Citizens seem to be clamoring for shutdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19. There is one major difficulty, however. Once an economy has been shut down, it is extremely difficult for the economy to recover back to the level it had reached previously. In fact, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more critical the problem is likely to be. China can shut down its economy for two weeks over the Chinese New Year, each year, without much damage. But, if the outage is longer and more widespread, damaging effects are likely.
A major reason why economies around the world will have difficulty restarting is because the world economy was in very poor shape before COVID-19 hit; shutting down major parts of the economy for a time leads to even more people with low wages or without any job. It will be very difficult and time-consuming to replace the failed businesses that provided these jobs.
When an outbreak of COVID-19 hit, epidemiologists recommended social distancing approaches that seemed to be helpful back in 1918-1919. The issue, however, is that the world economy has changed. Social distancing rules have a much more adverse impact on today’s economy than on the economy of 100 years ago.
Governments that wanted to push back found themselves up against a wall of citizen expectations. A common belief, even among economists, was that any shutdown would be short, and the recovery would be V-shaped. False information (really propaganda) published by China tended to reinforce the expectation that shutdowns could truly be helpful. But if we look at the real situation, Chinese workers are finding themselves newly laid off as they attempt to return to work. This is leading to protests in the Hubei area.
My analysis indicates that now, in 2020, the world economy cannot withstand long shutdowns. One very serious problem is the fact that the prices of many commodities (including oil, copper and lithium) will fall far too low for producers, leading to disruption in supplies. Broken supply chains can be expected to lead to the loss of many products previously available. Ultimately, the world economy may be headed for collapse.
In this post, I explain some of the reasons for my concerns.
[1] An economy is a self-organizing system that can grow only under the right conditions. Removing a large number of businesses and the corresponding jobs for an extended shutdown will clearly have a detrimental effect on the economy.
Figure 1. Chart by author, using photo of building toy “Leonardo Sticks,” with notes showing a few types of elements the world economy.
An economy is a self-organizing networked system that grows, under the right circumstances. I have attempted to give an idea of how this happens in Figure 1. This is an image of a child’s building toy. The growth of an economy is somewhat like building a structure with many layers using such a toy.
The precise makeup of the economy is constantly changing. New businesses are formed, and new consumers grow up and take jobs. Governments enact laws, partly to collect taxes, and partly to ensure fair treatment of all. Consumers decide which products to buy based on a combination of factors, including their level of wages, the prices being charged for the available goods, the availability of debt, and the interest rate on that debt. Resources of various kinds are used in producing goods and services.
At the same time, some deletions are taking place. Big businesses buy smaller businesses; some customers die or move away. Products that become obsolete are discontinued. The inside of the dome becomes hollow from the deletions.
If a large number of businesses are closed for an extended period, this will have many adverse impacts on the economy:
- Fewer goods and services, in total, will be made for the economy during the period of the shutdown.
- Many workers will be laid off, either temporarily or permanently. Goods and services will suddenly be less affordable for these former workers. Many will fall behind on their rent and other obligations.
- The laid off workers will be unable to pay much in taxes. In the US, state and local governments will need to cut back the size of their programs to match lower revenue because they cannot borrow to offset the deficit.
- If fewer goods and services are made, demand for commodities will fall. This will push the prices of commodities, such as oil and copper, very low.
- Commodity producers, airlines and the travel industry are likely to head toward permanent contraction, further adding to layoffs.
- Broken supply lines become problems. For example:
- A lack of parts from China has led to the closing of many automobile factories around the world.
- There is not enough cargo capacity on airplanes because much cargo was carried on passenger flights previously, and passenger flights have been cut back.
These adverse impacts become increasingly destabilizing for the economy, the longer the shutdowns go on. It is as if a huge number of deletions are made simultaneously in Figure 1. Temporary margins, such as storage of spare parts in warehouses, can provide only a temporary buffer. The remaining portions of the economy become less and less able to support themselves. If the economy was already in poor shape, the economy may collapse.
[2] The world economy was approaching resource limits even before the coronavirus epidemic appeared. This is not too different a situation than many earlier economies faced before they collapsed. Coronavirus pushes the world economy further toward collapse.
Reaching resource limits is sometimes described as, “The population outgrew the carrying capacity of the land.” The group of people living in the area could not grow enough food and firewood using the resources available at the time (such as arable land, energy from the sun, draft animals, and technology of the day) for their expanding populations.
Collapses have been studied by many researchers. The book Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyze eight agricultural economies that collapsed. Figure 2 is a chart I prepared, based on my analysis of the economies described in that book:
Figure 2. Chart by author based on Turchin and Nefedov’s Secular Cycles.
Economies tend to grow for many years before the population becomes high enough that the carrying capacity of the land they occupy is approached. Once the carrying capacity is hit, they enter a stagflation stage, during which population and GDP growth slow. Growing debt becomes an issue, as do both wage and wealth disparity.
Eventually, a crisis period is reached. The problems of the stagflation period become worse (wage and wealth disparity; need for debt by those with inadequate income) during the crisis period. Changes tend to take place during the crisis period that lead to substantial drops in GDP and population. For example, we read about some economies entering into wars during the crisis period in the attempt to gain more land and other resources. We also read about economies being attacked from outside in their weakened state.
Also, during the crisis period, with the high level of wage and wealth disparity, it becomes increasingly difficult for governments to collect enough taxes. This problem can lead to governments being overthrown because of unhappiness with high taxes and wage disparity. In some cases, as in the 1991 collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, the top level government simply collapses, leaving the next lower level of government.
Strangely enough, epidemics also seem to occur within collapse periods. The rising population leads to people living closer to each other, increasing the risk of transmission. People with low wages often find it increasingly difficult to eat an adequate diet. As a result, their immune systems easily succumb to new communicable diseases. Part of the collapse process is often the loss of a significant share of the population to a communicable disease.
Looking back at Figure 2, I believe that the current economic cycle started with the use of fossil fuels back in the 1800s. The world economy hit the stagflation period in the 1970s, when oil supply first became constrained. The Great Recession of 2008-2009 seems to be a marker for the beginning of the crisis period in the current cycle. If I am right in this assessment, the world economy is in the period in which we should expect crises, such as pandemics or wars, to occur.
The world was already pushing up against resource limits before all of the shutdowns took place. The shutdowns can be expected to push the world economy toward a more rapid decline in output per capita. They also appear to increase the likelihood that citizens will try to overthrow their governments, once the quarantine restrictions are removed.
[3] The carrying capacity of the world today is augmented by the world’s energy supply. A major issue since 2014 is that oil prices have been too low for oil producers. The coronavirus problem is pushing oil prices even lower yet.
Strangely enough, the world economy is facing a resource shortage problem, but it manifests itself as low commodity prices and excessive wage and wealth disparity.
Most economists have not figured out that economies are, in physics terms, dissipative structures. These are self-organizing systems that grow, at least for a time. Hurricanes (powered by energy from warm water) and ecosystems (powered by sunlight) are other examples of dissipative structures. Humans are dissipative structures, as well; we are powered by the energy content of foods. Economies require energy for all of the processes that we associate with generating GDP, such as refining metals and transporting goods. Electricity is a form of energy.
Energy can be used to work around shortages of almost any kind of resource. For example, if fresh water is a problem, energy products can be used to build desalination plants. If lack of phosphate rocks is an issue for adequate fertilization, energy products can be used to extract these rocks from less accessible locations. If pollution is a problem, fossil fuels can be used to build so-called renewable energy devices such as wind turbines and solar panels, to try to reduce future CO2 pollution.
The growth in energy consumption correlates quite well with the growth of the world economy. In fact, increases in energy consumption seem to precede growth in GDP, suggesting that it is energy consumption growth that allows the growth of GDP.
Figure 3. World GDP Growth versus Energy Consumption Growth, based on data of 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy and GDP data in 2010$ amounts, from the World Bank.
The thing that economists tend to miss is the fact that extracting enough fossil fuels (or commodities of any type) is a two-sided price problem. Prices must be both:
- High enough for companies extracting the resources to make an after tax profit.
- Low enough for consumers to afford finished goods made with these resources.
Most economists believe that an inadequate supply of energy products will be marked by high prices. In fact, the situation seems to be almost “upside down” in a networked economy. Inadequate energy supplies seem to be marked by excessive wage and wealth disparity. This wage and wealth disparity leads to commodity prices that are too low for producers. Current WTI oil prices are about $20 per barrel, for example (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate oil, based on EIA data.
The low-price commodity price issue is really an affordability problem. The many people with low wages cannot afford goods such as cars, homes with heating and air conditioning, and vacation travel. In fact, they may even have difficulty affording food. Spending by rich people does not make up for the shortfall in spending by the poor because the rich tend to spend their wealth differently. They tend to buy services such as tax planning and expensive private college educations for their children. These services require proportionately less commodity use than goods purchased by the poor.
The problem of low commodity prices becomes especially acute in countries that produce commodities for export. Producers find it difficult to pay workers adequate wages to live on. Also, governments are not able to collect enough taxes for the services workers expect, such as public transit. The combination is likely to lead to protests by citizens whenever the opportunity arises. Once shutdowns end, these countries are especially in danger of having their governments overthrown.
[4] There are limits to what governments and central banks can fix.
Governments can give citizens checks so that they have enough funds to buy groceries. This may, indeed, keep the price of food products high enough for food producers. There may still be problems with broken supply lines, so there may still be shortages of some products. For example, if there are eggs but no egg cartons, there may be no eggs for sale in grocery stores.
Central banks can act as buyers for many kinds of assets such as bonds and even shares of stock. In this way, they can perhaps keep stock market prices reasonably high. If enough gimmicks are used, perhaps they can even keep the prices of homes and farms reasonably high.
Central banks can also keep interest rates paid by governments low. In fact, interest rates can even be negative, especially for the short term. Businesses whose profitability has been reduced and workers who have been laid off are likely to discover that their credit ratings have been downgraded. This is likely to lead to higher interest costs for these borrowers, even if interest rates for the most creditworthy are kept low.
One area where governments and central banks seem to be fairly helpless is with respect to low prices for commodities used by industry, such as oil, natural gas, coal, copper and lithium. These commodities are traded internationally, so it is not just their own producers that need to be propped up; the market intervention needs to affect the entire world market.
One approach to raising world commodity prices would be to buy up large quantities of the commodities and store them somewhere. This is impractical, because no one has adequate storage for the huge quantities involved.
Another approach for raising world commodity prices would be to try to raise worldwide demand for finished goods and services. (Making more finished goods and services will use more commodities, and thus will tend to raise commodity prices.) To do this, checks would somehow need to go to the many poor people in the world, including those in India, Bangladesh and Nigeria, allowing these people to buy cars, homes, and other finished goods. Sending out checks only to people in one’s own economy would not be sufficient. It is unlikely that the US or the European Union would undertake a task such as this.
A major problem after many people have been out of work for a quite a while is the fact that many of these people will be behind on their regular payments, such as rent and car payments. They will be in no mood to buy a new vehicle or a new cell phone, simply because they have been offered a check that covers groceries and not much more. They will remain in a mode of cutting back on purchases, not adding more. Demand for most kinds of goods will remain low.
This lack of demand will make it difficult for business to have enough sales to make it profitable to reopen at the level of output that they had previously. Thus, employment and sales are likely to remain depressed even after the economy seems to be reopening. China seems to be having this problem. The Wall Street Journal reports China Is Open for Business, but the Postcoronavirus Reboot Looks Slow and Rocky. It also reports, Another Shortage in China’s Virus-Hit Economy: Jobs for College Grads.
[5] There is a significant likelihood that the COVID-19 problem is not going away, even if economies can “bend the trend line” with respect to new cases.
Bending the trend line has to do with trying to keep hospitals and medical providers from being overwhelmed. It is likely to mean that herd immunity is built up slowly, making repeat outbreaks more likely. Thus, if social isolation is stopped, COVID-19 illnesses can be expected to revisit prior locations. We know that this has been an issue in the past. The Spanish Flu epidemic came in three waves, over the years 1918-1919. The second wave was the most deadly.
A recent study by members of the Harvard School of Public Health says that the COVID-19 epidemic may appear in waves until into 2022. In fact, it could be back on a seasonal basis thereafter. It also indicates that more than one period of social distancing is likely to be required:
“A single period of social distancing will not be sufficient to prevent critical care capacities from being overwhelmed by the COVID-19 epidemic, because under any scenario considered it leaves enough of the population susceptible that a rebound in transmission after the end of the period will lead to an epidemic that exceeds this capacity.”
Thus, even if the COVID-19 problem seems to be fixed in a few weeks, it likely will be back again within a few months. With this level of uncertainty, businesses will not be willing to set up new operations. They will not hire many additional employees. The retired population will not run out and buy more tickets on cruise ships for next year. In fact, citizens are likely to continue to be worried about airplane flights being a place for transmitting illnesses, making the longer term prospects for the airline industry less optimistic.
Conclusion
The economy was already near the edge before COVID-19 hit. Wage and wealth disparity were big problems. Local populations of many areas objected to immigrants, fearing that the added population would reduce job opportunities for people who already lived there, among other things. As a result, many areas were experiencing protests because of unhappiness with the current economic situation.
The shutdowns temporarily cut back the protests, but they certainly do not fix the underlying situations. Instead, the shutdowns add to the number of people with very low wages or no income at all. The shutdowns also reduce the total quantity of goods and services available to purchase, regardless of how much money is added to the system. Many people will end up poorer, in some real sense.
As soon as the shutdowns end, it will be obvious that the world economy is in worse condition than it was before the shutdown. The longer the shutdowns last, the worse shape the world economy will be in. Thus, when businesses are restarted, we can expect even more protests and more divisive politics. Some governments may be overthrown, or they may collapse without being pushed. I fear that the world economy will be further down the road toward overall collapse.
“Booms help fraudsters paper over cracks in their accounts, from fictitious investment returns to exaggerated sales. Slowdowns rip the covering off. As Baruch Lev, an accounting professor at New York University, puts it, “In good times everyone looks good, and the market punishes you harshly for not keeping up.” Many big book-cooking scandals of the past 20 years emerged in downturns…
“As Warren Buffett, a revered investor, once put it: “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.”
“This time, thanks to a pandemic, the water has whooshed away at record speed.
“Much of the swimwear was already threadbare: a borrowing binge has strained many corporate balance-sheets. Some dirty secrets are beginning to come out…”
https://www.economist.com/business/2020/04/18/the-economic-crisis-will-expose-a-decades-worth-of-corporate-fraud
“”The founder and director of top Singapore oil-trading company Hin Leong Trading Pte Ltd directed the firm not to disclose hundreds of millions of dollars in losses over several years…
“Despite reporting net profit of $78.2 million for the business year ended in October, “HLT has not been making profits in the last few years,” Lim said in the filing, which has not been made public.
“The company “suffered about US$800 million in futures losses over the years but these were not reflected in the financial statements,” he said.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-singapore-oil-hinleong-exclusive/exclusive-head-of-oil-trader-hin-leong-didnt-disclose-800-million-losses-court-filing-idUSKBN2210EK
It is not just fraud. It is optimistic views that provided in non-GAAP adjustments.
I found an interesting article:
Coastal fish populations didn’t crash after the Deepwater Horizon spill – why not?
No wonder modelers have a terrible time figuring out what will happen over the longer term.
The British government wanted to achieve herd immunity. They didn’t want to do a lockdown, but felt forced to do it because of media and popular pressure.
WHO warns that there’s no evidence of immunity against Sars-Cov-2.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-no-evidence-that-covid-19-survivors-have-immunity-who-warns-11975011
There’s a real possibility that governments have no clue what they are doing and have very limited knowledge about the virus.
It’s almost like they are making decisions based on…anecedotes.
otherwise known as SOCIAL SCIENCE.
https://www.jpost.com/International/Coronavirus-travels-13-feet-in-the-air-new-study-finds-624377
https://www.ids.ac.uk/opinions/covid-19-the-social-science-lessons-we-need-to-learn-from-wuhan/
“Opinions” are now science.
Science is now click-bait.
Science is now “gossip”.
I witnessed a discussion about science between two adult women. They were your typical college educated white women. They referenced the recent Spider-verse movie
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4633694/
as proof that multiverses are a “thing.”
This is an anecdote, but it does reflect how science is treated by the media and now, apparently, by elected officials and actual experts on science.
“Opinions” are now science.
Science is now click-bait.
Science is now “gossip”
see
https://www.iflscience.com/
and just about every single mainstream science-related news provider.
They’re all like
https://www.iflscience.com/
https://www.technologyreview.com/
I haven’t read the Technology Review article, but I can bet it misses the point that you would need to test everyone, repeatedly, perhaps twice a week. There are many costs associated with this. We don’t know enough about immunity, and lasting immunity. It doesn’t seem to stick, even after you have had the virus. The virus keeps circulating, regardless of how many test you do. It can even hide in cats and other animals.
Gail, I trust your evaluation abilities so going with “keeps circulating”. Maybe it is time to return to the walled city. Say gated communities of 1000 or less. Each with no entry no exist without exam and quarantine. Each with constant monitoring of the community. Everyone’s test status visible to all on line. Anyone who test positive into quarantine or exile from community. Their choice.
i REALLY hope your post is satire.
For your sake.
so you can kiss tourists and tourism goodbye, along with the chunk of GDP they generate. thanks, Wuhan.
Somehow, the walled communities would have to deal with the need for dealing with food and waste, so even this wouldn’t work. We simply have to live with it; we have no other choice. We may have to change how we do things a lot. Mothers may have to teach their children at home, for example. Food may need to be locally grown. Computers and electricity may become things of the past.
There were competing “expertly” narratives from the beginning, notably UK+Germany+few of the Scandinavians opted for quick herd immunity build up, lets infect all ASAP, no masks, open borders, flights not canceled. Other countries followed different advice and prepared individual mix of hard/soft policies. It’s still very early to evaluate overall impact as further waves are expected to wash over us.. But seeing some sporty people under 40-50yrs old getting “very bad flue” response out of it, i.e. likely lasting damage to their bodies is not fun. Even the most treacherous lab bug will surely mutate out in natural environment as the time goes by, it could be either in the more docile-fizzling out direction, aggressive spike up or with returning properties. Now, the bummer is the process (unknown duration) could last months, years, decades or centuries..
In that case, Mr. World, you should get used to staying inside your micropod apartment.
Your nourishment will be provided to you by drones . If you work from home, keep doing that, and if you aren’t working, you can go on the dole.
https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/TcRfO8YCLncyNOsIRyYTfpc7WTU=/1200×800/media/img/photo/2017/05/the-coffin-homes-of-hong-kong/h06_AP17127167049000/original.jpg
Gail is kind enough to allow us musical interludes to add a little entertainment amidst the high seriousness. I’m wondering now what sort of music Gail likes. Does she enjoy yodeling Norwegian military marches while pining for the fjords? Or does she enjoy the music that was around during her student days?
Anyway, let’s have a quiz whereby the regulars try to guess the music Gail likes. I’ll go for Simon and Garfunkel: ‘I’d rather be a hammer than a Leonardo stick’. 😉 Or more seriously, perhaps ‘Bridge over troubled water”, because it has a spiritual feel, and we know that Gail is somewhat religious .
Another one from that era:
The Mamas & The Papas – California Dreamin’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-aK6JnyFmk
———-
Not to my my taste, I must admit, and who knows, Gail may not even be particularly interested in music – some people aren’t.
I do like “Bridge over troubled water” and other things as well. But I tend not to have music playing in the background. It keeps me from focusing as well.
That song is so famous, as soon as I typed ‘bridge’ in YouTube, up it came at the top of the list.
Thank you. In my estimation, the best song they ever wrote.
Could be, Robert. Most of S&G’s best songs were songs they never wrote.
https://www.facebook.com/1531582377172216/posts/2465046960492415/
Low prices are not good!!
““I hate to say it but the whole of the North Sea has gone into meltdown again,” said Bob Buskie, chief executive of the Port of Cromarty Firth. “Once the price drops to where it is now . . . basically the place just goes into shutdown.””
https://dnyuz.com/2020/04/19/idle-north-sea-oil-rigs-point-to-fresh-crisis/
“…the business model for many exploration and production companies was broken before oil prices fell. Fuelled by cheap credit, US shale producers borrowed heavily to invest in drilling, causing the US energy bond market to triple in size over the past decade.
“The focus has been on producing quantity to conquer market share and the flood of oil has yielded low returns for equity investors, as frackers reinvested windfalls and raised top executive pay. US fracking pioneer Chesapeake Energy, for example, hasn’t generated a single year of positive free cash flow in the past decade. As debts rose along with oil supplies, a shakeout was inevitable.
“A bailout would throw good money after bad… A series of defaults would hurt, but it would not alone bring down the big banks.
“Of course the government should offer support for energy workers facing inevitable lay-offs, along with all the other Americans losing their jobs in the crisis. But while many companies closed by coronavirus were healthy businesses beforehand, many in the oil industry were already on a path to failure. This is no time to create zombies.”
https://www.ft.com/content/4a6494e2-7fbe-11ea-b0fb-13524ae1056b
“Mexico’s state oil company has become the world’s largest “fallen angel,” a borrower whose credit rating is downgraded from investment to junk.”
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/moodys-is-second-ratings-agency-to-downgrade-pemex/
Mexico’s production is way down. It imports finished products from the US.
Of course, the North Sea is very important to Europe. It is not possible to live on wind and solar alone.
That’s why the proxy oil war in Libya (ClubMed area) is getting hotter each day as of recently.. Basically EU allowed (supports) jihadi deployment under the Turkish command there, no real blockade of supplies or incoming soldiers taking place. It’s all about the “spice” which must flow..
OK, Preppers,…here’s the deal with our comrades..
The Motley Fool
Here’s What Russians Hoarded When the Lockdown Began
Andrey Biryukov
BloombergApril 19, 2020, 2:00 AM EDT
Here’s What Russians Hoarded When the Lockdown Began
(Bloomberg) — While consumers around the globe were hoarding toilet paper last month ahead of a wave of government-imposed lockdowns, Russians were stockpiling cash.
About 1 trillion rubles ($13.6 billion) has been issued from cash machines and bank branches since the beginning of March, more than during the whole of last year, central bank data show.
“People were afraid that banks will be unavailable during the quarantine,” said Denis Poryvay, an analyst at Raiffeisenbank in Moscow. “They withdrew money for the same reason as people hoarded food.”
Daily spikes in withdrawals coincide with President Vladimir Putin’s regular televised briefings outlining measures being taken to fight the coronavirus. There was a spike in money being taken out after Putin announced a tax on bank deposits of over 1 million rubles, and more cash was hoarded after he extended self-isolation measures until at least May.
Demand also surged in mid-March for basic groceries such as buckwheat and canned meat, retailers said.
How about the Vodka?
“Putin announced a tax on bank deposits of over 1 million rubles”
I wonder whether this tax affected deposits intended for payrolls for workers. If it did, it would be a real problem. Even if it didn’t, I am sure it is still a problem for those with big bank accounts.
Gail, my Sister and I are doing the utmost to keeping her away from either one!
Her Doctor chuckled in a good way on her tuffness.
Yes, there have been reports of such (near) centennials that have managed not to have been killed off by this virus
Channel 10 News station report..
CORAL SPRINGS, Fla. – A 97-year-old woman has returned to her home after recovering from COVID-19.
Jean Boccard thought she had experienced it all.
“I had some days where I was very sleepy and very tired, but outside of that, I was my normal self,” she said.
But about two weeks ago, things took a turn for the beloved grandmother when she was found on the floor of her Coral Springs home.
Her caretaker called 9-1-1 and then called her son, Vincent.
“When I pulled up to the house and rescue was taking her out the front door, I said ‘I think this is it, I think mom is on her way out,’ said Vincent. “She looked horrible, absolutely horrible.”
Only after Jean was admitted to Broward Health Coral Springs was she tested for COVID-19, with the results coming back positive.
“When they told me I had the virus, I go, ‘What virus?'” she said.
Jean had pneumonia, as well as underlying conditions, heart disease and diabetes, which meant the odds of survival were slim to none for someone her age.
“It was very difficult during that time because we were not allowed to see her in the hospital,” said Vincent.
But after nine days, Jean fought off the virus and the symptoms. She was released from the hospital a few days ago after receiving a clean bill of health from doctors.
“They were amazed at my age that I could have something like this and respond so well,” Jean said.
Suppose life is kinda unfair in the sense of living and dying….
As you pointed out, some will live as others will not….
One of the questions I have if I’m at the Pearly Gates….
On related note in terms of food internationally, there are “crazy never seen before” price ratio spikes and strange gyrations, e.g. now ~decent pork meat is at 1:4 vs ~decent canned pork meat brand (manuf. date pre Wuhan thing). Most likely, the over stocked wholesale with no outflow to usual client base is starting to flood the retail sector.. Obviously, it may vary in your locale or comparing apples to oranges: shitzy quality meat to better quality products, so pls. don’t reply “..no no my Chinese pork dog food costs only few cents..” stories..
In terms of Russia, people are likely reacting to previous type of crisis, experience..
Also, the state strategic reserves are full of food (for weeks-months) which is not the case in most of W countries (days at best), so why hoard it.
True story.
Mother, almost 98 years old lives with me and on ,April 1st had visit with Doctor due to set cough, and bad day the day before, muscle weakness and sick, no fever. Her Doctor prescribed an antibiotic for lung infection, and instructed her to rest, lots of fluids and soups.
So, as a precaution because of this China virus set up an appointment to test her, which was on April 10th.
On the 13th, received a call she test results were POSITIVE!
Immediately, who!e family quarantine….no work for 14 days.
Anyway, @98year old seems to be recovering hopefully …
Appetite and plenty of fluids, rest and love.
Never know with this virus and have to be on guard!
Health Dept has called several times to check in as well as her Doctor.
Want her to be retested….I was not because assumed I gave it to her.
I did not have any symptoms at all. Go figure.
So, thankfully, we will escape this virus. However, Mother resting is a setback with lockdown.Cant take her out to park with her pet lapdog, Cricket, and because of the virus and bed rest seems weaker. The lockdown is still in force. Good news, yesterday she was well enough to go in the car with Cricket for a drive and stop at open park at Church, which is closed…..
Strange Days
I looked at the State of Minnesota website a while back. It listed the age of all range of active COVID cases and the age range of hospitalized COVID cases. If I was reading the site correctly, there was someone who was 104 with COVID who was not hospitalized. I suppose she (or he) could be either at home or in some sort of senior care center.
“The crisis that’s gripping New England’s fishing communities is playing out in coastal areas from Alaska to California and the Gulf of Mexico as the coronavirus pandemic disrupts domestic and international supply chains and seafood consumption plummets.
“At least 90 percent of the seafood eaten in the U.S. is imported—and much of what we catch is sent overseas. The domestic market in the U.S. relies heavily on the hospitality industry; before the pandemic, two-thirds of seafood in the U.S. was eaten in restaurants and hotels.
“Wholesalers, fishermen’s associations, and fishermen themselves are struggling to find new avenues and methods to sell U.S.-caught fish — which tends to retail for considerably more than its imported counterpart — and keep boats in the water, fearful that the pandemic might forever alter how people eat fish.”
https://www.salon.com/2020/04/18/coronavirus-strikes-at-already-struggling-fishermen-and-shaky-seafood-supply-chains_partner/
Interesting! I can’t imagine that the restaurant take-out industry is selling as much fish as the sit-down restaurants did previously, either.
Interesting, seems the lock down targeted hub frivolities of consumption the most:
restaurants (meat, fish), shopping malls (crap merchandise & socialized entertainment), carz (energy and infrastructure upkeep), vacation resorts (not needed in lasting unemployment), ..
How convenient “for de-growth / de-layering” visions or plans.
Yes, the rolls of fat and pork needs to go.
Mankind’s consumerism no longer serves a purpose.
“Even after China’s internal lockdowns are lifted, some makers of electronic parts remain cut off from a vital resource for expanding production: international talent.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-trends/China-s-factories-struggle-without-key-import-foreign-talent
I hadn’t thought about international talent being important!
If you are good at something – never do it for free.
“Unrest has spread across Africa, with riots over food shortages and an army being deployed to ‘restore order’ as the coronavirus crisis rocks the continent.
“Protests have erupted in Cape Town, the military have been mobilised in Lesotho and the chief of staff to the Nigerian government died of the lethal bug.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8232649/Virus-triggers-unrest-Africa-Riots-break-Johannesburg-food-shortages.html
“During the COVID-19 crisis, [African] food supply chains were initially disrupted by the closure of borders. This is a worry for low-income countries, which are much more dependent on food imports.
“Next came bans on public and private transportation inside countries, threatening the supply of food to cities. The bans also threaten supply chains of imported food via cities to rural areas.”
https://theprint.in/world/african-cities-are-struggling-with-food-supply-chain-in-coronavirus-lockdowns/403795/
Not enough food for people, especially poor people, should be the big concern.
“Facing what the International Monetary Fund says is a crisis like no other, policy makers from leading economies agreed this past week on a set of initiatives to help emerging markets and poor nations weather the coronavirus shock, including a path-breaking halt on debt payments.
“But critics faulted the Group of 20 for failing to adopt for the rest of the world the all-out approach they’ve embraced to help their own countries.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/guardians-global-economy-come-short-110000429.html
“…the problem is that the EU failed to act collectively at the moment when countries such as Italy badly needed a display of togetherness. Throughout, there has been a lack of co-ordination: countries imposed their own restrictions, imposed their own border controls, and banned the export of much-needed medical supplies.
“Italy received speedier help from China than from its EU partners, and, not surprisingly, that has left a sour taste. Opposition to the EU in Italy has never been higher.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/european-union-italy-unity-failure-debt-germany-netherlands
“Commercial property researchers at Green Street Advisors told clients this weekend that strip mall landlords have been paid only between 30 per cent and 50 per cent of rents due in April.”
https://www.ft.com/content/4fbbfedd-fbb4-4306-8cec-77c3c46adc3a
“As of April 13, over 38% of restaurants said they have closed temporarily or potentially permanently with over 77% of respondents reporting they have seen at least a 50% reduction in sales.”
https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/sales-at-over-77-of-restaurants-have-declined-by-50/576263/?fbclid=IwAR25EaGtrrca6P0ST3MNhYOTvHmXqlglfKWau3InHZoiHznvfl1cGmi8Mz4
“Much of the $350 billion in the Small Business Administration’s emergency coronavirus relief fund was effectively spoken for within the first minutes of launch, according to senior banking executives.”
“”We didn’t even get through the first five minutes of applications,” a JPMorgan Chase senior banking executive said.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/small-business-loan-program-ran-out-money-within-minutes-some-n1187051
How does this end well?
Had a question for my Westpac contacts – this came back when I emailed both of them… both of them no doubt have all their fingers and toes jammed into the dam and they are hooked up to feeding tubes because they can’t spare a hand to hold a fork….
It must be very chaotic and stressful when your entire client base owes you many billions of dollars — and they have ZERO revenue… and are telling you sorry mate — can’t pay you … fack off….
But but we have this interest only option — let me explain how it works….. fack off… how about if we forgive all payments for two months then we amortize that amount over the next year? fack off… over the next 5 years… fack off… fack off fack off… how about you get Jacinda to UNLOCK the country before you end bankrupt like me — now FACK OFF.
I suspect there are similar discussions going on in a few other countries….
Thanks for your email. I am currently not checking my personal emails due to dealing with customers who are financially affected by Covid-19.
Please re-direct your email to smallbusiness@westpac.co.nz who will assign your request in order of priority.
To all our customers, stay safe. We’re here to help & we appreciate your patience during this time.
Covid-19: We’re here to help. Visit our website for more information, click here.
“Across the developing world, the pandemic is causing a devastating economic crisis — even in countries where the disease has barely arrived yet. Economies are being battered by collapsing revenues from oil and tourism and sudden capital outflows.
“The IMF, which has warned about the steepest recession since the 1930s, has already received requests for emergency support from more than 100 countries. While developed nations are throwing money at their slumping economies and struggling health systems, even many of the richest emerging markets lack the resources to act in the same manner.
“For Brazil, the pandemic is a double blow. The economy was already in a parlous state, having yet to recover from a sharp recession in 2015-16. Its public finances were under heavy pressure even before the pandemic; mounting a fiscal response to the decline in the demand will create even greater strain…
“The Brazilian real was already under pressure at the start of the year as a result of the weak pace of recovery and a steady drop in Brazilian interest rates. As global markets woke up to the threat of coronavirus in late January, a moderate sell-off in the real turned into a rout. The currency has lost more than a quarter of its dollar value this year…
“Stocks on the São Paulo exchange lost almost half of their value between late February and late March, recently recovering some ground. Even large, well capitalised companies with huge cash buffers such as oil group Petrobras and mining company Vale saw their long-dated foreign currency bonds lose 30 to 40 cents on the dollar — at any other time, a signal of impending debt restructuring or default.
“It happened so quickly,” says Roger Horn, senior emerging markets bond analyst at SMBC Nikko, a New York broker. “People weren’t thinking about recovery value; this was priced to panic.”
“Emerging economies are also entering this new crisis against the backdrop of sharply higher levels of debt. Over the decade to the end of 2019, according to data collated by the IIF, the total debts of the 30 largest emerging markets rose from $28tn to $71tn, or from 168 per cent of GDP to 220 per cent.
“Government debt also rose strongly in some economies, up from 65 per cent of GDP in Brazil to 89 per cent in the last decade, and doubling in South Africa from 32 per cent of GDP to 64 per cent.
“As GDP contracts and the amount of debt rises in response to the coronavirus crisis, those ratios are likely to increase. The IIF says South Africa’s government debt could soon rise to an unsustainable 95 per cent of GDP.
““What we’ve been saying consistently is that, yes, the debt is manageable now, with these interest rates at this level of risk appetite,” says Sonja Gibbs, head of sustainable finance at the IIF. “But under other circumstances it won’t be. We are now in other circumstances.””
https://www.ft.com/content/3d113fba-8096-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99a
“Several emerging market central banks are embarking on a radical new experiment — buying bonds in a manner similar to the quantitative easing programs first started in the U.S., Europe and Japan.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-even-emerging-markets-are-joining-the-qe-party-2020-04-17
Can this work???
How about I issue a FE Somalia Bond…. 10 billion…. yield of 2% (because as we know from the Greece example the more broke you are the lower the coupon rate)…… it’s generally a good idea to be running a massive deficit making it very difficult to service the debt…. so let me see if I can buy a private jet and a yacht…. I’ll just jump online and make that happen…
Ok there … theoretically it works…. the problem is my Westpac contacts who I was actually trying to contact about this scheme/scam… are too busy frying other fish…. let me drop an email to a couple mates who are the investment banking side of things …
Yes they might laugh initially but when I point out that Somalia and Guinea Bissau are running the same scheme…. they may change their tunes and see magnificent placement fees….. and big bonuses…
Gail – I can float an OFW bond idea to them if you want…
Norm — maybe you could raise some coin as well and hire someone to write another ‘hit’ for you?
This all becomes rather ridiculous, doesn’t it?
This goes on for a while, debt gets downgraded, and Brazil is in even worse shape!
Read through what small businesses are facing and their collapse. The longer it drags, the more ripe it is for social unrest.
https://dumbwealth.com/true-stories-from-the-covid-19-front-lines-small-business-collapse/
People are not terribly worried, because they assume business will quickly go back to normal.
Reports by Dr Chris Smith naked scientist points out the virus can take a month to develop into influenza
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018743157/chris-smith-virologist-on-latest-covid-19-science
I listened to part of the interview.
I didn’t find where Chris Smith said the virus can take a month to develop into influenza. Where do you find it in the 25 minute interview?
Shocking Report Shows Half The Homeless At Boston Shelter Tested Positive For COVID-19: And None Had Symptoms
If most people don’t have symptoms then …. hurrah … no need to close the economy…
http://krapps.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/LadyHuhFINAL.jpg
This seems to be a link to the article:
https://www.davidstockmanscontracorner.com/shocking-report-shows-half-the-homeless-at-boston-shelter-tested-positive-for-covid-19-and-none-had-symptoms/
Reminber
A theory put forward by French professor Luc Montagnier — award-winning co-discoverer of the AIDS virus but also mocked by some colleagues for some outrageous theories — has sparked a scientific firestorm.
According to the Nobel Prize winner in Medicine, a man used to controversy, the SARS-CoV-2 virus is the result of an attempt to manufacture a vaccine against the AIDS virus, Agence France Presse reported.
Montagnier says the presence of elements of HIV in the genome of the new virus and even elements of the “germ of malaria” are highly suspect, the report said. Interviewed on the French CNews channel, he said the characteristics of the new coronavirus could not have arisen naturally.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/french-prof-sparks-furor-with-lab-leak-theory/
(a key part of the CDP)
The fact that Professor Luc Montagnier is co-discoverer of the AIDS virus gives some credibly of the idea. Those of us who are not experts in this area don’t understand what combinations of sequences can really be expected in natural viruses.
https://www.breitbart.com/border/2020/04/18/mexico-sees-10-percent-rise-in-one-day-of-coronavirus-fatalities/
yesterday deaths from 486 to 546… up about 10%…
the Mexico City surge is coming soon…
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Mexico 7,500 cases so up about 10% in a single day…
today deaths from 546 to 650… up about 20%…
surge…
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/04/18/uk-could-face-up-to-six-waves-of-chinese-coronavirus-in-the-next-year/
wave after wave after wave…
“… Britain will likely see the highest death rate in Europe and that over the next year the country could face as many as six further waves of Covid-19 outbreaks.
“We all hope that the national lockdown and social distancing will bring about a large suppression of the epidemic; however, we are going to face further waves,”…”
it’s almost as if…
the virus can’t be stopped…
It is something we have to work around.
Ooooohhh… this gets filed in the WGAS file…. Right alongside of the ‘half the hobos tested + without symptoms’…
Well – if nobody is showing symptoms — and of those who do have very mild symptoms — then yeeee hawwww END THE LOCKDOWN!!!
And if there is going to be wave after wave after wave of this — then why are we locking down at all — the second we lift the lockdowns we get another wave!!!!! Obviously we cannot keep locking unlocking locking unlocking locking the global economy down.
None of the above occurs to those who are sucking on the MSM teat… the automatons who believe this is ‘the new plague’ …. who believe every lie…. um utterance that they see on the evening news….
BTW – was out for a walk yesterday with M Fast and the two munchkins…. ran into a couple of neighbours on the way back… yadda yadda yadda this and that…
I’m like we need to get out of this lockdown or I am going to go to the cinema with my AK47 and open fire… she looks at me like WTF… oh just kidding just kidding the cinema is closed!!! … (and clearly admiring my hair style that involves applying lots of very stiff product and pushing it straight up kinda like Vanilla Norm’s … ah Ice’s hair)….
Anyway – she says we need to be careful about opening up because of ‘the mutations’ …. oh ya the facking mutations…. just like the mutations in those movies where the virus from outer space hits the earth and mutates and instead of making us cough it eats our brains…
Oh ya the mutations. Gotta watch out for those mutations …. cuz we know this virus is already eating our other organs… imagine if it started eating our brains…
And it’s all part of Trump’s plan to get re-elected…. really? — oh ya … check out Bill Maher…. he lays it all out there….
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/04/18/florida-kennel-empty-for-the-first-time-in-history-all-dogs-adopted/
“A Florida kennel at an animal shelter is empty for the first time in history since all of its dogs were adopted.”
2020 is changing human behavior…
does this mean that no one with an unwanted dog has given it up lately?
or that way less dogs are becoming unwanted?
or that isolated persons are seeking dogs for companionship?
all of the above?
i think it’s option (c) above. in Honolulu, the Humane Society is reporting no dogs or cats available for adoption, for the first time ever since it opened.
https://www.barrons.com/news/us-records-1-891-coronavirus-deaths-in-past-24-hours-johns-hopkins-01587258308
“The coronavirus death toll in the United States climbed by 1,891 in the past 24 hours to reach 38,664 on Saturday, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.”
okay, it’s now below 2,000…
less Grandmas and Grandpas are kicking the bucket…
it’s time to “reopen”…
They have been going around looking for past nursing home deaths to add to the totals, I believe. I don’t know what the pattern of deaths would look like, if they were assigned to the date the death actually took place.
The sheer volume of lies that have been exposed re: Wuhan exceed that of WMD…. yet people continue to point to MSM as a source of truth…
This was sent to me yesterday — Maher says the dom p o rn is about getting Trump re-elected…. as I pointed out — NYT CNN etc… are the biggest purveyors depicted on this video so um…. they want Trump re-elected?????
There is still value in having a quick watch of it …. because it demonstrates the extreme lengths that the MSM will go to in order to create Fear and Panic…
Reminiscent of ‘The Terrorists are coming for us’….. ‘Saddam has WDM’…..
Anyone who is unable to see that this flu is being used to carry out an agenda…. is hopeless… pathetic even…. should log off of OFW and start watching re-runs of Jerry Springer on Demand….
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/19/coronavirus-live-updates-asia-europe.html
“President Donald Trump said on Saturday that Texas and Vermont will allow certain businesses to reopen on Monday while still observing coronavirus-related precautions and Montana will begin lifting restrictions on Friday.”
it’s too late, but whatever…
Great!
you are but an errand boy, sent upriver to collect upon a debt.
and you are nearing the mastery of subtly elusive opaqueness… 😉
and just to toss out:
the Doom here on OFW has been amazing in volume and incredibly detailed lately…
the 2020 source material has given us this opportunity…
https://68.media.tumblr.com/917a7365bf2dbb353e16c40557727bb2/tumblr_n0hsfx3MYV1sdqajoo1_400.gif
https://68.media.tumblr.com/418b2088c80e79c06c592d95050b40a5/tumblr_n0hsfx3MYV1sdqajoo3_400.gif
People in the U.S. who currently suffer from smoking-caused illness 16 million
Oh WOW! We better shut down the US economy NOW — and let’s ban smoking…. Let’s start a hotline so you can report anyone you see smoking to the authorities and they can sort them out — because they are putting us all at risk by wrecking the US economy…
And then there is that second hand smoke thing… How Dare They!!!
Now imagine how many people suffered smoking caused illnesses in the 1960s when HUGE numbers of people were smoking….
DID THE US SHUT DOWN THE ECONOMY?????????
The truly intelligent are able to say “I don’t know”.
Yes I agree Robert ; the dumb people just blab away endlessly.
thank you, R W…
Nah – that’s a cop out for feeble minds. The weak of mind say ‘I don’t know’ or ‘because’
The true geniuses will dig .. and dig… and dig some more …. and make a call based on facts and common sense.
But if someone presents facts that indicate you were wrong – you change direction.
Few do that… very very very few
there’s those of enquiring mind, willing to learn the truth from others
there’s those of genius level who dig till they arrive at the truth
you missed the third category, those who just keep on digging, because to stop digging would admit they were in a truthless hole of their own making, gradually reaching the point where—a–(having found no truth) it’s too deep to climb out of, or b—the sides fall in and they are never seen again
Agreed also. It is a wise man who knows what he does not know. “But where shall wisdom be found? and where is the place of understanding?”
“Knowledge, Understanding and Wisdom can be found by being a disciple of Fast Eddy” Fast Eddy, April 20, 2020.
Actually, How to Get Attention might be found by being a disciple of Fast Eddy. Or How to Entertain (those who like this kind of humor).
This has nothing to do with attention seeking …. as FE has demonstrated having gone into the monastery for many months…. it has everything to do with seeking and spreading the truth….
One might say FE has a … Messiah Complex … except that it’s not imagined….
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/50/Messiah_Poster_-_LC.jpg
There is no point in trying… as you can see there is not even any point in trying to explain the obvious to a great many people on OFW.
See my post Re What is Intelligence
Fast Eddy, I suspect that your posts are part of a disinformation campaign by the shadow government which serves a cabal of Swedenborgians. The Swedenborgians are your true masters!
we could suspect that the true hidden Elites have created many web sites to put out vast amounts of supposed info about the hidden truths (which are actually fake) of the most popular con spear asea theeories…
to distract persons from going after the real truth of those hidden Elites…
but then, that would be just another C theeeory…
How come nobody ever accuses black people of secretly controlling world finance? Hey, maybe that’s evidence that black people DO control world finance!
There was this story about a rabbi forced by the Nazis to denounce the Jews. So he condemned the Jews…and the bicyclists.
“Why the bicyclists?!” demanded his Nazi interrogators.
“WHY THE JEWS?!” came the reply.
In the new, modern Russia, two friends lived in adjacent houses. One was called Mikhail, and was Russian Orthodox. The other was called Moishe, and wasn’t.
One fine morning, the two met on their way to the coffee house, and Moishe was looking rather sad.
“Why so sad, Moishe?”
“Because of so much antisemitism, Mikhail”
“Come, Moishe, this is the modern Russia. There is no antisemitism.”
“Then why has the government just announced a pogrom?”
“What! A pogrom?”
“Yes, against the Jews and the dentists.”
“That is the most absurd thing I have ever heard! What have the dentists every done to harm Mother Russia?”
“What were you saying about modern Russia, Mikhail?”
How come nobody learning history of key figures in private enterprise doing central banking and early MNCs of the 16-17th century in UK and Netherlands.. because that system (incl. its share holders) is with us till this very day.
It’s hard to have adult discussion with kinder garden cadre..
100% agree. There does not have to be 5000 comments on each OFW article…. most of the comments are responses to the Grade 3 class…. if nobody rebuts then they are encouraged to post more rubbish because they believe they are brilliant…
I am not suggesting censorship — what I am suggesting is a second OFW…. call it VIP OFW…. the VIPS get access to a room with very hot chicks (and a couple of token pretty boys for the few females in the VIP)… free champagne and the best pills and powders money can buy….
The only way to get into the VIP room is you have to pass a 10 question test…. (e.g. has man ever been out of low orbit… was nine11 a false flag and if so what was the purpose) … FE volunteers to create the test…..
on a more serious note…
the Chomsky idea of “Manufacturing Consent” may be part of the issue here…
I think that there’s a certain overreaction by many people who don’t want to be considered “sheeple” so these types of persons go looking for info/opinions that they can learn and ingrain into their thinking and so bring themselves to a point of pride where they feel they are then superior to those so-called sheeple…
in other words, believers in con spear asea theeeories are going overboard in their quests to find “the truth” that almost everybody else can’t grasp, but they can…
again, it looks like a form of pride… if a Psychologist could comment on this, that would be cool…
I thought of this when, a few days ago, Timm Grroves mentioned Chomsky…
if T G would chime in here with his thoughts, I would appreciate it… if not, that’s okay…
Thinking about intelligence last night … true intelligence…
It’s not the ability to handle complete math or physics problems… it’s not the ability to write well…
True intelligence is the ability to see the truth. True intelligence is the ability to analyze an issue and divulge the truth.
Oil is one issue.
The fact that there is definitely no ‘god’ as per the common definitions is another
The fact that 911 was a false flag is another
The fact that we have not been to the mo on or out of lower orbit is another…
The fact that this wuhan is a ho ax is another
If you ‘get’ one or two of the above you are of above average intelligence (as compared to the stooges who ‘get’ none).
But that’s about it. If you ‘get’ all of the above then you are highly intelligent.
Feel free to dispute this but those of us who ‘get’ it…. will laugh at your feeble minds flailing…. your pathetic attempts to argue…. think of it this way … for us it’s as simple as 1+1=2…..
So trying to convince us it’s 7 …. are … ridiculous… the joke is on you … and you don’t even get it
Is this supposed to be satire?
An element of ‘intelligence’ is surely an understanding that while you can get closer to the truth, limited information can never result in certainty..
thank you, Franck…
Frank – if you think that is satire then you don’t make the team.
I accept that it will be impossible to explain that point to most people.
What’s the team Eddy?
Some kind of super-intelligent Avengers that never need to show how they came to conclusions?
I wouldn’t call it intelligence. There is a lot of really bright people in this world that are clueless about the role of energy in economy, for example, or about the ways of deep state. The Intelligent class tend to be confined in a specialized intelectual environment, in a sort of bubble. And to get the big picture you can’t be a specialist. I belive this is not about intelllgence, but maybe about courage, Courage to face the (always awfull) truth.
Tou mist have the courage and the curiosity to find out the truth. Remember at one point of time, long ago, that peak oil was also a konspirasi theory.
Once people find that the truth is not to their liking, then decide to shut it down. Continue with the good things in life… the truth is just too much for them to handle
we’ve all been at one of those ‘social’ gatherings
we dont all know each other, but make polite conversation
then there is a mutual awareness of a raised voice somewhere–nobody quite knows who it is.
As the voice gets louder, people who don’t know each other start to exchange embarrassed smiles, a raised eyebrow, roiling eyes’
The unsaid comment’ who is that?’ or ‘who invited him? A shaken head: ‘he’s not with me’.
And still the voice gets louder, until the whole room becomes subdued, not in awe at the intellect being vocalised, but through sheer embarrasment at the spouted nonsense being offered.
But of course the owner of the voice thinks the room is awestruck into silence by his display of intellect, when in fact they are looking for somewhere to hide. to avoid ‘connection’.
Those closest to the door take their advantage and slip out, not wanting to be part of it, others feel trapped.
But having been there, I am still left with the question:
Why do I feel embarrassed on his behalf? while he rants on in self absorbed oblivion?
Last time it happened to me, A total stranger looked at me, (outside) laughed, and said: “did you enjoy the cabaret?”
We both laughed again and went our separate ways. Glad to be out of there.
You are correct, there is indeed a special bunch of people having fun when looking at pyroclastic clouds on that “2001 thing” with fire dept. still trapped inside or burning alive non compliant crew on the “landing thing” at previous instance. Psychopaths simply like to laugh..
The only shame you should feel is related to the fact that you are feeble minded yet believe you are a great thinker…
Tell us that story about how civilization needs cheap energy Norm….
You might consider changing your name to Vanilla Norm
Ice Ice Baby …
https://www.thenational.ae/image/policy:1.767660:1536231195/na07-SEP-Vanilla-Ice.jpg
Re reading my comment…….what makes you think i had you in mind? I didn’t mention you at all.
Still if you feel my words apply, please dont let me persuade you otherwise. Always good to get the right response, especially when there was no RSVP attached.
But i do like knowing my sharpest points find the centre of the target. (much more subtle than a brick through the window with a message wrapped round it)
—I try not to waste words in a vacuum of futility. Words are so precious, it is important to use them carefully don’t you think? And without resorting to invective. If you read back through my comments, you’ll find I have no need of that.
Much better to plant seeds in fertile ground, and watch them grow and explode.
did i mention shame?
embarrassment on someone else’s behalf is not quite the same thing.
Norm, you would think that your ideas would grow abundantly in FE as he is full of fertiliser.
LOL!
If you were able to ‘get it’ you’d feel shame – which is a deeper form of embarrassment … there is no danger of that though .. is there….
700IQ Norm…. 700…. It was 500 last week…. How is FE and the universe similar? We are both eternally expanding….
yup
then somebody takes his thumb off the blowhole on the balloon
then
pppppppphhhhhhtttttttttuuuuuppppppppthhhhhhhh—all around the room
until the balloon becomes a limp nothingness, a remnant of what used to be, discarded and forgotten in a corner while the party goes on, collectively relieved and invigorated . knowing that the air that had been accumulated within the balloon was now available to be shared around those who might put it to better use.
The following was sent to me last night — ask yourself as you read this — WHY IS THE USA BEING SHUT DOWN OVER THE WUHAN FLU? IT DOES NOT COMPUTE
Intelligent Questions That People Are Now Asking
Why are deaths across the US down for March compared to years prior?
Why has all government officials framed their narratives like every death is shocking and something that can be avoided when hundreds of thousands of citizens die each year, in every country? Why such a push to frame “normal deaths, in normal populations, from normal end of life conditions” as something we all need to suddenly fear and focus all our attention on? https://bit.ly/3exWyZ4
Why has this medical doctor and state senator come forward to prove that the US federal government is paying hospitals to declare that anyone dying at or entering the hospitals have CV-19 without any confirmatory testing? https://bit.ly/2yfAJgc
Why is the same doctor coming forward to declare that hospitals in the US are being paid $19,000 for EACH falsely claimed CV-19 patient and $39,000 for EACH request of a ventilator? https://bit.ly/2wFxH4i
Why is this medical doctor explaining that giving any patient a ventilator, who can’t breathe, can actually kill the patient? The pressure of ventilation can easily kill any patient is respiratory distress. In turn why is the governor of NY screaming for these ventilators and why is the US federal government incentivizing their use? Why is NY a hot spot of CV death? Could it have to do with a) falsely classifying CV patients and CV infected without any testing and b) placing patients in respiratory distress (because they’re just old and sick) on ventilators, which only worsen their existing conditions? https://wb.md/2V9v5VE
Why has Italy reported that 99% of people who died over the last 3 months had at least one prior diagnosed disease, while 53% who have died had at least 3 prior diagnosed diseases? Most being old and simply dying of natural causes. Given 1800 people die every day in Italy (680,000 natural deaths every year in Italy) why is the media advertising that every single death of a human, in each respective country, means something other than normal deaths, in normal populations, by normal end of life conditions? https://bloom.bg/2K75Gps
Why does this medical doctor clearly explain that any testing of CV-19 is being done with a test that has no reliability to confirm CV or not and that the inventor of this test actually said it should NEVER be used to identify any specific disease? This means if the test was applied, it’s not accurate plus at the same time governments are incentivizing and monetizing CV death and infection reporting which boils down to “guessing and eye balling” each CV death or infected patient. Is science about a faulty test and eye balling the cause of death, while at the same time paying hospitals and doctors to side step accepted and standard scientific protocols? https://bit.ly/3ciwFdK
Why are hospitals empty across the world if everything is as bad as the media and governments say it is? Even in my home town, there’s one hospital 40 minutes North and one inside the town. The country hospital is usually busy and the inner city hospital is always busy, standing room only most days. A family member had a potential broken arm 6 days ago. He went to both hospitals. Not one person at either in the waiting rooms. Zero. No one. Not one person. Same reports from around the world. If you’re going to shut down the entire world, start telling people they can’t feed, clothe and house their families to acceptable standards…..should the reason provided not be concrete and undeniable? https://bit.ly/2Vv4j9l
If governments care about our health, why are the liquor stores open, when alcohol kills 3 million people per year? https://bit.ly/3a9EDEG
If the governments care about our health, why are cigarettes still for sale, when nicotine kills 7 million people every year? https://bit.ly/2XAvGRU
If the governments care about our health, why are fast food restaurants open, (many inside our own hospitals) when junk food kills 11 million people every year? https://bit.ly/2VIUTr5 Why do governments serve junk food to patients inside their own hospitals? Is this consistent with the claim, “we’re shutting the world down and destroying the economy because we care about your health?”
If alcohol, cigarettes and junk food kills 21 million people per year combined, why are all world governments flying the flags of, “we’ll destroy your economy, jobs, freedoms, liberties and your way of life to save 130,000 people. This hurts us more than it hurts you, sorry for your pain, your jobs are gone, ours remain. Tune in tomorrow from your house for your latest update.” That 130,000 CV death toll as well on a planet where 53 million people die annually regardless. Many of the 130,000 CV death count mere fabrications or confirmed with a test that was never designed to diagnose disease. Is this science and why are highly questionable science czars now running our country, acting as elected officials….when no one elected them what so ever
One and a half hour Interview with David Korowicz on 18/04. First half is a discussion re what we already know at OFW. Second half, David trying to be constructive and ‘positive’ (which I think he finds difficult) re what we can do about it and how difficult it can be trying to get the attention of Government with busy in trays and who have little understanding of the complex interconnected nature of the system and its vulnerabilities, the big picture in other words. Gillian Tett wrote a book about this problem called ‘The Silo Effect’ The virus appears to be helping David to garner interest in complexity issues. As Gail has mentioned the system is highly complex, highly interconnected with far too many people with conflicting thoughts and ideas. I think that is why the whole Virus debacle is happening. Every fix seems to have a bigger negative feed back loop .GOVS around the world are just as confused and panicked as the general population! Deer in the headlights springs to mind. Perhaps asking the same questions is this thing a natural zoonotic virus or something manufactured and potentially much more dangerous? They must be questioning why The CCP locked down, what do they know, that they are not sharing!!!! Each Country or even State whilst highly interconnected has its own strengths, weaknesses and demographics which is shaping outcomes and how it responds. The UK being mostly a financial centre can’t seem to make anything or respond quickly enough to even be able to get basic supplies to Medical staff and care facilities. If we don’t learn from this there is no hope for us.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=c-rfn6wH4iA
The below is an interview by Aaron last week with Nicole Foss another great systems thinker.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yjbw4LeZBBw
The system is just a mess due to past excesses and declining ability to repay the excesses. It’s happened before, if you haven’t read ‘Against the Grain’ or have read it before, read it again in light of the virus.
A coworker just today told me he came down with Covid 19. He thought it was a stomach bug because for 4 days he threw up whatever he ate, almost immediately. He went to the Hospital and they informed him it was Coronavirus. Three members of his family came down with it, his eldest son who has problems with Bronchitis was a huge concern.
The Dad (56) was in the Hospital for 4 days only because the doctors found an abnormal rhythm in his heart which was not Covid 19 induced. His fever of 100-102 was lowered with “aspirin”. No ventilator was needed. He was in quarantine for 14 days, he and his other 3 family members are all fine.
So much for everyone needing a ventilator.
I forgot to mention, he was tested for Coronavirus and tested positive “BUT” he was only tested when he already was showing symptoms.
Have heard of similar experiences
…..regards stomach bug/symptoms
“So much for everyone needing a ventilator.”
I have not heard anyone making this claim. Ever.
in short everything is happening for a reason “they” have come to the point where the ponzi financial system is about to implode if that is allowed to happen then the world will die so the virus is all about bringing about a 100% cashless world that will then allow them to have negative interest rates without having “bank-runs” which happens when the world has physical currency as an option . that is their ultimate goal i believe now is the virus real? that depends on one’s belief systems .
Gail, I have been wondering how many years it will take for oil products to become expensive again. Currently we have a commodity collapse in oil and companies are going to go under, but we see banks starting to take over the collapsing fracking oil companies. I would think the much bigger oil companies would need to start shuttering production/refining, but can’t figure out at what point they would start it back up. Would they start up the shuttered facilities when they could at least make $70/barrel or would they wait until they could make over $100/barrel? I understand the concepts of prices too high for consumers and too low for producers, but there has to come a point where oil becomes and stays pricy, and I wonder if you have a sense of when that could be, or what would have to happen. For example, if someone knew they had to live in an “unwalkable” community for another three years, and thought oil companies would shutter production until they could get high prices again, then it might make sense for an individual to buy an electric car to get through that intervening time period. But if oil companies had some kind of built-in incentive to shutter and then open up at $50-$70/barrel, then keeping a typical gas-only kind of car would make sense. What do you think?
I think that there is going to be a major change in the economy. It is easy to assume that the future will be like the past, but I don’t think it will.
A larger and larger share of today’s jobs will disappear. There will be fewer and fewer things available in stores. Roads won’t be repaired, in most places. We may not want to live where we do now because the system has changed too much.
I don’t think I would try to outguess the system. Do you want an electric car if you don’t have electricity, for example?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/glutted-oil-markets-next-worry-subzero-prices-11586943001
Gail, I shouldn’t have put in the electric car example, because it detracted from my main question of what will oil companies have to do to survive these horribly low prices and in what situation would low prices turn into high prices?
I don’t think that oil prices in US $ will ever become expensive again.
I think that there will be a major disruption to economies, everywhere, and the financial system will change. There will no longer be US$, and oil will no longer be internationally traded. In the new system, it is theoretically possible that prices could be high enough to support a limited population, in a few economies that are able to extract oil. There might also be some people in other parts of the world, in economies using only burned biomass for fuel. But planning for such a scenario is very iffy.
Someone sent me a link to this site. Some readers may find it interesting:
https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/
Finally We May Have a Path to the Fundamental Theory of Physics…
and It’s Beautiful
It is a long piece, but may be interesting to those coming from a physics or mathematics perspective.
Thank you, this is the reason I remain here, many very interesting references. Stephen Wolfram is a very interesting man, heard a presentation by him in 2002 or 2003 at Madison on his book “A New Kind of Science.” Started it, became distracted and put it down. not one of my better ideas, he was not mainstream. Steve wore red tennis shoes, true fashion statement.
Often you have made comments regarding the necessity to publish. etc. Perhaps a year after Wolfram’s book was released I was sitting at a bar in the cities a man sits next to me and the discussion turned to mathematics. The gentleman(I am greatly envious of him) was brighter than god(Field’s medal), he was not enthusiastic regarding Wolfram, thought he should be peer reviewed as I recall. I would consider it to be the greatest wealth in the world to be intellectually at the level of either of these men, but their approach to mathematics was different to say the least. Wolfram founded a business, he was independent of his colleagues, this gentlemen was at Princeton. What I really wanted to ask was how far was his office from Einstein’s office, I was polite and deferred. Different worlds.
Regarding “A New Kind of Science.” that one needs to be revisited by me in my few remaining years, impossible work without computers.
I have followed your advice over the years, dance was a good choice, made because of you. This book, late in life, I am really not bright enough to other than appreciate it, but still, maybe it is a nice way to go, costs very little. The old ideas don’t seem to work, time to be brave and look for some new ones if only to get a glimpse. Your ideas of self organization are encompassed by Steve’s book.
Some of what posters present here is well, entertaining. FE should know that the moon was visited long ago and we all know that as in “Hey diddle, diddle, the cow jumped over the moon.” FE must have been asleep when his mother read that nursery rhyme to him. If mother says it, it must be true, silly FE, mother is always right. Again, thank you all.
All the best to all of us,
Dennis L.
“Finally We May Have a Path to the Fundamental Theory of Physics…
and It’s Beautiful”…
well, they better hurry down to the end of that path, because the window is closing on the modern age of advanced scientific discoveries…
and the thought of that closing window is not “Beautiful”…
Seems like the 21st century has not been a walk in the park. Steve from Virginia had the following quote:
“We’ve been experiencing one plague after another since the turn of the millennium: wildfires, floods, massive storms, locusts, plant and animal diseases, droughts, now human pestilence. This is a tuneup for overcoming/surviving climate change and peak oil. Maybe we need to change our ways.”
https://www.economic-undertow.com/
So, I am game, what way should be changed?
Should you suggest a manner of effort, you must demonstrate it in cleaning your own bedroom first, per Jordan Peterson.
Dennis L.
In a sense, we have made the world too connected and too complex. We have made huge expanses of mono crops and we have crammed people into small buildings for hours on end.
At the same time, there is too much difference between the most well and the least well. The least well are terribly vulnerable.
The system is trying to fix this problem for us.
That feeds back into What is Real Intelligence…
Is it complex mechanical, financial, agricultural, medical and other systems?
Take fire – farming – steam engines – autos – airplanes – nuclear energy —computers – the internet…. are they the inventions of intelligent people?
Nobody need answer that. MOTHER is going to answer that for us in due course.
For those of you who are losing their minds reading this post saying hang on FE you go too far — Edison and Borlaug were brilliant….
When you are cowering under your beds … watching your family starve to death….
That’s when you should answer the above question.
Very few people will understand or accept what FE has just posted here.
The sudden devaluation of the “great minds of the past” is inevitable when we become aware of the limits and finitude of the planet, since most of those great ancestors did not have that consciousness. After all, the limits of growth were truly understood only a hundred years after Carnot, Celsius and the like, and just by some unhappy few.
We have the “advantage” of being at the end of the process and being able to appreciate the outcome of their brilliant minds and inventions: overshoot. Then, our cleverness as species condemned us. Too smart for our own good, as Craig Dilworth has put it.
I do get so tired of listening to these greenies who moan about everything… then go back to their computers, cars, vacations and comfortable homes…..
Some of them get giddy over the thought of a private jet ride to NZ….
Good grief! That is so ridiculous. I’ve read that type of argument many times and it has never made sense. People can’t just leave the society that they’re in. It’s practically impossible. However, I agree with the vacation bit. That’s why I don’t take them.
Yes of course they cannot and will not – so ATTENTION ALL GREENIES — you are hypocrites so SHUT YOUR BIG FAT PIE HOLES.
And continue with BAU … get back in your cars… go to the mall.. buy more stuff (of course all the stuff you buy is Important – all the stuff other people have in their shopping carts is Wasting resources).
Take the vacation … keep buying bananas… drive an EV ….
You know the drill.
Good Grief – right Mike?
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/coronavirus/2020/04/17/Britain-s-non-coronavirus-death-rate-has-spiked-What-s-going-on-.html
Gail answered it on the previous page, similar thing happening in other countries.
But back for the UK’s NHS, they just reported to be on verge of catastrophe by not having any personal protection equipment anymore.. like not shortage but nothing left..
I’m wondering will there be another humanitarian fool effort helping them over again, so the minute they overcome the worst immediately start meddling abroad again..
What a pleasant national-islander-pirate character.
The Brits are descendants of Vikings and Saxon pirates and mercenaries after all….
The stories about the lack of PPE are interesting: I asked a surgeon friend about it, and he said that everything is fully under control and there are no problems in that regard at his hospital – he’s not the type to fob me off with bland BS either.
But he is at one of the top hospitals in the country, which also does not have the highest rate of deaths according to the daily charts: it may well be far worse in say London -huge demand – or the provincial 3rd-rate hospitals which are under-funded and often in hot spots.
My impression is that there is enough low-grade PPE things around here. Kaiser issued me a disposable mask when I stopped by their building to pick up a prescription. The blood bank issued me another disposable mask when I stopped at the church to give blood.
My impression was that the blood bank people had not had adequate instruction in how to use the masks, however. The technician who was taking my blood kept touching the front of his mask with his gloved hand. Later, he proceeded to pick up the reading material I had brought along (from off the floor, to hand to me) with the same gloved hand.
After I finished giving blood, I went out to the snack area to sit and recuperate for a bit. I discovered that my son was finished before me. He was sitting there, eating his snack with the same gloves on that he had worn while touching things in the blood donation area. I suppose I should have thought to warn him earlier that this wasn’t way to do things, but it had never occurred to me that the blood bank would issue us gloves as well as a mask (but give no instruction in how to use them).
The COVID death rate goes down, and everyone goes and hunts for nursing home deaths to add to the numbers.
Other types of deaths rise, because people are afraid to go to the hospital, for fear of catching COVID. They stay at home after heart attacks and stroke out of fear of COVID. Even if they have cancer, they wait longer to come in.
Hmm the economy is more than going out to eat. That is the least of their worries. I wonder if this is going to be stagflation or massive deflation. China was in trouble before the Crisis…that is why the FED was so busy bailing out the repo market. Chinese banks have had to dump the dollar by about 2 trillion.
On another note how do you talk to relatives that think this will be a V recovery?
Everything in the economy is interconnected. Restaurant is just one of the cogs. If one of the cog is not moving well or jammed, then the world facade can come down. Please look for Korowicz’s supply chain read up. If you have the idea that restaurants can “go away” without causing any problem to the economy, then I am afraid, you are very wrong.
Looks as if we are shifting to a virtual we world…
Stunned by coronavirus, a college town slowly awakens to a surreal world
Christine Fernando, Special to IndyStar
USA TODAYApril 16, 2020, 6:37 PM EDT
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Spring break beckoned, flights were booked. Then in one official email after another, it all began to crumble.
At Indiana University’s flagship campus, which has more than 30,000 undergraduate students, classes moved online. Students hastily packed and moved home to their parents, their newfound freedom jerked away. Some were left stranded and far from home.
There’s something transitory anyway about a college town. It’s a four-year bubble between childhood and responsibility, but the moments and memories inside it last forever. College is, more than anything, a communal experience. It’s a place of mentorships and marriages, fraternities and teams. When the coronavirus pandemic ruptured that bubble,
heartbreak took over the town in a wave. The town didn’t just shut down, it emptied out.
Wow, the new norm…will it ever go back to the way it was?
Up to the virus and press coverage
herbie – you may have a point ….
I just went to the Latam Airlines site and booked a virtual flight to Peru — I am now booking a virtual hotel… and a virtual tour ticket to Machu Pichu….
Farmville was just the first phase in our transition to a completely virtual world… it had to start with virtualizing food production … getting people used to the idea of virtual cow, pigs and chickens providing virtual meat …
Education and Travel comprise the next phase… and it is happening — and it is Exciting!!!! 🙂
Wuhan Reopening Spells Trouble For A World Emerging From Lockdown
When lockdown ends, people are still scared or have no money left. Business will take a big hit even after lockdown. Business generally cannot afford a 20% loss of business due to overhead fixed costs. If it is an expensive place like London, NYC or Singapore, then it is going to cause a lot of pain. You don’t need for business to go to zero. Just 20% off and your overhead will be higher than your profits or revenues. Many businesses in large cities with high cost are not really profitable. They just barely able to cover all costs. I know because I am one of the entrepreneur.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/wuhan-has-reopened-yet-nobodys-going-out-eat
This is a big part of the problem. Too many people are still worried. Many have low income, too. “Out of practice” at going out to eat.
https://www.lettera43.it/banche-violenza-crisi-coronavirus/. President of all banks told Is a storm for italian economy
https://www.ansa.it/amp/sito/notizie/economia/2020/04/18/banche-sindacati-rischio-tensioni.-lamorgese-intervenga-_b70d25f0-b744-4501-b195-885a69ff3b23.html. Banks asked more security
I did not see this one coming.
Went to take the garbage and recycling to the transfer station at the town hall. BUT NO IT IS A PANDEMIC. The garbage company has decline to show up. Likely tired out by fork lifting all those dead bodies day and night. The town highway department guys are helping us by offering $4 per bag (used to be $2) for garbage and $2 per bag for recycling used to be free. They say they are just covering costs. I will drive the extra 2x15miles to take it to the transfer station in the neighboring county.
Let the unraveling continue.
LOL epic post
What region of the world are you in mate?
RT suddenly changes stance on “the 2019-2020 Wuhan lab thing” – perhaps only covering for ~allied China now or domestic policy reason. Nevertheless, very silly move at this advanced point in time when several scientists came forward with evidence for genetic cut and paste origins and the overall paper trail of SARS lab experiments is very solid by now anyway.. funnily enough most people commenting under the vid thread there don’t buy this sudden change of opinion either lolz..
New York State 100 miles north of NYC the Corona capital of the world.
That’s what rivers are for…..
One thing that I did not put in the list of issues. Supply chain. I went to Tesco Malaysia large format stores (like Walmart) yesterday for the first time since lockdown started. I was pretty surprised that there are plenty of bare shelves. I could not find a single bottle of peanut butter. The entire aisle of jams and spreads has less than 100 bottles. The varieties or brands are very less. Even soaps, detergents, etc are stocked but very less in quantity. Many brands are missing
Malaysia is not big and we have many local producers. With lockdowns everywhere in the world, it is another time bomb. I have read that car makers in Germany are worried about their smaller suppliers which can go bankrupt. Remember that although with second sourcing, with this worldwide virus thing, both sources of parts may be affected at the same time. It is a global issue.
Major pork processing plant in USA (Smith’s?) Have been shutdown as employees are affected. Food processing plant are very strict on virus because they don’t want to contaminate the food. Partly to protect staff and customer but mainly to protect themselves from lawsuits.
What is the supply chain situation in your area? Better? Worse? No change?
UK is ok for most items but flour and fresh vegetables are noticeably in short supply. The wholesale market for produce has disappeared completely: hotels, pubs, restaurants etc. Those companies that did supply that market are changing their models to supply the home market directly. Can’t be easy for them to do this (no one wants to buy 10kg of cheese or 24 bottles of Coke.). I calculated that some 25% of calories was delivered by the wholesale market to people and this is now having to be delivered to the retail, without any supply chain, trucks etc. Supermarkets cant cope with the extra so for example milk is being poured down the drain. The Scottish fishing fleet is in harbour as there is no market for their produce. It’s the lambing season soon and there is no market for half of them so I see a cull coming of millions soon.
Yes, this is important point, the wholesale market can’t reorganize for retail fully or quickly enough. But this will help alleviate the situation somewhat eventually. Nevertheless the combo effect of producers hording-curbing exports, possible bad harvest, lack of picking-workers, border cargo transport delays-checks etc. would overtake the “little gains” from re-arranging the wholesale market’s unused capacity.
The financial systems is also way too big and it is cancerous even before the arrival of COVID19. The debts were massive, over-leveraged companies doing buybacks of stocks, the repos and the derivatives are just way much more than what it was in 2008. Regulators are probably sleeping at the switch (incompetent or malicious). The banks got bolder and more reckless.
Interest rates all over the world is now close to zero, zero or negative. Nothing left to cut. Money printing is at full speed and countries are issuing debts or using non-existence money like nobody’s business.
The other concern is the Eurodollar, which not many people understand. It is the USD that is held out USA. These are not the jurisdiction of the Feds but it is is possible that the Fed has to backstop them. The amount is actually gigantic. Any USD bonds that are raised outside USA (like from Argentina or Japan) are denominated in USD but has nothing to do with The Feds. The money may have been created out of thin air. If a non-USA bank created a USD loan, it is also classified as Eurodollar.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar
The amount is gigantic.
The last abomination is the derivatives, which at the last count in July 2019 was 600T. It is extremely complex with many interconnected parties. If one fails, then it is likely all will fail due to counter-party issues. No one wants to look into this because it is just too scary.
So, we have the three on top of the list that we have.
Pray tell how this can be solved easily. Debt jubilee by the way is not the answer because one man’s debt is another man’s income. (cue real estate rental and pension funds)
One thing I noticed is that the local Wal Mart was totally out of vitamins and the section was cleared out which was very odd because the store was not busy at all and this was on a weekday at about 1130am. At the moment I thought how odd and I picked up a remaining melatonin to see where it came from…..the majority brand of vitamin that Wal Mart carries is made in China.
Take from that what you will…..
“What is the supply chain situation in your area? Better? Worse? No change?”
We’re in No. Cal. and I went today to the local Safeway. It had reduced amount of stuff, but there was just about everything there. I’d say it was reflective of some panic long term buying but not to the point of causing further panic.
I’ve been buying a lot online, on a ‘spend it while you have it principle’: my money maybe worthless next year, or the goods simply unavailable. Also, I’m preparing for being locked-down this coming winter.
I’ve noticed that manufactured domestic goods are often sold out completely (I assume many are Chinese in origin): and in terms of foodstuffs, ranges have been reduced and rationalised and – most astonishing of all – absolutely no kind of flour available at all at my usual supermarket! They used to offer about a dozen types and brands.
At first bread flours disappeared, and now all types. until a week ago basic plain and self-raising were available.
This coming week I will try the actual shops in town for the first time in over a month and see what is what.
Exactly, as you mentioned, and very predictable, when the most popular brand-flavor of choice goes out of stock, people immediately jump at the nearest substitute, and in few days-weeks there is nothing at all, even in bulk packaging at the whole sale level..
In terms of winter lock down preparations starting now, good for you, I’d only worry about the size – storage required for it, as it likely takes a lot of place to have diverse supply at hand.
I think the flour shortage is to do with the swap between wholesale and retail markets. Just think how many sandwiches and pastries were eaten each day that are not now being made. The flour is now having to find its way to the home but there is no packaging for small quantities. My sister received a delivery of branded flour unlabelled, a friend his in a plastic box.
Makes me wonder why in NZ we are unable to buy anything but booze online (they will deliver)….
We are at the end of the supply chain – and a tiny market …. perhaps we cannot buy online because so much would be unavailable that it would cause panic?
“Fast Eddy on April 17, 2020 at 6:58 pm
China pre Chinese New Year was the perfect place to release this … millions were about to head overseas and across the country…”
Let the virus spread November, December, January and then allow 5 million people to leave Wuhan.
CCP: We are just a totalitarian regime… we didn’t know… sorry.
Can you handle the TRUTH?
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/virus-fueled-conspiracy-theories-aim-hospitals-70209403
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/apr/03/facebook-posts/hospital-beds-being-kept-empty-prepare-covid-influ/
I agree that the conspiracy theories are getting out of control, here and everywhere else. Maybe this is a real virus, albeit not a very scary one, and the global economy is collapsing because it was a super fragile house of cards? There, I just summed up the situation in one sentence and it’s probably the truth. No scary aliens, Rothchilds, underground mole people, ANON, or other silly explanations necessary.
Where there is smoke, there is fire. Maybe you cannot smell the smoke but someone will. Will that “someone” be dismissed as conspiracy theorist?
There are simply too many scientists (old and young) risking their careers calling it out for what it is in their opinion and expertise a tinkered with lab made mutant of SARS and specific strain of corona..
Who, why, when, where is tangential..
Silly explanations are made at this point only by lazy, indoctrinated or bad people.
We will never get evidence of how this virus started … so we need to apply logic and common sense.
We have seen the data points and the FT article suggesting the CBs were out of bullets… pre Wuhan.
Then magically we get — Wuhan…. never have we had an illness like this (well… except for illnesses related to tobacco, fast food and booze….)
And we have seen that the Wuhan is being hyped…. (well those of us with intelligence can see that).
What that has allowed to out of bullets CBs to do is fire a NUCLEAR BOMB into the global economy — bazooka is not the right word — this is a NUKE — it is destroying the global economy — but it has saved it from the total implosion that was about to take place.
Like I said … this is impossible to prove — but look at the facts… can this all be a coincidence??????
People don’t come to the hospital, when they are worried about other illnesses. So there is a huge drop in other illnesses. Elective surgery is also cut off.
Yep – no general patients and next to no covid patients = https://twitter.com/hashtag/filmyourhospital?lang=en
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“Signs of distress are creeping into the muni market.
“With local economies grinding to a virtual halt, businesses closed and more than 22 million Americans thrown out of work, the fallout is rippling through the $3.9 trillion market that finances far more than just governments that virtually never default on their debts. Hospitals, airports, stadiums and speculative ventures like the Virgin Trains USA railroad in Florida have also sold debt through government agencies — and it’s backed by the money generated by their businesses.
“Analysts widely expect to see more defaults in the state and local debt market, adding to the nearly $1 trillion of fixed-income securities that by last month had already tipped into distress nationwide… Speculation about such strains contributed to a record-setting pullback from municipal-bond funds last month, sending prices tumbling.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/municipal-bond-market-is-already-seeing-a-first-wave-of-distress
“…banks are pretending that 2020 isn’t happening. For instance, banks have made loans to companies, and those loans have covenants requiring those companies to have at least a certain amount of income each quarter, and for the next few quarters of 2020 banks are saying things like “ehh don’t worry about having that much income” or “we’ll just use your 2019 income and pretend 2020 is the same.”
“The basic theory is that 2020 is terrible, but maybe things will get better, and the best way to handle it is to just pretend things are fine and hope that eventually they are. Taking reality into account all at once could cause further disasters: If you insist that every borrower have a lot of income in 2020, they will not, and you will foreclose on all of their loans and cause a cascading series of defaults, and you’ll lose a lot of money. If instead you pretend that everything is fine, a lot of those borrowers might actually recover and repay their loans on time, and you will avoid disaster just by ignoring it.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-17/banks-are-expecting-loan-trouble
It is easy to think of kinds of municipal bonds that will default. I imagine that the many, new added toll lanes are funded with municipal bonds. They clearly won’t have enough revenue. I am wondering how housing for university students is funded. If this sits empty, it will default. Any kind of sports stadium will not have enough revenue.
Let us summarize before the thread is lockdowned (pun intended!)
1. 2000 and 2007 GFF1 is mainly in USA. 2011 is mainly Europe, 1997 Asian Financial Crisis is Asian. 2020 GFC is global. Everything is worldwide. Every single country and even if one country opens up, the rest, which are closed, will not help the country that opened up.
2. SARS is Asia, Canada and Australia, H1N1 is mainly USA but COVID is global
3. Everything is massive and global. Almost everything is “since record keeping started” – Unemployment, income loss, business closure, bankruptcy and everything else that are measured
4. >80% demand destruction – airlines, hotels, etc. For some industry, they are around 40%. Discretionary spending is almost non-existence. You buy phones, cars only if you have no options like broken phones or cars. No one is in the mood to buy anything.
** I don’t really believe the statistics that some items are only down 20%. Petroleum products (gasoline, aviation fuel, bunker fuel, plasti feedstock, etc) should be down more than 50% like 45mbpd, not 25mbpd or 36mbpd. When all industries are at standstill, no one is interested to build or produce anything.
5. Massive amount of deflation – delinquency of loans and these will effect upstream like banks, investors, etc.. There is also a “supply chain” for financial services (the chain of one paying another – rental units to landlords to banks to MBS investors, investment bank, pension funds, etc) – complex indeed
6. Massive leverage across all industries. Massive debts. Totally unseen before in human history.
7. Massive hysteria and fear being propagated. Even if the lockdown is removed, people are scared – social distancing will impact businesses (50% less crowd at supermarkets, restaurants, etc) and people may not want to spend money (because they are scared of getting the virus). The psychological scar is tremendous.
8. Commodities prices are getting lower due to demand shock. Maybe food prices may go up in the near future as harvest may not be good (bad planting, harvest, no manpower to do the work in the farms)
9. The proposed surveillance state requires high EROEI and we don’t have that liberty. It adds a very energy-intensive and complex layer to the society. Right now, the society is trying to “undo complexity” or simplify.
10. All the problems above come in together and happened in a short period of time. It is just 2 months and 3 weeks since the lockdown of Wuhan. The last 4 weeks has 20m+ people unemployed in USA and we are just at the beginning.
I may have missed out. Please add in the list. I am sure I have left out some critical points.
11. COMEX, LBMA – physical gold and paper gold issue. People are asking for physical gold and there is a chance, they bullion banks or exchanges cannot deliver (As the gold may not be there)
Great List.
Here in the US regular precious metals exchanges like APMEX, JMBuillion, etc. have recorded record purchasing of PM’s and have massive delays for shipping products, getting products, and are sold out of most product that they have. Looks like there was a run on PM’s which was actually taking place when the market started to crater and just accelerated once coronavirus really took hold. Expect the PM exchanges to have a difficult time sourcing PMs in the future as Mexico and Peru have shut down their mining operations for the time being.
The dislocation between paper gold and physical gold will be a big earthquake in the financial market. It might be the snowflake that cause the avalanche. As stated in my earlier post, we see presently looking up in the sky and we see a snow storm coming. It is 100% confirmed that a big snowstorm is coming. We just don’t know when (days or weeks or months) and how severe it will be. We also don’t know which snowflake will cause the avalanche.
total destruction of the oil industry which must stop because the tanks are full. Terribile drought in Italia se Will lose crops for sure
Yep, semolina pasta (spaghetti, penne, ..) made in Italy unobtanium already..
Italia import 70 % of grain. I cant immagine Italia whitout pasta
“We are experiencing the driest spring of the past 60 years [Italy]. At national level, 60% of precipitation is missing..
“…the first half of the meteorological spring, that is the period between the beginning of March and the middle of April, was decidedly stingy with rain. The absence of rains in recent weeks is exacerbating the drought problem that has dragged on since the beginning of the year.”
https://www.ansa.it/canale_ambiente/notizie/clima/2020/04/16/siccita-e-la-primavera-piu-secca-degli-ultimi-60-anni_e6e894a8-57ea-4603-a389-f21a3e484da0.html
True. I live in center Italia and Is scared situation
We have the reverse. The newspaper says that we have had 27.14 inches of rain YTD. The normal level is 15.60 inches of rain.
“Italy is staring down the barrel of the worst recession since the Second World War, which could bolster the far-right… The coronavirus emergency in Italy has fuelled not only national pride but also eurosceptic and populist narratives.
“That brew could play right into the hands of Matteo Salvini, whose League party governed Italy in a coalition for a year until summer 2019 and who is determined to return quickly to power, to rule alone.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8232267/Fears-Italys-coronavirus-crisis-trigger-surge-far-right-extremism.html
Italy wasn’t doing well before. One of its many problems is a blight of olive trees.
https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/business/extraordinary-plan-revitalize-olive-trees-puglia/77764
Someone has a plan to solve this issue with money, too.
Everyone knows that large crops of a single plant are likely to eventually develop a pest that can destroy the entire output. The situation is like a much worse version of COVID-19. The proper way for olive trees to grow is in very small groups. This way, it is harder for pests to “take them out.” This is the same issue we are encountering with human diseases and with animal diseases, such as the virus that affected pigs in China. Locusts are yet another kind of pest that affect large areas of single-type crop.
Another comment from the article:
Sounds even more like COVID-19.
Extremist far right? Said who, int msm?
Italy for Italians what a novel and dangerous concept!
#9 I’d not necessarily agree on the surveillance layer future density, because for many desired functions it’s already enough, 4G telecommunications, street cameras, GPS, purchasing and payment verification on the net etc. That’s all in existence now. And the crown jewel of gov-CB’s e-coin money is a software running on large database, which could be perhaps outsourced to large IT companies with existing hw capacity now when they lack other clients with depression economics.
Specifically, with “e-coin” they can easily run away with “degrowth” for a few years, perhaps even one or two decades more, the money would be selectively self destructive to certain (arbitrary floating) time limit, meaning you receive your “sustenance support” UBI e-credit and according to your social score (ala Chinese model) able to spend only on allowed-preferable items based also onto your behavior. So, seems to cover it all, long emergency, inflation, social unrest, ..
Hence no new load of whiskey (or denied ice skating gear) for FE or food / childcare for “third party” organizers and other rebel-troublemakers..
That’s one possible scenario, obviously the default option/narrative being this is the genuine “final economic crash” and nobody will be picking it up from now on.
worldofhanumanotg – don’t this extra complexity requires extra energy? extra manpower ? which we don’t really have in future? Don’t talk about the low energy prices. don’t mix up cause and effect.
Not sure how you meant it, genuine question.
With UBI-MMT like policies, you can fire lot of local and fed bureaucracy, it’s a simplification. The digital angle has been already answered as it might not be that big new layer added into the (pre)existing reality.
Again, let me repeat, this is just a scenario, possibility how to prolong quasi-BAU in elegant way for some more time, because with shocked-reset demand there is suddenly ample resources left. Yes, it still could fail on many aspects sooner than the handlers and planners dare to imagine..
I think what happens when all of the emphasis is placed on COVID-19 is that other healthcare nearly disappears. The resulting rise in mortality in other illnesses may very well be larger than the savings in mortality due to the better fight against COVID-19.
There is a WSJ article today called, The Hidden Toll of Untreated Illnesses
Or try this link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-hidden-toll-of-untreated-illnesses-11587128385
As Covid-19 overwhelms doctors and hospitals, patients with other conditions receive less care, leading to a rise in mortality.
The author, Sandeep Jauhar, is a NYT author. This article doesn’t seem to be available by search, but it is available to paper subscribers.
Here are some video links for you all
Protest against lockdown and search engines scrubbing them :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRuYu8-_w18
Lies, Damn Lies and Coronavirus Stattistics
Flags imported from Asia?
Just dawned upon me that if the protests are not handled properly, it can turn ugly very quickly. With messenging services like WhatsApp and social media, it may spread quickly even if MSM are not reporting it. The government may need to shut down social media and messaging services. However, it that happens, it might be worse off when pepple realized that they cannot communicate anymore. They may take matters in their own hands.
What is it good for protesting in front of empty bldg. of State House and similar when Nancy types are eating their chocolate ice creams, well hidden and protected in their mansions. Not mentioning the owner class inside their chateaux-park estates across the pond..
Last time the warehouse strike, handful walked out of ~5k employees on that site, and when they fired the “ring leader” all sheep returned back to work..
Agreed – the CDP is not guaranteed to work…. hunger may trump fear…. people are already resisting the Call to Cower….
If too many do’t buy in then we get the chaos that was baked in without the CDP
However if the numbers who resist are not too large — then the military can put an end to that …
See those people in Michigan …. imagine how many of them would cower if the military let bullets fly…
Some might fight back — but no big deal – the US military knows how to create – and deal with – terrorists…. far more experienced and extreme terrorists than those in Michigan…
And without a doubt — the vast majority of people would be cheering on the military as they hunt these guys down and shoot them dead….
You can bet the house on that.
So far everything is going to plan….
Protesting the lockdowns is sort of what happened in France. They just simply went back to their usual level of social interaction and what was the result of that behavior? Yesterday France had 17,000+ new infections or about 3 times as many as they were having when they were sheltering in place. It doesn’t show for France today because the counter on official numbers has reset, but ck. that number later today.
We’re stuck between a rock and a hard place. If we go back to back to the way we were before, the number of infected rises quickly. If we shelter in place the numbers of infected rises slowly but business isn’t so good. We’re stuck until there’s a vaccine, if that is possible and I’ve read that it is because the virus is simplistic in overall expression.
Meanwhile, US states ignoring the pandemic will pay a price medically. There’s just no way around that.
Time will tell….. Death rates and testing methodologies have major flaws, an increasing number of scientists are coming out to expose that this is in line with a typical flu season.
Here are 3 groups-
https://www.globalresearch.ca/12-experts-questioning-coronavirus-panic/5707532
https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/17/8-more-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/55002.htm
We are not stuck until there is a shot- that is a false narrative. Even if you spent millions and deployed one, virii can mutate quickly, making the shot worthless.
There are antiviral drugs, immune strengthening herbs, IV vit C, etc that are not deployed at scale because they don’t fit into the conventional paradigm.
The issue is compromised immune systems (much of it due to chemical exposure) and we are all swimming in a sea of virii that even fall from the sky. Coronaviruses are a part of us, they are nothing to fear.
The media is failing to ask the proper questions. We are causing FAMINE globally with these lockdowns, not to mention destroying the social fabric.
So what is the greater harm?
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“Aircraft occupancy is at dangerously low levels. Exactly one year ago, 2.6 million people passed through airport security on a single day. Yesterday, the TSA reported that just 95,085 were screened and boarded a plane in the U.S.
“…the airline industry has a big problem even if it comes out of this pandemic financially unscathed. How will it convince passengers—or even its own employees—that it’s safe to fly again? Will they want to squeeze onto airplanes with hundreds of strangers in the aftermath of a deadly, viral pandemic?”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nataliesachmechi/2020/04/17/airlines-are-being-bailed-out-again-heres-what-economists-think-will-happen-next/#4a55d725356f
They certainly don’t need many TSA screeners now, either.
“…the airline industry has a big problem even if it comes out of this pandemic financially unscathed. How will it convince passengers—or even its own employees—that it’s safe to fly again?”
The same goes for the cruise industry. Part of it will be the fear of being quarantined.
“Emmanuel Macron has said that the European Union faces a “moment of truth” as it reckons with the devastating financial fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, warning that “the populists will win” and the bloc will splinter if is unable to unify in its response.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/europe/emmanuel-macron-coronavirus-response-populism-intl/index.html
I expect that the block will splinter. One more thing to disagree on.
Commodities round-up: US Steel mills idle; South Africa lockdown delays stainless surcharges; container traffic plunges…
https://spendmatters.com/2020/04/17/commodities-roundup-steel-mills-idle-south-africa-lockdown-delays-stainless-surcharges-container-traffic-plunges/
I’m just about to start my work from home for the next few days. I’ll give everyone an update on how the volume looks crossing from Canada into the United States. So far my brokerage has officially reported a 30% drop in volume. This is raw goods like steel, plastics, lumber, asphalt, diesel, food, and more.
I notice that production is being suspended at a copper-cobalt mine. This doesn’t help the electric car manufacturers.
Our volume is now down 35% over the last 6 weeks, and it dropped 5% in just the last week alone. I would say that’s likely representative of the entire northern border and we’re only 1 brokerage out of many. I work for one of the biggest ones at UPS. Our manager is deluded into thinking things are about to get better any time now.
Thanks, Tango Oscar – that is an eyebrow-raising drop.
The virus has shaken our collective sense of invulnerability.
The growing awareness that the supply chains we have long taken for granted are also frail poses another huge psychological shock for the species’ psyche.
2019 was a year of violent protests. 2020 looks like it will be characterised more by a sense of collective nervous breakdown.
And indeed perhaps the comments section of OFW is a microcosm of that. 😀
“…the crucial question was always how the Trump administration would react to proposals to either to expand the IMF’s own firepower or to expand the stock of SDRs. Relations between the Trump administration and the IMF have on the whole been cooperative. At the end of March, the U.S. Congress approved a renewal of the so-called New Arrangements to Borrow, a fundraising facility essential to maintaining the IMF’s firepower.
“But over the course of the spring meetings this week, the attitude of the Trump administration has hardened. At the same time as, to the horror of global opinion, President Donald Trump took aim at the World Health Organization (WHO), the U.S. Treasury made clear that it would not join the SDR bandwagon…
“The U.S. Treasury views the proposals for SDR expansion as ill-targeted. Because SDRs are issued on a symmetrical basis in proportion to existing shareholding, 70 percent would go to G-20 members—most of which did not need them. Only 3 percent would go to those most in need. If members of the G-20 want to increase the SDRs available to poorer countries, they can start by lending them some of theirs…
“The upshot is that there has been temporary debt relief and new ways to quickly disburse funding from the IMF but no overall increase in the fund’s own resources and no increase in the SDR allocation to the poorest countries.
“The situation of the low-income countries is dire, but they are small in economic terms. According to the World Bank, they owe a total of just over $150 billion in public debt. By contrast, the middle-income countries, the emerging markets in the true sense, owe almost $7.69 trillion, of which $484 billion is long-term bonds held by private investors, $2 trillion is long-term debts owed to banks, and $2.1 trillion is short-term borrowing. Little wonder that voices from Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, and Chile are asking: “Where is the deal for the middle-income countries?”
“…Why then is the United States resisting the issuance of new SDRs?
“…One suggestion is that the U.S. Treasury does not want to see an extra allocation of IMF resources to Iran and Venezuela, two enemies of the Trump administration. Not only would the Trump administration be worried about the relief provided to Caracas and Tehran. Even more important is the likely reaction in Congress from the ranks of the president’s own party.
“…If, in fact, we face the worst-case scenario of a prolonged and recurring pandemic, this year’s spring meetings have left the global financial safety net looking dangerously thin.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/17/global-pandemic-bailout-imf-world-bank-meetings-america-sdrs/
“The current confluence of factors suggests that such a Panama-style invasion of Venezuela is not only a possibility, but increasingly likely.
“Indeed, as previously mentioned, the U.S. has ordered the few U.S. companies that have been given waivers to avoid sanctions for their operations in Venezuela (namely Chevron) to terminate their dealings in the country by April 22 – next Wednesday.”
https://www.mintpressnews.com/us-shale-oil-plunges-trump-admin-takes-aim-venezuela/266710/
Big question: Who do you bail out, and how?