One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, we might include some other energy sources, such as biofuels or nuclear, but the story is not very different.
The problem is the same regardless of what lower bound a person chooses: our economy is way too dependent on consuming an amount of energy that grows with each added human participant in the economy. This added energy is necessary because each person needs food, transportation, housing, and clothing, all of which are dependent upon energy consumption. The economy operates under the laws of physics, and history shows disturbing outcomes if energy consumption per capita declines.
There are a number of issues:
- The impact of alternative energy sources is smaller than commonly believed.
- When countries have reduced their energy consumption per capita by significant amounts, the results have been very unsatisfactory.
- Energy consumption plays a bigger role in our lives than most of us imagine.
- It seems likely that fossil fuels will leave us before we can leave them.
- The timing of when fossil fuels will leave us seems to depend on when central banks lose their ability to stimulate the economy through lower interest rates.
- If fossil fuels leave us, the result could be the collapse of financial systems and governments.
[1] Wind, water and solar provide only a small share of energy consumption today; any transition to the use of renewables alone would have huge repercussions.
According to BP 2018 Statistical Review of World Energy data, wind, water and solar only accounted for 9.4% 0f total energy consumption in 2017.
Figure 1. Wind, Water and Solar as a percentage of total energy consumption, based on BP 2018 Statistical Review of World Energy.
Even if we make the assumption that these types of energy consumption will continue to achieve the same percentage increases as they have achieved in the last 10 years, it will still take 20 more years for wind, water, and solar to reach 20% of total energy consumption.
Thus, even in 20 years, the world would need to reduce energy consumption by 80% in order to operate the economy on wind, water and solar alone. To get down to today’s level of energy production provided by wind, water and solar, we would need to reduce energy consumption by 90%.
[2] Venezuela’s example (Figure 1, above) illustrates that even if a country has an above average contribution of renewables, plus significant oil reserves, it can still have major problems.
One point people miss is that having a large share of renewables doesn’t necessarily mean that the lights will stay on. A major issue is the need for long distance transmission lines to transport the renewable electricity from where it is generated to where it is to be used. These lines must constantly be maintained. Maintenance of electrical transmission lines has been an issue in both Venezuela’s electrical outages and in California’s recent fires attributed to the utility PG&E.
There is also the issue of variability of wind, water and solar energy. (Note the year-to-year variability indicated in the Venezuela line in Figure 1.) A country cannot really depend on its full amount of wind, water, and solar unless it has a truly huge amount of electrical storage: enough to last from season-to-season and year-to-year. Alternatively, an extraordinarily large quantity of long-distance transmission lines, plus the ability to maintain these lines for the long term, would seem to be required.
[3] When individual countries have experienced cutbacks in their energy consumption per capita, the effects have generally been extremely disruptive, even with cutbacks far more modest than the target level of 80% to 90% that we would need to get off fossil fuels.
Notice that in these analyses, we are looking at “energy consumption per capita.” This calculation takes the total consumption of all kinds of energy (including oil, coal, natural gas, biofuels, nuclear, hydroelectric, and renewables) and divides it by the population.
Energy consumption per capita depends to a significant extent on what citizens within a given economy can afford. It also depends on the extent of industrialization of an economy. If a major portion of industrial jobs are sent to China and India and only service jobs are retained, energy consumption per capita can be expected to fall. This happens partly because local companies no longer need to use as many energy products. Additionally, workers find mostly service jobs available; these jobs pay enough less that workers must cut back on buying goods such as homes and cars, reducing their energy consumption.
Example 1. Spain and Greece Between 2007-2014
Figure 2. Greece and Spain energy consumption per capita. Energy data is from BP 2018 Statistical Review of World Energy; population estimates are UN 2017 population estimates.
The period between 2007 and 2014 was a period when oil prices tended to be very high. Both Greece and Spain are very dependent on oil because of their sizable tourist industries. Higher oil prices made the tourism services these countries sold more expensive for their consumers. In both countries, energy consumption per capita started falling in 2008 and continued to fall until 2014, when oil prices began falling. Spain’s energy consumption per capita fell by 18% between 2007 and 2014; Greece’s fell by 24% over the same period.
Both Greece and Spain experienced high unemployment rates, and both have needed debt bailouts to keep their financial systems operating. Austerity measures were forced on Greece. The effects on the economies of these countries were severe. Regarding Spain, Wikipedia has a section called, “2008 to 2014 Spanish financial crisis,” suggesting that the loss of energy consumption per capita was highly correlated with the country’s financial crisis.
Example 2: France and the UK, 2004 – 2017
Both France and the UK have experienced falling energy consumption per capita since 2004, as oil production dropped (UK) and as industrialization was shifted to countries with a cheaper total cost of labor and fuel. Immigrant labor was added, as well, to better compete with the cost structures of the countries that France and the UK were competing against. With the new mix of workers and jobs, the quantity of goods and services that these workers could afford (per capita) has been falling.
Figure 3. France and UK energy consumption per capita. Energy data is from BP 2018 Statistical Review of World Energy; population estimates are UN 2017 population estimates.
Comparing 2017 to 2004, energy consumption per capita is down 16% for France and 25% in the UK. Many UK citizens have been very unhappy, wanting to leave the European Union.
France recently has been experiencing “Yellow Vest” protests, at least partly related to an increase in carbon taxes. Higher carbon taxes would make energy-based goods and services less affordable. This would likely reduce France’s energy consumption per capita even further. French citizens with their protests are clearly not happy about how they are being affected by these changes.
Example 3: Syria (2006-2016) and Yemen (2009-2016)
Both Syria and Yemen are examples of formerly oil-exporting countries that are far past their peak production. Declining energy consumption per capita has been forced on both countries because, with their oil exports falling, the countries can no longer afford to use as much energy as they did in the past for previous uses, such as irrigation. If less irrigation is used, food production and jobs are lost. (Syria and Yemen)
Figure 4. Syria and Yemen energy consumption per capita. Energy consumption data from US Energy Information Administration; population estimates are UN 2017 estimates.
Between Yemen’s peak year in energy consumption per capita (2009) and the last year shown (2016), its energy consumption per capita dropped by 66%. Yemen has been named by the United Nations as the country with the “world’s worst humanitarian crisis.” Yemen cannot provide adequate food and water for its citizens. Yemen is involved in a civil war that others have entered into as well. I would describe the war as being at least partly a resource war.
The situation with Syria is similar. Syria’s energy consumption per capita declined 55% between its peak year (2006) and the last year available (2016). Syria is also involved in a civil war that has been entered into by others. Here again, the issue seems to be inadequate resources per capita; war participants are to some extent fighting over the limited resources that are available.
Example 4: Venezuela (2008-2017)
Figure 5. Energy consumption per capita for Venezuela, based on BP 2018 Statistical Review of World Energy data and UN 2017 population estimates.
Between 2008 and 2017, energy consumption per capita in Venezuela declined by 23%. This is a little less than the decreases experienced by the UK and Greece during their periods of decline.
Even with this level of decline, Venezuela has been having difficulty providing adequate services to its citizens. There have been reports of empty supermarket shelves. Venezuela has not been able to maintain its electrical system properly, leading to many outages.
[4] Most people are surprised to learn that energy is required for every part of the economy. When adequate energy is not available, an economy is likely to first shrink back in recession; eventually, it may collapse entirely.
Physics tells us that energy consumption in a thermodynamically open system enables all kinds of “complexity.” Energy consumption enables specialization and hierarchical organizations. For example, growing energy consumption enables the organizations and supply lines needed to manufacture computers and other high-tech goods. Of course, energy consumption also enables what we think of as typical energy uses: the transportation of goods, the smelting of metals, the heating and air-conditioning of buildings, and the construction of roads. Energy is even required to allow pixels to appear on a computer screen.
Pre-humans learned to control fire over one million years ago. The burning of biomass was a tool that could be used for many purposes, including keeping warm in colder climates, frightening away predators, and creating better tools. Perhaps its most important use was to permit food to be cooked, because cooking increases food’s nutritional availability. Cooked food seems to have been important in allowing the brains of humans to grow bigger at the same time that teeth, jaws and guts could shrink compared to those of ancestors. Humans today need to be able to continue to cook part of their food to have a reasonable chance of survival.
Any kind of governmental organization requires energy. Having a single leader takes the least energy, especially if the leader can continue to perform his non-leadership duties. Any kind of added governmental service (such as roads or schools) requires energy. Having elected leaders who vote on decisions takes more energy than having a king with a few high-level aides. Having multiple layers of government takes energy. Each new intergovernmental organization requires energy to fly its officials around and implement its programs.
International trade clearly requires energy consumption. In fact, pretty much every activity of businesses requires energy consumption.
Needless to say, the study of science or of medicine requires energy consumption, because without significant energy consumption to leverage human energy, nearly every person must be a subsistence level farmer, with little time to study or to take time off from farming to write (or even read) books. Of course, manufacturing medicines and test tubes requires energy, as does creating sterile environments.
We think of the many parts of the economy as requiring money, but it is really the physical goods and services that money can buy, and the energy that makes these goods and services possible, that are important. These goods and services depend to a very large extent on the supply of energy being consumed at a given point in time–for example, the amount of electricity being delivered to customers and the amount of gasoline and diesel being sold. Supply chains are very dependent on each part of the system being available when needed. If one part is missing, long delays and eventually collapse can occur.
[5] If the supply of energy to an economy is reduced for any reason, the result tends to be very disruptive, as shown in the examples given in Section [3], above.
When an economy doesn’t have enough energy, its self-organizing feature starts eliminating pieces of the economic system that it cannot support. The financial system tends to be very vulnerable because without adequate economic growth, it becomes very difficult for borrowers to repay debt with interest. This was part of the problem that Greece and Spain had in the period when their energy consumption per capita declined. A person wonders what would have happened to these countries without bailouts from the European Union and others.
Another part that is very vulnerable is governmental organizations, especially the higher layers of government that were added last. In 1991, the Soviet Union’s central government was lost, leaving the governments of the 15 republics that were part of the Soviet Union. As energy consumption per capita declines, the European Union would seem to be very vulnerable. Other international organizations, such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, would seem to be vulnerable, as well.
The electrical system is very complex. It seems to be easily disrupted if there is a material decrease in energy consumption per capita because maintenance of the system becomes difficult.
If energy consumption per capita falls dramatically, many changes that don’t seem directly energy-related can be expected. For example, the roles of men and women are likely to change. Without modern medical care, women will likely need to become the mothers of several children in order that an average of two can survive long enough to raise their own children. Men will be valued for the heavy manual labor that they can perform. Today’s view of the equality of the sexes is likely to disappear because sex differences will become much more important in a low-energy world.
Needless to say, other aspects of a low-energy economy might be very different as well. For example, one very low-energy type of economic system is a “gift economy.” In such an economy, the status of each individual is determined by the amount that that person can give away. Anything a person obtains must automatically be shared with the local group or the individual will be expelled from the group. In an economy with very low complexity, this kind of economy seems to work. A gift economy doesn’t require money or debt!
[6] Most people assume that moving away from fossil fuels is something we can choose to do with whatever timing we would like. I would argue that we are not in charge of the process. Instead, fossil fuels will leave us when we lose the ability to reduce interest rates sufficiently to keep oil and other fossil fuel prices high enough for energy producers.
Something that may seem strange to those who do not follow the issue is the fact that oil (and other energy prices) seem to be very much influenced by interest rates and the level of debt. In general, the lower the interest rate, the more affordable high-priced goods such as factories, homes, and automobiles become, and the higher commodity prices of all kinds can be. “Demand” increases with falling interest rates, causing energy prices of all types to rise.
Figure 6.
The cost of extracting oil is less important in determining oil prices than a person might expect. Instead, prices seem to be determined by what end products consumers (in the aggregate) can afford. In general, the more debt that individual citizens, businesses and governments can obtain, the higher that oil and other energy prices can rise. Of course, if interest rates start rising (instead of falling), there is a significant chance of a debt bubble popping, as defaults rise and asset prices decline.
Interest rates have been generally falling since 1981 (Figure 7). This is the direction needed to support ever-higher energy prices.
Figure 7. Chart of 3-month and 10-year interest rates, prepared by the FRED, using data through March 27, 2019.
The danger now is that interest rates are approaching the lowest level that they can possibly reach. We need lower interest rates to support the higher prices that oil producers require, as their costs rise because of depletion. In fact, if we compare Figures 7 and 8, the Federal Reserve has been supporting higher oil and other energy prices with falling interest rates practically the whole time since oil prices rose above the inflation adjusted level of $20 per barrel!
Figure 8. Historical inflation adjusted prices oil, based on data from 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, with the low price period for oil highlighted.
Once the Federal Reserve and other central banks lose their ability to cut interest rates further to support the need for ever-rising oil prices, the danger is that oil and other commodity prices will fall too low for producers. The situation is likely to look like the second half of 2008 in Figure 6. The difference, as we reach limits on how low interest rates can fall, is that it will no longer be possible to stimulate the economy to get energy and other commodity prices back up to an acceptable level for producers.
[7] Once we hit the “no more stimulus impasse,” fossil fuels will begin leaving us because prices will fall too low for companies extracting these fuels. They will be forced to leave because they cannot make an adequate profit.
One example of an oil producer whose production was affected by an extended period of low prices is the Soviet Union (or USSR).
Figure 9. Oil production of the former Soviet Union together with oil prices in 2017 US$. All amounts from 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
The US substantially raised interest rates in 1980-1981 (Figure 7). This led to a sharp reduction in oil prices, as the higher interest rates cut back investment of many kinds, around the world. Given the low price of oil, the Soviet Union reduced new investment in new fields. This slowdown in investment first reduced the rate of growth in oil production, and eventually led to a decline in production in 1988 (Figure 9). When oil prices rose again, production did also.
Figure 10. Energy consumption per capita for the former Soviet Union, based on BP 2018 Statistical Review of World Energy data and UN 2017 population estimates.
The Soviet Union’s energy consumption per capita reached its highest level in 1988 and began declining in 1989. The central government of the Soviet Union did not collapse until late 1991, as the economy was increasingly affected by falling oil export revenue.
Some of the changes that occurred as the economy simplified itself were the loss of the central government, the loss of a large share of industry, and a great deal of job loss. Energy consumption per capita dropped by 36% between 1988 and 1998. It has never regained its former level.
Venezuela is another example of an oil exporter that, in theory, could export more oil, if oil prices were higher. It is interesting to note that Venezuela’s highest energy consumption per capita occurred in 2008, when oil prices were high.
We are now getting a chance to observe what the collapse in Venezuela looks like on a day- by-day basis. Figure 5, above, shows Venezuela’s energy consumption per capita pattern through 2017. Low oil prices since 2014 have particularly adversely affected the country.
[8] Conclusion: We can’t know exactly what is ahead, but it is clear that moving away from fossil fuels will be far more destructive of our current economy than nearly everyone expects.
It is very easy to make optimistic forecasts about the future if a person doesn’t carefully examine what the data and the science seem to be telling us. Most researchers come from narrow academic backgrounds that do not seek out insights from other fields, so they tend not to understand the background story.
A second issue is the desire for a “happy ever after” ending to our current energy predicament. If a researcher is creating an economic model without understanding the underlying principles, why not offer an outcome that citizens will like? Such a solution can help politicians get re-elected and can help researchers get grants for more research.
We should be examining the situation more closely than most people have considered. The fact that interest rates cannot drop much further is particularly concerning.
“…warning signs are flashing that another debt crisis is approaching, with concerns being raised not only by development campaign groups but by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The IMF says 40% of low-income countries are either in debt distress or at high risk of being so. The Bank says debt in poor countries is a “rising vulnerability”.
“Explaining how the world came to be on the brink of debt crisis 2.0 is relatively simple. It all began in the depths of the financial crisis just over a decade ago, when the response to the threat of a second Great Depression led to interest rates being slashed, to central banks boosting the supply of money through quantitative easing (QE), and to countries supporting growth through packages of tax cuts and public spending.
“The biggest such fiscal package by far was announced by Beijing and it was instrumental not only in turning round the Chinese economy but also in hastening recovery elsewhere. China’s exceptionally high growth rates meant it needed oil, industrial metals and raw materials, and this was a boon to those developing countries rich in commodities…
“Poor countries, assuming that the commodity boom would go on forever, borrowed in foreign currencies…
“If another debt crisis does erupt, the international community is not well placed to deal with it. “
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/28/g20-must-heed-global-debt-warnings-to-stave-off-another-crisis
“A decade ago, in the midst of one of the worst financial crises in history, a white knight appeared. An enormous Chinese cash injection helped the world economy escape some of the worst pain from the credit crunch. It was a massive fiscal expansion, worth an estimated 7pc of Chinese GDP. Combined with interest rate cuts, it restarted the Chinese economic engine, helping revive others at the same time.
“On the brink of another downturn, a further rescue attempt arrived, as interest rates were slashed, dropping from 6.4pc to 4.7pc in 2015. Lending boomed once more.
“Now the world economy is wobbling again.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/04/28/chinas-stimulus-can-save-world-economy/
World economic growth is slowing. China is especially having a problem, despite what it reports in its (highly manipulated) reported GDP numbers. The question is how long the debt Ponzi Scheme can keep growing.
“If we find ourselves in a really serious downturn and conventional measures don’t offer any prospect of success, then it would be defensible to ward off an economic disaster by implementing a money-financed fiscal expansion [MMT].
“But there are severe risks attached to such an approach.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/04/29/taboo-should-broken-extreme-circumstances/
For example, if Quantitative Tightening is causing a severe problem, and we hope that MMT will somehow offset it.
Yes, the Ponzi will get only way bigger..
MMT has been popping up more and more in the news of late – the hive mind preparing itself for its next financial leap of faith, as it continues trying to outwit the laws of physics.
I guess they attempt it full head on, resulting in massive volatile triage which in turn and to surprise of many planners folds even few of the former core IC hub countries – regions with it.. But other hubs would soldier on for a while, obviously on different footprint, less frivolous opulence like private carz, cheap vacation flights, overflowing fridges etc..
What is your vitae Gail? Just curious. It almost reads that you believe that energy must be.wasted to continue global progress. One chart you called it energy use when it actually showed only oil. What if I told your audience here you don’t have that long term luxury. The wells are going for even more diminished returns and one shale oil and gas engineer said this ride will be over soon.
I come with a financial background, through my training and work as a casualty actuary. I have been concerned about the oil and energy situation since 2005, and left actuarial consulting in 2007 to work full time on the issue. I have learned a great deal about a wide variety of subjects from many different sources since that time. I wrote for and was editor at The Oil Drum for several years. In this capacity, I learned a great deal about energy related issues. Commenters on this website have added to the mix.
I also know how to look at online data, and make little exhibits from it that show relationships that many researchers miss. Several research organizations have invited me to give presentations of my work to them, and I have written up some of my work for academic publishers. I have also traveled quite a bit on vacations, to see close up how the system seems to work in a number of countries. I have corresponded with researchers from a variety of fields. I have the ability to pull together findings from many fields that many conventional researchers are lacking.
You say, “One chart you called it energy use when it actually showed only oil.” Please point this out to me, and I will fix it. I try to get my labeling correct. I suppose I could miss something sometimes, but usually I have enough knowledgeable commenters that they will point out an error to me.
I very much agree that the shale ride will soon be over. If we could get the price up to $300 or $500 per barrel, the shale ride could go on endlessly, but we cannot get the price to a high level, and keep it there. This is the fundamental problem. Prices are set by the laws of physics. They cannot rise higher than what can be supported by the aggregate demand of the consumers and businesses in the world. If there is too much wage disparity, it tends to bring prices down because the many poor consumers around the world cannot afford finished goods made with energy products, such as homes and automobiles.
i also heard that China is tripling their Navy fleet compared to the US obviously preparing for the inevitable War between them
Sounds worrying!
“At present, all signs point to higher oil prices.” https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-An-OPEC-Oil-Supply-Surge-Wont-Happen.html
This bloke just doesn’t seem to get it, that the oil is sold at auction, & bidders don’t want to pay more than they can profitably recover from the end-users of the products (IE, what the end users can AFFORD).
By the way, does anyone know why Matt M. hasn’t updated http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs lately? (I found that info so interesting.)
Peak oilers seem to believe that oil prices rise because of scarcity, not because of high demand. Without understanding the financial system and where “demand” comes from, the whole concept of affordable supply (demand) is beyond the understanding of most peak oilers.
There can be a small scarcity spike, but it is not long lasting enough lasting to help.
I wrote to Matt, asking him about doing an update to his graph. He is a commenter on this site, from time to time, you may have noticed.
This should be easy for us to grasp. It should be the simplest thing. So where did we veer away to where the subject is such a mystery?
Climate change modelers seem to have the same problem.
I think the problem comes from the simpleminded Supply and Demand model of economists.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/33-low-energy-supply-affects-both-supply-and-demand.png
I believe the modelers have trouble because they think money is somehow equitably distributed are by its own will eventually fill in any low lying areas of the working economy. The point Gail makes is valid – prices are becoming too high for the average person to afford and too low to produce it. Hence the diminshing supply which makes the prices even higher in theory.
Years ago I dated a woman who was struggling financially. She was a school teacher and was wanting me to help her payoff her car ($7500 if I remember right). I don’t make much more than the average school teacher but I do save and live frugally so I had it. I said it’s only $7500 so it should be easy to payoff. Her response was it might as well be 75 million.
The point is the modelers don’t get is that once something becomes unaffordable to the average bear either the price will have to come down (which for now it seems to be doing / trying to) or no one is going to use it or can purchase it.
It is easier to produce a nice graph than squeeze water out of rocks or in our case squeeze oil out of rocks 4000 feet under the earth.
(For those wondering I didn’t help payoff the car and she broke up with me not long after – the next woman I dated I married and bought her a car so I’m still out $).
Anyhoo, enjoy the quiet before the storm – it’s going to be a mother F’er.
Low energy affects supply and demand, so shortages don’t necessarily lead to high prices. Everybody should pin that on the wall.
food price? Vancouver, Canada area
Well, looky here watermelons for sale 8.99 each from 9.99 each lol
Yeah, I guess we are now what a Bahama’s area island?
Ridiculous.
“When CO2 emissions linked to the production of batteries and the German energy mix — in which coal still plays an important role — are taken into consideration, electric vehicles emit 11% to 28% more than their diesel counterparts, according to the study, presented at the Ifo Institute in Munich.
Mining and processing the lithium, cobalt and manganese used for batteries consume a great deal of energy… The CO2 given off to produce the electricity that powers such vehicles also needs to be factored in, they say. When all these factors are considered, each Tesla emits 156 to 180 grams of CO2 per kilometre, which is more than a comparable diesel vehicle produced by the German company Mercedes, for example”
http://brusselstimes.com/business/technology/15050/electric-vehicles-emit-more-co2-than-diesel-ones,-german-study-shows.
China is getting into the electric vehicle business because it helps them ramp up their economy. They can use their own coal to power the vehicles, instead of imported oil. They can make lots of batteries, and they can mine lots of rare earth minerals. They would like to sell them to people outside of China. Even if they only sell parts (such as batteries) to people outside of China, it helps the economy of China grow.
Unbeknown to most of us, China already totally dominates the global EV market, except at this point most of its sales are internal. From this launch pad they aim to totally dominate world sales, like they now do with solar panels. They have everything in place to do so and will beat the pants off any competitor on price. The only thing stopping them may be a collapse of their economy or the global economy (which go hand-in-hand anyway.)
The post war near miraculous growth in the West, leading to a standard of living never even dreamt of, was underpinned by two factors: abundance of cheap energy and the availability of credit. By the end of the century the latter was overdone, credit was extended to those who didn’t qualify, energy became too expensive essentially because the AGW fruitcakes pushed for sources of energy other than fossil based that are by far too expensive to fuel another long term bout of growth.
It’s the time for the East to have a go, the Western model of economic management’s finished. Anyone young enough should learn Mandarin.
China significantly raised their standard of living in this century…
how?
FF and debt…
the East has given it a go, and it has been just like the West…
Well, you have to take into account even ‘Asia’ is not a monolith entity, they are all on dissimilar development-maturity path. For instance Japan ran its industrial colonial empire even before WWII there, nowadays their mainland is the most saturated and aged region out there.. The city states like HK, Singapore and ~Taipei/wan are also past the most vibrant period. And the so-called new comers like Vietnam are just relatively small and apart from usual focus on city/industry hubs not that smart anyway (lush forests turned into ~3rd global biggest coffee plantations etc)..
And the proverbial biggest gorilla China itself is mostly producing shoddy quality stuff also having huge antagonist issues with direct or longer distance neighbors, similarly Japan used to have, be it on a bit lower bad blood intensity for sure for now..
But you could be right that these ‘antsy’ more integrated societies in Asia could in some scenario out live the crumbling West for a while.. that’s one of the scenarios I put some %% years ago as well..
https://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/114985/living-integrity
Sometimes I’m critical of Chris Martenson, but I enjoyed this podcast – particularly the segment between 26 minutes and 34 minutes on depression vs demoralization.
Thought I’d share it with all of you if you haven’t came across it yet.
Cheers,
-GBV
Coming from a privileged class on the East Coast, we must give Martinson some ease on his political literacy.
I do enjoy his podcasts, and smile at his limited exposure.
Chris Martenson, like Peter Schiff is very cerebral and knowledgeable, but I don’t know how to say it…. these guys don’t have any practical street smarts. I would not place any money on their “predictions.”
I tend to favour predictions that extrapolate from all the worst features of what is actually going on now, and which do not look to sudden changes for the better or drastic improvements in human intelligence or nature.
At the very least, human beings are likely to be very confused, and often self-deluded, animals which will make terrible choices and become violent and irrational when stressed.
Thanks. Maybe he was rushed at the end or something, but I liked the talk. Glad he touched on beauty.
GBV, thanks for the link. In a sense I think Martenson is correct about ‘Integrity’ from a philosophical standpoint, however, misses the point that integrity is devolving right alongside diminishing returns. Meaning, corporations, people, businesses, etc. are more and more willing to reduce or eliminate any kind of integral ideas to grab as much as possible on the way down, no matter how destructive it might be. We’re way past ever having an integrity transition. All people have to do now is watch the ship list (riots) and take on water (migration) and so on until collapse fully takes hold.
Every government in trouble sends the tax collectors in, and they never care if they might be driving you into destitution, or how fair it is.
Moreover, corporations and vested interests can now try to lock us into their new technologies, even if that, too, forces us into near- destitution, and despite the fact we really might not want to use them and pay that monthly contract fee.
Monthly contracts for imposed ‘essentials’ are the new feudalism, are they not?
The wheels will grind us ever finer until…..
It should give a certain zest to living now: this really is as good as it is ever going be, if you are still solvent and comfortable – and that is most of us.
Businesses figure out a way to sell water at a high price, for example. In their view, this encourages conservation. But from the point of view of the poor, it leaves too little funds for buying the necessities of life. This conflict is what causes the system to collapse.
I’m not sure. I could see the lack of integrity everywhere 50 years ago. It might not have been too late then to create a better today, but neither did I know how to put my concerns into transmittable form nor had society sufficiently worked through the error of its ways. I suspect that critical mass has something to do with it. We certainly have more of that today than 50 years back. It’s the ideas that seem like the problem, and those have a mind and trajectory of their own.
The WTI crude oil price looks like it’s just about break down from its rising wedge.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5L_ohKWkAcaUTS?format=jpg&name=medium
We will get to see in the next few weeks. Oil producers have been putting out pretty disappointing results at current price levels. The number of US drilling rigs dropped by 21 last week, which is a whole lot. At the same time, oil prices are noticeably high from the point of consumers. And the amount of oil in storage is growing, indicating that consumers cannot seem to afford the current price level. So we have a situation where everyone is unhappy.
OPEC may have to cut production AGAIN…
and again… and again… etc…
Reduction after reduction in oil supply is the way it going. Producers quit because the price is too low. Or their governments collapse, because they cannot collect enough taxes at the international oil prices. The whole idea that prices rise endlessly is nonsense.
The whole idea of international energy prices seems nonsense too, hopefully it will diverge alongside regional differences once more..
the fundamental problem underlying all this derives from the idea that we can turn the planet into property, and buy and sell it.
when stuff is bought and sold, the system can only continue to function if there’s a constant supply of ‘more’ of everything that can be brought to market.
right now there is universal chaos kicking off because supplies of marketable goods are getting less and less, (or becoming unaffordable) while the number of human beings wanting ‘stuff” is constantly increasing.
Add to that the denial that is happening at all, and you’re left with collective insanity.
https://medium.com/@End_of_More/our-world-is-not-our-property-eec56987036b
Thank you Norman, it is time we start talking about the collective insanity. It is so far detached from reality it has become dangerous. A cargo cult on steroids.
Ev bikes, scooters and motorcycles and autos are seeing more purchases and interest.
Bloombergs commodity index doesn’t look so good either.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5TdxnMWwAIU14K?format=jpg&name=large
Good point!
WTI was over $66 on Thursday…
now it’s in the $62’s…
could reverse and go higher…
but if $66 is the high for the year, that ain’t much…
Here’s my WTI chart using EIA weekly data, the line running from 145 on the left to 12 on the right is the price that I believe that the world economy needs to be below for growth. It’s now been 17 months of overpriced oil with the next lower high maybe around $70 but for any growth we need oil below $36 currently.
I don’t know how it’s going to work out, it’s just the trend since 2008 and it hasn’t reverse yet.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/h2ailzn44mpcijx/WTI-MAP%20Apr292019.png?dl=0
Nice additional take on the classic ‘triangle of doom’ graph – the latest episode beyond 2015 was chiefly made possible thanks to a lift-athlon provided by the formation of OPEC+ and Chinese printing, and few other token things (Donnie-US corp). But entering ~2020-25-30 phase surely seems like the end of road for quasi BAU part of the story..
As I keep saying, “Our problem is that we cannot get the oil price (and other energy prices) up to a high enough level to keep business as usual operating.” Your view is very much in corresponds with this.
well, well, well, take a gander at this:
Exxon Mobil Corp.’s worst refining performance in almost two decades may revive questions about the so-called integrated model engineered by founder John D. Rockefeller and espoused by every CEO in the company’s 149-year history.
A surprise loss in a business line Exxon typically relies on to prop up more volatile units eroded first-quarter profit and cast doubt on the strength of the oil titan’s comeback from its annus horribilis in 2018.
In the last decade, when other oil companies spun off refining businesses to concentrate on drilling for crude, Exxon steadfastly adhered to the wells-to-retail model. The refining loss is particularly stinging for Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods, who rose through the ranks of the fuel-making side of the company rather than the oil-exploration business of his chief competitor for the top job, Senior Vice President Jack Williams, and predecessor Rex Tillerson.
Exxon’s structure “remains fundamentally strong,” Williams said during a conference call on Friday. It’s part of “our advantage versus the industry that’s going to help us manage through this volatility.”
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/exxons-refining-shocker-puts-rockefeller-legacy-in-doubt/ar-BBWlFIS?ocid=spartandhp
well, the integrated model worked for 147 years…
not bad…
when the Senior Vice says those 3 words “remains fundamentally strong ” it means one thing that the company is about to go bust.
This company can’t and won’t go bust as long as there are enough other easier pick victims for feeding the infernal triage burner around the globe. At best it could be rearranged into more directly ‘gov’ backed and operated structure..
As you were saying…..
https://srsroccoreport.com/lousy-shale-economics-financial-troubles-continue-at-exxonmobil/
I’ve been absorbed in The Energy Skeptic Alice Friedman’s recent review of A. Wrigley’s 2010 history book Energy and the English Industrial Revolution.
There are lots of fascinating observations and “factoids” in this that will either greatly change or else greatly expand almost anyone’s perspective on how coal transformed first England and then the rest of the World from “organic” wood-fueled and land-based agrarian to the groovy funky and digitalized u/distopia we all love and hate.
Indeed, there is so much quotable stuff in this article that its hard to pick out my favorite bits. So I’ll just copy a slice of it to give an idea of the flavor.
In his pioneering study of migration during the industrial revolution period, Redford laid stress upon the evidence that agricultural wages were highest near the new concentrations of industry and declined steadily with distance from these centers. In rural areas close to manufacturing, mining, or commercial centers people moved to the town from the country to better their lot. The increase in the prevailing wage level in agriculture which resulted in turn attracted agricultural laborers to move from more distant parishes to replace them. He insisted that ‘the motive force controlling the migration was the positive attraction of industry rather than the negative repulsion of agriculture’. As Chaloner remarked in his preface to the third edition of Labor migration, Redford insisted that ‘The rural population was attracted into the towns by the prospect of higher wages and better opportunities for employment, rather than expelled from the countryside by the enclosure movement.’
Expectation of life at birth declined substantially during the 17th century, reaching a nadir in the period 1661–90 when, for the sexes combined, it averaged only 33.8 years. By the beginning of the nineteenth century there had been a major change. In 1801–30 it averaged 40.8 years.
Although overall levels of mortality improved markedly, the improvement was not evenly spread among the different age groups. In the 17th century adult mortality had been very severe; infant and child mortality, in contrast, though crippling by the standards of the 21st century, had been relatively mild. During the ensuing century adult mortality improved sharply. Expectation of life at age 25 for the sexes combined rose by five years from 30 to 35 years between the end of the 17th and the end of the 18th century. At younger ages any improvement was very limited, with one exception. Mortality within the first month of life, often termed endogenous mortality, fell dramatically due to falling rates in maternal mortality and the rate of stillbirths. Deaths later in the first year of life were mainly caused by infectious disease, and were as high in the early 19th century as the past century
From the mid-16th century onwards England’s chance of escaping the Ricardian curse gradually improved as its dependence on the land as the prime source of energy was reduced by the steadily increasing use of coal. This in itself, however, was no guarantee of ultimate success. Put simply, coal use could overcome a barrier which had long appeared insuperable on the supply side, but without a matching change in demand a breakthrough might have proved elusive. Coal was mined and consumed on a substantial scale in parts of China from the 4th century onwards and may have reached a peak in the eleventh century, but it did not lead to a transformation of the economy. It is in this context that the demographic characteristics of a country assume importance.
http://energyskeptic.com/2019/book-review-of-wrigleys-energy-and-the-english-industrial-revolution/
This is a chart of Wrigley’s that I keep showing. I found it quite a few years ago.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/wrigleyfig1-e1346123057549.gif
I should read Wrigley’s book.
His book “Energy and the English Industrial Revolution” was published in 2010 both in hard cover and paperback.
I recently created a document outlining the links between ironworking, canal building and transport of essential materials into foundries and forges at the start of the industrial revolution (1780s), how the whole thing kicked off back then
Highly localised because this was exactly where it all started
might be of passing interest to fellow doomsters
/Users/norman/Library/Containers/com.apple.mail/Data/Library/Mail Downloads/63182E68-026C-4560-91E6-DB86F3E9150F/KCan.KN1.pdf
Can you upload the PDF somewhere? Or email it to me and I can upload it at OurFiniteWorld.com?
This link won’t work.
This should be a better link to Norman’s PDF:
The History of the Ketley Canal
Norm, thanks for this most impressive presentation. It certainly belongs in a curriculum. I shared it liberally around on Facebook.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2019/04/pagett-history-of-the-ketley-canal.pdf
I took time to look at the presentation; it is very impressive, I agree. This link should be good as long as I keep paying WordPress my fees, if anyone wants to post a link to it.
+++++
thank you for your kind words Art and Gail
I produced it for my local history society, but thought it might have some relevance to the global energy thing because it was part of what started it all 200+ years ago
Fantastic presentation and well explained the whole transition of the canal evolution and engineering challenges faced in those times. We are indeed a product of out times, how we react is the defining judgement. Like the PBS a long, long while ago by an Englishman named James Burke called “Connections”. Very popular when it aired and a book was placed out based on the series.
The Technology Trap clip..when diaster strikes
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MPcZ_5uCldg&list=PLOnOzB68sA8C_FXJcywD1eEwrjM22cJ6p&index=31&t=0s
glad you liked it Supertramp
It wasn’t till I’d finished it that I realized it might have a much wider application because
the business of modern civilisation is really only based on shifting stuff from A to B then altering its composition so that it can be bought and sold elsewhere.
the faster that can be done, the more money is made, those guys back in 1700s didn’t know what they were starting!!
I agree. This presentation was very well put together. Norman has brought the industrial revolution to life. Also, the ingenuity of the builders in using the lowering of a full incoming top raise an empty outgoing barge without the need for mechanical or muscle power is impressive.
I wonder if the mine + canal + ironworks enterprise paid for itself in the short time it was in use?
Thanks Tim
It is a most fascinating construction
it functioned more or less for the era of the Napoleonic wars, and warfare is the driving consumer of iron. It was the prototype and 4 more were built by 1793
the war ended in 1815, and the system closed in part in 1816, and had finished as a complete entity by 1818, so it had run for about 28 years. So it must have been profitable for that period.
They were Quakers, so pacifists, but had no problems in making cannon for everyone else to use.
The overall canal system (of which that was just one section) ran until the 1920s, and the last mine working the coalfield closed in 1976
It was the only inclined plane that used the counterweight system, They built 4 more, but added steam engines so that full boats could be moved up or down as necessary
The Hay inclined plane (you can google that, it’s still there) was the one that took loaded barges down to the river Severn for transfer to river boats
If anyone is into science fiction, this is a good related book to read:
https://www.amazon.com/Iron-Bridge-David-Morse/dp/0151002592
Written on the basis of time travel, where someone is sent back in time to here in 1773 (from our screwed up future) to try to prevent it all happening.
A really good book if only for the staggering amount of research on ironworking and production the author (an American) put into it.
Trump Batting 1.000, this should make some HaPpY😊
Trump Admin Undoes Another Obama Policy, Blocks MLB from Paying Cuba’s Baseball Federation
The Trump administration has reversed an Obama-era policy which stated Cuba’s baseball federation was separate from the country’s government, and has blocked Major League Baseball from signing players directly from the Communist nation to play in the United States.
The administration’s decision abrogates a deal MLB and Cuba’s baseball federation agreed to in December, the Wall Street Journal reports. The Obama administration’s policy had paved the way for the deal, which dictated that the baseball federation would get a fee for each player signed.
Can’t share the wealth in any manner with those evil socialists!
Now if cuba would change to capitalism and immediately institute a massive tax cut for the super wealthy, then well, maybe other policies towards Cuba could be changed as long as trickle down was part & parcel along with business mergers to reduce competition amongst their top corporations.
Exactly, that prevents collapse….pedal to the metal, Baby!!😝😮
At least that’s what those that have control push us to believe.
Just a matter of time before the “entitlements” are stripped away here in the USA for the middle class. Already they upper crust are whining Social Security and Medicare are putting a drain on the growth of the economy per Alan Greenspan!
Funny, when how the Financial Industry does not hesitate to use entitlements to bail itself out time and time again when, by it’s own intentional bad behavior, causes a crisis!
“Acting quickly, Greenspan met with top Fed officials and mapped a strategy for easing the cash crunch, using the Fed’s virtually unlimited reserves to bolster the troubled financial institutions. Before the market opened on Tuesday, October 20, 1987 Greenspan announced the Fed’s “readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial systems.” With the full force and power of the Fed backing these institutions, fear of a general collapse receded and the Dow-Jones industrial average rebounded with a rally of over 100 points on that day.”
https://biography.yourdictionary.com/alan-greenspan
Privatize the PROFITS, Socialize the losses! Rinse and repeat…circa 2008…ect, ect
Works for the “Capitalists”…but we’ll place the blame on welfare mothers!😛
Pedal to the metal is the number 1 credo of homo colossus and there will never be a collective effort to reduce pressure, except if it is forced by conditions out of our control. That previous sentence defines our species attitude and approach to anything and everything that can be exploited.
Right ON, Chrome Mags; not just a coincidence the number one marketing sales feature the car companies stress is SPEED and ACCELERATION!!
Mister and Mrs. DNA are programmed to burn out in a blaze….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pH7cvIiuRg8
Nature doesn’t care how the “job” gets done….as long as the mission gets “accomplished”
It is obvious that teen age welfare mothers on drugs is our major problem.
Fidel died of old age—-
He was young when the revolution started.
Duncan, I know only too well! Actually, took a read about Fidel and his exploits.
Unfortunately, can’t recall the title and vaguely remember the details.
What I do recall is the author point of view of the desperate state the commoner was held in Cuba and that includes destitution, malnutrition and even starvation.
From the website American Experience
Inequalities
There were, however, profound inequalities in Cuban society — between city and countryside and between whites and blacks. In the countryside, some Cubans lived in abysmal poverty. Sugar production was seasonal, and the macheteros — sugarcane cutters who only worked four months out of the year — were an army of unemployed, perpetually in debt and living on the margins of survival. Many poor peasants were seriously malnourished and hungry. Neither health care nor education reached those rural Cubans at the bottom of society. Illiteracy was widespread, and those lucky enough to attend school seldom made it past the first or second grades. Clusters of graveyards dotted the main highway along the foothills of the Sierra Maestra, marking the spots where people died waiting for transportation to the nearest hospitals and clinics in Santiago de Cuba.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/comandante-pre-castro-cuba/
No doubt, Castro and his regime made many errors, but had much success.
Remarkable that even under an embargo from the West and United States was able to improve the lot of the masses.
Let’s flip flop and see how well the United States would fair under an economic blockade!
Britain’s Second Empire
Can you give a little summary of what the video says?
I jumped around like crazy, so I can only say that it explains how postwar Britain switched from the old version of empire to one where they dominated international banking/finance by offshoring money to many of its former colonies. Peter Underwood, can you save us some research here?
The Spider’s Web: Britain’s Second Empire
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The Spider’s Web: Britain’s Second Empire is a documentary released in Mexico in 2017 which details the transformation of the UK as a colonial super power to a global financial power. It suggests that the City of London Corporation and its banks have done tremendous damage to the world economy since the 1960s and that up to half of all offshore wealth (globally) is hidden in one of many British offshore jurisdictions. With contributions from leading experts, academics, former insiders and campaigners for social justice, the film claims to highlight how in the world of international finance, corruption and secrecy have prevailed over regulation and transparency, and the UK is right at the heart of this.[1][2]
The film was co-produced by Tax Justice Network[3] founder John Christensen, and is based in part on the book, Treasure Islands, by expert on British offshore havens Nicholas Shaxson; an interview with Shaxson is one of its major elements. Christensen was an advisor to the Queen’s government of the island of Jersey for a number of years.[4]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spider%27s_Web:_Britain%27s_Second_Empire
Artleads, I have almost all my wealth parked in “offshore” locations. It is the result of saving half my income for 20 years, income on which I paid tax in full.
But if I leave it out in the open, the UK government will seize 40% of it when I die, leaving my children and grandchildren that much poorer. No way!
If the world wants to get rid of abusive tax shelters, let it begin by getting rid of abusive taxes.
There is an even better way of solving the problem: change the world so that there is nothing to purchase with all of this supposed wealth. If there are food supplies, it stays with those growing the food, because there won’t be enough to go around, and they need food or they will stop producing it. Basically, there will be nothing else either. Governments will collapse.
The promises, in terms of saved wealth, that we have been given are empty promises. People do not realize this.
DOING WITH LESS
Seeing doing with less as deferring gratification doesn’t seem to explain everything. In the visual arts, very broadly speaking, less is generally more. I think it was said first by Mies van der Rohe: Less is more.
https://search.aol.com/aol/search?s_it=webmail-hawaii1-basicaol&q=Mies%20van%20der%20Rhoe%20(sp):%20Less%20is%20more.
More can simply be junk that reduces effectiveness, and less can weed out the unnecessary and increase effectiveness. So doing with less can produce better, more economical form, while being pleasant and compelling to deal with. (If beauty and elegance didn’t serve some human purpose, there wouldn’t be so much of it in history.) While beauty can often require more, it seems that elegance, by definition, requires less.
e. e. cummings
“nothing which we are to perceive in this world equals
the power of your intense fragility: “
if Cummings was referring to how easily you as a being (sentient or not) can unravel, i would agree with that statement.
i like the lower case–
it is so cummings
agreed. it should read cummings. i should read cummings.
Artleads already provided a poignant example for all of us…
Baby dolphin dies after tourists yank it out of ocean for selfie
Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2016/02/18/baby-dolphin-dies-after-tourists-yank-it-out-of-ocean-for-selfies-5703179/?ito=article.mweb.share.top.facebook&fbclid=IwAR0R3E4CYlJRNujfsW4YgcFAd6JrPZxWrKtTp9xAJTYNFcoC_LhTG2VT6KE?ito=cbshare
‘The Franciscan, like other dolphins, cannot remain above water for long,’ they wrote on their website. ‘It has a very thick and greasy skin that provides warmth, so the weather quickly causes dehydration and death.’ A spokesperson for Peta added: ‘In their efforts to get a novelty “selfie”, these holidaymakers showed a naïve – and ultimately fatal – disregard for life by hauling this baby dolphin out of the sea, where he or she belonged. ‘One can only imagine the trauma suffered not only by this baby, who was passed around like a toy by marauding tourists, but also his or her grieving mother.
We, Humans, as Oscar Wilde once lamented, “Man always destroys what he loves.”
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iuLydEkhGuo
In this case, I agree with Fast Eddie, can’t be fast enough humans meet their own demise.
And yet if I were to storm that beach with a machine gun/flame thrower combination and exterminate the horde, I WOULD BE THE ONE TO GO TO PRISON!!
Tim, there’s a better way to punish them. Let them see what they have done. Let them live with the guilt of what they have done. Anything else is just pearls before swine.
No way. Tim, if you ever need a character witness, call me!😊
Wish I hadn’t posted it, since I know so little about him. Came across it by accident just after posting about less. If he’s saying how powerful fragility is, that seems to support the notion of “less” possibly being “more.” Our culture gives undue deference to more in any form, putting quantity over quality.
1986 — Ukraine, USSR: Chernobyl nuclear disaster occurs.
I think the global crisis is already here. When you consider the populations of countries living in war, or warlike conditions (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mexico, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen; 297M) and countries on the verge of huge crisis (Egypt, Gaza, Greece, Iran, Lebanon, Sudan, Turkey; 327M) there are 625M people living in very difficult conditions. This is a very large proportion of the world already living in crisis like conditions, I’ve omitted large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that are probably struggling as well. This does not paint a picture of long term global prosperity; quite the opposite, is demonstrate a world in decline.
In comparison, if you take the populations of countries heavy affected by WWII in 1939 (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, Turkey, UK) you have about 450M people, so fewer in criris in 1939 than there are now.
Fish scraps could power some cruise ships by 2021
The cruise industry is booming, thanks to its promise of spectacular views, exotic locales and floating luxury. But as the appetite for ocean travel rapidly grows, there’s been growing concern about its environmental impact.
Fish scraps might be part of the solution, according to a Norwegian cruise operator.
Hurtigruten, known for its trips through Norway’s fjords and to the Arctic, will power a fleet of ships partly through liquified biogas — which is produced as dead fish and other organic waste decompose, the company said in a press release.
https://q13fox.com/2018/11/20/fish-scraps-could-power-some-cruise-ships-by-2021/
This is very necessary and significant for human progress, because it’s not like those people going on cruises can just have a nice picnic instead.
How long will it take before those scraps are not sufficient, and then anything in the water that can be used, is, from seaweed to mammals?
This is just virtue signaling.
And here’s Wolf Richter with more on that fall in global trade:
““World trade volume… started turning down in November, and by February — according to the Merchandise World Trade Monitor, released today by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis — it was down 3.4% from the peak in October and down 1.1% from February a year earlier.
“The less volatile three-month moving average sank for the fourth month in a row, and is down 2.4% from the October peak and down about 1% from a year earlier. This kind of decline in world trade just hasn’t happened since the Global Financial Crisis.”
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/25/world-trade-falls-most-since-financial-crisis-hit-by-china-other-emerging-asia/
“In March, Japan industrial production dropped -0.9% mom, below expectation of 0.0% mom. For the whole of Q1, industrial production contracted -2.6% yoy. The overall contraction in industrial production in Q1 was the largest in nearly five years, since Q2 2014. The data suggested that Japanese economy could have suffered a mild recession…”
https://www.actionforex.com/live-comments/193068-japan-large-contraction-in-industrial-production-raises-recession-risk/
Make interest rates even more negative?
Yes, reward whoever try to maintain and own whatever will be worthless long before estimated lifespan.
If they get too negative, and there has been a vast store of cash accumulated by investors, then a sudden torrent of soon to be worthless (your savings are “worthless” if they are “accumulating” negative interest) money floods the market, looking to buy up tangibles. This sounds like the gateway to hyperinflation.
Tangibles like building are associated with maintainance costs, land is expensive and taxable, arts and stuff spekulation.
True, useful, tangibles are limited how much you can buy.
Meanwhile tech will make progress, health care (for those who can afford it).
We can fall a long way before all realise it.
“It has been a decade since the Federal Reserve and other central banks began cutting interest rates to zero — or even below — and injecting unprecedented amounts of cash into the global financial system via quantitative easing. And while global stocks are at or near record highs, central banks around the world are increasingly abandoning their hopes of normalizing policy with economic growth slowing. On top of that, public and private debt levels are higher than ever.
“Some central banks are prepared to take drastic measures. In February, the staff at the International Monetary Fund published a guide to make even more negative interest rates work. Meanwhile, proponents of “modern monetary theory” argue that governments should generate money and distribute it across the economy, until it reaches full employment.
“It’s clear that central bank growth models are broken and the fix isn’t more money printing. While saving our economy from a deeper crisis, central bank liquidity injections only delayed this inevitable reckoning.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-26/capitalism-is-broken-because-of-central-banks
“The collapse of the Swedish krona to its lowest level in more than a decade against the dollar on Thursday was fueled by a theme permeating financial markets: global central banks. Sweden’s Riskbank joined a chorus of central banks, including Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada in recent days, downgrading the likelihood of normalizing crisis-era monetary policies, amid mounting concerns about contracting international growth.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-a-flight-to-safety-amid-a-weakening-global-economy-could-complicate-central-bank-policy-2019-04-25
“Major exchange rates are stuck in their deepest slumber for years, prompting comparisons to the unnaturally tranquil period before the 2008…”
https://www.ft.com/content/aca28310-676b-11e9-9adc-98bf1d35a056
“The world’s largest market isn’t buying the feel-good narrative that investors have embraced this week with global stocks sitting on the cusp of setting a record high and the riskiest corporate bonds soaring like the world economy is back in synchronized growth mode… traders in the $5 trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market are flocking to the dollar, yen and Swiss franc… “haven” currencies [which] normally outperform when the outlook is worsening, not improving.
“More and more central banks are expressing concern about the global economic outlook.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-25/something-has-spooked-the-currency-markets
A person worries about Deutsche Bank in this context, if the merger plans seem to have gone away. It hasn’t been doing well to begin with; add a downturn and it will be in truly terrible condition.
The growth models miss the need for cheap-to-produce energy supply. They can’t be right without it.
Easy peasy
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-26/oil-tumbles-after-trump-says-he-called-opec-gas-prices-are-coming-down
Big inventory gains yesterday would seem to be enough to bring prices back down as well.
Cutting oil supplies doesn’t really work to raise prices.
I’m firmly Gen X at nearly 50 yrs old. My 1st memories are sitting in gas lines with my mother in a big green Pontiac while watching my Dad ride a bicycle to work during the oil embargo. I joined the Marine Corps in 1991 prior to the Gulf War knowing it was for oil and not the BS lies about incubator babies.
By 9/11 I know longer believed and certainly after 2008/2009 I’ve lost hope.
I understand probably better than most this is a finite world with 8 billion people. My question was rhetorical because with the current moves being made I believe we’re sucking buttermilk out of a straw.
Our problem is that we don’t really have solutions. This is not something that any politician can face up to.
“The executive of the modern state is but a committee for managing the common affairs of the whole bourgeoisie.”
I’m afraid you’re right. I hope everyone enjoys the last sips of that buttermilk. Eventually throwing debt at it is not going to work. The only solution is to resource grab with force.
I always thought collapse would be stair stepped and I believe it has been doing just that for about 40 years now. I’m of the belief at this point that things are about to pick up some speed.
Its been blatantly obvious who follow this stuff that we are the point where this whole Ponzi Scheme could go up in smoke around the world. People are starting to catch on such as with the Yellow Vest Movement in France.
Here in the US, the markets are no longer allowed to go down for too long. If that happens The Fed steps in and reverses that trend by juicing the markets. Little by little the pressure is building that shows how flawed our banking, monetary and financial systems are that started right around the time that the Federal Reserve was created. As Gail says, we are at a point in time where DEBT needs to continuously GROW or it all collapses. That’s why the US will never have a balanced budget because it’s not allowed with the monetary and banking system that we have in place.
Collapse is not an event but a process and eventually something will trigger it. I have 10 yrs on you so hopefully i’ll be long gone when this thing blows sky high and keep in mind that our problems are NOW 8-10 times worse than in 2008.
“I have 10 yrs on you so hopefully i’ll be long gone when this thing blows sky high”
Wouldnt it be great being 65+, in good health, and experiencing the collapse?
I think Fast Eddy is alive and well. He probably read the tea leaves and figured time is getting short and is knocking down his bucket list.
You’re right of course the doors have been closed and locked and we’re trapped.
“He probably read the tea leaves and figured time is getting short and is knocking down his bucket list”
Perhaps he is incarcerated?
I know that kept me from posting here on OFW for 16 months…
Cheers,
-GBV
That is quite a carrot to dangle, GBV. What did you do?!
Perhaps he is incarcerated?
Fast forward 20 years from now after the bottleneck
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4XGWXmxmaoE
So funny Exile on Main Street
No, Think I found him doing a NEW GIG…yep, that’s him all right…gollie…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=af6sOD5AjSs
Perfect….now that’s more like it! Go Eddie, GO…pedal to the metal…BAU
I committed a thoughtcrime and said something that polite society today finds vile. I’ll leave it at that.
Cheers,
-GBV
I think you are still allowed to think it.
I have a friend who is a big Trumper with blinders on so I don’t know why I discuss anything with him but…. he is touting this big oil find in Texas and New Mexico and saying there is so much oil in this country “God Bless America!” I told him about the economics of getting said oil out of the ground etc… but can anyone tell me what “discovery” he is talking about? And what is the argument against this being a panacea? I’m all for finding more oil but I want it to be truth based. Just like the economy doing so well but we still have added 2 trillion to the debt load under Trump! It doesn’t add up…
The Permian Basin is in Texas and New Mexico. I suppose that could be what he is talking about.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2019/04/permian-basin-eia-estimates-april-2019.png
The Permian Basin is producing a lot of oil and gas.
Yep, it is all about the Permian.
We shall see—-
https://i.imgur.com/Sr7nePm.jpg
First of all I am not yelling about politicians; just setting the stage… Team players republican will only see things through their party paradigm. Democrats- liberals see wind mills and solar panels solving our problems. Republicans see oil discoveries as far as the eye can see and some even see abiotic oil. it’s just how it is in many countries…easier to compartmentalize I guess. The Debt load was a big problem with a lot of my republican friends when Obama was in office..now it is not and the economy is doing great and problems have all been solved and the reverse is true with democrats. But I am always open to new discoveries of oil and possibly new discoveries of energy…I am just skeptical and going to tell it like it is…
Michael Lynch has examined oil reserves and resources and he concludes we have centuries worth of the stuff at current extraction rates—as long as we can avoid the mother of all economic collapses that sweeps away our capability to keep pumping the stuff. Of course, he could be wrong–who am I to be the judge?–but he seems to know what he’s talking about. Having said that, there’s a lot in this 26-minute video that should calm the fears of anyone who is having nightmares about all the oil wells running dry in our lifetime.
Indeed, it could be argued that the Bushian, Obamian and Trumpian game plan calls for limiting current production by knocking out the competition such as Iraq, Libya, Iran and Venezuela in order to keep the price of the black stuff high enough to make it worthwhile for Western oil companies to produce it, and particularly to produce it from US wells, because the competition to produce and sell oil is currently close to being a zero sum game.
https://youtu.be/I23uAdBwR6Q
If we can keep prices high enough, there is indeed plenty of oil. The problem is keeping prices high enough.
money in terms of value is underpinned by (mainly oil) energy
so oil exploration/production must underpin itself. (through its own surpluses)
Money per se is irrelevant. If there isn’t enough surplus, then there can be no oil production.
Poor Bill McKibben. Feel so sorry for this fella. So lost about the real situation we are facing regarding CC. Now, this comes from a former 350.org activist. His latest interview excerpt from “The Nation”
BM: The answer to that is really interesting, I think. Yes there’s money to be made in the next energy future. People are going to get rich putting up solar panels. But there’s not Exxon-scale money to be made. If you think about it for a minute, you’ll realize why: Once you get the solar panels up on the roof, the energy comes for free. The sun rises every morning. From Exxon’s point of view, that’s the stupidest business model you could imagine. They’ve spent 100 years charging people more every month for what they get.
So they’ve tried everything they can to beat back the rise of renewable energy and the utilities. Eventually they’re going to lose. The price of wind and sun just keeps dropping and dropping. It’s now the cheapest way in the world to generate an electron. And that’s eroding the fossil-fuel company’s power slowly. “Slowly,” however, is a problem—because we need it now to go quickly. Fifty years from now we’re going to run the world on sun and wind. The question is, is it going to be a completely broken world that we’re running on sun and wind, or will we have made the transition in time to avert the absolute-worst-possible outcomes? We’re already going to be in some trouble. There’s no stopping global warming. That’s not one of the options on the menu. But there may be still some opportunity to slow it down.
Too bad he hasn’t been a reader here and faced the reality of the true energy expenditure of wind and solar. At this stage, why bring it to his attention. It might be too much for the man to realize he wasted 30 years of his life devoted to this cause. Oh well, the tragedy of existence!
Another struggling airline, this time Korean.(Asiana Airlines)
In the article it mentions high fuel costs as the reason so many airlines are struggling.
https://simpleflying.com/asiana-airlines-financial-support/
I can believe high fuel prices will affect the many marginal airlines.
Also, Asiana owns few of its own planes, leasing most of it. Lease price is also affected by the oil price. It didn’t help that Asiana’s owner ran the company like his plaything.
Increasing the oil production has got its side effects:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-oil-quality/russian-oil-flow-contamination-roils-europes-refiners-idUSKCN1S01TU
If it is not one thing that goes wrong, it is another.
There was an article not long ago called Tainted US shale oil is being turned away by Asian buyers.
Basically, now we are trying to put such a range of stuff through pipelines that pollution gets to be a problem.
We are now scrapping the bottom of the barrel and coming up with lots of crud with our oil.
in other words, lots of crud with our crude…
True.
I wonder if the oil age will end because the crud can’t be refined.
LOL!
“Beneath the electioneering bubble of sound bites and choreographed photo opportunities lies an economic governance nightmare… For 72 hours from 26 March 2019, South Africa stood at the edge of economic collapse as Eskom ran out of money and could not meet its liabilities and obligations. A scramble to raise money ensued as government cannot allow an economic collapse by Eskom default.”
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-04-25-72-hours-in-late-march-when-eskom-pushed-south-africa-to-the-edge-of-financial-collapse/
“It would not be an overstatement to say that both Erdoğan and Turkey are at a critical crossroads.”
https://ahvalnews.com/erdogan/dangerous-vortex-turkey
“Investors pummeled Argentina’s debt market on Wednesday as a looming presidential election stoked concern the country is heading for its third default in less than two decades. Five-year credit default swaps were quoted at 1,157 basis points, a 17 percent increase in a day…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-24/argentine-debt-market-pummeled-as-election-stokes-default-fears
“Were [Brent] oil to increase to $100 [per barrel] by Q4 2019, simulations suggest the level of global GDP would fall 0.6% below baseline by end of 2020, and inflation would rise 1.5% above it by Q1 2020,” they said… “A spike in oil prices would be “particularly damaging for already-fragile, oil importing emerging markets,” such as the Philippines, Argentina, Turkey and Indonesia [and you could add South Africa to that].””
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-100-a-barrel-oil-would-do-to-the-global-economy-2019-04-24
I found this chart, also by Oxford Economics, probably relating to the same report, on The Daily Shot today.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2019/04/world-net-loser-with-higher-oil-prices-oxford-economics.png
It indicates that while the world GDP will fall 0.6% relative to baseline, different countries would be affected very differently. Oil exporters would fare well; oil importers would fare poorly. The chart doesn’t include small countries, like Greece. I expect it would be in the “Fare poorly” category.
“South Korea’s economy unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter, marking its worst performance since the global financial crisis, as government spending failed to keep up the previous quarter’s strong pace and as companies slashed investment.
“The shock contraction reinforced financial market views that the central bank is likely to make a U-turn on policy, shifting to an easing stance and possibly cutting interest rates to counter declining business confidence and growing external risks…
“None of the economists surveyed in a Reuters poll had expected growth to contract. The median forecast was for a rise of 0.3 percent.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/south-korea-economy-shrinks-in-q1-worst-since-global-financial-crisis.html
“The Bank of Japan told investors for the first time on Thursday it will keep interest rates at super-low levels for at least one more year, seeking to dispel uncertainty over its commitment to ultra-loose policies as the economy comes under fresh pressure… The move puts the BOJ in line with the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which have been forced to pause efforts to scale back crisis-mode policies due to heightening uncertainty over the global economic outlook.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-japan-economy-boj/boj-to-paint-bleak-inflation-outlook-keep-policy-steady-idUKKCN1S02XS
“Investor faith in Chinese dollar bonds backed by banks is about to be tested after a default by one of the country’s best known private conglomerates. China Minsheng Investment Group Corp. said last week cross-default clauses have been triggered on dollar bonds worth $800 million. These include $300 million of debt that carries a standby letter of credit from China Construction Bank Corp. — effectively a pledge to repay if the borrower can’t.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-24/untested-china-bond-structure-sparks-market-angst-after-default
We will see how this works out. Will the Letter of Credit have any real value?
I wonder how much of this is related to ups and downs of Korean imports of oil from Iran. The April 15 article is called, “Why South Korea Just Ramped Up Iranian Oil Imports.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Why-South-Korea-Just-Ramped-Up-Iranian-Oil-Imports.html
Apparently oil imports were down following the imposition of sanctions in November, and started ramping up in March. The lower oil imports could be adversely affecting the economy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-24/us-gave-rogue-general-haftar-green-light-attack-tripoli
European officials as well as UN-backed leadership in Tripoli have both confirmed and angrily denounced President Trump’s recent sharp reversal of longstanding US policy which recognized only the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) as the legitimate authority over Libya, with Fayez al-Sarraj as president. The UN, UK and others have long backed Sarraj, while the UAE, Egypt, and France have been vocal supporters of Haftar.
Late last week the White House had shocked European allies in announcing that President Trump had spoken by phone to offer support to Benghazi based commander Kalifa Haftar, at a moment his Libyan National Army (LNA) lays siege to the capital.
The White House statement at the time said Trump “recognized Field Marshal Haftar’s significant role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya’s oil resources, and the two discussed a shared vision for Libya’s transition to a stable, democratic political system.”
A prior personal call to Haftar by US National Security Adviser John Bolton had also left Haftar with the impression that he’d had a “green light” for his ongoing offensive to secure the capital, which began April 4, and has involved shelling and air power used over civilian areas.
I wonder what the plan is with this and the sudden announcement for suspending Iranian oil import sanction waivers.
People should not be surprised. Trump does whatever he wants. Who knows what he’s thinking. It’s a mystery wrapped in a narcissistic drive for world domination.
Perhaps Trump and Bolton are trying to clean up what they see as Obama and Clinton’s mess. Or perhaps not. this is one of a million and one things I don’t feel qualified to hold an opinion on.
It’s interesting that the UK and France are on opposite sides again and the US is siding with the French, just like old times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajNsyZ-Ulzg
Is it weird that I’m hot for a woman 2.8x my age.
OT but nevertheless your desire derives from the Oedipus complex, it is the need to have your mother back in your life.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=217BXKPgEpKYsAfY8aX4Bw&q=oedipus+complex+theory&oq=Eidepus+complex&gs_l=psy-ab.1.2.0i13l10.2964.2964..7346…0.0..0.108.195.1j1……0….2j1..gws-wiz…..0.gQJvUakN50s
Indeed, but what works for the President of France…… 🙂
From what we’ve seen the whole Trump Presidency thus far has been undoing all what was done by President Obama🤔. And that’s….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LLoO-L0ZsT4
Tim. perhaps red jelly beans Trump should add to his desk!🤣
Some of us might add a happy smiley face.
No need to point out who some is Gail, and that’s the truth!😃
Got to love “Democracy”, i t puts on a good show!
For our UK viewers…..some here across the pond😃
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oWmK9rRW-d4
At least we feel we have a voice…. empowered….
How much is the deficit now with the Conservatives in charge?
Deficit = Added debt
Added debt is what keeps us away from collapse.
That’s good…pull the string ….
Never mind WHAT we use the debt for or why it has increased as it has!
Can’t think too deep about it…let those in power do it for us, after all they know better.
Who can outdo?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XQLS0UiLOgA
Spaceforce USA…bringing unintelligent life to outer space!
Thanks for the nostalgia. Laugh-In was one of the first shows we saw on our new color telly and Mireille Mathieu is even older than I am, although she hasn’t aged too badly and she retains the mushroom hair and the flair for voluminous dresses.
https://youtu.be/QeuWvG3k2bI
I enjoyed that stroll on along the English beach with Chris Gosling. The video is from 2008. I’m wondering what he’s up to these days, so I’m going to check him out on Google.
Obama made a mess but Bolton is not helping matters. Neocons/Warmongers have too much power. Subsidiarity is the way to go forward.
People should not be surprised. Congress does whatever it wants. Who knows what each individual member is thinking. It is a mystery wrapped in a drive for lining their pockets with money.
Actually, the drive is for control of more energy resources. Money is simply an intermediary to this end.
that has been the mantra of every empire as it has thrust outwards in conquest
U.S. runs largest monthly budget deficit on record in February 2019 – Deficit for first five months of FY 2019 hits $544.2 billion, up 40% from FY 2018
https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/04/u-s-runs-largest-monthly-budget-deficit-on-record-in-february-2019-deficit-for-first-five-months-of-fy-2019-hits-544-2-billion-up-40-from-fy-2018.html
Argentina’s embattled president Mauricio Macri is a Peronista now.
With elections six months away and an economy in the gutter, Macri is bringing in Peron-style policies to win over voters who have faced four years of declining fortunes under his presidency. The economy looks a lot like it did in 1989 and again in 2001, both terrible years for Argentine presidents and Argentina bondholders. Macri is pulling out all the stops to make sure his presidency, and his economy, does not suffer the same terrible fate.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/04/22/argentina-president-macri-becomes-a-peronista-echos-of-raul-alfonsin/#2eeecc0c51b9
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KD_1Z8iUDho
Seems we are grasping at straws
“Fierce fighting intensified in the Libyan capital, Tripoli, leading to the death of more than 254 people and the injury of 1,228 others, but the cost of these battles may trespass Libya borders, causing serious consequences for neighbouring Tunisia.
“Tunisia, which shares a 500 kilometre border with Libya, is wary of the consequences of a second-week of fighting after the retired General Khalifa Haftar launched a military operation on 4 April to take control of the city.”
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20190423-escalating-fighting-in-libya-capital-threatens-tunisia/
“Protesters returned to Algeria’s streets after jubilation over ailing President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s vow not to seek re-election gave way to fears of a plot to prolong his two-decade rule.
“The move came after Algeria’s army chief, Lieutenant General Gaid Salah, announced last week that members of the ruling elite in the major oil and natural gas-producing country, would be prosecuted for corruption.”
https://www.herald.co.zw/algeria-arrests-5-billionaires-as-part-of-anti-corruption-drive-2/
wait till it spills over the other way, into Egypt
“Debt ratios of euro-area governments may have fallen in 2018 from a year earlier, but they’re still substantially higher than before the 2008 financial crisis, according to data published Tuesday.
“Eleven euro-zone countries had debt ratios higher than 60 percent of GDP — the European Union ceiling — with the highest registered in Greece, Italy and Portugal.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-23/eleven-euro-nations-have-a-debt-ratio-above-60-of-gdp-chart?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google
“Italy’s government approved an economic growth plan in the early hours of Wednesday after a bad-tempered cabinet meeting that exposed divisions in the ruling coalition and fuelled speculation of a government collapse.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-politics/italian-cabinet-infighting-overshadows-growth-plan-idUKKCN1S00KU
“Confidence in France’s manufacturing sector dropped unexpectedly to its lowest level in nearly four years as business leaders’ assessment of their own production slumped.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-24/french-factory-confidence-falls-to-lowest-in-almost-four-years
If manufacturing costs are raised because of higher carbon taxes, it is more or less a “no brainer” that France will fare worse in the world marketplace. So the decline in business prospects should not be a surprise to anyone.
Although Hansen is a proponent of using technology to bring down emissions, a carbon tax, he said, “is the underlying policy required. People need energy, we need to make the price of fossil fuels include their cost to society.
Hosted by Al Jazeera, the 12-minute debate highlights a growing fault line between two theories of climate action. Among progressives and environmental justice advocates, the Green New Deal represents a last-ditch, economy-wide overhaul. Hansen, on the other hand, seems to argue for a more economically incremental approach that is centered on a carbon tax.
That tension came to a head when Hansen appeared visibly aggravated by the progressive proposal and Prakash, realizing that one of the most prominent climate scientists in the world was scoffing at her organization’s central focus, could only laugh in disbelief.
Dr. Hansen stated the New Green Deal is “nonsense”.
Seems you are correct, Gail, there is no solution…😋
Perhaps there is no solution.
Gail, I agree. We do not have a problem, which can be solved; we are trapped in a predicament, which can only be lived through. If we are very, very lucky, which I cannot bring myself to believe.
the Italians, much like everyone else, remain convinced that if they spend enough money their prosperity will return and the nation will prosper again
this is the advice they give themselves, because they cannot accept the alternative
We need a happy-ever-after fairly tale.
“The amount of assets held in exchange-traded bond funds has pushed past $1tn, capping a near fivefold increase since the financial crisis, and underscoring a radical reshaping of the world’s debt markets.”
https://www.ft.com/content/87e8bd60-6481-11e9-9adc-98bf1d35a056
“If the next crisis is anything like the last it could compel policy makers to consider some pretty unorthodox monetary interventions. One of those has been around for almost a century, even if it’s rarely been tried: money that “rusts”. The idea traces to an unorthodox thinker named Silvio Gesell… Gesell proposed that money be designed to steadily depreciate. He proposed that the rate of decline be fixed at 5 percent a year, though the rate could vary.”
https://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/emergency-money-is-a-fringe-concept-that-may-gain-traction-as-recession-looms-1.852533
“In recent decades, governments from across the world have rarely run budget surpluses, frequently increasing spending to pay for things that were deemed to be essential. However, they have always claimed that they intended to cut the deficit eventually. Under MMT that could be about to change – and if it does, the US economy will be entering uncharted territory.”
https://www.worldfinance.com/markets/modern-monetary-theory-continues-to-gain-traction
“A final approach would be so-called helicopter money: The Fed would distribute money directly to citizens, in the hope that they would spend it. This is akin to fiscal stimulus, but financed by new money creation rather than by federal spending. It’s a radical approach that would probably require legal changes, but some believe it could be powerful. Others worry it could end up unleashing a spiral of inflation.”
https://gulfnews.com/business/analysis/weapons-needed-to-fight-the-next-recession-war-1.63501835
Interesting that this article seems to have no author, other than “Bloomberg.”
Summary says:
I think most of us believe this.
As I understand it, it was the central banks’ willingness to work in concert in the previous crisis that was pivotal in averting calamity. In addition to the various forms of stimulus already being somewhat played out, we live in a very different era geo-politically with restless populaces and increasingly protectionist governments.
“Others worry it could unleash a spiral of inflation.”
That is exactly what it would do, and if the amount was sizable enough it would lead to hyperinflation. It has been my opinion for about 7 years, that is how the oil age ends, because that will be the last desperate CB strategic option available.
Or it could look like the collapse of ancient Babylon, where the price of everything, including slaves, went to zero.
Hyperinflation can only take place if there is an alternative currency circulating within the economic system. In Venezuela there is hyperinflation in the bolivar, but serious contra deflation in the US dollar. You can buy pretty much anything in VZ with a dollar as we did when we went to Bellarus in 1994. ( A box of voda for $1).
Since the USA has control of the US dollar as a global reserve currency, there is no alternative currency and therefore hyperinflation cannot occur however much money they print. The effect would be for prices to rise but wages would rise equally. My friend Gerry Brady at: http://boomfinanceandeconomics.com/#/ has the answers to all this and is worth following as an alternative take on the solutions to GFC2
A barrel of oil costs exactly the same today as it did twenty years ago, priced in gold or silver (lawful money). Debt levels have exploded, which will prove lethal.
This is an old idea. It was pioneered by Francis Townsend during the Great Depression, and a couple of states actually tried it. It was, of course, a disaster. The appetite of a parasite only grows with the feeding.
FDR took a different, equally disastrous path: devaluation, debt, and throwing money on unneeded infrastructure. That’s why we talk of a “great depression”, and not “the recession of 1929/1930”
Hence the modern theory that debt automatically creates the growth needed to repay it, a theory that all history refutes, from the reforms of Diocletian to the Louisiana project of John Law. But as long as some of that new money ends up in the pockets of the economists, the theory will persist.
Interesting: whereas in reading about the 19th century -novels, letters, biographies, etc – one always sees references to ‘the 5 per cents’, which were the solid investment of the middle and upper classes.
From a good return of 5% to diminishing by 5%: Tim Morgan is right – the end of Capitalism.
capitalism is the physical manifestation of surplus energy
300 years ago there was little surplus energy, so a tiny minority held what surplus there was, while the rest laboured to support them (serfdom)
then for the last 100 years (at most) there was enough surplus energy to provide capital to almost everyone. (fossil fuels)
now surplus energy is fading away, and what capital there is, is drifting back into the hands of a privileged minority again
The progression of it is very clearly defined, and inevitable.
Our only consolation, Norman, is that wealth truly does send you mad.
Although we paupers might get to the asylum first…… day release is working quite well for me at the moment.
Bezos sending his photos of his privates by email is an illustration. For you or I to do something like that would be foolish, but for a multibillionaire it’s INSANE.
What I’m referring to regarding the possible eventuation of hyper inflation is when the usd, the reserve currency hyper inflates. What good will it do Venezuela or any other country if that happens? None.
A person wonders what could go wrong.
I’m sure when the populace has been completely asset stripped and are hopelessly enslaved with debt that never did much to improve their lives to begin with everything will be fine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Qy5UmyIcyE
This will likely be the new normal and it will never end
Nah, It’ll be ok. Things are so awesome.
America’s budget deficits are often described by economists as a problem. In the markets right now, they look more like a solution.
Even investors who worry about President Donald Trump’s loose fiscal policy are finding other things that worry them more. From China’s credit bulge to the European slowdown, warning signs are flashing globally. At home, the economy’s expansion is about to set records for longevity –- a reminder that it won’t last forever.
When that kind of foreboding takes hold, it translates into demand for safe assets. And Trump is supplying them — at a pace of about $1 trillion a year, matching the projected shortfalls in the U.S. budget.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/americas-big-deficits-are-solving-a-big-problem-for-markets/ar-BBWf5dB?li=BBnbfcN
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=youtube+beastie+boys+you+have+to+fight+with+danny+mcbride%2c+will+ferrell&view=detail&mid=4A93583C85ED231F92F04A93583C85ED231F92F0&FORM=VIRE
I will be leaving for Syria in a week. Should be interesting to say the least.
Stay safe!
Thanks, Gail.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trumps-iran-policy-could-cost-americans-billions-at-the-gas-pump/ar-BBWdH8W?li=BBnbfcN
President Donald Trump’s goal of bringing Iran to its knees threatens to exact a heavy toll on American drivers this summer, fuel analysts warn.
The White House surprised the oil market on Monday, announcing new measures aimed at driving Iran’s crude exports to zero in just over a week. The sudden policy shift comes on the heels of nine straight weeks of rising U.S. gasoline prices and at the outset of the annual uptick in gasoline demand.
The national average for regular gasoline has finally paused at $2.84 a gallon, following the roughly two-month rally, according to fuel price technology firm GasBuddy. While prices continued to bubble higher in most states last week, the pace of has finally slowed.
But the Trump administration’s shock decision to end all sanctions waivers for Iran’s oil buyers may cause another round of gas price increases, creating a “more painful summer at the pump,” said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy.
Holy frack that video is literally the coolest thing ever! Srsly, thanks for sharing.
Unfortunately, it’s not real:
http://www.hoaxorfact.com/pranks/video-of-chimp-with-ak-47-firing-at-soldiers-facts.html
FIGHT LIKE APES !!!
Am I the only one to find the ape to be the most dignified and purposeful individual in that clip?
Offers an insight into the roots of the gang problem in London and elsewhere these days too – and I don’t mean the furry one’s behaviour……
Am I the only one who thinks you’re a postmodernist reactionary vampire who derives their life force from every kind of bigotry, as long as it doesn’t affect them personally?
Nice try, but when you are a little older you will understand that while some people are indeed bigots, others have lived, observed, reflected and learned something of human nature from having a wide acquaintance with people of every race and religion.
Western Europe has imported many thousands of men just like those African ‘soldiers’, and it is has not gone at all well -not for them, and not for us. Even ‘The Guardian’ admits this,
Try travel and observation yourself and you might find your eyes opened.
Wide reading of real history is quite useful too, and the English language is particularly rich in such scholarship: use it, or go to your grave as ignorant as you are now. Which, of course, you might well be content with.
Well spoken Xabier, thank you and I couldn’t agree more!
It is human nature to practice self-serving cognitive dissonance. I myself prefer to be inhuman. Thus, the presence of much of the current population (including immigrants) is fatally unsustainable, even though almost all of them are just average innocent people trying to get by in life.
If people like you truly recognised this reality, they would display some understanding and compassion towards all the ad hoc categories of sub_humans they love to hate.
Jup, you may prefer to be inhuman, but this doesn’t alter the fact that you are human—or at least close—so you practice the same self-serving cognitive dissonance as the rest of us. Moreover, still being wet behind the ears, you are shockingly unaware that you are doing this. Older and wiser folks such as Xabier do it too, but they don’t do it as much because they are usually more self aware and can catch themselves before they go too far.
If people like you truly recognised this reality, you would display some understanding and compassion towards all the ad hoc categories of sub_humans you love to hate, such as Trump supporters, postmodernist reactionary vampires, bigots, Brexiteers, Rolf Harris fans, etc.
Beware, with so many felonies now on the books, average people trying to get by are not as innocent as all that. Probably all that self-serving cognitive dissonance that you claim is part of human nature also plays a role.
https://youtu.be/CUHl7brEFOU
One group of OFW commenters believe in looking at every issue they encounter from a broader historical and material context. They reject the notion that culture, ideology, innovation and religion in and of themselves are the primary forces behind civilisation.
Another group performs the same sort of reasoning, but only relative to the things they personally like or dislike. In fact they aren’t even interested in collapse per se. Most of their posts are about a) how political or cultural issues they like are holding back collapse b) how those they dislike are making it worse or accelerating it or amount to useless diversions.
Which group is suffering from cognitive dissonance?
Which group is suffering from cognitive dissonance?
Both of “em, obviously.
It is difficult for a person to realize that they are suffering from cognitive dissonance.
Their cognitive dissonance tends to get in the way,
Political discourse seems to me to be within three categories nowadays. Or rather, what the main ideology of the politics the person, or the party, mainly communicates.
1. Growth (its the economy stupid, and in the end, growth at any and all costs, no matter how great)
or
2. Renewable energy (building an utopian future with renewables, de-growth, welfare and all that)
or
3. Fringe disadvantage avoidance (taking one side of 1 or 2 and making a big deal out of that, education, welfare, pensions, immigrants etc etc)
We of course here in OFW happen to know, that all politics is redundant, as the only question seems to be, how long the central banks can hold of the coming global crash of our industrial civilization. Is it one more year of money printing in the trillions. Or is it ten more years of money printing in the hundreds of trillions, before everything comes crashing down
BUT as an interesting thought experiment, what if someone had a brain (unlikely) and rewrite the political idology of our times.. what would in that unlikely case be the political idology of our times?
Because we know that we are without hope.. nothing can save an predicament.. but what if.. what if..
Technology is some years from discovering bacteria that can inhale CO2 and exhale fuel, like hydrogen. Nanotechnology is some years from discovering how to build structures and materials without robbing earth of its mineral resources. AI is some years from developing some very bright ways of limiting human populations (thinking of japanese robots here). Fusion power is as always some twenty years in to the future.
What if. What if.. everything else is a no go, a red light, an apocalypse, the end.. except one thing.. and only one thing, has an theoretical slim, slim, chance of saving everything and everybody.. to keep BAU going as long as possible, to keep everything growing as long as possible, to keep technology developing as long as possible.. because.. is it.. possible.. to have one, two, or eventually all of the above mentioned miracle technologies? And more. Could it be, that the only thing that can prevent human extinction seems to be an miracle.. BUT what if those miracles were possible.. if we just could get.. one.. more.. year.. one.. more.. month.. one.. more.. day
Just wondering why none of the political ideologs of all the political parties havent used the best argument to be used.. this political argument would be the truth, oddly enough -> keep the economy growing, keep BAU intact, keep pumping trillions in to the economy by central banks.. even though the climate could change, even though we poison a planet, even though we cause mass extinctions.. because THAT its the only slim chance we have of avoiding extinction.. to keep the economy growing at any and all costs.. THAT is the only way of avoiding what is otherwise fast approaching
Unfortunately, I am afraid you are right. There is not really a good story to tell.
Every mainstream ideology already premissed on keeping BAU going (in some form) indefinitely. It is so organically embedded within our thinkng that no one thinks to say it out loud.
Also, all miracles are illusions. FFs and TCP/IP aren’t miracles to those who understand how they work and don’t work. Technology won’t save us because it can’t create the things that make it useful.
The only solution is conservation, whether voluntarily or “the other way”.
And conservation depends on many factors hard to evaluate, but most definitely on the sophisticated visual/spatial acumen that is so virulently resisted by those who lack it. Those who can’t imagine how people outside their frame of reference economise and make do (and the visual subtleties or complexities involved in that) simply can’t believe that an advanced degree of conservation is possible. It doesn’t happen in their world (which is the dominant world) so it must not be able to happen anywhere else.
Actually, conservation is not very helpful either.
One big issue is Jevons’ Paradox. A person tends to spend what he or she can afford. If the person conserves in one area, it will generally reduce his outlay in that area. But that will leave more funds to spend on other things. All of the other things take energy as well, so (on a net basis), not very much happens.
Another issue is that conservation really results in reduced costs (greater efficiency, in other words), it tends to increase disposable income again. For example, if insulation added to a house allows heating cost to be lower in the future, it will allow income to be spent on other purchases, pretty much all of which will require energy for making.
If a person thinks of conservation as including recycling, here we are generally talking about subsidizing the use of fossil fuels to (supposedly) recycle materials. It is not at all clear that this results in any reduction in the amount of fossil fuels used to produce the same amount of usable resources. We are increasingly dealing with a situation where no-one wants our recycling. For example, “India Announces It’s Also Banning Plastic Scrap Imports.” According to the article, China started the trend, but now India and Malaysia are following suit.
If conservation makes a family feel like it can afford more children, conservation could even lead to higher population.
Sigh! I recycle nothing. If it isn’t compostable, it goes into construction. And the construction I propose would increase a version of construction 100 fold.
What is called ‘re-cycling- here in the UK is mostly just a fraud; so much is either burned, buried or shipped abroad to be dumped on very poor and unfortunate people who have no say in the matter.
I was sickened reading about the poisoning of the re-cycling workers in Africa the other day, the contamination also leeching into their food. What arrogance on our part to do this to them!
I’d like to say goodbye to all our electronic junk forever. Which perhaps may happen quite soon I suppose, but not because we have become any wiser or kinder of course…..
@Gail, you’re talking about budgeting, not conservation. If someone saves $1000 by not spending it on gourmet icecream, so that they can spend it on porterhouse steaks instead, they do not intend to conserve money.
True conservation isn’t popular precisely because it involves having less for oneself, and not just making “green” lifestyle choices that most other people can’t even afford.
It’s called “deferring gratification” which is sadly lacking in our consumerist society. But us ‘oldies’ remember the 1940s & 50s when politeness and respect prevailed.
Politics today is merely the stale re-articulation of ideas and slogans which arose in the late 18th and early 19th century, nothing more.
In some places, of course, ideas dating from the 7th century. …..
God help us!
I suppose there is some merit in this, as it prevents the mass of the people from seeing the harsh truth of our situation.
And keeps them in a mental straight jacket of undigested ideas. And if there WERE solutions to anything, they couldn’t see it.
Wise words,as ever, Artleads. But what can we do, we are human and flawed……
Reminds me of the Sufi saying: ‘Man spends his life building a cage around himself’: it needs a Lion to break it open’.
The politicians and media run around us, yelling in our faces, wrapping our minds in the mesh of their redundant slogans.
I just quoted Norm’s comment on returning serfdom to a Caribbean group. We’ll see what they make of it. 😉 The countries there are incredibly unaware.
The day humans stopped being hunter gatherers was the day we set in motion an unstoppable trajectory. Everything that has happened in more recent centuries was a product of that shift. Once having tasted ‘Progress’, we were hooked. We tasted something that felt good. Nothing we do now can undo that evolutionary trajectory. Humans will not willingly choose to revert to eco-lifestyles requiring hardship and labour, minus all our IT devices and mobility and so forth. There’s no-one in politics will will even entertain such a platform, for it would instantly spell the end of their career. The majority of voters will quietly and confidently wait for technology to step in and fix whatever problems we seem to be confronted by. In that, confidence reigns supreme. We will retreat only under enforcement.
For some reason I remembered this guy today, from like 8 years ago. Found this vid, (strong language)
seems stable and a certain Trump voter
one thought
why doesn’t he take a swing at his own camera?
cheaper than the gym though
It seems to me that the rising storm clouds of costly energy sourcing/ unaffordability have created an unprecedented high stakes situation in addition to 1.) the lack of rule of law and 2.) the existence by design, of central banking/fiat currency systems. There is a component of adversarial game theory, a sort of Nash equilibrium that we are locked into right now. My basic understanding of this psychologic equilibrium according to Nash is that no one party is really going to alter his behavior as long as he perceives that the other(s) are not going to alter theirs. A Mexican standoff if you will. The event that distracts one of the parties will be enough, even though not in any way connected to the actual problem causing the standoff, to distract one party long enough so that another party will suddenly capitalize on the break of attention by the distracted party to strike.
This is more applicable it seems to the military saber-rattling going on especially between Russia and the US/UK. But both countries realize if they actually go to war, well, that would be a really bad situation, so they will continue to play this game, which affords other opportunists a chance to quietly benefit.
Another very good reason for making sure the rebellion stays non-violent is that the Corporate / Mainstream Media will not hesitate __ for even a second __ to label any and all violent protesters as terrorists. If the General Population starts to believe that, then it’s over.
Interesting! Along the saber rattling lines, there is an interesting article this morning called, What Oil Shortage? Just a Case of Supply Being Redistributed
Saudi Arabia is primed to pick up the slack in the oil markets with the impending loss of Iranian crude as the Trump Administration ratchets up the pressure on Tehran.
The article makes the assertion that this is a political play, to help Saudi Arabia (an ally), so that it can pump more oil, and the total supply stay low enough to keep prices up. At the same time the biggest buyer is China; this play would theoretically hurt China. The article says,
The article concludes:
A different article points out that the biggest importer of Iranian oil is China, and China won’t necessarily go along with the sanctions. As Iran’s top oil buyer, China holds key to price impact of tighter US sanctions. China’s oil imports from Iran were 556,000 b/d in the first quarter of 2019. If it doesn’t comply, quite a bit of the effect is lost.
It is also applicable to the standing of path dependency and legacy structure of global fin system, as the US can nowadays easily loose dozen color revolution-interventions or even hot wars in a row and nothing happens. However, should their ‘alt oil’ bonanza suddenly collapse in output that would be completely another story in the eyes of the ‘money world’ .. and again this will be postponed by ever higher debt leverage for as long as possible perhaps into mid/late 2020/30s..
OFW doomsters should take time out to catch up on the BBC radio prog:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0004dzb
It’s a 15 min daily excerpt reading from this book:
https://www.amazon.com/Losing-Earth-History-Nathaniel-Rich/dp/0374191336
really in depth stuff about the political stalemate over GW
The blurb on the front says, “Nathaniel Rich’s account of how the course of climate change could have been halted in the 1980s and why it wasn’t.”
I can’t image how the course of climate change could have been halted by anything we humans could do, short of wiping ourselves out, and that wouldn’t happen. Starting down a course that cannot work would seem to be a huge problem, apart from any other issue. Of course there will be a political stalemate; there is nothing we can do, no matter how pressing an issue it may seem to be.
I agree
but the book reading on air makes wonderful insightful listening—so clear and lucid
to anyone interested–come Friday you can listen to it in a continuous programme
it really is very good
“I can’t image how the course of climate change could have been halted by anything we humans could do, short of wiping ourselves out”
Or wiping out industrial society and lowering population to an apt level. It’s not probable but certainly possible. All things are predetermined but our own actions are worth no less for that.
The population will certainly reach a more “apt” level, as it always has throughout history. Either through war, famine, glowball worming or epidemics, your dreams will come true!
Unless Greta saves us from our sins!
From the Libtardian
The Greta Thunberg effect: at last, MPs focus on climate change
Michael Gove admits to feeling guilt as young activist says: your fossil fuels policy is beyond absurd
…
“This ongoing irresponsible behaviour will no doubt be remembered in history as one of the greatest failures of humankind,” she told the packed audience of MPs, officials and fellow school strikers. “You lied to us. You gave us false hope. You told us that the future was something to look forward to.”
There was no let-up for the audience. The UK, she said, was very special due to its “mind-blowing historical carbon debt”, a reference to the country’s record as the birthplace of industrialisation. But this was also, she said, because its claims of world-leading progress on cutting emissions are partly the result of “creative accounting” and are belied by the government’s plans for more high-emissions projects.
“The UK’s active current support of new exploitation of fossil fuels, like for example the UK shale gas fracking industry, the expansion of its North Sea oil and gas fields, the expansion of airports, as well as the planning permission for a brand new coalmine, is beyond absurd,” she said.
She finished to a standing ovation and cheers, then sat quietly as the panel of senior politicians gave their responses. Several appeared chastened.
“Your voice – still, calm and clear – is like the voice of our conscience,” said the environment secretary, Michael Gove. “When I listened to you, I felt great admiration, but also responsibility and guilt. I am of your parents’ generation, and I recognise that we haven’t done nearly enough to address climate change and the broader environmental crisis that we helped to create.”
Pass the sick bucket!
https://4k4oijnpiu3l4c3h-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Greta-Thunberg-Michael-Gove.jpg
“Economists in Milan and London are debating whether Italy is carrying so much debt that it might collapse into a Greek-style financial crisis.
“Their fear is that because Italy is so much bigger than Greece — and because Italy is one of the Big Three economies underpinning the eurozone — that the scale of such a crisis might be more difficult to contain this time around.
“It also underscores the un-resolvable contradiction at the heart of the European Central Bank (which governs the 19 countries that use the euro as a currency): Once a country gets into too much debt, European Union austerity rules that limit government spending militate to reduce that country’s economic growth.
“At the same time, the ECB’s rules make it impossible for a country to exit the euro without plunging itself into the financial crisis it is seeking to avoid…
“The crisis has been a long time coming, of course, so haven’t banks made sure to reduce their exposure to Italian debt? One of the reasons the Greek crisis was largely confined to Greece was because the private finance sphere successfully insulated itself from exposure to Greek debt…
“”A financial crisis that brings down the current government could lead to a new unity government which implements fiscal tightening, further depressing growth,” Nobile says. “This situation cannot last.”
“”…Italy is several orders of magnitude bigger than Greece,” Allen told Business Insider. “I think it would be more difficult to contain the contagion.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/italy-perma-recession-systemic-crisis-threatens-eurozone-2019-4?r=US&IR=T
thanks for that link Harry
really informative–I’ve saved it to re read again later
makes me all warm inside to think I wrote much the same thing a year ago
https://medium.com/@End_of_More/the-european-union-was-a-construct-of-infinite-prosperity-7a401c225171
Norman, you are most welcome. I do enjoy your articles – always such a bracing dose of common sense.
Thank you Norman.
Norman, that’s one of the scariest and insightful essays you’ve written. Thank you for the effort.
I definitely that the European Union was a construct of infinite prosperity.
The entire Global eCONomy is built on Infinite Prosperity. The Europeans just came too late to the party.
The Europeans actually came a little early to the party. They started to use up their coal resources before others. They didn’t have a whole lot of oil (except off in Russia), and they mostly used that up. Natural gas is a little better. Europeans grew their population per square kilometer based on their high energy consumption. Now they are facing declining energy consumption per capita. High priced intermittent renewables have been offered as a solution, but they don’t really work.
things were much simpler when we used to bump off a few million of ourselves once in a generation
Ugo Bardis personal history of becoming poorer i Italy. « But there is no way that we could even have dreamed to build or buy the kind of house that I inherited from my parents. Something has changed and the change is deep in the very fabric of the Italian society. And the change has a name: it is the twilight of the age of oil. Wealth and energy are two faces of the same medal: with less net energy available, what Italians could afford 50 years ago, they can’t afford anymore.
But saying that depletion is at the basis of our troubles is politically incorrect and unspeakable in the public debate.»
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2019/04/italy-becoming-poor-becoming-poor-in.html?m=1
Interesting article. I can see features of this happening here, when I compare my life with that of my children.
One aspect of this, however, is changing expectations as to what is “right.” Now a car (at least in the US) generally has air conditioning. It has mirrors on both the right and left hand sides of the car. It has antilock brakes, a backup camera, and many other mandatory features. It certainly has a radio; probably many other entertainment features as well. This wasn’t true if we go back to the 1950s or 1960s.
Ugo talks about the home that they tried to renovate not having air conditioning. It isn’t that the climate has changed all that much since the 1950s; it is that expectations have changed. If you don’t expect to have air conditioning, operating costs are lower. Insulation needs are less.
When I looked back at my college yearbook, I discovered that most of my college teachers only had master’s degrees. I expect that most of them were not writing academic papers (although I did help with a book that was being written–Counterexamples in Topology). The first author had a Ph. D; the second author did not.
We have rolled in a whole lot of costs to the system that did not exist in the past. If nothing else, we are paying for the retirement of a whole lot more seniors now than we did in the 1950s.
“We have rolled in a whole lot of costs to the system that did not exist in the past. If nothing else, we are paying for the retirement of a whole lot more seniors now than we did in the 1950s.”
This is crucial and this also means that we do not need so much oil or coal. The convenient natural gas or nuclear are the things which are needed by the ageing populations. So I would not see the things as a catastrophy, as, already before the tipping point of the peak population, the streets, the roads will be quite empty, at least in the marginal areas, due to the aged population. And the need for houses will go down, too. Maybe rising suicide rates and the deaths from failing machines and infrastructure, the local conflicts, contribute to the fact that people will not travel so much.
The collapse can be like prolonged emptying of the planet, too, in the places where various epidemics are not being spread. Basically, these various epidemics caused by the depletion are the biggest problem as there will be not much to fight about.
Unfortunately, a lot of energy uses rise. Pipelines of all kinds need to be replaced (water, sewer, natural gas, oil). This takes a lot of oil and other energy. Roads and bridges need to be maintained and resurfaced. This again takes a lot of energy, particularly oil.
If the older people would live with their families, it might somewhat reduce energy consumption per capita (because the older people would simply be part of a bigger household). But the expectation in the United States now seems to be that the elderly will live independently or in special facilities of some sort. These are not particularly low energy. They employ a lot of workers, who drive to and from work. They operate commercial kitchens. They hire gardeners and many other employees, all of whom keep up oil and other energy consumption.
it’s time all the old folks got themselves raptured
et tu, Norman?
I found this chart interesting. It shows Italy’s GDP per employed person, relative to US GDP per employed person, on a PPP basis (rather than actual currency relativity basis).
https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/5cb739a6a9c7cb1ec00e0e7b-960-357.png
I am sure that energy consumption per capita plays a role in this as well.
Italy has low population growth and this no doubt contributes to its problem well.
“…Every time China is touted to be pursuing macroeconomic reforms and said to be serious about reducing its debt burden, its economy stumbles and its government promptly pumps in more credit. Economic growth perks up, and investors uniformly praise China’s recovery…
“Given that the current asset price boom cycle is already longer than the 2001-07 cycle, the final denouement too will necessarily be worse than the fallout of the 2008 crisis. Therein lies the hope to an end of the “bullsh*it” that has characterised policymaking and much investment activity in recent times.”
^^^ https://www.livemint.com/opinion/columns/opinion-the-world-economy-is-moving-closer-to-another-hard-landing-1555926579873.html
“Ship orders world-wide have shrunk to the lowest level in 15 years…”
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/global-ship-orders-fall-to-lowest-level-in-15-years/
From the first article you quite. I think it relates to technology IPO companies only:
“In general, 84% of companies going for an initial public offering (IPO) lack profits. Ten years ago, that figure was 33%. The current profitless share offerings match the situation in… the year 2000. Yes, we are back there. The operating margin for the median company is -30%. Equity value/revenue multiples in the double-digits are more common than otherwise.”
China has definitely figured out how important growing debt is.
Even if that includes building Ghost Cities and Factories, tearing them down and rebuilding them again just to keep their fraud GDP from showing any negativity !
“In just over a month, the U.S. economy will complete 10 years of economic expansion, matching the longest expansion in history. The last time this happened, in March 2001, the economy slid from its lofty peak and into recession. The unemployment rate in the months preceding that recession dipped to 3.9 percent, nearly identical to the current rate. How likely is history to repeat and what does it mean for the Federal Reserve?”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/18/fed-is-in-worse-shape-than-economy-as-economic-expansion-hits-a-decade.html
““The Fed is between a rock and a hard place,” said Kathleen Gaffney, a portfolio manager at Eaton Vance Management in Boston. “They can’t go lower because there are signs that inflation is rising and they can’t go higher because of global political uncertainty. It leaves the market on pause.”
“…Gaffney said the Fed will likely have to raise rates again because of rising wages and other forms of inflation by the end of the year, adding that such a move will “pierce” the high valuations in both the stocks and bond markets.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-funds-globalrally-analysis/strong-stock-and-bond-markets-at-odds-over-global-growth-idUSKCN1RX0DS
“…existing stimulus effects from the Trump Tax Cuts have been waning each of the last two quarters. US GDP for the first quarter of 2019 is estimated to be substantially lower still, meaning the tax cuts, after more than a year, are grossly failing to perform as promised while they are not paying for themselves either.
“The IMF and World Bank have projected a decline in global GDP over the full year.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4255545-list-24-points-pressing-hard-toward-recession
“The current data suggests further weakness in [US] auto sales coming. The annual rate of auto sales has slowed dramatically and is approaching levels normally associated with more severe economic weakness.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4255754-auto-sales-nearly-strong-reported
“…the data strongly suggests that [US] builders are finishing homes at close to the peak rate, but not starting new ones.”
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/housing-slump-accelerates-201904211640
I liked this quote from the Reuters article:
““The bull market we’ve had for the past 10 years is essentially because of really low interest rates,” Bahuguna said.”
In fact, it is the fact that interest rates were falling that allowed asset prices (including stock prices) to rise. They have also acted to support oil and other commodity prices.
Peter Turchin is debunked again. (may be a repeat post)
http://greyenlightenment.com/peter-turchin-is-probably-wrong-about-crisis-again/
There is no crisis. The advanced world will advance with no changes. The less advanced world will bear all sufferings from peak oil
Peter Turchin seems to understand some things, but not others.
I haven’t yet read your linked article, but my impression from hearing Turchin speak and answer questions about his work is that he thinks very much like an economist. He has no knowledge of energy and the role it plays. He takes a mound of data and fits curves to it, hoping to work backward to figure out what is happening. A person cannot expect very good indications from this approach.
This doesn’t mean that everything he does is wrong however. This seems to be a common failing.
“The less advanced world will bear all sufferings from peak oil.”
Seems like a crisis. Or something else, isn’t a crise something that pass?
The author seems to be saying that declining overall civil rest (compared to previous, unusually turbulent eras) and the Trump stock boom are proof that the US doing fine. Not a very cogent argument due to the myopic timeframe and obliviousness to numerous other factors that indicate otherwise.
The whole “dark enlightenment” gothic techno-disney narrative is a PR campaign for Silicon Valley – just follow the money. The “advanced world” doesn’t exist in a vacuum.
James Howard Kunstler writes in his blog today:
“When the private oil companies finally sink into bankruptcy, the obvious “solution” will be to nationalize the industry — a giant step toward destroying the dollar and whatever residual value the industry might have had.
After a month-long case of influenza around Christmas time, the financial markets recovered and are once again demonstrating that they only go up — in defiance of the laws of physics, which actually do apply to markets and economies.”
sounds a lot like OFW…
hi, Jim…
I know that at some times in the past, JHK has read OurFiniteWorld.com. I can’t say for certain that he reads every article.
We correspond from time to time, and he interviewed me one time. We have met several times in person.
Little by little I detect in JHK’s writings that his idea of “a world made by hand” which is one of his books, is not going to happen.
Book publishers don’t really want to publish anything too “dark,” however. Makes it harder to explain the problem to the world, other than perhaps in blog posts.
Thank you Gail, for putting up this very important point. I have sought some 200 book publishers and agents and the feedback is always the same: “We are not able to publish such controversial information”.
But it is so because the world needs to know how they are being manipulated to the ‘n’th degree! It is so frustrating, so I have reverted to publishing my e-book free on various blogs, and yours is (gratefully one such).
I have over 500 readers worldwide now through this method and plan to publish on Amazon this year if all goes well. Thank you for your support, Gail.
refers to: peter@underco,co,uk
or see my funding website at:
https://www.gofundme.com/fnahvp-free-book
1985 — US: Sam Ervin dies. Senator “Sam” chaired the Watergate hearings in the spring of 1973.
On the convictions of former attorney general John Mitchell & former White House aide John Ehrlichman for their roles in the scandal, he said:
“I don’t think either one of them would have recognized the Bill of Rights if they met it on the street in broad daylight under a cloudless sky.”
And they would be too “progressive” for the Trump “Presidency”.
A new report from the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology in Sydney, Australia has some data relevant to this discussion.
“Report: Going 100% renewable power means a lot of dirty mining”
https://grist.org/article/report-going-100-renewable-power-means-a-lot-of-dirty-mining/
“Take cobalt. Each electric vehicle needs between five to ten kilograms of the bluish-white metal for its lithium-ion batteries. The authors consider cobalt a “metal of most concern for supply risks,” because nearly 60 percent of its production takes place in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a country with a dismal record of child labor and human rights abuses. Should the world’s transportation and electricity sectors ever switch to running entirely on renewables, demand for the metal would soar to more than four times the amount available in reserves, according to the researchers.”
“Payal Sampat, the mining director at Earthworks, said recycling and technological innovation could go a long way toward reducing the demand for rare metals, but cautioned that still more needs to be done. “We’re not going to tech fix our way out of this,” she said. “It’s going to require more meaningful policy changes that fundamentally reduce the overall demand.””
As Gail has shown, reducing demand will have its own effects, which few seem to anticipate.
Thanks! That is interesting. There are certainly limits on minerals of various kinds, including cobalt.
What is disturbing is that I posted a link to another article today, saying that humans and other animals need cobalt in our diets, in order to make B12. The cobalt has mostly been “mined” out of the soil, by farming and not supplementing the soil with cobalt to replace what has been taken out. Also, water sources are now “purer.” So now we need to supplement the diets of farm animals with B12. Thus, the B12 problem is no longer a vegan problem.
There are multiple uses for cobalt, including to replace the cobalt that has been mined out of the soil with farming. The electric vehicles cannot use all of the cobalt, or the world has a problem.
There is an interesting 58 page study linked at the (rather short) Grist article that says a whole lot more. It can be accessed directly at this link.
https://earthworks.org/cms/assets/uploads/2019/04/MCEC_UTS_Report_lowres-1.pdf
Interesting, yes, but flawed I fear. Mining is an intrinsically unsustainable effort, because what is mind is never replaced. And the current practice of mining the highest concentration first, then the next, then the next, … is a Red Queen’s Race we shall inevitably lose.
The only sustainable source of these important elements or compounds is the most dilute source: the ocean. Not a new idea: my Viking ancestors didn’t mine iron, they picked it out of rivers as “bog iron”, sequestered from the running water by helpful bacteria. Surely we could genetically engineer small creatures able to concentrate almost anything we want to extract.
I don’t think that we can genetically engineer small creatures to concentrate almost anything we want to extract in the timeframe needed, however. That is the big catch.
Thank you again, Gail. On balance, I agree. We can do it, certainly, but in time to sustain a necessary green revolution, no way. Perhaps a task for the next civilisation?
OIL (BRENT) PRICE COMMODITY
74.01 USD +2.00 (2.78%)
Well, its not 86, but it is not 49.
Marching up– we will see if it continues.
I’m with Gail–146 is not in the cards.
We would like the upward slide in prices to continue as long as possible, because this indicates that our debt-based system is continuing to pump in more demand, relative to supply. Right now, it is fear that the loss of oil from Iran (because of the loss of US waivers) will reduce supply, and thus tighten the market. This may, indeed, be the case for a while. But at some point, too many things will go wrong:
-Too many airlines will fail because they cannot get enough customers with the higher oil prices.
-Countries with big foreign tourism markets will experience huge problems (Greece, Spain, Cuba, island nations in general)
-Food prices will need to rise, or farmers will be in even worse shape financially than they are now. If food prices rise, this will tend to “squeeze” consumers.
-Fuel prices for commuters will rise, forcing a cutback in discretionary expenditure (restaurants, churches and other charities, vacation travel), leading to cutbacks in these ares.
Eventually layoffs will result from the high prices. But there is a time-lag involved. Employment seems to “lag” recession indicators, in general.
Absolutely, the 2008 / 2009 GFC was finally ushered in with the sky high oil prices. I’m curious if they can stop the contagion once it gets rolling. I believe there are enough people aware of the hubris and the theft that have been inflicted on them from these massive bubbles and then “saving the economy” after they burst. How many more trillions are they going to shovel to the elites next time?
I see that oil is up 3% since we have received our morning tweets from dear leader.
I swear it is like watching a monkey play with a loaded revolver sometimes. I don’t see how we kick the can much further with so many swans circling.
-Too many airlines will fail because they cannot get enough customers with the higher oil prices.
Speaking of airlines, Air India now close to defaulting on loans
https://airlinegeeks.com/2019/04/22/air-india-close-to-defaulting-on-loans-for-aircraft-purchases/
This sounds quite possible. There was an article about Jet Airways ceasing operations last week.
I found an article at that time saying that Air India had been losing both money and market share for quite a while. Air India is government owned. Jet Airways isn’t. The earlier article said that India wanted to privatize Air India; this article said they could not get any bids for privatizing the company.
Now India wants to sell and office building, to try to pay down Air India’s debts. It doesn’t sound good. We have had our eyes on China, Italy, Venezuela, and a few other vulnerable countries. Maybe India is pushing limits as well. These problems can’t help orders for new planes.
These problems can’t help orders for new planes.
I believe Air India is looking at using some of Jet Airways aircraft. May be this is the future as airlines hit walls other airlines will take the leases over of the grounded aircraft?
I doubt that Air India can afford the leases of Jet Airways, either. Leases are (in some sense) another form of debt.
“Electric Car-Owners Shocked: New Study Confirms EVs Considerably Worse For Climate Than Diesel Cars”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-21/new-study-shocks-electric-cars-considerably-worse-climate-diesel-cars
The issue of pollution related to battery consumption would seem to apply to wind and solar PV, if they really cannot be utilized without considerable battery backup. Of course, if some other approach is used (such as molten salt for CSP electricity storage) this would make a difference.
Thank you, Gail, and I agree. But wind and solar installations themselves create pollution. I once did a rough calculation of the EROEI of those tall windmills countries keep erecting, and it came out negative. Add up the cost of mining the raw materials, refining them, forging intricate components, The add the cost of erecting them in (largely barren) windy areas, building the infrastructure to connect roads to them and them to the grid. And factor in the real useful life, which is about one third of what the industry claims… It’s a big number.
The windmills of the middle ages had two big advantages. First, they could be made sustainably, by the carpenter and the blacksmith. Secondly, their use involved no energy conversion, and needed no energy storage buffer. But then, they were part of a sustainable civilisation.
Bad news for car and Oil/Shale companies !
“America’s Love Affair With Cars Nearly Finished. At increasing rates, millennials and generation Z see no need to get a drivers license.“
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-21/americas-love-affair-cars-nearly-finished
let’s make some rough estimates:
a car owner pays 30k for 15 years of ownership = 2k per year
drives 20,000 (a lot!) miles per year at 40 mpg = 500 gallons x $3 = $1500
repair/maintain $500 per year
insurance $1000 per year
so that’s $5000 per year…
what does that get?
that 20,000 miles gets the driver to/from work 200+ round trips per year…
gets a heavy load of groceries from a store a mile away… multiple times per week if needed…
gets the driver and passengers to a vacation many hundreds of miles away…
gets out of the driveway in about a minute after an urgent phone call, or after realizing that s/he’s running late to something important…
and guess what?
if you own a car and don’t feel like driving, you can call an uber…
but if you don’t own, and occasionally call an uber, you don’t have the option of taking your own car when you feel like it…
the car ownership thing is far superior when all types of trips are considered… 4 minutes down the road… 4 hours down the highway… for a quick lunch or in the middle of the night…
bottom line is that there have been solid reasons for the popularity of cars… 200+ million cars in the USA…
it’s the economics… almost anyone who can fairly easily afford the $5k per year will own…
but each generation from now on will be getting poorer on average…
millenialls and gen Z are on the tail end of BAU prosperity…
“but each generation from now on will be getting poorer on average…
millenialls and gen Z are on the tail end of BAU prosperity…”
I think that pretty much summed it up. Besides making matters worse, is online shopping and online grocery delivery. I had a discussion with a PR rep for the Indycar racing series and he feels that autoracing will be a thing of the past in the next 20-30 yrs because fewer people will own cars and won’t care or have a connection to watching an auto race.
I agree with you, David, but you forgot to mention the lottery of death and destruction car owners enter every time they drive. You can’t really put a price on serious injury or death, although insurance companies do just that. You also forgot the paving paradise bit and the road rage bit and the stressed out stuck in traffic bit and the lack of exercise leading to all sorts of nasty diseases bit.
Like just about every modern convenience, cars come with a downside.
That’s why smart folks prefer four-legged transport.
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/e7cWVWWNREw/maxresdefault.jpg
I was thinking about cars and roads today. Here in Australia there are probably about enough cars and trucks etc to fill up every road in no more than half of Sydney. Yet we have so many paved surfaces throughout the country that must be 1000s of times the area of the cars and they will all need resurfacing in the next 20 years. That’s all oil derived. EVs will definitely not be a solution. And let’s not forget about the oil that goes into each tyre.
Michael Ruppert said the same in his documentary movie “Collapse”.
Hard to believe he died 5 years ago!😶
Boy, the years fly by too FAST…right Eddie!?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UCxqxIQpiqk
Amazing the Human Hoard BAU still rolls on by hook and crook.
One reason I still hang in there is to witness the Seneca Cliff…
and to be at the End off the World Party!😉🎉
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2YN6Gr-1wu0
Ruppert died by suicide, FE gave up on prepping from what I understood and moved forward.
From an old fart, each yesterday is generally worth more than tomorrow metaphorically speaking as the day before we were younger. Eventually all of us die, how many days have been spent preparing for the end both intellectually and physically? Humans are resilient and self organizing, they also adapt which means that which does not work is discarded and life moves forward. Those who are doing BAU, experiencing the challenges of living, practicing adapting might be better off than those who have a certitude of what tomorrow will be like and if wrong have only thought of one outcome instead of living and practicing adapting both mentally and physically.
Think of it as an adventure.
Dennis L.
Yeah, Remember when Michael decided it was time, suppose it was a combination of things, maybe health issues, the toll of being a light of the what actually was going on, and being a Target by the Establishment. Heard he didn’t make the royalties he expected on the
Collapse movie sales and was just getting by financially.
There is a price to pay being a “radical” and shaking up the status quo
My favorite clip is of him exposing the CIA and its drug operation, classic!
Cause the resignation of the CIA Director
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UT5MY3C86bk&list=PLSwyswRUo6jnnNb_caoj5j-lG7wE6Oiyo&index=2&t=0s
Fast Eddie moving on and giving up! Wow, what a surprise, no way Jose!
Must be back in Hong Kong, living the good life!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KZ-u_kpGE-0
Too bad Mrs Eddie has a short lease on him and has a curfew of 10 pm or else!
Happy wife, happy life.😍
From what I recall, FE/TM was sort of a lukewarm practical collapsnik, he got the overall picture, but with the wrong bet on ‘universal single crash any moment scenario’ got entangled (as many of us do anyway) in the time horizon, sequencing and actionable performance misfire. If he was to be believed he regretted the NZ bolthole decision (although claimed possessing several places of residence in the wider SE Asia), which was kind of wrongish from the day one, as it was based on the old strategic relocation principle that nuclear exchange or industrial accidents are best to be survived in the southern hemisphere. But looking at the map one quickly realizes that hemisphere and NZ in particular is one of the worst possible choices if one seeks the end of the road hide out.. there are much better places not as much boxed in when speaking about the default choice in the North.. Not mentioning the plethora of douche bag – lesser millionaires doing the same and becoming his annoying neighbors in the NZ. In fact the true fat cats with either granted direct access to gov-mil bunkers or doom’s day private facilities on their own are not much worried about the immediate event itself, which they will survive with flying colors in safety and abundance, instead they are more worried about the bleak vision over the next years, when spare parts and life support systems might go dark and or their lieutenants and staffers misbehave..
Horses can be damned dangerous: my great-grandfather died in 1912 as the result of a carelessly placed hayfork going into his leg in the stables, the wound went bad and was inoperable. Took over a year to kill him, a very nasty end.
But he was a ‘horsey gent’ through and through, it as his life, so in a quite way appropriate, although a broken neck from being thrown would have been preferable.
It would be interesting to see the injuries per horse mile as compared to car mile.
Years ago I had a farmer patient, big guy, raised work horses as a hobby; one horse stepped on the farmer’s foot, not sure if it ever fully recovered. OSHA approved, steel toed cowboy boots anyone?
Dennis L.
My guess is that the injuries per horse mile are higher. Something goes wrong; the horse bolts, and you fall off.
the famous example of actor Christopher Reeve. he never blamed his horse.
my father used to scare the sheet out of me by reminding me that accidents don’t have to fatal, but can leave you paralyzed for life. thrown by a horse, wipeout on a skate board, xyz car collision, etc., etc. on the bright side, it reminds you of how lucky you are not to be living such an existence.
cue Monty Python, closing scene of “The Life of Brian”.
Horses are accidents waiting to happen.
David, the problem with cars is not about the convenience of the owner: it is about the massive inconvenience they inflict on everyone else. We now have suburbs where all children, and many old people, live in near permanent house arrest. Where there is simply no safe place to walk, no open space in which to meet, and no amenities within three miles or so. The damage to the human spirit is immense.
And, as I found out living in the US for many years, the automobile is the great destroyer of liveable cities. When I left (for Singapore), I vowed never again to own a car.
The only reliable replacement for fossil fuels in electricity generation still seems to be only nuclear:
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/finland-to-start-constructing-nuclear-plant-with-russian-reactor-in-2021/
Right, but we are having a hard time affording it now, with all of the concerns about how robust the structures must be made, to withstand anything that might happen. Too many companies in this business are having financial problems. We also have not solved the problem with spent fuel, including the problem with rods in cooling pools, if we lose electricity in general. It is hard to get support for building more of these, given the many issues involved.
Chuck the rod in the sea. The coolant level will never fall too low in the 300,000 years needed to completely decay the rods.
Well, the Fins sort of win in the lottery again, because they have got good long term biz relations with Russia, which is nowadays the only big enough and reliable NPP industrial chain supplier. They will simply take out the spent fuel from Finland on train to their new upgraded and enlarged recycling facilities back home (I described earlier)..
The previous deal included British defense-energy subcontractor for some of the controls of their Russian NPP (mostly for political reasons), not sure this will continue into the future though, they could go with only one general supplier for that new deal.
Countries such as UK, US, simply can’t do that (order Russian NPP) on any grounds, political, economic, simple logistics.. South Koreans and Chinese are the only other players to be mentioned now but they seriously lack some of the goodies (waste fuel recycling and or enough experience and production capacity).
For all Gentiles..It’s Easter Sunday Christ is Risen Allah be Praise….something like that….
Have a nice Day EVERYONE…. Especially, you, Gail, for giving so much to us all here and the work you put in it all😃
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iGJGsQUrltQ
There is a plan…by the ……
Thanks! Happy Easter and Happy Spring!
Yes, I did attend the services this morning. In fact, I attend church petty much every Sunday morning. This is one way I see real live people, whom I know fairly well, on a regular basis. (On Easter, there are a lot of “extras” as well.)
I ran across an article saying that religion triggers the same area of the brain as sex, drugs and love.
The related academic article is a study of 19 Mormons. (OK, but not a huge study.) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17470919.2016.1257437
I am guessing that video games also trigger the same areas of the brain. So, in at least in the view of some, we don’t need religion any more.
Also, now that we have governments who claim to care for us from cradle to grave, a person wonders why we need religion, other than “he who dies with the most toys wins.”
The external God doesn’t seem to be doing a very good job, so there is a real temptation to move on to sex, drugs, and whatever else gives pleasure.
Many early religions also offered the sharing of intoxicating substances and sacred sex as part of their rites – a happy combination for everyone it seems. The current world religions are rather dull in that respect.
And, of course, the consumption of sacrificed animals – oxen, sheep.
Everything the hairless ape could desire, in fact.
We need some sort of excuse to get together on a regular basis with other people. “Meetup Groups” are not quite the same. These are interest based groups that are advertised over the internet. They often meet once a month, for a particular purpose. For example, mothers of preschool children, who want to get together and socialize. And a lot of dating sites of this type.
Also, hanging around bars sometimes serves this purpose, especially for men. But it works much less well for women.
With modern moving around, get togethers with families members are harder to orchestrate. They mostly occur over the phone.
Women, especially, need the social outlet of churches.
Consistent with Camille Paglia’s comments regarding women in cultures of old laughing while doing laundry at a stream. Lady’s aid comes to mind as well. In an earlier day boys had DeMolay, men the Mason’s with some rituals tracing their roots back to masons in the time of the Pharaohs.
Dennis L.
Xabier, religion over most of the world has been destroyed by monotheism, perhaps the most evil idea that has ever gripped the human mind. And people are still killing each other wholesale in the name of their favourite supernatural obscenity.
Not just religion either, Robert. Throughout the centuries, Homo Sapiens has a propensity to imagine secular as well as religious ideological beliefs and then lock onto them with demented passion. Indeed some of our most destructive beliefs, like that of perpetual growth, though not religious may be regarded as a quasi religious doctrine. Faith in technology is another.
+++++++++
I think you have it figured out.
Agreed wholeheartedly
No, video people are not satisfying in the way relations with real in person people.
Or:
Adonis lives! Osiris is reborn!
Very interesting new study.
«In our paper, we show that the German banking crisis was crucial to boosting the Nazi movement’s electoral fortunes. It aggravated the German economy’s downturn, leading to more radical voting because of declining incomes. In addition, it also increased the Nazis’ popularity directly. The bank at the centre of the crisis, Danatbank, was led by prominent Jewish banker Jakob Goldschmidt. The Nazi party’s central long-standing claim that “the Jews are [Germany’s] misfortune”2 was thus seemingly borne out by indisputable fact. We argue that these non-economic effects of the banking crisis were crucial to explaining political radicalisation.»
https://voxeu.org/article/financial-crisis-and-right-wing-extremism-germany-1931-33
The laws of physics work out through real human actors, in ways they don’t really understand.
If it weren’t the Jews, it would have been someone else (gypsies, and others). There weren’t enough resources to go around.
There was an interesting exhibition at the museum here which showed that the persecution and murder of the Jews was foreshadowed in the illustrations placed on the emergency money which was produced in Germany at the end of WW1.
They showed caricature Jews and bankers being hanged. All pre-Nazi party.
I’d never heard of these notes before, it’s rather chilling looking at them even now. They set out just what was going to happen.
The Jew-hatred of eastern Europe had almost nothing to do with 20th century banking crises though, everyone shared it. So they found no protectors when the German armies arrived.
The future often casts a shadow…..
Self-organizing systems work in strange ways!
“So they (Jews) found no protectors when the German armies arrived.” That’s not true. There were many, many Poles helping Jews during German occupation (even though it was punishable by Germans with death, unlike in the Western European countries under German occupation)., and thousands and thousands of Jews were saved this way.
There was also a widespread antisemitism, but this is another story…
4.5 hours… nights are short at southern latitudes.
Photos show the dramatic difference between an $800K home in Texas and San Francisco
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Photos-show-the-difference-between-a-California-13706715.php
Gee, I wonder why?
It must be the allure of human feces and drug needles on the sidewalks.
LOL!
I don’t remember California being so unappealing years ago when I visited, but the last time I visited, it seemed way too crowded. The roads were overly-full and not well maintained, either.
Yep, that is why the difference– (sarc)
Maybe the 5th largest GDP on Earth is a reason?
I mean, besides a stellar geography.
(larger than the UK, and has a huge budget surplus)
You should know by now Duncan that GDP will matter even less than it does now after collapse. Unsustainable living is unsustainable living…
Yep—
But the rest of 3rd world US won’t get the food shipped from CA, 1/4 the total for the US.—-
Filling up the F150, and getting beer at the store for the football game will be off the table for our Red State friends.
Cali grows food from massiveaamounts of imported water. Therein lies the problem. So our Red State friends will almost certainly be enjoying their beer while Cali enjoys the drought that it would otherwise experience.
Cali grows food from massiveaamounts of imported water.
Most food is grown with in state water.
The only imported water into California is the Colorado River, and that is only a fraction of the southern part of the State.
Living in Northern California, I had local water, usually from my own well.
Lots is pumped from depleting aquifers. Without the fossil fuel system, this ends. Even with the fossil fuel system, this will come to an end in not too long.
you’re referring to the Tenderloin district. it was never a good idea to hang out in that part of SF, unless, of course, you have to.
No doubt you’d need the help of some illegals to keep 3500sqft spick and span!
Lets be honest– that house is a embarrassment, unless you live in Red State US.
i’d rather live in the dump in paradise, than in the mansion in the dump. too bad they don’t show these homes in “climatovision”(TM), where you can feel the oppressive heat and humidity when you step outside, not to mention the mosquitoes and flies. you would appreciate the coolness of the maritime climate offered by the Bay area. it rarely gets over 90 in the summer, and it never snows in the winter. also, the Bay area never gets hit by hurricanes or tornados, whereas in Texas it’s a crapshoot, playing “dodge ball” for keeps with tornados.
I’m a former Bay Area person.
There is a reason SF is the most expensive city in the world:
San Francisco is The Most Expensive City in The World
https://www.zumper.com/blog/2019/03/san-francisco-is-the-most-expensive-city-in-the-world/
Does anyone know why?
I’ll hazard a guess: because people who love to speculate on the eternal growth of the tech sector are the same people who haven’t a clue about imminent economic collapse? The Bay Area would be a terrible place to try to eke out a living under low-energy conditions.
A guess:
Price’s Law states the square root of the number of employees does 50% of the work, or with a workforce of 10,000, 100 are doing 50% of the work. In SF the business are so profitable that the overall square root of the people do half of the work and the people who gather there are extremely talented. It is said that a good goal is to always be around people brighter than you so SF attracts the brightest of the bright and for them housing, living expenses are still minor relative to wealth. If a person is struggling there then probably that person is not one of the brightest of the bright, but they are hanging with very bright people.
Dennis L.
Moving to San Francisco in the current climate I would argue is short sighted. Classic case of an expression of intelligence at the expense of wisdom. What lovers of California on here don’t acknowledge, is that the better off and more ‘developed’ a location is now, the further it’ll have to fall, and the harder hit it will be by collapse. Duncan called the Midwest ‘3rd World’- good for the Midwest: it’ll cope better. CA citizens will panic because they have such dependence on existing infrastructure and services. Not a very resilient place to be.
It’s completely moral to import a class of helots, uprooting them from their homes and cultures, as long as you justify it by some abstract allusion to “human rights”.
The African swine fever in China could be out of control and lead to a protein shortage in China.
https://www.vice.com/en_in/article/zmpv4y/china-pork-shortage-african-swine-fever
Yea, This Week in Virology covered that recently.
It is just a matter of time before the US gets hit.
Europe is being threatened by the disease spread in wild boars.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus“The swelling around the kidneys and the muscle hemorrhages visible here are typical of pigs with African swine fever.
In the acute form of the disease caused by highly virulent strains, pigs may develop a high fever, but show no other noticeable symptoms for the first few days.[9] They then gradually lose their appetites and become depressed. In white-skinned pigs, the extremities turn blueish-purple and hemorrhages become apparent on the ears and abdomen. Groups of infected pigs lie huddled together shivering, breathing abnormally, and sometimes coughing. If forced to stand, they appear unsteady on their legs. Within a few days of infection, they enter a comatose state and then die. In pregnant sows, spontaneous abortions occur. In milder infections, affected pigs lose weight, becoming thin, and develop signs of pneumonia, skin ulcers, and swollen joints.[10]”
That’s just sad to read, although death comes for livestock in many forms. Pigs have to be one of if not the most mistreated animals by humans.
Bacon
I am a pig farmer and keeping pigs outside with mud wallows , pasture and dirt to dig around in is what keeps them happy. African swine fever can easily transfer from wild pigs to domestic stock if they are farmed outside however . So swine fever forces production into climate controled buildings with very tight enviornmental controls . These huge hog operations are something close to hell for the pigs, metal grate floors, and zero access to dirt. When African swine fever gets here I am done , it’s bad enough sending happy pigs to slaughter but a least I try to give them a good life while they are here.
I am sure that the climate controlled buildings are much more fossil fuel intensive than just allowing the pigs to run around outside. It is not really a sustainable way of raising pigs.
Good for you: just like my neighbour’s sheep and pigs, their life is basically heavenly with no predators to chomp bits out if them, and lots of space. I hope such a horrible disease doesn’t reach your farm.
ditto – I have no problem with humane farming
Humans don’t need nearly as much protein as we have been eating. The National Kidney Foundation says https://www.kidney.org/news/monthly/protein-in-our-diet
It does not take a serving of meat a day to get this much protein.
The death of all the pigs in China would lead to a shortage of pork,but not a shortage of protein. The amount of protein available for direct human consumption would increase significantly,not decrease. Pigs do not create protein. They consume and recombine the amino acids which are initially synthesised by plants. Pigs can be a valuable ‘recombiner’ where they are part of small scale agriculture,but in industrial agriculture, where they consume mainly grains and soy beans, they are a very inefficient way of obtaining protein.
All protein is not created equal. In humans, animal protein show far higher levels of biointegration than plant protein.
obviously that should read animal proteins
That’s why you need to mix it like Rice and Beans to make a complete protein.
Gail is correct, grown humans do not require as much and the human body can not store it.
Whatever is not utilized is just put in with waste…😮
The need for proteins has been greatly exaggerated.
Animal proteins/meat comes with several drawbacks, such as an increased risk of cancer.
Pork is maybe 50% protein.
Grains and soybeans much less, and possibly the pig feed is not fit for human consumption .
Our kidneys are wrecked by too much protein. Many drugs also have an adverse impact on kidneys. The national kidney association recommends only 44 grams of protein (176 calories worth) of protein for someone whose ideal weight is 120 pounds and 55 grams (or 220 calories) worth of protein for someone whose ideal weight is 150 pounds. This amounts to something like 10% (tops 12%) of total calories. It is easy to get this much protein from a mixture of vegetables and grains. At most, a person can only have a little meat and milk in the mix, or the percentage from protein goes way to high.
US farmers have been pushing people in the US to eat a whole lot more meat and cheese than is possibly needed for this level of protein.
The reason I am concerned about this is osteoporosis. This also seems to be caused partly by too much protein in the diet. I was reading yesterday that bone densities in the US have fallen materially, even for people as young at 30 years old. I expect that too much meat/cheese in the diet is the problem.
The argument was that you could get more protein by eating the pig feed, which is not true.
When I look up cut corn in the USDA data base, I find that there are 2 grams of protein in 80 calories of corn. Two grams of protein = 2 x 4 = 8 calories protein. Comparing the 8 to the 80, corn is about 10% protein. There seem to be 2 grams of fiber in corn as well. It is not all bad. (Of course, this is corn for humans, not “field corn” for pigs.
Soy beans have 8.5 grams of protein in a 120 calories of soy beans. Multiplying out, 8.5 grams of protein x 4 calories per gram comes to 30 calories of proein. Soy beans seem to be about 30 / 120 = 25% protein.
Animals are very inefficient users of the food they eat. One estimate is that they need to eat 10 times as many calories, as the calories of meat they produce. I am sure this varies with the animal. They also require the use a huge amount of fresh water.
It is only very wealthy economies that can afford to feed their people very much meat (as well as refined foods of all kinds). Judging by how poorly life expectancies in the US line up with those in other countries, the US’s approach (lots of meats and lots of refined foods) is not working well.
Humans have fat (EFA, or essential fatty acids) and protein (EEA, or essential amino acids) requirements for OPTIMAL health that plants cannot meet on their own outside of a highly industrialized system (supplements and/or imports). That is not even considering the vitamin and mineral requirements for OPTIMAL health, which organ meets (liver, cod liver oil, heart, brains, etc) are by far the best sources of ounce for ounce.
Optimal health is a bit beyond mere survival, and likely beyond the habits of most people. Balance of plants and animals in the diet is likely best.
And the primary correlation with longevity and “health”-gevity is muscle mass. Muscle mass requires a full compliment of EEA’s, very difficult to come by sans animal (or at the very least, dairy) protein.
Concerned about osteoporosis? Read the calcium paradox for a better handle on calcium, vitamin D and vitamin K and their somewhat complex interaction/s in us humans…
Just like the actual energy story we get here is largely more complex than usual sources will touch on, so is OPTIMAL human health.
Somehow, people almost everywhere have chosen to use a mix of at least a bit of animal (sometimes milk) protein plus plant-based foods.
Also, I have noticed that studies talk about J shaped curves when it comes to life expectancy. There is a sweet spot. Too low isn’t good, and neither is too high.
It is true. Gail is correct when she says that there is a loss of protein and calories at each step of a trophic chain . Proteins are combinations of various amino acids.. Most single vegetable sources do not have all the amino acids,but all the amino acids are available from different vegetable sources,so a mix of different grains legumes and vegetables supplies all the essential
amino acids. Proteins are metabolised as a source of energy,just like carbohydrates and
fats are,which is why there is a loss of all of those at each trophic level. (Some of the ingested amino acids form part of the animals body,and others are metabolised to supply the energy the animal requires)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feed_conversion_ratio
I think animals with low feed conversion ratios live really horrible lives.
I don’t think the animals drink very much water. To the extent it is not entirely fake news, which it mostly must be, it must be indirect through farming the soy and corn.
Grazing animals around here seems to share a bath tub the farmer possibly fills.
We need to consume some measure of animal protein for the sake of Vitamin B12 – the only vitamin that we cannot acquire from vegetarian sources.
I believe you can get B12 from sauerkraut.
Still, animal D and K, and probably others, have higher quality.
This is from an article I found about vitamin B12, called B12: Why it’s not just a vegan issue.
See my other comment. The reason the farmed animals have B12 is because they were given B12 supplements!
Maybe you shouldnt eat factory farmed animals?
I certainly do my best not to eat meat or dairy products from factory farmed animals. We don’t eat much dairy or meat to begin with, but what I do buy, I try to get from non-factory farmed sources.
Thank you for your comments on diet, in this area also I follow your lead; once in a while though a nice steak and potato with butter does go down easily.
Dennis L.