Ramping Up Renewables Can’t Provide Enough Heat Energy in Winter

We usually don’t think about the wonderful service fossil fuels provide in terms of being a store of heat energy for winter, the time when there is a greater need for heat energy. Figure 1 shows dramatically how, in the US, the residential usage of heating fuels spikes during the winter months.

Figure 1. US residential use of energy, based on EIA data. The category “Natural Gas, etc.” includes all fuels bought directly by households and burned. This is primarily natural gas, but also includes small amounts of propane and diesel burned as heating oil. Wood chips or other commercial wood purchased to be burned is also in this category.

Solar energy is most abundantly available in the May-June-July period, making it a poor candidate for fixing the problem of the need for winter heat.

Figure 2. California solar electricity production by month through June 30, 2022, based on EIA data. Amounts are for utility scale and small scale solar combined.

In some ways, the lack of availability of fuels for winter is a canary in the coal mine regarding future energy shortages. People have been concerned about oil shortages, but winter fuel shortages are, in many ways, just as bad. They can result in people “freezing in the dark.”

In this post, I will look at some of the issues involved.

[1] Batteries are suitable for fine-tuning the precise time during a 24-hour period solar electricity is used. They cannot be scaled up to store solar energy from summer to winter.

In today’s world, batteries can be used to delay the use of solar electricity for at most a few hours. In exceptional situations, perhaps the holding period can be increased to a few days.

California is known both for its high level of battery storage and its high level of renewables. These renewables include both solar and wind energy, plus smaller amounts of electricity generated in geothermal plants and electricity generated by burning biomass. The problem encountered is that the electricity generated by solar panels tends to start and end too early in the day, relative to when citizens want to use this electricity. After citizens return home after work, they would like to cook their dinners and use their air conditioning, leading to considerable demand after the sun sets.

Figure 3. Illustration by Inside Climate News showing the combination of resources utilized during July 9, 2022, which was a day of peak electricity consumption. Imports refer to electricity purchased from outside the State of California.

Figure 3 illustrates how batteries in combination with hydroelectric generation (hydro) are used to save electricity generation from early in the day for use in the evening hours. While battery use is suitable for fine tuning exactly when, during a 24-hour period, solar energy will be used, the quantity of batteries cannot be ramped up sufficiently to save electricity from summer to winter. The world would run out of battery-making materials, if nothing else.

[2] Ramping up hydro is not a solution to our problem of inadequate energy for heat in winter.

One problem is that, in long-industrialized economies, hydro capabilities were built out years ago.

Figure 4. Annual hydro generation based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

It is difficult to believe that much more buildout is available in these countries.

Another issue is that hydro tends to be quite variable from year to year, even over an area as large as the United States, as shown in Figure 4 above. When the variability is viewed over a smaller area, the year-to-year variability is even higher, as illustrated in Figure 5 below.

Figure 5. Monthly California hydroelectric generation through June 30, 2022, based on EIA data.

The pattern shown reflects peak generation in the spring, when the ice pack is melting. Low generation generally occurs during the winter, when the ice pack is frozen. Thus, hydro tends not be helpful for raising winter energy supplies. A similar pattern tends to happen in other temperate areas.

A third issue is that variability in hydro supply is already causing problems. Norway has recently reported that it may need to limit hydro exports in coming months because water reservoirs are low. Norway’s exports of electricity are used to help balance Europe’s wind and solar electricity. Thus, this issue may lead to yet another energy problem for Europe.

As another example, China reports a severe power crunch in its Sichuan Province, related to low rainfall and high temperatures. Fossil fuel generation is not available to fill the gap.

[3] Wind energy is not a greatly better than hydro and solar, in terms of variability and poor timing of supply.

For example, Europe experienced a power crunch in the third quarter of 2021 related to weak winds. Europe’s largest wind producers (Britain, Germany and France) produced only 14% of their rated capacity during this period, compared with an average of 20% to 26% in previous years. No one had planned for this kind of three-month shortfall.

In 2021, China experienced dry, windless weather, resulting in both its generation from wind and hydro being low. The country found it needed to use rolling blackouts to deal with the situation. This led to traffic lights failing and many families needing to eat candle-lit dinners.

Even viewed on a nationwide basis, US wind generation varies considerably from month to month.

Figure 6. Total US wind electricity generation through June 20, 2022, based on EIA data.

US total wind electricity generation tends to be highest in April or May. This can cause oversupply issues because hydro generation tends to be high about the same time. The demand for electricity tends to be low because of generally mild weather. The result is that even at today’s renewable levels, a wet, windy spring can lead to a situation in which the combination of hydro and wind electricity supply exceeds total local demand for electricity.

[4] As more wind and solar are added to the grid, the challenges and costs become increasingly great.

There are a huge number of technical problems associated with trying to add a large amount of wind and solar energy to the grid. Some of them are outlined in Figure 7.

Figure 7. Introductory slide from a presentation by power engineers shown in this YouTube Video.

One of the issues is torque distortion, especially related to wind energy.

Figure 8. Slide describing torque distortion issues from the same presentation to power engineers as Figure 7. YouTube Video.

There are also many other issues, including some outlined on this Drax website. Wind and solar provide no “inertia” to the system. This makes me wonder whether the grid could even function without a substantial amount of fossil fuel or nuclear generation providing sufficient inertia.

Furthermore, wind and solar tend to make voltage fluctuate, necessitating systems to absorb and discharge something called “reactive power.”

[5] The word “sustainable” has created unrealistic expectations with respect to intermittent wind and solar electricity.

A person in the wind turbine repair industry once told me, “Wind turbines run on a steady supply of replacement parts.” Individual parts may be made to last 20-years, or even longer, but there are so many parts that some are likely to need replacement long before that time. An article in Windpower Engineering says, “Turbine gearboxes are typically given a design life of 20 years, but few make it past the 10-year mark.”

There is also the problem of wind damage, especially in the case of a severe storm.

Figure 9. Hurricane-damaged solar panels in Puerto Rico. Source.

Furthermore, the operational lives for fossil fuel and nuclear generating plants are typically much longer than those for wind and solar. In the US, some nuclear plants have licenses to operate for 60 years. Efforts are underway to extend some licenses to 80 years.

With the short life spans for wind and solar, constant rebuilding of wind turbines and solar generation is necessary, using fossil fuels. Between the rebuilding issue and the need for fossil fuels to maintain the electric grid, the output of wind turbines and solar panels cannot be expected to last any longer than fossil fuel supply.

[6] Energy modeling has led to unrealistic expectations for wind and solar.

Energy models don’t take into account all of the many adjustments to the transmission system that are needed to support wind and solar, and the resulting added costs. Besides the direct cost of the extra transmission required, there is an ongoing need to inspect parts for signs of wear. Brush around the transmission lines also needs to be cut back. If adequate maintenance is not performed, transmission lines can cause fires. Burying transmission lines is sometimes an option, but doing so is expensive, both in energy use and cost.

Energy models also don’t take into account the way wind turbines and solar panels perform in “real life.” In particular, most researchers miss the point that electricity from solar panels cannot be expected to be very helpful for meeting our need for heat energy in winter. If we want to add more summer air conditioning, solar panels can “sort of” support this effort, especially if batteries are also added to help fine tune when, during the 24-hour day, the solar electricity will be utilized. Unfortunately, we don’t have any realistic way of saving the output of solar panels from summer to winter.

It seems to me that supporting air conditioning is a rather frivolous use for what seems to be a dwindling quantity of available energy supply. In my opinion, our first two priorities should be adequate food supply and preventing freezing in the dark in winter. Solar, especially, does nothing for these issues. Wind can be used to pump water for crops and animals. In fact, an ordinary windmill, built 100 years ago, can also be used to provide this type of service.

Because of the intermittency issue, especially the “summer to winter” intermittency issue, wind and solar are not truly replacements for electricity produced by fossil fuels or nuclear. The problem is that most of the current system needs to remain in place, in addition to the renewable energy system. When researchers make cost comparisons, they should be comparing the cost of the intermittent energy, including necessary batteries and grid enhancements with the cost of the fuel saved by operating these devices.

[7] Competitive pricing plans that enable the growth of wind and solar electricity are part of what is pushing a number of areas in the world toward a “freezing-in-the-dark” problem.

In the early days of electricity production, “utility pricing” was generally used. With this approach, vertical integration of electricity supply was encouraged. A utility would make long term contracts with a number of providers and would set prices for customers based on the expected long-term cost of electricity production and distribution. The utility would make certain that transmission lines were properly repaired and would add new generation as needed.

Energy prices of all kinds spiked in the late 1970s. Not long afterward, in an attempt to prevent high electricity prices from causing inflation, a shift in pricing arrangements started taking place. More competition was encouraged, with the new approach called competitive pricing. Vertically integrated groups were broken up. Wholesale electricity prices started varying by time of day, based on which providers were willing to sell their production at the lowest price, for that particular time period. This approach encouraged providers to neglect maintaining their power lines and stop adding more storage capacity. Any kind of overhead expense was discouraged.

In fact, under this arrangement, wind and solar were also given the privilege of “going first.” If too much energy in total was produced, negative rates could result for other providers. This approach was especially harmful for nuclear energy. Nuclear power plants found that their overall price structure was too low. They sometimes closed because of inadequate profitability. New investments in nuclear energy were discouraged, as was proper maintenance. This effect has been especially noticeable in Europe.

Figure 10. Nuclear, wind and solar electricity generated in Europe, based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The result is that about a third of the gain from wind and solar energy has been offset by the decline in nuclear electricity generation. Of course, nuclear is another low-carbon form of electricity. It is a great deal more reliable than wind or solar. It can even help prevent freezing in the dark because it is likely to be available in winter, when more electricity for heating is likely to be needed.

Another issue is that competitive pricing discouraged the building of adequate storage facilities for natural gas. Also, it tended to discourage purchasing natural gas under long term contracts. The thinking went, “Rather than building storage, why not wait until the natural gas is needed, and then purchase it at the market rate?”

Unfortunately, producing natural gas requires long-term investments. Companies producing natural gas operate wells that produce approximately equal amounts year-round. The same pattern of high winter-consumption of natural gas tends to occur almost simultaneously in many Northern Hemisphere areas with cold winters. If the system is going to work, customers need to be purchasing natural gas, year-round, and stowing it away for winter.

Natural gas production has been falling in Europe, as has coal production (not shown), necessitating more imports of replacement fuel, often natural gas.

Figure 11. Natural gas production in Europe, based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

With competitive rating and LNG ships seeming to sell natural gas on an “as needed” basis, there has been a tendency in Europe to overlook the need for long term contracts and additional storage to go with rising natural gas imports. Now, Europe is starting to discover the folly of this approach. Solar is close to worthless for providing electricity in winter; wind cannot be relied upon. It doesn’t ramp up nearly quickly enough, in any reasonable timeframe. The danger is that countries will risk having their citizens freeze in the dark because of inadequate natural gas import availability.

[8] The world is a very long way from producing enough wind and solar to solve its energy problems, especially its need for heat in winter.

The energy supply that the world uses includes much more than electricity. It contains oil and fuels burned directly, such as natural gas. The percentage share of this total energy supply that wind and solar output provides depends on how it is counted. The International Energy Agency treats wind and solar as if they only replace fuel, rather than replacing dispatchable electricity.

Figure 12 Wind and solar generation for a category called “Wind, Solar, etc.” by the IEA. Amounts are for 2020 for Germany, the UK, Australia, Norway, the United States, and Japan. For other groups shown in this chart, the amounts are calculated using 2019 data.

On this basis, the share of total energy provided by the Wind and Solar category is very low, only 2.2% for the world as a whole. Germany comes out highest of the groups analyzed, but even it is replacing only 6.0% of its total energy consumed. It is difficult to imagine how the land and water around Germany could tolerate wind turbines and solar panels being ramped up sufficiently to cover such a shortfall. Other parts of the world are even farther from replacing current energy supplies with wind and solar.

Clearly, we cannot expect wind and solar to ever be ramped up to meet our energy needs, even in combination with hydro.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,845 Responses to Ramping Up Renewables Can’t Provide Enough Heat Energy in Winter

  1. Fast Eddy says:

    Everything i s Fake (TM)


    Think about this… Biden says Covid is over – so why doesn’t the ‘journalist’ ask — Will you end the Federal Mandates? norm – any idea????? Anyone else in the Dunce House want to help me understand?


    • in vain–Gail tries to set up a fresh subject

      but no

      eddys covidrama must run and run

      covid hasn’t got me—am off for a few days now—

      • Fast Eddy says:

        renewable energy is fresh?

        Corona Insanity – it’s a thing now https://uncut.substack.com/p/cardiologist-brutally-confronted

        Mentally Ill Tranny Freak Hoo-ers
        https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/39462 (watch what happens at the end)

      • TIm Groves says:

        Norman, have you something to say about Gail’s post? Would you like to comment on any of her points, agree with them, disagree with them, expand on them emphasize them, clarify them, or remark on her prose sttyle?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Maybe norm can tell us again how the world needs cheap oil to allow BAU to continue…

          I am almost convinced… maybe if I read that one more time I’ll have total conviction.

          How did they know planes would hit the centre of NYC – before hand? https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/46587

          Then we had Utopia UK — PCR tests being used to drive up infections to convince people they needed a Dog Shit injection … how bizarre…

          Then of course the Virus Opening Ceremonies… how can that be interpreted as anything but a prediction of what was being planned for us.

          norm – your big chance — answer a few of the questions?

    • Rodster says:

      Of course it is!

      “FDA Covered Up CV19 Vax Biological Catastrophe – Dr. Peter McCullough”


      • the blame-e says:

        Trolls supporting trolls. “Fast Eddy” needs to be banned from all sites. Except he only shows up here. Ban “Fast Eddy or limit him his comments. Other sites do this. Free Speech and Freedom of Expression should be for everyone, not just the “Fast Eddys” of the world. “Fast Eddy” is the mob; the crazed rabble.

        • JesseJames says:

          blame-e….why don’t you go find a corner where you can cry since you have been triggered.

          • Rodster says:

            Flame-e can’t handle the truth so instead he pushes the Woketard censorship button.

            How many booster shots have you had so far, Flame-e?

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Exactly! Welcome on board. The ship leaves DelusiSTAN shortly

        • Tim Groves says:

          Other sites do this? Is that a fact? I wouldn’t know.

          Does that make them better than this site? Would this site be improved if it did this? My sincere feeling is that OFW already the best of all possible sites.

          Trolls supporting trolls, trolls attacking trolls, and trolls obsessed with what other trolls are doing or not doing—it’s all part of the fun.

          • the blame-e says:

            Try looking at The Saker site. You have to register there.

            Try YouTube. Same thing.

            Try Google. You have to register, and your comments are still banned and censored.

            The kind “hate speech” Fast Eddy engages in dooms comments. Just look at Michael Snyder’s site. “Southern California Surfer Dude is the only one talking.” And all he is doing is posting new. It’s like Fast Eddy’s “story book.”

            • CTG says:

              Like a clockwork computer program… one bot or computer program from The Matrix will emerge and asking for the banking of FE.

              Hey.. “the blame-e” your content is not good (YT and Google) and your English does not sound human. Please ask The Matrix to improve you.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Ya but we don’t look at that Saker site — we certainly do not register for the Saker site… we are on OFW … Fast Eddy is on OFW… so we (including me – as I am not FE) are on OFW…

              Cuz. Guess why.

              BTW SS does not limit comments either… we like SS … it’s nowhere near as good as OFW… it’s filled with DelusiSTANIS .. but there is minimal censorship…

              So good! https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/46603 It sucks to find out the hard way that you’ve f789ed yourself by injecting The Dog Shit… but it’s Dog Shit! someone said — no it’s not it’s Safe and Effective… ya but it’s Dog Shit… duh

            • Tim Groves says:

              I must say, and it pains me to say it, but the Saker himself is an anti-anti-vax totalitarian. He won’t hear a word against the jabs. He posted on specific post for discussing the issue, and he demonstrated a dystopian level of dogged denialism against anyone who attempted to introduce inconvenient facts. Quite an authoritarian, the Saker.

              I do appreciate the blog’s unabashedly pro-Putin perspective, and the range of material from Russia that is published there is invaluable, but it is not merely a finite world on that site but a tiny, narrow and tightly bounded one.

              Personally, I will not comment on any sites where the comments are so well controlled that the commentariat forms an Amen Corner of ditto heads, because there is no point. Dissent is simply not tolerated.

              I will read the Saker, Market Ticker, and the Archdruid, to name a few, but I won’t contribute to the discussion there because every little discussion goes on there.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            The trolls don’t appreciate that FE has to read thousands of Telegram posts … and curate them down to maybe 100… that’s a lot of drivel to get the diamonds…

            For instance FE had to see this … and now HE cannot unsee it… HE has a touch of PTSD after each curating session

            And no norm … FE has no idea where you can get ‘one of those’


            • Fred says:

              The Saker is a great site and I’ve learnt a lot there, really good comments too.

              You can say what you like in the comments as long as you’re not a dick about it. FE wouldn’t get away with his schtick.

              Like most non-doomer sites they don’t grok the peak resource thing though. I think they regard it as temporary.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Oh I see… energy is not a problem … I can see the appeal… few want that truth… they gravitate to purveyors of lies

        • Fast Eddy says:

          For as much as people want to talk about EVs, the marketplace isn’t mature enough and ready enough … at the level we would need to have mass movement,’ said Jack Hollis, executive vice president of sales at Toyota Motor North America.” https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/why-toyota-the-worlds-largest-automaker-isnt-all-in-on-evs.html

    • Adonis says:

      The question is , is their stupidity intentional or a natural feature of humanity?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Watch Freud… I suspect he also believed humans were barnyard animals (dangerous barnyard animals)

        Humans are MOREONS — they are also wicked vile animals — Jesus failed using soft love… as our ability to wage industrial war arrived — and we committed the most horrendous atrocities (this all started with the Crimean War — but WW1 really showed what the mad beast was capable of)…

        As Freud suggests — the control had to be dramatically increased — the very existence of the species was at stake if we were not reigned in….

        There is that + there is the fact that we cannot handle nor do we want the truth. Would you try to tell a re tard ed violent child the truth about much of anything that matters????

        All that would do is send him into a violent tantrum… and lead him into despair … imagine billions of fully grown re tar ded violent children – armed with the truth…

        F789 that. Nobody wants that. Fortunately saner minds took control of the situation and delivered us into a fairyland world called The Matrix.

        Humans are so easily controlled that they MUST be controlled (TM FE)


  2. Fast Eddy says:

    See the comments https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/a-modest-nuclear-proposal-operation

    That time President Bush died on live TV…
    To be replaced by a clone?? Or did he have a bloody twin brother too? 😆

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    “Excess deaths keep rising across EU” – The latest figures from July show 15% more deaths than normal https://unherd.com/thepost/excess-deaths-keep-rising-across-eu/

    “Dr. Paul Offit, one of the world’s most respected vaccine experts, is now officially an anti-vaxxer!” – Steve Kirsch welcomes him to the club, and wonders if he’ll be interested in the leaked Israeli vaccine safety data. https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/dr-paul-offit-one-of-the-worlds-most

  4. Jan says:

    Escalation in the Ukrainian war: provinces decide to become part of the Russian Federation. Putin starts mobilisation of Russian army.

    An article from March 2022 suggests that Putin will need to start a nuclear war, because NATO could easily overrun Russia by conventional means. A nuclear war could lead to 1 billion deaths.


    We have bigger problems than energy and vaccinations.

    • CTG says:

      ….NATO could easily overrun Russia by conventional means….

      I have serious doubt on this one…

      Do note that I don’t believe in “experts” anymore especially those from prestigious universities. Remember “safe and effective”?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Of course they couldn’t putin would launch nukes

      • Rodster says:

        No one has beat Russia yet. You think Putin wouldn’t launch Nukes? I and others say he would because if he doesn’t the Russian Warhawks and Neocons who thought Putin was way too soft and nice with Ukraine and the West will do it for him.

    • AlfredCairns says:

      “NATO could easily overrun Russia by conventional means”

      The only country in NATO with a serious army is the USA. Little of it is in Europe. It would take months to send it to Europe. The Russians will not be sitting on their butts while that is going on.

      FYI, only 15% of the Russian army is involved in Ukraine. Most of the infantry is from the Donbas republics, the Chechens and Wagner.

      Western weapons have proven that they are useless against Russian defenses. Over 90% of HIMARS rocket artillery is shot down. The much vaunted anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons do not work as they are supposed to. The Russian equivalent do work.

      The reason the USA does not want to supply F-16’s and M-1 Abrams tanks is that they would not last long in Ukraine. Ukraine wants more and more weapons because everything they get is quickly destroyed.

      • neil says:

        The biggest mistake ever made by any western power was to march on Moscow. The second biggest mistake ever made by any western power was to march on Moscow.

      • neil says:

        Only 15%? So he doesn’t want to win?

      • Student says:

        Thank you for this explanation.
        I just would like to add that for the Russians this is a defense for an existential threat and they had explained this many times.
        While for us (US + EU and others) it is just another attempt to destabilize a nation with big fossil fuels resources.
        My impression is that it will not end well, maybe for all, but surely not end well for us.

      • The situation certainly is not good, no matter how we look at it.

    • Fred says:

      “NATO easily overrun Russia”? Ho ho! Which Hollywood movie was that in?

      You must have been reading the delusional BS in the MSM.

  5. Lastcall says:

    You mention….’For example, Europe experienced a power crunch in the third quarter of 2021 related to weak winds. Europe’s largest wind producers (Britain, Germany and France) produced only 14% of their rated capacity…’

    Is there any other generation system that so falls so woefully short of its rated capacity?
    Hydro in the wrong place maybe, but we have so much ‘ geo-engineering expertise’ now, how can this be so bad?
    Seems there is a strong correlation with ‘the number of experts’;

    Experts have being running our medical systems, military mis-adventures, non-educational systems, town planning, food production, computer, political systems, monetary systems… etc etc.
    It all comes down to the idiot zombies amongst us (majority) handing power over to dis-interested experts.

    • The “experts” live in a world of models. The models leave out inconvenient issues, such as seasonality being a big part of variability. The experts are very interested in getting government grants to fund their next paper to be published. They need to have something to say that will support their funding. If the paper is narrowly enough defined, it will almost certainly be able to say something that the funders would like.

      Or, even if researchers are well-meaning and work without funding, there is the problem of follow-on researchers around the world using the methodology to “prove” whatever they want. EROEI is pretty awful this way. It is pretty much an apples to oranges comparison between fossil fuels and intermittent renewables. The calculation is not even the same for the two because the latter is based on a model of how they are expected to perform in the future. Boundaries are a big issue. Do you include batteries? Transmission lines?

      And then there is the issue of seasonality. I pointed out the summer-winter issue. There is also the “wet season-dry season” problem for hydro installed in the tropics. How much hydro is it really possible to count on year-round is probably the issue, rather than the total, which is almost all available only in the wet season? Also, how is it possible to run any kind of business, with such a terribly variable electricity supply?

      What does an EROEI of 10:1 or 3:1 or 2:1 really mean? Prof. Hall published his amounts, but these are “wellhead” numbers, first calculated for oil for the purpose of comparing the change in EROEI over time for oil extraction. In various places, he has talked about an EROEI of 10:1 being necessary for a modern society. Other places he seems to think that something like a 3:1 ratio is good enough for additions. Or other people make this assumption.

      Some researchers are waking up to the fact that any EROEI calculation really needs to be a “delivered EROEI calculation” because there are huge differences in delivery costs among energy types. Oil has the characteristic that it can be easily shipped and stored, using existing modes of transportation together with inexpensive, long-lived oil pipelines. Thus, energy costs after the wellhead are not huge. Unfortunately, for any other type of energy, energy costs after the initial production tend to be large, and vary by a huge amount depending upon whether the fuel is used locally or shipped a long distance. A person really needs a delivered EROEI calculation for each delivery location. A fuel may make sense if used locally, but not if shipped long distances. Natural gas and coal need delivered EROEIs, for specific locations.

      What value does intermittent electricity have? What does it even replace? This changes the calculation as well. If coal has an EROEI of 50, for example, should the output of solar panels and wind turbines, adjusted for the cost of batteries and transmission lines, be compared to this EROEI? Or perhaps it should be compared to the delivered cost of coal at the coal fired electricity plant.

      • CTG says:

        Intermittent electricity is the dumb.est sh!t that can happen. Oh year factories have to turn on/off/on/off due to power shortages..

        Only an “expert” would agree

        p.s. anyone who really works in a factory before will know what sh!t the “experts” are talking

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Let’s not forget Mentally Ill shop teachers with the Huge Bazoongas.

      norm… would you leave SSS for this?

      I wonder if Kayla Lemieux has a side business Out Back the School Dumpster? Who knows might be some freaky students into this ‘sort of thing’…

      I wonder if the School Board would also allow that sort of activity… nuthin wrong with having a hobby huh.

      Take us down down down into the vile gutter … and we’ll be begging for the Candied F.


  6. Jan says:

    My solar panel performance in winter:
    (European Alps, snow cleaned off the panels)

    nominal values: 200W per sqm

    direct sunshine: 70W per sqm
    diffuse light: 0.7W per sqm

    That equals to 0.36% of the nominal value.

    These are the values at the charging controller with the batteries not fully loaded.

    On a cloudy day in winter I harvest 0.7W x 8hours = 5,6Wh per sqm.

    I run super selected lamps with 0.6W. It is hard to charge a mobile phone or run a notebook with these values.

    For 100kms an electric car needs 14.000Wh. To carge that daily under difficult conditions a panel area of 2500sqm would be needed. If you calculate with a daily need of only 25kms for commuting it is still 625sqm or 12x the average apartment size here.

    The Greens want to expand solar farms as their electricity price is the cheapest.

    • Lastcall says:

      I have 12 x 300W panels and assorted inverters etc distributed over 3 small power systems; 1 system for lighting only (2 panels, 3 batteries), 1 system for fridge only (2 panels, 3 batteries), and a slightly larger system with 8 panels for ‘all other’.
      Fire for heat and some cooking in winter, gas for cooking in summer and all hot water. No wet-back yet; going on an extended road- trip around NZ instead.

      The lighting system just ticks long, even in winter, as all on 12v lights.

      The fridge system is moderated in winter so fridge is only on power for 6 hrs per day; but I have the back of the fridge ventilated (most of fridge is outside house-sheltered) so in winter not much power is needed as it gets below zero at night quite often, and the fridge has minimal exposure to the warm inside temperatures as only the door is inside.

      The ‘all other’ is the one that runs out of power. Laptops, phones, water pump, TV, washing machine, hair straighteners (not me) etc.
      So life is seasonal.
      Steampunk life is what I call it.

      I could upgrade it all but I have better things/other priorites now like my boat.
      Nothing comes close to the life we live in our mainstream house in town, but it is far more interesting.

      • Jan says:

        If you need a fridge you are probably in another climate!

        There are a lot of ways to improve generation in solar systems. In the moment we scale up solar generations we have to deal with less perfect conditions also. The above values are what I generate in winter. That is FAR from all published estimations.

        You cannot expect an average German or Austrian worker to install 3600W of solar panels. If you run lights on 12V there are some additional problems as the cables swallow voltage, for example I use 10mm2 cables for wiring. There is also need of expensive high quality LEDs.

        But even if you could overcome all problems your 3600W nominally would produce in winter for many, many days 100Wh per day only. That equalizes perhaps one hour of hair straightening or 4h on an efficient notebook or to load a high end smartphone once.

        For me there are no problems without electricity, for the kids it is harder. They want to feel like part of modern civilisation.

        The biggest loss is the loss of communication with friends and like-minded. Also internet provides quick access to much more information than books. To dive into details though books are better. Ah, and then there is online shopping.

        There is a way to use solar other than described usually. While most people think all used electricity has to be stored in batteries that is not the case. While a battery is always needed as a puffer you can use a sunny day in summer to render videos by using the surplus energy that can’t be stored. Or run power tools. It is hard though to predict when it will be possible, also the weather forecast is not always helpful. But it is better than nothing.

        Campers can load their devices also on the road. I am sure it would be possible to compensate the bad winter outcome with biogas from a little reactor in the garden but I havent tried that.

        I am convinced it would be possible to reduce the energy spent by at least 60% without huge losses of civilisation. But that would mean changes in convenience people are not willing to undergo. And huge financial losses as existing infrastructure would not be used anymore. Our friends are still driving 60kms for a quarter of butter. We are happy to have enough electricity to be able to read in the night.

        • Lastcall says:

          All good points for a normal house; this experiment is within a 120m2 ‘workshop’. Single main room, with bathroom seperate. So background lighting is real easy, the drier in winter is an old style rack which is on pulleys up into the high ceiling, and the key point is that the kids are all grown and gone.
          We live on a lot less direct use of energy than most people, but of course we depend entirely on massive background (the invisibles to most peole?) energy to be able to commute here, commute to jobs, have jobs etc etc.
          Its a crash early and watch the rest of the world crash too scenario; we haven’t dodged any bullets, just have taken a backrow seat.

        • Fred says:

          I’m a prepper too with off-grid solar, batteries, own water, food sources etc, but all I expect is that the descent will be slightly less bumpy. No expectations of surviving for a whole lot longer.

          Can’t beat the good old FF lifestyle. Enjoy it as long as we can.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            It might make for a rather nasty descent … if you deny the mob food and shelter… they are likely to see you as a villain — and there will be nobody to protect you from them…

            They have murdered many of the ‘haves’ in Sri Lanka already … and that place is not collapsed.

            A man with fire and food — will be an obvious target.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          the guy up the road and his wife — both old and pretty fat — have solar…

          not for long once the shit show kicks off hahaha!!! not for long…

          Say hello to the new king

    • I’m running this tablet from a deep-cycle battery, charged yesterday from a 30-watt solar panel, mounted temporarily atop this truck.
      Doing this points out some of the un-reality of the idea of “going green”, without fossil fuels — I get maybe a few $/year worth of grid power from it — Costco warranties their deep-cycle batteries for only 1 year, because deeply draining & re-charging a battery is much harder on it than the usual car-starting battery use (where they’re usually kept near full charge).
      I manage this partly because I’m in Fremont, CA (“silicon valley”), which has one of the mildest climates in the world (not some place like Gail T.’s Alanta, GA).

    • Thanks for explaining how badly the solar panels work in winter. Definitely won’t run people’s cars, with their own solar panels.

  7. CTG says:

    “Explosion” Rocks BP Refinery In Ohio


    Oh boy… another one?

    • the blame-e says:

      If they could just take out the BP refinery at Cherry Point. Biggest bunch of losers ever.

      • CTG says:

        “The blame-e” your English is not human, please get it changed if you want us (those who are aware) to believe you. Perhaps those who are sleeping or zombies (like those who still think C19 is serious and the vaccines are safe and effective) may believe what you write and who you are… but not us

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    China continues to build inhumane “quarantine camps” at a rapid pace throughout the country.

    This one is said to be located in Sichuan Province and can imprison up to 30,000 people.


    Real? Who knows?

  9. theedrich says:

    Excellent and precise exposition, Gail! Our “Petri-dish” inability and/or refusal to acknowledge the limits to growth and our way of life is dumbfounding. This is a more complicated version of the way all past civilizations have passed out of existence.

    • It is strange, I agree.

      If you like the post, give a link to some of your friends.

    • Fred says:

      Thermodynamic-based drivers to find energy and consume it are built into our cellular DNA. That’s why too much is never enough.

      Just the way we’re made, nobody’s fault and it’s why all civilisations end up the same way.

      It’s BAU baby! Still time to party!

  10. Adrian says:

    Hi Gail, Some time ago in Australia it was put forward that in this country we could strategically place wind and solar all around the Eastern Seaboard close to the Great Dividing Range. Enough energy would be generated to power demand, either via immediate transmission or via storage created by using energy to pump water to holding reservoirs at the top of the Range and then used when needed as hydro. A University had identified that more than enough energy production and storage capacity was potentially available at affordable construction costs. Interested in your thoughts.

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    Speechless… https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/47565

    Doooomie P’s… look here https://youtu.be/GH7cnmGHNxw?t=785

    Why don’t they chuck the creepy old beast into the flames? https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/47409

    So norm…bidet likes young boys! https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/47417

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    the matrix …

    As if — but it reinforces the WEF narrative https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/47555

    Immigrants in martha’s vineyard… desantis… does it not seem to all be theatre…

    Trump … he’s going to clean house if elected… just like last time right? And all the election fraud – nothing ever happen… and Hunter – nothing ever happens… remember Trump ran operation warp speed…

    Does anyone thing … everything is fake?

    William Casey, CIA Director 1981-1987 “We’ll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false.”

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    hahaha… so they took the iran govt site offline hahaha anyone think Anonymous is a a PR Team effort? https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/39778

    He believes in the Elders – and he is correct about all of this https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/47370

    Here be MORE-ON – take another Dog Shit Booster – MORE-ON hahaha https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/the-tale-of-the-doctor-with-the-broken/comments

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    Anti Muslim rule Iranians have now occupied multiple government buildings and are bringing down symbols and posters of the Supreme Leader.

    The uprising is getting serious now.

    Iranian regime have asked Arab thugs from Lebanon and Iraq to come help crush the rebellion.

    Sounds rather desperate stuff.


  15. Fast Eddy says:

    Feed us – doomie prepper!! https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/39769

    Now that’s what I’m talkin bout! Life won’t be long https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11205851/Shopper-50-jailed-life-Germany-shooting-dead-cashier-face-masks-dispute.html

    A substack writer manage to uncover Internal emails from the Canadian Health Officials showing they KNEW Ivermectin was an effective treatment and showed positive results in trials but continued to deny Canadians access to it. They even discussed FLCCC Alliance but noted the doctors were white and male—it’s disturbing to see that comment since it has no relevance on the subject.

    Eureka!!! https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc0e49a57-b1f5-41ca-8721-72982ce25670_203x200.png

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    Hmmm… but Bidet said covid was over… i saw the clip….

    Why doesn’t she just say he’s mentally ill – with dementia … and he has no clue what he is saying?


    • Rodster says:

      If they lied about Covid, you think they would tell the World he’s a senile old fart who’s posing as President of the USA?

  17. Fast Eddy says:

    Tesla Car Fire in CT Takes 42 Minutes & 25,000 Gallons of Water to Extinguish

    “A normal car fire usually requires no more than a single hose line,” according to Deputy Chief Eric Lorenz, the Incident Commander for the fire. “But we know from other Fire Departments’ experiences that large amounts of water are the only solution when compared to a traditional vehicle fire.” he continued.

    Full Story: https://www.stamfordfire.com/2022/09/15/fully-involved-tesla-car-fire-takes-42-minutes-to-extinguish/

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    Further re Indo … the vax is free – but when the kids get sick from the vax… the doctor visits are not free — go figure

  19. Mike Roberts says:

    Yes, it’s fairly obvious that renewables can’t substitute for fossil fuels in any way. It’s astounding that with only 2.2% of energy consumed being wind and solar, so-called environmentalists can continue to beat that drum. They want to continue with civilisation as it is and won’t contemplate any other way of living. Collapse is certain in the face of denial, unless someone can figure out how we deal with declining energy sources, even ignoring all of the environmental issues.

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    This just in from our tiny school in Indonesia …

    I don’t know what happened here all my students got sick with high fever. 8 of the kids had to see doctor and got medications … they were vomiting + the fever

    The thing is… they are all at least triple vaxxed… the govt forced this on them — apparently the govt is not pushing more booster — which indicates mission accomplished

    THE HORROR… The Horror … the horror…

  21. Fast Eddy says:

    If you torture a Beagle you can be arrested… but if…. https://www.rt.com/usa/538654-fauci-experiments-beagle-freedom-project/

    Wanna see California going totalitarian? https://rumble.com/v1kbv39-dr.-rake-confronts-the-california-medical-association.html

    WOW – massive queue for the Super Boosters in the UK! Hope you got yours early norm https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/47433

    “Unfortunately humanity doesn’t believe that evil exists, and boy does it exist. And you’d be horrified when you realize where they’re all located. And I’m not sure some people can handle that. But I think that ones that can are very ready, very ready. They’re done.” Clip: https://rumble.com/v1khoa3-i-felt-were-at-war-jim-breuer-tells-glenn-beck-his-comedy-special-was-to-wa.html

  22. Fast Eddy says:

    WOW x 1000 – what is this norm???? https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/46664

    We’ve got that + the missile hitting the pentagon… are they trying to unhinge us?

    Maybe next they admit no moon shots…

  23. I AM THE MOB says:

    Eventually, we’ll all have a “Carbon Allowance”.

    And everything you do will be judged via social credit. Everything you consume and companies you support.

    The social credit system will be just like “Uber”. You will be graded by everyone.

    This is why so many companies now offer “Customer feedback”. To condition you for being graded by everyone.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      while I have to give you a high grade for reading OFW, there is also a low grade for that comment.

      sorry, go eat your bugs.

      • Tim Groves says:

        I’m giving you a very high grade for this comment, but a low grade for having a handle reminiscent of a certain Welsh railway station, as this makes it difficult for those with dyslexia to read or for stutterers to pronounce. 🙂

    • Fast Eddy says:

      BAU Lite is impossible.

      • I AM THE MOB says:

        Once the OECD population comes down, mostly the US. We will then export excess FF to Europe to plug the gap left by Putin. Renewables are used to mask “energy” & “growth” declines.

        Until then. Sit back the enjoy the show!

        • CTG says:

          ……while I have to give you a high grade for reading OFW, there is also a low grade for that comment……

          haha…. I see a pattern here. When Gail publishes her post, the first few days, there will be a a few newbies with some interesting comments and then they disappear and another set of newbies will come in. Repeat.

          hello there Matrix….

          • Fast Eddy says:

            They are sent here to draw us into their matrix… but only norm bites hahahahaha

            • just like walking into the market square eddy

              theres a bloke there on a soapbox–ranting about nobody knows what–demanding the right to ‘free speech’ (no matter how unpleasant)—but unwilling to grant anyone else the same privilege.

              sure—there’s a few ‘believers’ standing round him, handing out flyers about how he’s the messiah, but those few are all there are.

              people listen for a few moments, in disbelief that anyone is capable of uttering such crap—then they move on, with better things to do.

              Thus OFW loses commenters who might have something worthwhile to offer.

              While the ‘messiah’ remains convinced that his word is all that matters.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              You’ve had endless opportunities to engage in free speech … the OFW soap box is yours…

              Shall I list The Questions – again… and you can address them one by one …

              You have a very receptive audience standing by.

              Or you gonna take a pass and go spend your time on another Pay Per Session with Super Snatch?

            • there goes the eddywit again–rising to the height of female genitalia.

              i was dissappointed eddy, i expected you on the same uk flight as the NZ pm for the funeral–stood at Heathrow arrivals with my ‘Fast Eddy ‘ bit of cardboard—no show

              and after i’d got a meeting fixed up with you me and sir David to discuss forthcoming eddywit documentary—-sir David wasnt very happy that you didn’t show up

          • CTG says:

            Ok. One more from The Matrix. There will be a newbie or two asking for FE to be banned. It is so predictable. Like clockwork or like a computer program in The Matrix.

        • the blame-e says:

          US population is not coming down; not with runaway illegal immigration being exponential.

  24. Hideaway says:

    Hi Gail and thanks for another excellent essay. I’ve been working on what is the real EROEI numbers over the last few weeks, instead of just taking the numbers in the literature as a given.

    The numbers are far, far worse than just about everyone expects for all the man made energy sources compared to to the natural sources of oil, gas and coal. The first part that staggered me was how poor the EROEI of nuclear really is, down around 2:1 at best.

    The methodology I’ve used is making dollar cost equivalent to energy input, as everything has energy in it, with more complex things having much greater embedded energy from the overall system, which never seems to be counted by people working out EROEI numbers. I’ve used a base wholesale price of $US60/Mwh as the background rate for ‘wholesale’ cost of energy. This number could be easily disputed depending on the energy type and location, but it’s what I’ve used as a basis.

    I was hoping I could get your thoughts on what the dollar cost of background energy is on average, so I could use those numbers instead. Basically it’s the background cost of energy in everything, so it includes the embedded energy not just in metal fabrication of a component, but covers the embedded energy of the designers, planners, builders etc..

    Despite different groups having vastly different numbers for this total background energy cost, one aspect of my early work is that overall it doesn’t really matter, as using a high number will make man-made energy sources seem reasonable, but the natural sources of energy become ridiculously high energy return, as in thousands of times energy input.

    Of course using dollar cost for background energy use, makes working out EROEI relatively easy, being the capital cost to build whichever energy source. IMHO the extreme high cost of something like Nuclear power is displaying the background energy cost to build it, which will vary in different countries as the background energy cost of the education of the workers comes into the equation.

    Any thoughts on this greatly appreciated and thanks for another great article..

    • I think that the way that we can tell whether a type of energy is providing surplus energy by whether that source is so inexpensive that it doesn’t need to be subsidized. In fact, citizens will be willing to buy the energy at a price far higher than the cost of production. The big margin can be taxed by governments. Those tax dollars are the primary way the benefit of the “surplus energy” can be spread to different part of the economy. We don’t really have much energy of this type today, I am afraid.

      I am not convinced that calculating EROEI is a very worthwhile endeavor.

      With nuclear generation, you have to realize that there is a huge difference in the cost of generation in today’s rich nation, compared to the early nuclear plants, and compared to even more recent ones in poor countries. This would no doubt make a difference in EROEI ratios, on any basis.

  25. Mirror on the wall says:

    This is new to me. European HGs made it through the ice age but they did not make it through the Mesolithic, and their genes are basically zero in modern populations. We are all familiar with the Neolithic and Bronze Age population transitions, but the Mesolithic replacement had escaped me until now.

    It seems that European hunter-gatherers were almost entirely replaced across the continent ~14,000 BP by a Near Eastern-related HG population, although no one yet knows from what ice age refugium. WHG and EHG are descended from the latter, Villabruna cluster.

    The earlier El Miron group survived in Iberia but suffered population collapse in the cold period of the Younger Dryas and went the same way by the end of the Mesolithic. (I am still a bit sketchy on it, but everyone else is too.)

    Severe population bottlenecks do happen, but humans are resilient.

    “Our modelling results illustrate that human populations have an inherent capacity for rapid growth, but it seems that in the past this was often checked by the constraints of the environment, especially for prehistoric hunter-gatherers during episodes of climate change.”

    > Palaeodemographic modelling supports a population bottleneck during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition in Iberia

    Demographic change lies at the core of debates on genetic inheritance and resilience to climate change of prehistoric hunter-gatherers. Here we analyze the radiocarbon record of Iberia to reconstruct long-term changes in population levels and test different models of demographic growth during the Last Glacial-Interglacial transition. Our best fitting demographic model is composed of three phases. First, we document a regime of exponential population increase during the Late Glacial warming period (c.16.6-12.9 kya). Second, we identify a phase of sustained population contraction and stagnation, beginning with the cold episode of the Younger Dryas and continuing through the first half of the Early Holocene (12.9-10.2 kya). Finally, we report a third phase of density-dependent logistic growth (10.2-8 kya), with rapid population increase followed by stabilization. Our results support a population bottleneck hypothesis during the Last Glacial-Interglacial transition, providing a demographic context to interpret major shifts of prehistoric genetic groups in south-west Europe.

    …. Regarding the genetic replacement, it should be stressed that the date of the shift previously estimated in aDNA studies, 14 kya, derived from the date of the last known member of the El Mirón group, in Germany, and the first known member of the Villabruna group, a sample from Italy19. The paleogenomic evidence does not necessarily imply that the transition between the two genetic groups happened suddenly and simultaneously across Europe, and therefore must be addressed on a regional basis. In as far as the Iberian Peninsula is concerned, recent aDNA studies point to a different degree of admixture between these two modeled genetic groups throughout the Late Glacial and Early Holocene, forming a cline between the Late Upper Palaeolithic and the end of the Mesolithic71.

    …. This pattern of population dynamics is in agreement with recent aDNA studies, suggesting that a major population turnover occurred in Europe at the end of the Late Glacial, but we can now also suggest that the timing of this process can be pushed slightly forward to encompass the Younger Dryas and the Early Holocene of the Iberian Peninsula and the rapid environmental changes that occurred. Our modelling results illustrate that human populations have an inherent capacity for rapid growth, but it seems that in the past this was often checked by the constraints of the environment, especially for prehistoric hunter-gatherers during episodes of climate change.


    See also: Paleolithic DNA from the Caucasus reveals core of West Eurasian ancestry


  26. I AM THE MOB says:


  27. Adonis says:

    In layman’s terms the world is running out of conventional oil or the ultimate estimated recoverable oil hubbert thought it was two trillion barrels but even then he thought it could be much less like one and a half trillion barrels he was very scared if that was the true figure according to my guesstimate we have consumed 1.4 trillion to 1.5 trillion barrels of the “ultimate” already if that is true then the Uep may be real or mad Max either the former or latter or both

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      and yet the world is still producing 4 BILLION gallons of oil per day.

      it might be down to 3 billion per day by 2030.

      que sera sera.

  28. maxinerogers says:

    We have diversified with a wood-heat sauna, a wood cook stove plus a propane stove and an electric stove in the summer kitchen. We have a hand pump on a shallow well. I don’t think any of these preparations will do more than soften a descent to pre-fossil fuel times.

    • You are probably correct.

    • Jan says:

      In Europe prices for firewood have more than doubled – also in forest areas. Lignite coal is not available. Even at this price there is a supply crunch. People cannot refill their winter stocks. Usually firewood is stored outdoors. Now people are afraid it could be stolen.

      We will see if people will go on to vote for people that caused these troubles. The monthly bill for energy jumped up to 2000 EURs, that is more than 100% of the household income for many people. There are assumptions that both the German and the Austrian government will not survive Christmas.

      For Germany the industry predicts a decline of 30% of the economy. There are voices saying that the majority of sulfur for agriculture comes from oil processing and that less oil will lead to a supply crunch of fertilizers and food.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I am delighted! It all points to Q4 – Crack – BOOM.

        If this is all true – and I’ve not seen anything indicating these energy bills are fake — then surely winter will usher in ….. UEP. There I said it UEP – Extinction

        Are you ready?

        • Jan says:

          The energy bills are not fake. Though they don’t correspond with the prices of oil per barrel. So the surplus trickles away somewhere into the new European energy market, probably into speculation. The energy providers announce huge surplusses but not all producers. I doubt that the money will be invested into exploration. I guess they feed the immobilia bubble.

        • Sam says:

          Wait! What ?? I thought I had till 2030??? I’ve been on cruise control!!!

  29. CTG says:

    The following article, by the same author was written in May.

    Germans ´schwedt´ hard for Russian oil

    Last week, the refineries are nationalized. I doubt, in common sense if someone took over your facility, would you allow oil to flow into the confiscated facility?

    Again, please read the whole article, including the comments. It feel it will be worth your time

    • theedrich says:

      This idea of fantasy-replacement of Russian oil in the town of Schwedt by mental obfuscation is the German equivalent of California psychics promising heaven on earth if you just cross their palms with lots of silver. Deutschland is not going to survive the coming winter by flapping its leaders’ mouths against Russland. It is going to collapse unless rationality somehow prevails and the fantasts in the Bundestag acknowledge that they have a choice: negotiate carefully and respectfully with Russia or cease existing.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Remember…it’s all theatre … they know this cannot happen… it’s make belief… to cover up peak cheap energy

  30. Rodster says:

    Well written article and explanation by CHS https://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept22/instability9-22.html

    “Peering Into the Crystal Ball, We See… Instability Leading to Collapse”

    Excerpt: We can only choose one: open, dynamic stability (evolution) or autocracy (instability and collapse).

    When the fundamentals of life change, every organism must evolve or die. This is equally true of human organizations, societies and economies.

    Evolution requires conserving what still works and experimenting until something comes along that works better. We call the fundamentals changing selective pressure and the process of experimenting with mutations / variations natural selection.

    • Cromagnon says:

      All the analysis is truly for naught.
      Within the next two decades the entirety of human civilization ( outside of few “DUMBs” and lucky small groups in geographically fortunate locations) will be hit first by a massive cosmic radiation burst which will remove all electronic infrastructure and kill most exposed mammals, followed by a furious planetary wide multiple impactors from the suns exploding dust shell, then as the dielectrics of the lithosphere reduce the viscosity of the upper mantle the earth will “ turn over” like a spinning top in zero g.
      We will lose 95% of humanity inside of a day.
      Forget civilization. Forget about society. Think about your immediate loved ones.
      The elites knew about this since the the moon landings confirmed the blast damage on the moon. Watch footage of the later Apollo landings,… the astronauts openly talk about it! It’s WHY we went there.
      The apocryphal texts documented “Gods” wrath 4000 years ago. He promised a cleansing fire this time and not a full deluge like the last.

      We are not living in base reality, we are in a much over written copy. The writings and evidence are there.
      This should be worldwide knowledge.
      It makes me concerned that perhaps “ most” humans alive today are not “ real” perhaps many, are not soul filled avatars questing to a solution to a species level threat ( or fulfilling a soul maturation process) but instead are truly just meat sacks… NPCs….. just filling space as background for the true soulful actors on this grand stage.
      All the cynicism and intelligent discourse will evaporate in a millisecond as plasma arc discharges crash into the planet when the solar hurricane smashes the earths weakened geomagnetic fields.

      Thunderbolts of the Gods are real.

      Be afraid of the sky!

      • Jason says:


      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        Zeus is real, he’s God.

        be afraid, be very afraid.

      • Pedro says:

        Hmmm, sounds a bit inconvenient,
        Still, we’ve survived a number of ‘end of the world’ claims
        in my lifetime, so another doesn’t bother me.

        • Cromagnon says:

          You have no idea how much I wish you were right.

          2012 was a neophyte interpretation of what the Mayans were trying to warn us about
          The correct date is 2046, and always was.
          But something else comes 6 years before that.
          Be in the Western Hemisphere then

          I. 2046 be underground at elevation ,… or tell your younger loved ones

          Underground but at elevation
          Or be resigned to leaving this level of reality.

          • Peter Jarvis says:

            Well, even if you are right, it will not be resignation but acceptance.
            2040 is 98 years after my birth so it doesn’t really matter to matter to me what happens then .
            I expect to ‘leave this reality’ before that date and due to some mundane reason.
            I didn’t bring any humans into this world,although it does make me sad when I see young children, knowing that they are not likely to experience a long and peaceful life, and one which is more likely to be affected by human activity rather than a major cosmic episode.
            PS As an ex prepper, I don’t like the chances on anyone coming out of their underground elevation and expecting to survive.

            • Cromagnon says:

              I actually agree with much of what you state.
              Humans as a species are remarkably tough. We have come through this phenomena many many times.
              I have children and I base my decisions on logic combined with what would be considered “ magic” by many.
              I came by the approach through desperation and the “impossible” way I managed to stay in this reality when so many wanted me out of it.
              I exist today based on my own personal prophetic vision of the future which is limited and unimportant to anyone but me and two boys. I see flashes of a very very hard timeline. One which seems like the landscape in the movie “The Road” but with very hard men clad in badly tanned leathers
              existing in a culture that seems a cross between Comanche culture of the late 1800s and the Neolithic tribal war cultures of ancient Europe.
              We will all leave this mortal plane at some point, but what seems to come down through the ages is that we return and how we return is based in part on our deep beliefs and intents in previous “ incarnations”.
              Do onto others as you would have them do onto you,……
              Lol, the simulation apparently ends in mid 22nd century….. maybe we all figure out the point then?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I read the book .. and watched the movie… I do not recall there being any spent fuel ponds…

              I guess McCarthy decided to ignore them….

              In my version of The Road … they wander around in that grim landscape… looking for children to kill and roast… trying to evade the Bad Guys… then they sicken and die of cancer. Everyone.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Ex prepper to Ex prepper — to those prepping …

              It’s futile. But if it makes anyone feel better and fends off despair… please continue…

              I am sure glad I gave that up though — otherwise I’d have not left Butt F789 Nowhere and spent the last 5 yrs in Queenstown not giving f789s about prepping.

  31. CTG says:

    Hello everyone…… it is great to be back.

    Continuing from my last post on the availability of storage gas in Europe, here is a must-read article.


    If you have time, please read through all the comments. 99% of the comments are very constructive and some of them are from people working in the oil and gas industry. I have read through all and understand probably “there is no gas” in Europe.

    • Adonis says:

      Welcome back CTG thanks for the article if Europe has no gas then it means things are about to get very interesting also a big thank you to Gail for producing another excellent article.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      thanks CTG, that’s a very excellent website.

      a part of one of the comments:

      “I am an engineer, and at one point worked in the nat gas industry. There are three principal means of gas storage. The dominant one in terms of capacity is underground storage. Gas is pumped into underground cavities—these are not huge caverns, as some imagine them, but typically volumes of porous rock left over after petroleum or saline extraction—under high pressure, often 200 bar (1 bar is atmospheric pressure). When gas is re-extracted from them, all but 1 bar of pressure can be recovered, leaving only 0.5% of gas, under atmospheric pressure, in the ground.”

      so they can pressurize the CH4 up to 200X.

      in another article, the data was that EU storage only supplies 20 to 25% of winter needs.

      without Russian daily flow, the EU probably will not have enough, though closing down all industry might allow residential heating to continue throughout the winter.

      we’ll see in the next 5 months.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        i wonder what would happen if one put a match into one of those storage caverns

      • Jan says:

        If you understand German I’d recommend this discussion:

        The leftist economist Oskar Lafontaine say there is no alternative for Germany to Russian oil and gas. He demands the government starts negotiations with Putin. The representatives of the industry both agree. The representative of the government says they are doing the best they can and Putin is raping girls in Ukraine.

        • Fred says:

          Putin is personally raping girls in Ukraine? He’s in his late sixties, so I wonder how many he can manage in a day?

          He’ll have to schedule that activity into his busy schedule, overseas trips etc.

          Anyway, as far as Russia is concerned the EU is “non-agreement capable” and can f— right off. No gas for you Fritz.

  32. Mirror on the wall says:

    Germany is getting serious about its energy needs. Putin had better watch out!

    • Or maybe Germany should watch out. Retaliation seems likely.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      and very fine Russian refineries they are!

    • theedrich says:

      Annalena Baerbock of the Greens, now Außernministerin (Foreign Minister), is Germany’s new Marie Antoinette: “Let them eat cake!” The problem with European leaders is that they still think they are kings, queens and emperors with the power of life and death over their “subjects” (*Untertanen* in German). Ordinary Germans are merely dirt to be crushed underfoot, in the opinion of these masters and mistresses of the nations they enslave.

  33. Slowly at first says:

    Too much waste: appliances left plugged in, lights on all night. Nevertheless even if we had intelligent sensors installed in everything to mitigate waste, we would be adding more complexity and hence increasing energy consumption.

    • Kenny Starfighter says:

      I have motion sensors on a lot of the lights in my house because it is convenient. But each sensor has a constant power draw of around 5 W. So if I only use LED lights, I might just leave the lights on constantly instead.

  34. Retired Librarian says:

    My California brother-in-law just called to say they’re getting solar. Of course. Thanks for another great article Gail.

    • Think of it this way: It helps keep the air conditioning going. Also, jobs are provided, such as installing solar. Also, installing solar helps keep the demand for fossil fuels to make and transport the fossil fuels up.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Could have wasted the money on taking a year off and skiing all the best mountains in Europe instead… or buying a fast car… whatever turns his crank … it’s all always wasted

  35. Nicholas Lewis says:

    Europes done pretty well in filling its gas storage as its been prepared to pay top dollar for cargoes and as a result Chinese have decided that they can’t afford it and just boosted coal production and generation instead.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      full EU gas storage equals only about 20 to 25 % of their winter needs.

      without Russian daily flow, they might have a shortage by early 2023.

      and EU paying top dollar is destroying many of their businesses.

      here’s the EU TTF standard natural gas price 5 year chart:


      notice anything about 2021/2022?

      200 euro price for natural gas is equivalent to $360 barrel of oil.

      what’s coming, recession or depression?

    • Withnail says:

      How are we paying ‘top dollar’ when our economy is collapsing due to lack of affordable gas? We’re just printing the money, are we?

      How are we going to get the gas back out of storage with insufficient pressure in the system?

      Are you sure all this stuff you’re reading about gas storage isn’t just misinformation directed at people who dont understand the details?

    • CTG says:

      Nicholas Lewis, what you wrote are self-contradictory… please getvthe algorithm changed .

  36. Fast Eddy says:


    Where this was done – deaths were driven higher – blamed on Covid — and that was leveraged in a massive PR Campaign — which was purposed to drive uptake of the ‘magic bullet’ vaccines.

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    Power Bills in the US are now exploding hahahaha Winter Coming… https://archive.ph/HtcvR UK https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/47221

    Gas bill up 7.5x in Italy hahaah we no pay https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/47022

    No pay the bill – ok? https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/39562

    Small businesses cannot function under these conditions. “Tom Kerridge, the celebrity chef, revealed that the annual energy bill at his pub has soared from £60,000 to £420,000 and warned that ‘ludicrous’ price rises left the hospitality sector facing a ‘terrifying landscape’,” reports Telegraph. https://brownstone.org/articles/a-world-on-fire/

    Q4 Boom? Are you trembling with anticipation??? JP Morgan CEO : ‘something worse than recession ‘ about to happen to American economy…

    I give you – the German Minister of the Economy – and Mental Illness https://twitter.com/tomdabassman/status/1567450786312949760

  38. Kenny Starfighter says:

    Gail your graphs are of for the wind and solar production during winter. Wind should be the same during winter, since the wind is heavier and there is a lot of it, and solar panels works best when it is cold, so from this it looks like it will only be down to 60% in winter


  39. Fast Eddy says:

    I am trying to categorize the aggregated posts — are generally bad news posts for those who have injected the Dog Shit:

    A Great Start!!! And … she’s Dead hahaha… MOREON https://rumble.com/v1kftbj-family-shares-horror-story-on-facebook-mother-dies-in-the-bivalent-boosters.html

    In April of 2022 my husband was refereeing 13 yr old girls outdoor soccer. One of the girls running out on the field collapsed and said her chest was hurting and she couldn’t breathe, she was screaming in pain. There happened to be an EMT there and he came out on the field and checked her. He said she was having a heart attack. Her parents refused to get an ambulance. They took her to the hospital themselves. She didn’t show up for any games for a few months and when she did she couldn’t run on the field she had to be a goalie. When it happened the dad was asked if she got the 🥕and he got defensive and told everyone it was none of their business. >>> Died suddenly news

    https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2022.859926/full Case Report: New-Onset Rheumatoid Arthritis Following COVID-19 Vaccination

    UK Gov. pauses COVID Vaccine roll-out to 5 to 11-year-old Children after 22% INCREASE IN DEATHS among age group since NHS began to Vaccinate them

    Another Canadian doctor dies ‘suddenly’💉

    The Sausage Finger King is Vax Injured (like mummy and daddy) King Charles III facing ‘fatigue’ from intense schedule just days into his reign

    A recent study from Japan showed that 100% of vaccinated patients rejected cornea transplants, even if they’d received the transplant 20 years ago, due to a systematic inflammatory response elicited by the Covid shot WATCH HERE (https://rumble.com/v1k46qz-transplant-recipients-rejecting-organs-after-the-covid-jab.html)

    17-Year-Old Athlete Dies Suddenly Reportedly Due to “Heart Attack or Bloodclot”
    Tyler Erickson was found lifeless at a golf course while Practicing for Upcoming Golf Tournament
    Tyler Erickson died suddenly on Monday evening, two days before his birthday. He was 17.
    READ HERE (https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/09/17-year-old-athlete-dies-suddenly-due-heart-attack-bloodclot-practicing-upcoming-golf-tournament/)

    Latest CDC Report Shows 72% of Adult COVID-19 Associated Hospitalizations Were Vaccinated w/ 2-4 Doses During the Omicron BA.2 Wave


    REJECT ALL VACCINES https://drkevinstillwagon.substack.com/p/the-silent-killers-b15

    VAIDS Cometh https://dailysceptic.org/2022/09/13/number-of-long-term-sick-increases-by-350000-since-start-of-pandemic/

    Dropped Dead haha https://crossroadsreport.substack.com/p/iu-music-school-student-died-after

    Dr Richard Fleming, The spike protein entering the brain will cause CJD, Mad Cow Disease – “The spike protein is associated with Lewy body formation which is linked to prion diseases. The vaccines can cause prion diseases like dementia, Alzheimer’s, and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD)” https://t.me/childcovidvaccineinjuriesuk/2174

    Permanently F789ed https://rumble.com/v1kr269-islets-of-death-once-the-heart-scars-itll-never-be-the-same.html

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    Tim – this is for you https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/46918

    Fascinating stuff

  41. Daddio7 says:

    I live in northeast Florida, US. If it is hot, the sun is shining, if it is very cold, the sun shines during the day. My neighbor is a farmer and last year sold 400 acres of his land 3 miles from me to a utility to build a solar farm. $5.25 million.

    • One of the big draws of solar is all the money people can make by selling land for solar. Another is all of the subsidies along the way, otherwise. Some of the people selling land are politicians.

      If there were more of a level playing field, a person would expect decision makers to make more rational decisions. There are a few places that solar energy probably makes sense, especially where oil is the only alternative. This is often the case on islands. Someone needs to look at each situation closely, however.

      • Look at actual results — they had a big push to convert their power grids to wind/solar on Kauai & Molokai, and, as far as I know, abandondoned the idea — where/when has that actually worked?

  42. Do you think the arrival of a battery system about 1,000 more efficient than today’s will solve the issue? IT could accumulate as much solar power as it felt like.

    • I doubt that 1,000 more efficient would work; it would catch fire. We would all be working on making batteries, if the world could find materials to put them all together.

  43. Rodster says:

    In parts of Europe you will incur fines if you heat your home past 68F deg and the moreons running those governments are also, all in on Green Energy.

  44. T.Y. says:

    Thanks Gail for this new post ! I appreciate the effort to dive deeper into the various issues with renewables.

    • I was hoping people would be interested in some of these topics.

      The world seems to have a lot of people who are convinced that running out of oil and resulting high oil prices are close to our only problems.

  45. Rodster says:

    Let’s look at California who wants to go Green Energy as Gov. Gavin Newsom is banning all gas powered vehicles from 2035. They are telling their residents now to hold back from using the power grid to charge their vehicles during peak times. If they don’t cutback the government and power plants will have to implement shutting down parts of the grid.

  46. Fast Eddy says:

    It’s NOT a plane – it’s a MISSILE – video evidence:

    https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/46873 https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/46874

    Now we know why they didnt find and wreckage… no engines… no seats… nuthing.

  47. Fast Eddy says:

    Hahahahahaha… gosh — I guess nobody thought about this possibility … hopefully they had insurance!!!


  48. Fast Eddy says:

    Cheena – starving: Lifts were switched off in buildings to stop people leaving, the Guardian newspaper reported (Global Holodomor dry run). “We can’t buy stuff online as they don’t deliver and supermarkets are closed. Is the government treating us like animals, or do they just want us to die?” asked one user on the Weibo microblogging platform, quoted by the Guardian.


  49. Fast Eddy says:

    It don’t get no better than this!!!! A new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine has concluded that the mRNA Covid-19 injections destroy the natural immune system. https://expose-news.com/2022/09/18/nejm-study-confirms-covid-vaccination-causes-aid-syndrome/

    6 hr agoLiked by 2nd Smartest Guy in the World
    Do not need any funded studies by perpetrators.
    My own private studies since returning to work after mask mandates and testing were dropped I can inform that 90-95% of my patients are in the sick ‘hospitals’ for anything and all related to the experimental state injectables.
    -Exploding cancers, many very very rare and in younger and younger people
    -Cancers in remission coming back
    -Blood clots of all types and everywhere
    -Autoimmune dis eases
    -Neurological problems of all kinds
    -Extreme high incidence of acute appendicitis
    -Strange infections that does not heal

    The list is loooooonnnnng How many does actually know that they are partaking in a giant worldwide experiment that is still ongoing?

    Remember when it was mainly old half dead people who ended up in hospital with the flu…. https://dailysceptic.org/2022/09/18/large-early-flu-surge-threatens-health-service-doctors-warn/

  50. Fast Eddy says:


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