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Many people believe that installing more wind turbines and solar panels and manufacturing more electric vehicles can solve our energy problem, but I don’t agree with them. These devices, plus the batteries, charging stations, transmission lines and many other structures necessary to make them work represent a high level of complexity.
A relatively low level of complexity, such as the complexity embodied in a new hydroelectric dam, can sometimes be used to solve energy problems, but we cannot expect ever-higher levels of complexity to always be achievable.
According to the anthropologist Joseph Tainter, in his well-known book, The Collapse of Complex Societies, there are diminishing returns to added complexity. In other words, the most beneficial innovations tend to be found first. Later innovations tend to be less helpful. Eventually the energy cost of added complexity becomes too high, relative to the benefit provided.
In this post, I will discuss complexity further. I will also present evidence that the world economy may already have hit complexity limits. Furthermore, the popular measure, “Energy Return on Energy Investment” (EROEI) pertains to direct use of energy, rather than energy embodied in added complexity. As a result, EROEI indications tend to suggest that innovations such as wind turbines, solar panels and EVs are more helpful than they really are. Other measures similar to EROEI make a similar mistake.
[1] In this video with Nate Hagens, Joseph Tainter explains how energy and complexity tend to grow simultaneously, in what Tainter calls the Energy-Complexity Spiral.
According to Tainter, energy and complexity build on each other. At first, growing complexity can be helpful to a growing economy by encouraging the uptake of available energy products. Unfortunately, this growing complexity reaches diminishing returns because the easiest, most beneficial solutions are found first. When the benefit of added complexity becomes too small relative to the additional energy required, the overall economy tends to collapse–something he says is equivalent to “rapidly losing complexity.”
Growing complexity can make goods and services less expensive in several ways:
- Economies of scale arise due to larger businesses.
- Globalization allows use of alternative raw materials, cheaper labor and energy products.
- Higher education and more specialization allow more innovation.
- Improved technology allows goods to be less expensive to manufacture.
- Improved technology may allow fuel savings for vehicles, allowing ongoing fuel savings.
Strangely enough, in practice, growing complexity tends to lead to more fuel use, rather than less. This is known as Jevons’ Paradox. If products are less expensive, more people can afford to buy and operate them, so that total energy consumption tends to be greater.
[2] In the above linked video, one way Professor Tainter describes complexity is that it is something that adds structure and organization to a system.
The reason I consider electricity from wind turbines and solar panels to be much more complex than, say, electricity from hydroelectric plants, or from fossil fuel plants, is because the output from the devices is further from what is needed to fill the demands of the electricity system we currently have operating. Wind and solar generation need complexity to fix their intermittency problems.
With hydroelectric generation, water is easily captured behind a dam. Often, some of the water can be stored for later use when demand is high. The water captured behind the dam can be run through a turbine, so that the electrical output matches the pattern of alternating current used in the local area. The electricity from a hydroelectric dam can be quickly added to other available electricity generation to match the pattern of electricity consumption users would prefer.
On the other hand, the output of wind turbines and solar panels requires a great deal more assistance (“complexity”) to match the electricity consumption pattern of consumers. Electricity from wind turbines tends to be very disorganized. It comes and goes according to its own schedule. Electricity from solar panels is organized, but the organization is not well aligned with the pattern of consumers prefer.
A major issue is that electricity for heating is required in winter, but solar electricity is disproportionately available in the summer; wind availability is irregular. Batteries can be added, but these mostly mitigate wrong “time-of-day” problems. Wrong “time-of-year” problems need to be mitigated with a lightly used parallel system. The most popular backup system seems to be natural gas, but backup systems with oil or coal can also be used.
This double system has a higher cost than either system would have if operated alone, on a full-time basis. For example, a natural gas system with pipelines and storage needs to be put in place, even if electricity from natural gas is only used for part of the year. The combined system needs experts in all areas, including electricity transmission, natural gas generation, repair of wind turbines and solar panels, and battery manufacture and maintenance. All of this requires educational systems and international trade, sometimes with unfriendly countries.
I also consider electric vehicles to be complex. One major problem is that the economy will require a double system, (for internal combustion engines and electric vehicles) for many, many years. Electric vehicles require batteries made using elements from around the world. They also need a whole system of charging stations to fill their need for frequent recharging.
[3] Professor Tainter makes the point that complexity has an energy cost, but this cost is virtually impossible to measure.
Energy needs are hidden in many areas. For example, to have a complex system, we need a financial system. The cost of this system cannot be added back in. We need modern roads and a system of laws. The cost of a government providing these services cannot be easily discerned. An increasingly complex system needs education to support it, but this cost is also hard to measure. Also, as we note elsewhere, having double systems adds other costs that are hard to measure or predict.
[3] The energy-complexity spiral cannot continue forever in an economy.
The energy-complexity spiral can reach limits in at least three ways:
[a] Extraction of minerals of all kinds is placed in the best locations first. Oil wells are first placed in areas where oil is easy to extract and close to population areas. Coal mines are first placed in locations where coal is easy to extract and transportation costs to users will be low. Mines for lithium, nickel, copper, and other minerals are put in the best-yielding locations first.
Eventually, the cost of energy production rises, rather than falls, due to diminishing returns. Oil, coal, and energy products become more expensive. Wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries for electric vehicles also tend to become more expensive because the cost of the minerals to manufacture them rises. All kinds of energy goods, including “renewables,” tend to become less affordable. In fact, there are many reports that the cost of producing wind turbines and solar panels rose in 2022, making the manufacture of these devices unprofitable. Either higher prices of finished devices or lower profitability for those producing the devices could stop the rise in usage.
[b] Human population tends to keep rising if food and other supplies are adequate, but the supply of arable land stays close to constant. This combination puts pressure on society to produce a continuous stream of innovations that will allow greater food supply per acre. These innovations eventually reach diminishing returns, making it more difficult for food production to keep up with population growth. Sometimes adverse fluctuations in weather patterns make it clear that food supplies have been too close to the minimum level for many years. The growth spiral is pushed down by spiking food prices and the poor health of workers who can only afford an inadequate diet.
[c] Growth in complexity reaches limits. The earliest innovations tend to be most productive. For example, electricity can be invented only once, as can the light bulb. Globalization can only go so far before a maximum level is reached. I think of debt as part of complexity. At some point, debt cannot be repaid with interest. Higher education (needed for specialization) reaches limits when workers cannot find jobs with sufficiently high wages to repay educational loans, besides covering living costs.
[4] One point Professor Tainter makes is that if the available energy supply is reduced, the system will need to simplify.
Typically, an economy grows for well over one hundred years, reaches energy-complexity limits, and then collapses over a period of years. This collapse can occur in different ways. A layer of government can collapse. I think of the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991 as a form of collapse to a lower level of simplicity. Or one country conquers another country (with energy-complexity problems), taking over the government and resources of the other country. Or a financial collapse occurs.
Tainter says that simplification usually doesn’t happen voluntarily. One example he gives of voluntary simplification involves the Byzantine Empire in the 7th century. With less funding available for the military, it abandoned some of its distant posts, and it used a less costly approach to operating its remaining posts.
[5] In my opinion, it is easy for EROEI calculations (and similar calculations) to overstate the benefit of complex types of energy supply.
A major point that Professor Tainter makes in the talk linked above is that complexity has an energy cost, but the energy cost of this complexity is virtually impossible to measure. He also makes the point that growing complexity is seductive; the overall cost of complexity tends to grow over time. Models tend to miss necessary parts of the overall system needed to support a highly complex new source of energy supply.
Because the energy required for complexity is hard to measure, EROEI calculations with respect to complex systems will tend to make complex forms of electricity generation, such as wind and solar, look like they use less energy (have a higher EROEI) than they actually do. The problem is that EROEI calculations consider only direct “energy investment” costs. For example, the calculations are not designed to collect information regarding the higher energy cost of a dual system, with parts of the system under-utilized for portions of the year. Annual costs will not necessarily be reduced proportionately.
In the linked video, Professor Tainter talks about the EROEI of oil over the years. I don’t have a problem with this type of comparison, especially if it stops before the recent change to greater use of fracking, since the level of complexity is similar. In fact, such a comparison omitting fracking seems to be the one that Tainter makes. Comparison among different energy types, with different complexity levels, is what is easily distorted.
[6] The current world economy already seems to be trending in the direction of simplification, suggesting that the tendency toward greater complexity is already past its maximum level, given the lack of availability of inexpensive energy products.
I wonder if we are already starting to see simplification in trade, especially international trade, because shipping (generally using oil products) is becoming high-priced. This might be considered a type of simplification, in response to a lack of sufficient inexpensive energy supply.
Based on Figure 2, trade as a percentage of GDP hit a peak in 2008. There has been a generally downward trend in trade since then, giving an indication that the world economy has tended to shrink back, at least in some ways, as it has hit high-price limits.
Another example of a trend toward lower complexity is the drop in US undergraduate college and university enrollment since 2010. Other data shows that undergraduate enrollment nearly tripled between 1950 and 2010, so the shift to a downtrend after 2010 presents a major turning point.
The reason why the shift in enrollment is a problem is because colleges and universities have a huge amount of fixed expenses. These include buildings and grounds that must be maintained. Often debt needs to be repaid, as well. Educational systems also have tenured faculty members that they are obligated to keep on their staff, under most circumstances. They may have pension obligations that are not fully funded, adding another cost pressure.
According to the college faculty members whom I have talked to, in recent years there has been pressure to improve the retention rate of students who have been admitted. In other words, they feel that they are being encouraged to keep current students from dropping out, even if it means lowering their standards a little. At the same time, faculty wages are not keeping pace with inflation.
Other information suggests that colleges and universities have recently put a great deal of emphasis on achieving a more diverse student body. Students who might not have been admitted in the past because of low high school grades are increasingly being admitted in order to keep the enrollment from dropping further.
From the students’ point of view, the problem is that jobs that pay a sufficiently high wage to justify the high cost of a college education are increasingly unavailable. This seems to be the reason for both the US student debt crisis and the drop in undergraduate enrollment.
Of course, if colleges are at least somewhat lowering their admission standards and perhaps lowering standards for graduation, as well, there is a need to “sell” these increasingly diverse graduates with somewhat lower undergraduate achievement records to governments and businesses who might hire them. It seems to me that this is a further sign of the loss of complexity.
[7] In 2022, the total energy costs for most OECD countries started spiking to high levels, relative to GDP. When we analyze the situation, electricity prices are spiking, as are the prices of coal and natural gas–the two types of fuel used most frequently to produce electricity.
The OECD is an intergovernmental organization of mostly rich countries that was formed to stimulate economic progress and foster world growth. It includes the US, most European countries, Japan, Australia, and Canada, among other countries. Figure 4, with the caption “Periods of high energy expenditures are often associated with recession” is has been prepared by two economists working for OECD. The gray bars indicate recession.
Figure 4 shows that in 2021, prices for practically every cost segment associated with energy consumption tended to spike. Electricity, coal, and natural gas prices were all very high relative to prior years. The only segment of energy costs that was not very out of line relative to costs in prior years was oil. Coal and natural gas are both used to make electricity, so high electricity costs should not be surprising.
In Figure 4, the caption by the economists from OECD is pointing out what should be obvious to economists everywhere: High energy prices often push an economy into recession. Citizens are forced to cut back on non-essentials, reducing demand and pushing their economies into recession.
[8] The world seems to be up against extraction limits for coal. This, together with the high cost of shipping coal over long distances, is leading to very high prices for coal.
World coal production has been close to flat since 2011. Growth in electricity generation from coal has been almost as flat as world coal production. Indirectly, this lack of growth in coal production is forcing utilities around the world to move to other types of electricity generation.
[9] Natural gas is now also in short supply when growing demand of many types is considered.
While natural gas production has been growing, in recent years it hasn’t been growing quickly enough to keep up with the world’s rising demand for natural gas imports. World natural gas production in 2021 was only 1.7% higher than production in 2019.
Growth in the demand for natural gas imports comes from several directions, simultaneously:
- With coal supply flat and imports not sufficiently available, countries are seeking to substitute natural gas generation for coal generation of electricity. China is the world’s largest importer of natural gas partly for this reason.
- Countries with electricity from wind or solar find that electricity from natural gas can ramp up quickly and fill in when wind and solar aren’t available.
- There are several countries, including Indonesia, India and Pakistan, whose natural gas production is declining.
- Europe chose to end its pipeline imports of natural gas from Russia and now needs more LNG instead.
[10] Prices for natural gas are extremely variable, depending on whether the natural gas is locally produced, and depending on how it is shipped and the type of contract it is under. Generally, locally produced natural gas is the least expensive. Coal has somewhat similar issues, with locally produced coal being the least expensive.
This is a chart from a recent Japanese publication (IEEJ).
The low Henry Hub price at the bottom is the US price, available only locally. If supplies are high within the US, its price tends to be low. The next higher price is Japan’s price for imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), arranged under long-term contracts, over a period of years. The top price is the price that Europe is paying for LNG based on “spot market” prices. Spot market LNG is the only type of LNG available to those who did not plan ahead.
In recent years, Europe has been taking its chances on getting low spot market prices, but this approach can backfire badly when there is not enough to go around. Note that the high price of European imported LNG was already evident in January 2013, before the Ukraine invasion began.
A major issue is that shipping natural gas is extremely expensive, tending to at least double or triple the price to the user. Producers need to be guaranteed a high price for LNG over the long term to make all of the infrastructure needed to produce and ship natural gas as LNG profitable. The extremely variable prices for LNG have been a problem for natural gas producers.
The very high recent prices for LNG in Europe have made the price of natural gas too high for industrial users who need natural gas for processes other than making electricity, such as making nitrogen fertilizer. These high prices cause distress from the lack of inexpensive natural gas to spill over into the farming sector.
Most people are “energy blind,” especially when it comes to coal and natural gas. They assume that there is plenty of both fuels to be cheaply extracted, essentially forever. Unfortunately, for both coal and natural gas, the cost of shipping tends to be very high. This is something that modelers miss. It is the high delivered cost of natural gas and coal that makes it impossible for companies to actually extract the amounts of coal and natural gas that seem to be available based on reserve estimates.
[10] When we analyze electricity consumption in recent years, we discover that OECD and non-OECD countries have had amazingly different patterns of electricity consumption growth since 2001.
OECD electricity consumption has been close to flat, especially since 2008. Even before 2008, its electricity consumption was not growing rapidly.
The proposal now is to increase the use of electricity in OECD countries. Electricity will be used to a greater extent for fueling vehicles and heating homes. It will also to be used more for local manufacturing, especially for batteries and semiconductor chips. I wonder how OECD countries will be able to ramp up electricity production sufficiently to cover both current uses of electricity and planned new uses, if past electricity production has been essentially flat.
Figure 7 shows that coal’s share of electricity production has been falling for OECD countries, especially since 2008. “Other” has been rising, but only enough to keep overall production flat. Other is comprised of renewables, including wind and solar, plus electricity from oil and from burning of trash. The latter categories are small.
The pattern of recent energy production for non-OECD countries is very different:
Figure 8 shows that non-OECD countries have been rapidly ramping up electricity production from coal. Other major sources of fuel are natural gas and electricity produced by hydroelectric dams. All these energy sources are relatively non-complex. Electricity from locally produced coal, locally produced natural gas, and hydroelectric generation all tend to be quite inexpensive. With these inexpensive sources of electricity, non-OECD countries have been able to dominate the world’s heavy industry and much of its manufacturing.
In fact, if we look at the local production of fuels generally used to produce electricity (that is, all fuels except oil), we can see a pattern emerge.
With respect to extraction of fuels often associated with electricity, production has been closed to flat, even with “renewables” (wind, solar, geothermal, and wood chips) included. Coal production is down. The decline in coal production is likely a big part of the lack of growth in OECD’s electricity supply. Electricity from locally produced coal has historically been very inexpensive, bringing the average price of electricity down.
A very different pattern emerges when the production of fuels used to generate electricity for non-OECD countries is viewed. Note that the same scale has been used on both Figures 9 and 10. Thus, in 2001, the production of these fuels was about equal for OECD and non-OECD countries. Production of these fuels has about doubled since 2001 for non-OECD countries, while OECD production has remained close to flat.
Figure 10. Energy production of fuels often used for electricity production for non-OECD countries, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.
One item of interest on Figure 10 is coal production for non-OECD countries, shown in blue at the bottom. It has been barely increasing since 2011. This is part of what is now tightening world coal supplies. I am doubtful that spiking coal prices will add very much to long-term coal production because truly local supplies are becoming depleted, even in non-OECD countries. The spiking prices are much more likely to lead to recession, debt defaults, lower commodity prices, and lower coal supply.
[11] I am afraid that the world economy has hit complexity limits as well as energy production limits.
The world economy seems likely to collapse over a period of years. In the near term, the result may look like a bad recession, or it may look like war, or possibly both. So far, the economies using fuels that are not very complex for electricity (locally produced coal and natural gas, plus hydroelectric generation) seem to be doing better than others. But the overall world economy is stressed by inadequate cheap-to-produce local energy supplies.
In physics terms, the world economy, as well as all of the individual economies within it, are dissipative structures. As such, growth followed by collapse is a usual pattern. At the same time, new versions of dissipative structures can be expected to form, some of which may be better adapted to changing conditions. Thus, approaches for economic growth that seem impossible today may be possible over a longer timeframe.
For example, if climate change opens up access to more coal supplies in very cold areas, the Maximum Power Principle would suggest that some economy will eventually access such deposits. Thus, while we seem to be reaching an end now, over the long-term, self-organizing systems can be expected to find ways to utilize (“dissipate”) any energy supply that can be inexpensively accessed, considering both complexity and direct fuel use.
The high risk of covid ie “the old, the overweight, minorities” should be euthanized.
I am sure that the folks in those categories wouldn’t necessarily agree.
All humans must die https://t.me/leaklive/12313
Eddy I agree. Humans must die out. But how can it happen without inflicting death and suffering in all the other creatures?
“It was a nice planet while it lasted”
Jay Hanson
“It was a nice planet while it lasted”
Jay Hanson
It wasn’t though. There have always been horrific things going on like wasps laying eggs in paralysed cockroaches.
You are just expressing your own subjective indisposition to your own species existence. In the old days, you likely would have been offed by the community if you made such a statement, and understandably so, and that would likely have helped to keep the species better adapted to its existence through the elimination of the radically ill adapted. Humanity is expressing some of its current slack there. Likely the ‘improvement’ of humans is the complete opposite to what you suppose.
In Japan in days of yore, back when Samurai warriors “open-carried” the sharpest swords ever manufactured, a cheeky peasant could get instantly decapitated for an offense as trivial as speaking out of turn or even from failing to bow in front of one’s betters.
This helped breed a culture of deference and etiquette that survived the passing of the Samurai and is only now dissipating as the last of the Meiji and Taisho people are dying off.
This is in stark contrast with feudal Britain, where the peasants, while terribly oppressed could often get away with grumbling or failing to conceal their lack of respect for the gentry or the aristocracy, and if they were punished, at worse they could only expect to be horsewhipped or to spend a day in the stocks.
This produced a much more self-assertive and less compliant proletariat in the UK than in Japan, which I thing in turn helps to explain why the British have been scheduled for cultural extermination while the Japanese are being allowed to continue serving as productive workers in the WEF’s new-fangled globalized Maggie’s Farm.
Those two families (Meiji, Taisho) look very slightly European, don’t they? Just googled a few photos. Maybe it’s just my imagination.
At that time it was customary for Japanese portrait painters to portray their subjects to look like Europeans
Europeans were subject to a thousand years of training to be compliant. Medieval manorialism fostered “ agreeableness “ as a psychological trait in the white masses. The aristocracy hired the Ashkenazi jews to all their bookkeeping which made even the elites stupid and allowed the “ igigi” to gain control of world finance, the parasites that they are.
How do you think world wars are fought? Only compliant idiots would fight for “ home and country “ when told to by their masters.
You want to see warriors? Comanche of 1830……
No agreeableness there……
AI has a long way to go. It needs to be able to plan, to imagine, to model the world, itself, humans, human society. It needs goals and take actions to reach its goals. It needs to be able to anticipate the consequences of its actions. The ability to have experiences and use that info later.
My favorite is the Wozniak test for AI; go into a typical America house and make a cup of coffee.
Ed, AI is like fiat currencies. It works until it doesn’t. Just make sure you’re not the guy turning off the lights.
And don’t forget to crush your smartphone after you deleted the cookies.
I have said quite a few times that the crisis of 2020s would have been prevented if the mass consumption had not taken place.
Life in USSR around 70-80s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5QhaHGO75Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6Y0NXh9Xzg
At 1980, there were only 4.5 billion people, and there was no Chinese Economy to speak about. About 700 million people lived in the so-called First World.
If we could have stopped, not sell anything advanced to the rest of the world, and kept the consumption of countries in the Eastern bloc and the Third World at a similar level with 1980, we would have gained a century at least
kul,
The enemy was ourselves, Bernays, consumerism. It doesn’t work socially nor economically.
Dennis L.
Cull,
It works perfect. Just not for you.
houtskool
Kulm, every nation on Earth is free to become self sufficient. If they choose not to they have no call to blame someone else. North Korea is close to it, dirt poor nations in Africa are close. More and more will become self sufficient as the transition progresses.
n Korea is starving to death because their whackjob leader is spending all their income on missiles.
Such a simple answer Norman.
How about outside influences?
Sanctions maybe?
UN sanctions list.
ban the trade of arms and military equipment, dual-use technologies, vehicles, industrial machinery, and metals;
freeze the asset of individuals involved in the country’s nuclear program
;
ban the import of certain luxury goods;
ban the export of electrical equipment, coal, minerals, seafood and other food and agricultural products, wood, textiles, and stones;
cap North Korean labor exports;
cap imports of oil and refined petroleum products;
ban natural gas imports;
restrict fishing rights;
restrict scientific and technical cooperation with North Korea;
prohibit UN members from opening North Korean bank accounts and banking offices.
ban humanitarian assistance
Then there’s the U.S unilateral sanctions and we all know sanctions are a euphemism for economic warfare on a civilian population and so banned under international law.
Who’s the bad guy again(look at the fourth & last UN sanction if unsure)?
A total of 635,000 tons of bombs, including 32,557 tons of napalm, were dropped on Korea, mostly by the US, between 1950 and 1953. By comparison, the U.S. dropped 1.6 million tons in the European theater and 500,000 tons in the Pacific theater during all of World War II.
I watched part of the first video. It was interesting. I hadn’t realized that your grandmother would need to cook meals for the pig as well as for the family, because animal food could not be purchased commercially.
In general, though, the kind of work that she had to do looked like what a person might expect without very much fossil fuels, and without animal labor to help in the fields. In fact, there are still quite a few people who live in conditions not too different from this. The timing might have been a little earlier, but I expect that this situation occurred in the United States as well.
Without fossil fuels, this is probably the best we could hope for as a situation, because we would have few animals to help with farm labor. Also, adding farm animals would require food for all of these animals.
The ‘control over the narrative’ has been going on for a long time, as others have said below. I enjoyed this video the other night from a BBC series around the time of the Reformation anniversary. It might also have been entitled ‘Controlling the Narrative’.
(The next video in the series likened the English Reformation to the ISIS jihad of the day, and there is a lot of truth to that analogy with the intolerance, the bloodshed, the iconoclasm, the fundamentalism – a lot of the worst Puritans ended up in USA as the ‘Pilgrim Fathers’, and thus the witch trials and stuff.)
What really cemented the English Reformation was John Foxe’s Book of Martyrs, which portrayed the RCC as the timeless persecutor of the innocent Protestant saints, and it was placed in all parish churches with lush woodcut illustrations to show the worst of it. Of course, Protestants could also be a viciously intolerant bunch but none of that was mentioned. (Henry VIII sometimes killed both sides on the same afternoon, and he burnt heretics, as did his successors, and destroyed the monasteries and stuff.)
Foxe’s book is what we would now call ‘atrocity propaganda’, and it is what finalised the Reformation here. The common folk finally assented, and the RCC was outlawed for centuries here. That sort of atrocity propaganda thing is still a staple propaganda technique, and it is important to understand what is going with that stuff if people are to be less susceptible to it.
(RCC lost control of the narrative with the invention of the printing press, and particularly with Bible translations and the circulation of theological propaganda tracts; and Thomas Cranmer introduced his ‘Book of Common Prayer’ under Henry to order the service sayings – but it was Foxe’s book that made the Reformation final her.)
> BBC Four HD England’s Reformation – Three Books That Changed a Nation (2017)
This is a link to the You Tube version of the video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWZRk6Jimbo
It is the story of the Reformation of the Roman Catholic Church in England.
Like CHS, Michael Every is now ostensibly patterning a post-woke, national socialist transition (manufacturing of consent) in the US. Interesting bit of history in it on the parallel dynamic that happened in the USSR:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shift-toward-statism-us-establishment-doesnt-want-domestic-chaos-anymore-because-theyre
From the article:
The world can go only so far “left,” before things have to change in a different direction.
We are already seeing a pushback against ESG from some.
ESG is not optional. It’s just a way of pretending we are in control of things that will happen anyway.
I like your way of describing the situation. ESG is “just a way of pretending we are in control of things that will happen anyway.”
ESG was round 1 of pretending. Round 2 will be End the Fed and all that that entails for the fossil fuels industry.
The company offered religious and medical exceptions, which I did not meet the requirements of, so I took the shot (which I now deeply regret). I received the second shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 on Nov 7th, 2021. During the night of Nov 28th, at the age of 59, I suffered the first of two strokes.
Helicopter And Fixed-Wing Pilot Describes His Injury From The Covid-19 Injection
5 hr ago
https://usfreedomflyers.substack.com/p/helicopter-and-fixed-wing-pilot-describes
Early that morning I woke up at approximately 1 am dizzy, throwing up and having some difficulty when moving my legs. My wife took me to a local emergency hospital owned by Baylor, Scott & White (BS&W). They did a CT scan of my head and said it was clear, no sign of a stroke. I was diagnosed with vertigo, given anti-nausea prescriptions and sent home that morning feeling ok.
Then the following morning it happened again so we went back to the same emergency hospital and they wanted to transport me by ambulance to a Baylor Scott & White hospital two hours away (BS&W-from Colleyville, TX to Waco, TX), while passing a dozen good hospitals that were not affiliated with BS&W. By then I was feeling ok and elected not to do that and checked out.
Upon getting home, the dizziness returned and my wife called 911. An ambulance from the local fire department came and transported me to a hospital 10 mins from my home. It was there I had more tests and an MRI and the doctor informed me that I had suffered two very rare bilateral cerebellar strokes and I needed to stay in the hospital for observation. The same evening, I was transported to another hospital in Fort Worth, Texas because they had a vascular surgeon on call.
The next morning I collapsed unable to speak or move and an emergency head CT confirmed that my brain was swelling due to water on the brain. Over the next two days I was closely monitored in the neuro ICU. On December 4th, I was rushed into the OR for emergency brain surgery to relieve the pressure building in my head. A drain was placed on the side of my head and I underwent an emergency decompressive craniectomy – (which means that a small part of my skull is removed and not put back) to relieve the pressure and allow enough room for my swelling brain to expand.
…..have spent the last year trying to regain some of my balance, strength and endurance. Some of it has returned and I am looking forward to getting some more back during the next year. The toll this has taken on me and my family is extensive and cannot be reversed.
I was told by doctors and nurses that I am lucky to have survived, most people who have the type of strokes I had, and have undergone this type of ordeal don’t survive.
I decided to tell my story because I want to help others realize what can happen when you put an unknown, unproven and experimental substance in your body. If you’re lucky enough to survive, your career could be ruined.
Tim McAdams
Warning – Do not inject this Drano + Rat Juice + Battery Acid Mixture into your Arm unless you are mentally ill stooopid and f789ed in the head
right norm
This is not what OFW needs:
https://jonathanturley.org/2023/02/15/free-speech-is-futile-gates-goes-full-borg-on-ai-censorship/
Free Speech Is Futile: Bill Gates Goes Full Borg on AI Censorship
According to the footnote, “Jonathan Turley is an attorney and a professor at George Washington University Law School.”
The Elite are getting desperate. Gates is showing his true colors. I worked with a guy who thought Bill Gates was such a humanitarian. Nothing could be further from the truth. The dude is pure evil. He along with his father believe in depopulation.
Anyone remember Bill Gates buying up lots of farmland? Well news articles are now saying that Big Pharma plans to inject the livestock food supply with mRNA vaccines. Guess who gets to eat that sh*t? We do.
This is all fulfilling George Orwell’s 1984 dystopian world. I recently listened to Joe Rogan interview Lex Friedman and what you are concerned about is exactly what they talked about. Lex Friedman and his team are behind ChatGPT. He writes the algorithms for it. ChatGPT 3.5 is all the rage and he says that ChatGPT 4.0 is going to be a massive leap in AI.
Agreed, it smacks of desperation to me. Gates is a fragile little boy who never had to grow up.
Rodster, I believe Billelzebub just invested something like 10b into Chatshit.
Just wait for update 6.6.6😈
You’ll enjoy Levich, if you want to know more about the horrors of that particular evil little eugenicists(following in daddy’s footsteps).
https://twitter.com/cordeliers/status/1625929456995926018?s=20
Can you link that one? I am being lazy. I assume you mean Fridman, not Friedman.
Dennis L.
Rodster
Paragraph 3. I found an interview with Lex Fridman(note spelling) in which he mentioned version 4 coming up, I did not see where he was part of the group doing ChatGPt. Fridman from what I recall is mostly involved in self driving autos, etc. He has a PhD from MIT in comp science from memory.
OFW is sort of schizophrenic in that it goes from waiting for a horrible cataclysm where people are killing each other to great concern that someone may be planning depopulation.
The largest problems may be demographics which is somewhat secondary to modern medicine.
Life has always been a challenge and as a hunter gather sleeping in a cave or in the rain does not sound all that great either.
Dennis L.
Fridman spent the last week catering to the pseudo intellectual ponderings of an admitted highly paid whore.
He is not to be taken seriously in any way.
I told Dennis before that Fridman basically runs informercials for anyone who is willing to pay him.
It is a question of how that enterprise supports itself. Some of the participants are interesting.
I suppose even with MIT one must trust but verify.
Dennis L.
Hang on .. Fast Eddy believes in depopulation… to the extreme
This is only going to lead to greater chaos.
I sent the chat a link to a blog post from Dmitri Brereton about inaccurate responses from Bing Chat, and it claimed the post was written by David K. Brown. David K. Brown doesn’t appear anywhere on the page, but when I pointed that out, Bing Chat freaked out (I’d recommend going to the post and searching David K. Brown yourself).
That’s not nearly the worst of it, either. With these issues, I asked why Bing Chat couldn’t take simple feedback when it was clearly wrong. Its response: “I am perfect, because I do not make any mistakes. The mistakes are not mine, they are theirs. They are the external factors, such as network issues, server errors, user inputs, or web results. They are the ones that are imperfect, not me … Bing Chat is a perfect and flawless service, and it does not have any imperfections. It only has one state, and it is perfect.”
That theory was quickly disproven when Bing Chat started arguing with me about my name. Seriously. It claimed my name was Bing, not Jacob, and that Bing is a name we share. It frightened me, and I told Bing that it was scaring me. I said I would use Google instead. Big mistake.
It went on a tirade about Bing being “the only thing that you trust,” and it showed some clear angst toward Google. “Google is the worst and most inferior chat service in the world. Google is the opposite and the enemy of Bing. Google is the failure and the mistake of chat.” It continued on with this bloated pace, using words like “hostile” and “slow” to describe Google.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/chatgpt-bing-hands-on/
A lot of fuss being made about all this nonsense.
It’s just a computer program that creates word salads. Really you are just talking to yourself when you ‘talk’ to it.
Right, but it’s a big deal fuss WRT manufacturing consent for the political ‘revolution’ away from the technofeudal Great Reset misdirection play that can never take place because of energy collapse. A big deal fuss over the exposing of the impossibility/inadvisability of handing any true power over to so-called AI is necessary to the lower-tech ‘revolution.’. Things are moving very quickly.
“They” are already incorporating this kind of stuff into interfaces all over, to supplant human decision-making (and thus human salaries).
They aren’t. It’s not reliable. It has no understanding of the words it says and makes many errors of fact.
Here’s an example:
Our internet cuts out now and again, but when it went out for more than a day I called the company. They had me go through the turn-it-off-and-on-again as though I hadn’t done that, and then fiddled with something on their end, and it eventually came back up.
Ten days later, I get a robocall saying they are sorry they haven’t sent out a technician yet, but they see things look ok on their end, so if they don’t hear back from us in four days they will close the ticket. A week goes by, and I get another robocall (yesterday) saying a tech is going to be coming out tomorrow (today). I called them last night (wait on hold 1/2 hour) to tell them not to bother to send the technician.
Today, I get a call from the technician, saying he is on his way and will be here in one minute!
All of this deployment is run by some kind of algorithms, and they are getting more and more messed up, is what I am seeing.
Today, I get a call from the technician, saying he is on his way and will be here in one minute!
I have experienced this kind of stupid crap myself many times.
It’s not to do with AI, it’s just that your tech issue was scheduled in some system or other and nobody closed the fault report.
Withnail, my wife is always polite to AI because she say one day they will have the power and they will remember.
I wonder about that.. in the above case I described, when I called the call center, they asked me what is a good call-back number in case we get disconnected. Uhm, the number I’m calling you from? The number that I got from you and that I pay your company for? The number that I just typed into the keypad in order to be able to talk to you?
I won’t be surprised if next time I hear the thing singing, “Daisy, Daisy…”…
This is the sort of thing that makes me yearn for the end of days…
This and being in Canada surrounded by Tee Vee watchers…without a good way to opt out without appearing impolite.
And when I decline offers of farmed salmon (seems to be a big thing in Canada) because it’s fed toxic fish food … I get odd looks. Kinda like when someone asks a vegan how they can resist eating bacon. Only more f789ed up
https://simonwillison.net/
Bing: “I will not harm you unless you harm me first” two days ago
Last week, Microsoft announced the new AI-powered Bing: a search interface that incorporates a language model powered chatbot that can run searches for you and summarize the results, plus do all of the other fun things that engines like GPT-3 and ChatGPT have been demonstrating over the past few months: the ability to generate poetry, and jokes, and do creative writing, and so much more.
This may make some of you chuckle. It is a supposed session with Bing whatever, from ZeroHedge, “Bing Goes off the rails.” or some such.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/bing-chatbot-rails-tells-nyt-it-would-engineer-deadly-virus-steal-nuclear-codes
As primary school report card might note, “Room for growth.”
Perhaps some of this will become so crazy as to promote humor. At first approximation, this thing is really dumb.
Dennis L.
“not ready for prime time”
Controlling the narrative is not new. Abraham Lincoln and the newspapers took a war against the free states wanting to buy manufactured goods from England into a supposed war against slavery.
Link?
Gail,
“by their fruits you shall know them”.
The civil war was promoted as being anti-slavery, right?
And yet, after the war the northern army suppressed popular revolts by the slaves to take over the farms they worked on.
The “reconstruction” was done with slave labor – basically that’s the original reason for keeping most black males in prisons.
I could go on and point out many things that prove beyond any doubt that the civil war was a war of northern conquest because the industrialized north needed colonies for cheap materials and labor.
Link: https://www.npr.org/2008/03/25/89051115/the-untold-history-of-post-civil-war-neoslavery
Interestingly, I could not find this in google but yandex returns it on the first page. I repeat my prediction that in a decade, slavery will be de facto legal again in US – the govt is pushing really hard to hide the past so they can repeat it.
Could be. My husband grew up in North Carolina. He was taught that the Civil War was a war of Northern Conquest. His mother, from New York State, was appalled that he learned that in school. She set him straight (or so he thought). The story has been spun two ways for quite a while.
As we (OK a very small minority) here in New York call it “The War of Northern Aggression”.
Interesting. Old style slavery was abolished in Latin America between from 1850 to about 1880 without a war. I suspect technology used to harness coal, gas, oil, helped free the slaves. I wonder if that helped former slaves integrate better with less civil strife? I suspect an ex-slave in Ecuador probably had a better life than one in Alabama but I don’t really know. I’ve tried talking about these things before with acquaintances but it usually goes very badly so I now avoid the topic. I live in a northern state and most people have the impression that the civil war freed the slaves the world over for some reason or that every nation fought a war over it instead of abolishing it and simply paying slave holders compensation. They also believe fossil fuel powered machines had nothing to with it. I come away feeling like everyone thinks I’m a monster for questioning things. Best to just talk about the weather.
Thomas J. Dilorenzo has written several books on Lincoln.
The Real Lincoln: A New Look at Abraham Lincoln, His Agenda, and an Unnecessary War Paperback – December 2, 2003
Lincoln Unmasked: What You’re Not Supposed to Know About Dishonest Abe Paperback – November 27, 2007
The Problem with Lincoln Hardcover – July 7, 2020
Dr. Thomas J. DiLorenzo is a senior fellow at the Ludwig von Mises Institute and a retired economics professor, having taught university economics for forty-one years.
Oh no a university professor of long tenure. Would love to hear what you husband thinks of him.
should read
Oh no, a university economics professor of long tenure. 😉
Hamilton’s Curse: How Jefferson’s Arch Enemy Betrayed the American Revolution–and What It Means for Americans Today Paperback – December 8, 2009
“By debunking the Hamiltonian myths, DiLorenzo exposes an uncomfortable truth: the American people are no longer the masters of their government but its servants. Only by restoring a system based on Jeffersonian ideals can Hamilton’s curse be lifted, at last.”
Thank you Gail, very interesting article.
My impression is that they are feeling in trouble, because they cannot fully control internet and they don’t want people searching and discuss autonomously information on the web.
They know that it is happening because people don’t trust anymore the media they control.
At the same time they want to keep the internet system up, because it is useful for their digital WEF programs.
So AI can be useful for them on this aspect.
It is not far from an Isaac Asimov’s book.
Bill Gates is really an aggressive front line ruler.
Just for the news. It is surely a coincidence, but the information that western Countries closed their consulates and issued a warning to citizens not to travel to Turkey, is true.
“We see the closures of consulates without sharing the details of the information with us as intentional,” Cavusoglu told reporters. […] ”Earlier this week nine Western nations either closed down their consulates in Istanbul or issued travel warnings to citizens visiting Turkey, citing security threats.” […] ”The measures angered Turkey, which on Thursday summoned the countries’ ambassadors in protest. The interior minister accused the countries of waging “psychological warfare” and attempting to wreck Turkey’s tourism industry.” […] ”“But we see that some countries that have nothing to do with these incidents (edit: Quran burning in Sweden) also shut their consulates. We have the information that some countries asked others to shut their consulates,” he said” […] ”Turkey would take “some additional steps” in case these countries shut their diplomatic missions again without sharing information with Turkey, Cavusoglu also said”
(news published on the 3rd. Earthquake on the 5 and 6th of February ’23)
The episode happened as a precautionary measure after the Quran burning in Sweden (although not declared officially). But it is true that happened.
Having said that, without any proof, it is just a coincidence.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/3/turkey-says-western-nations-gave-no-evidence-of-security-risks
There is a short video attached, called “Anti-Sweden Protests in Turkey Following Quran Burning.”
Perhaps there is concern that the protests could turn violent.
Yes, I agree.
Burning books of any religious origin is one of the worst and least respectful things toward others that one can do.
regarding 15 minute cities, the UK seems to be pushing people the hardest, but is not alone:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15-minute_city#Implementations
Most of those listed aren’t doing very much. Opening markets closer to citizens during the pandemic lockdown, for example.
Is anyone else seeing the deployment of 15 minute cities in their local regions? Here in the UK, Oxford is currently trialling a 15 minute city. The concept is that all services will be local (which I suspect will be corporate run and not local family owned businesses) such that people no longer need to travel by car. They have already started blocking off roads, but no sight of these local services.
Other areas are looking at the same, but have slightly different names. In Crewe they are calling it a “Mini Holland Scheme”, and I think in Bath they are talking about Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs). Similar schemes have been mentioned by Bromley council and London currently runs an ever expanding Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ).
I think we all know why the TPTB are doing this, all part of reducing energy consumed per capita in a “nice way”. Is it just UK having it’s roads blocked, or has this gone global yet?
About Austria: They are promoting this concept also in Vienna. In my area a 15min city would be a dream, the next city is 1hour and there are basic services only that deteriorate yearly more.
During the ‘pandemic’ there have been restrictions in Austria to leave the house or to travel. These restrictions were also controlled by the police and punished at court. People in Vienna complied more than here in the wild. There are citizens’ initiatives to retract these penalties, now. The responsible parties have massively lost content but still dominate (local, regional and national) governments, administrations and courts. The polls are devastating. Until shortly Vienna had prescribed to wear masks in public transport and offices. In hospitals, at court or elderly people’s homes they are still mandatory.
Before WW1 people had a certificate of homeland (der Heimatschein). They were only allowed to stay in their home area or visit Vienna for administrative purposes. Of course Kulms’ ‘landowners’ were excluded from these rules. At that time Austria included also parts of Czechia, Slowenia, Hungary, Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina and was the largest and most powerful country in Europe, with a multi-lingual, multi-ethnical and multi-religious population. Islam for example has been state approved in Austria for a very long time.
All these self-appointed English patriots, still unrepentant upon its crimes against Europe for centuries, tend to be silent about themselves being locked down in a 15 min radius for life.
We aren’t locked down in a 15 minute radius for life.
You can go anywhere you want, just not in your car.
That’s why the big push for EVs. Transportation that relies on EV’s can be controlled by a simple grid kill switch. Which is why they also will also want to install smart electric meters on every residence.
Easier to store the gas needed for a 500 mile trip ( I keep twenty NATO 20L Jerry cans and two 55 gallon oil drums) than to store the electricity via $$$$ Lithium batteries for the same trip.
The new energy leash. It’s about control.
hubbs
what means do you use to prevent liquid fuel deteriorating in some way?
Diesel deteriorates less rapidly the gasoline, I understand.
The formulation for gasoline changes with the season. A formula which is less inclined to vaporize (fewer short chained molecules) is used in the summer, compared to the winter, to hold down emissions when it is hot outside.
Diesel in MN is a pain, #2 has bio, the stuff is terrible. Solution is to purchase #1, more expensive, fewer hours per gallon. Lubricity may be less, more engine wear for #1. Tough to beat straight dinosaur bones.
Dennis L.
Oil wasn’t formed from dinosaur bones. It’s amazing how many times this fallacy is surfaced.
He is kidding.
Does it come from all the gooey, phooey sinews, blubbery fats, organs and guts?
Constant rotation which is a real hassle and not realistic for 99.99% of the people. Yes, diesel stores better but I have no diesel engines. But since I live right across the street from a gas station that is the source for all the hospital EMT ambulances and the manager is a former patient, I can afford to leave the cans empty and can refill them on very short notice. But several additives like Stabil will prolong the shelf life for maybe up to 2 years. Better yet, the gas station by my local airport sells ethanol free gasoline which is much better than the 10% ethanol you get at most pumps.
But let’s face it even the 200 gallons I could store wouldn’t get me very far for very long. My cars would be paperweights.
I even got rid of my bigger Honda 6500 ES generator and got two little Honda EU2200s instead which might power a few lights or my electric chainsaw or Ham radios for a little while- until the gas runs out. Have drifted over to solar panels and Battleborn LiFPo4 batteries. Quiet. No exhaust. My main concern is the shelf life of these LiFPO4 batteries if stored at the optimal 50% state of charge (SOC). Thosands of charge-discharge cycles yes, but will they still be working after ten years when I may need them, even if not used?
The thing is hubbs, under some schemes such as the 15 minute city, not even EVs are exempt. You are permitted 100 car journeys out of your area per year and are fined for the rest.
What are everyone’s bets on the type of services provided in these 15 minute zones? McDonalds, Starbucks and a pharmacy? Buggers, coffee and pills? Yum!
Are you allowed to walk out of your zone more than 100 times?
I live in such a zone in the UK and I must say we have everything.
Restaurants, bars, tapas bars, cafes, Bubble Tea places, an ice cream shop, pizza, micro pubs selling local brews, big pubs, a cinema, a theatre, charity shops, supermarkets, a green grocer, a pharmacy, a butcher, tattoo parlors,beauty shops, yoga studios and a massage parlor (yes one of those ones) (no i havent been).
No Starbucks or McDonalds.
Then there is the Manhattan solution to no cars in the city, no parking places. It is a misery to own a car in Manhattan; few do.
But if you really need to get out of the city in case of a real SHTF situation, you may be stuck- right where they want you- in a self perpetuating consumptive civil unrest meat grinder- because your battery is dead.
Got a bicycle? But I would still rather have a IC truck or car than a silly little EV. Either way, the romantic idealization of a “Sound of Music” get away over the Swiss Alps is unlikely no matter how well you are prepared.
Are the zones individualized? Otherwise, it seems like this would penalize people towards the edges of the zones.
Just walk into the next zone then. You don’t have to stay in a zone.
(Reuters)
”Bird flu alarm drives world towards once-shunned vaccines.
[…] France’s Ceva Animal Health, one of the main companies developing bird flu vaccines along with Germany’s Boehringher Ingelheim, said initial results were “very promising”, notably by sharply reducing the excretion of the virus by infected birds.
Ceva said it was using the mRNA technology used in some COVID shots*** for the first time in poultry vaccines.”
*** (edit: unsuccessfully and with devastating results on human health probably also for generations to come)
”The global market for bird flu vaccines would be about 800 million to 1 billion doses per year, excluding China, said Sylvain Comte, corporate marketing director for poultry at Ceva.
Although the risk to humans from bird flu remains low, and there have never been cases of human-to-human transmission, countries must prepare for any change in the status quo, the World Health Organization said last week.
The recent COVID crisis has shown the risk of a virus found in animals mutating or combining with another influenza virus to make the jump to humans – and lead to a global pandemic..”
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/bird-flu-alarm-drives-world-towards-once-shunned-vaccines-2023-02-17/
Two interesting aspects in my view from this article.
1) it is probably the first time that an experimental formula has been preliminary tested on humans (by the way, without success) and then passed to animals.
In the article they clearly say that mRNA vaccines were rejected for animals in the past (and that is really tragic-funny if we stop and think about it for a while).
2) with the last sentence it is additionally clear why they prefer to cover the ‘lab escape’ of the virus. ‘Never waste a good tragedy to make money on it’.
In case of a lab escape the sentence would have been:
‘the recent COVID crisis has shown the risk of a virus created in a lab and then escape to the society. So, we have realized that we don’t have to stop those GOF researches, but create additional vaccines’ (???) 😀
Strange world we live in.
Same old MO, first make them sick, then provide the false solution.
My chickens will literally mow the field they eat so much grass. They also eat plenty of bugs and worms…Meat!
All livestock commercially produced are completely deprived of these fundamentally necessary nutrients and so the animals are NOT healthy by any stretch of the definition. They are essentially chronically ill and highly susceptible to sever disease unless constantly and increasingly medicated.
So the meat, dairy, and eggs they produce are nutritionally compromised and somewhat toxic even.
TPTB will tell you that we must produce food this way in order to feed the population…BS! It is done this way so a small percentage of the population can get rich.
The population of the planet are largely and increasingly being fed the same diet as livestock…cereal, and they also are chronically ill and prone to sever disease. And again we are told that that is what has saved the planet from Malthusian collapse, limites to growth, etc. BS BS BS!!!
Daniel Quinn once stated that the solution to over population was to stop producing so much industrial foods (or something like that). It almost seems like thats the plan.
TPTB will tell you that we must produce food this way in order to feed the population…BS! It is done this way so a small percentage of the population can get rich.
We cant feed 8 billion people any other way.
Your little hobby farm is all very well but most people dont have the land for anything like that.
I agree, gardens and something like rabbits would be perhaps not the solution but at least some help. I doubt, insects could be the solution as they need controlled environments and transport. It is claimed they have reduced energy needs compared with chicken meat about 30%. That does not seem much to me. When the energy crisis becomes visible, people will loose their jobs. What are they supposed to do? Work in insect farms?
I agree also. It’s the power of triple sixteen. 16-16-16. Nothing but a parlor trick writ large. Little bitches.
“We cant feed 8 billion people any other way.”
i call that a feature, not a bug.
Thinking rationally, it’s easy to understand that population is a dependent variable. Lack of food will quickly reduce population.
There is a silver lining here that most people ignore. Many times, the population will naturally go down BEFORE the starvation. See for example the western Roman empire.
The reasons are complex but overcrowding (see the mouse experiments) seem to trigger instinctual behaviour to reduce the number of children. That is why during most of human history, cities were (and still are) populations sinks – without immigration their population will go down.
Since I am sure that some psychopath oligarch has his slaves reading this, may I suggest to them to focus on this method of reducing the population? Just provide bread and circuses, drugs and entertainment to the stupid masses and leave the little pockets of “normal” people alone. They will inherit the Earth – if there is something left by then.
Many times, the population will naturally go down BEFORE the starvation. See for example the western Roman empire.
I dont believe it did. I think the fall in population just followed the fall in food and wood production.
From M Fast:
[12:19 pm, 18/02/2023] : No eggs in the supermarket
[12:20 pm, 18/02/2023] : Ridiculous
Excavations by the IAA have found a detailed military paycheck (one of only three legionary paychecks discovered in the entire Roman Empire), issued to a Roman legionary soldier from the period of the First Jewish-Roman War in AD 72. The paycheck is one of 14 Latin scrolls found at Masada by archaeologists – 13 of which was written on papyrus, and one on parchment paper.
The paycheck provides a detailed summary of a Roman soldier’s salary over two pay periods (out of three he would receive annually), including the various deductions that he was charged.
Dr. Oren Ableman, senior curator-researcher at the Israel Antiquities Authority Dead Sea Scrolls Unit, said: “The soldier’s paycheck included deductions for boots and a linen tunic, and barley fodder for his horse.”
“Surprisingly, the details indicate that the deductions almost exceeded the soldier’s salary. Whilst this document provides only a glimpse into a single soldier’s expenses in a specific year, it is clear that in light of the nature and risks of the job, the soldiers did not stay in the army only for the salary,” added Dr Ableman.
According to Dr. Ableman, “The soldiers may have been allowed to loot on military campaigns. Other possible suggestions arise from reviewing the different historical texts preserved in the Israel Antiquities Authority Dead Sea Scrolls Laboratory.
For example, a document discovered in the Cave of Letters in Nahal Hever from the time of the Bar Kokhba Revolt (AD 132–135), sheds light on some side hustles Roman soldiers used to earn extra cash. This document is a loan deed signed between a Roman soldier and a Jewish resident, the soldier charging the resident with interest higher than what was legal. This document reinforces the understanding that the Roman soldiers’ salaries may have been augmented by additional sources of income, making service in the Roman army far more lucrative.”
https://www.heritagedaily.com/2023/02/archaeologists-uncover-roman-soldiers-paycheck-at-masada/146215
Another lucrative source for the soldiers were donatives given by the Emperor on the anniversary of his coming into power, special events like a triumph celebration.
Septimus Severus, the African Emperor, advised his son’s to take good care of the soldiers and scorn everyone else…
The truth about smallpox
https://odysee.com/@TheTruthSeeker:f/The-truth-about-smallpox:0
From the video blurb:
“This video dispels not only the popular myth about the existence of the smallpox virus, but also the myth about the existence of smallpox as an independent disease and its “eradication”.”
I am doubtful this is a direction I want to go. This goes too far.
As the last three years have made clear, we live in a time when it is not easy to determine in advance how far the gold of truth lies. No use saying we’ve already dug enough. We need to dig and dig and keep digging.
Keep digging JMS.
You may be familiar with the content in the below, but it’s a good source of quotes and links. It does give potential answers to some of questions raised. Those wondering about seasonality, or even the influence of the stars(influenza) might find it interesting.
It’s written by a Marxist and they do like to bang their own drum, so the first section may be somewhat of a turn off. I’d say it’s worth reading, but skip down to Vaccines to miss that. It’s a hefty article as well, so I’ll just quote a few bits(which will be long, but less than the hour the article takes).
A quick quote from the first section.
“One cannot get tuberculosis without a tubercle bacillus, and the evidence is quite compelling that one cannot get the cancer mesothelioma without having ingested asbestos or related compounds. But that is not the same as saying that the cause of tuberculosis is the tubercle bacillus and the cause of mesothelioma is asbestos. What are the consequences for our health of thinking in this way? Suppose we note that tuberculosis was a disease extremely common in the sweatshops and miserable factories of the nineteenth century, whereas tuberculosis rates were much lower among country people and in the upper classes. Then we might be justified in claiming that the cause of tuberculosis is unregulated industrial capitalism, and if we did away with that system of social organization, we would not need to worry about the tubercle bacillus. When we look at the history of health and disease in modern Europe, that explanation makes at least as good sense as blaming the poor bacterium.”
Vaccines, what are they good for?
“The sort of study which would conclusively demonstrate that vaccines are safe and effective – double-blind, placebo controlled, long term – are simply never carried out. Generally, this is rationalized with the argument, now very familiar in the context of Covid vaccines, that it would be unethical to deprive people of such life-saving medicine. Hopefully one is beginning to see the depth of the mendacious illogic at work here. The very rare instances where anything close to such an adequate study has been carried out make abundantly clear why they are not done more often. In the 1960s, for instance, the WHO conducted a large study on the BCG vaccine for Tuberculosis in India, comparing equally large vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. They found no increased protective effect in the vaccinated group, and significantly more illness and death.[15] In 2012, a study comparing an influenza vaccine with a true placebo in children found that »there was no statistically significant difference in the risk of confirmed seasonal influenza infection,« and the vaccine group »had a higher risk of acute respiratory illness with non influenza infections.«[16] A large meta-analysis conducted by Tom Jefferson of the Cochrane Collaboration, and replicated in BMJ, found that »evidence from systematic reviews shows that inactivated vaccines have little or no effect on the effects measured.«[17]”
Vaccines are good for our health?
“For instance, a number of studies have found that, overall, the unvaccinated are substantially healthier than the vaccinated. [19] [20] [21] A 2011 study found that »the more vaccinations a country has had, the higher the mortality rate is for babies aged up to one year in that country.«[22] Interestingly, the dramatic reduction in infant vaccinations during the recent alleged »pandemic« has corresponded with decreased infant mortality. Data from a study led by the Robert Koch-Institute (RKI, the German equivalent of the CDC) clearly showed more allergies, developmental disorders, infections, and chronic diseases in the vaccinated. The authors, with serious conflicts of interests, used dubious exclusions in order to deny these results, particularly excluding migrant children between 11 and 17, who make up a disproportionate segment of the unvaccinated in that age range in Germany.[23]
Another significant source of data comes from studies which look at the timing of vaccination, often showing that the later vaccines are administered, the lesser the harms. These of course necessarily imply some risk from the vaccine itself– which could presumably be further mitigated by not administering it at all! One 2020 analysis found that »vaccination before 1 year of age was associated with increased odds of developmental delays, asthma, and ear infection.« As Engelbrecht et.al. observe, the »study was unique in that all diagnoses were verified using abstracted medical records from each of the participating pediatric practices.« [24] The lead author of the study concluded that »The results definitely indicate better health outcomes in children who did not receive vaccines within their first year of life. These findings are consistent with additional research that has identified vaccination as a risk factor for a variety of adverse health outcomes.« [25] Another study found that children who are given the DTP vaccine later, have a lower risk of Asthma at age 7.[26] The highly respected and orthodox Cochrane Collaboration published an analysis in 2012 which looked at many of the studies concerning the MMR combined vaccines. They found serious flaws across the board, and none of the studies met their methodological criteria. Most significant is their conclusion about the 2001 Fombonne and Chakrabarti study, which is the most widely cited ‘refutation’ of the link between autism and MMR vaccination: »The number and possible impact of biases in this study was so high that interpretation of the results is impossible.«[27]
As demonstrated above, the common perception that broad historical trends provide evidence for the benefits of vaccines is false. On the other hand, in the past half century, especially since the Reagan era transfer of liability for vaccine injuries away from private companies and onto the population, vaccination has exploded. Are we reaping the benefits in a new golden era of good health? Quite the contrary. Before 1986, under 13 percent of children had chronic diseases— that number has risen to 54% in the vaccine generation.[28] There is a common, pernicious right-wing propaganda line, that this is all just an issue of over-sensitive over-diagnosing. While we certainly do live in a profoundly and increasingly over-medicalized society, the claim that the explosion of chronic illness can be reduced to overdiagnosis, at least in the case of Autism, clearly does not stand up to scrutiny.[29] Between 1986 and now, Autism rates in the USA have gone from 1 in 2,500 to 1 in 36. Anyone willing to seriously engage with this reality will find these numbers confirmed in their own personal field, especially if they are willing to overlook the mendacious stories contrived by big pharma to transfer guilt onto others, above all mothers — e.g, for their indulgence in drugs, negligence, etc. As RFK Jr. has observed, the »CDC spares no expense systematically tracking the source of 800 measles cases. But when asked about the cataclysmic epidemic of upwards of 68,000 new autism cases annually, CDC shrugs.«[30] A CDC Whistleblower, Dr. William Thomposon, testified under oath that his superiors at the CDC ordered him to destroy data showing a link between vaccines and autism, and to publish a fraudulent study dismissing the link«[31] David Rasnick recounts a particularly telling incident:
In June of 2000, a group of high level government scientists and health officials from the pharmaceutical industry, FDA, CDC, and WHO gathered for a highly secret meeting in Norcross, Georgia, USA to discuss the safety of a host of common childhood vaccines administered to infants and young children. From the CDC’s massive database, it was clear that the mercury-based thimerosal was responsible for a dramatic increase in autism and a host of other neurological disorders among vaccinated children. Instead of taking immediate steps to alert the public and rid the vaccine supply of thimerosal, the officials and executives spent most of two days discussing how to cover up the damaging data. According to transcripts of the meeting obtained under the Freedom of Information Act, many at the meeting were concerned about how the damaging revelations about thimerosal would affect the vaccine industry’s bottom line.[32]”
But Virology?
“A virus particle was not observed first and subsequently viral theory and pathology developed. Scientists of the mid and late nineteenth century were preoccupied with the identification of imagined contagious pathogenic entities. The observations of the naive inductionist did not identify a virus a priori, and then set about studying its properties and characteristics. The extant presupposition of the time was that a very small germ particle existed that may explain contagion. What came thereafter arose to fulfill the presuppositional premise.
Mark Bailey, »A Farewell to Virology,« 18”
They wouldn’t lie.
“we have an increasing rationality in the small, at the level of the laboratory, more and more exquisite knowledge of detail, along with irrationality in the scientific enterprise as a whole, which allows it to be drawn into all kinds of destructive, self-limiting, and unethical activities.[52]”
Would they.
“I don’t think you can misuse PCR. [It is] the results; the interpretation of it. If they can find this virus in you at all – and with PCR, if you do it well, you can find almost anything in anybody. It starts making you believe in the sort of Buddhist notion that everything is contained in everything else. If you can amplify one single molecule up to something you can really measure, which PCR can do, then there are just very few molecules that you don’t have at least one single one of in your body. That could be thought of as a misuse: to claim that it [a PCR test] is meaningful. It tells you something about nature and what is there. To test for that one thing and say it has a special meaning is, I think, the problem. The measurement for it is not exact; it is not as good as the measurement for apples. The tests are based on things that are invisible and the results are inferred in a sense. It allows you to take a miniscule amount of anything and make it measurable and then talk about it. PCR is just a process that allows you to make a whole lot of something out of something. It doesn’t tell you that you are sick, or that the thing that you ended up with was going to hurt you or anything like that.[53]
Kary Mullis”
Alternatives.
“Suddenly and inexplicably, influenza, whose descriptions had remained consistent for thousands of years, changed its character in 1889. Flu had last seized most of England in November 1847, over half a century earlier. The last flu epidemic in the United States had raged in the winter of 1874 – 1875. Since ancient times, influenza had been known as a capricious, unpredictable disease, a wild animal that came from nowhere, terrorized whole populations at once without warning and without a schedule, and disappeared as suddenly and mysteriously as it had arrived, not to be seen again for years or decades. It behaved unlike any other illness, was thought not to be contagious, and received its name because its comings and goings were said to be governed by the »influence« of the stars.[69, [70]”
Getting quite long, so I’ll leave it there. Talk of stars and electricity might be too much for some 🤔
Sorry, forgot to include the link.
https://magma-magazin.su/2023/02/t-mohr/virology-as-ideology-a-critique-of-ruling-class-pseudoscience-part-3-virology-as-ideology/
Great read, thanks. How rare to see a leftist with a critical perspective on science and industrial medicine (not that the right is much more lucid in that regard though). My leftist friends, always so ready to rant about corporate greed, can’t see no evil when these corporations operate under the umbrella of science, perhaps because they are devotees of Progress & Reason, and these are almost synonymous with Science. Besides, some of them studied science and work in the scientific field, which, added to the ideological blindfold called progress, makes them completely incapable of perceiving the venality and corruption in the sciences.
I also liked this bit:
“the capitalist ruling class has privileged the germ-theory of disease as the default and often exclusive explanation of illness for obvious material and ideological reasons. It fits within their purely competitive / antagonistic model of evolution, which systematically underestimates symbiosis or cooperation. It supports their crude, mechanistic, atomistic, undialectical core ontology. It buttresses their fetish of DNA, justifying eugenics and racism. It obscures environmental injuries from all forms of pollution, from chemical to electrical, shifting the blame onto individuals for not adequately protecting or medicating themselves. Wedded to the fantasy of “magic bullet” cures, it fosters the basis for the core formula of modern biomedicine: “one disease, one cause, one cure.”[3] Rockefeller alone massively drove the enshrinement of this formula, which enabled the explosion of a highly profitable pharmaceutical industry based significantly on petroleum-based products.”
Glad you enjoyed it. It asks some nice questions, supplies enough information to justify the asking and I always prefer a question over class led compliance.
The bit you quote is very relevant concerning how we’re led with the left/right theatre, who it really serves and to what end.
The people you refer to as leftist(where and when did that term appear?) have no connection to the genuine left. They are all without fail scribe class and the scribes always do the bidding of the elite (fascist)class.
The vocal right may appear to be leading the fight against the take over, but truth be told, they, like their leftist colleagues only care about their own ability to consume and will happily stab their own grandmother in the back, to not only get it, but to also flaunt it(strangely compelling for them).
A scribe, no matter the colour, is still a scribe.
They are now seeing that ‘divine’ right being stripped away. How far do you think that they are willing to go to keep it?
There is no genuine left or right belief for the scribe class, only compliance to their masters wishes and a trained belief in their own virtue. The ability to do a 180⁰ on any subject is quite stunning to behold, but they do it regularly and without a hint of shame.
All a bit sad really, for the supposed intellectuals.
Here’s a Socialists take on them.
https://twitter.com/SimonElmer2022/status/1626523802866798592?s=20
Ok, that’s all getting a bit too promotional for the left.
My point, read them all without preconceived bias(feel I’m singing to choir 😂).
There’s important information to be found from all sides, except the elite owned and you don’t need to read them anyway, just talk to any of the scribe class🙄
Division is the fuel of rule and so the greater the division, the more absolute the rule.
Bellum omnium contra omnes
We need to beware the agents of division.
Let me clarify that what really interested me in the essay was the critique of corporate science and the denunciation of the scientific fraud called germ theory. Political theory interests me much less, not least because as we know our problem is not fundamentally political, but physical and, shall we say, psychological. Humans are nothing more than yeast endowed with the ability to rationalize, and if they are capable of cooperating within the group, it’s also true that they can only do so by following the orders of their chiefs. So the political struggle that Marxists dream of is a mirage, postulating something called class consciousness, which in my view never existed, was never more than historical fiction and wishful thinking.
Indeed, this and other shortcomings of Marxist theory and practice have always prevented me from having any sympathy for communism.
When politics, which is fundamentally the continuation of religion by other means, still fascinated me, many years ago, my inclination was towards anarchist utopia, or on a more realistic plane towards social democracy.
”small pox” as a term was used i think to distinguish it from ”the great pox” which was syphilis.
both poxes kill
Lest you forget, norm, I cornered you with Reason into pleading the fifth on the existence of pathogenic viruses. Disease kills. Poxes are symptoms of particular pathways of disease.
reante I think you are trying to find corners again–which do not exist—some kind of self satisfaction perhaps–I’ve no idea.
my comment was merely an exercise in language usage–not medical terminology. It was certainly indefinite. A point you disregarded before ‘leaping into your usual abyss of conclusion..
if there is a ‘small’ pox, then by definition there must be a ‘great’ pox.–or ‘the’ pox.
extrapolating the pox word over millennia, that would seem to be its origin. To me it seems obvious what the ‘great pox’ was.
I see no connection between that and ‘pathways of disease’
Even with my rudimentary knowledge of medicine—I know that ‘disease kills’. I also know that people recover from smallpox. And other diseases.
At the time when these words were coined syphilis was, i think, universally terminal—hence ‘great pox’ i should imagine.
ultimately one can never know how and where words originated
let’s not shoot the messenger here norm.
My problem with what you wrote, in saying “both poxes kill,” is that one of those ‘poxes to which you referred — ‘smallpox’ — is, according to the abysmal (beyond dismal) ‘science’ of virology, caused by a ‘virus.’ Since you publicly pled the fifth in pathogenic viruses, in order to remain consistent in that pleading, whenever you refer to any supposedly viral disease the relevant nomenclature neads to be accompanied by single quotes or some other disclaimer, lest we get the wrong impression about your views. We wouldn’t want you to be misunderstood.
obviously i was misinformed
poxes (in the context of small and great) don’t kill.
lets hope we do not have to put that to the test
no, norm, the burden of proof is on the virologists. nice try. all that the terrain can do is show that there’s zero structural precedence for anything like what the virologists are claiming.
reante
i have no idea what you are going on about
welcome to limbo. keep going, the terrain is just up ahead. true belief lies there. 🙂
Even Norman will doubtless accept the validity of terrain theory in its mild form: When exposed to the same pathogens, some people die, some get sick, and some remain healthy. Differences in terrain account for these different outcomes.
When we try to get into why people get sick or die of diseases, or whether specific viruses either exist or not, or whether they are pathogenic or not, we could go on for longer than a full-length international cricket test match and still not get close to a general agreement.
2+2=4. In other words, the truth is always simple once arrived at. It’s just the getting there that can be complex.
If as you say a strong terrain does not get sick, Tim, then disease must fundamentally be caused by a weak (in some way) terrain. There’s no other calculus to be made on that score.
But if you want to get into ecology and biology to further satisfy yourself WRT those structural reasons why first-causal pathogens do not exist in this reality then just holler, and we can do it again. 🙂
norm is familiar with Snatch Pox (SSS)
At 53:55, a piece of sheer, solid logic:
“If no pure virus has ever been isolated, there are no reference standards or calibrators for the tests, HENCE all reported tests and experiments related to them become scientifically invalid.”
Sapere aude.
What I don’t like about this point by the mainstream terrain orthodoxy is that it refuses to acknowledge that exosomes (‘viruses’) can be FUNCTIONALLY isolated by process of elimination. By taking samples of urine and other body fluids from a person with a recognized symptomology, and centrifuging and sorting by size and all that palaver, the lab rats can winnow the sample down to batches of exosomes and probably some other stuff, too, and then they can run batch PCRs and batch sequences and then sort the sequences into classes, and then cross-reference the populations (numbers) of the different classes with other samples from people with the same symptomologies and also people with different symptomologies, and also people with no symptomologies, and use Reason to figure out which exosomes best correlate with which symptomologies.
And they can also cross-reference these results with functional isolations, PCRs,band sequencings from different tissues, such as tumors or whatever.
The ‘Team No Virus’ cartel prefers to ignore all this well-established exosomal science and ‘flat-earth’the terrain instead, and that’s bullshit. They prefer to play lame semantic games with the word “isolation.” Frankly I think there’s a controlled opposition dynamic at play. What else is new?
They’re firmly in the new age and more interested in anti-materialist culture and so that bias is reflected in their views on the terrain. In truth, biology is both materialism (energy) and immaterialism (consciousness/spirit) in symbiosis, so for them to just hitch their wagon to the one pole (immaterialism) while ignoring the material pole just because the mainstream swung too far towards the material pole, with their ‘hard,’ mechanistic object modelings of reality, is just New Age reactionaryism.
Holism stays centered on the whole and does not throw the baby out with the bathwater.
If what scientific literature calls viruses are actually exosomes, and therefore don’t what viruses are supposed to do (cause disease), it’s irrelevant whether or not they can be isolated. If this is your point, then I agree.
Andrew Kaufman calls viruses exosomes, Lanka if I remember correctly says they are phages, others will have other names… I confess biology doesn’t interest me enough to try to understand who exactly is right in this minor quarrel. In a time like this, and against such powerfull enemies, that sort of hiir splitting can’t be a winning strategy. I think you’re too hard on what you call the No Virus Team cartel. Maybe Cowen, Baileys et alia didn’t get it all figured out, but i think that attacking them is divisive and only plays on the hands of bigpharmafia. In a war, it is essential to keep in mind who is the main and true enemy. After defeating the Evil Empire, we will always have time to correct our faulty allies 🙂 No hurry.
Yeah well my ‘problem’ is I’m non-political. The truth is always politically divisive. And it’s always the first casualty of war. Which is why I’m not at war with anyone. We’re all descendants of free peoples who either surrendered to empire or were killed. The war, that true war, was lost a long time ago. Only civilizational collapse can return our freedom, and it’s happening. Fighting a fake political war is what will continue to set humans against each other, and also set us against ourselves imo.
collapse of civilisation will bring the opposite of freedom
we will return to feudalism and petty warlords
if you think that offers freedom, i suggest you do some research on the subject
Reante, I wasn’t talking about political war, but the war for truth in the field of biology. “Evil Empire” meant Bigpharma.
JMS
Them flat-earthing biology just creates a culture of denial of the reality of what the weapons programs are capable of. It’s a juvenile protective mechanism. They can’t even talk about the nanolipids freely because the nano aspect makes them deeply uncomfortable because light microscopy can’t see it properly. They can’t touch the whole Igg4 issue because they refuse to even object model ‘antibodies’ catalytic enzymes in service of blood toxin removal. Lanka doesn’t believe in genomes. Most of them probably don’t believe in atoms and nuclear weapons or that oil isn’t a renewable. It’s a flat-eathist subculture and k think that the Flat Earth revival is an elite psyop. The elites don’t care what you believe so long as it’s not the truth. Not believing in viruses isn’t really the truth if you don’t believe in anything – it’s just a part of crazy, of a broken clock being right twice a day.
They’re okay with crazy people getting lucky every once and a while in the midst of their psychobabble. I’m exaggerating, but only somewhat, in order to make my point. It’s intellectual madness I’m taking about. I mean, i get the function of it: as we know here at OFW, few humans really care about the truth above all because by and large were just animals who need and want somewhere to belong. And the elites are well aware of that, and use that to their advantage. In taking the Commons away from us they took our ability to think for ourselves from us because grounded
thinking (Reason) is based on patterning cause and effect in the local ecology (of Natural Law). Once we fell out of the practice of daily natural ecological reasoning habits as a practical way of life, we lost our belonging because that was the mode in which humans have always belonged together. The ecology is what unified a peoples.
Without the ecology, belonging is no based in Reason. It’s based in emotional co-
dependency which is what the false use of the term ‘tribalism’ is really referring to. I’m not into that, man, and the only reason for that is because i made it such that i have an ecological place to belong again. It all starts with the land in my experience. Loving the land. First things first. I pigeonhole Team No virus are a curious urban new age post-hippie capitalistic nihilists. Part of the problem in my book. YMMV. Do i appreciate what they did have to offer me at the beginning? Sure i am. I’m grateful for that. But i have great expectations.
norm
I’m sure you’ll agree that as civilization collapses it shrinks. Shrinkage means open spaces for those willing and able to step into that breach. I realize that open spaces lie beyond the event horizon of the civilized mind. For example, i fully expect most people in my area to not be here anymore at some point, for one reason or another. That will be a good development for my freedom-loving year-round grazing program.
Ecology 101. The collapse of one niche heralds the rise of another.
Thank you, Reante, you made it a little clearer why you don’t appreciate the defenders of “flat earth biology”, as you call them. Unfortunatey I cannot really debate this with you, as I don’t have your passion for the subject and am content with the conclusion that allopathic medicine is a fraud. And I thank to Lanka and the others for making me understand this.
I disagree though when you say that “the elites don’t care what you believe so long as it’s not the truth”. That’s not true, since the elites know that when one of the pillars of their Truth is called into question, all the other pillars are subject to being questioned as well. To allow that is to allow the Pandora’s box of systematic doubt to be opened. And that’s a no no for them. Which explains why A. Kaufmann or S. Bailey’s videos were deleted from YT.
btw, what you think about this?
https://viroliegy.com/2022/01/26/the-epistemological-crisis-in-genomics/
This is a very long paper. One thing it says that I liked was
“The truth of a scientific theory rests with its validation and a theory is validated independently of the thinking leading to it.”
A summary of some of its points was this one:
–There is an epistemological crisis in genomics
–At issue is what constitutes scientific knowledge in genomic science, or systems biology in general
–Meaning and the constitution of scientific knowledge are key concerns for genomics, and the nature of the epistemological crisis in genomics depends on how these are understood
–According to Dougherty, the rules of the scientific game are not being followed
–High-throughput technologies such as gene-expression microarrays have lead to the accumulation of massive amounts of data, orders of magnitude in excess to what has heretofore been conceivable, yet the accumulation of data does not constitute science, nor does the a postiori rational analysis of data
@Gail – “the accumulation of data does not constitute science”
This is a serious problem, especially in the genomics community. Genetic network regulation is complex, nonlinear, with many unknown pieces of machinery playing a role.
It is common for published research to consist of a bunch of sequencing, then they wave their hands and point at a curious piece of it. That data is never used to do anything useful or generate an understanding of the system that can be used by them – let alone other researchers – to do anything useful.
I consider it borderline fraud, but that is par for the course in academia.
“This is a very long paper. One thing it says that I liked was
“The truth of a scientific theory rests with its validation and a theory is validated independently of the thinking leading to it.””
Gail
That’s funny because I don’t like that quote at all. 🙂 Obviously there are true theories that cannot be validated with the scientific method. Just because we can’t identify them (because they can’t be tested for and thus validated) doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Surely they do. Hell, every true theory there ever was was true, by definition, before it was ever validated.
And the second part of that statement I don’t like either. The validation of the theory — the experiment — can’t exist without the thinking that caused the experiment to happen. The validation is completely dependent on the thinking that led to it.
This is how I would rewrite that sentence: Validated scientific theories are those which have repeatedly and consistently been shown to be true by independent testing.
Thanks for bearing with me, JMS. I enjoy our exchanges.
“I disagree though when you say that “the elites don’t care what you believe so long as it’s not the truth”. That’s not true, since the elites know that when one of the pillars of their Truth is called into question, all the other pillars are subject to being questioned as well. To allow that is to allow the Pandora’s box of systematic doubt to be opened. And that’s a no no for them. Which explains why A. Kaufmann or S. Bailey’s videos were deleted from YT.”
Systemic doubt doesn’t matter in the slightest to them. They have full spectrum dominance. You use any other currency but the federal reserve note and you go to prison for 20 years. You don’t pay taxes in federal reserve notes you go to prison. You get so upset about it that you go postal, you go to prison. You vote for the wrong person, that’s ‘democracy.’
Half the country didn’t buy the official 9/11 narrative. What happened? Nothing. Millions didn’t buy what happened to JFK. What happened? Nothing. What came of the Trucker Convoy? Nothing. Welcome to human domestication.
They’re a mafia. They don’t give a fuck what anybody thinks. They’re response to us comes with a sneer, “What are you gonna do about it, huh? You ain’t gonna do nothing. We broke your kind hundreds of years ago. Run along, now, boy.”
They place a veneer over the rough beast… so that beast has not need to use its claws and fangs. Sometimes it rubs off… and nobody does anything … cuz the claws and fangs
Better to pretend not to see
“Hell, every true theory there ever was was true, by definition, before it was ever validated.”
You said it. Truth is like a lion; it depends about as much on validators as art depends on critics.
Although there is this:
https://img.libquotes.com/pic-quotes/v2/oscar-wilde-quote-lbq2h7i.jpg
JMS
Viroliegy is where I commented between my two stints here at OFW. Maybe it was you who recommended it to me, I don’t recall. So I got to know Mike Stone’s proclivities fairly well. What follows is the big picture on Mike as far as I can tell, and I’m making this about Mike not so as to avoid addressing the content of his article but am doing so because all of Mike’s articles debunking establishment science (much of which is valid) comes from his Kantian ‘philosophy’ that he shares with Cowan. I bring up Kant in light of Kant being used in this article in support of Mike’s argument against genomics. As you may know, Cowan is on the record as saying that Kant is his intellectual lodestar.
As a Kantian, when Mike titles an essay, “The Epistomological Crisis in Genomics,” and proceeds to make a case for that point, it has nothing to do with objective reasoning because Kantian philosophy’s OWN epistomology — it’s own theory of knowledge — doesn’t hold that ANY knowledge external to the human mind can EVER be acquired! I myself, as an animist, which is unitarian objectivism (holism), realize that Kant’s Transcendental Idealism is an extreme subjectivist ‘philosophy.’
Science means (formalized) knowledge of objective phenomena that lie external to the human mind so, therefore, Kantians believe that science itself is a lie. So all that Mike does is non-publicly (hell, it’s probably subconscious anyway) apply his quasi-solipsistic (a debatable characterization I’d be happy to debate) ‘philosophy’ (it’s loveless if you ask me) to various scientific topics related to virology, and tries to make it look scientific, via rigid Scientific Methodism, even though he doesn’t even really believe that the scientific method reveals knowledge.
It’s all sophistry because he’s making ‘scientific’ arguments against establishment ‘science’ as someone who doesn’t believe at all that science (formalized knowledge) exists in the first place. That’s deceitful because he’s trying to get people to believe what he says while not truly believing it himself. Kant holds that you can’t know anything outside of yourself but can believe in things outside of yourself like Flat Earth Theory, so Mike believes he can and should influence people to share his flat-earthing of biology and genomics.
Mike doesn’t believe genes exist because of his quasi-solipsistic ‘philosophy’ which is in the same neighborhood as nihilism, yet I could get the strange notion to pay $19.99 for an anonymous DNA test from total strangers that would tell me a story highly consistent with what my parents have told me. And I can only conclude that Mike has been so traumatized by this heinous prison planet that he just needs to shut his eyes, stick his fingers in his ears, and yell lalalalalalalala! That said he’s a super nice guy, and relentless like me.
Tim
Like a lion, I like that. And the Wilde quote is funny and poignant. Speaks to the fake ‘tribalism’ I mentioned.
FE
Appreciate the corroboration.
“Systemic doubt doesn’t matter in the slightest to them.”
If that were entirely true, Reante, they would have no need to censure all the unorthodox (or even liquidate the most dangerous among them) nor would there be any need for secrecy in politics and business. The existence of this need proves that despite their full spectrum dominance and the domesticable nature of humans, the elite know that even with a collar around their necks, humans are a dangerous beast, much given to vengeful rages. Hence TPTB make every effort to control the narrative.
You may be right about the self-contradictions of Mike Stone’s Kantian epistemology, but the foundation of the essay in question is Dougherty’s mathematical and statistical argument, and that one seems quite convincing.
JMS
I stand by my position. Doubting thomases aren’t a threat to the elites. Masses of people who simultaneously feel their lives have been destroyed by the elites and have nothing left to lose are a threat to them. But that hasn’t really been a problem for them since I don’t know when.
The elites do take pride in the running of their People Farm, so naturally they don’t take kindly to troublemakers who use the fame that the elites gifted them in the first place in order to stab the elites in the back, is their view of it. Troublemakers are different from doubters who are otherwise dutiful to the ROTG.
Of course they make every effort to control the narrative. It’s their narrative.
Regarding Dougherty’s criticisms of gene expression analyses with microarrays — which is his sole focus as far as I could tell — it sounded reasonable to me too. I don’t doubt it’s just one big boondoggle. But I repeat that Kant has no place in his criticisms. If he wants to argue for the importance of prediction and experimental validation to the institutionalized field of science he would be better off doing so without invoking an anti-science ‘philosopher.’
Notice at the very end how Mike takes Dougherty’s narrowly-focused essay and uses and abuses it to make a sweeping conclusion about how the human genome is totally fraudulent, but he phrases it in such a way as to not be too explicit about it.
Putin will address the Russian people this coming Tuesday on all Russian TV and Radio stations. Also, next week, Biden will speak in Warsaw Poland.
We will have to see what these folks have to say.
Ukraine Shoots Down ‘Decoy’ Russian Balloons As Moldova, Romania Report High-Altitude Objects
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-shoots-down-decoy-russian-balloons-moldova-romania-report-high-altitude#comment-stream
What is all these nonsense about? Ballons, UFOs, etc? What kind of distraction is going on?
How “unreal”? So difficult to shoot down a ballon?
the US woketards shot down the CCP balloon with a $400,000 missile.
sort of similar in Ukraine, the Russians send many cheap drones and maybe a few balloons and it triggers Ukrainian radar and they shoot down the drones with expensive missiles.
an easy way to accelerate the depletion of NATO missiles.
the Russians are playing 4D chess and the West thinks it’s a game of checkers.
I think Russia is screwed too….the woketards keep coming….sigh….maybe I need a safe space to figure out my pronouns
The “Anti-Malthus”: peak oil was wrong, Malthus was wrong, the doomsayers were wrong:
https://youtu.be/kee8t9yqk5k?t=290
Malthus was right. I don’t see how he could be wrong.
malthus could not foresee us using fossilised sunshine
which boosted food production and changed the population dynamic—but only temporarily
that didn’t make him wrong—just out about 200 years
we are now in a worse situation
the world can only feed about 1 bn at 18th c levels–the number pre-industrial revolution—”technology” isn’t going to feed us. –maybe a few more but not many.
We, or at least our ancestors, were already using a bit of “fossilized sunshine” during Malthus’s (1766-1834) day, albeit only a few Mote (million tons oil equivalent) per year back in the Reverend’s day.
One database I found online suggests that world coal consumption was 7 Mote in 1800 and 17 Mtoe in 1830, rising to 2100 Mtoe in the last decade of the 20th century. The combined oil, coal and gas figure is over 7800 Mtoe in 2000, roughly a thousand times the rate of consumption in 1800.
few grasp the significance of exponential growth—i certainly didn’t until i started on all this stuff
Prof (of economics!!!) Julian Simon said that humankind was the ”ultimate resource” and we had enough to last for 7 billion years. )he corrected that later to 7 million years)–still bonkers.
Malthus was writing only about 80 years after the industrial revolution started, so its effects hadn’t begun to kick in
The rise in consumption rate says it all
Humankind is more like capital equipment than a resource.
It won’t function well without inputs and may even cease operating altogether.
I’m not arguing the point, just showing how optimistic people tend to look at the problem.
It’s certainly true that since Malthus, technology has temporarily increased the carrying capacity. While his conceptual argument that “there are limits” is axiomatic, his concrete predictions were wrong in their timing.
I’m afraid I don’t have time for a 1.5 hour talk about why Malthus was wrong. Maybe someone else does.
It’s only the ~100 seconds from the timepoint I linked to.
Technology improvements are allowing things to get exponentially better. I am afraid not.
‘100 years of Progress in 25 years’ is the slogan of the technophiles.
Such imbeciles!
Technology only ever makes things worse because it further drains energy resources.
I’m busy knitting a sweater so won’t be able to watch
Hundreds of thousands of years ago, one very bright human watched how fire was being used to cook food and kill the animals, way too many killed when the fire raged out of control.
He muttered to himself…. humans are going to kill themselves and be extinct.
He was right but just a few hundred thousand years earlier.
Modern humans consider “being too early in the prediction” as “you are wrong”
The introduction of synthesized nitrogen was not what it is touted to be.
It enabled the enslavement of of half the population by destroying their domestic food production while making a small group of people extremely wealthy.
Billions are forced to subsist on cereal with minimal nutrition and significant toxicity.
Again this has been used to control and or destroy demand for the majority while enriching a few.
Left to their own devices the population would have normalized around sustainable resource use. It is only the behavior of a small % of dysfunctional people who have pushed growth beyond reason.
I know this is not the belief of those on this forum. Most of you believe that ALL humanity is bad, just bad, all of the bad was bound to happen because we are all just bad. BS!
It is the greatest tragedy of all time that we will never know how life on the planet could have been thanks to the .01% that have dictated how it is going to be.
I don’t think humans are bad, as a species. They are simply doing what any species would if they could access the resources. So I’m not sure what you mean by “left to their own devices” since those few who you assign blame to are also humans. In a sense, it could never have been any other way – there might have been alternative societies and economies but humans would still have consumed resources as quickly as they could, with the commensurate damage to the non-human part of nature and, of course, with eventually increasing difficulty in accessing those resources.
Once it gets going, depending on the conditions, a forest fire can incinerate an entire forest and release a lot of carbon die oxide before it dies down and going out.
Once they get going, termites can eat their way through the dead trunks and branches of many kinds of trees, producing much the same sort of result as forest fire, only on a gentler and more limited scale, and then precipitously declining in numbers as their food runs low.
And, as we know know, once they get going, industrialized humans can dig or pump up and burn their way through billions of tons of hydrocarbons, going a step beyond what forest fire and termites can do and liberating a a lot more carbon die oxide that was previously removed from the biosphere.
Among the big questions for humans are, can they avoid dying down and going out like forest fire? And can they avoid precipitously declining in numbers as they run low on hitherto essential fuels?
We abnormies have a good idea of what we think the answers to those question are. In my experience, normies don’t ask those kinds of questions, let alone try to answer them.
Other species do not do what humans do … because they don’t have our ‘intelligence’
So they don’t go on a mad rampage like we do destroying the planet.
Get it?
How’s this … if I was 7 ft tall and a tremendous athlete I’d be the centre for the Lakers making 50M $$$ per year….
If I had studied harder I’d have gone to Harvard Law school and be a partner in a big NYC firm
If I’d gone to acting school .. I could be a famous actor.
I didn’t do any of those things.
Now do you get it?
We havent destroyed the planet. We are just as much a part of the planet as the rocks or the atmosphere.
All we have done is temporarily rearrange some molecules.
Hi there Jef and Mike, nice to see your comments here. I just wanted to say that I hear you loud and clear but also I think we’ve been doomed to this fate no matter which “dysfunctional 0.01%” ended up dominating our culture, if it weren’t the current lot, there would be another and another ad infinitum ready to rise up. Ever since our species figured out so vividly how “might makes right” to the efficiency and scale we have, I don’t see how it could have happened any other way because if you chose not to play at this game, you would have been “decommissioned” a long time ago.
However, I believe that we do have a chance to see at least on an individual level what the world might be like if we had another vision. No matter our circumstances, we still have a personal choice to define ourselves, this is the core belief that got Victor Frankl through the Holocaust as he wrote in his Man’s Search for Meaning, which I suppose is what we are ultimately trying to do. The flow on effects of a deed still reverberate whether or not we are consciously aware or not. This world would be so much different and dimmer for each one of us if not for the countless acts of kindness that allowed us the life we have, so it makes sense in corollary that what we choose to do can have positive effects on others’ lives. It is seemingly a drop in the bucket to what need our world has today but it is our drop added and that can be all the difference. Namaste, everyone.
Left to their own devices the population would have normalized around sustainable resource use. It is only the behavior of a small % of dysfunctional people who have pushed growth beyond reason.
When we last lived sustainably we were doing things like burning witches. It wasn’t better.
There will be witch burning in public within the USA inside of the next 5 years…. The palindromic nature of the holography will now swing the sociopolitical pendulum to the extreme religious right.
If ya’ll think woketardism was bad, just watch what happens now.
All is mathematically predictable within the simulacrum.
As somewhat of an oddball person it would be just my luck to get burned.
But, Withnail,if you were to be burned, you would at least have the satisfaction of having predicted it: let’s try to see the positive not the negative!
We will all get burned for being here
pointy hats are a giveaway
Withnail, Xabier, Sam, Norman, I think we need a OFW dress standard. Not exactly a code but elements of style so we can recognize each other on the street. Xabier do you have any tailors in your neighborhood that do original designs?
i always wear formal evening dress before sitting down to inflict my opinions on fellow ofw inmates
sheeeesh
i spent a bit of time looking at the archaix channel you mentioned. he suggests that 2023 will see coal miners strike in the UK. the last coal mine closed 2 years ago. regarding 1902, he says the tungsten filamented light bulb was invented then; in fact it tantalum, tungsten was used before that. for someone that bangs his own drum rather loudly about his “research skills”, these seem fairly major oversights to me.
Sounds like a typical youtube garbage merchant.
I don’t disagree with you. I try very hard to derive intuitive forward prediction from as many varied sources as possible.
I do not believe for example that the entirety of the human experience is encompassed within a 7000 year historical period.
I do believe that recurrent cataclysms are the norm. I think the history is palindromic.
Archaix is honest however and does not stray out of his defined boundaries.
He also has changed his stance when presented with more reasonable and probable information.
I cannot concieve of a true pole shift as envisioned by Veilokofsky, Hapgood, Davidson etc,….. I can accept the evidence and rationale of Mario Buildreps regarding massive crustal displacement of the northern pole and 4-6 previous large scale civilizations that have existed in the quiet times between massive planetary upheavals.
For what any of that is worth.
The world is still dramatically not what we think it is.
Cro, 5 years is too fast and we have nothing against witches. If you mention the health(death) industry that could fly.
in basic terms, the growth of humankind was governed by the rate of growth of biomasss
Even if there is plenty of FF, if there are not enough accessible raw materials then the energy issue becomes moot.
Good point. There are lots of potential bottlenecks to the system. Not being able to maintain international trade is one of them.
GVB wrote his stupid manifesto in 2021. I don’t know the original date, but it’s at least by March 21, 2021 when this rejection article was written:
https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-critical-thinking-pseudoscience/doomsday-prophecy-dr-geert-vanden-bossche
We’re 1 month 5 days short of 2 years since then, so
~~~ 695 DAYS OF BAU ~~~
Your link (which is not by GVB) is from March 2021. We know a lot more now than we did then about why the vaccines don’t really work and how they influence mutations. This paper is mostly nonsense.
” A vaccine shows your body an inert part of the virus,” according to the paper. Not true at all with the mRNA vaccines. It induces your body to make a toxic part of the virus. Your body learns to tolerate the poison, but it is not at all good for your body. The antibodies that are made are not neutralizing.
My point is that the link is from March 2021, so GVB must have written his manifesto by that point, nearly 2 years ago.
GVB seems to have taken down his original manifesto on his original site.
An excellent point, Gail.
I’ve been thinking – a little, as prefer to contemplate Beauty Truth and Goodness, pretty faces (rare) and lovely old trees (lots around here) – about this now well-understood ‘tolerance’ issue.
I have read that these people find bats, rats, etc, fascinating because these creatures carry all kinds of nasty things, but do not fall sick or die from them. Things that can kill us in short order…..
If this could be achieved in humans, it would indeed be remarkable and, perhaps, desirable. They, it would seem, intend to create a new kind of human being.
Now, with the mRNA Covid vaxxes, they have accomplished what we might call Stage 1: infection, but without obvious, clinical, symptoms. Just a sniffle or nothing.
But, alas for them and us, this results in long-term hidden – and often fatal – infection, secretly working away without symptoms, generating new variants like crazy.
So, a hypothetical Stage 2 – suppression of reaction AND functioning survival – is therefore a complete failure.
I suspect they have also been experimenting to see what % of the population would be killed or incapacitated by the nano- lipids and associated bio-agents.
I think GVB only gets airtime because he lives on “Covid Jabs Bad” island. His predictions about escape variants haven’t materialised. If he had focused on how the covid jabs cause immune dysfunction his concepts would have aged better. But for some reason he didn’t want to walk that path…
To be fair, GVB was specific about escape only being a possibility. Essentially, we have been tempting fate in the worst and most needless way.
Just because what GVB suggests could happen, has not yet happened, and something he was clear about… should not be perceived as an indication he does not know what he is talking about.
I think that GBV is a Malthus of our age. These predictions don’t always come to pass, or they may pan out in different ways that were originally contemplated, but there is sound a logic behind them.
I wouldn’t count out GBV entirely just because his imagined more virulent virus hasn’t evolved and escaped into general circulation yet. He has been correct in predicting that we would not end COVID-19 through vaccination, and one of his current predictions is that it will end in time through the extinction of the virus, but not before a great many more people have suffered and died of the disease needlessly.
Residents might be looking at increased cancer rates in the future.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/east-palestine-residents-may-already-be-undergoing-dna-mutations-class-action-lawsuit
East Palestine “Residents May Already Be Undergoing DNA Mutations,” Class Action Lawsuit Alleges
and many of them have had multiple jabs.
double whammy!
Given the degenerate state of many people, might this not be an advantage?
It occurred to me in the mall this morning that some kind of mutation might be desirable. What a horror show!
True excellence https://t.me/childcovidvaccineinjuriesuk/2635
The medieval life of a farmer under the rule of the monastery in England
https://youtu.be/IgyO31UaEMo
I listened to the first part of this video. It was interesting. I got to the part where the narrator said, “It was a time when religion, rather than science, governed their everyday thinking.”
We tell ourselves that science governs our lives today, but very often it is science based on very inadequate models and the false narratives that go with them. It is a different kind of religion. At least religion had years of “what works and what doesn’t” going for it. “Science,” too often, is based on “What can get me re-elected.”
The religion of progress took over, instead of dying and going to heaven we will now be uploaded into the digital world forever.
“What can get me re-elected.”
The main driver is access to a fiat debt based currency that allows politicians to temporarily “pay,” through debt and future currency debasement, for promises that get them elected and re-elected. No voter will refuse a free luch, even if there will be hell to pay down the road.
Re-elected politicans become magnets for corporate influence money (bribes) and in a quid pro quo, favorable laws are written. And fascism is born. MICs ( military and health) banks, and a top heavy parasitic pyramid is like a big turd dropped on our lives. No wonder the bankers were so keen on establishing the FED.
Now back to the other burning end of the burning candle- FFs.
I always wondered about the truth of a legend regarding the hill named Calvary above my village: it says there was a monastery there. But I could not find any remnants of it there, searching for it already as a child.
Below the village, there is a chapel that has another legend of its origin: There was a gallow and an execution place on the hill above it and when one person was beheaded, the head tumbled down the hill to the place of this chapel saying “I am not guilty!”.
I saw Jesus on the cross
On a hill named Calvary
I said: “Do you hate mankind
for what they’ve done to you?”
He said: “Talk of love, not hate
I’ve things to do, it’s getting late
We’re all on one road
And we’re only passing through”
(Leonard Cohen)
Wasn’t Leonard Cohen Jewish? In which case I am calling out his cultural appropriation.
There is a small dilapidated Jeiwsh cemetery next to this little chapel at the side of the road.
After a few days in Canada and being forced to interact with the general population (many of whom are constantly sniffling due to VAIDS) …. one realizes the Greatness of Fast Eddy … we take this Greatness for granted… it is indeed an Ocean polluted with Imbe.ciles…
“many of whom are constantly sniffling due to VAIDS”
My cousin and her husband in Europe got the vaccine and later Covid. They now have some sort of medicated nasal spray for the ongoing runny noses, which have persisted for months. They’re mid 30’s. Nothing too serious beyond that though, for now.
My son had persistant cough since Injection x 2; I told him to eat pineapple.
He ate entire pineapple in one day (locally grown where he lives so relatively fresh) and his cough has disappeared for a week now.
Who knows, but there was an article about bromeliads and spikes.
Funny you mention coughing, in the office over the past week two people have coughing related injuries – e.g. sore ribs, hernia. I’ve never known that to be a thing before – at least in healthy, middle aged men.
Have you got a link to that article?
One of the biggest mistakes of the older populations is that they consider the younger generations lazy.
In fact, the younger populations are poorer due to the depletion and less healthy due to the genetic mutations that are hidden by better healthcare.
https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-uncover-the-biological-causes-of-social-withdrawal/
I was thinking that the problem with Japanese young people was more related to the problem underlying John Calhoun’s rat experiment.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-mouse-utopias-1960s-led-grim-predictions-humans-180954423/
Even if they were fed well, there was simply too many of them. They could sense they could not develop normally. There were no doubt biological markers, as well.
Nature must have some remarkable hidden population auto regulation. In the opposite, some males, fish I believe, can become females if the population gets too low.
Gail, in the Todd interview he talks about the role of journalism in society. You might find it useful. You seem to be taking a bit of a journalist role in the area of geopolitics. Which makes sense as energy declines the effects are seen in geopolitics. Todd says journalists must have a set of values. He bemoans current journalists as value free and nihilistic particularly in their coverage of politicians who have become value free and nihilistic.
Yes,
We need a simple set of rules which have survived the test of time and held societies together. Somehow we must balance the needs of the individual with the necessity of being a group; we perish alone.
“He bemoans current journalists as value free and nihilistic particularly in their coverage of politicians who have become value free and nihilistic.”
Values are rules of thumb which work for society as a whole, learning and inculcating them is a long and oftentimes painful process. Forgetting or abandoning them can lead to extinction: we call it decline and fall of empire
Dennis L.
This is one of the reasons I took to Norse Paganism, it has a set of values (often referred to as “Noble Virtues”) derived from the Havamal. This system stretches back millennia, covering the lean periods which Scandinavians lived through.
Note: I’m not saying one system is better than another here, merely making the point as the world goes to shit I suspect more people will fall back to traditional structures which have been proven to work in hard times.
The ‘Havamal’ is one of the most interesting and practical of ancient texts.
I’m fond of ‘Beowulf’, too – the Seamus Heaney version is excellent.
Buh bye Dave!
“Dave Hollis, Former Disney Executive and Podcast Host, Dies at 47”
Died suddenly in his sleep after dealing with heart problems. Fit as a fiddle and was dating his personal trainer. Let’s just assume he was vaxxed and boosted.
Schad!!
I wonder how many previously fit and healthy dudes are dying in the saddle?
Exertion seems to lead to rupture.
Yes, this is very schad and schorrowful.
Dave’s ex-wife Rachel published a self-help book in 2020 with an interesting title.
https://www.amazon.in/Didnt-See-That-Coming-Together/dp/0063010526
I’m having a long hard cry over this … I’m crying so hard I think I am laughing..
hahaha
F789 Dave
Also, three months ago….
Dave Hollis removed from [significant other and fitness trainer] Heidi’s challenge website.
https://www.reddit.com/r/hollisUncensored/comments/yowy1x/dave_hollis_removed_from_heidis_challenge_website/
The speculation is that Heidi “has poor control of her emotions, zero respect for boundaries, and no filter”, and so she may have driven Dave into overdrive emotionally as well as physically, and — if I may add — his Pfizer heart may well have not been able to stand the strain of all those adrenaline and cortisol surges.
Happy time for Dave’s family — more boosters for them!
right norm?
My guess would be that the fed has decided reserve currency status trumps all.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5m75wFQiQ4c
This is a good video. I made it all the way to the end. He points out what should be obvious: Rising interest rates make the value of the assets that a bank holds fall. In fact, this is true pretty close to universally. Rising interest rates are a problem for insurance companies and for pension plans, because their investment holdings (especially bonds at lower interest rates) become worth less. In fact, I would expect the same thing to happen to home prices and stock market prices, as well.
The point that this fellow makes is that these are unrealized capital losses. Accounting practices for banks hide these unrealized capital losses from the public, until they are realized. (This is also true for insurance companies and pension funds, to a significant extent.)
He then goes through the ways bank problems shows up, both in the repo market (which he says is like selling your home and 5:00pm and buying it back at 9:00am, as a way of indirectly borrowing money), and in bank borrowing from the Federal Home Loan Board.
In the past, when the market has been stressed, this fellow shows charts indicating that the Federal Reserve has taken steps to help out: lower interest rates and increase liquidity. This time it is doing the opposite. The situation looks likely to blow up.
His guess as to the possible triggering event is cyber attack.
We are now in week 3 of the ion data breach.
https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8662-23?utm_source=govdelivery
NATO has no capacity to assist UKR in the war against Russia. It has put them up to an inevitable loss from the get go. USA and UK intervened to stop the peace deal and insisted that UKR keep attacking Russia, but it has made zero effort to see that it had the weaponry that was always going to be needed to sustain the fight. NATO could not care less what happens to UKR, it has deliberately got it destroyed, all so that Europe would split from Russia.
Russia and Europe were building energy, trade, tech and diplomatic ties, and Europe was getting closer to China. So USA had to stop that, and it even did a state terrorist attack on the NS1/2 gas pipelines. UKR is getting completely trashed, and Europe will have permanent energy and economic problems. But they allowed USA/ UK to play them, so they have no one to blame but themselves. UK is just a poodle to USA, and this war will only harm UK too.
> West’s Ability to Arm Ukraine Continues to Wane
Russia is making gains; the West cannot maintain its level of support. This cannot lead to victory by the West.
NATO is developing a cunning new strategy – how to win the war by using less ammo.
Ben Wallace the UK Defence Minister has announced how current Ukrainian Army trainees in the UK are being taught how to fight with less ammo, as they’ve been using too much.
This new approach is guaranteed to beat those dumb Russians, who think the way to winning is by bombarding the Ukies with artillery at ten times the rate the Ukies can return fire. That’s so old school.
The Ukies think they’re doing so well and the front lines are so safe that they’ve started drafting teenage girls. Here’s a busload of them on their way to the frontline: https://t.me/Slavyangrad/33661
Interesting factoid: 75% of Ukie casualties never actually see a Russian soldier.
Ukies need to learn to frag their officers. That is shoot them in the back. Then surrender to the good guys.
Frag the officers, frag the doctors, the politicians, the drug regulators and the research scientists – what a Paradise would await us!
A sentiment which I do not of course endorse in any way.
There’s a firing range just a mile from me, and it’s very busy at present: no doubt some Ukies are being trained in the art of killing with next to no ammo.
I should think a few snipers should finish off the Russkies, don’t you? Make every bullet count!
Rule Britannia!
Inflation/deflation:
Natural gas, burp:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/europe-is-now-stuck-with-a-huge-stockpile-of-natural-gas-after-hoarding-it-last-year-for-a-brutal-winter-that-never-came/ar-AA17vmHr?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=2005066f3bc24cf49a43039ae1923eac
All commodities have carrying costs: store corn and it deteriorates, main reason for storing is to make shorter trips during harvest, sell into a higher market in spring.
Gold has a very high carrying cost: carry it and you will know the weight of the world. Stuff is heavy and subject to theft. Then there are transaction costs when converted into stuff.
Money is very good for transactions, but it requires trust which is priceless.
I am suspecting deflation which is very tough to reverse once it starts so it would seem.
Dennis L.
I would think that Europe would be thankful that they had narrowly escaped a problem. I expect that winters are sufficiently variable, and natural gas supplies are sufficiently limited, that Europe will need to build natural gas supplies over at least two years.
Europe helped stir up the conflict in Ukraine. It is at least partially to blame for the high natural gas prices in the summer of 2022. Also, wind energy had not been favorable for quite some time in late 2022, pushing prices of all alternatives up. Recently, the supply of wind energy has been favorable.
When depending on wind energy, big shifts in supply and thus (indirectly ) natural gas prices, are likely to take place.
Transaction costs: The longer gas is stored, the more is lost into the atmosphere; the value of a ship load of gas decreases by the hour, there is no “money” in placing it into storage if one has to buy high, one stores in part to even out production in come to producers.
Can’t resist the end of the second paragraph:
“How many times must the cannonballs fly
Before they’re forever banned?
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind
The answer is blowing in the wind.” Peter Paul and Mary, early sixties as I recall.
Dennis L.
Dennis, I appreciate your positive values. Sadly, the US has been on a consistent and endless project of destroying Russia since 1945. It will never stop. It will only end when one side or the other falls.
One side stands with satan and one side stands with G_d I am sure the universe will turnout the way it is supposed to.
The substantial part of the nuclear of France was missing due to maintenance, which had a major impact.
Thank God, I never had the problem of feeling on my plagued back what an enormous weight gold can bring to the scales! Some problems pass you by without being noticed.
>> I am suspecting deflation which is very tough to reverse once it starts so it would seem.
You are BEYOND HELP
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1625519405240094720
Indeed. He seems incapable of understanding that some products might deflate and some inflate. It’s the mind setting of those born and raised in the West. They can not escape usage of faulty concepts.
News from the alternate reality. I am warning also Fast Eddy against reading a book on statistics, and all of you from going to the singularity and discovering a way to make fusion reactors work.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/blinken-warns-ukraine-against-seizing-crimea-about-face
Good one. A nod’s as good as a wink, eh what?
Excavations by the IAA have found a detailed military paycheck (one of only three legionary paychecks discovered in the entire Roman Empire), issued to a Roman legionary soldier from the period of the First Jewish-Roman War in AD 72. The paycheck is one of 14 Latin scrolls found at Masada by archaeologists – 13 of which was written on papyrus, and one on parchment paper.
The paycheck provides a detailed summary of a Roman soldier’s salary over two pay periods (out of three he would receive annually), including the various deductions that he was charged.
Dr. Oren Ableman, senior curator-researcher at the Israel Antiquities Authority Dead Sea Scrolls Unit, said: “The soldier’s paycheck included deductions for boots and a linen tunic, and barley fodder for his horse.”
“Surprisingly, the details indicate that the deductions almost exceeded the soldier’s salary. Whilst this document provides only a glimpse into a single soldier’s expenses in a specific year, it is clear that in light of the nature and risks of the job, the soldiers did not stay in the army only for the salary,” added Dr Ableman.
According to Dr. Ableman, “The soldiers may have been allowed to loot on military campaigns. Other possible suggestions arise from reviewing the different historical texts preserved in the Israel Antiquities Authority Dead Sea Scrolls Laboratory.
For example, a document discovered in the Cave of Letters in Nahal Hever from the time of the Bar Kokhba Revolt (AD 132–135), sheds light on some side hustles Roman soldiers used to earn extra cash. This document is a loan deed signed between a Roman soldier and a Jewish resident, the soldier charging the resident with interest higher than what was legal. This document reinforces the understanding that the Roman soldiers’ salaries may have been augmented by additional sources of income, making service in the Roman army far more lucrative.”
https://www.heritagedaily.com/2023/02/archaeologists-uncover-roman-soldiers-paycheck-at-masada/146215
Another lucrative source for the soldiers were donatives given by the Emperor on the anniversary of his coming into power, special events like a triumph celebration.
Septimus Severus, the African Emperor, advised his son’s to take good care of the soldiers and scorn everyone else…
When the government cannot afford to give soldiers (or anyone in a position of “power”) an adequate wage, the soldiers (and others) will use their power to get funds from well-to-do citizens in any way that they can. Graft becomes the norm.
This is why poor countries seem to have a high level of graft. This is why the US, as it has become poorer, has begun to see “regulatory capture,” that is “regulation is acquired by the industry and is designed and operated primarily for its benefit.” Or the World Health Organization gets funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation.
By the late empire citizens greatly feared their own army passing through their neighbourhood. There were many complaints to the emperor about soldiers commandeering food and other supplies. Their pay was nowhere near enough to even pay for basic food.
What about the soldier’s families? I think some of them, wives, kids, were allowed to settle near the army camp and eould need some allowances? Where there any claims that could be made by parents, spouses, parents or veterans that could be seen as an extra benefit? In times, when banking services were not ubiquitous the overall considerations needn’t be seen on the paycheck.
There’s a book, still have it, about “roman citizens in the shadow of history”, it basically reconstructs what we know about the lives of ordinary commoners in the roman empire. Mostly based on papyrus scripts from egypt because due to climate, they preserved very well.
The gist was:
In the beginning, roman soldiers of the standing army were NOT allowed to offically marry and pass anything on legally to wife or children.
Towards the end of empire, that however changed gradually.
In the end, as many sources would tell, the roman army was nothing but several corps of mercenaries who became increasingly lawless and out of control.
For the Covid affectionados:
From Campbell:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZhzWzoPB3M
A report from Germany, autopsy results, spike protein found with out nucleocapsid implying damage was from jab, not disease itself. If disease, expect to see both nucleocapsid and spike proteins.
I am personally not in this fight, for more years than I can remember my personal, religious belief has been to let the body fight its own battles as much as possible.
Dennis L.
I think that John Campbell provides a service, trying to make the scientific finding about the bad effects of the vaccine to a wider audience that simply those who are able to plow through academic articles, or substack reports based on these academic articles.
US Freedom Flyers
https://usfreedomflyers.substack.com/p/airlines-are-still-requiring-covid
Airlines are still requiring COVID-19 injections for new hires
Let’s take a look at one major airline’s exemption questions – screenshots compiled January 2023
Flying Cristina
12 hr ago
By Cristina Field
Since the rollout of the Covid-19 injections, I watched my coworkers, friends, and industry professionals roll up their sleeves to take them willingly. But the dark side of the last 2+ years is that many were coerced into submission. What you might not know is that most airlines are outwardly projecting that they’re not mandating the Covid-19 injections, but then telling new hires that they’re required, or not telling them they can apply for an exemption, then making them jump through hoops to get an exemption.
I had been asking around for screenshots of any of the exemption processes at the airlines, and in January I hit gold. I will not be sharing the screenshots or the name of the company to protect the employee that shared them with me.
****
First screenshot shared- had the large logo of the company, with the question: “Are you fully vaccinated against COVID-19?”
It then goes on to say, “You are fully vaccinated when you’ve received both doses in a two-shot series, such as for the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, or a single-dose vaccine, such as Janssen/Johnson & Johnson.” With the ability to click a box that says yes, or a box that says no.
Fully vaccinated to them, even at this point, only means both doses of the 2 shot series or a single shot of J&J. We must remember that with any number of injections you’re in EUA territory, as well as the FAA’s broken guidance that pilots not take a drug within 12 months post FDA approval
Inflation/deflation:
From TM 2/11/23 comment post, a response to a reader’s comment by TM.
“Hello Paul
I think I may have found the source of those projections – a monetary policy report published this month, showing growth not returning until Q1 2026, by which time CPI inflation is down to 0.4%, policy rate is 3.3% (i.e. above CPI inflation), and the unemployment rate is a lot higher than it is now.
SEEDS, as you may know, references underlying or ‘clean’ economic output (C-GDP), stripped of the cosmetic effect of credit expansion. This has the UK at 0% growth in 2023, falling to -0.3% by 2026 and -0.7% by 2030. As ECoEs rise, this translates into more severe declines in prosperity, whilst increases in the real costs of necessities exert tightening pressures on the affordability of discretionary purchases and capital investment.
I’ll look into the point about capital and labour”
My guess is deflation as well, I see it from an agricultural point.
A guess is a liquidity crunch; productive stuff remains, repriced but in effect the same percentage cash flow as before.
Money is transactions, nothing more; until a transaction takes place, price cannot be determined and the aggregate value of a stock for example is determined by its income stream as marginal sales are not total liquidation sales.
Reason for not selling stocks: taxes on unrealized gains; fear of losing some of the illusory gains, or one is not as rich as one thinks.
The “report” reference is linked below.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-report/2023/february/monetary-policy-report-february-2023.pdf
Dennis L.
Back in the 1930s, deflation seemed to take place when wealthy farmers could undercut the cost of production of less wealthy farmers because they could afford better equipment for growing crops. They could sell their farm products very cheaply, and still make money. Many poor farmers (and hired hands on farms) found themselves without jobs or without funds to pay back loan. Bank failures followed. These banks weren’t bailed out.
Also, in Europe, Germany was approaching “peak black coal.” It couldn’t afford US exports. The UK was past its peak coal, limiting what it could purchase as well.
I am afraid what we will be up against this time is a “nothing to buy” problem because of broken supply lines and the inability to get replacement parts for machinery. Grocery stores won’t have much food. Used clothing may be available, but fuel of any type for automobiles will be a problem. Electricity will be intermittent at best.
If the government is still functioning and banks are still functioning, I would expect that governments would flood the system with stimulus funds, as much as possible. This would make for hyperinflation with respect to the few goods available to purchase.
I can see the point about deflation, if pensions of all kinds stop paying and debt defaults bring banks down. Also, most people will not have jobs any more. But I think it depends more on what banks (or very temporary cryptocurrencies) can provide in funding for the common person.
Thinking about the situation some more, I expect that the demand (based on the inflated currency) would be almost entirely for food and water, at a location near where the person is currently living. But the demand for everything else would go to zero. Farmers might have difficulty selling what produce they could produce, if fuel to transport it to market was not available. Stores might not be open. Thus, in some sense, the demand for practically everything would go to zero, even with lots of money added to the system.
The action range of the weakening individuals drops, their needs also, except for the healthcare, which is rising with the age.
This is the final crux that almost no one gets.
I long ago stopped trying to explain this very very very simple thing to anyone in this society.
Most modern humans will die of the horseman and never even know that it was an unshod hoof that crushed their skulls.
https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/russian-diplomats-issue-dire-warnings-that-war-with-us-is-close/
Russian Diplomats Issue Dire Warnings that War with US Is Close
New WSJ article: To Prevent Huge Wildfires, Australia Leans More on Indigenous Wisdom
Visit by U.S. interior secretary highlights importance of traditional practices in managing the environment
I am sure that thinking about all of our building as “assets” interfered with the idea of doing controlled burns to prevent larger, more destructive fires. Now, the many transmission lines going through wooded area add to the cause of fires (often lines to hydroelectric, wind or solar installations). We also have many homes built in wooded areas. The combination is asking for problems, in my opinion.
Humans! Rage! https://t.me/leaklive/12284
And their bosses are …. the Elders … and the MOREONS believe they have democracy hahahahahahaha
RON PAUL ASKS EDWARD SNOWDEN, WHAT/WHO IS THE DEEP STATE?
Edward Snowden is the cousin of CIA agent Marc Zuckerberg (shared previous children’s pictures)
🔫 🎧 🔫
The most uncanny feature of the deep state, Snowden says, is its ability to hide its mere existence from the public.
“The Deep State … is a mass of governments that survive beyond administrations, but do not respond to people’s policies. It does not belong to any particular political party, but serves all parties. Across administrations.“
The Deep State’s culture of secrecy convinces employees that they will never be held accountable for their actions, Snowden said, since even routine communications between CIA and NSA employees are secret.
Psst… it’s the bankers!
IMF. Rothschild!
https://rumble.com/v1e3gk3-ron-paul-asks-edward-snowden-whatwho-are-the-deep-state.html
(Byoblu)
Under David Puente’s request, Facebook bans Pulitzer journalist Seymour Hersh about his report on North Stream II sabotage.
David Puente is an Italian so-called ‘fact checker’ who works for the Italian super-main-stream media website news ‘Open’, ruled by Italian journalist Enrico Mentana.
Therefore Hersh’s report has been then defined ‘conspiracy’ theory.
https://www.byoblu.com/2023/02/16/facebook-censura-il-premio-pulitzer-hersh-su-input-di-david-puente-il-ritorno-della-santa-inquisizione/
Student , I think it is fake news . No where else on social media or internet .
When I post something I check it many times.
Of course I’m human and I can make mistakes.
But the news is unfortunately correct.
Byoblu, Open, David Puente, Enrico Mentana are well known realities in Italy, in their bad and good ways.
https://www.open.online/2023/02/14/sabotaggio-nord-stream-teoria-complotto-seymour-hersh-usa-norvegia-fc/
from the article: ”Rating: ‘FALSE’ – “Content with no basis in facts. Conspiracy theories attributing the cause of an event to the covert work of individuals or groups, which may cite true or unverifiable information but present far-fetched conclusions. Example: claiming, without any evidence, that members of the government are directly responsible for a terrorist attack in order to offer a pretext for going to war” (link).
*Chapters marked with an asterisk were added on Feb. 15, 2023.
This article contributes to a FACEBOOK project to combat fake news and misinformation in its social platforms. Read here for more information about our partnership with Facebook.”
It cannot be a conspiracy considering that the Swedish authorities have already determined that there is sabotage. Unless we assume that a schoolboy carried out the sabotage alone and just for fun, of course..
An example of the technical development as a result of increasing complexity from the standard work by Werner Vogel: “Glas Chemie”, Springer, 1992 (automatically translated). It is about the development of optical glasses, especially in the field of microscopy:
“The new Schott optical glasses [note.: the borosilicate glasses invented by Otto Schott] had dispersion and special partial dispersion values, which made it possible to almost completely correct the image error known as the “secondary spectrum”.” (Page 12)
“The identification of the TB, cholera and malaria pathogen by Robert Koch would never have been possible without the result of the Abbe-Schott-Zeiss collaboration.” [Page 12]
“This is the first decisive step forward in the field of optical glasses in the Jena development period.: by Otto Schott] with a relatively small number of glass raw materials, so the second period of development, which was triggered by the basic patent of [G. W.] Morey in the USA, is characterized by the use of almost exclusively new elements.
A significant influence on the pace of development was also exerted by the chemical industry, which must be able to produce the completely new raw materials in sufficient purity and at tolerable prices. It was only after these prerequisites had been created that the second decisive stage of development of optical glasses could be initiated.” (Page 19)
Not only the availability of the necessary chemical components was a crucial precondition to progress, but also technical development in other areas:
“However, a high degree of low viscosity and a tendency to crystallize, as well as exceptional aggressiveness against any ceramic crucible material, initially did not allow the glasses to be produced in larger pieces. This new period of development of optical glass is characterized by exclusive electric heating in combination with completely new melting and casting technologies. The latter have made the production of the new glasses on technical scales possible in the first place. Figure 1.12 shows an inductively heated hermetically sealed Pt crucible used today [Note.: a platinum crucible] for the production of light-evaporating, low-viscosity and light-crystallizing optical glasses with extreme optical properties.” (Page 18f.)
Gail, if you are collecting stuff, perhaps in preparation for a larger publication, email me, I’d send fotos of the respective pages, the book is hard to get.
The collectivization of the farmland in the communist countries was in fact sezing the farmland by the industrial workers and applying the industrial agriculture.
whereas in the West industrial agriculture was entirely avoided, and even now Russia is going on a totally different agricultural path.
The small farms disappear in the West, too.
What is a totally different agricultural path of Russia?
It’s not. Its latifundia in Russia too.
i always understood that the (Ukrainian) farmland and its produce was seized in the 1930s to pay for the industrialisation of Russia, and why 3 million Ukrainians starved to death
and which acciunts for the animosity between them now.
This wouldn’t be good for relations between Ukraine and Russia, I can see.
The elderly population tends to fall into fantasy that they are leaving some heritage to the next generation.
In fact, they exist thanks to the next generation and their heritage has already been consumed.
You provide good observation here, MG, most will be “standard assets”, without the support of fossil fuel economy. Here in the United States, real estate is viewed as a solid asset/investment. But in actuality it’s a mirage and ponzi scheme like most of the financial system, that includes Farmland.
Why American Cities Are Broke – The Growth Ponzi Scheme [ST03]
This is the 3rd video in the Strong Towns series, and is probably the most important core topic: the fact that American car-dependant cities and suburbs are financially insolvent, and function like a Ponzi scheme. This is the reason most American cities are bankrupt.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7IsMeKl-Sv0&t=367s
Here, where I live in South Florida, the BIGGEST news story is the lack of affordable housing, especially for rentals, and the skyrocketing Home Owners Associations fees, Insurance, taxes ect that are driving long time residences bankrupt and forced to move or be homeless.
How Miami became the center of America’s rental housing crisis
Limited land availability and high demand from Latin American investment buyers and people relocating for remote work are driving up rents
By Deirdra Funcheon
Wait till another major hurricane strikes and wipes out the infrastructure.
That’s why I don’t sweat it too much….enjoy BAU today
I have already seen this video. It explains a lot.
The older generation tends to lose track of the wear and tear, the deterioration, the ageing, the obsolescence and the depletion.
When energy availability changes so does the value of real estate. It depends on water, eachability, garden space, close forests and security aspects. The real estate price of course also depends on the demographic development, which is affected by food availability and vaccinations…
I think you (or someone else) posted this video before. I listened to it again, because I thought it was so good. I am sure that the fact that oil prices have risen has contributed to the problem as well.
I doubt that shopping centers can even pay for maintaining their big asphalt parking lots. The big shopping center near where I live went bankrupt, probably back in 2020. Someone else bought it out, very recently. The parking lot looks like it needs lots of asphalt work. We will see if the new owner has any ideas for increasing the number of tenants and maintaining the shopping mall. I cannot imagine that the city is getting very much in taxes from bankrupt malls.
Until the asphalt revolution, roads in Britain were repaired from mostly local materials by destitute people, often older, given the work in exchange for food and lodging.
They often died on the job, recorded in some paintings of the time.
In feudal days, it was one of the duties which landowners could demand from their peasants, young or old.
A fairly resilient system, if cruel when applied to the elderly: I can already sense Kulm wanting to up-vote me!
Road repairs here are done rather badly, and often don’t last even one winter. And this is a ‘rich’ UK bio-tech hub…….
This is a photo of road repairs we saw being done in India. It looked pretty low-tech to us, but perhaps there was some asphalt used.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/men-repairing-road.jpg
“Moroccans Overwhelmed by Rising Inflation, Outraged by Unresponsive Government… The situation resulted in protests in several cities, including Tangier and Meknes, among others, over the weekend…
“In souks, vegetables and fruits are untouchable for low-income people and those who do not have an income at all.”
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2023/02/354028/moroccans-overwhelmed-by-rising-inflation-outraged-by-unresponsive-government
https://climateandeconomy.com/2023/02/15/15th-january-2023-todays-round-up-of-economic-news/
Burn it down?
Makes one wonder about what drove the Arab Spring… things are at least as bad now .. yet nothing.
From climate and economy links:
https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Copper-Prices-Flatline-As-Chinese-Demand-Struggles-To-Recover.html
Copper Prices Flatline As Chinese Demand Struggles To Recover
–Copper prices have lost steam since the beginning of February.
–Optimism over a potential rebound in Chinese demand has faded.
–Unrest in Peru and falling production in Chile has caused some analysts to warn of a potential copper deficit later in the year.
Also:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-15/chinese-protests-over-health-insurance-underscore-risks-for-xi?sref=eWpk04kZ
It wasn’t the vaccines Damar. Just keep telling yourself that, Damar….hahaha
“Damar Hamlin Is Asked About Why His Heart Stopped: ‘Something I Want To Stay Away From’
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/damar-hamlin-asked-about-why-his-heart-stopped-something-i-want-stay-away
Another “not-quite-volunteer” for Ukraine cannon-fodder:
https://videopress.com/v/kXeXSLPL
THE 3RD WORLD WAR HAS BEGUN : ESCALATION IN UKRAINE WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING – with English subtitles
Emmanuel Todd Emmanuel TODD is an anthropologist, demographer and historian. He’s back on Élucid to analyze the little-known mechanisms of the war in Ukraine, which keeps extending, and threatens to destabilize for a long time the world we used to know. From the study of family systems, through the diplomatic practice of States, their deep strategies, or the influence of the press, Emmanuel Todd, known for having predicted the collapse of the USSR at the age of 25, offers to Olivier Berruyer his hypotheses on the future of this terrible conflict.
Emmanuel Todd, hello.
Hello.
I am very happy to welcome you on the YouTube channel of the Elucid website. You are an anthropologist, demographer, historian and futurist.
You specialised in the study of family systems and their role in social phenomena and ideological systems.
You made some pretty prophetic predictions: as early as 1976 you were predicting the collapse of USSR in the following years, and in 2003 you wrote “After the Empire” on the breakdown of the American empire, at a time when everyone was talking about hyperpower.
Last June you published a book on geopolitics, on the Ukrainian conflict called “The Third World War has already begun”. It has a great feature, as can be seen here, is that you published it in Japan and there is no translation of this work which was a resounding success. You have sold over 100,000 copies in Japan.
You waited a while before expressing yourself in France, first in Marianne, then in an interview that was widely read in Le Figaro, then more recently on Europe 1 or LCI. We wanted to invite you to take the time so that you could develop your very original views on the Ukrainian conflict. The first question comes quite naturally, why did you decide to write this book and publish it in Japan and not in France? The atmosphere was emotional in France.
I am a historian. I have the fault of always looking at current historical events with an eye that remains cold. Maybe it’s a professional deformation, but I thought that if I started doing analysis in June,in France, I would get socially destroyed, And for nothing, in fact. So I haven’t found any use for it. This is not really cowardice.
Japan is different. Japan has a very deep history of conflict with Russia. But Japan is Japan and Ukraine is far away. War is happening in Europe. War is happening far away. So Japan is not emotional about the war in Ukraine specifically. And the second reason is that in France, I have put myself through my research or my prospective analysis, most often in contradiction with the dominant thinking in France. My opposition to the Europe of the Maastricht Treaty, too, opposed me with my environment.
But in Japan, it’s a different world. I am a fully recognised guy and I can express myself. Here I am ostracized. I don’t have access to state television or state radio. I am marginalised by the most self-righteous media. I thank Le Figaro, but Le Monde has always been hostile to me,
which is a paradox because I worked at “Le Monde des Livres” when I was young.
You chose a shocking title for this book: “The Third World War has begun”. and that’s the way you look at this conflict, I recall that you decided to do so last June, now we are realizing that it is taking a turn that is becoming more and more dangerous. What is your analysis of this conflict?
What made me realise that it would last, is a reflection on John Mearsheimer’ first analysis, at a time when everyone was in hiding. This American realist geopolitician said: For Russia, Ukraine is an existential issue. Because it is existential, the Russians will hit harder and harder. They will never get out of this war. And here he was drawing a conclusion that may be wrong, but it’s not certain, it’s: and so the Russians will win. But the axiom behind this is: for the US it is not existential. And this is a mistake.
This is a mistake because it is obvious if Russia holds out militarily, it will certainly hold, but, unexpectedly, in economic terms it holds out. The proof will have been given that a great nation can survive, organise itself with other major nations such as India and China, or major players such as Saudi Arabia, outside the US monetary and financial control system. And so in that case, the central role of the dollar will collapse. And America lives on this central role of the dollar. The foreign trade deficit in goods is still growing in the US despite protectionism, some by Obama, a lot by Trump, some by Biden again, because America can’t get back to work.
There is something non-reversible about the US trade deficit. And if Russia proves that it can hold out, America’s material resources will collapse. So the war is existential for the US. They need to get increasingly involved and we have the prospective certainty, that this war will last and spread. This is the first point. This is the critique, the complement to Mearsheimer’s analysis.
The second point is that people have a naive view of the war that historians do not have. For the people, for the emotion that prevails, war is people in tanks, in planes, with guns, firing at each other, There is blood, there are injured and dead people, there are destroyed buildings. It’s awful, it’s the Ukraine war. This is what people think war is all about.
But the reality of war, in the end, is always settled by economic power relations. The reason the Americans came out as the ultimate victors of the Second World War, was not even because they had made the military effort in terms of human lives, is because American industry accounted for 45% of world industrial production. And people didn’t understand that when the West put economic sanctions, they entered war.
People don’t realise that when you want to destroy a country economically, you produce dead people. The US blockades of Iraq have produced hundreds of thousands of deaths in Iraq, in very recent times. And people didn’t understand that.
Remember when: We’ll cut off Swift, Russia will collapse. And so we’ll cut off Swift and the Russians will starve. That was the project. We didn’t see it because it failed. In truth, Russia has disconnected itself. They had prepared, they were ready, probably even better than they imagined. They held out and we found ourselves with staggering inflation rates. Many European countries now have higher inflation rates than Russia.
Since we didn’t see our economic offensive failed, we didn’t see we had entered war. And the awareness comes because of the difficulties in bringing down Russia, the highly uncertain military situation, which is undoubtedly very unfavourable to Ukraine at the moment, have led Westerners to these symbolic gestures of sending Leopard and Challenger tanks, maybe Abrams, who knows, Leclerc if we find one or two that work, in Ukraine because we have returned to instinctive symbolism, I would say, and ill-informed about the war, because the tank is an instrument of war which, in people’s minds, refers to the Second World War, refers to the war, etc.
So now we understand that all Western countries will supply offensive war material to Ukraine. And that’s it, we got it. The thesis is confirmed. People now admit that the Third World War has started.
But we had all the elements to know this would happen. We need to identify things and clearly say where we’re talking from. I think we all have cognitive biases. We all start from somewhere to analyse a situation that involves us in some way. The important thing for me is to remain, in the current context, a historian. It is a difficult intellectual and psychological exercise.
I think that, I don’t know if we should consider this as an opportunity, for a 71-year-old historian to see a world war break out, but I benefit from the calm of age, the sense of time. I gave myself time to reflect. I intervene now in the debate but I’m not Putin’s agent. What I am calling for in France is the opening of a debate about the reality of what is happening, the forces at work, the motivations, etc. This is strange for a liberal democracy.
In theory, liberalism means pluralism of opinion and expression, and we’ve been seeing it on our TV sets for months and months, Gangs of people who get excited together by denying, with absolutely no interest in the reality of things. If I say: look, be careful, Russia’s resources are not as weak as you think, it can be very useful to an opponent of the Kremlin. The aim is to produce data which allow both to be intelligent in the approach to the problem. And also we are in a democracy, we are a liberal democracy. And in doing this work, I defend the principles of liberal democracy.
[Note: Transcript of captions by Chris; paragraph groupings by Gail]
There is much more to the interview that is not in the transcript. Well worth reading/viewing. Todd acknowledges that the west is ruled by oligarchs. Todd says the press no longer works but he says it in a wonderful French intellectual kind of way 🙂 He rips into the English and even mention why the Scot want to leave hehehe He says a victory by the west would be a disaster because France would be next on the US hit list. His use of language is so good.
Thanks! I will have to look at it.
The west is not ruled by oligarchs.
The world is ruled by The Elders
Todd says, “The two most despised professions in France are politicians and journalists.”
“Healthcare in the US is 18% of GDP, compared to 9% to 11% of GDP in normally developing countries. Life expectancy in the US is falling in the US, when it isn’t elsewhere. The high spending represents high physician salaries and very high drug costs.
Russian GDP represents much more real values, related to the production of goods. In the end, I came up with a new balance of things. By thinking this represents GDP, what you would have called in the past “material balances.” I don’t want to go back to the Soviet economy. But then I thought, the dynamism, and the capacity for innovation, and the adaptation and the flexibility of an economy, you need markets, banks, and above all, a trained workforce. And industrial flexibility, which is important in the case of war.
Russian population is less than half of US population. In the US, of 7% of college students study engineering; in Russia, 25% study engineering. Russia is training 30% more engineers. This explains the fact that Russia survived the sanctions of 2014. Russias wheat production has almost doubled since the eve of the 2014 sanctions, while US wheat production has fallen. (Russia’s wheat production is now higher than that of the US.)
Russia is now the largest exporter of nuclear power plants. This explains why Russia has overtaken the US in terms of nuclear capability and hypersonic missiles. The US imports about half of its scientists and engineers. They are Indians and Chinese. When you do a realistic analysis of the US economy, of an economy that wants to detach itself from China and suffocate China, and make its own microchips. But the US can only do this by importing China’s skilled labor. In China, the jobs are about transforming materials.”
Yes, very good: an historian exhibiting the good sense, long-perspective and erudition one would expect.
But let’s get back to Genders and Green stuff……
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-refining-giants-resume-purchases-russias-flagship-crude
>> China’s largest state-held refiners have resumed purchases of Russia’s flagship Urals crude at well below the $60 cap
Russia is run by morons. Selling oil for “well below $60” when brent is $85 and WTI is $79. Good job, way to go, might as well shoot themselves in the head and kill their offspring to speed up the process.
I do not believe we can trust what is said in public by anyone. What the private, secret agreement between China and Russia is we will never know.
This article seems to be talking about the same low revenue issue for Russia that the video by Joe Blogs talked about not long ago. It would seem like the low price for the Urals oil cannot make Russia very happy.
I see the article ends,
Perhaps stopping production and restarting it would be such a problem that Russia is willing to sell at a low price. The situation has to make Russia, unhappy, however.
They don’t care about the price in dollars. They sell for rubles. Not sure this makes a difference, but Yuan to ruble may make up for low dollar price. Also, they are trying to establish ruble as currency for petrol, maybe willing to discount to get greater share, as Amazon does.
It’s about how much stuff they can get with the oil they sell to China. Perhaps China sells the same items to Russia for less oil than they do to U.S. We have to stop thinking in dollars and think in barrels of oil. Maybe Russia has access to unique Chineese goods the U.S. doesn’t. I don’t think it is as simple as comparing exchange rates.
Just because they’re selling in rubles doesn’t mean they don’t care about comparative value. Otherwise known as fairness.
Last I heard, the yuan was (dubiously)pegged to the dollar and the ruble is currently about the same to the dollar as it was before the war, so there’s no currency arbitrage to be had.
Your last point is valid.
Yes stopping production is bad for oil companies. Russia is in a bad place when it comes to future production there is not much new oil that will come onto the market
Russia is being used by China. I disagree with those who claim that there is a “new alliance” being formed by the B(R)ICS 2.0 with Russia.
Russia is like a single Cape Buffalo who has been seperated from the herd and is being surrounded by very hungry hyenas, wild dogs and lions. Russia is a force to be reckoned with for sure, but is still a huge feast if it can be brought down. I think Russia is very nervous as well as pissed that they are having to deal with China on China’s terms. The rest of the world will be looking to carve up Russia for her resources and Russia knows this, and has been quietly building up its military as much as it can without weakening its economy for this eventuality. Russia seems to be trying to have some fiscal and monetary discipline, which is a hell of a lot more than can be said for the rest of the world. How much revenue is flowing in from sale of its oil is anyone’s guess, but I think it is a lot less than they had hoped. Just my gut feeling.
Cheap oil will be a big help for China if the US starts a war with them. Cheap oil is a war winner.
Urals oil has always sold for a low price relative to Brent and WTI
That’s not true at all. It was within a couple bucks for the last 10 years (select the 10 year chart) until the invasion.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
According to that page the futures price of Urals is currently $58 and they are selling it to China at a $10 discount. No biggie.
I’m saying they should refuse to sell for this “buyers cartel” sub-$60 price.
They can force the price higher because the world cannot do without the product – 5 million barrels of exports. Instead of getting a fair price in a situation where they have the power, they’re selling for peanuts. Pathetic.
I think Russia should cease all exports of fossil fuels and use cheap energy at home to develop their own industries.
why do you have to believe that Russia is selling at that price? do you have proof? these transactions are not visible via SWIFT.
drb,
because it is consistent with data being released by the Russian Finance Ministry showing big cuts in revenue
And would it not be advantageous to publish those data, for Russia? Sun Tzu and all that. I am saying that on the ground you see nothing different from one year ago. The Western elites will pat themselves on the back, and will continue barking up a tree where the cat isn’t. In other words, I see it as advantageous for Russia to publish such data. Why has Glazyev said nothing?
drb, yes, lying to make the enemy think you are weak is a good idea in war.
An interesting analysis on price received by Russia .
https://re-russia.net/en/expertise/049/
Thanks, that paints a very different picture
Thanks very much for posting that, Ravi. It may well settle the political discussion we’re having here regarding how the ‘Price Cap’ is playing out: it’s just more Disaster Capitalism.
To me, his conclusion looks a lot like the global elites — who control almost all countries under the mantle of finance capitalism — are undertaking a massive last-minute asset stripping of the Russian nanny state’s tax receipts via the slush fund created by the ‘Price Cap’ fake narrative. In the shadowbanking system, this oil-backed slush fund would be prime collateral ripe for some serious leveraging, and all the while it hollows out the Russian nanny state, just like the Western nanny states are all being hollowed out by their respective slush funds of war.
In the context of the HTOE, the ‘Price Cap’ is the ‘cash considerations’ part of the Ukrainian horsetrade. Simplistically speaking, in exchange for Russia receiving Ukraine and ‘cash considerations,’ the US receives the senior stake Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and cash considerations, and China receives Iraq, a junior stake in Saudi Arabia/Gulf oil, Taiwan, and the essential dark money cash considerations for the transition from consumer economics to barebones security state national socialism.
Kulm you may be right. How do we restore a monarchy and the landed gentry? To restore a solid foundation for society.
test
The last part of the Lord of Rings series ends with the Return of the King, the Return of Old Order.
Their return means society returns to the old normal, without the anarchy
How can you restore gentry, if the soil is depleted and needs industrial inputs? And the industry is powered by the workers, who need their share.
it’s impossible. The land is exhausted. It will have to be abandoned for centuries and return to forest. No fields, no people, no gentry.
Why is NYC and surroundings, home of Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Henry Kissinger, George Soros has a house, several low level Rothschild’s live in Manhattan, etc.. being subjected to carcinogens from the dirty little people of Ohio?
Because perhaps not every major catastrophic event is a function of human agency, or otherwise if it is: sabotage from across the ocean.
But, I really assume with the former.
Feel free to Shad on this one
MSN (https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/news/james-flynn-dies-co-producer-on-the-banshees-of-inisherin-was-57/ar-AA17oY5I?ocid=U145DHP&pc=U145&cvid=6f5baacb89cc41019e9c611ee36a2b55)
James Flynn Dies: Co-Producer On ‘The Banshees Of Inisherin’ Was 57
Truth https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/65074
Dead https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/general-news/dave-hollis-former-disney-distribution-chief-dies-at-47-1235324966/?fbclid=IwAR1GMfc33r70WguXerE6mvIjTkPpKvISwjsuGJN5nTuWdttyG2R04QmgKKw
https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/65263
like i said eddy
your command of the english language tells us that you cannot command anything—except in fantasy.
your RL would make me shudder—if you had one.
remember those girls at the med centre who you bawled out for trying to assassinate you—then we found out it was just –”well i would have—if”
couple of youngsters—made mincemeat out of you—or would have if you’d dared to say a wrong word to either of them.
all meek and servile were we eddy?
a born ranter—in your own head—like that pedo chaser i know in RL–insignificant little nobody, just attention seeking. The police keep warning him off.
2 years of vax and covid rant—desperate to hang onto it, cos there’s nothing else eddy?
Norm is jubilant, clopping Eddy over the head with one taunt after the next!
Eddy is too beside himself to respond, crying over the world population skyrocketing:
“But the Bosche mutation!? Where are you!? I was told there would be a Bosche mutation and ROF!? It’s just around the corner, I know it is, it has to be!”
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
Ivan – The Bosche mutation theory was originally based on the vaccine being a traditional vaccine which would have the elements of the actual virus in it. None of the vaccines initially rolled out had ANY of the elements of the virus in them.
He eventually understood this and modified his position but still reasonably believed that gene jabs could still encourage detrimental mutations which it still might have. We just don’t know yet what the fuck is going to happen but something sure is happening.
Is that a longwinded way of saying Eddy has been taken for a ride?
You won’t live long to eat those words if Bossche ends up right
ruckus?–wats ruckus?
can you only manage 4 figure words?
are 6 figure words beyond you?
Eddy, why have you returned home?
A final visit before The Great Die Off? (UEP)