Citizens seem to be clamoring for shutdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19. There is one major difficulty, however. Once an economy has been shut down, it is extremely difficult for the economy to recover back to the level it had reached previously. In fact, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more critical the problem is likely to be. China can shut down its economy for two weeks over the Chinese New Year, each year, without much damage. But, if the outage is longer and more widespread, damaging effects are likely.
A major reason why economies around the world will have difficulty restarting is because the world economy was in very poor shape before COVID-19 hit; shutting down major parts of the economy for a time leads to even more people with low wages or without any job. It will be very difficult and time-consuming to replace the failed businesses that provided these jobs.
When an outbreak of COVID-19 hit, epidemiologists recommended social distancing approaches that seemed to be helpful back in 1918-1919. The issue, however, is that the world economy has changed. Social distancing rules have a much more adverse impact on today’s economy than on the economy of 100 years ago.
Governments that wanted to push back found themselves up against a wall of citizen expectations. A common belief, even among economists, was that any shutdown would be short, and the recovery would be V-shaped. False information (really propaganda) published by China tended to reinforce the expectation that shutdowns could truly be helpful. But if we look at the real situation, Chinese workers are finding themselves newly laid off as they attempt to return to work. This is leading to protests in the Hubei area.
My analysis indicates that now, in 2020, the world economy cannot withstand long shutdowns. One very serious problem is the fact that the prices of many commodities (including oil, copper and lithium) will fall far too low for producers, leading to disruption in supplies. Broken supply chains can be expected to lead to the loss of many products previously available. Ultimately, the world economy may be headed for collapse.
In this post, I explain some of the reasons for my concerns.
[1] An economy is a self-organizing system that can grow only under the right conditions. Removing a large number of businesses and the corresponding jobs for an extended shutdown will clearly have a detrimental effect on the economy.
Figure 1. Chart by author, using photo of building toy “Leonardo Sticks,” with notes showing a few types of elements the world economy.
An economy is a self-organizing networked system that grows, under the right circumstances. I have attempted to give an idea of how this happens in Figure 1. This is an image of a child’s building toy. The growth of an economy is somewhat like building a structure with many layers using such a toy.
The precise makeup of the economy is constantly changing. New businesses are formed, and new consumers grow up and take jobs. Governments enact laws, partly to collect taxes, and partly to ensure fair treatment of all. Consumers decide which products to buy based on a combination of factors, including their level of wages, the prices being charged for the available goods, the availability of debt, and the interest rate on that debt. Resources of various kinds are used in producing goods and services.
At the same time, some deletions are taking place. Big businesses buy smaller businesses; some customers die or move away. Products that become obsolete are discontinued. The inside of the dome becomes hollow from the deletions.
If a large number of businesses are closed for an extended period, this will have many adverse impacts on the economy:
- Fewer goods and services, in total, will be made for the economy during the period of the shutdown.
- Many workers will be laid off, either temporarily or permanently. Goods and services will suddenly be less affordable for these former workers. Many will fall behind on their rent and other obligations.
- The laid off workers will be unable to pay much in taxes. In the US, state and local governments will need to cut back the size of their programs to match lower revenue because they cannot borrow to offset the deficit.
- If fewer goods and services are made, demand for commodities will fall. This will push the prices of commodities, such as oil and copper, very low.
- Commodity producers, airlines and the travel industry are likely to head toward permanent contraction, further adding to layoffs.
- Broken supply lines become problems. For example:
- A lack of parts from China has led to the closing of many automobile factories around the world.
- There is not enough cargo capacity on airplanes because much cargo was carried on passenger flights previously, and passenger flights have been cut back.
These adverse impacts become increasingly destabilizing for the economy, the longer the shutdowns go on. It is as if a huge number of deletions are made simultaneously in Figure 1. Temporary margins, such as storage of spare parts in warehouses, can provide only a temporary buffer. The remaining portions of the economy become less and less able to support themselves. If the economy was already in poor shape, the economy may collapse.
[2] The world economy was approaching resource limits even before the coronavirus epidemic appeared. This is not too different a situation than many earlier economies faced before they collapsed. Coronavirus pushes the world economy further toward collapse.
Reaching resource limits is sometimes described as, “The population outgrew the carrying capacity of the land.” The group of people living in the area could not grow enough food and firewood using the resources available at the time (such as arable land, energy from the sun, draft animals, and technology of the day) for their expanding populations.
Collapses have been studied by many researchers. The book Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyze eight agricultural economies that collapsed. Figure 2 is a chart I prepared, based on my analysis of the economies described in that book:
Figure 2. Chart by author based on Turchin and Nefedov’s Secular Cycles.
Economies tend to grow for many years before the population becomes high enough that the carrying capacity of the land they occupy is approached. Once the carrying capacity is hit, they enter a stagflation stage, during which population and GDP growth slow. Growing debt becomes an issue, as do both wage and wealth disparity.
Eventually, a crisis period is reached. The problems of the stagflation period become worse (wage and wealth disparity; need for debt by those with inadequate income) during the crisis period. Changes tend to take place during the crisis period that lead to substantial drops in GDP and population. For example, we read about some economies entering into wars during the crisis period in the attempt to gain more land and other resources. We also read about economies being attacked from outside in their weakened state.
Also, during the crisis period, with the high level of wage and wealth disparity, it becomes increasingly difficult for governments to collect enough taxes. This problem can lead to governments being overthrown because of unhappiness with high taxes and wage disparity. In some cases, as in the 1991 collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, the top level government simply collapses, leaving the next lower level of government.
Strangely enough, epidemics also seem to occur within collapse periods. The rising population leads to people living closer to each other, increasing the risk of transmission. People with low wages often find it increasingly difficult to eat an adequate diet. As a result, their immune systems easily succumb to new communicable diseases. Part of the collapse process is often the loss of a significant share of the population to a communicable disease.
Looking back at Figure 2, I believe that the current economic cycle started with the use of fossil fuels back in the 1800s. The world economy hit the stagflation period in the 1970s, when oil supply first became constrained. The Great Recession of 2008-2009 seems to be a marker for the beginning of the crisis period in the current cycle. If I am right in this assessment, the world economy is in the period in which we should expect crises, such as pandemics or wars, to occur.
The world was already pushing up against resource limits before all of the shutdowns took place. The shutdowns can be expected to push the world economy toward a more rapid decline in output per capita. They also appear to increase the likelihood that citizens will try to overthrow their governments, once the quarantine restrictions are removed.
[3] The carrying capacity of the world today is augmented by the world’s energy supply. A major issue since 2014 is that oil prices have been too low for oil producers. The coronavirus problem is pushing oil prices even lower yet.
Strangely enough, the world economy is facing a resource shortage problem, but it manifests itself as low commodity prices and excessive wage and wealth disparity.
Most economists have not figured out that economies are, in physics terms, dissipative structures. These are self-organizing systems that grow, at least for a time. Hurricanes (powered by energy from warm water) and ecosystems (powered by sunlight) are other examples of dissipative structures. Humans are dissipative structures, as well; we are powered by the energy content of foods. Economies require energy for all of the processes that we associate with generating GDP, such as refining metals and transporting goods. Electricity is a form of energy.
Energy can be used to work around shortages of almost any kind of resource. For example, if fresh water is a problem, energy products can be used to build desalination plants. If lack of phosphate rocks is an issue for adequate fertilization, energy products can be used to extract these rocks from less accessible locations. If pollution is a problem, fossil fuels can be used to build so-called renewable energy devices such as wind turbines and solar panels, to try to reduce future CO2 pollution.
The growth in energy consumption correlates quite well with the growth of the world economy. In fact, increases in energy consumption seem to precede growth in GDP, suggesting that it is energy consumption growth that allows the growth of GDP.
Figure 3. World GDP Growth versus Energy Consumption Growth, based on data of 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy and GDP data in 2010$ amounts, from the World Bank.
The thing that economists tend to miss is the fact that extracting enough fossil fuels (or commodities of any type) is a two-sided price problem. Prices must be both:
- High enough for companies extracting the resources to make an after tax profit.
- Low enough for consumers to afford finished goods made with these resources.
Most economists believe that an inadequate supply of energy products will be marked by high prices. In fact, the situation seems to be almost “upside down” in a networked economy. Inadequate energy supplies seem to be marked by excessive wage and wealth disparity. This wage and wealth disparity leads to commodity prices that are too low for producers. Current WTI oil prices are about $20 per barrel, for example (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate oil, based on EIA data.
The low-price commodity price issue is really an affordability problem. The many people with low wages cannot afford goods such as cars, homes with heating and air conditioning, and vacation travel. In fact, they may even have difficulty affording food. Spending by rich people does not make up for the shortfall in spending by the poor because the rich tend to spend their wealth differently. They tend to buy services such as tax planning and expensive private college educations for their children. These services require proportionately less commodity use than goods purchased by the poor.
The problem of low commodity prices becomes especially acute in countries that produce commodities for export. Producers find it difficult to pay workers adequate wages to live on. Also, governments are not able to collect enough taxes for the services workers expect, such as public transit. The combination is likely to lead to protests by citizens whenever the opportunity arises. Once shutdowns end, these countries are especially in danger of having their governments overthrown.
[4] There are limits to what governments and central banks can fix.
Governments can give citizens checks so that they have enough funds to buy groceries. This may, indeed, keep the price of food products high enough for food producers. There may still be problems with broken supply lines, so there may still be shortages of some products. For example, if there are eggs but no egg cartons, there may be no eggs for sale in grocery stores.
Central banks can act as buyers for many kinds of assets such as bonds and even shares of stock. In this way, they can perhaps keep stock market prices reasonably high. If enough gimmicks are used, perhaps they can even keep the prices of homes and farms reasonably high.
Central banks can also keep interest rates paid by governments low. In fact, interest rates can even be negative, especially for the short term. Businesses whose profitability has been reduced and workers who have been laid off are likely to discover that their credit ratings have been downgraded. This is likely to lead to higher interest costs for these borrowers, even if interest rates for the most creditworthy are kept low.
One area where governments and central banks seem to be fairly helpless is with respect to low prices for commodities used by industry, such as oil, natural gas, coal, copper and lithium. These commodities are traded internationally, so it is not just their own producers that need to be propped up; the market intervention needs to affect the entire world market.
One approach to raising world commodity prices would be to buy up large quantities of the commodities and store them somewhere. This is impractical, because no one has adequate storage for the huge quantities involved.
Another approach for raising world commodity prices would be to try to raise worldwide demand for finished goods and services. (Making more finished goods and services will use more commodities, and thus will tend to raise commodity prices.) To do this, checks would somehow need to go to the many poor people in the world, including those in India, Bangladesh and Nigeria, allowing these people to buy cars, homes, and other finished goods. Sending out checks only to people in one’s own economy would not be sufficient. It is unlikely that the US or the European Union would undertake a task such as this.
A major problem after many people have been out of work for a quite a while is the fact that many of these people will be behind on their regular payments, such as rent and car payments. They will be in no mood to buy a new vehicle or a new cell phone, simply because they have been offered a check that covers groceries and not much more. They will remain in a mode of cutting back on purchases, not adding more. Demand for most kinds of goods will remain low.
This lack of demand will make it difficult for business to have enough sales to make it profitable to reopen at the level of output that they had previously. Thus, employment and sales are likely to remain depressed even after the economy seems to be reopening. China seems to be having this problem. The Wall Street Journal reports China Is Open for Business, but the Postcoronavirus Reboot Looks Slow and Rocky. It also reports, Another Shortage in China’s Virus-Hit Economy: Jobs for College Grads.
[5] There is a significant likelihood that the COVID-19 problem is not going away, even if economies can “bend the trend line” with respect to new cases.
Bending the trend line has to do with trying to keep hospitals and medical providers from being overwhelmed. It is likely to mean that herd immunity is built up slowly, making repeat outbreaks more likely. Thus, if social isolation is stopped, COVID-19 illnesses can be expected to revisit prior locations. We know that this has been an issue in the past. The Spanish Flu epidemic came in three waves, over the years 1918-1919. The second wave was the most deadly.
A recent study by members of the Harvard School of Public Health says that the COVID-19 epidemic may appear in waves until into 2022. In fact, it could be back on a seasonal basis thereafter. It also indicates that more than one period of social distancing is likely to be required:
“A single period of social distancing will not be sufficient to prevent critical care capacities from being overwhelmed by the COVID-19 epidemic, because under any scenario considered it leaves enough of the population susceptible that a rebound in transmission after the end of the period will lead to an epidemic that exceeds this capacity.”
Thus, even if the COVID-19 problem seems to be fixed in a few weeks, it likely will be back again within a few months. With this level of uncertainty, businesses will not be willing to set up new operations. They will not hire many additional employees. The retired population will not run out and buy more tickets on cruise ships for next year. In fact, citizens are likely to continue to be worried about airplane flights being a place for transmitting illnesses, making the longer term prospects for the airline industry less optimistic.
Conclusion
The economy was already near the edge before COVID-19 hit. Wage and wealth disparity were big problems. Local populations of many areas objected to immigrants, fearing that the added population would reduce job opportunities for people who already lived there, among other things. As a result, many areas were experiencing protests because of unhappiness with the current economic situation.
The shutdowns temporarily cut back the protests, but they certainly do not fix the underlying situations. Instead, the shutdowns add to the number of people with very low wages or no income at all. The shutdowns also reduce the total quantity of goods and services available to purchase, regardless of how much money is added to the system. Many people will end up poorer, in some real sense.
As soon as the shutdowns end, it will be obvious that the world economy is in worse condition than it was before the shutdown. The longer the shutdowns last, the worse shape the world economy will be in. Thus, when businesses are restarted, we can expect even more protests and more divisive politics. Some governments may be overthrown, or they may collapse without being pushed. I fear that the world economy will be further down the road toward overall collapse.
Coronavirus: Japan warns deaths could hit 400,000 if no social distancing
A health ministry task force said over 800,000 people could get Covid-19 and half of them could die if social distancing and other measures are not followed.
https://flashbak.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/fear1964b1.jpg
They should have added a “0” to those figures just so they could put more fear into the Plebs. Eventually people will figure it out but for now it’s another dose of fear/hype/hysteria. That’s what governments do best so they can vacuum more control over peoples lives.
Half of them die??
Pretty ridiculous statement isn’t it?
Made up numbers to scare people, certainly – ‘Hide way or it’s a 50/50 chance of dying horribly.’
Rather embarrassing.
The Japanese Health Ministry actually said that without social distancing 850,000 people could fall seriously ill with covid-19 and of these a projected 420,000 would die.
Again … no mention of a law requiring masks….
Stay away from other people — be fearful of other people —- stay in your home.
37:00 mark
https://youtu.be/jGiTaQ60Je0
“The UK has received about 1.4m new benefit claims for welfare payments as the coronavirus lockdown freezes large sections of the economy.
““It’s now up to about 1.4m,” Work and Pensions Secretary Therese Coffey told the BBC…
https://www.cityam.com/uk-benefit-claims-surge-to-1-4m-as-coronavirus-economic-crisis-bites/
“…the Crisis in the Danish airline industry continues unabated. Now report also the Danish company Jet Time on the field with a cry for help to the government to avoid a looming bankruptcy.
“All employees except the lowest paid – are already gone 25% down in wages, including the company’s directors.”
https://www.globaldomainsnews.com/the-danish-airline-risks-bankruptcy-executives-go-down-in-salary
“Almost two in every three hoteliers [in Greece] think they might go bankrupt due to the tourism sector shutdown, while the vast majority of hotel owners expect their annual turnover to decline by more than 50 percent this year.”
https://www.ekathimerini.com/251672/article/ekathimerini/business/hotels-on-brink-of-bankruptcy
Danish airlines? Why bail out airlines that will never fly again? Donald Trump take note when it is Boeing rattling the begging bowl.
“Flooding financial markets with liquidity, as central banks have done, may prevent problems on the real side of the economy from destabilising financial institutions and markets.
“But doing so will not mend the economy or even halt its downward spiral.”
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-past-may-not-guide-us-through-this-crisis-20200415-p54k0w
“The global economic hit from the coronavirus crisis will likely be four times worse than the financial crisis and the U.S. will see its highest unemployment rate since World War II, according to a Goldman Sachs forecast.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/goldman-downturn-will-be-four-times-worse-than-the-financial-crisis.html
“US banking mammoth JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) reported a plunge in profit as it made a near $7 billion provision to cover potential loan defaults given huge disruption caused by Covid-19. Net income or profit fell by 69% to $2.87 billion…
“Wells Fargo simultaneously posted quarterly results. Profits also plunged as bad debt provisions soared.”
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/ii-view-grim-outlook-jp-morgan-profit-plunges-ii511283
“Three top House Democrats have asked the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) to explain how the agency is preparing for a financial crisis.
“The lawmakers’ letter to FDIC Chairman Jelena McWilliams, dated April 13, cited an independent report about weaknesses in the Fed’s crisis readiness.”
https://www.pymnts.com/coronavirus/2020/house-chairs-seek-briefing-on-fdic-crisis-readiness-during-pandemic/
The usual political grandstanding by useless hacks. You don’t worry about “crisis readiness” during a crisis; you worry about it well before the crisis arrives. Were any House Democrats (or Republicans) doing that? Of course not; that would be governance, and all they know is politics.
I can believe that. And central banks had a terrible time fixing the financial crisis.
Exactly> Liquidity doesn’t mend the underlying problems.
“The Energy Information Administration sees U.S. oil production from shale formations falling from roughly 8.71 million barrels per day this month to less than 8.53 million in May.
“The latest estimates published Monday show how the price and demand collapse is taking hold as producers scale back operations in the saturated and coronavirus-stricken market.”
https://www.axios.com/us-shale-oil-production-slowdown-779b77d8-cc77-4ef3-b882-d61ea1f8795e.html
“After a station in Cleveland, Ohio, sold gas for 94 cents per gallon, a station in Kentucky took the crown with an advertised gas price for 93 cents per gallon, according to Gas Buddy.
“Incredibly, the price at the Cleveland-based station was actually up from March 29, when it sold a gallon of gas for just 89 cents.”
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/gas-prices-average-drop-kentucky-station-us/
“Murray Energy Corp., the nation’s largest private coal producer, said Tuesday it is negotiating to resolve lenders’ allegations that it breached its $450 million chapter 11 financing package.
“Murray has been cut off from its bankruptcy financing after lenders alleged a series of breaches to their credit agreement…”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/murray-lenders-claim-breaches-of-450-million-bankruptcy-loan-11586896755
“The IEA’s warning that global demand will fall to its lowest since 1995 in April has added to the gloom in the market – sending US crude reeling to just $19.20.
“That’s its lowest level since 2002, and show Opec’s attempt to prop the price up is failing.”
It could be just a tech glitch for the moment or something but google search stopped showing leveraged oil short stock’s full graph a week ago. It’s kind of strange, because this retail tool allowed paupers to make in Q1 theoretical ~10 000% on the last downswing, I commented back then only on the evolving easy 250-500% gains as not that greedy or timing perfect.. The “peak oil” forums frequented theory of ever dropping oil price wedge was proven correct and very profitable in 2016 and now 2020 .
Obviously it doesn’t matter now after the event, since all important ETFs are being massaged now for a systemic support reason, so you can’t expect to use it anymore in realistic ways, and likely next volatility of such extent would mean complete market facade obliteration so the gains won’t be allowed to cash out.
Gasoline? What’s that? I have no use for gasoline. I barely use a litre per week……
And probably even less going forward.
The Grade 3 Teacher has now extended the NZ Lockdown into May. It was scheduled to end next Wednesday.
How many billion more is that gonna cost Jacinda? I am seriously considering having HO lay me off — so I can get a sliver of that wasted cash… and buy some high grade blow…. and a disco ball…
Guess what Jacinda you feeble-minded tool…. you will NEVER get infections down to ZERO. Not unless you shoot dead every person in this country.
Let me gather my thoughts here… calm down … of course this is Option B… CDP…. it’s not your decision …
Let’s face it — this lockdown will end … when the world ends….
Time to place some orders for some very, very nice wine…. at least they are still delivering.
http://www.rhythmboat.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/petulant-frenzy-.jpg
“As trade walls go up and governments panic about preserving their own food sources, the coronavirus threatens to disrupt global supply chains.
“Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, is limiting grain exports from April to June. Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, has ramped up grain purchases and stopped exports of legumes.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/14/how-to-stop-food-crisis-coronavirus-economy-trade/
““The story the data tells is that companies are faced with a lengthy recovery to normal [supply chain] operations in the wake of the virus outbreak,” said Thomas W. Derry, CEO of ISM.
““For a majority of U.S. businesses, lead times have doubled, and that shortage is compounded by the shortage of air and ocean freight options to move product to the United States — even if they can get orders filled.””
https://www.sdcexec.com/transportation/press-release/21128379/institute-for-supply-management-ism-75-of-companies-see-supply-chain-disruptions-due-to-coronavirus
Supply chains will be a huge problem.
i read recently that a new Egyptian baby is born every 18 seconds, while they are just putting the finishing touches to the Renaissance dam in Ethiopia.
interesting times ahead
“Middle East economies are set to suffer a huge economic hit this year because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Their situation is being exacerbated by domestic political turmoil and the collapse in oil prices.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2020/04/14/middle-east-economic-downturn-great-lockdown/#3dd19d2638c4
“Direct cash transfers and income tax relief for citizens and residents are not real options in the GCC: There is not personal income tax to refund, and it is not in the long-term interests of Gulf governments to subsidize salaries of foreign workers…
“The bank sector in the GCC is especially vulnerable because the proportion of loans that local banks extend to the government or to government-related entities has been rising since 2009.”
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/04/gcc-economy-covid19-coronavirus-banks-save.html
“… it is not in the long-term interests of Gulf governments to subsidize salaries of foreign workers…”
Of course, if the Gulf governments really want a servile revolt that will make Spartacus look like a boy scout, they now know exactly what to do. All it needs is for one firebrand to say “ye are many, they are few”.
So the banks depend on the government already in Gulf economies.
Middle Eastern economies were already on the edge because of low prices.
“An increasing number of countries could default on their debt in the coming 12-18 months as governments globally increase spending to limit the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic, an economist said on Wednesday.
““I do think we will see some issues there, possibly we could see a euro zone crisis come back with countries like Greece or Italy … likely to be at the center of that,” Simon Baptist, global chief economist at consultancy The Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection.”
““Across the emerging world, I’ll pick out countries like South Africa and Brazil as being likely to suffer a further crisis as a result of this,” he added. “And, of course, Argentina has effectively gone back into sovereign default already.””
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/coronavirus-more-countries-could-default-on-debt-economist-says.html
“Mexican business leaders begged President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to announce a stimulus package for an already ailing economy about to be battered further by the coronavirus pandemic. But López Obrador balked at the idea of bailouts and tax breaks.”
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/14/covid-19-coronavirus-crisis-deepens-mexicos-misery/2985920001/
“Turkey is on shaky ground and its currency depreciating as controversial monetary moves and fast-rising coronavirus cases threaten to plunge an already fragile economy into much more danger…
““There will be hard times ahead, because Turkey was already at a macroeconomically vulnerable position before the coronavirus hit.””
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/coronavirus-in-turkey-economy-in-trouble-as-case-numbers-shoot-up.html
Can all of these countries really deliver stimulus packages to their people? Mexico used to be an oil exporter. It earned tax revenue on its exports and used these to help reduce tax needs elsewhere. Now it needs a whole lot more taxes, but more people are out of work.
This is not a surprise!
macarona
https://youtu.be/8kOf8MaaoB4
the WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-death-toll-in-europe-likely-far-higher-than-first-reported-11586896486?tesla=y
“Newly published figures show deaths linked to the new coronavirus in the U.K. have far exceeded preliminary estimates, adding to a growing body of evidence across Europe that closely watched daily death tallies don’t reveal the virus’s true toll.”
it’s just the flu… (sarc)…
I stand with the healthcare workers and the victims!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1249495857403056128
https://twitter.com/JoeySalads/status/1249463627733594113
Obviously there are a lot of hospitals half-empty due to all planned operations, procedures, consultations etc being cancelled so they are ready in case a wave of ill people hits them.
‘in case’. We’re more likely to get invaded by spa~ce al-iens.
Ya and the Covid wards are empty too …. and Javits Centre is completely devoid of Covids too…. lots of military people though…. scary … huh
What are military personnel doing at a makeshift hospital IN *ew York?
“it’s just the flu… (sarc)…” Holy shot, it’s worse than the Bubonic Plague…people are dying left and right and the medical industry and the government who were are suppose to trust in this crisis, are hiding the TRUE mortality rate! We need to give them more power to restrict human movement and behavior. We need to isolate each and every person away from each other. Everyone should be wearing a hazmat suit at ALL TIMES except for bathing. (not sarc).
WRITE AN E-MAIL TO YOUR LOCAL REPRESENTATIVE.
TELL HIM TO:
BAN FACE TO FACE CONTACT.
STERILIZE WASTE WATER AND GARBAGE.(not sarc).
Except that natural processes use bacteria and other micro-organisms. Also, sterilizing everything things takes energy that could be used for other purposes and chemicals that pollute the landscape. This is not going to happen.
OH my god … the virus is inside the perimeter….. it’s crawling into my brain…. OMG….. push the button … push the button …. we have to blow civilization to kingdom come… to save it!!!
Lockerdown and blower up!!!!!
https://futureoflife.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/nuclear_explosion_town.jpg
every death is a macarona death
Thats why the death from all causes death number is deep dark secret.
Lie after lie after lie after lie……
Here, FE – I know you’re going to have fun with this one. 😀
“London’s Nightingale Hospital sat almost empty with just 19 coronavirus patients treated over the Easter weekend.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8218299/Londons-Nightingale-Hospital-sits-19-coronavirus-patients-treated-Easter.html
Thanks.
Somehow I would not be shocked to discover that the Boris thing was a big ol hoxxxx…..
I must remind myself that it’s better than the alternative — as I am watching
https://youtu.be/jGiTaQ60Je0
How can that be when advanced mortality estimates in the UK were simply all over the place?
I recall the guess at the likely total of infected over 1 year ranging between 40 and 80% of the population, and now we are being told that a study circulating in govt. states that infections will be 100% – obvious nonsense.
I also recall the suggested mortality rate ranging from 0.06 to 5%.
It’s a serious disease in the severe form, certainly, but the stuff being bandied about by epidemiologists is mostly sheer nonsense, just shots in the dark.
Both the number of illnesses and the number of deaths are undercounted, making it had to match things up.
If we had tests showing what percentage of the population became immune, and compared that to excess deaths (with an appropriate lag), that would give us a better estimate of what share of those who had the illness died. Of course, if a lot of people don’t get immunity at all, then the “benefit” of that disappears from the denominator.
https://i0.wp.com/www.quotespedia.info/images/lies/mark_twain_lies_344.jpg
https://news.yahoo.com/york-city-coronavirus-deaths-suspected-more-10-000-224216474.html
in NYC the C19 related deaths were probably undercounted…
Because everyone who dies in NYC is a macarona victim per order of Qoh mo? These are win wins. Doctors get their billing codes. Qmo gets his publicity. WINNING.
WINNING!!!
http://www.infomercial-hell.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/charlie-sheen-teeth.jpg
Haven’t heard much from Charles lately… let’s check in on his WINNING lifestyle:
The actor, 54, shaded his face with a pair of sunglasses and a baseball cap that read: ‘SANTA MONICA POLICE’ as he stepped out in Malibu. Comedian Charlie hit headlines after he vehemently denied Feldman’s claims that he raped 13 year old Corey Haim on a film set in 1986.
Earlier this month, the Major League star said the allegations in My Truth: The Rape of Two Coreys were ‘sick and twisted’ and claimed the supposed attack never happened. ‘These sick, twisted and outlandish allegations never occurred. Period,’ Sheen’s publicist said in a statement.
Oh… seems like he’s overcome his issues… let’s have a look
https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/story/2020-03-10/corey-feldman-documentary-sexual-abuse
Yes… of course they are!!!! They are probably 50x higher!!!!
And rats will soon eat your babies brain….
At this point Don and his team are ROARING DRUNK and pi ssing off the balcony onto people on the street …. you should hear them ‘du m b fkkkking m or ons…. they’ll believe ANY-THING…. bahahahahawwwaaahhh… what should we say next… oh I know … you can catch it from sniffing a person’s fart who is asymptomatic bahahahhaahah that’s excellent — ping Cooper and tell him CNN can have the exclusive…. but they need to take us golfing next time we’re in NY’
https://news.trust.org/item/20200414214724-hfp57
“April 14 (Reuters) – U.S. coronavirus deaths rose by at least 2,228 on Tuesday, a single-day record, to top 28,300, according to a Reuters tally, as officials debated how to reopen the economy without reigniting the outbreak.”
answer: reopen the economy even if it reignites the outbreak…
but then so many grandma’s and grandpa’s lives would be at stake…
and anyway, it’s too late…
the reopening will be 50% of the 2019 level…
at best…
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2017/10/31/well/family/well-fear-bed/well-fear-bed-videoSixteenByNineJumbo1600.jpg
BREAKING NEWS : Terrorists have been licking door knobs and elevator buttons across New York City Spreading the Death Virus. Thousands upon Thousands of Infections IMMINENT. Pre the Javits Centre!!!!
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/airbnb-raises-another-1-billion-in-debt.html
“Airbnb is raising another $1 billion in debt as it pads its balance sheet to get through the COVID-19 crisis, according to sources with knowledge of the deal.
Fidelity, T Rowe Price and Blackrock are participating along with Apollo and Oaktree.
Airbnb is paying about 9 percent interest on the debt.”
Airbnb may or may not really believe that they can “get through” this crisis…
my guess is that they suspect that they can’t… but why not try to raise some money via debt which they won’t have to pay off anyway if they go bankrupt?
obvious outcome: the top dogs there will continue to rake in their high salaries until they go bankrupt, which is inevitable because the entire travel industry is toast…
Air bnb can go bust but none of the players you mentioned can. They are going to make a mint while they lend airbnb at 9% with repo they get from fedrica at 0% for a while. Then air bnb goes onto fed books its collateral value written in stone so the players dont go bust. Fedrica with zombie balance sheet in 3 2 1. And Fedrica WANTS and desperately NEEDS a zombie balance sheet to inflate this universe of debt into mere trillions as we leap into the quadrillion era.
Let’s pretend this is not the end of the world….
Airbnb is doomed no matter what:
They lost USD276+ million dollars in Q4 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/airbnb-s-loss-nearly-doubles-in-fourth-quarter-before-virus-hit
During the protests in HK, hotel rates crashed hard. Airbnb’s business was destroyed because people choose Airbnb because they like the idea of getting more space for less money than a hotel (they are even willing to overlook the complete lack of service you get when you rent a Airbnb… no daily room clean…no concierge… no help with luggage… you get jack sh it… but I digress)….
With a great many units listed on Airbnb the owner is paying someone to clean the apartment. If hotel rates crash – hosts on Airbnb must drastically reduce their rates to compete….
When rates drop below a certain threshold the owners say screw this… I am making next to nothing when I factor in my running costs (cleaning is a big one…) + the wear and tear …. and they pull the unit off Airbnb altogether and put a long term tenant into it (or they leave it empty)
At the moment Airbnb will be bleeding huge amounts of cash — and that is not going to improve anytime soon…. there are calls for a minimum 6 month ban on international air travel…. and even if that does not happen – and the virus disappears in say two months — we are NOT going to return to the old normal… many people won’t be able to afford or want to travel … the scars will be deep…
So how does that play out for Airbnb?
HK is the model — there will be a massive oversupply of hotel rooms globally — so rates are going to remain ultra low for a very long time…sure some hotels will go under … but it will take ages to drive rates higher….
Airbnb hosts won’t be able to and/or won’t bother to try to compete….
Airbnb was bleeding heavily during during the good times…. they are going to hemorrhage red ink indefinitely under the ‘new normal’…. will VC’s continue to infuse them…. what about the banks?
Softwank is imploding …. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/its-perfect-storm-softbank-reports-staggering-25-billion-q1-loss
If that behemoth goes down … every single company whose business model involves burning money with no path to profitability…. is a dead man walking….
No longer will investors ignore the burn … they only ignore it because each new round of investment increased the valuation of the company…. when there are no new rounds or the rounds DECREASE the value of the company …. then they will get right ornery…. and they will lazer focus on that other metric — profitability…
And if you have neither — then they will ditch these companies like Brad Pitt would a fat pimpled date at the prom when the prom queen invites him out back for a roll in the hay….
https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/150114123933-dnt-tn-teen-bullied-for-selling-prom-dress-on-facebook-00012804-large-169.jpg
Norm – what I am thinking is how in the he–ll does someone pile on so much blubber in such a short period of time… she’d be what – 18?????
We shouldn’t be surprised about Softbank. According to the article,
And AirBnb has been trying to undercut the prices of hotels. That no longer is working.
I tried Airbnb ONCE… during a HK trip … the photos of the property were completely misrepresentative of the actual flat. They were either photoshopped or they were of the place many years ago. It was a dump – and I mean dump.
And to top it off the owner had a laminated paper explaining how we were to lie if a government inspector showed up asking if we were short term guests…. it is illegal to rent for less than a month in HK unless you have a guest house license (expensive + lots of regulations) – none of the Airbnb hosts have that.
So I get on the phone to Airbnb and tell them I want out with the two weeks payment refunded in full.
Hum haw etc….. blah blah blah …
Excuse me says FE — here’s what is going to happen if you don’t stop with the BS
I will put this phone down then I will call the government authority and report the owner of this property (it is a criminal offence if you get busted)
My next call will be to the SCMP where I will report this incident and will also inform them that I have reported the situation to Airbnb and they are aware that this property is being let illegally but doing nothing about it (i.e. exposing their hosts to legal action)
Or you can refund me now.
Ok – we will refund your fees.
Oh and guess what – I took photos of the dump and they clearly depict busted taps, torn wall paper etc etc… and sent them to Airbnb… and they refused to force the host to update their photos.
And to top it off I was able to get a fantastic room with a harbour view closer to my office for LESS than the dump.
I suspect she’s learning to sing, so when she does, it’s over.
Perhaps that is part of the way the system works.
many of us saw this coming days ago:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/oil-markets-coronavirus-pandemic-us-shale-in-focus.html
“Oil prices shed more than 10% on Tuesday, with investors apparently unconvinced that record supply cuts could soon balance markets pummeled by the coronavirus pandemic…”
“U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 10.26% to settle at $20.11 per barrel…”
WTI now $20.59… heading soon for prices in the teens…
we have spent the last century getting drunk on oil
now we are at the point of passing out through oil excess. We find ourselves prostrate, unable to take any more
but just as with any drunk—there will always be those insisting on buying another round
Cuckoo … Cuckooo…Cuckoo….
It’s 3pm in New Zealand. Welcome to the early edition of Time to Mock GGEEEETA. Sometimes it’s at 4pm … sometimes 2pm… sometimes 10pm… and some days it’s not at all.
Fast Eddy was playing with Facebook today… making up a fake account actually. Fast Eddy invented an Environmental Organization… logo and everything. It’s based in sparkling clean Queenstown….
Then what Fast did was invent an Annual Prize … Fast took an old hockey trophy… painted it green … and voila… the Queenstown Global Environmental Leaders Award.
Sounds good … huh?
Then guess what Fast did next….. ok you’ll never guess in a million years and we are down to the last few weeks before extinction and it would be a shame if you were to starve without knowing … so I will tell ya’ll…
I went to Geeeettttas Facebook page … and used the Send Message option …. and Fast Eddy informed Geetaa that she was the winner of the Award for 2020 (and being men tall y re tar ded she did not even think to ask hang on 2020 has barely started — and you are awarding the winner already???)…
Nope Geettta so happy happy!!!
Fast then informed Geeeta that the award is sponsored by Philip Mills a very wealthy entrepreneur who has a green initiative called the Pure Advantage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillip_Mills (always good to involve at least some truth when pulling a ruse huh?)
Then Fast informed Geeta that the award ceremony would be held at the https://www.robertsonlodges.com/the-lodges/matakauri (USD3000 a night or something crazy like that).
The ceremony is scheduled to take place at the end of June provided the Coronavirus Crisis has abated (she didn’t know what that world meant so Fast explained it….)
Mr Mills would like to arrange for his private jet to pick her up and bring her back home — she’ll have 4 free nights accommodation at the Lodge.
Geeeta was giddy — she said that she would definitely like to come but that she would need to bring at least one parent with her.
To which Fast Eddy said, not a problem… the private jet can seat 8 people comfortably so you may bring both your parents (you can bring Justin and his entourage as well — Fast was thinking….)
Geeta took Fast’s telephone number and said she’d pass them to her parents so that we can firm up the arrangements.
And Fast took screen shots of all the messages … time stamps… you know… all that stuff that one might want when one is in the process of destroying a MO re On/hippocritter….
I wonder if her pappa… will put 2 and 2 together when he rings the phone number I gave him and gets…. https://www.theclubqueenstown.co.nz/contact-us
Of course he will — after he looks at GGEeeta message history…..
Fast is thinking there will be much wailing and moaning in Stockholm this week as the Family dreads the publishing of the screen shots in the MSM.
And to show the Family that Fast is not the SOB they think he is…. he’s going to donate the money raised from selling the screen shots to charity… 🙂 🙂 🙂
As the say.. Stay Tuned for More … as Fast Eddy Mocks GEeeeta…..Geeeeeetttaaah….
http://krapps.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/LadyHuhFINAL.jpg
HEY BOB and other GEEETA fans…..
Are you
a) angry with FE
b) disappointed in GT
Surely not a…..
I think some kind of logging charity would be most appropriate. Or maybe you can subsidize Japanese school lunches with whale meat?
regarding the NZ lodge, i wonder how long the overstuffed couches and chairs hold up out in the sunshine (UV blast) and rain? maybe they put plastic covers on them when not set for a camera shoot or when it rains there? also, what’s with all the grey? all that nice scenery and all they could think of was grey with while highlights? maybe artleads can comment?
you naughty boy, did you really take screen shots of her replies? you must share those on OFW.
last month, the conspiracy was moon landings—lots of dashing about, waving ‘fake photos’ to ‘prove’ fakery
too funny for words really—I assumed it was a joke, a windup. I (and others) had to puncture the moon balloon by pointing out that the photos themselves were such bad fakes, they had to have been produced by a kid photoshopping in his back bedroom. Thankfully that killed it. Much to we doomsters relief I think.
So come April, the conspiracy is coronavirus. As if the entire medical establishment of the world is going to conspire to deliver this weird stuff.
Just like the moonballoon, lots of shouty caps and exclamation marks and disconnected paragraphs of meaningless babble. (except to you of course)
Eddy, last year, (before you were abducted by aliens, or you went into that Tibetan monastery to learn Kung Phooey, and your mind was diddled with,) you were a reasonable commenter in OFW. offering balanced views on stuff.
Now, the comments rate on here heads towards 4000, but half of them are from you, spouting conspiracy—usually in caps.
Doesn’t this strike you as odd? Or a trifle hyper-active?
So what’s next on the conspiracy agenda?
Today is the 75th anniversay of the liberation of Buchenwald. Now there’s a conspracy worth signing up for, that the holocaust never happened. Millions to agree with you. That would be a good one for May I thought.
Then for June, what about the Gates conspiracy, that Bill and Melinda want to vaccinate everybody in order to control their brains? How dyou feel about that one? Sounds good to me.
For July, I thought the conspiracy about phone hubs in the street beng the ongoing cause of coronavirus. Or cancer, or something. Workmen installing them are being attacked. (true folks)
August conspiracy is vacant as yet. All suggestions welcome
I’m suggesting spacing out the conspiracies this way, for general convenience. If you don’t do that, the shouting matches tend to overlap, and we lose track of which conspiracy we are all arguing about
well i do anyway
Good plan! Lol!
What’s on FE’s mind….
Let’s take a tour… there are no corners …. it’s more like a maze… than a box….
Not like your mind Norman… square.. you have lots of walls and dead ends…..
Half the comments from FE? My mind is thinking — I bet the traffic on OFW is through the roof… I am thinking FE deserves a star on the street in Hollywood…
In a righteous world he would have a Gulfstream and fly around the world to give talks — in the worlds biggest stadia … tickets would sell for $575 each (VIP$10,000) and every talk would be sold out.
What else is on my mind? I’m thinking about how to make GeetAH and her pappy twist in the wind a little… before deciding what to do with these screen shots….
Then I am thinking … shall I read Dave’s 9-11 essay? Because as anyone with an IQ over 80 would know — that’s the Mother of all Lies…. if you think the m ooon stuff is laughable… 9-11 is the George Carlin of C.Ts…
BTW – did I mention I have a bruther who is an architect — many years ago he worked for these cats https://www.som.com/ designing tall buildings — buildings similar to the Twin Towers …
His take on 9-11…. he laughs at it — you cannot melt girders top to bottom like that … and girders do not fall horizontally — that was obviously a controlled demolition…
Controlled Demolition … where have we heard that before.
That’s what’s on my mind ad I finish loading up the machine with coal — have a coffee and prepare for another day in total LOCKDOWN.
What’s on your mind Norm? Let me guess… the same thing that’s on your mind day after day … year after year… the same old boring stuff about how everything is reliant on cheap oil….
Back to what’s on FE’s mind … I’m thinking Norm thinks he’s a great thinker…. but he’s not…. he sees the world in very simplistic terms…. he’s captured by the MSM… totally un-curious…
Unwilling to even look under the rock even though a number of great thinkers on OFW have said wow – look what we found under THIS rock…. it’s one of the most marvelous things we have ever seen….
But Norm won’t look — or even if he does he dismisses what it is because he is unable to appreciate or understand greatness….
I’m thinking … you are rather boring Norm…. and your condescending attitude towards those of us who attempt to look beyond the MSM narrative on universtally acceptd ‘truths’ might be irritating .. but it’s not…
How can I explain this … oh I know…. let’s use ice hockey as an example…. someone asked me to come and play in a social league once upon a time…. these are mostly older players who are uninterested/unable to play in the competitive league along with younger adults who are just plain sh itty…
Not that I am a superstar or anything like that (you can’t compare FE on OFW to FE on the ice… FE is Wayne Gretzky on OFW)… but social league at that level is not challenging…. but one of my mates asked me to play for their team once — so I coasted about at half speed…
Ignoring the flailing neophytes — who try to make up for their incompetence by hacking and slashing me …. not understanding that in the real world if you play like that you better be prepared to fight.. or get slammed into the boards…
Until one dude decided he’d have a serious go at FE and he tried to elbow me in the head as I came up on him (this is a non contact league)…. so rather that go around him I cut hard into him and slammed him rather hard into the ice… as I had the puck it was more like he was in my way and got steamrolled…. (the ref saw it as some crap player elbowed a much better player and the better player ran him over — so blamed FE…)
That of course caused a ruckus…. the guy said ‘your team has been slashing us and hitting us all game’ …. to which I said — ‘I have not slashed or hit any of you …. if I were to hit you you would surely remember that’…
This was late in the match — the ref cancelled the last few minutes (we were winning 8-1 or something ridiculous)….
And I never played in the social league again….
That’s not an option on OFW…. there are plenty of social league players on OFW — and they are generally treated as pylons by the super stars…. Norm, you are a pylon as well but — but once in awhile you insist on taking cheap shots and the super stars… and you get flattened….
That’s what’s on my mind.
https://multifiles.pressherald.com/uploads/sites/4/2011/07/portland-press-herald_3563349-601×1024.jpg
i don’t think I need to add to that—says more than I ever could
even threw in 9/11 for good measure
This is war! War, I say! War!
Coronavirus latest news: Donald Trump pulls World Health Organisation funding and accuses body of virus ‘cover-up’
President Trump has announced that the United States will stop funding the World Health Organisation, accusing it of covering up the seriousness of the coronavirus outbreak in China before it spread around the world.
According to Mr Trump, WHO prevented transparency over the outbreak and the United States – the UN body’s biggest funder which provided $400 million last year – will now “discuss what to do with all that money that goes to the WHO.”
He said that the WHO had not sent experts into China quickly enough when the outbreak first emerged and took the assurances from that country’s leaders “at face value”.
Mr Trump said had the WHO “done its job” by getting experts into China swiftly then “the outbreak could have been contained at its sources with very little death”. The US president suggested thousands of lives could have been saved by such action.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-latest-news-care-home-death-toll-lift-lockdown/
WHO are you gonna believe?
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/14/world-health-organization-stopped-medical-experts-from-recommending-coronavirus-travel-bans/
“Medical experts wanted to recommend travel bans for nations to help stop the spread of the Chinese coronavirus in the early days of the pandemic. World Health Organization (WHO) bureaucrats stopped them from making those recommendations.”
“The WHO bureaucrats met with the experts in Geneva, Switzerland, and successfully stopped them from suggesting travel bans as a life-saving solution to stop the spread of the coronavirus.”
WHO are you… doo doo… doo doo…
The only travel ban that might have worked would have been with respect to travel in and out of China, starting December 1, 2019, if the epidemic started in November. In fact, there should have been a travel ban out of Wuhan, the minute that it became clear that a lab accident had happened. And a whole lot of contact tracing.
Otherwise, the “horse was out of the barn.” At this point, the travel bans are more related to social distancing than anything else. They keep people from infecting other people on the airplane. But there are lots of infections at both ends, regardless of the travel bans.
The current head of the WHO was appointed by China, after more than the usual amount of arm twisting and bribery. His mission was to turn the organisation into a wholly owned subsidiary of the Chinese Communist Party. He has done rather well, don’t you think?
I wonder how many international organizations will exist one year rom now. Who will have money to fund the United Nations, for example? Or the EU. Or the IMF.
Corona needs a shutdown only because the health system was so nickel and dimed to death to rescue the bankers. And why had the bankers been in need? Because economy was limited by high oil production costs and had not developed like in the past. The slope down to lower complexity will make us dig up potatoes, can feel my back already!
You’re not going to have the right to grow your food.
You won’t have the right to be outside where you might…conspire with other people to spread disease.
You will have the right to be at the mercy of the state that will provide you where your food rations.
This, appears to be the path the ruling class will take forward whether they claim to be social democrats or libertarians.
This is not a conspiracy theory. Several members of the elite have openly said that the crisis is an OPPORTUNITY to RADICALLY change the economy.
I used some graphing software that you can use as well to look at a few COVID-19 indications. The software is available at this link.
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR10biLpwk–EaldWkeF4uiaHuBcShjsdHa5s-s_E14Lwbf4yROZhnu17Q0
It becomes clear that Spain is having more trouble than pretty much any other European country. This is a chart showing Spain, Italy, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States cumulative confirmed cases, per 1 million population. The software sets the start date in each country by when that country hits 1 case per million people. This is why the lines are of varying lengths. In some sense, they start when the virus “took hold” in that economy. Spain is clearly on top, with United States, Italy, and France closely bunched below it. UK comes up behind, but perhaps because it wasn’t testing as much.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/cumulative-covid-cases-5-countries-april-13.png
If we look at cumulative deaths for the same five countries, we get a different pattern. Here, the software “moves back” the line for each economy to the point where the economy hits 1 death per million population. So it is a different amount of adjustment and on the reported cases (making it a bit confusing). If deaths are low to begin with they will be moved back relatively more. In this situation, we see Spain still clearly on top, with Italy, France, and the United Kingdom appearing to be on the same trajectory. The US comes out way behind. (It would be even “more behind” if the line had not been cut off as early as it was.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/cumulative-covid-deaths-5-countries-april-13.png
We can also look at newly reported COVID cases and newly reported COVID deaths by day, to see whether they are showing that a top is being reached. I have shown only three countries (Spain, Italy, and UK) on these charts, because adding UK and France makes them too “noisy” and hard to look at. In fact, all three countries seem to be showing a top to reported cases.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/new-covid-cases-us-spain-italy-april-13.png
Total reported cases in Spain hit a peak on March 25 at a relatively much higher level than other countries. Some blame this on cheek-kissing greetings. One article says that the government imposed a national lockdown on March 14, so it seems to have taken until March 25 (11 days) to reflect the full build-up of cases. But after that, new reported cases started down.
With respect to Italy in the above chart, the first lockdown started February 21 around Lombardy, and was extended to a national quarantine March 9. The early start of the quarantine kept the cases relatively lower than in Italy. Italy’s peak in new cases came on March 21, which is 12 days after the quarantine began.
The United States has a “flatter” top to its pattern than Spain and Italy, perhaps reflecting its large size and greater diversity of populations that might at some point be affected.
New deaths by day also seem to be down in Spain and Italy. They seem to be down in the US too.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/new-covid-deaths-spain-italy-us-april-13.png
This chart also shows that US deaths relative to population, are far lower than in Spain and Italy.
I won’t bore you with a full set of charts showing US state data, but it is clear the New York and New Jersey are far ahead of other states in terms of reported COVID cases relative to population.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/cumulative-covid-cases-new-york-new-jersey-georgia-washington-california-april-13.png
Death statistics, relative to population, for New York and New Jersey are far higher as well.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/cumulative-covid-deaths-new-york-new-jersey-georiga-california-washington-april-13.png
A person starts to think that population density is important in the number of cases. But other things as well.
How come we never see Taiwan on these maps? Is it because it would be too close to the baseline?
Yes, it seems population density is a major factor for the US. Furthermore, as some predicted, it’s also more about the pre-existing overall leveraged distance and size factor for most of the US, meaning larger shop areas, larger cars and parking lots, .. All it helps to tame spreading of this kind of virus vs more densely packed living arrangements in RoW. Obviously, how is it going to work in the future due to likely reinfection sourced from larger urban centers is unclear, but yet again it’s likely going to relatively not that bad. Also, as mentioned before some habits might be keepers like more teleworking less flying in the future, which will again pushed down the reinfections.
How exactly is the US going deal with the elevated unemployment is open question, but the docile pop and political class might be hinting we still need to wait for GFC_ver3 under a decade or so.. So for now enjoy another installment of borrowed time.
what is your country? (your English is very good… what is your native tongue?)…
“How exactly is the US going to deal with…”
here in the USA (perhaps most everywhere else), the yearly cycle of life feels like it is set to the school year… as children, we went off to school at the end of Summer, and so that time is one of a new restart to daily life…
how are we in the USA going to deal with the end of Summer?
not very well… that is when the real economic horrrors will be showing up…
no jobs for 30 40 50 % of parents of college kids… after July 1st the colleges will be expecting the payments for these students to start rolling in… and 30 40 50 % of these payments will not be coming… these students will be unable to attend college AND guess what, they won’t be able to find jobs, just like their parents…
by the end of Summer, most Americans will be feeling like it is another Great Depression…
we (many of us at OFW anyway) already know that there is a global depression underway right now…
in a few months, public awareness will catch up…
peace to you…
It’s interesting to me that some of the comments I’ve been reading on the message boards sounds like things are already back to “normal”!?
There will be a great epiphany by the end of summer, if not before then.
Also, when lockdowns try to end, and there are even more layoffs.
«In Ancient Greek folklore, a phoenix (/ˈfiːnɪks/; Ancient Greek: φοῖνιξ, phoînix) is a long-lived bird that cyclically regenerates or is otherwise born again. Associated with the sun, a phoenix obtains new life by arising from the ashes of its predecessor. Some legends say it dies in a show of flames and combustion, others that it simply dies and decomposes before being born again» (wiki)
Here are two believers in a GREEN Phoenix:
https://carbontracker.org/covid-19-and-the-energy-transition/
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/put-clean-energy-at-the-heart-of-stimulus-plans-to-counter-the-coronavirus-crisis
Thanks! I see the second one is written by Fatih Birol of the IEA. These folks never stop. Once you have put together something that is really a fairy tale, it is easy to embellish on it. Models are marvelous things. They don’t have to match up much at all to reality. They allow a person to forecast a rosy future, when the future is filled with storm clouds.
https://www.ft.com/content/d5f05b5c-7db8-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84?segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6
“The world economy is now collapsing,” is the title of the article. Financial Times gets that one correct. Unfortunately, without a subscription, that is all I can read.
Fast Eddy has no subscriptions to FT or Bloomberg or Telegraph or any other site… yet he never runs into a paywall…. he also does not require tithes….
Is that just pure luck — or a sign????
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF calls what is now happening, the “Great Lockdown”. I prefer the “Great Shutdown”: this phrase captures the reality that the global economy would be collapsing even if policymakers were not imposing lockdowns and might stay in collapse after lockdowns end. Yet, whatever we call it, this is clear: it is much the biggest crisis the world has confronted since the second world war and the biggest economic disaster since the Depression of the 1930s. The world has come into this moment with divisions among its great powers and incompetence at the highest levels of government of terrifying proportions. We will pass through this, but into what?
As recently as January, the IMF had no idea of what was about to hit, partly because Chinese officials had failed to inform one another, let alone the rest of the world. Now we are in the middle of a pandemic with vast consequences. But much remains unclear. One important uncertainty is how myopic leaders will respond to this global threat.
For what any forecast is worth, the IMF now suggests that global output per head will contract by 4.2 per cent this year, vastly more than the 1.6 per cent recorded in 2009, during the global financial crisis. Ninety per cent of all countries will experience negative growth in real gross domestic product per head this year, against 62 per cent in 2009, when China’s robust expansion helped cushion the blow.
In January, the IMF forecast smooth growth this year. It now forecasts a plunge of 12 per cent between the last quarter of 2019 and the second quarter of 2020 in advanced economies and a fall of 5 per cent in emerging and developing countries. But, optimistically, the second quarter is forecast to be the nadir. Thereafter, it expects a recovery, though output in advanced economies is forecast to remain below fourth quarter 2019 levels until 2022.
This “baseline” assumes economic reopening in the second half of 2020. If so, the IMF forecasts a 3 per cent global contraction in 2020, followed by a 5.8 per cent expansion in 2021. In advanced economies, the forecast is of a 6.1 per cent contraction this year, followed by a 4.5 per cent expansion in 2021. All this may prove too optimistic.
The IMF offers three sobering alternative scenarios. In the first, lockdowns last 50 per cent longer than in the baseline. In the second, there is a second wave of the virus in 2021. In the third, these elements are combined. Under longer lockdowns this year, global output is 3 per cent lower in 2020 than in the baseline. With a second wave of infections, global output would be 5 per cent below the baseline in 2021. With both misfortunes, global output would be almost 8 per cent below the baseline in 2021. Under the latter possibility, government spending in advanced economies would be 10 percentage points higher relative to GDP in 2021 and government debt 20 percentage points higher in the medium term than in the already unfavourable baseline. We have no real idea which will prove most correct. It might be even worse: the virus might mutate; immunity for people who have had it might not last; and a vaccine might not be forthcoming. A microbe has overthrown all our arrogance.
What must we do to manage this disaster? One answer is not to abandon the lockdowns before the death rate is brought under control. It will be impossible to reopen economies with a raging epidemic, increasing numbers of dead and pushing health systems into collapse. Even if we were allowed to buy or go back to work, many would not do so. But it is essential to prepare for that day, by creating vastly-enhanced capacities to test, trace, quarantine and treat people. No expense must now be spared on this, or on investment in creating, producing and using a new vaccine.
Above all, as the introductory essay to a report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington on the essential role of the Group of 20 leading countries states: “Put simply, in the Covid-19 pandemic, lack of international co-operation will mean that more people will die.” This is true in health policy and in ensuring an effective global economic response. Both the pandemic and the Great Shutdown are global events. Help with the health response is essential, as Maurice Obstfeld, former IMF chief economist, stresses in the report. Yet so too is economic help for poorer countries, via debt relief, grants and cheap loans. A huge new issue of the IMF’s special drawing rights, with transfer of unneeded allocations to poorer countries, is needed.
The negative-sum economic nationalism that has driven Donald Trump throughout his term as US president, and has even emerged within the EU, is a serious danger. We need trade to flow freely, especially (but not solely) in medical equipment and supplies. If the world economy is broken apart, as happened in response to the Depression, the recovery will be blighted, if not slain.
We do not know what the pandemic has in store or how the economy will respond. We do know what we must do to get through this terrifying upheaval with the least possible damage.
We must bring the disease under control. We must invest massively in systems for managing it after current lockdowns end. We must spend whatever is needed to protect both our people and our economic potential from the consequences. We must help the billions of people who live in countries that cannot help themselves unaided. We must remember above all that in a pandemic, no country is an island. We do not know the future. But we do know how we should try to shape it. Will we? That is the question. I greatly fear our answer.
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fdb57ea0c-7e5c-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99a?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=700
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2F245d45d0-7e5d-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99a?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=700
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2F51ff56b8-7e5d-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99a?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=700
That article is actually just another brick in the matrix…
From the article Harry posted yesterday we got the faintest hint of reality. In the first sentence… (the rest of it was as worthless as Wolf’s above)
FT.com “The global economy was facing the worst collapse since the second world war as coronavirus began to strike in March, well before the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index.
Re-read that a few times…. it is a little ambiguous….
Let me rewrite it:
The global economy was headed for a massive collapse even before the coronavirus became a ‘thing’.
There is your truth. We were doomed before the virus hit us.
That is about as close as you are going to get to an indication that the virus is not what is going to take down the economy. That result was baked in an imminent.
And there is no way in hell that the L-Ders or their minions will ever admit that they dropped that virus to control the collapse.
You must have your eyes wide open — and a fairly high IQ to be able decipher that message…
But there is without a doubt a message in that first sentence…. it’s cloaked… but it is THERE.
Tech stocks performed almost 100% recovery to pre-crash bubble heights..
“..massive collapse..” nowhere to be seen.. what your are talking about..?
/sarc off
Recently, the Stock Market has diverged from reality to the greatest extent I have ever seen. As far as reality goes, read this article by Pepe Escobar. His closing statements are the following: “No wonder New York business circles are absolutely terrified. They insist that if the US does not immediately go back to work, and if these possibly quadrillions of dollars of derivatives start to rapidly implode, the economic crises that will unfold will create a collapse of the magnitude of which has not been witnessed in history, with incalculable consequences. Or perhaps this will be just the larger-than-life spark to start a new economy.”
https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/total-system-failure-will-give-rise-to-new-economy/
The world is what it is, namely the ratios of bargaining chips of one region vs. the other are what is the most important metrics. The US got the baton as the host entity for the global system some time ago, this role is usually abused, that’s not novelty, it’s understood throughout the history by the major players in fact. And only when such role can not be fulfilled anymore the baton moves on, we are getting close, but not there yet. Derivatives could be nullified or papered over, that’s not the biggest standing danger as of now. Perhaps ~2025-2033 should be the next window opening..
Let me rewrite it:
The global economy was headed for a massive collapse even before the coronavirus became a ‘thing’.
I like what you’ve done there. You’ve ironed out the kinks in the message to make it clearer for lesser intellects to be able to grasp.
The FT writers have to walk a fine line somewhere between telling the unvarnished truth and varnishing it so much that their paper begins to look like a tabloid. They want to be able to say, “we told it like it was” after the event while avoiding any blame for panicking the readership.
It’s quite a talent to walk that line …. they make it sound as if they are still blaming the virus…. but they are not.
https://i1.wp.com/www.luzdelaluna.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/war-movie-quotes_luzdelaluna_12.png
yes yes yes. The semi ran over a cat. WE MUST ACT. FOR THE FUTURE OF ALL CATS. Radical transformation must be implemented. Trump better get on board… or suffer Johnsons fate. They think they are running the ship? Seriously? Cuomo in 3 2 1. Hero of the virolution!!!!
@FastEddy
Obviously your equipment is so outdated, it does not interpret JavaScript. And what a real html programmer is, they do all with their frameworks. This is how I could read nzz.ch for months, they used to grant a few articles for free and counted it with JavaScript. Note: Never throw an old device!
I am convinced that it is related to Super God-Like Powers…. (please do not intrude on my delusion!!!! – I get enough of that from M Fast…)
I was able to pull up the entire article with a new PC.
So you have… super god like powers too…????
the FT article conclusion:
“We must invest massively in systems for managing it after current lockdowns end. We must spend whatever is needed to protect both our people and our economic potential from the consequences. We must help the billions of people who live in countries that cannot help themselves unaided.”
in other words, we just need infinite cheap energy resources, and then we can help everyone!
“But we do know how we should try to shape it. Will we? That is the question. I greatly fear our answer.”
Will we? The answer is: we can’t…
not many people reach your conclusion Cov, certainly not beyond the confines of OFW
There is a fixed certainty that spending more is the remedy for everything, almost no understanding that energy is the single underpinning factor that makes money what it is,
Thank you, Norman. Any article that says “we must invest massively in systems..” belongs on the floor of the birdcage. It is those very systems that have failed, failed repeatedly, and are failing again. No: we must accept their failure, learn from it, and move on as best we can. What if somebody in the sixth century had said “we must invest massively in the Roman Empire”? Well, somebody did: the Emperor Justinian, who sent his armies, commanded by the great Belisarius, to reconquer the West. The result was a prolonged disaster, accompanied by a massive amount of human misery. Meanwhile, in the shadows, the disciples of St Athanasius, Martin of Tours, Honoratus of Massalia, and many others, were in the quiet of their cloisters building a new civilisation on the ruins of the old.
“The old order changeth, yielding place to new / And God fulfills himself in many ways / Lest one good custom should corrupt the world.”
i agree
no emperor in history has ever been able to accept that the time of his empire is over
The problem is the lack of enough cheap physical resources.
“We must bring the disease under control. We must invest massively in systems for managing it after current lockdowns end. We must spend whatever is needed to protect both our people and our economic potential from the consequences. We must help the billions of people who live in countries that cannot help themselves unaided. We must remember above all that in a pandemic, no country is an island. ”
This is f-ing 9/11 ALL OVER again.
This another War on Terror.
This will go over as well as the War on Drugs.
“At the narrow passage there is no brother and no friend” Gee, if somebody had told me i would be quoting the Koran on OFW …?
A truly liberal site.
… and a badge of honour you can wear with pride. Once again, my heartfelt thanks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIhNKZOHJ74
Wow, really interesting video on the ‘Virus’ in India. Not counting the one’s they already find dead because they only have so many kits for testing. Very few testing kits for what is needed. The longer the lock-downs go on for the harder it will be for the poor. Sounds like a powder keg ready to detonate.
The usual way of coding death is to code the primary cause of death. WHO and others are encouraging countries to count COVID-19 as the cause of death, even if it is not primary. Quite a few Western countries follow this rule, even though it leads to an over-count.
The whole idea that it is possible to stop the illness with testing and lockdowns is nonsense, unless the lockdowns go on endlessly. Even then, it is problematic, because it will tend to migrate in from around the world, over and over.
“The whole idea that it is possible to stop the illness with testing and lockdowns is nonsense, unless the lockdowns go on endlessly.”
The idea in part is to buy time for development of drugs or a vaccine.
Oh come now …. you surely saw that FT article … and you surely must have know that a lot of big indicators were flashing red for quite some time pre virus…
This is just another flu …. like the scientists are saying … it’s not a big deal…
Connect the dots… all roads lead to CDT.. and Lockdowns are part of that plan.
Waiting on other suggestions … that are logical….
It takes years–decades to develop a vaccine for a virus.
Many viruses don’t have vaccines because they mutate far too quickly.
Are you telling your friends and family who are not enthusiastic about lockdowns to be prepared to be under lockdown for years–decades?
The vaccines also are often not very effective. If people don’t develop lasting immunity from the disease itself, we can’t expect the vaccine to have very long lasting impact. Some people may not get any benefit as all, just as some people may not get immunity from the disease.
Ya I read a similar headline about Bali nearly a month ago….. and nothing since.
The only explosions they are experiencing are ones involving hunger – and robberies.
We embark on a similar but far more grand experiment in India.
Did anyone ever think about how difficult it is to actually lockdown 1.3 billion people? So why even bother to try?
Unless of course the goal is to collapse India’s economy. It’s quite easy to lock it down enough to achieve that.
There are reports that Hindu and Sikh mobs have been scapegoating / beating up Muslims as carriers of the virus. Recall that a big chunk of it was spread by members of a Muslim missionary society which deliberately flouted orders not to meet in large groups.
I can see why India is going full steam ahead and extending their lockdown….. that place could get a little … hairy….. if you just let it implode under its own weight…..
Perhaps when the Davos presentation was made … India was the demo country….
In fact I have the schedule here:
Everyone Assembles for the 11am Briefing involving a film presentation
We’ll skip to 1:14:20
https://youtu.be/jGiTaQ60Je0
Break for the caviar and champagne luncheon at 1.
Following luncheon .. Men go to the Epstein Lap Dance Room – women get their nails done…
Reconvene at 4pm…. for the key note address:
Remembering partition: ‘It was like a slaughterhouse’
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/08/remembering-partition-slaughter-house-170810050649347.html
Followed by a prayer to the El d ers at 530… and the sacrifice of some street urchins….
Vote on total chaos or controlled demolition at 7. Vote to be ratified or overturned by the el ders as need be during a special council at 730.
Dinner in the Z i on Lounge at 8:00 where the final decision will be announced. Cake and coffee to be served afterwards. Men retire to the Epstein Lap Dance Room — Women to return to their suites.
A) https://cdn.siasat.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Mohammed-Zubair-Reuters-Delhi-Riots.jpg
OR
B) https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/D4FB/production/_89832545_89832544.jpg
Check out the reporter wrinkling her forehead because she cant use the rest of her face covered with a mask to scare people.
FYI
The kids call it The Rona.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVajyq3UUAAXPkz?format=jpg&name=large
Okay, I can answer part of a question in my last post, “Where is the Beef?”
https://www.agriculture.com/news/livestock/jbs-tells-6000-beef-workers-to-self-quarantine?did=512264-20200414&utm_campaign=todays-news_newsletter&utm_source=agriculture.com&utm_medium=email&utm_content=041420&cid=512264&mid=32290662270
Beef is still on the hoof, waiting around. Well, if we are to become hunter gathers I suppose there would be worse places to start hunting, surly they can’t run too far.
AmerIndians started fires and ran the bison off a cliff, nasty animal, easier to collect when they are crippled or dead. Wise choice.
Dennis L.
According to an article dated today April 14, a big beef producer is having COVID-19 problems among its employees.
The virus seems to spread through big groups easily. A two week quarantine is enough to slow the outbreak, but probably won’t stop it completely.
This is on ZeroHedge, they are consistent.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-state-department-cables-warned-potential-sars-pandemic-after-visiting-wuhan-lab
Things get spun, it appears the US was trying to fund increased safety procedures, there was concern as reported in cables sent by US representatives to the State Dept. Some sites made it appear we were subsidizing the research, we seem to have been trying to keep the damn bug in the lab and not let the metaphorical genie out of the bottle. Score one for the US, doesn’t help much, does it?
There is so much information it must be very difficult to separate what is fact and how to prioritize it.
Why this research was done and all the misery it is causing is a serious question. It seems both literally and metaphorically father has left the room and there is no one to say “NO.” It is very difficult to develop the judgment to use the “NO” word, we all want to be liked and it is easier to be liked when agreeable.
The world is seemingly facing a number of issues, serious issues:
1.The virus
2. A large fire in the Ukraine near the Chernobyl plant, reportedly under control, ah we have heard that one before.
3.Locusts eating E. Africa out of house and home, again.
4. Economic turmoil obfuscated behind obscure, complex and one would guess circular derivative agreements which means there is really nothing but a paper trail, as the Wendy grandma once said, “Where is the beef? Well, it was used for a cookout in the Hamptons, sorry about that.
C. Cuomo seems to have had an epiphany, basically saying much of what he parrots on the news is BS, neither side has much interest in reality. It would be interesting if more network flaks came out and basically said, “I am mad as hell and am not going to take it anymore.” At least that is how I recall the movie, “Network.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cnns-cuomo-melts-down-admits-his-job-trafficking-ridiculous
“Things get spun, it appears the US was trying to fund increased safety procedures, there was concern as reported in cables sent by US representatives to the State Dept. Some sites made it appear we were subsidizing the research, we seem to have been trying to keep the damn bug in the lab and not let the metaphorical genie out of the bottle. Score one for the US, doesn’t help much, does it?”
Good information to know, Dennis.
Thanks for the information. Cuomo is in the “hot seat.” He wants to be in charge, but others want to be in charge too. Lots of arguing. I used google to find “Cuomo threatens” and I found a whole list of things that he has threatened in the last few days.
In a crisis, everyone wants to be in charge. But with the escaped virus, clearly no one was in charge. No one can fix the situation now; it is a big mess. The idea of epidemiologists for fixing the virus problem simply isn’t working.
NY Fed weekly economic indicator
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVgSUvZWsAA8v1M?format=jpg&name=large
Xi calls it the devil (Pazuzu).
Wow.
Going straight down without even jumping off the cliff.
Hey JEROME……start up the printers dude!!!! Brrrrrrrr
I suspect that even if we ended the lockdown today — we would still collapse.
The FT article that Harry posted indicated we were headed for the wall pre virus —- which had been suggested here previously.
Stopping the lockdowns does magically move that wall out of the way.
In fact it makes is worse because debt loads are far heavier —- think of what this has done to the consumer —- he’s taken on debt to survive this — he has to service that debt — so he’s not going to rush out and buy a car… furniture … a new phone….
It is not possible to go back to where we were in January… or February…. and no point since the end was about to strike…
Hence the inescapable conclusion that this ‘virus’ is being used to carry out the CDT.
We are in the midst of the End of Days. We are observing the end of history.
Perhaps we should think of this as our Last Gasp…. we were about to sink under the water …. the LEDRS saw that — and decided to introduce the virus :
1. As an excuse to throw the kitchen sink at the energy problem – what they are doing dwarfs the GFC response…. they are heaving the sink … the dirty dishes… the toilet bowl… the cupboards … you name it their tossing it now
2. To carry out a controlled demolition rather than stand back and allow total chaos.
Most people are unable to recognize the obvious — they are bewildered by the situation — a few can sort of sense something is wrong with the picture… but then they ask ‘but why would anyone want to demolish civilization’
That’s what brings them back into the fold — they fall back on the official narrative….
If one were to put forward the explanation above (which is the only one I am aware of that makes any sense)…. that would cause the door to be slammed shut in your face.
For obvious reasons.
My only quibble or objection is how deluded the e*ders coul be to believe they could avoid the spent fuel pond fumes? And of course they know that the nuclear beast must be kept in control somehow. And how would they manage it in a collapsing world, with millions of marauding zombies around?
They would understand the radiation issues.
Starvation is intended for the masses … it’s actually a favour…
I suspect some of the el d ers would retire to underground bunkers… not difficult to create a bunker that is impervious to radiation …. but then that would be like a prison … I’ve been out of my ‘prison’ once in 3 weeks now…. and I’m not liking this situation much…. and I am still able to get outside … ride my bike … get some fresh air…. I doubt anyone would be very keen living in a hole forever… even a luxury hole….
That said….
If I had a stable of extremely hot and nubile vixens (I remember when I went to Vietnam in the 90’s and read at one of the museums how the emperor had 6000!!! concubines… I was trying to work out the math — was he able to test drive ALL of them? Did he involve multiples… did he ever revisit any of them ….. I got quite lost in the numbers as there are so many different combos…) …… maybe it wouldn’t be so bad living in a (luxury) hole in the ground….
\If you like maurauding zombies, watch “High School of the Dead” But the experts knew all along that the nuclear beast could not be controlled; that is why GE funded a study from a prestigious university to make the claim that it could. They also made the university President a member of their board of directors. The human world may die from that decision, if it doesn’t die first from glyphosate poisoning.
Nuclear energy wins easily the prize of Worst Move Humankind Ever Made. I suppose the second place goes to Haber-Bosch process?
For JMS: I would add to your list genetically modified organisms, especially ones we are supposed to eat. A clear violation of the precautionary principle. Of course, Jared Diamond considered agriculture, per se, as our biggest mistake. I think he’s wrong: the ants have practiced both agriculture and animal husbandry, and done so sustainably, for over 50 million years. So did we, in the early days, until greed and hubris (and empires) took over.
This is not for the faint of heart…
He not only bites off the head – he eats it…..
https://www.express.co.uk/videos/6125994615001/China-Shocking-moment-man-bites-head-off-dead-rat
That is quite the chart.
I put together an expected energy production chart, back a few years ago. In retrospect, I should have had the turning point be 2020 instead of 2015. But the idea is precisely correct. Production goes a lot closer to straight down than people would expect.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/tverberg-estimate-of-future-energy-production.png
Thank you; I remember first reading that article. You were savaged by people claiming wind and solar could solve all our problems, if only more money, … All overlooking the simple fact that energy is supposed to produce wealth, not consume it. Of course, the “shale oil” scam is based on the same delusion. And now here we are: incrementa lente exeunt, festinatur in damnum.
Excellent Robert! I agree
https://democriticreviews.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/bravo.gif
tinfoil hat goes maintream.
https://getlambs.com/products/emf-proof-beanie
Monoculture….Humans have the Virus and Olive trees in orchards have the
Deadly olive tree disease across Europe ‘could cost billions’
By Matt McGrath – Environment correspondent
BBCApril 13, 2020, 6:41 PM EDT
Researchers say the economic costs of a deadly pathogen affecting olive trees in Europe could run to over €20 billion.
They’ve modelled the future worst impacts of the Xylella fastidiosa pathogen which has killed swathes of trees in Italy
Spread by insects, the bacterium now poses a potential threat to olive plantations in Spain and Greece.
The disease could increase the costs of olive oil for consumers
Xylella is considered to be one of the most dangerous pathogens for plants anywhere in the world. At present there is no cure for the infection.
It can infect cherry, almond and plum trees as well as olives.
It has become closely associated with olives after a strain was discovered in trees in Puglia in Italy in 2013.
The organism is transmitted by sap-sucking insects such as spittlebugs.
The infection limits the tree’s ability to move water and nutrients and over time it withers and dies
The micro invisible universe is attacking!
Only those have who been lucky enough to see a well-pruned olive tree which is centuries old will fully appreciate the tragedy of this: but all those who have taste buds will mourn. Olive oil is a gift of the gods.
I have to confess, my greatest fear is having to eat only British food at the End of the World -.potatoes and cabbage, my God!
The ale and cider are OK though. I’d go out merry enough .:)
Agreed! Without olive oil is just impossible to cook. Well, some say that boiling things is to cook, but I beg to differ.
(Btw, let me check my supplies …. ok, enough of it for 10 months, not bad.)
In legend, the first olive tree was planted on the Acropolis by the Goddess Athena, and the grateful people named their new city after her. For several years, I would buy my olive oil from the owner of a grove on the Isle of Corfu, who pressed the grapes himself. The oil was green and a little cloudy; unfiltered in the ancient tradition. Today I cook Western food only in olive oil, and Eastern food usually in sesame oil. As always, Nature knows best, and Tradition respects Nature. Perhaps there is a way back in that old wisdom, had we but the sense and courage to heed it.
This is a terrible. Olive oil is widely recommended in the US, but it is nearly always imported, often from Italy, Spain or Greece. All of these countries need exports, and we need olive oil from these countries. I bought a bigger container than usual, when I found it on the shelf of a grocery store, fearing it would not be available for long.
Lots of olive oil is not olive oil… (see Mafia – Olive Oil).
We buy from local growers who we know and hope we can trust… there are many of them in NZ….
It’s a shame and a bit of a mistery how a country like US has no extensive olive trees plantation. The tree doesn’t mind hot weather and chily winters (mediterranean chilly of course, with low temperatures about -3 or -4 C. maximum) and also doesn’t require rich soils. It’s really a wonderful tree. Arguably the most importante in human history.
Most of the “California olive oil” I find in stores is “blended in California from imported olive oil.”
I suspect we couldn’t compete with costs.
Most of the United States gets below -3 or -4 C in winter. The major exception is places along the West Coast and Florida, which is basically a sand bar (so perhaps not suitable). I tried to plant a supposedly cold-tolerant olive tree in my yard a few years ago and it quickly died from cold weather.
Proving once again that the only truly inhabitable parts of the world are those where you can grow both the olive and the vine. Thank you, Athena; thank you, Dionysos.
Lockdown the olive trees!!! Let’s make huge plastic bags and shroud the bast ards in them!!!!
Lockerdown lockerdown!!!
I don’t understand how you insist on talking about this subject after that disastrous article “It Is Easy to Overreact to the Chinese Coronavirus”. That article discredits you to keep talking about the subject.
And u decide who gets to “talk”? All hail supreme leader kesheR. Both articles SPOT ON. Please explain your adjective “disastrous”?
Is your comment intended as merely a drive-by personal attack or do you wish to expand on your criticism?
The world certainly did over react as can be seen by Sweden. Now the politician are stuck. What do I do now? How do I back out of this without loosing office.
Well, I really can tell you that they(government) underreacted disaustrously here in Spain.
I admire Gail and love her work, though
Notice how the MSM rounds on any country that DARES to not lockdown…. or on any scientist who DARES to suggest lockdowns are a bad idea.
I am sure the Swedish govt is aware of CDT…. maybe believe that their citizens will not run rabid when collapse hits so no need to force them to hide under their beds and starve…
The Swedes don’t need to be locked down. By all accounts they practice winter self isolation as a national custom and are quite content to remain in their igloos until springtime arrives sometime in July.
The point of that article was that the economic effects of closing everything down are as dangerous as the virus itself.
Too bad they dont have moon hoaxes now… They could say covid 19 was brought back from purple fungus that the astronauts were exposed to on the moon.
“The International Monetary Fund has slashed its forecasts for global growth in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and warned of a slump in output this year unparalleled since the Great Depression of the 1930s…
“The IMF said the sudden shock caused by the spread of the coronavirus meant it had been forced to tear up an estimate it made just three months ago of 3.3% global growth this year and replace it with an expected contraction of 3%.
“Until now the downturn that followed the near meltdown of the global financial system in late 2008 has been the most serious of the postwar ear, with global activity shrinking by 0.1% in 2009.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/14/great-lockdown-coronavirus-to-rival-great-depression-with-3-hit-to-global-economy-says-imf
And yet a 3% contraction, even allowing for the fact that anything below approx 2.5% growth is recessionary for the global economy as a totality, seems to absurdly underestimate the situation. Their worst case scenario forecast of 11% is nearer the mark, surely, and even that may be underplaying it.
“The International Monetary Fund on Monday announced immediate debt relief for 25 poor countries to help them free up funds to fight the coronavirus pandemic…
“The IMF board approved the debt relief for the countries, nearly all in Africa, but also Afghanistan, Yemen, Nepal and Haiti.”
https://www.france24.com/en/20200413-imf-approves-debt-relief-for-25-poor-countries
“The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic poses unprecedented health, economic, and financial stability challenges…
“A further tightening of financial conditions may expose more “cracks” in global financial markets and test the resilience of financial institutions.
“Asset managers may face further outflows and may be forced to sell assets into falling markets.
“Distress may rise among leveraged firms and households.
“Emerging and frontier markets may face challenging external funding conditions, rising rollover risks, and increased incidence of debt restructurings…
“Wide-ranging fiscal, monetary, and financial policies, as well as strong international cooperation, remain essential to safeguard economic and financial stability and to prevent the emergence of adverse macro-financial feedback loops.”
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2020/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2020
I can guess how well these countries will be able to pay back the debt.
I am 100% confident that money will reach the poor rather than line the pockets of men with large sunglasses
https://motherboard-images.vice.com/content-images/contentimage/no-slug/3edae992f6e07438095db05b30d99970.jpg
The IMF doesn’t dare say how bad the situation really is.
“Russia’s deepening economic crisis is on the verge of spilling into some of the most remittance-dependent economies in the world.
“Migrant workers from the former-Soviet Union send $13 billion home each year from Russia, where they are allowed to work visa-free.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/russia-s-coming-crisis-puts-13-billion-of-remittances-at-risk
“Amid relief in Moscow at the unprecedented deal with Saudi Arabia and other major producers to slash oil output, the accord marks a painful setback for Russia, said two people close to the Kremlin…
“If the cuts are achieved, Russia’s output for the next two months will drop to the annual average last seen in 2003.”
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/4/13/russia-paid-a-heavy-price-to-end-the-oil-price-war
“For Russians whose purchasing power has already been hit over recent years, the economic situation looks set to become even more precarious.
“The outlook is especially bleak for the nearly two-thirds of Russians who — according to a survey last year by the Levada polling agency — have no savings.”
https://www.france24.com/en/20200414-russia-s-small-businesses-buckling-under-virus-restrictions
Terrible for russian. I cant immagine ukraine and belarus
saudis can stay warm by burning camel dung
the russkis can’t.
that is their bottom line in fundamental terms
Putin’s economic system is predicated on infinite flows of oil and gas. If he has no customers for it, then it will stay in the ground.
if it’s at a low price, the amount used will only ever be what the economic system can absorb, which in turn is governed by economic activity. This is what has kept the Russians warm in winter until now
but that price will be too low to cover Putin’s aspirations and committmentsPutin is walking the energy tightrope. Nobody dare mention it’s only anchored at one end.
but ramping up the price will depress economic activity even further, so even less oil will be needed to drive the system, so the higher price plateau will give way to economic reality again as producers find their populations in open revolt against depressed living standards.
This applies to all producing nations.
Trumpy’s promises of ‘forever more’ fall into the same trap: Push the price up and you sell less, bring it back down and it’s uneconomic to produce. So the Frackers must run out of customers before they run out of oil. Folks sometimes ask me for an answer. There isn’t one.
All the oil-world leaders chant the same mantra: oil keeps us rich. Venezeula is the first oil producer to prove the lie of that.
Keeping warm may be less of a problem for them in future.
“This winter in Russia was the hottest ever in the 140-year history of meteorological observations, beating the previous temperature record from the winter of 2015-2016 by 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit), state-run Hydrometeorological Center of Russia reported Thursday.
“Moscow was even warmer, compared to normal, reporting a staggering 7.5 degrees Celsius (13.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above average…”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/04/europe/russia-warm-temperatures-moscow-climate-intl/index.html
Russians have gardens and the actually eat that food ans sustain themselves with it. Do you?
And import very little.
Russia exported $341B and imported $221B, resulting in a positive trade balance of $120B
The oil price decline has hurt, but not that much.
Good points!
It looks like Tajikistan is worst off.
“As the poorest of the Former-Soviet republics, Tajikistan is likely to be hardest hit. Yields on the country’s only dollar bond surged above 17% last month as investors grow increasingly concerned about its ability to pay them back.”
World auto sales
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVjC-tMX0AEtQjz?format=png&name=medium
World auto sales seem to have dropped by a bit more than half.
I see almost half, but that’s quite a big drop too.
At this point every expert is guessing that the recovery will be either V shaped, U shaped or Nike shaped. No one talked about a L shaped recovery.
The sort of rebound you get when bungee jumping without a bungee? A splat-shaped recovery.
Watching this”next-generation” loony tunes compilation made my stomach churn!!
I can’t find more up to date info but I recall seeing something about their numbers recently dropping to GFC levels…
Those numbers are very good indicators of the health of the global economy — so obviously something VERY WICKED was imminent … because the CBs were pouring on the stimulus yet they continued to drop.
Keep in mind we recently started to see negative interest rates… that was not working out so well and they banks were quickly pulling back that curtain….
Me thinks… the CBs were out of bullets…. Me thinks they had a high powered meeting — made the decision to drop a virus on the world (CDP) — Me thinks they they gathered world leaders in Davos — Me thinks they informed them of the CDP — and Me thinks we are watching the plan unfold.
NOTE – CDT is now the CDP (Controlled Demolition Plan)
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2019.01.08german.jpg
The CBs did not leak any of this — (and they will not like this post)— but it’s difficult to keep a secret from a 700IQ.
But they will not Cruise Missile the Goat Ranch… because they know that nobody will believe the above … they know that Fast is not a threat to their plan… he’s a….
‘C ___________ T ___________’
What kinda person would suggest that the central banks would create a virus — and use it to destroy the world???? A crazy man. A delusional man.
Nah… the CBs (NSA) will be picking up this chatter and the boys will be saying … damn that Fast Eddy…. he nailed us on the mo—on thing… 911…. and now this….
OH and did you guys see what he did to GEeeeta earlier….. now that’s a masterpiece!
https://i0.wp.com/mbworld.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Ali-G-Respect.jpg
Consp ir acy the ory – Solar Energy.
Discuss….
The interest in solar energy is not a conspiracy theory. It operates in the way that self-organizing systems always work.
-Everyone can see that we will eventually have an energy problem. We need some kind of solution. Solar energy, because it is so abundant, looks like a solution.
-Solar energy is not really a solution, because the electricity we need has to be matched to the time of day and time of year it is needed. Also, most energy use is not electricity; there is no way we can convert direct uses of natural gas, coal, and natural gas to use electricity. Researchers are not systems thinkers. They can imagine specific high cost solutions in particular situations, but they don’t understand that the system in total can never work.
-Researchers need something to work on that looks like it might work. Politicians need a theoretical solution, even if it won’t really work. The population needs more jobs. Adding a new industry adds the possibility of more jobs.
-The tax system could be used to subsidize solar, so people didn’t realize how expensive it really is. Also, electricity companies often give absurdly high reduction in rates, relative to the value of the electricity to the system.
-The dream of electric cars goes with solar. Perhaps a few special people can have government subsidized electric cars, to use with the government subsidized solar panels, and save themselves. The poor will subsidize the rich!
-Economists have been giving politicians a false idea of how the economy really works for a long time. They cannot foresee what a disasters solar energy is for the overall system. They only see the new jobs. They assume that the price of fossil fuels will rise endlessly and that somehow intermittent electricity will become economic. Economists need to have a story that “sells” to the public and politicians. They cannot allow economics papers based on self-organizing systems and dissipative structures. Instead, the peer review system allows staying with the old, tried and true, thinking.
Gail,
Solar just might work in some cases, I am playing with numbers and they are surprisingly good, almost too good which makes me skeptical. You are macro, most things are micro, solar does not have to be used the same as electricity has always been used, there may be exceptions.
Dennis L.
You have to have batteries and an inverter to make a system that works. The cost of that is a whole lot more than the cost of the uninstalled solar cells.
The output of the solar system damages the electricity system as a whole, partly because of the damage the pricing system does to the economics electrical utilities.
If people would buy unsubsidized solar panels and use them off grid (together with whatever other apparatus is needed), I would have no problem with them. Otherwise, they are basically a way for the poor to subsidize the already rich.
“You have to have batteries and an inverter to make a system that works. The cost of that is a whole lot more than the cost of the uninstalled solar cells.
The output of the solar system damages the electricity system as a whole, partly because of the damage the pricing system does to the economics electrical utilities.
If people would buy unsubsidized solar panels and use them off grid (together with whatever other apparatus is needed), I would have no problem with them. Otherwise, they are basically a way for the poor to subsidize the already rich.”
Problem is – that there is so much misinformation around – and it’s hard for folks – especially non-tecchies – to get a clear picture. I guess, is first get an idea of what your REAL electrical power needs are. Not easy. We can reduce power demands by using items like LED lights to reduce some continuous loads. Running as much as possible from your battery system, can be more efficient.
However – while Li batteries are sexy – good old lead acid is just as reliable – and as you are not lugging them around – weight is irrelevant. Go to http://www.livingindaintree.org.au/. and click on power systems. That will give your the essential poop written by people who are totally reliant on solar renewable.
Just don’t expect solar panels to be at all useful for heating. They tend to be close to total busts in the cold part of the year. Of course, they also do not produce at night, which is another time temperatures tend to be cooler. Expect to need to burn biomass for heating.
Sure, solar photo-electric systems can’t supply heating – but can support limited cooking with well insulated pots. Evacuated tube solar hot-water works even in sub zero weather (clear sun). PV actually works better at low air temperatures. Again its a matter of establishing your real needs – and ignoring Jevon’s Paradox! Don’t forget to wear warm clothes!
Could there be a con-spi-ra-cy to persuade the world that solar energy can solve our problems by people who who know full well that it won’t?
Thanks for that Tim… we are aligned in out thoughts…..
Gail says, “… a few special people can have government subsidized electric cars, to use with the government subsidized solar panels, and save themselves.”
So, now i’m special! Thanks Gail!
I’m just now upgrading my micro-grid.
Gail, I have been interested in “solar power” for over 60 years, ever since I saw it in use in Africa. Method: buy (or otherwise acquire) some aluminium foil, make four reflecting panels, arranged around a metal cooking pot, point at the Sun, and cook away.
Of course, this won’t scale, and the only truly scalable technology I could find was ocean thermal power. Interestingly, I found one reference that claimed it could be free, and the numbers did seem to add up. The major byproduct of an OTP installation is fish, who thrive on the nutrients the system brings up from the depths to the surface. The claim was that by selling the fish you could fund the running costs of the plant. Maybe, maybe not: but surely worth a try. And since the temperature difference that drives the system is pretty much the same day or night, thanks to the immense thermal inertia of the ocean, the power is pretty much continuous, in the tropics at least.
Regarding the cooking pot with the four reflective panels, I have had two thoughts:
(1) It is cloudy or rainy pretty often. You likely wouldn’t get much cooking done.
(2) If you set the cooking pot with reflective panels outside to cook in whatever area happens to be sunny near your home, someone is likely to walk off with the pot, the food in it, and the reflective panels. This would especially be the case if people are poor and in need of these things.
I think you need to look at. https://www.solarcookers.org/, and there are loads of DIY ideas for solar cookers (look for solar cookers/cooking)- and they work really well in dry regions (where there is little tree coverage (it’s all been burnt for fuel!). They can be expensive or made out of cardboard and Al foil. I wouldn’t be getting my knickers in a knot about them being stolen.. not yet anyway.
I actually have one in my basement. I have been involved with this issue a long time.
From Wolf Street:
“Since humans started using oil, we have never seen anything like this,” Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura Group Pte. Ltd., told the Wall Street Journal. “There is no guide we are following. This is uncharted.” He estimates demand has plunged from 100 million barrels per day (mb/d) to just 65-70 mb/d currently.
That’s what the aftermath of peak oil looks like…. but we are not finished… the deflationary global snowball is just getting underway…. with no way to halt it.
Thank you, Gail. Two replies. (1) This was tropical Africa: no clouds and no rain for 8 months of the year, and in the other four you can still cook; it just takes longer. (2) These were tribal people unimproved by Western civilisation; theft was virtually unknown among them. But as an added precaution, you could do what my parents did in their bungalow: get a Shaman to provide a juju effigy, and hang it up in a prominent place.
“Yesterday I went to my favorite speakeasy and had dinner,” Dr. Knut M. Wittkowski told the outlet, adding that his party included eight others. He also added that he was not practicing social distancing. “This is a flu and this will end like every other flu did before for the last thousand years,” he said. (VICE has reached out to Dr. Wittkowski for additional comment.)
And the mayor is pretty sure that you should already be aware of all of that by now. “You’ve been warned and warned and warned again,” de Blasio said on Sunday.
Yes, a reminder—you’ve been warned and warned and warned again.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/wxea9m/nypd-busts-illegal-speakeasy-during-quarantine-but-there-may-be-others
They had not paid the bribe to the right people.
And here we go again… what was I saying about what happens if you say the wrong thing… and you get traction?
Far-right extremists have promoted one absurd con—spiracy theory after another.
And during the COVID-19 pandemic, so-called “coronavirus truthers” and “hospital truthers” have continued to insist that the pandemic is one big ho–ax perpetrated by liberals, progressives, the mainstream media and “the Deep State.”
Conservative Never Trump journalist Jonathan V. Last cites Knut Wittkowski as someone who coronavirus truthers have adopted as an authority — and he lays out, in an article published in The Bulwark this week, why Wittkowski’s assertions are problematic.
https://www.alternet.org/2020/04/conservative-writer-debunks-the-absurd-fallacies-promoted-by-a-coronavirus-truther/
Let’s revisit what he actually said:
You cannot stop the spread of a respiratory disease within a family, and you cannot stop it from spreading with neighbors, with people who are delivering, who are physicians—anybody. People are social, and even in times of social distancing, they have contacts, and any of those contacts could spread the disease. It will go slowly, and so it will not build up herd immunity, but it will happen. And it will go on forever unless we let it go.
https://www.thecollegefix.com/epidemiologist-coronavirus-could-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/
Even his former employer is having a go at him:
The opinions that have been expressed by Knut Wittkowski, discouraging social distancing in order to hasten the development of herd immunity to the novel coronavirus, do not represent the views of The Rockefeller University, its leadership, or its faculty.
Wittkowski was previously employed by Rockefeller as a biostatistician. He has never held the title of professor at Rockefeller.
https://www.rockefeller.edu/news/27872-rockefeller-university-releases-statement-concerning-dr-knut-wittkowski/
What’s next? He diddles little boys?
OH an he never claimed to be a professor :
Knut Wittkowski, previously the longtime head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at the Rockefeller University in New York City…
Seeing these two takedowns and I know 100% now that there is a massive operation underway here — and nobody will be allowed to get in the way….
This is WMD on steroids.
I thought Wittowski was spouting nonsense too
Eddy if this trend towards agreement continues, I will lose all purpose in life. Please desist.
You need the clock analogy.
Our crazy and deluded friends are occasionally right.
Just watch the show and smile.
Surely it was obvious that FE sees Wittowski as the voice of reason? Or do I have to treat people here like a Grade 3 class?
His views line up with Burry’s — which I have posted more than once https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm
Lockdowns are futile and will collapse the global economy — therefore the goal is to collapse the global economy
Norman, I think you’ve misinterpreted Eddy’s stance here. He doesn’t think Wittowski was spouting nonsense. Your sense of purpose is safe for the moment.
https://youtu.be/qkH6q2-fGuk
wat a relief
please cancel my FE subscription cancellation
Norman, your country bombed Syria based on a lie that thousands of people know about. To the credit of your country there are a least a few from there trying to expose it. My own can’t produce one honest mainstream reporter or government representative,
Widespread lying and cover-up is easy. It is happening right before our eyes.
It (obviously) is futile to try to explain this…. 99.9999% of all people…. go through their entire lives living in ‘the matrix’….
You can pull back the curtain and show them the buttons and gears… but they will not see… they will refuse to see…
Most people cannot handle it… it would turn their entire world upside down … destroy their ‘sanity’ (which is actually based on believing soothing lies)…. and at the very least, probably cause them to be profoundly disappointed and unhappy.
This is a profound statement:
https://youtu.be/_4dFDBYWuTc
Norm – at least you are consistent in terms of your inability to grasp relatively simple concepts.
Auckland University’s Senior Lecturer of Epidemiology Simon Thornley is part of the group that developed plan b.
Thornley said the evidence thus far showed eradication of the virus in New Zealand, the Government’s stated aim, was not necessary.
“Lockdown was appropriate when there was so little data…but the data is now clear, this is not the disaster we feared and prepared for. Elimination of this virus is likely not achievable and is not necessary.”
Thornley said the risk to most working people was low and likened it, for most people, to a seasonal influenza virus.
He said the plan was developed amid concern the Government’s strategy was over-the-top and likely to “substantially harm the nation’s long term health and well being, social fabric, economy and education”.
Other members of the group include Grant Schofield, professor of public health, AUT, Gerhard Sundborn, senior lecturer of population and pacific health, Auckland University, Grant Morris, associate professor of law, Victoria University, Ananish Chaudhuri, professor of experimental economics, Auckland University, Michael Jackson, postdoctoral researcher in biostatistics and biodiscovery, Victoria University.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Monday more details would be revealed about level 3 on Thursday but it would still have significant restrictions. She compared the level to a waiting room where there would be fewer restrictions but not so many the gains of level 4 were lost.
Under level four all but essential workers are confined to their homes with only a few exceptions for essential travel.
The Government will announce on April 20 whether the country will exit or extend its four week level four lockdown.
In response to the the group’s proposed plan, a Government spokesman said “the Prime Minister has been clear the best way to protect New Zealanders’ health and economy is to stamp out the virus.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120984583/coronavirus-lockdown-rules-should-be-relaxed-health-experts-say
In response to the the group’s proposed plan, a Government spokesman said “the Prime Minister has been clear the best way to protect New Zealanders’ health and economy is to stamp out the virus.
$12 billion down the tube already in NZ… keep it up Jacinda!!! Bankruptcy? What’s that — asked the woman who is NOT even qualified to teach grade 3.
Check it out — she has NEVER had a fkkking real job in her entire life…. she’s been sucking on the public titty her entire life…. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacinda_Ardern
Guess what … Jacinda …. you will NEVER eliminate the flu…. you see those daily numbers? They are NOT real…. oh really? Yes really …. shall i explain to you as if you were a grade 3 teacher… you know … someone who’s world revolves around teaching fractions and reading skills to sub-humans? tee hee tee heee…
Here’s the thing … there are way more cases in NZ that are not reported because most flu cases are very mild …. people with a sniffle to not go to the Covid clinic…. but they are spreaders…. yes they are Jacinda! oh wow !!!
So how are you going to stamp out those carriers??????
Oh I don’t like this real world so much… I think I will just do as I always do when I am confused… and put on my pouty face and look concerned…. then I’ll skype my doppelganger, Justin … we’ll cry a little, talk about transgender policies, and how we can make PEOPLEkind better …
We’ll sing Kumbaya… then Imagine …. plant a tree or two ….then we’ll both take a nap….
Meanwhile all that tax money I’ve been funnelling into the bottomless pit…. is being wasted.
UN-fkking.reel…..
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2019/01/it-will-be-tough-for-us-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-gives-coy-kiwibuild-update/_jcr_content/par/video/image.dynimg.1280.q75.jpg/v1548732244244/Jacinda-Ardern-post-cab-290119-1120.jpg
F**k me! You have a female Trudeau. You go to the other side of the world and end up with that dingus. Leaders like these are completely compromised at the best of times.
I’ll bet Norman has no clue about the Five Eyes alliance either. To protect us of course…
Simon Thornley does sound reasonable.
A major reason for erecting all of these barriers to entry seems to be to keep jobs at home for current residents. But if the jobs are already gone, there is not even sense in that.
The MAIN reason is so that the ice rinks can open …
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/rIVIftFaHiA/hqdefault.jpg
Wittkowski does not come across as being very knowledgeable. Stay away from relying on what he says. Find other sources.
Michael Burry, the doctor-turned-investor who famously bet against mortgage securities before the 2008 financial crisis, has taken to Twitter with a controversial message: lockdowns intended to contain the coronavirus pandemic are worse than the disease itself.
“Universal stay-at-home is the most devastating economic force in modern history,” Burry wrote in an email to Bloomberg News.
“And it is man-made. It very suddenly reverses the gains of underprivileged groups, kills and creates drug addicts, beats and terrorizes women and children in violent now-jobless households, and more. It bleeds deep anguish and suicide.”
If COVID-19 testing were universal, the fatality rate would be less than 0.2%. This is no justication for sweeping government policies, lacking any and all nuance, that destroy the lives, jobs, and businesses of the other 99.8%.
— michaeljburry (@michaeljburry) March 23, 2020
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm
I think that Burry would need to say, “If COVID-19 testing were universal and repeated twice a week, the fatality rate would be 0.2%” or something like that. There are multiple problems with the tests. They give a lot of false negatives. Conditions change very quickly, especially if a very contagious virus is circulating, and it can only be identified over part of its lifetime.
The cost of all of the tests soon becomes outrageous, I am afraid.
Jacinda – NZD12 billion so far… with lockdown extended another week (wanna bet that will get extended…) so let’s add NZ3 billion to the bill … soon we’ll be talking real numbers….
How many trillion globally….
I actually disagree with Burry on the testing …. waste of time …. US had 45M with flu in 2017/18…. that’s the people who would have reported to a doctor… millions more would have had the flu -but too mild to bother with a doctor…
So assume with a flu that huge numbers are going to get it — what’s the point of testing? Oh — so if you test more people will mild symptoms the death rate goes down?
Who cares about the death rate — most people who die are diseased obese and weak…. these are the people you see in the supermarket with carts crammed with soft drinks, Red Bull, crisps, frozen pizza etc…. who eat fast food on a daily basis…. the people with absolutely no self-discipline…. the people who end up with high BP, diabetes, heart disease and other ailments that are a product of a life of sloth and gluttony…
The flu wipes lots of these people out every year…. what else is new….
Without a doubt if anyone was serious about mitigating the impact of this version of the flu…. (i.e. if it was as bad as we are being told — and not just another flu)….
They WOULD force everyone to cover their face when they go out of their homes…. no need for surgical masks (are they cutting anyone open? NOPE)…. a simple balaclava .. a scarf … or even a Halloween mask will do…
That would 1. greatly reduce the spew from coughing and sneezing and 2. It deters people from touching their mouth and nose with their germ-laden fingers.
This is a NO BRAINER.
But nope — this is just another flu — there is no desire to mitigate the situation — because the entire point is to use this flu as the means to deploy the CDT.
Like I have said — imagine what they could have done with the 45M flu infections in the US In 2017/18…. there were actual tent hospitals with sick people in them…
No need to f ake it.
This is the same glib researcher. Colds haven’t been exterminated. Regular flu hasn’t been exterminated. We can sort of temporarily build up heard immunity, but the immunity is likely not long lasting. Also, there will be some turnover, as older people die and babies are born. COVID-19 can be expected to come back again and again, no matter what we do.
“COVID-19 can be expected to come back again and again, no matter what we do.”
Until Bill and Melinda Gates get their wish and the entire planet is “vaccinated by force”.
Not even then. Vaccination can’t work better than having the disease, and the disease doesn’t seem to leave long-lasting immunity. If it is like other flu vaccines, it will give at most partial immunity. Also, there are other animals that can harbor the disease. Cats, ferrets, bats, and other primates. We are never going to get them all.
Utill we progress through say 20 human generations and evolution does its thing.
Voices of Reason or Con sp iracy Theo r ists?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120984583/coronavirus-lockdown-rules-should-be-relaxed-health-experts-say
“Alex” says what Gail has been saying for a long time, at least in part:
https://www.alexcartoon.com/index.cfm?cartoon_num=7653
I especially like the last slide, “With people are stuck in their homes, online gambling, pornography, and alcohol stocks are the ones to own. And Americans are all buying guns, so armament stocks look good too.”
Well, I’m still enjoying alcohol, but no more than before. However, I don’t gamble, and all my pornography is on a hard drive. (“All” comprising only ‘Minerva no Kenshi’, and you can read my review on Amazon.)
Do you own any guns yourself, Gail?
No. My father was a duck hunter, so we had that kind of gun around when I was a child, but that is the only kind of gun I have been near.
Nice to know. I believe there are places in the US where it is illegal NOT to own a gun.
What’s wrong with guns?
Here’s a more effective way of saying ‘we just made this up – you need to be scared’
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3079443/coronavirus-could-target-immune-system-targeting-protective
In two weeks this will turn out to be complete bulls hit … the SCMP will bury that in the 20th paragraph of some dull article to maintain credibility meanwhile the entire city will be talking about this – and cowering in fear.
This is very obviously the time to be pissing away cash on a big fat assed trip …. but that is bloody IMPOSSIBLE!!!! Oh I know… let me make believe I’m an astronaut and fly to the mo on. Just like Buzz did.
The effect on the T-cells seems to be temporary:
“But Lu and Jiang did not observe any growth of the coronavirus after it entered the T-cells, suggesting that the virus and T-cells might end up dying together.”
In some people, it can have a bad effect on the T-cells. This would be part of the reason for the death of some people. But it would not seem likely to be a long-lasting impact.
Most people don’t read beyond the headline…. (attention spans are very limited these days)
A very long read but a worthwhile one:
“If flattening the curve [of financial panic] in Europe and the US was the battle of March, the next challenge is to reduce the shockwaves radiating out to the rest of the world.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/14/how-coronavirus-almost-brought-down-the-global-financial-system
“In the leveraged loan market, it isn’t a question of if the downgrades and defaults will start in a recession, it’s only a question of when and how bad it will be.
“We’re concerned that the answers to these questions are soon and very.”
https://www.brinknews.com/zombies-fallen-angels-coronavirus-the-next-great-financial-crisis-recession-corporate-debt-bonds/
Regarding downgrades, the article says:
<blockquote:One of the most impacted groups would be insurers, particularly life insurers, who are among the largest holders of investment-grade credit in the world. Insurance companies are subject to strict regulatory capital charges that vary depending on the risk of the asset. In the U.S., the size of the regulatory capital charge increases by two to three-and-a-half times for bonds that are downgraded to junk status, which would adversely impact insurers’ capital and solvency ratios. To the extent that bonds ultimately have to be impaired or default, this would further eat into earnings and capital cushions.
I suppose then the question comes regarding bailing out life insurers. They have a lot of pension business that could not continue, if the life insurers cannot stay in business.
I don’t think that organizations that are simply pensions have as strict rules. But many of them were in trouble before.
‘almost’…. ‘averted’…. ???
‘What Europe and the US have succeeded in doing is to flatten the curve of financial panic.’
Auto sales have imploded off of already weak numbers…
Millions upon millions of business have vapourized along with untold numbers of jobs
India just added 3 more weeks to their lockdown— Philippines says they are staying the course… America is apparently experiencing Apocalypse Now.
Airline are firing huge numbers of pilots (Air NZ just dumped 20% of their pilots). Cathay Pacific has slashed over 99% of their routes.
This does not look like a turnaround is coming soon
And all of this —- when it’s the totally wrong course of action… https://www.thecollegefix.com/epidemiologist-coronavirus-could-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/
It won’t work… if this situation ends when when the flu ends then it’s not going to end … the flu won’t be locked down…
This ho ax is going to break the back of an economy that was already paralyzed by a lack of cheap energy.
The Guardian is a little premature here….
A global financial crisis has been allayed but I agree that this is a “fingers in the dyke” exercise by governments, central banks and the IMF – a mind-boggling expansion of the same extend and pretend tactics we have been using since 2008, which hastens the inevitable end-game for the global ponzi scheme.
Thanks! Lots of moving parts to try to fix this crisis. Italy is in particularly bad shape, but the countries in the northern part of the EU aren’t invested in helping, certainly by much.
‘No end in sight’ for Philippines lockdown, president says
Without a vaccine, antibody treatment or effective medicine to treat Covid-19, the country may need to endure several waves of infection, President Rodrigo Duterte said.
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3079783/coronavirus-no-end-sight-philippines-lockdown-duterte-says
If anyone was in doubt — you should no longer be — we are never going back to anything resembling normal.
This is a CD playing out before your eyes. ‘waves of infections’…. ‘no end in sight’
Well guess what — there are hardly any infections in the Peens – we know nurses in multiple hospitals.
And multiple virologists have stated the lockdown strategy is futile – all it will do is collapse the economy. But then that’s the point.
Meanwhile I am addicted to Flight 24… I might even take the paid subscription to get rid of the ads
https://www.flightradar24.com/-40.73,169.48/5
“And multiple virologists have stated the lockdown strategy is futile – all it will do is collapse the economy. But then that’s the point.”
That’s how I see it as well and I’ve always felt, the punishment doesn’t fit the crime. I don’t recall this happening with the Hong Kong flu back in 1968 or the yearly flu which kills on average half a million globally each year.
But a virus that kills a fraction of that and is blamed for a Florida guy jumping out of a plane with NO parachute and wearing nothing but his Speedo’s. Sure, makes perfect sense.
I was in HK during SARS…. far more people died in HK during that crisis… but the city did not lockdown.
According to the article:
“The Philippines last week barred doctors, nurses and other health workers from leaving for overseas work for the duration of the state of emergency.”
Keep them at home, for quite a long time.
“Europe is heading for a double-digit slump in the first half of 2020 amid widespread lockdowns to stem the spread of the coronavirus, according to economists…
“Another downbeat message is expected later on Tuesday when the International Monetary Fund publishes its latest global outlook.
Its Managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, has already set the tone for the forecasts, saying the situation is the worst since the Great Depression almost a century ago.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-economy-slump-more-10-064510349.html
“Italy’s companies and small businesses desperately need the 740 billion euros ($807 billion) the government pledged to keep the economy afloat through the pandemic recession.
“By the time the money arrives, it might be too late.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/on-small-business/italys-crisis-funds-may-come-too-late-for-desperate-businesses/2020/04/14/a833fc52-7e06-11ea-84c2-0792d8591911_story.html
I expect that there will be a lot of problems with funds coming late or not at all.
“…current [economic] projections still underestimate the severity of the virus-driven shutdown of the global economy, an inherently messy restart process, and consequent changes to the post-crisis landscape.”
https://www.ft.com/content/acc0414e-527c-43e2-826b-c87ab1fa5f79
“Every piece of economic data that we’ve seen in recent weeks has signalled that we are dealing with an economic catastrophe of Great Depression proportions.
“Expect the calls for sovereign debt forgiveness to only grow louder.”
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/09/1586437475000/The-calls-for-sovereign-debt-relief-are-mounting/
“I increasingly think that the best hope now is for a one-off debt jubilee (where in effect, we just cancel everyone’s debt).”
https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/601153/were-on-the-road-to-a-global-debt-jubilee-thats-if-were-lucky
So all the pensioners will starve….
It amazes me these financial ‘experts’ who don’t understand what a debt jubilee is…it’s not like tipping over the Monopoly board and starting the game over
The pensioners are not contributing labor. As the system contracts, it contracts to keep only those who are needed. Pensioners are not needed.
We will be back again to a system where manual labor is needed of almost everyone. Those who are least able to provide it will be eliminated. Women will especially be needed for having babies and educating the children as they grow up. With the higher death rate, the average number of babies per mother will have to rise again, perhaps to 4 or so.
We will need to look to Africa for models of how to make the new society work.
If they aren’t going to be receiving an adequate pension, then pensioners had better make themselves useful pretty damn quick.
Welcome to Fast Eddy’s Cooking Class…
Today we will learn how to make:
Pensioner Stew
https://www.onceuponachef.com/recipes/pensioner-stew-with-carrots-potatoes.html
And no, it’s not a ‘frugal’ stew that pensioners— without pensions… turn to when they are hungry… that would be cat stew (without the potatoes and carrots)…
If it were a stew favoured by Pensioners…. then it would call Pensioner’s Stew — not Pensioner Stew….
Just like Rabbit Stew is not called Rabbit’s Stew.
The first thing you need is a hammer… and some of this … you cannot have gnarly tough meat….
https://i5.walmartimages.com/asr/3136084c-eb77-428d-8d8d-61e31d8bdf2b_1.7906ebe60ec0f4111a0b1e9a387000e5.jpeg
Alternatively you can use one of these
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/81ny3Cvnx-L._SL1500_.jpg
It’s been tried before ….
https://notevenpast.org/wp-content/uploads/imagecache/lg_/Screen%20shot%202012-06-28%20at%203.34.51%20PM.png
It strikes me Eddy that it kind of is “like that”, pieces and property flying all over the room, no-one able make sense of it, etc . . . .
I wouldn’t say that. A real shutdown *could* have closed the stock markets and furloughed gov. workers, cancelled property tax payments… But no. So it seems much more like a shakeout: Walmart open, mom&pops closed, is the pattern here.
Wolf got really really mad when I suggested that the Fed had a PPT that buys up the markets if there is a sharp downturn that threatens to get out of control….
Wolf is very similar to Norm…. both are blind…. this says it all:
https://i.pinimg.com/736x/bb/ba/93/bbba93dcdffb0a882b764473fabc8af7.jpg
http://www.elitecolumn.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Morpheus-The-Matrix-Quotes-2.jpg
http://www.elitecolumn.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Morpheus-The-Matrix-Quotes-9.jpg
https://escapematter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/tm-1.jpg
sheesh
i wish i was an economic genius too
so everybody’s mortgage is wiped out, and all the houses become ‘free’—whoopee.
all the debt on everything
so all the financial backup systems collapse. and all pension systems collapse
and worst of all—i am reduced to agreeing with Fast Eddy—how bad can things get?
First Collector : At this festive time of year, Mr. Scrooge, it is more than usually desirable that we should make some slight provision for the poor and destitute.
Scrooge : Are there no prisons?
First Collector : Plenty of prisons.
Scrooge : And the union workhouses – are they still in operation?
First Collector : They are. I wish I could say they were not.
Scrooge : Oh, from what you said at first I was afraid that something had happened to stop them in their useful course. I’m very glad to hear it.
First Collector : I don’t think you quite understand us, sir. A few of us are endeavoring to buy the poor some meat and drink, and means of warmth.
Scrooge : Why?
First Collector : Because it is at Christmastime that want is most keenly felt, and abundance rejoices. Now what can I put you down for?
Scrooge: Huh! Nothing!
Second Collector : You wish to be anonymous?
Scrooge : [firmly, but calmly] I wish to be left alone. Since you ask me what I wish sir, that is my answer. I help to support the establishments I have named; those who are badly off must go there.
First Collector : Many can’t go there.
Second Collector : And some would rather die.
Scrooge: If they would rather die, they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population.
Starve em… lockerdown … May 3 ain’t gonna do it … takes longer nthat to starve em!
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/india-extends-coronavirus-lockdown-till-may-3.html
“Debt held by the public is on track to exceed the size of the entire U.S. economy this year for the first time since World War II, according to a new analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget…
“…the deficit for fiscal 2020 will exceed $3.8 trillion, more than 2.5 times the record set during the Great Recession.”
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/budget/492531-federal-debt-to-exceed-gdp-for-first-time-since-world-war-II-watchdog
A handy list of all the Fed’s eye-popping interventions to date:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/coronavirus-update-here-is-everything-the-fed-has-done-to-save-the-economy.html
Wow!
Looks to me that Covid 19 deaths in the UK are additional to those normally expected.
I looked at average deaths for March (published by the Office for National Statistics) and compared this with Covid 19 deaths announced by the NHS.
Deaths are up 990 (on the 5 year average) for the week ending 28th March whilst Covid19 deaths reported for the same week were 1025.
That sounds right.
But you need to account for the deferred death. People did not drive cars and did not die in car accidents due to lock down?
But they had more time beating their wives i’ve read.
The people often mistakenly think that when the system collapses, they will be hunting, as there is a lot of wild game, that the numbers of the wild animals are so high, that they are harming farmers.
However, they do not realize, that todays hunting and the high populations of the wild game are closely connected with the industrialized agriculture, i.e. fertilizers and machines, as the wild game lives on the fertilized pastures or the crops on the fields without fences…
https://files.constantcontact.com/db8dd73e301/308993a5-2b07-4b06-bcd3-47015807c1d2.jpg?a=1129928867844
“The [US] nation’s food supply chain is showing signs of strain, as increasing numbers of workers are falling ill with the coronavirus in meat processing plants, warehouses and grocery stores.
“The spread of the virus through the food and grocery industry is expected to cause disruptions in production and distribution of certain products like pork, industry executives, labor unions and analysts have warned in recent days. The issues follow nearly a month of stockpiling of food and other essentials by panicked shoppers that have tested supply networks as never before…
“Even before the illnesses began to spread through the industry, the supply chain had been tested intensely. Truck drivers, who were already scarce before the pandemic, couldn’t make deliveries fast enough. Hot dog factories and dairy farmers ramped up production in response to waves of panic buying.
“Those surges continue to take a toll on a system that had been built largely for customers seeking speed and convenience, not stockpiling…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/business/coronavirus-food-supply.html
Getting back to the moon landings:
When the Arabs sent up their first mission to the moon, what were the words spoke by the first Jordanian astronaut as he went down the ladder and put his feet on the surface?
One small step for Amman…..
But one gigantic cheese mountain for us gluttonous A rabs. 🙂
Boo!
UK Chancellor: Potential for a 30% drop in UK GDP – The Times
All jokes (liquidity) aside. Economics do matter.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/NINTCHDBPICT000000400667.jpg?w=960
“The Times reports that “the chancellor is said to have told colleagues that the nation’s GDP could fall by as much as 30 per cent between April and June as cabinet colleagues call for restrictions to be eased.”
Ministers said that Rishi Sunak discussed the possibility of a “25 per cent to 30 per cent” fall in the second quarter of this year.
City analysts have forecast an average 14 per cent contraction in the economy caused by the coronavirus lockdown, but some banks have predicted a drop of 24 per cent. The Treasury is conducting its own analysis which is yet to be completed.
Ten cabinet ministers are now pressing for the easing of the lockdown next month because they are concerned that the “cure” for the disease…”
“Britain’s financial services sector suffered a drop in profits and a spike in bad debts even before the coronavirus prompted a countrywide lockdown.
“A jump in bad debts could be worrying for banks, which are on the frontline of the Treasury’s coronavirus rescue plans.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/14/uk-financial-services-looked-gloomy-even-before-covid-19-crisis
“In recent years, pressure has been building in the UK’s energy sector. Many suppliers have adopted a muscular approach to winning new customers: charge as little and scale up as quickly as possible.
“But this risky strategy has left a number of companies with virtually no safety net…”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/04/14/energy-suppliers-risk-going-bankrupt-customers-default-payments/
Yep, the world economy was already smelling like old dog food before CV-19 arrived on the scene.
Interesting!
They have bought into the MSM’s and Chris Martenson’s fear and hysteria.
Meanwhile in Ecuador…
https://youtu.be/XHsfjnRB-uA
Guayaquil has a population of 3 million…
because the R0 of this virus is much higher than the average flu, the danger in urban areas is multiples higher… kind of obvious…
I await the surge in Mexico City, which should come at the end of April or into May…
It’s like a ticking time bomb.
Ya like Bali — been ticking for months now ….
Speaking to one of my mates who had the virus …. he was telling me that two+ months ago a long term tenant in one of his properties had a pretty bad flu as did the kids…. sore throat dry cough….
He’s now thinking they had the Wuhan…. so this flu has been present in Bali for at least ten weeks… ticking along
So where’s the apocalypse?
Perhaps the NYT should send a reporter to Bali to create an Apocalypse there too?????
Here’s what the ticking sounds like in Ecuador (population 16 million, GDP per capita about US$6,000, described by the World Bank as “an extremely poor country. Thirty-five percent of its population lived in poverty in 1994 and an additional seventeen percent were highly vulnerable to poverty. In addition, rural poverty is undoubtedly more severe than urban poverty”):
Over the 5-year period studied (2011-15) there were a total of 14.84 million cases of acute respiratory infections with 17 757 deaths reported (0.12%). About 17 241 deaths (97.2%) were attributed to influenza or pneumonia (ICD-10 codes J09-J18). Significant differences were observed among the mortality rates across all age categories (p<0.00005). Mortality rates during the studied period were higher in the over 60 years-old age group being 6 to 9 times higher than in the population under 5 years-old, the other age categories had statistically significant lower rates (p<0.00005).
There were 258 261 hospital discharges during the study period, 74.15% due to ICD-10 codes J09-J18, J85-J86. Incidence of acute upper respiratory infections (J00-J06) was higher in the age group under 5 years-old in all the periods studied.
Most of the available estimations of burden of pneumonia, acute respiratory diseases and other infectious diseases, have been done through methodologies based on analysis of systematic reviews, expert opinion, literature reviews and data extrapolation. In 2013, Savy et al. performed a systematic review to estimate the burden of influenza in Latin America and the Caribbean. This group stated that pneumonia and influenza related deaths are most common in population age groups under 5 years-old and over 60-years-old, reporting that influenza and pneumonia deaths in Ecuador were the highest in Latin America (14.4%) for the year 2003 in children under 5 years-old. Finally, they stated that underreporting and scarce information impede accurate estimation of impact of influenza in the region of Latin America and the Caribbean.
And if you listen carefully, you can hear that tick-tock all around the Third World:
Worldwide, acute respiratory infections were responsible for about 1.9 million pediatric deaths in 2000. According the Forum of International Respiratory Diseases, more than 4 million deaths annually are produced by acute respiratory infections in developing countries. This forum attributes risk factors as living in crowded conditions, malnutrition, lack of immunization, HIV and exposure to tobacco or indoor smoke.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5929540/
Ya when the SURGE arrives maybe they can borrow the Javits Centre from NYC since they dont need it …
Check it out — completely empty:
6 minute mark
https://youtu.be/mNzFMiq2qQ8
http://media-cache-ec0.pinimg.com/736x/81/1c/ca/811ccabc00c6f4d65502f7515716ec3f.jpg
Maybe they need a Film Your Hospital in that country too…. it’s way too easy to fak e, exaggerate or provide the no context when reporting…
After all, look at how they fa k ed… the M landings….
More fa ke ry here:
https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/central-park-coronavirus-field-hospital-near-capacity/
Ok pal, whatever you think.
No pal – it’s not what i think – it’s what I KNOW…
Lie after Lie :
https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/cbs-admits-to-using-footage-from-italy-in-report-about-nyc/
https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/central-park-coronavirus-field-hospital-near-capacity/
And lockdowns will never work – but they will collapse the economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm
Dripping sarcasm aint worth the bytes its posted in. Its the cure everything just like isolation. It is the mark of a individual who feels helpless because they are unwilling to take in information that contradicts their paradigm.
Go f#ck yourself.
words can expose so much (however brief)
not just a lack of knowledge of human physiology
Another demonstration that explains why Jacinda and Justin voted for lockdown ….
When people are put under stress (even in OFW) — they react with anger.
Put them in a collapse situation with no police or military …. gosh…. imagine what that would look like!!!
Humans are actually quite unpleasant beasts… we didn’t get the Top Predator Award by singing Koombaya …
Chris martenson is possibly the biggest as s h—ole on the p—-lan et… worse than Wolf.
I challenge them both to a knife fight.
You might want to only lick 3 toads a day not 4. Your losing it.
“Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent” Salvor Hardin, Mayor of Terminus.
Oh I dunno about that… I’ve been quite fascinated with the history of central asia since spending two weeks in Uzbekistan….
Violence worked very well for quite a number of those fellas….
It also worked quite well for the Rus, Greeks, Romans Ottomans, Spanish, Russians, Germans, Americans….
I’ve been listening to quite a few Great Courses on central and south American civilizations after a visit to Mexico last January … violence seemed to work very well for them as well.
Who is ‘Salvor Hardin’
Did he co-write Kumbaya with Joan?
You do realize that with very LITTLE effort I have made a complete fool of you. very little … I didn’t even have to ponder for even a second on that response…. it just exploded out in a flurry of key taps… try throwing a stone at a flock of birds …
Now imagine if I were to spend a few minutes of my morning wanting to seriously ruin you….
But then why would I do that…. you are barely worth the minute or so spent on this…. I only do it to protect the Fast Eddy brand… because we can’t have anyone getting the wrong message… can we
Sorry about the mess — chalk it up to my incompetence
https://vosizneias.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/APTOPIX-Mideast-Iraq_sham.jpg