The world’s number one problem today is that the world’s population is too large for its resource base. Some people have called this situation overshoot. The world economy is ripe for a major change, such as the current pandemic, to bring the situation into balance. The change doesn’t necessarily come from the coronavirus itself. Instead, it is likely to come from the whole chain reaction that has been started by the coronavirus and the response of governments around the world to the coronavirus.
Let me explain more about what is happening.
[1] The world economy is reaching Limits to Growth, as described in the book with a similar title.
One way of seeing the predicament we are in is the modeling of resource consumption and population growth described in the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth, by Donella Meadows et al. Its base scenario seems to suggest that the world will reach limits about now. Chart 1 shows the base forecast from that book, together with a line I added giving my impression of where the economy really was in 2019, relative to resource availability.
Figure 1. Base scenario from 1972 Limits to Growth, printed using today’s graphics by Charles Hall and John Day in “Revisiting Limits to Growth After Peak Oil,” with dotted line added corresponding to where the world economy seems to be in 2019.
In 2019, the world economy seemed to be very close to starting a downhill trajectory. Now, it appears to me that we have reached the turning point and are on our way down. The pandemic is the catalyst for this change to a downward trend. It certainly is not the whole cause of the change. If the underlying dynamics had not been in place, the impact of the virus would likely have been much less.
The 1972 model leaves out two important parts of the economy that probably make the downhill trajectory steeper than shown in Figure 1. First, the model leaves out debt and, in fact, the whole financial system. After the 2008 crisis, many people strongly suspected that the financial system would play an important role as we reach the limits of a finite world because debt defaults are likely to disturb the worldwide financial system.
The model also leaves out humans’ continual battle with pathogens. The problem with pathogens becomes greater as world population becomes denser, facilitating transmission. The problem also becomes greater as a larger share of the population becomes more susceptible, either because they are elderly or because they have underlying health conditions that have been hidden by an increasingly complex and expensive medical system.
As a result, we cannot really believe the part of Figure 1 that is after 2020. The future downslopes of population, industrial production per capita, and food per capita all seem likely to be steeper than shown on the chart because both the debt and pathogen problems are likely to increase the speed at which the economy declines.
[2] It is far more than the population that has overshot limits.
The issue isn’t simply that there are too many people relative to resources. The world seems to have
- Too many shopping malls and stores
- Too many businesses of all kinds, with many not very profitable for their owners
- Governments with too extensive programs, which taxpayers cannot really afford
- Too much debt
- An unaffordable amount of pension promises
- Too low interest rates
- Too many people with low wages or no wages at all
- Too expensive a healthcare system
- Too expensive an educational system
The world economy needs to shrink back in many ways at once, simultaneously, to manage within its resource limits. It is not clear how much of an economy (or multiple smaller economies) will be left after this shrinkage occurs.
[3] The economy is in many ways like the human body. In physics terms, both are dissipative structures. They are both self-organizing systems powered by energy (food for humans; a mixture of energy products including oil, coal, natural gas, burned biomass and electricity for the economy).
The human body will try to fix minor problems. For example, if someone’s hand is cut, blood will tend to clot to prevent too much blood loss, and skin will tend to grow to substitute for the missing skin. Similarly, if businesses in an area disappear because of a tornado, the prior owners will either tend to rebuild them or new businesses will tend to come in to replace them, as long as adequate resources are available.
In both systems, there is a point beyond which problems cannot be fixed, however. We know that many people die in car accidents if injuries are too serious, for example. Similarly, the world economy may “collapse” if conditions deviate too far from what is necessary for economic growth to continue. In fact, at this point, the world economy may be so close to the edge with respect to resources, particularly energy resources, that even a minor pandemic could push the world economy into a permanent cycle of contraction.
[4] World governments are in a poor position to fix the current resource and pandemic crisis.
In our networked economy, too low a resource base relative to population manifests itself in a strange way: It appears as an affordability crisis that leads to very low prices for oil. It also appears as terribly low prices for many other commodities, including copper, lithium, coal and even wholesale electricity. These low prices occur because too large a share of the population cannot afford finished goods, such as cars and homes, made with these commodities. Recent shutdowns have suddenly increased the number of people with low income or no income, pushing commodity prices even lower.
If resources were more plentiful and very inexpensive to produce, as they were 50 or 70 years ago, wages of workers could be much higher, relative to the cost of resources. Factory workers would be able to afford to buy vehicles, for example, and thus help keep the demand for automobiles up. If we look more deeply into this, we find that energy resources of many kinds (fossil fuel energy, nuclear energy, burned biomass and other renewable energy) must be extraordinarily cheap and abundant to keep the system growing. Without “surplus energy” from many sources, which grows with population, the whole system tends to collapse.
World governments cannot print resources. What they can print is debt. Debt can be viewed as a promise of future goods and services, whether or not it is reasonable to believe that these future goods and services will actually materialize, given resource constraints.
We are finding that using shutdowns to solve COVID-19 problems causes a huge amount of economic damage. The cost of mitigating this damage seems to be unreasonably high. For example, in the United States, antibody studies suggest that roughly 5% of the population has been infected with COVID-19. The total number of deaths associated with this 5% infection level is perhaps 100,000, assuming that reported deaths to date (about 80,000) need to be increased somewhat, to match the approximately 5% of the population that has, knowingly or unknowingly, already experienced the infection.
If we estimate that the mean number of years of life lost is 13 years per person, then the total years of life lost would be about 1,300,000. If we estimate that the US treasury needed to borrow $3 trillion dollars to mitigate this damage, the cost per year of life lost is $3 trillion divided by 1.3 million, or $2.3 million per year of life lost. This amount is utterly absurd.
This approach is clearly not something the United States can scale up, as the share of the population affected by COVID-19 relentlessly rises from 5% to something like 70% or 80%, in the absence of a vaccine. We have no choice but to use a different approach.
[5] COVID-19 would have the least impact on the world economy if people could pay little attention to the pandemic and just “let it run.” Of course, even without mitigation attempts, COVID-19 might bring the world economy down, given the distressed level of today’s economy and the shutdowns experienced to date.
Shutting down an economy has a huge adverse impact on that economy because quite a few workers who are in good health are no longer able to make goods and services. As a result, they have no wages, so their “demand” goes way down. If the economy was already having an affordability crisis for goods made with commodities, shutting down the economy tends to greatly add to the affordability crisis. Prices of commodities tend to fall even lower than they were before the crisis.
Back in 1957-1958, the Asian pandemic, which also started in China, hit the world. The number of deaths was up in the range of the current pandemic, relative to population. The estimated worldwide death rate was 0.67%. This is not too dissimilar from a death rate of 0.61% for COVID-19, which can be calculated using my estimate above (100,000 deaths relative to 5% of the US population of 33o million).
Virtually nothing was shut down in the US for the 1957-58 pandemic. When doctors or nurses became sick themselves, wards were simply closed. Would-be patients were told to stay at home and take aspirin, unless a severe case developed. With this approach, the US still faced a short recession, but the economy was soon growing again. Populations seemed to reach herd immunity quite quickly.
If the world could somehow have adopted a similar approach this time, there still would have been some adverse impact on the economy. A small percentage of the population would have died. Some businesses might have needed to be closed for a short time when too many workers were out sick. But the huge burden of job loss by a substantial share of the economy could have been avoided. The economy would have had at least a small chance of rebounding quickly.
[6] The virus that causes COVID-19 looks a great deal like a laboratory cross between SARS and HIV, making the likelihood of a quick vaccine low.
In fact, Professor Luc Montagnier, co-discoverer of the AIDS virus and winner of a Nobel Prize in Medicine, claims that the new coronavirus is the result of an attempt to manufacture a vaccine against the AIDS virus. He believes that the accidental release of this virus is what is causing today’s pandemic.
If COVID-19 were simply another influenza virus, similar to many we have seen, then getting a vaccine that would work passably well would be a relatively easy exercise. At least one of the vaccine trials that have been started could be reasonably expected to work, and a solution would not be far away.
Unfortunately, SARS and HIV are fairly different from influenza viruses. We have never found a vaccine for either one. If a person has had SARS once, and is later exposed to a slightly mutated version of SARS, the symptoms of the second infection seem to be worse than the first. This characteristic interferes with finding a suitable vaccine. We don’t know whether the virus causing COVID-19 will have a similar characteristic.
We know that scientists from a number of countries have been working on so-called “gain of function” experiments with viruses. These very risky experiments are aimed at making viruses either more virulent, or more transmissible, or both. In fact, experiments were going on in Wuhan, in two different laboratories, with viruses that seem to be not too different from the virus causing COVID-19.
We don’t know for certain whether there was an accident that caused the release of one of these gain of function viruses in Wuhan. We do know, however, that China has been doing a lot of cover-up activity to deter others from finding out what actually happened in Wuhan.
We also know that Dr. Fauci, a well-known COVID-19 advisor, had his hand in this Chinese research activity. Fauci’s organization, the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, provided partial funding for the gain of function experiments on bat coronaviruses in Wuhan. While the intent of the experiments seems to have been for the good of mankind, it would seem that Dr. Fauci’s judgment erred in the direction of allowing too much risk for the world’s population.
[7] We are probably kidding ourselves about ever being able to contain the virus that causes COVID-19.
We are gradually learning that the virus causing COVID-19 is easily spread, even by people who do not show any symptoms of the disease. The virus can spread long distances through the air. Tests to see if people are ill tend to produce a lot of false negatives; because of this, it is close to impossible to know whether a particular person has the illness or not.
China is finding that it cannot really contain the virus that causes COVID-19. A recent South China Morning Post article indicates that roughly 14 million people are to be tested in the Wuhan area in the next ten days to try to control a new outbreak of the virus.
It is becoming clear, as well, that even within China, the lockdowns have had a very negative impact on the economy. The Wall Street Journal reports, China Economic Data Indicate V-Shaped Recovery Is Unlikely. Supply chains were broken; wholesale commodity prices (excluding food) have tended to fall. Joblessness is increasingly a problem.
[8] If we look at deaths per million by country, it is difficult to see that lockdowns are very helpful in reducing the spread of disease. Masks seem to be more beneficial.
If we compare death rates for mask-wearing East Asian countries to death rates elsewhere, we see that death rates in mask-wearing East Asian countries are dramatically lower.
Figure 2. Death rates per million population of selected countries with long-term exposure to the virus causing COVID-19, based on Johns Hopkins death data as of May 11, 2020.
Looking at the chart, a person almost wonders whether lockdowns are a response to requests from citizens to “do something” in response to an already evident surge in cases. The countries known for their severe lockdowns are at the top of the chart, not the bottom.
In fact, a preprint academic paper by Thomas Meunier is titled, “Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic.” The abstract says, “Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, or reproduction number trends. . . We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic.”
It appears to me that lockdowns have been popular with governments around the world for a whole host of reasons that have little to do with the spread of COVID-19:
- Lockdowns give an excuse for closing borders to visitors and goods from outside. This was a direction in which many countries were already headed, in an attempt to raise the wages of local workers.
- Lockdowns can be used to hide the fact that factories need to be closed because of breaks in supply lines elsewhere in the world.
- Many countries have been faced with governmental protests because of low wages compared to the prices of basic services. Lockdowns tend to keep protesters inside.
- Lockdowns give the appearance of protecting the elderly. Since there are many elderly voters, politicians need to court these voters.
[9] A person wonders whether Dr. Fauci and members of the World Health Organization are influenced by the wishes of vaccine and big pharmaceutical companies.
The recommendation to try to “flatten the curve” is, in part, an attempt to give vaccine and pharmaceutical makers more time to work on their products. Is this really the best recommendation? Perhaps I am being overly suspicious, but we recently have been dealing with an opioid epidemic which was encouraged by manufacturers of Oxycontin and other opioids. We don’t need another similar experience, this time sponsored by vaccine and other pharmaceutical makers.
The temptation of researchers is to choose solutions that would be best from the point of their own business interests. If a researcher gets much of his funding from vaccine and big pharmaceutical interests, the temptation will be to “push” solutions that are beneficial to these interests. In some cases, researchers are able to patent approaches, even when the research is paid for by governmental grants. In this case they can directly benefit from a new vaccine or drug.
When potential solutions are discussed by Dr. Fauci and the World Health Organization, no one brings up improving people’s immunity so that they can better fight off the novel coronavirus. Few bring up masks. Instead, we keep being warned about “opening up too soon.” In a way, this sounds like, “Please leave us lots of customers who might be willing to pay a high price for our vaccine.”
[10] One way the combination of (a) the activity of the virus and (b) our responses to the virus may play out is as a slow-motion, controlled demolition of the world economy.
I think of what we are experiencing as being somewhat similar to a toggle bolt going around and around, moving down a screw. As the toggle bolt moves around, I picture it as being similar to the virus and our responses to the viruses hitting different parts of the world economy.
Figure 3. Image of how the author sees COVID-19 as being able to hit the economy multiple times, in multiple ways, as its impact keeps impacting different parts of the world.
If we look back, the virus and reactions to the virus first hit China. China’s recovery is moving slowly, in part because of reduced demand from outside of China now that the virus is hitting other parts of the world. In fact, additional layoffs occurred after Chinese shutdowns ended, because it then became clear that some employers needed to permanently scale back operations to meet the new lower demand for their product.
Commodity prices, including oil prices, are now depressed because of low demand around the world. These low prices can be expected to gradually lead to closures of wells and mines extracting these commodities. Processing centers will also close, making these commodities less available even if demand temporarily rises.
As one country is hit by illnesses and/or shutdowns, we can expect supply lines for manufacturing around the world to be disrupted. This will lead to yet more business closures, some of them permanent. Debt defaults tend to happen as businesses close and layoffs occur.
With all of the layoffs, governments will find that their tax collections are lower. The resulting governmental funding issues can be expected to lead to new rounds of layoffs.
Natural disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, earthquakes and forest fires can be expected to continue to happen. Social distancing requirements, inadequate tax revenue and broken supply lines will make mitigation of all of these disasters more difficult. Electrical lines that fall down may stay down permanently; bridges that are damaged may never be repaired.
Initially, rich countries can be expected to try to help as many laid-off workers as possible with loans and temporary stipends. But, after a few months, even with this approach, many individual citizens and businesses will likely not be able to pay their rent. Default rates on home mortgages and auto loans can be expected to rise for a similar reason.
We can expect to see round after round of business failures and layoffs of employees. Financial systems will become more and more stressed. Pensions are likely to default. Death rates will rise, in part from epidemics of various kinds and in part from growing problems with starvation. In fact, in some poor countries, lower-income citizens are already having difficulty being able to afford adequate food. Eventually we can expect collapsing governments (similar to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union) and overthrown governments.
Longer-term, after this demolition ends, there may be some surviving pieces of economies. These new economies will be much smaller and less dependent upon each other, however. Currencies are likely to be less interchangeable. The remaining people will need to learn to make do with many fewer goods than are available today. It will be a very different world.
Gail, what is your comment?
Reopening reality check: Georgia’s jobs aren’t flooding back
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/21/georgia-reopening-coronavirus-jobs-273070
Reopening is slow going. It is sort of as I expected.
Atlanta has been a big convention center, with the Airport here. Needless to say, this is not back in place.
There are quite a few stores that are back open, including some in our nearby mall. Of course, some stores, such as Pier One Imports, are going out of business.
Some restaurants are open with limited seating availability in addition to take out service.
Hair establishments are open, some with the waiting lines on chairs outside the shops.
The gym that I am a member of (L.A. Fitness) opens tomorrow, so I haven’t seen what they are doing yet. I understand that the equipment will be spread out more. Partly they want feed back from customers. They were originally going to reopen sooner, but needed to coordinate with the corporate view of what needed to be done. I understand that employees will wear masks, but masks are not required for clients.
Churches are mostly slow in getting started back going again. They are worried about offending the many older members.
My husband had his teeth cleaned by a hygienist who was wearing two masks today. I got a message today that my hygienist will not be back until July 1.
The big news today was that some of the healthcare systems are furloughing workers now because they are not needed. Not enough elective surgeries and emergency room visits.
The state government is quite short of tax revenue, so many layoffs and cutbacks are ahead for the fiscal year beginning July 1. Even with trying to restart, this is likely to go on for a long time.
The mortality rate in the U.S is the same as it has been the last two years.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYj4UgCXsAA5NF4?format=jpg&name=900×900
Wow!
Total mortality for the year so far is down over 20,000 compared with 2018.
The lockdown has been remarkably successful.
Shame we had to destroy the economy in order to save it.
Like to see a number on how many lives have been smashed to bits…. resulting in wife beatings… drug and booze addiction …. gotta be into the millions …
Probably overwhelming the social services big time….
Flatten one curve… fatten another….
I suspect the death total from the fattened curve is going to be enormous before we get to the end game
Hey, but at least they got a bailout through without too many people getting upset.
That’s progress.
In France too. Thanks to the lockdown, less car crashes and even less respiratory diseases due to less pollution. Probably more alcohol consumption, psychological troubles, but you can’t buy Fentanyl here (except I suppose on the dark web).
The covid does not help at all for de population.
It sure looks like the UK is on the right track now . Ten million antibody tests. UK will have the info to make good decisions.
You do know that you are just regurgitating irrelevance?
There is no intention to defeat Covid…. it’s a tool
LOL!
Just found out that someone I personally know who had an organ transplant and tested positive for covid-19 antibodies. . How is that possible?
There are a whole lot of false positives in most of the antibody tests.
A test this unreliable is not useful as a metric to be used for determining when to end the lockdowns. The sheer incompetence on display here shows me that uncertainty is what the people making these tests WANT. Confusion and uncertainty. What is unfolding is not even a mitigation of ofw predicaments, as Fast Eddy suggests, it’s just sadistic.
If anyone has not watched Utopia… they should….
Recall how the small group was fighting the PTB to stop them from sterilizing the cattle to bring down global population…. they thought they had uncovered and were opposing a very sinister plot…
But then if I recall one maybe two of them realized the plot was not actually so sinister .. that it was actually what needed to be done to save the world….
There are some parallels here… the PTB are not saving the world with the CDP…. that is impossible…. but they are acting in the interests of all of us by trying to limit the carnage that is certain when 8B people encounter empty shelves and no electricity.
Could be. Two things I do know. I dont know everything and i can be and often am wrong in my perceptions of truth.
Ya I used to be like that but I have honed my IQ to a sharp 700 point… and I am now on such a high plane of consciousness and understanding I get a little light-headed and giddy … you know that feeling when you take a hump in the road at high speed? It’s kinda like that… but constant….
In France too. Thanks to the lockdown, less car crashes and even less respiratory diseases due to less pollution. Probably more alcohol consumption, psychological troubles, but you can’t buy Fentanyl here (except I suppose on the dark web).
The covid does not help at all for de population.
Oops. Wanted to reply below to Yoshua about Falling mortality.
Just got fired from IBM. They say it is not performance related just a need to down size. Looking at the net income line in the second quarter report it was clear IBM did not have the money to both pay the dividend and fund research.
All entrepreneur on OWF, what business do you recommend I start in this brave new economy?
That’s rotten news, Ed. Please accept my condolences.
Have you considered a career in funeral services? It seems to be a growth industry these days.
The big thing that is being discussed now is COVID-19 tracers. I cannot see how this will get anywhere, however. Too many infected; too hard to trace the many contracts.
Sorry to hear that Ed. I remember back in the 80’s when I worked for Wang Laboratories, it was a common belief that you worked for IBM for life. Times have surely changed and it started with Lou Gerstner back in ‘’93. My former mgr at Wang Labs used to work for IBM back in the 50’s and used to tell me stories about the mandatory dress code, and how the computer term “head crash” came about.
Depending on what you did at IBM, and your age you could start your own business. You could even use your former IBM customers as potential clients.
Not good comrade.
Things will never be the same, so we are all adjusting.
With a smile I listen to the populace sure things are going back to “normal”.
Best of luck
Bad luck, Ed – my sympathies. Selling UV conveyor belts to nursing homes (for disinfecting mail) or similar might be something to look at. They won’t attract self-funding residents if they can’t prove they can keep themselves free of Covid-19.
For what it is worth, the CDC seems to have somewhat downgraded the role that viruses on physical objects play in transmitting the disease, at least on its web site. The website now says that the virus spreads easily between people, but does not spread easily in other ways. It gives touching surfaces or objects as an example, along with transmission to or from animals.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/cdc-now-says-ccp-virus-does-not-spread-easily-from-contaminated-surfaces_3358565.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html
More loss of credibility as they change the narrative yet again!
Confusion creates uncertainty … uncertainty results in apathy… I suspect it also leads to mass simmering mental illness… people who are feeling depressed are not likely to riot….
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2020/05/11/lockdown-learned-helplessness/
It also seems to lead to more addiction problems.
How in the world are young people supposed to find a new girl friend/boy friend? Only by computer matchmaking and an occasional ZOOM session? Or sitting six feet apart in the park?
My sentiments exactly, Gail.
Romance was so much easier when the main infection worry was cooties.
However, I guess for oldsters like us the problem is academic.
Thinking more about the doll idea… how about if boy meets girl online.. but they are in lockdown… fortunately they both have my patented 3D doll printing machine… the machine scans each person’s na…ked body … (there would be an option to pay extra for a range of enhancements…) boy prints girl girl prints boy… the doll has a speaker build in… both of them are mic’ed up…
And it’s almost as good as The Real Deal.
http://krapps.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/LadyHuhFINAL.jpg
Or just wear a haptic suit and some other … accessories. That way you can be in VR and just feel the other person. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGeZuFy9PKA
Sorry to hear that you lost your job, Ed. Did you get any shares from them? If so, then this might be the right time for you to sell.
Ed,
It is hyperbole and no sarcasm: assume to start a 27 hour day and an 8 day week. Sleep is something you sometimes daydream about, it is a distant memory. When I followed this sort of thing, it seemed CEO’s of large corporations all had major health issues, assume you will be under constant stress and it will affect your body. You will self medicate, caffeine and alcohol work well and are probably the least destructive of substances available. Expect at this level of intensity you will become a bit strange socially. Activities which are dopaminergic are helpful, if you are not too tired – think about that one and you will get it.
Find a area that is highly weighted to the labor component and less to the capital component. Farming is very heavily capital intensive, income sucks, own the land skip machines. Programming is low capital but it depends on your skill level. Googling(here I am telling an expert my opinion, risk of looking silly) lines/day it still seems to be about 10 except for those true genius programmers such as Linus Torvolds, he may still work alone. Quora states he is a decent programmer – okay, envy is part of life.
How many hours can you focus? Jordan Peterson claims he can focus for three hours, personally I consider ten minutes excellent, but I am quite old now,
Others here may have different experiences.
Put your business on QB from day one, separate capital from expenses, accountants get paid for tax advice, they seem mostly worthless for business advice, they set up books to prepare taxes and keep trying to change what works businesswise to do taxes. I use a firm at what I consider the next level under the large four(three).
Working at IBM I assume your are at least 130+ IQ, most likely 140+, that is a huge advantage, watch your health, sitting is death, exercise is a pain.
Lastly, to be successful you must want it more than life; my metaphor was each day at bat if the stitches didn’t come off the ball I wasn’t hitting it hard enough. It can be done, but there is nothing else in your life. When you make it work, people around you may be resentful of your success, this includes family, mostly family, they expect some of the rewards, success seems binary, you either have it or not, very difficult to know how much you can let off, difficult for a family to understand that idea. You can coast for a while, but there is someone behind gaining on you every day.
Good luck,
Dennis L.
Dennis, thanks for your kind note.
“When you make it work, people around you may be resentful of your success, this includes family, mostly family, they expect some of the rewards, ”
Success is the result of beating others in competition for resources and status. It cannot be handed to someone. What most people family or otherwise want are the REWARDS of success without any achievement. I understand why women might think like this because they seek resources and safety for their children,…but don’t understand why men want rewards for work they did not complete. These men are not arguing for the basics but adequate status and respect for THEM.
It’s in our genes: in hunter-gatherer groups, everyone expects to share in the meat from a good hunt even if they are a not-so-good hunter themselves, and they will harrass of even kill those who do not share.
You’ll be fine, just don’t tell people you’re old. You know what I mean.
If you choose to work for yourself and start your business…
what Dennis said about CEOs working themselves is true…but does not apply to all of them. Some of them barely work at all. If someone can do their job drunk, or high on drugs, they are not working at all.
How does anyone know how much CEOs REALLY work? Has any peasant followed them for a day and recorded how much their work? Can we really trust what might be puff pieces about their work ethic?
Since you work at a semi conductor plant your $ worth will be what you know. You must know a way that would make $$. Save scrap. Increase yield. It doesnt take much to equate to a lot of dollars when its wafers. Now you use your contacts and knowledge and come in as a contractor. You go to a diferent ledger item on the crporate books. you are “good” labor not “bad ” labor. Your in the the fab a tenth of the time for twice the money.
Or you escape. Sell out. Pick up a hoe. Garden.
A quarter of Americans say they won’t take a Covid 19 vaccine when it’s available.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine-poll-exclu/exclusive-a-quarter-of-americans-are-hesitant-about-a-coronavirus-vaccine-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN22X19G
How many make a New Years resolution? How many stick to it?
I talked to someone in the healthcare industry, yesterday. She said she would not take the vaccine when it comes out. Too many chances of adverse outcomes.
Unless it becomes law that you must take the vaccine or face certain types of penalties. After seeing how Obamacare came about and it’s consequences along with the TSA after 9-11, I wouldn’t put it past them.
So, you like small pox, polio, measles, etc?
It’s not so much you, but how about your fellow citizens?
Vaccination has been so successful, people are clueless on the results.
But this is a country that could use less population. Small pox killed over 300 million people when we had a small fraction of the current population.
Think about those 300M and apply Albert Bartlett’s exponential function (and all others who survived due to vaccines)…. then project it…. surely that has added at least a billion to global population….
If it were not for vaccines we would not be in BAU Lite yet… we would have had enough cheap to produce oil and other resources to continue to live large for at least another decade….
https://www.naturalnews.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/91/2019/02/Doctor-Evil-Scary-Death-Skull-Vaccine-Abstract.jpg
You have a point Eddy.
We have historically had a population of 1-10 million, with a near extinction 70,000 years ago.
The predicament (not problem) we are currently experiencing makes extinction a good chance.
Vacciners and Farmers (both industrial and organic) …. along with Eddie Bernays…
Are the cause of this.
To think … if not for them we could all be
https://www.nextavenue.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/man-vs-nature-my-tarzan-story_2.jpg
Most infectious diseases were reduced to near current levels by sanitation and clean drinking water before antibiotics and vaccines arrived on the scene.
In 1885, the city of Leicester in England had a protest against the mandatory small pox vaccination law. Estimated that over 50,000 people attended.
No two people have the same finger prints. No two people have the same DNA. No two people have the same immune system.
To say that vaccines are safe for all is not science, it is science styled marketing.
Most of the common vaccines had several years of testing and development, usually with a few problems with earlier versions. A vaccine rushed out in under a year is much more likely to have ill side effects compared to one developed over 3 to 5 years.
There are no vaccines that were produced in a year.
Enlighten me if there is.
Just getting through phase 1, and then 2 and 3 is immense.
I hang out with virologists, so maybe I’m biased.
The Hong Kong Flu of 1968, a vaccine was developed within 4 months: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu
They spent several years on a SARS vaccine, so this is just a continuation of that existing research.
If vaccines were safe there would be accountability for vaccine makers as only a poorly made vaccine could harm you.
Instead, there is the government/pharma run “vaccine court” – no thanks.
It’s not the microbe that sickens, it’s the terrain. If you generally take care of yourself, mother nature will take care of you. Or so says around 2 million years of human evolution.
The established vaccines are safe. There is a pamphlet that comes with them that tells you what the risks are. If you don’t bother to read before getting a shot or letting your kid get the shot, that’s your choice.
90% of the Amerindians were wiped out from diseases from first contact with the Spanish. Were they all terribly unhealthy? I think your idea is incorrect. Being healthy and young and well nourished helps, but there is also a random element to it.
I’m pretty sure the fact we’re having this discussion proves my theory. None of your thousands of ancestors had vaccines, but yet here you are. Think in bets – what side are the odds on?
Those dumb-ass pamphlets often list death and disability as (side) effects. Think in bets.
And why again are vaccine manufacturers immune from lawsuits?
“And why again are vaccine manufacturers immune from lawsuits?”
THe pat answer. Vaccines screw a certain number of people up. They are beneficial to the whole. If all the people they screw up sued we wouldnt have vaccines.
The question in my mind is not if a polio vaccine is good for the overall public but if a covid vaccine is. The numbers from covid are not so bad. Thats primary. Secondary for me is I dont believe big pharma is what it was 20 years ago. The culture changes that have occurred are profound. I dont trust big pharma at all now. I trusted them marginally 20 years ago. The fact that they have capped liability for vaccines at $250k just makes me trust them less. No ones going to jail if they produces vaccine that screws people up. There not getting hurt in their pocketbook eithor. So the only thing that ensures a individuals safety is belief in their character. I guess im not very trusting when it comes to corporations injecting things into my body. Ill take my chances with Shi’s lab abomination.
A bigger issue is that the medical shamans have been set up as entities that are not subject to the law that balances police powers vs civil liberties. This is very concerning if we value a balanced society.
“If you don’t bother to read before getting a shot or letting your kid get the shot, that’s your choice.”
Wow I have the right to read or not read the pamphlet but not the right to refuse a corporation injecting me and my kids with their witches brew! Hurrah!
Logical fallacy as usual Duncan. Nice to see you are true to form. Wouldn’t want you to disappoint us by saying something sensible. 🙂
Just because someone is hesitant to take one vaccine, it doesn’t follow that they are against all vaccines. I know it’s difficult after all the drugs you’ve been abusing yourself with ever since Woodstock, but please try to ponder that simple fact.
Here is the latest Recommended Child and Adolescent Immunization Schedule for ages 18 years or younger, United States, 2020.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/hcp/imz/child-adolescent.html#birth-15
At least 26 shots between the ages of 0 and 18 months.
At least 30 more shots between ages 18 months and 18 years.
https://pics.me.me/iam-altering-the-schedule-pray-i-dont-alter-it-any-53931129.png
The CDC also recommends health professionals to: “Administer recommended vaccines if immunization history is incomplete or unknown.” It seems you can’t have too much of a good thing!
Is it just the US that has so many recommended vaccines?
Seems a bit… over the top.
I posted on ZH yesterday https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-05-20/defender-child-sex-trafficker-epstein-supports-forced-vaccinations not to discuss Epstein or Dershowitz but to advance the layman’s (I am a retired physician who was screwed by the system) legal argument of forcing people to have to accept vaccinations. I could see the “for the greater good of society” argument if the vaccine was safe, reliable, and efficacious but there is no evidence that it is or will be. Assuming that some of the toxic byproducts exist or that the vaccine is not even effective once it is available, even for free, requiring people to submit to it enters into the realm of physical assault, just as if someone punched you in the mouth.
My body, my choice.
The solution for corona.
But to easy and to cheap.
https://open.lbry.com/@Kalcker:7/100-Recovered-Aememi-1:7?t=0
or directly: andreaskalcker.com/en/
Andereas Kalcker is a physician who claims he has cured over 100 patients with COVID-19 with a treatment based on Chlorine Dioxide (ClO2). This is the substance used to clean bags used for blood donations. Used in small quantities, it seems to be perfectly safe, according to Dr. Kackler. It is not the same thing as bleach.
His research has been taken down from the internet and otherwise disparaged because it would provide an inexpensive solution to our current problem, cutting out the interests of those who hope to make money from selling expensive drugs and vaccines.
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-warns-seller-marketing-dangerous-chlorine-dioxide-products-claim
FDA NEWS RELEASE
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Warns Seller Marketing Dangerous Chlorine Dioxide Products that Claim to Treat or Prevent COVID-19
“Despite previous warnings, the FDA is concerned that we are still seeing chlorine dioxide products being sold with misleading claims that they are safe and effective for the treatment of diseases, now including COVID-19. The sale of these products can jeopardize a person’s health and delay proper medical treatment,” said FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn, M.D. “We continue to take action and keep up our efforts to monitor for fraudulent treatments during this public health emergency and remind the public to seek medical help from their health care providers.”
Be wary of snake oil salesmen with potions to treat covid-19. I suggest waiting for something thoroughly tested and approved by high level institutions.
Wow. The FDA say it. I’ m impressed. Yeah!
But – I’m sure , I will not stop taking CDS. It helps me, specially against my arthritis, – in days.
And when I get the Coronavirus – I hope god will prevent that – taking CDS will my first action.
Gail imagines, “It is not the same thing as bleach.”.
When it hits a source of water – like your body – then yes, it is exactly bleach. Exactly.
If you have ever been exposed to it, as I have, you know it is no fun.
Sorry, chemistry is not my field.
“Peru seemed to be doing everything right. Its president, Martín Vizcarra, announced one of the earliest coronavirus lockdowns in Latin America on 16 March…
“But more than two months later the country is one of the region’s worst-hit by Covid-19 and has been unable to flatten the curve of infections. Peru now ranks second only to Brazil in Latin America with 104,020 confirmed cases and a death toll of 3,024 according to official figures on Tuesday.”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/may/20/peru-coronavirus-lockdown-new-cases
“Social distancing is keeping people off the streets of central Rio de Janeiro.
“And that has created serious challenges for its trans sex workers, who have seen their clientele, and their income, melt away.”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/may/21/if-i-dont-have-sex-ill-die-of-hunger-covid-19-crisis-for-rios-trans-sex-workers
“Colombia on Wednesday followed in Argentina’s footsteps and imposed one of the toughest travel bans in the world to fight the coronavirus pandemic, saying no international passenger flights will be allowed until August 31.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/colombia-joins-argentina-banning-international-flights-200520180104411.html
Columbia and Argentina seem to be doing a whole lot better in terms of COVID-19 cases and deaths than Peru, Brazil, and Chile.
Still, tiny totals, comparatively, in a ghastly little country where the real problem is poverty and corruption.
Colombia is an interesting place—
Bogota is like being in Europe,
I had a passport expire there, and the US would not issue me a new one.
(Long story- eventually got back to Costa Rica on the sly and got it taken care of)
Anyway, it is not for everyone, but I like it.
Peru doesn’t look terribly out of line, when compared to Brazil and Chile. Perhaps what is wrong is our expectations.
More infections is good … closer to herd immunity…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm
OMG – 3000+ already sick and half dead old people have died in Peru…. there is upside to burning off the dead wood
3000?
The US killed 500,000+ children in Iraq…
Thank you FE it is so hard for the west to remember the mass murders they commit.
The east has done a fairly decent job as well… the Khan boys were epic murderers….
On the bright side… coming soon to all humans
http://www.ko-creative.com/images/Retribution_Web.jpg
Britain’s highly rated disease preparation failed on coronavirus – possibly because ministers followed a plan for flu
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/did-the-uk-government-prepare-for-the-wrong-kind-of-pandemic
Britain didn’t do anything right. i have a relative who works in a hospital and it’s an ongoing clusterf–k. The non-medical staff are institutionalised and mostly useless. Politics and BS run the place. The medical staff get persecuted if they report dare anything out of order.
The normal patients are mostly old and/or obese/diabetic etc. Once they fall into the clutches of the medical system they’re screwed.
The hospitals were emptied of the already sick who went into aged-care homes to clear the way for “thousands of COVID patients” who never materialised. Loads of the expelled patients died.
Yes, the UK got everything backward. You prioritise your warriors (business and workers who run the economy) first as strategy. Everything (except energy) is secondary to the economy. Healthcare depends on what the economy can afford. If you stall the economy, you have less money for the health services later. So you prioritise the economy and having secured that, as a high secondary aim you turn your firepower on saving those who do get ill.
But we prioritised those who might get sick – many didn’t. Everything has been done arse-about-face. Churchill would never have run his Second World War campaigns like that – he had to take some painful decisions and take some casualties in order to have fewer casualties later.
The expelled patients then may be part of the spike in death rates.
Both countries have executed the CDP perfectly…. they have completely confused their populations leaving blubbering and cowering…
What the psychologists found was that eventually the puppy just gave up and sat passively in the centre of the cage no longer responding at all to shocks or to rewards. The puppy just gave up.
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2020/05/11/lockdown-learned-helplessness/
The last paragraph of the Guardian article says:
Stockpiling Tamiflu isn’t the right approach.
I am not sure following China would be helpful either, however. No one understood how dreadful the result would be of closing businesses of all kinds. This was a first-time test of the lockdown approach. Doing something this radical, for this long, without thinking through the consequences didn’t make sense either. Isolating sick people makes sense. Closing down whole economies does not.
Closed down indeed.
I made a foray into our city centre today, which is usually packed-out.
The only shops open were two supermarkets, with about 4 people standing 6ft apart outside each one waiting to go in; one dismal Chinese restaurant doing take-aways and with two old men seated in the front window eating; and about 4 coffee, ice-cream and fast food stalls in the street or the old market place. The ‘Authentic Paella’ man looked as though the wanted to shoot himself.
Many have been totally cleared and boarded up (possibly after vandalism, not sure). The deadness of this is hard to convey when it goes on for several streets.
At what point does it become viable to re-open? ‘Safe’ so that staff can’t sue for illness caused by working conditions, and people feel confident about entering? No staff that I saw had either masks or gloves.
What I saw makes a nonsense of the bureaucratic notion of a ‘graduated re-opening’.
By way of contrast, all building sites were back up and running, the whirring of angle grinders was almost the only sound!
We are here — only it’s happening in full colour…
https://s.thestreet.com/files/tsc/v2008/photos/contrib/uploads/cefd2248-8e94-11e8-9c19-97ddb835432b.jpg
https://capx.co/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/great-depression.jpg
The psychologists really know how to break the backs of communities and crush all spirit…
Everyone’s just waiting to die now …. but they don’t realize it
I know the horse has bolted, but could we please have some pushback here before we return to lockdown again.
Ferguson is a clown (with a shocking set of juggling skills based on his comprehensive history of failure), and the clowns are running the circus.
Apologies if this has been posted; I been working again!!
‘….the software issues underpinning the model could be ‘the most devastating software mistake of all time’.
‘Since publication of Imperial’s microsimulation model, those of us with a professional and personal interest in software development have studied the code on which policymakers based their fateful decision to mothball our multi-trillion pound economy and plunge millions of people into poverty and hardship. And we were profoundly disturbed at what we discovered. The model appears to be totally unreliable and you wouldn’t stake your life on it’
‘…..it is fundamentally unreliable. It screams the question as to why our Government did not get a second opinion before swallowing Imperial’s prescription.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/why-covid-19-model-inspired-uks-lockdown-may-be-most-devastating-software-mistake-all
The article talks about
In the self-organizing economy, however, changing anything does tend to change everything. There are feedback loops everywhere. If we add this problem to the problem at the time the program was written of not really understanding how the virus causing COVID-19 operates (such as, what percentage of people who catch the disease have symptoms; what percentage die; how long the disease is transmissible; precisely how the disease is transmitted), it is mostly a garbage in, garbage out model whatever language it is written in, I am afraid.
Which makes me think this article is an attempt to [mis]direct blame, as even a very good model fed garbage data will of course produce garbage results. And most of the early Covid data was about as trashy as could be.
I suppose saying, “Garbage in, garbage out,” would have been much too blunt.
“As hunger rises, so does the potential for widespread episodes of contentious politics, including protests, mob activity, and both violent and nonviolent mobilizations against governments…
“Food is expansively traded cross-nationally, which generates a world price that is typically indexed in U.S. dollars (still the currency that is most used internationally, by far). Changes to the value of the greenback have the potential to move a wide range of prices around the world, including the price of food.
“And the value of the U.S. dollar is most influenced by the actions of the Federal Reserve.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/20/food-price-spikes-and-social-unrest-the-dark-side-of-the-feds-crisis-fighting/
Well we had the Arab Spring, during which colour revolutions and social unrest were closely reportd by the approved establishment media.
Back then the ‘experts’ sought change (not ‘hopey changey man’ Obama regime type of change) to thwart a MENA region that was looking for some independance.
Now the social unrest may be coming closer to home and could lead to ‘The Euro-Spring’. Thats when the ‘mothered people of Euroland’ finally realise all them bureau-rats do not have the best interests of the little people anywhere on their agenda’s.
Here in NZ most people seem to want OGL (Our Great Leader) to be all things to all people as she opens the spigots wide and showers sectors of the economy (many of which I never knew existed) with sunshine, moonbeams and rewarding-smiles.
Just waiting for a whole pile of TV monitors to pop up everywhere with her concerned but caring look on them; dependant on us ‘behaving nicely children’.
If you said that – more or less – to a true Ardern believer in NZ, would they punch you?
I see a 4-day week is being proposed, freeing Kiwis up to indulge in some local tourism (isn’t that just called going for a walk?).
The crux must be can Ardern stave off mass redundancies?
It;s an entertaining socio-economic experiment, and we are agog to see just what happens next in NZ.
First off you can’t call her Ardern… everyone calls her ‘Jacinta’…. NZers on first name basis with G3T…
Just thinking about that cat who was arrested for sending ‘Jacinta’ 80+ emails… and I it occurred to me that they did not block this guy because they wanted to demonstrate how accessible the PM is…
Look — you can email Jacinta directly with your concerns… this guy did many times… but then he was got a bit out of hand so we had to put a stop to that …. as NZers we all understand that enough is enough…. naughty children must be dealt with
This is what PR people do…. it’s actually a rather pathetic job.
I’m just waiting for the mortgage holiday… I’ll spend that on good French wine …
People who are poor, especially, become upset about the rising cost of food. It is easy to see the problem!
There’s a great saying: “When people lose everything and have nothing else to lose, THEY LOSE IT”.
Gerald Celente has been ringin’ that bell a long time…
Not really: on the whole they get drunk, take drugs and just suck it up.
I think you’re right about that… particularly when they have been scared out of their minds by the MSM and think they are going to die from The Plague.
The protests we have seen are very minimal… in the Philippines where there as a very restrictive lockdown… the cattle are obeying…. keep in mind it’s even easier to get an automatic weapon or handgun in the Phils than in the US… yet nobody is locking and loading and having a go at the police or military.
If the military is willing to shoot to kill and they demonstrate that… most people will back down realizing it is a losing battle. A few might go out of their minds and run wild but they’d be shot down like feral dogs….
This is another advantage of using Covid as a cover… there is zero chance of the military refusing to shoot ‘Covid iots’ or come over to their side … they will even shoot their brothers if need be — because ‘Covid iots’ are spreading The Plague and murdering the children.
Civilians can not stand against military. What form of sharp stick they have does not matter. They can obey, hide or die or some combination of the above. A sharp stick does not allow you to prevail. It does allow you to die a free human. These sort of things tend to mean less in light of a sucking chest wound.
I was in a third world country once and the police shot a man in the head. The body was hauled off. The shopkeeper swept the brains into the street. BAU. It made a impression on me.
Most people given a choice will choose to be on the right side of a apache run or a jdam. The real world is not that glamorous. Brains in gutter vs riding into sunset. Philosophical issues are seen in a new light. People have to be pushed very far to walk into a hay baler. The hay baler just makes another bale. BAU. A large portion of the energy from fossil fuels has been spent making very good hay balers. That embodied energy will be around for a moment or two.
In October I was following some black shirts at the HK protests who were besieging the TST police station (without much success)…
One young fellow had a plastic bag filled with some sort of liquid so I asked him what he had in the bag… he said paint… and that he was going to hurl it at the police …. I said why don’t you instead put sh it in the bag… or better still…. petrol …. he laughed and said … if we go too far and they feel in danger they will shoot us…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1QvK6m7yp4
Watch how quickly the mayhem stops when a single shot is fired…. now imagine what would happen if the military was called in and automatic weapons were unleashed…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcf4JJkpRr0
I am trying to walk in the shoes of a black shirt after reading about how China intends to violate the Basic Law altogether….
Join me….
Let’s imagine that we all live in NZ…. a country with a gr 3 teacher for PM… and the CCP .. seeing how weak the G3T is… and knowing that if any country tries to help G3T … we just shut them out of the China market and they will turn a blind eye…
CCP tosses out G3T and installs a puppet… they strip our rule of law and freedom of speech…they block access to all foreign media (that would be ok except that they force their own garbage down our throats)..
How would you react to this? I know I would definitely not accept living under this regime… and I’d pick up a rifle…
But the regime is all powerful and armed resistance is futile …
Throw in the fact that housing is so ridiculously expensive that I am living in a 200sf room that costs USD500k… I am breathing heavily polluted air… and now this Covid thing has smashed the economy and I am about to be left homeless because I have lost my job….
What would I do… I do like this slogan very much ‘We Burn – YOU BURN’….
Without a shred of doubt… what I would do … is I would burn the fkkkking place to the ground. I would toss matches into dry bush all day long … at night I would torch every commercial building in the city… I’d set petrol stations on fire… you name it … because living under a regime that runs concentration camps and sells the organs of its people … would not be an option…. I would rather be dead — but before I would die I would ruin the golden goose… I’d chop it’s head off … rip out its guts then burn it to a crisp….
Knowing full well that martial law is not a feasible response (assuming NZ was a key global financial hub)…. because that would only spark a global inferno…
The HK protesters understand fire…. they have burned many banks and pro China shops… but so far they have always cleared the way for the firefighters to put out the blazes before they get out of hand….
There hundreds of very old decrepit buildings in HK that would have minimal if any sprinkler systems….
There are millions of cars with nice juicy flammable rubber tires parked all over HK….
There are huge parklands that would prove tempting targets if there was an extended period with no rain…
Stealing the freedom of a group of people who have never experienced anything but freedom…. is impossible without severe repercussions… you can try to indoctrinate them (CCP has tried… the children have rejected their efforts)…. so you either end up beating them into submission (kill golden goose) … or you end up with terrorism….
Steam will find an outlet. If the pressure builds too much — the boiler explodes… and the entire machine can be destroyed.
HK is in a unique situation … in that martial law is not an option for the CCP…. and also because the vast majority of the population despise the CCP… they are a foreign invader.
The steam is building….
“”Unless we open up our economy, we have millions facing starvation.”
“That was the straightforward assessment of Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan on the impact of COVID-19 during a virtual meeting of the Forum’s COVID Action Platform on 20 May.”
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/millions-facing-starvation-global-political-and-business-leaders-on-the-economic-impact-of-covid-19/
“Lebanon is at risk of a major food crisis and many Lebanese may soon find it hard to afford bread because of an acute financial crunch and the fall-out of COVID-19, the prime minister warned…
“Starvation may spark a new migration flow to Europe and further destabilize the region”, he said.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-lebanon-crisis-diab/lebanon-at-risk-of-major-food-crisis-pm-warns-idUKKBN22X0LG
“”Unless we open up our economy, we have millions facing starvation.”
Yes… that’s the plan… starvation. Nice of him to reiterate it
“It is 7am and hundreds of children have come out on this chilly morning to queue for a plate of porridge…
“The winding queue is a sign of the desperation that has gripped the populous township of Chitungwiza, on the outskirts of Harare, since Zimbabwe enforced national lockdown to prevent the spread of Covid-19, which has seen 46 cases and four deaths.”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/may/20/we-cant-turn-them-away-the-family-kitchen-fighting-lockdown-hunger-in-zimbabwe
“South Africa has marshalled huge resources towards preventing its poor from starving because of COVID-19, but undocumented citizens and stranded migrants face hunger as they slip through the net, aid workers say.
“Some 11,000 families waited for charity food parcels on Wednesday in a queue stretching for several kilometres outside South Africa’s capital Pretoria, with some lining up from 4.a.m.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-safrica-hungry/migrants-and-those-without-id-face-hunger-in-south-africa-idUKKBN22W2GX
“Chinese companies are facing a reality check after years of ramping up debt.
…potential investors are reassessing risks. “They’ve also grown more skeptical about the quality of Chinese issuers’ financial reporting.
“In one case, the China Securities Regulatory Commission found Kangde Xin Composite Material Group Co., a laminating film and equipment maker in Jiangsu province, had fabricated 11.9 billion yuan of profits during 2015-2018.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/why-chinas-debt-loaded-companies-face-a-reality-check/2020/05/20/073ce1aa-9ab3-11ea-ad79-eef7cd734641_story.html
“Entire cities [in China] have been sealed again, with citizens forced to quarantine for as many as 35 days and to undergo nucleic acid tests. In Shanghai, 20 people were forced to quarantine after one infection was detected on Monday – the first in two months.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/21/chinas-new-normal-lockdowns-lifted-amid-second-wave-beijing/
The 35-day (!)quarantine period is interesting, if the report is accurate.
This is fascinating, that China is quarantining people longer as we get increasing reports of variants of the virus with incubation times over 2 weeks long, and yet most of the world is still sticking to 14 day quarantine for travelers coming into the country.
This demonstrates the ‘problem’ with the lockdown strategy…. you cannot eliminate a virus globally … so you have to keep your borders sealed till it is eliminated globally … and locally… the minute you get a few new cases… you need to re-lock…
It is illogical… but not when the goal is to run BAU Lite — and prep for extinction. Then it makes total sense — the last thing the PTB is any sort of recovery.
https://media.bizj.us/view/img/5716391/heart-beat-flatline*750xx3848-2165-0-213.jpg
“Lifting social distancing requirements in order to reopen the economy is a false promise, according to Rebucci. An economic depression is inevitable, he believes, and the financial future of the country is unlikely to resemble the economy of the past. Instead, he says, in order for the U.S. economy to recover, the public needs an end to the pandemic.
“”What businesses and customers need to return to normalcy is safety and the certainty that the health risks have been brought under control,” he says. “Until then, it is difficult to see how we can go back to the new normal with adjustments here and there, relative to our pre-COVID-19 consumption habits and business models.”
“He adds: “Reopening an infected economy is no shortcut” to financial recovery.”
https://phys.org/news/2020-05-economist-reopening-infected-economy-shortcut.html
“Reopening an infected economy is no shortcut” to financial recovery.”
Yep — the CBs have holed the ship… the passengers can come out of their cabins and have drinks… and pretend they will make it back to port… but this sucker is going DOWN.
That’s right, Bill Gates wants you DEAD.
It is amazing the amount of garbage that the Economist finds to print.
“… the economic pain has spread as infections balloon, and Russia, dependent on oil revenues for a third of its state budget, finds itself poorly-equipped to offer the sort of economic support programs provided in the West.”
https://www.marketscreener.com/news/Russia-s-Economy-Suffers-Double-Hit-from-Oil-Slump-and-Coronavirus–30641493/
“Vladimir Putin’s approval rate has fallen to historic low levels amid the Coronavirus pandemic, as the Covid-19 cases in Russia surpassed 300,000 on Wednesday.”
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/putins-approval-rate-lowest-in-20-years-as-covid-19-cases-in-russia-top-300k/
You’re wrong, we got support. My family will receive $140 as one time payment. It’s for the whole family. And this year (in October) I’ll get additional tax on my business (I have a small business), and must pay $3400 as one time payment. Yes, yes, ADDITIONAL $3400. It’s big LOL!
So, you’re supporting your familiy and many more? Here families are given also $140, but there are almost no new taxes, only one for the ultra rich (but it’s just pennies for the budget). It had also been suggested to tax supermarkets, as they are benefiting from lockdown as we can just mostly spend there. The local Amazon is doing fine as well
It’s been said, Russia is the only country in the world which fights against covid setting new taxes. I guess they are trying to extract all the revenue from private business and even more. 70% of business in Russia is state owned so no point to put new tax on it.
That’s not what the Media told me. The Media told me that after the Soviet Union collapsed everything was privatized.
“Japan’s exports fell the most since the 2009 global financial crisis in April as the coronavirus pandemic slammed world demand for cars, industrial materials and other goods, likely pushing the world’s third-largest economy deeper into recession.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-trade/japan-exports-fall-most-since-2009-as-pandemic-wipes-out-global-demand-idUKKBN22W3D0
“Up to 3.01 million jobs in Japan could be lost due to the new coronavirus pandemic in the year through next March… In fiscal 2009, the financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. led about 950,000 people to lose their jobs in Japan.”
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/05/7c9bafef2333-over-3-mil-jobs-could-be-lost-in-japan-due-to-coronavirus.html
“Only 2,900 foreign visitors entered Japan the month of April, a drop of more than 99.9% versus the year earlier, as the extent to which the coronavirus pandemic has frozen a once-booming tourism sector became clear.”
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200520_25/
Flying wastes precious oil….
Not as precious as it was, apparently.
“It’s wonderful,” say most of the locals who aren’t involved in tourism. “Kyoto is Kyoto again!”
The first quarter was really Japan’s second quarter of negative economic growth, putting it into recession, as I understand it.
Some positive news
The world can’t afford to keep the elderly alive.
“Turns out the public hospitals in #Sweden put elderly corona patients on pallative care (morphine, no water) to let them die in their sleep, before doctors even checked them. Swedes are only moderately upset.”
The Coronavirus has found every nursing home in Europe. A self organising organism.
Far, far better than the slow death ad degradation which comes with so many cancers and Alzheimers. Sensible and kind: but what was the qualifying age?
This will also have the affect of cutting healthcare costs and pension payments. I wonder what percentage of the no longer working sick would need to be no longer receiving benefits to make all those health and pension funds solvent again?
Quite a large percentage, I expect.
Hmm, I thought Swedes were meant to be all Hygge-huggy or whatever the term is,and philosophers of building wood fires and drinking coffee out of primitive wooden cups (actually, I think they are great) as a way to reach Enlightenment.
Starting to look rather more sinister……
They are eager for what was to’ve been spent on Anna to be earmarked for A’ishah. I’m going to be starting my Swedish Death Cleaning once I get the guide from Amazon.
I think “hygge” is more of a danish concept, meaning something like “have a nice time”. The swedes have “mys” meaning something like “cozy time”.
But the swedes are also famous for their “lagom” basically meaning not to overdo stuff. Fits really well with their “lagom” corona measures.
Nothing about Sweden is lagom.
Problem is, not that many people have actually died. 0.1% of total population? A larger % of the elderly obviously, but I’d guess still well under 1%.
Yes, still a none event.
I suspect Howard is on board with the CDP…..
Behind those plain yearnings, though, looms the specter of a system that appeared to be already foundering before Covid-19 entered the scene. There is, at least, considerable agreement that the disease catalyzed the disorders of finance and economy and accelerated the damage — just not among the people most responsible for engineering the fragilities that actually crashed things
Jerome Powell, Pope of the Church of the Federal Reserve, went on the 60-Minutes show last night to reassure the nation that things will eventually get back to normal. “I think you’ll see the economy recover steadily through the second half of this year.”
Yessir, if you say so. Were his fingers crossed? You couldn’t tell because the camera had him framed in a head-shot. Personally, I think the Fed Chairman was blowing smoke up the nation’s wazoo.
Spooky as it’s been, the Covid-19 virus has also been a great cover-story for the natural collapse of a severely unbalanced, ecologically unsound, and dishonestly represented set of arrangements that are now unspooling at horrifying speed. The car industry is dying. The airline industry is laying out its fleet of big birds in desert graveyards.
The college racketeering operation went off a cliff, along with medical profiteering. Agribusiness no longer has a business model. Hundreds of kinds of services no longer have customers who can afford their offerings from acupuncture to zymurgy. None of that will be fixed by injections of miracle money borrowed from ourselves in quantities that would turn every US citizen into a millionaire — if it wasn’t just pounded down the rat-holes of the stock and bond markets.
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/dance-macabre/
James Kunstler has a good way of putting things.
The BBC has excelled itself:
Coronavirus: Your tributes to those who have died
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52676411
Makes a change from tributes to those still alive.
Goebbels would have been proud.
Needless to say, ‘Your’ does not include me.
Ha ha… why no pictures of the average person who dies from Covid?
https://images.huffingtonpost.com/2015-09-21-1442878757-3374643-obese-thumb.jpg
Because it doesn’t fit the narrative…that Covid 19 targets everyone. And if you notice the MSM and Politicians love..love..love to HIGHLIGHT when a child or someone who has NEVER had a preexisting conditions die because of Covid 19 and that’s because it’s rare. Of course they never mentioned if the individual died “from” or “with” Covid 19.
But yeah let’s forget about the elderly, the obese and all those with preexisting conditions. That just muddies the waters.
If you are young and die from covid (or the flu) you had about the same odds of winning the lottery…
True !
http://img.koreatimes.co.kr/upload/newsV2/images/202003/76064dd5774c4a4f84a23be19adc0787.jpg
Unfortunately, right!
https://www.chappatte.com/prod/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/L200304ce-small-1100×721.jpg
https://i2.wp.com/mackaycartoons.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2020-03-11.jpg
https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/kenoshanews.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/75/675c5596-263e-5759-bc9b-8ea92eee7f51/5e751ade8c718.image.jpg
Prime minister says flexible working options can boost productivity and domestic tourism and improve work/life balance
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/jacinda-ardern-flags-four-day-working-week-as-way-to-rebuild-new-zealand-after-covid-19
Not sure how this works … I assume you get paid 20% less if you work only 4 days…. great way to reduce oil consumption….
That can be the only logical reason why she is suggesting this…
Using her logic we should work only 1 day per week.
A free day to go begging?
NZ can now join Trump and the US in offering us all free entertainment at the End of the World Show.
It will be a pity when the net goes down and all one knows about is local news.
Was reading an article earlier about the bars opening… in Wellington the bar owners are begging people to go out and have a drink as it is VERY quiet… RNZ attributes it to people ‘being afraid to go out or conditioned to stay home’
No mention of the fact that people are broke and not going to go to a bar and blow 12 bucks on a beer…
Also no mention that with all the distancing bs and temperature checks… that ruins the experience… ‘hey baby… how’d you get past the temperature check…. you are so hot!’
We’ve been out twice since L2 started… once for dinner once for a chalice of wine… all that was missing were the dead bodies on gurneys… I can see why people prefer to stay home…
not having money=scared.
making more money off the dole than working at a “Essential” job for low wages= scared.
” I can see why people prefer to stay home…” Since they don’t REALLY want things to go back to normal…don’t REALLY want the economy to recover… I can see why they would still continue with many of the lockdown rules…to DISCOURAGE people from participating in events outside their home. Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves must be nearly depleted at this point.
I will be amending the CDP this weekend to reflect the shift to this BAU Lite development….
BAU Lite tastes like Bud Lite …. bland… like watered down beer….
All these streaming “TV” services are coming up. It’s the end of the world. There is absolutely nothing worth watching on these tv streaming services. They have a politician producing shows. They have a former UN ambassador on the board of directors at one of one of those streaming tv services companies which says all that needs to be said about streaming services.
The streaming tv services company release statement on hiring someone who works in politics “For decades, she has tackled difficult, complex global issues with intelligence, integrity and insight and we look forward to benefiting from her experience and wisdom.” Entertainment.
What little I watch I download for free https://www.magnetdl.com/
Covid iot = a person who believes everything about the Covid flu that the MSM publishes.
Not only that… Covid io ts re-post all the MSM disinformation on OFW
And what do you call somebody who believes everything Q and “Fancy Bear” publish?
You are making FE’s point for him. People in general need to be less gullible and less inclined to simply accept whatever various authorities feed them.
And this applies in spades to people who want to turn everything into a “your side” Vs “my side” conflict. The entire setup where we are offered false alternatives that exclude other ways of approaching problems is itself one of the defining features of modern, conflict-creating, mass propaganda.
If every time someone says something, we check to see if it conforms to some off-the-shelf pre-digested belief system that we have been coached in, and if it doesn’t so conform then we get upset, personally offended or hot under the collar, then the propagandists have succeeded because it means that our emotions (mostly fears and herd-related feelings) have been engaged and our brains have been turned off.
People need to develop ways of making up their own minds about the likelihood that what they are being told is the truth, close to the truth, or otherwise. It isn’t easy.
What sort of mindset is required? First possess a general scepticism. Second (perhaps) some factual knowledge in the area in question (one doesn’t need to be an expert but one does have to check things out). Some basic knowledge of statistics, especially as the are used to spread BS. A sense of proportion. Sme histrocial knowledge in the area in question is often useful. An understanding of how large organizations work (most of their energies are devoted to preserving and expanding themselves. An understanding of human nature. I for example, believe very much in nature and very little in nurture. And I have a very practical or grounded theory of good and evil as it relates to human nature. It is not a cynical view but it wil provokek mwe to lo at certain tings with a sceptical eye: like Saint Greta for example.
And we could all add other important features in creating a kind of sceptical heuristic for rough-and-ready personal use. It is a task we all have to set ourselves because it is personal. It would make worthwhile area of study, “How to be Rationally Sceptical” or “Basic Heuristics for Rule of Thumb Scepticism”.
Most of all – I almost forgot – we need the abillity to accept that we may be wrong and be able to change our minds. People who can’t change their minds can never be good thinkers.
Anyway, even a quick note like this shows that most people are not up to the task of developing, acquiring or managing even a few of these skills. So I don’t hold out much hope for masses of people of any background will ever do so. It is too hard, to much like hard work, and in any case might make them unhappy? After all, who wants to be outside the herd?
It changes the meaning of “herd inmunity”
good thinkers were necessary when building the system. Now, they are considered a threat to the system. Same thing with competent people. It is better to put the least qualified most gullible people in positions of influence… a lack of confidence…an uptick in skepticism would collapse BAU.
Except homo sapiens brains are not engineered for scepticism and analysis, but for belief and fast action.
In fact ,skepticism and inquisitiveness seem so rare our species as be seen as a mental aberration. Human beings in general want to believe in what is most convenient, most pleasant, most hopeful and easiest for themselves, and most popular among their neighbors.
Those of us that are sceptical etc…. are surely disadvantaged in certain situations … we suffer from an EXTREMELY RARE disease 🙂
I know a lot of people but not a single person who is sceptical about COVID 19 or where the economy is headed. Not one. This is probably the main reason why I have thought for a long time we were all doomed. Almost no-one is interested.
You would have thought if one thing might pique the general public’s interest it would have been ‘the end of oil’, but that clearly did not bother them much either. We deserve what is coming to us, a pity about the damage we are doing to the rest of life on Earth.
Recall from Century of Self … Bernay’s daughter says ‘he was a very difficult person … he thought everyone was st u pid’
He was right. The crowd is as easy to control as a flock of sheep…. just the sight of a dog and they stampede into their shed to hide…
As we are seeing with Covid (dog)… the reaction is the same…. SDR …
>>Recall from Century of Self … Bernay’s daughter says ‘he was a very difficult person … he thought everyone was st u pid’
Alas, when I saw / heard that I thought, now there is a like-minded person – very rare.
I liked him immediately!!!
That’s why advertising and propaganda works so well. When I was young, I was perplexed by how people could believe in what advertisers preached about their own products. How could they be that stoopid? But the fact is people want to believe in good things, good messages. In a way, people want to be lied to. We must have ingrained in out brains some compulsion to trust the others, as social animals that we are.
That’s why is so easy to deceive people. You only have to tell them what they want to hear: that this food made of sugar makes lose weight, that in two weeks you can learn three foreign languages while sleeping thanks to this new device, that this politician will bring prosperity, that our generals are fighting for democracy, that we belong to the good side, that it is possible to grow infinitely on a finite planet, etc.
Wall Street underestimating ‘tsunami’ hitting the economy and supply chains: Former Home Depot CEO
Robert Nardelli, former Home Depot CEO, warns on the economy. With CNBC’s Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Guy Adami, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso and Karen Finerman.
Wall Street never underestimates the amount of money that the Fed will send their way (overtly and covertlly) to prop up the markets…
and…
perhaps the coming Q2 depression level economic numbers are already “priced in”…
if so, when Q3 months start to show tiny increases in economic activity, the markets will probably zooom to new highs…
“plunge protection” of markets is necessary to keep bAU creeping along…
No, they will sell off. Buy the rumour, sell the news. As if it matters. Zimbabwe had a record stock market whilst its economy was going down the toilet. Venezuala still does. Wanna live there?
Queenstown Collapse Update
Properties for rent are increasing — two weeks ago 170 – now 182…
https://www.realestate.co.nz/residential/rental?by=featured&lct=d300&ql=20
Normally there would be max 20 … all the Airbnb owners are dumping onto the long term market … desperate to get some income.
It’s not happening and it will not happen…
One has to wonder if NZ will follow Australia and offer 6 months payment free periods on mortgages.
Some of these properties look rather expensive i.e. over-priced. Same here in Aberdeen. Banners with for sale/ for rent in every street I walk along now. They used to be rare. Sellers unwilling to drop their prices, for now. Presumably the sellers are being advised ‘the market will return’.
This is what happens when people believe in the V…. they believe the old normal rules (and prices) apply … they fail to get ahead of the curve and drop the price enough to entice other fools who believe there will be a V … and they are unable to sell. The tourism does not materialize … and then they find themselves bankrupt….
Desperation continues to build as rates have now dropped well under 3%
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12333573
We have a renewal happening end of May… so was in touch with the bank… telling them to hold off until the last second:
FE : Thanks – let’s just see if any further reductions happen last minute… things are evolving fairly rapidly…
I am monitoring the Queenstown situation and note that short term accommodation is getting piled onto the long term sites – and its just sitting there… there were 170 two weeks ago and now 182…. No doubt many of these owners rely on Airbnb income to pay the bills….
I notice Australia has announced a mortgage holiday (to keep the market from imploding) …. I wonder if we’ll see similar desperate measures in NZ.
BANK: Haha all good, speak next week.
Haha as in FE is being silly suggesting there may be a mortgage holiday in NZ?
Haha as in I am starting to get a bit nervous because FE said recently that he only wants to pay interest because he has no desire to pay down an asset that is going to be worth a fraction of the current value (or have no value…) and the bank is going to collapse and I am not going to have a job…
We did have a interesting conversation on this topic in April — the bank’s concern was that I have to have a plan to pay back the principal….
To which I responded — come on mate — look at what’s happening here — you surely are much more in touch with how grim this is as your email kickback says you are overwhelmed with insolvencies… we can see where this is headed… its GFC on steroids…
Of course I can’t say I have no plan so I said — well if the bank gets bailed out we’ll organize principal payments…. if not we’ll get the cash to whichever entity picks up the mortgage paper…
I am thinking NZ will announce a mortgage holiday in the coming months… I am thinking that’s just going to delay the inevitable…. I am banking on KABOOM.
Thanks for your email. I am currently not checking my personal emails due to dealing with customers who are financially affected by Covid-19.
To all our customers, stay safe. We’re here to help & we appreciate your patience during this time.
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https://66.media.tumblr.com/a22b987704b43e3a3d166b819f697032/tumblr_inline_pipl8i5RMD1s460h4_1280.gif
This is the way you keep BAU on life support — you prevent a return to the good ol days… because we do not have the juice to float good ol days again ….
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/gamblers-flock-reopened-casinos-south-find-them-greatly-altered
If we tried to return I suspect we would have instant mega or even hyperinflation — then soon after — collapse.
It would be like forcing this fella 100m in 10 seconds…(or 60 seconds hehehe)
https://img.webmd.com/dtmcms/live/webmd/consumer_assets/site_images/article_thumbnails/other/sick_old_man_other/650x350_sick_old_man_other.jpg
Kind of off topic, but the world outdoor record for the 100m in the over-80 year old class is something like 14.4 secs for a man who is 86 years old. A Norwegian chap, I think.
That is astonishing. It certainly sets the mark for me.
lock down protests ERUPT in Europe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADuM80DRFCM
In the USA
well, the self-organizing system subdued the ongoing 2019 proetests by the spreading of the Cvirus…
now, the self-organizing system is producing proetests against the overreactions to the Cvirus…
it sure looks certain that the self-organizing system is self-organizing…
what next?
proetests about lack of food?
Looks like divide and rule knows how to self organise.
Leader for both camps will rise naturally and the puppet master will naturally rise as well.
Social diversity is social division.
A group of people constantly arguing and bickering amongst each other aren’t going to organize themselves to threaten the state. I would say something similar about attempts to introduce democracy in the Middle East.
https://observer.com/2020/04/amazon-whole-foods-anti-union-technology-heat-map/
City of Miramar, Florida employees protest furlough announcement
Group started petition that has more than 7,000 signatures
Miramar City Manager Vernon Hargray changed the timeline from six months of furlough to three a few days after the memo.
On Wednesday, yet another memo from Hargray that read: “Upon further discussion with staff, union reps, commissions and the public, I am exploring other alternatives outside of implement furloughs.”
Public safety unions had a lot to say about the talk of the furloughs, some even alleging mismanagement of funds.
Hargray and other city leaders have said that COVID-19, amid a decline in various tax revenues and fees for city services, made the furlough essential
https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/05/21/city-of-miramar-employees-protest-furlough-announcement/
Also, Rent evictions are coming in South Florida….the Rent relief program is ending…
I know that area pretty well. I used to live in Ft. Lauderdale which isn’t too far from there.
New coronavirus cases across the world jump by the most ever in a single day, WHO say
https://nnimgt-a.akamaihd.net/transform/v1/crop/frm/zKV39uP83GDBPxt8fzsPGX/da940e55-013e-4ae3-99bd-1411d4be2aec.jpg/r0_7_3348_1889_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg
The number of newly reported coronavirus cases worldwide hit a daily record this week with more than 100,000 new cases over the last 24 hours, according to the World Health Organization.
Almost two-thirds of the cases were reported in just four countries, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press conference Wednesday at the agency’s Geneva headquarters. “We still have a long way to go in this pandemic.”
The majority of new confirmed cases are coming from the Americas, followed by Europe, according to WHO’s daily report. The U.S. reported 45,251 new cases on Tuesday, according to the agency. Russia had the second-most reported cases Tuesday at 9,263, according to WHO…
An interesting read on Guatemala and psychological warfare, the Geds and even hinting on COVID19 (possibly behind the scenes psychological warfare?)
https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/05/11/operation-sulfatos/
Further thoughts on Geeetaaa and running BAU on life support….
BAU is on it’s last tank of gas…
Do you have the cattle go on joy rides to holiday destinations?
Do you encourage mass consumption?
Or do you throttle back… and focus on only the bare necessities?
https://fuel-pro.com/images/Fuel-pro_11,000_L_Fuel_Tank.jpg
Peak Shale Will Send Oil Prices Sky High
By Nick Cunningham – Feb 06, 2020
Much of the cheap oil has been produced, and the oil industry is increasingly relying on costly reserves. While the world is awash in supply right now, the market may begin to tighten up, forcing prices higher.
But the global economy will begin to sputter as a result of higher crude prices. “The current economic system cannot sustain oil prices above $100 a barrel, and engage in genuine growth in the real economy for very long,” warned the report, authored by Dr. Simon Michaux and published by the Geological Survey of Finland. “Alternatively, producers cannot sustain oil prices as low as $45 a barrel and still make a profit.”
That’s especially true of U.S. shale. Wall Street is taking an increasingly critical view of shale, an industry which has never been cash flow positive for any meaningful period of time.
As investors, banks and other forms of finance distance themselves from unprofitable shale drilling, the rate of bankruptcies is on the rise. Clearly, at least a portion of the global oil industry needs much higher prices in order to sustain growth. The production gains of the past decade were possible via cheap credit and an overcapitalized industry in North Dakota and Texas.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Peak-Shale-Will-Send-Oil-Prices-Sky-High.html
Peak Permian Oil Production May Arrive Much Sooner Than Expected
By Justin Mikulka • Monday, February 3, 2020
In mid-January, Adam Waterous, who operates the private equity firm Waterous Energy Fund, made a prediction about the crown jewel of the U.S. shale oil industry, the Permian shale play that straddles Texas and New Mexico.
“We think we are at or near peak Permian,” Waterous told Bloomberg. “The North American oil market has been grossly overcapitalized, which is not sustainable.”
Bloomberg reporter Simon Casey goes on to qualify that “[p]redicting peak Permian output for 2020 isn’t a mainstream view.” However, evidence is piling up that the U.S. shale industry may indeed be close to peaking as it runs out of the two things required to continue increasing oil production: money and what’s known as “tier one acreage.”
Tier one acreage is the term for the areas that produce the most oil per well. It’s also known as “sweet spots,” “core acreage,” or “good rock.”
https://www.desmogblog.com/2020/02/03/peak-permian-oil-production-schlumberger
Shale oil passed its peak without making money
FEBRUARY 15, 2020
Shareholders of Whiting Petroleum Corp. just had a wild week. A report of a potential debt repayment problem caused such volatile buying and selling of its shares that trading had to be halted five times last Wednesday.
Things calmed down when it became clearer that the company had money and time to deal with the debt coming due, yet Whiting shares were still down near their all-time low price of less than $3 per share. That’s quite a fall for a stock that touched $370 a share in 2014 at the peak of the shale oil frenzy in western North Dakota.
There’s gloom throughout the shale oil business. There was a boom in it a few years ago, big enough to be felt in Minnesota. But it might have been the first profitless boom in American business history.
And the reckoning is underway.
https://www.startribune.com/schafer-shale-oil-passed-its-peak-without-making-money/567884742/
And as these articles (and many similar ones…) dropped… COVID was being unleashed… made in a lab in Wuhan… and purposely spread just prior to Chinese New Year…
And the CDP — planned years in advance — was off to the races.
https://multicreativeme.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/connect-the-dots.jpg
Give it to me straight Eddy how much longer do us lowly cattle got? I’ve been on the tinfoil train since as far back as I can remember, but I have a hard time understanding how current events comprise the master minded CDP. If they planned the shutdown to disenfranchise and ultimately cull the herd, why are they trying everything they can to keep us all from killing each other? Wouldn’t they want us to go all mad max mode while they scurry off to their lavish bunkers? How is the current predicament benefiting their long-laid plans? What difference does a year or two of stifled revenue make for them? They’ve already got access to all the money and physical resources they need.
I’ve explained it so that a 7 year old could understand … if you don’t get it … you will never get it
buy silver the poor mans gold this is the only way out for us if you want a positive rate of return on your currency we are heading into the bizzaro world of negative interest rates
also if you have a high mortgage thats good news it will serve you well it will make you money once negative interest rates go higher and that will happen due to the dissipative nature of our economic system
this is the future it will transform the world for the few that remain https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/20/uk-sells-government-bond-with-negative-yield-for-first-time-coronavirus
Herd immunity as a strategy when dealing with a virus that’s as tenacious as this one is about as effective as using mud for brake pads.
Sweden becomes country with highest coronavirus death rate per capita
https://img.rasset.ie/00141daf-800.jpg
Despite a high death rate, Swedish officials are adamant their strategy is viable in the long term, with their restrictions likely to be in place longer than in other countries
This fight against Covid-19 is a marathon,” Prime Minister Stefan Löfven said recently, adding that his officials “strongly believe” their measures are viable for the long haul.
While people in other European countries have gradually begun returning to their workplaces in recent weeks, Swedes have been strongly advised to continue working from home, and possibly not just for weeks, but for months to come….
the mantra will later become for the next few years
They have a immune rate of up to 20% of the population(stockholm). Thats got to bring the Ro down. Certainly places that have locked down do not have anywhere near that high of percentage of immune people. If herd immunity isnt the answer what is? Hiding in place waiting for a vaccine that may never be available? Emerging from lock downs only to go back into them because no herd immunity was developed because of the lockdown? Those dont seem like good “brakes” to me. Looks to me like sweden is actually putting the brakes on not hiding in the back seat hoping the vehicle will stop.
https://www.thelocal.se/20200520/heres-what-swedens-first-coronavirus-antibody-tests-tell-us?utm_source=piano&utm_medium=onsite&utm_campaign=71&tpcc=se-latest
Immunity rate of up to 20% in Stockholm? And how do you know that?
There is no herd immunity without a vaccine. Since there’s never been one developed for coronaviruses, then this and related strains will keep going round and round, taking more and more people, plus decimating what’s left of the economy that’s still viable from the consequences of our serial bubble blowing.
There is no effective solution since even taking your chances results in societal mayhem too. All leaving it to nature to deal with does is bring you closer to ultimate collapse, as your health system breaks down from the strain. It’s just lucky that Sweden has a good health system. But for how long?
psile: “there is no herd immunity without a vaccine..” WTF does that even mean? We are naturally immune to untold numbers of virii.
Why will it go ’round and ’round taking MORE people? Most likely the sickest ones are enough, and everyone else can go about their business. It’s not like musical chairs or something.
Remember those crappy siblings and bullies and older kids who’d grab your hand and punch you, saying “why are you hitting yourself?!?” That’s what the difference is of letting Nature take its course. We at least then don’t have the humiliation factor of watching the [gov] bullies pummel us in the face with “our own” fists.
Not to coronaviruses.
If this was not a CDP… this would have been how the world responded
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm
If the world stays locked down (and it will) Sweden’s death rate/totals… will be a flea on a donkey’s pecker….
I would agree with Bolsonaro and Burry …. however I am privy to the CDP and I believe lockdowns are a great idea – they do nothing to mitigate this flu — but they are really good for conditioning the cattle so that they do not rip my face off and chew on my leg when this sh it sho w ends.
Lock down. Stay Safe. Report your Neighbour. Shoot to Kill Anyone who Dares.
Potentially, the policy would reduce everyone who has been locked-down to the state of the Irish peasants who died quietly in their wretched huts during their great famine. They shut their own doors too…..
If that’s the plan then I am actually ok with it… however I can still recall my mate’s goofy smile when each time he dropped a Fenty during his final days with cancer…
I asked him what kind of pill he was taking … when he said ‘Fentanyl’… I made mental note… ahhh… that the stuff I’ve heard so much about … no wonder so many people get hooked…
I wish I had contacts to be able to buy some black market stuff… apparently just a little goes a long way
Just 2 to 3 milligrams of this drug can kill a person. It blocks opioid receptors and its most dangerous side effect — like other opioids — is respiratory depression, which can quickly lead to coma and death.
https://www.drugs.com/illicit/fentanyl.html
The Irish actually died from disease in greater numbers than from malnutrition. Round here, even the local lord in his big house went down with typhus. Presumably the servants brought it in, but it wasn’t only the destitute who died.
Highest per capita rate, but aren’t they mostly the elderly, and in care homes, in Sweden?
All these stats are fairly useless as information unless broken down by age, social class and race.
If most deaths occur among the elderly retired -especially those already totally incapacitated in care homes – or the poor and unemployed, it is no obstacle to a functioning economy, in fact a gain (and a release from misery for those who pass away.)
And a greater sense of perspective is needed: the deaths are really very modest in number, in absolute terms, in even the worst-hit countries.
I would say that the EU consensus is now to re-open in a desperate – and probably futile – attempt to undo the economic damage caused by the lock-downs, just as long as deaths remain sufficiently low and any increases are in low % points – 50 or so per day is probably the psychological limit.
Who knows if these are accurate… they indicate mostly very old people die
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/
“Just 45 percent of Republicans now said they favour stay-at-home orders, while about as many are opposed. A month ago, 70 percent of Republicans backed them. Among Democrats, 78 percent favour stay-at-home orders, down from 91 percent in April.
“Only about a third of Republicans said they are very or extremely concerned about the possibility of additional infections if restrictions are lifted, compared with three-quarters of Democrats.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/coronavirus-deaths-brazil-reach-daily-record-live-updates-200519232823246.html
This is why the Global eCONomy is never coming back to pre Covid 19 levels !
“Ford Temporarily Shuts Down Two Plants Just Days After Reopening After Workers Test Positive For COVID-19”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ford-temporarily-shuts-down-two-plants-just-days-after-reopening-after-workers-test
Its a nightmare. Ford a juicy lawsuit target for unsafe workplace. If Sheryl is running welder bot # xs19 and she tests positive can joe run it? Joe is torquing bolt #5654 to spec who does that? Not that anyone will have $ to buy new cars anyway. HR will keep those plants shut until lawsuit protection is legislated. Does Ford have their trace vector procedures and paperwork in place for those employees who tested positive to CYA? Nightmare.
BAU LITE is the new normal or the world will be operating on a less energy system the covid virus and human nature will see to that
It does appear that BAU Lite is possible — as BAU Lite is the new normal — who would have thought we could crash the auto and airline industries down to near zero — and still put food on the table…
The question is — for how long?
Never underestimate the el der s.
BAU Lite is possible as long as the CB’s are cranking out digitized money to keep the system running, ” just barely”. It all stops when the CB’s crank out SO much digitized money that it all becomes worthless. Then the entire planet has their magical lightbulb go off above their heads with that dreaded WTF look on their faces.
maybe…
I’m sure the CB operators have a good idea about what their vast array of bizzzarre manipulations do to the economy… they manipulated the world through the 2008/2009 crisis…
but this is one of the big worries for the potential of total collapse… that their manipulations will get out of control and the economy will enter a death spiral…
though they know full well that money supply (in the hands of the consuming public) can’t move too much higher than the supply of real products, or else hyperinflation…
at this point in time, I don’t think the CBs have to concern themselves much with any probability of hyperinflation… they know that most of their digital money creation is not going to ever get into public hands…
prices of essentials (food mainly) are inflating…
prices of most non-essential products will be deflating…
as long as this pair self-organizes in a fairly balanced way, there will be no hyperinflation…
and this is all entirely necessary for the economy to reset at a lower level…
‘but this is one of the big worries for the potential of total collapse… that their manipulations will get out of control and the economy will enter a death spiral…’
They are in completely uncharted waters and have teams of men with long poles probing for reefs…
End of the day it’s moot — the ship is going to sink soon … all they are doing now is trying to delay it a little longer… if they smash into a jagged rock and tear the guys out of her… oh well….
https://a57.foxnews.com/images.foxnews.com/content/fox-news/world/2013/03/13/abandoned-russian-cruise-ship-remains-adrift-in-north-atlantic/_jcr_content/par/featured-media/media-1.img.jpg/0/0/1422517118466.jpg
Well, trucking is still going – numerous supermarket trucks and logistics lorries passed me today at sunrise when doing the dog walking.
Agricultural machinery still functioning, they were at work this week into the night.
When does the disruption and factory closures hit the timely supply of spare parts without which all the machines can’t roll? Not to forget sewage plants, water pumping, the grid….
That’s the key question now.
A pizzeria owner made money buying his own $24 pizzas from DoorDash for $16
https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/18/21262316/doordash-pizza-profits-venture-capital-the-margins-ranjan-roy
there is more than one way to skin a cat
you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it sink…
WSJ. Interesting how when they expose something … they blame it on politics… and their readers then attribute everyone illogical response to Covid to ‘politics’… blaming Trump or the Democrats… take your pick.
This is the magician at work (Bernays)…. distraction….
A Political Assault on Antibody Tests
If a positive test doesn’t indicate immunity, how in the world did patients ever recover from infection?
Tests for Covid-19 antibodies are now available, but news reports suggest—and some physicians are advising their patients—that antibodies may not provide immunity. This assertion defies generations of immunology research and is a political attack on reliable tests.
Here’s how the immune system works: On viral infection, it reacts with two surges, “innate” and “adaptive” immunity. The innate response comes within minutes to hours and triggers alarms that result in effects across the body such as fever. Tissues and cells produce “interferons,” molecules that incapacitate many viruses and recruit white blood cells.
For mild infections, innate responses are sufficient to defeat the foe. But some viral infections require a second wave of response, and adaptive immune responses arrive four or five days after infection. Molecular bits of the offending pathogen, known as antigens, are brought to the lymph nodes, where white blood cells called T and B lymphocytes respond. These lymphocytes head out to the front lines—the infected tissues, such as the lung for Covid-19. The wave of T cells that arrive at the battlefront deploy the principal weapon in their arsenal, the release of cytotoxins, to kill virally infected cells. The over-aggressive immune response causes much of the devastation in severe cases of the disease.
Meanwhile, B cells pump out antibodies that over several weeks adapt to the pathogen. After the war is over, a few T and B cells linger in the lymph nodes and in the mucosa of the airways, forming an “immunological memory” that is programmed to fight faster and stronger the next time that pathogen shows up. Such cell memory provides “protective immunity,” which Thucydides first hypothesized in 430 B.C.
There is not a straightforward test to pick up the T-cell response during infection, nor for the presence of memory afterward. But the presence of antibodies can be detected from a blood sample using a serologic assay. For decades, these tests have been used as proof of immune response, a proxy for a vanquished invader, arising from either infection or vaccination.
Antibody tests come in two broad forms. One is the lateral flow kit, which works like home pregnancy tests and can be used at a doctor’s office for rapid results.
The other is the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, or Elisa, which are typically run in a lab. Used appropriately, both of these antibody tests can provide valuable information. A lateral flow kit is rarely as sensitive as the lab test. But in a survey looking for antibodies as evidence of past infection in hundreds or thousands of people, the test is reliable enough to yield information about the progression of the pandemic, the infection rate in a population, and the fatality rate.
The laboratory-based tests authorized by the Food and Drug Administration for emergency use—those from Abbott, Ortho Clinical Diagnostics, Roche and others—are excellent. Several tests have published sensitivity and specificity values as high as 99.6% to 100%. These tests are consistent with other antibody tests, such as those for mononucleosis and hepatitis infections, that are in routine use without much concern about their accuracy.
Given the reliability and performance of these tests, it appears to be politics, not science, that is behind the claim that the presence of specific antibodies in those who’ve recovered from Covid-19 doesn’t indicate protective immunity. This is baffling. If it’s true, how does anyone recover from a severe infection?
If these antibodies aren’t protective, then global efforts to develop a vaccine are pointless. Vaccines try to arm T and B cells so they fight quickly when exposed to the virus. If antibodies detected in a person who has recovered don’t confer immunity, then neither would antibodies developed in response to a vaccine. The far more likely scenario, which is true of other coronaviruses, is that antibodies do offer protection for a significant duration, so that a successful vaccine could be developed.
Fear has arisen from the finding that antibody levels fall over time. But that is observed in every response to infection or vaccination. The memory of B cells means the body can produce antibodies when needed in the future. If levels of protective antibodies didn’t wane rapidly after infections, the blood would become thick with antibodies over a typical winter season. What isn’t known: Will immunity last a lifetime? Or, like tetanus, will it require a booster a decade later? Or will it require a seasonal shot as new strains emerge, as with influenza?
Many have suggested using an “immunity passport” system—a license to return to work—while awaiting an effective vaccine. It’s a terrible idea. It would create a perverse incentive to get infected intentionally to escape the lockdown—the opposite of the public-health goal. And it’s plainly discriminatory and violates American health privacy traditions. Immunity passports have no place in a free society.
Still, you should consider talking to your physician and getting tested for antibodies if you suspect a prior infection, or if you wish to participate in a seroprevalence survey. Our understanding of the disease has been improved by seroprevalence studies in cities like Robbio, Italy, and Gangelt, Germany, and in states such as California and New York. Many other such antibody studies are under way. Furthermore, antibody testing is the only way to identify convalescent serum donors for treatment of severely ill patients, and it is also required to qualify for some vaccine trials.
So far the data have shown Covid-19 is more widespread and thus less lethal than previously thought. More antibody data will enable better policy. These accurate and sensitive tests should be made widely available, not disparaged.
Dr. Butte is an associate professor and chief of pediatric allergy, immunology and rheumatology at UCLA’s David Geffen School of Medicine. Mr. Bogan, a molecular biologist, is managing member of Bogan Associates LLC.
Given that in a certain percentage of cases covid has used antibodies to attack the heart is a vaccine still such a hot idea even if it was perfect?
One thing is clear we are setting up to have lots of testing because of lack of clarity whether immunity really exists for covid. Probably at least once a day for working people. If the armies precedent that anyone that ever had covid is not to be accepted into service is adopted by the private sector what does that mean? Disability status is dependent on your not able to do work, not that you have been classified untouchable. It would really seem we are headed toward yet another division those who have had, those that have, and those that have never had. The new apartheid. Its clear that those who have been infected must have a tattoo so they can be identified.
Remember, you only have to wear the badge of shame if you have tested positive for COVID-19. If you are never tested, once the antibodies go away, there is no way anyone can prove you were infected.
With respect to the theory that the truly bad results from COVID-19 come when a person has already been infected by viruses that accidentally got included with flu vaccines earlier, I found an article about the distribution of the use of flu vaccines. It does tend to be heavily US and Europe centered.
Influenza Vaccination Is Global, but Not the Same
Excerpts:
Our [US] current vaccination rate is around 38%, despite a flu season last year that took 80,000 lives. In the EU, the aggregate vaccination rate has been 41.8% with several countries vaccination rates approaching 70% or more. But the numbers of vaccinated people in other parts of the globe, specifically southeastern Asia, the eastern Mediterranean [1] and Africa are much less.
Among countries [2] with a 30% distribution of vaccines or more, there are established politically supported national strategies, with direct outreach to patients. Implementation of similar programs in southeast Asia is uneven especially concerning financing. Vietnam makes recommendations but provides no funding, Australia funds only a portion of their at-risk populace and China has a policy but does not support influenza vaccinations as part of their National Immunization Program.
The foot notes are:
[1] Includes Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebsanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Soumalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen
[2] US, Canada, UK, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Chile, and Australia
The comments section on the Mercola/Mikovits article is worth a read. Ironically the blatant BS around the virus and time off work to read up on stuff appear to be causing more people to wake up.
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/05/03/is-the-new-coronavirus-created-in-a-lab.aspx
This is a vaccinated vs. unvaccinated presentation that was liked to in the very first comment. The study relates to vaccinations on pigs.
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/vaccinated-vs-unvaccinated-part-9/
I found this slide particularly disturbing:
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/wp-content/uploads/Slide5.jpg
Gail,
I love your postings, as they always provoke deep thoughts for me. Honestly it is often just to understand what you have said because you think on a different level than I am capable of.
I can agree with most of your points, such as the first one, but I think that it should be said that the limits on growth are there because we have a consumer based growth model – not a sustainable economic system. There may be a limit there also, but I suspect not, unless you insist on an economic equality that has never existed in any economic system. The same basically for your point #2.
On number 3, though I think you are misfocused. An economy is not like a human body as much as it is like life. It always finds a way. As long as there are humans there will be something like an economy. You can “break” the current model, but something will replace it. I agree number 4 though, world governments cannot see out of the consumer/growth model – so they have no idea how to react. I would have preferred to have seen a measured approach that reacted to hospitalization rates or death rates, rather than whole state shutdowns
I am really not seeing research that correlates COVID to a SARS/HIV hybridization. The gain of function testing was dangerous and stupid, but I would be really interested in references to actual genetic correlation.
I also agree with points 7 & 9. But your point 8 is very misleading I think. Applying a cost per year of life is …… “arbitrary?” It would be just as reasonable to take a number for manyears saved – use a number like two million (the original high estimate of deaths) and say those lives now have an average of 25? more years and get a number like 3 trillion divided by 50 million man years saved for a cost of $60000 per year of life saved. A far more reasonable number. I also find it hard to reduce all the variables down to just masks and lockdowns. There are so many other critical variables such as race, gender, lifestyle, testing frequency and contact tracing that impact those regional or country differences. Simply look at the mistakes made in New York compared to other locations in the US – even there you have race and population density issues that are variable.
While I agree that the future is going to be challenging to say the least – I am not ready to imagine a world where a species that is as engineering focused as we are will some how dissolve into anarchy.
Lastly I really, really take issue with your too much paragraph. We probably do have too many people on the planet, but too many stores, too many businesses? Not possible. The system is self regulating. In a transitioning world where Amazon’s are rising and Sears and Penny’s type businesses are falling – and there are too many people to have our population go back to subsistence farming, Bezo’s type profits are not necessary for a business to be “successful”. If a business can keep it’s owner and employees fed, housed and clothed that may be enough. Costs are not absolutes, they are relative. In so much as my school taxes are less than 5% of my gross, they are painful but not intolerable. The same is true of the myriad of other taxes and costs I am burdened with. My employer takes or allows a little less than 9% of my pay to healthcare and also contributes to an HSA for any gap. Because of this healthcare is rarely too expensive, though it can occasionally be burdensome. For others it can be worse, but I also get healthcare I neither want or need. I don’t do colonoscopies. I don’t care to know and the risk is not that high – but that doesn’t stop them from pushing them – just like semiannual blood work, x-rays or MRIs for just about everything. My healthcare is cheaper because I just say no. I may not live as long as some, but I’ll be happier in my ignorance for the time I have.
I am afraid you need to go back and read some of my other posts. Perhaps you need to read some other background material as well. I am sorry that I haven’t written a book or two to make life easier.
The story is too long and complex to tell in a single post. If you listen to standard “stuff,” your brain is simply confused by everything you read.
These are a few posts to look at
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/07/22/energy-and-the-economy-basic-principles-and-feedback-loops-2/
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2018/08/02/supplemental-energy-puts-humans-in-charge/
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/02/08/the-physics-of-energy-and-the-economy/
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/03/31/economies-wont-be-able-to-recover-after-shutdowns/
Dolph: “too many stores, too many businesses?”. After the 2008 financial crisis, I had checked into retail space per capita. In the U.S., it was close to 30 sf./person. In Europe, which I would regard as also having pretty-much “first-world” amenities, the highest at that time was Sweden, with something like 10 sf./person. So the US could lose 1/2 of its retail space as of today (it already has gone down to about 23 sf. or so, in the intervening ten years and with the enlargement of Amazon) and still be above at the highest level in Europe in 2008-ish.
This excess is only possible due to surplus energy. There is only “too much” if you can’t pay for it, either monetarily or energetically or environmentally (ideally, these would be in harmony). We are seeing a lot of “too much” fall away with the current enforced austerity (FE’s CDP).
Also, that a system might be “self-regulating” does not mean a Goldilocks result for IndCiv or humans, not at all. We can easily be regulated right out the door, and I would hardly be surprised if that is the outcome.
===
P.S. The percentage of income you perceive as “tolerable” depends on how high your income actually is. If your income is $20k, 5% of its is pretty fucking drastic.
As someone with no choice but the heinous Obamacare right now, the O-care “subsidy” switcheroo is like the seemingly $16 pizza that really costs $24 plus all the overhead of DoorDash added on top. It’s designed that way: to spend more money (energy, resources) for a poorer result. It’s Remdesivir vs. hydroxychloroquine.
[Forget it, Lidia.. it’s Chinatown.]
Bolsonaro’s support is shifting from the middle and upper classes to the lower ones, which are more affected as a consequence of lockdown. And lower classes are more huge, so Bolsonaro is doing better in the polls. He can’t get a Health minister, though, the post is vacant
The main supporters of bolsonaro are the middle and upper classes right, but also the evangelists (who are HUGE in Brasil) and also many of the working poor. As long as he has also the support of the military, his position will be perfectly secure i suppose.
evangelical, not evangelists.
In respect to the huge side; 30 percent of Brazilians consider themselves evangelical, and the movement has a lot of political strength, with their own parties and many seats in the parliament. Bolsonaro couldn’t be elected without their support.
That’s pretty much everyone….
Yea he is very popular, Even now, with all the covid press pressure, 50% of brasilian approve his management of the crisis. The only real enemies he have is the leftist, who in fact never had much of a chance in Brasil except in the happy growth times of Lula da Silva. The brasilian elites are ruthless and alway had a tight control on the country.
This George Orwell must have read his Bernays. Undoubtedly, a brave and independent spirit. I wonder what his reaction would be if he were alive in 2001, if he would play the mouse like the Chomsky or if he would yell, like Zola, “J’ accuse!”
“Once when he happened in some connexion to mention the war against Eurasia, she startled him by saying casually that in her opinion the war was not happening. The rocket bombs which fell daily on London were probably fired by the Government of Oceania itself, ‘just to keep people frightened’. This was an idea that had literally never occurred to him.”
Nineteen Eighty-four
George Orwell must have read his Bernays
I doubt he wasted his time– Orwell was in alliance with the Spanish Anarchists, about as far away from Bernays as one could get.
But if he wanted some shallow reading by a sociopath, it is possible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homage_to_Catalonia
“Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for Democratic Socialism, as I understand it.”
To tell the truth, I don’t remember seeing any reference to Bernays in the 4 volumes of The Collected Essays, Journalism And Letters Of George Orwell ( which I read in full and partially translated into portuguese), but having Orwell such a huge interest in the mechanisms of propaganda, it would not be surprising that he had read the bible on this field, published by Bernays in 1928.
I can agree that Bernays was a sociopath and even a SOB, but he was anything but shallow. He was as sharp as cynical, like most intellectuals that are worth reading (from Diogenes the Cynic to F. Nietzsche). I never judged intellectuals by their character, but by their intelligence and knowledge. Orwell, that i love and admire, as an intellectual was much more superficial, in his naive hopefullness and progressivism, than the sob Bernays, that is the true Machiavelli of XX century. Do you also despise Machiavelli? I personally see an ally in everyone who shows me how the elites think and act.
Please—–
Bernays was just a capitalist SOB, and just a blood sucking bourgeois low life.
Note:
Bernays disappeared after 1929—
(I’m sure one can figure that out)
Did he, Duncan? Well it seems that, like Agatha Christie, he came back. He was working hard promoting cigarettes and bananas to the American public until he retired in the 1960s and he died in 1995 aged 103.
Bernays may not have been very fussy about who he worked for, but he did make a point of turning down as potential clients the Nazis under Adolf, Nicaragua under the Somozas, Francisco Franco, and Richard Nixon.
I see him as being to propaganda/PR in the 20th century, what Machiavelli was to politics in the 16th—a very astute observer and an insightful commentator. His insights are manipulating us all today, and those of us who think that isn’t the case are probably the most manipulated of all.
That is not what is portrayed in Century of the Self …
I think I’ll take capitalism and blood suckers over
http://www.faber.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Gulag-2.jpg
But that’s not the point of the Bernay’s posts…. the point is that people like him control your every desire… your every thought … and you are not even aware of it… in fact you reject that assertion… and that’s why it is so easy for them to do it.
I am 100% aware of it … yet no doubt they are still controlling come of my thoughts… one of the main reasons I do not have a Tee Vee is because I prefer not to be controlled.. you can say oh no I am not controlled by the teevee but you are … because they are appealing to your subconscious…
I do not use social media … I do download documentaries and some tv series that generally have intellectual value..
I buy almost nothing but what is necessary. I have next to 0 exposure to advertising and mind control… avoidance is the only solution (and even that is not perfect)…
I seek clarity of thought.
That is not possible if one is a) exposed to a constant bombardment of PR/advertising… b) one rejects the assertion that PR/advertising controls your thoughts.
Rather ironic in that I have spent the past 20+ years on the close periphery of the PR/Advertising industries.
Bernays held parties hosting the who’s who of the world…
I bet he got a lot of a ss at his parties…. even though he was a bit of an odd looking cat…
http://www.dennislewis.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/image1.jpg
I wonder if Kissinger gets a lot…
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/u9AC17Bshrc/maxresdefault.jpg
Sweden’s GDP is being hurt, perhaps less than others. Is it possible that nonetheless their approach at least doesn’t hamper public budget so much as others?
CV19 is culling the herd. It is a good thing. Decreasing the load on the working young, on the decrepit illness profit system. We ideally need need a far more aggressive virus. 50%?
Here’s a different speculation by researcher Jim West into the (non-viral) causes of the current pandemic, considering air pollution and refining and combusting fracked fuel in particular.
Below are several key quotes from his recent overview:
“It [his analysis] reveals that COVID-19 epicenters occur only in areas of extremely high air pollution and more specifically, toxic fracked fuel exhaust. Examples are Wuhan, Milan, Madrid, the Tri-State Region (NY/NJ/CT), Louisiana, Denver, etc.”
“The incidence table is suggesting that the big pandemic trigger [not the virus] is likely a recent global change in refinery protocols for fracked fuel (fuel derived from fracked shale oil rather than from traditional crude oil). Fuels could be natural gas, gasoline, diesel fuel, kerosene, jet fuel, etc….”
“Hydrogen cyanide has been suggested [as a polluting poison]. Cyanide is routinely dumped into the environment by refineries. It is generated by their converters (‘crackers’), where heavy fracked oil and traditional crude oil is converted into lighter products like gasoline and kerosene.”
“Cyanide is a highly toxic gas. The symptoms are similar, if not the same, as COVID-19 disease, i.e., respiratory symptoms and hypoxia (low oxygen), conforming with Dr. Cameron Kyle-Sidell’s clinical observations of the COVID-19 symptoms, reported on YouTube, i.e., hypoxia, shortness of breath.”
https://harvoa-med.blogspot.com/2020/04/COVID2020.html
It has previously been noted that as hypoxia is a symptom of sarin gas poisoning, although it is difficult to imagine people going around spreading sarin on a large enough scale to account for this disease. But air pollution including cyanide gas from fracked fuel might just do it. This looks like an avenue that needs more exploring. It has the ring of plausibility about it. Could be the single most important factor in determining whether people get sick alongside obesity and age-related decline in pulmonary function.
So, suddenly in December of 2019, the amount of hydrogen cyanide in the air suddenly increased at several cities all over the world? It seems odd that a rule change would suddenly result in a drastic change in procedure all over the world in such a short time. Is it so that heavy oil like Western Canadian Select and Venezuelan heavy oil can be processed along with regular oil in refineries not designed for heavy oil?
As I understand it, under this hypothesis, the cyanide would be a major factor but not the only one.. It would be being produced by refining and burning fracked fuel continuously and poisoning people downwind on a continuous basis, adding to their breathing problems as it
Then, in winter, when atmospheric conditions and increased coal, wood and other biomass burning make the air dirty, low levels of solar UV result in low levels of vitamin D and cold lowers people’s immune systems, Kaboom!! The pandemic strikes hard in places where people have been exposed to the cyanide (like Wuhan, NY, Northern Italy, Madrid and the UK) much more strongly than it strikes people in places that have not been exposed (like German, Scandinavia, Russia, Korea, Japan, Australia, etc.
No virus necessary! No vaccine necessary. With the world economy teetering on the brink, it’s worth investigating, I would have thought.
1) First signs of V-share recovery are markets. In april-may it was The best bull market for s&p-500 in 20 years gaining 20%, the second best was 2009 year, third best 2003. Nasdaq is 3% away from all-time-high.
2) Oil. Spectacular bull market. WTI tripled in 20 days. Weekly reports show drawing down stockpiles. China’s oil demand restored to pre-coronavirus levels.
I think we are going the hard way – inflation. In dollar and all other currencies. Expect oil to go $80+. Not because of supply&demand, instead currency will be worth much much less. Look, I know my currency – ruble. In Russia central bank is watching on trade balance, it must be + to the russian side. And every time we have weakness in economy and positive balance shrinks, ruble falls against dollar. This time we have huge weakness in economy -20% of GDP for April. But russian ruble is staing very strong agains dollar. It tells me dollar is very weak itself. In markets we have prices for food skyrocked + 20-40%. Expect the oil price to rally.
Thanks for your insights. You are saying that with all of the US’s money printing and the economy’s weakness otherwise, other currencies, including the ruble, are rising relative to the dollar. This can be expected to bring the price of oil up.
I can see that the ruble seems to rise relative to the dollar, when the price of oil is up. This is happening now.
The Euro doesn’t seem to be rising relative to the dollar, though.
Is there a basket of currencies I should look at?
We will get Covfefe too.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1261128601480704001
It seems the freaking cons.piracy lunatics who warned that the purpose was microship everybody were not so lunatic as they seemed, after all:
“While speaking at a press conference on Monday, Netanyahu suggested the Health Ministry use new technology to help Israel adjust to its new routine as the state is lifting the coronavirus lockdown. “That is, technology that has not been used before and is allowed under the legislation we shall enact,” he clarified.
“I spoke with our heads of technology in order to find measures Israel is good at, such as sensors. For instance, every person, every kid – I want it on kids first – would have a sensor that would sound an alarm when you get too close, like the ones on cars,” the prime minister said.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/benjamin-netanyahu-suggests-to-microchip-kids-slammed-by-experts-627381
For instance, every person, every kid – I want it on kids first – would have a sensor that would sound an alarm when you get too close, like the ones on cars,”
This sort of technology might have stopped Jeffery Epstein in his tracks. It might even deter guys like this.
https://i.redd.it/wx0utztdlzaz.jpg
Uncle Joe is pretty creepy !
Joe is an outstanding challenger for chief errand boy…. outstanding in that it is almost guaranteed that Trump will get a second term… big trump fan… big… (antagonize the NYT crowd… hope they have strokes…)
I really don’t understand why the Democrats would fall on Biden; the creepiest old man with the least coherent answers. Surely that was the opposite they were going for!
Who else are they going to pick, Hitlery or Sanders who’s a professed socialist? They passed on anti-war hero Tulsi Gabbard. Not much left that has a chance of winning. Biden is their best shot. Just for the record, I have NEVER voted and never will.
Biden has NO chance of winning and that’s even if Trump decides not to go after him. Which he will.
I assumed he was running just to attempt to block investigation into his and his boy’s Ukraine/China corruption, making any movement on that front appear solely politically-motivated.
Uncle Joe the Child Diddler.
Clearly someone wants to keep the Joker as the front man right through till the end of days.
Biden has to be the most unelectable candidate in history.
It’s all a charade….
http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/glee/images/6/61/Hahaha-beautiful-o.gif
Keep in mind … the MSM and politicians are not in the business of informing the cattle….
They are in the business of deflecting from their real intentions… they will NEVER lead the real intentions… but they will ‘leak’ all sorts of other bs that gets the cattle chattering…