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The war with Iran is not going well. It is difficult to supply US troops with adequate food and other necessities. With summer arriving soon, the region will soon be an even more inhospitable place for ground troops to fight. An underlying problem is that the world economy was reaching resource limits even before the Iran War began, adding to the difficulties.
The most pressing resource limit is distillate fuel oil–an industry term for what we think of as diesel and jet fuel. This fuel is heavily used in transportation. It is also used extensively in agriculture and industry. Somehow, the system needs to cut back on these fuels for international trade so that more fuel is available for agriculture and industry.
President Trump of the US and President Xi of China will be meeting in Beijing on May 14-15. This meeting would seem to be the perfect time to start reorganizing the world with shorter trade routes, so that the world economy uses less fuel for transportation. China and the US are the two great powers in the world. Keeping trade mostly within the two areas shown in Figure 1 would be a way of using fuel oil more sparingly.
An advantage of such a plan, besides saving on fuel, is that it could stop the Iran War without clearly declaring one side the winner or loser. In this post, I will attempt to explain the situation further.
[1] Based on the ideas of Dr. Mohammed Marandi, I believe that China might be able to mediate a settlement between the US and Iran.
Dr. Marandi was born in the United States of Iranian parents. He currently lives in Iran, where he is a professor at the University of Tehran. In the video, One Country Quietly Won this War, he points out that, often, when two countries battle each other, neither one emerges as the clear winner. Both of them are damaged by the war. The actual winner may be a country that does not seem to be directly involved in the war.
In the video referenced above, Dr. Marandi discusses three historical situations in which a nation not directly involved in a conflict gained stature by being the “adult in the room,” when two other nations battled each other. In this case, Dr. Marandi believes that China could very well be the country that can exert enough pressure on both sides to get them to accept a proposed solution. He says that China has acted behind the scenes to bring about the ceasefire, and that Trump has acknowledged China’s role.
Dr. Marandi suggests the idea that the upcoming meeting of the two presidents might be an opportune moment to make major steps toward a mutually agreed settlement. I believe that the underlying problem is that there isn’t enough energy (particularly oil) to support a world population of over eight billion. Dividing up markets in the way I have suggested would at least somewhat alleviate the shortage. Of course, there may be other terms of a settlement, as well. In addition, not all the terms may be determined precisely at this time.
[2] The world doesn’t have enough diesel and jet fuel to maintain the current level of trade across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Figure 2 shows that per capita diesel and jet fuel started to drop at the time of the Great Financial Crisis in 2007-2009. Their supply took a larger step down in 2020, and it hasn’t completely recovered. In 2026, the Iran War has taken out more crude oil supply, for an unknown period of time.
Diesel and jet fuel are both very important as transportation fuels. Diesel is also important in agriculture because it provides the power needed for heavy machinery to till fields, even under the most adverse conditions. Diesel provides the power needed for large commercial trucks, many trains, and ships. Earth moving equipment is also typically operated by diesel fuel.
If the amount of trade across the Atlantic and Pacific could be greatly reduced, it would help alleviate the shortage of distillates. Of course, the tourist trade would also need to be greatly reduced. With recent spikes in aviation fuel prices, many flights are being cut. Some airlines, including Spirit Airlines in the US, are going bankrupt. The problem is starting to solve itself, but more changes will be needed.
[3] Looking at population and oil supplies, the Americas seems likely to come out somewhat ahead.
[3a] Comparing the populations of the two areas, the World ex Americas is much larger, and its population is growing faster.
President Xi (leading one hemisphere) would get the very large and still rapidly growing part of the world population. President Trump would get a smaller and less rapidly growing share of the world population. Between 2021 and 2024, world population grew an average of 0.6% per year in the Americas, and an average of 0.9% per year in the World ex Americas.
[3b] The Americas seem to have an advantage with respect to crude oil production.
It makes sense to look at energy amounts on a per-capita basis because the quantity needed depends on the number of people requiring the benefits of transportation, agriculture, and industry. On this basis, crude oil production of the Americas has clearly been outshining that of the World ex Americas. It is higher on a per-capita basis. In addition, the amount available has been increasing in recent years.
Figure 5, below, shows total crude oil production (not per capita).
Figure 5 suggests that since 2005, crude oil production for the World ex Americas has hardly increased. In fact, total extraction has decreased since 2019. A person viewing this data might conclude that crude oil production in this area may already be past its peak.
On the other hand, Figure 5 shows that oil production of the Americas has increased by about 65% since 2005. Many people believe that US shale production will soon decline. At the same time, however, increases seem likely in several other countries in the Americas, including Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana. Thus, while crude oil production for the Americas may decline in the near future, its decline is likely to be gradual.
[3c] Crude oil production by geographical area outside of the Americas shows declining production in all areas.
Figure 6 shows that Europe’s crude oil production started its permanent decline in 2001. Asia-Pacific’s production hit a maximum in 2010, and it has been declining since. Africa’s peak oil production took place in 2008, and it has been mostly declining since.
Russia+, which I use to refer to Russia plus nearby countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union, has an unusual production pattern. Its crude oil production started to decline in 1989, two years before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. (This collapse in crude oil production likely contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.) Crude oil production for Russia+ rose from 1998 to 2019.
Russia+’s production took a big step down in 2020, and it has not been able to recover since. A person might think that Russia+’s oil production was post peak, even before the 2022 conflict with Ukraine broke out. If an oil exporter doesn’t have enough oil to export, it tends to create financial problems within an economy. Participating in a war can appear to mitigate the country’s problems.
Many people assume that the Middle East has endless inexpensive-to-produce crude oil. I don’t think that this is the case. Crude oil production of the Middle East (Figure 6 above) hit two similar peaks in 2016 and 2018, and it has been lower in years since then. I think that Middle Eastern oil production is likely past peak partly because of depletion issues and partly because most countries in the area require high taxes on oil exports to provide subsidies for their ever-growing populations. This leads OPEC to try to maintain high prices. Lower crude oil production since 2018 is consistent with the hypothesis that oil production for the Middle East is mostly post-peak.
One additional difficulty of the World ex Americas is that it is so heavily populated that it cannot access tight oil that might be available without displacing a large number of residents. Another difficulty is that very old wells, such as those in Saudi Arabia and Iran, are ones that it might not be possible to restart if they are shut in for an extended time.
[4] In terms of mining and manufacturing, the Americas seems to come out behind the World ex Americas.
The World ex Americas has rapidly ramped up mining and manufacturing. Coal has been the preferred industrial fuel, with natural gas consumption also increasing.
Figure 7 shows that the energy consumption of the World ex Americas started increasing more rapidly after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. The consumption of coal and natural gas has especially increased.
The economies of the Americas have tended to shift towards service economies. Emphasis has been placed on fuel efficiency. Homes are now better insulated, light bulbs are more efficient, and engines of vehicles are more efficient. As a result, energy consumption within the Americas has tended to stay flat (Figure 8).
I have used the same scale on Figure 8 as on Figure 7 to emphasize how low energy consumption for the Americas is now, relative to the rest of the world. After US oil prices first rose to a high level in 1973, the US started transferring manufacturing to lower-wage countries. Southeast Asian countries began to be favored after 2001. Moving manufacturing abroad helped hold down US energy consumption and helped make the cost of goods to the consumer cheaper.
The problem today is that moving so much manufacturing elsewhere has made it difficult for the Americas to go back to producing its own goods, including clothing, furniture, and transformers for electrical systems. Supply lines for a particular item, such as a refrigerator, often run through many countries around the world.
[5] The full transition to the configuration shown on Figure 1 could take well over 100 years.
Changes, such as new supply lines and the new placement of major population areas, cannot happen very quickly. But I expect that some of the same underlying principles that guided these decisions in the past will continue to guide them in the future.
For example, infrastructure (roads, bridges, pipelines, and (today) long distance electricity transmission lines) seems to be the most difficult part of an economy to maintain because of the huge amount of energy required. Before the days of fossil fuels, I understand that slave labor was often used to build and maintain infrastructure. Similarly, slave labor was sometimes used to staff the mines needed to support the building of such infrastructure. As we lose fossil fuels, we will need to think about reducing our reliance on infrastructure.
One low-infrastructure approach used in the past was to build cities near bodies of water, so that fewer roads would be needed. Boats could be used to transport goods without building roads or bridges. If fish were available, they could be caught and used for food. In Figure 1, I am imagining that we will head back in this direction, with cities especially along navigable bodies of water and the ocean.
Unless we discover ways to replace fossil fuel energy, I would expect that the system will tend to go down in the reverse order of when it was put up. In general, electricity was last to be added, after coal, oil, and gas from coal. Electrification was first built in cities; then electricity transmission lines were added to provide electricity to rural areas. Above-ground lines tend to be damaged in storms, leading to a need for frequent repairs. Because of this issue, I would expect rural electricity to disappear quite quickly, unless it is generated at the location where it is used.
Natural gas shipped as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) was added very late. Its cost tends to be much higher than that of pipeline gas. I expect it to disappear quite quickly.
A full transition to the two trading zones shown on Figure 1 would require a huge number of changes in supply lines. A 2025 chart by Visual Capitalist shows how much control China has over critical minerals. It states, “China controls key materials such as graphite, rare earths, and gallium–essential for green technologies and defense industries.” While the US has started working on its own production of minerals, it will also need to develop the processing capability for these minerals. Putting all of this in place will likely take many decades. This is a significant factor in the 100-year estimate.
[6] If energy supplies are limited, I would expect population centers closest to fuel sources to be especially favored.
Writers today talk about possibly running short of diesel and jet fuel in a few weeks or months. Clearly, if a population center is at a location where there are both oil wells and refineries for the oil from those wells, the area has a better chance of having fuel than an island in the middle of the Pacific with nothing to sell other than tourism. Thus, Houston, Texas, will likely have fuel, even when models suggest there will be shortfalls in many places.
Often writers concerned about resource shortages talk about the core and the periphery. The core needs to be near whatever source of energy is available that can be used to help grow crops and transport goods. At this point, oil is the fuel that is closest to filling this need. Electricity is a nice-to-have, and it can provide services like refrigeration for food. But it is not good for paving roads or building bridges. So, it can only add to the mix, not substitute completely for oil. Slave labor is the closest substitute for oil that the world has discovered. We would rather not go back to using such an approach.
[7] I am concerned that a major downward economic step will be necessary in the upcoming months and years, but I am hopeful that the meeting between President Trump and President Xi on May 14-15 can help smooth the way.
We are at a point at which it is clear that the current organization of the global economy is not working. I hope that the meeting between Trump and Xi will help put an end to fighting in the Middle East. I also hope it will help pave the way for a new path forward.
I expect that the path ahead will be a difficult one, both for the people in the Americas and the people in the World ex Americas. While the US has considerable energy supplies, it lacks manufacturing capability for many everyday goods. The US is also lacking in many critical minerals, especially those used in making high-tech products. With its high wages, it will need extremely high prices, unless processes can be made very efficient.
The World ex Americas may have an even more difficult step down. Its oil supply was already more stretched before the Iran War. Its overpopulation problem seems to be worse than that of the Americas. The World ex Americas is more directly affected by the damage done in the Middle East and the resulting loss of oil supply. And there seem to be many groups looking for war, even if the US leaves.
Let’s all keep our fingers crossed that the upcoming meeting will have a beneficial effect, both in the short term and in working toward a longer-term solution.
Not enough to go around. From the WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/ai-data-centers-power-competition-steel-48a17dbd
AI Data Centers Have Been Great for the Steel Industry. Now, a Power Crisis Looms.
Steelmakers warn of competition for electricity from their newest big customer
The American steel industry is reaping the benefits of the AI data-center construction boom. But now, steelmakers are warning of a high-stakes competition with their data-center customers for a commodity they both require: electricity.
Data centers’ insatiable demand for electricity is driving up power costs for steel companies by tens of millions of dollars a year and threatening the companies’ operations, according to a new report from the Steel Manufacturers Association.
The Ouroboros Bubble.
Figueres and colleagues argue that, if global warming is to be limited to between 1.5C and 2C by 2100, global emissions must peak before 2020 and then begin to rapidly decline.
why is this sentence important it explains just how much time we have left before we have run out of oil so the timeline is pointing to collapse around now and dropping to zero around 2030.
Tell that to the other about 9 billion souls that require fossil fuel energy to survive on this planet, adonis…looking in the rear view mirror…like Norm has pointed out, people will be fighting over what’s still can be consumed.
We’re in a slow motion train wreck now, gaining speed.
P.S. I no longer even address the issue any longer,
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/this-civilization-is-not-interested-in-saving-itself-275d1ccf005a
This Civilization Is Not Interested in Saving Itself
The civilization has little ability to save itself.
this is a brilliant article mike, along exactly those lines, that capitalism must inevitably consume its own capital…
https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/06/23/catabolic-capitalism-profiting-from-collapse/
When I wrote the End of More in 2013, it was the subject of much mirth on OFW, particularly among the flat earth and fakeaholic fraternity…I hoped it wouldnt come true in my lifetime—but i guess I’ve outlived my use by date.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-More-resources-humankind-unsustainable-ebook/dp/B00D0ADPFY
Russia. Situation seems stable at the pump locally, which is the first time in 2 weeks where I have not seen it deteriorating. I am mildly encouraged by the sudden appearance of the fuel crisis in russian news. I was very worried because there was no mention anywhere of the problem which means you are getting fucked bad. Russian people also noticed that and drew comparisons to the 1990s.
In fact yesterday there were 3 articles on it on dzen.ru (yandex news portal). All about the fuel crisis and Putin’s initiatives to quell it, with a stress on the impact on businesses. I yandexed articles on the fuel crisis and indeed there was one on June 24 (which I did not see) and those three in the last 24. so this is now in the open and also I was not imagining things. RIA and RT said nothing during the crisis for example.
This was also true because the government (Moscow) did call me on Friday at 18 and asked me how many tons of diesel I needed. I tried to explain them my situation and they were not interested and hung up. My mechanic has tried to call them today and it is always busy, meaning they are really trying to contact everyone.
So they are doing something. A lot of demand has been destroyed. The tourists are gone. No one is going to buy heavy equipment in the current climate. I think they are very aware of the possibility of losing the war economically now.
Thanks for filling the update.
I also noticed in their msm narratives – admitting NOW repairs on these oil installations to be taking longer at least 6months or more..
Yes, if say only ~6x of the most venal NATO members produce each 50k drones (think of it as min. threshold) per year and sent it eastwards, that’s level of saturation RU can’t cope with, unless some anti drone EM “net” on the vast borders or something similar of repellent is dense enough and ready by that time, which likely won’t be..
Aka the nasty blow-back of past 10+ yrs of ~soft approach towards “partners”.
New proverbs:
‘Give your enemy enough rope and he’ll say thanks, and hang you with it’;.
‘Turn both cheeks to your enemy, and get sodomised’…….
Good luck, drb: refreshing to have reliable news, a one tires of all the corrupt and biased pundits.
For the past few days in our little London suburb, there has been no semi-skimmed milk at the Tesco Express store. OK, so I take the full cream version – it’s the same price, and drinking only semi-skimmed is just an old habit that has become meaningless to me. But what is the cause behind this?
Thanks for the update.
What if Everyone Blocked Anyone They Disagree With?
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/what-if-everyone-blocked-anyone-they
Why blocking people on social media won’t improve the quality of the conversation
How social media may collapse into a constellation of isolated subgroups.
The role of bots in the discussion on social media.
Why pasting links into social media posts is useless.
Why the current social media platforms may be destined to collapse.
The political consequences of all that.
The AI Takeover Has Arrived
…but it looks completely different from what we imagined
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-ai-takeover-has-arrived
All this great AI adoption will achieve is two things: a reduction in workforce—and therefore consumption—and a reduction of prices. Both of them anathema to capitalism.
But if the debt bubble can be infinite, they might work.
FALSE FLAG GEO-TERRORISM: Let’s talk about that extremely rare “earthquake doublet” in Venezuela.
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2026/06/28/false-flag-geo-terrorism-lets-talk-about-that-extremely-rare-earthquake-doublet-in-venezuela/#more-415510
WITHIN A FEW years, artificial intelligence will displace a significant portion of the world’s highly paid knowledge workers. Flows into retirement investment accounts will turn net-negative: workers won’t just stop paying in, they will need to withdraw funds.
These outflows will come largely from passive investment funds, particularly S&P 500 index trackers. The price impact will not be evenly distributed. The AI “mega-caps”, such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon, are also the names whose valuations have been most dependent on mechanical passive inflows as the marginal buyer. The companies powering the AI revolution are likely to suffer the largest price drops.
https://archive.ph/TYafb
Every aspect of contemporary life depends upon an enormous web of interconnected systems that must operate continuously, every second of every day, without significant interruption. The moment one of these systems fails on a sufficiently large scale, the others begin to unravel with astonishing speed.
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2026/06/28/the-day-the-lights-never-came-back-how-a-single-moment-could-push-modern-civilization-to-the-brink/#more-415474
“ Everybody’s already talking about bypassing Hormuz, but at the end of the
8:35 day, you either get it out through the Gulf, the Red Sea, or the Mediterranean.
8:40 Now once you look at that then you can see why does Lebanon matter? Lebanon matters because of the coast on the
8:47 Mediterranean. Why does Hezbollah matter? They matter because of the coast in Lebanon. So you
8:54 can see right away that this is part of a power uh uh politics framework that’s
9:00 going forward. And this is why they’re really um uh sticking to these uh uh
9:08 these these these elements here and it’s not just a secondary issue . . . “?
There is always a time lag . Helium shortage effects are showing up now as all smartphones ,computers , video boxes , etc become expensive worldwide . Here is the India price tracker .
https://gadgets.beebom.com/guides/india-smartphone-price-hike-roundup
$1= Rs 100 so it is easy to calculate the dollar increase .
Canadian onshore oil inventories approaching operational minimums as North American refineries are running hard and exports siay strong!
With commercial crude buffers now drained, only SPR’s and higher production can fill the current global oil under-supply and thirst for barrels.
https://x.com/WhiteTundraSG/status/2071306702688022803/photo/1
Fuel Crisis Forces Russia to Seek Gasoline Imports from India .
https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/fuel-crisis-forces-russia-to-seek-gasoline-imports-from-india-2026-6-24-40/
Something like 92-93% of all open oil futures contracts are short right now. Truly an epic amount of short interest in oil futures at the moment.
Also means the odds for a truly epic short squeeze are pretty high. Just saying.
Finance bros / TPTB just change the rules whenever it suits them. The Fed or Treasury could be naked shorting to keep prices down. Then when it comes time to deliver physical, if the market goes against them (no deal gets done), they just declare the market closed or contracts void, force majeure, national security, whatever. Head we win, tails you lose. When national security / war is concerned, there are no rules and anything can be justified.
I wonder that too but how do you keep “trust “ if one team is manipulating everything. At some point it is going to be like the movie margin call where one big player moves first
cope
Hints of free passage through Hormuz from US officials..
—
The latest: “We decided to stop all the kinetic activity,” a senior U.S. official tells Axios, using the military’s term for strikes and other attacks.
A second U.S. official tells Axios both sides will stand down “for now” and that “vessels can move freely” as technical talks are set to continue.
Both U.S. officials and a third source with knowledge confirmed Tuesday’s planned meeting.
—
https://www.axios.com/2026/06/28/us-and-iran-agree-to-halt-strikes-and-meet-this-week-us-official-says
Middle East wars are now scheduled from 9pm Friday to 10.30pm Sunday (GMT). That’s it. Fighting outside designed non-market hours isn’t allowed.
Songs to get us into the mood for the next war
No.1
Rumors of War
Composed and performed by June Tabor
https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=r4QnjU_ziT4&list=PLHlOReVBvEvjQN5JpYFjOEcKJG21xkmkh
There were soldiers marching on the common today
They were there again this evening
They paced up and down like sea birds on the ground
Before the storm clouds gathered
I must buy whatever tinned food is left on the shelves
They are testing the air raid sirens
They’ve filled up the blood banks and emptied the beds
At the hospital and the asylum
I saw a man build a shelter in his garden today
As we stood there idly chatting
He said “no, no I don’t think war will come”
Yet still he carried on digging
Everything in my life that I love
Could be swept away without warning
Yet the birds still sing and the church bells ring
And the sun came up this morning
Life goes on as it did before
As the country drifts slowly to war
What can I say.
I’m hopelessly conventional.
https://youtu.be/apK2jCrfnsk?si=Qph-8rGM9wgsGf5A
I think they should play this one at military recruitment centers to let the kids know what they might be getting into.
Goddamn coward, get your ass out of that trench
Move, move, move, move, move
Get out of here, oh, fuck
We’re all fucking trapped here, we’re all fucking trapped here
I can’t remember anything
Can’t tell if this is true or a dream
Deep down inside, I feel the scream
This terrible silence stops me
Now that the war is through with me
I’m waking up, I cannot see
That there’s not much left of me
Nothing is real but pain now
Hold my breath as I wish for death
Oh, please, God, wake me
Back in the womb, it’s much too real
In pumps life that I must feel
But can’t look forward to reveal
Look to the time when I’ll live
Fed through the tube that sticks in me
Just like a wartime novelty
Tied to machines that make me be
Cut this life off from me
Hold my breath as I wish for death
Oh, please, God, wake me
Now the world is gone, I’m just one
Oh, God, help me
Hold my breath as I wish for death
Oh, please, God, help me
Darkness, imprisoning me
All that I see, absolute horror
I cannot live, I cannot die
Trapped in myself, body my holding cell
Landmine has taken my sight
Taken my speech, taken my hearing
Taken my arms, taken my legs
Taken my soul, left me with life in Hell
My choice would be the song from the Great War, which the generals were not great fans of:
‘Do you know where the old battalion is?
Do you know where the old battalion is?
I’ve seen them, I’ve seen them:
Hanging on the old barbed wire!
‘Hanging on the old barbed wire!’
Robert Graves:
‘For the boys who died in the trenches,
Who fought with no hate and no rant;
We left them laid out on their pallets of mud,
Low down with the worm and the ant’.
Verses which he chose to recite in an interview on Spanish TV, given late in his life. He sang the song, too.
‘
Posted this gothic war song by the legendary Scott Walker years ago but sorry gotta do it again:
Verse 1]
“A moving aria for a vanishing style of mind”
“A noble debut, tackling vertiginous demands”
“Has absence ever sounded so eloquent, so sad? I doubt it”
[Refrain]
With an arm across the torso
Face on the nails
With an arm across the torso
Face on the pale monkey nails
[Verse 2]
“Touching the shattered lives it unearths”
“A nocturne filled with glorious ideas”
“A chilling exploration of erotic consumption”
[Refrain]
With an arm across the torso
Face on the nails
With an arm across the torso
Face on the pale monkey nails
[Bridge]
Cossacks are charging in
Charging into fields of white roses
Cossacks are charging in
Charging into fields of white roses
“That’s a nice suit”
“That’s a swanky suit”
“Been a pope like no other”
“I’m looking for a good cowboy”
[Verse 3]
“A rare outcry makes you lead a larger life”
“You could easily picture this in the current top ten”
“Medieval savagery, calculated cruelty”
It’s hard to pick the worst moment
It’s hard to pick the worst moment
[Refrain]
With an arm across the torso
Face on the nails
With an arm across the torso
Face on the pale monkey nails
https://youtu.be/FbpBxXEPQow
Lets ease up the pressure, it’s relatively easy to set them apart, they are only two of them actually, hence we can celebrate for a moment.
Mr. Bob Dobolina:
wait for the chorus (h)ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Bku7gXlkoo
Mr. Bob “Omega” Blob:
“last” tropical night just lapsed as he departed down there over Strait of Gibraltar, hot afro-air now stayz put in Morocco and Algeria, ..
Well, Del and the boys do have excellent rhythm.
But they don’t have their baseball caps on straight.
Yes, that reminds me, the US were leaders in affordable polar parkas, but since ~1970s it was all “3rd world” imported anywayz. So, today, get it from Scandinavia proper instead? UP: where is Fjällräven made? · Vietnam · China · Estonia · Lithuania.
I have a pair of Harkila hunting trousers which have taken considerable abuse, superb cloth and stitching. Some 15 years old.
I hope when I buy another pair they will be of the same standard. But then I probably don’t have 15 years to go myself!
My Barbour heavy-weight waxed cotton coat is still going strong after some 40 years, from the old truly Made in England days, before they became fashionable and flimsier.
Thanks. There is for example this thread discussing their various categories of products with varied quality.. also some items no-longer made in Europe.
https://www.thestalkingdirectory.co.uk/threads/harkila-advice.247912/
In addition there are also some DE/AUT/IT brands in this “hunting” segment to explore.. the quality stuff more expensive.. It depends on your task, say if priority is protecting legs in spiky bush – then getting the best trousers etc., also the question of degree of movement per various material used and so on.. (quick walking as in grass trimming vs mere ATV rides, .. )
On their harkila.com eshop they have got hunting (series) pants and jacket listed with detailed pics, evidently showing it’s from some sort of “rip-stop” rectangular material, yet NOT mentioning this very fact in the spec sheet at all ?
Mentioning because it’s unusual in this segment.. have some very old surplus US combat rip stop and it’s great for thorny bushes..
Call me racist but del wuz just monkee-ing around:
zilch. Mr bobalina Mr Bob dobalina
Zilch. China clipper calling Alameda.
Iran. Nevermind the furthermore the plea is self-defense.
That last line minus my inclusion of Iran is the last line from the musical Oklahoma! Self-referential homo industrialis. Everybody sampling everybody. Nobody sampling worse right now than kulm.
https://youtu.be/OedfVXal_Y8
If not apparent from the context, it was meant merely as festivity (rhyme) on the occasion of “Mr.” Omega-blob no longer sending ~45C hot air to Europe proper..
It was a horror to live through last week+, perhaps hard to relate-translate over the ocean to the calm existence in PCFNW.. ; only fraction 1/5th ? of Europeans using air-con.. as usually not necessary..
PS I’m not regular listener to this genre – stuff
Your comment was an excellent piece of writing and your song choice was a great alt-rap blast from the past of my 90s youth, thank you. I never did have me a North Face down parka though. It would’ve got stolen right off.my back for sure. My parents would have never spent that much on my jacket anyhowand I never would’ve asked for it because that would be asking for trouble as the lone white boy. I certainly wasn’t knocking del for sampling the monkees, or the monkees from sampling Oklahoma! The only sampling I was knocking was kulm’s crooked ass sample.
That’s how culture – civilization rolls, it gets exhausted after several innings.
Basically, the protracted long tail peak of European culture arrived around mid 1980s – that’s 40+ yrs ago. Prime example the following, although they obviously also play around (here) with “re-mixing” some motives from various subculture domains, but the final synthesis is new art, necessarily “self loathing”..
(h)ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zWlnzFXcKY&list=RD1zWlnzFXcKY&start_radio=1
note: there is also ~live TV version ( better vocal audio ) but that would be perhaps beyond expressive for OFW audience to grasp hah..
PS and no, that true pervert Pres. Micron did not approve this message
Irans development and use of Shahed drones was revolutionary. Their low cost and tactics in their use will be primary to all modern battlefields.
For a while.
Russia acquired shahed drones copied them improved them. Ukraine was forced to find a solution. It wasn’t patriots at $2m apiece. The drone they developed is extremely is extremely effective. Cost is in between $5k and $15;k. Three man teams operate them. Two pilots like most fighter jets flying navigation and weapons tasks do oded between them.
These are being manufactured as.fast as logistics allow. Any not needed are sold to the gulf monarch nations as fast as possible. They are training training operators in the meantime Ukrainian operators.
During the Iran war Iran hit what they wished with shaheds. 95 percent of the damage was Shahed not ballistic missiles.
Every day that passes Iran loses more of that leverage. Every day that passes the possibility that gulf infrastructure can be successfully defended grows leaps and bounds. The complete offensive air dominance for soft infrastructure targets Iran welded during the war is over. That was Irans price paid for entering into a ceasefire.
When you hear large percentage of successful intercepts in the gulfnow it’s true and this is why. Soon to VLCc. The toll price buys 200 of these. Ballistic missiles not near as effective on moving targets. Ships transiting are still fish in barrel but the fish can stick a piece of rebar in the gun shooting at them now.
Time cuts two ways in war. All parties are rearming with new technology and planning and tactics to match.
Is return to the war one inevitable? I hope not. The assured destruction of the gulf infrastructure is becoming less inevitable. As that radically fades do does that deterrent making the Hormuz strategic weapon all the more critical.
The next revolution is Chinese kit entering.
Drones are not the air defense of the future drones are the air defense of now.
Ukraines time in the sun smashing Russian infrastructure will end also
https://youtu.be/okQlmZJkbBk?si=MVsbb41y5EFaj4vM
“Ships transiting are still fish in barrel but the fish can stick a piece of rebar in the gun shooting at them now.”
Interesting! Weapons change awfully quickly!
Thanks dog!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqOjWz-3VPo
AMERICA HAS 2 WEEKS OF OIL LEFT, IRAN KNOWS IT – w/ Chris Martenson (11:01)
25,000 views Jun 28, 2026
What I will be saying is quite different.
Well, now I’m curious.
Sock it to us Gail!
I can’t wait.
Doom data dance off.
Today is the anniversary of the Sarajevo shootings, where a transvestite from a stupid country killed a rather unimportant prince with the aid of a driver from another stupid country.
Such crime was multiplied by idiots like Joe Gallieni, another italian who sent lots of French to their deaths, and Charles “Chucky” Fitzclarence whose crimes I have documented here quite often.
I actually approve Edpel’s idea of the Hand concentrating everything into the Elites’ hands and laving nothing, nada, zip to the people .
However they were closer to that goal in 1914 than 2026, with most of the world’s resources still untapped, unstead of mostly consumed by peoples who had no business being born to begin with, and a slum city, which would still be called Batavia if the Americans did not bertray the Queen of Holland, is now the largest city on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcyZ70tO9-Q
In 1902 a Frenchman named George Melies thought the tavel to moon was imminent.
Instead we got a dozen stupid countries, which , after 1945, multiplied to more than 100 countries which are basically good for nothing.
In 1912 there were just six countries in Asia (Japan, China[heavily fragmented], Thailand, Persia, Afghanistan and Turkey [all of them only existing as buffer zones between other great powers]) and only one country in Africa, Liberia (for all practical purposes an Amerian protectorate). everywhere else was ruled by a Western Great power or another.
Only now the Hand realized we did not need that many countries. Guess the Hand is quite mentally challenged, having tolerated all these stupid countries wasting resources without doing anything about it for 80 years.
If any individual can be held responsible then Adolf Hitler could certainly be held responsible had he conducted a better war effort then our current reality would be a Nazis world I remember watching one of my favourite shows as a teen-ager called ‘Sliders’ and in episode the main characters go to an alternate reality where America is a Nazi country because the Nazis won WW2.
Actually Dolfie was one of the guys who were fleeing at Gheluvelt when Chucky and his 200 neverdowells from Worcesters ‘did their duty’ (i.e. commit the greatest crime against Western Civilization) so Chucky is also responsible for dolfie.
The primary reason the world ended up like this is by allowing Asia and Africa to escape from the older model , which would not have taken place without Chucky since Asia and Africa would still be significantly less developed, as shown in this clip about Angkor Wat in the 1930s where nobody wore shirts.
https://youtu.be/WWrXlWSJuJo?si=vHIzDA18ZeD11AIu
Asia should never, never, never have been allowed into modern civilization.
When the various European empires were established it was comparatively easy to dominate the natives – although the Brits did have to fight very hard to get control of India, due to the sheer size of the place and number of Indians. They had to use lots of local help, too.
But by the mid-20th c that kind of direct imperial control was simply no longer possible or affordable – the natives were too restless, better-armed and no longer in awe of Europeans – and the move was made to covert influence, with the occasional armed intervention, and all those sovereign states sprang up.
Nor, after WW2, did the European working classes fancy being shipped out to some dreadful place to be shot at, stabbed and boiled alive by the heat. It was too comfy at home. Western Empire had had its day.
With great war ending differently ww2 would have gone in the war not favorable to Asians and Africans.
Please, repeat all of that to MG, Kulm…
Czechia ( and by corollary Slovakia) has no business existing.
The MoU was left vague because it was the only thing that allowed signature. Then both parties proceeded with THEIR understanding that was left undefined by the MoU.
Article 1
“Cessation of hostilities” is not “withdrawal of troops”.
Article 5
“Araingments for safe passage” is not “shall have administrative control”
The language modeling tool has increasing problems for humanity. Humanity becomes increasingly invested that the models it creates are reality not models. Humanity becomes increasingly unable to have a sense of perspective outside of the models created by the language tool even as it creates severe dysfunction. It’s not the tools problem. It’s the exclusive use of the tool and investment in same that is the problem.
One of the techniques Korzybski advocated to have a understanding of the insanity (not insanity) of language was to to be comfortable picking apart. At the lowest level pick words apart.v what is a cat? A creature. What is a creature? A animal? What is a animal? A cat. Doing the round robin is healthy. It allows users of the language tool to perceive it is a model. The comfortableness allows the reality that the model is not the thing to be perceived.
Both people and nations are increasingly unwilling to define and separate models into its pieces. Separating a model into its pieces is regarded as a attack of the person or the nation because they believe they are the model. Attempts to separate models into components is regarded as a attempt to destroy the model because people are not comfortable doing so. Often any attempt to do so is met with a emotional creation in response often anger. The disassembly is perceived as invasive because of the lack of comfortability. The lack of comfortability allows rigid investment and association with the model. Disassembly is regarded as demeaning what being what a human is. The ability to stand for something is given value and any attempt at health disassembly is regarded as destroying value. Cognitive dissonance is avoided at all cost.
When large language tool model creation left whole there commonality can not be perceived. They can only be perceived as fundamentally in conflict. War whether actual or philosophical is the result. Only comfortability with separating into components allows healthy commonality. Commonality allows bigger issues even existential issues to find solutions. This can be regarded like physical exercise benefit where the body is not allowed to atrophy.
My perception is the lack of comfortability is accelerating and with that acceleration comes increasing dysfunction in human problem solving capabilities. Instead teaming of various large models in conflict adoption is witnessed and no deviation is allowed. While the models are in conflict there components and the practice of identification with large models is identical. The practice and emotional content of the competing models is identical. Often this is used for manipulation that could be perceived if people were comfortable evaluating the language tool that constitutes their modeling capabilities.
Yes, yes, yes, Glasshopper!
The models, analogies, or words we employ represent an amazing use of our cognitive powers, but they are merely a description of a thing—not the thing itself.
We are back to that finger pointing at the moon—which is another analogy.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/iAoLN3hnyOQ
This is an absolute sh*tshow
– ~11k seafarers & 7-800 ships trapped in the Gulf at the peak
– ~115 vessels & ~2,500 seafarers evacuated in 3.5 days
– 14 mariners killed so far: 11 by Iran, 3 by the US
– Missiles & drones flying over ships for 30-40 min stretches
– No clear idea if they’d be stuck 3 days or 3 months
On paper the strait is open. In practice it’s open on Iran’s terms, with ships trying to sneak through off AIS.
Iran’s Supreme Leader urges judiciary to pursue war-related crimes against Trump and Nethanyayu . It is meaningless but can be used as an excuse for escalation . Iran will use all means to control SoH .
https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202606274036
Spartan
3h
A general article from The Honest Wizard that mostly doesn’t offer much new information, although it does attempt to outline what will happen with Iran and the mess in the Middle East:
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-big-picture
Summary of the main idea: Plan A, which was to change the Iranian regime to gain control of all the world’s oil, and Plan B, which was to devastate Iran, have failed. Therefore, they move on to Plan C, which is that if the world oil market cannot be controlled by controlling production, then uncontrolled production will be eliminated. Therefore, there will be no restoration of the status quo; it will all be a charade, one step forward, one step back… a few tankers will be allowed through, but little else… until Plan A can be attempted again. And along the way, they will increase energy costs in Asia, just as happened in Europe when the Russian gas supply was cut off.
On paper, this will bring factories back to the US. But ultimately, it won’t work because the US no longer has the necessary conditions (human resources and the determination of its people) to become the world’s factory again, as it was eight decades ago. US political leaders are out of touch with reality.
Copy/paste from Quark
NATO is going to go in and open Hormuz. Timeline, likely within next two months. I know this probably clashes with the idea Europe won’t take part in any such thing. But they will.
And there will be troops on the ground. In large numbers.
I hear you need a lot of AC for that. Also I recommend that in the drone era ground invasions in desert places not be attempted.
drd,
I’m aware of all the challenges involved with such an endeavor. But i also have a little inside info. That pertains to what they order.
NATO is getting ready for a ground war. If it’s not IRAN then it’s Russia. Which do you think is more likely?
I’m not saying it’s the smart thing to do. I’m not saying i agree with it. I’m just saying it’s likely to happen.
Lebanon and Palestine?
I agree on the build up, as I’ve seen reports of heavy restocking(took note after your comment a month or so ago).
We need to hear about as many of these changes as we can, because the planning is the system.
“A plan is never a single, static document. It is a hierarchy and a network of documents. In fact, it is far more accurate to discard the noun altogether: rather than looking for a finalized “plan,” we must observe the continuous process of planning”
https://worldlinesletter.substack.com/p/planning-not-masterplans?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Gail, what year did you do your presentation for the navy?
In December 2009, I participated in what I think was called a colloquium (many presenters from many fields) in the US Naval War College in Rhode Island.
They wanted to know what problems the navy should anticipate in the future.
The person who invited me was
James P. Wisecup
Rear Admiral, USN
Thanks, I was wondering if it was before 2014(2013 even).
CFR’s America’s Energy Resurgence” (2013)
The Naval Postgraduate School “Reverse Oil Weapon” (energy as a domain of naval warfare). (2014?)
Brookings’ “Fueling a New Disorder” (2014)
Army War College “Energy as a Strategic Weapon” (2015)
They followed the handbook(a fitting name) mentioned in the article.
HHH if that is true then the only way that plan makes any military sense to me is to lead with a careful EMP attack ahead of the invasion in order to minimize ME oil and gas production destruction.
Obviously it doesn’t fit my expectations so I’ll have to wait to believe it until when I see it.
HHH, my guess is that the orders that you are seeing coming through are for handling unrest due to economic collapse. Does that possibility make any sense based on what you’re seeing or does your info pattern better with foreign ground invasions?
reante,
3 times the amount of combat tourniquets were order than in the first 3-4 weeks of the start of the Ukraine war.
That is just one item. I can promise you these aren’t meant to sit in some warehouse collecting dust.
Thanks, interesting info and interesting new scenario to consider and keep in mind. Please do keep us updated on any further developments you see.
Hormuz will not be touched because the elders are using it to ration oil for the world if anything war will probably happen in the UK as in a civil war between immigrants and native population or even in different parts of Europe between immigrants and the native population .
If NATO tries to invaded Iran’s Gulf Coast in summer, it is likely to make Gallipoli, Normandy, and Iwo Jima look like a stroll on the beach.
That doesn’t mean NATO wont try, however. If they judge they have no better alternative.
To be, or not to be, that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
And by opposing end them.
NATO going into Ukraine in order to shore things up before the frontline collapses and the Russians walk into Kharkiv and Odessa is another possibility, although I don’t see the point personally. Ukraine is a lost cause for the West.
Interesting! I agree that the US no longer has the necessary conditions to become the factory for the world.
It is not “meaningless” for the Iran to pursue war-related criminal prosecutions. It will perhaps prove futile and is unlikely to result in convictions, but it is very meaningful for and useful to the Iranians, both psychologically and from a strategic perspective. For a start, they can quite legitimately play the victim card and use this as a weapon in future negotiations.
The Iranians are not going to forget that US-Israeli tag team blew up their supreme leader, many of his relatives, dozens of senior officials, and hundreds of schoolgirls in a sneak attack as nasty and viscous as anything done at Pearl Harbor, and if I know the Iranians, they have long memories, they bear grudges, and they will continue to seek revenge, either in the form of legal justice or in some other way.
If the Iranian leadership is working for the Hand, or the Chabad, or the Bankers, or some other shadowy puppeteers, they will do whatever they are told, but if they are their own man, I would expect them to try to take full advantage of the chokehold they currently have on the world economy.
An intriguing prospect: Are the Americans and the Iranians in some way cooperating to try to raise the price of oil and limit its distribution? Could they actually be working together on this to their mutual advantage despite being real enemies and strategic adversaries?
The Iranian exiles I know – all amiable, fun-loving, hard-working respectable citizens – certainly come over all funny when talking about the punishments they’d like to inflict on the mullahs and the military in Iran: hanging from cranes, being dragging through the streets, clubbed to death, etc.
I would not expect their counterparts in Iran to forgive or forget recent events, also being cowardly murderers and torturers themselves.
My Iranian friends match yours. I don’t know a single one who is a fan of the current regime.
But the Shah’s regime also had plenty of murderers and torturers in it. I remember reading Amnesty International newsletters back in the day and some of the stories were horrendous.
I suppose we can hope that the next Iranian government will be run by people who are a little less violent and sadistic?
Absolutely Iran and the US are cooperating under the non-public Degrowth Agenda. It’s to their mutual advantage insofar as we can consider engineered collapse more advantageous than organic, chaotic, fast collapse. Negative advantage.
A rising tide floats all boats in the harbour that sits within the engineered breakwater. When the tide goes out, however, breakwaters can often have the unintended consequence of creating riptides that’ll suck you out to sea. When the tide is about to suck out on civilization like a tsunami is coming its way, the mother of all riptides forms at the mouth of the breakwater that threatens to suck everyone out as they try to go ashore. Ideally in that moment the breakwater would collapse — the harbor would cease to exist — such that the suck would be distributed. Welcome to the BNS that blows up the seawall in service of negative advantage.
Strange world we live in!
HHH I will believe it when I see it. Right now I don’t believe it. Whatever you have heard can easily be false information. It’s well known tactics to spread lies and the current administration will tell you it’s not raining when it dumping rain on your head! The military has been preparing for the wrong type of war just like the French and the Maginot Line. Two months to open the strait would be too late. China doesn’t have two months left of reserves; I would not be surprised if they don’t start buying oil again and restricting their reserves until the price rises again then sell reserves at $100 , rinse and repeat.
HHH . Posturing . Iraq war 2 was planned out , built up over a period of 7 months involving 70,000 personnel . This was a land based invasion via KSA . This is not possible as the only land based invasion is via Iraq . Not going to happen . Amphibious or air based invasion would be suicidal . Look at the results of the mission to retrieve uranium .
Nato in Europe is a joke . No compatibility of arms, ammunition and personnel . How is the Lithuanian soldier understand his French commander ?
Yes , extreme force which can be EMP , nuclear or whatsoever but conventional is a — No .
P.S : This is logical thinking but then we have MoH at the top .
[ Russians like it hot, another night, another refinery on fire.. ]
This time on the menu: ” The Slavyansk refinery is one of southern Russia’s largest oil-processing enterprises. It produces aviation kerosene, vacuum gas oil, … ”
” The Slavyansk-on-Kuban oil refinery with a 5 million ton per year capacity has been hit by Ukraine, with locals saying it was a FP-5 … ”
Corporate pre-war:
“Slavyansk ECO – Славянск Эко slaveco.ru › …
We Refine 4 Mln Tons of Oil Per Year. Since 2011, we have nearly tripled production volumes. · Highest Quality Standards and Advanced Technologies.”
..
.
vid: (h)ttps://www.youtube.com/shorts/9bJTUxHIl4k
(h)ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHtCPvAW1ZQ
/second one incl. maps and sat pic/
#1 Epic fail – not properly guarded key facility adjacent to the greater Crimean realm, where ought to be expected..
#2 These daily oil-target attacks – likely part of pre-announced exalted one month campaign prior to important NATO meeting in Turkey, where %% / %%% $B will be earmarked. So the tempo of strikes could tame off after-wards a bit or NOT!
Oh, dear!
“Nate Hagens reposted
Jaynit
Charlie Munger spent 50 years studying why intelligent people make catastrophically stupid decisions. It is the most useful thing I have ever watched:
1. Incentives are more powerful than anyone thinks. Munger says he has been in the top 5% of his age cohort his entire life in understanding the power of incentives and he has still underestimated it every single year. Federal Express could not get their night shift to work efficiently until someone realized they were paying by the hour. They switched to paying by the shift. The problem disappeared immediately.
2. People rationalise terrible behavior when their incentives point that way, and they do not even know they are doing it. A doctor in Nebraska was removing perfectly healthy gallbladders for years. When Munger asked an old colleague whether the doctor knew he was harming patients, the answer was no. he genuinely believed the gallbladder was the source of all medical evil and that removing it was an act of love. That is incentive-caused bias at its most extreme.
3. Psychological denial is real, and it is not just for weak people. A family friend’s son flew off a carrier in the North Atlantic and never came back. His mother, a completely sane woman, simply never believed he was dead. Reality was too painful, so she distorted it until it was bearable. Munger says we all do this to some extent, and it causes terrible problems.
4. Consistency and commitment tendency are one of the most powerful forces in the human mind. Once you have stated a position publicly, you are psychologically locked into it. Max Planck said the really important new physics was never accepted by the old guard. A new guard came along that was less brain blocked by its previous conclusions. If this happened to the deans of physics, Munger says, imagine what it does to ordinary people.
5. The Chinese brainwashing system used on prisoners of war worked better than torture. They did not start with big demands. They maneuvered people into making tiny little commitments and declarations and slowly built from there. The same mechanism operates in every cult, every sales system, and every ideology that gets deeply embedded in people’s heads.
6. Pavlovian association shapes buying behavior at a level most people never consciously process. Munger estimates three quarters of all advertising works on pure Pavlov. Coca-Cola does not want to be associated with funerals. They want to be associated with the Olympics, wonderful music, heroics. The association itself changes how people feel about the product at a subconscious level. Raising the price of a product can actually increase its market share because price and quality are associated in the human mind, and people use price as a signal of value.
7. Persian messenger syndrome is alive and running every major organization. The Persians killed the messenger who brought bad news. Bill Paley in his last 20 years, did not hear one thing he did not want to hear. everyone around him knew bringing bad news was dangerous. The result was that one of the most powerful men in media made terrible decisions for two decades because reality never reached him.
8. Social proof causes otherwise intelligent people to follow each other off cliffs. When one oil company bought a fertilizer company in the 1970s, practically every other major oil company rushed out and did the same. There was no rational reason for oil companies to own fertilizer companies. But if Exxon was doing it, it was good enough for Mobil. Every single acquisition was a disaster.
9. The efficient market theory persisted in academia for decades despite Berkshire Hathaway existing as a living contradiction. One economist kept adding sigmas to explain away the anomaly. two sigma, then three, then four, eventually six sigma. Munger’s observation: It is better to add a sigma than change a theory just because the evidence comes in differently. That economist later went into money management himself and sank like a stone.
10. Contrast bias warps perception constantly and invisibly. Put your hand in hot water, then room temperature water. It feels cold. Put your hand in cold water, then room temperature water. It feels hot. same bucket. The human sensory apparatus has no absolute scale, only a contrast scale. Real estate agents exploit this deliberately. They show you two overpriced, awful houses first, then take you to a merely overpriced house, and it feels like a bargain.
11. The frog in slowly heating water is the business version of contrast bias. If something bad comes to you in small pieces, you are likely to miss it entirely. Munger says he has known many high-powered brilliant businessmen who were destroyed this way. not because they were stupid but because each incremental change was too small to trigger alarm. The contrast was never large enough to notice.
12. Authority bias is so powerful it can make trained professionals watch a plane crash. In flight simulator experiments, when the pilot, the authority figure, does something that any trained co-pilot knows will crash the plane, 25% of the time, the co-pilot sits there and lets it crash anyway. They have been trained to know better. The authority relationship overrides the training.
13. Deprivation super reaction syndrome explains why people go insane over small losses. Munger’s neighbor had a 180 degree view of the harbor. the neighbor put in a pine tree about 3 feet high that turned it into a 179 and three-quarter degree view. They had a blood feud that went on for years. The New Coke disaster is the corporate version. Coca-Cola told customers they were changing a flavor and triggered a deprival super reaction so powerful that Pepsi was weeks away from releasing old Coke in a Pepsi bottle. smart engineers. brilliant lawyers. armies of psychologists. All missed it.
14. Envy and jealousy are far more powerful than greed and almost entirely absent from psychology textbooks. Munger says Warren Buffett has said half a dozen times that it is not greed that drives the world but envy. In a thousand-page psychology textbook, the index entry for envy and jealousy is blank. One of the most powerful forces in human behavior and academia essentially ignores it.
15. Gambling addiction is not explained by variable reinforcement alone. Skinner thought he had fully explained gambling by showing that variable reward schedules pound in behavior more powerfully than fixed ones. But the people who design modern slot machines know things Skinner did not. Lotteries where you pick your own number get far more play than lotteries where the number is assigned to you. People who commit to a number believe it has more validity because they chose it. Near misses on slot machines trigger deprival super reaction syndrome. It is four or five psychological tendencies working together, not one.
16. The most dangerous situations are when multiple psychological tendencies combine toward the same end at once. Munger calls this the lollapalooza effect. Tupperware parties use four or five tendencies simultaneously. Moonie conversion methods combine multiple tendencies and work extraordinarily well. alcoholics anonymous achieves a 50% no drinking rate when everything else fails because it also combines multiple tendencies toward a constructive end. The Milgram experiment is not just about obedience. it involves authority bias, consistency and commitment tendency, and contrast effects all working together. That combination turns human brains into mush.
17. Boards of directors are structurally designed to fail as corrective mechanisms. The top executive is the authority figure. He is doing something questionable. You look around, and nobody else is objecting, which is social proof that it is fine. He flies you around in the corporate jet and raises your director fees every year, which triggers reciprocation tendency. Munger’s rule: boards only act when the behavior gets so bad it starts making them look foolish or threatens legal liability. That is the only forcing function that reliably works.
18. John Goodfriend of Salomon Brothers destroyed his career and reputation because he did not fire a trusted employee who had lied to the government. Every psychological tendency pointed toward keeping the man. He was a close colleague. His wife was known. He was part of a group that had made over a billion dollars for the firm. He said he had never done it before and would never do it again. Goodfriend looked into his eyes and believed him. The man did it again. The lesson: everyone who gets caught embezzling says they have never done it before and will never do it again. That is what they all say.
19. Darwin avoided confirmation bias by deliberately seeking out disconfirming evidence. Munger says Darwin was not especially smart by ordinary standards of human acuity. Yet he is buried in Westminster Abbey. Munger studied how Darwin worked and realized he had psychological tricks worth learning. Darwin always paid extra attention to evidence that contradicted his theories. Munger started doing the same and credits it as one of the most important intellectual habits of his life.
20. Why is the most important word in communication? Carl Braun designed oil refineries with spectacular skill, and you got fired in his company if you wrote a communication without explaining why. not just who, what, where, and when, but why. Braun knew that in a complex system where things can blow up, a communication system that always explains the reason behind an instruction works dramatically better than one that does not. Forstein, the general counsel of Salomon, told Goodfriend on multiple occasions that he had to report the employee’s misconduct. He explained it was the right thing to do. He never explained what would happen to Goodfriend personally if he did not. he failed to use the most powerful tool of persuasion. Goodfriend ignored him. When Goodfriend went down, Forstein went with him.”?
https://x.com/jaynitx/status/2070876887925367160?s=20
Thanks to Dr. John Day for sharing this next video.
It’s about Burmese pythons in the Everglades that grow up to 12 to 19 feet (3.6 to 5.8 meters) long, how they were introduced by people throwing away their pet pythons in the 1980s, took over the swamps and almost eradicated several native species of mammal and bird, defeated all human efforts to control them, and have finally been brought to heal by a coalition of other creatures, led by the coyotes and the raccoons, who have finally learned how to deal with them.
There is a lesson here in how ecosystems can sometimes adapt to invasive species and regain equilibrium after being disturbed.
Warning: This video includes graphic scenes that are not for the squeamish or the ophidiophobic.
I watched it over breakfast, Tim, and it really wasn’t ghastly enough!
I suppose I shall now have to resort to one of those ‘Watch baby eagles eat a live bird brought to them by their mother over 5 hours’ YT nest-cam horrors to satiate my bloodlust.
The Chinese started a 2MW thorium reactor. Next they plan on 10MW to be followed by 100MW.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMejwz1jOaY
Unlike Elon who plans to build a chip factory 100 times larger than any so far starting with no employees, no patent portfolio, no experience.
Add, I noticed CHN plans to manuf EVs with ~first gen mixed (partial) solid state batt next year, 2027. However, the real deal full deployment if ever more as follows:
–
CATL chief: solid-state batteries at ‘level 4 of 9,’ no leap until 2030
electrek.co › 2026/06/25 › catl-solid-state-battery-lev…
2dayz ago: CATL chairman Robin Zeng says solid-state batteries are only at ‘level 4 of 9’ and won’t reach mass production before 2030, cooling industry …
BYD Confirms Solid-State for 2027 and 10,000-Cycle Sodium
1. 3. 2026 · BYD has officially confirmed two major battery developments — solid-state batteries targeting pilot production in 2027, and a new sodium-ion …
–
China’s BYD, SAIC Motor eye EVs with all-solid-state batteries in 2027
kr-asia.com › chinas-byd-saic-motor-eye-evs-with-all…
9. 6. 2026 · Chinese automaker BYD is aiming to install ASSBs in some vehicles around 2027. Originally a mobile phone battery maker, the company now develops …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8PS3-nE12o
Rome left England and numerous raiders moved in and took what they could. The US left and the Muslims and Arabs are taking what they can. When they are numerous they can take the actual land not just sweat shop jobs. In this video they talk about change over 400 years. The same for Germany, France and the low lands. I do not think they homosexual men who rule now will continue to rule as oil driven weapons become no longer available.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-launches-strikes-iran-attack-ship-strait-hormuz-rcna351992
U.S. launches additional Iran strikes as tensions flare up over Hormuz
In a social media post, Trump threatened that “the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist” if it further violated the week-old ceasefire agreement.
One of the first points of the MoU is a cessation of threats. “We will erase your republic” seems like a threat. I think Persians are a proud people who don’t take kindly to threats, but what do I know.
I noticed that. Not good!
Not sounding good but not a return to all out war yet.
https://youtu.be/5MFQXsdsEXE?si=IUtnv-VBhDi8SPVf
Edpel said the Hand has a plan, to put everything to the Elites’ hands and stare the rest.
The perfect time to do so was 2021, when everyone was locked in their homes and no one could go out to mess things up.
They already lost the best timing for it, and now are trying to overturn the tables with overwhelming odds. Old people in the Core will comply. Others, maybe not.
Good point there was for sure some over-all crescendo planned with the bug thing 2019-> onwards, for some reason it did not pan out fully as promised – expected by certain inner faction of theirs. So they pivoted to the war thing lately instead..
The behavioural scientists promised Them that the trauma and conditioning of the lock-downs would send everyone rushing to be injected 2-shots per year in perpetuity once ‘even-more infectious’ Omicron was announced’.
That was clearly the planned gateway to involuntary vaccine ‘passports’, terminal persecution of a minority resisters, and all the rest,
But the Omicron scare flopped everywhere: in the UK, for instance, we learned later only 55% of the population had a third ‘booster’ jab, despite the propaganda making it look as though everyone was having one.
Hence the tactical retreat was sounded, contenting themselves with continuing to inject the elderly, the ‘vulnerable’, and for quite some time the pregnant. 7 million shots still be delivered per year here.
Oh please. If they wanted to depopulate they wouldn’t have had us algorithmically deepthroating the engineered cottage industry of controlled opposition in the first place.
The truth is always two layers deep. As is deep reasoning. There is no way to reliably kill people slowly enough and with adequate autopsic cover so as to not set off the alarm bells with those who haven’t reached the front of the queue yet. Either a poison kills you pretty quickly or your body clears it. And that as also goes for soft-genetic modifications, whether one falsely believes in the spike vaxx official narrative or correctly believes in the tumor exosomes vaxx theory. Either the genetic poisoning kills you or your body clears it. In both cases — chemical poisoning or genetic poisoning — the poison might kill you indirectly from knock-on effects but that’s also not reliably the case.
Frankly I find the ‘failed kill-off’ mythology really gullible, and persistent. Trauma -based programming. Me, the plandemic didn’t traumatize me in the slightest. To me it was a work of art to be analyzed.
My dear Reante, at times like this, you remind me of Sherlock Holmes when he puts his opium pipe away and gets out his violin. What is all so baffling to us Watsons and Lestrades is elementary to you.
Watson once said to Holmes, “I have no doubt that I am very stupid, but I must confess that I am unable to follow you.”
Actually, I am able to follow quite a lot of what you are saying, but like Watson, I tend to get baffled by these complex cases, and I am full of questions.
My first question for you today is, Holmes, why do you take this occasion to pooh-pooh (to use one of Norman’s terms that is growing on me) the idea that “they wanted to depopulate”? Everything Xabier wrote in the comment above resonated with me, but I noticed he didn’t explicitly refer to depopulation. Why did you bring it up?
I agree with you that the the ‘failed kill-off’ mythology doesn’t pass the smell test, but I think the perpetrators, or as Watson would call them, the fiends, wanted to inject as many shots into as many people as they could, and I think they were partially successful.
There may have been one big reason or several different smaller reasons why the COVID-19 injections were rolled out, promoted, and in many instances mandated and coerced. Depopulation, or decimation of the existing population (a roughly 10% cut), MAY have been among the reasons. Or this may not have figured in the fiends’ fiendish plans. But surely, Holmes, this singular campaign must have been carried out for some diabolical reason(s), purpose(s), or end(s)?
My second question—leading from the first—is, was trauma-based mind control the whole point? Or the main point? And if so, were the millions of injection-related deaths and tens of millions of injuries (conservative estimates) a tragic unplanned side-effect, the result of a deliberate intention, or an added bonus for the fiends?
My third question is, do you know what the injections contained? You say they contained “tumor exosomes”, and who am I to disagree, but what else was in them? I’ve read quite widely on the subject and it seems that a witches’s brew of harmful substances including plasmids and heavy metals found their way into different batches or lots, and that there was considerable variation between different lots. In your view, are these findings, the results of a number of analyses announced or published by various teams of researchers, accurate? Or are they too a part of the trauma-based mind control program—the fiction surrounding the toxicity of the injections?
I have asked you three questions, and that is quite enough for one day or one comment. Any answers will be keenly appreciated because I value your perspective. Although as you know, I have endless questions on the jabs. I don’t think I will ever exhaust my capacity to raise new ones.
Kulm going full retard on ed’s full retard comment. See postkey’s Munger post. The Hand keeps Kulm alive yet Kulm wants to demonize the Hand because the Hand keeping Kulm alive makes kulm loathe himself such that kulm has to project his self-loathing onto his keeper in order to cope with his own loathesome demons.
Nevermind that both full retard comments mimic what paid disrupter comments would look like if they sought to disrupt DA theory. You guys are pathetic.
We need to have comments from all sides. It is the combination is helpful. Even if you believe that your view is 100% correct, it can be improved by examining it through different lenses, from different perspectives. That is how self-organizing systems work!
Self-disorganizing systems occur when people disrupt self-organizing systems by redefining the Hand, in this case, in order to suit themselves instead of just calling the Elites whatever it is that they usually call them. Neither of them believe in a supranational think tank running a non public Degrowth Agenda so why would they use the term? This is not me copyrighting the term, it’s just me protecting language so that we can use language as it was meant to be used. Kulm is destructively trolling, Ed not so much.
The timing was related/in sync since as shown for example in graphs of the latest HonestB article again: PeakEcon Germany clearly occurred [2020-1..] , since then it went belly up.. by further pursuing pre-selected “self-harm” policies.
Now the various above state projects to force digital money / ID and related consolidation agenda continue, and after Hormuz, during some further sub. squeeze-crisis it could resurface in ~full strength again, here masked likely under fuel/food shortages as various forced distribution-mandates to the masses.
We simply, interpret events and trends.
The effort and drive for implement “DA” also could take various detours and re-balancing of the project’s key aspects over the time, which negates earlier doctrinaire concepts.
Don’t know about, or explore Kulm’s background inspiration and motives.
In simplistic terms, if the ~same bunch of people kicks me 3-5xtimes into the ankle (in two decades), proclaiming it’s for my good well being during crisis, which they at minimum made worse (if not planned that way) – naturally one doesn’t appreciate their noble goals.
Perhaps, our (mine) viewpoint is scope limited, perhaps “good” globalists ala J.Sachs one day help nudge “DA” to the proper desired corridor.. I’m not privy to these dealings, but I doubt it very much.. as the clans wielding the proverbial stick are not about leaving the scene anytime soon..
Thx Jr. I never said that the Elites nor the Hand are noble. I’ve always said that they are doing it out of self-interest because this is a nuclear civilization that threatens them, too. And that’s beyond the simple observation that overtly attempting to depopulate billions of human males is also too rational. The obviously rational thing to do is to denuclearize and, in doing so, give the world citizenry the anti-nuclear, anti-imperialist politics that they want in order to take the heat off themselves (the Elites), and then just simply let nature bat last with a structural collapse die-off that makes it look like the social nationalist bureaucracies and the ‘disappeared’ Elites by extension, are doing their best to genuinely deal with an impossible situation.
The best trick the proverbial devil ever pulled off was to make the world think he doesn’t exist.
There’s no other rational option for the Elites to pursue.
none too rational
It’s all bit confusing because from day/d events angle as the standard geo-politics run (incl.energy) vs DA (&BNS) are in ~early stages almost of identical scaffolding..
In standard geopolitical realm viewpoint the nascent next global pecking order is as follows:
1. CHN
2. US, RU
3. EU or after brake-up the usual coterie of sub-powers
Now, if you are on descent trajectory to status #3(4) you try to dig up from the hole or rather avoid drowning by several last attempts, no matter what. As they announced, these closed industrial/consumer good factories to be used for new arms production instead of ~renewables+ or other pretend-extenders etc. – so that was the utmost clincher of self admitting desperation gamble – defeat.
In other higher game subplot, Don and boyz, pulled the VZ and Iran thing to essentially boycott, re-route this grave #2 pecking status outcome of fate for them, which by Hormuz continues to ricochet into yet further instability for the near-mid term.
The matters are very complicated by the fact that RoW as govs are mostly vertically integrated model societies, while the US is not, their system is more of a fluid gangster-convention-truce for a while parlor-saloon with some multi-gen banking clergy in the shadows. It’s next to impossible to perform standard diplomatic arrangement (deals lasting more than few days) with such an entity, it’s like dealing with drug-addict or mentally ill person on matters of serious agenda. Btw. the Greeks ( Christoforou) are covering this very fun part angle daily..
The almost identical scaffolding is meant to be confusing because the covert DA operates on plausible deniability by definition. It’s even confusing for us who have insider info on the structural nature of the energy collapse. That’s why we have to put special emphasis on read between the lines such incongruencies as the apparent Russian refusal to go after Ukrainian drone supply lines.
None of the standard geopolitical realm viewpoints are valid because they lack the structural energy understanding.
Back to frame it with initial argument of the thread above.
The [2019+ thing] opened window of forcing agenda. And the agenda was structured as follows:
– depop* some of the extra barnyard numbers
if not potent enough use the scare-cloud opportunity for ID-profile dissent across pop for future herding purposes, ..
– push further econ agenda in the general degrowth vector: flooding hard coal mines, cut off cheap energy imports from ~adversary suppliers etc. (already happened mostly non revertible)
– push perma-war sub-agenda on higher intensity and new segments of pop (e.g. youngsters now war propagandized too)
..
.
—
* the depop plan-scenario is still very muddied waters, if the core solution was ~slow chipping off the pop (multi decade pop trim), even countries say like FR with ~60x units would have ample time and manpower to wind it down ongoing the staircase slope..
I get that sort of narrative but I think it lacks feel. Fast collapse vs slow collapse divergence.
Welcome to the Hand. The first rule of the Hand is: you do not talk about the Hand. The second rule of the Hand is: you DO NOT talk about the Hand!
Hence, outsiders are hand-icapped by being totally unaware of what the Hand is or even that it exists.
Thus, they fail to appreciate its true essence and, if anyone mentions the Hand in conversation, they may even ridicule its apparent lack of finesse or cack-handedness. (Get it?! 😉 )
Therefore, they have no way of comprehending what the Hand is really up to, how handy it is, or why it acts as it does.
Accordingly, the Hand can smack or caress or tickle, give people the finger, a salute, a chop, or a poke in the eye, or turn into the Fist and thump things, and generally handle itself without external interference. Which is precisely what is called for in order to carry out a non-public degrowth agenda.
You’ve really got to hand it to the Hand!
Propaganda: England, France, Russia and the UN proclaim that Israel has the right to self defense. But these imperialist powers support the Arab opinion that Jews do not have the right to self-determination. Proof: Israel won the Nakba wars of 1948 and 1967 yet post ’67 the UN Security Council passed UN 242! Thereafter UN Resolutions 446 and 2334 condemn Israeli illegal settlement of ‘occupied Palestinian territories’. The Roman empire a dead empire. Jews defeated the Nakba Arabs! Israel aint Palestine. The UN attempt to impose the slander of “Occupied Palestinian Territories’, a propaganda lie.
Its not the place of foreign country UN members, many of whom do not even hold diplomatic relations with Israel to impose the name of the Dead Roman empires’ given name to Judea after the defeat of the Bar Kochba revolt in 135 CE. David Ben Gurion named the new Jewish state – Israel. The UN condemned Jordan’s annexation of Samaria as illegal in 1950. Yet the UN after the June 1967 War refers to Samaria by the Jordanian name “West Bank” as occupied Palestinian territory, despite the 1964 PLO Charter which referred only to 1948 Israel as “occupied territory”! Therefore, all post 1967 June War UN Resolutions promote the 1939 White Paper; they seek to restrict where Jews can settle in E. Jerusalem, and Samaria, based upon the blantant lie wherein block voting UN countries pass UN GA 3379 (later repealed), which condemns Israel for its right to achieve self determination in the territories of British mandate Palestine based upon the British separation of Trans-Jordan at the Jordan River; Samaria part of the League of Nations “Palestine Mandated territories” to establish a Jewish National Home based upon the 1917 Balfour Declaration which the 1939 White Paper clearly defrauded and repudiated! Therefore the UN post the June 1967 War have openly rejected the State of Israel’s rights to self-determination within the borders of the League of Nations Palestine mandated territories.
The focus of UN resolutions on post 1967 Nakba Arab defeat, compare to one hand clapping. UN Resolution 446 & 2334 openly condemns Israeli settlements in Samaria & E. Jerusalem as “illegal”. This one sided condemnation denies the equal rights of the Jewish state to self determination. The racist UN imperialism ignores the language of the original League of Nations mandate Palestine when it declares an Arab Palestinian state! Never in all recorded history has there ever existed an Arab Palestinian state. UN revisionist history which condemns Israel for its “illegal occupation of an Arab Palestinian State” – therein denies Israel – the victor of both ’48 and ’67 defensive wars – wherein Arab leaders promised to throw the Jews into the Sea – the UN unilaterally rejects Israel equal rights to achieve self determination within the borders of the original Palestine mandate framed through the language of the League of Nations.
All Arab – Israeli war fought over the steadfast refusal of racist Arab countries who deny that dhimmi Jews have equal rights to achieve self determination within the borders of the League of Nations Palestine Mandated territories. The racist UN revisionist history ignores the cold hard fact that all Arab states rejected UN 181. The League of Nations Mandate did call for a Jewish national home, but it also did not create a sovereign Jewish state with fixed borders. The 1948 first Independence war did not create fixed borders either! The PLO Charter did not condemn in 1964 Jordan’s “west bank” nor Egypts “Gaza”. The Nakba defeat in 1967 Israel ruled the lands specified through the League of Nations and Britain’s Trans-Jordan the international borders of the Jewish state won through war. The language of UN 242 racist presumption that Samaria “occupied territory” – as defined through UN 446 and 2334 proves that the UN racism rejects Israel’s equal rights to achieve self-determination within the borders framed by the League of Nations and the establishment of Trans-Jordan at the border of the Jordan river.
The UN post June War focus upon “the West Bank” as illegal occupied territory – presumes that the UN internationalization of Arab Israeli wars determines the borders of the Jewish state! This racism emphatically compares to the Jim Crow law of American apartheid post WWII which Dr. King and Malcolm X opposed and defeated. The UN does not have any mandate over “Palestine” after David Ben Gurion declared Israeli Independence in 1948. Why? Palestine as a League of Nations mandate territory ceased to exist; no different than when barbarians conquered the Western Roman empire that the Roman name “Palestine” ceased to exist. The UN insistence upon the name “Palestine” seeks to invalidate Jewish self determination which named the State Israel.
The status of Samaria: The UN condemnation of Jordan annexation of their so-called “West Bank”, simply not within the authority of the UN to validate after the Arab Nakba – as disputed territory. The UN does not dispute the post WWII division of Prussia between Russia and Poland. That international diplomacy employs the term “palestine” does not determine the name of the region any more than post the 1846 Mexican American War did Mexico shape or determine the final borders of all the future states which the American army captured. When Jews lost their Bar Kochba revolt against the Romans, Caesar called the region Palestine. Israel crushed the Arab armies in both their Nakba defeats in ’48, and ’67. Attempt to impose revisionist history – a do as I say but not as I do hypocrisy simply invalid and void.
Modern “international law” no more determines the name of the Jewish state as Israel than it does the dead Roman empire name of Palestine. Any outside power which attempts to superimpose a name which Ben Gurion rejected therein despises Jewish equal rights – as defined through the Balfour Declaration – to achieve self determination. The final border map of the Jewish state not determined by some pie in the sky “international law” narishkeit propaganda. Wars and treaties signed by Israel Egypt, Jordan and possibly 27\06\26 Lebanon determine the border of the Jewish state – herein determines Jewish self-determination. No different than Prussia post WWII divided between Poland and Russia.
Israel’s international borders come from negotiated settlements, facts on the ground of military victories, and the UN does not enter into these diplomatic resolutions made between nation states which share a common border. Post ’67 UN decrees attempt to intervene into Israeli strategic interests. UN revisionist history no different than Church revisionist history which proclaims itself as the New Israel! Never in all human history has there, even for a single day, existed a independent Arab Palestinian state. UN voting blocks do not determine Israeli international borders. The Jordanian “West Bank” ceased to exist following the Nakba ’67 Jordanian surrender. Just as the Roman empire collapse terminated the name Palestine. Attempts to restore the Roman empire, such as Czar/Caesar or the Holy Rome Empire in 800CE as dead as the Roman empire itself.
The ‘west bank’ ceased to exist with the Jordanian Nakba defeat just as Constantinople ceased to exist when the Ottomans made Istanbul their Capital. Israel changed the UN condemned Jordanian “west bank” back to Samaria. The territory did not disappear, as as did the Roman empire. Jews rule Samaria not the dead Roman empire. That the UN and most states with an agenda still use “West Bank” means as much to Israeli self determination as Americans voicing opposition to Russian policies in the current Ukraine war!
International recognition of borders, settlements, and the legal framing of the territory compares to the abomination of Chamberlains betrayal of the Czech Republic in 1938 and its puke White Paper in 1939. Munich, a direct great-power handoff of a sovereign state’s territory; the 1939 White Paper, a British policy reversing parts of the Mandate – no different from the UN revisionist history of UN Resolution 446 and 2334. The UN dog chasing its tail Fourth Geneva Convention – Article 49(6) – has nothing to do with the Arab repeated attempts to complete the Nazi genocide of Jews! The UN “law of occupation” follows the Arab racism which emphatically rejects Jews equal rights to achieve self determination in the Middle East.
Just as the UN did not condemn the Allied imposed forced population transfer of native German populations in Prussia, it cannot thereafter pretend that it can impose Article 49(6) upon Israel after the Nakba defeat to throw the Jews into the sea in ’67. Attempts to make revisionist history which pretends that Israel post ’67 and Prussia post WWII must stand upon different scales of judgment — utter and complete narishkeit.
Prussia was a postwar defeat and territorial settlement imposed by the victors; post ’67 the UN imposed a cease fire which prevented Israel doing the same to the Nakba Arabs! All Arab Israeli wars have experience international outside interference. Any attempt to deny this fundamental historic fact constitutes as revisionist history. Israel’s peace with Egypt, Jordan, the Abraham Accords determines its borders. Not imperialistic revisionist history UN GA 3379 narishkeit of UN SC (Chapter VI) declaration which condemn Israeli illegal settlements!
President Trump’s Abraham Accords came in conjunction with Washington recognition of Isrsael’s Capital of Jerusalem in 2017 and recognition of the Golan Heights as Israeli land in 2019! This negated and uprooted UN 2334, in favor of Israel making peace with Arab and Muslim nation states and relegated the dhimmi stateless Arab refugee “1964 Palestinians” as secondary to achieve stability in the Middle East. Post the Oct7th 2023 Abomination War the Trump Gaza Board of Peace excludes Russia, France, Britain, the EU and the UN. Hence the Trump Administration rejects Obama’s UN 2334 just as and equal to Obama treaty with Iran.
Post ’48 Arabs received Israeli citizenship. No Arab country as repatriated its dhimmi Arab Nakba refugees! Who respects the League of Nations Palestine mandate and who despises this mandate? The UN Partition Plan was recommendatory, not binding. UN 446 and 2334 pretend a “binding condemnation of Israel”. Jordan’s 1950 annexation of the West Bank was recognized only by Britain and Pakistan. The 1949 lines were temporary armistice lines, not borders; post Nakba crushing defeat of Allah the dead God in 1967 -became the baseline for later negotiations.
Israel did not give citizenship to post PLO charter Palestinians as given to post ’48 Arabs. It placed the recapture Samarian territories under military law. Attempts to declare military law post PLO terrorism as a “hostile army” revisionist propaganda. Judea and Samaria the heart and soul of the Judean and Israel kingdoms. UN Resolutions (chapter VI) 446 and 2334 employ “occupation” as a moral judgment as if the UN equal the dead Xtian churches in Europe!
Simply not the place of pre-war neutral England and Paris betrayal of their alliance with Israel to later “impose” post Israeli victory the language not “all the territories”. Any more that the SC POPE to declare the settlements have “no legal validity”; the West Bank is “occupied Palestinian territory”. Narishkeit! Never an Arab Palestinian state in all Human history.
Post WWII the Allies transferred some 18 million Germans and transferred Prussia (the heart and soul of the 2nd Germanic empire) to Poland and Russia. The name “Palestine” reintroduced by French mapmakers due to the fact that the “Sick Man of Europe” bankrupt. Post WWI League of Nations dominated by its creaters the allies who won the war. The US did not join the League of Nations because the US Senate refused to ratify Wilson’s treaty obligations.
Just as Italy, Jordan and Pakistan did not exist in antiquity, so too and how much more so Judea the name till the Bar Kochba revolt disaster! Not the place for foreign states to attempt to determine Israeli strategic interests and diplomacy because to do so invalidates Israel’s right to self determination.
The fraud post 1945, the UN Charter prohibit acquiring territory by war. Post WWII Poland Russia and the Czech republic acquired territory through the Nazi defeat. The fraud of “international law” utter propaganda. Israel not a ship floating in the sea of international waters.
Jordanian occupation of Samaria imposed authority of a foreign army according to the UN 1950 condemnation. By 1964 the establishment of the PLO changed the post war ’67 Arab refugee populations into terrorist supporters. Hence Israel did not nationalize ’67 Samaria because it refused to give citizenship to dhimmi Arab refugee terrorists. The post‑1945 norm codified after those Allied decisions seeks to impose one set of rules for great power domination of the Middle East – as if London and Paris won the ’56 War and succeffully seized control of the Suez Canal; and a different set of rules for the peasant States of the Middle East.
The unification of both Italy and Germany post the US Civil War witnessed permanent changes to their international borders post both WWI and WWII. Arab terrorism has its consequences. The fictional post ’64 Palestinians, especially after the Oct 7th 2023 Abomination surprise attack have lost the mandate form heaven. Arab countries have to establish a Palestinian state from within their own borders. Israel catagorically rejects a Palestinian state cut out of the hide of its own rule. Nakba Arab disasters have their consequences. UN biased block voting cannot abra kadabra make these crimes magically disappear and condemn Israel guilty of genocide!
Legally, post Shoah Israelis reject foreign courts to determine European racisim known as “the Jewish problem”. Israel rejected based upon the Torah oath “NEVER AGAIN” not to sign the Rome Treaty. Israel rejects post the White Paper abomination any European imperialism known as “Two-state solution”… divide and conquer. Israel rejects the British division of India and Pakistan. Israel rejects the British division of Iraq and Kuwait. Israel rejects the post war Allied division of Korea and Vietnam. Foreign states do not determine the legality of Israeli strategic interests any more than does the UN determine the strategic interests of the two great power the US or Russia.
Post the Bar Kochba disaster Rome imposed collective punishment upon the Jewish survivors. Post the Oct7th Abomination Nakba victory over Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad, and the Mullahs of Iran the victors dictate the terms of unconditional surrender not the wanna be European 2nd rate powers who lost their attempt to dominate the balance of power across the Middle East when they failed to seize control of the Suez Canal in 1956; had they won that war – the UN would have become mute because of their veto in the Security Council.
The argument that civilians are not responsible for terrorism as flat chested as a grown woman wearing a AA bra! Gazans elected Hamas and rejoiced handing out candy and sweets immediately after Oct 7th. The US bombed civilian populations in Dresden and Tokyo and dropped two atomic bombs when Japanese civilian populations had nothing to do with the Pearl Harbor surprise attack on Dec7th 1941. Millions of Germans lived in Prussia and the Czech Republic for generations, what’s good for the goose good for the gander. The Arab ’48, and ’67 – throw the Jews into the Sea = total war. Actions have their consequences. Revisionist history just a bald face lie. Post 1964 Palestinian political opportunism cannot come at the cost of Jewish self-determination and repeated Arab Nakba defeats.
Post WWII Germans in Prussia – the heart of the 2nd Germanic empire prior to their WWI defeat their civillian did in point of fact lost their legal status as civilians. Just as foreign states do not determine the borders of Israel while sitting in the UN so too and how much more so international law does not compare to the BC AD mythology of the Xtian churches!
What is it that people don’t understand by “less than 5 minutes”?
“October 7 Was An Inside Job” – documentary (2024) by John Hankey
If ‘this’ doesn’t suit your prejudices. Feel free to ignore!!
Pie in the sky gossip speculation.
that’s all you got — a youtube clip? You simply no serious.
“Charlie Kirk questioning Israel’s delayed response to the October 7th Hamas attacks “
Charlie Kirk not an Israeli citizen. Every Arab Israeli war ever – fought on multiple fronts. Had Israel committed our troops to Gaza and Hezbollah had the good sense to delay a massive invasion by 7 to 10 days rather than the following day, Oct 7th would not have become the only massacre of Jews during that war.
What is it that people don’t understand by “less than 5 minutes”?
“October 7 Was An Inside Job” – documentary (2024) by John Hankey
postkey declarations don’t amount to squat. 9/11 has lots of evidence that Chaney and Bush planned to invade Iraq, Building 7 its collapse the Pentagon hit exactly where it stored the evidence for the missing 2.3 trillion dollars. My daughter too suggested the same about Oct 7th. But she has said nothing more since shortly after the massacre. Israel remains at war. So please tell me your evidence b/c speculation does not = proof.
Understanding the Rambam puke halacha
To grasp this subtle distinction shall open with a quote from Isaac Asimov’s novel: The Second Foundation: The Mule p. 62. As an atheist-praise God, Yid, working on a kibbutz that specialized in Organic farming. I sat in the library on Yom Kippur and ate this small book with great satisfaction.
“”So he created his Foundations according to the laws of psychohistory, but who knew better than he that even those laws were relative. He never created a finished product. Finished products are for decadent minds. His was an evolving mechanism and the Second Foundation was the instrument of that evolution. We, First Citizen of your Temporary Union of Worlds, we are the guardians of Seldon’s Plan. Only we!””
This quote, it seemed to me, best describes the k’vanna of the Torah Mishna and Gemara; Siddur and Midrashim. The BaHaG, the Rif & Baali Maor, the Rashi common law commentary to the Chumash, the Rabbeinu Tam & Baali Tosafot, and Rosh common law commentaries to the Talmud.
What does “NOT STANDARD RABBINIC FORMULATION” mean? 3 Types of Torah commandments 1. Av time oriented. 2 Toldah positive. 3. Toldah negative. The latter toldot mitzvot serve as precedents used to elevate a learned Torah commandment or even rabbinic halacha interpretation as a mitzva from the Torah. This chiddush defines how the B’HaG understanding of Torah commandments radically – day vs night – differs from the Rambam טיפש פשט literalism of Torah commandments…בראשית creation story introduces wisdom. The main Torah theme: time-oriented Av commandments; it does not teach the history of the creation of the Universe.
In short: “Not standard” here means not aligned with the Rambam’s statutory, codified model, which became the de facto “standard” after the 13th–15th centuries, especially in Sephardic and later Ashkenazic communities. The B’HaG code: the first rabbinic work to include a formal Hakdama, which includes the 13 principles of rabbi Yishmael. Thereafter this code often introduces a Mishna followed by Gemara precedents which interpret the language of the Mishna as recorded by the Talmudic language. It often summarizes the Talmudic discussion to arrive at the law, rather than quoting a Mishna first to interpret it. Its defining structural feature is the Introduction and the enumeration of the 613 commandments, not a Mishna-based opening for every section. The book frequently utilizes the 13 Hermeneutical Principles (Middot) of Rabbi Ishmael used to derive laws from the Torah text. While these are not unique to the Halakhot Gedolot, they represent the structural tools used throughout the book to organize the laws. The warp-weft Talmudic loom employs rabbinic 7,10, 13 middot to interpret halacha and 32 middot to interpret Aggadah/Midrash.
This directly explains why the B’HaG code — with its Hakdama, 613 enumeration, Talmudic Gemara summaries, and heavy use of the 13 Yishmael midot — feels so “evolving and non-finished” compared to the Rambam’s static list: it keeps the entire Talmudic loom alive, using the earlier middot for the core legal precedents and the later (Galilean) 32 for the aggadic depth that gives every mitzva its time-oriented k’vanna and tohor spirit.
The B’HaG introduction to his common law halachic code radically differs from the טיפש פשט of the Rambam statute law assimilation abomination. Roman law-statute law! Rome changed the name of the 2nd Jewish commonwealth to “Palestine”. The Gemara commentary to the Mishna a common law sh’itta methodology which centers common law upon how Mishnaic courts ruled opinions based upon בנין אב precedents. A halacha does not create its own religion. The Gemara brings an off the dof halacha as a precedent to interpret the intent of a clause of Mishnaic language – based upon a fixed witness like perspective. The Rambam טיפש טשט halachic rulings pervert the Talmud from precedent common law courtroom judicial rulings derived through comparing similar precedent cases unto fixed religious law. The latter has nothing, zero common ground with the former.
“Av / Toldah positive / Toldah negative” framework as seen in the B’HaG: 100 blessing a day דאורייתא, reading the Megillah of Esther דאורייתא, lighting the shabbat candles דאורייתא, tefillah kre’a shma דאורייתא; lighting the lights of Hanukkah דאורייתא, separating Challah as holy דאורייתא etc etc etc.
Tefillah usually read as Shemone Esrei! The common denominator of the B’HaG chiddush – all the mitzvot דרבנן which he rules “potentially” דאורייתא – all זמן גרמא מצוות שצריך כוונה. Toldoth secondary commandment do not require k’vanna. Herein the traditional rabbinic understanding of all three types of Torah mitzvot. Kre’a Shma, requires k’vanna. K’vanna not a word that any fool can simply translate as meaning “intent”. The Shas Bavli/Yerushalmi interpret k’vanna as prophetic NaCH mussar learned to define the Oral Torah middot spirit “pronouns” of the שם השם לשמה which Moshe Rabbeinu heard orally on Yom Kippur after the Golden Calf “revelation” which forever serves as the Av precedent to learn avoda zara – the 2nd Sinai commandment. Specifically, through the commandment precedent which commands do not compare anything in the Heavens, Earth or Seas to HaShem. The k’vanna of this “time-oriented” commandment (as opposed to a simple negative commandment), based upon the sin of the Golden Calf, do not worship words. The ערב רב שאין להם יראת אלהים worshipped the word אלהים rather than the first commandment שם השם לשמה. Words convey ideas they do NOT communicate tohor spirits. The revelation at Horev of the 13 tohor spirit middot “pronounds” of the שם השם לשמה רוח הקודש – spirtis NOT words – despite the Torah speaking in the language of Man.
The Gemara of ברכות debates weather the blessings surrounding the kre’a shma דאורייתא? Why? The language of ברכת כהנים, קריא שמע, ותפילה all lack שם ומלכות. The Siddur opens with ברוך שאמר which contains within this praise שם ומלכות. Understanding how שם ומלכות means swearing a Torah oath elevates a תהילים שבח unto a blessing/oath. This kabbalah חכמה defines the Order of the Siddur blessings. The language מלכות dedicates a particular Oral Torah middah spirit. Hence the Middle Blessings of the Shemone Esrei – 13 – to affix a blessing to a מלכות Oral Torah spirit!
Post the Rambam Civil War (Jews did not fight with armies like as did the North vs South in the American Civil War. בראשית opens with the creation of Order out of Chaos and anarchy. Civil War defines chaos and anarchy among a people.), g’lut Jewry during the horrors of the Dark Ages (G’lut defined as Jews cursed to do mitzvot לא לשמה.), embraced as their “Standard/Flag” – that Shema, Birkat Kohanim, or tefillah are missing “name and kingdom” in a technical sense. The question is more about whether a text functions as a full berakhah and whether it has the required form.
Israelis living in Israel today respond with an emphatic NO. The lack of שם ומלכות not a technical sense what so ever. Rather a k’vanna. Time-oriented commandments specified above, absolutely require swearing a Torah oath – which requires the dedication of Oral Torah spirits לשמה. Rabbi Yechuda understood Yatzir HaTov through בכל לבבך. A Yatzir – a tohor spirit k’vanna – not a ritual technicality. Hence the Cohen blessing Kre’a shma and tefillah all “technically” lack שם ומלכות.
Contrast standard לא לשמה g’lut rabbinic learning. שם ומלכות still usually means the structural form of a berakhah, while kavanah is the inward aim. לשמה Israelis say NO. Kavanna never directed heart/mind toward Heaven. Post Sinai תורה לא בשמים היא. Malchut Shamayim never acceptance of divine sovereignty, but dedication of tohor Oral Torah spirit middot to rule the heart over tumah Yatzir ha-rah spirits also within the heart. The precedent learns through Yaacov and Esav wrestling in the womb of Rivka. Torah common law interprets k’vanna of mitzvot through precedents.
Herein separates how the B’HaG and also the Baali Tosafot rejected the way of Rambam. The Baali Tosafot include Rabbeinu Tam who passed prior to the Rambam publication of his av tuma avoda zara statute law perversion of the Torah vision — to in the future rule the land of Canaan through Sanhedrin court justice. The Rambam perversion changed the Talmud into a religious ritual creed belief system no different from the Xtian and Muslim separate but different “belief systems”. A Torah judge who tries a case based upon a pre-established belief – no different than a judge who accepts a bribe.
The Rambam statute law perversion fundamentally addressed the dire straights of g’lut Jewry during the Dark Ages. The collapse of the dead Roman empire road system made tiny Jewish communities isolated. The Baali Maor criticized the Rif common law code because its structure – while common law – invited a religious statute law reading. B’HaG, Rif, Rosh common law codes as a rule open with Mishna followed by Gemara halachic precedent rulings. But especially after the Rambam statute law abomination prevailed following the public burning of all the Talmud in France in 1242 (((A majority of the Baali Tosafot agreed and supported the Spanish court of Rabeinu Yona and placed the ban of נידוי upon the Rambam in 1232. But The Semag – one of the Baali Tosafot hardily agreed with the Rambam codification.))), the expulsion of all Jews from France in 1306 permanently destroyed the Rashi Tosafot common law school of Talmudic scholarship. The main criticism of the Baali Tosafot commentary to Rashi, that the latter’s Talmudic commentary learned the Talmud more like a dictionary of difficult terms. Totally different from how Rashi’s common law p’shat theory learned the Chumash!
The Semag followed the mitzvot established by the Rambam sefer Ha-Mitzvot egg-crate code which divided Torah commandments into positive and negative 613 commandments! The Semag – one of the Baali Tosafot! He organized Halacha rulings, based upon the model Written Torah commandments. This error, shattered the Gemara employment of Halachic rulings as precedents to learn the language of the Mishna and elevate the Mishna unto time-oriented commandments which require k’vanna. K’vanna simply does not mean the טיפש פשט of “intent”.
The Gaonic school, one of their greatest chiddushim, initiated the Midrashic scholarship which limits itself to making a commentary upon Talmudic Aggadic sources. Its chiddush of affixing aggadic stories to the Order of T’NaCH p’sukim emphasizes the sh’itta of how to study Talmudic Aggada through the פרדס – axis of דרוש\פשט affixed to the warp of Aggadah and the רמז\סוד affixed to the weft of halachic Talmudic scholarship. The Semag codification of halachot supports the false learning of halacha/mitzvot as religious ritual law rather than lateral Sanhedrin courtroom comon law vision for the day when Jews conquer Canaan; the oath brit time oriented commandment of ruling the land of Canaan with wise Sanhedrin lateral courtroom justice which makes righteous compensation of damages inflicted upon others among our people. This latter vision of faith follows the brit established by the Avot who dwelt as ruled strangers in Canaan rather than rulers of Canaan. The Mishna Gemara – Talmud: learns the culture and customs of the chosen Cohen nation like a loom has warp/weft opposing threads to weave garments.
Rabbeinu Yanah’s court first placed the ban of נידוי upon the Rambam in Spain. He petitioned the Pope and king of France to burn his books. In 1232 a majority of the Baali Tosafot likewise imposed the ban upon the Rambam. Rabbeinu Yonah never visited Rambam’s grave. Repent a Xtian term does not mean t’shuva. Yom Kippur defines t’shuva as remembering the oaths sworn to the Avot that they alone would father the Cohen people. Goyim repentance has no connection to remembering through the generations the oath each and every Av swore to cut a brit with HaShem. Historians do not know these 3 separate oaths which the Avot Swore which Moshe reminded HaShem to remember and annul the vow to make Moshe the father of the Cohen people.
Hence I open with a quote from the 2nd Foundation to distinguish between the Torah vision of the avot from the religious ritualism (1st foundation) of g’lut reshonim. The quote affixes the 1st foundation to Rambam literalism and religious ritualism which has no k’vanna. The Rambam never defined time oriented commandments. His 5th positive commandment proves this conclusively — תפילה דאורייתא – קריא שמע, תפילה דרבנן שמוני עשרי.
The Rambam confused Shemoneh Esrei with kre’a shma according to the RambaN’s rebuke of the Rambam. The Order of krea shma adjacent to the Shemone Esrei סמוכים defines the k’vanna Order of the Siddur. The ברוך שאמר contains שם ומלכות in the Ashkenazi siddur. The kre’a shma does not contain שם ומלכות but the 1st blessing does. The repetition of the krea shma the reader adjoins the word אמת into the kre’a shma linking the 3rd blessing סמוך to the 2nd blessing and on to the Shemone Esrei itself through סמוכים.
This interpretive framework explains how Rabbi Yehoshua taught מערב תפילה as both רשות וגם חיוב. And the dispute between Rashi and Rabbeinu Tam 3 stars vs p’lag ha’mincha. P’lag ha’mincha a person can place Rabbeinu Tam tefillen and has the רשות to affix the kre’a shma ערבית back to the Mincha Shemone Esrei and the Shemone Esrei ערבית to the kre’a shma ha’mita through k’vanna. Tefillah ערבית unlike Tefillah שחרית the חצי קדש separates the kre’a shma from the Shemone Esrei. G’lut super-commentaries fail to explain the contraction of rabbi Yehoshua which resulted in Rabban Gamliel’s replacement.
Rambam’s code aims to provide practical rulings without requiring study of T’NaCH, Talmudic or Siddur primary sources. The forced expulsions of Jews 1290, 1306, 1492 etc combined with the blood libel pogroms crusade slaughters and 1648 Kossack rebellion resulted in the absolute destruction of Jewish physical historical evidence. The Nazis sought to make a museum of the extinct Jewish people! But its really not relevant because Torah commands mussar – the definition of prophesy NOT history.
“you know as well as we do [that] the right, as the world goes, is only in question between equal power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”
The Melian Dialogue
The leaders of Melos faced a terrible choice: Have their Countrymen die as free men or live as slaves. The powerful Athenian generals and their fleet of 38 ships carrying heavy infantry and archers waited at the shores of Melos ready for action as the Melians deliberated.
It was the sixteenth year of the Peloponnesian War, but for the last six years the two great feuding empires headed by Athens and Sparta (Lacedaemon) had avoided open hostile action against each other. Ten years into the War, they had signed a treaty of peace and friendship; however, this treaty did not dissipate the distrust that existed between them. Each feared the others’ hegamonic designs on the Peloponnese and sought to increase its power to thwart the subversion to strengthen itself and weaken its rival. This struggle for hegemony by Athens and Sparta was felt most acutely by small, hitherto ‘independent’ states who were now being forced to take sides in the bipolar Greek world of the fifth century B.C. One such state was Melos.
Despite being one of the few island colonies of Sparta, Melos had remained neutral in the struggle between Sparta and Athens. Its neutrality, however, was unacceptable to the Athenians who, accompanied by overwhelming military and naval power, arrived in Melos to pressure it into submission. After strategically positioning their powerful fleets, the Athenian generals sent envoys to Melos to negotiate the island’s surrender.
The commissioners of Melos agreed to meet the envoys in private. They were afraid the Athenians, known for their rhetorical skills, might sway the people if allowed a public forum. The envoys came with an offer that, if the Melians submitted and became part of the Athenian empire, their people and their possessions would not be harmed. The Melians argued that by the law of nations they had the right to remain neutral, and no nation had the right to attack without provocation. Having been a free state for seven hundred years, they were not ready to give up that freedom. Thucydides, an Athenian historian, captures the exchange between the Melian commissioners and the Athenian envoys:
Melians: “…all we can reasonably expect from this negotiation is war, if we prove to have right on our side and refuse to submit, and in the contrary case, slavery.”
Athenians: “…we shall not trouble you with specious pretenses—either of how we have a right to our empire because we overthrew the Mede, or are now attacking you because of the wrong that you have done us—and make a long speech that would not be believed; and in return, we hope that you, instead of thinking to influence us by saying that you did not join the Lacedaemonians, although they are colonists, or that you have done us no wrong, will aim at what is feasible, …since you know as well as we do the right, as the world goes, is only in question between equal power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”
The Melians pointed out that it was to the interest of all states to respect the laws of nations: “you should not destroy what is our common protection, the privilege of being allowed in danger to invoke what is fair and right….” They reminded the Athenians that a day might come when the Athenians themselves would need such protection.
But the Athenians were not persuaded. To them, Melos’ submission was in the interest of their empire, and Melos.
Melians: “And how pray, could it turn out as good for us to serve as for you to rule?”
Athenians: “Because you would have the advantage of submitting before suffering the worst, and we should gain by not destroying you.”
Melians: “So [that] you would not consent to our being neutral, friends instead of enemies, but allies of neither side?”
Athenians: “No; for your hostility cannot so much hurt us as your friendship will be an argument to our subjects of our weakness and your enmity of our power.”
When the Melians asked if that was their ‘idea of equity,’ the Athenians responded:
“As far as right goes…one has as much of it as the other, and if any maintain their independence, it is because they are strong, and that if we do not molest them, it is because we are afraid…”
By subjugating the Melians, the Athenians hoped not only to extend their empire, but also to improve their image and thus their security. To allow the weaker Melians to remain free, according to the Athenians, would reflect negatively on Athenian power.
Aware of their weak position, the Melians hoped that the justice of their cause would gain them the support of the gods, ” and what we want in power will be made up by the alliance with the Lacedaemonians who are bound, if only for very shame, to come to the aid of their kindred.”
Athenians: “…Of the gods we believe, and of men we know, that by a necessary law of their nature they rule wherever they can. And it is not as if we were the first to make this law, or to act upon it when made; we found it existing before us, and will leave it to exist forever after us; all we do is to make use of it, knowing that you and everybody else having the same power as we have would do the same as we do. Thus, as far as the gods are concerned, we have no fear and no reason to fear that we shall be at a disadvantage. But…your notion about the Lacedaemonians, which leads you to believe that shame will make them help you, here we bless your simplicity but do not envy your folly. The Lacedaemonians…are most conspicuous in considering what is agreeable, honourable, and what is expediently just…Your strongest arguments depend upon hope and the future, and your actual resources are too scanty as compared to those arrayed against you, for you to come out victorious. You will therefore show great blindness of judgment unless, after allowing us to retire, you can find some counsel more prudent than this.”
The envoys then left the conference giving the Melians the opportunity to deliberate on the Athenian offer and decide the best course for them to follow.
https://websites.nku.edu/~weirk/ir/melian.html
The Melians chose to fight, but the consequences were absolute. Athens besieged the island, executed all the grown men, and enslaved the women and children.
Today, this historical event remains the foundational text for political realism (or Realpolitik), illustrating how raw power and national interest frequently override moral or ethical considerations in international relations.
Chris Martenson discusses “the invisible hand”.
Chinas possible reduction of oil purchases for no weapon sales from USA briefly discussed. That’s a positive outcome. Taiwan as a proxy force off table this week anyway.
MacGregor thinks not a smallish island exists that will last a hour in a modern conflict including Guam. Munition density just too high. Of course Taiwan is not exactly smallish.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MWryeJvJMe0&t=347s&pp=2AHbApACAQ%3D%3D
Two old people talking about their own aging hands.
Sorry, the Hand is now too arthritic to function.
I consider this appearance by Martenson as symbolic of his career hitting rock bottom. Back in the day before he sold the fuck out, Chris was one of the best with his Crash Course and his deflationary outlook. The plandemic broke him for good and, of course, if you wanna be a garden variety controlled opposition hustler you gotta be a hyperinflationist because that’s the misdirection play that the Big Daddy Chairman of the Board, the Hand, rewards.
So now Chris is publicly committed to hyperinflation, and he’s also hustled himself into the provincial fame of the controlled opposition establishment. This forces him, as a supposed economic expert, to go full retard in bargaining with the current price of oil. Everybody knows that shorting oil derivatives can’t structurally do jack shit to the oil price. But Chris looks at the astronomically high 93% USO short positioning and says, “invisible hand.” Because he’s the Hand’s little bitch.
For the few of us that still live in reality, and do so because OTSS, obviously the reason that USO is 93% short is because the moron of hormooz just fucked up everything up so bad that there are only 7% of fiat-minded idiots like Chris Martenson who don’t realize what it means for BAU. You go short when your bearish for chrissakes.
You will love this one. It has a great opening riff, a stunning guitar solo, and the drumming is a real treat.
Demiurge will like this one better. It has much more melody and is easier on the ears. To be honest, it was corny and cheesy even when it was released. But nobody minded that.
VLCC supertanker Kiku hit by unknown projectile as it attempted transit/escape via omani south channel. Damage unconfirmed.
Horse of a different color than the container ship hit day before IMO but degree of damage will quantify that statement
Plunking incendiary munitions through the thin hulls of VLCCs will have predictable results. Iran so far has had little taste for environmental catastrophe on its doorstep
Quite the algorithm for insurance company’s..
https://x.com/_MartinKelly_/status/2070846828724023370
Conflict is not completely over. There is the need to expect at least some damage to ships. Article says:
The cycle continues… anticipate US strikes at Bandar Abbas, Sirik and/or Jask tonight, additionally attacks against ships in the Syrait of Hormuz and Iranian attacks against Gulf states in the next 24hrs.
Africa is Still the Smoking Gun
A recent study implicates the Covid Vaccines used mainly in the West for the increases in Amyloid Microclots found in (still) live human beings and cadavers. We may be reaching a pinnacle of diagnosed cases that can’t be ignored much longer.
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2026/06/27/africa-is-still-the-smoking-gun/
Chinas sinopharm blew everything else out of the water in terms of saving lives and the MRNA measure countermeasure experiment yielded exactly what it was designed to yield. Data. Did it even get us closer to the generic MRNA plug and play solution for “zoological events”?
One way to find out
Regardless It’s clear in the COVID event Chinas quickly developing a true traditional vaccine one off was radically more effective than the failed MRNA plug and play countermeasure paradigm. They wanted to play with the technology for a long long time and they needed a reason to smash every standard of informed consent and right to choose health decisions. Data monkey life.
Seen the Chinese research that led China to banning all MRNA technology in their nation upon doing a few clinical trials with the MRNA countermeasure?
Me neither.
Genetic susceptibility to the “zoological event” aside the clinical trials I read back in the thick of it indicated sinopharm was good stuff. It was a approved “vaccine” in the USA and It actually was a vaccine. It was not available in the USA but if you got juiced with it elsewhere it was approved .I would have accepted a injection of sinopharm if the consequences for refusing were bad enough. Now low and behold the actual world wide data matches the clinical trials.
I made it through with pony paste but knew a guy not so lucky.
I checked to see if your China information is in this article. It is not. It is about the good outcomes in Africa, without the vaccine.
Somewhere near the end, this article says:
EVERYONE, EVERYWHERE, EVERY AGE
Having a massively large control group in Africa that are healthy, alive and multiplying in 3 to 5 years to compare to the billions of dead bodies cannot be allowed. This may be why Gates and Co are pushing for mass vaccination programs in Africa, specifically in Sub-Saharan Africa where people barely noticed Covid.
“Now we must rapidly and equitably deliver COVID-19 vaccines to the world. Ensuring everyone receives the vaccines they need will provide exceptional return on investment and help keep the world safe from future pandemics.
“IA2030 envisions a world where everyone, everywhere, at every age, fully benefits from vaccines.”
The article look at African deaths at 258 k and Chinas at 122k. If you believe Africas treatment protocol effective the same data would indicate Chinas sinopharm effective. Both much better than the millions of deaths in MRNA vaccine nations. Not that sinopharm is good for you either but I would prefer to have the spike protein rather than reprogram my body to create spike protein. The data would seem to indicate that preference might be validated.
RE: “Now we must rapidly and equitably deliver COVID-19 vaccines to the world. d. Ensuring everyone receives the vaccines they need will provide exceptional return on investment and help keep the world safe from future pandemics.”
This is the official propaganda, the official lies.
The mRNA Covid “vaccines” are not health-promoting agents but health-destroying poisons/bioweapons that have killed MILLIONS OF PEOPLE globally, and it’s still ongoing — http://www.CovidTruthBeKnown.com or https://www.rolf-hefti.com/covid-19-coronavirus.html (The 2 Married Pink Elephants In The Historical Room –The Holocaustal Covid-19 Coronavirus Madness: A Sociological Perspective & Historical Assessment Of The Covid “Phenomenon”)
“Growing up means realizing that none of the worst villains are in prison.” — Caitlin Johnstone, Independent Journalist (https://archive.ph/zDqoh)
“I kept an extensive record of sudden deaths of mRNA vaccinated doctors during 2021-2023, after COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines were forced via mandates. The data showed a SKYROCKETING MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY OF DOCTORS following injection with mRNA products. I stopped keeping track as it became clear that for the medical and political establishments, THESE SUDDEN DEATHS WERE DEEMED “ACCEPTABLE” TO ENSURE COMPLIANCE. And doctors themselves, stayed silent.” — William Makis, M.D., September 2025 (https://archive.is/R9G0j)
“Pharma plunges ahead. The experimental RNA technology was and is a global disaster, but that makes no difference.” — Jon Rappoport, American investigative journalist, April 2026 (https://archive.is/Yl4Ko)
It “makes no difference” to the global ruling mafia club of psychopaths because they create their own reality for us…
“[Reality-based people ] believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality. That’s not the way the world really works anymore. WE’RE AN EMPIRE NOW, AND WHEN WE ACT, WE CREATE OR OWN REALITY. And while you’re studying that reality – judiciously, as you will – we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors . . . and you, ALL OF YOU, WILL BE LEFT TO JUST STUDY WHAT WE DO.” — Former Senior Adviser of the US Empire/Regime, in 2002 (https://archive.is/8wG4Y)
“The term ‘mRNA vaccine’ is a cover for nanotechnologies that are being used as gene-editing technologies and agents of biowarfare on US and global citizens. The cationic liposome nanotechnologies are being used to introduce non-human DNA into the cells of adults and children to turn their cells into disease-causing, toxic spike-protein bioweapon factories.” — Karen Kingston, former American Big Pharma employee, in 2023 (https://archive.md/GTmQ1)
“There are essentially no usable, relevant and unbiased policy-grade clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy, and COVID-19 vaccine efficacy has never been reliably demonstrated in observational or ecological studies free of design bias.” — Denis G. Rancourt, Ph.D., Independent Research Scientist on Covid-19 “Vaccines” in 2025 (https://archive.ph/uWpzR)
“Despite the extensive documentation, most mainstream doctors and media dangerously continue to ignore my findings and refuse to speak about the self assembly nanotechnology that is in every human being now. The blood contamination is greatly accelerating in the amount of nanotechnology seen due to C19 bioweapon shedding, geoengineering and food contamination, to name a few sources.” —Ana Maria Mihalcea, M.D., Ph.D., Oct 2023 (https://archive.ph/GbMtm)
“Becoming an “antivaxxer” means you are smart enough to say NO to being poisoned.” —Ana Maria Mihalcea, M.D., Ph.D., 2024 (https://substack.com/@anamihalceamdphd/p-149191470)
“This is why they have to make yard signs that say “Science is Real”. Because this new science ISN’T. It is a total in-your-stupid-face conjob. When something is real and people know that, you don’t have to make yard signs promoting it. You don’t need yard signs saying “trees are real”, “the sky is blue”. You only need yard signs promoting things that AREN’T real. Like new science and, say, political candidates.” — Miles Mathis, American author, in 2025
“Ignorance is the root cause of all Evil. Since only Knowledge eradicates ignorance, it is our duty and moral obligation to educate ourselves, as well as the masses around us.” — Anonymous
Speaking of ignorance is evil, how can the masses get out of this whole mess? First, EVERYONE needs to learn, and teach others, what true morality is (it’s NOT the same as religious morality): https://www.whatonearthishappening.com/news/988-mark-passio-interviewed-by-axel-dahi-2026-04-16
China is fond of water sealed cavern storage for oil storage. Reserves are not easily surveiled like above ground tanks using satellite sensors. Outcomes are not easily calculated because real time capacity is unknown.More munition resistant as is moving physical location away from coast. Storing wealth in oil has always been considered unrealistic because of overhead cost. China proceeds with expansion of water sealed cavern storage as with all things physical. China absaloutly plays in the financial world but there dollar dominates. Chinas real focus is embracing the physicality of the world. Controlling refining supply chains and accumulating feed stock storage of a vast assortment of materials. Materials are the life blood of any nation but particularly so for the manufacturing and technological center of the world.
Chinas build out has proceeded on all civilizational building critical areas . Materials technology and military. Only a economic downturn of unprecedented degree has a chance at slowing this accumulation of civilizational power and the precautions China undertakes mean no nation is insulated. The razors edge is Chinas greater need for materials vs the criticality of the manufactured goods and materials they produce or control. That is Chinas equivalent of the Hormuz strategic weapon. Along with a military revealed as at least peer every day.
How do nations cope with the reality of global interconnectedness as they cultivate civilization power with what is traditionally considered skill when nice guys finish last? Is the concept of a benign global nation wielding domination a realistic coping mechanism when interconnectedness is considered? Is the nation evolutionary process even capable of producing a effective coping to interconnectedness when nice guys finish last?
IMO the homogenization solution offered is far worse than the reality of interconnectedness but that does not mean the addressing the reality is not a critical existential matter. Nations do not possess the the autonomic organism economic biosensors to incorporate the criticality . IMO the solution must be the criticality of diplomacy to existence must be sensed and incorporated on a autonomic level and the powerful modeling tool of language is incapable of this function. In a world where the reality is nice guys finish last and diplomacy and word models are designated another tool of dominance not a critical tool of existence the outcome is what we witness. Cool dude you first. Meanwhile more water sealed cavern storage is yummy.
Tough learning curve when immediate existence is weighted so heavily as a fundamental aspect of evolution by its nature. The only hope is evolution demonstrates it’s occasional ability for spurts of radical development. This would mean the language modelling tools inherent flaws would be understood intuitively and something that balances it manifests. A tough order to fill considering the language modeling tools inherent power and accomplishments. Currently the only check and balance is cognitive dissonance hardly a competitor from any reasonable metrics. The language modeling tool is a very very sharp sword.
No where is this dysfunction more apparent than nuclear proliferation.
As I often say with my characteristic sarcasm that I deem so appropriate but exponentially so in this matter.
Hope springs eternal.
I am afraid that the world economy needs to start coming apart into smaller pieces because the world is deteriorating in the ways you mention. Nice guys don’t finish first. We do need to keep some hope up, however.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8PS3-nE12o
Rome left England and things got smaller.
I would be afraid to scare readers by referring this video in a post. We are terribly dependent on fossil fuels. The 400 years of darkness after the Roman Empire left England would be a horrible (but perhaps accurate) analogy to what may be coming ahead. I didn’t have a chance to watch much of it yet.
Rather than a few big movers the Rome pull out suggest being nibbled by many smaller players. A self organized attack.
The transfer of military control of Eastern Russian to China will be interesting to watch. The fighting of everybody for pieces of Western Russia will be the spectacle for the 20 year war. The Israelis fight on the southern front, the Norwegians fight on the northern front, the French with their English allies fight on the western front. US military weapons manufacturers make money off of all of them.
20 year war? Fighting with what?
Other than Donbass, there is nothing to take from Western Russia. The oilfields are in the Yamal peninsula, in the Arctic east of the Urals, and the Caspian.
French with English Allies? Both are heavily domiciled by Africans, so what you are saying is Africa invading Russia.
I won’t bother to mention Norway,
The Hand has a plan. Ownership in the hands of a few (no need to argue who) and starvation of the rest.
Will Russian oligarchs get angry and nuke the enemy or take the safe path and move to Miami, LA, the gold coast of Australia, Argentina? To me is seems clear they have already given up. Just pulling money to western banks until the last wire transfer, the last private jet with gold bars flies out.
Second heat dome incoming:
The gates of hell remain wide open for Europe:
No hit-and-run this time—it’ll drag on for days, “Omega Blockade” on the way!
The latest data dropping into meteorological models paints a far more insidious and grueling picture:
-The SICAK KUBBE (HEAT DOME) at the end of June will be followed by a second Heat Dome in early July, poised to swallow a much wider area over western Europe and potentially linger far longer than the first one.
-The first dome at the end of June was aggressively extreme but relatively short-lived. However, according to the latest ECMWF outputs for July 7-10, this new system is forming an Atmospheric Blockage (Omega). The high-pressure system could lock in over Europe like a massive “heat lid,” trapping hot air inside for days (at least 6-9 days).
-🔥 Cumulative Heat Threat:
The first wave already completely dried out and baked the soil moisture in western Europe. With no moisture left, this incoming dome will heat the surface much faster and more mercilessly. Each day will be hotter than the last!
🌡️ New Max Temperature and Record Expectations in Models (expected to start July 7-10)
🇪🇸🇵🇹 Spain & Portugal: Thermometers in Andalusia and inland areas are forecast to hit the 44°C – 46°C range, smashing absolute July records.
🇫🇷 France: The epicenter of the new dome is once again southwestern France. Surface temps between 43°C – 45°C will put local records on shaky ground again!
🇩🇪🇧🇪 Germany & Benelux: With the urban heat island effect, inland temps could climb to 38°C – 41°C, potentially rewriting July extreme stats.
🇬🇧 England (South): London and southern coasts face paralyzing peaks of 34°C – 37°C.
⚠️ International Alert: This immovable blockade for days will max out forest fire risks across France, Spain, and Italy, while dropping river levels and severely straining energy grids.
The first wave was a shock; the second will turn into a full-on war of attrition. As Europe roasts at twice the global average speed, July is gearing up to go down in meteorological history!
(Météo-France and global forecast centers (ECMWF & GFS) show over 70% agreement on this scenario. Experts agree that Europe’s soil, stripped of all moisture by June’s heat, could shatter records far more easily under this second blow!)
This data is fresh. Long-range weather forecasts aren’t 100% guaranteed—we’ll see day by day, as models update, whether this incoming temperature assault fizzles out or spirals into an even bigger catastrophe. Here’s hoping this new dome breaks up and we get temps back to normal 🙏
The English are such wimps.
“🇬🇧 England (South): London and southern coasts face paralyzing peaks of 34°C – 37°C.”
It does that all the time in summer in New York State. And in Georgia but with wicked humidity.
113F in Spain is killer.
going to 101F Thursday in NYS.
Just the perfect excuse for another beer from the fridge really, or some delicious, glowing, vino rosado: I had some of the latter last night, with fried chorizo and bread, outside in the cool evening breeze, before retiring to sleep on the nice cold terracotta tiles in my studio. Far from ‘paralyzed’…..
“The English are such wimps.”
Hang your head in shame, Ed Pell. That’s a very silly thing to say. Our seasonal average here is around 25–26°C, and this is our warmest season. Humans do not acclimatise to a 10°C jump in a matter of days, especially when they usually never experience such high temperatures. The unusually high humidity makes it even worse.
I was amused to discover that I’d got 3 large mosquito bites, 2 or 3 days ago. They don’t itch or hurt, but I noticed the bumps first, then saw the big red mark of the final one. I usually only get them in severe heatwaves. I remember waking up to discover 9 bites on my body, one June morning in 2015.
In June 1980 I was in a train compartment in Belgium. I was wearing a T-shirt, as was a young German lad. The temperature was about 70°F, pretty normal for those times. Two young Peruvian women tourists, aged around 20, were seated opposite us. They were sitting shivering in thick overcoats. I felt a bit sorry for them but didn’t consider them wimps. One of them asked me what the weather was like in England. “Not quite as warm as this”, I answered. “Oh no!” she exclaimed, and shuddered. I was fascinated that humans could experience heat so differently.
—————————————
The current London heatwave corresponds to a historically unprecedented climate range, with temperatures reaching 36.4°C on Friday, June 26, 2026, breaking the previous June record of 35.6°C.
Temperatures reaching 36°C to 37°C, like those currently experienced in London, are typical for the following climate zones during their summer seasons:
Hot Desert and Arid Climates
Regions with Hot Desert climates regularly experience summer highs well above 36°C, often exceeding 40°C or 45°C. These areas include the Sahara Desert (North Africa), the Arabian Peninsula (e.g., Riyadh, Dubai), and parts of the Southwestern United States (e.g., Phoenix, Arizona). In these zones, such heat is the norm for months at a time, characterized by intense solar radiation and very low humidity.
Hot Summer Mediterranean Climates
Inland areas with a Hot-summer Mediterranean climate typically see regular summer temperatures in the 35°C–40°C range. Unlike the coastal zones which are moderated by the sea, inland cities like Madrid (Spain), Seville, and parts of California’s Central Valley (e.g., Sacramento) frequently endure heatwaves where 36°C is common during June, July, and August. These regions experience dry, hot summers driven by subtropical high-pressure systems.
Humid Subtropical Climates
Humid Subtropical zones, found on the eastern sides of continents, experience hot, humid summers where temperatures regularly climb into the mid-to-high 30s°C. Examples include the South-eastern United States (e.g., Atlanta, Houston), parts of Eastern China, and northern India. In these areas, the combination of high heat and high humidity often makes the “felt” temperature significantly higher than the recorded air temperature.
Continental Hot Summer Climates
Interior continental regions with Hot-summer Humid Continental climates can also reach these temperatures during peak summer. Areas such as the Midwestern United States (e.g., St. Louis, Kansas City) and parts of Eastern Europe experience hot summers where 36°C days occur, though usually with greater day-to-day variability than in desert or Mediterranean zones.
I live in an area with wide variations over the year. I have grown tired of it and wish to move to a Mediterranean weather area.
… said half the population of Africa.
Ed Pell wrote:
“England (South): London and southern coasts face paralyzing peaks of 34°C – 37°C.”
It does that all the time in summer in New York State. And in Georgia but with wicked humidity.”
It’s scary and horrific that Gail in Atlanta has to suffer such Third World temperatures. It must be karma of some kind. 🙁
It does get up to about 35 degrees C where I live, but high humidity tends to come with lower temperatures. (So far it hasn’t been this warm, but it is forecast for next week.) The Atlanta area is up in the mountains. It is not as hot as Baltimore or Washington, DC. But we do have air conditioning.
That’s to large degree why air-con (unit) saturation is way lower in Europe ( aggregate ), meaning residential buildings, as the humidity factor is (has not been) present so much. Also, the factor of higher energy pricing.
As I recall from US, apart from obvious glass skyscrapers, even avg. condo buildings are all equip. w. central aircon systems. And the homeowners have indiv. units installed.
Update: it seems from sat the [ omega blob ] has been in very recent hours loosing its energy feeding link from N Africa as the cool air incoming from the Atlantic snapped that connection funnel near Gibraltar from a distance forcing.. (for now).. So, hopefully, we are only ~12-24hrs away from some early reprieve..
Generally speaking, the heat wave records in this event where upped by ~2-3C .. in some areas after 100yrs, elsewhere 30-40yrs.. rewritten.
Update: weather mega trend reversal anticipation re-confirmed by “nature” now as large birds ~1m wing span (in cool place hiding upto now) are back in the outside and enjoying these super fast ~elevator like hot air streams to circle up into the very high altitude..
Very clock-worky this planet, indeed.
Ravi> where did you find the return of the “omega” blob ?
At the site there is only some partial return of hot weather in mid July.. nothing of the previous/today’s strength.., I can’t find such detailed pressure predictions so far ahead into future, only temps..
Blob now and early next week:
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-z500-t850?base_time=202606271200&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202606271200
There is only this and that’s different scale/context:
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202606260000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202608100000
till August temp:
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202606260000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202607060000
Sorry Jr . 99.9% I put up the link but this time I forgot . Guess the heat is getting to me . It is 8.30 pm and it is 28°C . Crazy .
I noticed that even the nice Indian girls in the little local shop were looking rather flustered this morning.
Odd, too, as the shop is icy, but I suspect they had all suffered a stuffy night and a hot journey into work.
My cats choose to sleep on the tile floor when it gets hot. I have seen the same in Cairo for humans.
The siesta is one of the greatest innovations of Mediterranean civilization. Just put up the closed sign, draw the curtains, and sleep after lunch until 4 or 5 PM.
Add (human-iod trickery observation), noticed there is some ideal-spot around ~35min in duration at *dawn when temp and humidity bottom down a bit further even vs. these super-computer model predictions. That’s the time threshold where you “full attack mode on” and exchange the air in dwellings..
–
* this is fluid for each day, and it’s being delayed from say earlier just after mid night to very late dawn during these top hot dayz ; also gets better the longer you are away from solstice.. ; hence very complex dynamics..
PS also corroborated by insect activity, which spikes up right after this threshold ends.. and vice versa they go crazy around dusk of previous day..
When will the June article be published?
I finally have an article that is very close to finished. Writing about a constantly changing situation is difficult is hard for me. Hopefully, Monday or Tuesday.
Russia news. No gasoline or diesel on M-8 for the last 70 km to Yaroslavl. No one I know has ventured south looking for fear of losing their precious half tank. 30 liters max at the only pump here, and you can get a canister (20l) for a higher price. Long lines at the only pump in 60 km. I will try to go there at 3am.
And I think this is going to be a 6 months+ state of affairs. I wish to recast my prediction to a 30%+ local economic contraction. Lots of small businesses losing. No hay (dairy is king here), which is currently selling at 2000/bale, was 1200, no heavy equipment being moved, no tourism. I expect the price of beef to halve as everyone is going to sell their animals for meat. The price of milk is politically controlled so that is going to be the next headache.
Thanks drb .
Thanks for the update. I’ve seen video of what is claimed to be enormous lines for gas at 1am in some part of Russia far from Ukraine. I imagine a lot of people are cursing the Kremlin right now, but I don’t suppose Putin will change the approach. I also wonder if the security establishment might eventually move to remove him; he’s prosecuted the war in a very peculiar manner that strikes me as intentionally ineffectual.
It is the doubt many have. But beware of change. In the 1990s the economy was controlled by 7 members of the same tribe. Berezowsky is dead, probably killed by the security team. Chubais has self exiled to Israel at the beginning of the war. Khodorkhovsky was allowed to keep his billion and in London some months ago he said that one of the Rothschild was the real owner of Lukoil. The other four are here, all worth 20B+, and so the transition team is in place in the West’s eyes.
MIGIRA – ‘Make Israelites Great In Russia Again’?
One hopes not.
Which way will the generals jump? Bribeable, one assumes. But by whom?
There’s only negative benefit to regime changing Russia because Russia was already pumping full out for the globalists. West over East hegemony was won decades ago and globalization is what we have to show for it. When you’ve already won something, you can’t win it again. All you can do is make it more efficient and eliminate the possibility of it taking the Export Land Model route of Collapse. And make it participate in the BNS misdirection play that intentionally breaks the imperial order in service of the multipolar social nationalisms that maximizes Phase 2 MPP.
Putin’s gonna bring it and bring it hard. Stars look like they are finally aligning.
Another thing is that now internet is up most of the time. I guess they understand that people need internet now that they can not drive. But that will only open up opportunities for some Ukie agents. Anyway I am sure the situation at the pump is more in the elite’s minds than the few civilian casualties a day. Oh, and I do not see rage in the population. They understand the danger of removing Putin. They are calm.
Also, use this instance to evaluate the integrity of the usual blogosphere, from Mecrouris to Krapivnik. Their message is as canned as any western MSM. Really, no one understands that you can lose a war at the pump. Or maybe they do but find it inconvenient to say. The fact is that Russia is at the beginning of a 20-yrs long war.
We will know soon enough if this was a good strategic move by Putin, not to react except beef up defenses at refineries. Either The West starts soon having the same problems, while Russia’s improve, or there will be internal conflict. I anticipate that western strategists will direct oil flows to countries committed to war with Russia, and away from countries like Italy trying to stay out of this.
The following not meant as vile criticism, dark revelation or such, more like basic overview-recap.
Mercouris has been in the orbit of various ~globo CHN-RU msm/PR and int. conference outlets/venues for at least past ~two decades. Simply it’s his over-all profession, or significant – core fundament at least. He churns ~material daily, often times when ill and just soldiers on..
Compare, contrast his “side-kick” the bearded Greek of the duo Christoforou, he has been critical – skeptic about RU govs polices for some time already, and certainly not only in some court duo jester bad/good cop role. Apart from Duran, he has got his own yt channel, I linked him recently, his critique of RU govs often hints to fin – circle restraining domain-angle origins.. His over-all demeanor to me seams quite different to Mercouris, more of a lite-trust funder kiddo / RE ~wealth family type of guy..
Why dig out around like that in the first place?
The Greeks are one of the longest civs out there, some civ traits ( e.g. exposing-feeling govs shenanigans ) are hardwired in them, simply it’s worth to listen to.. Greeks had grand civs and politico space, while most of “our ancestors” were still chasing white unicorns in the deep northern forests..
“Russia is at the beginning of a 20-yrs long war”
The genocide wars have begun. Dead people do not buy diesel.
That initial RU strategy would have worked swell w.out the failure of NOT #1 anticipating-projecting such mass production (and evolution) of drone tech + #2 US enabling sat for it.. , basically turning it into full level proxy war where support flows: US->UKR (sat) and (EU->UKR in terms of money), then in next round RU NOT! objecting to any of it forcefully per given involved parties.
So, it’s clearly [ a failure of policy ] on several (sequential) fronts in terms of these RU hinterland damage exposure levels, unimaginable in previous settings (cold war etc.)
The UKR is still to be ext. supported by so we can only debate the time profile of it ( surprisingly fast, medium or slow) and the level of incurred damage..
PS so, from the planners viewpoint the whole operation worked swell so far, as RU goes deeper into self-destructing loop on its own volition..
Ooops, middle paragraphs failed to post properly.
Agree with Drb, path to prolonged conflict scenario most likely now fully open, irrespective of counter measures dreamed / applied upon – too late for it now.
As long as UKR still receives 50-100B y/y for war effort from EU, the hinterland damage within RU will continue to significant extent.
The timeline is rapidly shortening not lengthening. One major shortages start hitting, and the drones don’t stop, it’s do or die time just as the theater boxed Iran into in early March. The BNS stars are aligning just as the worldwide shortages hit. Here comes the chorus.
Update: abrupt change of narratives on RU state TV, the following ENG voice over translated vid while UKRo narrative based on snippets from very recent RU show contains real juicy material..
You can also fast-forward:
~4:20s They admit predictive scenario of drones to be exponentially manuf. around the world in large amounts and made avail. to UKR, discussed within RU govs 1.5yr ago already..
Also talking about danger of shipping container hidden missiles/drones to strike from any direction be it naval port or any trade post around RU..
–
~8:20s Explaining situation with refineries in RU, where top 10x made 55% of all output, and many/most are located in central-RU and are easy targets..
–
So, this means, either comes general chaos for the regime, as the msm is NOT under such tight control anymore. Or this is new spin now meant as domestic audience pre-alibi for first serious retaliatory strikes.. due any moment. Well, also third option, preparing public for surrender.
Yeah there we go. This is the chorus.
Yes, sorry should have incorporated ~BNS oil/energy link more clearly into the listed options..
This is apparently all too juicy theater and timing ~coincidences ( recent events globally ) to be just filed under haphazard incompetence, gullibility in RU-US interaction etc.
All too juicy indeed.
You are right. This sounds like a major change is coming.
150,000 drones made in UK versus one fusion bomb on London?
Sabotaged natgas pipeline network ( carrying %%B of revenue ) on the bottom of the Baltic sea few yrs ago, null response.. ( UKRo-US-UK suspects team ~identified meanwhile )
It’s a pattern.
PS you don’t need fusion over mega-cities.. right away, that’s impulsive behavior..
#1 step you perform announced thermo-barric over uninhibited island in some distant former colonial realm
#2 the same with small stationed outpost next time
#3 nice cables you have around your island..
#4 oops, why are import-cargo ships suddenly blocking traffic on the sea-bottom of your ports
..
.
Any kindergarten graduate (and up) can devise that type of such truly escalation ladder available in your toolbox – yet again NOTHING of that sort happened so far.
For a reason.
These things sound like they will be huge problems.
Yes and not just for Russia
Can that half price beef up with some sodium nitrate.
Thanks for the info.
Refinery news .
1. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-oil-service-lockout-takes-effect-disrupts-offshore-drilling-2026-06-27/
2. https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2026/06/exxonmobils-antwerp-refinery-to-stop-output-from-june-29-july-3-due-to-strike/
I associate labor disputes (both lockouts and strikes) with oil prices too low for producers. Workers become more interested in joining the military because perhaps it could pay close to as well. Oil companies want to become more efficient to match the low prices.
Before WWI, coal mines had very similar problems in England.
The labour disputes, and unrest in Ireland, were among the reasons which led the Germs to think the time was ripe to lunch their bid for a global empire, displacing France and Britain, and conquering Russia, in 1914.
The British also understood that they had to stop, by any means possible, the Germans from gaining control of the new and expanding oil fields, and Russia’s immense resources.
Good morning . Instead of the coffee today I smell TNT . The insta war -insta peace- insta war .
“Two days ago the United States bombed Iran. Ten days earlier, the same two countries had signed a peace deal whose one core promise was safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran drone-struck a ship in that exact strait, the US hit Iranian missile sites in return, and oil did the unthinkable. It fell. Crude is now under $70.
That reaction rewrites a rule. For fifty years, a missile fired near Hormuz meant oil spiking. This week the signatories of a ceasefire shot at each other inside the world’s most important oil chokepoint, and the price went down. The market looked at live fire in the strait that carries a fifth of the world’s crude and decided it did not care.
The deal did not crack at the edges. It broke at its center, the single clause it existed to deliver, tested by a drone and answered by an airstrike ten days after the ink dried.
And the same afternoon the bombs fell, the choreography of peace rolled on. The Secretary of State stood in Washington signing a separate Israel-Lebanon framework, calling it the start of lasting peace. The President told a room of farmers the Strait of Hormuz was open. America signed a peace, declared a waterway open, and bombed a treaty partner, all inside one day.
So the war did not end. It moved into the paperwork. Iran’s strait authority now says any ship on the American route loses its insurance. Trump says the strait is open. Each side has claimed the same narrow channel as its own, in writing, and is firing to prove it. The market has already placed its bet, oil under $70, that the flood of barrels is more real than the war over who controls them.”
Of course the bombs fell on Friday after Wall street closed .
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2070721721712472208
Following the US attack, the Southern lane is eerily quiet. My analysis of the situation is that IRGC will implement a full closure on the Oman route. The US will have to retaliate.
This back and forth is unlikely to resolve itself. The issue for the US is now that $12 billion has already been released, and Iran got both the cargoes they need and the 40 million bbls out of the Gulf of Oman; the balance shifts against the US.
https://x.com/HFI_Research/status/2070638067699093947/photo/1
https://tass.com/world/2152275
Iranian army announces strikes against US forces in Middle East
According to the news agency, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps carried out strikes against the deployment sites of the US military in the region
TEHRAN, June 27. /TASS/. Iran carried out retaliatory strikes against US military bases following attacks by Washington, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, the elite units of the Iranian Armed Forces) reported.
“In response to the aggression, the IRGC naval forces carried out strikes against the deployment sites of the US military in the region,” the Tasnim news agency quoted the military as saying.
Earlier, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that it had carried out strikes on Iranian territory in response to an attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trying to follow this US-Iran conflict is a bit like watching a pro-wrestling match, as I often used to do with my granny when we sat in her kitchen in front of the black & white telly. Even as a kid, I could see the matches were performances, not competitions. But that didn’t stop me enjoying the tension as I wondered which wrestler was going to win.
I have the same feeling about the current conflict—that it has elements of both a real fight and a fake one. It isn’t simply both sides doing their best to clobber each other into submission.
Perhaps the Hand is choreographing each act to keep the thing simmering but not quite boiling over. Or perhaps Donald Trump is doing it under orders from the Hand. But in any event, what is the point of this conflict?
Could it be to suppress the demand for oil by suppressing and destabilizing the supply of oil? What better way to achieve a non-public degrowth agenda (NPDA)than to blame it on a war that’s preventing supplies from getting to where they are needed?
Or could it be to ensure a tight market for the remaining oil suppliers by eliminating some competition now that the US is generously allowing Venezuela to sell oil again?
Somehow.. grandmas love wrestling. Same here. Wonder why…
Woman, red in tooth and claw, CTG: once youth has fled and Grandpa’s dead, the veil is lifted!
ah yes
at 45 a woman reaches her perfection in every respect
I agree with Norman. A woman in her forties is like a flower in full bloom.
I agree with Norman and Tim but from her perspective she feels like hell because her estrogen is dropping like a rock. Unless she’s taking HRT which most of them are, not my woman though, she all natural.
it takes great skill and in depth awareness to hold her back from her wile-e-coyote episodes.
(and hide any sharp objects)
Another tanker hit today .
https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/2070804115509190704/photo/1
In the meanwhile Iran has fired missiles into Bahrain as retaliation .
Oh, dear! Conflict goes on and on, but perhaps at a lower level than before. “Simmers!”
Whoops missed this.
Let’s hope this is another light UAV blowing out windows like previous and the adjective simmers is not entirely accurate.
I think Art Berman described it best when he said it was more like a Netflix series. Except that the masses follow a Netflix series closer than this. I would not be surprised if 80 percent of Americans still think that their country is energy independent!
It all depends what this signifys. Cheapo flying lawnmower hits on previously destroyed bases or high tech munition hits on untouched covert facilities? One is a let’s get back to business the other is deterent communication and capability reduction The US strikes are attempts to end ability to police south channel. Hits on radars and some missile storage. Most all missile storage is under rock. The radar is not the high tech high dollar USA radar that Iran destroyed. It’s domestically produced and cheap commercial stuff used on bigger boats. Radar is disposable now. .
Iran likes the MOU. They want to keep selling oil. But they are going to enforce terms. The article five on MOU (not NATO)limited time no tolls for 60 days has different interpretations. USA wants to make it back to before. Iran wants to make it check in with fee waived. Either party ould have hit real hard. These are still love taps.
In the meantime traffic has dropped to nothing. Tik Tok to tank bottom. That’s Irans real tool. They are just fine with limited exchanges. Hear Any Iran statement about the “trilateral peace agreement” that destroys article one? Nope. Iran wants to be able to play kissy face now and then and roll doggys. Tank bottom is coming soon enough. Hi partner!
Iran does however expect terms of the MOU to be met but they will make a fuss depending what’s in their perceived interest.
Both sides are using leverage and tools to run to try and get behavioral outcomes from the other. Who knows what he red lines are. Right now Iran has doggys to roll.
At 60 days someone lets it slide or it’s back to real boom boom. Same for article one at some point. Right now it’s convenient so both sides are mum on article one.
Difficult clients.
All in good time.