We have learned historically that if we can isolate sick people, we can often keep a communicable disease from spreading. Unfortunately, the situation with the new coronavirus causing COVID-19 is different: We can’t reliability determine which people are spreading the disease. Furthermore, the disease seems to transmit in many different ways simultaneously.
Politicians and health organizations like to show that they are “doing something.” Because of the strange nature of COVID-19, however, doing something is mostly a time-shifting exercise: With quarantines and other containment efforts, there will be fewer cases now, but this will be mostly or entirely offset by more cases later. Whether time-shifting reduces deaths and eases hospital care depends upon whether medical advances are sufficiently great during the time gained to improve outcomes.
We tend to lose sight of the fact that an economy cannot simply be shut down for a period and then start up again at close to its former level of production. China seems to have seriously overdone its use of quarantines. It seems likely that its economy can never fully recover. The permanent loss of a significant part of China’s productive output seems likely to send the world economy into a tailspin, regardless of what other economies do.
Before undertaking containment efforts of any kind, decision-makers need to look carefully at several issues:
- Laying off workers, even for a short time, severely adversely affects the economy.
- The expected length of delay in cases made possible by quarantines is likely to be very short, sometimes lasting not much longer than the quarantines themselves.
- We seem to need a very rapid improvement in our ability to treat COVID-19 cases for containment efforts to make sense, if we cannot stamp out the disease completely.
Because of these issues, it is very easy to overdo quarantines and other containment efforts.
In the sections below, I explain some parts of this problem.
[1] The aim of coronavirus quarantines is mostly to slow down the spread of the virus, not to stop its spread.
As a practical matter, it is virtually impossible to stop the spread of the new coronavirus.
In order to completely stop its spread, we would need to separate each person from every other person, as well as from possible animal carriers, for something like a month. In this way, people who are carriers for the disease or actually have the disease would hopefully have time to get over their illnesses. Perhaps airborne viruses would dissipate and viruses on solid surfaces would have time to deteriorate.
This clearly could not work. People would need to be separated from their children and pets. All businesses, including food sales, would have to stop. Electricity would likely stop, especially in areas where storms bring down power lines. No fuel would be available for vehicles of any kind. If a home catches fire, the fire would need to burn until a lack of material to burn stops it. If a baby needs to be delivered, there would be no midwife or hospital services available. If a person happened to have an appendicitis, it would simply need to resolve itself at home, however that worked out.
Bigger groups could in theory be quarantined together, but then the length of time for the quarantine would need to be greatly lengthened, to account for the possibility that one person might catch the disease from someone else in the group. The bigger the group, the longer the chain might continue. A group might be a single family sharing a home; it could also be a group of people in an apartment building that shares a common ventilation system.
[2] An economy is in many ways like a human being or other animal. Its operation cannot be stopped for a month or more, without bringing the economy to an end.
I sometimes write about the economy being a self-organizing networked system that is powered by energy. In physics terms, the name for such a system is a dissipative structure. Human beings are dissipative structures, as are hurricanes and stars, such as the sun.
Human beings cannot stop eating and breathing for a month. They cannot have sleep apnea for an hour at a time, and function afterward.
Economies cannot stop functioning for a month and afterward resume operations at their previous level. Too many people will have lost their jobs; too many businesses will have failed in the meantime. If the closures continue for two or three months, the problem becomes very serious. We are probably kidding ourselves if we think that China can come back to the same level that it was at before the new coronavirus hit.
In a way, keeping an economy operating is as important as preventing deaths from COVID-19. Without food, water and wage-producing jobs (which allow people to buy necessary goods and services), the deaths from the loss of the economy would be far greater than the direct deaths from the coronavirus.
[3] A reasonable guess is that nearly all of us will face multiple exposures to the new coronavirus.
Many people are hoping that this wave of the coronavirus will be stopped by warmer weather, perhaps in May or June. We don’t know whether this will happen or not. If the coronavirus does stop, there is a good chance the same virus, or a close variation of it, will be back again this fall. It is likely to come back in waves later, for at least one more year. In fact, if no vaccine is found, it is possible that it could come back, in various variations, indefinitely. There are many things we simply don’t know with certainty at this time.
Epidemiologists talk about the spread of a virus being stopped at the community immunity level. Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch originally estimated that 40% to 70% of the world’s population would come down with COVID-19 within the first year. He has revised this and now states that it is plausible that 20% to 60% of the world’s population will catch the disease in that timeframe. He also indicates that if the virus cannot be contained, the only way to get it under control is for 50% of the world’s population to become immune to it.
The big issue with containing the coronavirus is that we cannot really tell who has it and who does not. The tests available for COVID-19 are expensive, so giving the test to everyone, frequently, makes no sense. The tests tend to give a many false negatives, so even when they are given, they don’t necessarily detect people with the disease. There are also many people who seem to spread the disease without symptoms. Without testing everyone, these people will never be found.
We hear limited statements such as “The United States surgeon general said Sunday that he thinks the coronavirus outbreak is being contained in certain areas of the country as cases of the virus rise across the United States.” Unfortunately, containment of the virus in a few parts of the world does not solve the general problem. There are lots and lots of uncontained cases around the world. These uncontained cases will continue to spread, regardless of the steps taken elsewhere.
Furthermore, even when we think the virus is contained, there are likely to be missed cases, especially among people who seem to be well, but who really are carriers. Getting rid of the virus is likely to be a major challenge.
[4] There is an advantage to delaying citizens from catching COVID-19. The delay allows doctors to learn which existing medications can be used to help treat the symptoms of the disease.
There seem to be multiple drugs and multiple therapies that work to some limited extent.
For example, plasma containing antibodies from a person who has already had the illness can be injected into a person with the disease, helping to fight the disease. It is not clear, however, whether such a treatment will protect against future attacks of the virus since the patient is being cured without his own immune system producing adequate antibodies.
Some HIV drugs are being examined to see whether they work well enough for it to make sense to ramp up production of them. The antiviral drug remdesivir by Gilead Sciences also seems to have promise. For these drugs to be useful in fighting COVID-19, production would need to be ramped up greatly.
In theory, there is also a possibility that a vaccine can be brought to market that will get rid of the virus. Our past experience with vaccine-making has not been very good, however. Out of 200+ virus-caused diseases that affect humans, only about 20 have vaccines. These vaccines generally need to be updated frequently, because viruses tend to mutate over time.
With some viruses, such as Dengue Fever, people don’t ever build up adequate immunity to the many disease variations that exist. Instead a person who catches Dengue Fever a second time is likely to be sicker than the first time. Finding a vaccine for such diseases seems to be almost impossible.
Even if we can actually succeed in making a vaccine that works, the expectation seems to be that this will take at least 12 to 18 months. By this time, the world may have experienced multiple waves of COVID-19.
[5] There are multiple questions regarding how well European countries, Japan and the United States will really be able to treat coronavirus.
There are several issues involved:
(a) Even if medicines are identified, can they be ramped up adequately in the short time available?
(b) China’s exports have dropped significantly. Required medical goods that we normally import from China may not be available. The missing items could be as simple as rubbing alcohol, masks and other protective wear. The missing items could also be antibiotics, antidepressants, and blood pressure medications that are needed for both COVID-19 patients and other patients.
(c) Based on my calculations, the number of hospital beds and ICU beds needed will likely exceed those available (without kicking out other patients) by at least a factor of 10, if the size of the epidemic grows. There will also be a need for more medical staff. Medical staff may be fewer, rather than more, because many of them will be out sick with the virus. Because of these issues, the amount of hospital-based care that can actually be provided to COVID-19 patients is likely to be fairly limited.
(d) One reason for time-shifting of illnesses has been to try to better match illnesses with medical care available. The main benefit I can see is the fact that many health care workers will have contracted the illness in the first wave of the disease, so will be more available to give care in later waves of the disease. Apart from this difference, the system will be badly overwhelmed, regardless of when COVID-19 cases occur.
[6] A major issue, both with COVID-19 illnesses and with quarantines arising out of fear of illness, is wage loss.
If schools and day care centers are closed because of COVID-19 fears, many of the parents will have to take off time from work to care for the children. These parent will likely lose wages.
Wage loss will also be a problem if quarantines are required for people returning from an area that might be affected. For example, immigrant workers in China wanting to return to work in major cities after the New Year’s holiday have been quarantined for 14 days after they return.
Clearly, expenses (such as rent, food and auto payments) will continue, both for the mother of the child who is at home because a child’s school is closed and for the migrant worker who wants to return to a job in the city. Their lack of wages will mean that these people will make fewer discretionary purchases, such as visiting restaurants and making trips to visit relatives. In fact, migrant workers, when faced with a 14 day quarantine, may decide to stay in the countryside. If they don’t earn very much in the best of times, and they are required to go 14 days without pay after they return, there may not be much incentive to return to work.
If I am correct that the illness COVID-19 will strike in several waves, these same people participating in quarantines will have another “opportunity” for wage loss when they actually contract the disease, during one of these later rounds. Unless there is a real reduction in the number of people who ultimately get COVID-19 because of quarantines, a person would expect that the total wage loss would be greater with quarantines than without, because the wage loss occurs twice instead of once.
Furthermore, businesses will suffer financially when their workers are out. With fewer working employees, businesses will likely be able to produce fewer finished goods and services than in the past. At the same time, their fixed expenses (such as mortgage payments, insurance payments, and the cost of heating buildings) will continue. This mismatch is likely to lead to lower profits at two different times: (a) when workers are out because of quarantines and (b) when they are out because they are ill.
[7] We likely can expect a great deal more COVID-19 around the world, including in China and in Italy, in the next two years.
The number of reported COVID-19 cases to date is tiny, compared to the number that is expected based on estimates by epidemiologists. China reports about 81,000 COVID-19 cases to date, while its population is roughly 1.4 billion. If epidemiologists tell us to expect 20% to 60% of a country’s population to be affected by the end of the first year of the epidemic, this would correspond to a range of 280 million to 840 million cases. The difference between reported cases and expected cases is huge. Reported cases to date are less than 0.01% of the population.
We know that China’s reported number of cases is an optimistically low number, but we don’t know how low. Many, many more cases are expected in the year ahead if workers go back to work. In fact, there have been recent reports of a COVID-19 outbreak in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, near Hong Kong. Such an outbreak would adversely affect China’s manufactured exports.
Italy has a similar situation. It is currently reported to have somewhat more than 10,000 cases. Its total population is about 60 million. Thus, its number of cases amounts to about 0.02% of the population. If Epidemiologist Lipsitch is correct regarding the percentage of the population that is ultimately likely to be affected, the number of cases in Italy, too, can be expected to be much higher within the next year. Twenty percent of a population of 60 million would amount to 12 million cases; 60% of the population would amount to 36 million cases.
[8] When decisions about quarantines are made, the expected wage loss when workers lose their jobs needs to be considered as well.
Let’s calculate the amount of wage loss from actually having COVID-19. If workers generally work for 50 weeks a year and are out sick for an average of 2 weeks because of COVID-19, the average worker would lose 4% (=2/50) of his annual wages. If workers are out sick for an average of three weeks, this would increase the loss to 6% (3/50) of the worker’s annual wages.
Of course, not all workers will be affected by the new coronavirus. If we are expecting 20% to 60% of the workers to be out sick during the first year that the epidemic cycles through the economy, the expected overall wage loss for the population as a whole would amount to 0.8% (=20% times 4%) to 3.6% (=60% times 6%) of total wages.
Let’s now calculate the wage loss from a quarantine. A week of wage loss during a quarantine of the entire population, while nearly everyone is well, would lead to a wage loss equal to 2% of the population’s total wages. Two weeks of wage loss during quarantine would lead to wage loss equal to 4% of the population’s total wages.
Is it possible to reduce overall wage loss and deaths by using quarantines? This approach works for diseases which can actually be stopped through isolating sick members, but I don’t think it works well at all for COVID-19. Mostly, it provides a time-shifting feature. There are fewer illnesses earlier, but to a very significant extent, this is offset by more illnesses later. This time-shifting feature might be helpful if there really is a substantial improvement in prevention or treatment that is quickly available. For example, if a vaccine that really works can be found quickly, such a vaccine might help prevent some of the illnesses and deaths in 2021 and following years.
If there really isn’t an improvement in preventing the disease, then we get back to the situation where the virus needs to be stopped based on community immunity. According to Lipsitch, to stop the virus based on community immunity, at least 50% of the population would need to become immune. This implies that somewhat more than 50% of the population would need to catch the new coronavirus, because some people would catch the new virus and die, either of COVID-19 or of another disease.
Let’s suppose that 55% would need to catch COVID-19 to allow the population immunity to rise to 50%. The virus would likely need to keep cycling around until at least this percentage of the population has caught the disease. This is not much of a decrease from the upper limit of 60% during the first year. This suggests that moving illnesses to a later year may not help much at all with respect to the expected number of illnesses and deaths. Hospitals will be practically equally overwhelmed regardless, unless we can somehow change the typical seasonality of viruses and move some of the winter illnesses to summertime.
If there is no improvement in COVID-19 prevention/treatment during the time-shift of cases created by the quarantine, any quarantine wage loss can be thought of as being simply in addition to wage loss from having the virus itself. Thus, a country that opts for a two week quarantine of all workers (costing 4% of workers’ wages) may be more than doubling the direct wage loss from COVID-19 (equivalent to 0.8% to 3.6% of workers’ wages).
[9] China’s shutdown in response to COVID-19 doesn’t seem to make much rational sense.
It is hard to understand exactly how much China has shut down, but the shutdown has gone on for about six weeks. At this point, it is not clear that China can ever come back to the level it was at previously. Clearly, the combination of wage loss for individuals and profit loss for companies is very high. The long shutdown is likely to lead to widespread debt defaults. With less wages, there is likely to be less demand for goods such as cars and cell phones during 2020.
China was having difficulty before the new coronavirus was discovered to be a problem. Its energy production has slowed greatly, starting about 2012-2013, making it necessary for China to start shifting from a goods-producing nation to a country that is more of a services-producer (Figure 1).
Figure 1. China energy production by fuel, based on 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy data. “Other Ren” stands for “Renewables other than hydroelectric.” This category includes wind, solar, and other miscellaneous types, such as sawdust burned for electricity.
For example, China’s workers now put together iPhones using parts made in other countries, rather than making iPhones from start to finish. This part of the production chain requires relatively little fuel, so it is in some sense more like a service than the manufacturing of parts for the phone.
The rest of the world has been depending upon China to be a major supplier within its supply lines. Perhaps many of these supply lines will be broken indefinitely. Instead of China helping pull the world economy along faster, we may be faced with a situation in which China’s reduced output leads to worldwide economic contraction rather than economic growth.
Without medicines from China, our ability to fight COVID-19 may get worse over time, rather than better. In such a case, it would be better to get the illness now, rather than later.
[10] We need to be examining proposed solutions closely, in the light of the particulars of the new coronavirus, rather than simply assuming that fighting COVID-19 to the death is appropriate.
The instructions we hear today seem to suggest using disinfectants everywhere, to try to prevent COVID-19. This is yet another way to try to push off infections caused by the coronavirus into the future. We know, however, that there are good microbes as well as bad ones. The ecosystem requires a balance of microbes. Dumping disinfectants everywhere has its downside, as well as the possibility of an upside of killing the current round of coronaviruses. In fact, to the extent that the virus is airborne, the disinfectants may not really be very helpful in wiping out COVID-19.
It is very easy to believe that if some diseases can be subdued by quarantines, the same approach will work everywhere. This really isn’t true. We need to be examining the current situation closely, based on whatever information is available, before decisions are made regarding how to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak. Perhaps any quarantines used need to be small and targeted.
We also need to be looking for new approaches for fighting COVID-19. One approach that is not being used significantly to date is trying to strengthen people’s own immune systems. Such an approach might help people’s own immune system to fight off the disease, thereby lowering death rates. Nutrition experts recommend supplementing diets with Vitamins A, C, E, antioxidants and selenium. Other experts say zinc, Vitamin D and elderberry may be helpful. Staying away from cold temperatures also seems to be important. Drinking plenty of water after coming down with the disease may be beneficial as well. If we can help people’s own bodies fight the disease, the burden on the medical system will be lower.
Mayhem at the Trump casino…
The Super Moron Bubble Is Over
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xOhs94DU3Wc/XnKUake0dfI/AAAAAAAB8_o/7fxyN32dOREvA6Y23hpomx5S37oH-k31gCLcBGAsYHQ/s640/super_moron.png
“The Dow gave back ALL of the MAGA era gains today. The Trump Super Moron bubble has officially exploded…
We know it was named accurately, because those who populate the bubble have no clue that it’s over. Still buying the incipient depression with both hands.”
U.S. mother-frackers about to get more of the MBS treatment. Sub $20 oil on its way…
Oil Falls Again on Saudi Plans to Increase Crude Exports 43%
https://static3.bigstockphoto.com/7/5/2/large1500/257374585.jpg
“A full-on war for market dominance just got escalated by Saudi Arabia’s plans to further flood the world with excess crude oil.”
Hm, so perhaps Kevin above will get his embargo.. after-all..
Hey, sub-$20 oil is exactly what Gail said was needed to save BAU.
Could this be a sign that we’re saved? 🙂
??
Perhaps for a week or two, or a little longer. Governments cannot get enough taxes at this price. The financial system cannot hold up with the degree of clamp down on BAU.
Good news, at last, rejoice!
Jasmines began to bloom yesterday, and their heady scent fills the night, and I just saw the first nightkawk of the season! Who said there’s only bad news?
About 2 weeks ago bees were buzzing the cherry/plum’s white blossoms in front of our house, so we kept the window open wide to hear them.
Buzz honey bees! What’s not to like about them? Not even Mozart made such fine and sweet music.
Here is some truly excellent news!!!
SoftBank May Not Buy $3 Billion in WeWork Shares
The Japanese conglomerate is said to be reconsidering the part of its bailout of WeWork that would have left founder Adam Neumann with a huge payday.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/business/softbank-wework-shares.html
Senator Cramer is asking Trump to embargo Russian, Saudi and OPEC oil.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETarXc5WsAIs5-R?format=jpg&name=large
Interesting sign of the times, thanks for the upload.
I’m wondering is “Kevin” the Senator aware of the various blends on the market today (way different to previous 1970/80s events he cites) and how they differ to each other in terms of refining needs and markets, incl. the US alt oils.. simply doesn’t seem like that’s the reality with Kevin..
The text is also unclear on the threat itself is that only aiming at embargo for certain small say US bound contingent (volume) or even threatening full scale attack, i.e. going after extra territorial money transfers of said foreign oilies.. ?
Yes, I know this mostly an empty posturing so far, but in certain circumstances others might piggyback on it and crazy big stuff happens.
I think that the U.S is mainly importing and exporting oil to and from Canada and Mexico and can get the required blend by that mix.
Canadian prices are terribly low now. I expect Mexican prices are too. That may make this arrangement problematic.
I thought we needed to sell crude and well as buy crude, to get the right mix. If we embargo the imports, I expect that those countries won’t want our oil.
We interrupt this program to bring you another important message from the Master of Disaster… the King of Doom…. the Almighty One…. your Lord of Lords…. and the Greatest Prophet the World has Ever Witnessed….
Here he is…. Faaaassssst Edddddddyyyyyyyyyy…..
Thunderous applause as hundreds of millions have now joined the fan club… and are looking to The Saviour to .. save them…. they will soon realize that Fast Eddy is a False Prophet… but that’s another story… for now … his sh&t does not smell… and the groupies (fit, young, hot) are legion…..
‘Eddy.. Eddy… Eddy…. deliver us Fast!!!’ insist the millions… or is it billions???…. who’s that in the audience…. is it the Pope? Yes… the pope is in the front row… chanting Fast’s name…. and there’s Greta over there… and Lagarde in the VIP section … holding hands with Donald and humming Koombaya…..
The weight on Fast Eddy’s shoulders is enormous …. can he deliver???? I’ll hand you over to the play by play announcers as the world eagerly awaits Fast Eddy’s Words of WISDOM.
Clearing his throat Fast Eddy BEGINS!!! (how exciting is THIS!!!!!!!!!!!)
Friends, enemies, groupies, I will make this brief (thinking of the groupies that await… and the high grade coke and meth in the tour bus) – I have an interview to play for you.
Please listen carefully to the part about ‘closing the world for a month … asking people to return to their families… and spend time with them…. while the government takes care of the bills’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail
(shut down the world for a month — are you kidding Bill — as if this is possible — as if the CBs can pay bills for a month for 8B people— duh — what about the supply chain!!! — I smell BS Bill… my BS monitor is exploding)
Let me remind you of my prophesy long ago that at some point, as the end game for energy approached, the Elders would do something like this…. they could not just say ‘hey sheeple…. the global economy is going to collapse — go be with your friends and family and get ready to starve’
Oh no no no NO! That would set off an epic global calamity….
This had to be handled very carefully… and what better way to shepherd the sheeple than to infect them with a virus…. provoke a CONTROLLED panic … then convince them that they are NOT headed to the slaughterhouse… rather they are headed for SALVATION!!!
Go home — eat drink and be Merry…. treat this like a month of Christmas-like festivities (don’t mention that the mother in law will be around for the full month…) ….
And after a month…. we will have defeated the Wuhan Plague and we will get back to raping and pillaging our Mother…
We will get back to filling our garages with useless stuff…. we will go on torturing and enslaving each other…. we will continue to violate innocent animals so that we can stuff ourselves to the point of needing ‘mobility scooters’ to ride down the Walmart aisles buying more garbage to stuff into diabetes riddled bodies .. we will get back to social media and continue abusing and bragging …. (I could go on but you get the picture… we need to continue being ‘AWESOME’)
I give Bill Ackman my equivalent of an academy award for nearly breaking down during that interview…. well done Bill (Bill is definitely in tight with the Elders… see his surname)…. Actually Bill can have 50 of these… since the Tokyo Olympics won’t be needing tem (even a non-profit could predict that….)
https://www.nydailynews.com/resizer/hJZrnFynLw5VEsaQqiwMw5Ea5Cc=/1400×0/top/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tronc.s3.amazonaws.com/public/NHELTGTG4JHC3OKCOJJWTBWD24.jpg
Already there is movement towards a total global lockdown (family time) … the Philippines stops ALL flights in and out tomorrow…..
The only remaining piece to this puzzle is the Family Packs of Fentanyl…. Don Draper and his team are working OT trying to come up with a way to get this into the hands of the sheeple without them seeing a wolf …. I understand that they are reviewing the Jonestown files for ideas….
Hang on a sec…. what’s that… a phone call… but I am in the middle of…. oh it’s Don…
Fast pushes the pause button… walks off the stage to take a call…. hi Don what’s up… I was just talking about you…. haha ya …. oh sure I can send over some of the hot groupies… I have more than I can handle hehehe…..
Right…. oh I see…. yes I know who Jim Jones is…. of course… purple kool aid….
Yes that’s a good idea but might I suggest a slight change … instead go with red wine…. it ties in nicely with the Jesus imagery…. the sheeple will definitely buy into that…. yes yes… a Fast Eddy toast to ‘ending the virus’ a global toast….
You’ve got all the media lined up? How much are the MSM each paying for the live rights…. WOW…. that’s huge… and my cut is how much… That sounds fair….
How do we deal with time zone issue? …. oh your guys are working on that… ok…. I will leave all the details to you….
Oh the wine… can you send over two cases of this … I am thinking to have a VIP section with all the leaders from the G20 joining me for the toast….
https://www.wineinvestment.com/wine/bordeaux/pomerol/chateau-petrus/
Yes Don… I am DEFINITELY on board… talk soon. Click.
Fast Eddy returns to the stage….
Now where was I????
Have you upped your meds? 🙂
Unfortunately FE is the sane one.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/f2/c9/73/f2c973777ae6d6da52808605a00a7cc0.jpg
Indefinite voluntary quarantine for old and sickly people until a vaccine has been developed. Trucks service them with food and other life essentials, pro bono, for free, gratis.
Case closed. Do it.
Why even price of Gold go down??
You cannot eat gold. One needs cash to buy necessities
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/when-one-domino-falls-it-takes-the-entire-system-down-15268792
“Commodities, Bonds, Gold, Precious Metals, Equities — everything is being liquidated, no mercy. There will be casualties, we have yet to hear of them — just like 2008 — but this crisis is much worse than that, even. These are not investable markets, yet. Wait it out, the damage is beyond a small fix now. Containing the peak infection from the virus is the first step, then the next is getting the world engine to start, a harder task as the car has been stalling over the past two years.
The market in the past decade was labelled as the “Everything Bubble,” and what will it take to stem the demise? Everything.”
The depression will be more than an economic one, it will be a societal from grief of all the premature human losses.
But don’t worry, it will all work perfectly until it doesn’t. Like a comet striking earth, nuclear war, contagious viruses.
I guess Gaia is mighty tired of the obstinate monkey do mentality with severe sociopath tendencies. Time to send in a sobering message.
Moreover, chances are this will be L shaped (non)recovery crash, which is not in living memory of current investors and gov bureaucrats.. so the (over)response might be equally bonkers..
Better than riots in the short term for the govt. I imagine. This rusty old clunker will be hard to restart indeed.
Thanknyou you and Harry
TRY getting Physical actual SILVER rounds in any great quantity!
You’ll be lucky to fill an order for maybe 250 or so at a premium price.
Silver price beaten down but investors can’t find any, so what’s going on? Peter Hug
Kitco News Kitco News
Tuesday March 17, 2020 18:45
Silver’s future is bleak as a recession could wipe out any industrial demand left for the metal, this according to Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals.
Monetary policy was not enough to calm investors, Hug noted, as markets reacted negatively to the last Federal Reserve rate cut made last Sunday.
Ignoring the economics of a significant recession – it may be short lived, if we’re not already in it – if we ignore the economics of it, silver [is] an industrial metal and there would be virtually no demand for it,” he said.
Hug said that the recent price decline in metals is due to traders and investors liquidating their metals to meet margin calls, putting even more pressure on the physical market.
“Because there is no physical metal in the market right now, both the U.S. Mint and the Canadian Mint are on allocation with some products anywhere from four to six weeks out, at a minimu, we’re looking at a situation where there isn’t enough physical offtake to offset the selling of the ETFs and the futures, because there’s no physical product left to buy,” he said.
Lots of Paper wealth being thrown around….
Cash preferred, Marco.
https://www.rt.com/business/483411-us-stocks-crash-coronavirus/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jREUrbGGrgM
I don’t mind chopping wood and I don’t mind that the money is no good but they should have never taken the very best.
Thanks reminding us of the best song ever about the american civil war. It had to be a canadian who wrote it!
Thanks reminding us of the best song ever about the american civil war. It had to be a canadian who wrote it!
Sometimes to get the best picture an outsider is needed otherwise bias sets in.
So with that a big hat tip to the Canadians.
No Sh#t Sherlock
When One Domino Falls, It Takes the Entire System Down
TheStreet.com TheStreet.comMarch 18, 2020
It seems that the central bankers and monetary academics of the past century had a better grasp of our monetary system than the empty suits that run our central banks today. This is a fact and the Repo market is just one clear example of on what the current Fed’s policy of the past decade is routine based. Today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, rather than understand the problem and why it is happening, are just using the same old measures from 2008 and throwing it at the market every two hours, hoping that by trial and error one of them will cause some magical reaction and support asset markets everywhere
https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/aeec3d42-a903-392a-a5cd-7acace937b4c/when-one-domino-falls-it.html
In the most simplest of layman terms, the Coronavirus was a black swan event that left no choice but to expose a system that was already teetering on the edge. Due to the infectious nature of the pathogen, the entire global economy and businesses have had to shut down and go into lockdown to avoid it spreading further. This has meant that everyone in the supply chain — from retailers, businesses and companies down to the little fruit vendor on the street — are all struggling to raise cash fast enough as sales came to a grounding halt. They have fixed costs and expenses, so there is a rush for cash across the board, not only from banks but also corporates drawing all their credit lines down to the individual
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1Yt07XvY9zM
They all follow in the footsteps of Ben Bernanke who believes the Great Depression could have been avoided if monetary intervention was used instead of just watching things burn down on the sideline.
Bernanke, Yellen, Powell and the rest of the bunch believe all financial crisis can be papered over with money.
“They all follow in the footsteps of Ben Bernanke who believes the Great Depression could have been avoided if monetary intervention was used instead of just watching things burn down on the sideline.”
Sigh. Those who do not remember history… There was monetary intervention, massive monetary intervention. It was coordinated by the House of Morgan, Chase National Bank, and the National City Bank of New York. It was set in motion on 24 October 1929, when their agent, Richard Whitney, bought up almost everything being sold, and in addition placed substantial bids on various “blue chip” stocks at prices well above their current rate.
It worked! By the end of the day, the Dow Jones had recovered almost all of its losses. Except that next Monday, “Black Monday” it all fell apart, and the decline continued for another three years.
And remember, that was real money, backed 100% by gold or silver coin, as the US Constitution required (Article I Section 10). Propping up the economy with fake money is like trying to stop an avalanche with bricks of straw.
Ah, all those little hopes and dreams of the self entitled indebted and spoiled Swedish middle class. It will all just crash and burn until hyperinflation ensues.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/ac/0d/51/ac0d516f43f2f0bc18271de09b15a821.jpg
And now the sick and elderly are going to be sacrificed on the altar of institutional sociopathy.
https://cached-images.bonnier.news/cms30/UploadedImages/2020/3/10/b3e2b203-faa7-433a-8bc5-05336df21c54/bigOriginal.jpg
SHUT the MUTTER Down…
Dow Jones in Freefall as Wall Street Begs for Stock Market Shutdown
Asset managers reportedly urged the Bank of England to shut the stock market to stop panic selling. Will the U.S. follow suit
https://www.ccn.com/dow-jones-in-freefall-as-wall-street-begs-for-stock-market-shutdown/
Oh Momma. The JIG is up..Give it up
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rkGQGz7dvTs
Man, the show is very much entertaining…
Fun with numbers. USA gdp around 19 trillion per year. Let’s say it takes a 2 month shut down to stop this thing. That’s about 16 percent loss of GDP. So, .16 times 19 = 3 trillion. That’s around 9,000 dollars for every person. In my case, family of 5, 45,000. This is the amount they will have to give to the population in the form of cash, to keep the numbers up. Let’s see it they have the stomach for it.
Even if nations like the US do manage to implement helicopter money on this scale, there are plenty of already struggling nations that cannot get away with massively expanding deficits and issuing helicopter money like, for example, Argentina, Chile or South Africa, because it will hyperinflate their currencies.
What are they supposed to do when their economies are grinding to a halt because of this virus and demand for the commodities they produce is falling off a cliff?
Put a white hanky on a stick and wave it back and forth.
As good a strategy as any, Jason. 😀
Option 1. grow food
option 2 die
+++
209 million adults x $1000 1.2 trillion for 6 months.
fed is offering 1.5 trillion a week in repo
Apples and oranges?
Its a big club and we ain’t in it.
The interesting novelty development is that UBI like proposals are now coming out from the right or ~msm economists as well. So, the chances are growing we will indeed witness the implementation this doom cycle, and again it might be too late and futile activity within JIT / Wuhan-bug compromised world.
Actually, it could eventually materialize as mere “survival ration” stipend in the command like economy of the near future, so the ~ $1k will be of no other than caloric value.. just printed notional tag on the voucher.
“Prices of the WTI keep losing ground on Wednesday and are now breaching below the $23.00 mark amidst extra downside pressure.”
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-tumbles-to-fresh-lows-near-2280-per-barrel-202003181509
Oh, dear! Not enough businesses and industry open around the world. It everything were going well, Saudi Arabia could even pump all out.
Let’s pretend oil prices remained around $23. How long would it take to make shale/banks insolvent? And since we’re what iffing, what about if it drops further, say to $17 for a few weeks or something?
what if it drops into the teens for the rest of the year?
now $22.34
what if it drops below $10?
It’s down to $20.50 at the moment. Apparently we’re going to see the teens today. Unreal. Some of these finance stocks are down 20-40% today. Like, these are total meltdown losses here.
at that level filling stations won’t be viable
I agree but how long does it take for reality to catch up? A few weeks, months, or years? How long can the oil producers and the federal government keep the game going? Are we going to maybe see US nationalization of oil companies in the coming weeks?
Well, if it goes south of $23, you simply cash out more than current ~700% (I reported gradually on 250-500%) on leveraged shorts since Jan. The problem obviously being what you are going to buy with these “winning” proceeds if everything is falling apart around us, on-off production means shi-tzy quality, out of stock or quarantined dealerships etc. And the mood is turning that even the last hillbilly won’t be keen on selling the marginal acre from now on..
hm, so it peaked over 1000% briefly this trading afternoon (EDT).. easing now a bit..
Russia is on 2008 bottom again, so Saudies must be already knife stabbing each other inside their cold palace corridors..
btw, TSLA crashed to ~$360, it will be interesting follow up Elon if he goes private with the corporation now, as he boasted (“ready anytime”) previously should some unexpected event arrive..
This was prior to lockdowns:
“European car sales fell 7% in February. The sales decline means car sales in Europe are off to their worst start to a year since 2013 and are poised to deteriorate further after automakers across the region shuttered plants to counter the coronavirus pandemic.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/european-car-sales-are-off-to-the-worst-annual-start-since-2013
At least they’re not now churning out inventory that will never sell, I suppose.
“Three of Europe’s biggest carmakers are closing manufacturing plants across the region as the coronavirus pandemic deals a huge blow to an industry that was already heading for a third consecutive year of falling sales.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/16/business/fiat-chrysler-factories-coronavirus/index.html
Our of curiosity, I looked up Japan’s auto sales. I found the amounts, including Trucks and busses. They were down 10.3% in February and 11.7% in January.
Not doing very well.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/06/business/japan-autos-covid-19-disruption/#.XnJwAi2ZNTY
I don’t believe the 7% … I am thinking 70%….
Without proper healthcare in the third world, fallout will be formidable. 1B+ gone before we round up this year.
Actually, the fallout may be less. There are many fewer elderly people. There are many people who are not obese. The fallout is primarily economic and in governmental organization. Africa doesn’t have a “European Union” to disappear. As far as I know, the debt is primarily to the outside organizations (IMF, World Bank, perhaps some banks). Defaulting on this debt will not be a “big deal” from Africa’s point of view. These organizations will likely fail, but they were primarily set up so the developed nations could exploit African countries and developing nations elsewhere.
Africa, more than most other places, probably has the ability for some remaining group to go forward, with much less dependence on outside resources. Its birth rate is already high enough to handle multiple epidemics.
If it wasn’t for industrial agriculture supporting the 1.2B people in Africa.
Filth and disease will get the weak and starving.
Probably. The population of Africa was much lower before Africa started to get Western food and medicine. Africa can probably support a smallish population without Western food and medicine, but not today’s population.
The fallout will be world wide. The fallout will be relative to a base of 7.8 billion.
interest rates on 10 year Treasury are rising ! Higher interest rates will surely crash the system!
Thankyou so much it is indeed very helpful at this panic time….cant write much just one word from India thank you for rightful information…Jai hind
Throughout history, denial has yielded to reality in stages—and usually too late, according to Galli, who helps oversee the fight against infectious diseases in Lombardy, the region around Italy’s financial capital, Milan. “There’s a first phase, in which you elbow it away, saying, ‘Our neighbor has it, ah, scary, but he’s got it.’
Then there’s the phase in which you realize it’s arrived in your house and you deny it, ‘No it’s impossible!’ ” Galli said on Italy’s La7 television network on March 5. Next comes a tug of war in which inhabitants debate harsh preventive measures that are, tragically, reduced or taken too late.
“Finally, there’s the phase of total ruin, in which the sickness runs rampant,” he said—emphasizing that parts of Italy have reached that point. “If people think I’m exaggerating, tell them to come and see what’s happening in our wards.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-18/this-is-life-in-italy-during-the-coronavirus-lockdown?srnd=premium-asia
https://youtu.be/rfkbv_WQtn0
Yes that’s why I find the post of the German pulmonologist on here saying it’s all exaggerated very disappointing. Off the cuff statistics ! Come on Gail! That’s a cardinal sin in statistics! I can find the truth anymore; I give up this is just a waste of time!
Yeah and then there’s this from Edward Griffn website https://needtoknow.news/2020/03/corona-bologna-the-truth-begins-to-leak-out-in-italy-the-overwhelming-majority-of-deaths-are-linked-to-other-illnesses/
The president of the Italian Higher Institute, Silvio Brusaferro, said that medical records indicate: “There may be only two people who died from coronavirus in Italy, who did not present other pathologies.” He acknowledged that the average age of death was over 80 years old and that the majority of them had serious chronic diseases. He said that only about 100 medical records have come from the hospitals throughout Italy. The entire country of 60-million people has been locked down despite the fact that the majority who died actually expired from other diseases that have nothing to do with Covid-19. -GEG
The mortality rate in northern Italy is 20 times as high as in Europe on average.
Northern Italy is Italy’s industrial centra with pollution levels almost as high as in China.
This virus is shutting down the industrial world.
Having televisions and videos allows us to see what goes wrong. Sort of like the television of the Viet Nam wars. Before that, there had been wars, but people only got a limited view after the fact. Once people saw they videos of the Viet Nam war, they wanted to “do something” and end the war.
We have something like that now. If we only had all of the medical staff needed, and all of the ICU beds, and all of the respirators needed, clearly we could fix the problem. Except we couldn’t. Paying for such a huge healthcare system would bankrupt the system. Healthcare is already bankrupting the system. We cannot really shift all of our resources to healthcare. We also cannot shut down the whole economic system for months at a time, to try to reduce COVID-19 illnesses. It’s a no win predicament.
“”Banks borrowed the largest amount of six-month sterling funds from the Bank of England on Tuesday since the run-up to the 2016 Brexit referendum, a sign of demand for cash as the coronavirus crisis hammers financial markets.”
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-8121295/Coronavirus-effects-UK-financial-plumbing.html
“Morale among German investors has fallen through the floor amid the coronavirus outbreak, a survey showed today, as a global recession becomes increasingly likely.”
https://www.cityam.com/german-investor-morale-collapses-on-coronavirus-epidemic/
“If the downturn persists, many Italian companies could find themselves short of the profits needed to repay their loans. That could weaken bank balance sheets to the point of crisis.
““It’s likely that banks will need to be rescued,” said Nicola Borri, a finance professor at Luiss, a university in Rome. “The economy has basically been stopped. We are probably going to see massive defaults. Clearly, Italian banks will be badly hit.””
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/business/italy-banks-coronavirus.html
“The echoes of the eurozone debt crisis are perhaps even more worrying: Greek, Portuguese and Spanish bonds have weakened out of sympathy with Italy.”
https://www.ft.com/content/3e372b66-684a-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3
All of these bad results should not be a surprise!
The Fed will now accept equity as a collateral in the term Repo’s.
“Collateral eligible for pledge under the PDCF includes all collateral eligible for pledge in open market operations (OMO); plus investment grade corporate debt securities, international agency securities, commercial paper, municipal securities, mortgage-backed securities, and asset-backed securities; plus equity securities.”
The credit market is frozen. The Fed is trying to get liquidity into the market trough: ZIRP, QE, $1T Repo’s and dollar swap lines to other central banks.
“investment grade” Isnt what is needed a ok for junk bonds?
“Conveniently, repo transactions are completely anonymous, and while the Fed records how much they inject in the repo market, what primary dealers then do with the collateral is a complete mystery.
“So when any institution gets into trouble, the central bank transfers emergency funds to the primary dealers, who then transfer the funds to the distressed entity: a hidden interbank bailout. It gets more interesting when you realize foreign banks have access to the repo market, meaning the Fed can rescue any global financial institution in secret — hidden from the public eye.
“Which makes you think: what happened on September 15th, 2019? Why did the Fed intervene? Was a bank bailed out right under our noses? Was there a deeper technical problem in dollar funding markets? And why, all of a sudden, has MBS (mortgage-backed securities) issuance risen?”
https://www.tradersmagazine.com/am/silent-bailouts-how-the-federal-reserve-avoids-financial-panics/
Thank you, Harry, an excellent summary. When financial transactions are transparent, money flows to the most productive; when they are opaque, it flows to the most corrupt. As happened in 2008, and as I fear is happening again.
Totally useless, it will be mostly worthless anyway without the productive. Can’t eat digital symbols and large albatross lifestyles of “wealth”.
Get a STEM degree, figure complicated sh1t out. Work towards the irrelevance of mankind. It’s the only way to “save” it.
A STEM degree is not of much help, without all of the complexity and devices we have become accustomed to. Electricity is not going to last very long. Without electricity, it is difficult to provide water that can be drunk without boiling.
We will need physically strong men, and women who can bear multiple children. The survivors of this bottleneck will have to go back to the values of the past, or a new version of those values.
Look Gail, we have failed and you want to continue the farce, for what reasons?
Let Gaia heal herself and wait a few eons until the process start anew with a smarter sentient being, with her replenished stocks of oil, gas and coal.
Maybe next time she can give birth to an interstellar species. Not this time however.
https://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/W87clr.jpg
It will be beautiful.
https://www.sunoven.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/27369711294_1cc2f0d7ee_o.jpg
“… we have failed and you want to continue the farce, for what reasons?”
you are here at OFW participating in the “farce”…
for what reasons?
I would not be alive if it wasn’t for IC. I will not be alive when IC is gone. I have no vested interest in continuing this parody.
I place no value in the pitch black nothingness of my own existence and to work towards the total and utter irrelevance of mankind.
If it is not possible due to total economic collapse, let the warheads finish off the bread and circuses as the ultimate Grande Finale of mankind.
My human chauvinism is below zero.
Let us assume that countries decide against quarantine and people start to get back to work as though nothing happen and it is accepted that this virus will stay with us (Xabier, Norman, etc in UK – take note – herd immunity)
1. What is the human reaction to this epidemic (not pandemic anymore) when you read in the news paper that 40 people died today. 10 just collapse in subway and 30 died in the hospital. It is assumed to be COVID-19. No testing is done because it is too common now.
** What are the chances of this happening and humans just shrugged it off since it is already a big mess now (with all the lockdowns?)
** What happens to the mood of the people? Will they go back to normal and someone say “Oh That Aunt Matilda, she just collapsed in the subway and was stretchered out. Possibly COVID-19, easy come, easy go” ??
Flu is contagious and not that deadly. Heart disease is deadly but not contagious.
2. If every country has about 50-80 cases per day (assume that it is reported like South Korea), how will the tourism be? Let us assume that, we are now forced to accept this as “the way to go” (herd immunity), will any of us here going to take a holiday to Wuhan, Italy or South Korea next month?
If by miracle this turns out to be well, I don’t think people are willing to travel easily anymore.
3. Let us say there is a vaccine that comes out tomorrow and it is cheap, effective and fantastic. The psychological scars are so deep that it will take a long time to heal.
** The economy and supply chain may never heal. Moving out from China?
What we don’t have is time. Economy must be vibrant and on-going. If it hits a tipping point, it will go to another state which is lower than present state and there is a distinct possibility that it will never go back up to the higher state again. That lower state of economy, due to human psychological scar and lower complexity may cause it to abruptly cease to exist because the lower complexity may not support that kind of “state of economy which is lower” (i.e. FedEx cannot go back to fax and telephone tracking of parcels instead of internet because internet is gone. It will just close down)
Bottom line – if anyone can enlighten me on how it will play in a positive way, please help me. Very much appreciated.
p.s. sorry for the many posts… Lockdown here. Staying at home. My mind is very active.
CTG, I look at our networking system the same way. Modern telecommunications cannot simply drop down to a lower level of complexity and continue operating. How long can our telecom network continue operating when failing servers can no longer be replaced? Or how long does the cloud last when failing memories cannot be replaced? I think we normalize and think the internet is with us forever, as if it is part of our normal organic world.
While totally unexpected, I think we will start seeing signs of degradation of the telecom system. An outage here, an outage there, until it become regional, then national in scope.
Consider modern corporations….they are totally and irretrievably internet dependent.
When the internet goes dark, we go back to the 1800s level of economy…but worse due to our current level of skill and health.
Those people in the 1800’s were actually usually quite sick: TB, parasites, alcoholism, malnutrition, effects of perpetual pregnancy mostly – but they knew how to do a hell of a lot more compared to us, who are helpless if our micro-specialisation no longer exists.
Once gain, kick all the rungs of the ladder out as you climb to the top, and it’s certainly a great view, but nothing to stop the fall…..
Yep even after “smaller batch” 3-4th child delivered + less nutritious diet/land + lot of extra hard work (no appliances) and you are terminal wreck at the age of ~35-40..
+++++++++
Funnily enough, as the fragility increases the popularity of various retro and DIY approach low tech channels is on the rise in the digital space. There must be certain subconscious vibe to it – learn as much stuff and as quickly as possible..
We don’t have to lose as much memory as we currently do. No other declining civilization had the benefit of having been globally networked, or the ability to be as universally informed about essential risks or resources. No other had the capacity consider the unitary global climate. It’s much harder, however, to think comprehensively about other groups and nationalities than it is to think about oceans and forests and climate universally. We very much need to relegate human groups to a secondary position behind nature or place. Place rather than race.
Oh shit — I hadn’t thought of that … if we go global lockdown — obviously no internet… when MElenials cannot access FB and Instagram they will off themselves by the millions!!!!
BTW – we have the two kids from the Peens here still … one of them is taking a gap year and has a work sponsor… he’s applying for a work visa and needs a police clearance from the Peens….
The Peens is in lockdown – no public transportation on Luzon and government offices are on skeleton staff (+ they are all corrupt and useless at the best of times so imagine now!).
Anyway immigration NZ was insisting on this document — I explained the situation — I also explained that as of tomorrow (the kid’s student visa expires end March) he cannot enter the Peens… all flights stop….
She’s just called me back and said if I can provide evidence that the police report is not available they will make an exception and allow him to sign a doc here stating he has not been convicted of a crime.
Such a minor matter … yet as the officer said ‘we are in uncharted territory’ — not all matters can be resolved with a bit of common sense on the part of the NZ govt.
Alas I am quite relieved as I have trained that boy to be a crack shot and I need him to man the Wall.
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/PhRVxh9CT5I/maxresdefault.jpg
Good thoughts – keep them coming, CTG!
The question is -setting aside economics and finance for a moment – how can we reconcile ourselves to pre-Modern conditions of life with modern expectations of good health, effective medical intervention, and long life expectancy?
The only way is to obtain high leverage of “good living” then..
Lot of producing land per person / family unit in the country side, and very small cities.
Which is obviously the old concept of striving for balance inside very volatile surrounding both in terms nature and the human bunch (fluid / changing) vectors.
So far historically speaking this “peak paradise” has been achieved always only for very brief moments – preceding and followed by carnage (disequilibrium in those parameters)..
viruses evolved to keep the planet healthy
not to make it unhealthy
they knock off mainly those who are weak and or sick in some way, leaving the field clear for those who are not
brutal i agree, but no species has sufficient surplus energy available to sustain the life of every one of their number. In that respect humankind is an oddity.
And that’s what it comes down to. Everyone seriously ill with this virus (or anything else for that matter) consumes a vast energy resource supplied by the rest of us.
Except that it isn’t supplied by the rest of us, it’s supplied by fossil fuel surpluses’
Humankind had no mass healthcare until oil surpluses made it possible.
In most of the world, this ‘healthcare surplus’ was made available to the majority
The USA has no mass healthcare because fossil fuel surplus that would otherwise support it was creamed off by a tiny minority. They called it capitalist free enterprise
You just don’t need intensive “healthcare” in society with good gene-pool (no over pop) and nourishing (non depleted) environment, the unfortunate (low) numbers of serious life threatening accidents and illnesses (today’s surgery cat) only balances the pop..
It’s just the sad reality how humanoids branched out to terra-form the entire planet (crawling into all biomes) and could not there keep balance in the resource equation for longer span of time.
It’s jut not in the cards, perhaps there will be later revision of this species, but I doubt it.
It is hard to see it ending well, especially after it has gone down the road this far, this way.
People are convinced that the health care system can and will save them, given how much discretionary income people have. The healthcare system is already way too expensive. Increasing the cost of the healthcare system greatly, to try to save people who are elderly and in poor health, simply cannot work.
The dying will be a one-off event, and not done in public. And mostly by very old and sick people.
If we had just thought of corona as a really bad seasonal flu economy wouldn’t have hurt much.
Unfortunately you are wrong. The flu takes a year to spread this has spread in months. And it’s much more dangerous
Spot on.
Maybe Australia will do what China is doing — force the MSM to not report on the deaths and infections — or fake the numbers.
They obviously are already doing that. But they may enforce that under some sort of National Emergency ‘in the interests of the country’ rule.
Problem is … the people will want to believe the numbers… but they’ll know of people who are dying or very sick but unable to get into a hospital… so the MSM will be unable to ‘turn a circle into a square nor make people believe 1+1=3…..
Governments are currently in this position:
https://farm1.staticflickr.com/77/203388870_598e4417bf.jpg
Mother… oooaaaaooooohhhhh … ship me a a case of whiskey… and a sack of high grade coke… and a chaser of Fentanyl…. and a gal or two…. and I’ll say sorry on behalf of everyone…. and we’ll call it a day. (add a country and western twang and you’ve got a hit song in the making….)
“and a gal or two”
What does Mrs. Fast have to say about that, or does she understand it’s the end as well, so she is willing to do you this favour 😉
“The swift hit to the U.S. economy from efforts to stop the spread of the coronavirus has created a crunch in credit markets that threatens to turn an economic downturn into a financial crisis.
“Companies have rushed to raise cash by drawing down credit lines and other borrowing, as they face a sudden shortfall in revenues. The ripple effect has been a whammy to credit markets, sending many spreads wider across the markets and even stalling out the commercial paper market, where the highest rated companies go for cash.
““We’re speeding towards one. We need to deal with this. This is real now. All the red flags are raised,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/credit-markets-signal-the-us-could-be-heading-towards-financial-crisis.html
“Supermarket shelves are being cleared and in financial markets, cash is the only precious commodity. The hoarding of cash by banks, investors and companies illustrates the vast wave of deleveraging that is taking place across financial markets with the echoes of 2008 getting louder and louder.”
https://www.ft.com/content/cefa96d6-686a-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3
“The dystopian reality of deserted airports, empty trains and thinly occupied restaurants is already badly hurting economic activity. The longer the pandemic lasts, the greater the risk that the sharp downturn morphs into a financial crisis with zombie companies starting a chain of defaults just like subprime mortgages did in 2008.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/opinion/coronavirus-economy-debt.html
“Central banks are facing the possibility of having to deal with a liquidity crunch in dollar funding markets, as cash-strapped firms draw down credit lines in the face of the coronavirus shock.”
https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/financial-stability/7506796/central-banks-grapple-with-dollar-funding-crunch
“The world’s richest nations prepared more costly measures on Tuesday to combat the global fallout of the coronavirus… But even with the promised cash splurges, world stock markets and oil prices were unable to shake off their coronavirus nightmare…
“A global recession beckons, with parallels to the 2008 financial crisis.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/18/business/economy-business/global-powers-trillions-dollars-coronavirus/#.XnHhqaj7TIU
From the article:
“When markets fall, millions of investors feel less wealthy and cut back on spending. The economy slows. The bigger markets get, relative to the economy, the larger this negative “wealth effect.”
The author had better be careful; he is in danger of talking classical economic theory:
“Some of the finest qualities of human nature are intimately related to the right use of money; such as generosity, honesty, justice, and self-denial; as well as the practical virtues of economy and providence. On the other hand, there are their counterparts of avarice, fraud, injustice, and selfishness, as displayed by the inordinate lovers of gain; and the vices of thoughtlessness, extravagance, and improvidence, on the part of those who misuse and abuse the means entrusted to them.”
Samuel Smiles, in 1892.
Re, Australia: Let’s play Russian Roulette, shall we?
What a fascinating experiment!!!
This could explode in their faces.
I suspect they will find that it doesn’t matter what they do…. the result will be the same.
FLATTEN THE CURVE! FLATTEN THE CURVE!! (I like that tagline…)
I also like:
WE BURN YOU BURN.
And of course STAND WITH HONG KONG.
Won’t be long before the government is fully eating its words, and go full lockdown. In two weeks we’ll be at 6000 cases. In one month 100k + based on the rate of infection.
For those who don’t believe it, witness how the UK government is now backtracking from just last week’s position of “herd immunity”, now that cases and deaths have exploded. Only a matter of days before the UK shuts down.
They think they can flatten any adverse change. Before this, they were talking about smooth and gradual transition away from fossil fuels–a transition that would be made possible by legislation or market liberalization. It doesn’t matter what their preference is, it would still be them–I’m talking about the “TEDx Talk” people–acting on the belief that they can do anything.
Italy’s bankruptcy thermometer marks 280 basis points Spread BTP Bund….at 400 are defoult
http://oil-price.net/
Dub & Brent both in the 20s — Gail T.’s invisible hand?
WTI at USD26.08 now. Whoaa…. when will be before it hits -USD0.10 ?
It could be soon if those speculators (financial people not really buying the oil for usage but to speculate) need to pay for storage and it is not worth the money paid and decide to lose all by selling at USD10 so that they don’t pay for delivery.
If the speculative amount of oil is huge and if someone quotes USD10 to sell, then the price will drop to USD10 (?). That will be epic.
We should imagine the oil as the fuel provided by the producers to the countries that produce products for the exporters of oil. If the production in the oil importing countries is falling, the fuel must by cheaper, so that these countries continue/restart the production for the oil exporting countries.
I see no tragic in the too low oil prices. As it is more important to produce and import goods than to have a lot of money from selling costly oil.
It is sure, that the countries that rely on high oil prices and have no energy alternatives like nuclear, will end up like Venezuela.
“it is more important to produce and import goods than to have a lot of money from selling costly oil.”
What about the “elephant in the room” — the ever-increasing COST of extracting, & getting the oil to market, as depletion continues?
JH Kunstler wrote recently something like, these prices will drive a wooden stake through the heart of the US oil-fracking endeavors; but, EIA data indicate that world “peak oil” occurred in about November, 2018 — I would expect world post-peak oil production to “round the top” gently; but, after that, might things like this make the downturn tend to accelerate?
The point is that with the money creation and ramping up the debt the decreasing minority is saved with enough resources while the increasing najority becomes poorer and poorer.
I expect the drop in world fossil fuel production, as well as renewable production and consumption will be pretty steep going forward.
I got the timing wrong back in 2014 when I put this chart together, but the shape is likely close to right. The peak is, in fact, at November 2018. The steep downturn begins in 2020. The points are only at 5 year intervals, so there can be a bit of rounding in the actual production. I should look at actual reported production data to confirm what is happening.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/tverberg-estimate-of-future-energy-production.png
^^^A graph that has haunted my dreams for some years now, lol.
I am afraid oil exporting countries will find their governments overthrown. They will end up like Libya. In fact, Venezuela will end up like Libya too. There will be lots of warring factions, and not a whole lot of production. What production there is, will be quite variable.
So, in Australia, the government has decided to let the virus burn through the population, because of the economic hit involved.
They’re saying that they don’t want to ruin the economy if the virus is just going to come back anyway. basically admitting that there is no treatment, immunity, or cure.
Politicians and medical officials are saying that we’ll be ok because…kangaroos.
Any possible vaccine is 12-18 months away.
In the meantime, the airlines got bailed out.
>> http://bit.ly/3d30kZH
https://youtu.be/qRTvQw8rXzw
After looking hard at, and thinking hard about, the current “pandemic panic”, it seems to me worth considering whether the correct government response might be … nothing. Perhaps this is another situation where Nature is wiser than Man, and if left alone will bring about a better outcome. Yes, we should worry about “the economy”, but government stewardship of the real economy, the economy of production and consumption, of goods and services, of energy and entropy, has been worse than abysmal. Perhaps a radical decentralisation and relocalisation are now inevitable, and therefore should happen now, while we still have some stockpiles that can be drawn down while new and better arrangements are being made.
Nature is not wise, as the nature does not mind humans. All depends on the available resources needed for the existence of the human species. When the supply chains disrupt, then there is no existence for the weak human population.
“Nature is not wise, as the nature does not mind humans.”
Interesting. I come to the exactly opposite conclusion: Nature is wise, because She does not mind humans any more than the other creatures in this world. They take their chances, and so should we.
Our ancestors had to cope with dozens of deadly diseases and still managed to keep calm and carry on.
Many of them lived lived lives of drudgery and few of them survived for as long as sixty years, but they did their best with the live they were granted and the hand they were dealt.
Anyway, let’s have a round of applause for our ancestors. We’re here today because they had The Right Stuff!
Tim, the applause is given; but perhaps they deserve also a more fitting remembrance:
“Let us now praise famous men, and our fathers that begat us.
The Lord hath wrought great glory by them through his great power from the beginning.
Such as did bear rule in their kingdoms, men renowned for their power, giving counsel by their understanding, and declaring prophecies:
Leaders of the people by their counsels, and by their knowledge of learning meet for the people, wise and eloquent are their instructions:
Such as found out musical tunes, and recited verses in writing:
Rich men furnished with ability, living peaceably in their habitations:
All these were honoured in their generations, and were the glory of their times.
There be of them, that have left a name behind them, that their praises might be reported.
And some there be, which have no memorial; who are perished, as though they had never been; and are become as though they had never been born; and their children after them.
But these were merciful men, whose righteousness hath not been forgotten.
With their seed shall continually remain a good inheritance, and their children are within the covenant.
Their seed standeth fast, and their children for their sakes.
Their seed shall remain for ever, and their glory shall not be blotted out.
Their bodies are buried in peace; but their name liveth for evermore.”
(Ecclesiastcus xl: 1 to 14)
seems to me, that the difference between our forebears and ourselves, particularly in regard to disease, is that they accepted disease and early death as their lot, the will of god or whatever. Nobody knew what caused disease. malaria was literally ‘bad air.’
whereas we now know that cures are available for most of what ails us, and demand that medical services deliver it, irrespective of cost
Not saying we shouldn’t do it, but healthcare must eventually bankrupt those who seek to provide it.
They also didn’t have a Just in Time supply chain nor a complex interconnected financial system — which if compromised, they would starve. (as we are about to)
FE, again history says otherwise. At the height of the Empire, the city of Rome had over one million inhabitants. fed almost entirely by the “annona”, the bread dole. This in turn was baked from corn grown in Egypt, and shipped halfway across the Mediterranean. When Queen Zenobia captured Egypt in 270 AD, the first thing she did was to stop the grain shipments, leaving Rome about three weeks away from starvation. Fortunately for Rome, the Emperor Aurelian was able to defeat her, albeit with a lot of trouble. But when the real collapse happened a couple of centuries later, the population of the city fell from one million to about ten thousand. Perhaps we shall see the same fate overtake New York.
Robert, would you agree with me that cities are where civilizations go to die?
😷
For Kowalainen:
Cities is where civilisations are born and flourish. They climb the cliff of progress, prosperity, artistic endeavour, until they reach a summit of greatness. But it is the summit of a Seneca Cliff, and great is the ensuing fall.
Civilizations start with trade. And dies in cities.
Everybody knew this wasn’t going to last anyway. We are just amazing at pretending it.
Distributed, decentralized all the way, it’s the only way to be sure. We should replicate the processes which governs Gaia or face extinction. Trying to reboot BAU might be dealt with by hurling a comet or two down our collective greedy throats.
Centralized leviathans always eventually fail.
The government is not closing schools but that may not matter as parents are removing students anyway.
The current numbers, speed of doubling and trajectory of the case curve indicates that it will be a total disaster here in 1 to 2 months.
Probably, there are 10 times the number of actual infected out in the community, and each one of them can infect around 50 people before they become sick and are diagnosed with the virus.
If current reported cases in Australia stand are 452, then there are around 4500 actual cases. If each carrier can infect 50 people before they’re taken off the street. So there are more than enough carriers to spread the virus already.
Let’s do the maths. The doubling rate is about 3 days.
452 cases x 2 every 3 days for 30 days is 462,000. if the doubling rate was slowed to 7 days you would still get to 500,000 cases by the end of May.
Remember, these are for diagnosed cases only. The actual number of infected would be around 10 times that.
There are 93,000 hospital beds in both the public and private sectors in Australia. 86% of which are occupied by patients overnight. I don’t know how man intensive care beds there are, but there can be more than a few thousand.
Gee, I hope I’m wrong. Tell me that Australia isn’t toast, that I made a mistake in the calculations, but that’s what the maths says.
*I don’t know how man intensive care beds there are, but there can be more than a few thousand, should be “can’t be more than a few thousand.
I believe your math is correct. The virus is unstoppable, and that has been obvious for a couple of months. All attempts to stop it are at best temporary palliatives, and at worst totally counterproductive. The great and good seem to be choosing the latter course, but making ventilators when people cannot buy bread does not seem a sensible strategy. There are times when the herd must let the weak perish that the strong can survive. Even lemmings know this.
Dr Tim Morgan made this comment on his blog
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/03/11/167-tests-and-correctives/#comments
“Helicopter money” is where we are, and that’s what we have to try to think our way through.
In the years before 2008, we used “credit adventurism” to try to sustain BAU. The result was that the credit (banking) system was put in the line of fire.
Then we used “monetary adventurism”, both to rescue the credit system and, as ever, in an effort to continue with BAU. That always threatened to put the monetary system in jeopardy, just as we had previously put the credit system at extreme risk.
BAU is over. The implications are that (a) we take on the risk of hyperinflation, and/or (b) the credit system collapses.
My ‘scoping’ study suggests that the economy survives (but in a much-battered state), but that the financial system collapses.
Even on the basis of reported GDP (which many of us know is a false measure anyway), the financial system is roughly 5x the size of the economy. Much of the financial system consists of ‘promises of futurity’ (i.e. A promises to pay B the sum of X, at date Y). The promises cannot be honoured, and probably never could have been, but this crisis puts an end to “extend and pretend”. The leverage in the finance/economy equation is lethal.
My ‘scoping’ study suggests that the economy survives (but in a much-battered state), but that the financial system collapses.
I sit here shaking my head as I read that statement.
Tim ‘Clueless’ Morgan or Tim ‘Delusional’ Morgan
Take your pick.
Somebody should send Dr. Tim a big dome made of thousands of Leonardo sticks and tell him to ask SEEDS to work out how much of it is going to remain standing when one of the sticks is removed.
This is a link to a You Tube video with Nate Hagens, done on March 16.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt5dsD1z1R4
One of the things he says is that he sees at least an 8% to 10% drop in in GDP this year, and a slow recovery. The drop could be as much as the 30% in the Great Depression in his view. This would over more than one year though.
He talks about the Central Banks being out of bullets. I din’t get to the end of the video yet.
I am afraid Nate is too optimistic. The Post Carbon Institute is of course trying to sell resilience and happily ever after.
Yup, it’s going to be bad. As Graham Hancock stated: We are a species with amnesia. Spanish flu, anyone?
If we recover it could buy a few years extra before resource constraints hits BAU.
Zen quote of the day: If sh1t happens, is it really sh1t?
Nate has a disease known as ‘normalcy bias’…..
8-10%!!!! (unless he means per month? or week?)
[I took the gif out. Commenters had a chance to see this one for a while. Commenters have complained about gifs in general, so we haven’t had many of them recently. – Gail ]
From Jon Rappoport:
Corona Bologna Italy: The Truth begins to leak out
The government of Italy, as everyone knows, has locked down the whole country of 60 million people. So how many Italians have died from COV? Even by the standards of the useless and misleading diagnostic tests?
Ready?
As far as the Italian Higher Institute of Health knows, at this point:
Maybe two.
Maybe.
Try to wrap your mind around that.
Good luck.
Seems the president of the Italian Higher Institute has some smarts. He understands that people who already have other serious health conditions, which have nothing to do with COV, can and do die from those other conditions, regardless of the fact that they’ve tested positive (on useless tests) for COV. He gets it. I predict a great future for him. If he keeps shooting his mouth off, he might find himself working as a weed puller in a forest. Or he might suddenly be diagnosed with the virus and find himself in isolation…..
https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03/17/corona-bologna-the-truth-begins-to-leak-out/
https://youtu.be/p3IlVzMVuTE
https://twitter.com/i/status/1239563296681975812
But thats what has been said all the time? Corona kills people with current illness and in general old and weak.
Maybe shouldn’t talk about deaths, but shortened life spans?
What would be expected remaining life spans for those dead if not corona? Average 2 years with a cluster around “less than two months “?
A key point seems to be summed up in the word comorbidity—two or more disorders or illnesses occurring in the same person. Coronavirus may be like the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back for people who already suffer from serious underlying conditions.Like the cheetah who picks off the older and sicker wildebeest/ Or the hurricane that takes out trees that were getting too big or too weak to support themselves.
I’m not saying it isn’t a nasty virus. I’m not saying it’s no worse than the flu. But perhaps it isn’t quite the superbug that it is being made out to be. Perhaps its destructive power is being exaggerated by people with ulterior motives?
There hasn’t been a lot of data available on those who have died in connection to the outbreak, but the picture became somewhat clearer on Friday March 13th as health authorities released a new set of data.
“The data on mortality are deepening with the medical records of the deceased,” said president of Italy’s Higher Health Institute (Istituto Superiore di Sanità, or ISS), Silvio Brusaferro, as he presented the new data on Friday.
The picture is very similar to that given by the previous set of statistics released on March 5: the median age of the deceased is 80, the majority of victims are male, and they had an average of 2.7 pre-existing health conditions.
Almost all patients were already suffering from serious health problems, including cancer, when the coronavirus infection was detected, according to the new data from the ISS.
Two of those who died had no pre-existing health conditions, the data showed.
“Patients who died with coronavirus have an average age of over 80 years, 80.3. The peak of mortality is in the 80-89 year age range. Lethality, ie the number of deaths among the sick, is higher among those over 80,” stated.
On March 5, the average given age of the deceased was slightly higher at 81 years old, but the overall picture remains very similar.
Brusaferro stated that two patients under the age of 40 had died. Both were aged 39.
One had a tumour and died in hospital, while the other died at home and “had some comorbid factors including diabetes, obesity and other types of ailments that characterized his life before becoming infected,” said Brusaferro.
https://www.thelocal.it/20200311/coronavirus-what-do-we-know-about-the-victims-in-italy
The thing is … on the Diamond Princess… as far as I know … 700+ of 3000 passengers came down with Wuhan…. I cannot recall a cruise ship experiencing such high rates of contagion for any virus in the past…
My theory remains that this virus was introduced in anticipation of the collapse of civilization due to the end of cheap energy…. that the CBs had reached the pushing on a string phase….
They dumped the virus on us to create panic and fear… to stop the protests against The End of More that were building across the world — that surely would have ended in total chaos (because there was no way to deliver MORE)….
And now — as I have pointed out in that lengthy post (currently on hold) … they will likely lock us completely down and send us home to be with our families before we die.
So the severity of the Wuhan Virus is neither here nor there …. my take is that it is a tool… and the MSM controls the narrative with respect to this tool (the Elders and their minions of course direct the MSM) …
Perhaps it’s like this …. we are the sheeple … or cows (Goyim = cows no???) … we have provided the Elders with our labour and our milk and meat… and they have kept us fed…
But they can no longer care for us…. so they wait till we are calm and unaware…. and put a bullet in the back of the heads.
Fast Eddy is back 😮
Could be a small little “prune” to rearrange the priorities of mankind? A first warning with 10% of world pop gone within half a year. If the situation does not improve – the second will be on target.
i was wondering why my book sales jumped from 1 a week to 1 million a week
nothing like a good protest against something to rocket sales figures
i shall invite all present doomsters to the movie premiere
….dayum, i forgot all international travel is on hold at the mo
Eddie, the idea of the elites–the Elders manufacturing a pandemic is a little dark.
Yes, it’s true that they admit that they are socoipaths. They have produced and promoted studies that show that they possess more sociopathic traits than all other groups. In light of all they have said about themselves being loco, I think only a few of them are full-blown psychopaths. Only psychopaths would use biological warfare.
I liken bio-warefare to the psychopathic act of setting fires, BUT at close range. At close range, the person setting the fire risks getting engulfed in the flames he or she have started. Setting large fires at close range is impulsive and reckless to the point of self-destruction. One thing the Elders aren’t is self-destructive. They are good at not destroying themselves.
There has been some discussion of bio-warfare since at least, 9/11 but no examples of it ever being deployed. There is too much of a risk of biological weapons turning against their creators. Humans simply don’t have complete control over microbes. Microbes have never been tamed. If there is a kind and gentle form of polio, I’d like to know about it. If there is an obedient version of malaria that only makes a specific group of people sick, I’d like to see it in action.
Perhaps they do the inevitable? If continuing the energy economy situation in BAU is impossible, sociopaths or not, then what? Release the kraken onto the man-of-war.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9d/Colossal_octopus_by_Pierre_Denys_de_Montfort.jpg/220px-Colossal_octopus_by_Pierre_Denys_de_Montfort.jpg
fun with numbers:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Netherlands 43 deaths and 2 recovered = 95% death rate…
I assume these are their official numbers…
Yes, these are official numbers.
I’m going to repeat myself again, and quite possibly not for the last time as I believe throwing numbers around like 95% doesn’t help anybody get a clear view.
The Netherlands is NOT testing at all, except for cases where show strong symptoms with people AND are older than 70 OR have with chronic disease.
This means the number of affected (and not tested) people is likely (well, for sure actually) much higher than the number of diagnosed cases.
Just to throw your statistics off slight: a man in my town (I am in The Netherlands right now, away from my wife who is in lock down in France with my two kids and dog) was tested positive, is at home, has high fever but is NOT going to die. He has not yet recovered and will not be tested as such anymore. Including him in your stats as recovered would bring down your death rate already quite significantly.
I know people are scared, but again, throwing numbers like these around doesn’t make a lot of sense IMO.
Am I missing something?
cheers
“Am I missing something?”
No, a lot of people talking about death rate should start thinking before they speak.
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-report-us-uk-strategies-e45bc5d4-d2f1-40e2-825e-429b2b7c1b50.html
USA and UK:
“What they found: The report states the effectiveness of “mitigation,” which includes isolating only the sick and those linked to them while advocating social distancing for at-risk groups, is limited. It instead recommends “suppression,” a much more wide-ranging tactic to curb coronavirus’ spread.”
“Worth noting: While China and South Korea have managed to suppress the outbreak using similarly draconian strategies, the report admits that it’s not yet clear if suppression’s successes can last in the long-term.”
“suppression” also causes economic damage…
and its success may not last in the long-term…
are there no good choices?
Working except when a person is really ill may be the only choice.
The health care sector just does as well as it can, under the circumstances.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-doctor-says-lung-scans-for-young-patients-were-nothing-short-of-terrifying/
“… an increasing number of people between the ages of 30 and 50 have presented with severe symptoms, despite having “blank medical records” that show no underlying conditions that would make them high-risk…”
this is Belgium… statistically significant or not?
hard to say…
wasn’t there a story about how secondary bacterial infections cause the lung damage?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/mnuchin-says-trump-administration-is-looking-to-get-cash-to-americans-immediately.html
only about $1 trillion…
“The White House is seeking a stimulus package worth anywhere from $850 billion to more than $1 trillion as the Trump administration looks to battle the economic impact from the coronavirus pandemic.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told GOP senators that unemployment could reach 20% if Congress doesn’t enact the stimulus package, according to a source.”
probably 20% even with this package…
“Potentially $250 billion of the package could go toward making direct payments to Americans…”
helicopter money!
“Americans need cash now,” Mnuchin said during a White House press briefing on the administration’s latest efforts to combat the disease. “I mean now in the next two weeks.”
we need cash and we need it now… 😉
Looking at this article, I found a different CNBC article that has another interview with Michael Osterholm, the researcher from Minnesota. The interview is only 4 minutes long.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-us-must-confront-how-were-going-to-live-with-it-expert-says.html
How do we live with the disease? We are suppressing cases, but as soon as we let up, we are back to having more cases. We are in this for the long haul. We need to understand what this does to the economy as well.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/uaw-detroit-automakers-negotiate-rotating-partial-shutdowns-of-us-plants.html
“America’s automotive manufacturing will not come to a standstill as the coronavirus spreads throughout the country.”
a workaround to keep up minimal production of autos…
Production of autos to sell to who exactly?
The control tower at Midway has been closed after some technicians tested positive for the coronavirus. Who’s taking bets on what vital facility is closed next? Power plant? Water treatment plant?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/faa-says-tower-at-chicagos-midway-airport-is-closed-after-several-air-traffic-controllers-test-positive-for-covid-19.html
“The airport remains open thanks to back-up facilities but is operating at a reduced pace.”
so this vital facility is still operational…
that’s what we may soon be hearing often…
even as non critical operations, like schools libraries restaurants bars etc, are closed due to the virus, vital facilities will continue, by a workaround like this story, or even by staffing them with (younger healthy) people who will just have to risk getting sick and even risk a long shot of dying…
I’m hoping there are lots of tough men and women out there who will be brave enough to work on…
You say that today, but that’s today. Who guessed Republicans would be supporting direct cash payments last week?
You mean nuclear power plant? Who will monitor the cooling of spent fuel pools, for example?
Whoa… am I missing something or am I in Twilight Zone? I am by the way -47 years old
Oil Plunges To 17 Year Low As One Bank Predicts Negative Prices
(excerpts : )
Late on Tuesday, WTI plunged as low as $26.20 taking out the lows from the 2015/2016 oil recession, and sending it to a level last seen when US president was George W. Bush, people were listening to Get Busy by Sean Paul and Dogville was one of the most popular movies: May 2003.
As Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie wrote, “the system strain creates a physical end, even though when COVID-19 will end is unknown, pushing our forecasts to shut-in economics. We now forecast 3m GSCI -25%.” As a result of price wars in oil and gas and uncertain policy responses in bulks and base metals, all a direct result of the sharp fall in demand resulting from the COVID-19 containment measures, Goldman has cut its 2Q Brent price target to just $20/bbl from $30/bbl.
But that was not the worst of it for what little is left of oil bulls.
Outdoing not only Goldman, but virtually every single bearish oil analyst in existence, Mizuho’s Paul Sankey not only estimated that Goldman is too optimistic by half, calculating a whopping 15MM b/d in oversupply currently, but that crude prices could go negative – yes, as in you would be paid to take delivery – as Saudi and Russian barrels enter the market.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-plunges-17-year-low-one-bank-predicts-negative-oil-prices
does this mean that I will be paid by the gas station to fill my tank? 😉
is that deflation or what?
I expect that we will see a lot of gas stations closing. They are not selling enough “stuff” in their gift shops. The overhead is too high.
petrol stations closing seem inevitable
high oil prices in past years created a ‘high oil price’ infrastructure
suddenly having low oil prices is like pulling the rug from under everyone
we are all dependent on high oil prices because they = high wages
if oil drops to $20/30 there won’t be enough profit n the system to keep it flowing.
If Saudi can’t make a profit, it will collapse and leave a vacuum in the middle east. Fools will rush in, thinking oil is still the key to infinite wealth. So the place will explode into war.
The same will happen to the US frackers. That system will collapse and destabilise the US economy because it can’t function without oil. Then America will go to war with itself, because they will deny the root cause of the problem.
I would like to point out the power of leverage and the devastation when the reverse occur. Do note that many things in life are “one way street”. It is easy on one way but very difficult or impossible the other way back. It is not reversible. In fast practically all the things are irreversible (chemical reactions, entropy, breaking of glass?) We humans are also programmed to be this way. You know the alphabets … ABCDEF… Can you try to say it backwards from ZYX … ? You simply cannot. Even if you have a piece of paper to write down, you are likely to write it backwards from ABCD and copy it down. Even if you try to write from right to left, you will make errors or find it very very hard to do it.
So, why so many people keep on harping that we are degrowth or even go back to the times of “Little House on the Prairie?” Can we go back to the days where the banks use pen and paper? We cannot. Absolutely cannot – because we don’t have the knowledge (old staff already dead) or the scale to do it. Scale as in trillions of transactions made possible by complex computers. We also don’t have the motivation to do it.
So, what has all these to do with leverage? Well, let me begin. Internet is filled with people who are aware or not aware. Some are fast and some are slow. If you know about this, please bear with me or you can skip this section.
I run a fund and I ask those in OFW to contribute $100. I have $100 and I get 9 people to contribute. So in total, I get $1000. With corruption, cronyism or whatever, I manage to get the banks to lever it 10x to $10,000. Maybe I tell the financial institution that I will have a returns of 5% on that loan. Some banks since 2008, can even lever up 60X. In a bull market, I have no problems. With the $10,000, I can easily make 5-10%. Let us say, I make a good 8% return. I have $10,800. I loaned $9000 from the bank and I return $450 (5%). I am left with $350. For each of the investor (total 9), I declared that I am giving returns of 10% which is really fantastic. Out of the $350, I returned $90 back to them. I get a net of $240. Everyone is happy and I am a hero in investment.
Now, the bank will take my loan and package out to other investors. They will sell my loan (either as a whole or chop up into 5 pieces, combine with other loans) to other investors. The bank that gave me the loan may actually using leverage. for some of their investments – i.e. the bank will say that they have this pile of “good loans” and use this as collateral to take another loan from BANK B and lever up 10X The loan is worth only $1m but they manage to get $10m. This daisy wheel thing can go on several rounds (called rehypothecation).
The following is just a gross simplification for easier understanding :
Let us say I hold 10,000 stocks at $1 each (total $10,000) In actual fact, my real money is only $1000 and technically, in the olden days pre complex financials, I cannot borrow that kind of money. So, when the stocks fall 5%, that is already a big loss for the bank who loaned me money. They may call me and ask me to top up my loan because the stocks have fallen 12% and my actual stock is now $8800. I need to put in $200 so that they loan is good as I borrowed $9000. I need to find money. Now $200 is a lot because my seed money is only $900 from investors. I have to “close down” if I cannot pay up. I just tell my investors “tough luck”.
Now, imagine that it fell 20%. I have only $8000. I borrowed $9000. I have to pony up $1000 which is basically the seed money that I have from my investors.
Now, imagine again if I lever up 49x. I get now $50,000. My seed money is only $1000. If the stock fell 4%, it is $48,000. I loaned $49,000 and now, all my seed money is entirely underwater. Total loss.
So, for the last 12 years after the financial crisis, with the Fed’s easy money and intervention, I make tons of money Investors happy, banks happy and I will lever up till my eye balls.
In comes the virus, pricks the bubble and stock market comes in -10% (example), I am screwed. Totally screwed. I will never be able to pay back the loan. My bank, who also use my loan to lever up on their investment will also be screwed and the chain goes all the way up. God knows how many level.
The Fed has no choice but to ensure that the stock market is always up and not down because of this issue. This is sort of a margin call with levered holdings. The banks will clean up the loans via many methods (please read this link on how a country can clean their “dirty bonds” : https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/03/17/gfc1-aid-vs-stimulus-were-replaying-2008-because-2008-worked-out-so-well/ – very informative)
So, right now, it is just impossible to unwind what has happened simply because it is just too complex. The underlying collateral (like mine) is just too worthless. I may have absconded, dead or whatever and the bank who loaned me the bank cannot get the $9,000 back. It will filter up and as one goes up, the amount gets bigger and bigger as each layer would lever up.
That is why even if the Feds gives lots of free money to the banks, they cannot do anything because they need to exchange their collateral for the money. The Feds say that on Friday, they will accept stock as collateral but the underlying value is still junk and with leverage, the amount will be astronomical.
That is just the stock market. I did not even touch on bonds yet and the size of the bonds can be 10-50 bigger than stocks.
I did not even touch on derivatives which which is might be 100 bigger than bonds.
So, as you can see, leverage is good on the way up but impossible to unwind on the way down. Write down the alphabets in reverse order and see how difficult it is.
I agree. Leverage is great on the way up, but a killer on the way down.
The other lesson we have learned is growth depends on economies of scale. But economies of scale disappear, when unknown viruses become a problem. The closer a business can stay to home (assuming people don’t travel the way they do now), the better off a business is, if spread of communicable diseases is an issue.
One last question how do you even begin to stop the spread of this virus once it takes hold in the most poorest and over populated countries.
extreme social distancing for the older/weaker/vulnerable people…
the younger/stronger/healthier ones should keep working and try to fight it off if/when they get it…
Natural selection.
easy answer: you don’t, not unless a vaccine is found.
I am afraid you are right. We need to be passing around ideas/hints for mitigation.
I understand ibuprofen is not to be used.
https://www.sciencealert.com/who-recommends-to-avoid-taking-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-symptoms
WHO Now Officially Recommends to Avoid Taking Ibuprofen For COVID-19 Symptoms
The article recommends paracetamol (also known as acetaminophen or Tylenol) instead.
A different article read suggested cold towels on the head, since that is what needs to be kept cold. The heat might help kill the virus in the lungs.
My father was a doctor, and whenever we complained of anything, his answer in all seriousness was: “put a cold cloth on it”.
It is probably not a bad idea.
This thing is not containable….
Try and contain it = You kill the Global Economy
Let it run its course = You kill the Global Economy
It’s the perfect trigger to collapse, to the point I find myself sometimes wondering if we’re just someone’s simulation on some random computer somewhere in the Universe 🙂
“It’s the perfect trigger to collapse…”
it doesn’t have to be perfect, just a “good enough” trigger…
is this pandemic enough to kill the global economy?
I doubt it…
leave it wounded and hobbling with a missing leg… ie down 50%?
if it seems to be not containable (until (far off?) vaccine or cure) then the economy will have to adjust downward as it is dealt with…
over 95% survive, so life, and the damaged economy, will go on…
“it doesn’t have to be perfect, just a “good enough” trigger…”
Exactly, why do you need all four horses, when one is enough?
it’s just not a strong enough horse…
Lol. Ok, so what is?
something like Ebola in the middle of Wuhan circa December 2019?
Ebola? Never saw it breaking supply chains, and shutting down whole countries.
we’ve never seen Ebola in a city of 11 million people either…
yes, breakdown of supply chains is scary…
Ebola breaking out in a city of 11 million is, atm, just science-fiction. Reality of what’s actually happening, is scary enough.
For a more nuanced issuwd
Read this article by Caitlin Johnstone jaundiced view of the political system reigning in America. She is really perceptibvd
Link?
Quite possibly… consider all the doomsday movies and television series…. maybe some Martian kid is tiring of playing ‘earth’ …. and binning us then downloading something else.
I sure hope the software has a painless exit for all of us. I am still hoping to receive my package of Fentanyl in the post…. my friend with cancer was taking that for pain … I thought to ask for half a dozen tabs…. but thought that might sound a bit uncaring…
I would never advise doing away with oneself while there’s a viable alternative, but if somebody is absolutely desperate, the Samaritans have failed them, and they want to depart by painlessly falling into a sleep so deep that they never wake up, valerian will do the trick without them having to resort to potentially dangerous artificial drugs.
Another absolutely painless way out is a nitrogen tent, or so I’ve been told. But anyone doing this should take care to post a big note on the outside of the tent warning potential rescuers so that they don’t succumb to lack of oxygen.
I expect Robert could clue us in on the Greek practice of using of hemlock and the Roman custom of slitting one’s wrists oneself in the bath, neither of which seem too painful.
There’s an interesting form of pathological altruism which seems to have been inculcated in a young friend of mine. I mentioned I was thinking of going out to the grocery store, although I have a very modest amount of dry beans, rice, and so forth. “But won’t that take food away from someone else who might need it?”
It struck me that the logical conclusion which must be reached by that sort of person would be to immediately commit suicide, since everything they consume could conceivably be put to “better purpose” by someone else.
You mean, Fast Eddy is still alive? How is this possible, I thought things would have collapsed by now, and taken him down.
Maybe the existence of Fast Eddy is proof against his assertions. Perhaps his existence proves collapse is a process, not an event.
it seems to be a long process…
or perhaps there is now a worldwide scenario to which we can now attach some reasonable amount of possibility that the process is rapidly nearing a conclusion of utter doom…
no such scenario existed in 2017 2018 2019, which could explain the mysterious personal disappearance…
but now the air is thick with the smell of doom…
Fast Eddy is a bit like King Arthur. He is supposed to return from Avalon or Valhalla or some secluded antipodean vale at the time of OFW’s darkest hour and greatest need.
Fellow doomsters, this is a sign. The end really is nigh.
https://placeshakers.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/end.jpg
Repent now! Avoid the doomsday rush!
King Arthur indeed rests in the Vale of Avalon, until his return:
“But now farewell. I am going a long way
With these thou seëst–if indeed I go
(For all my mind is clouded with a doubt)–
To the island-valley of Avilion;
Where falls not hail, or rain, or any snow,
Nor ever wind blows loudly; but it lies
Deep-meadowed, happy, fair with orchard lawns
And bowery hollows crowned with summer sea,
Where I will heal me of my grievous wound.”
Alfred Lord Tennyson, Idylls of the King.
FE is more akin to the Spanish flu, humble and meek at the first time around and then returns all guns blazing.
https://youtu.be/50jOfeVM6Hk
🤘
Yo, Doomers.. you’ve been waiting for this for some time…It’s here!
Swiss hospitals face collapse in 10 days
Reuters VideosMarch 17, 2020, 2:02 PM EDT
Government officials in Switzerland have Tuesday (March 17) issued a stark warning on the severity of the coronavirus in the country, saying its healthcare system could collapse by the end of the month days if new cases continue to spread at their current rate.
Swiss authorities estimated that 2,650 people had tested positive for the coronavirus and 19 people had died, while also predicting cases will likely soar in the weeks ahead.
Exact figures were now unavailable as the rapid rise had outstripped the state’s ability to record new cases in real time
The financial system is coming unglued. Feds are rolling out all the tricks used in 2007/2008 and a lot of the “experts” are saying that it will not work now. They laid out good reasons.
Many “experts” do not take into account leverage (borrowing money). I can borrow millions to buy properties, stocks, etc. If it goes up, it is OK but when it goes down, then I am gone. However, if my bank takes my borrowing, package it and sell to someone else and that the second person package it and sell again, it creates a massive chain that is more complicated then the complex supply chain from China. My collateral is fake but over a few people, it can become “real”. There is no unwind of this mess. too complex and we have no time.
Weather forecast – cloud with a chance of falling dimes, pennies, quarters and at some cases, Benjamins.
Bank failures coming soon. To those in USA, please have cash ready. That is still what you can use. Once bank holidays or stock market closes, I believe, we have no more than 1-2 weeks before Iteotwawki and what happens in USA will spread across the world in very short order.
Am I delusion? Not a single bit but a realist. Anyone who thinks that all will be well in summer does not realize that it is not the virus that kills, it is the financial meltdown that kills.
Malaysia is already in lockdown (though still can travel) and it is a great time to be with family.
Thank you, your observations are much appreciated and are actionable.
Dennis L.
Watching the latest news, seams like there fireing up the printing presses and starting the helicopters. But no party in Europe all the bars are closing.
I am afraid that you may be right,
I have a question, though. Couldn’t there be stock market closings before banks completely fail? Couldn’t there be a little longer gap than 1-3 weeks? Is that just wishful thinking on my part?
Already keeping extra cash at home. No more run on banks sorry you are unable to access your account at this time due To technical issues. Followed by you can only withdraw x amount from cash tills followed shortly afterwards. And this as already happened in the not to distant past.
Gail, I think no one can say what will happen next but I am laying out the facts and observations. I stand to be corrected.
1. In this age, news travel very fast. In the old days, if there is a war in the east, the west do not know and it is not impacted even up till 1960s. News filtered through slowly. I can easily get to read the events that happened at the other side of the globe within seconds. WhatsApp allows social level (not through newspapers) communication that is instantaneous.
*Implication – we have to consider the world as one large living organism. Same for the financial markets. It is not individual anymore. The larger you are, the more complex you are and the more failures it will happen. For those who are not sure what I am talking about. Please picture that you have a household appliance that is the fridge, toaster, washer, dryer, TV and many others in one large machine. If that machine spoilts (Which can happen because of too many complex parts), then you are left with nothing at all because that whole thing just do not work. However, if you have smaller parts like separate toaters, washers, fridge, etc, then you are more resilient and you are only merely “inconvenient” that you cannot toast your bread of dry your clothes.
2. Many authors have said that we will go for complexity to show our power over nature just to show that we are great. My father used to tell me that some of the things that I do is so complex and superflous that it is akin “taking off your pants to fart”. This describes certain things very well. Some technological wonders are nothing more than putting a lipstick on a complex technological pig.
* Same goes for complex financial products that they don’t even know. I have a relative who worked in a large financial institution. They bought a derivative company and decided to play with it but then it was so complex that they don’t even know how it works and what products is doing what. This newly acquired unit lots lot of money and thy still could not figure out where it lost money. When he told me that, it just merely confirms that derivatives is just too complex for humans.
** Implication – big one. If some one comes out with a fanciful product that is an overkill and does not really bring any benefit (maybe like Facebook) to the society as a whole but has a huge following like thousands of people are working on it or using it (marketers, advertisers, etc), then we are set up for failure because this complex system, when it goes away, then you leave a big hold behind. It is kind of leverage. Same goes for financial products – they are legions of PhDs in maths to do some complex stuff. The computer software and hardware companies are there to support it and thousands of people are working on it, it will be devastating to the society as a whole.
** There are just too many complex financial stuff outside that people don’t know or understand. It is the banks first, bonds first or stocks first, no one will know. It is just too interconnected worldwide and the law of unintended consequences always ring true in all languages fluently.
3. There is no new world order, no Georgia Guidestone prophesy, there is no group of elites have supernatural powers or great mental ability. There are no Rothchilds who are so powerful that they pull strings for all the things in the world. All of us are humans and we can make mistakes. We are not infallible. In fact, the elites are even dumber because of (a) constant family marriage (marriage among cousins to ensure that the money does not flow out (b) they lead a luxurious, exclusive life that they are totally detached from reality (c) they don’t need to use their brains or physical strength to survive (d) Over the last hundreds of years, they have been living this type of life. So, no, they are not smart at all. I have met with super rich people in my life. Ah boy, they are totally not smart at all.
So, Gail, to answer your questions, there are none. There is no precedent and no one can tell you which fails first. It is likely that all will fail at the same time.
Like a very old man who dies of old age – all the organs fail at once.
I stopped by the local organic veg shop today. I have not been for over a week because they changed to open at 4pm instead of 11am. And I am seldom in town in the afternoon…
I asked if these were winter hours and the manager said no, it’s because we have almost no business… normally they get a lot of tourist campers buying supplies for a week or more and that business has vapourized – both international and domestic
He also said that locals are not buying much because so many have lost their jobs in the last week or so … they also sell organic cooked Thai food and that business has also fallen off a cliff – people are not eating out — no munny.
This demonstrates how rapidly things can go downhill
I recall Norman’s The End of More – nobody will like downsizing…
And here we are — downsizing very fast… and I don’t think anybody is liking it much….
That’s why the CBs ride to the rescue with stimulus whenever a recession strikes… if you do not act fast then the ball unravels very quickly….
As CTG suggests, we are into the quick phase… and the CBs seem powerless to stop this.
No doubt Greta, the m ent ally challenged (ah what the hell the mentally re tar ded more-on)… is pleased with the state of affairs…bcuz she is just plain d u mb.
The elites are dumb, agree. But couldn’t they be dumb to the point as thinking a managed collapse now could work, at least for them?
I’m just guessing, of course, but I had a billion dollars (complete with a big well-furnished bunker) and was aware the economy was meant to collapse anyway soon… well why not give it a try? Desperate times call for desperate measures, even if they are totally futile.
but If i had
Excellent observation by your father, CTG.
Having cash won’t save you. The people hoarding toilet paper are closer to having the right idea.
A good mate of mine was mentioning that he was calling his ‘Colombian connection’ to order in a some supplies – before the pipeline shuts… very forward thinking given international flights are likely to be cancelled shortly.
Personally, this is a wonderful time not to be with my family: the thought of endless isolation with them, a dreadful bunch of neurotics, narcissists and depressives meets the definition of ‘Hell as other people’!
And even I am a bit strange, so they are no doubt just as relieved.
It would also be torture to see the mountains from the veranda, and be unable to enjoy them, due to the emergency Royal Decree which has locked-down the whole of Spain.
At least the British govt. will still let me go out and about and walk in the woods here, for the time being anyway.
Fed has suspended all collateral requirements. Banks can create and loan a thousand off a penny and not be bankrupt.
Stock buybacks are coming to bite them in the tail.
https://news.yahoo.com/airlines-begging-bailout-theyve-used-220145534.html
96% of airline profits over the last decade went to buying up their own stocks to juice the price – not raising wages or other investments,” Ocasio-Cortez wrote on Twitter. “If there is so much as a DIME of corporate bailout money in the next relief package, it should include a reinstated ban on stock buybacks.”
Even some Republicans came out against the idea of the government coming to the rescue of the battered airline industry.
“I do not believe in the bailouts for the companies, period … They are smart people and will figure it out,” Florida Sen. Rick Scott said.
Without the airline industry, the economy is in big trouble.
Countries (see philippines) are stopping all international flights. New Zealand and Australia require all tourists to self quarantine for 14 days on arrival – that effectively has ended their tourism industries.
Air NZ is still flying international routes. Surely their aircraft are flying virtually empty.
Unless the government pays their bills… then this cannot last for long…. they will terminate international flights. Even their domestic flights must be flying with few passengers… people are not in the mood to holiday.
Commercial air cargo transport booming. Ordered stuff from the US the other day. No probs.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-airlines-freight/air-freight-rates-skyrocket-amid-passenger-flight-cuts-chinese-factory-restarts-idUSKBN20Y062
“About half of the air cargo carried worldwide normally flies in the belly of passenger jets rather than in dedicated freighters. But deep flight cuts in response to the coronavirus outbreak have made the market more dependent on freight haulers.”
Its time to take those grounded Boeing 737MAX into operation. Rip out the seats and install an ejection seat and lifeboat for the pilots. Triple the salary. Problem solved.
Am I the only one with solutions around here?
I think this lack of capacity in passenger flights will likely be important around the world. I note that this article says, “The price is three times higher – at least – because there is just no capacity,” Elbaz said.
Higher price may bring more cargo-only flights, especially if people think this is a long-term situation. If it is a short term situation, it may not be worth the investment required.
from ClubOrlov commentary to Dmitry’s recent post “Panic”:
Here’s a short 10-minute video by a German Pulmanologist, Dr. Wolfgang
Wodarg, that suggests we take a closer look at what may just be
politicized panic.
https://youtu.be/p_AyuhbnPOI
Very interesting take on the situation. Heard quite a few people think it is over hyped time will tell.
People like this need to adjust to the facts, not the other way around. China shut down its entire economy, quarantined several provinces, even welded people shut in their homes, to stop this thing from overwhelming them.
Perhaps. But how do we “know” this? The Chinese people don’t exactly have free and unfettered access to the internet so they can show and tell the rest of us what’s really going on, do they?
What you’ve described may be the truth, or a partial truth, or a choreographed largely fictional depiction of what’s been going on. How can we westerners, who can’t even discern the truth behind nine-eleven or Sandy Hook, possibly judge whether what7s been coming out of Chinese media is fact or fiction?
Take the heroic dead doctor. Was that a true story or planted narrative with a crisis actor put out in order to get us all emotionally involved? I have no way of knowing for certain either way.
Because we can see from satellite images that pollution over China is largely gone, for starters.
https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vMSrJK9EAMwH9lJefPmI7w5-7MA=/0x0:720×545/1220×813/filters:focal(303×216:417×330):format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/66416934/china_trop_2020056.0.png
Just a few months ago at the Madrid Climate Summit they were saying that, as much as they’d like to, there’s no way they can lower their emissions, yet here we are.
Because we can see from satellite images that pollution over China is largely gone, for starters.
Just a few months ago in Madrid they were saying that, as much as they’d like to, there’s no way they can lower their emissions, yet here we are.
https://cnb.cx/38VhapX
Taking the satellite images as genuine—and I don’t have any reason to doubt them because I live downwind of China and the air from that direction has ben much cleaner this February and March than it has been for many years—that only “proves” that they’ve closed a lot of factories and are burning less coal. China may well have shut down its entire economy (or a considerable portion of it), quarantined several provinces, and even welded people shut in their homes; but we don’t know that they did this to to stop this thing from overwhelming them. They may have done it as a piece of street theater.
Why do that? There could be several reasons.
It has conveniently stopped the street demos and protests that were apparently rocking parts of the nation.
It has camouflaged the extent of the problem of unlivable air, water and food pollution that afflicts places like Wuhan.
It has also covered up the role played by the botched incineration of millions of cholera infected pigs in China last year and what noxious toxins that may have added to the already unbreathable air of Wuhan.
And it has concealed the possible adverse affects of 5G cellphone networks such as the brand new 10,000 antenna array that was turned on for the first time in Wuhan in November 2019.
Or the Chinese government could be working hand in glove with the DNC, the FED, Hollyweird, the Swamp, and the Globalists including the WHO, Bill Gates, Big Phama, , Old Uncle Tom Cobley and all in a fiendish conspir-acy to bring down our beloved POTUS and replace him with the Wicked Witch of Arkansas whose first acts will be to abolish tariffs on Chinese goods and pardon Harvey Weinstein.
This last one is a bit far-fetched, I grant you, but if you swallowed Stormy Daniels and Russia Collusion, you’ll probably be able to swallow this.
O…kay. That was wierd. Where are the aliens in all of this?
This is a reply to Tim Groves extraordinary claims – Until today, I check with many people, why is it that Hong Kong has so few cases (almost non existence) when it should be a lot due to (1) a lot of people from China (2) high density.
Yes I do agree that this test is just a binary Y/N test. You are infected or you are not. Perhaps, just perhaps that it might be orchestrated but then it was out of control when it comes to supply chain or economic implosion. Perhaps…..
I hear you Tim. That was why about 5 weeks ago I reached out to some friends who are traders working with factories in China.
They informed me of massive delays with factories at maybe 20% capacity. Updated about 2 weeks ago and little had changed… they are unable to fulfill orders. Not sure the current situation as I have not bothered to ask since we have more than enough other problems to end BAU.
We had the NASA pollution imagery as well… easily faked of course (given they faked the moon landing … recently watched that Apollo movie — the spacecraft looked like they were made of tin foil hahaha)
I am pretty sure China is not operating at anywhere near normal capacity because I do know that NZ lobsters are on sale because they have no way of getting them to China… and I do know that the carpet I ordered seems to have run into issues (the shop told me they were experiencing supply chain issues but had materials to make the one we ordered.. but since then I have sent a couple of more emails and have had no response…they were responding within hours previously).
So who knows. End of the day we definitely know that this is collapsing the global economy. Queenstown is DEAD. Businesses are shedding workers like crazy.
I bought a couple of hundred more rounds for the shotgun earlier. That I do know.
A coworker of mine is a naturalized Chinese…now a US citizen. His parents were locked down. The word from them , and I presume from personal contacts, informal word of mouth is that this thing attacks your lungs and you have two weeks to live as they fill with fluid and you suffocate. Even if you survive, your lungs are permanently damaged. Yes it could be a totalitarian/5g/control test or whatever, but the evidence indicates it is real.
I didn’t quite get the connection to Dmitry Orlov’s COVID-19 post. It can be reached at this link: http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19.html
Dmitry Orlov clearly thinks the response is badly overblown, as does the Pulmonologist, Dr, Wolfgang Wodarg.
I am not willing to go quite a far as Dr. Wodarg, with respect to the coronavirus being mostly a politicized exaggeration of an issue. I think China made a bad decision, going after it as aggressively as it did, and many other countries followed China’s lead.
China’s bad decision seems to have been made was partly made because of the difficulty it was having in general. The economy was not doing well. Auto sales had been down for two years. Smartphone sales were down. Wind and solar were proving difficult to integrate into the grid. Many industries, including recycling and mineral extraction were doing poorly, because of low fossil fuel/mineral prices.
China, with all of its problems, decided to follow a path that through which it could glorify itself with, aggressively trying to reduce its rate of finding new people to infect. This way China could look sort of good in the eyes of its people. Also, WHO scientists very much wanted countries to clamp down hard. But if individual countries cannot really eliminate the (worldwide) illness, what is the point?? The virus will just be back again, as soon as controls are lifted, or at most a few months later. There are also lots and lots of Chinese citizens who are likely to catch COVID-19, as soon at factories start operating again. And we can all see that China is having a very difficult time getting their exports going again.
How in the world could others make the same bad choice?
“How in the world could others make the same bad choice?”
because human beings are making the choices…
in retrospect, allowing the industrial workforce (starting in China) to continue its usual workweek would have been much better…
perhaps obvious, but (industrial) workers are generally younger and healthier than the older much more vulnerable age bracket…
complementing that, the workers would then have had to practice extreme social distancing with their older family members and friends…
all in retrospect…
the virus came out of a biolab in the middle of 11 million pop. Wuhan (thousands of wet markets in China, and the close-by Wuhan market is the source? not…) but the lab should have been remotely located… like in a desert…
bad choice…
the economic damage came from the shutdown policy in China…
bad choice…
Wait what?! You are saying this virus is not that big of a deal and it is just a political Sham?! I think I need more proof of that….
The burden of proof rests on the ones pushing the mainstream narrative.
“But if individual countries cannot really eliminate the (worldwide) illness, what is the point?? The virus will just be back again, as soon as controls are lifted, or at most a few months later.”
Exactly, what is the point? Once the virus was on the loose in too many locations around the world, and based on the nature of this virus’ ability to spread wildly, it can’t be contained anyway. All we’re doing in a sense is playing into the virus’ hands. The more we try to escape it, the more vulnerable we’ll become because of economic contraction and the worse it will get.
July-August, which is being floated by the White House as a probable time for the virus to slip away into that good night (good luck), is a two month period that economically seems far away. How the whole shebang isn’t going to devolve into anarchy/chaos long before is a mystery wrapped in a QE to the Moon tortilla.
“All we’re doing in a sense is playing into the virus’ hands.”
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=__HBBf_eDLM
The virus does not mind the heat. Manila is hot and humid and the virus is doing just fine thank you.
As of March 20 you will not be able to fly into our out of the Peens. That was announced yesterday.
Could all this be an attempt of controlled demolition by the finantial “elders” and their minions?
At least, I would say there’s much in this coronavirus story that smells… funny.
That’s quite a thought, JMS.
https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-this-present-window-of-opportunity-during-which-a-truly-peaceful-and-interdependent-david-rockefeller-60-46-20.jpg
D. R. was entering as an extra in a zombie movie when this picture was taken, right?
More in the same vein:
https://images.app.goo.gl/1maZr656ukzYbQWV6
I agree, he barely looks human…They Live is probably a documentary:
Quarantine doesn’t terminate any virus except BAU. To codvirus-19, the only answer is a vaccine, probably in a year or so. That means we must learn to cope with another virus, probably nastier than influenza,etc.
As for to the last strain of homo sapiens virus, HS-IC-01, alas there’s no vaccine.Any contact means contagion, as is shown negatively by the rare uncontacted tribes of the world.
I’ve seen this… and I am troubled by his assertions….
Why would the MSM hype this – are they too stupid to realize that if you destroy the economy you might get some eyeballs on your content however you kill all of your advertisers… And keep in mind, the MSM is owned by conglomerates with many different business lines … that are suffering because of the ‘hype’
MSM shares prices are falling long with the rest of the market… so this dude is going to have to give me an explanation as to why the MSM is committing suicide by hyping the Wuhan Plague…
And finally take a look at this guy’s haircut… he looks a bit like a burned out crack addict who puts on make-up and enters drag queen contests on weekends. I am highly suspicious of anyone who cuts their own hair. I believe that Mark Zuckerberg also cuts his own hair….
I’ve seen this… and I am troubled by his assertions….
Why would the MSM hype this – are they too stewpid to realize that if you destroy the economy you might get some eyeballs on your content however you kill all of your advertisers… And keep in mind, the MSM is owned by conglomerates with many different business lines … that are suffering because of the ‘hype’
MSM shares prices are falling long with the rest of the market… so this dude is going to have to give me an explanation as to why the MSM is committing suicide by hyping the Wuhan Plague…
And finally take a look at this guy’s haircut… he looks a bit like a burned out cr,ack addict who puts on make-up and enters drag queen contests on weekends.
Let’s just say that …. I am highly suspicious of anyone who cuts their own hair. I believe that Mark Zuckerberg also cuts his own hair….
Let’s go with the second version of the above when the censor reviews those comments.
Hei, I cut my own hair, but that just because i’m stingy (and because crew cut suits my style)
One other thing what can be worse than months of social isolation. To then having an high chance of the virus respreading or even worse mutating to an even worse strain then dying anyway. Wouldn’t eat drink and be merry for tomorrow we die be a better choice.
Since a large proportion of the population look like coming through this thing with just a mild sniffle, perhaps the best course of action is … Take our chances and let it rip?
https://youtu.be/GU0d8kpybVg
Letting it rip presents the possibility of fast mutation. We then have multiple strains going everywhere. It is not known if we build long term immunity. Also there is the possibility of an ADE issue.
I suspect the authorities have gamed both options and determined that both were likely to deliver the same result – collapse.
Let rip… I think about my main business… if say any one of 3 key people were to be hospitalized (I am not one of them — I could die and the business would prosper…) we’d have a huge problem.
Imagine if millions were to get sick or die in the US… many are not replaceable… keep in mind you cannot just swap in new people to most jobs … they need training…. and more keep getting sick. See Diamond Princess Disease Cruise – 25% infection rate
At least with the containment strategy there is a slight hope that the virus gets contained and burns out (as SARS did). Problem is this virus is now on the loose across the world… hard to see it just burning out.
But strange things do sometimes happen.
Dow just bounced off 20000 today. Lets watch it plunge right through that barrier until 17000. Any bets on how long to 15000?
Now this this is global there is no way it can be stopped ,mitigation policies will only delay and extend and at the same time completely destroy what’s left of the economy. In my mind we should just let it rip and take our chances life is a lottery none of us as a guarantee how long we live. Also no one dares raise the question of voluntary euthanasia for those who are old or with chronic health problems who would gladly accept euthanasia if they contracted the corona virus and became seriously ill helping save the suffering of many people. All we can do now is hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Many thx to Gail and all the regular posters on this site. Best of luck to all from long time reader.
I watched my Dad succumb to pneumonia, on and off a ventilator for a few days. It’s a grim business.
I think if I find myself on a trolley in a hospital corridor fighting for breath without any care available, id be asking for a quick end to it.
My condolences.
The unfortunate fact is that the ventilator option simply prolongs the suffering for an even more horrible end.
Without the treatment afforded by an advanced medical system, the end would be faster and less dreadful (quickly unconscious, heart attack, etc).
Much as ample fossil fuels, and above all oil, prolonged and expanded civilization until we can reach the point of a dead and poisoned planet and the deaths of so many billions.
Thanks for your thoughts. We live in a difficult time.
it ripped in 1918
that left 50 million dead—back then they put up with it and got on with their lives
now we know things can be done,….there would be a totally different reaction i think
Back then it was almost all local…..now everything is interconnected….Everybody depends on everybody….I see the Global Economy as a well-oiled machine….if a part breaks the whole machine shuts down!
I quite agree it is a big gamble if we let it rip. But if we allow the entire economy to collapse how many die then.
Fastrover, I agree with you. Destroying our healthcare system trying to treat terminally ill 80 and 90 yr old patients is foolish. They are all near death anyway. The comorbidity is amazing.
Government propaganda.
You sustain the elderly and sickly in a voluntary quarantine and supply them with food and other life necessities for free until a vaccine has been developed. Protective gear handouts for the rest of the pop who wants to visit or work with the risk groups.
Let the virus rip in the rest of the pop and hope it does not return new and “improved”.
It just saw a headline with Jim Bianco saying the markets might close. I didn’t read the article, but a thought just dawned on me: with the whole economy stopped and earnings across industries basically going to zero, to avoid have the markets crash 80%, they will close down the markets, they will say it’s temporary, and as the situation worsens, they will just never re-open…
This is would be a problem. What would pension plans do, if they want to make annuity payments? Just borrow money with the non-tradable stocks/bonds as collateral?
How would businesses raise money for a new mine, or a new factory? Sale of bonds and sale of shares of stock would be out. Presumably, the businesses would need to borrow from a bank that is not in very good shape either.
Start a new market/bank, allow the old one to sink.
The second paragraph is sort of a paradox as your hypothesis is without growth debt cannot be repaid, ECoE is too great, there is no debt that works anyway.
Pension plans depend on a society that is cohesive and accurate actuarial projections – hmm, seems those projections have been a bit off. It is the same all over, bossman wants certain numbers and instantly with a few tweaks, numbers are all okay.
First paragraph, non-tradable stocks/bonds. This is what we always do, stocks are only thinly tradable on the margin, liquidate the company and its value is much less unless one does a leveraged buyout which masks the true value for most cases.
All a bank does is provide liquidity, it borrows short and lends long which is the original thought behind CB’s as I understand it. Start a new bank, find good long customers, ride out the bumpy periods and all is well. Banks print money, it is for projects paying in the future, they give liquidity to the depositors and short term holders of bank notes, e. g. CD’s, etc. A series of depositers comes along with shorter horizons than the bank, as long as a new depositer replaces the old all is well, in crisis, there is the CB.
Dennis L.
“If you don’t sell you don’t lose money” ….
I agree with Jim, let’s just shut the whole lot then follow China’s lead and not allow any negative reporting about the Wuhan Plague — only positive stories going forward (I know the CCP doesn’t like it if anyone refers to this sickness as Wuhan… and that’s why it will be called the Wuhan Plague… one can only hope Xi dies from it… and btw — Stand with Hong Kong)….
Recall how the CCP said this would be done and dusted in March — and magically daily cases in China — a big country with lots and lots and lots of people — are down to single digits.
What great power Xi has ‘Virus – I command thee — END NOW!’ I am green with envy.
Here’s another out of left field theory…. Xi and his CCP gangster scum obviously want to take over the world… so they concoct this virus by all spitting in a coffee cup… mixing in some dung from a pig that was suffering from the pig virus…. they injected that vile slop into som Weegar political prisoners… and gave them coupons for free bowls of rat soup at the Woohan market…. and off to the races!
Then they sent their infected minions overseas to infect everyone else… and declared Mission Accomplished.
It was at that point that Xi ordered the virus to stop – but only in China.
The mastermind and his gangster thugs are drinking rice wine and snoring HIGH GRADE heroin…. and singing karaoke with nubile 18 years olds with CNN playing in the background.
The Sinister China Gangsters — must be stopped…. (Stand with Hong Kong)
https://youtu.be/4cwXifDaCjE
If We Burn – YOU Burn
https://impakter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/AP_19243498643002.jpg
Great imagination about the origin and motivation … reminds me of one your wonderfully graphic comments a few years ago about cage matches (I think Gail was supposed to provide the cages). Thank you for your acid-laced humor.
Thanks so much for sharing this important information.
All hail the King of Doom. The right honourable Fast Eddy will take the podium please. All kowtow to the King as he announces this important edict. You … YOU in the middle … bow lower!!!!
Fast Eddy approaches the rostrum…. the endless sea of acolytes (interspersed with fit groupies)… goes silent and heads go to the ground….
Rise fellow doomsters … I see that in recent weeks there are many more of you…. that is most EXCELLENT.
Fast Eddy unfurls a parchment… clears hit throat … and begins:
Today, is a great day…. for I have some delightful news…..
Today it has been confirmed – The End of the World Has Officially Arrived
Doing nothing = millions of deaths in the US and hospitals overwhelmed with serious wuhan cases
Suppressing = minimum 18 months + hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US and hospitals overwhelmed with cases.
Then of course, many countries are NOT suppressing (see 3rd world) so even if you eliminate the virus in the US, unless you completely lock down the country until the virus burns itself out globally, you get reinfected.
If this report is correct then, barring a miracle, our extinction is GUARANFXCKINTTEED!!! CBs cannot print their way out of this…. they can delay the end but definitely not 18 months… and even if they could, as pointed out, the virus would still be in many other countries and reinfect the US at some point.
Rejoice… celebrate… drink wine and whiskey and beer… shoot heroin… inhale crack smoke… blow a few doobies… fornicate… eat pizza and ice cream for breakfast… do whatever you feel like doing….
Because winter is COMING…. eternal winter…. along with the 4000+ plumes of death….
That will be all for today.
Fast Eddy turns and walks to the tour bus as the crowd thunders their approval… groupies pull hair and scrap with each other trying to get to the front of the queue…
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
https://s3.birthmoviesdeath.com/images/made/doctor_doom_1050_591_81_s_c1.jpg
Hi there MC FE, as Gail hinted on yours topic on previous page, I’ll post my addendum here: There could be yet another macabre twist in the story and that being infection of (domestic/farm/wildlife) animals in Northern hemi, which could again unexpectedly superboost the y/y reinfection puzzle as we go on.. (plus the food shortage angle of it).
Curiously this could land our way with delay, say 2-3rd season into the pandemics..
All HAIL the Greatness of Fast Eddy. We are not worthy, now stay awhile.
Yep, it did that when I tried to post the link as well. For some reason it only displays the top page of the .pdf
To read the full document from Imperial college (and you really should) try searching for: COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Hail the KING!
I thought that some imposter took over Fast Eddy. After this post, nope, Fast Eddy is the real one.
+++++++
yup, that must be the real one…
“Today it has been confirmed – The End of the World Has Officially Arrived”
wrong since I started commenting here in 2017…
“Because winter is COMING…. eternal winter…. along with the 4000+ plumes of death….”
and still getting it wrong…
though if we see even one plume of death, I might bestow a wee bit of credit on the dude…
pushback? sure, but Edddy, we know you can take it, and you can dish it out… 😉
Let me list down what may happen in the immediate future since the “experts” cannot see it coming (as their salaries are tied to them not seeing it).
1. The unintended consequences of bank holidays and stock market closure
2. The bond market revolt that may cause banks to lose a lot of money, cashflow problem and shutdown
3. Credit freezing (no letters of credits issued) + supply issue from China + outrageous demand spike = failed supply chain and food on table.
4. Job losses, ATMs shutdown
The virus is just a sideshow. Does not matter if it is a hoax, real or even from aliens
yes, all are very possible…
I don’t foresee #1, just because there would be those consequences…
2. everything depends on banks, so bond revolt or not, it’s gov/CBs jobs to keep the banks running…
3. very likely… many will suffer hunger, some will starve… that’s not the end of the world…
4. ATMs = banks like #2… job losses = #3…
yes, the virus is real but secondary…
Gail has been telling us since January that it’s the (over)reaction to the virus that matters…
The Philippines is leading the way – they closed their stock market yesterday. If the CBs cannot prop the markets up then the next best strategy is just close them down for a few months while we wait for the virus to abate. Then we can resume BAU (sarc 2 infinity)
Judging by his style and turns of phrase, Fast Eddy seems to be a fan of Lord Doomcock, a pop culture critic on YouTube. Or who knows, perhaps he *is* Lord Doomcock?
Lord Doomcock? Doesn’t he just talk about Star Wars? FE though is one of a kind. No one can match him when it comes to laying down the doom.
“Beware that, when fighting monsters, you yourself do not become a monster… for when you gaze long into the abyss. The Fast Eddy gazes also into you.”
— Author Unknown
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/43/5b/bc/435bbcf4104ee66e2b5e2349786e08c6.jpg
Wow? Quite the ego! Yawn……yeah you made it all happen
Eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow we die!
I LOVE IT. All hail Fast Eddy…and his groupies.
doomsters are exactly like coronavirus
they can’t survive without a suitable host
Norman with your End of More blog early 2010s, and then your book End of More in 2013, I would say you’re the virus. The virus that turns normal people into doomsters 😉
your personal virus is in the post
please open it when you are alone
but this is what real doom looks like, the ‘up yours’ sign delivered by a species smarter than we are:
(https://twitter.com/b8taFPS/status/1239863383354224641?s=09)
Interesting! If Italy had a large supply of a very cheap energy resource to exploit, it would have done better. China had coal to exploit; when prices did not rise high enough for an increase in extraction to continue, it ran into difficulty.
When oil was very cheap to import, Italy was like Japan. It could afford to import the oil. But once the oil price rose too much, it became too costly to import. Also, China with the cheap coal and willingness to use more advanced technology could underprice Italy on manufactured goods.
Yep, same reason why now ClubMed will be during early 2020s de-growth completely thrown under the bus in favor of CEE with cheaper and closer to source available energy base (made in times of plenty before “color revolution” meddling) and even that “cunning maneuver” for global capital would be short of breath soonish anyway for just postponed decay of few decades etc..
In short the system is grasping, running out of everything: solvent consumers, energy in affordable range snake, (no more) docile precariat in former cores (e.g. France) and so on..
yes, the fundamental problem has always been declining net (surplus) energy…
“the system is grasping” because of that, especially since 2008, and will be grasping through the 2020s de-growth…
Yes in Italia Energy very expensive. After second world war we tried ti have indipendent politics of Energy. But 7 sister not wanted and killed Enrico Mattei. Usa wanted we was indipendent. But english gov and British petrolium not .
Questione .Do you think the world are going to iperinflction as Germania in 1923?
Hyperinflation? Maybe. They will print and print, so people seem to have funds to buy. There won’t be much of the necessities to buy. If trading between countries stops, money from one country won’t really be good in another country. This would seem to feed into hyperinflation.
Thank u
On this print and print issue, according to this morning’s newspaper, the japanese Government is considering giving every adult 12,000 yen (a bit less than US$120) and telling them to go shopping with it. Happy days are here again!
Italy cannot “print and print” currency. First they would have to leave the Eurozone and become like Britain, get back their Lira’ s. All Euro nations will have to abandon the common currency to permit them to take aggressive action. I fear the eurozone is cactus.
at a workshop in Sicily in 2013, i noted a hint of British colonial attitude toward the Italian scientists. the Italian scientists were very polite, and were the gracious hosts, but the Brits in attendence tried to run the show and stuck together. an American colleague who was raised in Germany pointed it out to me. i guess there were some lingering post-WWII attitudes (victor-vanquished) among the academics in attendance, 50 years later.
Yes in Europa Always same. French and german fake Friends…truely Friends are only itali and spain
The Brits don’t really do gracious, except some among the upper class; and scientists, as I recall from student digs, can be a particularly socially inept bunch. The real gem was the physicist who spent his evening bending and pinging spaghetti across the kitchen…..
Italy has a fair amount of geothermal energy. they could probabaly exploit much more of it. use it to buy cheap oil, and store it for a higher-priced oil world.
Geothermal energy has issues as well. Works best near active volcanos. When these volcanos erupt, there can be a big problem. With energy prices are as low as they are today, it is difficult for any energy source to be profitable.