Strangely enough, the limit we seem to be reaching with respect to fossil fuel extraction comes from low prices. At low prices, the extraction of oil, coal, and natural gas becomes unprofitable. Producers go bankrupt, or they voluntarily cut back production in an attempt to force prices higher. As the result of these forces, production tends to fall. This limit comes long before the limit that many people imagine: the amount of fossil fuels in the ground that seems to be available with current extraction techniques.
The last time there was a similar problem was back in 1913, when coal was the predominant fossil fuel used and the United Kingdom was the largest coal producer in the world. The cost of production was rising due to depletion, but coal prices would not rise sufficiently to cover the higher cost of production. As a result, the United Kingdom’s coal production reached its highest level in 1913, the year before World War I started, and began to fall in 1914.
Between 1913 and 1945, the world economy was very troubled. There were two world wars, the Spanish Flu pandemic and the Great Depression. My concern is that we are again headed into another very troubled period that could last for many years.
The way the energy problems of the period between 1913 and 1945 were resolved was through the rapid ramp-up of oil production. Oil was, as that time, inexpensive to produce and could be sold for a very large multiple of the cost of production. If population is to remain at the current level or possibly grow, we need a similar “energy savior.” Unfortunately, none of the alternatives we are looking at now yield a high enough return relative to the required investment.
I recently gave a talk to an engineering group interested in energy research talking about these issues. In this post, I will discuss the slides of this presentation. A PDF of the presentation can be found at this link.
The Low Oil Price Problem
Oil prices seem to bounce around wildly. One major issue is that there is a two-way tug of war between the prices that citizens can afford and the prices that oil companies require. We can look back now and say that the mid-2008 price of over $150 per barrel was too high for consumers. But strangely enough, oil producers began complaining about oil prices being too low to cover their rising cost levels, starting in 2012. Prices, at a 2019 cost level, were at about $120 per barrel at that time. I wrote about this issue in the post, Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending. Oil prices now are in the $40 range, so are way, way below both $120 per barrel and $150 per barrel.
Interest rates and the availability of debt also play a role in oil prices. If interest rates are low and debt is readily available, it is easy to buy a new home or new car, and oil prices tend to rise because of the higher demand. When prices are too low for producers, central banks have been able to lower interest rates through a program called “quantitative easing.” This program seems to have helped oil prices to rise again, over a three-year period, after they crashed in 2008.
OPEC producers are known for their low cost of production, but even they report needing high oil prices. The cost of extracting the oil is reported to be very low (perhaps $10 per barrel), but the price charged needs to be high enough to allow governments to collect very high taxes on the oil extracted. If prices are high enough, these countries can continue the food subsidies that their populations depend upon. They can also sponsor development programs to provide jobs for the ever-growing populations of these countries. OPEC producers also need to develop new oil fields because the old ones deplete.
Oil production outside of the United States and Canada entered a bumpy plateau in 2005. The US and Canada added oil production from shale and bitumen in recent years, helping to keep world oil production (including natural gas liquids) rising.
One reason why producers need higher prices is because their cost of extraction tends to rise over time. This happens because the oil that is cheapest to extract and process tends to be extracted first, leaving the oil with higher cost of extraction until later.
Some OPEC countries, such as Saudi Arabia, can hide the low price problem for a while by borrowing money. But even this approach does not work well for long. The longer low oil prices last, the greater the danger is of governments being overthrown by unhappy citizens. Oil production can then be expected to become erratic because of internal conflicts.
In the US and Canada, oil companies have been funded by bank loans, bond sales and the sale of shares of stock. These sources of funding are drying up, as many oil companies report poor earnings, year after year, and some are seeking bankruptcy protection.
Chart 6 shows that the number of drilling rigs in operation has dropped dramatically in both the United States and Canada, as oil companies cut back on drilling. There is a lag between the time the number of drilling rigs is cut back and the time production starts to fall of perhaps a year, in the case of shale. These low drilling rig counts suggest that US and Canadian oil production from shale will fall in 2021.
Of course, unused drilling rigs cannot be mothballed indefinitely. At some point, they are sold as scrap and the workers who operated them find other employment. It then becomes difficult to restart oil extraction.
How the Economy Works, and What Goes Wrong as Limits Are Reached
Slide 7 shows one way of visualizing how the world economy, as a self-organizing system, operates. It is somewhat like a child’s building toy. New layers are added as new consumers, new businesses and new laws are added. Old layers tend to disappear, as old consumers die, old products are replaced by new products, and new laws replace old laws. Thus, the structure is to some extent hollow.
Self-organizing objects that grow require energy under the laws of physics. Our human bodies are self-organizing systems that grow. We use food as our source of energy. The economy also requires energy products of many kinds, such as gasoline, jet fuel, coal and electricity to allow it to operate.
It is easy to see that energy consumption allows the economy to produce finished goods and services, such as homes, automobiles, and medical services. It is less obvious, but just as important, that energy consumption provides jobs that pay well. Without energy supplies in addition to food, typical jobs would be digging in the dirt with a stick or gathering food with our hands. These jobs don’t pay well.
Finally, Slide 7 shows an important equivalence between consumers and employees. If consumers are going to be able to afford to buy the output of the economy, they need to have adequate wages.
A typical situation that arises is that population rises more quickly than energy resources, such as land to grow food. For a while, it is possible to work around this shortfall with what is called added complexity: hierarchical organization, specialization, technology, and globalization. Unfortunately, as more complexity is added, the economic system increasingly produces winners and losers. The losers end up with very low wage jobs, or with no jobs at all. The winners get huge wages and often asset ownership, as well. The winners end up with far more revenue than they need to purchase basic goods and services. The losers often do not have enough revenue to feed their families and to buy basic necessities, such as a home and some form of basic transportation.
The strange way the economy works has to do with the physics of the situation. Physicist Francois Roddier explains this as being similar to what happens to water at different temperatures. When the world economy has somewhat inadequate energy supplies, the goods and services produced by the economy tend to bubble to the top members of the world economy, similar to the way steam rises. The bottom members of the economy tend to get “frozen out.” This way, the economy can downsize without losing all members of the economy, simultaneously. This is the way ecosystems of all kinds adapt to changing conditions: The plants and animals that are best adapted to the conditions of the time tend to be the survivors.
These issues are related to the fact that the economy is, in physics terms, a dissipative structure. The economy, like hurricanes and like humans, requires adequate energy if it is not to collapse. Dissipative structures attempt to work around temporary shortfalls in energy supplies. A human being will lose weight if his caloric intake is restricted for a while. A hurricane will lose speed, if the energy it gets from the warm water of the ocean is restricted. A world economy with inadequate energy is likely to shrink back in many ways: unprofitable businesses may fail, layers of government may disappear and population may fall, for example.
In the discussion of Slide 7, I mentioned the fact that if we try to “stretch” energy supply with added complexity, many workers would end up with very low wages. Some of these low wage workers would be in the US and Europe, but many of them would be in China, India and Africa. Even though these workers are producing goods for the world economy, they often cannot afford to buy those same goods themselves. Henry Ford is remembered to have said something to the effect that he needed to pay his workers enough so that they, themselves, could buy the cars they were making. To a significant extent, this is no longer happening when a person takes into account international workers.
The high interest rates that low-wage workers pay mean that loans don’t really help low-wage workers as much as they help high-wage workers. The high interest on credit card debt and personal loans tend to transfer part of the income of low-wage workers to the financial sector, leaving poor people worse off than they would have been without the loans.
COVID shutdowns are extremely damaging to the world economy. They are like taking support sticks out of the dome on Slide 7. They produce many more unemployed people around the world. People in low wage countries that produce clothing for a living have been particularly hard hit, for example. Migrant workers and miners of various kinds have also been hard hit.
We Seem to Be Reaching a Major Turning Point
Oil production and consumption have both fallen in 2020; oil prices are far too low for producers; wage disparity is a major problem; countries seem to be increasingly having problems getting along. Many analysts are forecasting a prolonged recession.
The last time that we had a similar situation was in 1913, when the largest coal producer in the world was the United Kingdom. The UK’s cost of coal production kept rising because of depletion (deeper mines, thinner seams), but prices would not rise to compensate for the higher cost of production. Miners were paid very inadequate wages; poor workers regularly held strikes for higher wages. World War I started in 1914, the same year coal production of the UK started to fall. The UK’s coal production has fallen nearly every year since then.
The last time that wage disparity started to spike as badly as it has in recent years occurred back in the late 1920s, or perhaps as early as 1913 to 1915. The chart shown above is for the US; problems were greater in Europe at that time.
With continued low oil prices, production is likely to start falling and may continue to fall for years. It is hard to bring scrapped drilling rigs back into service, for example. The experience in the UK with coal shows that energy prices don’t necessarily rise to compensate for higher costs due to depletion. There need to be buyers for higher-priced goods made with higher-priced coal. If there is too much wage disparity, the many poor people in the system will tend to keep demand, and prices, too low. They may eat poorly, making it easier for pandemics to spread, as with the Spanish Flu in 1918-1919. These people will be unhappy, leading to the rise of leaders promising to change the system to make things better.
My concern is that we may be heading into a long period of unrest, as occurred in the 1913 to 1945 era. Instead of getting high energy prices, we will get disruption of the world economy. The self-organizing economy is attempting to fix itself, either by getting more energy supply or by eliminating parts of the economy that aren’t contributing enough to the overall system. Conflict between countries, pandemics, bankruptcies and economic contraction are likely to be part of the mix.
Coal Seems to Be Reaching Extraction Limits as Well
Coal has essentially the same problem as oil: Prices tend to be too low for producers to extract coal profitably. Many coal producers have gone bankrupt. Prices were higher back in 2008, when demand was high for everything, and again in 2011, when quantitative easing had been helpful.
There have been stories in the press in the past week about China limiting coal imports from Australia, so as to make more jobs for coal miners in China. The big conflict among countries relates to “not enough jobs that pay well” and “not enough profitable companies.” These indirectly are energy issues. If there was more “affordability” of goods made with high-priced coal, there would be no problem.
Coal production worldwide has been on a bumpy plateau since 2012. In fact, China, the largest producer of coal, found its production stagnating, starting about 2012. The problem was a familiar one: The cost of extraction rose because many mines that had been used for quite a number of years were depleted. The selling price would not rise to match the higher cost of extraction because of affordability issues.
The underlying problem is that the economy is a dissipative structure. Commodity prices are set by the laws of physics. Prices don’t rise high enough for producers, if there are not enough customers willing and able to buy the goods made with high-priced coal.
We Have a Major Problem if Both Coal and Oil Production Are in Danger of Falling Because of Low Prices
Oil and coal are the two largest sources of energy in the world. We can’t get along without them. While natural gas production is fairly high, there is not nearly enough natural gas to replace both oil and coal.
Looking down the list, we see that nuclear production hit a maximum back in 2006 and has fallen since then.
Hydroelectric continues to grow, but from a small base. Most of the good sites have already been taken. In many cases, there are conflicts between countries regarding who should get the benefit of water from a given river.
The only grouping that is growing rapidly is Renewables. (This is really Renewables Other than Hydroelectric.) It includes wind and solar plus a few other energy types, including geothermal. This grouping, too, is very small compared to oil and coal.
Natural Gas Has a Low Price Problem as Well
Natural gas, at first glance, looks like it might be a partial solution to the world’s energy problems: It is lower in carbon than coal and oil, and it is fairly abundant. The problem with natural gas is that it is terribly expensive to ship. At one time, people used to talk about there being a lot of “stranded” natural gas. This natural gas seemed to be available, but when shipping costs were included, the price of goods made with it (such as electricity or winter heat for homes) was often unaffordable.
After the run-up in oil prices in the early 2000s, many people became optimistic that, with energy scarcity, natural gas prices would rise sufficiently to make extraction and shipping long distances profitable. Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly clear that, while prices can temporarily spike due to scarcity and perhaps a debt bubble, keeping the prices up for the long run is extremely difficult. Customers need to be able to afford the goods and services made with these energy products, or the laws of physics bring market prices back down to an affordable level.
The prices in the chart reflect three different natural gas products. The lowest priced one is US Henry Hub, which is priced near the place of extraction, so long distance shipping is not an issue. The other two, German Import and Japan Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), include different quantities of long distance shipping. Prices in 2020 are even lower than in 2019. For example, some LNG imported by Japan has ben purchased for $4 per million Btu in 2020.
The Economy Needs a Bail-Out Similar to the Growth of Oil After WWII
The oil that was produced shortly after World War II had very important characteristics:
- It was very inexpensive to produce, and
- It could be sold to customers at a far higher price than its cost of production.
It was as if, today, we had a very useful energy product that could be produced and delivered for $4, but it was so valuable to consumers that they were willing to pay $120 for it. In other words, the consumer was willing to pay 30 times as much as the cost that went into extracting and refining the oil.
With an energy product this valuable, a company producing it would need virtually no debt. It could drill a well or two, and with the profits from the first wells, finance the investment of many more wells. The company could pay very high taxes, allowing governments to build roads, schools, electricity transmission lines and much other infrastructure, without having to raise taxes on citizens.
Besides using the profits for reinvestment and for taxes, oil companies could pay high dividends. This made oil company stocks favorites of pension plans. Thus, in a way, oil company profits could help subsidize pension plans, as well.
Now, because of depletion, we have reached a situation where oil companies, and in fact most companies, are unprofitable. Companies and governments keep adding debt at ever lower interest rates. In fact, the tradition of ever-increasing debt at ever-lower interest rates goes back to 1981. Thus, we have been using debt manipulation to hide energy problems for almost 40 years now.
We need a way to counteract this trend toward ever-lower returns. Some people talk about “Energy Return on Energy Investment” or EROEI. I gave an example in dollars, but a major thing those dollars are buying is energy, so the result is very similar.
I think researchers have set the “bar” far too low, in looking at what is an adequate EROEI. Today’s wind and solar don’t really have an adequate EROEI, when the full cost of delivery is included. If they did, they would not need the subsidy of “going first” on the electric grid. They would also be able to pay high taxes instead of requiring subsidies, year after year. We need much better solutions than the ones we have today.
Some researchers talk about “Net Energy per Capita,” calculated as ((Energy Delivered to the End User) minus (Energy Used in Making and Transporting Energy to the End User)) divided by (Population). It seems to me that Net Energy per Capita needs to stay at least constant, and perhaps rise. If net energy per capita could actually rise, it would allow the economy to increasingly fight depletion and pollution.
Conclusion: We Need a New Very Inexpensive Energy Source Now
We need a new, very inexpensive energy source that buyers will willingly pay a disproportionately high price for right now, not 20 or 50 years from now.
The alternative may be an economy that does poorly for a long time or collapses completely.
The one ray of hope, from a researcher’s perspective, is the fact that people are always looking for solutions. They may be able to provide funds for research at this time, even if funds for full implementation are unlikely.
Government by Decree—Lord Sumption’s judgement of what the British Government is doing is damning. Employing coercion, compulsion, prohibition, and utilizing the power to confine healthy people by regulation. This is a long listen, but a very good one.
On 27 October 2020 Lord Sumption delivered the 2020 Cambridge Freshfields Lecture entitled “Government by decree – Covid-19 and the Constitution”.
The disputes over Brexit last year saw an attempt to make the executive, not Parliament, the prime source of authority in the Constitution. The coronavirus crisis has provoked another attempt to marginalise Parliament, this time with the willing acquiescence of the House of Commons. Is this to be our future?
Lord Sumption is an author, historian and lawyer of note. He was appointed directly from the practising Bar to the Supreme Court, and served as a Supreme Court Justice from 2012-18. In 2019, he delivered the BBC Reith Lectures, “Law and the Decline of Politics”, and is now a regular commentator in the media. He continues to sit as a Non-Permanent Judge of the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal. Alongside his career as a lawyer, he has also produced a substantial and highly-regarded narrative history of the Hundred Years’ War between England and France (with volume V still to come).
https://youtu.be/amDv2gk8aa0
I am glad somebody noticed the disregard of whole of the legal and political system not be mention God given rights.
In case you wonder why the stock markets are still high, the answer is easy:
“It also means that the virus resurgence and the reemergence of lockdowns and growth weakness could bolster the above equity upside via inducing more QE and thus more liquidity creation.” (JP Morgan).
the full article is really, really good.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/moment-brutal-honesty-jpmorgan-says-economic-disaster-and-more-lockdowns-will-be-great
I agree that the article is good. This is another part of the article:
As long as Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell stays in power, the situation should be fine. In fact, a deadlocked congress versus president would be ideal, because then the Federal Reserve will call the shots.
Re: Biden’s brain
It sounds like Biden is absolutely wrecked on skunk in public – but this is just his normal self. His mind is gone.
What on earth is going on in USA?
> The man who could be America’s next president in three days: Barack Obama had to call Joe Biden three times before he finally emerged at Michigan rally, then had to remind him to put his mask back on and help guide him off the stage
…. The first came as Obama had just finished warming up for his old Vice President, and tried to welcome him to the stage by shouting: ‘My friend, the next President of the United State of America, Joe Biden!’
But Biden was nowhere to be seen, prompting Obama to shout for him again.
Several more awkward seconds passed, as Sir Duke by Stevie Wonder – who performed at a different Biden rally that day – began playing over the loudspeakers.
Eventually Biden emerged, jogging over to the stage from a nearby school building as Obama tried to get the crowd – who were confined to their cars as a Covid precaution – fired up, shouting: ‘Honk if you’re ready!’
During the rally itself, Biden also appeared to stumble over the word ‘healthcare’ while lining up a shot at the newest member of the Supreme Court – a Trump nominee – Amy Coney Barrett.
‘Donald Trump thinks health care is a privilege, Barack and I think it’s a right to have badakathcare,’ he said.
He fumbled again at the end of the rally, as Obama returned to the stage wearing a facemask and the two waved to the crowd before going off together.
Biden – who was wearing a mask as he emerged before removing to speak – appeared to forget he hadn’t put it back on as he departed.
Obama stopped him at the top of the stage steps and said a few words to him, after which he jogged back to the podium in search of the face covering.
After about 20 second of fumbling, Biden eventually found the face covering – which was in his pocket, not on the podium – and put it back in place.
There was then further confusion as he picked his microphone back up from the podium where he had left it, and seemed to try and talk into it.
It appeared the microphone had been disconnected, because Biden quickly placed it back down without saying anything and followed Obama off stage.
The frequent slip-ups, which began during the presidential primaries and have continued throughout Biden’s main run, have raised doubts about his fitness for office, and Republicans have hammered him over it ….
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8905253/Election-2020-Joe-Biden-suffers-senior-moments-Michigan-rally.html
A manufactured parody. An intended cringe fest.
A vote for Biden is a vote against your own sanity and an one-way ticket to the mental asylum.
It is by design according to spec.
Btw, Biden reminds of the Swedish PM.
It seems designed to humiliate us.
I don’t watch TV, but I get some glimpses of the farce on YT.
It was entertaining for some time, but now its an unbearable cringe fest.
“During the rally itself, Biden also appeared to stumble over the word ‘healthcare’ while lining up a shot at the newest member of the Supreme Court – a Trump nominee – Amy Coney Barrett.
‘Donald Trump thinks health care is a privilege, Barack and I think it’s a right to have badakathcare,’ he said.
LMAO !!! 😀
A vote for Biden is a vote for whoever is telling him what to do.
Exactly
It all just doesn’t matter if they had finally overcome (this year thanks to “AI” – altering the early mail in votes) the old safety feature of american voting system, i.e. distributed patchwork of counties and individual states which differ somewhat in the voting settings where some small % of fraud was possible, but not complete subversion. The young did note vote for the basement – Joe exactly in swarms, the ethnic minorities are increasingly abandoning the past allegiance (Dems), lot of elderly voters staying home, many of middle aged traditional non voters are eager to vote this season “against chaos” etc.. yet Don is filling up (well smaller ones) stadiums. The outcome of fair elections should be thus very clear and with very %% shocking gap between the contenders vs fake polls. However, if they managed to alter ~5-20M votes it will end up as close and possibly contested race, perhaps they undershoot the situation and opted for lower risk strategy: altering only little amount of the mail in votes and instead turned up the msm propaganda on the max (and censored the net reach – search algorithms).
Some hints on the situation as of last year:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/27/paperless-voting-machines-eac-survey-1385307
No way. Do you sincerely mean that Dems use AI and then proceeds to “elect” Biden/Harris as candidates?
If that would be the case, that AI surely isn’t working for them.
No, they were relying on the propagandists. It worked very well the last time with crooked Hillary, why not do a rerun of that outstanding success.
The Dems probably wonder WTF is actually going on.
Believing Google and Facebook is on the Dems side is… Well, something not so flattening. Twitter? What is Twitter than the perfect propaganda channel for orange man bad?
https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/60078346.jpg
It’s not about front assembled and disposable clown-Dems, but the perennial apparatus behind them.. But perhaps you are right and they just relied on the msm and tech censorship, also the unexpected change and the supreme court few weeks ago likely nixed the more cunning plans in the pipeline..
Do you think that the tech oligarchs are the errand boys of the banker consumerist bonanza bozos peddlers?
Forget about it, they are running this show on their own, and now, yes, the bankers are their biatches.
The world is switching from tangibles to intangibles. It is inevitable.
Smoke and mirrors, smoke and mirrors everywhere. Want to rule a 160IQ nerd assisted by virtually unlimited compute, AI and game theory, be prepared to hire a 170IQ psychopath. Not many of those in existence I can assure you.
Metamorphosis.
“‘We’ve Lost Our Country’: Lebanese Flee an Imploding Economy:
“A new exodus is taking root as Lebanon’s crises plunge the middle class into poverty and the poor into destitution.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/weve-lost-our-country-lebanese-flee-an-imploding-economy-11604324182
“When Lebanon’s financial crisis pushed Vartkes to leave for Armenia this summer, he never imagined he would volunteer to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh.”
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/despite-domestic-crisis-lebanon-s-armenians-join-nagorno-karabakh-fighting-1.9278617
“[Foreign maids in Lebanon] have been working for no pay, stuck in abusive households, or dumped outside embassies. At least seven have committed suicide since March, according to local media outlets.”
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/11/01/the-real-housekeepers-of-beirut/
Lebanon has certainly joined the list of countries with a lot of problems. Also Syria, Venezuela, Yemen.
Yes! As others in the alternative media have warned, that more people will die as a result of imploding economies bringing on starvation, poverty and disease. Hey but at least Greta Thunberg can smile while the likes of Klaus Schwab tries to implement her utopian Green World.
Covid 19 is one giant fraud.
Calhoun showed how that ‘utopia’ would end.
But what would the degenerates of a ‘World Government’ be without the herd and the loony socialist engineering crackpottery they seem happy to deliver upon the world as genetic secretions in their MSM wh0rehouses?
But that won’t make a difference anyway, because the suck in a crafted rat dystopia is much better than an overpopulated planet with finite resources and raging consumerist bonanza.
What is their problem one might wonder, beside the obvious psychopathy? Well, they got complacent and arrogant. Now they got this shit to deal with and the tools of the good olden days does not seem to work particularly well anymore.
in case American voters weren’t scared enough yet
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/lindsey-graham-womens-place_n_5f9f4b88c5b658b27c3bb27d
Getting psychologically prepared for four more years of trick or treat, Norman?
https://henrymakow.com/upload_images/stone-election.jpg
Tile: “Lindsey Graham Says U.S. Has A ‘Place’ For Women Who ‘Follow Traditional Family Structure’”
We may be headed in this direction, but I don’t think many people are ready for this yet. A big problem is that most men cannot afford to support a wife and children on a single income.
Gail,
There also seems to be a trend where men who can afford wives are taking a pass – the divorce laws are so horribly against a man that unless one marries a woman with comparable assets, it is a lose situation. If you are a woman and work to build up assets prior to having children the risk of being too old for children is real, the risk of settling for less(there is less to chose from, much less) is real. If the woman is Supreme Court material, yes, one can have it all, it has always been that way for people with great talent, not so much for most of the population.
The media really hit Lindsey on that one, he basically said those who chose that place are accepted in his state, not looked down upon, Lindsey respected their choice.
We are pretty traditional here, but the odds are stacked against the guy. Even with older women, mature if you will, more than one would think they are looking to cut costs, move in with someone and then the risks to the guy are still there along with possible health care costs.
Men and women are in a difficult place, and it takes a team – tradition, I think it also takes time to build goodwill, now throw in money and it isn’t easy.
Dennis L.
You are probably right about even rich men being afraid of marriage because of the possibility of losing too much if things go wrong. A man can very well lose a big part of his assets, even pension. With older couples, the issue may be whose children the inheritance should go to.
With two women or two men getting married, there isn’t much of an issue if divorce should occur, except that it costs more for two to live separately than together.
Well, Gail, the financial loss from a divorce is perhaps even more painful for the very rich, as they love their money so very much – much more than sane ordinary people for whom it is a necessity and a way of buying pleasures. For the rich, it is an end in itself and beautiful to contemplate.
“Iraq has slipped deeper into crisis as the downturn in oil prices has left the government struggling to raise funds to pay salaries, coronavirus cases have soared and militias roam freely, striking fear into their critics.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e8a3aff8-25e8-414e-bc09-1bbd6eaaa92e
“Algeria, with a population of 44 million and vast oil reserves, has been battered by low crude prices and the coronavirus pandemic, further hurting a young population already suffering from spiralling unemployment.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1757196/middle-east
“After easing its fiscal rules and raising taxes, Russia is running out of options to bolster public finances strained by the coronavirus pandemic and the collapse in the price of oil, its main export.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/russia-economy-budget/analysis-pandemic-strains-russian-bid-to-boost-public-finances-idUKL8N2HL412
reinforces my point that oil has no value until it is taken out of the ground and burned
Russia, Algeria or anywhere else, the rule applies everywhere
even sitting on an oilfield, people still go broke
population in 1960 was 11 million that is the problem unrestrained population increase
All of the oil exporting countries are likely to have huge problems from low oil prices. This will make it increasingly difficult to import oil.
“More airlines are likely to collapse in the coming months if governments cut aid to the industry devastated by the coronavirus-induced slump, with experts saying a full fledged recovery is likely to be pushed back to 2024.
“Demand for air travel is lagging even the most pessimistic of recovery scenarios…”
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3107957/airlines-facing-bleak-winter-and-full-recovery-seen-only-2024
“Carriers in jurisdictions where there is scant support from up high are most likely to go bust, according to an analysis by Bloomberg News… Bloomberg sifted through available data on listed commercial airlines to identify the ones most prone to financial strife…
“The list now is populated more by carriers in Africa and Latin America, where some have already folded or entered administration. Representatives from Medview Airlines Plc, Precision Air Services Ltd., Grupo Aeromexico SAB and Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA didn’t immediately respond to requests seeking comment.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-01/these-are-the-airlines-teetering-on-the-brink-as-covid-drags-on
It is difficult to keep any airline operational, except for perhaps ones that do cargo only flights, operational today.
The existence of nations, which is a speciation event in technological life, encourages competitive evolution and production of massive amounts of defensive and offensive weaponry. As soon as growth stops and competition intensifies the weaponry is likely to be mercilessly used. If one world government is abandoned we will have massively destructive warfare and terminal filling of waste sinks (maybe too late already). If one world government succeeds we will have some severe limitations on the pursuit of happiness, growth and property ownership (Maximum Power Principle curtailment.) But you can probably count on the oligarchs (flawed dissipatives that they are) to try and maintain their own accumulated wealth and advantage which, considering that we are naturally competitive and hierarchical species, will cause massive resentment and splintering of the one world government into competitive tribes once again (unless they watch everything closely to stamp-out dissent.)
I remember reading that in the past, there was a lot of fighting among oligarchs. I cannot image ones from China, Russia, the UK, and the US getting along.
If you want the tl;dr version. It’s scary BAD.
“What Oil Companies Face: The WTF-Collapse of Consumption of Gasoline & Jet Fuel from Long-Term Weakness”
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/11/01/what-us-oil-companies-face-the-wtf-collapse-of-consumption-of-gasoline-jet-fuel-from-long-term-weakness/
Nice charts of how bad things are, with respect to oil consumption.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/US-fuel-demand-2020-10-31-gasoline-jet-fuel-distillate-combined-.png
“…For the first time, in 60 per cent of the global economy — including 97 per cent of advanced economies — central banks have pushed policy interest rates below 1 per cent. In one-fifth of the world, they are negative. With little room for further rate cuts, central banks have deployed unconventional measures.
“Despite this effort, persistently low inflation — and in some cases intermittent deflation — has raised the spectre of further monetary easing to achieve negative real rates if another shock strikes. It has led to the inescapable conclusion that the world is in a global liquidity trap, where monetary policy has limited effect. We must agree on appropriate policies to climb out.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2e1c0555-d65b-48d1-9af3-825d187eec58
“Central banks are… now in a bind. Those like the RBA and the Bank of England, with heavily indebted household sectors on floating rate mortgages, cannot raise interest rates without collapsing disposable income, but neither can they stimulate activity as rates are already so low.
“There is a powerful image used in economics to describe policy impotence of pushing on a string, which is where we now are with the household sector and monetary policy.”
https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/painful-truth-of-the-great-monetary-experiment-20201101-p56ag5
Households with no income can’t afford to borrow more regardless of the interest rates; businesses with inadequate income (airlines and restaurants) can’t afford to borrow more. Local governments often cannot borrow for basic needs such as schools.
And raising rates, or raising the price of fuel, would be a disaster.
“…Sinking people don’t usually have a trenchant analysis of reality. All they require is the promise that their hard-won sense of status will not go down the drain; and an explanation, any explanation, on which to hang their hopes. American society leaves people so confused and reality so disjointed that almost any formula which pretends to put the pieces together and appeals to what people think of as their self-interest may prove acceptable.”
33 years ahead of his time, Kurt Vonnegut on the future of the United States (1987).
Chaired—if my facial recognition skills are not deceiving me—by Betty Friedan.
I just wanna say that what we don’t dare talk about is the reason that we have gathered here. It’s about short-term thinking. But what we’re hear to talk about is what’s going to happen to everything we have now when the excrement hits the air conditioning. The meeting this morning said that we are right over the San Andreas Fault. And experts on finance say that it is surely going to crumble. And if we treat each other this badly in a time of prosperity on borrowed money, how are we going to treat each other when the trouble comes. And I don’t think the trouble’s coming—the people who spoke this morning said it.
Now, Weimar was mentioned once. And I think you know what Weimar was the prelude to. And if the excrement is going to hit the air conditioning, the N A Z I thing will start here. And that’s what we’re meeting about—is how the hell are we gonna fight that. . .
1987 Video with Kurt Vonnegut speaking. What will happen when the excrement hits the air conditioning. How do we treat each other when the trouble comes? The Nazi thing will hit here. Can’t stop the depression that is coming.
Need modern oath for all scientists, like Hippocratic Oath, saying that they won’t use their skills in a way that causes harm. When he brought up the idea at MIT and Carnegie, nobody cared about the idea. The only work open to future these people is jobs like the government’s SDI [Strategic Defense Initiative]. People won’t have any money if they take an oath only to do ethical work.
Vonnegut was much too restrained here. He became more clear-thinking as the years progressed and had this exchange on Bill Maher’s show in 2005:
VONNEGUT: No, look, I think it’s – I think the earth’s immune system is trying to get rid of us, and it’s high time [it] did. My goodness, we are a disease on the face of this planet. You know, after two world wars and the Holocaust, and Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and, well, the Roman games and the Spanish Inquisition, and the burning of women in public squares. It’s time we got out of here, and I —
MAHER: You left out “The Gong Show.” [laughter]
VONNEGUT: Yeah, but we are a disease on the planet. And I think we ought to become “syphilis with a conscience” and stop reproducing. [laughter] [applause]
Maher tries to tone it down with a joke and Vonnegut keeps it going with a joke excellent
The point about subsidizing unprofitable sectors like shale oil or electric cars is keeping their supplying sectors profitable. The top of the pyramid is always unprofitable.
The ultimate goal is keeping the civilization functioning in the areas with a favourable clmt for the human species.
The current lockdowns and shutdowns are completely in line with the current trend of the ageing productive populations of the 1st world: the non-essential sectors like entertainment or tourism using flights are eliminated.
I would call the producers of ho a x and their followers as being a part of the entertainment industry. It is mostly the people from the non-essential sectors who become desperate and spread misinformations.
I was thinking it is the elite in charge with their own agenda that is the principal source of spreading misinformation, like lockdowns, face masks, anti-social distancing and vaccines are essential.
>>It is mostly the people from the non-essential sectors who become desperate and spread misinformations.
Like what for example?
The lockdowns indeed do help eliminate non-essential sectors. In fact, I expect that secondary impacts of COVID-19 will eliminate even more non-essential sector jobs in 2021. This seems to be from the physics of how the economic system works.
Yes, that’s my conclusion as well.
Cant have the good without the bad apparently.
Mutti giving UBI to the German car industry.
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/germany-aims-provide-23b-aid-help-auto-industry-make-tech-shift
“Germany has agreed to a 2 billion euro ($2.3 billion) aid package to help the country’s automakers and suppliers switch to greener engines and automated driving, according to an economy ministry paper seen by Reuters on Monday.”
Im sure they see a glorious and prosperous future for the car industry when people work from home, rite?
One world almost worked on 1914 when the world was kind of one.
The uninvited guests in the advanced worlds will be asked to leave. Politely at first, not that politely at the second time.
Then a one world govt will take place.
The amount of international trade was low back then, compared to today. The individual countries could take care of their own populations to a much greater extent than today.
I found this to be very informative.
Government trained OSHA mask experts Tammy Clark & Kristen Meghan join Del Bigrtee in-studio to break down vital info on masks, PPE (Personal Protective Equipment), and their role in #Covid19 prevention. Every adult on this planet wearing a mask needs to hear this riveting discussion.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/nKU8JO1YPL6m/
Excellent video Tim.
As I suspected, masks are for normies!
https://www.henrymakow.com/upload_images/state.png
Wow. And the worst of all is that we know it works perfectly. Damn that Bernays and his kind of shrewd PR bast.ards. (In fact i admire them, as i admire intelligence above everything else.)
“I found that ideas were weapons and were even more effective than bullets.”
‘Psychologists have shown: People only accept in what they read, what they a priori believe, that they accept nothing that they dont already believe, and that the only way to ‘gain’ belief is first to research to find out whether they respond to authority, to reason, to persuasion or to tradition.”
Edward Bernays, founder of the art of “engineering consent”.
This movie was on over the weekend.
It seems that the ‘messages’ are in your face now.
https://data.whicdn.com/images/67998843/original.jpg
Yup, when the consumerist bonanza ends due to finite world issues, gotta control the herd some other way.
However, people is leaving MSM in droves. Getting black pilled, right, left and center.
It’s a metamorphosis.
Biden or Trump won’t make a difference.
That ship sailed a long time ago.
Conform. Buy. Do as you are told.
I looked to see where it is from. It seems to be Canadian.
Breaking.
> Exclusive: Nigel Farage to relaunch Brexit Party as Reform UK, a new anti-lockdown platform
Mr Farage and Mr Tice declare ‘lockdowns don’t work’, and say their new party will back a policy of ‘focused protection’ from coronavirus
The Brexit Party is to be relaunched as an anti-lockdown party called Reform UK, Nigel Farage and Richard Tice will announce on Monday, in a move which could alarm libertarian Conservative MPs.
In a joint article for Monday’s Telegraph, Mr Farage and Mr Tice declare that “lockdowns don’t work”, and say their new party will back a policy of “focused protection” from coronavirus only for the most vulnerable, to allow the rest of the population to develop herd immunity.
The plans to change the name of the Brexit Party to Reform UK are subject to approval of the Electoral Commission. Papers were submitted to the regulator last week.
Reform UK hopes to stand a slate of candidates at May’s elections – when the Tories are contesting thousands of shire seats, as well as policing and crime commissioner elections – and the next general election, expected by 2024.
The news will worry Conservative MPs, scarred by the way that Mr Farage’s previous Eurosceptic parties – the UK Independence Party and the Brexit Party – sapped support for the Tory party at previous elections.
The Brexit Party – which won 29 seats in last year’s European Parliament elections 10 weeks after it was set up – claimed to have 150,000 ‘registered supporters’ at its peak, although numbers are understood to have fallen to tens of thousands since then. Hundreds of thousands of pounds has been said to have been pledged for the re-badged party.
Mr Farage said he expected to find support among people whose businesses have been adversely affected by the lockdown, such as the self-employed, restaurateurs and others in the hospitality industry.
He said: “We feel there is a massive political hole at the moment. The crisis has shown how badly governed we are – everything from our quangoes to the £12bn we have wasted on track and trace, to firms being given the most ludicrous contracts, to illegal immigration where we tough talk and nothing ever happens.
“The whole system of government in the UK is not working, and is therefore in need of very radical reform. Brexit is about making us free, but beyond Brexit we have to be governed better. Brexit is the beginning of what we need. Brexit gives us self-governance – we now need to have good self-governance.”
In a joint article for the Telegraph, Mr Farage, the Brexit Party leader, and Mr Tice, the party’s chairman, make clear that the new party’s focus over the next few months will be fighting lockdown measures.
They say: “Lockdowns don’t work: in fact, they cause more harm than good. But there is a credible alternative, recommended by some of the finest epidemiologists and medics in the world. It is the Great Barrington Declaration. It is effectively being practised to a large degree in Sweden, with considerable success.
“Focused protection is the key, targeting resources at those most at risk: the elderly, vulnerable or those with other medical conditions. Many of them of course would prefer to hug their grandchildren and enjoy a family Christmas with loved ones. They should not be criminalised for the simple acts that make life worth living, particularly in their final years.
“The rest of the population should, with good hygiene measures and a dose of common sense, get on with life. This way we build immunity in the population. The young act as warriors, creating a shield of protection. Multi generational households will of course need to implement stricter measures.”
They add: “Every death is a huge loss for family, friends and loved ones. But we must put Covid-related deaths into perspective. Around 1,600 people die every day in the UK, for some reason or other.
“The average age of a coronavirus fatality is 82: older than average life expectancy. The truth is this horrible illness is only very dangerous for a tiny minority of people.
“The average person has more than a 99.5 per cent chance of surviving the disease if they catch it. We must have the courage to live with the virus, not hide in fear of it.”
The party will back the Great Barrington Declaration, a policy backed by thousands of scientists and doctors, which advocates only requiring the elderly and most vulnerable to lock down.
The pair add: “Reform is the only significant political party that supports the Great Barrington Declaration. We are showing the courage needed to take on consensus thinking and vested interests on Covid.
“But there are so many areas of public life that can be improved to benefit ordinary people. That is why we will campaign for Reform.”
….
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/11/01/exclusive-nigel-farage-relaunch-brexit-party-reform-uk-new-anti/
They have my support. I will go find their website and donate money.
Boris is quaking in his boots.
https://media.breitbart.com/media/2020/11/GettyImages-1229382356-640×480.jpeg
Does Mr Farrage still have any credibility in UK?
Nigel can certainly take enough votes off the Tories to panic them. It would not be surprising if his new Reform UK party took 15% – 20% of the overall vote in the May council elections, like UKIP and TBP did.
He pressurised TP into the Brexit referendum without winning a single MP just by eating away at the TP vote and making the TP worry about losing to LP. That is undoubtedly his strategy now.
LP is now ahead of TP in polls, so TP will worry about this. They do not have any ‘buffer’ to protect them from RUK. TP was 30 points ahead in polls six months ago but they have blown that.
The TP message then was to ‘get Brexit done’, and the MSM was all over Corbyn for ‘anti-s emitism’ back then, but things change. Starmer is doing well, Brexit has a Dec. 31 deadline, TP is collapsed in polls and it seem unclear what distinct ‘message’ TP really has now.
So, what with lock down 2, this is the perfect time for Nigel to unpack his stool. It is undoubtedly an OMG moment for TP. It also puts pressure on TP to go with a ‘no deal’ Brexit because RUK will certainly take up the issue of any TP concessions to EU.
A light interlude. The English among us may remember this old song, Nellie the elephant, from our childhood, sung by a 12-year-old girl on a record released in 1956 and often played on the radio thereafter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28Rh9zRdXxA&fbclid
If you should come across somebody dying of COVID-19, be sure to play ‘Nellie the elephant’ while giving them CPR. From Wikipedia:
The rhythm and tempo of this song is often used to teach people the rhythm of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). The recommended rate for CPR is 100 chest compressions per minute. A study at Coventry University compared the effectiveness of this song in maintaining this rhythm with an alternative of “That’s the Way (I Like It)” and no song at all. The version used for the study was from a Little Acorns brand children’s record, and was found to have a tempo of 105 beats per minute. Singing the chorus of the song twice, with a compression on each beat, results in exactly 30 compressions, which is the international standard for CPR.
The use of “Nellie” resulted in correct timing for 42 out of 130 cases, as compared with 15 for no music and just 12 for “That’s the Way (I Like It)”. However the depth of compression was found to be inadequate in most of those cases, and the use of “Nellie” was found to increase this inadequacy slightly, as compared with the use of no music (56% too shallow with “Nellie” and 47% without). More recently the Bee Gees’ “Stayin’ Alive” has been promoted as an alternative.
A much better Nellie.
Oh no, it isn’t! Fiend. Traitor. Quisling! 🙁
She mentions Trump alot in the song.
Actually he could use it as a theme song.
“She mentions Trump a lot in the song.”
Tee-hee! I noticed that. 😉
Rodster shared a link Chris Martenson’s new post yesterday.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/we-are-pawns-in-a-bigger-game-than-we-realize/
My comment today is about the part of the story that is behind the paywall.
The allegation that Chris Martenson is making behind the paywall is that the oligarchs have a grand plan, in which there will be one world order. In Martenson’s words, “France cannot remain France anymore than the US can remain the US or China remain China. They must all must become part of one entity.” Fear, generated by COVID, will allow the oligarchs to advance their plan.
The oligarchs have set up the main stream media to tell only their view of the world, one in which COVID is the big, bad thing to be afraid of. They are setting up citizens to be fearful, in much the same way the spouse abusers set up their spouses to be dependent and afraid.
He reasons that these oligarchs have come up with a plan in which they will continue to be in power, and continue to hoard resources for themselves. Getting people to lock themselves in their homes out of fear of COVID will stretch resources as far as possible. Martenson quotes a long section from the letter to Trump from Archbishop Carlo Maria Vigano, including sections such as this, indicating that others have come to a conclusion similar to his.
Martenson says that he personally doesn’t want to give his willing consent to these lying oligarchs.
I have a hard time thinking that any kind of “one world power” scheme has any possibility of working. It seems like the system needs to break into smaller pieces, even though there may be an attempt such as this to create a single large entity. In fact, Martenson says somewhere in the post that he doesn’t think the plan will get very far.
the concept of national identity didnt really come into force until we started calling the world ‘property’.
We then went about acquiring the necessary energy resources to fight over it.
before that time the ‘world’ was a single entity, not a single ‘power’, in the sense that the earth governed itself for the ultimate benefit of all (not the survival of all).
Fossil fuel usage allowed us the delusion that we could alter that arrangement for our exclusive benefit.
It has been a short lived delusion, and we seem to be living through the endgame right now.
When this phase is over, seems to me that we will revert to a state where the world was governed only for itself, by itself,
Point taken about the world as a single entity and the fleeting benefits of fossil fuel usage, but the concept of national identity all depends on how you define “national identity”.
Primitive humans live in tribes and many tribes regard outsiders as “not quite human”. Our own primitive ancestors undoubtedly formed a strong if not absolute distinction between their own tribe and strangers, foreigners, barbarians or the like. Were they nations? How about the US as one nation under God. How about the ancient Persian King Cyrus’s proclamation granting subjugated nations religious freedom? How about the Biblical prophesy, “He shall judge between many peoples, and shall arbitrate between strong nations far away; they shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks; nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war any more”?
From Survival International:
The key to understanding “indigenous” and “tribal” is to know what a “people” is. Although the word “people” can be used as the plural of “person,” it also means a distinct identifiable society. When used in this sense it is a singular, not a plural word. We often use it to refer to a nation – the Scottish are a people, as are the Moroccans. However, there are usually many different peoples existing within one country. Consider, for example, the English, Scottish, Welsh and Manx, who all exist as distinct peoples within Great Britain.
The world’s population is divided into countless peoples, each with their own particular characteristics – or “markers” – which signal belonging. One of the most obvious markers is a shared common language and identity.
If your definition of “national identity” refers to nation states, then it would go back at least to the founding of England and France as nations around a thousand years ago.
i more or less covered your comment in my reply to Lidia below.
If gods are brought into this thread, then that reinforces my point. We are the only species to have invented gods to additionally justify ‘property and ownership’
Those who hang onto and quote divine doings on our behalf are trying to confirm that human beings are physically unconnected to other species, and thus not subject to the same natural laws.
which is obvious nonsense.
Holy books are written by men, for the exclusive benefit of men. (women have more sense)
though i respect bible prophesies, uncanny—but nothing to do with any ‘god’.
The aboriginal peoples of Australia had their ‘territories’, they didn’t try to possess england as well. My overall point was about ‘ownership’ of other territories
What animals have no sense of boundary or territory? Even a fish is capable of building a little nest that is his own. This idea that humans don’t need a sense of where they belong and what in turn belongs to them is some kind of loony fairytale.
Most sensible people consider planet earth as nobody’s and everybody’s territory.
What people need is however some goddamn simple privacy. Cant have much of that in these super-unnatural behemoths called death traps. Sorry, I meant cities.
“Allemansrätten” of the Nordic countries is fantastic in that sense. You can own land, however, you can not deny people taking a hike through the property.
i think you missed the point entirely
property and territory are two different things
a daffodil occupies sufficient territory to enable survival and reproduction, so does a lion or tiger. (their territory is bigger that’s all.)
neither species seek to own territory belonging to dolphins or oak trees
that is where humans differ. We seek to ‘own’ territories that belong to other species, and call it property. A squirrel might use the oak tree to survive, but doesn’t cut it down and sell it, then try to acquire another squirrel’s tree.
A human might belong to a place, (territory) but ‘own’ places 5000 miles away. We have the means to extract ‘survival assets’ from elsewhere and add them to our own.
no other species does that.
The peak of ‘resource acquisition’ was brought about by fossil fuel burning, (ships, planes armies). When we no longer have access to that resource, the world must revert to its original state where ‘property’ becomes irrelevant.
Hard to say how long this will take—1–200 years? Maybe longer, on a decreasing scale.
You have a point there. What good is owning property 6,000 miles away if you lack the ability to travel 6,000 miles?
As an aside, in my part of the world, in the wilds of the Tamba Mountains, there is a lot of land that once had owners or tenants who farmed it or utilized its forestry resources, but these owners have disappeared, literally abandoning their property, or died, leaving the ownership of land in limbo.
The government could seize this unclaimed land, but mostly the government has no use for it either, so it might as well be in the Korean DMZ. It’s a form of rewinding by default. And as a result, my garden is visited by deers, boars and even the occasional macaque and crescent moon bear, who come to eat the chestnuts, figs and persimmons.
https://cdn.wp-modula.com/client/q_lossy,ret_img,w_1500,h_2000/http://www.globalbearconservation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Asiatic-Black-bear-Thailand-D.-Ngoprasert-opt.jpg
rewinding => rewilding (damn that auto spellcheck!)
well at least the bear looks as if he/she wants to give you a hug
Norman, I have liked you writings since I first had the opportunity and you are a most welcome voice in this mad mad world – thank you!
thanks
good to know somebody understands the points I try to put over
I don’t believe I did miss the point.
If a fish were to have opposable thumbs and a capacity to think in the abstract, why would he not lay claim to fish-nest-material on the other side of the reef?
You mistake inadequacy for virtue.
If you think that a post-FF world will be a state where property is irrelevant, I want what you are smoking. Our FF binge lasted a couple hundred years; what about all the human history before that? What about the world-wide assumption that slavery was normal, and that other people could be owned (a concept held by saintly “indigenous” to the same extent as by most colonizers).
Norman, I think you fail to understand what makes life work: competition. The fact that people may at times collaborate in order to compete doesn’t wipe that fact away. If you do not win—food, territory, mates—you lose. Evolution selects for striving, not stasis.
Competition by individual, block, village, town, city, country, region, block (the international kind) seems natural and productive.
Just a borderless world with no sense of place does not appear to make sense.
Gail has introduced me to the idea (though I’m still not all that clear) of dissipative systems that affect everything having to do with energy (which is probably everything). But aren’t dissipative systems also dispersive systems? Leave a thing unbounded and the energy disperses into infinity, whereby it can do little work. Put boundaries around everything, and the energy dissipates and disperses more slowly while getting more done.
Artleads, it’s the “getting things done” at the end of it that disperses *more* energy than if the intermediate structure hadn’t been created.
Lidia and Artleads
You make valid points but only in the context of our current existence.
But there is a question that must be answered:
Will humankind continue on its present path of infinite growth and consumption.
or
Will that growth and consumption come to stop?
Infinite growth means that we must go one acquiring infinite ‘property’ (as opposed to territory) on a finite planet. Clearly this is impossible. So the result is that some will acquire more than others, creating and imbalance of ‘assets’.
Already half the assets of the world are owned by 0.01% of the people.
Which confirms my hypothesis. And the insanity of the system we are locked into.
My main point is that humankind itself is perhaps an evolutionary dead end. There have been many such, most lasting much longer than us.
We have been around in our present from for (at best) about 1m years. An eyeblink of history in Earth terms.
For most of that 1m years we were ‘territorial’ within the context of all other species. So didn’t affect any natural order of things. We ate, reproduced and died, and recycled ourselves. We were unknowing leaseholders. Had we stayed in that condition we might have outlasted the dinosaurs.
Perhaps it was opposing thumbs that formed an evolutionary error?
But 10k years ago we switched to the concept of ‘property’. We presumed ourselves to be freeholders. We saw ourselves as free of the laws of physics, and invented gods to confirm that.
This was the point at which the Earth itself awakened to our pestilence. We acquired the means to rip the earth apart to burn our present and loot our childrens future. It would seem that the Earth has released a counter-pestilence.
So on the basis of common sense, we must answer one of the questions above. Logically our growth is going to stop. It might have stopped already.
**************
I wasn’t suggesting that ‘property’ will be irrelevant immediately post FF. I was making the point that property will become unsustainable by degrees as we run out of energy to hold onto it.
This is why/how the USA will disintegrate over the coming century. And why there will be wars of denial about it. (that is just one example).
Our willingness to make wars is the sign of our evolutionary disintegration. A lion fights for territorial rights, but does not form lion armies to take battles 1000 miles away. Our desire to do just that has destroyed the basis of our existence.
In other words we consume more than we need (and I’m as guilty of that as anyone). We also assume that this is part of some kind of evolutionary benefit. It isn’t, other than in the very short term.
I fear for my gg grandchildren. They will not enjoy my means of survival. (I stole it from them)
https://extranewsfeed.com/the-life-i-stole-from-you-f609f8db6353
Yes, consumerist bonanzas isn’t quite a thing for a rapacious primate that happened to stumble upon finite FF’s and deluded themselves that infinite growth and afterlife was da’ shit. Vested to the hilt and tilt in various delusions, avatars, symbols and Potemkin facades of wealth.
It will inevitably end. The only question is, are we going to reduce the amount of misery attributed to it or not.
To our AI overlords: Could you meddle some in the stupid monkey business, k, thx. Yes, that is of my own self-interest because it is so SHOCKINGLY FSCKING BORING.
Yes, ram up some brutal reality up their boring and entitled rear ends. Don’t spare my own pathetic ass in the process, will ya?
Love.
Norman, consumption above a subsistence level does confer evolutionary benefit in the short term, which is what is needed to get to the long term. The only reason you have, or would have, gggrandchildren is because of the resources you and/or your parents arrogated to the Pagett family. If anything, you should hope that their elbows are sharper than yours.
I would also argue that it is our modern UNwillingness to make war that has allowed the population to surge as it has, and that unwillingness is supported by relative surplus.
The fact that you even want there to be a world for your fictional or real gggrandchildren to be able to consume in their turn is part of the abstract thinking regarding conquering territory at a distance. In this case, the distance is time.
There is no use agonizing over it. Nothing about a particular evolutionary benefit implies anything about maintaining that advantage forever.
Norman, I’m an “ideas” determinist, and what led to the ideas to start with tend to be beyond my ken. I’m sure that ownership of property is part of this determinism. Although it doesn’t quite explain the crisis as I see it. Society today–ownership class or not–is incapable of seeing land other than in terms of “highest and best use” (equals it’s monetary value, a place that is incomplete without a building on it).To see it differently, populations would need to be trained in the arts and humanities, but nowadays they tend not to be.
This is just an ‘as I see it’ reply. I have been known to be wrong.
In order to facilitate survival long term, we must either hunt/scavenge for food
or
grow it close by, and cultivate it.
Option 2 presents a problem, in that lazy hunters will want to steal it.
So with option 2 one must build a wall around it. That defines what ‘property’ is, in basic terms. Our entire civilised existence stems from that, as does our infinite need to consume more of everything.
Property, and what it produces, requires guards, serfs, accountants, priests and some kind of ruling family. (who will always want more ‘property’.)
Our current crisis is the result of reaching the point of maximum consumption. In order to ‘consume’ ad infinitum, there must always be energy available which is ‘surplus’ to the needs of that consumption.
Unfortunately there isn’t.
Not a shortage of fuels per se, but we have reached the point where energy (input) costs more to get hold of than the net benefit (output) we can extract from it. This is the basic cause of world conflict and mass homelessness. People with full bellies, jobs and secure homes do not take to the streets in revolution.
Maintaining ‘property’ requires constant surplus energy input, otherwise it will (eventually) fall down. Garden shed or mega city, the rule remains the same.
The billionaire thinks $$$ will proof him against that law. It wont. Though it might stretch it a bit
NOTE TO S
“Dear S, if you weren’t such a kind and open person, I’d keep my mouth shut, and simply chalk it it up to one more tragedy. But you’re obviously a born leader, and just what we need in Jamaica.
My concern was over the removal of forestry from your backyard (that she posted on Facebook). That is not good for wildlife and the environment. We need those wild pockets to remain. Wiping them out is what leads to pandemics, deforestation and species extinction.
So where should people plant? A lot more can grow in a tiny space through biointensive mini farming. Maybe Randy Allie knows about it. They are stationed in the Willits, CA, but have worked in the African Diaspora. We can see if there’s a way to contact them online.
I’m trying to design a way of building that includes vertical farming up the walls, and creeping food vines over the roof. But you can see how slow it’s going in SAB! A reasonable person would quit! Hope you won’t get mad like that lady with the blackie mango trees. Without beauty and wilderness, we will fail.”
S, an unusually civil Facebook poster, assumed I didn’t understand. Her lot was in a residential area. The wilderness in it was due to it remaining unsold for an unusually long time. Everywhere around her had no wilderness and was built on. She had to clear the land to build her house. And as “deferential” as she usually is, she was unusually forceful in her explanation.
“Option 2 presents a problem, in that lazy hunters will want to steal it.”
Norm, seems like you’re sticking too closely with BAU. There will not be BAU, for the means for it won’t exist. This is why Bill Gates wants ID vaccinate everybody and turn us into manageable zombie. OK, so the long term means for that aren’t there either, but short term harm can be done by this attempt.
But there will be no such thing as lazy hunters either, for the almost certain way of the future is for the large society to be tightly controlled. If we keep on course, “Bill Gates” will do incalculable harm before “he’s” brought down. And who then will do the controlling? The same people who are increasingly doing it now.: crime bosses, mafias, warlords, dons,militias. There will be no such thing as freedom to roam about and plunder. Every inch of land will be too tightly managed for that.
One way or another, there will be overwhelmingly tight and comprehensive control of communities. As the Corbett gentleman suggested, it can either happen in a structured but human way, or in a structured but draconian way.
Is it possible the world self organizes and sometimes only looks that way? Those with wealth are smart enough to go with the trend.
Dennis L.
In other words, what looks like it might be a conspiracy, could really be the product of self-organization. Oligarchs are going with the trends they are seeing.
It seems to me that that may very well be what is happening. The oligarchs can sense what outcome would be best, for their own individual empire. In fact, they all would like pretty much the same outcome. They could see that the world economy was doing poorly before COVID. They could also see that shutdowns under COVID had some benefits, like the return of law and order, instead of as many protests regarding low wages.
Since the system was headed for a wall no matter what, the lockdowns (while there is still food and fossil fuels supply) seem to be working well in the bigger picture. But there is nothing in the pipeline to replace the food and energy supply once they dry up. I would think this is why we have reset fantasies. Some way to manage the conundrum. Instead of the top down reset, small communities need to organize and manage themselves (and try telling them that!). But they don’t know how to grow food for themselves. They lack many essential skills–clothing, manufacturing, purifying water, and lots more. Managing and repairing buildings and roads could be among the more doable things, however. There somehow has to be an alliance between the self-help communities, counties and the better of the IC businesses…
The catch is that the buildings needed, in order to be sustainable as the system changes, are very different that the buildings currently in place. The big downtown office buildings are not needed, nor are malls. Many small homes, with essentially no outside energy services, are needed across the countryside. The inhabitants will need to live without heat or air conditioning. They will somehow need to figure out purified water supply and food supply. For security, these homes may need to be clustered together, perhaps with walls around them.
Agreed for the most part–and thanks for crystallizing the wall around the pods idea that was buried several layers down in my thinking. But since I don’t see everyone doing the same thing and living the same way, I hold out expectation that urban living–including urban efficiencies and production infrastructure–can maintain a modicum of (Industrial) civilization that outlying pods can’t do without.
“Artleads, it’s the ‘getting things done’ at the end of it that disperses *more* energy than if the intermediate structure hadn’t been created.”
We have 8B people who are used to having things done for them (through surplus energy). That surplus energy is gone and we’re living on the fumes.
The Corbett podcast points to the *choice* between having global elites control the energy means to keep us going, or the much harder task of using available diminished resources to govern ourselves. The things to “get done” seems to be to keep a living system going (for as many humans as possible, above a global tipping point of catastrophe) with reduced energy. As with keeping a large house warm with puny heating resources, where the open plan might work less well than subdividing the space into small enclosed unitser and heating those with the puny heating resources, enclosing human society into bordered small units that compete and cooperate in the right balance is a very very big thing to get done. :-).
The planned UBI, universal basic income, will be marketed with all sorts of nice-sounding phrases. In reality, it will be given to you in return for your life. Conditions include acceptance of vaccinations, digital wallet, social credit orders and total obedience. Refusal will see your land and assets confiscated and you will be herded into the nearest ‘strong city’ as punishment. If you do not agree to be their slave, you are excess to requirements, not profitable, and therefore eliminated.
I cling to the hope that Gail is right and their plan will not get very far.
Welcome to The Great Re–set folks.
I suspect (and hope) that they can’t quite pull it off. I’m also not sure that ALL of it is bad. A lot of the horror of it could concerns the HOW rather than the WHAT of the reset. The one-size-fits-all scenario might be something Gail would see as a problem. But you need and alternative order, discipline and comprehensiveness to the reset in some way. Marteson touched on it with the simple and cheap COVID remedies. Many of us need the UBI, but, say, US $700 combined with basic food and shelter should be enough.
Instead of the top down reset, small communities need to organize and manage themselves (and try telling them that!). But they don’t know how to grow food for themselves. They lack many essential skills–clothing, manufacturing, purifying water, and lots more. Managing and repairing buildings and roads could be among the more doable things, however. There somehow has to be an alliance between the self-help communities, counties and the better of the IC businesses…
Basic food and shelter, for very many, will be tricky to manage under any scenario. Adding $700 to this implies that there would be enough energy supplies that this $700 could be used for fuel to cook food, clothing and security.
But if it can’t work–and the amount could be much less in poor countrie; I was only thinking of my local world–there goes order.
In poor countries we already have a strong undercurrent of gunman, mafia, Don control. Without some order, that’s all we’ll have. Not a lovely thing to contemplate, especially for women.
There is a whole class of industrial materials–think something as simple as duct tape or particle board, paint that is a by products of the petroleum that HAS to be there unless 8B return to the HG life (which is impossible)–that can create orderly emergency shelter/food on a broad scale AND something to buy with money. People left on their own without some form of systematic governance are likely to go bonkers.
We do not have a single world power but a series of competing alliances. The USA, UK et al, Saudi Arabia and Israel form one such alliance. That is why the MSM in the UK never mentions Saudi’s atrocities against Yemen but has preferred to harp on about the atrocities of Syria and Russia’s actions in Syria – despite the fact that the US, etc., supported the uprising against Syria’s government in a vain attempt to coax Syria into the Western orbit. Russia, China and India would of course be unwilling to submit to any ‘worldwide’ order.
>>Russia, China and India would of course be unwilling to submit to any ‘worldwide’ order.
True, but China is a techno-fascist state already. Seems to me that China is the model that the Western elite will want to emulate.
“I have a hard time thinking that any kind of “one world power” scheme has any possibility of working.”
Long term, I agree, but I think one has to consider the extent to which “one world power” already exists, in the form of the CIA and “Five Eyes”, the UN, the World Bank and IMF, and the bigger families and names using those institutions as weapons behind the scenes… What nation on earth has actual sovereignty today? The “one-world power” is already the money power.
I have been thinking that these international groups would be harder to keep together as time goes on, and budgets get tighter. When looking for places to cut back, countries would stop funding these organizations. Globalization cannot continue at the current level, so something has to be cut back, it would seem. Libya, Syria and Venezuela cannot be big contributors to these international organizations, for example.
I agree that the interchangeability of currencies has made the situation something close to “one world power.” I wonder how long this will really last, if each country starts creating money out of nothing. None of the currencies will really be worth much, it would seem.
It seems as though their last gasp will be some form of digital currency, the way the Euro swept all the deficiencies of member states’ currencies under the rug held up by Germany… That’s why globalists are so eager for the Great Reset. They want one more round in the game.
As for funding international organizations, when you can print infinite money, who cares? There are many offers made every day which “cannot be refused”. Here’s an interesting tid-bit I just found out about: Guatemala, like Ukraine, was threatened with loss of foreign aid by Biden, in this case if they did not allow an unaccountable UN org to continue running their legal system. I would be surprised if even 1 person in 20,000 knows about this story outside of Guatemala. Why should Pelosi, Obama, and Biden be so interested in protecting Castro-ite guerrillas? Is that a US interest or a globalist interest? Now multiply this sort of activity by the hundreds or thousands of instances…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-guatemala-corruption-usa-idUSKCN0SJ0W720151025
https://impunityobserver.com/2019/10/14/bidens-sordid-hisory-foreign-prosecutors/
The fascinating thing is how money (which is at heart fictional) levers all of this skulduggery. This capacity for abstraction is what has set our species apart in its ability to both construct and destroy.
The more money is “worthless”/worth less, the more desperate people will be to get more of it! They don’t have an effective alternative in most cases.
Lidia,
You make a lot of good points. We clearly need some system that will allow our current economy to continue a while longer, even if debt is becoming badly overloaded. A digital currency, or something that can be printed in infinite quantity, would be ideal for this purpose. With such a currency, even worldwide umbrella organizations could be funded, if desired. The many failing pension plans, including government plans, could be kept operating a bit longer.
With all of this money printing, existing money would be worth less and less. The quantity of goods and services to be purchased would be very low. More and more buyers will be squeezed out of the purchasing chain. For example, many churches, restaurants, shopping malls, and office buildings will close their doors. Subsidized public transportation will operate less and less.
You are right about the fact that to the extent money is “worthless / worth less,” the more desperate people will be to obtain more of it.
Gail
your comment seems to contradict pretty much everything you have written in the past. Unless I’m missing something?
i don’t understand how any currency ‘produced in infinite quantity’ can be of the slightest use in a commercial environment where goods are available in decreasingly finite quantity.
With infinite money chasing finite goods, you end up paying $1m for a loaf of bread?
Norman, this has happened a number of times within living memory: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/122915/worst-hyperinflations-history.asp
It is what happens when winning becomes more important than the game.
Playing with symbols of wealth as the World descends the Seneca cliff seems as “winning” by walk-over with an empty grandstand.
Well, congratulations, look at you go at that big piece of delusion.
The smart asses most likely set up the deluded loonies to perform this stunt as they prepare Plan B.
https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/56376627.jpg
An aircraft carrier in the neighborhood might convince some to accept a given currency, may depend on who really controls the air craft carrier. Seems to me H. Clinton was in the room cheering when Kaddafi met his maker. Supposedly Kaddafi and Saddam wanted to trade oil in something other than dollars, didn’t work out very well. Wasn’t Venezuela trying the same thing? Iran wasn’t accepting dollars. Sort of a correlation but no evidence of causation.
It really makes no difference how much we print as long as those supplying goods accept the currency.
Perhaps a stretch, but if the US went back to making things, there would be less financial skim, the biggest skimmers might not take lightly to that. Any politician who favored such a trade deal could even be demonized.
Dennis L.
Dennis,
That is a good point,
As the holder of the reserve currency, the US has been able to import far more goods and services than it exports, year after year. This privilege cannot continue forever. The US really needs to be able to make things on its own, rather than just import more goods than it exports, year after year.
Anyone who has an interest in the “one world power” idea would be well advised to watch Alex Jones’s interview with Aaron Russo from 2006, the year prior to Aaron’s death from cancer. Below are ten of the juicier minutes, but the entire thing is about two hours long and fascinating, particularly now we are 14 years down the road into the dystopia Aaron insisted was being planned for us by the banking elite.
The proverbial “They” laughed and scoffed at Alex and Aaron back then, slapping them with the “conxxxx theorist” label, and told all right-thinking people to laugh and scoff too. Not laughing or scoffing quite so loudly now, are we?
https://youtu.be/oygBg6ETYIM
Arron Russo has talked to Nicholas Rockefeller. The goal of the Rockefeller Foundation is one world government with one currency. Each person would have an RFID chip implanted inside, with the chip connected to a data record. Government can control people by turning off or on the RFID chip and by distributing money through the account held associated with the RFID chip. If person does something that the government doesn’t want, the government will turn off the RFID chip, so the person cannot buy food or anything else.
Nicholas Rockefeller heard mention of 9/1/1 ahead of time. Done by American government to create endless war on terror. War on terror is a fraud.
Nicholas Rockefeller didn’t seem to care about anyone else. End goal is a chip to control the whole world society. Better than socialism or capitalism. Rockefeller Foundation has been behind women’s lib, because it would separate children from their mothers. The state would take on more of the role of family.
That sounds eerily like Sweden. Brain washed kids. Pay using RFID credit cards. Basically a cashless society.
An now, the herd is an official meme by the merits of the institutionalized sociopathy at FHM and other guvmint fake jobs programs.
That was a very good summation of the gist of Aaron’s words, Gail.
In his younger days he was a nightclub owner then an artist manager and a movie director. I wonder if Duncan ever met him back then.
He has a Wikiwand article that states:
In 2007, in an interview with Alex Jones, he denounces the CFR, supports conspiracy theories about the September 11, 2001 attacks, and criticizes the war on terrorism, as well as a “plan for global bankers’ domination”, (the Rockefellers, etc.).
He recounts a discussion held between Nicholas Rockefeller and himself, eleven months before the attacks of September 11, 2001, explaining, among other things, the remarks made by Nick Rockefeller: how “an event was going to occur […] and how from this event we (the United States) were going to invade Afghanistan, build pipelines to bring oil from the Caspian Sea, that we were going to invade Iraq to take control of oil in the Middle East and be able to establish ourselves there and integrate this region into a new world order and then we would deal with Chavez, Venezuela and Iran. I remember him telling me that we would see soldiers searching caves in search of those responsible, in Afghanistan, Pakistan and all those regions. There would then be a war on terrorism where there would be no real enemy. It would all be a hoax. It would be a way for the government to control the Americans ”.
Nick Rockefeller also told him that his plans for the future were to reduce the world’s population by half and replace paper money with subcutaneous chips where all the person’s personal information would be stored. All of this being a roundabout way of controlling what Nicholas Rockefeller referred to as “serfs”, “slaves”, when speaking of the world’s population.
He also evokes the emancipation of women as being a deception. The purpose of this movement would be nothing other than to double the number of taxpayers and job seekers, but also to reduce the family influence on each child, who will end up, through the limited presence of parents, by s’ [sic] rather to attach to the State, in an indirect way.
Nicolas Rockefeller has rather a low profile for such a prominent individual. There is a webpage, Nicholasrockefeller.org that indicates he is alive and kicking and active in the globalist milieu:
His securities practice includes litigation before the United States Supreme Court and a number of his transactions have been featured in leading periodicals. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the International Insitutute of Strategic Studies, the Advisory Board of RAND, the Pacific Council on International Policy, the Committee on Foreign Relations in Los Angeles, the Western Justice Center, and has served as a participant in the World Economic Forum and the Aspen Institute. He is a member of the Board of Visitors of the Law Schools of the University of Oregon and Pepperdine University and is active in the affairs of his alma mater, Yale University. He recently chaired a panel at the United Nations on E-Commerce and is a co-author of “Economic Strategy and National Security”.
Nicholas’ China practice includes transactions with China’s largest banks, energy companies, communications entities and real estate enterprises as well as with China’s principal cities and leading provinces. He was chosen as a board member of the Central China Construction and Development Commission and as a director of the Xiwai International School of Shanghai International University. He has appeared numerous times on CCTV and other China media.
Oh, I see. Chris indeed wanted BAU to go full bore over the Seneca cliff.
Ain’t that a plan? So that he, his family and his gullible buddies can pass through the bottleneck with their offspring and cute gardening projects.
Imagining the ‘oligarchy’ separated from the rest of mankind is simply delusional. They are as dependent on the bread and circuses as everybody else. Every ant colony require worker ants.
It’s coming your way folks. Get ready for it. Yeah, indeed, austerity is coming your way.
It’ll be fun watching the entitled princesses of IC surviving on potatoes, cabbage, and beans alone, cranking those pedals while glistering in sweat and “suffering”, or whatever austerity and mild physical discomfort gets labeled these days. And hating every second of it. Indeed, schadenfreude is the only true bliss.
https://memecentral.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/smile-i-love-you-meme.jpg
Perhaps he just didn’t want to go along with the Rockefeller Foundation view of the future.
And he would be able to dodge that bullet? I guess not.
It’s good to have a common enemy, its cozy and focuses our energies towards others. I’m a man of simple taste and in-group theraphy sessions makes me retch.
However, I sort of can take some sympathy with the brain washed gullible masses on this one. They bought it all, lock, stock and barrel, full bore into consumerist bonanza, rickety jank, chrome plated with solar panels and 80″ OLED panels in every line of sight.
And now they are apparently expendable. How convenient.
Yeah, I would pretty much score elitist theraphy sessions a few magnitudes higher in the scale of suck, than the psychosocially manhandled hoi-polloi just doing what they are being told on the telly.
>>I have a hard time thinking that any kind of “one world power” scheme has any possibility of working.
Couldn’t agree more, but I suspect that they are delusional and conceited enough to believe that they can make this, or a variation of it, work. If nothing else, they are speeding up collapse.
Not a surprise at all, the epidemic is only the first stage of the plan.
The first lockdowns in march were just a test. Now we are in a much more serious game.
What Martenson doesn’t talk about is the role of Russia and Putin who is the enemy of western elites. There is a secret war played by China too, and the reset will not happen by itself.
Also, people will protest and nationalism will rise which could threaten the plan.
Interesting times!
Yes, indeed!
Renewables coupled with very small reactors:
“The MMR Energy System can be used as a standalone power plant or as part of microgrids that include intermittent renewables such as solar or wind, or to provide process heat for co-located industrial applications or hydrogen production.”
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Micro-modular-reactors-proposed-for-Idaho-and-Illi
Something is better than nothing, maybe a stopgap until we get the moon project going – an attempt at a bit of humor, the moon part.
Dennis L.
It will take 30 years to get lunar PV up to the scale to focus on a reasonable small target on the Earth. In the short term low orbit 2000 km with batteries on the satellite and on the land receiving station. Go Elon (the batteries and super low cost launch).
Sorry, my error. I don’t see any point in solar lunar, satellites may or may not work, don’t have a clue.
The small nuclear reactors are proposed to both be easy to manufacture and carry a base load for renewables. Again, this could be thought of as a selling point and not related to reality. In life one has to sell a point to make it work and sometimes selling someone else’s point gains an ally.
Supposedly U of Ill at Champaign is looking into one which would be used to power a deactivated coal plant near the campus. What could go wrong?
Dennis L.
I am like the modular nuclear reactors. I want my town of 6000 to buy one.
Some concerns I have heard about small nuclear reactors:
1. Security seems likely to be a problem.
2. Uranium, like fossil fuels, is a limited resource. It is sort of possible to reprocess uranium, but the cost tends to be high. I am sure reprocessing uranium requires fossil fuels and international trade.
3. We still have a problem storing spent fuel from any kind of nuclear reactor.
4. post collapse, all active nuclear power stations and nuclear waste cooling ponds will blow up.
on 4, burn yes, blowup no
5. Instacollapse is delusion
6. The spent rods will be casked and dumped at sea.
>>on 4, burn yes, blowup no
When the cooling pipes got blocked at Chernobyl, I think it was a bit more serious than just burning.
>>5. Instacollapse is delusion
>>6. The spent rods will be casked and dumped at sea.
You seem to have a crystal ball.
Mine works, yours doesn’t, you just think it does.
https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/49750238.jpg
NASA is planning a 2024 Moon landing with the female/male astronauts. they are searching for water at the Moon’s south pole. only problem is the Moon’s terrain there is very steep, with a lot of deep craters possibly containing water ice. the lighting there is also tricky. they care because then they don’t have to take water along.
there’s some science objectives, but these could probably be answered in shadowed places nearer to the equator, where the terrain is more gentle and the lighting more uniform.
private companies, e.g., Tesla are pushing the polar targets. they may not be, but they could be using the government (NASA) to co-fund/leverage the project with the investor draw of water to support a permanent base. our boat may be sinking, but there remains little room at the gaming tables in the casino.
Chemistry nobel prize (2013) Michael Levitt says:
@MLevitt_NP2013
My keynote uninvited from https://biodesign-conference.com/index.php
“… too many calls by other speakers threatening to quit if you were there. They all complained about your COVID claims”.
Computational biology & biodesign are based on my work. Time to cancel them & me.
New Dark Age Cometh.
https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1317781548901363712
I haven’t seen much about Levitt’s COVID’s claims, other than that he seems to be in the anti-lockdown school of thought. This seems to be very unpopular, with a group of scientists. Perhaps they feel that they need to stick with the other scientists. What might economists know? Or others who look at the situation from outside?
Being right seldom brings glory, being wrong brings opprobrium.
Dennis L.
this:
https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1322957094929068033
the YPLL is relatively low.
we all know this already: covid related deaths are 90+% OLD elderly people on death’s doorstep.
YPLL is a good measure.
Dr Shi’s virus is a programming exercise. A MRNA vaccine is a programming exercise. Virologists are coders.
Yes, the DNA is the self-modifying code and data intertwined into a helix. 🧬
Now, try to debug a self-modifying program. It’s quite close to intractable.
No wonder Gates digs it. Coding for silicon boring compared to carbon.
The world is turning into Japan. Central Banks own everything.
Energy is what creates growth and value. That is what we are losing.
As per the latest ASPO.de graph and similar, while not growing there is still not insignificant blop of energy ahead of us, now the question remains, how and who will be allowed to use it.. so upto another ~15yrs of ~Japanization in some core countries is not unrealistic prediction, obviously with more surrounding instability and other issues..
it isn’t possible to use (significant) amounts of energy without pre-investment of energy.
yes, there are ‘significant’ amounts of energy-resources remaining unused ahead of us, but if we have to invest greater amounts of energy to get hold of them, than we extract from them, then those energy resources will remain unusable and unused.
It won’t be a matter of who is allowed to use it, though there will no doubt the conflict centred of delusion in that respect.
Some other channels (SkyNews) called it ~dystopian images~ but this one provides better pic quality. On the doomer-scene this situation of not to able to leave panicked metropolis has been often cited and mused about, now we can see very close analogue as it was still orderly..
So young people are not complying with the lockdown. And there seem to be a lot of cars leaving the city.
“For the first time in five months, Australia reports no local coronavirus cases.”
What if it was all just fear mongering?
Trump got infected (maybe). He’s doing just fine (maybe). The Trump administration has stopped worrying about the virus…well…they have to, since they have to get through this election.
Can the democratic governors do a lockdown on election Day?
The nationwide testing in Slovakia continues with its 2nd day. After testing approximately one half of the population of Slovakia, namely 2,5 mil. people, the percentage of the positive coronavirus cases is about 1 %, i.e. they have identified around 26.000 infected people using the antigen test.
Mr Pool
“In the end times 9 patients will come to your home and say that you are sick since you are not like them”.
You are right, it can be so. But are they people? Most likely not. They are predators eating each other.
The virus takes control of the human cell.
Is a virus infected human still a human?
I don’t know.
They even have Covid dreams…at least so they say.
What will be done with these 26,000?
10 days quarantine at home or somewhere else (hotel etc.).
MG, what is the plan for three weeks from now when the quarantines are done? Will the whole country be tested a second time? Or do they expect CV19 will have died off?
Everybody wants for the downward trend which will allow for easing the protective measures.
If we look at a chart of Slovakia cases, we find that its growth in cases (relative to population) is very much in line with the EU average.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/11/slovakia-eu-and-us-new-covid-cases-oct.-31.png
Deaths have jumped up more quickly than a person might have expected, perhaps giving rise to the concern.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/11/slovakia-eu-us-new-deaths-oct.-31.png
If I look at the average number of cases reported per day in Slovakia, there have been about 2,409 reported, presumably prior to all of this testing. Thus, 26,000 cases found is about equal to 10.8 days worth of expected reported cases. So the testing did pull forward the reported cases, and perhaps found some more cases that wouldn’t be found. Testing the second half of people will also find some cases that wouldn’t otherwise be found?
The big question now is, “How much difference will this really make?” We will find out in the future. It should make some difference, at least temporarily, a person would think. We need to try different approaches.
It seems to me that the government said that this testing for 2 weekends costs something like 1 day of the complete shutdown of the economy, i.e. 100 mil. EUR.
Due to the low number of the infected, it is probable, that the second testing during the next weekend will be carried out only in areas with higher percentage of the infected.
Everybody got a certificate and who has got this certificate with a negative result, is exempt from the curfew.
https://ipravda.sk/res/2020/10/27/thumbs/koronavirus-testovanie-orava-certifikat-covid-19-clanokW.jpg
The photos from the nationwide testing in Slovakia in my region:
https://mytrencin.sme.sk/g/171499/plosne-testovanie-v-trencianskom-kraji-na-covid-19-sobota?gref=strm_art-22523907&photo=p6626926
We will see how well this works. A person wonders whether the virus spreads through hallways of apartment buildings, for example. Or whether, even with quarantine, there is a lot of spreading of the illness among family members. It should be a great deal less bad than shutdown, for sure.
great charts.
what I see is that the US was way ahead in cases and deaths and now the EU is catching up.
the EU only delayed their deaths.
now EU cases and deaths are surging.
congrats to the EU.
Does this “Get Out of Curfew Free” certificate protect the holder against further infection?
By the way, I like the cute little COVID-chan viral particles on the bottom left. They add a nice kindergartenesque touch to the thing.
Guarantee the USA version of that document will be just a bit more high tech. It starts with databases and they are creating those now. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/programs/iis/about.html
“Oil traders tear up demand forecasts as Covid lockdowns return:
“Opec, the oil producer group, was already forecasting global oil demand would fall 10 per cent this year to average 90m b/d, but had predicted it would recover to almost 95m b/d over the northern hemisphere winter.
“That view is now under threat… “The market seems to have taken for granted that life during the third quarter was the new normal,” Rystad said. “The measures that we are seeing right now are a wake-up call.””
https://www.ft.com/content/75ff69c2-e83f-4c18-9451-598b6f17edd8
People are realizing that fourth quarter of 2020 may be worse.
“Exorcism: Increasingly frequent, including after US protests:
“In Portland, Oregon, Archbishop Alexander Sample led a procession of more than 200 people to a city park on Oct. 17, offered a prayer, then conducted a Latin exorcism rite intended to purge the community of evil.”
https://cruxnow.com/church-in-the-usa/2020/10/exorcism-increasingly-frequent-including-after-us-protests/
Perhaps the devil is causing today’s problems!
https://www.furorteutonicus.eu/2020/10/30/former-nuncio-vigano-sends-an-open-letter-to-president-trump/
This is a surprising letter from an archbishop. Gail, his take is yes.
Vigano is a ‘loose cannon’ who practically denounces P. Francis as a ‘heretic’. He is in hiding. P. Francis has made the ecclesial ‘conservative’ posture harder with his public ‘shockers’. Vigano has been careful not to ‘break’ with P. Francis in an ecclesial ‘traditionalist’ manner but his status within the RCC is extremely awkward.
His ‘letter’ comes across as a bit ‘bonkers’. USA has been behind ‘globalisation’ since WWII. Traditionalist RCC bishops often go off into ‘globalist’ theories that erode social and supernatural boundaries. Bp. Williamson of SSPX is the most infamous of the type. P. Francis is all for globalisaton and World Government.
RC traditionalists have simply never adapted to the post-WWII status quo – or to 1789 – or to the Reformation or Enlightenment. They remain ideologically ‘centred’ in the High Middle Ages. Which is fair enough, that is when their religion was at the top of the food chain. The RCC itself is more interested in adaptation and realism.
Vigano is very much on the ‘fringe’ now. P. Francis judges it prudent not to excommunicate or to defrock him for the time being – likely he does not want the press attention. Also it would put many other ‘conservatives’ into a very awkward position and might intensify their rupture with P. Francis. Other ‘conservative’ bishops might lay down the gauntlet over P. Francis.
Hm, thanks, interesting observation – conclusions, indeed if we are into degrowth, deglobalization, balkanization, .. megatrends then Vigano’s traditionalists of RCC are the (long term) future.. If they manage to at least partially block the P.Francis-Jesuit wing/faction in the mid term, good enough..
A lot of unrest around the world; I won’t document it all. We have a couple of nations with disputed elections, which may turn nasty, as we saw with Belarus and Kyrgyzstan:
“The governing Georgian Dream party is leading Georgia’s parliamentary election with a vote share of just over 50 percent, preliminary results showed on Saturday.
“The opposition, however, rejected those results and said it planned to protest.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/1/georgia-ruling-party-declares-victory
“After a pivotal poll marred by violence, opposition arrests and accusations of rigging, Tanzania’s electoral commission said late Friday that President John Magufuli had won a second five-year term — a move that led the opposition to call for peaceful protests on Saturday and urge the international community to reject the result.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/world/africa/tanzania-election-magufuli-wins.html
After much analysis, my definition of a politician:
“One who seeks re-election”
Harry, if you want to see real unrest, don’t bother looking at third world countries in Asia. Just sit tight until 4 November, and watch a far bigger third world country descend into chaos. And hope the “well regulated militia” has the guts to shoot to kill.
Calling for violence and murder in someone else’s country is despicable.
I have three children living in the US. All of them are now in fear of their lives because of the unchecked violence in Oregon, California, and Pennsylvania. All three are US citizens. Yes, I hope the loyal Americans stand firm when they need to stand up and be counted.
Against whom exactly those “loyal americans” will have to stand up ? Other loyal americans ?
each other
the american dream is turning into a nightmare of denial
groups are beginning to recognise that basic survival is at stake, but they are forced to deby this
their only certainty is that ‘something is wrong’—but they cannot focus on what it is. so the don tells them what it is—mexicans, blacks, socialists (back in the 50s there was a red under every bed)—the fault lies anywhere but in themselves
they are loyal to their collective greed basically, and will fight to defend it
Against whom?
VF, I assume Robert has decent respectable people like these folks in mind.
https://spacecoastdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Berkeley-Antifa-Protesters-Arrested-Mugshots-580-2.jpg
https://spacecoastdaily.com/2018/08/cal-professors-disturbed-after-police-post-mugshots-of-antifa-protesters-arrested-after-violent-rally/
Or these fine upstanding politically active citizens.
https://cdn-stream.httpid.com/c202/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Antifa-BLM-Communists-1024×580.jpg
Or these young great great great great grandchildren of former slaves who are helping themselves to reparations.
https://media.foxbusiness.com/BrightCove/854081161001/202006/2383/854081161001_6160933602001_6160938161001-vs.jpg
Robert please. I dont agree with the kids but they are kids and beautiful. They have fallen for a ideology that i find huge flaws with. I had my time hope to have some more. It is real unfortunate that the kids dont seem to be able to see the risks of their path but if that is their choice and if they have the majority that is the breaks. Its their future. Lets get back to working together. We are all neighbors. No one is coming to take us to the gulag just yet. Who are you going to shoot that beautiful school teacher down the street with the biden harris sticker on her prius? Please. get real. I hope this is a momentary lapse in what is usually good judgment on your part. No matter what happens in the presidential election I think we will keep the senate by about two seats. We have a decent supreme court. Lighten up Francis.
More conflict over elections, practically everywhere!
For a real Georgian Dream, try the talented girls of ‘Trio Mandili’.
“Trio Mandili” – interesting music.
“Ethiopia: Crossing the Rubicon of Hyperinflation in Ethiopian Economy.”
“Demonetization as a financial strategy according to economists could help to ease inflation at the rate of 30 percent in the economy.”
https://allafrica.com/stories/202010310109.html
“Years of hyperinflation in Venezuela have given rise to a barter economy in the South American nation. Cash is increasingly worthless. The COVID-19 pandemic has only further fueled this informal system of trade.”
Video:
https://newsus.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-01/Venezuela-Barter-helps-combat-cash-shortages-V30e1rreQU/index.html
I wonder to what extent we will be seeing currencies disconnect from each other?
“Faced with an increasingly hostile world, China is looking inward. At the heart of its latest Five-Year Plan, a blueprint for economic development unveiled on Oct. 29, is a Mao-era slogan that arguably represents the posture of a government feeling threatened by what it calls “hostile foreign forces” while also defiant—zili gengsheng, or “self-reliance.”
“For example, instead of depending on imported technology, China will go all-out to produce its own while looking to domestic consumption to drive growth.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-10-31/bloomberg-new-economy-self-reliance-is-china-s-endgame?srnd=new-economy-forum
The Middle Kingdom has practiced self reliance (自力更生) for millennia. It has always proved a good policy. I hope they indeed return to it. And just as they abandoned the adventurism of the Yongle Emperor, I hope they abandon the adventurism of the CCP.
Self reliance, I expect with at least a little push downward on other countries, so that they are not as much competing for resources. If China can be “the last man standing,” it will have far more resources at its disposal than otherwise.
What Bloomberg is trying to say is that CCP is continuing to open up the Chinese economy to the world at the same time as it aims to develop its own tech sector, its domestic consumer base and its ‘internal circulation’.
The latest FT piece on China has a more realistic analysis.
> China boosts foreign access to huge onshore capital markets
New rules making it easier for international investors to trade in China’s booming capital markets have come into force, adding momentum to Beijing’s sweeping liberalisation of its financial system.
The measures, which went into effect on Sunday, update the official schemes that govern foreign access to the country’s enormous capital markets.
They allow much greater access to China’s onshore futures markets, an important tool in hedging stock market positions as well as for speculating on price movements. Foreign investors will also be able to lend out their holdings of shares that trade in Shanghai and Shenzhen, allowing others to use them to take bearish positions.
The move is the latest step in the opening up of China’s vast but tightly-controlled financial markets, a process through which the country is forging closer ties with Wall Street despite rising geopolitical tensions with the US.
…. Chinese stocks hit a record high value of more than $10tn in October and foreigners own their biggest ever share of the country’s bond market. In September, Chinese treasuries were added to one of the world’s most important bond indices, paving the way for an estimated $140bn of inflows.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission said the new rules, which were first announced in September, would “expand the scope of investment” in the country.
…. The rules coincide with the conclusion of talks in Beijing over China’s 14th five-year plan last week, which emphasised a need for “self-sufficiency” in technology sectors dominated by the US. A feud between Beijing and Washington over trade and access to cutting-edge technologies has contrasted with Chinese moves to open its markets to foreign investors.
https://www.ft.com/content/a5392f07-9deb-4573-beb1-88a946f00df5
The CCP plans for more self-reliance in tech and for the development of the domestic market are a response to USA attempts to ‘knee cap’ the economic development of China. USA is spooked by the potential loss of its global hegemony.
It is not that China is ‘turning inward’ because of some ‘Maoist’ bent, let alone neo-feudal tendencies, but that CCP is adapting its economy in response to USA hostilities.
CCP is all about adaptation; its guiding maxim is ‘ideology from facts, not facts from ideology’, and its main goal is economic development, which it sees as the material basis of a successful society.
More from the FT.
> Washington looms large over drafting of China’s next five-year plan
Plenum calls for ‘self-reliance’ to counter US efforts to damage Chinese companies
For Chinese officials working on the country’s 14th five-year plan, the US looms large over the drafting process.
One senior Chinese government official advising on the five-year plan’s manufacturing strategies said that regardless of whether Donald Trump is re-elected on November 3 or defeated by Joe Biden, “it is certain that industrial decoupling between the US and China will continue into next year”.
“China is still lagging behind advanced economies in the mastery of key technologies and we are not going to catch up in the foreseeable future,” the official added. “We need to keep savings rates at a reasonable level so we can keep investing in R&D.”
On Thursday evening the Chinese Communist party concluded an important annual planning meeting with a communique that outlined its main goals for the next five-year plan, which will run from 2021 to 2025, as well as longer term development aims through 2035.
The summary document from the central committee’s annual plenum did not reveal specific growth or industrial targets, focusing instead on the party’s broader ambitions as President Xi Jinping prepares for an unprecedented third term in 2022.
As widely expected, the plenum emphasised the importance of “scientific and technological self-reliance” and a “strong domestic market” to counter efforts by the US to hamstring many of China’s leading technology companies.
“US sanctions on Chinese technology leaders were game-changing events for China’s leadership,” said Andrew Batson at Gavekal Research. “The moves showed that the US had enormous leverage over China due to its dominance of core semiconductor technologies, and that the US was willing to deploy that leverage for geopolitical goals.” ……
https://www.ft.com/content/205a600d-462f-47a6-a242-a606b949ce91
It is important to bear in mind that the CCP policy to focus on the development of its tech and to ‘upgrade’ its domestic economy dates back to 2015. The strategy is not a ‘reaction’ to USA hostilities, rather vice versa.
USA wants to make it harder for China to out-compete USA, which is fair enough. And China is adapting to the USA reaction by pushing more funds into the project, which is also fair enough.
That is the broad background context to where things stand at the moment. CCP is pushing ahead with its established ‘China 2025’ objectives. There is an unreality to the Bloomberg article.
> Made in China 2025
Made in China 2025 (Chinese: 中国制造2025; pinyin: Zhōngguó zhìzào èrlíng’èrwǔ)[1] (MIC 2025) is a national strategic plan to further develop the manufacturing sector of the People’s Republic of China, issued by Premier Li Keqiang and his cabinet in May 2015.[2] As part of the 13th and 14th five-year plans, China aims to move away from being merely the “world’s factory” producing cheap, low-tech goods facilitated by lower labour costs and supply chain advantages.
The initiative encourages production of high tech value products and services, like aerospace, semiconductors and biotech, to help achieve independence from foreign suppliers.[3][4][5][6][7] The plan focuses on high-tech fields, including: information technology; smart manufacturing; maritime engineering; advanced rail; electric vehicles; electrical equipment; new materials; biomedicine; agricultural machinery and equipment; pharmaceuticals; aerospace, semiconductor, IT and robotics manufacturing, many of which have been dominated by foreign companies.[8] It is in essence a blueprint to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse.[9] The goals of Made in China 2025 include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025.[10]
In 2018, the Chinese government committed to investing roughly US$300 billion to achieve this plan, [7] but other investments revealed in 2020, especially in the aftermath of the covid-19 pandemic, constitute at least an additional $1.4 trillion.[11]
After backlash in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere, the slogan of MIC 2025 has been deemphasized in Chinese government communications and official discourse.[12][13] However, the program remains in place and the government continues to invest heavily in identified technologies with the hopes of technological indigenization.[12]
…. The key objective of the Made in China 2025 program is, in a world which it views as increasingly dominated by U.S.-China competition, to identify key technologies, such as AI, 5G, aerospace, semiconductors, electric vehicles and biotech, indigenize those technologies with the help of national champions, secure market share domestically within China, and ultimately capture foreign markets globally.[19]
The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. described MIC 2025 as an “initiative to comprehensively upgrade Chinese industry”, which is directly inspired by Germany’s proposed Industry 4.0 strategy.[1] It is a comprehensive undertaking to move China’s manufacturing base higher up the value chain[20] and become a major manufacturing power in direct competition with the United States.[21][22]
…. In 2018, the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think tank, stated that MIC 2025 is a “real existential threat to U.S. technological leadership”.[30] The Li Keqiang government maintains that MIC 2025 aligns with the country’s World Trade Organization obligations.[31] On 15 June 2018, the Trump administration imposed higher tariffs on Chinese goods, escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S. The tariffs primarily apply to manufactured goods included in the Made In China 2025 plan, such as those integral to IT and robotics industries.[32]
….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025
Colombia became the latest emerging market to end a series of interest rate cuts, joining peers from Brazil to South Africa as it recovers from the pandemic…
“Many emerging markets that slashed interest rates after the pandemic hit are now pausing while they gauge the strength of the recovery… Colombia’s economy is set to contract 8.5% this year, according to the central bank, which would be the worst slump in more than a century.”
https://en.mercopress.com/2020/10/31/colombia-s-central-bank-pauses-interest-rate-cuts-as-it-gauges-recovery-strength
“Turkey is waging war against a “devil’s triangle” of interest rates, inflation and exchange rates, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday, a day after the lira hit a fresh low.”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/turkey-fighting-against-unholy-trinity-125529723.html
“Sri Lanka has tumbled from best to worst in Asia’s dollar bond market, underscoring how fast the pandemic can chill sentiment toward weaker emerging-market assets.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-01/sri-lanka-debt-tumbles-from-best-to-worst-in-asia-on-virus-pain
“According to Fitch, Laos owes around US$500 million in debt repayments for the remainder of this year, with a further US$1.1 billion required annually until 2024. Net external debt is projected to exceed 85 per cent of GDP in 2020…
“China’s willingness to finance megaprojects of questionable economic feasibility contributes to Laos’ precarious debt burden. The resulting debt dependency puts Laos and China in a difficult position.”
https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/10/31/laos-set-its-own-debt-trap/
“There is nothing particularly surprising about China aggressively offering loans to governments of African countries or of other emerging markets around the world…
“What is puzzling—perhaps—amid the demonstrably questionable public policy judgments and deleterious economic outcomes in the borrowing countries, is that leaders on the continent choose to sign on to carry such debt.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/harrybroadman/2020/10/31/africas-elite-share-the-blame-for-chinas-belt-road-debt-crisis/?sh=7a64d270c9e1
Why did the Indian princes accept the ‘help’ of the East India Company in the 18th century?
A lack of sophistication, and it served their short-term interests.
Beware Brits or Chinamen bearing gifts………
Then again, maybe China is just sharing the love and intent on universal growth and brotherhood?
The world seems to be full of mega projects with little chance of positive return. The plan seems always to be “extend and pretend.” EU has kept extending Greece’s debt, and increased the amount to cover interest payments, for example. Other countries do the same thing, for as long as possible.
Turkey is indeed waging war. A real war, with guns, bombs and bullets. Against Christians in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and (more slowly) Greece. If Turkey goes down in blood and fire, the world will be a better place.
They are acting true to form: ‘A state whose only policy is massacre’ , as Richard Burton observed in the 1870’s.
“In the past cycle, central banks have been constantly intervening in the market in order to counter the massive disinflationary pressure.
“It seems that the only option remaining from global policymakers is to print more.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4383522-central-banks-response-to-covidminus-19-crisis-just-print
“This year’s stimulus explosion from governments and central banks lifted stock markets, staunched economic bleeding caused by pandemic-linked shutdowns and fed hopes of an inflation pick-up in the developed world.
“Investors may be dismayed, therefore, by signs central banks are slowing the stimulus pace, just as the United States heads into elections without signing off a much-needed fiscal package and Europe returns to lockdowns that will throttle economic recovery and jobs.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-cenbank-liquidity-analysis/analysis-money-printing-slowdown-leaves-governments-to-take-up-stimulus-slack-idUKKBN27E2QA
“The great divergence: U.S. COVID-19 economy has delivered luxury houses for some, evictions for others.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-inequality-ins/the-great-divergence-u-s-covid-19-economy-has-delivered-luxury-houses-for-some-evictions-for-others-idUKKBN27G0H7
“Leaving New York: High earners in finance and tech explain why they left the ‘world’s greatest city’.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/31/why-high-earners-in-finance-and-tech-left-new-york-city.html
Same story everywhere, including China. Rich got richer; poor got poorer.
“Millions of Americans are sliding into financial distress because of the Covid-19 pandemic’s mismanagement—and the prolonged recession that now appears likely.
“Now that infections and deaths are spiking again, financial markets have turned nervous as investors brace for another round of economic pain. U.S. stocks just turned in their worst week since March, when the pandemic first began.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pedrodacosta/2020/10/31/us-economy-faces-second-wave-slump-as-coronavirus-infections-surge/?sh=523f6356239c
“The Wile E. Coyote stock market has now looked down. Nothing but air!
“The “good news” data from the U.S. economy is all stimulus related. Without stimulus, Q3 GDP would have fallen double digits.
“The economy has yet to face the oncoming eviction crisis in the rental markets and foreclosure tsunami in the commercial real estate market.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/10/31/the-wile-e-coyote-marketeconomy/?sh=139d51635fd3
The coyote obeys cartoon physics: you won’t fall unless you look down. The economy obeys MMT physics, which is just as illusory.
Prepare to splat.
Keep extending the time people don’t have to pay their rent.
“One post, 947 applicants: restaurant’s story reveals the depth of UK jobs crisis
“Desperate candidates for a minimum wage role in Manchester face dwindling savings and choosing between paying for food or bills.”
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/01/one-post-947-applicants-restaurants-story-reveals-the-depth-of-uk-jobs-crisis
“Some of the top names in Scottish hospitality have today launched a new ‘SOS Save Our Jobs’ campaign across the country by taking over around 50 giant digital billboards.”
https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/scotlands-hospitality-sector-launches-sos-19200027
“Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government prohibited overseas leisure travel from England as part of a partial lockdown of the country to curb a resurgence of the coronavirus, throwing airlines into a fresh crisis.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-31/airlines-suffer-blow-as-england-bans-non-work-overseas-travel
I am wondering if we are going to see more air accidents moving forwards, as increasingly desperate airlines may be tempted to cut corners for financial reasons. Hopefully I am wrong. D3G?!
By what authority? His action is prohibited by the Great Charter of 1215, the Act of Settlement of 1701, and the UN Declaration of Human Rights of 1948. It is high time Her Majesty sent this petty little tyrant to the Tower.
My impression is that there are a fairly large number of minimum wage jobs available in Georgia (unlike UK). The problem is that the pay is too low to cover very much.
Letter to the Western Patriot:
Truth is the measure of a society.
I emphasize truth every time I write about society, because not only is it a rarity in these chaotic times of information overload and partisan conflict, but because it is something sacred, inviolable, and important to me as a human being. Truth is something to be respected, above all, and pursued diligently. If human will and action is worth anything at all, it is to bring us closer toward the light and consequence of truth.
You all see what I see.
When confronted by the heavy air outside, it’s plain that the principle of truthfulness is not shared by all. Each day, we wake to encounter a media superstructure that disseminates hatred of us, we witness abject violence that goes unpunished, or the artefacts of our collective histories and cultures denigrated and reduced to the status of oppressive props. We are falsely cast as villains in support of an institutional oppression that- in actuality- we have shed blood, and lost family members, to end. Every measure of truth in today’s world is turned inward on itself by the superstructure, twisted and contorted until all meaning is lost, and shadow obscures authentic experience.
Current affairs are no longer observed and reported, they are interpreted, and because this interpretation has been introduced incrementally- through the forced narrowing of publicly acceptable discourse- it is tolerated, because society has grown accustomed to it. This, mind you, is not an adaptation by society, which infers a sense of mutual coexistence, but is instead akin to an organism that carries on its daily activities while a foreign entity bores into its flesh, because it must carry on- there is no other option, and no manner in which to combat the threat. The danger may be felt intuitively, or viscerally and painfully, but there is nothing the host can do but soldier on.
But society is more complex than a captured animal; when the parasite begins to bore in, society- as well as nations- are capable of fighting back.
The past year has made it quite clear the level of hatred, and the appetite for violence, that exists within the Institutional Left. This is not the Left of the past that sought reform. The Institutional Left instead sits and waits for the “inevitable decline” of the wrong demographic, asserting its false credentials for unifying and pragmatic policy while the districts it governs sit in flames, shutdown, division and misery. Violent criminals are processed and released immediately, the police having been made bureaucrats rather than peacekeepers. It encourages, in less-than-nuanced language, the disenfranchisement of millions, while playing-down the violence of its organised mobs. It curtails free speech and free-thinking, the right of which is inalienable, promised to the people, and enshrined in law. It sinks itself into previously credible institutions to subvert and demolish public trust. Every individual attribute, every leaning or tendency that does not conform to the prescribed narrative is placed under the spotlight and crushed. The dissenting citizen sees their employment terminated, their house foreclosed upon, their ability to provide for their family threatened. Under this regime, every inch of asymmetry and individuality is dissected and destroyed.
But even under the weight of all this, it is possible to push back.
The modern world and its conveniences have made the concepts of bravery and courage appear antiquated to many, imbued with an aged machismo that is too crude to appeal to the average person. In times past though, when the very survival of the individual, and of their family and loved ones, was entirely dependent upon the soldier’s strength of will, their grit in the face of significant odds, and their ability to hold against the enemy, these concepts were not only essential, but the thin line separating victory from defeat.
Today- in this world, and in this reality, it takes real courage to stand for freedom. Courage is more necessary than ever.
The power of the superstructure that has been permitted to develop over the last forty years in an environment of political complacency, is almost absolute. Until recently, its supremacy seemed assured; its collaborators certain to take office. The freedom to speak in defence of one’s beliefs and culture was being rapidly disassembled, with this process being celebrated most of all by the wealthy and influential, justified by that sheltered group’s utopian fantasies, along with their need for control over the public space.
But then something happened- first in United Kingdom, and then in the United States.
Despite the overwhelming odds faced by the electorates- against a partisan and seditious legacy media, and the coercive actions of the megacorporations of Silicon Valley- the people were able to break through the deception of the superstructure. This was not supposed to happen, and was not by design, but was instead one of the purest expressions of freedom in human history. Prior to these revolutionary acts, the absoluteness of the superstructure’s dominance of public discussion was poised to obliterate the notion of identity itself, to be replaced with a uniform submission to a distant global bureaucracy, uncaring of the issues faced by its constituents. But for the first time in forty years, the line held.
This resistance from the people still loyal to country, still fervent in their devotion to freedom, to liberty and the rule of law, to impartial justice and economic opportunity, defied the expectations and shook the foundations of the Institutional Left. The arrogance, and surety in their inevitable victory, once so deeply-embedded in the psychology of the Left, was greatly dented.
That which is unkillable does not bleed.
It is the high duty of every patriot, and every man or woman loving of freedom and liberty, to show this same courage in the face of the adversary’s onslaught. It is no hyperbole to describe the fight ahead of us as one of survival, and for the primacy of Truth over the darkness of obfuscation and deceit.
Vote, and add your voice to the chorus of individuals that stand with you.
Hold the line, and begin to walk forward.
PQQ and osteoarthritis
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6456530/
https://youtu.be/3A6-2VBNNfo
It’s about mice, but, anyway, it’s interesting, when we consider the fact that PQQ is contained in the breastmilk.
Hooray, Chris Martenson has finally spoken that Covid 19 is a bunch of BS. This is the same Chris Martenson who was getting all lathered up when Covid 19 started and hyping the situation. Now he’s admitting that Covid 19 is just an excuse to bring about “The Great Reset”. It’s a damn good article Too bad it took Chris nearly 9 months to figure it out.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/we-are-pawns-in-a-bigger-game-than-we-realize/
Wow!
Chris has been following the story more closely than I have so he can fill in a long list of cheap treatments that work. He started from a very different point of view originally. He is willing to put the story quite strongly.
Chris, of course, was the one who moderated the panel discussion with Art Berman, Richard Heinberg, and me a couple of weeks ago. Richard Heinberg, in the interview, gave the view of how terrible it was that Trump hadn’t done more about locking down the economy for COVID. I made it clear that I wasn’t of that view, but I don’t remember now exactly what I said.
Well, Chris Martenson talks about hydroxychoroquin, he really believes that it works but this is pure nonsense.
In France the main advocate of hydroxychloroquin is Pr Raoult who is probably the greatest mountebank ever. Everything he has said since the beginning of the epidemic has been proven wrong, and it was really, really easy to debunk even with a little knowledge. The problem is that when you oppose lies against other lies, the reason and science are the first victims of such a false debate.
Well you are entitled to your opinion but HCQ has a proven track record. Here in the US several doctors were censored after confirming their positive HCQ treatment wrt Covid 19. CV19 has been politicized with humans in the cross hairs. This is our future, politicians, health officials and the News Media lying and conditioning the general public with a hidden agenda. Because CV19 has been one giant lie and an excuse to takedown the global economy and reset it with the globalists grand plans.
I can’t help you if you’ve fallen for their tricks.
Rodster, did you hear about Charybde and Scylla?
Both are tricks and I don’t want to fall.
Chris will see his little profitable cult following evaporate as World enters Scenario 3. Now let that sink in.
Yeah, Chris, either we make it through together or we all perish. That ‘bottleneck’/rapture schtick is getting a bit long in the tooth. The only thing that would pass through the eye of the storm is the Phoenix of mankind, the Machine.
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/05/d0/33/05d03378da2901fec7464a37e6e0a255.jpg
Unenlightened business interests is rather obvious.
Nothing in this article is contrary to what he has been saying all year.
Sweden towards 50 SEK/liter petrol.
Which is about 21 USD/gallon.
How about that US citizens? Any affordability issues? No? 🤔
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&nv=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.se&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://teknikensvarld.se/nyheter/miljo-och-teknik/trafikverket-varnar-branslepris-pa-50-krliter-kan-kravas/&usg=ALkJrhhnscQA2HOtHtU9Hjo0cwHmT0wXTQ
“ In order for Sweden in its current form to achieve the 2030 climate goals, the Swedish Transport Administration sees a necessary traffic reduction that can be achieved through, among other things, sharply raising the price of fuel. More than SEK 50 per liter is mentioned in a new report.”
Yep, folks. The era of cheap FF’s is over. At least in Sweden. 😓
Sweden collects its taxes with its high tax on fuel. I suppose it feels that fuel used by consumers doesn’t generate much GDP, so that perhaps there is a way that more fuel can be saved for trucks and ships. But it doesn’t really work that way. Europe is headed downhill.
“Better and better!”
—Greta
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/P0B6AxeVNY8/maxresdefault.jpg
Tim,
She is irritating, but maybe right. This old earth needs a break, it is our home, our spaceship, the only one we will ever have, time to adjust.
Dennis L.
Yup, old dudes letting the hammer fall onto the anvil impresses me.
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/06/13/article-2003121-0C8C1CF000000578-984_634x461.jpg
Keep on cranking granddad. 💪
Entitled IC princesses queuing up with their SUV’s outside the food lines, not so much. 🤮
It’s vulgar, pathetic and obscene.
She’s perfectly entitled to irritate us.
Imagine just for a moment how it would feel to be young in this epoch. Really sad.
Swedes being irritating, is that our gimmick or what? 🤣
https://youtu.be/L26RZdmQ2nE
The bigger they are, the harder they fall.
Tank you, Tim, for he best photo of Greta ever. It is now on my desktop. I disagree with almost everything she says, but in my book courage transcends politics, especially in a world where knaves rule and cowards serve.
Cheers, Robert.
As an old fossil, destined to end up as fuel for the biosphere sooner rather than later, I also disagree with most of what Greta says, but I remember clearly that as a teenager I was saying a lot of the same things she says.
I had my vegan period and my anti-nuclear power era, and to this day I remain revolted by the mass automobile, mass tourism and mass air travel culture.
But I’m more hypocritical than Greta is. I believe such privileges should be restricted to elite members of society such as you, me and Gail, and should absolutely not be available to the riffraff. 🙂
In The US there are three rises in deaths. They are by area. First northeast, then southwest, now north center.
In the UK there is now a rise a “second wave” does anyone now where I can find data by county for the UK?
Latest update from Dr John re Vit D.
https://youtu.be/HxtddpoPMKo
Lockdown Sceptics often has good data Ed 😁
https://lockdownsceptics.org/
I can’t believe we are locking down again, it’s insane. Dr Lacy Hunt has described the Bank of England as crossing the Rubicon, with its direct monetising of government debt, Banana republic here we come, I think it’s time to buy bitcoin…..
Thanks! The evidence for using Vitamin D to prevent or even treat COVID seems to be quite high.
The Guardian sometimes has data per county for the UK, under a ‘COVID in your area’ heading, very detailed.
UK prime minister just announced that a countrywide lockdown is to be reintroduced from Thursday for one month and that the furlough scheme (pays 80% of salary) which was due to expire tonight has been extended.
the elderly Brits are saved!
for now.
the UK economy is saved!
for now.
and just think, when the third wave comes, and the fourth etc, this can be repeated again and again.
The nationwide testing in Slovakia with an antigen test is currently going on. I have just passed the test with a negative result after being tickled with a cotton swab on my nasopharynx via my right nostril.
As the testing material for today in the testing place in our village, which is the local municipal office, has been spent, the testing continues with the 2nd day on Sunday.
Re: a new ‘lock down’ in UK
My, my.
It seems that TP will leave most work places open, along with schools and universities and public transport. Non-essential shops are singled out for closure.
My guess is that this ‘lock down’ simply will not work because it is not a serious effort. We are told to expect 85,000 fatalities over the next three months.
TP has handled this atrociously. CCP virtually eliminated c 19 months ago. TP did not even try, they left the borders open and allowed it to spread throughout the country. It is still spread throughout the country, and now comes the price.
It is not like the TP ‘strategy’ has even protected the economy. UK is down 20+% in Q3 year on year, while China is back up. The TP ‘strategy’ has been a complete disaster.
TP did not want to shut the borders for a few weeks because they did not want to lose a bit of money for the economy, and now they have trashed it – and left untold dead.
‘If PM calls a new lockdown we’re b**gered’: Boris faces Tory revolt over new lockdown and will address the nation at 5pm after MPs, hospitality chiefs and scientists condemn the plan despite predictions of 4,000 deaths a day in December
Boris Johnson’s plan to impose a nationwide lockdown from next week is under siege from furious Tory MPs, anxious hospitality bosses and sceptical scientists. Government sources confirmed last night that blanket restrictions will be brought in after bleak Sage modelling projected the virus is on track to kill 85,000 this winter, peaking at 4,000 daily deaths. The Prime Minister, who has repeatedly slapped down Labour’s demands for a ‘circuit-breaker’ and pressed ahead with a tiered strategy of local measures, is now expected to u-turn in an announcement on Monday.
…. The brutal squeeze could see non-essential shops in England shut for the rest of the month, with an ‘absolutely devastating’ impact on the already crippled hospitality sector. However, unlike the March lockdown schools and universities are expected to remain open.
…. But Mr Johnson is understood to have been spooked by dire projections forecasting up to 4,000 daily deaths by late December.
One of the models seen by the BBC said fatalities would peak in late December before falling in January.
Sage’s professor John Edmunds also confirmed that the situation in the country is worse than the reasonable worst-case scenario.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today: ‘We’ve been significantly above that reasonable worst-case scenario for some time actually.’
Prof Edmunds said it was ‘possible’ that there would be 85,000 coronavirus deaths this winter – more than there were in the first wave.
‘It is really unthinkable now, unfortunately, that we don’t count our deaths in tens of thousands from this wave.’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8900129/Boris-Johnson-facing-Tory-revolt-new-lockdown-Furious-MPs-lead-backlash.html
Re: Aus and NZ
Compare and contrast.
Australia and NZ are now opening up their borders to each other because they have virtually eliminated c 19.
UK and other countries could now be in the same position – if they had even tried to eliminate it.
Pack your bags! New Zealand ‘to open to Australians within WEEKS’ as Queensland and WA finally relax their borders – here’s everything you need to know about changes to coronavirus travel restrictions
…. Government sources told The West Australian two-way travel is expected by Christmas at the latest.
Federal Tourism Minister Simon Birmingham on Thursday said quarantine-free travel between the two countries would be recognition of how well both countries handled COVID-19.
While Europe and North America suffer through another horror wave of the virus with tens of thousands dead, Australia and New Zealand have escaped relatively unscathed.
…. At present, New Zealanders can come to Australia without needing to quarantine thanks to the country’s lack of coronavirus cases, but must quarantine when going back.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8897385/New-Zealand-open-Australians-weeks-states-finally-open-coronavirus-closures.html
NZ is quite a place, in my opinion.
OZ? Not so much (my brother had a business there).
But they must be careful– just look at The States, and the ignorance and delusion.
congrats to Aus and NZ.
they took away many civil liberties and crushed their own economies, and all just to prevent thousands of elderly citizens from dying a few years sooner than they will now die.
of course, they will have to continue with an endless series of future lockdowns, because the virus is here to stay, and apparently immunity lasts for mere months like the common cold.
good luck to them.
Have you been to NZ?
I’ve traveled on the South Island for weeks without encountering any State enforcement.
Seems like you are engaging in creative fiction?
If there was no enforcement than the narrative about the effectiveness of their lockdown is BS. Or perhaps they are so isolated anyway… I Know two people who have had it now. Its not a joke. Neither is bringing your economy to a standstill. Neither is forced vaccination. When they release the next one, the bad one, forced vaccination wont be a issue. The people who choose vaccination will be alive. Everyone else wont. No enforcement necessary.
have you been to NZ in the past 6 months?
no, of course not, because they won’t let you in.
and internally, they have established harsh crackdowns on basic civil liberties, involving daily work and public gatherings.
by the way, my last paragraph is an admission that you were more correct than me in recent months: the virus is here to stay, and there will be no helpful herd immunity.
isn’t that what you think?
I’ve traveled on the South Island for weeks without encountering any State enforcement.
Would that be during the current pandemic? Or back when you were filming Lord of the Rings?
Most current UK cases are tracible to summer holidays in Spain. They could not miss their summer hols for even one year – and now comes the price. 4000 dead a day. TP has been completely inept.
Mutant Covid strain from Spanish farm workers ‘now accounts for most UK cases’
A coronavirus mutation that originated in Spanish farm workers has spread rapidly through Europe and now accounts for most UK cases, a new study suggests. The variant, called 20A.EU1, is known to have spread from farm workers to local populations in Spain in June and July. People returning from holidays in Spain over the summer are believed to have played a key role in spreading the strain across Europe. The study found that in Wales and Scotland the variant accounted for around 80% of cases in mid-September, whereas frequencies in England were around 50% at that time.
Dr Emma Hodcroft, an evolutionary geneticist at the University of Basel and lead author of the study, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘We know there was a super-spreading event among agricultural workers in Spain, that then the virus was able to jump into the local population and start moving more generally around Spain. ‘This happened in kind of June and July, right when travel was picking up again in Europe, and of course Spain’s a wonderful holiday destination and many people headed there.
‘What we think happened is that rising of cases in Spain combined with that increase in holiday travel allowed the virus to move to many different countries across Europe and, when it got there, it was able to spread quite successfully.’ Dr Hodcroft said the movement of people allowed the variant to spread, rather than any suggestion the strain was particularly powerful or dangerous. ‘That’s definitely what we think,’ she said, adding there were failures in the travel system which enabled it to spread.
https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/30/covid-strain-from-spanish-farm-workers-now-accounts-for-most-uk-cases-13505716/
when Aus and NZ get new waves of cases, it will be interesting to see where the cases are “tracable to”.
Yes, “when,” not “if.”
There are a lot of people who believe that the epidemic can be stopped. It really cannot, except temporarily on a few small islands (such as Taiwan) and in places with draconian governments, such as China.
Once this virus was let out, it, plus all of its mutations, the virus started spreading around the world. Fauci has visions of stopping it, but I really don’t think it can be done. Shutdowns simply collapse the rest of the economy.
The reason the world was vulnerable to this virus is because energy consumption per capita was too low. We were trying to stretch energy consumption with increased complexity, but increased complexity leads to huge wage disparity. The poor cannot afford adequate diets. The poor become especially vulnerable. The elderly also become vulnerable.
Strangely enough, certain others become vulnerable, as well. Individuals that live in cold climates but have dark skin color tend not to make enough vitamin D with available sunlight. This seems to make them more vulnerable to serve cases.
Our health care system has rescued may people from death from diabetes, cancer, and other serious disease. These people seem to be disproportionately at risk for COVID as well.
Taiwan, a “small island”? We are a fairly large island, thank you very much! (Wikipedia’s “List of islands by area” puts it at no. 39.) More to the point, the population is almost 24 million (and too densely packed along the coastal plains for social distancing to be effective), with what used to be robust travel connections. What saved us was early quarantining, masks, and contact tracing (made possible by a national health system that had already been adapted for use in a possible pandemic). The USA couldn’t have done all of these things, but there’s really no excuse for it to be the worst country in the world in terms of numbers (by either count).
Yes, marginalizing Taiwan sucks.
It is a major core country in IC. A tech hub with the semiconductor mfg Crown Jewels in its back pocket.
Taiwanese people always leave a good impression on me.
FSCK WHO, CCP, UN and let’s all hail the undisputed ruler and exterminator of the virus.
Yes, repeat after me:
ALL HAIL TAIWAN.
https://cdn1.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768×768/public/images/methode/2016/11/02/2097d1d0-a013-11e6-b05c-0413422fb257_1280x720.JPG
If you have the stupidity to disagree with me, well, then, you’d be the imbecile.
Based on my own health care issues, it feels as though the medical system has finally stopped trying to keep old people alive. A “simple” operation is prescribed. You are given pre-tests that begin to look repetitive. The specialist for the procedure doesn’t follow up. Every call is forwarded to some place else like a game…
Is this the John Edmunds who said last March that the only way to stop covid was “herd immunity”? And now he has done a complete about face and is demanding yet another crippling lockdown. Why does Boris even give these people the time of day?
I suppose that Boris has the cover of saying that he ‘followed the best science’?
Xabier, indeed he does. And if those scientists are invested in, or in the pay of, big pharma? Why, the answer is to lockdown until there is a vaccine. And then make the vaccine compulsory, so the scientists get their payoff even if the vaccine doesn’t work. As so often, follow the money.
The ‘herd’ is as much delusion as the vaccine.
Get used to the new reality. LTG scenario 3.
Otherwise a spiffier version will kicking your entitled IC princess rear ends within a couple of years.
How about the transmissibility of measles and with lethality and dormancy that of HIV? The slow burning super-contagious ripper.
“Gain of function”, rite?
https://www-nationalgeographic-com.cdn.ampproject.org/i/s/www.nationalgeographic.com/content/dam/science/2020/05/05/fauci/fauci_mm9349_20200502_0055.adapt.1190.1.jpg
😉
Putin does not fsck around with “protesters” outside the french embassy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWJA3ftjprA
https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/140506160556-putin-yelling-horizontal-large-gallery.jpg
Crushed like ants.
🤣
Off to the gulag!
More like a silly PR stunt if you ask me.
The Russian bear sacrificed a few gullible pawns.
🙂
No wonder European liberal politicians hate him.
I looks as if Lukashenko (Putin) managed to crush the protests in Belarus as well.
Follow up on Harry McGibbs article regarding Airlines…Shocking stats on break even point load factor..
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasquith/2020/03/31/analysis-how-much-money-do-empty-flights-really-cost-airlines/?sh=313179415854
David Angotti, an Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) and data-statistician has compiled an
analysis with Florida Panhandle about airline profitability statistics in the U.S.
The report illustrates that the load factors on flights needed to break even range between 72.5% and 78.9% depending on the airline. With ghost flights and undersold planes departing constantly, it should not come as a surprise that many airlines outside the U.S. that make the majority of their revenue from international flights have temporarily shut down.
……With 75% of the seats sold, only half of the airlines represented break even in the U.S., demonstrating just how competitively priced the market has become. This further demonstrates that even operating flights at 50% capacity leads to a substantial economic loss for all airlines.
Judging from what I see, this is a CRISIS of monumental proportions that will fundamental transform the structure of the Industry. It will exist….because wealthy elite travelers won’t disappear…but be much streamlined, efficient (meaning more automation, low paying employment of contract workers, and regulated to provide an acceptable return on investment.
You cannot operate an airline profitably at 50% of capacity. This seems to be true for a whole lot of other things too, such as commuter rail, restaurants, office buildings, and churches. In fact, guidelines are often for far less than 50% of capacity.
“Thousands of Muslims in countries around the world have held protests to vent their fury at France over its perceived animosity towards Islam.
“Anti-French rallies erupted after Friday prayers in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Lebanon and other countries. Protesters called for a boycott of French products and condemned President Emmanuel Macron.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-54751920
A church in Vienna was vandalized by Islamists.
Macron didn’t understand that you can’t criticize Islam.
Or…he understands and seeks to provoke a conflict between Christians and muslims?
Divide and rule: Import gullible MENA people, let them be brainwashed by his best friends in the mosques and then watch it unfold. Christians vs Muslims. When the dust settles, then hate on the Jews. After that, the Buddhists and Hindus. The usual BS.
Yawn.
As if the macaroniman would care about anything other than in his own self-interest. Not a remote possibility. After all, he is a banker by trade. It’s how that wheel of delusion spins.
A major war would stimulate the economy?
A major war adds lots of employment and gives an excuse to borrow money. If there isn’t much/any local damage from the war, it seems to lead to a net gain for the economy.
Besides these benefits, wars help leaders consolidate power. The view is that the country needs to fight against a common enemy, rather than focus its efforts on overturning the ineffective government.
Employment?
A major war or just another proxy war (perhaps elevated to a bit higher tier countries this time (ala Iran, Turkey, ..)? As you can’t have direct conflict between major (super) powers these times anymore, e.g. naval strike groups could be eliminated in seconds by hypersonic missiles, and then the answer is either to eat the loss and go home or answer with the ultimate escalation..
As “higher tier” get higher tech thats no longer a option. Personally i think boots on the ground in your examples is not a real good idea. In the absence of a local “democratic freedom fighting” forces on the ground where top tier countries special forces can laser designate tough targets with astounding force multiplier what is left is precision bombardment. Victory will not be insured without substantial increases in destructiveness of weapons employed. How is this a jobs creator? Fundamentally we can deal with our situation in two ways. Both have their problems. Consume less or consume more. I choose consume less. We could start a transformation of consuming less that keeps our humanity. CV19 lockdowns is consume less but our humanity is sacrificed IMO. War squanders energy. When there was energy to be acquired through it made sense. Now it doesnt but the model remains. The choice can be evaluated cognitively but intuitively we all know we can not use force to acquire indefinitely. Consuming less is our only path that has the outcome for our species to evolve and start toward the potential that god gave us. https://en.farsnews.ir/newstext.aspx?nn=13990603000309
I doubt any kinetic weapon would hit modern western MIC gear beyond line of sight.
Populated areas, yes. But what is the point of destroying cities already on the ropes? Perhaps giving your ‘enemy’ a helping hand for the inevitable to take place faster?
If things would go down in the South China Sea, the first thing to happen is that the PLA radars would go bonkers, likely also being zapped by “technomagic” Maxwellian wielding EM wizardry.
And that’s all she wrote.
“And that’s all she wrote.” For 90% of our manufactured goods. I suppose cold turkey is as good as anything. And we definitely would consume less. Count me in.
Why ruin the machine shop floors of China?
The PLA gear would be savaged while the container ships enters and leaves the harbors of China.
My suspicion is that the “war” would be surreal.
Precision guided munitions making short work of PLA gear with the container ships safely passes in and out awed by the spectacle.
The CCP isn’t a homogenous entity. It is a mishmash of various interests with #1 priority of earning the dole. If the PLA needs to be sacrificed, so be it.
Boots on the ground in China? Sorry there are limits. Nor will the Japan model hold IMO. Not to mention… Hiroshima Nagasaki were unspeakable. I pray never again.
Why invade China?
Just blow their MIC gear to smithereens.
The people will do the dirty work.
Imagine the light poles and traffic lights at Tiamnmen decorated with the CCP bandit gang.
That would have been a sight to behold.
Another article wondering if the Eurozone is headed for a financial crisis:
“”A health crisis triggered a recession. Now it’s triggering an economic calamity. As health authorities scramble to prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed once again, finance ministers and central bankers are wondering where they will find the money to keep unemployment from soaring and prevent the wholesale destruction of small and medium-sized business.
“And what if an economic crisis transforms into a financial crisis? That scenario is no longer unfathomable…”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-the-second-pandemic-wave-will-thrust-europe-back-into-economic-crisis/
“Another weekend of violent anti-lockdown protests in Europe:
“Clashes in Italy and Spain as Belgium becomes the latest to lock down and restrictions tighten across continent.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8898657/Anti-lockdown-protesters-throw-bricks-Barcelona-police-clash-Spains-new-Covid-19-rules.html
There seem to be two aspects to the protests in Spain:
1/ Those who maintain that the whole COVID thing is a ‘fraud’, known as ‘negacionistas’; and 2/ Those who against restrictions on socialising at night – the new curfew.
I last went to Burgos -a fascinating historic city, renowned for the beauty of its women and wonderful architecture – long ago, but the protests seem to be in the working class/immigrant district, judging by the videos.
The curfew will of course have an impact on the employment of these lower class service workers, as well as their weekend pleasures.
My eccentric cousin in Catalonia breaks the curfew every day when he walks his dogs on the deserted beach at 4am ( the curfew is until 6) and the police don’t stop him.
A police officer told him that they had no hope of controlling things if disobedience grew. ‘Disobedience’ in Spain attracts very heavy fines.
Heading for national lock-down again here in England: wonderful, clean air at last! One should try to see the positive aspects, which are admittedly very few and far between…..
Dog walking at 4am on the beach. Your cousin is blessed. Thanks for the post!
He is indeed, and the nicest of my relations; a poet stuck in the family swimming pool business, of all things…….
Shooting mud for pools. Most excellent! That will keep you fit. May I inquire what your pump is?
Xabier, in Italy there may be a third category, I was reading:
“Mafia stokes violent anti-lockdown protests in Italy: The mob’s drugs trade was hit hard by lockdown restrictions, but economic chaos presents opportunities.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/mafia-italy-violent-anti-lockdown-protests/
A person would think that people would figure out that the changes enacted to date are already creating an economic crisis. Any more shutdowns only makes the situation worse.
Only if a “economic crisis” is your major concern.
Can you say predicament?
We at OFW say predicament because we want a solution but politicians do not need a solution they need a distraction. The best distraction WAR. I expect war.
“The Fed could face more pressure to act: ‘They don’t have the luxury of time anymore.’”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/30/the-fed-could-face-more-pressure-to-act-they-dont-have-the-luxury-of-time-anymore.html
“Corporate debt in the U.S. entered 2020 at all-time highs relative to GDP. When accounting for the incremental debt issued in 2020 and netting out restructurings, that ratio seems likely to increase by another 15% this year.
“Effective debt-service ratios remain at levels comparable to 2001 — and above those of 2009 — when default rates on senior loans hit 8%.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-30/these-are-the-charts-that-scare-wall-street
“Charting America’s Debt: $27 Trillion and Counting.”
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/americas-debt-27-trillion-and-counting/
So the point of no return 100% to gdp was reached in 2013. USA GDP calculated on expenditure method. Stimulus checks basically do not effect dept to GDP ratio as the money is spent and counts towards GDP. Loans that are spent count toward GDP. Any mortgage created for a house counts toward GDP. Whats keeping the debt in balance? More debt of course. Because of this I think the idea of debt to GDP is misleading. It is a idea that supports ever larger debt with no consequences. It is a idea that negates the Idea that debt must be paid at sometime and the books balanced. THat doesnt sit right with me but I am no economist.
if govs/CBs can keep rates near zero (and they have no choice), then debt could easily double or triple, especially if all of the major govs/CBs expand their debt more or less equally.
the major currencies could remain in the same rough balance, and the game can continue.
US debt $50 trillion or $75 trillion or $100 trillion is doable with near zero rates.
we might see debt to GDP of 500% in most of the G20 before it falls apart.
5 to 10 years of this is very possible.
+++
China is going to want more for their manufactured goods if that happens. $100 a sheet for OSB? Things do slow down as supply chains dont break but fundamentally change. Real things need parts and maintenance. Molasses gets thick in the cold. Money supply hot economy thick and cold. Interesting times.
Misanthrop> In scenario of currently discussed reformed-adjusted world order the USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, Yen (today’s top reserves) will have to make place for the Chinese and in at least lower double digits, say at least ~15-30% share of the global pie as hinted by IMF/WB. That will curb western consumption for sure somewhat. And in case of disorderly global brake- down most of the trade flow stops anyway.
>>5 to 10 years of this is very possible.
The reason we have very high debt levels globally is because the economic system does not work any more. Millions unemployed and starving and the known-on consequences. If we last that long it is going to be a very rough ride. Plus black swan events are always unexpected.
“Misanthrop> In scenario of currently discussed reformed-adjusted world order the USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, Yen (today’s top reserves) will have to make place for the Chinese and in at least lower double digits, say at least ~15-30% share of the global pie as hinted by IMF/WB. That will curb western consumption for sure somewhat. And in case of disorderly global brake- down most of the trade flow stops anyway.”
At some point, IF the possibility for sustaining a self regulating system for distributing resources still is possible the wage disparity between China and USA must be addressed. You can not have a world economy connected at the hip and have 30x wage disparity. I think there is a lot of value in a self regulating system. That however means we must accept natural limits. As we move toward a balancing it means less for the USA. Now guess what abandoning all manufacturing not such a good idea in a self regulating system. People have no problem getting by with less. They do however have basic needs. Having abandoned self regulating systems and giving away our means of production what is left is printing currency to provide basic needs. This creates even greater distortions and even greater movement away from a self regulating system do much that the resemblance to a self regulating system become so tenuous as to become non existent. (run on) A greater share of the pie for the Chinese means their wages go up. That means the goods they manufacture price goes up. If the means of trade was under a self regulating system this would not be a problem. The bubbles created by money creation put the cost of housing food and basic medical care out of the reach of the USA working class. They simply can not afford to live without Chinese slave labor goods now. Printing and distributing $ to make up the difference is like fixing a junkie with another fix. This mess will not be easily untangled. Even if it was demanded it would take time and i dont see we have the time. When you speak of a “greater share of the pie” what are you referring to? Energy? Standard of living? Perhaps you are correct China can have more and the USA can have less VIA this system which does not accept limits. I am personally beginning to believe it cant hold together for a decade, Nor am i confident in any of the solutions. The current path of reset via Shi’s program and subsequent MRNA species programming (if true) seems somewhat draconian to me even considering the dire circumstances. What is really needed is for our species to accept limits and value both our unique qualities and the great mother, the planet. Technological solutions whether they are financial or biological move us in the exact opposite direction. Thats my inclination. Others seem to embrace technological solutions even depend on them.
The debts are just warming up..
If you have the funds & attitude, now is time to bet on negative interest rates spike in leveraged way. The only problem is that the “small fish” institution (City/NY) providing these (and many other) speculative-derivative trades might go under in the meanwhile from the volatile markets (and or forced reforms) by then.. so not easy cashing out, otherwise it seems as easy ~5x gain say before 2023-25. There are likely more professional approaches how to do it with way lower risk exposure and even higher profit, but that’s usually not readily open for us mere mortals.
And obviously this is just silly picking of pennies in front of steam roller for the mid 2020s, relatively speaking, as the last decade was the best time for making easy money for several generations, for example “anybody” (not everybody) could have done ~200x on TSLA and many thousands multiplication on BitCoin, etc. Disclaimer: unfortunately not my case, lol.
+ + + +
I cant sling code and program well enough to play the markets.
Without more money coming through wages and benefit programs in the US, the Fed seems to be the only source of quickly available funds. This may push the Fed to expand its programs when it next meets, Nov. 4-5.
The Feds injections create bubbles. I think even they are scared now. The stimulus creates less bubbles in asset classes. The fed doesnt really want to push markets up now. They know there is a lot of air below.
I agree that the Fed is probably scared now.
but life can go on, even when we are scared.
(scared = Halloween theme)
“With No Cuts Left to Make, Big Oil Sits and Waits for a Recovery:
“The largest global producers have slashed costs all they can… After months of low oil and gas prices driven by weak demand, the world’s largest international oil companies have largely exhausted their financial defenses, leaving little room to maneuver if they’re dealt further blows.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-31/with-no-cuts-left-to-make-big-oil-sits-and-waits-for-a-recovery
Waiting for recovery on a downward spiral doesn’t work well.
“… leaving little room to maneuver if they’re dealt further blows.”
oil in the low $30s will not help.
WTI $35.72
Brent $37.46
(though in a disconnect, natural gas is near a two year high $3.39, but who knows if that price is profitable.)
“The airline industry is not capable of slashing costs sufficiently in order to neutralize severe cash burn, to avoid bankruptcies and preserve jobs in 2021, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) latest analysis has found.”
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/iata-airlines-powerless-to-cut-costs-deep-enough-to-save-jobs/
“Franco-Dutch airline group, Air France-KLM (AF.PA) has reported a €1.05bn ($1.2bn, £945m) quarterly operating loss and warned of worse to come as amid tougher COVID-19 travel restrictions.”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/aviation-airline-industry-klm-air-france-coronavirus-lockdowns-economy-121728176.html
And ironically, the brand new bigger Berlin Airport opened yesterday after 9 years delay. 9 years too late, at least.
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/brandenburg-new-berlin-airport-opens/index.html
And what about that new airport built in Peru to service all that tourism to Machu Picchu?
Jobs programs. Tearing them down is additional jobs.
Recycle the materials into rail.
How is rail transport better than airline transport? Rail needs windows that open, at a minimum. Certainly no high speed rail. Cheap rail that can be used for transporting goods.
Yup, its a good start with freight rail. Of course once the tracks is being planned, prepare for HST. Nationwide HST rail is a technology platform.
Calculating the “cost” of rail is similar to caluclating the “cost” of the US and EU road network. Nobody talks about the obscenely expensvie and crumbling roads and airports.
Yes, I want to see the cost of building those highways and compare it with the same HST track. The passenger throughput with 300-400km/h rail must be insane in comparison.
The FF lobby whataboutism is silly at this point, give me a break. The consumerist bonanza will end. And that means the end of autos for the masses and cheap domestic flights.
😉
A guess,
Auto on continents and shorter miles cheaper/cheapest? It would be more variable in cost. Anyone wish to get into a metal tube with several hundred of their closest friends from all over the world?
Rail is probably already pretty cheap in US for goods, Buffet has been spending great amounts of money to modernize his rail system over the past ten years, he cut bureaucracy and purchased outright the BNSF/ two separated railroads combined in to one, BN purchased first. It is probable there aren’t many places to improve capital wise as BRK is sitting on $100B+.
I really don’t have a clue, thoughts, no conclusions.
The point about just in time manufacturing may be major, simply put without passenger traffic it might not work at all, too expensive, too irregular. It worked while it lasted. Frankly, it seems unlikely air traffic will ever pickup, we as humans adapted to specific locals, we don’t seem to be able to adapt well to moving all over the world in large numbers. Working capital is gone in many industries, that is mostly after tax money, very hard to restore it.
So another challenge, how to keep the moon virus free, sometimes a bit of humor helps.
Dennis L.
the moon is exposed to massive radiation, so I suspect the virus would have no chance there.
so, good news?
of course, humans have no chance there also.
Domestic HST service with cargo cars for intercontinental deliveries of components and spares.
Intercontinental transport by air and ships.
And it is booming.
https://www.supplychaindigital.com/logistics/ups-exponential-growth-global-freight-transportation
“Our performance highlights the agility of our global integrated network amid the ongoing challenges of the pandemic. Our results were fueled by continued strong outbound demand from Asia and growth from small and medium-sized businesses,” said Carol Tomé, UPS chief executive officer, in a statement. ”
I guess those former passenger airliners is being repurposed.
Better margins in shipping parsecs than fat blokes on a silly 2-week vacation, huh?
Hopefully this chap spent big there:
“Peru has opened the Inca ruins of Machu Picchu for a single Japanese tourist who had waited almost seven months to visit the world heritage site.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-latin-america-54518628
Hold you horses, in scenario of more pronounced separation of first, second, and lower tier countries (thrown under the bus), such airport hub will be used in Germany for some time into the future, obviously the passenger throughput capacity would not be reached, however, various modernized subsystem and facilities will be extending the lifespan of global/regional air travel anyway..
I hope you’ll be right, I really hope. The full capacity shall never be reached, That’s what I meant.
In England, they are just starting out on their 9-year (approx.), £100B+ transport white elephant that is the HS2 rail link.
I suspect it won’t happen.
Airlines are part of the “glue” that keep the world economy together. Without air transport, big international companies are much less possible. Just in time manufacturing doesn’t work either.