Many people expect energy shortages to lead to high prices. This is based on their view of what “running out” of oil might do to the economy.
In this post, I look at historical data surrounding inadequate energy supply. I also consider some of the physics associated with the situation. I see a strange coincidence between when coal production peaked (hit its maximum production before declining) in the United Kingdom and when World War I broke out. There was an equally strange coincidence between when the highest quality coal peaked in Germany and when World War II broke out. A good case can be made that inadequate energy supply is associated with conflict and fighting because leaders recognize how important an adequate energy supply is.
Some of my previous analysis has shown that if we view energy in terms of average energy supply per person, the world as a whole may be again entering into a period of inadequate energy supply. If my view is correct that inadequate energy supply leads to increased conflict, the recent discord that we have been seeing among world leaders may be related to today’s low supply of energy. (My energy analysis considers the combined energy supply available per person from fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewables. It is not simply an oil-based analysis.)
The physics of the low energy situation may be trying to “freeze out” the less efficient portions of the economy. If successful, the outcome might be analogous to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991, after oil prices had been low for several years. Total energy consumption of countries involved in the collapse dropped by close to 40%, on average. The rest of the world benefitted from lower oil prices (resulting from lower total demand). It also benefitted from the oil that remained in the ground and consequently was available for extraction in recent years, when we really needed it.
The idea that oil prices can rise very high seems to be based on the oil price increases of the 1970s and of the early 2000s. While oil prices can temporarily rise very high, it is hard to make a case that they can remain high for an extended period. For one thing, high oil prices tend to cause recessions and lower employment. In such an environment, affordability of energy products is lower, and oil prices tend to fall. For another, it is easy for the Federal Reserve to get oil prices back down by raising interest rates. In fact, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates right now.
In my opinion, we should be more concerned about low oil prices than high because we live in a world economy with huge debt bubbles. Debt bubbles are part of what enable today’s high employment. Debt bubbles support employers that are close to the edge financially; they also support buyers who would not be able afford automobiles or college educations, if loans were to become more expensive because of higher interest rates. Employment in the affected industries would be cut back, leading to recession.
Because of these issues, pricking the debt bubble is likely to lead to a major recession and, indirectly, lower energy prices, as in late 2008 (Figure 12). These lower prices are not good news because energy providers of all kinds need fairly high energy prices to survive–probably equivalent to oil at $80 per barrel or higher. If energy prices stay persistently low, the world is likely to see much lower oil supply, in part because oil exporters need the tax revenue that they obtain from high-priced oil to fund their programs.
A Self-Organizing Economy Needs Energy to Fulfill Its Promises
The problem that has arisen many times in the past is that energy supply becomes inadequate, relative to what the economy needs to operate. This energy shortfall is virtually never explained to the public. It is only apparent to the occasional researcher who realizes that this might be the issue.
The amount of energy that a networked economy needs to operate depends on:
- The number of people alive at the time,
- The industry that has been put in place, and
- The promises, such as retirement promises, that have been made to citizens.
Adequate energy supply is important for jobs and their pay levels. A rising supply of energy per capita tends to add jobs. The Asian countries shown in Figure 1 are some examples of countries where rising energy supply has given rise to more non-agricultural jobs.
Figure 1. Energy consumption per capita based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 total energy consumption data and UN 2017 Population Estimates of three selected countries. Energy consumption includes oil, natural gas, coal, and many smaller types of energy consumption, including wind and solar.
The jobs added rarely pay high salaries compared to those in the developed world, but they have helped raise the standard of living of those who have obtained them.
A falling supply of energy consumption per capita tends to make jobs that are high-paying more difficult to obtain. If energy per capita falls, there may still be a reasonable number of jobs, but many of them won’t pay well. High energy jobs such as building new schools and resurfacing roads tend to disappear, while jobs requiring little energy consumption, such as waitress and bartender, are added. Figure 2 gives some examples of European countries that have seen declines in energy consumption per capita in recent years.
Figure 2. Energy consumption per capita based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 total energy consumption data and UN 2017 Population Estimates of three selected countries. Energy consumption includes oil, natural gas, coal, and many smaller types of energy consumption, including wind and solar.
When jobs that pay well become more difficult to find, a significant share of the population starts believing that there is no room for additional immigrants, regardless of how needy they may be. This seems to be part of the dynamic many countries have been encountering recently.
If growth in energy supply is inadequate, other physics-related issues also arise:
- Inadequate economic growth, because it takes energy to create goods and services
- A tendency toward debt defaults, and the resulting deflation of asset bubbles
- Downward pressure on wages, in situations where machines or lower-paid workers can be substituted for somewhat routine work
- Difficulty collecting adequate tax revenue
- A tendency toward aggressive behavior between countries and actual wars
Physicist François Roddier has examined how economies allocate resources when there is a problem with scarcity. He finds that when there is inadequate total energy supply, this shortage is reflected in growing wage and wealth disparity. Thus, the goods and services made possible by energy supplies are disproportionately allocated to a small proportion of individuals at the top of the economic hierarchy, while those at the bottom receive a falling share.
He likens the increasing share of wages/wealth going to the top to steam rising. At the same time, he sees the falling share of energy consumption going to those at the bottom of the hierarchy as freezing out those who are contributing the least to the economy. Using this approach, some portion of the economy can be maintained in a period of temporary energy scarcity, even if the most vulnerable parts are lost.
How a Few Past Low-Energy Problems Resolved
First Low-Energy Consumption Period: Following Peak Coal in the United Kingdom, 1913
Figure 3. United Kingdom coal production since 1855, in a figure by David Strahan. First published in New Scientist, 17 January 2008.
The UK problem in the 1914 time-period was a coal problem. The coal whose delivered cost was lowest had been produced first. It was near the surface and geographically close to where it was ultimately to be used. Many types of costs rose as the easy-to-extract and deliver coal was exhausted. For example, more worker-hours were needed per ton of coal extracted.
If the costs of extracting and delivering coal rose, a person might think that these higher costs would be passed on to consumers as higher prices. (This is the hypothesis behind the ever-rising oil price theory.) Thus, a person might expect that coal prices would rise because coal companies needed more revenue to handle what was becoming an increasingly inefficient mining and delivery process.
This wasn’t the way it really worked, though, because customers couldn’t afford the higher costs. The wages of most citizens didn’t rise because the amount of goods and services the economy could produce depended upon the quantity of coal that was produced and delivered. If the economy were to take workers from outside the coal industry to compensate for the industry’s higher need for labor, it would further act to reduce the economy’s total output, because the new coal workers would no longer be performing their previous jobs.
Mining companies (sort of) solved their wage problem by paying miners an increasingly inadequate wage. Strikes by workers and lockouts by employers became an increasing problem in the 1910 to 1914 period. Probably not coincidentally, World War I started in 1914, just after UK coal production hit its peak in 1913. The war provided jobs for miners and others who could not otherwise find jobs that paid a living wage. Workers leaving for the war effort left fewer for mining.
Ultimately, World War I worked out well for the UK. The fact that it was on the winning side allowed the UK to remain the dominant world power until 1945, despite its declining coal production. Being dominant, the British pound sterling remained as the world reserve currency. This status made it easier for the UK to borrow, allowing it to import coal, even when it otherwise lacked funds to pay for it.
Second Low-Energy Consumption Period: 1920 to World War II, in the United States
The situation here seems to be more complex. The low energy problem that underlay World War I hadn’t really been resolved; it had mostly been moved elsewhere. Also, Germany, which was the other major European coal producer besides the UK, was reaching a peak in its predominant type of coal production, hard coal (Figure 4). Because of the these issues, European demand for imported goods from the US dropped dramatically. In particular, the US had been a big supplier of food to Europe during World War I, but this source of demand disappeared after 1918, when soldiers returned to their fields.
Figure 4. Hard coal production in Germany 1792 to 2002. Chart by BGR.
With respect to US demand for coal, the big issue besides low demand from Europe was internal US demand. Mechanization was starting to replace unskilled workers, both on farms and in factories. Mechanization of farming created a double problem: it added more food than was really needed, and it created a combination of winners and losers. The winners were those with the new mechanization who could produce food cheaply; the losers were those who still used processes that required much more manual labor. Available food prices fell far below the non-mechanized cost of food production. City dwellers were also winners thanks to the lower food prices.
Wage disparity became an increasingly serious problem in the 1920s (Figure 5). Workers with low wages could not afford to buy many goods and services. The laws of physics requires energy consumption (“dissipation”) whenever heat or motion are produced. Thus, physics requires that energy products be used in the manufacturing and delivery of goods and services. Following this logic through, the low wages of workers displaced by mechanization further acted to reduce demand for US energy supplies, over and above European coal problems.
Figure 5. U. S. Income Shares of Top 1% and Top 0.1%, Wikipedia exhibit by Piketty and Saez.
Debt levels grew in the Roaring 20s, partly driven by the apparent advantages of the new mechanization. In 1929, the debt bubble began to collapse, showing the underlying weakness of the economy.
The problems of the late 1920s to 1930 bore a striking resemblance to those of today. Wage disparity had become a major issue because of displacement of many workers mechanization and immigration. In response, tariffs were added: the Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922 and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930. Limits were also set on the number of immigrants, in the hope that reduced competition from immigration would help raise the wages of unskilled workers.
Eventually, the low-demand-for-energy problem was solved with World War II. The extra demand of World War II added many women to the work force for the first time. US energy consumption grew thanks to the war effort. The large wage increase about this time (Figure 6) primarily reflects the addition of many more workers to the labor force.
Figure 6. Three-year average growth in wages and in average personal income, based on data of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income includes transfer payments such as Social Security and Unemployment Insurance. It also is net of taxes. The denominator in this calculation is total US population, so the changes reflect the effect of adding a larger share of the population to the workforce.
World War II was a winning strategy economically for the United States. Wages rose rapidly during the early 1940s, as did “Disposable Personal Income,” which is closely related. In addition, the US dollar took over as the reserve currency from the British pound in 1945. This gave the United States the power to import more goods and services (including oil) than it would have been able to if it had been more limited in its ability to borrow.
If we analyze US coal production, we see the interplay between geological limits and demand (really, what is affordable by consumers). With respect to geological limits, US anthracite coal hit an apparently geologically limited production peak in 1918. It hit when there was a fall-off in demand for imported food from Europe, so coal prices were almost certainly falling (Figure 7).
Figure 7. US coal production by type, in Wikipedia exhibit by contributor Plazak.
The US production of the second-highest quality coal, bituminous coal, rose rapidly between 1870 and 1918, when its production path suddenly changed to a jagged plateau, which lasted until about 1930. Coal production then dropped precipitously, as the economy sank, and did not rise again until the time of World War II. This pattern very much follows the “demand” pattern expected based on the earlier discussion. The wage disparity of the 1920s seems to have led to flattening production, with a steep drop with the problems of the 1930s. Looking out at 1990 on Figure 7, bituminous coal may have hit a geological production peak. Energy prices are this time were low (Figure 10), again pointing to low prices being associated with peaks in the production of a type of energy supply, not high prices.
Production of the two lowest qualities of coal (sub-bituminous and lignite) coal did not begin until 1970. The rapid ramp-up of coal supplies helped cushion the peak in oil production in the United States, which occurred (coincidentally or not) the same year, 1970. We see a shift toward ever-lower quality of energy resources, but we do not see a pattern of spiking of prices associated with peak demand. Instead, low prices seem to be associated with peaks in production.
Third Low Energy Consumption Period: Dip from 1980 – 1984, Related to High Interest Rates
A person might expect the peaking of US oil production in 1970 to have had a major impact on US energy consumption, but a much larger drop in energy consumption occurred in the 1980 to 1983 period, when the US raised interest rates to a high level, causing recession.
Figure 8. Chart produced by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis (FRED) showing a comparison of 10-year Treasury interest rates and the annual change in GDP rates (where GDP growth includes inflation).
The resulting dip in oil consumption sent oil prices from an average inflation-adjusted price of $110 per barrel in 1980, down to $32 per barrel in 1986. At such low energy prices, energy exporters have difficulty collecting enough tax revenue and obtaining enough funds for new wells. Only the sturdier exporting nations could survive.
The energy exporter that did not survive was the Soviet Union. It took until 1991 for the financial strains of low oil prices to collapse the central government of the Soviet Union. With its collapse, much of the industry of the Soviet Union permanently was destroyed, reducing energy consumption by close to 40%. Even thirty years later, the per capita energy consumption of the former Soviet nations remains far below its mid-1980s plateau level (Figure 9).
Figure 9. Per Capita Energy Consumption by Part of the World, based on data of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 and 2017 UN Medium Population Estimates. The Russia+ grouping is the Commonwealth of Independent States, shown in BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. It is slightly smaller than the former Soviet Union.
Analysis
Looking at these situations, there is little evidence with respect to UK and German coal production that geological peaks in production are associated with high prices. Instead, they seem to be associated with conflict among nations.
Apart from conflict, the other issue associated with peaks in coal production seems to be falling demand, and thus falling prices. The reason for geological peaks is likely to be inadequate profitability. Inadequate profitability occurs because rising costs of production and transport can no longer be recouped with higher prices. A person might say that the limit on rising coal production is the affordable price. It is reasonable to expect that the same is true for oil.
There is also little evidence that energy scarcity causes high prices, if energy scarcity is defined as low energy consumption per capita for all types of energy products combined. Instead, energy scarcity tends to cause wage disparity. Energy scarcity is also a concern for government leaders because they can see the need for an adequate supply of inexpensive energy, if they are to be able to compete in the world marketplace. Goods made with an expensive energy mix tend to be high-priced, and thus they tend to be noncompetitive in the world market.
Local customers are also unlikely to be able to afford goods made with expensive energy products, because the additional wages are being used to support what is essentially a less efficient type of production. There are many ways that energy costs can rise, including:
- Need for more human labor
- Higher wages for labor, perhaps because of more education or location
- Need for the use of more energy products in the making of new energy products
- Need for more debt financing
- Higher interest rates
- More machinery, including pollution-control equipment
- Need to lease land at higher cost
- Higher taxes
Regardless of where the extra costs come from, they don’t actually produce more of the energy products that are essential to making the economy operate as it should. The higher costs are simply a drag on the economy, which must be hidden in some way. Approaches for hiding the problem include reducing interest rates, outsourcing manufacturing to low-wage countries, and replacing some unskilled workers with computers or robots.
Prices seem to be tied more to what customers can afford than to the cost of production. Note that when energy supplies were low in the 1920 to 1930 period, oil prices declined. This pattern occurred because growing wage disparity led to more people who could not afford very many goods and services made with oil products.
Figure 10. Historical inflation-adjusted oil prices, based on inflation adjusted Brent-equivalent oil prices shown in BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018.
Looking at Figure 11 below, we see a situation where US average wages seem to rise only if oil prices are low. If oil prices are high, it becomes more economic to send manufacturing to countries using cheaper energy products and offering lower wages. Such substitution leads to fewer US jobs and recession.
Figure 11. Average wages in 2017$ compared to Brent oil price, also in 2017$. Oil prices in 2017$ are from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. Average wages are total wages based on BEA data adjusted by the GDP price deflator, divided by total population. Thus, they reflect changes in the proportion of population employed as well as changes in wage levels.
The Federal Reserve is very much aware of the fact that high oil prices lead to high food prices, and thus are a problem for the economy. It may also be aware of other issues related to high oil prices, such as loss of competitiveness in the world market.
The Federal Reserve has a powerful tool for fixing the problem of high oil prices–its Open Market Committee can raise short-term interest rates, and thereby make loans more expensive. For example, if interest rates can be changed so that auto loan interest rates rise from 5% to 6%, this makes automobile monthly payments more expensive, and thus reduces demand for cars. Indirectly, this reduces demand for oil, both for manufacturing them and for operating them.
In fact, the Federal Reserve seems to have been a major contributor to the Great Recession of 2007-2009. It first lowered interest rates in the early 2000s and helped create a debt bubble, particularly in sub-prime housing. It later raised interest rates. The higher interest rates plus high oil prices popped the debt bubble.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a program that was added in recent years to adjust interest rates, over and above the impacts available from changes to short-term interest rates. Figure 12 shows that these interest rate changes seem to have had a close correspondence to turning points in oil prices. QE was added in late 2008 to reduce interest rates, and thus raise oil prices. Removing QE seems to have had the opposite impact.
Figure 12. Monthly average spot Brent oil prices based on US Energy Information Agency data, together with dates when the US began and ended Quantitative Easing.
What we are facing going forward is a debt bubble made possible by a long period of very low interest rates. The Federal Reserve now seems to be intent on popping this bubble by raising short-term interest rates and selling Quantitative Easing securities at the same time. If the Federal Reserve does succeed in popping the debt bubble, oil prices (as well as other energy prices) could fall very low again. If I am right, we can expect another major recession. It will be characterized by low demand, low commodity prices and layoffs in many industries.
Conclusion
The more a person looks at the story of how rising oil prices might allow oil extraction indefinitely, the less reasonable it seems. If the story about oil prices rising endlessly were true, we would have seen coal prices rise endlessly in Europe a century ago, when it was the dominant form of supplemental energy available. It didn’t happen.
Instead, what we need to be concerned about is the possibility of rising conflict. The energy situation may become increasingly like a game of musical chairs, if the amount available from sellers at an affordable price falls too low. The winners will attempt to obtain an adequate supply for themselves. It is not clear that this strategy can have winners, but perhaps I have not considered all of the possible outcomes.
One of the issues with inadequate energy supplies is the difficulty in obtaining adequate tax revenue. If tax revenue is an issue, there is likely to be a push to reduce donations to organizations that act to bring countries together, such as the European Union and the United Nations. Subsidies of all types are likely to be on the chopping block. Government services of all types are also likely to be reduced or eliminated, from bridge repairs to retirement programs for the elderly.
Most of us have never been taught about resource wars. The wide availability of fossil fuels eliminated the need to even think about a possible lack of energy resources, or other limited resources such as fresh water. Unfortunately, resource conflict may be back in some new 21st century version in the not too distant future.
Needless to say, I am not advocating conflict and cutting programs. It is just that energy problems and financial problems are very closely linked. This is the way that things seem to work out.
Redshift has a point. There are more tricks in the elites’ sleeves, which they don’t have to reveal to the plebs.
All the civilization-drivers have to do is outlast the ‘useless eaters’, which can be done quite easily. The wall of Constantinople still stands. (The Turks, despite of their cannons, never broke it. It was because on the last day of the battle the leader of the Genoese mercernaries was mortally wounded, and the mercs were too eager to evacuate their doomed leader and left a door open!)
There are not enough raw materials for everyone, but there are more than enough raw materials to build the stuff to reach the next level of civilization.
Bad companies which are still relevant will be propped up forever by printed money,
There will be collapse to the plebs but not for those who do matter.
Someone had posted a link to this Douglas Rushkoff piece.
https://medium.com/s/futurehuman/survival-of-the-richest-9ef6cddd0cc1
but nobody bothered to comment on it here.
The Smarties know what is going on and are making preps. They are not smarties for nothing.
The smarties does not have to bother since their backs are covered by US department of energy supercomputing and research efforts.
All the churn of bribing and pushing agendas is now handled by information processing machines and a few mouth pieces and decision makers.
Just like the facade of a busy Wall Street is a Potemkin village for the feeble minded to “view” how and where the “trading” is done. When in fact the real trading takes place in information processing machines.
Long live our semiconductor and software overlords. The victory is complete and inevitable as technology moves on it will only become even more obvious.
You can’t prep for a tidal wave, just get out of the way. Only a few small groups will survive, if any. Those who are used to living by taking a small percentage of what nature can replenish, if there are pockets of nature left to support our size of mammals. In the long run species come and go, we are no different. I’m also of the opinion there is no long term plan being carried out by a group of powerful people. There are competing humans that have acquired power and money throughout time, they will work together if it helps their individual goals, and our current system lets wealth and power accumulate in certain families or corporations. The more conspiracies I read about, and I’ve been digesting a large amount for the last decade, the more I feel it’s B.S.. The human brain evolved to make patterns out of noise, and conspiracy theories is an output of this ability.
Hm, I’ll lob you a soft one here (sort of litmus test), three key incidents of “loosing the innocence” vs govs and various mass indoctrination spectacles: 1963. 1969, 2001 – all three stand as portrayed by msm to this day?
No conspiracies is needed. The intelligent and powerful will prevail. That’s all you need to know. However,
The tools, organizations and methods that is deployed are for each and one of us to figure out.
For example: The Limits of Growth study ran in 72, before the oil crisis hit and was funded by a thinktank from one of the largest corporations on earth.
Computation has been a part of policy making ever since.
Sounds plausible?
😉
“There are more tricks in the elites’ sleeves, which they don’t have to reveal to the plebs” I don’t agree. – I think it is really more like this: “There are more tricks up Mother Nature’s sleeves which she has not revealed to the elites”. We are products of this Earth not its caretaker.
Just back from the Czech Republic (Czechia). Wonderful place the men look like men and the women look like women. Prague has excellent public transportation. Absolutely no smell of urine in the subways.
Cars are few relative to people. Energy use seems modest. 1/3 of electric is nuclear. Happened to drive by one of the three nuclear sites (two reactors per site). The road runs within 200 feet of the base of the cooling tower, they are big.
People retire at 63. I would consider retiring there. I am somewhat concerned about their energy supply. They are doubling down on nuclear but actually need 8x nuclear.
I had a great time at the Human Level Artificial Intelligence Conference in Prague. GoodAI a Prague based company gave one of the best talks. I expect they will lead the automation of the Czech auto manufacturing industry. The other top top was by Dileep George of Vicarious (Menlo Park). They do assembly robots. Their first products will be released in a few months. Their vision is 2030s 100% robot assembly.
I have several friends living there now, and it’s where they want to be.
Never been there myself.
I like Prague
for me its rural romania
the reason is the unity that i saw from roma people
was unbelievable roma people do not give shit about what people
think about them and culture have not change
since they have land in europe
plus they enjoy the life way better than
depression native Romanian
https://youtu.be/rCunGo798_c
Given this information I think I would prefer if the romas could stay happy in Romania and not be shaking the cup outside my inconvenience store.
Gypsies are EV humans, living off the hard work and sweat of European civilization.
You surely must mean living off the spoils of fossil fuel industrialized civilization?
and you are slave of industrial civilization
“and you are a slave of industrial civilization”
I like think of myself as a lovingly restored corvette that only gets taken out to impress the ladies. Let me know when Bruce comes out with a song about electric vehicles.
Yeah, who in their right mind wouldn’t appreciate an old school fossil burner as an expensive and a time consuming hobby.
As for being a slave to industrialized civilization. Well, much rather that than a real slave subject to starvation, disease and suffering. Like in those sh1th0le countries.
Besides it is plenty fun here once you see past the musts, obligations and haves. No, fsck that cr@p.
Let em feeble minded handle that chore. Kids, SUV’s, dogs, houses, mortgages, obesity, divorces, alcoholism, layoffs, depression, suicide. In that order.
*cringes*
A song about how his Tesla broke down in the first verse, and still waiting for replacement parts in every refrain.
LOL!
that problem is create by eu Open borders
not roma people
Actually we have two kind of romas.
“finnish roma”, has lived here for hundreds of years, in typical dress
https://uppslagsverket.fi/sv/view-103684-30751
And romanian/bulgarian romas, appeared 5-6 years ago, EVERYWHERE
https://nyheteridag.se/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/rom.jpg?ver=1417788587
It should be legal to shoot liberals and gypsies with high powered rifles…. no?
I think DJ is an undiluted Swede.
The only thing Swedes shoot is wildlife during the hunting season. The same holds true for most of the better off second and later generations of immigrants.
The migrants mostly does the shooting among themselves and other groups infringing in their turfs.
You need not worry FE. The “problem” takes care of itself.
Glad you posted that,TWP: some of the best dancers in the world.
The dancer in ‘Tutti Frutti’ also wins my vote – but she would probably pick my pocket, steal my shirt and leave me to die in the woods!
My cousin Andrea, who is half-gypsy, wins all the prizes – but she isn’t on any videos. 🙂
The dancer in ‘Tutti Frutti’ also wins my vote – but she would probably pick my pocket, steal my shirt and leave me to die in the woods!
still better than playing video games and eating kfc
and getting fat
Catchy tune
Sitting here in Wal-Mart as I post this. Depressing.Thinking of machines/robots. These are capital intensive so in theory will further stratify the elites over the worker bees -soon to increasingly become useless eaters with a smaller base of employed people , i.e., only those who design, build, and maintain the machines needing to apply.
A reverse or unwinding of the Henry Ford theory of everyone being able to afford a model T based on the assumption that everyone, including thise who did not work at his factory, had a job.
For this to work I think it is about time for the UEs to start dying about now, or at least cutting living standards.
The fringe goes on triage first.
The core/US falls last. Plenty of FF’s and high tech to keep their game going into the next century.
And nukes as a deterrent.
Hubris – especially *vicarious* hubris – never seems to work out.
Besides the rambling, your point being?
Besides the ad hom masquerading as plea for clarity, your point being?
My point is that you lack a point in most of your posts. It’s just confusion you deliver.
https://media.makeameme.org/created/game-set-match-egu7z7.jpg
But that was exactly the point I just made. Both of us can’t be right, which calls for an explanation of context. So… your point being?
Then give a clear and concise explanation instead of rambling.
Make no mistake I’m all ears, but I won’t suck up to the herd of doom and gloom. I consider group therapy disgusting.
Give me a date, yes go ahead, tell me, when does the smoke and mirrors of the ones and zeros disperse in the chaos of a deflationary death spiral?
“Give me a date, yes go ahead, tell me, when does the smoke and mirrors of the ones and zeros disperse in the chaos of a deflationary death spiral?”
Like I said before, whenever they cannot be exchanged for enough resources for enough people to be considered valuable. The “smoke and mirrors” isn’t hiding some secret arcane power. It’s just hiding the fact – from *everyone* – that the current system of resource consumption will likely collapse in the coming decades.
It is already collapsing. Don’t you read the same blog you are posting in?
If you mean that information processing machines churning through the ones and zeros of the monetary transaction systems are some ‘arcane power’, then please shut off your computer because it’s all tin foil hattery going on inside.
“If you mean that information processing machines churning through the ones and zeros of the monetary transaction systems are some ‘arcane power’, then please shut off your computer because it’s all tin foil hattery going on inside.”
Lol… let me try and make sense of your reasoning. You said algorithmic trading is “smoke and mirrors” for keeping everyone oblivious of the techno-dystopia. Then I said it’s not hiding any arcane power to create illusions of prosperity (just part of a much larger process), so that means I believe my computer has arcane power?
Do you understand the workings of your computer and large scale information processing machines? Do you even understand the basics of computation?
Mankind still hasn’t figured out the intricate workings of one of the most complicated biological information processing machine – the human brain.
Yes my dear rambling instant doom and gloom advocate. You are clueless.
“Do you understand the workings of your computer and large scale information processing machines? Do you even understand the basics of computation?”
Yes, but my criticism of your view isn’t that you think the workings of a computer are awesome. I think so too. The issue is how relevant that fact is to the nature of collapse i.e whether the increase in production efficiency gained from automation and digitisation has fundamentally altered the nature of industrial economies.
“Yes my dear rambling instant doom and gloom advocate. You are clueless.”
Well, at least this time you preceded the pointless ad hom with an appeal to authority. Keep trying, please.
The efficiency gains is staggering when comparing automation and robotics with a human workforce.
A computer and industrial robot requires a minimum of surplus energy while in use. Basically it is all electrical energy, some minor service and spare parts.
Now what does a human workforce require? Well, for a start a salary to impress the others by means of showing ones success in life with the ordinary prestigious gimmicks such as large cars, houses and frivolous spending.
Then after the attraction phase ends, the kids usually arrive, and boy, is that a huge resource waste of epic proportions.
On top of that is the sick days, the vacations, the paid leave. The jockeying everywhere and nowhere sitting inside the SUV burning a valuable raw material in the process.
No industrial robot or a computer ever has such unreasonable demands for convenience. They simply does not care nor are programmed for enjoying the spoils and wastes of the civilization they serve.
The lone industrial robot and computer inside an air conditioned production floor is essentially for free when it comes to energy footprint.
If you disagree with that, then, well, it’s time for a little break from the Internetz and time for some reflection and meditation to set your mind straight.
Again, the issue is what that efficiency gain is worth *without* the overall energy/economic system, of which it is a relatively minuscule aspect.
The labour of robots is only ‘free’ when they are producing things that can be used by the rest of the economy in a way that offsets the cost of using/making them + the things which they assist in making. Minus the large-scale activities of the icky humans, those costs are unsustainable. There is no point to a robot making more cars per day than 50 humans if not enough humans are buying the cars or the oil they run on.
The usual objection: they can do the same thing on a smaller, more sustainable scale for far fewer humans (the dreaded techno- dystopian ‘them’). But this is really the same argument phrased differently, i.e robots/technology ‘making’ things more efficiently/sustainably in a vacuum, irrespective of the larger, unsustainable system that supports the efficiency gain to begin with.
our commercial existence is predicated on the interplay between each other–buying–selling–killing –copulating etc etc—it’s what humans do
robots are a dead end, they can only produce objects that no other robot can buy or consume
that is the ultimate problem with the pervasive ”robotic fantasy’
i’ve tried to explain it here
https://extranewsfeed.com/robots-cannot-survive-automation-f45605a58ad7
The robots make a car when the order appears in the factory and business automation system.
It does not need a constant flow of “work” to pay its bills, all it needs is energy, spare parts, service as it wears down and instructions from the control system.
You can not apply Henry Fordian theory of economy on a finite world where then richer gets all the spoils from the highly automated production process.
It is time to open up the eyes. Smell those newly brewed beans of economic and energy computational liquid.
Now take a sip of it and enjoy.
“It does not need a constant flow of “work” to pay its bills, all it needs is energy, spare parts, service as it wears down and instructions from the control system.”
This is logically possible, of course, as a lot of things are. If energy, spare parts and servicing are guaranteed by processes other than “a constant flow of “work to pay its bills”, no problem.
But from what we know about our finite world, those things are – like automation – just other variables in the massive energy-economic system. They cannot be altered, upgraded or downgraded independent of all the other components. On demand and relatively durable energy extraction and conversion to spare parts/services/etc at a certain EROEI is only possible if the larger economy can sustain it. It is asinine to assert as possible a “factory and business automation system” having access to the *extremely* diverse basket of resources (+ processing of same) and services required for the most basic industrial amenities.
“The robots make a car when the order appears in the factory and business automation system.” This assumes that #1 the resources are available to build the car. #2 the transportation infrastructure is available to move the finished parts to the robots claws. #3 There are still people with jobs to afford to order the car.
Clear minded thinker. I salute you.
Now watch this:
https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU
Humans need not apply? Really? Without humans there are no robots!
It is a nice theory as long as there is surplus energy driving real economic growth.
A French engineer truth bombs.
https://youtu.be/pggA6_9aW5c
Uhm, sorry we ran almost all Yankovichi stuff here month – years ago (videos, papers), that guy is default doomer albeit offering “bridging” policy solutions..
I know, I got it from here.
🙄
brilliant lecture
but he stole all my best lines
Although the people retire at 63 in the Czech Republic, you would not be satisfied with your pension and need a job for additional income.
+Ed> People should be cautious with supposedly rational relocation choices, as the history of CEE region is simply ever repeating vortex of crisis, followed by catching up to the West, that’s chiefly result of the position in the middle of the area/continent, open to influences/attacks from all directions.
Further, we don’t know if we get eventual mass wake up and proper reconquest at least in some countries of the “former” West & Scandinavia or this ongoing road to New Istanbul-Mogadishu is now set in stone..
We don’t know where the new boundary and likely new reversed order iron curtain is going to drop, is it going to be on the axis Poland – Czech – Austria / Hungary – Bavaria – Balkans or further to the East?
Moreover given the resources to people ratio the most sensible thing is to move to Russia asap, way before the big inrush wave, when much tougher screening/selection at the incoming border (and the following long naturalization process) starts to happen.
And obviously to deal with the culture shock (on some level) is not for everybody, because this is about Russian heartland, very peculiar countryside after-all, there is no point hiding in Petersburg or Moscow metro areas..
The US is a pretty awesome place.
With a reformed legal system and health care close to the model of Switzerland and you’d have a winner until the end of the century.
https://flaggor.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/usa_50.jpg?w=300&h=157
https://flaggor.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/usa_50.jpg
@ saarneki
Financial Post article dated Tuesday June 17, 2008:
“World crude oil production has topped out at 85 million barrels per day even as demand keeps climbing, helping to drive a stunning surge in prices, billionaire oil investor T. Boone Pickens said on Tuesday.
“I do believe you have peaked out at 85 million barrels a day globally,” Mr. Pickens, who heads BP Capital hedge fund with more than US$$ billion under management, said during testimony to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.
The United States alone has been using 21 million barrels of the 85 million and producing about 7 of the 21, so if I could take just a minute on this point, the demand is about 86.4 million barrels a day, and when the demand is greater than the supply, the price has to go up until it kills demand, ” Mr Pickens told lawmakers.
U.S. crude futures have risen by a third since the start of the year and more than sixfold since 2002 as surging demand from China and other developing nations outpaces new production.
Oil slipped on Tuesday, a day after touching a record high near US $140 a barrel, but remained above US 133 a barrel.
Mr. Pickens who announced a US 2 billion investment in wind energy earlier this year, told lawmakers during a hearing on renewable electricity that he expected “the price of oil will go up further.” Without alternatives, the cost of foreign oil will drain the United States of more resources, he said.
Russia is a too big country, when energy declines, the transportation becomes a big problem on such a big distances. Overcomming its harsh climate is another energy issue. The countryside of Russia is depopulating, too.
it will depopulate to what it was around pre 1800
by then groups will be too far apart to conflict with each other
the same thing will happen in the usa and in all major land masses
The available net energy can be decreased too by
1. Rising costs of complexity (See Joseph Tainter, Collapse of complex societies)
2. Unfavorable results of war: After WW1 , the available net-Energy of the Germans was decreased by the resulting “peace” treaty of Versailles. By this treaty Britain and France reduced the net energy of the Germans while they increased their the net energy of their own population.
3. Environmental degradation and weather extremes, which degrease the availability of food. The cold blooded, main driver behind the massive mass killings carried out by Nazi-Germany in WW2 seems to have been the fear of a repetition of the food crisis in WW1, which was the main driver of the revolutions in 1917 in Russia and in 1918 in Germany. You can improve the availability of food per person for your own voters or group, by robbing and killing people which live in your country or in an area you have conquered, but which do not belong to your own group. We learned to condemn such cruel politics because had the luck to have enough net energy to produce enough food.
The Germans then perfected some very old strategies, to rise the the available net energy:
These strategies are:
1. Find wealthy but week minorities and rob or even kill them, so you can get their net energy and use it to raise the net energy of the majority and its leaders.
2. Rob other countries. I if they needed and you chance are reasonable, you may go to war and conquer and may be enslave those other countries. The Nazis finally tried this an it was only the abundance of the US-Oil and the oil driven US-Industry, which stopped and defeated them.
See also: http://www.eiaonline.com/history/bloodforoil.htm
and
The MAIN Reason Why Germany Lost WW2 – OIL ( https://youtu.be/kVo5I0xNRhg )
Oil and Grand Strategy: Great Britain and Germany, 1918–1941 ( https://youtu.be/RgxEBGAXNRU )
The Germans and other western European people surly will not repeat this kind of net energy maximizing. They will rather just die, while the smartest may leave for Russia and other luckier countries. But China, Turkey and some others may find it reasonable to repeat those cruel strategies.
Let us be thankful the US never robs for oil.
Need is the mother of all inventions.
Africa is hooked on polyrythmic music. One can’t build a polyrythmic engine, that’s why they live in the third world.
Well…now someone has invented a polyrythmic electric dynamo/engine with an energy efficiency over 110% by using the force of the magnets instead of working against them. It doesn’t break the laws of physics. The universe used energy to produce the magnets.
Will this save us? No. But at least we are trying.
Need is the mother of all inventions…and now we really need to find a new energy source.
Who is willing to bet against monkey IQ?
thank you Gail for another good article explaining the nature of our problem, I was watching a you tube video from the ‘ sustainability cult’ explaining their plan I think everyone should watch this video as it shows to me that the sustainability way of thinking is the culprit responsible for collapsing our financial system we are doomed to collapse because we are dealing with a brainwashed fanatical cult who think they know it all.
sorry about that here is the link to the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mV0r7bJxpsU
I listened to the beginning. The speaker starts off with all of the expected buzzwords. “I have a vision, of how we can align . . . Save the planet and make money.”
VIX spiked over 37 in February…
has been generally declining since…
today it dropped from 13.53 to 12.86…
minus 5%…
when will this madness end?
Robots without consumers are like the Kadashians without an audience; all ass.
They seem quite narcissistic and self absorbed. They’ll do just fine without any audience.
Just like the robots who won’t care a bit about for whom they work.
https://www.sciencealert.com/new-statistics-reveal-the-scale-of-robots-replacing-human-workers
https://www.sciencealert.com/images/articles/processed/robots_everywhere_600.jpg
yes, robots are amazing…
once built, they never require maintenance or spare parts…
they surely work forever…
they also need no energy source such as FF to do their work…
they are like autonomous beings…
like perpetual motion machines…
robots are amazing…
Did you even read the article you posted? The “unsettling scale” revealed is just 1.75 robots per 1000 workers. A long way to go until your fantasy of walking among robots in the streets becomes reality.
Yep, that’s what I wrote few days ago, even the St. Elon of the GreenMoneyMountainMonastery verified this recently, robots/AI can’t and won’t replace “all” human workers at assembly jobs for a long time, eh never.
You misunderstand the effects of computerization and robotification process.
They are most in effect where it matters. In making economic policy, algorithmic trading. Weapon systems and artificial intelligence augmented “dumb” systems, such as making medical recommendations and image analysis supporting medical staff and as time progresses will be introduced into the 2025-30 year model cars equipped with ASIL D classed computerized safety systems for autonomous driving assisted by radars, night vision and stereo cameras.
The same holds true for all long haul transport such as semis, container vessels, trains, airplanes and public transportation.
If you fail to see this, well, you better find a way to cure your mental myopia.
Automation and computerisation only “work” (=made to work, as opposed to actual understanding or motivation) in very specific scenarios, which occur only in specific environments, which are themselves dependent on conditions out of the control of same. The rebuttal, as usual, is “vital condition X will be made less vital by automation/other tech Y in itself”. And that, of course, always requires ignoring the actual vital condition in question. Like algorithmic trading supposedly creating smoke and mirrors which will prevent people from deducing that lack of money/resources = bad economy.
Really it’s a *very* simple point which has been explained ad nauseum both here and elsewhere to people who insist on its naivety/falsehood/pessimism, whilst consigning objective critics to some variant of the doomer cultist label.
And your point being?
Barely intelligible text is barely intelligible.
You lack capacity to think clearly and it shows in your text.
I clearly stated why it is false to claim that technology can eventually transcend the conditions which allow it to exist merely by becoming more efficient.
Thank you, that was much better.
Are you even answering the statements I made and instead debate something completely different?
Try thinking the next time instead of rambling about irrelevant matters I already discuss in other posts.
It wasn’t better. Just a condensation of my previous, equally coherent, point.
Calling any criticism of one’s view “rambling” without any context is just pointless trolling. It isn’t even funny.
Well, didn’t I give you credit for your more clear and concise point?
Don’t be so one dimensional, will ya?
The point was more concise, not more clear, which was my previous point. Now, can you make a point that isn’t about you searching in vain for points in my one sentence “ramblings”?
Most of your comments are irrelevant ramblings and quite frankly quite uninteresting. But don’t take me the wrong way.
worldof can also be a bit rambly at times, but at least he can offer some clear insights at times which makes it worthwhile.
Tim is one of the better posters with is excellent command of well written English.
FE is just FE and can be amusing at times. But he also fail to take important aspects into consideration because it does not suit the juicy narrative of instant doom and gloom.
So basically a poster is insightful to the extent he has agreed with you recently. That makes you about as objective as any other human being on this planet. If you really want clarity, try making a point that isn’t packed with unqualified assertions.
Well for a start, you could try changing perspective and see how it fits the current state of affairs.
Don’t be so one dimensional and simplistic in your reasoning.
Instead use your thinking to offer me and others a diving mask into the depths where the big fish swim and where we only are allowed to view the ripples on the surface through MSM.
Make no mistake; I am not excluding the possibility of an instant collapse. It’s just have a low probability to occur in my book of reason.
WTF are you talking about? You know nothing about my perspective except what you have falsely asserted it as being.
Your perspective is nothing more than circling the wagons around the insta doom and gloom core of null and void.
Which your call to arms against opposing views is direct evidence of.
https://coherence.com.au/curlew/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/1200-596307-29488060-1.jpg
You mean like how I disagree with pretty much every instadoom theory on this blog? Also, a view that I oppose necessitates my opposition to it. That isn’t evidence of much other than… opposition.
Your circle reasoning and herd mentality tells a different story.
Stop faking it.
Constant recourse to ad hominems is the best indicator of herd mentality. The problem for you is that the herd with your sort of mentality is largely absent on this blog.
Elon had to shut down his robots and hand assemble his Teslas to meet the production goals. Robots are not going to do much once the system of JIT deliver breaks down.
Look like I’m needed in attack mode against this new iteration of smite the fantasist, redshift
Yes – he must be dealt with by Jungle Law.
This is Redguy’s fate…
Enjoy!
https://youtu.be/j3nGayLpdaA
Not even the OFW doom and gloom herd mentality can outrun Redshifts jaws of reason and mental agility.
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/011/680/1fc.jpg
*eaten alive*
Tastes like…… Blood soaked victory!!
Troll.
Can you hear it?
https://media.giphy.com/media/Kogujap7iH67e/giphy.gif
Yes, that’s the gnashing of teeth of the doom and gloom herd in fury who gets it handed to them.
Enjoy!
OFW is in fact quite diverse. Pretty much the entire collapse spectrum is on display. But continue with the pointless ad homs because no one is scared of your edgily nihilistic techno-dystopian bedtime story. Crazy Eddy does it far, far better.
Do you understand what an ad hominem in fact is?
Just because someone gives you another point of view and delivers it with harsh rhetoric does not constitute an ad hominem.
Furthermore, you and others in the little doom and gloom safe space mistake comedy and wit for aggression.
You should perhaps take a a little break from OFW and come back with new material and better counter arguments.
Attempting to discredit a view by calling its adherents cultists is an ad hominem fallacy. If they’re obviously not cultists, it is a *pointless*, i.e. self-defeating, ad hominem fallacy.
Oh really, well, they show all the signs of the generic doomsday cult.
Yes, I much rather have less of a doom and gloom schtick here and more of a scientific and funny one.
Would you agree?
“Oh really, well, they show all the signs of the generic doomsday cult.”
Such as? The best sign is homogeneous thinking, but like I said we’re pretty diverse when it comes to views of collapse. Of course there are certain commonly accepted premises, viz collapse cannot be avoided, but that isn’t nearly enough to be a cult.
I advocate that the collapse already is here and managed by CB’s and GO’s utilizing information processing machines to curb chaos and redistribute wealth from the consumerists to the productive, smart and powerful in a Darwinian fashion on a planet with severe resource constraints.
While you and the herd wait for a cataclysmic event that ain’t gonna happen.
https://static.fjcdn.com/pictures/Sad+puppy_56557a_3778962.jpg
Saarnecky, don’t get too full of yourself. This blog has been talking about the collapse that is currently happening in the periphery for quite a while. It is happening, and will continue to wreck havoc around the world. It is and has been well understood, at least on this blog, that the collapse will first 3rd world, then gradualy encroach on the core.
Reinforcements at last!
Yes, let’s fly some bullets on the heretic.
https://robertscribbler.com/
‘4 Million EVs on the Road Globally — To Hit 5 Million in About Six Months’
“Nearly 2 million sales projected for this year. From January to July, Tesla took the crown as top-selling EV automaker.”
I just had the pleasure of test drivning a new plug in hybrid.
There is no way a pure fossil burner can longer compete with those characteristics, smooth, silent and with a smooth acceleration and linear analogue response to the throttle input.
The piston equipped fossil burner only kicked in when I floored it, which was an annoyance.
Old and new in a transitory hodgepodge. But it was nice.
Quite a few of your comments are fine. But the quantity and assertiveness of your posts gets to be somewhat overwhelming for other commenters. So I am putting your comments on prior moderation, for at least a while.
Excellent – that saves me from mass deleting them.
Not trying to tell you what to do Gail, but, can you apply this moderation standard more generally?
Maybe a good compromise would be to do a variation of what I used to rant about in other programs, especial electronic medical records (EMR) and electronic hospital records (EHR) which are loaded with extraneous, redundant, impractical, distracting operations.
Simply have a separate window where all the useless programming that you don’t use can be removed from the current productive operation.
In the same way, simply have a window called the dump box. That way you don’t censor material, you simply drop it in a convenient, easily accessible dumpster which if people are so inclined, can rummage through in their spare time.
My brother (a psychiatrist working indirectly for the State of Minnesota) recently left one employer for another, over the issue of coding of all of his patient contacts. The first employer (a clinic) required a huge amount of coding, leading him to need to spend hours per day on this project, coming in early and working late. The second employer (a hospital group) doesn’t demand nearly as much. I believe he had to take a pay cut to do this, but he felt it was worth it.
I have a niece who is a dentist. She reports that the coding requirements she works with are absurd as well.
There becomes a limit to what I can do, unless I spend an awfully lot of my time moderating comments. Doing this also tends to make the comments that appear be very much “bunched up” in terms of timing. There are several commenters whose comments I have been checking in advance.
Also, the way I moderate comments doesn’t show me what the images/videos are that are linked to, actually look like. When the images and videos are offensive, then I need to go back and forth between screens to see if they are a problem. This makes it harder to moderate commenters who show offensive images.
It is interesting to watch the OFW crowd together huddle up in a cozy safe space of doom and gloom.
Where is that finacical crash you all have been predicting?
As the observant reader and poster observes, Tim mostly, it coincides almost perfectly with the rapid advancement in energy extraction and consumption methods.
Come on guys, you need a fresh perspective in your safe space. A tad of comedy and taunts won’t hurt.
The financial crash looks to be not far away–when the Trump tax cuts lose their effect, for one thing. They seem to be what is holding the system up right now.
It has been that way for how long now?
It is not how it will pan out in the end, I am sure you all are aware of that but suppress that knowledge due to prestige and flawed, limited reasoning.
“Where is that finacical crash you all have been predicting?”
2008 !
It was interrupted by the Central Banks creating trillions of dollars to ressurect the global economic system. Read Hank Paulson’s book and he’ll clue you in on how bad it was going to get if the TBTF Banks were not bailed out. According to Hank Paulson, the Global Economy would have come to a halt and Martial Law would have been implemented with tanks rolling in major US cities to quell the unrest.
Today, after all the bailouts and money printing 2008 looks like a blip on the screen. The problem is now 10x worse today than it was in 2008. The world is hitting debt and resource limits. What’s the global debt limit at now, $250 trillion not counting unfunded liabilities? It’s why you are seeing at the periphery countries like Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Turkey either in free fall mode or in big trouble. Then there all the problems currently occurring in the EU with immigration with regards to Brexit. Countries that are a part of the EU are also having their problems right now. Then you add the current Trade Wars being waged.
Do you want to put a Happy Face on what was said above?
You have to be a realist and it’s a concern that no one in the MSM is telling you anything about this. Instability is growing worldwide.
Many of us here aren’t doom and gloomers as you suggest but realize that the math is not adding up and that it’s all a magic show that those in power are performing. One day and who knows when, but what happened in 2008 will reappear but many times worse than it did.
2008, that’s soon 11 years ago. Besides, the CB’s handled that situation without breaking a sweat.
But for sure, keep on reiterating that mantra. I am sure it will keep you content as the world energy and production capability and capacity continue to grow.
Predicting that doom and gloom is 2 years away is lazy reasoning.
Give a hard date and then reject your flawed hypothesis as nothing indeed will happen. Then go find greener pastures for your efforts.
It took 10 years from the 1929 stock market crash in the US until World War II broke out in Europe, and even longer before the US got involved.
We are dealing with a collapsing debt bubble, too much wage disparity, and failing energy supplies again this time.
We really don’t know exactly how the situation will play out, even though we think we do. Timing of how a complex system will evolve is not as clear as we would like it to be.
“2008, that’s soon 11 years ago. Besides, the CB’s handled that situation without breaking a sweat.”
The system collapsed in 2008, i’m not predicting when the SHTF but it’s baked in the cake. And you are delusional if you think destabilizing the global banking and financial system by the central banks printing money out of thin air was the way to handle things. And no they did not handle the situation just fine, they made the problem worse. But I guess in LaLaLand it’s OK.
“But for sure, keep on reiterating that mantra. I am sure it will keep you content as the world energy and production capability and capacity continue to grow.”
I call BS here because all the charts that are available shows global energy supply is in decline, and cannot meet future global energy consumption. Even BP says the world has roughly 50.2 yrs left of no oil supplies left. If you want to count shale oil, then again you are way off. Shale oil is good to make gasoline but is worthless for anything else.
https://d3hxt1wz4sk0za.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Global-Conventional-Oil-Gas-Discoveries-768×533.png?x65756
https://d3hxt1wz4sk0za.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Global-Oil-Consumption-2016-vs-Discoveries-768×550.png?x65756
Mankind will stuff anything that burns inside a heat engine to persist.
As Redshift noted. All economic policy is run by supercomputers.
Your predictions of collapse fail to take into account the workings of information processing systems.
Your money is:
101010101111101010101010
Inside a memory bank somewhere in a data center. Make no mistake:
10101011010111011010101
Does not care, because it is not a physical quantity like your dollar bills and gold coins.
Gold is just another raw material for engineering purposes, the same with silver and diamonds. Not to mention the worthless paper that the dollar is printed upon.
No one really care about real “bling” these days. It’s all about games and gadgets.
saarneki> despite your comments to be considered lite trolling, but it’s true occasionally many of us succumb to it as well, because the resource limits/financial reset/doomero scene has been plagued with (false-premature-bad analysis) instant predictions for decades..
Dr. Tim said the current fin-energy system malfunctions before ~2025, McCoy predicts before ~2030 (as geopolitical reset not proper collapse).. Both sensible outlooks, but we never know for sure.
worldof, I take great interest in your posts and I agree that the energy situation is severe specially for the poor population in the developing countries such as China and India which will never, ever, experience the spoils of a full-on industrialized civilization without energy constraints. That is the true tragedy of our consumerism.
As we climb down the ladder of prosperity the population surplus will be headed towards the same situation as the two countries above.
The BNP will of course continue to rise as it is not longer related to anything physical.
Only a currency based on an energy measure would reveal this severe recession in prosperity as Gail and others have pointed out.
But money represented as ones and zeros provides the much needed smoke and mirrors for the inevitable wealth distribution as mankind descend from our high castles in the air kept afloat by the hot air from burning the abundance of fossil fuels.
That is in essence my message. With some wit and comedy baked in of course.
You might disagree with me, but then you’d be wrong.
😊
BNP is the Swedish abbreviation of GDP.
Sometimes these abbreviations gets mixed up in my mind.
😑
Problem: it’s more efficient to burn the fuel right where it’s used rather than 100 miles away in a coal plant, transfer the energy in wires, then charge a battery and finally discharge the battery into the electric motor.
Not necessarily as nowadays most of these individual components of e-traction (batt, inverter, emotor, charger, access., .. ) run very close 100% efficiency. So, in aggregate multiplying it all together you get ~90% + overall efficiency at the wheels. Theoretically, as there is the additional major bummer with batts, which must be derated at least 3x times again further for under/over discharge and longevity, hence you are limited to say usable ~65% of your specified batt capacity. Mind you this is effectively only a range issue after-all so you might have to add this into the overall efficiency calcs or not, it depends.
Nevertheless if you compare contrast it with funny 3cylinder small displacement turbo charged ICE engines of today, the longevity is gone (as opposed to old high displacement motors), the parts and consumables this crap eats per each 100k km of duty is relatively insane..
Haven’t seen anything yet that runs with “100% efficiency”
“run very close 100%” equals in my book achieved upper 94-98% efficienciency,
so not sure where you see a problem in that..
The problem is building and maintaining this long networked system, all the way to the away-from-home charging stations.
Also, solar tends to overproduce during the daytime, especially in the spring/fall and on weekends. So we need people to be charging their cars during the day, and on weekends. This means a lot of away-from-home charging, especially on sunny days.
I ran into someone’s view of efficiencies yesterday, posted on Facebook:
If this is true, adding charging stations is the downfall of the system. Also, just keeping up the grid system, so the whole apparatus will work.
Hydro power plants are close to 100% efficiency due to advanced turbines and generators.
Modem combined cycle power plants reach up to 65% efficiency.
But it really does not matter. Coal will be burned whre there is an abundance of Coal. Petroleum will be burned where there is an abundance of it.
Cheapest to extract and to shove inside a heat engine is what matters. Some efficiency losses, so what. Just burn more.
Gail, those cited numbers on EV efficiency (before grid charging, transmission, powerplant) are way off today’s OEM reality, as I wrote above, at the vehicle end it’s more than 90% because most of the individual components are 94-98%.. If you meant charging stations (not mere fancy plugs) as proper fast charging – that’s a luxury and PR stunt mostly, because owners know this shortens the lifecycle out of the batts – so use it sporadically or never..
I’m not advocating the feasibility or likelyhood of this overall transition (or even making it renewables based), it simply sort of works at specific conditions only, more densely structured countries with favorable grid mix..
I am fairly certain that most cars in the world do not have garages. If EVs are to be used somewhere besides the US (in fact, rich parts of the US), someone needs to provide pay-for-use charging facilities. Most of these will probably have to be fast charging stations, because people will not sit around all day waiting for their cars to charge.
With oversupply of electricity from solar being mostly a daytime event, we probably are talking about daytime charging, not night time charging. Night time charging would make sense where there is a lot of baseload nuclear, but this seems to be going away–partly because of age, and partly because of the pricing damage wind and solar are causing. Otherwise, owners would need to charge them when the wind blows, whenever that may be.
Again, you spoke about the “range anxiety” factor, as most of commutes are way less than 100mi daily.. for which nightly charging and some noon top up is adequate combo.
Besides the “best practice” scenario is rail + light EVs (assist bicycles) – that offers brutal fuel consumption shift (dozens of %), most importantly providing a time window to even front run the depletion treadmill for a while, thus creating buffer to decide-adapt what’s next.
Is this going to be applied, most probably not.
worldof,
You forgot fossil fuel burning range extender EV’s that is coming en masse now.
No it’s ~60% vs ~20%.
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/evtech.shtml
Highly advantageous if directly compared. Not so much if lacking, as you say, “favourable grid mix”.
Great – 4 million vehicles that are manufactured using fossil fuels … and that are charged using coal generated electricity …. and that are sold ONLY because of massive subsidies.
Is that the point you were trying to make?
“Is that the point you were trying to make?”
Probably a Greenie who thinks EV will save the world.
I am forever amazed by Tesla purchasers who bring their vehicle in for a fix … and have to wait months for a part…. and who do not bash in the face of the manager of the Tesla sales shop…
Nope. People will tolerate a lot — if they think they are saving the world
Shocking words from the Hopium Pastor himself, Chris Martenson, even he’s coming around to the fact that we’re screwed and alternative energy isn’t going to come in riding on a White Horse to save the day:
https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114334/whole-system-rigged
“Anecdote: “Electric car sales are up 40% in Europe!”
Somehow this is proof that we’re on the right track. Electric cars are going to rapidly replace internal combustion cars, and thereby solve all the issues related to the world’s addiction to fossil fuels.
Basic data: “There’s not enough cobalt or lithium to even replace 25% of all cars on the road, let alone 100%. EV cars still consume extraordinary resources, and release a huge amount of carbon in their manufacture. Massive subsidies are required to make them economically attractive, even to wealthy citizens of wealthy nations, so they aren’t well suited to the bulk of the world’s population. And if these cars were somehow all powered by electrcity from solar and wind, those energy sources are still themselves massively dependent on fossil fuels for their mining, manufacture, transportation, installation and replacement.”
Electric carmakers prefer lightweight aluminum over steel to maximize range: Tesla builds the body and chassis of its Model S almost entirely from about 410 lbs (190 kg) of aluminum. Average total aluminum content per car is expected to grow from roughly 397 lbs per car in 2015 to 565 lbs by 2028. The highly energy-intensive processes involved in aluminum production mean that a car’s worth of aluminum costs about 30% more in emitted CO2 than a car’s worth of steel. In China, the world’s leading manufacturer of EVs, 14 tons of CO2 is emitted for every ton of aluminum produced, three times more than the CO2 emitted by Alcoa, the U.S.’s largest aluminum producer. China now worries that their dirty smelting operations mean that switching to electric cars will actually make their smog problem worse.
“If the USA had 10% more petrol cars by 2020, air pollution would claim 870 more lives. A similar increase in electric ones would cause 1,617 more deaths a year, mostly because of the coal burned,” said Danish researcher Bjorn Lomborg.
EVs’ intensive copper use—an electric car uses about 6 km of copper wire weighing 45 kg, compared to a conventional auto’s 20 kg of copper—also poses a carbon emissions problem. In the mid-1800s, copper ore contained about 10% usable copper, but over the course of the twentieth century, that purity has decreased to less than 1%, making the mining and production of copper extremely energy- and carbon-intensive. The energy used to smelt copper increases exponentially as the ore grade falls below 1%. The new copper mines being constructed to meet increased demand have to be factored into the carbon footprint of electric vehicles—and in general, new copper ore stocks being developed are deeper and require more energy to exploit than currently productive reserves.
What about the power grids that charge EVs’ batteries? Energy sources vary wildly by country. Globally, in 2014, 66% of global energy came from coal (29%), oil (22%), and gas (5%). China, the country with the largest number of EVs on the road, got 72% of its energy from coal alone in 2014; the United States produced 68% of its energy from fossil fuels, including coal (38%) and gas (30%) in 2014. Coal use in the United States is trending downward as a proportion of overall energy use, partially due to the new shale gas deposits being exploited by fracking.
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/2017/11/28/teslas-coal-powered-cars-and-trucks
“… we expose the truly frightening contagion currently decimating a long list of emerging market countries and explain how it threatens to bring down the world economy with it. Collapse happens from the outside in, and the periphery is falling fast…
Yes, the entire system is rigged. But when a breaking point is reached, and things get so bad they spiral out of the control of the manipulators, Look out below!”
oh, no!
I have never heard that this is happening…
oh, my!
what are we to do?
I’m so afraid!
how will I sleep tonight?
the end is near!
If we overcome one resource shortage problem, we simply move on to the next.
As Redshift noted. The transportation will be utilizing fossil fuel burning range extenders to augment the electric power train.
Direct drive Otto and Diesel engines are a thing of the past.
There are an estimated 1Billion cars on the road. 99.6% run on gasoline and diesel. Still have a long way to go to 10% penetration, and even that wouldn’t matter for the environment or “ability for society to live fossil free”.
Once there was 100% horses on the roads.
Now the horses are a quite expensive hobby for the plebs with some surplus income to spend on a gimmick mostly intended for women.
Oil power replaced the horse power. Oil is far more energy dense and was much cheaper, cleaner and convenient than horses. To do to oil what oil did to horses will require an much more energy dense fuel source that is cheaper than oil, more scaleable than oil and more convenient than oil. So, what is this energy source? And you can’t say solar and wind because #1 they require fossil fuels to build. #2 They are far less energy dense than oil. So, where is this magical unicorn exhaust going to come from?
it’s part of the american dream
If you kindly could stop derailing threads it would improve the discussion.
Consumption habits in the west will inevitably be adjusted to the new reality of worldwide energy policy and supply constraints and pricing of which mostly is under direct control of the U.S.
”adjustment to supply constraints” is a convoluted way of saying ”shortages”
as the employment/wages (consumption habits) of everyone in the industrialised world is entirely dependent on free flowing and increasing volumes of fossil fuels, that will mean chaos and civil disorder—if for no better reason than supermarkets will be empty inside a week
pricing will have no effect on that situation. Pouring money down oilwells will not increase the supply of oil.
and no—there will be no alternatives.
Did the free world change from using oil for both heating and transportation to basically using only oil for transportation?
Will the free world change from using exclusively petroleum powered transportation to vehicles with electric drive lines?
Obviously the answer is yes on both questions. You will simply not be able to purchase a exclusively fossil fueled engine vehicle.
Please refrain from derailing threads just because the message doesn’t fit your point of view.
how indigenous energy is used, forms the support base of all economic systems
transport is a function of the prosperity of that economic system. (feet, horses, carts, trucks planes etc)
Transport of itself does not create wealth, transport consumes energy, therefore the indigenous energy production must exceed the use of it to maintain the function of the system, of which transport is a part.
we build transport systems to fit our commercial environment. If the fuel supply dries up or even goes into short supply, the entire system will fail because it will be impossible to prioritise one usage over another.
electric vehicles cannot function outside a fossil-fuelled environment other than in very limited applications.
Moving from A to B can’t sustain our lifestyle, it’s what we produce at A and B that matters. There will not be enough electrical energy or raw materials to sustain that production–no matter how prices are adjusted.
The issue is prices too low for producers and their governments. One of the issues is that insufficient tax revenue can be collected.
Consumption patterns of the West are high because oil prices are too low for producers. The West is not going to raise oil prices for producers.
You take our personal habits such as motoring and consumption as a given, just as the the horse and slaves was taken as a given in then past.
One of the major reductions measured in true wealth and prosperity is the use of personal transport and overconsumption.
The resource usage will be cut for the people of the free world and we’ll be better off.
The corporations who are aligned in this new order will be bailed out, again and again. One example:
Electric car manufacturer Tesla who popularized the EV by making them cool.
This transformation is as inevitable as the oil age is coming to an end. Besides, this discussion serve no point since it is beyond our control.
You are a total f789ing re t ard.
If I were to listen to you spew this drivel in person … I would have to suppress the urge to throw a vicious right cross to your jaw.
Now go back to DelusiSTAN and stay away
I was reading an article related to Gail’s new post entitled:”Mexico’s Energy Reform”. This title made me think for a minute. What is reform – make changes in (something, typically a social, political, or economic institution or practice) in order to improve it. Well, that means there is no such thing as “energy reform”. You either have energy or you don’t. You cannot improve energy. It is either there or it isn’t. The title is misleading.
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/strategy/articles/mexico-energy-reform-opportunity-knocks-oil-and-gas-consulting-services.html
When I was at the Biophysical Economics conference in New York in June, I talked to a fellow from Mexico. He was very concerned about the oil situation in Mexico. A combination of low oil prices and falling production was making the financial situation for the country increasingly perilous. He was concerned about the country heading in the direction of Venezuela.
So as has been said on many occasions, we are in a pickle because oil prices need to be high enough for the energy producers to make money from it but as the prices get higher it stalls the economy because EVERYTHING we eat, wear and use is based around fossil fuels. Our entire globalized networked just in time transportation infrastructure is all fossil fuel based. At some point the price won’t matter because the top and bottom price ceiling will meet and everyone will get squeezed in the middle.
If the price of oil gets too high people start cutting back, the economy stalls and goes in reverse. If prices are too low the energy producers and Govt’s go bankrupt, like in Venezuela except this is not just a Venezuela problem, it’s GLOBAL.
“At some point the price won’t matter because the top and bottom price ceiling will meet and everyone will get squeezed in the middle.”
I never thought of that as being the ultimate problem why eventually oil stays in the ground. The higher the price of extraction the higher it raises the consumer price bar so ultimately it puts the price of oil out of reach for the consumer and it all falls apart.
Yep… how do you reform a situation where production goes from 3.4M to 1.9M…. which the descent accelerating….
Behind the scenes… I am certain there is panic in Mexico…. the witched on among the elites will be moving assets offshore…
This is where people who do not believe in Peak Oil get into trouble …
I know people from Venezula — who have now left the country …. they stayed to long and now most of their assets are stranded (they remind me of White Russians… although they are not yet working as cleaning ladies and pro s titutes)…. who continue to believe that Maduro is the problem … if only Maduro could be unseated…. things would return to normal…
One such person was telling me that she could not understand why the Americans would not step in and get rid of the government….
I mentioned somewhat tongue in cheek (but not really) that they tend to only do that when resources – particularly oil — are involved… and what remains of the oil in Venezuela is worthless because of the low quality and expenses involved in extracting it…
I think she’s past the due date to make much cash on the street corner… I wonder if she has any other skills…. perhaps she can cook?
You would think that there would be even more panic in countries that have no oil, lets say Denmark and Sweden. But I guess these countries have learned the hard way that they need to find other ways to reach prosperity such as exporting cars and machines or other industrial goods and services. Mexico still has oil, industrial activity (car manufacturing), etc. Although it could be set up so that most of the wealth goes back to Ford, and not to Mexico…
It cetainly helps with having large Google and Facebook datacenters within the Swedish borders and a deep collaboration effort between the secret services of Sweden and the US.
And oh, lots of the western telecoms traffic is run through Ericsson networking gear. Go figure.
The Gripen fighter jet is a constant irritation of the US MIC. Which is a healthy thing, spawning collaboration efforts between SAAB and Boeing. And who knows what else behind the scenes.
Sweden is pretty much the US when it comes to realpolitik. The Trumpo doctrine transpires slow and steady into the nomenclature of Sweden.
I wish we could join Norway, the UK and intensify our US relations with a Swexit.
🇸🇪🇺🇸
🤣
Are you sure the “fantastic” economy isn’t just smoke and mirrrors. Europe is broke.
Hey cowboy lemme tell you a little secret:
All countries are “broke”.
Now whats new around here?
“It certainly helps with having large Google and Facebook datacenters within the Swedish borders…”
those datacenters were built by using massive amounts of FF…
they continue to run by the energy provided by massive amounts of FF…
Europe imports most of its FF…
this arrangement is quite temporary…
Good points!
Well, no. The datacenters are run by the hydro power stations and wind turbines in the north. Passively cooled by the cold climate.
It’s a win-win situation.
They are far too comfortable to understand their predicament: comfort induces amnesia as to the nature of physical reality and its cruelty.
The Brits are in much the same position: too well-off ,for far too long, to imagine it ever being otherwise. ..
when i sit and think about our fine leather Stressless lounge chairs, i think of all that cheap hydropower in Norway and Sweden. too bad they didn’t convert their North Sea oil and gas bonanza into coal imports when they had the chance. can’t eat gold.
I’ve just realised I have coined a term which might be useful in the collapse vocabulary, viz. “autistic techno-dystopian fallacy”. It refers to any idea of technological progress leading to – for whatever reason and by whatever means – a dystopian society in the real world. The ‘they” in the aforesaid society, due to their inherent goodness/badness/wisdom/foolishness/etc, have decided to use the technology available to them to render a great portion of the “us” or “them” useless, whilst oppressing and exploiting the remainder.
Thus, such a fallacy rests on two premises – a) a large % of people explicitly function as useless eaters of industrial production, which in turn generates wealth and power for “them” b) technological progress will eliminate the use of the useless eaters via some combination of increased efficiency and selectively decreased quantity of industrial production, thus allowing “them” to exercise absolute power over the eaters whilst maintaining on a smaller scale most of the aspects of the current industrial civilisation.
You should cut down on that thing going on between your ears. It isn’t healthy. Try thinking the next time.
https://youtu.be/vt_5wYNkPTI
Let me see if I have this fallacy right Jupiviv: Let the plebs build all the infrastructure and automate it then, eliminate the plebs; thus sustaining the monetarily wealthy for eternity in a techo-utopia. 🙂
Sounds about exactly what I would have done. One the system os free of the generic consumerists, then let the real party begin.
The real utopia for mankind, but with less people. I like it, yes, I like it a lot.
Unfortunately, none of us is in that club.
Shirley Redshift you can’t be serious. The real party? You mean collapse?
It depends on whose collapse and what is collapsing?
If you mean the mass consumption of the surpluses of the fossil fuel age, then yes. That’s us in the receiving end of that fake utopia promise.
The triage is already ongoing and people desperately migrate closer to the productive core. The CB’s are doing all in their power to keep chaos at bay by executing population control by all means necessary. TV, Netflix, YT, opiates, alcohol, more work for less.
If you fail to see this. Then I am sorry.
One thing is for sure. This joint will be kept lit until the end of this century. The media will be controlled by an iron fist and algorithm content creation.
No one except some fringe OCD autist crowd will care about these issues as the triage creeps closer home.
This is mental masturbation by our clueless friends here.
View it with amusement.
Yes, like the folks who think that once solar panels are built the will forever produce electricity and will never need replacing. All we have to do it build them and we will be “saved”. LOL. Remember, technology does not create energy – it consumes energy.
Here’s a trick to get the inbox for FW down from 135 – 70 … and miss out on nothing…
Search that new person’s name — Red something or other…. tick all the boxes… then delete….
Nah, those are the totally awesome posts. Shift click select and then delete all other posts.
http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/yes-awesome-oldschool.gif
Enjoy.
The only mental masturbation ongoing here is the insta crowd thinking that the Internet and computation will be brought down by some cataclysmic events among the bits and bytes of the economic transaction systems.
Listen cowboy: Your little perversion is not going to happen. 🤠
Computing will be the next thing to go right after financial collapse.
Computing IS the financial system. Your paper dollars are nothing. It represents bits and bytes in the monetary information system.
If you fail to see this, then turn off your computer and try this very elaborate thing called.
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/006/145/basic_math.jpg
http://img0.reactor.cc/pics/comment/%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B5-Chaos-%28Wh-40000%29-Warhammer-40000-%D1%84%D1%8D%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BC%D1%8B-875684.png
Greg, I have been saying this for years now.
I’ve also coined a term … DelusiSTANI…. you are a prime example
Shall we check oil today?
OIL (BRENT) PRICE COMMODITY
77.84 USD +0.32 (0.41%)
Pretty flat, but I’m sure one can see the direction——
The emerging markets are already starting to blow up under the pressure of oil at current prices coupled with the stronger $.
“Irene Cheung, senior strategist for Asia at ANZ, said that rising oil prices will be more of a concern, particularly for countries with current account deficits. That will be a factor that will weigh heavily on emerging currencies, she told CNBC.
“More expensive oil leads to a higher import bill for countries which are net importers of oil. Higher oil prices also lead to a widening current account deficit — a measure of the flow of goods, services and investments in and out of the country.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/31/argentine-peso-and-turkish-lira-crash-pressuring-emerging-currencies.html
Lets see what emerges—–
This is a new game, something we have never encountered– actual restriction on supply.
(at least until early 2019).
David Korowicz sums it up nicely in his ‘Trade Off’ paper:
“If the amount of affordable oil available to the global economy declines in real-time, and cannot be substituted in real-time, then economic contraction becomes inevitable. Economic contraction feeds back into further economic contraction. Sustained economic contraction is totally incompatible with the credit backing of the globalised economy as expressed through monetary systems, fractional reserve banking, fiat money, financial intermediation and all financial assets. The market ‘discovery’ of such an incompatibility could also be catastrophic.”
I love that last line: “The market ‘discovery’ of such an incompatibility could also be catastrophic.” LOL
‘discovery’
The market is sailing along then suddenly it discovers there is not enough cheap energy to keep going …. and the market says ‘WTF’ …. and sinks to the bottom of the ocean… a few DPs and tribesmen float about on pieces of wood for a day or two… before they succumb to the elements and sharks….
And the surface of the sea…. is calm.
“And, least we forget, the daily demand for crude oil – including biofuels – worldwide in 2010, was 86.4 million barrels per day. In 2018, it is expected to increase to approximately 99 million barrels per day. Also, in 2018 we’ll add about 83 million people to planet Earth. Isn’t it great, growth everywhere we look?”
The exponential function … is a sumbitch.
Sadly … it does not apply to energy discoveries….
@Gail thanks for the article.
The people left behind by Philippines’ brutal war on drugs
Teenage widow Jasmine Durana dries off her 18-month-old daughter, Hazel, after a morning bath, before preparing a fire to make breakfast. Plastic jerrycans hang on the rafters behind her in the one-room slum dwelling she shares with her parents, two brothers and younger sister.
The single mother, who saved for a month to pay for the containers, hopes they will help her to launch a new business selling drinks in the market or near a local school.
The 16-year-old is trying to move on with her life as best she can after her husband was gunned down in an extrajudicial killing. He was among more than 4,500 people killed in the Philippines in what the authorities claim to be lawful anti-drug operations carried out in the two years since President Rodrigo Duterte came to power.
Human rights groups say the actual number of deaths could be up to three times higher, with police officers routinely executing unarmed suspects and, in many instances, planting drugs or weapons on their victims to justify the killings
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/aug/14/death-drugs-duterte-philippines-poor-bear-brunt-of-narco-crackdown
robert Duterte is pot -pot lite version
That’s almost laughable propaganda of msm article, sorry..
That Duterte bloke is evidently despised by the usual suspect int media and politicos, hence go figure, ha can’t be that bad..
Actually, parallel societies and structures be it various mafias and criminal societies are prone to collaborate with foreign/external forces, so the action to curb them serves many important goals at once: improving national govs vertical power, curbing threat of foreign agents, the eradication of drug abuse, .. freeing the space for other economy to flourish ..
The people there have been forewarned for years not to engage in drugs, and still they had to touch that forbidden hot stone, so no remorse..
Only the street druggies gets shafted. The big boys finds new ways of earning their living from other shady operations.
That Duterte bloke is evidently despised by the usual suspect int media and politicos, hence go figure, ha can’t be that bad.
Hitler/ Mussolini /pol pot /Idi Amin / were also despised by the usual suspect int media and politicos,
but were they bad ?
plus glorious thing he said in recent times
that the high number of rape cases recorded in Davao was due to the ‘many beautiful women’ in his home city.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/08/rodrigo-duterte-slammed-dangerous-distorted-rape-joke-180831085433413.html
Most people I know from the Philippines support Duterte. They see him as a brown Dirty Harry… I can see the appeal when you are living in a country where kidnapping… theft… and drug dealing … are rife…
We’ll support similar as our societies slip further into the quagmire….
Most of my Filipino acquaintances also support Duterte.
Interestingly, the general sentiment among them is that Ferdinand Marcos was a better president and less of a villain than any of the nation’s subsequent leaders. Could be the rosy glow of nostalgia, of course.
Ever spent time in the Peens? I can understand why he has massive support.
The thing is…. he does not address the fundamental problems of the country — which include having to import most of its energy …. and entrenched elites…. so there is no fixing the country….
But … killing drug dealers and other criminals…. definitely sounds as if he is fixing things….
“The thing is…. he does not address the fundamental problems of the country — which include having to import most of its energy …. and entrenched elites…. so there is no fixing the country….
But … killing drug dealers and other criminals…. definitely sounds as if he is fixing things…. In the U.S., we have social justice movements and growing support for more free government services. We’re fixing a lot more.
funny thing with drug dealers… you kill one… another pops up….
https://augustinestenza.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/medusa.jpg
that lady would be Medusa, FE, for $500 and what’s behind door number 3.
“What causes the artificial boom to end and the winter to begin? Ludwig von Mises offered a succinct explanation:
“The boom can last only as long as the credit expansion progresses at an ever-accelerated pace. The boom comes to an end as soon as additional quantities of fiduciary media are no longer thrown upon the loan market.
“…if the artificial boom ends when interest rates are no longer artificially depressed, then it stands to reason that the structure of interest rates will also revert to its natural state… the next U.S. recession may prove unusually severe by historical standards… Approximately one year ago… then Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen believed the next recession-driven financial crisis may be averted for at least a generation or so… You know nothing, Janet Yellen. Winter is coming.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4203054-economy-winter-coming
“As Canada’s yield curve sits on the cusp of inverting for the first time in more than a decade, the nation’s central bank believes there’s little cause for alarm. The world’s largest money manager isn’t so sure. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz says overwhelming demand for long-dated bonds is distorting the curve’s recession signaling mechanism. Yet BlackRock Inc. says banks will become increasingly reluctant to lend as Canada’s term structure turns negative.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-blackrock-sounds-alarm-as-canadian-curve-inversion-approaches/
Of course, there is a problem when the yield curve invest. Banks borrow short and lend long. They need a “spread” to do this.
“They need a “spread” to do this.” – And growth to sustain it. I couldn’t help myself LOL.
Well, right now it is the end of August so I think we need to get through Fall first. It’s a sequential kind of thing.
That is a good comment by Ludwig von Mises, especially “The boom can last only as long as the credit expansion progresses at an ever-accelerated pace.”
Looking more closely at the article, I see that it is from a 1949 publication. Ludvig von Mises was an Australian School Economist.
Ah yes, Hayek’s teacher——
Can you say libertarian?
I knew you could——-
In similar vein, Mises also said:
‘There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.’
A very small world—
But, ideas do need to be expressed.
Rapid growth in very cheap energy supply might work, but that doesn’t seem to be available.
Your right Gail. I too feel that rapid growth in very cheap energy is the only thing that will extend and pretend this game a little longer. I say a “little” longer purposefully. Exponential growth means we need increasingly massive amounts of energy each year to sustain the unsustainable.
We’re in a position where it does not matter… if we abandoned the expansion in 2010… or now …
We get total catastrophe….
Therefore best to continue with whatever it takes… and wait for catastrophe….
https://i.gifer.com/DXNd.gif
You meant Austrian school right?
You mean the plentiful schools of blind economics?
I opened up my eyes and looked into the uncaring void of finite resources and the dim red glow of entropy dimly illuminating the pitch black nothingness of reality.
https://astrobites.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/eso1122a.jpg
Of course. You need to somehow guess what I meant, not what I wrote. I have never heard on an Australian School of Economics, unless Steve Keen started one.
Austrian you mean, we Aussies don’t think that deep.
Sorry! There is a disconnect sometimes between what I mean and what I write.
Winter… followed by the season to end all seasons … Apocalypse….
EU offered Trump a free trade deal. Trump turned the offer down. Trump doesn’t want free trade. Trump wants a trade war. Trump wants tariffs. “Tariffs are the best!” -Trump
U.S puts 10% tariffs on Chinese goods. China devalues the yuan by 10%. Chinese producers receive 10% less for their goods in dollars. U.S consumers pay the same price for Chinese goods. The U.S treasury takes a 10% share. It is just a wealth transfer from Chinese producers to the U.S treasury
Agreed. He is a bull in a china shop, failing to understand that national economies are now just localised expressions of a globalised whole, as David Korowicz puts it. By aggressively pushing for American advantage in this fashion he risks accelerating the fall of the totality into severe crisis, America included.
Whatever.
He’s just the cutting edge of radical, new economic theory.It could turn out to be great for America.
On this date:
1958 — Cuba: Fidel Castro, Che Guevara & their rag-tag rebel army begin their destruction of the US-supported & Mafia/corporate-controlled dictatorship.
“He’s just the cutting edge of radical, new economic theory.It could turn out to be great for America.” – and if it doesn’t work out there is always plan B … impeach.
As if Trumpo has anything to do with it. The doctrine has been crafted by computation.
https://www.google.se/amp/s/www.wired.com/story/the-us-again-has-worlds-most-powerful-supercomputer/amp
https://media-wired-com.cdn.ampproject.org/i/s/media.wired.com/photos/5b19a4f2e330f44f585225ae/master/w_2400,h_1800,c_limit/Summit-supercomputer—long-shot-Inline2.jpg
What does a supercomputer have to do with anything? Automation isn’t going to do much for a while, other than further usher a return to the ‘Arbeit macht frei’ days
Do you think a doctrine is put into action without not first simulating the likely outcome in a supercomputer?
It’s all about gut feel for you and the rest of the indulgent eaters.
“Do you think a doctrine is put into action without not first simulating the likely outcome in a supercomputer?”
Do you? I don’t have a security clearance, so I don’t know how they parse their economic warfare intelligence. If Trump’s policies end up in disaster for the us of america, I guess we’ll know for sure. Granted, the Eurozone, Russia and Asia have supercomputers also.
What I think does not matter. I speak of what is.
To refrain from using information processing machines to gain an advantage when determining and choosing an economic set of policies is a ludicrous proposition at best, if not outright idiotic.
Funny how the articles, as the one I linked, never speak of using the supercompute for economic modeling and policy making. Oh, really, of course not. 😉
It all has to be read between the lines ofrom the MSM smoke and mirrors, algorithic generated textual churn.
Gail, could you approve my comment above?
Aaaa, but we can run a more robust Limits To Growth model to better pin down the date of societal collapse.
Sounds about right.
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/833/619/966.gif
LtG only predicted peak output per capita and death rate minimum, not collapse of civilisation.
Smite doesnt deny per capita everything will peak.
The authors of the model, especially after the book was published, were clear that they really could not predict what happens after limits hit. Their model does not have enough pieces to it. They have not looked at what happened in the past. Dennis Meadows (lead person on study) and his wife Donella Meadows (primary author of LtG) were just out of graduate school. Talking to Dennis Meadows, they were at that time convinced that people would read the book and change their ways (drop population growth to 0% immediately worldwide, adopt nuclear instead of fossil fuels, and adopt more efficiency), and thus put off LtG for a very long time.
The model was limited in scope. It does’t include a financial system, or debt. It doesn’t separate out energy resources from other energy resources.
There are others who have tried to fix the model since, but they mostly assumed that the economy could somehow get along on less and less energy. There is no evidence that this is really the case.
Or perhaps the US leadership can see that the ship is about to sink…. and they are gathering on the highest deck… with the fine champagne and caviar… and shoving everyone else below deck or over the side…
The US Treasury definitely needs more revenue. Today’s news is that Trump wants a pay freeze for Government employees. Given a choice between (a) taxing your own people, and (b) taxing people you compete with, I can see the point in taxing the latter.
“The world-beating slump on Chinese equity markets may have more room to run, if the number of companies with stock prices below either their 200-day moving averages or book values is anything to go by. Of the 1,478 stocks on the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, 93.3 per cent have fallen below their average prices for the past 200 days, according to Bloomberg data… At the same time, the number of stocks with prices below book values indicates that there is more gloom to come.”
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/2162010/shanghais-reign-worlds-worst-performing-stock-market-may
“China’s private equity industry is cooling, with fundraising on course for one of its worst years since the global financial crisis and returns under pressure, hurt by tighter domestic liquidity following Beijing’s war on debt and Sino-U.S. trade tensions.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-china-private-equity/winter-ahead-china-private-equity-industry-faces-turbulence-after-debt-clampdown-idUKKCN1LF0RU
“South Korea’s central bank on Friday left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the ninth consecutive month amid the worsening of recent economic indicators. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol and six other policy board members decided to freeze the policy rate at 1.50 percent. The BOK refrained from altering the rate since it raised its target rate to the current level from an all-time low of 1.25 percent in November last year.”
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-08/31/c_137433257.htm
“Japan’s factory output fell for a third straight month in July due to slowing exports of cars and steel and flooding that disrupted production, compounded by global trade tensions that cloud the export-reliant economy’s outlook… Factory output has levelled off in recent months due in part to a slowdown in exports. Natural disasters, including early July’s heavy rains and flooding in western Japan, temporarily halted production at some companies such as carmakers.”
http://www.euronews.com/2018/08/31/growth-worries-rise-as-japans-july-factory-output-falls
No mention of how people are broke… and up to their ears in debt… so having trouble buying more stuff
Interesting how it appears that every country except the US (which I am told is booming) … is rapidly circling down the toilet….
It is instructive to look at per capita GDP in current dollars from the World Bank. (Only available through 2017.) The US is doing reasonably well. A whole lot of other countries are not.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
Imported goods are especially affected by falling GDP on this basis. These are averages for 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017
World: 10,883; 10,172, 10,201; 10,714
USA: 54,697; 56,444; 57,589; 59,532
Ukraine: 3,105; 2,125; 2,186; 2,640
Russia: 14,126; 9,347; 8,759; 10,743
Norway: 97,200; 74,498; 70,890; 75,505
European Union: 36,670; 32,207; 32,260; 33,715
US-
The goal is no doubt … to be the last man standing…. that makes sense
But we know these numbers are kind of not revealing much about reality, right?
For example the EU’s stats should be boosted up (or the US ones derated) by better public transport, food quality and often health/social care available in comparison to the US situation..
One question in my mind is how long will the “better public transport, food quality and often health/social care” really be available in Europe? Clearly Greece cannot afford its programs. Italy is having a lot of problems, as is the UK. None of the EU is really doing very well, except possibly the Eastern part, using coal and nuclear as fuels.
Several (most?) of the EU countries have had to cut back on wind/solar subsidies. They will have to cut back on other give-aways as well, unless they can find a reasonable source of cheap fuel.
Ouch!
Harry M., your posts remind me of an old Anne Murray classic country song: “A Little Good New Today”.
My good news for today:
Things aren’t nearly as bad as they’re going to be. 😀
(sarc on) What’s that Harry? You know things only get better and better! Haven’t you heard, unicorn flatulence is the new bio-fuel of the future? You know Moore’s law and all that stuff. Machines will take over and coddle us in a cocoon of serenity and peace. (sarc off)
“An increasingly likely disorderly exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union could lead to a new financial crisis in Europe, German finance minister Olaf Scholz warned on Thursday. Speaking during the ongoing “Handelsblatt” banking conference in Frankfurt, Scholz cautioned that it was still “difficult to say whether (a post-Brexit agreement) can be reached” before London crashes out of the bloc on March 29 2019. As a consequence, the minister recommended to business leaders to make the necessary preparations for a “disorderly Brexit” until it was too late.”
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-08/30/c_137431457.htm
“Foreigners’ net holdings of British government debt fell by a record amount last month, a move partly driven by a large volume of maturing bonds but one which also revived concerns about the effect of Brexit on investor appetite… Bank of England data released on Thursday showed a net 17.153 billion pound drop in foreigners’ holdings in July, the largest since records began in 1982…”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-bonds/uk-sees-record-drop-in-foreigners-holdings-of-government-debt-idUKKCN1LF1GK
“Consumer borrowing growth slowed sharply in July as Britons tightened their belts and lenders became more cautious. The annual pace of credit growth dropped to 8.5 per cent, the lowest level since November 2015, according to Bank of England data published on Thursday… The Bank of England would likely welcome the slowdown in consumer credit growth as it was concerned about “pockets of risk” but would not want to see unsecured lending dry up.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e1795768-ac30-11e8-89a1-e5de165fa619
“The UK housing market has slowed to its weakest in five years as fewer mortgages have been given to buyers so far this year than at any point since 2013, when banks and the market were still recovering from the financial crisis.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/08/30/slowest-year-home-sales-since-2013-market-grinds-halt/
“The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China could lead to a “global economic crisis,” according to George Yeo, a former Singapore foreign and trade minister. “It’s not good for us in the near term if it leads to a global economic crisis, which may well happen,” Yeo said. “I mean we’ve just had Trump threatening to leave the WTO if it doesn’t change in the U.S. favor,” he added. “So all this is causing a lot of anxiety all around.””
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/31/trade-war-could-spark-global-economic-crisis-former-trade-minister.html
“Summer holidays are almost over, but trade wars are just heating up. This doesn’t mean anything good for global exports, according to research by Bloomberg Economics. Examining the weighted average of growth in cargo volume at nine of the world’s busiest ports suggests a marked slowdown.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-31/cargo-volumes-at-big-ports-point-to-marked-trade-slowdown-chart
“Copper is now ~18% below its four-year high reached in June, hurt by worries that a trade fight between the U.S. and China will weaken the Chinese economy and reduce consumption of metals used in construction and manufacturing; China accounts for about half the world’s demand for copper and other industrial materials.”
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3387042-copper-edges-lower-u-s-china-trade-fight-worries
The cheese production in Slovakia: the hardest works, that just yesterday required muscle men, are now made by robots that offset the declining availability of the suitable workforce:
https://static.etrend.sk/uploads/tx_media/2018/08/23/gallery_1000_666/robot-v-syrarni-vykryl-najtazsie-prace-pri-miesani-a-krajani-zakladnej-suroviny.jpg
Source: https://www.etrend.sk/trend-archiv/rok-2018/cislo-33/najsilnejsi-domaci-syrar-bude-este-vacsi.html
If I’m not mistaken family sized dairy operation in Europe outputs ~50k liters of milk per year with dozen+ cows. Most of the farmers don’t have the time, money for equip, market access to value add and additionally produce own cheese..
So, family scale dairy farm revenue is bordering on “relative poverty”, even though both adults can take up part time (seasonal) jobs, and there are some additional per land gov subsidies. Lets call it sub EUR ~45k yearly income per family of two adults and 2-3kids..
There is a cheese producer also in the vicinity of ma village: firstly they produced from the milk coming from their own farm, now they just buy milk from other farmers. Moreover, they had to and have to hire workforce form Romania or Serbia.
Well irrelevant is too strong of a word.. depends what you are after.
As MG posted above the example of vertically aggregated bigger manufs., i.e. large stalls and lot of animals, modern robotic facilities, distribution etc.. the decent quality of the product still can’t be compared to hand made low volume production (at higher price and local distribution).
Simply, commoditization of production can at best bring ~mid average quality for price somewhat undershooting small scale oriented producer.. but usually it’s way worse as volume production increases (there are way bigger conglomerates than in MG’s example) and so-so to bad quality to junk is the result..
Meant chiefly as response to Redshift.. oops..
Automation is about improving all stages of production. Productivity, quality, reliability and resource conservation while maintaining the technological edge toward the rest of the aspiring nations and cliques with capital.
Commoditazion is a byproduct of this and it works as long as there is surplus energy.
Which is starting to crack up. Yes, we all are on the receiving end of that process.
Irrelevance awaits within a 10 year period.
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0535/6917/products/ProgressFix.jpg
Gail, could you approve this comment. Sometimes your IP block is a bit overzealous.
“Automation is about improving all stages of production” – I disagree. Automation is about burning through finite resource to make more money.
Well, they can both coexist. Burning and producing high quality stuff without human intervention.
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/868/263/d7e.png
A lot of automation and outsourcing is only profitable because the useless eaters are paid so much in EU/US.
There are other issues as well. China and India have tended to ignore pollution issues. Trying to work around pollution is a big cost that can be avoided by outsourcing to one of these countries.
Healthcare in China and India are quite limited. Workers Compensation, to provide healthcare and compensation for wage loss do not exist. There is very little in the way of unemployment insurance. The safety nets that we in developed countries have gotten used to are mostly missing.
“Automation is about improving all stages of production. Productivity, quality, reliability and resource conservation…” not so….what you have posted is atypical very Ivory tower textbook statement….probably coined by a professor or technologist to justify automation carte Blanche. Quality and reliability are a function of design. That is still largely a function of engineering and supplier quality. A robot will increase repetitiveness and product assembly uniformity but not overall quality and reliability.
Well of course, a cowboy like you, could use a robot to shove manure around. It won’t change the fact that you are using it for processing feces.
Garbage in, garbage out. That goes without saying.
But a competently deployed robotic operation will beat a human any day.
Oh, who could have guessed automation making the human workforce increasingly irrelevant.
Coal power, silicon, copper, aluminum, rare earth materials and a dab of software to crown the cheese cake.
“Oh, who could have guessed automation making the human workforce increasingly irrelevant.” – We don’t need automation to make the human workforce irrelevant – a lack of access to critical resources will do that just as well. Oh darn, a lack of access to critical resources will also end automation who could have guessed!
You will be long gone before any resource limits hit the clique that control the machinery.
Understand that you and the consumerism is irrelevant to the clique in control.
It’s just a fun little hobby for them to watch your trials and tribulations in life, of which they control every detail of the minutia.
And yes, they even made you join the insta crowd. Isn’t that cute.
https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/bloodbrothersgame/images/f/fd/Double_Facepalm_Meme.jpg
Wherefor these meagre attempts at edgy nihilism on a blog that’s already chock full of it? Sad!
You mistake comedy for nihilism.
Now lean back, breathe, meditate, think and then come back and let’s have a go at it again.
😊
I think Jup was just being nasty to you for the sake of it, to be honest. I’ve noticed he has a habit of making passive aggressive sly digs at other commentators in the guise of justified irritation at a perceived failure of others to meet standards he likes to impose on others either politically, ethically, aesthetically, academically, or in a dozen other ways. Then, if he’s called on it, he waxes active aggressive.
You handled it very well, Red.
Understand that you and the consumerism is irrelevant to the clique in control.
This is an important point. Whether clique, cabal, bureaucracy or band of Jedi knights, the controllers are not the least bit concerned about how well the average little person is doing or whether or not they can afford to be good little consumers. For one thing, they have much much bigger fish to fry. Consumerism will be promoted if it is considered useful, essential, profitable and doable, and it will be abandoned if it becomes impractical or counterproductive for the controllers. I don’t consider this observation the least bit edgy or nihilistic. It’s the kind of thing Prof. Kissinger used to teach at Harvard in his Realpolitik 101 class, right after “Foreign policy is not missionary work.”
“I’ve noticed he has a habit of making passive aggressive sly digs at other commentators in the guise of justified irritation at a perceived failure of others to meet standards he likes to impose on others either politically, ethically, aesthetically, academically, or in a dozen other ways. Then, if he’s called on it, he waxes active aggressive.”
I admit taking a certain satisfaction in watching people get a taste of their own medicine.
Fast Eddy must disappoint you
Tim, it’s my pleasure to be an irritant in this herd.
Like that annoying malaria infested mosquito buzzing around, biting and infesting, slowly breaking down the resilience of the dogma perpetrators immune defense systems.
but there is one problem with this
the robots do not consume products that they make
so humans are still need to consume
which your gov will get through either from native people
or immigrants
Oh lord, we have been here again and again. Yes, machines require spare parts and regular replacement and servicing.
It is exactly the same as humans, with the exception of producing less waste for the owning capital. And of course consuming less resources and energy for the same output.
The end result of this process will be designated not for you and me, but for the successful in the society.
https://youtu.be/rcx-nf3kH_M
A machine consuming less than human labour is irrelevant when the latter’s consumption is precisely the reason why the former’s decreased consumption is profitable. Snake, tail, etc.
Of course, it’s not so paradoxical if you simply recognise the fact that those are two different kinds of consumption, and with different supporting infrastructures.
Yes, we, the plebs consume the surplus.
But one the hammer hits the anvil, that surplus will be gone.
And the hammer is accelerating towards the immovable iron mass with you and I in between.
I am glad that you agree with me.
The machines will build more for less. It all ends up in the hands of the capital and not for you and I.
It is like a turbine engine, 30% of the energy gets used for compressing the air and the rest will be propulsion in the energy, entropy economic system.
Because that is what you are saying, right?
The ‘less’ becomes ‘more’ (for whomever) precisely because it is supported by a system of ‘more’. The prime fallacy in these autistic techno-dystopias is that increased efficiency cannot scale down the infrastructure supporting it. Amazingly, that is also the prime fallacy of techno-disney.
The system of more is built upon autustic traits. The system of consumption is built upon nihilistic traits.
The means of automated production does not care about the rate in which it produces.
The capital cares exclusively on the capability and spoils of the system. To stay ahead of the curve in their little clique.
Now the game is about new money vs old. Technocracy vs indulgence and nihilism.
There is no turning back to the old when the technocracy together with their semiconductor compute and algorithms control all information and processing capabilities.
Redshift – technology does not create energy, it consumes energy. Technology is only as great as the surpluses of energy available for it to use. The machines will not produce a techno-utopia for their creators. Eliminating the “useless eaters” will do nothing to extend the illusion that technology has created. As access to energy declines … so too will technology. The debate here is mainly how fast will the decline be…fast or slow.
The decline has been around since the US went off the gold standard and instituted the petrodollar.
The rich get relatively richer as the surplus are burned and consumed in the industrialized world.
Fortunately for the capital, there are virtually infinite resources left. It’s about managing the transition of the still useful plebs. And triaging the rest by a firm control of technology and energy resources. But for the sake of simplicity let’s call that techno, entropy, economy “credit” which is issued from the worlds only remaining superpower.
Greg:
technology does not create energy, it consumes energy.
Technology doesn’t have to create energy. It can be employed to harness energy that otherwise wouldn’t be utilizable. That’s another important piece of the puzzle.
The original harness and the horse plow allows the motive power of a horse to be harnessed for plowing. The mechanical windmill and watermill permit access to the kinetic energy in wind or running or falling water to drive mechanical processes. And so on.
They way I look at it—horribly oversimplified I know—is that as long as technology can go on allowing us to harness more more and dispatchable and/or storable energy at everyday low prices, we can stay in the BAU game. Once it can no longer do that, it’s game over.
I am coming to the realization that machines need a high EROEI environment to work. In other words, they need cheap energy.
No one is disputing the fact that machines need energy, unless it is a machine that produces energy from natural phenomena. Such as hydro power generators and turbines.
Interesting!
Rupiah Falls to 1998 Asian Crisis Low as Emerging Market Pain Spreads
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-31/rupiah-falls-to-asian-crisis-low-as-emerging-market-pain-spreads?srnd=premium-asia
‘Reuters reported that the country’s central bank was “decisively intervening” in both the bond and foreign exchange markets.’
I am feeling… that this is a very big problem…. without a solution?
I had to look–currency of Indonesia.
Another example of energy constraints and complexity merging to produce diminishing returns.
https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/IdeaPF.pdf
Output of vehicles for the UK market plunged by 47% in June
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/30/car-manufacturing-in-britain-fell-by-11-in-july-reports-smmt
Ouch!
Enjoy the doomsday cult guys and gals… I’m due back on planet earth. 🙂
But that’s fiction, that’s movies. You see too many movies. I’m talking about reality. I mean, if you want a happy ending, you should see a Hollywood movie.
https://youtu.be/R5UP44x8nxw
Here is a more appropriate movie clip:
Vix
13.53
+1.28(+10.45%)
And things are pretty Red in Asia.
Things could be interesting tomorrow.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-stock-market-may-extend-losing-streak-1027498783
‘China Stock Market May Extend Losing Streak’
“The global forecast for the Asian markets is negative thanks to renewed trade concerns. The European and U.S. markets were down and the Asian markets figure to follow suit.
The Dow shed 137.65 points, the NASDAQ lost 21.32 points and the S&P 500 fell 12.91.
The lower close followed reports that President Donald Trump intends to move ahead with plans to impose TARIFFS ON $200 BILLION in Chinese imports as early as next week.”
Trump said a few days ago that if he gets impeached the American people will be poor. Word of late is the evidence is beginning to be overwhelming in regards to charges for impeachment (after the Nov. elections) based on obstruction of justice. I wonder if Trump plans to make good on his decision to make us all poor by taking the tariffs to this much higher level and dumping the world economy? It’s starting to look very likely unless something happens to change the tariff situation between the US & China.
Remember all that has to happen is for the world economy to slow down enough to nix growth and initiate contraction/recession. That’s about 3-4%. What are the chances that tariffs of on an additional $200 billion’s worth of products out of China won’t slow down the world economy by 3-4%?
I overheard a couple in Safeway saying; “You know how much more that equipment would be if we got it because of the tariffs?” “How much?” “$400 dollars”. “Oh my!”
These did not look like people that could afford an extra 400.
I hear you but the “tariff war” is more about ~small concessions not the overall boasted giga numbers, e.g. look at the recent NAFTA deals. Similarly, the goal is likely to push and kick ankles of China somewhat, not to upset the whole cart and JITs..
It’s most likely can kicking (enjoy the spoils from reserve currency status while supporting few selected domestic sectors) and as well obfuscation performance (domestic politics game).
The tariff “war” just means that the production will be back in US controlled territories.
And those Asian sweatshops will be replaced with automated factories financed by cheap loans.
It is dangerous for the elite with a too large uneducated workforce. Not only the resource waste is a problem, but also the fickleness of the human character. And it is definitely madness to be dependent on mainland China for production and assembly of critical machines and subsystems.
Then it is better to institute UBI in the West and give freebies to the unproductive plebs. Then as the energy situation worsens the freebies will lessen and finally taken away altogether.
As Elon just amply demonstrated the robots/AI can’t and won’t replace sweatshop labor for a long time! Hence, Chinese secured place as the factory of the world remains largely intact, and only threatened by other eventual front coming factors (O/FWs, fuel depletion, demography – deflation slump, prosperity stagnation – dive, credit/money reset..)
I am not talking about fringe work that require dexterous fingers, such as assembling iPhones. I mean the large bulk production of example raw materials and processing them into high grade.
Any modern mining and refining operation tells the story really. Look at a refinery and a processing plant next to a mine. Basically no one is around when it produces at its optimum.
People on the floor usually indicates there is a problem.
Which of course too can be automated to a large extent. At the price of large capital expenditure and cheap money. Plenty of that around, luckily.
Tesla is an example of a software guy trying to automate real physical systems. The laws of Newton isn’t as easily manipulated as registers in a microprocessor.
Therein is the flaw of trying to adopt a paradigm which is successful in one domain which simply does not work in another.
* I am not ONLY talking about.
I meant.
We have a lot of specialists who think that they know more than they really do.
Indeed, taking a good long walk inside any modern operation puts things into perspective.
Realizing that: WTF, nobody is actaully “working” anymore. It’s all about keeping the machine well fed and churning relentlessly with minimal human intervention.
And of course zealous knowledge of the physical process behind the production prowess.
So Gail, when will you take a walk inside a modern semiconductor mfg plant in the US? How about a modern mining operation closer to “home” in Norway?
“Indeed, taking a good long walk inside any modern operation puts things into perspective.” – It sure does, modern operations burn through a lot of energy and finite resources.
I am coming to the realization that automation in the form of using robots for labor is only possible in a productive, growing economy with access to cheap energy. If we are past the point of (a real) growing economy and cheap energy then, are we not also past the point of robot labor being beneficial? As things necessarily become less complex, are we not going to be increasingly dependent on cheap manual human labor?
I read in the recent EIA/Berkeley National Labs Wind report I read yesterday that the US is dependent on imports to make various parts for wind turbines. I am sure that China is part of this chain. Probably many others. https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2017_wind_technologies_market_report.pdf
Heading:
“Domestic manufacturing content is strong for some wind turbine components, but the U.S. wind industry remains reliant on imports”
Good points!
Just when you think Argentina’s financial crisis can’t get worse, it gets a whole lot worse. In order to halt the peso from collapsing further, the IMF, after some serious begging from the government, had agreed to a $50-billion bailout package in June, to be disbursed in increments. In addition, the central bank raised its policy rate in big jumps, reaching 45% on August 13. And in an emergency meeting today, it goosed the rate to a blistering 60%!!
And this is what followed: Yesterday the peso plunged 7%; and today as of midday in Buenos Aires, it has plunged over 17%. That brings the total plunge for the two days to 24%. It now takes 41.3 pesos to buy a dollar. Seen the other way around, a peso is now worth 2.4 cents (down from $1 in early 2002):
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/30/argentina-peso-collapses-20-in-2-days-as-government-asks-for-faster-imf-bailout/
This is the sort of thing that I envision ending BAU…. a key country runs into the same problems… and no matter what the IMF or CBs do…. the problem only worsens
I agree FE. You know considering Venezuela doing so poorly, where are all these people go to go to escape their collapsing governments? Argentina and Brazil are both heading down the same path toward collapse. Where do all these people go to escape? Mexico isn’t far behind either. I can tell you these people are going to want to move northward.
As predicted EM currencies and eventually (semi-) core country currencies will be decimated. Now, he who can predict the sequencing on the latter one should voice his opinion here. The sterling is obviously a candidate for next 6-12months of increased volatility, however for mid-term future one would like to know rather about the interplay of more systemic usd-eur-yuan-ruble..
The basic theory is that usd as preferred vehicle of the entire global upper caste across every society will out last any other as the perceived last harbor. That leaves us with eur-yuan-ruble “competition”, hence the question what disintegrates first of the two deeper pools the eur or yuan?
We have to speak politics a bit, since many “nationalistic” parties are trying to upset the balance inside EU Parliament which can push some levers on nominations to Commission and other EU institutions. At the minimum it would be another drag on the system. While the Chinese can operate a bit more aggressively in terms of policy changes.
So, the money/credit gushes out of EM and it stands on the crossroads where to hide next and regroup for another wave of intervention!:
– increasingly disunited EU
– increasingly volatile and still not fully open China (for outsiders pools of money)
– increasingly dysfunctional US
– increasingly deflationary commodities
– increasingly unstable tax heavens of preference under the protection of the US/EU
In summary, this seems a road way to real fracture of the global system, yet there is enough momentum to keep some of the achieved functionality for a while. So, should we expect a program of mega austerity and barter for the brief intermezzo before the lights go out for good?
I guess the best tell would be the next GFC v2.0 if the global CBs are not going to be able to synchronize together as efficiently as the last time, we could have nice confirmation of the exact spot we reached on the collapse trajectory. As you know I don’t much believe in the “GFCII holiness” as there might be wave a roller coaster ride of several GFCs events for say period of next ~15yrs.
“So, should we expect a program of mega austerity and barter for the brief intermezzo before the lights go out for good?”
Except that the lights don’t have to go out. But the following issues are what I see as ensuring that they will:
THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM
The mere physics of energy extraction or use does not seem strictly correlated to our financial system. Our financial system seems like a large elephant in a delicate place, playing by its own unrelated and inhibiting rules that prohibit rationality and common sense.
Ghetto Economics
This appears to be the template for a global civilization with lights. At least one solar panel to light up a single bulb in each tenement. But doubtless the world could do better than that, using coal as leverage.
Coal used as leverage for other kinds of acceptable energy
Not all kinds of growth or energy means are acceptable, even if their avoidance causes human extinction. But it’s more than likely that it isn’t the avoidance of growth by any means that threatens us as much as it is the financial system that is detached from and prohibiting of sensible human systems.
I’m not suggesting that the world can do without a financial system; it’s just that I can’t see why an adjustment to this very dumb one wouldn’t be desirable.
I think that the current financial system is pretty much required, to keep the whole system operating. It seems possible that even derivatives are needed.
The ultimate problem is diminishing returns. Also, the fact that promises of various types are needed to pull the economy forward.
It’s going to take me another two years to understand that. I’ve gotten as far as supporting coal on other groups. Loud complaints. I tell them to read FW for themselves, but no takers. Maybe I have to stick to nations that are of little value to the global growth system. If they are peripheral anyway, why not suggest that they at least try to survive in some way on nothing?
“I think that the current financial system is pretty much required, to keep the whole system operating. It seems possible that even derivatives are needed.
The ultimate problem is diminishing returns. Also, the fact that promises of various types are needed to pull the economy forward.”
What is a derivative?
The term derivative is often defined as something — a security, a contract — that derives its value from its relationship with another asset or stream of cash flows. There are many types of derivatives and they can be good or bad, used for productive things or as speculative tools. Derivatives can help stabilize the economy or bring the economic system to its knees in a catastrophic implosion due to an inability to identify the real risks, properly protect against them, and anticipate so-called “daisy-chain” events where interconnected corporations, institutions, and organizations find themselves instantaneously bankrupted as a result of a poorly written or structured derivative position with another firm that failed; a domino effect.
https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-derivative-and-how-do-derivatives-work-358098
My big problem is a inability to see how pulling the economy forward by any and all means is consistent with even medium term survival.
Take the making of new cars. So many resources go into making a new car that you would have to distribute them among a thousand people to align them with a decent human budget. And in the same way that FW has been able to show that coal is more economic and survivable than solar, someone needs to show that the absolutely worst thing for human survival is real estate development that I’m sure is also required to pull the economy along.
As we’ve heard, species come and species go. Ours seems to be going., and my way of dealing with it is to see through fallacies. A human isn’t simply a fleshy animal form, but an entity who should behave according to a code of conduct. Proceeding without that code is to be an abomination that it would be merciful to extinguish. I, I’m sure among others, have great difficulty seeing the sense of pulling the economy forward to benefit an abomination. It should be, do the right thing–live or die–or screw you.
Employers in the US have been increasingly treating employees badly. One effect was downsizing office spaces, and making cubicle spaces smaller, while conference facilities swelled and became more luxurious.
Another was elimination of retirement benefits for all, and substituting fancy packages for those in charge (depending on stock price), and putting in place self-funded plans for others, perhaps with a little employee matching.
A third was going to a whole lot more contract work. Also, outsourcing both manufacturing and a fair amount of services to Asia. Programming has been going over seas. So have call centers of various kinds.
The code of conduct toward employees has gone badly downward already. It is especially frustrating for young people, who have no choice but put up with the current state of affairs.
Thanks, Gail. I might not be able to do much, but every little chance i get I oppose, resist, undercut and defy such bad behavior. The same principle applies with my two free annual art show opportunities in the neighboring village. The park district which owns one of the sites has some legal issue that mandate the utterly inconvenient need to go out on the road to complete a sale. For some reason, the organizers are talking talking about charging an artist fees to clear up the mess somehow. But owing to my extreme good fortune of being able to manage on my pittance of SS, I simply say to them: charge a fee and I won’t participate. I do good work but charge next to nothing for it (so I don’t feel pressured to be perfect) and my reputation is growing, I think. So if they want to lose the only highly trained artist because they can’t figure out a way not to charge money, so be it. My spouse seems to be leaning toward allowing me to use her carport as a studio for exhibition. probably better economic outcome.
The original premise of this blog is correct. We do live on a finite world. There are finite stores and/or finite flows of resources available to us. The bio-services of the biosphere also have only finite capacities to deal with our wastes.
However, the sciences (both production sciences and impact sciences) in these arenas are highly complex just as the systems involved are highly complex. Any claim to absolute knowledge of future outcomes is spurious even at this late point. For example, statements that renewable energy sources cannot deliver a useful EROEI for civilizational purposes are based on science which is now 20 years out of date. Solar PV cell design at the top end has already achieved 46% conversion of incoming solar energy to electrical power. Scientists are predicting they can reach 50% efficiency. Soon enough, it is likely we will see 50% conversion efficiency as the standard in practical applications.
When the facts of technology change with scientific progress, people should update their knowledge and change their minds about possibilities. They should factor in the implications of these improvements. When we add in the fact that an electrical economy is about four times more efficient than a fossil fuel economy at converting energy to useful work then we clearly arrive at a point where a surprisingly low EROEI (of the order of about 10:1 down to 5:1) will be sufficient to run a complex society, albeit it will still look considerably different from today’s very wasteful society.
Of course, this one advance is not guaranteed to save us. It does improve our chances, although it is not possible to quantify by how much. Many other scientific and technical advances will be necessary also. In addition, we need advances in political economy, that is in how we organize our economy. Over-reliance on neoliberal “free” markets (which are really corrupt markets heavily rigged in favor of corporations, rich people, financialization and environmental destruction) will not facilitate the changes we need.
Many of the economic system limitations which Gail writes about are really just the limitations of neoliberal capitalism and not real limitations as such within the full range of political economy possibilities. Real limitations of course do exist in the sphere of real resources and real biosphere bio-services. On the other hand, socio-economic limitations are not nearly so clear among all the possibilities of organizing a political (or national) economy.
Science is showing that with technological progress there is still room for maneuver within real limitations. Political-economic change can also give us more chances to meet the challenges The room for maneuver and chances are admittedly not great. But they are better than zero. The situation is very dire as we have delayed action too long. Being negative and adopting a doomsday cult mentality will not help anyone. In fact, all it does is delay action and lock us into BAU which is leading to certain collapse.
50% effiency of something small is even smaller. Plus, it is intractable to manufacture PV without fossil fuels. Jank technology for feeble people.
Another issue is that eventually night arrives. Then what? Burn more coal? Wind you might suggest, then how about a windless night?
In order to cover for the energy needs mankind actually needs the complications from several different intermittent sources and on top of that burn more coal.
It is madness to pursue renewables with the possible exception of hydro power and wind turbines in the absolute vicinity of the dams. Perhaps geothermal where that is possible could be tractable too.
So cut out the hopium would ya?
https://www.sott.net/image/s12/241844/full/hopium.png
Hmm- you might want to get a bit more insightful.
Your handlers have you just where they want you.
Oh, did I hurtz your sensitivz feelz with that picturez. 🙁
Poor little fella’
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shockley–Queisser_limit
Someone needs to update wikipedia.
A big part of the problem with EROEI calculations is that do not look at a broad enough range of “Energy” inputs. They also do not consider the quality of the outputs.
You will remember that in my post I said:
The whole EROEI calculation approach makes no sense for renewables. There are way too many things left out. Energy used to make energy is only one of a long list, and my list isn’t complete.
There are other issues as well. The whole EROEI idea seems to suggest that “some” inefficiency is OK. (Say, substituting a renewable with an EREOI of 10:1 for a fossil fuel with an EROEI of 20:1.) This is fundamentally not true. Toleration of inefficiency only makes sense if you can assert that prices will rise to cover the cost of inefficiency, and this is not the case, as I have demonstrated in this post.
Wind and solar can economically substitute for oil to reduce the use of oil in electricity generation, or to operate a ship, or to desalinate water. But this type of usage is relatively rare. It is not an economic substitute for natural gas or coal in electricity generation. This is a recent report from the US Department of Energy written by authors from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, saying that the big subsidies need to remain, in order for wind generation to be economic for those producing it. If wind doesn’t work, how do you possibly expect solar to work?
Wind and solar are energy sinks, when all costs are included. That is why they need continuing subsidies. What kind of a system can operate with energy sinks?
Euan Mearn’s piece on solar power in Scotland is hilarious reading. Ah, sunny Aberdeen, situated on the delightful Riviera of the Highlands….. (I hope this won’t provoke a fatwah from the McGibbs clan).
In much of Britain it’s actually a cause for celebration if you can even guess, approximately the location of the sun for about 7 months of the year.
And don’t all the wave turbines to ‘harness the free power of the sea’ get bashed to pieces faster than anyone imagined?
It’s all ‘Project Stardust ‘- stardust and unicorns, to beguile the masses and make a quick buck here and now.
In this instance we are inclined to be merciful, Xabier. 😀
The hilarious article you refer to can be found here.
http://euanmearns.com/solar-pv-potential-in-scotland/
https://s15.postimg.cc/hof5hkhff/Untitled.png
Figure 2: Solar PV generation vs. demand, monthly data.
It is the seasonal intermittency that is the huge problem. On the equator, in the desert, if solar panels could be kept clean, they might work better/less badly.
I agree Gail. Wind and solar PV are energy sinks. I used to think (back in 2005) that solar PV and wind would be useful. However, the more I read over the years, I too have come to the conclusion that they become energy sinks if one tries to replace fossil fuels with them.
First, a common misconception is wind and solar PV produce energy, they do not. They capture energy. The amount they capture is small relative to the amount of energy needed for their construction and for the maintenance of the high tech industry required to build and maintain them.
Fossil fuels are different, they can be burned directly to release energy in the form of heat. The only realistic use of solar and wind is direct applications as well such as in sailing ships, clothes lines and growing plants.
Then there is the whole petro-chemical aspect to fossil fuels that solar PV and wind would be incapable of duplicating.
We are told that solar panels produce a slight nett amount of energy (when battery storage is not involved) …. I seriously doubt that …
Even if there were significant improvements in solar and battery technology, you still have a serious problem – it would take a massive amount of fossil fuel energy to replace all of the fossil fuel powered machines and infrastructure currently in existence. Which you would need to do in a hurry before fossil fuel is either too scarce or too expensive (which might already be the case) resulting in a massive increase in air pollution and environmental damage.
What I find interesting is that you have a religious belief in technological progress. You have no proof of any technology that will save us from our predicament, yet you insist that one must be just over the horizon just because you want it to be true.
What we need to do is to power down in an orderly fashion across the entire world. A lot of what we take for granted will need to go (the airline and auto industries for instance). This will not happen. And you are helping to insure that by insisting that technology can save us. That keeps everyone from making the hard decisions that need to be made. Of course, you would have to have a very warped sense of reality to believe that anyone will willingly give up all of the luxuries that they currently enjoy just to insure the future of the human race. They would rather their grandchildren die a horrible death than give up their smartphones, cars, and big flat screen TVs.
Yes, I am a proud member of that doomsday cult that believes in reality over fantasy. The existence of solar panels with 46% efficiency does nothing to change that. Please try a little harder – I’d really like to get out of this itchy black doomsday cult robe and run naked through a green utopia of egalitarianism and sustainability.
You are just as wrong… but in a different way:
‘What we need to do is to power down in an orderly fashion across the entire world.’
http://snbchf.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/DeflationarySpiral.png
We MUST continue to use more energy — not less — otherwise we are left scratching in the dirt with sticks….
https://econimica.blogspot.com
One of the best sites on the incomming perma-deflation is again up
incl. the archive of older posts..
Well, add in the CB interventions and another picture emerges. The one with an algorithmically controlled economy since the 70’.
Let’s coin a new term, the energy entropy economic system completely controlled and managed by machine.
Could Gail perhaps research how the CB’s actually manage the shrinking of “more”. There must be someone out there with some deep insight in the basic principle of how the machine works.
I guess Gail won’t question the claim – observation that during last GFC all the global CBs coordinated rather closely their synchronized and sequenced out response. On the other hand she seems convinced they don’t understand the overall FW predicament, which I contest as not completely verified argument, because there have been specific gov/CB programs targeting the most spending chunk of the demography, hence all the credit towards carz, housing etc.. which kept the boat somewhat afloat by few additional decades. Plus the obvious geopolitical fight for access/deny in energy and markets (wars, coups/revolutions, now tariff/sanction)..
So in summary I posit they know, we might debate the depth – understanding of the vortex/predicament at hand though.
I guess the change in the 70’s from using oil for both transportation and heating, basically burning oil for warmth in the West, which have been managed to be used almost exclusively for transportation until now when we again are shifting into use coal and natgas for transportation.
The plebs burn coal as they charge their vehicles and the shipping and commercial transportation use up the remaining diesel shifting to both heavier and lighter fuels such as natgas, bunker and eventually coal powered combined cycle engines.
It is of course an established fact that oil and the economy goes hand in hand.
I am curious as what is behind the actual operation, the computation, models and technical detail of what is behind this computational machinery.
You are right. There definitely was coordination which had the effect of helping boost oil prices, as was needed at that time. We also know that Alan Greenspan talked about peak oil, as did Bill Clinton.
Now Jerome Powell seems to be intent on popping the world debt bubble, lowering oil prices, and marginalizing other users of energy products. The idea behind this would purportedly be to give the US some margin to lower interest rates, if a problem arises again. But really it seems to be a push toward marginalizing other countries, and their use of energy products. And popping a debt bubble that is not underpinned by much at all. I wonder if Jerome Powell really understands that doing this will likely push down the governments of many oil exporters, meaning that they have a lot less oil to export. Also other mineral producers, so we can’t, for example, make a whole lot of batteries in the world.
The battery production capacity is ramping up with new mines and factories opening up. It is undeniable.
The US with large fossil fuel reserves will of course not shift away from a successful paradigm. However, the means of consuming FF’s will be updated to the most effective means of production and consumption.
We will witness a change from direct drive fossil burners to indirect drive systems with combined cycle turbines and Stirling engines as range extenders for the ~ 50km capable battery packs for both cars, trucks and semis.
The full on all electrics are a waste of battery capacity and requires unreasonable updates to the existing power grid.
Coal burns just as fine in an indirect drive propulsion system as in a power plant.
All high grade coal produces is heat and CO2. Not a problem if you refrain from enjoying sucking the private parts of Al Gore and Leo do Caprio.
The dirty coal can be handled by centralized power plants with scrubbers and facilities of scale to reduce the poisons inherent in low grade burnable rock.
“The battery production capacity is ramping up with new mines and factories opening up. It is undeniable.” – You left out the energy part…here let me help you: “Burning coal, oil and natural gas has allowed the battery production capacity to ramp up as new mines and factories powered by fossil fuels open up. It is undeniable.”
” Of course, you would have to have a very warped sense of reality to believe that anyone will willingly give up all of the luxuries that they currently enjoy just to insure the future of the human race.”
yes!
I’ll repeat, since I like repetition, that this is the psychological phenomenon of “discounting the future”…
most humans value the present and near future much more than the far future…
this is the main reason why BAU is “locked in”…
and will stay locked in until it fails…
“I’d really like to get out of this itchy black doomsday cult robe and run naked through a green utopia of egalitarianism and sustainability.”
my robe is purple and satiny… perhaps you should upgrade:
http://www.doomsdayrobes.com
I’ve got a different take on this … if it ensures that humans end up extinct…. I am very pleased to participate….
We are an abomination. A cancer on the planet.
And our time is up …. no matter what we do … or don’t do
Well, no, we put the carbon back into the athmosphere where it belongs.
Without human intervention “life” on earth would end up in a permanent ice age.
We should stop using petroleum for transportation and totally shift to pure coal burning. Then shift to peat and continue burning until the earth is green and lush again.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/1804/northern-greening
https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/1000/1804/greening.gif
I wouldn’t say we are a cancer on the planet. It is simply just that the resources and environment which allowed us to thrive are depleting and changing. Soon, conditions on Earth will no longer be favorable for humans. Just as so many species before us have become extinct and evolved so must we. We have to accept that we are a part of Earth’s ecosystem not the master of it.
You have no basis for your assumption.
As long as there is surplus energy mankind will thrive. At least if you live in a part of the world that remains productive measured in energy consumption.
The problems is not the CO2, it’s the poisons that is emitted from burning low grade fossil fuels.
BURN MORE COAL!!!!!
How about this:
Cancer cells will use protein and fat for fuel in the absence of sugar. You may have heard that ‘sugar feeds cancer cells’, fuelling their rapid growth. Or that eliminating sugar from our diet can starve or stymie cancer growth.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2017-07-26/cancer-and-sugar-what-you-need-to-know/8701870
We prefer to feed on oil … but in the absence of oil we will feed on coal and gas 🙂
We cannot feed on solar and wind!!!
Right, we will burn everything to maintain BAU, eventually we will stuff in our hopes and dreams of a better tomorrow into the fires that will keep us warm and nourished.
Never cut down on a diet rich in carbohydrates and sugars from plants and fruits.
Instead cut out animal products since they accelerate cancer growth by releasing growth hormones and promoting acidic conditions in the colon.
Once the tumor starts producing it’s own growth hormone and metastasized. Well good night.
And, yes:
BURN MORE COAL!!!!!!
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/9b/48/a2/9b48a24b104ce344cf4107ac33cf6844.jpg
I agree on the diet advice.
I visited Houston last week. First time I have been to a mega city in a while. I was amazed at the the sheer scale of the roadways. Just in awe of the amount of energy it must have taken to build it all. And so much looked new. And mostly concrete as well. I could not conceive of any way solar panels and wind turbines could build that infrastructure. It couldn’t maintain it either. It might be able to support a handful of EV’s driving down that road. But, that is about the extent of it. All the heavy lifting is and always will be fossil fuel powered. Yes, and part of the heavy lifting is building wind turbines and solar panels.
Trying to use solar energy to build and maintain our gargantuan beast …. is akin to trying to a mosquito trying to lift 5000 elephants….
Its all about leverage, the correct ratio and persistence. 😉
Rubbish. Nonsense.
I have to be polite when wa nkers bring this sh it up in real life …. on FW … I will do what I feel like doing to people in real life … gut you with a dull blade and feed your entrails to rats
Speaking of California, as a continuation of this AM’s discussion, is this post by Robert Scribbler with embedded video: https://robertscribbler.com/
“California Has Already Cut Carbon Emissions to 1990s Levels”
Now how about them apples? In spite of massive growth in population, emissions are down to 1990’s level. Rather impressive, but also what the video discusses the need for reliable battery storage in making this transition.
We need to get way beyond lithium ion.
CA is what the rest of the Nation will eventually catch up to.
Well, no, “we” don’t.
What is needed are plug in hybrids with gas turbines and smaller batteries with some ~50 km of capacity.
In the rear view mirror already.
But, I’ll take it if it is remotely possible.
Even at 10% market share.
You will soon not be able to buy anything else than a plug in hybrid with limited battery range and a combined cycle turbine as a range extender.
It will burn basically anything that won’t foul it up. From petroleum products to coal powder. Yes, even peat eventually as the energy situation worsens.
Mark my words.
🙂
Get a horse.
Horses will be a luxury.
Actually, thy already are–
Oh! Sorry. Here I set at Sundown looking out the pasture and the goats and the cow and the dogs and I forgot the billions of people that live in cities. I read about people that don’t have a pasture. Or a barn. Weird times we’re in. Not enough debt? What does that mean?
Not enough income per capita. Enjoy your Sunset.These are precious times. We will look back on the wonder of hot and cold running water
Tell me how you make the metals and batteries for these cars, as the energy situation worsens. How do you keep global economic trade operating, for example?
We’ve had electric golf carts here on the farm since the 80’s. I would wonder if the idea could be scaled up. My cart is the most essential machine after the water pump. I can no longer walk as many steps as is required to keep the place going. Something to carry me and my water and my tools and my supplies with a seat and shade is a miracle. Twilight is wonderful but at 3:00 this after noon it was 95degrees and brutal. Life on the farm isn’t all beautiful Sunsets.
“Technological Superstitions”
– John Michael Greer
Commercial aviation left piston engines in the 50’s and never looked back.
The first to drop piston engines will be the semi manufacturers. Natgas combined cycle turbines and limited range batteries for dynamic driving extension capabilities as the turbine reaches its optimum operating power output regime.
A combined cycle turbine can reach up to 65% of thermal efficiency. At a very limited operating regime. Perfect for long haul trucking and charging batteries on EV’s.
https://youtu.be/KCt6n0pcGDo
Natural gas is a whole lot cheaper than oil. Anyone who can figure out how to use it, will. The question is how much can be ramped up, how quickly, and how much of a higher price level can be supported. In some ways, it is the average price of all fuels that is important, not the price of each individual fuel. (This is one point EROEI researchers missed.) If a cheap fuel can be ramped up, it can help leverage the other fuels.
Without the rise of China’s coal production starting in 2001, to average down world energy prices, it is not clear that the world economy could have gone on. The cost of energy products would have been too high relative to wages. With coal’s low price, its use could grow rapidly, unlike oil supply.
Is it that coal production is simpler than oil that makes it so much cheaper?
The fact that coal can just be scooped up from the top of the ground makes a big difference. A lot of the work can be manual work, so it goes back to the laborers, keeping the cycle going in places like China and India (until they decide to modernize the plants).
Shipping the coal is the big headache. Barge is the method of choice. Before oil, coal almost had to be shipped by water, because it was too heavy relative to the energy it generated. Now, if oil is high priced, it can be a big cost for shipping. But it still will be cheaper than oil.
The anti-coal people are quite right that coal is harmful on many levels. But then they don’t understand the various and complex harms of doing without it. The harms of trying to switch to renewables, for instance. Exceedingly costly and disruptive in ways that are overlooked. Another problem is that coal use and production has coincided with a wild ride of cutting down the trees. My understanding is that coal is good leverage. If coal is king it would be able to do more leverage work than it’s allowed to do now. And what would happen if it were correlated to an insane level of conservation instead of deforestation?
“The fact that coal can just be scooped up from the top of the ground makes a big difference. A lot of the work can be manual work, so it goes back to the laborers, keeping the cycle going in places like China and India (until they decide to modernize the plants).”
Thanks! This is what I sensed. So the plants must not be modernized (whoever has to take a haircut) and the coal must be shipped by sailing ships. It takes much longer, but it will get there (whoever has to take a haircut).
Where I live (the desert, suffering drought) has a lot of coal, while they have killed the old fashioned ways to produce it (and now have no industry). Where I originally hail from has a lot of water, but no fossil fuels. It sells water (indiscriminately) to the far ends of the earth. If some very well heeled entity could find I way to dig up coal here the old fashioned way, and ship it to my native land in exchange for water, that might be a worthwhile endeavor. But heaven and earth would probable fail to convince anyone that it was.
The power generation can be done near the coal deposits. If it is too far away from the consumption it will of course put limits on the infrastructure investments to ship energy over UHV transmission lines.
Thus “mine and burn” in the same spot for the low grade carbon rocks relatively near the consumer hubs.
The high grade stuff can be shipped and processed for other use.
However as a side note, a fantastic benefit of oil and LNG is that it can be processed in a liquid state. With Coal, it’s not that easy since it is a “soft” rock.
https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/fuels-higher-calorific-values-d_169.html
And as Gail states, it isn’t that energy dense. But what it lacks in sophistication it makes up in bulk and simplicity.
Thanks re the coal info. What if you don’t burn the low grade rocks near site, but ship it to warm countries that use it, among other feasible and low cast uses, for cooking?
Could that grade of coal fuel a steam ship for the needed transportation?
I wouldn’t be surprised if the market economics and the physics of fossil fuel supply/use aren’t on the same page. (Although they might potentially work better together than they do now.)
Well, the coal could be shipped with combined cycle fired with the same product they have in the cargo.
Of course the same applies to LNG shipping. Just a different fuel injector and burner system.
Single crystal turbine blades can handle a lot of abuse and if the quality is exceptionally poor, ceramic turbine blades will come in handy.
https://www.theengineer.co.uk/rolls-royce-single-crystal-turbine-blade/
https://www.ge.com/reports/post/119035992715/these-space-age-ceramics-will-be-your-jet-engines-3/
So yes, we can burn LNG, coal and peat for the foreseeable future to keep BAU going until the end of the century. Or basically anything with a reasonable energy density.
As of now the oil should be viewed as a valuable raw material instead of an energy source.
Much appreciated. A little past my pay grade, which doesn’t include anything the least bit technical or financial.
So we’re not concerned with what happens post collapse. Nothing. And the question is how to best leverage what we have now with as much independence (possibly little) from the financial system as we can muster. It would seem we could do better with coal (which is where the technical knowledge applies), but that requires changing minds. So Gail’s introduction on how leverage works could be expanded.
Leverage could mean that we use the coal much more strategically, combining it with something else like you implied. Done with sufficient sophistication, we might end up burning less coal.
Assuming that LNG comes from fracing, I would (irrationally or not) be looking for something else to replace it. This probably explains my interest in coal. No fracing for me.
Although I don’t know how water use in coal mining and fracing compare.
My old coal mining town has endless amounts of black water underground. (Something about sulfuric acid there.) Could that water work to wash newly mined coal? Not really looking for the answer, just anticipating one small piece of the web of issues to consider, were there ever a breakthrough in the gigantic cultural prohibition around coal.
High sulphur content in coal is a problem since it produces sulphuric acid once it’s in contact with the athmosphere. Hence the “Clean Coal” with scrubbers for sulphur compounds from the combustion.
It’s a cheap price to pay for charging our hipstermobiles by Enron Musk et. al.
https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/74706540/when-you-drive-a-tesla-but-have-a-friends-of-coal-license-plate.jpg
51.67%?
(Hint: price rise of Brent over 1 year- actually it is a bit more)
minus 3 percent…
Brent price since late June…
I like Paris.
I don’t
How many times have you been?
Two… I won’t give it a third attempt.
we need more data…
what year was Duncan’s last visit?
what year was DJ’s last visit?
when is the last time you went?
I have no personal experience there, but the big picture, that is produced by the information I see, is that it continues to go downhill…
-98 and -14.
thanks, DJ…
I will bet ALL of my Bitcoin that Duncan has not been there since 2014…
I haven’t. Paris is one of my favorite cities.
I have been in Paris twice.
The first and the last time.
🙃
Recently smashing hit #1 on all the decks up there from super yacht, super jets, to super skis , and beyond.. , quite likely immensely popular inside some space faring cockpits watching the collapse from out there as well, lolz
Seriously, look and focus on that frame where he seems to be genuinely-sincerely terrified to the bones, like in ” what they have done to it ! ” …
It seems there is going to be high volatility practically everywhere in the global markets this fall.
Was thinking..
Why not buy the stocks of the ‘plunge protection team’..
There are a number of central banks that have publicly traded stocks. Swiss, Japan, Belgium, Greece and South Africa. The ‘plunge protection team’ will be needed with vigour.. this fall, and pretty much next year.. non-stop.. surely these central banks must print.. billions.. trillions.. to buy up even more of the markets.
Currently all of the central banks together hold trillions in equity.. keeping the global markets from crashing.. hasnt been cheap..
In itself this is just absurd.. to have printed money.. buying equity.. with unlimited printed money..
To justify something so unnatural.. currently just those five central banks have publicly traded stocks..
So maybe this fall, and next year, more central banks must justify their actions. And when they do, when more of the worlds 103 central banks make their own stocks.. public.. this fall or sometime during next year.. to make it seem legit to buy tens of trillions in equity.. with unlimited printed money.. then.. immediately buy shares in those central banks.. because what can the ‘plunge protection team’.. do.. this fall and next year.. than print money.. non-stop.. buy equity.. and pay dividends to their own stock owners.. to justify something so unnatural
And if indeed some new central banks come out in public.. that would be an easy way to double, triple or quadruple the initial investment
http://jpkoning.blogspot.com/2013/02/central-banks-that-trade-on-stock-market.html
What has been the volatility in CBs arena recently?
Isn’t it much easier to gamble on “guaranteed boundary snake” performing stocks of “civilization importance” like TSLA, where intra month swings in the futures market have been like ~600%, for years, money for nothing. That’s why they have it and we don’t (sheer criminal mind audacity to daylight robbery) – it’s just circus mirage plain to see..
Memo to self:
A. Start a Hedge fund
B. Invest only in stocks of “civilization importance”
PS. Be on the lookout for new stocks of “civilization importance” and new central banks listings, to make a quick buck
PPS. Excellent way of taking other peoples money, to enjoy yourself, since investing and saving are in itself redundant, as civilization ends approx. between 2020 and 2021
They are evidently pumping the volatility from both ends, up and downs.. all based on fraudulent “monopoly game” money.. which can be then exchanged for shinny tangibles: chateaux, jets, yachts, art, private natural reserves, private security, political clout, ..
I side with Dr. Tim’s guesstimate <2025 no longer having capitalistic petro-fossil energy system, plus allow for some "can kicking excellence" at the plunge protection desk and or various socialistfar right circling wagons attempts, lets stay on the conservative side and say prior ~2035 major sparks through downhill staircase should be plainly obvious by then..
I certainly hadn’t thought of this kind of “investment.”
Identify and buy TBTF companies….
Mississippi goddam
https://www.democracynow.org/2018/8/30/mississippi_is_failing_as_prisoner_deaths
ah the land where people say Obama is a Muslim
https://youtu.be/E48QqcTOXeY
plus The only reason for the existence of Mississippi is to make Louisiana look not so bad.
And there are plenty of people that believe the Rep vs Dem nonsense.
Lets be honest- ‘Merikins are not the brightest porch lights on the block.
Smart enough to do the con, but too stu-d to realize the results.
Who is Obama? I have a vague recollection of that name. Anyone?
A center/right capitalist president.
His strong points were, he could put more that three sentences together in a organized way that made rational sense, and was not fat as a porker.
A improvement over past presidents.
But a clueless capitalist.
Ah, now I recall that black bullshitter.
Well, here is another fat dude who codes more and speak less complexed ignorance.
https://i.imgflip.com/1issnv.jpg
Hey Obama, talk is cheap, SHOW ME THE MONEYYYYY.
https://sayingimages.com/wp-content/uploads/angry-man-in-the-phone-show-me-the-money-meme.jpg
He is probably as good as you are going to get—
Late stage capitalism rewards:
kakistocracy (plural kakistocracies)
Government under the control of a nation’s worst or least-qualified citizens.
Never voted for the guy (don’t think iI even voted? can’t remember)
Do people vote around here? Now that is seriously dumb if you ask me.
Well, just because somebody is being smart does not exclude the possibility that they are full of crock.
On the contrary, the smartness usually comes with lazy reasoning. You know when the reasoning gets so dumb only a smart person can be behind it.
Thinking clearly requires fast adaptation to facts and an angels persistence.
Usually some degree of autism helps since personal flaws like prestige isn’t that important in the thinking process.
http://alexanderhiggins.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Obama-Legacy-9-Charts-1.png
i was think if even we finding some cheap energy solution in near future
and leaders of the world tell us we should go shopping and consume products
still game will over by 23th century
the reason is Africa population which is last hope for Cheap labor
will peak by 22th century mid or even early so what happen after that
the ponzi economy will collopse
The two games of musical chairs. That’s a good analogy for both the elite and the productive in today’s society.
The steady increase of human irrelevance coincides with the increase of entropy in the energy production which sets the foundation of the economy. The unproductive bloat will be the first to trimmed away.
Smite… are you in Toronto?
Nope, jockeying between the EU and east Asia. Burning kerosene in the process. Love it, but hate the jet lag.
When do we get aircraft engines that burns coal. I seriously waiting for the next step in aviation propulsion.
Everybody after me:
BURN MORE COAL!!!
Oh la, la, la..
BURN BABY BURRNNNNN!!!!!
Lets take a look at oil today:
OIL (BRENT) PRICE COMMODITY
77.72 USD +0.33 (0.43%)
Pretty flat, but still up campers!
Maybe its ‘dollar down’ as much as Oil up? Is there a Yuan price yet?
Brent is priced in dollars—–
However, if you insist (it will scare some people)
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CNY&to=USD
Denmark swings to net oil importer after North Sea production decline
A 25-year period for Denmark as a net oil exporter is set to end this year following output declines in the North Sea, the country’s energy agency said on Thursday after slashing its long-term oil production forecast.
The Danish Energy Agency expects this year’s oil production to reach 128,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from 138,000 bpd last year and 10 percent lower than an estimate given a year ago.
The lower production forecast was due to downward adjustments of North Sea resources, as well as delays and greater uncertainty regarding the development of several fields and discoveries.
Denmark has been a net oil exporter since 1993, when technological developments such as horizontal drilling made it possible to extract difficult reserves in the North Sea. Production peaked in 2004 at 390,000 bpd.
The flip to net importer comes as a surprise as Denmark was expected to remain a net exporter of oil for a number of years. But going forward, with the exception of 2024, the Nordic country’s oil consumption is seen exceeding production.
The energy agency cut its five-year production forecast by 14 percent and the long-term forecast by 8 percent compared to previous projections given in 2017.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-denmark-oil/denmark-swings-to-net-oil-importer-after-north-sea-production-decline-idUKKCN1LF11
Yes this was predicted for a while now. Just seems like everything is on the downturn now about the same time.
The Danish Energy Agency expects this year’s oil production to reach 128,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from 138,000 bpd last year and 10 percent lower than an estimate given a year ago.
https://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=2018-08-30T092951Z_GFXEE8U0QDRLD_1_RTRGFXG_BASEIMAGE.PNG
Interesting! I wonder what this will do for its support for renewables. A government needs surpluses from somewhere else to support renewables. Or they need to “lean on” the fossil fuel industry, to provide the support intermittents need.
Government doesn’t need surpluses it needs “keys” to the debt spigot – gusher. Now the question always ends up are they part of the “inner club holding the keys” , given the sensitive Baltic area, and some dissimilarities to Sweden (written off time ago) I guess they might be eligible for some fresh money.. Lets see what happens..
Indeed, the promise of unlimited credit and BNP expansion of Sweden hit the brick wall with the defacto currency devaluation.
Ah well, it was great while it lasted, mass immigration as a population, housing and consumption boom hit the logical conclusion.
Yes folks, Swedes in particular, the party is officially over. It’s time to hand the keys for the IKEA showpiece to the realpolitik behind Trump.
“California advances an ambitious climate policy that should be a model for the world
“On late Tuesday, the California Assembly passed a bill requiring 100 percent of the state’s electricity to come from carbon-free sources by the end of 2045. This puts one of the world’s most aggressive clean-energy policies on track for the governor’s desk.
“Movin’ on up: The new bill also moves up the state’s earlier time line to reach 50 percent renewables from 2030 to 2026. But notably, California regulators have said the state’s major utilities could reach that milestone as early as 2020. This underscores the rapid pace at which the energy transformation has unfolded since the state put its renewable standards in place in 2002.
“The testing grounds: California is acting as a test bed for what’s technically achievable, providing a massive market for the rollout of clean-energy technologies and building a body of knowledge that other states and nations can leverage, says energy economist Severin Borenstein. `We are showing that you can operate a grid with high levels of intermittent renewables,’ he says. `That’s something that can be exported to the rest of the world.’ — James Temple”
I admit I’m embarrassed to be in the State this is referring to (Fremont, CA — “Silicon Valley”) — and, that ‘s MIT Technology Review’s “energy editor”‘s writing (!)
They don’t call this place “Delusistan” or any such thing, do they?
I would move, if I lived in California. Of course, I partly I have been influenced by my small amount of visits there. Too much of the state is too crowded and has too much of a problem with wage disparity, and the low wage individuals not being able to afford housing.
The state has huge energy problems, both on the electricity side and the oil side. But it is in denial. Instead, it claims it can get along without fossil fuels. This is occurring when it is already being starved of cheap, local energy production.
How does this work out going forward? I really don’t know. My guess is that because of declining tax revenue, more programs have to go back to the states. There can only be less imports of everything, rather than more.
California is blessed with a much-better-than-average climate, so it doesn’t need as much heating and cooling as elsewhere. This should give the state an advantage energy-wise, because its basic needs are a whole lot lower. (Contrast this with Russia, whose basic energy needs are very high, to compensate for its cold climate.)
But California can’t export its love for noble causes elsewhere. Its plan isn’t even working out in California. It certainly cannot work out in parts of the United States where heating/cooling needs are higher. When programs go back to the states, California will discover that it is in pretty terrible shape. It certainly cannot afford to pay Social Security benefits. It cannot afford to import oil. It will be harder to import electricity from out of state. It cannot afford to subsidize teachers, policemen, and firemen, the way it needs to, if they are to have housing. California has a huge water problem, and a huge problem fighting forest fires. I am afraid it would collapse quickly, if more programs were given back to the state.
California has the 5th largest GDP on Earth.
We will see how long that lasts.
We could also talk about California’s water needs, and the strain the higher cost of desalination adds. Also, the need to add minerals back in, if desalination strips them out. I understand that Israel has been dealing with this issue.
4 crops use over 50% of the water in California (California supplies 25% of ag in the US).
They represent almost no GNP for the State.
Desalination is not going to be a issue.
Note- I’m not a CA resident
Avocado, toast … what are the other two crops?
Why are people always running down California? It’s a great place to live IF you’re someone with the means to afford it. If not then maybe some other state is preferable. Ever been to Monterey, Carmel, Lake Tahoe (water and snow ski), Santa Barbara, San Diego or up the CA coast via highway 1. We’ve got the 49ers, Raiders, Chargers, Giants, Padres, Angels, Dodgers, Warriors, Lakers if you like sports. It’s a gorgeous state. Our business allows us to live in a mountainous rural area with lake views that is magnificent! Small town positive interaction between friends and strangers alike, without the big city hustle and bustle – we love it out here and people are liberal, happy minded people, which we like. Only certain parts of CA are crowded. And yes, CA is working towards 100% renewables just as people claim it can’t be done or is foolhardy. And in the winter, sure it gets cool, but not bitterly cold like many states. Come visit us sometime. Take a week and drive up the coast and stay at VRBO’s. You’ll always remember your visit with a smile.
‘and people are liberal, happy minded people’
What are the rules in CA re: shooting liberals with high-powered rifles…. for sport?
I keep hoping that in CA they are going to drill those bores down far enough that all the comes up is sea water….
“Why are people always running down California? It’s a great place to live IF you’re someone with the means to afford it.”
There are numerous stories of Google and Hi-Tech workers living out of their vans or renting tents in the back of homes for $900 plus per month and that’s cheap compared to the rental prices of apartments. If you want to buy a house you’ll need at minimum $300K just to try and snag a rundown fixer-upper. Rents are SKY HIGH, taxes are as bad if not worse than New York.
The people I ran into while checking out the area about 20 yrs ago, where snobbish and their poop did not stink. Granted Cali is a beautiful state but has been ruined by liberal policies. Those that are fed up living in Cali are going North to Oregon where they’re not welcomed or Texas just to escape the crushing taxes.
High taxes to pay for renewable energy initiatives… liberals are ok with that….
I meant to type a minimum salary of $300K per year to get by.
CA only uses 8-13% water for urban use (depending on the year).
AG usually uses way over 50% often 80%.
And of that AG, Almonds, Alfalfa, Cotton and Rice use over 50% of the water.
In Israel, they have found that if agricultural water that has too little magnesium, so will the produce watered with that water. Having too little magnesium raises the risk of heart attacks.
https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Desalination-leading-to-deadly-lack-of-magnesium-547508
Jerusalem Post HEALTH & SCIENCE
DESALINATION LEADING TO DEADLY LACK OF MAGNESIUM
The mineral is vital to health because it maintains the heartbeat and thus prevents heart attacks.
Wow – that’s many more than are killed by Palestinians… perhaps Israel should target the desalination plants with white phosphorus shells….
It might even be good for their diet…
It will only increase.
That’s a good point, in terms of agri exports, people often forget the basic stuff like the US receiving ~1/3 more sunshine vs. Europe, which means a lot of boost for production – food exports..
More sunshine = less water.
They pumped it hard, but you are correct eventually the water table is salty, empty and unusable..
Burn more coal to desalinate water. Plenty of that stuff in the US.
http://carolfrank.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/dollar-symbols-3d_zJ4LuKHO.png
And the left over salt can be shipped to the green gr00pies and strewn on the homestead hippies farm lands and gently sprinkled on the ego wounds on the bribed “scientists”.
https://quotesnhumor.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/25-Funny-Salty-meme-3.jpg
“California? It’s a great place to live IF you’re someone with the means to afford it. If not then maybe some other state is preferable” – If everyone that could not afford to live in CA left – it would be a disaster for CA. Nothing useful would get done.
I lived in CA when it had 1/3 the population.
Please, it was better before all those bland, milk toast people started showing up– the techies were especially clueless.
I say, if you didn’t have a direct relative who was born in the State say in 1920, you will need a visa.
And they will be for a limited time.
Time to get the scum out.
This is the link to Carlifornias energy policy
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611945/california-advances-an-ambitious-climate-policy-that-should-be-a-model-for-the-world/
“A top banking CEO from Europe warned that his clients are starting to feel the impact from global trade tariffs, with production lines being changed and profit warnings being issued… “It is very clear that a trade war is not good for producer confidence to invest and for consumer confidence to consume. It already has (had) a negative impact on economic growth.””
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/29/us-china-trade-war-is-starting-to-hurt-our-clients.html
“International trade in merchandise by the world’s biggest economies contracted for the first time since 2016 against a backdrop of a stronger dollar and rising protectionism… The biggest drop in exports was recorded in Argentina with 19.9 percent, followed by Brazil and the U.K. Imports contracted most in Turkey.”
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2018/08/29/trade-by-biggest-economies-shrinks-for-first-time-in-two-years#gs.p=V7hSM
“The prospect of a slowdown was apparently too much for President Xi to bear. So, he ordered the authorities to loosen up on the monetary squeeze. The pretense for this change was the U.S.-China trade war. But in reality, President Xi’s change of heart has more to do with the dramatic surge in bankruptcies and sharp reduction in infrastructure investment, which has fueled much of China’s growth.
“We will have to wait and see whether President Xi’s gamble will pay off, or whether it’s too little, too late. At this point, the only thing we know is that exchange-rate flexibility has spawned imbalances and instability, Xi’s nightmare. And, this is bad news not only for China, the world’s locomotive, but for the international markets, too.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevehanke/2018/08/29/president-xis-nightmare-instability/#ae4b18c68fa2
Imagine, yes hard to do, regime change and implosion in China, voila the West gets another two decades or freewheeling..
Not really. What the world needs is a growing supply of cheap energy, enabled by rising debt. China is going through peak coal, just as the UK and Germany did. Regime change does not fix peak coal. Neither do wind and solar.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/china-energy-production-to-2016-bp.png
I clearly spoke about temporary dose of fix, which clubbed down aspiration of Chinese middle class would provide.. as people$ would flock to Western debt and consumption corridors again..
The west provides better bread and circuses for the time being.
The competent and productive Chinese get swooped up and moved under influence of US controlled territories.
Not good news!
Argentina’s central bank has just put its interest rate up to 60% in an attempt to bolster the peso…
Bail out on the way?
https://www.montrealracing.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/0715-champlain-bridge-crack.jpg
It feels like last year they sold century bonds.
Yep
https://www.google.se/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/06/20/argentina-sees-strong-demand-for-surprise-100-year-bond.html
Peak Globalization?
The 90’s wants back their globalists. Let’s build em’ a one way fully biodegradable time machine.
We can power it with the FE Sun Pipe™
The CEO doesn’t understand why the squeeze is occurring.
“The Swedish krona fell for a fifth day against the euro on Wednesday, after hitting its weakest level in more than nine years. The decline followed weak retail sales data earlier in the week and brings the Swedish currency’s losses this year to more than 8 percent against the euro.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-29/swedish-krona-at-crisis-levels-11-days-before-historic-election
“British shop prices rose for the first time in more than five years this month, as the British Retail Consortium warned that customers will face more severe price hikes if no Brexit deal is reached.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/british-shop-prices-inflation-brexit-severe-increase-brc-a8512546.html
“German consumers expect to have less money left in their pockets later this year despite wage increases in many sectors. “Higher energy prices that have driven inflation up to 2 percent may be drowning out the excellent conditions in the labor market and solid wage hikes,” GfK suggested. “People have realized that they don’t get any decent yields on their savings in this low-interest environment,” GfK economist Rolf Bürkl argued. “Plus they are seeing their money lose purchasing power as consumer prices go up by 2 percent.””
https://www.dw.com/en/german-consumers-cautious-as-inflation-eats-up-wage-hikes/a-45265484
“Including the Bank of Italy’s Target 2 liabilities would take the country’s public-debt-to-GDP ratio to around 160 percent, or to the highest in the last 100 years… it is all too likely that Italy’s troubled banking system will at some stage need a government bailout. [A] sovereign debt crisis… would certainly not be good for the global economy since Italy’s economy is around 10 times the size of that of Greece and after the United States and Japan it is the world’s third-largest sovereign debt market.”
https://www.insidesources.com/italys-debt-is-worse-than-you-think/
“The number of cars built in UK factories slumped by 11% last month compared with a year ago.
“Just over 121,000 cars left production lines, with a fall of 35% in models built for the UK, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. Car production for export in July fell by 4.2%.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/30/car-manufacturing-in-britain-fell-by-11-in-july-reports-smmt
Ouch!
Large part of it is actually the luxury market segment..
Just under 955,500 cars were built in the first seven months of the year, down by 16% for the UK market and 1.2% for export.
The domestic market is cratering…. surely this must be what is also happening across the broader economy…
The UK is TBTF….
Ouch!
Sounds a lot like falling affordability of goods and services to me.
Affordability of oil and other imported products is at a record low, I expect, as well.
“Spanish – and to a lesser extent French and Italian – banks have lent a lot of money to Turkey. So as that country spins closer to default, those banks and their governments are in danger of having massive holes punched in their financial structures.
“With Greece its usual mess and Italy’s bond yields spiking, the last thing Europe needs is a banking crisis…
“Next up apparently, will be an emerging market bailout in the form of a Europe-wide set of loan guarantees (managed and backstopped by Germany)… This might work if the guarantee is big enough relative to the debts coming due. But in effect, the result is the swapping of Spanish loans to Turkey for German loans. And there’s a limit to how much of the world’s debts even Germany can take on.
“Turkey, meanwhile, is just the beginning. Tunisia is teetering, Brazil’s currency is falling, and a big chunk of the Middle East has external debt but little in the way of resources to cover it.
“By the time this latest emerging market bailout is complete, the amount of debt added to developed world balance sheets could be enough to spread the pain pretty widely.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4202808-let-emerging-market-bailouts-begin-we-much-choice
“Turkey’s ailing economy has most likely plunged into a recession over the last month thanks to the rising crisis with the nation’s currency, and a fragile banking sector, according to new research from Capital Economics… A falling currency tends to mean rising inflation as the cost of imports increase, and that is just what has happened in Turkey. Even prior to the lira’s second collapse after US sanctions, inflation had already hit a 15-year high in July — close to 16%.”
http://uk.businessinsider.com/turkey-recession-capital-economics-2018-8
“Turkey’s economy faces fresh challenges after 20 of its leading banks were downgraded and faith in the authorities’ ability to support the lira plummeted. Ankara’s central bank effectively tightened monetary policy by changing banks’ borrowing limits for overnight transactions on Wednesday… But the moves have failed to boost investor confidence, with the central bank having lost credibility by not raising interest rates amid rapid inflation.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/08/29/fresh-woe-turkey-banks-downgraded/
“With a debt mountain of 12.17 trillion baht ($372 billion) at the end of March, the equivalent of 77.6 percent of gross domestic product, Thai households are among the biggest borrowers in Asia and they are finding it increasingly difficult to keep up with payments. In addition, their debt pain could increase because the Thai central bank has signalled it is likely to follow other central banks around the world and raise interest rates from near record lows.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-thailand-economy-debt/as-debt-levels-rise-more-thais-struggle-to-keep-up-idUKKCN1LF0D2
“Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri has asked the International Monetary Fund for an early release of funds from a $50bn deal to ease concerns that the country will not be able to meet its debt obligations for 2019. Macri said in a televised address that Argentina had agreed with the IMF “to advance all necessary funds to guarantee compliance with next year’s financial programme”.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/30/argentina-imf-50bn-loan-financial-crisis-macri
“Argentina’s peso fell to a record low against the dollar Wednesday after President Mauricio Macri said that he has asked the International Monetary Fund to speed up delivery of a $50 billion bailout package.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/argentinas-peso-plunges-to-record-low-1535578085
borrowing money to repay debts never ends well
But it has been shown to postpone the inevitable for a while, especially when no one looks closely at the situation. We have a name for working around the need for more debt when real estate prices collapse. It is called, “extend and pretend.”
These are very good points. Many dominoes to fall. Lots of failing debt to bail out.
It’s going to be a nerve-wracking autumn…
Over 93,000 candidates, including 3,700 PhD holders apply for peon job in UP [india]
As Narendra Modi government and opposition fight over ‘jobs crisis’ in India, another surprising news has come from Uttar Pradesh where over 93,000 candidates including Phd holders, post graduates have applied for peon jobs that have an eligibility of Class V.
According to a ToI report, 3,700 PHDs holders, 50,000 graduates, 28,000 PGs have applied for 62 posts of messengers in UP police. The post requires a minimum eligibility of Class V.
The selection for the job requires just a self declaration that the candidate knows how to ride bicycle
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/over-93000-candidates-including-3700-phd-holders-apply-for-peon-job-in-up/articleshow/65604396.cms
this is situation of jobs in the fast growing major economy in the world
this is why gov of india regularly doing shutdown of internet
because they fear civil unrest will come through from Frustrated youths
https://youtu.be/S7L0brpne9w
Yep, internet will be gutted down, sooner or later, that’s one of the very few venues where you can bet all your grandchildren’s savings with 99% success probability..
Recently, panicky bureaucrats said something to the effect that personal YT channels should be banned in the future unless applying first for professional broadcasting license (revocable).
Interesting! Not a good sign at all. A growing supply of ever cheaper-to-use energy is needed to keep economies operating, for example, adding jobs that pay reasonable well. When the energy isn’t available, jobs aren’t added.
Although I’ve been slow to understand the need (or possibility) for high paying jobs, I have to retract some of my recent points about that artist/artisan effort to revive a shell of an historic downtown.
Now I see a flourishing of tables with vendors selling oils in bottles that must have been imported. Trinkets. Jewelry. Overweight women studying them intently, clutching their purses. Children making beads and having their faces painted. They don’t seem to know why they are there, or have a role in the place’s identity. A strong sense of insubstantial “stuff.”
Working through intuition, I see something cheap and offensive about it all. I’d rather see everyone, including the poorest and the kids, cleaning and repairing things. So, I’m critical of this petit bourgeois approach to the economy while still not seeing where resources will come from for widespread high paying jobs. I think we have to go downward rather than upward in order to stabilize. But I’m learning all the time.
You know how whitey visits the third world… and comments with a certain level of smugness and racial superiority ….on how dirty and poor the people are…how they sell smokes by the singles… washing detergent in tiny one wash packs….
I am increasingly pleased to see the same conditions arrive in the first world.
Smug f789s. It’s all headed your way…. and worse
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4Ix8eQsOtBs/TkKPn63Va0I/AAAAAAAAA00/mnH6UilTj_0/s1600/tumblr_lp9ozfUTDK1qi9ssdo1_r1_500.jpg
https://youtu.be/a_bDc7FfItk
They shut them down in NZ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0pOONm-nW8
I have no time for the jibber jabber… what event are they referring to?
As you know NZ has been featured for decades on the list as the best place for surviving full scale nuclear war and or any major wind pattern distributed event, it’s just what some models tend to show again and again, plus southern tip of Patagonia and some other weird spots.
That’s like ~90% reasoning behind why fatcats have chosen to get bolt holes there. The Molyneux guy deal I don’t know exactly, he is perhaps too vocal about some uber libertarian shiyte and openly anti gov or such, so perhaps just another case of unwanted publicity as perceived by some inside the NZ circles..
a microcosm of what we all face
You stand on shaky ground… when you set precedents:
Group Areas Act was the title of three acts of the Parliament of South Africa enacted under the apartheid government of South Africa. The acts assigned racial groups to different residential and business sections in urban areas in a system of urban apartheid. An effect of the law was to exclude non-Whites from living in areas which were restricted to Whites (e.g., Sea Point, Lansdowne, Cape Town, Claremont).
It caused many non-Whites to have to commute large distances from their homes in order to be able to work. The law led to non-Whites being forcibly removed for living in the “wrong” areas. The non-white majority were given much smaller areas (e.g., Tongaat, Grassy Park) to live in than the white minority who owned most of the country. Pass Laws required that non-Whites carry pass books, and later ‘reference books'[1] (similar to passports) to enter the ‘white’ parts of the country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_Areas_Act
Precedents?
Simply, ~30yrs after the end of apartheid running such executions and violence to drive pockets of white land owners out of the country is way another league, and you know it !
SouthAfrican (-int tainted) elites clearly made very fatal mistake when deciding just “buying time” in the early mid 1990s by bribing some of the “new elite”, they should have instead carved for themselves smaller yet defensible sanctuary area with ores, land, water resources back then. And run it remorselessly like Israel or some of the Gulfies.. That way they would have secured much longer lasting, extended future for their people and peculiar culture at least in comparison to current development of events.
Now we just continue watch the inferno as the country collapses into farther away primitive society, the last white remnants will eventually resettle in Russia (as invited) or elsewhere, few hold outs eventually left to be butchered in the bright daylight and nobody would care.
i like when this issue has triggered white people of western countries
who supported end of apartheid
btw the black guy who called to kill white people saying
we still are not killing white people right now
https://youtu.be/GL4m2IdbNVY
Younger farmers are needed throughout Europe, they should be fast-tracked in to the West.
What ever one thinks about the past, they are hard-working and capable.
Instead, Teresa May who has never done a day’s real work – supports expropriation of land without any compensation,and calls it ‘an investment opportunity’.
China has sold off a fair amount of agricultural land, as a way of supporting growth in near where agriculture has predominated in the past. The agricultural land was previously commonly owned. When it is broken up, it can be used to build high rise apartment buildings and businesses, with all of this supported by debt, both with respect to the land and buildings. But this approach only works for a little while, if there is truly efficiency involved in the transformation, and if the government has not misjudged what level of standard of living the economy can really support. Before the high rises, most people lived in low rise homes. Often, they shared a common outhouse style bathroom (much better than India, without outhouses in many places!)
I suppose that Teresa May is looking at the Chinese approach. But more often, breaking up agricultural land into small plots leads to diseconomies of lack of scale. Workers cannot afford more than simple tools. It doesn’t make sense to use huge agricultural planting and harvesting devices that can operate 24 hours a day, thanks to GDP navigations. Most buyers have little knowledge of agriculture. Without energy products, about all they can add is new fortune telling services, and other low energy businesses.
Yep, May’s intent is just to help the City to live for another hour, another day by what ever means. So lets appraise the land confiscation – redistribution in South Africa via new debt instruments and derivatives, let the local gov crooks recycle their loot within global bank networks..
As I posted earlier the decision to abandon the settlers – white population there has been made decades ago, they are not making it in the equation. They should take the standing offers and relocate to Australia, Europe, Russia.. and or carve something for themselves hard core style, which unfortunately would be condemned by the “int community” and sanctioned in today’s sickly world.
It is over. SA has been abandoned by the core. It is just a convenient outcome with the appropriation of rights and property.
It will indeed be taken away and run to the ground with a much lower energy footprint in the future.
Shipping some fertilizer and surplus grain will keep the mouths fed. The productive will migrate towards the core and be of service to the new capital.
As entropy and irrelevance creeps closer towards the core, no one will bother about some failed state in Africa anyway.
Really? I would have thought it was the other way around (see below)
But I guess when it’s whitey wiping out blackie… or brownie … you count the numbers differently… how’s it work — one whitey family = 10,000 coloureds?
I must say … I was rather entertained watching that video …. boo hoo daddy was a good man and he was shot down right here… oh booooo f789ing hooooo….
On the bright side …. at least daddy wasn’t tortured….
Funny the presenter didn’t get into the ‘why’ of all of this …. but that would wreck her agenda … wouldn’t it
THE Truth and Reconciliation Commission studied gross human rights violations committed from March 1, 1960 to May 10, 1994. Some 20,000 victims made submissions to the panel, and about 7,500 others applied for amnesty for acts allegedly motivated by politics.
But five Security Branch police interrogators denied beating Biko and were exonerated.
Those officers have now applied for amnesty. They say torture was considered an acceptable form of interrogation.
Chemical and biological warfare: Hearings revealed that a special military research program sought a substance to sterilize blacks, created special devices – like orange juice laced with strychnine and poisoned chocolates – to kill anti-apartheid activists, and armed Mozambican rebels with biological weapons.
https://www.csmonitor.com/1998/0703/070398.intl.intl.3.html
So here’s the deal — might is right…. always…. if you don’t have the might … then my advice is … get the f789 out….
Because people who have been f789ed over by another group of people… have bloody long memories (I spoke to people in Indonesia who recall being treated very badly by the Dutch…)
And given the chance at retribution …. will take it
And when they see that the oppressor is living relatively large… while they live like dogs…. they are without question going to take — they are not going to consider the ramifications of seizing productive farms…
Make no mistake – this is all about revenge.
‘Now we just continue watch the inferno as the country collapses into farther away primitive society’
For those who complain about how industrialized society has destroyed the planet… surely the SA situation is…. headed in … the right direction?
You have to break a few eggs… when you are cooking up an omelette… no?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-28/sex-doll-brothel-craze-hits-toronto-80-whack
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/sex%20dolls.png
Ok… let’s just stop this whatever it takes thing… and let BAU die….
good for inflating one’s ego
It’s simpler than that, it’s all about serving the market of perfectly natural male sexual desires. The real thing is just too darn expensive and complicated these days.
Trump has one of those…
Them robots taking our jebzzz. Video games, drugs and porn for male population control. I like, I like it a lot.
The main wealth distribution in the socialist (social democrat) EU is between the mostly male in the private sector and the mostly female public sector. As the males grow increasingly irrelevant by their own inabilities a large influx of immigrants is used to cover for the shortfall. However, reality teaches us that it isn’t feasible to apply naive political political dogma on real systems. May it be economics without energy considerations or immigration without careful selection.
All the countries of the EU should be written off as a failed redistribution experiment directly as a consequence of trying to boost consumption by increasing the female spending.
Yes, the future is in the US and in east Asia where these tendencies have been kept in check.
As the energy per capita will decrease, the stranglehold on the few remaining productive will only increase because the majority of voters are still female.
Only a heavy handed administration from the US will make the EU clean up it’s act and lean towards conservatism. Unfortunately, this might need some radical interventions to drain the swamp and alignment to the current US doctrine.
With the EU leaning eastwards for its swan song, I find it hard to convince myself that this is nothing else than an inevitable march towards dystopia.
https://www.bbcearth.com/blog/?article=when-dinosaurs-roamed-antarctica
The kkkklimate she’s always a changg-in…
‘Great Mother, who makes all things to grow, and all things to rot; who renews herself through change…..’ Orphic Hymn.
I suspect the change that the Great Mother is thinking of is getting rid of us.
I wonder if we are going to set the record for the shortest run of any species on earth before going extinct.
There are F789ing worms that have been around longer than us…
And we consider ourselves ‘brilliant’….
http://snbchf.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/DeflationarySpiral.png
You forgot CB:s propping up failing enterprises.
Energy is too important to simply leave its supply to markets. In other words, nations still need to plan at the top level. Markets are good and useful but we have to remember that even markets in a modern mixed economy depend on government organization and guarantees (like the guarantees of law, contract and public order). “Free markets” are not absolutely free. Rather, free markets are only free within bounds: bounds provided by law and regulation at the behest of the people in a democracy.
The state plans the milieu or the setting, within which markets operate. Where states don’t do this planning properly, this planning role is now being taken over by corporations, especially transnational corporations. The alternative to democracy, even the rather limited democracy of the USA, UK and Australia, is rule by corporations and plutocrats (the super rich). The state properly should be the representative of the people. Deny the state (the federal government) planning power and you are essentially denying the people the power to plan their society, their nation, their future.
Commenters on this thread seem to take the fall of democracy and the rise of corporatocracy and plutocracy, followed by collapse and anarchy, as an outright certainty. They might be right. Only time will tell. I would hope however that democracy reasserts itself at some point. That is the only way we will get the coordinated planning which might make the future more survivable at least for some.
Whilst I applaud hard-nosed realism, this attitude is of no help if it turns into complete defeatism or worse if it turns into nihilistic and cruel cheering for collapse, misery and anarchy to be inflicted on as many people as possible. That sort of thinking, positing that there is no alternative at all, can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy as people give up. There are things we can do to give us a better chance of surviving even if it is at a much more frugal living level.
As a first step, we should begin energy conservation. People should have less cars and smaller cars. People should live with less junk food and less junk products and do more physical work. They would be healthier. If necessary, governments, by democratic demand or even by leading public opinion, should implement heavier taxes on the rich, on fossil fuels and junk food and junk products. We will collapse worse and faster if we don’t conserve our remaining resources.
There are alternatives to wasteful, inefficient, highly unregulated capitalism. A more regulated, mixed economy capitalism (state enterprise and private enterprise as appropriate) would be more able to deal with resource shortages and the limits to growth. Simply assuming that our economy has to stay as wasteful as it is currently, to run financially, is a false and unnecessary assumption. There are possibilities, other ways of running modern money system, other than letting corporations and plutocrats run everything for profit only and with no planning for resource shortages.
While we continue with unregulated capitalism, I agree, we have no hope. If we regulate and control our system properly we might have some hope. Some hope is better than no hope.
As a first step, we should begin energy conservation. People should have less cars and smaller cars. People should live with less junk food and less junk products and do more physical work. They would be healthier. If necessary, governments, by democratic demand or even by leading public opinion, should implement heavier taxes on the rich, on fossil fuels and junk food and junk products. We will collapse worse and faster if we don’t conserve our remaining resources.
wrong Wrong wRONg WrOnG wronG wroNG wrong WRONG
We MUST burn through MORE resources every single year setting new records … or else… what remains … will remain in the ground … forever… and we will starve and die off.
Yes, Yes, YES!!!
And this is where Britain’s humongous deposits of North Sea Coal will come in handy!
Scientists have discovered huge coal deposits under the North Sea that could power Britain for centuries.
Data from North Sea oil and gas exploration has been used to build a picture of the large coal deposits.
“We think there are between three trillion and 23 trillion tonnes of coal buried under the North Sea,” Dermot Roddy, former professor of energy at Newcastle University, told the Sunday Times.
“This is thousands of times greater than all the oil and gas we have taken out so far, which totals around 6bn tonnes. If we could extract just a few per cent of that coal it would be enough to power the UK for decades or centuries,” he continued.
Geologists are yet to discover the scale of the coal deposits, despite already knowing that Britain’s coal resources stretched out into the North Sea.
Roddy is to reveal plans to sink the first boreholes by the end of 2014 at a Royal Academy of Engineering conference.
Professor of petroleum exploration at Imperial College London Richard Selley said that such discoveries of unconvential energy stores were “game changers”.
https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/newly-discovered-north-sea-coal-could-power-britain-centuries-1442551
Wonder how much it would cost to extract…
should make a nice warm glow
And we haven’t even exploited those 100 billion barrels of oil under West Sussex yet. This is clearly the dawn of another golden age for UK energy production!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/ukog-share-price-explodes-as-gatwick-explorers-tap-up-to-100-billion-barrels-of-oil-but-will-the-10164546.html
Cheap to extract and deliver is the big issue, beside CO2 impacts.
Just drain the North Sea and start the operation. I can’t see the problem here.
Technology to the rescue. Let em natgas powered pumps start.
“Pumping for coal”. Now that’s a nice slogan for a green company.
LOL!
The only response to your call in action (and conforming to historical experience) is actually to stand up, go away and don’t play with the legacy system anymore on every or most levels: energy, food, security, ..
However, if you look around there are obviously no takers in significant numbers today and also the system is kind of still very nasty and powerful as long as it can mandate by force even around the perimeter – periphery.
I gather we are going to see a lot of this but not now, way later after GFC v2.0/3.0/.. shale bust etc,. when they can’t yoke you anymore so easily..
I don’t think more physical work would find many takers.
All the young working class people who have moved into houses in this village -which were designed in the late 1940’s to enable working class families to feed themselves, with huge gardens – have acted with one mind: whipping out their chainsaws, they destroy every plant and tree in sight (even productive fruit and berry-bearing ones) put down decking and instal huge trampolines for their kids.
Both sexes, vastly overweight, pale, tired, and sick eyed, lurch and waddle the few feet from their front-doors to the SUV, (parked on what used to be a neat lawn) in non-iron, made-in-Asia, crap clothing, unwilling even to walk those few extra meters to the roadside.
Enjoyed your last almost Kunstlerian paragraph, very true.
Not being rich, but there are still domestic apparel manufs to support, I’ve not shopped – bought Chinese textiles for *years, although I can’t guarantee some of JITs chains not spoiled by it to some degree, obviously it is somewhat that’s today’s reality..
*they markedly crashed in quality just around, prior to the time of their hockey stick growth agenda of late 1990s early 2000s. As I recall or can touch few items from early-mid 1990s their textiles where often of sound material quality (no recycled and chemistry pumped out shoddy Bezosian stuff)..
The issue is energy per capita. The “wastefulness” of our current distribution system is what leads to jobs for people. People don’t have to drive to Disney Land or Disney World for vacation, but doing so adds jobs. Our big problem is lack of affordability, which is a demand problem. We can’t solve a demand problem by reducing demand further. Your suggestions, including taxes on fossil fuel companies, work in the wrong direction. We would be better off trying to solve our debt problem by adding more debt. At least that approach operates in the direction of perhaps adding more affordability/demand.
We all know what happened when Germany tried to solve its energy per capita problem in the 1930s and 1940s. That is a much more direct way of trying to fix the too low energy per capita problem. We don’t like to think that that could happen again. But I could certainly understand a desire to, for example, ration health care to the aged. In fact, if a person seems to already be permanently out of the workforce, an argument could be made not to provide healthcare, other than palliative care.
Trying to “save” premature babies that weigh less than one pound seems like a true waste of resources. Too much chance that the saved baby will need life-long care. Or is that just more “demand” for the system?
It’s all rather perverse: in Europe we read of the elder care sector, the need to import immigrants to work in it, and the fantastic growth potential it offers.
Most people I meet would like doctors to put them quietly and kindly out of their misery when they can no longer manage their own lives and when requested, They don’t want ‘care’.
Rather like the ‘education industry’: doesn’t matter how awful the education offered is, how inappropriate to helping the young set themselves up for work, just stack those student loans up.
But it all contributes to GDP……
With sound money, we wouldn’t have that problem in the first place. Debt, aka future promises, brought us here. And it will bring us back to where we were. Without the commodities needed to ‘enjoy’ 7 billion people. Now we need MORE debt, just to survive. A sad state of affairs i’d say. True however if we want to maintain the good life for another decade. We squeezed the shampoo bottle too hard, we soon have to live with the unwashed.
I think you mean that we will be the unwashed, right?
Funny how it is “we should”. It always gives me the shits and giggles.
How about “You lead the way” and watch nobody follow. We are a certain breed of monkey “more”. Because “more” equals success and reproductive advantages.
You simply can’t beat evolution and what it dictates through eons of natural selection and survival of the fittest.
You might ask; then who is the fittest. Well, one thing is for certain. It isn’t anyone posting here.
Just keep on moving closer toward the core and hope that you somehow can stay relevant for the capital. But in all honesty, it won’t stay that way for a significant amount of time now.
Let me guess, you got kids? 😉
I am beginning to think Enron Musk is re tar ded.
Based on what I am seeing this guy surely has never achieved anything — did he really establish paypal or was he a front man for some programme initiated by the US govt… he most certainly has NO idea how to run an auto company (he’d struggle running a corner store)… yet there he is … the messiah….
Who responds to a ‘tweet’ when one is in the position of running a public company?
Who proudly proclaims that he takes Ambien and red wine and who knows what else?
Who cries in an interview with the MSM?
This is just plain infantile…. it’s a joke… he is a joke… this is all fake…
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/TRIPLE_0.jpg
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-29/hero-labeled-pedophile-elon-musk-poised-sue-libel
He’s a visionary. Unfortunately, he seems to be hallucinating. Them’s are some bad visions!
Can he please just OD and disappear … the joke has been repeated to the point where it is just plain irritating
Scientists find magic mushrooms could help fight fascism
https://bigthink.com/paul-ratner/scientists-find-magic-mushrooms-could-help-fight-fascism
“Researchers found unlikely heroes in keeping the world from authoritarianism – magic mushrooms. Scientists from the Psychedelic Research Group at Imperial College London showed that psilocybin, the active compound in psychedelic mushrooms, makes people less likely to embrace authoritarian views like fascism and more connected with nature. “
The availability of ‘More’ tends to fight fascism.
People are programmed to find a leader, to absolve themselves of making the hard decisions.
History is replete with people with strongly held beliefs; nature spirits, the clan, the church, the govt, the free press, the reserve currency, their driving ability, etc etc etc…and laterly, technology. Seems hard wired in. The one thing you can be sure of is that they never end well, and that they all end eventually.
Oops, thats 2 things….maybe plus death and taxes huh?
Shall we look at oil?
OIL (BRENT) PRICE COMMODITY
77.41 USD +1.49 (1.96%) 04:06:00 PM EDT
Let’s see if the price gets to $120 per barrel.
That would definitely spice things up!
Don’t think so Gail.
But it will continue to be going up.
okay, Duncan…
you win today…
so now…
it was almost $80 in late May and again in late June…
so it’s FALLEN since then…
can it get to $80 this time?
exciting!
I’m expecting it will continue to b a bumpy ride, but it will be bumping more down than up over the next few years.
https://proxy.markets.businessinsider.com/cst/MarketsInsiderV2/Share/chart.aspx?instruments=300002,5,0,333&style=instrument_double_precision&period=Maximum&timezone=Eastern%20Standard%20Time
The dollar has been on a long term dying trajectory. The treasury yield has been falling long term towards zero. The Fed is perhaps only trying to save the dollar.
Instead of letting the dollar die and yields fall to zero, the Fed is going against the course of nature by raising rates and its QT program.
The problem with the Fed’s policy is that it has caused a dollar shortage globally and led to the EM crisis. The policy has benefited the U.S short term through the inflow of dollars to the U.S stock and bond market.
The problem with raising rates and yields is that the housing market is slowing down as mortgage rates rise. The rate hikes are choking the main street economy.
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2015/02/5-us-dollar-index.png
Interesting perspective! Certainly interest rates have been falling toward zero since 1981.
The dollar index doesn’t follow the same path, however. It reaches a peak about 1986, when oil prices are low (because of the high interest rates). Then it falls down quite quickly, and stays low through about 1997, which is the time of the Asian financial crisis. The Soviet Collapse came in 1991, and Japan’s debt bubble collapsed about the same time.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/japan-residential-urban-land-price-index-graph.gif
The dollar hits another peak in the 2002-2003 period. This is about the beginning of the inflation of the US housing loan bubble through little underwriting and low short term interest rates.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/us-3-month-interest-rates-and-oil-prices-1934-to-2017.png
I suppose it is confusing because interest rates and high oil prices don’t go together. The early high interest rates were needed to bring the price of oil down. There was a recession in the US, as well as elsewhere, which reduced the demand for oil. The low interest rates make possible by QE in 2008-2014 helped oil prices to stay up. In this latter period, the dollar needed to be low relative to other currencies, if those in the other countries were to afford oil (and other commodities priced in US$)
Now the US would like a larger share of world oil supplies (and other commodities). It can perhaps get them, if it can jack up interest rates, thereby causing other currencies to fall relative to the dollar. So from that point of view, it makes sense to jack up interest rates and the dollar.
Yes, it is confusing. I must be missing something. How can a dying dollar experience low inflation, zero rates and yields? I would expect a dying dollar to experience hyper inflation, high rates and yields as the currency becomes worthless.
Why? Let’s illustrate it on the following simplified conceptual example, there is ~1.5B peoplez within the industrialized core civ. Now, let’s carve out of that 150M for the 10% upper layer or 15M of the 1%, who own or manage everything and are scattered across the societies globally..
These people even though of mid upper elite pedigree acting as herd animals won’t move unless severe disruptions loom on the horizon or better yet are starting to slam them into their pampered face, assuming there is some alternative offered to them anyway, which is not.
So, that’s why this juggernaut or any similar in the past simply won’t and can’t turn on a dime, it takes time in centuries, decades.. although in retrospect we might call out some specific peaks in disruptions, revolutions, collapses etc..