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Tag Archives: oil prices
Running Short of Tailwinds for the Economy
Strangely enough, the economy seems to move from tailwind to tailwind, as new resources are discovered, as population expands, and as central banks figure out new ways to fix the economy. In this post, I will describe some tailwinds affecting the economy. Many of these have recently lost their value or are likely to lose their value in the future. The long-term trend seems to be toward tailwinds becoming available to some parts of the world economy, but there may be major dips and shifts with respect to which segments of the world economy are favored. Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications
Tagged debt to GDP ratio, oil prices, population growth
2,257 Comments
2023: Expect a financial crash followed by major energy-related changes
If the world economy experiences major financial turbulence in 2023, we could be in for a rough ride. In my opinion, a major financial crash seems likely. This is could upset the economy far more seriously than the 2008 crash.
I am certain that some mitigation measures can be implemented. For example, there can be a major push toward trying to make everything that we have today last longer. Materials can be salvaged from structures that are no longer used. And some types of local production can be ramped up.
We can keep our fingers crossed that I am wrong but, with less oil and other energy resources available per person, moving goods shorter distances makes sense. Thus, the initial trends we are seeing toward regionalization are likely to continue. The move away from the US dollar as the reserve currency also looks likely to continue. Moreover, if the changes I am talking about don’t occur in 2023, they are likely to begin in 2024 or 2025. Continue reading
The economy is moving from a tailwind pushing it along to a headwind holding it back
When the Crisis Stage occurs, there are fewer goods and service per capita to go around, so some members of the world economy must come out behind. Conflict of all kinds becomes more likely. Political leaders, if they happen to discover the predicament the world economy is in, have little interest in making the predicament known to voters, since doing so would likely lead them to lose the next election.
Instead, the way the physics-based self-organizing economic system works is that alternative narratives that frame the situation in a less frightening way gain popularity. Political leaders may not even be aware of how dependent today’s economy is on fossil fuels. Researchers may not be aware that their “scientific” models are misleading because they look at too small a portion of the overall system and make unwarranted assumptions. Continue reading
Today’s Energy Crisis Is Very Different from the Energy Crisis of 2005
Back in 2005, the world economy was “humming along.” World growth in energy consumption per capita was rising at 2.3% per year in the 2001 to 2005 period. China had been added to the World Trade Organization in December 2001, … Continue reading
The world has a major crude oil problem; expect conflict ahead
World crude oil production has been falling behind needed levels since 2019. This problem, by itself, encourages the world economy to contract in unexpected ways, including in the form of economic lockdowns and aggression between countries. This crude oil shortfall seems likely to become greater in the years ahead, pushing the world economy toward conflict and the elimination of inefficient players. Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications, oil shortages
Tagged Food prices, Iran oil supply, oil prices, peak oil
4,255 Comments
