COVID-19 and the economy: Where do we go from here?

The COVID-19 story keeps developing. At first, everyone listened to epidemiologists telling us that a great deal of social distancing, and even the closing down of economies, would be helpful. After trying these things, we ended up with a huge number of people out of work and protests everywhere. We discovered the models that were provided were not very predictive. We are also finding that a V-shaped recovery is not possible.

Now, we need to figure out what actions to take next. How vigorously should we be fighting COVID-19? The story is more complex than most people understand. These are some of the issues I see:

[1] The share of COVID-19 cases that can be expected to end in death seems to be much lower than most people expect.

Most people assume that the ratios of deaths to cases by age group, computed using reported cases, such as those included in the Johns Hopkins Database, give a good indication of the chance of death a person faces if a person catches COVID-19. In fact, the cases reported to this database are far from representative of all cases; they tend to be the more severe cases. Cases with no symptoms, or only very slight symptoms, tend to be missed. The result is that ratios calculated directly from this database make people think their risk of death is far higher than it really is.

The US Center for Disease Control has published Planning Scenarios, based on information available on April 29, 2020.* Using this information, the CDC’s best estimate of the number of future deaths per 1000 cases with symptoms is as follows:

Ages 0 – 49    0.5 deaths per 1000 cases with symptoms

Ages 50-64    2.0 deaths per 1000 cases with symptoms

Ages 65+       13.0 deaths per 1000 cases with symptoms

The CDC’s best estimate is that 35% of cases have no symptoms at all. Thus, if we were to include these cases without symptoms in the chart above, the chart would become:

Ages 0-49   0.5 deaths per 1,538 cases (including those without symptoms), or 0.3 deaths per 1000 cases with or without symptoms

Ages 50-64  1.3 deaths per 1000 cases with or without symptoms

Ages 65+    8.5 deaths per 1000 cases with or without symptoms

A recent study of blood samples from 23 different parts of the world came to a similarly low estimate of the number of deaths per 1000 COVID-19 infections. It reported that among people who are less than 70 years old, the number of deaths per 1000 ranged from 0.0 to 2.3 per 1000, with a median of 0.4 deaths per 1000.

The same paper remarks,

COVID-19 seems to affect predominantly the frail, the disadvantaged, and the marginalized – as shown by high rates of infectious burden in nursing homes, homeless shelters, prisons, meat processing plants, and the strong racial/ethnic inequalities against minorities in terms of the cumulative death risk.

[2] There seem to be things we can do ourselves to reduce our personal chance of serious illness or death.

General good health is protective against getting a bad case of COVID-19. Thus, anything that we can do in terms of a good diet and exercise is likely helpful. Staying inside for weeks on end in the hope of preventing exposure to COVID-19 is probably not helpful.

Continued exposure to huge amounts of disinfectants and hand sanitizers is likely not to be helpful either. Our bodies depend on healthy microbiomes, and products such as these adversely affect our microbiomes. They kill good and bad bacteria alike and may leave harmful residues. It is easy to scale back our personal use of these products.

There are recent indications that vitamin D is likely to be protective in reducing both the incidence of COVID-19 and the disease’s severity. Web MD reports:

Several groups of researchers from different countries have found that the sickest patients often have the lowest levels of vitamin D, and that countries with higher death rates had larger numbers of people with vitamin D deficiency than countries with lower death rates.

Experts say healthy blood levels of vitamin D may give people with COVID-19 a survival advantage by helping them avoid cytokine storm, when the immune system overreacts and attacks your body’s own cells and tissues.

While we don’t know for certain that vitamin D is helpful, there is certainly enough circumstantial evidence to suggest that it would likely be worthwhile to raise vitamin D levels to the amount recommended by the National Institute of Health (30 nmol/L or higher). People with dark skin living in areas away from the equator might especially be helped by this strategy, since dark skin reduces vitamin D production.

Masks seem to be helpful in preventing the spread of infection. A person’s own immune system can handle some level of germs. If two people meeting together both wear masks, the combination of masks can perhaps reduce the level of germs to within the amount the immune system can handle. Our immune systems are built to handle a barrage of small attacks by viruses and bacteria. Continued “practice” with relatively low combinations of good and bad bacteria (as occur with masks) will tend to build up our bodies’ natural defenses.

We see dentists and dental hygienists wearing face shields. These shields are readily available over the internet and can be worn with a mask or by themselves. We don’t yet know precisely how much protection they provide, but early models suggest that they can be helpful in two directions: (a) preventing the wearer’s droplets from harming others and (b) reducing the droplet exposure from others. Thus, they may be a worthwhile way to reduce exposure to the virus causing COVID-19, even when others are not wearing masks.

[3] The medical community’s ability to treat COVID-19 cases keeps improving.

There seem to be many small changes that are improving treatment of COVID-19. If patients are having trouble getting enough oxygen, having them lie on their stomachs seems to increase their blood oxygen levels. The cost of this change is pretty much zero, but it keeps people out of the ICU longer.

Originally, planners thought that ventilators would be needed for patients with COVID-19, since ventilators are often used on pneumonia patients. Experience has shown, however, that oxygen plus something like a CPAP machine often works better and is less expensive.**

The simple change of not sending recuperating patients to nursing home-type facilities for the last stages of care has proven helpful, as well. Many of these patients can still infect others, leading to infections in long-term care facilities. Tests to tell whether patients are truly over the disease do not seem to be very accurate.

Last week, it was announced that treatment with an inexpensive common steroid could reduce deaths of people on ventilators by one-third. It could also reduce deaths of those requiring only oxygen treatment by 20%. Using this treatment should significantly reduce deaths, at little cost.

We can expect improvements in treatments to continue as doctors experiment with existing treatments, and as drug companies work on new solutions. Looking at cumulative historical mortality rates tends to overlook the huge learning curve that is taking place, allowing mortality rates to be lower.

[4] More doubts are being raised about quickly finding a vaccine that prevents COVID-19. 

The public would like to think that a vaccine solution is right around the corner. Vaccine promoters such as Anthony Fauci and Bill Gates would like to encourage this belief. Unfortunately, there are quite a few obstacles to getting a vaccine that actually works for any length of time:

(a) Antibodies for coronaviruses tend not to stay around for very long. A recent study suggests that even as soon as eight weeks, a significant share of COVID-19 patients (40% of those without symptoms; 12.9% of those with symptoms) had lost all immunity. A vaccine will likely face this same challenge.

(b) Vaccines may not work against mutations. Beijing is now fighting a new version of COVID-19 that seems to have been imported from Europe in food. Early indications are that people who caught the original Wuhan version of the COVID-19 virus will not be immune to the mutated version imported from Europe.

Vaccines that are currently under development use the Wuhan version of the virus. The catch is that the version of COVID-19 now circulating in the United States, Europe and perhaps elsewhere is mostly not the Wuhan type.

(c) There is a real concern that a vaccine against one version of COVID-19 will make a person’s response to a mutation of COVID-19 worse, rather than better. It has been known for many years that Dengue Fever has this characteristic; it is one of the reasons that there is no vaccine for Dengue Fever. The earlier SARS virus (which is closely related to the COVID-19 virus) has this same issue. Preliminary analysis suggests that the virus causing COVID-19 seems to have this characteristic, as well.

In sum, getting a vaccine that actually works against COVID-19 is likely to be a huge challenge. Instead of expecting a silver bullet in the form of a COVID-19 vaccine, we probably need to be looking for a lot of silver bee-bees that will hold down the impact of the illness. Hopefully, COVID-19 will someday disappear on its own, but we have no assurance of this outcome.

[5] The basic underlying issue that the world economy faces is overshoot, caused by too high a population relative to underlying resources.

When an economy is in overshoot, the big danger is collapse. The characteristics of overshoot leading to collapse include the following:

  • Very great wage disparity; too many people are very poor
  • Declining health, often due to poor nutrition, making people vulnerable to epidemics
  • Increasing use of debt, to make up for inadequate wages and profits
  • Falling commodity prices because too few people can afford these commodities and goods made from these commodities
  • Gluts of commodities, causing farmers to plow under crops and oil to be put into storage

Thus, pandemics are very much to be expected when an economy is in overshoot.

One example of collapse is that following the Black Death (1348-1350) epidemic in Europe. The collapse killed 60% of Europe’s population and dropped Britain’s population from close to 5 million to about 2 million.

Figure 1. Britain’s population, 1200 to 1700. Chart by Bloomberg using Federal Reserve of St. Louis data.

We might say that there was a U-shaped population recovery, which took about 300 years.

A later example that almost led to collapse was the period between 1914 and 1945. This was a period of shrinking international trade, indicating that something was truly wrong. On Figure 2 below, the WSJ calls its measure of international trade the “Trade Openness Index.” The period 1914-1945 is highlighted as being somewhat like today.

Figure 2. The Trade Openness Index is an index based on the average of world imports and exports, divided by world GDP. Chart by Wall Street Journal.

Many of the issues in the 1914-1945 timeframe were coal related. World War I took place when coal depletion became a problem in Britain. The issue at that time was wages that were too low for coal miners because the price of coal would not rise very high. Higher coal prices were needed to offset the impact of depletion, but high coal prices were not affordable by citizens.

The Pandemic of 1918-1919 killed far more people than either World War I or COVID-19.

World War II came about at the time coal depletion became a problem in Germany.

Figure 3. Figure by author describing peak coal timing compared to World War I and World War II.

The problem of inadequate energy resources finally ended when World War II ramped up demand through more debt and through more women entering the labor force for the first time. In response, the US began pumping oil out of the ground at a faster rate. Instead of depending on coal alone, the world began depending on a combination of oil and coal as energy resources. The ratio of population to energy resources was suddenly brought back into balance again, and collapse was averted!

[6] We are now in another period of overshoot of population relative to resources. The critical resource this time is oil. The alternatives we have aren’t suited to fulfilling our most basic need: the growing and transportation of food. They act as add-ons that are lost if oil is lost.

If we look back at Figure 2 above, it shows that since 2008, the world has again fallen into a period of shrinking imports and exports, which is a sign of “not enough energy resources to go around.” We are also experiencing many of the other characteristics of an overshoot economy that I mentioned in Section 5 above.

Figure 4 shows world energy consumption by type of energy through 2019, using recently published data by BP. The “Other” combination in Figure 4 includes nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, solar, and other smaller categories such as geothermal energy, wood pellets, and sawdust burned for fuel.

Figure 4. World energy consumption by fuel, based on BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Oil has been rising at a steady pace; coal consumption has been close to level since about 2012. Natural gas and “Other” seem to be rising a little faster in the most recent few years.

If we divide by world population, the trend in world energy consumption per capita by type is as follows:

Figure 5. World Per Capita Energy Consumption based on BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy

Many people would like to think that the various energy sources are substitutable, but this is not really the case, as we approach limits of a finite world.

One catch is that there are very few stand-alone energy resources. Most energy resources only work within a framework provided by other energy sources. Wood that is picked up from the forest floor can work as a stand-alone energy source. Wind can almost be used as a stand-alone energy source, if it is used to power a simple sail boat or a wooden windmill. Water can almost be used as a stand-alone energy source, if it can be made to turn a wooden water wheel.

Coal, when its use was ramped up, enabled the production of both concrete and steel. It allowed modern hydroelectric dams to be built. It allowed steam engines to operate. It truly could be used as a stand-alone energy source. The main obstacle to the extraction of coal was keeping the cost of extraction low enough, so that, even with transportation, buyers could afford to purchase the coal.

Oil, similarly, can be a stand-alone energy solution because it is very flexible, dense, and easily transported. Or it can be paired with other types of less-expensive energy, to make it go further. We can see our dependence on oil by how level energy consumption per capita is in Figure 5 since the early 1980s. Growth in population seems to depend upon the amount of oil available.

As I have mentioned in previous posts, the economy is a self-organizing system. If there isn’t enough of the energy products upon which the economy primarily depends, the system tends to change in very strange ways. Countries become more quarrelsome. People decide to have fewer children or they become more susceptible to pandemics, bringing population more in line with energy resources.

The problem with natural gas and with the electricity products that I have lumped together as “Other” is that they are not really stand-alone products. They cannot grow food or build roads. They cannot power international jets. They cannot build wind turbines or solar panels. They cannot put natural gas pipelines in place. They can only exist in a complex environment which includes oil and perhaps coal (or other cheaper energy products).

We are kidding ourselves if we think we can transition to modern fuels that are low in carbon emissions. Without high prices, oil and coal that are in the ground will tend to stay in the ground permanently. This is the serious obstacle that we are up against. Without oil and coal, natural gas and electricity products will quickly become unusable.

[7] A major problem with COVID-19 related shutdowns is the fact that they lead to very low commodity prices, including oil prices. 

Figure 6. Inflation-adjusted monthly average oil prices through May 2020. Amounts are Brent Spot Oil Prices, as published by the EIA. Inflation adjustment is made using the CPI-Urban Index.

Oil is the primary type of energy used in growing and transporting food. It is used in many essential processes, including in the production of electricity. If its production is to continue, its price must be both high enough for oil producers and low enough for consumers.

The problem that we have been encountering since 2008 (the start of the latest cutback in trade in Figure 2) is that oil prices have been falling too low for producers. Now, in 2020, oil production is beginning to fall. This is happening because producing companies cannot afford to extract oil at current prices; governments of oil exporting countries cannot collect enough taxes at current prices. They hope that by reducing oil supply, prices will rise again.

If extraordinarily low oil prices persist, a calamity similar to the one that “Peak Oilers” have worried about will certainly occur: Oil supply will begin dropping. In fact, the drop will likely be much more rapid than most Peak Oilers have imagined, because the drop will be caused by low prices, rather than the high prices that they imagined would occur.

Amounts which are today shown as “proven reserves” can be expected to disappear because they will not be economic to extract. Governments of oil exporting countries seem likely to be overthrown because tax revenue from oil is their major source of revenue for programs such as food subsidies and jobs programs. When this disappears, governments of oil exporters are forced to cut back, lowering the standard of living of their citizens.

[8] What our strategy should be from now on is not entirely clear.

Of course, one path is straight into collapse, as happened after the Black Death of 1348-1352 (Figure 1). In fact, the carrying capacity of Britain might still be about 2 million. Its current population is about 68 million, so this would represent a population reduction of about 97%.

Other countries would experience substantial population reductions as well. The population decline would reflect many causes of death besides direct deaths from COVID-19; they would reflect the impacts of collapsing governments, inadequate food supply, polluted water supplies, and untreated diseases of many kinds.

If a large share of the population stays hidden in their homes trying to avoid COVID, it seems to me that we are most certainly heading straight into collapse. Supply lines for many kinds of goods and services will be broken. Oil prices and food prices will stay very low. Farmers will plow under crops, trying to raise prices. Gluts of oil will continue to be a problem.

If we try to transition to renewables, this leads directly to collapse as well, as far as I can see. They are not robust enough to stand on their own. Prices of oil and other commodities will fall too low and gluts will occur. Renewables will only last as long as (a) the overall systems can be kept in good repair and (b) governments can support continued subsidies.

The only approach that seems to keep the system going a little longer would seem to be to try to muddle along, despite COVID-19. Open up economies, even if the number of COVID-19 cases is higher and keeps rising. Tell people about the approaches they can use to limit their exposure to the virus, and how they can make their immune systems stronger. Get people started raising their vitamin D levels, so that they perhaps have a better chance of fighting the disease if they get COVID-19.

With this approach, we keep as many people working for as long as possible. Life will go on as close to normal, for as long as it can. We can perhaps put off collapse for a bit longer. We don’t have a lot of options open to us, but this one seems to be the best of a lot of poor options.


*The CDC estimates are estimates of future deaths per 1000 cases. Thus, they probably reflect the learning curve that has already taken place. It is unlikely that they reflect the benefit of the new steroid treatment mentioned in Section 3, because this finding occurred after April 29.

**I have been told that disease spread can be a problem when using CPAP machines, however. Using ventilators at very low pressure settings seems also to be a solution.




About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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2,824 Responses to COVID-19 and the economy: Where do we go from here?

  1. Dan says:

    What happens when massive q.e is taken away? Can the Fed make it all disappear? It’s really hard to keep up with what they do.

  2. Finch says:

    I think intentional non-breeders are a manifestation of an extremely rare allele or gene, which is probably some sort of empathy gene. Essentially, if I were to gauge or poll those in this category, I think the majority would test for high degrees of empathy and/or higher intellects or spatial awareness than on average.

    There are genes for risk-taking (DRD4), so there are other genes that would encourage empathy. I’m also positive that most of them, and I include myself in this group of outliers, view most human interactions as extremely selfish and frustrating, and we find ourselves questioning why people do the things they do. And I don’t really have the answers. The only thing I can think of is that there is a very human psychopathy that defines our species, and for whatever reason, we intentional non-breeders did not inherit it. Either it is that reason, or the non-breeder possesses a very old and very latent gene that went the way of the dodo centuries ago.


  3. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    China’s $42 Billion Clean Energy Debt Is Only Getting Worse
    Bloomberg News
    July 14, 2020, 10:21 PM
    China’s $42 Billion Clean Energy Debt Is Only Getting Worse
    (Bloomberg) — China has used offers of generous subsidies to amass the world’s largest array of wind and solar power. But there’s a problem: it’s not fully paying them.
    Renewable energy projects have grown far faster in recent years than the pool of money the government sets aside to pay the fees it promised them. The result is a total debt of $42 billion and growing, according to one analyst, with a payoff not seen until 2041 without a change in policy.
    While China is moving away from subsidies for new projects, the delayed payments are weighing on developers and restricting their ability to borrow more money to fund new generation. The issue is of particular importance because of the huge amounts of money pouring into the sector in China — $818 billion in the last decade, more than double any other country, according to BloombergNEF.
    “Without structural change to address the issue, the subsidy receivables in the whole industry would continue to grow and drag companies’ balance sheets and investment capabilities,” Tony Fei, an analyst with BOCI Research Ltd., said in a July 6 note.
    China for several years now hasn’t been paying its full subsidy bill, and the mountain of debt keeps growing higher. The government funds the payments with a surcharge on electricity bills, and hasn’t been willing to increase that or find new sources as the number of subsidy-eligible wind and solar projects soared last decade.
    Now the lack of payments have become a major concern for investors in China’s clean power operators. Take China Longyuan Power Group Corp., the country’s largest wind operator, for example. The firm’s shares have plummeted as its accounts receivables soared to more than 18 billion yuan last year.

    My solar project is a clothesline, a metal barrel to heat up the water and a beeswax candle for light….

  4. Kim says:

    Some pretty impressive video of the effects of the flooding in China. 38 milion evacuated, it says.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Almost looks like Noah. Could God be angry someone played around with a virus which He did not make and set it loose on the world?

      Modern man has become very convinced he/she whatever has caused all the evil, wrongs, whatever and that they are solvable by man.

      In the videos of this piece by Gravitas, man is truly along for the ride. The world is self organizing, the metaphorical furniture is being rearranged.

      Dennis L.

      • Gould God be angry? A person wonders. A similar thought went through my head.

        • II’m certainly forming the opinion that if the planet is an ‘aware’ entity, then we are a parasitic life form to be got rid of.

          If that is so, then what better way to do it that release a virus that kills off a few of us, and panics the rest into jumping off an economic cliff.


          Maybe—until you consider that air pollution has dropped dramatically as we all stopped moving around

    • This is the worst flood in 33 years. What happened 33 years ago? It would seem like they should have been aware of a problem of great variability in quantity of rain.

  5. Minority Of One says:

    This article is truly garbage, but it is nonetheless worthwhile keeping an eye on what the rest of the world are thinking / the propaganda they are being fed:

    Fertility rate: ‘Jaw-dropping’ global crash in children being born

    “Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century.

    And 23 nations – including Spain and Japan – are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.”

    Too painful to accept the reality that just maybe every country’s population will be halving and more soon-ish.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Thanks for finding this one.

      Most all straight line approximations into the future are wrong, so assume we don’t remain biological. Of course, that is crazy, but the current path does not work, it will change.

      “A totally unmystical world would be a world totally blind and insane.” Aldous Huxley.

      As for the last sentence, the trick is to be in the right half at the right place.

      Dennis L.

    • Malcopian says:

      Depopulation cannot be allowed to happen. Our productivist economies need more economic growth so that we get more profits that will continue to fund our pensions. And if there aren’t enough humans to produce, consume, produce, consume, why, then, we will just have to build more and more robots and profit from their work,

  6. In God I trust; I will not be afraid. What can mortal man do to me? — David (Psalm 56:4)

  7. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Hunger and malnourishment are increasing around the world as the coronavirus crisis pushes more people into poverty and limits access to healthy diets, according to the United Nations.

    “Almost 690 million people were undernourished last year, the most since 2009, and the pandemic could tip as many as 132 million people into chronic hunger by the end of this year…”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      Unfortunately, we ain’t seen nothing yet:

      “The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) in its 2020 report said a key trend identified in this year’s research is the growing level of civil unrest across the world. At least 58% of GPI countries experienced violent protests in 2019…

      “From 2011 to 2019, the number of riots rose by 282% and general strikes rose by 821%. This reflects a longer-term trend, with riots around the world increasing by 282% in the last decade, while general strikes are up by 821%.”

  8. Harry McGibbs says:

    “As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerging economies are suffering from an unprecedented slowdown in investment, trade and tourism.

    “Economists fear that many countries will go off the rails.”

  9. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Europe’s financial institutions are facing testing conditions as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, with 46 percent of banks now carrying negative outlooks… according to a new report by S&P Global Ratings.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Banks plan to cut back on the flow of credit to eurozone businesses this summer because they anticipate that governments will wind down their loan guarantee schemes, according to a European Central Bank survey published on Tuesday.

      “Lenders told the ECB in its quarterly survey that they expected “a considerable net tightening of credit standards on loans to enterprises” in the third quarter of 2020.”

  10. Harry McGibbs says:

    “U.S. company defaults, measured in U.S. dollar volume, are higher than in 2009. On June 20 of this year, I wrote that corporate defaults this year are likely to surpass the mountain of Great Recession defaults. Unfortunately, I still stand by that view.”

  11. john Eardley says:

    Florida – these are the seven day moving average recorded cases and corresponding deaths 21 days later (Worldometer data).

    Date Cases Date + 21 days Death %
    07-Jun 1111 28-Jun 36 3.2%
    11-Jun 1269 02-Jul 42 3.3%
    15-Jun 1774 06-Jul 48 2.7%
    19-Jun 2682 10-Jul 59 2.2%
    23-Jun 3342 14-Jul 81 2.4%
    Average 2.8%

    Across the developed world over the last four months this has been roughly constant at 2.4%.

    Note that this has nothing to do with actual infections which may be much much higher but rather gives you a way of calculating how many deaths there will be reported in 21 days time given the number of cases reported today.

  12. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Months after the coronavirus arrived in the United States, the economy remains “mired” in crisis and policymakers need to create solutions that offer better support to struggling small businesses, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said on Tuesday.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “New mortgage delinquencies [US] hit a record in April, well above anything seen during the Great Recession… Mortgage delinquencies were among the first signs of the housing crisis and can signal underlying weakness in the housing market.”

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “A new White House-backed ad campaign aims to encourage people who are unemployed or unhappy in their careers to go out and “find something new.”

        “The campaign is rolling out as the nation’s jobless rate remains elevated, with almost 18 million Americans out of work following the economic hit of the coronavirus pandemic.”

        • Herbie Ficklestein says:

          Unhappy!??? WTF, if my cheque doesn’t bounce, I’m happy.
          Happiness is positive cash flow.
          The Airlines will be filing for Chapter 11… after pulling all the stops..
          Capital borrowing, wage and benefit employee concessions, contractor layoffs.
          They are professional squeezers…remember Steven Wolf when he took the helm of Us airways and negotiating with Airbus for a new fleet.
          The CEO of Airbus was so exasperated with his discounting he literally pulled his trousers down and exclaimed he could do no more

  13. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Early data from Europe and Asia suggest the recovery from the economic crisis precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic could take longer than originally hoped, with countries facing a long slog to recover lost jobs and income…

    ““Lockdowns hurt,” said Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg Bank in London.

    “Economists say the second quarter should represent the trough of the downturn as lockdowns ease world-wide. But with the virus far from defeated, the outlook for the global economy is uncertain and fragile, with questions looming especially over the U.S., where a sharp rise in new infections is endangering the country’s fledging recovery.”

  14. adonis says:

    here is my prediction by the end of 2020 the controlled demolition of the worlds economy will be over

  15. adonis says:

    yep definitely a controlled demolition by the elders ,thank god we are saved,bur not all of us.

  16. john Eardley says:

    No matter where you look in the west (right back to March) around 2.4% of cases reported 21 days ago show up as deaths today. So you can look at cases reported today in Florida and be pretty sure of the number of deaths that are going to be reported in around three weeks. The seven day moving average for cases in Florida yesterday was 11119 (Worldometer) and so I can confidently predict the seven day moving average for deaths in 21 days will be 266.

    Write that number in your diary for the 5th of August and let’s see.

    • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      no matter what is said about reported cases, the expanded testing now is giving a much higher % of the actual total cases than even a few weeks ago when the testing was more limited and a high(er) % of cases were missed.

      while the 2.4% may have appeared to be TRUE in the recent past, there has been a significant change in the accumulation of data now.

      states are capturing much more percentage wise of the actual positive cases, and there are far less missing cases in the state data than when the rate “appeared” to be 2.4%.

      having figured this out, the scientists at the CDC state that the IFR is 0.26%, so I can confidently predict that the daily deaths in early August will be about 0.26% of the present daily positive cases.

      I trust the science and the scientists.

  17. covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    “Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said on Tuesday that a universal masking policy could bring the coronavirus epidemic “under control” in four to eight weeks, just one day after stating that cloth masks “may” help reduce the spread of the virus.

    “The time is now,” Redfield said during an interview with the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). “I think if we can get everyone to wear masks right now, we can bring this under control within four, six, eight weeks.”

    While the CDC did not initially recommend the general public to wear non-medical grade masks at the start of the pandemic, the organization formally issued the guidance in April.

    “I think we’re being very clear now,” Redfield stated on Tuesday. “Now’s the time to wear a mask.”


    and what’s the chance of every American doing the right thing?

    for four to eight weeks?

    • Lidia17 says:

      “we can bring this under control within four, six, eight weeks.”

      Yeh yeh yeh.. they told us back in March with the lockdowns it would just be two weeks, then four, then -all right- eight, etc.

  18. covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    “Florida’s 132 additional deaths topped a state mark set just last week. The figure likely includes deaths from the past weekend that had not been previously reported.
    The new deaths raised the state’s seven-day average to 81 per day, more than double the figure of two weeks ago and now the second-highest in the United States behind Texas.”

    it’s almost unimaginable, the carnage in FL.

    81 deaths per day. OMG!

    what if it continues to double every two weeks?

    22 million people there, but they’re dying fast.

    “Doctors in Florida have predicted more deaths as daily reported cases have surged from about 2,000 a day a month ago to a daily average of about 11,000, including a record 15,000 on Sunday. The state recorded 9,194 new cases Tuesday.”

    oh look, cases plunged from Sunday to Tuesday.

    9,194 x 0.26% = 24 of them will die (23.9).

  19. Kim says:

    Qantas’ decision comes jusat weeks after the airline slashed 6,000 jobs – 20 per cent of its workforce – and chief executive Alan Joyce predicted international flights were unlikely to resume until July 2021.

    Tell me they are not deliberately taking the system down. It’s the biggest controlled demolition in history.

    • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “they” are not.

      as the global economy shrinks, which it must due to decreasing net (surplus) energy, some economic subsystems will have to be downsized or eliminated.

      international travel is one of the least essential subsystems.

      and this is not total elimination, not even close.

      this is the self-organizing economy at work, doing a little bit of downsizing.

      just one company is eliminating their international flights.

      this is good.

      it allows the other players in this same industry to take a bigger slice of the shrinking pie.

      it must happen.

      • info says:

        This is a far better form of downsizing than any amount of bureaucracy can. Decentralized decision making at its finest.

      • Kim says:

        This link from 15/06/20 tells us that all international flights to and from Austrlia are suspended.

        This is not a situation where “other players” can come in an take up the business. They are simply shutting down huge portions of the international economy.

        There is not the slightest good reason why this “must happen”.

        It is a controlled demolition.

        • Dan says:

          Kim you need to go back and read Gail’s blog. This has been happening for a long,long time. There was not a healthy economy drenched with oil as the media told you.

        • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


          international passenger air travel is a (non-essential) small portion of the global economy.

          tiny small population Australia is a tiny small % of that travel.

          “they” are certainly NOT “shutting down huge portions of the international economy”.

        • adonis says:

          absolutely controlled demolition all the way look at this if you want more evidence

          • Dan says:

            This demolition has been happening for 20 years. The printing press has been running full speed. Where have you been? There is not enough cheap energy. You make it seem like they took a healthy economy and destroy it! Not so it’s been a sick patient for a long time

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              I’m still not 100% clear on what the motives for, and desired outcome of, a controlled demolition would be. Even the word “controlled” seems inapposite as the global economy is a self-organising, growth-dependent complex system, which by definition cannot be controlled.

              Kim? Adonis? Care to shed some light?

  20. Lastcall says:

    Nutrition and Physical Degeneration, Weston Price.
    This old tome has everything you need to know about what is food and and what is not, and the effects on intergenerational health outcomes.

    The fact that food is an industrial product in many countries, with remarkably little in the way of nutritional value is overlooked by a narrow scientific approach based in the lab and then the factory. Guess what, a few hundred years of lab work has given us franken food and weak constitutions.

    Its prevention that matters. Fences, not ambulances.
    Weston was a dentist. I wonder if todays dentist’s were/are ever introduced to his thoughts.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Here are 41 of Dr. Price’s dos and don’ts from the Amazon Reviews. I wonder how many of them you are currently practicing and how many more you might consider taking up in the interests of better health.

      I warn you, it’s crazy simple, and it’s not a diet. Here are the one page guidelines, called Dietary Guidelines, from the westonaprice site, my comments are in [brackets].

      1. Eat whole, natural foods.
      2. Eat only foods that will spoil, but eat them before they do.
      3. Eat naturally-raised meat including fish, seafood, poultry, beef, lamb, game, organ meats and eggs.
      4. Eat whole, naturally-produced milk products from pasture-fed cows, preferably raw and/or fermented, such as whole yogurt, cultured butter, whole cheeses and fresh and sour cream.
      5. Use only traditional fats and oils including butter and other animal fats [lard, tallow, goose, chicken], extra virgin olive oil, expeller expressed sesame and flax oil and the tropical oils—coconut and palm.
      6. Eat fresh fruits and vegetables, preferably organic, in salads and soups, or lightly steamed.
      7. Use whole grains and nuts that have been prepared by soaking, sprouting or sour leavening to neutralize phytic acid and other anti-nutrients.
      8. Include enzyme-enhanced lacto-fermented vegetables, fruits, beverages and condiments in your diet on a regular basis.
      9. Prepare homemade meat stocks from the bones of chicken, beef, lamb or fish and use liberally in soups and sauces.
      10. Use herb teas and coffee substitutes in moderation.
      11. Use filtered water for cooking and drinking.
      12. Use unrefined Celtic sea salt and a variety of herbs and spices for food interest and appetite stimulation.
      13. Make your own salad dressing using either fresh lemon juice or raw vinegar, and extra virgin olive oil or sesame oil or a mix of the two. [Do not use flax oil, after a 15 month study I found all to be at some degree of rancidity. Grind the seeds and eat within 15min as they start to become rancid (oxidized) at that time limit.]
      14. Use natural sweeteners in moderation, such as raw honey, maple syrup, molasses, dehydrated cane sugar juice [rapadura, sucanat (sugar cane natural) date sugar (ground dates)] and stevia powder.
      15. Use only unpasteurized wine or beer in strict moderation with meals. [Pasteurization kills all the probiotics!]
      16. Cook only in stainless steel, cast iron, glass or good quality enamel. [No non-stick.]
      17. Use only natural supplements.
      18. Get plenty of sleep, exercise and natural light.
      19. Think positive thoughts and minimize stress. [prayer, meditation, yoga, EFT]
      20. Practice forgiveness.

      Here, too, are the WAPF Dietary Dangers:

      1. Don’t eat commercially processed foods such as cookies, cakes, crackers, TV dinners, soft drinks, packaged sauce mixes, etc.
      2. Avoid all refined sweeteners such as sugar, dextrose, glucose and high fructose corn syrup.
      3. Avoid white flour, white flour products and white rice.
      4. Avoid all hydrogenated or partially hydrogenated fats and oils.
      5. Avoid all vegetable oils made from soy, corn, safflower, canola or cottonseed.
      6. Do not use polyunsaturated oils for cooking, sauteing or baking.
      7. Avoid fried foods.
      8. Do not practice veganism; animal products provide vital nutrients not found in plant foods.
      9. Avoid products containing protein powders.
      10. Avoid pasteurized milk; do not consume lowfat milk, skim milk, powdered milk or imitation milk products.
      11. Avoid battery-produced eggs and factory-farmed meats.
      12. Avoid highly processed luncheon meats and sausage containing MSG and other additives.
      13. Avoid rancid and improperly prepared seeds, nuts and grains found in granolas, quick rise breads and extruded breakfast cereals, as they block mineral absorption and cause intestinal distress.
      14. Avoid canned, sprayed, waxed, bioengineered or irradiated fruits and vegetables. [Eat organic!]
      15. Avoid artificial food additives, especially MSG, hydrolyzed vegetable protein and aspartame, which are neurotoxins. Most soups, sauce and broth mixes and commercial condiments contain MSG, even if not so labeled. [make your own nutrient dense broth.]
      16. Avoid caffeine-containing beverages such as coffee, tea and soft drinks. Avoid chocolate. [Decaf your own tea by first steeping loose tea in a mug of boiled water for 10-30 seconds and tossing that steep out, then re-steep as usual. For teabags, only 5-10 seconds is necessary.]
      17. Avoid aluminum-containing foods such as commercial salt, baking powder and antacids. Do not use aluminum cookware or aluminum-containing deodorants.
      18. Do not drink fluoridated water.
      19. Avoid synthetic vitamins and foods containing them.
      20. Do not drink distilled liquors.
      21. Do not use a microwave oven. [It changes food in ways that slow cooking does not.]

      • D3G says:

        “8. Do not practice veganism; animal products provide vital nutrients not found in plant foods.”
        Vitamin B12 is the only nutrient we need not found in plants. The rest of this statement is simply not true, though it took me until age 63 to finally get it. Why should our diet be any different from our primate cousins. It’s not. Five years later I look like I did in high school and no longer need the usual meds seniors are put on for life.

        In the bigger scheme of things it really doesn’t matter. If Gail is right, and I suspect that she is, we will all be vegan in the not too distant future and will be lucky if we can sustain that.

        Everyone be well,

        • Veganism keeps us away from viruses passed on to us by animals. For this reason alone, it may have some advantages. I expect fish are enough different from us that they don’t pass along many viruses either.

          It seems like meat-eating cultures have had religions that encouraged having a lot of children. If these people didn’t have lots of children, they couldn’t keep up with the viruses and bacteria that killed them off.

          India uses milk but not meat. It has had a custom of killing some of the baby girls, to try to keep population down. It also has a more benign climate, allowing it to grow two grain crops per year. We don’t hear about viruses starting in India.

          We hear about viruses starting in China, where people eat any kind of animal that moves. Of course, it has an overpopulation problem as well, with modern medicine and modern food production techniques. The preference for boys tends to hold down population, since it is girls who become mothers.

    • naaccoach says:

      Agreed. I have a well read copy of the book, and in line with the earlier comment of Mark’s daily apple blog – both good resources.

      If you generally treat your body in a species appropriate manner, you will generally find health and happiness. Whole foods, regular movement, frequent socialization, and sound sleep for the win.

  21. Duncan Idaho says:

    Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased Further in June
    down, down, down——-
    Seems to be the current direction.

  22. Ed says:

    Effective treatments for CV19.

    Now, for some good news. There are several therapies that are being offered that appear to be safe, effective and affordable. However, these therapies must be utilized early in the disease progression.


    Japan, Taiwan and other Asian countries have maintained a much lower fatality rate with Covid 19 then we have here in America, in spite of the fact they live in densely populated communities. Many people believe that it is due to their preferred method of treatment. They use a steroid medication that is inhaled in a mist through a home use nebulizer. I’m familiar with this since my 2 year old granddaughter needed this treatment with a similar drug for an upper respiratory issue that she had recently. That speaks to the safety and the commonality of this treatment. Watch the link of a Texas doctor who shares his patient’s experiences with this therapy method using the drug Budesonide and a course of antibiotics.


    Another treatment option that appears to be safe and effective is the use of the antiparasitic drug Ivermectin with the antibiotic Doxycycline. Just one Ivermectin pill and then the course of antibiotics for ten days resulted in a 100 percent cure rate for Covid 19 patients according to the attached study. Ivermectin has been widely used on the continent of Africa for many years as an anti-parasitic and is believed to be a primary reason that Covid 19 has not severely impacted the African population.

    Hydroxychloroquine & Zinc

    As we’ve seen above, this therapeutic regimen should be considered simply due to the efforts to prevent you from knowing the truth about it. As Shakespeare wrote, “Doth thou protest too much?”

    The challenge with this therapeutic is both finding a doctor who will prescribe it and finding a pharmacy that will sell it. This should be between you and your doctor. Not the governors of certain states. Considering that 20 percent of all drugs are prescribed “off label”, meaning that they are prescribed for a use other than intended, you and your doctor should have the liberty and the responsibility to make this health care decision.

    There are several other therapies that appear to be safe, effective and affordable. You may want to research Chlorine Dioxide, intravenous ozone, high dose intravenous vitamin C and another, glutathione which are popular treatments in the homeopathic communities.

    • D3G says:

      Hi Ed. Chris Martenson posted his latest covid-19 update on YouTube a short while ago. Among other things he talks about the success of Ivermectin in treating the corona virus. Ivermectin is also used in veterinary medicine for horses…it comes in apple flavor. Anyway, I found his presentation to be particularly interesting.


    • Tim Groves says:

      Another factoid that might be worth considering is ….. mold.

      As 80-90% of all the “COVID” deaths in the US are in nursing homes, someone commenting at Jon Rappoport’s excellent blog named Haniel Adharhas suggests it could be “a cover-up for the dank and dirty conditions that lead to mold infections being rampant in nursing homes.”

      There have been many lawsuits that have been ramped up in the past few years accusing nursing homes of negligence and allowing aspergillus infection that lead to residents dying from the identical type of pneumonia that is being blamed on “COVID”.

      There is no virus causing this. It is invasive aspergiloma and it has been a nursing home problem for decades. Ask any HVAC guy and he will tell you that these homes’ duct systems are covered with black mold and it gets the residents sick as hell. This would also explain why the nursing home employees also get sick from colds, flu, etc…from being exposed to the same mold.

      Going by national character, I would expect the US, the UK and Italy to be lax in dealing with mold while the Germans and Japanese would be more likely to make war on the stuff in their nursing homes. But anyhow, after reading that, I think it’s time I scraped the mold off of my bathroom wall and gave it a fresh coat of paint. Otherwise it will be one more health hazard to keep me up at night worrying about.

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        Tim, I cannot speak for other nations but in the UK the CQC (regulatory commission) inspectors will shut a home down if it is found to be mouldy.

    • Robert Firth says:

      “The lady doth protest too much, methinks”, Shakespeare, Hamlet, Act III scene 2

  23. Dennis L. says:

    Demographics, SS runs out of money in 2035 ignoring this years economic issues, state and private funds aren’t much better. Sort of explains the ever increasing stock market, biggest holders of stocks are most likely pension funds, insurance companies, etc.

    “The fund’s Trustees noted in an April report that net inflows into the Trust Fund will turn negative next year, commencing a demise that will see the Trust Fund go broke in 2035. Then, payroll taxes will cover only 79% of promised retiree benefits. Here’s the troubling part: “The projections and analyses in this year’s report do not reflect the potential effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Social Security program,” the Trustees stated in the annual report. Clearly, benefits will increase as more workers retire early or claim disability while payroll taxes swoon with the drop in employment.”

    That is only fourteen years from now, the excitement will start before then.

    Dennis L.

    • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “Demographics, SS runs out of money in 2035 ignoring this years economic issues, state and private funds aren’t much better.”

      when push comes to shove, it seems likely that programs/plans dealing with future money will be eliminated before present day transfer payments.

      the future is now.

      this could very well be the last decade of any kind of pensions or other retirement schemes.

      there is no way to forecast to 2035, but you are correct that the squeeze will start way before then.

    • Jason says:

      Not a problem. They will just run a deficit supported by the Fed printing press. No boomer left behind.

      • Lidia17 says:

        Speaking of boomers left behind, I just did my taxes and I owe $10k (last year zero), due to being slightly over the “Obamacare cliff” (a thing of which I hadn’t been aware). Pre-adjusted income $66,106, Obamacare cost full freight $16,149, 24.4% of pre-tax income. Last year I paid no federal taxes, this year $9795.. all “restitution” of Obamacare subsidies.

        How can a shitty pseudo health insurance end up costing 25% of one’s income?

    • beidawei says:

      I will gladly pay you today for a hamburger tomorrow.

    • Robert Firth says:

      Why is the taxpayer lavishing money on the Trustees of a Trust Fund that no longer exists? The money was stolen by the Treasury years ago, and contains only government debt. Debt that, of course, will never be repaid.

  24. Broken Windows says:

    All roads are leading to collapse. Or, The Great Reset, as the WEF are branding it.

    Not long after reading this article, I saw that Joe Biden made a big announcement about his $2 Trillion Green New Deal initiative. Yeah, right. More subsidies, more malinvestment; what could possibly go wrong!

    This is something that you have written about extensively, and given your views of the subject of renewables, this bizarre proposal is crying out for some of your expert analysis.

    Who would’ve thought it would cost as much as 2 trillion totake us back to the stone age!

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      I think the economy likely falls apart with or without masks.
      We are in late stage capitalism, of course it is falling apart.
      With masks, possibly a minor blip in the process.
      The survival of our species is the question—-

      • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        100% mask wearing in public and when otherwise socializing would probably move the R0 below 1.0 and therefore end the pandemic sooner.

        but as we know, many persons are iggnorant more ons and/or stubbborn foools.

        so there is no chance that mask wearing will end the pandemic sooner.

        a local area where the population is sparse has a chance at eliminating the virus in their local area, if most of the citizens are somewhat intelligent and mature, as in 95+% masks.

        but then it would only take one outsider to start the spread again.

        my local area is a bunch of small towns, and I see almost everyone wearing masks.

        I think we are safer than bigger areas, and we hope to stay that way until the HIT reaches all of the bigger population areas in the entire country, which should happen sooner rather than later.

        after HIT, the decrease of the virus will be about as swift as the increase was earlier this year.

  25. Lidia17 says:

    Florida Labs Acknowledge “Major Errors” After Reporting Positivity Rates Of 100%
    The report showed that Orlando Health had a 98 percent positivity rate. However, when FOX 35 News contacted the hospital, they confirmed errors in the report. Orlando Health’s positivity rate is only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent as in the report.

    The Orlando VA confirmed a similar discrepancy.
    The report also showed that the Orlando Veteran’s Medical Center had a positivity rate of 76%. A spokesperson for the VA told FOX 35 News on Tuesday that this does not reflect their numbers and that the positivity rate for the center is actually 6 percent.

    FOX 35 is still waiting to hear back from the Florida Department of Health about an explanation for these errors.

    • Duncan Idaho says:


      Wear a mask, or watch the economy go to hell as shutdowns come back and get enforced.
      It’s not complicated.

      • I think the economy likely falls apart with or without masks. We are expecting too much of masks. The economy was already in trouble, pre-COVID-19. People will remain too worried. Air traffic won’t bounce back to its previous level and continue to grow from there. Vacation travel will remain very diminished. Way too much will be spent on testing, protective equipment, contact tracing and treatments. The economic down-spin we were in previously will continue.

      • naaccoach says:

        Fear speaking – “Bow to the mask or the world will be broken!”

        Reasonable pragmatism – “Umm, the world was already breaking, and will continue to do so, but wear a mask if you’d like.”

    • Tim Groves says:

      In other words, Duncan, vote Democrat this November or the lockdowns and scary headlines will continue ad infinitum.

    • Robert Firth says:

      One possible explanation: the Florida Department of Health made up the numbers in order to discredit the Republican governor, and hence the Republican President. Open a criminal investigation tomorrow.

  26. Lastcall says:

    Here is Dennis…
    ‘There will be consolidation at the community level, as local groups reorganize to sustain their lives and livelihoods in the throes of their changing conditions, choosing polices that favor resilience over those that promote growth. Tribal modes of organization have served our species far, far longer than the alternatives – monarchy, autocracy, oligarchy, democracy. I expect they will prevail again.’

    Well, I guess, if you discount the toxic by-products/structures that this economy will leave behind.
    I think increased environmental stressors and reduced ecological resilience will be a vicious selection environment.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Sat beside him in DC at an ASPO breakout meeting, very nice, quiet man, he was generous and answered a few questions. I had hoped he was off by a few decades on the coming issues, nope, things were pretty much on track. Bummer.

      Dennis L.

  27. Yoshua says:

    Every snowflake is the unique.
    Every life journey is unique.
    The darkness remains the same.

    Every photon is unique.
    The laws remain the same.

    I am alfa and omega.

    • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      every person orbits through the same universe
      every empty past is fourteen billion years deep
      every cancelled future is nothingness eternal sleep

      yet the minuscule miniature middle lingers
      a handful of decades slipping through our fingers
      Oh grip hard onto its illusion of importance

      once I was not
      now I am the air and the water
      the liquid and the solid
      soon I will not be

    • Tim Groves says:

      Photons may be unique, but they all look alike to me.

      I am the alfalfa and the omega fatty acids.

  28. covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    “Despite a rise in new cases, the U.S. is “in a much different place than we were several months ago, a much better place,” Giroir said. About 63,000 people are hospitalized, down from about 85,000, while a lower share of them are on ventilators, he said.

    The mortality rate has fallen across all age groups, he said.”

    it only appears to be a rise in new cases, since 90% of cases in March/April were missed.

    even with a “rise” in new cases, the US is in a much better place.

    • john Eardley says:

      Covid, this is not true. If you look at cases in Florida from 21 days ago against deaths yesterday, deaths are 2.4% and the same as in April in NYC.

      • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        if 90% of infections are missed, (mild cases) the ones who barely feel sick at all, then the death rate will appear to be 10X higher.

        here, the CDC says the IFR is 0.26%.

        they are scientists.

        what is the scientific consensus for IFR in the UK?

        I would tend to believe it, if UK scientists say so.

  29. Dennis L. says:

    Fecal material and virus:

    Did some research, CDC seems to indicate the the virus in fecal material is a shed virus and no longer active.

    The virus that causes COVID-19 has been found in the feces of some patients diagnosed with COVID-19. However, it is unclear whether the virus found in feces may be capable of causing COVID-19. There has not been any confirmed report of the virus spreading from feces to a person. Scientists also do not know how much risk there is that the virus could be spread from the feces of an infected person to another person. However, they think this risk is low based on data from previous outbreaks of diseases caused by related coronaviruses, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS).

    Believe what works for you, there seems to be nothing one can do except become younger each day, please forward that cure if discovered.

    Dennis L.

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      the virus in fecal material is a shed virus and no longer active.
      We have a winner.
      Now a little more basic knowledge is appropriate—-

      • We also know that there are other illnesses that spread through fecal matter. I don’t think we necessarily know that virus in fecal matter is no longer active.

        According to the government of Australia:

        The germ which causes hepatitis A is commonly found in the faeces of people who are already infected. The germ can be passed directly from person to person, or indirectly, by food or water which has hepatitis A virus germs in it.

        Gastroenteritis (gastro) is a disease caused by a virus germ in faeces. People can become infected with this germ when they eat food or lick fingers or use eating equipment, such as knives, forks, plates and cups, which are contaminated with the germ.

        Tetanus is a serious disease caused by poison produced by the bacterial germ Clostridium tetani. This germ can be in human and animal faeces. It can get into the soil and onto other objects on the ground if faeces are left lying around. The germ and its poison can last in the soil and on objects for a long period of time.

    • Lidia17 says:

      Thanks for the extra footwork, Dennis.. and for the “cure”, which I shall strive to keep in mind.

      • naaccoach says:

        The “cure” is a robust immune system. We are the descendants of the survivors of all previous plagues, famines and wars – survival is our game WHEN HEALTHY.


        #1. Eat whole, natural foods, plenty of fat (suet, tallow, butter). Eat enough animal protein to maintain highest possible muscle mass.

        #2. Lift heavy things often to create & maintain said muscle mass.

        #3. Sleep well (dark, chilly, humid) each night, for sure over 55 hrs per week.

        #4. Stay calm and breath, and enjoy friends and family, FFS. We all leave this mortal coil, some more easily than others.

        Review above for a longer, happier stay 🙂

  30. Pingback: Good Words – DeLand, Florida Commentary

  31. Duncan Idaho says:

    1789 — France: Storming of the Bastille heralds the French Revolution. Begun by Parisian crowds seeking arms & the liberation of political prisoners. Signals a new period in history with the taking of power by the nascent capitalist class, the French bourgeoisie.

    Happy Bastille Day comrades!

  32. Chrome Mags says:

    Likely the video below is just propaganda by China, but they are claiming there is a new virus spreading and killing a higher percentage of people (than covid-19) in Pakistan. It’s a form of pneumonia and therefore presumably Covid but is it possible the virus has mutated into something deadlier? Let’s hope not.

    • Hubbs says:

      I don’t think there is much disagreement that based on current info, Covid is very contagious. But to add insult to injury, any subsequent mutation that increases further transmissibility will continue to be selected for. This would be as bad as any modification that prolongs the incubation period.

      At this point, I get into a quandary because the lethality is so low. A very high lethality rate would be counterproductive to a virus spreading.

      Therefore, because the lethality rate is so low and the transmissibility so high, the virus has no pressure to evolve into less lethal strains, which if happened typically would increase its prevalence/incidence. This means that there is plenty of wide-open upside for lethality to increase even as it becomes more contagious.

    • Lastcall says:

      Economic disarray has resulted in the expected malnutrition/homelessness. Subsequently we see the populations becoming more susceptible to any and all of natures arsenal of pathogens.

      Unhealthy people are susceptible people; susceptible to disease and disinformation. The herd panics. A new fear arises. Rinse. Repeat

      • Tim Groves says:

        Yes, precisely! The herd will panic, everywhere will be disease and rumors of disease, and before we know it we have a new Black Death on our hands.

  33. Ravi Uppal says:

    Reality . 140 million infected in India . ICMR(Indian Council Medical Research ) a semi govt body research .

    • Different methods of estimating the total number infected give very different results. There are many people being infected.

      • Ravi Uppal says:

        Gail, ICMR is not the only one . Here is another by a USA based organisations forecasting 200000 cases per day by August . By the way the interviewer Karan Thapar is what Stephen Sakur does for ^Hard talk^ in BBC or may be Murrow use to do . Highly credible .

        • Ravi Uppal says:

          Just checked ,official data says 13.26 million infected worldwide . This throws water on everything . Just for your info I have immediate family (brother,sister,in laws ,childhood friends ) living in ground zero New Delhi, Mumbai , Bengalaru and other cities . This is happening . There are no testing facilities ,nothing and nothing means nothing .

        • I agree. There are going to be a lot of cases in India. There are going to be a lot of cases everywhere else, as well, I expect. I am not convinced that there is anything that we can do to fix the situation.

        • Ed says:

          Let”s say 500,000,000 case in India by Nov 1. At 0.25% death rate 1,250,000 dead by end of Nov.

  34. Sven Røgeberg says:

    I found this article on judith currys blog and it’s worth quoting what it says about climate models:
    «Complex physical settings often result in stochastic models simply because it is not feasible—experimentally, mathematically, or computationally—to model the full system. The effects of the latent (left-out) variables result in random model behavior because their behavior affects the model but is not incorporated into the model.

    Consider climate modeling. The climate is always changing. The scientific question is whether climate change can be predicted. Climate models can at best capture a part of the behavior of the physical system, and therefore are necessarily stochastic…
    In a 2007 paper published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, climate scientists Claudia Tebaldi and Reto Knutti state the fundamental problem:

    The predictive skill of a model is usually measured by comparing the predicted outcome with the observed one. Note that any forecast produced in the form of a confidence interval, or as a probability distribution, cannot be verified or disproved by a single observation or realization since there is always a non-zero probability for a single realization to be within or outside the forecast range just by chance. Skill and reliability are assessed by repeatedly comparing many independent realizations of the true system with the model predictions through some metric that quantifies agreement between model forecasts and observations (e.g. rank histograms). For projections of future climate change over decades and longer, there is no verification period, and in a strict sense there will never be any, even if we wait for a century. The reason is that the emission scenario assumed as a boundary condition is very likely not followed in detail, so the observations from the single climate realizations will never be fully compatible with the boundary conditions and scenario assumptions made by the models. And even if the scenario were to be followed, waiting decades for a single verification dataset is clearly not an effective verification strategy. This might sound obvious, but it is important to note that climate projections, decades or longer in the future by definition, cannot be validated directly through observed changes. Our confidence in climate models must therefore come from other sources..
    The last sentence opens a window on our dilemma: we would like to use conceptually appealing models lacking scientific validity, but this is a high-risk game. Think of the days when the earth was believed to be at the center of the solar system. Ptolemy’s heliocentric theory fit the data of his day quite well, and it certainly seemed plausible to human beings looking up at the sky.

    Tebaldi and Knutti give ample warning in the case of climate models:

    Most models agree reasonably well with observations of the present-day mean climate and simulate a realistic warming over the twentieth century (of course, the specific performance de-pends on each model/metric combination), yet their predictions diverge substantially for the twenty-first century, even when forced with the same boundary conditions.11

    Arguments about whether or not a prediction made thirty years ago validates or invalidates a model are meaningless. Models are stochastic and predictions take the form of probability distributions. Single predictions lack scientific meaning. This is the import of Tebaldi and Knutti’s comment that “any forecast produced in the form of a confidence interval, or as a probability distribution, cannot be verified or disproved by a single observation or realization.” Here we are at the nub of the problem: the meaning of a scientific theory lies in the process of its validation, because this is what connects the mental construct to the physical world. It is fallacious to reject or accept a climate model based on a single-trajectory prediction.

    There can be no doubt that climate change is an issue of vital importance to humanity. Yet rather than soberly confront the issue in the context of scientific limitations, there is nothing but childish invective. How many politicians appreciate the epistemological conundrum? How many have advisers who understand?«

    • Climate models seem to use similar reasoning to economic models: whatever happened in the past will happen in the future. The idea that the world is finite and has limits never occurred to modelers.

      As a result economy models show that the economy will grow endlessly. Climate models are based on the assumption that fossil fuel energy resources will be extracted in ever-increasing quantity, even though this would mean that a great deal of very deep coal would need to be extracted, including some under the North Sea. There is faith that somehow, prices will rise to allow all of this extraction.

      This same faulty reasoning about ever-rising prices leads politicians and others to believe that intermittent renewables can be used to solve our problems.

      • Sven Røgeberg says:

        « Climate models are based on the assumption that fossil fuel energy resources will be extracted in ever-increasing quantity, even though this would mean that a great deal of very deep coal would need to be extracted, including some under the North Sea.» Is this actually considered in some of IPCC models?
        Coal from under the North Sea?

        • The only way it would be possible to get enough coal is to take coal from under the North Sea and other equally unlikely sources.

          The way I understood what happened with the IPCC models is the IPCC asked the International Energy Agency (IEA) for its estimates of future fossil fuel production. The IEA (which is an arm of OPEC) came up with absurdly high estimates of future fossil fuel production–far higher than any estimates of current reserves, for example. The climate modelers had no common sense about what might be extracted, so have gone with those absurd numbers. People at The Oil Drum were outraged at the absurdity of the situation.

          Climate people of course know nothing about fossil fuel extraction, except the standard false belief: “Prices will always go up, so we can get every bit out.”

          I am told that the fossil fuel estimates are not really part of the model, in a sense, so we cannot say the model is wrong. It is the inputs that are wrong. Whatever is wrong, the output doesn’t make sense.

          • Sven Røgeberg says:

            Thanks, Gail, do you have a reference to someone who has written more in depth on this matter? I think you had a reference to an article some time back, but i can’t find it anymore.

            • There was quite a bit of interest in this issue back in my Oil Drum days.

              At least some of those at wanted to use calculations based amounts peak oilers thought could actually be extracted, rather than IPCC assumptions. I would argue that even these “peak oil,” “peak coal,” and “peak natural gas” amounts were still too high, because they assumed that prices would not fall, so whatever reserves existed could actually be extracted. For coal, in particular, there was a huge disagreement as to how much could be extracted.

              IEA WEO 2008 – Fossil Fuel Ultimates and CO2 Emissions Scenarios
              Based on this forecast of future fossil fuels per capita:
              From this post:

              Given that population would be expected to keep rising (Oil Drum authors assumed population rise based on UN forecasts), these were very generous lower assumptions to use instead of the IPCC estimates, in my opinion. Even at this, the model by Oil Drum authors using the climate model at that time produced a rise in temperature of less than 2 degrees celsius.

              It is my understanding that the IPCC has somewhat changed its model now, to partially incorporate the “Peak Fossil Fuel” model in the lowest of its estimates. The IPCC rarely talks about the lowest of its estimates. Also, using the Peak Fossil Fuel estimates is still far too high, I expect.

              One of the primary coal researchers involved in this discussion was David Rutledge, a Professor at Caltech. He was not on The Oil Drum staff, but he posted two posts there. He also spoke at ASPO conferences. These are links his Oil Drum posts. I believe he has academic writings as well.

              The Coal Question and Climate Change June 25, 2007
              The Coal Question, Revisited December 15, 2010

              Another researcher I associate with the coal question is Mikael Höök of Uppsala University in Sweden. His biography lists the following reports:

              Coal and Peat: Global resources and future supply (2012)

              Fuelling Future Emissions: Examining Fossil Fuel Production Outlooks Used in Climate Models -2011

              Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible? 2011

    • Robert Firth says:

      “Ptolemy’s heliocentric theory fit the data of his day quite well” Ptolemy’s theory was, of course, geocentric, and it did not fit the data very well. In particular, it could not accurately model the motions of the “Dolphin Stars” (Mercury and Venus”) that Hipparkhos of Nicaea had modelled better centuries earlier by hypothesising (correctly) that they revolved around the sun. It could also not model the motions of the Moon, as Hypatia of Alexandria duly noted.

      People who want to quote real science to add a lustre of plausibility to their pseudo science should at least try to get it right.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Hypatia of Alexandria came to a nasty end at the hands of mob of very nasty people who’s dogma was threatened by her version of real science.

        In our own age, I think Judith Curry has been subject to similar treatment by the mob, although so far Judith has at least been spared physical torture.

        • Robert Firth says:

          Thank you, Tim. Egypt was the home to three of the greatest women in history, perhaps because for five thousand years her society was matrilineal. The other two were of course Hatshepsut (“she foremost of noble ladies”) and Cleopatra VII Philopater.

  35. Minority Of One says:

    Apparently 8 million+ acres (3,237,000M hectares = about 32,000 sq kms) of farmland in China now flooded. I have no idea how bad this is, but does not look good.
    Yesterday China ordered the evacuation of a whole city on the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. I think most of the cities on the Yangtze are now experiencing flooding to some degree.

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “As China counts the costs of its most punishing flood season in more than three decades, the role played by the massive and controversial Three Gorges Dam – designed to help tame the Yangtze river – has come under fresh scrutiny.”

    • Seven hours ago:
      Chinese media speculate government will give up Three Gorges Dam

      Chinese media were hinting that the Three Gorges Dam has already done its best against the torrential rain and the flooding, suggesting the Chinese government was preparing to give up, reports said Tuesday (July 14).

      A report by website NetEase called on the public to stop criticizing the situation at the dam, which is supposedly the world’s biggest engineering project, as it had already done its utmost in the battle against the floods. Reactions questioned the report, wondering whether it was preparing readers to accept that the authorities were about to give up the fight and “sentence the dam to the death penalty,” New Talk reported.

      Another report says 38 million people have been evacuated:

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        I wonder what “giving the dam the death penalty” would actually mean in reality. Are they suggesting that they just would let it fail under duress?! Or perhaps just demolish it when flood season is over?

        Taiwan News obviously has an anti-CCP agenda but from what I can gather there are some legitimate concerns over the dam’s structural integrity.

        • beidawei says:

          Taiwan News is not a major news source, even in Taiwan. I think it is more of a news aggregator. Taipei Times is the only real English daily, and it’s not a great paper either–it’s rather slim, and most of its news comes from the wire services, plus some translated stories and editorials from the Chinese papers which are co-owned by the same group. The prospect of the Three Gorges dam busting has been mooted recently, mostly on the internet. (There was a whistleblower type figure who predicted this, but that was a month ago.) I would love to see it happen–that would tend to scuttle any Chinese invasion plans for awhile–but am not getting my hopes up. Bird’s-eye photos show that one of the dams is kind of warped, compared to when it was built, which is interesting. You’d think the engineering for these things would be pretty standard, but the whistleblower alleged corruption in the building process (this I can readily believe), and the region gets flooded every year (which is one of the reasons they built all these dams in the first place); if more water would cause problems, it’s just a matter of time before they’ll have that much water.

          • Is China really at Level 1 in its state of emergency? That could indicate that China is really concerned.

          • Tim Groves says:

            I would love to see it happen

            You naughty little boy! Think of all the poor souls who would get soaked.

            • beidawei says:

              I’m thinking of all the poor souls–like me!–who might get invaded, if the Chinese *don’t* get soaked. (Or suffer various other internal problems that occupy their government’s attention.)

          • Robert Firth says:

            Building dams has always been a high risk way to deal with flooding. If the dam works, it still requires a large amount of maintenance and management. If it fails, the flooding that would have been caused by four months of rainfall occurs in 48 hours. You do the math. Or watch the gripping (and accurate) simulation towards the end of “The Dam Busters”.

        • Minority Of One says:

          There are many videos on YouTube going back 12 years that provide pretty convincing evidence that the Three Gorges damn was built to very poor quality.

          There are also many YT videos showing that building standards in China are appalling. The second highest building in the world is the Shanghai Tower, and over the weekend it was reported that leaks in the building stretched from the 60 th floor to the 9 th floor:

          In China’s Tallest Skyscraper, Water Leaks from 60th Floor to 9th Floor

  36. From Zerohedge:

    Asian, European Countries Roll Back Economic Reopenings As COVID-19 Makes Global Comeback: Live Updates

    India places Bangalore back on lockdown
    US daily cases below 60k
    Global daily cases below 200k
    Hong Kong imposes new restrictions
    France makes mask wearing mandatory in public
    Australia cases top 10k.
    Iran closes mosques, schools
    WHO warns: “there will be no return to normal”

    Graph shows that world deaths continue to increase in linear fashion.

    • HarryMcGibbs says:

      And, predictably, the economic knock-on effects are not good, eg:

      “Victorians [Australia] have slashed spending again as stage-three COVID restrictions have been reimposed in parts of the state…

      “The health crisis in Victoria may be dampening household sentiment in the rest of Australia too, because household spending growth has also eased in every other jurisdiction in the last week, except the Northern Territory.”

    • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “US daily cases below 60k
      Global daily cases below 200k”

      this is good.

      especially since these lower numbers are happening even with expanded testing.

  37. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Looking around and came across a workhouse medal on eBay during the Victoria era.
    Got me thinking, looks as if we may soon be opening up again those places for displaced,
    unfortunate wretched souls….
    Why were workhouses feared by the poor and old?
    The government, terrified of encouraging ‘idlers’ (lazy people), made sure that people feared the workhouse and would do anything to keep out of it.
    How did they do that?
    What were workhouses like?
    Women, children and men had different living and working areas in the workhouse, so families were split up. To make things even worse they could be punished if they even tried to speak to one another!
    The education the children received did not include the two most important skills of all, reading and writing, which were needed to get a good job.
    The poor were made to wear a uniform. This meant that everyone looked the same and everyone outside knew they were poor and lived in the workhouse.
    Upon entering the workhouse, the poor were stripped and bathed (under supervision).
    The food was tasteless and was the same day after day.
    The young and old as well as men and women were made to work hard, often doing unpleasant jobs.
    Children could also find themselves ‘hired out’ (sold) to work in factories or mines.
    Glad we don’t treat people like that in Modern times here…..oops, sorry my bad

    This channel on YouTube chronicles them by a gentleman that travels throughout the world in short interviews…heartbreaking stories
    Invisible People is his channel there

    • Minority Of One says:

      I believe that the families were allowed to meet up, briefly, once a week. What they were fed was called gruel and was as bad as it sounds. Kept them going, not a lot more. There were about 800 workhouses in the UK. Many families preferred homelessness and starvation together, rather than the workhouse.

  38. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Wear your Mask and all will get back to normal
    U.S. economic growth is slowing down, Dallas Fed’s Kaplan says
    Published: July 13, 2020 at 1:50 p.m. ET
    By Greg Robb
    The U.S. economy is slowing down after a burst of activity in May, said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan on Monday. “The economy did bottom in April, we started to grow again toward the end of April and certainly into May,” Kaplan said, in a talk at the National Press Club. There was even a brief spell of “double-digit” growth that lasted until the second week of June, he said, but now growth is slowing down. Part of this is due to the resurgence of COVID-19, which is “muting growth,” Kaplan said. He stressed that the public should wear masks, saying it “is the most important thing that can be done to make sure the rebound is faster, not slower.” Kaplan is a voting member of the Fed’s interest-rate committee this year.

    The MOST important thing is to wear your mask!

    Oh, Pardon, everyone wears a mask

  39. Harry McGibbs says:

    Video of migrant workers rioting at Gazprom plant in Siberia due to unpaid salaries:

  40. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Historically low natural gas prices from Asia to Europe and lower demand in the pandemic have resulted in U.S. exports of LNG crashing by more than 50 percent this year, the EIA said last month.”

    • This article references an earlier Oil Price article from June 25: Natural Gas Drops to 25-Year Low as Demand Disintegrates.

      This is, of course, the same problem that oil producers are encountering. In fact, coal producers are as well. Wholesale electricity prices are down as well. This drives all of these producers out of business. The linked article ends:

      To offset coronavirus demand loss – extreme heat in the US Lower 48 is needed this summer- if that doesn’t happen – NatGas prices will continue moving lower.

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        They may get lucky there as the weather looks pretty toasty, at least in the south/southwest

        “The official weather observing station in Death Valley, California — called Furnace Creek for obvious reasons — reached a scorching 128 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday.

        “That is the hottest temperature anywhere on the planet since 2017 and only one degree behind what experts say is likely the hottest temperature ever recorded on Earth.”

  41. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Group of Seven finance ministers on Monday called for full implementation of a G20 freeze in debt service payments by all official bilateral creditors, amid growing pressure on China’s state-owned banks and enterprises to join the relief effort.

    “…the G7 ministers underscored the need for greater transparency about lending, a U.S. Treasury spokesperson said, an apparent reference to confidentiality clauses included in many Chinese loans to developing countries in Africa and elsewhere.”

  42. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Get with the Program….BAU rolls on and constantly needs feeding…Got it!🤑
    RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Brazil’s government on Monday fired an official at the national space agency Inpe whose department is responsible for satellite monitoring of the Amazon rainforest, just three days after the release of June deforestation data reflected a continued increase in degradation.
    Lubia Vinhas was the general-coordinator of Brazilian space agency Inpe’s Earth Observation Institute, which is an umbrella for divisions that monitor the Amazon and panels to debate climate change with civil society organizations.
    It’s unclear whether the removal of Vinhas from her position was connected to the data. Her subordinate who heads the division directly overseeing satellite monitoring of Amazon deforestation remains employed. Inpe said in a statement posted to its website Monday night that the change was part of a shake-up at the agency to improve synergies.
    Still, the timing of the dismissal — coming on the heels of June data — drew an outcry from environmentalists who claim it may be an echo of a high-profile firing at the same agency last year. President Jair Bolsonaro is a critic of environmentalists and defends fostering more economic development in the Amazon, which many adversaries see as a nod to illegal miners and loggers.
    Vinhas was picked in 2018 for a four-year but Science and Technology Minister Marcos Pontes decided to remove her after 2 years and 3 months on the job. Inpe said in its statement that Vinhas’ former department will be merged with others, and she will oversee implementation of a new georeferencing database.
    Inpe figures published on Friday showed 400 square miles (1,034 square kilometers) of deforestation in the Amazon in June, a new record the month since data started being gathered in 2015.
    Total deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon from January to June was 1,890 square miles (3,069 square kilometers), up 25% from the same six-month period last year

    Yes, you are the BAD GIRL…telling the truth….no ….LIE

    • Think of all the green energy credits that have gone into supposedly saving forests. They do absolutely no good, as far as I can tell. Forests in low income countries continue to shrink, while forested areas in high income countries grow a bit. Overall, the trend is toward more deforestation.

  43. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) was already grim…

    “On Monday, that horizon darkened further as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected an even deeper recession for the region, and warned of the spectre of rekindling social unrest as inequality and poverty deepens.”

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