our Neighbors,” the units would be “Energy Consumed by Four of Our Neighbors, Including Associated Energy Use by Governments and Businesses.” The apparently huge benefit provided by wind and solar becomes much smaller when we divide by three, even before any other adjustments are made.
What Might the Indirect Costs of Wind and Solar Be?
There are a number of indirect costs:
(1) Transmission costs are much higher than those of other types of electricity, but they are not charged back to wind and solar in most studies.
A 2014 study by the International Energy Agency indicates that transmission costs for wind are approximately three times the cost of transmission costs for coal or nuclear. The amount of excess costs tends to increase as intermittent renewables become a larger share of the total. Some of the reason for higher transmission costs for both wind and solar are the following:
(a) Disproportionately more lines need to be built for wind and solar because transmission lines need to be scaled to the maximum output, rather than the average output. Wind output is typically available 25% to 35% of the time; solar is typically available 10% to 25% of the time.
(b) There tend to be longer distances between where renewable energy is captured and where it is consumed, compared to traditional generation.
(c) Renewable electricity is not created in a fossil fuel power plant, with the same controls over the many aspects of grid electricity. The transmission system must therefore make corrections which would not be needed for other types of electricity.
(2) With increased long distance electricity transmission, there is a need for increased maintenance of transmission lines. If this is not performed adequately, fires are likely, especially in dry, windy areas.
There is recent evidence that inadequate maintenance of transmission lines is a major fire hazard.
In California, inadequate electricity line maintenance has led to the bankruptcy of the Northern California utility PG&E. In recent weeks, PG&E has initiated two preventative cut-offs of power, one affecting as many as two million individuals.
The Texas Wildfire Mitigation Project reports, “Power lines have caused more than 4,000 wildfires in Texas in the past three and a half years.”
Venezuela has a long distance transmission line from its major hydroelectric plant to Caracas. One of the outages experienced in that country seems to be related to fires close to this transmission line.
There are things that can be done to prevent these fires, such as burying the lines underground. Even using insulated wire, instead of ordinary transmission wire, seems to help. But any solution has a cost involved. These costs need to be recognized in modeling the indirect cost of adding a huge amount of renewables.
(3) A huge investment in charging stations will be needed, if anyone other than the very wealthy are to use electric vehicles.
Clearly, the wealthy can afford electric vehicles. They generally have garages with connections to electrical power. With this arrangement, they can easily charge a vehicle that is powered by electricity when it is convenient.
The catch is that the less wealthy often do not have similar opportunities for charging electric vehicles. They also cannot afford to spend hours waiting for their vehicles to charge. They will need inexpensive rapid-charging stations, located in many, many places, if electric vehicles are to be a suitable choice. The cost of rapid-charging will likely need to include a fee for road maintenance, since this is one of the costs that today is included in fuel prices.
(4) Intermittency adds a very substantial layer of costs.
A common belief is that intermittency can be handled by rather small changes, such as time-of-day pricing, smart grids and cutting off power to a few selected industrial customers if there isn’t enough electricity to go around. This belief is more or less true if the system is basically a fossil fuel and nuclear system, with a small percentage of renewables. The situation changes as more intermittent renewables are added.
Once more than a small percentage of solar is added to the electric grid, batteries are needed to smooth out the rapid transition that occurs at the end of the day when workers are returning home and would like to eat their dinners, even though the sun has set. There are also problems with electricity from wind cutting off during storms; batteries can help smooth out these transitions.
There are also longer-term problems. Major storms can disrupt electricity for several days, at any time of the year. For this reason, if a system is to run on renewables alone, it would be desirable to have battery backup for at least three days. In the short video below, Bill Gates expresses dismay at the idea of trying to provide a three-day battery backup for the quantity of electricity used by the city of Tokyo.
We do not at this point have nearly enough batteries to provide a three-day battery backup for the world’s electricity supply. If the world economy is to run on renewables, electricity consumption would need to rise from today’s level, making it even more difficult to store a three-day supply.
A much more difficult problem than three-day storage of electricity is the need for seasonal storage, if renewable energy is to be used to any significant extent. Figure 1 shows the seasonal pattern of energy consumption in the United States.
Figure 1. US energy consumption by month of year, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration. “All Other” is total energy, less electricity and transportation energy. It includes natural gas used for home heating. It also includes oil products used for farming, as well as fossil fuels of all kinds used for industrial purposes.
In contrast with this pattern, the production of solar energy tends to peak in June; it falls to a low level in December to February. Hydroelectric power tends to peak in spring, but its quantity is often quite variable from year to year. Wind power is quite variable, both from year to year and month to month.
Our economy cannot handle many starts and stops of electricity supply. For example, temperatures need to stay high for melting metals. Elevators should not stop between floors when the electricity stops. Refrigeration needs to continue when fresh meat is being kept cold.
There are two approaches that can be used to work around seasonal energy problems:
- Greatly overbuild the renewables-based energy system, to provide enough electricity when total energy is most needed, which tends to be in winter.
- Add a huge amount of storage, such as battery storage, to store electricity for months or even years, to mitigate the intermittency.
Either of these approaches is extremely high cost. These costs are like adding extra stomachs to the human system. They have not been included in any model to date, as far as I know. The cost of one of these approaches needs to be included in any model analyzing the costs and benefits of renewables, if there is any intention of using renewables as more than a tiny share of total energy consumption.
Figure 2 illustrates the high energy cost that can occur by adding substantial battery backup to an electrical system. In this example, the “net energy” that the system provides is essentially eliminated by the battery backup. In this analysis, Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) compares energy output to energy input. It is one of many metrics used to estimate whether a device is providing adequate energy output to justify the front-end energy inputs.
Figure 2. Graham Palmer’s chart of Dynamic Energy Returned on Energy Invested from “Energy in Australia.”
The example in Figure 2 is based on the electricity usage pattern in Melbourne, Australia, which has a relatively mild climate. The example uses a combination of solar panels, batteries and diesel backup generation. Solar panels and backup batteries provide electricity for the 95% of annual electricity usage that is easiest to cover with these devices; diesel generation is used for the remaining 5%.
The Figure 2 example could be adjusted to be “renewable only” by adding significantly more batteries, a large number of solar panels, or some combination of these. These additional batteries and solar panels would be very lightly used, bringing the EROEI of the system down to an even lower level.
To date, a major reason that the electricity system has been able to avoid the costs of overbuilding or of adding major battery backup is the small share they represent of electricity production. In 2018, wind amounted to 5% of world electricity; solar amounted to 2%. As percentages of world energy supply, they represented 2% and 1% respectively.
A second reason that the electricity system has been able to avoid addressing the intermittency issue is because backup electricity providers (coal, natural gas, and nuclear) have been forced to provide backup services without adequate compensation for the value of services that they are providing. The way that this happens is by giving wind and solar the subsidy of “going first.” This practice creates a problem because backup providers have substantial fixed costs, and they often are not being adequately compensated for these fixed costs.
If there is any plan to cease using fossil fuels, all of these backup electricity providers, including nuclear, will disappear. (Nuclear also depends on fossil fuels.) Renewables will need to stand on their own. This is when the intermittency problem will become overwhelming. Fossil fuels can be stored relatively inexpensively; electricity storage costs are huge. They include both the cost of the storage system and the loss of energy that takes place when storage is used.
In fact, the underfunding issue associated with allowing intermittent renewables to go first is already becoming an overwhelming problem in a few places. Ohio has recently chosen to provide subsidies to coal and nuclear providers as a way of working around this issue. Ohio is also reducing funding for renewables.
(5) The cost of recycling wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries needs to be reflected in cost estimates.
A common assumption in energy analyses seems to be that somehow, at the end of the design lifetime of wind turbines, solar panels and batteries, all of these devices will somehow disappear at no cost. If recycling is done, the assumption is made that the cost of recycling will be less than the value of the materials made available from the recycling.
We are discovering now that recycling isn’t free. Very often, the energy cost of recycling materials is greater than the energy used in mining them fresh. This problem needs to be considered in analyzing the real cost of renewables.
(6) Renewables don’t directly substitute for many of the devices/processes we have today. This could lead to a major step-down in how the economy operates and a much longer transition.
There is a long list of things that renewables don’t substitute for. Today, we cannot make wind turbines, solar panels, or today’s hydroelectric dams without fossil fuels. This, by itself, makes it clear that the fossil fuel system will need to be maintained for at least the next twenty years.
There are many other things that we cannot make with renewables alone. Steel, fertilizer, cement and plastics are some examples that Bill Gates mentions in his video above. Asphalt and many of today’s drugs are other examples of goods that cannot be made with renewables alone. We would need to change how we live without these goods. We could not pave roads (except with stone) or build many of today’s buildings with renewables alone.
It seems likely that manufacturers would try to substitute wood for fossil fuels, but the quantity of wood available would be far too low for this purpose. The world would encounter deforestation issues within a few years.
(7) It is likely that the transition to renewables will take 50 or more years. During this time, wind and solar will act more like add-ons to the fossil fuel system than they will act like substitutes for it. This also increases costs.
In order for the fossil fuel industries to continue, a large share of their costs will need to continue. The people working in fossil fuel industries need to be paid year around, not just when electrical utilities need backup electrical power. Fossil fuels will need pipelines, refineries and trained people. Companies using fossil fuels will need to pay their debts related to existing facilities. If natural gas is used as backup for renewables, it will need reservoirs to hold natural gas for winter, besides pipelines. Even if natural gas usage is reduced by, say, 90%, its costs are likely to fall by a much smaller percentage, say 30%, because a large share of costs are fixed.
One reason that a very long transition will be needed is because there is not even a path to transition away from fossil fuels in many cases. If a change is to be made, inventions to facilitate these changes are a prerequisite. Then these inventions need to be tested in actual situations. Next, new factories are needed to make the new devices. It is likely that some way will be needed to pay existing owners for the loss of value of their existing fossil fuel powered devices; if not, there are likely to be huge debt defaults. It is only after all of these steps have taken place that the transition can actually take place.
These indirect costs lead to a huge question mark regarding whether it even makes sense to encourage the widespread use of wind and solar. Renewables can reduce CO2 emissions if they really substitute for fossil fuels in making electricity. If they are mostly high cost add-ons to the system, there is a real question: Does it even make sense to mandate a transition to wind and solar?
Do Wind and Solar Really Offer a Longer-Term Future than Fossil Fuels?
At the end of the xkcd video shown above, Munroe makes the observation that wind and solar are available indefinitely, but fossil fuel supplies are quite limited.
I agree with Munroe that fossil fuel supplies are quite limited. This occurs because energy prices do not rise high enough for us to extract very much of them. The prices of finished products made with fossil fuels need to be low enough for customers to be able to afford them. If this is not the case, purchases of discretionary goods (for example cars and smart phones) will fall. Since cars and smart phones are made with commodities, including fossil fuels, the lower “demand” for these finished goods will lead to falling prices of commodities, including oil. In fact, we seem to have experienced falling oil prices most of the time since 2008.
Figure 3. Inflation adjusted weekly average Brent Oil price, based on EIA oil spot prices and US CPI-urban inflation.
It is hard to see why renewables would last any longer than fossil fuels. If their unsubsidized cost is any higher than fossil fuels, this would be one strike against them. They are also very dependent on fossil fuels for making spare parts and for repairing transmission lines.
It is interesting that climate change modelers seem to be convinced that very high amounts of fossil fuels can be extracted in the future. The question of how much fossil fuels can really be extracted is another modeling issue that needs to be examined closely. The amount of future extraction seems to be highly dependent on how well the current economic system holds together, including the extent of globalization. Without globalization, fossil fuel extraction seems likely to decline quickly.
Do We Have Too Much Faith in Models?
The idea of using renewables certainly sounds appealing, but the name is deceiving. Most renewables, except for wood and dung, aren’t very renewable. In fact, they depend on fossil fuels.
The whole issue of whether wind and solar are worthwhile needs to be carefully analyzed. The usual hallmark of an energy product that is of substantial benefit to the economy is that its production tends to be very profitable. With these high profits, governments can tax the owners heavily. Thus, the profits can be used to aid the rest of the economy. This is one of the physical manifestations of the “net energy” that the energy product provides.
If wind and solar were really providing substantial net energy, they would not need subsidies, not even the subsidy of going first. They would be casting off profits to benefit the rest of the economy. Perhaps renewables aren’t as beneficial as many people think they are. Perhaps researchers have put too much faith in distorted models.
Note:
[1] This is my estimate, based on EIA and BP data. With respect to electricity, EIA data shows that in the US, residential users consume about 38% of the total. With respect to fuels that are not used for transportation and not used for electricity, US residential users consume about 19% of these fuels. Combining these two categories, US households use about 31% of non-transportation fuels.
With respect to transportation fuels, the closest approximation we can get is by looking at petroleum use, divided between gasoline and other products. According to BP data, on a worldwide basis, 26% of petroleum is burned as gasoline. In the United States, about 46% of petroleum consumption is burned as gasoline. Of course, some of this gasoline usage is for non-residential use. For example, cars used by police and sales representatives are typically powered by gasoline, as are small trucks used by businesses.
Furthermore, the US is a major importer of manufactured goods from China and other parts of the world. The embodied energy in these imported goods never gets into US energy consumption statistics. In theory, we should add a little energy consumption by foreign manufacturers to supplement total reported US energy consumption.
The selection of “about a third” is based on these considerations.
“With home sales crashing, real estate agent Zhang Yonggang is tightening his belt, part of a plunge in Chinese consumer demand that is a bigger threat to economic growth than Beijing’s tariff war with Washington.”
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20191102/p2g/00m/0bu/026000c
“More than one-third of China’s provinces have so far failed to meet this year’s growth targets as the economy continues to sputter…
“Official data also showed that traditionally poorer regions suffered the most, while the wealthier coastal provinces were more resilient to economic headwinds, underlining that China’s economic slowdown is exacerbating the wealth gap between regions.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3035918/chinas-regional-economic-gap-widens-more-one-third-provinces
I would expect that the Chinese government also has less money to try to subsidize the provinces that are not doing well.
Wow! Beijing’s lending change looks like a recipe for disaster:
Wasn’t China supposed to be evolving into a more consumer-led economy?
“China is shifting its growth model to one relying more on consumption and less on investment…
“A vast middle class of people with an income affording more than the basic essentials of existence, will also emerge. These consumers will be not only be more demanding, but will seek goods and services that enrich their lives.” [May, 2018]
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/627ab75c-4256-11e8-97ce-ea0c2bf34a0b
The headline seems to say that. May 29, 2018. Didn’t take long not to work.
adonis:
Correct. Eventually everywhere will turn to negative interest rates and cashless society, so no choice but to accept negative interest rate in a deposit account. Money will flee into everything else, causing asset price inflation to infinity.
I’m not saying this is good policy, I’m saying this is what will happen. Everybody reading this post, you will be on your deathbed, and the stock market, real estate, bonds, collectibles, anything else you wish to name will make new high after new high. Nobody reading this is going to see the end, that’s for people in 2050s, 2060s etc.
Eddy pbbl had it right, the market will set ATH day before collapse.
Can this limp along until 2060? Someone here 35 yo will only be 75 then. Even 50 today has a decent chance making it until 2060, better chance than BAU I would say.
Could be. Looks like the smart money’s heading for the exits though:
“only 27% of money managers responding to Barron’s fall 2019 Big Money Poll call themselves bullish about the market’s prospects for the next 12 months, down from 49% in our spring survey and 56% a year ago.
“The latest reading is the lowest percentage of bulls in more than 20 years.”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/barrons-big-money-poll-why-wall-street-is-scared-of-washington-51572045878
“Why has the US stock market hit record highs while investor confidence, reacting to a worsening economic outlook, has deteriorated?
““It’s the most frequently asked question we’ve had this year,” Mr Woodard said. “Investors we speak to are incredibly cautious. They see the market rally but they don’t trust it.”
“…Nervous investors have continued to rush to their favourite retreats, including cash and low-risk bonds, sending yields plummeting. This has swelled the universe of negatively yielding debt to $13.5tn. “It’s hard to think of a better measure of pessimism about global growth,” Mr Woodard said…
“A series of rate cuts by the Fed — including a quarter percentage point cut on Wednesday, the third this year — and cautious optimism that the US and China will resolve the trade stand-off have pushed stocks higher.
“The Fed’s decision to increase temporary liquidity injections to $120bn a day from the current $75bn have also added further support for stocks, said Nick Maroutsos, co-head of global bonds at asset manager Janus Henderson…
“…stock buybacks — [also] continue to provide support to the stock market…
“Last year, companies in the S&P 500 spent a record $806bn buying back shares. Activity this year has slowed slightly, but remains on track to be one of the most active on record.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/3d277df2-fbfd-11e9-98fd-4d6c20050229
Either today is the ATH before collapse, or were expecting a 50% crash to shake of a little retirement funds, before recovery.
But, historically, haven’t analysts missed turning points badly? It seems like there was a Time Magazine cover about the great bull market, just before the stock market crashed one time. Maybe we really don’t know. Individual buyers seem to be only a small share of the stock market. Companies buying each other and their own stock back seem to play an outsized role.
An analyst gets paid for the analysis, not for getting it right.
And then for subtle dissection of just why they got it wrong.
A bit like a surgeon with a poor patient mortality record, who is still retained by the hospital.
As documented before one of the biggest economic reversals of the last century:
“There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue.”
… Sec. of Treasury, Andrew Mellon,
September 1929.
“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau”.
… Yale Economist Irving Fisher,
October 16th 1929.
In 1841, Charles Mackay wrote a famous book on “The Madness of Crowds”. In our modern world, it seems a “crowd” of economists need have but two members.
I expect that these highly placed economists were frequently quoted in the press of the day. Politicians no doubt listened to them.
ATH = All Time High
I think you and Fast Eddy may be right. Years’ back, I thought that there could be somewhat of a retreat before then, but I now think that the retreats are of the 2008-2009 type.
So if one sells real companies where does one go? Fiat currency? Bonds? Gold? Well gold sounds like a good idea until one remembers where it is stored, e.g. Fort Knox. Not sure what kind of facility this is, but in addition to a depository, the web page as a formidable MI Abrams tank on a pedestal at the entrance. Assuming there are a few more of those on base along with some ammunition, stealing that gold is difficult. Now, how does the average individual reach that level of safeguard. Even in a vault, well, I will give the edge to the guy with a tank. Netherlands repatriated their gold, it is going into the middle of military base, seems like a number of people have the same idea.
There doesn’t seem to be anything easy. Farm land has been good until one tries to harvest something off the land in mud. Millennial Farmer has a video from the cab of his $500K combine sliding side-wise down a hill towards a ditch. He backed up and went around that part of the field, not worth the risk. Or, just because one sows does not mean one shall reap.
Dennis L.
Roman soldiers kept their silver pay in the centre of their fortress HQ’s. Just imagine trying to rob a whole Legion: the accountant probably took good care to be honest, too…..
And I remember one fortress, a dismal place near a remote edge of the Empire, where the soldiers kept all their silver, because they had nothing to spend it on. Until an enterprising trader saw this as a business opportunity, and returned with a bunch of tents, a supply of good food, good wine, and “hospitality”.
His initiative thrived, and the tents became wooden houses, then stone houses, and then he found he had built a city. 1800 years later, I was born there, in Colonia Mancunia.
British Virgin Islands?
I was curious, too. It’s Manchester (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mancunian). We get fascinating daily history and literature lessons from you, Robert!
I just thought id post this for anyone thats interested showing that “BAU” can continue for a lot longer than we think https://blogs.imf.org/2019/02/05/cashing-in-how-to-make-negative-interest-rates-work/
Great! Another floor on interest rates is that it isn’t easy lowering peoples salary (you almost have to have them losing their job and accepting a new with less pay).
When/if rates go much lower than price inflation people will hoard stuff as an investment, but that has limited.
Encouraging “spend your money now,” I suppose.
I discovered a different way that intermittent renewables can cause grid failures. Indirectly, these might be expected to cause fires.
I was reading an article called, Connectors — The Weak Link: Increased operating temperatures are cause for concern
I am wondering if renewable energy is being dumped on existing transmission and, in the process, overloading the transmission lines at the times of day when the intermittent electricity is available. It is expensive and time consuming to add new transmission lines. Why not just use existing lines in excess of their capacity, for part of the day? (The author doesn’t say this, I do.)
The article is about the danger of overloaded aluminum transmission lines. These transmission lines have been designed to operate in a range of 40-60 degrees C, but with the extra load the temperature can go over 93 degrees C. The problem is that above 93 degrees C, the aluminum used in the wires melts. The transmission lines don’t necessarily fail immediately, but over time, the connectors especially tend to fail.
Also:
and
It seems like this could be an explanation for some of the grid failures we have been seeing in California.
“grid failures”
I would suspect falling lines that start fires rather than the electrical system failing.
Sorry, that is what I meant. I will change it.
The aluminium is cheap but does not like too much heat. The cost of copper is like 10x.
“10x”
I don’t think so, but it is still substantial.
http://www.customelectricalia.com/copper-vs-aluminum-wiring/
Aluminum wiring can be half the cost of copper wiring. When a large amount of wiring is needed saving half the cost can be a huge benefit over copper wiring. When a large amount of wiring is needed saving half the cost can be a huge benefit over copper.
Gail, please do not say melts. It changes mechanical properties, it weakens and stretches.
Sorry. Wrong word. “It begins to anneal.”
For what it is worth, this is a link to the 2018 -2019 Transmission Plan for California, approved by the Board of CA ISO. http://www.caiso.com/Documents/ISO_BoardApproved-2018-2019_Transmission_Plan.pdf
The plan talks about “modeled overloads” starting at page 75, and “contingencies causing thermal overload” on page 77.
I didn’t see anything about differences in expected generation by time of day.
“differences in expected generation”
it is mentioned in the fine print. That’s quite a document you found.
Perhaps you can figure out more from the report than I could. The CAISO website also has a lot of stuff up on it.
Back in 2016, I found a presentation by Mark Rothleder, VP of Market Quality and Renewable Integration of CAISO up on the EIA website. It is quite interesting.
https://www.eia.gov/conference/2016/pdf/presentations/rothleder.pdf
A more recent presentation by Mark Lederer I found:
http://www.caiso.com/Documents/Briefing-Post-2020-GridOperationalOutlook-Presentation-Sep2019.pdf
What I meant by ‘reasonable’ was that groups could assess their precarious and worsening situation and act accordingly and decisively, rather than fantasising as we seem to be doing – GND, techno and revolutionary, even Mars fantasies to put everything right, and so on.
There was of course a great deal of killing and enslavement, always – that goes without saying, being part of basic human nature.
There were also tribes which committed suicide rather than be enslaved: both male and female lines were extinguished. It was actually the women who had the job of doing all the killing: they killed their husbands, then the kids, then themselves – brave people indeed.
Tribal suicide does’nt seem like a good way of propelling the genes into the future.
“Tribal suicide doesn’t seem like a good way of propelling the genes into the future.”
That’s true, but the downside (from the gene’s viewpoint) is that all the males are killed (like the story in Numbers) but the young women carry the genes of the defeated warriors. Except for Y.
From the article I posted, there is genetic evidence that a high fraction of male lines ended this way between the start of agriculture and the rise of states.
I understand your argument for war, seems logical. This not “both male and female lines were extinguished”
At the level of a tribe, one can make wise and hard decisions and implement them: but at the level of complexity we have attained, this is probably impossible.
Complexity takes one further, but makes a change of course more difficult.
Tribes can also take really huge losses, so long as a sufficient number of warriors/farmers and breeding females survive.
With our very advanced job specialisation and a long period of education for most vital technical roles, we cannot.
Unlike tribal people, we are not basically inter-changeable.
“At the level of a tribe, one can make wise and hard decisions”
I really doubt this. Our evolved psychological mechanisms are at a level well below our rational mind. On the other hand, going to war with a 50% chance of being wiped out is rational from the gene’s viewpoint. (Due to the genes carried by the young women, who are taken by the winners as booty.)
Otherwise, good points.
I’d agree that from the genetic point of view that the survival of females and loss of the males might be no great issue – in fact, rather good to have the females introduced to a new group, and then further scattered by later conflict.
Our spaniel bitch, Princess Tilly, wanted to mate with Zola, the handsome, sleek, labrador – if he approached, it was ears down, bottom up and a ‘come hither’ look in her eyes.
But alas, she was scheduled – fated – to be put in a cage, and mated with Grifter, champion spaniel of the County of Norfolk, of great fame and renown, whether she wanted to or not.
This produced my current faithful hound, Sir Sancho, who is a magnificent specimen – strong, intelligent, fast and brave.
We are just like that: products of the rape of countless captive females in the dim, the very dim, mists of time……..
” dim, mists of time”
You have the right concept. But it was happening in South America not many decades ago and may still be going on somewhere.
“The percentage of females in the lowland villages who have been abducted is significantly higher: 17% compared to 11.7% in the highland villages.” (Napoleon Chagnon quoted at Sexual Polarization in Warrior Cultures)
Human history and prehistory is a grim story. I think we want to do everything we can to prevent such times from happening again.
He does not like cold cii mate:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/31/us/politics/trump-new-york-florida-primary-residence.html
Supposedly NY courts will prosecute Trump once he’s out of office, so I’m wondering if this move on paper is an attempt to avoid some of NY’s laws for NY residents.
Interesting thought. Florida is less Anti-Trump.
I think it is very simple Federal State and Local Tax Exception(SALT) exemption cap.
https://money.cnn.com/2017/12/20/pf/salt-deductions-new-tax-plan/index.html
A very “tax the rich” scheme. I was surprised he waited this long.
No income tax in FL. He is already paying the (lower) property taxes.
T2M
The cold weather is not suitable for the elderly.
Investors to Big Oil: Make it rain
Investors want just one thing from the world’s biggest oil companies: cold, hard cash. But it is becoming harder for the oil giants to deliver.
Companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell PLC and BP PLC have long used hefty and reliable dividends to keep investors on board in a sector that has volatile profits tied to commodity prices. The importance of the payments has only grown recently, as investors have become wary of the companies due to short-term concerns about oil overabundance, and long-term fears that climate change and electric vehicles cloud the future of fossil fuels.
But as the companies throw money at investors through dividends and share buybacks to keep them from fleeing, the payouts have begun to strain their balance sheets.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/investors-to-big-oil-make-it-rain/ar-AAJGozm?li=BBnbfcN
I think it is more nuanced that what this article makes it out. There is a price point that the consumer can afford and what producers need. Very likely the producers need higher prices but in order to get higher prices they crash the system and get less. They are on a tight rope juggling chainsaws. My favorite part is the mentioning of oil “over abundance”, I was under the impression demand is going down as economies contract.
Thoughts?
The quote talks about “short term overabundance,” but people do not understand what really appears to be overabundance is really an expression of lack of demand, because of too much wage disparity. It is frustrating.
“Since Venezuela’s economic collapse began under the presidency of Nicolás Maduro in 2016, violence, insecurity and a severe lack of basic food and medicine have caused more than 4 million people to flee. An estimated 1.5 million have settled in Colombia.
“About 59,500 have settled in Maicao, smaller in size and with less public infrastructure than the more popular migrant entry point of Cúcuta, and it’s struggling to cope.”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/nov/01/living-a-daily-tragedy-venezuelans-struggle-to-survive-in-colombia
“At least 23 people have been killed during protests in Chile against the government’s economic policies. In a statement on social media Thursday, the Chilean Prosecutor’s Office said the deaths occurred between Oct. 19, when a state of emergency was declared, and Oct. 26…
“…the identity of a protestor who was burnt to death has not been determined, but an investigation is underway.”
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/chile-death-toll-in-anti-government-protests-hits-23/1632460
“At least two people have been killed in Bolivia in clashes between supporters and opponents of President Evo Morales, the government says… Tension has been running high for the past 10 days following the disputed presidential election results.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-50248739
“Friday of protests across three major capitals and dozens of cities shook the Middle East and North Africa, with young people draped in the flags of their nations demanding a departure of ruling elites in Lebanon, Iraq and Algeria…
“…the root of the discontent is a lack of economic opportunities.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/middle-east-protests-lebanon-iraq-algeria-arab-spring-sudan-a9181411.html%3famp
Low oil and gas prices are no doubt part of this. Low gas prices affect Algeria. Its gas production was already down a bit in 2018. With prices lower in 2019, we should not be surprised if production falls further in 2019. Iraq is, of course, suffering from low oil prices.
I am not sure what Lebanon’s problems are, except for too many people. Resources per capita falls as population rises.
“Lebanon’s problems”
I have used Lebanon as an example in one of my evolutionary psychology articles without going into a deep study of why they have had so many problems. It would make an interesting case study in the light of EP both about why they problems, why they got out, and what the current prospects are. But I think you are dead-on correct about population pressure.
The country is caught between the Christian groups that followed Europe into smaller numbers of children and Arab Islamics who had large families. The first massive breakdown happened when the Islamic population became the majority.
Here (with a few typo fixes) is what I wrote in a 2005 version of the article:
So the huge US “tribe” was attacked on 9/11 by OBL’s tiny “Al Qaeda tribe” and went into war mode due to being attacked.
Additionally, though the US has not suffered a lot in total income, in the last few decades there has been a massive internal shift in income with a large fraction of the population facing bleak times. (Few starve in the US, but the war-meme behavioral switch mechanism needs only a relative drop to be activated.) To the extent a substantial fraction of the population faces reduced prospects or thinks they are, they are that much more willing to support war and/or circulate xenophobic memes such as the rapture/Armageddon and fulfillment of biblical prophecy.
How did the US get into this Iraq mess?
Once a tribe is attacked (and goes into war mode) rationality really suffers. It’s not different from the damage to rationality that comes from the build-up of war memes in a tribe with bleak prospects but it happens much faster. Under those circumstances, tribes follow leaders who are often less rational than their supporters. In this case, the US had the misfortune of a leader who had a preconceived notion of which country he wanted to attack. Also, perceptions of being under attack are more important than reality in activating behavior switches. “All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked.” [17] In the months leading up to the attack on Iraq, the message put out by the US administration was “Be afraid, be very afraid, we are about to be attacked with Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction!”
So the US military overran Iraq with high support from the US population. Of course other than being Muslims (and not even very radical ones at that), the Iraqi tribes had nothing to do with 9/11. Still, had the US been able to restore electricity and bring up the economic prospects in Iraq in a few months, they might have gotten away with it since a fair fraction of the population didn’t care for the former leader.
But the US failed to improve or even restore the Iraq economy to the depressed pre-war levels. Now the bad economy in Iraq is a powerful psychological mechanism supporting war memes, plus the fact that Iraq was attacked which turns on war mode in the population and wrecks their rationality just like the 9/11 attack did in the US. The ongoing upheaval, especially the meme-driven suicide attacks, makes the economic improvements needed to shut off war mode next to impossible. Of course in a generation, the people get used to the low economic level and some minor economic up-trend could shut off war mode. That is what happened in Lebanon and probably will happen in Iraq for those willing to wait 25 years.
The UN data indicate estimates population growth rates as follows, for 2019 compared to 2018:
Algeria 2.0%
Iraq 2.5%
Lebanon In recent years increasing, but in 2019 very slightly downward. Close to level. 0.0%
World 0.9%
US 0.6%
Population increase is ok as long as the economy is increasing faster. If the economy is declining, the change in income per capita goes down. That sets off the “bleak future” detectors and that which follows, xenophobia, making irrational leaders attractive, and wars or similar social disruptions. Bummer, but when you think about the evolutionary history of our species, it becomes obvious.
Keeping the income per capita steady or rising will keep these mechanisms off. Unfortunately, I can’t see how this could be done in many places due to lower family size being inconsistent with culture and poor prospects for economic growth.
Ideas on this topic would be highly appreciated.
The way “not enough to go around” seems to play out is violence and extreme political groups. Also, attempts at migration with the countries that the migrants are going to, not being willing to accept the immigrants.
Often, the immediate cause of the problem is price of commodity exports that are not sufficiently high. Or a drop in commodity exports. With the low price, governments cannot collect enough taxes to provide the usual benefits for citizens.
We are seeing more and more evidence of the “not enough resources per capita” problem in many countries around the world.
The mind boggles at what the future holds, as clearly this is a tiny foretaste of what is to come.
The madness can only grow.
But, I like to take comfort from what Solzhenitsyn said, that even in Stalin’s Russia there were always many decent people who behaved well and kept things going. It;s not much, but it’s something.
One just has to hope to bump into more of them than the other sort….
Yes, indeed. Perhaps some of us will find the courage to remain beacons of civility even in our darkest hour as a species.
“violence and extreme political groups”
It is exactly what you would expect when mapping the stone age response to a resource crisis into today.
Actually, I suspect they were often much more reasonable and pragmatic than us: you need mass media, propaganda and ideologies to make people really violent and crazy.
We have many records of more primitive societies noting a resource crisis and shipping out say 30% of the young people to go and look for new lands.
Also, denying food to the uselessly frail elderly and telling them ‘It’s time to go to the gods ‘ – Jared Diamond has examples of this.
And, of course, infanticide.
All very rational responses to a resource crisis and over-shoot. Framed maybe in religious terms, but still very sensible indeed.
More sensible at this juncture – than believing that innovation or Marxism, revolution or whatever, will do the trick on this over-populated and abused planet.
Charles Hall has proposed that neanderthal man was more sane than homo sapiens.
“We have many records of more primitive societies noting a resource crisis and shipping out say 30% of the young people to go and look for new lands.”
Which is exactly how the Ancient Greeks colonised much of the Mediterranean littoral. When a city state grew too large (so large there was not enough room in the agora for the adult free males), it founded a colony. And the reason they grew too large was that they mostly took care of their old, young, and infirm.
But in parts of the world where there was no empty land to colonise, the population was controlled by social custom, or, failing that, by war. And if it came to war, the barbarians usually won, and the cities burned. I fear that is the fate of our cities, unless we wake up and fight back.
“often much more reasonable”
I doubt it. Most of the selection for the psychological traits happened well before writing. But an oral account from those times made it into the bible.
Book of Numbers, from The Holy Bible, King James Version Chapter 3 vs 17:
They warred against Mid’ian, as the LORD commanded Moses, and slew every male.8: They slew the kings of Mid’ian with the rest of their slain, Evi, Rekem, Zur, Hur, and Reba, the five kings of Mid’ian; and they also slew Balaam the son of Be’or with the sword.9: And the people of Israel took captive the women of Mid’ian and their little ones; and they took as booty all their cattle, their flocks, and all their goods.
10:
All their cities in the places where they dwelt, and all their encampments, they burned with fire,
11:
and took all the spoil and all the booty, both of man and of beast
12:
Then they brought the captives and the booty and the spoil to Moses, and to Elea’zar the priest, and to the congregation of the people of Israel, at the camp on the plains of Moab by the Jordan at Jericho.
13:
Moses, and Elea’zar the priest, and all the leaders of the congregation,went forth to meet them outside the camp.
14:
And Moses was angry with the officers of the army, the commanders of thousands and the commanders of hundreds, who had come from service in the war.
15:
Moses said to them, “Have you let all the women live?”
16:
Behold, these caused the people of Israel, by the counsel of Balaam, to act treacherously against the LORD in the matter of Pe’or, and so the plague came among the congregation of the LORD.
17:
Now, therefore, kill every male among the little ones, and kill every woman who has known man by lying with him.
18:
But all the young girls who have not known man by lying with him, keep alive for yourselves.
There is also this:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04375-6
Agriculture was really rough on male lineages, we are descended from 17 women of that time for one man. The men killed each other off from the start of agriculture to the rise of states.
I am wondering if the recent changes that have adversely affected life expectancy have affected men’s life expectancy more than women’s?
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/09/us-life-expectancy-has-been-declining-heres-why.html
Drug overdoses, liver disease, and suicide rates seem to be the major causes of men’s falling life expectancies. These seem to be the modern way excess men are disappearing, probably more than for women.
Yes, we have regressed back into savagery hidden behind the luxuries and comforts of a, from nature, detached life in IC.
No proper hunter-gatherer group would ever wreak havoc onto nature. Only organized society does that.
Yes, our ancestors were not the Stone Age savages we portray them to be. Oh no, the actual truth is:
WE ARE THE SAVAGES!
And to that I’d like to add:
IC IS MASKED SAVAGERY!
Based on what I have read, hunter-gatherer groups would burn down whole forests, so as to drive out game they wanted to capture. The previously forested area might also regrow in a more open way, giving access to other desired types of foods. By using this appoach, they would inadvertently change the local climate.
Aren’t what we are doing just a continuation of what hunter-gatherer groups did? Perhaps we managed to put off the next ice age and make the earth more inhabitable for humans, as least for a while. But there may be a limit on how long our luck can hold out. The climate keeps changing on its own. Human actions interact with these changes. Unfortunately, we were never given a magic wand to remake the climate the way we would like it to be.
Well, there is the little matter of scale. Hunter-gatherer groups were tiny and total humans was also a miniscule number. Ecological damage had time to recover. The scale now is many orders of magnitude greater. So “just a continuation” is a severe understatement of the situation.
By the way, I doubt we’ve made the earth more inhabitable for humans, or any other species. Technology has enabled humans to thrive in more areas (at least in terms of numbers) but that isn’t the same as enduring habitat.
Then: burn forest, hunt animals, forest grows back.
Now: remove trees, burn the rest, grow crops for a few years (remove harvest), pasture animals for a few years (remove harvest). Land depleted.
Dear Keith
With respect, I would be a lot more inclined to your
views if you supported them with true history, rather
than with mythology, and fabricated mythology to boot.
“true history”
Most of the evolution that led to these psychological traits to a resource crisis happened in prehistory. It seems likely that the human response to resource problems dates back to the split with the Chimpanzees since Jane Goodall observed something very much like human warfare when one group wiped out another. (But there are the equally related Bonobos who don’t seem to engage in this behavior.)
There are lots of examples of stone age people fighting over resources, right up to the near present. See Azar Gat on this subject.
When you get to history, you need to be very careful in mapping the wars where we have historical records to psychological traits evolved before agriculture. (The historical record starts when states got organized some thousands of years after agriculture started.)
While we do have records of wars, the crop yields before is seldom mentioned. We can substitute weather for which there are tree ring records. Try:
https://www.academia.edu/12830082/The_causality_analysis_of_climate_change_and_large-scale_human_crisis
I have pointed people to this on OFW previously, “climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. climate-driven economy | Granger Causality Analysis | grain price. The same author wrote about weather driven crisis in China.”
Sorry if I offended you by quoting the Bible, but just because a story is there doesn’t mean the history is complexly bogus. Besides, young women being considered booty was so obvious that it is not often recorded in history records and this is one of the few places it is mentioned even in passing. There is only one hit on the net for “young women as war booty” and that was in a comment. “young women” “war booty” gives some 180 hits. If you want to look at recent history on this topic, there is considerable.
For Keith
Many thanks for your most calm and reasoned response. My criticism is refuted, and I withdraw it.
“criticism’
Actually, thanks for the criticism. Got me to express the ideas better (I hope).
Thank you both, and Gail and so many regular commenters who are role models for carrying on respectful intellectual discussions with humility, despite the occasional barb thrown your way. As others have noted, this is one of several reasons that make OFW a special place.
It’s always that dang per capita that messes things up.
“Nowadays, China is still trying to build wealth, but it’s doing the wrong way… by pursuing investments that do not raise the country’s productive capacity and growth potential.
“Like bridges and roads to nowhere; like factories that no longer produce competitive products. Like apartments where nobody lives.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2019/10/31/china-is-heading-for-a-long-growth-recession-not-because-of-the-trade-war/#6452438e649c
This story explains what is happening many places, not just China.
Recycling paper and plastic was another bridge to nowhere for China. It required machinery and workers, but was discontinued January 1, 2018, because financially it was a disaster. It was using energy resources (mostly coal) that could be used elsewhere in an unproductive way. Stopping the recycling meant scrapping the machinery and trying to find jobs for the workers elsewhere.
With either literal bridges to nowhere are built or unproductive industries like recycling soiled paper and plastic are started, the result is the same. Ultimately, workers need to be laid off, and these layoffs lead to less demand for end products, like cell phones and automobiles. It is the lack of demand that pulls economies down. There are likely to be debt defaults as well, if debt was used to finance these unproductive endeavors.
Recycling paper and plastic seemed to work when (1) oil prices were high and (2) collection at the front end was kept very separate, so that soiled materials and broken glass were not problems. But front-end separation required a lot of separate trucks and extra workers, so it was too energy intensive to really work, especially as energy prices fell. So the innovation of collecting “mixed recyclables” was started. The energy cost of separating these was overwhelming, compared to the benefit of materials after recycling.
As far as I can gather, the recycling industry in the UK relies on very poorly paid immigrants as sorters, living in terrible conditions exploited mostly by other foreigners -African and Indian slum landlords. Not exactly the bright Green Future….
Recycling production equipment that is outdated takes a lot of energy too. When the move of manufacturing to China first started they would take any old production line. So much old junk went they had a hard time disposing of it. Production lines that are prototyped with alpha products in the USA can be depreciated after two years. China wil not sllow import of any equipment older than two years and has not fora decade or so.
Even Vietnam doesn’t allow production equipment older than ten years into the country.
Politicians will always love infrastructure projects, and call them ‘investments’ when they are not.
Early 20th-century policies for a 21st-century crisis….
“Asia’s export powerhouses saw factory activity shrink further in October, as cooling global demand and trade tensions keep policymakers busy ramping up support for their fragile economies to help dodge recession.
“Fresh concerns over whether Washington and Beijing can iron out their difference resurfaced on Friday…”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy/asias-factory-pain-deepens-on-trade-war-global-slowdown-idUKKBN1XB359
“Fresh evidence of the impact of global trade wars on the eurozone has emerged with official figures revealing growth in the 19-nation single currency bloc was 0.2% in the three months to September.
“Data from the EU’s statistical agency, Eurostat, showed activity expanded by 0.2% in the latest quarter – unchanged on the three months to June.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/31/us-trade-war-with-china-takes-its-toll-on-eurozone-economy
Ouch! 0.2% isn’t above stall speed. I don’t think estimate of GDP are even accurate within 0.2%. US revisions often exceed 0.2%.
““The bad news on the Indian economy just got worse. The core infrastructure industries’ output—measuring a basket of eight sectors accounting for two-fifth of India’s factory output—contracted to the lowest in at least 14 years [-5.2%], pointing to a deepening industrial slowdown.”
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/output-of-8-infra-industries-shrink-5-2-in-september-11572526252301.html
“The tepid demand growth for diesel played out across the Indian fuel retail industry, with diesel demand growing by only 1.05% to 41,296 thousand metric tones (tmt) in the first six months of the current financial year. This comes amid the worst slump in almost two decades for the country’s auto sector that shows no sign of letting up.”
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-sees-diesel-demand-slowdown-11572573084533.html
“Foreign investors’ net sales of Indian rupee company bonds rose to the highest in five months, as the slowest economic growth in six years and credit market strains weighed on sentiment.
“Overseas funds pulled 26.4 billion rupees ($372.2 million) in October, making it the seventh straight month of outflow…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-01/global-funds-dump-india-company-bonds-as-credit-worries-persist?srnd=fixed-income
Of course, economists are still looking for India to be one of the countries pulling the world economy forward. Some places are needed to balance out the low growth of the Eurozone!
India is an environmental and over-population catastrophe on an enormous scale.
“The Council of Europe has slammed Greece for the conditions migrants are living under on the Aegean islands, with the Commissioner for Human Rights saying people are now in a “struggle for survival”. Dunja Mijatović spoke of the dramatic deterioration in the living conditions for the people who have been living on the islands over the past 12 months…
“Calling it “an explosive situation”, she highlighted the unhygienic conditions in which migrants are being kept, in vastly overcrowded camps.”
https://www.euronews.com/2019/10/31/it-s-become-a-struggle-for-survival-athens-told-to-act-on-migrant-camps-on-greek-islands
“Hundreds of migrants from the Middle East and Asia living in a freezing camp in the forests of Bosnia are short of food and bedding and at growing risk as the bitter Balkan winter approaches, aid workers say.
“Bosnia has faced an upsurge in migrant numbers since Croatia, Hungary and Slovenia closed their borders against undocumented immigration.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-migrants-bosnia-camp-widerimag/winter-poses-new-threat-to-migrants-in-bosnian-forest-camp-idUKKBN1XB3J3?il=0
Simple game theory. The worse the conditions in the migrant camps become, the greater the pressure from globalist “do gooders” to speed their relocation to the European welfare states, to skimp on the vetting that they are legitimate asylum seekers ad not economic migrants or terrorists, and in general to give them exactly what they migrated for.
The dominant strategy for the migrants, therefore, is to make those conditions as bad as possible, to expedite their relocation to the places they have come to destroy. And the globalists are complicit in this, because the destruction of the West is exactly their game plan.
I don’t believe they want the destruction of the West, but only to keep mass consumer demand up in the face of demographic changes – sadly, they fail to appreciate the inevitable social consequences of their actions.
The new official ideology is ‘Right to Migrate’ anyway: no need now to prove actual persecution in one’s home country, merely the desire to ‘have a better life’.
Having way too much population from poor places who are envious of living is better places, is a huge problem. The underlying problem is exploding global population. Most of the excess is from Africa and parts of Asia, but we in the West have been unwilling/unable to prevent this situation. I am afraid I don’t have a solution. As Robert Firth points out, Global DoGooders tend to make the situation worse.
“Zimbabwe’s Gross domestic product is seen contracting by as much as 10% by the end of the 2019 financial year owing to bad weather and power shortages as the economic crisis besetting the economy worsens. Well-placed sources this week said Zimbabwe’s debt rescheduling plan — initially expected in March next year — is not succeeding…”
https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2019/11/01/zim-economy-seen-shrinking-by-
“South Africa’s state power utility Eskom is the biggest challenge facing the country. Mess up Eskom, and you mess up the country. And it looks as though key players are doing just that…
“What we see in Chile,where public anger has spilled out onto the streets, is what can be expected to emerge as ordinary South Africans experience the true implications of this failure to decisively resolve the crisis.”
https://menafn.com/1099206621/How-failing-power-utility-is-fuelling-South-Africas-economic-crisis
“A record 45 million people across southern Africa face severe food shortages in the next six months, with around a quarter of them currently enduring drought-induced “crisis” food insecurity, three United Nations agencies warned on Thursday.”
https://www.sapeople.com/2019/11/01/record-45-million-people-in-southern-africa-facing-food-crisis-in-next-6-months/
If people of South Africa could afford higher electricity prices, all of its problems would be solve. Coal prices would rise, and coal mining could be profitable, allowing more electricity production. Or some alternative might work.
“Power shortages” sound a whole lot like too little affordable energy per capita.
Too high insurance can make California uninhabitable.
http://theconversation.com/in-fire-prone-california-many-residents-cant-afford-wildfire-insurance-119451
The author acknowledges the problems related to flood insurance, encouraging building on a flood plain, he does nothing about it. Insurer of “last resort” becomes the only insurer. I have seen happen in Florida with hurricane insurance.
Wild fires are something public service announcements, building codes and governments can encourage/do better practices. Building safe zones around structures/towns, metal roofs, limiting the fuel load and such.
Instead because he wants mandatory insurance for all, it will be cheaper. Leading back to building on a flood plain. Or did I miss something?
I seem remember when the insurance company would send people around to say if you do this the premium will go down. Like replace this fuse box with a breaker box, if you install hurricane resistant windows/doors, remove that tree so it is not going to fall on the house, …
Then again I remember when every small town had a local insurance agent.
T2M
We need animals to control the spread of plants:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/31/goats-save-ronald-reagan-library-wildfire
It is stupid to build where the risk of fire is high. It is also stupid to build in flood plains.
Insurance companies, if given a chance, will charge fair rates for these risks, discouraging these practices.
The problem, over and over again, is that governmental agencies are soft hearted. The effectively say, “These poor people can’t afford high rates. Let’s socialize the losses. We will charge these folks low rates, either through a Fair Plan (fire risk) or through a subsidized governmental Flood Insurance plan.”
So the building in inappropriate places goes on. No one worries about fire prevention, though proper maintenance of long distance transmission lines and removing brush near the lines. They also won’t agree to controlled burns or logging in forests. The risk gets higher and higher, because with all of the insurance, it all is taken care of by someone else.
E. g. the Czech Republic often suffers from floods due to its geomorphology. The use of flood maps made insuring some properties impossible.
https://uzitocna.pravda.sk/peniaze/clanok/22005-poistky-podla-povodnovej-mapy-su-dvakrat-vyssie/
Allowing the people to build houses where they suffer from frequent damage adds costs to the state budget. The tornados are specific for the open plains of the USA. On the other hand, the damage by water for countries like Slovakia, where the houses are located on the banks of the small streams in narrow valleys, which in case of heavy rains change into voracious deluge.
The Spanish have a proverb: “Take what you want, said God, and pay for it.” The modern welfare state seems to have turned this around: “Take what you want, and we will pay for it.” Of course, those who run the state pay for nothing; they simply rob from those one or two tiers down.
History provides one workable solution for this problem, and it involves public executions regularly attended by Les Tricoteuses. Otherwise, it is hard indeed to craft a polity in which the top and the bottom will not conspire against the middle. As is happening today all over the US.
The insurance companies have no problem insuring in high fire areas. They just increase the rates. It would seem common sense to build structures out of fire resistant materials in a area that has burnt down once twice or three times but thats not the way it works. Money buys resources if enough of it flows the resources required for a structure are replaceable. Trees are living creatures that are very pleasant to live with. People pay more for that.
These wolves survived the very large and hot fire that engulfed them in the underground dens created for them. The structures created fir human habitation, not so much.
https://denver.cbslocal.com/2012/06/12/wolves-at-sanctuary-in-bellvue-survive-high-park-fire/
“…Lorie Logan, the interim manager of the New York Fed’s open market trading desk, put out a note [re the Fed’s repo injections] assuring people that the Fed “intends to implement monetary policy in a framework based on ‘an ample supply of reserves’”.
“This Halloween season though, the real menace in the attic may be foreign exchange derivatives, or the FX swaps market. The BIS put out a useful paper on this black hole, called “FX swaps and forwards: missing global debt?”, by Claudio Borio, Robert McCauley and Patrick McGuire.
“The authors say: “A key finding is that non-banks outside the US owe large sums of dollars through these instruments. The total is of a size similar to, and probably exceeding, the $10.7tn of on-balance-sheet dollar debt.”
“FX swaps contracts allow a non-US entity to exchange non-dollar cash flows for dollar cash flows. Thanks to the magic of derivatives accounting, only the variances in the relative value of the exchanged currencies (or “replacement cost values”) need to be disclosed by the banks mediating these transactions.
““These transactions,” the authors explain, “are functionally equivalent to borrowing and lending in the cash market. Yet the corresponding debt is not shown on the balance sheet and thus remains obscured.”
“Just one little problem. “Unlike most derivatives, the full notional amount, not the net amount as in a contract for differences, is exchanged at maturity.” So the borrower, such as, say, a Japanese bank or a Chinese corporation, has to settle the full value before entering into a new FX swap transaction.
“Not an issue most of the time. But as the authors note, “the short maturity of most FX swaps and forwards can create big maturity mismatches and hence generate large liquidity demands, especially during times of stress. Most spectacular was the funding squeeze suffered by European banks during the GFC.”
“Today the FX swaps market is much bigger than it was in 2008.”
https://www.ft.com/content/f35c9986-24b2-4364-8613-12476f2a3e93
“The record U.S. corporate debt boom is about to be put to the test.
“Companies that loaded up on cheap and abundant debt during the past decade will face their first significant hurdle of the cycle as a $4 trillion mound of maturing bonds come due over the next five years, analysts from Oxford Economics warned on Thursday.
“U.S. companies already are seeing declining profits and rising leverage…”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americas-fragile-corporate-debt-pile-faces-a-massive-4-trillion-refinancing-test-oxford-economics-warns-2019-10-31
“…we are staring at the prospect of yet another recession, with all indicators pointing to an even scarier situation than in 2008. In the last global financial crisis, Central Banks were able to respond quickly and aggressively, and they only managed to reduce the effects, and not avert the situation.
“An asset bubble triggered the 2008 recession, but this time, it’s the ballooning global debt levels that threaten to spark off the fire.”
https://www.maravipost.com/is-the-next-financial-crisis-around-the-corner/
I looked up the BIS article mentioned in the excerpt: FX and forwards: missing global debt.
I notice a quote given is directly copied from the article:
My concern is that the BIS article is from two years ago: September 2017. I wouldn’t be surprised if the indications are high now, as a $ amount. Whatever it is, it is a huge amount.
My friend who is a quant says he thinks that these issues are part of the problems that the repo market has been having recently.
“Just one little problem. “Unlike most derivatives, the full notional amount, not the net amount as in a contract for differences, is exchanged at maturity.” So the borrower, such as, say, a Japanese bank or a Chinese corporation, has to settle the full value before entering into a new FX swap transaction.”
I dont know a lot about this but the very large “margins” ala leverage that are allowed in FX up to including 1000 would seem to negate this.
Reply to Bill 🙂 AIR HYDRO POWER – perhaps the only way to save the planet (abstract) https://bari-x-andrew.livejournal.com/18094.html
It looks like this technology has a ways to go. The link you gave is to a 2014 article.
I see a website up at airhes.com, with a photo of the Russian inventor. The inventor is given only as “Andrew.” That seems to be your name. So my guess is that you are the inventor. The website seems to be trying to raise funds to support the new invention.
Among other things, the site says, “For the brave (now the project is free for all, but frozen due to lack of investment).”
It looks like much of the material about the proposed new technology is in Russia.
I notice you have a nice quote from Bill Gates up in the material you link to. It is from a 2010 TED talk he gave. This is a link to the transcript: https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates/transcript
At 11:38, Bill Gates says,
I would like the quote better, if it weren’t approaching 10 years old. But the point hasn’t changed as much as a person would like.
Don’t worry… Monsanto will gladly grow all of your “food”!
https://news.yahoo.com/u-farm-bankruptcies-surge-24-160304409.html
Bloomberg) — Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here.
U.S. farm bankruptcies in September surged 24% to the highest since 2011 amid strains from President Donald Trump’s trade war with China and a year of wild weather.
Growers are also becoming increasingly dependent on trade aid and other federal programs for income, figures showed in a report by the American Farm Bureau Federation, the nation’s largest general farm organization.
The squeeze on farmers underscores the toll China’s retaliatory tariffs have taken on a critical Trump constituency as the president enters a re-election campaign and a fight to stave off impeachment. The figures also highlight the importance of a “phase one” deal the administration is currently negotiating with Beijing to increase agriculture imports in return for a pause in escalating U.S. levies.
Trump-Xi Trade Meeting in Doubt After Chile Cancels APEC Summit
Almost 40% of projected farm profit this year will come from trade aid, disaster assistance, federal subsidies and insurance payments, according to the report, based on Department of Agriculture forecasts. That’s $33 billion of a projected $88 billion in income.
The trade war and two straight years of adverse weather rattled farmers already facing commodity price slumps.
Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings in the 12 months ended September rose to 580 from a year earlier. That marked the highest since 676 cases in 2011 under the chapter of the bankruptcy code tailored for farms. The total “remains well below” historical highs in the 1980s, the federation said
Everyone is awful these days, it’s enough to drive anyone crazy
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Dam4m4VvASc
This will be studied in film class for some time, no doubt!
Remarkable!
Thank goodness for little children!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=o9PeXUsdFys
For what it is worth, there does seem to be a way for intermittent PV to be useful for making hydrogen to feed to F/T plants. It doesn’t meet Gail’s target of $10/bbl oil, but it *might* make $50 initially and that might go down to $40 or perhaps lower.
The economic advantage is that a lot of infrastructures such as aircraft can be saved.with carbon-neutral synfuel.
I kind of doubt I am the only one who has seen the implications of really low-cost PV for making synfuel. Anyone up to taking on $1.3 T per year in debt for the next ten years?
Governments seem to be willing to issue more and more debt, then buy it back through their central banks so it doesn’t affect the interest rates they pay.
“to issue more and more debt,”
Accounting is mind-twisting to engineers. I think you have seen the big spreadsheet I did for power satellites. It was set up to assume paying 6% interest on borrowed money and to get 3% interest if the power satellite company had money in the bank.
One Sasol sized module would crank out 12.4 million bbl a year which at $50/bbl would be a cash-in of around $620 million a year (less maintenance and workforce). The cost of the plant is around a billion. The PV part might cost 4-5 times the plant. The investment could pay off as much as ten percent per year.
It would take a mountain of work for a serious proposal. But it does have the advantage that the pieces that make it up are well understood and exist in large sizes.
I thought you might like this AllAfrica article, Keith. Nigeria’s Cost of Oil Production Is Unsustainable – Minister
“production cost of over $30”
This proposal is more about how to move solar energy to places it doesn’t work from places where it does. That and providing carbon-neutral oil to a world where we decide not to pull more oil and coal out of the ground.
It answers the biggest problem, intermittency, for renewable energy. A modest amount of hydrogen storage will keep the F/T plants running full time, and if they have to be shut down for prolonged cloud cover, at least you don’t have customers complaining.
I prefer power satellites as a solution but as you say they are a long way off.
I might have mentioned this. The US military has put out a paper on power satellites for forward bases and similar uses.
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=forums&srcid=MDQ0MTM3Mzc3MzE3MzQ5MTE3ODUBMDIwMDMyMjM1NjAwMjMxMzg3NzkBS3c1Z2l0Ni1BZ0FKATAuMQEBdjI&authuser=0
Power satellites don’t easily scale down to sizes appropriate for this use. On the other hand, do you need forward bases if you build a multi GW laser?
Some background on why Nigeria’s oil industry is in trouble:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjXl-jdk8nlAhUF2qQKHYG8A3UQFjAAegQIAhAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Fbusiness-46336733&usg=AOvVaw2ushOn0Pw3_Gvo_Gxbor7r
Somehow, self-organization seems to work this way. If monetary payments to leaders gets things done, then there is a lot of graft. China has had huge problems with this.
The many poor people of Africa do not directly have jobs in oil. The government is not collecting a lot taxes because the price of oil is so low. It is not surprising that the system doesn’t work well.
The people of Eastern Nigeria lost more than oil revenue: many of them lost their homes or even their lives. The Igbo were especially victimised, because they lived on the land the central government wanted to expropriate for oil industry infrastructure. I should know: we were living in Nigeria at the time.
And yes, most of the oil revenue went to the politicians, to be squirrelled away offshore, or used at election time as “walking around money”. Or spent on absurd vanity projects, such as building a new capital city complex, in the new “Federal Capital Territory” of Abuja. After all, if Brazil can build a capital complex that was still 80% empty, so can we!
Looking back some sixty years later, I believe the oil was not a blessing, but a curse.
Thanks for your on-the-ground observations.
At the time that these projects started, it seems like what would have been needed to get the economies moving (literally) would have been paved roads, refined oil and gas for themselves, and electricity. These things would have been out of reach, given that all the politicians had were one time non-reoccurring gifts (through graft) at the beginning of the big oil projects. No one could guarantee reasonable prices for the oil. And with Nigeria’s high population, (201 million in 2019), it would be easy to use up a substantial share of the oil output locally, leaving nothing for the high tax revenue that exported oil could produce.
If the politicians built big complexes for themselves, it would be a way of temporarily stimulating the economy with their one-time windfalls. The new buildings would have used at least some local workers and some local materials. From the leaders’ point of view, these buildings would have had longer-term functionality as well. If oil and gas truly proved to be great-providers, they could purchase the things they really needed, including paved roads and electricity transmission lines.
Using the one-time funds for books and teachers would not have worked as well. These countries may not have had many trained teachers, beyond those already employed. Political leaders didn’t have the assurance of lasting funds. People who have been educated still need the physical tools provided by fossil fuels to “get ahead.”
Using funds to provide books is a way of trying to build greater complexity. Ultimately, building complexity doesn’t work well, unless there are resources to go with this. For example, we seem to be discovering that educating women doesn’t reduce population growth rates much in Africa. My guess is that education produces mothers who are able to raise more of their children to maturity, thereby helping to raise population. If the culture still demands that they marry rich older men and have lots of children, that is what will happen. New jobs are mostly in teaching, if energy consumption per capita is not rising.
For Gail. In the ’60s and ’70s there was a movement in Northern Nigeria to improve the education of girls, led by an enlightened member of the nobility. Traditionalists opposed this move, at first politically, then in the streets, and finally by violence.
The result was an organisation called Boko Haram. The first word is simply the English “book” (the first vowel is long); the second is the Arabic for “forbidden”. Their modus operandi is to kidnap girls and keep them as slaves, ensuring they remain ignorant. They now effectively control about one third of the territory. They are, as you might have guessed, followers of a certain religion., which declares all secular books forbidden.
In the words of the Caliph Omar: if they disagree with the Koran, they are haram and must be burned; if they agree with the Koran, they are superfluous and should be burned anyway.
The Hellenistic world fell because it could find no effective response to the “triumph of barbarism and religion” called Christianity, and the result was the burning of the Library of Alexandria. Our modern world has no response to its latest incarnations. And as Heinrich Heine said: those who begin by burning books will end by burning men. Si vis pacem, para bellum.
while we might agree that oil in hindsight—has been a curse on humankind
we might also see it as marrying the most beautiful woman imaginable, then discovering that she only wants you for your money and is draining your assets as fast as possible, and intends to bump you off when you are of no further use to her
it seemed a good idea at the time
HA HA HA🤑
Greenspan Sees No Recession as Post-Crisis Deleveraging Endures
Jeff Kearns and Alex Tanzi
BloombergOctober 31, 2019, 11:11 AM EDT
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/greenspan-sees-no-recession-post-151158277.html?bcmt=1
(Bloomberg) — Alan Greenspan says it’s too soon to start betting on a U.S. recession, according to one of his preferred gauges of American business spending.
While market-based signals and economist projections have shown rising odds that the expansion may stumble, the former Federal Reserve chief says history shows the economy isn’t sinking into a contraction.
That’s his conclusion based on a measure of how much companies are borrowing as they make decisions on investing in coming months. The ratio shows that on an aggregate basis, companies haven’t really resumed borrowing since the financial crisis.
“The economy has been weakening, but we’re still in a period of deleveraging,” Greenspan said in a recent interview. His office reaffirmed his outlook on Wednesday. “No recession in the last half century, at least, began from a period of deleveraging.”
Capital Investment
His conclusion is based on looking at capital investment on a six-month lag as a proxy for when companies decided to make the appropriations, then dividing that by cash flow. The approach shows that the amount of cash corporate boards choose to invest in long-term assets has been a “significant leading indicator” of capital spending, he says.
Specifically Greenspan pulls the underlying data from the Fed’s quarterly Financial Accounts of the U.S., a thick statistical publication also known as the Z.1 in the central bank’s nomenclature of reports.
The capital expenditure data are found in the section on nonfinancial corporate business, specifically capital expenditures minus changes in inventories divided by gross savings. That ratio hasn’t been greater than 1 since the end of 2007. The last recession started December of that year.
These Guys are too much…not aware…..sure Al…..can’t see it coming…
He needs to stop by OFW.
“The ratio shows that on an aggregate basis, companies haven’t really resumed borrowing since the financial crisis.”
“The economy has been weakening, but we’re still in a period of deleveraging,” Greenspan said in a recent interview. His office reaffirmed his outlook on Wednesday. “No recession in the last half century, at least, began from a period of deleveraging.”
so on an aggregate basis, companies haven’t seen any need to borrow and expand in the past 10 years!
with the severe recession coming in 2020 even with this so-called deleveraging, companies will be borrowing even less, since there will be even less need to expand…
Greenspan can call this deleveraging if he wants to…
it’s really the Great Turning as centuries of economic expansion now is changing to decades of contraction…
contraction, such as collapse, will be a much faster process than expansion…
Shows how a sophisticated, historically-based, economic analysis can be utter nonsense.
Abstract
Ecological disorganization stemming from conspicuous consumption practices is understudied in the social sciences. In this analysis, we study conspicuous consumption and its implications for environmental sociology, ecological footprint analysis, and green criminology. We examine the issue of conspicuous consumption through the study of items that increase the ecological footprint considerably, that is, through the consumption of “luxury commodities.” Specifically, we draw attention to assessing aspects of ecological footprints of super yachts, super homes, luxury vehicles, and private jets. Taken together, the construction and use of these items in the United States alone is likely to create a CO2 footprint that exceeds those from entire nations. These results are not necessarily surprising but suggest that excessive consumption practices of the wealthy may need to be reinterpreted as criminal when they disrupt the normal regeneration and reproduction of ecosystems by generating excessive ecological disorganization.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2329496519847491?journalCode=scua&
The practice in some countries, after revolutions, has been to take over estates of the wealthy and break them up among the peasants. I know that this hasn’t worked well when it came to be farms because these really needed suitable equipment and proper knowledge of how to operate it.
But it did sort of work for big apartments. In Russia, I saw apartments that previously had been part of the conspicuous consumption, after they had been broken up into smaller apartments. They shared a common kitchen, with a whole row of stoves and clothes washers. The kitchen area also had all of the small bathrooms for the individual units. I saw an apartment with its own refrigerator. It was really rather spartan living quarters, the way it had been divided up.
Conspicuous wealth always becomes a target. CO2 is as good as any excuse to complain about it.
During the decline of the Roman Empire, one practice of the barbarian invaders was to occupy the llatifundia (huge slave run farms) of the rich, and settle their own people on them. People, of course, who did understand human powered agriculture and animal husbandry.
In today’s world, technology provides simpler solutions. Luxury yachts, private jets, and super vehicles can be taken out with cheap drones. Super mansions can be rendered uninhabitable by the judicious use of sabotage against their essential links with the outside world, such as electricity, water, and sewage. I suspect the “revolution” will adopt that tactic, once people realise that demonstrating in the streets is utterly useless.
There will simply be a rise in kidnappings and house-invasions, carried out by highly professional gangs.
The rich will hide, or go into exile, as they had to do in Italy during the very dangerous ‘Years of Lead’.
Criminals will want to milk them, not kill them, except now and then just to make people scared and pay up. …..
That is a good point.
Wearing fancy designer clothes will fall out of favor, it would seem like.
I hadn’t though of attacks on essential links and attacks by drones. You are right.
True about the consumption, but also politically distorted: if they also talked about removing billions of ordinary, modest human beings from the planet as an insupportable burden on ecosystems, I would be more impressed. Just another anti-elite narrative: 19th-century thinking in fact. In a sense, we are ALL ‘eco-criminals’
California Is Becoming Unlivable
The state is plagued by two major issues: wildfires and a lack of affordable housing. Each problem exacerbates the other.
OCT 30, 2019 Annie Lowrey Staff writer at The Atlantic
Right now, wildfires are scorching tens of thousands of acres in California, choking the air with smoke, spurring widespread prophylactic blackouts, and forcing the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people. Right now, roughly 130,000 Californians are homeless, and millions more are shelling out far more in rent than they can afford, commuting into expensive cities from faraway suburbs and towns, or doubling up in houses and apartments.
Wildfires and lack of affordable housing—these are two of the most visible and urgent crises facing California, raising the question of whether the country’s dreamiest, most optimistic state is fast becoming unlivable. Climate change is turning it into a tinderbox; the soaring cost of living is forcing even wealthy families into financial precarity. And, in some ways, the two crises are one: The housing crunch in urban centers has pushed construction to cheaper, more peripheral areas, where wildfire risk is greater.
California’s housing crisis and its fire crisis often collide in what’s known as the wildland-urban interface, or WUI, where trailer parks and exurban culs-de-sac and cabins have sprung up amid the state’s scrublands and pine forests and grassy ridges. Roughly half of the housing units built in California between 1990 and 2010 are in the WUI, which has expanded by roughly 1,000 square miles. As a result, 2 million homes, or one in seven in the state, are at high or extreme risk for wildfire, according to one estimate from the Center for Insurance Policy and Research. That’s three times as many as in any other state
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/10/can-california-save-itself/601135/?utm_medium=offsite&utm_source=yahoo&utm_campaign=yahoo-non-hosted&yptr=yahoo
Next up the State of Florida…South Florida….what till a major Hurricane wipes it off the map…
Just a matter of time, we’ve been lucky here so far….but Lady Luck is tickled!
I keep wondering when property values will start falling in California, and people will begin moving out. I know that some have been moving out already, but I wonder when the tide will really turn. I wouldn’t be willing to life in such conditions.
California is interesting. Property values falling will not happen, IMO. All started in WWII with the war time industry and building the required infrastructure(Hydro and power lines). Maybe even before with Hollywood and the waitress or carpenter might be the next Star. People will put up with A LOT for a dream. Now in addition to that we have Silicon Valley and the whole tech thing (more dreams). Dreams die(slowly) and then, “well we are here now …”
The other day a ran across a 2000 CA state paper that was projecting state population of 45 million people in 2015(IIRC). They only fell short by 5 million and change. The unfortunate thing is it is basically the middle class that is leaving. CA has a huge number of immigrants from other countries each year. If you leave say Chile with 1/4 of the per capita or China or … Beats the heck out of the old country. So it has the widest disparity between the haves and the have-nots.
The rest of us just consider it the land of fruits, flakes and nuts.
Get HaPpY
Florida got smacked around HARD in 2004 and 2005. (Wiki ref) 4 hurricanes in 2004 and 2 more in 2005. Pick up the pieces, figure out what was wrong, what was right, rebuild. Just like after Hurricane Andrew.
The next hurricane to hit FL was in 2017(1) despite all the scare stories about the end of the world from the newscasters in 2004, 5, 6, 7… . Was FL lucky, of course. Hurricanes scare me much more than wildfires.
The US figured out how to deal with wildfires back in the 30’s or before. When yearly totals were ~6 times higher.
T2M
These wildfires seem to have a new reason. Quite a few of them seem to be grid connected. I doubt that fixing the grid was the 1930s solution.
My poor communication skills, scatter brain and too fast typing strike again.
Power lines are a known data set (a lengthy set but known.) There are drones that can inspect wind turbines and solar farms. How hard is it to fly one down a set course? Is that wire is hanging down to much? Are those trees getting to close? … I am not a forest ranger not sure what to look for.
Compare that to the fire data below when most of the fires were caused by lightning(more or less random events) slowly shifting to human causes(campfires, and the like.) We went from ~40,000,000 acres in the 20’s, 30’s and 40’s to less than 10,000,000 acres in the 50’s to now.
Data for the whole US since 1926:
https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html
In 1926(1st year) number of Fires 91,793 Acres burned 24,316,000
It actually got worse in the 30’s, my error. 🙁
2018(last year) # of fires 58,083 Acres burned 8,767,492
From 1953 until 2015 it never got to 7 digits for acres burned.
For a kicker apparently the number of fires has declined with time, sort of(if reporting is comparable, there is a huge dip). Not what I would have expected with modern sensing capabilities compared to the old fire tower watch.
T2M
Thanks for the US data. California seems to get in the news because its fires are often in built up areas.
Regarding the reason for the downward trend, I expect that at some point, at least for the US as a whole, we learned how to do controlled burns. We also did more planning otherwise–trees for lumber, for example.
I know that at one time, families burned their trash outside, causing fires. Also, modern fire fighting equipment may play a role, especially helicopters, in holding down the number of acres.
“Current difficulties facing the global economy are beyond the scope central banks, the former chair of the US Council of Economic Advisers has said.
““I think we’ve asked too much of the [Federal Reserve], of the European Central Bank and of the Bank of Japan,” Glenn Hubbard said to Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan during a recent panel discussion. “We have asked them to solve problems that they really can’t solve.””
https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/monetary-policy/4518291/global-economic-problems-beyond-scope-of-central-banks-hubbard
“One of Christine Lagarde’s most important tools for stimulating inflation might be falling out of favor even before she gets to wield it as European Central Bank president.
“Doubts over negative interest rates are beginning to surface among policy makers on the continent where they first appeared half a decade ago. A growing contingent of officials at the ECB in Frankfurt are starting to wonder if they cause more harm than good…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-31/sub-zero-skepticism-grows-in-threat-to-lagarde-s-toolkit-at-ecb
The problem is basically unfixable, unfortunately.
Agreed. For centuries, banks regarded themselves as the guardians of sound money. For many, it was a sacred trust. But when a banker views their mission as “stimulating inflation”, you know that your economy is on the high road to ruin. You will be ruined if they succeed, and ruined if they fail.
I suspect with an economy growing overall and a requirement for increased amounts of money, inflation was a way to cushion local shortfalls. Generally a growing company is easier to manage than a shrinking company, probably similar with economies.
It did work for a long time, the resource peaks appear to have caused the issues, bankers only know money, if your only tool is a hammer, everything is a nail, etc.
Currently there are large, mass disturbances around the globe which are perhaps secondary to an overall shrinking economy; those with excess currency may find it difficult to claim more than their share of actual goods at a such times.
During the last monetary crisis of the inflationary 80’s , in the Quad Cities some auto dealers were accepting actual silver coins valued at their silver content value for cars which lead to some interesting debates on the sales tax owed as the autos were paid for in legal tender.
It is a tough time to invest.
Dennis L.
“[China’s] economy is facing heightened risks from slowing global demand and the Sino-U.S. trade war, adding pressure on policymakers to roll out more stimulus to avoid a sharper slowdown and bigger job losses.
“The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.3 in October, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday, versus 49.8 in September. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-pmi-manufacturing-offic/chinas-factory-activity-shrinks-at-sharper-pace-services-weaken-as-risks-grow-idUSKBN1XA04I
“China’s listed manufacturers are increasingly putting their money into financial assets such as stocks and bonds rather than investing in their own businesses, as the potential returns from capital expenditure wane.
“The fall in investment by industrial groups is weighing on China’s economy at a time when it is facing a severe slowdown…”
https://www.ft.com/content/0aec3dd6-fa1e-11e9-98fd-4d6c20050229
“Police in China arrested a woman after she spread a rumour via WeChat that “the local rural commercial bank is going bust”, leading to hundreds of customers rushing to withdraw cash from the lender in Henan province in the latest case to hit small regional banks during the economic slowdown…
“The incident came at a time of growing signs of stress within China’s small regional banks after the authorities were forced to take over or recapitalise at least three large regional lenders in the last six months.”
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3035596/wechat-rumour-sparks-run-rural-chinese-bank-fresh-sign
With so many manufacturing problems occurring in China, a person would think that a lot of the debt-related problems will occur in China.
The tree of honest banking needs to refreshed with bank runs and failures from time to time.
Death is Nature’s way of improving the gene pool. Bankruptcy was classical economics way of keeping people honest. And they are coming back, “with terror and slaughter”, as Rudyard Kipling prophesied: http://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poems_copybook.htm
“The tree of honest banking ”
Not familiar with that species.
The whole world is a tied at the hip bogus banking boondoggle now. Contagion must be stopped. Small bankruptcy will be allowed and $ payed out via FDIC. Much easier for the big boys to shore up behind the scenes. There will never be another Lehman. Patch it together as long as possible! God bless the Fed!
“Patch it together as long as possible! God bless the Fed!”
Ever since the mortgage meltdown or whatever reason is associated with the initiation of the Great Recession in which there was financial fear of complete collapse, there is no longer any intention by the FED of allowing market forces to take their own course. It’s all tweaked and as much as necessary. Like putting a boxer in a harness and holding him up with a crane so he can’t go down, at least until something happens beyond the powers of the FED to rectify.
Reminds me of US companies using their returns to buy back shares of stock.
” The downturn in shale drilling has been so steep and brisk that oilfield companies are taking the unprecedented step of scrapping entire fleets of fracing gear…. Whereas in previous market slumps, fracers parked unused equipment to await a revival in demand, this time it’s different: Gear is being stripped down for parts or sold for scrap.”
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/10/30/idled-frac-fleets-sold-for-scrap-amid-shale-drilling-slump
“…slowing demand for oil and gas around the world amid trade tensions between the United States and China, the world’s two largest energy consumers, could take a toll, Shell said.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shell-results/shell-warns-slowing-global-economy-could-hit-25-billion-buyback-timetable-idUSKBN1XA0RU
“The global manufacturing sector is in recession, which does not bode well for the outlook for metals, speakers at a London Metals Exchange seminar said.”
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/global-manufacturing-recession-casts-shadow-over-metals-outlook-lme-seminar/
Trade tensions relate to trying to push the problems elsewhere.
What a waste of resource…..millions of $ of equipment being sold for scrap value
I love a firesale. Mother of all firesales coming
https://www.rbauction.com/
“…Lowering rates when the economy is as strong as the numbers make it out to be is practically unheard of. And, according to textbook economics, lowering interest rates during a boom is a sure recipe for disaster.
The trouble is, as someone who studies financial booms and busts, I know that not lowering rates may be even worse. That’s because the corporate sector is dangerously over-indebted, creating a financial bubble.
A hike in borrowing costs could kick-start a cascade of bankruptcies in a financial contagion that would derail the U.S. economy.
“On the surface, the U.S. economy appears to be humming along just fine… Look under the hood, however, and things look very troublesome.
“Numerous trade wars have cost U.S. companies, farmers and consumers dearly. The manufacturing industry – once America’s job engine and ostensibly the sector the trade war was supposed to support – is seeing its worst year since 2009.
“And looking abroad, the situation is even worse, with the global economy slowing and the International Monetary Fund warning there’s little ammunition left to fight a recession.
“While that’s bad, we haven’t gotten to the scary part yet…
“All American companies are currently sitting on a record US$15.5 trillion in debt, equivalent to about two-thirds of U.S. GDP. Unfortunately, this debt was not primarily used to finance expansion and growth but more commonly to jack up stock prices through dividends, stock buybacks and acquisitions.
“The problem will come when the party stops – when interest rates begin rising and companies, particular the ones that took more risks, can’t refinance or pay back their debts. This is what turns a credit boom into a financial crisis, as happened in 2008.”
https://theconversation.com/why-the-fed-has-no-choice-but-to-keep-cutting-interest-rates-if-it-wants-to-avoid-a-financial-crisis-126096
“”The Fed’s capital injections will only grow less effective as primary dealers prioritize their liquidity mandates over short-term lending markets, the analysts said. “With year-end coming up, this is all likely to get much worse, in our view, before it gets better.””
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/why-fed-repos-capital-injections-might-not-calm-liquidity-fears-2019-10-1028643549#year-end-pressures4
Interest rates can’t really rise, however. The return on investments is too low. The world economy is doing too poorly.
What is there to invest in, except companies that are loss-producing and take business away from other businesses? It makes investment difficult.
I’m happy to take any contributions from those seeking a good investment. Should deliver a good return in, say, 20 years or so. I’m incredibly paradigm changing and disruptive, not just innovative.
As a CEO the sole metric evaluating your performance is to get the stock price up. Why not borrow and buy your own stock to jack the price? If it goes to hell you walk away. If it doesnt you get a couple more million a year in compensation. No brainer.
Burn, Baby, Burn🤑
Back YahooFINANCE
SoftBank Wires $1.5 Billion to WeWork Before Cash Runs Out
Ellen Huet
BloombergOctober 30, 2019, 6:16 PM EDT
(Bloomberg) — WeWork said it received an early payment of $1.5 billion from SoftBank Group Corp., as the co-working company was weeks away from running out of money.
As a result, a slate of governance changes went into effect Wednesday, including the replacement of co-founder Adam Neumann as chairman and the assignment of five board seats to SoftBank, which will take a majority stake. WeWork also said it appointed a new independent director to the board, Jeff Sine, co-founder of financial firm Raine Group.
“This financing package enables the company to accelerate the path to profitability,” Marcelo Claure, WeWork’s new executive chairman, said in a statement.
The $1.5 billion investment was announced in January and was originally scheduled for April 2020. The deal was accelerated as part of a bailout package for WeWork from SoftBank to rescue the troubled co-working startup after a failed initial public offering.
WeWork’s need for funds was much more dire than initially anticipated based on its IPO prospectus, which became public in August. The filing said that as of June 30 the company had $2.5 billion in cash on hand. But with the startup set to run out of funds in November, that suggested a burn rate of roughly $6 billion a year.
WeWork!? WTF is that? A Cash eating COW?
Something is truly wrong at We Work!
The WeWork story: https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo.
The founder, Adam Neumann, claimed he got the idea working on a Kibbutz. His wife, Rebekah, is a devout follower of Kabbalah. Together they have spent over $100 million on themselves, all of it borrowed money that they are now paying a team of lawyers to try to avoid having to pay it back.
Verbum sapienti sufficit.
Shades of what full collapse would be like in the early days:
1) Looting of generators and fuel (although availability of fuel would not last very long in full on collapse).
2) Fuel stations running out of fuel from over use from fuel for generators and panicked people filling up all their vehicles, so they can siphon from them for the generators once the fuel stations are empty/closed.
3) Looting of vacated homes of people that were told evacuation was mandatory.
4) Endless barking of dogs. Either encouraged by fearful owners or just responding to new conditions.
5) Long lines of autos at the few fuel stations still open.
6) Some fuel stations taking cash only because computerized system not working on generator power. E.G., I paid cash this morning.
7) People on edge because their not sleeping well due to increased stress.
8) People asking strangers hard questions, expecting answers. Like some woman this morning asking me how to get her vehicle out of the middle of the station as she was surrounded by vehicles. When I said I didn’t know, she just glared at me, lol.
What this told me was during a full on collapse things would degrade into lawlessness very fast and the relaxed, cheery mood people usually have up here in the country would never return.
Our power went off Saturday and thankfully just came back on. Time to do some laundry.
At which point during collapse will cash stop being an acceptable form of payment? If people have only hunger and cold on their minds and with banks and governments gone, will currency still have value?
I expect currency will have value for quite a while. We will lose the Internet cloud version of currency, though.
This happens when supply chains fail and there is nothing to buy. First to go food and fuel. Very quickly people then buy things they dont need as having cash rendered powerless is a very uncomfortable. Everything else now gets bought up. Bare shelves. Then there is a certain amount of selling at 10x prices although the seller might find his head on a pike.
Guess what comes next…
Interesting! I expect property values in fire-affected areas will go down. This is likely also true in collapse-affected areas. No one will want to buy.
Thanks for the report! Dogs are quite intuitive.
When does a state grid problem pull down the whole thing?
I am afraid it will not take very long, if the outages are very long term.
Faint shades of what collapse may look like in the early stages via examples from the power outage here in No. CA.
1) Looting of generators and fuel (although availability of fuel would not last very long in full on collapse).
2) Fuel stations running out of fuel from over use from fuel for generators and panicked people filling up all their vehicles, so they can siphon from them for the generators once the fuel stations are empty/closed.
3) Looting of vacated homes of people that were told evacuation was mandatory.
4) Endless barking of dogs. Either encouraged by fearful owners or just responding to new conditions.
5) Long lines of autos at the few fuel stations still open.
6) Some fuel stations taking cash only because computerized system not working on generator power. E.G., I paid cash this morning.
7) People on edge because their not sleeping well due to increased stress.
8) People asking strangers hard questions, expecting answers. Like some woman this morning asking me how to get her vehicle out of the middle of the station as she was surrounded by vehicles. When I said I didn’t know, she just glared at me, lol.
What this told me was during a full on collapse things would degrade into lawlessness very fast and the relaxed, cheery mood people usually have up here in the country would never return.
Our power went off Saturday and thankfully just came back on. Time to do some laundry.
which fits in with my thinking on it all
I find morbid amusement in the notion that city dwellers are going to somehow become jolly farmworkers tripping off to their fields every morning for a day’s food producing labour
On UK TV this week was a documentary series : Americas by Simon Reeves. In it he interviews a So Cal farmer who advertised for US workers, I forget how many 00 replies, but 12 turned up for interview, 4 started work, none came back for a second day
So he carried on using Mexican illegals.
Anybody able to watch that prog should do so—scary and tough to watch.
People only put up with hard manual farm work because they were bred to it, and had no other options – just like mining.
the physical producers of our primary energy sources are pretty much the hardest working people, who are of course miners and farmers
everybody else relies on what they deliver to society, though miners have been replaced to a great extent by oil/gas workers
The miners tend to be located in China and other out of the way places that we don’t see.
Nor do we see them – the miners – die in horrendous industrial accidents.
“die in horrendous industrial accidents.”
A decade or so ago 6000 people a year were dying in China’s mines. I am sure it is far less now.
Yes, now theyre dying elsewhere.
miners and farmers—
Receive the most public welfare (except for California farmers).
Just saying!
Unfortunately, commodity prices are terribly unstable. Anyone who sells what they produce as a commodity needs some kind of support. Miners and farmers both qualify. From the 1930s to about 1970, the Texas Railroad Commission attempted to keep oil prices relatively stable and production at appropriate levels. After that, it really has been necessary to have some sort of support program. Many countries do. I think that the ethanol program is intended at least partially as a farm support program.
Gail,
“I think that the ethanol program is intended at least partially as a farm support program.”
While I agree with the above somewhat, support for farmers predates ethanol. It may predate the Texas Railroad Commission.
About half the purpose of the US Department of Agriculture is support for farmers. Or so it seems to me. I have not done much looking at numbers. I do not even have a clue where to look.
For a start what else do you call paying people NOT to plant, subsidized harvest insurance and probably a plethora of other programs.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/why-does-the-govt-pay-farmers
https://www.rma.usda.gov/fcic
T2M
I have worked on a farm as a teenager. Pitching haybales and such is seriously hard work. Especially when 100+ hour work weeks are added.
Those 4 US nonworkers probably went back to various forms of welfare. So they should count as twice the cost. Farmer had to pay the illegals then the government paid the unemployed. So we can have cheap food on the shelves. Really hard to fault any of them.
Here is a related oil patch story.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-oil-idUSKBN1WS0BI
T2M
The oil patch story says,
“Thousands of immigrants, mainly from neighboring Mexico, have thronged to the decade-long boom. They often fill the hardest and most dangerous jobs few Americans want, such as using heavy equipment to lift oil well tubing or lay pipeline.”
But with laws against hiring these people, the operators are hard-pressed to find enough workers.
Law of supply and demand.
I had the good fortune to camp near Williston, ND back in the summer of 2012. Man camps and high wages. Of course oil and gas was worth a LOT more then. Had people from Maine spend their off time in the national grassland campground in the next site.
Oil Patch story is an example of employers flouting the law to get cheap illegal labor than actually pay wages required to get legal people to work at these jobs. People that would be paying taxes, getting medical coverage … this makes things more expensive. Instead it all goes into the gray economy.
Notice the part where the paving company was spending $40K to get the 5 people that had problems their work permits. People didn’t get the boot, apparently they were good workers and the company is willing to help them and probably makes some money at the same time. Hopefully.
John Q. Public wants cheap energy. When cheap is all that is important, all the consequences of that choice are felt by all.
US Govt immigration propaganda sheet.
https://www.uscis.gov/news/news-releases/cuccinelli-announces-uscis-fy-2019-accomplishments-and-efforts-implement-president-trumps-goals
Select highlights:
-naturalized 833,000 new citizens in FY 2019 – an 11-year high in new oaths of citizenship.
-processed more than 2.1 million employment authorization applications
-verified more than 40 million new hires through E-Verify
-From the start of FY 2019 through August 2019, the backlogs for Green Cards and naturalizations were reduced by 25% and 20% respectively.
My apologies for the rant,
T2M
I find it hard to fault people who are wiling to work hard to support themselves and their families. So I have a modest proposal. The US should allow in any and all foreigners who undertake to do honest work, and for every such worker deport one welfare parasite. in exchange.
Are there any welfare repicients that are not parasites?
I have no problem with people willing to work. I don’t have a problem if they leave the family behind to be supported with money earned in the US. Neither does President Trump from what I have found. His businesses hire them. Ok, I do have some problems with H-1B’s and the like, but that is a quibble, that actually strikes close to the first part of your proposal.
The US has an estimated 13.2 million green card holders, 65,000 in our military(wiki sourced). The above site states in 2019 we issued and additional 2.1 million work permits(visas). We expanded our citizenry by and additional 833,000 foreign born people in FY2019. 13.2M + 2.1M + 833k is about ~5% of our total population! 2.5 times our total unemployed seeking employment! Estimates on illegals vary from 11 to 30+ million exact numbers are hard to find for some reason. 😉
I have a problem with circumventing the law. If the law is bad that is what we have a Congress for, to write laws and fix or remove “bad” ones. An a President to enforce those laws.
As far as parasites. That gets VERY mushy. What is the definition of parasite? Heck Steven Hawking could be considered a parasite by some measures. None that I could support. Person who was working on a rig and lost an arm or legs. He is now a parasite by most measures. He deserves support. Just some gross examples. IMO, NO exchange required.
T2M
Thank you very much for that, illuminating – glad to hear that you have power back!
When societies are not used to such stresses, people lack a form of customary good behaviour which helps to creates an atmosphere of trust and an orderly handling of matters. eg. the once famous ‘British queueing’ -pretty much long gone in London at least.
The sudden appearance of looting, the absence of the authorities, each looking out for themselves – all what one would have predicted, but sad of course to see it take place.
Interesting that cash was still vital in the short term: an essential part of resilience in society still.
Good luck with the next one!
I know some of the peak oilers were saying, “Keep cash around. You will likely need it, it the economy starts falling apart.” They also recommended keeping your own versions of bank records and health records, in case computer versions disappeared.
posted by Chris Jenkins on Wall St for Main Street. podcast 10-30-2019
”The green-pedigree of electric vehicles is laughable. They are basically pollution-transfer-vehicles. Instead of filling up at the corner gas station, they fill up remotely from the coal plant.”
I’m going to see if I can a picture of some of the trendy EV charging stations here in Asheville NC against the backdrop of the coal powered electrical plant plume.
And posted about DUKE ENERGY….Biggest RATE INCREASE Request….go figure
https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2019/10/30/whats-included-in-duke-energy-progress-request-for.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo
Duke Energy Progress asked regulators on Wednesday to increase its rates by 12.3%, raising about $464 million in new annual revenue for the Raleigh-based utility.
The largest single item in the rate hike is the $800 million that Duke Progress will seek to recover over time for the Asheville Combined Cycle Natural gas plant, says Stephen De May, N.C. president for Charlotte-based parent company Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK). But the company will also seek $650 million in storm repair and recovery costs and $530 million spent on closing the Duke Progress coal-ash ponds in the state. There is also about $91 million for money spent on grid upgrades that have been part of a what could prove to be a $13 billion plan for grid improvements over 10 years.
“There are a lot of capital (spending) additions included in this rate increase,” he says. “There are also nuclear plant upgrades (valued at $1.2 billion) and investments across a number of different plants.”
The proposed rate increase would be significantly higher than the 6.7% overall hike that sister utility Duke Energy Carolinas proposed in its filing last month.
The proposed hike for Duke Progress could be mitigated somewhat if, as expected, the N.C. General Assembly approves a bill to allow utilities to securitize the costs of repair and restoration from major storms. The $650 million in storm costs at Duke Progress will add about $85 million to the annual revenue requirement for the utility.
Keeping the power on ain’t going to get cheaper….and forget the slogan
Too cheap to meter!….
When I lived up in North Carolina, Duke was in deep trouble with the Coal Ash storage pools. One such levee broke and dump highly toxic sludge in a pristine river.
They have many of such pools and have to find a solution. Burning coal leaves behind a waste product that has heavy metals and poisons like arsenic.
I remember a big pile after the winter months from the coal furnace we had as a child growing up to keep warm in the winter months up North.
From my memory it all just went in the landfill, out of sight, out of mind!
Duke Energy raises rates and residential users cut back on other purchases, hurting the rest of the economy. Industrial users find ways of cutting electricity consumption to cut their costs, or they move to where electricity costs are cheaper. Fixed costs of the utility then need to be spread over a smaller base, raising costs to the remainder. Charges move to more of a “fixed dollar charge per month” + lower rate charge, hurting the small consumers most.
China’s interest in electric cars seems to be from a point of view of being able to use their own coal instead of someone else’s oil. Also, it keeps the pollution out of the cities. But the electricity is coal powered. And of course, China would like to use electric cars an export product as well.
Thanks for your ongoing work in clarifying the hidden details behind the deceptive advocacy for grid-scale green energy. I love the idea of building an off-grid cabin powered by wind, solar, and micro-hydro. But the power grid is too important to hand over to the type of water lilies that dream about supplying an unpredictably intermittent load with randomly intermittent source.
A reliable and affordable power grid is a life or death matter for all advanced societies. If you understand the grid and commercial/industrial loads you also understand why wind and solar cannot supply the kind of loads that keep an advanced society alive.
Exactly. With 7.7 billion people on the planet, we have to have reliable, affordable non-intermittent electricity. Industrial processes rarely work with on again-off again electricity.
And yet the trend is to make everything utterly dependent on 24/7 electricity, even when it need not be – madness.
Truly, the fish don’t know what they are swimming in…..
Dear Xabier, as I learned over 60 years ago: Always Have a Plan B. But I fear that in this modern world, we are considered obsolete. Old fogeys standing in the way of inevitable progress.
A a boomer I am going to get a OK boomer t shirt shut up and smile.
Is it too late to contract a million Orange OK boomer t shirts out of Bangladesh and sell them om Amazon? “a portion of every sale contributed to renewable energy” YEAAAA baby!
Its more efficient having no plan B and no margins, so those insisting on margins and plan Bs have been outcompeted.
Unfortunately, you are right. When this approach is used for electricity generation and distribution, we have a major problem.
My friend told me last week he moved his portfolio to bonds. “What bonds” i asked. “Who did you loan to”. He didnt know.
Fed Chair Powell suggested that rates are on hold, and further reinforced that by stating that rates won’t rise unless inflation takes off…
“I think we would need to see a really significant move up in inflation that’s persistent before we even consider raising rates to address inflation concerns.”
Equity algos loved that headline and spiked markets into the green…
Inter-generational warfare is the game the controllers wish us to play: amazing that people fall for it, even self-describing as belonging to this or that ‘generation’ without any nuance – plenty of ‘Boomers’ out there who did crappy jobs and have next to no savings.
You say baby boomers did a crappy job and have no savings…. which makes no sense…that is like having one foot in one world and one in another that does not exist!!
I am not a baby boomer but have very little confidence in the current system to invest in it as well! I am 45 and what would you tell me? Max out your 401 k and buy stocks into companies that may not exist in 5 to 10 years!!?? buy ford, ge, boeing? No one has room to be smug in a collapse because it will hit everyone the same, some will just go over the cliff a little sooner than others! People who “played the game” are the reason we are where we are now! Yes inter-generational warfare is coming to a doorstep near you and so is class warfare. One only has to look at history to see that is going to be an outcome. I hate rich people even though I am educated and know that is a foolish thing to blame them but….I am a blue collar worker and am hearing it whispered more and more….
Buy gold! Funny how it’s consistently returned over 8% YoY (in my currency) returns over the past 15 years…..
Which currency? Since when?
@ Xabier
have to reply that I’m beginning to think that those who control us are scratching their heads saying to themselves how much can these people tolerate really? I mean come on population replacement, gender etc etc etc? the end of the white race? Really? This is a frightening mess and for sure there is another agenda and motives behind all this !!!!
I agree, they are constantly pulling the rug from under our feet, leaving no sense at all of a stable, more or less sane, society.
The world of the rich , which I occasionally sample when visiting friends, is in contrast very stable and ordered, totally insulated. So they cannot understand what the mass of people experience even if they want to try to do so. Mostly, though, they don’t care a bit.
As my old mother likes to say, ‘The Blitz was easier and you felt safer’!
Young people are especially affected by today’s problems. They spend years working on degrees, say in computer science, but also in other fields. Then they find that their jobs are being shipped overseas, where programmers work for less. Or they don’t have degrees, and they find that jobs don’t pay well at all. Or they have degrees in fields where no workers are really needed, and they end up doing something else, often at fairly low pay.
Sigh. I spent six years (four at Oxford and two at Cambridge), working for my three degrees To find myself unemployable. By great good fortune, not of my contriving, I had perchance obtained a little experience in information technology, which secured a minor role in a small research project.
From then, private reading in the Bodleian Library, and the mentorship of a great soul (Christopher Strachey 1916 to 1975) later gained me a secure appointment. Verily, there’s a divinity that shapes our ends (Hamlet, Act V scene ii)
When I left graduate school (a year after I finished my MS in Mathematics at the Univ. of Ill., Chicago), I went to an employment agency and asked what I could do besides teaching (lecturing is fine; grading papers is a headache) and being an actuary (wasn’t interested in life insurance).
Someone there suggested that I go over to the Society of Actuaries office, also in Chicago, and talk to them. Maybe it wouldn’t be as bad as I thought. The Society of Actuaries is what I think of as the organization of life, health and pension actuaries. The Society of Actuaries suggested that I go over to the CNA Insurance company office, located in downtown Chicago close to public transportation, and talk to them. CNA at that time employed both life and non-life actuaries.
I went over to CNA on a Thursday, and walked into their employment office. They gave me a little actuarial aptitude test, which I did well on. There was an opening for a non-life insurance trainee. I was happy to find out that there were actuaries who worked on something other than life insurance. The employment office called the non-life actuarial area upstairs, and the people there found four people for me to interview with that afternoon. After I talked to the people they had rounded up to interview me, they conferred among themselves and offered me a job starting the next Monday.
It doesn’t seem to work this simply any more.
This is CUTE….and just the beginning
OK Boomer’ Marks the End of Friendly Generational Relations
Taylor Lorenz
The New York TimesOctober 30, 2019, 8:26 AM EDT
In a viral audio clip on TikTok, a white-haired man in a baseball cap and polo shirt declares, “The millennials and Generation Z have the Peter Pan syndrome, they don’t ever want to grow up.”
Thousands of teens have responded through remixed reaction videos and art projects with a simple phrase: “OK boomer.”
“OK boomer” has become Generation Z’s endlessly repeated retort to the problem of older people who just don’t get it, a rallying cry for millions of fed up kids. Teenagers use it to reply to cringey YouTube videos, Donald Trump tweets, and basically any person over 30 who says something condescending about young people — and the issues that matter to them.
Teenagers have scrawled the message in their notebooks and carved it into at least one pumpkin. For senior picture day at one Virginia high school, a group of nine students used duct tape to plaster “OK boomer” across their chests
…..“The older generations grew up with a certain mindset, and we have a different perspective,” O’Connor said. “A lot of them don’t believe in climate change or don’t believe people can get jobs with dyed hair, and a lot of them are stubborn in that view. Teenagers just respond, ‘OK, boomer.’ It’s like, we’ll prove you wrong, we’re still going to be successful because the world is changing
….
Essentials are more expensive than ever before, we pay 50% of our income to rent, no one has health insurance,” Citarella said. “Previous generations have left Generation Z with the short end of the stick. You see this on both the left, right, up down and sideways.” Citarella added: “The merch is proof of how much the sentiment resonates with people.”
Rising inequality, unaffordable college tuition, political polarization exacerbated by the internet, and the climate crisis all fuel anti-boomer sentiment
Well, the picked the right letter for their Generation. Z……the LAST letter of the alphabet and probably of humanity…how nice😁
https://news.yahoo.com/ok-boomer-marks-end-friendly-122126849.html
“Teenagers just respond, ‘OK, boomer.’ It’s like, we’ll prove you wrong, we’re still going to be successful because the world is changing”
said with such blind confidence…
if they knew about global resource depletion, especially FF, they might have a better understanding of the lower prosperity that is coming their way as they become adults in the 2020s…
but they are correct that the world is changing…
just not in the better upward direction that they are assuming…
“just not in the better upward direction ”
It not that it has to be that way. Power satellites, StratoSolar, nuclear reactors or cheap PV power in the deserts making synthetic fuel would make the future brighter. So would nanotechnology and AI.
Don’t know how many are following this story but it is a doozy 🤑
Let’s face it, Boeing is the price and joy of USA manufacturing prowess and sets the standard.
This is a diaster and blows away that reputation.
YahooFINANCE
Boeing CEO accused of telling ‘half-truths’ in 737 MAX hearing
By David Shepardson
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Boeing Co Chief Executive Dennis Muilenburg faced intense grilling by U.S. lawmakers at a hearing on Tuesday over what the company knew about its MCAS stall-prevention system linked to two deadly crashes, and about delays in turning over internal 2016 messages that described erratic behavior of the software in a simulator.
The hearing, the highest-profile congressional scrutiny of commercial aviation safety in years, heaps pressure on a newly rejiggered Boeing senior management team fighting to repair trust with airline customers and passengers shaken by an eight-month safety ban on its 737 MAX following the crashes, which killed 346 people.
“You have told me half-truths over and over again,” Senator Tammy Duckworth told Muilenburg, questioning why the manufacturer did not disclose more details about MCAS’s lack of safeguards. “You have not told us the whole truth and these families are suffering because of it.”
Duckworth said the pilots did not know enough about MCAS. “You set those pilots up for failure.”
Muilenburg acknowledged errors in failing to give pilots more information on MCAS before the crashes, as well as for taking months to disclose that it had made optional an alarm that alerts pilots to a mismatch of flight data on the 737 MAX.
“We’ve made mistakes and we got some things wrong. We’re improving and we’re learning,” he said.
Dude…made mistakes!? Learning!? Improving!? You are FIRED…you don’t get PAID to make mistakes and learn on the job at your level…..
Can’t wait for a reporter following this story to write a book on this one….it will be a good one.
Boeing blew it big time….this MAX 8 is a money pit…..
Boeing fixed a piece of the system. If is easy to (intentionally) overlook the other system changes the need to be made.
“Duckworth said the pilots did not know enough about MCAS.”
A half truth is a lie. The pilots knew NOTHING about MCAS because Boeing deliberately withheld that information. It was even omitted from the revised pilot manuals they issued. The reason: to back up their lie of commission: that only minimal retraining was necessary, with a lie of omission: failing to mention the system that would have alerted every competent pilot that the training was indeed necessary.
And then a tame Boeing sock puppet pipes up that the crashes were all the pilots’ fault, for not turning off a malfunctioning system they didn’t even know existed.
And your point about fixing only part of the system is spot on. There was an independent sensor registering the pitch of the plane; it is used to maintain the artificial horizon. The MCAS could have been programmed to cross check against that information. It was not; it blindly accepted the input from a sensor known to be unreliable. That is directly contrary to all the principles of safety critical
systems: always have an independent check, and a proven workaround.
A similar piece of gross malfeasance almost doomed an Airbus A330 in 2001. The feed from the right wing fuel tank developed a leak, and the computer responded by pumping fuel into that tank from the rear fuel tank in the tail, which of course also duly leaked out. Now that computer had a sensor that measured the amount of fuel in each tank. If you are pouring liquid into a tank, but the level is not rising, a five year old would immediately deduce that there was a leak. The computer made no such deduction, because it was not programmed to do so. Only the heroic action of the captain, Robert Piche, saved the aeroplane and its 306 passengers from dropping into the Atlantic Ocean.
This, Gail, is the fatal flaw in all flight automation: a computer has no “situational awareness”, and so cannot think out of the box in an unanticipated situation. And that is why I believe the 737 Max will never fly again.
And forget about the stock price. Three hundred and forty six people are dead because Boeing senior management put time and profit ahead of safety, knowingly and deliberately. Somebody should hang.
The problem is indirectly adding too much complexity to the system. We try to use less energy by substituting complexity, but we cannot see all of the places where more complexity is needed. Ultimately, it is complexity problems that bring the system down. As you say, the computer has no situational awareness. In (someone’s) theory, adding enough AI would solve this problem. Except we don’t really have this. It is just an illusion. It is another example of a missing system that no one thought about.
If Muilenburg had a shred of honour he would apologise in the only appropriate way:
https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fvignette.wikia.nocookie.net%2Fl5r%2Fimages%2F5%2F5d%2FSeppuku.jpg%2Frevision%2Flatest%3Fcb%3D20190816164146&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fl5r.fandom.com%2Fwiki%2FSeppuku&docid=nIcLfCQ_U9DhFM&tbnid=6Dnm4QGduRe3UM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwj8wrCyxsTlAhUuAWMBHUfRDoQQMwiAASgKMAo..i&w=1278&h=818&bih=790&biw=953&q=seppuku&ved=0ahUKEwj8wrCyxsTlAhUuAWMBHUfRDoQQMwiAASgKMAo&iact=mrc&uact=8
Only if the stock would go up. His responsibility is to the shareholders. Or the entire design team? Or maybe the shareholders themselves? All of the above?
Stuff happens. The real assurance is that this hurt stock price bad so they will not want to happen again.
The max 8 longer fuselage will probably help the problem. Time will tell.
Such a worthwhile post, Gail – thank you.
I often say that solar, wind, and the like simply do not produce the same good as coal, gas, nuclear, etc. To compare costs and complexity, you have to make the two tech realms produce the same good and in order to do that, you have to grow the former greatly and back it with storage. Having done that, if you try to contemplate 100% of electricity generation using solely that storage-backed tech and match it up to real-world demand, you wind up, in the case of Georgia alone on solar PV alone, enough panel farm to start competing with agriculture and either a solid cube of batteries nearly as tall as the Sears Tower in Chicago or a half-billion-ton kilometer-long flywheel made of granite.
Put another way, the amount of usable generation you can get from wind or solar PV hits a hard wall on its own – past a certain proportion, you can’t use any more given our current demand pattern. Every percentage point past that hard wall has to be bought in the form of storage, and the up-front and follow-on costs of that storage are going to be high. We need to put a lot of serious study into how we go forward with vastly less burnt hydrocarbons than our society has become inured to.
Glad you liked my post!
You say, “the amount of usable generation you can get from wind or solar PV hits a hard wall on its own – past a certain proportion, you can’t use any more given our current demand pattern.” That is a good way of putting it. It takes too much lightly used storage for the system to work.
What’s eye-opening about my flywheel modeling is that it’s not the diurnal power excursions that get you – it’s the annual ones. The former are relatively tiny; the problem is one of not having the wheel grind to a halt in March or overspeed in July! I presume fixed panels set at optimal angles (I base my ratio between PV farm land area and actual annual generation energy on a real PV plant in Spain where I assume the panels are also fixed at optimal angles). I haven’t yet tried to model panels on heliostats but that’s an awful lot of kit to be slewing around and you have to spread your panels farther apart besides.
” it’s the annual ones.”
What it looks like you can do (at least on a large scale) is to use all the PV output to make hydrogen. Store enough hydrogen to deal with diurnal use F/T, and store the synthetic fuel in old oil fields. It’s a case of shipping around hydrocarbons rather than electrical power
I’m not sure what the problem is that you’re proposing to solve – is it to produce hydrocarbons that you then burn, putting carbon into the atmosphere where we don’t want it? And I presume somewhere in this rather lossy process there’s a chute where you pour in dumptruckloads of graphite?
I probably should point out that in the aforementioned modeling, peak power transfer into the storage is almost 100GW. I’m not sure how many cubic meters a second of water electrolysis that’ll get you, but it’s going to be a lot, as will be the absolute hurricanes of hydrogen and oxygen coming out – gases which I assume you’ll want some way to store at near atmospheric pressure so you aren’t converting energy into mechanical work and heat to compress it? And when you’ve filled these visible-from-orbit hyperblimps with hydrogen, how do you propose to keep them on the ground?
Interesting questions!
One of the things that fascinates me about this line of work (energy systems research) is that the sheer enormity of the amount of energy we push around and consume is for the most part hidden behind the woodwork of our society. It tends to only becomes apparent just how enormous it is when you contemplate rearranging it in service of changing aims. I also have an appreciation of the fact that refined petroleum energy products are, as Nate Hagens put it, magic. But like any other kind of magic, if you have it and have gotten used to it, the prospect of having to do without it is rather terrifying.
“sheer enormity”
You hit the nail on the head.
Power satellites for example. We would need to build around 3000 5 GW power satellites to replace the current use of FF.
“the prospect of having to do without it is rather terrifying.”
Yes. Without it most of the race dies from starvation in a year or two.
Power satellite are still a long way off, I am afraid.
“Power satellite are still a long way off,”
That’s true. And if you use PV power that cost not much more than a cent per kWh to make hydrogen and turn the hydrogen into synfuel, it’s possible they are not the most economical solution to energy and carbon. Oh well.
“where we don’t want it?”
Burning synthetic fuel made out of carbon from the atmosphere has no effect on the CO2 level. It really using hydrogen and the carbon makes the hydrogen ease to handle.
“hurricanes of hydrogen and oxygen”
It’s inside current industrial flow rates. The fuel output from the Sasol plant is around 2.5 GW. The peak power input making hydrogen would be around 10 GW. At 50 MWh/ton it would be making about 200 tons per hour. Use high temperature, high-pressure cells and you don’t have to compress it. This needs a full design study, something that I could do, but unless it was checked, I would not trust it.
I was referring to the modeling work I was referring to 🙂 in which all of Georgia’s electricity supply comes from solar PV and demand is modern BAU. Max power transfer into the storage = 100GW. Lots of water electrolyzed. Lots of gas.
“100GW. Lots of water electrolyzed. Lots of gas.”
I think Georga would be poorly served by one of these systems. It’s really cheap to ship oil around. Make it in the Saraha and ship by tanker. Burn it as needed in combustion turbines. But your point is correct, there are some high energy flows. The output in synfuel is around 2.5 GW per plant if we make them the same size as the Sasol plant.
That’s driven by solar PV which put out as much as ten GW in hydrogen. The synfuel output from the whole 2900 of them is around 7.2 TW That makes sense given that oil is about half and the total human energy use is around 15 TW.
That’s almost as many as the power satellite proposal would build. But they were to take up the entire load, so about 3000 5 GW power satellites is what it would take.
It is becoming increasingly clear that what brings the world economy down is not “peak oil;” it is “peak automobile.” Peak automobile causes the debt bubble to collapse and the system to fail.
The Wall Street Journal has a post up today called, ‘Peak Car’ Is Holding Back the Global Economy
A chart with sales through September 2019:
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/auto-sales-through-sept-2019-wjs.png
An excerpt, describing the reasons for lower sales:
A world with all the cars it needs? Isn’t that Good News? I have had all the cars I need (zero) for 23 years, and the money I saved helped fund my retirement. So people not buying cars will have disposable income to spend on more worthwhile things: art, opera, holidays with the family, extra time with the children, or just de stressing on the front porch,
Of course, the car makers will be unhappy, but they haven’t made money selling cars for years, so maybe they can retool and make caretaker robots for old folks. And the people making money off car loans will be in real trouble, because the money they lent at exorbitant rates was itself borrowed.
So perhaps the debt pyramid will collapse from the bottom up, into its own footprint. Until finally Goldman Sachs closes its doors, and its multimillionaire senior managers are sued into poverty by irate creditors, and end up living in cardboard boxes alongside the town dump. Cry me a river.
I have long believed that the Collapse, when it comes, will have one most salutary effect: it will herald a dramatic replacement of false values by true values. As the Good Book says, it will be like a refiner’s fire. (Malachi iii:2)
Perhaps it is both the big businesses and the governments that collapse, in an economic collapse.
People may be left to fend for themselves, but there won’t be many jobs for programmers or other high-skilled jobs. Even the tourist trade will dry up, I expect.
” ‘Peak Car’ Is Holding Back the Global Economy”…
or is it the physics behind the global economy, the falling net (surplus) energy, that is causing the auto industry to make a smaller batch?
I think the headline has it backwards… it is the weakening global economy, with lower per capita wealth, that is reducing the affordability (demand) for cars…
peak car sales in the US in 2016 sounds right…
young adults now are in a weaker financial position than young adults were in previous decades…
car sales, electricity problems, negative interest rates…
behind all of it, the physics of less net (surplus) energy will become increasingly unmanageable…
Definitely it is the physics behind the global economy that is holding back growth. Heavy industry is most affected, and heavy industry is concentrated in China. So China is heavily affected. Peak car is concentrated in China. But China has also seen “Peak Paper and Plastic Recycling.” This occurred when China banned most of it, effective January 1, 2018. Probably peak “new concrete homes for Chinese people” as well. Peak smart cellphone is a factor as well.
It’s all so clear now: create a global economy on an illusory foundation, get a global failure.
Just as Tainter predicted.
But there is still a game of ice-floe-hopping to play out.
Who will be first to slip and drown, who last? Who will get seized and chomped by the killer whales? Lots of entertainment still to come.
We won’t quite all go together, although that would be nice and sociable, in a way……
It’s beat up on China day at Bloomberg’s…
FINANCE
US GDP growth decelerates to 1.9%
China’s Biggest Banks Prepare for Hard Times
BloombergOctober 30, 2019, 8:04 AM EDT
China’s Biggest Banks Prepare for Hard Times
(Bloomberg) — China’s largest banks eked out higher profits but signaled tougher times ahead, shedding bad loans and boosting provisions as the economy shows signs of deterioration.
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp. reported declines in their nonperforming loan ratios in the third quarter while strengthening buffers against souring debts.
The results come as the Chinese economy expanded at the slowest pace since the early 1990s and the trade war spills into new areas including finance. The outlook remains challenging as efforts to boost growth and help struggling small businesses threaten to squeeze margins and lead to a pileup of bad debt.
China cleaned up 1.4 trillion yuan ($198 billion) of nonperforming loans in the first nine months, nearly 177 billion yuan more than in the same period last year, Huang Hong, vice chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said last week.
Chinese banks reported 2.2 trillion yuan of nonperforming loans at the end of June, the highest in at least 15 years, according to the regulator. Xiao Yuanqi, its chief risk officer, said last week that the industry is particularly vulnerable to bad debts and that authorities are working to ensure banks report the true value of nonperforming advances.
When the SHTF we can put ALL the blame on CHINA…those corrupt commies wrecked our perfect capitalistic system…ungrateful for all what we tried to do for them!
It remains to be seen the extent to which China can bail out the failing debt.
Which failing debt? Oh that one 🙂
It’s always nice to start with a good Collapse Newflash…
China Steelmaker Default Sparks Debt Contagion Fear
Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) — A Chinese company’s bond default is causing market concern that trouble may spread to other firms in the province.
Shandong-based steelmaker Xiwang Group Co.’s failure to repay 1 billion yuan ($142 million) of bonds last week, saw investors dump neighboring firms’ notes on contagion fears as companies in this province are well known for providing guarantees for each other’s debt.
China Hongqiao Group Ltd.’s dollar bond due 2023 and Shandong Sanxing Group Co.’s 2021 dollar bond have both dropped to their lowest levels after Xiwang’s default, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The bulk of Hongqiao’s bond plunge happened on Wednesday. The company’s bonds didn’t recover much even after it said it won’t help Xiwang Group. The firms are all based in Zouping county.
“Xiwang’s default onshore has raised concerns that other privately owned enterprises in Shandong, particularly those from the same locality, may have been associated with the firm,” said Wu Qiong, executive director at BOC International Holdings Ltd. in Hong Kong.
Shandong’s privately-owned companies are frequent users of the cross guarantee, which has the potential to send one company’s liquidity issues cascading through the credit system, S&P Global Ratings said in a note last week. “Simply, chained borrowing relationships could send dominos toppling, with a series of companies sequentially unable to fulfil guarantee commitments,” it said.
A Hongqiao unit, Shandong Hongqiao New Material Co., provided 6.4 billion yuan of debt guarantees to other firms as of March, accounting for more than 11% of its net assets, according to company disclosures in July. Sanxing’s external debt guarantees were at 626 million yuan, accounting for over 7% of net assets as of September 2018, it said in disclosures in March.
Maybe my pension fund can give them a loan to tie them over until times get better…..?
There was recent news that China had closed a large amount of steel capacity, as part of a global agreement to lower capacity. No doubt, inadequate steel prices led to this problem. Even before this, falling automobile consumption probably led to less steel need, so fewer steel mills needed. And steel mills have fixed costs, including debt. They cannot cut back well, without defaulting. So all of this should not be surprising.
“According to a recent Reuters poll, factory activity in China is expected to have continued its decline for the sixth consecutive month in October, as the manufacturing sector still reels under the effects of the trade war.”
https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2019/10/29/chinas-manufacturing-sector-to-remain-in-contraction-in-october-reuters-poll/
“A Chinese company’s bond default is causing market concern that trouble may spread to other firms in the province.
“Shandong-based steelmaker Xiwang Group Co.’s failure to repay 1 billion yuan ($142 million) of bonds last week, saw investors dump neighboring firms’ notes on contagion fears as companies in this province are well known for providing guarantees for each other’s debt.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-30/china-steelmaker-default-sparks-debt-contagion-fear-in-province
“China’s central government has dispatched senior state bankers and financial regulators to at least 15 of the country’s 31 provincial level governments to work as vice-governors over the past two years, as Beijing looks to shore up debt-laden local economies.
“The postings, compiled by the South China Morning Post from government announcements, come amid signs of growing financial stress across the country…”
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3035521/china-sends-top-financial-officials-clean-debt-laden
Fewer automobiles leads to less steel needed. (Probably fewer new buildings too, but I am not sure about that.)
Less steel leads to cutbacks in production, higher fixed costs relative to what sold; less profit with which to pay back debt.
it has seemed to me for a long time now that the global economic system is predicated on keeping everything/everyone, as far as is possible, in a state of gravity-denial –ie on wheels or wings.
those who are not part of this priveleged strata of society seem to be becoming more and more sidelined
“It’s only a matter of time, if things are not resolved, that we’ll start to see bigger defaults in the [shadow banking] sector,” said Saswata Guha, Fitch’s head of financial institutions in India. “There’s a risk of contagion which may flow through [NBFCs] and also banks. It’s very hard to say how this will unravel.”
“Some say the problems in India’s financial companies, many of which lent heavily to real estate, echo the collapse of the housing bubble that contributed to the 2008 US financial crisis.”
https://www.ft.com/content/61fb4894-f634-11e9-9ef3-eca8fc8f2d65
“Economic slowdown and softening of global trade continue to hit [India]s] air cargo firms with the latest official data showing 5.3 per cent decline in freight traffic in August on a year-on-year basis.
“Many of the shippers are facing cancellation of orders and buyers are insisting for discounts. “New buyers are not coming…””
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/air-cargo-firms-hit-by-economic-global-trade-slowdown-aug-freight-down-5-119102901140_1.html
India is in the part of the world that a person would think would be growing, if anywhere (outside the US) is growing. Something is wrong with reduction in freight orders.
“Germany’s DIHK Chambers of Industry and Commerce on Wednesday said it expected exports to shrink next year for the first time since the global financial crisis over a decade ago as trade disputes and Brexit uncertainty hit Europe’s largest economy.
““For our economy, with its strong industrial core, this is a huge challenge,” DIHK President Eric Schweitzer said…”
https://www.euronews.com/2019/10/30/german-exports-to-shrink-next-year-first-fall-since-global-financial-crisis-dihk
“Deutsche Bank reported a net loss that missed market expectations on Wednesday as a major restructuring plan continues to weigh on the German lender.
“It reported a net loss of 832 million euros ($924 million) for the third quarter of 2019.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/deutsche-bank-q3-2019-earnings.html
“In Alternative Arrangements, a flower shop down the road [in the UK market town of Ramsbottom], 72-year-old Anne said Brexit was “making people depressed” and that a pre-Christmas election would drive people up the wall.
““In eight months’ time this will have taken as long as the first world war – that was on for four years and three months,” she said, clutching her shopping bags. “It’s quite frankly doing my head in.””
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/its-doing-my-head-in-uk-voters-sick-of-brexit-and-the-election
Bravo, Anne! ‘As long as WW1’, exactly… and just as much of a screw-up, too.
There is one consolation here : a perfect Autumn has produced a magnificent crop of berries on this Sacred Isle, so lots of excellent, dark and potent, sloe gin in 12 months! (Although a 24-month ‘Grand Reserve’ may also be laid down).
‘Its a great life, sir, if you don’t weaken!’ as the sergeant of the guard said to Churchill as the bombs, so kindly dropped by those lovely Germans, fell.
Thank goodness our national temperament and weather do not really lend themselves to mass violence on the streets, Xavier.
Still, one feels it is only a matter of time before the riots of 2011 repeat themselves, what with the frustrations of Brexit and political paralysis and the slow withering of our economy.
Nothing for it in the meantime but to idly sip a Sloe Negroni in a nice, hot bath.
‘I wish, I wish I were in London, drinking a cocktail, at the bar of the Ritz Hotel’ as Dirk Bogarde says at the end of ‘Ill-lit by Moonlight.’
But a Negroni in a peaty (?) bath sounds quite as good, and maybe even better,
Run for you by the delightful Lady McGibbs, while dutiful and revering sprogs scrub your back and massage your scalp – nice set up! 🙂
Only moderately dutiful and rarely revering, I fear, Xabier. 😀
Harry, if it is published in The Guardian, you can take it to the town dump.
I think the article makes a fair point, Robert, which is that most UK citizens have had their fill and more of Brexit psychosis in all its manifestations.
You can take it as read that I am not endorsing the political prejudices or general weltanschauung of any of the news-sources I post articles from.
Fortunately, the Deutsche Bank loss was somewhat less bad than expected.
And the stock went down? So the days when a too big to fail bank announced a crippling loss and the stock went up because the news guaranteed a bailout are gone? Where are the rules? I want a memo. Restructuring. Turning over a dung pile to let the beatles regroup. (nothing against the Beatles big fan).
Peak car is a huge problem for the Germans.
I’ll amend that:
‘For our economy, with its declining industrial core, this may well be a challenge impossible to meet. See you all in Switzerland…..’
“US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is open to loosening bank laws meant to create buffer reserves in case of financial crisis, Bloomberg reported Tuesday afternoon.
“The laws — created in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis — stifle bank liquidity, as the firms are obliged to hold a larger proportion of their free cash in emergency reserves.”
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/treasury-sec-mnuchin-open-to-relaxing-financial-crisis-bank-laws-2019-10-1028641183
“Less attention has focused on a separate analysis the IMF has undertaken on problems that have been building up out of sight thank to investors’ willingness to take on not just greater credit and market risk but also greater liquidity risk.
“The IMF finds that large pension funds have increased allocations to alternatives – some of them leveraged, many illiquid – from just over 5% of their assets on the eve of the GFC in 2007 to just over 20% today.”
https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1hssw10g9yjry/swollen-at-risk-debt-and-illiquid-private-equity-are-big-risks
Sounds like a good idea on Mnuchin’s part. Elizabeth Warren is against it. A reason not to vote for Elizabeth Warren.
I thought Warren was the ‘good girl’ in American politics–seemed to have all the right attitudes etc
now I am seriously confused
She’s being panned as economically far-left by the MSM, and when I poll my democrat-voting coworkers and acquaintances the most common descriptors I hear are “crazy” and “nuts”. Nonetheless, she seems to have significant voter support. I’m starting to see a few Warren bumper stickers popping up on cars.
from here in the uk
Warren seems to put over the truth that vast disparity of wealth is ultimately destructive for everybody
am interested in other points of view on her
Yep someone worth $18 million is worried about disparity of wealth. Not really a knock about accumulating wealth. I have no problem with that, mostly, as long as it is legally accumulated.
No worries, her wealth tax kicks in at $50 million. Guess that will catch Senator Sanders that dedicated socialist. Not that I think a wealth tax does much. Other than encourage capital flight.
Watching all the Democrats support versions of the GND … makes things challenging.
T2M
PS Real clear Politics has a link to an rolling stone opinion piece about our broken media.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/baghdadi-trump-washington-post-headline-fox-news-904945/
Hmm, I get the impression that most US politicians are well into the fraction of the 1%. If Warren is worth $18m, that doesn’t seem much compared with most politicians. However, that does compromise most politicians who claim to want to do something about inequality.
It doesnt matter. Vote for the BAU candidate or not. I know i will. Nothing based on nothing but thats how pensioners eat and heat their home. Best to stop the contagion as soon as you can. Whether any of the candidates understand that is unknown. I doubt any of them understand the illusion. If the illusion dissolves its not going to be created again IMO. So the question is which of them will be most likely to make decisions that continue BAU based on whatever flavor of coolaid they drink. They may say their against bailouts because that will get them elected. So its take your best guess who will make the best BAU decisions. Moderator: WE have a question from jimmy no one from prepper ohio. Jimmy; candidate x do you believe preserving BAU is important? Canidate x; ?????? 🙂
A less polarizing candidate would be nice. Not going to happen
She certainly is pro consumer.
She is quite a bit younger than Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. I would eliminate both of them based on age alone. Elizabeth Warren’s health seems to be above average for her age group, as well.
She seems to be liberal on social issues, which I have no problem with.
But she goes awfully far in her anti-bank, anti-fossil fuel stance. The whole system falls apart without banks and fossil fuels.
then as i see it—without fossil fuels, banks in the modern sense cannot exist
fossil fuels are going to disappear anyway, so ultimately Warren is correct surely
it has always seemed to me that she’s dealt in truth in the absolute sense, sees no sense in glossing over the truth. Folks arent going to like that, but that doesnt seem to faze her one bit
she certainly has my vote, or would have.
One powerful woman there.—would love to see her chew up the Don in debate.
One of Elizabeth Warren’s promises:
The Massachusetts Senator said in a September tweet that she would put a “total moratorium on all new fossil fuel leases for drilling offshore and on public lands,” and that she would ban fracking everywhere.
Those policies would help coal, because we can substitute coal for natural gas.
or there’s the other end of the spectrum where to don wants to burn everything in sight in the belief that it is an infinite resource that will bring him infinite personal wealth
Im not sure how that could be done with executive authority. Trump has limited himself to executive orders that fall within the constitution albeit stretching things a bit. Executive orders apply to foreign trade. Asking mexico to stop immigration at there end to cut a trade deal is stretching a bit. using foreign trade to effect a domestic policy but its still constitutional. I hear all sorts of claims from the democratic candidate hopefuls about executive orders.
Really from a constitutional standpoint all executive orders need to be abolished. Unfortunately everyone from party x seems to love them when their choice is in and hate them when party y is in.
When the lights go out they arent going to just go back on again.
What a fantastic policy. If she wins, I hope she puts it into practice.
“The Massachusetts Senator said in a September tweet that she would put a “total moratorium on all new fossil fuel leases for drilling offshore and on public lands,” and that she would ban fracking everywhere.
What a fantastic policy. If she wins, I hope she puts it into practice.”
And a ban on all oil imports too?
God save the queen.
A ban on oil imports? Whilst that would be good, the issue globally is that we already have more fossil fuel reserves that we dare burn. Allowing oil and gas companies to find more fossil fuels is simply madness.
The prices do not stay up high enough. The reserves are pretty much irrelevant. This is true for oil, coal, and natural gas. The problem is collapse accompanied by low prices, not the dreaded peak oil with high prices.
The economic part of the climate change models is just plain wrong. It makes people worry excessively about climate change. Our real problem is collapse in the near future, leading to pretty much all of the fossil fuel reserves staying in the ground.
The problem, Gail, is that all predictions of the future are likely wrong, at least in terms of timing. That includes your predictions, and mine. What we do know is that continuing to burn fossil fuels is a recipe for disaster and the longer we do it, the worse it will get. It just makes no sense to continue to hunt for reserves, in light of the climate crisis. If economic collapse happens quickly, that will help the climate crisis but if it doesn’t come quickly, the environmental situation will get worse.
Economic collapse seems to be at our door-step. China is exporting it.
Well, the whole system will fall apart anyway, so I’m not sure what’s bad about Warren’s policies, in that respect. Fossil fuels, of course, are the primary cause of CO2 forcing, so the sooner collapse comes the better (less damage for us and future generations of all species).
Yes, Munchkin thinks that things are pretty damn desperate – perfectly correct!
“The slow death of the American coal industry has forced Murray Energy, the largest private coal miner in the United States, to file for bankruptcy protection Tuesday.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/29/business/murray-energy-bankruptcy/index.html
Ahh, that’s too bad…we will miss you
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=c5wmUkpOCKE
There is always two sides to a story
I read an article yesterday, which I can’t find today, saying that the US natural gas industry plans to cut back its production because of continued low prices. I see stories about big cutbacks in rig counts and increased natural gas flaring, both of which would be consistent with cutbacks in natural gas production, but I can’t find the story itself.
According to the article, a major reason for the cutback in natural gas prices is because coal prices are so low. The natural gas industry realizes that the upper bound on its US prices is indirectly determined by coal prices, because if the natural gas price rises very much above that of coal, US electricity generation will switch back to coal. With low coal prices, the natural gas industry sees little hope of getting US natural gas prices high enough for profitability.
“…it’s clear that we are witnessing the biggest surge in global protest activity since the early 2010s, when a “movement of the squares” saw mass rallies in capital cities across the Arab world, followed by Occupy demonstrations in the global north.
“Historically speaking, the past decade has seen more protests than at any time since the 1960s. Despite their disparate grievances, some common threads do bind today’s rebellions together. Tracing them may help clarify the nature of our present political volatility.
“One direct impact of the crash has been a rapid diminishment of opportunity for millions of young people in rich countries – who now regard precarious work and rising inequality as the norm…
“All this has produced a generation charged with hopelessness and hope. Afflicted by what the anthropologist David Graeber calls “despair fatigue”, protesters are putting their bodies on the line because it feels as if they have no other choice – and because those who rule over them have rarely seemed more vulnerable.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/this-wave-of-global-protest-is-being-led-by-the-children-of-the-financial-crash-1.4065862
“Hong Kong martial arts guru Bruce Lee urged followers to “empty your mind, be formless, shapeless like water.”
“That philosophy has driven months of anti-government unrest in Hong Kong. And it applies to protest movements elsewhere that are operating with quick-changing tactics and without clear leadership.
“…from Iraq to Chile, it feels like protests are everywhere right now.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-rash-of-protests-around-the-globe-have-one-thing-in-common-1.1339684
I hope we do not see the rise of capable psychopaths to take control of these protesters in political movements, but that no doubt will come….
At present, the use of these novel tactics also means that the protests are somewhat formless and very divided, without any viable programmes.
Unfortunately, the energy crisis – which is rally only just about to really kick into gear – means that even the mass redistribution of ‘wealth’ and helicopter money, etc, will do little to alter the prospects of these people.
The triumph over Neo-liberalism, if it comes, will be a hollow victory.
Nothing can revive the feel of mass prosperity of pre-2008, still less the ease and plenty of the 1960’s which so many assume should be the norm, even when they are too young to have experienced it.
I hope we do not see the rise of capable psychopaths to take control of these protesters in political movements, but that no doubt will come
Xabier, afraid that has already happened….at least in popular cinema culture!
Hope everyone has seen the film with Joaquin Phoenix…if not and I encourage you to do so…
Spoiler alert!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4F25rTcrBuk
And anyhow only 1B or two enjoyed the mass prosperity.
Well, we can’t please EVERYONE, can we now?
DJ , it’s the same as the State Lottery ticket sales here in the United States.
Megamillions and Powerball windfall. Gives the working corporate serfs the illusion we ALL have an opportunity to make it and gives HOPE!
I must confess, I partake in this charade myself, it is fun and I only blame myself when I don’t win….batting a perfect 1.000.
I can dream of what if and it relieves unhAPpY thoughts.
P.S. remember long, long, while ago President Clinton “advising” the Chinese in a Boston Globe article not pursue the same & development” as the United States because there was not enough to go around.
Needles to say, it fell on deaf ears…..wonder way?
“I hope we do not see the rise of capable psychopaths”
Psychological mechanisms from the stone age get turned on by the perception of bleak times. They make populist or even downright irrational people attractive as leaders.
I know it’s a bummer, but that’s what evolutionary selection gave us. See the works of Azar Gat or Steven A. LeBlanc. From the Wikipedia page of the later:
The primary cause of war, as LeBlanc sees it, is ecological imbalance; humans compete for finite amounts of food when population outstrips supply or when the land becomes overgrazed and deforested. Conflict flash points-the Middle East and the Balkans, for instance-have a “long history of ecological stress and degradation.”
LeBlanc argues that ecological balance was rarely the norm, even in pockets of paradise. One might expect, for example, that the inhabitants of Tikopia, a remote island in the South Pacific, would make fine stewards of their natural environs. But even they repeated the historical theme: “A few people occupy the…land, they exterminate many species, they heavily modify the landscape, and their numbers grow. They never remain in anything approaching ecological balance.”
And the impulse to conduct warfare goes all the way back to our primate precursors. “Our closest ape relatives,” he says, have always engaged in ferocious acts of warfare, chillingly reminiscent of human conflict (as Jane Goodall observed among chimpanzees in the jungles of Tanzania in the 1960s).
As humans evolved, violence was the norm; the “fantasy,” as LeBlanc characterizes it, of the noble savage, is a distinctly modern invention (first advanced by Jean-Jacques Rousseau and his followers in the 18th century). Skeletal remains of humans from sites all over the world reflect horrific violence. At burial locations of the ancient Aborigines of Australia-hunter-gatherers with no permanent settlements-we find “evidence of violent deaths and even massacres, and specialized weapons useful only for warfare.”
The replacement of foraging by farming, a development that occurred sometime around 10,000 B.C. in what is now, ironically enough, Iraq, placed a great many stresses on the environment. As populations began to rise, natural resources were increasingly exploited. Thus warfare, in the age of emergent agriculture, “became more common and deadly than forager warfare.”
Though LeBlanc’s arguments are inevitably grounded in pessimism, he does not believe that humans are genetically precluded from peaceful coexistence. “As long as resource scarcities continue in many parts of the world,” he writes, “I expect conflict based on competition over resources to continue, even if it is sometimes disguised as ideological. This does not doom us to a future of war any more than our past dooms us to a future of heart attacks.” But “if we do not strive to understand what we have done in the past and why,” he says, “it will only make it harder to get it right in the future.”
That is a good summary. We have had ecological imbalance for a long time. Also, people fighting over scarce resources.
Politicians give reasons that sound good, but the real issue is resource shortages.
Keith, another great article; my thanks. And a (very) minor piece of information: the phrase “noble savage” was not coined by Rousseau, but by John Dryden, in 1672. The text:
I am as free as Nature first made man
Ere the base laws of servitude began
When wild in woods the noble savage ran.
Well, there is the rarely discussed outlier/low probability* scenario of IC hubs regimes toppled BEFORE the legacy BAU derailment on its own (GFC_ver_xy). Not sure it will make much more difference (such sequencing order), because the ensuing global fin panic would push it into similar vector anyway.. Well, we never know.
*so far only fraction of the precariat classes demonstrate on the streets, which is not enough, the whole precariat plus even more classes would have to join some sort of broad coalition force to topple the standing regimes – very unlikely..
A person cannot blame these folks for becoming frustrated and rebelling.
If Namenda (Meantime Hydrochloride), as a synthetic NMDA receptor antagonist, works for ASD:
https://www.cara-winter.com/blog/this-shit-works
then what about the magnesium l-threonate, which is a natural NMDA receptor antagonist?
https://www.spectrumnews.org/news/modified-alzheimers-drug-may-treat-forms-autism/
Interesting, that the elderly and the childrens problems have similar or same solutions.
I don’t understand all of this, I am afraid. Aren’t we again back to magnesium issues, if you are talking about magnesium l-threonate?
There must be something which is common to these health issues of the elderly and the children. There were no such things before. But what it is, I do not know. Maybe not just the depletion of the soil, but some harmful substances in the environment?
The natural magnesium l-threonate works for one of my relatives instead of the synthetic memantine and its side effects of the man-made drug.
It is also interesting that when you take high dose vitamin D, you must take more magnesium…
https://www.livescience.com/61866-magnesium-vitamin-d.html
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vitamin-d-deficiency-united-states/
Life gets confusing. I stopped taking Vitamin D pills because I noticed that at least some of the food I eat is vitamin D fortified. If my real issue is lack of magnesium, it didn’t seem like the way to go. Also, the “calcium + Vitamin D will save you from osteoporosis” story is not really true.
Gail, perhaps I can help. There is a natural mineral water high in magnesium: Gerolsteiner Sprudel. Which I drank every morning, mixed with equal amounts of grapefruit juice (high in potassium). The source, by the way, has been working reliably ever since the Romans discovered it, so is probably a renewable resource.
Thanks! Renewable, but not low energy cost to transport, especially to the US.
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Aramco might actually try to sell their seawater soon. Crown prince wants two pennys but markets only think its worth one. pressure being exerted on saudi wealthy to buy to raise price.
https://www.reuters.com/article/saudi-aramco-ipo/saudi-aramco-targeting-to-kick-off-planned-ipo-on-nov-3-sources-idUSD5N27D00L
The WSJ is saying, “Aramco To Launch IPO Process Nov. 3, List Shares in December.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/aramco-to-launch-ipo-process-nov-3-list-shares-in-december-11572365038