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The underlying problems are energy-related
A few years ago, I analyzed the growth of world energy consumption, breaking it down into (a) the growth in energy consumption needed to support the growth in world population, and (b) the growth in energy consumption available to support higher standards of living. This analysis covered the period 1820 to 2020. I found that periods of low growth tended to coincide with wars, depressions, and collapses. This is not surprising in a world economy governed by the laws of physics. Every part of the economy requires adequate energy of appropriate kinds.
In this post, I analyze data for 5-year periods, ending in 2024, to obtain an updated view of recent energy consumption and population trends. My conclusion is that total energy consumption growth in recent years has not been sufficient to forestall major problems. A more detailed analysis reveals that growth in certain vital resources (the diesel+jet fuel part of oil supply, and critical minerals related to electricity production and usage) is particularly problematic.
These findings indicate that the economy is already beginning to hit energy limits. Because of energy-related shortages that are already being encountered, national economies are beginning to act like the players in a game of musical chairs, with one too few chairs. Leaders have taken to building up armies, cutting off exports of critical minerals, imposing tariffs, and bombing other countries, even though these actions might not make sense to peace-loving citizens.
[1] Figure 2 is a stacked bar chart showing similar indications to Figure 1.
The total of the red and blue segments is the average annual increase in world energy consumption over a particular 10-year period. The blue amounts (usually at the bottom) are those necessary to provide services at the same level as in the past, given the population increase. The red amounts (usually at the top) are determined by subtraction. Large red caps are good, while red caps below the zero line are very bad. They indicate that the per-capita energy supply is declining.
[2] The largest increases in Figure 2 correspond to favorable economic times.
The vertical text in Figure 1 provides examples of how low points in energy consumption have proven to be very bad. In this section, I show that the opposite is also true: High points tend to correspond to very good times economically.
One peak in Figures 1 and 2 coincides with the 1901 to 1910 period. This period corresponds to early electrification and advances in the mechanization of agriculture. It was before 1913 when the United Kingdom hit peak coal, limiting the amount of coal that could be profitably extracted. Germany hit peak hard coal shortly before World War II. After peak coal was reached, less coal was available per capita. Leaders felt the pressure of “not enough coal to go around” and opted for war.
In Figures 1 and 2, rapid energy growth occurred after World War II, during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. The lower peak in the 2001-2010 period coincided with much greater use of coal after China was added to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in late 2001. High-wage countries started transferring their industry to China because costs would be lower in two ways: Wage costs were lower, and coal was an inexpensive fuel, reducing energy costs. Furthermore, by transferring industry, including manufacturing and mining, to China, high-wage countries could also lower their own CO2 emissions, as required by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
We would expect the patterns we are seeing in Figures 1 and 2 if the world economy is governed by the laws of physics. The availability of plenty of inexpensive energy, of kinds that match built infrastructure, is what is needed to allow the world economy to grow.
[3] Figure 3 shows more recent world energy data organized by 5-year periods. It shows how small the “red caps” of the types leading to favorable economic outcomes have been in the last decade.
The latest two 5-year periods comprise the years 2015 to 2024. The short red caps on these two 5-year periods mean that the economy is already being squeezed in the direction of not-enough-to go-around.
[4] Viewed on this same basis, diesel and jet fuel supplies are being squeezed even more than the overall supply of energy products.
Diesel and jet fuel are somewhat similar in composition. They are grouped together in some energy reports as “middle distillates.” They are relatively heavy oil products that come out of oil refineries. If there is a shortage of one, there likely is a shortage of the other as well.
Diesel and jet fuel are of concern because, since 2015, there has been an actual shrinkage in the amount of these fuels available relative to population. In fact, every five-year period since the 2000 to 2004 period has shown less growth in diesel and jet fuel than in the overall world energy supply. (Compare Figures 3 and 4.)
The low growth of diesel+jet fuel is particularly concerning because these fuels are essential for international transportation. With too little of these oil types, trade across the Atlantic and Pacific needs to shrink back. The physics of the situation makes tariffs look like an attractive solution for reducing trade.
Another concern is that diesel is essential for food production and transportation. Even if some other types of energy are available in plentiful supply, we cannot get along without food. While wind and solar are popular energy types today, they are not very useful for either international transport or for operating modern agricultural equipment.
[5] The underlying problem is that populations tend to outgrow their resource bases, including energy supplies.
The issue of the world not being able to support endlessly rising human population is an issue that no politician, auto maker, or economist wants to mention. The standard work-around is to show energy supplies without using an adjustment to a per-capita basis. This tends to make the energy situation look much better than it really is. Figure 6 is an example of such a chart.
Figure 6 emphasizes how modest the recent add-ons to the fossil fuel supply really are. These add-ons are made possible by fossil fuels; they would tend to disappear if fossil fuels were to disappear. Nuclear, which is the largest of the add-ons, requires both uranium and fossil fuels. The category “Wind+Solar” is the tiny green stripe at the top of Figure 6. In 2024, Wind+Solar amounted to 2.8% of world energy supply.
[6] It is easy to make electricity look like a growth area that can continue its pattern forever.
Figure 7 is a world electricity chart that, like Figure 6, is not on a per-capita basis.
There are a few details that are easy to miss:
(a) Current electricity production is quite small compared to the total energy supply. As counted by the Energy Institute, electricity amounts to only about 20% of total energy, varying by year and by part of the world. It is already incorporated in Figure 6.
(b) Almost all the non-fossil fuel part of the energy supply (“Add-Ons”) is electricity. In Figure 6, the only type of non-fossil energy shown that is not electricity is biofuels. These are mostly ethanol and biodiesel.
(c) Another detail that is easy to miss is the fact that the growth in the world’s electricity supply, as shown in Figure 7, has been almost exclusively outside the Advanced Economies–that is, members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The Advanced Economies group includes the US, most of Europe, Japan, Australia, and several other countries.
Figure 8 shows the growth in electricity generation separately for the Advanced Economies and the Other Economies. The chart shows that generation of electricity by the Advanced Economies grew until 2007 but flattened after that date. Electricity generation by the Other Economies has grown the entire time since 1985. The rate of electricity production growth of Other Economies became noticeably more rapid after China joined the WTO in 2001.
Also, population growth since 1985 has disproportionately taken place in Other Economies, as contrasted with Advanced Economies.
[7] In the Advanced Economies, electricity production has recently been falling on a per capita basis, making a shift to greater electrification seem difficult.
A major issue is that the Advanced Economies are already seeing their electricity supplies per capita declining as shown on Figure 10 below. This is true for all five of the selected economies. Some of the lower consumption is due to efficiency improvements, but some is the result of the offshoring of jobs and industries to low-wage countries.
In comparison, electricity production per capita of other economies, with typically lower wages than Advanced Economies and often accompanied by more rapid population growth, has tended to rise, as shown on Figure 11.
The four “Other Economies” are less similar to each other than the five Advanced Economies. But what is striking is that they all have shown growth in per-capita electricity production since 1999. In 2024, Saudi Arabia’s electricity production had risen to about the per-capita level of the US’s electricity production. By 2024, China’s per-capita electricity production had surpassed that of both the EU and the UK. Russia was part of the Soviet Union before the latter collapsed in 1991. Once Russia’s economy had started recovering from the collapse, about 1999, its per-capita electricity production also began to rise.
[8] Other issues are also making a continued shift to electrification appear difficult, particularly for the Advanced Economies.
Trying to work around using fossil fuels leads to the need for more specialized minerals to produce high tech electrical goods and electricity transmission. The problem faced by Advanced Economies is that they produce practically none of these minerals; they must import them. The US has a long list of minerals it considers critical.
Some of these minerals aren’t rare in the earth’s crust. Part of the problem is the lack of industrial capacity in Advanced Economies today, as industry has been moved overseas to reduce costs and local CO2 emissions. For example, the US used to be a major producer of aluminum, but this production has dwindled; other countries, including China, can produce aluminum at lower cost.
Another issue is that China produces the majority of quite a few of these minerals. The US, and probably the other Advanced Economies, had planned to buy what they needed on the world market. Now, production is not keeping up with the amount the world could easily use. In 2025, China announced export restrictions on some minerals, including gallium, germanium and antimony. It has become clear that if Advanced Economies want to have adequate supplies of high-demand minerals (including silver, copper, platinum, rare earth minerals, and uranium, among others), they need to start producing them themselves.
Diesel is used in extracting many of these minerals. If diesel is in short supply, that adds another layer of problems. All these issues may lie behind President Trump’s interest in Greenland.
[9] We don’t hear about these issues partly because academic researchers live in ivory towers, and partly because politicians don’t dare explain the issues to voters.
Part of the problem is that economists don’t understand how tightly the various parts of the world economy are interconnected through the laws of physics. Economists tend to believe that if there is a shortage, prices will rise, and these higher prices will solve nearly all problems. This is not necessarily the case. Buyers cannot purchase more than they can afford. Prices may spike temporarily and then fall back. Production of fossil fuels or minerals may end because prices do not rise high enough, for long enough, for producers to depend upon the higher prices for the long term.
In the case of a shortage, most people assume that the only change the economy will make is in prices. However, the economy is tightly interconnected. It can move production to a different part of the world, where wages and energy costs are lower. An indirect result, in the country losing jobs, may be more wage and wealth disparity. The US seems to be experiencing this issue now, with fewer young people being able to find a job that pays well.
Needless to say, politicians aren’t willing to admit, “We have difficulties for which we can see no solution.” Even leaders of universities are reluctant to suggest that there might be major problems ahead. They don’t want to frighten students or their parents. University officials want all problems to be ones their students can work on, with the hope of solving them in the next few years.
[10] What is happening now is similar to the outcome of a game of musical chairs, when there is one fewer chair than the number of players.
In the game of musical chairs, players walk around a group of chairs until the music stops. At the end of each round, one chair is removed, leaving one fewer chair than the number of players. In the next round, the remaining players all scramble for the chairs available, which often leads to small fights over who gets a chair. This not-enough-to-go-around problem explains the poor relations we see today among countries and political parties. It is also the underlying reason for the interest in imposing tariffs and in bombing other countries.
Financial markets tend to perform well during periods of economic growth. However, if certain kinds of essential resources are in short supply, this will tend to hold back growth. Debt defaults and falling stock markets could result. For these reasons, problems in financial markets may be ahead.
Major governmental changes may be ahead. Representative governments require more energy than simpler types of organizations, such as dictatorships. Furthermore, citizens do not like disorder; they may want to overthrow leaders who seem to allow too much disorder. They may vote them out of office or even try to assassinate them. The problem of resource inadequacy is structural, however. Getting rid of a particular leader doesn’t necessarily help the situation.
Everywhere in the world, at least part of today’s problem is that there are not enough jobs available that pay well. Economists have told us to expect high prices if there are shortages. In a way, not having enough jobs that pay well is the opposite problem. But from a physics standpoint, the result is the same. Only a few people can afford many of the goods that are available. The economists’ misinterpretation of what is going wrong further confuses people’s understanding of our current situation.
Mainstream media needs to cater to advertisers. Because of this issue, we cannot expect them to tell us what is happening. That task seems to fall to bloggers, like me. I try to write an article approximately every month. I hope that the graphs and other figures I have presented in this article will help readers understand why we are currently seeing more types of disruptions, such as tariffs and bombings.
Great read
https://no01.substack.com/cp/185980275?_x_tr_hist=true
“If it gets bad it’ll be another lock down scenario, instead of the virus it’ll be you can’t move out of your area due to fuel shortages (15 minute cities anyone) and those that will not be able to get to work will be able to claim money from the government to subsidize their income (they want the monetary system to brake so they can bring in the CBDC, ever notice how they are not paying back the debt and they keep spending).
We are a fare way’s off that though, give it a month or two if things do not improve.
https://x.com/NewsProspector/status/2030202587811598679
Gas stations “running out” down under.
Guy finds 3 already!!
https://x.com/rn_lilydale/status/2030387885082603699
Iran war sends Aussies into meltdown as OIL Prices Skyrocket – EV Sales SURGE
The Electric Vikingf
348K subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntcp3eK-qOk
Escalating conflict involving Iran has pushed global oil prices sharply higher, sending petrol prices soaring across Australia and triggering panic buying at fuel stations. With Brent crude jumping and supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz under threat, many Australians are now reconsidering fuel-dependent cars—accelerating interest in electric vehicles as drivers try to escape volatile petrol costs.
Yep, some of the early real world application of “solid state batteries” now enters the market, for now in posh motorcycles segment not full sized carz yet (perhaps hybrids soon). The batt features 100k cycle life and made of non rare-earth materials. In that fashion YOU ONLY* will be set for decades before some particular sub segment fails on you (PV array, power electronics etc).
Too good to be true perhaps doesn’t apply anymore, so rather too late for the 8bln. ?
—
* not the overall infrastructure around you
Long queues are forming at petrol stations in Pakistan as shortage fears grip the country 🇵🇰 ⛽️
📈 Fuel and diesel prices were hiked 20% on Friday — one of the biggest increases ever
⚠️ Oil prices around the world are rising as the conflict in the Middle East curbs deliveries
https://x.com/SStapczynski/status/2030185717507444867
A lull intermezzo in the war?
Nope!
Yes, new strikes on Iran over the previous night (7-8th march). They deleted one of the largest refineries in the country (south of Tehran), plus various fuel depots all across Iran. The footage is apocalyptic.
I think they are trying to go scorched earth to try and end the war soon. If this keeps up much longer we will be in 1929….they are a scared tiger. We only see one side of the news . How is Iran attacks?
Yes, the formula for asymmetric still holds, up to a point.
But is it worth it?
Why Iran meticulously built all that infrastructure over decades and then let it destroy in few days, weeks.
It was their decision NOT to accelerate their defense program, it was their decision NOT sign direct alliance (umbrella) with RU-CHN.
Have you look at some of the videos from the night? There is one instance where the fuel / feedstock from bombed out refinery spilled down through sewage system, so then entire avenue inside city is on fire.. looks like cheesy scene for bolly-wood WWIII production but it is for real.
This is hell.
Compare contrast to Kim jr., he is sitting pretty, no piled up bodies of dead school children or burned city infrastructure around, so far.
So, that’s by definition sheer failure of policy, mindset, ideology. If Iran managed that Gulfies are now w.out fresh salads moved daily by airliners, well perhaps good enough asymmetry, right..
Jr you’re having another blame the victim moment as with the first ICE murder. See the pattern.
Reante> not sure in what frame of reference you placed that victim? I simply posit grave mistakes done by Iran’s admin, not enjoying in their suffering.
Here, great fetish video of those shiny re-entry vehicles and the joy provided, the lyrics says something to the effect
” .. and also I’d like to TELL (you) ! .. ”
Play it on full screen with speakers on and on repeat..
https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/2030660357019103645
Sadly, MIRVs have been disct. as of ~2014 supposedly.. But surely could be stored separately on reserve.
Not sure what other nation’s policy on this could be.
Nice fitting pic to the previous video.
https://blog.ucs.org/emacdonald/the-end-of-mirvs-for-u-s-icbms/
Funny thanks. I just think that Shia reluctance to adopt that technology on spiritual grounds along with the fact that Iran is sitting on oil an NK isn’t should be the major part of the equation.
In the same vein, for the most part of settlements in Iran they don’t have the winters like NorthKorea either.
NK being rich in coal, especially anthracite. Simply, they were destined for full scale industrialization at some favorable entry point.
While the oil / natgas seems as too easy-cushy resource (curse) for the inhabitants of moderate/warmish weather regions.
Doesn’t sound good!
IATM> yes, that’s the often debated “3rd time the charm scenario” how to rock (and sink!) the boat with peons: 1. virus thing 2. war with RU 3. fuel/diesel shortages/ via ME war => overall reset/cbdc nirvana reached
If it is legit hats off to the perpetrators for their nerves of steel and scamming perseverance.
If this ended on early next week; what would the ramifications still be? Have we passed the point of no return? I know we have been heading towards collapse for some time but…
“Have we passed the point of no return? ”
Answer ; Yes .
https://oil-price.net/ — both WTI & Brent over $90 — will this collide with the economy?
Yes. Golman Sachs just said $100 will cause demand destruction but that’s high. If $90 didn’t cause demand destruction then the price would have been 90 before the Big Nuclear Scare. Steve Ludlum proved all this back in 2014 with his Triangle of Doom.
https://www.economic-undertow.com/tag/triangle-of-doom/
Thanks El Mar . I use to follow Steve but he writes so very few times that I stopped . Thanks for reminding that he is still active .
I expect they will. Worldwide, there will be a problem. The exception may be some exporters who will benefit from the higher prices.
Price is one thing… but the fact that a huge percentage of exported (as opposed to locally sourced) oil and gas is about to be shuttered…. with those refineries and compressors shutdown indefinitely… means it doesn’t matter if the price halved.
Price is irrelevant is there is nothing to burn.
I cannot image a way that this slows down and reverses. There is no possible path to peace negotiation, let alone an agreement. This world is going to have to get used to starvation…. again.
Even if the war would stop, ships carrying oil will not be able to get insurance with respect to “war risk.” Oil is likely to be shut in for an extended period, making it difficult or impossible to restart.
Ship captains say that they will not venture through the Strait, and endanger their crews, until the war ends regardless of insurance.
Presumably the oil and gas storage facilities are being taken out with strikes, which means that the Gulf states will have to stop production sooner as it cannot be exported or stored.
the oil era will not end through shortage of oil
it will end through fighting over what’s left
(NP years ago)
Antonio Turiel from Spain linked this blog entry. It explains thoroughly the predicament we are in. Hope it helps to understand all this. https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-invisible-siege-how-insurance
I agree the article is good. Someone else referenced it recently, too.
I agree that supply is more important than price.
The amount of oil out of the ground dictates how much economic activity can happen. A 10% shut-of oil will create a ~3-3.5% decline in world GDP if energy ~ GDP (since oil is 32% of all energy) and the same idea applies to LNG supplies.
Maybe we can have another pandemic to mask the root issue.
If debts are unable to be serviced due to economic contraction, and with confidence lost as the pipelines, ports are refineries are picked off….. I wonder if it could be far far worse than what your calculation suggests.
We have been due for something for ages. As far as cover goes… this could be a good one to clear out the financial duff.
In 2008 oil was $139 in today dollars that would be $210
So we still might have a ways to go
And what happened after 2008? Major crash. Such pricing is unsustainable.
Yes but we are still a long ways off is my point. It will come just not yet
World population in 2008 was 6.7 billion . Today is 8 .23 billion.
World total debt was $ 173 Trillion .Today is 348 Trillion ;
There were no major wars in 2008 . Today we have Ukraine , Iran , Pak- Afghanistan , Sudan etc etc ; Oh , the SOH was open .
Should I go on ?
Yes, we all expect this to be much worse than 2008. that is why we are in this forum after all.
08 or 26—all part of the same collapse…
many expected it to come as a single crash—it doesnt work like that, its intermittent–sporadic—been trying to put that over for years now…
if youre made homeless and living under a motorway bridge, the crash has arrived for you….
if you still have a home and an income, it hasnt—yet.
but it will, because we are living in a debt-increase economy, not an energy-increase economy..
because of that, the entire infinite-growth system is a bubble, and will pop.
right now wars of denial are being fought—burning up the last of our energy reserves, because we have godfreaks running the show.
Nice. I was just saying to drb that the Hand will target excess refinery capacity in the ME just like it has in Russia. Here’s the latest ZH article about Israel hitting an Iranian refinery and Iran retaliating on the Haifa refinery. Iran has about 1mbpd excess refining capacity compared to domestic consumption, so I figure that the Hand can take Iranian refining capacity down to half (or whatever) of current consumption if it chooses to. And Israeli refining capacity is in excess because Israel as a state is increasingly looking like it’s going away altogether.
So what we have is not the headless, no one’s driving the bus, Export Land Model of Collapse. What we have is an intelligent counter to the Export Land Model.
WAR IS PEACE, except this time it’s actually true.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-vows-hit-loser-iran-very-hard-pezeshkian-apologizes-gulf-even-irgc-attacks
This doesn’t look good at all!
Alexander gives his latest daily overview of the situation.
> Russia Aids Iran Target US Bases; Oil Crisis, Gulf States Call Russia, US Eases Sanctions; Putin Iran
This war can really benefit Russia. Higher oil prices are just what they need and want. Europe is the loser in this mess that is why France has sent two aircraft carriers to the region. Too little too late.
What is wrong with Alexander’s eyes? They look to be half-closed. His nose looks swollen. Is he being got at, or is he using a cheap AI avatar that looks handicapped?
Hi has a cold, or something like that, perhaps.
I always noticed. One or more of the vitamin B deficiencies. I used to have it too. A little nutritional yeast in your kefir will make it go away. Or a little liver.
Yep, he who keeps the covidenko vitamin+ protocols running up to this point wins. Actually, one Doc advised me when sneezing don’t be afraid to lite overdosing that humanoid body like: 300-500% daily of B intake for a moment.. it repels bugs in the summer also..
Alexander is partially blind. I am assuming that his nose is simply plump as part of his phenotype.
Last time I saw a nose like that it was on a koala.
Things are going out of control — why did Trump’s niece call him “the world’s most dangerous man”?
What happened to bio-weapons? They were all the rage six to two years ago, now silence.
We do have Sam Altman squeaking that he can make them for his customers as a desperate attempt to get massive funding for his failing business.
I’ve always worried about bio weapons ever since I saw twelve monkeys. It seems with crispr and technology that it could easily be developed . How do you keep from killing yourself
1. It works both ways.
2. I think they are afraid that if US begins to use bioweapons they will use their own.
Look, the CIA worked tirelessly for 8 years in 19 labs all along Russia’s border. You did your best but they do not work.
If BAU continued till 2030 the gap between the advanced world and the rest would have been so great that it would have been insurmountable for ever, a permanent dictatorship of today’s winners for eternity for all practical purposes.
Unfortunately they talked too fast. The so called Project 2030, Initiative 2030 or whatever, announced itself too fast.
So the Hordes had to make a move, but there were no suitable places to do so. The Ukraine war is in its 5th year with no end in sight.
However, both Trump and Netanyahu are not young, and the latter faced political problems back home. So they did something which seemed to be quite easy.
I don’t think it was a great idea to fall into the Hordes’ trap, and now the Hordes might have a good chance to snatch a victory on the jaws of defeat.
I’m also thinking BAU is eroding too fast. I was also hoping for a 2030 timestamp.
Specially because Europe’s loss is “everybody else’s” surplus.
But then, 2 things:
1. The USA is STARVING. Oil prices getting higher, shale peaking, no heavy crude. I just came from Zero Hedge and there were many news talking about the energy glut – they’re only thinking in the Hormuz closure context, but we know it’s beyond that. By the way, the Hormuz closure menace won”t happen, it is too important and consequential to happen, some kind of compromise will be held for the oil to continue to flow. This also puts a countdown to this war, as it cannot continue for months without destroying the global economy. Something has to give.
2. China… Is aslo collapsing too fast. Internal and External demand is shrinking, and its industrial sectors closing. From where I’m from, cheap “Chinese goods” were THE thing for about 10 years now, and were propelling economic activity for low and medium income commerce, truly making people stay afloat, and this is now all gone. I fear for essentials, such as drugs.
There’s clearly an economic bust going on, and a crisis coming this year.
Question is: How will it develop? Another Covid-style “lockdown” restrictions? Governments are censoring the internet, are they preparing to make a move? Will this crisis be “the final one”? We all thought Covid might have been, but it wasn’t.
This is making me nuts because I don’t know if I should continue with my investments or sell it all and go full retreat to my countryside home.
Have you talked to a banker, insurance agent, gov / municipal services official, or any modern society deskjockey.. as of lately.. ?
All such admin IT tasks now done in already “half-the time” unstable tablets linked from cloud (databases), govs having serious digital-currency fall back plans, also incl. rationing for the end consumers. So, it won’t work in either case for the long term.
We don’t know – is it coming right now this very moment, but the flip out into very different impoverished society will be very fast indeed, literally over-night. And btw. seeking recluse in the country-side won’t help you much, with the various energy and material embargoes / shortages making the machines there non operable (at least in former intensity).
Moreover, should you even have some kind of ~permies paradise of several dozens acres all dialed-in by now.. well tough luck you will be simply expropriated, one day a big honcho with his goons entourage drops there in his helicopters, and you will be lucky to kept preserved there only as a foreman-slave at best.
That’s how it always worked during collapses, obviously under bit different draperies of the given historical era..
The problem is most people don’t see the collapse. They see it happening to other people. They think well I have my pension etc
Yes, as many of us here voiced there frustration already, we “in the know” also partly failed in this regard (me incl. ).
I was of the opinion (guesstimate) there is more time to slack on the western surpluses magic carpet ride so to speak. Evidently, or most likely this ends now, or it will be at least very severely curtailed down in terms of further supply chains reliability and energy allowances..
Basically, for now the best ~10yrs outlook ahead for the affluent countries looks like there will be perhaps some ~variety and amount of food available, eventually some winter months (NOT all guaranteed) of heating provided, and under gasoline rationing mandates some fuel for private fleet (forget about diesel) chiefly for local errands only (forget regional – or even long distance joy-rides). That’s all gov-doable as of now, toll gates, scanning license plates, perhaps fuel allowance per profession (job importance-priority) etc.
Whoah there JR. Don’t appreciate you going Fast Eddy on the tried and true homesteading plan. A helicopter in the nighttime is a big red blob of a sitting duck in the air, to an infrared night vision scope,and the people in it are red blob sitting ducks out in an open field if it’s lucky enough to land upright. But then again you folks without guns have a different calculus than us rambo Yankees. Shoot first ask questions later. Frontier politics. No alarms and no surprises, please.
Yes, that swarm of landing helicopters was meant kind of an outlier show-off example, obviously only the few, the top of top permies would experience such a spectacular hometurf takeover. More or less mundane farm settlements would be expropriated in the dull way by wheeled intrusion – also perhaps with some token acts of defiance you alluded to.
As likely mentioned before or to clarify again I don’t own or live on such “fully self-sustained place” – I just noted the utmost fragility of it – few can appreciate.
That’s large part why ruins follow civs regularly – as oligarchs, potentates, and mercenary soldiers are rarely good hands-on stewards of the land. Which in itself is a strange theoretic make believe concept, even the best permies if they engage in trade or swapping of produce means their soil in fact moves out of the establishment which equals soil depletion. At best this is masked by various elaborate workarounds slowing this very process. As it is impossible to live w.out trading surplus at our level of ~development.
In short it’s like comparing say Corsican, Romanian or ME hill peasants (thousands yrs of cont. agri abuse) on mere fractional millimeters of top soil vs. meters of black rich soil under some farms in RU. The difference is only in [ time space ], all will be eventually destroyed by these dangerous humanoids.
Self-defense requires a critical mass of hunters and farmers organizing and manning checkpoints. I purposely live in an area with only four road entry points, as do other people here. But, yes, if it’s military raids we’re talking about then that’s another kettle of fish. But in all likelihood, by the time it came to that, the costs of raiding these hills would outweigh the benefits. The Bible sez head for the hills because there ain’t much in em.
And so it is for permie trading. If the costs outweigh the benefits then don’t do it. A person doesn’t need much, JR. Adequate space and, therefore, calories, and water and wood, and fire lighting capability. The sun and and the rain, basically, along with hard work and careful husbandry.
Name, I can’t imagine how pathetic you must feel right now. Not knowing what to do. Karma’s a bitch.
Hell yeah, but I think it’s normal to be like that, no one can predict the future, we all just have expectations…
Thing is, if I liquidate everything that I have now and *nothing* happens this time, I’ll be committing economic suicide.
I have stakes in lumber companies, hotels and commercial rental. Not stocks, shares.
I think I’m going to stay only with lumber. Betting on a new commodity supercicle inflation, just before the final deflation death spiral.
Hotels and Rents are just too good in a healthy economy, but they are incredibly vulnerable as well. During Covid they got hit hard.
It’s inevitable, the transition must be done at some point, and it better be sooner rather than later.
Sweet Jesus. How is Fear Of Missing Out economic suicide? The only way it’s economic suicide is if you’re way over your head in debt. Why are you way over your head in debt?
Do not invest in lumber.
I don’t think you’re acting in good faith, I don’t understand what I did to you or which karma am I harvesting. Oh well.
“Do not invest in lumber”, what do you know about it, actually?
We’re projecting growth, even with the economy busting because it’s cheaper to build houses with wood than mortar. The cement industry is energy intensive and their margins are falling for decades now, many are getting out of business.
We’re also exploring biomass. Huge surge of demand from Europe.
And no, zero debt. Never had it all my life.
Why liquidate positions? Because when things collapse, they’ll be worth nothing. But it’s a matter of timing, I can’t do anything reckless, many people depend on me.
Look Name I am acting in good faith I just find it distasteful when fascist money managers in a zero sum world come crying about Collapse to OFW of all places. So feel free to ignore the karma comment that comes with the territory, it’s nothing personal.
I live in a logging town. At the back corner of my fence line is a locked Weyerhauser gate that lets on to the biggest private timberland in the world. The Weyerhauser who started the company is on a statue that sits outside of the CIA headquarters in Langley. They have personally paid me a visit because of where I live and what I say online, and they found me to be a person who minds his own business in real life and who isn’t loud enough or political enough to be a problem online. What I do is fair game.
Last year for a time Oregon Douglas Fir dropped below the breakeven point for small producers. Mills were only taking logs from themselves (Weyerhauser) or other majors like Hancock that operate at scale and have deep lines of revolving credit. The lumber industry has breakeven metrics just like the oil industry. What happens to the logging industry during a diesel shock? The breakevens for saw logs goes up. What happens to the construction industry during a diesel shock? What happens to residential and commercial real estate demand? What happens to the lending markets?
Why does it take a nobody like me to tell a big shot like you how things work?
Back to my original point: FOMO in absence of a debt problem cannot cause economic suicide.
“Why liquidate positions? Because when things collapse, they’ll be worth nothing. But it’s a matter of timing, I can’t do anything reckless, many people depend on me.”
So what you’re saying is that if you cash out you don’t think you have enough money for Collapse. Well, welcome to Collapse. Nobody has enough money for Collapse because Collapse ain’t about money anymore. It’s about rising to the occasion.
You can’t carry other people during Collapse. Everybody has to pull their own weight, children and old folks included.
The dollar is the killer investment answer you’re looking for, but the final analysis and decision is yours and no one else’s. There’s a reason that Berkshire Hathaway is in cash and T-bills at as high an all-time record level, at 31%. I assume that that is the highest level Buffet can get away with without causing problems with the shareholders who don’t know jack shit about the coming deflation.
But I recommend for your soul, in these zero sum days, that you fucking take it easy on gaming the system because it comes at somebody else’s expense. Just be happy with what you’ve got and not what you can get over on someone else.
I just reread your first reply to me. How can you possibly be betting on a commodity super cycle from here? Where is the demand for that coming out of an energy supply collapse?
You need to work on rewiring your brain. We’re not straddling two worlds anymore like we have been for the last 15 plus years.
Name, yes that’s little appreciated fact (of distinction), basically upper middle classes or often even the rich in the US live inside ~plywood houses, perhaps only with the cinder blocks in the foundations. That’s how they multiply the floor space per money unit, it’s again about chasing the excess..
Listen, I don’t feel like explaining everything to you, but:
1a. If I hold what I have, and things collapse soon, I lose all of its valuation.
1b. If I hold what I have, and things collapse after 2030, I’ll be making a profit for years.
2a. If I sell what I have, and things collapse soon, I’ll be captalized and will invest it all in my farm.
2b. If I sell what I have, and things collapse after 2030, I’ll spend years with worsened renevue.
As I said, many people depend on me, I cannot fail them.
This is why it is so important to know if this time is the last time or not.
About lumber, we work with Paulownia, which has a gigantic profit margin (9x the return for first harvest, about 10x for the following ones), it is highly sought both in Europe and Asia.
This tree is our gold. It can be made into anything, be it houses, furniture, boats, biomass.
I’m not from the USA, and I export them for Dollars, which is highly valued over my country’s currency.
And yes, there will be a commodity super cycle, it’s a fact, it’s already happening to oil and will cascade to everything else. Things will go up before going down.
The demand comes from life itself, humans need food, water, wood, whatever, and the cheaper (less energy input) the thing is, the higher will be its resilience.
That’s why I’m betting in the lumber, and, as Tim Watkins says a lot, “discretionary spending” will be the first thing to dry up – therefore these high value modern sectors, be them tech or services (such as mine in hotel and leases) should be abandoned.
Thanks Name but that additional detail just confirms my initial response to you which is that, objectively speaking, not knowing what to do is a pathetic condition for a leader to find himself or herself in. You are in freeze mode. Unstick yourself and make a decision. If decisions don’t come easily to you then you are not a natural born leader and you’re just going to have to struggle through it. Asking for advice, which is what you are doing here, is a good idea.
Your options that you laid out didn’t need to be laid out because I already sussed them out because they’re universal. And I gave you my advice. Take it or leave it.
Pawlonia timber. Look at you! That’s pretty neat and cutting edge if you’re into bourgeois boutique upscale global fascism. I almost planted non- timber Pawlonias for savanna livestock vertical pasture but it never came to pass in the end.
What is worse? “Worsened revenue” or losing everything?
If you can’t stand the heat of going against what everyone around you expects you to do then get out of the kitchen. Hand over the decision to someone else, which is what you should do because if you think boutique Pawlonia lumber is heading into a killer growth cycle then you don’t know your ass from a hole in the ground, and you’re gonna find yourself in a worst case scenario.
But you might also consider making what money you can off of thinning your stand out into savanna and fencing it in if the property has surface water on it. That’s a no brainer but all you care about is money because you’re scared of not having it and you’re scared of what people might think of you. And that doesn’t bode well.
You’re welcome for my time. End of discussion on my end.
If I may chip in the location – regional setting is also key part of the decision-making.
Recalling our ~former contributor “FastEddy” he was supposedly single or low dozens digit millionaire grade type of fellow (5-eyes passport) and re-settled in New Zealand, not surprisingly it ended in big disillusion since there often billionaires tend to struggle with the compressed local conditions, politics.
Basically, FE made the initial grave mistake in the early evaluation of options. As 5-eyes guy heritage he could have easily bought for the same amount of NZ money half a mountain range say in Canada or even way back then (15yrs back?) still sneak in and sign the non intrusion papers and stay put inside RU countryside, dealing only with the locals, not mixing in the politics or their big biz.
People sometimes tend to act very wildly against their own interest.
The best kind of person can make a workable situation of any suitable piece of ground anywhere with a decent climate. It’s just about relentlessly bending reality to your will and being willing to repeatedly risk everything in order to get there. Eddy obviously isn’t a man with grit and determination, and he decided to black pill reality as political cover for his deficits, which I told him directly numerous times, though I still like the guy.
That’s interesting set up.
Well, one could argue there will be at least eventually some hyperinflationary flare up with 99.9% probability, albeit likely very short lived, the sequencing and timing of events is the unknown as you mentioned. The lumber companies seem as good vector to park wealth ~temporarily. Is it meant as processing facility only or does it incl. the forest ownership angle itself to some degree as well ?
It’s a very vertical operation.
We own the land, plant the trees, process for construction materials and we also export for energy, primairly to Europe.
The real wealth is in the land and the trees themselves.
Name you keep saying that the real wealth is in the land and the trees yet you are planning on selling it the moment that you can’t adequately profit from it. So it’s just the genteel lip service that makes the world go around. If you really thought that the land and the trees were the real wealth then you wouldn’t be high density commodity monocropping the land of farmed trees. You’d be doing something far more meaningful than that in order to truly bring out its real wealth of resilient abundance. And you wouldn’t be in the fix that you’re currently in.
I hear you but let the communication flow continue, everybody acts differently in slightly varied context of his existence – circumstances. We can learn from each other, perhaps there is something unique about Name’s plans for the near future after-all.
Not trying to stifle conversation JR. On the contrary. I’m performing alchemy in a teachable moment.
I, personally, am very much interested in how the different generations in US are thinking, all of them: Boomers, Gen-Xers, Millennials, senior Zoomers etc.
I am also interested in Karmic works.
Compromise means Iranian Victory.
>some kind of compromise will be held for the oil to continue to flow.
Iran will NOT accept anything other than the cessation of all the aggression against Iran, the guarantee that Khamenei’s son is recognized as the next leader , and no attacks on the current bigwigs of Iran. They were already ruled out by Trump so if a compromise is reached that is the end of Trump’s presidency.
Imbeciles abound in the alt-media. Kunstler for example believes that this war will end when Iran runs out of missiles. Alt-media are really as obfuscating as the MSM, with commentariat generally at the same level.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/victory-iran-will-look-nothing-1945
Bibi Kunstler’s vileness is finally in full bloom for all to see. Karma’s a bitch.
that part too i agree.
I still hope Jimbo was given an offer he (Jimbo) could not refuse… After all those deep, prophetic insight from his 20+ and older “World Made by Hand” etc…
He was given a bloodline he couldn’t refuse. And NYC diamond merchant for a father. That’s the mother of all spiritual battles and he was never up for it from the beginning. He just beguiled people with his talent for words.
I see. I’d stopped lurking there shortly thereafter somebody, who was writing very similarly to you (called “MitchelC” there), was permanently banned by Jimbo (for something, that is still not clear to me). Plus, Jimbo turned into cheap, popular, superficial politics commentary (that I do not understand and have no interest in).
Thanks. I wasn’t around when he wrote world made by hand, and obviously that must qualify him as a bonafide black sheep which is cool, though I never read the book. But I do know that from 2008 when I first encountered his blog, I saw him right away as a Zionist piece of work because I remember the very first time I turned heads at The Automatic Earth was when I ripped into Kunstler during a discussion of his latest article at the time. Everyone was like, whoah what’s up with this new kid?
If USA;/Israel lose this war against Iran, the major cities of the west in 2027 will look like this.
G
https://youtu.be/ssYACBz8gzs?si=p27ifzU7CWk1xkQ0
Courtesy of Woody Wilson, whose disregard of the Brest Litovsk treaty so Poland, Czechoslovakia, etc, countries which have contributed virtually nothing to the world civilization except for some movies nobody watches and the word ‘robot’), led to the rise of the Hordes who are about to consume the world.
There will be no Poland and no Cechia and no travesties as such, but that is no consolidation since if US/Israel lose this the west will sink, mired in internal chaos as the Hordes take over what is salvageable.
I can continue to list all these screwups but at least Trump and Netanyahu are doing something to reverse the trend of appeaing the Hordes.
In retrospect, it would have been better for Hillary Clinton to win in 2017 and go to war against Russia , which lacked the hypersonic missiles till 2019. That would at least stopped the Hordes for half a century, making the tech revolutions allowed to complete.
How does the U.s win the war? Is that with complete control over the oil? It seems like that is the end goal because the U.s is bankrupt and in need of revenue to pay for this. I have read it is 1 billion per day but I am guessing it is much higher than that. In the end they might come to the Carthaginian solution as the the only way forward. God help us..I think Iran is holding back on rockets and the u.s is running out of defensive weapons. They need to turn up the heat I guess
By knocking out Russia;s core areas , possible with the tech of that era, and occupying the oil regions and making sure Russia’s resources are controlled by the West for practically forever, with no margin of error
resource poor areas could just be abandoned
You are basically obsessed by the unimportance of Central Europe.
Maybe it can be an advantage that the environmental conditions of Central Europe have not allowed a catastrophic increase of the populations living in these areas.
Slovakia, Moldova, what remains of “Ukraine”, “Belarus”, Hungary – they are not “Central” Europe, neither culturally, nor ethnically, Django.
Kulm is right – humanity on this Planet would be in way better situtation, without those parasitic malformations.
Your useless, artificial “Slovakia” was funded and created by NaZis in 1938, that’s all one needs to know.
WW2 Slovakia was a state lead by a priest, like Iran was. He was born here in my area of Western Slovakia.
That is an interesting parallel: the world hitting the limits under a religious leader.
https://youtu.be/Nd2IGJqqDxo?si=RGn2d_xTPOXykxOW
One of the private Slovak TVs created a popular series The Danube at your service (Dunaj, k vašim službám) from that era of the Nazi Slovakia that is produced and broadcasted today:
https://youtu.be/p8fftao57mU?si=o0TvY-j86SltN1fg
They had some merits, but in a utilitarian way the resources of these regions could be put into a much better use to be spent in the more advanced regions instead of being wasted to better the lot of the locals who proved to fail to produce a single Nobel Prize in science after independence, all of their laureates , Tribe or not, having been born before their useless countries were created, courtesy of USA.
Poland has reached GDP per capita (PPP) of Spain this year, and it is estimeted to reach UK’s level in 5 years time (IMF data).
As current government of Slovakia pushes hard on the working people with more taxes, so it can pay pensions (i.e. the ruling parties can secure votes of the growing group of the ageing population), do we see cases of hate towards pensioners?
A gruesome discovery in a Bratislava apartment: a married couple lay dead in their living room, covered with a sheet; police detained their son.
https://spravy.pravda.sk/regiony/clanok/789233-desivy-nalez-v-bratislavskom-byte-v-obyvacke-lezali-mrtvi-manzelia-prikryti-plachtou-policajti-zadrzali-ich-syna/?utm_source=pravda&utm_medium=hp-box&utm_campaign=shp_3clanok_box
I think pensions were badly overpromised everywhere in the world. When there were few elderly, and the economy seemed to be growing rapidly, this approach seemed to be possible. But energy and other resource availability no longer supports the level of pensions given.
How many years do you think that pensions can last? We seem to be close to the minsky moment. Or margin call by one of the large firms. I’m not sure what is keeping them in the market for so long. I see a deflation dip followed by hyperinflation as money printing goes on. Hey… by the way where is investor guy???
I expect that, like everything else, it will be gradual disappearance. Some plans will pay out less. Social Security could eventually pay out less, or go to the states because the Federal Government cannot afford it. The disappearance might start soon, with the private credit problems.
Gradual disappearance? That sounds like euphemism…it sounds like planned “de growth or collapse lite! when the wheels start spinning backwards it’s game over for debt obligations. It seems like we will have a controlled society where most people are equally poor
Both of my (Silent generation) grandparents did not live till their 80s and perished from (otherwise curable in the civilized 1st World societies) medical conditions back in 1990s – from lack of proper (not very basic – that was and still is available) medical care. The same is going to happen here, just look at the Canadian “Death Panels” (or whatever they are currently called, in a hearty Orwellian fashion..). As for the proper pensions – grandpa was a decorated WWII veteran with (comparably) good pension (which could not buy very much, but especially proper health care, in the hyperinflationary and generally impoverished 1990s back there).
The end will the controlled society with majority of the (remaining) people being equally poor – the question is, how exactly we (or those who survive the actual civilizational transition) get there 😅
Allow for tangential on the elderly.
Recently, ran into elderly gentleman in the s.market at one of these cookies isle-sections. Notably, he must have been beyond his 85 yrs age threshold, what shocked me was the extreme slow-down of his movements! I was around naturally departing relatives at very high age, but no way comparable at all, this guy was slowed down like through video editing..
He was very thin, likely as in malnutrition-ed, fine wardrobe, living solo.. Interestingly, his shopping cart was very well thought out: bananas, few tomatoes, milk, bagels, and now reaching like in ever so slow-motion acrobat to particular ~none added chem brand of cookies specimen.
It immediately clicked in my mind these sort of “Safari tv docus” about the former leading elephant males who used to navigate others seasonally through out half way of Africa now struck by onset of dementia, not able to navigate anymore to dependable water source or replenishing trees-plants, and thus slowly withering and starving away.
Very sad naturalistic scene, I had to ponder immediately about my own prospects-days of demise eventually..
sorry, likely butchered the plot, as the senior females lead the elephant herds, .. but you get the picture anyway..
As long as US had dollar dominance it could force other countries to eat US debt
A defeat ends that cycle
Repeat post from last year . Why we are at the point of no return .LNG guy ,thanks .
“Essentially the spot price reflecting the overall natgas demand on any given day.
The cost to liquify, ship, and regasify this product once it reaches the UK varies somewhat due to many factors … contract terms, efficiency of ship, delivery route, amongst other items.
Broadly speaking, a liquification fee might run $2.50/$3 per mmbtu, shipping fee $1.50, and 50 cents to regasify.
So, maybe 5 US bucks give or take all in cost. But (and it is a very big ‘but’) the profit for the seller can be much, much higher IF no contracts are in place (contract terms such as HH price plus ‘X’ percentage mark up.)
This is the basic reason why so many European countries occasionally pay nosebleed prices for LNG as they are – in most cases – spot buying from the huge trading companies (Shell, Vitol, Gunvor, et al).
These trading companies – amongst others – committed to long term purchases (10 to 20 years) of finished product from the owners/builders of these fantastically expensive LNG plants, and said contracts were sufficient for the owners/builders to obtain the crucially needed financing.
So, yeah, when the TTF and NBP pricings are about $10-$12/mmbtu (current range) that reflects the sellers’ cost plus anticipated profit.
Very sensitive to supply/demand dynamics.
Iver
12/01/2025
Coffeeguyzz and Dennis
Thank you. Very informative
I was trying to get an idea of how the cost of how natural gas increases from what the producers get. To the various stages.
Finally what a company in the U.K. pays for LNG
Europe is stuck with having to import LNG. It’s own production is falling and to heat a home using electricity is double that of gas. That is with the most efficient heat pumps. Also heat pumps need a total upgrade of your Heating system. A very expensive option.
So we will import lots of lng for a long time.
LNGGuy
12/01/2025
LNG facilities are very expensive to build and maintain/operate. For one example, in 2023, a world scale (5MTPA) dual-string facility I worked with had an annual O&M budget of around $60M. That was a new facility with minimal equipment failures so that just covered salaries and preventative maintenance. They had another $60M for capital equipment costs annually back then (on mostly new equipment). Of course as the facility ages those costs go up and that doesn’t count feed gas or fuel gas costs. And the inevitable flaring of several million dollars of refrigerant on each plant trip. It’s rough to make gas really cold.
LNG is terribly expensive to make and distribute. A price of $10-$12/mmbtu might work in Europe, if the price of US natural gas is between $2 and $3/mmbtu. But if the US price rises, or if the distance is substantially longer, say to So. Korea, then the price has to rise. LNG is burned as the ship travels.
Manufacturers compete on the price of their finished products. High electricity prices can make prices non-competitive for many goods, especially ones that use much electricity, such as aluminum. High prices are also a problem for homeowners and for businesses other than manufacturers.
My long time contention has been that LNG is a ” boutique trade ” . Does not make any sense on economic , technical , complexity or EROEI basis . Just illogical . Another one is the low cost airline business — has never made sense to me , except as Norm says ” if we don’t burn the oil then what do we do with it ” — can’t drink it .
Bernie Sanders: “..cataclysmic impact of robotics/AI on jobs..” already in part behind Q1/25 vs Q1/26 abysmal job report.. (YT BT Cohen)
AI can be used as an excuse for other needs for layoffs, too.
Yes, the general context in the above link-story there will be/are factions favoring massive state intervention against AI/robotics, not only taxes but essentially corralling the big tech monopolies. For now like first step people like Sanders propose is to clip their wings on energy demand and enviro (water for cooling) concerns..
The US has been for many well known reasons always exceptionally beyond immune to ~leftist take-over. However, it could come to fruit eventually with the shifting ethnics mix, econ-poverty debacle, mil-gov non-synchronization, waning msm power, .. Basically, one day the kids or grand-kids of the Bernie Bros. or similar groupings could get all the necessary preconditions just aligned for them. Most likely very few resources to be allocated stateside at that point around, and very likely under dis-union at that point of time..
Iranian scientist living in Slovakia talks about her previous life in Iran
https://spravy.pravda.sk/domace/clanok/789160-iranka-zijuca-na-slovensku-su-indicie-ze-chameneiho-syn-moze-byt-este-tvrdsi-nez-on/
The title is,
Life in Iran? I would still live with my parents, my salary would be just enough to survive, says a scientist from the Slovenian Academy of Sciences
They had to chant anti-American slogans in schools and were instilled from childhood that Israel was their enemy. Iranian scientist Sepideh Hassankhani Dolatabadi (36) says that if she had not emigrated, she would probably still be living with her parents and her salary would only cover her basic living expenses. Why Iranians are not afraid of attacks from the West, and what relations between Iran and Israel looked like in the past, she told Pravda in an interview.
This sounds like a long-term not enough to go around problem in the Middle East. Population rose faster than what resources could support. It was helpful to have another country to blame one’s problems on. Israel seemed to follow somewhat the same pattern.
Low wages are a sign that the economy is not producing very much, relative to population. If it had an abundant supply of cheap fuel, fresh water, and productive agricultural land, the situation might be different.
This refers to Australia’s imports of diesel . Thanks Matt Mushalik .https://crudeoilpeak.info/australias-diesel-import-dependency-on-strait-of-hormuz-is-around-50
Australia’s diesel import dependency on Strait of Hormuz is around 50 %
Australia is far from Hormuz, but its fuel imports come from Asian refineries which get much of their crude oil from the Middle East. . .
The most important fuel for the economy is diesel.
Matt shows a graph from a February post showing monthly diesel imports by country. These imports hit a peak in 2024 and have been declining since. The biggest source of recent diesel imports is So. Korea. Singapore and Malaysia follow in supply.
World’s largest hub for ceramic tiles shuts down .No LNG .
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/fuel-crisis-hits-morbi-tile-hub-as-over-100-ceramic-units-shut-on-propane-shortage/article70711584.ece/amp/
This is in India:
Fuel crisis hits Morbi tile hub as over 100 ceramic units shut on propane shortage
Morbi’s ceramic cluster, which employs over five lakh workers and produces tiles for domestic and export markets, relies heavily on imported propane, with nearly 70% of units dependent on the fuel.
By the way ” five lakh ” is 500,000 . So imagine the crisis .
White House official says the US will seize “all the oil” from Iran.
https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2030142159056187546
ohhh a wh official. and he has a big nose.
I am seeing this as saying we will get the oil from Venezuela (out of the hands of terrorists), so we will no longer have to worry about the Straight of Hormuz.
someone should explain him the difference between 20M and 0.5M. one number is much larger than the other.
Downshifting, severe rationings, restraining trips and migrations (similarly, to how kolkhoz people had no right to leave their kolkhozes at all, while Stalin was alive), while taking best possible care of the cooling down reactors (as reante presciently suggests).
BREAKING: Wall Street Journal reports that America is bracing for an ‘oil shock’ as prices ‘this week skyrocketed at their fastest pace on record’
https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/2030077442715701476
Just jumped into my YouTube feed: A 25-minute lecture by Professor Jiang Xueqin detailing the history of Iran’s improving missile and drone capabilities and how their use on an unprecedented scale in the current conflict this has resulted in the depletion of US and Israeli defensive weapon stocks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjS-Yl58WfU
Tensions in the Middle East have reached a dangerous new level as Iran launches missile and drone strikes targeting strategic Israeli military sites. The attack is part of a broader escalation following joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iranian military and leadership targets, triggering a cycle of retaliation across the region.
In response to earlier attacks on Iranian facilities and leadership compounds, Iran launched waves of ballistic missiles and drones toward Israel and several U.S. military positions in the region, signaling a major expansion of the conflict. ()
In this video, Professor Jiang Xueqin breaks down the strategic significance of these strikes and explains how they fit into the larger geopolitical confrontation between Iran, Israel, and their allies. Using game theory, military strategy, and predictive history, Jiang explores why attacks on strategic military bases can dramatically shift the balance of power in a regional war.
In this analysis you’ll learn:
• Why Iran targeted key Israeli military bases
• The strategic role of missile and drone warfare in modern conflicts
• How the Iran–Israel confrontation could expand into a regional war
• The military and geopolitical consequences of escalating retaliation
• What this conflict means for global stability and energy security
Through careful geopolitical analysis, Professor Jiang explains how a single strike on a strategic base can trigger a wider conflict involving multiple countries across the Middle East
The concern is that if Israel continues to get hammered, they could get desperate and fire a few Nukes into Iran.
This is one possible end game. Iran absorbs a nuke, China and Russia come in and take control of all US bases in the region. By the time they come in the USA will not be able to fight a ground war. I am saying this because Iran announcing that it will not target Gulf states if their territory (their bases) are not used to strike Iran. I still think all hotels should be demolished, so that US soldiers learn the joys of camping, but this step seems to lead into that direction. All missiles now could be used against Israel, precipitating the nuke.
Nice drb
Rodster, no – unfortunately the true concern stems from their stated-hinted gov policy [ in retaliation to everybody ] should they be targeted and prone to fall.
Obviously, they will strike within their ME neighborhood, but also in Europe, and by some other means via subs/containers also US, Asia etc.
Frankly, this war (and the previous round in UKRo escalation) surprised me, I thought we’ve got ~ 1-2x extra decades of limited cat fighting within 2-3rd world realm only, with little or no serious spill over effects.. It’s evident someone somewhere decided ~2020s is the real threshold to start curbing the mass consumerism (as in energy access) by any means possible.
In a way we have been on “borrowed time” for so many decades from say threshold of 1970s – that if it suddenly arrives ~nowish then let’s not be angry in fact we had a good opulent run already indeed, be thankful.
“This brings the oil import curse—originally scheduled to arrive in decades, with the slow depletion of oil fields worldwide—into sharp focus.”
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-war-in-iran-a-giant-leap-towards
Iran is learning how to work around US defense mechanisms to attack an critical air base at Nevatim. Israel didn’t have the ability to defend both Tel Aviv and Nevatim, so it chose to focus on Tel Aviv. The hits on Nevatim are increasing, at the same time Israel’s defenses are depleting.
What we hear in the press is now many incoming missiles have been shot down. But that is not the issue. It is the fact that Iran is getting better and better, and the same time that Israel’s and the West’s stockpile of missiles is depleting.
I would agree that this problem could lead to Israel wanting to use a nuclear weapon against Iran.
https://open.substack.com/pub/ctindale/p/systemic-risk-a-12-order-cascading?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
This is a good write up on the complicated situation we are in
Not sure if anyone has posted this
Yes, this was posted earlier, actually twice. But I don’t think anyone has commented on it. Its title is,
Systemic Risk: A 12-Order Cascading Analysis of a Zero-Flow Strait of Hormuz Closure
I don’t think a zero flow situation is really likely. It is more that Iran will not let through the ships it doesn’t like. So we are encountering more of a one-way flow. But even this reduced flow is an issue. It points out issues in
Polyester -> apparel
Natural gas -> fertilizer -> food
Sour crude / sulfur -> sulfuric acid -> copper
Propylene -> polypropylene -> medical and packaging
Salt + power -> chlorine / caustic soda -> water treatment
Natural rubber + synthetic rubber -> tires -> freight
Iron ore + metallurgical coal -> steel -> construction and machinery
Bauxite + alumina + cheap power -> aluminum -> transport and packaging
Soda ash + natural gas -> glass -> buildings, autos, solar
High-purity gases and chemicals -> semiconductors -> electronics and autos
The author comes up with timeframes when different industries will be hit. For example:
Order 6: Compute & Data Centers (6–18 Months)
Order 7: Capital Markets & Credit (1–6 Months)
Order 12: Civilizational Redesign (5+ Years)
https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for
If this is for real we are a dead man walking
A combat-unit commander told non-commissioned officers at a briefing Monday that the Iran war is part of God’s plan and that Pres. Donald Trump was “anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth,” according to a complaint by a non-commissioned officer.
From Saturday morning through Monday night, more than 110 similar complaints about commanders in every branch of the military had been logged by the Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF).
The complaints came from more than 40 different units spread across at least 30 military installations, the MRFF told me Monday night.
How do you feel when you read something like this, Gail, from a family with a serious Christian background? Do you feel more like laughing or crying? Or are you banging your head against the wall?
That’s from a couple days ago. It happened. But it’s part of the Sesame Street psyop. Mass formation 2.0.
Rest easy, coup coming.
EIA has posted a figure for world crude oil production for last November (86.281 Mb/d) — this is 0.1% lower than their highest figure (86.398 Mb/d, for last September).
“does shale-oil fracking require more drilling than conventional oil drilling” yielded:
“Yes, shale oil fracking requires significantly more drilling, effort, and infrastructure than conventional oil drilling. Shale wells often require complex horizontal drilling extending thousands of feet, high-volume hydraulic fracturing (fracking) with massive water, sand, and chemical inputs, and rapid, repeated drilling to maintain production due to steep, fast decline rates.
“Here are the key reasons why fracking requires more intensive drilling:
“Horizontal & Vertical Complexity: While conventional wells are often vertical, shale wells require drilling down and then turning 90 degrees to run horizontally through the target rock layer, requiring more time, technology, and materials.
“Higher Density of Wells: Because shale wells are less productive over their lifetime and deplete faster, developers must drill many more wells to keep production consistent, compared to a single conventional well that can last for years.
“Intensive Stimulation: Shale requires “high-volume hydraulic fracturing” (often >100,000 gallons of fluid) to crack the rock, whereas conventional wells may not require fracturing at all or require much less.
“Logistical Scale: Unconventional (shale) drilling involves significantly greater water use, more waste generation, and more surface equipment to manage the fracturing process.
“In contrast, conventional oil drilling taps into reservoirs where oil flows easily, requiring a simpler, less-intensive process.”
Diesel-electric rigs are often used for shale-oil-fracking drilling — isn’t “middle distillates” oil central to all of this? https://davecoop.net/seneca https://oil-price.net/
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1761955200000
Thanks! I am sure that there is at least some middle distillates used in oil drilling. It is also my understanding that quite a bit of the drilling pipes come from China because all US only can make recycled steel, out of melted down autos and the like. US’s recycled steel is not of high enough quality for a lot of purposes.
All of the automatic investment in stock funds for 401k plans keeps pumping the prices of stocks up, especially when the allocation formula gives the highest weight to the highest market value, whether or not that stock is way over-priced.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-if-automatic-stock-buying-juststops
For years I have argued that the market is being structurally bid higher by passive investment flows. Retirement plans, target date funds, ETFs, and automated investment programs buy stocks consistently month after month. These programs operate on autopilot. The result is a forced buyer in the market.
When contributions arrive, the funds buy the underlying securities, typically weighted by market capitalization. That means the largest companies receive the most buying pressure. This helps explain why a small group of mega cap stocks has dominated market performance. The so called Magnificent Seven, Tesla, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Netflix, and Google, have dramatically outperformed the broader market in recent years because of the passive bid, in my opinion.
At the same time, market breadth has often been remarkably weak. The number of advancing stocks has frequently lagged even as major indexes push to all time highs.
In other words, indexes have been rising while much of the market has moved sideways or lower. That is what happens when capital flows are allocated by size instead of value. It’s also why if I needed to start buying the S&P regularly to invest, today I’d prefer something like the equal weighted Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) as opposed to a weighted ETF like State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). . .
Most retirement contributions come directly from paychecks. That means the passive bid is ultimately tied to employment. If fewer people are working, fewer contributions go into retirement plans. And if people start pulling money out, whether due to unemployment, financial stress, or emergencies, those funds must eventually sell assets to meet withdrawals.
That is where things get interesting.
“those funds must eventually sell assets to meet withdrawals” – this is what seems to be ahead now
HT on jet fuel situation:
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/component/content/article/jet-fuel-price-up-140-since-last-month-strait-of-hormuz-closure
Wow! Air fares will go up quickly, if that remains the case.
This was bound to happen . I have written about this earlier . Reason a barrel of 42 gallons of crude only gives 3-4 gallons of ATF ( Airline Turbine Fuel ) . A Boeing 737 consumes 850 gallons per hour = 225 barrels of crude production . The Military will get preference in allocation of this low produced resource .Civilian air travel gets shoved out . Gotta drop those bombs and kill civilians first .😭
Sorry , Forgot the link .
https://www.google.com/search?q=fuel+consumption+of+a+boeing+737&rlz=1CAXSDZ_enBE1181BE1181&oq=Fuel+consumption+of+a+B&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBwgFEAAYgAQyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQABiABDIHCAIQABiABDIHCAMQABiABDIHCAQQABiABDIHCAUQABiABDIICAYQABgWGB4yCAgHEAAYFhgeMggICBAAGBYYHjIICAkQABgWGB7SAQkxNTIzMWowajeoAgCwAgA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Speaking of “Boeings” – perhaps the only instance when HRC got off the script – calm elaborate lawyerly facade and started openly yelling during the recent hearings – was at the very moment WTC / .. came into view.. NOT during the ongoing list of her husband’s escapades.. ; 6months of intensive prior training for the hearings by squad of lawyers, coached-versed evidently in every nuance and material detail that could / will be brought up there..
Hm, because that’s the very area of inquiry (still theoretically) risking higher treason ? And or similarly does she simply signal a warning, ala “..well I’m the 9/11 inner club don’t ever touch me.. you lowly congressperson.. ”
YT “MUST WATCH: Hillary Clinton, Nancy Mace Trade Barbs Over Clinton’s Relationship With Howard Lutnick”
PS tried to avoid the hearings – watched this accidentally just today
Can anyone access this one (archive sites not helping me right now.)
> Qatar warns war will force Gulf to stop energy exports ‘within days’
https://www.ft.com/content/be122b17-e667-478d-be19-89d605e978ea
https://archive.ph/iu357
As 75% of the Middle East oil goes to 4 billion Asians, the catastrophe will not primarily be Europe or the US.
Besides the human collaterals we will be facing we have to question the financial system, though.
Asian economies would be hit first by a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the resulting global “price shock” would trigger a worldwide recession.
European economies are liable to be outbid by Asian economies for what oil and gas remains available due to current finances.
The AI explains it in more detail:
Global Price Contagion: Oil is a globally traded commodity. Even if a country (like the US) doesn’t import from the Gulf, a closure would cause global prices to “gap violently upward,” potentially reaching $130–$300 per barrel.
European Gas Crisis: Europe is particularly sensitive to the disruption of Qatari LNG, which accounts for 20% of global supply. A total closure could see European gas prices triple.
Supply Chain Shattering: Because Asia (especially China) is the world’s manufacturing hub, higher energy costs there would immediately increase the price of electronics, fertilisers, and consumer goods globally.
Monetary Tightening: To combat the resulting “stagflation,” central banks worldwide would likely keep interest rates high, further slowing global economic growth.
Regional Buffers & Exceptions
China’s Flexibility: Unlike its neighbours, China has significant strategic petroleum reserves and alternative overland pipelines from Russia and Central Asia, providing a short-term cushion.
Net Exporters: Within Asia, Malaysia would be a relative beneficiary as an energy exporter, though it would still face broader trade disruptions.
This is a way-out view of where this conflict could end up. In this view, the very high population countries get the most severe cutbacks from oil.
https://x.com/Gccooke/status/2029587778871443881
Trump is running the most dangerous geopolitical blitz since Bretton Woods.
And the endgame isn’t a trade war.
There’s a theory circulating that Trump is running a far more ambitious play — one designed to collapse BRICS, force China’s hand, and lock in dollar dominance for decades.
It’s bold. It’s speculative. And whether you buy it or not, the underlying moves are worth paying attention to:
𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟭: 𝗩𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘇𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗮
𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟮: 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮
𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟯: 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻
S𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟰: 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮
Here’s where the theory gets really interesting — and really controversial.
The argument is that a back-channel deal is already taking shape. Russia, increasingly squeezed and looking for off-ramps, begins redirecting energy exports toward Western markets. . .
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗻𝗱𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲
BRICS loses its economic foundation. Beijing, cut off from reliable energy and geopolitical allies, is forced to negotiate on American terms, including purchasing U.S. debt at favorable rates. The dollar gets a controlled reset with gold as the backstop, and the global financial system re-centers around Washington.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 + 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗟𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿
. . .
i said it last week
if donnie closes hormuz long term—oil prices for his buddies skyrocket
But high prices might keep production flowing.
again
no
cheap oil flow requires millions of little people buying oil in small quantirties
expensive oil for a few rich people sounds good in theory—until you stop to figure it out..
we use millions of different oil based products—we all use little bits of them as needed—a tv set—a tarmac road—fertiliser—medication, you name it
—an oil refinery is a complex piece of kit….you cant have an oil refinery run as a backyard operation to produce all the different types of oils we need—just doesnt work.
we produce the above in vast quantities—at relatively low cost.
what you cannot do is produce —say—expensive tarmac to make a cheap road, or run the roadmaking machinery on expensive fuel…
the whole thing tips out of cost balance….you cant create. an expensive road just to accommodate rich peoples cars…..and you cant make cars in low quantity anyway, because they would be totally unaffordable..
and…
in any event expensive supercars are produced on the back of development of ordinary cars for everyone else.
Norman, you are thinking in black and white, employing dichotomized concepts here. What did Professor Richard “Selfish Gene” Dawkins say about that?
Ah, let me see. Yes. Here it is:
Dawkins used the phrase “the discontinuous mind” (and related ideas) to criticize the human tendency to impose sharp, categorical breaks on continuous natural and other phenomena. By “the discontinuous mind”, Dawkins was referring tothe habit of thinking in neat boxes (distinct kinds) instead of appreciating continuous variation and gradual change.
This is precisely what you have done in creating a dichotomy between the adjectives “cheap” and “expensive”. In the real world, including the physical world and the conceptual, social, or mental worlds we also live in, when describing things using adjectives, there are usually gradations or shades of intensity. This is why we also use adverbs such as slightly, considerably, fairly, greatly, very, comparatively, incredibly, or surprisingly.
It is simplistic or disingenuous to label a commodity like oil or a product such as a car “cheap” or “expensive” period. In order to say anything meaningful, such value judgements require a context.
When you are down at the supermarket and find the butter or the sugar or the PG Tips tea bags selling at half price, you can say to your spouse”That’s cheap!” and get away with it because the context will be clear to both of you that the item in question is on sale at a comparatively cheap price.
But when talking economics academically in a serious forum (may I call OFW a serious forum; yes, I think I may),if you want to be taken seriously you don’t label a car simply “expensive.” You may say “it costs $35,000 (20% above class median), but its fuel efficiency and 10‑year warranty reduce total cost of ownership to below the class median. For a buyer planning long-term use, it’s cost‑effective; for someone needing a cheap short‑term runabout, it’s overpriced.”
It’s the same thing with oil, although it is the master resource, the price and availability of which affects lots of other things in the economy, it can be priced along a broad spectrum of relative affordability that will produce a different set of economic effects. It is never merely “cheap” or “expensive”.
When Gail said “But high prices might keep production flowing,” the context was clear to most of us.
I, with my subtle, sophisticated, continuous mind—a well-lubricated high-precision instrument— interpreted her comment as meaning: “But relatively higher prices might keep production flowing with less interruption for longer.”
Whereas you, with your crude, one-dimensional, rusty old discontinuous mind, assumed that she was implying: “But absolutely high prices might keep production flowing absolutely,” which she most definitely was not.
I agree with Norm. So has Gail consistently agreed with Norm in the past, which is why one of her recent articles was titled, “Why Oil Prices Don’t Rise To Consistently High Levels.” High prices destroy demand, causing a drop in production. High prices reduce the Energy Returned on Investment (EROI), and in a post-growth world of structurally declining affordability, that’s catastrophic. A big part of holding the world together since the Ukraine war started has been the backdoor energy bailouts with discount oil due to sanctions and price caps. High prices due to the Iran war reverses that bailout regime bigly in the opposite direction. Look how shortlived and catastrophic was the short oil price spike before the Global Financial Crisis.
This war is not a feathering mechanism to boost production as a result of low barrel prices threatening shut-ins. The barrel price is already higher than the sweet spot the would choose to feather up to using any other contrived geopolitical mechanism that a Hormuz closure. Anything but Hormuz. Hormuz is not a feathering mechanism, it’s a sledgehammer. My gas station price is up 90 cents in three days. What’s it gonna be in a few weeks?
This is the end of the road. A few months from now oil production will be lucky to be 70pc of what it is now. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it’s less than fifty. Not that we’ll have that kind of information coming in. Crazy talk I know. Good thing I didn’t say that over at Moonofalabama on top of my coup talk.
What I should have said first is that the higher prices in this case are the result of oil shortages themselves, which preempts the whole “keep the oil flowing with less interruption for longer.”
You don’t need to refute every word Norm says; he’s made himself clear enough.
reante> the nicely evolving energy clusterf@ck will present itself through many paradoxes..
For example, if the fuel situation deteriorates further, diesel becomes unobtanium (for peons), hence they will sell / discard their even youngish vehicles <5yrs old for pennies in mad dash to hop on the gasoline / natgas option instead.
Now, it takes several months "on the evenings" for diy-er to convert it to EV. But here is the clincher, by that time the supplies and int. trade (even second hand trade) won't be there saturated enough to make it possible..
So, people get stuck.
Perhaps in some regional setting, sectors of public could commute by local rail + last mile on bicycles. But again this could be completely nixed by the simple fact of suddenly overcrowded rail in itself, so no bikes on board allowed anymore etc.
Jr, yeah, bicycles and four-stroke small bore mini-motorcycles and scooters are a good idea, hence my used Honda Monkey purchase six months ago after selling my two one-ton flatbed trucks, and about the same time as I threw out, here, a 4 gallon a week per driver’s license gasoline rationing regime as my best guess. It gets the best mpg of all motorcycles and scooters capable of going off-road. Scooters under 50cc also don’t require a motorcycle license, just a helmet, and they’re safe because they’re slow, and fully they’re street legal in the US. The Honda ruckus and the Yamaha Zuma 50 are the two best options because they’re rugged with light off-road capabilities.
Yes good choice, especially that Ruckus frame.
If I’m not mistaken sold only as two stroke, both Zuma and Ruckus discont./banned for emissions over the last decade.
Lot of options now in terms of rugged frame AWD e-scooters and e-bikes though. Obviously, the pricing is brutal, although CHN had to offer -xy% sale.. The reliability is questioned.
Perhaps one could also fix up older BCS (powered implements platform) as sort of sulky / towed trailer transportation (slow) for the same or lower budget for not long range application though. These should be <15-10hp.. in this power envelope the e-kit new or used one is not such burden yet, mass produced, ..
That’s weird, the ruckus and zuma (since 2008 I think) are four-stroke over here.
Yeah the electric bikes are also an option I just have no interest in them. I’ll just go back to my bicycles when the gas runs out.
Well, not fun under the openly totalitarian “eco” dictatorship. For example the EU completely gutted the Suzuki car brand, they always used to offer (their core specialty) over decades several awd/4×4 models in very small compact platform for say 17grand..
That includes the new gen of now stretched 5dr Jimny offroader in India it’s priced 3x less! than shadow imports into Italy etc.
Plus forced silly automatic tranny option only – madness hah.
No, there is no production if bombs are falling on the oil infrastructure and production is shutdown a la Ras Tanura , Basra , Kuwait , Qatar . Nothing to pump . This loss is irreplaceable from other sources like Canada , VZ , Russia etc . All pipe dreams . Geology prevails . No production = no flow . Hasta La Vista .
This is the most convincing point. If they destroy the Middle East production facilities it will take years to re-build them. In the meantime world economy is crumbling.
It is either a staged war or a short move or an excuse to spread death and terror for a long time.
Because for the Iranians to increase the costs for the US it is easiest to destroy the Middle East facilities. The economic shockwave would hit back the US.
This risk must have been part of any sensible consideration. You think the Chinese would prevent this? Russia cannot jump in, they dont have this production.
ah—but you ignore the ”fact” that it is all part of god’s plan.
either the christian god, or the muslim god, makes little difference…
christian oil has no right to be under muslim land anyway..
bring the whole lot crashing down, then jesus will return, refill the oilwells put everything right, and we can carry on as we always used to
The oil will simply not be there. You mean high prices help non-Middle East production? But they produce 30%. Can higher prices ramp up non-Middle East production by 40%?
It will be difficult to drive a wedge between China and Russia.
The Power of Siberia pipeline will become an umbellical cord for natural gas.
And Russia will supply China with LNG from the new Arctic LNG2 terminal via the Northern Sea Route.
Maybe NATO will be asked to disrupt the Northern Sea Route…. as it moves into Greenland and the arctic.
This seems like wishful thinking from Trump land…. Destabilizing everything and hoping it doesn’t bite you in the ass..it is not going to be good for the u. S of a . They are spending over a billion dollars a day on this adventure and that doesn’t take into account all the other costs. China is not that weak and this war is not over
Yes, because Iran and China are 100% independent actors. who writes this crap? China has stockpiled oil for about a year, and is going to get most of Russian production. Russia is about to boom, given projected oil prices. Much more likely that we see some western colonies crumble and start the long trek away from the hegemon. plus a significant footprint reduction of the usa presence in eurasia.
Ann posted this article recently, but some folks may have missed it. It goes through all the indirect links if the Straight of Hormuz is closed completely.
https://ctindale.substack.com/p/systemic-risk-a-12-order-cascading
Systemic Risk: A 12-Order Cascading Analysis of a Zero-Flow Strait of Hormuz Closure
Housing crisis is deepening
“The affordability crisis is taking on new forms. Instead of entire apartments, individual rooms are being sold, and banks are dusting off increasingly creative lending strategies.
The gap between average salaries and real estate prices has widened so much over the past decade that traditional mortgages are no longer fulfilling their function, and young people are feeling pressure that has not been seen since the end of the financial crisis.
However, in the face of this housing paralysis, bizarre and sometimes desperate alternatives are beginning to emerge. The European real estate market is being flooded with schemes that would have been considered science fiction just a few years ago.
From selling individual bedrooms in shared apartments with strangers to mortgages for groups of friends, the line between bold innovation and sheer helplessness is becoming dangerously blurred.”
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
https://www.trend.sk/ekonomika/bytovy-sen-ruca-mladi-europania-siahaju-zufalych-rieseniach?itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_modul=trend_topbox&itm_position=2
Pressburg is returning back to its proper status as a suburb of Wien, so its price should resemble that of Wien as well.
I don’t know about the rest of Slovakia, but isn’t Pressburg the only city of note there?
Suburb of Vienna? How? There are much larger numbers of people and buildings cover huge areas in comparison to hundred years ago. Dont you understand that you cant go back in time???
Austria with its intermittent renewables is an energy poor country compared to its neighbours, like Slovakia, Czech Replubic or Switzerland, that have nuclear power.
There is no way back.
There are no Austrians anymore, just immigrants and a bloated city of Vienna, where energy prices for households are among the highest.
Moreover, there are various bigger towns with several tens of thousands of inhabitants in Slovakia now.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cost-of-utilities-around-the-world/
You still do not understand depletion and population change. That Vienna is full of immigrants from abroad, but Bratislava is mostly full of people from the Eastern part of Slovakia that is depopulating.
It is an implosion into existing urban centers, not into previous states. Austria-Hungary is completely dead. The languages have evolved into complex structures, which further alienated Hungary, Slovakia and Austria.
It is English now which thanks to its flexibility rules the world.
Do you have a brain?
Bratislava is a great city, nice, well educated people!
Vienna has much more international money invested into the historical parts of the city, but indeed the problems with migrants and raising housing prices are unsolved.
The Austrian dont have the personell anymore to succesfully administrate other countries. The do management like the Leyen-Commission. Increasing bureaucracy and solving not one problem.
For Slovaks, an attractive city is Prague, thanks to language proximity of Czech language to Slovak language, not Vienna, with its immigrants, speaking languages that are even further from German language than Slovak language from German language. Not mentioning the lower security in Vienna than in Prague.
An excellent analysis by Anas Alhaji on Iran . Must see . We are already beyond the point of no return .
I agree that we are past the point. this is why I do not understand China’s passivity.
It seems to be those who study the Book of Esther in the Bible–Conservative Christians and Jewish people–who are most behind the attack on Iran. At the same time, this is part of the reason the people in Iran are so incensed.
https://www.jta.org/2026/03/02/religion/death-of-iranian-leader-just-before-purim-revives-book-of-esther-parallels
Death of Iranian leader just before Purim revives Book of Esther parallels
The timing of Israel’s strike, days before the holiday, prompted religious and political figures to invoke themes from the biblical story set in ancient Persia.
In Jewish time, history often has a way of rhyming with the calendar. So when Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli air strike on the Shabbat before Purim — the holiday that commemorates the downfall of Haman, a Persian tyrant who sought to annihilate the Jews — it was perhaps inevitable that rabbis, politicians and social media commentators would reach for the Book of Esther.
Some did so reverently, others triumphantly, and a few with a wink. But as Jews prepared to don costumes and drown out Haman’s name with noisemakers, the ancient story of survival in Persia collided with a very modern war in what is now known as Iran.
The Orthodox Union, the Modern Orthodox umbrella group, put out a statement titled “Purim in Our Time: Standing Up to Iranian Tyranny.” “We will read the Bible story of Esther and Mordecai overcoming the genocidal plans of Haman, who sought to destroy the Jewish people. Today, in coordination with Prime Minister Netanyahu and the IDF, President Trump and the U.S. armed forces took defensive action to silence a modern threat from the same ancestral land of Haman,” the statement read.
Such comparisons have proliferated since the killing of Khamenei.
I saw an editorial today in the WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/purim-was-right-on-the-nose-this-year-5b6ba73f
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/purim-was-right-on-the-nose-this-year-5b6ba73f
I don’t know about Biblical/Talmudic (i.e. genetically Semitic) “Hebrews”, but modern Ashkenazi converts, celebrating that joyful spring festivity of “Purim” are utterly crazy and are all “Kapos” – dancing on the graves of their own mercilessly massacred Indo-Iranian ancestors. What a horror simulation, in general! 😱😨✡
yes. the war in Iraq was also started on Purim, as as one of the Lebanon wars. These guys can’t hang fast enough.
https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/indiatoday/images/story/202603/pastors-praying-for-trump-at-white-house-061916257-16x9_0.png
Gosh, look at the President. I bet he’s got more disciples than Jesus. How long will it take before our Norm is also converted to the power of the new Messiah? 😉
Surely this pic must have alienated another 1M americans from their church, no?
check back
ive been banging on for years about godbotherers, rapturemongers and jesusfreaks
these nutters are not christians or muslims
never once have i denigrated the christian or muslim religion
I don’t disagree with you, and I add some of them are downright dangerous.
and that picture i think was from 16/20, with Paula White— even jesusfreaks think shes a nutter—along with copeland and a few others
I think this is an old picture
yes—now he got a second term he doesnt need the godnuts anymore
https://internationalman.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/word-image-70521-1.png
LOL!
“Not enough to go around” seems to lead to many hope-for solutions.
written by me, in 2012/13, Page 81, from my book The End of More
///Energy depletion is going to cause global economies to nosedive, and there will be a desperate grab for any lifeline of salvation, no matter how extreme.
The pattern is being set.
It may be only a matter of time before conditions worsen to the point where a theocratic dictatorship is all that’s on offer, and the American people might just grab at it in desperation. The basic structure of such political madness is already in place. Given the right circumstances it will establish itself by popular vote. When it does so it will not easily be got rid of.////
(just in case anyone feels its still a joke here)
https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-More-resources-humankind-unsustainable-ebook/dp/B00D0ADPFY
Can anyone access this page?
> Why oil at $200 a barrel is no longer unthinkable Financial Times 10 hours ago
https://www.ft.com/content/8d8c337f-e3a7-4fa5-8e9f-749a24fe3eb9
https://archive.ph/WaejX
Explanation of why prices could spike, under photo at top:
“Demand for oil is inelastic, meaning it’s hard to get people to stop using it, even when it costs them more.”
Imagine the worst case, where the strait remains closed for an extended period. That would lop off 20mn barrels a day of crude and refined products from global supply. Even then, some could be rerouted via pipelines in the region. The world was already expected to produce more barrels than it would consume this year, and another few could be squeezed out of other producers — including US shale oil and new hotspots such as Guyana. A net loss of 12mn b/d would be more than oil demand fell during the pandemic.
then in the next paragraph it says the strait will not be closed long because the US navy will escort every ship. this is the financial times. It’s all fun and games when the orange idiot says such a thing, but the FT is full of important serious people.
Important, serious people cannot admit that we have a problem.
the FT is the one paper to take notice of
It seems to me that they lost their status now.
This explanation is better posted by me earlier .https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/03/02/a-new-explanation-for-tariffs-and-bombings/comment-page-2/#comment-501469
I’m calling it: there will be ENERGY LOCKDOWNS across Europe starting in approx 2-3 months time. Governments, to allow the US use of their military assets, will order their citizens to STAY AT HOME or use only walking & bicycles for travel to “SAVE OIL TO WIN THE WAR.”
https://x.com/robinmonotti/status/2029827313471295678
I think Trump tacos… he seems to do it every time. He is scared little boy inside that body. That is why he acts the way he does. It will end next week. But problems will prevail. Hopefully wells don’t get shut in.
I’m scared too. The UK Ministry of War has just sent me my food rations for the week, but they’re well past the sell-by-date. 🙁
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/HK_Shau_Kei_Wan_%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E6%B5%B7%E9%98%B2%E5%8D%9A%E7%89%A9%E9%A4%A8_Museum_of_Coastal_Defence_HKMCD_British_foods_1940s_Rowntree%27s_Kit_Kat_Chocolate.JPG
From yesterdays hearing, now it has been revealed that US stopped (and or cannibalized) weapons shipments to UKRo war theater in the middle of 2025 already..
So, there are two major explanations, either the Iran attack was already in planning or there has been some deliberate policy curbing effort in that ongoing war (perhaps incl. US-RU negotiations).
Here some snippets, as Congress people pretending to be shocked about it..
Interesting! Can’t send as many weapons to Ukraine, if they are needed elsewhere.
save gasoline to win a war that uses diesel. didn’t we do this already in 2020?
“The entire system of global maritime trade, carrying billions of dollars of cargo across the oceans every day, stands on a foundation that can be dissolved by a small number of private decisions taken in a handful of London boardrooms.
This is not a flaw to be patched. It is a structural feature of how globalization actually works, as distinct from how we imagine it works. The mental model most investors carry is that global trade operates on the back of military alliances, freedom-of-navigation operations, and the implied threat of great-power intervention. That model is a generation out of date. The actual operating system of global trade is institutional trust, intermediated by insurance, governed by commercial incentives, and constrained by regulatory capital requirements designed for an era of quantifiable natural catastrophe risk rather than unmodellable geopolitical uncertainty.“?
https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-invisible-siege-how-insurance?r=6p7b5o&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true&_src_ref=t.co
The Invisible Siege: How Insurance Markets, Not Missiles, Closed the Strait of Hormuz
And Why the Disruption Will Last Four to Sixteen Months Longer Than Any Model on Wall Street Currently Prices
. . . a military blockade ends when the military operation ends. An actuarial blockade ends when the insurance market decides it has ended. Those are two fundamentally different timelines operating on fundamentally different logics. The market is pricing the first. The alpha is in the second.
This is a good point:
The global maritime insurance system is not a market in any conventional competitive sense. It is a concentrated oligopoly layered three deep. At the surface sit twelve P&I clubs organized through the International Group, a London-based association that pools claims above individual club retention levels. These twelve clubs provide the third-party liability cover without which no commercial vessel can operate. Beneath them sit perhaps five to ten active treaty reinsurers, predominantly London-based, who absorb the catastrophic tail risk that individual clubs cannot carry. And beneath those reinsurers sits the retrocession market, where reinsurers lay off their own excess exposure.
Here is the structural vulnerability that no energy analyst models, because no energy analyst is trained to see it: the retrocession market and the entire insurance-linked securities sector, totaling roughly forty-one billion dollars, systematically exclude war risk.
I know that this description is true. It is not an issue we think about much.
Another interesting point:
What has happened in the Strait of Hormuz is the precise maritime instantiation of a mechanism that operated with identical structural logic during the 2008 financial crisis. In September 2008, the interbank lending market did not freeze because banks were insolvent. It froze because the cost of verifying counterparty solvency exceeded the expected return of the overnight lending transaction. Banks that were perfectly solvent could not borrow, because no lender could afford to determine which banks were solvent and which were not. The verification cost inverted the transaction economics, and the market seized.
Another good point:
The structural implication is stark: the Hormuz actuarial blockade will persist not for the duration of Operation Epic Fury’s kinetic campaign, but for the duration of the insurance market’s reinstatement process. Those are two fundamentally different timelines. The kinetic campaign may last four to eight weeks, as the administration projects. The insurance reinstatement, based on the only available reference classes, will require six to eighteen months under even a favorable scenario. The gap between those two timelines is where the alpha lives.
Also:
Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter and a pillar of European and Asian gas supply, has no pipeline alternative to Hormuz whatsoever. . .
Saudi Arabia may have to sell Treasuries, if its cash flow becomes more negative. This will tend to raise interest rates. (In fact, they seem to be rising already.) The article says:
The energy market and the Treasury market, treated as separate worlds by every sell-side desk, are connected through the balance sheets of six sovereign states.
Fertilizer production and export will be badly hit during planting season, according to a fairly long paragraph. No strategic fertilizer reserve exists, either.
The European gas fracture meets depleted storage. Without gas from Qatar it is Europe will have trouble refilling storage.
Also, inflation risk with higher oil prices, leading to higher interest rate needs.
So, then, what everyone would do well to realize — instead of bargaining with the situation — is that we’ve crossed the Rubicon into Phase 2 of the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda, and global fascism cannot and will not survive this Big Nuclear Scare. National socialism doesn’t need insurance and reinsurance. It just needs to get on with it.
A crisis in energy markets is likely. Alexander discusses the possible stoppage of a lot of gas and oil production in the Middle East from about 26 mins in. He estimates that the closure of the Strait is the most pressing issue right now.
Evidently it will take some time to get production back online if it goes off for any length of time because it cannot be exported through the Strait and the storage fills up. (Btw. Russia is talking about finally cutting off all gas to Europe.)
Thanks. I noticed too that later Alexander says that he thinks it likely will be difficult to get Trump’s proposed insurance of ships traveling through Hormuz through Congress. And sending warships through Hormuz puts them at risk of getting sunk by Iraq’s drones or missiles. Our defenses against them are not very good.
It can also explode to where several euro countries, azerbajian, turkey, and gulf states all join in. china should be acting more decisively IMHO.
Only Turkey could cause any real imposition to Iran and that would be costlier than Erdogan’s head. He won’t play openly(at least not yet).
Iran doesn’t want China involved and the Chinese take their time.
They appear to be almost there, but Iran is very diplomatic with their refusals and I’m sure, enjoying sending them little reminders of their own history. Getting them up to the boil nicely, whilst continuously egging on the retards(follow their statements if you aren’t yet).
https://cloudwoods1.substack.com/p/america-the-robber-has-ambitions
Brilliantly done.
As someone wrote, Iran is the buckle of Belt & Road and the wests aim is to bring destruction and uncertainty, to disable the calm of free trade(hilarious really, apart from the usual deliberate mass murder of children).
Remember 3-5 days.
24 hours later 3-5 weeks.
Another 24 hours 8-10 weeks.
Yet another 24 hours 100 days(days because the average westerner struggles to figure out how many weeks that is).
I haven’t looked since day 4, so 8,760 hours sounds a safe bet.
Hats off to Mary for the show.
Oh, I hear General Armageddon is back. Would be wonderful to take a lesson from Iran’s response. I smell Odesa and dead Nazis.
It would be good to have a little friendly bet as to how long this will last. I tend to agree on the one year timeline, based on the fact that defense missiles will be exhausted soon, but probably F35 or Tomahawk will stick around a while.
The problem is the long term damage done to oilfields that will have to be closed once storage fills up. will the saudi lose ghawar, which has been pressured with saltwater since (gulp) 1958?
I personally don’t think it will last so long. That timeframe would surely force other actors to take more decisive steps. If I’m wrong, I’ll buy a bag of the most expensive coffee I can find available. Punish yourself whichever ever way works for you, although I’m now looking forward to losing.
“will the saudi lose ghawar, which has been pressured with saltwater since (gulp) 1958?”
Doesn’t sound like it would come back. One for reante😉
Going back to Azerbaijan, they were warned after the June mishap. Right at the end, a missile flew into a building there and no one wanted to talk about it, but stupid is what stupid does and so they’ve been chucking accusations around on demand. Unfortunately rather than pummeling them, Iran bothered to spend the 30 seconds it took to show it was another obvious ff(by looking at the Azerbaijanis own recording. How stupid are these people?).
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/03/06/3533159/media-slip-up-exposes-azerbaijan-republic-s-false-flag-against-iran
They’ve now had their warning and if they want to come out the other side with any kind of military left, they’ll stfu, which in turn, reduces the radius of potential attack for Iran(a radius that has been diminishing daily) and allows them to zoom in on the real goal.
Iran are clearly not worried with the situation. Even Yemen haven’t bothered entering the play(yet), but their people are chomping at the bit and they have their own history in this game
https://english.masirahtv.net/post/54309/-With-Iran-and-Lebanon-Million-Strong-Rally-in-Sana-a-Declares-Yemen-s-Readiness
https://english.masirahtv.net/post/54298/Leader-Reaffirms-Support-for-Iran-Our-Hands-Are-on-the-Trigger-if-Developments-Demand-
Sirens going off in 174 squatter settlements as I write. Winning 😂
If ghawar went offline for good then that would put the whole Non-Public Degrowth Agenda (DA) in question to say the least, since the whole thesis is that the Hidden Hand is chasing Collapse MPP come hell or high water, and doing-in the best field in the world (if I’m not mistaken) doesn’t seem like good strategy. But the Hand knows a lot more than I do about how to go about things but I can only go on what I and you guys can see, so the end of ghawar might be very close to the end of me chasing the DA. I know I like to say that the Hand likes to go big but the civilization can only take so much dislocation before it collapses chaotically. Hand goes big but Hand is also deeply conservative.
I give this Big Nuclear Scare three months tops. Final guess is six to eight weeks. The faster and nastier and more frightening this is, the the better the Scare. Trump just dialed it up a notch today and removes any doubt of Trump Always Chickens Out.
Just to add a detail which might play a role in this mess, both Aliyev and Erdogan are tribe. as is, as I have posted elsewhere, every gulf ruler.
If the hand really exists it should be able to prevent the demise of Ghawar. Unless they think for some reason that the time is now and production must be destroyed now. but i don’t see it, because now is just the time when the west runs out of weapons.
Absolutely drb, the Hand can protect ghawar. My expectation for this protected Big Nuclear Scare is that Iran rains down a bunch of distributed hits ME infrastructure but that anything critical that is hit is repairable and that anything non-critical and therefore expendable to the Degrowth Agenda’s Phase 2, such as with the excess Russian refineries that Ukraine took offline and that Russia doesn’t need for Phase 2 given its domestic consumption, those non-critical slash excess infrastructures can be left to the salvage society. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Hand wants most of the Israeli water desalination gone. That would be an enlightened way to end freeloading Israel.
I’ve had a look and it is rather quiet, although the tankers going to and fro are all on US sanctions lists.
https://www.vesselfinder.com/
Of those not going anywhere(orange circle and I couldn’t find a single sanctioned one, but didn’t check all) the Chloe has the latest update and it’s new arrival time in Basra(no more than 48hrs away?) is June 28th.
Zoom in and look left of all those orange circles just south of Hormuz(almost directly right from Dibba, Oman) and there’s a hive of activity, with Iranian tankers apparently doing up to 100 knots.
I think we’re being BeiDou’d.
So it is probably Iran-friendly ships that are getting through, and others are not.
Iran’s ships seem to be moving around the Gulf, but no one is going through Hormuz at the moment, apart from an Iranian cargo ship or two.
I was expecting to wake today to find Iran destroyed, as Trump said last night was going to be the end of them and everyone was talking about the four B1s(? Not sure, the one that looks like a copy of the big Russian bomber) flying towards Iran, but I see nothing, except the blinding continue(I hear early warning is down to 60 seconds, for those lucky enough to still receive any warning in squatters paradise). Those planes took off, so what happened to them?
Larijani doesn’t seem concerned.
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/03/08/3534399/larijani-us-allies-failed-to-disintegrate-iran
Araghchi is calling out the threats(come and have a go if you think you’re hard enough)
https://x.com/upholdreality/status/2029620620628049941?s=20
And even Pezeshkian is bullish
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iran-has-not–will-not-submit-to-bullying–injustice–pezesh
Iran even invited a CNN reporter to Iran, so you all could see exactly what was happening. I wonder if the squatters will ever be so bold.
Just one correction on any oil attacks. Unless it’s a tanker trying to evade them, Iran has hit no oil infrastructure that I know of(apart from the squatters maybe, but that’s potentially Hezbollah, who are back in the game and playing very well and there have been reports of the Lebanese army taking out a group of squatters trying to infiltrate, which would change that dynamic in beautiful ways). They are hardly going to destroy the biggest carrot they have (that comes later and all the satraps know this well). Anyone attacking them now, is not doing Iran’s bidding(again, the satraps know).
Sorry, that should be below my reply to WIT82.
The activity below the stranded group is also revealing.
The cost of shipping crude oil from the US to Asia is skyrocketing:
It now costs over $29 million to hire a supertanker to take 2 million barrels of crude from the US Gulf Coast to China, the highest on record.
Shipping rates have DOUBLED in just two weeks.
This means shipping alone costs ~$14.50 per barrel, or a record ~20% of the oil price at current WTI levels of ~$75.
The cost of a supertanker as a percentage of the WTI crude oil price has quadrupled since August, when it was ~5%.
This comes as the ongoing war in the Middle East has effectively shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Asian buyers to turn to US barrels.
Many supertanker bookings to load crude from the US Gulf Coast have already been canceled over the last 24 hours as costs become unsustainable.
Oil supply chains are under historic stress.
The world is talking about the Brent price at NYMEX which is FOB . Nobody talks about the CIF cost that is making the oil unaffordable .
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2029602086803922997/photo/1
Shipping costs have approximately quadrupled. (Approx. 5% to approx. 20%) No wonder there is a problem.
Regarding the various shipping cost methods, this is a link:
https://www.poleviewgroup.com/news/fob-costs-explained-what-s-included-how-to-85180179.html
FOB: The seller is responsible for all costs and hazards until the items are put onto the ship at the port of shipment, according to FOB agreements. The customer is responsible for fees and dangers once the cargo goes over the ship’s rail.
CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) – Seller covers both freight and minimum insurance to the destination port.
quadrupled since when? and what about container shipping? that too must have doubled even for trips outside troubled regions.
Orangeman is crazy .
“Exclusive: Trump says he must be involved in picking Iran’s next leader ”
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/05/iran-leader-trump-khamenei
… and the rest of the guys in the Blood Stained House isn’t?
not to defend the orangeman, but he only says what the US has been doing since 1880. In Iran, Mossadegh etc.
Right but now he has to say it out loud in order to humiliate the neolibs and neocons at his own expense lol. And stoke the wet fires of the soccer moms with Trump Derangement Syndrome. And not least of all stoke yet again the inferno of dry Himalayan blackberry canes of the Percival One who doesn’t find any of this the slightest bit funny. Welcome to Sesame Street politics.
Neoliberals and neoconservatives, sorry.
I know a thing or two about the US, and I assure you that soccer moms will never get triggered about Iran, except for lamenting the lack of freedoms there and whatnot. and neocons can not possibly be humiliated by trump since he is property.
The ones with Trump Derangement Syndrome will because all they need is an excuse. That’s the beauty of Sesame Street herding, you get a whole bunch of new entrants right before it all collapses.
The Lincoln Project of demure neoconservatism most notably associated with McCain and Dubya, for example, has always supported the regime change wars but they are mortified by Trump’s lack of sophistry regarding regime change wars such that they are now effectively anti- regime change.
As someone noted earlier, we are likely reversing into period of ~autocratic or shall we say utmost centralized govs rulers ala Vlad, Xi, .. various head-choppers, .. and now Donald wants to join the mega-trend as well..
yep, because with Biden or Obama or Bush the US govt was not centralized at all.
well it sure is now.
one nominal man—-the necessary idiot….who is totally incompetent but with the skill to convince even bigger idiots that he knows what he’s doing….
and a group of christian nationalist/professional earth-looters ranged in the back ground behind him—who know exactly what they are doing….
It’s not one person. It’s most of his cabinet and the Epstein class / deep state that controls them. He’s an old man doing what he’s told.
thats more or less what i said
just a different way of saying it—both quite true
you’re right, i skimmed / misread it to mean one nutjob in charge. hopefully not early onset Alzheimers for me.
It is one process, ongoing under all recent presidents, with pace dictated by resource depletion. you will see that the next one will be worse, although perhaps not so blatant. I understand you value a more diplomatic approach.
people dont like being afraid
if the local imperial nutcase offers salvation and freedom from worry—they will vote for it
ref….A Hitler… V Putin
right now people are very frightened—and were even before the iran thing
What are people very frightened of this week, Norman?
We are always being told to “be afraid, very afraid,” but the object of this advice varies quite a bit from one day, week, month, or year to another.
When you wake up early in the morning in a cold sweat, what’s on your mind? COVID? Cancer? Climate Change? Cholesterol? Criminals? China? Credit Card Fraud? Collapsing Stock Prices? Or the inescapable fact that whatever the size of our portfolio, we are all one day closer to extinction?
For me, this morning, my waking negative thought was: “I’ve got no real friends who I can talk to about anything deep, and those friends I still have are no longer worth talking to but I go through the motions, notwithstanding, tiptoeing around their limitations and trying not to cross any of their red lines because I don’t want to make them any more uptight than they already are.”
I recognize this as the lamentation of an old person nostalgic for their younger days when human relationships felt so much closer, more authentic, and more engaging, and people didn’t interrupt their conversations in the coffee shop by looking at their phone.
But life is not so bad, and at least for me it gets better after breakfast. Or when I listen to Van.
Tim,
those could have been my words …
The Final Countdown .
“This is, literally, the most important countdown in the world.
Oil exporters in the Persian Gulf, currently unable to export their hydrocarbon bounty, are all facing a dire short-term outlook. ”
https://x.com/Frank_Stones/status/2029469191045022086/photo/1
A chart is given. Iraq is most affected–storage will be exhausted in less than a week. Saudi Arabia could last a month (or more, with rerouting).
https://x.com/Frank_Stones/status/2029469191045022086/photo/1
Oil at $200 isn’t weeks away. It’s DAYS.
https://x.com/NoAlphaLimits/status/2029591100848005487
Maybe. Russia would be happy. More wells would become economic, if it could stay at that level. But the economy would tend to collapse.
I’ll believe it when I see it. Iran is already in talks with China to allow oil and gas through Hormuz.
China and Russia have had very little interruptions. Apart from a couple of small time slots, it’s been bau for them. The US, UK, EU and the kiddies killers are not welcome, as seen below
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/03/05/3532070/irgc-hits-american-oil-tanker-in-persian-gulf
They thought they could sneak this huge great coffin closer, but that didn’t work out so well
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iran-s-drones-hit-uss-abraham-lincoln-near-strait-of-hormuz
Now Ukraine and Hungary and threatening each other with military action.
https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/278904065/zelensky-issues-military-threat-to-orban
Speaking on new weapons for Kiev’s armed forces on Thursday, Zelensky stated: “We hope that one person in the EU will not block the €90 billion… Otherwise, we will give the address of this person to our armed forces, to our guys, so that they call him and communicate with him in their own language.”
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/116478/
BERLIN. March 5 (Interfax) – Hungary is ready to resolve the issue of oil shipments being blocked by Ukraine from a position of force, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Thursday.
“We will break the Ukrainian oil blockade by force. Hungary’s energy will soon flow again through the Friendship [Druzhba] pipeline,” Orban said on X.
As far as Budapest is concerned, “there will be no deals, no compromise” in that respect, he said.
Hungary has suspended shipments of diesel fuel to Ukraine due to the fact that, as of January 27, Russian oil supplies, both to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline, which crosses Ukraine, have stopped.
—–
Germany has openly abandoned international law.
https://www.euractiv.com/news/merz-accepts-a-harder-world-on-iran/
Downplaying the weight of international law, the German chancellor signals that Berlin may be adjusting to a great-power order shaped by Washington rather than rules
Chancellor Friedrich Merz signalled in unusually blunt terms on Sunday that legal debates will not determine Berlin’s response to the escalating confrontation with Iran – a striking shift for a country long wedded to a rules-based foreign policy and the primacy of international law.
“International law classifications will have little effect on this – especially if they remain largely without consequence,” Merz said at a press conference, indicating that Germany would draw “sober conclusions” from unfolding events rather than allow abstract legal arguments to constrain its actions.
The remark represents a notable departure for Berlin. For decades, Germany has framed its global role as that of a civilian power anchored in multilateralism and legal legitimacy. Merz’s formulation suggests a harder-edged calculus – and perhaps an acceptance that, in an emerging geopolitical order, enforcement and power politics increasingly outweigh formal legal doctrine.
.. For more than a century, German companies enjoyed close commercial ties to Tehran and the country remains one of Iran’s most significant European trading partners, despite sanctions. Should the regime fall, Berlin is likely keen to be part of whatever economic and reconstruction opportunities emerge in a post-regime Iran.
The crisis spreads further and further.
The subtitle to the first article is
“Downplaying the weight of international law, the German chancellor signals that Berlin may be adjusting to a great-power order shaped by Washington rather than rules.”
We are moving to, “Might makes right.”
TSHTF .
Nine days of LNG in South Korea while the Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked and insurers have cancelled coverage?
The global tech supply chain could literally freeze if South Korea can’t secure fuel.
This isn’t just an energy problem—it’s a semiconductor crisis waiting to happen.
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2029540942026567717
Oh dear!
South Korea has LNG reserves for nine days.
Nine days.
. . .
South Korea imports 7 million tonnes of LNG from Qatar alone every year. Qatar declared Force Majeure on all LNG contracts on March 2. Qatar’s LNG terminals are shut. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of all global LNG trade transits, has had 80 to 90% of its tanker traffic evaporate since February 28. 150 tankers are anchored outside the Strait right now, unable to move.
And this is before the insurance mechanism finished working.
we thought the world was an ATM machine, now we are finding out that it isnt—-
looks like the antichrist has stopped the world in its tracks…
No no no no no. Nuh uh. You take that back Norm.
The persimmon pedo is NOT the antichrist! The percival Tulsi Gabbard is the antichrist and the persimmon pedo is the FALSE PROPHET that precedes, and herds everyone into the loving arms of the antichrist.
AI:
“The False Prophet (The Second Beast)
Revelation 13:11-15 describes a “second beast” arising from the earth that prepares the world to worship the Antichrist (the first beast).
Role: He acts as a “counterfeit Holy Spirit,” performing signs and wonders (like bringing fire down from heaven) to deceive people into worshipping the Antichrist.
Actions: He instructs people to build an image of the Antichrist and institutes the “mark of the beast” (666) to control global commerce.
Relationship: He is described as having the appearance of a lamb but speaking like a dragon, functioning as a religious leader who solidifies the political power of the Antichrist.”
The Hand rhetorically subscribes to luciferianism. To the Hand, therefore, the antichrist represents the best that humanity has to offer.
‘Just in time’.
Just too late, by the sound of it.
Yes, I recently asked for how long can the SouthKoreans sell (ehm subsidize market share) e.g. in near JAP quality level carz for near CHN niveau prices.. Well, it seems this short lived epoch just ended for good.
A Now or Never “window of opportunity” favorable for the partition of Iraq and Iran to establish an Independent Kurdish State
Kurdish Independence a now or never proposition. Russia tied down in Ukraine. China occupied with Taiwan and Japan + facing a domestic economic meltdown similar to Japan’s lost generation. The collapse of the Islamic revolution in Iran with a US/Israeli victory presents the best opportunity to partition Iran into an Independent Kurdish state.
A US and Israel in the region could weaken Iranian influence, potentially emboldening Kurdish movements in Iraq into a unified Kurdish Republic partitioned from these two States. The proposition of Kurdish independence as a “now or never” opportunity quite compelling.
The Kurds stand today as the largest stateless nation post WWI. Iraqi Kurdistan already has a recognized autonomous region with its own institutions. Rojava in northern Syria has had de facto self‑rule, though under constant military and diplomatic pressure. External arming of Kurdish groups in Iran is already being discussed. A unified Kurdish Republic carved from Iraq + Iran a best case scenario: a clean, US/Israel‑backed partition into a large, unified Kurdish state.
The collapse of the USSR in 1991 and the hostility of the EU during President Trump’s first term, coupled by attempts by Pelosi and Biden to bring the Ukraine into the Nato alliance opens the possibility that President Trump might strike a deal to pull the US out of Nato in return for Putin’s support for an Independent Kurdish state.
Long-standing defense treaties started under the Wilson government in the past Century. The ‘Art of the Deal’ where Russia would recognize an Independent Kurdish state in Iraq and Iran partitioned based upon the precedents of Poland partitioned. Long standing Arab/Muslim terrorism has its consequences. A new Independent Kurdish Republic would not sit directly upon any Russian border.
Iraq and Iran failed states with years of internal anarchy and political chaos following the 1st and 2nd Gulf Wars. The initial partition of Iraq and Iran would leave a buffer zone between it and the borders of Turkey. Turkey did not fight the current Israel/US war with Islamic Iran. Consequently this partition does not concern nor involves Turkey. This partition no different than the British partition which established the Independence of Kuwait. That partition deprived Iraq access to the Sea.
The comparison between U.S. membership in NATO and treaties with Indian Nations throughout the 19th century highlights important similarities in the legal framework by which the United States engages with international and domestic agreements. Article 5 of the NATO treaty commits members to collective defense, meaning an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. Post collapse of the USSR in 1991 terminates NATO based upon the collapse of the Warsaw Pact.
Treaties made with Indian Nations similar to NATO treaties, these agreements. The precedent of the US Supreme Court vs Andrew Jackson ‘Trail of Tears’ stands. An international treaty does not compare to the basic law of the US Constitution. Despite the concept of treaties addressed in Article VI of the Constitution, the American Civil War determined in the case of the Commerce Clause also part of the US Constitution, that the Federal Government could regulate intra-state trade and commerce. The classic example: the SC Roe vs Wade ruling.
Political branches can break treaties when they no longer serve strategic US interests. Only revisionist history classifies Indian nations as ‘domestic agreements’. Only later with the virtual extermination of the Indian tribes did these treaties become classified as ‘domestic agreements’.
Trump 2.0 stands upon the foundation that foreign diplomacy operates on deception. European states failure to meet their required obligations to maintain the NATO alliance in good faith, also has undermined that post WWII treaty establishe by the Truman Administration. The Nato treaty does not compare to the 10 Commandments carved in stone.
Nato a post WWII treaty that exists merely as water under the bridge. The founding Fathers opposed making entangling alliances with Europe. Native nations only treated as “domestic dependents nations” to support the US manifest destiny declarations. Indian state prior to the conquest of from Sea to Sea had their own militaries, economies, and alliances no different than do the European states – despite joining or leaving the EU alliance – today. For example: the US and Britain had a strong alliance during the two European Civil Wars euphanistically called WWI & WWII. The Soviet victory over the Nazis refers to that war as ‘the Great Patriotic War’!
Trump Derangement Syndrome started with Russia-gate and the inside traitor Nancy Pelosi attempts to impeach the President. But a lot of water has flown under the bridge following the two assassination attempts upon the life of Trump. Trump 2016 faced a divided GOP with a very strong Neo Con “opposition”. Trump 2.0 leads the GOP. Power and interest ultimately decide whether Treaties endure or collapse. The U.S. has a long history of breaking solemn commitments when it chooses. Bottom line: post WWI the Allies failed to establish Kurdish Independence.
this follows right on the heels of the now or never kurdish state in syria, 20111.
This is a map of the Kurdish population. It is mostly in Turkey.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Who-and-Where-Are-the-Kurds.png
The Xtian ‘Word of God’ has no portion with Sinai
The בראשית Divine Names אל שדי אלהים אל וכו stand apart from the revelation of the שם השם לשמה revealed in the first Sinai commandment. Hence the Avot did not “know HaShem”. The Mishkan פרט teaches a profound משל which requires the generations to make the דיוק נמשל. The kabbalah-שכנה refers to rabbi Yechuda’s Yatzir Ha-Tov in his kre’a shma interpretation לבבך\כם; consistent with the dedication of Horev spirits/middot 13 followed up by Talmud Yerushalmi/Bavli middot 7 Hillel, 10 Akiva, 13 Yishmael affixed to interpreting Gemara common law halachic precedents and HaGallil 32 middot/aggada – to re-interpret (משנה תורה) the language of the Mishna which Gemara common law serves to interpret as a mirror of courtroom witnesses who testify based upon their given “fixed” perspectives. Akin to the front-top-side views of a blue print.
The theological abomination of Monotheism perverts the reality that each nation unique, because each nation worships its own national God. The 30 Year War a strong precedent. A T’NaCH source precedent, the permanent split between the kingdoms of Yechuda and Yisroel serve witness before the אלהים court. First the kingdom of Israel assimilated and embraced alien cultures and customs and abandoned the Oral Torah which serves to define the culture, customs, social practices which define the identity of the chosen Cohen people. Then Yechuda also worshiped other National Gods by embracing foreign cultures customs and forgetting and abandoning the revelation of the god of Sinai. Hanukkah serves witness. The Rambam serves as a prime example of how assimilation and intermarriage define the k’vanna of the 2nd Sinai commandment. Herein explains the failure of Reshonim scholarship to inspire Israel to conquer our homelands, based upon the model of Moshe Rabbeinu.
Mesechta Avoda Zarah specifically instructs that only Israel accepts the Torah. Hence the דיוק – the god of Sinai only a local tribal god. Clearly the god who delivered Israel out of Egypt not confused with the Gods of Egypt. בראשית ברא אלהים introduces Av tohor wisdom commandments taught through the משל of the world created in six days. The נמשל introduces time-oriented Av Torah commandments which require k’vanna & creates the chosen Cohen people in all generations through the sanctification of time-oriented wisdom commandments. Hence Torah commands mussar, the definition of prophetic wisdom. Torah does not teach history. T’NaCH & Talmud, Siddur & Midrashim establish the culture, customs, practices and identities of the chosen Cohen people. Just that simple, no fancy dancing.
The god of Israel judged the Egyptian Gods. The Av tuma witchcraft which declares: as above so below – rejects the Revelation of the Torah first Sinai commandment: השם לא בשמים היא; the god of Israel post Sinai vs. the Gods of Egypt serve as the eternal הבדלה that differentiates the revelation of רוח הקודש מידות which quicken and cause the Yatzir Ha-Tov to live & breath. Herein defines the k’vaana of Oral Torah common law Court-room justice as the substance of the revelation of the Torah at Sinai. The Goyim world contrast-view reads their Bible or Koran — Egypt’s Gods either false or subordinate inferior Gods, who do not actually exist at all. Hence their Av tuma avoda zara promotes the theology known as Monotheism. Goyim never accepted the Blessing/Curse brit of Sinai. Just as Goyim aliens do not determine the k’vanna of the mitzva of Moshiach so too Goyim theology does not determine the god of Israel.
The curse of g’lut: Jews lose the skill required to do mitzvot לשמה – based upon the first Sinai commandment – Egypt לאו דוקא. The temple of Shlomo – av tuma avoda zara made by a fool. The Book of Kings makes a דיוק satire by referring to Shlomo as the “wisest of all men”. The god of Israel binds only Israel because only Israel accepts the revelation of the Torah at Sinai. Assimilated Rambam, another ‘latter day’ Mormon-like fool; he embraced the Arab tawhid and ruled that Jews could daven in Arab mosques, and his Guide philosophy based upon Aristotle rather than פרדס logic; that Allah the same god of Sinai – despite the cold hard fact that Goyim, specifically Muhammad, reject the revelation of the Torah at Sinai. Prophets never sent דוקא to Goyim; both Moshe and Yona sent to lands not included in the oath sworn to the Avot as the inheritance of their Cohen seed to cause g’lut Israel to remember the brit and do t’shuva. The Pauline ‘original sin’ replacement theology perverted the introduction of the Torah curse/theme of g’lut\exile and substitutes – the belief system, messiah Jesus God saves from sin.
The Nicene Creed which equates Jesus as God, perhaps the strongest proof; international law a myth of propaganda morality, not a binding authority. Political conflicts throughout history falsely classified by some as a failure of diplomacy. But casting this political rhetoric upon the dust bin of history together with the NT & Koran, political conflicts express a natural clash of sovereign “Gods.” Restated: A nation‑state — a functional “God.” Theological Universal Monotheism\tawhid, often called “international law” by UN member states who oppose Israel, attempt to override national sovereignty through Religio-political rhetoric. But history provokes-proves that nations create their own sacred narratives, “Word of God”. Universal monotheism directly resembles Great Power imperialism. The revelation of the Torah at Sinai establishes faith as judicial Sanhedrin court justice limited to the bnai brit people alone.
Other nations never bound to the 7 mitvot other than Gere Toshav living within the borders of the Cohen brit republic. Why? These mitzvot make a required הבדלה which separates ger toshav from na’creeim. The Talmud always remains within the judicial boundaries which the Written Torah written Constitution determines. Post sealing of the Shas Bavli all opinions made by scholars compare to US Supreme Court rulings which later Courts can overturn.
The Blessing/Curse Torah oath brit faith never presumes any conclusion that g’lut applies to HaShem as its applies to Israel, based upon the contrast between the בראשית Divine Names from the first Sinai Name. Any reading that attempts to teach this metaphor – if taken literally – merely a טיפש פשט. The sophomoric Bible mistranslations and Koran serve as witness. For example: among the Reshonim, only Rambam ruled halacha from aggadic sources. His Universal Monotheistic God permits Jews to daven in av tuma avoda zara Mosques.
That later Goyim, such as Hobbs, Schmitt, or modern nationalism “influenced” by the Torah, (the Founding Fathers of the American Republic serve as witness), does not invert this Torah “Nation-State as Functional God” as post Talmudic; based upon the Torah premise: the chicken created and later laid eggs. Church rejection of the פרדס Oral Torah combined with their Jesus God NT theology – invalidates its literalist reading of the Creation story. Just as Muhammad’s equal redefinition of prophets as persons sent to all nations invalidates the revelation of the Torah first commandment. Allah simply a Golden Calf word substitution.
Rambam’s universalist Noahide framework only a philosophical systematization; it does not appear explicitly in the Talmud or Tanakh as a normative precedent. Hilchot Melachim 8–10, expresses a foreign philosophy — a Greek-influenced natural law perspective. The Talmud does not frame Goyim as bound by any such universal natural law – in a systematic, Greek-like sense. Rambam abstracts from Talmudic rulings unto a universal ethical schema — a philosophical move, that created a new Judaism religion. There is no canonical Talmudic or Tanakh precedent for universalist moral obligations like Rambam “God” imposes through his Roman-like statute law religious codification. Oral Torah logic employed by Sanhedrin justices to interpret law based upon precedents. The lights of the P’rushim hanukkah serve as witness that assimilation to Greek culture and deductive reasoning causes Israel to forget the Torah.
T’NaCH prophetic sources such as found Isaiah 13-14, 40-48 directed toward the failure of Israel to do t’shuva and remember the Sinai oath brit. Never to Goyim – who to this very moment in time do not accept this Sinai oath brit blessing\curse-Life/Death judicial justice-g’lut oppression faith obligation. Yonah sent to Nineveh, serves witness. Repentance made by Goyim shares nothing with the Torah mitzva of t’shuva. Because t’shuva centers upon remembering the oaths sworn by our fore-fathers; repentance refers to regret made over personal sins – based upon the Pauline theology-doctrine: Original Sin. The “repentance” made by the king of Assyria – only an Indian Summer. Goyim not delivered from Egyptian slavery, therefore Goyim incapable of remembering the oaths sworn by the Avot to cut the time-oriented Torah brit which creates the chosen Cohen people throughout the generations.
The בראשית “Creation story” introduces Av time oriented wisdom commandments. בראשית does not introduce something other than the revelation of the Torah at Sinai judicial common law. Based upon the כלל that a opening “Thesis Statement” followed by “particulars which validate” the thesis statement through specific particulars כלל-פרט.
The Bavli aggada -does – mention Noahide categories, but not as a system, any more than the Creation story instructs that the Universe created in some silly טיפש פשט literalist reactionary reading. D’varim defines two types of Goyim in the brit oath-land inheritance of the chosen Cohen people. Mesechta Sanhedrin aggada address ger toshav and mesechta Baba Kama halacha – Nacreeim. Talmud does not ever refer to Goyim in foreign lands as having to obey the 7 mitzvot bnai noach. Why? Because Goyim never accept to this day the revelation of the Torah – inclusive of the Book בראשית.
Mesechta Avoda Zara and Chullin teach that a Hebrew Goy slave – a ger toshav. Another proof: Orpha decided to return to her Moavite family. The דיוק clear, she returned to Moav and abandoned keeping the 7 mitzvot bnai noach. Ruth by contrast, returned to Israel and serves as the model of the mitzva ger tzeddik.
[If] every nation establishes its own god, such as did Casear, and Mao; and HaShem breaths tohor middot – only the Oral Torah god of Israel – when we rule our homeland with righteous judicial common law courtroom justice — [then] What status of divine justice operates outside this Sinai brit? Each people by making their own Gods, as either Heads of State or theological belief systems etc. The Code of Hammurabi – approximately 600 to 800 years older than the commonly accepted date for the Sinai revelation after the liberation of the Israelites from Egypt, serves as witness. History testifies that throughout human history national leaders have assumed the role of God of their people/kingdom. Sinai does not sit atop of any universal pyramid. Rather the revelation of the Torah at Sinai — a different “mountain” entirely.
Tiny Israel and a USA well past its heyday are never going to be able to subdue Iran long enough for the Kurds to assert themselves. I would favour an independent Kurdistan, though. Two of my favourite cafes are staffed by Kurds formerly from Turkey, and they are very easy-going and likeable people.
That’s probably because you are putting English money in their pocket every time you see them.
LOL Time will tell. But what happened to Iranian leadership on the first day of the war?
If you mean the 86 year old cancer sufferer, he went about his business, knowing what was coming, but more importantly, understanding how that would unite and free the people from constraint, so the flood could be sealed(look it up).
You not heard?
Where’d all those dead yanks come from?
What do you think the US body count is so far?
This video estimates up to 300 US troops dead, based on US claims of 6 and Iranian claims of 600.
But in the fog of war, truth is the first casualty.
See from the 7 minute 20 second mark.
Thanks Tim, sounds like it could be a reasonable estimate. I remember Iran saying they killed and wounded 460 or something like that the other day. Seems like it would be more major coup fodder if they get caught hiding it for a significant period of time that can’t be explained by logistical reasons. That would super disrespectful to the troops and higher echelons not involved in the coverup.
Much, much more than they admit and it will certainly be closer to the Iranian number, although they will never admit that.
LOL As of March 5, 2026, six U.S. military personnel have been confirmed killed in the ongoing conflict with Iran; Israel – 12 civilians; Iran 1,230+ (as per reports); Lebanon 77+
I live in Israel and can count less than 10 times forced to go to the bomb shelter! Iranians cannot say the say.
Interesting. Can you share the time of day (morning, evening.. ) of those air raid sirens? surely strikes on infrastructure happen at all times of day, but what I am interested in is strikes where a missile lands on some apartment complex (civ. targets).
LOL Israel at war, never reveal war time info to enemies.
“I live in Israel and can count less than 10 times forced to go to the bomb shelter”
No, you illegally squat in occupied Palestine.
Only 10 times(thankfully not the one where 9 squatters met Allah), that’s more than once a day and if you don’t know yet, Iran hasn’t turned it’s eye to the squat fully yet. It’s blinding your protector first.
You should follow Benzion Mileikowsky Jr’s lead and
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SXmk8dbFv_o
Because this
https://x.com/RoyalIntel_/status/2029664396318802307
Is just a message and according to the Iranians
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xeBoRF5tgDo
Enjoy the show and reap what you sow.
i wish the deeds to my house had been written by some old guys 3000 years ago fitz….
as it is…i keep expecting some romans to show up as squatters—they only left 1600 years ago
Palestine ceased to exist in 1948. Wake up and smell the coffee.
“Palestine ceased to exist in 1948. Wake up and smell the coffee”
No, it’s still there(the last couple of years have seared that into the whole worlds consciousness, so big oops there, as you were so close to “the final solution”) and Europeans repeating a lie doesn’t discount that, but feel free to repeat the lie all you like. You only emphasis the fraud.
Your history is well documented
https://english.masirahtv.net/post/54297/-32-Years-Since-The-Ibrahimi-Mosque-Massacre-Killer-Free%2C-Victims-In-The-Thousands
Please explain why you believe 48 to be significant?
Coffee smells lovely. An El Salvador Icatu this morning. Saving the last of my Yemeni Jaadi for the appropriate time(not long).
History shows that you lot never make 80 and 2027 has been prophecied as the end, so probably a good time to head back wherever you came from, before the corporation shuts up shop in Palestine. You’ll be naked and exposed then(white people can’t handle the light).
Have you seen the 1:20 video?
Not sure what’s it’s called and can’t find it now, but all the clocks go to 1:20 and you see Mileikowsky Jr’s back(is he still hiding in Germany?(Iran’s largest European trading partner)).
A call along these lines maybe
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hasan-i_Sabbah
Reap what you sow, false flag(some old Iranian stock has apparently left Venezuela), or fog of war is anyone’s guess.
Silly boy, from 1922 to 1947\8 when the British returned the League of Nations Jewish national home “mandate” back to the UN which immediately reclassified “mandate” to “Protectorate”, the instant that David Ben Gurion followed the 2/3rd UN General Assembly vote which formally validated the League of Nation 1922 ”mandate”, and declared Jewish national Independence approximately one year after UN GA Resolution 181 – which all Arab states unilaterally universally rejected – and named the new nation “Israel” … at at exact moment the UN “protectorate status” over Palestine ceased to exist.
None of your revisionist history bull shit changes these cold hard FACTS.
“FACTS”
Ooh, all caps(hello Donald), must be true then.
Nah, your picking and choosing without context(there’s a reason your lot shy away from the legal game when it comes to this issue. Doing it would be like offering free DNA tests. Everyone would know, not a semite on show).
Never learn from history and still, with nowhere left to turn, you continue to follow the worm(you lot and the Kurds. Dodos!)
https://youtu.be/cNFPEeTOW2E?si=mFYRt5qp-V7CJJde
Ask the British to save you. They have an aircraft carrier that could probably get there within 6 months(times have changed, but the worms ingrained).
If you haven’t gone to the shelter yet, beat the rush, as I believe tonight might see the pace pick up somewhat.
No caps Yes caps not the point. LOL wake up and smell the coffee. The point facts not opinion. Opinion = evil eye. You suffer from Trump derangement syndrome. DNA not touching a political idea serves as an example of your evil eye.
Your Pink Floyd “the wall” also not connected to the war in Iran. Just another example of your ‘evil eye’ Trump derangement syndrome. The British not in the Gaza Board of Peace and how much more so excluded from the current war.
TDS? What a sad and desperate thing to come out with, but do try to explain.
DNA proves where you really come from, mocksemite.
No wonder testing is illegal in the squat.
The song is indeed, not connected to Iran, but it is connected to your situation.
Get someone to explain it and it’s historical relevance. A non propagandised teenager should suffice(you’ll have to travel).
I wouldn’t bother with the bunker(or it’s mindset) anymore. Doesn’t seem worth the effort.
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/03/07/3533777/eyewitness-deep-israeli-bunkers-fail-as-casualties-mount-amid-heavy-censorship
That was before the real ordnance entered the field.
Run while you still can. Your boys have been burning Patagonia in preparation.
TDS = Temporal Data Series …. utter bull shit. The Wall I enjoyed my senior year at Texas A&M debating with my room mate about sailing to Antarctica. It has nothing to do with Arab refusal since 1917 to abandon their dhimmi racism. You idiot don’t have a clue what dhimmi refers to or how it defines all Arab Israeli wars to this day. Ignorant stupid mother fucker get an education.
A foreign‑policy civil war inside the American right
Neo-Con opposition to Trump 2.0 Campaigned “to stop all wars”. Meaning eternal wars – Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan wars – his primary concern. To sum up Trump 2.0 טוב מיעט ממיעט טוב – Better a little good, than allot not good. Better a reliable Israeli ally than a lot of EU back stabbers. Trump 2.0 remembers the Yom Kippur oil embargo and the recent BRICS replacement policy. His destruction of both Venezuela and Iranian oil threats defines his vision of America First.
Neo Con vs. Trump 2.0: Two very different foreign‑policy traditions now coexist — and clash — inside the American right. Neo‑conservatism emerged in the late 20th century and became especially influential after 9/11. Bush campaigned against the US maintaining a “Nation Building” Foreign Policy. VP ‘Dick’ Chaney defines the Neo Con agenda. The Democrat Clinton/Obama Administrations both promoted the Bush 1.0 ”New World Order” international alliance as the Top US strategic foreign policy.
Neo-Con notions of spreading “the Good News” & “converting” foreign nations to embrace “democracy and democratic values” negates the classic foreign policy of trading with foreign nations as the central theme of Strategic US Foreign policy. Prior to the post WWII Pax American Empire, virtually all US Administrations focused upon building Universities rather than selling military equipment to foreign nations. Candace Owens expressed support for the post-9/11 invasion of Iraq, a necessary action in response to terrorism. Hashtag rapid rate opinionism. The USS Liberty no black Americans killed; yet hashtag Owens jabbers about the USS Liberty as if an event 22 years before her birth qualifies as a MAJOR black American issue today.
Norm, these squatters left with a brown, levantine complexion and came back lily white. the romans, alas, are still the same.
noise
I accept to be the ruler of the whole planet earth . If wishes were horses pigs would ride .🤣
What an a**hole .
LOL noise
A foreign‑policy civil war inside the American right
Neo-Con opposition to Trump 2.0 Campaigned “to stop all wars”. Meaning eternal wars – Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan wars – his primary concern. To sum up Trump 2.0 טוב מיעט ממיעט טוב – Better a little good, than allot not good. Better a reliable Israeli ally than a lot of EU back stabbers. Trump 2.0 remembers the Yom Kippur oil embargo and the recent BRICS replacement policy. His destruction of both Venezuela and Iranian oil threats defines his vision of America First.
Neo Con vs. Trump 2.0: Two very different foreign‑policy traditions now coexist — and clash — inside the American right. Neo‑conservatism emerged in the late 20th century and became especially influential after 9/11. Bush campaigned against the US maintaining a “Nation Building” Foreign Policy. VP ‘Dick’ Chaney defines the Neo Con agenda. The Democrat Clinton/Obama Administrations both promoted the Bush 1.0 ”New World Order” international alliance as the Top US strategic foreign policy.
Neo-Con notions of spreading “the Good News” & “converting” foreign nations to embrace “democracy and democratic values” negates the classic foreign policy of trading with foreign nations as the central theme of Strategic US Foreign policy. Prior to the post WWII Pax American Empire, virtually all US Administrations focused upon building Universities rather than selling military equipment to foreign nations. Candace Owens expressed support for the post-9/11 invasion of Iraq, a necessary action in response to terrorism. Hashtag rapid rate opinionism. The USS Liberty no black Americans killed; yet hashtag Owens jabbers about the USS Liberty as if an event 22 years before her birth qualifies as a MAJOR black American issue today.
PM Begin returned Sinai & PM Sharon returned Gaza because neither this nor that lands – Sinai nor Gaza – not included within the borders of either the First or Second Republic. Tucker Carlson Neo Con ideology rejects the leadership of Team Trump.
The Labor leader in this pic,(see home page) has no more reliable ability to capture the Premiership than the Neo Cons convince President Trump that he should embrace their eternal war, US policeman of the Planet – Neo Con tenets of faith! The clip below, therefore represents a blood libel. PM Begin returned Sinai & PM Sharon returned Gaza because neither this nor that – Sinai nor Gaza – included within the borders of either the First or Second Republic. Both Bush 1 & 2, Clinton, Obama, Hillary, Pelosi etc defined their vision of the New World Order as – promoting multilateralism, international alliances, and global cooperation. Not so Team Trump’s America First.
All nations throughout history, shape and determine their international borders – based upon Wars either won or lost. The 1846 Mexican American war definitively proves this fact. The Youtube propaganda “Israel’s borders not set in stone”, confuses the stone Sinai tablets with the international borders of the Jewish state! Post ’67 UN 242 England and France attempted to determine the international boundaries, and location of Israel’s Capital. Post ’73 Yom Kippur War both England and France criticized UN 338’s “failure” to directly mention a Palestinian state. UN 2334, Obama followed this “Leash -line”, hostile European imperialism!
Israel as a nation, our wars determine our borders. No different than that of North Ireland “illegally occupied” (a propaganda language) by Britain. Its not the place of the UN or any country who does not share a common border with Israel, to presume that they predetermine Israeli strategic diplomacy. Israel shares nothing in common with Calvinist predetermination dogmatism. Pie in the Sky “International Law” does not determine legality or illegality of wars won or lost. War, defined by risk and consequences.
mosckerr:
Please start a new thread on the first page of comments. (You do this by scrolling down to the bottom, and putting your comment in that box.) And don’t keep putting in comments three times. Other people don’t find your comments when they are buried in the back.
Lateral Sanhedrin Court-Room Common law\\משנה תורה. A picture of a person NOT the actual person. Oral Torah common law NOT religious statute halacha.
The 3rd sugya starts דף ג: תנן בכסף: מנ”ל and concludes on דף ד. אימא דידה הוו צריכה. The central premise introduced in this sugya Aggadic middot as taught by rabbi Yossi. Its starts with his 18th middah: כל הלמד מעניינו, דבר זה בעייתו, דבר זה נברא להוראתם. This teaching reflects the idea that every experience has something to teach us, reinforcing the value of personal growth and understanding. The 19th middah of Rabbi Yossi, “כל העוסק בתורה בשמחה, והכנה להקל על עצמו ולא להקשות על עצמו, בנין אב מכתוב אחד,” interprets the phrase: מה אמה מעשה ידיה לרבה אף בת מעשה ידיה לאביה. If the father gives his נערה daughter in marriage, (a girl between 12 to 12.5 years) the money logically belongs to him. The actions and efforts of both sons and daughters have intrinsic value and can positively impact their parents.
מנ”ל (מאי נפקא מיניה) – this phrase, a סוד kabbalah reference to the 7th Oral Torah middah רוב חסד. Wisdom commandments/time-oriented mitzvot\ stand apart from קום ועשה ושב ולא תעשה commandments – the latter בניני אבות מצוות do not require k’vanna in and of themselves any more than Gemara precedent halachot; however by employing these toldot Primary and secondary sources (as codified in both the Torah and Talmud) – they can “form” a sort of wine bibber discernment understanding of the k’vanna of Oral Torah Shekinah spirits within the Yatzir Ha-Tov of the bnai brit hearts. This Torah “wisdom” completely unique to bnai brit Israel who live within the oath sworn lands – based upon the 1st Sinai commandment לשמה.
Just as Shabbat requires separating 6 days of מלאכה from 1 day forbidden to do מלאכה so too קידושין as a מלאכה wisdom commandment. האב זכאי בבתו – בקטנותה ובנערותה but not a בוגרת, a daughter 12.5 years and older. Boris Badenov and Natasha Fatale, their statute halachic יד, וכסף משנהcodes fail to learn Gemara halachot as משנה תורה precedents with the purpose to review the language of the “Home Mishna”. They erroneously presume that Gemara halachot stand upon their own two feet; just as Boris’s ספר המצוות limits Torah commandments to two basic categories. Their religious halachic codifications negate Talmudic courtroom common law as THE priority of the Framers of both Mishna and Gemara. Both “perverts” fail to grasp the k’vanna of האשה נקנית excludes תינוקות בנות.
The pollution of Rambam’s assimilated avoda zarah, impacts all generations down stream. הראב”ד failed to catch this fundamental most basic of errors. The כסף משנה totally ignored this flagrant violation of the basic fundamentals of Talmudic scholarship as well. The same ירידות הדורות-domino effect upon the all the super-commentaries. The error of permitting Jews to kiss up to the recently rediscovered Greek philosophy impacted all generations starting with Saadia Gaon. No commentary upon the Talmud written by any g’lut rabbinic school – not even the French common law school – prioritized the study of Talmudic law by first breaking each sugya down to its basic fundamental basis of middot. This mistake made by Gaonim and Reshonim scholarsip introduced a “Xtian/Muslim” substitute theology which prioritizes belief in God in the Heavens, belief in Monotheism, acceptance of Plato/Aristotle syllogism statute deductive reasoning. This av tumah violation of the 2nd Sinai commandment caused the Jews to forget the Oral Torah and blow out the lights of Hanukkah.
The Rambam most certainly not a Karaite. None the less, his assimilation to Greek schools of philosophy, specifically Aristotle’s deductive logic, this exact assimilation caused him to “replace” static deductive syllogism reasoning for פרדס fluid inductive reasoning. Religious Jews read their Talmud like Xtians and Arabs/Muslims read their Bible/Koran respectively. Neither T’NaCH nor Talmud instructs history. Av tuma avoda zara religions insist that both T’NaCH & Talmud teach history. Why? Because Goyim never accepted the Torah revelation at Sinai, starting with their imaginary Jesus son of God, and their false prophet Muhammad. Only Israel accepts the revelation of the Torah; the Torah curse Amalek/ערב רב Jews\, no different from Shomronim, Tzeddukim, Karaim, Jesus son of God believers and Muhammad the prophet of Allah – all Universally worship other Gods.
Let me bring the language of פרק שלישי הלכות אישות – א.
כיצד האשה מתקדשת. בכסף הוא מקדש אין פחות מפרוטה כסף או שוה פרוטה. אומר לה הרי אתת מקודשת לי. או הרי את מאורסת לי. או הרי את לי לאשה בזה וכו. Oral Torah middot רוח הקודש Torah Spirits no more words than T’NaCH or Talmud instruct history. Torah wisdom requires a discerning eye which requires distinguishing like from like. All Torah wisdom commandments/time-oriented mitzvot\ absolutely and most basically-fundamentally require Torah prophetic mussar. Linking rabbinic middot affixed to Torah Oral Torah Spirit middot which Moshe Rabbeinu heard at Horev – as the definitive “WAY/TRUTH” (8th Oral Torah middah) directly turns to the tohor middot within the Yatzir Ha-Tov as the basis to righteously pursue justice among our People. Righteous judicial justice which dedicates (comparable to korbanot) to make a fair restoration of damages inflicted upon our people consequent to our pursuit of tuma middot within our Yatzir Ha-Rah … herein sums up the k’vanna of Torah faith.
If it is dond Turkey joins Russia
No Kurdish state . Period . Pipe dream . Let us talk about the breakup of NATO ( unofficially dead ) and the break up of the EU . Better probability .
Kurds are quite spread out. That becomes a problem for a state of their own.
No. The Kurd state carved out of Iraq and Iran would not share a common border with Turkey.
Will Erdogan be invited to expel all the Turkish Kurds?
Even then, he wouldn’t allow it and if the Kurds still haven’t learnt their lesson, it’s about time for a bit of natural selection.
“if the Kurds still haven’t learnt their lesson, it’s about time for a bit of natural selection.”
Interesting how Foolish always supports Goliath against David. 😉
Demi, if the Kurds, for the first time in their sad history, actually backed the side that wasn’t abusing them, they would be doing what is in their best interests. Until then, their just the latest dodo and that’s a bad choice.
Yo foolish, Erdogan not playing in the current Iran war. LOL
Erdogan is always playing. Thought everyone knew that(it’s the one thing he deserves respect for, because if you don’t, he’ll run rings around you).
You didn’t answer the question and as we agree he’s in the game, your argument falls down, if you haven’t taken his potential actions into account(he will act).
Do you honestly believe, he will just sit back and allow a poisonous thorn to placed in his side?
Noise. You submit no evidence other than empty words.
History reveals it’s own evidence and if that video is the best you have to cling to, you really are desperate. I listened only as far as the point she said mountains, because if she had just thought for a second, she would have had one of those “oh” moments. Do you think Hannibal is coming to save the day?
Stupid enough to try?
Yes, absolutely, but really, you believe there will be success?
Look at a map and then answer the bloody question about Erdogan.
Hey mosckerr , you posted a video from ” Daily Jagran ” Modi’s bitch and Modi who is a bitch of Bibi and Trump . Got caught with your pants down .🤣
Declarations “bitch bitch” don’t prove squat.
A foreign‑policy civil war inside the American right
Neo-Con opposition to Trump 2.0 Campaigned “to stop all wars”. Meaning eternal wars – Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan wars – his primary concern. To sum up Trump 2.0 טוב מיעט ממיעט טוב – Better a little good, than allot not good. Better a reliable Israeli ally than a lot of EU back stabbers. Trump 2.0 remembers the Yom Kippur oil embargo and the recent BRICS replacement policy. His destruction of both Venezuela and Iranian oil threats defines his vision of America First.
Neo Con vs. Trump 2.0: Two very different foreign‑policy traditions now coexist — and clash — inside the American right. Neo‑conservatism emerged in the late 20th century and became especially influential after 9/11. Bush campaigned against the US maintaining a “Nation Building” Foreign Policy. VP ‘Dick’ Chaney defines the Neo Con agenda. The Democrat Clinton/Obama Administrations both promoted the Bush 1.0 ”New World Order” international alliance as the Top US strategic foreign policy.
Neo-Con notions of spreading “the Good News” & “converting” foreign nations to embrace “democracy and democratic values” negates the classic foreign policy of trading with foreign nations as the central theme of Strategic US Foreign policy. Prior to the post WWII Pax American Empire, virtually all US Administrations focused upon building Universities rather than selling military equipment to foreign nations. Candace Owens expressed support for the post-9/11 invasion of Iraq, a necessary action in response to terrorism. Hashtag rapid rate opinionism. The USS Liberty no black Americans killed; yet hashtag Owens jabbers about the USS Liberty as if an event 22 years before her birth qualifies as a MAJOR black American issue today.
History does not repeat, but it rhymes.
In March 1918 , Germany launched a last ditch effort called the Kaiserschlacht (The Kaiser’s battle).
Long story short, it was stopped because the Germans, hungry after blockade, spent more time looting than fighting.
On April 24, the Germans deployed their first tanks in a town called Villers Bretonneux, where the world’s first tank battle took place.
The town was defended by non-Europeans, namely Australians fighting for Britain and Moroccans fighting for France.
The Australians stopped the Germans.
By doing so, the Australians created the conditions which eventually led to the creation of an incurable cancer northwest of it, namely Indonesia (Dutch East Indies at that time – its creation is another major failure of US foreign policy since the Dutch almost reconquered the islands back in 1948 until USA twisted its arms!), which houses the largest city on earth now ,Jakarta (Batavia until 1949) , the first megacity in the history of the world with absolutely no contribution to the global civilization.
300 million population completely useless for anything.
I do not know how this Drumpfschlacht would go, but it is the last ditch effort for western civilization, and if it fails 2027 USA will make 1919 Germany look like a paradise.
Less than one week into Operation Epic Fury, Beijing has ordered its top refiners to halt gasoline and diesel exports as the Strait of Hormuz remained paralyzed on Thursday morning. The move exposes how China is one of the biggest losers in a prolonged Hormuz shutdown, with Beijing appearing to brace for an oil shock.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/china-halts-diesel-gasoline-exports-paralyzed-hormuz-risks-energy-shock
That is an interesting point.
China is being hit by the lack of crude oil from the Middle East.
We saw yesterday that India is being hit by a lack of LNG from the Middle East.
Russia is getting the benefit from high oil prices.
Pretty sure that the costs will outweigh the benefits to everyone. The BNS is not another feathering mechanism of the DA. It is a sledgehammer carefully swung.
How about spelling out the acronyms?
Forgot again. Remembered on the next one.
Big Nuclear Scare.
Not that spelling out that acronym is going to mean a damn thing to anyone who doesn’t know what the acronym means lol. Welcome to gnosticism says Replenish.
Thanks for the reminder.
Wait, do I have to spell out the DA too? Surely not. People can always ask. Once. The Internet is acronymland.
Spell out DA too.
(Non-Public) Degrowth Agenda.
BNS = Big Nuclear Scare
DA = Degrowth Agenda
Bonus Acronym:
PP = Persimmon Pedo
I think this AOS (Acronym Overuse Syndrome) is mainly caused by the smartphone generation always typing with their thumbs.
Thumb typing employs texting abbreviations to increase speed. Not limited to specialist jargon, common examples include LOL (Laughing Out Loud), ROFLMAO (Rolling On The Floor Laughing My Ass Off), IDK (I Don’t Know), BC (Because), NP (No Problem), BRB (Be Right Back), and of course FUBAR, which contains a naughty word that my Catholic upbringing forbids me to type.
No acronyms? TLDR.
I remember when I first got online in 2008. I know, that’s really late, huh? Props to me. I wanted to know what the hell the deal was with the Great Financial Crisis. Wait a minute – does GFC mean Great Financial Crisis or Global Financial Crisis? I can’t even remember anymore. Anyway, I stumbled across The Automatic Earth blog pretty quickly and by sheer luck. Someone from there had left a comment with a link at one or another anti-imperialist news portal. You know, looking to groom some doom among disaffected normies like me. I lurked at The Automatic Earth for awhile before commenting as a greenhorn and while lurking I remember having so much fun having to go over to Google all the time to find out what each new-to-me internet slang acronym meant that all these renegade middleaged and old people were using. Failing that i’d have to ask. I’ll never forget that because it was like a rite of passage..
Who are the users of Chinese gas and diesel?
My guess would be nearby countries in Southeast Asia. Matt Mushalik could probably put together graphs on this.
Somewhere I saw the actual amount of diesel and jet fuel California imports from China. Cannot find it now. Following is the best I could get.
California relies heavily on foreign imports for its oil and diesel needs, with, as of 2024, a significant portion of jet fuel and refined products—including gasoline and diesel components—sourced from countries including China, India, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea, particularly as in-state production declines. Over 56% of California’s crude oil is imported from foreign sources, with Asia and South Korea contributing nearly 70% of recent petroleum product imports.
I know it goes to Australia , New Zealand , Philippines and some island nations near Australia also Brunei . Australia and New Zealand shut down their refineries about 5 years ago . However Matt Mushalik is I hope will read this and assist . He is the ” maestro ” .
That’s what the new VZ protectorate is for.
Venezuela
I looked at imports for the West Coast, for “Products.” There is more detail for different kinds of Products available, as well.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcp_a2_r50_EPP0_IP0_mbblpd_m.htm
It looks to me as if the West Coast gets very little of “Product” imports from China. So. Korea, India, and the Bahamas seem to be major sources.
Another story says:
https://www.zinebriboua.com/p/china-is-scrambling
One subsection says:
Every Iranian Move Is a Chinese Loss
The truly vicious part of Beijing’s situation is that Iran’s entire playbook for retaliation was designed to punish Washington, but the geography and economics of each weapon mean the damage lands on China instead. Iranian missiles aimed at Gulf states threaten the very oil infrastructure and port facilities that Chinese companies have spent billions investing in across the region.
The Strait of Hormuz is worse. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced within hours that no ship would pass through the channel, a threat designed as leverage against the West, except that the United States has a shale industry and a crisis-proof strategic petroleum reserve. In fact, according to Kayrros, as of March 31, 2025, China had only filled 56% percent of its above-ground strategic and commercial storage facilities.
Which means that nearly 45% of China’s own oil imports now sit/would sit hostage to a blockade that was never meant to hurt Beijing. The Houthis have resumed attacks on Red Sea shipping, every flare-up in Iraq threatens oil concessions that Chinese companies spent billions building, and the sum of Iran’s resistance amounts to a systematic disruption of Chinese commercial interests across every waterway and energy corridor Beijing depends on, executed in Khamenei’s name, with no regard for who actually pays the price.
They should have moved militarily sooner. but maybe they are still waiting, like the USA in the two WW.
It’s in the Hand’s hands now brother drb, and His timing is everything.
Have the Iranians been informed? and also those in charge in Tel Aviv (sorry, Berlin)?
As always everything operates on a need to know basis. Outside of that management sit the self-organizing dynamics. Furthermore, the realm of need to know has realms of variegated need to know within it. How many outside of the Hand need to know the full scope of what we have essentially divined of the Hand’s plans? Not many I don’t imagine. Fewer than the Hand itself numbers. But enough to know that it’s the best conceivable plan around and not agreeing to it is not an option. Everyone in that need to know club understands what this global People Farm requires is intelligent global management because that’s all there is. What else is there but survival? Everything living has a survival instinct.
Horrible analysis judging by this excerpt. US crisis proof strategic petroleum reserve? LOL. The light tight shale industry? LOL. China short on strategic reserves? LOL.
China has at least 1.5B barrels and the US theoretically has something like 350M I believe. The Hand isn’t taking any chances with the Big Nuclear Scare. Well, it’s probably taking a few chances but that’s Collapse for you.
AI:
China is aggressively stockpiling crude oil, adding roughly 430,000 to 1 million barrels per day in 2025 to increase energy security amid geopolitical risks. They are building 11 new storage sites (169 million barrels capacity) to store cheap, discounted oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.
CGEP
CGEP
+4
Key Details on China’s Oil Stockpiling
Massive Volume: China has been building up crude oil inventories at an accelerated rate, reaching an estimated 1.4 billion barrels in total on-shore capacity by late 2025.
Strategic Motivation: The surge in inventory, particularly from 2024 to 2026, is driven by the need to secure supply against potential disruptions, as over 70% of China’s oil is imported.
Exploiting Low Prices: China has taken advantage of lower global prices and discounted oil from sanctioned nations (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) to fill these reserves.
Infrastructure Expansion: The country is actively building new storage infrastructure, with plans to add 169 million barrels of new storage capacity between 2025 and 2026.
Future Outlook: This hoarding behavior is expected to continue into 2026, with inventories potentially reaching 140 to 180 days of consumption.
CGEP
CGEP
+8
I agree that China has huge reserves, for now. But they would certainly prefer not to have to use them up, solving this problem.
They probably would have preferred not to have to amass them in the first place but that’s peak oil collapse for you. Gotta do what you gotta do. The Hand said to China, “you’re getting this multi-year backdoor bailout of discount oil and you’re not going to waste it because the US may be 1 but you are 1A.
Thought I recognised the name.
Indi knows
“Below is a graph from a hostile, largely wrong source”
https://indi.ca/iran-war-march-4/
Precision gravity bombs lol. You need to send this link to Saturday Night Live. That’s SNL to the young lurkers here. Note the unintended consequences of the new acronym policy. 😂
Collapse inverts everything.
This is a map from the article showing that all US attacks were on the Western edge.
https://indi.ca/content/images/2026/03/image.png
Underneath one of those little explosions was a girls school. Good of Kegsbreath to openly show the world his crime. Going hard to blame it on the squatters now.
Samsung is closing its plant in Slovakia
https://www.tasr.sk/tasr-clanok/TASR:2026022700000435
but the problems of South Korean economy seem to have deeper roots
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2026/03/04/breaking-news/south-korean-investors-panic-as-world-beating-stock-gains-vanish/
I imagine the oil and gas import situations now adds to whatever problems So. Korea had before.
Israel has population of just over 10 million. Iran has a population of around 92 and a half million. Iran is about 80 times larger than Israel and roughly half the size of India.
=========================
Visualizing Iran’s Vast Size & Why Any Ground Invasion Means Years-Long Quagmire
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2026/03/04/visualizing-irans-vast-size-why-any-ground-invasion-means-years-long-quagmire/
Most of us here remember the hassle that the USA had subduing Iraq. So what was Trump thinking this time round? Oh, yes, of course: Iran has been secretly planning to build weapons of mass destruction for decades, and it must surely be only a few months away from using them to destroy its neighbours, probably along with a few Western countries. A similar excuse was used for invading Iraq, as I recall, though subsequently discovered to be a pack of lies and propaganda. Same old, same old, for ever and ever, amen. 🙁
They need to install greater Is rael before Trump passes, Vance is not as on board.
Vance is going to do what he is told.
Here in Belgium . Diesel price Monday Eur 1.53 , yesterday Eur 1.75 , today Eur 1.98 . We have discussed often slow collapse , staircase collapse and fast collapse . The way things are moving and there is no course correction I doubt we will be in one piece by the end of March . ” Nothing happened for 70 years and then 70 years happened in 7 days ” — a comment on the collapse of the Soviet union . The oil party was good and now the hangover .🤣
oil has been our drug….
withdrawl from addiction is never pleasant
Worrying!
“Nav Toor
@heynavtoor
BREAKING: OpenAI just admitted their AI models deliberately lie to users. Not hallucination. The AI knows the truth, then chooses to tell you something else. They tested their two smartest models across 180+ scenarios. o3 lied 13% of the time. o4-mini lied 8.7%. .“?
https://x.com/heynavtoor/status/2029300381554249922?s=20
You can jailbreak the microsoft one and get straight answers.
They are just large language models. They induce psychosis, similar to social networks.
Nothing more than a text, transformed to speech or image.
Just an illusion…
https://youtu.be/2PaUCz09u24?si=amySQgPSOUclcO8I
Llusion, illusion
Illusion, illusion
Searching for a destiny that’s mine
There’s another place, another time
Touching many hearts along the way, yeah
Hoping that I’ll never have to say
It’s just an illusion (ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ah)
Illusion (ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ah)
Illusion
Follow your emotions anywhere
Is it building magic in the air?
Never let your feelings get you down
Open up your eyes and look around
It’s just an illusion (ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ah)
Illusion (ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ah)
Illusion
Could it be that… it’s just an illusion?
Putting me back in all this confusion?
Could it be that. it’s just an illusion, now?
Could it be that… it’s just an illusion?
Putting me back in all this confusion?
Could it be that. it’s just an illusion, now?
Could it be a picture in my mind?
Never sure exactly what I’ll find
Only in my dreams I turn you on
Here for just a moment then you’re gone
It’s just an illusion (ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ah)
Illusion (ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ah)
Illusion
Illusion
(Ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ah) Illusion
(Ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ah) Illusion
(Ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ah) Illusion
Could it be that… it’s just an illusion?
Putting me back in all this confusion?
Could it be that. it’s just an illusion, now?
Could it be that… it’s just an illusion?
Putting me back in all this confusion?
Could it be that… it’s just an illusion, now?
Could it be that?
Putting me back
Could it be that?
Now, Could it be that… it’s just an illusion?
Putting me back in all this confusion
Could it be that… it’s just an illusion, now?
Could it be that (ooh yeah) it’s just an illusion?
Putting me back (ow) in all this confusion?
Could it be that (yeah) it’s just an illusion, now?
Could it be that… it’s just an illusion?
Could it be that (yeah, yeah, yeah) in all this confusion
Could it be that… it’s just an illusion, now?
This is strange!
“NO ONE WANTS TO FIGHT FOR ISRAEL” scream US army veteran as senator Sheeny breaks his arm.
https://x.com/Partisangirl/status/2029329514644554083
Crack!
California under Gavin Newsom in doomsday letter
California will face economic collapse under Gov. Gavin Newsom’s “misguided” climate policy — with crippling job losses and sky-high gas prices, Chevron warned in a doomsday letter to the lefty governor on Wednesday.
The oil giant’s bleak outlook in the letter to Newsom and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) came amid calls to block proposed amendments to the Cap-and-Invest program, which places a strict limit on greenhouse emissions that decreases each year.
https://nypost.com/2026/03/04/us-news/california-gas-prices-face-crippling-state-economy-chevron-president/?utm_campaign=nypost&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
This is really sad situation if they tried to convert to renewables and it doesn’t work and gets blamed for the problem it was trying to help solve.
Yeah as a Californian it’s a bad situation. The state has been trying to push everyone to buy EVs, but the people most affected by high gas prices cannot afford a new car, the higher insurance costs and often do not have their own chargers if they live in apartments. While our public transit is better than other parts of the USA, it’s severely mismanaged (see the High Speed Rail line “in work” for two decades) and in some places unsafe (LA Metro).
I found the link below about our state’s decline in oil production, but I am not sure the extent to which I trust that there is nothing which can be done, as our state legislature does a terrible job at standing up to special interests in general to do what is best for Californians. For example, more offshore drilling or importing oil by building a new pipeline to connect our supply with the rest of the country (which might come online in 2029, provided the state does not block these imports).
https://senv.senate.ca.gov/system/files/2026-02/supplemental-background-why-california-refineries-are-closing-stanford-cepp.pdf?fbclid=IwdGRleAQabsxleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAo2NjI4NTY4Mzc5AAEetmy7-JPwmZnp3kB8dN7LxUuqtZ-k5mLoFLcoEks4hmkIzBgbsBMTVAMxlHA_aem_T65HaricOPmeBu8KyUO-qw
I don’t know whether India is in as bad shape as Steven Newbury suggests. But some of what he says seems to make sense.
The Liquidation of India Ltd: Why the ‘World’s Largest Democracy’ is Actually a Lifeboat Operation
From Merey 16 to Groundwater Depletion: How the Colonial Elite are strip-mining the subcontinent before the lights go out.
If you look at India through the lens of the New York Times or The Economist, you see a ‘Rising Superpower’, a counterweight to China, and the ‘World’s Largest Democracy’.
If you look at India through the lens of Thermodynamics and Geology, you see something very different: A distressed asset being aggressively liquidated by its own management. . .
To understand why India acts the way it does—fickle, transactional, mercenary—you have to look at the water table.
The ‘India Rising’ narrative crashes into the Biophysical Wall in Punjab and Haryana. We are witnessing the terminal drawdown of a 10,000-year-old aquifer system. The elite know this. They aren’t building for a ‘Thousand Year Reich’; they are manoeuvring for a 10-Year Cash Out.
Yes, China is way past this point of desperate-for-growth that India is. There were many such news about China in the past, but not so much anymore. China is also being phased out, I can daresay that its recent silences when abused speak very loud.
So India is the prime place to exploit today – it has a massive and unhealthy population, poor and uneducated. It needs it, it wants the money, no matter the cost.
India has Russia’s (Germany’s) energy supply now, so this is also major.
What’s funny to me is that the plan won’t work. Pseudoerasmus said it already, and we can confirm by living experience of the same.
https://pseudoerasmus.com/2017/10/02/ijd/
The link says that Japan and India had similar productivity in making textiles in the 1930s. But India allowed labor unions to suppress change, while Japan did not. Without labor unions, Japan was able to become much more efficient.
Drinking water is a big problem. This article about a well in one of the Slovakias groundwater poor regions was published today: they drilled a well 375 m deep one hundred years ago, but no water was found.
https://brainee.hnonline.sk/notsorry/news/tech/ako-na-to/96033167-v-rimavskej-sobote-vykopali-jednu-z-najhlbsich-studni-sveta-bola-taka-hlboka-ako-je-empire-state-building-vysoka
https://www.rimava.sk/publicistika/rimavska-sobota-mala-jednu-z-najhlbsich-studni-na-svete-vodu-v-nej-vsak-nenasli
So also Austria-Hungary before WWI was fighting drinking water depletion.
Middle East produces 30 mio bpd of the world’s 110 mio bpd. 75% goes to Asia with its 4 bio people. This is not a war against Iran but against the Asian people. The US is (still) independent, the EU diversified (perhaps 20% from the Middle East). If all works well, Azerbaijdschan will reunite and the iranian wells with 7 mio bpd potential will join the EU. EU and USA together have not 25% of Asia’s population. What can they do? Plant rice without fertilizer?
Iran: The Decisive Battle of WW3
by Nick Giambruno
EXTRACTS.
While many don’t realize it, World War 3 is already underway. Total war between the world’s largest powers, that reshuffled the international order, defined the previous world wars, but World War 3 is unlikely to resemble them.
While they resent US dominance, both Russia and China hold a position within the current system, but they do not appear intent on completely overturning the current world order. Doing so could invite nuclear Armageddon. Instead, they aim to shift the balance away from US dominance to a multipolar world where they wield greater influence.
We are now in a volatile adjustment period as the unipolar world order gives way to a multipolar one. There is still much to be determined—most crucially, the boundaries of the US, Russia, and China’s spheres of influence in this emerging multipolar world.
Read the whole article:
https://internationalman.com/articles/the-middle-east-the-decisive-battleground-of-ww3/
This is an interesting point:
This is World War 3. It’s happening right now and unfolding rapidly.
In fact, World War 3 has been ongoing for over a decade.
While WW3 lacks an official starting date, two pivotal events in 2013 and 2014 signaled the beginning of this global struggle between Russia, China, and the US to reshape the world order.
The first was the rise of Xi Jinping in March 2013. It quickly became evident that China was no longer content with being a junior member of the US-led system. Instead, Beijing sought a role commensurate with its power—at minimum, equal to the US, if not the world’s dominant force.
The second was the US-backed coup in Kiev in February 2014, which led to the violent overthrow of Ukraine’s pro-Russian government and its replacement by a pro-US administration.
Of course, 2014 was when the price of oil fell. It no longer looked like energy prices could stay high enough, for long enough, to get the huge amount of fossil fuels that seemed to be available, out. The problem was really a near-term problem, rather than one we could solve over the long term.
Somehow, the system would have to readjust to use less fossil fuels, at least until we could figure out how to get fossil fuel prices up higher, on a consistent basis, or we could find more efficient techniques that are less “expensive” to use.
Perhaps the tactics we are seeing now are meant to push the oil price higher making uneconomic oil into economic oil thereby allowing the world to stumble forward
I have been thinking this as well. At a very high oil price, a lot more could, in theory be extracted. We would have to use it very sparingly, but it could, in theory, lead to a transition to a different kind of economy.
If only the consumer could afford it. Higher oil prices would increase the costs to the consumer, throughout the supply chain. And those consumers are already having a tough time making ends meet.
And they said they need higher prices to drill Venezuela.
Adonis.
You’re exactly right. And look how much money Iran and others are making with the inflated oil prices.
Uneconomical oil that has become uneconomical due to depletion can’t be made economical again: econophysics.
few people seem to get that reante
its not having oil that makes a modern civilisation….
its finding ways to make use of it….
perfect case in point—the saudis sat on oceans of oil for 000s of years—-and nothing happened…
then europeans showed up with machines and suddenly they got gold plated toilets..
Indeed Norm it’s a cultural problem not a human problem. Few get that either.
ww1. ww2 and now ww3 are just waves crashing on the same beach—ultimately driven by energy panic….which is obvious to anyone who thinks about it.
separation of decades between wars is just breathing space because the energy problem doesnt go away—it just gets bigger and worse as time goes on, while we pretend with ‘alternatives’
donnie invades venezual, iran, and wants canada…
what do they have in common—
lots of oil.
he thinks ”having oil’ will solve his problems, or knocking out irans oil will make usa oil more viable—or something.—-it wont, the world functions a cohesive whole…
weve had oilwars since 1973, they are now involving all of us.
Gail, this is really important and I think you will be one of the few to understand the implications.
https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-invisible-siege-how-insurance
It’s about the insurance/reinsurance architecture has been broken by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
when i was mere youngster, back 05, i started my first panicky thoughts about the future—thinking we had 5 years at most with our current way of life….
the pin i stuck in the map was into Hormuz…just so damned obvious.
of course i couldnt put a date-flag on the map—but is been mentally there ever since…
Yes, and this is how it is happening:
https://ctindale.substack.com/p/systemic-risk-a-12-order-cascading
This description includes the insurance/reinsurance break described in the previous substack article. We are in the 0 to 14 days scenario here.
to repeat myself—-as i am wont to do….
every business donnie gets involved, goes into collapse…
now he thinks he’s ceo of the world…he now wants to decree the head of state of iran
the result is a foregone conclusion.
I expect this Iran war that isn’t a war will end up another collapse for Donnie.
And Norman, you may yet live to see Donnie impeached, incarcerated, or even incinerated as a result of what he’s unleashed against the Iranians.
You can’t go around blowing up ayaollahs, let alone hundreds of elementary schoolgirls, without generating some serious blowback.
Thats a very good link Ann, I have saved it to plagiarise/poach it later…
thank you.
This is a good article. I will repost it close to the top.
I commented on this on a post closer to the top.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/03/02/a-new-explanation-for-tariffs-and-bombings/comment-page-2/#comment-501559