Back in 1776, Adam Smith talked about the “invisible hand” of the economy. Investopedia explains how the invisible hand works as, “In a free market economy, self-interested individuals operate through a system of mutual interdependence to promote the general benefit of society at large.”
We talk and act today as if governments and economic policy are what make the economy behave as it does. Unfortunately, Adam Smith was right; there is an invisible hand guiding the economy. Today we know that there is a physics reason for why the economy acts as it does: the economy is a dissipative structure–something we will talk more about later. First, let’s talk about how the economy really operates.
Our Economy Is Like a Self-Driving Car: Wages of Non-Elite Workers Are the Engine
Workers make goods and provide services. Non-elite workers–that is, workers without advanced education or supervisory responsibilities–play a special role, because there are so many of them. The economy can grow (just like a self-driving car can move forward) (1) if workers can make an increasing quantity of goods and services each year, and (2) if non-elite workers can afford to buy the goods that are being produced. If these workers find fewer jobs available, or if they don’t pay sufficiently well, it is as if the engine of the self-driving car is no longer working. The car could just as well fall apart into 1,000 pieces in the driveway.
If the wages of non-elite workers are too low, they cannot afford to pay very much in taxes, so governments are adversely affected. They also cannot afford to buy capital goods such as vehicles and homes. Thus, depressed wages of non-elite workers adversely affect both businesses and governments. If these non-elite workers are getting paid well, the “make/buy loop” is closed: the people whose labor creates fairly ordinary goods and services can also afford to buy those goods and services.
Recurring Needs of Car/Economy
The economy, like a car, has recurring needs, analogous to monthly lease payments, insurance payments, and maintenance costs. These would include payments for a variety of support services, including the following:
- Government programs, including payments to the elderly and unemployed
- Higher education programs
- Healthcare
Needless to say, the above services tend to keep rising in cost, whether or not the wages of non-elite workers keep rising to keep up with these costs.
The economy also needs to purchase a portfolio of goods on a very regular basis (weekly or monthly), or it cannot operate. These include:
- Fresh water
- Food of many different types, including vegetables, fruits, and grains
- Energy products of many types, such as oil, coal, natural gas, and uranium. These needs include many subtypes suited to particular refineries or electric power plants.
- Minerals of many types, including copper, iron, lithium, and many others
Some of these goods are needed directly by the workers in the economy. Other goods are needed to make and operate the “tools” used by the workers. It is the growing use of tools that allows workers to keep becoming more productive–produce the rising quantity of goods and services that is needed to keep the economy growing. These tools are only possible through the use of energy products and other minerals of many kinds.
I have likened the necessary portfolio of goods the economy needs to ingredients in a recipe, or to chemicals needed for a particular experiment. If one of the “ingredients” is not available–probably because of prices that are too high for consumers or too low for producers–the economy needs to “make a smaller batch.” We saw this happen in the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009. Figure 1 shows that the use of several types of energy products, plus raw steel, shrank back at exactly the same time. In fact, the recent trend in coal and raw steel suggests another contraction may be ahead.
Figure 1. World Product Consumption, indexed to the year 2000, for selected products. Raw Steel based on World USGS data; other amounts based of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016 data.
The Economy Re-Optimizes When Things Go Wrong
If you have a Global Positioning System (GPS) in your car to give you driving directions, you know that whenever you make a wrong turn, it recalculates and gives you new directions to get you back on course. The economy works in much the same way. Let’s look at an example:
Back in early 2014, I showed this graph from a presentation given by Steve Kopits. It shows that the cost of oil and gas extraction suddenly started on an upward trend, about the year 1999. Instead of costs rising at 0.9% per year, costs suddenly started to rise by an average of 10.9% per year.
Figure 2. Figure by Steve Kopits of Westwood Douglas showing trends in world oil exploration and production costs per barrel. CAGR is “Compound Annual Growth Rate.”
When costs were rising by only 0.9% per year, it was relatively easy for oil producers to offset the cost increases by efficiency gains. Once costs started rising much more quickly, it was a sign that we had in some sense “run out” of new fields of easy-to-extract oil and gas. Instead, oil companies were forced to start accessing fields with much more expensive-to-produce oil and gas, if they wanted to replace depleting fields with new fields. There would soon be a mismatch between wages (which generally don’t rise very much) and the cost of goods made with oil, such as food grown using oil products.
Did the invisible hand sit idly by and let business as usual continue, despite this big rise in the cost of extraction of oil from new fields? I would argue that it did not. It was clear to business people around the world that there was a large amount of coal in China and India that had been bypassed because these countries had not yet become industrialized. This coal would provide a much cheaper source of energy than the oil, especially if the cost of oil appeared likely to rise. Furthermore, wages in these countries were lower as well.
The economy took the opportunity to re-optimize. Part of this re-optimization can be seen in Figure 1, shown earlier in this post. It shows that world coal supply has grown rapidly since 2000, while oil supply has grown quite slowly.
Figure 3, below, shows a different kind of shift: a shift in the way oil supplies were distributed, after 2000. We see that China, Saudi Arabia, and India are all examples of countries with big increases in oil consumption. At the same time, many of the developed countries found their oil consumption shrinking, rather than growing.
Figure 3. Figure showing oil consumption growth since 2000 for selected countries, based on data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016.
A person might wonder why Saudi Arabia’s use of oil would grow rapidly after the year 2000. The answer is simple: Saudi Arabia’s oil costs are its costs as a producer. Saudi Arabia has a lot of very old wells from which oil extraction is inexpensive–perhaps $15 per barrel. When oil prices are high and the cost of production is low, the government of an oil-exporting nation collects a huge amount of taxes. Saudi Arabia was in such a situation. As a result, it could afford to use oil for many purposes, including electricity production and increased building of highways. It was not an oil importer, so the high world oil prices did not affect the country negatively.
China’s rapid rise in oil production could take place because, even with added oil consumption, its overall cost of producing goods would remain low because of the large share of coal in its energy mix and its low wages. The huge share of coal in China’s energy mix can be seen in Figure 4, below. Figure 4 also shows the extremely rapid growth in China’s energy consumption that took place once China joined the World Trade Organization in late 2001.
Figure 4. China energy consumption by fuel based on BP 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy.
India was in a similar situation to China, because it could also build its economy on cheap coal and cheap labor.
When the economy re-optimizes itself, job patterns are affected as well. Figure 5 shows the trend in labor force participation rate in the US:
Figure 5. US Civilian labor force participation rate, based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, as graphed by fred.stlouisfed.org.
Was it simply a coincidence that the US labor force participation rate started falling about the year 2000? I don’t think so. The shift in energy consumption to countries such as China and India, as oil costs rose, could be expected to reduce job availability in the US. I know several people who were laid off from the company I worked for, as their jobs (in computer technical support) were shifted overseas. These folks were not alone in seeing their jobs shipped overseas.
The World Economy Is Like a Car that Cannot Make Sharp Turns
The world economy cannot make very sharp turns, because there is a very long lead-time in making any change. New factories need to be built. For these factories to be used sufficiently to make economic sense, they need to be used over a long period.
At the same time, the products we desire to make more energy efficient, for example, automobiles, homes, and electricity generating plants, aren’t replaced very often. Because of the short life-time of incandescent light bulbs, it is possible to force a fairly rapid shift to more efficient types. But it is much more difficult to encourage a rapid change in high-cost items, which are typically used for many years. If a car owner has a big loan outstanding, the owner doesn’t want to hear that his car no longer has any value. How could he afford a new car, or pay back his loan?
A major limit on making any change is the amount of resources of a given type, available in a given year. These amounts tend to change relatively slowly, from year to year. (See Figure 1.) If more lithium, copper, oil, or any other type of resource is needed, new mines are needed. There needs to be an indication to producers that the price of these commodities will stay high enough, for a long enough period, to make this investment worthwhile. Low prices are a problem for many commodities today. In fact, production of many commodities may very well fall in the near future, because of continued low prices. This would collapse the economy.
The World Economy Can’t Go Very Far Backward, Without Collapsing
The 2007-2009 recession is an example of an attempt of the economy to shrink backward. (See Figure 1.) It didn’t go very far backward, and even the small amount of shrinkage that did occur was a huge problem. Many people lost their jobs, or were forced to take pay cuts. One of the big problems in going backward is the large amount of debt outstanding. This debt becomes impossible to repay, when the economy tries to shrink. Asset prices tend to fall as well.
Furthermore, while previous approaches, such as using horses instead of cars, may be appealing, they are extremely difficult to implement in practice. There are far fewer horses now, and there would not be places to “park” the horses in cities. Cleaning up after horses would be a problem, without businesses specializing in handling this problem.
What World Leaders Can Do to (Sort of) Fix the Economy
There are basically two things that governments can do, to try to make the economy (or car) go faster:
- They can encourage more debt. This is done in many ways, including lowering interest rates, reducing bank regulation, encouraging lower underwriting standards or longer term loans, taking out greater debt themselves, guaranteeing debt of non-creditworthy entities, and finding new markets for “recycled debt.”
- They can increase complexity levels. This means increasing output of goods and services through the use of more and better machines and through more training and specialization of workers. More complex businesses are likely to lead to more international businesses and longer supply chains.
Both of these actions work like turbocharging a car. They have the possibility of making the economy run faster, but they have the downside of extra cost. In the case of debt, the cost is the interest that needs to be paid; also the risk of “blow-up” if the economy slows. There is a limit on how low interest rates can go, as well. Ultimately, part of the output of the economy must go to debt holders, leaving less for workers.
In the case of complexity, the problem is that there gets to be increasing wage disparity, when some employees have wages based on special training, while others do not. Also, with capital goods, some individuals are owners of capital goods, while others are not. The arrangement creates wealth disparity, besides wage disparity.
In theory, both debt and increased complexity can help the economy grow faster. However, as I noted at the beginning, it is the wages of the non-elite workers that are especially important in allowing the economy to continue to move forward. The greater the proportion of the revenue that goes to high paid employees and to bond holders, the less that is available to non-elite workers. Also, there are diminishing returns to adding debt and complexity. At some point, the cost of each of these types of turbo-charging exceeds the benefit of the process.
Why the Economy Works Like a Self-Driving Car
The reason why the economy acts like a self-driving car is because the economy is, in physics terms, a dissipative structure. It grows and changes “on its own,” using energy sources available to it. The result is exactly the same effect that Adam Smith was observing. What makes the economy behave in this way is the fact that flows of energy are available to the economy. This happens because an economy is an open system, meaning its borders are permeable to energy flows.
When there is an abundance of energy available for use (from the sun, or from burning fossil fuels, or even from food), a variety of dissipative structures self-organize. One example is hurricanes, which self-organize over warm oceans. Another example is plants and animals, which self-organize and grow from small beginnings, if they have adequate food energy, plus other necessities of life. Another example is ecosystems, consisting of a number of different kinds of plants and animals, which interact together for the common good. Even stars, including our sun, are dissipative structures.
The economy is yet another type of a dissipative structure. This is why Adam Smith noticed the effect of the invisible hand of the economy. The energy that sustains the economy comes from a variety of sources. Humans have been able to obtain energy by burning biomass for over one million years. Other long-term energy sources include solar energy that provides heat and light for gardens, and wind energy that powers sail boats. More recently, other types of energy have been added, including fossil fuels energy.
When energy supplies are very cheap and easy to obtain, it is easy to ramp up their use. With growing supplies of energy, it is possible to keep adding more and better tools for people to work with. I use the term “tools” broadly. Besides machines to enable greater production, I include things like roads and advanced education, which also are helpful in making workers more effective. The use of growing energy supplies allows growing use of tools, and this growing use of tools increasingly leverages human labor. This is why we see growing productivity; we can expect to see falling human productivity if energy supplies should start to decline. Falling productivity will tend to push the economy toward collapse.
One problem for economies is diminishing returns of resource extraction. Diminishing returns cause the economy to become less and less efficient. Once energy extraction starts to have a significant problem with diminishing returns (such as in Figure 2), it is like losing energy resources into a sinkhole. More work is necessary, without greater output in terms of goods and services. Indirectly, economic growth must suffer. This seems to be the problem that the economy has been encountering in recent years. From the invisible hand’s point of view, $100 per barrel oil is very different from $20 per barrel oil.
One characteristic of dissipative structures is that they keep re-optimizing for the overall benefit of the dissipative structure. We saw in Figures 3 and 4 how fuel use and jobs rebalance around the world. Another example of rebalancing is the way the economy uses every part of a barrel of oil. If, for example, our only goal were to maximize the number of miles driven for automobiles, it would make sense to operate cars using diesel fuel, rather than gasoline. In fact, the energy mix available to the economy includes quite a bit of gasoline and natural gas liquids. If we need to use what is available, it makes sense to use gasoline in private passenger cars, and save diesel for commercial use.
Another characteristic of dissipative structures is that they are not permanent. They grow for a while, and then collapse. Later, new similar dissipative structures may develop and indirectly replace the ones that have collapsed. In this way, the overall system is able to evolve in a way that adapts to changing conditions.
What Are the Likely Events that Would Cause the Economy to Collapse?
I modeled the system as being like a self-driving car. The thing that keeps the system operating is the continued growth of inflation-adjusted wages of non-elite workers. This analogy was chosen because in ecosystems in general, the energy return on the labor of an animal is very important. The collapse of a population of fish, or of some other animal, tends to happen when the return on the labor of that animal falls too low.
In the case of the fish, the return on the labor of the fish falls too low when nearby supplies of food disappear, and the fish must swim too far to obtain new supplies of food. The return on human labor would seem to be the inflation-adjusted wages of non-elite workers. We know that wages for many workers have been falling in recent years, because of competition from globalization, and because of replacement of human labor by advanced machines, such as computers and robots.
Figure 6. Bottom 50% income share, from recent Piketty analysis.
Besides the problem of falling wages of non-elite workers, earlier in this post I mentioned a number of other issues that make the wages of these workers go less far. These include growing government spending, and the growing costs of education and healthcare. I also mentioned the problem of rising debt, and the increased concentration of wealth, as we try to add complexity to solve problems. All of these issues make it hard for “demand”–which might also be called “affordability”–to be sufficiently great to allow commodity prices to rise to the level producers need for profitability.
Prices Play a Very Important Role in the Economy
The pricing system is the communication system of the economy, as a dissipative structure. One use of energy is to create “information.” Prices are a high level form of information.
One big area where prices come up is with respect to the whole portfolio of products needed on a regular basis, which I mentioned earlier (water, food, energy products, and mineral products). In order for the system to continue working, the prices need to be both:
- Affordable by consumers
- High enough for producers to cover their costs, including a margin for taxes and reinvestment
Now, in 2017, prices are “sort of” affordable for consumers, but they are not high enough for producers. Oil companies will go out of business if these low prices persist.
Back in 2007 and 2008, we had the reverse problem. Prices were high enough for producers, but too high for consumers (especially non-elite workers). This is a big part of what pushed the economy into recession.
We noticed back in Figure 1 that quantities of energy products/goods tend to move up and down together. A similar phenomenon holds true for prices: commodity prices tend to rise and fall together (Figure 7). The reason this happens is because when the world economy is moving swiftly forward (higher wages, more building activity, more debt), demand tends to be high for many different types of materials at the same time. When the economy slows, prices of all of these commodities tend to fall at the same time. Inflation tends to fall as well.
Figure 7. Prices of oil, coal and natural gas tend to rise and fall together. Prices based on 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy data.
If prices cannot rise high enough for producers, it is likely a sign that wages of non-elite workers are already too low. The affordability loop mentioned earlier is not being closed, so prices cannot stay up at a high enough level to maintain production.
Most Modelers Overlook the Fact that the Economy Is an Open System
Most energy models are based on one of two views of the world: (1) fossil fuel energy supply will eventually run short, so we must use it as sparingly as possible; or (2) we want to reduce the use of fossil fuels as quickly as possible, because of climate change. Because of these issues, we want to leverage the fossil fuel energy we have, to as great an extent as possible, with energy that we can somehow capture from renewable sources, such as the solar energy or wind. With this view of the situation, our major objective is to create “renewables” that use fossil fuel energy as efficiently as possible. The hope is that these renewables, together with the actions of governments, will allow the economy to gradually shrink back to a level that is somehow more sustainable.
Implicit is this model is the view that the economy, and the world in general, is a closed system. Our current government and business leaders are in charge; they can make the changes they would prefer, without the invisible hand causing an unforeseen problem. Very few have realized that the economy cannot really shrink back very much; past history, as well as the nature of dissipative structures, shows that economies tend to collapse. The only economies that have at least temporarily avoided that fate have shifted toward less complexity–for example, eliminating huge government programs, such as armies–rather than yielding to the temptation to add ever more complexity, such as wind turbines and solar panels.
The real situation is that we have a here-and-now problem of too low wages for non-elite workers. Commodity prices are also too low. Intermittent renewables such as wind and solar are thought to be solutions, but it is well-known that intermittent renewables cause too-low prices for other types of electricity generation, when added to the electric grid. Thus, they are likely part of the low-price problem, not part of the solution. Temporary solutions, if there are any, are likely in the direction of cutting back on government expenditures and reducing regulation of banks. In fact, with the election of Trump and the passage of Brexit, the economy seems to again be re-optimizing.
We also know that dissipative structures do not shrink back well, at all. They tend to collapse, instead. For example, you, as a human being, are a dissipative structure. If your food intake were cut back to, say, 500 calories per day, how well would you do? If you could not get along on a very low calorie diet, how would you expect the economy to shrink back to a renewables-only level? Renewables that can be used in a shrunken economy are scarce; we don’t have a huge number of trees to cut down. We cannot maintain the electric grid without fossil fuels.
The assumption that the economy is a closed system is pretty much standard when modeling our current energy situation. This occurs because, until recently, we did not understand that the self-organizing properties of inanimate systems were as important as they are. Also, modeling of the economy as a closed system, rather than an open system, makes modeling much easier. The problem is that closed system modeling doesn’t really tell the right story. For a discussion of some of the issues associated with this mis-modeling, see the recent academic paper, Is the increased use of biofuels the road to sustainability? Consequences of the methodological approach.
Some great observations by RE (Reverse Engineer) over at the Doomstead Diner. FYI, RE used to be in high finance before the GFC struck in 2008.
<a href=http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2017/03/05/oil-glut-its-the-demand-stupid/Oil Glut: IT’S THE DEMAND, STUPID!
http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Oil-Stockpile.png
This condition of extreme glut has to break, and the only way to break it is a major reduction in the price. When that comes, there will be carnage all across the energy and banking industries. I don’t know how long before the last storage tank and VLCC tanker will be full up, but I can’t imagine it is too far off. The End Game Approaches.
http://archive.globalgamejam.org/sites/default/files/uploads/2011/9387/The%20End%20Game.png?1296396579
Stupid WP formatting, here’s the link again, http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2017/03/05/oil-glut-its-the-demand-stupid/
At this price, virtually nobody extracting oil makes a profit. A few folks like the Saudis still have Legacy fields they can extract oil at a profit at $20/bbl, but across the whole of Saudi ARAMCO their costs are a good deal higher than that. Here in Amerika, the Frackers may have got their extraction costs down to $60/bbl in some of their better fields, but they’re still not making a profit at $50/bbl. Just not bleeding money quite so fast,and if they are TBTF, then Wall Street keeps rolling over their loans to keep them floating another day. This is better in the short term than having to write down $Billions$ in losses, which then would make the bank itself insolvent.
+++++
Note: ‘may’
Hmmm….
http://www.artberman.com/wp-content/uploads/Chart_World-Con-Uncon-1.jpg
The Saudi’s have “social security” overhead of around $80 a barrel.
This rent to keep their constituents satisfied totally levels their playing field with the worst of the fracking crowd. $20 a barrel is a myth.
It would be higher now …
Council on Foreign Relations: Saudi Arabia’s Break-Even on Oil is Approaching $120 per barrel (November 2015)
http://www.cfr.org/oil/fiscal-breakeven-oil-prices-uses-abuses-opportunities-improvement/p37275?cid=ex-cgs-oil_breakeven_discussion-levi_use-113015
http://i.cfr.org/content/Breakeven_figure_Saudi_Arabia.jpg
Fast Eddy said:
More disinformaiton from Fast Eddy.
It’s people like you that make me almost want the collapse to come …. I know it is like cutting off my nose…. but there will be something gratifying to know that ignorant idiots are cowering in the dark in fear — starving — and wondering what went wrong …. and muttering ‘but the shale was supposed to save us… the shale was supposed to save us’
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
The large runup in oil stockpiles might have been caused by factors far more benign than what the Doomsters assume:
Err, why are they importing oil into the US, if consumer demand is falling? Would it be because they need to store more of this unsellable shit?
The US Motorist Is Unwell: Miles Driven Suffer Biggest Slowdown In Over 2 Years
“…when trying to forecast the price of oil, it is becoming increasingly clear that the answer is not on the supply side at all but rather on the demand, where as we have been writing for the past month, things are getting quite troubling. While we urge readers to familiarize themselves with our recent coverage of collapsing gasoline demand to a level which according to a perplexed Goldman Sachs suggests the US economy should be in a recession…”
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/02/08/gasoline%20demand%20GS.png
Two points of comment.
Not all oil is alike. Just like all food is not alike. Refineries are built to refine a certain grade of crude. The input supply quality range is tight. Just like humans don’t digest raw bamboo nor grass, animal species have a limited range of food that is usuable. For example, a lot of the USA refineries can’t use the oil from Canada. So we import oil of the quality we need and try to find buyers for the heavier stuff that our refiners can’t process. Unless you are dyung to see lots of new refineries in your neighborhood the situation will not change.
Comment rwo: Gasoline is only one byproduct of refining. If we all burned diesel, gasoline would be wasted. We are encouraged to drive gas burners so bunker fuel and diesel, etc can all be sold in the best ratios. In that regard Dieselgate probably helped the trucking industry.
The world runs on diesel.
Tight oil doesn’t fill this need.
Light, and with a API of greater the 45, for the most part.
More fact-free nonsense from the Fast Eddy crowd.
The diesel contnet of Eagle Ford and Bakken oil is almost identical to that of Brent and WTI.
https://s7.postimg.org/huhldaf0r/Captura_de_pantalla_718.png
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
edinlloyd,
You are absolutely right about the U.S. having almost no refining capacity to process light sweed crude oil.
https://s12.postimg.org/v847nu25p/php_X18_IHLAM.jpg
Of course all these subtleties fall through the cracks for those who are searching for signs of apoaclypse now.
Great pictorial, looks like USA is a heavy sour leader and partially paid for by foreign countries! So we have 26 percent of the total world refinery capacity, no wonder we want to export refined products.
It looks like ExxonMobil has committed to spend the money to update its refineries in order to be able to process the Light Sweet Crude that the shales produce, and in order to take advantage of the rock-bottom natural gas prices.
Exxon is joining the retirement party…
Here’s the way it works:
Fed: we are out of cheap to extract oil — so we are F*&^ed
Exxon: yep we are F*&^%ed too — have you seen this https://srsroccoreport.com/end-of-the-u-s-major-oil-industry-era-big-trouble-at-exxonmobil/
Fed: yep you guys are F*&^%ed – how about we loan you as ,many hundreds of billions and you dont pay it back – and you use that to stay afloat to continue pumping from your established wells
Exxon – yep – that sounds good — would you like our CEO to take a key position in the new admin to ensure all of this is seamless?
Fed: yep sure — we’ll tell our errand boy Donald to handle this
Fed: meanwhile we need to get oil onto the market — we’ve got this shitty stuff called shale that I know you guys were burned on with XTO — but hey since we are all F((*&ed — how about we shovel a few hundred billion more your way and you get that oil out of the ground….
Exxon: sure — since our level of F(*&ed is absolute — since we are already insolvent and should be declaring bankruptcy — it’s like being pregnant — you can’t be half pregnant…. so why not — here’s our account — we’ll start buying up these shitty plays and we’ll get that oil onto the market so we can buy a few more months.
Fed: all good fellas. See ya’ll in New Zealand. I hear Fast Eddy is throwin one hell of a party at the top of the south island Ya’ll gonna be there?
Exxon: wouldn’t miss it for the world.
Joel: 20%, not 26%.
It never ceases to amaze me the comments I get when speaking about peak oil. Take this for example I posted on another website some info and this is what I get back.
Jerry –
The idea of “Peak Oil” is a fear tactic. There were not possibly enough dead dinosaurs to create the ‘fossil fuel’ amounting to what has already been pumped. Oil is an abiotic resource, regenerated by the collision of Earth’s mantle rotating around the molten core mass. It is a re-created commodity, proven so by many ‘dry’ wells which have refilled with crude over the past few decades – especially in Oklahoma and Texas. IMO, we are more likely to suffer from a shortage of clean water.
Now I’ve heard this argument before about abiotic oil and on this website very little gets mentioned or argued concerning it. Does anyone FE perhaps have something to reply? Any Russians about? I know they believe hardcore that oil gets regenerated this way in the earths core.
“Dead dinosaurs?”. Tells you all you need to know about this kook. The abiotic oil theory as it pertains to Earth, since hydrocarbons do exist elsewhere in space, has been debunked many times. Besides, even if wells did happen to magically “refill”, it is in quantities so minute, as to be considered inconsequential.
I would just ignore people like this, there is no way you will be able to change his mind. And even if you did, then what? It’s not as if any of us are getting off the boat…
Yep-
Carp fishing on valium.
A hundred trillion metric tons (give or take a decimal point) of molten carbon has just been discovered in a huge lake 217 miles beneath the western United States. All we have to do is pump up what we need and keep burning it until we run out of oxygen and suffocate….
On the other hand, given the enormous practical difficulties of reaching this carbon, raising it to ground level and keeping it from solidifying and blocking the channel on the way up, a pipeline to Uranus to harvest its copious reserves of methane may be less ambitious.
It is obvious a worm hole to Uranus is the solution.
Abiotic oil is nonsense.
Even if it did exist, all that makes a difference is how much we can extract cheaply, at a time. Abiotic oil would not make a difference.
I believe in the oil fairy.
At the end of the day Baghdad Glenn can live in his alternate universe, he’s allowed to do that, however he WON’T be able to live in this alternate universe when this “sucker (IC) goes down”. He will go down like the rest of us….
This chart shows “multiple compression” is coming.
How long can this surge in stocks go on? That’s what everyone wants to know. Projections range from “forever” – these projections have become increasingly common – to “it’s already finished.” That’s a fairly wide range.
Everyone has their own reasons for their boundless optimism or their doom-and-gloom outlooks. But there are some factors – boundless optimists should push them aside assiduously – that, from a historical point of view, would trigger tsunami sirens. Because in the end, it’s not different this time. And the cycle of “multiple expansion” and “multiple compression” is one of those factors.
For example, a stock trades at a price that gives it a P/E ratio of 20 (stock price is 20 times earnings per share). When earnings per share remain flat over time, but the stock price rises, then the P/E ratio (the multiple) expands. When this spreads across the market, even when aggregate earnings remain flat, it means “rally.”
And earnings have been flat since 2011! The other day, I posted a chart that showed that earnings of the S&P 500 companies in Q4 2016 were back where they’d been in Q4 2011. So five years of earnings stagnation. Yet, during those five years, the S&P 500 index soared 87% [read… S&P 500 Earnings Stuck at 2011 Levels, Stocks up 87% Since].
The thing that changed during those five years was the P/E ratio. This combination of flat earnings and soaring stock prices, and thus soaring P/E ratios, is, historically speaking, not a good thing when it drags on for too long. This chart shows the S&P 500 P/E ratios on every January 1 of the year. This aggregate P/E ratio has nearly doubled from 14.9 on January 1, 2012, to 26.7 on March 3, 2017:
http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/US-SP500-pe-ratios-2012-2017.png
More http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/04/pe-multiple-expansion-at-record-multiple-compression-coming/
It’s different this time.
We all know that.
It will continue forever upward.
57 months and counting!!! Somebody call the Guinness World Records people.
CBs are trapped — they cannot let the market correct – at least not significantly…. in the past the markets crashed and found a bottom…
But now because the economy is completely fake — as in without stimulus every company on the planet would disintegrate…. they cannot allow the markets to correct — because a correction would mean no markets.
http://faith-happens.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Meltdown-Secret-History-of-Global-Financial-Collapse.png
There are basically three basic options from now on:
– sacrifice stocks so bonds live another day (the usual method – seems too late today)
– sacrifice both stocks and bonds to live another day at negotiating table where the global is parceled up in unfavorable fashion to the western legacy status quo
– it all chaotically disintegrates / it all disintegrates plus full nuclear war
Glenn — I’ve run out of new comments to respond to and its not even 10am here…
Post something that is wrong …. or at least something silly …. just type the first thing that comes into your mind – like you usually do… make something up — entertain the Fast man!
10 – 9 — 8 — 7…. hurry up ….
Loving every minute!
The video is worth watching …. ‘everything is stable’ vs ‘jets of steam – gamma rays — rusting metal 40 years to clean-up’
Yep… everything is stable — if one were to consider stable as being perched on the edge of the cliff for years….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-04/robots-sent-fukushima-just-keep-dying
I’d not worry about it.
In the final our, when gloves go off, the MIRVs will be sent flying anyway, and if I count it somewhat correctly, there are in global aggregate low thousands of these warheads only in the dedicated 2nd strike “mop up” mode. Now, there will be some decoys, some fails, some even not ready in the dock etc., so lets say few hundred successes guaranteed at the minimum. Now, most of it will be cross targeted by all these major powers against each other, so anything near any core infrastructure will be zipped. That leaves some breathing space for true wilderness, but unless you are sort of hard core musher type, already placed there and experienced to squat near polar circle, not much prospects anyway.. But as the models show most likely the upper atmosphere layers gets punctuated in the North, so that’s a bummer and one of the primary reasons why fat cats are attempting to bolt down in NZ where the direct and indirect genetics mutations from radiation should occur less or with delayed effect..
Would it make sense for the next financial crash to follow the trajectory of the 2008 crash, only this time it would continue until it had hit 0?
If so, we could expect total collapse from the beginning of the crash to the end lasting less than a year
http://www.infomine.com/ChartsAndData/GraphEngine.ashx?z=f&gf=110671..&dr=max
http://m.haynesboone.com/~/media/files/energy_bankruptcy_reports/2017/2017_midstream_report_20170220.ashx
http://m.haynesboone.com/~/media/files/energy_bankruptcy_reports/2017/2017_ofs_bankruptcy_tracker_20170220.ashx
http://m.haynesboone.com/~/media/files/energy_bankruptcy_reports/2017/2017_oil_patch_monitor_20170220.ashx
Globalization and internet made us more vulnerable. Let us take Fukushima as an example. It was commissioned in 1971.
At the present moment, it is leaching out a lot of radiation and the structure may collapse anytime. If an earthquake strike again, it is going to cause massive radiation leak. We are just one small event away from “extinction level event”. Just a collapse of the entire structure and it is possible and it can happen anytime. This coming 11th March (6 more days), it will be the 6th anniversary. With exposed concrete rebar, steel, radiation and the weather (rain, snow, sun, etc) it is just a matter of time before the whole structure collapse.
Let us do two scenarios. when it collapse.
1. In 1981 if this thing happened. No internet and no one knows. Even those in Tokyo may not know if the government does not announce it. Life goes on as usual and economy is doing well, people are ignorant of many things. Radiation sickness happened and the government just assigned them to “unknown causes” and the statistics were not published. Newspaper, TV and mass media did not publish anything. Tokyo will be under controlled even if people start dropping dead due to radiation. It is only when it gets very serious, then maybe the government may evacuate. If the newspapers in Singapore or USA did no cover this story, nobody knows about it. It may cause massive numbers of cancer across the world in the next 10 years and by then earth’s life form is basically screwed.
2. In 2017, there is a webcam doing 24/7 monitoring of Fukushima and it is broadcast live over YouTube. If there is an explosion, within an instant, practically anyone connected to the internet will know. It is not possible for the government to hide it. Within hours, when radiation hits Tokyo, the local residents with their own Geiger counters will start to register the increase in radiation counts and the readings will be posted on the internet for everyone to see. If it is serious, then maybe the richer residents of Tokyo will leave by plane. The airport will be jammed pack with those leaving. Some of the senior managers (well to know but no rich) or those with children may leave by train to other parts of Japan. Although Japanese are disciplined people, at this time, human nature kicks in and it may not be that orderly. The next day, the Tokyo Stock Exchange will collapse (that is if it is opened). Why collapse because the entire Tokyo will be gone. The factories, the suppliers, the manufacturers will not be opened for business as the airport will be packed with people leaving the country. If critical infrastructure like telecommunication, electricity, air traffic control, police, army has gaps (due to missing personnel, insufficient resources or equipment), then all hell will break lose. Once the power goes out (i.e. the power plant engineer might choose to leave Tokyo with his pregnant wife), then all bets are off.
Economically, if Tokyo goes down (critical hub as per Korowicz), then all other hubs will be in jeopardy. Flights from Asia to USA may not function as they need to get past Tokyo. Osaka, Korea and other airports may or may not be able to take up the slack at the last minute. With businesses / headquarters closed in Tokyo, the factories in Vietnam, Slovakia and Indonesia are directionless and the critical parts (like the electronic components of the car) may not arrive. The supply chain is then broken. Finance-wise, the Yen is dead and loans, derivatives, deposits, carry-trade, etc will just stop and counterparty risks will be very critical as margin calls will happen. When that happens, London, New York, Frankfurt will collapse. Within days, the entire financial system will collapse and you will not be able to pay your staff/employees. So, what happened when the ATMs are not functioning ?
The other critical issue is leveraging in the financial world. In this rigged casino of derivatives. I may have a CDS (like insurance protection) for a USD10m bond that I have purchased but because I am greedy, I bought a USD100m CDS. If something happens to the bonds, I get paid USD100m. I am levering up 10x and if it goes from company A to B to C and so on and so far, it will be just a few minutes before someone asks me for the protection that I have written for someone else. It is this daisy chain that will cause instant detonation. The authorities can try to bend or break the rules but there will be a point where that is not possible anymore.
You think it is far-fetched? Before you refute this scenario, give it a hard thought and let it sink through critical thinking. Be truthful to yourself when you ask a question – are you doing it just for the fun of poking at other people or are you seriously unsure about it. I know a lot of people just write whatever comes to mind and that does not go through the brain. They are probably paid trolls and I have no interest in replying to their questions.
Excellent scenario, with even more feedback loops probable.
CTG, I agree with the point you are trying to make but I suspect that even in 1981 the news of such a major incident would have trickled out somehow. The radiation would probably have been detected and traced, just as it was post-Chernobyl by the Swedes in 1986:
http://m.europarl.europa.eu/EPMobile/en/news/product.htm?reference=20140514STO47018
I suspect that with nuclear accidents — unless they are obvious — as in the top blowing off Fukushima —- they get covered up.
We have not the slightest idea how much radiation is being leaked into the ocean from Fukushima.
For the most part the public is unaware that Japan is sitting on a giant ticking time bomb — that would explode if another large quake hit that area of the country and toppled already damaged ful ponds.
When there is nothing you can do about it then I suppose why bother to alarm the public.
These issues should have been considered before the decision was made to build the first nuclear plant… it is too late now
Harry, in the 1980s, at the peak of the Cold War, the West would like to demonize USSR. However, if it is their ally like Japan, they will probably hush hush. All they need to do is to dismantle all the radiation sensors and no one will know. The explosion at the NPP after the tsunami, no problem, that has been fixed. Folks, nothing to worry about, just go on with your daily tasks….
The radiation seems to be leaking into the ocean – not airborn. I’m not sure if a collapse of the structure would lead to a massive airborn event. More research would be helpful. Otherwise, the scenario is valid.
I am no expert on Fukushima but a quick Google says that, although the amount of airborne radiation is in dispute, it is nothing approaching Chernobyl levels. But I do recall that a number of US sailors and marines fell ill, apparently from radiation poisoning, whilst assisting Japan with the immediate aftermath of the tsunami and obviously that is all a very public and international affair:
https://www.navytimes.com/articles/sick-us-sailors-and-marines-who-blame-radiation-get-support-from-japans-ex-leader
Mind you, you could argue that a cover-up-minded Japanese government in 1981 would not accept such help… So, perhaps CTG’s scenario really is possible.
What is the main difference between the two accidents?
At Chernobyl, explosions destroyed a reactor, releasing a cloud of radiation that contaminated large areas of Europe. At Fukushima, which was damaged by an earthquake, the reactors still have mostly intact containment vessels surrounding their nuclear cores. Japanese officials point out that at Chernobyl, the reactor itself exploded while still active.
At Fukushima, the magnitude nine earthquake and tsunami crippled the plant’s cooling system, leading to a partial meltdown of the reactor. Earlier attempts to cool the reactor by hosing water from fire engines and helicopters left pools of contaminated water and flooded basements, hampering the containment operation and efforts to restart the cooling pumps.
To make room for more highly radioactive liquid, the plant’s operator, Tokyo Electric pumped tonnes of contaminated water into the Pacific but stopped after the move was criticised by South Korea.
Tokyo Electric appears to be no closer to restoring cooling systems at the reactors, critical to lowering the temperature of overheated nuclear fuel rods.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/apr/12/japan-fukushima-chernobyl-crisis-comparison
Insight: After disaster, the deadliest part of Japan’s nuclear clean-up
“The No. 4 unit was not operating at the time of the accident, so its fuel had been moved to the pool from the reactor, and if you calculate the amount of cesium 137 in the pool, the amount is equivalent to 14,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs,” said Hiroaki Koide, assistant professor at Kyoto University Research Reactor Institute.
Spent fuel rods also contain plutonium, one of the most toxic substances in the universe, that gets formed during the later stages of a reactor core’s operation.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-fukushima-insight-idUSBRE97D00M20130814
This article is from 2013 — this clean-up has still not been completed…. it would appear that they prefer to let sleeping dogs lie and hope that another earthquake does not hit.
4000 ponds globally x 14,000 Hiroshima bombs = 56,000,000
I actually do not make this shit up…..
Kurt, when the whole structure collapse, they cannot pump in water to cool whatever is inside. It will then get very hot and it will be airborne.
The problem is if the spent fuel gets too close, they will produce a fission reaction and explode with a force much larger than any fission bomb given the total amount of fuel on the site.
All the fuel in all the reactors and all the storage pools at this site (1760 tons of Uranium per slide #4) would be consumed in such a mega-explosion.
In comparison, Fat Man and Little Boy weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki contained less than a hundred pounds each of fissile material
See more at: http://www.dcbureau.org/20110314781/natural-resources-news-service/fission-criticality-in-cooling-ponds-threaten-explosion-at-fukushima.html
CTG your scenario is very plausible and shows how the whole system can come down quickly. You have clearly made the case many times how BAU-Lite is IMPOSSIBLE, but I guess it must comfort some people that it is possible, thus don’t want to think it through completely and figure out how impossible it is…it’s BAU or NADA!!! (And IMHO, NADA is coming before 2020)…..I savour each and every day BAU is in place!!!
Now this I can believe. Fukushima might be the biggest contender to topple BAU for the time being. You need something that scares people. Nuclear disasters would qualify, quadrillions in debt or democratic elections do not.
I doubt whether institutional holders care very much about the profitability of their shale plays, as the whole operation was designed to buy time. That time is running out, hence Jim Mattis’ return trip to Iraq. They’ve given everyone paying attention fair warning.
Likewise with bonds — why would anyone buy a bond at – interest rates — they are not looking to make money by holding — they are betting on rates drifting further…
Look at the S&P — earnings flat for 6 years — market up 87% ….. yet money still pours in….
Why? Because there is recognition that the central banks cannot let the market correct — if earnings are flat then that implies a correction would have to wipe out that 87% gain …
Actually it would mean the entire market would be wiped out — because there is no growth — no growth = death.
Market players can also see that the CBs are loaning massive amounts of money to these no growth bums to allow them to avoid death. They cannot stop — without causing death.
As you point the same goes with shale — and conventional oil.
The big, smart money does not ‘fight the Fed’ — because they realize that there is no winning — the Fed (CBs) will not stop what they are doing — ever — because they cannot.
Yes they will fail — and anyone who is ‘fighting them’ will get about a milisecond to say ‘see I was right — I beat the Fed! — now book my spots on CNBs and Bloomberg!’ — before the world comes crashing down around them.
I really should get some cash back into an index fund….
Paying workers less and lowering labor costs before World War I was what drove the greatest advances in history.
But, like what I said before, Chuck Fitzclarence and his 200 Worcester men (which he did not lead) completely messed up the world in 1914.
After the Great War, there were millions of ex-military men, which the elites had to be afraid of. That’s why a lot of concessions to the lower class were made. The elites, not thinking about the consequences, also armed thousands of colonials, who demanded more power as well.
So, untold amount of resources were wasted to make the lives of the working class and the Third World better,with no corresponding return.
Now, the situation has changed decisively in favor of the elites. No more need to raise huge armies means there is no need to treat workers well when everything can be automated cheaply.
Making the people poor and elites rich is the way to develop civilization, increase tech and preserve the remaining fossil fuel. Since most of the world’s wealth is held by the top few percent, the rest’s poverty and destitution do not really matter.
This 2016 Credit Suisse Wealth Databook is the only book which needs to be read to understand the world.
http://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/index.cfm?fileid=AD6F2B43-B17B-345E-E20A1A254A3E24A5
Nice posts ctg but the system is more resilient than you think. 7.5 billion people around the world producing and consuming enormous amounts of products. It’s not ending overnight. What you have lived through the past years, prepare to face the same thing for decades into the future.
Even when the system starts crashing, you aren’t going to know it. You will be lied to, the numbers are so big, they can make up anything they want.
I concur. Although I don’t think decades is the right timeframe. I still think summer of 2020 for some type of major event that forces the adoption of a new financial model.
for a time i used to think like you DOLPH but i realized that it was only wishful thinking that BAU could continue without cheap oil inputs at best we may have under a decade left but the reality is collapse could happen this year or next and i’m afraid they really are clueless and completely ignorant of the real situation’s cause and inevitable conclusion. I have made my peace and am ready for whatever comes
‘And until that time comes, what is sufficient?
Why, to venerate the Gods and bless them, and to do good to men, and to practise tolerance and self-restraint; and as to everything beyond…..remember that this is neither yours nor within your power.’
Emperor Marcus Aurelius on making peace with it all.
Cursing your luck to be living now?
‘Fortunate means that a man has assigned to himself a good fortune: and a good fortune is good disposition of the Soul, good emotions, and good actions.’
Yes. Those in the major countries won’t feel the pain. The dying will be done in places they will never see. Wake me up when celebrities begin to go hungry.
The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 was thought to be a minor event at that time: just a little localised war and everything would settle down comfortably.
Inter-connectedness made it a catastrophe.
Throughout the 19th century it was argued that the advent of a world economy made war irrational and therefore impossible. All nations would have to be friendly, or destroy one another -and who would wish to do that?
This ignored the fact that the new industrialising world economy made the prize of victory ever more valuable and the stakes higher than ever before – true world dominion became possible and desirable.
You win! Delusional comment of the week goes to Dolph!
(Glenn has been disqualified because he is too good — he is like Tiger Woods was … or Michael Jordan or Wayne Gretzky .. or Pele ….we can’t have the same person winning every week….)
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/2/8/14549380/donald-trump-strong-dollar why donald trump hasn’t got a clue what to do and neither do his advisors
Donald and Shale OIl will Make America Great Again.
Just ask Glenn.
http://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/33ed395532b460b7a6805539a47d23c1.jpg
Fast Eddy,
Well one thing about it, you and Matthew Iglesias, the author of the column adonis links, have one big thing in common, as Sean Davis explains:
Does Matthew Yglesias Ever Tire Of Being Embarrassingly Wrong About Everything?
http://thefederalist.com/2014/05/30/does-matthew-yglesias-ever-tire-of-being-embarrassingly-wrong-about-everything/
Matthew Yglesias is very smart. How do we know? Because he works for Vox, and Vox hires only the “smartest thinkers” and asks only the “toughest questions.” Seriously, that’s their motto.
Thankfully, I have a pretty tough question for one of the web start-up’s smartest thinkers: What does it feel like to be so consistently wrong about so many things?
I’m not trying to be mean. I actually want to know. I want to know how one person can so consistently say so many dumb things about so many topics with so few consequences.
What I want to know Glenn… is why when I completely destroy your positions … you just pretend that it didn’t happen…. you just ignore the fact that you have been made a fool of — over and over and over again.
You appear to be the only one on this site who does not realize that you are a fool.
Everyone else is laughing at you. Every time you fail to respond the level of ridicule rises. ‘There goes Glenn again – making a fool of himself — look at Fast Eddy wiping the floor with him — hee haw this is sure good free entertainment!’
Have you no humility?
If I were in your shoes — I would recognize that I was out of my depth — that I really know jack shit — and I’d either stop blurting out whatever thought comes into my head and posting it on FW and instead sit back and learn — or I would just realize that I don’t have an IQ high enough to understand these discussions — and I would go back to watching the NFL and American Idol.
Fast Eddy said:
“Completely destroy” my positions?
What, with your nonsensical, fact-free, logic-free rants and ad hominem attacks?
Delusions of grandeur, anyone?
The ups and downs of owning a remote Scottish island
An island in Shetland (or elsewhere) may give you privacy and a fabulous view, but there are also drawbacks
It is the seals: two large family groups live on and around the island. We know them and they know us (I think!): when we go for walks, they swim along the coast beside us. It’s the possibility of self-sufficiency. Wind turbines and the huge advances in solar mean that it is now possible to be fully self-sufficient in power (we aren’t by the way — there isn’t a house at all on Vementry); there is always enough mackerel, crab and mussels to keep the wolf from the door and it really doesn’t take that long to figure out how to cook with seaweed.
And it is the sense of distance from the rest of the world. America’s tech billionaires have been busily buying up estates in New Zealand to escape the coming social revolution/cyber war/environmental meltdown. Scottish island owners get the same sort of thing but, for most, in a more accessible way: you can get to Aberdeen or Inverness a lot faster from both New York and London than you can to New Zealand’s South Island. Sounds idyllic doesn’t it? Bet you want one too now; everyone who has rented our house (on the Shetland “mainland” looking out over the island) has started googling “buy your own Scottish island” as soon as they hit the free WiFi at Sumburgh airport.
OK, let’s talk about the downside. The weather is a huge upside, but it’s not always perfect. Sure it isn’t ever awful if you have the right clothes, but everyone who has ever spent much time on a Scottish island will have a story of the time it rained for two weeks and nothing ever got dry again.
https://www.ft.com/content/ae49a38a-f8f8-11e6-bd4e-68d53499ed71
We do not need big houses anymore…
https://p6design.net/a-family-in-belarus-lives-in-a-very-small-and-tiny-awesome-house/#.WLuu-G81_X4
We do – otherwise all the retailers that fill the big houses go out of business — many house builders go out of business etc… deflationary death spiral
We need BIGGER houses – not smaller houses
“Triage without knowing it.”
In Sweden, since a few years you can build up to 25m2 without permit, otherwise just the permit fee costs in excess of this house.
Red Button anybody?
https://youtu.be/jTm3Jbr6ePQ
infighting and elites biting each other? Wow just take a gander at what is happening to Europe. Peak oil is scary enough add to that the hordes filling Europe and if we aren’t in some serious trouble
https://www.darkmoon.me/2017/the-migrant-invasion-of-europe-get-ready-for-riots-and-the-abolition-of-the-white-race/
There is a lot of in-fighting now and things are getting from bad to worse. It looks like the elites are biting each other now. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-04/trump-asks-if-its-legal-obama-wiretap-him-heres-answer
If you look at the entire history of mankind, you can make an inference that this is the terminal phase of an empire and an outside force may just come in and take over the incumbent empire. From the South Americans to the Middle East and Chinese history, there are many examples. However, I do believe (personally) that this time round, there will be no handing over the baton from a weak to another strong city/state/nation/empire.
Resource is limited and getting scarce, we are way deep into the overshoot territory, we have severely damaged our habitats, we are so interconnected and so deeply into debt (so that we can kick the can down the road) that we have no other city/states/nation to take over the leadership. China? Russia? They are probably just in the same trouble as any other country. Everybody is trying to put up a brave face and see what happens next. It does feel to me at the present moment that what is happening in the world is like “we get to live another day”. A new day a new happening, a new news (fake or otherwise), a new scandal, a new disaster waiting to happen. At times, you just feel lucky to wake up and see that you are still alive. We are being “attacked” from all fronts – Japan, Fukushima, potential earthquakes, volcanoes, political crisis in USA, Europe, financial issues in every part of the world, etc. Anyone of them will bring down the house of cards. These are the symptoms of resource exhaustion and the parallels with collapsed civilizations is uncanny.
FE, there are people blessed (or cursed if you like) with the ability to see the overall picture. I have met up with people who cannot comprehend what is going on. It is just like asking someone to visualize in your mind a 3D drawing that you see on paper. Some has the capability to visualize it completely and can even rotate and explode it to see the details. Some are totally hopeless. So, I am not sure if Glenn is really the one who cannot visualize the whole thing or he is just trying to troll you.
For those who are “awake”, I am sure nobody convince you about our predicament. You find if out yourself like I do. Why? because those who surrounds you do not see it, so, how can they help to convince you (on our predicament). Am I correct to say (to all of you who read this blog and who are “aware”) that you felt something was wrong, you did more research and suddenly, you have the Eureka moment. You search the internet and eventually you will come to Gail’s OFW.
Those who are “aware” are staying far from each other. We are from all over the globe and we can come to the conclusion independently. We do not have the chance to meet up and at times, I do feel that I am being put here just to make a report to “some entity” on why humans failed or why this human experiment is a disaster. I just feel like I am absorbing a lot of information, whether I like it or not, I just “want to know” many things/events/situation surrounding me. I am really like living in a surreal world and with a double identity. I view people like Glenn with fascination.
An interesting analogy for our entire predicament. Picture a bathtub full of water and one small paper boat at the other end of the tub. The plug was pulled and the water goes down slowly. There are some who felt something was wrong and the boat was moving to one side. They are very few and were always deemed as lunatics. Over time, the boat moved a little faster as the water gets lower. More people felt something was wrong and many of them felt “it was not a big deal” and must be my imagination. The paper boat gets faster and faster and more and more people soon become aware. As it circles the drain (Coriolis effect), the boat is very fast and suddenly, it “plops” and everything is gone. I do feel that we are just about to go “plop”. Everyone knows that there is no “market” anymore. CBs are printing, buying and manipulating, people are angry over inflation and stagnating wages. Political issues are coming to fore and now, it is only the minority who will say “everything is awesome”. There will still be many who “cannot see” the big picture but still felt something is wrong.
Again, like the English saying – the straw that broke the camel’s back. You can continue to pile and pile and until at one time, just a single straw will break the camel’s back. Like a marriage counsellor taking to estranged couple – why do you want to divorce – “oh he always left the pepper shaker on the table”. Is that simple reason the main reason why she divorced him? No! but over the years and over the issues, that was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
As always great post CTG….
Am I correct to say (to all of you who read this blog and who are “aware”) that you felt something was wrong, you did more research and suddenly, you have the Eureka moment. You search the internet and eventually you will come to Gail’s OFW.
Yes.
I felt something was wrong around 2002 or o3…. I felt that the boat was moving towards the drain.. ever so slightly…. I recall reading that the Bush admin could absolutely not allow a second recession – this is not the specific article … but it was of this nature — the alarm bells started to faintly ring….
The housing madness really got the bells ringing — but I did not understand the why… that came later.
JUNE 13, 2003 – There is increasing evidence that massive economic stimulus — monetary, courtesy of the Federal Reserve, and fiscal, thanks to the president and supply-side minded lawmakers — is taking hold. The magnitude of the policy turnaround, which caps a constructive, multi-year reflation process, should overwhelm the economic negatives — including the drag from expensive oil and poor finances at the state- and local-government levels.
Expensive oil and its impact on other energy costs remains a concern.
The current level of U.S. monetary stimulus is massive. Real interest rates have fallen 5.2 percent from December 2000 to March 2003, reaching -1.2 percent. A swing of this magnitude may be historical.
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/207227/reversal-fortune-david-malpass
You are correct in assuming that many people feel something is profoundly wrong — they do not know the why — and they probably never will — but they are nervous — scared even.
CTG,
I’m used to first finding the rabbits hole, and then finding out how deep the rabbits hole actually goes. And once I’ve done this, for myself, thinking for myself, finding evidence for myself, then.. I know
I don’t understand how Eddy doesn’t grow weary of all these people trying to negotiate themselves an long-lived existance and continued prosperity. To me the continued negotiations, without facts, or any evidence to support it, is just.. hmm.. what was that word.. delusional.. yes that was it.. delusional
Unfortunately that very same trait makes me think that SHTF will be even worse than we here fear. The things people will do to each other and themselves.. shocking.. If people who are given the most valuable information known to man.. in the history of mankind.. just react to that information.. well, other peoples opinions are more imprtant than actual facts.. shale will save us.. we are slaves to the words people use.. the things these people are capable of.. in the near term future where all bets are off.. I wouldn’t want to be near one of these guys in SHTF
Hello,
Thank you Gail, thank you CTG, thank you Norman, Thank you FE and those I forget.
Every morning I come from France to join your community. Even if it requires a translation effort, I need your information, we do not have that quality of information.
Keep telling the truth.
Comme dit CTG: ceux qui sont «au courant» sont hébergés loin de l’autre. Nous sommes de partout dans le monde et nous pouvons arriver à la conclusion de façon indépendante. Nous ne disposons pas la chance de se rencontrer et parfois, je ne me sens que je suis étant mis ici juste pour faire un rapport à “une entité” pourquoi les humains ont échoué ou pourquoi cette expérience humaine est une catastrophe.
Bonjour Dom, nous ne sommes pas beaucoup en effet, d’où l’importance d’un site comme celui de Gail où nous pouvons nous retrouver….c’est très isolant ce sujet dans cette société où personne ne voit le train qui est près de nous foncer dedans à 200 milles à l’heure, nous emportant tous sans excéption…
This coming 15th March is a key date where there are 3 key events – the debt ceiling debacle, the rate hike decision and also the Dutch election. Individually and separately, they seem harmless but getting all three of them together on one day? I am not sure. It is just like taking a high-dose valium, 60% proof alcohol and combined a very tired body. Individually, they are not a problem but when you mix all three, do we have an issue? I don’t know.
Many people are screaming that everything will end on 15th March. If nothing happens, skeptics will say that “see I told you all will be fine”. We can keep on doing this until it does not. I have been on a watch out for these key events (which adds burdens to the camel) for a long time since 2014. The Swiss referendum on gold/curreny in November 2014, The Japanese CB decision making, the Greece debt fiasco, Grexit, Brexit, Italian referendum, Ukraine referendum in Netherlands, Trump, etc.
Since H22014 until today, it is barely 2.5 years but so many critical events / defining moments happened in those 2.5 years than the 2.5 years from any historical records. If you push back a little further from 2007-2017, the 10-year period is also so full of defining events as compared to other historical events. Again, if you take 1913-2013 (creation of Fed Reserve), there are so many defining events happening in that 100 years as compared to all other periods in history – say from 1800-1900. Yes, there will be many people out there refuting what I say. However, just do a simple research and listing down what is defining (i.e. introduction of Fed Reserve caused USD to devalue more than 95% over the last 100 years – that is defining).
So, in the longer timeline, what does it mean, it just means that TSHTF moment – the exact moment is not important. The effectiveness of doing things is less and less. The drugs are wearing off and heavy doses are required. So many events happened in the first 7 weeks of Trump presidency that it is probably more events than any other presidents in the history of USA. Why? Pushing on a string is getting harder and harder.
The main purpose I am writing this out is to tell what is in my mind and it is not meant for convincing others. Those who are in the same “boat” as I am knows what I am talking and I have no need to convince others. At times, being alone in the sea of loneliness, it is good to release what is in one’s mind.
When suppression takes place, the resulting outcome is always “beyond anybody’s expectation”. See 1988 Yellowstone fire. Yellowstone was barren for years after fire suppression allowed unchecked undergrowth and the undergrowth fueled the massive fire. Humans are animals with short term views, their actions do not take into consideration what will happen in future. This is damn right……Cavemen, have a feast now for tomorrow morning, you may be eaten by a tiger. So, why bother about tomorrow? Enjoy today !
dear CTG i too had a close look at march the 15th will it be the straw that broke the camel’s back i recommend the following actions for all finite worlders on march 15th we all sit down with a couple of our favorite drinks and watch it all unfold yes you are not alone CTG
These are minor events and of no importance. You won’t see the major events coming. They will just happen.
This is exactly what I expect from people who are not “aware”. It may or may not be. I just don’t know. Read up the bank run on 1929. One person went to the bank and told the teller that he had no confidence in the bank and would like to withdraw all the money. The teller and then the manager tried to calm him down and suggested that he should not do that as the bank was healthy. The guy standing next to him overheard what transpired and he did the same and before long everyone started to do it. Soon, it was the whole nation as people start talking about it.
Historians tried to find out who the person was and they suspect it was a butcher.
As you can see, it is not a big thing but it caused a big event, which one may say it lead to WW2.
When you have realised how vulnerable the global economy is at this point and what its ultimate failure means, keeping an eye on key potential triggers in this cascading process of collapse becomes horribly fascinating. The Chinese stock market, Trump, Brexit and the Italian referendum et al have had me chewing my proverbial nails. The ides of March do also look rather fraught with risk.
These predictions never work out. A total crash of BAU will not be predicted, you would rather need 3 unexpected, unannounced events happening over a short time-span. News about more debt or more nationalism won’t break the camels back.
And I think you misinterpret many so-called BAU-liters on this site. I believe that even if I/we think we most likely will get a slow decline, everybody is aware of the instacollapse-scenario and acknowledge its possibility and are therefore mentally prepared for that outcome as well. It’s not black or white, you can believe in / discuss several outcomes at the same time.
++++++++++++++++++++
What an excellent comment CTG (as always!!!!)
You said: “Am I correct to say (to all of you who read this blog and who are “aware”) that you felt something was wrong, you did more research and suddenly, you have the Eureka moment. You search the internet and eventually you will come to Gail’s OFW.”
BINGO, that is EXACTLY how it happened to me….it starts off with one little documentary (Collapse with M. Ruppert in 2009) and for me with my curious nature of wanting to know….my fate was sealed 😉
SAVOUR.EVERY.DAY.BAU.IS.HERE, the end is nigh (it sounds religious, but it is definitely not meant as such, it’s just NO BAU = WE ARE ALL DEAD….)
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/04/negative-real-interest-rates-on-nordic-house-price-bubble-100-year-mortgages/
How about the banks offer loans with a a ‘you decide how much to repay and when’
So each month as long as you pay something … (let’s put a 1$ minimum on this shall we) … then you are not in default.
And since the banks get the money at 0 or -0 interest rates — they can still make money if you pay them that dollar (if they use the shale accounting method where you just discount all other opex and claim you are profitable)
I’ve got a mortgage renewing in April — I’ll have to forward this to the Westpac people and ask if they are offering the 100 yr option —- I am all over that MOF……
one can look also at Texas. too much of it is becoming a third world country
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/how-the-lights-went-out-in-a-west-texas-town/
What can I say? I’m loving it. Cheap entertainment – actually it’s free!!! In this corner we have Fast Eddy, the tin foil hat wearing defender of OFW and annihilator of all things Delusistan. And, in the other corner we have Glenn, relentless advocate of shale oil and annihilator of aberrant facts. Who will prevail? Who will come out on top? Who cares?
Do you smell that? Do you smell that?
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
Smells like… victory
Glenn don’t surf. Glenn don’t surf.
There is a sliver of me that actually feels sorry for Glenn…. he’s trying to argue that 1 – 8 = 10.
He is trying very hard…. but when you start off with a fallacy (and you don’t know it) — you are destined for failure and disappointment.
http://c.quoteson.net/2/98033-disappointment-quotes.jpg
Kurt says:
A great many people care, and they care very deeply.
The success or failure of the shale revolution will determine if President Trump can make good on his promise to “make America energy independent.”
It will determine whether Trump has any possiblity at all of re-industrializing the United States.
It will determine whether we can continue to justify the endless resource wars in the Middle East, something that has cost us untold treasure ($6 trillion according to Trump) and untold amounts of blood, not just ours but the many we have killed and destroyed their lives just so we can keep the oil flowing.
You are completely out to lunch in so many ways.
But let’s just address one delusion:
‘Reindustrialize America’
Chinese Workers Making iPhones Work 11-Hour Shifts, 6 Days A Week, For $1.50 Per Hour
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/china-labor-watch-apple-iphone-workers-2013-7?r=US&IR=T
The average assembly worker in Shenzhen now makes 2000 RMB ($328) per month.
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-average-hourly-rate-for-a-factory-worker-in-China
Have you noticed that some businesses are moving operations to places like Vietnam and Cambodia — because China salaries are too high?
Have you noticed that there is a push in China to move to robots – because humans are too expensive?
How much do you think you’d be paying for a t-shirt … or a plastic rubbish can — if they were made by American workers?
And you think Trump would bring these jobs back — because of shale oil?
You do not understand the problem. Trump cannot fix it. Nobody can fix it. We have run out of cheap to produce oil – the global economy needs cheap oil to operate.
Yes yes — we have heard that shale oil is making money at $50 — it isn’t — but let’s assume it is.
Roughly 5 million barrels of shale oil is produced per day – total global production is 81M barrels per day https://ycharts.com/indicators/world_crude_oil_production
That means 76 million of the barrels are losing money at $50.. Surely you have noticed that Oil Majors are collapsing — surely you have noticed that the KSA is going to pieces — what about Venezuela – Alberta — Mexico and on and on and on —- oil producers are dying with prices at $50.
It is to the point where nobody is bothering to look for new oil — can you show me where the shale revolution is on this chart? Where are the new discoveries?
There are none. Nadda.
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/icbkDFACM4iA/v2/800x-1.png
This is the end of the line for oil.
Shale is not going to save the day.
Trump is not going to save the day
So take a walk with this delusional nonsense. You are wasting everyone’s time with your hopium-based rubbish
Actually, I think our problem may be just as much that we have run out of cheap-to-produce coal. The fact that coal production is falling is a huge problem. It is no longer economic. A lot of natural gas is not economic. A lot of oil is not economic. Even if shale were abundant and close to free, it would not save the day. We have many applications that use many different energy products. We also have applications that use a whole portfolio of other products. If any of them is lacking, we have a problem. We can gradually change our mix a bit one way or another, but that is about all.
If there ends up being sufficient shale oil that can be extracted at a cost of $30 to $70 a barrel, so that that becomes the marginal barrel of oil, that’s going to mean that a lot of the investments that were made in high-cost oil will end up being big money losers. These projects required $100+ barrel oil to make them profitable.
It also means that all the sunk investment in these projects, as well as all the money that was borrowed to complete them, will have to be written down.
The countries that need the income from $100+ dollar oil from their oil exports in order to meet their fiscal responsibilities will also be in big-time trouble.
http://i1.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article5868702.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/PAY-Brandon-Swann.jpg
https://uncertaincreativity.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/mp900422468.jpg
http://cdn1.viewpoints.com/pro-product-photos/000/409/066/300/Tylenol-Extra-Strength-Pain-Reliever–Fever-Reducer_-Capletsa685d1a19.jpg
I hope you feel better soon Glenn. Do come back when the swelling goes down.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/02/08/bofa%20hikes_0.jpg
B of A says a H2 hike is going to crash the economy.
They are very rarely dealing with reality.
And more positive news:
Germany, Greece, Poland, other EU nations, and the United Kingdom have either committed to extending the life of existing coal plants or are planning to build new ones.
Europe is increasingly choosing to keep the lights on with coal. A stark reversal of EU nation’s previous position.
http://blog.heartland.org/2017/02/europe-chooses-energy-reality-over-climate-hype/
Now, now Eddie, not so… erhhh… fast! Denmark’s biggest energy producer will not be producing electricity by burning coal by 2023!
http://www.dongenergy.com/da/presse/nyhedsrum/nyheder/articles/dong-energy-to-stop-all-use-of-coal-by-2023
Instead they will be using biomass!
I’m not really sure where all the biomass will be coming from, but who cares, right? For all I know, they might have a guy named Glenn bring it in with his van on a daily basis. Sure, it would take a huge van, but I still think it is doable.
It is the total quantity of energy that is important. We have already been seeing a drop in world coal consumption. I expect that this is what is leading to peak energy, and with it, peak economy. Trying to substitute biomass instead is absurd!
And now for some positive news:
Coal is the dirtiest fuel source for electricity generation. But it’s cheap and Vietnam plans to expand its coal-fired electricity generation capacity at one of the highest rates in the world. In 2016 Vietnam had more than 12 gigawatts of coal-fired power plants under construction (equivalent to about 12 nuclear power reactors).
Another 60 gigawatts of coal-fired power capacity is planned by 2030, compared to its current electricity-generating capacity base of 39 gigawatts.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jillbaker/2017/03/01/vietnam-economy-coal-green/#73a1dcc55977
In other news… Germany industries are threatening to move their operations to Vietnam to take advantage of cheaper electricity costs….
The CEO of ThyssenKrupp Heinrich ‘Humpty Dumpty’ Hiesinger commented on this development stating ‘the More-On Greenies hav made za too many zolar panels and now veee hav to run za coal and za solar and za priz izzz too high for za electrizity … vee move to Vee-tnam if zay don’t fix za problem… ‘
The hidden hand of the Elders…. one of many ways in which they are keeping the oil industry alive…. keep funneling cash to them even though they are already in a sea of red ink…. give them a free hand in booking reserves aka put lipstick on pigs…. instruct their MSM running dogs to publish ‘Second Coming’ spin ……and so on … and on … and on….
The Interior Department informed coal, oil and gas companies this week they do not need to comply with a new federal accounting system that would have compelled them to pay millions of dollars in additional royalties.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/coal-oil-and-gas-companies-to-pay-less-in-royalties-after-interior-decision/2017/02/24/a3164016-fad5-11e6-bf01-d47f8cf9b643_story.html?utm_term=.26223a3d8193
See FRED graph of worker compensation as a percentage of GDP:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=cRZz
As much as economists would prefer to ignore it, the purchasing power of workers is the fuel that drives all democratic economic systems. Another way of viewing this is to consider it a measure of the extractive–integrative economic continuum described in extensive historical detail in the book “Why Nations Fail” by Doran Acemoglu and James Robinson.
Workers do not care about inequality, they care about their family purchasing power and how it relates to providing housing, food, healthcare and a college education for their children. Today’s compensation represents a redistribution upwards of between $1,000 and $2,000 per month for every full-time worker in the U.S. compared to 1948-1972. The forces which continue to increasingly depress workers’ share include automation, globalization, breaching of natural limits and the reformation of monopolies. Any solution should harness the best features of Capitalism to motivate workers, executives and owners. An enlightened oligarch should understand by this point that their high return on investment is not sustainable. The evidence is two-fold — our current administration (including the “deconstruction of the administrative state) and the imminent economic downturn indicated by this graph. Far better to have a sustainable half a loaf than the crumbs of collapse. That is why I recommend a federal cap on a corporation’s profit to wage ratio based upon their W2 and earnings history. Any excess earnings above the cap would be fined 100%. Let’s take a look at the motivations. An executive committee foresees an overrun of $1 million which the government will take if they do nothing. However, given a earnings to wage cap of 0.25, they would increase payroll by $800,000 and give $200,000 to the owners. They would then apply that payroll increase in the areas that would provide the biggest payback for the company. Employees would receive wage increases, job security or a new job thereby increasing their self esteem. Finally if employees work to increase corporate profits, they will share in 80 cents on every dollar. All of this is highly motivating and builds employee-employer unity to profit and grow.
I very much agree that federal wages are what drives all economic system. Behind those growing wages are a combination of a growing supply of “tools” to leverage human labor. These tools are made and operated using energy, so generally energy per capita must rise. Debt must rise, to finance the building of all of these tools.
Without this leveraging impact, it is hard to get very much growth at all.
Business profits have been flat for the last several years, in large part because of low commodity prices. Low wages drive these low commodity prices.
One musn’t forget about Narco dollars. It drives the economic system and terribly so.
http://solari.com/old-articles/scoop_narco_dummies.htm
“Why Nations Fail” – this is an excellent book
Dr. The world’s greatest advancement occurred when workers were paid a pittance and most of the wealth was held by those in the top before the Great War.
It is better to get everything accumulated to the top so the amount could be reinvested, instead of these amounts used for ‘living expenses’.
Hi, I was chatting with someone about peak oil and they talked about Brilliant Light Inc. They reckon that they can make energy from water by converting hydrogen atoms into a structure they call a hydrino. It would mean essentially free energy. Some serious people from the energy sector are investing in it ready for the commercial launch.
Does anyone know anything about the feasibility of this project?
Like the provebial ‘refrigerator stare’, you don’t see what you’re not looking for. It is my expectation the after the collapse the professional econimists will suddenly see the invisible hand (now withered) that has been at work all this time. They will also be surprised to see that it’s attached to the arm of this finite world. Theories and calculations will then be forthcoming
I woke up this morning and holy cow — I shit a 4 ounce gold nugget!
Fast Eddy, there are more traditional places to store one’s gold and without the frequent need of recycling.
“They reckon that they can make energy from water by converting hydrogen atoms into a structure they call a hydrino. It would mean essentially free energy.”
Beware of the snake oil salespeople exploiting a dire energy situation by offering up easy solutions, beckoning would be salivating investors, then when the jig is up, skedaddle to the tropics to sip pina colada’s at night and rent ski jets during the day. Remember your physics, there is no free energy as it would take energy to break the water into it’s components. The net energy result would likely be negative.
I expect to have more gold nuggets on a daily basis — but I prefer to hedge… just in case the goose dies…. maybe those guys ‘investing’ into that scheme would like to purchase my future production?
The bottom line would seem to be that the scientific establishment would have to be wrong about quantum physics that particles are not subject to the same laws as all other bodies. That is allegedly possible, given the struggle of particle hunters over the last decade.
Oil seems a safer bet, all else is likely to go when that does.
That sounds amazing! How can I get in on this? I made a ton of money on cold fusion way back when, and this sounds like the next big thing.
Leaner, Fitter, Faster: US Shale 2.0 Challenges OPEC Again
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?hpf=1&a_id=148723&utm_source=DailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2017-03-03&utm_content=&utm_campaign=feature_4
Meanwhile, the quasi-religious fanatics on Peak Oil Barrel are still desperately clinging to their obsolete peak oil NOW theology, peering through the rearview mirror, as if nothing in the shale industry has changed since 2010 to 2015. (Can we say Fast Eddy?)
The Peak OIl Barrel analysis assumes the average shale well completed between 2012 and 2016 an EUR of 219,000 boe.
However, shale wells completed in the sweeter spots of the Permian since 2015 using Fracking 2.0 will exceed 219,000 boe in the first year of production alone, with wells still producing almost 400 BOEPD after the first 12 months of production.
And now Permian producers are experimenting with Fracking 3.0, with early signs that this newer technology will enhance well performance even more.
Doctrine and dogma, the endless repetition of catechisms, that’s what seems to dominate human “reason.” Daniel Yankelovich hit the head squarley on the head when in Coming to Public Judgment he wrote:
Look on the bright side Glenn.
Trump is Turning EPA into Fossil Fuel Vending Machine.
And if all those numbers still stay red, I just don’t know what to tell you.
Well at least Trump and Clinton aren’t eat up with the dumbass the way Bernie Sanders is, and realize that modern capitalist, consumerist economies need abundant energy to continue to function.
Gail adds an second requirement, arguing that the energy must be both abundant and cheap.
Yep, Bernie should stick to what he does best—frying chickens. 😉
Peak oil has to do with affordability and price. If the US dollar is high, the price of oil tends to fall. Raising the interest rate is a way to raise the level of the dollar, and make the price fall.
The Peak Oil Barrel folks might be right (for the wrong reason), if the current round of interest rate increases has the same adverse impact as prior increases in interest rates have had.
I talk about the role of the previous round of Fed increases in my article, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis.
Gail,
I agree. But the folks at Peak Oil Barreil become quite hostile to any suggestion that peak oil might occur for that reason.
If peak oil happens NOW, it will because we enter a global recession, more than likely because of the bursting of the most massive debt bubble ever known to humankind.
https://s1.postimg.org/cz3fbn6ov/Captura_de_pantalla_42.png
https://s27.postimg.org/qg6mftalf/Captura_de_pantalla_1343.png
If that happens, oil demand will of course plummet, just like it did in the 1980s when Paul Volcker caused a global recession with his insane monetary tightening.
https://s28.postimg.org/qt30p006l/Captura_de_pantalla_229.png
And with so much demand destruction, the Saudis couldn’t cut supply sufficiently to maintian the oil price, and when they stopped cutting oil supplies as a result oil prices cratered.
https://s15.postimg.org/czt54qsor/Captura_de_pantalla_701.png
Oh no, now you’ve done it. FE incoming in 5…4…3…2…1.
Truth generally bounces off people like water off a duck’s back. Or they shake it off, like a dog.
I find this odd, as I always feel a strange kind of exaltation when even an unpleasant or uncomfortable truth has been stated – a kind of mental liberation.
I have even seen a nationalist fanatic scornfully throw away a map – entirely accurate, but with some displeasing historical borders from the point of view of their ideology, marked on it.
Objective truth abolished, just like that! A map! Now of course maps can lie, but this was not one of those.
‘Why do you believe in the Gods?’ ‘Well, I’ve long since lost any belief in Mankind…..’
Glenn – why don’t you quote Daniel Yergin — he’s the go to guy with all the awards who when looking to add credibility to the lies and disinformation that is shale…
Yes yes yes — shale is now cheaper to produce than conventional oil …. sure it is Glenn. Why wouldn’t it be?
If so then why is the entire industry essentially insolvent?
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
For several years, the U.S. Shale Revolution seemed like it was going to defy the laws of gravity (and finance) to provide the country with limitless oil production forever. However, something started to go seriously wrong as these shale oil companies reported their financial earnings. One by one, these oil companies financial losses and debts continued to pile up.
https://srsroccoreport.com/continental-resources-example-of-what-is-horribly-wrong-with-the-u-s-shale-oil-industry/
Fast Eddy,
How many times are you going to keep posting that defactualized nonsense from SRSrocco?
It’s become your catechism.
Do you really believe that by repeating the distortions and partial truths ad nauseaum that that’s somehow goiing to make them come true?
It won’t stop Glenn ….
Until you acknowledge the facts are the facts — shale is sea of red ink propped up by MSM hype, more-ons who believe it and the invisible hand of the Fed.
For several years, the U.S. Shale Revolution seemed like it was going to defy the laws of gravity (and finance) to provide the country with limitless oil production forever. However, something started to go seriously wrong as these shale oil companies reported their financial earnings. One by one, these oil companies financial losses and debts continued to pile up.
https://srsroccoreport.com/continental-resources-example-of-what-is-horribly-wrong-with-the-u-s-shale-oil-industry/
Chesapeake loses $4.8 billion in 2016
At the end of February, Chesapeake Energy announced it posted a net loss of $4.8 billion during 2016. The loss resulted from lower commodity prices, lower production values and a decrease in the value of the company’s oil and gas assets. Average daily production for the fourth quarter was around 574,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, including 108,00 coming from the Utica shale play. http://businessjournaldaily.com/chesapeake-reports-net-loss-of-4-8-billion-in-2016/
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
Chesapeake loses $4.8 billion in 2016
At the end of February, Chesapeake Energy announced it posted a net loss of $4.8 billion during 2016. The loss resulted from lower commodity prices, lower production values and a decrease in the value of the company’s oil and gas assets. Average daily production for the fourth quarter was around 574,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, including 108,00 coming from the Utica shale play.
http://businessjournaldaily.com/chesapeake-reports-net-loss-of-4-8-billion-in-2016/
This is fascinating…. on one hand we have oil prices over $50 …. apparently new shale technologies have slashed the costs of extracting shale to much lower than conventional…
And yet this major players loses nearly $5 billion dollars!
So of a bitch — that is impressive stuff!!!
And I see: ‘Chesapeake to pay new CEO a $22M package’ Wow! So if he loses 10 billion in 2017 does he get 44M?
I know nothing about running an oil business — but seeing as this is a fake oil business — and that losing money is the benchmark for success….
https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cb160051fbd14860dbccb60b6f78c8d5.png
I guarantee that if I am hired as the CEO I can drive those loses to 20 billion by the end of 2017 — and the share price will at least double.
If anyone at Chesapeake is listening here is my strategy:
– buy more shale plays and make up for the losses on each barrel by increasing the total number of barrels that we pump out of the ground
– I will deploy the Swiss Cheese strategy — in order to get as many barrels out of the ground by the end of the year I will triple the number of rigs in play — we’ll get it so those plays are more crowded than a whorehouse offering free trial runs….
– I will purchase a company yacht and a bigger better company jet
– I will increase the CEO expense account to ‘unlimited’
– I will ring up the Fed and let them know we will need 500 billion to buy back shares
– I will bring Don Draper out of retirement and get him to take the hype and spin to new levels — we’ll be paying him the big bucks to outdo the ‘Saudi America’ tag line….. he will be tasked with turning a circle into a square … with convincing the cattle that 1- 7 = +10
http://quotivee.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/don-draper.jpeg
I am waiting by the phone for the call…. I look forward to this new challenge — I am beyond confident that I can meet the loss targets and make contribute to making Chesapeake a market leader and that I can drive shareholder value.
It is Red as far as anyone can see.
The majors are going into debt to pay dividends, and the independents can’t stop drilling, or the debt game is up.
They had better get the G5 before the ponzi crashes, and the rubes catch on.
http://leanmobileapps.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/red_main_1627909a.jpg
Shale was feeding us a stream of lies in 2009 — and it is feeding us a stream of lies now.
It is an industry based 100% on lies —- right up there with solar and Tesla.
Different only in that at least the lies keep the oil flowing — and BAU alive a little longer
You know you are being fed lies when….
Bloomberg: ‘The second coming of shale could be even more powerful than the first’
Damn — looks like Don Draper has already been hired by a competitor…. I am impressed…. Saudi America was bloody good…
But ‘Second Coming’ — that is sheer genius….
The evidence provided in this article showing the continued financial disintegration at these top three oil companies suggests that the U.S. energy sector is in serious trouble.
We must remember, the top oil companies are supposed to be the most profitable.
However, if we take a look at what is taking place in the top shale oil and gas producers, the situation is even more dire.
I have republished this chart from a previous article showing that the shale oil and gas industry hasn’t really made a profit since 2009:
While some of the companies made free cash flow profits in various years, as an industry, these oil and gas producers have been in the RED since the U.S. Shale Energy Industry really took off in 2009.
So, the notion that rising oil production from increased drilling rig activity is going to change the SEA OF RED taking place in the entire U.S. energy sector, suggests individuals or the market has gone completely insane.
https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Large-Cap-Energy-EP-Operating-Cash-Flow-Table-2015.png
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-12/blood-bath-continues-us-major-oil-industry-0
Fast Eddy,
Well once again you put your ignorance of the oil and gas business, which borders on the colossal, on display for the whole world to see.
As I have tried to explain before, Chesapeak is predominately a natural gas producer, not an oil producer.
For instance, in 2015 only 17% of Chesapeak’s boe was from oil production (6 MCF of natural gas = 1 BOE). The remainder was from natural gas and NGLs.
https://s9.postimg.org/3pev4f27j/Captura_de_pantalla_704.png
This is not rocket science. The reason that Chesapeake’s bottom line is suffering, and those of predominatley oil producing companies not so much, is because the price of natural gas remains in the basement, only a fraction of what it was in 2000. Even with the aid of Fracking 2.0, the low price burden is just too much to overcome for the natural gas producers.
https://s2.postimg.org/qdsaqkp61/Captura_de_pantalla_705.png
The thing is….
The biggest oil producers are also the biggest gas producers…. so that pretty much defeats your argument explaining why Chesapeake is such a piece of shit…. all these plays are pieces of shit.
What are the largest shale-focused companies?
EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) has quickly become one of the nation’s leading oil producers thanks to its prime positions in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian formations. In fact, according to the Railroad Commission of Texas (which, by a quirk of political history, regulates natural resources and the environment), EOG Resources was the state’s largest oil producer in 2015, averaging 255,101 barrels of oil per day — 9.3% of Texas’ output. EOG Resources also ranked as Texas’ fifth-largest gas producer, accounting for 3.8% of the gas extracted.
Shale-focused peer Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) ranked as Texas’ second-largest oil producer in 2015, pulling 148,688 barrels per day from the Eagle Ford and Permian formations — 5.4% of Texas’ production. It was also the second-largest natural gas producer in the state, accounting for 8.8% of gas output.
ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) subsidiary XTO Energy was Texas’ largest natural gas producer last year, accounting for 10% of production. It also ranks as the nation’s largest natural gas producer, thanks to its prime position in not only Texas’ shale plays but also the Marcellus and Utica formations. That said, according to the Pittsburgh Business Times, XTO was only the eighth-largest producer in Pennsylvania’s sections of the Marcellus/Utica plays in 2015. Instead, the paper reported, the top producer in the Keystone State’s shale gas plays was EQT (NYSE:EQT). Meanwhile, Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) was the top producer in Ohio, where it has been a leader in developing the Utica shale.
Let’s see if EOG and Devon make The List —– aha — there they are — two of the biggest shale oil producers are on The Red Sea List.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
Alas Exxon is about to right this disaster by diving into the shale patch https://srsroccoreport.com/end-of-the-u-s-major-oil-industry-era-big-trouble-at-exxonmobil/
Fast Eddy,
Well once agian, what you cite are just more partial truths, carefully selected of course, tin order to distort reality.
You have this uncanny ability to cherry pick those companies that bolster your case, while omitting those that do not. The tactics you use to disinform actually has a name. It is called “lying by omission.”
And your chant repeated ad nauseaum about “a sea of red ink” is meaningless. In every horse race there is, after all, only one winner, and a sea of losers.
If we go take a look at Devon’s and EOG’s 2016 Annual Reports, which detail their investment portfolios, what we find is that they are both heavily weighted to natural gas production, and that their holdings in the Permian Basin are almost nil. Previously, there was a great deal of competition and one-upmanship between EOG and Pioneer as to whether the Eagle Ford or the Permian was the better basin. EOG bet heavily on the Eagle Ford. It lost.
Here’s what it looks like. These companies have almost nothing to do with what is going on in the Permian Basin.
https://s1.postimg.org/5bi6g2o8f/Captura_de_pantalla_712.png
https://s9.postimg.org/3qi20j7zz/Captura_de_pantalla_713.png
All the big players are bleeding out Glenn…. I am cherry picking nothing.
I showed you two of the biggest shale OIL players — they are on this list:
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
Feel free to make up bogus excuses. The numbers do not lie.
Fast Eddy,
Wrong again.
All the big players are not “bleeding out.”
Only those whose portfolios are heavily weighted in high-cost conventional, deep water, Canadian oil sands, tertiary recovery, natural gas, and the less prolific shale basins are “bleeding out.”
Those who are operating almost exclusively in the Perman Basin, like Pioneer Natural Resources, Concho Resources and Diamondback Energy, are doing just fine.
I could just as easily make a chart showing the financial results of shale companies who operate almost exclusively in the Permian Basin, with actual fiancial results for 2015 and 2016 instead of predictions made back in 2015 as SRRocco does, and it would paint an entirely different picture than SRRocco’s cherry picked (and outdated) data does.
Heck, even Continental Resources, an exclusive shale player who operates predominately in what is undoubtely the least prolific of the shale basins, the Williston (or Bakken), was in the black last year.
https://s28.postimg.org/6i2nvfsod/Captura_de_pantalla_714.png
OKLAHOMA CITY, May 4, 2016 /PRNewswire/ — Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CLR) (the “Company”) today reported a net loss of $198.3 million, or $0.54 per diluted share, for the quarter ended March 31, 2016. Adjusted net loss for first quarter 2016 was $150.5 million, or $0.41 per diluted share.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/continental-resources-reports-first-quarter-2016-results-300263030.html
OKLAHOMA CITY, Aug. 3, 2016 /PRNewswire/ — Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CLR) (the “Company”) today reported a net loss of $119.4 million, or $0.32 per diluted share, for the quarter ended June 30, 2016.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/continental-resources-reports-second-quarter-2016-results-300308764.html
Continental Resources Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results
Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CLR) (the “Company”) today reported a net loss of $109.6 million, or $0.30 per diluted share, for the quarter ended September 30, 2016.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/continental-resources-reports-third-quarter-2016-results-300356204.html
For full-year 2016, the Company reported a net loss of $399.7 million, or $1.08 per diluted share.
http://www.crossroadstoday.com/story/34577721/continental-resources-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2016-results
Fast Eddy,
That’s right. i should have said:
That Continental was in the black the last quarter makes perfect sense, considering what the price of oil did last year.
https://s23.postimg.org/593r0hesr/Captura_de_pantalla_715.png
Quarterly results can be massaged to create hype as in ‘yes we lost hundreds of millions BUT we made money in the 4th quarter — things are looking up — just wait till next year! (suckers)’
What matters is the number — at the bottom – at the end — of the year.
‘For full-year 2016, the Company reported a net loss of $399.7 million.’
‘For full-year 2016, the Company reported a net loss of $399.7 million.’
‘For full-year 2016, the Company reported a net loss of $399.7 million.’
‘For full-year 2016, the Company reported a net loss of $399.7 million.’
(just like the loss the year before – and the year before — and the year before — and just like the loss we are going to see again at the end of 207.
In your world that is apparently – SUCCESS!
Now I don’t want you to say you don’t remember this beating — let’s make it memorable:
http://www.themainmtl.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/klein1.png
I’ve paid my dues
Time after time.
I’ve done my sentence
But committed no crime.
And bad mistakes ‒
I’ve made a few.
I’ve had my share of sand kicked in my face
But I’ve come through.
(And I need just go on and on, and on, and on)
I am the champion, Glenn,
And I’ll keep on fighting ’til the end.
I am the champion
I am the champion
No time for Glenn
‘Cause I am the champion of the world.
I’ve taken my bows
And my curtain calls.
You brought me fame and fortune, and everything that goes with it.
I thank you all.
But it’s been no bed of roses,
No pleasure cruise.
I consider it a challenge before the whole human race,
And I ain’t gonna lose.
(And I need just go on and on, and on, and on)
I am the champion, Glenn,
And I’ll keep on fighting ’til the end.
I am the champion
I am the champion
No time for Glenn
‘Cause I am the champion of the world.
I am the champion, Glenn,
And I’ll keep on fighting ’til the end.
I am the champion
I am the champion
No time for Glenn
‘Cause I am the champion of the world.
Fast Eddy,
So you do not believe that a company being able to sell the product it produces at a price 71% higher at the end of the year than it did at the first of the year translates into more cash flow and greater profits?
You believe that Continental Resources’ positive earnings for the fourth quarter are a result of the fact hat “Quarterly results can be massaged to create hype,” and not the 71% higher oil prices?
Lordy, Lordy! Who can argue with “logic” like that?
It’s like you guys are arguing about how many pieces of the Titanic hit the bottom of the ocean.
The economy died a long time ago. The only game in town is redistribution–to the Dominant Class–until Collapse. Just enjoy the kabuki.
https://oilprice.com/images/tinymce/2016/Hamilton0809A.png
I could see them losing money in a single quarter — if we assumed they have a 40 buck break even…. not 3 quarters.
What happened in 2015? Surely that should have been a reasonable year for them — oh right — the new ‘technology’ was not available
How companies massage their profits to beat market forecasts
http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2015/12/investing
I have been involved in running businesses for 20+ years….. I know how to put lip stick on a pig if I want the last quarter to look good…. it is not rocket science.
Here’s the thing Glenn – as has been explained to you — shale does not matter — even if shale could make money at $10 it does not matter.
There is not enough of it to make a difference. We burn over 90m barrels of oil per day — shale produces less than 5.
What part of that do you not understand?
Oh look – another chart! An upside down sea of red….
Bust In The US Shale Patch—–$36 Billion Of Negative Free Cash Flow In The Bakken
The Death of the Great Bakken Oil Field has begun and very few Americans understand the significance. Just a few years ago, the U.S. Energy Industry and Mainstream media were gloating that the United States was on its way to “Energy Independence.”
The Great Bakken Oil Field is now down a stunning 25% from its peak in just a little more than a year and half ago:
https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Bakken-Field-Oil-Production-Sept-2016.png
https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Bakken-Cumulative-Negative-Free-Cash-Flow-Likvern.png
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/bust-in-the-us-shale-patch-36-billion-of-negative-free-cash-flow-in-the-bakken/
None of these plays has ever made sense — ever. They were created and sold based on a lie.
And as we can see with the Bakken – the lie is completely exposed now…. as it will be with the other plays.
Shale is a retirement party Glenn —- conventional oil is done — and we are sticking a billion pins into the shale plays in a desperate attempt to keep the party going…. the music is playing … the world is dancing …. for now…
We are down to tipping the dregs of the wine bottles into dirty glasses…
The hard core partiers are hunting through the empty beer bottles for ones that have a mouthful of stale warm beer in them… along with cigarette butts and back wash ….and downing them to keep the buzz going….
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/icbkDFACM4iA/v2/800x-1.png
This will make sense when the above comment is released:
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/e1/57/90/e15790ccfe7a77d0824d2d404ca7bc58.jpg
But we need a higher price, if the world is to do enough investment to maintain adequate investment in many parts of the world, to keep production up.
Rising Permian production isn’t necessarily helpful.
The sweet spot for the oil price seems to also be tied tightly to the net energy available after not only the raw oil itself is brought to the surface, but also what is left over in real wealth to invest in the future. If the net energy available were growing then debt would decline and the P/E ratio of stocks would come down to historical norms (as in 20th century history). The cost of oil production is not the only cost that affects all this. The other raw materials of industrial society’s needs are also in the mix.
We can’t seem to reach a economic agreement among oil and the rest of the economy.
The “Invisible Fist” is failing us.
‘Leaner, Fitter, Faster’
‘Second Coming’
‘Shale Revolution 2.0’
https://notesfromachair.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/tumblr_mn9avawj7c1s6our6o1_500.gif
I operate off of ‘if it sounds to good to be true — and the MSM is telling you it is so good it must be true (Second Coming…) …
And the charts show oceans of red ink — then —- I conclude — it’s fake:
For several years, the U.S. Shale Revolution seemed like it was going to defy the laws of gravity (and finance) to provide the country with limitless oil production forever. However, something started to go seriously wrong as these shale oil companies reported their financial earnings. One by one, these oil companies financial losses and debts continued to pile up.
https://srsroccoreport.com/continental-resources-example-of-what-is-horribly-wrong-with-the-u-s-shale-oil-industry/
Chesapeake loses $4.8 billion in 2016
At the end of February, Chesapeake Energy announced it posted a net loss of $4.8 billion during 2016. The loss resulted from lower commodity prices, lower production values and a decrease in the value of the company’s oil and gas assets. Average daily production for the fourth quarter was around 574,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, including 108,00 coming from the Utica shale play. http://businessjournaldaily.com/chesapeake-reports-net-loss-of-4-8-billion-in-2016/
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
Net income (loss) attributable to owners of Pioneer Corporation latest quarter:
(4.1%) Thats a loss.
And Pioneer is the best of the best at Wolfcamp B.
The best of the Permian.
Facts don’t matter to Glenn….
As Gail pointed out … this is all moot:
80% of the world’s oil has peaked, and the resulting oil crunch will flatten the economy
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9wSgViWVAfzUEgzMlBfR3UxNDg/view
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/icbkDFACM4iA/v2/800x-1.png
Shale is not profitable — but then a lot of companies are not profitable — we keep them alive because we have no choice….
We keep shale alive because we have a huge hole to fill in conventional reserves…
We keep shale alive because it the least dirty shirt in a filthy laundry basket of unconventional oil…
We keep shale alive because ‘The Second Coming’ gives people like Glenn hope.
And no matter how many facts we throw at Glenn — he needs hope or he crashes into despair — he will never get it.
Whether or not shale is profitable, most of the rest of the world’s oil is not profitable, or doesn’t produce the amount of tax revenue that exporting countries need. That is a problem, completely apart from shale.
Shale oil extraction has been and always will be an act of desperation. The vastly increasing rig count betrays the dire situation.
++++++
We know that no significant new oil reserves were found in 2016
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/icbkDFACM4iA/v2/800x-1.png
We know from the HSBC report and other sources – that 80% of the conventional oil fields are in decline.
Every single day those wells are losing steam — just look at the north sea
Collapse in crude brings North Sea fields near end of production
https://www.ft.com/content/1269ec82-c69e-11e5-808f-8231cd71622e
We know that shale plays are drilling like mad to get that oil out of the ground.
What is the trigger?
A financial calamity?
A physical oil calamity — one where there is simply not enough oil available to maintain BAU?
We seem to be able to continue to control the financial side — I doubt you will find a banker on the planet who does not understand that the global economy is completely dependent on the central banks — but so long as the central banks reiterate their willingness to support the house of cards — nobody panics…. rather everyone just continues to dance (even though the sound track is Air Supply)… if anyone does panic they are quickly smashed (look at what happened in China last year — look at what happens when people start piling into gold driving the price up…)
The supply of oil is much more difficult to control — the price can only rise so much without crashing the very fragile global economy…. so there is little room to maneuver…. perhaps the focus is on US shale — because deep sea and tar sands are just far too expensive to be even remotely feasible…. so the central banks do whatever it takes to keep shale alive…
Shale depletes rapidly — with the new technologies depletion rates are accelerate….
John Key stepped down as NZ PM a few months ago — ‘to be with his family’ — I cannot recall a head of state ever doing this …. it is not as if Key was not popular and was looking for a face-saving exit before an election…..
Now why would he do that? What does he know?
I found this from the HSBC report very interesting:
In other words we are able to sustain global production, but the tradeoff is that production decline, even if there were high demand, would be sudden.
The Saudis better get that IPO out of the box asap!
“What does he know?”
He knows what I know. The most likely outcome remains war. One of the generally unstated benefits of a First Strike against Russia’s Nuclear Defenses was that 3-4 billion would have died from crop failure.
World War Three started a long time ago, just no one told the sheep. The war is presently being fought in the financial systems. And that war could trigger the collapse at an time. So this plays into your other point, the market is too vast to be controlled, thus the oil price can’t be inflated to match outstanding debts in that sector.
Aha!! Now you get it! 😉
All you can do is protect yourself. I was hoping we’d get into 2018 but I’m not so sure anymore.
Cathal
http://www.beforethecollapse.com/about
Be sure to wear sunscreen…. the sun is hard on the skin.
Glenn. Here is a suggestion. Go read Steve from Virginia’s latest blog on Denialism. Then come back and let us know what you think. Right? Wrong?
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/03/oil-majors-move-deeper-into-shale-country-bumping-up-us-production.html
According to this article Exxon can make money even at $40 bucks a barrel!
So how does Exxon’s claim to $40 a barrel oil and the evolutionary development of morality find common ground?
Each one of us lives as individuals within a group setting. We may think of ourselves as identifying with a particular group that is bigger than those with whom we work, get food, and live next to daily. These physical, as opposed to virtual or theoretical, relationships are far more critical to our long term survival. That’s because harm and hunger are physical. (spoiler alert) Societal collapse will include harm and hunger.
If we are only relying on the laws of a nation to enforce/reinforce moral behavior then the importance of the truth or falsity of Exxon’s statement is much greater than if we are relying on the morality of the daily physically present folks we rub shoulders with daily.
If Exxon is wrong, for what ever reason, then the likeliness of collapse for national government/business entities is much greater and the threat of your moral universe collapsing looms larger. These bigger entities rely on a big EROEI to survive.
My personal bias is to really get to know the physically present people in your life. In doing that you are giving your moral barometer much more accurate data than you get from virtual or contrived affinity groups. Be in touch with your harm and hunger zone.
Do not believe everything you read. There are many different levels of costs that can be reported. They need to cover their overhead, pay taxes, and pay dividends to policy holders. How many of those things are covered in the $40 per barrel figure head? The companies that renting drilling rigs have temporarily cut their rates, so that they have some business. These rates will go back up, as soon as drilling demand increases very much. Some of oil company costs are commodity related, such as the price of steel. When its price goes back up, its cost will rise as well.
Commodities tend to rise and fall together in price. This happens because the things we make (cars, homes, factories, roads, schools, computers, electric cars etc.) all take a variety of different kinds of commodities, at the same time. If for some reason these finished goods are affordable (because of higher wages or more cheap debt), then demand for a wide range of commodities will rise at the same time. If the price of oil goes up, it is a good guess that most of the commodities going into making oil production will rise in price too.
It’s not called CNBs for nothing…. the king of fake financial news… I understand that they only hire presenters with cheerleading backgrounds.
On the question of whether facts matter, may I politely suggest that opinions matter more than facts.
A brief review of human history suggests that humans have always operated in a cultural sphere in which what matters is what they believe, and they will act on what they believe. Whether true or not.
Consider: there is little to no truth in Christianity or Islam other than a few psychologically comforting myths, yet they continue to this very day with billions of followers. More people in this world believe that Jesus of Nazareth was literally the Son of God, and that Muhammad literally received God’s final dictation, than believe that the earth’s resources are finite and are being depleted.
Yes most people in the world are delusional and/or stupid — it does not mean facts and logic do not matter.
http://thequotes.in/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Albert-Einstein-Quotes-34.jpg
Good point, Dolph.
dolph,
That’c certainly what a great deal of research by psychologists and neuroscientists is showing:
And then there’s this by the evolutionary biologist David Sloan Wilson:
There’s a big knockdown dragout going on between evolutionary biologists like Sloan Wilson and anti-religous bigots like Richard Dawkins over whether relgion is adaptive or not.
Evolutionary biologists of course have to explain the existence of the ubiquity of religion using evolutionary theory, and Dawkins has to go through some pretty amazing mental gymnastics to come to the conclusion that religion is not adaptive.
https://s18.postimg.org/uhkg645ex/Captura_de_pantalla_721.png
Glenn – it is fun to surf the web and self-diagnose…. isn’t it!
Great quote, Glenn. I almost think illusion is all there is. Some forms of it may be more useful than others. You also had a fine quote by Reinhold Niebuhr that I haven’t tracked down so far. It had something to do with the human need for glory. I know praise is extremely important to me. It’s closely related to glory, which can be a little dangerous.
Being the least technical person you’ll ever encounter, I haven’t followed you long articles about shale, although the idea of blasting underground gives me the horrors. I also appreciate your description of the old oil wells as inefficient and clumsy. I had been thinking they were the best thing from an environmentalist perspective: they are there already–just use them up and try living within that oil budget.
But more to what, as a trained conservator of cultural property, I know more about. I was just thinking tonight about Gail’s call for higher commodity prices and higher oil prices. She perhaps sees that as the only way to keep BAU going and maybe save our skins for some period. But my well-tuned intuition suggests that our economic system is just plain exhausted. Trying to start it up again with higher prices feels like beating a dead horse to get it up and running. Which is where my conservation and restoration experience applies. Illusion again.
If people are more governed by illusion than so called reality, they only need what Nietzsche prescribes: an illusion that’s good enough to get by. In extreme cases you can restore an art work to LOOK fairly decent, although it’s a wreck structurally. Following that line of thought, the system only needs to be patched up to appear normal enough to avert universal panic and craziness. The analogy would be patching something up with the cheapest of means–string, duck tape, wire, chewing gum. If a high and subtle level of artistry is used for this patch job, the result is not only attractive, but potentially mind shifting. Shanty towns using stuff from the dump can be most elegant in the hands of the artist. These days you can spin anything. While we have roads and cars, people will go to great lengths to visit and spend at well presented shanty towns. They will even visit scenes of disaster. Tourism also conforms to an art and conservation background. It’s a form of economic endeavor that is only ancillary to Norm’s rotary motion…
What truth is there in atheism? Is it supposed to make you wise? I know plenty of atheists, and they have their heads up there arse every bit as far as religious people.
And I would argue that people do not often act on what hey believe. How many people know they spend too much, eat poorly, don’t exercise, etc? Yet they continue to do it. How many people have the humility to know they have no clue what they are talking about? Exceedingly few.
” How many people have the humility to know they have no clue what they are talking about? Exceedingly few.”
Realizing that language, the primary tool of our species, has great and inherent malfunction in truthfully mapping reality is rare. Even if if this realization is actualized there is no alternative other than abstinence of speech. While abstinence of speech is a admirable effort it does not change that the thoughts themselves are occurring with the base of the same dysfunctional tool. If one had the capability to delete language capability at the thought level what would be left?
I have no idea what your point is but what would be left is symbolism without words. Another very human way of communicating. I’m not down on language, I think it beautiful and powerful. It is like all powerful things; subject to abuse.
If you could pick the tool up like a hammer, and lay it back down again it would be fine. The problem is you become the hammer. Being a hammer may not be appropriate. but we have no choice. We cant lay it down. Most dont even know they have a hammer in there hand.
Am I “down on language”? You are not “down on language”. Are you down with language? 🙂 As we flow these representations back and forth we are their slaves. Slaves to things that have no substance. Nor does freedom come from understanding we are slaves. The very rare understanding that these relationships are a imaginary creation that may or may not have some degree of validity does not bring freedom. We are fearful creatures. We huddle with others that form the relationships the same way to reassure ourselves. The commonality of our illusion emboldens us to actions that please us.
Without our language our essence would be something we are not now. That thing which we are not is unknown. The fear of that which we are not works against any true exploration of our essence.
I don’t get this ‘slaves’ thing…. it’s been mentioned a few times on FW.
Are we not kings?
We certainly live like kings — we have houses that are warm/cool… that do not leak … we have hundreds of slaves pushing our cars around for us …. washing our clothes… turning the generators to keep the lights on… we fly on planes powered by slaves… food grown by slaves is plentiful….
Sure we have to report to the office for 8 hours a day 5 days a week…. in return for the above.
But even kings of old had to push paper around…. they had responsibilities and pressure… they didn’t generally just sit on their thrones gnawing on bbq chicken wings, quaffing wine and ale and shouting ‘bring me prettier women — these will not do!’
Freedom to choose..
Slaves to words and concepts..
Opinions from other people are more important than physical reality..
Shale oil will save everything, just because it will..
Oh jeez, what a clusterf-ck of a species we are. Pampered and spoilt rotten by cheap FF. Is it possible there are people that are actually this clueless? WTF?
Example. In Scandinavia, up in the north, in the winter, when its -30C, if you go out driving and your car breaks down.. If not prepared, the you will die.. its not a matter of choice.. words and concepts.. or other peoples opinions.. or shale coming to rescue you.. if you are out in -30C walking for hours on end without proper clothes, you die.
I don’t think our species has much of a hope coming out of this bottleneck.. there can’t be any magic thinking even for some of us to survive.. But freedom to choose.. slaves to words.. shale is the saviour.. jeez.. we’re done for
“Example. In Scandinavia, up in the north, in the winter, when its -30C, if you go out driving and your car breaks down.. If not prepared, the you will die.. its not a matter of choice.. words and concepts.. or other peoples opinions.. or shale coming to rescue you.. if you are out in -30C walking for hours on end without proper clothes, you die.”
Just for the record I have lived and worked In Prudhoe bay Alaska. Lots of people live in extreme weather. You living a extreme weather climate does not make you sane or an authority on the world although portraying that was part of the groupings of words you chose.
Not a matter of choice? How about the choice to leave shelter? How about the choice not to have adequate protective insulating clothing? The mind determines our actions. our actions determine our fate. Duh
In many ways your post epitomizes the problems inherent with language. You associated your argument with death. We all know death is a reality. You arbitrarily associated your argument with death in order to bring its reality to your argument. You made the association so that the obvious untruths of your argument were associated with the reality of death You did this for reasons that please you. a entirely incorrect representation was made based on your wanting to please yourself for some unknown motive.
Your argument disregard the things the mind can effect profoundly. No the mind can not defy gravity or change external temperature. The things that the mind can and does do has profound and real effects on our actions and our actions do have a profound effect on many aspects of the physical world. DUH.
“I don’t think our species has much of a hope coming out of this bottleneck.. there can’t be any magic thinking even for some of us to survive.. But freedom to choose.. slaves to words.. shale is the saviour.. jeez.. we’re done for””
Well if your framework is your done for I can state you most certainly are. In the end we all are.
Examine the ways Olympic athletes develop themselves. It always comes back to their mind. Over and over again to make progress at that level the framework gets in the way for the progress that is needed. the progress comes from that which is not.
Examine the ways top physicists have reached understanding. It always comes back to their mind. Over and over again to make progress at that level the framework gets in the way for the progress that is needed. the progress comes from that which is not.
The mind has a profound effect on the body it inhabits. This is proven fact.
The ability to form a series of relationships that are a representation of reality that is called language is IMO mankind’s greatest attachment. Mankind’s failure to understand the tool is not reality is its greatest failure IMO.
Take two programming languages c and lab view. There are solutions available in labview that are not possible in C. If one believes the structure in which the mind works (language)is what one is they will not end it as that is death. That structure may not allow solutions and if the need for solutions is dire then that clinging to structure may well mean death.
Exponential growth in a finite world is insane. It probably will result in our species extinction. Denying it certainly will result in our species extinction. Denying that their are absolutely no possibilities which will prevent our extinction will certainly result result in our extinction also. Could cro magnum forsee us now?
Belief in the possibility of appropriate actions allows the possibility of appropriate actions.
It is the start of all creative change. That is self evident. If you dont know that I feel sorry for you.
Pinhead,
There are such things as time and resources. Physical realities that persist.
Take your olympic athlete you liked to take as an example. Without time to practice or the resources to do so.. no matter of WILL, WANT, or motivation.. nothing comes of it.
As for the Tsunami that is headed our way..
Well.. for some of us commenters here, its abudantly clear what the survival our species would require. But its not words, your neighbours opinions, concepts, will or motivational speakers, that are needed. What is needed is a very precise skill set, a very broad one at that. Skills that are not in any way common today. And after mastering the skill set, its just incredibly hard work, blood sweat and tears, decade after decade. The ability to just do what is necessary, despite the hurt, pain, setbacks and injuries.
Our third world relatives, who are not as pampered spoilt little children as us, might handle the toil part. But it would be up to us, who have time and resources to do so, to gather all the necessary skills and skill sets. But instead, we have an incredible amount of delusion, negotiating, anger and denial. And magic thinking going on. Not exactly sane responses, when we know the deluge that is soon to follow..
Pinhead the humanist (or Pelagianist) vs. Van Kent the naturalist.
Which theology will win out?
We don’t know, because the future is unknowble.
‘Be mindful of the eloquence which is really empty; and of apparent emptiness which is truly eloquent.’
Plenty of candidates these days -as always-for having that branded on their foreheads……
‘In the beginning the Way was a reality without a name; then it became just a name without a reality.’
https://s27.postimg.org/b9ob411r7/Captura_de_pantalla_718.png
That’s why you should not believe what you read in the MSM about shale…. you are being played… like a dumb human/rat…. you are being run around the maze in search of cheese.
Join The Core. We can help you overcome
There is a huge amount of pattern to the way everything is made, and in terms of the way the universe evolves.
The system we live in seems to be a self-organizing, open system.
It is OK to hypothesize that this can happen all on its own. Another hypothesis is might be that there is an external force behind this hypothesis. People will disagree whether his external force might have any interest in humans, and how this might affect what will play out in the future.
“What truth is there in atheism? Is it supposed to make you wise?” Change atheism to “religion” and it makes far more sense. Although imo religion “making you wise” is next to impossible.
Religion operates on zero facts only collective belief. Can’t go around having a secret personal religious belief, it must be divulged, shared and predominately imposed. Children are the victims and the fodder to maintain the belief. Meetings and gatherings reinforce the collective beliefs, a form of confirmation bias.
But the problem with you joe imo, is that you fear atheism, so you deride it at every opportunity. You claim that atheism is a belief, even though it’s the exact opposite. You do this to justify the irrational beliefs of the religion or cult in which you participate, yours of course being Catholicism.
Prices operate in a similar way. It doesn’t make them “wrong,” unless they are distorted by government subsides.
I had the misfortune of being dropped into a Catholic school until grade 8 as the school was the nearest to us… these schools are brainwashing machines with techniques that have been adopted by other cults…
I fortunately was able to escape the cult…
Joe is still drinking kook aid…. some never leave…. I guess they like the idea of the meek inheriting the earth and all that.
The meek get stomped on in this life — and they will inherit nothing.
The computer simulation model is far more intriguing …. and the good thing is — nobody asks you for money — nor do they expect you to come to a church each Sunday and worship a computer programmer — and because you are digital you live forever… assuming the creator has a perpetual energy machine….
bandits101 and Fast Eddy, two more anti-religious bigots.
Why don’t you two go read some more Richard Dawkins and Sam Harris, and let the rest of us alone to live in the reality-based community.
Sorry, sometimes we have commenters who get carried away. You clearly know quite a bit about some aspects of what is happening. I figure I can learn from a wide range of people, even people I don’t 100% agree with.
Glenn … I can see that all the logic and facts are really getting to you now…. they eventually always do ….
The problem is that when your understanding of the issues of the world are fundamentally flawed… you must rely exclusively on defense mechanisms such as cognitive dissonance…. which means you live in a make-belief world — a…. false reality ….
Normally that would be fine — you could live your entire life without experiencing any side-effects… your fake reality would — for all intents and purposes — be real. You could mingle with others who share your fake reality — and that would reinforce your fakeness.
The problem arises when you enter the world of people who have escaped the fake reality. They (we) know exactly where you are coming from – because we were there…. we used all the same mechanisms that you do to maintain your blurred view of the world.
So we know how to trash your delusions… your myths….. in a very … effective manner.
Your mechanisms can protect you for some time…. but eventually …. reality starts to impinge … facts and logic hammer your defenses…. and if you do not break contact with The Core…. there are two —- only two — not three — not one — two potential outcomes:
1. You see that your reality was fake — you take the red pill — you become alive
2. You end up with people like Keith and Pete EV …. who stayed too long … and are now in La-La Land….
Based on that last comment …. if I may speak for The Core…. we believe you are about to choose door number 2…. is that a bad choice? what is bad – what is good? We do not judge.
Can you hear Keith calling? And Pete EV?
Let’s all listen ….
‘Glenn… Glenn…. come to us … join us…. we have saved a spot for you…. come to a place where there is no Fast Eddy… no Core… no facts… no logic… only peace and joy…ignorance and bliss…’
http://i2.cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/150812114127-01-cnnphotos-lahore-mental-hospital-restricted-super-169.jpg
Fast Eddy,
You are cut out of the exact same cloth as the New Atheists.
They believe themselves to be members of a select little club, and that by branding their defactualized nonsense as “science” — or “logic and facts” to use your vernacular — that they have managed to find sure truth. They truly believe that they have managed to overcome the human condition, with all its weaknesses and fallibilities.
The New Atheists then drape their pseudoscientific nonsense in the garments of self-righteous piousness and hubris, and go about unmercifully bashing anyone who dares disagree with them with a hail of name calling and ad hominems.
It’s extremely ugly, and it doesn’t get any more dogmatic and doctrinaire than that.
The thing is….
I have to tolerate fools and delusional people on a constant basis — FW is a haven — a place where fools are few and far between.
In an ideal world — when fools show up — and they refuse to deal in facts and logic — and they pollute FW with rubbish — we could just show them the door and say thanks for coming — but you do not pass the test so we are referring you to Peak Prosperity —– but that is not possible.
So instead I prefer to resort to mocker in the hopes that it drives the fools to the insane asylum.
Think of it this way — if I were to gate crash a rocket science conference and continuously blurted out stuff like ‘what about George Jetson — he had a rocket! — can we all have rockets? And what about warp drive — The Enterprise had that — why can’t we build a star ship like that and seek out new worlds?’
What do you think would happen to me?
https://resources.stuff.co.nz/content/dam/images/1/2/o/9/l/7/image.related.StuffLandscapeSixteenByNine.620×349.13s3vx.png/1438580367467.jpg
http://sj.blacksteel.com/media/images/catevari16.jpg
https://s10.postimg.org/bl2v3mvdl/Captura_de_pantalla_702.png
Glenn you are cracking me up! 🙂
If there was an all-powerful, all-knowing, wise God, would He/She/It allow humans to trash up His/Her/Its beautiful planet and all the other creatures and plants? To what Devine Purpose that? I think the answer is obvious: there is NO all-powerful, all-knowing, wise God. And even if there was, why would He/She/It single out humans to protect/destroy? Why not the brainy dolphins or whales? Humans have evolved opposible thumbs and much later, large brains. Some would argue these two features in combination have led us to our predicament. What we haven’t already killed or subjugated we will take down with us with human-induced rapid climate change. I believe we’re special all right, about as special as a parasite that kills its host.
If I had to guess…. I’d peg Glenn as a member of an Evangelical church… he is clearly a believer that Trump will Make America Great Again …. he has at least 4 hand guns…. an American flag in his front yard…. he spends Sundays watching NFL triple-headers …. he is a big fan of Fox and Friends… I see Texas… or Oklahoma … he can quote the bible verbatim… he believes America is a force for good in the world…. he fears ‘The Terrorists’ …. might have done a stint in the military — but did not actually fight…
Fast Eddy,
Well not quite.
However, I would never mount my moral high horse the way you and Hillary Clinton do and blast Trump supporters as being “a basket of deplorables” and “irredeemable.”
I’d a thousand times prefer to be somebody like the guy pictured here, than someone like you or Hillary Clinton.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsLzD2PWAAM9xD6.jpg
the speech bubble in that picture—if there was one one would say
”look, the earth is only 10000 years old, jesus is returning next year to refil all the oilwells and trump is his prophet”
Glenn – please do not pollute FW with political cheer leading …. we are just so far beyond that childish idiocy…
Yes Trump will make it all better Glenn…. And shale oil will ensure that you continue to enjoy the NFL on the teevee….
bandits101-
“Religion operates on zero facts only collective belief.”
Can you point out a culture that does not operate this way? How about our money system?
As for the rest of your remarks about me you are just wrong. Atheism is like industrial agriculture to my mind. It only became a cultural force with fossil fuels and will die with fossil fuels.
I make a few remarks on atheism now and then because of the the bigotry here.
Actually, our financial system is a self-organized system that works by itself. In fact, our solar system is a self-organized system that operates by itself. In fact, gravity might also be a self-organized system that acts by itself. We don’t understand a lot of things about the financial system.
Religions seem to also be self-organized, and borrow a great deal from each other.
You may be right about atheism being like industrial agriculture. We feel that we can do everything on our own (or our financial leaders can fix all problems). In fact, we cannot. There seems to be some force behinds this self-organized system, but we cannot understand it very well. Should we worship it? Figure out how to go best with its flows? Religion in many respects has to do with how to handle the adversities of this world. If someone else offends us, do we obsess about it endlessly, or do we “forgive them.” If we did not do as well as we could have in a particular situation, do we obsess about it endlessly, or do we move on?
I learned in Lutheran study material that the concept of forgiveness had been developed in some predecessor religion to Christianity, and was “picked up.” The idea of “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you” in some version comes from many different religions. Even the idea of some sort of life after death may be a way of preventing obsessing over how bad things are now. It is, unfortunately, often better to just make the best of the situation and go on.
‘Should we worship it?’
If there is a creator of all of this — one would have to assume that it does not require us to get on our knees and profess our undying love and devotion.
After all – no other animal is required to do this – why only humans?
Ooops….
Atheism (derived from the Ancient Greek ἄθεος atheos meaning “without gods; godless; secular; denying or disdaining the gods, especially officially sanctioned gods”[1]) is the absence or rejection of the belief that deities exist.
The English term was used at least as early as the sixteenth century and atheistic ideas and their influence have a longer history. As a doctrine, atheism emerged in India in the sixth century BCE.
Over the centuries, atheists have supported their lack of belief in gods through a variety of avenues, including scientific, philosophical, and ideological notions.
Philosophical atheist thought began to appear in Europe and Asia in the sixth or fifth century BCE. Will Durant, in his The Story of Civilization, explained that certain pygmy tribes found in Africa were observed to have no identifiable cults or rites. There were no totems, no deities, and no spirits.
Their dead were buried without special ceremonies or accompanying items and received no further attention. They even appeared to lack simple superstitions, according to travelers’ reports.[citation needed] The Vedas of Ceylon[clarification needed] admitted only the possibility that deities might exist but went no further. Neither prayers nor sacrifices were suggested in any way by the tribes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_atheism
democracy has been the collective product of fossil fuel input
atheism, to whatever degree has always been kept under wraps, and has nothing to do with current religions.
the reason being that whatever the state religion was, it was tied in with fascist/extremist doctrine in which the preists were usually an essential component.
therefore if you espouses athesism it would cost you your life.
when our current democratic/commerce system collapses, we will return to theofascism.
And for as long as that holds together, atheism will again recieve extreme punishments
I believe in Santa Claus – and the Tooth Fairy.
I don’t think you do – therefore you are an atheist.
Do you believe that you are superior to me in any way? Intellectually perhaps?
Keep in mind Santa gives me stuff – and the tooth fairy gave me cash when I was a kid.
They never once asked me for money — Santa likes a cup of milk and a cookie — but that’s not a condition of getting stuff.
An atheist is a label pinned (or self-pinned) on people who positively believe in the non-existence of the Big Guy who made the world in seven days or set off the Big Bang or programmed the simulation some are now speculating we all inhabit. Belief in Santa or the Tooth Fairy or Batman or even the Shale Revolution as a game-changer have nothing to do with the dichotomy between theism and atheism.
Thomas Huxley, who became known as Darwin’s bulldog because he couldn’t tolerate fools gladly and relished crushing his opponents with good arguments as much as Fast Eddy does (whereas Darwin himself, much like Newton before him, couldn’t stand fools or debates at all and preferred to stay home and study). Huxley, much like the Buddha long before him, decided he had no need to form an opinion about how the Universe was created or whether there was a deity managing or micro-managing its goings on, so he coined a new label just for people like him. The word he chose was “agnostic”.
Philosophers and theologians have argued much over whether Socrates was an atheist or a theist. However, the only evidence we have that Socrates ever existed is that Plato wrote about him. It’s OK to believe in the existence of Socrates or to disbelieve—as neither stance is going to upset millions of people with an emotional stake in the issue—but the most intellectually honest position about Socrates is, surely, an agnostic one. Had Socrates—the wise man who admitted that he didn’t know—actually existed, surely he too would have been happy to have been labeled an agnostic.
One last thought, there seem to be a lot of Roman Catholics or lapsed ones or ex ones here at OFW (me included). Is there something special about a Catholic upbringing that leads people to be more interested in the big issues of the Universe, Life and Everything?
Tim Groves said:
And what “good arguments” does Fast Eddy put forward?
Can you point to even one?
“One last thought, there seem to be a lot of Roman Catholics or lapsed ones or ex ones here at OFW (me included). Is there something special about a Catholic upbringing that leads people to be more interested in the big issues of the Universe, Life and Everything?”
Tim- I think there is something to it. Eschatology is important in Catholic thought so it would seem somewhat unsurprising if people from that culture would be led to think about our finite world.
Tim — I think what is special is that for those who are able to escape the DelusiSTANI province known as CatholicSTAN — we are perhaps more able to recognize brainwashing when it is happening… because we have extensive experience with the ultimate brainwashing institution — we are wary — we are curious — we investigate…
So in that respect the Catholic upbringing was useful…. it teaches some people to question everything. It puts you always on the lookout for bullshit.
The same goes for all organized religion — I can respect the argument for a creator — but some guy in the sky who needs to be worshiped and who needs money — or we get shipped off to the fires of hell? That is just … madness.
My experience, I went to a catholic grade school and a jesuit high school. I think the high school did a good job of teaching me to think for myself. So much so that I’m no longer a “believer”. The bible has some good “teachings”, but is mostly rubbish that people use to advance their own agenda.
And Tim,
Regarding Darwin and his bulldog Thomas Huxley, you might want to think twice before you coronate them as your new-found divinities. But I suppose that determinism and predestination are so rampant on this blog that it might be difficult to deprive Darwin of his divine status.
As Robert H. Nelson explains in Economics as Religion:
As Michael Allen Gillespie notes in The Theological Origins of Modernity, Calvin’s unwavering belief in determinism and predestination provided the goundwork for the equally unwavering belief in determinism and predestination found in modern “science.” Darwinism is, of course, the poster child for this sort of determinsim to be found in modern science.
What happens in modernity is that God’s omnipotent divine will is substituted by nature’s equally omnipotnet will, man is left with no free will, and his fate is pre-determined and predestined.
Glenn. I think you need to do a little more reading. We are dealing with a lot of self-organized systems. Whenever parents produce offspring, there are random deviations from the parents. Of these random deviation, the best adapted tend to survive. We can call this an act of God. We can call it the way nature works. We can call it “survival of the fittest.” We can call it the way nature produces bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics and the way nature produces weeds that are no longer killed by standard weed killer.
Man thinks he has a lot of free will, but in fact, what he can do is small and temporary. Making “tools” for extracting oil and many other things does a few things, but it cannot save us.
Today, the Old Testament reading in the church I attend was Genesis 2:15-17, 3:1-7.
Genesis 2:15-17New International Version (NIV)
15 The Lord God took the man and put him in the Garden of Eden to work it and take care of it. 16 And the Lord God commanded the man, “You are free to eat from any tree in the garden; 17 but you must not eat from the tree of the knowledge of good and evil, for when you eat from it you will certainly die.”
Genesis 3:1-7New International Version (NIV)
The Fall
3 Now the serpent was more crafty than any of the wild animals the Lord God had made. He said to the woman, “Did God really say, ‘You must not eat from any tree in the garden’?”
2 The woman said to the serpent, “We may eat fruit from the trees in the garden, 3 but God did say, ‘You must not eat fruit from the tree that is in the middle of the garden, and you must not touch it, or you will die.’”
4 “You will not certainly die,” the serpent said to the woman. 5 “For God knows that when you eat from it your eyes will be opened, and you will be like God, knowing good and evil.”
6 When the woman saw that the fruit of the tree was good for food and pleasing to the eye, and also desirable for gaining wisdom, she took some and ate it. She also gave some to her husband, who was with her, and he ate it. 7 Then the eyes of both of them were opened, and they realized they were naked; so they sewed fig leaves together and made coverings for themselves.
The original sin is thinking that we can save ourselves. All we need is a little technology. And a great deal of knowledge. Technology and knowledge will overcome all our problems. We can make ourselves better than others with this technology as well. While it seems to work this way for a while, it is not a permanent long-term solution, unfortunately. We are deluding ourselves. We think of ourselves and our technology as gods.
Gail,
Your position on human free will sounds like the Calvinist/Naturalist position.
According to this philosphy, man has no free will, either because everything he does is pre-determined by an omnipotent, all-powerful God or by omnipotent, all-powerful natural processes, such as evolution.
The opposite theology to this is what is called Pelagianism, or humanism. As Michael Allen Gillespie explains in The Theological Origins of Modernity, the problem with Pelagianism is that
Richard Dawkins did an interview with PBS about human free will.
It goes to show just how difficult the problem is, and in the end he flames out in an bout of cognitive dissonance.
http://www.pbs.org/faithandreason/transcript/dawk-frame.html
Gail,
And as Stephen Toulmin explains of the Modernist project in Cosmopolis: The Hidden Agenda of Modernity:
In The Worldly Philosophers, Robert L. Helbroner explains how this sleight of hand of making nature the all-powerful, omnipotent determinent — that is the “invisible hand” — plays out in everyday economics and society:
Tim said:
“Is there something special about a Catholic upbringing that leads people to be more interested in the big issues of the Universe, Life and Everything?”
Its a big world wide org, as in lots of members, a small percentage adds up to big numbers fast. If one was to question alternative ideas it was dangerous in the past, maybe not anymore. One must conform to the herd resistance is sometimes futile.
Nice post BTW
German poverty ‘hits record high’ despite low unemployment
https://www.thelocal.de/20170303/german-poverty-hits-record-high-despite-low-unemployment
Relative poverty is a inequality measure, not a wealth measure.
As in what’s poor in Brazil is most likely much lower than what is perceived as poverty in Germany.
If average gross income was €2900 in 2005 and 14.7% “earned” less than 60% of this. And in 2015 average income was €3750 and 15.7% earned less than 60 % of this. Certainly price inflation of necessities during this time.
How many, if any, are worse off?
Part of the problem is the lower value of the Euro relative to the dollar. This pushes up the relative price of energy products, which are priced in dollars.
Also, Germany decided to pursue wind and solar in a big way. This is a horribly high cost decision.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/euan-mearns-europe-electric-price.png
Paul Prew, “The 21st Century World-Ecosystem: Systemic Collapse
or Transition to a New Dissipative Structure?”
Thanks to the person who posted this link. It’s as close to my understanding as any academic paper I can manage to noodle through.
http://courses.arch.vt.edu/courses/wdunaway/gia5524/Prew.pdf
“Transition” Death that’s a transition too right? Transition that’s like a opportunity yes?
Like “the 30 year prison sentence was a opportunity for contemplation and transition”?
I guess I read too quickly to pick up on anything said about death or transition. It seemed to be mostly about dissipative structures. Here’s a small sample of what I read on that subject:
“For Altvater, the capitalist system demands that energy use increase to meet the demand of accumulation and expansion of the system. Jeremy Rifkin and Ted Howard (1989) also argue that 205 entropic processes reduce the available energy in the environment. Efforts to reverse the entropy process, according to Rifkin and Howard (1989: 51), only result in “increasing the overall entropy of the environment.” 3
Although many authors have described entropy and attempts to reverse it, the concept of entropy only explains part of the story. The increase in entropy is intimately connected with the creation of order and complexity. Similarly, capitalism, although destructive, produces its own form of order such as social arrangements and technological gadgets.
William Greider (1998: 11), in his book One World, Ready or Not, described capitalism as a machine that ‘throws off enormous mows of wealth and bounty while it leaves behind great furrows of wreckage.’
How is it that capitalism can create at the same time it is argued to be so destructive? There appears to be a contradiction if we cannot describe capitalism solely on the basis of its destructive impacts, but must also acknowledge its ‘creative’ abilities. How can a system be, at the same time, both creative and destructive? Although Rifkin and others allude to the solution, by arguing that attempts to reduce entropy increases overall entropy, the answer to these questions can be found in the concept of “dissipative structure.”
The very basis of life is dependent on a counter tendency to the second law, otherwise complex life-forms could not exist. If entropy were truly the overriding logic of reality, development of the basic building blocks of life would have been impossible because the law of entropy would demand that matter, organic or otherwise, become less complex, not more. In order to evolve and survive, living organisms must find a way to combat entropic forces that would break them down before development and organization could take place.
According to Prigogine (1989: 398), ‘increase in entropy is not an increase in disorder, for order and disorder 206 are created simultaneously.’ Thus, order and entropy are intimately linked, and dissipative structures are a counter tendency to entropy.”
Paul Prew, “The 21st Century World-Ecosystem: Systemic Collapse
or Transition to a New Dissipative Structure?”
Sorry. I got confused by the mention of transition and death in the same sentence. The article does indeed mention transition.
Americans can’t admit they worship false Gods. All the Devils are here, and you worship them. Just listen to the cheers for Trump–An adulterer, liar and con-artist protected by the Rothschild Family. And you guys put him in office.
The only saving Grace is that the other option was demonic war criminal “We came, we saw, he died.” No not quite right … “We came, we killed, we robbed his gold and oil.” There you go, fixed it for you. And that person got the popular vote.
The hidden hand? You may want to get your priorities in order before the collapse happens.
Cathal Haughian
http://www.beforethecollapse.com/about
“You may want to get your priorities in order before the collapse happens. ”
Such as? What possible actions would be appropriate for the collapse?
Decide if you want to have children or not. If you do have them, decide on what beliefs, training, and inheritance you want to leave.
Decide your level of participation in society, work, politics, etc., and do that without delay.
Relocate if you have to.
Make a list of things you want to do before you die, and start doing them tomorrow.
Get out of the system, liquidate and keep all of your assets and wealth where you have direct control with few counterparties.
Get your health in the best order you can.
Along with getting your health in the best order you may want to develop your running ability and form. Running with efficiency and good economy has been one of our evolutionary triumphs. It is still a reliable way to get from point A to point B, as many tribal people (men, women, and children) would attest to.
Attention Preppers:
Now is the time to stock up on anabolic steroids — faster, stronger, more aggressive.
They will not be available post BAU so Buy Now http://www.superbolic.com/
That’s between you and God. None of my business pal.
You post a condemnation of a large group of people but when you are asked for the tiniest clarification you withdraw with indignation. Sorry to interrupt your self righteous rant. I hope I didn’t take time away from enjoying “I live on a tropical beach”.
My take on Cathal is that she is a bit… shall we say…. ‘touched’ She is somewhere in DelusisTAN… I have not yet identified the province yet
What’s there to clarify? Can’t you read? The point is quite simple, those with Capital are worshipped in this Age. They are false gods. So yeah, I live on a tropical beach. I’ve chosen a nice beautiful place with beautiful people, wouldn’t you if you could?
‘with beautiful people’
Sounds awesome!!! Can you get me a VIP pass?
Do you have regular themed parties? Like say everyone wears white?
Do I need to wear designer clothes? Will these do
http://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/p/basics-brand-mens-tee/R1559510.html#start=1 I also have a lot of black ones….
Beautiful people…. have you lost your mind?
http://www.beforethecollapse.com/2016/02/16/why-millennials-arent-bothered-by-anything-refugees-money-jobs-anything/
Read it and weep pal, and yeah, you’re invited. Fast Eddy in the flesh!!
Can I bring my 308 along?
Bring it on
“I’ve chosen a nice beautiful place with beautiful people, wouldn’t you if you could?”
Generally I find beach crowds and the people that inhabit them exquisitely boring. How many fried bananas, thai sticks, and drinks can you consume before you are bored? For me thats less than a day. Then id rather be getting back to work. The garden and the goats ecetera. As far as beautiful people my idea of beauty tends toward the inward as well as the outward. While outward form certainly is pleasing to the senses without inward aspects outward form is also boring.
Thank you for your response. Im sorry my reading skills are so poor. My question was
“You may want to get your priorities in order before the collapse happens. ”
Such as? What possible actions would be appropriate for the collapse?
You still have not outlined what you consider appropriate actions in the face of the end of industrial civilization Hanging out on the beach is actually not a bad choice. Is that what you consider getting priorities in order a pursuit of sensual pleasures?
My network have modeled the system in its totality. The death will be concentrated in particular places, so location is most important. Some Finite Worlders have read our output, I can’t condense it further.
Articles by Gail are important but don’t provide Understanding at the System level.
Priority no one is enjoy these last days of calm and tranquility, I have my study and writing to do so I’m busy at the beach. I don’t own anything except Gold, a phone and laptop.
Luck will play a large part in who survives. So good luck,
Cathal
Sounds awesome!
I am sure it will all work out just fine — it is important to model the system in its totality — there are so many who just model one component — and that is where you get unexpected weaknesses post BAU
Have you tried the Fast Eddy Challenge? It is a way to test your post BAU plan and improve it while BAU is still in play.
I understand that Louis Veeton is launching a new line — Prepper Chic…. along with all the accessories…
Whole Foods has bulk packs of freeze dried organic food available know — you have the choice of a 20ft or 40ft container delivered anywhere in the world including beautiful beach locations.
And Estay Lodder is flogging giant packs of cosmetics — enough for a life time — so that the beautiful people will all look their best during the Apocalypto ….
Oh — and don’t forget to stock up on the Perrier…. and grow a lemon tree….
It’s all sounds so wonderful! Like a paradise.
http://i.amz.mshcdn.com/w0_7A8G3cg1zh6UmstFT8fPoamI=/fit-in/1200×9600/http%3A%2F%2Fmashable.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2015%2F03%2Fle-tigre-final.jpg
Not sure!
Good luck with the global civilization model, I assume its running on your only possession the phone. The Cal Tech guys I used to work with loved models, even after repeated ridicule, they rarely worked well even on simple weapons systems. Unicorns are just so cool though.
https://media.giphy.com/media/IL4iTvQH0MjS/giphy.gif
https://i.imgflip.com/1i2csp.jpg
I suppose I can expand on my earlier reply. My first post was a pithy one because Gail is our host and I refrain from criticizing her.
The Hill Group and her inform my friends of what’s happening at the level of the Natural System. My friends write letters and discuss such things.
If the problem is too many people then the solution is less people. So a lot of people are going to die; this is obvious; and you may be one of those that die.
Given this, you may want to reorder your priorities. I reordered mine long long ago, and I’ve had a great time since 2008. And it only gets better. But I know the music will stop one day and it’s clear, that basic behavior and beliefs at the mass level, hasn’t changed.
They still hope a false god will save them.
“I’ve had a great time since 2008”. That’s wonderful!
What did you do that made you have such a great time? Reading “The Hill group”? (They’ve taken a bit of a beating lately over at peakoilbarrel.com) OFW?
And how can it only get better? Nothing that didn’t go your way? My list is pretty long on things that didn’t go my way…
It’s all about understanding, once you understand the System your expectations are aligned with what must happen. So just strap yourself in and enjoy the ride. Since 2008 I finished seeing the World–51 countries. Didn’t have children because I knew that was a bad idea. And now that my buddies and I have modeled the Collapse; I’ll be fine if I survive.
Read volume 1 of The Philosophy of Capitalism, it’ll take you 5 hours and you’ll understand. You’ll get it.
I’ve got God on my mind since we’re discussing the relationship between Religion and God for the concluding volume. It’s interesting but slightly troubling since all the devils are clearly here.
Could you give us a summary within 140 characters?
Tropical beaches will be death zones for the beautiful people when the ballon goes up and BAU goes down. The beautiful people had better be armed with more than a beach towel and a bottle of suntan lotion when they’re caught between the pirates, the slave traders and the cannibals.
I’d rather move in next doors to Agafia.
And did you know that HRC is being controlled by the North Koreans? Watch as they log in to her mainframe….
Fast Eddy,
You’re correct that Central Banks are providing financing directly to particular companies. It’s all or nothing now. So I’m sure energy companies are in the mix.
I can state as fact that “the Fed chairs are terrified behind closed doors.”
My network has now essentially modeled the System in its Totality. The third volume is about the future, an interesting question which Gail may investigate is what is the carrying capacity of the planet going forward.
There are 3 types of people:
1. Those that refuse to acknowledge the finite world theory — who no matter how you lay things out to them will never ever accept that the world is about to end (they usually also believe in renewable energy)
2. There are those who do accept the finite world theory and that something bad is imminent — but who believe in some flavour of BAU Lite (even though there is no way to logically support their position)
3. Then there are those who accept the finite world theory — and recognize that this will result in a truly apocalyptic outcome that may extinct the human species (or at least be so horrible that anyone living through the nightmare will wish they were dead) — there is a sub group who believe that there is a creator and that it is not finished with us (perhaps we get re-digitized into characters in The World 2.0 — in stores soon on Planet XYZ!)
Maybe there are just two groups?
Those who have done their homework, thought it out by themselves, looked in to every nook and cranny for loopholes, and found none. Group one thinks end is imminent.
Then we have the lazy, every opinion matters, lets listen to what everybody else are saying, lets avoid using individual reasoning and thought, lets just trust in intuition and what the next door neighbour is saying. This group thinks in tooth fairies.
I don’t think anyone looks down their nose at Americans more than Canadians. I happen to think Americans are some of the kindest and most generous people on earth. No people are so exposed to big money propaganda and manipulation either so we cannot judge fairly.
I am frequently mistaken for an American — when that happens I just slough it off and say — no offence — it’s pretty much the same thing….
One time I responded with — whenever you think someone is an American instead ask them if they are a Canadian — they won’t be offended if they turn out to be a Yank…
Back to Mr Pery’s role in all this. It would appear that his primary role will be to dismantle/ignore/discredit the environmental protections that impose direct costs on producers. Those costs then become mixed into the soup of non accounted costs like military. The producers look better on paper. Our finite world suffers the socialized and physical consequences. Smoke and mirrors, smoke and mirrors, it’s all more smoke and mirrors.
Now if I was running a huge oil company —- and I was staring the End of Days in the face ….
https://srsroccoreport.com/end-of-the-u-s-major-oil-industry-era-big-trouble-at-exxonmobil/
Would I go quietly into the night?
Or would I call in the PR team for a heavy duty brainstorming session to discuss how we can delay collapse of the company….
Would I not drag out this wonderful example of how to defy gravity:
For several years, the U.S. Shale Revolution seemed like it was going to defy the laws of gravity (and finance) to provide the country with limitless oil production forever. However, something started to go seriously wrong as these shale oil companies reported their financial earnings. One by one, these oil companies financial losses and debts continued to pile up.
https://srsroccoreport.com/continental-resources-example-of-what-is-horribly-wrong-with-the-u-s-shale-oil-industry/
Would I not inform the PR team that Exxon is planning to pile into shale in order to ride the fake news meme…. and claim that we are turning things around here?
Would I not — when informed by the head of PR —- that our earlier foray into shale with XTO ended really really badly — and that just last month we wrote off another 2 billion —– tell him to SHUT THE F UP!
Yes of course I would do all of the above. Why should Chesapeake and Continental and all these other insolvent companies get the headlines???
Exxon is JUST as insolvent. We can beat them at their game. We can be new and improved insolvent.
Heck — we might even end up bankrupt by ‘investing’ in the shale ‘revolution’ It is after all — a great way to lose a lot of money. Never in the history of the world has there been a more ‘profitable’ cash-burning machine.
I have an idea – why not just patent the cash-burning machine and sell it —- I am sure BP and Chevron and all the others would be keen to buy some of these. This could be an entirely new line of business for Exxon.
Glenn – this is why I get paid the big bucks. I am an abstract thinker…. I create reality.
I make things better. I am a magician. I have been referred to as ‘god’ by the PR department — but the jury is still out on that
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/40/Gordon_Gekko.jpg
Anyone at this time without a positive cash flow in a mature business like shale, had better learn some econ 101 before proceeding.
Booking reserves that will probably never be used doesn’t count, even though it keeps the stock price up for the rubes.
Hey Glenn…. what do you reckon?
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
Fast Eddy,
I am fully aware that you are so in love with your apocalyptic theology that no factual reality and no common sense will ever penetrate your mind.
People, and especiallly people with some sort of religious, ideological or economic agenda, trade in distortions, partial truths and outright lies. And, believe it or not, it is not only the MSM that does this. The Hills Group is also quite adept at this.
I already demonstrated on the last thread that the Hills Group analysis is out of date and obsolete, and that the pedictions put forth in the cited chart have already proved to be wrong.
So do you care to try again, and with more recent empirical data?
Oh but Glenn…. if these companies are profitable – on any basis other than the Ponzi System of Accounting…
Then surely Exxon would not have just over a month ago — written down their XTO asset another 2 billion.
Logic 101 Glenn. Facts 101.
Come now, don’t you believe in Enron Accounting?
So what if a few (all) investors got burned
Glenn is drinking the fake accounting kool-aid.
Actually there is nothing fake about this —- these are failed businesses …. they are not even trying to fake positive cash flow …. seems they are not hiding anything — unless these numbers are optimistic…
The question that arises is: How do they stay in business?
As has been pointed out these are not tech plays where investors ignore massive cash burn recognizing that is how one establishes market dominance…. someone somewhere has decided that this industry is too big to fail (and it is)…
Glenn – what does it matter if they are viable or not — what do you care —- this is not a revolution – this is a ‘retirement party’
Grab a beer and enjoy it while it lasts….
How many teeth do I have to knock out before you give up — how many ribs do I have to shatter — how much blood do I have to spill?
You are beaten. You are destroyed.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
FYI:
In financial accounting, operating cash flow (OCF), cash flow provided by operations, cash flow from operating activities (CFO) or free cash flow from operations (FCFO), refers to the amount of cash a company generates from the revenues it brings in, excluding costs associated with long-term investment on capital items or investment in securities.[1]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_cash_flow
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
When I see a balance sheet with that much red on it…. I try to move away as quickly as possible and get some fresh air…. breathing insolvents is really bad for your brain.
I suggest you do the same Glenn — you are spending way too much time with these fake shale companies…. sniffing the insolvent — and your ability to reason is becoming seriously impaired.
Nevertheless, Operting Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow and Profits (or Earnings) are three very distinct terms, signifying completely different things.
The Hills Group, by using them interchangebly, and by debauching the vocabulary, interjects a great deal of confusion and misinformation.
Is this done out of ignorance and incompetence, or malice?
Wiki is using them interchangeably too… funny that.
In financial accounting, operating cash flow (OCF), cash flow provided by operations, cash flow from operating activities (CFO) or free cash flow from operations (FCFO), refers to the amount of cash a company generates from the revenues it brings in, excluding costs associated with long-term investment on capital items or investment in securities.
Whatever Glenn — that is a f&^%$ sea of red — and red seas when it comes to operating a business — do not suggest health… do not suggest profits… they suggest the Titanic.
So Wikipedia is your source for sure truth?
Why is it that that doesn’t surprise me?
In financial accounting, operating cash flow (OCF), cash flow provided by operations, cash flow from operating activities (CFO) or free cash flow from operations (FCFO), refers to the amount of cash a company generates from the revenues it brings in, excluding costs associated with long-term investment on capital items or investment in securities.[1] The International Financial Reporting Standards defines operating cash flow as cash generated from operations less taxation and interest paid, investment income received and less dividends paid gives rise to operating cash flows.[2] To calculate cash generated from operations, one must calculate cash generated from customers and cash paid to suppliers. The difference between the two reflects cash generated from operations.
Let’s go to the source:
The International Financial Reporting Standards
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are designed as a common global language for business affairs so that company accounts are understandable and comparable across international boundaries. They are a consequence of growing international shareholding and trade and are particularly important for companies that have dealings in several countries. They are progressively replacing the many different national accounting standards. They are the rules to be followed by accountants to maintain books of accounts which are comparable, understandable, reliable and relevant as per the users internal or external.
http://www.ifrs.org/Pages/default.aspx
https://straighttalkingfitness.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/5a904-crab-most-muscular-bodybuilding-pose1.jpg
Fast Eddy,
Please, let’s stop debauching the vocabulary in order to try to confuse people, or to confuse yourself.
This is not rocket science.
• Free cash flow (FCF) is a measure of a company’s financial performance, calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures.
• Specifically, FCF is calculated as:
EBIT (1-tax rate) + (depreciation) + (amortization) – (change in net working capital) – (capital expenditure).
• [I]t is important to note that negative free cash flow is not bad in itself. If free cash flow is negative, it could be a sign that a company is making large investments. If these investments earn a high return, the strategy has the potential to pay off in the long run.
• Some believe that Wall Street focuses only on earnings while ignoring the real cash that a firm generates. Earnings can often be adjusted by various accounting practices, but it’s tougher to fake cash flow. For this reason, some investors believe that FCF gives a much clearer view of a company’s ability to generate cash and profits.
Read more: Free Cash Flow – FCF Definition | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/freecashflow.asp#ixzz4aJ2mKxQL
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook
I have zero love for the report put out by The Hills Group. My guess is that ignorance is a big part of their problem.
I think, however, that people today assume too much of accrual accounting and of models based on accrual accounting. The real world is governed by flows of stuff: oil, natural gas, coal, water, minerals, food, and versions things made from these things. The capital goods we make require frequent repairs, or they lose their usefulness. Eventually they wear out. People need food to eat and water to drink every day.
The materials available govern what can happen in the future. We know how much oil, coal, and gas we can get out today, but how much can we get out tomorrow, and later? Engineers would like to think that the amount that can be extracted depends only on the amount that remains in the ground, and our technical ability to get the oil, coal, and gas out. In fact, we have a whole superstructure put together, that has to stay in place for this to happen. It includes a government, banks, wages, laws, and many other things. The things that go wrong are (1) too little wages, especially for the non-elite workers, (2) too little tax revenue to support the government, and (3) too much debt (really, promises based on the assumption that BAU can continue, when it really can’t) (4) not enough materials available to cover all of the promises made to different groups simultaneously (owners of stock, owners of debt, retirees, non-elite workers, government officials, etc.) Our financial system sounds the alarm, by making the prices of commodities too low.
The negative operating cash flow is a concern because it does not suggest a sustainable pattern. The company, looking at only the “operating” portion, is using more resources than it is producing. At some point, presumably very soon, this pattern has to turn around. I know that at one point, accountants were putting together models that assumed that oil extraction could on almost indefinitely, and that it would be this very late oil extraction that would somehow “save the day.” But can it really? Some would like to think that oil price can rise endlessly. This isn’t really happening. Oil companies have a lot of fixed costs. Even if dribbles of oil can come out indefinitely, is it realistic to believe that those dribbles will be profitable? There will be employees to be paid, and repairs to be made on equipment.
Models are easy to put together. The devil is in the details. It is easy for someone to claim long term profitability, but for it not really to be the case. Very few are going to go through and see what is going to go wrong. But pretty clearly, every year, companies are going to have to go to lenders with their new needs for cash in hand, and a pretty good story about why they are not yet actually seeing flows in the direction that they should be. At some point, the lenders will cut them off.
I would be very suspicious of oil companies needing more and more debt. Traditionally, oil companies have been hugely profitable. Governments have been able to tax them heavily. (I expect a profitable company to be able to pay high taxes. This is what an energy surplus involves.) They have had little need to borrow. The red ink model is way too different.
“At some point, the lenders will cut them off”.
Knowing what you know and the effects it would have would you cut them off if you were a “lender”? This is not a “christmas story” anymore. Too big to fail is a foundation part of our financial institutions paradigm now. It supersedes “red ink” “cut off”. And why not? Would anyone shut down the BAU part before it had to end for a little “red ink”? Look around at the US government balance sheet. Its a brings the meaning of red to red. Red is the new black.
If they have been deemed Too Big To Fail — I would agree — they won’t be cut off.
I suspect the shale industry has been identified as TBTF – however letting a few of the smaller/worst businesses go down would not matter in the bigger picture
https://www.mememaker.net/static/images/memes/3671730.jpg
Yet, if you followed their forecasts since they began you would have made a lot of money shorting oil.
http://memecrunch.com/meme/33GUW/you-re-welcome/image.jpg
https://s4.postimg.org/lokms9i2l/Captura_de_pantalla_650.png
Sure don’t change your mind.
XTO was, and is, a disaster.
You theologians and ideologues like to paint with a broad brush. These sort of overgeneralizatons are what causes many of the distortions, partial truths and disinformation that are so prevalnet in the comment section on this blog. The devil, however, is in the details.
All of these companies have entirely distinct holdings, or investment portfolios.
XOM’s investment portfolio is heavily loaded with Canadian oil sands, deep water offshore and other mega-expensive to extract projects.
XTO’s and CHK’s investment portfolios are heavily loaded with natural gas extraction, at first in the Barnett shale, with very small exposures to oil production. XTO, however, is now struggling furiously through a number of major acquisitons to add more liquids production to its portfolio. You can do that when you have someone like XOM with almost unlimited capital to back you up.
The chart below is what caused XTO and CHK to be, and still to be, “a disaster.” And it has a name. It’s called the collapse of natural gas prices beginning in 2008, with extremely depressed natural gas prices having not recovered to this very day.
https://s22.postimg.org/b9tlgt5f5/Captura_de_pantalla_699.png
Oil prices, however, have had a very different history from natural gas prices.
‘oil and natural gas resources — XTO Energy owns interests in approximately 40,000 active oil and natural gas sites’
But Glenn – don’t all shale plays tap oil and gas — or are there some fields that only have gas — and some that only have oil?
It says ‘oil and gas’ therefore they are an oil producer — and the company is worthless…
Just like the rest of the industry — if logic were applied — is worthless.
Shale exists ONLY because conventional oil peaked in 2005 — we need to beg borrow and steal otherwise we would have collapsed by now.
Seas of red ink …. oceans of red ink….
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
Fast Eddy said:
The Barnett Shale, where XTO and CHK got their start, produce dry gas with almost no condensate or NGLS.
The Eagle Ford shale has areas that produce almost pure dry gas with almost no liquids, and others that produce almost exclusively oil with very little gas.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_GU6rf0G2IzQ/THfQn6mINQI/AAAAAAAAADg/RyMwcvh-6vI/s1600/EOG+oil+window+map.PNG
The permian shales produce almost all oil with very little gas. Typically, on a BOE basis, gas production in the Permian shales amounts to about 15% of total production.
XTO Energy Inc.
A leading natural gas and oil producer.
http://www.xtoenergy.com/
Let’s move back to “America’s Oil Champion”:
https://srsroccoreport.com/continental-resources-example-of-what-is-horribly-wrong-with-the-u-s-shale-oil-industry/
And then we can revisit this wonderful chart:
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
The Permian is more of a conventional Play.
It is a oily place, but just look at the chart.
Can you say red?
“You can do that when you have someone like XOM with almost unlimited capital to back you up.” As you said CHK is in the same dismal boat but without the “unlimited capital”. So why are they still here? I guess there’s unlimited capital then there is unlimited capital. You could see this as CHK “unlimited capital” being better than appraised compared to XTO’s obviously top notch “unlimited capital”. Or perhaps in the final analysis all “unlimited capital” is rat poop.
Central banks are buying stocks and bonds to the tune of hundreds of billions — and probably trillions of dollars/Euros/yen etc…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-23/80-central-banks-plan-buy-more-stocks
What caught our attention on the ECB’s shopping list?
They bought “topical” credits such as VW, Glencore and EdF.
They bought “high-yield” credits such as Telecom Italia and Lufthansa.
They bought “foreign” credits such Bunge and Schlumberger (US), Nestle and ABB (Swiss).
They bought long-dated bonds (2036s), but they also bought plenty of short-dated bonds. In fact, 35% of the bonds that they bought are negative yielding.
The Central Bank of Italy seems to be the most “active” central bank thus far, purchasing 43% of their eligible universe (55 out of 127 bonds).
The Banque de France seems to be relatively “lagging” at the moment, purchasing just 29% of their eligible universe (115 out of 399 bonds). In addition, the BdF has shied away from buying issuers such as Alstom and Legrand.
The ECB has been involved in primary – buying recent supply from Bunge, Repsol, ASML, Iberdrola, Tennet, Total and Air Liquide.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-19/so-what-did-ecb-buy-short-almost-everything
First some perspective on this weekend’s activities. The most important of the salmagundi of actions is the security regulator’s promise of an initial 120 billion yuan ($19.3 billion) via 21 brokerages to stabilize the market, alongside the People’s Bank of China’s agreement to provide liquidity support for the margin-trading clearinghouse—what David Cui, strategist at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, says might be its first step toward becoming the ailing market’s buyer of last resort.
The government also vowed to make sure the Shanghai Composite hits 4,500. The scope of this gambit is breathtaking, says Anne Stevenson-Yang, founder of J Capital Research. She notes that analysts comparing China’s current rescue efforts to the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the US government’s 2008 bank bailout package, miss the fact that TARP rescued operating companies, not a stock index. “[TARP] focused on the viability of operating companies, not the optics that a speculative derivative of the economy represented.”
https://qz.com/445477/to-save-its-stock-markets-china-is-putting-its-whole-financial-system-at-risk/
Keep in mind these are they activities they are disclosing — we can’t even begin to guess at what is going on behind the scenes….
Would anyone be surprised to find the invisible hands of the central banks behind the shale industry…. I would not only not doubt it — I would expect it
When more-ons refused to accept facts what do you do?
Mock and ridicule them in the hope that they will stop polluting FW with lies and spin regurgitated from the Ministry of Truth.
So Glenn – about that $2 billion dollar write off that Exxon just booked against the XTO acquisition — can you dig out some account terms that demonstrate that actually that is not a negative?
Surely it must be an indication that XTO is actually more valuable?
Could it be that Exxon is playing a tax avoidance game here…. they write profitable assets down to avoid taxes?
I am not an accountant so I do not understand the nuances of tax accounting for public companies….
So maybe I am missing something.
All I can see is an asset marked down by 2 billion dollars — in an environment where the asset should be generating profits for Exxon…. and I am wondering — why they are writing off the value of this profitable asset?
Please Glenn — help me. Help me to understand.
Maybe you could pull a quote from Aristotle?
Logical Fallacies Handlist
https://web.cn.edu/kwheeler/fallacies_list.html
Oil Majors’ Costs Have Risen 66% Since 2011
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Majors-Costs-Have-Risen-66-Since-2011.html
Shale oil makes up a very small part of the investment portfolios of the majors. Some of the majors, like ExxonMobil, are frantically acquiring shale oil positions.
Shale was, and still is, for the most part the domain of the independents.
Ya I have heard that they are such great operators…
The small operators are always going to win …. right… they have the economies of scale…. better funding …. are able to attract the very best management …. have larger R&D budgets… all those things that big operators don’t have….
https://www.walmart.com/
Oil Majors are buying shale plays because they are dying — they are grabbing onto anything that will help them book reserves —- doesn’t matter that it makes no sense — if it holds bankruptcy off another year then they do it…. because they know — we will all soon be dead… they don’t want to go down ahead of the ship.
Maybe you could pull a quote from Aristotle?
He got just about everything wrong.
Modern Science began with the rejection of Aristotle
Baghdad Bob is more in Glenn’s style:
http://www.farbrortorsten.com/bildsamling/politik/politikbild131.jpg
.
I can’t find evidence that Samuelson ever said that. The correct quote is:
‘When my information changes,I alter my conclusions. What do you do,sir?’,and is from
John Maynard Keynes,not Samuelson.
https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/159357.John_Maynard_Keynes
US Senate Confirms Trump Pick Perry As Energy Secretary
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?hpf=1&a_id=148706&utm_source=DailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2017-03-02&utm_content=&utm_campaign=feature_1
Somehow, we need to get world demand (affordability) up. How would Perry do this?
Perry is smart enough to do the con, but too stupid or sociopathic to care or realize the results.
Maybe we could feed the massive supply of Neptune’s Moon Oily hydrocarbon reserves through a worm hole?
Gail,
In the long run, I believe getting world demand up is achieved by getting the cost of energy production down.
The lower extraction cost of shale oil and natural gas is a bandaid that might work for a while, but is no long-term solution.
And I agree with you that the proven, demonstrated ability of renewables, as of this date, to deliver reliable and inexpensive energy except in very limited quantities is nonexistent.
The only salvation would be some sort of revolutionary technological breakthrough in energy production, something that hasn’t happened yet. I, unlike some of the terminal pessimists, do not completely rule out the possiblity of that happening, even though I think the odds are against it.
If shale is lower cost then why this?
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
Just back from a visit to Google …. and still… I cannot find anything indicating that the Exxon acquisition of XTO has turned out well…
You would have thought that since new technology is available to make shale profitable — that the XTO plays were now immensely valuable — like enormous pots of liquid gold…
All I can find is this…
COMMODITIES | Tue Jan 31, 2017 | 4:01pm EST
Exxon boosts capital budget but takes $2 billion charge from XTO deal
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) boosted its 2017 capital budget on Tuesday on a bet that oil prices have stabilized, but posted its lowest quarterly profit since 1999 as it took a $2 billion charge against the value of natural gas reserves from its buyout of XTO Energy.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-exxon-mobil-results-idUSKBN15F1JR
WTF is going on here Glenn????
I know! This is the new normal. And in the new normal bad = good…. for instance — CAT sales fall for 4 years straight and the share prices goes up…
Therefore if bad = good …. good MUST = bad.
Now that XTO shale properties can produce oil and gas at a profit — due to new technology that actually makes drilling more holes in the ground — blasting away — pumping in drano and water — then repeating the process a year later because the holes are dry —- is more profitable than just punching a few holes in the ground and pumping oil for decades…..
Well… all that is good. Good = bad. Good means that pumping shale oil at a nice profit = you write off the investment because it is actually worth less now.
Now I a get it.
XTO was a disaster.
Absolutely.
But according to Glenn shale is now profitable — it took a bit of time but the ‘Saudi America’ dream has been realized.
And thus the XTO asset should be immensely valuable.
But it is not — it continues to be written down on Exxon’s books.
If one dealt in facts and logic one might look at that and think (yes think — what a great idea — to think — to ponder – to consider) — hey — WTF — shale is profitable yet XTO is being written down…
That does not compute. That does not make sense. Should XTO not be MORE valuable? Not less?
A moderately intelligent person might begin to think something is wrong with the picture … perhaps that the MSM is lying ….. but the MSM does not lie — if CNBs says shale is profitable — and conventional oil plays are not profitable …..
Then shale must be profitable.
And therefore XTO must be profitable and valuable — not decreasing in value.
But XTO lost 2 billion in value last month alone.
Glenn — hold the line … hold the line….. do NOT allow the facts to interrupt your reality….
Keith failed to hold the line —- Pete EV failed to hold the line…. and now look at them…
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fDbWGmI8VXs/UHBY6rvuCII/AAAAAAAAHdg/Cb2EfLzqBNQ/s1600/insane-asylum-dayroom.jpg
I really must get on the road to my trout hole…. the fish are waiting …. I would hope they put up more than a fight than you have Glenn ….
Suppose the shale in Texas is profitable. (I think that this is all that Glenn has said, but I may have missed something.) It is relatively a drop in the bucket to what we need, for the world. It does not make all of the deepwater oil profitable, or all of the very heavy oil profitable.
It also doesn’t make shale extractable elsewhere. They don’t have the US land ownership rights, that gives land owners mineral rights to the land. Without those, most people don’t want a lot of drilling done nearby. Also, they don’t have all of the pipelines already in place, which are effectively subsidizing the Texas oil. They have to start from scratch with everything. They also need to find water and sand for fracking–not necessary easy everywhere. Shale by itself is pretty light on diesel. If we can add heavy oil to the mix, it might make up for the shortage of light fractions.
Sadly Glenn believes more than that… he believes shale is the saviour … he believes that there is going to be a global shale revolution where countries such as China replicate the US ‘miracle’
Unfortunately this is a delusion – there is no US miracle — so there is nothing to replicate …
The thing is…. if shale is so awesome why is only happening in one country?
There is a parallel with the solar energy industry ….. the only countries where solar has any significant uptake are those where there are massive subsidies.
There is no goddamn way shale is cheaper to produce than conventional. How can drilling a thousands of holes – blasting away at the rock – injecting chemicals and sand and water (that is often trucked in) and having to do it all over again a couple of years possibly be cheaper… it just makes no sense….
The true numbers are not being disclosed…. some of the costs are being discounted … hidden…. Enronned….
All for a good cause of course
But I am not buying it. If it was so awesome there would be a global revolution and we’d all be saved…
And of course there would be no red here
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
Gail,
The problem is that if you go around repeating all the fact-free nonsense that folks like Art Berman, SRrocco and Fast Eddy propagandize, which anybody in the oil and gas business realizes are prima facie falsehoods, people in the know will dismiss you out of hand. They will tune you out immediately, and will miss out on the opportunity to have them entertain the more important, and what I consider to be more accurate, parts of your analysis.
You must strive to get as many parts of your story right as possible.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
It is a predicament consumers tapped out and the affluent profit oriented, like Warren Buffet living well below his means still working.
An endgame plan needs to be agreed upon soon for this dilemma. Time to thin the general population herd or the TBTF overhead and crash the system IMO. Of course I would prefer another decade.
An interesting film where the system crashed after too much stolen money was given to the working class in District 12 (the industrial zone) they all took time off work.
“In a future where people stop aging at 25, but are engineered to live only one more year, having the means to buy your way out of the situation ….”
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1637688/
Hawaii got more snow in one night than Denver’s had this year.
Time for skiing down an active volcano with a GoPro strapped on. Odd weather…
If everything is fake and is supposed to crash, then why do the markets keep rising?
If your answer is, people are delusional, that might be correct, but delusion is a powerful force, correct? So even if it is delusion, it results in actual behavioral changes, and thereby changes in valuations – what we believe something is worth.
Which goes right back to the problem of the individual human being, vs social consensus. It simply doesn’t matter what you believe. It does matter what the herd believes, and it matters what they do.
The herd is right, until it’s not.
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/35/c6/11/35c611ed77a6c78b4837943b3d7895be.png
The print fest of the FED/BoJ/ECB/BoE/China/.. sloshed around, some part out of the aggregate stream was redirected towards stock markets. So no surprises there.
And as always the retail mania is the latest proverbial drop rushing in just before the correction/crash, when the insiders are already out.
Some people are better than others at sniffing these trails, e.g. the housing bubble has been called, similarly the reflation of markets post 2009 was predicted as good opportunity, recall the short squeeze on TSLA was it ~700% up afterwards?, then came the “triangle of doom” and the oil price massacre again predicted by some, ..
Simply, if you score at least once or twice per such cycle (some could perform even better) and do it for few generational cycles, accumulation, you are suddenly sitting on a mega billionaire chair, .. It’s not a mystery.
True dat!
Ayn Rand — ‘We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.’
Now Dolph – the stock market is up 87% since 2011 — but corporate profits are flat…
The delusional can claim that is completely normal…. what cannot go on forever … will stop though.
Delusional people may think this can go on forever… they may truly believe it… but it cannot.
It will stop. Reality wins. Physics win. Math wins. Logic wins. Facts win
Is there no time frame between before christmas and forever?
I predicted last year that India would be the next large periphery country to collapse and here they go
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-02/indian-economy-collapses-demonetization-crushes-small-business
Not even felt here in the core. Not so sure about how “connected” the world is.
I’m thinking Mexico goes next.
There is very high probability, this “demonetization scheme” has been advice to them by ever friendly expertly entities like WB/IMF/BIS .. What a nice Frankenstein experiment of them yet again..
I was thinking Pakistan first.
I’m currently living in Mexico— we shall see.
I think the problem is the world is over extending on money generated by CB’s to keep economies growing, and they can see the writing on the wall, that cash is too physical, meaning it conveys a sense of monetary value that digitized funds do not, presenting a greater risk of inflation. If they can get rid of cash it serves three purposes; 1) With all money going to digital, people will not be so aware of the mountains of money being added to the economy via QE to push growth, 2) If and when inflation skyrockets there won’t be a run on the banks, and 3) Greatly reduces black market activity because substitute forms of barter are more difficult to agree on. So it’s easy to see how there is a push to get rid of cash. Give it another 5-10 years and no one will be asking for spare change, because there won’t be any in circulation because banks won’t accept it.
Kurt,
Mexicans have suffered far more under NAFTA than have los Estadounidenses.
While US workers have lost perhaps 10% of their purchasing power since NAFTA was implemented, Mexican workers have lost over 50%.
Mexico’s Wage Gap Charts
http://jussemper.org/Resources/Labour%20Resources/WGC-AEM/Resources/WagegapsMexAEM.pdf
https://s12.postimg.org/4exvqkgf1/Captura_de_pantalla_441.png
Mexican workers now have some of the cheapest wages in the world.
https://s3.postimg.org/60mq6fc6r/Captura_de_pantalla_921.png
One of the things that has allowed the Mexican ruling class to suppress the disent caused by the falling wages, and to stay in power (there are various), is the high level of murder, torture, and repression of political dissent practiced in Mexico. This is all backed to the hilt, of course, by the US deep state (CIA, DEA, etc.) which works hand-in-glove with not only Mexico’s criminal formal state, but also Mexico’s burgeoning nominal criminal underworld (e.g., drug lords).
One of the main instruments that the U.S. has used to promote murder, torture and political oppression in Mexico is the Merida Initiative, explained in the following two articles. As the articles explain, the Plan Merida is nothing more than a way for the United States to intervene militarily into the internal political affairs of Mexico — spreading murder, fear and terror as a form of social and political control — under the guise of the “War on Drugs.” And as Laura Carlsen explains, Hillary Clinton was all in favor of this.
As the latter article linked above points out, Peña Nieto sacrificed any moral high ground Mexico might have when he agreed to implement the Programa Frontera Sur, which did the dirty work of the United States in stemming the flow of immigrants (remember the humanitarian crisis the flood of children arriving from Central America caused the US back in 2014?) from the south towards the United States.
Remember this?
https://s22.postimg.org/cwt35xz8x/Captura_de_pantalla_696.png
This was the response of the Obama administration:
And here is how it has played out in Mexico:
https://s15.postimg.org/oot6duacr/Captura_de_pantalla_697.png
For a heart wrenching portrayal of the crueilty, violence and brutality that the United States, working hand-in-glove with Peña Nieto, unleashed against the children of Central America trying to make their way to the United States, you might want to try to get a copy of this movie.
The mistreatment of Central American immigrants crossing Mexico has been a national scandal of major proportions in Mexico. The Mexican people, led by the more liberal factions of the Catholic Church, are not at all in favor of this.
SINOPSIS
Película no recomendada a menores de 12 años.
Narra de forma realista la historia de tres jóvenes guatemaltecos, menores de edad que, como miles de personas, abandonan su aldea para intentar atravesar la frontera mexicana en tren y buscar un futuro mejor lejos de sus raíces en Estados Unidos. Obligados a emigrar, emprenderán un peligroso viaje, del que se conoce su origen, pero no su destino. Por el camino, además, conocen al indio Chauk, el cual no habla español pero que se une a ellos en su travesía.
El camino está lleno de nuevas experiencias, amistades, solidaridad, miedo, dolor y muchas injusticias. El principal objetivo de los protagonistas es encontrar un hueco en los Estados Unidos y hacerse con el deseado sueño americano que muchos, antes que ellos, han buscado. Los jóvenes muy pronto se verán obligados a enfrentarse a la dura realidad y a centrarse en un único objetivo: seguir adelante.
Película dirigida por Diego Quemada-Díez, que se estrena con este largometraje como director de cine.
http://www.sensacine.com/peliculas/pelicula-220802/
The fundamental problem everywhere is providing enough resources for everyone. As I understand it, Central Americans have been even poorer than Mexicans. If more poor Central Americans are added to the Mexican population, I am sure that some fear the standard of living will be brought down (or low wage jobs will be taken by the foreigners). We seem to see this story play out everywhere. Keeping the immigrants out would seem to be better, at least from some Mexican perspectives.
The issue is basically one of too many people for resources. The Catholic Church has not been helpful on birth control, either.
Glen,
“The Mexican people, led by the more liberal factions of the Catholic Church, are not at all in favor of this.”
IMO the Church will have no problem getting over this, they have outstanding resilience and sort of a blindness to collateral damage on their part. Have researched the history of the organization quite well years ago as well the development of the book.
I did see we have a copy of the movie in the library system, will keep it in mind. Thought of your comment when browsing news on RT and saw some recent news related to the church. https://www.rt.com/news/379365-mass-infant-grave-ireland-catholic/
“‘Mother and Baby’ facilities housed women who became pregnant outside of marriage and were ostracized by Catholic society as a result. The sites were infamously cruel environments, where mothers worked tough manual labor jobs for little or no pay and only permitted to see their children for a few hours each week.”
Anyway I guess we must just keep on fracking to hold that price down, they just don’t drill em like they used to.
We need a chart on pipe laid per year for the last 5 decades to spot where the trend is heading.
Best Regards,
Joel
Joel,
The Catholic Church has a big tent, so you get everything from defenders of Central American immigrants like Father Solalinde and defenders of human rights like Miguel Concha to the defenders of pedophiles and Mexico’s criminal formal state like Cardinal Norberto Rivera, the archbishop of Mexico City.
En México exterminamos a los migrantes, es una ruta forense: Solalinde
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BCNOxS6mIo
Iglesia católica elabora plan de trabajo para la protección de migrantes / Vianey Esquinca
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skYKoLXUqJA
Norberto Rivera, el MAYOR PEDERASTA en México
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8ogtLIYfAY
But before you do a blanket condemnation of the Catholic Church, you might want to consider what the Protestant theologian Reinhold Niebuhr wrote avout the Church in the twilight years of his life:
Glenn,
Thanks for the feed back, I did not intend a blanket condemnation of the big tent.
There are good and bad under many tents. I was indoctrinated in an offshoot tent, though gave up on it as they could not answer questions to my satisfaction. Many good people from there as well. Just had a hard time with the fact that the founder of this sect burned one of his pen pals at the stake over a disagrement of his views 18 years earlier. He really could hold a grudge I guess.
Some wiki stuff on the early years:
The founder dude https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Calvin
“Following his return, Calvin introduced new forms of church government and liturgy, despite opposition from several powerful families in the city who tried to curb his authority. During this period, Michael Servetus, a Spaniard regarded by both Roman Catholics and Protestants as having a heretical view of the Trinity, arrived in Geneva. He was denounced by Calvin and burned at the stake for heresy by the city council.”
This guy was a doctor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Servetus
“Calvin sent a copy of his own book as his reply. Servetus promptly returned it, thoroughly annotated with critical observations. Calvin wrote to Servetus, “I neither hate you nor despise you; nor do I wish to persecute you; but I would be as hard as iron when I behold you insulting sound doctrine with so great audacity.” In time their correspondence grew more heated until Calvin ended it.[21] Servetus sent Calvin several more letters, to which Calvin took offense.[22] Thus, Calvin’s antagonism against Servetus seems to have been based not simply on his views but also on Servetus’s tone, which he considered inappropriate. Calvin revealed the intentions of his offended pride when writing to his friend William Farel on 13 February 1546:
“Servetus has just sent me a long volume of his ravings. If I consent he will come here, but I will not give my word; for if he comes here, if my authority is worth anything, I will never permit him to depart alive ”
I did notice we are heading up to Fracking 3.0 now and will look forward to more details.
Fracking 3.0 — Breaking News: It was announced this morning that Chesapeake oil has secured the rights to a Shale Dowsing Stick. It was reported that this stick can find huge deposits of shale and when placed over a play the oil just shoots to the surface all by itself.
All conventional Oil Majors have announced that they are effective immediately shuttering all operations. In a joint statement the CEO’s said: We are obsolete. This new technology will deliver trillions of barrels of very cheap oil to global markets and keep the world ticking along for well into the next century.
https://epsilon.aeon.co/images/ad5ca057-e20e-4516-af3a-4da8f213a43b/header_BE058870.jpg
I know it sounds too good to be true…. but believe it….
It is the destiny of Latin America to suffer so USA can grow richer and enjoy a higher standard of civilization.
You got that right. Let us revisit ‘The Way the World Works’
– The luckiest, fittest, smartest, with the capability for ruthlessness survive – always have – always will
– Resources are finite and therefore ownership is a zero sum game
– The strong always take from the weak – if they do not then that is a sign of weakness and a competitor will take from the weak and will usurp the formerly strong dropping them into weakling status
– Humans tend to group by clan or on a broader basis by nationality (strength in numbers bonded by culture) and they compete with others for resources
– Competition always exists (I want it all!) but it becomes fiercer when resources are not sufficient to support competing clans or nations
– Tribal societies understand these dynamics because they cannot go to the grocery store for their food – so they are intimately aware of the daily battle to feed themselves and the competition for scare land and resources
– Modern affluent societies do not recognize this dynamic because for them resources are not scarce – they have more than enough.
– One of the main reasons that resources are not scarce in affluent societies is because they won the battle of the fittest (I would argue that luck is the precursor to all other advantages – affluent societies did not get that way because they started out smarter — rather they were lucky – and they parlayed that luck into advances in technology… including better war machines)
– As we have observed throughout history the strong always trample the weak. Always. History has always been a battle to take more in the zero sum game. The goal is to take all if possible (if you end up in the gutter eating grass the response has been – better you than me – because I know you’d do the same to me)
– And history demonstrates that the weak – given the opportunity – would turn the tables on the strong in a heartbeat. If they could they would beat the strong into submission and leave them bleeding in the streets and starving. As we see empire after empire after empire gets overthrown and a new power takes over. Was the US happy to share with Russia and vice versa? What about France and England? Nope. They wanted it all.
– Many of us (including me) in the cushy western world appear not to understand what a villager in Somalia does – that our cushy lives are only possible because our leaders have recognized that the world is not a fair place — Koobaya Syndrome has no place in this world — Koombaya will get you a bullet in the back — or a one way trip to the slum.
– Religious movements have attempted to change the course of human nature — telling us to share and get along — they have failed 100% – as expected. By rights we should be living in communes — Jesus was a communist was he not? We all know that this would never work. Because we want more. We want it all.
– But in spite of our hypocrisy, we still have this mythical belief that mankind is capable of good – that we make mistakes along the way (a few genocides here, a few there… in order to steal the resources of an entire content so we can live the lives we live) — ultimately we believe we are flawed but decent. We are not. Absolutely not.
– But our leaders — who see through this matrix of bullshit — realize that our cushy lives are based on us getting as much of the zero sum game as possible. That if they gave in to this wishy washy Koombaya BS we would all be living like Somalians.
– Of course they cannot tell us what I am explaining here — that we must act ruthlessly because if we don’t someone else will — and that will be the end of our cushy lives. Because we are ‘moral’ — we believe we are decent – that if we could all get along and share and sing Koombaya the world would be wonderful. We do not accept their evil premises.
– So they must lie to us. They must use propaganda to get us onside when they commit their acts of ruthlessness.
– They cannot say: we are going to invade Iraq to ensure their oil is available so as to keep BAU operating (BAU which is our platform for global domination). The masses would rise against that making things difficult for the PTB who are only trying their best to ensure the hypocrites have their cushy lives and 3 buck gas (and of course so that the PTB continue to be able to afford their caviar and champagne) …. Because they know if the hypocrites had to pay more or took at lifestyle hit – they’d be seriously pissed off (and nobody wants to be a Somalian)
– Which raises the question — are we fools for attacking the PTB when they attempt to throw out Putin and put in a stooge who will be willing to screw the Russian people so that we can continue to live large? When we know full well that Putin would do the same to us — and if not him someone more ruthless would come along and we’d be Somalians.
– Should we be protesting and making it more difficult for our leaders to make sure we get to continue to lead our cushy lives? Or should we be following the example of the Spartans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZeYVIWz99I
– In a nutshell are our interests as part of the western culture not completely in line with those of our leaders – i.e. if they fail we fail – if they succeed we succeed.
– Lee Kuan Yew is famous for saying ‘yes I will eat very well but if I do so will you’ Why bite the hand that whips the weak to make sure you eat well…. If you bite it too hard it cannot whip the weak — making you the weak — meaning you get to feel the whip….
– Nation… clan … individual…. The zero sum game plays out amongst nations first … but as resources become more scarce the battle comes closer to home with clans battling for what remains…. Eventually it is brother against brother ….
– As the PTB run out of outsiders to whip and rob…. They turn on their own…. As we are seeing they have no problem with destroying the middle class because it means more for them… and when the weak rise against them they have no problem at all deploying the violent tactics that they have used against the weak across the world who have attempted to resist them
– Eventually of course they will turn against each other…. Henry Kissinger and Maddy Albright bashing each other over the head with hammers fighting over a can of spam – how precious!
Whatever it Takes = Whatever it Takes —- killing babies is BAU…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omnskeu-puE
It’s good that we invented spent fuel ponds — no?
We are very difficult to exterminate but this just might do it…. then the planet can be rid of the cancer … heal… then start over
Fast Eddy,
That sounds like a screed right straight out of the New Atheist manifesto.
Man, however, does not live by egoism alone, even though of course some men do. We have a word for these people. We call them psychopaths.
For a far differnt point of view, there’s Peter Turchin’s excellent book, War and Peace and War.
The chapter titled “The Myth of Self Interest” is especially germane in debunking your highly reductionist, simplistic view of mankind and the human condition.
Now here is a really amusing story …
Back in the day when I was trapped in the matrix (like you are) — I used to read the New York Times — I thought it was the cats ass. I was vehemently against US foreign policy — their wars on democracy blah blah blah … I was such a wonderful well-informed LibTARD.
I used to engage in heated debates with friends – many of whom are highly educated intelligent conservatives — who believe that the that the world is a nasty place and that although the US does bad things (like Abuh Graib) but for the most part the country is a force for good in the world…
But then one day after The Facts intruded — I changed course — and I wrote my Manifesto.
And I recently was engaged on geopolitics by one of my ‘conservative’ friends — and we got to chatting …
And I said you know what — I really don’t care about any of this — I am not interested in the bullshit rationale that we are fed about why we are in Ukraine — and Syria — and Libya….
What it comes down to is they have what we need — and if they will not give it to us — we need to kill them. We need to destroy them. If that means dirty tricks like blowing up airliners or hurling poison gas amongst women and children — then we MUST do it.
Because the meanest dog wins. And the meanest dog does not play by the rules. Rules are for losers.
I want to be on the winning team — so I am good with whatever our leaders do to make sure I live large.
To put it mildly … he was shocked by my comments.
He should not be – we are in the same camp — the only difference is he needs moral rationale to justify what our dog does.
He no doubt believes in good and evil.
I believe in interests.
And I am a big fan of Henry Kissinger (I used to think him the devil on earth)
Here’s a tip — you know you are right in an argument when you once held the same position as the person you are arguing with — but later realized you were wrong.
As you come out of the matrix this happens frequently — but as you refine your positions — the incidents of being wrong become fewer and fewer.
And of course all this brutal US intervention into the Mexico’s internal politics is inextricably intertwined with the US’s desire to appropriate Mexico’s vast fossil energy resources, as this recent article in one of Mexico City’s daily explains:
The hidden hand — the deus absconditas — behind all of this was none other than Hillary Clinton and the Obama administration. Needless to say, the United States is the greatest empire to ever grace the face of the earth, and empires do what empires do, that is until they collapse.
Who benefits from oil under the ground is a good question. Mexico needed the revenue from Pemex badly. It left Pemex with so little revenue that it could not itself even maintain its refineries properly, much less take on major new E&P projects. If someone was going to extract the oil, it would almost certainly have to be outsiders. I can very well imagine that Hillary Clinton was involved in getting this set up, so that the US could have a piece of the “action.” Of course, with prices where they are now, there are no profits for anyone. So dividing them up is not a question. I expect profits all depend on the iffy prospect of oil prices going a fair amount higher.
These stories have many sides to them. If prices stay where they are, or go lower, I expect the oil will stay in the ground, regardless of what provisions Hillary put in place.
I don’t know that I have a good answer for the problem. China used a whole lot of debt to build a whole lot of efficient new factories. These, plus workers willing to work for fairly low wages, have been a pull on the market as well. Also, China had cheap coal to operate its electricity system, and workers used coal, keeping their income needs low.
The reason that Mexico’s currency has been falling no doubt relates to its problems with oil and gas extraction. It depends almost entirely on oil and gas. Charts from here. http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/
Mexico has seen its oil exports falling. This had been a major source of tax revenue. In the past few years, oil prices have been low as well, making the situation worse. It no doubt would like to increase internal use of oil, but this leaves less for exports, and thus for taxes.
With respect to natural gas, Mexico has been ramping up its use of natural gas, but this comes as an import.
If we see total energy consumption, we see it has been flat to falling. Depending so heavily on oil, this almost has to be the case. It is too expensive an energy mix to sell well on the world market.
Apparently, industrial electricity prices have been higher than in the United States. One of the issues is who pays the high cost of transmission. According to the EIA http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26932
If retail rates are artificially low, no doubt industrial rates are high. High electricity prices makes it harder to produce output efficiently, and thus less to pay workers.
I wonder if the world market sees Mexico as a dead end. It has a limited supply of oil and gas production, which seems to be falling. My impression has been that the Trump wall is being built, out of concern that these problems will eventually lead to a lot of people needing to leave Mexico to move elsewhere. Mexico has to raise the oil price it charges citizens, which it has subsidized for a long time. This is part of what has allowed reasonable living conditions for a low price. But this subsidy can’t last. I don’t know if this subsidy has indirectly affected the industrial energy prices. If it has, this would be another reason why it is hard to get wages to compete with world levels.
The Mexican government just implemented massive increases in gasoline prices. Mexicans now pay about $1 usd per gallon more than what people in the U.S. pay.
This is what is popularly known in Mexico as the Gasolinazo.
The move has been met with pervasive public oppositon, protests and marches across the country, some of them violent.
The military was called in to quash the protests and demonstrations. This should make George Bush and Hillary Clinton very happy, because the militarization of Mexico is what they pushed for so aggressively.
Video: Campesinos protestan en Reforma contra gasolinazo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNXGkxAYVbE
Crecen las protestas contra el gasolinazo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KG8Hh9k0XAI
Apoyan soldados protestas contra el gasolinazo
I agree that India is now a worry. See also the charts on Mexico that I posted in response to another comment.
The only countries which do matter are USA, China, Japan and some Western European nations. The rest of the world can go to hell but no one will even blink.
OECD nations are the keystones http://www.oecd.org/about/membersandpartners/list-oecd-member-countries.htm
Saudi and Russia not sticking to their quotas, it would appear. Colour me astounded.
“According to Clipper data available via oilprice.com the Saudis are looking to supplement the lost revenues due to this production cuts by increasing shipments of finished products. In December, Saudi Arabia’s refinery output reached 2.96 million barrels per day, the highest level in almost 15 years. Saudi Arabia’s exports of products in January this year was 300,000 barrels more than it was in 2015 and about 100,000 barrels more compared to the same month of 2016. The gap has widened further in February.
“Similar trends are likely to get seen in other countries within the OPEC cartel.”
[http://www.econotimes.com/Oil-in-Global-Economy-Series-Is-Saudi-Arabia-bypassing-OPEC-deal-568872]
“Oil prices fell more than 2 percent on Thursday after Russian crude production remained unchanged in February, showing weak compliance with a global deal to curb supply to tighten the oversupplied market.
“Russia’s February oil output was unchanged from January at 11.11 million barrels per day (bpd), energy ministry data showed, with cuts remaining at 100,000 bpd or just a third of the levels pledged by Moscow under the agreement with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.”
[http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN1690B3]
Wagon fast collapse seems to be getting more and more supporting elit members. It feels like we are on a roller coaster hill and on the down is the shark pool.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/peter-turchin-cliodynamics-society-collapse_us_586f1e22e4b02b5f85882988
I love the obligatory hopium at the end,
But it’s not all bad news, Turchin says. Awareness of our problems could help us stop them before they pitch us over the edge.
“The descent is not inevitable,” he writes. Perhaps “we can avoid the worst — perhaps by switching to a less harrowing track, perhaps by redesigning the rollercoaster altogether.”
We’ve known about these problems, actually predicaments, for decades know, but chose to stick our heads in the sand. Now, who’s got my money?
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/05/18/a5/0518a541ea5f68098e40ed458e181fa4.jpg
Is it not amazing how great minds can’t take the heat in the kitchen…..
Biologically we’re just not wired for it…
https://undenial.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/an-inconvenient-truth-vs-a-reassuring-lie.jpg
LINK
Voltaire – “The human brain is a complex organ with the wonderful power of enabling man to find reasons for continuing to believe whatever it is that he wants to believe.”
Flaubert – “To be stupid, selfish, and have good health are three requirements for happiness, though if stupidity is lacking, all is lost.”
Fake Company
http://blog.caranddriver.com/tesla-doesnt-even-have-a-model-3-beta-prototype-yet/
Most popular car in America…?
Ford F-150
https://www.google.es/search?q=Ford+F-150&newwindow=1&client=firefox-b&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjf29Whk7rSAhXDwBQKHYfzDfQQ_AUICCgB&biw=1366&bih=634
Sentier Research reported today that household incomes rose, but not as fast as inflation: and so real median household income (adjusted for inflation) edged down in January to $58,056 from $58,189 in December and from $58,635 in January 2016.
That’s a drop of 1% year-over-year.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/02/costco-costs-hit-by-inflation/
Meanwhile in the UK…
“Britain is in the midst of the weakest growth in living standards in at least 60 years, with low income families faring the worst, a leading thinktank has warned…
“IFS calculations show that average household incomes will be 18% lower in 2021-22 than could have been reasonably expected before the financial crisis in 2007-08.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/02/ifs-growth-uk-living-standards-worst-in-60-years-pensions-poverty-budget
Rapid growth in cheap energy supplies (plus debt) might have prevented this.
Now, if the UK has a large supply of oil, that could profitably be sold for $20 per barrel, things would be different.
Scientists categorize Earth as a ‘toxic planet’
“Humans emit more than 250 billion tonnes of chemical substances a year, in a toxic avalanche that is harming people and life everywhere on the planet.
“Earth, and all life on it, are being saturated with man-made chemicals in an event unlike anything in the planet’s entire history,” says Julian Cribb, author of ‘Surviving the 21st Century’ (Springer International 2017).
“Every moment of our lives we are exposed to thousands of these substances. They enter our bodies with each breath, meal or drink we take, the clothes and cosmetics we wear, the things we encounter every day in our homes, workplaces and travel.”
Who’s got my money?
http://succeedfeed.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/grant-cardone-quotes-spectators-players.jpg
Each generation of industrial humans has a mind populated with the images and experiences extant in the environment beginning at birth until death. They may not see as unusual the advancement of the growing pathology which has been occurring in the environment throughout their lives but are rather preoccupied with obtaining the most rewards possible within the paradigm of cancerous growth. Where in the brain will anti-growth, anti-consumption sentiment come from when the very basis of life is the acquisition of energy and resources and reproduction. Can abstractions about the future residing within the neocortex control the primitive desires emanating from the reptilian brain when the neocortex evolved to serve the passions? Even the conformity demanded by the medial prefrontal cortex in social situations, adhering to social taboos, may be inadequate to curb the basic appetites of the reptilian brain. Arranging a culture that condemns being rich and consuming a lot may be impossible since these activities seem to release a lot of dopamine and opioid at the reward centers.
End of the year — we are not much different from the bacteria in the cup of yeast….
This is good evidence that we do not choose — we just think we choose…. we are not free….
Nobody turns down the $20 mil and the private jet…. a few might say no — but deep down they would be burning to get their hands on the loot and live large….
So some of us can overide natural urges.
Is that what you’re saying?
Japanese proverb: “The Gods only laugh wen men pray for wealth!”
The true meaning of wealth comes from “well being”, and a lot of so called rich are not in that state. Fast Eddy can promote his warped sense of desire…there are those that are the wiser. What is the old fable…a sailor found a stash of gold treasure on a deserted island and was overcome, placed it all in the dingy, weighing it danderously. In a rush to get back he ignored the weather approaching and was caught in a storm, capsizing his vessel. He strapped the chest of gold around his waist and couldn’t untie it….as he sunk downward to the sea floor..did he own the gold or did the gold own him?
Most likely from John Ruskin…he wrote many and Fast Eddy should pick up a copy of his pondering.
There is no wealth but life. Life, including all its powers of love, of joy, and of admiration. That country is the richest which nourishes the greatest numbers of noble and happy human beings; that man is richest, who, having perfected the functions of his own life to the utmost, has also the widest helpful influence, both personal, and by means of his possessions, over the lives of others”
Many others “It’s unwise to pay too much, but it’s worse to pay too little.”
A little thought and a little kindness are often worth more than a great deal of money.
http://www.azquotes.com/author/12789-John_Ruskin?p=2
John Ruskin (8 February 1819 – 20 January 1900) was the leading English art critic of the Victorian era, as well as an art patron, draughtsman, watercolourist, a prominent social thinker and philanthropist. He wrote on subjects as varied as geology, architecture, myth, ornithology, literature, education, botany and political economy. His writing styles and literary forms were equally varied. Ruskin also penned essays and treatises, poetry and lectures, travel guides and manuals, letters and even a fairy tale. The elaborate style that characterised his earliest writing on art was later superseded by a preference for plainer language designed to communicate his ideas more effectively. In all of his writing, he emphasised the connections between nature, art and society. He also made detailed sketches and paintings of rocks, plants, birds, landscapes, and architectural structures and ornamentation.
I am not saying that money guarantees happiness…..
What I am saying is that if Bill Gates approached 100 people randomly and offered each of them 20M …. I have $1000 that says every single one of them takes the money.
In fact if you approached 1000 people … all are saying yes.
Whether the 20M makes any of them happier is another issue
Oh … and if you could go back in time and offer a hunter gathered a rifle and 10,000 bullets and showed him how he could take down a deer with it — I have another $1000 that says every single hunter gathered you made the offer to — would take it…
No different than the bacteria in the cup of yeast….
I have beaten Mr DNA – I refused to breed — I also informed him that I intend to end him (and me) by running the vessel into a rock cut when the time comes…. he was very unhappy about that when I informed him
Mr DNA has given up on me — it’s why I am like I am — I suppose…
Very few are able to beat Mr DNA. He is very powerful. I have smashed him in the face with a hard right — and broken his arm. He knows who the boss is.
We all die, some determine when and where….
I see Fast Eddie biting the dust this way
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tNZKO_68_WI
Still have to give away all your money to defeat DNA completely. Just let us know when you’ve completed th final task.
Mr DNA survives — even if I give everything away — in fact that would just make him more difficult to deal with ….. because if he saw a bare cupboard he’d emerge from the complacency of living large —- and take the lash to me….
Le Pen stripped of parliamentary immunity. They want to send her to prison for posting three videos of ISIL beheading people. Making people aware of ISILs actions is a hate crime. The real agenda is that the election is two months out and a le pen election means the end of the EU.
Letting the french people make up there own minds is not a option. Desperation after Trump and Brexit is wearing the velvet glove on the iron fist thin.
https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d38_1488484238
Entrenched clowns everywhere are trying to plug the dyke with all fingers, toes and dicks.
Time to get ready psile
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-03/south-china-sea-donald-trump-australia-fuel/8321230?section=business
Yeah, anyway you look at it. Oz is toast…
Let’s do another risk assessment, blah, blah, blah. Who can we offload this hot potato onto? Anything but change our ways. That may mean we can’t flip more houses, or go to Bali anymore. Lol! Humans are to talking, what ducks are to shitting.
And they only talk about themselves, to themselves & take photos of themselves, a nasty narcissistic species. As long as Celebrity, Get me out of here & Gogglebox are on telly their happy. Screw energy security, the footy starts up again soon…………..
I see Australia as America-Lite…. not really my cup of tea.
Did I mention the ride up the ski lift in Queenstown with the Aussie? 5 minutes of ‘why would you immigrate to NZ — why not Australia – everything is better in Australia….’
Now that the snow is gone they’ll no doubt turn up the body shortly….
https://img.clipartfest.com/a3c78be19bc96c75e80f2bddfc8ad624_15-crazy-smiley-face-clip-art-crazy-smiley-face-clip-art_728-814.jpeg
The Le Pen tactic is just a step away from the manner in which the Chinese deal with dissent, and two hops and a skip from the Soviet Union or Germany in the 1930’s.
The concerted effort to deny the validity of the Trump presidency and to ‘Resist’, the new meme one finds everywhere now, is also deeply disconcerting.
Denial of the validity of elections is typical of Africa and Latin America, not a properly-functioning republic: it is part of the step down to polarisation and, ultimately, civil war – when parties and their sectarian followers do not wish to enter into any dialogue.
‘Hate crime’ laws should be abolished: they are so vague and undefined that they act as a perfect tool for political ends. Rather like ‘intent to sabotage’ in the Soviet Union when the crop failed due to bad weather…..
Everything is growing much darker, more rapidly than even this pessimist had anticipated.
“Everything is growing much darker, more rapidly than even this pessimist had anticipated.”
I agree, Xabier. Financially, economically, socially, politically, ecologically, climatically – everything appears to be building up to some hellish crescendo.
There seems to be “new level of quality” in the French politics in recent days.
Basically, the Fillon character threatens to call mass demonstrations (well few thousands fans?) for support, blaming the media and judiciary for his character-candidacy assassination, his major sin probably more related to his lite nationalistic/shallow globalist persuasions than the media blitz about usual bit of corruption among the nomenclatura. While the sitting lame duck president urges him not to dare to do that on the grounds calling into question core institutions of the state..
Feels like the system is seriously shaking, imploding.
The next months and years both in Italy and France will be significant.
Should as a result the EU loose even the last bits of the coherent pull, the void will be immediately filled by Russia and China, meanwhile the US considers options how to attempt some sort of withdrawal from the global, yet not loose any advantage by such maneuvers..
=> interesting times
But those numbers are dwarfed by the amount required to fix Italy’s problems system-wide. There are €360 billion in impaired loans in the Italian banking system, compared to €225 billion in equity on their books. Obviously this is a problem. The FT summed it up nicely in a report last week.
“There are €360bn of impaired loans in the system, according to the Bank of Italy; €200bn of these are of the worst sort, the non-performing sofferenze. This is a huge number given that there is €225bn in equity on the books of the banking system. And this may understate the rot. Banks close to being bust have reason to mark the value of their assets generously.”
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/statistics-non-performing-loans-npls-italy-banking-system-2016-11?r=US&IR=T
How Italy’s economy does not just implode is beyond me….
I saw a proposal in the paper today, which no one expected to really to be implemented, requiring visas where none had been required before. My impression was that it was for US visitors to Europe, but it could have been the other way around. The proposal was to implement the change in 60 days.
Financial markets are now betting against the future of the planet. This won’t end well
“…the markets are betting against substantive government action, whether in America or anywhere else in the world, to curb climate change. And they are also betting, indirectly, against the habitable future of the planet”
But of course. Greedy little monkeys!
Funny how these stories always end without the punchline…. which is of course — there are no options — we either burn baby burn — and collapse at some point down the road — or we stop or slow burning now — and collapse immediately.
They always leave that part out…..
I heard they will electrify everything. That would be great for the battery makers when shit lasts best case 5 years.
Unfortunately that is not possible…. perhaps that’s why they never connect the two lies…. compartmentalize them … that way they just leave it to people to make the assumption … keep it airy fairy … koombaya… dance around the campfire …
Ya.. I was in Roatan, Honduras just last week. Tons of US money flowing in. Still – people begging. Cars are patched together until the end. Try that with a Leaf. There are no Leaf’s there… Same with outboards. Saw no electric ones. Every bit of income revolved around moving something using fuel. Either a tourist, or the food or the water. (No pipes for drinking water). This non-fossil fuel story blows. Big time. Google should start in the third world with their bullshit self driving car. The wheels look small, and that piece of junk will ram into a pothole and take out the steering on day 1.
Lol! Awesome real world feedback.
Without outboard motors and monofiliment fishing line, they would collapse.
I was wondering how much third world population relies of BAU.
Even a subsistence lifestyle (if you can call it that) in todays world – basic farming and fishing – is probably a lot more dependent on BAU than people realise.
As Duncan Idahoe pointed out even the simplest of activities require equipment Made in BAU. Without those inputs…
On the google car… it’s pretty obvious it’s not an all terain vehicle. It’s a study for low speed shuttle in controlled environments.
We have autonomous rio tinto trucks if you’re looking for something a little more rugged. And autonomous audi racing cars if you want speed.
Beyond controlled environments autonomous cars will indeed have difficulty navigating pot holes. Even if the pothole’s location is known after the first instance these cars will be faced with the decision of veering away from it – towards the side lane or into the oncoming traffic lane. The same for other obstacles that present themselves suddenly – cats or dogs crossing the road. A plastic bag blowing across the cars trajectory or debris on the road. Staight line breaking may be the safest option but the car will still need to proceed somehow. Progress on this is pretty good but still… would you want to take the risk?
There’s another thing that’s rarely mentioned and that is our ability to judge a situation that may be a kilometre or two in the distance using common sense – say, a truck or tractor about to pull out of junction. As soon as it’s on our radar we’re planning for it, making adjustments. These cars have limited range radars. I’m not sure about the range on the cameras and the prediction ability of the software.
We also gain vast common sense knowledge of routes and what to expect from experience. Human drivers communicate with each other in ways that cars cannot. Unless all vehicles were connected in some kind of closed system which seems like overkill.
The plans for self-driving trucks baffles me. They must be talking about planned routes from A to B from warehouse to local hubs. Surely they can’t mean door to door for supermarket delivery. You only have to see the kinds of locations that trucks have to reach for this to be laughable.
The talk of replacing cabbies in cities also only goes so far. Cabbie service needs to remain flexible. Most people are able bodied and do not require special assistance. But everyone else benefits from the extra help a cabbie can offer. Getting in and out of car, loading unloading luggage, help into hospital, waiting, changing plans etc etc.
So the question is, since help is needed a fair amount of trips is it worth making any of the vehicles autonomous? Maybe a mix?
The same goes for parcel delivery. Instead of going with the obvious optimal solution which is to employ a driver / delivery agent companies are looking at ways to solve the last mile problem. The only way I can see them doing this without overly complicating things is to deliver to local post office drop off points and for cutomers to pick up the goods. There are way too many common sense problems to solve with finding locations, suitable parking, verifying parcel delivery to customer etc etc. You might as well employ the driver.
If any of this did reach even partial potential we’d have the mother of all unemployment problems on our hands even without the end of BAU. More and more unemployable people being put out to pasture or… something else?
on cabs: Most cab drivers I talk to say they clean out puke at least once every Fri, Sat evening. How does that work in the self driving scenario? Smell Sensor? Automatic cleaning station?
Betting the opposite way just won’t make you any money.
Fake Company:
https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Continental-Resources-Interest-Coverage.png
https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Continental-Resources-Free-Cash-Flow.png
https://srsroccoreport.com/continental-resources-example-of-what-is-horribly-wrong-with-the-u-s-shale-oil-industry/
Should be an obvious short — should not exist — should have already collapsed.
Analysts should be screaming ‘SELL SELL SELL – this is a piece of shit!!!!’
But nope….. Strong Buy gets the nod hahahaha…. http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/clr/recommendations
And it’s business as usual http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/clr
Glenn – in light of the above I suggest you stop posting financial ‘analysis’ of shale companies.
That is even more fake than CNN.