Recently, a Spanish group called “Ecologists in Action” asked me to give them a presentation on what kind of financial crisis we should expect. They wanted to know when it would be and how it would take place.
The answer I had for the group is that we should expect financial collapse quite soon–perhaps as soon as the next few months. Our problem is energy related, but not in the way that most Peak Oil groups describe the problem. It is much more related to the election of President Trump and to the Brexit vote.
I have talked about this subject in various forms before, but not since 2016 energy production and consumption data became available. Most of the slides in this presentation use new BP data, through 2016. A copy of the presentation can be found at this link: The Next Financial Crisis.1
Slide 1
Most people don’t understand how interconnected the world economy is. All they understand is the simple connections that economists make in their models.
Slide 2
Energy is essential to the economy, because energy is what makes objects move, and what provides heat for cooking food and for industrial processes. Energy comes in many forms, including sunlight, human energy, animal energy, and fossil fuels. In today’s world, energy in the form of electricity or petroleum makes possible the many things we think of as technology.
In Slide 2, I illustrate the economy as hollow because we keep adding new layers of the economy on top of the old layers. As new layers (including new products, laws, and consumers) are added, old ones are removed. This is why we can’t necessarily use a prior energy approach. For example, if cars can no longer be used, it would be difficult to transition back to horses. This happens partly because there are few horses today. Also, we do not have the facilities in cities to “park” the horses and to handle the manure, if everyone were to commute using horses. We would have a stinky mess!
Slide 3
In the past, many local civilizations have grown for a while, and then collapsed. In general, after a group finds a way to produce more food (for example, cuts down trees so that citizens have more area to farm) or finds another way to otherwise increase productivity (such as adding irrigation), growth at first continues for a number of generations–until the population reaches the new carrying capacity of the land. Often resources start to degrade as well–for example, soil erosion may become a problem.
At this point, growth flattens out, and wage disparity and growing debt become greater problems. Eventually, unless the group can find a way of increasing the amount of food and other needed goods produced each year (such as finding a way to get food and other materials from territories in other parts of the world, or conquering another local civilization and taking their land), the civilization is headed for collapse. We recently have tried globalization, with exports from China, India, and other Asian nations fueling world economic growth.
At some point, the efforts to keep growing the economy to match rising population become unsuccessful, and collapse sets in. One of the reasons for collapse is that the government cannot collect enough taxes. This happens because with growing wage disparity, many of the workers cannot afford to pay much in taxes. Another problem is greater susceptibility to epidemics, because after-tax income of many workers is not sufficient to afford an adequate diet.
Slide 4
A recent partial collapse of a local civilization was the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. When this happened, the government of the Soviet Union disappeared, but the governments of the individual states within the Soviet Union remained. The reason I call this a partial collapse is because the rest of the world was still functioning, so nearly all of the population remained, and the cutback in fuel consumption was just partial. Eventually, the individual member countries were able to function on their own.
Notice that after the Soviet Union collapsed, the consumption of coal, oil and gas collapsed at the same time, over a period of years. Oil and coal use have not come back to anywhere near their earlier level. While the Soviet Union had been a major manufacturer and a leader in space technology, it lost those roles and never regained them. Many types of relatively high-paying jobs have been lost, leading to lower energy consumption.
Slide 5
As nearly as I can tell, one of the major contributing factors to the collapse of the Soviet Union was low oil prices. The Soviet Union was an oil exporter. As oil prices fell, the government could not collect sufficient taxes. This was a major contributing factor to collapse. The collapse from low oil prices did not happen immediately–it took several years after the drop in oil prices. There was a 10-year gap between the highest oil price (1981) and collapse (1991), and a 5-year gap after oil prices dropped to the low 1986 price level.
Slide 6
Venezuela is often in the news because of its inability to afford to import enough food for its population. Slide 3 shows that on an inflation-adjusted basis, world oil prices hit a high point first in 2008, and again in 2011. Since 2011, oil prices slid slowly for a while, then began to slide more quickly in 2014. It is now nine years since the 2008 peak. It is six years since the 2011 peak, and about three years since the big drop in prices began.
One of the reasons for Venezuela’s problems is that with low oil prices, the country has been unable to collect sufficient tax revenue. Also, the value of the currency has dropped, making it difficult for Venezuela to afford food and other products on international markets.
Note that in both Slides 4 and 6, I am showing the amount of energy consumed in the countries shown. The amount consumed represents the amount of energy products that individual citizens, plus businesses, plus the government, can afford. This is why, in both Slides 4 and 6, the quantity of all types of energy products tends to decline at the same time. Affordability affects many types of energy products at once.
Slide 7
Oil importing countries can have troubles when oil prices rise, similar to the problems that oil exporting countries have when oil prices fall. Greece’s energy consumption peaked in 2007. One of Greece’s major products is tourism, and the cost of tourism depends on the price of oil. When the price of oil was high, it adversely affected tourism. Exported goods also became expensive in the world market. Once oil prices dropped (as they have done, especially since 2014), tourism tended to rebound and the financial situation became less dire. But total energy consumption has still tended to decline (top “stacked” chart on Slide 7), indicating that the country is not yet doing well.
Slide 8
Spain follows a pattern similar to Greece’s. By the mid-2000s, high oil prices made Spain less competitive in the world market, leading to falling job opportunities and less energy consumption. Since 2014, very low oil prices have allowed tourism to rebound. Oil consumption has also rebounded a bit. But Spain is still far below its peak in energy consumption in 2007 (top chart on Slide 8), indicating that job opportunities and spending by its citizens are still low.
Slide 9
We hear much about rising manufacturing in the Far East. This has been made possible by the availability of both inexpensive coal supplies and inexpensive labor. India is an example of a country where manufacturing has risen in recent years. Slide 9 shows how rapidly energy consumption–especially coal–has risen in India.
Slide 10
China’s energy consumption grew very rapidly after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. In 2013, however, China’s coal consumption hit a peak and began to decline. One major contributor was the fact that the cheap-to-consume coal that was available nearby had already been extracted. The severe problems that China has had with pollution from coal may also have played a role.
It might be noted that the charts I am showing (from Mazamascience) do not include renewable energy (including wind and solar, plus burned garbage and other “renewables”) used to produce electricity. (The charts do include ethanol and other biofuels within the “oil” category, however.) The omission of wind and solar does not appear to make a material difference, however. Figure 1 shows a chart I made for China, comparing three totals:
(1) Opt. total (Optimistic total) – Totals on the basis BP computes wind and solar. Intermittent wind and solar electricity is assumed to be equivalent to high quality electricity, available 24/7/365, produced by fossil fuel electricity-generating stations.
(2) Likely totals – Wind and solar are assumed to replace only the fuel that creates high quality electricity. The amount of backup generating capacity required is virtually unchanged. More long distance transmission is needed; other enhancements are also needed to bring the electricity up to grid-quality. The credits given for wind and solar are only 38% as much as those given in the BP methodology.
(3) From chart – Mazamascience totals, omitting renewable sources of electricity, other than hydroelectric.
Figure 1. China energy consumption based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017.
It is clear from Figure 1 that adding electricity from renewables (primarily wind and solar) does not make much difference for China, no matter how wind and solar are counted. If they are counted in a realistic manner, they truly add little to China’s energy use. This is also true for the world in total.
Slide 11
If we look at the major parts of world energy consumption, we see that oil (including biofuels) is the largest. Recently, it seems to be growing slightly more quickly than other energy consumption, perhaps because of the low oil price. World coal consumption has been declining since 2014. If coal is historically the least expensive fuel, this is likely a problem. I have not shown a chart with total world energy consumption. It is still growing, but it is growing less rapidly than world population.
Slide 12 – Note: Energy growth includes all types of energy. This includes wind and solar, using wind and solar counted using the optimistic BP approach.
Economists have given the false idea that amount of energy consumption is unimportant. It is true that individual countries can experience lower consumption of energy products, if they begin outsourcing major manufacturing to other countries as they did after the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997. But it doesn’t change the world’s need for growing energy consumption, if the world economy is to grow. The growth in world energy consumption (blue line) tends to be a little lower than the growth in GDP (red line), because of efficiency gains over time.
If we look closely at Slide 12, we can see that drops in energy consumption tend to precede drops in world GDP; rises in energy consumption tend to precede rises in world GDP. This order of events strongly suggests that rising energy consumption is a major cause of world GDP growth.
We don’t have very good evaluations of GDP amounts for 2015 and 2016. For example, recent world GDP estimates seem to accept without question the very high estimates of economic growth given by China, even though their growth in energy consumption is very much lower in 2014 through 2017. Thus, world economic growth may already be lower than reported amounts.
Slide 13
Most people are not aware of the extreme “power” given by energy products. For example, it is possible for a human to deliver a package, by walking and carrying the package in his hands. Another approach would be to deliver the package using a truck, operated by some form of petroleum. One estimate is that a single gallon of gasoline is equivalent to 500 hours of human labor.
“Energy consumption per capita” is calculated as world energy consumption divided by world population. If this amount is growing, an economy is in some sense becoming more capable of producing goods and services, and thus is becoming wealthier. Workers are likely becoming more productive, because the additional energy per capita allows the use of more and larger machines (including computers) to leverage human labor. The additional productivity allows wages to rise.
With higher incomes, workers can afford to buy an increasing amount of goods and services. Businesses can expand to serve the growing population, and the increasingly wealthy customers. Taxes can rise, so it is possible for governments to provide the services that citizens desire, such as healthcare and pensions. When energy consumption per capita turns negative–even slightly so–these abilities start to disappear. This is the problem we are starting to encounter.
Slide 14 – Note: Energy percentage increases include all energy sources shown by BP. Wind and solar are included using BP’s optimistic approach for counting intermittent renewables, so growth rates for recent years are slightly overstated.
We can look back over the years and see when energy consumption rose and fell. The earliest period shown, 1968 to 1972, had the highest annual growth in energy consumption–over 3% per year–back when oil prices were under $20 per barrel, and thus were quite affordable. (See Slide 5 for a history of inflation-adjusted price levels.) Once prices spiked in the 1973-1974 period, much of the world entered recession, and energy consumption per capita barely rose.
A second drop in consumption (and recession) occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when easy-to-adopt changes were made to cut oil usage and increase efficiency. These included
(a) Closing many electricity-generating plants using oil, and replacing them with other generation.
(b) Replacing many home heating systems operating with oil with systems using other fuels, often more efficiently.
(c) Changing many industrial processes to be powered by electricity instead of burning oil.
(d) Making cars smaller and more fuel-efficient.
Another big drop in world per capita energy consumption occurred with the partial collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. This was a somewhat local drop in energy consumption, allowing the rest of the world to continue to grow in its use of energy.
The Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 was, in some sense, another localized crisis that allowed energy consumption to continue to grow in the rest of the world.
Most people remember the Great Recession in the 2007-2009 period, when world per capita growth in energy consumption briefly became negative. Recent data suggests that we are almost in the same adverse situation now, in terms of growth in world per capita energy consumption, as we were then.
Slide 15
What happens when growth in world per capita energy consumption slows and starts to fall? I have listed some of the problems in Slide 15. We start seeing problems with low wages, particularly for people with low-skilled jobs, and the type of political problems we have been experiencing recently.
Part of the problem is that countries with a high-priced mix of energy products start to find their goods and services uncompetitive in the world marketplace. Thus, demand for goods and services from these countries starts to fall. Greece and Spain are examples of countries using a lot of oil in their energy mix. As a result, they became less competitive in the world market when oil prices rose. China and India were favored because they had a less-expensive energy mix, favoring coal.
Slide 16
Slide 16 shows the kinds of comments we have been hearing in recent years, as prices have recently bounced up and down. It is becoming increasingly clear that no price of oil is now satisfactory for all participants in the economy. Prices are either too high for consumers, or too low for the producers. In fact, prices can be unsatisfactory for both consumers and producers at the same time.
On Slide 16, oil prices show considerable volatility. This happens because it is difficult to keep supply and demand exactly balanced; there are many factors determining needed price level, including both the amount consumers can afford and the costs of producers. The bouncing of prices up and down on Slide 16 is to a significant extent in response to interest rate changes, and resulting changes in currency relativities and debt growth.
We are now reaching a point where no interest rate works for all members of the economy. If interest rates are low, pension plans cannot meet their obligations. If interest rates are high, monthly payments for homes and cars become unaffordable for customers. Also, high interest rates tend to raise needed tax levels for governments.
Slide 17
All of these problems are fairly evident already.
Slide 18
The low level of energy consumption growth is of considerable concern. It is this low growth in energy consumption that we would expect to lead to low wage growth worldwide, especially for the non-elite workers. Our economy needs more rapid growth in energy consumption to provide enough tax revenue for all of our governments and intergovernmental organizations, and to keep the world economy growing quickly enough to prevent large debt defaults.
Slide 19
Economists have confused matters for a long time by their belief that energy prices can and will rise arbitrarily high in inflation-adjusted terms–for example $300 per barrel for oil. If such high prices were really possible, we could extract all of the oil that we have the technical capacity to extract. High-cost renewables would become economically feasible as well.
In fact, affordability is the key issue. When the world economy is stimulated by more debt, only a small part of this additional debt makes its way back to the wages of non-elite workers. With greater global competition in wages, the wages of these workers tend to stay low. The limited demand of these workers tends to keep commodity prices, especially oil prices, from rising very high, for very long.
It is affordability that limits our ability to grow endlessly. While it is possible to argue that more debt might help raise the wages of non-elite workers in a particular country, if one country adds more debt, other currencies around the world can be expected to rebalance. As a result, there would be no real benefit, unless all countries together could add more debt. Even this would be of questionable value, because the whole effort relates to getting oil and other commodity prices to rise to an adequate level for producers; we have already seen that there is no price level that is satisfactory for both producers and consumers.
Slide 20
These symptoms seem to be already beginning to happen.
Note:
[1] This presentation is a little different from the original. The presentation I am showing here is entirely in English. The original presentation included some charts in Spanish from Energy Export Data Browser by Mazama Science. With this database, a person can quickly prepare energy charts for any country in a choice of seven languages. I encourage readers to “look up” their own country, in their preferred language.
In this write-up, I include more discussion than in my original talk. I also added Slides 13 and 14, plus Figure 1.
Goldman: ‘We need to do better’ after ‘worst quarter ever’ for trading
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/18/goldman-we-need-to-do-better-after-worst-quarter-ever-for-trading.html
obviously…
the end of BAU is here…
if GS can’t do better, The Collapse must be here…
next week, I bet!
or even tomorrow!
let’s see!
Cheers!
The internet goes all atwitter over U.S. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher’s questions about Mars civilization
(another I d i o t caveman from Behind the Orange Curtain)
http://www.sfgate.com/technology/article/The-internet-goes-all-atwitter-over-U-S-Rep-11299575.php
Xab,
I am
A Spanish “Catholic” too
I is “moral”
(no lie)
http://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/embed-md/public/2017/07/17/health-care-spending.jpg
US health care rating:
36 Costa Rica
37 USA
38 Slovenia
And the R’s along with Trump want to make it worse. Those guys want as many people as possible lose their health insurance so they can tax the rich less and enjoy the spectacle of lesser fortunate people suffering more. The R goal is last in the world, not just 37th. Trump is stomping angry about it as he showed today.
The high healthcare spending of the US is a real problem. It becomes impossible for anyone to afford insurance.
Also the health of Americans is terrible even with the healthcare.
It would probably take a whole lot to fix the mess. Too much wage disparity makes people depressed. Too much overly processed food causes health problems. Too little exercise causes health problems. Too large servings and unhealthy food at fast food restaurants (and elsewhere) contributes to health problems. Overprescription of drugs is a health problem. We can’t really afford to fix very rare diseases. We can’t afford to fix every minor blemish. We can’t afford to pay physicians hundreds of thousands of dollars per year. Taking antibiotics may cure an illness now, but causes more problems later by disrupting the natural biome.
It would be impossible to fix all of the problems the contribute to our current situation in the US.
Unfortunately, the US Government has a negative incentive to make and keep people healthy. When someone gets sick, they see a doctor and buy drugs. The doctor and the pharmaceutical company make more money, and pay more taxes.
In countries that take responsibility for their citizens’ health care, the government has to pay when people get sick, so it is in their interest to keep people healthy. This goes all the way from what procedures and medications are used, to high alcohol and tobacco taxes (and ghastly anti-smoking graphics on the cigarette packs), to whole-hearted influence on people to take better care of themselves via diet and exercise.
The US spends over twice as much (per capita or per GDP) as most other industrial nations, like Canada, Japan, and Germany. Guess which countries are going to have an easier time in a slow- or partial-collapse scenario?
Medicare pricing for everyone…
but the Health Industry would fight that with all they have…
Actually, I think the so-called “health industry” would welcome a single-payer model. The way the system works now, they bear the expense of a huge amount of useless, excess paperwork.
When I lived in the US, I had four magic words that were guaranteed to be worth 50% or more off my medical bills: “I don’t have insurance.” My GP would discretely ask, “Now, you’re going to be paying cash, right?” at which point she’d slip two twenties and a ten into her pocket, versus the $150 she’d normally bill an insurance company. On the way out, she’d give me samples that the “pushers” had given her, so I didn’t even have to pay for a prescription.
One might think these magic words only worked on smallish things. But when my back went out, and after eight weeks, I finally got to see a “specialist,” she examined me, and said, “We think you’re an excellent candidate for surgery,” to which I replied, “I don’t have insurance.”
“Well, we can try something more conservative, first.” She gave me a prescription for prednisone, and in a week, I was 90% better. My four magic words saved me $15,000 worth of surgery and 12 weeks of recuperation.
Who would really fight this would be the insurance industry, which is an unnecessary complication that is sucking up to 7% of the US GDP with counter-productive overhead. They would be joined by those who work in the insurance industry, and their Congresscritters.
I agree with Gail that de-complexifying the US “sickness care” industry is an impossible task, and that it can only implode at some point. I consider myself a health-care refugee from the US.
“Actually, I think the so-called “health industry” would welcome a single-payer model. The way the system works now, they bear the expense of a huge amount of useless, excess paperwork.”
I don’t think the Health Industrial Complex would welcome single-payer with Medicare pricing for all.
And yes, the Insurance Industrial Complex would really fight it.
Two reasons why it would be so good for the average citizen.
A conference of top rocket scientists was recently held in London.
All the best rocket scientists in the world were invited.
This person somehow gained entry and in the middle of serious presentations — and between bites of his donut — shouted — I can make rockets that are fueled with cow dung that can fly to Mars…
The rocket scientists looked at him for a moment — then ignored him and continued with their presentations…
This person then began to scream I can make rockets fueled with cow dung that can fly to Mars!!!
The scientists asked for the person to be removed — the conference organizer refused — saying that everyone should be allowed to have their say….. no matter how STEWpid they are… no matter how MOREonic they are…. no matter how ridiculous they are …
https://coparenter.com/cope/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/homer.jpg
I was going to add that BAU is coming to an end soon…
and how soon? nobody knows for sure…
but hey, maybe that comment would be stewpid…
Cheers!
Pingback: Inevitability of DeGrowth: Our Current Debt and Energy Orgy Can’t Last Much Longer – USSA News | The Tea Party's Front Page
Growth.
Growth is the God of our present system.
But can anyone here explain why we as humans explain why we stop growing?
Why?
If growth is good why do we stop?
https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/07/16/960x640xTokyoSprawl.jpg.pagespeed.ic.-kdtSoFiUh.jpg
Growth is what allows the magic of economies of scale to happen. Shrinkage leads to diseconomies of lack of scale.
Growth stops happening because there is no choice–diminishing returns set in. Some part of the system breaks–often the ability to pay back debt with interest. Also, the ability to keep the government adequately funded, and government programs grow, but wages don’t keep up. Wage disparity grows in response to complexity that we undertake, to work around diminishing returns. That is part of the problem as well.
It does get tiring repeat the same things over and over again —- the simplest of concepts…. only to find that a large proportion of this audience responds with stewpidity…
David F.
You must be under 40 and completely ignorant of how the world works.
Capital economies require growth you do understand that basic function I hope.
For capitalism to work the future has to be bigger than the present. Without that expectation the system crashes. The capitalist generates his living from a rent on capital. Without that growth there is no income. Interestingly money is a function of debt creation. So the reality is everyone is living in a fantasy.
Your moronic comments and your cheers signature is simply a reflection of your inability to engage in a meaningful exchange.
Read some books. Do something so you have something.
Core OFW are very unimpressed by your meaningless posts.
“For capitalism to work the future has to be bigger than the present. Without that expectation the system crashes.” – I have read that even Soviet Russia under communism require growth. However, the day of reckoning would be much longer than the consumerist/capitalistic approach. I don’t remember the reasoning behind it however.
Yes, growth is everything. And, it is not just humans that strive for it and invent ways to sustain it (sustain the unsustainable if you will).
Here are some things I thought of as examples of things that will be the first obvious victims of “The End Of More”:
1) Pension plans (Already becoming problematic)
2) 401K retirement plans (Already becoming problematic)
3) Insurance (Already becoming problematic – Obamacare)
4) Savings accounts (No recent graphs I have seen show anyone having money to save anymore)
Another interesting thing that is in the back of my head is what about all the jobs and services whose costs have historically outpaced growth in wages. Now that growth has stopped these types of jobs and services will also be in peril. Some examples of those:
1) Health care (Flying high right now the sky’s the limit for costs)
2) Prescription drugs (Flying high right now the sky’s the limit for costs)
3) Education (Problems with student loans but the racket still goes on)
4) Automobiles (Troubles brewing on the horizon again after prior bailouts)
Autos and healthcare were probably the two biggest supporters propping up BAU since 2008. We appear to be loosing autos again. If Obamacare and health insurance in general collapses that will take healthcare with it. What is left?
Correct any activity built on growth is destined to failure. It’s just a law of nature.
yes, BAU is coming to an end at some point in the future.
so tell me, exactly how many years of no growth are needed for The Collapse to happen?
I mean, tell me exactly… EXACTLY… please?
your high level of learning must be sufficient to tell me this minor detail.
Thanks!
and…
Cheers!
Growth collapsed and dropped negative in May 208 — it bottomed in April 2009….
https://thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/us-real-gdp.png
This is what happened:
2008[edit]
September 2008 – 433,000 jobs lost
October 2008 – 489,000 jobs lost
November 2008 – 803,000 jobs lost
December 2008 – 661,000 jobs lost[2]
2009[edit]
January 2009 – 818,000 jobs lost
February 2009 – 724,000 jobs lost
March 2009 – 799,000 jobs lost
April 2009 – 692,000 jobs lost
May 2009 – 361,000 jobs lost
June 2009 – 482,000 jobs lost
July 2009 – 339,000 jobs lost
August 2009 – 222,000 jobs lost
September 2009 – 199,000 jobs lost
October 2009 – 202,000 jobs lost[3]
What do you reckon would have happened if the Fed had not stepped in?
For example — if the Fed had not bailed out the auto industry — what do you think would have happened?
Even a ret.arded donkey could understand this…. tell me you are smarter than a reta.rded donkey….
Why do we waste our time reasoning with re tard ed donkeys?
so…
when the next crisis comes…
are you saying it will be impossible for TPTB to step in?
are you guaranteeing that the next crisis will bring on The Collapse?
more insults, please!
Cheers!
They are already stepping in … with trillions of dollars of stimulus — and ZIRP.
What more can they do when GDP collapses?
The auto industry is cratering – in spite of record rebates… sales are falling…
You tell me — what can they do? They can bail out the auto companies but what purpose would that serve if people simply cannot afford to buy enough cars to keep the industry growing.
so…
then TPTB can’t do anything when the next crisis come?
and the next crisis guarantees The Collapse?
and there can’t be a recovery like in 2010?
and it’s absolutely impossible for the world economy to limp along at negative 1% for years or decades to come?
or are you just going by your feelings?
what can they do? I don’t know…
except first they will try more of the same…
for as long as that works…
which could be decades…
no one knows the future.
A lot of people think that you need to go down a large percentage before collapse happens like comments from David. What all of them (I mean really all except a small handful of people) realized that in a debt-based system and highly leverage system, it does not take much to crash the system. Artificially propping up will only lengthen it a shirt period of time because of diminished returns.
I am 100% sure that the core of OFW will understand this paragraph but I doubt many will know the true meaning.
so why didn’t The Collapse come in 2009?
Exactly, CTG.
Only a small drop is necessary to throw a very big spanner in the works, for those reasons.
Whereas I can take what looks like being an 80% drop in orders without panic, as I am not in debt, have very low overheads, operate under very generous margins, and taxation (except property tax) is proportional to income. I also have the advantage that materials simply last for decades.
Essentially a medieval business operating on the same rhythms as applied in 1500.
Few businesses enjoy these conditions……
i liken it to riding a bike
to stay on it you must keep moving forward—you cannot have a ”negative” motion.
if you stop moving the laws of physics put you in the ditch
Xabier-
I’ve got a business too and it brought it home in a simple way; if I don’t get paid somebody else does not get paid. It is very easy to understand but too many people think the paid part can be conjured up.
“..are very unimpressed by your meaningless posts..”
And vice versa, these high horse attitudes are actually very rich from you guys, again we are back to one of the often mentioned critiques against instadoomers, which they don’t address, as they limit their horizon to time-historic boundaries such as the above “capital economies, capitalism to work the future.. ” and so on..
On this planet, it’s not the first system and likely not the last one. Besides the obvious fact, the term can hide anything, as the system of capital formation you prolly refer to changed through past centuries quite a bit to begin with.
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/49/46/66/494666afcbe5c47501cdd5b2c1fec79c.jpg
It is time… we need …FWTHECORE.com……
hi Eddy!
have you ever heard the expression:
“If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen”
?
don’t tell me you’re a quitter!
that’s hard for me to believe!
Cheers!
you know, Eddy…
seems like you’re always flying around the world…
I am jealous…
but hey, can you keep that a secret?
Thanks.
You say Belarus? Great, they are finalizing some newest 1.2GWe reactors / gen3+ facilities with passive safety features, you claimed don’t exist. Granted, stuff happens, recently crew dropped that new reactor vessel in transport, no damage, but demanded new one. I’m enough sport to tell you such stories, unlike ..
Perhaps when YOU and YOUR jet travels that direction again during next yrs and decades, give them a visit, there are usually guided tours in such facilities nowadays, even in that part of the world. Perhaps much more interesting than dumper swimming inside a container..
I have a quick question for worldofhamumanotg – if you feel that you do not learn anything here and being bashed, why do you keep posting here? I mean there are so many others who disappear after a while when they realize that they cannot change us?
Here’s the thing…
In the past when I posted on Peak Prosperity — my comments regarding thorium (I exposed that the guest was not disclosing his interests in a thorium business) were removed. And I was told I was not welcome via an email…
Likewise on Wolfstreet – I stopped posting because when I made Wolf look like a fool he removed my comments — and held all new ones — I dropped a comment onto his EV puff piece last week that indicated the HK government had commissioned a research paper that indicated if coal is used to power an EV those vehicles are dirtier than petrol vehicles — I suggested that may have been behind HK’s removal of EV subsidies…
VERY valid comments.
Not posted.
I am not sure what he is thinking — surely that comment was relevant — perhaps he thinks I am an ideeot.
I do not understand why we have to entertain people on FW who we KNOW are idi ots. Total illogical moreons…. these are the same jerk o..ffs who live in the permie/renewable energy/koombaya sewers….
Tit for tat.
They should be shown the door. FW is being ruined.
JT…
so tell me again why The Collapse didn’t happen in 2009.
oh, and look, insults!
I am so impressed by your intellectual argument!
tell me again why The Collapse hasn’t happened yet.
Thanks.
and…
Cheers!
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/49/46/66/494666afcbe5c47501cdd5b2c1fec79c.jpg
David F
I can’t waist my time with you.
Find a reference or study and present a point.
Or just blow smoke.
Your an intellectual lightweight.
Your mental spasms are not real information as you believe them to be.
but JT…
because you are such an intellectual heavyweight…
why can’t you just tell me when The Collapse is coming?
or do you just go by your feelings?
Cheers!
by the way, Eddy above just presented a chart showing GROWTH!
we know growth is ending and BAU as well…
so just tell me when…
please?
http://www.FWThecore.com
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qUH2sD4GWB0/UUn5xBphLjI/AAAAAAAAA2o/MMYWv7n8sNw/s1600/thumb-up-terminator+pablo+M+R.jpg
trollfeeding is banned in this zoo
hi Norman…
so you are certainly one of the intellectual heavyweights here…
so tell me…
do you really think it’s impossible for the world to limp along at 1% contraction for many years or decades to come?
after all, there are a few decades worth of oil and natural gas that remain…
I would be interested in your perspective…
Thanks.
the baseline to this problem, is that pre oil the world supported 1bn people or thereabouts
in the 250years since the industrial revolution, weve grown x7
it is a logical conclusion to draw, that the extra 6 bn were put here by coal, oil and gas (not prayer or human ingenuity). Bear in mind that that is one of the ultimate denials that we have to live with.
The next conclusion is, that without those fuels, 5 or 6bn do not have a future
but they are determined to have a future, irrespective of where they live.
If you think we can feed 7–8–9–10bn, then you do not have to read further. (pointless)
If you think we can’t then there has to be a reason why not.
Pop is growing at 80m a a year–(another Germany if you like)
So you have an expanding population in a contracting environment. An inevitable series of flashpoints, because people insist on getting fed. With modern media, its possible to stand in a supermarket and transmit live movie of abundant food to starving people in Somalia or wherever.
If you think that is irrelevant–again read no further
People in a contracting/starvation environment start to move to where the food is (or die in the attempt)…this is happening right now. So far this year 100000 people have crossed the Med, thousands have died trying.
as our energy supplies deplete, our means of food production will also deplete, so ultimately we will not have sufficient food to feed ourselves, let alone migrants, who also demand their share of the good life. Few can accept that food is oil in another form, and we have no other way of producing it in sufficient quantity
But our current economic system can only function within a stable global environment, even a seemingly insignificant 1% downturn year on year will destabilise our commercial infrastructure (ie throw millions out of work) That downturn will destabilise food production/distribution over time, a decade at the absolute limit—not because we couldn’t produce it for a short time, but because limits will be obvious, and conflict will become inevitable.
This is why I already name US civil wars to come as wars of denial.
this may explain it better:
https://extranewsfeed.com/from-oilslick-to-tyranny-e35d04b31fc3
Remember that 1% pa reduces everything by half in 35 years. Long before then the looming catastrophe will be obvious—which is why I gave 10 years max–might be less.
As to oil and gas, they can be reduced to calorific values, as can the effort to extract them. There will always be oil in the ground, but if you have to expend more energy to get hold of it, than you get out of it, then it stays where it is.
Laws of physics beats wishful thinking every time.
i meant to add—that I’ve given you the facts as they stand.
Iam am not responsible for belief or disbelief
thanks, Norman
I think what Norman meant instead is 100k african people were transported mostly from Libyan shore to Italy proper by smugglers, NGOs funded by .. , and Italian NAVY.
Now, France closed it’s harbors to this crazyness, similarly and much earlier tougher policy by Spain. The Balkan route has been shut for now by Turkey, Moldova, Hungary, now it seems Austria and few others joined as well..
You know where this is headed in future stages don’t you?
They may come close/r, but they won’t be allowed in..
i was trying to illustrate the imbalance and thus conflict caused by affluence in one place and poverty in another
in the usa–affluence still outweighs poverty—when the scales finally tip—you will have armed insurrection.
we do not know when the scales will tip though.—but right now affluence is being taken to obscene levels
Norman
0.99^35 = 0.7
But soon available energy will be falling much faster than 1%pa.
The best numbers I’ve seen indicate 3% to 5% depletion coming up Any Day Now.
Of course, we’re tracking IEA’s “undulating plateau” that they predict will last until 2030… the Peak Oilers never thought this would happen! Feeling lucky?
i agree with you
i was just using the 1% that was being bandied around, as a start point
hi Eddy…
can I join?
please?
otherwise, I will just have to lurk…
no fun!
Cheers!
http://www.core-condition.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Join-The-Summer-Shred21-Day-Challenge.png
Coal and Nuclear are Uneconomic — More Bombshells from Perry’s Draft Grid Study
http://peakoil.com/alternative-energy/coal-and-nuclear-are-uneconomic%E2%80%8A-%E2%80%8Amore-bombshells-from-perrys-draft-grid-study
shale oil and solar and wind are uneconomic too!
oh, no, is this the end of BAU?
or just the end of growth?
there is a difference…
Cheers!
oh, no, is this the end of BAU?
or just the end of growth?
there is a difference
http://imgur.com/a/ZbmAP
Mastermind, er, Cliff…
is that you on the left or on the right?
Cheers!
https://davefarmersblog.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/caution_moron_alert.jpg
ITEOTWAWKI
What I fear is common sense is something your either born with or without. I grew up in the refrigeration industry. At the age of 12 I remember thinking as we cut lines and blew the charges into the atmosphere. This has to be going somewhere and doing something.
I was right.
Cause and effect and exponential are something I’m not sure can be taught.
The ability to think and reason are supposed to be what separates man from lesser species. There are a few folks that can do layered, abstract and systems scale thinking. But, they seem to be very rare. Most people compartmentalize their thinking when they should be networking their thinking across all subject matters.
An example of this is to focus on the electric car as an example of the future of transportation. In and of itself, the electric car looks promising. Looks good on paper. However, the rosy outlooks ignore the resource extraction to build the car, the energy to maintain the roads, the source of fuel to provide the electricity to charge the car (coal and NG), the maintenance and upgrade costs of the electric grid to supply electricity and so on and so forth.
It is this cross-disciplinary thinking that is needed to really connect the dots and have the AaaaHaaa moment so many here have had.
AaaaHaaa… good one, Greg…
But what about autonomous vehicles? Self-driving? (some call them self-crashing)
If everyone in the world had one, at maybe a million dollars each, wouldn’t that save IC?
Just think how wealthy everyone would be!
to be oh so very clear, that paragraph was sarcasm.
Cheers!
This is the same type of person who will say ” I guess I have to walk or cycle to work” when the prices of oil shot to the moon years ago. When confronted with “You know oil is used everywhere and it hurts the whole world when it is expensive, they will say “oh.. is that a problem?”
There many people who will correct your spelling error but failed to see that you stated a wrong fact/reason in your essay exam. In other words picking on the small issues but failed to see the big issue.
There seems to be a disconnect among some who believe that currency builds economy. Economy is simply a transfer of energy between parties. Money is irrelevant and has little meaning other than definition. By treating money as an object people have been deceived by it’s real function.
A billionaire has no more wealth than a homeless person if the system breaks. Whether the governments are conscious of this or not is debatable but they act in unison to keep BAU going. The next financial crisis will be played as irresponsible management. But the truth is the dog is dead. When the fleas realize that then things get very interesting.
It was a most ingenious thing to attach the dollar (which can be easily created by the owing class) to energy based resources. This is enforced by military force for a reason. He who controls the money supply hence controls the energy flows and really does control the world.
Greg
Spot in almost to ingenious.
JT
On
Really? Are we talking about the same billionaires? The ones with paid-up housing? The ones with closets full of clothes and pantries full of food? The ones with a herd of servants who are suddenly willing to work for housing, clothing, and food? The ones with armories and mercenaries, also willing to defend the billionaire for housing, clothing, and food? The ones with friends in High Places, including whatever is left of the military?
I must admit, I don’t personally know any billionaires. But I would guess that they command resources that could be useful in a post-collapse world — resources a homeless person could not even imagine.
But I could be wrong, as Bill Gates was telling me at the food bank last week…
Bill Gates ha! yes, good stuff…
if person A has the guns and ammo and person B has the food…
who ends up with the food?
David, your a simpleton. It isn’t that simple. Your scenario depends on how far apart the two are. Your scenarios depends on the availability of ammo. your scenario depends on person A knowing how to use the gun. You also missed the unexpected that person B has a gun too and is wearing body armor.
CTG
Nice string of comments you have common sense and it has served you well. It’s unfortunate that OFW has reached over 3000 comments considering at least half are worthless. But to your point worthless information designed to distract.
Most of the comments are not worth responding to. The fundamental problem is that infinite growth on a finite planet is impossible. So those who recognize that reality draw the same basic conclusion.
The problem is people who are lacking any scientific understanding present magical solutions and they believe them to be true. The common sense they avoid is that truth must be discovered. Truth is not built by consensus.
I recently discussed economics with a friend who’s 30 something. I quickly realized he felt that he could debate anything. He had tons of knowledge but wasn’t tethered to anything. In his mind he thought the entire issue was management rather than a systematic problem.
As you’ve noticed the comments about TPTB. The powers that be. People are completely unaware of the issues. Greg tried to clear it out. FE will likely come in with both guns blasting. Norm has tried. But you have to wonder what you working with. Frankly the BAU lites are simply ignorant. And your right it has been their choice because it is caused by their own unwillingness to investigate.
I agree….CTG is among the sharpest commenters on OFW…which makes it funny when a BSKGFWhatever or a Kurt put his comments down as simple blablabla…
These people are a disgrace to FW. It is a wonder CTG continues to post…. such a waste of intellect.
Recall the engineer from Canada who used to post some excellent comments from time to time — perhaps she tired of wallowing in the mud with id iots.
We also had a hydro engineer who penned a very lengthy comment explaining why there was no way in hell hydro power would be available post BAU
That is what is lost when we allow MORE ons to dominate FW.
More than half the time is spent reading the mor onic comments – and responding to them… meaning there are fewer constructive discussions.
You’re describing a variation on Gresham’s Law, in this case “bad comments drive out good.”
Over time, this can degrade the quality of the threads, not only because of the presence of so many “bad” comments that have to be scrolled or waded through, but also because in such an atmosphere many of the best commenters get tired of casting their pearls of wisdom before swine and eventually give up posting.
JT “Most of the comments are not worth responding to. The fundamental problem is that infinite growth on a finite planet is impossible. So those who recognize that reality draw the same basic conclusion.”
yes, I see that so clearly… it’s a giant flashing sign… can’t miss it…
growth is impossible…
so what?
here’s another fundamental problem – the future is unpredictable…
now I suppose some persons could wheel out their hubris and claim they know for sure that The Collapse is coming soon, whatever “soon” means to them…
care to wheel out your prediction?
we all know that BAU is coming to an end…
no one knows how soon…
Cheers!
“growth is impossible…so what?” Ummm maybe because BAU depends on growth.
Ummmm no it doesn’t…
otherwise BAU would have ended in 2009…
yes, BAU will be “usual” but unusual – unstable without growth…
this is certainly the type of BAU that we have seen for about a decade now…
more decades are coming with no growth!
Cheers!
The global economy has been growing since 2009
http://blog.euromonitor.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/world-real-gdp-growth.png
Global growth, currently estimated at 3.1 percent in 2015, is projected at 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017. The pickup in global activity is projected to be more gradual than in the October 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO), especially in emerging market and developing economies. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/update/01/
Before you post more gibberish you might think first — even do a bit of research — because otherwise you will be called a MOREon.
Which is what you are. A MOREon who wastes my time. When there is little time remaining
the economy contracted in 2008/2009…
why didn’t The Collapse happen then?
So NOW you are saying things are good?
I mean, there’s GROWTH!
and insults!
bring em on!
Cheers!
https://davefarmersblog.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/caution_moron_alert.jpg
hey Eddy…
I think BAU is coming to an end soon…
don’t you agree?
careful, you might be agreeing with a “moreon”
Cheers!
Fools wrestle with fools.
My Canadian Grandmother taught me that.
Maybe yours didn’t.
well JT…
who are YOU wrestling with?
Cheers!
https://davefarmersblog.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/caution_moron_alert.jpg
hi Eddy…
I agree with a lot of your posts…
so by default, you are in agreement with much of my thinking…
sweet!
Cheers!
So you think you’re a moron? 😂
MOREONS ‘R’ US!
I’m cool with that.
https://youtu.be/fpcJyn3N5ks
the world economy did not collapse in 2008-9 because the veins and major arteries in Hank Paulson’s neck did not explode under pressure. they expanded, as can be clearly seen on TV, but they held, and here we all are now.
thanks be to Hank’s strong veins and arteries.
LOLLL!!!
I still remember how stressed he looked…he was like “give me 700B$ NOW…don’t ask questions JUST GIVE IT TO US NOW…”
Next time around no amount of money will save us…
This is our song.
https://youtu.be/nMMBdarduac
” ‘growth is impossible…so what?’ ‘Ummm maybe because BAU depends on growth.'”
Greg might mean (I don’t know) that BAU has to keep going (which he and others see as synonymous with keeping it growing). Keeping it going now is the same as keeping it growing. Growth as the way to keep it going is so firmly established that none of us could stay alive if you suddenly stopped that system of growth. What is much less resolved in my mind is whether you can keep it going without keeping it growing (in the exact way that it’s growing now…which also seems to be running out of steam). If there is more than one way to keep it going, I’d like to know.
It’s seems like an organised troll attack. Notice the posts look very similar, with no evidence to support claims, except to point out how good everything looks in the rear-view mirror. And that since we have not died to date, no one will ever die.
http://www.dvdtalk.com/reviews/images/reviews/1/1190578706_5.jpg
Yes Psile. My belly is full so it will always be full. I am well so I will always be well. The normalcy bias strikes again. I view 2008 like driving a car and hitting a patch of ice on a sharp curve and crossing the median narrowly escaping a head on collision with on-coming traffic. Then, swerving back across the median back into my lane again without crashing. Whew. That was close. What a ride. I am shaking all over. But, I’m good. Nothing could possibly go wrong now could it? There will never be another patch of ice on the roadway.
I have experienced that — did a 360 on black ice on HWY 17 in northern ontario — plenty of tractor trailer traffic on that road…
Shaking for a good 5 minutes afterwards….
2008 did not play out so quickly so I was not shaking … but it had a near death feeling to it
Harley Davidson Sales Declining. Layoffs Are Planned.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-18/harley-davidson-is-losing-its-cool?cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social
baby boomers are aging, so goodbye Harley…
so does this mean the end of BAU?
I mean, if HD goes bankrupt, won’t that cause The Collapse?
Why are you so obsessed with 9/11? Did that event cause your brain to go haywire?
Look closely at the film and replay it, even though it is not a pleasant thing. But when you do that, you see clear the towers collapsing at the point of impact of the planes. The levels below then buckled and collapsed in because they couldn’t handle the weight of the levels above. In fact the planes seem to have hit at a correct spot. (This is common sense – hit the towers too high, and only minimal damage will be done, while hitting the towers at a low point is physically impossible given the surrounding buildings).
And yes the third building was brought down by debris and fire. What you conveniently forget in all of this is that the attacks in Washington D.C. were largely a bust. If this was all orchestrated, why weren’t there explosives in the Pentagon? How come passengers fought back on one of the planes?
aah, a good steak on the grill…
aah, BAU…!
two ways to ruin a good steak…
1 overcook it
2 put anything on it
aah, BAU…!
Cheers!
oh, wait.
BAU?
it’s over.
now that the 2008/2009 Great Recession is here…
I predict The Collapse by 2013 or 2014…
2015 at the very latest!
you heard it here first!
Cheers!
You might might want to look in to the physics of the conservation of momentum. The only way all three towers could have fallen to the ground in the time they did was for all structure and mass below the impact point to have been removed and already in freefall. For a long time N.I.S.T.* disputed the “fall time” for each tower but eventually had to agree to the fall time that conclusively proves the structure of the towers had to have been taken out from below. N.I.S.T. refuses to comment on how the towers could fall this quickly if they collapsed from the top down.
*national institute of standards and technology
“The only way all three towers could have fallen to the ground in the time they did was for all structure and mass below the impact point to have been removed and already in freefal”
I don’t understand that at all. If something is heavy (I think half a skyscraper qualifies), what is going to stop it? Certainly not a single floor (and then another and another and so on).
The NIST whistle blower explains all
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoCS6lNpqhE
FYI:
Mission
The Engineering Laboratory promotes U.S. innovation and industrial competitiveness by advancing measurement science, standards, and technology for engineered systems in ways that enhance economic security and improve quality of life.
NIST is the gov’t agency tasked with investigating 911
https://www.nist.gov/el/faqs-nist-wtc-towers-investigation
Listen to President George W. Bush talking about planted explosives going off in the Twin Towers, reading from a prepared script. Can’t get much more official than that.
https://youtu.be/fpcJyn3N5ks
We are all being fed a bunch of bull$hit. Not just on 9/11 but everything. Thankfully, we are nearing peak bull$hit.
++++++++
I live in hope that any future bull$hit shortage can be overcome by using more chicken$hit.
Let’s hope so, since we long ago reached peak horsesh#t.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-S_0PYjHE8y0/UIPW0sGf75I/AAAAAAAAFCI/vDMIkLD20Bc/s1600/muck.jpg
Here’s how it looked in New York (c.1894), as horses left 2.5 million pounds of manure on the streets every single day…
Yikes, four coil steamers everywhere lies in our future!
I don’t suppose that one instance could have been an honest mistake? I mean a plane full of jet fuel rammed into a building is not somehow “explosive”?
I don’t suppose that one instance could have been an honest mistake? I mean a plane full of jet fuel rammed into a building is not somehow “explosive”?
Could “explosives planted in the buildings” be interpreted as “planes loaded with jet fuel rammed into the buildings”? Not by me, but at the same time I would never misunderestimate George W. Bush’s rhetorical skills.
Donald Trump (talking with Peter Jennings and speaking much more clearly than Bush) is on record as surmising that there were bombs placed in the buildings in addition to planes crashing into them.
https://youtu.be/Rt-ldMj9y9w
You fast collapse people are already wrong. That’s the key point. Events have proven you wrong because the fast collapse hasn’t occurred on schedule.
Do not take your own mid life crisis and apply that to the system as a whole. A mid life crisis is just that. I’m telling you, the young don’t care, they are getting together, they are dating, they will produce babies. Just like it’s been for thousands of years.
Even big thinkers have a hard time with collapse. Here is Orlov:
“But another obvious development is that the purchasing power of Russians has shrunk appreciably. Over the past five years crude oil and natural gas prices have been cut in half, largely as a result of the glut produced by fracking in the US, and the value of the ruble has been cut in half with it, going from 30 per USD to 60. I am convinced that this effect is temporary. I don’t wish to go into great detail on it here, but the energy companies that have produced this glut have been cherry-picking production sites, with the best ones already drilled out and pumped out. Meanwhile, they have gone very deeply into debt and many of them have already gone bankrupt, so in the future the glut will not be in oil or gas but in bankruptcy filings. It would appear that Russia is weathering this period of low hydrocarbon prices quite well.”
So you are more insightful than Orlov?
What are your credentials?
I like orlov, bit i was surprised at his fracking story. That’s so MSM.
What the world lacks currently is “common sense”. We are so blinded by so many issues that are irrelevant to our survival. These do not exist 50 years ago. It can be seen so clearly in my high school in the 1990s onwards until today where the standards has dropped and students were forced fed without any need of any thinking. We have so many adults that are also lacking thinking skills or common sense. That is why it is a not a surprise at all the the level of IQ dropped over the years when it was compared to the Victorian era.
I love to visit the Zerohedge site but I never read the articles because I know most of them (it is just a repeat) but I will make an effort to read all the comments. Many people say that they are of very low quality but I do find a lot of information inside. People report their local conditions (boots on grounds like how their dealer car parks are overflowed with cars) that I can believe in because no one is in the right mind to report that and sometimes, people from other places corroborate this claim. Therefore, I can say it is the truth and not spewed from MSM. I learned a lot of financial engineering in these comments as well. Sometimes, when you read about Trump, it shows how discontented people are (not in Zerohedge but a lot of other sites) and to me, Trump is not the cause but a symptom of what has happened in USA. When people argue in the comments, you learn a lot of other stuff as people referenced to some other things that I don’t even know (like some episodes in Star Trek where it is a satire of what is happening now but the show was shown more than 50 years ago.) If you go to ENENEWS, you get people corroborating on how wildlife has vanished in some places and dead sea life everywhere. Why would people want to lie in this matter?
Spent fuel ponds – I feel such a deep disappointment that people still talk about this when it is such a big issue. I have a degree in physics from a university in North Carolina and I can easily understand what is happening there and I know that there is no cure for that. Common sense will tell you something is wrong when Japan banned newspaper and anyone reporting on Fukushima. You can be jailed for that. So, why would that happen if it is “not an issue”? Doesn’t your common sense tells you something is not right. If a bank offers a 110% LTV (loan to value) for your house (i.e. your mortgage is 110% of your purchase price), people are happy. Why was it offered ? because buyers could not afford it. If everyone can afford it, do the banks need to offer 110% LTV? Common sense is seriously lacking and this. The best part is that charlatans will pose as experts and everyone agree to it until the Seneca cliff comes and everyone says “we did not see it coming”.
Worldofhanumanotg – after all these years that you are here, I think you did NO research or improve yourself on what you know. I guess you are not ready to take the red pill. I do not comment here much because there is nothing much to comment. All these things have been discussed again and again and again. However, from all these years, I see that you do not even do some reading and put in some common sense. Fukushima – air cooled casks, etc – do you seriously think it will work when TSHTF? Why is it no one is doing it now while BAU is still present? Why? Why ? why? Do you ever ask yourself this question? Do you actually have a science background? Do you have a physics background? If not, how can you say out so loud about what you don’t have expertise in?
I do not want to argue with people if they do not take the effort to educate themselves first before they start talking.
Cli.mate change – yes humans do cause it but does it really matter a single bit? This is really picking pennies in front a gigantic steamroller.
Nine.eleven – it is so outrageous that people are so blinded that they just following a narrative and do not use common sense or brain at all. Humans should be extinct because they are not fit to stay in this planet. Biology suggests that we are given a large brain for a purpose and we are not using it. Without even going through the brain, how can 2 planes bring down 3 buildings? How can it be possible? How? How ? how? Magic?
Question everything. Believe nothing. (anyone doing that?)
pap – show us something new, not filler.
Quite frankly, I find that a bit spooky, CTG
Yup
hi CTG,
to respond to your previous request to comment on “slow collapse” (yes, an oxymoron)…
IF the economy declines by an average of 1% per year to 2117, what is the result?
IF the economy stays flat until 2117 then we get The Collapse, what is the result?
there certainly is more than one path for the world economy to come to a halt.
Cheers!
I have no wish to comment or debate with people who do not want to improve on self. Read up and the come talk to me on what you have said. You have to find the answer yourself if you are interested to know.
IF the economy declines by an average of 1% per year to 2117, what is the result?
Death
IF the economy stays flat until 2117 then we get The Collapse, what is the result?
Death
The economy must keep “growing”. Growing its debts, consumption and population, to keep stable.
Well stated CTG. Agree with all your points. 9/11 is another victim of diminishing returns. Attempts to secure more oil by galvanizing public opinion against oil producing countries. CTG – “how can 2 planes bring down 3 buildings?” – The magic airplane of course. All that jet fuel spewed onto building 7 and melted it to dust. HAHAHAHA. In all seriousness, building 7 was a controlled demo. That is settled science. What isn’t settled is the cover-up that continues to this day. The whole of what we call BAU seems to be one big cover-up operation.
I can sense you have great specialization in science of, .. obfuscation to put it mildly, as air cooling spent fuel is a claim I never put forward, however it’s usually the first sentence or paragraph FE opens on this topic, hence perhaps your copy cat bias..
I wrote several times about the different types of containment, storage for hazardous nuclear waste, temporary, long term storage possibilities, MOX fuel recycling lessening the burden of so much old fuel, .. , planned or actually performed on industrial scale as we speak.
In terms of Fukushima, I simply stated fact, that particular site has been KNOWN area of active fault line and tsunami strike zone. Somehow, someone approved it, and at that point on I speculated it was mostly due to rampant corruption in Japan, which takes place on these large subsidized projects. Similarly, yet from bit different vein, how former USSR authorities of that industrial sector in Ukraine Republic allowed such “madman” anywhere near the control desk.
So, on these and few similar cases, you boast to guarantee to us that everything nuclear related gets simply unattended in globally synchronized universal instadoom moment. Despite the historic truism of people more than happy to dump other people in times of heightened crisis, e.g. nuclear installation gets likely higher priority, so gov-mil apparatus facing unrest would rather dump entire sub-region in order to secure necessary resources (not that much anyway for that task) to let the spent fuel pond cool enough few more yrs, before dumping it into long term place and forget it. Will it happen-succeed like that every where and every time, no, I don’t deal in such definitive schematics.
Well, you are very welcome to have such opinion in the instadoom realm, but please don’t school others on reality and its probabilities.
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/803578896184643584/3Ih81YkF.jpg
CTG:
Common sense will tell you something is wrong when Japan banned newspaper and anyone reporting on Fukushima. You can be jailed for that. So, why would that happen if it is “not an issue”? Doesn’t your common sense tells you something is not right.
The problem with reporting on Fukushima is that much of the media profits from sensationalizing and doom-mongering. It sells papers and captures viewers and clicks, and the advertisers love that.
In the case of Fukushima, however, because a lot of people living within 3 or 400 km of the plant, including in Tokyo, are understandably worried about the potential effects of radiation from the accident, and sensationalized and doom-laden journalism would be quite enough to cause a panic that could empty Tokyo and crash the Japanese and possibly the entire world economy.
Already, we have people internationally who won’t eat food from Japan because “it’s contaminated”, people in West Japan who won’t eat food from East Japan, people in East Japan who won’t eat food from Fukushima, and people from West Fukushima who won’t eat food from East Fukushima. We’ve had cases of people not wanting their son or daughter to marry someone from Fukushima because the person might be “Unclean!” or “genetically modified”.
And we have people doing a roaring trade in everything from geiger counters and iodine capsules to water-filtration devices and radiation-proof cladding ALONG THE US WEST COAST, that they claim will protect people against radiation from Fukushima. As you say, there are a lot of people who are not scientifically literate who will believe all sorts of claims and rumors. There are also lots of fear-mongers who profit from ratcheting up public anxiety and panic.
One of the responsibilities of government is to maintain calm and order so that the crazies don’t take over. The Japanese can’t afford to allow their country to turn into a huge insane asylum, as might well happen if the general public were to be fed endless variations of “Fukushima is catastrophic”. Regardless of the situation on the ground, and all the more so if things get critical, the preferred strategy is to keep calm and carry on.
Well, sure! Why not?
In this very blog, we have people posting maps showing lethal radiation on the US West Coast, without any timestamp or footnote! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! OMG! WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!
Too bad everyone on the West Coast of North America is dead from Fukushima radiation, or this blog would have several thousand more comments.
“We have nothing to fear, but fear itself.” — Winston Churchill, who didn’t listen to THE SKY IS FALLING! fearmongers of his day.
‘Worldofhanumanotg – after all these years that you are here, I think you did NO research or improve yourself on what you know’
That applies to a number of members who have been here on and off for years — including Jan…
They just blurt out the EXACT same Koombaya that they were blurting out years ago … they drone on and on… with their Koombaya…. facts don’t matter… logic doesn’t matter….
They learn NOTHING from this site. They absorb NOTHING. They add NOTHING.
White noise is more entertaining.
No, they’re not going to understand. Tulsa revival of the faithful. Buy more shotgun shells.
https://streamable.com/4occw
Put the death cult control freaks aside
I believe that the financial collapse will be rather rapid with the core adapting to something different. What that is I don’t know and I don’t think it can be predicted, only guessed at. That is because it is such a complex system. The JIT theory of rapid collapse makes sense but will it affect everyone equally? I don’t think that the apocalyptic vision of ctg and FE makes sense because humans are pretty resilient. We shall see. The endless name calling on this sight is pretty annoying. In the end, a long term prediction is just a guess. Might want to check with Guy McPherson on how that’s going.
Now, it’s not only about where the preponderance of the evidence comes from, as your opening statement has merit, but also as usual and could be clearly seen every day, how the “opposite site of the argument” is coming ahead in spreading venom, calling names, using kindergarten debate tactics etc..
So, in summary, not a typical rational debate player..
The goal is to drive off those who do not belong here
here is real life aping movies
https://youtu.be/gi1Ir04NfcY
this is Venezuela
https://youtu.be/3P4LUt0qcX8
this is mad max
But, but, it was organic!
The size of the capitalist financial bubble is fast approaching the size of the sun. When it pops, it will knock our planet out of its orbit…
what amount is due on a trillion dollar loan at zero percent interest?
I’m actually looking for such a loan, if there is a lender out there who sees this!
seriously, TBTB don’t want the system to go down…
they owe each other $200 trillion in debts…
but I’m sure they also hold assets of at least as much…
they won’t let trillions in derivatives knock out IC…
unless they make a big mistake like they almost did in 2008/2009…
and we haven’t forgotten how bad that Great Recession was…
but notice how they let a little air out of the bubble back then?
that’s how they will try to keep things going.
key word “try”…
Cheers!
Marc’s not dead you know? No, he just retired with his loot because he knew he’d run out of creativity and he really needed a quiet life away from all the paparazzi and the teeny boppers. He’s living in a gated community along with Marylyn, Elvis, Michael, John, Jim Morrison and Amy Winevat.
“Unless they make a big mistake like they almost did in 2008/2009…” – We reached limits to growth in 2008 … there was no mistake. It was inevitable. Growth is now impossible. All the old rules of economics no longer apply. Everything and the kitchen sink is being thrown at IC to goose growth yet nothing happens except contraction. Collapse is not far off.
no growth? so what?
The Collapse isn’t the inevitable result of no growth.
“…yet nothing happens except contraction. Collapse is not far off.”
yes, contraction. A century long series of yearly contractions on the average of one-half to 1%. By the way, that is not a prediction, just a guesstimate, or one possible future.
Anyway, you’re admitting that we have had almost a decade of no growth AND no collapse.
Nothing is set in stone that says more of these decades are not ahead of us. Again, not a prediction.
Cheers!
What he means is organic, or real growth, is now impossible, where the world economy could make more in profit from the debt raised to finance its development. The world’s central banks are now printing ever larger quantities of debt to keep the economy afloat, but the “profits” generated from the debt issued is with every passing year far less than what’s being raised.
Euphemistically this is known as “pushing on a string” and central banks are getting increasingly desperate to keep the momentum going. Note the graph, where you can see how CB’s really ramped up the debt from early last year when the tilt light almost came on.
http://media.peakprosperity.com/images/1_5-trillion-CB-2017-2017-06-09.jpg
In the end though it’s a losing game, unless the world economy starts putting on real and stellar growth again. The CB’s know this, otherwise they wouldn’t have added at least another $1.5 trillion in debt to the pot so far this year alone.
But that’s about as likely as week with two Tuesday’s, since the world is now saddled with huge amounts of debt that’s been piling up since even before the GFC struck that needs to be serviced, which even at ZIRP rates is still a stupendous amount of money, which is very growth unfriendly.
May I suggest you take a sabbatical and learn how the economy really works today, rather than waste everyone’s time here with your constant trolling?
just to add:
I think TBTB have learned a lesson from 2008/2009 and won’t make the same mistakes again…
of course, they could make different and bigger mistakes!
there’s always MOABS – Mother Of All Black Swans…
unpredictable by definition…
so let’s not make any predictions here…
Cheers!
Pathetic
the pathos!
yes, how pathetic are TBTB for trying to keep the system running so they can continue to reap the financial benefits.
Never mind those peons in peripheral countries!
hey, and thanks for agreeing with me! ha ha!
that doesn’t happen everyday!
oh, look!
The Collapse isn’t happening today!
Cheers!
oops oops oops… I hate making mistakes…
The Powers That Be – TPTB…
hey, they know who they are!
No, it is you who is pathetic – trying to start up your own little death cult with you at the head.
I can feel the cracks in your composure – the loss of control – the fear.
You only appeal to the weak, and pathetic wannabes who suck up to you for your tender strokes of approval. But you wilt under pressure of the logical constructs that demonstrate you are a fraud.
No, it is YOU who is pathetic –
see? I can play silly games too!
Death cult?
I don’t want to see The Collapse in my lifetime, and don’t want it in the lifetime of my children/grandchildren/nieces/nephews…
and I’m the one heading up a death cult?
now calm down… I know it’s frustrating to be watching and waiting for The Collapse and yet it just never shows up.
be honest – how long have you been waiting for The Collapse?
ps: no collapse today!
maybe tomorrow!
Cheers!
DF, I could have sworn you were FE sockpuppet.
“I think TBTB have learned a lesson from 2008/2009 and won’t make the same mistakes again…” What mistake was that exactly? The mistake of reaching limits to growth in a finite world?
Exactly Greg the so called “powers that be” have solved absolutely nothing…because simply put it is unsolvable…they cannot bend the laws of physics…they cannot replenish the conventional oil wells…paper shuffling won’t cut it next time around (in the very near future)…
TPTB don’t have to solve limits to growth…
energy resources are depleting slowly… ever so slowly… so very very slowly…
yes, declining resources = declining economy…
so what?
I’m sure they couldn’t care less about the citizens of failing countries…
but it’s obvious that they want the system to continue because it benefits them…
unfairly… UNFAIRLY!
but as we know, life is not fair…
Cheers!
We’re you alive David F. when 2008 happened? Have you read CTG’s comments as to what happened a few days after Lehman failed…did you read the article from Bloomberg I posted a few comments back dated Oct. 15, 2008…where cargo ships were not moving because of the credit freeze…and btw, with the Herculean efforts of the CBs we HAVE had growth in the last 8 years…there has been no degrowth…yet!
thank you for confirming my point…
2008 happened, and yet guess what didn’t happen?
The Collapse!
Almost a decade later, still no Collapse!
yes, the next “2008” could end BAU…
or not!
this could go on for decades…
no one knows the future…
Cheers!
By the way, I have cleared tens of containers before for my clients, worked in a high tech complex manufacturing facility (semiconductor), run my own business before. So, I know what I am talking because I have direct experience in it.
No. by the way, I am not FE. I know the climate has changed and it is for the worse. So, your generalization that “fast collapsers” are climate change deniers. Sorry. your are not right on that count.
worldofhanumanotg, Slow Paul, David F, Kurt, et al who subscribe to slow collapse
It would be great if you can tell me how your town (assume if you stay in a small town) would able to cope if 2008 type of financial crisis struck and the letters of credits are frozen? I know you may have all the preparations but how about your neighbours who do not plant their own food? What if the local banks are not functioning well like what happened in 2008? Reason being that the bullets that the central banks use – print money has been in place since 2008 and the effectiveness is getting less (diminished returns). So, when the events happened (like in 2008), they have basically nothing else to do. Printing a lot of money and give to Joe sixpack will only cause hyperinflation.
Can you tell me how your local stores function if the credit is broken? How do your town get your food from? Even if you are OK and well prepared, are you sure the rest of the won people are all OK and they will not cause havoc?
What makes you think that your grocery will still be stocked with food? What if one of the suppliers to your grocery store is bankrupt because of cash flow and the store cannot gets its product? What if it is not a supplier but the trucking company?
Are you sure you town can survive without any supplies coming in for 3 days? 5 days? I am not talking about electricity but just supplies?
How about the people who worked at the stores ? Where are they going to get the salary? What if the chain restaurant in your town could not get their supplies because the trucking company could not get a loan to meets its daily operating expenses and have to shut down? What happened to the employees of the chain restaurants in your town? They have no money and could not buy anything ?
As stated, if you did not work in the logistics line, you will never know this issue.
The problem that I have regularly is that people speak with confidence that they seem to know a lot about this and convince people that it is not a problem and guess what? People believe him. So, I am not surprised if you go out and tell many people about slow collapse and they believe you even if you did not do a single bit of research or if you do not have any experience in running your own business (how cash flow is so important to a business) or handling a complex logistics task before.
As has been stated many times before, your best resource is local community.
Real collapse has happened in war zones.
People are a lot smarter than rats. – in a nutshell.
Total permanent global collapse cannot be compared to war
Collapse – we’re all gonna die.
That is your message. You know what happened to the mad prophet of the airwaves in Network?
It is a Hard Sell.
https://photos1.blogger.com/img/187/1525/400/network-howard-beal.jpg
I am putting my money on rats having a better chance of surviving the coming collapse then us humans (if they can survive the nuclear meltdowns that is)….kind of similar as to when us hamsters survived the asteroid hit 65M years ago, while the dinosaurs disappeared…
Fine – does the Universe care?
Absolutely, categorically not…does not even know we exist…
Well, you see we need different points of view.
The case could be made that the Universe has a number of attributes. Caring doesn’t seem to be one of them, unless it does it through us.
more non seqiturs
Fine – does the Universe care?
Possibly, but the last rat I actually looked in the eye seemed a lot smarter and a lot more alive than most people in the mall. And it was right, I didn’t move fast enough to kill it! )
CTG-
Great points. You touch on something that really drove the futility of the situation home to me and that is no matter how well prepared an individual thinks they are they will simply be overwhelmed by those who are not.
The impossibility of convincing anyone there is even a problem makes doing anything about it impossible as well.
Exactly where I am. Tried for a while to point out the issues, but soon realised theres no gain or fun or point in blowing hot air. (or in being a lone ‘prepare’. Best to pull your head in, and use your knowledge to live the best of life that you can. No more road rage, no more listening to transgender issues on the radio, no more worrying about the next election. I have regrets, but they can’t be fixed. Seize the ‘weekend’ (currently about 4 days per week!!)
Theres a lot to be said for not being in the ‘I told you so camp’ as this ship goes down; in my humble opinion.
“No more road rage, no more listening to transgender issues on the radio, no more worrying about the next election”
+++++++++
Lastcall I am the same, I have so changed with this “knowledge”…I don’t get pissed off at anything…because the expression “Don’t sweat the small stuff, and it’s all small stuff” is truer than ever when you consider what we are facing soon…
Seize the ‘weekend’ (currently about 4 days per week!!)
That is is one of the key benefits that collapse awareness gives us. I always choose to work few hours, valuing free time more than money. I never worked more than 5 hours/day x 11m/y. In the last few years I reduced that to 4 h/day x 9 months/year. I have a shitty income (more than enough though), but loads of free time and no headaches at all.
Not getting worked up about politics and having no skin in the game is a great benefit of knowing the situation. I still work too much but I don’t want to travel and like spending time at home with friends and family.
One thing I would like would be to host an end of the world party here for all the doomsters.
If Eddy could bring the harem and ITEOTWAWKI bring a few Montreal girls it could be a good time;-)
Yes, it happened in 2008. You had an epiphany. Get over yourself.
You preach of your enlightened mind and defect genes that make you transcend the matrix, and take the red pill as it were. But if you were truly enlightened you would not predict the future so confidently. The author of this site has repeatedly stated that we don’t understand what will happen and how the timeline will play out. That is a good place to start discussions. Not “I know the truth and you are stewpid”.
Would it be too presumptuous to suggest that the author of this site knows full well how this ends… yet to placate the DelusisTANIS… she makes ambiguous statements….
It is very simple and very obvious.
When the financial system goes down — the power goes off — the shelves go empty — every company on the planet will stop — and you will be sitting at home in the dark — watching the pantry slowly empty.
How do you think that ends?
Wow 3000+ comments and we are not reaching 20 days. It used to be that we are lucky to break the 1000 comments mark. We have an exponential increase here… Anything has growth, like it or not, until
A few years ago, many people here are being “bashed” by Paul when it comes to renewals (solar, wind, etc). Does anyone realize that why since last year until now, no one talks about how good wind and solar is? None on this site at all? I think because many people realize that it is not working at all. How many people on OFW has mentioned that wind and solar does not work and they have been talking about it since 2011?
So, by extrapolating further, which type of collapse will it be? fast or slow?
For me, all along, I never thought about collapse at all until 2007/8. I worked in a factory. The system for letters of credit froze and our customer cannot pay us any money and we cannot pay our supplier. We were so strap for cash (i.e. cashflow is so important to a business) that everyone were very very scared. It happend all within 2 days after Lehmann because banks do not trust each other anymore. The bank in Malaysia (where I stay) do not trust the bank in UK as they are not sure how good their finances are and they say that they do not accept them. Instantly, all banks did the same and everything froze. I talked to many of my colleagues and they were literally crying because they have a family to feed, car loans, mortgages and some times extended family. The company was on the verge of shutting down because our customer could not and our supplier could not ship. They want cash of delivery. Which economy would function when I have to pay upfront for goods? The answer is “the economies of the early 1900s” where everything is local.
It was also a shock to me. What if tomorrow my company says that they could not get the money from our customers to pay us salary, suppliers, electricity and have to close down? The banks would not extend any credit to us because we were so screwed (no money coming in).
I looked around and it suddenly dawned upon me that we, as the whole world, due to excessive use of credit, globalization where my screw has to come from Japan and complex JIT (cash flow – who wants to stock parts for you?) as so fragile and precarious. We humans are so arrogant to think that “there will be no more recessions in my lifetime” that we fail to see the forest for the trees.
It took me another 3-4 years of constant research to know our predicament. I did not let down a single unanswered question. I questioned everything.
Is it a burden ? Not a single bit to know that my life will end pretty quickly and soon. Does my family know? Not a single bit and they do not even understand what I say. Do I tell them? No ignorance is bliss. I enjoy every waking moment of my life. Do I yearn for collapse ? No. Can I control it ?
There are many people here who have been on this site for so long but they do not take the effort to really do the research and understand fully. Question everything, believe no one.
To those slow collapse people – what have you done to justify your arguments when there were no research done? How much time have you spent reading up even on things that you don’t know. Do you know what is a Toggle PIK bond? Do you know what are CLO/CDO ? Do you know what are synthetic CDOs? I do know all of these terms but I read up again and again until I know.
I come from Malaysia. FE from Canada, Greg/Iteo from North America. Xabier from UK and there are many others who came to this conclusion independently without anyone tell us and all of us share the same “process” to know.
I’ve been studying this in depth since 2008 and I’ve come to the conclusion that the system is on life support and is not going to collapse.
It’s just breaking down in various ways. The key to understanding this: we waste tremendous amount of energy and materials. Not everything you see around you is needed in any meaningful way.
Outstanding conclusion. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion regardless it is correct or not. As long as you think your conclusion is right, then you are good !
That is an outstanding post…
Which will fly over the heads of the slow collapsers…. I suspect the reason they are stuck in the mud is because to accept what you have explained…. means suffering and death…
Some of us are able to deal with that…. some are not.
Hm, argumentation via the parade of the most JIT-global soaked countries examples, not our problem if you are extrapolating this on the rest of the world with diverse level of integrated infrastructure and supply lines..
In terms of PV/wind I do write occasionally on the topic, but in the sense of “mere” extenders for semi off grid purposes and only in case you are in position to blow the extra money on it or in need of large distance grid connection investment..
So, again wrong on all your stereotyping accounts as usual.
Based on your total lack of understanding of even the most basic concepts… I wonder how you make it through a day…
Perhaps you could give us a brief run down of what a day in the life of WOH looks like…
I really am curious
From a guy who supposedly researched spent fuel pond question for “thousands hours” but as demonstrated on this very forum never heard about nuclear industry very basics, then usually angrily reacting by posting silly pictures, it’s indeed very telling..
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/49/46/66/494666afcbe5c47501cdd5b2c1fec79c.jpg
worldofhanumanotg – Did you skip my question on what background you have? I have asked the same question 1-2 years ago but still no answer. I don’t expect someone who has no knowledge of physics to be able to comprehend fully the gravity of the situation. However, I do expect that if that some has NO knowledge of that field to just keep quiet and learn.
How is that relevant for fact based debate in which you both (+ Eddy) clearly demonstrated so far very shallow and selected bias knowledge about that particular industry and its related complexities against what I brought to the table over here.
Again, just repeating for those perhaps lazy enough to list in pages for longer rebuttals, you both showed repeatedly almost zero knowledge about the difference between onsite temporary “wet storage” of spent fuel vs. several ways of long term storage in various countries (“permanent”), you apparently never heard about recycling used spent fuel on industrial scale so far, which does exist now, needs wider adoption if we consider the global fleet of reactors in use. I clearly stressed if there is no time – very rapid dislocation scenario – it could be too late for that, but that’s only one probability of many.
Your response to crisis management and prioritization was also beyond weak, gov structures of whatever nature (gov-mil) or revolutionary junta, always have high degree of self perseverance present, hence the likely hood resources might be deployed for few years (<<10yrs) to let spent fuel cool enough before dropping into impromptu permanent storage..
And many other valid points made in other longer responses.
In polite circles using "argumentum ad hominem / ad personam " ends any respect immediately and closes up any seriousness consideration to the other party.. As many
confirmed and posted about on this very forum this ship apparently sailed for your bunch very long ago. Not mentioning the classic confirmation of this situation as one of the latest factual rebuttals was answered by "Eddy" with panicky attack of anger with the "f-word".
https://fthmb.tqn.com/ayRW9YrhTQGnOEXgWacHC8HDa50=/768×0/filters:no_upscale()/about/GettyImages-972322731-569d85223df78cafda9d51de.jpg
Thank you for excellently proving the point of my post, .. again.
So, apparently we won the debate on this subject, good to know.
http://www.mdjunction.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/moron.gif
You do know … that nobody respects your intellect here…. you are looked upon as a village id iot…
Actually you are not even that … a village id iot knows he is an id iot…. and attempts to redeem himself by being funny…
Can you try to amuse us at at least?
Until then you are just an id-iot … if you want to be promoted…. you need to make us laugh
Worldofhamumanotg- congrats. Exactly the same comment I got the last time. Perfect match. I might think you are not human but probably an internet chat bot. You just cannot present your case coherently. Anyway nice chatting with you. I just caught you saying exactly the same canned response. That is probably why you are the only one here who keeps on splurting out words, grammatically correct but make no sense and you don’t leave even when people bashed you so hard. Any real humans would be pissed off and leave but not you. Say hi to your creator. Nice AI you have thete but not perfect
I wonder what it is like to be du,,mb — but not realize it….. World…. fill us in….
Tell me if you have worked in logistics before…. Look around you… how many items cannot be made locally. how many types of food are produced locally. How many types of goods/items you can get locally. Tell me how many people have mortgages and work in industries that can “die” when the supply chain breaks? Where do they get the money to pay for their food.
I am still pretty shock that people do not understand how fragile our supply chain in. How can I compare the supply chain in ancient Greece (from you, worldofhanumanotg of course) where amphorae of wine are sent out for exports. My goodness, when I read that comment of yours, I was totally blinded by the fact that the Greeks are self sufficient in food. These items are luxury items. They don’t need that wine or spice or some exotic food to survive. However, you need to buy food from your local grocery store (where almost 99% of the people of this world do). how much food does your grocery shop carry? Oh my goodness… you can even compare ancient Greece to modern day supply chain.
I think you are probably have not worked in those lines before and could not even bother to read up, do some research on that topic before you give your comments… Goodness…
I have no doubt that what you say is true for many people.
Where I have trouble is when the doomsters insist this is true of all people, and even if it weren’t, there’s no way one could prepare to be in the group that it is not true of, and even if one could, someone else would take it away from you. (Huh? Where did they come from? I thought everyone was dead!) And even if they could, you could not defend yourself. And even if you could, the banks would take your land. (Huh? Where did they come from? I thought the financial system had collapsed!). And even if the banks don’t take your land, Japan’s nuclear plants would get you. (THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!) And even if they didn’t, it’s just no use living in a world without air travel and ski trips, SO YOU MIGHT JUST AS WELL DIE! And, of course, you’re an ignorant fool if you question any of that.
I live a prefect life. Do I worry about the future? Nah…. If my children want to have ice cream, let us go. If they want to go having fun, go… if they want to play in the puddle.. go. If I want to holiday, I go.
The mentality that people have is that “insta-doomers” are all pessimist and that the sky is falling. Unfortunately, for those here on OFW, with very diverse background, culture and education, we enjoy every day of our life. I have never been “so free” before in my life. I woke up everyday and say to myself. Wow! I am alive today. Let us do something great today. Tomorrow, I wake up, wow! I am still alive today, let us have a great day. Contrary, we are not depressed or worried.
What me worry? Nah… must be some other other….
that is why I say in a few posts earlier – there could possibly be only 70 people worldwide that has this genetic defects that allow them to “see the big picture”. We are the abnormal people. There are few others earlier like couple of hundreds of years ago but unfortunately, he is a few hundred years ahead of his time.
+++++++++
Exactly CTG, I am as happy as ever and savour every single day that BAU is in place…and I am at peace with what is heading our way….until then:
Realizing that when collapse hits — we all die — is a blessing…
Instead of wasting my time building raised gardens, making compost, stockpiling stuff from Wallys World… worrying about how I would feed my family… buying more guns and ammo … wondering about what to do when neighbours came begging for food…
I now spend my days enjoying life…. I pretty much only do things that I want to do…. not much in the way of compromising….
Doom Hedonism. Try it.
Imagine waking up every morning and worrying about the future… worrying about ‘how to cope’ … how to survive…
I used to do that… it was somewhat stressful…
Concluding that there is no surviving … is a good thing… because it makes you realize that no matter what you do — you will not survive…..
So why bother trying?
It is not a matter of giving up — it is a matter of understanding the situation — and recognizing there is a zero chance of staying alive no matter how hard you fight.
It’s like being handed boxing gloves and told this is who you have to fight in a month’s time — to the death.
Do you start training? Or do you spend the month drinking wine, eating good food, and enjoying yourself — knowing that the first punch will be the end of you
http://i.pipec.ru/video_shot/770892192v45669804.jpg
https://mark.trademarkia.com/logo-images/taro-pharmaceuticals-usa/resistance-is-futile-78712205.jpg
And those who “see the big picture” and insist on trying to do something about it? Are we “genetically defective,” too?
I don’t think genetics have anything to do with it. I look around at my extended family, and they all seem normal, and think I’m an extreme outlier.
Good question
Is a DelusiSTANI a genetically defective human…. or a completely different species that does not accept or value logic facts and common sense…
If the latter then there is nothing defective about you — it is just that your idea of ‘normal’ is different from ours.
I think that sums up about 50000 comments in the last two years posts.
worldofhanumanotg – in my part of the world, we have a saying (proverb). It says “It is those who ate chillies will feel hot in the throat”. In English, it means those who did something wrong are the ones who will feel the heat.
You can continue to comment a lot of stuff that you have no knowledge or experience in but ultimately, it will be easily exposed by those who have experience or knowledge in.
CTG
And this extraordinary global web of inter-connectedness is what distinguishes us from all previous civilisations: as you say, it took just 48 hrs for your factory to be on the edge of ruin, and the workers on the point of starvation/eviction – under Rome, it took a week or more before news of even a major battle and loss of an Emperor reached the centre, and that wouldn’t do a thing to disturb the normal flow of trade, mining, manufacturing and
the routine of agriculture.
Far too sophisticated; far too responsive; far too fragile. Like putting all one’s hopes in a child’s balloon not popping………
Like you, 2008 was the moment that made me sit up: I almost lost everything as customers ceased trading, and so I became determined to understand how things worked, globally, in order to prepare mentally and physically for any recurrence and not get caught napping.
Being unable to replace things like the heating system in my house as it gradually broke down also woke me up to the level of comfort I had taken for granted having grown up in the system,and the dependence of complex systems on credit and availability of parts (no credit, no parts for you!)
When I could finally afford to do so, it was as good as coming into millions!
Similar experience… a real eye-opener….
The other thing that surprised me was what 2008 revealed about human nature: people blamed ME for the fact that my customer base suddenly disintegrated!
People who didn’t grasp what was going on…. Hello, you can’t sell to customers who vanish overnight!
Which also leads me to suggest it’s best not to talk about Collapse, because if it hits, you will quite likely blamed for, in some way, ‘willing’ it to happen, not hailed as a far-seeing genius who knows what is what. ‘Bringer of bad news’, and all of that…….
Irrationality can only grow -the most dangerous force. Headlines in the press every day confirm this:look at what people assert and believe: things that a moment’s reflection would lead one to dismiss.
Not least because rational capacity usually declines with repeated stress-impacts.
It is quite possible that in periods of great stress, the majority of people will be quite simply off their heads.
And after the collapse, it will probably be better not to move among the madmen screaming at them, “I warned you this would happen! I warned you!”
These are excellent points. Is there some way to fix it so that, although we’re here, the mad people can’t see us?
Cheer up, you’ll all be dead soon.
Wow great post. 😎
one day—doomsters will run out of comments
At least original ones…
Nah. We can always recycle ’em.
It’s not what you don’t know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you know for certain that just ain’t so.
I rarely visit OFW these days. There are so many posters absolutely certain of what will happen, and none seem capable of putting a reasoned arguement together. But, of course, it is possible that I am mistaken. 🙂
Oh, I think wind and solar are FANTASTIC! Just not for the reasons everyone else seems to think.
From a cash flow perspective, they can be great for individuals. But are they going to “save Business As Usual?” Absolutely not.
I think things are much more nuanced than that. Or add another dimension: partial collapse versus absolute collapse.
Whether it’s fast or slow is irrelevant if you haven’t considered if it’s partial or absolute.
The “absolutists” (for want of a better name) are convinced that the best you can do is get under a desk, put your head between your legs, and kiss your butt goodbye.
But there are a fair number of people who would hardly notice an Orlov-2 Collapse (collapse of financial and credit systems). A smaller number would not even notice an Orlov-3 event (collapse of government).
The “absolutists” don’t even consider the possibility of “stages of collapse,” so it’s no use talking to them.
There’s plenty of research! Ecologists, anthropologists and archeologists have been studying collapse for a long time! But the “absolutists” are also “techno-human exceptionalists,” who claim we are so different from anything that has ever existed that we get “new rules.”
I prefer the tried-and-true old rules. Mal-adapted organisms die. Well-adapted ones survive, to pass their coping mechanisms on to others. A lot of people will die. Some will survive, and even thrive. Nature abhors a vacuum. Be ready to fill the void!
Those are all financial terms. They have all been invented in the past 30 years. (I worked on their invention at Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan!)
When new-fangled stuff goes away, timeless stuff remains. Do you understand Panarchy Theory?
Do you know the Krebbs Cycle? Do you know Lovelock’s Islands Theory? Can you dress a deer? Can you take one down with a crossbow you built?
Knowing all there is to know about modern day finances is a specialist’s job. Getting through the bottleneck will be a generalist’s job.
Have you read this? If so which parts of it don’t you understand? Which parts do you disagree with?
http://www.feasta.org/2012/06/17/trade-off-financial-system-supply-chain-cross-contagion-a-study-in-global-systemic-collapse/
Great explanation, I tried this avenue already to no avail.
My guess, and increasingly corroborated by instadoom phraseology and their “experience” bits spilled here and there, simply they appear too soaked in the current system. It’s almost like overspecialization dead end, perhaps just psycho-defensive position, if the new (uglier) incoming reality threatens them, lets all die instantly, end of story.
Correct, but by the same token, I think many rural people mistakenly believe they could get through a collapse, because they know how to grow a thousand acres of wheat, using diesel machinery.
I also don’t hold much hope for vegetable gardeners. Vegetables are the “low hanging fruit” of self-sufficiency. We grow 250-500 kg of tomatoes each year. It isn’t rocket science.
But we chose to focus on high-quality protein and fat, first. We also produce 1,500-2,000 kg of milk, and nearly 4,000 eggs each year. This takes a lot more work to ensure. You can live longer off of milk and eggs than you can tomatoes!
Next, we’re focusing on carbs, but trying to use perennials, rather than annual grains. That’s a tough nut to crack. 🙂
Thanks for the update, large y on y swings for perennials must be expected though.
But running multiple systems means at least some production in given season almost no matter what, but that’s likely old vest to you.. you live by it apparently already..
There’s always more to learn! But we take a long-term view of every decision.
Time to start The Great Adventure — throw BAU in front of a train…
And:
http://centralcityaustin.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/unplug_page_logo.jpg
Come on Jan — try it for a month — then come and report on your Great Adventure Lite.
worldofhanumanotg – it is OK. I am not arguing with you. No point because you do not have the capability to piece all the information to form a big picture. It is “we” who have this genetic defect that cause us to see the big picture. I have no interest in arguing with you because you can never see it. It is like you have a bad case of colour blindness. No matter how much I tell what red colour is, you will never know. Get it?
They Want to Put Nano-Chips into Currency So they can track every note
Believe it or not, Australia has a Black Economy Taskforce that hunts down citizens in every possible way. They look at where they send their kids to school and then inquire at the school who pays the bills and how. They are using technology to hack people’s phones of anyone suspected of hiding money to get all their messages and emails as well as where they call overseas. Their own website says:
The Black Economy Taskforce has been established to develop an innovative, forward-looking whole-of-government policy response to combat the black economy in Australia, recognising that these issues cannot be tackled by traditional tax enforcement measures alone.
The black economy refers to people who operate entirely outside the tax and regulatory system or who are known to the authorities but do not correctly report their tax obligations.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/they-want-to-put-nano-chips-into-currency-so-they-can-track-every-note/
‘No one expects the Black Economy Taskforce! Our three secret weapons are……’
I had a tax inspector call once.
I asked him to take his shoes off, as it was ‘the rule of the house’ (made up on the spur of the moment!).
No one can bully you in their socks….. 🙂
Everyday some news about going cashless, every single day it seems…
Visa to offer restaurants $10,000 if they stop accepting cash
They’re calling it the “The Visa Cashless Challenge.”
The plan is to convince small business restaurants, cafés and food trucks to stop accepting cash, forcing customers to pay with credit cards or digital payments.
“Visa will be awarding up to $500,000 to 50 eligible US-based small business food service owners who commit to joining the 100% cashless quest,” the credit card company wrote in a press release.
If a restaurant opts in, it’ll get a $10,000 gift from Visa to help pay for technology upgrades, the company said. Those tech upgrades could mean installing platforms that that accept payments from phones, smart watches or other devices.
http://kfor.com/2017/07/14/visa-to-offer-restaurants-10000-if-they-stop-accepting-cash/
and in Western Canada huge push by a telecom to fiber optic everything.
Steven is in over his head, and he is one of the smart ones.
When are we going to get rid of these dumb rich white boys?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/steven-mnuchin-trumps-treasury-secretary-is-hurtling-toward-his-first-fiasco/2017/07/17/28c0ecf8-5da9-11e7-9b7d-14576dc0f39d_story.html?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.394eeee329b3
I don’t think we plebs will get to vote on that one. Steven was born into the New Establishment Aristocracy with the proverbial silver spoon in his mouth, went to all the best schools, joined Skull & Bones, and investment banker-ed his way to a $300 million (some say $400 million) fortune. He’s on a fast track to a seat at the El-ders high table—or was—until he joined Team Trump.
Yeah, well if the United States Secretary of the Treasury produced this movie, collapse is indeed at hand-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV6S2COhVuM
CHIPS, get it?
Peak alert! Peak alert! 3050 comments!!
Are you crazy, folks? This growth rate is glaringly unsustainable, and it can only mean one thing: the end is near!!!!!!!
http://lindaboothsweeney.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/photo.jpg
(There are not enough energy cheetos to fill the board of our aspirations. Sniff-sniff)
or…
it could mean that some opposition to Fast Collapsers has risen up…
I am impressed by those of you who are avidly defending your position!
It very well may be HUBRIS to claim to know the future…
but who am I to say that?
March on, Fast Collapsers…
hey, what’s your “official” name?
keep up the good work!
and hey, not The Collapse today!
not tomorrow either!
sounds good, eh?
Cheers!
You would have to stretch the generally accepted traditional and modern definitions of HUBRIS well beyond breaking point in order to apply it to stubbornly held opinions—even about the future.
To claim to know the future is a sign of OVERCONFIDENCE. While to attempt to anticipate what the future is likely to bring is a sign of INTELLIGENCE.
A rough guide to assessing HUBRIS is that it consists of thoughts, attitudes, words and deeds that are likely to invite the attentions of NEMESIS.
http://img.picturequotes.com/2/183/182796/hubris-calls-for-nemesis-and-in-one-form-or-another-its-going-to-get-it-not-as-a-punishment-from-quote-1.jpg
By the way, the philosopher Mary Midgley was Richard Dawkins’s long-term Nemesis. She clobbered his ideas about selfish genes mercilessly back in the 1980s and 90s.
It very well may be HUBRIS to claim to know the future…
Predicting what will happen is too easy. Difficult is to predict when. You do not have to be a fortune teller, you just have the ability (not so common indeed) to face the facts. Example: Mr. X is man, men are mortal, then X will die someday. No prediction here, just logic.
Or, Mr.X has lung cancer with metastasis everywhere, he is in a hospital bed, he barely eats, he uses a respirator to breath. I don’t want to be a cassandra, but I predict he can not last two more years.
Notwithstanding I would not risk a prediction about the exact day Mr. X is going to die. That nobody knows. The only thing we can say is: it will be, alas, too soon.
yes.
Planets have finite energy resources.
Earth is a planet.
Inhabitants of Earth are burning up these finite energy resources to increase wealth.
Ergo, at some point in the future, they will have almost none left and will be mostly in poverty.
yes, easier to predict what will happen.
probably hubris to predict when.
but hey, why not?
I predict near universal poverty by the year 2100.
Cheers!
Can you lay out some details of how a slow collapse would play out?
Very easy to just say — collapse will be slow — because I say it will…
“There are people who can believe anything they wish. What lucky creatures!”
“Whenever he was required to use his reason he felt like someone who had always used his right hand but was now required to do something with his left.”
G.C. Lichtenberg
DelusiSTANIS have poured in … so if we eliminate the fake/useless comments — we’d be closer to 1500
And if we eliminate the responses to fake/useless comments, we’d be down to three digits. Half the fun would be gone.
I suppose there is some entertainment value in kicking DelusiSTANIS in the teeth….
The thing is…
They are so f789ing stewpid — so thick — so mentally re-tarded…. that no matter how hard you kick them… they just keep coming back for more…
Thing is preaching to the choir gets old, real quick.
Some of the best arguments I’ve seen, in many different venues, arise from the dressing down of nincompoops.
It’s just the way it is.
You’re quite right. The nincompoops, the f789ing stewpid and the trolls get a dressing down. Nine times out of ten they don’t even notice or comprehend what’s happened, but often the onlookers get to learn something.
The mentally retarded… are not aware of their mental retardedness… even if you tell them about it
What do you want? A medal?
http://orig05.deviantart.net/e552/f/2013/205/7/8/muttleys_medal_by_lonewarrior20-d6eybtc.jpg
Proverbs 27:22 Even if you pound a fool with a pestle
Like crushed grain in a mortar,
His foolishness will not leave him.
You have missed the point.
And you are ponderous without the gravity.
Try some wit and show your inner light!
http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/a0/a0e1c8b7b07e809068f85b84bbd3d9606893360c14adf95b9db4a3796a887277.jpg
non sequitur
Don’t despair on humanity.
“If a judicious man can become a fool after a blow, I do not see why a fool could not turn smart by the same process.”
C.G. Lichtenberg.
Just a pun.
“Try some wit and show your inner light!,” you instructed.
“And you are ponderous without the gravity,” you insisted.
https://youtu.be/z4uivPpzCGo
off-balance not funny
I can imagine that if a fool read that comment — he would find it …. not funny at all.
Those are cheerios.
all fossil commenters, they are non renewable
I know you only charge $1 for “end of more” but if you really want to supplement your income just change each sentence of that book into its opposite and charge $50. Call it the “End of Scarcity” (probably already taken) Ca-Ching! Your welcome. I’ll take just a 10% cut.
lol
you are absolutely right
if you compare my book ratings and sales with those promising ”infinity of prosperity” the mob-certainties are very clear
Haha timl2k11, that book has already been written…too late Norman!
https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Future-Better-Than-Think/dp/145161683X
You’re right! I do not understand how I made this mistake, since I have a Phd in Fast-foodness. Embarassing.
To those on here that say Greece has collapsed, I just want to set the record straight…Greece has NOT collapsed!! On an INDIVIDUAL basis many Greeks HAVE collapsed…but the country itself has NOT!
Take it from someone who goes there every single year…record tourists, gas stations full, grocery stores fully stocked, stores as well (the ones still open that is)…you still have a fully functioning country…
Basically the point I am trying to make is do not mistake individual collapse (of which MANY Greeks have) with full blown country collapse….
The “fat lady” is still on the scales…..do – ray – me…..she will gargle and begin singing in due time.
okay, fair enough…
but I do want to thank you for generally affirming some of my main points…
countries fall into “degrowth” and then recover somewhat…
isolated entities “collapse” but rarely the “whole”…
see? individual Greeks but not all of Greece…
and as I have been saying, individual countries but not the whole world…
Iraq, Ukraine, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Venezuela… Brazil next?
down turns for all, and it’s likely that all will recover some of their loss…
this pattern could go on for decades…
not a prediction, by the way…
hey, not The Collapse today!
Cheers!
Collapse = no electricity + no petrol
I am unaware of any country that has collapsed
“Collapse = no electricity + no petrol” – I agree. And I would add that electricity and petrol take BAU to obtain. And BAU needs electriciy and petrol to function. It is a symbiosis.
More like a trap. You can’t win. You can’t break even and you can’t get out of the game.
This is why slow collapses believe in slow collapse even though there is no factual basis to support this belief — because they understand that fast collapse is a trap — an inescapable trap — and they will lose all hope if they acknowledge collapse will be fast
https://howlingforjustice.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/trapped-wolf-by-tim-woody.jpg
btw – OJ Simpson is free at last free at last…. I wonder if he is going to Disney Land
Yes, this is important.
I’m telling you people, the same thing is true in Texas, which is heavily sprawled and oil dependent. So far only bits and pieces of breakdown. Basically everything functions just fine, the stocks are full and people are driving everywhere.
Very true: all higher level commercial and state structures are still in place and functioning: therefore, it is not Collapse.
Greece shows just how a country can cohere with poor conditions for many – and growing – numbers of people.
Greatly increased (probably permanent) poverty, malnutrition, disease and loss of hope do not equal Collapse. Same as in Argentina.
when the Romans left Britain in 410 AD—people didnt look out of their windows next day and say
“the world as we know it has collapsed”
collapse is seen through the rear view mirror of history—the time factor can vary enormously.
For a century after the Romans left, people still clung to their wreckage, then as it became obvious they weren’t coming back, Roman towns got robbed and built over to make new settlements, no doubt with lots of trauma to individuals.
But whatever happened life could not go faster than a walking pace. Nobody expected life to be otherwise.
which is how we differ—we expect to have everything on the instant, because our industrial systems make it happen–in other words we expect to go on consuming, ad infinitum.
when our collapse comes we will be unable to deal with the fact that we can no longer have instant food transport and all round gratification
As expected, Indian reality has defeated the “cashless payment” experiment.
The AP Government has decided to cancel the cashless system and restore cash transactions at ration shops. Causes for the failure of the cashless system include slow internet facilities, difficulties in connecting to the server, repeated failure of the iris and fingerprint recognition system, and the failure of transactions. The hassle involved has made the system non-viable for traders. In many shops, the ePose machines have already been kept aside and a majority of the sales are conducted via cash transactions.
After demonetisation, the AP government had introduced the Aadhaar-enabled Public Distri-bution System (AePDS) under which ration cards were linked to the bank accounts of ration card-holders. There are 1,38,67,107 ration card-holders across the 13 districts of AP; of these, the iris’ of 76,412 cardholders have successfully been scanned in the month of July, while the iris scans of 85,038 persons have failed.
Similarly, the fingerprint scans of 16,03,494 cardholders have failed. Hundreds of complaints about the improper functioning of ePos machines and the failure of online transactions have been filed.
B. Gopalam says that it takes ration card-holders at least two to three days every month to get ration due to technical problems in the cashless system. He says that often the connection with the server gets severed and is not restored for hours. He adds that despite there being money in the bank, the ePos machines often reject transactions citing insufficient funds, and people are left without ration. He welcomed the government’s decision to cancel the cashless system and asks them never to repeat such a horrific experiment.
Ration dealers who have faced difficulties for the past few months are also happy to return to cash transactions. They say that though the intention of the cashless system was good, it failed because of technical glitches.
http://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/150717/cashless-transactions-a-thing-of-past-in-ap.html
Tim Groves
As expected?
No, I doubt that very much.
This was just a trial run. There is no question that this is exactly where the elites want to take us with the final insult being the product stamped with its own UPC code. I foresee a coming day where someone is going to do the unthinkable and that is redistribute the wealth of the entire world. He’ll pull off the greatest Robin Hood that history has ever seen. When that occurs it will be relatively easy to implement fully this final cashless payment system and with that the fulfillment {Daniel 11:36} of a demigod and when that occurs oil will be the last of anyone’s problem.
You could be right, Jerry, about the plans of the elites, and I suspect you are.
However, I for one have been expecting India’s “diversity of patterns” to defeat straightforward attempts at “demonetization”.
https://youtu.be/xKOh9DfQBgU
jerry -Do yourself a favor and get some mental help. If not for your own sake for your families.
Tim Groves says:
July 18, 2017 at 6:35 pm
Hey Tim, got a point to share? Then put your money where your mouth is. Show me where I’m wrong – exactly. Otherwise, go f#ck yourself.
I agree with 90% of things you say about our common global predicament, psile. But often I take offense at the way you choose to express yourself. In fact, it grates on me when you insult other people who you disagree with—as you’ve just done with Artleads.
When Eddy puts people down, he does it with aplomb and panache an without a shred of malice. But when you do it, what sometimes comes across is a clear intention to hurt the feelings of the other person. It’s not nice, it’s not decent, it’s petty-minded, it borders on bullying, and it’s offensive. So if you weren’t aware of that before, you should be now.
Artleads is too gentle and generous a spirit to call you on it, but the way you addressed Artleads was hurtful, and Artleads doesn’t have the sort of thick skin that you have. If you don’t make comments designed to hurt other people, then I can guarantee I won’t make comments designed to get under your skin. And if I’ve said something that upsets you, I can give a 99.97% guarantee that it’s all your fault.
Hey Tim, we’re all grown ups here. Fair enough. Artleads, my apologies.
I tell you what. I promise to tone down the vitriol, if boneheads agree to stop posting stupid stuff all the time. Ok?
“‘Cause arguing with Psile is like administering medicine to the dead”
This got a chuckle out of me. When your brains get misplaces, a little laugh can lift your spirits. 🙂 Best to you.
Hmmm… I’m trying to be a bully …. am I coming across as weak…?
Maybe that’s why the DelusiSTANIS are sticking around….
A bully..?. you…?
Only from the pulpit.
http://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-yes-haven-most-of-us-enjoy-preaching-and-ive-got-such-a-bully-pulpit-theodore-roosevelt-106-9-0984.jpg
the word bully has a different meaning in this context
NOUN
North American
A public office or position of authority that provides its occupant with an opportunity to speak out on any issue.
‘he could use the presidency as a bully pulpit to bring out the best in civic life’
(OED)
Tim-
I just had to show you this http://jennifermarohasy.com/2017/07/bureau-still-limiting-cooling-minus-10-degrees/
Thanks, Joe.
There’s so much fakery going on in so many fields—from the stock market to academia to TV news to the carbon footprint of the new Tesla—and I’ve even got my doubts about the Obama birth certificate? And the fakers seem confident that they can get away with it. But really, if you can’t trust your local meteorologist, who can you trust?
Fakery, fraud, corruption, whatever you want to call it, s definitely a problem. I guess it could be part of pollution in the graphs of Limits To Growth. And like pollution, It should subtract from GDP.
When the numbers don’t support the story — change them!
I am surprised they didn’t swap the – for a +
A friend has a big sheep station north of Melbourne — he says the winter has been brutal….
Exciting!
Average Americans Can No Longer Afford Average New Cars
http://cdn.importantmedia.org/gas2/uploads/2017/07/17150501/BMW-factory.jpg
According to a new study by Bankrate.com. It finds that people living in 24 of the 25 largest metropolitan areas in the US cannot afford the average price of new cars, which was $33,000 in May according to Kelly Blue Book. In six of those cities, people struggle to afford cars cost half that much…
Only in Washington, DC, where the median income is over $100,000, are people able to afford a new car. But the statistics for the nation’s capitol are wildly skewed by all the millionaires in Congress and the $1,000 an hour lobbyists who grease the wheels of democracy…
“This issue of affordability isn’t just about the price of cars. It’s about the stagnation of wages,” Bell said. “Car costs are not rising all that quickly over time, but things like health care and college costs are going up and wages aren’t [keeping up]. Budgets are being stretched.”…
Capitalism assumes constant growth — a model that is inherently unsustainable. Real wages for workers have been falling slowly but surely in America for 40 years. The cost of living continues its upward climb while globalization forces American workers to compete with the low paid labor in other parts of the world.
Car makers are subsidizing sales with low interest rates and extended term loans. On some high end models, it is now possible to get loans that extend out to 96 months or more. But people seldom keep a car that long, which means they find themselves owing more than their car is worth when it comes time to go car shopping again. It’s a vicious circle that is not likely to end well for manufacturers or consumers.
For the mathematically challenged, deluded and plain stupid who infest this site. You know who you are, you post your nonsensical bleating here often enough, without a shred of evidence to support them, except to point out how great the scenery in the rear-view mirror looked.
Staving Off the Coming Global Collapse
https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/07/16/960x640xTokyoSprawl.jpg.pagespeed.ic.kWuUVxn3kI.webp
Tokyo
Humans have a virtually unlimited capacity for self-delusion, even when self-preservation is at stake.
The scariest example is the simplistic, growth-oriented, market-based economic thinking that is all but running the world today. Prevailing neoliberal economic models make no useful reference to the dynamics of the ecosystems or social systems with which the economy interacts in the real world.
Consider economists’ (and therefore society’s) near-universal obsession with continuous economic growth on a finite planet. A recent ringing example is Kaushik Basu’s glowing prediction that “in 50 years, the world economy is likely (though not guaranteed) (Ha, ha. You don’t say bub) to be thriving, with global GDP growing by as much as 20 per cent per year, and income and consumption doubling every four years or so.”
Jan… World… David….Ed… I hope you are paying attention….
Positive thinking and optimism is always what fuels overpopulation, overshoot, energy and resource depletion, annihilation of plant and animal species, biosphere destruction, war, religion, and every single financial crisis. This type of thinking, that everything is going to turn out okay so we can do as we want, is simply the most dangerous mindset on the planet.
What does that even mean??? By the way, overall, people are dumber. On the other hand, there are more smart people than ever. But, history is guided by just a few extremely smart people. We need one of those now. But mostly, we need a lot less people. Around 2 billion total for the planet. How to get there? Hmmmmmmm.
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
“The money that went to the USSR stopped going to the USSR. It therefore collapsed.”
So was this a cashflow issue or a wealth issue?
On per capia basis, who is wealthier? US, Russia?
Other than consumption of resources, is there a reason to send men into space?
.
Over that period time from the price collapse of oil, who has more wealth now, England, Russia. As I recall, England pumped as fast as they could at $10/barrel.
Measured in barrels per capita who is wealthier, Russia, England, USA?
On a time based series, which countries generated the greatest cashflow from the oil wealth per barrel sold?
Did everyone do poorly during the dark ages? I don’t have a clue to that one and, yes, it is just easier to ask here than to Google and much more informative to see how the questions are answered.
Dennis L.
Europe did. The rest of the world barely noticed.
In Central America, the Maya were flourishing, as were the Chacoans. This was the Golden Age of Korea, culminating in the invention of the world’s most modern transcription system, and the only one specifically commissioned to a council of scholars by a government. Several prosperous Chinese dynasties came and went, culminating in the famous Ming dynasty.
Thank you, very nice.
Dennis L.
That doesn’t mean I think such disparity is possible with a tightly coupled global economy! During the Dark Ages, separate geographic regions were fairly isolated. There was some trade for the nobility, but you didn’t see items abroad in every household, as you do today, when the poorest person in an industrial country probably has possessions from a a half-dozen other countries.
Panarchy theory says that, as coupling and resource utilization increase, a system enters the omega state, where it is teetering on collapse back to the low-energy, low-connectedness alpha state.
http://a.static.trunity.net/files/113201_113300/113284/250px-3D_of_resilience_unravels_the_twist.gif
This was the link to panarchy that I glanced through. In table 8 at the top of the article, the first row (on top) was about the clearest to grasp (though not very clear!) that it got. All systems are part of other systems, I suppose would be a gross simplification of it. It’s very much along the lines that I intuit but can’t think clearly through.
http://www.transformativeinquiry.ca/TIbook/c8/c8/c8s2.html
That is a nice article that I must find time to digest fully. But it appears to be relating Panarchy to teaching, primarily.
That’s the lovely, infuriating thing about Panarchy — it can be related to anything! Somewhat similar to Permaculture in that regard, it tends to make people dismissive of it.
But I guess something that purports to rule (archy) everything (pan) from nuclear transmutation to the evolution of galaxy clusters would tend to draw ire.
Make ‘Merika Smart Again?
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ixp-XZRIB3U/WW1ECvLRbcI/AAAAAAAAwqQ/JEutQ5TmSgoW0aRQ07J5VeCzdf8XNW7-ACLcBGAs/s640/baby_trump.jpg
Remember when kids still respected the President’s name?
https://youtu.be/4LXBI5fPics
You know Tim, patriotism is not one of my strong suits.
If fact, I’ve been CS gassed on three continents.
‘Dark Ages’ specifically and properly only refers to Europe, and the situation after the collapse of Western Rome, and to no other region.
As to how well people there did: if government was strong and reasonable, not bad at all, although no luxuries from the East of course.
But if there was weak government and anarchy, or the ruler raised taxes that crushed you – Hell on earth! In England at one point, the king ordered all doors to be removed from houses in order to aid entry by tax gathering! (Early version of being able to monitor all one’s transactions).
In not a few places, whole regions or just towns, life was really quite pleasant and more colourful by the 13th century, but always liable to be ruined by poor harvests, epidemics, religious mania, and war – like much of Africa today.
Trumptopia: Take From The Poor, Give To The Rich (Wealth Fare)
U.S. inequality keeps getting uglier
http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/22/news/economy/us-inequality-worse/index.html
Idiocracy?
In the British press today. The genetc evidence now confirms the theory. Modern industrial civilization has a dysgenic effect on general intelligence. A previous study based on records of historical medical reflex times, which correlate closely with general intelligence (G-factor), indicated the same http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2323944/Were-Victorians-cleverer-Research-indicates-decline-brainpower-reflex-speed.html ; study of historical genomes and the genes associated with higher IQ now confirms it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4706512/Victorians-smarter-class-2017-claims-study.html
Victorians were smarter than the class of 2017: Advances in medicine mean more people with lower IQs survive today compared with two centuries ago, claims controversial study
Technology may be getting smarter but humans have been getting less intelligent since Victorian times, according to a controversial study.
The research claims that up until 180 years ago, people were getting smarter thanks to natural selection favouring ‘survival of the sharpest’.
The emergence of farming, cities and government would have made it easier for smarter people to get on in life, have more children and pass on their genes more widely.
But that trend has now being reversed, researchers in Brussels claim.
Genes driving intelligence have become less common since Victorian times, because advances in medicine and nutrition means people with lower IQs can have more children that survive into adulthood.
The research is led by Michael Woodley from the Free University in Brussels, according to The Times.
‘The millennia-long micro-evolutionary trend favouring higher GCA [general cognitive ability] not only ceased, but likely went into reverse among European-derived populations living in the 19th century’, researchers found.
James Thompson a senior psychology lecturer at University College London, who was not involved in the research, wrote about the research in his blog on ‘Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media’.
‘If we had been caught in our Victorian prime our rise in ability since the pre-agricultural hunter-gatherer ages would have been even more apparent’, he said.
Dr Woodley and his researchers used genomes recovered from 99 people in central Europe who died between 2,000BC to 600AD.
They compared these to the DNA of 503 modern Europeans and found intelligence genes had become more common over time.
These results were backed up by separate analysis of the genes of 66 individuals who had lived over 3,200 years.
This general increase in intelligence is counterbalanced by a dip since the 20th century – meaning that although people on average have higher IQs they have decreased since Victorian times when we were in our prime.
[…]
And Lord Byron (1788-1824) had the biggest brain ever recorded, according to Carl Sagan in Broca’s Brain. That didn’t seem to help him live into his 40s, though.
My take on this is specialization and a dependence on exosomatic knowledge is causing intelligence to decline. The collapse of industrial civilization might reverse this trend.
There is certainly some truth to that. Education improves only this or that cognitive skill, it does not raise general intelligence. We tend to do equally well (as ourselves) in all cognitive skills, which reflects the genetic component behind intelligence (g factor). Education works well in an economy with specialisation and a high degree of division of labour. People can get good at this or that and work in an appropriate sector.
That can mask a decine in general intelligence. The average British general intelligence is estimated to have fallen by the equivalent of 15 IQ points since the Victorians, which is a massive drop. The higher IQ bands have dropped by 6 IQ points on average just since the 1980s, so we are talking about a couple or a few of IQ points per generation. One of the reasons why Britain has gone from a world-leading country to a run down shell is likely because we have literally down bred ourselves with the NHS, medicines, hygene, welfare, rising livings standards etc.
Specialisation breeds incomplete men. It is one of the themes of the Wizard of Oz, everyone lacks a complete and fully functional personality. “Follow the yellow brick road” (breed the blond race) to get back to Kansas, a pre-industrial social setting. The eugenics movement sought to breed complete men.
Ironically we had the intelligence to predict precisely what was about to happen with the Victorian eugenics movement – but we collectively lacked the political wherewithal to do anything about it. A bit like the collapse really, many of us can see the overshoot and the inevitable abrupt contraction but there is nothing that we can as a society do about it.
Yes, if general intelligence has been gradually rising over thousands of years, and it has collapsed over the last couple of centuries, then it seems likely that the collapse will allow for a renewed increase, maybe even abrupt, depending on the cultural demands that our societies impose on our survival after the collapse.
The exosomatic knowledge point is interesting, I remember Socrates lamenting the damage that books would do to memory 2,500 years ago. Those Greeks were pretty bright too. They also understood eugenics.
“Exosomatic?” I don’t know what that means! Oh, I’ll just google it…
Please stop littering this site with the junk garbage of the DailyMail. They have been sued several times for making up total nonsense. Even Trumps wife sued them last year and won.
RT has been sued a few times too, you know. They’ve also had their UK bank account frozen and the UK broadcasting regulator Ofcom ruled that parts of one of their programs were “materially misleading”. It’s all part of the rough and tumble of the media circus.
I love how it links to another article that has the study. And that website is behind a paywall. LOL
I concur
I have several school study publications from the 1910-20 period.
The general curriculum of today’s educational system is not much above first grade. Children today are taught to feel not think. So they walk about as blind people.
Think about it.
The Big Man… thinnnnnk aboooooouut it!
i read that too.
not a pleasant thing to admit—but if thick people breed and bright people don’t the end result is obvious
Eugenics… The Core as studs….
And yet…. one of the cleverest people I know (Cambridge – female! -physicist) is the daughter of an illiterate house painter and a supermarket cashier.
One might well have said: why let them breed? What can they produce?
But the home was sober, stable, and offered no impediment to learning and a feeling of support, even if rather uncomprehending. Probably the key.
The half of the family, that took to drink and drugs and divorce, quite another story…….
Same genes.
i agree
but the trend reflects broad averages—there will also be individuals who go against that
Xab, I agree with you entirely. I have never argued that “morality” is entirely devoid of wisdom, rather that it tends to encapsulate some massive mistakes in the sense of its own pre-eminent self-importance. The alcoholic druggy son of an eminent family may well suffer from decadent social trends but his IQ is likely still much higher and nothing can change that. I have only ever argued for a balance between the Natural law and the human “moral” path. I now “argue” for nothing. Facts are facts and no one can change them. The sooner that Western civilization falls the better, no one should lift a finger to save it.
(excruciating)
Fracking bagholders-
“All of which leaves EnerVest with the rather unflattering honor of being perhaps the only private equity fund in history to ever raise over $1 billion in capital from investors and subsequently lose pretty much 100% of it.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-17/2-billion-energy-private-equity-fund-now-worth-roughly-0
I’m certain there’s many more.
The thinking goes like this: oil has always been hugely profitable. So, oil (no matter what kind of oil) will always be hugely profitable. This misconception still lives even though a casual glance at data tells you otherwise. It seems that investors have a misplaced faith in oil being profitable. When all potential investors realize that oil is a money looser the bottom will fall out. But, there are a lot of magical thinkers out there so maybe there are still some suckers left to invest in oil..
But it could still be cyclical, no?
Booms and busts in the oil industry are legendary. In a saw-tooth descent, there is lots of room for people to make money on oil. Some people, through luck or skill, made a lot of money on oil in 2008. A few even bought low, sold high, then made more money short-selling at the resulting low! (Wasn’t Buffet boasting about doing that?)
So if you really think the oil industry is toast, why not short-sell? You could make a killing if oil declines by half again!
Shorting is a fools game … there is no way the CBs will allow Big Oil to blow out — they will do whatever it takes to keep them alive — including infusing them will cash — much of which will be used to buy back shares — and kill shorts
Great point Greg I agree.
This is driving looking in th rear view mirror. It’s fun and exciting until the road changes course.
In the future. If prices decrease, and there is a lot of debt involved, it is easy to lose 100% of what is invested.
So again, did the USSR collapse or reorganize?
When automobiles came in did the transportation industry collapse or reorganize?
Certitude is a bit disconcerting; I recall a certain economist at ASPO confidently predicting $300 oil or some such with great certitude. I think he is now at resilience after having been asked to leave a fairly large Canadian Bank. Apparently the bank was right, he was certain, but wrong.
As for second chances, man has been around for a long time, seems to me there have been many, many chances and we are still here.
Easy question. Who died first in the gulags, the aristocrats or the strong peasants?
Dennis L.
Love it! Into my quotes database with you, Dennis!
I agree, great quote.
As a species we have not been around that long, and just about went extinct 70,000 years ago.
We know from the genetic bottleneck were were down to as little as 2000 individuals in Southern Africa.
Then we got the modern tool kit (40,000 years ago, hit the fossil fuel energy lottery, and turned energy into rapacious apes- this will not last long)
“… and turned energy into rapacious apes- this will not last long)”
depends on what we mean by “long”.
will IC last another decade or another century?
when oil and natural gas deplete, we can return to more coal, you know?
remember: the end of economic growth doesn’t guarantee The Collapse.
slow growth or no growth or negative “growth” are all very real possibilities.
Cheers!
“Certitude is a bit disconcerting”
yes, should anyone claim certainty about the future?
Did Greece, Iraq, Ukraine, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Venezuela collapse or reorganize?
will The Collapse happen in a year or a decade or a century?
nobody knows.
will The Collapse be avoided because IC declines slowly: 1 or 2% per year?
nobody knows.
but we do know: The Collapse isn’t happening today!
good for us!
Cheers!
Collapse is happening everywhere on every day, its just that in some parts of the world (yours?) the energy is still available to repair replace and renew. In this way the economy is an extension of our bodies; cells are dying every day, but when we are young they are readily renewed…unless there is an interruption to our own JIT system (foo, water?).
As a system ages the cumulative drag of old infrastructure defeats renewal and its game over. Collapse can take ‘its natural course’ or be quite ‘unnatural’.
Today I see collapse is obvious at the periphery; they lack the strong medicines that maintain the core. Once our antibiotics fail or are withdrawn (QE, zero interest rates, shale subsidies via printed money), we will see how our own collapse has been masked and merely delayed.
Well said
‘Man is an animal easily killed by a mere drop of (dirty)water.’ Pascal.
Aristocrat or peasant…….
The money that went to the USSR stopped going to the USSR. It therefore collapsed.
Sorry, this sentence about money in/out sounds bit like tautology..
In reality the USSR was largely self funding as mentioned above the resource/pop ratio was/is astounding. One of the major areas where they lost it, was their insistence on keeping military parity with the West (+quasi allies ~= effectively rest of the world), that was giant black hole sucking effect, thousands of jets, tanks, you name it.. plus this ideological driven big material help flowing into the 2.5-3rd world, while the global CBs just surfed on the reserve currency status with no pain (delay up to now lolz).
Well, perhaps they could have had good reason for such exalted paranoia after-all, 2-4x major invasions/wars of survival originated from the west in past few centuries. The graves from WWII were still shiny new and NATO was formed (before Warsaw Pact), by 1949-50 the US doctrine was to bomb USSR into oblivion with nukes before they might start catching up in that capability. This insanity was later at least started to be slowly curbed by Ike and Kennedy.
The Russian paradox: a much-invaded and much-suffering country ( let’s not forget the long centuries of being harvested for child slaves by Islam); and at the same time quite over-bearing and violent with respect to immediate neighbours, once it had the power to do so. I have to say, when I’ve heard Russians talk about Poles and other E. Europeans, the arrogance is very noticeable.
Well, there is arrogance and arrogance, when you sacrifice millions of deaths for liberation and your grateful payback is NATO enlargement in front of your window (or beyond ala Ukraine), incl. their officially supported neonazi revival in Baltic (recent scandal few days ago just for illustration), why are you surprised?
Should the western bankers and Adolf succeed in the alternate history of WWII, ~95% of “East Europeans” would have not be living by now, or at best as tiny fraction in some working camp colonies in Siberia (official plans for some of the fans of historical clueless).
“Sales of electric vehicles – which the IEA partly counts towards the energy efficiency total – also rose strongly, up 38% to 750,000. So did they not count the 84,000,000 new ICE’s sold in 2016 when calculating the ” energy efficiency total”?
-rockman
In the realm of fake news, only the statistics and “facts” that advance the narrative of perpetual progress (which enriches the elite) are discussed or supported. Embarrassing details like the 84m ICE’s sold in 2016 are airbrushed out.
Its the ‘agreed narrative’ all the way in so many news stories thats its become comical. Sadly the suckers are sleepwalking to its beat.
By the way James thanks for posting the Youtube Video on the Technology Trap…I read up on it and, as you probably know since you posted it, it comes from the series Connections from 1978. It looks like a fascinating series…from wikipedia:
” [Connections] took an interdisciplinary approach to the history of science and invention, and demonstrated how various discoveries, scientific achievements, and historical world events were built from one another successively in an interconnected way to bring about particular aspects of modern technology. The series was noted for Burke’s crisp and enthusiastic presentation (and dry humour), historical re-enactments, and intricate working models.”
I downloaded it and will be watching it….thanks!
That clip was brought to me by sage commenter Apneaman. We were considering the probability that the carrying capacity of the earth would fall proportionally to the degree of overshoot of human civilization. In other words, if the carrying capacity of the earth is one billion humans and human population surges to eight billion, then the carrying capacity is reduced by an equal amount due to the damages incurred from overshoot. The new carrying capacity might now be 200 million or less since we overshot the mark, poisoned the atmosphere and royally tore things up.
I watched the Burke series many years ago and have the companion book to the series. So many connections to understand and so little time.
Again, like the cities of Mesopotamia: the carrying capacity post-collapse was vastly less than the one which originally obtained, due to degradation caused by the over-shoot.
https://thepiratebay.org/torrent/4990510/James_Burke_-_Connections__(BBC_-_Series_1__2_and_3)
Thanks!
What collapsed in the USSR?
Was supplying cheap oil to a number of peripheral countries beneficial to Russia, the core of the USSR?
Is the Russia stronger or weaker than the USSR?
Again, did the USSR collapse or reorganize?
Infectious diseases are an interesting conjecture. There are some schools of thought regarding polio that it arose along with cleaner living conditions and reduced immunity.
Compare photographs of the people of Iraq, or even early twentieth century US with photographs of say Walmart today. Which population appears healthier?
The petri dish is a well known example; but how many bacteria live naturally in a petri dish?
Life does seem to work as a system, what is the system doing?
In your personal lives, how do things go if every minute of every day to every person you meet and have relations with you always tell the truth? You never have a “white” lie. Does it work? Are you able to do more, have a better relationship, have better teamwork with a few white lies or the absolute truth? Is a white lie similar to “fake” news?
Dennis L
The USSR did indeed collapse, the population of Russia took a nosedive but has since bounced back, (whilst that of Ukraine’s has only kept falling). During the 10 years following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the economy of Russia was ravaged by westerners and local oligarchs alike out for a quick buck, but the emergence of Vladimir Putin, and the country’s vast natural endowment allowed it to recover in the decade after his first election.
Unfortunately for Russia there won’t be a second chance. Despite western sanctions, she is wound tight to the global economic order, and will collapse most assuredly, along with all the jackals on her doorstep who would like to have another go at looting and pillaging the place.
“Russia could qualify as the most self-sufficient country. It produces sizable quantities of Oil, Coal, Natural Gas, Metals, Wheat, Corn, timber and livestock. It imports automobiles, technology, medicines and fruits. Except for medicines, none of the others are too critical to stall an economy. This is why the erstwhile USSR was able to sustain that long alienating the world markets (foreign trade contributed to less than 4% of Soviet’s GDP). ”
And it is even getting more so.
It also has a small population, relative to the land area.
Small, well educated population, massive resources compared to the rest of the planet, a robust scientific and engineering community (in fact, they are getting tired of bailing out the Silly Con Boys and Girls space fiascos- while good at software and toys, it is best to let the Big Boys do space), agricultural superpower, and of course the worlds largest oil producer (depending on the day).
We could go on, but I think we can get the idea.
Duncan is 100% correct in all his comments.
But if we were to have a serious spot of Glow-Ball Cooling, the Russians, along with the Canadians and Scandinavians, will be hit very hard on the agricultural front.
But Tim, what if it keeps warming?
What will you do?
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qQz73QECxEc/WW558_Kz8rI/AAAAAAAAwrY/C9ODA-FJa5Emc6kiQlKQfLxwY6pgIE-JwCLcBGAs/s640/baby-crying.jpg
Less firewood and more cold showers.
How about you, Duncan?
https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/omaha.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/56/156abf32-ba3a-5a3a-a6b2-6ccad285e85a/5374d362d0bcf.image.jpg
And unlike their Western brothers and sisters, the Russians, except for perhaps the youngsters, are inured to hardship and privation.
Hardship doesn’t frighten them, although they don’t relish it of course. It is their national myth: they endure.
The British had something a bit like that 70 years ago, stubborn and enduring and determined not to be pushed around by Germany, but have grown very soft now.
I’ve seen Westerners terrified of the future because they were down to their last £30 million and ‘it might run out before I die!’……..
I know quite a lot of Japanese down to their last 30 million yen who quite understandably feel just the same way.
But 30 million yen can still buy 600,000 tins of cheap but very passable cat food. So there’s no need to panic just yet.
http://tinpaw-4890.kxcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/best-dry-cat-food-for-urinary-health-2.jpg
Well, they apparently used well those very few years for jump starting path to securing a second chance, we can watch the *comparative global performance together during next years and decades, hah. That’s why the west is so freaked out now, they in retrospective realized ~2005-7 were the last window of chance to stop them, derail them. Supposedly, Putin survived ~5 assassinations attempts, and it was not only about the domestic faction of clepto-oligarchs who lost everything there.. Now after debacle with the Ukraine trap – Crimea, Syria, the next stage seems to be the Baltic front.
In general overview the situation shapes up as there might be couple of enough patriotic guys with effective governance capability across the entire portfolio (economy, defense, development..) to eventually replace him with at least some degree of similar success.
*as pet theories of universally synchronized instadoom likely won’t materialize..
“Well, they apparently used well those very few years for jump starting path to securing a second chance.”
And Russia is squandering its situation fast, through a policy of strength through exhaustion of its natural resources.
Strengthening domestic supply across the spectrum is now deemed as squandering by local instadoom brainiacks, uh all right..
I wonder what it is like to be ‘slow’ — did you get picked on by classmates?
How long does it take you to tie your shoelaces?
One example, they increased domestic food production.
Using imported tools (German) but also even more domestic tools, powered by domestic energy, paid within a system where their national CB doesn’t have external debts.
Is it a miracle, paradise? Not.
But comparatively/relatively vis a vis other yes indeed, and that’s what matter in this world.
After Gorbachev’s attempts at reform raised expectations he could not meet, in 1991 he started trying to tack back towards the hardliners (“conservatives”, neo-Stalinists, etc.). However, the hardliners attempted a coup against him:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt
It failed. Gorbachev was now without allies. The moderates and progressives (I use those words advisedly) had now coalesced around Yeltsin, who had been democratically elected President of Russia. Gorbachev was now in power but unable to exercise power. Still he talked and talked incessantly about his plans for the future of the Soviet Union. The leaders of the republics did not know how to get rid of him as president of the Soviet Union. The idea they hit upon was to declare independence for their republics – in effect, to withdraw from the Soviet Union, so that the Soviet Union no longer existed. The mat would be pulled from under Gorbachev. He would be president of a non-existent state. Initially there was talk among the core republics about setting up a new democratic federation to replace the USSR, but events overtook this idea. The closest they got was the Commonwealth of Independent States – not very close at all, then, really.
So, politically speaking, that is how the Soviet Union collapsed, tho there is a huge back story behind that, of course. I have a soft spot for Gorbachev because, tho ultimately he was a failure, he was a humane man in a state that had historically seen so much bloodshed. It resonated with me when he spoke of “our common European home”. Who remembers when the Soviets announced in 1988 that they were implementing “the Sinatra doctrine”, with regard to Eastern Europe? They were letting the East Europeans “do it their way”. 🙂
Not to disagree with the political story you told, but I think the fall had much more to do with Reagan’s deals to reduce oil prices below the amount needed for the fSU to maintain their empire.
(Actually, I give Reagan too much credit, which should go to Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Kissinger. And look out… Kissinger has been talking to Trump lately…)
Yes, that was the backstory I was alluding to. The political fallout usually follows much later down the line.
CBs support, Alaska + North Sea oil and natgas + proxy wars + all channel propaganda about that magical civil liberties and prosperity in the West did ~85% of the effect why Gorbi crashed it into ground so spectacularly fast..
In terms of “4th turning” the populace there must be nowadays vaccinated at least for three next generations based on that painful experience.
Bang, bang the mighty fall.
The US is talking about giving more healthcare back to the states.
When finances go badly, it seems like the push is to get the smaller units to carry more of the burden. The top layer has less power. There is agitation among the better off members to leave the group, leaving the group to those who are less financially able.
The Eurozone is mostly the “have nots” with respect to energy supplies. Norway, with its oil supplies had no interest in joining. Neither did Switzerland. The UK with its oil was an EU member, but not a Eurozone member. Now things are moving in the direction of the EU falling apart.
Actually, it was the “Free Market Scum” and the Kleptocracy that it fed that assured the rise of Putin. Russia possibly lost 25 million people after the collapse of the USSR (and the blood is on the hands of people like Jeffrey Sachs, and other free market ideological idiots).
I first thought Putin was just a second level KGB thug.
He has proved me wrong.
USSR was simply unable to pay for the imports from the countries of the Soviet bloc. The USSR bankrupted. They could not continue keeping control over the Soviet bloc, as their ability to provide affordable energy to other states was seriously damaged by the low oil prices. Without the rising natural gas exports, the USSR crumbles even sooner and Russia never recovers.
Moreover, Russia suffers from the same problems as other states in the world: the depopulation. Russia is like Argentina: big country, many resources, but these resources are harder to get and far from cheap.
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/mearns/mearns121307r.png
Source: http://www.321energy.com/editorials/mearns/mearns121307.html
“Russian gas production had an interim peak in 1991, and with the fall of the Soviet Union went into decline for a number of years. Since 1997, production has begun to rise again and a new high was reached in 2006 of over 600 BCM per annum. The $60K question is where next for Russian gas production? This question is just as important as the future direction of Saudi oil production.”
Modern uber-fatso Americans suffer the diseases of excess, no exercise, and eating industrialised crap.
The Arabs in your example, although not so grotesque, would have been riddled with TB, syphilis, parasites and God knows what else. Terrible incidence of eye diseases, too.
If anyone survives .. they will resemble this … skin diseases… weak… hungry ….
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dc/Street_dog-Gianyar_Bali-2009.jpeg
My pet theory is that the USSR collapsed because the Soviet Economic System was not good at creating debt and credit. If you look at the period where the west won out over the USSR it was a period ( late 80’s, early 90’s) in the US where debt creation was turbo charged and took off as the replacement for a declining industrial sector. We kept our economy going and growing with private, corporate and public debt growth and that mechanism of stealing from the future was not available in the Communist System. We can expect the same result when we run out of the ability to create credit out of thin air.
I think it may have collapsed because the price of oil collapsed…
As we have seen — even Venezuela and KSA can prosper indefinitely — in spite of themselves — if they can make a profit from their resources
Yep, that’s what I included in the top list of reasons for loosing the cold war.
If you look at graph of US debt, it almost quadrupled during those last two 5yrs periods, i.e. during that total ~decade from ~1980-1991..
Reserve Bank minutes: ‘Neutral’ interest rate rate around 3.5pc, Australian dollar surges
In the minutes from its July meeting a fortnight ago – when rates were left on hold at 1.5 per cent – the RBA signalled that the “neutral nominal cash rate” would need to rise to around 3.5 per cent to keep inflation in check and growth at reasonable levels.
The predictions for a higher cash rate will put investor and residential borrowers on alert given high levels of loans issued at the current record low cash rate.
“If the mortgage rate increased by a further 200 basis points, the evidence of 2011 suggests that house prices would likely fall – hardly what one might assess as a neutral policy stance,” he wrote in a note on the minutes.
Despite the RBA’s efforts to manage expectations, concerns remain that anything but a gradual increase would leave indebted borrowers in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane struggling to meet higher mortgage repayments.
Central banks are now at their wits end as to how to stuff the genie of 10 years of unbridled monetary policy back into the bottle. Good luck with all of that.
As for Australia, well – you’re standing in it, up to your necks. The crash downunder will be so epic, it will win every award, break every record for misery and disaster from here until kingdom come, once the hammer blow strikes.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-c5jd7BTDEbA/VRDz83KFUsI/AAAAAAAAERg/ITbiIBrjVwA/s1600/Deep%2BImpact%2BAsteroid.jpg
As for Australia, well – you’re standing in it, up to your necks. The crash downunder will be so epic
And you’ll be able to hear them squealing like stuck pigs from space.
“It’s not fair, it’s not fair, why us, it’s everyone elses fault. How are we supposed to bring up 4 kids & have a mortgage, new car & all the mod-cons? Squeal squeal.
do you think bau readers
in a time fake economy /fake news ruled the world
do you think soviet union would have collapsed in today time
The USSR was all fake, yet it still collapsed, despite its enormous natural bounty. Today’s fakeness is backstopped with nothing more than a jawbone and a printing press.
All of IC is fake. Here is reality:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples
Scroll down this page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples
and look at the population numbers for these tribes! That is reality. 7B is not reality.
Maybe 100,000 or 200,000 at most, just looking at a few of the numbers. The world Gorilla population seems to be around 100,000. http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/endangered_species/great_apes/gorillas/ Humans would probably not be too different.
I think that the main reason we haven’t collapsed yet is that billions and billions of people are employing affirmations, such as:
• Collapse is for losers!
• We’re thriving and succeeding!
• Living the good life! (thanks to Helen and Scott for that)
• Progress and prosperity will continue forever!
• We’re making BAU great again! (hat top to the Donald)
• Every day in every way we’re getting better and better!
And let’s not forget:
• More! More! More!
http://chi-nese.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/affirmations-money-affirmations.jpg
Don’t underestimate the power of magical thinking.
Germany: Infectious Diseases Spreading As Migrants Settle In
“Some of the ailments I have not seen for 20 or 25 years… and many of my younger colleagues have actually never seen them.”
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/10676/germany-migrants-infectious
You ain’t see nothin yet……
We still have functioning antibiotics.
I think you are right if you mean that they function to weaken us and strengthen the microbes that threaten us
Black Death on Steroids… actually a thousand versions of the Black Death …..
We’ve held these diseases off with temporary measures….
https://www.planetdeadly.com/wp-content/uploads/pit-bull.jpg
that doesn’t appear to be a very friendly dog.
I suppose that is was a meant by “still”.
Exactly right Lastcall. Agree 100% that drugs weaken us (and especially our offspring). And the microbes are strengthened. It is all a battle against nature to maintain our bubble. We are so weak now that if the bubble were to break most would perish very quickly.
Not to mention the diseases carried by mosquitos that we spray today.
Malaria was a big problem in the US … at one point…
https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/history/elimination_us.html
It will be again.
Largest such study finds rampant antibiotic use in chickens
Almost 90% of broiler farms harbor multi-drug-resistant germs
Indian poultry farms aren’t just rearing chickens — they’re also breeding germs capable of thwarting all but the most potent antibiotics, researchers found.
Random tests on 18 poultry farms raising about 50,000 birds each in India’s northwestern state of Punjab found that two-thirds of fowl harbored bacteria that produce special enzymes, known as extended-spectrum beta-lactamase, or ESBL, that destroy most penicillin- and cephalosporin-based antibiotics. Of tested birds destined for meat consumption, 87 percent had the super germs, a study published Thursday in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives showed. That compared with 42 percent of egg-laying hens
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-20/poultry-farms-in-india-resemble-superbug-reservoirs-study-finds
You gotta wonder what sorts of diseases will spread when there are no antibiotics available….
“Our findings suggest that antimicrobial use for growth promotion promoted the development of reservoirs of highly resistant bacteria on the studied farms, with potentially serious implications for human health,” Laxminarayan and colleagues wrote in the study.
And soon we won’t….. and disease is going to have a massive getting out of jail party —- and we are all invited — actually …. we are hosting the party
We are the only thing left to feast on for the bugs.
A couple of yeas ago an Indian doctor working with immigrants from India and Africa stated that his estimate was at least 25% with TB.
And in discussing Collapse we always over-look things like regular mass vaccination, quite apart from antibiotics. Once that goes…..
I suspect you are right — we are underestimating this horseman big time…
https://www.garybarker.co.uk/images/four-horsemen-illustration.jpg
In Sweden, probably Germany also, it would be considered ray-cist to do mandatory health checks (even though it would be an advantage in the asylum process to HAVE a disease)
that’s why i keep banging on about the means of pumping fresh water in and human waste out…..without bau, you fetch your water, and human waste just sits there.
and that’s before we get to the sheer complexity of making a hypodermic needle.
i wrote this piece on the subject of health, and where healthcare is headed
https://extranewsfeed.com/stay-healthy-1c4e9ecbdde
it might interest a few doomsters
Sorry, my mistake; he actually said 40%. with TB. 🙁
Good Lord. We are so toast. 40% with TB and BAU is still hanging on. I can only imagine what will happen when BAU stops.
Yes, I gulped when I heard that. Now, just think about the 100’s of thousands who drop off the radar and never get examined or treated…….
We are so vulnerable right now and most folks don’t realize it. So many potential entry points for some event to tip over the apple cart. The holes are popping up everywhere.
Yet there is this blind faith that technology and BAU will somehow allow 7B people to continue going for decades. I am just dumbfounded by such a suggestion. We are certain to reach a point where billions will perish in a very short time. We are already seeing attempts by nature to re-adjust things. At some point we loose control.
i’m safe, with my regular doses of gin-tonics. oops, that’s for malaria.
It sure does seem to takes a lot of energy and resources to fend off the natural world eh. I predict a bull market for bacteria and viruses.
If we consider past plagues… there were far fewer people … yet they were devastating …
7.5 billion hosts….
When BAU goes not only do the medicines go but also the ability to isolate and stop the diseases from spreading…
The four horseman + the recent addition radiation …. will put an end to this disgusting species.
We do not need lords and slaves anymore. Todays lords are financial institutions providing loans and the slaves are those who go into debt, as the diminishing returns make the loans harder and harder repayable.
When you take the loan, you commit yourself to providing your energy for the functioning of the system. It is like additional tax that lowers your income needed for buying day-to-day energy for your survival.
That is why when you die, there can be no asset, if you are indebted so deeply that you finally use the loans for buying day-to-day energy, not long term assets.
It seems that 35-yr mortgages are steadily rising in Britain. Anyone say ‘Recovery’?!
The upside of that is the lenders probably won’t have to pay back the full amount.
The downside is that debtors prisons may see a revival.
The institution of the personal bankruptcy is on the rise. In Slovakia, the government tries to prevent the total bankruptcy of a person by setting the limits, i.e. the last EUR 10.000 can not be executed during the personal bankruptcy, that can take place once per 10 years. These EUR 10.000 is to be held in the bank and provided as monthly paymanets by the bank for the accomodation of the bankrupted person.
https://www.bnt.eu/cs/pravni-novinky/2409-zmeny-insolvencniho-zakona-k-1-cervenci-2017
Debtors prison: the traditional home -in England – of the cultivated and brilliant:
‘I may end up in the gutter. But, sir, I assure you I shall be an ornament to that place!’ 🙂
What does a “35 yr mortgage” mean?
Instead of the usual 25-yr term. You get it cheaper, per month. Extend, pretend…… 🙂
Oh, I wasn’t familiar with mortgages you were supposed to pay off.
Yeah just like interest only residential mortgages in Australia.
And since values increase much faster than interest you could take out more mortgage every few years, basically not paying interest.
I wouldn’t have had to pay a single money in mortgage, interest, maintainance or rent since 1996.
Are you from Australia? What’s your situation?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/07/05/stock%20buyers_0.jpg
Using free CB cash of course….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-17/there-has-been-just-one-buyer-stocks-financial-crisis
Ouch!