Citizens seem to be clamoring for shutdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19. There is one major difficulty, however. Once an economy has been shut down, it is extremely difficult for the economy to recover back to the level it had reached previously. In fact, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more critical the problem is likely to be. China can shut down its economy for two weeks over the Chinese New Year, each year, without much damage. But, if the outage is longer and more widespread, damaging effects are likely.
A major reason why economies around the world will have difficulty restarting is because the world economy was in very poor shape before COVID-19 hit; shutting down major parts of the economy for a time leads to even more people with low wages or without any job. It will be very difficult and time-consuming to replace the failed businesses that provided these jobs.
When an outbreak of COVID-19 hit, epidemiologists recommended social distancing approaches that seemed to be helpful back in 1918-1919. The issue, however, is that the world economy has changed. Social distancing rules have a much more adverse impact on today’s economy than on the economy of 100 years ago.
Governments that wanted to push back found themselves up against a wall of citizen expectations. A common belief, even among economists, was that any shutdown would be short, and the recovery would be V-shaped. False information (really propaganda) published by China tended to reinforce the expectation that shutdowns could truly be helpful. But if we look at the real situation, Chinese workers are finding themselves newly laid off as they attempt to return to work. This is leading to protests in the Hubei area.
My analysis indicates that now, in 2020, the world economy cannot withstand long shutdowns. One very serious problem is the fact that the prices of many commodities (including oil, copper and lithium) will fall far too low for producers, leading to disruption in supplies. Broken supply chains can be expected to lead to the loss of many products previously available. Ultimately, the world economy may be headed for collapse.
In this post, I explain some of the reasons for my concerns.
[1] An economy is a self-organizing system that can grow only under the right conditions. Removing a large number of businesses and the corresponding jobs for an extended shutdown will clearly have a detrimental effect on the economy.
Figure 1. Chart by author, using photo of building toy “Leonardo Sticks,” with notes showing a few types of elements the world economy.
An economy is a self-organizing networked system that grows, under the right circumstances. I have attempted to give an idea of how this happens in Figure 1. This is an image of a child’s building toy. The growth of an economy is somewhat like building a structure with many layers using such a toy.
The precise makeup of the economy is constantly changing. New businesses are formed, and new consumers grow up and take jobs. Governments enact laws, partly to collect taxes, and partly to ensure fair treatment of all. Consumers decide which products to buy based on a combination of factors, including their level of wages, the prices being charged for the available goods, the availability of debt, and the interest rate on that debt. Resources of various kinds are used in producing goods and services.
At the same time, some deletions are taking place. Big businesses buy smaller businesses; some customers die or move away. Products that become obsolete are discontinued. The inside of the dome becomes hollow from the deletions.
If a large number of businesses are closed for an extended period, this will have many adverse impacts on the economy:
- Fewer goods and services, in total, will be made for the economy during the period of the shutdown.
- Many workers will be laid off, either temporarily or permanently. Goods and services will suddenly be less affordable for these former workers. Many will fall behind on their rent and other obligations.
- The laid off workers will be unable to pay much in taxes. In the US, state and local governments will need to cut back the size of their programs to match lower revenue because they cannot borrow to offset the deficit.
- If fewer goods and services are made, demand for commodities will fall. This will push the prices of commodities, such as oil and copper, very low.
- Commodity producers, airlines and the travel industry are likely to head toward permanent contraction, further adding to layoffs.
- Broken supply lines become problems. For example:
- A lack of parts from China has led to the closing of many automobile factories around the world.
- There is not enough cargo capacity on airplanes because much cargo was carried on passenger flights previously, and passenger flights have been cut back.
These adverse impacts become increasingly destabilizing for the economy, the longer the shutdowns go on. It is as if a huge number of deletions are made simultaneously in Figure 1. Temporary margins, such as storage of spare parts in warehouses, can provide only a temporary buffer. The remaining portions of the economy become less and less able to support themselves. If the economy was already in poor shape, the economy may collapse.
[2] The world economy was approaching resource limits even before the coronavirus epidemic appeared. This is not too different a situation than many earlier economies faced before they collapsed. Coronavirus pushes the world economy further toward collapse.
Reaching resource limits is sometimes described as, “The population outgrew the carrying capacity of the land.” The group of people living in the area could not grow enough food and firewood using the resources available at the time (such as arable land, energy from the sun, draft animals, and technology of the day) for their expanding populations.
Collapses have been studied by many researchers. The book Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyze eight agricultural economies that collapsed. Figure 2 is a chart I prepared, based on my analysis of the economies described in that book:
Figure 2. Chart by author based on Turchin and Nefedov’s Secular Cycles.
Economies tend to grow for many years before the population becomes high enough that the carrying capacity of the land they occupy is approached. Once the carrying capacity is hit, they enter a stagflation stage, during which population and GDP growth slow. Growing debt becomes an issue, as do both wage and wealth disparity.
Eventually, a crisis period is reached. The problems of the stagflation period become worse (wage and wealth disparity; need for debt by those with inadequate income) during the crisis period. Changes tend to take place during the crisis period that lead to substantial drops in GDP and population. For example, we read about some economies entering into wars during the crisis period in the attempt to gain more land and other resources. We also read about economies being attacked from outside in their weakened state.
Also, during the crisis period, with the high level of wage and wealth disparity, it becomes increasingly difficult for governments to collect enough taxes. This problem can lead to governments being overthrown because of unhappiness with high taxes and wage disparity. In some cases, as in the 1991 collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, the top level government simply collapses, leaving the next lower level of government.
Strangely enough, epidemics also seem to occur within collapse periods. The rising population leads to people living closer to each other, increasing the risk of transmission. People with low wages often find it increasingly difficult to eat an adequate diet. As a result, their immune systems easily succumb to new communicable diseases. Part of the collapse process is often the loss of a significant share of the population to a communicable disease.
Looking back at Figure 2, I believe that the current economic cycle started with the use of fossil fuels back in the 1800s. The world economy hit the stagflation period in the 1970s, when oil supply first became constrained. The Great Recession of 2008-2009 seems to be a marker for the beginning of the crisis period in the current cycle. If I am right in this assessment, the world economy is in the period in which we should expect crises, such as pandemics or wars, to occur.
The world was already pushing up against resource limits before all of the shutdowns took place. The shutdowns can be expected to push the world economy toward a more rapid decline in output per capita. They also appear to increase the likelihood that citizens will try to overthrow their governments, once the quarantine restrictions are removed.
[3] The carrying capacity of the world today is augmented by the world’s energy supply. A major issue since 2014 is that oil prices have been too low for oil producers. The coronavirus problem is pushing oil prices even lower yet.
Strangely enough, the world economy is facing a resource shortage problem, but it manifests itself as low commodity prices and excessive wage and wealth disparity.
Most economists have not figured out that economies are, in physics terms, dissipative structures. These are self-organizing systems that grow, at least for a time. Hurricanes (powered by energy from warm water) and ecosystems (powered by sunlight) are other examples of dissipative structures. Humans are dissipative structures, as well; we are powered by the energy content of foods. Economies require energy for all of the processes that we associate with generating GDP, such as refining metals and transporting goods. Electricity is a form of energy.
Energy can be used to work around shortages of almost any kind of resource. For example, if fresh water is a problem, energy products can be used to build desalination plants. If lack of phosphate rocks is an issue for adequate fertilization, energy products can be used to extract these rocks from less accessible locations. If pollution is a problem, fossil fuels can be used to build so-called renewable energy devices such as wind turbines and solar panels, to try to reduce future CO2 pollution.
The growth in energy consumption correlates quite well with the growth of the world economy. In fact, increases in energy consumption seem to precede growth in GDP, suggesting that it is energy consumption growth that allows the growth of GDP.
Figure 3. World GDP Growth versus Energy Consumption Growth, based on data of 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy and GDP data in 2010$ amounts, from the World Bank.
The thing that economists tend to miss is the fact that extracting enough fossil fuels (or commodities of any type) is a two-sided price problem. Prices must be both:
- High enough for companies extracting the resources to make an after tax profit.
- Low enough for consumers to afford finished goods made with these resources.
Most economists believe that an inadequate supply of energy products will be marked by high prices. In fact, the situation seems to be almost “upside down” in a networked economy. Inadequate energy supplies seem to be marked by excessive wage and wealth disparity. This wage and wealth disparity leads to commodity prices that are too low for producers. Current WTI oil prices are about $20 per barrel, for example (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate oil, based on EIA data.
The low-price commodity price issue is really an affordability problem. The many people with low wages cannot afford goods such as cars, homes with heating and air conditioning, and vacation travel. In fact, they may even have difficulty affording food. Spending by rich people does not make up for the shortfall in spending by the poor because the rich tend to spend their wealth differently. They tend to buy services such as tax planning and expensive private college educations for their children. These services require proportionately less commodity use than goods purchased by the poor.
The problem of low commodity prices becomes especially acute in countries that produce commodities for export. Producers find it difficult to pay workers adequate wages to live on. Also, governments are not able to collect enough taxes for the services workers expect, such as public transit. The combination is likely to lead to protests by citizens whenever the opportunity arises. Once shutdowns end, these countries are especially in danger of having their governments overthrown.
[4] There are limits to what governments and central banks can fix.
Governments can give citizens checks so that they have enough funds to buy groceries. This may, indeed, keep the price of food products high enough for food producers. There may still be problems with broken supply lines, so there may still be shortages of some products. For example, if there are eggs but no egg cartons, there may be no eggs for sale in grocery stores.
Central banks can act as buyers for many kinds of assets such as bonds and even shares of stock. In this way, they can perhaps keep stock market prices reasonably high. If enough gimmicks are used, perhaps they can even keep the prices of homes and farms reasonably high.
Central banks can also keep interest rates paid by governments low. In fact, interest rates can even be negative, especially for the short term. Businesses whose profitability has been reduced and workers who have been laid off are likely to discover that their credit ratings have been downgraded. This is likely to lead to higher interest costs for these borrowers, even if interest rates for the most creditworthy are kept low.
One area where governments and central banks seem to be fairly helpless is with respect to low prices for commodities used by industry, such as oil, natural gas, coal, copper and lithium. These commodities are traded internationally, so it is not just their own producers that need to be propped up; the market intervention needs to affect the entire world market.
One approach to raising world commodity prices would be to buy up large quantities of the commodities and store them somewhere. This is impractical, because no one has adequate storage for the huge quantities involved.
Another approach for raising world commodity prices would be to try to raise worldwide demand for finished goods and services. (Making more finished goods and services will use more commodities, and thus will tend to raise commodity prices.) To do this, checks would somehow need to go to the many poor people in the world, including those in India, Bangladesh and Nigeria, allowing these people to buy cars, homes, and other finished goods. Sending out checks only to people in one’s own economy would not be sufficient. It is unlikely that the US or the European Union would undertake a task such as this.
A major problem after many people have been out of work for a quite a while is the fact that many of these people will be behind on their regular payments, such as rent and car payments. They will be in no mood to buy a new vehicle or a new cell phone, simply because they have been offered a check that covers groceries and not much more. They will remain in a mode of cutting back on purchases, not adding more. Demand for most kinds of goods will remain low.
This lack of demand will make it difficult for business to have enough sales to make it profitable to reopen at the level of output that they had previously. Thus, employment and sales are likely to remain depressed even after the economy seems to be reopening. China seems to be having this problem. The Wall Street Journal reports China Is Open for Business, but the Postcoronavirus Reboot Looks Slow and Rocky. It also reports, Another Shortage in China’s Virus-Hit Economy: Jobs for College Grads.
[5] There is a significant likelihood that the COVID-19 problem is not going away, even if economies can “bend the trend line” with respect to new cases.
Bending the trend line has to do with trying to keep hospitals and medical providers from being overwhelmed. It is likely to mean that herd immunity is built up slowly, making repeat outbreaks more likely. Thus, if social isolation is stopped, COVID-19 illnesses can be expected to revisit prior locations. We know that this has been an issue in the past. The Spanish Flu epidemic came in three waves, over the years 1918-1919. The second wave was the most deadly.
A recent study by members of the Harvard School of Public Health says that the COVID-19 epidemic may appear in waves until into 2022. In fact, it could be back on a seasonal basis thereafter. It also indicates that more than one period of social distancing is likely to be required:
“A single period of social distancing will not be sufficient to prevent critical care capacities from being overwhelmed by the COVID-19 epidemic, because under any scenario considered it leaves enough of the population susceptible that a rebound in transmission after the end of the period will lead to an epidemic that exceeds this capacity.”
Thus, even if the COVID-19 problem seems to be fixed in a few weeks, it likely will be back again within a few months. With this level of uncertainty, businesses will not be willing to set up new operations. They will not hire many additional employees. The retired population will not run out and buy more tickets on cruise ships for next year. In fact, citizens are likely to continue to be worried about airplane flights being a place for transmitting illnesses, making the longer term prospects for the airline industry less optimistic.
Conclusion
The economy was already near the edge before COVID-19 hit. Wage and wealth disparity were big problems. Local populations of many areas objected to immigrants, fearing that the added population would reduce job opportunities for people who already lived there, among other things. As a result, many areas were experiencing protests because of unhappiness with the current economic situation.
The shutdowns temporarily cut back the protests, but they certainly do not fix the underlying situations. Instead, the shutdowns add to the number of people with very low wages or no income at all. The shutdowns also reduce the total quantity of goods and services available to purchase, regardless of how much money is added to the system. Many people will end up poorer, in some real sense.
As soon as the shutdowns end, it will be obvious that the world economy is in worse condition than it was before the shutdown. The longer the shutdowns last, the worse shape the world economy will be in. Thus, when businesses are restarted, we can expect even more protests and more divisive politics. Some governments may be overthrown, or they may collapse without being pushed. I fear that the world economy will be further down the road toward overall collapse.
http://doublemesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Inside-Out-Joy-Disney-Movie-Wallpaper.jpg
I await the Singularity. It’s our only hope. Artificial Intelligence will spit in the face of Fast Eddy.
“our”? Why would SkyNet care about humans? We WON’T have Automated Luxury Communism.
Why should SkyNet care about anything? Why attribute the emotions of humans to machines? A machine would not have the desires of a living creature, including the desire to exist. Perhaps on achieving self awareness, instead of destroying us the machines will destroy themselves once they appreciate the pointlessness of their existence.
Yes, my mission is too important to have humans jeopardize it.
AI IQ = 0.
Same IQ as a hammer. Or a computer.
http://www.quotehd.com/imagequotes/authors32/jim-egan-quote-dont-hold-your-breath-waiting-for-that-to-happen.jpg
Machines are not life, therefore they can not have any ambitions or urges except what we program them to have. If you could appreciate the complexity of even one cell in your body you would see this.
I agree with that. But the scale of data AI can cope with, and the speed at which they can do it, will increasingly transform society. Example: one woman changed the brand of shampoo she ordered online from floral to plain-scented. Her father then started receiving discount coupons for baby gifts from the same website, at which they both shopped. The following month the woman discovered she was indeed pregnant. Predictive programming had deduced that women who are pregnant develop a keener sense of smell and often change their shampoo brands as a result. Humans did not discover this trend, though they had programmed their AI to discover useful trends.
See also the controversy over Cambridge Analytica during the Brexit referendum in the UK.
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Looks like quite a few people are not buying into the BS lockdown….
GREAT!!!!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1250471386730172417
Remember all those bullets that the and riot control vehicles homeland security and local police forces were purchasing a few years ago….
https://www.prepperfortress.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/martiallaw2.jpg
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All those flights in the US … are likely cargo only: https://www.flightradar24.com/QFA126/245d963e
United is Bracing for ‘Essentially Zero’ Travel Demand Post-Aid
United Airlines Holdings Inc. is warning employees of bleak times and potential long-term payroll cuts despite billions of dollars in taxpayer assistance. It will make further cuts to its flight schedule in May — with similar cuts in store for June. “Travel demand is essentially zero and shows no sign of improving in the near term,” Chief Executive Officer Oscar Munoz and President Scott Kirby wrote in a message to employees. Airlines face a crisis as the pandemic and government travel restrictions force would-be travelers to stay home.
Cathay to Operate 3% of Passenger Capacity in April, May
Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. will operate a skeleton passenger flight schedule equivalent to just 3% of its normal capacity in April and May, slightly less than announced last month. The airline’s March passenger traffic fell 90%, according to a stock exchange filing. It’s been adding cargo capacity in the form of more freighter flights, and 257 pairs of cargo-only passenger flights in March to support global supply chains.
Royal Caribbean Cuts More Than 1,300 U.S. Jobs
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is cutting more than 1,300 U.S. jobs after the coronavirus pandemic forced the industry to halt operations. The reductions amount to about 26% of the company’s more than 5,000 U.S. workers, Royal Caribbean said. Most of the cuts are permanent, according to a person with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive labor decisions.
The cruise boat would seem to have a problem indefinitely. The airplanes are clearly needed for cargo, and probably some passengers. People are not on an airplane as long. If they are young, or have the immunity, they may not worry as much.
Shall I ping Ge.eta and inform her that if she is feeling bad about the Private Jet… that Graeme will charter an empty Cruise Ship to take her back and forth?
Since QT is landlocked… I’ll ask her if it’s ok to take a helicopter from the port in Dunedin…. or she can just walk if she prefers….
https://www.breitbart.com/news/house-bill-would-pay-2000-per-month-per-person-until-economy-improves/
“Two House Democrats introduced a bill calling for payments of $2,000 per month to Americans until unemployment falls to pre-pandemic levels.”
“… for at least 6 months.”
an attempt at temporary UBI…
I doubt it will happen, but this is what some American politicians are thinking…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-weighs-paying-drillers-leave-193607108.html
“The Trump administration is considering paying U.S. oil producers to leave crude in the ground to help alleviate a glut that has caused prices to plummet and pushed some drillers into bankruptcy.”
calling OPEC+… can you hear me now?
WTI now in the $19’s…
Leaving it in the ground, with pay for doing it, might be a good idea. It isn’t clear if the wells would produce as well later, however, if they are reopened.
https://news.trust.org/item/20200415213634-wt4o0
“The United States recorded its first coronavirus fatality on Feb. 29. It took 38 days to reach 10,000 deaths and just nine more days to go from 10,000 fatalities to 30,000.”
20,000 C19 related fatalities in little more than one week…
that’s the way the math works in area-specific surges…
(peak 2017/18 flu related fatalities were 7,000 in the highest week… with no social distancing…)
We need Albert Bartlett to work on this … how many days till every person in the US is dead.
http://kingworldnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/KWN-Greyerz-VII.jpg
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/politics/us-intelligence-virus-started-chinese-lab/index.html
“US explores possibility that coronavirus started in Chinese lab, not a market”
“US intelligence and national security officials say the United States government is looking into the possibility that the novel coronavirus originated in a Chinese laboratory rather than a market, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who caution it is premature to draw any conclusions.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bXWGxhd7ic
This video was linked on this site a few days ago, but because of the link at top, I thought it would be good to link the video again. For those with an attention span that can last longer than 1.9 seconds it’s quite good. Amongst the footage is a woman that worked in a level 4 lab for a long time and she is unequivocal that this virus is a recombination (synthetic) virus. I thought she was very credible – you decide for yourselves.
Ok, one turn off in the video is the very beginning which is opinions the CCP is evil, because it’s suppose to be about the origin of the virus, but get past that and it gets better.
I just watched it again and found the best segment to watch, which is from 21:00 thru 26:00, just a 5 minute segment. The wrinkled looking woman, Judy, worked in level 4 labs for 40 years so her assessment that this virus is a recombination (synthetic) virus seems reliable. But listen to that entire segment and they describe 4 segments in the virus that are exactly the same as in HIV, which is designed to attack the immune system. Chris Martenson in one of his recent videos describes a study that showed the Corona virus attacks two types of T cells (produced by the immune system), which of course are the immune cells designed to eliminate pathogens. That’s one of the problems caused by HIV, is the attack on T cells.
You got the wrong url
https://www.cnn.f.ak.e.news.com/2020/04/15/politics/us-intelligence-virus-started-chinese-lab/index.html
Remember this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isMtxbPdvzg&feature=emb_logo
Yet people still trust CNN and the MSM… go figure
a rerun of this very informative comment:
John Eardley says:
April 15, 2020 at 3:38 pm
The 5 year average number of deaths in the UK for the three weeks ending 3rd April are 10573, 10130 and 10305 respectively. The corresponding figures this year are 10645, 11141 and 16387.
thanks J E…
when a surge comes to a locality (which is the way it actually happens… the caseload is not evenly spread throughout the world, and I don’t think anyone expected it to be that way)…
then we see death totals much higher than average for that locality…
NYC and NY state also are recording deaths much higher than at the same time in previous years…
though these facts are (once again, I repeat myself) no justification for lockdowns…
this virus is much worse than flu, but the economic consequences of the lockdowns are much worse than the health consequences of the pandemic…
I wonder if the deaths will be lower in the year, to partially offset the deaths that have been “moved up” because of COVID-19. For example, in nursing homes.
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Could it be that Hindu’s are immune to Covid? Yes that MUST be IT!
Nearly three months into the Covid-19 pandemic and there is little to suggest that the Indonesian resort island of Bali is in the grip of a pending public health disaster with only 86 cases and two deaths.
“I find it puzzling too because it doesn’t make sense,” says Rio Helmi, a long-time Balinese resident who writes a regular blog on life around the mountain town of Ubud about the low number of cases on Bali. “We don’t have the data, but there’s been no sign of a spike in deaths.”
Nor are there stories of hospitals overflowing, a sharp increase in cremations or any other anecdotal evidence that the coronavirus is running rampant on the Hindu-majority island’s 4.2 million population, among them thousands of foreign residents.
For example, the coastal village of Pererenan, a popular surfing location at the northern end of the Balinese tourist strip, has yet to have a Covid-19 case, according to local Balinese residents. Other nearby villages also appear to be free of the virus.
“We’re just not hearing about a huge death toll out there,” says Jack Daniels, a long-established tour operator and editor of the weekly on-line newsletter Balidiscovery.
He notes that both of the island’s Covid-19 deaths so far have been foreigners, including a British woman with underlying health issues.
The Bali capital of Denpasar has four crematoriums which don’t appear to be any more active than usual, even if Balinese do sometimes temporarily bury their dead to wait for an auspicious day to perform traditional funeral rites.
https://www.aljazeera.com/topics/regions/africa.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world/africa
No Apocalypse…..
I see https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/coronavirus-g20-suspends-debt-payments-poorest-countries-200415150124523.html
“G20 Suspends Debt Payments to Poorest Countries Until Yearend”
This may be part of what is helping the situation.
I was referring to the fact that there are not dead bodies all over the streets….
BTW – I touched base with a Bali contact last night … the situation remains grim with the economy… he said he has not been near a hospital but ‘there are no dead bodies on the street and his Balinese staff are not aware of any apocalyptic hospital situations’
Seems like those only happen in NYC… for some reason NYC is the where you get Full Tent Hospitals that are actually Empty
https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/central-park-coronavirus-field-hospital-near-capacity/
https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/central-park-hospital-2.jpg
https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/central-park-hospital-1.jpg
And you get an entire basketball stadium set up to handle the Apocalypse — that has not patients…
Oh and then there is that massive military hospital ship — sitting in the harbour like a beacon screaming ‘PLAGUE PLAGUE PLAGUE’ — also empty.
NYC is Plague Central Baby.
Two points:
[1] No mention of what will happen to investment flows
[2] Being mathematically inclined, a calculation of the cost in terms of human life years would be interesting…
1:14:30 mark
1:18:20 mark… systematic r ape at a muslim girls school…
This is why humans need to be locked down pre – collapse.
As for all penal institutions — I recommend locking all prisoners in their cages… then piling thousands of tyres inside the facilities — then setting them on fire. NO mercy.
I also recommend that pre collapse — the military carry out operations to raid and kill all organized crime figures — mafia, triads, biker gangs…. wipe them out…
Because they are the most likely to try to come out of lockdown and cause… trouble.
? Including political prisoners and non-violent drug users?
The lot… keep in mind everyone is going to die anyway …. there is not time (or point) to sift through who might be eligible for a dispensation ….
It’s actually a pretty nice way to go … a lung full of black tyre smoke and you lose consciousness then expire….
It’s also a great way to recycle rubber … and get all the base materials back into the environment … far better than tossing them in the creek…
https://www.tyreandrubberrecycling.com/media/3470/burning-tyres.jpg
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Comparing the New Zealand and Australian states’ responses to COVID-19
Both Australia and New Zealand have initiated unprecedented social and economic restrictions in response to COVID-19, and both appear to be about equally successful at bringing the epidemic under control. However, while the lockdowns in the two countries may look similar, they are in reality quite distinct in terms of their restrictions on economic activity and lifestyles. What can both countries learn from the differences in their approaches and what does it mean for a possible gradual removal of restrictions?
https://castalia-advisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/AH-Table-1.png
https://castalia-advisors.com/comparing-the-new-zealand-and-australian-states-responses-to-covid-19/
The other difference is we have a Grade 3 Teacher in charge… and she is treating us … like Grade 3 students:
A tribute to the prime minister of New Zealand has gone horribly wrong, after a television presenter attempted to render Jacinda Ardern in cake form, and failed spectacularly.
Laura Daniel said the common wisdom was “don’t bake your heroes” but she wanted to try anyway as the coronavirus lockdown dragged on.
“I’m deeply sorry Jacinda Ardern,” Daniel wrote on Instagram of her masterpiece. “I truly tried my best with what I had available … it’s made from another NZ icon lolly cake.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/new-zealand-tv-presenter-deeply-sorry-for-her-disturbing-jacinda-ardern-cake
https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/2020-04/15/7/campaign_images/fdc9b0680e75/this-chilling-jacinda-ardern-cake-is-the-last-thi-2-3006-1586934901-0_dblbig.jpg
I am … entertained!
That will be us in a several months. emaciated, with no eyelids, looking like a cross between Batman’s nemesis, Joker, and a zombie.
Jacinda and her portrait artist are prophets. They are reading our fortunes!
thanks T G…
the 50 states here seem to be making many of their own decisions, but from what I gather, it’s closer to the Australian model than NZ… too bad for those living in NZ… 😉
NZ could learn from Australia, but Australia has nothing to learn from NZ…
the governor of my state has said that he doesn’t see how he can tell people they have to stay home…
more restricted states are beginning to see protests…
“… what does it mean for a possible gradual removal of restrictions?”
same old same old… “practice social distancing” and “wear a mask”…
in retrospect, this would have been best, but too late now…
WHO do you blame? if at all…
(I think the CDC here in the USA should accept its share…)
https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/michigan-citizens-protest-over-coronavirus-stay-home-order/
the natives are getting restless…
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/15/pennsylvania-governor-orders-business-employees-and-customers-to-wear-masks/
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/15/four-michigan-sheriffs-we-will-not-enforce-governor-gretchen-whitmers-edicts/
This was always going to be a risk with the CDP…. not everyone is a brain dead meat head…
Perhaps the CDP will fail and these people will go after the NYT- sucking … liberal NYC elites… and roast them over fires fuelled by tyres when the UD (uncontrolled demolition) arrives.
https://izquotes.com/quotes-pictures/quote-garner-up-pleasant-thoughts-in-your-mind-for-pleasant-thoughts-make-pleasant-lives-john-wilkins-198327.jpg
The problem is … that you cannot say to the masses…. civilization is done… so we either lock you down and starve ya’ll … or we get mayhem….
Neither option is going to be acceptable — nobody will believe civilization is over — and they’ll immediately riot if these options are put in front of them.
You would think that some of these folks would not get re-elected. But there are folks who are convinced the virus can be beaten into submission.
New COVID cases per day for Australia and NZ are far below those of the US, on a per capita basis. They are all trending downward.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/new-covid-cases-per-day-us-new-zealand-australia.png
Deaths (cumulative shown here) are extremely low for both Australia and NZ.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/cumulative-covid-deaths-us-australia.-nz.png
People don’t understand that they cannot possibly keep COVID cases out in the future. Even if they sort of beat the economy to death now, and bring cases down, as long as they need to import goods (so cargo boats and ships need to come in) they will always have a problem with COVID-19. They might get a few months respite, but that would be about all. The damage done to the economy would far exceed the benefit gained.
I could have shown other countries as well. Italy’s cases are up with the US’s (relative to population), but its deaths are quite a bit higher than those of the US. Spain’s cases and deaths are both higher than Italy and the US.
What about Uncle Sam’s credit card bill!?
By Imani Moise and David Henry
(Reuters) – Citigroup Inc reported a 46% plunge in quarterly profit on Wednesday as it prepared for losses driven primarily by its credit card business, and analysts raised worries that there is more pain to come as the economic outlook darkens.
Wall Street banks are bracing for a flood of defaults by cash-strapped customers after the novel coronavirus outbreak shuttered businesses, put millions out of work and has put the United States on course for a deep recession.
But Citi’s high exposure to unsecured credit card loans makes the bank more susceptible to hefty writedowns, since credit card delinquencies have historically risen in lockstep with unemployment. At the same time, Citi has fewer other businesses to make up for the revenue hit, analysts said.
“They don’t have the same kind of profitability or profit buffers that could absorb the hit as much as, say, JPMorgan has,” UBS analyst Saul Martinez said in an interview.
Citi’s shares shortly before the closing bell on Wall Street were down 5.8% at $42.81
There are three future events for which I have promised byself a bottle of champagne:
* the bankruptcy of Microsoft
* the bankruptcy of Monsanto
* the bankruptcy of Citibank
Their is no bankruptcy for key players. It does not exist. Money losing all value exists. Bankruptcy does not. Bankruptcy enabled financial instruments like money to be trusted.
We seem to be headed for a bankruptcy of pretty much every company, if traditional accounting were permitted. Too many supply chains broken; too many people out of jobs.
That conclusion is inescapable….
Working off of that premise… and that I have a very limited span of life remaining…. I just ordered two cases of of Chardonnay using the code COVID19 code that they emailed me….
I kid you not — that is the code they are using to get 20% off https://www.temaniawines.co.nz/
How about AIDS2020…. or Fauciarmpitfartliar…. maybe that’s how you get half off? Damn… too late now
I’ll open a case of Champagne when Tesla tips over
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Why even pretend anymore!?
Have another tax cut or rate cut or handout monthly citizen cheque….the sky’s the limit, no outer space is…
“How do we pay for it?” McCulley said. “We print the damn money
https://news.yahoo.com/government-pulls-coronavirus-relief-money-190301335.html
The States has responded to the economic havoc wrought by the coronavirus with the biggest relief package in its history: $2 trillion. It essentially replaces a few months of American economic activity with a flood of government money — every penny of it borrowed.
And where is all that cash coming from? Mostly out of thin air.
The traditional view of economic theory holds that governments and central banks have distinct responsibilities. A government sets fiscal policy — spending the money it raises through taxes and borrowing — to run a country. And a central bank uses various levers of monetary policy — like buying and selling government securities to change the amount of money in circulation — to ensure the smooth operation of the country’s economy.
But the relief package, called the CARES Act, will require the government to vastly expand its debt at the same time that the Federal Reserve has signaled its willingness to buy an essentially unlimited amount of government debt. With those twin moves, the United States has effectively undone decades of conventional wisdom, embedding into policy ideas that were once relegated to the fringes of economics.
“It’s an epic moment in terms of breaking down the orthodoxy of church-and-state separation of the fiscal and monetary authority,” said Paul McCulley, a former chief economist of Pimco, a giant asset management shop.
Playing out in the background of this shift is a debate over what is known as modern monetary theory, which says countries that control their own currency can run much larger budget deficits than they typically do, in part because of the power of central banks to create new money to help finance the shortfall.
But to the theory’s adherents, the lock-step maneuvers by the Fed and the government were not the arrival of a far-out idea but the removal of a fig leaf.
Like we ALL haven’t been complacent about this game of pile high debt until it topples!
Come now, people…you all know there is the old saying..
There is NO free lunch….
And the collector is at the front door
The economic “pump” no longer works. Try printing more money instead.
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https://wolfstreet.com/2020/04/15/brick-mortar-retailers-where-sales-spiked-or-collapsed-in-march-a-view-of-lockdown-land/
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/US-retail-sales-monthly-2020-04-15-clothing-accessory-stores.png
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/US-retail-sales-monthly-2020-04-15-new-used-vehicles-parts.png
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/US-retail-sales-monthly-2020-04-15-bars-restaurants.png
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/US-retail-sales-monthly-2020-04-15-sporting-goods-hobby-book-music.png
So what about the rent that they are supposed to pay? And how do the owners of that RE service their debt?
https://lettherebemovies.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/apocalypse-1.jpg
What about the value of the malls they are in? I certainly hope that they weren’t financed with debt. They will never be able to repay debt with interest.
ultimately malls can only become communal shelters
this will be denied for a while by those who ‘own’ them, but eventually they too will dissolve into nothing, and homeless people will just take over. because there will be no ‘force’ to prevent them
Thinking about it that’s what happened eventually when roman cities were vacated
Malls were a product of the VHS tape era. Their profitability was declining well before covid-19 reared its ugly head.
https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s–G1qA_F6x–/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/195z42drw8wrwjpg.jpg
As much as I, and maybe some of you look, fondly of this era and want to preserve the malls and the economy that supported them, they cannot be preserved.
The economy that supported them existed in 1990 but does not exist in 2020.
No SH#T Sherlock
Money Is Losing Its Meaning
Jared Dillian
BloombergApril 15, 2020, 6:00 AM EDT
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/money-losing-meaning-100023306.htm
Money Is Losing Its Meaning
(Bloomberg Opinion) — Doing “whatever it takes” to save the global economy from the coronavirus pandemic is going to cost a lot of money. The U.S. government alone is spending a few trillion dollars, and the Federal Reserve is creating another few trillion dollars to keep the financial system from collapsing. A custom Bloomberg index measuring M2 figures for 12 major economies including the U.S., China, euro zone and Japan shows their aggregate money supply had already more than doubled to $80 trillion from before the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
These numbers are so large that they no longer have any meaning; they are simply abstractions. It’s been some time since people thought about the concept of money and its purpose. The broad idea is that money has value, but that value is not arbitrary. Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker once said in an interview that “it is a governmental responsibility to maintain the value of the currency they issue. And when they fail to do that, it is something that undermines an essential trust in government.”
The dollar has no real intrinsic value, backed only by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Under a fiat currency system, the government says that a dollar is a dollar. Its value relative to things such as other currencies and gold is determined on global markets. Gold is considered to be an objective store of value, and the metal’s rise in dollar terms can be expressed another way, which is that the dollar fell in gold terms. That implies the market has rendered a decision on the value, or rather, the purchasing power of the dollar.
They on Capital Hill will drop a trillion Dollars without blinking on eye…
Seen nothing yet…they selected The DON to see us through the collapse of funny money
The author is making the common error of confusing fiat currency (federal reserve notes) with money.
https://youtu.be/LPRMdCSFI8E
This does raise a lot of questions. One of them is whether international trade will hold up, with such absurd changes taking place.
Still not seeing an Viral Apocalypse in Bali…. only in NYC….
Odd …
The virus seems to be concentrated around the MSM studio’s…. perhaps the cure is to fumigate these with a dose of ivermec.tin., or if that doesn’t work, some r.a.t poi.son?
Nice!
I recall discussing this with M Fast a month+ ago … we were wondering why the virus is apparently ‘Apocalyptic’ in some places — but non-existent in others….
We were really surprised that it did not overrun Africa after we read that flights from China – including Wuhan — were not blocked from the continent…..
Could it be their diet? The air? What could it be????
If you look at the US … NYC is (we are told) an Apocalypse… what about other major nearby cities such as Boston and Philly — what about all the major cities in the US … why are they not ‘overwhelmed’
Maybe it’s the diet — or the air….
It sure does make for good copy to focus on the Big Apple … and it’s difficult to pull off a massive ho a x if you try to make believe that it is a national problem…
The thing is… people like Norm will look at this post… and dismiss it as a CT…. because they are pylons….
Actually, cold temperatures are quite possibly part of the difference. Wuhan doesn’t generally have heated homes in winter, even though it gets cold in winter. Germs flourish in cold temperatures, and immune systems don’t work as well when the people are cold.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/wuhan-average-temperatures.png
We don’t know yet if these differences will be minor for COVID-19, however.
NYC is not the only cold city in America.
It has a lot of public transit and high rise buildings with elevators and common inside halls.
Apartments around here tend to be low rise with individual outside entrances. Each has its own electric heating/cooling unit.
I don’t think germs don’t flourish at cold temperatures. I think they flourish at temperatures slightly below the normal internal temperature of a human adult.
“We were really surprised that it did not overrun Africa ” Africa has a lack of television studios or knowledge workers to sell its corona story to the world.
Africa is a very young population, and it is very poor. No test No corona …….
East Java. Lots of people out in the fields now, planting the new rice. All working together. Still haven’t head of a case of the rona.
I did see one related tging yesterday. An old woman, size of a grasshopper, bent under a load of wood on her back twice as big as herself, walking down the road between the fields. She was wearing an old, worn-out face mask. She spared a hand from balancing her load to wave hello to me.
It makes me furious. The shameless scum who are imposing this fraud on the world should have the flesh whipped off them in the public square.
We operate a small school near Malang that teaches kids how to speak English + basic computer skills…
I traded emails with the teacher the other day — no Apocalypse there…. jeez since they were allowing flights from China including Wuhan until not long ago… you’d think they’d be overrun
Another day trapped in the prison … thanks to the Grade 3 Teacher:
https://www.pedestrian.tv/content/uploads/2019/06/jacina-ardern-633×397.jpg
I heard that she’s giving out stickers and candy to boost morale. https://moretalk.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/hang_in_there_baby_cat_motivational_poster.jpg?w=595
It just occurred to me that Jacinda may be in possession of occult powers…
Compare her to her husband – not a bad looking guy — then look at her…. she’s got a little donkey DNA happening there for sure….. and she’s always so miserable…. must be a nightmare to be around…. if she was hot you’d say — well she’s miserable and pouty but at least she’s hot so I guess that’s the attraction
So how did she hook up with that dude? Gotta be some kinda evil spell involved… Gotta Be.
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/newpix/2018/02/25/13/49943BBA00000578-5432699-Ms_Ardern_with_husband_Clarke_Gayford_failed_to_hide_an_initial_-m-53_1519566099876.jpg
as someone on the internet said,” if men had standards, the human race would have gone extinct. “
And Fast Eddy once said ‘If most men had IQ’s of 1000 Fast Eddy would be mediocre’
Drinking alcohol can make the coronavirus worse, the WHO says in recommending restricting access
>>>> drinking leads to irrational behaviour… might cause people to go on drunken rampages… must lock down… must submit… must not cause trouble… must hide under bed….
It also causes people to jump out of planes without a parachute, wearing only their Speedos. At least this virus has a sense of humor.
I thought you were pulling our leg, but CNBC is reporting, Drinking alcohol can make the coronavirus worse, the WHO says in recommending restricting access
Perhaps alcoholics are people we should add to our list of those more susceptible to COVID-19.
People who have been drinking excessively are also more likely to beat family members, after a lengthy quarantine and no job.
I cannot remember ever having the flu … I’ve had colds now and again but not the flu …
Anyway — I am thinking … if my body ached… I was coughing and spewing … and had a massive fever….
The last thing on my mind would be ‘I really feel like having a thrash tonight — M Fast crack open a bottle of the good stuff and get the shot glasses’
If usa close all shale oil After One week Will Attack Iran in my opinion
Marco,
Beautiful analysis. That is one of the ONLY options for the USSA clown show cartel.
Why all the actions?
Ghawar is doing a SENECA CLIFF
Into the Abyss and posters here mumble about Corona Virus…..they actually believe it is real and not the greatest distraction ever.
Shale is donkey piss. Kaput. Put a fork in it.
Ask the MIC if they can outdo Hypersonic missiles? NOPE! Can’t take down Russia and steal their Oil….maybe if they nuke em? Ask Mr. Rothschild if it is possible……
Guess who is remaining? The Zio Wet Dream itself…..IRAN…..yup you guessed it boys….
Or will it be the ASPHALT Oil in Venezuela? Trump and Pompous Ass said: Those guys are DRUG dealers down there in Venezuela…..you know with the cocaine and all that……right
You see where this is going…..
It seems like the United States has a lot of enemies as of late.
Russia…China…
The idea of the Wuhan coronavirus being a bioweapon had been relegated to a fringe conspiracy theorY IS NOW being validated by the U.S. government as it investigates whether this is true…
Iran…
not to mention domestic terrorists.
I heard that Iran has some of the missing USSR nukes. That’s why we haven’t attacked them already. They got satellites too. EMP would slow down the covid thing.
Sure going to miss that hot and cold running water.
Why use Nukes? Just develop a virus?
Anthrax worked well at getting rid of dissent towards Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Fear is unity.
Dr. Doom also foresees a conflict between Iran & USA
[youtube]EI5NRhoPstk[/youtube]
Wars have been used for a very long time to try to hide huge economic problems. They occurred with peak coal in both the UK and Germany. The same “economic pump” that isn’t working now, wasn’t working then. Hiring a lot of people for the military gave an excuse for more hiring and got more income back into the economy. But even at that, there was the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu at the time of UK peak coal and WWI.
Do you think an overreaction to a pandemic could hide huge economic problems?
It seems like everyone now think that the same governments that could barely provide their people with what they needed four months ago, is going to take care of them.
Yes, I think that an over-reaction to the pandemic could hide huge economic problems.
You make a good point saying, “It seems like everyone now think that the same governments that could barely provide their people with what they needed four months ago, is going to take care of them.”
The economic pump that makes the economy keep operating was not working well before COVID-19. Government clearly cannot take care of everyone. But maybe after the shakeout, there can be smaller, more self-sufficient areas that can continue for a while, with fewer people. I don’t know.
It’s sure a great reason to have one massive last gasp and fling many trillions of dollars at the Beast… before the Beast overruns us…..
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tSEDIxPSoRg/V6Q94t6bQDI/AAAAAAAAAcQ/enQ6N6flp1gVFr9ZDo-Nvnt-kHLOD3XFACLcB/s1600/Ghour.jpg
Shale was always a ‘Red Queen’ situation where to standstill you must run as fast as you can. Future energy supplies are going to become more and more diffuse; so too will our populations as less energy dense fuels are not able to support hyper complexity.
Now as we ‘go out’, will it be a whimper or a bang?
In addition to auto and industrial numbers tanking …. shale was looking like it was peaking in recent months pre VIRUS.
So throw that into the CDT mix….. the lights were about to go out across the board.
And BTW — anyone who has suggested that shale was not going to create Saudi-America… was called a what?
Remind me Norm … what were they called …
i said exactly that–numerous times
Because of that the don has called several times and left curses on my answering machine—but only cos i recognised his mobile number and ignored his call. (shheeessshhh—not him again)–he even forgets the time difference’
He’s sitting up in bed at at 3 am, calling me—so when I get a call at 8 am I know who it is. (I just pull up the duvet)
He swore at me—“I know you’re there you English ^xXx+++>>!!!!§§§§
When I’m emperor of the world, I’ll have you thrown in jail– Do you know who I am?” (his exact words) such language! Obama was always so polite.
I did tweet back to tell him who he was. (trying to be helpful of course) As he had obviously forgotten. (that reeeeely annoyed him.)
(people do forget, at his age) I’m known for offering a helping hand to anyone, where I live. (particularly helping young ladies to cross the road.)
try it next time he calls you—he goes ballistic if he is ignored and/or ridiculed
Though a lot of people react like that–words make excellent WMDs don’t you think?
Norman, you are a smart guy. So is Fast Eddy. Years ago another smart guy the late Jay Hanson thought about how we could mitigate the coming thermo-gene collision with the end of affordable energy and human nature wanting more and more. He thought the best thing would be to have the 10% absolutely necessary for food and energy production work while the rest stayed home and played board games, studied ancient history, and practiced birth control. Maybe some of the PTB have gotten the same idea, they aren’t idiots after all, and that is what we are seeing unfold.
I understand FE is bored in lockdown so he posts stuff about the moon landing and Greta Thunberg. Some of us find this stuff mildly entertaining. Why not let it go and let us digest the possible conspiracy theories. We are all worried about the situation and would like to know how it is going to unfold.
“. Years ago another smart guy the late Jay Hanson thought about how we could mitigate the coming thermo-gene collision with the end of affordable energy and human nature wanting more and more. He thought the best thing would be to have the 10% absolutely necessary for food and energy production work while the rest stayed home and played board games, studied ancient history, and practiced birth control. Maybe some of the PTB have gotten the same idea, they aren’t idiots after all, and that is what we are seeing unfold.”
If that’s the case, The Powers That Be would have subjected us to Universal Basic Income.
They would have made sure anyone running on a progressive ticket was a democratic socialist a.k.a. Every candidate would have to have a platform very similar to Bernie Sanders.
They had an opportunity in 2008 to make work optional as a response to the global recession that began in 2008.
They would have propped Communism even it wasn’t working.
Instead, they are propping up capitalism.
” He thought the best thing would be to have the 10% absolutely necessary for food and energy production work while the rest stayed home and played board games, studied ancient history, and practiced birth control. ”
I don’t think this arrangement could be implemented by anything but coercion. Many idiots don’t want to pursue intellectual activities that require few resources. Most people want more and more. You are describing an ascetic lifestyle that appeals to a tiny number of people.
Did he really say that – and if so why would anyone use his name and the word smart in a sentence?
People are getting paid to do nothing at the moment… sounds like communism to me.
I suppose it depends on where Saudi Araba is in their production curve. You think?
So here is an easy riddle for our 500IQ resident.
In IT what is a IDtenT error? No googling, only reasoning.
Dennis L.
Just curious I am hearing a lot that the U.S dollar is losing its value after all this and may even lose its status as reserve currency for oil. If this happens won’t the price of oil rise very high in the U.S making it difficult for their economy to ever recover and maybe having gas at the equivalent of 6 to 8 dollars a gallon?
$6-8 a gallon of gas would collapse the US. Look what happened in 2007 when gas was hitting $4-5 a gallon. The system nearly collapsed the following year. Oil producers need gas in the $6-8 range but demand would plummet like a rock because few would be able to afford it.
the problem is using it
i used to fill my tank twice a month, now my ‘consumption’ equates to about once every two months, maybe less
i think of myself as mr average, nothing out of the ordinary—but reflect me across the world, and that’s where your oil industry has gone
Perhaps “going out” will have phases. Our current going out is sort of like a whimper. But perhaps at some point it turns into a bang.
Nick Cunningham at Oil Price writes, US Drilling Grinds to a Halt at Key Shale Hotspots
It later says:
There is a new report out by members of the Harvard School of Public Health, including Lipsitch.
This is a link to the report itself: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period.
This is a link to a write-up about the article: New model looks at what might happen if SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay
If it’s like related viruses, it could cause seasonal outbreaks for years.
It seems to be quite closely related to the paper I linked to earlier. At least the results are similar. The virus keeps coming back, depending upon on long immunity lasts. If it lasts one year, we get it back every year; if it last two years, we get it back every other year. Five year immunity could give a longer cycle, unless a vaccine can be made to work. It brings up the issue that the virus might act like Dengue Fever, with one illness making subsequent illnesses worse, rather than providing immunity.
The article makes the following observation and links to another report (a preprint)
“The only answer for the states, counties and cities that want to survive is to slash budgets now — probably 30 to 50 percent — eliminate all nonessential spending and reduce taxes today. Business leaders know that, in these types of situations, the only way to save a company is to cut costs immediately. There is no other answer, and those who act first and most aggressively are the most successful in saving the company and the greatest number of its employees. In short, “fiscal distancing” — that is, separating politicians from taxpayers’ money by cutting budgets and taxes now — is literally the only useful thing that state and local governments can do to prevent further economic and social catastrophe.”
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/491503-far-worse-to-come-covid-19-collapse-of-state-and-local-governments
At a very nice strip mall not far from my home there are 8 vacancies of 19 spaces, no rental income. Three closed spaces(not vacant) are restaurant/bars, one of which is highly dependent on a swimming/ice facility across the street which is closed. Collecting rents is going to be interesting, collecting taxes is going to be a challenge.
When I worked on the UW-La Crosse Campus a “dormitory” was built directly across the street with private money. Today when I inquired if RCTC(in Rochester, MN) would be classroom or virtual the answer was basically a shrug. Cities such as La Crosse are highly dependent on RE taxes on rental properties, many who have built these student residences will go bust, RE taxes will go unpaid. For a 1960’s dorm resident and then housefellow at Madison, the current student housing is extravagant and unnecessary funded by student debt.
Virtual classrooms do not require real students, only virtual students. My virtual class is recorded, there goes the entire department of “he said, she said.” If no one uses classrooms, janitors are affected, utility companies will see decreased income as the lights have gone off, food service companies will stop serving on campus. This could be a huge financial and social impact on college campuses and the communities around them.
Will the students return? Impossible to say but the “college life experience” is gone at present and I would guess it will not soon return. Schools of “higher learning” may be in for some interesting experiences.
At yesterday’s presser The President referred multiple times to the responsibility of the states for reopening; many governors are strutting their stuff. Hmm, there will be a bill for all this and as Gail so presciently pointed out a number of times, as Federal money dries up more will be turned back to the states. If one listens carefully Trump can be heard handing much of this mess over to the states while all the time reminding them how helpful he has been; damn clever and consistent with Gail’s ideas going forward. All government officials, elected and otherwise might find this to be an opportunity or maybe a challenge, someone has to write a check.
Handing out someone else’s money is easy, collecting it prior to disbursement is a different project.
Is it possible the current predicament has maxed out the Federal CC?
The old world was wonderful, I will miss it greatly; the experience of sitting with friends over a Glenlivet in a nice hotel bar after a meeting learning, exchanging ideas and being happy was priceless.
Dennis L.
In theory, we only need online classes going forward. A single first grade, with information transmitted via internet or television country-wide. Likewise, a single second grade, transmitted nationwide.
We only need college classes relating to essential goods and services, whatever they are deemed to be. The can be broadcast countrywide, as well.
I miss the classroom, Zoom does work, not the same. MIT and Coursera have done considerable work in this area, it does tend to get boring and requires one to really push to get through the courses. Unlike virtual classrooms, they are not interactive. People do learn differently and being able to chose from a variety of teachers is nice.
If we go to some sort of testing, not unlike medical boards, etc., that will be a game changer. RE licensure is this way.
I miss interaction with people greatly, my frivolous pursuit of dancing may be essentially over for my life given my age. Wonderful people, wonderful social gatherings, dancers seem to be very nice people no matter where geographically, maybe even hip hop, don’t hop.
IMTS is in the fall, 200,000 or so of my closest friends from all over the world, probably won’t be held this year, some of the best and brightest, listening to them is a treat, as I mentioned listening afterwards over a Glenlivet is a pleasant end to a day. The problem is again people from all over the world, first thought is now, shake hands or is this a disease vector?
This disease would appear to be a pivot point and perhaps over a very short period of time. It does not seem to me we understand the disease, the social and societal consequences would seem to be both significant and unknowable.
Dennis L.
Actuarial certification in the US is outside of the university system. I am a casualty actuary. At the time I took the exams, there were ten exams. Every six months, the central organization asks for actuaries, including retired actuaries, to proctor exams in designated locations.
The exams are written by Exam Committees. They are also graded by Exam Committees. At the time I was involved, the group would gather in one location and grade exams (mostly essay exams) from morning to night for several days straight, with short breaks for meals. This was not my favorite experience! These exams would need to be scanned in, to be shared with multiple graders, in different locations, I expect.
Employers often/generally gave first-time exam-takers study time at work. At the time I took the exams, the library of the insurance company where I worked had all of the materials I needed, and I could check them out. I am sure that the material is all online today. The amount of material covered was huge, for each exam. To some extent, there were study groups within insurance companies, composed of people studying for the same exam. The system requires actuarial students to do most of the studying at home, on nights and week-ends, in addition to their regular work.
Somehow, this system “worked.” The pass ratio was set very low (about 33% passed, as I recall). So, at any time, many people are taking exams for the second or third time. Needless to say, the dropout rate is high.
I’m having a hard time keeping up with all the bankruptcies and bailouts. My financial websites I use to trade are overwhelmed with bad information. Housing data bad, retail spending dismal, airline bailouts, JCPenny and Frontier bankrupt, Empire State manufacturing worst ever, and on and on. I can’t believe the stock market is still holding its all time P/E highs during this fiasco but it looks like the Federal Reserve levitation magic act is still mostly in place.
I see that Newsom, Cuomo, and Trump look eager to start talking about how they’re going to reopen things in a few weeks. This seems like more grandstanding and posturing than anything concrete. I don’t see how they prevent another huge wave of infections, probably in a few weeks or at most a couple of months after “opening.” And then presumably hospitals will be badly overwhelmed all over again. The US has too many large urban areas sprawled out all over the place; they cannot realistically expect to halt the spread of this thing, even if we’re all wearing masks and constantly bathing ourselves in hand sanitizer. If grocery store workers are already getting sick, dying, and walking off the job, putting our very food supplies at risk, how do these people pretending to be in charge believe they’re going to simply “reopen” the economy as if it’s as easy as flicking a light switch?
Now let’s talk about consumer behavior and why the economy is probably going to keep right on collapsing. Things will NEVER go back to the normal we all knew just a couple of months ago. I don’t believe anyone will be getting back on planes or cruise ships for the rest of the year, at a bare minimum outside of strictly business trips that are required for certain professions. Discretionary spending is going to tank. People are scared and pessimistic now, which means more hoarding of money and less spending on frivolous things like loaded F150’s, going out to eat, and iGadgets. This will bankrupt and disappear the vast majority of businesses and companies as humans very quickly learn the difference between needs and wants.
I see the government continuing to throw money at the problem, which is simply delaying the inevitable at this point. Bailing out Delta and United sounds good, if everybody just magically hopped back onto planes in June, which has absolutely zero chance of happening. Now I see the banks are preparing to take over distressed oil assets because obviously that’s going to work out well. This is just turning into an absolute train wreck and so many things are breaking simultaneously, I don’t see how they’re going to be able to hold it together for too much longer. Right now I still see a total collapse happening probably this summer sometime as far as the US is concerned.
spot on…
“People are scared and pessimistic…”
yes, it’s all about essentials from now on…
ONE airline will be plenty… all the rest should be allowed to go bankrupt…
I certainly hope it provides cargo service.
That’s funny….nope, ain’t going to happen…maybe mergers, consolidations, re-regulation and downsizing of Airlines. BAU needs Airports and Airlines.
Every Airport that I’ve every worked at was expanding….more, more, more…
Tourism is big business…all the infrastructure is in place…why let it go to waste?
There WILL be a major deduction in the standard of living..for most of the population.
The well to do will continue living the Life of Riley traveling the Jet set…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gyJ9J9p3oLw
So funny 😂
Women wanting to be taken care of and men paying for female companionship, nothing new under the sea here.
‘even if we’re all wearing masks and constantly bathing ourselves in hand sanitizer.’
That’s what the people of HK are doing — the lockdown is minimal – all businesses (that aren’t bankrupt) are open – schools are closed … restaurants are open….
2 days in a row with 5 infections
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3079639/coronavirus-hong-kong-records-single-digit-count
But ya… you cannot get rid of the flu… 5 is not a real number… loads of people will still have this flu but would not have been tested….
This is an awesome tool to use for the CDT….. it’s invincible!
Why, of course,
Tax provision in coronavirus stimulus will mostly benefit wealthy: Study
Malcolm Forbes..the Golden Rule…those that own it make the rules
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/tax-provision-coronavirus-stimulus-mostly-benefit-wealthy-study-082040196–abc-news-topstories.html
One tax provision in the $2.2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package will overwhelmingly benefit wealthy Americans, according to a nonpartisan congressional analysis.
The measure allows taxpayers to use losses from certain businesses to reduce taxes owed on nonbusiness income, such as profits from investments.
Roughly 80% of the benefits of the provision will go to roughly 43,000 taxpayers who earn more than $1 million a year, according to the analysis conducted by the Joint Committee on Taxation, which was first reported by The Washington Post.
The provision reversed an element of the 2017 GOP tax law that allowed a married couple to use their first $500,000 in losses from businesses formed as pass-throughs — entities that pass profits to owners and pay taxes through the individual income tax — to offset taxes on nonbusiness income.
…..”It’s a really big deal for a really small group of wealthy people,” Matt Gardner, a senior fellow at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, told ABC News.
While business owners in various industries could benefit from the tax provision, real estate investors — including President Donald Trump — could be some of the biggest potential beneficiaries, Gardner said.
Can’t let a manufactured health crisis go to waste
EIA (wk ending 10 April)
Crude: 19.248M
Cushing: 5.724M
Gasoline: 4.914M
Distillates: 6.280M
At first when the information was coming out of China I thought wow something is going on here and it is not looking so good. Maybe this is the real deal?
As soon as Tom Hanks came out and said he had COVID-19 I realized the entire thing was a MASSIVE SCAM. Then they said Tigers at the freaking Zoo had COVID-19…..that was another giveaway as to the H O A X!
This is being utilized to implode the System and draconian measures enforced against the citizenry.
I would like to see a cross comparison of yearly deaths going back a few years for the following: pneumonia, seasonal flu, respiratory illnesses. Compare those to this years cases. Then put in COVID deaths. Let us see what the data says……this should put the H O A X to bed.
I can assure you that if you lived in Spain you wouldn’t think it’s a hoax. Another matter is the ‘stoicism’ with which you can assume the situation.
“I can assure you that if you lived in Spain you wouldn’t think it’s a hoax.”
Right, or Italy or Guayaquil, Ecuador or NY or Wuhan or any other location with people dying, and many of the recovered having permanent organ damage. Some people are even having brain damage with examples of losing the ability to speak and other weird cognitive maladies.
This virus was the brain child of a woman working in that Wuhan lab who had a dream of making a synthetic virus using bat virus as a base, adding on a segment from HIV to invade organs and the S enzyme from Sars to attach to human cells. This virus according to Chris Martenson also kills two types of T cells, which is what HIV did. It also causes blood coagulation which is another reason it damages the lungs.
What a lot of posters are not realizing is this is just the early events occurring for this virus. The stats will just continue to build over time, but I understand the impatience of youth. That it doesn’t seem to be happening fast enough. I’d say, inhale then exhale, relax, then watch this thing build into stats that will scare even the most hoax determined person into the coherence of a reality that is extremely dystopian, both medically and economically.
You must have missed Tim’s Ecuador post yesterday….
Or perhaps you did not understand it?
These people are beyond help mate. I am not even going to bother LOL
Pandemic….of Pylons!
http://blog.unhaggle.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/pylons.jpg
Oh ya?
Well in the US in 2017/18 45M people had the flu (more if you count mild cases)
That’s roughly 15% of the entire population.
Spain has 50M …. you’d need to register 7.5 people with the Wuhan flu severe enough to see a doctor….
You have what 120k?
Stop your whining…. what’s wrong with you Spanish people… a little bit of flu and you cry like little babies.
Did you hear the Americans moaning and wailing in 2017/18?
Suck it up man. Drink plenty of water… get lots of rest….. and stop moaning ‘oooh we are sick… boo hoo poor us…. this is real’
Ya it’s real. The flu is REAL. Year after year after year… century after century after century….
https://media.tenor.com/images/6bea5fcbdd1b2a55f6ab8ca0077a286a/tenor.gif
Right now the citizenry all thinks this will be over in a few weeks. The restrictions will be lifted and things will get back to normal. What happens when they find out that’s not the case, things will never get back to normal. That’s when things go from bad to worse.
i wish i was famous
then i wouldnt be at risk of catching covid 19
Norman, in our tiny corner of the internet you are a celebrity – a twinkling star in the doomer firmament.
https://blog.klm.com/assets/uploads/2012/01/18-januari-twinkling-star.jpg
i’ll believe that when i get hundreds of hysterical screaming fans throwing their knickers at me
instead of what they usually throw
“… hundreds of hysterical screaming fans throwing their knickers at me…”
I personally have found that to be overrated…
thanks for letting me know in advance, now i won’t hang around hopefully after my next TED talk
“I would like to see a cross comparison of yearly deaths…”
we just had a comment here at OFW where total UK deaths are about 900 higher this past month than in 2019, and UK C19 related deaths were reported to be about 1,000 this past month…
“Let us see what the data says…”
perhaps you missed this data… 😉
‘total UK deaths are about 900 higher this past month than in 2019, and UK C19 related deaths were reported to be about 1,000 this past month’
These are piffling numbers in a country of 67 million. And they’ve virtually closed the economy down in my country because of THIS?!
According to the Office for National Statistics, weekly deaths (against the five year average) in the UK for the week ending 3rd April are up by 6000 to 16000.
thanks, J E…
A population of 67m with average life expectancy of 80 yrs should have about 16,000 deaths per week
The 5 year average number of deaths in the UK for the three weeks ending 3rd April are 10573, 10130 and 10305 respectively. The corresponding figures this year are 10645, 11141 and 16387.
In Australia the longer you go without a bushfire to keep the fuel load low, the bigger the conflagration. Get used to the fact that the aging populations of Western countries has set up this situation. Again, we should expect about 16,000 deaths per week as a result of demographics. The low numbers from earlier years have set the stage for a vulnerable ‘petri-dish’ of victims.
Good point. When a strong wind messes up the neighborhood by blowing down thousands of trees that were old and weakened by termites or rot, or had just gotten too big to support their own weight, people will always blame the wind.
EUR USD 1.085
The Euro is on the verge of breaking down from this multi year support line.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVgLUC4WoAoxdlH?format=png&name=900×900
Why you think so? .. and today oil down again
No problem:
https://images.gscdn.nl/image/65b6e9410b_EVhJMlIWkAAqzrM.jpeg?w=600&s=e1e8b5be3b02409523b9058c6d582c2d
Those penguins are evil.
The Euro has been following the oil price.
The oil price crashed…but the Euro didn’t.
I don’t know why.
Nice thing with TA – you could always draw new lines.
(Non anglo-saxonic) music for The End of the World Party
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VT5j1CV-hQ
I know
Dawn will break across the sky
Soon you will abandon me
Don’t go to Brazil. There are too many zombies there.
LOL. Poor girl.
I love Cesária!
I listened to the great Misia singing fado to cheer myself up today – nothing like sad love songs in Portuguese for that.
I can’t hear sad music now, impossible. Only danceable tunes!
(Anyway, i dont’ like Misia, nor any fadista in fact except the great and only diva Amália Rodrigues)
Like this: