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A major reason for the growth in the use of renewable energy is the fact that if a person looks at them narrowly enough–such as by using a model–wind and solar look to be useful. They don’t burn fossil fuels, so it appears that they might be helpful to the environment.
As I analyze the situation, I have reached the conclusion that energy modeling misses important points. I believe that profitability signals are much more important. In this post, I discuss some associated issues.
Overview of this Post
In Sections [1] through [4], I look at some issues that energy modelers in general, including economists, tend to miss when evaluating both fossil fuel energy and renewables, including wind and solar. The major issue in these sections is the connection between high energy prices and the need to increase government debt. To prevent the continued upward spiral of government debt, any replacement for fossil fuels must also be very inexpensive–perhaps as inexpensive as oil was prior to 1970. In fact, the real limit to fossil fuel extraction and to the building of new wind turbines and solar panels may be government debt that becomes unmanageable in an inflationary period.
In Section [5], I try to explain one reason why published Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROEI) indications give an overly favorable impression of the value of adding a huge amount of renewable energy to the electric grid. The basic issue is that the calculations were not set up for this purpose. These models were set up to evaluate the efficiency of generating a small amount of wind or solar energy, without consideration of broader issues. If these broader issues were included, EROEI indications would be much lower (less favorable).
One of the broader issues omitted is the fact that the electrical output of wind turbines and solar panels does not match up well with the timing needs of society, leading to the need for a great deal of energy storage. Another omitted issue is the huge quantity of energy products and other materials required to make a transition to a mostly electrical economy. It is easy to see that both omitted issues would add a huge amount of energy costs and other costs, if a major transition is made. Furthermore, wind and solar have gotten along so far using hidden subsidies from the fossil fuel energy system, including the subsidy of being allowed to go first on the electricity grid. EROEI calculations cannot evaluate the amount of this hidden subsidy.
In Section [6], I point out the true indicator of the feasibility of renewables. If electricity generation using wind and solar energy are truly helpful to the economy, they will generate a great deal of taxable income. They will not require the subsidy of going first, or any other subsidy. This does not describe today’s wind or solar.
In Section [7] and [8], I explain some of the reasons why EROEI calculations for wind and solar tend to be misleadingly favorable, even apart from broader issues.
Economic Issues that Energy Modelers Tend to Miss
[1] The economy is very short of oil that is inexpensive-to-extract. The economy seems to require a great deal more government debt when energy prices are high. Models for renewable energy production need to consider this issue, even if any substitution for oil is very indirect.
I think of the problem of rising energy prices for an economy as being like a citizen faced with an increase in food costs. The citizen will attempt to balance his budget by adding more debt, at least until his credit cards get maxed out. This is why we should expect to see an increase in government debt when oil prices are high; oil and other fossil fuels are as essential to the economy as food is to humans.
Figure 1 shows that most US government funding shortfalls occurred when oil prices were above $20 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices. For the 15-year period 2008 through 2022, US government expenditures were 26% higher than its receipts.
Figure 2 shows a reference chart of average annual oil prices, adjusted for inflation.
Figure 2. Average annual inflation-adjusted Brent oil prices based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.
The reason why oil prices tend to be high now is because the inexpensive-to-extract oil has mostly been extracted. What is left is oil that is expensive to extract. The low prices in the years surrounding 1998 reflected a supply-demand mismatch after the Asian Economic Crisis of 1997. The crisis held down demand at the same time as production was ramping up in Iraq, Venezuela, Canada, and Mexico.
[2] Economists tend to assume that shortages of oil will lead to much higher fossil fuel prices, thereby making renewables inexpensive in comparison. One reason this doesn’t happen is related to the buildup of debt, noted in Figure 1, when oil prices are high.
Section [1] shows that high oil prices seem to be associated with government deficits. A high-priced substitute for oil would almost certainly have a similar problem. This governmental debt tends to build up, and at some point becomes almost unmanageable.
A major problem occurs when there is a round of inflation. Central banks find a need to increase interest rates, partly to keep lenders interested in lending in an inflationary economy and partly to try to slow the inflation rate. In fact, the US is currently being tested by such a debt buildup and increase in interest rates, beginning about January 2022 (Figure 3).
Higher interest rates tend to have the effect of slowing the economy. In part, the economy slows because the cost of borrowing money rises. As a result, businesses are less likely to expand, and would-be auto owners are likely to put off new purchases because of the higher monthly payments. Commercial real estate can also be adversely affected by rising interest rates if owners of buildings find it impossible to raise rents fast enough to keep up with higher interest rates on mortgages and higher costs of other kinds.
[3] It is uncertain in exactly which ways the economy might contract, in response to higher interest rates. Some ways the economy could contract would bring an early end to both the extraction of fossil fuels and the manufacturing of renewables. This is not reflected in models.
If the economy contracts, one possible result is a recession with lower oil prices. This clearly doesn’t fix the problem of the cost of wind and solar electricity being unacceptably high, especially when the cost of all the batteries and additional transmission lines is included. In some sense, the price needs to be equivalent to a $20 per barrel oil price, or lower, to stop the huge upward debt spiral.
Another possibility, rather than the US economy as a whole contracting, is that the US government will disproportionately contract; perhaps it will send many programs back to the states. In such a scenario, there is likely to be less, rather than more, funding for renewables. I understand that Republicans in Texas are already unhappy with the high level of wind and solar generation being used there.
A third possibility is hyperinflation, as the government tries to add more money to keep the overall system, especially banks and pension plans, from failing. Even with hyperinflation, there is no particular benefit to renewables.
A fourth possibility is disruption of trade relationships between the US and other countries. This could even be related to a new world war. Renewables depend upon worldwide supply lines, just as today’s fossil fuels do. Building and maintaining the electrical grid also requires worldwide supply lines. As these supply lines break, all parts of the system will be difficult to maintain; replacement infrastructure after storms will become problematic. Renewables may not last any longer than fossil fuels.
[4] Economists tend to miss the fact that oil prices, and energy prices in general, need to be both high enough for the producer to make a profit and low enough for consumers to afford finished goods made with the energy products. This two-way tug-of-war tends to keep oil prices lower than most economists would expect, and indirectly caps the total amount of oil that can be extracted.
Figure [2] shows that, on an annual average basis, inflation-adjusted Brent oil prices have only exceeded $120 per barrel during the years 2011, 2012 and 2013. On an annual basis, oil prices have not exceeded that level since then. For a while, forecasts of oil prices as high as $300 per barrel in 2014 US dollars were being shown as an outside possibility (Figure 4).
With close to another decade of experience, it has become clear that high oil prices don’t “stick” very well. The economy then slides into recession, or some other adverse event takes place, bringing oil prices back down again. The relatively low maximum to fossil fuel prices tends to lead to a much earlier end to fossil fuel extraction than most analyses of available resource amounts would suggest.
OPEC+ tends to reduce supply because they find prices too low. US drillers of oil from shale formations (tight oil in Figure 4) have been reducing the number of drilling rigs because oil prices are not high enough to justify more investment. Politicians know that voters dislike inflation, so they take actions to hold down fossil fuel prices. All these approaches tend to keep oil prices low, and indirectly put a cap on output.
Why Indications from EROEI Analyses Don’t Work for Electrification of the Economy
[5] Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) analyses were not designed to analyze the situation of a massive scaling up of wind and solar, as some people are now considering. If utilized for this purpose, they provide a far too optimistic an outlook for renewables.
The EROEI calculation compares the energy output of a system to the energy input of the system. A high ratio is good; a low ratio tends to be a problem. As I noted in the introduction, published EROEIs of wind and solar are prepared as if they are to be only a very small part of electricity generation. It is assumed that other types of generation can essentially provide free balancing services for wind and solar, even though doing so will adversely affect their own profitability.
A recent review paper by Murphy et al. seems to indicate that wind and solar have favorable EROEIs compared to those of coal and natural gas, at point of use. I don’t think that these favorable EROEIs really mean very much when it comes to the feasibility of scaling up renewables, for several reasons:
[a] The pricing scheme generally used for wind and solar electricity tends to drive out other forms of electrical generation. In most places where wind and solar are utilized, the output of wind and solar is given priority on the grid, distorting the wholesale prices paid to other providers. When high amounts of wind or solar are available, wind and solar generation are paid the normal wholesale electricity price for electricity, while other electricity providers are given very low or negative wholesale prices. These low prices force other providers to reduce production, making it difficult for them to earn an adequate return on their investments.
This approach is unfair to other electricity providers. It is especially unfair to nuclear because most of its costs are fixed. Furthermore, most plants cannot easily ramp electricity production up and down. A recently opened nuclear plant in Finland (which was 14 years behind plan in opening) is already experiencing problems with negative wholesale electricity rates, and because of this, is reducing its electricity production.
Historical data shows that the combined contribution of wind, solar, and nuclear doesn’t necessarily increase the way that a person might expect if wind and solar are truly adding to electricity production. In Europe, especially, the availability of wind and solar seems to be being used as an excuse to close nuclear power plants. With the pricing scheme utilized, plants generating nuclear energy tend to lose money, encouraging the owners of plants to close them.
The US has been providing subsidies to its nuclear plants to prevent their closing. When one form of electricity gets a subsidy, even the subsidy of going first, other forms of electricity seem to need a subsidy to compete.
[b] Small share of energy supply. Based on Figure 5, the total of wind, solar, and nuclear electricity only provides about 6.1% of the world’s total energy supply. An IEA graph of world energy consumption (Figure 6) doesn’t even show wind and solar electricity separately. Instead, they are part of the thin orange “Other” line at the top of the chart; nuclear is the dark green line above Natural Gas.
Given the tiny share of wind and solar today, ramping them up, or those fuels plus a few others, to replace all other energy supplies seems like it would be an amazingly large stretch. If the economy is, in fact, much like a human in that it cannot substantially reduce energy consumption without collapsing, drastically reducing the quantity of energy consumed by the world economy is not an option if we expect to have an economy remotely like today’s economy.
[c] Farming today requires the use of oil. Transforming farming to an electrical operation would be a huge undertaking. Today’s farm machinery is mostly powered by diesel. Food is transported to market in oil-powered trucks, boats, and airplanes. Herbicides and pesticides used in farming are oil-based products. There is no easy way of converting the energy system used for food production and distribution from oil to electricity.
At a minimum, the entire food production system would need to be modeled. What inventions would be needed to make such a change possible? What materials would be required for the transformation? Where would all these materials come from? How much debt would be required to fund this transformation?
The only thing that the EROEI calculation could claim is that if such a system could be put in place, the amount of fossil fuels used to operate the system might be low. The overwhelming complexity of the necessary transformation has not been modeled, so its energy cost is omitted from the EROEI calculation. This is one way that calculated EROEIs are misleadingly optimistic.
[d] EROEI calculations do not include any energy usage related to the storage of electricity until it is needed. Solar energy is most available during the summer. Thus, the most closely matched use of solar electricity is to power air conditioners during summer. Even in this application, several hours’ worth of battery storage are needed to make the system work properly because air conditioners continue to operate after the sun sets. Also, people who come home from work need to cook dinner for their families, and this takes electricity. Energy costs related to electricity storage are not reflected in the EROEIs shown in published summaries such as those of the Murphy analysis.
A much more important need than air conditioning is the need for heat energy in winter to heat homes and offices. Neither wind nor solar can be counted upon to provide electricity when it is cold outside. One workaround would be to greatly overbuild the system, so that there would be a better chance of the renewable source producing enough electricity when it is needed. Adding several days of storage through batteries would be helpful too. An alternate approach would be to store excess electricity indirectly, by using it to produce a liquid such as hydrogen or methanol. Again, all of this becomes complex. It needs to be tried on small scale, and the real cost of the full system determined.
Both the need to overbuild the system and the need to provide storage are excluded from EROEI calculations. These are yet other ways that EROEI calculations provide an overly optimistic view of the value of wind and solar.
[e] Long distance travel. We use oil products for long distance transport by ship, air, truck, and train. If changes are to be made to use electricity or some sort of “green fuels,” this is another area where the entire change would need to be mapped out for feasibility, including the inventions needed, the materials required, and the debt this change would entail. What timeframe would be required? Would there be any possibility of achieving the transformation by 2050? I doubt it.
The conversion of all transportation to green energy is very much like the needed conversion of the food system from oil to electricity, discussed in [5c], above. Huge complexity is involved, but the energy cost of this added complexity has been excluded from EROEI calculations. This further adds to the misleading nature of EROEI indications for renewables.
[f] A dual system is probably needed. Even if it makes sense to ramp up wind and solar, there still will be a need for many products that are today made with fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are used in paving roads and for making lubrication for machines. Herbicides, insecticides, and pharmaceutical products are often made from fossil fuels. Natural gas is often used to make ammonia fertilizer. Fabrics and building materials are often made using fossil fuels.
Thus, it is almost certain that a dual system would be needed, encompassing both fossil fuels and electricity. There are likely to be inefficiencies in such a dual system. If intermittent renewables such as wind and solar are to be a major part of the economy, this inefficiency needs to be part of any model and needs to be reflected in EROEI calculations.
[g] “Renewable” devices are not themselves recyclable. Instead, they present a waste disposal problem. Solar panels especially present a toxic waste problem. Without much recycling, there is a long term need for minerals of many types to be extracted and transported around the world. These issues are not considered in modeling.
Profitability of Unsubsidized Renewables Is the Best Measure
[6] If renewables are to be truly useful to the system, they need to be so profitable that their profits can be taxed at a high rate. Furthermore, sufficient funds should be left over for reinvestment. The fact that this is not happening is a sign that renewables are not truly helpful to the economy.
Some people talk about the need for “surplus energy” from energy sources to power an economy. I connect this surplus energy with the ability of any energy source to generate income that can be taxed at a fairly high rate. In fact, I gave a talk to the International Society for Biophysical Economics on September 7, 2021, called, To Be Sustainable, Green Energy Must Generate Adequate Taxable Revenue.
The need for surplus energy that can be transferred to the government is closely connected with the debt problem that occurs when oil prices are higher than about $20 per barrel that I noted in Section [1] of this post. Renewable energy must be truly inexpensive, with all storage included, to be helpful to the economy. It must be affordable to citizens, without subsidies. The cost structure must be such that the renewable energy generates so much profit that it can pay high taxes. It is unfortunately clear that today’s renewables are too expensive for the US economy.
EROEI Models Can’t Tell Us as Much as We Would Like
[7] In the real economy, the economy builds up in small pieces, as new approaches prove to be profitable and as all the necessary components prove to be available. EROEI models shortcut this process, but they can easily be misleading.
The concept of Energy Return on Energy Invested has been used for many years in the field of biology. For example, we can compare the energy a fish gets from the food it eats to the energy the fish expends swimming to procure that food. The fish needs to get sufficient energy value from the food it eats to be able to cover the energy expended on the swim, plus a margin for other bodily functions, including reproduction.
Professor Charles Hall (and perhaps others) adapted this concept for use in comparing different energy “extraction” (broadly defined) techniques. More recent researchers have tried to extend the calculation to include energy costs of delivery to the user.
The adaptation of the biological concept of EROEI to the various processes associated with energy extraction works in some respects but not in others. The adaptation clearly works as a tool for teaching diminishing returns. It gives reasonable information for comparing oil wells to each other, or solar panels to other solar panels. But I don’t think that EROEI comparisons across energy types works well at all.
One issue is that there are huge differences in the selling prices of different types of energy. These are ignored in EROEI calculations, making it look feasible to use a high-priced type of energy (such as oil) to produce a low-valued type of output (intermittent electricity from wind turbines or solar panels). If profitability calculations were made instead, without mandates or subsidies (including the subsidy of going first), the extent to which there is a favorable return would become clear.
Another issue is that intermittency of wind and solar adds huge costs to the system, but these are ignored in EROEI calculations. (The situation is somewhat like having workers drop in and leave according to their own schedules, rather than working during the schedule the employer prefers.) In EROEI calculations, the assumption usually made is that the fossil fuel system will provide free balancing services by operating their electricity generation systems in an inefficient manner. In fact, this is the assumption made in the Murphy paper cited previously.
An analysis by Graham Palmer gives some insight regarding the high energy cost of adding battery backup (Figure 7).
In Figure 7, Palmer shows the pattern of energy investment and energy payback for a particular off-grid home in Australia which uses solar panels and battery backup. His zig-zag chart reflects two offsetting impacts:
(a) Energy investment was required at the beginning, both for the solar panels and for the first set of batteries. The solar panels in this analysis last for 30 years, but the batteries only last for 7.5 years. As a result, it is necessary to invest in new batteries, three additional times over the period.
(b) Solar panels only gradually make their payback.
Palmer finds that the system would be in a state of energy deficit (considering only energy out versus energy in) for 20 years. At the end of 30 years, the combined system would return only 1.3 times as much energy as the energy invested in the system. This is an incredibly poor payback! EROEI enthusiasts usually look for a payback of 10 or more. The solar panels in the analysis were close to this target level, at 9.4. But the energy required for the battery backup brought the EROEI down to 1.3.
Palmer’s analysis points out another difficulty with wind and solar: The energy payback is terribly slow. If we burn fossil fuels, the economy gets a payback immediately. If we manufacture wind turbines or solar panels, there is a far longer period of something that might be called, “energy indebtedness.” EROEI calculations conveniently ignore interest charges, again making the situation look better than it really is. The buildup in debt is also ignored.
Thus, even without the issue of scaling up renewables if we are to make a transition to energy system more focused on electricity, EROEI calculations are set up in a way that make intermittent renewable energy look far more feasible than it really is. “Energy Payback Period” is another similar metric, with similar biases.
The fact that these metrics are misleading is difficult to see. Very inexpensive fossil fuels pay back their cost many times over, in terms of societal gain, virtually immediately. Wind turbines and solar panels depend upon the generosity of the fossil fuel system to get any payback at all because intermittent electricity cannot support an economy like today’s economy. Even then, the payback is only available over a period of years.
I am afraid that the only real way of analyzing the feasibility of scaling up electricity using wind and solar is by looking at whether they can be extraordinarily profitable, without subsidies. If so, they can be highly taxed and end our government debt problem. The fact that wind and solar require subsidies and mandates, year after year, should make it clear that they aren’t solutions.
“This site has been reported as unsafe
Hosted by ourfiniteworld.com
Microsoft recommends you don’t continue to this site. It has been reported to Microsoft for containing misleading content that could lead you to lose personal info, financial data and even money.” !!!
Ahia ahiaiai , dear Microsoft, it seems that you report fake news…. 😀
Not this again! We figured out what went wrong when something similar to this happened before, but I have no idea now. What is Microsoft up to???
There was a concern that my links were to unsafe web sites, among other things.
FAILURE TO COWER shall not go unpunished!
All it means is that anyone who opens the link despite the warning … gets a warhead targeted at their coordinates at some point…
Nothing to worry about
Google works, MS not so much.
Dennis L.
Microsoft Defender comes up with a screen saying that the site is unsafe. Supposedly, someone “reported the site as unsafe.”
One issue may be that there is no privacy statement about accepting cookies. The reason why is because Our Finite World doesn’t use cookies. It doesn’t accept advertising. It doesn’t accept donations. Any information a person gives, such as signing up to be on the email list announcing a new post, doesn’t go anywhere else.
There is a way of saying the site is safe, if you click on the red warning screen that Microsoft Defender puts up. It might be helpful if readers clicked on the link to say the site is safe.
I did report as safe, but trying to get to next page of comments brings up same warning.
I got an email saying that Microsoft is investigating my objection. It will take up to two days to do their review. If they find the site safe, they will take the notice off.
If they refuse you will want to tell them most people here are already red pilled… and those who aren’t are not affected by facts and logic … refer them to norm keith mike’s comments
Note: Elites and industrial farmers……my their souls recycle into earthworms
You really would have to be a total MOREON to believe this … what do you think norm?
It says he’s playing pickle ball… whatever the f789 that is… hahahaha
https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-was-jamie-foxx-left-paralyzed-blind-covid-vaccine-1804148
(Rudaw)
General knowledge. For those who are interested about traditional Middle East methods to extract olive oil (in the area we call from historical point of view Mesopotamia).
This is how they do it in Kurdistan, using old methodology, which implies cooperative work.
For those who don’t know, Kurds in most cases are not Muslims, Christians or Jews, but they have a monotheistic religion, called Yazidism.
As you know they’ve been oppressed through the years by various forces.
https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/29032023
Looks like the kinda place where if you were to ask for the phone number of a single woman you’d be clubbed to death?
BBC – Some fish can change their sex, and you can too, said the BBC to children.
https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/48489
Strange. Help eventually reduce the number of young people who can reproduce.
“Spike Protein Is Probably One of the Most Toxic Compounds Human Beings Can Be Exposed to”
The harms of spike protein, per Dr. Paul Marik:
• inflammation
• clotting
• causes autoantibodies
• damages endothelium
• activates genetic pathways, which leads to cancer
Spike Support Formula is the only product on the market containing nattokinase, dandelion root, and a host of other promising ingredients that can help protect you and your families from the prolonged effects of spike proteins.
https://bit.ly/Spike-Support
keith and norm want more hahaha
This actually looks like a good state to be in when UEP is wrapping up… https://t.me/leaklive/14546
Zombiefied on Super Fent!
tommy opposes this https://twitter.com/ScoopUrban/status/1665774318171586561
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/of-theory-and-practice-in-search/
Fast Eddy
just now
Tim does a superb job identifying the issues… but where he falls down is with respect to the outcome.
We have a population of 8 billion — they are fed using resources that are clearly into very deep depletion… and there is nothing that can replace these resources. Fertilizers and pesticides are mad with oil and gas — the machinery that operates farms and transports the food to the 8 billion uses oil and gas…
What does it matter if the people who operate the world use policies related to covid to gain more control of the 8 billion — how does that feed them when the resources hit a tipping point?
We are on the precipice of a total implosion — caused because the global economy is being strangled by a lack of cheap energy:
“I’m sitting here staring in the face at the biggest and probably the broadest asset bubble — forget that I’ve ever seen, but that I’ve ever studied,” Stanley Druckenmiller said at the May 2023 Sohn Investment Conference.
I fail to understand how more control mitigates the outcome. I suspect Tim is buying into the Great Reset PR … there’s even a website for that https://time.com/collection/great-reset/
How does eating bugs, 15 minute cities and driving EVs and promoting ‘renewable’ energy fix the end of cheap energy? Lets throw in some dancing Trannies in the grade 3 classroom for good measure.
This Great Rest is total bullshit.
There can be no soft landing. Physics and math dictate the terms — and they indicate starvation is imminent.
I fail to see how anyone could conclude otherwise… after all — since that first person sowed the first seed this was the guaranteed outcome
We farm so that we can defy die-back… when population growth is threatened — we used our brilliant minds to innovate and grow more… culminating in industrial farming that feeds 8 billion.
I suppose nobody wants to admit that our self-proclaimed genius was a suicide mission — that it was utter stupidity. And that it is – make no mistake.
Nope nobody wants to admit that all the geniuses of history — the innovators… the inventors — were marching us towards the cliff – and extinction.
I never fail to be amused when I watch humans take to the stage at the NY stock exchange … delighted to be listing their companies — ringing the bell — drinking Champagne — and contemplating private jets and super yachts.
The reality is – they are toasting pillage… their toasting the destruction of the planet… the paving over of the planet… of course they are also toasting the depletion of the finite resources that fuel their pillage.
Don’t get me wrong — it’s not as if they had a choice…
Consider Rat Island — it’s a small remote island that has 40-50 rats living there… if the population exceeds 50 some of the rats die…
A ship filled with grain washes up on Rat Island… the rats scurry into the hull… and rejoice!!!
Holy F789 — look at all this food… and that kicks off the mother of all banquets… the other rats join the fray stuffing themselves… dancing whooping celebrating (no bell though…) …. they fornicate like porn stars… thousands of rats are birthed… and they join in …
Now imagine if a single rat approached and suggested this was a huge mistake … he tried to explain that this would end badly… he’d be told to f789 off… and called a party pooper
Are we any smarter than the rats? Nope. In fact we are dumber… they didn’t grow the grain … it just washed up…
We’ve reached the end of the road — just as the thousands of rats would reach the end of their road when the grain runs out.
Guess what the thousands of rats would do when the grain ran out and they were hungry — you got it – they’d eat each other.
We are in the same position – but we are 8 billion.
Tim does not connect Covid to any of this – he does not discuss the injections (which I refer to as Rat Juice… for a reason)
There can be no doubt that the Rat Juice is intended to do great harm https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/bio-shocks-monday-june-5-2023-c-and/
Everyone gets the Rat Juice… celebrities politicians athletes… doctors bankers lawyers … military forces … everyone…
There has to be a reason why.
Consider 8 billion starving very angry humans .. on the streets…
If you run the show — do you allow this — or do you attempt to stop the Gates of Hell opening … by exterminating the 8 billion — before the global economy collapses?
Tim does not want to go there… few do … it’s an awful thought.
Except we really don’t know how things will work out. We can speculate, but that is about it.
Economists talk about an Invisible Hand guiding the economy. The Invisible Hand is really energy together with whatever High Power is guiding our self-organizing system. Somehow, things may come out better than we are expecting.
So very well said!
Ok — I’ll admit … there’s a slight chance that the Rat Juice has been purposed change our DNA so that we urinate petrol (various grades) thereby changing water to energy…
There is a limit to how much urine one can produce hence the 15 minutes cities.
I think it can end two ways:
UEP succeeds — everyone is exterminated without much suffering…
UEP fails — 8 billion rip each other to pieces.
How else can a situation end when the substance that feeds 8 billion — is no longer available.
Tim Morgan just wants to fiddle with his SEEDS system, and then get back to making model boats on his holiday island.
He talks about ‘de-layering’ and ‘simplifying’ of the economy to align with energy realities, without calling it what it is, Collapse; and hopes that those made redundant and bankrupt as discretionary sectors inevitably implode will somehow be ‘looked after’ by governments, and their needs for shelter and food satisfied fairly – just as if it were 1950.
A series of – perhaps perpetual – lock-downs, poisonous pseudo-vaccines for all, and steady withdrawal of food supplies is how the ‘looking after’ bit is taking shape, so we can perhaps forgive him for not looking directly at reality.
Although I read that the ‘Midwestern Doctor’ has much darker views than those she has published, which she doesn’t think it ‘responsible’ to share widely on Substack, so it might possibly be the case that Dr Tim is also self-censoring so as not to be thought a ‘catastrophist’ – I suspect though that he is just in blinkers imposed by fear, or even a lack of imagination – no mass killings being conceivable in Britain,etc.
This is spot on about Tim Morgan. All the talk about delayering and regrowth and so on reeks of a strange sort of solutionism that doesn’t seem to fit at all with what his SEEDS system actually shows. I think it’s unlikely that he is hiding darker views and simply sees the world through liberal rose-tinted glasses.
It reminds me of JMG with his “catabolic collapse” theory that ignores the fact that we kicked out all the rungs on the ladder on the way up to this level of complex civilization.
‘Catabolic collapse’ theory is how JMG calms his own nerves and keeps a readership online and for his books (apart from the interesting esoteric stuff, which can be most informative).
We all cope – and hope- as best we can….
If one acknowledges some sort of UEP outcome … then there’s not much point in continuing to write… the readers fall into despair and drop Super Fent… turning into zombies and dying soon after
Unfortunately the coping many of those you mention, and those like them, always seems to be in their business interests (subscribers, book sales, etc.) … Integrity in the pursuit of truth means ignoring such interests. Gail is an excellent example of this.
Igor promised that he would never ask for $$$ from subscribers…
Then Fast Eddy posted his links on a range of SSs and Igor became famous… and now he accepts $$$.
It amazes me that all these SSers ask for money – some demand $$$ …
Gotta be the first time in history anyone tried to monetize what they believe are their efforts to save the world.
First time anyone tried to save the world without risking life and limb…
The PR Team has done a magnificent job loading all the No Vaxxers onto SS… where they cause zero concern
“…we kicked out all the rungs on the ladder on the way up to this level of complex civilization.”
Which is why, at this very late stage (where bright eyed visions of large physical development still continue), we should perhaps foster a sort of holding ground, where everything feasible is stored for future reference. And, meanwhile, build nothing (other than adaptation and assembly) and demolish nothing as well.
BUILD NOTHING, DEMOLISH NOTHING!
And then there is the fairy tale of A World Made by Hand… Have not read it but I imagine it’s stuffed with hopium BS
You could be talking about these folks. I’m not one of them.
https://mail.aol.com/d/list/referrer=oldMail&folders=1&accountIds=1&listFilter=OLDMAIL/messages/ALzp8tsg1bwZZH_szA8DwMobJ-M
I suspect Midwest understands where this is headed… Naked is piecing it together .. live2fightanother day mentioned that all we are doing now is documenting this out of curiousity — nothing will stop the freight train
Sasha insists energy is not a problem — odd given she also insists the DOD hatched this plan — now why would they target everyone including their soldiers…
One can see why few will go there.. even if they know … this is unthinkable
It would suck if one had children… all those dreams up in smoke
The common denominator of most ideas, Great Reset, Simplifying the Economy, is to squeeze-out people that have no choice. The idea is that when oil production declines there will still be enough for 50% or 25% or 1% of the populace or for NATO or for the BRICSS.
As the economy is interconnected, squeezing-out leads to economic decline, to an end of availability, to an end of finance and to an end of effects of scale, but what is more it leads to an end of very specialized products and services. Noone constructs a smartphone for 50 oilworkers only, writes complex software, maintains an airline, so that specialists can continue work.
Resources ‘hide’ deeper into the ground as they are exploited, the first pieces of coal can be picked by hand, for the second meters chisels are needed, for the next ropes, then tiny railways and lamps, when digging deeper air has to be controlled, communication is needed. Workers can’t walk to their working place down in the mines because it takes too much time. Eventually exploitation stops because production becomes too complex.
A lot of modern tools for energy production rely on products for the mainstream, satellites or transatlantic cables.
As far as I understand, when lower complexity hits the mainstream the specialists and oil producers soon will follow. It would be possible to use ancient technology but the resources that can successfully be produced with ancient technology is already gone.
That’s why I bet on the cliff model.
Now, how steep is this cliff? It depends on the storage they have, and that’s probably different in every area.
If they cannot keep up water supply in the large cities: 3 days. If they have storage of gasoline and grain, they may be able to go longer.
Food production requires to respect the rhythms of nature. Not possible to sow in August and come over the winter. If there is storage enough to wait for the next spring, all gets better.
It does NOT mean extinction of mankind. There are people that go with their cattle or goats to the mountains and survive – if the mainstream lets them… Or they hunt in the Canadian or Russian forests.
Of course there are ways out of the predicament, some we have discussed here. Perhaps not for all 8 bio but for 30%. No need for manslaughter if we reduce reproduction voluntarily in time.
But these ideas have to be tried out before the tipping point and maybe a few tries are needed. Deployment also needs time.
That’s why I see mainstream ideas that are prone to failure counterproductive. It is a mental thing. And one of sloth.
Gail we get it wind and solar don’t work!!! You are preaching to the choir here with all this. Can you please get back tot the fundamentals of oil and gas. Some people claim on here that Oil price has been averaging 80$ and the is plenty for companies to make tons of money. I think that is incorrect but if it is correct then we have another 20 years before anything gets strange. And in that 20 years 95 percent of the people on this site will be dead. Sorry but true! Is that why you don’t tackle this issue? I do wonder if your political emotions are not getting you motivated to do the low hanging fruit dog whistle stories
most “countries” pumping legacy conventional fields are making profits, or they would stop pumping, right?
“they” are not fracking, that’s for sure.
maybe most fields will be toast in 20 years, who cares?
yes, dude, and how old are you?
I’m mid 60s, so I’ve had the great FF ride 1950s into 2023.
US production is now 12.7 million barrels per day.
that’s over 500 million gallons per day.
that’s enough for me!
you?
Nah .. the oil and gas is past tense – we peaked in 2018 and then …. the global economy was about to crash into the sewer … and then … out of nowhere … Covid…
Let’s spend our time trying to figure out 1. what the trigger will be to initiate UEP 2. The exact mechanism that will be used to UEP us 3. posting stories about Vaxxers who are moaning in agony following a booster injury and begging for $$$ for treatment
Perhaps we could have a few articles on effective ball room dancing techniques and how to play a fiddle at the line dance
And before I forget.. regular mockery and taunting of norm mike and keith..
Sound like a good plan?
Yes I knew everyone would like it
” I think that is incorrect but if it is correct then we have another 20 years before anything gets strange. ”
It has also been said here many times that at such relatively low oil prices, there is little new oil being developed. I don’t know what the oil depletion rate at the global level is, seen reports of 3-5%. The UK offshore sector reached 12% (for a few years) at its highest. In any case, high rates of depletion combined with so little being invested in new oil fields means oil production will fall soon, and keep falling, perhaps in a seesaw fashion. Unless we get total collapse, then it will be vertical.
It is vertical now……if you could pull back just a bit and examine the functioning of the global human enterprise….it is obvious that we flatlined for about a decade at the essential peak of global energy production (2008-2018) then we started down in reality based analytics…….fantasy economy started to implode (as predicted)…..covid stopped the economy in vast sections…….now populations are controlled and declining……
Lets see how long the human based Archons can keep the lid on as we approach terminal velocity…..
But we are in freefall right now…….
Whats all that sound?
Its really quite loud?
For lack of better terms lets call it the wind…….
and whats this immense thing approaching me?…….
my its quite large……and it seems to be coming at me very quickly……
Lets give it a name……something large and impressive
I think…….grooo…..grouuuu…..grounnnd…thats it!!
I will call it the GROUND
I wonder if it will be my friend????
(paraphrased of course from Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy…..)
I suspect the true God of this Realm hated Douglas Adams,……for he will escaped the simulacrum
“Global peak oil production may have already happened in October of 2018 (Will covid-19 delay peak oil? Table 1). It is likely the decline rate will be 6%, increasing exponentially by +0.015% a year (see post “Giant oil field decline rates and peak oil”). So, after 16 years remaining oil production will be just 10% of what it was at the peak. “ ?
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/climate-change-dominates-news-coverage-at-expense-of-more-important-existential-issues/
Yes, the oil story is a little different version of this one. I probably should write about it again.
The fact that there are published “reserves” makes people think that there are a lot of resources in the ground that can be cheaply extracted. Venezuela is up near the top with its published reserves. Does anyone think that they can be cheaply extracted?
Above article is more about modelling.
A total switch towards solar and wind requires huge financial and energeric investments. Where shall they come from, when economy and energy declines as it is the case?
Do I get you right, that you insinuate the oil price is so high it should cover the financial surplus needed – plus further investments to extract oil for the next 20 years? If we look to US fracking, that seems not the case, they generated huge deficits.
In my eyes, fossiles have increased carrying capacity and living standards. While we could easily reduce living standards, our ancestors did not live in highly isolated and heated and lighted houses, I don’t see though, how solar and wind could contribute to carrying capacity, compensating fossile decline. The electricity to fuel technology is not very efficient and if we include this in the EROI calculations, they would for sure be negative. Besides I doubt that fertilizers could be made from hydrogen, but I am no expert.
One could argue, that wind and solar one day could subsidize oil production for farming. But I doubt, that is possible.
While fossiles have enlarged and intensified food production and thus carrying capacity, they have restricted arable lands to suited areas. A manual based agriculture could expand the available arable land to areas that are not suited for the current methods. Probably that has been the case in the past. But on overall, before the fossile age, agriculture was only able to feed a fraction of todays population. And they had a working structure, that we have lost today.
Breaking News!!!!!
The Nova Kakhovka Dam has been destroyed in Southern Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks
explain, please.
I know nothing…. Nothing!
But John Paul comments on his Substack:
“Do you remember when I stated, many times, in my Beyond Mathematical Odds series to pay attention to possible tipping points ? Well, this is one of those. I will bring updates on this in a few days, but for now, you should pay attention and prepare. This event has major significance beyond merely changing the dynamics of the conflict.
It has the possibility of affecting one of the nuclear plants, and storage of waste fuel, but my main concern besides the loss of civilian life is… agricultural loss.
By hook or by crook, the West will get their escalation I care to guess.”
There’s a video of a drone overflowing the breached dam here:
https://hiddencomplexity.substack.com/p/the-nova-kakhovka-dam-has-been-destroyed#media-86640b8d-53dd-47e1-af4f-d7a414b5b6c4
and a mighty fine breach it is.
It seems I beat Reuters by an hour on breaking this story and the UK media by two hours. But it seems the dam has finally burst on this story, now the Guardian has gotten hold of it.
The UK ambassador to Ukraine, Dame Melinda Simmons, who thinks blowing up gas pipelines and bridges is just dandy, has retweeted a post calling what has happened at the dam “An appalling act of ecocide by the Russian regime”.
That’s funny! Duncan “Your Own Private” Idaho and George “Moonbat” Monbiot are fond of telling us that building dams is an appalling act of ecocide and blowing them up is an act of “re-wilding” rivers and restoring nature.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/06/russia-ukraine-war-live-dam-near-kherson-blown-up-by-russian-forces-ukrainian-military-says
I’d put depleted uranium ammo in the ‘ecocide’ category.
Hypocritical moral indignation has been very British since at least the reign of Queen Victoria. It’s possible they were also doing it when Stone Henge was erected,but we have no documentation of that.
Try as might, although there is of course nothing like one, I can never make myself take a ‘Dame’ seriously.
Then again, there is also Dame June Raine, genocider-in-chief at the safe and effective MHRA regulators. Perhaps I should revise a prejudice derived from pantomimes?
‘Oh yes you did! (kill them) shouted the audience.
‘Oh no I didn’t!’ replied Dame June, who is also a real-life Widow Twanky, her husband, I see, having kicked the bucket years ago from cancer – a blessed relief for him, no doubt.
Come on man!! We did better than that .. we blew up Iraq hahahahaha.. and Libya… and Syria …The Ghan…. etc
Oh yes of course say the MORE-ONS… they deserved it! Those are different
If the dam supplied electricity to Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, both on territory that is de facto Russian, to find those responsible for the sabotage we only have to ask ourselves cui bono? And these, as in the case of the bombed pipelines, are certainly not the Russians.
I meant that the dam supplies water, not electricity.
This is a link to the wikipedia article about the hydroelectric plant. It apparently was a run of the river hydroelectric plant, separate from the dam. The river was navigable.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhovka_Hydroelectric_Power_Plant
I feel like I’ve pimped out Tim Morgan and Naked Emperor is dry humping him
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/of-theory-and-practice-in-search
I insist that they name their first child Fast Eddy 2.0 in honour of my matchmaking skills.
I’ve dropped some OFW with Naked… he may show up.
yes, in just one article, Morgan blows away 99.9% of everything you’ve ever written.
humbled, you are?
No. All he’s done is identify the problem … which has been done a thousand times on OFW… and elsewhere.
This is the masterpiece https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=220
When you are wailing in despair as the die-off begins… and there is no BAU that night… think of that.
That … is the greatest doomsday article ever penned
I think the article is basically right.
The thing I would point out is that Tim Morgan’s SEEDS model, as far as I know, tends to make the same mistakes as the EROEI model. In other words, it probably tends to give way too much credit to wind and solar. This is how Tim Morgan can assume a slow transition away from fossil fuels.
Of theory and practice
Posted on June 5, 2023
IN SEARCH OF EXPLANATIONS
Even with the best intent, it can be hard for anyone to pause and take an objective look at his own work. For this reason, I’m very grateful to blogger The Naked Emperor (NE) for an article, entitled The Everything Bubble, The End Of Growth & Managing Expectations – A theory to explain everything, which sets out an admirably concise, balanced, accurate and readable summary of my economic thesis.
The bottom line of this thesis is that growth in the material economy of products and services has drawn to a close, and involuntary economic de-growth has begun. The financial system, entirely predicated on the contrary assumption of growth in perpetuity, has become disconnected from economic reality.
I don’t contend that the reversal of prior economic expansion has been any kind of sudden event – on the contrary, we’re witnessing the culmination of a decades-long process in which the economy has moved from deceleration, via stagnation, into contraction. If we haven’t seen this coming, it’s largely because we have had no wish to do so.
If I read the article correctly – and NE is welcome to put me right if I don’t – the inference is that the authorities’ own assessment of the situation runs along similar lines, and that this kind of analysis “convinces politicians to pursue policies which don’t seem to be in the public’s interest”.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2023/06/05/257-of-theory-and-practice/
See my comment:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2023/06/02/models-hide-the-shortcomings-of-wind-and-solar/comment-page-3/#comment-424630
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/jacinda-ardern-awarded-damehood-for
And in other news… Pol Pot was posthumously knighted
Jacinda Ardern awarded damehood for leading New Zealand through Covid
Fast Eddy’s favorite leader!
What they really need so say is this is an award for helping execute UEP in NZ.
Cuz that is what it is.
She’s actually a hero — I admit that — but that donkey face.. Heee Hawwwww…
He’s good .. real good… but he’s not this good https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=220
The bottom line is, they can’t talk about spike without hauling the jabs into the discussion.
So the new narrative that we’re supposed to believe is that covid INFECTION causes cancer and the jabs help prevent that from happening. Don’t buy it. Covid might cause cancer, but if it does, it does to at fractional rates compared to the jabs.
The vaccine trials only observed participants for a couple weeks, and then the drugmakers “unblinded” the studies, making it impossible to compare jabbed versus unjabbed after that.
Assuming the Biochimie study is right, and I think it is, the most charitable view is they were criminally negligent, taking a never-seen-before protein — from what they themselves hysterically labeled a “novel” coronavirus — without knowing what the spike did or what the long-term consequences of having it hanging around in the body would be, and then injected it right into most of the population including pregnant women and children.
And don’t forget the public health establishment’s role in suppressing any dissenting voices and constantly lying to everyone about the beneficial effects of the magic snake oil. That was also criminally negligent, at best.
The less charitable views include crimes against humanity, international prosecutions, and capital punishment after trial.
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/holopharmakon-saturday-may-27-2023
I’ll go with the less charitable view.
And …. BOOM!!!! A crescendo of a million people banging on pots and pans!!!
Now let’s tie it all together. What’s the new narrative they’re pushing?
The Newest Narrative
The German excess deaths study shows us that excess mortality is finally becoming impossible to ignore: it’s been elevated for two consecutive years now, two years during which the miraculous jabs had their chance to do their work but failed, and the link to the vaccines is looking a lot like an obvious candidate for the deaths, as the German researchers properly noticed.
So here is where the narrative makers are trying to pull a quick psyop on us. They need a way to blame the excess deaths on something besides the jabs. It needs to be compelling. It needs to be airtight. It needs to be distracting. So they’ll probably have to use something true.
The hastily approved, quickly peer-reviewed Biochimie study on covid’s oncogenic properties offers covidians a handy-dandy explanation for both the excess deaths and the timing problems. If they can show covid causes cancer — and I believe it can — then they can attribute the excess deaths to the virus. And the lag making the excess deaths LOOK attributable to the vaccines can also be attributed to the lag time required for cancer to develop and be diagnosed — and remember, the hospitals were deferring cancer screenings.
It all makes sense.
But the giveaway is that the Biochimie study never once mentioned the spike protein, instead generically referring to “covid proteins.”
Why obscure the role of spike? It’s literally unbelievable that a highly-accurate, peer-reviewed article like this one, which goes into mind-numbing detail about all the specific genes and microscopic components of the oncogenic EFFECTS of the covid proteins, never actually gets around to any particular specificity about which genetic parts of the “covid proteins” are oncogenic.
It’s like they’re not even curious.
Why not mention the spike? There’s a good reason. BECAUSE THE JABS PRODUCE BILLIONS MORE SPIKE THAN THE VIRUS. Maybe trillions. If the spike protein IS oncogenic, then jabbed people are far more at risk of cancer than are naturally infected people. In an infected person, spike hangs out in the body for around eight days. In a jabbed person, spike is being steadily produced for at least four months, and maybe much longer, especially if people keep getting boosted.
In other words, any elevated cancer risk caused by covid infections only lasts a few days. But elevated cancer risk from the jabs will last for months or even years.
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/holopharmakon-saturday-may-27-2023
This doesn’t sound good!
Hey keith – how does it sound to you????
Are you still standing by your statement that you will take every Covid Booster on offer???
norm … where is norm in all this… norm do I have to visit Huff and drag you back to OFW to give us your worthless two cents?
i booked myself into the eddy detox clinic for a few days
they said i only got there just in time
Unfortunately once you are F789ed there is no unf789ing.
BTW – our munchkin who is in chef school does some hours at a restaurant — one of the chefs had that safe and effective bivalent Rat Juice last month … and he’s now experiencing sharp pain in his chest … the guy is not even 30 yrs old…
He’s been to the emergency and told ‘we can’t find anything wrong’… so he’s ignoring it hoping it will pass… I have provided the contact details of the doctor who helped my hockey mate
I am sure I ready a study out of Israel indicating not a single young healthy person died from Covid…
This is one representation of Germany’s excess death percentages compared to those of the US. (Recent data for the US tends to be missing quite a few reported deaths.)
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&country=DEU~USA&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=false&Interval=Weekly&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false&Metric=Excess+mortality+%28%25%29
This comparison makes the two countries look about equally bad.
NBC tried to blame the problem on greedy drug companies and underpriced drugs. A silly suggestion. It’s obviously increased demand. What would cause increased demand for cancer drugs? Remember Ethical Skeptic’s chart on cancer drug expenditures, which confirms increased usage as well as increased purchases of the more expensive branded options after generics run out.
That’s three sources all confirming unprecedented rates of cancers. But the point isn’t that cancers — especially turbo cancers — are exploding. We already knew that.
The point is: the data is getting undeniable. They can’t keep denying it’s happening and they won’t be able to ignore it much longer.
Also remember the Biochimie study referenced some generic covid “proteins?” It never got around to saying WHICH covid protein has all the oncogenic properties. What do you want to bet the “protein” is Spike?
That’s my bet. And I’ll explain why they probably obscured that fact in a minute.
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/holopharmakon-saturday-may-27-2023
YES!!! Makes sense … I adore this logic…
A few days ago, at the Third Annual European Union International COVID Summit, Dr. Cole reported (again) on all the anecdotal clinical evidence showing skyrocketing rates of “unexpected” neoplasms. At one point he asked the medical attendees to raise their hands if they were experiencing unparalleled rates of new cancer diagnoses in their practices. Dr. Cole said half the audience raised their hands.
If anything, Ethical’s neoplasms chart seems to understate the case, perhaps because reliable data is so hard to get these days.
Next, confirming both Dr. Cole and Ethical Skeptic, there have been a raft of headlines about cancer drug shortages published just within the last few months. Here’s one from ten days ago in the New York Times:
NBC said the shortages were record-setting:
According to a March report from the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, drug shortages are at record highs.
It’s not just one company, or one drug. It’s across the board, and all at the same time:
As of Wednesday, the Food and Drug Administration listed 14 cancer drugs in shortage… “I don’t know of a time that’s worse than this,” said Dr. Julie Gralow, the chief medical officer and executive vice president of the American Society of Clinical Oncology. “What’s different about this shortage is, I think, it’s just the broad applicability of these drugs, how important they are[.]”
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/holopharmakon-saturday-may-27-2023
You know who closely follows malignant neoplasms? Ethical Skeptic. He’s been reporting on the latest neoplasm figures every couple weeks for years. Ethical consistently reports a steady increase in neoplasms since a few months following the rollout of the jabs — except for a few types of cancer that have helpfully remained flat, allowing us to rule out “deferred treatment” as the cause for the types of increasing cancers.
In other words, if the cause was deferred screenings, then we’d expect to see ALL types of cancer increasing. Not just certain types.
One of Ethical’s most compelling charts exposes the rapid increase in spending on medical treatments for “neoplasms” (cancer) since the jabs were introduced to the population:
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/holopharmakon-saturday-may-27-2023
Two new studies published this week on the same day. The Biochimie study described three separate, complex systems by which the covid proteins could promote cancer growth. The Cureus study described massive excess deaths in Germany in 2021-22, and suggested an astounding possible reason for them.
Both studies are peer-reviewed. Both studies are lengthy and highly-footnoted. Both studies were very carefully written. Both are remarkable.
But one of the studies is a limited hangout, a psyop that gives us a little bit of new, truthful information, information intended to distract us from the horrifying implications of the other study.
Today’s roundup dives deep into both remarkable studies, so we can nip this new narrative psyop right in the bud light.
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/holopharmakon-saturday-may-27-2023
Thought experiment:
Two bottles are connected by a metal tube. It is airtight and a complete vacuum, except for 10 gaseous atoms. The atoms bounce around and occasionally find their way between the bottles at random.
Is there some fraction of the time during which all 10 atoms are in one bottle? Is this not a reversion of entropy? What if the number is 100 atoms? What about Avagadro’s number of atoms?
Entropy is a measure of probability between states, but aren’t stochastic reversals also possible? Doesn’t that mean that over a long enough time period (longer than the known history of earth and the universe), the low-probability events that we deem low-entropy must occur?
Yes, it’s just a question of time. Or no. Sooner or later low-probability low-entropy events will occur. A team of monkeys tapping on typewriters will one day knock out the complete works of Jeffrey Archer. But due to the immense statistical improbability, probably much much much much later. So much later that the Universe may not be around to accommodate it.
no, the math says that the monkeys will type out an infinite number of books of gibberish before they duplicate a novel.
that infinite number of books takes how long to type?
feel free to disagree, friend.
That’s basically what I said.
Have you read any of Jeffrey Archer’s “novels”?
“Here’s a way of clearing the mind every morning. For 45 minutes, limber up for the day’s work by writing down the whatever pointless gibberish happens to drift into your mind. It is said that many of Jeffrey Archer’s short stories have been created in this way.”
https://terenceblacker.com/on-the-tricks-of-the-trade/
who knew?
not me.
if i write down eddy’s rantings—will that get me the ignoble prize for literature?
I sat next to Jeffrey Archer’s wife on the London train once, Tim: I am not, alas, able to confirm that she was indeed ‘fragrant’ as the judge in the case so ludicrously observed.
My sympathies were with the prostitute.
Judges, they don’t get out much, I fear. Just imagine what the wife of a judge must look like: probably worse than the wives of genetic scientists – but they at least can now try to modify them, one supposes……
Further Cambridge news: the Bill Gates Scholar Centre refurbishment is going ahead wonderfully. Lots of money being splashed about on those researching bat viruses and and ‘new systems of surveillance’ – yes, those are indeed being funded by Mr Gates in this very town, Mordor-on-theCam.
We shall have to wait for Aragorn to show up and save us, or maybe King Arthur will have to break off his long sleep – 1500 years has been quite enough……
I had Mary Archer in my car earlier this year. She was friendly enough, but I wouldn’t have known who she was if one of her travelling companions (Greg Dyke) hadn’t told me who we were going to pick up. I’m impressed that you could recognise her.
I am always amazed by the drive such people have when I look at their CVs. They have just done so many different things. It’s hard for me to understand their motivation, as I’m quite content to lead a quiet life and remain a nobody.
It’s a small world! Isn’t it amazing that two OFW regulars have both had the pleasure of encountering Baroness Archer of Weston-super-Mare DBE. I’m sure CTG would cite this as evidence we live in a simulation.
LOL. In my case, it’s just that I drive for the largest and most repectable (allegedly) private hire company in York. Many large organisations that might require a car in York have accounts with us.
The first time I took Greg Dyke he was about to miss his train and got out and ran off without paying. Ironic that maybe the richest person I’ve ever taken “did a runner”. I didn’t even realise this until I cashed up at the end of the day. I simply assumed his job was on an account as, I hope, did he. I got the money the next day off the company that had been looking after him, in any case.
The two famous people I was happiest to get in my car are Paul Merton and Ronnie O’Sullivan.
Any Instagram Super Models?
Tom, it is impossible to prove that you are not in a simulation… perhaps J Archer is “the” monkey after all. Hsve you seen him personally before? You know? Who knows?
Almost finished this https://www.audible.com/pd/In-the-Realm-of-Hungry-Ghosts-Audiobook/B07HQV24CP great book.
Addiction often starts with episodes in childhood.. that result in later life addictions .. some are addicted to fame … some to money… some drugs… some shopping…
Seems to be addiction drives the world…
“I am always amazed by the drive such people have when I look at their CVs.”
There is a reason. If you want to dig into it, look up “Genetically capitalist.” What happened is that for hundreds of years in the UK and other places the children of the wealthy survived at twice the rate of the children of the poor.
The selection for the psychological traits that lead to wealth was as intense as that applied to the tame Russian foxes.
The survival difference ended about 1800, but the effects of this selection continue to this day.
I once sat in a hospital waiting room next to Maggie Smith
And once shared a ferry across the Thames with Nicholas Farrell
Plus another real claim to fame which I will not share on OFW
does that make me famous?
You Brokeback Mountained with David Attenborough?
“Maggie Smith”
My wife is a fan. Maggie had one of the best lines in the Harry Potter movies, where she animates the gargoyles and mutters, “I always wanted to do that.”
okay let’s call each bottle 10% of the total space, and so the tube is 80%.
choosing the left bottle for my example, each atom will be there randomly 10% of the time, = 0.1
two atoms therefore will be there 1% of the time, ie 0.1 x 0.1 = 0.01
so all ten will be there 0.0000000001 of the time.
a ten billionth of the time if I’m reading that right?
now, there are “only” about 32,000,000 seconds in a year.
so in 1,000 years there are 32 billion seconds.
so in the span of 1,000 years, the 10 atoms would be together in the left bottle for 3.2 seconds.
but!
good news!
they would be together in the right bottle for 3.2 seconds also!
100 atoms surely would take much longer than the age of the universe to ever be together in the same bottle?
Yes, but as far as we know, time is infinite and the probability of reversal, however small, is not zero. So in less than infinite time, a highly ordered system will exist whose re-disordering can be enjoyed by whoever is around then.
Something for the universe to look forward to 🙂
gravity always creates order out of disorder.
get back to me on that thought.
It tries,…….and most of it is located in another dimensional plane altogether…….
People should start thinking about that a lot more.
Yes, all ten atoms will be in one of the bottles 2% (2/10^2) of the time. Once you have large numbers of atoms the math becomes more complicated because the interaction between the atoms themselves becomes important. For a mole of nitrogen the probability will be a lot less than 2/N_A^2.
he postulated a connecting metal tube of undetermined size.
I created an example where the tube was 80% of the total volume.
Then you have to take into account the world outside of the bottle. Does a shadow fall upon the tube or does a ray of sunlight warm it? Is there some sort of rain or wind chill? Is the bottle on Earth, Mars, Jupiter, the Sun? Etc.
Whether your 10 atoms all end up in one bottle or not, they are realistically interacting in some way with all the other atoms in the universe. It then becomes an issue of FRAMING, imo.
I did poorly at school in some respects because I didn’t find the assumptions compelling. Is there ever a “Perfect Temperature and Pressure”? Does infinity exist? (I’m not necessarily convinced of it.) The concept of infinity makes a lot of equations work out neatly. Without infinity (and without zero), the picture is more cloudy.
I left out magnetism… are these atoms of iron or what?
Gravity. Are there tidal forces?
What is the state of the atoms? Solid Lead? Helium? Wouldn’t this matter as to how readily they would move about?
I guess you’re not big on abstraction!?
I don’t see the usefulness of relying upon them, necessarily.
I pretty much guarantee this experiment can never be carried out, as the bottles and tubes themselves (along with human reasoning) will fail long before anyone could collect any definitive data.
Ha ha… yes, that was a pretty silly guarantee.
Not really. At room temperature the mean free path of a nitrogen molecule is microns. Once the pressure is similar to the atmospheric pressure the molecules will spend most of the time hitting each other instead of the walls. Unless you consider micron sized bottles.
Yes, but the point I was trying to make is that if the probability is non-zero, however small, an ordered state will eventually appear. Entropy reversal. Entropy describes the statistically favored states, but is not a law unto itself, insofar as I understand anything.
There are no states at all other than energetic ones. Even the atoms in the bottles are simply waveforms behaving in statistically measurable ways……but simply observing this changes things……
and the illusion continues….
None of this is real people.
when your fluctuations are of order 10^{-12}, due to statistics, it is pretty much a law. Most things can not be measured to one part in a trillion, certainly not anything involving mass.
I still see this as a matter of framing. You choose to say all atoms in one of two bottles = “order”, when that distribution is (all else being equal, and uninterfered atoms frictionlessly mobile) equally probable to all other possible distributions.
The atoms don’t know they’re in a bottle, or a tube. Only you know that, is what I am trying to get at.
Yes, the manner in which all possible states are subdivided into groups of interest is key to the measure and definition of entropy. The folded and unfolded states of proteins provide an example. Two unfolded states may differ, but we often group them as one simply because they are both non-functional.
ivanislav, how about doing this:
Take a mental snapshot of your bottles and tube with the ten atoms all in one bottle. Now imagine an interior wall dividing your tubes and bottles, vertically and at an angle determined by the position and diameter of the tube. Some, none, or all of the ten atoms may now be housed in this new conceptual division, despite nothing at all changing in the “real” world of your experiment.
“Yes, but the point I was trying to make is that if the probability is non-zero, however small, an ordered state will eventually appear. Entropy reversal.”
the point I was trying to make is that this is what gravity does.
entropy reversal. Gravity takes matter (which = energy) and brings it closer together, which adds order to the Universe, such as gathering “cosmic dust” into a large enough sphere to create a star, thus taking diffuse mass (= energy) and making it so dense that it produces concentrated (solar) energy.
which of course then diffuses all over again over the course of millions/billions of years.
gravity also “sorts” matter by its density.
early Earth pre-organic or organic molecules weren’t just randomly spread over this globe.
if water was present, the molecules would rise to the surface or sink depending on whether or not their density was greater or lesser than H2O.
so gravity has been “sorting” and “ordering” molecules from day one of the existence of the Earth.
that’s one of the coolest ideas ever.
But this is still done in a way that entropy increases, although matter becomes more ordered. Because entropy is the disorder of the whole process. Photons will be radiated when molten iron sinks in molten silicon and will go all over the universe.
This SS brings me great joy… you too can experience Great Joy as you follow along:
An explosive new development in the world of covid mRNA vaccines began rapidly spreading this weekend. It’s got some scientists saying we should completely halt all mRNA technologies, in humans and veterinary uses, not just for covid, but any mRNA jab, including the new, warp-speed approved ones for RSV and influenza.
“For this first time in the history of mankind, people have been injected … with packaged DNA, and … it will certainly have entered the cells of the poor recipients.”
— Vaccinologist Sukharit Bahti, 2023
Then they hoover out the RNA juice, encase it in trillions of lipid nanoprotein fat sacks in a completely different process, squirt it into vials, and ship it to your doctor. Job well done. (so this is how they make the Rat Juice!!!)
Any transfected cell expressing spike protein is identified as an “alien cell,” and the immune system immediately targets that cell for destruction. So an mRNA shot creates a kind of foot race between the LNP delivery packages and a person’s immune system. As the LNP delivery trucks — which the immune system thinks are just innocuous fat while they are driving around — as they race around the body infecting cells, which then start making spike, the immune system follows close behind, killing the transfected self-cells as fast as it can find them.
That’s why Pfizer put so many trillions of mRNA delivery pods in the shots. They’re trying to outrace the immune system by overwhelming it.
🦠 Dr. Bahti described the mRNA packages in the shots as “seeds for autoimmune attack.” As an example, he illustrated the problem in a diagram of the super-smooth inner lining of a blood vessel, a lining called the endothelium. The lining of blood vessels must be super smooth to avoid clotting, and normally it IS perfectly smooth, miraculously smooth.
Read all of it 🙂 https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/bio-shocks-monday-june-5-2023-c-and/
Surely he does not believe this is some kinda mistake hahaha…
They’ve got the MORE-ONS in the Kill Box … now they watch the data from the global economy with an itchy trigger finger.
Dia-f789ing-bolical!!!
Hahaha https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/48466
Apparently the Tranny sets up shop Out Back the School Dumpster… and the children are offered up to them…
Mass D
Here in the UK the Labour Party who will probably win the next general election, have pledged to ban all new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea,
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/06/05/the-madness-of-labours-oil-and-gas-ban/
We’re doomed.
I am afraid that there isn’t much oil or gas that is not already being extracted left in the North Sea around Scotland. Maybe the Labor Party is telling drillers to save their money.
I always wanted a private jet and a super yacht …. but M Fast banned them.
How convenient …
Exactly. The reason Labour came up with this policy is because they know there is damn all oil and gas left.
The UK offshore industry celebrated its 50 th anniversary a few years ago. What are the chances they missed anything worth extracting?
Thanks for the new post, Gail. I’m over here in the choir, but in several months time I’ll be spending some time with an “informed authority” and as a very old friend will ask him beforehand to look over this blog post to assess cogency, for discussions when we meet. May I please reiterate that my ongoing gratitude to you for this cashew haven is unlimited.
@ mirror – Still chewing over your comments last month on the Nietzsche lecture. Thx for the posts.
Apropos of nothing other than I thought, perhaps wrongly, this may interest you et al
Early Indians: The story of our ancestors and where we came Tony Joseph Juggernaut books, New Delhi. 2018
“Recent excavations at a village called Keezhadi near Madurai in Tamil Nadu is thought to confirm the previously postulated relationship between the Harappan civilisation and the ancient Dravidians civilization of South India. Keezhadi excavations show that it was that an urban civilization with remarkable resemblances to the IVC. Moreover, potsherds with Tamil-Brahmi script discovered at the site are very similar to the Harrapan script. Carbon dating of material obtained from the deepest layers have been dated to the 6th century BCE. ”
Harappan civilisation (also called the Indus Valley Civilisation, IVC). Full review (very worthwhile for those interested) here:
colombotelegraph.com/index.php/who-were-the-early-sri-lankans/
We are exceeding most of Earth’s limits -NATURE
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01064-1
“Our concept of ESJ assumes fair sharing of responsibilities among different actors, ensuring that those who are most responsible and capable do the most. For example, the Earth Commission has developed principles for sharing responsibilities for cities and companies37. We can also build upon other internation-ally agreed approaches to allocation which include the equitable and optimal utilization of water included in the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention, fair access and benefit sharing in the biodiversity domain, and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in responding to climate change. Access needs cannot be met without revisiting current market allocation mecha-nisms: the price of scarce resources keeps going up due to increasing demand from the rich, making them unaffordable to the poor.”
(free)
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368972762_Earth_system_justice_needed_to_identify_and_live_within_Earth_system_boundaries
Earth is ‘really quite sick now’ and in danger zone in nearly all ecological ways, study says -AP
https://apnews.com/article/earth-environment-climate-change-nature-sick-2dded06915af4645253f5c29abff4794
All the earth needs to do is get rid of humans, and it can evolve in a different way! There will be a different climax species, perhaps in different parts of the earth.
Could it be that Hoolio will assume that role? Kinda like he’s the new Adam… he’s contemplating choosing an Eve
The Great Corn-Hoolio!
“The study by the international scientist group Earth Commission published in Wednesday’s journal Nature”
It seems difficult to believe that a science journal would publish an article with statements like “Earth is ‘really quite sick now’ and in danger zone in nearly all ecological ways”, which sounds like something out of a kids book.
“It’s not a terminal diagnosis… ‘But we are moving in the wrong direction'”
Those are just silly statements, and one can only hope that Nature has not lowered itself to that gibberish.
The planet changes all the time, it aims at nothing, there are no ‘wrong’ outcomes, and it is completely irrelevant what some/ any persons ‘hope’ for.
I will send Nature a stern rebuke and threaten to cancel my imaginary subscription if they allow _any_ nonsense statements like that.
That is a good way of putting the issues with the Nature article. It fits in with Green thinking, not much more.
> UKR summer offensive starts, kind of. Belgium wants answers. Macron master of lies. Poland Protest.
The Ukraine offensive got repelled quite quickly. The media of the West is downplaying this. Russia said that the assault began on Sunday morning, but it was repelled. Russia claims 250 Ukrainian soldiers and 16 tanks were lost in eight hours.
Ukraine got 250 tanks from the collective West. How many tanks will they lose if they keep the offensive up for a couple of weeks?
Polish mercenaries have been bragging about attacking inside of Russia. Looked like a PR stunt more than a military event. Trying to provide a distraction and reason to move troops in a different direction. Russia is ignoring these incursions. It is focusing on the counteroffensive.
Belgian government says that they didn’t intend that the weapons they sent end up in the hands of the Nazi group they did. The group was part of the Ukraine troops, so that is where they went.
Estonian prime minister said that Estonia was not given a choice of getting into NATO. Estonia said that they had been told that NATO was a peaceful group, but that Russia was very aggressive. Estonia had no choice but to join NATO. Long list of countries that NATO group has attacked.
Now different people want to be the next Secretary General of NATO. Affects what people say.
Poland is labeling Macron “the master of lies,” showing him shaking hands with Putin.
Best way to get back to “normal” is by winding fighting in Ukraine down.
I just assumed most of what is on the news… is fake.
The fact that Putin does not starve the EU of energy … makes me very suspicious of this Ukey thing
It’s not that you should own nothing, but that nothing should own you.”
— Ali ibn abi Talib
All of the “stuff” people own require constant upkeep. Some of the things purchased are purchased with debt, and the repayment of debt is a constant obligation.
Even investments tend to require upkeep. What should I own? What will have adequate value in the future?
People have tended to think that their own value is somewhat tied to what they own. Perhaps they can gain status by having more stuff. But most of the other folks looking for status are on the same same treadmill.
People who are happiest are ones who are happy with what they have, assuming that their basic needs are covered (food, water, clothing, and shelter of some kind). They also need friends and reasonable health.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fx3mYmCXoAEWfG-?format=jpg&name=900×900
Last paragraph: Amish.
We are hierarchal, got to wonder if the chap plowing with 8 horsepower is the leader of the pack.
Those around me smile, wave and move at a very human pace, clop, clop, clop with their buggies. All businesses advertising plants for sale have a prominent sign on Sunday, “Closed.”
In La Crosse, in my youth, stores were closed on Sunday. KMart came and changed that, such is progress. God gave us a day of rest, secular humanism gave us “freedom” to shop on Sundays.
Dennis L.
Charles Hugh Smith has a good article:
What Happens When the Competent Opt Out?
By this terminal stage, the competent have been driven out, quit or burned out.
He talks about all of the make work and silly requirements that most jobs have now. He gives a chart, which he calls the Lifecycle of Bureaucracy. It show how these requirements are a small share of the total at first, but then get to be the overwhelming part of them.
https://www.oftwominds.com/photos10/lifecycle-bureaucracy.png
Is it the 80/20 problem? Politics is getting people to believe, influence others. Actors are an example and are current news presenters and politicians – Reagan anyone? Eisenhower was a very good President, his only shortcoming: no hair, JFK and TV ended that.
80/20 seems to be a rule of the universe and it is a problem for society as it becomes more and more complex.
Extreme example, sass your ground crew and an F-15 pilot may well find something “falls off” at a very inconvenient time. Ground crew needs to be one of the 20% at a minimum; that is not an easy social problem.
Dennis L.
The WSJ has an article pointing out what will bring a quick end to putting more renewable electricity onto the US electric grid, among other problems:
The Other Green-Energy Grid Crisis
A lack of transformers has led to a housing shortage, frequent power outages, and dependence on China.
I left out a lot. The lack of replacement transformers together with a huge number of aging transformers means that grids will need a lot of transformers to replace failing old transformers. Trying to replace these transformers will be a huge problem in itself. There is no way that the US grid can expand to meet growing demand. Other countries around the world are also looking to add transformers, as they hope to add green energy. This exacerbates the problem. China is the main supplier.
Thanks for another excellent article, Gail. I hope you are staying cheerful despite the ever-darkening horizon!
I suggest our only hope now is to start an Electric Cargo Cult: members will construct from junk, papier-mache, etc, and paint – then dance around chanting – models of transformers, Teslas, wind-turbines, electric jets, vaccine factories, electric farm tractors and trucks.
Then the glorious, planet-saving, Clean Green Future may finally come true, despite all the nay-sayers pointing out all those little technical difficulties!
It does get worrying, I agree. You have to live in a bubble in your own part of academia, to miss what is happening.
If enough people actually really made the attempt to “cargo cult” this reality through Psychic means you might be surprised at the results.
Of course simulacrum protocols will not be over ridden and the reset will occur as scheduled.
The green new deal is a cargo cult of electricity. It is not based on calculations on engineering it is based on celebrities and politicians say it is good.
I don’t have the reference, but Xcel asked for an increase in electrical rates and was turned down; the increase was in part for EV charging stations. This was in Star Tribune. Xcel apparently said it would not invest in renewables to the extent envisioned.
MN wants to go carbon free; it is going to be a challenge.
Dennis L.
This kind of thing is exactly what a person might expect. The charging stations are for a relatively small group of owners of electricity powered cars. These auto owners tend to be richer than average. They have also gotten big subsidies for buying them. Now the rest of those buying electricity are being asked to pay for their charging structure. I can understand why they would say “No.” It is not clear that there would even be electricity to power these stations. Also, are these electric cars being charged for road upkeep, the way other vehicles are in their fuel prices? If not, this is another subsidy for the EV owners.
The situation isn’t all that different from solar panels on roofs. Buyers have gotten big subsidies for buying them. Owners are typically more wealthy than average electricity purchasers. When it comes to the intermittent electricity, it is of very little benefit to the grid, but the compensation the solar panel buyers can be as high as “net metering” –in other words, reduction of the electricity bill equal to the retail value of the electricity. This is very unfair to other electricity purchasers. The poor electricity purchasers end up subsidizing the rich ones.
Our neighbour recently installed a new under floor heating system – heat pump driven.
They had to add another phase of electricity to the house – costing $5000+
I wonder what would be required to charge an EV … no doubt upgrades to supply … and if the neighbours all bought EVs the supply for the area would need to be upgraded — I wonder what that would cost?
And where the electricity would come from… I suppose more coal plants
This Wikipedia article lists power plants in New Zealand. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_New_Zealand
It doesn’t look to me as if there is much electricity from coal. There are some burning natural gas and some burning diesel fuel (usually very expensive for this purpose). Lots of hydro, wind, solar. There is a chart showing capacity, but capacity doesn’t mean much when you are dealing with intermittent renewables. Even water flow can vary a lot with the time of year.
“Problems begin though, if unit costs rise above people’s ability to pay. When this happens, those on the lowest incomes either self-disconnect or are forcibly disconnected if they default on their bills. Of course, this happened to some extent even when the economy was booming and electricity was cheap. But in the years since the 2008 crash, a much bigger mass of people disconnected or were cut off.
The problem for the energy companies is that the cost of running the system continues to grow even if the income from consumers has fallen. A temporary response, as we saw in the UK last winter, is for government to step in and subsidise the energy companies by paying a proportion of people’s bills. But at £38 billion for just five month’s support, this is politically unsustainable so long as the companies continue to operate on a for-profit basis. And so, the alternatives are some combination of cutting the cost of operating the system, and passing at least some of the additional cost onto consumers – which risks even more consumers cutting back or self-disconnecting, along with more costly court actions to disconnect those who default.”?
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2023/05/23/welcome-to-the-internet-death-spiral/?fbclid=IwAR2X3rs1PnUSf09PR6bxlJo5LA3IBCHTZI8IBrtAueB_KrCw-tkle-TebtY
We really have a vulnerability with this and I hope the federal government is on top of the situation with a plan to expand production. Not only do we need to replace and add to our deployed transformer plant (and other related equipment like circuit breakers, fuse fixtures, and switchgear) but we need to export as well, especially to our friends in Ukraine whose civilian infrastructure is being targeted.
Yes – more money for this guy!!!
The “American” way of life was advertised around the world, which was wrong.
The American way of life was only possible because when it was promoted USA could basically use the resources of the entire world, save the East Bloc, for virtually free.
It is not manageable for those who don’t have continents to exploit . USA had an entire continent, South America, to exploit without impunity. Gonzalo Lira, son of a Chilean magnate, studied in Dartmouth, just like basically every elite in the south of the border.
Other countries didn’t have that kind of luxury but they all tried to live like Americans (the James Dean type in Rebel without a Cause, which showed even teens coming from ordinary backgrounds had cars to crash to the cliff, when other countries had auto ownership of less than 10-20%)
And now it is coming down, crashing like James Dean’s final drive.
The Victory of the East is now imminent, since the West has no juice.
USSR in 1970s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ivHHAqzMG8
The world is going back to this
i’m thinking more like this:
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdn7EF5Ch3g?list=PLILjwVewul9GZwBdgmJPZ_m96jO1L390N&w=895&h=498%5D
2nd attempt at that embed code:
https://www.youtube.com/embed/wdn7EF5Ch3g
last go!
https://www.youtube.com/embed/wdn7EF5Ch3g?version=3&rel=1&showsearch=0&showinfo=1&iv_load_policy=1&fs=1&hl=en-US&autohide=2&wmode=transparent
lurker, all three work for me.
Ed, all I see is the link on all 3 posts, rather than an embedded video. oh well. it’s a fun series, anyway, while life was certainly harder in 1620, i suspect it was a lot more meaningful for most people, too.
A project restoring a 17th century farm is being described. The 17th century isn’t all that long ago. Presumably, the climate isn’t all that different. The Little Ice Age is described in Wikipedia as
So it is probably warmer, and thus more amenable to farming, now that it was back then.
I like to contemplate on alternate history and my favorite timeline is a TL with the Great War progressing in such way that Henry Oswald Moseley, instead of being killed by the Turks (total Nobel Prize – 1 (in Literature)) , lives and receives the Nobel Prize, while Srinivasa Ramanujan is found with the back of his head missing, ruled a suicide , which basically ends students from India entering Europe (similar incidents occur to keep the Chinese out as well).
The cold truth is that people outside Western Civilization have NO stake on today’s world. They do know it and don’t really contribute much for tech advances since they know it won’t be theirs.
So it was wrong to allow them into discussion.
When people from non-Western culture began to be influential in tech, that basically meant people who didn’t give a crap about human progress took over. They never progressed an inch during the millennia their civilizations existed ; the only cultural influx they had was Alexander the Great’s intrusion in late 4th century BCE before modern days. (The Hindus were so impressed by the Macedon conqurer that they named the god Skand after him. Iskander in Arab culture and Idaten in Japan are variations of Skand.)
Most people here are non-farmers and they don’t understand the farmer mind. I will tell you a story.
The Nobel Laureate Oe Kenzaburo grew up in a mountain town in Ehime, a backwater region, with a large family. Not much is known about his childhood other than what he wrote, but it appears things were not great , especially during WW2 when he grew up.
In 1958 he wrote a story called “Nip the buds, Shoot the kids’. I believe there is an English translation somewhere. Long story short, the unnamed protagonist is one of the 15 boys evacuated in the last days of World War 2, and at the end the farmers who were sheltering the boys decided to make an example of him. With no supplies provided, he is given 12 hours in the nighttime to escape from the mountain town, or else. The story ends with his fate undecided.
The head of the town, probably the town’s largest landowner (probably modeled after Oe’s father, who did have the wherewithal to educate the author) , is a farmer and he tells the boy that the farmer’s job is to weed out malicious plants, like the boy, and nip such buds before they grow up.
A farmer’s job is like fighting a war, against the elements, the bugs, the weeds, etc. And, in Japan, farmers often fought as guerillas. A common source of income for farmers was hunting down samurais who were defeated in a battle, and killing the warrior and stealing their armor and swords. There was no mercy whatsoever, which is even now why those who are in big cities are so afraid to venture to out of way. I am sure Tim knows much more about this than me. Similar practices were done to sailos who were shipwrecked; the villagers simply killed any survivors and stole their goods.
Such is the farmer mind. Which is why landowners have no mercy on poorer people; they are no more than weeds to be rooted out. Something non-landowners will never understand, and something which was drilled to my ears from when I could speak.
There is always a selection of people (or plants or animals), be it consciously or unconsciously. While I oppose against radical measures – it destroys the conditio humana – and while I doubt that money has anything to do with talent, I am afraid the selection processes currently in society do not favour the talented and those ‘that can do’. That leads to less inventions, less creativity, bad political and economical management, unecessary measures, and in the end to less benefits for the society.
I know quite a lot of people that have shown stunning intelligence and superb artistic, managerial, social or technical talents – but have, as you say in Austrian German, ‘thrown the hat onto it’, meaning to give up in anger, and dedicate their energy and lifetime to something they are personally interested in – with zero use for society. They say they are not willing to waste their energies to survive within the structure.
To me ‘good qualities’ mean responsibility and a clear focus; it might also mean to protect the talented from the untalented. Looking to Habsburg, a lot of them were aware of that and thus brought forward their province and the world.
Knowledge is traded in structures or systems. The more compex structures become the more they favour the conformist, mediocre and servile characters. They obey willingly and swagger with their mediocre talents and wealth. The innovators, explorers and pathfinders are considered a danger and get expelled.
When systems change the conformist have nothing to offer as their knowledge is not anymore useful. Their habits and overrated egos do not allow them to subdue under what is necessary and take over the responsibilities of their times. Call it moral decay!
I think that’s why complex societies crash so bitterly. They don’t manage to turn off in time. Turchin has shown that expressively on some examples.
Nice summary, thanks.
Dennis L.
GW may be over, so expect GC to make a comeback.
“Overall, the Antarctic ice shelf area has grown by 5305 km2 since 2009,”
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/2059/2023/
Flip the lie on it’s head and what do you get?
https://wide-awake-media.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/TemperaturePrecedesCarbonDioxide.mp4
regarding mRNA in food, a copy/paste from JMG’s blog:
Chinese researchers have developed a new oral Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) “vaccine” for cows that causes the animals to produce mRNA poisons right in their milk. Citing claims that covid is still allegedly presenting “numerous challenges to global health,” the Chinese scientists came up with a new way to vaccinate people via the food supply. Their paper explains that the oral mRNA vaccine is based on “bovine milk-derived exosomes,” or milk-exos, that encode the SARS-CoV-2 receptor-derived binding domain (RBD) as an immunogen. “These results indicated that bovine milk-derived exosome-based mRNA vaccine could serve as a new strategy for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection,” the study abstract explains.
https://wholecows.com/food-vax-study-confirms-development-of-oral-mrna-vaccine-thats-produced-in-cows-milk/
On Jan. 31, 2022, MIT News published a piece revealing that RNA vaccines “deliver therapies” for gastrointestinal disease straight through the stomach and intestines. This would imply that the drugs distribute into the body, including in muscle tissue.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-04-09-mit-rna-vaccines-absorbed-stomach-intestines-meat-animals.html
Oral SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine based on bovine milk-derived exosomes can stimulate neutralizing antibodies in mice. Meanwhile, it also can work as a new oral delivery system for mRNA.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.19.517879v1
it seems that to sure you’re not eating mRNA, a vegan diet, or at least veggie with no dairy, is the safest option, aside from DIY meat supply like rabbits or chickens.
This doesn’t sound good at all. Humans don’t thrive as well on a vegan diet. It seems to be missing at least a few things that are needed. Quite a bit of the world eats dairy products. US, Northern Europe, and India especially eat dairy.
If dairy is omitted, something else needs to be added to diets. We are short on fish from the ocean. “Farmed fish” aren’t necessarily a good substitute for those from the ocean.
something like half of my weekly shop is dairy, so this is something i find quite concerning. we’re going to see if we can find a local farm to source milk/cheese/yogurt from and ask directly about what injections they give the cows. i live quite rurally, and my partner teaches at a local agricultural college, so hopefully this won’t be impossible.
And here’s yet another key to the puzzle.
The late Professor Albert Bartlett talking about the exponential function, yoghurt, population growth and how we can get it down to zero. (10 minutes) Nature is going to do this for us anyway by one means or another, but as a species we have the option of collectively choosing the method if we desire from a list that includes abstention, contraception, abortion, infanticide, war (good God, y’all!), disease, famine, neglect, etc.
One more video for those who one to stay on the leading edge, surfing the big wave, and being state of the art and up to date with the latest must-know information about Covid and all that.
This is over an hour long but well worth it IMHO. Dr. Rob Rennebolm, a pediatrician and a paediatric rheumatologist, an unofficially an immune system ecologist, explains Geert Vanden Bosche’s ideas and concerns about not mass jabbing during a pandemic.
Dr. Rob says at the outset that it is important to view our immune systems, both our individual immune systems and or collective immune systems, both in humans and in non-human species, as precious complex ecosystems.
If you have been trying to follow Geert’s ideas and arguments but found it difficult to wrap your head around them, you should Dr. Bob’s presentation very helpful. It could be titled “Geert Venden Bosche for Dummies.”
Also, if you are a virus skeptic and you still want to consider Geert’s ideas and arguments, you need to suspend your disbelief at least temporarily and embrace the idea that there really is a novel coronavirus, enter into the spirit of the thing, and have fun.
https://rumble.com/v2rn40k-respecting-the-immune-ecosystem.html
One doesn’t suspend disbelief. Disbelief is already a suspension.
Having fun is knowing you’re being lied to but going an along for the ride. It’s called Legerdemain.
Norman Fenton has given us a short interview with Heiko Schoening on how covid was planned. Looks like a promotion video for Heiko’s book, in which he names names.
According to Norman’s post: Heiko Schoening (a German medical doctor) was arrested at Hyde Park London in Sept 2020 for talking about what he claimed was the planned origins of covid. Norman Fenton caught up with Heiko at a meeting in Bath, 4 June 2023 when he returned to the UK to attend the World Council for Health BetterWays Conference in Bath. Heiko told Norman that the reason given for his arrest was that he participated in a public event with more than 30 people and hence was in ‘breach of covid regulations’ – for which there was supposed to be a £100 fine. But Heiko was taken to a police station and held in solitary confinement for many hours. His mobile phone and computer were confiscated and never returned. Despite it being quite a major event at the time, it seems impossible to find much information about it on the internet by googling. All videos about it seem to have been removed; not just those on YouTube but all others also. What you can find is a formal question from David Kurton to the London Mayor on the London Assembly website which the Mayor Sadiq Khan would not answer as it was ‘an ongoing investigation.’
https://rumble.com/v2s1x4i-heiko-schoening-interviewed-by-norman-fenton-how-covid-was-planned.html
Let’s assume he was directly over the target and dropping the bombs
This is for Fast Eddy or those who have telegram.
According to Sasha Latypova (if I’m not wrong you posted in the past something from her) Pfizer and Moderna tested three different formulations at the same time on people with three level of toxicity (without informing those who have been involved).
In other words not an experimental jab, but three experiments on citizens at the same time !
Fantastic.
I don’t have telegram and the video is too big to be visible for those who are out of telegram, maybe you have a way to transform it in another video format?
I hope it is interesting.
From the strictly legal point of view, if that is true, there are 2 formulations which have not be formally approved by CDC…
This could be an argument for lawyers…..
https://t.me/dentrolanotizia/3106
I can only read Italian — no speaky … so don’t understand that
thanks for feedback
‘“For centuries, the ivory towers of academia have echoed this sentiment of multitudinous ends and limited means. In this supremely contrarian book, Tupy and Pooley overturn the tables in the temple of conventional thinking. They deploy rigorous and original data and analysis to proclaim a gospel of abundance. Economics―and ultimately, politics―will be enduringly transformed.” ―George Gilder, author of Life after Google:
The Fall of Big Data and the Rise of the Blockchain Economy
Generations of people have been taught that population growth makes resources scarcer. In 2021, for example, one widely publicized report argued, “The world’s rapidly growing population is consuming the planet’s natural resources at an alarming rate . . . the world currently needs 1.6 Earths to satisfy the demand for natural resources . . . [a figure that] could rise to 2 planets by 2030.” But is that true?
After analyzing the prices of hundreds of commodities, goods, and services spanning two centuries, Marian Tupy and Gale Pooley found that resources became more abundant as the population grew. That was especially true when they looked at “time prices,” which represent the length of time that people must work to buy something.
To their surprise, the authors also found that resource abundance increased faster than the population―a relationship that they call “superabundance.” On average, every additional human being created more value than he or she consumed. This relationship between population growth and abundance is deeply counterintuitive, yet it is true.
Why? More people produce more ideas, which lead to more inventions. People then test those inventions in the marketplace to separate the useful from the useless. At the end of that process of discovery, people are left with innovations that overcome shortages, spur economic growth, and raise standards of living.
But large populations are not enough to sustain superabundance―just think of the poverty in China and India before their respective economic reforms. To innovate, people must be allowed to think, speak, publish, associate, and disagree. They must be allowed to save, invest, trade, and profit. In a word, they must be free.’ ?
https://www.amazon.com/Superabundance-Population-Innovation-Flourishing-Infinitely/dp/1952223393
short sighted, blinders on clap trap……
This just Julian Simmons fecal matter revisited.
Added complexity and added debt can help the economy grow for a while, but they, too, reach limits. So the effect that the author of Superabundance writes about is temporary. There are diminishing returns to added complexity. Debt bubbles pop.
Anyone who does not concur… is mentally ill https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/79449
Enjoy https://sagehana.substack.com/p/never-can-get-to-the-one
“It was all laid out in 2013”
A very nice compendium. Short and sharp. With Sasha, Trump, Rachel Maddow and a versatile supporting cast.
If we call pray to the God of Rat Juice will Rachel eventually get a vax injury?
Please God of Rat Juice .. take Rachel next.
She is a foul beast
An 18 minute video that I will look at, when I have a chance.
How about this ends with a giant cage match Trumpers vs Bideners… that would be excellent https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/48435
Mass D https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/48444
And the Bill for your EV repair is…. https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/79435
New Zealand airline is asking passengers to weigh in before their flights
https://www.telegraphherald.com/news/business/article_ab7b4729-f3ef-5204-b219-79f2359336e2.html
Not all passengers, just the big ones, like bags!
🙂
The obese needs to pay more
The obese need to be shackled and put to work in a potato field.
I am on day 3 of a fast and I spent the day swimming across 7 foot deep beaver ponds to set traps for the industrious buggers…..they flood everything constantly here.
I am probably mildly hallucinating from the physical efforts combined with no calories other than a couple beer (yeah, I know its cheating but it was 33 C here today with humidity off the charts),….point being……screw the fat bastards, screw the entitled rich, in fact screw everyone not willing to entertain the concept that this world is not what we think it is……
There, that felt good…..time to meditate and call the Archons into this realm……those buggers need to answer some rather pointed questions.
I too fast, and I too have beaver problems. They constantly drop trees on my fence, and then the cows escape to greener pastures and come back 2 days later. But once my steers are ready I will just eat the steers, and fast maybe once a year.
I caught a granddaddy beaver last night….missing chunks of tail, presumably in combat with an otter, timber wolf or bear. I swear the increased CO2 is driving stupendous plant growth…..when the diesel runs out, my area will revert to near jungle conditions it appears…..
I ate last night…..bison stir fry with cabbage and onions. I will fast again for two days and then eat the legs and back straps of this old codger…..
Pretty sure he never took a covid shot.
Nice to hear others can identify with parts of my life….not many out there anymore
It sounds very appealing … but do you have a harem?
The obese need to be shackled and put to work in a potato field.
YES!!! I’d also recommend buggy whips to ensure they put in a proper effort
hahahaha .. it’s not his money that was lost on this .. it’s the Ministry of Truth budget… he’s just the front man
And he’s playing most people hahaha
Elon Musk: “It Was Still the Right Move to Acquire Twitter, Even at the Outrageously High Price”
“Pretty much all of the social media companies and the search companies were acting in unison. So, where do you find the truth if everyone is in lockstep with a lie?”
Retweet: https://twitter.com/VigilantFox/status/1665502871318609922?s=20
You start your own social media company. It is just software and capital.
Eh, network effects matter.
hahahaha
Interestingly, a market research study found 10% of the population was self-directed (meaning to sell them things, you had to justify the product on its merits), while 90% were not and bought products based on being repeatedly told to buy them. I was shown this study years ago, and I believe MIT or Harvard conducted it, but I could never find it.
https://amidwesterndoctor.substack.com/p/what-made-doctors-do-the-right-thing
I’ve read through this … and he’s nowhere near woke… he still believes POTUS is a thing… that Tucker and Elon are not Deep State minions etc…
Since I was very young, I noticed a minority of people “got it” and could see through the current lie everyone else was falling for. Being like this can be incredibly isolating, so I tried to seek these people out and connect them. As time went forward, the question we all asked was, “What makes certain people be awake?”
Note: “Awake” was the best word we could ever find to describe this characteristic. This is somewhat frustrating because it is still not the correct word and because “awake” is also used by countless spiritual groups to gratify the participants and nothing more.
From looking into this question, we concluded depending on how strict the criteria you used, between 1-10% of the population was “awake.”
https://amidwesterndoctor.substack.com/p/what-made-doctors-do-the-right-thing/
WOW – doomies – imagine what happens when the mob shows up — demands food – you tell them sorry folks – we only got a bit.. and it’s for us…
https://rumble.com/embed/v2p6cgw/
Wait we are saved!!!
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/ExxonMobil-New-Fracking-Technology-Can-Double-Oil-Output.html
We can hope. A tiny band aid on a world problem.
Sam, Mr Shellman at OSB has a rebuttal to this . The real oil man ,
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/forumstuff/forum-stuff/and-the-lies-they-just-keep-on-a-commin?origin=notification
SS at POB does some analysis . Real money .
” The article is a summary of two articles. The ExxonMobil article in Bloomberg is totally devoid of specifics. So it tells me nothing. It isn’t about refracs, I don’t think.
The JPT article discusses two types of refracs. A bullhead frac, which I assume uses no new casing, and a frac that does use new casing.
The bullhead frac costs $1.5 million /-. But no discussion on what to expect in the way of production response.
The frac with a new liner costs $4 million /-. With this frac EUR could be as high as 170k BOE. I think BOE, I’m not clear if this is BO, or BOE, which is very important.
One thing I caught. Standard casing used on these wells is 5 1/2”, “because the operators didn’t intend on using liners for refrac at the time.” Therefore special 3 1/2” or 4” casing is being manufactured to use in these.
I wish I knew how much that casing costs. I’m sure it’s higher than a kite. I know a little bit about specialized tubing. The lined stuff we use in injection wells is 2 3/8” and costs $14 per foot. 1 1/2” we have used to slim hole injection wells costs about the same. I have heard new 4 1/2” casing costs over $40 per foot. That is why nobody is drilling in our field. The one drilling rig left based in our county is currently stacked. It sits right across the blacktop from our North tool house.
Do just a little math folks. .75 x $75 per barrel x 170k barrels is $9.6 million rounded. I assume that 170k EUR is over 30 years. I’m giving the benefit of the doubt this is all oil.
Who here would invest $4 million up front to return $9.6 million over 30 years? Before LOE of course. And before production taxes of course.
We are paying $6.06 per foot for used gas storage 2 3/8” tubing. The price has finally stabilized, a little over double what we were paying pre-2021. Doing anything now in our field, other than just trying to keep stuff running is cost prohibitive.
Refrac’s might make sense at WTI over $125 sustained? $150?
I’m with Mike. He’s on the ground in EFS. This refrac stuff appears to be fluff.
from the article:
” HIGH-PRESSURE BLAST to increase output for a fraction of the cost of finishing a new well: shale well refracturing.
Refracturing is an operation designed to RESTIMULATE a well after an initial period of production, and can restore well productivity to near original or even higher rates of production as well as extend the productive life of a well. Re-fracking can be something of a booster shot for producers–a quick increase in output for a fraction of the cost of developing a new well.”
This video just to make a laugh, but not too much…