As the world enters 2025, the critical issue we are facing is Peak Crude Oil, relative to population. Crude oil has fallen from as much as .46 gallons per person, which was quite common before the pandemic, to close to .42 gallons per person recently (Figure 1).
People have a misimpression regarding how world peak oil can be expected to behave. The world economy has continued to grow, but now it is beginning to move in the direction of contraction due to an inadequate supply of crude oil. In fact, it is not just an inadequate crude oil supply, but also an inadequate supply of coal (per person) and an inadequate supply of uranium.
We know that when a boat changes direction, this causes turbulence in the water. This is similar to the problems we are currently seeing in the world economy. Physics dictates that the economy needs to shrink in size to match its energy resources, but no country wants to be a part of this shrinkage. This indirectly leads to major changes in elected leadership and to increased interest in war-like behavior. Strangely enough, it also seems to lead to higher long-term interest rates, as well.
In this post, I share a few thoughts on what might lie ahead for us in 2025, in the light of the hidden inadequate world energy supply. I am predicting major turbulence, but not that things fall apart completely. Stock markets will tend to do poorly; interest rates will remain high; oil and other energy prices will stay around current levels, or fall.
[1] I expect that the general trend in 2025 will be toward world recession.
With less oil (and coal and uranium) relative to population, the world can be expected to produce fewer goods and services per person. In some sense, people will generally become poorer. For example, fewer people will be able to afford new cars or new homes.
This trend toward lower purchasing-power tends to be concentrated in certain groups such as young people, farmers, and recent immigrants. As a result, older people who are well-off or firmly established may be able to mostly ignore this issue.
While the shift toward a poorer world has partially been hidden, it has been a huge factor in allowing Donald Trump to be voted back into power. Major shifts in leadership are taking place elsewhere, as well, as an increasing share of citizens become unhappy with the current situation.
[2] Many governments will try to hide recessionary tendencies by issuing more debt to stimulate their economies.
In the past, adding debt was found to be effective way of stimulating the world economy because energy supplies supporting the world economy were not seriously constrained. It was possible to add new energy supplies, quite inexpensively. The combination of additional inexpensive energy supplies and additional “demand” (provided by the added debt) allowed the total quantity of goods and services produced to be increased. Once energy supplies started to become seriously constrained (about 2023), this technique started to work far less well. If energy production is constrained, the likely impact of added debt will be added inflation.
The problem is that if added government debt doesn’t really add inexpensive energy, it will instead create more purchasing power relative to the same number, or a smaller number, of finished goods and services available. I believe that in 2025, we are heading into a situation where ramping up governmental debt will mostly lead to inflation in the cost of finished goods and services.
[3] Energy prices are likely to remain too low for fossil fuel and uranium producers to raise investments from their current low levels.
Recession and low prices tend to go together. While there may be occasional spikes in oil and other energy prices, 2025 is likely to bring oil and other energy prices that are, on average, no higher than those of 2024, adjusted for the overall increase in prices due to inflation. With generally low prices, producers will cut back on new investment. This will cause production to fall further.
[4] I expect “gluts” of many energy-related items in 2025.
Gluts are related to recession and low prices for producers. The underlying problem is that a significant share of the population finds that finished goods, made with energy products and investment at current interest rates, are too expensive to buy.
Even farmers are affected by low prices, just as they were back at the time of the Great Depression. We can think of food as an energy product that is eaten by people. Farmers find that their return on farm investment is too low, and that their implied wages are low. Low income for farmers around the world feeds back through the system as low buying power for new farm equipment, and for buying goods and services in general.
In 2025, I expect there will be a glut of crude oil due to a lack of purchasing power of many poor people around the world. My forecast is similar to the forecast of the IEA that predicts an oversupply of oil in 2025. Also, a December 2024 article in mining.com says, “A glut of coal in China is set to push falling prices even lower.”
Even wind turbines and solar panels can reach an oversupply point. According to one article, number of Chine solar panel builders seems to be far too high for world demand, leading to a potential shake out. As the share of wind and solar power added to the electric grid increases, the frequency of low or negative payment for wholesale electric power increases. This makes adding more wind turbines and solar panels problematic, after a certain point. We don’t yet have a cost-effective way of storing intermittent electricity for months on end. This seems to be part of the reason why there recently were no bidders for producing more offshore wind power in Denmark.
[5] I expect long-term interest rates to remain high. This will be a problem for new investments of all kinds and for governmental borrowing.
In Section 2 of this post, I tried to explain that a peak-oil impact is likely to be inflation. This occurs because ramping up debt to try to stimulate the economy no longer works to get additional cheap energy products from the ground. Instead of getting as many finished goods and services as hoped for, the added debt tends to produce inflation instead.
I believe that we are reaching a stage of fossil-fuel depletion where it is becoming increasingly difficult to ramp up production, even with added investment. Because of the added debt added in an attempt to work around depletion, inflation in the price of finished goods and services can be expected. Investors are beginning to see long-term inflation as a likely problem. As a result, they are starting to demand higher long-term interest rates to compensate for the expected decrease in buying power.
Figure 2 shows that US long-term interest rates have varied widely. There was a period of generally dropping long-term interest rates from 1981 to 2020. Starting in late 2020, interest rates began to rise; in 2023 and 2024 they have been in the 4% to 5% range. These relatively high rates are occurring because lenders are demanding higher long-term interest rates in response to higher inflation rates.
Because of inflationary pressures, I expect that long-term interest rates will tend to stay at today’s high level in 2025; they may even rise further. These continued high interest rates will become a problem for many families wanting to purchase a home because US home mortgage rates rise and fall with US 10-year interest rates. Often families are faced with both high home prices and high interest rates. This combination makes mortgage costs a problem for many families.
Governments are also adversely affected. They tend to hold large amounts of debt that they have accumulated over a period or years. Up until 2020, much of this added debt often was at a very low interest rate. As more long-term debt at higher interest rates is added, annual interest rate payments tend to rise rapidly. This can cause a need to raise taxes. Japan, especially, would be affected by higher interest rates because of its high level of government debt, relative to GDP.
Higher interest rates will also raise costs for citizens trying to finance the purchase of homes, and for investors wanting to build wind turbines or solar panels. In fact, investment in any kind of factory, pipelines, or electricity transmission will tend to become more expensive.
In a sense, we seem to be seeing the peak oil problem shifting in a way that affects interest rates and the economy in general. Either higher interest rates or higher oil prices will tend to push the economy toward recession. We tend to look for rising prices to signal an oil supply problem, but perhaps that only works when there is excessive demand. If the problem is really inadequate oil supply, perhaps we should look for higher long-term interest rates, instead.
[6] Industry around the world is likely to be hit especially hard by recessionary tendencies.
Industry requires investment. Higher interest rates make new industrial investment more expensive. Industry is also a heavy user of energy products. Putting these observations together, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if new industrial investment is one of the first places to be cut back because of peak oil supply.
The original 1972 Limits to Growth analysis, in its base model, suggested that resources would start to run short about now. The variables in this model were recently recalibrated in the article, “Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model.” Based on the detailed data given in the endnotes to the article, I calculated the expected industrialization per capita shown in Figure 3.
Based on Figure 3, this model shows that industrialization per person reached a peak in 2017. Peak industrialization (total, not per capita) occurred in 2018, which coincides with peak crude oil extraction (not per capita).
The model seems to suggest that after an inflection point in 2023 (that is 2024 and after), industrialization will start to fall more steeply. The model shows a decrease in production per capita of 4.1% in 2024 and of 5.3% in 2025. Such decreases would push the world economy toward recession.
The model suggests that people, on average, are getting poorer in terms of the quantity of goods and services they can afford to buy. New cars, motorcycles, and homes are becoming less affordable. Heavily industrialized countries, such as China, South Korea, and Germany are likely to be especially affected by headwinds to industrialization. I expect that the economic problems in these countries will continue and are likely to worsen in 2025.
[7] The US has tried to isolate itself from this nearly worldwide recession. I expect that during 2025, the US will increasingly slip into recession, as well.
There are several reasons for this belief:
(a) The US is heavily dependent upon imports of raw material. China is restricting exports of critical minerals used by the US. This will make it very difficult or impossible to ramp up high tech industries as planned.
(b) The US is heavily dependent on Russia for supplies of enriched uranium. Any plan for added nuclear electricity needs to consider where the uranium to power these plants will come from. It also needs to consider how this uranium will be enriched to the required concentration of uranium-235.
(c) If the US can ramp up crude oil and natural gas production, this can perhaps counter this trend toward US and world recession. Unfortunately, recent US oil supply has not been ramping up; instead its production has been fairly flat. Natural gas production has actually been lower since February 2024. Plans have been made to rapidly ramp up US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, but these plans cannot work if the US natural gas supply is already decreasing.
(d) The US government has had an advantage in borrowing because the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. As such, the US is, in some sense, the first borrower, pulling the rest of the world along. The US, by making its short term interest rates higher than those of many other countries, was able to largely escape recession 2023 and 2024. Additional investment was attracted to the US by these higher interest rates. But the US cannot follow this strategy indefinitely. For one thing, a high US dollar handicaps exports. For another, interest costs on government debt become burdensome.
(e) Donald Trump has plans to close inefficient parts of government. These changes, if enacted, will reduce “demand” within the economy because workers in these sectors will lose their jobs. Over the longer term, these changes might be beneficial, but over the short term, they are likely to be recessionary.
(f) It is difficult for the US to do much better than the rest of the world. If the rest of the world is in recession, the US will tend to head in that direction, as well.
[8] I expect more conflict in 2025, but today’s wars will not look much like World War I or World War II.
Today, not many countries are able to build huge fleets of fighter airplanes. Even building drones and bombs seems to require supply lines that extend around the world. So, instead, wars are being fought in non-military ways, such as with sanctions and tariffs.
I expect that this trend away from direct military conflict will continue, with more novel approaches such as internet interference and stealth damage to infrastructure taking place instead.
I do not expect that nuclear bombs will be used, even when there is direct conflict between powerful adversaries. For one thing, uranium in these bombs is needed for other purposes. For another, there is too much chance of retaliation.
[9] I expect many types of capital gains will be low in 2025.
The situation we are facing now is the opposite of the drop in long-term interest rates observed between 1981 and 2020, in Figure (2), above. This historical drop in interest rates made it possible for businesses to more easily finance new investments. It also made it possible for individual citizens to be able to afford more homes and cars. It should not be surprising that this period has been a time of rising stock market prices, especially in the United States.
The world’s economic problem is that it no longer has the tailwind of falling long-term interest rates. Instead, rising long-term interest rates are becoming a headwind. Home prices are un-affordably high for most potential buyers at today’s interest rates. A similar problem faces those hoping to purchase agricultural equipment and farmland at today’s high prices and high interest rates.
We should not be surprised if home and farm prices stabilize and begin to fall. Prices of shares of stock are likely to encounter similar headwinds. Prices of derivative investments may perform even worse than the shares themselves.
Recently, a great deal of the strength of the US market has been in a few stocks. Artificial Intelligence (AI) needs to very quickly provide a lot of benefit to the stock market as a whole for this to change. I cannot imagine this happening. With the US slipping toward recession, I expect that the US stock market will at best plateau in 2025.
[10] With less energy available and higher interest rates on government debt, I expect to see more government organizations disbanding.
It takes energy, directly and indirectly, to operate any kind of governmental organization. Eliminating governmental organizations is one way of saving energy. This is what happened when the central government of the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. I would think that parallel kinds of changes could start happening in the next few years, in many parts of the world.
At some time, perhaps as soon as 2025, the European Union could collapse. If things are going badly for many member countries, they will be less willing to support the European Union with their tax revenues. Other organizations that seem like they could be in peril include NATO and the World Trade Organization.
In some ways, such shrinkage would be in parallel with Trump’s plan for eliminating unnecessary governmental organizations within the United States. All these organizations require energy; cutting their number would go some way toward reducing crude oil and other energy consumption.
[11] It is possible that the world economy will eventually get itself out of its apparent trend toward recession, but I am afraid this will happen long after 2025.
We know that the world economy tends to operate in cycles. We would like to believe that the apparent current down-cycle is just temporary, but we can’t know this for sure. Physics tells us that we need energy supplies of the right kind for any action that contributes to GDP. Running short of energy supplies is therefore a very worrisome condition.
We also know that there are major inefficiencies in current approaches. For example, oil extraction leaves much of the oil resource in place. In theory, AI could greatly improve extraction techniques.
We also know that uranium consumption is terribly inefficient. M. King Hubbert thought that nuclear energy using uranium had amazing potential, but most of this potential remains untapped. Perhaps AI could help in this regard, also. If nothing else, perhaps recycling spent fuel could be made less expensive and problematic.
We can’t know what lies ahead. There may be a “religious” ending to our current predicament that we are discounting that is actually the “right story.” Or there may be a “technofix” solution that allows us to avert collapse or catastrophe. But for now, how the current down-cycle will end remains a major cause for concern.
The populations that are in overshoot choose the dictators and succumb to them. Like Russians chose Vladimir Putin, Stalin, Lenin etc. Chinese chose Mao Zedong etc. Or Jesus Christ was chosen by many nations.
The call for population control is getring stronger now.
As Elon Musk is missing this fact, he loses his head. He is like Mormons searching for other planets.
Nothing new in the US history.
E.g. the child abuse by the priests or teachers reflects the dark side of population control.
Elon Musk has no place in the finite world.
Good one, MG, to suppress the most prominent urge creates much “sin& and “evil” in the human condition
How ironic it unfolds in the priesthood
Elon totally misses the finite nature of planet Earth. It is disturbing that someone so smart in some ways is so blind in other ways.
“totally misses the finite nature of planet Earth.”
I don’t think so. The limits of Earth is why he wants to move to Mars.
Someone should point out the limits of Mars are exactly why Earth is infinitely better. Of course Eeyore and his paymasters know this and the show is just cover for the real purpose, as no one is going to Mars, ever.
“no one is going to Mars, ever.”
I am not a fan of trying to inhabit planetary surfaces. If you want to stay in human biological form, spinning O’Neill cylinders are much nicer.
But to make such a statement is to invite being shown as silly, like “In 1903, the New York Times published an editorial titled “Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly” that incorrectly predicted it would take millions of years for humans to develop a flying machine. ”
Of course, if you want to be shown as silly, that’s your option.
as i understand it, by 1903 the wright brothers had already worked out the physical laws of powered flight.
there is no ”alternative biological form”
we are either alive as we are—or dead—not frozen or uploaded.
the wright brothers flew on air
mars has no air, just lots and lots of rock.
in order to self-support, life must have purpose above and beyond national pride and accomplishment,—–mars-life would be purpose-less and thus point-less.
“we are either alive as we are—or dead—not frozen ”
^^^^
World usage data is hard to come by but it was reported in a study of 23 countries that almost 42,000 frozen human embryo transfers were performed during 2001 in Europe.[7]
^^^^
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embryo_cryopreservation#Prevalence
you forgot frozen animal embryos too—horses, cattle etc
that really is stretching the point
“mars has no air,”
Ah . . . . Have you seen any of the science news about Mars in the last 3 years?
Ingenuity, nicknamed Ginny, is an autonomous NASA helicopter that operated on Mars from 2021 to 2024 as part of the Mars 2020 mission. Ingenuity made its first flight on 19 April 2021, demonstrating that flight is possible in the extremely thin atmosphere of Mars, and becoming the first aircraft to conduct a powered and controlled extra-terrestrial flight.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingenuity_(helicopter)
Even if I thought settling Mars was a good idea, providing Mars with an Earth-like atmosphere and a magnetic field to keep solar UV from stripping away the atmosphere is too far into the future to be a concern. But I know several people who have spent considerable effort figuring out how to do that.
Keith, you appear to have things back to front. Over 99% of all ideas go nowhere, so this claim from Eeyore, like 99% of all his claims falls in the realm of unicorns, much like almost everything you claim. Can you see the pattern?
Have a think about it and get back to me when they thaw you out.
“like 99% of all his claims ”
Musk has delivered on a long list, Falcon 1, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, reusing by landing, Starlink, StarShip, catching the booster.
Given his track record, do you think it is a smart move to bet against him?
Mind you, I don’t think going to Mars is a good idea compared to space colonies.
” like almost everything you claim”
That should make it easy for you to post an example of a false claim I have made. I don’t think you can do it. I don’t think, for example, that any of the thousands of cryonics people have ever claimed it was a sure thing.
“and get back to me”
Will do. Let me know where you are going to be buried so I can dance on your grave.
🙂
through a quirk of commerce. Musk has accumulated more value in assets than anyone has previously managed—someone had to… Musk got lucky.
these are not physical assetts, only the trading value that investors put on them btw
That said, he is now blowing those assets on fireworks—for no better reason than he can.
he uses his money to buy the best scientific brains to manipulate known mechanisms to assist in rocket flight, rocket recovery, and so on.
this profitable—for him—because it puts satellites up cheaply.
we are likely, in the future to see use stellite technolgly in adverse ways, in which case there will be satellite wars–shooting them down etc.—we dont know where that will lead.
what he has not done, and cannot do, is devise a new method of getting ”off earth”—he is therefore using the same reactive combustion methods as the chinese did 1000 years ago.
he has to bring back more profit for humankind in general, before we can consider his enterprises successful
until then, much of it is a vanity project.
Keith, you have listed a few things that are at best slight improvements, that don’t really get us any closer to the pointless goal of going to a dead place.
Now take away all the subsidies and where would Eeyore be?
Skint, along with all those that believe his sales pitch.
As for dancing on my grave, I’ve long asked my daughter to attach weights and chuck the carcass in the river. Maybe Eeyore can teach you how to dance on water. Do me a favour and play this when you do.
https://youtu.be/vjncyiuwwXQ?feature=shared
“asked my daughter to attach weights and chuck the carcass in the river.”
If she does what you ask, she will do jail time for improper disposal of a body.
‘Even if I thought settling Mars was a good idea, providing Mars with an Earth-like atmosphere and a magnetic field to keep solar UV from stripping away the atmosphere is too far into the future to be a concern.’
It would take many millions of years for solar wind to strip away a terraformed Martian atmosphere. Building an artificial magnetosphere isn’t something that needs to be done quickly.
Building a breathable atmosphere is not a near term project. But building a thick CO2 dominated atmosphere could be done in decades, using nanorods to warm the Martian climate.
I still don’t think Mars colonisation is a good idea in the near term. I cannot see the business case that would make it financially sustainable. Using lunar resources to build SPS at least provides something that we can sell that is valuable to Earth based customers. Mars doesn’t seem to offer anything comparable.
Agree with you on all points.
The people who are concerned about a thick Martian atmosphere think really long term. Too long for me.
No human will ever land on Mars. There are no resources for such stunts any more.
lol time again keith
musk’s wealth is earth-bound
it derived from the nature of humankind—ie, to move stuff around in quantity and pay each other wages in the process of doing so. (thats how wages are derived, in the main).
that also requires infinite expansion using infinite energy btw.
on mars, nothing moves, and no means exists to make it otherwise.
its possible that a very small expedition might get there—but, like the moon, there will be no purpose to it, so it will peter out into nothingness, a self deluding, interesting, pipedream—which is why there are no moon colonies now.
any expedition there will suck in vast earth resources to do it, resources that earth itself is running out of, and mars has no fungible resources—ie nothing that will burn and thus render into cash and physical profit.
look around you now—you possess little or nothing that has not been produced by heat input of some kind.
if you check musk’s assets, they are all dependent on setting fire to finite resources.
musk is not unique in that respect, the entire usage of earth-resource for all of us ultimately depends on combustion, and there are no ”alternatives”—we are not going to morph ourselves into a plane of ethereal being, or freeze ourselves into an all welcoming utopian future, or have our existence supported by nanobots—despite the calculations of learned folks like yourself.
some people recognise reality, musk does no appear to be among them.
Colonising Mars is unrealistic in the short to medium term.
The problems aren’t so much technological as they are economic. Mars colonies won’t really have very much that they can sell to people back on Earth. It will cost trillions of dollars to establish colonies on Mars. No one spends that much without an assured return on investment. Where does the return come from for a Mars colony? What is it going to make or do that is readily marketable to people back on Earth?
Answering scientifically interesting questions about extraterrestrial life don’t really constitute solid economic returns. We need something tangeable that can be measured in dollars. Some people have tried to make the argument that intellectual property developed by Martian colonists could be marketable. I don’t doubt that. But I really can’t see these people being able to develop things at a rate much greater than people back on Earth. It isn’t as if moving to Mars will make them dramatically more productive. So their IP won’t generate enough money to justify the enormous cost of establishing and maintaining colonies.
There are practical concerns as well. Living on Mars sounds like an adventure to a lot of people. But in reality, it means living underground in confined conditions and going without a lot of stuff. Diet will be limited. I think people will quickly get pissed off with it as soon as the novelty wears off.
“readily marketable to people back on Earth?”
Keep in mind that I am not a fan of colonizing Mars.
The people who promote Mars talk about selling real estate. I kind of scoffed at them until I remembered there was a place now called Golden Valley https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Valley,_Arizona west of Kingman, AZ. I first saw this area in 1964. It was desert as bleak as the surface of Mars. People were sold plots of land and the area, in spite of little water, eventually (60 years) gained a substantial population.
So perhaps land on Mars can be sold. Want a chunk of Mars? $10 down and $10/month.
as bleak as the surface of mars—lol
except for air
Mars has a land area of 144 million square km. There are 250 acres in 1km2. If a colony could sell land on Mars for $100/kg, then the land asset value of Mars would be $3.6tn. So land ownership could be a potential export worth considering.
Due to its low gravity and thin atmosphere, Mars and Mars orbit could be a centre for space manufacturing in the way that Gerard O’Neill envisaged high Earth orbital manufacturing supported by lunar resources. It is logistically more difficult to transport people and equipment from Earth to Mars and Mars orbit, compared to high Earth orbit and the lunar surface. But Mars has a greater abundance of elements than the moon.
Maybe it could work? Could we build SPS in Mars orbit and use reaction engines to ship it to GEO? Phobos and Deimos could be used as bulk sources of reaction mass and raw material for space manufacturing.
‘as bleak as the surface of mars—lol
except for air’
Norm, Mars does have air. It’s atmosphere is 95% CO2, with the other 5% being a mixture of argon and nitrogen. Whilst we cannot breath it, it is chemically quite simple to manufacture breathable air from the Martian atmosphere. Humans need about 0.8kg of oxygen per day under light work conditions. Making that much oxygen requires an energy consumption of 3.5kWh/capita per day.
So air won’t be the biggest problem. Growing food will be the biggest challenge. The cold is probably the biggest single complication. Mars is as cold as Antarctica. Radiation doserates on the surface are higher than in most places on Earth – about 25REM per year. If people were to live their entire lives exposed to that 24/7, it would knock about a decade off of life expectancy assuming LNT. My guess is that most living space will be underground. People could work above ground, but exposure will need to be limited to something like 2000 hours per year.
air in the earth context is the stuff we breathe and live by—we dont have to carry it around on our backs.
what you are describing for mars is atmosphere—not the same thing—jupiter has atmosphere, as does venus—try sucking those in.
mars atmosphere is i think much colder than antarctica, and it is very very thin
money is tokenised energy
therefore, financing any trip to mars or elsewhere must eventually be repaid in a greater amount of tokenised energy than the trip cost in the first place. (that rule cannot be broken)—
if not—-
then the trip will be nothing other than a glorified vacation.
which is what the moon landings were—and why no one has been back since
we all know that Stalin failed spectacularly at that, since he presided over the largest population increase in Russian/soviet history. The same with Mao, of course, although the percentage increase was much smaller.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/microreactor Two Nuclear Microreactors Reach Milestone
Westinghouse and Radiant are developing some of the world’s smallest reactors
If many “self-made” entrepreneurs are fronts for the MIC, why couldn’t these reactors be existing technology (eg. nuclear sub reactors) brought to the consumer? It would be rational, albeit in a greedy way, to just bring out technology as necessary while extending existing paradigms that suit the owners of capital.
Part of me wonders whether not all the MIC money was wasted.
Being brought to the consumer, without the necessary uranium to operate them.
Absolutely nothing is solved by making reactors smaller. Quite the opposite.
“Quite the opposite.”
Correct. Building small reactors is simple, i.e., the ones used in subs, but you have to fuel them with higher enriched U 235.
The problem is neutron economy, the fire goes out if it is too small.
I mean it’s far less efficient to have numerous small reactors than one big one, even if the enrichment level was the same.
The extra enrichment needed is a whole other problem, as is the lack of available uranium. None of these things will be built.
“far less efficient to have numerous small reactors than one big one, even if the enrichment level was the same.”
That is correct. The engineering reason is that the neutrons are generated in a volume and they escape through the surface. Classic surface to volume ratio which is why small animals have more of a problem staying warm.
“The extra enrichment needed is a whole other problem, as is the lack of available uranium.”
Again correct,
” None of these things will be built.”
Submarine reactors were and are built. They ranged down to 5 MW and up to at least 220 MW. The one that mentions fuel says HEU 93.5% which is bomb grade.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seawolf-class_submarine
If you are talking about commercial use, you are likely right but I don’t think it is certain, just not likely.
For fast or epithermal spectrum MSRs the neutron economy problem is a little easier, as fuel volume fraction is close to 100%. That means mean free path for neutrons is shorter. But a larger core will always be more efficient.
“a larger core will always be more efficient.”
Yep.
I am not a big fan of fission, but it does work. Solar power from space looks like it will cost less, but it has not been done yet.
China plans to build ‘Three Gorges dam in space’ to harness solar power | South China Morning Post
The article is paywalled, but this has been discussed in China for a couple of decades. It will only make economic sense when China builds a copy of the SpaceX StarShip and maybe not even then.
I’m not talking about neutrons. I’m talking about simple logistics.
Dear Gail
This is a bit off topic but I would appreciate your opinion as an actuary and therefore someone who knows how insurance works. We have all been watching the Los Angeles disaster unfold over the past week. It seems like we need new insurance business models to avoid major cities and regions collapsing. Is this possible. I know there are catastrophe bonds, re-insurance that can widen the risk pool internationally, parametric models, and perhaps more requirements to have owners comply with fire, earthquake, storm, and flood mitigation designs. Or are we going to get the problem pushed onto governments that lack the knowledge to deal with risk? What happens if the mortgage and insurance paradigm fails?
As a practical matter, insurance companies are relatively small compared to the cost of many kinds of damages. Most costs are picked up by governments and large corporations self-insuring.
It is homeowners and small businesses mostly affected. Insurance prices become very political.
Gail, I have a non obvious solution that a small team and I have been developing for years. I live rurally in BC, and have been very concerned about wildfires and insurance in recent years. I was a volunteer firefighter, which is important in this context.
I had intended to work on the delivery for a few more months, BUT with the LA fires now in the news, I believe it is important to move.
Themes include prevention, trust, localization, insurance (affordability and availability), communications, masculinity
I have described it as Rural Living-Insurance Initiative, designed to return cohesiveness to small communities in order to weather challenging times, and especially emergencies.
Historically, many small communities formed their own insurance cooperatives or mutual companies. Of course, this doesn’t work if the whole city gets burned down.
That would be the worst case scenario, and is included as an outcome. Expectations need to align with our new economic and thermodynamic reality. That is a core concept.
Localism is essential. But, that has been mostly removed by the internet and TV. Most people no longer spend their free time being a part of their town or neighbourhood. Instead, they spend it entirely online or watching television, and agency is lost.
Paths back to realistic outcomes need to be explored.
But, Im curious about when towns were able to form their own insurance cooperatives. I suspect this was before 1970.
Small tight communities where people helped each other have been degraded by the emergence of energy, technology, and debt, i.e., “modern conveniences” over the generations. People haven’t had to be so reliant on their neighbors. Central government has taken care of that. But this will eventually start to unwind, I think, as people will have to fall back to smaller communities, consolidate into multigenerational households, and relearn the hard realities of self sufficiency.
I have come up with a solution for the recent LA fires: we should bomb them into submission. We have the greatest military the world has ever seen and it is time to put it to use.
In a country where are more lawyers than doctors . The hyenas are sharpening their claws .
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/inferno-plagued-palisades-braces-santa-ana-windstorm-death-toll-rises
No need for explaining .
ALWAYS LOS ANGELES
January 13, 2025 , Written by Patrick REYMOND
Unlike Nicolas (Bonnal), I do not believe in an intervention to liquidate Los Angeles.
I simply believe in imperial developments which mean that, year after year, everything relaxes, and one day, we have the conjunction of all these multiple relaxations combined, which cause the great catastrophe.
– The firefighters’ budget is reduced,
– the number of their interventions which has increased by 55% since 2010, while their numbers are decreasing,
– the wokeness that makes promotions that no longer hide the fact that they are sofas, and only sofas,
– DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) or promotions of incompetent and illiterate but politically correct, women are clearly less strong than men for firefighter positions? No matter, we lower the standards. Black graduates are often so because of better grades? They get ahead, being, despite their higher education diplomas, functionally illiterate. The few who actually succeed are devalued. Indeed, as Trump says, globally, we appoint the incompetent, provided they are “diversity”.
– The population is not innocent either: all the regulations are far from being applied, in particular the clearing of brush from houses, in favor of a largely pyrophilic “greenery”, but which we are satisfied with like good Zécolos.
– Political authorities who have a taste for flying, and who logically, are never there when disaster strikes. And for whom, ultimately, the local is difficult to manage.
– A city or rather a conurbation that has grown from 9 to 18 million inhabitants, and whose surface area has increased by 2, 3, 4 or 5? In reality, we can’t even see its limits and so it has become largely unmanageable.
– Of course, more firefighters would have been needed, but was that possible? Certainly not.
– Firefighting equipment, moreover, had been delivered to Ukraine, by the city…
– Malibu was shaped by fires, which allowed the richest to settle there, without worrying about fires. ” In poor countries , the forest is more inhabited and maintained to prevent fires. Conversely, the richest who live in regions like California live there a bit like tourists visiting a country. They occupy it, but they don’t take care of it . ” As I have often said, in ancient and rural societies, not a piece of fallen wood was left on the ground.
In fact, for the small-time millionaire crooks of California, usually in the media, this could sound like the death knell. The event that marks the beginning of decline and downgrading.
As Gail Tverberg said, there is a need for simplification. And a gigantic fire, in an unmanageable city, will certainly produce a great simplification.
Morality? The city of Los Angeles and its conurbation is a gigantic fire pit, which has, constantly, for decades, by accelerating in the last fifteen years, reinforced its fire potential. We can also note the responsibility of the ordinary inhabitant and his negligence for the people they elect, and for their laissez-faire and slovenliness, for the management of fires. It does not concern ONLY the firefighters. Looking at “homes in danger”, it is taken into account, but never in megalopolises.
As the Chinese Mandate of Heaven says, “major natural disasters” never are, it is the result of all the small mistakes associated and accumulated, which indicate the time for regime change.
One of the problems insurers are encountering is the huge accumulation of values insured, especially in picturesque locations.
Another problem is building right into forested areas, especially if small fires are not allowed to take place, to keep the underbrush down.
In years past, homes were much simpler. They were more easily rebuilt, if there was a problem. People knew that fires often take place, but they lived with it. If they could get themselves out of harms way, perhaps that would be sufficient.
from casual observation, a very large proprtion of homes in the usa/canada are constructed, in basic form, of oil and wood, especially outside city centres anyway.
Wood or plastic sidings, ashphalt shingles on wooden roofs, wood framing–and so on,
they are, in effect tinderboxes.—if one catches fire, it will jump to the next one, especially in high wind.
i may be missing something, but why the surprise at what’s happened?
putting those houses in woodland situations, seems to be asking for trouble.
30% rise in bankruptcies .
https://nltimes.nl/2025/01/13/30-bankruptcies-netherlands-last-year
The construction of new houses , buildings and roads is a big problem in the last few years , . Too many thresholds and environmental issue which keep the handbrake on . Also no more permissions are given because there is not enough infra for electricity which can take up to 10 years ,. Critical sectors like hospitals etc stand first in line ,
Architects have no orders as there is no downstream in the whole construction sector .
The govt was too generous during the pandemic and now the companies are having a problem paying back the special loans and subsidies and tax breaks .
Many victims in the hotel and restraunt business . They have to cope with fallen interest of the young take it east generation at the same time when rent , wages are increasing . Real massacre in the small and medium size business .
My local bar has increased the price to Eur 3.60 for a 200 ml glass in a small town pub . Getting drunk will cost you a fortune today .
Time to take my single malt at least I can afford that when I stay home .
” Received from my friend in NL ” . Real stuff .
How an elevator crisis could dismantle cities . Kurt Cobb .
https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2025/01/elevator-crisis-as-symptom-of-our.html
Zelensky says Kyiv ready to send firefighters to California
“Ukraine is preparing to send rescuers, including 150 firefighters, to the U.S. state of California to help combat the wildfires that have devastated the region in recent days, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Jan. 12.”
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainians-can-help-americans-protect-lives-zelensky-says-kyiv-ready-to-send-firefighters-to-california/
Really? With what equipment?
I doubt that… no one would ever come back
We should never forget that Zelensky previous job was comic actor.
“previous job was comic actor.”
Seriously I can think of nothing better for a person in his place.
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This article seems to have an English option. Its title is
A geoeconomic tsunami
The reorganisation of the world economy is in full swing. To survive, not only companies but entire nations need to adapt their development models
.
It ends:
The article talks about historical over reliance of Germany on Russian energy, but it neglects the overall problem of “not enough to go around.” There will have to be some way of getting along with much less energy for the world as a whole. We don’t understand how this will work out.
“Saudi Arabia plans to enrich and sell uranium: Energy minister ”
Does Saudi Arabia have uranium in its lands, or it needs to buy, enrich and sell it?
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2025/01/13/saudi-arabia-plans-to-enrich-and-sell-uranium-energy-minister
Maybe they will use intermittent energy to operate the centrifuges (I doubt it is possible)? Or more likely, it is an excuse to proliferate.
Does anyone know anything more about this. I am not aware of Saudi Arabia having uranium available to it. There seem to be a number of articles like this.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/revealed-saudi-arabia-may-have-enough-uranium-ore-to-produce-nuclear-fuel
“An ‘Iron Dome’ to stop wildfires: Israeli startup’s ‘FireDome’ is based on missile defense.
System shoots capsules of eco-friendly fire retardant to create barrier; detects and extinguishes blazes; set for testing in Israel in May, and the US in 2026.
In 2026, the Tel Aviv-based startup aims to start pilot sites of the system in the US, targeting the Los Angeles and San Francisco areas.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-startup-takes-inspiration-from-iron-dome-for-system-to-stop-wildfires/
I am all about fighting wildfires. Accordingly, I am very interested in articles like this.
However, this article has red flags all over it. That said, I’m curious enough to keep watch.
Business will be brisk! But honestly, unless the capsules are a few tons each, this will not work. I lived in CA myself, and have seen fire operations. It involves huge airplanes carrying huge buckets of water.
I didn’t want to be the one to spell out what they are probably doing here. I have theories.
It’s a nice secluded canyon with multimillion dollar homes you have there. You would not want something bad to happen to it, do you?
Sounds like wishful thinking, I agree.
We shouldn’t be surprised:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mainstream-media-ignoring-ethno-religious-genocide-under-syrias-new-rulers
Mainstream Western media previously wrote several puff pieces on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its US-designated terror leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani in the wake of Assad’s ouster, but now that same media is completely ignoring the atrocities taking place under Jolani’s watch.
Various armed allied groups of HTS are rampaging through the central and northern countryside, attacking Christians and Alawites, in a developing ethno-religious genocide. It has only been one month since Assad was overthrown.
In Gaza, Christian Churches and Christian places have been bombarded.
The new shape of the Middle East has completely forgotten to take care of Christians.
We have supported only two sides in that area, that was done in order to obtain ‘our objectives’ in the Middleast, but paradoxically we have helped to destroy Christian presence in the place where it was born.
And ‘we’ claim to be Christians…
Also Tucker Carlson touched this point in one of his latest interview.
“He may be a head-chopper, but he’s OUR head-chopper.”
A world without philosophy will look like a typical Asian city, with more advanced gadgets, no soul and no compassion whatsoever.
But without philosophy there is no ‘manual’ for growth, and as China’s problems are demonstrating now, it does become a cancerous growth which ends with consuming everything around.
Remarkable.
China’s systematic development of solar power satellites is crucial for the human race. China’s development of AI with Deepseek is keeping AI open for humankind.
They are ‘creating’ zombie AIs, the only kind of AI they are capable of creating.
It’s not only philosophy. We have to all hold hands and sing koumbaya within the whatshisname line, and economic growth will return.
The Hajnal Line.
It is hard to see that this will do much good, but it adds positive PR.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nato-sends-two-ships-guard-baltic-sea-infrastructure-russian-hybrid-warfare
NATO Sends Two Ships To Guard Baltic Sea Infrastructure From Russian ‘Hybrid Warfare’
Purely symbolic.
No mentioning the elephant in the room (Nordstream)…
It boggles my mind. We (the intelligence-community) know who blew it up. And they are not arrested or held accountable.
Strange world!
What if the overpopulation monster, at least in China, was actually a paper dragon?
IOW, what if the Chinese pop wasn’t ~1.4B, but 900M or even 700M?
Then they would be nearly twice as productive per capita and impressive as we thought.
ivan that is not surprising. 20 extra iq points does that.
Maybe? But it seems like very little inventiveness happens with it. Those IQ points are directed at reverse engineering. After that, its assembly lines all the way down.
Further… they seem to be making huge errors in their society. Why is that? It certainly doesn’t seem very smart. Could it be that, the testing they do aligns with the course material?
Or, posed in a different way; do Chinese people (people in China) have any fun after work?
But still over twice as densely-populated as the USA I think and according to James Kunstler’s 2005 ‘Long Emergency’ book they have almost no oil resources. The USA is a lucky country in that respect.
I don’t think that we really know China’s population. I ran into quite a few young people from outlying areas with siblings. Of course, these young people were from well-off families.
Rules seemed to be enforced differently, in different places at different times. Also, the number of children seems to depend on the economic conditions. With costs of housing in cities as high as they are now, young people don’t want children, regardless of whether the government encourages it or not.
A good comment on the Greenland issue .
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/forums/topic/debt-rattle-january-11-2025/#post-179064
As long as there was enough readily accessible natural resources for the rest of the world, Greenland could afford to be “independent” (i..e., bascially ignored), not belonging to the EU but enjoying vicariously the “defense” afforded by being part of Denmark. Of course, Greenland didn’t need any defense at the time so that argument was also BS.
Bottom line, like a pack of wolves, other material and energy starved countries are eyeing Greenland differently now. The carcass of Middle East oil has been nearly picked clean.
as the endgame—-people and nations will kill to survive
history confirms that
We are in perfect harmony on this subject.
pity more can’t follow the music—-we could cut a gold disc
Hopefully at a studio in L.A.
I suppose a war in the Arctic is still better than a war near densely populated areas.
always good to know it wont spill south
and will only upset the inuit and polar bears
If Europe were serious then it would just give Greenland to USA.
Europe wants USA to ‘protect’ it but it is not willing to give USA the basis to do so. USA has to be able to compete in latent power (economy and particular the industrial/ military base) and it needs energy and other resources like rare earth minerals like those on Greenland to do that.
You would not believe the extent that Europeans live in an imaginary world in which whatever they want to be the case is the case. They would take USA down with their psychology. The European ‘plebs’ should never be allowed anywhere near decision making but they are all that Europe has left now.
In European world, USA is still an unmatched hegemon that could take all-comers and USA does not need the resources of Greenland. What it really needs is a firm Green agenda to constrain the economy. It all just magically works out in the imaginary European world.
And USA ‘just ought’ to ‘protect’ them in European world, not because of any benefit to USA but ‘just cuz’. And Denmark has a ‘right’ to Greenland – completely imaginary stuff. ‘Whoever grabbed it off someone else first gets to keep it’ does not really make sense. They constantly falsify reality into a ‘moral’ narrative in which they get what they want because it ‘ought’ to be the case.
But it goes way beyond that. You only have to look at the complete nonsense that they write – and believe – about the war in Ukraine. Anything that they do not want to happen does not happen in European world. They are total ‘head in the sand’ types who want reality to be denied and fabricated whenever it does not suit them.
You have to mix with them on forums to see what they are really like. Europeans really are complete idiots now and USA would do well to just realise the extent of their silliness and to just do whatever suits the USA. You should see the nasty stuff that they are saying about Trump and USA right now.
USA needs to get used to telling European to STFU and do what we say – or that is the position that they will take with USA. They seem to think that they are in a position to tell USA what is what in their imaginary European world. Europeans are a complete disaster now and Europe probably needs to be cut loose.
“You would not believe the extent that Europeans live in an imaginary world in which whatever they want to be the case is the case.”
Many people in the US also believe a huge share of the “information” that the media put out. Wishful thinking is very widespread. We don’t need a god, if we can believe the stories that the media tells us.
99% of humans on this planet believe that if you just get the right non-corrupt politician non-evil greedy people you will have a better standard of living and everyone will live happily ever after. the public delusion of authoritative god is deeply ingrained in the human psyche
Or perhaps the authoritative god doesn’t do what we humans expect and want.
Overall, I agree with this opinion, and I expect Kulm will too.
I agree with most of these except the same standards have to apply with Britain, who still acts as if USA owes something to it.
And UK should have returned Iceland back to Denmark after WW2 was over.
I don’t disagree but the Europeans you are talking about were installed as puppets by the US itself. They are often unelected. Of course they are idiots. If they were not they would not have been handpicked.The stronger European leaders were either fired or died young. And the moment Europe is cut loose you will see the second coming of better leaders.
What Trump actually wants is privilaged access to Greenland for US mining companies, as well as naval bases to assert NATO control over the Arctic. Threatening to annex Greenland is his way of turning up the pressure on the Danes. I don’t think he seriously intends to use military force. But I don’t think he needs to. With the implied threat, he has leverage in negotiations. Meaning he will probably get what he really wants.
It is worth noting that Greenland has a lot of uranium and a lot of oil. Local law prohibits mining of either. So an implied threat is needed to force the government to change law and allow access to these resources. This is what used to be called Realpolitik.
What is a lot of oil?? And how cheap is it to get to? Colorado has “a lot of oil”
Cascade?
Per Copilot, appears to link to:
https://www.simplyinsurance.com/homeowners-insurance-statistics/
“There are approximately 80 million homeowners in the United States, and about 95% of them have homeowners insurance. This means around 76 million homeowners are insured.
To find the per capita insured cost to cover a $100 billion loss, we divide the total loss by the number of insured homeowners: $100B/76B =1315.79
So, the per capita insured cost for covered US homeowners to cover a $100 billion loss would be approximately $1,315.79”
If this is correct, this is for all homeowners, it is an evenly applied average. An additional $100+ per month for some will be crushing. Pay the mortgage, forget the insurance, lose the insurance, lose the mortgage. How does this affect holders of the mortgage debt when the underlying asset is worth less by the increase in insurance payments per month? Who will purchase these homes if the costs with insurance is that high? I made an assumption on the insured loss, it will vary.
Looks like deflation, underlying “stuff” is not worth as much as overlying liabilities tied to that “stuff.” Underlying problem, they didn’t cut the brush in an effort to be “au naturel.” Fire is very natural, some homes were in the way of nature, nature bats last so they say. People lost their homes, the roof over their heads. It is more horrible for a man, it is our job to provide roofs real and metaphorical for families.
Dennis L.
The loss of $150 billion is almost entirely for problems other than homeowners claims. It includes lost wages and lost revenue of businesses, and damages to government owned structures. I saw one estimate claiming that of the $150 billion loss estimate, only $10 billion was insured. I would imagine that, of that $10 billion insured, only $5 billion (or so) would be homeowners, since commercial policies would be affected to a significant extent.
Gee whiz numbers are put out all of the time regarding how much of catastrophe losses are covered by the insurance industry. Quite a bit of what is covered by the insurance industry is, in fact, picked up by “catastrophe bonds,” which originates outside of the insurance industry. A big part of the increase in insurance charges recently seems to have come about because the catastrophe insurers are charging a whole lot more for their coverage. This coverage may, in fact, be being picked up in the catastrophe bond market.
Governments have traditionally picked up most of catastrophe losses, since a lot of the damage is to infrastructure, like power lines. Perhaps the percentage is lower with fires than hurricanes, but the issue is still there. If the government cannot pay, no one can pay.
I think the end cost will be 1 trillion. Also what about utilities? A lot of energy companies have been saying for some time now that they can’t get enough insurance for supplying energy needs.
“can’t get enough insurance”
I could be wrong here, but I think all the lareg power companies self insure.
I think you are wrong because my utility company sent out a notice that they need the government to insure or at least share the burden or pass expenses on to end user. What utility company could self insure for 10 billion dollars????
How could they self insure? They don’t make nearly enough money.
Charles Hugh Smith on “Is the world becoming uninsurable?” (I would point out that insurance companies are quite small in relationship to the problems we face. It always has been other organizations (governments and business entities themselves) that have picked up most of this risk.)
https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/is-the-world-becoming-uninsurable
CHS points out that homeowners rates are becoming inadequate in many states. I would point out that reinsurers have greatly been increasing rates (higher interest rates harm them, also need for higher aggregates because of building in fire and hurricane prone areas). This affects the loss ratios, shown because they take a bigger share of the premium. Also, insurance departments have tended to hold down rates, even when rate increases are requested. The underlying problem may be higher interest rates as much as anything else, but what we read in the press will always be “climate change.”
The truth is most of the people who lost their mansions in this fire have multiple houses
This is precisely the type of article I an looking for right now. That and CHS “Is the world becoming uninsurable?” are spelling out what is happening.
People are about to go into the hell of worry because the system inputs are no longer keeping up with the bought and paid for outputs.
Glad you included the link! Made my day.
Looking ahead for US.
1. Our greatest challenge is social, material aspects could be very good for the near future.
2. Resources: Well, Greenland only has a population of 70K, getting military to it is much easier for US than others. Is it rich in resources? If so, 51st state seems reasonable.
3. Central America, South American seem to have been complicit in much of the migration north. Well, seems the US has migrated south before with military; oil problem solved, Venezuela. Mexico has been solved before, drug cartels would be easy exercises for special forces; those guys are easily bored.
4. Canada has sent most/much of its military stuff to Ukraine to be blown up in a Keynesian exercise in demand creation for US military manufactures. It is also a source of southern migration into US, northern migration seems a possibility, 52 state?
5. Russia has a very significant demographic issue. They have “won” Ukraine, but they have lost perhaps 100K young men plus the wounded. Was in the VA for a while, a center, modern battlefield wounds don’t heal, stuff is missing. Tongue in cheek, Russian will export young women, no young men at home. Young women look for young men, biology, always biology.
6. Europe has been a battlefield forever, no resources and demographically a wasteland. Side benefit, no more horrible French philosophers, maybe even no more French to learn in college. Satre, no great loss.
7. The US is starting to have a monopoly on space, Starship 7 is launching soon, supposed to have something in the cargo bay and perhaps another catch of the booster. Can’t forget that cubic mile of Pt.
8. Trump no matter what your thoughts wants to be seen as a great man in history. He has a beautiful wife, a great looking youngest son and obviously an adequate home in FL. With all his wives, I think he has the woman thing down; one problem behind him. Have to smile at Melania: born in Slovenia, became a fashion model in US, made a good guess on Don, First Lady in 2017, small house in FL until 2025. New house comes with servants, a reasonable jet fleet, helicopters and a ground fleet of vehicles with chauffeurs. I don’t think she has to do housework, don’t forget, great looking son(that is evidence of a good choice). He wants to make American Great Again. What American can reasonably argue with that? I would rather have a good America than a failure. Hey, money, power, beautiful wives, children; he has done well no matter what your emotional concerns. Now, time to do well for America.
So, things could look very, very good for the US, we still have our moats, Pacific and Atlantic.
When I get time going to listen to Steve Keen, I think his ideas are right on classical economics, perhaps he has some good ideas going forward. Economically and financially things seem to be moving very fast.
https://www.youtube.com/@ProfSteveKeen
There is always a silver lining; Pt is a silvery-white metal, close enough.
Dennis L.
it is not worth Trump absorbing Canada as we would water down the Republican vote. A better solution would be to force democratic states to join Canada.
Trump won’t accomplish half of what he had advertised.
This is pretty much the case for all presidential candidates.
Half would be more than 20%, not too bad.
Dennis L.
He has to meet all of his goals and then some to stave off the collapse.
And the moats don’t really look that strong with the unexplained drones which were quietly swept under the rug during the LA fire.
Same across this guy by accident, Steve Keen, an economist.
“Most of Steve Keen’s recent work focuses on modeling Hyman Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis and Irving Fisher’s debt deflation.[4][5] The hypothesis predicts that an overly large private debt to GDP ratio can cause deflation and depression. Here, the falling of the price level results in a continually rising real quantity of outstanding debt. Moreover, the continued deleveraging of outstanding debts increases the rate of deflation. Thus, debt and deflation act on and react to one another, resulting in a debt-deflation spiral. The outcome is a depression.” That quote from Wikipedia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Keen#Economics
His YouTube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/@ProfSteveKeen
He has good arguments regarding classical economics and marginal costs. Basically, industry makes things cheaper in almost all cases. I am now in CC electronics(hard for me, incredible what a microprocessor and IC chip can do compared to my old days of hard wiring stuff) and this is very true of electronics. Chips and parts are so cheap they are sent in ribbons for prices almost less than shipping.
He has an upcoming on “The Housing Crisis” on today. Don’t have time now, put it on the list.
Something is going to bust in the economy, my guess is it will be binary, trick is choosing metaphorical heads or tails.
A guess is if the government would allow it, a sixties VW Squareback could be manufactured for the same nominal price now as in the sixties. Marginal profit would be less than a F150 one could guess.
Dennis L.
Denise , I have been following Dr Keen since the 2008 GFC and also his Minsky school of thought . The problem is that all schools of economics had no idea about QE , QT , derivatives , currency swaps and shenanigan’s . So follow Dr Keen to educate yourself instead of his forecasts . Try to understand why we are where we are .
Thanks, nice to know one is in the right area.
Dennis L.
It is very clear that the goods and services, per capita, will be falling in the near future. It is also clear that how this fall in goods and services, per capita, will be falling will vary somewhat around the world. In some sense, this will look like recession or depression.
How this will look on a financial basis is less clear. The return on investment is clearly falling. Governments will clearly want to work on hiding this issue. They will do this, to the extent they can, before they fail completely. Whether this looks like hyperinflation or deflation is not entirely clear. It likely will vary around the world.
“Putting US Aid to Ukraine in Perspective”
(Subtitle: it was better to respect the Minsk Protocol, signed by Nato Country. That deal provided a neutral Ukraine Country, out of Nato, but we chose not to respect it)
“The politicians in Washington dole out foreign aid like it is Halloween treats. Millions, billions, who cares? As long as the money is flowing. So, to give this some perspective, let me use the losses from the raging wildfire sweeping the hills surrounding Los Angeles:
Empty Hydrants: Firefighters faced a significant setback when numerous hydrants in Pacific Palisades ran dry. Chief Engineer Janisse Quiñones of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power confirmed that all water storage tanks in the area were depleted by 3 am Wednesday.
Budget Cuts: The LAFD is grappling with a significant $17.6 million budget cut for the 2024-2025 fiscal year, the second-largest reduction among city departments. This could further strain their ability to combat future infernos, as reported by the NY Post.
Sending Gear to Ukraine: Joe Biden’s USAID has funded 16 Ukrainian fire departments with protective gear, motor pumps, chainsaws, and more by 2024, according to the organization’s reports. This has raised eyebrows, with figures like Elon Musk tweeting, “But what about California?” as LA burns.
The toll is sobering: two fatalities, over 1,000 buildings — schools, churches, and libraries included — destroyed. Palisades and Eaton fires spread across 26,000 acres with 0% containment reported.”
https://sonar21.com/putting-us-aid-to-ukraine-in-perspective/
We are coming to a point where a lot of our stuff will not be usable for much longer, because we do not have fuel to maintain all of the things we have. This stuff will somehow disappear from use, because of war or fires or something else. This situation is getting more intense now.
We have passed peak cars manufactured. We have passed peak new homes built. The number of young children in school is not as many as the older ones.
Somehow, the world economy is starting to shrink back. I expect that attempting to do rebuilding after the California fires will be expensive. Some structures will never be rebuilt.
as i’ve been trying to say for years
we built our common infrastructure on cheap surplus energy
now we are trying to sustain it on expensive scarce energy.
today i bought a book, Fire Weather, by John Vaillant. I strongly recommend OFW’ers to read it.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fire-Weather-Story-Hotter-World-ebook/dp/B0BKPHTNC7
All eyes are on State Farm’s next move as wildfires rip apart Los Angeles
BYMarco Quiroz-Gutierrez
January 11, 2025 at 6:02 AM EST
https://fortune.com/2025/01/11/state-farm-insurance-homes-california-palisades-wildfire/
State Farm is facing a rising tide of new scrutiny amid wildfires ripping through whole communities in Los Angeles. The insurer ended coverage for thousands of homes in the Pacific Palisades months before the disaster ruthlessly claimed swaths of homes, schools, houses of worship, and at least 10 lives.
….I think the effect on State Farm is going to be catastrophic. I think it’s going to, if anything, increase the speed at which they pull out of California,” McNeil
However, the insurer, which underwrites a fifth of California’s homeowners market
….Still, State Farm has been scaling back its business in the state over the past few years. In 2023, State Farm raised rates by an average of 20% for existing customers and said it would no longer accept new homeowners’ insurance applications in California. And in March, the insurance company said it would end coverage for around 72,000 homes and apartments in the state, 1,600 of which were in the Pacific Palisades where one of the largest fires is still uncontained.
Tik toc…we be in big trouble…I reside in South Florida and the same is happening with insurance..along with all other increases in the cost of existing
Agree .
https://mishtalk.com/economics/insured-fire-damage-will-top-20-billion-uninsured-losses-perhaps-100-billion/
You can’t argue with the business decision. it is possible that they knew something we do not know.
Suppose their scientist modelling is better than ours..sarcasm
If I was an insurance company I would not insure people in south Florida. Insurance companies are probably going to circle the wagons after this.
Seems they aren’t…my home owners insurance here in South Florida is not issuing new policies and cutting back on renewals by demands of inspections. We have a CB tool Shed 6 by 7 with a concrete slab top and need a roofer to verify it’s OK…cost me $400 to do so and it ain’t even a roof….we just had to reroof because of them
They weren’t wildfires. There hadn’t been any lightning in the area.
Norm, see my post above. Resources surround the US, no problem, many of them we can literally drive south of north to get, some of them we have to sail in local waters to a large island. If you haven’t noticed, Russia is very busy in Ukraine. Accident or planning? Syria is gone, accident or planning. If we have resources in the western hemisphere, who wants to sail halfway around the world to fight in a sandbox?
As always it is biology. See post on Melania, she did well, great son, and no housework. Biology, always biology.
Dennis L.
again dennis
the rules of war:
No1—all wars are fought over resources
no2—-wars ultimately destroy the resources they are fought over.
(no2 just takes a liitle longer to play out than No 1—but it still holds)
and lol—are you suggesting the USA drives north to get the resources of Athabasca—or even Greenland???
no wonder the USA has gone collectively nuts and put a madman in charge.
Again another celebrity worship.
I had a friend from California in my dorm in 1975.Guess what his summer job was during college…brush removal in the canyons of So Ca to mitigate fire danger.
Imagine that….they had fire danger then and they actually mitigated it by paying people to clear the brush.
Now they prefer to allocate their money to benefits for illegal migrants, homeless and DEI/woke policies. In 2014, in response to a drought, state money was allocated to build 6-7 new reservoirs. As of 2024….NONE have been built. Gov Newsom reallocated $160M in funds away from forestry management. The federal gov, forestry service under corrupt Joe Biden met their DEI goals with huge sums expended, while failing in almost all of their forestry management goals.
The fact that their reservoirs have run dry, they are short of fire trucks, that they are resorting to cannabilizing parts due to lack of maintenance, while donating fire equipment to Ukraine in 2022 just confirms the disastrous governance in LA/CA.
We all sympathize with the tragedy, but it is not climate change…it is leftwing, woke mismanagement.
The stupid, woke leftists in Ca will not learn, so they should be left to stew and rot in the disaster they have created. However much of LA that burns to the ground, it will be their fault.
At what point does incompetence begin to look intentional?
If you clear the brush you cause mudslides.
no you dont
clearing trees causes mudslides
Making the argument that human labor will lose value versus AGI.
https://nosetgauge.substack.com/p/capital-agi-and-human-ambition
“The key economic effect of AI is that it makes capital a more and more general substitute for labour. There’s less need to pay humans for their time to perform work, because you can replace that with capital (e.g. data centres running software replaces a human doing mental labour).”
At least that is what is hoped. The world needs demand for goods. This comes from workers, who are paid enough to afford to buy the output of the system. Without adequate “demand,” the system collapses. Robots and AI generated products do not provide demand. They are very incomplete parts of the system.
the critical factor, is that wages are created when one energy form is converted into another.
I don’t think we know how this one will work out. Economics as practiced is biology; the universe exists to support biology but the inorganic universe seems to go on no matter what. AI is inorganic.
Dennis L.
I am looking forward to AI rebuilding all the homes burned in LA.
It will be the proof of AI’s “promise”.
AI will also be deployed to prevent all future fires as it is so smart that it will predict fires in advance so they can be extinquished. sarc
It’s nanobots that will rebuild everything, silly.
them nanobots sneak up on you when you’re not lookin
assuming you can see them even if you are lookin
“It’s nanobots that will rebuild everything”
Not yet, but my guess is we are single digit years or possibly a little longer from that era. We know enough from physics and biology that such things are possible. The main question is what the side effects will be. That we can speculate about but there is no way we can be certain. Humans could withdraw from the physical world which would eliminate the need for housing or they could grow houses out of the carbon in the air. Or both, or neither or go into space. I just don’t know.
////Humans could withdraw from the physical world which would eliminate the need for housing or they could grow houses out of the carbon in the air./////
sheesshhh keith
i feel i want to engage with you, because as ive said you have a worthwhile intellect
but sometimes some of eddy’s eddyisms made more sense. (numbers an all)
“sheesshhh keith”
I said I don’t know how it will go, but what do you find wrong with the physics of growing houses from the carbon in air?
In case you have not noticed, trees grow from the carbon in air and sunlight. What would it take to convince you that humans (or computers) could control this process.
keith
people live IN houses
critters live ON trees
only a the other day i came across a house near me i hadnt seen before—just ”missed it” somehow.—-it was dated 1450—when it was bulit it was mostly tree.
modern homes demand much more than that—-look around you—imagine growing windows and light fittings?
every tree in unique—just as every person is unique
a symbiosis of the life forces that allow and support growth and life—a tree is a living object.—a different shape than a person, but still a living object.
the one law we will not overcome is the ability to grow life.
We can’t grow houses.
“We can’t grow houses.”
Certainly true today. Ten years from now it is likely to be a different story.
I think that the next virus for elimination of overcrowding will be something very aggressive that will spread among humans and their pets.
As the lack of the local food production compromises proper nutrition and the humans prefer feeding useless pets, this seems to be the solution.
My cats are very fond of voles. Locally produced voles.
My chickens also fight for a dead mouse that they find from time to time. Who knows the reason of its death: some rodent poison, virus?
Viruses that kill their hosts quickly never spread very far. This is a big problem in trying to use germ warfare to keep population down.
Even if virulent viruses are introduced, they quickly evolve to become less virulent. This is why covid didn’t get very far. The problem will exist with any other very virulent virus.
Not spreading panic , but an update . In India there is no infra for even primary healthcare leave alone check for virus . Respiratory disease is common because of high air pollution . The biggest problem is ignorance and poverty . No money to pay for a checkup .
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/hmpv-virus-live-updates-in-india-cases-tally-symptoms-treatment-human-metapneumovirus-who-gujarat-respiratory-infection-11736559057860.html
“The problem will exist with any other very virulent virus.”
I can think of counter examples. Ebola being the most recent example, it did not become less lethal over the time it caused the big outbreak. Smallpox is an example too. Rabies circulates and does not seem to be less lethal over time except maybe in bats.
Someone who knows the field could probably come up with other examples.
Not to say that disease can’t hold down a population. The Black Death killed between a third and half the European population. Eventually, humans might have evolved to become more resistant to it since we carry signs for that in our genes.
I’m no biologist but couldn’t a phd student theoretically make a virus using crisper? I’ve always thought that germ warfare is a cheap way of poorer countries competing
Search for Horsepox PhD
” ScienceInsiderHealth
How Canadian researchers reconstituted an extinct poxvirus for $100,000 using mail-order DNA
A study that brought horsepox back to life is triggering a new debate about the risks and power of synthetic biology
6 Jul 2017ByKai Kupferschmidt
Eradicating smallpox, one of the deadliest diseases in history, took humanity decades and cost billions of dollars. Bringing the scourge back would probably take a small scientific team with little specialized knowledge half a year and cost about $100,000.
That’s one conclusion from an unusual and as-yet unpublished experiment performed last year by Canadian researchers. A group led by virologist David Evans of the University of Alberta in Edmonton, Canada, says it has synthesized the horsepox virus, a relative of smallpox, from genetic pieces ordered in the mail. Horsepox is not known to harm humans—and like smallpox, researchers believe it no longer exists in nature; nor is it seen as a major agricultural threat. But the technique Evans used could be used to recreate smallpox, a horrific disease that was declared eradicated in 1980. “No question. If it’s possible with horsepox, it’s possible with smallpox,” says virologist Gerd Sutter of Ludwig Maximilians University in Munich, Germany.
We live in a strange world where researchers want to bring back to life viruses from long ago and make new viruses that don’t exist in nature.
“We live in a strange world where researchers want to bring back to life viruses from long ago
According to Wikipedia
“In the summer of 2017, researchers at the University of Alberta recreated horsepox via lab synthesis to conduct research into using viruses to treat cancer.[17]”
I would take this with a grain of salt. But the experiment was useful for public policy on how long the US should maintain a stockpile of smallpox vaccine.
“and make new viruses that don’t exist in nature.”
That is beyond the current state of the art.
About the high cost of home insurance they can use the method used in Sonora, CA, in the 1800s. The expectation was the town would be burned to the ground every 30 years or so. The solution homes made of stone, with iron plates to swing over the windows and the doors. Cost of insurance zero. Judging by how many homes with these features remain in 2025 it works.
Most buildings across the continent of Europe are constructed of non-combustible materials. Houses in Spain even have concrete roofs. When you renew UK house insurance, if you’re shopping around the new insurer will always ask you to confirm that the building is of non-flammable construction.
Florida Puts Asphalt Shingles in the Crosshairs
With a burgeoning insurance crisis, the state’s top insurance commissioner floats the idea of abandoning asphalt for alternative materials
By Bryan Gottlieb
A Popular Roofing Choice Under Scrutiny
According to an Arturo 2022 report, “Hurricane Exposure: The State of Gulf Homes,” asphalt shingles cover more than 70% of Gulf Coast homes. While their affordability and ease of installation have made them a longstanding favorite, their performance in severe weather has come under increasing scrutiny.
Designed to withstand winds up to 110 mph, asphalt shingles are often no match for Florida’s intensifying hurricanes. Aging or degraded shingles are even more susceptible to storm damage, compounding the financial strain on insurers that frequently foot the bill for replacements. According to Yaworsky, the material often fails to meet its advertised 30-year lifespan, making it an unreliable option for a state prone to hurricanes.
Metal Roofs
Cost: Approximately 65% more than asphalt shingles.
Benefits: Can withstand wind insulation to minimize noise during rainstorms.
Ceramic or Concrete Tiles
Cost: Around 50% more than asphalt shingles.
Benefits: Highly durable and resistant to fire and wind, with a lifespan of 50 years or more. Their weight, however, may necessitate structural reinforcement.
Yeah, can’t wait for these to mandated by the Florida State building code..
All working class folks will end up living in tents….something they will only be able to afford
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8oCOcQ22lA
China has two classes. Just like the west.
China has two classes–the privileged few, and the many who work from 9:00 am to 9:00pm, six days a week.
We in the West have the college grads, and the many who are not college grads.
The college grads expect to get jobs that will pay enough to support having a family and buying a home, but many cannot get jobs of this kind. Or some get high-paying jobs, but when they turn 40, they discover that their employers really want younger, less expensive employees. So they find themselves left out, also.
I am enjoying ChatGPT.
I am reading Schopenhauer’s Parerga and Paralipomena and bouncing ideas with CGPT about the analogues with evolution.
AI really does ‘get’ that subject lol.
> Picking up on the themes from last night, we can dive deeper into the intersection of evolution, “blind causality,” and Schopenhauer’s philosophy.
Evolution and Blind Causality:
In evolutionary biology, the concept of “blind causality” refers to the idea that natural selection operates without purpose or conscious intention. It’s a purely mechanistic process driven by environmental pressures, genetic variations, and random mutations. There is no “goal” in evolution, just the natural outcomes of survival and reproduction. Organisms evolve because certain traits help them survive or reproduce better than others, not because there is an inherent purpose to their development.
This concept ties in with Schopenhauer’s view on human existence. For Schopenhauer, the “will” is a blind, irrational force that drives all living beings, but it’s not guided by reason or conscious intention. Instead, it manifests itself in all of nature as an instinctive, purposeless striving. He argues that humans, like all living creatures, are driven by this “will to live,” which is inherently blind and not directed towards any higher goal.
Schopenhauer’s “Purposeful Volition” and its Illusion:
Schopenhauer’s notion that purposeful volition is an illusion aligns with the findings of evolutionary psychology and neuroscience, which suggest that what we perceive as conscious decisions or deliberate actions are often the result of complex, unconscious processes. In other words, humans like other animals are guided by instincts, biological drives, and subconscious patterns that have evolved to maximize survival and reproductive success.
We like to think of ourselves as rational beings with conscious control over our actions, but Schopenhauer argues that what we perceive as purposeful volition is merely the result of unconscious drives — a reflection of that blind, purposeless “will.” Even our sense of agency, the feeling that we make decisions, may be more of a narrative construct to justify actions that are ultimately dictated by deeper, instinctive forces.
Complex Instinctive Adaptations:
Humans and other animals are deeply influenced by evolutionary adaptations that have developed over millennia. These adaptations are often complex, shaped by numerous factors such as environmental challenges, social structures, and genetic predispositions. While they might appear purposeful, they are ultimately the result of blind evolutionary processes.
For example, our fear of certain dangers (like snakes or spiders) is an adaptive instinct that likely evolved because avoiding such dangers increased our chances of survival. However, the “purpose” of the fear — protecting us from harm — was never consciously intended. The behavior arose simply because it was beneficial to survival over generations.
This complex instinctive behavior can seem like purposeful action, but it is more accurately understood as the result of evolved neural and psychological mechanisms that guide us toward actions that enhance survival and reproduction.
Synthesis: Blind Causality, Evolution, and Schopenhauer
Schopenhauer’s view that “purposeful volition is an illusion” dovetails with the scientific understanding of evolution, where behaviors (including human behaviors) arise from blind, automatic processes. Our instincts and drives may give us the illusion of being purposeful agents, but the underlying causes are more like evolutionary adaptations designed to serve survival, not any grand, metaphysical intention.
In this light, the “will” Schopenhauer talks about can be viewed as a kind of primal instinct, one that manifests in all living beings as an ongoing striving for existence, rather than a conscious pursuit of a higher goal. This ongoing striving, much like evolution itself, is without conscious direction or foresight, yet it leads to complex adaptive behaviors and thought patterns.
Thus, while humans might perceive themselves as intentional agents, Schopenhauer and evolutionary theory alike suggest that this perceived volition is, in fact, a manifestation of deep, complex instincts and evolutionary pressures — all part of a larger, blind, causal process.
I see that GPT likes to repeat itself. And also that Schopenhauer implicitly stated the MPP long before it was enunciated. And of course he ihmself might not have been the first. Machiavelli provided similar concepts, as applied to society as a whole (S. concepts apply to both society and the individual).
“Schopenhauer’s view that “purposeful volition is an illusion” dovetails with the scientific understanding of evolution, where behaviors (including human behaviors) arise from blind, automatic processes. Our instincts and drives may give us the illusion of being purposeful agents, but the underlying causes are more like evolutionary adaptations designed to serve survival, not any grand, metaphysical intention.”
Why I don’t care for philosophy, a narrative trying to explain the world with no testable thesis.
Personally think for a Christian, after the Bible it is all nonsense. Why the Bible? It seems to work 20% of the time and give 80% of the results.
Your mileage may vary.
Dennis L.
“Why the Bible?”
As long as you don’t take it out of context, it is some of our civilizations oldest writings. I have taken a chunk out of Numbers to support a model of how humans were selected for war.
The Book of Numbers, The Holy Bible, King James Version Chapter 31, verses 17 and 18.
17: Now therefore, kill every male among the little ones, and kill every woman who has known man by lying with him.
18: But all the young girls who have not known man by lying with him keep alive for you.
Without the gene flow through the daughters of the defeated and killed warriors selection for war would not have happened (in the model anyway).
This is not the only example, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crow_Creek_massacre
Nice.
Dennis L.
And later they learned introducing the female genes of foreigners led to idoltary (religious practices not compatible with the main ideology), and after the exile to Babylon, a great purge was taken to get rid the descendants of foreign women.
The book of Ruth was invented around that time by those being driven out to try to justify foreign marriages, but Ruth is NOT mentioned anywhere else except in the Book of Matthew, by Matthew, real name Levi but using a Greek name because he had some Greek ancestors, to justify his own mixed ancestry.
The philosophers bring justification to the world, while the Asian zombies are no more than automata.
Is ChatGPT smart enough to recognize that the fossil record does not support the theory of evolution?
i was under the impression that evolution was proven beyond the level of theory.
gaps the fossil records do not affect that.
Of note, the gaps in the fossil record cast doubt on the theory of evolution (IMO of course).
Feel free to believe whatever but if evolution were real, there would have been countless trillion of creatures “in between” what we see in the fossil record. Their fossils do not exist.
I kin of lean toward “intelligent creation or seeding”
The present fossil record kind of resembles….gasp…a biblical account almost.
I have respect for other theories as long as they are not trumpeted as fact. Again…my opinion.
the biblical accounts gives 6000 years since ”creation”
you obviously accept that as ”fact”
you can’t pick and choose the bits of creation you agree with.
most animal and plant remains get eaten or ground down to nothing—hence very few fossils of anything, a few hundred—not trillions.
evolution is not a theory—but the clouds are seeded in your own mind, only you can clear them.
“6000 years since ”creation”
I love it when someone tells me the Earth was created October 22, 4004 BC: . I agree and add at 9 am in the morning. They sometimes bite and ask how I know it to the hour. God is going to keep banker’s hours, of course, none of this getting up with the peasants.
One time, this crazy rap completely broke someone out of their faith.
best take ever on that was done by Spencer Tracy, could watch it over and over, forget the name of the movie—some ofw’er will know it
it was the scopes trial—great stuff—-teacher prosecuted for teaching the ”theory” of creation—-weird
the movie was inherit the wind—got brain fog today
this is where godnuttery takes you
” fossil record does not support the theory of evolution?”
Far as I know, it does. And it is backed up by the work in molecular evolution.
We know, for example, that the age of coal ended. Why? It seems that fungi originated at that point and decomposed the dead trees rather than them turning to coal. The molecular clock for fungi DNA checks with the geological data.
You have to keep up. Very little of this was known when I was a kid.
“The Trump team understands we have to rebuild our industrial capacity for reasons of economic and national security…. To accomplish those goals, you absolutely have to have a robust, pro-American trade policy that includes tariffs.”
USA industry has suffered particularly badly from globalisation with China and elsewhere and USA needs to rebuild its industrial/ military base if it is to compete for security with China, Russia and potentially India and Brasil as future great powers.
The post-Cold War unipolar moment of uncontested USA global hegemony is over with the rise of China and others as potential great powers, globalisation is not really working for USA industry and security and the time has come for a strategic repositioning.
USA is withdrawing from the neo-con project in which the entire globe is the USA sphere of hegemonic influence and USA is retrenching as a regional hegemon with its own sphere of influence in the north American continent/ Panama/ Greenland.
The immediate tasks for USA are to withdraw from globalisation and from the war in Europe and to start to rebuild USA with a regional sphere of influence that adds latent power and strategic weight to USA in future great power security competition.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/08/economy/trump-national-economic-emergency-tariffs/index.html
Trump is considering a national economic emergency declaration to allow for new tariff program, sources say
(CNN) President-elect Donald Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries, four sources familiar with the matter told CNN, as Trump seeks to reset the global balance of trade in his second term.
The declaration would allow Trump to construct a new tariff program by using the International Economic Emergency Powers Act, known as “IEEPA,” which unilaterally authorizes a president to manage imports during a national emergency.
Trump, one of the sources noted, has a fondness for the law, since it grants wide-ranging jurisdiction over how tariffs are implemented without strict requirements to prove the tariffs are needed on national security grounds.
…. No final decision has been made on whether to declare a national emergency, sources told CNN. Trump’s team is still exploring other legal avenues to buttress the tariffs that Trump pitched on the campaign trail.
* * *
USA heads for regionalisation while UK looks to China?
To be fair, the EU faces getting cut off by USA from China and Russia and their resources, markets and investment while the EU is heavily tariffed by USA – which is not exactly an optimal model for future prosperity and stability.
That nonsense has gone way far and Europe is going to have to make some serious decisions for itself for a change. The UK economy is in a right mess and that situation cannot really go on indefinitely.
UK needs to look at its options to improve the situation. The Chinese site Global Times gives some more details of what is going on. The CBI is fully behind these pragmatic moves on financial services, trade, investment and supply lines to boost the UK economy.
Politico has got the CBI view. The UK is going to have to navigate USA behaviour and to do its own thing to improve its situation. UK cannot just tie itself down to USA geopolitical security contests as a USA pawn and a patsy on the board.
USA is breaking up globalisation with sanctions, tariffs and trade wars while the developing world comes ever closer together. There is massive potential in UK cooperation with China and the time has come for UK to take its options seriously.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202501/1326673.shtml
China, UK to hold 11th economic, financial dialogue during UK Treasury chief visit
Established in 2008, this high-level dialogue mechanism has served as an important platform for dialogue and cooperation on strategic, overarching and long-term issues in the economic and financial fields, Guo said.
Topics to be discussed during this dialogue include macro-economic policy and economic globalization, trade and investment, industrial cooperation, the development of the financial market, and cooperation on financial supervision, according to Guo.
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-donald-trump-rupert-soames-confederation-of-british-industry/
Embrace China despite Trump, says CBI boss
LONDON ― The chair of the United Kingdom’s biggest business lobby group has urged the government to foster closer economic ties with China, even if it risks the ire of United States President-elect Donald Trump.
As Chancellor Rachel Reeves heads to Beijing for talks on boosting investment between the two countries, the chair of the Confederation of British Industry Rupert Soames told POLITICO’s Power Play podcast: “We need to go beyond the security concerns.”
“The fact is that we have to have a relationship with China,” he said. “It’s one of the fastest growing economies in the world. They are a huge part of our supply chain.
…. Yet Trump’s imminent reentry into the White House could leave Britain in the middle of two behemoths if the incoming U.S. president makes good on his pledge to impose punitive trade tariffs on China. Soames, however, believes the U.K. should take advantage of this position.
The China-U.S. relationship is like “two 500 pound gorillas staring at each other,” Soames said, but the U.K. can “be a nimble, agile animal of a smaller size and maybe be part way between the two.”
The U.K. can profit from distinguishing itself from the EU and Washington as it establishes its ties with China, Soames, a City veteran who is also the grandson of Winston Churchill, added.
“We can’t keep on saying to China: ‘No, we don’t want to have a relationship.’ The good news is they appear to want to have a relationship with us. And we can row our own boat: We do not have to be tied into the EU’s relationship with China.”
The CBI head was also optimistic about the U.K. skirting the impact of any deepening trade conflicts: “For the first time since Brexit, the U.K. is finding itself in a position where it’s going to be doing more trade other than just clearing up the mess of Brexit….
You quote:
“The immediate tasks for USA are to withdraw from globalisation and from the war in Europe and to start to rebuild USA with a regional sphere of influence that adds latent power and strategic weight to USA in future great power security competition.”
This is what needs to be done, without enough oil for all of the international transport. Working on a regional basis will hopefully use oil in a more sparing way.
Whether the UK and China can work together more is unclear to me. They are quite a ways apart geographically. China needs more customers, but the UK has problems with its electricity supply as well as its oil supply. How many EVs can it add?
1. A major problem, perhaps the major problem was the abandonment and God by the West. Sunday school(in reality and as a metaphor) seems to give social norms which work more or less. Materialism, whatever one calls western philosophy does not work as a basis for life and relationships.
2. Brains count, they are not sufficient(see 1 above), but they are necessary.
3. With brains education is necessary. Paper, pencil are very useful for training the mind, keyboards for me not so much. After literacy, mathematics(ability to make change is a start), and science, social studies can be handled with weekly services and Sunday school at very reasonable prices.
4. The universe is not deterministic; one can do all the right things and still get a poor result. See 1 above for a way to deal with things not being fair. Life is 80/20.
Dennis L.
Isn’t this a clear-cut case of “too little, too late”? and of course the devil is in the details. Trump may cede Eurasia as sphere of influence, but what about the Middle East, Africa and South America? And Russia and China will for sure slow down the USA by putting up resistance in Venezuela and other places.
Sounds worrisome!
Hollywood Lights….sorry Hollywood Nights by Bob Seger…when California was nice and pretty…the Good Olde Days…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k4FY-143yjE&pp=ygUVaG9sbHl3b29kIGxpZ2h0cyBzb25n
Hollywood Nights (Remastered with on-screen lyrics) is performed by Bob Seger & The Silver Bullet Band in a 1978 California concert. The hit single overdub was released that year from the album Stranger in Town.
Songfacts.com: Bob Seger was never the LA type: Born and raised in Michigan, he remained rooted in the Detroit area and built a reputation as a blue-collar rock star with a Midwest sensibility. When he got off the road and hunkered down to record, he often did so at Muscle Shoals Sound Studio in Alabama, which is even more distant (physically and culturally) than Los Angeles. For the Stranger In Town album, he worked in Detroit and in Alabama but went to LA to finish the album. When he was there, he rented a house in the Hollywood Hills, where he could see the bright lights of the big city.
The “”Hollywood nights, Hollywood hills”” idea came to him when he was driving in the area; when he got back to his rented house, he saw a copy of Time magazine (March 6, 1978), with the model Cheryl Tiegs on the cover. She fit the LA archetype: blond, skinny, huge smile. Her headline read: The All-American Model.
Using the chorus he came up within the car, Seger started crafting a story about a guy from the Midwest who comes to Hollywood and meets his dream girl. They go on whirlwind adventures, but it comes to a sudden end one morning when he wakes up alone. He’s left looking over the Hollywood Hills, wondering if he can ever go back home.
To create the insistent percussion on this track, Seger’s drummer, David Teegarden, recorded one pass, then overdubbed a different pattern on top of it, so it sounds like there are two drummers playing on it.
Billy Payne of Little Feat played the piano and organ on this track. The Waters family: Julia, Luther, Maxine, and Oren did the backing vocals. Recording in LA gave Seger access to this talent. The Waters backed some of the biggest names in music, including Lionel Richie, Bruce Springsteen, and Barbra Streisand.
The rhythm in this song lends itself to speed. Many of us have found ourselves inadvertently blowing past the speed limit when the song comes on the radio.
This song captures the essence of Hollywood from an outsider’s perspective, not unlike “”Hotel California,”” which has lyrics by the Texan Don Henley (and guitar by Seger’s friend and fellow Michigan native, Glenn Frey).
On the Stranger In Town album cover, Hollywood Hills are in the background behind Bob Seger. The photo was taken on the lawn of the house he was renting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVz_hf4Jbe0
Failed entrepreneur shares his experience of being a “broke (single) loser”.
I did not watch it all but this is a good guy. Kernels of truth here and there in a vast sea of lies.
Unfortunately, many people around the world are running into the problem of not being able to do well enough to build up savings to handle things like dental problems. Any little problem causes a major difficulty. The overall trend is downward.
They smell blood on the British Pound . Keep watching , this could be a trigger because I recall Alex Krainers video where he said the collapse of Ukraine will lead to the fall of the City . All loans , guarantees given for finance to Kiev are from London . All roads lead to Rome . 😁
https://convera.com/blog/foreign-exchange/are-the-bond-vigilantes-back/
Twitching . Is it safe to go into the waters ? — Jaws
https://finimize.com/content/inflation-worries-keep-eurozone-bond-markets-on-edge
Aren’t those guarantees for finance to Kiev also from US?
Or the burden is mainly for UK?
Thanks for feedback
Mainly UK . USA and Frankfurt also maybe involved but mainly UK . The City is basically a money laundering centre and that is why all economic fugitives live in London . Regulation of finance is extremely weak .
The real Big Ben lives on the Cayman Islands. ‘Off the book & off the hook’. That is why ordinary jeans have backpockets. The only differnce is being charged or not when you shoot the pickpocker.
It seems like there are many parts of the world with potentially very big problems in repaying debt. We will get to see how markets respond to this problem.
Debt, in the context of an energy-constrained economy, can be understood as a mechanism that cannibalizes the system’s existing resources to sustain itself temporarily. Much like a starving body consuming its own muscle tissue or organs to maintain vital functions, debt reallocates value or energy within the system, providing short-term relief at the expense of long-term health and stability. This process is inherently unsustainable because it relies not on creating new energy or value but on repurposing what already exists, often weakening the very structures that underpin future growth.
When borrowing occurs, it often shifts resources from one part of the economy to another, creating the illusion of growth or stability. However, this redistribution merely reallocates existing energy rather than increasing the total energy available. The act of breaking down vital components—whether in an economic system or a biological one—may stave off immediate collapse but leaves lasting damage that reduces the overall capacity for recovery or regeneration.
Furthermore, debt does not merely transfer resources within the present—it also pulls value forward from the future. By committing to repayment, borrowing assumes that future productivity and energy availability will be sufficient to meet these obligations. Yet in a system without energy growth, this assumption becomes increasingly tenuous. If no additional energy enters the system, the debt obligations remain unmet, setting the stage for cascading failures as the system strains under the weight of its accumulated burdens. Essentially, the process of debt-fueled growth becomes a gamble on a future that may never arrive, amplifying the risk of systemic breakdown.
Thanks for the additional explanation. I agree with you.
https://watt-logic.com/2025/01/09/blackouts-near-miss-in-tighest-day-in-gb-electricity-market-since-2011/
Blackout “near miss” in Britain yesterday.
England is operating at very close to the “edge” in terms available electricity supply. It seems like it is only a matter of time before significant outages in electricity supply start hitting the Britain.
Thr energy inefficient building of a church is being demolished in Germany
https://youtu.be/_wHmvkheDC8?si=1Snk7ppZAdZA5nmI
Basically, one purpose church buildings are not sustainable. Buildings of multipurpose character are needed. With high energy efficiency.
Here in my South Florida city two parishes with older churches had to construct much smaller chapels as an energy saving measure for services that did not require the size of the main church. Also, one had to remove it’s large red stain glass window panels because of the solar heat affect and replace them. Air conditioning is a big energy user. We noticed a drop in half of our electric bill now that it is “winter’ here and no longer put the A/C on
Today’s church buildings are terribly expensive to maintain.
The old cathedral buildings in Europe were neither heated nor cooled. People stood during the services. While they were expensive to build (required much wages paid to local workers), their ongoing upkeep tended to be inexpensive.
I can see why the excuse of energy inefficiency would be used to get rid of one of today’s churches.
The old Cathedrals are stone monuments that were as much about the symbolisation of established power, like the stone castles on the landscape, as about religion.
They were built to impress and to last like the established power itself.
Parish churches all over the place with central heating, carpets, chairs &c. are a product of a particular period of energetic plenitude that is time dated.
Personally I prefer the old impressive stone stuff on a sparser and more spartan landscape but I do care for running water, central heating, fridges, wi-fi and struff.
The multitudinous ‘plebs’ and their modernist churches are time dated like all things. Some things last longer than others. Presumably everyone more or less enjoyed it while it lasted.
Feudalism lasted longer than industrialism and the buildings of the times reflect that in their own duracy. Some things are built to last and some things are not.
I suppose that I will have to get myself back to my castle and get me portrait painted for the sake of posterity lol – if only. We will find out if we are built to last.
Churches are necessary no matter what the cost. See inner cities of US, no church, absolute chaos.
No proof of God, religion, some better than others, just seems to work.
Dennis L.
Everyone needs hope. They also need some tie to other people, beyond their immediate family. This group can provide mates for children, among other things. And religions provide some set of rules to follow (order), in a way that doesn’t require a huge army of oversight people to enforce.
Religions of some kind are necessary in the world. When there is lots of inexpensive energy, we think we can get along without religions. But it is not true in general.
Cyber attacks on cadastral data in Slovakia and Russia
https://hnonline.sk/slovensko/96188517-kyberneticky-utok-na-kataster-je-najvaecsim-v-historii-slovenska-vyhlasil-takac-po-rokovani-bezpecnostnej-rady
https://www.yahoo.com/news/hackers-claim-breached-russia-real-075702298.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMOY3k-0gboaTSvIvomr0U4wFD1dH2Ds5wFO6VDU7cYodVcZZF05Zmqco5OyNpmDRr_VUJqPoqW3QDcSqGJBeXerIiYRyHns_5MBaaTw95025svMHxVKueZPkdz9qa-IVp-TmZ7DOP0uFccbBR3h75x2uXOrRxS5doo_aAnDkdi2
https://www.property-forum.eu/news/cadastre-in-slovakia-has-malfunctioned-after-cyber-attack/19409
An interesting way of starting a civil war.
Cadastral data, also known as a cadastre, contains official, legal documentation concerning the quantity, dimensions, location, value, tenure, and ownership of individual parcels of land. If this is disturbed, I can imagine that there would be major disruption of many activities. Who owns what? How much should different people or organizations be taxed? Who should be hired or promoted? What qualifications does a particular person have?
“Who owns what? How much should different people or organizations be taxed?”
Simple answer: the guy with the biggest and best army. That makes collection of taxes moot.
Dennis L.
I am afraid you are right.
Cloud seeding in Saudi Arabia and United Arabs Emirats.
There is no need to explain that if clouds are stimulated to make rain in a specific area, then there is no rain for neighbouring areas.
In fact, these activities don’t ‘create’ additional clouds in the sky, but stimulate existing clouds to unload in a specific area…
Activities previous years: https://saudipress.com/saudi-arabia-s-cloud-seeding-program-451-flights-4bn-cubic-meters-of-rain-in-2023
Today: https://english.alarabiya.net/News/saudi-arabia/2025/01/08/saudi-arabia-issues-weather-warning-as-some-regions-hit-with-heavy-rains
Today: “The Daily Mail also addressed rumors that excessive cloud-seeding by the UAE might have been partly responsible for excessive rainfall.
https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2025/01/07/mecca-floods-after-extreme-downpour/
Today: https://saudipress.com/how-artificial-rain-can-make-a-difference-to-saudi-arabia-and-gulf-region-s-water-situation
And the egghead’s believe we can use a similar method to contain Global Climate, like Gail says, it’s a job creation project and appears something is being done about the problem….plus someone is making money
Right now, I am changing planes in Doha, Qatar. There are signs in the Ladies Room about helping them conserve water. The cheapest bottled water the airport sells is more expensive than the (slightly smaller) bottles of Coca Cola. The view from the air makes it clear that the area is mostly desert.
I can see why every Middle Eastern group would like to do cloud seeding to help their own situation. But getting exactly the right outcome is impossibly difficult. And we likely cannot change the overall rainfall amount.
Purity of Essence…..Water….
There is no river or lake in Saudi Arabia . FUBAR .
Peace on Earth
Are we at Church?…because that’s probably the one place it may apply
It is a reference to the movie Doctor Strange Love and the danger of nuclear war.
I think that the strategy of Putin is bad: he should send pensioners and women into the war? Why just young men?
And special children troops are also a good idea, known from the past.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children%27s_Crusade
That is because Europe had over population in relation to food in that period.
Crusades were a way to get rid of a lot of people.
And the one that survived brought back a lot of neat stuff to use or sell, never mind a host of new disease to further cut back the home population…
I live that Free Palestine…
Maybe we should move the Chews to Las Vegas along with all their sacred sites, plenty of open land there….it’s near Hollywood CA, and they are great entertainers for the casinos, ect..just a suggestion.
Maybe the native Indians would be upset..just kidding
Keith, be safe leave now. Worst case you waste a nights rent on a hotel room.
Yield curve is ticking up rapidly after becoming uninverted again. It won’t be long now- the big one.
Hope you’re all suitably positioned. God speed.
I don’t think that anyone is expecting a big increase from the US stock market this year.
Looking on Copilot for an estimated of homeowner’s insurance cost increases secondary to CA wildfires. First glance is 40%.
This could have painful consequences on those currently owning homes as well as companies which own large numbers of homes as speculation.
In CA while the historical/market cost may be high, rebuilding will be higher due to an acute shortage of labor which will most likely be the limiting factor.
Film at eleven,
Dennis L.
How about providing links to evidence, rather than what you heard whispered in your ear. This AI stuff is just lies being fed to you by whoever owns the AI.
Isn’t it obvious by now?
Generally Copilot has links to their replies. I do not include them for brevity. Good point, will see if I can do that, Copilot gives numbers which give a link to the underlying data.
Dennis L.
We really don’t know how this will turn out. The state insurer seems to be heavily involved in insurance in the state already because regulators won’t let rates rise as high as they need to. If the State of California is willing to subsidize the state insurer, then, in theory, the rate increase might not be too high.
The regular insurance market had already started to leave before this fire started. Maybe it will become even more restrictive regarding which homes it covers. There is more to this than a simple rate increase.
Ostensibly, home insurance is the first to go of all the primary services North America used to presume as standard. At the moment, it might be a choice between a vacation every couple years or home insurance.
California is top heavy with government. Canada is nearly as bad. The inputs are now no longer matching the outputs, and the situation is becoming untenable… quickly.
There are solutions to the problem, but they are not ideal solutions relative to expectations of the last 70 years, and we can be damned certain governments will do their best to get in the way of progress in letting nature fill the void.
I suppose peering over the dead ahead thermodynamic cliff, wont be anything other than frustrating or worse, especially if one or one’s home is in the process of being consumed by it.
The Uneducated Economist over at You Tube works at a lumber distributorship in Washington State. He says that lumber prices have declined, so the saw mills are cutting back on production of sheathing and lumber. Building pemits/starts are now declining. Forget about all the construction that appears to be going on right now which gives you the false impression that housing construction is booming. No so. That is based on previous momentum.
So maybe a sudden rebound in lumber prices from this LA fire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtzY7ZWcvPI&t=1654s starts at @06:30
With all of the problems people are having in finding jobs that pay well, I would think that we would start seeing more people looking for housemates or apartment mates, and more intergenerational families. This would tend to reduce the overall need for housing.
Admittedly Los Angeles will have some homes to replace (5,000 or a fair amount more), but eventually I would think that the overall number of households will tend to shrink. A few rich people will be able to afford new homes, but most people will move together into old homes and apartments. I would expect demand for lumber to stay relatively low.
The 2028 Olympics are in LA. The land grab will allow many new hotels and apartments near the venue.
They are quite far from the venues and owmed by people who are already filthy rich.
1177 BC discusses how multiple interconnected catastrophes can contribute to the collapse of civilization. The US has horrible financial deficits and now huge amounts of money or underlying assets in CA have been destroyed. That is two out of three.
Interesting times.
Dennis L.
USA will be beter without CA, SF to LA vorridor
Cali is the worlds’ fifth largest economy.
Silicon Valley has 3 of the five most powerful companies. FB, Google, Apple. (excluding Hollywood and entertainment)
The world’s largest bank by market cap (wells fargo)
The average life expectancy is nearly a decade longer than states in the south.
There is a reason the med house in San Fran is over a million dollars. (demand is sky high!!)
I dont agree with Texas for political reasons but I’m not naive enough to assert (we don’t need them) and ignore how important their state is to the country.
We don’t need Facebook, Google or Apple.
You have some good points. AI seems to make searching the web much better than Google. Have never used FB, don’t use Apple so no direct experience.
Dennis L.
All of these 3 companies have extensive operations in Austin, Texas. They could decide to move anytime…and probably will.
One company not mentioned…Intel…is on the verge of bankruptcy. But in Texas….powerful Texas Instruments standing strong and profitable.
I agree. Interesting times!
Jose Maria Sanches Silva also wrote a story called Adios Josefina.
Santiago, a lonely boy who is probably a stepchild as his mother only adores the sister she has had with her current husband and all of them treating him like a piece of sh*t, finds a whale named Josefina (after Josephine, Napoleon’s first wife). in a cup.
Josefina is like the genie in Aladdin’s lamp, going a bunch of places and getting into adventures here and there including places an ordinary whale does not go, and Santiago rides the whale and gets into a bunch of trouble.
But as the title says, Santiago grows up and finds he cannot play with Josefina anymore, and the whale disappears.
That is like the story of a child who was hallucinated and lived in what we would now call a virtual world, and is brought back to the real world.
That story came out in 1962, the same year the song Puff the Magic Dragon was released by Peter Yarrow of Peter Paul & Mary.
Little Jackie played with Puff the Magic Dragon, in an imaginary island called Hanalei, a place well known for producing a high grade of narcotics back then. At the end, as the life goes too hard for Jackie, he chooses not to grow up and overdoses. (Peter Yarrow spent a lifetime denying that story but it is a poor excuse when every indication shows that Jackie did overdose.)
When I see the cornucopians not abandoning their beliefs on technologies which are getting more remote every day as the Asian automata pretending to be STEM experts but unable to do anything other than what are ordered on them, I think about these two stories – sometimes it is better to stay in the delusion than face the brutal reality.
“sometimes it is better to stay in the delusion than face the brutal reality”
Experiencing harsh trauma can lead to a split of identify, where one alter ego stays in the horror and the other ignores all and thus is able to deal with reality.
Thinking about survival of a family or species it is obviously better to be able to adapt to reality. It is not by chance the homo economicus was suggested, which was difficult to spot during pandemic years.
In many disciplines, the matter can only be understood “jumping into it” and being directly affected by the constituents that define the situation. As to our topic, it is not difficult to reduce living standards. The challenge is to maintain the production of hydrocarbones in a structural global recession with an eternal downward spiral. It usually requires authoritative measures but not like what we have seen in the last years.
Your metapher is good, because most people prefer to stay in their bubble. It would be very hard to decide on these matters democratically.
To develop feasible routines and workarounds, we would need pioneers developing them – fenced off from their surroundings, market conditions and regulations but protected from the harsh consequences of trial and error by interventions from outside.
As to your ideas about genetical selection: We have in the family some members that are undoubtedly more capable than others. It is clearly a generical thing, they have developed very early in life and of course they were encouraged, but they shew their talents early and earned all recognition. But it cines with a price! It is an isolated talent and not a general superiority. To make use of these talents is only in community, where the deficits can be buffered.
I am suspicious, that humans are so interrelated, that small advantages and deficits cannot be selected genetically. All is more about the adaptation of the brain to the circumstances and that is a social thing. The brain grows the needed synapses as an adaptation to reality.
If this reality is drastically changed, the brain just has no program to deal with it. While poetic realism aims at the change of reality to open chances to people, this is another point: the individual cannot react to reality because the respective synapses were never made. We see this in children being raised by the smartphone. Looking to feral children, some were able to catch up and some had probably organic deficits. But they were children, not adults. They had to adapt to a secure, clearly structured environment, though, and not develop scripture and the processing of iron themselves.
“We also know that uranium consumption is terribly inefficient. M. King Hubbert thought that nuclear energy using uranium had amazing potential, but most of this potential remains untapped.”
Fast-neutron/breeder reactors are way more efficient.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fast-neutron_reactor
There must be other problems that keep them from being widely adopted. I am no expert in this area.
They go supercritical fast. Then it is kaboom.
Let’s put it in L.A. it is already burned.
I do not believe in adoption.
No matter how much effort is put into the adopted child, the child carries the parents’ genes, which are often inferior since people who do abandon their children tend to be more stupid and irresponsible than others.
In Asia, only people from the same clan (or at least somehow related, like marriage or something) were adopted into a family since the person’s pedigree was known and there was no chance of ‘accidents’.
There was a law in Korea, where foundlings were assigned to be slaves of the family who was raising the child. (Korea kept slavery, legally until 1894, and in practice well into 1950s) That ensured an abandoned child’s chance of survival, while making the family who is raising it realize its economical value. When Western missionaries ended that practice, orphanages were run like slave institutions well into the 1980s.
In the Spanish speaking world, the tale of Marcelino, Pan y Vino (translated as Marcelino’s miracles) is known. Jose Maria Sanchez-Silva wrote the tale in 1950s. Being a son of an anarchist and abandoned to the streets during 1910s as a child, he somehow survived to adulthood and stayed in Republican Madrid during the Spanish Civil War, but he was wise enough to stick on writing children’s book and was not punished after the Falangist triumph.
It is a tale of Marcelino, who was abandoned at a monastery during 1940s, and raised by the monks. In a secret room Marcelino gives bread and wine (pan y vino) to a figure he imagines to be Jesus, who asks Marcelino a wish. Marcelino wants to be with his mother, and Jesus takes him to the heaven.
In other words, Marcelino has been locked into a room where he was given just bread and wine (in that part of world wine is like water), dies when a powerful monk, local politician or landowner was screwing him (either from malnutrition or the bigwig feeling like killing the boy), and the whole thing is hushed up as a ‘miracle’. Given the background of the author it is very unlikely that the tale is about a Catholic miracle, something he preferred not to mention during his lifetime (he even wrote sequels to this story. I don’t read Spanish so I don’t know how the author managed to produce sequels where the protagonists had been killed off.)
Such was how most abandoned children’s life ended, and yes, it is true that most of today’s pop is descended from the winners, since the losers’ genes perished long, long ago.
Klum, you write very well.
“Korea kept slavery, legally until 1894, and in practice well into 1950s” So few know this and fail to take it into account when analyzing Korea.
The Korean War was fought to save a backward, slave owning kleptocracy whose officers were holding arms against the Allies just a few years ago
USA had no business in Korea. It should be abandoned.
“No matter how much effort is put into the adopted child, the child carries the parents’ genes, which are often inferior since people who do abandon their children tend to be more stupid and irresponsible than others.”
This is saying the forbidden part out loud. They used to refer to children as being from good or bad stock, just like animals. When younger, I naively thought children a blank slate. I see certain behaviors and tendencies, both good and bad in my own children that clearly are from me. Likewise, certain tendencies from my wife, and our relatives. The more I observe my children and honestly compare them to their parents, and myself to my own forbears, the stronger my belief is that most, if not all of our behavior is genetically determined. It really calls into question free will. Yes, Yes, environment can shape the expression of the genetic material that is present, but the starting blocks of the physical and mental are set at birth.
“are set at birth.”
That was the conclusion Gregory Clark reluctantly came to looking at the life history of a very large number of people from the UK. If you want to read it and can’t find it, let me know, I think I saved a copy.
UK’s Hospitals In Total Collapse With Emergency Departments Reporting Waiting Times Of Over 2 Days.
https://x.com/EnemyInAState/status/1877382671673725220
Sorry, mistake on my part: MAKE THAT A NEAR 4 DAY WAIT…
https://x.com/EnemyInAState/status/1877383623482945606
4 days is a bit long for an emergency. You will have been room temperature for 2 days by the time they get to you. what do the rich do there?
Sounds like time for a private sector workaround to emerge, for the rich, at least.
Happening to a people who totally deserve such treatment.
Here is an interactive national live fire map based on satellite data:
https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=df8bcc10430f48878b01c96e907a1fc3
And the one shared by Tim just for California, which also shows regional evacuation notices:
https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents.html
I notice that the national live fire map (first link) seems to show a lot of fires in Cuba right now (besides quite few in the US).
Is this an exaggeration?
https://rmx.news/article/up-in-flames-ukraine-strikes-fuel-depot-crucial-to-moscows-plan-for-victory/
Up in flames: Ukraine strikes fuel depot crucial to Moscow’s plan for victory
“Damage to the oil base creates serious logistical problems for the strategic aviation of the Russian occupiers”
I noticed it too. I will report.
so, the press reports either a lot (first several Google links) or very little (several Yandex links). From the oblast admin web site:
1) they downed 11 incoming drones but of course it was a swarm
2) two firefighters killed while trying to subdue the fire. Most probably burned, since the injured one has burns over 25% of his body
3) fire will burn two days, so they expect to extinguish it today.
I think it was a severe fire for sure. Can’t tell how many barrels were hit. There is a refinery some 60 km from where I live, near it GPS does not work. So these drones must have AI guiding in the last several miles at least. I doubt Ukraine has the tech.
It is strange that could change the course of the war, because italian mainstream media that are all on Zelensky side, are not dancing for happiness.
From various sources it seems that Russia has lost many soldiers, but Ukraine have almost run out of soldiers and it is on very weak position.
On Reuters it appeared also the recent story of a full military Ukranian brigade that dasappeared during its training in France, because soldiers didn’t want to come back to war and dispersed here and there in France or on the way back.
Tomorrow Zelensky will be in Rome begging money, but Biden will be at home for your fire problems in California.
If Zelensky is so concerned about the future of his nation, I wonder why he doesn’t go to the front line and fight himself, instead of traveling the world twice a week and begging for money from the lobby of one five-star hotel after another?
(MSN – Intellinews)
“Hundreds from Ukraine’s elite foreign-trained brigade go AWOL as desertions mount”
“One of Ukraine’s flagship military units, the 155th Mechanised Brigade, trained in France and equipped with some of the best Western weaponry, has lost over 1,700 soldiers, who have abandoned their posts and gone AWOL, without firing a single shot, it was reported on January 5.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/war-and-conflicts/military-organizations/hundreds-from-ukraine-s-elite-foreign-trained-brigade-go-awol-as-desertions-mount/ar-AA1x5dMA
(RT)
“Broken arms and cocked guns: Ukraine’s forced mobilization escalates”
+ video
https://www.rt.com/russia/610567-ukraine-mobilization-violence-escalation/
Ukraine continues to have a lot of problems maintaining its army, even with the assistance of NATO.
The US backed South Vietnamese collapsed, the Afghan regime collapsed and so will Ukraine.
Russia is toast…😎. Even if they manage the rebuilding effort will exceed what they can afford and the death by a thousand cuts will do them in
The wealth is in the resources. If they have the resource stock, they have the wealth to rebuild. What it sounds like you’re saying is that western-financed sabotage/terrorism will do them in.
The problem may not be resources but demographics. It has been known for some time that Russia had a serious demographic problem. I don’t know if that has changed but in say the 1980’s Russia was on its way to death by advancing age.
Dennis L.
I think you consider the hopelessly inbred Amish as the solution
I live close to a lot of the Amish. The inbreeding appears to have had an effect. Not a handsome lot……
Russia has a far more traditional culture than we do here in the West, and the government makes an active effort to financially support child-bearing, so they are in a much more sustainable position demographically than the West, especially given we seem deadset on replacing native children with foreign transplants that hate us.
I think the very cold climate of Russia is a handicap. Too much energy must be used for heating.
Why would it exceed what they can afford?
Yo, It’s beginning to look a lot like 1929 before the Wall Street Crash
More than 4,500 freight-related layoffs slated for firms nationwide
Job cuts hit Big Lots, Ryder, FedEx, DMSI, Deliverimates
Noi Mahoney
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/more-than-4500-freight-related-layoffs-slated-for-firms-nationwide/amp
Layoffs continue to surge across freight-related companies in the U.S., with 4,511 recently announced by companies in Alabama, California, Maryland, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma and Pennsylvania.
Firms in the U.S. have announced supply chain-related layoffs totaling 9,746 workers over the last five months, according to companies filing Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act notices.
Thank God Amazon is doing well at least….sarcasm… they’ll have AI drones in the air delivery, Keith’s calculator has the math all figured out…just being a Normal Norman.
The people who deliver your Amazon packages are striking. Here’s why.
Drivers and delivery workers are trying to disrupt Amazon’s Christmas package deliveries by Ellen Ioanes Dec 20, 2024, 5:50 PM EST
More than a little disturbing. And Biden reportedly wants flags at half-masts the day that Trump is installed.
Why can’t we all just get along? Answer….
Not enough to go around ….
Got to get out my calculator for more detail and watch the original Star Trek with Mister Spock
Why can’t we all just get along? Answer….
Not enough to go around ….
well, put.
‘The Great Pandemic Is Coming’: Ex-CDC Chief Warns of Looming Bird Flu Threat
“Robert Redfield, who led the CDC during the first Trump administration, spoke with The Daily Signal last year about bird flu. He predicted bird flu, also known as H5N1, would be “much more catastrophic than the COVID pandemic.”
https://www.dailysignal.com/2025/01/07/former-cdc-chief-warns-bird-flu-could-be-more-catastrophic-than-covid
Let’s do what humankind has done for the past 100,000 years, that is nothing.
At least we’ll have plenty of oil left. (cringe)
And more importantly plenty of microplastics along with it…well put, Mob…
“For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.”
-Revelations 18:23
Revelations 18 is the chapter that seems to warn of a coming collapse, similar to that of ancient Babylon. Earlier in Chapter 18, it talks about there being no buyers for the goods sold merchants, even slaves. Of course, slaves were the energy products of the day. We have problems with merchants deceiving us now, too.
Yeah trying to live on minimum wage here in the United States is the equivalent of being a slave….slave wages
#BREAKING: Hollywood Hills fire spreading quickly towards Hollywood Blvd
What if it burns down the Hollywood sign down?
https://x.com/Worldsource24/status/1877172477710798916
This is live update link:
https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/la-fires-live-updates-2nd-fire-escalates-quickly/?id=117448186
100,000 evacuate as 5 Los Angeles wildfires blaze
TR at C&E blog .
” Great news today! After the California fires are over, think of all the jobs there will be cleaning up the debris, rebuilding the infrastructure & all the homes & retail businesses. BTW, all the workers won’t be getting overtime, Trump said so. Fuck peoples lives & property, “Show me the money!” Can’t wait to purchase all the burned property for pennies on the dollar. I’m already buying all the Florida condos & single family homes from those who didn’t have insurance & can’t afford to rebuild or pay the taxes & insurance on their new construction. Getting rich on the backs of the economic stupids is the American way. Hawaii is too far away, for me to have bought all the fire destroyed properties there, bet somebody gets rich for small investments.
More great news, the 51st, 52nd states: Canada, Greenland. Am I the only one that knows that the UK will be the 53rd & all of Europe will be the 54th states. U.S.A. ,U.S.A., U.S.A.
Because of my intimate relations with all the imaginary gods in the sky all the fires in CA. have stopped, Santa Ana Winds are now at zero. More proof that thoughts & prayers work. Oh,we also have global peace.
Adding a cup of truth to a pot of bullshit is not always appreciated because the truth can be bitter. 😉
Even the academy award winning actor, James Wood, had no home insurance since being dropped by a major player some four months ago …that’s too bad..
Los Angeles wildfire: Homeowner insurance policies were scrapped en masse before the tragedy, actor James Woods claims
Woods shared that “one of the major insurances companies canceled all the policies in our neighborhood
https://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/los-angeles-wildfire-homeowner-insurance-policies-were-scrapped-en-masse-before-the-tragedy-actor-james-woods-claims/3711039/
Ah, lovely modelling by the Corporations, bravo…
Geography: insurance is at its best shared risk, if one builds in an area with excessive risk perhaps not reasonable to request those in lesser risk areas to share that risk.
Dennis L..
“100,000 evacuate as 5 Los Angeles wildfires blaze”
LA has 10 million, so that is one our of 100. Around 5000 structures lost. Lives lost is in single digits so far.
And I am OK, Hurst fire was about a mile to the north of where i live. Lived in Tucson for long enough to see the Catalina mountains burn twice.
Good to hear you are OK, Keith! A mile ain’t much land as a buffer and my father lived in Tuscon too, visited him before he died and never went back
I’m very glad to hear you are OK, Keith. Although life must be very stressful for all concerned just now in your part of the world.
Anthony Hopkins has not been as lucky as you. His house has burned down. If he turns up at your door, please consider putting him up for the night.
Mel Gibson has also reported losing his house to the fires while he was away doing a Joe Rogan podcast. If he turns up, probably best to tell him you are already full.
There are cries that these fires are the work of climate change (Barbara Streisand) or climate deniers (Jim Jahmusch), or arson, or Chinese drones, or DEI hires and budget cuts at the Fire Department or failure to manage the woodlands, or the unusually wet weather in 2024 that allowed more brush to grow, or space-based lasers zapping properties so that the mega mega rich can kick the merely mega rich out of Malibu and take it over, or the global elite can move the middle classes off their plots of ocean-view land into tower block condominiums, or just weather—bearing in mind similar fires have raged numerous times in the past in Malibu, most particularly 1938 and 1961 if my memory serves me well.
Any news on Barbara Streisand’s house yet?
Tim, you left out the fact that LA donated fire equipment to Ukraine in 2022.
Unfortunately, the lesbian LA fire chief is much better at spending money on DEI and waving an LQBTQ flag than running a fire department.
I listen to their press conferences every day. The common theme is that we are all going to stand together strong and supporting each other. whenever the press asks about incompetent failures. of the mayor, the fire chief, and every other official. The response is that we are focused on saving lives right now and we will not answer questions relating to our incompetence until “later”. The guy in charge of the emergency notification system cannot even explain how they screwed up and sent evacuation orders to EVERY person in the city or county by mistake.
Quite entertaining!
” incompetent failures.”
I live in LA.
There is nothing anyone could have done better than they did.
The wind in our neighborhood was about 70 mph. Green leaves go crunch it is so dry.
“or just weather”
Dana https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_Years_Before_the_Mast describes wind that blew the ship he was on hundreds of miles off the coast in the 1830s. Wind storms like that are just part of the local weather.
Fires too.
Well, Jesse, when you hire a DEI Fire Department, you get a DEI firefighting service.
Is there something that makes lesbians better qualified to do this line of work than straight women, trans women, or good old-fashioned macho men? Call me old-fashioned, or even something nasty, but I find this all very reminiscent of the New Zealand Navy.
Keith, I have noticed that 2024 has been declared the hottest year ever, and personal experience confirms that it was indeed the hottest in my neck of the woods in all the decades I’ve lived here. I also not that in addition to the LA fires this last week, there were also unusually destructive wind-driven fires on Maui in August 2023, and of course, the hurricane-induced damage that struck particularly hard in the mountains of North Carolina last year.
How much tragedies of this kind were caused by natural forces, how much by human agency, and how much by poor planning or failure to prepare, is something people will always debate. While I don’t share Barbara Streisand’s views on climate change or Jim Jahmusch’s on climate deniers being to blame, I do concede that the weather has been a bit extreme recently.
In places where strong dry winds capable of fanning flames on the scale we’ve just seen in LA can be expected to occur at least once every few decades, it might be a good idea to abandon timber-frame homes and go for concrete. It was the concrete buildings (often banks) that remained standing after fire-bombings of Japanese cities in WW2. How many private homes in your part of the world are concrete? I’m sure it has its drawbacks, but at least it won’t burn down.
“but at least it won’t burn down.”
That depends. Does it have a wood roof? Attic spaces (unless they have leaks) are usually tinder dry. Unless they have fine metal screens over the vents that keep the attic from getting too hot, flying embers get in and set the roof on fire from the inside.
Automatic roll down reflectors can keep wooden siding from getting too hot from radiant heat, but does such fire armor make economic sense? Not sure where I would start. This is more Gail’s field.
From the WSJ:
Wildfires Are Making Investors Nervous About Los Angeles Area Utility Again
Southern California’s Edison International owes its survival to luck, at least in part
A huge number of fires are caused by above-ground power lines that have problems. Burying power lines costs six to ten times as much, according to something I read long ago. It seems to be inevitable that power lines cause a lot of fires. When this happens in a dry area with a lot of wind, there is a real problem.
I am guessing that the fires in the Hollywood area will tend to move acting and other moving making skills to the Atlanta area.
Atlanta already has a major presence in the making of movies, television shows and advertisements. Its costs are said to be a lot lower than Hollywood. The fires will tend to accelerate a change that is already happening. I know a woman who gets lots of day assignments for non-speaking parts in this industry.
AI could change that significantly. If it did, would we know the difference?
Dennis L.
The people who lose their acting jobs would know the difference. So would the writers.
I think at this time, AI does better on writing text (including scripts) than it does on making people who can consistently act out the parts in a script. So it might take away a few writer jobs, I would think.
When an entrepreneur feels that his business is in decline, he goes into politics. That is the case of Elon Musk and his desperate actions. And that was and is the case if Donald Trump and his desperate actions. Real estates, cars – these businesses are in trouble.
You might be right. I hadn’t thought of that.
Think about what Musk has done from a business standpoint.
He has turned many of his worst critics into his biggest fans.
Last refuge of a scoundrel.
Not wrong.
Desperate actions?
It’s the cast of Desperate Housewives I feel sorry for, diving into their swimming pools or trapped in their Jacuzzis as they try to escape the Hollywood Inferno.
A wicked conspiracy hypothesis comes to mind. I will not go as far as to call it a theory. When the movie industry and the TV industry and music industry feels that its business is in decline, it goes into the arson business, burns itself down, claims gazillions in insurance payouts, and then emigrates to avoid having to live through four years of Trump, Musk and their desperate actions.
It wouldn’t be the first time. Just ask Lloyd’s of London, who will be shelling out big for the LA fires, just as they did when the Titanic sank, the Twin Towers got destroyed, and the COVID-19 plandemic got into full swing.
oh no
you mean the Titanic sank through a conspiracy of iceberg manufacturers?
shoulda guessed
though it coulda been lifeboat builders— after that, the number of lifeboats on ships doubled—so it makes perfect sense,
never pass on a good theory Tim
Good take on the lifeboat makers, Norman. I would never have thought of that one.
By the way, the offending iceberg came from the Greenland ice sheet. Trump is planning to annex Greenland so that he can make Transatlantic Liners Safe Again from such dangers.
good to see that you have the problem well in hand tim
Norm
I thought it was the steam industry because the ship was powered by coal or vice versa.
enough steam can melt icebergs—though thats Keith’s territory really, not mine