Fossil Fuel Production Is Reaching Limits in a Strange Way

Strangely enough, the limit we seem to be reaching with respect to fossil fuel extraction comes from low prices. At low prices, the extraction of oil, coal, and natural gas becomes unprofitable. Producers go bankrupt, or they voluntarily cut back production in an attempt to force prices higher. As the result of these forces, production tends to fall. This limit comes long before the limit that many people imagine: the amount of fossil fuels in the ground that seems to be available with current extraction techniques.

The last time there was a similar problem was back in 1913, when coal was the predominant fossil fuel used and the United Kingdom was the largest coal producer in the world. The cost of production was rising due to depletion, but coal prices would not rise sufficiently to cover the higher cost of production. As a result, the United Kingdom’s coal production reached its highest level in 1913, the year before World War I started, and began to fall in 1914.

Between 1913 and 1945, the world economy was very troubled. There were two world wars, the Spanish Flu pandemic and the Great Depression. My concern is that we are again headed into another very troubled period that could last for many years.

The way the energy problems of the period between 1913 and 1945 were resolved was through the rapid ramp-up of oil production. Oil was, as that time, inexpensive to produce and could be sold for a very large multiple of the cost of production. If population is to remain at the current level or possibly grow, we need a similar “energy savior.” Unfortunately, none of the alternatives we are looking at now yield a high enough return relative to the required investment.

I recently gave a talk to an engineering group interested in energy research talking about these issues. In this post, I will discuss the slides of this presentation. A PDF of the presentation can be found at this link.

The Low Oil Price Problem

Oil prices seem to bounce around wildly. One major issue is that there is a two-way tug of war between the prices that citizens can afford and the prices that oil companies require. We can look back now and say that the mid-2008 price of over $150 per barrel was too high for consumers. But strangely enough, oil producers began complaining about oil prices being too low to cover their rising cost levels, starting in 2012. Prices, at a 2019 cost level, were at about $120 per barrel at that time. I wrote about this issue in the post, Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending. Oil prices now are in the $40 range, so are way, way below both $120 per barrel and $150 per barrel.

Interest rates and the availability of debt also play a role in oil prices. If interest rates are low and debt is readily available, it is easy to buy a new home or new car, and oil prices tend to rise because of the higher demand. When prices are too low for producers, central banks have been able to lower interest rates through a program called “quantitative easing.” This program seems to have helped oil prices to rise again, over a three-year period, after they crashed in 2008.

OPEC producers are known for their low cost of production, but even they report needing high oil prices. The cost of extracting the oil is reported to be very low (perhaps $10 per barrel), but the price charged needs to be high enough to allow governments to collect very high taxes on the oil extracted. If prices are high enough, these countries can continue the food subsidies that their populations depend upon. They can also sponsor development programs to provide jobs for the ever-growing populations of these countries. OPEC producers also need to develop new oil fields because the old ones deplete.

Oil production outside of the United States and Canada entered a bumpy plateau in 2005. The US and Canada added oil production from shale and bitumen in recent years, helping to keep world oil production (including natural gas liquids) rising.

One reason why producers need higher prices is because their cost of extraction tends to rise over time. This happens because the oil that is cheapest to extract and process tends to be extracted first, leaving the oil with higher cost of extraction until later. 

Some OPEC countries, such as Saudi Arabia, can hide the low price problem for a while by borrowing money. But even this approach does not work well for long. The longer low oil prices last, the greater the danger is of governments being overthrown by unhappy citizens. Oil production can then be expected to become erratic because of internal conflicts.

In the US and Canada, oil companies have been funded by bank loans, bond sales and the sale of shares of stock. These sources of funding are drying up, as many oil companies report poor earnings, year after year, and some are seeking bankruptcy protection. 

Chart 6 shows that the number of drilling rigs in operation has dropped dramatically in both the United States and Canada, as oil companies cut back on drilling. There is a lag between the time the number of drilling rigs is cut back and the time production starts to fall of perhaps a year, in the case of shale. These low drilling rig counts suggest that US and Canadian oil production from shale will fall in 2021.

Of course, unused drilling rigs cannot be mothballed indefinitely. At some point, they are sold as scrap and the workers who operated them find other employment. It then becomes difficult to restart oil extraction.

How the Economy Works, and What Goes Wrong as Limits Are Reached

Slide 7 shows one way of visualizing how the world economy, as a self-organizing system, operates. It is somewhat like a child’s building toy. New layers are added as new consumers, new businesses and new laws are added. Old layers tend to disappear, as old consumers die, old products are replaced by new products, and new laws replace old laws. Thus, the structure is to some extent hollow.

Self-organizing objects that grow require energy under the laws of physics. Our human bodies are self-organizing systems that grow. We use food as our source of energy. The economy also requires energy products of many kinds, such as gasoline, jet fuel, coal and electricity to allow it to operate.

It is easy to see that energy consumption allows the economy to produce finished goods and services, such as homes, automobiles, and medical services. It is less obvious, but just as important, that energy consumption provides jobs that pay well. Without energy supplies in addition to food, typical jobs would be digging in the dirt with a stick or gathering food with our hands. These jobs don’t pay well.

Finally, Slide 7 shows an important equivalence between consumers and employees. If consumers are going to be able to afford to buy the output of the economy, they need to have adequate wages.

A typical situation that arises is that population rises more quickly than energy resources, such as land to grow food. For a while, it is possible to work around this shortfall with what is called added complexity: hierarchical organization, specialization, technology, and globalization. Unfortunately, as more complexity is added, the economic system increasingly produces winners and losers. The losers end up with very low wage jobs, or with no jobs at all. The winners get huge wages and often asset ownership, as well. The winners end up with far more revenue than they need to purchase basic goods and services. The losers often do not have enough revenue to feed their families and to buy basic necessities, such as a home and some form of basic transportation.

The strange way the economy works has to do with the physics of the situation. Physicist Francois Roddier explains this as being similar to what happens to water at different temperatures. When the world economy has somewhat inadequate energy supplies, the goods and services produced by the economy tend to bubble to the top members of the world economy, similar to the way steam rises. The bottom members of the economy tend to get “frozen out.” This way, the economy can downsize without losing all members of the economy, simultaneously. This is the way ecosystems of all kinds adapt to changing conditions: The plants and animals that are best adapted to the conditions of the time tend to be the survivors.

These issues are related to the fact that the economy is, in physics terms, a dissipative structure. The economy, like hurricanes and like humans, requires adequate energy if it is not to collapse. Dissipative structures attempt to work around temporary shortfalls in energy supplies. A human being will lose weight if his caloric intake is restricted for a while. A hurricane will lose speed, if the energy it gets from the warm water of the ocean is restricted. A world economy with inadequate energy is likely to shrink back in many ways: unprofitable businesses may fail, layers of government may disappear and population may fall, for example.

In the discussion of Slide 7, I mentioned the fact that if we try to “stretch” energy supply with added complexity, many workers would end up with very low wages. Some of these low wage workers would be in the US and Europe, but many of them would be in China, India and Africa. Even though these workers are producing goods for the world economy, they often cannot afford to buy those same goods themselves. Henry Ford is remembered to have said something to the effect that he needed to pay his workers enough so that they, themselves, could buy the cars they were making. To a significant extent, this is no longer happening when a person takes into account international workers.

The high interest rates that low-wage workers pay mean that loans don’t really help low-wage workers as much as they help high-wage workers. The high interest on credit card debt and personal loans tend to transfer part of the income of low-wage workers to the financial sector, leaving poor people worse off than they would have been without the loans. 

COVID shutdowns are extremely damaging to the world economy. They are like taking support sticks out of the dome on Slide 7. They produce many more unemployed people around the world. People in low wage countries that produce clothing for a living have been particularly hard hit, for example. Migrant workers and miners of various kinds have also been hard hit.

We Seem to Be Reaching a Major Turning Point

Oil production and consumption have both fallen in 2020; oil prices are far too low for producers; wage disparity is a major problem; countries seem to be increasingly having problems getting along. Many analysts are forecasting a prolonged recession.

The last time that we had a similar situation was in 1913, when the largest coal producer in the world was the United Kingdom. The UK’s cost of coal production kept rising because of depletion (deeper mines, thinner seams), but prices would not rise to compensate for the higher cost of production. Miners were paid very inadequate wages; poor workers regularly held strikes for higher wages. World War I started in 1914, the same year coal production of the UK started to fall. The UK’s coal production has fallen nearly every year since then.

The last time that wage disparity started to spike as badly as it has in recent years occurred back in the late 1920s, or perhaps as early as 1913 to 1915.  The chart shown above is for the US; problems were greater in Europe at that time.

With continued low oil prices, production is likely to start falling and may continue to fall for years. It is hard to bring scrapped drilling rigs back into service, for example. The experience in the UK with coal shows that energy prices don’t necessarily rise to compensate for higher costs due to depletion. There need to be buyers for higher-priced goods made with higher-priced coal. If there is too much wage disparity, the many poor people in the system will tend to keep demand, and prices, too low. They may eat poorly, making it easier for pandemics to spread, as with the Spanish Flu in 1918-1919. These people will be unhappy, leading to the rise of leaders promising to change the system to make things better.

My concern is that we may be heading into a long period of unrest, as occurred in the 1913 to 1945 era. Instead of getting high energy prices, we will get disruption of the world economy.  The self-organizing economy is attempting to fix itself, either by getting more energy supply or by eliminating parts of the economy that aren’t contributing enough to the overall system. Conflict between countries, pandemics, bankruptcies and economic contraction are likely to be part of the mix.

Coal Seems to Be Reaching Extraction Limits as Well 

Coal has essentially the same problem as oil: Prices tend to be too low for producers to extract coal profitably. Many coal producers have gone bankrupt. Prices were higher back in 2008, when demand was high for everything, and again in 2011, when quantitative easing had been helpful. 

There have been stories in the press in the past week about China limiting coal imports from Australia, so as to make more jobs for coal miners in China. The big conflict among countries relates to “not enough jobs that pay well” and “not enough profitable companies.” These indirectly are energy issues. If there was more “affordability” of goods made with high-priced coal, there would be no problem.

Coal production worldwide has been on a bumpy plateau since 2012. In fact, China, the largest producer of coal, found its production stagnating, starting about 2012. The problem was a familiar one: The cost of extraction rose because many mines that had been used for quite a number of years were depleted. The selling price would not rise to match the higher cost of extraction because of affordability issues.

The underlying problem is that the economy is a dissipative structure. Commodity prices are set by the laws of physics. Prices don’t rise high enough for producers, if there are not enough customers willing and able to buy the goods made with high-priced coal.

We Have a Major Problem if Both Coal and Oil Production Are in Danger of Falling Because of Low Prices

Oil and coal are the two largest sources of energy in the world. We can’t get along without them. While natural gas production is fairly high, there is not nearly enough natural gas to replace both oil and coal.

Looking down the list, we see that nuclear production hit a maximum back in 2006 and has fallen since then.

Hydroelectric continues to grow, but from a small base. Most of the good sites have already been taken. In many cases, there are conflicts between countries regarding who should get the benefit of water from a given river.

The only grouping that is growing rapidly is Renewables. (This is really Renewables Other than Hydroelectric.) It includes wind and solar plus a few other energy types, including geothermal. This grouping, too, is very small compared to oil and coal.

Natural Gas Has a Low Price Problem as Well

Natural gas, at first glance, looks like it might be a partial solution to the world’s energy problems: It is lower in carbon than coal and oil, and it is fairly abundant. The problem with natural gas is that it is terribly expensive to ship. At one time, people used to talk about there being a lot of “stranded” natural gas. This natural gas seemed to be available, but when shipping costs were included, the price of goods made with it (such as electricity or winter heat for homes) was often unaffordable.

After the run-up in oil prices in the early 2000s, many people became optimistic that, with energy scarcity, natural gas prices would rise sufficiently to make extraction and shipping long distances profitable. Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly clear that, while prices can temporarily spike due to scarcity and perhaps a debt bubble, keeping the prices up for the long run is extremely difficult. Customers need to be able to afford the goods and services made with these energy products, or the laws of physics bring market prices back down to an affordable level.

The prices in the chart reflect three different natural gas products. The lowest priced one is US Henry Hub, which is priced near the place of extraction, so long distance shipping is not an issue. The other two, German Import and Japan Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), include different quantities of long distance shipping. Prices in 2020 are even lower than in 2019. For example, some LNG imported by Japan has ben purchased for $4 per million Btu in 2020.

The Economy Needs a Bail-Out Similar to the Growth of Oil After WWII

The oil that was produced shortly after World War II had very important characteristics:

  1. It was very inexpensive to produce, and
  2. It could be sold to customers at a far higher price than its cost of production.

It was as if, today, we had a very useful energy product that could be produced and delivered for $4, but it was so valuable to consumers that they were willing to pay $120 for it. In other words, the consumer was willing to pay 30 times as much as the cost that went into extracting and refining the oil.

With an energy product this valuable, a company producing it would need virtually no debt. It could drill a well or two, and with the profits from the first wells, finance the investment of many more wells. The company could pay very high taxes, allowing governments to build roads, schools, electricity transmission lines and much other infrastructure, without having to raise taxes on citizens.

Besides using the profits for reinvestment and for taxes, oil companies could pay high dividends. This made oil company stocks favorites of pension plans. Thus, in a way, oil company profits could help subsidize pension plans, as well.

Now, because of depletion, we have reached a situation where oil companies, and in fact most companies, are unprofitable. Companies and governments keep adding debt at ever lower interest rates. In fact, the tradition of ever-increasing debt at ever-lower interest rates goes back to 1981. Thus, we have been using debt manipulation to hide energy problems for almost 40 years now.

We need a way to counteract this trend toward ever-lower returns. Some people talk about “Energy Return on Energy Investment” or EROEI. I gave an example in dollars, but a major thing those dollars are buying is energy, so the result is very similar.

I think researchers have set the “bar” far too low, in looking at what is an adequate EROEI. Today’s wind and solar don’t really have an adequate EROEI, when the full cost of delivery is included. If they did, they would not need the subsidy of “going first” on the electric grid. They would also be able to pay high taxes instead of requiring subsidies, year after year. We need much better solutions than the ones we have today.

Some researchers talk about “Net Energy per Capita,” calculated as ((Energy Delivered to the End User) minus (Energy Used in Making and Transporting Energy to the End User)) divided by (Population). It seems to me that Net Energy per Capita needs to stay at least constant, and perhaps rise. If net energy per capita could actually rise, it would allow the economy to increasingly fight depletion and pollution.

Conclusion: We Need a New Very Inexpensive Energy Source Now

We need a new, very inexpensive energy source that buyers will willingly pay a disproportionately high price for right now, not 20 or 50 years from now.

The alternative may be an economy that does poorly for a long time or collapses completely.

The one ray of hope, from a researcher’s perspective, is the fact that people are always looking for solutions. They may be able to provide funds for research at this time, even if funds for full implementation are unlikely.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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2,885 Responses to Fossil Fuel Production Is Reaching Limits in a Strange Way

  1. Kowalainen says:

    Ah, it is as the world lags behind me about a year. I need to put my crystal ball aside for a moment and pretend surprised.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-science-idUSKBN2782PK
    “Studies have found that rinses containing cetylpyridinium chloride or povidone-iodine can reduce the oral coronavirus load”

    Yup, and the same goes for using PVP-I topical solution for your hands and nostrils. Shall we guess another year or so before it pops up in MSM?

    🤘😬🤘

    • There are actually all kinds of things in this article. It starts off with,

      Large wildfires may be linked to increases in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the San Francisco area, according to a paper in the European Review for Medical and Pharmacological Sciences. Researchers found that between March and September, increases in smoke particles, other wildfire pollutants and carbon monoxide levels corresponded to increases in daily COVID-19 diagnoses and total COVID-19 deaths.

    • MG says:

      “Researchers in Poland also found that these types of people were also more likely to engage in hoarding behaviour because of their competitive and entitled The new study adds to previous research done by experts in Poland who made similar findings that people with psychopathic and narcissistic personality traits are more likely to ignore coronavirus restrictions such as face masks, physical distancing, hand hygiene and staying at home

      Researchers in Poland also found that these types of people were also more likely to engage in hoarding behaviour because of their competitive and entitled manner.”

      • Lidia17 says:

        Yes, far better to rely on the State to supply your daily ration just-in-time rather than developing any kind of self-sufficiency or self-protection.

        Another element of religiosity being projected upon the secular state. I remember my Italian mother-in-law thought it unseemly to stock up on food because it was showing a lack of faith in God’s daily providence.

        • Xabier says:

          I read a 19th c author describing early life in Texas, who maintained that it was ‘impious’ to contend that over-population could ever be a problem. God would not create a world which could be over-populated, etc.

          An early version of the argument that we just have to be ‘smarter’ and work out solutions to deal with the consequences of not changing our ways.

    • Lidia17 says:

      People with sociopathic traits more likely to fund newspaper articles supporting totalitarian dictates.

    • Regarding “People with sociopathic traits less likely to follow coronavirus guidelines, when I look at the academic article itself,
      https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886920305377

      I find that one of the three highlights of the article that the authors give is

      “The increase in COVID-19 cases in the country are not associated with people’s adherence to containment measures.”

      Thus, they seem to be saying that containment measures don’t really work. They then go on to show that the problem of non-compliance is as least partially sociopathic individuals, who do not do as they are told when it comes to containment measures.

      If containment measures don’t really work, then perhaps it is the sociopathic people who are the sensible ones.

    • JMS says:

      Don’t say sociopaths. The polite word is misanthropes or (if you are on a very kind mood) the wise 🙂

      • Bei Dawei says:

        How about “morals-free”?

      • Minority Of One says:

        misanthropes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misanthropy)
        “Misanthropy is the general hatred, dislike, distrust or contempt of the human species, human behavior and/or human nature. A misanthrope or misanthropist is someone who holds such views or feelings.”

        I hold the human species in contempt, therefore I am definitely a misanthrope. Was not aware I was a sociopath, but then again like control freaks, sociopaths probably deny they are sociopaths, so maybe I am one of those too.

        “What is a sociopath? (https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/sociopath)

        A sociopath is a term used to describe someone who has antisocial personality disorder (ASPD). People with ASPD can’t understand others’ feelings. They’ll often break rules or make impulsive decisions without feeling guilty for the harm they cause.

        People with ASPD may also use “mind games” to control friends, family members, co-workers, and even strangers. They may also be perceived as charismatic or charming.”

        I am definitely not a sociopath. I don’t remember ever being perceived as charismatic or charming. Just ask my teenage kids.

    • misanthropr#7 says:

      Where I live – rural- in some shops no one is wearing masks including employees in defiance of the governors orders. They look at you real funny if you have a mask on. It varies shop to shop of course. Some are fully masked and enforce. The norm is masked employees with a large amount of unmasked customers. More than 50%. Thats in small towns below 5000. As the town size grows so do the masks. If they are sociopaths there is a lot of them.

      • Xabier says:

        Mask wearing really shot up in this part of Eastern England a month or two ago, even in the street, then went down again, but still at a high level.

        We still have about the lowest infection rate in the country, about 10% of the worst-hit and poorer regions in the North, Wales, etc.

        Population is skewed towards the highly educated – university town – and middle-class, and they are prominent in the old centre of town where the more expensive shops are.

        I’m going to the lower-class shopping mall on Monday, and it will be interesting to see how things are there.

        The students are wearing masks a lot, as they don’t want their courses to be interrupted again as in March this year.

        I have noticed that very few black people wear masks, for some reason – it really stands out. And more women than men.

        • A lot of people here seem to wear their masks below their noses. Part of this is because employers buy “one size fits most” masks, and they don’t really fit. If they are too big (and don’t have elastic over the ears), they tend to slide down. No one stops these people, because they do have a mask on, just not “correctly.” In some cases, the loops can be “twisted” before putting them over the ears, to make them shorter. But there is an inherent problem is making masks with unadjustable cloth bands that go over the ears.

      • Studies have been done that indicate that compliance with wearing masks is much higher among older people than younger people as well.

        In a sense, I think that people “compute” what their chance of falling ill will be, based on their numbers of daily contacts with others, their ages, and other factors. People who live in inherently crowded areas [Europe, US northeast, China, Japan. Taiwan] tend to be much more willing to wear masks. These people tend to live in apartments with shared hallways (and ventilation systems?) and ride on public transportation. In crowded areas, pollution may also be a reason for wearing masks, pushing compliance up.

        Masks thus seem to provide much more “benefit” in crowded areas than in uncrowded areas. Older people get much more benefit, as well.

        Another major difference between small towns and cities is that a person is likely to know a much larger share of the total population. They want to reach out and talk to them. They cannot imagine that these people could possibly harm them by carrying a hidden illness that only manifests itself in a small percentage of the population. Putting on a mask makes reaching out and sharing less possible. It is only when a person feels personally threatened (very old or compromised immune system) that he/she will wear a mask.

        All of this mask wearing in cities will tend to reduce social interactions in cities, making them less desirable places to live. People will increasingly move to suburban and rural areas. Restaurants and bars will close, especially in the centers of cities. City churches and fitness centers will close as well.

  2. MG says:

    And what about the cataract?

    Preventive effects of pyrroloquinoline quinone on formation of cataract and decline of lenticular and hepatic glutathione of developing chick embryo after glucocorticoid treatment

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2549318/

    https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/chandigarh/mohali-institute-uses-aspirin-nano-particles-for-non-surgical-economical-prevention-of-cataract-121613

    “Mohali institute uses Aspirin nano-particles for non-surgical, economical prevention of cataract
    This alternative non-surgical treatment will benefit patients in developing countries, who cannot access expensive cataract treatments and surgeries”

    • An inexpensive substitute for cataract surgery would be helpful in rich nations as well as poor nations. Health care costs are way too high. We need to be finding inexpensive approaches to treating patients. Maybe Aspirin non-particles will work.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Cataract surgery was about $1K/eye a few years back, my vision now 20/15 one eye, 20/20 the other per recent exam. Pair of variable focal length glasses about $800, easy to lose when one doesn’t wear them all the time, dime store glasses are cheap.Implanted lenses correct near sighted issues.

        To each his own, grateful to be able to afford the surgery, one of the true blessings of modern medicine.

        Note on technology for vision testing. Machines now do most of the work, dilating pupils for routine work not needed, intra occular pressure test done with hand held device, no anesthetic needed. Fast, accurate,most likely cheaper than manual method.

        Man, some days I feel as though I have become a grumpy old man, where is Ann Margret when I need her.

        Dennis L.

  3. MG says:

    https://www.minnpost.com/second-opinion/2018/09/older-adults-cognitive-skills-peak-in-late-summer-and-early-fall-study-suggests/

    “The cognitive skills of older adults appear to rise and fall with the seasons, according to a study published recently in the journal PLOS Medicine.

    Specifically, the study found that older people who took cognitive tests during winter and early spring tended to have lower scores — particularly for tasks involving working memory and perceptual speed — than those who took the tests at other times of the year.

    The study also found that when older adults undergo cognitive testing in winter and spring, they are significantly more likely to meet the diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment than if they took the tests in summer or early fall. Mild cognitive impairment is a controversial condition that has been suggested as a possible precursor to the development of dementia.”

    “Indeed, the researchers found that scores tended to peak around the fall equinox in late September.”

    As far as I also can see, this shows some demonstrable results:

    https://www.nutraceuticalsnow.com/articles/2018/07/09/biopqq-demonstrable-results-improving-brain-health/

    • MG says:

      “The two cognitive skills most affected by the seasons were working memory (the ability to hold information in the mind for a short time, such as while memorizing a pin number) and perceptual speed (the time it takes to recognize or compare symbols or figures or to do other simple tasks).”

    • When I read this,

      When the researchers compared the testing dates with the results, they found that people tested in July through October scored better, on average, than those tested in the other months.

      the first thing I would ask is, “Is this a vitamin D effect, or a sunshine effect?” Vitamin D levels will be highest in this period. People will be least depressed. These thing, by themselves, would seem to play a big role in how they do on the test.

      The other article is about using BioPQQ (with or without CoQ10) to try to improve some measure of memory in older people whose memories seem to be below average. Perhaps it helps; I don’t know. I would like more than one study to show benefits and not show harm. I know that CoQ10 has been around for quite a while. I haven’t encountered BioPQQ before.

      • MG says:

        EU considers it a safe food supplement:

        https://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/pub/5058

      • MG says:

        Nutritional Importance of Pyrroloquinoline Quinone

        “Mice fed a chemically defined diet devoid of pyrroloquinoline quinone (PQQ) grew poorly, failed to reproduce, and became osteolathyritic. Moreover, severely affected mice had friable skin, skin collagen that was readily extractable into neutral salt solutions, and decreased lysyl oxidase. The identification of functional defects in connective tissue and the growth retardation associated with PQQ deprivation suggest that PQQ plays a fundamental role as a growth factor or vitamin.”

        https://www.jstor.org/stable/1703721?seq=1

  4. misanthropr#7 says:

    2nd try
    Art Berman
    Please delete previous
    https://youtu.be/ugj634e4TjM

    • Very nice interview with Art. I didn’t get through all of it yet. He makes some good points. The idea that we can live without oil isn’t a stupid idea; it’s an ignorant idea. He suggests that without fossil fuels, we might have to go back to a 1960 lifestyle. Children sharing bedrooms, for example. I am afraid he is being way too generous, with this example. He does make the point that the economy was doing very badly, before Covid came along. It speeded up trends that were already happening.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Okay, so Art is a petroleum geologist whose business is finding oil or something similar; there is no more oil to be found that can be extracted economically. Conclusion: he is a man with an interesting history and no future employment which is useful. He also has nothing to offer on what possible future solutions are as in his area of expertise there are no solutions. I did not listen to the interview, the interviewer states the intention to pis. people off, why suffer learning something we already know?

        “Along our present path his example of sharing bedrooms is most likely too generous”, yes the economy is doing badly, the increasing debt/increase in GDP is known, that too is history.

        Hubbert knew this in the fifties, he had a workable solution, nuclear fission; the problem with fission is it works until it doesn’t and then it is a mess. That is a location problem. Those who think it can be made to work, put it in their backyard.

        So, back to the moon, spaceship earth. If everything is not going to work the way one is going, what does one have to lose? Why beat on the moon idea? Again, you guys are smart, find holes in it, then find a way around the holes. I have suggested one, build the stuff to build stuff on the moon out of stuff on the moon or from asteroids, we have the technology, we need to refine the engineering. Barring some unfortunate mishap, asteroid samples(larger than anticipated) are now on their way back to earth. Build moon bases now, adapt them to purpose as more is known, small nuclear on the moon, minimal safety, no shielding, crazy idea for waste disposal, let the old reactors go critical and melt their way into the moon. Recovering any usable waste materials for bombs would be a challenge, let any terrorist who is crazy enough to try do it. They could be allowed to practice in the basements of Chernobyl, most likely a self limiting problem.

        Frustration: here on OFW, I have learned a great deal and probably contributed little, you guys are too smart for me. But, when something does not work and seems impossible due to immutable laws of physics, I give up and try something else.

        If in any way this sounds sarcastic or is personally offending, it was not meant that way, I am really working on that.

        Dennis L.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Never trust people that is vested in something.

          Businesses need a prosperous future.

          People want their children to have a better tomorrow.

          People want to stay relevant and earn some dole.

          Middle age yahoos want their pension funds to stay solvent.

          Thus, the amount of debt, hopium and delusion in circulation is staggering.

          Nope, ain’t gonna happen folks. Austerity is coming your way.

          “Hope is for suckers”
          — Alan Watts

        • Lidia17 says:

          Dennis, I think you should instead up your sarcasm and offense capacity. That might help with your frustration issues!

          If you want serious and non-sarcastic answers to your questions, though,
          1.) we are not going to the moon because we can’t go to the moon
          2.) if we could, it would anyway cost more in energy than any energy acquired

          I don’t really think you are less smart than anyone on here. I think you may just need to adjust your framing and not allow yourself to get distracted by shiny objects. There is something very Star-Trek / “make it so” about these sorts of space “solutions”. “What we have to lose” by wasting money, time, and energy in extraterrestrial projects is all the money, time, and energy we could be putting into .. oh, I don’t know.. insulating houses.. or distributing birth control.. I’m sure Artleads could do something with several trillions. We have a giant nuclear reactor in space right now, and could be spending money on better-capturing that energy in natural or low-tech ways.

          Lastly, ok..
          3.) Let’s pretend there is a nuclear reactor on the moon (I can’t believe I am writing this, but I am trying to exercise my anti-sarcasm muscle).

          Then what? We build a nuclear reactor on the moon, and somehow beam the power down to earth. That allows us to.. do what? Stream more videos? Illuminate more highways and parking lots? A moon reactor would only be another consumption expense.

          Humans have only employed electricity at scale for 100 years or so, and there are still many hundreds of millions of people who live without access to electricity today. None of humans’ non-electric needs will be served by a moon reactor, and all the pollution and expense of building the moon reactor would still be borne on earth (mining fuel and metals, concrete?, electronics, etc.) plus all the pollution and expense of building and fuelling the thousands of rockets that would be needed to theoretically boost all that stuff many miles into the sky). If you still think this is viable, please send your credit card details to lidiaseventeen@gmail.com. Thank you!

          ==
          Then, have you thought exactly how this moon reactor would *generate* the electricity? Right now, heat from fission boils water. There is no water on the moon. There is also no way to moderate temperature on the moon (right now, water is used for that). Again, there’s no water on the moon. Will we ship water up there? What are the conductive properties of copper and insulators at +275°F / -275°F? How will electronics needed to run any sort of reactor work under these daily extreme temperature swings?

          Oh, and it all has to work in what is essentially a vacuum.

          I don’t at all believe that “we have the technology” to build a nuclear reactor on the moon. Why do you believe that we do? It’s certainly possible that I am ignorant of technologies which will resolve the above issues.

          I rather think that monies currently allocated to “space” anything mask to whatever degree black-budget defense and intelligence slush funds rather than being anything actually in support of a living-human space presence. With a kinder, gentler, flavor of cynicism, these programs could be viewed as make-work for smart people, just as -say- the Departments of Education or of Health and Human Services create a lot of make-work for the mediocre, all in support of the MPP.

          • Kowalainen says:

            Going to the moon will happen nonetheless, because there is rocketry that can reach orbit.

            Yes, energy beams is a silly concept.

            Transmute elements on the moon and catapult fissile materials back to the front lawn of the processing facilities on earth.

            You’ll see the tune about having a nuke in your backyard change in a hurry once the rolling blackouts become more prevalent.

            It will take some time to get people waned off the obscenities of consumerist bonanza IC.

            The useless eaters will suffer most. The artisanry will simply shrug their shoulders for the most part and go on with life as long as there is food on the table and shit to do.

            One thing is for certain, if you don’t get the artisanry under your umbrella, nothing is what you got.

            No artisanry – no bread and circuses.

            • Lidia17 says:

              Wait.. so “once we have rolling blackouts” we will be able to “catapault” radioactive materials down to earth and build nukes in our back yards? How would that not simply continue to contribute to the “consumerist bonanza” of IC?

              What/who is it that you mean by “artisanry”? Bespoke shoes? Illuminated manuscripts? Scrimshaw? Most artisanry I can think of uses materials not found on the moon. (You pointed to the main ingredient, which is food. Nothing about space or nuclear energy has anything positive to do with food production.)

              “Artisanry” is kind of a new-fangled word, coined to indicate things made by hand, and only has particular meaning in a world where things have come to *not* be made by hand. When everything was made by hand, most people were “artisans” of one sort or another.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Who, exactly, do you think builds these machines that supports the consumerist bonanza?

              It is not something that materialize out of thin air.

              The 21’st century artisanry builds machines, programs welding robots, operate CNC machinery, uses nail guns for building houses, etc.

              Do you get my point?

              Instigating some drama with the useless eaters will lead nowhere – fast.

              The real power behind TPTB is the manufacturers and providers of bread and circuses, and is their fundament of existence and power.

              The #1 priorities of the artisanry is having bread on the table and shit to do. You know, going on with this thing called life.

          • Slow Paul says:

            Very good. Space anything won’t solve any problems. Anything anything won’t solve any problems either. I think what Dennis is saying is that we might as well go further down the path of “progress” (i.e. space) since there is nothing else to pursue. The opposite mindset would be to just enjoy life and live each day like it’s your last. The luxury of the latter is ensured by all the people working for individual or collective “progress”, which keeps the wheels of BAU turning. There will always be people of both sorts, balancing each other, defining each other. Cheers!

          • Dennis L. says:

            One at a time:

            “I don’t at all believe that “we have the technology” to build a nuclear reactor on the moon. Why do you believe that we do? It’s certainly possible that I am ignorant of technologies which will resolve the above issues.”

            It is a one way trip for the first reactor, the power stays on the moon. There is water on the moon. Build a small reactor or reactors on earth, send them, unlike the moon missions, we are not returning them. Energy is the master resource, first thing to do is find materials to build more master resources, think breeder reactors in space. I am not a nuclear engineer, I expect it is hard, but it is easier than making anything of value with solar cells.

            For the first fifty years the only use of energy on the moon is to build an industrial plant, that plant builds reactors as well. Also build say 1000 asteroid explorers, find asteroids rich in metals. The moon is not the gravitational well the earth is, use up the moon as we have done the earth, mine asteroids and when we run out of them, something will turn up. Move industrial processes off earth, there aren’t many resources here anyhow, e. g. zinc soon runs out, yes zinc. The moon is closer to the resources.

            Writing carefully and thoughtfully is quite a project, I shall leave the others to later other than basic shelter. We have codes in part due to fire, buildings don’t burn like they used to when I was young, Art’s shelters would burn like crazy, firefighting was a dangerous job in the fifties, fires in cities could get out of hand, Chicago. We forget history as there is so much of it.

            Dennis L.

            • Jason says:

              We either go off planet or we reduce the population greatly. No body will volunteer to die, look at how crazy people are going now to keep the old and weak from dying of a strong case of the flu. So it will be starvation, roaming gangs, and disease, or war. I prefer to go out fighting if that is the choice. The noble warrior, or the starving beggar, which would you choose?

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              “We either go off planet or we reduce the population greatly.”

              true, and going “off planet” is impossible, so that leaves only one possible future.

              if food supply lines fail, there will be a very brief period of “fighting” for food.

              that does not sound “noble” to me.

              noble death and ignoble death: all paths lead to the nothingness of eternal death.

              I’m not worried.

              bAU tonight, baby!

            • JesseJames says:

              Dennis, I get that you are suggesting that if we had a self sustaining industrial “economy” on the moon that it could potentially exploit the resources there and perhaps in space. But there are no lubricants on the moon. There can be no machines without them. But the real problem is that the remote, automated, robotic system you are proposing on the moon is of such immense complexity that we are unable to design it, build it or operate it.

              We can’t even get a version of Windows Software to not give the blue screen of death occasionally. We have never come up with a system to automatically deal with reliability failures of equipment. This is why we have repair technicians, service centers, warranty, mean time to failure, etc. the only system we have is with people building, repairing and maintaining things. Gail hit it on the head…it is all very complex, and it constantly fails.

              Your dream of a self sustaining, robotic industrial “civilization” is, well, science fiction. We are not there yet. AI is very much a dream at this point. We are imperfect. Any machine we will design will be imperfect and fail.

              Keep on dreaming bro.

        • I agree with these other folks that building electricity generation on the moon wouldn’t work.

          There is really a group of engineers working on the idea of putting solar panels in space (with would produce electricity 24/7/almost 365), and beaming the electricity back to earth. This would be a whole lot closer than the moon. This project is viewed is many years away, certainly more than 20. People write papers each year and make small steps, but the goal is still far away.

          Electricity is hard to transport; even if you could make it on the moon, getting it down to earth, and then to the many places in the earth where it is needed would be a huge problem.

          And then there is the problem that electricity doesn’t really substitute for the many uses for oil, natural gas, and coal. I know that Keith Henson talks about making a liquid fuel using excess electricity (perhaps ammonia) and building devices that use it, to work around the liquid fuel issue. Even doing this adds many years and steps to the process.

          A major problem is the “complexity” issue. If a hunter-gatherer can gather his own food, the situation is not very complex. There is no need for a complex organizational structure. Perhaps one person can be in charge, and say, “you folks go east today, and you folks go west.” Whatever is gained can be shared quite evenly. There isn’t a big organizational structure taking a big “cut of the take.”

          Your moon idea would leave essentially no jobs for the worker with little technical training. It would need a highly complex organization. The highly complex organization would demand the use of the virtually the entire output of the system, simply because there is diminishing returns to complexity, and we are already reaching diminishing returns to complexity.

          We need a system that is less complex than we have now, not a system that is more complex than we have now. The self-organizing economy may be “working” to give us a less complex economy by “taking out” a significant number of people who are too old or sick to contribute to the economy. This would help reduce some of the overhead of the system. We cannot afford a healthcare system that costs as much as it does today. We need citizens who are healthier to begin with.

          We cannot afford a system that requires as much education as ours does today. People who work in computer science are especially plagued by this problem. Whatever you learned last week is likely already out of date because someone has already come up with a new way of doing things. People at age 35 or 40 find themselves without a job, because they cannot find employers who want them for more than 6 months with precisely the job skills that they have. It becomes impossible for people to plan their lives around such a bizarre system. They find it hard to buy a home and have a family, like dentists and other people from the “old economy” could. They need to spend a huge share of their time on education and looking for new jobs, but even this doesn’t necessarily work. They may need to find a new career because they get so burned out from this one.

          • Dennis L. says:

            1. Electricity: I am not thinking of moving it to earth, I am thinking more like making aluminum which is done electrically, the electricity is shipped as a soda can for example. Nuclear is denser energy than oil, see 3 for getting things off the moon. Most industrial processes are electrical, steel can be done electrically, aluminum, fissionable materials, plastics(thinking of injection molding). Feed stocks are a small part of the oil use, build those on earth or wait until Saturn, from NASA “Saturn’s orange moon Titan has hundreds of times more liquid hydrocarbons than all the known oil and natural gas reserves on Earth, according to new data from NASA’s Cassini spacecraft. The hydrocarbons rain from the sky, collecting in vast deposits that form lakes and dunes.”

            2. We cannot beam more energy to earth, radiation of additional energy back to space becomes an issue, seems fairly well documented. Waste heat is pollution no matter how pure the source.

            3. Build it on the moon, much less need for trucking, drop it to earth. Moon, first approximation use a space elevator with existing materials.

            4. “We need citizens who are healthier to begin with.” Ellis Island was to keep out the unfit. Eugenics was prevalent to some degree up to the early seventies in the US, more than one woman with a child on welfare was convinced to have her tubes tied. Try that one today. Sweden practiced eugenics until about 1975. “As an early leading force in the field of eugenics, California became the third state in the United States to enact a sterilization law. By 1921, California had accounted for 80% of the sterilizations nationwide. This continued until World War II, after which the number of sterilizations began to decrease, largely due to the fallout of Hitler’s eugenics movement.[1] There were about 20,000 forced sterilizations in California between 1909 and 1963” Wikipedia.

            5 Now tell a mother of a deformed child who will need medical attention all his/her life to abort it. That like the population issue I shall defer on.

            6. Not sure about the cake, I think the big cheese always gets the cake and if he plays his cards right gets first choice of the women. That is always an interesting combination, there is always one Cleopatra who knows how to play her cards right to her Anthony.

            7. In an earlier post I passed on the jobs thing, Gail, I am selling hope, a chicken in every pot – didn’t that work before? Well, not so well, Hoover and the Depression as I recall. I don’t have a clue on the jobs, it is moot if we are in a depleted world with no resources from what I see.

            8. Education is becoming virtually free, on line education has it all, tutors in languages, mathematics, woodworking, fixing cars, machining, various other recreations which we shall not delve into further. Expensive universities are done, if one can’t attend class, no networking, no value. Grade school, how much time does a teacher spend with each child? 20 students, 720 minute day, 36 minutes per student – does it have to be personal, can it be remote? How much of the day is spent teaching the latest social theory of the day?

            9. Healthcare: that is an interesting one, too many obese people, too many oddball diseases – that may be secondary to the “pill.” It is said the pill makes women less selective, some say the sense of smell helps rule out bad gene pairings. Modern society sometimes is overpowering biology for the right looks, the right job, etc.

            10. Can’t argue about keeping up. Get to be 50 as a dentist and hiring young help is impossible, your patients become older, young don’t want you, your older patients die, move to Florida, or stop caring. “17th-century English life expectancy was only about 35 years, largely because infant and child mortality remained high. Life expectancy was under 25 years in the early Colony of Virginia, and in seventeenth-century New England, about 40 percent died before reaching adulthood.” That is genetic selection at work, didn’t have to worry much about burnout.

            Complexity is not without benefits. You give the example of a computer programmer, think of a hunter gather who can no longer out run his fellow hunter when being chased by a bear. Old joke.

            It is not going to be as easy as it was, but maybe not as tough as it has been. I would rather shoot for the moon and have some stuff to divide up than fight over nothing.

            Gail, I am accepting your conclusions about what is, looking for what can be, can’t out run the bear anymore.

            Dennis L.

          • Kowalainen says:

            The complexity will be encoded in software.

            There is no need for complicated and obscure organizations these days.

            Once stuff starts to move automatically on the moon, the primates will rocket themselves back home, Gaia.

            Her synthetic offspring will move on .

            It is why it is so silly worrying about mankind. Our ‘zest’ will be encoded into the synthetics “DNA”, for good and for worse.

            Look, we have been here on earth for some 200.000 years and most likely experienced a few ice ages.

            Now we worry about what? A collapse of the finance racket when the earth still is relatively stocked up on energetic materials.

            The only thing worth worrying about is going full bore over the Seneca cliff and find ourselves with more suck than what has to be.

          • Dennis L. says:

            Paragraph one electrical generation has been done in the sixties, technology more or less proven, transportation proven, reactor had some issues.

            Total weight of command module and lunar lander about 99K pounds or 50 tons.

            Weight of ML-1 Nuclear power system about 38 tons.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ML-1

            The Army built and used a number of plants in this program, ANPP.
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_Nuclear_Power_Program

            The cost of the whole Apollo program was $156B in today’s dollars, trivial it would seem. The Apollo program sent 7missions to the moon, seven reactors on the surface, a good start. Cost per launch in 2019 dollars about $1.23B

            Next start drilling holes, find out what is there, mine what is needed, mining equipment works fine on electricity, that is how coal was mined for years – a long, high voltage extension cord.

            Drilling rigs can be much lighter on the moon, the drill string will be much lighter, only need a heavy turntable anchored to the moon.

            If it fails, so what? Oil is leaving us, we are not leaving oil.

            In 1962 JFK had this in his speech:

            “We choose to go to the Moon. We choose to go to the Moon…We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard; because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win, and the others, too.

            What the hell happened to us that we quote an alcoholic loser like Watts who states, “Hope is for suckers?”

            Dennis L.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Going to the moon has nothing to do with hope. It is inevitable. It will happen. No amount of whinging from the usless eaters vested in the consumerist bonanza, finance and FF racket will change that.

              Rockets will lift up gear and humans into orbit and continue the journey to the moon. Wether it is tractable to do mining on the moon remains to be seen. Do it we will. This has nothing to do with hope.

              Back to you, what you want is a better tomorrow for yourself, your children and grandchildren. I.e. you are vested. Your hope is compulsory, it is an instinct.

              Isn’t it time to let it go instead of being silly?

              Even a manic depressive alcoholic such as Ernest Hemingway can occasionaly have a clarity and insight. The same holds true for Alan Watts.

              Repeat after me:
              “Hope is for Suckers”
              — Alan Watts

              https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/client/q_glossy,ret_img,w_777/https://yodaquote.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/No-Try-not-Do-or-do-not-there-is-no-try-Yoda-quotes.jpg

              😊

  5. misanthropr#7 says:

    “‘Don’t you see that the whole aim of Newspeak is to narrow the range of thought? In the end we shall make thoughtcrime literally impossible, because there will be no words in which to express it.’” Orwell 1984

    • Kowalainen says:

      Around here it seems to have the opposite effect. That could be the intention behind it. For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

      The MSM narratives are so bonkers one starts to wonder WTF is actually going on. Like that lack of coverage in the Biden family shady business shenanigans.

      • Z says:

        Imagine this….Americans actually pay for FOX,CNN,MSNBC, etc.

        Americans literally pay to get brainwashed and propagandized.

        IS it any wonder the country is so screwed up?

        • Kowalainen says:

          In socialist Sweden, we get taxed to get our daily dose of delusions and comforting lies.

          At least you guys got a goddamn choice.

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          yes, this place is nutts.

          NBC just “discovered” some sort of 64 page fayke news about the Bidens, which no one has been talking about, and which NBC then debunked as being fayke, which of course it is.

          this is how deep the disinfo is being piled on, using this fayke 64 page thing to try to make the public doubt all the other solid info about the Biden Crime Family: texts, emails, audio/video recordings, actual hard drive in Hunter Biden’s actual laptop (in FBI hands since 2019), testimony under oath by business associates of the Bidens.

          to get a President Harris?

          time will tell.

          • Tim Groves says:

            Seems to me the Dems are trying to lose. They shoehorned old Joe into place when there were far more popular and attractive candidates available. And adding Harris to the ticket has alienated a good deal more of the support base.

            The plan appears to be to get Trump re-elected and have four more years of bickering, agitating and tearing the nation apart at the seems.

            At the bottom of this scheme I see all the hallmarks of that merciless criminal genius Dr. Fu Manchu.

            https://youtu.be/33mJRSKipbw

            • Bei Dawei says:

              Only one person can thwart this insidious deep state plot to re-elect Trump, and that person is Trump himself! He seems to be succeeding.

              There is no “the Democrats,” there are only a variety of competing individuals and interest groups. Harris is VP candidate because there was pressure to pick a black-ish woman, and she was the most presentable. And party elders rallied behind Biden, because otherwise it would have been Sanders. Maybe Sanders could have won against Trump, but then what? Certainly the Dem margin of victory would be smaller, and they’d have to negotiate with Republicans to get anything done. (No evidence that Sanders is capable of this sort of politics–he’s always been a backbencher.) And Mayor Pete may be better looking than Biden, or Sanders, but he’s only a mayor.

              As an aside, Fu Manchu was only a villain in the eyes of the British, whose agent Neyland Smith expressed support for the KMT. Fu was apparently a Qing loyalist.

  6. misanthropr#7 says:

    Social media will censor any claims of victory election night if they are misinformation. Who decides if they are misinformation? The same social media. They have created boxes. The biggest box is labeled misinformation. Anything they wish to suppress they place in a box.

  7. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    StrAnGE InDEed!
    Exxon Warns of $30 Billion Shale Writedown Amid Record Loss
    (Bloomberg) — Exxon Mobil Corp. warned it may take up to $30 billion in writedowns on natural gas fields as crashing energy demand and prices spurred a historic losing streak.
    Exxon is confronting one of its biggest crises since Saudi Arabia began nationalizing its oilfields in the 1970s. If the company takes the full $30 billion impairment, it will be the industry’s worst in more than a decade, according to Bloomberg data.
    The company lost $680 million, or 15 cents a share, during the third quarter, compared with the 25-cent per-share loss forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. The shares fell 1.3% to $32.53 at 9:34 a.m. in New York and are down more than 50% for the year.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-historic-losing-streak-adds-113144017.html

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tHOK87ozcho

    The 60s never died just faded away…

    • Minority Of One says:

      There is a precedent for this.

      The Kashagan oil field offshore Kazakhstan in the Caspian Sea was THE oil field that peak oil deniers used to quote as evidence that we still had plenty of oil to find. Indeed it is a huge oil field, maybe up to 13 B barrels of recoverable reserves (although you have to ask, at what oil price).

      There are two issues that make it very expensive to develop. Firstly because the Caspian freezes over in winter, they had to build an island to hold the drilling equipment etc. Secondly the oil contains high levels of hydrogen sulphide, a highly toxic gas which requires expensive special equipment to process.

      There was a consortium of oil companies that developed the field, which was just as well. I seem to remember a couple of years ago the consortium wrote off $65 billion in costs to date that they had no chance of recovering.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashagan_Field

      This article from the WSJ suggests $50 B. Nice graphics.

      The Kashagan Debacle – How four energy giants, 10 man-made islands and nearly $50 billion add up to zero barrels of current oil production
      http://graphics.wsj.com/the-kashagan-debacle/#the-timeline

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        Exxon Pays Off Shareholders, Lays Off Workers
        https://earther.gizmodo.com/exxon-pays-off-shareholders-lays-off-workers-1845521977
        Brian Kahn

        The tragedy of Exxon continues. On Thursday, the company said it expects to lay off roughly 14,000 workers over the next year. The huge reduction comes even as it pays out shareholders, albeit at a flat level for the first time in nearly four decades.

        The tumult hitting what was once the biggest, baddest oil company in the U.S. shows how the pandemic has accelerated the nascent decline of oil into a somersaulting downhill plunge. It also illustrates how the companies still standing will likely prioritize shareholders over workers until the bitter end.

        The layoffs come amid a record slump in oil demand, which has sped up trends already underway before the pandemic. Exxon said in a press release there will be roughly 1,900 layoffs in the U.S., mostly at its headquarters in Houston. More layoffs are expected globally through next year, resulting in a 15% decrease in its workforce of contractors and full-time employees.
        ….“Exxon has hung onto the dividend but cut first employee pensions and now jobs,” Paul Spedding, a research advisor at Carbon Tracker who authored the analysis, said in an emailed statement. “The volatile nature of employment in a cyclical industry highlights the need to plan ahead as the world moves off fossil fuels. Exxon’s plan to keep increasing production may lead to more hard times for shareholders and workers.”

        BAU is like crack cocaine….a habit that is impossible to quit without killing oneself and on the end it will kill you too

      • There is actually a little oil now produced from the Kashagan Field. https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/podcasts/oil/102920-peak-oil-china-demand

        Annual output from the Kashagan field [in 2019] rose 6.9% to 296,000 b/d, according to the KMG statement. However, with production ramping up, output averaged 422,000 b/d in the third quarter, the operating consortium has said. In the fourth quarter, Kashagan output dropped back to 344,000 b/d on average, KMG said Wednesday, likely reflecting a gas compressor issue disclosed in November. KMG holds an 8.44% stake in the consortium that operates Kashagan.

  8. Tim Groves says:

    The UK is now a genuine dictatorship with a totalitarian government.
    An excellent analysis with facts and figures from Paul Weston.

    https://youtu.be/KZzBc3ANuMc

  9. Oh dear says:

    Re: another Scottish independence poll

    Details of another poll on opinion regarding Scottish independence, conducted in September, have just been made public. This one is by JL Partners. That makes twelve consecutive polls this year to show majority support for independence.

    In particular Scots are none too keen on Boris Johnson and he is putting many of them right off the UK. Scotland has not voted for the TP for generations (1959 GE), and they seem to have had enough of being ruled by the party that they do not vote for.

    Scots are also motivated by Brexit, which they voted against, and the TP handling of c 19.

    The poll found a 12 point lead with 56% support for independence to 44% against. Ipsos-Mori two weeks ago found a 16 point lead with support at 58% to 42%, the highest ever level of support for independence.

    JL Partners also found SNP with 58% support for the 2021 Holyrood elections, which would be an undeniable mandate for a referendum.

    > ‘Loathing’ of Boris Johnson fueling surge in support for Scottish independence: poll

    Exclusive JL Partners polling found a 12-point lead for a Yes vote in any future Scottish independence referendum.

    LONDON — Boris Johnson’s leadership is the biggest factor driving swing voters in Scotland towards backing independence, according to an extensive new analysis of public opinion on a fresh referendum.

    Brexit, the U.K. government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and a desire to settle the question once and for all were among the most persuasive arguments for independence among undecided and swing voters surveyed as part of polling by JL Partners, the firm led by Theresa May’s former pollster James Johnson. But none proved as persuasive as the argument: “Boris Johnson is not the leader I want to have for my country” — a sentiment 79 percent of swing voters agreed with.

    The poll of 1,016 Scottish voters, conducted in September and shared exclusively with POLITICO, gave independence a 56 to 44 percent lead, excluding those who said they did not know. The 12-point lead is in line with other recent polls showing a growing lead for a Yes vote in any future referendum. POLITICO’s latest Poll of Polls puts the lead for Yes at 50 to 42, with 8 percent undecided. Fifty-five percent of voters backed “no” in Scotland’s first independence referendum in 2014.

    Worryingly for Downing Street, the study also found that the U.K. government’s current opposition to holding another independence referendum would prove unpopular should First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party (SNP) win a majority in next May’s Scottish parliament elections, with 53 percent of swing voters surveyed last month saying the U.K. government would be wrong to deny a new referendum in that scenario.

    An SNP majority in Scotland is considered increasingly likely, with the poll putting the party well ahead on 58 percent of the constituency vote….

    “It is hard not to look at these figures and assume the Union is doomed. It is certainly the gravest situation the Unionist cause has found itself in in recent history,” James Johnson said….

    https://www.politico.eu/article/loathing-of-boris-johnson-fueling-surge-in-support-for-scottish-independence-poll/

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      Scotland is way left of their reactionary southern neighbors—
      It is time to leave.

      • avocado says:

        Will they need violence to leave? Remember that Fauci and Bill Gates say that more epidemics are possible…

        • Kowalainen says:

          If the current intermezzo won’t cut it, expect slightly more zing in the next bout of viral hoopla.

          Get in line, this is the return to LTG Scenario 3. Learn to like it. Stop being an entitled IC princess.

          “Hope is for suckers”
          — Alan Watts

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            Watts was correct.
            I had him once a week as a guest professor.
            Lose hope——

            • Dennis L. says:

              Did a bit of research on him, at age 14 he went with a Francis Croshaw to Europe and had his first drink. Vera, Croshaw’s wife, thought it great to lounge in the bedroom and read – Watt’s autobiography, “On My Own Way.” Hmm, an older woman lounging in a bedroom with a 14 year old, okay it was intellectual, I get it.

              At 21 I once dated a 33 year old teacher, seem to recall bedroom talk, some “lounging,” don’t recall much reading. Much less intellectual I would guess. Man, that gal is now 85-86, how time does fly.

              Watts died at 58 from alcoholism. Guess he didn’t get into the 12 steps.

              Duncan, sorry, I prefer Hope, she was a blond as I recall.

              Had to have something lighter after all that moon talk, really prefer moon walking myself, Michael J.

              Dennis L.

            • JMS says:

              Our neural circuitry prefers the blonde Hope to the ugly and toothless Truth. That’s why we are here, at the edge of this excellent precipice.

          • avocado says:

            I don’t understand very much what you say. I just don’t like people that can hurt my situation without even getting an improvement for themselves

            • Kowalainen says:

              Unenlightened self interest does not impress me.

              I eat my bowls of potatoes, rice and beans a day and crank out the wattage on my bicycle.

              What you would call ‘austerity’.

              Have faith, it will come your way as well. Learn to like it. I know I do.

              Obscenities of IC isn’t really a thing for rapacious primates.

              🙂

        • Oh dear says:

          • Ed says:

            The day comes when gold has no value. When the issue is food. Then the Scots will breathe free. We in the colonies will be happy to come and join you in your effort to be free to thrown of the parasitic English.

            • Bei Dawei says:

              For the life of me, I don’t see why Boris Johnson doesn’t just un-devolve the Scottish parliament and declare new assimilationist policies. After all, there are way more English than Scots. He won’t get their votes anyway, but he will get more English votes if he shows them who’s boss.

        • Nehemiah says:

          ” Fauci and Bill Gates say that more epidemics are possible…” — IOW, they are saying what anyone with two brain cells to rub together has known since primary or middle school. Anyone who has ever cracked a decent history book knows that pestilence and plague are recurring features of human existence. They are not merely “possible” but inevitable.

          • Tim Groves says:

            Anyone who has two brain cells and spends their time rubbing them together is probably going to end up scared again by each new hyped plague and idestined to remain clueless as to what’s really going on in the world of gargantuan global government.

            Solution? Get more brain cells and stop rubbing them together.

            https://www.henrymakow.com/upload_images/TIME-covid.jpeg

          • Minority Of One says:

            Except the Gates and Fauci seem to be referring to the manufactured, gain-of-function type of virus, that can be released on demand.

    • Erdles says:

      Yawn!

    • Kowalainen says:

      I’m tired of hearing about the Scots, just nuke Glasgow, Aberdeen and Edinburgh and be done with it.

      Call it a day on their rebellious rear ends.

  10. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Zambia’s Looming Default Is Only the Start of a Global Reckoning With Debt.”

    https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/29173/the-looming-zambia-default-is-only-the-start-of-a-global-reckoning-with-debt

  11. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The economic crisis of pandemic deepens as 40% of South Africans who applied for a loan are not sure if they can pay it.”

    https://fourwaysreview.co.za/361505/the-economic-crisis-of-pandemic-deepens-as-40-of-south-africans-who-applied-for-a-loan-are-not-sure-if-they-can-pay-it/

  12. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The government will close the furlough scheme this weekend, with redundancies rising at the fastest rate on record and the second wave of Covid-19 pushing Britain’s economy to the brink of a double-dip recession.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/30/covid-19-second-wave-pushing-uk-to-brink-of-double-dip-recession

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “There are many potentially bearish catalysts today including election uncertainty, a deteriorating economic outlook, and a possible deflationary wave.

      “Few assets including alternatives like gold and long-term bonds are safe in a liquidity shock.”

      https://seekingalpha.com/article/4382592-vgsh-stocks-are-crashing-cash-is-king

    • The author may be correct.

    • I didn’t notice this, earlier:

      This past Monday, Europe’s largest tech stock [German software company] crashed a pitiful 23%—wiping out $33 billion in investors’ money.

      SAP caught investors off guard by reporting a surprise drop in sales. The software giant also slashed its business outlook for the full year—expecting lockdowns to hurt sales through the first half of 2021.

      It turns out that all of the big software stocks are down. People didn’t realize that even software purchases were adversely affected by the COVID downturn.

  13. Harry McGibbs says:

    “A disturbing new signal from the Credit Default Swaps market:

    “Falling prices at auctions suggest trouble ahead for lenders to beleaguered companies… four-fifths of US loans issued last year were “covenant-lite”, that is they had little or no control over borrower behaviour, up from one-fifth at the start of the decade. That is because investors are so desperate to chase returns in a zero-rate world that they no longer dare to impose covenants.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/43c721a7-03b9-40d1-9d9f-ef319b923909

  14. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The European Central Bank is increasingly worried that economic damage from Covid-19 could mutate into a full-blown financial crisis, setting off a second downward leg in the recession and deep scarring of the productive system.

    “Christine Lagarde, the ECB’s president, warned that risks are “clearly, clearly, tilted to the downside” and pledged a fresh blast of stimulus in December using “all instruments”. Such a clear signal breaks with the institution’s long-standing rule that it never commits in advance.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/29/ecb-fears-covid-could-trigger-financial-crisis/

  15. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Walmart is removing firearms and ammunition off the sales floor in some of its US stores in response to protests in Philadelphia following the police shooting of Walter Wallace Jr.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/29/business/walmart-guns-ammo/index.html

  16. Harry McGibbs says:

    “A professor who infected himself with coronavirus for a second time to study the effectiveness of antibodies says hopes for herd immunity are overblown. Dr Alexander Chepurnov, 69, caught Covid-19 for the first time in February during a skiing trip in France.”

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/29/scientist-who-infected-himself-twice-says-herd-immunity-hopes-are-futile-13501883/

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Hopes that the population will become immune to COVID-19 have been dashed by new research showing antibodies fall rapidly after recovering from the disease…

      “Professor Helen Ward, one of the researchers, said the new results strongly suggest that herd immunity is unachievable.”

      https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-herd-immunity-hopes-dashed-as-study-shows-covid-19-antibodies-fall-rapidly-after-recovery-12115510

      • HDUK says:

        T cells are also very important……………..The vaccines appear to be focusing on antibodies though, not that I would have a vaccine, I don’t trust much at the moment. There is a lot of scaremongering out there re C19….Hope you are well Harry and thank you for continually keeping us all informed, hope you are stocked up on Vit D.
        https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity
        The teams also asked whether people who haven’t been infected with SARS-CoV-2 also produce cells that combat it. Thiel and colleagues analyzed blood from 68 uninfected people and found that 34% hosted helper T cells that recognized SARS-CoV-2. The La Jolla team detected this crossreactivity in about half of stored blood samples collected between 2015 and 2018, well before the current pandemic began. The researchers think these cells were likely triggered by past infection with one of the four human coronaviruses that cause colds; proteins in these viruses resemble those of SARS-CoV-2.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          You are welcome, HDUK. I’m doing well, thank you and hope you likewise.

          I’m just about to take the Labrador on her walk and, miraculously, the sun is shining here so I shall be soaking up as much Vit D as I can!

        • I wonder if all of the social distancing is reducing exposure to colds, and thus reducing indirect T cell immunity.

      • We have sort of suspected that immunity levels fall quickly for a long time.

  17. MG says:

    The protests in Poland regarding abortion law do not cease:

  18. Dennis L. says:

    Saw this today, coming to a restaurant near you.

    Robotic kitchen.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/white-castle-automate-kitchens-contactless-shift-will-accelerate-job-loss

    Ugh! Walked to my pub,:Poncho(kitchen) had to take some guff from a waitress, he smiled, a bit of humor. Robots would not smile, I go to see humans, talk to a human, laugh with a human. Not sure if they have a robot to clean the robot which makes one inquire which one or who cleans the robot doing the cleaning?

    Maybe soon we can be hooked up to electrodes and the whole experience put into our brains, sounds terrific.

    Dennis L.

    • KSU eating areas require that all orders be placed using Grub Hub. If all of your devices are low on battery electricity, this becomes a problem. Fortunately, some of them have stations where a person can recharge.

      The purpose of going through Grub Hub seems to be to reduce human interaction. The money changing goes through the web site. A person gets a notice when his order is ready, so no need to stand in line with others. This isn’t robots, but a step in this direction. We experienced something similar when ordering food at small stands in Japan.

    • Lidia17 says:

      Our town has sponsored “Community Lunches” in the past. It’s now drive-through: you sign up on line and pick up a bag with your name on it. You don’t speak to anyone, even on the phone.

      • Artleads says:

        Who pays for the lunches?

        • Lidia17 says:

          I wrote the sentence in an ambiguous way (it depends on your definition of the word “has”!) kind of on purpose since I didn’t want to get bogged down in that level of detail, but here goes.

          They are not directly town-sponsored, but they take place on a monthly basis in our town at a local building with a commercial kitchen which is owned by a non-profit. In the past, lunches have been prepared by high-school kids in the vocational program. That may still happen on occasion. This lunch in particular was prepared by a restaurant which leases space from the non-profit.

          It’s not always the same group who sponsors.. might be a local insurance company, the Rotary… I’ve only been a couple of times in the past. This time it was a private charitable foundation. My point in talking about it was more the ironic deficit in actual communing surrounding the “Community Lunch”.

          • No one wants us to actually interact with anyone any more.

            I noticed in the cafeteria that the chairs were placed to keep the total occupancy fairly low (maybe 25% or 30%). But some chairs were actually quite close to others, at “bars” overlooking tables, from a perpendicular direction. People were sitting, working one school work between classes, staying for quite long periods, having coffee or tea. I can imagine COVID being spread among nearby people hanging around there.

  19. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    https://twitter.com/wesbury/status/1321793449939685377

    translation:

    USA economy is still down 3.5%

  20. Tim Groves says:

    Here’s a song for you Gail to help you recover from the storm.

    https://youtu.be/NcKtPiZ77mY

  21. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    oil prices are down but:

    natural gas $3.33 which is just about a two year high.

    • I expect that natural gas prices will vary quite a bit around the world. If Europe goes into lockdown mode, its prices will fall very low. There has been snow in quite a bit of the northern US now. This may be affecting prices. Cold weather is forecast for here in the next few days, too.

  22. Late to the Party says:

    Hawaii Covid observations
    I live on the Big Island of Hawaii in a rural area, the poorest area of Hawaii, and the cheapest, as lava does tend to flow across parts of it from time to time. The population here is mostly local groups eg. Hawaiian or Pacific Island ancestry or Asian mix, and lastly white mainlanders like myself. People have seemed to me to be very independent, identifying not as a state of USA but as it’s own culture and people and politics. I have never seen an American flag except for a few public buildings, and have seen lots of (unofficial) Kingdom of Hawaii flags or the Hawaii state flag flown upside down to indicate their nonacceptance of the state authority.
    So it surprising to me to see how willingly they accepted all the CDC and government shutdown measures. It is well known just how dependent we are on tourism. Even before Covid the local news would give numbers of how many tourists had flown in that month, and hotel occupancy rates compared to recent years etc. Currently tourists are 20 percent of normal and our unemployment is the nations highest at 15 percent. I have heard of zero mandate push back in my area and only a little from a tourism industry group on Oahu. The public here is very accepting of mandates. I interact with some locals and it seems odd to me that they are so fearful of this virus and at the same time are rebels of a sort living in makeshift houses maybe a surfer or motorcycle rider, (helmets not legally required and not usually seen.)
    Outdoor coffee shops, farmer’s markets are deserted even of locals. Lots of kids live in the district but schools are closed. This includes a large local one I had frequented that had every classroom with two doors open at all times to the outdoors. But it too is closed.
    Most people are not news junkies and don’t seem like the conditioned mass culture people I knew on the mainland, but they still are fine about being led in this matter. Myself, usually a middle of the road, rule following kind of guy find myself a rebel in complaining publicly about the loss of liberty or whatever.
    It seems like the nation and many nations are committing collective suicide by destroying the economy and livelihoods all the while fearing getting a not very deadly disease.
    I know of course that our days were numbered anyway due to factors Gail has outlined for years, but we sure are speeding things up. I am reminded of Nietzsche words “That which is falling, should be pushed.” And that we’re doing. Thanks for reading, Randy

    • Thanks for your report on what is happening on the Big Island of Hawaii. As I keep saying, people’s reaction seems very strange to me as well. People assume any chance of death should be avoided at any cost, even if there are very high indirect costs. They assume we can defeat any illness, even though it is clear this possibility must come to an end, sometime. They assume medical people should be able to make economic decisions.

    • Hubbs says:

      I wonder how many of these local islanders rely on government handouts/payments? One way to make people “obedient” is to make them helpless and dependent. Nowhere was this more clearly demonstrated than LBJ’s remarks after enacting his “Great Society” programs that he “would have those “Ns” voting Democratic for the next 200 years.”

      • One huge issue is that the tax system was fixed so that poor people were financially better off if they did not marry, in other words, they just lived together. This change has led to a lot of instability. Couples don’t stay together long when they are not married and the woman is getting benefits for being an “unmarried head of household.”

        • Artleads says:

          I wonder if it wouldn’t work better to rely less on marriage, and more on women’s “coops” to rear children. (Make it a very organic and flexible arrangement.) Undocumented Mexican immigrants do something like that now. 15 to a flat. Those who can work out. Others stay home and mind the kids. Housing would be through retrofitting what now exists and easily assembled/disassemble modular units. The MO of education would be learning by doing. Kids contribute to the community Girls’ pods, boys’ pods. Male “staff” and female “staff share tasks as appropriate, but mostly female run. So you end up having cultural separation (that can overlap with ethnicity or not), and gender separation, with some overlap…

    • Lidia17 says:

      Interesting! I just saw a figure that said tourism was 47% of the Hawaiian economy (was in the top line of a WaPo article and I don’t feel like giving Jeff the hits). Almost half of visitor spending is on Oahu, but even the island of Hawai’i was getting $6million *per day*.https://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/4167/hta-tourism-econ-impact-fact-sheet-december-2019.pdf

  23. MM says:

    Brokers read the Forbes Magazine:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/09/23/covid-19-vaccine-protocols-reveal-that-trials-are-designed-to-succeed
    The vaccinations being tested now will not reduce the threat of infections, meaning that distancing will have to be kept for ever. No recovery in sight. A lot of business will go for ever. market goes down.

    • These vaccines are expected to Do only a little for the prevention of COVID. It would seem more sensible to tell people to take vitamin D. This likely is not harmful and has some other benefits. It is also inexpensive.

      • Cirus says:

        That can’t be the case my coverment does not tell me to take vitamin D
        / sark

      • Bobby says:

        Remembering, of course vitamin D isn’t really a vitamin, it’s a hormone OFW-orlders. May your immune systems be regulated well.

  24. Dennis L. says:

    Things are serious, this is a real company, supplying real essential goods and the best in the business. Fifteen percent of the workforce cut, were I to be a pessimist, this would be the tipping point. If the dividend goes, then all pretense in the economy may end.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/exxon-firing-15-its-workers-keep-dividend

    Dennis L.

  25. misanthropr#7 says:

    Our situation reminds me of 2008. The Fed and the government created a bunch of money. It hit the economy like a sugar rush. Markets went up. There was economic activity. Then the sugar rush wore off. Markets went down. Then we returned to a normal. The normal we returned to ZIRP was not very normal. This time they have created A LOT MORE money. The sugar rush did not last as long. as far as the future who knows.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      2008 was mostly about global financial mismanagement. After global finance was manipulated, BAU returned more or less to average levels.

      2020 is very much worse. The economy in 2019 was already stagnating due to the imminent end of the centuries long increase of net (surplus) energy.

      There is no fix for this energy scenario.

      Soon, there will be a reversal of the past pattern of mostly growth years interspersed with rare recessions.

      By the end of this decade, growth years will be the rarity, and most years will be recession years.

      • VFatalis says:

        Now the question is, how long can the economy survive such prolonged contraction ?
        Under it’s current form probably no more than a few years… A decade seems impossible

        • This is the big question. How long is decline slow, and when does it speed up? My guess is that it will vary by area. The loss of electricity will be a bag step downward. Gasoline and diesel dispensing requires electricity. Natural gas heating doesn’t work without electricity. Water purification plants require electricity, chemicals, and most likely oil products. Everything is hooked together.

      • Minority Of One says:

        >>By the end of this decade, growth years will be the rarity

        I am inclined to believe that the global economy is close to popping. The current eye-watering levels of debt, globally, have got to have consequences, and economically things are going to get much worse over the next few months / year or so.

      • I think that 2008 was also about how high an oil price could be sustained. It was also about giving too much debt to people with little chance of repaying it.

        • Minority Of One says:

          I found it very odd that the price of oil climbed from about $10 /barrel in 1999 to just under $150 /barrel in 2008, and the MSM was flooded with commentators/experts, some of whom are still around, saying nothing to worry about here, move along now, plenty of oil left. And the general population believed them, or rather, they did not want to know the reality. And now, there is no new cheap-enough oil left.

  26. Minority Of One says:

    The price of oil seems to be on a downwards roll:

    INDEX UNITS PRICE
    WTI USD/bbl. 35.12
    Brent Crude USD/bbl. 36.85

    • Doesn’t sound good!

      By The way, I am without electricity right now, thanks to Tropical Storm Zeta. I have a little internet connectivity through my phone, at least until the battery wears down. There seem to be thousands of people without power, so I am not optimistic that it will be back any time soon.

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        The remnants of Zeta are headed over here to the UK once it’s done with you, Gail. Hope you get your power back soon.

        • Duncan Idaho says:

          Over 2.9 million electric customers without power across southern USA.

        • When I was out walking, I saw a tree down that took a bunch of wires down. I imagine that is the problem. There are actually several trees and large limbs down in the neighborhood. I am sure there are a lot of areas with similar problems. Eventually, a truck will come by and fix the problem. The UK has enough problems. It doesn’t need a tropical storm!

      • Minority Of One says:

        When I was a lad, back in the day, early 1970s, power cuts were common due to strikes. I don’t remember much about them except that for me they were fun and a thrill, being only 9-10 y.o. Difficult to see how the UK could cope with extensive power cuts now.

        • Still no power now. We bought batteries for flashlights and a bag of ice to Putin the refrigerator.

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            Putin?

            I know it’s a typo, but it’s funny.

            it is election season, though I haven’t yet seen the damage caused by storms blamed on Russian disinformation.

            Biden and associates are under an ongoing (since 2019) FBI investigation for money laundering, and most of our media refuses to report about it.

            it’s outrageously Orwellian. This is a mostly good place to live, but it is heading downhill.

      • My electricity came back on Friday afternoon, so it was out something like 34 hours. Now it is back on. We bought little headlights that use AAA batteries to wear. This helped us get around and even read the newspaper.

  27. Yoshua says:

    WTI 35.25

    Oil is breaking down again.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      of course it is.

      the profitability of economic activity is in an unrelenting irreversible decline due to the end of the growth of net (surplus) energy.

      there is always the possibility of a sudden drop in oil production, which would bring a brief spike in oil prices, but that almost enters the territory of black swans.

      the years ahead look like a continuing slog through worsening economic conditions and perpetual low oil prices.

      eventually, oil producing countries which don’t yet have control of their private production will have to nationalize in order to remove the price and profit problems and keep the oil flowing.

  28. Yoshua says:

    A woman was beheaded today in a church in France.

    • Ed says:

      Makes me appreciate US intel and police forces.

    • Oh dear says:

      France has pursued a very odd course. On the one hand, it has very many speech crime laws, like other Western European countries. All sort of subjects are subject to strict boundaries, especially with regard to minorities – gays, J ews, migrants. France has no real pretence to uphold ‘free speech’, any more than UK or other countries.

      And on the other, France ‘singles out’ for defence cartoons that are liable, and in some cases obviously intended, to provoke an inflamed response, under the pretence of ‘free speech’. All speech is controlled apart from that which is liable to provoke the worst response and to leave the most bitterness.

      One can only wonder what that ‘strategy’ is intended to achieve. It does not seem to be ‘liberty’ because France has all sorts of speech crime laws. So, what on earth do they think that they are doing? Maybe it is just a lingering RCC resentment against other religions that is behind this civil disaster? Otherwise France would be consistent with its already strict speech crime laws.

      “We ban all sorts of speech and expression, but we absolutely reserve the right to publish insulting and mocking images of other religions.”

      It is hard to see any other ‘explanation’ that ‘fits’ the facts. A defence of ‘liberty’ and ‘free speech’ does not explain the ‘strategy’ – France has loads of laws against liberty and free speech. A desire for harmonious community relations (often the reason for speech crime laws) obviously does not explain the incongruity. So what on earth is France doing?

      The result is that Macron has been forced to adopt much of the rhetorical ground of Le Pen in order to stay in office – but without the immigration controls that Le Pen would want. France seems to be handling its transition to a multicultural society spectacularly badly, and it seems doubtful that they have really thought their ‘strategy’ through.

      Obviously I am not ‘advocating’ any policy, liberal or otherwise. It is just hard to see how France has any coherent explanation of what it is doing – certainly not a defence of ‘free speech’ that it generally does not uphold, and certainly not the pursuit of harmonious community relations for which it has many laws against free speech – so what exactly does France think that it is doing?

      • Thierry38 says:

        I don’t understand what you don’t understand.
        Mocking a religion is an absolute right. A belief doesn’t define who you are.
        But mocking people who are a minority is absolutely different.
        Here in France we love to mock catholicism, the pope, why not Islam? What do you not understand?
        But maybe this a french cultural bias, I don’t know!

        • Sven Røgeberg says:

          No, its not a french cultural bias, its the spirit of the enlightenment.

          • Dennis L. says:

            How is that working?

            Dennis L.

            • Duncan Idaho says:

              Bad memes trash good policy.
              As long as ignorance and superstition, coupled with violence (a given), prevail among the hosts of religious memes, the hosts are sacrificed , as long as the meme can prevail.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Duncan, that was as a profound and sublime a nugget of wisdom as I’ve read in a long time. I shall treasure and ponder it.

              Thierry, a lot of people enjoy mocking Catholicism. But then again, Catholics will not generally kill people who mock them. Back in the days when they burned heretics and athiests at the stake, people were much more reticent to mock Catholicism openly.

              Absolute right or not, getting your head chopped off for blasphemy is a powerful disincentive to making any overt negative comments about Islam or the Prophet, Pease Be Upon Him.

              Sven, arguably, the founding of the Enlightenment was dependent on the termination of the Catholic Church’s right to retaliate physically if mocked. Since the practitioners of Islam still claim this right, then Islam is incompatible with Enlightenment values. Ultimately, the two ideologies cannot coexist in the same sociocultural space.

              However, that may not be such a big problem as in the West, Enlightenment values are now honored more in the breach than in the observance; like Avalon or Arcadia, the Enlightenment lives only in the hearts of those who are nostalgic for the good old days when everything made sense.

        • Oh dear says:

          Free speech is free speech.

          Any state that enacts limits on free speech, for whatever reason, does not have free speech.

          CCP curtails speech that is contrary to CCP values, the Saudi Arabian state curtails speech that is contrary to Islamic values, the French state curtails speech that is contrary to PC identarian values.

          All of those states have some criteria, just a different criteria, that is used to limit speech. As soon as you limit free speech according to some criteria, it is no longer free speech.

          It is not like PC identarian values are the unique criteria to limit free speech that leaves free speech intact.

          That is just entirely ‘made up’ and contrary to the facts. Controlled speech is not free speech.

          Any state can ‘say’ that it has free speech in so far as it enacts its own criteria to limit speech.

          CCP: ‘Yes, free speech, just not against CCP, that is wrong.’

          Saudi state: ‘Yes, free speech, just not against Islam, that is wrong.’

          French state: ‘Yes, free speech, just not against PC identarian values, that is wrong.’

          The values are relative to the state culture, and so are the criteria that are used to limit speech – but none of it is free speech.

          The French state has particular values that function as criteria to limit free speech. It does not have free speech, it has controlled speech. Its controls on speech are ordered to the objectives of the French state.

          All countries allow some speech but that is not free speech. Free speech is free speech and controlled speech is controlled speech.

          And who gets to decide what ‘defines’ a person? Do they get to decide that for themselves? Or do you do it for them? In any case, it is just another criteria that is used to limit speech. It is controlled speech, not free speech.

          The decision to ban all sorts of speech contrary to PC identarianism, but to allow the abuse of the religions of persons, is entirely arbitrary.

          There are no ‘commandments’ written in stone to say that is the ‘right’ approach to speech. It is entirely ‘made up’.

          And it is not free speech, it is controlled speech.

          • Yoshua says:

            We are talking about a cartoon vs. beheading someone.

            ISIS is true Islam. Islam is a brutal religion. Their prophet beheaded people. ISIS just follows true Islam.

            Christianity on the other hand produces lambs.
            .
            It’s a match in hell.

          • Thierry38 says:

            OK Oh Dear, this is indeed controlled speech. But it is a social agreement to draw the lines between what we can mock and what we cannot. It is not the state or whatever that defines it. This our culture. People admit it, that’s all.
            What you call free speech, I don’t think it really exists, anywhere.
            So let’s celebrate, as Robert says, Frenchness, the spirit of the Revolution, liberty, equality, fraternity and, in this case, a secular state”. We won’t give up on this.

            • Oh dear says:

              Then maybe the French state should put all of its speech crime laws to referenda, and find out what laws the French citizens really want. But states never do that. They are the laws of the state not of the citizens. Citizens change their opinions over many matters, so the referenda should be repeated once a generation.

              It is not ‘liberty, equality, fraternity’. It is ‘speech is controlled and banned on many matters but we can insult your religion publicly as much as we like.’ That is not liberty – it is controlled speech. It is not equality – it is freedom for some to say some things and not for others to say other things. It is not fraternity – it is simply controlled, unequal speech in a society that has a distinct lack of fraternity.

              You cannot call that ‘French culture’. The culture of France has changed through the ages. It was RC for most of its history. It is the laws that are imposed in an incoherent manner by a bourgeois state that wants to pretend that it has liberty, equality and fraternity when it has the opposite – controlled speech, unequal speech and a distinct lack of fraternity.

              All that you can say is: this is our law. You cannot justify it in any way, not rationally and not democratically. France is an unfree country that encourages the public abuse of religions – that is all it is. The French state has not got a clue what it is doing and the whole world is frankly shocked at the state of French society.

            • Oh dear says:

              The French state may be ‘secular’ in so far as it does not establish any theological religion as the basis of the state – but that does not mean that it ‘has to’ allow the public abuse of religions. That is a distinct choice that the French state makes.

              The French state is ‘multi-ethnic’, in so far as it does not establish any ethnicity as the basis of the state – but that does not mean that it allows the abuse of ethnicities. On the contrary, it prohibits that, it does not enshrine it as a ‘right’.

              For the state to have no religious or ethnic basis does not itself dictate state policy on what kinds of speech are allowed. It can mean that any speech on the matter is allowed, as with religion, or that no abuse is allowed, as with ethnicity.

              The French state has ‘singled out’ religions as the sole legitimate target for public abuse. It does not ‘have to’ do that because it is ‘secular’. It simply chooses to do that. And it has got nothing to do with ‘liberty, equality and fraternity’, it is simply a choice of the state to allow the public abuse of religions.

            • Thierry38 says:

              Oh Dear, we don’t agree, that’s all.
              “it is simply a choice of the state to allow the public abuse of religions”, and if so, who are you to tell us not doing this? If you are shocked, well stay home and don’t visit France, who cares after all? Nobody will force you to watch our cartoons.
              France is an unfree country but be careful, we do love revolutions and the next one might happen very soon.

            • Oh dear says:

              I seem to remember saying that I am not ‘advocating any policy, liberal or otherwise’. I suggested that the French state hold referenda on all speech crime laws to find out what ones, if any, the demos actually wants.

              Yes, ‘who cares’, I had no intention of visiting Paris anyway, why would I? It is a few square miles surrounded by endless suburbs of high rise housing blocks. I could visit south London if I wanted to see that. The Eiffel tower looks like an electricity pylon and we have plenty of those here. The northern countryside is quite nice but not really that different to the English countryside that I live in anyway.

              I am sure that the French state is just trembling at your ‘love’ of revolutions – even though you seem to agree with the French state anyway. Thanks for your insights.

            • Thierry38 says:

              Right for the pylon, at last we agree!
              The situation is complex here and what you call “state”, can have different meanings. Macron is not the State, just an elected president for 5 years, but his end is near. I expect many surprises.

        • Lidia17 says:

          In France you can go to jail for challenging Jews.. Iran’s ayatollah just pointed out that little discrepancy.

      • JMS says:

        “One can only wonder what that ‘strategy’ is intended to achieve.”

        The strategy is at least 50 years old and it’s called strategy of tension. It worked pretty well in Italy when the strategists realized there was a risk that the PCI would win the legislative elections, and that it was important to demonize the extreme left movements that swarmed politics at the time. Gianfranco Sanguinetti explained it all in his book “On Terrorism and the State”

        For the French state today, the useful idiots on duty are the “Islamic fundamentalists”, and its enemy is the French people, whose mania for attempting revolutions is well known. Without all the “islamic attacks” of the last 10 years it would be impossible to implement the repressive legislation neccessary to quell the coming “deluge”.

      • Robert Firth says:

        Your post made a lot of sense to me. I also agree France does not know what it is doing. It celebrates Frenchness, the spirit of the Revolution, liberty, equality, fraternity and, in this case, a secular state. And yet it has imported millions of barbarian invaders who share none of these values, who are implacably opposed to them, and who grow ever more menacing, brutal and murderous in their attempt to destroy the French state and enslave its people. And the politicians rabbit on about education and assimilation, about “French Islam”, in blind obedience to their liberal dogma, while churches are desecrated and blood flows in the street. Charles Martel knew better, and so does Marine Le Pen.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Instead of bringing people to IC, why not bring IC to people instead?

          They can secularise at their own pace and place.

          I’m sick and tired of both the elitist right wing “we are better than thou” and the nauseating left wing “white man bad” sanctimonious hypocrisy.

          How about this: Leave people alone until they ask for help? Yes, how about that for a change?

        • Dennis L. says:

          Robert, maybe the Frenchness is not a problem but a feature. We won’t have to endure a pompous group such as Deirdre, think of French Islam as a cleansing, what do they gain? Minerals, none, philosophy, nonesense, some old reactors waiting to fail. Worst of all, they have to put up with the bombastic French. If France fails, parts of Africa are defacto liberated, what is not to like?

          Dennis L.

          • Thierry38 says:

            Dennis, I agree that our philisophy has long gone, our economy is very bad and our reactors old.
            Green energy won’t save us either.
            French Islam? I don’t know what this is. So maybe we are doomed. Or maybe the reset will give us some opportunities, who knows?
            I still prefer to be french than english, the situation here seems less despaired here.

          • Dennis> Well, you are missing the historical context. Gargantuan amount of blood and treasure went into curbing the islamist foothold in Europe throughout past centuries, be it the Iberian or the wider CEE/Balkan/ClubMed vector.. The spoiled creti#ns.. of north-western Europe negated all that effort just in few decades..

        • misanthropr#7 says:

          Why is it bad to have separate cultures and have them within geographic areas? No one would dream of combining vanilla chocolate and strawberry milkshakes. They each have their own flavor. What makes them unique is that flavor. Those flavors are what make the world so special. If I want to visit Morocco and appreciate its uniqueness i will be respectful of its uniqueness. The last thing I want to do is change that. I also can respect that culture without wanting to make my own the same culture. If that culture is so fantastic that it holds great meaning to me i can move there not to change it but to live within a culture that speaks to me. It would seem to me that diversity is sustained by the milkshake cups not discarding them and pouring the milkshakes into a puddle. I say this love and appreciation for all cultures. The opposite is also true. The most intolerant action is to pour all the milkshakes into a puddle. That doesn’t mean that we cant have different cultures within a community but their is a point when essence is lost.

          • Kowalainen says:

            Yes, ethnic homogenity with some spice on top for that genetic and cultural diversity. I would also hate to see the different cultures and characters of the world end with uniformity.

            I love being in East Asia, work with Middle East people, East Europeans, West Europeans.

            And for FSCK sake, make sure that the borders are open for highly skilled artisanry.

      • JMS says:

        “One can only wonder what that ‘strategy’ is intended to achieve.”

        The strategy is at least 50 years old and it’s called Strategy of Tension. It worked pretty well in Italy when the strategists realized there was a risk that the PCI would win the legislative elections, and that it was important to demonize the extreme left movements that swarmed politics at the time. Gianfranco Sanguinetti explained it all in his book “On Terrori.sm and the State”.

        For the French state today, the useful idi.ots on duty are the “Isl.amic fundamentalists”, and its enemy is the French people, whose mania for attempting revolutions is well known. Without all the “isla.mic attacks” of the last 10 years it would be impossible to implement the repressive legislation neccessary to quell the coming “deluge”.

        • Jason says:

          While a beheading is extremely gruesome, is it any more tragic than a gunshot to the head? This is not unusual in America with mentally unstable extremist, and should be expected in other countries where freedom leads to extremists views in some cases. What the beheading does is put a very graphic visual in the populations’ minds, so much easier to associate the Muslim religion, and its’ followers, with medieval thoughts and acts of violence. The question should be, what Islamic ‘strategy’ is the encouragement of violence against a much larger native population supposed to achieve? What it will achieve is a much higher amount of suspicion and hatred, leading to possible deaths and expulsion of the very people that should be trying to offer services, gratitude, and integration into the host nation. As the world economies start to crumble and resources become scarce, I would hate to be surrounded by a desperate, angry French population looking for a scapegoat. Bad strategy!

          • JMS says:

            When some group behaves in a way that is flagrantly antagonistic to its own interests, we can only conclude one of two things: either that the members of that group are abysmally stupid, or that they are being manipulated as well-trained patsies.

          • doomphd says:

            they will be purged, one way or another.

          • Lidia17 says:

            This story of “mental instability” is getting old. The news here in the US reports “we still don’t know the motive”, even though the beheaders routinely and clearly state their motives. Islam (submission) is spreading because its believers actually believe in its practice. I don’t see why we choose to be mystified by that just because, if we are secularists, we can’t imagine ourselves behaving in that way.

            Very bizarre that you would think the French need a “scapegoat” for what is righteous anger. They’ve just had two major cathedrals burned down. How is this not war? One side declared war and the other hasn’t even begun to rub the sleep from its eyes. It’s hitting the snooze button.

            In talking about the ridiculous lockdowns, I was talking with a female veteran. I asked her rhetorically whether she didn’t think some things were worse than death and she declined to respond. What did Japanese kamikaze pilots “achieve”? Even in an objectively ‘lost’ cause, they achieve an intensity of commitment that is communicated to their own side if not the enemy’s. Islam knows they will wear down the West. It doesn’t matter if they are right or wrong in their beliefs.. they are just clearly more committed to them. If France were committed to a secular state, they wouldn’t sponsor these people or allow outside funding for mosques, etc. They wouldn’t allow “no-go” zones. If they are wishy-washy about self-preservation then they won’t be preserved.. don’t know how much simpler it could be.

        • JMS> Exactly. This pivoting maneuver also tries to sidestep the more genuine nationalist French political groups which were focused on the issue for decades. The French PM came from key (perennial) banking house, enough said..

          • JMS says:

            It’s very enlightening to me that we have here a bunch of very smart people dutily discussing a subject without deviating a millimeter from the discussion parameters set by the Communication Masters, aka, the Planners – namely, that there is supposedly an huge problem with Islamic terrorists in France, in addition to a deep and irreparable clash of cultures).

            I wonder how people can believe in anything they see on telly? Don’t they know tv and MSM are pure tools for ideological manipulation of masses? Apparently, even the most clever and informed people can be clueless about the way deep politics works. In fact, it’s in the realm of politics that cognitive dissonance manifests itself most clearly.

            • Lidia17 says:

              The way “deep politics” seems to be working is not only to divide people and heighten tension (it certainly does that) but to—at the same time—force them away from any safe or stable haven which might be contrary to global corporate interests, be that church, family, a stable workplace, local or national organizations… by breaking down all of those.. This seems to be the plan, once applied by communists to achieve power but now applied by “globalists” and the “Great Reset” crew in a kind of grand techno-utopian synthesis they openly promote:

              “The world must act jointly and swiftly to revamp all aspects of our societies and economies, from education to social contracts and working conditions. Every country, from the United States to China, must participate, and every industry…must be transformed.”

              Forcing us to submit to their “new ways of living and working” will be seen as a good thing. They acknowledge the Covid-19 pandemic as their tailor-made “window of opportunity”, not just to propose this Great Reset, but to enact it.

              Maybe you see some other way this is going?

            • Lidia17 says:

              I would be worried about the above to the extent I thought they could actually enact much of their depressing vision. I doubt the lights will be kept on long enough. Check out the list of sponsors who are on board with the global reset project. I assume they think they can all survive the end of cheap energy.. not sure how.

              https://www.weforum.org/great-reset
              https://www.weforum.org/partners

              You just lost your job, and the shelves at the supermarket look kind of thinly-stocked, but at least you can watch a Syrian chef use sign language in her cooking show, or take comfort in the fact that Tanzanians are recycling plastic bottles into Covid face masks. Anyone who needs a boost, just browse that site.

            • JMS says:

              Lidia, I fully agree with you. I would say the divide and rule strategy has as much application in the realm of imperial geopolitics as in the small affair of governing the masses.To destroy connections between people/communities, or obliterate personal/ historical identity, is certainly another way of divide to better rule.

              The plan seems to be to create a (no) society of depressed and frightened atoms, each one in his/her “safe” cocoon, an herd of obedient underpaid workers, watched 24/365 by state or corporate entities, etc., etc., following closely the chinese model for 21st century capitalism. But all this served of course with three things that human beings appreciate a lot: security, two meals a day, and electricity. For everything else, the planners will rely on police and army, while capturing for themselves all the wealth once at disposal of the middle classes.

              The plan sounds sort of good, it was obviously carefully thought. But like you, I believe the planners will have a hard time keeping the sheep calm just with a bowl of rice and netflix. Months of this and people will become fully demoralized (the drop and die kind) or fully enraged (the young).Then the enraged ones will try to break everything into pieces, and riot police come into action. Who knows how long that situation can go on? I wouldn’t rule out that with full control of media (totalitarian kind censorship), a generous use of violence and a 25 kg rice bag/month per sheep, the planners could extend the fake game of capitalism for.. what,two years, ten? Who knows?

              Thanks for the link to the WEF partners. You’re right, the whole corporate world is there. Perfectly united. And “we the people” so disunited. If this were a race i would say the other team has a very comfortable advantage. They will win, ie, they will die after us and with much more toys.

  29. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Even the DEAD can’t escape Collapse….came across this video series on an abandoned burial cemetery mausoleum 6 acres site that’s fallen is an advanced state of decay, disrepair and natural succession to pre BAU. No one wants to own up because of the expense it would require to make it “legal”. The State does not have the monies and the current parties of title just wish to walk away. Apparently, families of the departed are caught in limbo…
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YK3luW–wcU

    Perhaps a glimpse of the days ahead for us all….
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=giZN0ZuDERY&t=12s

    Been listening to talks of Alan Watts soothing, melodic Voice

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      I had Watts as a guest prof at college– one never knew what direction it was going to head.
      I enjoyed it.
      Something that would not happen today, not a chance.
      Ah, the 60’s——–

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        Duncan, Fortune did smile upon you it seems from the comments you posted of your past. Yes, the 1960s were a magical time!❤️🌈😜💖
        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=d2_wuNkRE40

        Of course. Wonder if it would have happened if not for the bumps in the road..
        Vietnam War, Cold War, Racial Inequality, environmental degradations, ect

    • Minority Of One says:

      The first video reminds me of Alan Weisman’s “World Without Us” (2007). Possibly the most interesting book I have read.

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        Yes, it does indeed! I remember that title and it did great widespread exposure at the time and this is a present example of that occurrence of a world without us! Thank you for the citation

    • Kowalainen says:

      Watts is right, worrying about death is as silly as worrying about being born.

      Experiencing the world as a computational hallucination inside your brain is however quite convincing. The ultimate smoke and mirrors in human existence.

      Imagine people busying themselves with mundane matters day in and out, wasting time and money on frivolous jank. Not even a single intellectual journey through the mystery of it all. Safely stuck in traffic jams between a work they hate and a house that is a rickety shed with some gaudy fake chrome and solar panels on top.

      But don’t get me wrong, life is precious. It should at all times be respected, and as is with life in general. Humans got a definitive expiery date programmed in every cell of the body.

      Let’s go do something interesting, like rocket ourselves to the moon and drill for natural resources. That will be awesome.

      😎

  30. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    When your back is against the wall…you reach for the GOLD
    (Bloomberg) — Central banks became gold sellers for the first time since 2010 as some producing nations exploited near-record prices to soften the blow from the coronavirus pandemic.
    Net sales totaled 12.1 tons of bullion in the third quarter, compared with purchases of 141.9 tons a year earlier, according to a report by the World Gold Council. Selling was driven by Uzbekistan and Turkey, while Russia’s central bank posted its first quarterly sale in 13 years, the WGC said.
    While inflows into exchange-traded funds have driven gold’s advance in 2020, buying by central banks has helped underpin bullion in recent years. Citigroup Inc. last month predicted that central bank demand would rebound in 2021, after slowing this year from near-record purchases in both 2018 and 2019.
    …….The fall off in jewelry was partially offset by 21% jump in demand from investors, according to the WGC, which draws data from both the International Monetary Fund and Metals Focus. Gold bars and coins made up most of the increase, as flows into exchange-traded funds slowed from preceding quarters.
    Total supply of gold declined 3% year-on-year as mine production remained depressed, even after Covid-19 restrictions were lifted in producers like South Africa. A quarterly uptick in recycling softened the decline, with consumers cashing in on high prices.
    That’s a BIG fear 😂 of gold bugs…the CBs unloading their hoard of the gold and crashing the price….

  31. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The Lockdown Meltdown Is Coming for Everything:

    “Even haven assets such as gold are being sold. Previous volatility spikes suggest the situation won’t turn around quickly.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-10-29/lockdown-meltdown-is-an-indiscriminate-markets-selloff

  32. Harry McGibbs says:

    “International tourist arrivals fell by 70% worldwide in the first eight months of 2020 compared to the previous year, due to the covid-19 pandemic, the World Tourism Organization (WTO) announced on Tuesday (27).

    “The northern summer months, usually the high tourist season in the northern hemisphere, were catastrophic: the arrival of tourists plummeted 81% in July at an annual rate and 79% in August, according to this Madrid-based UN agency.”

    https://alkhaleejtoday.co/international/5218230/World-tourism-fell-70–between-January-and-August-by-covid-19-says.html

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “…In March, when Africa started to enter lockdown, some of the smaller, African-owned tour operators went bust: their margins were just too thin. Modest, locally run lodges and guides suffered what one of them, the Tanzanian Robert Chekwaze, described to me as “the brute force” of the virus.

      “Chekwaze is a wildlife biologist and founder of Nale Moru, a family-owned safari business based in his country. “Nobody talks about catching the virus any more,” he says. “They talk about the Covid economy. We have been through Ebola, terrorism in Kenya, but no recent disaster comes close to the economic effects on the country right now.”

      https://www.ft.com/content/6a4f6c76-8a00-46ef-a645-23a5eda58825

  33. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The Group of 20 major economies should move quickly and decisively to reduce the debts of heavily indebted countries or risk a “lost decade” in terms of global development, World Bank chief economist Carmen Reinhart said on Wednesday.

    “”Proposals need to be bold in terms of delivering debt reduction for the debtors, because if not … the risks of a lost decade are very big.””

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-g20-debt-idUKKBN27D2KC

  34. Harry McGibbs says:

    “IEA now sees global energy industry investment on the upstream (exploration and production) side falling by 35% this year, a slightly steeper drop than their prior analysis in May.

    “”This somewhat weaker outlook stems from cuts of around 45% by shale companies in the United States, which have experienced a surge of bankruptcies, layoffs and shut-ins, as well as a 50% jump in financing costs,” IEA notes.”

    https://www.axios.com/global-investment-slump-energy-3b6de33b-3165-4a38-bb7d-c36ba74befaa.html

  35. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Analysts have become significantly more pessimistic about the UK economy, saying the surge in coronavirus cases and new restrictions will weigh on the recovery as the year runs into 2021.”

    https://www.cityam.com/uk-economy-experts-cut-forecasts-as-coronavirus-cases-surge/

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Coronavirus has had a “devastating” impact on the UK’s pubs and will exacerbate the decline in the number of independent breweries – for the first time in nearly two decades – an influential consumer guide has warned.

      “Thousands of pubs and breweries that survived the first lockdown are now fighting to stay afloat amid a slump in business following ongoing restrictions and curfews that could “make or break” the industry…”

      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/29/covid-has-devastated-uk-pub-industry-says-camra

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “Coach companies have again warned they face collapse if they do not receive urgent help from the government following a slump in business amid the coronavirus outbreak.

        “Many firms are paying thousands of pounds in finance deals for vehicles that are not bringing money in. One worried boss said his fleet could be repossessed in the coming weeks.”

        https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-54724747

        • The whole economy is revealed as one big leveraged phantom performance mirage, debt over debt securing another level of debt.. This on the other end obviously means there is significant overcapacity, so when the factories (e.g. coach buses here) cut production ~20-40% they are no longer for this world as well as their bank, and insurer of that said bank, etc..

          Again, that means even in the depression the industrial products won’t get any cheaper, perhaps with the exception for very limited time window (and insiders who track volume spikes), then the production is cut off, bankruptcies, few of the surviving competitors not rushing to increase production anyway.. Quality also suffers because of wobbly suppliers and freaked out employees..

          • Kowalainen says:

            Wait until Amazon pops up in your back yard and the online grocery stores boots up properly.

            Those coaches will be repurposed to deliver cheap crap and groceries.

            Autos, though, in Europe especially, now that’s a grim prospect.

            I’m waiting for massive layoffs in Stuttgart. Bicycles and ebikes does not require that massive of a work force.

            Cash for clunkers coming to your EU country.

            Mutti is all smiles.

        • What are companies going to do with the repossessed coach buses? Are there buyers?

          • Repo of buses or any such gear-vehicles has been dealt with scrapping (despite useful lifespan in it) or swiftly moved away to another continent. It’s intentional game of supporting price levels (on domestic/target market) which worked in previous recessions and depressions..

            • Lidia17 says:

              worldof… yep, they used to do that in Italy/Europe on a regular basis by forcing people to scrap cars that didn’t meet whatever new emissions standard rather than allowing them to just age out. There was clearly more pollution in the new car than in the tailpipe emissions saved. Obama did some kind of “cash for clunkers” scheme,. too, which was supposed to create current employment/demand by borrowing it from the future.

          • Lidia17 says:

            Tiny houses on wheels!

            • Kowalainen says:

              Pop up stores.

              Local farmers stuffing the coaches full of refrigerators and hauling their groceries to where people live.

              Do your purchases online and later on, deliveries.

    • No kidding!

  36. Tim Groves says:

    Peter Hitchens from his blog post of October 24:

    Only anger will end this misery

    Johnson, the man who ruined Britain, continues to stamp across the landscape like a mad giant, squashing small businesses, obliterating jobs and then flinging funny money at the victims as if that could bring back what they have lost for ever.

    By doing so he achieves nothing. The crisis which he claims to be dealing with exists only in twisted statistics and shameless propaganda.

    No suspicion that he might be mistaken appears to have crossed his mind. Those of us who have tried using facts and reason to change his mind are more or less in despair. The funny money is visibly running out.

    Increasingly, I fear that anger is the only force that will bring this misery to an end. I hope not, for that will bring new miseries. Can nobody reach him, while there is still time?

    Me again:
    Never put down to malice what can be explained perfectly well by stupidity, to paraphrase an old adage. But what governments such as Boris’s are doing is far too stupid to be accounted for by stupidity. These people are working for a “common purpose” and “stupidity” is merely an excuse for not wanting to think about what that purpose might be.

    • Minority Of One says:

      For those that don’t live in the UK, Peter Hitchens is a columnist for the Mail on Sunday. He is the only person in the UK MSM, that I am aware of, that has been visibly anti-lockdown from the get-go, suggesting that the UK follow the Swedish way of tackling CV19. He is more or less a one-man force who has been willing to stick his head above the parapet.

      But much of the UK general population ignore anything he writes, or assume he is writing rubbish/propaganda, because he writes for what is considered to be a right-wing newspaper and he usually has what are considered right-wing views, which of course is why he is a columnist for the Mail. A pity, for on this topic he has been spot on.

      • I think that to some extent this dynamic exists everywhere. People assume that if the medical community recommends lockdowns, this is the way to go. Doctors don’t understand the economy, or how little lockdowns do.

        • Lidia17 says:

          Gail, I don’t think it really has been “the medical community” to recommend the lockdowns. I don’t think they were polled on it and, if polled, I think they would demur, being generally smart enough not to want to take responsibility for the economic outcomes. Collectively, they would probably come up with a Swedish response (BAU but social-distance, handwash) or something similar.

          Since my dad was an MD, people are amazed when I say I got “some red-spot disease” when I was a kid, but didn’t know whether it was measles, chicken pox, rubella..? Did it matter? Dad looked at it, said “ok, stay at home and drink ginger ale”. He did not even like to give us aspirin. His main remedy was “put a cold cloth on it.” People think that if they can get data on something that they can change the outcome, and that’s not always the case.

          • Xabier says:

            Our civilisation is declining in a flood of data and modelling – but for all that we remain almost as helpless as the Romans, etc. Knowledge is not always power.

  37. Sven Røgeberg says:

    «The Spanish island aiming to be 100% renewable

    El Hierro has just managed to meet power demand for 18 straight days entirely with green energy as Brussels debates the roadmap to meet Paris climate agreement goals»
    https://english.elpais.com/elpais/2018/03/28/inenglish/1522239815_193089.html

    • The article says that for 18 days in February, the island managed to generate its own power. The article was published in March 2018, so I presume this was February 2018. This is electricity alone, not all energy. I know that Euan Mearns and his assistant (who has since died) used to write about how expensive this electricity is. It needs to use backup diesel for power quite a bit of the time.

      This island is mostly an example of how poorly this idea works, as far as I know.

      • Sven Røgeberg says:

        Right, Gail, i wonder whether perhaps Means and Roger Andrews wrote about Hawai too?

        • Hawaii is nowhere near 100% renewable. Even the Big island is nowhere 100% renewable. The price of electricity is very high in Hawaii too. I would have to look to see what they wrote about Hawaii. I know that the Big Island of Hawaii cut off solar additions to the grid (temporarily?) because the grid couldn’t handle more.

  38. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

    GDPnow is plus 37.0%

    the official number out tomorrow.

    just in time for the November election.

    what will stock markets do?

  39. Lidia17 says:

    First it was 2021; now it is 2022:
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/vaccine-is-imminent-but-virus-fight-has-long-way-to-go-fauci-20201028-p569h2.html

    I think Fauci, aside from his monetary interests to the tune of millions, has some kind of Munchausen’s-by-Proxy thing going on. He wants to be in the spotlight and to manipulate people, even to bad ends (see his checkered AIDS history).

    I think he gets off on jerking people around… masks/no masks, Tinder good, Thanksgiving bad.. bla bla bla.. mask controversy now “pains” him..

    “… mixed signals that are coming out from the government, that is not being very helpful.”
    THEY WERE HIS MIXED SIGNALS.

    Oy veh. Can someone please drag this guy off-stage with an old-time hook like at the Apollo Theatre?

  40. rnavaccine says:

  41. Oh dear says:

    Re: C 19 in UK

    This is pretty miserable stuff, and I can understand that some in UK are getting ‘frustrated’, what with the darkness of winter having officially ‘set in’ with the clocks gone back on Sunday morning.

    C 19 related fatalities are back up, at over 300 per day, and the ‘news’ is that the ‘second peak’ is going on for months. Meanwhile the economy – and perhaps patience – is ‘nose diving’.

    Still, news is that a vaccine will soon be ‘rolled out’ here. My own inclination is to let other people take it first, and to give it some months to see what happens, and maybe by then there will be no need for me to take it. I do not really like the idea of them TBH.

    So, sunnier days hopefully lie ahead. : )

    > Daily Covid-19 infections hit 24,701 in first DROP for a month but deaths rise to 310 – up from 191 last Wednesday – as Tory MPs and businesses urge Boris Johnson to ‘face down’ Sir Patrick Vallance and reject calls for second lockdown

    Department of Health statistics show 26,688 positive coronavirus tests were added to the Government’s count last Wednesday. It means today is the first time the daily number of cases has fallen on the amount recorded the week before since September 28, when the tally was affected by a counting blunder. But deaths are continuing to rise. Another 310 coronavirus victims were recorded today, up from the 191 posted this time last week. It can take infected patients several weeks to become severely-ill, meaning the death toll lags behind any spike in cases. It comes as Boris Johnson has been warned by his top scientific advisers that the UK is facing a second wave of coronavirus even deadlier than the first as they urge the Prime Minister to impose tougher lockdown rules. The Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has presented the PM with projections which suggest the peak of the second wave will be lower than it was in the first wave. However, the peak is expected to last for longer, with high numbers of daily deaths likely to continue for months, resulting in a ‘lampshade’ second wave.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8889481/Daily-Covid-19-infections-hit-24-701-DROP-fortnight.html

    • Oh dear says:

      I have been feeling a bit ‘Robert Dowland’ myself.

      ‘Semper Dowland, semper dolens.’

  42. Ed says:

    The Pell Plan

    People say New Zealand has done the best with CV19. I completely disagree. I would say they have done he worst. They have almost no immunity by individuals having had the disease. They are left isolated as a nation nobody in until a vaccine is created, tested, and distributed.

    I propose an alternative plan.

    1) every citizen under age 40 is exposed to CV19 via a nasal spray of CV19 particles. There will be very little harm in the age group. Pretest for vitamin D level hold off on people with low levels until they are supplemented up to safe levels then expose.
    2) encourage people ages 41 to 71 to do the same. Appeal to their love of country.
    3) require all none exposed to wear fully enclosing head gear feed by HEPA filtered air (powered by battery backpack) and gloves.
    4) let her rip

    • We don’t know that having COVID-19 will provide lasting protection against the illness. In fact, we already have several counter-examples showing that it doesn’t. Immunity may last only a fairly short time, weeks or months. In fact, this may be an obstacle to vaccines working very well.

      • Lidia17 says:

        And so?

        How long can all of humanity be kept in societal bunkers on the .01% off-chance one of us might become ill and perish?

      • Ed says:

        I agree we do not now if there is lasting immunity. We need experiments to find out. I am willing to be exposed in such an experiment.

  43. Jason says:

    This is to help Oh Dear understand the pitfalls of I.Q. measurement.
    https://t.co/0lGSbmmoee?amp=1
    Your are a smart guy, your I.Q. should be large enough to understand it.
    No hate, just some playful ribbing. Let’s not take ourselves too seriously.

    • Oh dear says:

      Thanks, but one would have to review all of the literature. Even then there is no consensus.

      I actually have not stated any position on the ratio of genetic and social factors in IQ outcomes, so you may be making assumptions.

      If others want to debate that stuff right now, then that is up to them, but I am not really in the mood for it.

      Thanks, anyway.

      • I am amazed at how different the abilities of different people are, in directions that are not measured by IQ tests. Remembrance of names and events varies greatly, for example. I have a niece who, if given a date, can remember practically everything that happened on that date–what the weather was, what she was wearing, you name it. I know a woman who has a more or less perfect memory for names of people, even ones she met long ago, fairly briefly, and the names of children told to her once by parents.

        Concentration does not necessarily go with unusual ability to remember. A couple of people I know with outstanding memories have problems with concentration.

        Some people like to do things very precisely, in a very well ordered manner. Others have a real problem with organization.

        Some people can detect tiny whiffs of smells or tastes much better than others. Some people hear better than others. Some people see better than others. Some people are color blind, in different ways.

        I am sure that in the right circumstance, a particular unusual ability will come in handy. That is why “selection of the best adapted” works as well as it does.

        • Oh dear says:

          That is an interesting perspective, Gail. Thanks. : )

        • Thierry38 says:

          Gail, your niece makes me think about a character in a short story written by Borges. It is called “Funes el memorioso”.
          In Funes case, that skill is encumbrent because Funes cannot think globally or conceptualize. He can see only details. A dog is not a dog, it is the yellow dog that was in the kitchen at 5pm for example.

    • Oh dear says:

      I certainly do not have a religious or ‘moral’ position on IQ, as if one is a ‘good’ person only if one has a certain opinion on the matter.

      That sort of approach to science belongs in the Middle Ages along with hocus pocus and religious bigotry.

    • Lidia17 says:

      Jason, “There are some ideas so absurd that only an intellectual could believe them.”― George Orwell

      High-IQ world-citizens like Taleb are able to succeed wherever they go. They are poster children starkly in contrast to the “blank-slate” theory they pathetically promote. The fact that one of Taleb’s main listed arguments is “morality” gives away the game. The best science is bereft of morality and will follow outcomes and indications no matter where they lead or what they imply.

      It’s beyond obvious that different human cohorts (whether one calls them races, sub-species, clades, or whatever) have different innate characteristics, just as men and women have different characteristics, and different dog breeds have differing talents and temperaments from birth, primarily based on human intervention in their coupling. Certain human cohorts have the same current divergent level of violent criminal (or “criminal”*) behavior whether in their native countries or transplanted abroad with or without a slavery background. Magic Dirt is a lie. Every organism cultivates the environment around itself to favor its own way of being. Japanese knotweed changes the soil structure around where it grows. Humans are not different. Import the uncivilized and you will get uncivilization.

      *Look up Jacob Zuma, rape.
      * https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ive-worked-refugees-decades-europes-afghan-crime-wave-mind-21506

      It’s only in our modern era that a cynically-imposed religion of egalitarianism has arisen (for political and tribal motives of its own, imo, as if it could somehow be otherwise!), partially filling a vacuum left by the scientific challenges posed to traditional religions. In an age of gene-splicing, DNA-based medical therapies, and ancestry-tracing, we are supposed to believe that evolution operates upon all living organisms EXCEPT FOR HUMAN BEINGS. That—to me—is in no way different from my Rapture-Ready sister’s Christian fundamentalism averring humans are Absolutely Not Animals.

      There’s a great deal of hubris in casting aside 99.9% of the observations if not the judgments of history, including those of many serious thinkers on the topic who were trying to be fair-minded and scientifically observational. For people interested in generally-non-vituperative rational discussion of issues surrounding HBD (Human BioDiversity) I would recommend the Unz Review as a place to dip one’s toe.

      Decades of modern American racial experimentation has not (to any extent that I can see) resulted at all in any particular general uplift or improvement in blacks’ basic capacities to function in modern civilization in the aggregate sense. They may or may not have collective strengths which will carry them along once industrial civilization has gone by the wayside. That is how evolution works: it is not a question of “progress”, but one of fitness for purpose. If the purpose is painting an inspiring Sistine Chapel, well… Basquiat won’t get you there. If the purpose is taking a machete to one’s neighbor with a minimum of compunction, you might have a more satisfactory result with a Rwandan leading your group. Swedes may be orchids, and Afghans knotweed. We have reached the point where we can’t afford energetically to keep orchids alive artificially and indefinitely.

      “We need to” accept the ongoing process playing out before us and decide where our own strengths and social allegiances will confer upon us the greatest chance of individual survival going forward. If whites think blacks/browns will be in any way forbearing towards us, all current data suggests that will not be so. Blacks should also not count on any solidarity whatsover from browns. If whites were to vanish from the US scene, Asians and Hispanics would deal with blacks in a less-forgiving fashion than whites, I believe.

      ===
      Like the US, the UK and Europe are also struggling to integrate populations who are “just not that into” the rule of law, or feminism, or gay rights, or secularism. etc. etc. Seeing the US’s difficulties, Europe could have avoided this obvious pandemonium, but no. Despite being its beneficiaries, migrants themselves are not at all interested in egalitarianism beyond the extent (we can hardly blame them) that they can use egalitarians’ weakness to promote their own biological interests. In this, I have an image from my childhood of bully kids who’d grab your wrist and punch you in the face, saying over and over, “why are you hitting yourself? why are you hitting yourself?”. France, why are you hitting yourself? England, why are you hitting yourself? Sweden, why are you hitting yourself?

      I leave the US out of this since I recognize it as having been little more than an Economic Zone for the entirety of its political existence. I feel much more compassion for the Indigenous of Europe who will never be recognized by modern institutions as requiring protection along the lines of Australian Aboriginals or Tibetans or Eritreans or East Timorese… or Israelis.

      This problem for Westerners, anyway, will never end until they eradicate from their societies those with contrary indoles (as most of the rest of the world does…. they won’t). The fact that this needs to be pointed out to anyone is an indication itself of how deep the corrosion and delusion has become. Entities and groups which are violent and which stick together can and do easily overcome oceanic amounts of pious-yet-weak-kneed rectitude. Those who renounce any solidarity of a lighter hue as “racist” and who embrace atomization will clearly be overcome, and they deserve that end. Civilization is something which is perhaps hard-won, but also easily lost. GWBush apocryphally called the US Constitution just “a god-damned piece of paper.”

      A good deal of discussion on this site has circled around the pitfalls of—essentially—too much intelligence (intelligence engendering technology as a matter of course and thus ruining the environment and getting out of control). Like that theorem (Fermi’s paradox?) about extra-terrestrial species having killed themselves off before being able to reach our planet, we could postulate intelligence as an ultimately recessive trait, and that (should humans survive) will be back to a level of Idiocracy before too long. The decline in global IQ has already been registered.

      • Artleads says:

        “If whites were to vanish from the US scene, Asians and Hispanics would deal with blacks in a less-forgiving fashion than whites, I believe.”

        You bet!

        • Artleads says:

          Sticking together does not mean interbreeding; blacks and whites can help each other by NOT being the same. Good cop, bad cop (interchangeably).

          But if blacks and whites don’t stick together (like glue) they BOTH (in this new multi-polar world) are going DOWN!.

      • Ed says:

        We need Indian rules like Kamala they know how to deal with the lower classes. They have done it for thousands of years.

        • Artleads says:

          Kerala? (sp) I’m not actually seeing blacks as a lower caste in a white system, but having a complementary system of their own. It seems to me that the racial strife we see now is due to there not being the latter. There needs to be fairer, more equitable separation. Of course, class and caste are likely to be around for some time, but it might not always work the way it does now.

        • The Hindus mostly left the Muslims alone, and the latter formed their own castes

  44. Oh dear says:

    Re: Tories post-Brexit immigration policies are now published

    The Tories have published their new immigration policies, with minimal media attention. Any cap on numbers has been scrapped. The salary threshold has also basically been scrapped.

    Brexit allows the TP to ‘take back control’ of its migration policy. However it was never realistic, as some Brexit supporters imagined, that TP (let alone LP) would use the new powers to reduce immigration.

    The British state is a capitalist state and it exists to represent the interests of organised capital. TP agreed with CBI earlier this year to drop any caps and to reduce the lower salary threshold, and the policy is now official.

    CBI wants as many incoming workers as the capitalist economy can absorb, and it has entirely got what it wants.

    The UK is not a predominantly high skill economy (none are) and the expansion of the economy depends also on the expansion of the supply of low and medium skill workers. Most new jobs in UK, and in other ‘mature’ capitalist economies, are not high skill.

    The capitalist economy must always grow GDP in order to maintain profitability and to service the structural debt. The capitalist state relies, especially post-2008, on more workers to grow GDP as productivity growth is collapsed.

    In the post-imperialist period, that means more domestic workers, as the fall of the British Empire cut off the supply of colonial labour forces to British capital. Post-Brexit, more workers will come from outside of Europe rather than from EU and indeed that is already the trend.

    The inward migration rate to UK is currently over 700,000 per annum (350,000 net) and TP has indicated that it intends to maintain that level for decades to come.

    It is all entirely ‘logical’ thus far.

    One problem is that of ‘democracy’.

    It is becoming ever starker that bourgeois ‘democracy’ is a fake democracy. TP broke three successive GE manifesto pledges to reduce migration to the tens of thousands, and it is now on its second GE pledge to ‘reduce it overall’, which cannot be taken seriously. CBI gets what it wants.

    TP and LP get together at GEs to pretend that TP is anti-migration and that LP is especially ‘for’ it – to split the votes between them. In reality, they are both capitalist state parties who maintain the capitalist economy.

    In a sense, it is ‘logical’ too that bourgeois ‘democracy’ is a ‘fake’ democracy. It follows from the bourgeois ‘class basis’ of the capitalist state. It is what one would expect, however ‘cognitively dissonant’ it may be with how bourgeois democracies present themselves.

    Also, they seem to have their fingers crossed that global capitalism will continue much longer. Gail has raised doubts about that.

    97% of the over-80s are still ethnic British (ONS). With 34% of school kids now of another background, and a collapsed domestic fertility rate of 1.57 per woman, it is clear that Britain is headed to a majority ethnic population, which is ‘logical’ to the capitalist economy in the post-imperialist period.

    Net UK migration targets & £35,800 salary threshold scrapped

    The UK government has abandoned its net migration targets and ditched the £35,800 minimum salary threshold for indefinite leave to remain (ILR), according to a report published by The Telegraph. New rules remove any remaining trace of Theresa May’s attempts to reduce net UK immigration numbers to the tens of thousands.

    Under the UK’s new, points-based immigration system – set to launch on 1 January 2021 – skilled migrants will no longer need to earn a minimum of £35,800 to be able to settle in Britain. Instead, the threshold will be lowered to £25,600. According to The Telegraph report, the new rule was ‘quietly slipped in’ and will take effect on 1 December 2020.

    The new rules will also allow so-called unskilled migrants, earning a minimum salary of £20,480 but accumulating enough points to allow for UK entry to fill job roles where there is a shortage of workers, to settle in the UK after six years and apply for British citizenship.

    The rule change was discovered by the Migration Observatory based at Oxford University, following a review of a 507-page rule book on the new UK visa and immigration system. The Migration Observatory described the change as ‘the final nail in the coffin of the net migration target.’

    Deputy director of the Migration Observatory, Rob McNeil, said: “They are acknowledging that the bluntest of all the instruments the government used to get to that target of tens of thousands has been kicked into touch.”

    Claims weaken immigration control

    The chairman of anti-immigration group Migration Watch, Alp Mehmet, slammed the rule change as ‘quite outrageous.’ He said: “It will weaken immigration control further and risks helping drive settlement beyond even the record highs of a decade ago. It will also reduce the incentive for employers to train British workers.”

    “To make matters worse, these major changes are being sneaked in through the back door with scant detail and a lack of advance warning.” Mehmet said….

    https://workpermit.com/news/net-uk-migration-targets-ps35800-salary-threshold-scrapped-20201026

    • Erdles says:

      “97% of the over-80s are still ethnic British (ONS). With 34% of school kids now of another background”.

      Most of those from ‘another background’ are actually Eastern European Christian white.

  45. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Financial crisis fashion: the boom in Lehman Brothers merch: Shirts, hats and ‘banker bags’ from now-defunct companies are fetching significant sums…

    “Today, sporting a Lehman duffel bag says you’ve got a handle on your pre-2008 Wall Street history and an evolved sense of irony. It also communicates status to those in the know, showing that you have something rare and have probably parted with a few hundred for it.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/fe4b7b3d-ee7e-4185-992d-a3b6d2151c70

  46. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Oil fell sharply with broader markets as renewed restrictions on movement in Europe clouded the outlook for consumption once again.”

    https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/10/28/oil-prices-fall-sharply-on-renewed-coronavirus-restrictions

  47. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Global stocks and the euro tumbled on Wednesday as coronavirus infections rose in Europe and the United States, igniting fears of strict lockdowns that would damage already fragile economic recoveries.”

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/global-markets-idUKL4N2HJ2XJ

  48. Thierry38 says:

    Bad news again. I have always thought that the fatality rate was not relevant, there are much more important issues with SARS-Cov-2.The following link persuades me I was right:
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.14.20212555v1.full
    according to the article “In a young, low-risk population with ongoing symptoms, almost 70% of individuals have impairment in one or more organs four months after initial symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection. There are implications not only for burden of long COVID but also public health approaches which have assumed low risk in young people with no comorbidities.”

    • Rodster says:

      More fear mongering and F.U.D. (Fear, uncertainty, doubt) to get the Sheeple to crave forced injections. The CDC’s and the WHO have been downgrading their numbers. But here in the US there have been 218,000 deaths out of 331 million people. Run the numbers and CV19 looks more like the Flu.

      • VFatalis says:

        The economy will probably collapse before a vaccine is ready

        Hence no reason to fear the virus, and no reason to fear the vaccine… Life’s good 😉

        • One way of describing the situation.

        • Thierry38 says:

          I fear the virus, for the reasons I have shown above. I can survive the collapse in a good shape, I don’t bet the same with the virus. And the vaccine is pure bullshit.

            • Thierry38 says:

              Fear is one of the best evolutive advantages for many species, including humans.
              When faced with a danger, fear makes you cautious, and move away from danger. This is how you survive.
              I guess the fear Franck Herbert talks about is not exactly the same idea, maybe rather anguish or trouble.
              We miss words to express so many different notions.

            • Thierry38 says:

              Those who have no fear shall get the virus and tell me their story.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Those who let fear get the better of them often turn into nervous wrecks. It could be fear of the extremely dangerous or it could be little everyday things that 95 percent of the population take in their stride. Doctor’s offices and mental homes are full of them.

              It’s all about maintaining a good balance between the sympathetic and the parasympathetic thingy. Too much fear will tend to upset it and turn people into masses of quivering jelly.

              Most people are at least weary of fierce wild animals such as lions, tigers or bears, that have the ability to savage a person to death. Others panic at the sight of a mouse, a spider, a centipede or a cockroach in the house. My contention is that COVID-19, if it exists at all, is in terms of lethality more comparable to a mouse than to a tiger.

              By contrast, an economic collapse, while it may not frighten you, has the potential do do as much damage to human life and as a large tsunami. The prospect scares the willies of me.

              https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/91IM87eeuCL._AC_CLa%7C2140%2C2000%7C81JXr94tSHL.png%7C0%2C0%2C2140%2C2000%2B0.0%2C0.0%2C2140.0%2C2000.0_UX342_.png

            • People don’t understand how close we might be to collapse. Without electricity (except that from batteries) today, I am reminded how quickly things could “go south.”

            • Thierry38 says:

              Tim, the economical collapse does not scare me because we are all in together and there will be many losers, but, I hope, a few winners. Where I live I guess I have better chances to go through the collapse a better way than many other people – those who live in town or do not have supply of food or water very closed to their home.
              If necessary I can go hunting in the woods (no kidding!), or buy milk, eggs, vegetables to my local farmers. The river is very closed and the water is clean (coming from the mountain). I also have a garden which is really important in the times coming.

        • Rodster says:

          We’ve been talking about collapse for too long and it still hasn’t happened. Fast Eddy was disappointed that Covid 19 changed nothing and he left again. We had a poster from Italy who thought that this was a sign of the Great Tribulation. And yet no great tribulation has taken place.

          I prefer to deal in the here and now. So that’s why I continue to address the sham and fraud Covid 19 has been turned into. Because something tells me we will be dealing with “forced injections” long before we see a collapse. The concern is that those forced injections will not be effective or safe and if you don’t comply the governments around the world will make life so difficult for you by cutting off your freedom of movement.

          Thankfully we are beginning to see more civil unrest as the new lockdowns are making citizens from around the world pushback against the authorities.

          • Lidia17 says:

            Looking at abandoned London, I wouldn’t say that “Covid-19 changed nothing”… Maybe people just have short attention spans (certainly true of FE, I’d say).

            What’s most disturbing and indicative of your “forced injection” concerns is the fact that the less deadly the disease supposedly is, even by the gov.s’ own flawed metrics, the greater the insistence on lockdowns and other draconian measures, with no relief in sight.

            • Rodster says:

              No, Fast Eddy was Wishing upon a Star for a full blown collapse so we can all live out the movie “The Road”. He thought Covid 19 would push everything over the edge and bring on “The Collapse”. It didn’t happen in fact the Stock Market went back up, the economy is still functioning, people are still buying smartphones and online sales are up. In my area stores are open including restaurants.

              Things have changed NO doubt in London as they have in New York and Miami but the lights are still on, people are buying cars and the hundreds of nuclear power plants are still operating. Still no collapse.

            • JMS says:

              Or perhaps Fast Eddy concluded that the planners had opted for an attempted controlled demolition of the present economic system, then he inferred that a techno-fascist regime would follow, and thought it best to disappear from the radar. Just a guess.

            • Lidia17 says:

              Rodster, again I think there may be miscomprehension regarding the time scale. The Titanic was struck fatally in a relative instant, but took a number of hours to sink.

            • Minority Of One says:

              >>No, Fast Eddy was Wishing upon a Star for a full blown collapse so we can all live out the movie “The Road”.

              Yes he was, he told us often enough. That was because he saw the human race as trashing the planet to such an extent there is a chance we could end life on Earth. And the sooner we are gone, the better for the rest of life on Earth.

              >>He thought Covid 19 would push everything over the edge and bring on “The Collapse”

              The collapse has only just started. In the USA and UK, millions of small and medium sized companies, and some big companies (airlines, cruise companies, hotel chains) have gone / are going out of business. The principal reason is lockdowns. And what are our political leaders more or less universally giving us more of – lockdowns.

              2021 is going to be a very rough year.

            • I am afraid you are right.

        • Minority Of One says:

          It is certainly looking that way.

      • Thierry38 says:

        Rodster, you don’t seem to understand what I am saying.
        Nonetheless I don’t think a vaccine would ever work and even then I would do all I can to avoid the injection.

        • Slow Paul says:

          I don’t believe we will have forced injections, the people will not accept that, they are rioting already from lack of jobs etc.

          OTOH we might see vaccination as a prerequisite to be able to apply for certain jobs, to be able to get on an airplane and so on. Hopefully the ramifications of all these lockdowns will become apparent soon enough that we will have to say OK, we must start living again and not hide from an undefeatable virus.

          • Rodster says:

            “OTOH we might see vaccination as a prerequisite to be able to apply for certain jobs, to be able to get on an airplane and so on.”

            THAT’S THE DEFINITION OF “FORCED INJECTIONS” !!!

            If you don’t accept the BS injections, you can’t get a drivers license, can’t leave your house, can’t get on a plane, can’t visit your doctor or dentist, can’t get a job etc. As i’ve mentioned in a previous comment, if you don’t accept the injections by the Puppet Masters they will make your life miserable.

            • Bei Dawei says:

              By that principle, I was forced into marriage.

            • Tim Groves says:

              After what we’ve seen happening in Western Europe and the Anglosphere, I wouldn’t put anything past these well-intentioned health totalitarians. I’m afraid it’s all over for the West. Democracy is a total sham, degraded and disparaged by the very people we voted into office.

              At this point in time, we can no longer laugh off Godfree Robert’s claims about China being a nicer camp in which to be concentrated in!

              I would say more about that, but I worry that it might negatively impact my social credit score.

              George Orwell got quite a lot right in Nineteen Eighty-Four. I believe he was basically writing a satire caricaturing life in the UK in the late 1940s, But our current Puppet Masters have taken it as a textbook and turned Orwell’s tragic dystopia into farce.

              At times like this, I just drift away. To my tropical fantasy. Living on coconuts growing on the trees. Sometimes I wish I could just drift away. Yes, the Kings were very prescient as well as very satirical too—bless ’em.

              https://youtu.be/ZHg3gU71mXU

    • Continuing fatigue doesn’t sound good. The likely possibility that this is a lab-made virus, funded in part by Fauci, needs to be further investigated.

      • Thierry38 says:

        I totally agree; The hypothesis of a lab-made virus that was called “conspiracy theory” at the beginning now seems accepted by most scientists including the french CNRS
        https://lejournal.cnrs.fr/articles/la-question-de-lorigine-du-sars-cov-2-se-pose-serieusement
        In this interview Etienne Decroly explains how easy it is to create a virus from genetic data. Any of his student is able to do this and they don’t even think about consequences doing it in theorical exercises.
        Really worth reading article.

        • avocado says:

          He says that there is a wide gap in the evolutive chain between known wild bat coronaviruses and SARS-COV-2 (genetic, geographical and ecological). And that many leaks occured in the last years

      • Tim Groves says:

        People have been suffering from chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) for decades. According to the Mayo Clinic,

        CFS is a complicated disorder characterized by extreme fatigue that lasts for at least six months and that can’t be fully explained by an underlying medical condition. The fatigue worsens with physical or mental activity, but doesn’t improve with rest.

        Other characteristic symptoms include:

        Sleep that isn’t refreshing
        Difficulties with memory, focus and concentration
        Dizziness that worsens with moving from lying down or sitting to standing
        This condition is also known as myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME). Sometimes it’s abbreviated as ME/CFS. The most recent term proposed is systemic exertional intolerance disease (SEID).

        The cause of chronic fatigue syndrome is unknown, although there are many theories — ranging from viral infections to psychological stress. Some experts believe chronic fatigue syndrome might be triggered by a combination of factors.

        There’s no single test to confirm a diagnosis of chronic fatigue syndrome. You may need a variety of medical tests to rule out other health problems that have similar symptoms. Treatment for chronic fatigue syndrome focuses on improving symptoms.

      • Artleads says:

        Is there a way to charge your phone battery from your car engine?

        • Probably. Or I could turn the engine on and use the power from the gasoline powered engine to charge it. So there are ways to fix the problem.

          I hope the problem is fixed in hours rather than days.