We have learned historically that if we can isolate sick people, we can often keep a communicable disease from spreading. Unfortunately, the situation with the new coronavirus causing COVID-19 is different: We can’t reliability determine which people are spreading the disease. Furthermore, the disease seems to transmit in many different ways simultaneously.
Politicians and health organizations like to show that they are “doing something.” Because of the strange nature of COVID-19, however, doing something is mostly a time-shifting exercise: With quarantines and other containment efforts, there will be fewer cases now, but this will be mostly or entirely offset by more cases later. Whether time-shifting reduces deaths and eases hospital care depends upon whether medical advances are sufficiently great during the time gained to improve outcomes.
We tend to lose sight of the fact that an economy cannot simply be shut down for a period and then start up again at close to its former level of production. China seems to have seriously overdone its use of quarantines. It seems likely that its economy can never fully recover. The permanent loss of a significant part of China’s productive output seems likely to send the world economy into a tailspin, regardless of what other economies do.
Before undertaking containment efforts of any kind, decision-makers need to look carefully at several issues:
- Laying off workers, even for a short time, severely adversely affects the economy.
- The expected length of delay in cases made possible by quarantines is likely to be very short, sometimes lasting not much longer than the quarantines themselves.
- We seem to need a very rapid improvement in our ability to treat COVID-19 cases for containment efforts to make sense, if we cannot stamp out the disease completely.
Because of these issues, it is very easy to overdo quarantines and other containment efforts.
In the sections below, I explain some parts of this problem.
[1] The aim of coronavirus quarantines is mostly to slow down the spread of the virus, not to stop its spread.
As a practical matter, it is virtually impossible to stop the spread of the new coronavirus.
In order to completely stop its spread, we would need to separate each person from every other person, as well as from possible animal carriers, for something like a month. In this way, people who are carriers for the disease or actually have the disease would hopefully have time to get over their illnesses. Perhaps airborne viruses would dissipate and viruses on solid surfaces would have time to deteriorate.
This clearly could not work. People would need to be separated from their children and pets. All businesses, including food sales, would have to stop. Electricity would likely stop, especially in areas where storms bring down power lines. No fuel would be available for vehicles of any kind. If a home catches fire, the fire would need to burn until a lack of material to burn stops it. If a baby needs to be delivered, there would be no midwife or hospital services available. If a person happened to have an appendicitis, it would simply need to resolve itself at home, however that worked out.
Bigger groups could in theory be quarantined together, but then the length of time for the quarantine would need to be greatly lengthened, to account for the possibility that one person might catch the disease from someone else in the group. The bigger the group, the longer the chain might continue. A group might be a single family sharing a home; it could also be a group of people in an apartment building that shares a common ventilation system.
[2] An economy is in many ways like a human being or other animal. Its operation cannot be stopped for a month or more, without bringing the economy to an end.
I sometimes write about the economy being a self-organizing networked system that is powered by energy. In physics terms, the name for such a system is a dissipative structure. Human beings are dissipative structures, as are hurricanes and stars, such as the sun.
Human beings cannot stop eating and breathing for a month. They cannot have sleep apnea for an hour at a time, and function afterward.
Economies cannot stop functioning for a month and afterward resume operations at their previous level. Too many people will have lost their jobs; too many businesses will have failed in the meantime. If the closures continue for two or three months, the problem becomes very serious. We are probably kidding ourselves if we think that China can come back to the same level that it was at before the new coronavirus hit.
In a way, keeping an economy operating is as important as preventing deaths from COVID-19. Without food, water and wage-producing jobs (which allow people to buy necessary goods and services), the deaths from the loss of the economy would be far greater than the direct deaths from the coronavirus.
[3] A reasonable guess is that nearly all of us will face multiple exposures to the new coronavirus.
Many people are hoping that this wave of the coronavirus will be stopped by warmer weather, perhaps in May or June. We don’t know whether this will happen or not. If the coronavirus does stop, there is a good chance the same virus, or a close variation of it, will be back again this fall. It is likely to come back in waves later, for at least one more year. In fact, if no vaccine is found, it is possible that it could come back, in various variations, indefinitely. There are many things we simply don’t know with certainty at this time.
Epidemiologists talk about the spread of a virus being stopped at the community immunity level. Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch originally estimated that 40% to 70% of the world’s population would come down with COVID-19 within the first year. He has revised this and now states that it is plausible that 20% to 60% of the world’s population will catch the disease in that timeframe. He also indicates that if the virus cannot be contained, the only way to get it under control is for 50% of the world’s population to become immune to it.
The big issue with containing the coronavirus is that we cannot really tell who has it and who does not. The tests available for COVID-19 are expensive, so giving the test to everyone, frequently, makes no sense. The tests tend to give a many false negatives, so even when they are given, they don’t necessarily detect people with the disease. There are also many people who seem to spread the disease without symptoms. Without testing everyone, these people will never be found.
We hear limited statements such as “The United States surgeon general said Sunday that he thinks the coronavirus outbreak is being contained in certain areas of the country as cases of the virus rise across the United States.” Unfortunately, containment of the virus in a few parts of the world does not solve the general problem. There are lots and lots of uncontained cases around the world. These uncontained cases will continue to spread, regardless of the steps taken elsewhere.
Furthermore, even when we think the virus is contained, there are likely to be missed cases, especially among people who seem to be well, but who really are carriers. Getting rid of the virus is likely to be a major challenge.
[4] There is an advantage to delaying citizens from catching COVID-19. The delay allows doctors to learn which existing medications can be used to help treat the symptoms of the disease.
There seem to be multiple drugs and multiple therapies that work to some limited extent.
For example, plasma containing antibodies from a person who has already had the illness can be injected into a person with the disease, helping to fight the disease. It is not clear, however, whether such a treatment will protect against future attacks of the virus since the patient is being cured without his own immune system producing adequate antibodies.
Some HIV drugs are being examined to see whether they work well enough for it to make sense to ramp up production of them. The antiviral drug remdesivir by Gilead Sciences also seems to have promise. For these drugs to be useful in fighting COVID-19, production would need to be ramped up greatly.
In theory, there is also a possibility that a vaccine can be brought to market that will get rid of the virus. Our past experience with vaccine-making has not been very good, however. Out of 200+ virus-caused diseases that affect humans, only about 20 have vaccines. These vaccines generally need to be updated frequently, because viruses tend to mutate over time.
With some viruses, such as Dengue Fever, people don’t ever build up adequate immunity to the many disease variations that exist. Instead a person who catches Dengue Fever a second time is likely to be sicker than the first time. Finding a vaccine for such diseases seems to be almost impossible.
Even if we can actually succeed in making a vaccine that works, the expectation seems to be that this will take at least 12 to 18 months. By this time, the world may have experienced multiple waves of COVID-19.
[5] There are multiple questions regarding how well European countries, Japan and the United States will really be able to treat coronavirus.
There are several issues involved:
(a) Even if medicines are identified, can they be ramped up adequately in the short time available?
(b) China’s exports have dropped significantly. Required medical goods that we normally import from China may not be available. The missing items could be as simple as rubbing alcohol, masks and other protective wear. The missing items could also be antibiotics, antidepressants, and blood pressure medications that are needed for both COVID-19 patients and other patients.
(c) Based on my calculations, the number of hospital beds and ICU beds needed will likely exceed those available (without kicking out other patients) by at least a factor of 10, if the size of the epidemic grows. There will also be a need for more medical staff. Medical staff may be fewer, rather than more, because many of them will be out sick with the virus. Because of these issues, the amount of hospital-based care that can actually be provided to COVID-19 patients is likely to be fairly limited.
(d) One reason for time-shifting of illnesses has been to try to better match illnesses with medical care available. The main benefit I can see is the fact that many health care workers will have contracted the illness in the first wave of the disease, so will be more available to give care in later waves of the disease. Apart from this difference, the system will be badly overwhelmed, regardless of when COVID-19 cases occur.
[6] A major issue, both with COVID-19 illnesses and with quarantines arising out of fear of illness, is wage loss.
If schools and day care centers are closed because of COVID-19 fears, many of the parents will have to take off time from work to care for the children. These parent will likely lose wages.
Wage loss will also be a problem if quarantines are required for people returning from an area that might be affected. For example, immigrant workers in China wanting to return to work in major cities after the New Year’s holiday have been quarantined for 14 days after they return.
Clearly, expenses (such as rent, food and auto payments) will continue, both for the mother of the child who is at home because a child’s school is closed and for the migrant worker who wants to return to a job in the city. Their lack of wages will mean that these people will make fewer discretionary purchases, such as visiting restaurants and making trips to visit relatives. In fact, migrant workers, when faced with a 14 day quarantine, may decide to stay in the countryside. If they don’t earn very much in the best of times, and they are required to go 14 days without pay after they return, there may not be much incentive to return to work.
If I am correct that the illness COVID-19 will strike in several waves, these same people participating in quarantines will have another “opportunity” for wage loss when they actually contract the disease, during one of these later rounds. Unless there is a real reduction in the number of people who ultimately get COVID-19 because of quarantines, a person would expect that the total wage loss would be greater with quarantines than without, because the wage loss occurs twice instead of once.
Furthermore, businesses will suffer financially when their workers are out. With fewer working employees, businesses will likely be able to produce fewer finished goods and services than in the past. At the same time, their fixed expenses (such as mortgage payments, insurance payments, and the cost of heating buildings) will continue. This mismatch is likely to lead to lower profits at two different times: (a) when workers are out because of quarantines and (b) when they are out because they are ill.
[7] We likely can expect a great deal more COVID-19 around the world, including in China and in Italy, in the next two years.
The number of reported COVID-19 cases to date is tiny, compared to the number that is expected based on estimates by epidemiologists. China reports about 81,000 COVID-19 cases to date, while its population is roughly 1.4 billion. If epidemiologists tell us to expect 20% to 60% of a country’s population to be affected by the end of the first year of the epidemic, this would correspond to a range of 280 million to 840 million cases. The difference between reported cases and expected cases is huge. Reported cases to date are less than 0.01% of the population.
We know that China’s reported number of cases is an optimistically low number, but we don’t know how low. Many, many more cases are expected in the year ahead if workers go back to work. In fact, there have been recent reports of a COVID-19 outbreak in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, near Hong Kong. Such an outbreak would adversely affect China’s manufactured exports.
Italy has a similar situation. It is currently reported to have somewhat more than 10,000 cases. Its total population is about 60 million. Thus, its number of cases amounts to about 0.02% of the population. If Epidemiologist Lipsitch is correct regarding the percentage of the population that is ultimately likely to be affected, the number of cases in Italy, too, can be expected to be much higher within the next year. Twenty percent of a population of 60 million would amount to 12 million cases; 60% of the population would amount to 36 million cases.
[8] When decisions about quarantines are made, the expected wage loss when workers lose their jobs needs to be considered as well.
Let’s calculate the amount of wage loss from actually having COVID-19. If workers generally work for 50 weeks a year and are out sick for an average of 2 weeks because of COVID-19, the average worker would lose 4% (=2/50) of his annual wages. If workers are out sick for an average of three weeks, this would increase the loss to 6% (3/50) of the worker’s annual wages.
Of course, not all workers will be affected by the new coronavirus. If we are expecting 20% to 60% of the workers to be out sick during the first year that the epidemic cycles through the economy, the expected overall wage loss for the population as a whole would amount to 0.8% (=20% times 4%) to 3.6% (=60% times 6%) of total wages.
Let’s now calculate the wage loss from a quarantine. A week of wage loss during a quarantine of the entire population, while nearly everyone is well, would lead to a wage loss equal to 2% of the population’s total wages. Two weeks of wage loss during quarantine would lead to wage loss equal to 4% of the population’s total wages.
Is it possible to reduce overall wage loss and deaths by using quarantines? This approach works for diseases which can actually be stopped through isolating sick members, but I don’t think it works well at all for COVID-19. Mostly, it provides a time-shifting feature. There are fewer illnesses earlier, but to a very significant extent, this is offset by more illnesses later. This time-shifting feature might be helpful if there really is a substantial improvement in prevention or treatment that is quickly available. For example, if a vaccine that really works can be found quickly, such a vaccine might help prevent some of the illnesses and deaths in 2021 and following years.
If there really isn’t an improvement in preventing the disease, then we get back to the situation where the virus needs to be stopped based on community immunity. According to Lipsitch, to stop the virus based on community immunity, at least 50% of the population would need to become immune. This implies that somewhat more than 50% of the population would need to catch the new coronavirus, because some people would catch the new virus and die, either of COVID-19 or of another disease.
Let’s suppose that 55% would need to catch COVID-19 to allow the population immunity to rise to 50%. The virus would likely need to keep cycling around until at least this percentage of the population has caught the disease. This is not much of a decrease from the upper limit of 60% during the first year. This suggests that moving illnesses to a later year may not help much at all with respect to the expected number of illnesses and deaths. Hospitals will be practically equally overwhelmed regardless, unless we can somehow change the typical seasonality of viruses and move some of the winter illnesses to summertime.
If there is no improvement in COVID-19 prevention/treatment during the time-shift of cases created by the quarantine, any quarantine wage loss can be thought of as being simply in addition to wage loss from having the virus itself. Thus, a country that opts for a two week quarantine of all workers (costing 4% of workers’ wages) may be more than doubling the direct wage loss from COVID-19 (equivalent to 0.8% to 3.6% of workers’ wages).
[9] China’s shutdown in response to COVID-19 doesn’t seem to make much rational sense.
It is hard to understand exactly how much China has shut down, but the shutdown has gone on for about six weeks. At this point, it is not clear that China can ever come back to the level it was at previously. Clearly, the combination of wage loss for individuals and profit loss for companies is very high. The long shutdown is likely to lead to widespread debt defaults. With less wages, there is likely to be less demand for goods such as cars and cell phones during 2020.
China was having difficulty before the new coronavirus was discovered to be a problem. Its energy production has slowed greatly, starting about 2012-2013, making it necessary for China to start shifting from a goods-producing nation to a country that is more of a services-producer (Figure 1).
Figure 1. China energy production by fuel, based on 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy data. “Other Ren” stands for “Renewables other than hydroelectric.” This category includes wind, solar, and other miscellaneous types, such as sawdust burned for electricity.
For example, China’s workers now put together iPhones using parts made in other countries, rather than making iPhones from start to finish. This part of the production chain requires relatively little fuel, so it is in some sense more like a service than the manufacturing of parts for the phone.
The rest of the world has been depending upon China to be a major supplier within its supply lines. Perhaps many of these supply lines will be broken indefinitely. Instead of China helping pull the world economy along faster, we may be faced with a situation in which China’s reduced output leads to worldwide economic contraction rather than economic growth.
Without medicines from China, our ability to fight COVID-19 may get worse over time, rather than better. In such a case, it would be better to get the illness now, rather than later.
[10] We need to be examining proposed solutions closely, in the light of the particulars of the new coronavirus, rather than simply assuming that fighting COVID-19 to the death is appropriate.
The instructions we hear today seem to suggest using disinfectants everywhere, to try to prevent COVID-19. This is yet another way to try to push off infections caused by the coronavirus into the future. We know, however, that there are good microbes as well as bad ones. The ecosystem requires a balance of microbes. Dumping disinfectants everywhere has its downside, as well as the possibility of an upside of killing the current round of coronaviruses. In fact, to the extent that the virus is airborne, the disinfectants may not really be very helpful in wiping out COVID-19.
It is very easy to believe that if some diseases can be subdued by quarantines, the same approach will work everywhere. This really isn’t true. We need to be examining the current situation closely, based on whatever information is available, before decisions are made regarding how to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak. Perhaps any quarantines used need to be small and targeted.
We also need to be looking for new approaches for fighting COVID-19. One approach that is not being used significantly to date is trying to strengthen people’s own immune systems. Such an approach might help people’s own immune system to fight off the disease, thereby lowering death rates. Nutrition experts recommend supplementing diets with Vitamins A, C, E, antioxidants and selenium. Other experts say zinc, Vitamin D and elderberry may be helpful. Staying away from cold temperatures also seems to be important. Drinking plenty of water after coming down with the disease may be beneficial as well. If we can help people’s own bodies fight the disease, the burden on the medical system will be lower.
“Across the entire industry, shops are closed, brands and retailers actually right now have an oversupply situation with whatever orders they have placed. They fear that they may not be able to sell it, so they are actually canceling orders or delaying shipments of orders,” said Stanley Szeto, executive chairman of Lever Style, a Hong Kong-based garment maker.
“I guess nobody is lacking a shirt to go out,” said Szeto, who is also an honorary chairman at the Textile Council of Hong Kong.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-sparks-collapse-in-garment-demand-risking-jobs-in-asia.html
I doubt Bangladesh and Cambodia will be offering MMT to their workers.
Good point! It is the low-wage workers around the world who need support on their wages, not just those in the United States.
Of course, Saudi Arabia and oil producing countries around the world are in especially poor shape. They shouldn’t be forgotten either.
For those who missed the earlier egg carton issue on supply chain, please read this link
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2020/03/26/liebigs-law-writ-large/
You will know why supply chain is critical and there is no such thing as “essential” because in times of need, everything is essential.
Supply chain is also exponential. In the case of the egg delivery, there is the carton and the trucks. The carton manufacturer has many machines at his production facility and many suppliers (glue,cardboard, labels). Each of these 3 has their own production facility somewhere in the world In turn, they have their own machines (need of spares) and suppliers. If one of them fail to deliver, then the whole supply chain will be in jeopardy.
All the elements in the supply-chain arise because they are necessary.
There is no redundancy, and they must all function at the full capacity for which they were designed, simultaneously: but this is something which very few seem to grasp outside particular industries.
Still less can they grasp that an apparently simple product emerges from a complex chain.
Consequently the repercussions of any interruption, let alone the total cessation for several months – which epidemiologists now tell us must be imposed if the virus is to be ‘beaten and squashed’ – are little understood, if at all.
What will be beaten and squashed? The global economy.
“What will be beaten and squashed? The global economy.”
Exactly!
“Households around the world now have $12 trillion more debt than they did during the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, the Institute of International Finance said in a report this month. Household debt-to-GDP ratios in countries including France, Switzerland, New Zealand and Nigeria have never been higher.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-consumer-default-wave-just-000000692.html
And the debt to GDP ratio will explode when the GDP falls by half.
Good point!
And the trillions of dollars in tax revenue that will vanish because people will have no jobs. James Kunstler brought that up in his latest blog but then he goes off the deep end begins fantasying how we are going back to the “Little House on The Prairie” days.
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/people-get-ready/
Perhaps if it is “Little sod hut on the prairie,” for a very few people. Or “Little T-Pee on the Prairie,” for a few. We don’t have the buffalo of long ago, however, cutting back opportunities.
“The G-20 leaders made major promises, but their words did not offer hope to a world dealing with a pandemic… the G-20 leaders discussed the urgent needs of African nations, developing countries and refugees without formulating a common, global vision.”
https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/columns/g-20-leaders-fail-to-provide-hope-for-coronavirus-response-financial-crisis
“There is now almost universal agreement among economists, think tanks and policy makers the global economy is heading into a recession due in the wake of the ongoing coronavirus health crisis.
“Nowhere is that more clear than in Africa.”
https://qz.com/africa/1828110/coronavirus-africa-faces-recession-debt-problems-commodity-hit/
Economists can see the handwriting on the wall!
now those so-called “experts” see recession…
only because a depression is already here…
what amazing foresight! (sarc squared…)
“”The forthcoming financial crisis will make the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 look like child’s play. No financial crisis since the Great Depression will be remotely comparable…
“Although many US industries will undoubtedly be “rescued,” it’s unlikely that common equity shareholders of publicly held corporations will be fully “bailed out” – and some will not be bailed out at all. There’s little political appetite in the US to provide bailouts for common equity shareholders of large corporations.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334820-next-leg-down-another-massive-decline-is-coming
“Investors are desperate for clarity on U.S. corporate profits as the coronavirus pandemic has forced them to lower expectations ahead of the first-quarter reporting period starting in mid-April.
“U.S. companies increasingly are withdrawing guidance while warning of the outbreak’s steep toll on operations.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bracing-worst-u-earnings-pandemic-110000819.html
“The Federal Reserve thus far has unleashed what’s frequently been called a bazooka in its efforts to calm markets. Its next step could be to go nuclear.
“Should conditions on Wall Street deteriorate significantly, the central bank could go where it’s never gone before, into the equity market…”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/what-it-would-take-for-the-fed-to-start-buying-stocks-during-coronavirus-crisis.html
Strange… I understood that the CBs were knee-deep in the equity markets via their PPTs.
FE, the Bank of Japan already intervenes openly in equity markets and it sounds like the Fed wants to move in this direction. The PPT’s are, I’m sure, as you say, already very active behind the scenes.
Perhaps!
Probably the time is high for very open and admitted CB-govs joint action role of taking over companies more directly, it only NOW paradoxically strengthens confidence in the system than doing it in old style shady, second, third tier hidden transaction swaps kind of way.. Crazy, but different times simply twist everything.
It makes sense as for the very last IC stage, when MMT/UBI/.. are revealed as standard procedures no questions asked.. If it buys some more time, why not..
Sort of like what I have been warning about!
I ought to be waking up in Ibiza this morning. Instead, I’ll dedicate this excellent EDM track to all those in lockdown or self isolation:
Yes, looks like a beautiful place, I enjoy this one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLWrfdIKhKY
All the best to all of you,
Dennis L.
Electronic Music is one of the pure joys this (very) short life has to offer…at least for me…staying in my condo 24/7, my neighbors can’t be too happy with the constant four-on-the-floor beats lollll…BTW, international DJs are all live-streaming on Facebook for hours on end from their home studios…they miss the globe-trotting scene like there’s no tomorrow (which, unbeknownst to them, there won’t be 😉
Here’s a beaut from a few years ago!
Debussy / Tomita – from the 1970s
Wow Malcopian, beautiful!!!! Thanks!!! Amazing fusion between EM and classical 🙂
https://youtu.be/KCec0v0Btbo
Great track Tango….what else is there to do in these last few weeks, months…listen to music and watch TV, I subscribed to all, Netflix, Disney+, Prime, Apple TV+, Crave….I have never so not given a s h i t about spending money….Bought the new fitbit Charge 3, even though my Charge 2 is in perfect condition….could not care less…might as well spend some money while I’m still around or while my money is still worth something, whichever comes first 🙂
thank you for helping to keep the economy running… 😉
I’m faithfully doing what one of your most enlightened presidents of the past 100 years (sarc!) told you all those years ago!
bush: go out and shop
Swap out ‘wear sunscreen’ for ‘learn to knife fight’
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!
+++++++++++++
New Covid-19 cases: 60,000
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUROzXlXkAAS3RP?format=png&name=small
“US crude oil prices fell below $20 a barrel shortly after trading reopened on Sunday, close to their lowest level in 18 years, as traders bet production would have to shut to cope with the collapse in demand from the coronavirus pandemic.
“The US benchmark, known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, hit a low of $19.92 a barrel, losing more than 6 per cent.”
https://www.ft.com/content/bc938195-82d3-43eb-b031-740028451382
People don’t understand that low commodity prices desperately need fixing.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-coronavirus-briefing-death-rate-social-distancing
“Trump says coronavirus ‘peak in death rate’ likely in 2 weeks.”
Reminds me of that scene in the movie Total Recall with Schwarzenegger dressed up as a woman getting stuck repeating “Two Weeks!” followed by her head splitting in two to reveal Schwarzenegger who says, “Get ready for a big surprise” then tosses the head which blows up. Cases and death tally in US likely to blow up as this thing progresses way past “Two Weeks.” In two weeks we can all have fun with our friends and loved one’s doing our impressions of that scene from Total Recall.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/what-will-everything-look-like-after-the-coronavirus-120021163.html
“We can’t go back to a world before coronavirus. Wouldn’t it be amazing if we ended up in an even better place?”
oh, yes, like wow… so so cool…
wouldn’t it be so amazing?
A totally transformed humanity, kinder, richer in spirit and wiser, localised and trans- Green: it’s just around the corner, clearly……
+++ yes once the evil oligarch 1% are displaced humanity will enter its golden age. We will laugh, music will be played, we will discuss philosophical thoughts of great value. Pretty elfin maids will serve us flagons of ale and we shall dance and cavort in the sun.
Heaven?
Alas, not all will get a ticket there, starting with me, a die-hard atheist, prolly heading wayyyy south of heaven 😉
No, the Olive Garden.
Cherry picking….Last call…. I get so tired of this hoax thing…why don’t you go into a hospital and expose yourself to it if you think it is made up! I am hearing about very fit people who are in their 40’s having a hard time with this…Look up Joe Rogan on this…he thought it was overblown until he had a friend that had it. Our finite World has run its course kinda like the oil drum……Gail does not have a strong financial background so she is weak on the manipulations and machinations of the FED and central banks. She interprets things as if they made sense in the financial world; they don’t because these banks play by different rules that they make up and then don’t tell you what they are doing. That is why you have the comments up above…and they are surprised?
Hmm, 60-80,000 people die of the flu each year in the US alone. Of course its not pleasant. Indeed, the body runs a fine line with its immune response having high temperatures trying to cook the virus out.
I am not saying ‘hoax’ to the virus, just BS to the hype. Joe Rogan is fine until he covers a topic you know something about and you realise how many holes there are in his method.
I would rather suffer the flu (been several years now since I have had it) than the consequences of this so called ‘cure’. Many more people will die due to this misguided attempt to thwart the natural course of things.
As i said above, I would expect a death rate of about 2000 per day in Italy just as a consequence of their population numbers and demographics. Now give me the detail on the condition of those dying. I do believe the average age of the Cvid victims to be 79.5 yrs, and the majority with pre-existing conditions. Why the smoke and mirrors?
http://davecoop.net/senecagraph.gif
http://davecoop.net/seneca.htm
Not very convincing — I’m not convinced of it — but, for whatever it’s worth …
this is the kind of model that the true believers at peakoildotcom have spouted for many years…
I should take a look over there to see if the consensus has changed…
http://davecoop.net/senecagraph.gif
Sorry — a mistake, in the graph above, in showing the position of the 2019 figure.
i think the curve is correct, only the downslope is not from running out of oil, it’s from lack of extraction.
The “running out of oil” story of Peak Oilers was never right.
The problem is always collapse, like prior economies hit.
Peak oilers depended too much on the incorrect theories of economists. The models of economists did not consider all of the variables involved. They assumed that our problem would be represented by running out and high prices. The real problem is too much wage disparity and low demand. Closing up most businesses for a while exacerbates the low demand problem.
Consumption is already forecast to drop 20 Million Barrels per day for April 2020. So look at that graph up there and draw a red line straight down from 82 to 62. That’s the reality of the situation and it appears like it’s going to get worse.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-29/the-coronavirus-means-it-s-a-truly-free-market-for-oil
Huge problem! I imagine there is an almost equally bad problem for coal and natural gas, or soon will be.
Looks like that analysis is correct, so far as natural gas is concerned. I can’t find very good information on coal at the moment. With natural gas they’re expecting continued downward pressure from Covid-19. Not the news we need!
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/121494-weekend-forecasts-warmer-bleak-developments-for-virus-keep-pressure-on-natural-gas
I think the real downslope will be steeper, however.
https://knoema.com/atlas/Italy/Death-rate
Here is my take on this;
Italy has population of 60 million, 22.5% over 65
If life expectancy is 80 you would expect Italy to eventually have about 750,000 deaths per year; or about 2,054 per day.
At present;
Deaths pre con-vid were 10 per 1000 per yr …. 600,000 per yr……1643 per day
Deaths with Con 19 are 10.6 per 1000 per yr ….636,000 per yr …..1742 per day
\https://knoema.com/atlas/Italy/Death-rate
So when they tell us there has been 700-900 deaths per day due to virus, are they counting the near dead who were finished by the flu, which happens to have a scary name?
Where are all the statistics in this circus?
Maybe your next post could examine this (actuarial?) aspect.
“Deaths pre con-vid were 10 per 1000 per yr …. 600,000 per yr……1643 per day
Deaths with Con 19 are 10.6 per 1000 per yr ….636,000 per yr …..1742 per day”
so you are showing a 36,000 yearly increase…
that 36,000 may be in March and April alone…
without lockdown, that 36,000 could be 360,000…
I see your point that the total deaths won’t be much higher in 2020… just a fraction of one percent…
and some of the dead from the virus would have died in the next 9 months anyway…
the stats are so incomplete and hard to analyse with great confidence, but if 15 million Italians are over 65, and the death rate in that age bracket might be 10%, then could you foresee that without lockdown the 2020 deaths of those 65+ year old persons might be 1.5 million?
I do indeed. But the deaths that will result from the sabotaged world economy will be far higher IMHO. And this virus is a permanent fixture; Its like that letter you choose not to open knowing full well its contents. Delay and denial are poor coping strategies I have found from personal experience ha!
We are privileging the present for the oldies and sacrificing the future for the young-uns is how I see it, notwithstanding the terminal course the economy was on anyway.
Cost benefit analysis is missing in action.
I spoke to a friend in NZ yesterday. A mutual friend had died in an accident. There was no funeral and the cremation happened the very next day, as the undertaker could not keep the body, no room, ‘because of the Corona epidemic’. There has only been one death in NZ. What is going on?
Perhaps partly deaths from non-coronavirus causes, as coronavirus pushes medical resources to itself, reducing aid for other types of problems..
Good post. Whats that smell? Smells like free fall velocity.
I know that some of the actuarial comments I have been reading (in the actuarial email group I belong to) have been commenting about the high expected death rates of older men. A 1990 mortality table (somewhat out of date) shows that 3.8% of 70 year old men are expected to die in a given year. The corresponding rate for 80 year old men is 8.7% of men are expected to die in a given year. I am sure that those with pre-existing conditions have even higher expected death rates.
In my opinion, part of what we are doing is taking health resources from those with other diseases and moving them over to COVID-19 cases. We likely increase the death rate on the other diseases, while we decrease them from what they would otherwise would be on COVID-19 cases. Many lower income people are less able to cover deductibles for all kinds of illnesses, because of their wage loss. This adds to the offset.
‘Nothing is out of the question’: What it would take for the Fed to buy stocks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/what-it-would-take-for-the-fed-to-start-buying-stocks-during-coronavirus-crisis.html
We’re saved!
More pixie dust!
Now the video released from the FDIC on Friday makes sense as the other shoe has dropped. Capital One got a stealth bailout based on the price of crude dumping. How many other banks are going to have this problem now?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-capitalone-cftc-ex/exclusive-capital-one-got-cftc-waiver-after-oil-price-plunge-increased-swap-exposure-sources-idUSKBN21D1BC
as nauseating as it is for these mega banks to be bailed out decade after decade, I am still in favor of them being rescued…
almost 100% of us have become dependent on the banking system…
it all hits the fan if even one major system crashes…
banking, food production, transport, utilities, FF…
Oh don’t get me wrong, of course I want them to be bailed out. Particularly this bank as I have a lot of money wrapped up in CD’s with them. It’s just showing the cracks in the system. I’m sure plenty of others are going to have the same thing happen in the coming days. Apparently we’re going to see the limits of the system or what the Fed can backstop. They’re probably going to start buying ETF’s here in the next week or so and that’ll be the kitchen sink. Interesting times nonetheless.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed that this can go on. Without the banks, we are in terrible shape.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/29/uk-furious-over-chinese-lies-calls-for-reckoning-of-relationship/
“Scientific advisors have informed Mr Johnson that it is likely that China is also lying about the number of coronavirus cases in the country, downplaying the figures “by a factor of 15 to 40 times”.”
“There has to be a reckoning when this is over,”…
“when this is over” there may not be a UK…
Announcing accurate figures are not China’s strongest suit. Downplaying the bad news ones by a factor of 15 to 40 times is simple commonsense and getting angry about that reeks of cultural imperialism and statistical n*z*ism.
Yes, lying is all good.
Let other countries try to obtain China’s “wonderful results.”
the cull has begun nature is now targetting the weakest link of our species will the human race survive the “bottleneck” i believe we will even if they print into infinity for more information for where we are headed have a good look at the “club of rome”
I’m thinking the virus is so busy right now spreading to new hosts, it’s only targeting the easy one’s to rub out, but once it’s infiltrated the majority of the species, it’s likely it will go after the next tier down and so on until like you wrote there will be a bottleneck.
Most viruses become less lethal over time, as they mutate.
This virus is so widespread and virulent you would think that there would be no one left here to comment, yet…
How embarrasing this is. Just headshakingly embarrassing.
It is little wonder that our rulers hold us in such contempt.
it doubles about every week…
do the math for the next ten weeks…
32,000 dead now…
64k next week…
125k
250k
500k
1 million
2 million
4 million
8 million
16 million
32 million
please come back in 10 weeks and let’s discuss the results…
“club of rome” probably doesn’t cover this:
The Collapse will mean maybe about 1% get through the bottleneck…
that would be the poorest people right now…
those who live without FF and electricity…
people who live far up in the mountains and deep in the jungles…
there will be no more Machines… no more Technology…
but there will be humans…
It’s not really a bottleneck if it’s mainly the old and already-sick who get the disease. The young survivors will continue to breed as usual. If you want a bottleneck, you have to go after the food supply.
yes, the virus just won’t do it…
The Collapse because we destroyed IC to save some old folks?
that could just do it…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-created-a-fail-safe-system-to-track-contagions-it-failed/ar-BB11SFVi
“It didn’t work.
After doctors in Wuhan began treating clusters of patients stricken with a mysterious pneumonia in December, the reporting was supposed to have been automatic. Instead, hospitals deferred to local health officials who, over a political aversion to sharing bad news, withheld information about cases from the national reporting system — keeping Beijing in the dark and delaying the response.”
“…over a political aversion to sharing bad news…”
In a way I can’t blame them because it’s human nature to blame the messenger, in part because it’s human nature to blame someone, anyone when something goes wrong. I would think that’s especially true in China.
With the difficulty in identifying who was sick, I wonder whether they would have been able to contain the disease, regardless of what they did.
WTI fell below USd20 per barrel but rebounded back to close at 20.38 as of my comment.
true…
March 2020 may be the last month ever of $20 WTI oil…
How long will it be before some of the 2000 entitled Saudi princes feel that their rightful pensions are at risk and there is a and uprising? if it devolves into Civil war then we should get a short term rise in the oil price. When the Saudis erupt into chaos then will the other Gulf states follow? if so then there will be real road blocks to any possible recovery.
civil war and their oil production drops to zero?
initially, the oil markets may make a knee jerk reaction and send prices up a bit…
something like from the low teens to the upper teens…
then a day later, the oil markets will realize that nobody needs a drop of their oil, and prices will drop back to the lower teens…
soon enough oil will be single digit $…
An uprising in the Middle East is a definite possibility.
And now for the good news:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/food-workers-getting-sick-is-the-latest-threat-to-world-supply
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/dont-look-now-people-responsible-worlds-food-supply-are-starting-get-sick
The horror show is nearly over my friends:
https://www.peta.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Stun-gun-slaughterhouse-602×337.png
https://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/p/l/1/k/h/image.related.articleLeadwide.620×349.gpln1f.png/1466554671646.jpg
there is one most essential economic system, and of course it is food production…
(backed by other essentials – FF, transport, utilities…)
US armed forces and reserves… national guard… all hands on deck…
put these younger men/women to work (of course even some of them are getting sick) to fill in while the food workers are out sick… some will be out “permanently”…
if US leadership doesn’t keep the food production going, then they must have CDS – Coronavirus Derangement Syndrome…
I would expect a response of this sort, but a bit late, after shortages start to get serious…
better late than never…
beans are a good substitute for meat
I will reluctantly eat beans to stay alive…
insects?
all things must pass…
Some aren’t bad—
We munched a bit while fly fishing.
Sure, if you want everybody you’re quarantining with to want to kill you!
they also will be eating lots of beans…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/the-great-american-migration-of-2020-on-the-move-to-escape-the-coronavirus/ar-BB11QAma
‘The Great American Migration of 2020: On the move to escape the coronavirus’
“Even as most people stay close to home in this deeply disruptive time, millions have been on the move, a mass migration that looks urgent and temporary but might contain the seeds of a wholesale shift in where and how Americans live. College students and young adults are on the interstates, heading home to repopulate their parents’ empty nests. Middle aged people have been heading to their parents’ retirement communities.”
This article mentions that people who have a second home are moving to the second home. Clearly a lot of college students have been kicked out of their dorms and are moving home with parents. My observation here is that the ones with off-campus housing often stay where they are.
Money for crisis from gov Italia 25 bilion. Germania 550 billion. Usa 2200 bilion spagna 200 bilion. Who will default?? Italia
In these times of food shortages, we must look for alternatives. Insects are widely eaten in Africa and Asia. Many insects, such as locusts, are highly nutritious. Here you see a German woman secretly feeding insects to her British vegan son. I suppose you could say she’s being cruel to be kind.
I pick little bits of skin from my feet and feed them to my dog.
What?! It’s the best kind of gift–a little piece of yourself!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=X6E9zZ-TG9w
grazie…
at the end of that video race, China was “winning” at minus 11%…
Better Plunge Protection Team! Also, started earlier on this problem.
Maybe the Earth itself is a functioning living ‘aware’ environment.
if, as seems possible, our planet earth has a collective intellect, then it would be entirely reasonable to suppose that it also has an awareness that there is something wrong, that there is an infestation by a rogue species whose selfish grasping nature seems certain to destroy the living environment for all other species.
That being so, what better way to rid itself of that species, than to destroy its means of survival?
Logical, when that survival is entirely dependent on a combination of excess consumption and self delusion.
The excess consumption of ‘infinite growth’
And the self delusion that ‘homo sapiens’ is the dominant species that has invented gods to justify an existence of infinite plenty. Unfortunately nature doesn’t do ‘infinite plenty’. No matter how many gods are prayed to
Cut out the means of ‘infinite growth’, as a cancer is removed, and the growth dies out. And we die out with it.
Infinite growth is destroying the living environment of everything else, through resource depletion. Remove those two factors and that species will die out and the Earth will in time revert to its unpolluted state.
What better way to do this than to release an infection that instantly stops all polluting activity?
If some form of ‘intelligence’ was going to do this, it would be hard to imagine a better way. Not by bumping off billions, but just a few hundred thousand to frighten the rest into a state of panic that breaks the chain of their commercial polluting activities.
making sure that the chain was in so many pieces, it couldnt possibly be repaired
Humankind is suddenly cut off from everything that makes ‘infinite growth’ possible. Yet we are totally dependent on just that.
Nobody saw it coming, yet here were are. Cut off from each other, deluding ourselves that we can ‘work’ via computer screens. In a matter of weeks we have found ourselves foraging for food, rather than booking flights and buying cars and TV sets.
Maybe the Earth itself is a functioning living ‘aware’ environment.
Yep, just gaining equilibrium, getting rid of some nasty and vicious naked apes.
overshoot…
which always must lead to a decrease of the overpopulated species…
two main ways… depleted food sources… or disease…
in our case, the physical disease is effecting the minds of our species, and so we are unintentionally destroying our food supply lines…
are we smarter than yeast?
“are we smarter than yeast?”
Individually yes, collectively absolutely not!
The way that this was done managed to quell unrest by the many people with wages that are too low, or don’t have jobs at all. The fact that this was true led politicians everywhere to endorse closures on non-essential businesses. Of course, putting more people out of work would just make the situation worse in the long run. But who would worry about that?
Telling people to go back to work will simply highlight the many broken supply chains that don’t allow this to happen.
Hi Gail, in this short comment i was not able to follow your reasoning.
The wastrels busting themselves with various forms of frippery will get the middle finger and UBI-sorta’.
Sorry. From the point of view of leaders, the virus came at a fortuitous time. These leaders were trying to quell unrest by people whose wages were too low. This happened in many areas around the world. There were also widely diverging political views. Having people stay inside because of the virus tended to reduce the amount of political unrest.
But the shutdowns also tended to reduce the output of the economy, making the economic situation worse. Total demand, and thus commodity prices, tended to fall lower. Even fewer people, at even lower wages, could be profitably hired, once the shutdown ended.
Telling people to go back to work suddenly will suddenly unveil how bad the real situation is. There will be multiple problems at once. (a) There will be new layoffs because of the lower commodity prices, (b) there will be broken supply lines, because other countries are having problems as well, (c) there will be financial problems. Also, the problems that existed before will be back again, but they will now be worse, because more people are unemployed or working fewer hours.
It is likely that we have already passed the point of no return
Thanks!
Yes, but it is perhaps more mundane than retribution.
From the large macro zoomed out point of the Earth systems the humanoids simply full filled their historical role as large terra forming agents of change for given moment, hence allowing for (next geologic-enviro, .. ) epoch could start anew on a bit different setup of species balance, resources etc.
The age of the machine.
There may be some truth in that. Last week talking with a couple of millwrights they related a man working from a three car garage with two Haas VF-4 milling machines running said machines 24/7. Make these machines $65K base price and compare to a 1970’s era Bridgeport at say $7K/ machine(1970’s price, similar now with imports). A guess is it would take 100 Bridgeports and 100 sets of tooling which is as expensive as the machine to equal this one man in a garage. Each Bidgeport for 3 shifts would maybe require 4 operators allowing for vacations, etc.
One man replaces four hundred and associated real estate with improved accuracy and almost zero scrap rate. Add robots for loading the machines and each day this one man can get up, load the material racks, unload the finished part racks and ship parts. The parts will be individually identified with bar code, etc., pallets maybe with RFID chips. Shipping labels automatically created, off via truck to where ever. Soon the truck will have no driver.
Go to https://www.protolabs.com/ for an idea of what prototype production looks like, files are drawn with a CAD program, run through a CAM program, downloaded to proto, part is made and shipped. Almost all costs become variable, many parts completed in a day.
The man in the garage has wonderful machines, they are primitive compared to modern 5 axis machines – those are a bear to program and they move in five axis and collisions of the tooling with a part result in sudden deceleration with tools moving under 1000 pounds or more of force. Very expensive error. The problem is the learning curve is so steep, and errors so expensive it takes considerable mental ability to do this kind of work, more and more wage disparity.
Once sentient machines, Houston, we have a problem.
Dennis L.
Watching a properly programmed 5-axis machine or industrial robot is mesmerizing as it moves.
https://youtu.be/PlC2bHUBBns
Yep, you don’t want to crash a 5 axis machine, repair and recalibrate it back to specs. Care has to be taken when generating the tool paths in the CAD/CAM software suite. It is an art.
State of the art machinery monitors loads and vibrations to detect anomalies.
Humans are like glaciers/volcanoes…. we have performed our role… now it’s time to be sent on our way.
Whatever species arises to become makers of artifacts in a few tens of millions of years, will discover a curious layer of sediment enriched in heavy metals. They may surmise that an asteroid impact occurred, but will search in vain for the remnant crater.
If so, I’m grateful to Mother Earth, for the current tranquil pace of life and drop in noise pollution. It is so much nicer.
The next stage, the ‘broken chain’ will not be so pleasant.
The family of a Spaniard friend of mine is in lockdown in Madrid thinks the same. The city noises are gone and going out shopping is pleasant. The air is cleaner, birds singing. Not all is bad. For a little while.
Great points Norman.
Maybe Mother feels what many of us feel…. her bastard child, always an irritation… has in recent years gone completely off the reservation and has been spiralling out of control…
What was tolerable behaviour has now become too much…. deep sea oil and tanker spills… spewing toxic fracking fluids, ripping open Mother’s gut and steaming oil out of tar…. nuclear ponds everywhere…. the list goes on and on…
And Mother has decided enough is enough. And she is putting an end to us.
Grocery truck hijacked? Can I confirm if this is real?
https://www.fanpage.it/attualita/bari-commando-armato-assalta-tir-carico-di-generi-alimentari-e-sequestra-conducente/
This is at the end of the replies, but I shall repost in the next series.
It is by a Korean infectious disease physician, approx 38 minutes long and an excellent, concise summary of where we are and what to expect. It also gives estimates as to duration, age group infection rates, etc. I am not an expert, so whether or not it is the best is for each person to decide.
Some of the ideas are intrusive such as the aps, it does seem to work. Choices.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU
Dennis L.
Interesting.
My impression is that the doctor gives a lot of credit fo the KF94 masks that a lot of people are using. They are almost as good as the P95 masks that physicians wear. Almost everyone uses masks. They seem to help stop the spread of the virus.
Also, the high level of testing, so that sick people and their contracts can be isolated. The test is free, if a person tests positive. He says that in Korea, 20% of those with tests confirming they have COVID-19 have no symptoms. (I expect that the real percentage of those without symptoms in likely higher, because people with symptoms are more likely to come in to be tested.) Everyone who comes to Korea on a plane is tested as they come into the country.
The doctor gives the death rate as 2% or 3%.
In Korea, the percentage who die by age group is
80+ 11.6%
70s 6.3%
60s 1.5%
50% 0.4%
Social distancing is recommended, but doesn’t seem to be required. He estimates that 90% of academies for test preparation are open. Older people are concerned about social distancing, but younger people aren’t as worried and practice it much less.
uh oh…. as I have aid in the previous posts, it is a double trouble which I am not sure analysts are thinking properly. The demand dropped very significantly (not surprised if it is a 80% drop) and the supply went up dramatically. It is not linear and storage will be used up very fast. Previously, the analysts are still saying that probably in 3 months, storage will max out….. (maybe next week?)
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/unthinkable-happening-oil-storage-space-about-run-out
The Unthinkable Is Happening: Oil Storage Space Is About To Run Out
n the past three weeks, oil plunged and has continued to plunge even more in the aftermath of the oil price war declared between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and where US shale (and its junk bonds) has been caught in the crossfire. However, as we reported last week, we may get to the absurd point when the price of a barrel of oil not only hits $0 but goes negative.
The reason: according to Mizuho’s Paul Sankey, at a whopping 15MM b/d in oversupply, crude prices could go negative as Saudi and Russian barrels enter the market. According to Sankey, much of the US 4MM bpd in crude exports will be curtailed as prices fall and tanker rates soar. And with US storage roughly 50% full, and able to take another 135MM bbl more, assuming a build rate of 2MM b/d, the US can add 14MM bbl/week for 10 weeks until full.
As a result, there is a now race between filling storage and negative pricing “unless U.S. decline rates can outpace inventory builds, which we very much doubt.” Said otherwise, absent dramatic changes, in roughly 3 months, energy merchants will be paying you if you generously take a couple million barrels of crude off their hands.
It went from bad to an outright disaster earlier this week when Goldman, Vitol, and the IEA all raised their estimate for daily oil oversupply to an unthinkable 20 million barrels per day, as a result of the collapse in oil demand as the global economy grinds to a halt coupled with Saudi Arabia’s determination to put all of its higher-cost OPEC peers out of business.
** READ THE LAST PARAGRAPH – THE WORD “UNTHINKABLE?” – Don’t the analysts know? My brain hurts.
Cease all unconventional production, problem solved.
A big part of the cost of all production is the taxes governments require on the oil. All oil is now high cost, when needed taxes are included. It is hard to say which oil is highest cost.
I don’t think the taxes are too onerous. Takes a lot of infastructure to produce oil – roads, bridges, coast guard to rescue tankers, clean up costs (Exxon Valdez and BP Gulf spills), fighting wars (Iraq, Syria, Libya, etc).
In fact I’d say the taxes are dirt cheap almost like the producers wrote the tax codes themselves.
https://comptroller.texas.gov/taxes/crude-oil/
This is a map from a few years ago (2012?), showing the percentage of what is left after direct expenses that governments took at that time.(Called “government take”). The top rate was 90%. Basically, the rates are set based on what governments perceive that they can take, without damaging the company too badly. The chart is by Barry Rogers Oil and Gas Consulting.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/pe_worldmapunfold1-comp.jpg
Cash for burners imminent?
Lets provide cash for both new carz+gasoline to stimulate burning of excess energy reserves. It could be capped under $50-75k, so even many moderate SUVs and pickups could clear the threshold.
/sarc off as it won’t happen..
If the global economy is a superorganism, this oil glut is like a haemorrhage with blood pooling internally.
This excess storage trend made even the hard core oil deflation theoreticians among Surplus/OFW community very tame bunch indeed..
It’s stunningly incredible, one has to wonder if the oil producers and CBs would allow from now drop bellow quoted ~ $15 per barrel or not (as they already lift it up via ETFs etc), well in few months time we will get the answer.
Nobody thinks about what a huge problem low oil prices are!
CB cannot buy oil futures to life prices because they need to take physicslndelivert at that point of time. If they cannot take delivery, they have to sell to others. If they take delivery, they have to find space to store. So, no. CB is powerless to stop this decline.
Good point. (CB = Central banks)
Nope they levitate it via ETFs..
WTI was in the $19s a couple of hours ago…
bye bye $20s…
Yet, ETF/ETNs not moving, hah..
Again, that confirms the oil price smack down from Jan was under estimated by the plungers, and now are at least able to manipulate a bit the digital casino around it, which will eventually fail in two months of inventory buildup anyway, but for now the calming of markets works.
We would normally spend about NZD500 per month on petrol/diesel for our two vehicles.
We have been in lockdown a little over a week now. We have made ONE trip out of the property to buy groceries. That used perhaps NZD5 of petrol. We will likely do that once/week so we go from 500 to 20.
Extrapolate…
G.ETA = Happy Times.
But there gets to be an out of balance, if many diesel trucks still run and many gasoline/petrol vehicles do not. A barrel of oil gives a mix. You seem to have both kinds of vehicles.
This may be the real choke point, the Liebig minimum. From what I can see, after the grains are raised, agriculture is still very labor intensive which given the virus issue and social distancing makes for problems. The idea of smaller producers is seductive, but output is going to be much less which means there are social and population issues on the horizon not directly related to that population becoming ill. We are counting ventilators when the issue may be feeding the caregivers irregardless of whether or not they are sick. After a week without food, work becomes almost impossible and the biological imperative to survive probably becomes paramount.
Interesting times
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/dont-look-now-people-responsible-worlds-food-supply-are-starting-get-sick
Dennis L.
This is about the issue of too many absences in the food production industry from illnesses, making it hard to continue to produce as much food.
US armed forces and reserves… national guard…
all hands on deck…
if US leadership doesn’t keep the food production going…
I would expect a response of this sort, but a bit late, after shortages start to get serious…
better late than never…
120,000 dead maybe. At $15,000 socsec and $10,000 medicare that is 25,000*120,000=3 billion per year savings.
4,001
Lots of comments. I have been having a hard time trying to keep up and write a new post at the same time.
Does this metric hold true for OFW?
https://www.incomediary.com/how-much-traffic-website-gets#
“Another way to gauge the popularity of a blog is to look at how many comments it gets per post.
With my sites, I’ve found that an average of 1 out of every 200 readers leaves a comment. So a post with 20 non-Nicholas comments was viewed about 4,000 times. This changes with every post and every blog, but again, it gives you a general idea.”
You can always do an open post just for comments.
Spain said it needs Europe cannot do it alone. and not even central-southern Italy.
As problems arises, Europe is showing its limits and will probably not survive this crisis. The idea was interesting, but poorly executed anyway. Good riddance.
As the crisis worsens, and people start to realize this is not a temporary setback à la 2008, for sure people will start checking out like this guy:
German state finance minister Thomas Schäfer found dead
https://www.dw.com/en/german-state-finance-minister-thomas-sch%C3%A4fer-found-dead/a-52948976
I saw that too, maybe it is the realization that a lifetime of beliefs didn’t work, never worked. That is psychologically very painful.
This has been going on since the beginning of man, it is a speed bump.
Dennis L.
Maybe it was it was his guilty conscience, overseeing all the fraud and corruption in both banking and finance.
Well, as many psychologist would confirm the combo of leaving wife & kids and choosing a train for suicide files it in the very disturbed category of cases..
You have to be thick skin (outward) psycho to be active in higher politics or big biz and he was likely not of that pedigree (inward type).
Thank you for that insight, it is outside my world of experience.
Dennis L.
Or that he lost it all angering a few too many? Either it is him or his wife and kids.
Who knows at this stage. The strain runs deep and wide.
According to the article:
Today start the final count Down . Minus 10 weeks to end collaps. Event Is started 4 weeks ago. In14 weeks virus killed sick Economy of world
the machines that power industrial capitalism still exist and there is an energy glut now. Humans only provide 0.5% of the work needed by the economy, for the rest they operate machines. The probability of sudden collapse is zero, however to cope with the short term shock the probability of forced labour is very high, as well as the probability of the disappearance of many superfluous goods.
Exactly, this is not a computer virus or a bacteria that consumes oil. The Machine will continue to chug along perfectly fine.
Expect an enormous automation push to get closer to a 99.99% completely automated production and logistics systems. Humans are way too non-robust and failure prone.
The consumerism and era of humans is basically over.
https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU
A big leap in automation is only possible with a prosperous economy and abundant energy and resources. While we currently have an energy glut, the global economy is in bad shape and crippled under massive debt. It will very likely never recover to where it was before the virus.
I don’t foresee any of your predictions coming to fruition, quite the opposite actually.
We’ve been living beyond our means for quite some time. The era of human labor is about to resume.
“While we currently have an energy glut…”
energy flow is now crashing…
what we do have is plenty of FF…
but…
as Norman has taught us, it has no value unless it is burned…
The debt generation is driven by skimming and scamming the productive capital (know-how, humans and machines) and to enable consumerism to make it relevant, i.e. to make it appear to have value.
An ever increasing amount of energy in circulation (goods and services) of course needs the right amount of “lubrication” in the form of money to function properly. Hence ‘print until tilt’.
Most production is in principle simply waste and adds zero quality and sophistication to the ebbs and flows in the economy. Indeed, most of the economy is simply infectious gunk, a suffocating thick worthless mucus floating in the respiratory tracts of the economy.
Most technology is actually not created by the private industry, but out of necessity. Have for example the Internet. It is a DARPA funded project for a resilient means of information exchange that went “viral”. Pun indented.
The same holds true for modern telecommunications, it is basically military applications which found itself in consumer and industrial grade gear.
The automation provides a number of sources of resilience:
1. No machine demands a salary when it is switched off
2. A machine only consumes the energy it needs for operation and during its manufacturing. Compare it with humans.
3. A well built machine needs servicing and overhaul much less than humans.
4. A well built machine can easily outlast a human.
5. A machine does not go on strike.
6. A machine can be throttled from barely moving to working 24/7/365.
7. A machine is not prone to get infected by airborne viruses and if it gets hacked it does not bring down all machines in existence.
8. A machine does not enjoy making more machines.
The “superorganism” decided that enough is enough. Gaia isn’t picky of which of her children carries the memes and fundamental principles into interstellar space. A safe bet is that she definitely is not too impressed by the chauvinistic humanism of which socialism is the worst of expressions.
The self entitled and pretentious little ape that want to be that little special creature which evolutionary speaking relatively recently climbed down the trees now gets the hurt.
remember too, that machines do not buy other machines
machines do not employ other machines in the sense of paying them wages
Machines need the occasional servicing and eventually replacement. Just as humans. There’s the economy in that. A better economy.
The problem is actually the wages which causes the problems in the first place.
You have to stop putting the cart before the horse. Gaia has greater plans than to busying self entitled rapacious monkeys with various forms of useless frippery.
There is always a fantasy of humans that machines will take over everything. Can machines produce baby machines. Can machines mine iron ores independently ? Do they actually know how to go out and look for a nice place and say “Here is a good place to mine the palladium, iron, copper, etc”? Who is doing all the programming of the robots? Who is designing the circuitry.
It is hard for the people to accept the fact that machines requires humans and the entire fossil-fueled IC to function – from food to universities to the janitors in order for machines to be produced.
Don’t get me started on AI. AI is as dumb as the person who programs it.
“There is always a fantasy of humans that machines will take over everything.”
yes, you are spot on…
it’s just science fiction rubbbish…
don’t get me started on robots… robots and other machines do a lot of great work for us, as we designed them to do… and as we were able to build so many because of abundant net (surplus) energy from cheap FF…
but as the net (surplus) energy flowing through IC has peaked and is now forever lower, there will be less machines in the future, not more…
Ah, the irony of a doomer frantically poking away on a machine which they would have deemed impossible 60 years ago as “Star Trek fantasy”
Actually less humans, the rapacious monkey is much more resource intensive to manufacture and to operate.
The rest of the objections are quite weak and already answered. Below is a few irrefutable arguments more.
https://youtu.be/8nt3edWLgIg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTj0w0mnjcE
Around ~2min small scale ~2-3rd rate bar in Hollywood paying $1000 rent per day!
Madness of the bubble, who is the landlord, nutty Nancy?
“Poultry giant Sanderson Farms Inc. on Monday reported the first case of a worker at a major U.S. meat producer testing positive for coronavirus. The employee and six more from the McComb, Mississippi, plant were sent home to self-quarantine, with pay, but operations continued as normal.
“A few days later Smithfield Foods Inc., the world’s biggest pork producer, confirmed a positive case at its Sioux Falls, South Dakota, facility. On Friday, beef producers in Canada and Argentina shuttered plants after virus cases.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/food-workers-getting-sick-is-the-latest-threat-to-world-supply
“The coronavirus has heaped pressure on complex supply chains that stretch across borders and rely on a fine sequence to ensure products from medicines to vegetables arrive in time.
“The past few weeks of empty shelves, stripped bare by panic buying, and online food delivery websites crashing, have raised questions about the resilience of those chains.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pandemic-pushes-supply-chain-that-stocks-our-shelves-to-breaking-point-hkdnffsft
We keep talking about supply chain issues, but other folks don’t understand these issues.
No more near?
No more meat cheap? Sorry my t9
Can/Argentina (and US) beef slaughterhouses down, that’s getting serious..
These are probably the very last hours and days even for the less affected (well stocked) regions to get into serious panic buying mode..
Probably the last week or two to stock up on anything useful and storeable with a good chance of getting it delivered.
Inventories must be running down everywhere by now.
Yes, it seems the last “bell call” has arrived.
Unfortunately, yet predictably, even lot of the low tech (house hold / homestead stuff) is turning into unobtainable items pretty quickly..
Then comes the banks, power plants, internet service providers, utilities? Do they have plans in place just in case they have many cases of virus or if the workers decide not to turn up?
What if the parts that they need are considered non essential? (Cue the egg cartons shown in the earlier posts?)
What if the wholesale price of electricity is chronically too low? This seems to be what is happening now. It parallels the low price in oil. If utilities have built a system that accommodates home use, plus business and industrial use, then scaling back business and industrial use will cause a great oversupply problems. Utilities costs are largely fixed. The need the same number of employees, for example, regardless of whether industrial plants are operating or not.
Big buildings with lots of workers are a good way to pass around the virus.
Ventilation with air conditioning and recirculating unfiltered air is a killer. I wonder how this works in locked down cities?
Buy an air purifier to keep the aerosols away with the following features:
1. Carbon pre-filter
2. HEPA filter
3. Air ionizer / plasma generators
https://youtu.be/U4lth4_V2dA
add some UV ligt
India under lockdown. 100 million people are trying to reach their villages by walking. They will starve to death before they reach home?
Total chaos.
https://mobile.twitter.com/dwnews/status/1243948278175186947
“India’s sudden lockdown threatens food supply chains. Curfew on nation’s 1.4bn people leads to severe disruptions, hardship and widespread confusion.”
https://www.ft.com/content/1d77d839-5dab-408f-b2e4-3506d257771b
Why didn’t someone figure this out in advance? Calling back in the high denomination currency a year or two ago worked poorly for this reason.
If there were a few cases of COVID-19 in the big population centers, this is a good way to redistribute the cases back to the many villages around India. It is a little like sending the migrant workers in China home for the New Years’ holiday, just as the crisis broke out.
What are these people thinking? I am sure that there are not many fancy hospitals in the villages around India.
if the world has a collective intellect, there’s no better way than this to rid itself of the human cancer
in just a few weeks, we’ve gone from booking flights, buying cars and tv’s, to foraging for food
how long does this have to go on before we are killing each other for food?
when that starts to happen, the world can consider the cancer-surgery successful and can revert back to normal
What makes you think humans is not a part of the process?
It’s just a bit over the top now. It’s about time to start the culling and to crack down on the consumerism so that the Machine can take over this obnoxious comedy.
A pesky little rapacious monkey with sociopath tendencies need some proper chastisement.
Gail,
Perhaps we have an excess of people whose main job is policy totally disconnected from reality. We need government, it will always be inefficient which may be good as the mistakes are also poorly done, but it may be much leaner as there will not be the resources to support it.
It could be all the angst on the woke side is secondary to this coming downsizing and realization that the product of woke, policy, is no longer needed.
What I am hearing you say is “lousy policy.”
Dennis L.
“…movements on financial markets have real-world consequences.
“Tumbling asset prices hit the pensions of millions and make it harder for firms to access finance. Surging bond yields make it costlier to fund spending plans, particularly in poorer nations, where the threat of a new debt crisis alongside the health emergency could spell disaster.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/28/how-coronavirus-sent-global-markets-into-freefall
“…an orderly round of fiscal-monetary co-ordination in all major economies would require strong global co-operation. In the current absence of G7 or G20 co-ordination, or even deeper support for existing international financial institutions, synchronised debt monetisation will potentially disrupt foreign exchange (FX) markets.”
https://www.gulf-times.com/story/659531/Extraordinary-circumstances-require-global-fiscal-
Yes, it’s possible that even few more (-semi) IC nations will be smashed on FX similarly to that recent Australian case.. Apart from irrational speculative vultures appetite it would depend on what kind of industrial / product / service sector / demand is about to be smashed the most – so that’s for example why Italy is now well protected under EUR or at least ~30% devaluation is not possible in the near time..
There is a big difference in interest rates. Short-term rates of governments perceived to be fairly safe may be negative. Debt of businesses and governments perceived to be risky tends to be high cost, because of the (rightful) perception that it is not likely to be paid back according to the terms of the debt.
“The global oil market is broken, overwhelmed by an unmanageable surplus as virus lockdowns cascade through the world’s largest economies.
“Onshore tanks in many markets are full, forcing traders to store excess oil in idle supertankers. Refineries are starting to shut down because nobody needs the fuels they produce. In physical oil markets, barrels are already changing hands for less than $10…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-29/the-global-oil-market-is-broken-drowning-in-crude-nobody-needs
“As the oil and gas firms go into crisis, the banks that extended them credit may also face defaults.”
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/03/28/our-economy-sick-beast-corporate-debt-crisis-explained
“Negative crack spreads mean that refineries like Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) and Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) are operating at a loss. It’s a clear signal for refiners to start cutting gasoline and jet fuel output…
“…the U.S. Department of Energy suspended its plans to buy crude for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after the requested $3 billion failed to make its way into the stimulus package…
“The IEA has warned that global oil demand is likely to fall by a staggering 20 million bpd amid a global lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Refiners-Are-Having-To-Pay-To-Produce-Gasoline.html
I am sure that part of the problem is that gasoline and aviation fuel demand drops faster than diesel fuel. It is hard to change the mix quickly, no matter what the market is signaling.
It seems like this result could be seen. Turning off “demand” is horribly destructive to the economy.
Looking at the economic damage, as of today you could say that all the factories are just dormant and can be woken up easily. There might be some shortages but they will flatten out in some 6 months. This is different to a natural desaster where real capital is being destroyed. Also the homes, the infrastructure, everything is still in place and could be rebooted. The question is, if international trade will not come up with the pace, indebted companies will suffer but we could also say that this will allow big players to buy a lot for the cheap. There is not necessarily a collapse ensuing but more a gigantic demand shock. Many companies will suffer a lot because their calculations for debts will not match sales. Diving through some 6 months could in principle revert this but a long term depression is in the cards anyway and as one of the main thesis of Gail is that a growing economy needs growing energy supply and that folks is not in the cards. Hard times ahead but no crash as far as I see it.
Supply chains cannot be put back into place until all of the parts are in place. There is a huge “Liebig’s Law of the Minimum” or lack of egg carton problem.
Yes but the supplier factrories do still exist. Even if they close for a while in a default, the capital is still there, also the workers will be eager to go back to their old work to earn some money. A supply chain of a supply chain of a supply chain might be a problem but this is not terminal. There exists a window of opportunity. The governments must understand that besides only throwing money at the economy. Keep up the supply chains is the most urgent task now. Well people still argue about old people dying, and politicians follow suit. Does not look good
The price of the finished goods cannot be high enough to hire and adequate number of workers and pay the workers adequate wages. There are too many breaks in the supply chain. Migrant workers who have gone back to the village they came from will never be willing to come back again. If they do come back, they will discover that there aren’t enough jobs that pay well.
China is finding that layoffs are necessary. The WSJ in China Is Open for Business, but the Postcoronavirus Reboot Looks Slow and Rocky gives an example:
Also,
“The world is falling apart,” Mr. Wong said.
Yet, the prevailing idea is this is just a time-out in which we all hide from the virus, only to re-emerge to kick start the world economy into sequentially higher gears until it is running like before. Good luck with all that. I say this situation only goes on for so long before the financial wheels come off and our circumstances devolve into anarchy.
As the system was running on high revs before the coronavirus shut down, the continuing ageing of the populations will bring no restart, just the continuing shrinking of the economies.
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/3/9/40246456-15837884330699265.png
https://econimica.blogspot.com/2020/03/growth-corona-virus-decline-discuss.html
When the people return to the streets, they will see that the world has become older, including themselves…
Right. The leaders of countries, especially, are very old. We cannot depend on leadership from the elderly, indefinitely .
It’s that time again …. Time to Bash Jacinda Ardern… who really should be in a grade 3 classroom…
This is something I have been saying for some weeks now.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/120581185/antivirus-measures-are-too-late-to-stop-needless-sickness-and-economic-pain
Consider this:
When we brought our dogs from Bali to New Zealand, they were required to remain in quarantine in Hong Kong for 6 months, then they were tested for various diseases including rabies, before they were put on a flight to NZ.
When they arrived they were again quarantined for a few weeks, and tested AGAIN for disease, including rabies.
These strict protocols are the reason why New Zealand is rabies-free. Rabies can kill but it cannot tip over a country’s economy.
For some reason, the New Zealand government has not been nearly as strict when it comes to the Wuhan Virus, a disease will kill – a disease that has the potential to destroy the New Zealand economy.
Nope – up until a couple of weeks ago, Jacinda Ardern’s government continued to allow tourists to waltz into the country, except for mainland Chinese who were banned in early February.
Perhaps she was thinking that only Chinese tourists could harbour this virus and that all others were immune?
In spite of this massive screw up, Ardern is being hailed by the global media as a forward thinking leader who acted decisively to head of the Wuhan Virus.
She did nothing of the sort. And now the infection total is approaching 500 with the first death recorded as of today.
Is she otherwise “woke” on many issues? That would easily explain the msm love affair..
Yes, she is a wokie… not quite a woke as Justin …. nor GETA….
Always a bad idea to allow a grade 3 teacher to pilot a 737 MAX….
I have been thinking about this issue of needing farm workers. Here in Australia I wonder how easy it will be to get farm workers when they aren’t paid that much and the gov is now going to hand out $550 a week just to stay home unemployed.
Work for the dole instead?
Subsidise farm workers to make it a good paying gig?
thoughts?
There could be another reason people might choose to go to a farm this summer..
If the virus R0 is as high as it seems.. and if there are several different strains.. then the quarantine measures taken so far are just the beginnings.. because if this is the case, then these quarantines will last.. forever..
People will be bored to tears in just a week or two.. so.. there might be another reason than money to go to a local farm to help out. A farm needing seasonal help, would be the only place to venture outside without getting fined for it. And the only place to meet new people face to face..
Maybe people will choose to go to a local farm this summer, because all other choices available to them are as boring as f..ck
One of the highest probability scenarios for the future is that the current top elite would eventually let the crashing system flip into naked neo-feudalism. Obviously, there will be some skirmishes and reshuffles at the top, as some genuine mil types get ahead of those usual feather weight money scammers, but the bottom line remains: there will be farm slaves and plantation owners, and perhaps on marginal lands also few ~independent peasants-farmers-homesteaders..
No time for this!! Not order for this no Police no grid no order. Will be Total caos only
? Police, national grid ? , .. I was not writing about it and you don’t need that for feudalism, although it’s probable that some of the first gen chieftains will be able for few years to run small local regional (micro) grid as long as the spare parts on site and the tech itself last, but this will be likely very rural and away from major metropolitan hell holes.
Essentially, the flip from Imperial to “dark ages” followed similar pattern (remnants of old elites + new warlords combining gene pool), and many other comparable instances in the history of humanoids, so it will be likely the ~same again.
The earlier ‘flips’ were from, essentially, one kind of non-industrial agrarian economy- large landowners and slave estates – with towns and cities as the top extractive layer, developed trade networks, to another agrarian model with most of the towns swept away, only recovering slowly, and a much more modest ruling class with lots of legally free men and women, tribally organised and with very little trade.
Civilisation needed an agricultural base, and didn’t destroy it in the way industrialism has.
From hi-tech industrialisation to feudal agrarianism has – obviously – never occurred historically, and I suggest we should doubt it can happen, at least in the West.
Many areas of the world are in fact still semi- feudal and perhaps better placed.
Mass death in cities and an empty countryside is much more likely at this point in history.
For example, right now the farmers in the Pyrenees, traditionally a secure refuge for hardy and self-sufficient people (ferocious warriors, too) are now facing bankruptcy and the sudden and complete loss of their established markets.
Are they laughing at what is going on, secure in their traditional life? Not at all: they are as dependent on the cities, the grid and oil wells as any office worker: but their (and my) ancestors saw Rome rise and fall with barely a change in the pattern of their lives.
For 400 years the Roman milestones stood up by the side of the military roads, then they fell over and were covered by the forest, while the mountaineers went their way as they always had (one stone was dug up last year, marking the way to a Roman fort everyone had forgotten ever existed).
Today’s small farmers may well go bust, commit suicide, end up on the dole in town, in the very short-term. A way of life ended – definitively. Same thing for the deluded hippies and eco-fantasists who live in the deserted villages of the region, who bear no relation at all to the tough peasants of the past.
We are indeed much worse off, after collapse, than ancient civilizations were. The skills of workers could easily be transported elsewhere, even if the local civilization collapsed.
Thanks for the deeper perspective.
I knew it was more nuanced story, but you summarized it well.
Nevertheless, I’m still of the opinion that even the mid-scale “industrial” farmers (or depend upon distant market JITs) have higher chance getting cobbled something up sort of in low(er) tech response, the family / regional traditions and skills are not completely erased everywhere.
There are too many people. where there is a lot of land and few people maybe you’re right. but cities like New York? where will millions of displaced people go from the cities? they will go to the countryside to subvert the balance that is found every time starting from scratch. in New Zealand maybe everything will be fine. in Italy we are too many. and how many will come from Africa!
Feudalism and low tech agriculture. How many people in the developed world had the knowledge to do this? Do we have the skills, knowledge and seeds to do this? We need months to get the first harvest. Do we gave the luxury? Do the office workers or barista have the strength to chop trees? till the land? Fo we have suitable and undegraded land? While we wait for harvest orscout for land, how to handle the hungry hordes ? Are we still in the fantasy of “The Little House on the Prairie”?
Sorry.. do we have the luxury of time, waiting for months to get our first harvest?
Better together unemployment benefits than working in the farm. Unintended consequence
Russian oilco has left the server (in Venezuela)..
So, it’s getting serious out there in the world.
https://apnews.com/7d15631558f3caca5c0fe80eef2cdf23
So now the Venezuelan oil industry is owned by a Russian company!
The global transition to a local economy has begun..
https://www.euractiv.com/section/coronavirus/news/covid-19-france-calls-unemployed-to-work-in-fields-as-borders-stay-closed/
“Our farmers are running out of ‘helping hands’, help them”. This was the appeal launched by Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume to news channels BFM and RMC. It took many French people by surprise because the containment measures that had been in place for over a week in France were tightened further on Monday (23 March).
This shortage – estimated at around 200,000 people – was largely caused by the closure of borders following the coronavirus epidemic. As a result, seasonal workers from Morocco, Tunisia and Spain are not able to travel to France.
And the harvests of the coming months cannot wait. Asparagus, strawberries and cherries will have to be harvested in large quantities in the coming weeks. “To all those who have the time, we will need 200,000 seasonal workers within three months. We will welcome you in perfect safety conditions” announced the president of the FNSEA, Christiane Lambert.
—
Helicopter money is just an attempt to keep the old global system going for a little while longer.. But taking hundreds of thousands of people to learn how to grow food for themselves.. thats a game changer. It is actually the best first step for a new type of “local” economic system.
Not sure you really meant it that way, but the example above of seasonal slave labor for farming plantation in FR has basically nothing in common with trying people to learn how to farm. For that you need comprehensive package (man made or disaster made): land reform, rapid cloning of the few bio-farming experts as tutors, getting people back in the countryside, and serious level of overall depop, and .., ..
Unfortunately most will probably be so clumsy that they spoil and waste the crops.
You Tube; Arithmetic, Population and Energy – a talk by Al Bartlett
..Bacteria in a Bottle – closing of the last minute..
These are links:
Instant communication and cheap airline tickets are probably the main cause of this hysteria over this virus. If we turn back the clock 60 years or 70 years here people still use telegram (not the app) and flying is really for the rich, we would not even have this problem to begin with. Even if it were to start in Australia, it will probably end in Australia. The citizens in Lombardy will not even know the existence of the virus and thus no one will “ask the government to take any actions”.
Virus, assume that it is not man-made is a natural thing that happens all the time in the history of humans. It is as normal as rising sun.
The pandemics of -57 and -68 spread just fine with less flying.
I mean the speed of what is happening (changes daily) and the associated hysteria. It is ridiculous now as compared to a long time ago
Yes.
The Spanish Flu was transmitted internationally via the steamship.
And the plague in II Kings 19:35 was spread by an angel.
(Oh wait, that counts as flying)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-almost-meaningless-123550415.html
“Stanford’s Goodman said that he’s confident scientists will eventually collect the data we need to understand this pandemic and how it’s playing out in the United States. “Right now we are floundering in a sea of ignorance about who is infected and the fate of people who are infected,” he says.”