Ramping Up Renewables Can’t Provide Enough Heat Energy in Winter

We usually don’t think about the wonderful service fossil fuels provide in terms of being a store of heat energy for winter, the time when there is a greater need for heat energy. Figure 1 shows dramatically how, in the US, the residential usage of heating fuels spikes during the winter months.

Figure 1. US residential use of energy, based on EIA data. The category “Natural Gas, etc.” includes all fuels bought directly by households and burned. This is primarily natural gas, but also includes small amounts of propane and diesel burned as heating oil. Wood chips or other commercial wood purchased to be burned is also in this category.

Solar energy is most abundantly available in the May-June-July period, making it a poor candidate for fixing the problem of the need for winter heat.

Figure 2. California solar electricity production by month through June 30, 2022, based on EIA data. Amounts are for utility scale and small scale solar combined.

In some ways, the lack of availability of fuels for winter is a canary in the coal mine regarding future energy shortages. People have been concerned about oil shortages, but winter fuel shortages are, in many ways, just as bad. They can result in people “freezing in the dark.”

In this post, I will look at some of the issues involved.

[1] Batteries are suitable for fine-tuning the precise time during a 24-hour period solar electricity is used. They cannot be scaled up to store solar energy from summer to winter.

In today’s world, batteries can be used to delay the use of solar electricity for at most a few hours. In exceptional situations, perhaps the holding period can be increased to a few days.

California is known both for its high level of battery storage and its high level of renewables. These renewables include both solar and wind energy, plus smaller amounts of electricity generated in geothermal plants and electricity generated by burning biomass. The problem encountered is that the electricity generated by solar panels tends to start and end too early in the day, relative to when citizens want to use this electricity. After citizens return home after work, they would like to cook their dinners and use their air conditioning, leading to considerable demand after the sun sets.

Figure 3. Illustration by Inside Climate News showing the combination of resources utilized during July 9, 2022, which was a day of peak electricity consumption. Imports refer to electricity purchased from outside the State of California.

Figure 3 illustrates how batteries in combination with hydroelectric generation (hydro) are used to save electricity generation from early in the day for use in the evening hours. While battery use is suitable for fine tuning exactly when, during a 24-hour period, solar energy will be used, the quantity of batteries cannot be ramped up sufficiently to save electricity from summer to winter. The world would run out of battery-making materials, if nothing else.

[2] Ramping up hydro is not a solution to our problem of inadequate energy for heat in winter.

One problem is that, in long-industrialized economies, hydro capabilities were built out years ago.

Figure 4. Annual hydro generation based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

It is difficult to believe that much more buildout is available in these countries.

Another issue is that hydro tends to be quite variable from year to year, even over an area as large as the United States, as shown in Figure 4 above. When the variability is viewed over a smaller area, the year-to-year variability is even higher, as illustrated in Figure 5 below.

Figure 5. Monthly California hydroelectric generation through June 30, 2022, based on EIA data.

The pattern shown reflects peak generation in the spring, when the ice pack is melting. Low generation generally occurs during the winter, when the ice pack is frozen. Thus, hydro tends not be helpful for raising winter energy supplies. A similar pattern tends to happen in other temperate areas.

A third issue is that variability in hydro supply is already causing problems. Norway has recently reported that it may need to limit hydro exports in coming months because water reservoirs are low. Norway’s exports of electricity are used to help balance Europe’s wind and solar electricity. Thus, this issue may lead to yet another energy problem for Europe.

As another example, China reports a severe power crunch in its Sichuan Province, related to low rainfall and high temperatures. Fossil fuel generation is not available to fill the gap.

[3] Wind energy is not a greatly better than hydro and solar, in terms of variability and poor timing of supply.

For example, Europe experienced a power crunch in the third quarter of 2021 related to weak winds. Europe’s largest wind producers (Britain, Germany and France) produced only 14% of their rated capacity during this period, compared with an average of 20% to 26% in previous years. No one had planned for this kind of three-month shortfall.

In 2021, China experienced dry, windless weather, resulting in both its generation from wind and hydro being low. The country found it needed to use rolling blackouts to deal with the situation. This led to traffic lights failing and many families needing to eat candle-lit dinners.

Even viewed on a nationwide basis, US wind generation varies considerably from month to month.

Figure 6. Total US wind electricity generation through June 20, 2022, based on EIA data.

US total wind electricity generation tends to be highest in April or May. This can cause oversupply issues because hydro generation tends to be high about the same time. The demand for electricity tends to be low because of generally mild weather. The result is that even at today’s renewable levels, a wet, windy spring can lead to a situation in which the combination of hydro and wind electricity supply exceeds total local demand for electricity.

[4] As more wind and solar are added to the grid, the challenges and costs become increasingly great.

There are a huge number of technical problems associated with trying to add a large amount of wind and solar energy to the grid. Some of them are outlined in Figure 7.

Figure 7. Introductory slide from a presentation by power engineers shown in this YouTube Video.

One of the issues is torque distortion, especially related to wind energy.

Figure 8. Slide describing torque distortion issues from the same presentation to power engineers as Figure 7. YouTube Video.

There are also many other issues, including some outlined on this Drax website. Wind and solar provide no “inertia” to the system. This makes me wonder whether the grid could even function without a substantial amount of fossil fuel or nuclear generation providing sufficient inertia.

Furthermore, wind and solar tend to make voltage fluctuate, necessitating systems to absorb and discharge something called “reactive power.”

[5] The word “sustainable” has created unrealistic expectations with respect to intermittent wind and solar electricity.

A person in the wind turbine repair industry once told me, “Wind turbines run on a steady supply of replacement parts.” Individual parts may be made to last 20-years, or even longer, but there are so many parts that some are likely to need replacement long before that time. An article in Windpower Engineering says, “Turbine gearboxes are typically given a design life of 20 years, but few make it past the 10-year mark.”

There is also the problem of wind damage, especially in the case of a severe storm.

Figure 9. Hurricane-damaged solar panels in Puerto Rico. Source.

Furthermore, the operational lives for fossil fuel and nuclear generating plants are typically much longer than those for wind and solar. In the US, some nuclear plants have licenses to operate for 60 years. Efforts are underway to extend some licenses to 80 years.

With the short life spans for wind and solar, constant rebuilding of wind turbines and solar generation is necessary, using fossil fuels. Between the rebuilding issue and the need for fossil fuels to maintain the electric grid, the output of wind turbines and solar panels cannot be expected to last any longer than fossil fuel supply.

[6] Energy modeling has led to unrealistic expectations for wind and solar.

Energy models don’t take into account all of the many adjustments to the transmission system that are needed to support wind and solar, and the resulting added costs. Besides the direct cost of the extra transmission required, there is an ongoing need to inspect parts for signs of wear. Brush around the transmission lines also needs to be cut back. If adequate maintenance is not performed, transmission lines can cause fires. Burying transmission lines is sometimes an option, but doing so is expensive, both in energy use and cost.

Energy models also don’t take into account the way wind turbines and solar panels perform in “real life.” In particular, most researchers miss the point that electricity from solar panels cannot be expected to be very helpful for meeting our need for heat energy in winter. If we want to add more summer air conditioning, solar panels can “sort of” support this effort, especially if batteries are also added to help fine tune when, during the 24-hour day, the solar electricity will be utilized. Unfortunately, we don’t have any realistic way of saving the output of solar panels from summer to winter.

It seems to me that supporting air conditioning is a rather frivolous use for what seems to be a dwindling quantity of available energy supply. In my opinion, our first two priorities should be adequate food supply and preventing freezing in the dark in winter. Solar, especially, does nothing for these issues. Wind can be used to pump water for crops and animals. In fact, an ordinary windmill, built 100 years ago, can also be used to provide this type of service.

Because of the intermittency issue, especially the “summer to winter” intermittency issue, wind and solar are not truly replacements for electricity produced by fossil fuels or nuclear. The problem is that most of the current system needs to remain in place, in addition to the renewable energy system. When researchers make cost comparisons, they should be comparing the cost of the intermittent energy, including necessary batteries and grid enhancements with the cost of the fuel saved by operating these devices.

[7] Competitive pricing plans that enable the growth of wind and solar electricity are part of what is pushing a number of areas in the world toward a “freezing-in-the-dark” problem.

In the early days of electricity production, “utility pricing” was generally used. With this approach, vertical integration of electricity supply was encouraged. A utility would make long term contracts with a number of providers and would set prices for customers based on the expected long-term cost of electricity production and distribution. The utility would make certain that transmission lines were properly repaired and would add new generation as needed.

Energy prices of all kinds spiked in the late 1970s. Not long afterward, in an attempt to prevent high electricity prices from causing inflation, a shift in pricing arrangements started taking place. More competition was encouraged, with the new approach called competitive pricing. Vertically integrated groups were broken up. Wholesale electricity prices started varying by time of day, based on which providers were willing to sell their production at the lowest price, for that particular time period. This approach encouraged providers to neglect maintaining their power lines and stop adding more storage capacity. Any kind of overhead expense was discouraged.

In fact, under this arrangement, wind and solar were also given the privilege of “going first.” If too much energy in total was produced, negative rates could result for other providers. This approach was especially harmful for nuclear energy. Nuclear power plants found that their overall price structure was too low. They sometimes closed because of inadequate profitability. New investments in nuclear energy were discouraged, as was proper maintenance. This effect has been especially noticeable in Europe.

Figure 10. Nuclear, wind and solar electricity generated in Europe, based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The result is that about a third of the gain from wind and solar energy has been offset by the decline in nuclear electricity generation. Of course, nuclear is another low-carbon form of electricity. It is a great deal more reliable than wind or solar. It can even help prevent freezing in the dark because it is likely to be available in winter, when more electricity for heating is likely to be needed.

Another issue is that competitive pricing discouraged the building of adequate storage facilities for natural gas. Also, it tended to discourage purchasing natural gas under long term contracts. The thinking went, “Rather than building storage, why not wait until the natural gas is needed, and then purchase it at the market rate?”

Unfortunately, producing natural gas requires long-term investments. Companies producing natural gas operate wells that produce approximately equal amounts year-round. The same pattern of high winter-consumption of natural gas tends to occur almost simultaneously in many Northern Hemisphere areas with cold winters. If the system is going to work, customers need to be purchasing natural gas, year-round, and stowing it away for winter.

Natural gas production has been falling in Europe, as has coal production (not shown), necessitating more imports of replacement fuel, often natural gas.

Figure 11. Natural gas production in Europe, based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

With competitive rating and LNG ships seeming to sell natural gas on an “as needed” basis, there has been a tendency in Europe to overlook the need for long term contracts and additional storage to go with rising natural gas imports. Now, Europe is starting to discover the folly of this approach. Solar is close to worthless for providing electricity in winter; wind cannot be relied upon. It doesn’t ramp up nearly quickly enough, in any reasonable timeframe. The danger is that countries will risk having their citizens freeze in the dark because of inadequate natural gas import availability.

[8] The world is a very long way from producing enough wind and solar to solve its energy problems, especially its need for heat in winter.

The energy supply that the world uses includes much more than electricity. It contains oil and fuels burned directly, such as natural gas. The percentage share of this total energy supply that wind and solar output provides depends on how it is counted. The International Energy Agency treats wind and solar as if they only replace fuel, rather than replacing dispatchable electricity.

Figure 12 Wind and solar generation for a category called “Wind, Solar, etc.” by the IEA. Amounts are for 2020 for Germany, the UK, Australia, Norway, the United States, and Japan. For other groups shown in this chart, the amounts are calculated using 2019 data.

On this basis, the share of total energy provided by the Wind and Solar category is very low, only 2.2% for the world as a whole. Germany comes out highest of the groups analyzed, but even it is replacing only 6.0% of its total energy consumed. It is difficult to imagine how the land and water around Germany could tolerate wind turbines and solar panels being ramped up sufficiently to cover such a shortfall. Other parts of the world are even farther from replacing current energy supplies with wind and solar.

Clearly, we cannot expect wind and solar to ever be ramped up to meet our energy needs, even in combination with hydro.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,845 Responses to Ramping Up Renewables Can’t Provide Enough Heat Energy in Winter

  1. Jane says:

    Re the film “The Big Reset” and Tim Groves’s comment under “older comments”:

    I agree with all that you say. The closing shot of Montagnier with the window rolling up is poignant and sez it all.
    People canceled and maybe ultimately “canceled” to shut them up.

    Once again I highly recommend “The Big Reset.”
    Many interesting and hard-hitting interviews with highly insightful and qualified people from France and Spain who are new to me and probably to most English speakers. English captions are good, but be prepared to hit pause, as some go by quite quickly.

  2. Student says:

    (Israel National News)

    ”Young mother describes ordeal following COVID vaccination
    Problems started two hours after vaccination and only got worse.”

    ”I feel that my story should not be kept quiet, is how one young mother describes her experiences following vaccination against COVID.
    I was vaccinated on the third of May. Two hours following the vaccine I got Steven-Johnson’s Syndrome and I had to go to hospital … I got a blood clot in my left kidney which lost 90 percent of its function, and I have swelling so bad I can’t wear shoes and sometimes I can’t bend my hands or even open my eyes.
    One time I lost consciousness for three days, and I went into fits … I thought I was going to die. I had a blood clot in my arm, in my spine, and in my neck which got stuck on its way to my brain.
    I’m not producing enough blood cells … I’m going to need a transfusion.
    “I feel like I’m losing the battle slowly, and I pray to G-d that I will get to see another day and not lose faith. I just want my family around me, my husband, my child…”

    the video inside the article is also very touching.


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  4. Student says:

    (Times of Israel)

    The following article about Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease is very interesting, but it is reporting that CJD is caused either by DNA heritage or ingestion of infected meat…

    “CJD is disproportionately found among Jews of Libyan and Tunisian origin. It is estimated that there are thousands of carriers of the CJD-causing E200K mutation (in the DNA) living in Israel, and children with just one carrier-parent can develop the incurable disease.”

    but at the same the article says that:

    “CJD is particularly well-known because it can be caused by eating beef infected by bovine spongiform encephalopathy, known colloquially as mad cow disease.”

    Double origin? Is there any reason why we are talking again about CJD ?

    By the way (not linked with the article) a friend of my uncle (who was 58) has just died in Italy of CJD. The doctors said that it was probably due because he spent 2 years in UK in the past….A little bit poor as exlanation.


  5. Annette Smith says:

    I don’t understand the graphs, which have a title of “monthly” but all seem to show daily rather than monthly data.

    • The charts show average per day, for individual months.

      • McKenzie says:

        Great article, but several of the graphs are DEFINITELY messed up. Figure 1, Figure 2, Figure 5, Figure 6 are showing up for me as daily graphs, not matching the caption at all.

        • The amounts are average daily amounts, within a given month. It is difficult to caption this fully. You have to read the side caption as well as the top one.

          The amounts I was working from were monthly amounts. I divided by the number of days in a month, so that month-to-month variation would not occur, simply because of the length of the month.

        • McKenzie says:

          OK. I get it now. What was confusing me was that I thought Jan-01 was January 1st, not January 2001. And similarly for other graphs. But all the graphs make sense to me now. Thank you for explaining it.

  6. voza0db says:

    I posted a comment with a link of a reference paper, very likely still in SPAM!

  7. voza0db says:

    Figure 2. California solar electricity production by month through June 30, 2022, based on EIA data. Amounts are for utility scale and small scale solar combined.

    The graph doesn’t match.

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  11. I AM THE MOB says:

    This blog is a great example of the greatest human achievement. The sharing of knowledge.

    Which started “around the campfire”.


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  21. voza0db says:

    Hello Dear Gail…

    Have you ever read this paper?

    “Assessment of the Extra Capacity Required of Alternative Energy Electrical Power Systems to Completely Replace Fossil Fuels”
    source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354067356_Assessment_of_the_Extra_Capacity_Required_of_Alternative_Energy_Electrical_Power_Systems_to_Completely_Replace_Fossil_Fuels

    It’s a very FUN read and a clear evidence that this is NOT the way [pseudo-green energy sources] to move forward!

    • I am very much aware of this article. I have read the summary at the beginning. You will find that this report, as well as other recent reports by Simon Michaux, reference some of my work. I have corresponded with Simon various times in the past.I have never met him in person.

      • drb753 says:

        Simon gave a remote talk at an american university last week. I got invited and attended. As he likes slides with successive points, the slide deck was 199 slides. never seen anything like it.

      • voza0db says:

        Clearly the main problem is that we don’t have enough resources for such a pharaonic delusion so the problem of renewables being unable to provide enough energy for heating is a very minor one.

        You’re obsessed with replacing sources of energy while not giving attention to the wasted energy our current civilization generates (>50% of the produced energy).

        At least it keeps us entertained…

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  31. im due for another on thursday

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  34. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Following the Armageddon Script

    U.S. has sent private warnings to Russia against using a nuclear weapon

    The United States for several months has been sending private communications to Moscow warning Russia’s leadership of the grave consequences that would follow the use of a nuclear weapon, according to U.S. officials, who said the messages underscore what President Biden and his aides have articulated publicly.

    The Biden administration generally has decided to keep warnings about the consequences of a nuclear strike deliberately vague, so the Kremlin worries about how Washington might respond, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive deliberations.

    The attempt by the White House to cultivate what’s known in the nuclear deterrence world as “strategic ambiguity” comes as Russia continues to escalate its rhetoric about possible nuclear weapons use amid a domestic mobilization aimed at stanching Russian military losses in eastern Ukraine.

    Matthew Kroenig, a professor of government at Georgetown University and director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, has argued that the best option for the administration, if faced with a limited Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine, might be to step up backing for Ukraine and conduct a limited conventional strike on the Russian forces or bases that launched the attack.

    “If it’s Russian forces in Ukraine that launched the nuclear attack, the United States could strike directly against those forces,” Kroenig said. “It would be calibrated to send a message that this is not a major war coming, this is a limited strike. If you are Putin, what do you do in response? I don’t think you immediately say let’s launch all the nukes at the United States.”

    But even a limited conventional strike by the U.S. military against Russia would be viewed as reckless by many in Washington, who would argue against risking a full-scale war with a nuclear-armed Russia.

    • If one side launch’s ‘a limited strike’ the millisecond a response is made, everything on all sides goes on alert. From that point the window rapidly closes on the opportunity for counter strike if an installation is within the projected radius of exposure, which mandates everything gets lunched before getting hit. There is no way to know what payload an incoming missile is carrying, so the worst case contingency is assumed by all sides for incoming active threats, The reaction is a domino effect in the first minutes from the immediately surrounding installations in a strike/response scenario. Then if there is escalation No one will be thinking, just sending everything before it’s too late and by then it’s of course far to late for the ROTW….unless you’re a cockroach. BAU for all cockroaches American ones Russian one European ones Israeli ones Chinese ones

      • Fast Eddy says:

        If UEP is failing … and they are faced with ROF … Plan B is likely to be to have all nuclear powers launch everything in the arsenal…. this would actually make a lot of sense

      • banned says:

        One thing that works against the decision to make a preemptive strategic nuclear strike is that as I understand it they game a nuclear war in waves because the first detonations hinder further delivery for a period of time. The nuclear delivery devices are metered out in each wave, its not a big get the first hit in. They expect to be launching nukes at each other for a extended period of time hide and seek ecetera. A incredible amount of thought has been put into survivability to engage in the process of continuing to launch each wave as planned. Because of this the advantage of a preemptive nuclear strike is lessened not negated. Launch dust cloud clear launch dust cloud clear… Repeat until your out of nukes. This should take some time with the amount of nukes we have created.

        The big unknown is unknown is new weapon technology. Medvedev mentioned the possibility of using new weapons technology instead of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. It may turn out nuclear weapons are obsolete. 70 years of black weapons programs probably have yielded some new revolutionary weapon principles Unknown principles that would do things like collapse huge buildings without explosives perhaps energy weapons targeting destructive resonance frequencies of the material of the hard fastening rivets. Crazy talk of course. There are brilliant people with understandings of physics on both sides and when they are asked to try to figure out weapons principles they can do so just like back in the day at Los Alamos. We may get a peek into the pandoras box of state arsenals real soon. The Kramatorsk area fortifications are not easily destroyed. Russia may not want to take the losses and may pull a suitable non nuclear tool out of its Pandoras tool box to crack that very hard nut. Which would of course require something equally new and nasty being pulled out of the wests black project box of misery. You become what you practice.

    • Things get increasingly frightening.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        has sent private warnings to Russia against using a nuclear weapon The United States


      • MM says:

        Actually a mobilization will take at least three months.
        We will have to wait what happens to the monetary system until then.
        There is absolutely no need to worry what so ever. This will all play out well. More jobs, more money. That is a given.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Usually when it comes to foreign policy and diplomacy they conduct it in secrecy…

      Therefore I suspect this is all theatre… nobody will use nuclear weapons cuz suicide…

      Unless… Unless… nuclear annihilation is a component of UEP… the Elders like tipping their hat with regards to their UEP plans … almost as if they are taunting us… because they know the MOREONS are so stooopid that you can actually tell them the plan and they won’t understand — remember the virus thing at the Olympic games and Utopia…

      • Lidia17 says:

        So you think the Elders are going to just go all “Thelma & Louise” on us?

        Mmmm. Not sure about that. I can’t imagine they don’t seek a lifeboat of some kind for themselves. With the amount of money / energy currently on earth, they conceivably *could* divert resources from Pepsi-Cola and OnlyFans to least dry-casking the nukes and buying themselves some time.. I mean, isn’t that what you would do?

        Someone who reads here must have a closer idea of what “they” are up to. Come on, spill the beans!

        • the eternal ‘they’ and the ubiquitous ‘elders’.

          few grasp the ‘eternal point’ that without the rest of us, ‘they’ could not exist.

          in any event ‘they’ are just an abstract blame focus for the mess we have all got ourselves into.

          It cannot possibly be ‘our’ fault

          therefore by definition it must be ‘their’ fault

          Part of the ‘great conspiracy’ to get rid of all of ‘us’ so that ‘they’ can enjoy the planet as the ultimate playground.
          Exactly what they would do in that playground escapes me. And everyone else.
          Sans oil—no one ‘does’ anything except scrabble for food.

          Still, it provides a little amusement to anyone able to think independently.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          We’ve already seen what happens to the ‘Elders’ during the French Revolution and more recently Sri Lanka… when the Centre no longer holds the mob comes looking for those who caused the chaos…

  35. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Pump Prices in US Soar as Supply Cracks Outweigh Weak Demand

    (Bloomberg) — The US is running low on gasoline on the West Coast and in the Midwest, where prices are surging on the street, defying falling futures markets.

    Wholesale fuel prices in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Portland have all reached record highs this week as a spate of unplanned refinery shutdowns compounded scheduled maintenance, at a time when seasonal stockpiles are already at their lowest level in 14 years.

    A similar dynamic is playing out in the Midwest, where a deadly refinery fire sent Chicago wholesale gasoline surging, matching its most expensive level ever relative to futures. Meanwhile, pump prices are rising again in many states, as is the national average, according to auto club AAA.

    Soaring fuel prices on the ground are in sharp contrast to what’s playing out in the futures markets for both oil and gasoline, where traders are focused on a worsening global economic outlook. The signs of a slowing economy — from weak fuel demand to collapsing freight markets — are hard to ignore, not to mention the spate of additional interest rate hikes this week designed to rein in inflation that will no doubt also stunt growth. For the consumer already weighed down by historic costs, rising pump prices are another burden they must bear.

    • The financial markets get increasingly disconnected from the real-world markets.

      Besides the gasoline issues mentioned in this article, I wonder whether there will be problems with diesel supply in the US Northeast. Also, airline fuel.

      This winter, natural gas may become a problem in the US Northeast because it is distant from US Gulf Coast supply and lacks enough separate storage. There is also an adequate-pipeline issue, if natural gas for heat and for electricity are simultaneously in high demand.

      • Sam says:

        Thanks this is something I am watching too. I think it could be a sleeping giant of a problem. It is hard to limit the amount of natural gas prices even in a depression people still need to cook, heat houses and water heater. Where I live people have put radiant heat in the sidewalks and driveways can’t be shoveling snow. I know that one of gates’ house in the mountains uses This procedure. So he can’t really be concerned about climate change.

  36. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Keep on Boosting…

    ‘I’m Dropping My COVID Hubris,’ Vows a Top Immunologist

    Last May a subvariant of the ever-evolving Omicron stunned Chris Goodnow, an internationally renowned immunologist.
    Announcements, Events & more from Tyee and select partners
    Send Us Your Late-Night Diner Stories Send Us Your Late-Night Diner Stories

    What role have these spots played in your life? Share your stories with The Tyee by Sept. 28.

    The extremely fit Australian scientist, who hiked, biked and surfed at Sydney’s Manly Beach, had been bolstered by four doses of vaccine. Having spent nearly four decades studying how white blood cells in the immune system protect us from infection, he felt pretty safe about removing his mask.

    “Maybe it would be better to catch the ’rona and get it over with, now that I’m fully vaccinated?” he remembers speculating.

    “After all, isn’t it just a cold in fully immunized people? And once I’ve had it, won’t I have acquired immunity that will mean I won’t get sick at all if I get it again?”

    But Omicron made a mockery of these popular assumptions.

    On May 26, Goodnow came down with a scratchy throat. Twelve days later his immune system had not cleared the virus. Then he got hit by congestive heart failure. He developed a chest cough and was breathless. His ankles swelled up.

    Goodnow was lucky. His acute myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) was on the mild end of the spectrum but severe enough to reduce his mobility and working life.

    As a consequence of the infection, last July Goodnow resigned his directorship of the Immunogenomics Lab at the Garvan Institute of Medical Research in Sydney, Australia, “for health reasons.”

    In a remarkably blunt interview with an Australian radio station, and later a personal column, Goodnow admitted that COVID had not behaved as widely expected.

    “That is the thing that really stunned me and I’m sure has stunned most immunologists,” he said in the radio interview.

    Like many scientists Goodnow assumed that any infection after vaccination would be mild; that reinfections would largely be asymptomatic; that COVID would behave like a cold after vaccination; and that variant-specific vaccines would deliver us from the pandemic.

    But Goodnow now considers these assumptions wrong and has set about debunking myths that “many of us, myself included, have entertained more than we should have,” he writes. He now joins a growing cadre of scientific experts sounding new alarms about COVID, the “so many others” he says, who “are working hard to stop endless waves of reinfection.”

    • Tim Groves says:

      A more accurate headline would be:

      “Immunologist becomes immune compromised after four jabs!”

      No comparison between long-term outcomes in jabbed vs. unjabbed. And not a word about Vitamin D, Zinc, NAC, Ivermectin and other useful substances in the fight to keep well. Just keep getting boosted and keep wearing a mask.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Just when I thought the day could not get any better — there is THIS!

      THIS is exquisite…. the best part is that he’s so young hahahaha… and now he’s Completely F789ed…. hahaha

      And… he still has no idea what he’s done to himself… he’ll definitely be taking more boosters… cuz he will remain convinced that covid f789ed him up … and that the injections are Safe and Effective.

      My delight at absorbing his comments knows no bounds…

      norm — can I share some of my delight with you … I’ve got way to much … let me slice off a piece for you … will you pass me your plate…


      He now joins a growing cadre of scientific experts sounding new alarms about COVID, the “so many others” he says, who “are working hard to stop endless waves of reinfection.”

      Ooooh Covid is even more dangerous than we thought!!!

  37. MG says:

    The measures against energy crisis being approved by the Slovak parliament:


    Google Translate:

    “Parliament approved key energy laws in the first reading

    Energy amendments to the laws, which are supposed to help in the fight against expensive energy, are closer to approval. The deputies moved the amendments to the second reading.

    At the proposal of the Ministry of Economy of the Slovak Republic, the Government submitted to the plenary session an amendment to the Act on Energy and the Act on Regulation in Network Sectors. After the final approval of the amendments, the ministry will have a freer hand when declaring a state of emergency in the energy sector or general economic interest in energy prices. All 131 deputies present supported the amendments.

    Thanks to the aforementioned amendments, the concept of a state of emergency in the electricity and gas industry will be expanded. “The state will thus have sufficient legislative instruments, thanks to which it will be able to respond flexibly and effectively to the eventual emergence of a state of emergency,” the Ministry of Economy pointed out. In a state of emergency, based on a government decision, it will be possible to order electricity or gas market participants to take measures to ensure the availability of electricity at specified prices or for reasonable compensation in the form of payment of reasonable costs. The measures imposed must be proportionate, non-discriminatory and transparent. The Ministry can order measures only to the necessary extent and for the necessary period.

    The concept of a state of emergency will be extended to the period when the wholesale price of electricity and gas reaches values that may cause price inaccessibility of electricity or gas for consumers and at the same time may lead to a threat to the security of the state, the life and health of a large group of consumers or significant economic damage to end consumers of electricity .

    After the approval of the amendments to the energy laws, the Ministry of Economy will be able to issue a general economic interest to ensure the safety, regularity, quality and price of electricity and gas supplies for households. In this way, the ministry can prevent the negative impact of a high increase in electricity and gas prices on the most vulnerable customers.”

    • Lastcall says:

      Alice in Wonderland has nothing on this!
      Wasn’t there some dude who commanded the tide to not come in?

      ‘King Canute insisted that his throne be taken to the edge of the ocean where he thereupon commanded the tide not to rise. But rise it did, lapping his feet and beginning to swallow the chair. The courtiers rushed him back. The King thereby proclaimed the following: “Let all men know how empty and worthless is the power of kings, for there is none worthy of the name, but He whom heaven, earth, and sea obey by eternal laws.”

      King Canute hung up his crown and never wore it again. ‘

      Would only the current Covid fools abdicate…

      ‘Now, that’s some political humility right there. As we all await, day after day, and perhaps in vain, for governors and public health officials to issue apologies for their vicious and destructive lockdowns that have done nothing to control the virus tide, King Canute’s example is an inspiration.’

      ‘ A virus is an individual matter. As the media used to say half a century ago whenever a virus came along, if you get sick, see a doctor. If you are especially vulnerable to being taken down by a virus, isolate yourself. Above all, don’t panic. Let society move forth in calm and normalcy. Let no man imagine himself capable of commanding the tide. This was the way the New York Times reported on 1952, 1957, 1968, 2006, and then things began to change until we got to 2020, when deliberately creating public fear became a tactic for competing in the new age of 24/7 app-based news consumption.;


      • There is a way to work around all problems! Nationalization = low price => low supply.

        • MG says:

          If energy markets are manipulated, such measures are inevitable.

          The energy price is either low, or there is no energy available. Subsidize or nationalize, as long as it is possible…

    • MM says:

      The basic prblem here is that governments think they can make laws.

      If you look at the bank for international settlements in Zurich you will find out that all members have diplomatic immunity.

      Immunity does not mean you can not be asked to a room in the airport and be shot.
      It means that a lay man can never ask this person to do or say anything of the layman’s interest.

      In case of law questions there is just one single rule:

      Your law does not apply to me, I only follow the rules of the order.

      Unfortunately too many people just follow the rules. It seems to give you an evolutionary advantage as in I am still here if I comply.


  38. CTG says:

    Norman Pagett, this is for you. From a sane person to you since you don’t want (or could not) to talk about COVID. Let us talk about energy.

    1. UK is totally reliant on others for energy. Need to import energy (gas and electric).

    2. Sterling has gone down quite a lot against all currencies. It looks like a death spiral. Interest on Gilts has gone up. That means servicing debts will be higher this week than last week.

    3. Truss can walk back the tax cut but it seems to look like a little too late. It is politically unpalatable to remove the tax cut.

    4. BoE can raise interest rates to arrest inflation but this inflation is not the same as previous inflation. Shortages are still present. Raising interest rates do not mean that energy storage will increase.

    5. Raising interest rates does not mean that things will get cheaper. Not at all. In fact people will bear more pain due to higher mortgages and all sorts of loans (especially commercial and industrial loans)

    6. Stocks will go down because companies’ margin will be reduced due to higher interest rates

    7. Margin calls happen, and banks may have problems especially derivatives since a large bulk is related to interest rates. So do we see a redux of 2008?

    I see no solution to this issue. It will spread across the whole of Europe.

    So, Norman, please push aside “Energy make things go round”, “the turning action made by energy makes this modern civilization possible” and all other unrelated energy facts that we know.

    Give us your comments.

    • My two cents:

      Financial markets and the real economy will become increasingly disconnected.

      There will be lots of discontinuities and fighting. Fuel for your vehicle may be available at a reasonable price, but only at a station 50 km away. Electricity may be available but very intermittently, in fact, not much at all in winter.

      Expect false stories from politicians and the military to cover up what is really happening.

    • CTG

      1—talking about covid is/was an endless, pointless excercise, in the face of infinite nutty theories about it, and people having thier own ‘certainties’, which they are entitled to–but not entitled to inflict on me.
      Hence i offer no opinions–either way.
      This seems to annoy some people.
      If you notice–it doesn’t make me angry–just amused

      As to the rest, I cant follow your main point

      We live in a surplus energy economy, not a surplus money economy.

      But the ‘surplus energy’ part has now evaporated.

      That is all anyone needs to know,

      The problem is, our government rejects this notion, and acts as if the energy problem did not exist—and that growth will appear if we spend/borrow sufficient money.
      This what all governments do.
      UK govt is doing just that.

      All the other points you make are more or less correct, but are just political side issues, I could dream up a hundred more—all irrelevant.

      The ‘energy factor’ cannot be pushed aside–it will always rear its head.
      Surplus energy put 8 billion people here.
      Remove surplus energy and 7 billion of us do not have a future. If you can’t understand that, then this discussion is pointless.

      There is no solution to it—this is why ‘covid’ has been a side issue. It hasnt been an ‘extermination plan’—the energy problem is our ‘extermination plan.’

      Whether you choose to recognise this is, again, irrelevant.
      It doesn’t change ‘what is’.

      • CTG says:

        same old same old…. surplus energy….. I think your mind is now locked on only

        1. surplus energy
        2. shooting FE.

        • well CTG, i do not doubt your intellect

          so if you can come up with any aspect of your current existence that does not specifically depend on the availability of cheap surplus energy, I would be interested to know about it.

          Or indeed the support factor of 90% of the existing world population, in addition to yourself.

          You may disagree with me, but at least come up with something other than ‘you’re wrong’.

          That just will not do I’m afraid.

          (And FE is just too easy a target, if you want adult discussion, best leave him out of it)

      • Lidia17 says:

        The “nutty theory” is that “covid” was every anything extremely lethal to begin with.

        It’s beyond obvious that the covid sleight-of-hand is to distract from the crushing energy issue. That you can clearly see one and not the other is… interesting.

        The injections *will* have negative fertility ramifications. Among finite-worlders, some may not view that as e a bad thing (apart from the vast collateral pain and suffering and totalitarian annihilation of human rights, that is…).

        • covid was unleashed through our determination to intrude too deeply into animal territory in order to extract their energy resources

          just as it was in the 1921 outbreak

          we herded animals and ourselves too close together–viruses mutated and jumped species.

          that has been happening throughout history. (check it for yourself)

          if you want to put some kind of ‘conspiracy’ on it, that is your privelege. There was no ‘conspiracy’ on the 1921 outbreak, because there was no social media with which to fan the flames of it.

          No doctors are conspiring to bump me off, or experiment on my offspring, or reduce world population.

          Doctors make mistakes, the rest of us may suffer for it. That has always been the case. I’m lucky in never needing doctors, for now anyway.

          On a personal level one of my kids came within a whisker of being hit by Thalidomide, saved purely by ‘mothers instinct’–but I don’t look back on that episode as a conspiracy by ‘they’ as seeking to produce a race of limbless people.

        • Mike Roberts says:

          Clearly, COVID-19 was and is lethal, to those who died because of it. If by “extremely lethal” you mean a high IFR, we’ll never know but the CFR was touching 4% at one stage (worldwide).

          Those who think it was invented as a distraction from energy issues, perhaps miss what’s happening now when almost every government wants to forget about COVID and just get on with growing the economy.

          • Tim Groves says:

            Hi Mike. Nice to see you commenting here again.

            But I think you are singing a tune that is well past its sell-by date. This constant game of trying to overstate the severity of Covid-19 as if it was somewhere between a repeat of the 1918 Spanish Flu and the Black Death is growing a bit stale, don’t you think?

            Can we get something clear. We’ll probably never know how many people died “of” Covid-19 or how many died “with” it but not “from” it, will we? Because Covid-19 is a political-football of a disease heading isn’t it? Just like AIDS is.

          • Withnail says:

            Those who think it was invented as a distraction from energy issues, perhaps miss what’s happening now when almost every government wants to forget about COVID and just get on with growing the economy.

            Growing the economy? I think what you mean is trying desperately to prevent the imminent collapse of the economy.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Growing the economy … hahahahaha…. that’s so 1980s!!!

              Unfortunately trillions of $$$ is the only thing between us and Mad Max… and that is failing …

            • But perhaps some limited parts of the world with significant energy and lowish population can keep growing, or keep from crashing completely.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              The highlands of IJ… in the more remote areas I did not see even a plastic bottle… nothing from BAU at all… those were the grimmest places… this village in particular was nasty — mud and slop … inside that hut we expected to find Kurtz.. but nope — just a family huddled around a smoky fire struggling to keep warm….



              The problem is the spent ponds… they tend to spread their payloads far and wide… those people will not understand why they are suddenly dying.

            • We really don’t know how bad the radiation problem will be. It may be as bad as you say, but it may be a whole lot less of a problem. Some parts of the world have much higher radiation levels than others, and it doesn’t seem to be a big problem. Medical treatments use very high levels of radiation. We don’t have examples of lots of people dying off because of problems with spent fuel pools, at this time.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I like to reference my discussion with my cousin Andrew … head safety engineer at a nuclear plant in Ontario …

              What would happen if the cooling water boiled off and the rods were exposed to the air — and the emergency systems that spray cooling water onto the rods while the problem is fixed… was out of commission as well?

              That can’t happen because we have added even more back up in the event of an emergency – including more pumps and more diesel storage to operate the pumps.

              Yes but what if the diesel that ran the pumps ran out and it was impossible to get more diesel to the site?

              That can’t happen.

              Ya I know it’s really unlikely but what if…

              It can’t happen.

              I could sense irritation so I stopped this line of questioning.

              Now did he mean – it can’t happen because it’s not possible? Of course it is possible — a war situation could cause that to happen… it is possible for that to happen…

              Or did he mean — that can’t happen because it would result in an epic release of radiation that would poison all of southern Ontario and the northern United States rather quickly killing millions — and if there was no way to get water onto those rods the poison would keep billowing out of the ponds for centuries.. spreading cancer far and wide?

              I reckon he meant… the later

              He would be aware of this:

              Japan’s chief cabinet secretary called it “the devil’s scenario.” Two weeks after the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami devastated the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, causing three nuclear reactors to melt down and release radioactive plumes, officials were bracing for even worse. They feared that spent fuel stored in pools in the reactor halls would catch fire and send radioactive smoke across a much wider swath of eastern Japan, including Tokyo.

              In their simulations, the Princeton duo focused on Cs-137, a radioisotope with a 30-year half-life that has made large tracts around Chernobyl and Fukushima uninhabitable. They assumed a release of 1600 petabecquerels, which is the average amount of Cs-137 that NRC estimates would be released from a fire at a densely packed pool, and approximately 100 times the Cs-137 spewed at Fukushima. They simulated such a release on the first day of each month in 2015.

              The contamination from such a fire on U.S. soil “would be an unprecedented peacetime catastrophe,” the Princeton researchers conclude in a paper to be submitted to the journal Science & Global Security. For a fire on 1 January 2015, with the winds blowing due east, the radioactive plume would sweep over Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and nearby cities (Figure 1 nightmare scenarios). For a fire on 1 July 2015, shifting winds would deposit Cs-137 over much of the mid-Atlantic.

              Averaged over 12 monthly calculations, the area of heavy contamination—exceeding 1 megabecquerel per square meter, the level that would trigger a relocation—is 101,000 square kilometers. That’s more than three times NRC’s estimate and would force the relocation of 18.1 million people on average, about five times NRC’s estimates.


              Now keep in mind… these suckers don’t just stop spewing … they go on and on and on… thing a Tesla battery catching fire x 1000000000.

              And the stuff that spews out is highly toxic and would remain in the soil and water for many many years…

              And it would spread with the wind… think dust… think water convection and precipitation.

              Keep in mind this knowledge is what ultimately convinced me that prepping was futile — everyone dies here. That along with the fact that I’d rather die than live a few more years in drudgery and misery … half starved all the time …

              And without coffee. Ya that was the killer – no coffee. Hell on Earth

          • Fast Eddy says:

            It’s as deadly as the flu — slightly more for the near death elderly — slightly less for the young and healthy.

            Ultimately it’s a flu-like illness.

            Many of the deaths were actually murders — there are plenty of top doctors as well as many nurses who will tell you that Covid patients were prescribed Remdesivir – which does not save people from covid but does shut down the internal organs particularly the kidneys… and that Midazolam and morphine which inhibit respiratory function – were given to covid patients… this was institutionalized murder for the purpose of driving up deaths to frighten people into injecting the experiment.

  39. MG says:

    I have to summarise it again:

    The equator areas are the realm of the plants: there is no frost, abundance of the Sun energy and water
    The tropic of Cancer/Capricorn is uninhabitable: there is little water
    The mild areas are the realm of the humans: some frost that kills the plants periodically and an abundance of water
    The cold areas are uninhabitable: little energy of the Sun

    How can you believe that Russia is strong, if it seeks help from warm countries like China or India, after dismissing the West?

    China or India have a problem with not enough water, while the West still has got an abundance of water, despite the clmt chng.

  40. Adonis says:

    The dow and oil took a big hit today

  41. CTG says:

    There was a link somewhere in this post on Simpsons’ episode 9 season 24 Doomsday. I think posted by FE.

    Well, perhaps 24-9-2022 is the start of the financial collapse (starts from UK). Homer Simpson was not wrong through…..

    • MM says:

      If even Homer knew it! What can go wrong here?

      What is the actual information situation from China? Nothing going on.
      Ok, let’s go to Moe’s. I’ll buy a drink for CTG!

      • CTG says:

        Everything is surreal or felt unreal…. it is all a simulation….

        • MM says:

          For my part I feel it like this:

          I can no longer say that I have and can apply free will.
          If I am in the Metro in Vienna I do not use a mandatory mask. Do I do that because it is my will or do I do that because I am in some way driven by external information.
          If I go to the groceries, I buy stuff sometimes thinking, I could need that just in case. Am I in control of my free will here? I am not sure.
          If you have a sense of heating problems you might want to insulate your house because it is just a good thing to do.
          Do you insulate your house just because some crazies ramp up the prices for energy.

          We are at the basement of human endeavor. Whatever I do, it is just a machine input onto me. This is pretty close to a simulation. It is just one level lower….

          • CTG says:

            ah… I see some light in the tunnel… I used to be an engineer (quite accomplished I would say) and a computer programmer. That helps me to understand things even better..

          • Lidia17 says:

            MM, if this is the basement, what was the penthouse?

            • MM says:

              Thank you for this very good question.
              For the moment I’d say we are in the elevator directed to the basement.
              Pull the emergency break?
              On your question, I would say that German idealism was pretty close.
              But this could be a tainted answer from my roots….

    • Lidia17 says:

      Does a lack of free will necessitate that the situation is, as you call it, a “simulation”?

      A simulation implies to me that there are other possible “runs”. My feeling is that our options are substantially more limited.

  42. Slowly at first says:

    I am increasingly dependent on artificial lighting simply to reach the nearest bathroom in my capacious American house.

  43. Mirror on the wall says:

    Things are moving on, the east and south of UKR are voting to join Russia, like Crimea already has.

    UKR forces are shelling civilians to try to stop them voting. That is called terrorism in any other context, which shows how much NATO states really care about anything.

  44. MG says:

    The monasteries play a central role in the Western world.

    The Russian communist regime wiped them out in Czechoslovakia after WWII:


    Such was the time before the beginning of the Russian energy rule in the Eastern and Central Europe.

    The belief in a higher power was replaced by the belief in the human work.

    When the new energy sources of oil and natural gas from Russia came into Czechoslovakia, the country wanted to be independent. Like the Ukraine. So Russia invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968.

    Today, Russia is no longer a cheap energy provider, as easy to get energy resources have already been extracted.

    There is an increasing number of countries like Russia. But they are warmer, so their populations are easier to maintain.

    Vladimír Putin chose the kamikaze self-destruction war. Which is nothing else than a different way of depopulation. It is an accelerated depopulation. He does the dirty job of eliminating mentally crippled individuals. The smart ones are emigrating…

    • gpdawson2016 says:

      My Dear MG, what have you got against Putin really?….

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        “The Russian communist regime wiped them out…”

        well, he conflates the former communist USSR with the present Russia.

        I will assume that the Czech Republic has bent over obediently to the bully woketards in the West.

        too bad, siding with Russia and their amazing bountiful energy resources would have been very beneficial to the common Czech citizens.

        but then, these Elitard Eurotards don’t seem to care about common citizens like MG… right MG?

  45. Agamemnon says:

    “ supporting air conditioning is a rather frivolous use for what seems to be a dwindling quantity of available energy supply. In my opinion, our first two priorities should be adequate food supply and preventing freezing in the dark in winter. ”
    True but the south lagged the north economically partly due to hotness. The problem was unbridled growth by Pollyanna thinking. What are universities for again?
    Ok it’s more due to being too affluent.
    Maybe the actuaries didn’t calculate the growth risk properly:)

    • Humans came into being, in Africa. Early civilization grew up where it was quite warm, around the Mediterranean, the Middle East, India, China, and warm areas of Central/South America. If flourished where grain grew, and could be shipped and stored. It was only when fossil fuels came on the scene that cold areas caught up and passed the moderately warm areas. Without fossil fuels, cold areas cannot support very much life. They can’t support very big businesses.

      If we go back to being hunter-gatherers, the very warm, wet areas are likely to do best. Root crops will be very important.

      • yup

        the Inuit never built cities, or invaded south

      • Agamemnon says:

        Yup. Ok my time /region frame is very narrow.
        Just saying a lot of people died during these heat waves and apartments high rises would be unbearable with out AC.
        My main pt was that growth should have been limited (I know even that’s crazy: does that violate a boom/bust principal?
        Yes AC is lower priority. (Can we ration electricity per house hold?
        Yes & hot is better than cold which is also ironic given that we’re entering a grand solar minimum(I know I thought that was crazy too)

      • Bill Chaffee says:

        The highest overnight low is reported to be 108 F. That area would depopulate without air conditioning. But what happens if there’s a power failure.

        • in the equatorial region, clothes arent necessary and food falls off trees–hence garden of eden stories

          move north/south and you have to steal energy from other species–ie fur and meat

          • JesseJames says:

            Papau New Guinea is fabulous. Walk along the coast…pick up delicious Mangos, pick up or knock down coconuts…use the cut tree stumps made into spikes that are all along the coast to split them open. Enjoy the delicious fruit and fresh coconut milk. Catch a fish or two in the ocean in your hollowed out canoe. Pick some eggs from your chickens, grow you pig.

            These people will survive BAU…well, at least for a while.

  46. CTG says:

    Let us talk about financial collapsed. It happened on Friday night . Links can be obtained from ZH since posting too many links here will cause this comment to be held back.

    1. Truss’ government propose/implemented a tax cut causing the Sterling to drop and interest rates on Gilts to go up. The drop in Sterling is quite dramatic at 3%+ against a irrelevant currency like MYR (my Malaysian Ringgit)

    2. Michael posted that banks in UK are planning for lockdown/shutdown/blackouts.

    3. Interest goes up. Mortgages goes up instantly but not the savings rate (maybe not at all). Even in savings interest rate goes up, it has no immediate relief.

    4. UK government needs a lot of money for price caps (not sure if it is implemented) on energy.

    5. Sterling going down makes it very expensive since energy is not priced in Sterling.

    6. There are riots in UK, cost of living will go up higher since UK has to import a lot of its food and daily necessities. As UK does not have much physical products to export , thus, it does not gain much from cheaper currency. Anyway, even if it does, disastrous economic situation worldwide means that people will spend less and the positive impact does not come in earlier than the negative impact of devalued currency.

    7. UK is an important hub worldwide for financial supply chain.

    8. UK has no gas storage and has to buy electricity from Continental Europe. Continental Europe says they have a severe shortage of electricity as well.

    9. EU MAY implement ban on energy derivatives. We have seen this story played out before.

    • Things are definitely not going well:

      U.S. benchmark WTI traded at $78.91 a barrel, sliding 5.5%. WTI hadn’t been below $80 intraday since Jan. 11.

      Global crude benchmark Brent declined 4.8% to trade at $85.21 a barrel.

      US stock markets are down again. Dow is at a “Bear Market Threshold.”

    • MM says:

      Anybody importing something into the UK through the mountain of paperwork required is a madman.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      good stuff, CTG, thanks for raising this topic.

      what happened in the UK on Friday could be world changing.

      GBP down to $1.08, was $1.15 a couple weeks ago. Euro dragged down to $0.96. UK 10 year bonds spiked to 3.80 %.

      US dollar index DXY up to 113, a 22 year high.

      none of that is all that terrible for the UK, bad but not deadly.


      that was Friday afternoon, most of the world’s markets were closing for the weekend.

      what about Monday?


      yes, that’s right, I grabbed my Doomer hat from the closet.

      GBP could easily plunge much further, probably below the value of the Euro.

      how will world markets react?

      and, by Wednesday, Russia should be adding a few new oblasts to its territory, and will be obligated to defend this new territory after the citizens finish voting to join Russia.

      ESCALATION of the Ukrainian war?

      next week is looking to be WILD.


      are we not entertained yet?

      and it’s not even Q4, which should be worse than Q3.

      does IC have enough resilience to make it through next week?

      I think so, but then who knows?

      who cares?

      • CTG says:

        who cares?

        Yup…. who cares? At this late stage of the game, I don’t care if you are pro or anti anything – vax, Putin, Ukraine, sports, etc.

        It does not matter a single at all….

        Think of all the sheep that cared about the above…

        Like davidinabillionyears : Carpe diem !

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I keep the bolts for the high powered rifles in a safe… do I take them out on monday…

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Locked and Loaded now

    • CTG says:

      Let me add in a few more points on the DESTABILIZATION of the financial world

      1. Italian election. It does not matter if Meloni is a puppet. Financial world does not like uncertainties (although they don’t mind lies or make-believe reality). https://www.zerohedge.com/political/eu-commission-president-threatens-italy-eve-election-says-brussels-has-tools-if-wrong

      2. The potential toppling of CCP (still rumours though)

      2 weeks to flatten earth

  47. Mirror on the wall says:

    A brand new major archaeogenetics paper on the continental ancestry of post-Roman Britain has been published in Nature. It is collaboratively produced by experts at dozens of universities in Britain, Europe and USA, including some of the most prestigious names in the field like David Reich. It finds substantial migrations into England first from Germany during the Early Middle Ages and then from France.

    The proportion of Late Iron Age British ancestry in present-day England ranges from 11% to 57% depending on the region. (I did say back at the new year that major post-Iron Age ancestry would be found in England, as suggested by the altered levels of Anatolian Neolithic ancestry in England between the Iron Age and now. Some may remember the paper on the earlier 50% genetic turn over in England from France during the Middle to Late Bronze Age.)

    “We estimate that the ancestry of the present-day English ranges between 25% and 47% England EMA CNE-like [early middle ages continental north European], 11% and 57% England LIA-like [late iron age] and 14% and 43% France IA-like [iron age]. There are substantial genetic differences between English regions.”

    I have selected some key numerical passages for both your and my convenience, but the entire paper is of interest.

    > The Anglo-Saxon migration and the formation of the early English gene pool

    …. Here we study genome-wide ancient DNA from 460 medieval northwestern Europeans—including 278 individuals from England—alongside archaeological data, to infer contemporary population dynamics. We identify a substantial increase of continental northern European ancestry in early medieval England, which is closely related to the early medieval and present-day inhabitants of Germany and Denmark, implying large-scale substantial migration across the North Sea into Britain during the Early Middle Ages. As a result, the individuals who we analysed from eastern England derived up to 76% of their ancestry from the continental North Sea zone, albeit with substantial regional variation and heterogeneity within sites.

    …. In contrast to these previous periods, the majority of the early medieval individuals from England in our sample derive either all or a large fraction of their ancestry from continental northern Europe, with CNE ancestry of 76 ± 2% on average. Although CNE ancestry is predominant in central and eastern England, it is much less prevalent in the south and southwest of England, and absent in the one site that we analysed from Ireland.

    …. Consistently, England EMA CNE and medieval individuals from Lower Saxony exhibit almost identical genetic affinities and ancestry components…. Together, this suggests that they are likely derived from the same source population.

    …. Using this model [ancient DNA], we detected an average of 86 ± 2% ancestry from Lower Saxony across all early medieval sites in England, only slightly higher than the 76 ± 2% estimated using present-day source populations and supervised ADMIXTURE. At a regional scale, we observed more ancestry from Lower Saxony in eastern England than in the southwest, consistent with ancestry arriving from the east, either in one event or over a continuous time period.

    …. Overall, haplogroups absent in Bronze and Iron Age England represent at least 73 ± 4% of the Y chromosomes in our early medieval English sample, mirroring the turnover estimates from autosomal data. Similarly, mitochondrial genomes show evidence of female lineage population turnover from regions bordering the North Sea.

    …. Although the most prominent signal of admixture in early medieval England is the rise in ancestry related to medieval and modern continental northern Europe, we found that several English sites include genomes that could not be explained as products of admixture between the two hypothesized ancestral gene pools—England IA or LowerSaxony EMA—using qpAdm57. Instead, these genomes have additional continental western and southern European ancestry. This ancestry is genetically very similar to Iron Age genomes from France5,6 (France IA). The majority of this French Iron Age-derived ancestry is found in early medieval southeastern England, namely, at the sites of Apple Down, Eastry, Dover Buckland and Rookery Hill, where it constitutes up to 51% of the ancestry identified.

    …. By contrast, for all present-day English samples the simple two-way admixture model (England LIA + England EMA CNE) fails. By extending our model to a three-way with added France IA as a third component, we now obtain fitting models. We estimate that the ancestry of the present-day English ranges between 25% and 47% England EMA CNE-like, 11% and 57% England LIA-like and 14% and 43% France IA-like. There are substantial genetic differences between English regions, with less ancient continental ancestry (England EMA CNE or France IA related) evident in southwestern and northwestern England as well as along the Welsh borders. By contrast, we saw peaks in CNE-like ancestry of up to 47% for southeastern, eastern and central England, especially Sussex, the East Midlands and East Anglia. We found substantial France IA ancestry only in England, but not in Wales, Scotland or Ireland, following an east-to-west cline in Britain, accounting for as much as 43% of the ancestry in East Anglia.

    …. Our three-way population model for present-day England supports a view of post-Roman English genetic history as punctuated by gene flow processes from at least two major sources: first, the attested arrival of CNE ancestry during the Early Middle Ages from northern Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark, and second, the arrival of ancestry related to France IA. Although we cannot precisely date the order of those arrivals, at least substantial amounts of France IA-related ancestry seem to be absent in northern and eastern England during the Early Middle Ages and therefore must have arrived there subsequently. In other parts of England, however, it may have entered together with CNE ancestry or even earlier.


  48. Craig says:

    This song gives me hope that the young can see what’s going on

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