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- Understanding Deglobalization: The Role of Diesel and Jet Fuel
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- Too many promises; too few future physical goods
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Tag Archives: Maximum Power Principle
The Advanced Economies are headed for a downfall
Figure 1 shows that, for the Advanced Economies, GDP has been trending downward since the early 1960s; this is concerning. It makes it look as if within only a few years, the Advanced Economies might be in permanent shrinkage. In 2022, the expected annual GDP growth rate for the group of Advanced Economies seems to be only 1%. Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications
Tagged debt defaults, Maximum Power Principle, oil limits, World War III
1,532 Comments
Our Oil Predicament Explained: Heavy Oil and the Diesel Fuel it Provides Are Key
It has recently become clear to me that heavy oil, which is needed to produce diesel and jet fuel, plays a far more significant role in the world economy than most people understand. We need heavy oil that can be extracted, processed, and transported inexpensively to be able to provide the category of fuels sometimes referred to as Middle Distillates if our modern economy is to continue. A transition to electricity doesn’t work for most heavy equipment that is powered by diesel or jet fuel.
A major concern is that the physics of our self-organizing economy plays an important role in determining what actually happens. Leaders may think that they are in charge, but their power to change the way the overall system works, in the chosen direction, is quite limited. The physics of the system tends to keep oil prices lower than heavy oil producers would prefer. It tends to cause debt bubbles to collapse. It tends to squeeze out “inefficient” uses of oil from the system in ways we wouldn’t expect. In the future, the physics of the system may keep parts of the world economy operating while other inefficient pieces get squeezed out. Continue reading
