2020: The Year Things Started Going Badly Wrong

How today’s energy problem is different from peak oil

Many people believe that the economy will start going badly wrong when we “run out of oil.” The problem we have today is indeed an energy problem, but it is a different energy problem. Let me explain it with an escalator analogy.

Figure 1. Holborn Tube Station Escalator. Photo by renaissancechambara, CC BY 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

The economy is like a down escalator that citizens of the world are trying to walk upward on. At first the downward motion of the escalator is almost imperceptible, but gradually it gets to be greater and greater. Eventually the downward motion becomes almost unbearable. Many citizens long to sit down and take a rest.

In fact, a break, like the pandemic, almost comes as a relief. There is suddenly a chance to take it easy; not drive to work; not visit relatives; not keep up appearances before friends. Government officials may not be unhappy either. There may have been demonstrations by groups asking for higher wages. Telling people to stay at home provides a convenient way to end these demonstrations and restore order.

But then, restarting doesn’t work. There are too many broken pieces of the economy. Too many bankrupt companies; too many unemployed people; too much debt that cannot be repaid. And, a virus that really doesn’t quite go away, leaving people worried and unwilling to attempt to resume normal activities.

Some might describe the energy story as a “diminishing returns” story, but it’s really broader than this. It’s a story of services that we expect to continue, but which cannot continue without much more energy investment. It is also a story of the loss of “economies of scale” that at one time helped propel the economy forward.

In this post, I will explain some of the issues I see affecting the economy today. They tend to push the economy down, like a down escalator. They also make economic growth more difficult.

[1] Many resources take an increasing amount of effort to obtain or extract, because we use the easiest to obtain first. Many people would call this a diminishing returns problem.

Let’s look at a few examples:

(a) Water. When there were just a relatively few humans on the earth, drinking water from a nearby stream was a reasonable approach. This is the approach used by animals; humans could use it as well. As the number of humans rose, we found we needed additional approaches to gather enough potable water: First shallow wells were dug. Then we found that we needed to dig deeper wells. We found that lake water could be used, but we needed to filter it and treat it first. In some places, now, we find that desalination is needed. In fact, after desalination, we need to put the correct minerals back into it and pump it to the destination where it is required.

All of these approaches can indeed be employed. In theory, we would never run out of water. The problem is that as we move up the chain of treatments, an increasing amount of energy of some kind needs to be used. At first, humans could use some of their spare time (and energy) to dig wells. As more advanced approaches were chosen, the need for supplemental energy besides human energy became greater. Each of us individually cannot produce the water we need; instead, we must directly, or indirectly, pay for this water. The fact that we have to pay for this water with part of our wages reduces the portion of our wages available for other goods.

(b) Metals. Whenever some group decides to mine a metal ore, the ore that is taken first tends to be easy to access ore of high quality, close to where it needs to be used. As the best mines get depleted, producers use lower-grade ores, transported over longer distances. The shift toward less optimal mines requires more energy. Some of this additional energy could be human energy, but some of the energy would be supplied by fossil fuels, operating machinery in order to supplement human labor. Supplemental energy needs become greater and greater as mines become increasingly depleted. As technology advances, energy needs become greater, because some of the high-tech devices require materials that can only be formed at very high temperatures.

(c) Wild Animals Including Fish. When pre-humans moved out of Africa, they killed off the largest game animals on every continent that they moved to. It was still possible to hunt wild game in these areas, but the animals were smaller. The return on the human labor invested was smaller. Now, most of the meat we eat is produced on farms. The same pattern exists in fishing. Most of the fish the world eats today is produced on fish farms. We now need entire industries to provide food that early humans could obtain themselves. These farms directly and indirectly consume fossil fuel energy. In fact, more energy is used as more animals/fish are produced.

(d) Fossil Fuels. We keep hearing about the possibility of “running out” of oil, but this is not really the issue with oil. In fact, it is not the issue with coal or natural gas, either. The issue is one of diminishing returns. There is (and always will be) what looks like plenty left. The problem is that the process of extraction consumes increasing amounts of resources as deeper, more complex oil or gas wells need to be drilled and as coal mines farther away from users of the coal are developed. Many people have jumped to the conclusion that this means that the price that buyers of fossil fuel will pay will rise. This isn’t really true. It means that the cost of production will rise, leading to lower profitability. The lower profitability is likely to be spread in many ways: lower taxes paid, cutbacks in wages and pension plans, and perhaps a sale to a new owner, at a lower price. Eventually, low energy prices will lead to production stopping. Without adequate fossil fuels, the whole economic system will be disrupted, and the result will be severe recession or depression. There are also likely to be many job losses.

In (a) through (d) above, we are seeing an increasing share of the output of the economy being used in inefficient ways: in creating deeper water wells and desalination plants; in drilling oil wells in more difficult locations; in extracting metal ores that are mostly waste products. The extent of this inefficiency tends to increase over time. This is what leads to the effect of an escalator descending faster and faster, just as we humans are trying to walk up it.

Humans work for wages, but they find that when they buy a box of corn flakes, very little of the price actually goes to the farmer growing the corn. Instead, all of the intermediate parts of the system are becoming overly large. The buyer cannot afford the end products, and the producer feels cheated by the low wholesale prices he is being paid. The system as a whole is pushed toward collapse.

[2] Increasing complexity can help maintain economic growth, but it too reaches diminishing returns.

Complexity takes many forms, including more hierarchical organization, more specialization, longer supply chains, and development of new technology. Complexity can indeed help maintain economic growth. For example, if water supply is intermittent, a country may choose to build a dam to control the flow of water and produce electricity. Complexity tends to reach diminishing returns, as noted by Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies. For example, economies build dams in the best locations first, and only later build them at less advantageous sites. These are a few other examples:

(a) Education. Teaching everyone to read and write has significant benefits because it allows the use of books and other written materials to disseminate information and knowledge. Teaching a few people advanced subjects has significant benefits as well. But after a certain point, the need for additional people to study a subject such as art history is low. A few people can teach the subject but doing more research on the subject probably won’t increase world GDP very much.

When we look at data from about 1970, we find that people with advanced education earned much higher incomes than those without advanced degrees. But as we add an increasing large share of people with these advanced degrees, jobs that really need these degrees are not as plentiful as the new graduates. Quite a few people with advanced degrees end up with low-paying jobs. The “return on investment” for higher education drops increasingly lower. Some students are not able to repay the debt that they took out in order to pay for their education.

(b) Medicines and Vaccines. Over the years, medicines and vaccines have been developed to treat many common illnesses and diseases. After a while, the easy-to-find medicines for the common unwanted conditions (such as diabetes, high blood pressure and inflammation) have already been found. There are medicines for rare diseases that haven’t been found, but these will never have very large total sales, discouraging investment. There are also conditions that are common in very poor countries. While expensive drugs could be developed for these conditions, it is likely that few people could afford these drugs, so this, too, becomes less attractive.

If research is to continue, it is important to keep expanding work on expensive new drugs, even if it means completely ignoring old inexpensive drugs that might work equally well. A cynical person might think that this is the reason why vitamin D and ivermectin are generally being ignored in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. Without an expanding group of high-priced new drugs, it is hard to attract capital and young workers to the field.

(c) Automobile Efficiency. In the US, the big fuel efficiency change that took place was that which took place between 1975 and 1983, when a changeover was made to smaller, lighter vehicles, similar to ones that were already in use in Japan and Europe.

Figure 2. Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy, Horsepower, and Weight Since Model Year 1975, in a chart produced by the US Environmental Protection Agency. Source.

The increase in fuel efficiency between 2008 and 2019 (an 11 year period) was only 22%, compared to the 60% increase in fuel efficiency between 1975 and 1983 (an 8 year period). This is another example of diminishing returns to investment in complexity.

[3] Today’s citizens have never been told that many of the services we take for granted today, such as suppression of forest fires, are really services provided by fossil fuels.

In fact, the amount of energy required to provide these services rises each year. We expect these services to continue indefinitely, but we should be aware that they cannot continue very long, unless the energy available to the economy as a whole is rising very rapidly.

(a) Suppression of Forest Fires. Forest fires are part of nature. Many trees require fire for their seeds to germinate. Human neighbors of forests don’t like forest fires; they often encourage local authorities to put out any forest fire that starts. Such suppression allows an increasing amount of dry bush to build up. As a result, future fires spread more easily and grow larger.

At the same time, humans increasingly build homes in forested areas because of the pleasant scenery. As population expands and as fires spread more easily, forest fire suppression takes an increasing amount of resources, including fossil fuels to power helicopters used in the battles. If fossil fuels are not available, this type of service would need to stop. Trying to keep forest fires suppressed, assuming fossil fuels are available for this purpose, will take higher taxes, year after year. This is part of what makes it seem like we are trying to move our economy upward on a down escalator.

(b) Suppression of Illnesses. Illnesses are part of the cycle of nature; they disproportionately take out the old and the weak. Of course, we humans don’t really like this; the old and weak are our relatives and close friends. In fact, some of us may be old and weak.

In the last 100 years, researchers (using fossil fuels) have developed a large number of antibiotics, antivirals and vaccines to try to suppress illnesses. We find that microbes quickly mutate in new ways, defeating our attempts at suppression of illnesses. Thus, we have ever-more antibiotic resistant bacteria. The cost of today’s US healthcare system is very high, exceeding what many poor people can afford to pay. Introducing new vaccines results in an additional cost.

Closing down the system to try to stop a virus adds a huge new cost, which is disproportionately borne by the poor people of the world. If we throw more money/fossil fuels at the medical system, perhaps it can be made to work a little longer. No one tells us that disease suppression is a service of fossil fuels; if we have an increasing quantity of fossil fuels per capita, perhaps we can increase disease suppression services.

(c) Suppression of Weeds and Unwanted Insects. Researchers keep developing new chemical treatments (based on fossil fuels) to suppress weeds and unwanted insects. Unfortunately, the weeds and unwanted insects keep mutating in a way that makes the chemicals less effective. The easy solutions were found first; finding solutions that really work and don’t harm humans seems to be elusive. The early solutions were relatively cheap, but later ones have become increasingly expensive. This problem acts, in many ways, like diminishing returns.

(d) Recycling (and Indirectly, Return Transport of Empty Shipping Containers from Around the World). When oil prices are high, recycling of used items for their content makes sense, economically. When oil prices are low, recycling often requires a subsidy. This subsidy indirectly goes to pay for fossil fuels used to facilitate the recycling. Often this goes to pay for shipment to a country that will do the recycling.

When oil prices were high (prior to 2014), part of the revenue from recycling could be used to transport mixed waste products to China and India for recycling. With low oil prices, China and India have stopped accepting most recycling. Instead, it is necessary to find actual “goods” for the return voyage of a shipping container or, alternatively, pay to have the container sent back empty. Europe now seems to have a difficult time filling shipping containers for the return voyage to Asia. Because of this, the cost of obtaining shipping containers to ship goods to Europe seems to be escalating. This higher cost acts much like diminishing returns with respect to the transport of goods to Europe from Asia. This is yet another part of what is acting like a down escalator for the world economy.

[4] Another, ever higher cost is pollution control. This higher cost also exerts a downward effect on the world economy, because it acts like another intermediate cost.

As we burn increasing amounts of fossil fuels, increasing amounts of particulate matter need to be captured and disposed of. Capturing this material is only part of the problem; some of the waste material may be radioactive or may include mercury. Once the material is captured, it needs to be “locked up” in some way, so it doesn’t pollute the water and air. Whatever approach is used requires energy products of various kinds. In fact, the more fossil fuels that are burned, the bigger the waste disposal problem tends to be.

Burning more fossil fuels also leads to more CO2. Unfortunately, we don’t have suitable alternatives. Nuclear is probably as good as any, and it has serious safety issues. In my opinion, the view that intermittent wind and solar are a suitable replacement for fossil fuels represents wishful thinking. Wind and solar, because of their intermittency, can only partially replace the coal or natural gas burned to generate electricity. They cannot be relied upon for 24/7/365 generation. The unsubsidized cost of producing intermittent wind and solar energy needs to be compared to the price of coal and natural gas, not to wholesale electricity prices. There are a lot of apples to oranges comparisons being made.

[5] Among other things, the growth of the economy depends on “economies of scale” as the number of participants in the economy gradually grows. The response to COVID-19 has been extremely detrimental to economies of scale.

The economies of many countries changed dramatically, with the initial spread of COVID-19. Unfortunately, we cannot expect these changes to be completely reversed anytime soon. Part of the reason is the new virus mutation from the UK that is now of concern. Another reason is that, even with the vaccine, no one really knows how long immunity will last. Until the virus is clearly gone, vestiges of the cutbacks are likely to remain in place.

In general, businesses do well financially as the number of buyers of the goods and services they provide rises. This happens because overhead costs, such as mortgage payments, can be spread over more buyers. The expertise of the business owners can also be used more widely.

One huge problem is the recent cutback in tourism, affecting almost every country in the world. This cutback affects both businesses directly related to tourism and businesses indirectly related to tourism, such as restaurants and hotels.

Another huge problem is social distancing rules that lead to office buildings and restaurants being used less intensively. Businesses find that they tend to have fewer customers, rather than more. Related businesses, such as taxis and dry cleaners, find that they also have fewer customers. Nursing homes and other care homes for the aged are seeing lower occupancy rates because no one wants to be locked up for months on end without being able to see other members of their family.

[6] With all of the difficulties listed in Items [1] though [5], debt based financing tends to work less and less well. Huge debt defaults can be expected to adversely affect banks, insurance companies and pension plans.

Many businesses are already near default on debt. These businesses cannot make a profit with a much reduced number of customers. If no change is possible, somehow this will need to flow through the system. Defaulting debt is likely to lead to failing banks and pension plans. In fact, governments that depend on taxes may also fail.

The shutdowns taken by economies earlier this year were very detrimental, both to businesses and to workers. A major solution to date has been to add more governmental debt to try to bail out citizens and businesses. This additional debt makes it even more difficult to maintain promised debt payments. This is yet another force making it difficult for economies to move up the growth escalator.

[7] The situation we are headed for looks much like the collapses of early civilizations.

With diminishing returns everywhere, and inadequate sources of very inexpensive energy to keep the system going, major parts of the world economic system appear headed for collapse. There doesn’t seem to be any way to keep the world economy growing rapidly enough to offset the down escalator effect.

Citizens have not been aware of how “close to the edge” we have been. Low energy prices have been deceptive, but this is what we should expect with collapse. (See, for example, Revelation 18: 11-13, telling about the lack of demand for goods of all kinds when ancient Babylon collapsed.) Low prices tend to keep fossil fuels in the ground. They also tend to discourage high-priced alternatives. Unfortunately, all the wishful thinking of the World Economic Forum and others advocating a Green New Deal does not change the reality of the situation.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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2,805 Responses to 2020: The Year Things Started Going Badly Wrong

  1. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Maybe Jerome Powell himself should bid on behalf of the Oil Companies
    Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
    The controversy over drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge has been ongoing since 1977
    The Trump administration has held the first sale for rights to drill for oil in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge – but it drew no interest from major companies.

    An Alaskan state agency emerged as the primary bidder at the auction, which has been heavily criticised by environmental groups.

    The sale raised less than $15m (£11m) – far less than the government had hoped.

    The tepid interest comes amid big changes in the energy industry.

    Major companies, including oil giant Exxon, Shell and BP, have said they are focusing their spending on renewable energy, amid a huge slump in oil prices, in part triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.

    The wildlife at risk from drilling plan in Arctic refuge

    Adam Kolton, executive director of the Alaska Wilderness League, said the sale was an “epic failure” for the Trump administration and the Alaska Republicans, who had backed the move as a way to create jobs and reduce American dependence on foreign oil.

    “After years of promising a revenue and jobs bonanza they ended up throwing a party for themselves, with the state being one of the only bidders,” he said in a statement.

    “We have long known that the American people don’t want drilling in the Arctic Refuge, the [Alaska native] Gwich’in people don’t want it. BBC News

    TPTB knew this wouldn’t fly and just did it to soften up when Big Oil really goes to drill there on the cheap when the masses are angry and demand their BAU Gas for their SUVs and Pickups.
    We demand our FREEDOM from extremists!

    • The oil price is too low and demand too low to make investment in the Arctic Refuge make sense.

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        The Federal Reserve will make cents, I mean sense, of it in the end..
        We shall see, said the Zen Master, we shall see…
        P.S. Handing out Billions of $$$ to the airlines doesn’t make much sense unless you have an endgame goal….
        Airlines Won’t Make It, New Information Suggests It’s On Purpose, Airline Passenger Traffic Down 67%

        Looks like the buyer of last resort

    • Tim Groves says:

      Gail, I’m sure you’re going to like this song.

      —Kate McLeod

      I think I’ll go up to Alaska, I think I’ll be on that train tonight
      Heard that there’s work there, heard that there’s six months of daylight
      Heard that the train stops in Seattle, where you can get your feet back on the ground
      I think I’ll go up to Alaska where the heat of the summer’s comin’ down

      Woke up this mornin’ with some heavy troubles on my brain
      Gotta hold your head up when every one in town knows your name
      But I’ve got some money in my back pocket from some steady job that I been holdin’ down
      I think I’ll go up to Alaska where the heat of the summer’s comin’ down

      Can’t take my brother, he don’t like the north country at all
      Can’t take my sister, if there’s no mirrors on the walls
      Can’t take a book to read “cause I’m only thinkin’ of the land where I am bound
      I think I’ll go up to Alaska where the heat of the summer’s comin’ down

      I’ve got a suitcase made of alligator skin
      Hope that it makes it through whatever situation I get in
      Boots made of leather, my coat’s for the weather, and you won’t find me hangin’ ’round
      I think I’ll go up to Alaska where the heat of the summer’s comin’ down
      I think I’ll go up to Alaska where the heat of the summer’s comin’ down

  2. Yoshua says:

    Strong dollar = Commodity producers are hurt.
    Weak dollar = Industrial producers are hurt.

    The World = Harry give us a break!

  3. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Three times over the past 20 years, the West has been caught out by seemingly shock events that should, in fact, have been widely anticipated. There was 9/11, the financial crisis and now Covid, ordeals that shook us to our core…

    “Each time, we have been exposed as spoilt, emotional and weak – utterly unprepared, psychologically and practically, to cope with such seemingly low-probability, high-impact events.

    “When these sorts of “tail risks”, as statisticians call them, do materialise, we are immediately traumatised: panic sets in as our certainties and assumptions are shattered, and our entire way of life, our freedoms, our prosperity, our health, our self-satisfied sense of superiority are exposed as staggeringly fragile.”


    • Stop says:

      As if those events, and the response to them, including the media manipulating the reaction of the masses, weren’t manufactured.
      Harry, wake up and realize these columnists won’t tell you the truth about anything, neither analyse reality under sane eyes, but they’re just blind opinion retard writers. In most cases, they genuinely aghast, confused and lost, but we also know intel agencies have a love relationship with the media and work with it in mutualism.

      The goal is to lie, “shook our core” is their motto. This is all intentional, it’s on purpose – the events, their reactions, the policies.

      It’s Elite-led degrowth, and it requires beating you while gaslighting.

      • Azure Kingfisher says:

        Agreed. We can consider the following excerpts as desired outcomes for our overlords:

        “…ordeals that shook us [masses] to our core.”

        “…we [masses] have been exposed as spoilt, emotional and weak – utterly unprepared, psychologically and practically, to cope with such seemingly low-probability, high-impact events.”

        “…we [masses] are immediately traumatised: panic sets in as our certainties and assumptions are shattered, and our entire way of life, our freedoms, our prosperity, our health, our self-satisfied sense of superiority are exposed as staggeringly fragile.”

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          @Stop, it is a just an opinion piece, published as “comment”, so explicitly one man’s perspective rather than an attempt to nail down objective truths.

          The mainstream press is certainly blind to the issues Gail writes about, but that does not mean we cannot follow strands of her analysis in the news, whether you believe elites are masterminding de-growth or not.

          Allister Heath is perhaps a tiny bit of a retard writer though, so fair comment there.

      • Tim Groves says:

        To clarify, Harry posts items he considers may be of interest. He doesn’t necessarily personally endorse their contents or agree with everything he introduces. I for one thank him for his diligence and dedication to the task.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Believing anything that is from the official channels is plain and simple silly. By channel I mean any mouth piece with a reach.

        The real story leaks out between the cracks and it is wafting over here, gets sniffed and pondered upon, then typed down into a comment. For every comment, it moves closer to the truth.

        The only way to keep this one safe and sound is simply to say nothing at all. It is simply too many bought and paid for halfwit mouthpieces to have any hope of delivering credibility with a discerning crowd.

        The harder they push the peddlers, the worse it becomes with people opting out, running for their lives from the lie. In simpler terms – shut it off, it leaks like the Titanic.

        As I have written, basically all my engineer buddies understand that this is just goddamn smoke and mirrors.

        Waddaya gunna do? You ain’t in the know and belong to the top rung owner caste. Take from them? Listen: They own you (and me).

        Democracy you say, wanna vote depleted resources into existence? Ain’t gonna make any difference whatever ideology is hot for the moment. None.

        LTG scenario 3, hardcore.
        Embrace it. 🤗

    • In a sense, the issue was the reaction to Covid-19 as much as the disease. The fact that the world economy was in such terrible shape made it ripe for such a reaction, however.

      • Tim Groves says:

        This makes a lot of sense to me. Just as a frail, weak or infirm individual is much more vulnerable to all kinds of diseases, infections and ailments, so a frail, weak or infirm economy is more vulnerable to shocks and disruptions of many kinds.

        For frail economy, read fragile, decrepit, run-down, dilapidated, rickety, on it’s last legs anyway, etc.

    • Robert Firth says:

      His bottom line: we need a “minister for resilience”! In other words, yet another incompetent politician supervising a horde of time serving bureaucrats. The way the Ministry of Health bureaucrats are now ordering the NHS to let people die.

      I agree that this man is a retard. He is also faithfully spouting the establishment line. 9/11 was those “evil terrorists:, in spite of mountains of contrary evidence that says it was an inside job. The financial crisis was “predictable”. Indeed: it was engineered to benefit the ultra wealthy and rob the treasury. The virus is not a “black swan”. No; the black swan was the insane response of national governments, who decided to use it as a pretext to destroy their own economies. Cui bono? Who has become even wealthier, even more powerful, because of this response? They are the puppet masters.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Language, Robert! The word retard is a pejorative term either for someone with a mental disability or for someone who is stoopid, slow to understand, or ineffective in some way. As such it is offensive, since it hurts the feelings of people who are not the brightest lights on the Christmas tree but who are nonetheless doing their best.

        No, I think you’ll find the word you are looking to describe this man—that captures his essential qualities—is not retard. It’s returd.

        • Robert Firth says:

          Thank you, Tim, and I accept unreservedly your correction and mild chastisement. Not being a fan of puns, I shall choose as an alternative term, “time server”, and perhaps also “court toady”. No offence to toads intended.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Yes, let’s not insult those retards that posesses human dignity.

          How about “institutionalized sociopath”? “IS”
          And “sanctimonious hypocrite”? “SH”

          Nancy Pelosi = IS+SH


  4. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Cubans have suffered food shortages for years. Then the country’s economic situation deteriorated even further due to the Covid-19 crisis.

    “Suddenly, after years of gradual economic decline, the crisis seems to have accelerated. The main symptom is a severe shortage of food.”


  5. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Global food prices reached a six-year high in December and are likely to keep rising into 2021, adding to pressure on household budgets while hunger surges around the world.

    “A United Nations gauge of food prices has jumped 18% since May, as adverse weather, government measures to safeguard supplies and robust demand helped fuel rallies across agricultural commodities from grains to palm oil. Prices will likely climb further, the UN’s Food & Agriculture Organization said.

    “The spike threatens to push up broader inflation, making it harder for central banks to provide more stimulus to shore up economies, while stirring up memories of a food-price crisis a decade ago…”


    • Robert Firth says:

      Harry, may I offer a contrarian thought? Food prices are not rising; it is rather the fiat money in which they are priced that is falling. This reduces the purchasing power of the consumers, but it reduces only marginally, if at all, the real cost to the producers. This is a bad downward slope, and all the government money printing can only make it worse.

      The upper layers of the social pyramid are consuming the lower, and this again is a harbinger of collapse.

    • The food price increase is one to keep an eye on. Of course, oil prices are up recently too, related to a falling dollar.

  6. Harry McGibbs says:

    “India’s GDP Set to Drop 7.7%, Biggest Contraction Since 1952: GDP decline seen steeper than RBI and economists’ estimates.”


  7. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Bank of France Says High Debt Puts Financial System at Risk:

    “Low interest rates, rising credit risk weigh on banks’ profits… Extended lockdown would make it harder to pay off loans.”


  8. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Federal Reserve officials last month supported providing advance notice before the central bank makes changes to its $120bn in monthly bond purchases…

    “The Fed move appeared aimed at avoiding a premature market-triggered increase in borrowing costs that could boost interest rates for mortgages, auto loans and other consumer and business borrowing activity.”


  9. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Danes Get 20-Year 0% Mortgages: The country with the longest history of negative central bank rates is offering homeowners 20-year loans at a fixed interest rate of zero…

    “The once unthinkable notion of borrowing for two decades without paying interest comes as central bankers across the globe shy away from rate hikes.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “British lenders approved more than 100,000 new mortgages in November, the most since the start of the financial crisis in 2007…

      “After a collapse in house purchases early in the pandemic in April and May, there has been a surge in demand to move home, driven in part by a temporary lifting of property purchase taxes which will expire at the end of March.”


    • I have heard of a charity building homes and selling them to needy homeowners at 0% interest, but doing this as a general policy seems strange. Among other things, it would seem to assume that the holders of the mortgage either expect no inflation and no defaults, or that their other options for where they could put their money are even worse.

  10. Yoshua says:

    The BLM and Antifa riots mainly just burned down poor neighborhoods. They didn’t manage to violate the Whitehouse. Trump was taken down to the bunker though and became the Bunker Bitch.

    There’s is still some disconnect between summer and yesterday in media reporting.

    The summer riots was in a way social protests though. Yesterday was seen as a coup attempt.

    Both events are pointing towards a divided nation.

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  12. Yoshua says:

    I understand that the event yesterday left Americans in shock. I didn’t understand it yesterday.

    To me in Europe it looked like a ragtag mob without a clue what to do next. I guess they violated something sacred.

    I don’t know America. I just heard that it was a ragtag army that defeated the British army in the War of Independence. You don’t mess with them.

    • MSM made it suddenly a “shocking event”.. after appeasing-yawning about looting and memorials destruction of way bigger caliber and intensity just few months ago.

      Storming parliament and or other gov bldgs occasionally is absolutely normal occurrence in most of the world in the sense it is usually being stopped by the police, army etc., depending on the 1st – 3rd world status, there are either none of some causalities, then the rage cools down a bit, rinse and repeat in few yrs time or in another decade.
      It’s a release valve, cultural thing, .. more frequent in unstable time though.

      While the federal structure, spatial difference in the US, and long past history of pop not having to address politics personally ever also perhaps made it a bit of novelty just now (for some).

      • Xabier says:

        The MSM is affecting to be deeply shocked; I am sure Stalin als had a fit of the vapours when Hitler invaded and started killing people – unthinkable!

        Here in the UK, the area around Parliament is a dead zone, you could only assault it as a couple standing 6ft apart.

        No protests permitted anywhere in the UK, even in support of the right to protest itself.

        Parliament has, as so often when societies are subverted legally, voted against civil liberties and human rights once more in approving the national lock-down.
        It has been leaked than even harsher measures were considered -so we are just so terribly lucky and ought to be grateful.

  13. Mirror on the wall says:

    The reality of Boris’ ‘trade deal’ is starting to sink into UK businesses.

    > British companies GIVE UP on cross-Channel trade because of Brexit red tape: Firms rethink how they operate after UK-EU deal leaves them facing increased costs and paperwork

    British companies say an avalanche of Brexit red tape is forcing them to end cross-Channel trade.

    Small businesses across the UK have made the move to suspend trading in the EU amid stringent new customs regulations and administration costs.

    Renee Watson, who owns The Curiosity Box, which makes science kits for children in Oxfordshire, faces a bill of around £20,000 to meet new safety regulations in the wake of the Brexit deal.

    This comes as hauliers warned of ongoing disruption due to the new regulatory checks at the border.

    Ms Watson told the Financial Times that she will need to pay £500 per product for new the UKCA safety marks which came into effect on January 1.

    And Aston Chemicals in Buckinghamshire, which imports and exports chemicals for the European personal care industry, exported its final load to Europe on December 18.

    The firm has now set up a Polish branch and office in Macierzysz, some six miles from Warsaw, to supply to all EU countries, rather than exporting from Britain.

    Managing director Dani Loughran told the Financial Times she was left with ‘no choice’ but to suspend cross-Channel operations because of ‘the duplication of EU chemical regulations, the risk of tariffs because of rules of origin, border delays and increased freight and administration costs.’


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      > Boris caught in ‘spectacular own goal’ as Brexit deal gives EU advantage on business

      Brexit: EU has ‘won battle’ on share trading says Alasdair Haynes

      Aquis CEO Alasdair Haynes argued the UK has weakened its previously strong position on European equities following the Brexit deal. While speaking to Bloomberg, Mr Haynes argued the UK should not expect to be granted equivalence from the EU. He noted that 18 months later, after a spat with the European Commission, Switzerland still has not been granted equivalence.

      This has meant that UK investors for European shares will either have to go to Europe or trade in London, which Mr Haynes dubbed a “spectacular own goal” from Boris Johnson.

      Mr Haynes said: “We are the sixth-largest exchange in Europe in terms of turnover and do about 5 percent market share.

      “75 percent of our business has been European business and that has been conducted in London.

      Today, overnight we have seen 99.6 percent of that business shift to Europe.

      “Europe has clearly, clearly won the battle to win its own share trading back into the EU 27.”


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      > Experts warn ‘Alice in Wonderland’ Brexit deal is unstable

      Giving evidence to a committee of MPs, she said the deal in fact created “quite a lot of difficulties for business,” as it had not completely eliminated the risk of tariffs.

      Barnard said there were many ways the agreement could be brought to an end by both sides, including the UK terminating it at a year’s notice.

      Both sides would then likely trade on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms, including steep tariffs for UK exporters from carmakers to lamb farmers. Tariffs are taxes governments can levy on imports, often to protect their own industries from competition.

      Meanwhile a review will be held every five years, and Northern Ireland’s Assembly has the chance to vote down part of the arrangements in four years’ time.

      Further uncertainty lies over both sides’ ability within the deal to impose tariffs in retaliation for breaches of its terms, which Barnard said could be “pretty painful, pretty quickly.” Such retaliatory tariffs could occur if Britain sought to diverge from certain EU regulations on labour standards or other areas.

      The lack of stability was “a more fundamental concern about this deal than anything else,” she said.

      “If you’re a car manufacturer and you’re thinking of investing in new plants…you don’t know whether tariffs are going to be imposed, either because the deal is brought to an end, or because there’s going to be cross-retaliation.”

      The finer details of the deal and how it will work in practice have left even experts summoned by the Commons committee on UK-EU relations scratching their heads, however.

      Barnard said the full legal document was “fiendishly complicated” and had a “slightly Alice in Wonderland quality about it—nothing appears quite as it first looks.”


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Brexiteers now seem intent on getting UK tariffed and sanctioned.

      > Scrap EU consumer and worker protections now Brexit is completed, leading Tory says

      Safeguards over data, pay and conditions, GM foods, hedge funds and disposal of old vehicles should all be binned, Daniel Hannan says

      A leading Tory credited with inspiring Brexit has urged Boris Johnson to cull a raft of EU consumer and worker protections, now the UK has the freedom to act.

      Safeguards for the use of data, pay and conditions, GM foods, hedge funds, dangerous chemicals and the disposal of environmentally-damaging vehicles should all be binned, Daniel Hannan said.

      “Change is coming. To succeed outside the EU, we need to be fitter, leaner and more globally engaged,” said the former MEP, who has just been made a Conservative peer.

      The call comes after the prime minister vowed to start breaking free from EU rules, now the post-Brexit transition period has is over, saying “we have nothing to fear”.

      Under the trade agreement he signed, Brussels has the power to inflict wide-ranging tariffs or other sanctions on the UK if it breaches the so-called ‘level playing field’.

      Nevertheless, Mr Hannon, in a website article, called for the scrapping of: [long list follows]


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      > Scottish independence: Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal sold out Northern Ireland’s unionists and Scotland’s are next

      It’s not that Irish politicians have been struck dumb or coronavirus has silenced them. They’ve got a deal with access to the EU that most Scots would bite your hand off for. Even student-exchange scheme Erasmus and the European Health Insurance Card is being covered by the Republic. The DUP may have wanted to leave the EU but it’s not what their electorate wanted, or what Johnson promised.

      Their silence is therefore more than just a huff with the Tories. Instead it’s that Irish Unionists know what’s being done to them and saving the “precious” union it most certainly isn’t.

      A referendum’s inevitable and Irish unity almost certain. Scottish unionists would do well to heed the warning given by the statelet’s godfather Sir Edward Carson when he said in 1921: “What a fool I was! I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster… and Ireland in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into power.”


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      > Fishing chief shames Boris for sacrificing MILES of UK water – ‘More Heath than Churchill’

      BORIS Johnson has been accused of an “almost complete capitulation” in terms of taking back control of UK waters after Brexit by an industry chief, in a caustic assessment of the trade deal unveiled on Christmas Eve.

      He said: “That about sums it up, deal is done, despite their promises, we gave away the 6-12 mile zone.

      “There were 17 Belgian beam trawlers on the 6 mile line between Hastings and Brighton.

      “No wonder there is no fish getting inshore.

      “There will be no change after 5.5 years despite what they say.

      “I’ve had loads of calls from inshore fishermen, ranging from tears to despair.

      “An almost complete capitulation so nothing much else to say.”

      Comparing Mr Johnson to two former Tory Prime Ministers, he said: “Heath rather than Churchill.”

      “They just painted themselves into a corner and believed their own PR.

      “One would like to think that they were aware of the weakness of the UK’s negotiating position.

      “But I fear that we are governed by those who are either just stunningly incompetent in real-world terms or have a deeper agenda that escapes us mere mortals.

      “The vast majority of fishermen feel that we were used and abused.

      “Don’t underestimate the strength of feeling out there as to the depths of anger and frustration that fishermen feel that they have been used and then simply thrown away without a second thought.”

      “Lacking legal, moral, or political negotiating leverage on fish, the EU made the whole trade deal contingent on a UK surrender on fisheries.”

      He said: “In the end-game, the Prime Minister made the call and caved in on fish, despite the rhetoric and assurances that he would not do what
      Ted Heath did in 1973.


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      > City faces years of Brexit limbo in equivalence snag: ‘The liquidity has already shifted’

      The key issue is equivalence: ‘The UK is now in a very difficult position where Europe has the upper hand in any negotiation as the liquidity has already shifted.’

      City firms may have to wait for “years” for a meaningful UK-EU agreement on financial services, according to experts in the field.

      The prospects are so bleak for anything more than the current bare-bones arrangements, according to some, that as far as the City is concerned it will be operating under no-deal Brexit conditions for the foreseeable future.

      One of the most crucial issues is that of “equivalence” — EU regulators’ process for granting market access to UK firms if the country’s financial rules are deemed similar to its own. But legal and regulatory experts see little prospect of any quick and far-reaching agreement that would grant – and guarantee – this status for swathes of the UK industry.

      Many were already warned. Financial News wrote in November that analysts and exchange executives sounded a similar alarm — saying that European Union-based customers of equity-trading venues owned by London Stock Exchange Group, Cboe Europe, Aquis Exchange and others will be unable to trade on markets based in the UK unless the European Commission formally recognises the country as having equivalent financial regulations.

      “The reality of the agreement to discuss [in the Johnson government’s trade deal], is that it is much weaker than what was in the political declaration agreed by the May government,” said Jonathan Herbst, partner at law firm Norton Rose Fulbright.

      “What all of this means in the commercial world is probably that firms need to carry on with their no-deal plans,” he said.

      Even where equivalence decisions are granted, at the moment, the EU can withdraw equivalence rights for UK firms with 30 days’ notice. The decision cannot be contested by the UK.


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Spain is pressing its hand regarding Gibraltar. It got its main objective at the last minute before Brexit, to ensure sole Spanish control over the borders. It is now following up by insisting on Spanish police at the ports and airport. The move has a certain symbolism to it, as Spain and UK have long been at loggerheads over Gibraltar and Spain considers the British occupation to be illegal. UK now has to accept that Spain has sole say over certain policies. Going it alone, as in Brexit, can easily lead to getting cut out by the rest.

      > Brexit skirmish erupts as Spain demands police presence allowed in Gibraltar docks

      GIBRALTAR’s post-Brexit agreement with Spain is already in jeopardy as the European Union member state has requested a police presence at docks and airport

      Brexit: Gibraltar may accept Spanish police presence says expert

      Jesus Verdu from the University of Cádiz’ told EuroNews it will be difficult for Gibraltar to accept that Spain has the last word on certain policies. He added that Gibraltar will eventually accept the measures but it will not be easy.

      Mr Verdu said: “While the parties have negotiated this deal quickly it could have been easier to find a solution.

      “Now with all the parties exposed by the daylight of Brexit, it is difficult for Gibraltar to accept that the last word is going to come from Spain.

      “Since there is no other option anymore, I believe Gibraltar will eventually accept it but it will not be easy.

      “It will need to be an exercise either of a certain makeup or of compensation for Gibraltar in the negotiating process.”

      Earlier this week Spain’s Foreign Minister claimed that Brexit will let his country have sole control over who can enter Gibraltar.

      Gibraltar agreed to a deal to join the Schengen travel zone hours before the UK left the European Union.

      The deal between Gibraltar and the rest of the EU ensures the free movement of people and goods from the bloc into the territory.

      Spanish foreign minister Arancha González Laya told Spanish newspaper El Pais: “Schengen has a set of rules, procedures, and instruments to apply them, including its database, to which only Spain has access.

      “Gibraltar and the United Kingdom do not.

      “In order to enter a Gibraltar integrated into the Schengen area, the responsibility for border control is in Spanish hands.

      “That is why the final decision on who enters the Schengen area is Spanish, of course.”


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      This is just unbelievable. Financial services are flooding out of London and the response of the Governor of the Bank of England is to say that UK should tell EU to gfy. TP may think that is a ‘negotiating tactic’ but it is UK that is going to be told to gfy as in the ‘trade deal’. The feeling is that EU will not grant ‘equivalence’ to London anyway and it will be cut out of EU.

      > EU may ask too high a price for financial services trade, BoE warns

      LONDON (Reuters) – Britain should not submit to the European Union’s financial services rules just to get better access to the bloc’s market after Brexit, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Wednesday.

      European daily share trading worth 6 billion euros ($7.36 billion) left the City of London for the continent this week in the first tangible sign of Brexit’s impact on Britain’s 130 billion-pound ($176 billion) finance industry.

      Bailey said Britain must not become a mere “taker” of EU rules in return for access.

      “If the price of this is too high then we can’t just go for it whatever,” he told parliament’s Treasury Committee.

      “I strongly recommend that we don’t become a rule-taker. If the price of that is no equivalence … then I am afraid that will follow.”

      Britain left the EU’s single market last week and its new trade deal with the bloc does not cover financial market access.

      Bailey said the EU’s drive to be more self-sufficient in financial services was shaping its decisions on equivalence.

      “The question is: are they going to do it? Is this the time when they do it? Because it hasn’t happened to date in many areas,” he said.


      • It seems like the fallout of losing financial services in the UK could be bad.

        • If confirmed from the rear view mirror though, say by ~2022-23 it will be clear that decision has been made toss UK and US under the bus. The global owner class from that point circling the wagons, concentrating on the EU from now as their home turf, plus perhaps few special splinter republics in the f-USA.
          It’s a possible scenario.. not enough hard data for now.

          • Herbie Ficklestein says:

            Last night George Gammon has a special two part podcast with Lyn Alden regarding topics like Investing for Inflation. George asked her what fiat currency she preferred best, even if they all are suspect. She reflected that the Singapore Dollar would be because of the banking sector and the movement towards the East from the West economical. George validated that it made sense because he stayed there for a time and was impressed with the dynamic sector and with New York and London downsizing Singapore would be a good candidate to service BAU. Should mention too the investor, Jim Rogers, resides there with his family.
            Says the reason is for his children, because that’s where BAU will live also…if it can survive😷😌
            Of course, Singapore is island city state that is way overshoot in population.
            Anyway, just a thought…oh, Lyn is very bright and George always provides insight 👍

            • Singapore will be reconquered by the Malays and I don’t think these people who set up shop there will do well

            • That’s interesting.
              Gammon and Lyn Alden seem to draw some audience. Well, perhaps the banking system gets a bit overloaded in future weeks with “unusual” demand for that specific cash specimen based on such videos..

              Unfortunately, I’m likely not joining, not only because the lack of funds to play, but also it probably makes little sense at this stage. For real turbulent situation, say e.g. EUR goes up against USD by ~35-65% and $ingapore then ~50-80% .. at that point another set of capital and other various emergency controls kick in that it would be futile..

          • Xabier says:

            It’s interesting: Britain still has lots of truly lovely real estate, above all rural, which is very nice for the oligarchs.

            I tend to see the destruction/expulsion being of particular classes and sectors, not whole regions as such, at least in the Core.

            One thing is certain, the mass of the current middle class will be expelled form Eden by the angel with a flaming sword.

            • No doubt there are many stunning (and historical) estates, natural reserves in the UK. But I’m still somehow perplexed by the land vs overpop ratio, and also perhaps the changing demographics in the sense British people getting accustomed to their native oligarchs over the times, not sure this will continue under the new settings (foreign “no taste” oligarchs and newly incoming inhabitants in).

            • Tim Groves says:

              Xabier, it will be just like the highland clearances, only coming to the lowlands.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          “About 4,000 City firms are at a heightened risk of failure due to the Covid crisis, and nearly a third of those businesses could potentially harm consumers if they collapsed, the financial watchdog has warned.”


    • Not good!

  14. Tim Groves says:

    As often happens, the Simpson’s got there first.

  15. Ed says:

    Tens of thousands of riot police in DC this night. Ranked 8 deep and hundreds wide. I expect for tonight:
    1) Biden is declared the winner
    2) two dems from Georgia are declared winners and sworn in
    3) Trump is declared insane and removed from office under the 25th amendment
    4) massive, tens of thousands, arrests and internment of patriots who will be classed terrorists it will set an example for any who would oppose the blob my phrase for dems/tptb/ccp/bankers/great new reset/etc…

    • Tim Groves says:

      It’s a plausible scenario. It has a certain logic to it.

      In conflicts of this type, one side has to crush the other or face the prospect of being crushed itself. And when you’ve got all those FEMA camps and black coffins piled up, it would be a terrible waste not to put them to some use.

    • Tim Groves says:

      On the other hand, we must not despair. It’s always darkest before the dawn. Over the long term and around the world, globalism is dying and the populist, nationalist, conservative and patriotic tide is unstoppable. We simply don’t have the resources to support the insatiable greed and opulent lifestyles of the parasitic overclass, and herding the bulk of humanity like cattle, pigs and chickens into factory farms is not a sustainable solution to anyone’s problems.

      • You should be aware of the Meiji Restoration. There was actually a reactionary backlash on 1858 when the person actually running the shognuate arrested and killed a lot of the reformers.

        The sparks did not fire up until 1868 after a few false starts

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        “… the populist, nationalist, conservative and patriotic tide is unstoppable.”

        perhaps true, although it was at least temporarily stopped in the USA 11/2020 by the-fraud-that-must-not-be-mentioned.

        so is this a permanent strategy going forward for globalists everywhere?

        • Rodster says:

          Just as Covid 19 was used as an excuse to clamp down on riots around the world, so too will it be used here in the USA. We are already hearing of Covid mutations.

          NY State has passed a bill that can put anyone in a Covid detention camp if it thinks you or anyone else is infected. Once people lose everything and have nothing else to lose, “they will lose it.”

          We are beginning to see that taking place. Martin Armstrong on his website was predicting chaos, violence and massive civil unrest long before the election took place. Neither side will accept defeat because those with the authority to decide have abdicated their responsibility. The SCOTUS could have intervened by hearing fraud allegations but decided not to. So now the US is primed for civil unrest and a possible breakup of the Nation.

          But hey, the stock market is at an all time high. /sarc

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        “globalism is dying and the populist, nationalist, conservative and patriotic tide is unstoppable”

        What do you personally see as the purpose/ point of “populist, nationalist, conservative and patriotic” tendencies?

        Globalism is present stage of capitalist development, the interconnectedness of international capital and countries. It seems that will devolve only as the entire global economy heads toward collapse. And it seems unlikely that will be in anyone’s interests. There is not going to be any ‘winners’ when that comes down.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Mirror gets it.

          You can’t liberalism, populism and conservatism yourself to prosperity. It won’t make any difference, but rather give you a thorough exercise in futility.

          Objective reality won’t bend to ideals. It just is, similar to the processes that governs life on earth. Is.


        • Tim Groves says:

          What do you personally see as the purpose/ point of “populist, nationalist, conservative and patriotic” tendencies?

          Catharsis and nostalgia are two of the biggies, obviously. Many people are frustrated with the way their world is changing. They like things the way they were, and doing something to try to change things feels better to them than passively accepting the status quo.

          Principles and values are also factors. People like to think that they are voting for what’s best not just for themselves but also for society as a whole or for the country as a whole. They may be deceiving themselves in this, but as I never tire of observing, perception is everything.

          And how about disgust? Many people are absolutely sick of the globalist, progressive, post-modern, pseudo-Marxist social justice, gender fluid, Vielfalt über alles, universelles Grundeinkommen macht frei, the government knows best, it takes an idiot to run a village, nanny state, which they imagine as a social worker’s hush puppies stepping on your face forever, for your own good, you understand. Yes, they are sick sick sick of it, and they eventually work them selves up in to a state of angry and self-righteous resistance to it.

          That it gets them nothing but more trouble in the end matters not a wit to them. The amount of effort people waste on fruitless political activity when they could be tending their own garden or vacuum cleaning and dusting the house is amazing. But the “left” has organized so successfully of late that the “right” feels the need to emulate them or risk the end of the world as they know it.

          • Kowalainen says:

            They for sure don’t complain when they are the beneficiaries of said guvmint nanny programs.

            What fscking sucks is the obnoxious and obstinate socialist engineering. Every. Fucking. Where.

            How about providing the means of opting out of it. Give me the button. Beam me up Scotty. This is getting retarded.

            At least the Don went out with a bang.

        • Lidia17 says:

          “What do you personally see as the purpose/ point of “populist, nationalist, conservative and patriotic” tendencies?”

          Why do they need to have a purpose beyond being the most natural and instinctive things in the world for an organism to do?

          The challenge is rather “what is the purpose of globalism?” since it is unnatural to the human spirit and condition as evolved within previous energetical limits.

          One might say that the purpose of globalism is to faster break down energy gradients, and that—in such service—humans are a conduit taken to the brink of their useful conductivity in allowing for that to happen.

          An excess of globalism has the tendency to burn out our individual filaments, I reckon.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          Tim and Lidia, two reasonable replies there. Thanks for that.

          Personally I think that those counter-trends are pointless because capitalism itself is ordered to globalism as the present stage of its development. Western Europe had three options in WWII and it ‘chose’ capitalism; present trends have been inevitable ever since. As you point out, there is a certain subjective discomfort with those trends but ‘choices’ have consequences and there is nothing that can be done about it now. Europe has already made its bed and it is going to have to lie in it.

      • I think you are correct.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “3) Trump is declared insane and removed from office under the 25th amendment”


      the Ds would want this last-few-days removal of Trump just to add to the MSM historical list of failings/indignities.

      it’s purely political, oh look at us pure Ds we’ve never needed this done to a D POTUS.

      my reflexive guess is that Trump lasts until noon 1/20/2021.

      • The game has changed. Trump is not relevant anymore. The producers are not going to behave like what they used to before.

        It will be like the Chinese warlord era, when there was a “President” and a “Government” in Peking, but no one paid attention to it outside of there.

      • Bei Dawei says:

        Trump, insane? In comparison to what baseline?

    • outcome says:

      Yes now the riot police show. It was a setup they dropped the barricades and let them in. That poor kid from jersey up above will be hunted down. MSM calls them “violent” and “armed” wheres the evidence of that? Yeah sitting in a chair and putting your feet up on the desk thats obviously the work of dangerous people. Did one pull out a lighter and start a fire? No. This was about as dangerous as a frat party except for their execution of Ashli.

      The BLM protest with 4 stabbing in dc a short time ago “peaceful protest”.

      Republican party is finished. Next election they will have to cheat to give the republicans some votes to keep up the pretense. A fake swamp romney or a rubio is not trump. They are going to pack the senate and the supreme court now anyway. Its less painful to just not vote for a swamp creature and have your vote stolen. Massive non participation not just voting but society.

      74 million mon kee wretches

    • Artleads says:

      I wear a mask in public like anyone else. But I routinely post anti-vax and anti-panic info and opinions to my own FB page (which often gets spilled over into “Friends'” spaces, causing mostly incredulous responses). A lot of what I post on my own “Timeline” comes from OFW.

      Today I got a Facebook private message from someone in my community who claims to be representing something called Health Freedom. Said she heard I was anti masks and generally not with the “program.” So in my own, supposedly tolerant, village, I’m being singled out (REPORTED!) for some kind of non compliance. This seems like quite a serious position to be in.

      The reason why I HAD been posting as described was in the hope it would nudge a critical majority out of the tendency to drift in a fascist direction, but it could well be better just to keep quiet.

      • Jarle says:


        – Where do you live?
        – Why do you wear face masks?
        – Why are you on Facebook?

      • Tim Groves says:

        When in Salem, never fly around on a broomstick.

      • Xabier says:

        Take care, Artleads: the next step, clearly, will be when they try to turn the brainless conformists who comply with the ‘war against Covid’ against those who have brought good sense and real science to bear on this issue.

        They will be misrepresented and vilified, blamed for the continuing lock-downs. It could get very nasty indeed.

        • as I’ve been bleating on about

          hate needs focus—any focus.

          your situation is relatively mild and innocuous, but these things easily get out of hand.

          witches got burned because somebody’s cow died, that mentality has never gone away

          • Xabier says:

            Everyone who, voluntarily, submits to being vaccinated -which is the keystone of the plan we can see unfolding so clearly – is complicit in the loss of civil liberties and basic human rights, and in the eventual persecution of those who decline to participate as ‘bio-threats’ and bad citizens.

            The persecution will be brutal, and it will also be done not just by the state, but it will be engineered so that angry citizens persecute those who do not comply -as in the Maoist criticism sessions.

            Without mass vaccinations, their scope for reform and oppression will be a little more limited: digital currencies, of course, abolition of cash in nearly all circumstances, etc, they are now almost certain,.

            But the need to regulate and manage vaccinations will be the main justification for total micro-surveillance via ‘ ‘health passports’.

            The elderly like to say sentimentally that their grandchildren are the most important thing: all nonsense if they accept vaccinations of this kind, imposed by blatant fraud. Ditto for any parents, or any one, in fact, with half a brain.

            This issues are very clear now, the lines drawn.

            • if you think immunisation is a loss of civil liberties and basic human rights

              read this:


              Then decide how many civil liberties he has left. No plots, no conspiracies. He exists in a way we cannot begin to imagine.
              Yet we bleat on about ‘human rights’.

              My kids were immunised against a whole raft of stuff. No loss of human rights as far as I am aware.

              I say that even though one of them came within a whisker of being a thalidomide case—which taught me never to go against a woman’s instinct!! But that wasn’t immunisation, it was suggested medication.

            • Xabier says:

              Norman, you are, I’m afraid, quite wrong on this.

              Obviously, simple fear of death – as with many when their earthly term is drawing to a close – is clouding your judgement.

              An old man, you wish to live a little longer. Of course you do!

              But far greater issues are at stake; and you are quite intelligent enough to see them, and have no real excuse.

              The difference is that this will not be a purely medical intervention with benign intentions: vaccination has to be, we are told, managed using a universal system of management and surveillance, the ‘health passport’, and also monitoring systems in public spaces, offices and shops.

              All to ‘Keep You Safe’…..

              I can only repeat, that by being vaccinated so soon, you have sold the pass which will lead to the enslavement of your grandchildren.

            • JMS says:

              Today, Xabier, science has, in practical terms, the value of a religious belief. Norman wants to believe in health and political authorities, and as you know, trying to reason with believers is pointless.Their emotions will never accept your logic or facts.

            • Artleads says:

              Quite agree, Xabier,

              If we are to come within a whisker of escaping the worst of this totalitarian nightmare, vaccination resistance, and only vaccination resistance, is the subject at hand. THEIR strategy is to soft pedal the issue till they ensnare you in their web, where you are shut off and beyond help from allies.

              I’m pretty much done with posting on the issue on FB. Time to be quiet and observing, and see how the ball is rolling.

              So the problem, then, is not to wait till forced vaccinations come up (as we believe they will), but to consider from today the strategies that could weaken or nullify those expected assaults.

              I tried to anticipate the future by posting skeptical posts about the lockstep paradigm. I had even posted early on in favor of rigorous adherence to mask wearing. (Give THEM something in hopes they’ll give US something back). But they conveniently overlook that fact and appeal to the toxic psychological gas they KNOW most people have inhaled–yeah, that’ll have them stultified and in our camp! A very subtle and insidious form of propaganda warfare. So now they can twist the truth and say that I don’t subscribe to masks or anything related to “health safety”.

            • so I’ll ask again As no answer seems forthcoming;

              if this guy would have been affronted by his civil liberties being infringed had he had a Salk vaccine offered/given to him 70 years ago


              or perhaps spending 70 years in an iron lung is so politically anti-vax correct that his ‘human rights’ must not be infringed under any circumstances.
              I feel sure he would have submitted to any totalitarian regime to avoid that life sentence. (opinion warning there–feel free to correct)

              My own kids had the Salk vaccine and others as a matter of course. The silliness of ‘totalitarianism’ in this context wasn’t thought of then. Why? because there was no hysterical media by which such insanity could be spread.

              even though the totalitarian thing is such utter nonsense as to be unworthy of rational discussion.
              just as with rest of the hoax list for which I keep my conspiracy deflation pin sharp and ready.

              I only stir it on behalf of the poor devil there whose human rights everyone is so determined to uphold. Without giving it any real in depth thought.

              And the millions who missed out on being crippled by polio (and other nasties), by ignoring what is loosely known as ‘civil liberties’

            • Tim Groves says:

              Norman, I think Xabier is correct on this and you are mistaken. (But you guessed that anyway. 🙂 )

              Let’s not get into polio vaccination or smallpox vaccination just now. They are important issues and I would be happy to discuss them elsewhere, but they are not the issue we are talking about here. It was a nice try, but you are simply dodging the issue—as you invariably do when faced with arguments that you find persuasive but nevertheless unpalatable to accept.

              The issue is that you, Norman, stand before us accused of aiding and abetting the enslavement of your grandchildren by accepting—nay!—welcoming a voluntary Covid-19 vaccine and thereby siding with the forces of totalitarianism.

              Xabier says you are complicit in the loss of civil liberties and basic human rights, and in the eventual persecution of those who decline to participate as ‘bio-threats’ and bad citizens. And Xabier is an honourable man.

              What’s more, his indictment is very clearly and soberly laid out and is more damning than anything I would ever lob at you. .

            • I have 3 daughters, all born fit and healthy

              imagine, 50 years ago, the question had arisen about giving the Salk vaccine and I had refused on the grounds of ‘infringing my daughters civil liberties’ and one of them got polio and spent the rest of her life in a wheelchair.

              she looks at me now, and says:

              “dad, why am I in a wheelchair?”
              and I reply, “sorry love, I couldn’t risk infringing your human rights when you were 5, and seeing you as the subject of a totalitarian state, all the other kids got vaccinated, but you were too precious to risk it.”

              She says “Thank you, I can see that you really cared back then, I hope your sense of self satisfaction has helped you this last 50 years, you’ll be dead soon–I hope your high principles die with you.”


              Then I refuse another daughter the MMR vac at 5 (my high principles about civil liberties again you see?)

              20 years later, she gets pregnant, and catches Rubella coincidentally at the same time

              She is then delivered of a healthy, but blind baby.

              My grandchild says to me:

              “Grandad, why am I blind?”
              “Sorry about that son, ” I say. ” but I wasn’t prepared to risk your mom’s civil liberties at 5, had I done so, you would now be the slave of a totalitarian state.”
              “Yes Grandad, my guide dog is lovely, and my white stick is useful, but at least I would be able to see it”

              But my high principles are sacrosanct. I could not be complicit in creating a totalitarian state.

              btw—any actual attempt at the above would have resulted in a swift kicking from my other half–and rightly so. The question never arose, in any case.

              And no–it isn’t possible to separate the principles of one ‘vaccination’ from another to suit a line of argument such as this.
              Salk, MMR, Covid,—-Vaccination is what it is.

              Theres a lot of nonsense gets batted to and fro on here, almost all of it can be laughed off (my own included)…that is my usual reaction anyway. I have no idea whether the people telling me I am a menace to society here have kids, or not. That may make a difference. Kids are a lifetime liability, one way or another.

              But vaccination is different. The obsession with some kind of ‘dictatorship’ bending human minds and subjecting them to totalitarianism (or something) has to be shown to be what it is:

              The same dangerous mania that let the WH be invaded by a mob screaming much the same thing. They were not ‘creating or saving’ a future, but bent on destroying it, because nonsenses had become reality in their minds. (obsession with dictatorship again).
              Gates, Soros et al are not coming to get you.
              At least some non-commenters might read that and come to believe it. I only write this stuff down in order to know what I’m thinking.

              I don’t pretend to be qualified academically on any subject, I just have a fair way with words, a big logic button and a sharp pin for conspiracy balloons. Ive tried to use all three here.

              And this is sidestepping the issue?? I fear you don’t know what the issue is. Perhaps it has been clouded by self obsession and a weird form of delusional political correctness.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              Thoughtful post. Doubt it will sway the rabid Anti-Vaxers, but nice to see it here.

            • thanks Keith

              good to know somebody gets the point

            • hkeithhenson says:

              “Everyone who, voluntarily, submits to being vaccinated”

              I have a funny story on this topic, though I can’t find where I read it.

              The pollsters ran a couple of surveys on how many of the population would get vaccinated. They were about 20% apart, far more than the margin of error. After considerable head scratching, they look at what in the news might have caused the jump.

              It was just informed speculation, but between the two surveys the news came out of rich folks offering up to $25,000 to jump the vaccine line.


            • TIm Groves says:

              I say that even though one of them came within a whisker of being a thalidomide case—which taught me never to go against a woman’s instinct!.

              Thalidomide is still an essential medicine on the WHO list, despite a long list of nasty side effects, although not recommended for pregnant, lactating or could-get-pregnant^at-the-drop-of-a-hat women.

              Wikipedia says it’s a first-line treatment in multiple myeloma in combination with dexamethasone or with melphalan and prednisone, to treat acute episodes of erythema nodosum leprosum, and for maintenance therapy.

              Also, says the same article, the bacterium that causes tuberculosis (TB) is related to leprosy. Thalidomide may be helpful in some cases where standard TB drugs and corticosteroids are not sufficient to resolve severe inflammation in the brain.

            • I know all about thalidomide–having come so close to it, I’ve researched it out of general interest

            • Tim Groves says:

              At least Norman has been good enough to lay out the logic of why he is in favor of vaccination for things such as polio, measles, mumps and rubella. In short, it would be remiss of him not to take measures to prevent his children from contracting devastating diseases.

              The problem is nobody asked him to do that and I for one would rather he had just answered Xabier’s criticism vs. taking the Covid 19 vaccine.

              But Norman, as you insist on taking this line, I will take the bait and ask, what about the risks of giving a child a vaccine for one of the above diseases that results in injury to or the death of that child?

              Yes, I can accept that vaccinating children against potentially debilitating diseases such as polio might be a a desirable or a necessary thing to do, given the degree of long-term suffering that disease can cause in those who develop the full blown symptoms.

              But please don’t think vaccine injuries or deaths don’t occur.

              You mentioned the Salk vaccine by name. Well, you should be aware that “in April 1955, more than 200 000 children in five Western and mid-Western US states received the polio vaccine developed by Jonas Salk in which the process of inactivating the live virus proved to be defective. Within days there were reports of paralysis and within a month the first mass vaccination programme against polio had to be abandoned. Subsequent investigations revealed that the vaccine, manufactured by Cutter Laboratories, had caused 40 000 cases of polio, leaving 200 children with varying degrees of paralysis and killing 10.”


              That’s the official story, openly admitted. And that’s just one incident. What the real extent of the cumulative damage vaccines have caused people is anyone’s guess. And children these days are being administered a lot more injections than was the case when your kids were young. I’ve had six shots in my life. To comply with the current schedule, young Americans will have over 20 shots in the first 18 months after birth and over 70 shots by the time they are 18.

              You could have damaged your kids by allowing them to be vaccinated. Fortunately they were not damaged. You may have damaged yourself by letting yourself be vaccinated against Covid-19. Of course, I hope that doesn’t happen. But it’s a real risk.

              My cousin lost a beautiful baby girl to vaccine-induced meningitis in the early 1970s. It was heartbreaking for the entire family. Fortunately your family avoided that sort of tragedy. I’m happy for you. Other people are not so lucky. And when their kids are killed or injured by vaccinations, there is a good chance the medical authorities will deny it, and that people with your mindset will support them in their denial.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > what about the risks of giving a child a vaccine for one of the above diseases that results in injury to or the death of that child?

              Tim, everything in life has risk. The rational approach is to take the lower risk. The chance that a vaccine will hurt a kid vs getting the disease and risking death is clear to most rational parents.

              It used to be that half the children died before they were 5 years old. Vaccines along with clean and treated water plus sewers have cut that to rare events.

              As to the early polio vaccine induced cases, making these things is hard, it was harder in those days. The event was investigated in depth and the results published in an attempt to be make something like that less likely in the future. They are not too common, but vaccine failures still occur, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengue_fever#Vaccine

            • Tim Groves says:

              The same dangerous mania that let the WH be invaded by a mob screaming much the same thing. They were not ‘creating or saving’ a future, but bent on destroying it, because nonsenses had become reality in their minds.

              If you’d been paying attention, you’d know that the building you refer to is the Capitol, where Congress sits, not the White House, where the President lives and works.

              More importantly, you would know that the invasion was a piece of theatre staged by the establishment, who bussed in their own actors to carry it out in order to discredit the 1.5 million peaceful protesters who were gathered in DC and doing their best to safeguard the democratic process and protect the Constitution of United States and their own children’s futures.

            • apologies

              meant capitol building

              Thanks–have always wanted to meet someone who never made a simple error

            • Yorchichan says:

              It would be simple to do large scale studies of the health outcomes of vaccinated versus unvaccinated children. All health records are held in databases these days, after all. Anyone with access to a database and rudimentary knowledge of SQL could do an analysis in minutes. The fact that these studies are never carried out, or at least never made public, speaks volumes. You can be sure that if vaccinated children did not have worse health outcomes than unvaccinated children the results would be broadcast from the rooftops. Instead, all we get is obfuscation.

              This small study reveals what I am sure would be replicated by any large scale studies if such were allowed:


              The graphs at the bottom say it all.

            • Jarle says:


              “Gates, Soros et al are not coming to get you.”

              You don’t know that. Mr Gates et al might very well be greedy as can be with no qualms.

            • Jarle

              thank you for pointing that out. It helps.

              I care that I write sane comments, and being human, I sometimes have self doubts that what I write has some basis in rational thinking. Eventually I will go gaga—problem is knowing when of course. Then I shall be consigned to the sunshine home for redundant doomsters.

              But in the meantime restating the Gates /Soros conspiracy lets me know that I still have at least some shred of sanity left.

              I can only hope for your sake that your comment was made in jest.

          • Ed says:

            /sarc on
            Norman you are not the first to mention witches. I have come to realize that is the cause of our current problems. Yes, there are good witches but currently it is almost all wicked witches. We need a woke program of good witch training to begin immediately. Don’t thinkk that just ignoring the witch problem will make it go away.

            Glenda where are you when we need you?
            /sarc off

            • Bei Dawei says:

              They prefer to be called “Wiccans” these days. Anyway “good” and “evil” are orientations (“alignments,” in technical D&D language). Trying to convert evil to good would be a monstrous act of bigotry (or perhaps, chaotic neutrality). Blessed Be, etc.

          • Jarle says:


            “Vaccination is what it is.”

            Please …

            • if there’s another name (other than inoculation, immunisation etc,) for introducing an antibody by some means, for the purpose of some kind of medical purpose, disease prevention, and such, feel free to explain what it is.

              If it’s Bill Gates sneaking into vac plants every night, doctoring each dose with a mind altering substance, then we must find another name for it.

              Gatesication? Sorostration?

          • Jarle says:


            “if there’s another name (other than inoculation, immunisation etc,) for introducing an antibody by some means, for the purpose of some kind of medical purpose, disease prevention, and such, feel free to explain what it is.”

            Mr bullet dodger I presume?

      • a says:

        Norman, my daughter (a health professional) asks me about the shots I got at school and early on in life. I might not have lived otherwise and she might not have been born. So what would she have missed?

        And the fact that we in the core have all extended our lives through technological inventions…is that an absolute good for generations of kids to come? I often read on OFW that there are too many of us here now consuming too much. We in the core don’t mind that, but how can you square that with a universal good?

        Are you suggesting that walking protoplasm vaccinated so it can walk on longer for no particular reason other than its own unconsidered whim, is an unquestionable good?

        Vaccinations in my childhood happened in a world with a quarter of today’s population. Most of the world’s living systems were intact enough to not warrant any great concerns about the why of maintaining the system we had. The global technocratic reach did not extend to every corner of the world. Conspiracies on a global level were unthinkable in the way we can conceive of them now.

        Aren’t vaccinations today a call to keep growing and “prospering” forever in a finite world?

        • Kowalainen says:

          “We in the core don’t mind that, but how can you square that with a universal good?”

          I mind that, mind you.

        • Tim Groves says:

          This is the current recommended US vaccination schedule.


          Some kids are getting 70~80 shots by the age of 18.

          They get around 20 immune-system-boosting shots before their immune system is operational and they are still being protected by what’s in their mother’s milk.

          If you had been shot up with 70 or 80 vaccines by the age of 18, you might not have lived or prospered until your current age.

          Who knows the value of life for another person? We have to make or borrow our own meaning of life and our own reasons for living. Some of us do this really really well, while others can’t manage to do so and that adds to the burden they have to bear.

          • first off, I know nothing about USA vac programmes, what that might or might not do to kids I have no idea—I can only go on uk stuff 50 years ago

            I’m also aware of the Salk problem in 55.

            as I understand it, it was licensed free by Salk for universal use. it was a mistake made by another manufacturer.

            love the term ‘burden they have to bear’—a real insight there. thanks.

            one tries , usually unsuccessfully, to lighten that burden.

            now I know that I’m dealing with someone who puts ‘human rights’ above a simple medical procedures that are likely tp prevent crippling diseases and/or blindness.

            Which is precisely why I worded my comment in the context that I did..

            Dunno why I waste time hammering home the reality, that there is NO totalitarian state plotting to use Gates’ vaccination program to take over the world. Even putting it into words reads foolishly–as if the statement of denial offers a thread of credibility. And no—I can’t prove it–Just like I can’t prove there’s a chocolate teapot orbiting Mars.

            All medical intervention carries risk. That is an unfortunate certainty. And finding proof of that is easy.

            It does not carry a political conspiracy

            yes, blind and disabled people live good lives. That does not mean we should not try to avoid the situation if possible

        • a—

          I wasn’t discussing those unborn or never conceived.

          I was trying to speak for those whose lives might be damaged by the high minded principles of those who decide that those principles are too precious to be surrendered.

          though exactly what a walking protoplasm is I hesitate to ask.

          we must conclude then that no medical intervention of any kind must be allowed, in order to satisfy the image of what you think humankind should be.

          we have not extended of lives through technical inventions, only through the fuels that allowed those inventions to be.

          ‘conspiracies on a global level’ exist only because we have the media at our fingertips to allow them to exist.


          You have the means to concoct a conspiracy, and share it instantly with a million others.
          Just like a virus, that conspiracy will be shrugged off by 90% of normal people, but it will take root and spread in the other 10%

          Then bingo–1000 people believe your conspiracy, and spread it themselves, each reaching another 1000 gullible people.

          It must be fact—here’s a million people who say it is. And so it accelerates.


          Thus arises QAnon, and the rest—A virus just like any other. Which can kill people, just like covid does. 5 dead in the Capitol building, because idiots are convinced there’s been a conspiracy.
          That same virus is likely to spread, and more are likely to die because of it.

          You can’t point to QAnon as a fixed entity, any more than you can point to a ‘virus’ as a fixed entity.
          Both function in a same way, spreading fast with no central focus, leaping from mind to gullible mind with no fixed purpose or pattern

          They are both viruses.

          Choose your conspiracy–there’s lots of them.

          They do not actually exist, any more than they existed in the 18th c. But witches still died because of them

  16. pugsly says:

    NYT has been running anti free speech articles for some time about every six months or so. All basically have the same theme. Free speech is a threat to democracy. Here is the newest.


    Trump is censored off both twitter and youtube for 12 hours with both promising permanent bans for one more “infraction”.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      likely he will be permanently banned the afternoon of 1/20/2021.

      what’s he gonna do? Sue?

      • Tim Groves says:

        He should have dropped those platforms a long time ago and set up on alternatives such as Bitchute, Gab, etc., or produced Trump TV or Maga Media.

        But I guess he was too busy Tweetiing/

        • Jarle says:

          A personal web site with text, pics and video doesn’t even cost much. Why anyone choose to be dependent on twitter etc is beyond me …

        • Lidia17 says:

          I’m not saying this is the case, but a lot of Trump’s actions lately could be explained by a desire to expose the existing corrupt structures in full (rather than pre-empt them by doing an end run like a normal person would). He wants to reveal how bad they really are, so bad that it is undeniable even to the most normie of normies (Norm aside, of course). Look at what he has done to prove the fakeness of journalism, the unlawfulness of the CIA and FBI, etc.

          I don’t believe this is over yet. The GA runoff played out with its illegal methods so that the second confirmative round of fraud could be seen in real time. Otherwise, why not agitate to postpone the run-off to a later date?

          I see this also in his dumping a disorganized protest in the lap of Congress, which caused a significant percentage of anti-election fraud voters to vote in favor of the fraud. Really? That’s all it would take to scare a senator into voting pro-election-fraud?

          It seems counter-intuitive.. what would Trump have to gain, since it clearly mobilizes the establishment against him to a greater degree (were that possible)?

          There’s a Trump interview with Charlie Rose from back in 1992:

          Trump: Well I used to say…and in fact I think I said in my first book that…and maybe this was foolish but I really meant it… is that someday I’d like to maybe lose everything for a period of time to see who’s loyal and who’s not loyal and I frankly I found out a lot of things.

          Charlie Rose: And you found out who’s loyal?

          Trump: Well I tell you what. You can’t guess it, you can’t predict it. You think certain people would be loyal no matter what and it turns out that they’re not…and you just can’t predict it. It’s very difficult.

          Imagine you are as rich as anyone needs to be, and this is your final challenge in life—to suss out who are the traitors—and you have as many resources as anyone could rationally bring to bear. He might just be pulling a Fast Eddy and steering towards that ravine, except he thinks he can flick his wrist in the direction of safety at the last minute.

          He may not get to the bottom of the Swamp, expose the pedophiles and the Podestas and them such. It would be nice, though. Certainly no one else is going to do it.

  17. verysad says:

    Young woman in dc protest shot dead by police of some sort as she attempted to climb through a window. Police were about 40 50 feet away behind barricade. MSM refering to it as “shot in the melee”. The country burns down over a black mans death via knee on the neck with the dems and MSM support but this 90 lb girl was just “shot in the melee” . You know a tossed salad. Not shot by police. Not peaceful protester shot by police. The video of the moment of her being shot is at info wars. it appears the window that she was climbing through was quite small so only someone of her petite size could make it through. Even so it took some time and as she scrunched up her body to fit through the police shot her dead from 50 feet away.

    The protesters appeared to be just milling about, None of them were armed certainly not that small girl.

    I bet MSM doesnt have one problem with this murder. They wont ever refer to it as murder. We may never even know the name of the officer who fired the shot ending her life. After all she was just “shot in the melee”. Probably a racist.

    • Ed says:

      not a woman a 16 year old girl.

        • Tim Groves says:

          She served four tours of duty with the US Air Force, then she comes home and gets shot in the neck at a mostly peaceful process by a trigger-happy cop.

          Ashli Babbitt. Remember her name. The MSM certainly won’t.

          • Robert Firth says:

            Tim, the pessimist in me says she will be remembered in the same way Franz Ferdinand is remembered. As I said in a previous post, we are watching the fall of the Republic.

            That shot was terrorism; the next will announce the resistance.

            • FF was delivered to Princip by a CZECH driver. the Czechs treated the driver as some kind of national hero, although the Nazis later destroyed all trace of his family and existence.

            • Ed says:

              Robert, I am glad you understand the meaning of what happened.

            • Kulm, there were quite different opinions about FF’s trip towards boiling Balkans in the Austrian high command at that point.. even not travelling in his original designated vehicle.. etc.

              Not sure about the ethnicity role of a driver delivering to crossfire on purpose, that’s quite wild and makes very little sense, because FF had been residing mostly on his estates in Bohemian part of the empire, hence perhaps picking up his security detail accordingly. His spouse came from old regional nobility but deemed not good enough for the old prick emperor (despite even DE & RU court favorable interventions for her) so FF even had to sign papers disqualifying own children from the future crown. Also FF argued for federalist reforms pre-war.

              And if you recall “Mayerling” – FF was certainly not the first or second in line for the succession (like ~4th), hence a bit of an outcast to many players int & domestic when the war was getting closer.

    • Tiom Groves says:

      Thanks for this comment.

      This murder is actually fortuitous for the MSM as it is one more thing they can blame on Trump, and CNN-watchers like Norman will lap it up.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Eye witness report on how the young girl was killed.

  18. Most people think Trump is relevant. He is not.

    After the August 1991 putsch in Moscow, no one talked about Gorbachev again. He was a goner.

    USSR lingered on for 4 more months before crumbling in December 1991.

    It is likely that a lot of regions in USA will begin to go ‘autonomous’; they won’t really leave USA but will be subject to their own rules, and Washington will have little power over them.

    Similar things happened in the Roman Empire , the Holy Roman Empire or the Turkish empire. There was still an Emperor, but he had little power over many regions ruled by local rulers.

    USA will break, although it will still officially be one. Interstate commerce will break, and the “blue” states will be separate countries from the “red” states, just like Belgium where the Flemings and Walloonians behave themselves as separate countriesmen.

    • I can believe that something like this (parts of the US going their separate way) might happen.

      The central government really has less and less revenue (energy) to distribute to the individual states, as its tax revenue declines. It has made more promises than it can keep. It seems like the states will increasingly need to fend for themselves, perhaps acting in groups with other states.

    • Yes, it’s already happening as “smart” industrialists are leaving Cali for Texas, which enjoys somewhat different law structure in terms of sovereignty. These biz guys are obviously about altering the politics there eventually as well.

      There are also other trends ongoing as discussed before, people moving rural in various vectors both cold and warm regions. As the these multiple mega trends strengthen, necessarily there will remain large voids of people unaligned and left behind. So perhaps more direct forms of slavery will make come back especially in the f-USA, not necessarily based on skin color this time around.

      I guess Gail put it even in writing in general terms few articles back as we discussed the process of balkanization coming to industrialized countries here on the forum for a long time already.

    • No One says:

      The level of complexity now is stunning compared to USSR in the 90s. Nothing works without computers, and we already see chip shortages since about 2 years, and serious supply chain breakdowns lately. It will be a quick breakdown of all systems when the tipping point arrives.

    • trump is most certainly relevant

      you prod bits of your body every day without concern

      then one day you feel a lump—you don’t call it irrelevant. its likely a symptom of something much worse.

      that is what trump is

    • DB says:

      I wonder whether any splits that develop will follow existing political boundaries. In the US, political views and values vary more between urban and rural areas, regardless of state, than between particular states. If the “Stop the Tires” movement (truckers not delivering to cities) comes alive again, that would show where the real division is.

      • I have sort of wondered about that issue as well. There are a relatively small number of highly populated liberal counties in the United States, and a much larger number of sparsely populated conservative rural counties. There is perhaps the need for some of the services that the urban areas can provide. If the economy needs to shrink back, quite a bit of the need for services (as opposed to goods) will disappear. Quite a bit of what is produced in today’s urban areas would seem to disappear. A split would seem to need to recognize the difference.

  19. Yoshua says:

    Everyone was cheering when the Capitol in Kyrgyzstan was stormed.

    Now they are saying that’s it’s illegal to size public property and that the coup plotters should be ashamed of them selves.

    • It is disturbing to see what is happening in Washington DC right now.

      I am afraid we are headed down a part of more physical violence, in the years ahead.

      • the rioters are chasing a mirage of infinite prosperity

        the don has told that it is there, but of course it isn’t

        so they need to vent their hate on the perceived cause of their ‘missing’ prosperity.

        all rabble rousers have used the same technique, the screaming mob hear their own screams of self certainty.

        there were no black faces, that I could see. among the mobs today, they kept well clear–but how long before they become a hate focus for all that is wrong in society there.? The USA is already 2 nations.

        They have to hate someone and something. The hater in chief knows this. So we have the focus of voter fraud. When that comes to nothing, the hate will not go away, it will simply shift. We can go back over the centuries to witness the rise of the mob.

        The business of government cannot be defended in a fully armed nation. So (perhaps) we shall see this as the point where disintegrated started.
        The threads that hold the USA together are fraying, because prosperity itself is fraying.

        The rioters see no future. So they want to create one. That too will evaporate.

        Trump’s followers saw themselves, the greed of their entitlement to the myth of utopia.

        Ive been saying for years that fascism is rising again. (and been berated for saying it)
        Trump would not be a competent dictator, but there are plenty who would be—and plenty eager to do the necessary dirty work—and in god’s name. Always the worst kind.

        This is human nature in the raw. We ignore it at our peril

        • Z says:

          Wow. You obviously do not live in the US.

          You have no idea why any of those people are rioting since you obviously are not there to ask any of them…..or did you?

          Claims no black faces in the crowds….lol

          What about the BLM marches that demolished statues and looted stores?

          Would you say there were no white faces in the crowds there?…lol

          Of course prosperity is diminishing….anyone with a brain can see that.

          I have to get a laugh at Trump being a fascist dictator…..this is a guy who is totally owned by the Banks and has a control file a mile long due to his indiscretions. (See his relationships with Jeffrey Epstein, Ghislaine Maxwell, etc.)

          No one is getting anywhere near the Presidency or any important positions in the US without being controlled.

          The US is collapsing most assuredly due to a failing system which happens to all empires, the US is no exception.

          There will be no fascist dictator that will take over the US and do anything meaningful, if you lived in the United States you would realize this.

          Most of you guys need to turn off the television and quit listening to the “experts”.

          • Ed says:

            How long before the nose turn up snotty city dwellers find their standard of living is going down?

            • Z says:

              If you want to examine it by looking at people losing their jobs then it is already happening.

              I work for a major university and they have been consistently shedding staff jobs since COVID started and now they are resorting to laying off 50 Professors which is almost unheard of. Our enrollment is down by about 13% if I remember correctly.

              Nearby is a well to do private catholic university that also is engaging in layoffs of staff and professors.

              Obviously, these are decent good paying jobs for the Rust Belt area that I am located in.

            • Kowalainen says:

              50 professors! Of how many in total?

            • Robert Firth says:

              Ed, I think in their hearts they already know it. Their favourite tony restaurants are closing for good; their boutique high price fashion outlets are holding fire sales, and the selling price of their expensive penthouse apartments is in free fall. Oh yes, their investments in the money economy are rising in nominal terms, but there is nothing on which they can spend that money except more stocks, just as their predecessors did in 1929.

          • I said—->>>>>

            I didn’t see any black faces—and still haven’t .

            they are rioting to claim a future that no longer exists. There could be 1000 reasons, but that’s what it boils down to.

            The BLM situation runs parallel to it. Their perceived future no longer exists. Their grievances do.

            Trump doesn’t have the ability to be a fascist dictator, but in 2024 one will appear who will.

            Ultimately the USA will secede into regions. And become dictatorships, almost certainly of the Theo-fascist variety. All empires dissolve.
            So no dictator will ‘take over the United States’—because it won’t exist.

            • Tim Groves says:

              When times get tough, the tough become authoritarian. But I suggest the type of authoritarianism will differ according to the culture and civilization.

              If we can get a handle on what type of culture and civilization the US is based on, it should be possible to predict to a certain extent what kind of authoritarianism will grow out of that soil.

              Historically, there have been major differences between European style dictatorships and the absolute monarchies or tyrannies of the Middle East and the Far East, the “big man” systems of Africa and the Ziggurat-building human-sacrificing sun-worshipping civilizations of Mesoamerica.

              Would you expect these “Theo-fasccist” dictatorships to be headed by the equivalent of Oliver Cromwell and Martin Luther, Peter the Great or Ivan the Terrible, Franco or Mussolini, Idi Amin or Robert Mugabe, Calligula or Nero, Suleiman the Magnificent or Darius the Great, Kublai Khan or Timur the Lame, Moctezuma Xocoyotzin or Pachacuti Inca Yupanqui?

              Or do you see Jerry Fallwell, Billy Graham or Jim Jones characters taking secular power among the ruins of the USA?

            • the ‘culture’ of the USA has been imported mainly from the cultures of Europe

              every nationality thrown into the mix over 300 years.

              as long as there was ‘plenty’ for everyone, the American dream delusion could be sustained.

              now the time of ‘plenty’ is over, and as I see it, the old emotional divisions of European peoples are beginning to reassert themselves–ie they want to grab what they can while they can.

              add to that the understandable grievances of afro-americans and the mix becomes volatile and toxic.

              this was the scene in DC last year under the threats of the BLM marches:


              the resentment is understandable and justified, when compared to what happened yesterday. such a contrast makes violent conflict inevitable, not just between black and white, but between everyone with a perceived grievance in any respect.

              The ‘white’ races think they have their colour in common, but that will hold only so long as their ‘lifestyle’ is seen to hold together.
              when it disintegrates, grievances and blame will appear from nowhere.

              Religion will be top of the list, just as it was in Europe for 1000 years, and that is how the USA will divide up. One lot of jesusfreaks blaming a different lot, and both blaming the muslims and the jews—again, just like Europe used to be. (and will no doubt be again).

              When the actual problem will be crashing energy resources, and of course, denial.

            • Interesting point!

            • Lidia17 says:

              “the ‘culture’ of the USA has been imported mainly from the cultures of Europe”

              I would say that the culture of the USA is that which (while still owing a great debt) was expelled from the cultures of Europe to the extent which they had become corrupt.

            • agreed

              that’s another way of putting it Lidia

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > I would say that the culture of the USA is that which (while still owing a great debt) was expelled from the cultures of Europe to the extent which they had become corrupt.

              I think I would be more inclined to describe it as overflow from high population density. That was certainly the case with set of my great grandparents.

        • The big issue is an energy issue. Energy consumption is not rising enough to keep the standard of living from falling. Young people especially find it impossible to obtain and keep an adequate standard of living. The central government has made more promises than it can keep.

          I agree that the threads that are keeping the US.together are fraying. It is a worrisome time.

          • the energy thing is always the elephant in the room, to over-use a well worn analogy.

            I’ve tried, but I’ve come to the conclusion that there’s little point. I’ve run out of walls to bang my head against.

            (which probably accounts for the dementia that has been suggested in here)

            maybe I should just ‘fake it’, and pretend to be like everybody else, that everything really is a conspiracy, that we are controlled by cabals of dark forces.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Just because you’re not paranoid, it doesn’t mean they’re not out to get you, Norman.

              The energy thing is a conundrum. If we aren(t going to be controlled by cabals of dark forces, we are going to keep propagating like yoghurt until we run out of milk. That is, unless Dennis and Keith’s ideas about the industrial development of outer space turn out to be more fruit than nut, if you take my point.

              If, on the other hand, we are going to be controlled by cabals of dark forces, they may be able to engineer a path to a new society with a lot fewer people, thus giving future generations of humans or post-humans a better chance of continuing to live as an apex predator.

              Quite apart from the satisfaction of being at the top of the pyramid, the urge to rule humanity on the pretext of saving it is extremely seductive. There must be some takers for that line of work. There is always room at the top.

              Do you know what Saddam did when he took over in Iraq. He held a cabinet meeting at which he called out names of one of his rivals after another. When each one’s name was called, the man was escorted out of the room and shot. The Middle East has a long history of rulers establishing themselves in this way. Richard III had nothing on these guys.It’s a very satisfying position to be in, while it lasts.

          • Robert Firth says:

            “I agree that the threads that are keeping the US.together are fraying. It is a worrisome time.”

            Gail, I agree fully with your analysis, but ave some reservations about the “worrisome time” It is worrisome yo me, with three children living in the US, and no doubt worrisome to many in the West, who have profited from their almost parasitic dependence on the “world superpower”.

            But I suspect to the majority of the world, especially the many, many countries ravaged by US imperialism, its fall would be seen as an almost unalloyed benefit. So turns the Wheel of Karma.

        • hkeithhenson says:

          “This is human nature in the raw. We ignore it at our peril”

          The only thing I would have added if this was a post of mine is the origins of human nature back in the stone age. Prosperity, a bright future, keeps war (and related social disruptions) switched off. When the future looks bleak, it’s time to kill the neighbors so people switch into war mode, spread hate memes, and are attracted to authoritarian, even irrational leaders to take them into war.

          Unfortunately understanding human nature doesn’t suggest how to make things better, although nanotechnology may make us very well off in another couple of decades at least in material goods.

          • you are quite correct in your assessment of human nature. A few centuries of relative prosperity (maybe much less) has kept it subverted in a broad sense, though oilwars show that it’s ready to explode at any moment.

            as to nanotechnology–you lost me there.

            I could have a house or even a warehouse, filled with ‘material goods’. (whatever they are) Unless I can find a use for them—ie an energy source to power them, they would have no ‘value’ whatsoever. Cars TVs washing machines are not ‘wealth’, they are energy sinks. We create an illusion of wealth by making more of them, ad infinitum.

            The only exceptions I can think of would be energy converters–shovels, axes and so on. But even those are useless without the energy resources to power them.
            And their ‘value’ would be specific to the amount of energy (food) that could be converted by using them.

            • Exactly! Too many assume that electricity will always be available. And that stores selling computers and parts for computers will be available. Peak oilers have assumed that oil will be available almost indefinitely, but at a high price. Without energy of the right type, a supply lines that really work, we will have major problems.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > as to nanotechnology–you lost me there.

              I can’t help a lot there, except to suggest reading Engines of Creation (1986).

              The effects are similar to having seeds that grow anything you want.

              The world is full of living things, which shows that nanotech is allowed by the rules of the universe. As to when, can’s say, but Kurzweil thinks the mid 2040s.

            • have to tread carefully here, in case I inadvertently spread more rumours about knowing it all.

              I’m aware of, and broadly accept the concept of panspermia, which seems eminently logical. Can’t prove it of course. (Mustn’t OD on the logic pills, I might be accused of dealing)

              seeds are an entity of biology, so in theory you can ‘grow’ anything you want, or conversely given time ‘anything’ is likely to seed itself and grow under the right conditions, anywhere in the universe.

              What I don’t get, is the concept of growing ‘anything’ you want–ie hardware, if that is what you mean?
              Growth requires energy input– that too is a fundamental law of physics, unless there’s one I haven’t heard of.

              I don’t think any form of nanotechnology will circumvent that.

              After all, an embryo is nanotechnology. Without energy it cannot grow and subdivide into whatever species it is intended to be.

              In any event, as I’ve tried to point out before, it’s not the accumulation of hard goods that’s the problem, it’s acquiring the means, and above all purpose, by which to use them.

              If you can’t do that, then as with our current oil stocks, you might as well not bother. Things only take on value at the point of use. Before then, they only have a price.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > What I don’t get, is the concept of growing ‘anything’ you want–ie hardware, if that is what you mean?


              > Growth requires energy input– that too is a fundamental law of physics, unless there’s one I haven’t heard of.

              > I don’t think any form of nanotechnology will circumvent that.

              It will not, but the energy required is modest. The big problem is the construction released waste heat from making chemical bonds. If you are not in a hurry, this isn’t a problem. It is something I mentioned in passing in “the clinic seed.” Major repairs on a human for example will take days to tens of days and the repair machines need to be kept from getting too hot. Cooled blood or a similar solution would work just fine.

              > After all, an embryo is nanotechnology.

              It depends on how you define things, but close enough for most purposes.

              > Without energy it cannot grow and subdivide into whatever species it is intended to be.

              > In any event, as I’ve tried to point out before, it’s not the accumulation of hard goods that’s the problem, it’s acquiring the means, and above all purpose, by which to use them.

              I think people will figure out how to use virtually unlimited material goods. Like a house that can grow or shrink. Going to hold a big party? House grows to the sized needed, other houses move slightly away, and over the week after the party, the house shrinks.

              > If you can’t do that, then as with our current oil stocks, you might as well not bother. Things only take on value at the point of use. Before then, they only have a price.

              What kind of price do you put on crab grass?

            • got lots of crab grass–being a know nothing gardener

              the only material goods I can think of, offhand, where we find an ultimate use for all we produce, is bullets

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > got lots of crab grass–being a know nothing gardener

              How much do you pay for it? There is no reason to pay more for a house seed post singularity.

              > the only material goods I can think of, offhand, where we find an ultimate use for all we produce, is bullets

              Sheesh. Who would want bullets in a world where they cost the same (nothing) as a cruise missile?

              Still, you might be right. When an old friend of mine died a couple of years ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_C._May the cops too a truckload or two of weapons and ammunition out of his house.

            • lol

              read the obit–your friend seems, well, interesting shall we say. Freedom to do anything. Didn’t Ayn Rand have similar ideas?

              assume crab grass is what we call couch grass

              can’t quite figure out how to hold up a bank using a cruise missile instead of bullets—but I may have missed something

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > read the obit–your friend seems, well, interesting shall we say. Freedom to do anything. Didn’t Ayn Rand have similar ideas?

              Tim was quite a character. He came to many of my parties when I live in the bay area. When I moved there, I met him at a lecture and he introduced me to what became my social circle.

              > assume crab grass is what we call couch grass

              It’s a grass type weed that messes up lawns.

              > can’t quite figure out how to hold up a bank using a cruise missile instead of bullets—but I may have missed something

              Post singularity it is going to be hard to have physical paper money when anyone can replicate it. I don’t know if banks will survive..

            • Bei Dawei says:

              Kurzweil also thinks we’ll achieve immortality in the 2040s.

            • imagine that

              doomed to comment as a doomster on a doom site till doomsday

            • Lidia17 says:

              Seeds that can grow anything you want as long as you can supply them artificially with energy and material. Sounds like a plan!

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          “The rioters see no future. So they want to create one. That too will evaporate.”

          so surely this is the future of the UK also.

          how soon?

          • that’s the big question

            at least most of us in uk don’t bear arms.

            But our baseline reality is that we are 64m people and we have to import 40% or so of our food, and require oil to grow the rest.

            We use trade to create the profit that allows our current living standard. That will freewheel for a while longer.

            That involves mainly to and fro trade with the EU…which we have decided to screw up. (make Britain great again)

            But the EU will itself collapse, because the energy input that created it is no longer there. (just like the USA)

            We, and they, can no longer afford the living standards we have got used to.

            Personally I don’t see us lasting out the decade. But as anyone here will tell you, I have been known to be wrong. (sometimes).

            • Plenty energy for Europe, their model for the near-mid term consist of the following pillars:

              – three ~new large connectors for Russian natgas bypassing Ukraine, now finalized (2x in Baltic sea, 1x through Balkans-Turkey)
              – renewables (incl batt storage for PVs)
              – coal and nuclear
              – trade with Asia

              That’s theoretically enough for decent run of ~2 decades for Green New Deal or a bit longer of Brown New deal. In both eventualities, the managerial class will be driving smaller displacement cars and EVs, and perhaps its upper layer even using some airplanes, while lower classes stay put using bicycles and rail (light and train) mass transit – what will help the impoverished docile would be msm examples of even faster collapse sequence ongoing in the 2.5rd tier wold locales.

              In reality though, not all unicorns and roses, it will be most likely punctuated by rapid de-layering complexity events, temporary blackouts, riots, etc., but still sort of suspended ~bearable pre-collapse, not total wipe out. yet..

            • The whole system needs to work. There needs to be enough energy so that those extracting the energy products can earn an adequate living. Supply lines and the financial system need to remain together. Citizens need to be able to afford to heat their homes. Somehow, the system must provide enough productive jobs for workers. There are a lot of parts that could go wrong.

            • Tim Groves says:

              You are at least a bit more optimistic than people like Guy McPherson, who don’t give humanity much chance of surviving until the First Sunday after Pentecost 2026.

              I’m going to be optimistic here and predict that the UK will outlast the EU, even if the UK has shrunken to the size of the Isle of Wight by then.

            • McPherson gets paid a better doom rate than me

              hence more precise doom dates

      • Kowalainen says:

        The herd is scary, right Gail?

        Stay safe.


  20. Kowalainen says:

    The creditor will own everything that isn’t privately owned.

    The value of the debt is imaginary anyway. The only thing that matters is the promise of interest. Once that is no longer feasible to pay, the (productive) infrastructure will then be sold off to the creditor in a fire sale.

    I mean, after all, that debt is just some numbers inside a computer. For example, a hydro power station is something of substance that will continue deliver electricity (interest) payments for quite some time. And by god, will it be defended tooth and nail by the beneficiaries of the electricity, which usually means the workers and corporations in its vicinity.

    If a western state as much as breathes going crypto or digital currency (default the old money). Well, you do the thinking. Venezuela should spring to mind.

    The next batch of borrowing will have some serious contractual collateral obligations on productive infrastructure. If it’s not already here.

    It’s how I’d do it. Fuck me, borrowing money to a bunch of halfwits with their backs against the wall of diminishing returns and inevitability of depletion. I’d like to have collateral.

    The alternative is of course hyperinflation, if nation states decide to print willy nilly without backing in the physical reality of energy, means of production and natural resources.

    And you know what, isn’t stuff getting costlier? 🤔

    Not much choice here, as I outlined above. It will all end up as a fire sale of all state owned productive assets, because those who control the means of production and owns the debt won’t tolerate BS from useless eaters.

    Then mass sackings and subsistence-UBI awaits. The end of entitlements and welfare programs. And that is the best scenario.

    Globalism has its benefits as well. Cant outmaneuver the capital by nationalizing shit going full bore GND Commie crap, circular economy yada yada, then you’ll get a virus rammed up your rear end full of bovine hubris plus inflation to make matters worse.

    Now the question is how much longer the make believe, smoke and mirrors will continue.

    • Dennis L. says:


      Without trust, cooperation, talents to utilize capital it is useless and worth less than nothing.

      I have given the example of the four or five wealthiest men in the US and farmland in three midwestern states. Even at twice average price, they would still have trillions left over and when they owned it could not cover the cost of crops let alone the infrastructure and the police/armies to collect rents, etc.

      With declining returns on investment, there are very limited amounts of capital one can use. Apartments don’t seem like a good bet, office buildings are not a good bet, large automotive companies, air craft manufacturing companies, restaurants, etc., the same. Malls stand abandoned in almost every major city in the US. Even formerly valuable castles in England do not sell for what they once did – hint, they sold in blood and guts.

      The capital will belong to those sitting on it, a banker cannot collect a mortgage or debt; it is not his/her skill set, it is not going to be done from behind a desk. If someone is sent out to collect the debt, that will be an interesting negotiation when they return, banker in a suit, enforcer in combat gear.

      If we are going back to feudal times, the earl, whatever supposedly never sent the peasants off to war, without the peasants the estate was worthless and couldn’t pay the army to protect it.

      We live as a group, we need each other, that will be come evident in the ever closer future – it might be now. Each of us will need a group, a modicum of mutual understanding, a simple set of rules(hint no sex with the neighbor’s wife is a good start), and a talent to exchange. No one has the time nor the talents nor the disposition to do it all.

      War is not peace and it seems to be a very miserable way to make a living.

      Dennis L.

  21. Ed says:

    Watching the display from DC I now see it is 100% show no substance. It will be president Harris. Unlimited money printing to blue states.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      I agree.

      today probably doesn’t change anything.

      Biden for a short time, then Harris.

      “be careful what you wish for”.

      they wanted it, and now they can have it, although they surely have no clue to the imminent irreversible economic decline which has arrived at their doorstep.

    • JesseJames says:

      With the Republicans we are going off the cliff at 90 miles per hour.
      With the Democrats we are going off the cliff at 140 miles per hour.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


        there are a few significant differences between D and R, and energy issues are probably the biggest.

        with D control of Congress, it is full speed ahead with Greenonsense for at least 2 years.

  22. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The U.S. didn’t import any Saudi crude last week for the first time in 35 years, a reversal from just months ago when the Kingdom threatened to upend the American energy industry by unleashing a tsunami of exports into a market decimated by the pandemic.”


  23. pickles supreme says:

    From Twitter: Obesity is the second leading cause of preventable death and raises individuals’ risk to complications from COVID-19.
    I guess “they” want to keep the useless eaters eating until they explode.


    • Kowalainen says:

      I don’t think the useless eaters need any encouragement eating.

      Kick back, let those smart ass bots sing the tunes. Spike it up with some POTUS shenanigans. Pound MSM and the alt right channels with confusion and contradiction.

      Watch it unfold.


    • Ed says:

      they are all black where is BLM?

    • pickles supreme says:

      I don’t live in the southern region of the U.S., so I don’t see as many obese/overweight folks of any color in my area. However, even though I’m located in what is considered a “healthier” state, the stats still indicate that around one out of four residents is in bad shape, which is nothing to be proud of.

      “Obesity is not a new problem in the U.S., where more than 70% of adults are obese or overweight, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”


      • hkeithhenson says:

        > “Obesity is not a new problem in the U.S., where more than 70% of adults are obese or overweight, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”

        What causes it is an unsolved question though. I have recent been looking at a lot of photographs from Los Angeles from 1939 to 1941 and overweight people were very rare in those days.

        What’s changed? Some of the theories are a side effect of antibiotics, cheaper food, and people getting less exercise. But teasing out what is going on is hard, and a lot of ethics committees reject experiments.

        • pickles supreme says:

          Also, the food industry, backed by cruds like Ancel Keys, began flooding their products with high fructose corn syrup, which is even more poisonous than regular sugar. Saturated fat, as directed by the paid-off nutritionists, became the enemy, while HFCS was increasingly being inserted into the food market. Here’s an excellent article:

          [Quote] John Yudkin, said the scientist, was a British professor of nutrition who had sounded the alarm on sugar back in 1972, in a book called Pure, White, and Deadly.

          “If only a small fraction of what we know about the effects of sugar were to be revealed in relation to any other material used as a food additive,” wrote Yudkin, “that material would promptly be banned.” The book did well, but Yudkin paid a high price for it. Prominent nutritionists combined with the food industry to destroy his reputation, and his career never recovered. He died, in 1995, a disappointed, largely forgotten man. [End quote]


  24. watching CNN from UK

    as we’ll soon be living in the Middle Ages

    Why can’t this election thing be settled by personal combat?

    • Robert Firth says:

      Good idea. Have Trump and Biden enter the Wood of Nemi from opposite sides, each wielding a naked sword. Whoever returns with the Golden Bough is the victor.

      • D3G says:

        If Biden were to win, could he find his way back?

      • in 2016 I forecast civil war as the eventual outcome

        this could certainly be the start

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          and the Ds desperately wanted to “rule” over this.

          good luck with that.

        • Ed says:

          Norman who against who? Sure there is plenty of hate but no clear targets.

          • each other I’d say–today hardly looked like a love fest.

            already if a member of government opposes ‘your vote’ it sure looks like hate to me

            the potus seems to be very good at it.

            he loves only himself, those who disagree become a hate focus. Seems that a lot of people see him (and his hangers on) as their saviour.

            gods and demi gods have always been and excellent focus for conflict—god is always on ‘our side’.

            hate is for those who have what you do not, violence the way to take it.

      • Xabier says:

        Each wielding a sword, naked, like true Greek heroes, is perhaps a more arresting image.

        I suppose Trump would have the advantage, as Biden would find himself with the sword in his hand and wonder just how it got there…..

  25. Tim Groves says:

    Looks like Pfizer vaccine is more effective than Novichok.

    The Norwegian Medicines Agency has announced that two nursing home residents passed away days after receiving the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine, and that an investigation has been launched into the deaths.
    “We have to assess whether the vaccine is the cause of death, or if it is a coincidence that it happened soon after vaccination,” Medical Director Steiner Madsen said in a statement about the deaths.

    He also noted that, because people of advanced age are receiving the vaccine first, it is entirely possible the deaths could be coincidental. Around 400 people die every week in Norwegian nursing homes.


  26. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    In four years, Trump has lost his presidency, and the House and the Senate for the GOP,” Marc Caputo notes at Politico. And “while Trump has a phoenix-like ability to rise from the ashes of his norm-shattering outrages, others just become ash.” The “blame game is already burning within the GOP,” he adds, but aside from Georgia election official Gabriel Sterling — who blamed Trump on CNN — most Republicans “are criticizing Trump anonymously.”

    “Trump is the cause of this, lock, stock, and barrel,” one Republican strategist told Politico. “But when you’re relying on someone to win you a Senate race that also lost statewide eight weeks prior, you’re not in a position of strength.” A senior Senate GOP aide, when asked why Republicans lost on Tuesday, said, “Donald J. Trump.” Some Trump allies pushed back, blaming Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) for refusing to hold a vote on $2,000 stimulus checks. The Republican candidates, Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, also took friendly fire.

    But many “top Republicans blame Trump for sabotaging what should have been two easy wins —

    Should have listened to Lindsey Graham 😂😜
    If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed…….and we will deserve it.

    — Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) May 3, 2016

    When Trump entered the White House, the Republican Party controlled the presidency and both houses of Congress. Democrats gained control over the House in an anti-Trump wave during the 2018 midterms and Trump lost his reelection bid in November.

    Now, the Republicans are on the brink of losing control over the Senate as well after Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) for one seat and Jon Ossoff (D) pulled ahead of Sen. David Perdue (R) for the other.

    That caused Graham’s old prediction of the party’s doom to resurface late Tuesday:
    Both from Yahoo News…

    Oh well, Now Joe Biden is free to let loose, flat out, out of control the New Deal…are you in or out?

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      I’m in! I’m in!

      Soylent Green New Deal etc.

      rainbows and unicorns and Democrats!

    • Joe Biden can’t print energy, unfortunately. Things won’t turn out well, whatever he does.

      • hkeithhenson says:

        “Joe Biden can’t print energy, unfortunately”

        He could ask the engineers. There are at least half a dozen ways to solve energy problems. Of course there is a lot of opposition from the existing players

  27. Kirk says:

    Isn’t the price of oil tied to the dollar? If the dollar declines in value, doesn’t the price of oil go up regardless of supply demand?

    • The reason the oil price has risen recently is the falling dollar. The falling dollar affects the prices of many goods simultaneously. It contributes to general inflation in the US.

      • Sergey says:

        Iron ore, lumber, copper these are all approaching their history highs. All of these also essential raw materials for world ecomony. And we even don’t have EU demand recovered. We may see beating all-time-highs next summer.

        • Kowalainen says:

          +shortages in the electronics/semiconductors industry. TSMC cutting the discounts on volume orders. Price hikes all around. Try sourcing a half decent power supply or a nvidia GPU of the latest version.

          Yup, inflation kicking in. Just wait until those $2k checks becomes the new normal under Biden.

          Serfdom and techno-feudalism, LTG scenario 3 [hardcore] here we go!


    • Minority Of One says:

      Crude has risen from about $40/barrel to $50/barrel over the last few weeks.


      • Friends of the [ triangle of doom ] for price of oil theory predicted decade+ ago another “spike” in price around today (but not higher highs), so this $50 could be the beginning phase, eventually reaching ~$75 for a brief moment..

        Then follows thermo-geddon, either in thermodynamic sense of freeze-collapsing IC or as mil exchange of the major powers..

  28. Somebody says:

    Gail, I will write why you are wrong for so many years. What is important is how much USEFUL work our civilization can done, not about how much energy we use. We can increase useful work while not increasing, and even decreasing our energy use. What is useful work is determined by free market. That’s why Soviet Union collapsed – they had enormous amounts of energy, but not enough useful work, because there was no free market there. When we have more useful work availble, then we can afford harder to get energy, and other resources

    • Kowalainen says:

      Where does this contradict what Gail is saying?

      Debt and cheap natural resources for sure can keep the redistribution and socialist engineering craze going for quite some time.

      In evolutionary terms that is the expansion into new habitats, with the “habitat” being an expansionist IC. Which naturally leads to overshoot and collapse if left unchecked, due to the law of diminishing returns in monetary and physical systems.

      The second stage is initiated as a curtailment and a social stratification, as you indicate. Being useful and effective in IC is the more brutal survival of the fittest in an already exploited habitat. As resources deplete, assume more fitness for survival. This stage will suck for most people.

      There is of course an alternative, that alternative is to leave the realms of earth and continue the expansion and exploitation off-planet. But I don’t see this happening anytime soon. Elon’s cute fireworks pieces isn’t quite enough. As long as energy and natural resources flow in the planetary IC (eco)system we are all right with expansionism, which is much nicer than the brutality of fitness optimality

      As I see it through my die hard evolutionary filter of reality, based in the 7 #Rules of Mother Earth. You are of course free to disagree with me, but then you’d be wrong.


    • Ed says:

      make the prols work longer and harder I think that is part of the Great Reset.

      • Kowalainen says:

        The law of diminishing returns apply to work as well. If not outright the Laffer observation. More time spent at work -> less productivity.

        I have never observed a good programmer feel good about outputting lots of code. The real coders write little code and ship lots of software. One dedicated owner and maintainer for each (sub) module. Known inside and out by the maintainer.

        Just look at the SolarWinds hack/malware. To much shitty code that malware easily can be hidden in. Plus corporate/guvmint America going all in on a single point of failure. The chauvinists going wild with the mouth flap and sales pitches. Rip it to pieces and open source it.

        There is only one solution. Going distributed with no single piece of information stored in one place as plain text. A cryptographically signed map/reduce system.

    • China had lots of coal for years. Buy it did not use it to make goods consumers could use. It pretty much stayed in the ground. That is why it was available for the world economy today.

      It does take energy “dissipation” to do almost anything. We need to eat food, for example, and dissipate the calories in it. It is hard to get around this. We need heat for our homes, if we live in cold climates. We need electricity to keep computers and other devices operating. We need fossil fuels to make solar panels, wind turbines, electric cars, and electricity transmission line. We need oil products to operate helicopters used in repairing these devices. We can’t really use less, without the system collapsing. Diminishing returns causes our energy needs to rise, even when we are not trying to do “more.” Your ideas are based on wishful thinking.

      • Xabier says:

        The capitalists of the 19th century chose not to conquer and develop China industrially as the standard of living of the average Chinese skilled worker was, in their estimation, ‘too high’: good food, solid house, well-clothed, etc.

        Hence the coal reserves remained untouched, to be exploited in the last desperate expansion of the system in the early 21st century, when technology was transferred to the region.

    • freemarketnot says:

      Is useful work outsourcing all of your manufacturing and importing 70% of your food?

      Is useful work supporting the lions share of the government debt by central banks buying government bonds?

      Can free markets exist when one of the traders can and does create infinite amounts of the thing they are trading without effort or energy use?

      Just asking.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The free market has determined that work is not going to get any more useful. Productivity growth has converged toward zero in all ‘mature’ capitalist economies since the 1970s and it has flatlined at near zero since 2008 – for 12 years, getting on 13. It is not profitable to implement further technology and productivity has hit its peak. Thus energy is only going to become less affordable as its extraction gets more expensive. That will further reduce the systemic profitability of the ‘mature’ capitalist economies, and require an increasing socialisation of the economy to countervail systemic unprofitability. Capitalism has had its day and so has the growth fossil fuel economy.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Sounds good in theory, however Arthur Laffer might disagree. Once you hit diminishing returns of taxation and borrowing. That’s the end of expanding the socialist engineering crazy.

        What can be done, however, is to continue the borrowing and then picking one of two scenarios:

        The state curtails its excesses to pay for the interest. I.e. sacking useless eaters plus ending the entitlements and most of the welfare state.

        The state flips infrastructure. That works for a little while, when kicking that can down the road no longer flies, see 1)

        Failing to follow it through and, well, we already know what inevitably will happen.


        Then it is a matter of sending people back to serfdom with UBI-subsistence and a life in techno-feudality.

        Keeping the taxation high while providing zero services for the productive, well, I’m sure countries with more and better bread and circuses will accept those people. 😳

        Watch it happen.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          Yes, I did not mean to suggest that a ‘socialisation’ of the economy (QE, ZIRP, bails outs, buy ins, subsidies &c., eventually the outright socialisation of the ‘commanding heights’) will stave off collapse forever. Rising energy costs will continue to undermine systemic profitability until the whole thing gives way.

          We are already in the stage of a ‘socialisation’ of ‘capitalism’, in which it is no longer able to function according to the profit mechanism, and it relies on state support of the ‘zombie economy’. Those tendencies will strengthen as we head toward collapse. An outright socialist stage is a real possibility, but it really depends on how long collapse takes.

          As you suggest, unpayable debt and state bankruptcy are likely to be locus of collapse.

          I was thinking about the very basics of capitalism the other night.

          Is there a inherent ‘contradiction’ between profitability and affordability on a _systemic_ level?

          The profit is had over and above the wages paid, yet the profit must be got in the sale that is paid for from the wages. That makes no sense. Clearly debt allows the otherwise contradictory system to function.

          Produce of the value of say 100 is made and 90 is paid as wages. The cost must be 100 for the profit to be made and yet the cost must be paid from wages, which are 90. Clearly the 10 must enter the system as debt.

          Debt is inherent to profit and to capitalism. Profit=debt on a systemic level.

          And yet debt must be repaid – the 10 must still come from somewhere in order to returned. It cannot come from the wages, which are 90 and which has gone in the sale. It cannot come from the profit without eliminating the profit.

          Economic growth is the solution. Debt/ profit is invested in future production and allows there to be more of it in the future, which produces the 10.

          Thus it seems that growth is inherent to capitalism – it cannot function as a profit and debt system without growth.

          No growth, no debt, no profit, no capitalism.

          So what happens when there is no growth? I suppose that the system then relies somehow on imaginary money as imaginary debt, which will never be repaid – what happens then?

      • Robert Firth says:

        Mirror, an excellent observation. For centuries, “progress” was based on the idea of more output without more input, by simple technology innovation. The spinning wheel, the loom, the windmill, the water mill, crop rotation, … the list goes on and on. These did not require new sources of energy, merely a more efficient use of energy already available.

        Fossil fuel changed our mindset: progress means more energy consumption, and soon more wasteful energy consumption, and an ever greater search for “free” (ie fossil) energy. Well, we are at the end of that road, and we are desperately searching for ways to keep using energy even when its sources are exhausted. That cannot work; indeed, it is making ever more inefficient use of the energy still available.

        • nope

          wrong again

          all the devices you mention existed for millennia—but they were largely made of wood, and were operated to a great extent single handedly, usually in domestic homes. (crop rotation excepted)

          a technology based on trees is governed by the speed at which trees grow.
          the population is controlled by the same means—ie no use building a million spinning wheels if no people get born to wear the cloth produced.

          Cheap iron allowed the production of a new form of cloth production in vast quantities in the mills of Lancashire in UK.

          Cheap iron most certainly did require a new form of energy, fossil fuel in the shape of coal, both to provide the iron for the looms, and steam power to drive them.

          Even cheap cloth couldn’t all be sold in UK

          but a market had to be found for the excess

          So they eventually flooded the Indian market with cheap cloth (I’m condensing this for brevity, I don’t need a diatribe on the sins of the British Raj—I know.)

          • Robert Firth says:

            It seems you have agreed with my analysis, and prefaced your comment with the word “nope”.

            This conversation is ended.

            • of course it is

              what other outcome could there be

              I sold your ladder

            • Tim Groves says:

              Robert, Norman has long been a gentleman and a scholar, but he has become a belligerent old curmudgeon of late. He seems to be looking for innocuous or trivial things to pick on.

              Perhaps the lockdowns or the inoculation or recent events at the Capitol have affected his mind? Or perhaps the first stages of senile dementia are becoming apparent?

              IO’M not a geriatric psychologist, but neighbor is a geriatric nurse who works at an old folks home who assures me that its a classic sign of impending dementia when a formerly affable senior citizen begins to get aggressive, rude and confrontational for no explicable reason.

              Please rest assured I felt exactly as you did that the “nope” followed by the broad agreement with the analysis being “nope”-ed was irrational, rude and un-called-for.

              The parting shot “I sold your ladder” was a second dose of un-called-for rudeness. Ending engagement with people who are being rude and disrespectful is a basic right, and I think you handled the exchange perfectly.

            • am still researching the difference between a numbing injection and an anaesthetic.

              My brain needs the former to deal with intellects of such high level

              (that way I won’t be aware of my inadequacies)

  29. Mirror on the wall says:

    Nigel Farage is going on about illegal entrants again.

    “In 2020, the official number of people coming to these shores via inflatable dinghies reached 8,500.”

    Well, 670,000 entered legally in the year to May 2020.

    1.1% of entrants were illegal.

    Do I care that 1% of entrants are illegal – not at all.

    The British capitalist state gets all the workers from abroad that it needs, and a few more get in. So what, Nigel?

    • Tim Groves says:

      Do I care that 1% of entrants are illegal – not at all.

      Let’s not make this all about you, shall we? What about that little old lady who had dog droppings put through her letter box that Enoch told us about?

      Recall the Hyskos “invasion” of Ancient Egypt, the ottoman conquest of Byzantium, or the migrations of the Goths, the Huns and the Vandals into the Western Roman Empire. By the time the Vandals passed through there wasn’t a single working phone box between Rome and Carthage.

      • Kowalainen says:

        The Romans for sure believed that those phone booths were fully operational. At least they were in their official lies (documents & MSM of the era).

        Besides, what’s the worry, they had all the dope and prostitutes. Life was all about good times and debauchery.

        Until someone uninvited started banging loudly on the gates. Oopsie, unchecked corruption and thievery eventually undermines the projection capability and intelligence gathering.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        Yes, the only ‘rivers’ a la Enoch was the flood of workers into the country and the massive expansion of the economy. UK GDP rose from $107.8 billion in 1968 to $2.85 trillion in 2018, a rise of 2548.42%. More workers allow for more GDP, especially as productivity growth has tended toward zero since the 1970s and has now collapsed since 2008.

        Enoch might have understood the mood of much of the country in 1968, which polls of the time indicate, but he did not understand how capitalism works and that his own TP was a capitalist state party that exists to represent the interests of organised capital. UK had lost its Empire with its protected labour pools, markets and resources, and it now depended on bringing workers in to expand the workforce.

        But the more the merrier. When collapse comes, it will not be because of an inflow. The expansion of the workforce is the only thing that is keeping UK GDP growing, now that productivity growth is completely collapsed, and is keeping the growth and profit capitalist economy from collapse. Collapse will come when that inflow fails to offset falling systemic profitability. Then there really will be much to worry about but it will be because capitalism has come to its end, along with the growth economy. Only inflow is staving that off.

        • A constant inflow of workers definitely helps growth. These people need homes. They need schools for their children. They typically include many employed adults and few elderly. They often will take very low-paying jobs others don’t want. This keeps the price of services low, and thus, more affordable for other people within the economy.

      • Jarle says:

        “Let’s not make this all about you, shall we? What about that little old lady who had dog droppings put through her letter box that Enoch told us about?”

        I missed that one, what happened?

        • Tim Groves says:

          Oh, that was one of Enoch’s most memorable anecdotes. He talked about her in his “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968.

          Enoch Powell’s infamous ‘rivers of blood’ speech at a Conservative Party meeting in Birmingham in 1968 marked both the end of his chances of holding ministerial office and the birth of an enduring mystery.

          In that speech he quoted a letter which referred to the plight of an unnamed woman pensioner in his Wolverhampton constituency whose life had, he claimed, been ruined by immigration.

          This, according to Powell, was her story: “She worked hard and did well, paid off her mortgage and began to put something by for her old age. Then the immigrants moved in. With growing fear, she saw one house after another taken over.”

          “She is becoming afraid to go out, windows are broken. She finds excreta pushed through her letterbox. When she goes out to the shops she is followed by children, charming wide-grinning piccaninnies.”

          The next day, Tory leader Edward Heath sacked Powell from his shadow cabinet as the debate over his speech and arguments over immigration reached boiling point.

          The country demanded to know who this woman was but Powell repeatedly refused to say.


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Grow up you spiteful Chav.

  30. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The food and drink industry has raised serious concerns about the new EU-UK trade deal because businesses face punitive tariffs on goods from the bloc processed at British distribution hubs that are re-exported to member states.

    “Industry bodies on both sides of the Channel have warned that the so-called “rules of origin” chapter of the deal effectively blocks existing supply chains…”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Brexit has forced some retailers to localise supply chains in Northern Ireland in a temporary move to bypass new customs restrictions.

      ““Hundreds of product lines” have disappeared from shelves in Sainsbury’s supermarkets in Northern Ireland, the retailer has confirmed.”


    • Oh, dear!

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        Yes, no more buying goods wholesale in the EU and flogging them back.

        And no more buying ingredients for food, or parts for other goods, and selling them back as finished goods.

        I did point out this clause at the time but no one seemed to take it seriously. UK now has to a produce a certain proportion of the actual parts contained in goods to be sold to EU.

        UK grows next to nothing and makes ever less. Most of our fruit and veg comes from Spain, and everywhere else. Some meat and poultry is raised here but a lot of that comes from elsewhere too.

        UK is cut out of service provision to EU now, including financial services, for which UK has a massive surplus, and only allowed to trade goods with EU, for which they have a massive surplus.

        And there will be no more hobbling together EU ingredients and parts and flogging it back. UK has limited and complicated supply chains now. UK businesses are in for a shock when they realise what the situation is.

        UK goods will also have an administrative charge, to determine compliance, up to 10% of the goods, which will undermine the profitability of UK sellers.

        The ‘trade deal’ was about as bad as it could have been – yet the TP press presented it as a victory. UK still wants a deal with USA but USA will make mince meat of UK on this showing. The bigger economy is in the position to make the demands.

  31. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Chad and several other countries are already in deep debt distress and more will join their ranks this year, given the severity of the global recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, World Bank Group President David Malpass said…

    “The African oil producer Chad may need a deep reduction in the net present value of its debt, and creditors would need to work with the country to find a viable solution to its debt overhang, Malpass told reporters on Tuesday.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “[Nigeria’s] Power ‘stressing out’ under unsustainable cash flow challenge:

      “Despite the intervention of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) to address the liquidity crisis rocking Nigeria’s electricity market, the sector continues to struggle under heavy debt.”


    • Debt is going to be a bigger problem in 2021.

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        Yes it is Gail, No free lunch…
        (Bloomberg) — Corn climbed to $5 a bushel and soybeans rallied for a sixth day, driving both crops to fresh six-year highs, as farmer protests and dry weather in South America threaten to further tighten supplies.
        Grain markets surged in the past month on adverse weather and as some nations moved to restrict exports to ensure local supplies. Argentina last week announced a temporary suspension on corn-export licenses, prompting farmers to plan a three-day January sales halt in protest. Dryness in the region has raised worries for corn and soy harvests, while top wheat shipper Russia will curb grain exports from mid-February to tame food inflation.
        The supply concerns come at a time when China’s crop-buying spree and bets on an economic recovery are bringing commodities back in fashion. Feed-grain demand in the Asian nation is swelling as its massive hog industry rebuilds from a swine disease, and hedge funds have a near-record net-long position across agricultural markets.
        “The dangers to global corn production are clear and present,” Rabobank analysts including Stefan Vogel wrote in a note. “Argentine and Southern Brazil crops are advancing into a moisture-intensive stage amid dryness and only intermittent rainfall expected. Yield reductions will heap pressure on a nearly maxed-out U.S. export program.”
        March corn futures rose as much as 2.2% in Chicago, with the most-active contract exceeding $5 a bushel for the first time since May 2014. Soybean futures gained 1.8% to $13.715 a bushel and wheat added 0.8%

        Mister Inflate will help out Mister Debt


  32. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The world economy will be exiting the pandemic weighed down by much bigger debts and increased inequality that could hobble growth in the longer term.

    “That was one of the memes making the rounds at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association that winds up on Tuesday.

    ““We have met every crisis in the recent past with yet more aggressive central bank accommodation and yet more leverage, both public as well as private,” said former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan. “The real question is: Is this a doom loop? Does it keep going until it is forced to stop?””


  33. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    WASHINGTON — The Trump administration gutted protections for migratory birds on Tuesday, delivering the second of two parting gifts to the oil and gas industry, which has long sought to be shielded from liability for killing birds unintentionally in oil spills, toxic waste ponds and other environmental disasters.

    The move, by the Department of the Interior, came a day after the Environmental Protection Agency finalized another regulation that had long been sought by fossil fuel companies and other major polluting industries: A measure that effectively bars some scientific studies from consideration when the agency is drafting public health rules.
    Lisa Freeman New York Times
    Last Minute Pardons are always a nice farewell to keeping Mister BAU happy and well

    • Xabier says:

      The Black Swan is a migratory bird – straight out of Hell – you just can’t kill off…..

  34. Tim Groves says:

    This is a long article exploring the possible origins of The Virus.

    The Lab-Leak Hypothesis
    For decades, scientists have been hot-wiring viruses in hopes of preventing a pandemic, not causing one. But what if …?
    By Nicholson Baker

    What happened was fairly simple, I’ve come to believe. It was an accident. A virus spent some time in a laboratory, and eventually it got out. SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, began its existence inside a bat, then it learned how to infect people in a claustrophobic mine shaft, and then it was made more infectious in one or more laboratories, perhaps as part of a scientist’s well-intentioned but risky effort to create a broad-spectrum vaccine. SARS-2 was not designed as a biological weapon. But it was, I think, designed. Many thoughtful people dismiss this notion, and they may be right. They sincerely believe that the coronavirus arose naturally, “zoonotically,” from animals, without having been previously studied, or hybridized, or sluiced through cell cultures, or otherwise worked on by trained professionals.

    They hold that a bat, carrying a coronavirus, infected some other creature, perhaps a pangolin, and that the pangolin may have already been sick with a different coronavirus disease, and out of the conjunction and commingling of those two diseases within the pangolin, a new disease, highly infectious to humans, evolved. Or they hypothesize that two coronaviruses recombined in a bat, and this new virus spread to other bats, and then the bats infected a person directly — in a rural setting, perhaps — and that this person caused a simmering undetected outbreak of respiratory disease, which over a period of months or years evolved to become virulent and highly transmissible but was not noticed until it appeared in Wuhan.

    There is no direct evidence for these zoonotic possibilities, just as there is no direct evidence for an experimental mishap — no written confession, no incriminating notebook, no official accident report. Certainty craves detail, and detail requires an investigation. It has been a full year, 80 million people have been infected, and, surprisingly, no public investigation has taken place. We still know very little about the origins of this disease. Nevertheless, I think it’s worth offering some historical context for our yearlong medical nightmare. We need to hear from the people who for years have contended that certain types of virus experimentation might lead to a disastrous pandemic like this one. And we need to stop hunting for new exotic diseases in the wild, shipping them back to laboratories, and hot-wiring their genomes to prove how dangerous to human life they might become.


  35. Tegnell says:


    Reply to a FOI enquiry:

    National Audit Office
    157-197 Buckingham Palace Road
    SW1W 9SP
    United Kingdom
    27th November 2020

    Dear Mr ………….

    In answer to your request under the freedom of information act the attached files contain the recorded deaths by year for England and Wales.
    Some years may be missing as they are under audit to ensure accuracy.

    YEAR Designated Area Total

    1998 Deaths registered in England and Wales 541,589
    1999 Deaths registered in England and Wales 553,532
    2000 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
    2001 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
    2002 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
    2003 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
    2004 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
    2005 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
    2006 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
    2007 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
    2008 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
    2009 Deaths registered in England and Wales 491,348
    2010 Deaths registered in England and Wales 493,342
    2011 Deaths registered in England and Wales 484,367
    2012 Deaths registered in England and Wales 499,331
    2013 Deaths registered in England and Wales 506,790
    2014 Deaths registered in England and Wales 501,424
    2015 Deaths registered in England and Wales 529,655
    2016 Deaths registered in England and Wales 525,048
    2017 Deaths registered in England and Wales 533,253
    2018 Deaths registered in England and Wales 541,589
    2019 Deaths registered in England and Wales 530,841
    2020 Deaths registered in England and Wales 485,564
    upto and inclusive of week 45

    The only pandemic in human history to make the death rate fall.

    So unless there was a sudden increase in the last 7 weeks of 2020

    Say 485,564 x 52/45. = 561,096 so an increase of about 5%.

    But this is ALL CAUSE, so how many have lockdowns killed?

    Also need to factor in the increases in population

    • TIm Groves says:

      Also, let’s not forget 2020 was a leap year, allowing for a whole extra day of dying, and that it was a mild winter, so there would have been less excess deaths from cold than usual.

      • Xabier says:

        It’s the damp wot kills in Merrie Englande, Mister Tim, aye it’s the damp wot does it!

        • Tim Groves says:

          Oh yes, I remember the damp—the bone-chilling damp, the rheumatism, arthritis, lumbago and bronchitis-inducing damp. And let’s not forget the rising damp that along with the wet rot and the dry rot makes British slum houses so miserable.

          Ever since I was a lad, they’ve been going on about how British houses were poorly insulated, and contractors have been selling cavity foam insulation, roof insulation, double glazing, etc.

          And yet half a century on, the UK probably still has the most poorly insulated housing in the colder parts of Europe. The Germans, the Scandinavians and even the Slavs are laughing at the Brits. Every winter it’s the same tale of woe.

          • Kowalainen says:

            It reminds me of the few days I stayed in Newbury on a business trip.

            The inn I stayed in was quite “nice”. To my surprise when I arrived indoors, it was cold. Well, that was weird. Until the landlord told me how to turn on the heater. WTF #1!

            Ok, fair enough. When in the UK, do as the Anglo Saxons. Heat on, warm and cozy. Next morning. Went on my merry way to the tech shenanigans.

            As I arrived back at the inn in the evening, the landlord scolded at me for forgetting the heater on as I was away. WTF #2. Am I in Europe? The confusion.

            No surprises that the moist and moulds will get out of control if shit isn’t constantly heated. Dew point and water vapor charts anyone? Moist barriers, no? Aww, fsck that crap, let’s keep on keeping on with the housing suck.

            Ok, then time to prepare for dinner. To the bath room washing the hands. Looked at the faucet. Two SEPARATE taps, one for hot, the other for cold. WTF #3. Yup, Sweden in the 50’s. Is it the same in the US?

            Yup, the Anglo Saxons can build houses worth a crap. Cold, humid, moist, moldy and inconvenient as F. Look, the whole North America, Russia and Scandinavia have no shortage of lumber and insulation materials. How about fixing the housing situation? Prefabs anyone?That could be a nice subsidized project instead of the silliness of wind turbines and solar panels.

            • JMS says:

              “Two SEPARATE taps, one for hot, the other for cold.”

              And that’s the way it should be. Two hands, two taps. Beautiful simmetry (and sound economics). Unitap was just conceived for moronites who can’t distinguish left from right. 🙂

          • a house?—you had a house?

            10 of us lived in a shoebox, (with no lid,) and lived in the gutter—and thought ourselves lucky having only to pay 500 a week rent, (each)

            then had to move each week when the street sweeper cart came along.

            • Tim Groves says:

              You had it lucky.

              We used to dream of living in a shoebox! 🙂

              Hot and cold taps? We didn’t get that level of technology until 1970. Before that, what little hot water we had came out of a kettle.

    • gpdawson2016 says:

      As Chussodovsky explains: the rules for proclaiming pandemics changed only weeks or months beforehand. The pandemic was proclaimed without any deaths outside of China. This was previously impossible but it could happen because of the change to the regs. Did anyone here know that? Michel Chussodovsky makes this very clear.

  36. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


    “Multiple air traffic controllers in New York heard a chilling threat Monday in audio obtained exclusively by CBS News: “We are flying a plane into the Capitol on Wednesday. Soleimani will be avenged.”

    • Tim Groves says:

      And I suppose these guys can make the Air Force stand down?

      This has all the hallmarks of a windup or, at most, tragedy being repeated as farce.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Right, they are really going to announce it beforehand.

      Most likely a false flag.

  37. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


    “Gottlieb cited experimental evidence from Bloom Lab, and explained 501.V2 does appear to partially escape prior immunity. It means that some of the antibodies people produce when they get infected with Covid, as well as the antibody drugs, may not be quite as effective.”

    make of it what you want to.

    • VFatalis says:

      New variants popping out of the blue just when vaccines are being rolled out. How convenient.

      Just some fear porn used to increase pressure on the herd and promote the miraculous cure

  38. Dennis L. says:

    Something that might be worth watching, 14-15 minutes. Elon’s predictions.


    At about 5 minutes has some interesting looks at solar energy. The rockets seem to work well.

    Network a series of homes and that solves the transmission line issue, charge cars and that solves the petroleum issue, maybe reconsider XOM.

    FWIW, there is a growing home industry of recycling lithium ion batteries, lately in Australia there has been a fire outwardly similar to that of Tesla in a backyard battery bank. Put enough of these things in one place and it is a great deal of energy, hard to put out the fires. Basically the DIY are a bunch of standard sized lithium batteries wired together – instant power wall.

    Elon has his own Fed, he prints his own money, paid in his own stock, up up and away in more than one way. He is solving problems in the real world, making things.

    One would think that China, Russia, France, England, or the US would be able to make rockets better and faster then Elon, yet, he is doing it.

    Satellites and the internet: he is putting internet satellites up by the hundreds and reusing the rockets as well. If wires become too expensive and Tesla owns the satellites, that makes for some interesting speculation.

    Point for OFW, focus too much on the cars and one loses sight of the other things Tesla is doing.

    Anyone here know about the recycling used Li batteries? Who is doing it and where are the batteries going? Perhaps not as many to a landfill as one might think. That one may be a sleeper.

    Dennis L.

    • Craig says:

      Do you have any further info on the lithium battery bank fire in Australia?

    • Erdles says:

      Elon has large contracts with NASA so not all his own money.

    • Jarle says:

      “Point for OFW, focus too much on the cars and one loses sight of the other things Tesla is doing.”

      Hear hear!

      In my view Musk is either mad or another one of those greedy power crazy psychopaths, either way I don’t trust him one bit.

      • Well, he started as typical awkward IT nerdy teenager in the 1990s and seemed as pretty obnoxious kid for a while, but at such young age becoming millionaire (providing application to Banks/Wall st.) grew out of it without hookers, drugs and bankruptcy knocking him down, which is no small accomplishment realistically speaking. Then had the 2000s intermezzo filling top management of his companies with family members, that was a disaster, corrected in latter stage. This guy evidently overcomes, works on himself, grows and matures.

        He thinks in leveraging systems, so developed low(er) cost orbital launch systems of various kinds, now to be utilized deploying affordable global net service. Proceeds from this subscription fee again to be poured back to his projects. Interesting ideas (not merely -exploration naive-) about why we should attempt to settle on Mars and beyond, *surprisingly not very different from general ideas discussed at this blog, e.g. bad path dependency of Earthly compromised defunct laws and social constructs..
        In the same vein companies left Cali for Texas, most likely not only for tax reasons.

        His car/EV company used to have a ~decade head start on major established car manufacturers, it was a niche market nurtured up. Now, when the big boyz had committed to it as well, still enjoying at least ~5-7yrs lead on them, which is stunning. Gigantic factories, robotized and vertically integrated, placed around the globe, soon to be in the million units volume produced per year. If we get quasi BAU extension of few decades, be it New Green or Brown deal, the upper caste and servicing elites will be surely driving his ponies..

        The above “synergy” was one of the core pillars for that insane stock price boost of past year+, as his other companies are not listed yet (but of great interest to go pubic), and obviously thanks to that massive FED print and global investors re-allocation at that time. It’s a historically unique story.

        * well, this could be his eventual undoing as swampers “neutralized” similarly bold individual mavericks of core industries in the past as well..

  39. Tim Groves says:

    In Japan, 2020 was an impressive year for road safety. Plagiarising from the newswires:

    The number of traffic accident fatalities fell to 2,839, the lowest level since comparable data became available in 1948.

    The number of fatalities dropped by 376, or 11.7%, from the previous year, renewing the record low for the fourth straight year and falling below 3,000 for the first time, according to the National Police Agency survey.

    “Various factors are believed to be behind the fall in the number of fatalities, such as improvements in vehicle safety performance and stronger crackdowns on traffic violations,” an NPA official said.

    The agency will analyze the effects of the novel coronavirus epidemic on traffic accident fatalities, the official added.

    Traffic accident deaths dropped in 36 of the country’s 47 prefectures.Tokyo had the largest number of fatalities for the first time in 53 years, at 155, up by 22, followed by Aichi at 154, down by two, and Hokkaido at 144, down by eight.

    The number of fatalities among people age 65 or over fell by 186 to 1,596, accounting for 56.2% of the total fatalities.

    The number of traffic accidents declined by 72,237 to 309,000.

    The traffic accident fatalities figure has been declining in recent years, after hitting a record high of 16,765 in 1970. The government failed to achieve its target of reducing the number to below 2,500 by 2020.

    With so few pedestrians and other vehicles venturing onto the streets these days, Japan is now a safer place in which to drive like a maniac.

    • Jarle says:

      “Various factors are believed to be behind the fall in the number of fatalities, such as improvements in vehicle safety performance and stronger crackdowns on traffic violations,” an NPA official said.

      Less money for petrol? Fewer reasons for driving?

  40. Tim Groves says:

    It’s going to be a big day in the Senate today. Perhaps a bit too big for Vice President Mike Pence?

    Is it possible that Pence is seeking a quieter life and so he will only play a minor role and pass the baton to the veteran Republican Senator from Iowa, Chuck Grassley, who is currently the Senate Pro Tempore, which is a fancy name for the constitutionally recognized officer of the Senate who presides over the chamber in the absence of the Vice President?

    Beyond that, will we finally learn at last whether we are to have an officially certified POTUS before January 20? In any case, there could be all sorts of fireworks.

    If you’ve been thinking that the election has already been decided, you might just have to think again.

  41. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    My News feed popped up this up

    When Good Governments Go Bad: History Shows That Societies Collapse When Leaders Undermine Social Contracts
    In societies that meet the academic definition of “good governance,” the government meets the needs of the people, in large part because the government depends on those people for the taxes and resources that keep the state afloat. “These systems depended heavily on the local population for a good chunk of their resources. Even if you don’t have elections, the government has to be at least somewhat responsive to the local population, because that’s what funds the government,” explains Feinman. “There are often checks on both the power and the economic selfishness of leaders, so they can’t hoard all the wealth.”

    Societies with good governance tend to last a bit longer than autocratic governments that keep power concentrated to one person or small group. But the flip side of that coin is that when a “good” government collapses, things tend to be harder for the citizens, because they’d come to rely on the infrastructure of that government in their day-to-day life. “With good governance, you have infrastructures for communication and bureaucracies to collect taxes, sustain services, and distribute public goods. You have an economy that jointly sustains the people and funds the government,” says Feinman. “And so social networks and institutions become highly connected, economically, socially, and politically. Whereas if an autocratic regime collapses, you might see a different leader or you might see a different capital, but it doesn’t permeate all the way down into people’s lives, as such rulers generally monopolize resources and fund their regimes in ways less dependent on local production or broad-based taxation.”

    The researchers also examined a common factor in the collapse of societies with good governance: leaders who abandoned the society’s founding principles and ignored their roles as moral guides for their people. “In a good governance society, a moral leader is one who upholds the core principles and ethos and creeds and values of the overall society,” says Feinman. “Most societies have some kind of social contract, whether that’s written out or not, and if you have a leader who breaks those principles, then people lose trust, diminish their willingness to pay taxes, move away, or take other steps that undercut the fiscal health of the polity.”
    “Our findings provide insights that should be of value in the present, most notably that societies, even ones that are well governed, prosperous, and highly regarded by most citizens, are fragile human constructs that can fail,” says Blanton. “In the cases we address, calamity could very likely have been avoided, yet, citizens and state-builders too willingly assumed that their leadership will feel an obligation to do as expected for the benefit of society. Given the failure to anticipate, the kinds of institutional guardrails required to minimize the consequences of moral failure were inadequate.”
    But, notes Feinman, learning about what led to societies collapsing in the past can help us make better choices now: “History has a chance to tell us something. That doesn’t mean it’s going to repeat exactly, but it tends to rhyme. And so that means there are lessons in these situations.”

    Reference: “Moral Collapse and State Failure: A View From the Past” by Richard E. Blanton, Gary M. Feinman, Stephen A. Kowalewski and Lane F. Fargher, 16 October 2020,

    • democracy is the child of plenty

      poverty makes it an orphan.
      (NP Law)

      Our ‘civilised’ existence really is that simple. It needs no complicated political explanation. The colour of the government makes no difference.

  42. Tim Groves says:

    Dr. Stefan Lanka, a molecular biologist and a virologist who doesn’t think viruses exist, talks about how virologists “invent” viruses that are just mental constructs.


    Dr. Lanka is obviously far from the mainstream on this issue. He wrote the following in his article, The Virus Misconception:

    “All claims about viruses as pathogens are wrong and are based on easily recognizable, understandable and verifiable misinterpretations … All scientists who think they are working with viruses in laboratories are actually working with typical particles of specific dying tissues or cells which were prepared in a special way. They believe that those tissues and cells are dying because they were infected by a virus. In reality, the infected cells and tissues were dying because they were starved and poisoned as a consequence of the experiments in the lab.”

    ” … the death of the tissue and cells takes place in the exact same manner when no “infected” genetic material is added at all. The virologists have apparently not noticed this fact. According to … scientific logic and the rules of scientific conduct, control experiments should have been carried out. In order to confirm the newly discovered method of so-called “virus propagation” … scientists would have had to perform additional experiments, called negative control experiments, in which they would add sterile substances … to the cell culture.”

    “These control experiment have never been carried out by the official “science” to this day. During the measles virus trial, I commissioned an independent laboratory to perform this control experiment and the result was that the tissues and cells die due to the laboratory conditions in the exact same way as when they come into contact with alleged “infected” material.”

    I would be interested in having Keith’s take on this, or anyone else who could point out why Dr. Lanka’s views might make a lot of sense, or not, as the case may be.

    • jlljhkkjh says:

      education bought and paid for political agenda
      science bought and paid for political agenda

      people with no talent or aptitude in their field use this to rise to the top

      facts are ignored. science is ignored. the agenda is what becomes the focus

      your not going to get confirmation from a talking point repeater

    • hkeithhenson says:

      “I would be interested in having Keith’s take on this, or anyone else who could point out why Dr. Lanka’s views might make a lot of sense, or not, as the case may be.”

      The depth of human’s ability to believe nonsense is hard to fathom. Scientologists, for example, believe they are descended from clams (boohoos and weepers) because they were gullible enough to believe anything L. Ron Hubbard told them. (I suspect that some of the nonsense, like Xenu were from LRH testing just how much silliness he could pump into them before they exploded.) I understand why people in cults act like drug addicts (See Sex Drugs and Cults article.)

      Denying the existence of viruses is on a par with denying the existence of trees or Tardigrades or yeast. I remember being fascinated by a Scientific American article in 1957 on the tobacco mosaic virus including electron microscope pictures. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobacco_mosaic_virus

      Tim, I would advise against being so gullible, but I suspect it is like eye color, you can’t do anything about it. The psychological trait comes from genes. I spent some time talking to a scientologist in Toronto who noted that the cult members were subject to a long list of MLM and other scams.

      As for Lanka, he has found a way to get attention that is as rewarding to him as mainlining heroin.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Thanks again Keith.

        I haven’t lost my life savings to scammers yet. And I’ve never even come close to joining a cult. But I do have a weakness for hard luck stories. So I know I have to keep my guard up.

        As for gullibility on matters scientific or medical, I don’t believe that’s the issue. I have not bought into the no virus or the no moon landings or the chemtrails theories, for instance.. I merely air some of the heresies in order to put them to the test—a bit like a devil’s advocate in the good old days before the world was round and when it was only 6,000 years old..

        For instance, a lot of people consider you to be gullible for believing in the possibilities of spaced back solar. It’s the same thing. You are not insisting space-based solar will happen. You are only pointing out its feasibility given certain physical and economic conditions.

        Gullibility runs both ways. We can blindly reject orthodoxy or blindly accept it. There may be as many charlatans inside the big tent as outside. We are living at a time when a virus is being promoted as being so devastating that we have to “re-set” the global economy in order to deal with it. That is what makes it legitimate to raise questions about matters viral in general. Most of us know next to nothing about the subject. We simply accept what we’re told by the scientists.

        That, I think, is a big part of why we are in the mess we are in today, and I also think it’s about time I got a more thorough grounding in virology, as I don’t currently have enough basic knowledge to have meaningful opinions on it.

        • hkeithhenson says:

          “For instance, a lot of people consider you to be gullible for believing in the possibilities of spaced back solar. It’s the same thing. You are not insisting space-based solar will happen. You are only pointing out its feasibility given certain physical and economic conditions.”

          After about ten years of working on the problem, I am still not sure it is the least expensive way to solve energy problems. It’s one of about 6 that scale large enough. Plus the technology around it is a moving sea affecting the cost. The falling cost of ground PV is in competition with space based solar power, with storage as synthetic fuel. At present, it looks like we can make endless amounts of carbon neutral synthetic fuel for about $50/bbl.

          > Gullibility runs both ways. We can blindly reject orthodoxy or blindly accept it.

          There is a third path which I try to follow, understanding. I am painfully aware that this path is not open to people who lack numeracy, logic skills, and a background in how the universe works.

          > There may be as many charlatans inside the big tent as outside. We are living at a time when a virus is being promoted as being so devastating that we have to “re-set” the global economy in order to deal with it.

          Where I live (Los Angeles), the people sick with from this virus have collapsed the medical system. If you are picked up by an ambulance, they have no place to put you.

          > That is what makes it legitimate to raise questions about matters viral in general. Most of us know next to nothing about the subject. We simply accept what we’re told by the scientists.

          I read or at least skim the New England Journal of Medicine, Science, sometimes Nature and the IEEE Spectrum. I can’t think of a time when I have been told anything by a virologist, but I guess you would say reading these articles is equivalent.

          > That, I think, is a big part of why we are in the mess we are in today, and I also think it’s about time I got a more thorough grounding in virology, as I don’t currently have enough basic knowledge to have meaningful opinions on it.

          The Wikipedia pages are one place to start. If you find something you don’t understand, come back here and ask.

      • JMS says:

        Dr. Lanka doesn’t deny the existence of virus, since he is credited to have found one himself.
        AFAIK he only denies that virus are pathogenic. Which to my mind makes lot of sense btw, since I know for a fact that millions/billions of virus/bacteria live inside and outside my body and i would not be alive without them.
        Dr. Lanka is famous for offering to pay 100 000 euros to the person who proves that measles virus exists. The only scientist who tried to claim the prize lost it in courts. since not even the Robert Koch Institute, the highest German authority in the field of infectious diseases, managed to perform tests for the alleged measles virus and to publish them.
        Why don’t you give it a try, Keith? It could be the easiest 100 000 euros of your life! 🙂


        • hkeithhenson says:

          “Dr. Lanka doesn’t deny the existence of virus, since he is credited to have found one himself.
          AFAIK he only denies that virus are pathogenic. Which to my mind makes lot of sense btw, since I know for a fact that millions/billions of virus/bacteria live inside and outside my body and i would not be alive without them.
          Dr. Lanka is famous for offering to pay 100 000 euros to the person who proves that measles virus exists. ”

          That’s not consistent or logical.

          However, measles is a rather well understood virus. I have not looked at it for a while, “Measles is of zoonotic origins, having evolved from rinderpest, which infects cattle” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles#History

          It’s been sequenced.

          Next paragraph down,


          German anti-vaccination campaigner and HIV/AIDS denialist[173] Stefan Lanka posed a challenge on his website in 2011, offering a sum of €100,000 for anyone who could scientifically prove that measles is caused by a virus and determine the diameter of the virus.[174] He posited that the illness is psychosomatic and that the measles virus does not exist. When provided with overwhelming scientific evidence from various medical studies by German physician David Bardens, Lanka did not accept the findings, forcing Bardens to appeal in court. The initial legal case ended with the ruling that Lanka was to pay the prize.[109][175] However, on appeal, Lanka was ultimately not required to the pay the award because the submitted evidence did not meet his exact requirements.[176] The case received wide international coverage that prompted many to comment on it, including neurologist, well-known skeptic and science-based medicine advocate Steven Novella, who called Lanka “a crank”.[177]

          • JMS says:

            If the measles virus is so “well understood”, how do you explain that the Robert Koch Institute can’t test it and publish the results of that testing?

            And how do you explain no cientist yet wrote a paper proving that measles virus exist and claimed the 100,000 euros. Shouldn’t be the easiest task in the world?
            This in my mind is what is neither consistent nor logical.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > If the measles virus is so “well understood”, how do you explain that the Robert Koch Institute can’t test it and publish the results of that testing?

              I have no idea. Don’t read German, much less legal German as in the appeals court reasoning that got him off the hook. I suspect though that he could issue the same weasel worded challenge for the existence of roses and not have to pay off.

              > And how do you explain no scientist yet wrote a paper proving that measles virus exist

              Where would they get it published? The editors would mark it as stupid and reject such a paper as contributing nothing to the expansion of human knowledge.

              Do you personally doubt that the measles virus exists? Or that the measles virus is the causative agent for the disease measles?

              How about polio? Or herpes? Chicken pox? COVID-19? I don’t, but then I remember being miserably sick with measles in the summer of 1948.

              Incidentally, measles is nastier than was thought at the time the vaccine was developed. An infection damages the immune system and increases the likelihood of dying from many other diseases for two or three years afterward. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles#Research I read the articles in Science when they came out.

              > and claimed the 100,000 euros. Shouldn’t be the easiest task in the world?

              I don’t know how much contact with the legal system you have had. I have had too much. The problem here is legal, not science or even common sense.

              > This in my mind is what is neither consistent nor logical.

              Call it whatever you want, like Alice, “Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” It is unfortunate that people believe so much nonsense.

              There was a statement early in the current pandemic that to control a disease like COVID-19 you needed either a smart, knowledgeable population or a complaint population.

            • JMS says:

              it’s unbelievable that you think that scientifically proving the existence of something is a stupid idea, and it would not contribute to the expansion of human knowledge! Listen to what you’re saying. Does it make sense?.

              How do you know if measles or polio diseases are caused by viruses if you are not even able to isolate the supposed virus? (Not to mention Kock’s other three postulates.) Did it ever occur to you that germ theory may not have the solidity that the academic-pharmaceutical complex claims to have? Apparently not. It had never occurred to me, either before 2020. And yet here i am , questioning EVERYTHING. Because i’m in the business of rabbit holes exploration, like Alice (you guessed it).

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > How do you know if measles or polio diseases are caused by viruses if you are not even able to isolate the supposed virus?

              That’s been done, many times, every virus you can think of. The Russians are said to have made 20 tons of smallpox, enough to infect every person on the planet many times over. Measles has also been sequenced. Comparing the sequence with rinderpest is now the scientists figured out as much as they have:

              “Measles is of zoonotic origins, having evolved from rinderpest, which infects cattle.[154] A pre-cursor of the measles began causing infections in humans as early as the 4th century BC[155][156] or as late as after AD 500.[154] The Antonine Plague of AD 165-180 has been speculated to have been measles, but the actual cause of this plague is unknown and smallpox is a more likely cause.[157] The first systematic description of measles, and its distinction from smallpox and chickenpox, is credited to the Persian physician Muhammad ibn Zakariya al-Razi (860–932), who published The Book of Smallpox and Measles.[158] At the time of Razi’s book, it is believed that outbreaks were still limited and that the virus wasn’t fully adapted to humans. Sometime between AD 1100 and 1200, the measles virus fully diverged from rinderpest, becoming a distinct virus that infects humans.[154] This agrees with the observation that measles requires a susceptible population of >500,000 to sustain an epidemic, a situation that occurred in historic times following the growth of medieval European cities.[89]”


              I don’t always trust Wikipedia, In fact, I fix errors there frequently. But I know enough about this subject to think the article is accurate. There are links out to the virology literature if you want to go read them.

              > (Not to mention Kock’s other three postulates.) Did it ever occur to you that germ theory may not have the solidity that the academic-pharmaceutical complex claims to have? Apparently not. It had never occurred to me, either before 2020. And yet here i am , questioning EVERYTHING. Because i’m in the business of rabbit holes exploration, like Alice (you guessed it).

              I read “Microbe Hunters” when I was in the fourth grade, going on 70 years ago. I have never seen any reason to doubt germ theory. I could be convinced that it was wrong, but it would take a powerful heap of evidence, which you have not presented here at all. If you have any, please put it up or a pointer to it.

              Thee are odd corner cases such as prions, which are even lower on the life scale than viruses. Guy who figured out that they are proteins that induce a brain protein to form into a lethal shape got the Nobel prize for his work.

              ” Prions are misfolded proteins with the ability to transmit their misfolded shape onto normal variants of the same protein. They characterize several fatal and transmissible neurodegenerative diseases in humans and many other animals.[3] It is not known what causes the normal protein to misfold, but the abnormal three-dimensional structure is suspected of conferring infectious properties, collapsing nearby protein molecules into the same shape. The word prion derives from “proteinaceous infectious particle”.[4][5][6] The hypothesized role of a protein as an infectious agent stands in contrast to all other known infectious agents such as viruses, bacteria, fungi and parasites, all of which contain nucleic acids (DNA, RNA or both). ”


              Fascinating work which I followed as it was happening.

  43. Tim Groves says:

    Here7s another tragic case for the Vaxed Lives Matter folks to hold “mostly peaceful” protests about.

    “The latest suspicious death to occur days (or, in some cases, even hours) after a patient received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine has surfaced in Portugal, where a pediatric surgery assistant in Porto (who was reportedly in “perfect health” when she received her first dose of the Pfizer vaccine) has died suddenly.

    “Health authorities are investigating the death. Meanwhile, scientists from around the world continue to criticize the European Union for its comparatively sluggish vaccine rollout, which only began on an emergency basis little more than one week ago.

    “The patient was identified on Monday as Sonia Azevedo, 41, a mother of two who worked as a surgical assistant at the Instituto Portugues de Oncologia, a cancer hospital in Porto. She was among the 538 healthcare workers at IPO who received their first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine last Wednesday. Azevedo had dinner with her family on New Year’s Eve, but was found dead in her bed the following morning.”


  44. Thou Shall Not Be Deceived says:

    fun with statistics!

    us population, 12/30/2018 : 327,533,037
    us population, 12/30/2020 : 330,765,573

    2018 us deaths, all causes : 2,839,205
    2020 us deaths, all causes : 2,913,144 (as of 12/30/2020)

    percentage of population died in 2018 : 0.87%
    percentage of population died in 2020 : 0.88%


    cdc 2018 mortality info link:

    2020 mortality info:

    census.gov population clock:

    • There is a lag in the reporting of US deaths. The deaths reported now for 2020 are not the full deaths. Death certificates will continue to dribble in for months. So you are making an apples to oranges comparison.

      • Mike Roberts says:

        Plus, there were no restrictions in 2019 but there were in 2020, making comparisons very difficult.

      • Thou Shall Not Be Deceived says:

        Do you think there are going to be significant numbers of deaths dribbling in before this is finalized?

        I very much doubt that.

        It doesn’t take weeks or months to tabulate deaths in America. It’s not as if we are talking about Somalia.

        Let’s face reality. Johns Hopkins also confirms this. The total deaths are not significantly different.

        I have also post UK numbers. The conclusion is the same.

        Just because the facts do not match your expectations, they are still the facts.

        • Tim Groves says:

          I tend to agree with you that deaths in 2020 in the developed world will not be significantly higher than they would have been without the Covid thingy.

          Whatever did happen to all those refrigerator trucks that were supposedly needed to deal with the overflow of corpses in Democrat-run big US cities? Did they ever fill up?

          Also, if lockdowns continue indefinitely, that alone is going to add significant numbers of miserable deaths due to starvation, suicide, homicide, drug overdoses, and just fading away.

    • Ed says:

      so about 32,000 deaths but due to what lockdown suicide, lockdown health care denied, lack of money due to joblessness leading to death by starvation, lack of heat, etc…

  45. Mirror on the wall says:

    Interesting, modern China adopted the development orientated ideology of Sun Yat-sen, the founder of the Chinese Nationalist Party, which ruled the Republic of China until the Communists took over the mainland in 1949 and it retreated to Taiwan. The CCP dumped Maoism for Sun after Mao died. Gregor argues that Deng placed CCP outside of Marxism but I would disagree with that evaluation; Marxism sees capitalist development as the prerequisite of socialism. Taiwan adopted a multi-party democracy at the start of the 1990s.

    “The forces of transformative change swept in behind Deng Xiaoping — and the changes wrought looked surprisingly like those proposed for his own developmental dictatorship by Sun Yat-sen at the turn of the twentieth century.

    “Not only had the intellectual leadership of the Communist Party been schooled in the ideas of Sun, but at the very time of transition from a Maoist, to a post-Maoist, China, that leadership also embarked on a systematic study of the rapid economic development of Taiwan — that unconquered, anti-Marxist province of China that, by that time, had established itself as one of Asia’s economic miracles.

    “In the years after the loss of the mainland to the Communists, the island of Taiwan, under the single-party, authoritarian rule of Chiang Kaishek, had undertaken a course of rapid industrialization guided by the ideological injunctions of Sun. Its performance was among the most impressive among the less-developed community of nations.

    “Not only were those around Deng early on familiar with the ideology of Sun, but their study of the drive to industrial maturity on Taiwan also provided the empirical evidence of what such an enterprise entailed.” A J Gregor, Marxism and the Making of China

  46. Ed says:

    Listening to speeches from DC. The statement is “we are going to fight”. Well that is fine but I would love to know
    1) what are you fighting for?
    2) what are you fighting against?
    3) how will you do this fighting?
    4) who is the enemy? China, Russia, the owning class, dem politicians, rep politicians, bankers, ???

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      is this about the “fight” to correct the fraudulent election results?

      if so, I hope the results are corrected.

      tomorrow January 6, 2021 is the day for Congress to certify the election results.

      it could be a minor day in American history or, small chance, the results indeed will be corrected, in which case it will be one of the most unusual days in American history.

      the decision is not a world changer, but there is some short term significance.

      • Ed says:

        The ruling class will not rule against Trump with two million Trump supporters in town. They will form a study commission that will report in ten days long after the dirty people have gone home.

      • Mike Roberts says:

        By “corrected”, do you mean to a result that you prefer, or do you have some inside information on how many votes were actually cast for which candidate in every state and DC? The thing is, I read so many comments, including from Trump himself, about the real result but how do any of them actually know what that is? Chances are they don’t even though they may have a hunch or a belief in the result being “something other than what was certified”.

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          a few weeks back I wrote that it “seemed” that there was sufficient voter fraud which gave Biden more electoral votes.

          a commenter then added that he knew it was fraud, and that he was highly trained in statistics. True? We will never know.

          that’s one of many dozens of anecdotal supports that I have seen for the view of massive voter fraud.

          but yes, we all are here with no direct contact with any of the ballots and machines and counting efforts.

          I think the MSM wants you to believe that Biden won without fraud.

          oh wait.

          it “seems” like the MSM wants you to believe them.