Ramping Up Renewables Can’t Provide Enough Heat Energy in Winter

We usually don’t think about the wonderful service fossil fuels provide in terms of being a store of heat energy for winter, the time when there is a greater need for heat energy. Figure 1 shows dramatically how, in the US, the residential usage of heating fuels spikes during the winter months.

Figure 1. US residential use of energy, based on EIA data. The category “Natural Gas, etc.” includes all fuels bought directly by households and burned. This is primarily natural gas, but also includes small amounts of propane and diesel burned as heating oil. Wood chips or other commercial wood purchased to be burned is also in this category.

Solar energy is most abundantly available in the May-June-July period, making it a poor candidate for fixing the problem of the need for winter heat.

Figure 2. California solar electricity production by month through June 30, 2022, based on EIA data. Amounts are for utility scale and small scale solar combined.

In some ways, the lack of availability of fuels for winter is a canary in the coal mine regarding future energy shortages. People have been concerned about oil shortages, but winter fuel shortages are, in many ways, just as bad. They can result in people “freezing in the dark.”

In this post, I will look at some of the issues involved.

[1] Batteries are suitable for fine-tuning the precise time during a 24-hour period solar electricity is used. They cannot be scaled up to store solar energy from summer to winter.

In today’s world, batteries can be used to delay the use of solar electricity for at most a few hours. In exceptional situations, perhaps the holding period can be increased to a few days.

California is known both for its high level of battery storage and its high level of renewables. These renewables include both solar and wind energy, plus smaller amounts of electricity generated in geothermal plants and electricity generated by burning biomass. The problem encountered is that the electricity generated by solar panels tends to start and end too early in the day, relative to when citizens want to use this electricity. After citizens return home after work, they would like to cook their dinners and use their air conditioning, leading to considerable demand after the sun sets.

Figure 3. Illustration by Inside Climate News showing the combination of resources utilized during July 9, 2022, which was a day of peak electricity consumption. Imports refer to electricity purchased from outside the State of California.

Figure 3 illustrates how batteries in combination with hydroelectric generation (hydro) are used to save electricity generation from early in the day for use in the evening hours. While battery use is suitable for fine tuning exactly when, during a 24-hour period, solar energy will be used, the quantity of batteries cannot be ramped up sufficiently to save electricity from summer to winter. The world would run out of battery-making materials, if nothing else.

[2] Ramping up hydro is not a solution to our problem of inadequate energy for heat in winter.

One problem is that, in long-industrialized economies, hydro capabilities were built out years ago.

Figure 4. Annual hydro generation based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

It is difficult to believe that much more buildout is available in these countries.

Another issue is that hydro tends to be quite variable from year to year, even over an area as large as the United States, as shown in Figure 4 above. When the variability is viewed over a smaller area, the year-to-year variability is even higher, as illustrated in Figure 5 below.

Figure 5. Monthly California hydroelectric generation through June 30, 2022, based on EIA data.

The pattern shown reflects peak generation in the spring, when the ice pack is melting. Low generation generally occurs during the winter, when the ice pack is frozen. Thus, hydro tends not be helpful for raising winter energy supplies. A similar pattern tends to happen in other temperate areas.

A third issue is that variability in hydro supply is already causing problems. Norway has recently reported that it may need to limit hydro exports in coming months because water reservoirs are low. Norway’s exports of electricity are used to help balance Europe’s wind and solar electricity. Thus, this issue may lead to yet another energy problem for Europe.

As another example, China reports a severe power crunch in its Sichuan Province, related to low rainfall and high temperatures. Fossil fuel generation is not available to fill the gap.

[3] Wind energy is not a greatly better than hydro and solar, in terms of variability and poor timing of supply.

For example, Europe experienced a power crunch in the third quarter of 2021 related to weak winds. Europe’s largest wind producers (Britain, Germany and France) produced only 14% of their rated capacity during this period, compared with an average of 20% to 26% in previous years. No one had planned for this kind of three-month shortfall.

In 2021, China experienced dry, windless weather, resulting in both its generation from wind and hydro being low. The country found it needed to use rolling blackouts to deal with the situation. This led to traffic lights failing and many families needing to eat candle-lit dinners.

Even viewed on a nationwide basis, US wind generation varies considerably from month to month.

Figure 6. Total US wind electricity generation through June 20, 2022, based on EIA data.

US total wind electricity generation tends to be highest in April or May. This can cause oversupply issues because hydro generation tends to be high about the same time. The demand for electricity tends to be low because of generally mild weather. The result is that even at today’s renewable levels, a wet, windy spring can lead to a situation in which the combination of hydro and wind electricity supply exceeds total local demand for electricity.

[4] As more wind and solar are added to the grid, the challenges and costs become increasingly great.

There are a huge number of technical problems associated with trying to add a large amount of wind and solar energy to the grid. Some of them are outlined in Figure 7.

Figure 7. Introductory slide from a presentation by power engineers shown in this YouTube Video.

One of the issues is torque distortion, especially related to wind energy.

Figure 8. Slide describing torque distortion issues from the same presentation to power engineers as Figure 7. YouTube Video.

There are also many other issues, including some outlined on this Drax website. Wind and solar provide no “inertia” to the system. This makes me wonder whether the grid could even function without a substantial amount of fossil fuel or nuclear generation providing sufficient inertia.

Furthermore, wind and solar tend to make voltage fluctuate, necessitating systems to absorb and discharge something called “reactive power.”

[5] The word “sustainable” has created unrealistic expectations with respect to intermittent wind and solar electricity.

A person in the wind turbine repair industry once told me, “Wind turbines run on a steady supply of replacement parts.” Individual parts may be made to last 20-years, or even longer, but there are so many parts that some are likely to need replacement long before that time. An article in Windpower Engineering says, “Turbine gearboxes are typically given a design life of 20 years, but few make it past the 10-year mark.”

There is also the problem of wind damage, especially in the case of a severe storm.

Figure 9. Hurricane-damaged solar panels in Puerto Rico. Source.

Furthermore, the operational lives for fossil fuel and nuclear generating plants are typically much longer than those for wind and solar. In the US, some nuclear plants have licenses to operate for 60 years. Efforts are underway to extend some licenses to 80 years.

With the short life spans for wind and solar, constant rebuilding of wind turbines and solar generation is necessary, using fossil fuels. Between the rebuilding issue and the need for fossil fuels to maintain the electric grid, the output of wind turbines and solar panels cannot be expected to last any longer than fossil fuel supply.

[6] Energy modeling has led to unrealistic expectations for wind and solar.

Energy models don’t take into account all of the many adjustments to the transmission system that are needed to support wind and solar, and the resulting added costs. Besides the direct cost of the extra transmission required, there is an ongoing need to inspect parts for signs of wear. Brush around the transmission lines also needs to be cut back. If adequate maintenance is not performed, transmission lines can cause fires. Burying transmission lines is sometimes an option, but doing so is expensive, both in energy use and cost.

Energy models also don’t take into account the way wind turbines and solar panels perform in “real life.” In particular, most researchers miss the point that electricity from solar panels cannot be expected to be very helpful for meeting our need for heat energy in winter. If we want to add more summer air conditioning, solar panels can “sort of” support this effort, especially if batteries are also added to help fine tune when, during the 24-hour day, the solar electricity will be utilized. Unfortunately, we don’t have any realistic way of saving the output of solar panels from summer to winter.

It seems to me that supporting air conditioning is a rather frivolous use for what seems to be a dwindling quantity of available energy supply. In my opinion, our first two priorities should be adequate food supply and preventing freezing in the dark in winter. Solar, especially, does nothing for these issues. Wind can be used to pump water for crops and animals. In fact, an ordinary windmill, built 100 years ago, can also be used to provide this type of service.

Because of the intermittency issue, especially the “summer to winter” intermittency issue, wind and solar are not truly replacements for electricity produced by fossil fuels or nuclear. The problem is that most of the current system needs to remain in place, in addition to the renewable energy system. When researchers make cost comparisons, they should be comparing the cost of the intermittent energy, including necessary batteries and grid enhancements with the cost of the fuel saved by operating these devices.

[7] Competitive pricing plans that enable the growth of wind and solar electricity are part of what is pushing a number of areas in the world toward a “freezing-in-the-dark” problem.

In the early days of electricity production, “utility pricing” was generally used. With this approach, vertical integration of electricity supply was encouraged. A utility would make long term contracts with a number of providers and would set prices for customers based on the expected long-term cost of electricity production and distribution. The utility would make certain that transmission lines were properly repaired and would add new generation as needed.

Energy prices of all kinds spiked in the late 1970s. Not long afterward, in an attempt to prevent high electricity prices from causing inflation, a shift in pricing arrangements started taking place. More competition was encouraged, with the new approach called competitive pricing. Vertically integrated groups were broken up. Wholesale electricity prices started varying by time of day, based on which providers were willing to sell their production at the lowest price, for that particular time period. This approach encouraged providers to neglect maintaining their power lines and stop adding more storage capacity. Any kind of overhead expense was discouraged.

In fact, under this arrangement, wind and solar were also given the privilege of “going first.” If too much energy in total was produced, negative rates could result for other providers. This approach was especially harmful for nuclear energy. Nuclear power plants found that their overall price structure was too low. They sometimes closed because of inadequate profitability. New investments in nuclear energy were discouraged, as was proper maintenance. This effect has been especially noticeable in Europe.

Figure 10. Nuclear, wind and solar electricity generated in Europe, based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The result is that about a third of the gain from wind and solar energy has been offset by the decline in nuclear electricity generation. Of course, nuclear is another low-carbon form of electricity. It is a great deal more reliable than wind or solar. It can even help prevent freezing in the dark because it is likely to be available in winter, when more electricity for heating is likely to be needed.

Another issue is that competitive pricing discouraged the building of adequate storage facilities for natural gas. Also, it tended to discourage purchasing natural gas under long term contracts. The thinking went, “Rather than building storage, why not wait until the natural gas is needed, and then purchase it at the market rate?”

Unfortunately, producing natural gas requires long-term investments. Companies producing natural gas operate wells that produce approximately equal amounts year-round. The same pattern of high winter-consumption of natural gas tends to occur almost simultaneously in many Northern Hemisphere areas with cold winters. If the system is going to work, customers need to be purchasing natural gas, year-round, and stowing it away for winter.

Natural gas production has been falling in Europe, as has coal production (not shown), necessitating more imports of replacement fuel, often natural gas.

Figure 11. Natural gas production in Europe, based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

With competitive rating and LNG ships seeming to sell natural gas on an “as needed” basis, there has been a tendency in Europe to overlook the need for long term contracts and additional storage to go with rising natural gas imports. Now, Europe is starting to discover the folly of this approach. Solar is close to worthless for providing electricity in winter; wind cannot be relied upon. It doesn’t ramp up nearly quickly enough, in any reasonable timeframe. The danger is that countries will risk having their citizens freeze in the dark because of inadequate natural gas import availability.

[8] The world is a very long way from producing enough wind and solar to solve its energy problems, especially its need for heat in winter.

The energy supply that the world uses includes much more than electricity. It contains oil and fuels burned directly, such as natural gas. The percentage share of this total energy supply that wind and solar output provides depends on how it is counted. The International Energy Agency treats wind and solar as if they only replace fuel, rather than replacing dispatchable electricity.

Figure 12 Wind and solar generation for a category called “Wind, Solar, etc.” by the IEA. Amounts are for 2020 for Germany, the UK, Australia, Norway, the United States, and Japan. For other groups shown in this chart, the amounts are calculated using 2019 data.

On this basis, the share of total energy provided by the Wind and Solar category is very low, only 2.2% for the world as a whole. Germany comes out highest of the groups analyzed, but even it is replacing only 6.0% of its total energy consumed. It is difficult to imagine how the land and water around Germany could tolerate wind turbines and solar panels being ramped up sufficiently to cover such a shortfall. Other parts of the world are even farther from replacing current energy supplies with wind and solar.

Clearly, we cannot expect wind and solar to ever be ramped up to meet our energy needs, even in combination with hydro.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,845 Responses to Ramping Up Renewables Can’t Provide Enough Heat Energy in Winter

  1. banned says:

    In 2008 the fed stopped financial contagion by printing. No one understands the relationship between ZIRP and contagion better than the fed. If the fed doesnt return to ZIRP its because its time for the great reset.

  2. banned says:

    Well… Biden is not real fond of pipelines. Coincidence I am sure. Only a conspiracy theorist would suspect foul play.

    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/01/biden_3_pipelines_3_disasters.html

    We are just starting to understand thermal expansion related hazards! Maybe NS1 and NS2 suffered sudden catastrophic thermal expansion?

    Coal! Its the new green energy. Lovely low BTU high sulfur brown coal.

  3. kakatoa says:

    Thanks for post Gail. We finished stacking oak into our woodshed on Saturday in preparation for winter.

    Earlier this month CA was able to keep the grid up during a regional heat wave. It appears that PG&E had issues with some of it’s equipment during the heat wave-

    “Forest Service opens criminal investigation into Mosquito Fire’s start, PG&E says in filing”

    https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/fires/article266367576.html

    • According to the article, the Mosquito Fire is a 2022 fire. (Some of us lose track!)

      PG&E officials on Sept. 8 said investigators had placed caution tape around a company transmission pole near the spot where the fire broke out. The utility said it had not noticed anything abnormal at the pole but filed a report with the California Public Utilities Commission.

      Above-ground transmission lines are a never-ending problem, when it comes to starting fires. Putting the transmission lines underground is horribly expensive. I once read a 10 times the cost estimate, but it might be lower–something like 6 times the cost.

      The new legislation sponsored by Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer would greatly add to transmission for intermittent renewables and would indirectly force states that derive no benefit from the transmission line to help pay for them. The whole idea is absurd.

      • kakatoa says:

        The last big fire we experienced was the Caldor fire which was 100% contained last year on Oct 21st. That one was a bit too close for comfort- it was no fun packing up to move with all the smoke in the air wondering if the evacuation warning was going to move to a mandatory evacuation. The cause of that fire is still under investigation. A bomb cyclone drenched the fire zone with loads of rain just before it was noted as being 100% contained.

        The bomb cyclone took out the electric distribution line that serviced our place for about 3 days. We were presently surprised when a thirty dollar check from PG&E was forwarded to us by the USPS. PG&E initiated a program to pay their customers for the inconvenience they experience when targets are missed to restore service. Even more surprising was our getting a climate credit check from PG&E in April. We cashed both checks as PG&E wouldn’t reimburse us for the smart meter we bought back in early 2006.

        Cost allocations are a hot topic in CA these days. PG&E’s Average kWh costs are above 33 cents per kWh:

        Richard McCann
        September 26, 2022 at 11:56 am

        https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2022/09/26/equitable-decarbonization-requires-rate-reform/#comment-87920

        …“One final point: The PG&E rate you’re paying isn’t 25 cents per kWh–it’s currently an average of 33.5 cents for standard rate customers, and PG&E is asking for an increase to 39 cents by 2026.”…

        Under grounding transmission and distribution lines can be very expensive.

  4. What the Russians miscalculated is there is a country in the world which can still mass produce mid-grade weapons which they did not consider.

    South Korea.

    USA was the Arsenal of Democracy in the 1940s.

    Korea is now the Arsenal of Western Capitalism, Wokeness, whatever you want to put in. Korea has become the backbone of the entire NATO defense.

    Poland bought $20 billion worth of Armor from Korea, which will sell mid-grade subs and other toys to countries who don’t need American grade weapons.

    If Russia is defeated, Korea will get some credit for it.

    • I never heard this before.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        It is for Poland’s own defence. It does not seem to be a game changer.

        For comparison, “Russia: tanks: 12,420; armoured vehicles: 30,122; self-propelled artillery: 6,574; towed artillery: 7,571; rocket projectors: 3,391.” (Services dot net)

        > Poland, South Korea Ink $5.7 Billion Main Battle Tank and Howitzer Deal

        Poland has finalized the purchase of main battle tanks and howitzers from South Korea to bolster its defenses amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

        The Polish government signed the $5.76 billion contract, one of Poland’s largest defense orders in recent years, on August 26.

        The agreement includes 180 K2 Black Panther Tanks and 212 K9A1 self-propelled howitzers. The acquisitions are expected to be complete by 2025 and 2026.

        “Later this year, 10 K2 tanks will be delivered to Morąg, and 24 cannon-howitzers will be delivered to the Polish Army. The K9s will go to the artillery regiment in Węgorzewo,” Błaszczak added.

        The deal covers a portion of purchases agreed by Poland and South Korea last month in which 49 FA-50 light combat aircraft were also included.

        https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/08/30/poland-south-korea-tank-howitzer/

  5. I AM THE MOB says:

    Nuclear Blast “simulator” for your area.

    https://outrider.org/nuclear-weapons/interactive/bomb-blast

    • banned says:

      Wrong question. The right question is are you down wind from a nuclear power plant. If you are within blast radius your toast. The radiation from nuclear weapons is survivable. The radiation from multiple nuclear power plant meltdowns and possible spent fuel fire is not. Half life 24 million years. Third world has a chance. First world not so much.

      Chances are most all nuclear power plants will lose containment from EMP. Is that for sure? Who knows. Its a good guess they will. The reactors shut down very fast. The coolant pumps have to be kept running a long time. Is the two weeks of diesel enough for the generators to do so? A better question is will the pumps and control electronics and valving be operable after a EMP? Who knows. These are big questions

      https://www.askaprepper.com/can-a-nuclear-plant-shutdown-safely-after-an-emp/

      But who knows. You stay inside for as long as you can. If you have no way to measure radiation levels (i dont) then you dont know how long. At some point you are going to have to venture out. Grid will be down and never come back up. Non military will probably be in a communication blackout as far as the state of the world. Maybe some SW from South America. Good to hablo espanol.

      • Modelers never thought of all of the bad situations that might be ahead when they designed nuclear generating plants. This is at least part of the reason that there are so many questions about what the future will be like. They imagined a world where grid electricity would be available forever, there would be no EMPs or direct hits by bombs, and diesel would readily be available if electricity was not. This isn’t the real world.

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    While we are on the subject of the strange, apparent attack on gas pipelines that keep Europe warm.

    Here is Joe Biden promising (if Russia crosses over into the Ukraine with troops and tanks) …

    “…there will no longer be a nordstream 2 (pipeline), we will bring an end to it”.

    He said this on the 7th of February 2022 on ABC News.

    Link below 👇🏻https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662

    • drb753 says:

      As you correctly suggest this is major. Effectively, the USA is waging war against Germany.

      • Germany is the big manufacturer in Europe. It has been pulling the rest of the EU along.

        • cassandraclub says:

          If the German industry comes to a halt, there will be lots of unemployed Germans. How will they react to all the immigrants from Syria, Afghanistan and Ukraine?

          • MM says:

            I bet they invite them under their blankets to warm each other.
            In Austria I met quite a few women that married refugees “on paper” to give them entry to the country (bed).
            I did not dig too deep into this but a married man can claim some rights..

            Actually by chance I came into pretty romantic contact wit a nice lady in Vienna but in the end she said that she is married to a Syrian.
            I would say, if I had a marriage “on paper” I would not bother but for her it was out of the cards.

            I mean, I could also make this shit up in my head of course.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Or it’s all theatre… you will never know. It’s impossible to know what is going on — particularly when we have an MSM that is 100% captured by the Elders and has ZERO interest in reporting the truth.

        And why would they – nobody can handle the truth – they love theatre!

    • Oddys says:

      There is already a flurry of speculations. Funny enough there are NO speculations that this could be a cover-up for a lack of gas. People prefer to speculate about just anything, including nuclear war, but NOT about lack of oil and gas. That is taboo.

  7. Pingback: California Is No Model, So Why Does New York Still Mimic It?

  8. Student says:

    (‘Marittime Executive’)

    1) Gas leak on the 2 Nord Stream pipelines + 2) Russian and Chinese military ships close to Aleutian islands (Alaska jurisdiction)

    Large Gas Leak From Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Prompts Warning to Shipping.
    German authorities believe a “targeted attack” is a possibility
    gazpromContractors for Gazprom prepare to make the final weld on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, September 2021 (Gazprom)
    PUBLISHED SEP 26, 2022 8:31 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE
    Danish authorities have detected a leak from the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline off the island of Bornholm and have issued a warning to shipping to stay clear.
    For reasons not currently known, the pressure in both the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines dropped sharply overnight. Authorities in Germany, which hosts the receiving terminals for both lines, are investigating the situation as a possible intentional act. Given that both lines have gone down, “we can’t imagine a scenario that isn’t a targeted attack,” an individual familiar with the German government’s concerns told Tagesspiegel. “Everything speaks against a coincidence.”

    https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/large-gas-leak-from-nord-stream-2-pipeline-prompts-warning-to-shipping

    U.S. Coast Guard Spots Russian and Chinese Warships Off Aleutians
    kiskaA crewmember aboard Kimball watches a Chinese PLA Navy vessel off Kiska (USCG)
    PUBLISHED SEP 26, 2022 7:20 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE
    Last week, a U.S. Coast Guard cutter crew spotted a Chinese cruiser off the coast of Kiska, an uninhabited island in the western Aleutian chain. It turned out to be accompanied by multiple Chinese and Russian naval vessels, all operating inside the U.S. exclusive economic zone.

    https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/u-s-coast-guard-spots-russian-and-chinese-warships-off-aleutians

    • D. Stevens says:

      I thought the NS2 was completed but not in use and NS1 was running at about 20% capacity? I’m surprised to learn NS2 was pressured with gas. Was gas flowing to the EU via NS2 or is it kept pressured to monitor for leaks but no continuous flow? Hopefully someone can explain what the status of these pipelines was and what it is now. I’m not seeing much in the news about this but it seems like a big deal? Maybe it’s no biggie? Are there other pipelines over land which are still providing energy to EU or are they limited to shipping it in?

      • MM says:

        Actually NS2 never went online (why should there be pressure?) and NS1 flow was effectively 0 after the last inspection where due to unexpected oil leaks inside the turbine the operation was halted for security reasons. Nobody was there to look into it. I think that was sept 2.
        NS2 pressurized could be a technical thing to keep it empty but it would cost quite some energy to keep a constant 300 bar pressure against a closed valve.

        Could be that somebody wanted to open exactly this can of worms here….
        As Fast says: Is the Ukey war real ?

        Of course we will never see any worm here.

        • I hadn’t thought about the difficulty of maintaining an empty Nord Stream 2 line, which is underwater in quite a bit of its journey.

        • Withnail says:

          The pipeline can’t be empty, it would have to have gas in it.

          • MM says:

            I read it is 177 million m3 of gas.
            This could be true if gas was for delivery.
            This is not true if the pipeline is in “pre-operational mode” still.
            Then there would be Nitrogen in the pipelines as this is a common practice.

            Have you rented a heli to check the bubbles?
            I assume No.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I have not flown over the bubble so cannot confirm what the MSM is telling me it is …

              And the MSM lies all the time … as do governments …

              Therefore I have no idea if that pipeline has been damaged.

              Unlike the peak oil story — it’s quite difficult to confirm the damaged pipe story… where would you start?

    • We are dealing with nations that are becoming more and more warlike.

      The US can’t fight wars on multiple fronts – Taiwan, Ukraine, Aleutian Islands, Middle East.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      This could all be fake…

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    A BRITISH doctor has given his first-hand account of working under the Government’s Covid response saying he is a victim of “moral injury” – describing the emotional impact on those forced to violate ethical principles in their day to day work.

    The doctor discusses the “inhumane infection control measures” in NHS hospitals, the difficulties of working while constantly masked and how patients “did not receive the care they would ordinarily have had”.

    The doctor has requested to remain anonymous.

    https://uncut.substack.com/p/nhs-were-forced-to-violate-ethical

    • One of the big issues has been ” isolating ourselves from our patients.” Part of this is needing to wear masks all the time. Also, not seeing patients in person.

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/234156495217035/

    Renee Ostrander
    Nurse here in the US… 2 of our gastroenterologists are diagnosing aggressive pancreatic cancer at an alarming rate…one said she normally sees this 2-3 times a year. This week alone she has seen 5 stage 4. The other dr practices at 2 separate hospitals and has seen 3 at each hospital last week alone…they are realizing something is very wrong but not admitting it’s the juice yet…😥😥

    Judith Graf
    Just received some dreadful news from overseas: childhood friend (our mothers were pregnant at the same time!) had to take the poison (she is a GP) and after the 3rd instalment she developed first rashes, then within a month a couple of purulent abscesses on her privates. When they operated on her, it was discovered that she also has anal cancer. We are talking about a very healthy individual! This all happened about a month ago, I have received the phone call from her daughter just now, that she died last night. I am crying and can’t deal with all this. Wherever I look it is death and suffering. When will this stop??

    Samantha Milligan
    My Husbands co-worker got Mio after the first juice, 24 year old wife had a stroke as well after her first. They have two kids under 3, they have survived so far… still getting juiced 🤦‍♀️ Another coworker there has been ill and aged ever since… he regrets it
    Cousin had a seizure and now seems to be having severe psychological issues … had to quit his job

    MIL has vision issues now after 2 , wont get more, we woke her up.

    My Mom had a lump found … apparently its benign but I am scared.
    Friends hair is falling out like crazy, she is not connecting the dots
    Lots of coughing / bronchial issues / Big C from people I know have had 2+
    Saw a woman collapsed on the sidewalk and a car that was in the middle of the road … cant say for sure they drank but I always wonder now
    Luckily no ☠️ close to me yet but I am bracing myself … so sorry to everyone here 🙁
    Prayers to everyone 💕

    • hillcountry says:

      This one opens up another can of worms.

      Vaccine
      2021 Dec 8;39(50):7321-7331
      Epub 2021 Sep 27.

      Recombinant BCGs for tuberculosis and bladder cancer
      PMID: 34593271
      Abstract
      Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is an attenuated live strain of Mycobacterium bovis. It may be the most widely used vaccine in human history and is the only licensed human tuberculosis (TB) vaccine available. Despite its excellent safety history, a century of use in global vaccination programs, and its significant contribution to reducing TB mortality among children, the efficacy of BCG continues to be disputed due to its incomplete protection against pulmonary TB in adults. Still vaccines offer the best chance to contain the ongoing spread of multi-drug resistance TB and disease dissemination. The development of improved vaccines against TB therefore remains a high global priority. Interestingly, recent studies indicate that genetically modified BCG, or administration of existing BCG through alternate routes, or revaccination, offers improved protection, suggesting that BCG is well poised to make a comeback.

      Intravesical BCG is also the only approved microbial immunotherapy for any form of cancer, and is the first-line therapy for treatment-naïve non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMBIC), which represents a majority of the new bladder cancer cases diagnosed. However, almost a third of patients with NMIBC are either BCG unresponsive or have tumor recurrence, leading to a higher risk of disease progression. With very few advances in intravesical therapy over the past two decades for early-stage disease, and a limited pipeline of therapeutics in Phase 3 or late Phase 2 development, there is a major unmet need for improved intravesical therapies for NMIBC.

      Indeed, genetically modified candidate BCG vaccines engineered to express molecules that confer stronger protection against pulmonary TB or induce potent anti-tumor immunity in NMIBC have shown promise in both pre-clinical and clinical settings. This review discusses the development of second generation, genetically modified BCG candidates as TB vaccines and as anti-tumor adjuvant therapy for NMIBC.

    • Until I see a big spike in deaths from cancer, I tend to disbelieve these reports of a big spike in cancer cases. There are always a lot of cancer cases.

  11. Student says:

    (Handelsblatt)

    from live news, automatic translation.

    “Report: Nord Stream pipelines could be damaged by attacks – Danish authority: a total of three leaks on Nord Stream pipelines.

    27.09.2022 – 10:06
    Anna Kipnis
    Danish authorities have discovered a total of three leaks on Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. The Danish Energy Authority announced Tuesday that there were reports of two leaks on Nord Stream 1 northeast of Bornholm Island in the Baltic Sea and one on Nord Stream 2 southeast of the island. In the case of Nord Stream 1, one leak is in Danish and the other in Swedish waters, in the case of Nord Stream 2 in Danish.
    Because of the incidents, the authority has asked the state-owned company Energinet to be especially vigilant about the safety of its facilities. Gas line outages are extremely rare, which is why there are reasons to raise the so-called readiness level in the gas and electricity sectors to the second highest “orange” level, the energy agency writes. Energinet is responsible for the overall operation of the electricity and gas system in Denmark.
    Since none of the pipelines were in operation, none of the incidents are currently relevant to the gas supply in Europe and Denmark. It is too early to say anything about the causes.”

    https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/energie-bericht-nord-stream-pipelines-womoeglich-durch-anschlaege-beschaedigt-daenische-behoerde-insgesamt-drei-lecks-an-nord-stream-leitungen/28616386.html

    • So, there were leaks, no doubt well before the blasts.

      These pipelines were costly for Russia to maintain, especially if they are not selling natural gas before the blasts. If they had no intention of using them in the future, blowing them up would save Russia some ongoing maintenance costs.

    • Children have been falling further and further behind in school. I expect that different countries have different policies on repeating a grade. It seems like in the US, repeating a grade is less common. The child might feel bad. He or she might end up bigger than others in the same class, the following year.

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    It’s coming apart at the seams now…

    https://summit.news/2022/09/26/major-london-store-gives-up-on-calling-police-to-catch-shoplifters/

    Between 200,000 and 300,000 shoplifting offences go unpunished every year, while untold thousands more are never even reported.

    Citing a lack of resources, police departments across the UK have stopped responding to or investigating some crimes, with their officers presumably being more interested in performing dance routines at gay pride parades.

    Car theft in London has effectively been decriminalized, with just 277 out of 55,000 offences being solved by Scotland Yard, a 0.5% success rate.

    Back in 2015, the head of the National Police Chiefs’ Council said that due to a lack of resources, officers would be unable to attend some burglaries. In 2018, it was revealed that two thirds of burglaries are not even investigated.

    Despite many crimes going unsolved, there are still plenty of resources available to prosecute people for saying offensive things or making edgy social media posts.

    Back in June, a man was jailed for 20 weeks for the ‘crime’ of posting offensive George Floyd memes in private WhatsApp and Facebook group chats.

    In 2017, it was reported that British police had arrested 3,395 people for ‘offensive online comments’ in the space of a year.

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    UK CARDIOLOGIST DR ASEEM MALHOTRA CALLS FOR THE IMMEDIATE SUSPENSION OF MRNA VACCINES IN HIS NEW PAPER IN THE JOURNAL OF INSULIN RESISTANCE

    Writing in the Journal of Insulin Resistance, one of the UK’s most eminent Consultant Cardiologists Dr. Malhotra, who was one of the first to take 2 doses of the vaccine and promote it on ‘Good Morning Britain’ says since the rollout of the vaccine the evidence of its effectiveness and rates of adverse events have changed.

    In a 2 part paper – “Curing the pandemic of misinformation on COVID-19 mRNA vaccines through real evidence-based medicine,” data reveals that in the non-elderly population, the number needed to vaccinate to prevent one death from CV-19 runs into thousands and that re-analysis of randomised controlled trial data that led to approval of the vaccines for Pfizer & Moderna, suggests greater risk of a serious adverse event from the vax than to be hospitalised with Covid-19.

    https://rumble.com/v1lngzt-september-26-2022.html

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    NEW JAMA STUDY PROVES CONCLUSIVELY FOR THE FIRST TIME THAT MRNA AND LIPID NANOPARTICLES FROM A VACCINTED MOTHER TRAVEL THROUGH HER BREAST MILK TO THE FEEDING INFANT

    At least in the first 48 hours post the mother receiving an mRNA injection.

    The authors amazingly concluded that it was safe for the feeding infant…especially after the first 48 hours post injection.

    They made no study of the cummulative dose of mRNA received by the suckling infant in the first 48 hrs (and beyond?) post maternal injection.

    WHACK…that’s the sound of another “conspiracy theory” hitting the deck

    https://archive.ph/TBtt6

  15. hillcountry says:

    And don’t forget this one.

    International Journal of Molecular Science
    2022 Jan
    PMID: 35054958

    The Veterinary Anti-Parasitic Selamectin Is a Novel Inhibitor of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis DprE1 Enzyme

    • hillcountry says:

      curious that both the Avermectins and Rifampicin were derived from soil bacteria. Maybe there’s something about bacterial warfare that went on over the eons? Hmmm… just read something about Mycobacterium Tuberculosis and soil.

      New Microbes New Infections
      2021 Nov
      PMID: 34621525

      Molecular detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis sensu stricto in the soil of Niger

      Abstract
      Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) complex is comprising of pathogenic mycobacteria responsible for human and animal tuberculosis, a major public health problem in Niger. Although infected individuals are paramount sources of contamination, nevertheless alternative, neglected sources may play some role in minority forms of the infection. Accordingly, we investigated the presence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex in soil samples in Niger. A total of 103 soil samples were collected in six different areas in Niger in October and November 2018 and April and May 2020 from residential areas of tuberculosis patients.

      Screening PCR targeting M. tuberculosis complex CRISPR-Csm4 and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra assay were applied to detect the M. tuberculosis complex. M. tuberculosis DNA was positively detected in five of 103 (5/103; 4.8%) soil samples (Dosso: one sample, Zinder: one sample and Niamey: three samples) using the CRISPR-Csm4 system. CRISPR-Csm4 gene sequence identified four M. tuberculosis sensu stricto (may be lineages 1, 3 or 4) and one M. tuberculosis L2 lineage (Beijing). Moreover, the five positive samples were confirmed by Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra assay as rifampicin-susceptible M. tuberculosis complex strains. However, culture remained negative after 42 days.

      In this study, we announced for the first time the presence of M. tuberculosis sensu stricto in the soil of Niger. Moreover, these detected lineages were identical to the dominant M. tuberculosis lineages in patients. The presence of common lineages of M. tuberculosis between the soil and human highlight the risk of transmission from the soil to human.

      • Thierry says:

        That reminds me that Pettenkofer said something similar about Cholera. The “modern” science dismissed it abruptly because it did not suit the theories of Koch.

        • hillcountry says:

          Thierry – Broxmeyer covers quite a bit of the Koch story in his book Alzheimer’s Disease – How Its Bacterial Cause Was Found And Then Discarded.

          Excerpt from pages 8 & 9:
          “Neither Blocq, Marinescu, nor Oskar Fisher were bacteriologists, but Victor Babes was. Born in Vienna, Babes at one point worked with Robert Koch in Berlin but split with him over Koch’s insistence that the only form real tuberculosis could take was its bacillary form. Babes, who also worked with Pasteur, knew better. Babes was fully aware of the void that Koch, the discoverer of tuberculosis, had purposely left for future scientists such as Oskar Fischer in validating forms such as the filamentous Streptothrix-like tuberculosis.

          Yet subsequently, bacteriologists Vera and Rettger of Yale openly contradicted Koch. Vera wrote, “The single point on which all investigators have agreed is that the Koch [tubercular] bacillus does not always manifest itself in the classical rod shape. While at times and most commonly the organism appears as a granular rod, coccoid bodies, filaments and clubs are not rare.”

          And just ten years before Oskar Fischer found Actinomycosis-like forms in Alzheimer’s cerebral plaque, Babes and immunologist Levaditi reported in “On the Actinomycotic Shape of the Tuberculous Bacilli” that typical Actinomyces-like clusters [Drusen] with clubs appeared in the tissue of rabbits inoculated with tubercle bacilli beneath the dura mater of their brains. Once introduced into the brain this way, reported Babes, TB bacilli not only branched out like the Actinomycosis such as Streptothrix, but they developed rosettes that were identical to the “drusen” that Oskar Fischer spotted in Alzheimer’s plaque.”

        • hillcountry says:

          Here’s a sort of Cliff’s Notes history by Broxmeyer that I just ran across on a search, with an introduction by Alan Cantwell MD, focused on the search for and the documentation of the ‘cancer microbe’ going way back. I’ve had a copy of Lida Mattman’s textbook Stealth Pathogens for about ten years and it was hard to put it down once page-after-page of hers and other’s discoveries reveal what’s been shoved under the rug.

          http://whale.to/cancer/broxmeyer.html

      • MM says:

        Tuberculosis actually is a Bacteria humans live quite well with because it just eats the worst junk in our bodies, namely cancer.

        With masking and distancing and vaccinating and so on we changed the human/earth holobiont so that a lot of things have come into motion.

        “You should not mess with a thing you do not understand”

  16. hillcountry says:

    Annals of Palliative Med
    2022 Aug
    Early pregnancy combined with acute hematogenous disseminated pulmonary tuberculosis leading to stillbirth: a case report

    Tuberculosis (TB) is a common infectious disease among women of childbearing age, with the incidence of pregnancy with tuberculosis (PWT) is approximately 5-7%. PWT has a serious impact on pregnant women, fetuses and infants, and is also one of the main causes of maternal and infant mortality

  17. hillcountry says:

    How interesting. Lawrence Broxmeyer MD could give much insight here.

    World Journal of Virology
    2022 Mar 25

    Rifampicin for COVID-19

    Careful analysis of the COVID-19 clinical characteristics and computed tomography scans indicates that the pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacterial disease, in which azithromycin and rifampicin are among first line treatment options, seems to share a striking analogy with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia,

    • hillcountry says:

      from Wikipedia:

      In 1957, a soil sample from a pine forest on the French Riviera was brought for analysis to the Lepetit Pharmaceuticals research lab in Milan, Italy. There, a research group headed by Piero Sensi and Maria Teresa Timbal discovered a new bacterium.

      This new species produced a new class of molecules with antibiotic activity.

      Because Sensi, Timbal and the researchers were particularly fond of the French crime story Rififi (about a jewel heist and rival gangs), they decided to call these compounds rifamycins. After two years of attempts to obtain more stable semisynthetic products, a new molecule with high efficacy and good tolerability was produced in 1965 and was named rifampicin. Rifampicin was first sold in Italy in 1968 and was approved by the FDA in 1971.

  18. Lastcall says:

    Its been so easy so far…

    ‘In light of the current (intentional) and terrible energy debacle in Germany and England as the northern hemisphere limps toward a grand solar minimum winter hijacked by the delusion of ‘climate change’™, the proclamations from French President Macron that the time of abundance is at an end and from the Belgian Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, that “the next 5 to 10 winters will be difficult,” the EU and wider global political farce are preparing for the next orchestrated theatrical performance of crisis followed by a seguing dance into normalisation. The chaotic drama is being prepared to usher in the corporate globalist salvation a vice like BigTech mediated tyranny, a literal diabolical ‘Transformation’.

    ‘Currently we are witnessing State perfidy and open warfare against its own citizens. Attacks on the citizens began with ‘lock downs’ of the COVID debacle and continue today with mandated jabs and masking. A deeper assault has been instigated upon the provision and distribution of food, upon agriculture and fresh water, upon supply chains, upon energy, upon societal cohesion and trust, upon culture customs and traditions, and upon values. The assaults have been relentless and appear poised to translate into the digital world..

    ‘All about “changing the perspective of reality,” the mass conditioning is enabled and facilitated by the propaganda arm of a sycophantic and compliant State media. The first step in changing perspective is known as demoralisation, next comes destabilisation, followed by the crisis stage, and then finally comes normalisation, the promise of a fix, all things better, of course never, ever delivered under tyranny.’

    https://drlatusdextro.substack.com/p/in-plain-sight

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Isn’t it amazing how even though they know k change is nonsense (otherwise they’d ban private jets instead of cows)… they still say these things…

      That’s cuz…

      It’s all theatre… it’s all fake

      Nobody wants the truth – that’s the politicians play along.

      It’s like when a fat f789 goes to his doctor feeling light headed and the doctor says — your BP is dangerously high … if you don’t stop laying on the sofa after work for 5 hours watching Dancing with Stars reruns and stuffing your face with Doritos and multiple colas… you’ll need to control this with meds.

      The fat f789 does not want to hear the truth — he will dismiss it and say — well then — let’s just go with the meds now to safe me having to come for another appointment.

      Humans are vile Stoopid F789 Faces.

      And deserve to be treated like vile Stooopid F789 Faces.

      Democracy hahahahahahahaahahahahahahaha OMG

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    Nothing about the imminent collapse:

    https://www.ft.com/

    https://www.wsj.com/

    Just more of the usual BS from the PR Team

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    Israeli study links COVID vaccines to 25% increase in cardiac arrest, both males & females, based on data from emergency services. COVID infection itself NOT linked to significant increase

    “cardiac arrest & acute coronary syndrome EMS calls in the 16–39-year-old population” 2019 & 2021; enabled comparison to baseline (pre-COVID epidemic) to COVID epidemic without vaccine to vaccine

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/israeli-study-links-covid-vaccines

  21. Fast Eddy says:

    https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/jama-vaccine-shedding-in-breast-milk/comments

    Colin Thomson
    49 min ago
    Pinned
    On a side note I’ve worked in a hospital for 15 years. The last 6-9 months the maternity deparment has been insane. What was once a weekly or monthly incident is now happenning every day or far more often. The number of women who go into labour then the alert goes out as something went wrong and she is pushed through into theatre and the docs are calling for blood. Is has happened way to often.

    I don’t know any stats for how many babies are lost or how many are born with problems I just know what I’ve seen. I do know that searching the papers for news about strange diseases in new borns gives plenty results for the last year.

    Alanna
    1 hr ago
    ·
    edited 1 hr ago
    Liked by Igor Chudov
    A perfectly healthy breast fed NZ baby aged 5 weeks died within a few days of her mother receiving the first pfizer jab. The baby had a massive gastrointestinal bleed resulting in death. This was mid 2021. We alerted the appropriate people but were told we were crazy to connect it. Many deaths since. Lists are being kept separate to the NZ government lists and one day justice will be served.

    • Rodster says:

      Of course she’s crazy to even suspect the vaccine. We all by now how safe and effective those Covid1984 shots are.

    • hillcountry says:

      what if these inoculations are triggering latent Mycobacterium Tuberculosis?
      they say one-third of humans on earth have it

      Journal of Perinatal and Neonatal Nursing
      2008 Jul-Sep
      Tuberculosis: a breast-feeding challenge
      Suzanne Aquilina, Theresa Winkelman
      Affiliations collapse
      Affiliation
      School of Nursing, The State University of New York, Buffalo, USA. saquilin@buffalo.edu
      PMID: 18708872
      Abstract
      A recent resurgence of tuberculosis in the world community has brought the disease into the forefront of communicable disease control. Acknowledging the proven benefits of breast-feeding infants, the question of compatibility arises regarding the safety of breast-feeding an infant in the event of active tuberculosis disease in the mother. This article will discuss the emerging trends of tuberculosis disease and review the evidence that addresses the issues of safety while breast-feeding during tuberculosis treatment.

  22. Fast Eddy says:

    Oh wow…. but I just searched this — there is ZERO in the MSM…

    Keep on boostin mummy! More spike for baby!!!

    JAMA: mRNA Vaccine Shedding in Breast Milk Proven!

    Journal of American Medical Association Urges to Avoid Breastfeeding After Vaccination!

    https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/jama-vaccine-shedding-in-breast-milk

  23. Fast Eddy says:

    Pressure drop reported: Nord Stream pipelines may have been damaged by attacks
    The Nord Stream pipelines may have been damaged by targeted attacks and leaked as a result.

    After a drastic pressure loss occurred in one of the two lines of Nord Stream 2 during the night on Monday and a leak was found in Danish territorial waters, a spokesman for the double pipeline Nord Stream 1 also reported a “severe pressure drop” on Monday evening ‘ recorded on both lines. The situation is now being investigated.

    https://hiddencomplexity.substack.com/p/nordstream-suffers-a-disruptive-attack

    Or there’s just not enough gas left to keep the flow happening…

    2030? I dunno about that dave

    • ivanislav says:

      USA taking out the pipeline to make sure Germany can’t back out!

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        yes there are two countries which could be considered capable of this: Russia and USA.

        now, a person might ask themself, which one has a long history of numerous destructive meddling in the affairs of other countries?

      • Withnail says:

        Both pipelines sabotaged now then. So that’s it. Europe is done.

      • MM says:

        I know from private intel that it was the Angolans.

        Check out my website and do not forget to buy a Pillow.

    • CTG says:

      Hear hear…

      4 days to winter (or the price increase that is being promised to the German citizens) – 1st Oct

      BOTH NS1 and NS2 have leaks (not one but two). Maybe they are filled with sea water.

      So, if Germany says “Sorry Russia, give me a bear hug and let us forget what has happened”, there will be no gas unless they can repair it quickly.

      It is like locking the door and breaking the key into bits. The prisoner cannot escape.

      Maybe the prisoner (Germany) does not want to escape and the prison guard has no intention of letting the prisoner escape.

      haha…hahah…..

      • cassandraclub says:

        This weeks temperature in Europe is about 5 degrees below normal.
        In Siberia the first snow is falling, sneak preview of the coming winter

      • MM says:

        Come on, bring up repair gear!
        We will cancel your bank accounts and the accounts of all your clients and suppliers.

        • MM says:

          Actually the German operator today said:

          “We do not have any personnel here because we can not pay them and we can also not pay for an investigation on what is the damage or what could have been the cause because we can not pay them.”

  24. CTG says:

    Something off my mind….

    I think the situation is really dire when OPEC says there is a 3% shortfall (if I remember correctly). It gets higher over the next few years. That number is really a lot viewing that they like to lowball the figures.

    Middle East has been importing oil from Russia and resell them. It is not a secret.

    NordStream 2 suddenly “leaked”.

    Japan still not open to tourism. Ditto China. China is really quiet now, be it a coup or not (does it really matter now?) the energy situation does not change.

    I think it is very likely that

    1. The cupboard is REALLY REALLY bare.
    2. Maybe nukes will fly.

    I had a long thought on Ripping of Faces (ROF) that Fe is harping. No good. Seriously no good.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      1. the world is using 4 billion gallons of oil products every day. Whose cupboard is bare?

      2. both NS 1 and 2 are reported to have “leaks”? that can’t be some giant cosmic coincidence.

      as the USA/NATZO/EU Elitard plans crumble massively through this winter, the chances increase for an accident where nukes fly.

      if nukes fly, whether it was an accident or on purpose won’t matter to the targeted cities.

      I’ve never been in a nuclear war. I wonder what it would feel like.

      2. nuclear war is just one more story that people tell each other because they don’t want to suffer through a long slow slog of declining prosperity that descends into daily unrelenting misery with too little eating and heating.

      really, how many prefer a life of no future prospects of lessening misery and no hope of any good years ahead?

      nukes can look appealing when the other option looks like semi-collapse into a life of bare minimum essentials, where winter is suffered through with no heat, and just enough calories of poor quality food to keep people alive but malnourished and unhealthy.

      it seems likely that there will be no easy way out of this, no nukes flying everywhere, when the Universe seems to prefer to prolong suffering and misery.

      too bad, no nukes flying tonight, baby!

      • CTG says:

        1. the world is using 4 billion gallons of oil products every day. Whose cupboard is bare?

        You sure? You saw it flow?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        We don’t have to have a bare cupboard for the global economy to collapse — surely I don’t have to explain why.

    • Lidia17 says:

      In the back of my mind, I always have that 2017 HSBC report: 6% oil production decline per year. There really isn’t anything anyone can say after that.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Recall how China fakes GDP… ‘The cupboard is REALLY REALLY bare’ — same with oil reserves… they will lie and have lied. We don’t want that truth do we.

      I’m feeling a tinge of anxiety as ROF does seem to be the more likely outcome — we definitely don’t want that…

      Keep the Faith and hope that the Elders will finish us off before collapse hits…

      2030? hmmmm… enjoy BAU tonight … really enjoy it… there may not be many nights left

      • Sam says:

        2030? I think not…..sad but true all countries are lying about gdp. If they weren’t they would all be reporting negative numbers.

    • Withnail says:

      They have not been importing oil from Russia and reselling it. They have been importing fuel oil to put in their power stations.

  25. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Take it or else.

    Trudeau encourages Canadians to get the “new formulations” of vaccines that will “keep us even safer.”

    “That’ll mean that we won’t need to take further steps, hopefully.”
    https://twitter.com/RebelNewsOnline/status/1574469317454082048

  26. Michael Le Merchant says:

    UK’s CDS is not looking pretty as bond vigilantes are all over it
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdmzV6aWYAAx-0P?format=jpg&name=medium

    • We hope banks do not suddenly have big problems with derivatives.

      • CTG says:

        “We hope banks do not suddenly have big problems with derivatives.”

        At some point of time, which is probably now, we are only left with “hope”. Not too long after that, “hope” will be gone too.

        No oil means no oil. No money to pay the bills for oil/gas/heating means no money to pay. – Well you hope you can pay.

        If there is no gas or oil means no gas or oil. Even if you have a million bucks, no oil means no oil. Get it?

        I think most people cannot understand the severity of this.

        Who knows maybe on 1st October, MSM will report that those who took the shots is f678. Sorry you cannot sue because you signed the indemnity form.

        Say it one more time…

        Ripping of Faces (ROF) is not good. Totally not good. If my neighbour is a grandma came over and ask for food, what should I do even I don’t have enough? I know her for a long time and she is very nice and have taken care of my kids.

        1. give her food?
        2. chase her away?
        3. bash her head with a pan?
        4. ???

        • Fast Eddy says:

          That’s one for the doomie preppers…. and we’ve not even considered the violent types hell bent on a bit of rape…

          They’ve been able to fend this moment off for nearly two decades with all sorts of financial gimmicks .. but as you indicate we are now approaching the physical limits of available energy … soon they will be pushing on a string no matter what they do…

          We really are in deep shit… something bad is gonna happen … soon

          Hopefully it doesn’t hit before October… I want my Q4 Boom prediction to come true

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Feels a bit like khe sanh

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I just shifted a chunk of company cash up in HK from HKD into USD… the currency is pegged so that’s a hedge in the event the peg goes … pretty much risk free because the HKD would be the currency that would devalue…

      Not that it is likely to matter… but it might keep the wheel turning as we circle the toilet bowl

  27. Jef Jelten says:

    It seems clear that as long as supply chains exist anyone and everyone will try and sell whatever they can to the US. This is what is happening and it explains how much of current activities around the world are designed to facilitate that single focus. Things can collapse at an increasing rate but still everyone will do whatever they can to do deals and bring in $. They will sell the very resources that will keep their populations alive in order to get the $s they think they need to keep their economise and therefore their populations alive.

  28. CTG says:

    EROEI – a topic that Gail has mixed feelings.

    EROEI usually does not take into account complexity. Taking the example of the vertical farming. It is a complex process and the food itself may not be “tasty and nutritious” because it may be lack of micro nutrients or other stuff that soil provides.

    Take an oil well. People ten to calculate EROEI at the well-head but is it accurate? I doubt so. If you include what is necessary to get the oil out at well head, the “overhead” EROEI will be gigantic.

    It requires diamond drill bits and advanced electronics and computers. Do you add in the energy required to mine the diamond or the electronics? If yes, then you also need to add in the suppliers of the diamond mind and electronic factories. However the supplier to the supplier to the supplier of everything right down to the janitor?

    So, you tell me the janitor is not important? Yes they are. If all the janitor disappears and the toilets get clogged and dirty, the factory will not function.

    So, how to calculate the EROEI if you need to include everything (including the universities and nursery to take care of the kids of the engineers)?

    • Modeling the world economy as an entire system, back at the time The Limits to Growth was published, in 1972, worked pretty well. In fact, in that model, something sort of like an overall EROEI of 20:1 seemed to work. (Total reinvestment, not energy, however.)

      Trying to model one piece of the economy and then compare it to another modeled piece of the economy is fraught with problems. I don’t think you can do what you are suggesting. The financial system is what collects together all of the pieces.

      I have suggested that profitability, without subsidies, is a better measure of return. If there is truly a sufficiently high return, governments can collect high taxes, and the owner can still make an adequate return. The tax revenue provides the rest of society some of the “surplus energy” provided by the supposed source of energy.

      • CTG says:

        EROEI is just too complex to model. Any model will be rife with inaccuracies, maybe my orders of magnitude.

        • Lidia17 says:

          It would depend on the level of super-structures the process has to support.

          If I personally plant five garlic gloves in the backyard and get ten next year, that’s one thing. If I have to plant 5000 in order to fulfill a wholesale requirement of 10,000 to a complex supermarket chain, that’s another. Transactions and transformations seem to eat up all of the surplus wealth, if not more (MEPP).

          I don’t see a real path to conservation of surplus.

          • Dennis L. says:

            Leave it in the ground; basically there is no surplus on a finite planet. What is present is an asset which is depleted, except for oil. It is a renewable, the problem is a time scale. The externality is the sun with the caveat of the long time frame in which we are all dead as has been previously noted.

            Dennis L.

  29. Lastcall says:

    There are so many threads needed to weave a blanket, and here we have a situation where most people are threadbare in their (non) thinking.

    They can hold one or two threads in their head space, but try to weave together the many false flags, diversions, intrigues and counter arguments leaves them breathless and clinging to the narrative by their fingertips.

    They can’t begin to believe that Cov 1 and 2 are only different in one respect; the first was a missed opprtunity, the second was a massive misinformation campaign to bring fear and compliance into the trained and mindless.

    The Titanic hit the iceberg, the band played on, and only the few survived via luck and circumstance.
    This phonetary financial scam has hit its iceberg, the karaoke economy staggers on, and the plebs think that Captain Kirk will pull us from the nose dive.
    Europe will be the iceberg; polar vortex here we come.

  30. CTG says:

    Just 1.5% Of Eligible People Have Gotten Updated COVID Booster

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/just-15-eligible-people-have-gotten-updated-covid-booster

    FE – not good….

    Bring out the nukes

    • I read an announcement that in one location, a $100 payment was being offered to children taking the updated COVID booster. I suppose a few poor families will take them up on the offer.

      • Lidia17 says:

        That is awful!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        In my dystopian series working title – The Nightmare …

        Parents auction their children off to the Vaccinators… the Vaccinators will dress in outfits like this except that they will also be profoundly mentally ill morbidly obese trannies who have transitioned back and forth a couple of times since their first mutilation at age 11…

        Morticians will be standing by to collect the bodies of the children as they collapse with seizures eyes rolling back in their heads… and finally succumbing to massive heart attacks…

        All the while sirens will blare Eeeee Awwww Eeee Awww… and the parents will be high fiving and saying Show Me The Money — which will be counted into their greedy hands as the studio audience screams 100… 200…

        Utter F789ing Madness..

        https://cdn.webshopapp.com/shops/32318/files/296718168/epic-armoury-leather-mask-plague-doctor-brown.jpg

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Nukes are a good back up plan… hit all the major population centres and target all the spent fuel ponds… that would kill off billions…

      The unfortunate thing about living so far away is we are unlikely to get a reasonable share of the missiles.. they might only target Auckland 🙁

      That leaves me lingering eating canned beans and waiting for the plumes of radiation to come south

      • hillcountry says:

        and to think, you could have had a beautiful lighthouse overlooking the largest body of fresh water on earth and dined on fish pasties and cherry wine until the end. Rumor has it the Finns will be closing the Mackinaw Bridge to reduce immigration but if you can make it to Texas, we might be able to arrange something involving a big helicopter. Send a resume General Delivery, Paradise, Michigan 49768

  31. CTG says:

    FE brought up a very inconvenient statement about PR Team and The Matrix. I guess we at OFW is more open now towards The Matrix since more and more people agree that they just don’t know what is real or not.

    From the point of konspirasi, these people are just trying to describe what is happening in The Matrix.

    Did the Queen die? Were you by her side when she breathe the last breath? Were you there to hold her hands? If it is not, then you cannot say that she died. Well, all the people in the world will say “It has to be because the newspaper said so”. Well, the same newspapers were saying “safe and effective”. So, you are a in fix. Do you selectively believe what the newspaper tell you? If the answer is yes, then you are no different from the wokesters, the “safe and effective” crowded.

    Was there Nordstream2? Did you see it?
    Was there a war in UKR? Did you see it?

    Our reality is defined by what our senses tell is what is within a few meters of where we stand. In the old days, beyond that sensory perception distance, , it was irrelevant and they don’t need to know. Right now, it should be irrelevant but because of “technology”, we “know” instantly what is what happening on the other side of the world.

    Note the quote marks in the word know. It may sound relevant but it should not if there is a coup in China or not.

    Any collapse that happens has to be local withing the sensory perception distance. Turn off all the electronic devices and you will be back to the old days.

    It is all an illusion.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reality_in_Buddhism

  32. banned says:

    Fed loosens or financial contagion. Whether corporate, individual, or government dollar denominated debt can not be serviced without ZIRP. The fed waits to loosen only to keep powder dry for the mother of all depressions coming. or reasons unknown to mere mortals. raising interest rates can not mitigate inflation caused by resource depletion.

  33. Fast Eddy says:

    Ed Dowd understands that the global economy is about to collapse.

    But he also believes this is being done on purpose.

    He also believes this is a Great Reset.

    The Great Reset meme was invented for people like Ed Dowd. To prevent them from falling into total despair

    • Think of the Great Reset as the Great Debt Default. Maybe it is being done on purpose; there is no way out, otherwise.

      • Cromagnon says:

        When the actual real physical reset occurs all financial transactions will be reduced to barter for turnips or slaves.

        The future is the Flintstones not the Jetsons,…. and I don’t care what any banker or financial wizard tries to put by the masses.

        • Markets can be made to operate very simply. Mark all goods in some currency. It could be December 2021 US Dollars, or in bushels of wheat.

          People bring goods, and get shopping credits in whatever the currency is. These can be written on paper or on clay tablets–anything that is available. People bringing things to sell and use these credits to buy whatever others have brought to the market. This method has been available for a long time and will continue to be available. People with nothing to sell in the market get left out.

      • Lidia17 says:

        The question is whether the planned monetary regime after a “reset” is going to be, itself, fit for purpose. I have doubts.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          There can be no reset aka total default. There are literally billions of moving parts involved … it’s ridiculous that anyone involved in finance eg. Dowd – can believe this is possible …

          I suppose it’s better than believing you are a dead man walking…

          And if course it doesn’t fix the energy problem.

          The collapse of collapses is brewing.. where is that f789ing Demon Covid.

          Notice the restrictions are coming off big time now – CAnada has pulled them — and we are seeing a bit more negativity on the injections — mission accomplished?

          What’s the next move from the Elders … the PR Team .. and the Death Shot scientists..

          We are very close to the end of the game now…

          Good thing that Ukey War is still going on … surely it will end soon and we go back to normal — then we have trannies in the classroom to distract us… and let’s not forget hacking off of children’s body parts and stitching on peckers … and feeding 8 yr old kids puberty blockers… very distracting … then we have Trump screaming MAGA and Biden pretending to shake hands with ghosts…

          Who said the end of the world would be boring … it’s a 50 ring circus!

          Yee Haw… this is a perfect end .. to the most vile species to ever walk the Earth

        • the ‘great reset’, and the only ‘great reset’ there can be, is the condition of humankind itself

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Oh yes — most definitely!

        But it don’t fill the oil fields.. and as we know depletion of affordable energy is what has caused the catastrophe that is headed our way

        Ed Dowd doesn’t know about the energy issues… and does not want to know… he is not interested in The Truth

      • Sam says:

        Is it a way out?

  34. Agamemnon says:

    Good short article on V.Smil:

    https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-09-05/the-energy-historian-who-says-rapid-decarbonization-is-a-fantasy

    I’m still wondering if that vertical farm concept is more energy efficient than conventional I.E. energy input from source to mouth. (Lower transport cost? Not sure if they can calculate it.
    Just saying if it is it’s worthwhile ( just like conserving energy in any area)
    I know I know your comments made sense and I think this will fizzle out even if it’s half complete.

    • The vertical farm may be more efficient, but it is more complex. Efficiency is not the point. What we lose, as energy supply per capita falls, is the ability to maintain our current level of complexity. We need simpler ways of doing things, not more efficient ways.

      The idea that we can save ourselves through growing complexity is a myth. Growing complexity leads to resource exhaustion and wage disparity. It actually tends to use resources more quickly. We need simpler ways, going forward.

      • Artleads says:

        +++

      • Cromagnon says:

        I agree, but try telling that to even the “enlightened”. I used to teach permaculture in a former more optimistic life and even those hippie gardeners could not grasp this simple concept.

        Collapse is in essence a great simplification of any civilization that experiences it.

        Now of course, that said, when we get hit by millions of meteoric tac tights the size of coke cans moving at hypersonic velocities from the rapidly approaching “solar event”, things will get real simple, real fast……

      • Replenish says:

        “Vertical Farming Does Not Save Space”

        “If the electricity for a vertical farm is supplied by solar panels, the energy production takes up at least as much space as the vertical farm saves.”

        “These companies are profitable, but only because the process relies on a supply of cheap fossil fuels. If solar panels supplied the energy, the extra costs and space for the energy supply would again cancel out the savings in terms of space and costs. The only advantage of a vertical farm would then be the shorter transport distances. Still, we could just as well make transport between town and countryside more sustainable.

        The problem with agriculture is not that it happens in the countryside. The problem is that it relies heavily on fossil fuels. The vertical farm is not the solution since it replaces, once again, the free and renewable energy from the sun with expensive technology that is dependent on fossil fuels (LED lamps + computers + concrete buildings + solar panels). Our lifestyle is becoming less and less sustainable, increasingly dependent on raw materials, infrastructure, machines, and fossil energy. Unfortunately, this also applies to almost all technology that we nowadays label sustainable.”

        https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2021/02/vertical-farming-ecosystem-services.html

      • Jane says:

        And the complexity/efficiency issue doesn’t even start to touch on the nutritional value of the products of all of this high tech.

        I have a book, The Vertical Farm: Feeding the World in the 21st Century, by Dr. Dickson Desponnier, with a foreword by Majora Carter, a MacArthus “Genius” Fellow. It has a lot of illustrations of fabulous futuristic buildings that exist to provide some vegetables. One illustration shows”A curved, highly transparent building design for the vertical farm,” courtesy of Peek-Cloppenburg, KG. Oddly enough, this firm turns out to be an international fashion firm . . . Any, the caption includes this: “Getting the sunlight into th eback of the VF will necessitate the use of specially parabolic mirrors. . . . The use of fiber optics to bring sunlight to individual plants might also be an option for some vertical farms.” These an other brainstorms sound like wet dreams of individuals who have probably never gotten their hands dirty in a garden, and most assuredly will not be tending the plants in their parabolic paradise.

        It would seem sensible to build on and ratchet up application of nature’s systems that we know work, such as building up soil, increasing composting, figuring out how to treat human waste so that it can be used as natural fertilizer, making efficient use of green spaces in the suburbs, building greenhouses in empty waste lots in urban areas and outskirts—and more. That would be genuine efficiency. There is so much wasted space in the American urban and suburban landscape, not to mention out there in the boonies. All just to produce maybe cucumbers, strawberries, and leafy green vegetables.

        It seems to me that one attraction of these mega-vertical projects to “planners” and architects who are planning other people’s lives is that they are capital intensive. They require investment for complicated designs and systems. They give jobs to a bunch of technical dreamers.

        The syntax of much of the food “debate” betrays the idea that “we” must feed the world. The world is not capable of feeding itself.

        Whereas building up soil, increasing and improving composting—even maybe figuring out how to use human waste as fertilizer—are fairly low-tech projects that community groups and even high schools etc. can easily carry out, if given minimal types of encouragement and support, appropriate terrain, and funding to get going and construct some good support structures for plants plus tall wire fences to keep out rabbits, etc.. Well-planned intensively gardened plots cared for by high school students can produce a lot of food. I have seen it. And the high school kids enjoy this activity and it is actually very positive for them. .

        I recently saw a little community garden in Maine where the compost pile is a huge pile in the middle of the space. It has probably been expanding in size for years as gardeners throw their weeds and other stuff on the pile. It was covered with huge pumpkin vines with giant leaves that obviously had germinated from the pile itself and looked preternaturally healthy, like in a science fiction movie, or a jungle. The pumpkins basically growing “wild” were huge. Other edibles were just sprouting out of the compost pile, plus flowers, etc.

        • a fibre optic to each plant

          defies belief

        • MM says:

          The basic fact that eating insects is eating “a natural product brought about by natural evolution” just never comes to the promoters of this idea.

          Can you not bring up something better like a blusrbespkdjhg Pizza of a KWJvjvcc Burger.

          You can not 3D print an insect but for sure blusrbespkdjhg Pizza of a KWJvjvcc Burger.

          For some strange reason you are not able to bring it on, sucker.

      • banned says:

        Its a protein farm.

      • hillcountry says:

        https://www.gardentowerproject.com/

        simple concept with a worm-composting tube down the center

    • Also, I 100% agree with Vaclav Smil. Rapid decarbonization is a myth!

    • Lidia17 says:

      Laws of Thermodynamics as I was taught them:
      – You can’t win
      – You can’t break even
      – You can’t get out of the game

      Vertical farming expends a lot of energy to cultivate low-calorie crops. It’s photogenic but otherwise a scam/dead end.

      • Good way of putting the problem.

      • Jane says:

        Lats night I read some more in the book I mentioned. Actually, I had read quite a lot of it before and did some underlining.

        So one thing is that the advocates of vertical farming see the latter as a replacement for using land for farming, and the land can naturally “wild” and start to rebalance local ecologies.

        So far I see no mention in the book of the idea of regenerative agriculture.

        I also so far don’t see any discussion that veritical farms might actually increase the “heat” profile of urban areas that are already hot spots. Certainly the locales where the high-tech construction and maintenance materials are produced ( or mined) might not be sites of ecological advances made in the abandoned farms.

        Has the Dutch govt made any clear statements as to their plans for the land that they are trying to force farmers to abandon?

        One other idea is that sports fields could also be abandoned and turned into farm fields. Are competitive sports, whether collegiate or high school or professional, more valuable to society than food?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Sports fields are sprayed and fertilized with chems… you cannot grow food on them if you don’t have chems. The soil is f789ed.

          When the supply chain snaps… you starve. If you have food – or a garden — the hordes will rip your face off and take it – including any barnyard animals that you might have

        • MM says:

          “Wild land” is an euphemism for

          “Digging up all resources for our profits going unnoticed”

    • Withnail says:

      It won’t be. If you add more complexity that has to be paid for somewhere in increased energy use, whether in day to day running or embodied in the equipment and supplies you use.

      But even if it were more efficient its still a big new electricity consumer and that’s a problem.

  35. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    So, this is in Paradise…BAU and just imagine when the SHTF…no pun intended

    ‘I Thought They Killed Him’: Wife of Man Violently Attacked in Hollywood Beach Speaks
    Police are looking for three people involved in an attack caught on camera
    Hollywood Police released a violent video on Thursday that showed a group of people attacking the man who was already on the ground.
    According to the police, the victim, Wilbert Nodarse, was repeatedly kicked and punched by two men and a woman over cutting a bathroom line.
    Cell phone video showed a man in red shorts kicking Nodarse in his face and knocking his head to the ground. Police said it happened in June near Tyler Street and North Broadwalk.
    Investigators said the victim and his wife were in line waiting to use the public bathroom when two couples cut the line, sparking a heated argument that soon turned physical.
    The victim’s wife, Mayra Nodarse, said she was with her grandson when the incident unfolded, leaving her in a state of shock.
    I was like ‘you’re killing him, you’re killing him!'” she said Friday. “He passed out. He was unconscious. His eyes just rolled back, and he was just like snoring. I thought they even killed him. I was screaming, “you killed him!'”
    People passing by took notice of the incident and start cursing at the attackers, according to police.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/i-thought-they-killed-him-wife-of-man-violently-attacked-in-hollywood-beach-speaks-out/2829144/%3famp=1
    His wife said Nodarse was left with a fractured jaw and hospital bills, and barely even remembers what happened. Now she said she just wants to bring the attackers to justice.

    • banned says:

      Incidents are a good reminder that every time you leave the home you commit to conflict avoidance spiritually emotionally and logically in these times. This doesnt mean you are passive. People sense you. Bad guys sense you. Your neutral. Gray.

      So a month or so eating puree with a wired jaw and some brain trauma for the individual above. Not so much fun.

      Off topic. Why you run from a knife. The flowing light Filipino flow style with Karambit is shown. All paths lead to being cut. Ive played with knives a bit with rubber knives and various skill levels of partners. Even if there is no skill and the guy just knows he can poke you knife defense is problematic. Yes there are guys who can pull it off. Usually the guy running the school can pull it off but his seconds in command are hit or miss.

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/sV4HDjIEKb4I/

      You
      run
      from
      a
      edged
      weapon

      The rural Latino farm workers are not big on fights. Fight starts someone gets stabbed fight over. Inevitable ending no excitement there.

      I listened to a homicide detective being interviewed on the radio once. The interviewer asked what would be the one thing he would like to share with the audience. The detective said 99% of the homicides he had investigated when a weapon was produced the victim said “go ahead shoot/stab me”. The detective said his advice was to not say that when a weapon was produced. Throwing some cash on the ground and suddenly running using the adrenaline dump is another good way to indicate you would prefer not to be shot/stabbed. You fight when there is no other choice, when your cornered or you cant leave family. Anything else is mutually agreed combat to some degree.

      The trouble with carrying a weapon is it is can be tempting to deploy it rather than practicing conflict avoidance. If you love yourself you practice conflict avoidance. Carrying a weapon changes what people sense in you. You may not know what you project changed but the others sense it.

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/sV4HDjIEKb4I/

    • Tim Groves says:

      Theabove link is a dud. But just to calm everyone down, I want to reassure you that no celebrities were injured during the altercation. This occurred on Hollywood Beach in Florida.

      Warning!! You may find some of these scenes distressing. Hollywood Beach looks like a cross between a Walmart Morbidly Obese Shoppers convention and a walrus colony.

      https://wsvn.com/news/local/broward/man-beat-unconscious-on-hollywood-beach-wife-speak-out-as-attackers-remain-at-large/

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The thing is …

        If you doomie prep – there are much worse people than this out there… much much much worse….

        They will want your food… they will take it

  36. Fast Eddy says:

    There you go – ‘after the Ukey war has ended’ >> back to normal .. therefore the Ukey war will and must continue — otherwise

    As the pressure builds and the first closures begin, Germany is entering an economic recession, and there are everyday renewed cracks in the political edifice. Minister President of Saxony Michael Kretschmer (CDU) – no fringe political figure – recently remarked that Germany “cannot do without Russian gas” and acknowledged that EU sanctions are to blame for the shortage, but he stopped short of demanding that Nord Stream 2 be opened; instead, he hopes for a return to Russian gas after the Ukraine war has ended.

    Prices have increased vastly across the economy, and estimates are that up to 60 percent of German households are now committing their entire monthly income to cover the rising cost of living.

    The depth of the crisis isn’t fully known, as loan defaults and similar economic signals won’t begin in earnest until 2023.

    https://www.welt.de/finanzen/plus241261089/Geldnot-Nach-dem-Preisschock-droht-vielen-Deutschen-das-Schuldenproblem.html

    https://www.eugyppius.com/p/german-energy-apocalypse-update-v/comments

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    There’s always the option to blame the deaths of perfectly healthy people on fluffing duvets, klimate change, broken hearts and so on …

    Which is what the MSM is telling the CovIDIOTS … and as we can see ehre.. they believe it..

    The vax is Safe and Effective

  38. Fast Eddy says:

    CHINA is awash from rumours of Game of Thrones-style plotting as the intrigue rocks the Communist Party.

    President Xi Jinping has not been seen in public since he returned from a summit of Uzbekistan on September 16.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19923373/mystery-xi-jinping-missing-china-coup/

    • Student says:

      It seems that something is happening in China, but it is still not clear if it is really happening something and what exactly is happening.

  39. Mirror on the wall says:

    The UKR conflict is not really working out for UKR, EU or UK.

    > Russia Counterblow, NYT Admits Ukraine Massive Losses in Stalled Offensive; UK Teeters on The Brink

  40. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Lights out, ovens off: Europe preps for winter energy crisis

    FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — As Europe heads into winter in the throes of an energy crisis, offices are getting chillier. Statues and historic buildings are going dark. Bakers who can’t afford to heat their ovens are talking about giving up, while fruit and vegetable growers face letting greenhouses stand idle.

    In poorer eastern Europe, people are stocking up on firewood, while in wealthier Germany, the wait for an energy-saving heat pump can take half a year. And businesses don’t know how much more they can cut back.

    “We can’t turn off the lights and make our guests sit in the dark,” said Richard Kovacs, business development manager for Hungarian burger chain Zing Burger. The restaurants already run the grills no more than necessary and use motion detectors to turn off lights in storage, with some stores facing a 750% increase in electricity bills since the beginning of the year.

    With costs high and energy supplies tight, Europe is rolling out relief programs and plans to shake up electricity and natural gas markets as it prepares for rising energy use this winter. The question is whether it will be enough to avoid government-imposed rationing and rolling blackouts after Russia cut back natural gas needed to heat homes, run factories and generate electricity to a tenth of what it was before invading Ukraine.
    https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-germany-prices-cca7e5afd38fbcfc1ad72934e8e59bd9

    • Dennis L. says:

      With surplus energy, many activities were nice but not necessary. Discretionary spending goes down, essentials remain constant or increase, e.g. electricty costs.

      So deflation of some assets is a given; a guess is liquidation will be of the easiest to sell, the good stuff. So buy the dips of the good stuff.

      I am on record stating deflation is coming or here, without energy, stuff is worth less no matter how much money is printed. Liquidity is going to be a problem in the near term, painful I expect.

      Dennis L.

      • Jef Jelten says:

        Den L – You don’t understand. Less of everything is inflationary because when there is less of anything it becomes more expensive aka inflation.

        What is the only tool for inflation? Demand Destruction – the Double Ds.

        I will explain because some of you still do not understand. When there is less of something but the same number of people trying to buy it, Like energy, or lets say FOOD, then people will pay more because they must have it to survive.

        Make it impossible for those people to buy those things, say through removing money from the economy, or destroying jobs, (look up Fed Mandates) and VOILA! you have contained inflation…..nasty side effect is millions get sick, suffer, and die while the wealthy don’t even feel a thing.

        • I think that you have been listening to too many economists. I think that Dennis is correct.

          Things have value because of how they can be used. An automobile with no fuel, or with no tires, or no fuel pump, is not worth much. A house which is distant from all jobs is not worth much.

          If it is not possible to live in a home if electricity is needed to make the home “operate” normally, then the home has a real problem. For a home in a high rise, where the water must be pumped up to a high floor, the home likely has a problem without electricity. In fact, if windows are sealed shut, the high rise probably is not very useful either. If electricity keeps going on and off, an elevator that keeps getting stuck between floors is not very helpful, either.

          They always assume that demand will rise endlessly. Thus, if there is not enough of something, price will rise because of this high demand.

          It doesn’t work this way.

          • Jef Jelten says:

            Gail – You are of course correct but until there is no more of these things, as they become scarce they become more expensive. This is not economist thinking. They believe that the demand will create supply…magically?

            This is also not inflation but still the only tool for fixing scarcity is…???? you got it …Demand destruction.

    • Europe is clearly in bad shape, in terms of energy supplies.

      • Withnail says:

        The Nord Stream 2 pipeline has been sabotaged. It’s now full of seawater. I am not kidding.

        https://news.sky.com/story/nord-stream-2-leak-a-danger-to-ships-as-denmark-issues-baltic-sea-warning-12705959

        • banned says:

          ZH reports 90% pressure loss in both NS1 and NS2. Well that puts “kiss and make up” to rest once and for all. Thats the trouble with destroying infrastructure.

          Russia folds.
          No kiss and make up.
          West folds.
          No kiss and make up.
          A peace process manifests.
          No kiss and make up.

          Whether EU or Russia “want” to trade natural gas is largely irrelevant now. Even if the EU clones symbiotic werewolf bio war entities that swarm on Moscow the spice will not flow. Somebody wanted kiss and make up impossible. Both pipelines springing leaks at once means monkey business was the cause. Its done now and no going back(maybe). If seawater enters those pipelines its start from page one. If nothing else the idea was there that kiss and makeup could occur. Thats gone if seawater enters those pipes. This changes things. It looks like EU is going to be getting along(sort of) without Russian NG and Russia is going to be getting along (not sort of) without Euros. This is a pivotal event. What exactly the consequences are is unknown.

          Will the Druzhba, or “Friendship”, pipeline suffer a similar fate? If it does Orbons lift the sanctions ideas are irrelevant too.

          Cold winter.
          Try cold winters plural on for size.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          The frog is starting to feel something is not right in the pot of water

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Most people will look at MLM’s horrifying graphs — and experience despair and panic… even fear

        When I look at them I feel exhilaration… delight… pleasure …. yes I know it means I die soon and that I do not want … however that unhappy thought it overridden by the fact that the torture of the animals will soon end…

        The industrial level gulag that would make the Nazi and Japanese experiments on humans look like a tea party — then of course there are the billions of animals locked in cages living nasty brutish short lives — without a moment of joy … not even a single second in their short lives where they can experience what it is to be free…

        Nope – just total misery from birth to slaughter… all in the name of 8B f789tards being able to feast on chicken nuggets.

        Do you see why I feel exhilaration? The only way to end this suffering — the Only Way — is to Remove the Source.

        Is that not obvious?

        • Unfortunately, the ecosystem works this way. There are an awfully lot of animals that are predators of other animals.

          Humans have been able to tap into external sources of energy, beyond what they get from eating food (first burned biomass, later burned fossil fuels), to give themselves powers beyond what other animals have. This allows humans to be super predators. It must end at some point.

          I am not sure that I would take delight in the reign of humans ending. Perhaps the reign of humans was the whole point of the creation of the Universe. If there is Higher Power behind the entire self-organizing system, perhaps the reign of humans was a major part of the plan. We don’t know what is coming next. We can imagine all kinds of terrible things, but perhaps those aren’t the way the system ends. There have been a lot of strange coincidences that have allowed Earth to have the conditions necessary for human life to flourish. There may be more coincidences ahead that cause humans to mutate, and in the mutated state, become able to extract more resource from the Earth. There are a lot of things we don’t know. The Higher Power may have a plan that we do not understand.

          In fact, we don’t know exactly how the situation will end.

          • Cromagnon says:

            It will end how all the simulations end. A full reset will occur wiping billions from the holosphere and altering collective memory structures of survivors so they relate to their “ historical timelines” tales of dragons…. atmospheric immolation, innundation ( Pole shift), fire pillars ( plasma bolts), sun going black ( solar dust shell expanding toward earth), massed vulcanism, super quakes,….
            .
            Dogs and cats,….living together,….

            And abracadabra,…… the light is green ( earth recovering biosphere),….. the trap is clean ( few remaining clueless humans trying to survive in a newly Neolithic world.

            Makes one wish for simple catabolic Collapse ( JMG) secondary to diminishing returns (Tainter) and overshoot (Catton)…..

            But those phenomena are just the warm up….
            .
            On the upside we get rid of all the lawyers and the feminists.

            It’s not all bad

            • Cromagnon says:

              The ancient cities are Dwarka and Khambhat. Google/you tube etc….

              We won’t even mention the cities under 1700 feet of sea water off the Cuban coast…… perhaps millions of years bp ( or evidence of Massive seafloor subsidence…..reset).

              These cities are everywhere, even dry land arctic regions ( Siberian monster megalith sites)

            • looking at the video it seems the dwarka reference is to about 3500 bce

              bit about ‘claimed to have discovered it’—etc, so not much definitive there, seems a bit vague.

              as to ‘millions of years ago’, i’d need a few links to form an opinion on that.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            My $$$$ is on Extinction. We are just another animal like all the others that went extinct…

            We are nothing special – at least in any sort of positive we… we are only special in that we have inflicted horror billions of the other animals.

            That is about to end.

            https://youtu.be/3GwjfUFyY6M

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            I had a lovely chicken and chips for dinner. If that was the grand cosmic ‘plan’ then I am not complaining. Listening to some exquisite techno music on the B&Os right now. If that is the ‘point’ of cosmic evolution then I ‘get it’. Or as the 60s crowd used to say, I ‘dig it, man.’ The chicken goes ‘cluck, cluck’ so that the music can go ‘click, click’. It makes perfect sense if you think about it. ‘Click, click!’

            ‘God’ speaks?

          • the supernova is a common physical occurrence.

            humankind bumbled along for a million years or so, doing very little other than ‘living’—then 300 years ago we lit a fire under a steam engine—then boom!!!!—we went from 1 billion to 8 billion.

            think of it as a flash of heat and light going off in an historical blink of an eye.

            after which we sink back into the darkness we emerged from.

            we won’t go back to ‘1 billion’, it will be much less, a few hundred thousand, a million maybe, 1/200 years from now, because we will have ‘wars of denial’, —we have been having those since the mid 20th c.

            Shooting or politics or a mixture of the two–such wars are driven by the same ‘denial’ forces.

            there will be no ‘rebuild’, because we will not possess anything to rebuild with.

            • Cromagnon says:

              But you have to have wonderment for cities of 5 square miles that have absolutely and definitively been discovered under 170 feet of seawater off the Indian coast. Radiocarbon of artifacts recovered from these ( plural actually) places this city at 32,000 years bp.
              The implications for even mainstream thinkers should be mind shattering.

              The world is not what you think it is.

              PS: I am not talking about supernovas ( that would remove all the inner planets completely). I am talking about. a recurrent micro nova ( every 12,000 years)

              Sorta like clockwork,…… or a algorithm

              Welcome to the simacrulum

            • I haven’t run across cities of this type before. Do you have links?

              I have run across at least one city under the Sahara Desert that is a little less than 1,000 years old. https://www.messynessychic.com/2020/01/15/buried-in-sand-for-a-millenia-africas-roman-ghost-city/

              Makes a person wonder about recent climate change.

            • the sahara changed from savannah to desert as the last ice age retreated and altered rainfall patterns.
              Rock carvings in the Sahara clearly show numerous wild animals now found 000s of miles to the south.

              Prehistoric river beds have been clearly identified under the desert.

              that ‘climate change’ happened over thousands of years, not the couple of hundred years we are currently dealing with.

            • i used the term ‘supernova’ as a simile.

              agreed, there were great cities in past eras, but if you check, these were all within the warm zone of tropical-subtropical regions around the world, and they didn’t push outwards to other less hospitable regions , at least not in terms of extractive settlement.

              the sun provided free life-energy, but they would have collapsed probably through over use of available (local) food resources, but certainly not fossil fuels, or there would have been none left for us in our time.

              none of that affects what the world ”is”

              i hadnt seen the article about the city off the indian coast, could you post that please?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      And it’s not even October hahahahaha…

      This is more prepping for Global Holodomor… they are making life not worth living … I expect Candied F to arrive in the post by November. That’s your Plan B folks.

      • Lidia17 says:

        Meloni immediately pledged her fealty to Israel, and baby Netanyahu gave her his blessing, so… yeah, life in the ZOG or nothing. The psychos don’t get that when they’ve beat the cart horse to death they’ve killed their own paycheck. MEPP FTW.

  41. Jan says:

    Have you seen this reuters note?

    OPEC+ supply shortfall now stands at 3.5% of global oil demand

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-supply-shortfall-now-stands-35-global-oil-demand-2022-09-20/

    • drb753 says:

      If it is true that oil production is declining 4% a year, it should be even larger. But of course there are ways, such as cracking the heavy component (heating oil, which was used for electricity) into lighter molecules, and of course all kerosene from collapsing airline demand is rerouted too. But that is probably the ball park. we will see if next year we get 7% deficit.

    • Sam says:

      I have been watching that too… I wonder where North American production is and others

    • The solution would seem to be to push the world into severe recession, so it requires less crude oil. Then the 3.5 million barrel a day shortfall can be tolerated.

      • people expect to come out of recession—just as they have done in the past

        but that requires constantly increasing energy inputs

        without that, the coming recession will be permanent

        and people won’t like that one bit

      • Dennis L. says:

        Okay, possible scenarios.

        Paper can be printed, assets cannot; all assets are not equal.

        Warren recommended a book, “The Death of Money” some years back. Those who ran to money got creamed, those who had stock had something which is better than nothing.

        So future scenario, something is better than nothing?

        Dennis L.

        • hillcountry says:

          Dennis, I’m still watching the cage match between FOFOA and Rick Ackerman (for distraction purposes only, ha). FOFOA’s guy Nosh has this to say:

          “Reverse Repo is a choice between parking cash (USD) with the Fed at 3.05% or buying US 1m T-Bills at 2.4% and taking on Nominal default risk – it is extreme hot momentum money (possibly European and Asian in origin) that is keeping the USD alive (aka Rollover Risk …..a Lehman moment of sorts awaits us in the FX space, which our host [FOFOA] labels it as FG [freegold]) – Side note – the rate that the Fed is offering on Reverse Repo (3.05%) and Bank Reserves (3.15%) is significantly more than what they earn on their balance sheet assets driving them into a negative cash flow situation but the Fed with its creative accounting solves that problem by creating assets out of thin air and calls them “Deferred Assets” – essentially the Fed is bankrupt and needs an equity injection which will come via FG – until then it is monetary theatre at its best.”

          Simplicity would be the self-organizing system reverting to a good proxy for surplus-energy expended (past and future I suppose). Perhaps the Basil III changes regarding Central Bank balance-sheet accounting of physical gold are an expression of this?

          On the other hand, and not that he doesn’t appreciate gold, there’s Ackerman’s deflation argument, which includes this latest excerpt:

          “Amidst obsessive chatter and headlines concerning inflation, its opposite is already taking shape. Consumer are at a tipping point, holding off on home and car purchases because they think prices will be lower in the future. Prices for both have softened just a little, but the wholesale markdowns that are coming will shrink the economy so precipitously that consumers will be in no shape to hunt for bargains. That’s because their net worth will be falling even faster than prices. The collapse of home prices at the high end will be especially brutal, since the adjustment will take place all at once rather than gradually. Currently, buyers and sellers are at a standoff. The latter, with no mortgages and no urgent need to sell, are holding prices at or near peak levels. For their part, buyers are waiting for prices to come down. They are certain to be right, but in the meantime, transaction volume has dried up almost completely, and with it the vital mechanism of price discovery. In the very hard times ahead, there will be no buyers for these homes, and they will be bequeathed to a next generation that cannot afford them. Thus will today’s inflation shift into reverse, leaving the economy inured to stimulus just as it was in the 1930s.”

          • banned says:

            This. Its a buyers market but no one is buying till it shakes out. I know some people entering retirement that sold at half of the highs this summer. Who knows? 2008 I saw houses sell at 25% of previous sales. Within five years the sellers were kicking themselves. No one knew where it was going then either. Now we have war too and energy issues. The possible end of dollar hedgmony looms distinct also. If the ability to create Fiat ends values of housing return to a function of earnings not debt. The effects of the lockdowns are still with us. No one buying. Sellers hoping. Prices have already come down 20% but nothing moves. I think its for real this time but I thought the same thing in 2008. The funny money they injected in 2009-2010 blew the roof off. Is it forthcoming again and will it work again? My guess those are both big ifs. I am often wrong. Hold on to your hats!

  42. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Highest US mortgage rates since April of 2002
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fdmidw4XkCIyCHi?format=png&name=900×900

    • Fast Eddy says:

      This is akin to lashing the peasants with a rawhide whip…

      There are seldom homes for sale in the area of Queenstown where we live — partly because there are not that many homes in the district… however in the last month or so 5 have come onto the market … I wonder if this is a product of spiking interest rates…

      Loads of people loaded up on debt stretching their finances to the limit when rates were 2%+…. expecting that to continue and expecting prices to go up forever…

      Perhaps they have now collided with reality and and are desperately trying to exit the nightmare before it’s too late?

      • banned says:

        With mortgages at 3% buying and holding real estate was a no brainer. What was assumed was liquidity.

        When liquidity goes away people panic. They try to catch the tail end of the liquidity.

        I had some good friends that got caught in 2008. They moved and their old house hadnt sold. They sat on it and paid double mortgages for a long time. That pain enabled them to realize liquidity is a issue. They went 100% stocks and have done quite well. Everyone got it in in 2008. Then we all gradually forgot. There are different type of pains. I sold all the meager stocks I owned as soon as subprime hit but I stayed cash as the markets roared backs. I actually never returned to the stock market and didnt get those substantial gains to DOW 30k. A different type of pain.

        Buying a home used to be a tremendous decision. 3% mortgage rates changed that to a no brainer. Now we are in uncertainty. Until we return to certainty- war resolved- inflation resolved- dollar hedgmony resolved there can be no price discovery. Price discovery is in these circumstance a function of fear. Some sold a asset they thought was worth 100k at 30k only to watch it go to 200k. A lot of assets returned to bank ownership and the banks sat on them through some creative accounting not letting them hit market at a loss. All of these factors are in play. My guess is this time its much worse. The banks end up with a ton of houses. The government takes them and government provided housing becomes prevalent. I think its way way way different this time. I am often wrong.

        The assumption has been the fed will always step in since 2008. That has led to a confidence that may or may not be well founded. Their are doubts now and I share them and always have.

        From my perspective a perspective that Gails work has helped me form standard of living must fall as energy consumption falls. What we are observing all assets falling simultaneously, cash, stocks,real estate is a logical outcome. Painful but logical. What is the most painful to me is not price discovery but the uncertainty and unnaturalness of the price discovery process. The pain comes from the fact that what determines price discovery is a function of the money creators. Uncertainty is really the pain. As what we thought solid turns to vapor when will it stop? Is everything vapor? Its actually a good question from my perspective, a perspective that is minority.

        People have done well with the games. A substantial part of their actions are to try to preserve the games.The game rules have changed and its upsetting. From my perspective what is desirable is that game rules be based on the physical word we live in not arbitrary decisions. Most value the games and the higher standard of living it has the (false?) potential of assuring. Myself I would prefer a lower standard of living and a game thats not artificial. Would I have preferred the fed not have stepped in 2008? No. You dont always take the medicine even if its good for you. I guess that makes me a hypocrite.

        Do you die if you dont haul a couple tons of rice on your head today on the Mumbai docks? No? Then your in good shape.

    • Falling home prices go alongside this.

  43. Michael Le Merchant says:
  44. The WSJ has a major article called China Reins In Its Belt and Road Program, $1 Trillion Later
    After loans have gone sour and projects have stalled, Beijing is revamping its troubled initiative

    Among other things, the article says:

    “Chinese President Xi Jinping once called the initiative “a project of the century,” but the overhaul exposes limits to his vision to reshape the global order.”

    And

    Chinese banks have already sharply reduced lending for new projects in low-income countries as they focus on cleaning up their existing loan portfolios.

    Nearly 60% of China’s overseas loans are now held by countries considered to be in financial distress, compared with 5% in 2010, according to economists Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch, who have written about international debt.

    China has begun working with other creditors to resolve current debt quagmires.

    This whole fiasco cannot enhance President Xi’s standing. There will also be a lot of debt defaults to write off.

  45. This is a link to a YouTube video I did with Robert Bryce last month. I thought that he did a better-than-average job of researching what I wrote, before interviewing me.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shlZW-SH338&t=748s

    His website is powerhungrypodcast.com

  46. jim says:

    This article is a bit off topic of the current post but still relevant to the main idea of the blog.

    https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2022/09/24/how-to-make-the-oil-industry-go-bust/

    The author looks at the cleanup liabilities for oil companies in Alberta Canada. (It may be later than we think.)

    We have passed / about to pass / will pass shortly, the point at which all the future revenues from oil production would be needed to pay to cap and clean up all of the old wells in Alberta.

    Now of course, these liabilities will for the most part be defaulted on, but it does indicate that we have not be paying the full cost for obtaining oil in either monetary or energetic terms.

    • I suspect there are similar problem many other places around the world. The North Sea comes to mind. Also, the many US oil wells and gas wells.

    • Dennis L. says:

      jim,

      No sarcasm, but the clean up liabilities after the meteor hit at Chicxulub were very large. On a positive note it was rich in iridium so Elon may be on to something; following my advice of mining space and refining next to the sun, deliver to earth via gravity well.

      Life, the passage of time, is always changing and churning things. We are along for the ride. Our present, past and future is written by the gods; all is well with the universe.

      Dennis L.

  47. Wet My Beak says:

    As sad new zealand continues its quest to become a third world country a key component of the strategy has been realised. The currency has all but collapsed against the US Dollar.

    It’s not really a problem because all the smarties got their money out already.

    Imported inflation is set to surge and those on welfare will be making a choice between food and shelter. More and more one sees families on the streets at night huddled to keep warm and protect their children from the attentions of roving gangs.

    The corrupt donkey-orchestrated government is facing certain defeat next year at the polls and the only question is how much more damage they can do to the economy and social fabric of this once proud collection of islands.

    Old people can’t even get to the ATM as scribble faces surge in all the main centres and commit acts of vioence that seldom are punished.

    The world’s worst airline, air new zealand, opened a new route to New York but alas the planes can’t make it back:

    https://onemileatatime.com/news/air-new-zealand-fragile-new-york-flight/

    There is little hope left for this ethno-marxist state and people are fleeing in droves.

    At night one hears the lamentations of dying victims of crime. Hard to get to sleep.

    • It sounds like the airline is trying to sell tickets for a non-stop flight that is further than the range of the airplane. According to the article:

      This flight really pushes the range of Air New Zealand’s Boeing 787-9s. As it stands, Air New Zealand is allegedly having to block 25-35 economy seats on the eastbound flight, and 55 economy seats on the westbound flight, give or take. But even that isn’t enough, allegedly.

      On the September 17 inaugural flight from New York to Auckland, dozens of checked bags had to be offloaded, as the plane was further weight restricted. The airline blamed this on bad weather enroute, requiring additional fuel to be loaded.

      I hope the weather doesn’t change for the worse, after the flight takes off with too much luggage and people.

      Google indicates that there are 5 nonstop flights from Aukland to Los Angeles a day, plus 1 per day from Wellington to Los Angeles and 1 per day from Christchurch to Los Angeles. That sounds like a better approach than attempting to fly the full distance to NYC.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Like those with Vax-Ruined bodies… who claim the cause is ‘Anything but the Vax’ (TM) there remain many MOREONIC NZers who still call Donkey by her first name as if she’s their kindly auntie …

      She is a vile thing… even Clarke wants nothing to do with her. She is a disgrace… she should have stuck with DJing – snorting powder… and getting humpty dumptied in the bathroom stalls at the clubs.

      Look at the mess she’s left in her wake… it’s a total disaster.

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