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There are many myths about energy and the economy. In this post I explore the situation surrounding some of these myths. My analysis strongly suggests that the transition to a new Green Economy is not progressing as well as hoped. Green energy planners have missed the point that our physics-based economy favors low-cost producers. In fact, the US and EU may not be far from an economic downturn because subsidized green approaches are not truly low-cost.
[1] The Chinese people have long believed that the safest place to store savings is in empty condominium apartments, but this approach is no longer working.
The focus on ownership of condominium homes is beginning to unwind, with huge repercussions for the Chinese economy. In March, new home prices in China declined by 2.2%, compared to a year earlier. Property sales fell by 20.5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period a year ago, and new construction starts measured by floor area fell by 27.8%. Overall property investment in China fell by 9.5% in the first quarter of 2024. No one is expecting a fast rebound. The Chinese seem to be shifting their workforce from construction to manufacturing, but this creates different issues for the world economy, which I describe in Section [6].
[2] We have been told that Electric Vehicles (EVs) are the way of the future, but the rate of growth is slowing.
In the US, the rate of growth was only 3.3% in the first quarter of 2024, compared to 47% one year ago. Tesla has made headlines, saying that it is laying off 10% of its staff. It also recently reported that it is delaying deliveries of its cybertruck. A big issue is the high prices of EVs; another is the lack of charging infrastructure. If EV sales are to truly expand, they will need both lower prices and much better charging infrastructure.
[3] Many people have assumed that home solar panel sales would rise forever, but now US home solar panel sales are shrinking.
A forecast made by the trade group Solar Energy Industries Association and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie indicates that US solar panel installations by homeowners are expected to fall by 13% in 2024. There are many issues involved: higher interest rates, less generous subsidies to homeowners, not enough grid capacity for new generation, and too much overproduction of electricity by solar panels in the spring and fall, when heating and air conditioning demand is low. The overproduction issue is particularly acute in California.
For each individual 24-hour day, the timing of solar energy production does not match up well with when it is needed. With sufficient batteries, solar electricity produced in the morning can help run air conditioners in the evening. But storage from summer to winter is still not feasible, and batteries for short-term storage are expensive.
[4] It is a myth that wind and solar truly add to electricity supplies for the US and the countries in the EU. Instead, their pricing seems to lead to tighter electricity supplies.
Strangely enough, in the US and the EU, when wind and solar are added to the electric grid, electricity supplies seem to get tighter. For example, one article says, Most of US electric grid faces risk of resource shortfall through 2027, NERC [regulatory group] says.
Charts of electricity supply per capita show an unusual trend when wind and solar are added. Figure 1 shows that, in the US, once wind and solar are added, total electricity generation per capita falls, rather than rises!
The EU, using a somewhat shorter history period, shows a similar pattern of declining total electricity generation per capita, even when wind and solar are added (Figure 2).
I believe that the strange pricing systems used for wind and solar in the US and EU are driving out other electricity suppliers, especially nuclear. With this system, intermittent electricity enjoys the subsidy of going first at the regular wholesale market rate. Other providers find themselves with very low or negative wholesale rates in the spring and fall of the year and on weekends and holidays. As a result, their overall return falls too low. Nuclear is particularly affected because it requires a huge, fixed investment, and it cannot be ramped up and down easily.
Besides the foregoing issues affecting the supply of electricity generated, there are also factors affecting the demand for electricity. Electricity generation using wind and solar tends to be high priced when all costs are included. The US and EU are already high-cost areas for businesses to operate. High electricity rates further add to the impetus to move manufacturing and other industry to lower-cost countries if businesses desire to be competitive in the world market.
On a world basis, in 2022, wind and solar added about 13% to total world electricity generation (Figure 3).
Figure 3. Electricity generation per capita for the World based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, prepared by the Energy Institute. Amounts are through 2022.
Based on Figure 3, with the addition of wind and solar, the upward slope of the world per capita electricity generation has been able to remain pretty much constant from 1985 to 2022, at about 1.6% per year. But the US and the EU, as high-cost producers of goods and services, haven’t been able to participate in this per capita growth of electricity.
Instead, China has been a major beneficiary of the shift of manufacturing overseas from the US and EU. It has been able to rapidly increase its electricity supply per capita, even with wind and solar. It has also been adding both nuclear and coal-fired electricity generation capacity.
Thus, this analysis produces the result a person would expect if the physics of the world economy favors efficient (low-cost) producers.
[5] It is a myth that the US and EU can greatly ramp up the use of EVs or greatly increase the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) without relying on fossil fuels.
Both EV production and AI are heavy users of electricity supply. We have seen that the US and the EU no longer have growing per-capita electricity supplies. Ramping up electricity generation would require a long lead time (10 years or more), a major increase in fossil fuel consumption, and an increase in electricity transmission lines.
The State of Georgia, in the United States, is already running into this issue, with planned data centers (related to AI) and EV manufacturing plants. The state plans to add new gas-fired electricity generation. It will also import more electricity from Mississippi Power, where the retirement of a coal-fired plant is being delayed to provide the necessary additional electricity. Eventually, more solar panels are planned, as well.
[6] It is a myth that the world economy can continue as usual, whatever happens to energy supply and growing debt. China’s homebuilding problems could, in theory, lead to debt bubbles crashing around the world.
The world economy depends upon a growing bubble of debt. It also depends on an ever-increasing supply of goods and services. In fact, the two are closely interrelated. As long as a growing supply of low-priced energy of the types used by built infrastructure is available, the economy tends to sail along.
China, with problems in its property business, is an example of what can go wrong when energy supplies (coal in China) become expensive, as supply becomes increasingly constrained. Figure 5 shows that China’s per-capita coal supply became constrained in about 2013. China’s per capita coal extraction had been rising, but then it dipped. This made it more difficult for builders to construct the homes planned for would-be homeowners. This is part of what got home builders in China into financial difficulty.
Finally, in 2022, China was able to get coal production up. But the way this was done was through very high coal prices (Figure 6). (The prices shown are for Australian coal, but Chinese coal prices seem to be similar.)
Building concrete homes at such high coal prices would have resulted in new homes that were far too expensive for most Chinese citizens to afford. If builders were not already in difficulty from low supply, adding high coal prices, as well, would be a second blow. Furthermore, all the workers formerly engaged in home building needed new places to earn a living; the current approach seems to be to move many of these workers to manufacturing, so that the popping of the home building bubble will have less of an impact on the overall economy of China.
There is now concern that China is ramping up its manufacturing, particularly for exports, at a time when China’s jobs in the property sector are disappearing. The problem, however, is that ramping up exports of manufactured goods creates a new bubble. This huge added supply of manufactured goods can only be sold at low prices. This new low-priced competition seems likely to lead to manufacturers, around the world, obtaining too-low prices for their manufactured products.
If other economies around the world are forced to compete with even lower-cost goods from China, it could have an adverse impact on manufacturing around the world. With low prices, manufacturers are likely to lay off workers, or give them excessively low wages. If wages and prices are inadequate, debt bubbles in other parts of the world are likely to collapse. This will happen because many borrowers will become unable to repay their debt. This is the reason that we have been hearing a great deal recently about raising tariffs on Chinese exports.
[7] The world’s biggest myth is that the world economy can continue to grow forever.
I have pointed out previously that based on physics considerations, economies cannot be expected to be permanent structures. Economies and humans are both self-organizing systems that grow. Humans get their energy from food. Economies are powered by the types of energy products that our built infrastructure uses. Neither can grow forever. Neither can get along without energy products of the right types, in the right quantities.
We become so accustomed to the narratives we hear that we tend to assume that what we are told must be right. These narratives could be based on wishful thinking, or on inadequate models, or on a sour grapes view that says, “We don’t want fossil fuels anyhow.” We know that humans need food, and that economies will continue to require fossil fuels. We can’t make wind turbines or solar panels without fossil fuels. What do we plan to do for energy without fossil fuels?
In a finite world, economies cannot continue forever. We don’t know precisely what will go wrong or when it will go wrong, but we can get a hint from the recent failures of myths that our economy may change dramatically in the not-too-distant future.
SF has a 6 minute video out on nuclear power in Germany.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_aVaMbf8Dg
Fast summary, may not be completely accurate, but close enough:
1. Safety concerns were over blown secondary in part to lies told parliament.
2. Installed capacity of solar in Germany is not production capacity, two graphs shown.
3. The one(?) remaining plant is running on existing fuel rods, new ones were not purchased, one year lead time, implies power output is degrading.
4. Of course, they are a bit short on natural gas, seems a pipeline went bust.
My summary: To run our societies we had narratives which had withstood the test of time, modified, reinterpreted but basically the same. We call these narratives religion, we believe because it more or less worked. Perfect, Nope.
Modern man, especially in the west, read US elites, got ahead of their skies. Everything has and is being changed at once; less and less works. We are at base biology and we need narratives to ameliorate the cruelty of nature. The elites are doubling down on their mistakes, facing reality is too much for them.
The universe has 27B years in humans, something will be changed, failed narratives abandoned. TINA.
Dennis L.
This is not something I had thought about:
“The elites are doubling down on their mistakes, facing reality is too much for them.”
This perhaps should be part of any interpretation of what is happening.
That is because that is the only way they know about how to deal with problems. Their entire arsenal of professors, experts, etc know no better.
Applied physics, AKA zombie science, is based upon the belief that doing more of the same will bring more results. It is essentially learning by rote, something the Asians excel.
The elites and the experts have no solutions. Some people want to not believe it, but the world will progress whether they believe or not.
I looked at the video. The video says that there seems to have been a deliberate lie told to parliament about safety. Parliament was told to shut nuclear down because of safety concerns.
One issue I am aware of is that allowing wind and solar to go first drives out nuclear. If this is fixed, wind and solar will fail. Perhaps this a big issue. This by itself could be a problem for nuclear.
I might point out building new nuclear isn’t necessarily a great choice.
For one thing, properly processed uranium is required for the lifetime of the plant. It is not clear that this will be available. International trade, especially with Russia, will be required.
Also, easily mined uranium in proper concentrations is in limited supply. We are dealing with diminishing supplies of uranium, almost as much as we are diminishing supplies of fossil fuels. In theory, we can reprocess uranium, but this requires specially built plants. Reprocessing also requires using lots of fossil fuels.
Building new nuclear power plants requires lots of concrete and steel. These can only made with fossil fuels, particularly coal. Much of this would likely need to be purchased from (probably unfriendly) foreign suppliers. Building these plants will add CO2 to the atmosphere. Its effect in the atmosphere will last 300 years.
See here for an analysis of the steel and concrete needed to build different powerplants.
http://fhr.nuc.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/05-001-A_Material_input.pdf
Per unit of electricity generated, light water reactors consume about one third as much steel as a coal powerplant and one-fifteenth as much as a wind farm. The same is true for concrete, given that most steel in powerplants is used in reinforced concrete. In terms of power produced per tonne of materials invested, nuclear power is beaten only by natural gas. And I bet fuel supply wasn’t factored into the calcs for NG.
Uranium resource issues may be a trickier problem if we see a mass buildout of nuclear. People talk about building fast reactors and closing the fuel cycle. But there are other options to fast reactors. Boiling water reactors can be designed to achieve higher conversion ratios. This is a technically easier option than fast neutron reactors. It is unlikely that they will breed more fuel than they consume. But a suitably adapted BWR with a conversion ratio of 0.8, could reduce uranium consumption per unit power by 80%. Of course, this would require a reprocessing plant and the fabrication of MOX or nitride based fuels. That adds to operating cost, but fuel costs are small part of generating cost for a NPP.
I haven’t looked at your reference yet, but nuclear tends to greatly outlast wind, and also solar. It is the long-lasting condition that makes investment work well. But it also makes the initial investment high, as measured in dollars. Nuclear investment is hard to do if an organization needs to borrow a huge amount of money in advance, especially at a high interest rate.
Georgia (where I live) has been in the news recently because its new nuclear power plant finally came online, after many years of waiting. The reason that this power plant could be financed was because Georgia is a state that uses utility organization for its electricity generation. The utilities can borrow large amounts. They can also charge prospective users of this electricity (like me) in advance for these services.
Tom Murphy, a physics professor who writes the blog “Do the Math” has a calculation of inputs as well.
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/02/inexhaustible-flows/
Murphy calculates the material needs for various forms of energy production. He omits nuclear. Wind and solar come out very badly, at least in part because of their low capacity factors.
You say,
Building a reprocessing plant and operating it is difficult in a country lacking an industrial base. Fuel is essential, whether the cost is low or not. Sometimes there are hurdles that cannot be overcome.
The universe is not aware of human existence, just like a homeowner is not aware of termites until the house looks shaky.
It has not invested anything on humans, and something will be changed but not to your liking.
It already showed that the independence of Czechia and the unification of Serb people were more important than the creme of cream of global civilization back in 1914.
(Al Arabya)
H5N1 is spreading also outside the US…
“A World Health Organization official said on Tuesday there was a risk of H5N1 bird flu virus spreading to cows in other countries beyond the United States through migratory birds.
US officials are seeking to verify the safety of milk and meat after confirming the H5N1 virus in 34 dairy cattle herds in nine states since late March, and in one person in Texas.”
This virus is a good candidate to become the new pandemic or the new epidemic.
It offers the fantastic advantage of promoting the reduction of red meat consumption, the creation of a new ‘miracle therapy’ and a new reduction travelling people (saving diesel and mainly jet fuel, same kind of fuels coming from the same typology of Oil)
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2024/04/30/risk-of-h5n1-bird-flu-virus-spreading-to-cows-outside-us-says-who
And cows might fly…
We seem to have lots of folks hoping for a new pandemic. Allows more debt and more control by government officials.
Hilarious how 4 years after the covid operation most here still believe in pandemics and vaccines and the pseudo-science of virology.
Unfortunately this comment box got stuck in March 2020, lost its grip on reality and is now brain-dead, always circling around the same topics, in a foolish exercise of tunnel vision, and refusing to consider new data and dig deeper. Such a shame.
Powerful stuff.
What a scumbag.
The title of this video is nonsense clickbait. Nowhere did they make a valid argument that Tesla could go bankrupt in 3 years. A British accent doesn’t make one smart (these days I’d argue it’s a liability).
Tesla did 7.5 billion in profit last quarter alone. Valued at ~600B versus Toyota at ~370B with 8.5 billion in profit last quarter. So what! They have a premium because they are deemed a growth company. Make what you want of that; maybe they won’t grow and the premium shouldn’t exist, but they’re not going under unless something happens like litigation over FSD failures and non-delivery. That won’t happen, because “the system” wants autonomous driving and no pesky truckers. Everything Elon drives at (Boring Company, Neuralink, Tesla FSD, Tesla Optimus, AI) is towards the WEF transhumanist agenda.
The author of the video is a Physics professor in New York. (from the UK originally)
I do think the title is click baitish. But it’s not some bold claim. Tesla is one of the most shorted stocks on the market.
End of the video shows a straight line through stock prices in the last few years. Price hits zero in 3 years. This is where the “bankrupt in 3 years” comes from.
Musk sells false hope is the message of the video. I only listened to parts of it. At some point, the false hope collapses. People in need of inexpensive, reliable transportation will need to buy cars, and these will not be suitable.
Kulm raises an interesting and valid point: resources have been distributed in a manner that enabled massive population growth, resource extraction, and removed most selective pressure on human lineages. This has sacrificed further scientific and technological development and the current level of civilization, or at least put it at severe risk (as we don’t know with absolute certainty what comes next).
Obviously, advantages accrue to the tribe that is most willing and able to extract and consume resources. What I wonder is whether any strategy can succeed that prioritizes tech development and human development/evolution, while limiting population and consumption, without being overrun by those who choose a consume-everything-now strategy. The answer to this determines whether the current path was preordained versus a choice.
I imagine that a nation that selectively bred for intelligence (historically) and used genetic methods (since the genetics revolution) might have been able to dominate and break through the current stagnation in physics and technology. This, then, would indicate that human stagnation has been the result of choices not made in terms of culture and national protocols. It would be a rigid and oppressive society by today’s standards, but if it could succeed where we have failed, would it be worth it?
Interesting observation–purpose of all of the current changes is to develop an economy based on increased specialization and technology, rather than the fossil fuels that we don’t have. Also, foster genetic changes in this direction.
The big problem is diminishing returns to added complexity. Also, increased complexity seems to increase total energy consumption, at least up to a point. And increased complexity is very fragile. Transmission lines easily go down; they can’t be repaired without fossil fuels. Increased wage disparity allows the few at the top to try to control the actions of those below, but it isn’t very sustainable. At some point, the people below rebel. They are needed to produce food, water and other basics. Not enough provision is made for defense from outside. Attacks even by Houthi Rebels succeed against a country that claims hegemony.
You still have to deal with the problem of a society’s success insulating the society and especially the elites from negative feedback. Sure the scientific method can help but if the society and/or the elites don’t suffer negative consequences for bad or wrong decisions that they make, they keep making bad decisions and the once useful ideas they had turn septic and undermine the initial success of that society.
If you want to maintain the Mandate of Heaven you must remain grounded …. but how do you ensure that happens?
This argues that the system of government/organization is crucial. I think we all recognize that. My take is that an alternative system might maintain some form of meritocracy or criteria to generate a wide pool of potential officials and then use a random rotating subset of those officials for governance. The key is to prevent people from self-selecting themselves for government office. Rather, government should be an obligation that everyone engages in for, say, 5% or 10% of their working years. In other words, a strategy for preventing the development of an “elite”.
That could help with problem of the delusions of the elite but you still have the delusions of the society.
For example our society’s pro growth delusion.
With less surplus energy, we need to have significantly less government.
I am afraid that we still need to have specialization. Even “Witch doctors” were pretty specialized. Or early “Judges.” I am not sure that you can have people drop in and out of roles. It takes special skills for certain jobs. Even the job of teaching children requires some training and practice.
“Even the job of teaching children requires some training and practice.”
I don’t agree with you, Gail. If you want to specialize in something, you don’t need a teacher. You need someone who already knows. We don’t need teachers. We’ve been indoctrinated to believe that teachers are necessary. That’s just not true. They didn’t exist until 150 years ago.
I will admit that my father taught me reading, before I entered school. Actuarial training doesn’t require teachers. (There is a syllabus of things to read, but it is much more like an apprenticeship program.)
“The key is to prevent people from self-selecting themselves for government office. Rather, government should be an obligation that everyone engages in for, say, 5% or 10% of their working years. In other words, a strategy for preventing the development of an “elite”.
I’ve been thinking about it for some time. If we really want a government or an organization, this may be the best solution. But it can only work on a small scale. We won’t be seeing it any time soon.
“If you want to maintain the Mandate of Heaven you must remain grounded”
This is a good point. Thinking about what will really work and profitability is important, too.
The feudal Japanese had a very elaborate solution – one could consume according to rank, and if someone consumed more than what was allowed , the penalty was severe.
Nikolai Nekrasov, the Bob Dylan of Russia back then, wrote a poem about the building of the Petersburg-Moscow railroad. The workers were NOT paid, and they were used to build a railroad where they were NOT allowed to ride. The first rail cars only had First and Second classes, those having to ride third class need not apply.
Air travel was like that too. It was only reserved for the very rich.
USA has been the worst culprit on encouraging mass consumption. That is because of its ideal of egalitarianism, and if ranks and caste return such excesses could be reduced significantly.
All make believe .
https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/the-feds-game-of-make-believe-comes-to-an-end-150768/
And make believe in the US oil reserves data .
https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/forum-stuff/energy-inaccuracy-agency-us-reserves-for-2022?origin=notification
Yes all make believe. We dont even need big badda boom anymore. We have the real small who sits. Every one pocket full of Posey. Except the special folk well we just change their what it’s so no pocket full of posey for them. It’s all because we thunk it like wizard of oz. Not everyone likes oz but they will come around.
Will earthquakes hasten the demise of shale oil ? How come this was not reported elsewhere ?
https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/forum-stuff/meanwhile-over-in-loving-county?origin=notification
Waiting for water spouts ?
https://b8310e57-9df8-4006-ab00-d54b7ee7d5b9.usrfiles.com/ugd/b98b5a_8d9fb71e8bce4465bcb5526192ffe6a3
This is an article from two days ago from the WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/in-americas-biggest-oil-field-the-ground-is-swelling-and-buckling-9d66eb42
These big oil fields are swelling and buckling because the drillers are re-injecting huge amounts of water, deep underground, below the water table. Besides causing swelling and buckling, the extra water can cause earthquakes, which in turn makes local residents upset. The swelling and buckling can cause problems for roads and other infrastructure.
These problems could ultimately lead to the end of shale production. Natural gas extraction in Netherlands was recently shut down because it was causing too many earthquakes.
(I know that the fields in the Netherlands were very depleted, as well. I expect that low profitability also went into the decision to shut down.)
I am afraid this author is correct. Everything is insolvent. The banks that would bank out other banks are insolvent.
The author concludes:
“And the ultimate consequence is going to be the loss of the US dollar as the global reserve currency.”
where’s the all make believe?
it’s all real, and still working okay.
the world economy is primarily an energy system, and bAU is rolling along still close to peak surplus energy.
the secondary financial layer uses debt, that’s just a real fact of how the system works, and banks have failed for as long as there have been banks, and debts have been defaulted on for as long as there have been debts.
it’s all real, the surplus energy will be declining soon, probably very slowly, maybe it has begun already.
more bank failures and debt defaults are on the way, even for entire countries, some smaller weaker countries will continue to be hammered by financial problems which go hand in hand with actual physical economic problems.
the US might also collapse within a few decades.
I’m not losing any sleep over any of this.
que sera sera.
Timing is the big issue. And we don’t know that.
And finally, there’s panic in the air…
We are a construction machinery and material handling dealership. Our business in the first quarter of 2024 was down 2 percent, and the industry was down 12.3 percent. Our manufacturing clients seem almost on the verge of panic, and there is stuff in inventory. We need a guest-worker program to meet our skilled-labor needs long term.
We have not been this slow since the Great Recession. This includes Covid. We cannot understate how terrible the prospective real estate market is. People are not filing zoning cases, meaning in two years there will not be construction. Volumes have gone down in the automotive industry. It seems they are beginning to turn around, so we’re hoping.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/verge-panic-dallas-fed-services-survey-suffers-longest-slump-lehman
Good point. This chart is particularly worrisome.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmFEC0_0.jpg
Local JD has many tractors, implements, Gators, etc. on the lot.
I follow auctions, seem to be more than normal steel fabricators, machine shops closing up.
Dennis L.
This could be a revolting development:
I am in favor of research but maybe,
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/physicists-simulated-a-black-hole-in-the-lab-then-it-began-to-glow/ar-AA1nT5Zr?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=671506aac6ad4a868c1a8e51332d3418&ei=11
Basically a black hole in a laboratory. Could be exciting as the event horizon begins to engulf the campus. How ever would one get all those student loans repaid when they are beyond the event horizon? Got it, send the debt collector into the black hole and have him/her report back.
Dennis L.
Sorry. You have never dealt with debt collectors. They will make sure the debt is paid, beyond the black hole or not.
Nice humor.
Dennis L.
It’s experiments like that which cause the Mandela effect, according to some people. 😉
Re. the Mandela effect, in this video, recorded in 1977, author Philip K Dick talks about his theory that something called “orthogonal time” exists.
https://youtu.be/DQbYiXyRZjM?t=86
====================
Here he refers to living in a simulation! In these 15 seconds, he describes what we might consider as “the Mandela effect”.
https://youtu.be/DQbYiXyRZjM?t=1080
In the video Dick references what some may regard as “God” and “Heaven” – very strange experiences! The video may therefore appeal to philosophy-heads here (e.g. our resident Russophile commenter) and also to Dennis L.
The title is complete male cow refuse of course. They just fired up a solid state system governed by similar equations in a narrow range. there never was a chance of it going black hole. we can not produce it, but the first one to be produced would also be the last.
Always appreciate comments by others on some of these ideas; some pretty smart people here.
I shall rest easy and hope this experiment is “benched” so to speak.
Dennis L.
Something closer to home:
Ethanol and IA.
Iowa leads the nation in ethanol production, with 62 percent (1.6 billion bushels) of the corn grown in Iowa going to create nearly 30 percent of all American ethanol.
https://www.iowacorn.org/media-page/corn-facts
Enquiring minds want to know: What effect will electric car mandates have on the value of farmland? What effect will electric cars have on the value of JD stock if 62 percent of the land no longer has a market? Will this influence the value of
RE in the Quad Cities? What is a time line for introduction of all electric vehicles?
Since you asked:
“California has set a mandate that starting in 2035, all new passenger vehicles sold must be electric or hydrogen-fueled1.
IHS Markit predicts that global sales of plug-in vehicles will top 12.2 million in 20252.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicted in a 2020 report that over half of all passenger vehicles sold will be electric by 20402.
UBS predicts that electric cars will account for 20 percent of new car sales in 2025, 40 percent in 2030, and almost 100 percent in 20403
.
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, stated that it would take at least 30 to 40 years to replace every internal combustion-engined vehicle out there with an EV4.”
The numerals at the end of the line are references outside of Copilot.
So what is the PV of IA farmland? Can only estimate, but looks like there may be a ceiling.
Now, throw in a cubic mile of Pt and it is a whole different ballgame.
Yes, totally renewable, yes not polluting, yes substantial effect on the value of dirt.
Who would have thunk Psyche could change the value of farm land? If NASA finds Pt, what is the PV of that investment? My guess, BIG. And it is GREEN.
Dennis L.
Psyche is a psy-op. Even the name is a joke. A trap to keep people like you to continue to believe in false hope.
Why can’t trade be conducted in any units? Ton of wheat, ton of corn, ton of oil, ton of copper…? Most trade between countries is balanced trade so no need to deliver these things but book keeping.
Any country that is out of balanced will lose their ability to trade.
Maybe the problem is the financial guarantees. Even if the trade is in barrels of wheat (or whatever unit), the problem is that sometimes payment needs to be made before the goods are actually shipped. This is especially case with things made to order. There needs to be some guarantee by a bank or other organization that the goods will actually be shipped, and will arrive as planned.
I know that back in the days of sailing ships, this guarantee was wrapped into the insurance for the safe arrival of the boat shipping the goods. It was part of an insurance contract.
I believe that now there is a bond issued by a bank. There was a problem back in 2008 when some low-rated intermediate parts of the supply chain could not get the bonds they needed.
You are talking FOB unless I am mistaken.
Trust is a wonderful thing, makes things so much easier and so much more profitable.
Dennis L.
You also get into the quality of the promised items. When you get a dollar in your bank account, it’s no better or worse than any of the other dollars.
Lots of military helicopters flying over today. No idea what it means. Almost never happens. 100 miles north of NYC.
From Zerohedge, about make believe asset prices and more bank failures:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-game-make-believe-comes-end
The Fed’s Game Of “Make Believe” Comes To An End
Just my perspective. For decades the Fed incentivized treasury purchases by arbitrarily declaring them “prime collateral” so various financial and sovereign institutions had to buy them. You must buy our debt to participate in the fractional reserve banking system. For such a farce it’s been amazingly resilient. Debt based settlement worked even if you didn’t care for it.
The sovereigns and financial institutions bought the lion share each time uncle sammy wanted to go more in debt. What was left over is called the tail. This was bought by the “primary dealers” more or less direct proxy buyers for the fed. Seen not buying our own debt, nope. It is this arcane mix of incentives and proxy buying that has been the basis of our western financial system.
Well it appears some things have changed. The sovereign buyers are gone. The banks are saturated. If they take on more treasuries they go poor. The primary dealer system can not buy the tail. The whole thing is the tail.
As I mentioned the debt levels exceed all the world’s economies as a tithe that can be borne. A little funny money lube reflected by the “prime collateral ” and the primary dealer clown squad with cars of cash simply cannot service the debt anymore. It’s grown too large for the clown show to maintain. 340000000000000 with another T added every 100 days soon to be 90 etcetera. Hence what we witnessed the last three months when an unprecedented 7T came due. “Foreign buyers”. Except no real foreign buyers exist as a function of real organic economies that could have spared even a small fraction of the tithe required. “Foreign buyers” located in jurisdictions where the source of the funds is protected.
But there is no longer an organic source that can spare the tithe. The virtual infinite debt must have a virtual infinite fund. The end of the “prime colateral” tithe collection and proxy clown tail buying as a celebrated means of funding infinite debt is indeed noteworthy. These farce auctions have after all been the very essence of apparachnatik of both our debt based fractional reserve financial system and infinite government spending. How puny to have something as easily seen through as mystery infinite “foreign buyers” replace the grand ponzu theatre that has been known as “treasury auctions”. That’s what this intricate clown show is replaced with shadow :foreign buyers? Is nothing sacred? IMO this will be only a temporary measure. Some much more virtual engine must be placed to fund debt of infinite nature.
I’m afraid you may be correct. The US is adding a huge amount of debt, and other “Advanced Countries” are too. No buyers can be found, so phony “foreign buyers” must be simulated in some way.
I understand that US tax collections in April were higher than originally anticipated. This kept the US’s borrowing needs down, just recently. But much bigger funding needs are anticipated later this year, because the big US tax collections come only once a year.
The US government cannot allow long-term interest rates to go up, partly because it will sink banks. The value of the bonds they are holding will fall. They will be subject to Silicon Valley Bank problems. Also, higher long term rates will tend to sink real estate of all kinds. It will be impossible to refinance commercial real estate at prices that holders of this commercial real estate can afford: Employers won’t be able to lease much space if the cost is too high. Renters of mall space will be worse off than now. Rent for apartment buildings will become increasingly unaffordable to renters–they will tend to move in together, or with relatives in houses, leaving more apartments vacant.
Its interesting that the 7T that came due all at once was a function of real market demand. Institutions decided if we must hold treasuries we will hold short term. “Foreign buyers” solves that “stellar demand” for 20y. Nice even tithe requirments that dont require drastic “foreign buyers”.
Really suspension of mark to market is nothing new made permanent for bank assets in 2011 or so. In some ways treasuries are less susceptible than other assets as you have a guaranteed price and a guaranteed buyer at maturity. It’s what happens in between. When you by definition allow institutions to create multiples of currency based on the presumption of debt as value some get into a bit of trouble. Who would have thought? 🙂 The idea has been that those loans tie those treasuries (debt) to the real economy via real collateral and business. What we witness is increasing use of that leverage to buy more treasuries (debt) when the “prime collateral” is treasuries (debt).
And why not? If treasuries are prime collateral why not just leverage them and buy more treasuries? Some exposure to the organic economy is necessary, and that’s the rub contained in bankruptcy rules.
Last month we saw the rules changed so 100% of deposits can be held in treasuries. Any bank depositor is a treasury investor. It’s a difficult problem. On one hand, the intimate nature of the debt requires the majority of surpluses from the economy. But if all of the surpluses go there there is no longer any tie to the organic economy. Yet another assumption is there is always surplus. Obviously what is needed is virtual surplus for infinite debt. 🙂
In the short term this spurt of “foreign buyer” phenomena will likely be an isolated event, in the extreme seen in the last months as the spread has been evened out and kicked down the road with “stellar foreign buyer” 20y purchases. This allows the pot temperature to be raised slowly and evenly.
The looming question in the US reserve currency status is the final tie to organic economy. IMO this is clearly the issue behind the nuclear war posturing a game where things are done slowly so as not to upset the cart when the cart owner has nukes. There seem to be pivotal changes afloat. Blinken’s recent treatment in China was extraordinary: Left to find his own way to the airport with only the US ambassador to see him off. From the Chinese no less–absolute subtle communicators–this was complete poo in face. Not loss off face, poo in face. Didn’t even call him a Uber. 🙂 Rather different than boulevards lined with Chinese flags in San Fran for Xi. Yes they need China badly but it seems China has found a different suitor and is not returning texts. 🙂
You make some very good points.
I slightly edited your comment–make certain I didn’t make mistakes, particularly in this sentence: “The looming question in the US reserve currency status is the final tie to organic economy.” This is an issue we should be worried about.
You say, “Last month we saw the rules changed so 100% of deposits can be held in treasuries.” This is a way to get banks to absorb much more of the treasuries. But, as you say, there is increasingly no tie to the real economy. Just debt upon debt upon debt. I remember hearing about the recent change that allows 100% of deposits can be held in treasuries. Too much temptation to just add more and more debt, with no tie to anything.
And I hadn’t heard about China’s treatment of Blinken. Amazing!
Thank you, Blast for your recent very worthwhile posts. I think you may be interested in the deepthroat ipo blog which I’ve referred to here previously. The anonymous author has been studying the Chinese macro strategy vis a vis their USD accumulation for a number of years and the Cayman Is role incommercial bank credit creation and treasury debt support through leverage
deepthroatipo.com
I tried to find the specific rules you mention with respect to “Last month we saw the rules changed so 100% of deposits can be held in treasuries.” When I checked with google, I wasn’t able to find what you were talking about.
Do you have specific links, or titles of things we can look up, to learn more?
the debt is secured by our grandchildren’s future
unfortunately, due to lack of surplus energy they do not have a future
go figure
This is a problem.
The die-off has begun and will follow a bell curve, of course.
@ the speed of lightening…
where?
how many?
who has the data?
Nachem Malech, who anglicized his name as Norman Mailer, wrote the Naked and the Dead in 1948, based upon his own war experience in the pacific theater.
In there, the commanding General orders all the better quality foodstuff to be in the officer’s mess, and his young Ivy-league educated subordinate questions the General, who replies that there has to be a hierarchy and only those who run the system should enjoy the better stuff, and the General, feeling the subortaldinate has an opinion of his own, sends the latter to the front to be killed by the Japanese.
Mailer, a Harvard graduate, worked in the officer’s mess so it is an actual experience; later he got to become a scout in the Philiphines, a dangerous assignment, but did return to write his tale.
That was how the world worked before even in 1945.
I already talked about the death of Blind Willie Johnson, most famous for his piece making it in to the Voyager Golden Record. He was popular in around 1930 but by 1945 he was a bum. His house burnt down and he caught pneumonia while sleeping under a rain, only protected by a stack of newspapers. He went to a charity hospital, but it decided an unemployed, blind black man was not worth treating so he was sent back and died.
That is Civilization.
Frankly speaking, it was wrong, wrong and wrong to allow anyone with two feet (and some who didn’t have them) to enjoy all amenities of modern civilization. Only those with a stake in civ should have been allowed to use the latest gadgets, with the rest still walking barefoot, not allowed to ride in cars, not given medical treatment as we know it and not given smartphones to consume more resources, in order to leave them for those who could advance civilization to the next level and beyond.
All you do is whine about how you want the world to be more evil than it already is. It is as boring as it is pathetic.
Yup,
Dennis L.
Charlie Munger said “Your Life is going to Stink”.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire—your-life-is-going-to-stink-182346136.html
Here is my favorite interpretation of this
https://greyenlightenment.com/2015/03/27/billionaire-your-life-is-going-to-stink/
>
Back to the comments by Munger, it’s good news not because it’s good for Americans, but because it’s good that he is acknowledging economic reality that in our era of biological determinism and in our winner-take-all economy, maybe not everyone is cognitively ‘fit’ reap the fruits of America’s strong economy. Some people will be left out, and that’s neither bad nor good, it’s just the way it is. Understandably, these recent socioeconomic developments may make people anxious.
Munger was talented according to your definition and a very wealthy man. Maybe you should listen to what he had said in order to obtain what you want?
Yep, I just tend to skip Kulm’s posts.
If the evil is for the greater good, it is justifiable.
Yevgeny Zyamatin’s “We” , where both 1984 and A Brave World come from, describes a totalitarian govt where freedom of thought is crushed brutally, but it ends with a spaceship to outer space, showing all these suppression was worth it.
If more evil in the world had been necessary to advance civilization to the next level, it is justified.
Civilisation is advanced by creativity, not by destruction. You sound like a psychopath.
It is called ‘creative destruction’, like demolishing buildings which are too old to be useful
kulm
total bs
a totalitarian state, must expend all its surplus energy supporting its status quo—ie keeping its citizens in subjection, and grabbing resources from elsewhere to do it.
that in itself prevents the advancement to any level of civilisation
quite the opposite in fact
not that such an observation will deter your daft observations.
Doom loop…
America’s forgotten ‘doom loop’ city, where $205m skyscrapers are selling for under $4m and the decaying downtown has become a ghost town
By James Cirrone For Dailymail.Com
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13319895/amp/st-louis-ghost-town-san-francisco-doomloop-skyscrapers.html
St. Louis has endured worst recovery since Covid decimated city centers
The city’s real estate is plummeting in value, sparking major concerns
Its population continues to trend downward as city revitalization efforts falter
St. Louis downtown has become a ghost town – with buildings boarded up and skyscrapers plummeting in value.
Major cities like San Francisco have hit headlines amid concerns their urban districts are in the grip of a doom loop – but a new report by the Wall Street Journal revealed that St. Louis’ decaying downtown is facing an even worse crisis.
Local media have dubbed the trend in the midwestern city a ‘real estate apocalypse’ after 18 of the 25 largest office buildings shed $150 million.
The staggering decline is almost hard to believe for a metropolitan area that was the fourth largest in the United States between 1861 to 1903.
But modern-day St. Louis was hit hard by the pandemic, with its population sinking to below 300,000 for the first time since the 1800s, according to the New York Times. This compares to nearly 400,000 people living in St. Louis back in 1990.
In fact, St. Louis has seen the worst recovery in foot traffic to its downtown area of all other major US cities since just before the pandemic broke out in 2019.
The first one bites the dust..
This is a link to the WSJ article from April 9 talking about this issue:
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/doom-loop-st-louis-44505465
The Real Estate Nightmare Unfolding in Downtown St. Louis
The office district is empty, with boarded up towers, copper thieves and failing retail—even the Panera outlet shut down. The city is desperately trying to reverse the ‘doom loop.’
A chart shows that downtown visits are way down relative to 2020, unlike both other Midwestern cities, and US cities in general.
A case of deflation/inflation:
Buildings are made with concrete, 2008 price was $75/yard, in 2023 average cost $156.96/yard. Rebar in 2008 was $.60/pound, 2023 range of $.65-$1.00.
Cost of a building where it was placed, down, down, down.
One can have both inflation and deflation at the same time an over the same time period. More entropy in a building than in raw materials.
Tough time to make a buck.
Data obtained with Copilot.
Dennis L.
How do you know if the data is right if you don’t check it against an original source? Didn’t we find it making up nonsense numbers the last time we inquired with you about it on some other matter?
Good point. Been here for a long time and have come to the realization that what is posted here; take it with a grain of salt and be wary of the validity of statement/opinions
Basically, is an outlet for expression because the folks I’m in contact with are clueless or in denial and trapped in the BAU Matrix while it shifts under their feet
Ivan,
I don’t recall exactly what, but I did correct something when it was pointed out.
Copilot gives references to what appear to be original sources, generally several.
There is no way to check all this exactly.
I do purchase concrete, 10 yards, full load, and the prices are up.
I also purchase steel from time to time. The price is up.
We know the prices of CRE are down.
The numbers are consistent in this case.
I take what is posted here, often times from other than the US and try and see what is useful in my decisions which affect my business.
No more, no less.
It is meant as an example of how there can be both inflation and deflation at the same time and demonstrates stranded assets which appear to have a negative NPV.
Thanks for the comment.
Dennis L.
skyscraper or beach hut
a building’s value is entirely dependent on the activity within it
if i build a house ”worth” £xxx 000s—and it remains unoccupied, in 50 years that value will have evaporated to little or nothing
“New York CNN —
Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared in the first quarter to $1.3 billion, or $132,000 for each of the 10,000 vehicles it sold in the first three months of the year, helping to drag down earnings for the company overall.”?
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/24/business/ford-earnings-ev-losses/index.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
EV’s are a joke and those numbers give me hope that people are seeing that as well. It is really easy to total a Tesla just by improperly lifting it for a repair. There are a few things that must be done first or the car is ruined.
EU’s unwinnable price war with Chinese EVs summed up—BYD cars are 11 times more profitable in Europe than in China
BYRYAN HOGG
https://fortune.com/europe/2024/04/29/eu-unwinnable-price-war-chinese-evs-byd-cars-11-times-more-profitable-in-europe-than-in-china/
April 29, 2024 at 6:48 AM EDT
As a fleet of vessels ship ultra-cheap electric vehicles like BYD into Europe from China, helpless European carmakers have watched on begging for regulators to save them from a price war they can’t possibly win.
The EU is expected to slap tariffs on Chinese automakers following a probe into anti-competitive practices after carmakers were left in a “state of shock” by BYD’s affordable cars.
…Research from Rhodium Group has put a number on the size of the size of tariff required to put a halt to China’s EV advance into Europe. Unfortunately for native carmakers, that figure is much higher than what is expected to be implemented by the EU.
…According to our calculations, a 30% duty would still leave the company with a 15% (€4,700) EU premium in relation to its China profits, meaning that exports to Europe would remain highly attractive,” the group wrote.
“Duties in the 40-50% range — arguably even higher for vertically integrated manufacturers like BYD — would probably be necessary to make the European market unattractive for Chinese EV exporters.”
Such a number is effectively unworkable for now, thanks to WTO rules the EU currently trades on with China.
Instead, Rhodium says the EU may turn to “non-traditional tools” to protect native carmakers, such as restrictions based on environmental or national security factors.
Maybe we should just import them from China and ship more greenbacks to them..sarcasm
Price is always tied to first adopters. Commoditization seems part of the industrial process. E.g. microprocessors.
Dennis L.
No wonder China wants to sell the cars to Europe.
The issue that Europe hasn’t thought through is that it doesn’t have electricity for very many of these vehicles. It is as short of electricity as it is short of oil.
Guess:
China will make them and sell them profitably, Tesla can cut costs due to manufacturing process.
Large manufacturing companies have emphasis on profits and stock prices which are a function of a financial system which is at its core tied to pension plans. Demography and the old taking too much.
Engineers are not particularly well paid and the education is very difficult to obtain, a narrative will not cut it. Hence, too many layers of management which does nothing but collect a pay check. The money is in office politics, hope of making another buck, etc.
It can be done, but not as we are doing it, obvious from the article cited above.
Dennis L.
China uses a lot of subsidies and growing debt. I wonder how much is built into these automobile costs.
China appears to have the largest manufacturing base in the world, they are doing something right.
Housing, sometimes you need a way to keep people busy, housing is one of those areas. In the US
“Housing’s contribution to the United States’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) generally averages between 15-18%1. This contribution occurs in two basic ways:
Residential investment (averaging roughly 3-5% of GDP1), which includes construction of new single-family and multifamily structures, residential remodeling, production of manufactured homes, and brokers’ fees.
Consumption spending on housing services (averaging roughly 12-13% of GDP1), which includes gross rents and utilities paid by renters, as well as owners’ imputed rents and utility payments.” Copilot.
Residential construction is an easy, low technology way to stimulate the economy, interest rates come to mind.
Automobiles are production, Musk has revolutionized automobile production with extrusion molding, he is also working robots on the production line. China is a great copycat, probably use the some of the same techniques. Somewhere the start up costs had to be covered, high initial selling prices and subsidizes come to mine.
There is a great deal learned about production of autos which applies to other industries.
Guess on modern cars: other than tires and wipers they are disposable, not repairable with perhaps the Leaf as an exception.
Dennis L.
Another tumor on the Earth is spreading in virgin untouched by humans…
https://www.businessinsider.com/jakarta-sinking-indonesia-new-capital-city-nusantara-photos-climate-crisis-2024-4?amp
ECONOMY
One of the world’s biggest cities is sinking, so they’re spending $35 billion to build a new capital from scratch. Take a look at Nusantara
Jakarta, on the northwest coast of Java at the mouth of the Ciliwung river, is Indonesia’s capital and its biggest city.
It’s home to some 10.6 million people and about 30 million in the metropolitan area. It’s also sinking, with about 40% of the area now below sea level.
The Indonesian government plans to move the capital to Nusantara, a new city being built on the eastern coast of Borneo, about 870 miles north of Jakarta.
It will cost an estimated $35 billion and won’t be finished until 2045. About 6,000 government workers are expected to move there in time for the next president’s inauguration in October, however.
…Widodo sent some 100,000 workers to start building Nusantara, and the number later rose to between 150,000 and 200,000 as construction ramped up.
…network of roads has been carved into the forest since 2022 so that the construction of government facilities and other dwellings can begin. The initial population is expected to be about 500,000, according to the project website.
And the icing on the cake..try not to laugh too hard
Policymakers have claimed that Nusantara will be a “green, walkable” metropolis, powered entirely by renewable energy by 2045.
They plan to build a 50-megawatt solar plant and only electric vehicles by the end of this decade
Much has been plowed under and destroyed…
It has nothing to do with climate change (Jakarta’s sinking). More like drawing the aquifiers.
Excellent point!
OK I purposely posted the excerpts without that term mentioned for it matters not
The fact is for whatever reason the capital is being moved to virgin jungle and being rebuilt
It’s not like it’s being moved to another big city
BTW, Other cities like Boston, Miami, Washington DC are sinking too. Perhaps we should follow their lead and move them also to higher ground…sarcasm
Cambridge online dictionary reminds us that climate also means, “the general development of a situation, or the situation, feelings, and opinions that exist at a particular time.”
Nobody’s even lying when they state that climate change is affecting everything.
It’s the Orangutans that I feel sorry for.
But using solar power in the tropics makes more sense than using solar power at high latitudes. In Indonesia, there is no need for winter heating as winter never comes, and there is a good amount of insolation every day, even when it’s cloudy.
What would have been the point of no return?
Everyone will have own answers.
I personally think the 1983 nuclear crisis would have been a good one.
Stanislav Petrov, the Soviet captain or something who supposedly stopped the nuclear launches, was hailed a hero, but he is a villain, although his crime is not as big as Gabby Princip, Joe Gallieni or Chucky Fitzclarence.
A nuclear war back then would have caused a great suffering, but not unrecoverable since at that time there would have been many locales in the advanced countries not affected by the nuclear exchange.
More importantly, the Third World back then lived relatively poor, as everyone who remembers this
https://youtu.be/9AjkUyX0rVw?si=WEeMeKu5Ti_BYAie
would recall
Addis Ababa nowdays
https://youtu.be/VHeGntwDdJM?si=IV4RTYvB8U6_zpXo
https://youtu.be/Lpx0y9uTPqI?si=azKqS05U3VjzFtGD
While no bastion of wealth, its people consume way much more resources than back then.
Just more resources consumed for …. nothing.
I think it was the final chance the Providence, or whatever you want to call it, gave to humanity, and the Petrov idiot blew it.
Is there anything more pathetic than a deranged sociopath whining about how not having a nuclear war???
Damn good question. Hard to find something worse.
Me, a cubic mile of Pt. No political issues.
Dennis L.
For you nothing would be worse than not having your pet cubic mile of pt.
Well, Petrov’s actions prevented that from happening by enabling 4 billion more Third Worlders to waste resources which would have been used to build your starships.
It would have been a huge blessing in disguise since that would have prevented 40 years of consumption by 3 billion, now 7 billion, people who do not contribute anything to human civilization
Civilization develops the fastest when most people are kept poor , and therefore not really consuming resources.
You are just a deranged evil lunatic.
What good is a “developing civilization” that doesn’t benefit the people of that civilization?
Why don’t join the IDF and starve and murder children it sounds like one of your sick, evil, masturbatory fantasies?
He’s just the friendly neighborhood would-be-Hitler.
“People” can be defined in a bunch of ways
Before 1914 the ‘people’ did NOT include those who had no stake in society.
They were just treated as freeloaders.
i am all for defining you as “not a person”
you might make good fertilizer though.
dobbs you know the more you consume, the higher the likelihood of someone having an accident doing maintenance on expanding the grid, someone dying from sniffing paint and chemicals from processing industrial stuff, more children dying from your e-waste dumped into south america/south asia, more african cobalt slaves suffering, and more bombing and drone strikes on middle east for hydrocarbons right. your existence is basically murdering others… unless you want to suicide and do the duty.
You lose every nuclear war you don’t fight.
Quality products at fair prices, how long can this unchecked aggression, on the part of the Chinese, be allowed to continue?
Likewise, low cost ag products from Russia how long?
Both use low cost energy not available to the US/EU. Is it time to bomb the energy facilities of Russia and China? To level the playing field.
Interesting question! Of course, our problem in the West is that we cannot really bomb the energy facilities of Russia and China. Even if we could, the retaliation from Russia and China would be way too much.
We would all be equally bad off and not able to support our families.
Thank you Ed, insightful thoughts.
Dennis L.
Blinken showed up very late for his meeting with Xi. There is no end to the effort to provoke a nuclear war.
Blinken is an idiot . Threatening China when in China . Absolute uninformed about Asian culture .
He is an attorney, narrative.
Dennis L.
I’ve read an article some months ago about the influence of Italian mafia and Jewish community on US policies in the XIX and XX century. With the first now in a descending phase and the second in an ascending one.
The article said that these phenomena were due to the general low cultural level of the average American person (whose main, but non total, origin was generally the homeless Europen migrant) which allowed those two strong, determined, ancient and cohesive cultural niches to prosper and develop, reaching the highest level of power in that Country.
The article expressed the points from technical sociological points of view, but I’m anyway afraid that it couldn’t be fully summarized for the risk to be wrongly interpreted and – actually – I really cannot say if it is correct or not, because I’m not an expert about US history.
I don’t remember completely, anyway if I find again I will forward a link.
There is definitely a benefit of strong family ties. Relatives can support each other. But these ties are stronger in some cultures than others. And it takes energy to support these ties–money and the access to commodities–for these ties to continue. Thus, we can expect more of them among those with the wealth to support these ties. The Amish seem also to have strong family ties.
I know that I come from a culturally cohesive family, especially on my father’s side. This kind of support is important for children to succeed. One of my cousins has kept track of how many MDs and PhDs the family has. But we are not part of the Italian Mafia or Jewish Community.
Family ties are very important and I do believe in the same values.
I think that the article was referring less on family and more on how and why these sort of societies were operating inside The Society.
The fields that your ancestors lived from do no exist anymore. The limits of your living space are the shelves in the supermarket.
The small fields in the mountains are abandoned, because they are not suitable for today’s big machines that provide low priced food (of course, after subsidies from the state).
MG,
I don’t see any subsidies from the state unless the crop fails and crop insurance which is a paid for cost by the farmer.
Dennis L.
You do not see them, but e.g. the EU food production that must conform to strict measures like banning certain agrochemicals, needs to be subsidized.
The strict measures only exist as long as the governments that put them in place continue to exist and continue to provide funding. If there is enough discord, the EU will fall apart. If the central government of the Soviet Union could fall apart, I would think that the EU could cease to exist.
Remove the subsidies provided to the farmers under CAP program of the EU and I assure all will fall apart in 24 hours .
CAP= Common Agriculture Program .
Good point, I am only familiar with US and crop insurance here. Basically after insurance payments the cost of inputs is returned. This may include amortization of capital equipment, but should include fuel.
I have it but have never needed it, it is a sunk cost.
Dennis L.
I know quite some places in the Alps, where they have very likely grown perennial rye or buckwheat – according to literature up to 1500m.
These places are VERY small and may provide a family or two. What is more, these places are incredibly full of gravel, roughly 50%.
Frutiful loess areas are concreted over by streets and wind turbines. Don’t forget, that the regulation of rivers don’t follow agricultural needs.
According to my personal perception it is getting COLDER in the Alps. This May, for example, will probably completely spoiled by rain with temperatures falling to 6° C. The old people, though, say, in the old times there was much more snow.
Reports about rye cultivation may be related to regional climate changes. I don’t know any study about it.
From my understanding, it is gardens that produce the most calories. Soil and water can easily be controlled. Difficult areas and partly woods could be used for cows, goat, sheep, hens and pig. Manure can be used to fertilize the gardens. Animals are needed to produce fat. Soy and rapeseed monoculture is very much related to petrochemical agriculture.
I wonder, how people cannot see the obvious problem coming closer.
Psyche again:
NASA has a mission to look at this asteroid which appears to be 122miles wide, assume a sphere, so approximately 7.6m cubic miles of volume. It appears to be highly metallic and we only need 1 cubic mile of Pt. so 1/7.5m = 1×10^-5 percent of this asteroid. Multiply by .3 if you are so inclined, check my back of envelope math, please.
NASA is communicating with Psyche by laser and it works, apparently better than radio waves.
The guess is this thing is worth 10,000 quadrillion dollars. The value of one mile of PT at current prices is $7.88 quadrillion so the numbers are not that bad. If my numbers are correct Ni and Fe are a bonus.
Fast estimate with Copilot, based on earth, percentage by weight of Pt in earth is 1.5×10^-9 percent.
NASA is spending a great deal of money and effort to look at a rock. Someone is spending a great deal of money on Starship. Robots are improving at an exponential rate. The universe likes us, we are a 27 billion year project, they are thinking of something.
Get the Pt, make fuel cells , make H from solar energy collected on earth and we don’t pollute and we add no exogenous heat to our spaceship and stress the air conditioning. Other than the Pt(Bosch gives 95% recovery), this is true recycling both with H to water and back with no heat pollution, the heat is already here and SpaceShip earth is designed for that fusion, er solar radiance. We are changing sunlight to kinetic energy. Wow, a Tesla that can burn rubber all the way to 200 mph and do it for a thousand miles!
https://www.earth.com/news/psyche-asteroid-is-worth-10000-quadrillion-and-nasa-is-sending-a-space-probe/
https://us.bosch-press.com/pressportal/us/en/press-release-22144.html
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-receives-space-laser-message-from-140-million-miles-away/ar-AA1nMWXh?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=de67da3dc3fc49d3cf9fd9a438eff13e&ei=27
The last link gives new meaning to “phone home” in ET.
Dennis L.
I am afraid we are a long ways away in our ability to mine asteroids. It is not even clear that we have been able to step foot on the moon.
But “thinking outside the box” could perhaps be helpful. We are indeed running into difficulties with the alternatives to fossil fuels we are using on earth, so we do need other ideas.
Thanks Gail,
You have sold me on the idea that renewables don’t work and the idea the fossil fuels have some issues, an understatement if there was one.
I am an anti lemming lemming. If straight ahead is a cliff, then flip a coin and go right of left, the worst is a cliff there also, but maybeeeeeeee.
Dennis L.
No, just delusional.
Yes, this enterprise sounds expensive. I suggest that the mining of the asteroid be filmed in a warehouse in Arizona using celluloid film.
If it gives more energy out than energy in, it is not expensive no matter what the nominal cost. The US spends $1T/year on defense, there is no profit, it is all cost.
It will not be easy, but if psyche has Pt, it is probably doable.
The largest copper mine in the world has removed 2.3-2.5 billion cubic feet of material, all of it up hill. Excavating and moving that amount of earth would require 215 billion gallons of diesel, say at $3/gallon or $700B of fuel alone. That will present a fair amount of wear on the equipment. Space is frictionless, it is mv only.
The volume of psyche in cubic feet is 1.41×10^15, it is manageable and with a simple nudge the waste heads towards Jupiter and then as they say, it is all down hill.
It is not easy, but it is doable due to solar energy in space and no friction in space. Aiming balls of Pt at Earth will require care, gravity can be a problem.
We have the money, we do it on a yearly basis. Doing this would have the world lining up to invest, basically a repeat of the defense industry, jobs in the US and no chaos spread all over the world. One could even say we were “indispensable.” The congress critters would be besides themselves telling the US how all that money stayed in the US, jobs, jobs, jobs. Hey, you have to sell this stuff.
Pt gives peace on earth, goodwill towards men. The universe has 27B years invested in us, it will not let us fail.
Dennis L.
If someone is throwing money into this scheme it is just either 1) money laundering or 2) not knowing where to spend money.
There was a billionaire named Daniel Ludwig in early 1980s. He bought 3.5 million acres in Amazonian rainforest and tried to build an empire there.
https://youtu.be/nj_xOryPUKs?si=D_xr4cHVKxQQW3mL
He threw $2 billion into this project, with nothing to show for it. Although he was the richest man in the world in early 1980s no one really paid attention when he died.
He would be ‘talented’ in your definition, being the richest man in the world, but his venture failed.
The universe invested nothing on humans, like a homeowner not investing anything on termites. And modern humans are only about 10k-20k years old. The universe would not even notice if humanity goes away.
Klummie,
That was one of your best writeups to this date..
Yes, I do remember this man Ludwig..pretty similar to another’s ,
Henry Ford attempt to do the same that failed equally
The icing on the cake was your last paragraph.
F.E . believes that Laser reflectors magically appeared on the moon!
Time, date and mission number!
Otherwise B/S!
FE must have his hands full in Perth and keeping his head above water
Unprecedented rain has caused havoc in Perth’s northern suburbs with flash flooding leaving people trapped in their cars, homes damaged, and hundreds without power.
The 100mm of rain in less than an hour was not forecast in advance — leaving emergency services scrambling to help people mainly in Clarkson, Butler, Ridgewood, and Nowergup.
Crews were called to Winton Road, Connolly Drive, and Hester Avenue in Joondalup after reports of multiple cars being caught up in the flash floods. SES teams worked to assist people trapped in their cars.
hang on their FE. It’s all a hoax
Dennis
once again
virtually anything you dig out of a mine is useless without the application of heat energy–before and after digging.–on an asteroid or here on earth
after heat process has been applied, it is additionally useless without a consumer of some kind.
not that this will change your asteroid fixation, but it might light a bulb for someone else
Many people will dismiss this idea as fantastical, just because mining in space sounds fantastic and far fetched to them. They dismiss it without any hard analysis. The same people dismissed shale oil and gas as impractical back in the early 2000s, because it hadn’t been done up until then. Rewind seventy years, and they would have told you that nuclear power was a fantasy. Another thirty years and manned flight woukd have been impossible. It is intellectually lazy. New things are always impossible until someone does them. New things can and do develop. What was impossible yesterday is today’s reality. That might be true of space mining and manufacturing in 20 years time. But the hurdles are significant. Starship could be the key enabling technology, if Musk gets it to work before Tesla makes him bankrupt.
But here is the truth. Pt group metals are not very concentrated even in asteroid stainless steel ~20ppm. You would need to mine about 20,000t of iron to get 1t of pt metals. If space manufacturing were well established, then pt might be a useful byproduct that you could sell to customers of Earth. Until that happens, asteroid pt mining is not realistic. We aren’t even sure how low gravity bodies can be mined at present. And if we figure that out, we would need to chemically process tens of thousands of tonnes of iron to get even 1 tonne of pt metals. So forget about a cubic mile of platinum. That is not realistic in the lifetime of anyone here.
A lot of trouble on space mining comes from the fact that the materials have to come back to the earth one way or another, a problem such space mining advocates have never really thought about.
They for some reason think work can be done in the middle of space. I don’t think that idea will fly.
in order to ”sell” something on earth, you have to create ”money value” on earth
unfortunately. ”money” is just a token of energy exchange,–the more surplus energy you have, the more your ”money” is worth.
which accounts for our rise in standard of living over the last 70 years or so—all the result of colossal energy surpluses.
we havent got those surpluses any more
if we earthlings dont have any energy surpluses, then there can be no ”earth money” with which to buy ”space products”—or indeed to create and support the infrastructure with which to go and get ”stuff” from out there in the first place.
dream as much as youlike about ”spacefaring”—it wont alter the financial facts of life
Farmers warn food aisles will soon be empty forcing prices to skyrocket
The United Kingdom is facing dire food shortages, forcing prices to skyrocket, and experts predict this is only the beginning.
What’s happening?
According to a report by The Guardian, extreme weather is wreaking havoc on crops across the region. England experienced more rainfall during the past 18 months than it has over any 18-month period since record-keeping began in 1836.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/farmers-warn-food-aisles-soon-023000986.html?guccounter=1&s=03
I’ll believe it when I see it. Ehrlich saw this for the early seventies. Did I miss something?
Dennis L.
we’re in the USA, an inner part of The Core, so we probably won’t see it in our lifetimes.
Sri Lanka and Lebanon have these problems, Argentina is just about there, and UK on the way.
many doomers aren’t necessarily wrong, but their timelines are seriously too early (JHK etc).
Argentina is a quandary, it should work. Perhaps the women are too beautiful.
Such a burden, someone has to bear it.
Dennis L.
Hyperbolic maybe, but there is some truth to this…..it’s been a cool, wet year so far in my part of England….I’d guess that a lot of farmland is waterlogged.
Written more to be attention getting than true.
Here in Belgium we have had incessant rain in the first 4 months . Result ,fields are water logged ,however a lot of fruits and vegetable are grown in green houses so supply is stable . I don’t see any tractors . Affected is the construction sector . Cement needs dry weather to set in .
” During last month 126.5 mm of rain fell at KMI’s Ukkel Weather Centre. This is almost twice the average of 65.14mm of rainfall during February.”
What surprised me most was the simple fact that these people in the cemeteries are so interconnected,” said Zsófia Rácz, a researcher at Eötvös Loránd University’s Institute of Archaeological Sciences in Budapest, Hungary. Rácz was a study coauthor of the latest report.
The researchers were able to build detailed family trees or pedigrees, the largest of which spanned nine generations across 2 ½ centuries. The team discovered that around 300 of the individuals had a close relative buried in the same cemetery.
The analysis showed that men stayed in their community after marriage, while women married outside their original community — a pattern known as patrilocality.
What’s more, the study found, it was relatively common for both men and women in Avar society to have children with multiple partners.
……
In the case of men, researchers found two partners in 10 cases, three partners in four cases and four partners in one case. Having multiple wives may have been relatively common in the general population as well as the elite, the study authors wrote.
The team also uncovered multiple cases of closely related male individuals having offspring with the same female partner: three pairs of fathers and sons, two pairs of full brothers, and one sibling of paternal half brothers and an uncle and nephew.
Similar “levirate unions” that took place after the death of the woman’s husband existed in other Eurasian steppe societies, according to the study, and suggests that the Avars, who abandoned their nomadic way of life based on herding and became more settled shortly after arriving in Europe, clung to some aspects of their former way of life.
……Cassidy said that the oral history of female-line genealogy may have been important for the Avars, ensuring that daughters did not take husbands from among their mothers’ or grandmothers’ kin.
Avar graves — around 100,000 have been excavated so far — form an important part of Europe’s archaeological heritage.
The Avars were once part of what the Chinese called the Rouran khaganate or confederation of tribes, which the Turks defeated in 550, forcing the Avars to flee westward.
Traveling more than 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles) in a few years from Mongolia to the Caucasus, according to the 2022 study published in the journal Cell that pinpointed the group’s Asian ancestry, the Avars set up a base in what’s now Hungary and came close to crushing Constantinople, the center of the Byzantine Empire.
Some historians credit the Avars with bringing the stirrup to Europe — a transformative technology that made mounted warfare possible and was subsequently widely adopted across the continent.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/europe/ancient-dna-avars-empire-scn
Someone posted about this topic…this popped up on page..interesting
Interesting! I have read about multiple partners elsewhere, and this seems to follow a somewhat similar pattern. People died quite young back in the period in question (around 550), so it is likely that people would remarry to provide stability. When many women died in childbirth, or from injuries or illnesses, men would want to get help from someone else in raising children.
All of the patterns you suggest seem reasonable.
This supports Gail’s idea of low prices even with oil scarcity.
But I can see variations such as low price but not available.
Subsidized incomes holding the price higher.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/growth-in-spending-exceeds-growth-in-income-for-most-of-the-last-10-months/
I understand that in the past the price of oil fluctuated wildly. but now with the US unable to use it for geopolitical reasons, Saudi and Russia are doing their best to keep it on the high side and relatively stable. And surely until the collapse of the west prices will follow supply,
The charts seem to indicate that there is wide variability in how well people are doing. People who rent and are dependent in hourly wages are having major difficulties with making ends meet. People who get their income from investment income (or capital gains) or rent are doing much better. There were three big rounds of highly inflationary stimulus in the 2020-2021 timeframe.
https://i0.wp.com/mishtalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Personal-Income-and-Real-Hourly-Wages-2024-03.png
The benefit of these changes has largely worn off for the hourly wage folks. A lot of the “benefit” has gone into inflation.
” Gerald Horne’s latest book is a continuation of his careful
scholarly efforts to correct that historical deficit. Two of his
previous books recover the record of how the United States of
America was made by the slave labour of black Americans and
the fanatical determination to preserve this method of
enrichment by the white settlers called the Founding Fathers.”?
https://www.lobster-magazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/lob68-founding-fathers.pdf
Without fossil fuels, slave labor has been incredibly common around the world. The self-organizing economy seems to lead to the outcome of some people working for only room and board, and not much more. We have had unpaid interns in the United States.
Most here have heard the term “Energy Slaves” for fossil fuels, especially oil and coal…
What does this mean? In the early 1900s, “one energy slave could drill an oil well and discover another 100 slaves (100:1) to replace himself with,” McMillen wrote. “Today the ratio has slipped closer to 10:1.” The lower that ratio falls, the less energy surplus we have to drive civilization’s needs.
https://www.greenbiz.com/article/buckminster-fuller-energy-slaves-and-race-against-time
“Thus the Committee on Public Information had to rewrite US history,
almost from the beginning. This was the origin of the US mission in World War
I to ‘make the world safe for democracy’. “?
https://www.lobster-magazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/lob74-halls-of-montezuma.pdf
” The diplomatic manoeuvres by which France had assured that Germany went to war remained concealed . . . “?
https://www.lobster-magazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/lob74-halls-of-montezuma.pdf
“Wilson’s government was faced with a huge challenge: to create an image of the war in Europe which could be sold to the white citizenry. Moreover it had to create the illusion of a threat to the country which could make the US intervention appear as self-defence. To do this it was necessary to create a new image of the USA. To accomplish this complex task, the Committee on Public Information was established.”
‘Spin’ is not a new invention. When war comes in, truth goes out the window.
From the fall of 1915, Nearing was established as a radical “public man.” He joined the American Union Against Militarism in 1916 and delivered a series of speeches condemning the “Preparedness” campaign then being promoted by Woodrow Wilson and the nation’s political elite.[24] He also remained a university professor, teaching Social Science at the city-owned Toledo University from 1915 through 1917. The intense nationalistic feeling that swept the country now that America was embroiled at last in the war in Europe spelled the end of Nearing’s Toledo days, as he later recalled in his memoirs:
Al Miller, Chairman of the Toledo Forum, asked me to come to his office. He greeted me pleasantly and then said, “As you know, I am attorney for the Toledo Chamber of Commerce, on a permanent retainer. I am their legal spokesman; they are among my clients. They have directed me to introduce a resolution at the next meeting of the Toledo university trustees, ending your connection with the institution.” He waited a moment for this announcement to sink in.
“Of Course,” I said quietly. “That is one of the symptoms of war fever. Those who tell the truth or try to tell the truth are among the first victims of any war.”
Al hurried on, “You understand, there is nothing personal about this. You and I have worked together on the Forum and other projects with never a real disagreement, certainly never a fight.”
“That is true,” I said, “and I think our joint efforts have helped to make some real advances here in Toledo.”
“True,” said Al. “It is also true that I have enjoyed every minute of our cooperation.” Then he added: “At this point I guess we part company. I hope we part as friends, on two sides of the war barrier that separates us. Please remember that there is nothing personal about this,” he repeated. “I respect your stand and wish you well. My duty lies elsewhere.” We shook hands and I never saw him again.[25]
Why do Ivy League elites like war so much? Is it narcissism or essentially “God is Dead?”
I like the old image of the USA, “Avoid foreign entanglements” George Washington in his Farewell Address.
“Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations… entangling alliances with none.” Thomas Jefferson.
We had some damn good Presidents, Wilson was not one of them.
Ed put it simply:
God is Dead, Nietzsche
Nietzsche is Dead, God.
Dennis L.
I agree with you on this, a rare occasion.
Nietzsche is dead, God is imaginary.
How did the Universe come into existence? Why does it continue to expand?
We primates may not understand the nature of space-time correctly.
The idea of God is man trying to anthropomorphize the universe. God didn’t create us in his image, we created him in ours.
I agree that we created an image of God in our own image. However, this doesn’t leave out the possibility that there is a very different God that, in fact, created the ever-expanding universe. This God is still creating the Universe and is active every day in the Universe. This God is behind the laws of physics and the strange way self-organization works. There are many things we don’t fully understand.
And what these people did was anti civilizational since it robbed Germany its rightful wins and gave a lot of resources to peoples who didn’t know what to do with them, as seen in Prague nowdays
https://youtu.be/4F9GK4xR_9I?si=j23FgBiInYs1Ul-r
as if the Austrians never left.
Prag – Richest city of the Austrian Empire
Praha – a middling town trying to ape major western cities
Woodrow Wilson fouled up.
He made the world safer for those who had no stake on civilization.
The Wrong Side won the Great War, and Wilson awarded USA a huge chunk of Central Europe, stolen from Germany, and we are all bearing the fruits of his action because Poland and Czechoslovakia had to have their own country.
Nearly half a million UK businesses have become ‘financially distressed,’ with tens of thousands facing the possibility of insolvency within the next 12 months, a new report from Begbies has claimed.
https://www.cityam.com/half-a-million-uk-firms-financially-distressed-and-thousands-face-insolvency-as-they-pin-hopes-on-rate-cuts/
We have a choice of countries around the world from which a huge financial problem could emanate. UK has its role as well.
Interesting .
KLEIBER
IGNORED
04/27/2024 at 4:06 am
You’re not going to get any movement from the growth paradigm with the current system. Capitalism demands this regardless to maintain profits, it’s that or you start denying products and services to the masses, which is pretty much what we see. The premium consumer is being targeted more and more (fancy EVs, luxury getaways, basic untainted or otherwise reduced groceries etc.) because there is very little juice to squeeze left in the lesser peoples of society. The middle class is getting crushed and no one working minimum wage can even afford rent at the cheapest possible rates in the US or UK, to say nothing of saving and spending on conspicuous consumption.
Without the powers that be taking a bump to the noggin and realising the folly of their ways, you will constantly get “Net Zero by 2050” in the same breath as “an economy growing to meet all our needs” without any hint of aneurysm within the speaker’s brain.
Look at America now, going to China and telling them they are overproducing cheap EVs and renewable energy and consumer goods and having the gall to think they can tell a sovereign nation they should stop. Why don’t think that is? Isn’t it a good thing that workers in China can get the BYD Seagull for less than ANY other EV from any other global manufacturer? Why is China’s rampant move away from GDP growth and towards more robust, greener infrastructure seen as a as thing by the supposed enlightened leaders of the USA? ”
No one stops to think that “Net Zero by 2050” means, at a minimum, a huge decline in standard of living.
Does the china car work as well as the “mask” to stop the spread?
Ravi, You are quite the salesman.
better through in some “sources” from the tech world (EV ROCKS, or Etrick”)
BREAKING – Demark was powered by 100 percent CLEAN energy for .02 seconds in the middle of summer.
the continuing BAU in IC…
produces this, some calm and peaceful piano:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyy3CRuMQnc&ab_channel=ottaottaottadayo
left foot!
it’s PAU (Piano As Unusual) tonight, baby!
We need to take him out of the gene pool. His descendants might outcompete the rest of us. Can we get him a woke wife, perhaps?
I remember the early days of the scamdemic. From March to May 2020, people here in the UK clapped for the NHS every Thursday evening at 8 PM – standing at their doorstep or hanging out of their windows. I did not join in. I sarcastically referred to these events as “the Nuremberg rallies”. So many people were terrified of this Thing, this invisible disease that supposedly stalked us but was leaving no traces that I could see in real life. I was astonished at how many of the public believed the propaganda.
It made me think of AH and Germany in 1933. The German president of the day made AH the chancellor of Germany on 30 January 1933. From Wikipedia:
“On 14 July 1933 Germany became a one-party state with the passage of the Law Against the Formation of Parties, decreeing the Nazi Party to be the sole legal party in Germany. The founding of new parties was also made illegal, and all remaining political parties which had not already been dissolved were banned.”
In less than 6 months AH had transformed Germany into a one party dictatorship. The scamdemic propaganda convinced me that the people of my country would likewise readily accept a dictatorship in modern times. YouTube and the media became heavily controlled and censored as regards medical info and the scamdemic.
Yet now criticism of the scamdemic response is filtering through to YouTube, etc. It is being allowed now. Why? John Campbell is one of those at the forefront of this new phenomenon. Absolutely amazing that he makes such devastating claims (which most of us know all about here on OFW), and amazing that YT doesn’t stop it.
Midazolam deaths
Excess Deaths in the United Kingdom: Midazolam and Euthanasia in the COVID-19 Pandemic
interesting zemi you tube is changing its rules allowing the truth to come out it could have something to do with the last davos meeting in january these paragraphs i copied show the new policy directive by davos : ‘ In an age where information is as accessible as it is manipulable, the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Threats Report has highlighted misinformation and disinformation as the number one threat to world stability in the next two years.
The revelation, detailed in the forum’s latest comprehensive study, points to a future where truth is not just contested but often distorted, with significant implications for electoral integrity, societal cohesion, and even the very nature of democracy’.
Thanks, adonis. It makes you wonder, “Why now?” Will they operate “limited hangouts” so that they can offer up some sacrificial lambs to the public? It reminds me of the plaintive plea of Lee Harvey Oswald when captured for the crime he probably did not commit: “I’m just the patsy!”
So the powers that be and the Deep State have instigated a new rule that there is to be no misinformation or disinformation. Presumably the memo has been sent to all the politicians and militaries and secret services et al in the world. “What? No more propaganda and dirty tricks, chief? But we’ll get BORED!”
Colour me sceptical. 😉
wow Z, some evil people in the country where you live, here too and in every other country of course.
I would have stopped them if I had been elected King of the World.
but I wasn’t.
while in the long run there would be less human suffering if the world population would start to decrease in 2024, this evil method is not the way to proceed.
you are with me in wanting less human suffering, yes?
“you are with me in wanting less human suffering, yes?”
Only for my favoured groups. Less suffering for all animals, though. 😉
yes animals are people too.
“Yet now criticism of the scamdemic response is filtering through to YouTube, etc. It is being allowed now. Why?”
Zemi, remember ‘you’ll own nothing and be happy’. Most people do, but forgot some of the other pronouncements, like ‘trust in governments and institutions will erode away’. They can’t fully bring in their new normal until you all follow the script and demand it and you will demand it. Problem, reaction, solution, works every time.
“the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Threats Report has highlighted misinformation and disinformation as the number one threat to world stability”
Adonis, ask them which one. Mis or dis, they are different, so can’t both be number one. I’d personally say the biggest threat was them and their demented accusations of malinformation.
https://shadowrunners.substack.com/p/prebunking-of-malinformation?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
David, there’s still a chance for you to be world king. Free 80%+ dark chocolate and coffee from a certain place in Costa Rica will get you my vote(infinite FFs as well please). You can bribe others with free injections(just rebrand any old innocuous ailment as now deadly and offer redemption through a needle. They’ll even clap on demand, like performing seals) and reduce population at the same time. Tell them they’re saving the planet and they will happily clap for their own demise.
as King of the World, one of my priorities would be ensuring the continued supply of dark chocolate.
Agreed!
I wonder how many people are really getting the message.
I hear people talking about wanting to get another covid booster.
Unfortunately, half the population is always below average intelligence.
I used to email my next door neighbour links that exposed 9/11 and showed the Towers turning to dust in mid-air. He got it. I then sent him a link to Event 201 of October 2019, showing him that the “pandemic” had been flagged in advance. He replied: “I believe this is called ‘trolling’ on the internet. Don’t troll me!” I was astonished. But so many people believe that their government would never deliberately do anything wicked.
“Think how dumb the average American is. Then realize that half are even stupider than that.”
— George Carlin
I had a neighboor till some months ago, a nice woman around 60 years old, who died in one single month after the fourth Covid vaccine dose for a sudden cancer in the intestine.
Her sister, who has been diagnosed for a pancreas cancer after the third dose, told my wife and myself that she is going to take the fourth dose because she has been called by the hospital which is following her cures and the nurses told her that she absolutely needs to the take the new Covid vaccine dose because her immune system is too weak…
The tragic-funny thing is that our Veterinian told us to avoid any kind of next vaccine to our dog because our dog has a cancer and her immune system is too weak….
I did not join in. I sarcastically referred to these events as “the Nuremberg rallies”.
Yes, we know, Zemi. Norman sent a full report on your activities to the appropriate authorities. Ever wondered why your social credit score and chocolate ration are so low?
Some of us were knocking Dr. Campbell back in 21 when he was recommending vaccination against COVID-19, but personally I think he has made up for it since by crusading against medicated mass murder. I would rate him as “late but well-meaning.”
“Ever wondered why your social credit score and chocolate ration are so low?”
Maybe I should restart the Social Credit Party.
“The Social Credit Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland was a political party in the United Kingdom.
The organisation was led by John Hargrave, who gradually turned the movement into a paramilitary movement for social credit. With its supporters wearing a political uniform of green shirts, in 1932 it became known as the Green Shirt Movement for Social Credit and in 1935 it took its final name, the Social Credit Party. At this point C. H. Douglas, the originator of Social Credit and the ideological leader of the group, disavowed the Greenshirts as he did not support the establishment of a political party based on his ideas. The party published the newspaper Attack and was linked to a small number of incidents in which green-painted bricks were thrown through windows, including at 11 Downing Street, the official residence of the Chancellor of the Exchequer.[ The leadership stated that they had formed the party after a series of independent candidates, espousing various forms of Social Credit, had sought election and they feared that this proliferation of interpretations could lead to the ideological message being confused and weakened.
The party began to decline when political uniforms were banned by the Public Order Act 1936. Its activities were curtailed during World War II, and attempts to rebuild afterwards around a campaign against bread rationing had little success.
In 1976 C. J. Hunt, treasurer of the Social Credit Political League, formed a new party under the old name.[ This short-lived group was based in Bradford, West Yorkshire, where it was active in local politics.”
We seem to be hitting a period similar to the Depression, when this idea came up before. (Or perhaps, we are still in the “Roaring Twenties,” before the collapse of the stock market on October 29, 1929.) Governments need a way to control their people. Religion isn’t providing the benefit it did before.
The Emperor’s New Clothes is a famous story.
Everyone knows the Emperor is naked, but everyone keeps silent since if the veneer is broken the entire edifice collapse.
That moment the idiot child cried that the Emperor is naked, the empire is done. With the town knowing the entire story, the Emperor cannot force his will over the people anymore, and the Empire falls to foreign enemies.
Something like that happened in feudal Japan in 1860. Ii Naosuke, who was the Regent to the young shogun, was attacked and killed by a bunch of assassins in front of a massive crowd in central Edo (Tokyo).
Although it was quickly proclaimed that Naosuke died of an ‘illness’, everyone knew that the ‘illness’ was caused by some assassin cutting Naosuke’s head, and the shogunate was no more within 8 years.
Which is why no one is willing to admit the death of the dollar. It is being suppressed as much as humanely can.
Virtually all assets around the world are dominated in dollars or some variation of it. If the veneer is broken, global economy simply dies. Trade dies. Exports die. At once.
It will be like the entire world having a heart attack at once.
The Brics currency will simply be another form of dollar. It won’t do too much..
Crhptocurrency is also dominated by dollar or something linked to it. It will also collapse, and the world returns to the scale of Arabian nights, which as we know it actually reflects the situation in early 18th century France, since that version was compiled by Antoine Galland in around 1710.
I am not sure that the “global economy simply dies. Trade dies. Exports die. At once.”
Trade has been going on for a very long time. Abram is reported to have left the land of Ur, when he set out. Ur was a major world trading center 2600 years before Christ was born. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ur
Trade has gone on in many different forms. In some cases, there has been barter. Gold was used as a medium of exchange for a long time. If there are things that one part of the world has, but another does not, and there is transportation in between, it is a pretty good bet that there will be some trade back and forth. It may be that trade will be limited to trusted partners, for example, or will not cross the Atlantic or Pacific as much as it does today, because of the huge energy cost of moving goods that distance.
It would take a while to re-equilibrate to a goat-herder level of exchange. It may or may not be possible. If possible, a large number of humans may end up outside the monetary parameters.
You are of course correct Gail. One form of trade will quickly be transplanted with another, as the need dictates.
The western bleating, is no more than the understanding that our free ride off of the backs of the rest of the world is over.
A look at the trade deals and routes organised over the last 5 years, give a very clear picture of where things are heading and no amount of bemoaning will change that reality. “Trusted partners” being the key that most people in the west don’t seem to grasp. We’ve proved otherwise, far too many times to be taken seriously anymore and so we will be shut out.
A small reminder for those that can’t see past the unimportant boundaries of their own shores.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/Economy/russia–china-ditch-dollar–moscow-announces-new-trade-corri
good one, glum.
“… the world returns to the scale of Arabian nights, which as we know it actually reflects the situation in early 18th century France, since that version was compiled by Antoine Galland in around 1710.”
well played, you have turned towards a more realistic version of the future, and away from your unreasonable space fantasy Type 1 sci-fi illusions.
why the change?
What I wish for and the reality are vastly different animals
space energy does not work.
Lol
Another story about a delusional elite bringing about his own destruction because of his delusions.
But of course
You blame it on the child
Rather than the king trying to impose his delusions on everybody.
Rotflmao
The story I learned was that after about 240 years of running Japan as an isolated country, the ruling Tokugawa shogunate as no longer able to keep the barbarians out. This caused an enormous loss of face and crumbling support, especially in the west of the country, where Rockefeller money was finding its way into rebel movements.
The Meiji Restoration when the Emperor was returned to power, or at least influence could be considered an early color revolution.
The last Shogun, Yoshinobu, faced the ultimate punishment in Japan for losing power after an armed conflict: He was forced to retire from public life and placed under house arrest in Shizuoka, where he lived in seclusion for several years, dedicating himself to cultural pursuits, such as poetry and calligraphy, and avoiding involvement in politics.
After that, he did quite well, serving as an informer government advisor and member of the establishment. He survived his fall from power for more than four decades and even outlived the Meiji Emperor by several years.
And the Tokugawa family are still very rich and influential today, and considered part of the Japanese aristocracy, albeit without most of their former landholdings, 160 years after the end of the shogunate, in line with Kulm’s observation that in civilized countries elites have ways of maintaining their social prominence.
Postscript
The current head of the Tokugawa family, Iehiro I believe, married a vietnamese woman and has no children. It is not too clear who will succeed him.
Russia has opened a major new front today in UKR in the direction of Kharkiv in NE UKR.
UKR transferred troops to attempt to reinforce its collapse in the direction of Donetsk and Russia took the initiative.
A Russian offensive has been expected for some time but Russia is going with the organic flow of the conflict.
UKR is also majorly collapsing in a disorganised retreat today in the direction of Donetsk.
UKR is beginning to fall apart now in an operational collapse.
It is widely anticipated now that UKR will have to retreat all the way back to the Dnieper river through the middle of UKR.
It was always only a matter of time and UKR/ NATO cannot say that they were not warned at the outset.
https://warnews247.gr/war-monitor/oukrania/ntomino-ekseliksewn-sto-ba-xarkobo-oi-rwsikes-dunameis-katelaban-thn-kislobka-kai-apeiloun-me-katarreush-thn-oukranikh-amuna-tou-koupiansk/
Domino of developments in NE Kharkiv: Russian forces occupied Kislovka and threaten the immediate collapse of the defense of Kupiansk!
Kiev is in a dilemma – The Russians have opened a new big front!
Russian forces launched offensive operations and managed to capture Kislovka on the northeastern front of Kupyansk. The Ukrainians are starting to retreat on this part of the front as well.
The Russian military command decided to open a second major front in the Ukrainian Army after Donetsk (Chasov Yar-NW Avtifka) in order to take advantage of the redeployment of forces attempted by the Ukrainian A/GED A. Sirsky.
Kiev must choose between stabilizing the front in two large areas at once, in Donetsk and now in the region northeast of Kharkiv.
The settlement is very important for the defense of Kupyansk. The Ukrainians may be led to a domino collapse and immediately lose the settlements of Ivanovka and Kotlyarovka. According to information, the Russians already control the dominant heights in the area of Kislovka.
Any attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to support their garrison with reserves along the only route on the axis Stepovaya-Novoselovka-Ivanovka-Kislovka-Kotlyarovka were intercepted by Russian troops.
The Ukrainian defense in Kislovka was broken
After several days of heavy shelling, Russian troops took control of the heights along the railway, which led to the occupation of the first houses of the settlement of Kislovka.
“The Russian army broke through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction of Kupyansk in Kislovka, Ukrainian military analysts admitted.
The Ukrainian Deep State portal under the Main Directorate of Intelligence confirmed that the Russian Armed Forces breached Ukrainian defenses in Kislovka, Kharkiv region:
“at 10 a.m. on April 26, Russian troops launched massive counter-offensive operations in Kislovka and by the end of the day gained footholds in the residential area.”
The Russians report that in fact, the attack and breaching of the Ukrainian defenses took place on Thursday. On Friday, Russian strike groups consolidated and stormed new Ukrainian positions.
“In the area of the Russian attack was a ground defense unit, limited in strength and resources.
It is embarrassing for the children to lose ground, but without the support of heavy weapons the situation could get significantly worse ,” writes the Deep State.
According to Russian sources, units of the troop group “West” massively beat the Ukrainian defense lines and stormed Kislovka. In preparation for the offensive operation, reconnaissance officers of the “West” group identified the Ukrainian strongholds and bombarded them with artillery.
After intense artillery fire as well as airstrikes, Russian troops occupied the eastern and southeastern part of Kislovka, taking control of the railway station.
At the same time, attacks are being carried out on the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which the Kyiv administration is trying to transfer to the Kupyansk region. Explosions occurred in Chuguef.
The road to Kupyansk is open – Kotlyarka also falls
Kislovka is north of Krahmalny, which has come under Russian control, and northeast of Tabaevka. The western outskirts of this settlement are located next to a major highway leading to Kupyansk.
The Russians report that the Ukrainians are in immediate danger of losing the settlement of Kotlyarka.
Russian forces claim they have already managed to bring the neighboring settlement under control by cutting off its Ukrainian garrison and controlling all supply routes.
If this is confirmed, then the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison in Kotlyarka will be semi-surrounded and, indeed, under full control of Russian fire.
Kiev in order to speed up the transfer of reserves through Kupyansk, is trying to create new waterways on the Oskol River. However, the artillery and aviation of the Russian Army are constantly actively operating against the Ukrainian Engineer.
On the northeastern approaches to Kupyansk, fighting continues at Shinkovka.
The Ukrainian administration is faced with a new dilemma:
The transfer of units from the northern side to stabilize the situation in the Kotliarka-Kislovka area with the risk of the Sinkofka front collapsing.
Ukraine is not doing well in its battles with Russia.
Maybe… maybe not. Who knows maybe it is propaganda to get more money sent to them. Do we really k ow the truth anymore? Is the internet really a free exchange of information and ideas? It is more difficult to find the truth anymore
Russia will win this war and then Nato will exit Europe leaving it defenceless to Russia the elders are going to give Europe to Russia if fossil fuels are nearly gone things would work better under a Russian dictatorship.
Ahem. We will defeat Russia and China at the same time. Didn’t you see Blinken recently went to China and dominated them? 🤣🤣
Blinken (Blinder?) thinks that Russia is winning only because China provides nitro cellulose to Russia. On a par with telling the Saudi king that he was very invested in the Gaza question because he is a chew.
this is a beautiful story.
the conflict is accelerating towards its ending.
Russia will annex the majority-Russian-speaking oblasts after the people in those oblasts vote to join Russia.
the small northwestern Ukranian speaking portion will continue on as “Ukraine”.
it’s all good.
Well, the Ukraine girls really knock me out
They leave the West behind
And Moscow girls make me sing and shout
That Georgia’s always on my mi-mi-mi-mi-mind
I think it will be difficult to occupy over the long term without the Carthaginian solution. But we will see; I thought Russia would defeat them in 3 months so what do I know? I’m not a professional military analyst with all the secret intelligence that some of the couch potatoes on here are. I’m fact having served in the military I don’t know what these flabby commentators actually know because they have the World Wide Web at their disposal telling them the truth 😂
moonofalabama is an ex military German guy, I think, and has lots to say, take it or leave it, he seems to know his stuff.
true the WWW is full of info, he seems to know how to find detailed stuff backed by more fact than opinion.
I saw weapons in the military that I did not know existed; that was over 10 years ago. I don’t profess to know all the weapons or capabilities today. In war there is a lot of deception and trickery you might blow a fuse trying to game plan everything. For all we know is that this is created by the military industrial complex. How do you get more money? Tell the Americans that they are being beat by Russia. I guess my main point is those who pontificate with extreme certainty are just showing their idiocy.
Oil on the other hand is a little more transparent but still I wonder how much we really know. Nate Hagins said it succinctly that only the extreme wealthy will know the truth. I don’t think we are there yet but soon you will only see what they want you to see..
So David maybe your BAU attitude will win in the end. Best not to know when we will die..
A major new archaeogenetics paper on the genetic origins of the Indo-Europeans talks about their formation in the Indo-Anatolian homeland in the Lower Volga region on the Pontic-Caspian Steppe.
Proto-IA were a mix of basically everything; EHG and so Siberian ANE; CHG; Anatolian Neolithic and so Basal Eurasian; Levantine HGs; and a Central Asian component.
PIA mixed with Ukrainian HGs who had extra WHG and so Magdalenian HG to form PIE. So the original Aryans had basically every ancestry in sight, all of the old HG groups.
(No they were not a ‘pure root race’ from Atlantis a la Madame Blavatsky but that is no massive surprise. They were always a mix of everyone just like everyone today.)
The PIE language had its PIA origins with any of the ancestral components involved in the Caucasus-Lower Vulga cline and I always warned that it anyone’s guess really.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.17.589597v1
The Genetic Origin of the Indo-Europeans
Abstract
The Yamnaya archaeological complex appeared around 3300BCE across the steppes north of the Black and Caspian Seas, and by 3000BCE reached its maximal extent from Hungary in the west to Kazakhstan in the east. To localize the ancestral and geographical origins of the Yamnaya among the diverse Eneolithic people that preceded them, we studied ancient DNA data from 428 individuals of which 299 are reported for the first time, demonstrating three previously unknown Eneolithic genetic clines. First, a “Caucasus-Lower Volga” (CLV) Cline suffused with Caucasus hunter-gatherer (CHG) ancestry extended between a Caucasus Neolithic southern end in Neolithic Armenia, and a steppe northern end in Berezhnovka [EHG] in the Lower Volga. Bidirectional gene flow across the CLV cline created admixed intermediate populations in both the north Caucasus, such as the Maikop people, and on the steppe, such as those at the site of Remontnoye north of the Manych depression. CLV people also helped form two major riverine clines by admixing with distinct groups of European hunter-gatherers. A “Volga Cline” was formed as Lower Volga people mixed with upriver populations that had more Eastern hunter-gatherer (EHG) ancestry, creating genetically hyper-variable populations as at Khvalynsk in the Middle Volga. A “Dnipro Cline” was formed as CLV people bearing both Caucasus Neolithic and Lower Volga ancestry moved west and acquired Ukraine Neolithic hunter-gatherer (UNHG) ancestry to establish the population of the Serednii Stih [Sredny Stog] culture from which the direct ancestors of the Yamnaya themselves were formed around 4000BCE. This population grew rapidly after 3750-3350BCE, precipitating the expansion of people of the Yamnaya culture who totally displaced previous groups on the Volga and further east, while admixing with more sedentary groups [Globula Amphora] in the west. CLV cline people with Lower Volga ancestry contributed four fifths of the ancestry of the Yamnaya, but also, entering Anatolia from the east, contributed at least a tenth of the ancestry of Bronze Age Central Anatolians, where the Hittite language, related to the Indo-European languages spread by the Yamnaya, was spoken. We thus propose that the final [last] unity of the speakers of the “Proto-Indo-Anatolian” ancestral language of both Anatolian and Indo-European languages can be traced to CLV cline people sometime between 4400-4000 BCE.
Definitely see the summary image: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2024/04/18/2024.04.17.589597/F1.large.jpg?width=800&height=600&carousel=1
Summary Figure:
The origin of Indo-Anatolian and Indo-European languages.
Genetic reconstruction of the ancestry of Pontic-Caspian steppe and West Asian populations points to the North Caucasus-Lower Volga area as the homeland of Indo-Anatolian languages and to the Serednii Stih archaeological culture of the Dnipro-Don area as the homeland of Indo-European languages. The Caucasus-Lower Volga people had diverse distal roots, estimated using the qpAdm software on the left barplot, as Caucasus hunter-gatherer (purple), Central Asian (red), Eastern hunter-gatherer (pink), and West Asian Neolithic (green). Caucasus-Lower Volga expansions, estimated using qpAdm on the right barplot as disseminated Caucasus Neolithic (blue)-Lower Volga Eneolithic (orange) proximal ancestries, mixing with the inhabitants of the North Pontic region (yellow), Volga region (yellow), and West Asia (green).
The entire pdf is available on that page but most of it is contained in that summary.
What I’m understanding from these kind of researches (which I’m also reading, not with your expertise, I think) is anyway that we are progressively making more clear to us what happened from the V to the I millennium before Christ.
It seems to me that it is less clear what happened to Humans from the X to V millennium before Christ.
I am interested in the purple Caucasian girls. Could you provide some more insights without being, well, lets say, preloaded?
Caucasus HGs seems to be derived from the Mesolithic Iranian HGs. Beyond that we are talking about extremely ancient lineages that are sparsely sampled and go back up to 50,000 years ago.
The origins of Iranian HGs is probably not really cleared up yet.
CHG is closest to populations in the Caucasus today like Armenians and Georgians but those have ancestry also from other groups so they are not representative of CHG.
All of the isolated and highly divergent Ice Age groups are mixed now and no representatives remain. Western Eurasia homogenised since the Neolithic and most variation is long lost.
I am sure that they were ‘lookers’ though lol.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caucasus_hunter-gatherer
> An alternative model without the need of significant amounts of ANE ancestry has been presented by Vallini et al. 2024, suggesting that the initial Iranian hunter-gatherer-like population which is basal to the CHG formed primarily from a deep Ancient West Eurasian lineage (‘WEC2’, c. 72%), and from varying degrees of Ancient East Eurasian (c. 10%) and Basal Eurasian (c. 18%) components. The Ancient West Eurasian component associated with Iranian hunter-gatherers (WEC2) is inferred to have diverged from the West Eurasian Core lineage (represented by Kostenki-14; WEC), with the WEC2 component staying in the region of the Iranian Plateau, while the proper WEC component expanded into Europe.[11]
50.000 years ago is too hairy. But thanks.
Thank you Mirror.
Have a nice Sunday
FUBAR .
https://www.brusselstimes.com/business/935740/belgian-charging-station-giant-powerdales-bankruptcy-leaves-users-stranded
“Belgian charging station giant Powerdale’s bankruptcy leaves users stranded”
I wonder if this will happen in many parts of the world. Someone thinks they can sell charging services, but they cannot make the system work profitably. The people who have contracted with the service are left without any way to charge their vehicles, especially when away from home.
According to this article:
“The charging stations themselves lack physical controls, with the Nexxtmove app serving as the sole interface for users to manage the charging process. Consequently, if the application ceases to function, so too does the usability of the charging station.”
This sounds like a problem waiting to happen.
Then there is the problem of the bankrupt companies making some of these vehicles. Getting service would become a problem.
Going ,going gone in Belgium .
https://www.brusselstimes.com/business/1002886/audi-forest-de-croo-on-a-mission-to-save-3000-jobs-from-plant-closure
A bus maker was declared bankrupt, and Volkswagen can’t make electric SUVs cheaply enough to sell them. There is a thought to move production to Mexico.
There are a lot of things not working. Europe’s industry has a huge problem.
The Revelation Of The Pyramids (Documentary)
I’m afraid I don’t have time to look at a long video about the pyramids of Egypt right now.
One thing I was thinking about this morning is the fact that population always outgrows a population’s resources. The challenge for governments is to provide jobs (rather than simply handouts) for all of those people whose wages might otherwise fall too low–people whose parents were farmers, for example, but at some point there get to be too many surviving children for all to farm.
The challenge for governments is to create enough make-work jobs for these otherwise unemployed individuals, so as to keep the “demand” for commodities high enough that the whole system doesn’t collapse.
Building pyramids would seem to be one such scheme.
Building cathedrals would be one such plan.
Building roads and highways to nowhere is another plan.
Building wind turbines and solar panels is another, also adding carbon capture and storage to coal fired electricity plants.
Maybe the ancient tunnels in Europe we saw recently were another such plan.
Maybe all of today’s colleges and universities with all of their fancy dorms and eating facilities are another such plan.
Such a plan delays the day of reckoning a while. If the plan revolves around a current religion, so much the better. We now have the religions of sustainability, advancement through education, and preventing climate change.
“We now have the religions of sustainability, advancement through education, and preventing climate change.”
But, science (physics, biology, etc.) isn’t religion, & its realities tend to impose themselves — with the results of the depletion of many million years of chemical energy from photosynthesis, etc., the effects tend to be hard to deny.
We have new religions that believe that we humans can certainly find a way around these problems. The cost of energy or electricity can rise arbitrarily high, and it won’t matter. People can live without roads, bridges, electricity transmission lines, or somehow these things can be made with electricity alone.
Yes Gail, I agree, élites are creating this kind of Religion about sustainability.
The key point is that it is a Religion which doesn’t talk about what will happen after death, but only a Religion for the present, where Humans are not important for their souls or it is not important that Humans find a way inside themselves for developing spirituality.
It is just enough that Humans find a way to be a correct part of the mechanism to make the system work correctly, in the same way an ant must do inside its anthill to keep it in good shape.
Dear Gail, a dissipative construction indeed. The purity of my dog taught me a lot of things. Who we are for example. Or what we are. Nature never should have invited a nuclear weapon like humanoids.
I am a believer Gail, I am working on the electrical angle.
Guess on charging stations: the business model does not work, takes too long to charge one car. Most I see around here are not in use. Have also read that the walk through traffic in the store isn’t high enough to make it work.
Who’d have thunk that the downfall of electrical cars would be the inability to sell enough Twinkies?
Electrical cars are just another example of dillution of the currency.
Yesterday i took a BitcoinCar to the supermarket. This morning i woke up with a Drag Queen demanding $239,99 for a fucking banana.
UKR’s fortified positions and lines are collapsing and UKR faces a retreat right back to the Dnieper river through the middle of UKR so they are looking at the loss of 40% of UKR land.
Russia is completely defeating NATO in UKR and it is widely seen as a ‘Suez’ moment for western hegemony akin to the pivot point in the loss of the British Empire in the 1950s. BRICS will rise.
NATO has massively banked its reputation on its proxy war in UKR against Russia. The initial sanctions failed to collapse the Russian economy and state and from that point it was only a matter of ‘tick, tock’.
Russia has been more than able to sustain the attrition war and to massively ramp up its military-industrial base while NATO has floundered and wilted for want of serious investment over decades.
So UKR is short of manpower, air defence, artillery shells, basically everything. A UKR reduced to the west bank of Dnieper is unviable for reasons of economic geography and Russia will anyway want some sort of control.
The situation for UKR has significantly worsened today with a new Russian front opened in Kharkiv in NE UKR but this is the overall scenario as discussed a couple of days ago.
Ukraine fallback to Dnieper, West/East Germany scheme
Alex and Alexander talk about how poorly Ukraine is doing. It keeps collapsing back, even at what seems to be its strongest point.
The Dneiper River in Ukraine is not a border; it is a transit artery. Ukraine’s economy is constructed around it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnieper
This doesn’t look good for NATO
Thoughts about this one:
Without biology there is no economics no matter how great the natural, non renewable resources.
An aging population uses different resources and probably fewer resources. The world is seeing a demographic shift.
Perhaps a race: which comes first, demographic impact or a shortage in a key resource?
Musk, again, Musk, he thinks more people are the solution and he is singlehandedly working on that problem. Busy man even has time for leisure.
Dennis L.
Rich men seem to have an easy time having children by many women.
I think the problem appears to us as a financial problem: banks collapsing, debt defaulting, lack of imports because of financial issues.
Yes !!! That sounds great for the Gene pool! jus kidding I am being sarcastic Klum!!! More Trustfunders are not what we need!!!
Shortage in key resources, which are needed to build your mythic starships.
New at Home Depot:
Went to HD for a piece of wire, 7′, close to $10, custom cut, I like some wires color coded. What was interesting is all the wire is now locked up, need an “assistant” to access it, perhaps they carry it to the front desk. She said theft was now a problem. Wire in rolls is heavy, won’t fit in a purse, etc.
This is in Rochester, MN, relatively safe city. Sign of the times.
Not so good!
Here in Florida
Loss prevention officer among 3 arrested for Home Depot theft scheme in Miami-Dade
The employee, who authorities identified as Lazaro Dunier Echevarria, 37, allegedly colluded with Jose Bello-Valdez and Yoannys Montano-Solano, both 44 and from Miami, to steal merchandise and resell it elsewhere.
An arrest report states Echevarria reportedly facilitated the thefts for Bello-Valdez by concealing merchandise in boxes meant for other items and allowing him to leave the store without payment.
Police said Echevarria, an asset protection specialist at Home Depot, was found to be facilitating thefts by opening locked tool cabinets and staging items to be stolen, while also “stealing from the very stores he was paid to protect.”
Happening elsewhere
Home Depot had conducted an internal investigation into the fraud, said the police, and determined that the suspect, 42-year-old resident of Richmond, California, had been taking cash from the business for the past year.
Lieutenant Scott Eberle at the SRPD told USA TODAY the suspect worked in the corporation’s finance division and had been taking various amounts of cash from the register each month ranging from $25,000 to almost $174,000 in August 2023 alone. On the day of the arrest, the worker had over $8,000 in their possession, according to the police statement.
Just part of the disintegration of social contracts
Yes, trust is essential to a society. The elites see much of the population as deplorables, it is not a way to build a group.
Dennis L.
Lucy Dean
Updated 23 January 2021·2-min read
March 14th 2020 – Bill Gates steps down from The Microsoft Corporation board of directors to become a full-time philanthropist. This will likely lead to increased activity for The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation which spends several billion dollars of Gates’ fortune each year. – File Photo by: zz/PBG/AAD/STAR MAX/IPx 2017 9/20/17 Bill Gates at The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation’s Goalkeepers Conference 2017 at Jazz at Lincoln Center in New York City. (NYC)
Bill Gates. Image: AP
Microsoft founder and billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates has received his first shot of a COVID-19 vaccine this week and reports he “feels great”.
In a statement to Twitter, the world’s third-richest man said he was eligible for the vaccine earlier due to his age of 65.
“I got my first dose this week, and I feel great. Thank you to all of the scientists, trial participants, regulators, and frontline healthcare workers who got us to this point,” Gates said, with a picture showing him receiving the shot.
The vaccine advocate lives in Washington state which is currently rolling out the vaccine to those 65 and older, along with first responders and healthcare workers.
Gates was one of the most prominent faces of the fight against COVID-19 in 2020, with the US$122 billion man devoting much of his time to discussing the challenges and opportunities the world had to combat the lethal disease.
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has committed more than US$400 million to the battle against the virus and the search for a vaccine.
Gates has long feared such an outbreak, saying in early 2019 that the threat of a global pandemic kept him awake at night, and carrying out an alarming simulation of a coronavirus outbreak which suggested as many as 65 million could die within 18 months. The current death toll is 2.06 million.
The billionaire was also at the centre of outlandish conspiracy theories, including one which incorrectly claimed Gates was developing the vaccine with a microchip that would be implanted into the vaccine recipients.
if the elders got the vaxxes then the world is like a ship being steered by an intoxicated captain during a perfect storm.
Or, equally likely, the elders claimed they got the shots early, as a way of inducing others to take the vaccine.
Even if we see photos of an elder supposedly getting the vaccine, we have no way of figuring out what the person really received.
unfortunately you are right there is no evidence proving what they got if the elders are running an elaborate hoax then involving depopulation via vaccine bioweapons then we can expect the next plandemic to come in 2025 this is confirmed by numerous conspiracy theorists that work with me they told me in 2020 that there will be two more plandemics one in 2025 and the next in 2030. I didnt believe them because i thought the collapse would have already happened before these dates and civilization would have ended.
Two friends here (middle class Moscow people) described in great detail how they faked their vaccine, even though by law a camera was pointed at the nurse providing the shot (they called the nurse a “hero”, although obviously she did it for money). If middle class people can fake the shot, surely tycoons can. But I am perturbed by Gates’ cisty face. He can not be that stupid.
The UK royal family seem a bit naive. The king, his ex-sister in law and his daughter-in-law now all have cancer.
I doubt Bourla (Pfizer or BioNtech) and Tedros (WHO) took any. This is based on answers they gave several years ago, though.
We can only hope that Gates and Bliar are as foolish as the royals.
Well, they are ‘talented’, according to Dennis L’s definition.
I have been hanging out with the accelerationist it is nice to take a break from doom. Accerationist or acc for short coming in many flavors I like the acc that want to speed the development of AI/AGI/ASI. I see it as important to develop AI before the money/politicians/military lock it up for their own leaving the people as slaves once again.
The Chinese have speeded up the development of all kinds of industry. This is nicely discussed in a video Dennis found.
This is a link to my comment. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/04/18/the-worlds-economic-myths-are-hitting-limits/comment-page-3/#comment-458548
This is a link to Dennis’s comment with the video link.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/04/18/the-worlds-economic-myths-are-hitting-limits/comment-page-3/#comment-458445
One thing I remember from Turchin and Nefedov’s book, Secular Cycles is that the faster a population grows, the fast the economy is likely to collapse. The eventual problem is always population too high for resources. This happens more quickly if rich men are allowed to marry as many wives as they can afford. Allowing four wives is a reasonable approximation to this. I suppose subsidizing very poor people, so that they can afford families, goes in this direction as well.
I wonder if AI, and speeding up AI implementation, leads to faster collapse as well. More ramped up stock prices, but in not too long they fall to earth.
” One thing I remember from Turchin and Nefedov’s book, Secular Cycles is that the faster a population grows, the fast the economy is likely to collapse. ” .
= simply called OVERSHOOT .
Agreed!
Human history and Spacex in one song.
Cool, don’t understand the SpaceX part at the end. Liked the bronze to iron line.
If SpaceX works, we move many of the problems off earth, if she is referring to junk in space, I am not comfortable with all the low earth satellites; unintended consequences.
Starting to become a believer in electric cars sort of, drive less; make them simple, LEAF has a sort of cult following.
Dennis L.
This is a good song.
China implements austerity measures like budget cuts and frugality campaigns to address economic challenges, redirect resources, and curb unnecessary spending. However, critics question the effectiveness of these measures in resolving long-term economic issues.
Get Used To Living Frugally’: China Asks Officials To Use Own Cup, Travel By Bike
| TIMESOFINDIA.COM | Apr 27, 2024, 11:35 IST
China’s economy is battling a barrage of challenges, including a deepening housing slump, fears of a deflationary spiral and high levels of youth unemployment. As China grapples with a myriad of economic challenges, the government is taking significant steps to tighten its belt, particularly among public officials. Amid concerns of an economic slowdown, soaring debt levels, and faltering consumer confidence, China is now enforcing a frugal lifestyle on its public servants in an effort to redirect resources toward more critical areas of need.
In response to economic distress, characterized by a $2 trillion loss in stock market value since 2022 and debt levels nearing three times the national economic output, Chinese authorities have initiated widespread budget cuts across provincial governments. For instance, the governor of Guizhou province has pledged to slash his administration’s operating expenses by 15%. Similarly, in Hunan, officials are urged to embody the spirit of “red housekeepers,” a term coined to inspire cost-efficient governance that honors the Communist Party’s revolutionary roots, a Wall Street Journal report said.
Drastic measures in everyday governanceThe campaign for frugality has resulted in various stringent measures aimed at curbing unnecessary spending. In Yunnan, for instance, a directive has been issued to set air conditioning thermostats no lower than 26 degrees Celsius (79 degrees Fahrenheit) during summer to save on electricity costs. Meanwhile, in Inner Mongolia, authorities are promoting the repair and reuse of office equipment like desks and chairs instead of purchasing new ones.
……Despite these efforts, some experts, like Christine Wong, a visiting professor at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute, view these measures as largely symbolic.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/get-used-to-living-frugally-china-asks-officials-to-use-own-cup-travel-by-bike/amp_articleshow/109640681.cms
I remember the good old days when it was the norm to own one set of cloths, and owning a bike and radio was being rich in China.. As Klummie would point out..
Chairman Mao was doing BAU a great service in keeping them out of the loop
“China’s economy is battling a barrage of challenges, including a deepening housing slump, fears of a deflationary spiral and high levels of youth unemployment.”
With regards to RE, think I heard a comment made by a Chinese official that homes were for shelter, not investment. Agree.
Dennis L.
I am afraid this is an important shift for the world economy. All of the other countries of the world have been depending on China.
The faster an economy grows, the faster it hits limits. Peak coal is a huge problem for China and the world. This seems to be a sign of a major pullback.
There is the potential for a big debt bubble crash with all of the debt around the world. The advanced economies, plus China, could be affected.
CRE crisis in Europe .
The total value of European commercial property sales also slumped by 26% in the first quarter compared to the prior year, to 34.5 billion euros, the lowest since 2011 and the seventh straight quarter of annual declines.
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/pulled-real-estate-deals-highest-in-europe-since-global-financial-crisis-says-msci-3396600
Yes, deflation in CRE, inflation in everything which went into them original materials. Seems like a challenge to recycle set concrete, etc.
Dennis L.
Commercial real estate maybe what brings down the financial system, at least outside China. In China, it may be the building of homes.
The world has greatly overbuilt. There are a huge number of loans outstanding, many of them held by banks.
Colleges are almost certain to keep closing. As many as one in 10 four-year colleges and universities are in financial peril, the consulting firm EY Parthenon estimates.
https://hechingerreport.org/colleges-are-now-closing-at-a-pace-of-one-a-week-what-happens-to-the-students/
The college problem seems to be excess capacity, too great a cost financially and in time lost by the student not learning a useful skill set.
In the US, simple ability of student to declare bankruptcy would put the solution where it belongs, on predatory lenders. That would also lead to significant staff realignments in colleges.
Were I young, would take engineering as undergrad, then possibly med school. Many of my physicians at Mayo went that way. Head of proton beam is Ph.D., MIT, EE as I recall.
Dennis L.
If I were young I would be an apprentice Shaman, Medicine Man or Witch Doctor….depending on my locale and cultural leaning for after collapse it may be a secure position of status
My recommendations . Chiropractor , osteopath , ayurvedic ( Indian) , Unani (Arabic) medicine , acupressure , acupuncture . Demolition and soil technologist . All industrial areas will have to be demolished and must return to farmland to grow food .
Also add ,palm reading , astrology , tarot cards , numerology , I Ching , seances etc . Desperate people will go all limits for solutions , bogus or not . I know this from practical observations in India . The extent of wealth and following this clique has is unbelievable .
Laughing quietly.
Dennis L.
Poor students:
“So many colleges are folding that some students who moved from one to another have now found that their new school will also close, often with little or no warning. Some of the students at Newbury, when it closed in 2019, had moved there from nearby Mount Ida College, for example, which shut down the year before.”
And a degree from a school that no longer exists is not worth much.
Came across this in zero hedge.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/washingtons-fiscal-mess-irresponsible-unethical-immoral-former-us-comptroller-general
“Mandatory spending as a percentage of the federal budget is another metric. It currently stands at around 73 percent.
Another one is interest as a percentage of the budget, which is close to 15 percent.
For Mr. Walker, it is not only raw numbers but what the trends are displaying, which requires a deep dive into demographics.
“We have an aging society with longer lifespans, relatively fewer workers, supporting more retirees, and a skills gap,” he noted.
Last year, two notable developments happened: a majority of Baby Boomers were at least 65, and the birth rate tumbled to the lowest in a century.”
Personally starting to plan for 2034 as being a irreversible transition point; maybe hoping is a better word.
Opinion is we suffer from a lack of people who can make things. CC experience is based on hands on, for me it works; study it, build a circuit and see it work or not, rewire until it does. Change assumptions on a piece of paper, almost anything can be made to work. Make wrong assumptions on a breadboard and the smoke escapes.
Dennis L.
Actuaries have built a system that can no longer work. Something has to give.
Don’t cry for me Argentina . A taste of collapse .
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/javier-milei-argentina-100-days/
From the report:
Of course, if there isn’t enough to go around, the social welfare plans need to go. This could be an outline of what is ahead for other countries.
“Of course, if there isn’t enough to go around, the social welfare plans need to go. This could be an outline of what is ahead for other countries.”
Prescient.
Dennis L.
Am I reading this right, that annual production (select annual as units) of gas is 38 trillion cubic feet, and of that, shale accounts for 26 trillion, or 68%?
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/res_epg0_r5302_nus_bcfa.htm
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum_a_EPG0_FPD_mmcf_a.htm
excuse me, 28 trillion or 73% according to the last reading
So LNG ships will be heading to the US in a few years?
I guess that depends on what we have to sell in return.
corn?
The last year shown on the first chart is 2021. It is 28 trillion for shale natural gas. Total total natural gas shown for 2021 is 34.5 trillion. Ratio is 81%.
The 34.5 is “Dry production”. The shale amount is likely a gross amount. There can be a big difference.
Perhaps we should be comparing this:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum_a_EPG0_FGS_mmcf_a.htm
to this
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9010us2a.htm
Interesting, gross withdrawals is 32.5 shale / 43.8 total = 74% for 2022, the latest year with both numbers. It seems shale constitutes a similar fraction of total whether looking at gross or dry production. My takeaway is that most natural gas is shale.
Another bank failure:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-failures-begin-again-phillys-republic-first-seized-fdic
A WSJ article says:
https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/regulators-set-to-seize-troubled-philadelphia-bank-republic-first-f138401c
“The Yen Collapse Has Become Disorderly”: Look For A Final, Sharp Decline Before It Hits A Floor
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yen-collapse-has-become-disorderly-look-final-sharp-decline-it-hits-floor
The Japanese Yen has hit a 34 year low to the USD. I remember James Howard Kunstler talk about how Japan would be the first country to go medieval, he might not be too far off if the Yen keeps falling.
I am a little confused about what this article is saying. It ends:
The yen is now at about 158 to the dollar. But this author is still concerned that it would spike even higher (Because people in Japan like all the carry trade, and a low yen makes it easier to sell its exports. Which is why there is no intervention) At the same time, he thinks the yen should come back to 110 to the US dollar.
He does contradict himself a bit, should have read article a little closer. I don’t think the yen will come back to 110 to the U.S. dollar soon.
Poor blacks in US south during 1930s
https://youtu.be/ialLE-fZqB8?si=kf9fR7h1GkWPEky6
‘Middle Class’ blacks in usa during 1930s
https://youtu.be/fHHVWyhAgR4?si=lt1IuVi9m34XyFFS
Poor British during 1930s
https://youtu.be/QqpNcHTG4uM?si=hXxOSOiQ4hx2A1D-
I chose the blacks since they were quite more discriminated back then.
Poor blacks lived better than their equivalents in Europe by the 1930s
Although some Americans will not like that, the World Wars were fought on the expense of Europe and Asia to make the less able people in USA live better.
Was the sacrifice of the world to make the lower class of USA, and Canada to some degree, live well worth it?
In my opinion, no.
We are likely going back to “Most of these houses have no gas, electricity or running water.”
When I have visited historical homes that people have lived in, there were many people in one room. In fact, when I have visited other countries, there are quite a few where many people live in one or two rooms.
Having clean water to drink of the tap is a modern convenience. We cannot expect it to last. In China, India, Russia, and many other places, people expect to drink only boiled water.
Our standards today are distorted by the vast improvements with more fossil fuels.
A fellow named Topper who has a machine shop in Spooner Wisconsin did a podcast in which he claimed that many people living in northern Wisconsin and no to minimal heat in the winter. This was mentioned regarding the depressed economic condition of the area around Spooner and north to Superior.
Machinists are fairly direct in conversation.
Dennis L.
I remember vacationing in Spooner, Wisconsin as a child. It is way up north, and a long ways from the Interstate Highway system. It is hard for vacationers to drive to easily. I can see how it might not do well financially.
Can’t wait for reality to hit those that are cheering the end of fossil fuels. Every modern convenience we take for granted can be traced back to FF’s.
https://m.youtube.com/shorts/jpra8CSpjLs
We want justice, freedom and be heard
Look at Bill Gates. No F*** way!
WOW!
https://twitter.com/unhealthytruth/status/1783897354833191224
What are those lumps on his face. Not looking good.
Yes , Ed . I was going to ask the same question because it reminded me of a cousin who had the same types when he had cancer in the salivary glands . Not looking good .
He could not have taken the vaccine… I am also at a loss. this is something I do not understand.
No. He’s fine. It7s just that as he ages, his shape-shifting reptilian body is having more difficulty maintaining human form.
i’ve begun to think recently that rather than covid-mania being a conspiracy, it was actually just the most extraordinary example of hubris that we’ll ever see, i.e. all these guys did actually take the mRNA shots because they genuinely believed it was the latest, greatest thing. i’ll take the death of someone like Gates or in the UK royal family of turbocancer/other obvious side effects as confirmation of this theory.
“it was actually just the most extraordinary example of hubris that we’ll ever see,”
I think you are right, it is also coupled with a tendency to emphasize the narrative at the expense of the objective which is an abstract way of saying given a certain set of parameters, a repeatable outcome can be expected.
Dennis L.
Well, the NY Post recently discussed the forthcoming funeral of King Charles. I assume they’re sure that it’s terminal cancer, to write about it in that way?
Kate, wife of the heir to the throne has cancer and hasn’t appeared in public for months. Andrew’s ex-wife has cancer.
It strikes me as quite a lot of cancer to have at about the same time in a relatively limited number of people (four royal children, their spouses and their children).
The lumps could be cysts.
Recently, a strange lump appeared out of nowhere on my leg, near my knee. It doesn’t hurt at all, and the skin is the same color as everywhere else. When I first noticed it, it was about 1″ across, but it seems to be down a bit now.
I looked up online to see what it could be and decided it might be a cyst. The female physician I made an appointment with ordered an ultra scan, but that won’t take place for a couple of weeks. (She didn’t offer an opinion on what it was.) Most cysts go away by themselves, with no intervention. I am hoping it goes away by itself, soon. If I had a couple of those on my face, I would look pretty awful.
all of my wife cysts were eliminated by an improved diet.
This is the first time I have had one.
Maybe something he caught on Epstein Island. Maybe something else entirely.