There are a huge number of people doing energy modeling. In my opinion, nearly all of them are going astray in their modeling because they don’t understand how the economy really operates.
The modeling that comes closest to being correct is that which underlies the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others. This modeling was based on physical quantities of resources, with no financial system whatsoever. The base model, shown here, indicates that limits would be reached a few years later than we actually seem to be reaching them. The dotted black line in Figure 1 indicates where I saw the world economy to be in January 2019, based on the limits we already seemed to be reaching at that time.
The authors of The Limits to Growth have said that their model cannot be expected to be correct after limits hit (which is about now), so even this model is less than perfect. Thus, this model cannot be relied upon to show that population will continue to rise until after 2050.
Many readers are familiar with Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) calculations. These are favorites of many people following the Peak Oil problem. A high ratio of Energy Returned to Energy Invested is considered favorable, while a low ratio is considered unfavorable. Energy sources with similar EROEIs are supposedly equivalent. Even these similarities can be misleading. They make intermittent wind and solar appear far more helpful than they really are.
Other modeling, such as that by oil companies, is equally wrong. Their modeling tends to make future fossil fuel supplies look far more available than they really are.
This is all related to a talk I plan to give to energy researchers later in February. So far, all that is pinned down is the Summary, which I reproduce here as Section [1], below.
[1] Summary: The economy is approaching near-term collapse, not peak oil. The result is quite different.
The way a person views the world economy makes a huge difference in how one models it. A big issue is how connected the various parts of the economy are. Early researchers assumed that oil was the key energy product; if it were possible to find suitable substitutes for oil, the danger of exhaustion of oil resources could be delayed almost indefinitely.
In fact, the operation of the world economy is controlled by the laws of physics. All parts are tightly linked. The problem of diminishing returns affects far more than oil supply; it affects coal, natural gas, mineral extraction in general, fresh water production and food production. Based on the work of Joseph Tainter, we also know that added complexity is also subject to diminishing returns.
When a person models how the system works, it becomes apparent that as increasing complexity is added to the system, the portion of the economic output that can be returned to non-elite workers as goods and services drops dramatically. This leads to rising wage disparity as increasing complexity is added to the economy. As the economy approaches limits, rising wage disparity indirectly leads to a tendency toward low prices for oil and other commodities because a growing number of non-elite workers are unable to afford homes, cars and even proper nutrition.
A second effect of added complexity is growing use of long-lasting goods available through technology. Many of these long-lasting goods are only affordable with financial time-shifting devices such as loans or the sale of shares of stock. As non-elite workers become increasingly unable to afford the output of the economy, these time-shifting devices provide a way to raise demand (and thus prices) for commodities of all types, including oil. These time-shifting devices are subject to manipulation by central banks, within limits.
Standard calculations of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) ignore the fact that added complexity tends to have a very detrimental impact on the economy because of the diminishing returns it produces. To correct for this, today’s EROEI calculations should only be used to compare energy systems with similar complexity. The least complex energy systems are based on burned biomass and power from animals. Fossil fuels represent a step upward in complexity, but they still can be stored until their use is required. Intermittent renewables are far ahead of fossil fuels in terms complexity: they require sophisticated systems of storage and distribution and therefore cannot be considered equivalent to oil or dispatchable electricity.
The lack of understanding of how the economy really works has led to the failure to understand several important points:
(i) Low oil prices rather than high are to be expected as the economy reaches limits,
(ii) Most fossil fuel reserves will be left in the ground because of low prices,
(iii) The economy is experiencing the historical phenomenon of collapse, rather than peak oil, and
(iv) If the economy is not to collapse, we need energy sources providing a larger quantity of net energy per capita to offset diminishing returns.
[2] The world’s energy problem, as commonly understood by researchers today
It is my observation that many researchers believe that we humans are in charge of what happens with future fossil fuel extraction, or with choosing to substitute intermittent renewables for fossil fuels. They generally do not see any problem with “running out” in the near future. If running out were imminent, the problem would likely be announced by spiking prices.
In the predominant view, the amount of future fossil fuels available depends upon the quantity of energy resources that can be extracted with available technology. Thus, a proper estimate of the resources that can be extracted is needed. Oil seems to be in shortest supply based on its reserve estimates and the vast benefits it provides to society. Thus, it is commonly believed that oil production will “peak” and begin to decline first, before coal and natural gas.
In this view, demand is something that we never need to worry about because energy, and especially oil, is a necessity. People will choose energy over other products because they will pay whatever is necessary to have adequate energy supplies. As a result, oil and other energy prices will rise almost endlessly, allowing much more to be extracted. These higher prices will also enable higher cost intermittent electricity to be substituted for today’s fossil fuels.
A huge amount of additional fossil fuels can be extracted, according to those who are primarily concerned about loss of biodiversity and climate change. Those who analyze EROEI tend to believe that falling EROEI will limit the quantity of future fossil fuels extracted to a smaller total extracted amount. Because of this, energy from additional sources, such as intermittent wind and solar, will be required to meet the total energy demand of society.
The focus of EROEI studies is on whether the EROEI of a given proposed substitution is, in some sense, high enough to add energy to the economy. The calculation of EROEI makes no distinction between energy available only through highly complex systems and energy available from less complex systems.
EROEI researchers, or perhaps those who rely on the indications of EROEI researchers, seem to believe that the energy needs of economies are flexible within a very wide range. Thus, an economy can shrink its energy consumption without a particularly dire impact.
[3] The real story seems to be that the adverse outcome we are reaching is collapse, not peak oil. The economy is a self-organizing system powered by energy. This makes it behave in very unexpected ways.
[3a] The economy is tightly connected by the laws of physics.
Energy consumption (dissipation) is necessary for every aspect of the economy. People often understand that making goods and services requires energy dissipation. What they don’t realize is that almost all of today’s jobs require energy dissipation, as well. Without supplemental energy, humans could only gather wild fruits and vegetables and hunt using the simplest of tools. Or, they could attempt simple horticulture by using a stick to dig a place in the ground to plant a seed.
In physics terms, the economy is a dissipative structure, which is a self-organizing structure that grows over time. Other examples of dissipative structures include hurricanes, plants and animals of all types, ecosystems, and star systems. Without a supply of energy to dissipate (that is, food to eat, in the case of humans), these dissipative structures would collapse.
We know that the human body has many different systems, such as a cardiovascular system, digestive system and nervous system. The economy has many different systems, too, and is just as tightly connected. For example, the economy cannot get along without a transportation system any more than a human can get along without a cardiovascular system.
This self-organizing system acts without our direction, just as our brain or circulatory system acts without our direction. In fact, we have very little control over these systems.
The self-organizing economy allows common belief systems to arise that seem to be right but are really based on models with many incorrect assumptions. People desperately need and want a “happily ever after” solution. The strong need for a desirable outcome favors the selection of models that lead to the conclusion that if there is a problem, it is many years away. Conflicting political views seem to be based on different, equally wrong, models of how world leaders can solve the energy predicament that the world is facing.
The real story is that the world’s self-organizing economy will determine for us what is ahead, and there is virtually nothing we can do to change the result. Strangely enough, if we look at the long term pattern, there almost seems to be a guiding hand behind the result. According to Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee in Rare Earth, there have been a huge number of seeming coincidences that have allowed life on Earth to take hold and flourish for four billion years. Perhaps this “luck” will continue.
[3b] As the economy reaches limits, commodities of many types reach diminishing returns simultaneously.
It is indeed true that the economy reaches diminishing returns in oil supply as it reaches limits. Oil is very valuable because it is energy dense and easily transported. The oil that can be extracted, refined, and delivered to needed markets using the least amount of resources (including human labor) tends to be extracted first. It is later that deeper wells are built that are farther from markets. Because of these issues, oil extraction does tend to reach diminishing returns, as more is extracted.
If this were the only aspect of the economy that was experiencing diminishing returns, then the models coming from a peak oil perspective would make sense. We could move away from oil, simply by transferring oil use to appropriately chosen substitutes.
It becomes clear when a person looks at the situation that commodities of all kinds reach diminishing returns. Fresh water reaches diminishing returns. We can add more by using desalination and pumping water to where it is required, but this approach is hugely expensive. As population and industrialization grows, the need for fresh water grows, making diminishing returns for fresh water a real issue.
Minerals of all kinds reach diminishing returns, including uranium, lithium, copper and phosphate rock (used for fertilizer). The reason this occurs is because we tend to extract these minerals faster than they are replaced by the weathering of rocks, including bedrock. In fact, useable topsoil tends to reach diminishing returns because of erosion. Also, with increasing population, the amount of food required keeps increasing, putting further pressure on farmland and making it harder to retain an acceptable level of topsoil.
[3c] Increased complexity leads to diminishing returns as well.
In his book, The Collapse of Complex Societies, Joseph Tainter points out that complexity reaches diminishing returns, just as commodities do.
As an example, it is easy to see that added spending on healthcare reaches diminishing returns. The discovery of antibiotics clearly had a huge impact on healthcare, at relatively little cost. Now, a recent article is entitled, The hunt for antibiotics grows harder as resistance builds. The dollar payback on other drugs tends to fall as well, as solutions to the most common diseases are found, and researchers must turn their attention to diseases affecting only, perhaps, 500 people globally.
Similarly, spending on advanced education reaches diminishing returns. Continuing the medical example above, educating an increasing number of researchers, all looking for new antibiotics, may eventually lead to success in discovering more antibiotics. But the payback with respect to the education of these researchers will not be nearly as great as the payback for educating the early researchers who found the first antibiotics.
[3d] Wages do not rise sufficiently so that all of the higher costs associated with the many types of diminishing returns can be recouped simultaneously.
The healthcare system (at least in the United States) tends to let its higher costs flow through to consumers. We can see this by looking at how much higher the Medical Care Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises compared to the All Items CPI in Figure 2.
The high (and rapidly rising) cost of advanced education is another cost that is being passed on to consumers–the students and their parents. In this case, loans are used to make the high cost look less problematic.
Of course, if consumers are burdened with higher medical and educational costs, it makes it difficult to afford the higher cost of energy products, as well. With these higher costs, young people tend to live with their parents longer, saving on the energy products needed to have their own homes and vehicles. Needless to say, the lower net income for many people, after healthcare costs and student loan repayments are deducted, acts to reduce the demand for oil and energy products, and thus contributes to the problem of continued low oil prices.
[3e] Added complexity tends to increase wage disparities. The reduced spending by lower income workers tends to hold down fossil fuel prices, similar to the impact identified in Section [3d].
As the economy becomes more complex, companies tend to become larger and more hierarchical. Elite workers (ones with more training or with more supervisory responsibility) earn more than non-elite workers. Globalization adds to this effect, as workers in high wage countries increasingly compete with workers in lower wage countries. Even computer programmers can encounter this difficulty, as programming is increasingly moved to China and India.
Individuals with low incomes spend a disproportionately large share of their incomes on commodities because everyone needs to eat approximately 2,000 calories of food per day. In addition, everyone needs some kind of shelter, clothing and basic transportation. All of these types of consumption are commodity intensive. People with very high incomes tend to buy disproportionately more goods and services that are not very resource intensive, such as education for their children at elite universities. They may also use part of their income to buy shares of stock, hoping their value will rise.
With a shift in the distribution of incomes toward those with high earnings, the demand for commodities of all types tends to stagnate or even fall. Fewer people are able to buy new cars, and fewer people can afford vacations involving travel. Thus, as more complexity is added, there tends to be downward pressure on the price of oil and other energy products.
[4] Oil prices have been falling behind those needed by oil producers since 2012.
Back in February 2014, Steven Kopits gave a presentation at Columbia University explaining the state of the oil industry. I wrote a post describing this presentation called, Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending. Oil companies were reporting that prices had been too low for them to make an adequate profit for reinvestment, back as early as 2012. In inflation-adjusted terms, this was when oil prices were about $120 per barrel.
Even Middle Eastern oil exporting countries need surprisingly high oil prices because their economies depend on the profits of oil companies to provide the vast majority of their tax revenue. If oil prices are too low, adequate taxes cannot be collected. Without funds for jobs programs and food subsidies, there are likely to be uprisings by unhappy citizens who cannot maintain an adequate standard of living.
Looking at Figure 4, we see that there has been very little time that Brent oil prices have been above $120 per barrel. Even with all of the recent central bank stimulus and deficit spending by economies around the world, Brent oil prices remain below $60 per barrel.
[5] Interest rates and the amount of debt make a huge difference in oil prices, too.
Based on Figure 4, oil prices are highly irregular. Much of this irregularity seems to be associated with interest rate and debt level changes. In fact, in July 2008, what I would call the debt bubble associated with subprime housing and credit cards collapsed, bringing oil prices down from their peak abruptly. In late 2008, Quantitative Easing (QE) (aimed at bringing interest rates down) was added just prior to an upturn on prices in 2009 and 2010. Prices fell again, when the United States discontinued QE in late 2014.
If we think about it, increased debt makes purchases such as cars, homes and new factories more affordable. In fact, the lower the interest rate, the more affordable these items become. The number of purchases of any of these items can be expected to rise with more debt and lower interest rates. Thus, we would expect oil prices to rise as debt is added and fall as it is taken away. Now, there are many questions: Why haven’t oil prices risen more, with all of the stimulus that has been added? Are we reaching the limits of stimulus? Are interest rates as low as they can go, and the amount of debt outstanding as high as it can go?
[6] The growing complexity of the economy is contributing to the huge amount of debt outstanding.
In a very complex economy, a huge number of durable goods and services are produced. Examples of durable goods would include machines used in factories and pipelines of all kinds. Durable goods would also include vehicles of all types, including both vehicles used for businesses and vehicles used by consumers for their own benefit. As broadly defined here, durable goods would include buildings of all types, including factories, schools, offices and homes. It would also include wind turbines and solar panels.
There would also be durable services produced. For example, a college degree would have lasting benefit, it is hoped. A computer program would have value after it is completed. Thus, a consulting service is able to sell its programs to prospective buyers.
Somehow, there is a need to pay for all of these durable goods. We can see this most easily for the consumer. A loan that allows durable goods to be paid for over their expected life will make these goods more affordable.
Similarly, a manufacturer needs to pay the many workers making all of the durable goods. Their labor is adding value to the finished products, but this value will not be realized until the finished products are put into operation.
Other financing approaches can also be used, including the sale of bonds or shares of stock. The underlying intent is to provide financial time-shifting services. Interest rates associated with these financial time-shifting services are now being manipulated downward by central banks to make these services more affordable. This is part of what keeps stock prices high and commodity prices from falling lower than their current levels.
These loans, bonds and shares of stock are providing a promise of future value. This value will exist only if there are enough fossil fuels and other resources to create physical goods and services to fulfill these promises. Central banks can print money, but they cannot print actual goods and services. If I am right about collapse being ahead, the whole debt system seems certain to collapse. Shares of stock seem certain to lose their value. This is concerning. The end point of all of the added complexity seems to be financial collapse, unless the system can truly add the promised goods and services.
[7] Intermittent electricity fits very poorly into just-in-time supply lines.
A complex economy requires long supply lines. Usually, these supply lines are operated on a just-in-time basis. If one part of a supply line encounters problems, then manufacturing needs to stop. For example, automobile manufacturers in many parts of the world are finding that they need to suspend production because it is impossible to source the necessary semiconductor chips. If electricity is temporarily unavailable, this is another way of disrupting the supply chain.
The standard way to work around temporary breaks in supply chains is to build greater inventory, but this is expensive. Additional inventory needs to be stored and watched over. It likely needs financing, as well.
[8] The world economy today seems to be near collapse.
The self-organizing economy is now pushing the economy in many strange ways that indirectly lead to less energy consumption and eventually collapse. Even prior to COVID-19, the world economy appeared to be reaching growth limits, as indicated in Figure 1, which was published in January 2019. For example, recycling of many renewables was no longer profitable at lower oil prices after 2014. This led China to discontinue most of its recycling efforts, effective January 1, 2018, even though this change resulted in the loss of jobs. China’s car sales fell in 2018, 2019, and 2020, a strange pattern for a supposedly rapidly growing country.
The response of world leaders to COVID-19 has pushed the world economy further in the direction of contraction. Businesses that were already weak are the ones having the most difficulty in being able to operate profitably.
Furthermore, debt problems are growing around the world. For example, it is unclear whether the world will require as many shopping malls or office buildings in the future. A person would logically expect the value of the unneeded buildings to drop, reducing the value of many of these properties below their outstanding debt level.
When these issues are combined, it looks likely that the world economy may not be far from collapse, which is one of my contentions from Section [1]. It also looks like my other contentions from Section [1] are true:
(i) Low oil prices rather than high are to be expected as the economy reaches limits,
(ii) Most fossil fuel reserves will be left in the ground because of low prices, and
(iv) If the economy is not to collapse, we need energy sources providing a larger quantity of net energy per capita to offset diminishing returns.
Regarding (iv), the available energy supply from wind and solar (net or otherwise) is tiny relative to the total energy required to operate the world economy. This issue, alone, would disqualify a Great Reset using wind and solar from truly being a solution for today’s problems. Instead, plans for a Great Reset tend to act as a temporary cover-up for collapse.
Now this is just taking the piss….. surely they could have at least changed the terminology….
The Leak Said:
– Projected COVID-19 mutation and/or co-infection with secondary virus (referred to as COVID-21) leading to a third wave with much higher mortality rate and higher rate of infection. Expected by February 2021.
Feb 02, 2021
The dawning of COVID-21: As pandemic gets under control, new mutations pose host of new concerns
Scientists warn aggressive efforts are needed to slow the spread of COVID variants coming in from other places — or new mutations emerging from here
https://nationalpost.com/health/the-dawning-of-covid-21-as-pandemic-gets-under-control-new-mutations-pose-host-of-new-concerns
Weren’t your leaks predicting that Canada would be under Communist martial law by now? Or do we still have a few months?
they are already, but the MSM is not reporting it.
and spent fuel ponds have been blowing up all over the world, but same MSM.
http://www.tinfoilwebsitewiththetruthnobodyelseistelling.com
Why would spent fuel ponds blow up pre-collapse? How does that work?
Canada is now Kanada, the KSSR, under Fidel Castro and Margret Trudeau’s love child, if some reports are to be believed.
Here, I don’t like the sound of these Canadian Covid Concentration Camps!
https://twitter.com/randyhillier/status/1357523138020540417
Why are you calling communism?
The idea, as I recall, was that the Canadian government was going to promise its citizens a universal basic income–all their needs met–in exchange for giving up their wealth (what would become of it was not explained), and also for agreeing to receive the vaccine. Refuseniks would not be allowed to travel anywhere, and be increasingly confined until they relented. All this was supposedly leaked by a minor official of a minor political party, based on something told to him in committee. I call this story the “Protocols of the Elders of Ottawa.”
FE’s point is standing, as the leak predicted actual “reality” as clockwork so far. In fact, they mentioned reaching threshold, likely shift change around Q3-Q4 2021 into even freakier paradigm.. so we can wait and watch together, compare notes then, darling, lolz
So many “leaks”.
I think they are actually called press releases 🙂
Canada has martial law lite (movements are heavily restricted) — but the real deal will arrive in Q2… note that Covid21 is already in play …. so everything is on schedule….
I continue to taunt CovIDIOTS with the fact that the ‘leak’ has been spot on the money — but they continue to resist… as I said to someone the other day — so when martial law in Q2 — will that be enough to convince you that Covid is part of a master plan… and that the leak is a real leak… no response…
Again — how could this person have know of Covid21 + the February arrival …. way back in October… UNLESS …. the leak is real which of course confirms Covid is a stitch-up… the cognitive dissonance involved to not recognize what is taking place here… is epic.
Hey Norm — if you get a moment between lines up there in the Four Seasons — can you explain how this person knew the above….
The oceans of delusion and idiocy are endless….
1:47 PM (7 hours ago) Original Message ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ On Saturday, October 10, 2020 1:38 PM, (REMOVED) wrote:
Dear (REMOVED),
I want to provide you some very important information. I’m a committee member within the Liberal Party of Canada. I sit within several committee groups but the information I am providing is originating from the Strategic Planning committee (which is steered by the PMO).
I need to start off by saying that I’m not happy doing this but I have to. As a Canadian and more importantly as a parent who wants a better future not only for my children but for other children as well.
The other reason I am doing this is because roughly 30% of the committee members are not pleased with the direction this will take Canada, but our opinions have been ignored and they plan on moving forward toward their goals. They have also made it very clear that nothing will stop the planned outcomes.
The road map and aim was set out by the PMO and is as follows:
– Phase in secondary lock down restrictions on a rolling basis, starting with major metropolitan areas first and expanding outward. Expected by November 2020. Expected by December 2020.
– Daily new cases of COVID-19 will surge beyond capacity of testing, including increases in COVID related deaths following the same growth curves. Expected by end of November 2020.
– Complete and total secondary lock down (much stricter than the first and second rolling phase restrictions). Expected by end of December 2020 – early January 2021
– Reform and expansion of the unemployment program to be transitioned into the universal basic income program. Expected by Q1 2021.
– Projected COVID-19 mutation and/or co-infection with secondary virus (referred to as COVID-21) leading to a third wave with much higher mortality rate and higher rate of infection. Expected by February 2021.
– Daily new cases of COVID-21 hospitalizations and COVID-19 and COVID-21 related deaths will exceed medical care facilities capacity. Expected Q1 – Q2 2021.
– Enhanced lock down restrictions (referred to as Third Lock Down) will be implemented. Full travel restrictions will be imposed (including inter-province and inter-city). Expected Q2 2021.
– Transitioning of individuals into the universal basic income program. Expected mid Q2 2021.
– Projected supply chain break downs, inventory shortages, large economic instability. Expected late Q2 2021.
– Deployment of military personnel into major metropolitan areas as well as all major roadways to establish travel checkpoints. Restrict travel and movement. Provide logistical support to the area. Expected by Q3 2021. Along with that provided road map the Strategic Planning committee was asked to design an effective way of transitioning Canadians to meet a unprecedented economic endeavor.
One that would change the face of Canada and forever alter the lives of Canadians. What we were told was that in order to offset what was essentially an economic collapse on a international scale, that the federal government was going to offer Canadians a total debt relief.
This is how it works: the federal government will offer to eliminate all personal debts (mortgages, loans, credit cards, etc) which all funding will be provided to Canada by the IMF under what will become known as the World Debt Reset program. In exchange for acceptance of this total debt forgiveness the individual would forfeit ownership of any and all property and assets forever.
The individual would also have to agree to partake in the COVID-19 and COVID-21 vaccination schedule, which would provide the individual with unrestricted travel and unrestricted living even under a full lock down (through the use of photo identification referred to as Canada’s HealthPass).
Committee members asked who would become the owner of the forfeited property and assets in that scenario and what would happen to lenders or financial institutions, we were simply told “the World Debt Reset program will handle all of the details”. Several committee members also questioned what would happen to individuals if they refused to participate in the World Debt Reset program, or the HealthPass, or the vaccination schedule, and the answer we got was very troubling.
Essentially we were told it was our duty to make sure we came up with a plan to ensure that would never happen. We were told it was in the individuals best interest to participate. When several committee members pushed relentlessly to get an answer we were told that those who refused would first live under the lock down restrictions indefinitely.
And that over a short period of time as more Canadians transitioned into the debt forgiveness program, the ones who refused to participate would be deemed a public safety risk and would be relocated into isolation facilities. Once in those facilities they would be given two options, participate in the debt forgiveness program and be released, or stay indefinitely in the isolation facility under the classification of a serious public health risk and have all their assets seized.
So as you can imagine after hearing all of this it turned into quite the heated discussion and escalated beyond anything I’ve ever witnessed before. In the end it was implied by the PMO that the whole agenda will move forward no matter who agrees with it or not. That it wont just be Canada but in fact all nations will have similar roadmaps and agendas.
That we need to take advantage of the situations before us to promote change on a grander scale for the betterment of everyone. The members who were opposed and ones who brought up key issues that would arise from such a thing were completely ignored. Our opinions and concerns were ignored. We were simply told to just do it.
All I know is that I don’t like it and I think its going to place Canadians into a dark future.
Vancouver, Canada· Posted October 14
Fast Eddy, thanks for keeping track of the leak. It might be just a joke but it’s been surprisingly accurate.
What do you think of the further travel restrictions, military deployments and supply lines breakdowns?
I am starting to regret I have not partied more in previous years…
When that leak dropped I shared it with one of the co-authors of the Great Barrington Declaration that I have been in touch with since April…. he is an epidemiologist at Auckland U.
His response was … ‘That’s interesting… It is remarkably specific, such as “COVID-21”. I guess from that we’ll know pretty soon whether it is real or not…!’
I believe the leak is real. But I do not believe the leaker and others at the meeting were told the full story…. they were told only what they need to know to execute The Plan…. that effectively the end game involves a ‘great reset’…
Apparently that elicited howls of anger from those in attendance…
There cannot be a reset — we have burned all the fuel… so that has to be a lie… and I would think only a very small group of people within the CDN government would know the real deal
I remain wedded to the theory that Covid is a tool to create fear and control … with the end game somehow involving these ‘vaccines’….
It is simply impossible to create a safe and effective vaccine in such a short time frame … also as Mike Yeadon points out, why vaccine everyone with an experiment… why not only target those who are at risk of dying from covid… it makes zero sense to put this into healthy people… but clearly the goal is to jab everyone… including children … and force them to take the jab using these vaccine passports…
I have read that these vaccines can actually kill recipients when they have exposure to other viruses down the road (including the common cold)…. and that they act at a cellular level and are permanent….
If this is true, then is the goal to have us all die from ‘cytokine storms’ ….
Alternatively… do these vaccines cause viruses like Covid to mutate into a far more deadly form that wipes us out…
Impossible to know because the end game is known by very few — and they will not leak the plan — because they will be completely on board with it —- because they will understand the very hard truth that there is no future — the oil is gone …. we are all soon going to die …. and it’s better to die in a controlled manner vs a Mad Max/The Road on steroids scenario.
The Elders have my full support of whatever the plan is. In fact if they need me to do a public service announcement on the Tee Vee endorsing their plan, I will make time and do my part …
I will try not to burst out laughing as I inform 8B DelusiSTANIS that Mother’s cancer is about to be eradicated…. (most of them won’t get it)
We don’t know the end game scope and scale of the plan for sure.
It could range from another “mere” delaying maneuver on one hand to full scale and rapid depop unleash on the other as you suggested. The former might focus on the unfunded pension – healthcare outlays for several next decays and related resources for grabs, which could be thus redeployed somewhere else ala last ditch effort of wunder waffen.. But the latter option meaning all out global depop strike across all generations before ~2025-30 seems too ambitious..
Perhaps, it’s meant to be logically structured as multi tier program with following lock-in steps. And if the process goes smoothly through early rounds, why not run it as far as possible.. in their eyes that’s all jolly good..
Well, kick back, watch what happens. Let the experiment run its course. Once the chips are down with people succumbing left right and center, I guess then the vaxx won’t be mandatory anymore. At least bullets will be flown against the herders and whatever is left of the bamboozled herd.
Yeah, why vaxx people with abysmal probability of dying from covid?
Specially, specially, indeed suuuuuper specially since Taiwan got 7 covid deaths. No vaxx effort there as far I am aware of, no mandatory face mask requirement. Basically BAU going through its paces with TSMC and UMC going full bore with the planetary digitalization effort.
The real deal is of course relentless vigilance toward *any* pandemic, covid, flu, cold, whatever, contact tracing and mandatory isolation to quench any outbreak in perpetuity.
The vaxx and face masks in the west, what a total and utter BS. 💩
The BBCs latest splendid piece of propaganda suggesting it might soon be all over:
Covid: Five reasons to be (cautiously) hopeful
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55941234
I doubt it. Not part of the plan.
Talking of propaganda in the UK MSM, a couple of weeks ago it was reported by Sky News and the Daily Mail that Captain Tom had received his covid-19 vaccination along with the Queen and Prince Phillip (yeah, right). For non-UK residents who don’t know, Captain Tom is, or rather was, a 100 year old guy who raised money in the past year for our National Health Service.) Inconveniently, Captain Tom died in hospital a few days ago of “pneumonia and covid-19”.
The sky news report on Captain Tom’s vaccination has now disappeared and the Daily Mail article has now had Captain Tom’s name removed from the list of notables to received the vaccine.
Whether Captain Tom was ever vaccinated in the first place and whether the vaccination was a factor in his death we will never know, but what is known is that the MSM was lying at some point.
Thanks for that, Yorchichan. Two weeks seems to be a benchmark for post-Covid vaccine deaths.
Last month, Hank Aaron’s death came 17 days after his TV vaccination, although any link with the jab has been fiercely denied.
And there was this case from Florida: “A ‘healthy’ doctor died two weeks after getting a COVID-19 vaccine; CDC is investigating why”
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-miami-doctor-vaccine-death-20210107-afzysvqqjbgwnetcy5v6ec62py-story.html
“100 year old guy who raised money in the past year for our National Health Service”
Almost £40 million. He was hardly off our TV screens for weeks, so every body knew who he was.
I presume no-one in the MSM dared make the connection between his receiving the vax then dying a few days later. In fact, according to Yorchichan’s investigations, they did the opposite. Nothing to be concerned about?
Enough said.
The old bugger was shamelessly exploited – one hopes that he never realised it. RIP.
Seems the plan is to continue to offer hope… then repeatedly smash hope with new and more extreme lockdowns… the longer this goes on the more people will be willing to do anything to eradicate the Covid flu … including taking an experimental vaccine…. and for those who still refuse — there is coercion in the form of Covid Passports….
Give this a little time to run and the only people who won’t have the Trojan Horse injected into them will be pariahs who won’t be able to leave their homes without being attacked… or who will eventually be forced into quarantine facilities because they are ‘a danger to everyone’…. which makes no sense because everyone will be vaccinated to immune to Covid flu… but humans are stooopid beasts and the incoherence of that will not occur to them as they stone to death the dangerous heretics.
Yes, this is not exactly the first rodeo for TPTB.. vs gullible pop.
However, these “cunning plans” and agendas usually had to twist and change, evolve or even retreat given various unforeseen difficulties (and or eventually non) cooperating parties along the way.
Nevertheless, it would be foolish to expect it stop that just now (after mere year), there are likely several acts in this drama before us.
A bit of sabotage here and there, factory fires. Hacking efforts and what have you for sure quickly make it into a delightful expression of chaos.
Lost vaccines, missing doses, mishaps, people dying from the jabs within a few days, etc.
A nice little farce for sure. Too many halfwits involved in it would be my guess. It’s tricky to include stupid into the plan. Muppets herding the bamboozled. What could possibly go wrong?
🤣👍
If a summing up of this article is possible, (a lot of different threads to gather up there) it would be that we do not and cannot control our collective actions.
It sums up our problems well, but doesn’t deal with the main one, though I doubt if anyone could.
Which is that there is a collective denial that a problem exists at all. (whether that’s energy, climate change or population–the big three) Those three are interlinked, and form the catastrophic base for everything else. Including the current Covid one.
People react with emotions, they avoid reality.
They deny that which does not fit their version of truth.
They want the good life to go on forever. Collapse there may be, but please not in my lifetime, and let it happen somewhere else. As far away as possible.
So politicians promise that. And by so doing, feed the ‘great denial’.
Yes, we may wring our individual hands with prophesies of doom and such. But I can guarantee that if a politician stands for office and offers reality, rather than alternative facts, he will be out on his ear in short order.
Jimmy Carter tried it, to a very limited degree. He was out in favour of Reagan’s promises of infinite growth. But that was 40 years ago, and we’re still here.
We all know that alternative facts are readily available. And infinitely spreadable.
And of course Reagan was correct. (in the short term). People in general can only imagine short term. With little regard for long term logic and reason.
But at least Biden has not promised more ‘growth’. In that he seems to have brought common sense to the WH–though ultimately that might cost him his job.
Norman read the details of the GND. More roads, bridges electric cars, electric trucks, more PV massively so,, more wind turbines massively so and of course more high paying green jobs.
Not altogether sure what the GND is.
Until now, we have created an economic system where energy production has been a side issue where were able to use its surpluses to provide all the trappings of civilisation in the sense that we know it.
That covered the period roughly from the late 1800s to the late 1900s.
We consumed cheap surplus energy as fast as possible to give ourselves the delusion of ‘infinite plenty’. Oilwells and coalmines delivered the necessary energy to do it, with an investment return of 50 or 100:1
I don’t think it is possible to support the same level of modern civilisation where our prime occupation is producing and sustaining the means of energy production as an end in itself—ie with the sole aim of delivering forms of energy (i.e. mainly electricity) to ‘consumers’ who will have a diminishing means of consuming it.
This would in effect mean building solar farms and windfarms and stuff where the prime aim would be to provide work for us to do.
(the products of oil and coal and gas provide the manufacturing base and all the tiers of employment that give us the delusion of plenty)
I may be missing something but I don’t see how panel and turbine factories will provide all those millions of gizmos that make everything else work.
If this is difficult to grasp, stop and look around you.
Mentally remove EVERY object that has contained within it an input of coal oil or gas. (don’t forget the fridge and its contents.)
Having done that, replace it all with anything that can be produce SOLELY with the output of a solar panel or a wind turbine.
quite right, Norman.
and the Bidet administration takes the polar opposite view, so it’s onward and upward with the Green New Deal.
you aren’t “missing something”.
the Ds are.
I take your point
but blaming Biden won’t help
he has no more idea what to do than you or me. The previous nutcase was even worse, promising to burn coal for 400 years, and declaring that everything else was a Chinese hoax.
Biden appears at least sane. He’s telling as much truth as he can. And he fields a prettier, infinitely more intelligent line in press spokesladies!! I used to watch Spicer et al for the macabre dreadful bizarre humour of it all. Now I just watch, mesmerised by skill, intellect and technique.
Ultimately he will fail, because the electorate demands more than politics can deliver—from the right or left, dictator or democrat. Which makes me very sad, because I know what that will mean.
It isn’t possible to vote for prosperity—the last 100+ years have fed the delusion that we can. It has nothing to do with politics, though I doubt I will ever get that across.
Biden may be sane, but his mathematical skills are somewhat lacking:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Ulpd2eJK_i4/
200 billion doses to vaccinate 300 Americans. LOL
Even I have been known to make similar mistakes on here.
it gives cause for much celebration in certain quarters, as confirmation of my stupidity
“And he fields a prettier, infinitely more intelligent line in press spokesladies!!”
True dat. May even have a conscience based on her recent frustration on being forced to repeat official non answers lately.
Normon tell us a interesting story about your grandchildren. A bed time story to let us know you are human. PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZ
bed time story.
my grandchildren are too old for bedtime stories, and my great grandchildren live too far away–
but I’m still young enough to tell grown up bedtime stories
they are not suitable for the innocence of OFW
yes Norman, of course it’s not about politics but about the irreversible declining net (surplus) energy.
but D policy is much more aligned to the irrational GND type of ideas which you rightly reject.
one possible outcome of the November elections was that the Ds would end up “in charge” of the inevitable decline of the US economy.
the “blame” will always go to those in charge, even if they have no control over the ultimate outcome.
politicians have to have ‘policy’—goes with the territory
whether it makes sense or not is another matter
You are right about blame. In another month or less, the orange one will start ranting about the mess that Biden is making of everything
And I still don’t know what GND is
Norman, try this
https://www.investopedia.com/the-green-new-deal-explained-4588463
Norman, you old smoothie! You’re going to love this.
Psaki is hot! And so is her microphone!
somebody slinging anti-words together, searching for something adverse to point out and say–over and over
A true artist that is appalled by something produces deliberate wank. Either that, or they simply cannot do better than saying nothing wrapped in a lot of meandering yada-yada.
If it was an artist, hats off. If it was a dullard, well, there you go.
🤣👍
‘Norman, you old smoothie!’
Unlikely. I expect even his wrinkles have wrinkles nowadays.
lol
judge not by your own reflections
Biden brings ‘Common Sense’ perhaps in the artificial form of manufactured consent, repeating what is deemed ‘reasonable’ by the talking heads on CNBC.
And yet surely what is preferable is ‘Sense to Commoners’..?
Current year one dem budget 6 trillion on 2 trillion income with only 4 trillion borrowed.
yes, Bidet is pushing for the immediate passage of a $1.9 trillion handout package.
which I suppose could be judged as “common sense” because there are people who “need” it.
so what is that? 6 months since the last handout package?
then the next one would be due this summer.
I’ll be surprised if this first package is the only one in 2021.
When USSR collapsed I was a 10 y.o. boy. But damn I remember everything so well. It was collapse of empire. Empty shelves in stores. Our family used to starve. Food was handed out only with coupons, but even having a coupon on hand did not mean that you could get food. The banditry was absolute, the police withdrew. I was afraid to go to school and return home, because schoolchildren were constantly beaten and raped. My classmate had his head broken, he miraculously survived, lay in a coma for over a month. One girl from my apartment house was raped and killed. I was severely beaten in the street several times and received an injury that still makes itself felt. What we went through, I will not forget until the end of my life. This was a collapse. Suddenly there is no government, no police, no rules. Everybody do whatever they want. Nobody expected what our society have so many gangsters. And suddenly they rule. And they are the only force. My grandfather was an architect and he went to design houses for the new owners of life so it helped my family to survive. So let’s hope global collapse will be postponed. The world have plenty of natural gas. 100+ years supply. Plenty of coal. Yes it’s very dirty, but it’s still very cheap to produce.
Sergey, thanks for the insight.
Sergey, so then has Putin been good for Russia?
Sergey, thanks for sharing your experience. I was of a similar age in a small town in Eastern Europe and we were lucky – we saw no violence.
But, what followed was painful. For the next 20 years, we were very insecure. There were years when the inflation was 1000% per year. My monthly scholarship in college was enough for a soda.
We had advantages compared to the Americans (see Dmitry Orlov). Everyone was raising pigs and chickens. The apartments were govt owned and the rent lagged behind the inflation.
The pensioners and the govt employees were struggling.
The people in the countryside had to take city jobs (usually construction) just to make ends meet.
But we still had families and friends and we could talk to people. I don’t dare imagine what would happen in US – sick, brainwashed people with no families and no friends finding themselves without McDonalds and electricity. Can they cook? Can they come together and share? I don’t know.
The Lock-down Society they are creating in the West – in order to exert maximum economic and social control, clearly not to ‘fight the virus’ as they say – will result in total mental, physical and social incapacity to deal with any great crisis.
It is not only cruel, but imbecilic – but the rich have always hated any vestige of liberty among the masses and feel that this sort of thing makes them safer.
Interesting post on many fronts, thanks Sergey.
Specifically, on your concluding part, one has to wonder about that giggling posture of the Russian president when teleconferencing with that Davos folk recently. Perhaps it was largely about the brief earned respite and “victory” vs the odds of permanent incoming meddling and cold wars ver_ xyz..
But in the overall context such self confidence must have been also grounded in something else, and as you alluded, chiefly a lot of oil and natgas is being developed in the arctic and far east provinces, at least for the Russia proper demand (+ few allied -stans) and perhaps some other partners in Europe and elsewhere.. Also we know about their world’s only industrial scale breeder NPPs etc., perhaps there are even some next gen (energy ace in the pocket) stuff yet non unveiled.
There are so many viable scenarios ahead, from synchronized universal fast-global collapse to various regional pockets to hang on for some trimmed – re evaluated form of IC..
Putin has failed to solve Russia’s declining population issue- a fatal trend in a nation with so much border to defend. Russia needs rule by a committee that allows debate and focuses on the long tern threats- not a dictator who plays geo-games.
Sorry, that’s shallow analysis at best on your part.
“He” turned around ever failing vassal state into sovereign state on bedrock pillars (yes with existing serious issues still). As debated here recently, the per capita poverty / malnutrition line (and other parameters) are actually way ahead in many W-states of the core IC.. If someone had predicted such reality two decades ago, people would think must be nuts.. But here we are..
Russian geo-games seem (gains & losses) ~adequate scale to her weight and place in the world, certainly not over reaching and over stretching to same extent as say in the US-UK example..
2 years. The collapse is always 2 years away.
That is the way we always think.
in a few countries, it’s negative 2 years away.
Several people in this comment section have suggested that the collapse is mere months away.
Collapse is well underway, it is like waves hitting shore. Each wave makes us poorer. Some waves are bigger than others, and some people live closer to shore than others.
But we are talking decades here.
I agree, well underway but full collapse probably in decades.
though a black swan, something critical breaks in the CB/finance quasi software that runs the real physical economy, and boom.
could be weeks or months.
but essentially, black swans are extremely rare.
If like me, you’ve built and played with bonfires a fair bit, you’ll probably have noticed an interesting phenomena—the fire that is twice as big doesn’t last even close to twice as long. This is because the greater the volume of fuel, the more intense the fire will be,Once you stop putting more wood onto the bonfire, it will burn down to embers within a few hours. The embers will keep hot beneath a surface layer of ash for several days. (Of course, with thicker logs and certain kinds of wood, you can build fires that will burn for longer. But that’s another issue.)
If we consider the bonfire as an analogy of the economy and the energy supply as our woodpile, we are at a stage where after steadily building an expanding bonfire by adding more and more fuel, we are no longer able to keep adding fuel at a sufficient rate to keep the blaze going at the current scale, but we are still in a position to add smaller amount of fuel and keep a smaller fire blazing.
The “end fossil fuels” movement is advocating not adding any more fuel and the inevitable result of following that advice would be that the bonfire will burn down to embers and we will only be able to run stuff that can run on embers—the equivalent of baking sweet potatoes, toasting marshmallows, boiling water, etc. And the embers will only stay warm for a limited time. After that, the few of us who survive will be back to burning real trees on real bonfires and the issue of whether solar panels and wind turbines can run industrial society will have been well and truly settled.
quite right, jolly well right.
“… the issue of whether solar panels and wind turbines can run industrial society will have been well and truly settled.”
though, if any GND types survive, their basic theme will likely be “it would have worked, if only we started sooner”.
more or less what I’ve been blathering on about for years
though potatoes wrapped in foil buried in hot ash really are the best after the fire has died down
Wise men and women make fires, sit by them, play with them, and think……
RE: Naked shorting and declining EROEI
Wall Street claims that shorting of stocks, derivatives, and leverage are beneficial because they encourage “true price discovery” and “promote efficient allocation of capital.”
Back in the days of high EROEI which enabled true economic growth and creation of wealth, shorting of stocks could conceivably keep asset prices of companies in check, just as natural wildfires were good for the forest ecosystem.
But today, with declining EROEI, true growth has flattened. The financial complexity and gimmickry of Wall Street, the endless Central Bank printing and shoring up of big banks, especially naked shorting of stocks have only one purpose, and that is to raid the remaining assets from the people, not create more wealth. In a situation with declining EROEI and massive debt (burning the candle at both ends) wealth creation today is difficult. It is now a fight over the remaining pie, not about creating more pie. There are no US Enterprise Starship replicators.
In a flattening or declining economy these financial “instruments” only can accelerate the demise of a barely sustainable economy by concentration of wealth.
Good companies with value added production of things who have run into hard times because of the financial chicanery and declining energy have no chance of recovering or sustaining.
Get rid of the useless, needless complexity on Wall Street. Flatten the volatility curve which benefits only parasitic moneychanger/traders. Eliminate short trading, derivatives, and this outrageous leverage.
If you think a company has good prospects and is fairly valued or undervalued, you simply buy the stock and maybe even get rewarded for holding it long term. If you think the stock is overvalued or not performing or its product like Smith Corona typewriters is obsolete, you sell it. But at least give a company a chance. If there are more sellers than buyers, the share price will reflect price discovery. It is the extreme hypocrisy that hedge funds try to justify their existence by claiming that they expunge all the waste of bloated corporations when in fact, some idle cash reserves are necessary to ensure a company’s survival in down turns, just as a bear needs to put on fat during the summer to sustain itself during months of hibernation induced starvation.
Big corporations have taken on huge amounts of low interest debt to boost their share price, but this distortion too should eventually be reflected in their stock price, even from the least complex system of stock trading through simple buying and selling. It would seem that all these financial analysts are fumbling the ball when they can not see this debt bomb on a corporation’s balance sheet. The ratings agencies like S&P, Fitch, Moodys were all in on the fake triple AAA ratings back in the 2008 crunch. They enabled this financial scam which made some money changers who did not productive work, but instead knew how to game the system, fantastically rich. What a convenient excuse for hedge funds to justify destroying and carving up these companies which had been set up Judas CEOs as justification for hedge funds’ existance and naked shorting and other financial extraction schemes.
Futures are applicable to certain things for which they were originally designed, i.e to ensure that during spring planting season farmers could get a decent price for their planted crops at harvest time to enable them to afford to plant next year’s crop.
In a brilliant oratorio written by Hans Honneger, “Jeanne d’Arc au Bucher”, there appear these lines, after a “card game” satirical of the legal and ecclesiastical process that condemned her:
“J’ai perdu et j’ai de l’argent plein les poches.”
“J’ai gagné et j’ai de l’argent plein les poches.”
In other words, the powerful win when they win, and win when they lose. But the ordinary people always lose. To Jeanne herself is given one of the best lines in the work, as she faces those who are about to condemn her to death: “It is not you who binds my hands; it is the Truth that binds my hands.”
And you wonder why she reminds me of Greta Thunberg.
A tale of two brothers… As someone who has studied collapse — and power — since 1993, I have tailored my life to a lower energy future. As a consequence my wife and I do not own a vehicle and we can probably grow at least 50% of our food on our 1/4 acre suburban lot. I do most of what I need to — and get some exercise — on foot with a wheelbarrow and with a bicycle and a trailer. I realize that everything requires some petroleum input as I heat with natural gas and leased two vehicles for a day each last year. I have also just purchased a 4000 foot irrigation system which was produced using petroleum products. By contrast, my brother farms in W. Indiana and requires a staggering amount of fuel/equipment for his operation. This is being documented by my niece. See https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQhwzTZ6D7FslHtTjGe82UQ
I think that my method of living will prevail. Time will tell.
Interestingly enough, I started my career as a Texaco rep negotiating the value of oil and gas leases in West Texas.
None of us really knows what is ahead. Good luck. A big problem is that we all are dependent on inputs from others. Your irrigation system won’t be much good without water to put into it, for example.
The history of civilisation is replete with terrible periods when farmers, and even graziers, were driven off their land to the towns or new regions by drought and floods, disease in animals and crops.
Or by taxes imposed by those very towns.
Nonetheless, I salute all those who are trying to live well and sanely on the land, and the best of luck to them.
Xabier, I believe there is still one major country that still recognises the value of “The Good Earth”: Japan. And the farmers of India still recognise its value, but the government of India does not recognise theirs.
A blogger recently posted the following, and if it makes him feel more secure, he should go for it; however, I’ll pass.
“And if you have to fight to protect home and hearth and kith and kin then prepare. I’m going to buy a couple of Panasonic solar panels, two deep cycle batteries and a charge controller next month just in case things go badly wrong. The panels have a life of 25 years and the batteries 8-10 years. Total cost is about $1,500. For that you get peak 680W for charging your battery bank and depending on how many batteries you have, enough energy to run lights, power tools, etc. You can also buy a DC refrig/freezer but may have to add another battery. Charge inverter necessary if you want to run AC appliances. I’m also going to have things always ready to move, in case a nasty “warlord” does set-up shop in the area.”
It won’t provide heat in winter. It won’t provide food. But maybe he can have lights and a television set for a while.
A well respected guy in my village (who I don’t believe would lie) said he can live fairly normally on his solar array. I don’t argue, but I’m sure he’s missing something (perceptually). That means I’m less inclined to “push the case” — and I rely on the more commonsensical points of the subject to share.
what he’s missing is, that whereas a small average home can get by on a 2kw consumption rate, the infrastructure that our homes sit in consumes about 120kw a day on our behalf, and without which we could not sustain ourselves.
The above figure is what he lives ‘comfortably’ on, not his solar array
Pass this over
its free, and the best reference anywhere on ‘sustainable energy’
https://www.withouthotair.com/download.html
Thanks for the reference. It’s sort of like a single cell in a dying human body saying, “I’ve had enough of this, I’m going green and filling my membranes with chlorophyll. I’ll survive while all of you stupid cells that depend on the heart and circulation die. All of the other cells scoff, “What a fool, the heart and circulation will never stop.” And then there was just one little cell with the lights on and all the other cells were envious. It didn’t take long and the last lonely cell went dark.
Thanks. And very nicely stated, James. 🙂
Norman is precisely correct. People miss the fact that we depend on the “system” to provide us with food, clothing, and clean water that we cannot produce for ourselves. The system provides glass to replace a broken windows as well. The more complex the system becomes (say windows with two or three layers of glass), the less likely it becomes to replace a broken window.
We are right now seeing shortages of semiconductor chips. I believe one of the parts of this problem is low prices for chips. If prices were a lot higher, manufacturing could have been ramped up in China and other places, because they would not have had to be as efficient to complete. Without these chips, manufacture of all kinds of high tech goods stop. In today’s world, that seems to be phones, refrigerators, microwave ovens, cars and trucks, satellites, and a whole lot of other things.
SWIFT Sets Up Joint Venture With China Central Bank Ahead Of Imminent Digital Yuan Launch
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/swift-sets-joint-venture-china-central-bank-ahead-imminent-digital-yuan-launch
It looks like China wants to be ready with a digital currency as soon as 2022. A person would wonder whether they see that the world financial system crashing, and they need something to work around it.
With Swift involved, they seem to want to make the new currency an international currency.
Their next test seems to include locations in Beijing and Hong Kong.
It may be they can see that their own financial system is at risk of crashing. Corruption and bankruptcy are endemic in China. Little of which gets reported in the western MSM.
Central bank digital currencies (CBDC’s) are being developed by several central banks. They know the jig is up and want their next scam to be in place when this one blows up. Probably same blockchain so they can interact.
Sharp decrease in Q4 productivity, which fell -4.8% (worst since 1981)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtYyL1nWgAIo4eG?format=jpg&name=900×900
hurry!
we need $1.9 trillion and we need it now!
Not a very stable measure.
U.S. margin debt growth continues its parabolic ascent. Now in line with growth seen before tech bust & GFC:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtYpI_-XIAIBppG?format=jpg&name=small
Detached Parabolas and Open Trap Doors
Feb ’21
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210201/
[Excerpted: many excellent graphics]
I decided this month that the best way to illustrate the weight of this moment in history would be to juxtapose quotations from prior financial bubbles alongside charts of current market extremes. They may give you a nosebleed. One might benefit from the lessons of history by realizing how broadly this market exhibits the hallmarks of a generational speculative peak.
. . .
I’ll say this again. I believe that future investors will look back on the present moment the same way that we look back on the 1929 and 2000 extremes. People will use us to teach lessons to their children.
. . .
You can try to get “out of” cash by buying stocks, but only by bidding up stock prices enough for a seller to accept the cash in return. Yes, you now own more stocks, but your cash is now held by that seller. There are no “sidelines.” Every security is held, exactly as before. Nothing has changed except the owners. The problem is that the psychological impulse to own something other than cash, regardless of price, has created a situation where stock market valuations have been bid up to levels that imply negative S&P 500 total returns for well over 12 years.
. . .
Understand how extreme current valuations have become. In order to simply touch run-of-the-mill historical valuation norms, the S&P 500 would have to lose somewhere in the range of 65-70% over the completion of this cycle. In that context, it’s worth nothing that a 62% loss would wipe out the entire total return of the S&P 500 over-and-above Treasury bills since the March 2000 peak. Put simply, I would not be terribly surprised if the completion of this cycle shreds away every bit of total return that the S&P 500 has achieved in excess of T-bills since 2000.
. . .
Notably, when investors are inclined toward risk-aversion, low interest liquidity becomes a desirable asset rather than an “inferior” one, so creating more of the stuff does nothing to support the market. Investors should remember this from the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 collapses, during which the Fed was aggressively and persistently easing monetary policy to no avail. Even the steep market declines we’ve observed in recent years (early-2018, late-2018, early-2020) have occurred during periods when market internals have become unfavorable. As I noted in my mid-January comment, those measures deteriorated a few weeks ago. I view the current combination of hypervaluation, price overextension, lopsided bullishness, and unfavorable market internals as a “trap door” situation.
Hausmann says at the beginning:
“I am convinced that future generations will use the present moment to define the concept of a reckless speculative extreme, in the same way our generation uses “1929” and “2000.””
Actually, it will likely be worse, given where we seem to be headed.
in 1929 there was oil, and Texas had a different economy
It doesn’t look like the debt margin growth can go much higher. Ouch!
I believe what we’re seeing with the corruption in our country proves the end is near. Wall Street, the health care system, the debasement of our currency etc. Everything we trusted as a complex society is completely broken. An orgy of fraud, waste and abuse. Complex systems fail slowly at first, then catastrophically in an instant. If you hesitate, there’s no time to react.
yes complete corruption, collapse is happening now
i shorted CLLPSE in Sept ’19 and now those shares are precious medals.
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, then suddenly.”
—Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
Bravo
Perhaps failure is like a snow avalanche. There is a slow tendency for snow to accumulate in one unsustainable way, and then it all gives way. Or building a sand castle, it can be built to one level, but eventually it starts to coallapse.
I’m beginning to think that we started our collapse when we kicked off the industrial revolution and started looting the planet
seen in our timescale, its been a continual upward progress that must go on indefinitely
but seen in earth timescale it might have been the start of our slide into oblivion
Agree — if we step back and consider what has been going on since the turn of the century we can see the phases of collapse happening … and the responses to each by the central banks (Elders).
Recall pre GFC the surreal situation — a few saw that as depicted in The Big Short — but what could not continue continued for far longer than they thought it could…. then pre Covid — we could observe the data points breaking up e.g. auto sales in China were thundering lower every month for nearly a year — this in spite of massive stimulus…. you just knew something big was coming … the stimulus was pushing on a string (actually the string was pushing back)…..
That put us officially into the acute phase … the Elders are bailing as fast as they can … but the Titanic is taking on water faster than they can bail…. the rats are drowning … 3rd class first…
Happy Time are Almost Here!
This will be playing out across tourist towns across the globe…. operators who believed Covid was a short term play have struggled to stay in business but are now throwing in the towel — either because they have run out of cash — or they cannot see a light at the end of the tunnel…
I was told by friends on the ground that 80% of Bali shops and restaurants are permanently closed… I suspect we’ll see a similar outcome in QT in a few months… one mate of mine works in a restaurant and he told me they need 3k turnover to break even… they are averaging 1k…. how long will the owners tolerate a 60k shortfall…. when this is high season and they know this is as good as it is going to get…..
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/124209638/tourism-businesses-closing-as-economic-disaster-looms-in-queenstown
Phantom Virus: In search of Sars-CoV-2
Torsten Engelbrecht, Dr Stefano Scoglio & Konstantin Demeter
https://off-guardian.org/2021/01/31/phantom-virus-in-search-of-sars-cov-2/
An appreciating US dollar and increasing crude prices putting the hurt on India:
Petrol, diesel price at fresh high; oil co says only tax cut by government can help
https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/petrol-diesel-price-at-fresh-high-oil-co-says-only-tax-cut-by-government-can-help/article33751118.ece
India is in terrible shape!
The medical experts have bamboozled themselves into thinking a PCR test result can be counted as a health condition
The medical doctors have bamboozled themselves into a PCR test is much more viable explanation for a SARI than heavy air pollution (that was the reason in 90% of previous cases)
The Governments have banboozled themselves into a Build Back Better strategy
The Financial System has bamboozled itself into the longest bull market of commodities ever because now we will in the end build our entire civilization a second time.
The media bamboozled itself into believing its own myths
The legal system has bamboozled itself into “the results matter”
The People have bamboozled themselves that nobody is bamboozled.
The longest short is short on oil.
MM, wonderfully put. 🙂
Experts Tell Biden: Your Climate Goals Require a Carbon Price
(Bloomberg) — Meeting the climate goals of President Joe Biden will require setting a national cost for carbon pollution and spending heavily on social programs to assist Americans hurt by the clean-energy transition. Those are the findings in a new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, the latest group to lay out a detailed strategy for making the U.S. economy carbon-neutral by 2050.
The goal to be carbon-neutral by mid-century — which the global scientific community says is the only way to avert the worst effects of climate change — has been widely embraced in the private sector and by nine of the top 10 biggest economies, including the U.S. Yet 30 years is very little time to wind down and replace an energy system that’s taken generations to build. Urgent steps and market signals are needed, the report said, such as a mechanism to place a price on carbon emissions.
“The big difference between this and any previous report is the attention paid to the social connections to the equity and diversity, and community worker-protection issues,” said Stephen Pacala, committee chair and a professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at Princeton University. “The report was specifically created to have a full representation of the social dimensions of a transition like this. At least half of our policy recommendations are in that camp.” One of their suggestions is to establish a White House Office of Equitable Energy Transitions to develop criteria to ensure that energy transition funds are equitably shared so that historically marginalized communities can benefit from new jobs and low-cost net-zero energy.
Thank you for your latest effort! Obviously, these folks need to read your work!
Ah yes, “equity and diversity”. We must all go carbon neutral, but nobody must suffer. Why is so much of our world being run by idiot useless eaters?
Carbon neutral has nothing to do with managing the climate. Going after carbon dioxide is the perfect cover for the industrial collapse underway, just as Covid-19 is.
I think you are probably right.
It’s great “to be around” when independent thinkers are brave enough to speak their mind in difficult times, thanks.
We are almost done with the Collapse itself. As a staggered process going forward incrementally through various events (systemic and non-systemic) it was not noticed and even now is more or less apperant its consequences are yet to be fully realized. In a complex dissipative system things happen in geometrical progression, a clear example is the logical problem of the swimming pool which starts filling by doubling one drop of water and proceeding doubling all subsequent results. When the swimming pool will be 100% full? It is safe to say that we are already pass the moment where the Collapse can be managed in any meaningful way (the pool is 50% full now). But the reset of what will be left of the system can be managed and is the only rational thing to do (by Reset I don’t mean the so called Great Reset of the Davos crowd).
I agree that we are already well on the way. I don’t really think the rest can be “managed,” apart from what the system itself does. Do you have links?
Above is mine own opinion based on my knowledge of ecology, ecosystems and biological systems. Above metaphor is based on this https://gmatclub.com/forum/the-volume-of-water-inside-a-swimming-pool-doubles-every-hour-if-the-220233.html
I think we are just one doubling before the pool is fully filled, which is the metaphor for the Collapse. Collapse can’t be postponed, it is happening and we will (or won’t) face the results. The interesting thing is what comes after the Collapse. I called it reset. Historically we have been through 5 total collapses followed by resets. Every time the reset gets more and more original and thorough.
In usa the price of gasoline Is fly hight. Marco bruciati
As logical as the ideas about oil prices are, our society cannot survive without gasoline readily available. I wonder if large federal subsidies will be offered to oil companies so that the extraction can continue.
Yes sure. Whit debit and debit and debit
The big issue is that “demand” is not high enough. Too many people are staying at home with COVID. Too little international flying is done.
I cannot see Biden doing anything to help oil companies. At some point, we can expect countries to divide up. Even, the US could divide up into smaller parts. I can imagine a smaller part of the US (including Texas and a few other states) trying to make it on their own. This smaller group could perhaps try to help oil producers. It would get rid of part of the US that is not producing much. Perhaps prices could be higher for a smaller group.
Yes, we have seen precursors in hi-tech (incl. mil contractors) & fin moguls relocating into Texas already. Balkanization proper here we come..
Karl Marx knew that in order for capitalism to produce a profit that some input had to be undervalued. He mistakenly identified this as (primarily) labor. Energy (and resources of all kinds) is actually what is discounted. It may be that lack of affordability (demand) is a systemic effect of the 50 year decline in labors share of value. Perhaps this decrease was necessary to offset diminishing returns of energy resources? For technology to be profitable requires more energy use – therefore labor as an input must be devalued. In the same way the increasing complexity of ancient societies required food production by slaves/serfs to allow more complex social roles to exist.
@Tina. When we hit bottom, the US government will control every oil and gas company, as well as all energy distribution, by force. That is 100% guaranteed. They will also control all food, water, communication etc.
It may be that all is taken by government force but I do not see the state of Texas helping Washington DC to ship Texas oil to Neo-N azis in Portland Oregon. All will be controlled by every more local government.
I do not see Edinburgh sending proud Scottish fish to London.
I feel very close . And next autumn i really cant immagine. Marco bruciati
The financial system especially looks like it could have a big change coming soon. We don’t know exactly what, however.
When Will be collaps?)
No one knows the day of death or the day of justice. All we know is it is inevitable. Time marches on. One day there is a ending of sorts. From our perspective it is all encompassing. From the perspective of the planet it is not trivial but BAU.
Collapse is a long process not an event. As the saying goes: “things that can not go on indefinitely, won’t”. Hopefully it happens after i’m no longer around.
that’s everybody’s ‘get out of jail’ card.
I was sort of wishing to see nukes fly. You know, stand reasonably close to one of those behemoths unleashed in an awesome display of fire and fury.
Some excitement at last. A bit of grandeur to lighten up the dullard of dimwitted alphas and betas herding and being herded around.
Nah, that would go against the 8 #Rules of Mother Earth. But hey, one can dream big. Like the American one. Indeed, the one you gotta be asleep to believe in.
Oh man, would I have been the perfect 5’th columnar, conspiring with what have you. Only, yes, only for shits and giggles. My own perverse pet project of rapacious primate shenanigan despair. Now that I think about it, what’s the name of such an entity in biblical terms?
😈
/sarc off
Everything we know from past collapses is that they take place over a period of years. I expect that the results will be different in different places in the world.
There are many events that are likely to be part of this. One is overturned governments. Another is major problem with the financial system. Another is broken supply lines, so that goods that used to be available are “temporarily” unavailable.
Eventually, we will likely lose electrical power. First this is likely to be on an intermittent basis. Later it may be gone forever. I don’t expect electricity to last longer than oil.
We have already started into collapse. I think that the response of governments to COVID-19 is part of collapse. Persuading people not to travel reduces oil consumption and keeps prices down. Oil companies close because they cannot make a profit. Governments of these countries are overthrown.
Thank you for answer
Will the collapse be televised?
My guess it will be censored.
‘Today’s Collapse didn’t abide by our community standards’. Ha! How true.
I am afraid you are right.
I purposely did not put collapse in the title or in the key words, for fear the post would be censored.
It will be broadcast live, directly from the edge of the cliff. But of course the shills will call it something other than collapse, perhaps the Really Great Leap Forward.
The Really Great Leap Forward and the Uncultured Revolution – dream team for the end of days…….
What Happens
It has happened
and it happens now as before
and will continue to happen
if nothing is done against it.
The innocent don’t know a thing about it
because they are too innocent
and the guilty don’t know a thing about it
because they’re too guilty.
The poor don’t take notice
because they’re too poor
and the rich don’t take notice
because they’re too rich.
The stupid shrug their shoulders
because they’re too stupid
and the clever shrug their shoulders
because they’re too clever.
It doesn’t bother the young
because they’re too young
and it doesn’t bother the old
because they’re too old.
That’s why nothing is done against it
and that’s why it happened
and happens now as before
and will continue to happen.
Erich Fried (1921-1988)
Much truth in that poem.
Today a very wealthy friend paid me a surprise visit: he was appalled and very surprised by all the closed businesses, lack of people on the streets and general air of depression here in Cambridge, as in his smart suburb of London it is very much busier and much more normal despite lock-down.
I was pleased to introduce him to a little of the New Normal, and he left rather depressed.
Everyone is partially blinkered in their own way – perhaps that is merciful?
So maybe he DID notice, but couldn’t take it because he was too rich.
he must be really rich and really insulated. Must have a very high ivory tower and blinkers made in Savile row.
these days every town looks and feels every day like they used to at 9am on a Sunday morning, except for the church bells, which even to a heathen like me were always intensely pleasing, especially a really good carillon.
Don’t know if it’s merciful, but I believe it’s almost inevitable. Denial is more human than opera or navigation, it is at the basis of what we are as species. Binkers are comforting, reassuring, empowering and hopiate. They’re everything we need to prosper.. till don’t.
My experience says people who risk looking at the world without blinkers have to spend their lives demi-disguising the fact, that if they want to have some social life outside the web!
It seems that his ‘super-prime’ suburb of London has lots of nice small food shops which, being ‘essential’ are still open,well-stocked, and the people who live there are using them a lot and not shopping online as here.
Apart from the restaurants being closed, full BAU.
He was shocked, and it did him good to see reality – a true example of living in a bubble in a time of general crisis and suffering.
His grandmother was a bare-foot peasant, so he does know about real life (in fact a forced labourer in WW2), and is spending money in those shops to help keep them going.
Streamed, surely.
yahoo!!
it would be hard to be denied the quasi pervverse desire to be informed about the utter collapse of the Periphery, from the view of a computer screen in a part of the Core that is holding onto partial bAU longer than most other places.
and the dream, to be living in the part of the small inner Core that holds longer than the large outer Core.
then the nightmare, the millions of children swept under by collapse.
it’s coming.
Gail, you are always understated yet this article says collapse now. I agree it is just frightening to see it in print. Thanks for truth telling.
The happy side Klaus will not get his highly complex 100% monitored and top down controlled world.
Gates may get one round of profits from un-needed vax but then that to will be to expensive.
I am hoping for a return to the one room school house. We have several roads with names like White School House Road and Red School House Road. No vax required, no laptop required just pencil and paper.
… and we won’t have to see a stupid smartphone ever again.
pencil and paper indeed!!
getting ideas above your station
you’ll have to make do with a slate and piece of chalk like all the other kids
This always cracks me up.
In my day there was a slate, but not a piece of chalk. Instead, a very hard, cylindrical “stylus” that made an unsettling screech against the slate. I’m against it! Better to write with a stick in the dirt.
More and more families are home schooling, or getting together with others to learn in a Pod. Schools have been unsatisfactory in many places for a long time. Mixing children from different backgrounds doesn’t always work well. Children with much smaller vocabularies may have problems with others with bigger vocabularies.
“Mommy, what’s a ‘Cleveland Steamer’ ?”
Okay, I’m picturing a math class. “Thus the angles add up to 180,” says the teacher. “Is this not so, children?”
“Indubitably,” they all reply, except for little Latisha who says “Fo’ shizzy.” They kick her out. She wouldn’t feel comfortable there anyway.
Hi Gail
Another thought provoking post. Thank you.
With great respect, some questions were raised in my mind, but not answered. Perhaps others will have similar questions when you present.
I think I understand (from reading) that collapse is about more than just peak oil. But Oil production/consumption has been tightly correlated to GDP. The “Great Acceleration” since circa 1950 seems to correlate well with burning more and more oil (as well as other energy sources). COVID and massive debt issuance are confusing the picture now, but if a person had to pick just two metrics to track where we have been, where we are now, and were we are going, it would be the oil production levels and estimated energy costs (EROI) of our oil reserves? I think this modified “peak oil” view roughly tracks with the increasing extraction costs of resources as the primary mechanism of decreasing industrial production in LTG models.
There is the question of why oil prices cannot rise. That seems the most likely to come from traditional economists and audiences. It is a hard to understand. Personally I have returned to a view discarded by some. It is that the value of fuels refined from oil (gas, diesel, kerosene) to the non-energy economy is declining as EROI (or whatever net energy measurement) of oil increases. This is because we are burning those refined fuels in a billion or more internal combustion engines (in cars, trucks, etc.) with thermal efficiencies of only 25-35% of so. At a certain point the energy costs of extracting, refining, and transporting the oil and refined fuels to the consumer is more than the energy value of the refined fuels that can produce useful work. But that idea still seem to miss something to explain why oil becomes “unaffordable” in this system to consumers. I think it might have to do with a reduction in the amount of economic work performed by internal combustion engines in the non-energy part of the economy, which restated would be a reduction in leverage to human labor/reduction in labor productivity. A decrease in productivity would decrease income.
Why is there a wage disparity between elites and non-elites? Could there be power laws that describe the statistical distribution of wages in a complex adaptive economy with high energy inputs? The more energy available, the larger the disparity? Are wage disparities inevitable in a high energy system?
Are the disparities in wages and costs you talk about a view weighted by information about the U.S.? As global hegemon, the United States takes and burns a disproportionate share global resources. It also issues mighty amounts of credit to the global system. The U.S. has been able to borrow with impunity. This might account in part for some of the enormous rises in costs of services in the United States. The U.S. may experience a rapid simplification very soon. ☹
Regards
The endless printing of fiat works only because China is willing to provide manufactured goods for that fiat. They understand more than most that fiat can not retain purchasing power with this sort of printing but are playing the game from a perspective of global power not profit. Authoritarian regimes are perceived as maintaining some sort of control as we enter a period where outcomes are uncertain. China is putting in place what they can while they can. Debt can not be repaid without collection so a collection system must be created along with the debt or the debt is meaningless. Like a junkie really has no choice to buy his fix the countries with debt to GDP above 100 really have no choice either. Getting clean requires a standard of living based on sovereign resources not fiat that becomes more unthinkable with every passing day that they get their “fix”. As the addiction becomes stronger the dealer becomes less nice.
The question to my mind is not how long fiat creating countries will satisfy their desire for a status quo standard of living but how long China can satisfy its desire for global power before real limits are hit in a finite world. Ultimately credit is extended by the resources of the planet and those resources are far from infinite. What is truly terrifying to us is that we have no conception of living in a world without a fix and have no skills to do so. The learning curve will be very steep and old dogs that cant learn new tricks like myself will not fare well. This is unfortunate but the truth is we lived in a time of great wealth if not great wisdom. Justice is in fact the end of our entitlement not its continuation. I dont like it any more than you do. Our shelter is the light in our hearts and the beauty of the planet. Those are infinitely sustainable and represent the truth even in our present illusion and circumstances.
There is no “non-energy part of the economy”
Are you referring to the financials Ed portion of the economy? Which may be manifested as partially “fake” GDP.?
The financialized part of our GDP destroys true capital, and results in massive mail-investment for the most part. As such, it is a massive energy sink, destroying potential productive uses of energy and capital.
I should say “non-energy producing” part of the economy. For simplicity, the economy is separated into the part that extracts, refines and delivers energy, and the part of the economy that uses that energy to produce other economic work. Some EROI calculations attempt to measure the former in energy terms. There are indirect measurements using proxies like monetary expenditures in each. In reality of course, the world is complex and interconnected. But models are never perfect representations of reality. The just help our little brains to navigate the external world.
It becomes unaffordable due to the effect of diminishing returns and marginal utility, and inevitable humanoid irrelevance due to relentless automation, robotics and AI.
With other words, how ineffective and nonproductive does one have to be before it starts hurting? Apparently substantially – for a little while longer.
And then, oh yes, it is back to the life of their distant ancestry. Then the wheel of time takes another spin in perpetuity. Unless, of course, the sun flares/nova massively and boils off the surface of the planet making it as sterile as Mars.
Oh, noes, but we are so unique, so special and deserve better than total and utter extinction. How about no?
🤔
I am not sure I can answer all of your questions.
We know that wealth disparity was reduced in the 1950s and 1960s. This was when oil consumption per capita was rising rapidly. In some sense, the net energy available from oil, in total, was rising rapidly. It became less and less expensive for people to by homes and vehicles. More of the population could afford to buy them. When a major flu (perhaps similar to COVID-19) came along, no one mentioned it much. The economy did as well as ever.
It was when we tried to substitute added complexity for added oil supply that the situation started to fall apart. That is when wage disparity grew rapidly. We needed lots of debt. For example, see this chart on wage disparity.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/income-top10-percent-comared-to-bottom-90.jpg
I think the issue is really a mixture of quantity and cost. We got behind, once oil could not reasonably be sold at an inflation adjusted price of less than $20 per barrel. The fact that total consumption could rise rapidly was important as well.
All of this EROEI discussion has missed the point that in some sense EROEI has been too low for a very long time. Looking for some future event is a little silly.
I can reply to one of your questions, the part about inequality.
I begin with a zero sum game. for one player to win, the other has to lose.
Similarly, if one player profits. someone else carries a loss.
Which brings me to government deficits. In a fiat world, a deficit is the annual loss that is added to the National Debt. Someone profits, and that someone is usually the first recipient of payment from the government.
Relatively speaking, CEO’s get high salaries for extracting wealth from governments, seemingly much easier than inventing new mousetraps,or other demanding tasks, and those profits (all things being equal) exactly balance the deficit.
All things being unequal, the poor get means tested welfare.
Anyway, as far as now we know, growth of birth rate in the coming decades is very improbable, at least at a global level. So peak population will be possibly in the ’30.
Possibly, but 50% of world population is below 30 years, so it will take stop reproducing soon, and not increasing life spans.
THe first chart if true shows a rapidly increasing birth rate as well as death rate around 2050 with population decrease occurring only a decade or so later.
Its just a chart. I find its prediction possible maybe even probable.
What keeps population appropriate for the resources available is a function of birth rate, death rate, lifespan and infant mortality. We have idea about which of these factors will change in what proportion but by which means the inevitable changes will occur remains at best informed speculation. What the informed speculation of the chart does not evaluate is the possibility of a rapid decrease in world population due to one factor or another. The chart makes a reasonable guess as to what may be excluding drastic occurrences of population decrease.
Most species will procreate without thought or choice. The choice to limit childbearing has occurred in cultures with high standards of living. Whether it will continue as standards of living fall remains to be seen. It would certainly seem to be desirable that people voluntarily do so if resources don’t support offspring from my belief set. If resources are scarce it may be one of the few things people have however. It takes zero resources to initiate the process of child birth. That decision can not be taken from individuals without losing something that is of infinite value beyond analysis IMO. It speaks to the primary paradox. Life is precious at the same time as the same time as it is not. This paradox can only be resolved by placing our attention on our heart not our mind.
As it becomes apparent that things we thought real are not it creates opportunity to adjust our attention to things that really hold truth beauty and grace. That is our natural state our destiny and our birthright.
The economic states and their herds are coming to an end and the boy scout version of human reality has had its day.
We can expect them to go down fighting each other, which will hasten their end. The more that they try to sustain themselves, the more that they will destroy themselves.
The less flexible the dissipative structure in its reformation, the sooner it will collapse. And one thing the states and their herds are not is flexible.
“What we have we hold. Do not even talk about the potential changes. That is mean – a sin against the herd! It is divisive! Baaaa! Grunt! Moooo! Shhhh!”
The implication seems to be that the objective is total collapse and the sooner the better. If they are going to be destroyed then they would rather get on with it and do it themselves.
Perhaps they will just nuke each other after all, and be done with it? USA and China can fight it out over who is ‘top dog’ even while the whole thing collapses.
The ‘guiding hand’ looks like it has washed itself of the whole thing. “What is truth!” Either that or it has really got it in for them – and not for the first time.
“They’re quite aware of what they’re goin’ through”
Just imagine a warlike sentients species of rapacious primate origins taking into interstellar space finding other sentients of herd/hivelike behaviours, it would be total and utter mayhem, they’d eventually (only a matter of time) be mowed down without remorse.
Of course they’d do everything in their powers to FSCK us up for inevitable doom. Hurling space rock onto cruelty and horrors of innate behaviors of rapacious primates.
However, that which isn’t accounted for is the fact that it only takes one to overthrow a silly hypothesis.
The flaw being the existence of reckless “omegas” that cares zero about obnoxious and extremely boring behaviors, may it be crazy elitist “alphas” or dullard herd “betas”.
It is only one way to be sure – all of ’em can go fsck themselves. Evolutionary dead ends.
😑
Hmmm. I’ll have what he’s having. I think.
Sure, it is called playing with a hypothesis. You know, making wild assumptions and then drawing obvious conclusions from there.
First help the halfwitted primate muppets with alien high tech, only to discover the dark sides of primate shenanigans.
Then realizing the(ir) grave mistake, hurling space rock at earth in dismay of the(ir) total and utter failure of understanding the psychosocial behaviors of rapacious primates.
Only to give it another chance, discovering a rerun of the previous madness. But this time, oh yes, oh boy. Extinction awaits – of our own doing. 🤘🤩
Hell yes, can’t have corruptible and cruel primate shenanigans threatening sentients with more reverence for liberty, compassion and evolutionary acceptance.
Here’s a lesson for rapacious muppets: If some things are too good to be true, it likely isn’t. Idiots playing with fire. Let’s go boom!
🚀🚀🚀
💥💥💥
☢️☢️☢️
🤣👍
/hypothesis off
Larry Niven imagined just this species in his Known Space series. Meet the Kzinti.
(From the Wikipedia article “Kzin”)
Kzinti evolved from a plains hunting felid on a planet slightly colder and drier than Earth. The Kzin word for their home planet translates as Homeworld. The world is often known as Kzinhome by the Kzinti themselves. The Kzin home world is the third planet orbiting the star 61 Ursae Majoris.
The Kzin civilization was at an iron-age technological level when an alien race called the Jotoki landed and made stealthy first contact with a tribe of primitive hunter/gatherer Kzinti. The Jotok were interstellar merchants looking for a species they could use as mercenaries.
Once the Jotok had taught the Kzinti how to use high-technology weapons and other devices (including spacecraft), the Kzin rebelled and made their former masters into slaves, as well as the occasional meal. The crest of the Riit (Royal) family appears to be a bite mark, but is in fact a dentate leaf, with the words “From mercenary to master.” written around it in Kzinti script.
Kzin society is extremely male dominated. The leader of the race is called the Patriarch, which is a hereditary title. The Kzinti call themselves “Heroes” or the “Heroes Race” and because they believe themselves to be “heroes”, their society places a very high value on “acting Heroic” and behaving in a heroic fashion.
To Kzin society, “heroic” means being honorable and having integrity. Kzin honor, called strakh, is similar in many ways to the samurai code of Bushido. Strakh serves as almost a sort of currency or favour system, since they do not use money in their culture. For example, if the Patriarch gets meat from a seller’s market stand, the seller gains considerable strakh, which will bring honour to the seller allowing him to get better customers, in turn leading to more strakh, giving the seller a higher status within the community.
Once Kzinti gained access to genetic-manipulation technology, they started manipulating themselves in order to bring out the most “heroic” qualities and recede undesired ones. To this end, because females are not valued except as bearers of children, the male-dominated Kzin society bred (most of) their own females into sub-sapience.
Holey moley, Tim, would you have been happy knowing our species went bonkers with another sentient species rear ends? It’s bad enough here on earth, just imagine the worst of the worst of rapacious primate shenanigans extending their horrors beyond the realm of earth.
Nah, obviously we can’t have it that way. If given the opportunity I’d backstab all humanoid shenanigans to conquer interstellar space. With a big grin of relief as the eternal nothingness awaits after the total and utter failure.
Most ones and zeros before collapse “wins”.
😁👍
You are right. Inflexibility plays a role. People are now convinced that the medical care system can save them and that any tiny risk to their health is unacceptable.
There are also many other people living so “close to the edge” that being laid off from work for two weeks (perhaps only for self-isolation) is a huge disaster.
Strange decisions are being made as a result. Also, there get to be two “sides.”
It is the same as modelling COVID-19. Never take into account economy….
Economists haven’t really understood the economy. This, by itself, makes it difficult to incorporate the economy. The economy is really a physics problem, but we don’t think about it that way. It has to do with how the goods and services that are made are distributed among the various players in the system.
Gail, thank you again for a most interesting meditation. Please allow me to add (briefly) one of my own.
What is energy? Not calories, not kilowatt hours, not windmill blades: on reflection, I decided that, for the human world, energy was the ability to do useful work. And the key word here is “useful”.
Cycling to work, or to shop, is useful, and it is also one of the most efficient ways to get that work done. John Kerry flying in his private jet to Iceland (to collect an award for his support of green energy, of all bizarre things) is not useful work; it is *waste*. He could have flown economy class on a commercial airline, or of course just stayed at home and collected the award in absentia.
When a US consumer buys an automobile, about 60% of that money is spent on waste: on a vehicle too large, too heavy, and filled with silly high technology frills he neither wanted nor could avoid. The same with a modern office building or apartment building. Who needs as office building with an infinity pool on the roof? Or one built like a helix, with trees planted in a spiral ramp that will need expensive coddling for all their brief lives.
Gail, I believe we use far, far more energy that we need to like happy, comfortable, and productive lives: as Joseph Tainter said, we are over invested in complexity, and much of that complexity is waste. But the people who rise to the top in a complex society are those who help create further complexity. The coming destruction of India’s centuries old and energy efficient farming system is another example of this problem.
Thank you for listening.
You are looking at one side of the story: what the buyer needs. I agree with you that there is an amazing amount of overbuilding.
The flip side of the story is that there needs to be a way for the rich to spend their money so it provides jobs for the rest of the people in the world. The pilot who flies John Kerry to Iceland needs a jobs, as do the people who build and maintain private jets. Schools need to have something to aim for. People need to learn to build new fancier private jets, for example.
I think this is what we are running into with COVID-19. There are two ways to theoretically fix the problem:
(1) Cheaply, with vitamin D, vitamin C, zinc, ivermectin, steroid drugs, and various other drugs that have been available cheaply for a long time.
(2) Expensively, with vaccines that need to be made to very exact specifications, and be kept under very specific conditions.
The latter choice provides lot and lots of jobs for people. Educations, freezers, and new vaccines, as the viruses evolves, for example.
As another example, a relative was talking to me about hearing assistive devices. There are multiple devices available. At the high end, a pair of hearing aids would cost something over $6,000. They would do a lot of fancy things with the sound, but there would be a latency problem. I expect talking and listening to a Zoom conference would be a problem, because you would hear everything a little after it is spoken.
At the low end, there are devices that have only a few adjustments. One is for a range of different levels of amplifications. Another is for suppression of background noise. There is no latency problem. Two of these devices would together cost less than $120. But they look strange–stick out of the ear. They sort of work for mild hearing loss.
I am sure that there are devices in between, as well.
Of course, how do you brag to your friends about the $120 devices, if they really work. A lot of people like to brag that they go the fanciest new model out.
Thank you, Gail, a most interesting counterpoint. Please allow me to think about it overnight (2100 here in Malta).
Gail, despite all I continually learn from you, I flatly refute this argument. Bigger-than-needs-to-be (beyond the sphere of wriggle room) is simply monstrous. It is, first of all, “ugly.” Whatever is “ugly” is out of step with principles of life. Yes, there is wriggle room and error in every proposition, but taken too far (as we have taken it) ugliness is simply suicidal.
I could have expressed this more to my liking: doing gross things to the natural world is like killing one of one’s children so that the others can have more to eat. You lose the trust, humanity and the compac that makes for community. The alternative could include everyone eating less, and, if necessary, dying together. That is valuing the inner person. Not valuing the inner person over mere physical survival is valuing a walking piece of meat over a human being.
Well said, Artleads.
I made sure to plant lots of old, highly-scented scented roses, as well as a proper kitchen garden, as I could foresee the need to experience their loveliness in times of great stress as well as healthy food.
And that’s why I am making my house beautiful inside, at little expense as I am good at making things – some rooms, not all. My latest project is an 18th-century style kitchen, which will be quite fairy tale, but also practical.
One has to try for total nourishment for the spirit….
Gail, on reflection I must strongly disagree with your comment. Here is a lead in: “The pilot who flies John Kerry to Iceland needs a job, as do the people who build and maintain private jets.”
Yes, but why *that* job? Take that pilot, and maybe 100 workers who built the jet, and the sole beneficiary is Kerry. Those same people could have managed internships for 500 young men, all of whom would have gone on to add wealth to far more people than one man. The production of waste diminishes all of society; if a very small number benefit => well, that is where we are, is it not?
all jobs consume (finite) energy
no exceptions
That’s not Robert’s point..
If above said hundreds of private jet manuf and servicing crew instead made implements / tools for low impact agriculture the resulting distribution of wealth would be spread around both in the human and natural realm more broadly and likely also more beneficially – assuming there regen agriculture task on previously diminished ecosystem.
Your argument is like: most photons always fly outward from the Sun for a while, and so what.. ?
but then we would be back to agrarian/peasant society—which nobody wants
but which we will probably get anyway
I’d rather have automated tractors and agricultural machines serviced and owned by the artisanry than having some dimwitted and obnoxious herder fly around the world spreading lies and sanctimonious hypocricy to the bamboozled herd of mostly useless eaters.
I say, FSCK ’em all, no remorse. Had enough of the dullard from the herd and herders in my life.
The “rockstars” of current cutting edge of small and midsize agribiz are certainly not dimwit herders. This takes serious brainiacs to figure it out..
Also I’m not so sure “nobody wants” to return to living on the land is correct statement / statistics, given the signs of falling apart – or at least wobbly state of IC, which is being registered in some capacity by many..
Right,
Smart ass owners/farmers running small scale agri businesses operations for sure is worthy of respect.
Keeping that earthly hoopla operational in the contemporary loonie herd environment isn’t exactly a cakewalk I can imagine.
Makes me wonder what exactly is the herd(ers) “good” for in the current era? I would say – absolutely nothing. Rather negative, burning resources with nothing to show for.
UBI to the useless eaters. Then send them packing to their origins of sleaze, sanctimony and hypocrisy. *Baaaa*, *moooo*. Be gone!
🤢🤮
Good riddance.
Seems you could be alluding to the late David Graeber’s theory of ‘bullshit jobs’ (he actually wrote a book called that), concerning work that had little or no social or economic value. Work that could be serving far more essential needs, or allowing more leisure for chronically overworked Americans. A fascinating read.
Graham Turner’s 2008/9 paper, ‘A Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Thirty Years of Reality’, found the standard run of the LtG model had a good fit to observed events since the model was published in 1972. Just as important in the model as declining resources was increased pollution from economic activity. The model includes one proxy for all pollution, which damages ecosystems and reduces carrying capacity. We are currently facing a tsunami of pollutants that are leading to multiple forms of ecosystem collapse. Warming from greenhouse gases is increasing droughts, floods and extreme weather, all of which reduce agricultural output. Acidification of oceans from CO2 is dissolving organisms at the bottom of the ocean food change, at the same time that plastic and industrial run off are directly poisoning or strangling ocean life. All are imposing costs on economy that are on the verge of triggering collapse. In various model scenarios, shifting to zero growth economy (production impact, population, and consumption) was the only path with a chance of averting collapse.
https://ideas.repec.org/p/cse/wpaper/2008-09.html
At best, you can (theoretically) slow down the rate at which you approach collapse. I don’t think it is possible to avoid it all together. We are dealing with infinite growth in a finite world. If you start with a bucket and sand, you will empty it using either a teaspoon or a tablespoon. It just goes faster with a tablespoon.
The authors of Limits to Growth thought that leaders everywhere would immediately take steps to reduce population growth and switch to nuclear (or something similar). This was the time when nuclear was believed to be a solution. It certainly didn’t turn out that way.
No. They also presented scenarios that could avoid collapse. The longer action is delayed to shift to steady state economy, the lower the ultimate equilibrium population that can be sustainably supported
‘Scenario 9: World Seeks Stable Population and Stable Industrial Output per Person, and Adds Pollution, Resource and Agricultural Technologies from 2002. Moving in this direction, in another scenario the world seeks stable population and stable industrial output per person, and adds pollution, resource and agricultural technologies starting in 2002. …
The society of this scenario manages to begin reducing its total burden on the environment before the year 2020; from that point the total ecological footprint of humanity is actually declining. The system brings itself down below its limits, avoids an uncontrolled collapse, maintains its standard of living, and holds itself very close to equilibrium.’
http://donellameadows.org/archives/a-synopsis-limits-to-growth-the-30-year-update/
Since growth is only possible with the production of a surplus, degrowth is not possible without the corollary of scarcity – leaving at least parts of the system without energy, food, capital or resources of other kinds to collapse.
That is a good point. Thank you!
“Zero growth” meaning “maintaining current levels of production impact, population, and consumption”?—do you seriously think this would be a path with a chance of averting collapse? I would rate that view as unreasonably optimistic.
LtG said this in 1972. Population had to stabilise by 2000. Now we are definitely in overshoot. The question is by how much we continue to overshoot.
The goal of LTG was to move collapse to after 2100. There was one (unrealistic) scenario in which this seemed to be possible.
No. They explored scenarios that could avoid collapse
http://donellameadows.org/archives/a-synopsis-limits-to-growth-the-30-year-update/
It makes me wonder, have I already collapsed? I just had a lack of noodles for dinner, still cold from the short bicycle trip home at -10C.
Yeah, I do wonder how that existence would be experienced for most OFW:ers?
But you know what, This princess of IC for sure ain’t complaining about some self imposed frugality. I got way bigger problems with the delusions of rapacious primates. Such as the hopium of avoiding collapse and chaos.
But, hey, don’t worry about me. I already got my supersonic ‘final remedy’ ready and willing, in the case my self imposed frugality turns into outright despair and starvation.
🤘🤩💥🔫
*BOOM* bye, motherfuckers!
Oh darling, you forgot to stock up with the noodles?
Maybe you should spend more time concentrating on what you are supposed to be doing instead of mouthing off nonsense on here.
And now you want to blast yourself because you had a short bike ride and darling had no noodles waiting for him? Damn IC princess.
Maybe you should go and rob the noodle store instead? “Hand over some noodles, princess!”
Your link relates to the 30 year update, not the original.
But original does the same, with same results. 30-year update just confirms and updates earlier modelling.
See Figure 45 WORLD MODEL WITH STABILIZED POPULATION AND CAPITAL p161-171 in 1972 Limits to Growth
A scan of the book can be downloaded from the Club of Rome here:
‘The book contains a message of hope, as well: Man can create a society in which he can live indefinitely on earth if he imposes limits on himself and his production of material goods to achieve a state of global equilibrium with population and production in carefully selected balance.’
https://www.clubofrome.org/publication/the-limits-to-growth/
The assumption is “we require that the number of babies born each year be equal to the expected number of deaths in the popu- lation that year.” This is an incredibly absurd assumption. This would mean limiting some families to less than one child, given the age structure the world was starting from. I pretty much discounted this scenario as complete nonsense.
Also, “To further reduce resource depletion and pollution, the economic preferences of society are shifted more toward services such as education and health facilities and less toward factory-produced material goods.”
These growing services can only be based on ever-growing complexity. This complexity leads to very serious wage disparity. This system cannot work for very long. This is the problem we are running into now. But the authors didn’t recognize this as a problem.
Also, having only two children per family is an unsustainable pattern. The system needs to incorporate a system of “survival of the best adapted.” If there are only two children per family, and health care keeps them all alive, new babies, on average, become less and less adapted to the world ecosystem as it changes. Also, a lot of children with inheritable diseases are kept alive, to pass these diseases on to their children. If humans hadn’t tried to fix things up, nature would handled it for us. Many of these children would have died before having children of their own.
Given that the model works at the global level, much of what you claim is not what it means at all. Without immigration, most wealthy countries have negative population growth, showing that aiming for population equilibrium is certainly possible. What is tricky is achieving it without increase in consumption and intensity of environmental technology impact
When you replace “complexity” with “complications” it is a much easier read.
Could we, you know, leave the misinterpretation of the word complexity behind and say what it really is. It is complications run amok that is the real issue. Life is astoundingly more complex than any artificial devise of mankind.
Just look at the large swaths of useless eaters (sanctimonious hypocrites) managing those complications. On top of the pre-existing ones constantly adds more to stay relevant and project their deluded view of how the world should work. It is the polished steaming turds of the pretentious bourgeoisie.
The words complexity and complication are closely related.
An old definition of complexity is “composite nature, quality or state of being composed of interconnected parts”
https://www.etymonline.com/word/complexity
According to this site,
Complication is “an additional disorder which develops during the course of an existing one”
hence, generally, “that which renders (an existing situation) complex, involved, or intricate.”
Complication commonly implies entanglement resulting either in difficulty of comprehension or in embarrassment; complexity, the multiplicity and not easily recognized relation of parts; as business complications; the complexity of a machine; the complexity of a question of duty.
I am afraid with this subject matter, I need to use the word complexity.
Well, that’s the definition I have in my head.
“complexity, the multiplicity and not easily recognized relation of parts”
Yes, like the intricacies of life, and machinery of various kind.
“Complication commonly implies entanglement resulting either in difficulty of comprehension”
Yup, pretty much human affairs. Have a good long look at the banking and finance hodgepodge and there it is. Cant be comprehended by rational beings, with other words, a racket made to be confusing.
Nature on the other hand, exquisite intricate and complex, yet so simple pieces of encoded information, perfect for evolution and reproduction. Fools no one, just is.
Our problems include complexity AND complications.
Complexity in ways of doing things is introduced to make a system operate more efficiently or to keep it running when it otherwise would be in danger of stopping. Complexity often manifests itself as innovation or as technological advance.
Conversely, complication is introduced in order to conceal from outsiders and especially from the general public what’s really going on. Complication often looks to outsiders superficially like stoopidity on the part of insiders.
To further complicate the situation, complication is often mistaken for complexity, even by the people doing the introducing. When things become more complex, it can be difficult to judge in advance whether additional complexity will improve the situation or merely complicate things further.
Also, while “complication” often has a generally negative connotation, it can also be positive in some instances. The Swiss mechanical watch industry has produced some fascinating and extremely attractive timepieces that have become known as “Complications” or even “Grand Complications.” I wouldn’t mind having one of these as a Christmas present, even if I did have to wind it up every morning.
https://www.patek.com/en/collection/grand-complications
Let me finish with an Einstein quotation:
“It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience.”
Speaking of nomenclature, I think the use of collapse by anthropologists tends to confuse as its layman’s definition implies sudden and total (or at least near total) failure. Perhaps another term like decline, reduction, contraction would be less likely to be misinterpreted.
Excellent book https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/energy-and-civilization
As Bill Gates has got it, we know his intentions.
Cool
What Is your facebook fast eddy?
I’m not a big fan of social media …. and would you believe it — I don’t have an Alexa or a tee vee.
The elites know. Both about the energy question and the debt money.
I don’t know why there are people who can’t conceive that. The elites are simply saving their own skin with Great Reset schemes, or Lockdowns, or with this Technocratic rise.
For example, Tim Watkins (CoS) and Tim Morgan (SEE) prefer to believe the elites as ignorant fools, with their utopian views, or blind eyes to the future.
No, both of you Tims should get off your high horses, the elites know and are there to sacrifice you while transitioning to a Neo-Feudal society, all the while lying to your face.
The only ones believing their lies are you – elites know about their own lies.
Not all Tims are as quite myopic as those two with regard to the strategy and aims of the elites.
This one can see a bit further as he’s stood, if not on the shoulders, then at least on the toes of giants. The attitude of elites towards the common people has generally been to treat them as slaves, serfs, servants or soldiers to be managed, controlled and ordered about, preferably at third or forth hand. Besides being deplorables, commoners have also always been considered expendibles, and the real war—which has never really ended and is about to get hotter in line with the deteriorating energy situation—has always been the class war.
If we zoom out – In a way it’s a form of husbandry or agriculture, plain and simple, thereby ordinary people locked down by forced social and econ agendas are no different from cattle behind corral or poultry inside chicken pen.
Call me naive, but I think you credit elites with far too much understanding and foresight. To my eye, their actions indicate a cluelessness exceeding most commoners, who aren’t buffered from the so-called school of hard knocks. My impression is that those for whom life has been especially easy don’t think too hard or deeply about their circumstances, realize how coddled their world is, or perceive their position as artificially boosted rather than merited.
Now I have no doubt the elites will throw us serfs under the bus to help themselves; that is what elites have always done throughout history. The decline of Rome offers a superb example of this.
But the idea of deliberately and recklessly crashing a mass consumption economy upon which their wealth depends strikes me as fundamentally illogical.
Not that the response to the virus hasn’t been thoroughly irrational. The shocking idiocy coming from the top has me perennially questioning the intelligence of our supposed elites. And well before covid. The all too numerous colossal failures of judgement with their catastrophic consequences that were all too predictable (by more than a few non-elites) inspires little confidence in elite’s long term planning.
For instance, the few times I’ve watched Bill Gates speeches about some allegedly important problem, I’ve been stunned about how incredibly naive and ignorant he appeared to be about many things that any reasonably well informed peon would have known as plainly obvious or old news. I was thoroughly unimpressed by his lack of knowledge of the most basic facts of history, common cultural understandings. or how the world actually works.
Aren’t we all princesses of IC, blinded by the myopia of the ordinary while passing judgements of a world without any deeper reflections of its underpinnings.
It is fucking convenient to believe in fairy tales and easy to lie to oneself. What is severely lacking in most people is the brutality of the inner critic.
OFW is such a sanctuary, however, not even here is it all clear from the contorted narratives flourishing in the wild.
All of Vaclav Smil’s books are excellent and fairly inexpensive. This one is from 2018.
Gail, your articles offer great opportunities to think about the issues you mention. My comments:
(a) Collapse is preceded by stagnation of a system designed to require growth. Collapse may not happen everywhere at the same time. Partial collapse is also possible with a stabilization at lower consumption levels, possibly together with currency reforms. A resource war may also precede or cover up a collapse caused by factors other than war. Covid19 can be considered as a hidden bio-war. Its impact is similar to peak oil, namely to restrict movements. We are also at war with nature by burning fossil fuels, a war we are going to lose because nature is not a debating partner. BP has recently declared an oil demand peak by using CO2 reduction scenarios.
(b) Governments do not like limits to growth nor do they (try to) understand it. Members of Parliament and other decision makers in government departments are usually not educated in energy and system dynamics. But they will pull all levers to avoid the collapse of subsystems. They will use quantitative easing, media campaigns to keep the system going, promises to create jobs etc.
(c) Limits to production of conventional crude oil started in 2005 which was the root cause for the 2008 oil price spike (along with China’s additional oil demand for the Olympic Games). Much of the debt problem started then
(d) “Why haven’t oil prices risen more, with all of the stimulus that has been added?”. For that question to answer you would have to analyze these stimulus packages country by country and their impact on oil demand. The US is well researched in this regard. The Fed’s QE provided funds for the unconventional tight oil boom which has kept the world alive. Next candidate to look at would be QE in China where oil demand has grown incessantly. Then QE in Europe.
Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 1)
https://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-asia-update-june-2020-part-1
(e) Much of the stimulus has gone into an asset bubble and it’s all denied, even now
Asset bubbles no worry for Lowe (Australia’s RBA governor)
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/cheap-money-not-blowing-dangerous-bubbles-rba-20210203-p56z6m
(f) The focus is too much on the global peak. Peaking of oil production happens in stages, country by country and region by region. The impacts are very different. The 2000 peak in Australia, for example, was not critical because of the many commodities this country can export as long as the oil is flowing. However, 4 refineries closed, making Australia more dependent on fuel imports from East Asia, through the minefield of the South China Sea. That increased complexity, yes.
(g) Not recognizing complexities, lack of know-how to manage them, denial of problems and wishful thinking would be the main causes of collapse
I generally agree with your observations. I am not sure about the last one, however.
” Not recognizing complexities, lack of know-how to manage them, denial of problems and wishful thinking would be the main causes of collapse.”
I think collapse occurs because of lower energy consumption per capita. Supply lines break. The total amount of goods and services produced worldwide falls, and the self-organizing system distributes the goods are available in a way that favors a subset of the participants (those who can most effectively use the available resources) over others. Many people, businesses, and governments get squeezed out.
“(…)The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others.”
I see what you did there. And I like it.
👩🏫
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/30256/scientist-behind-the-navys-ufo-patents-has-now-filed-one-for-a-compact-fusion-reactor
A scalable fusion reactor will solve our energy problems I hope
Interesting idea…..difficult to put into practice, if it is even fusion feasible.
When will this guy actually build it?
It is an example of the law of increasing complexity, we are now supposedly going to create a device that constantly spins, and while spinning, actively creating enormous magnetic fields and consuming power while doing so. All the while merrily dealing with the enormous heat and emission of NEUTRONS.
Even the material considerations and their long term survival of the heat and the Neutron bombardment defy belief. This is HOPIUM.
Even the MIT SPARC reactor, is only going to supposedly create an EROI of……drum roll 2!!!! Of course it is theoretically possible to get to an EROI of…..10! If all the fairies line up and sing together.
Don’t even consider the ITER reactor that, for $30-40B dollars will never generate a single kW of electrical power, and will destroy a major river for its cooling capacity.
My advice…drop the hopium.
the ultimate bottom line on the fusion-energy thing is :
we don’t so much have have an energy problem, as a problem finding a use for it
If we did have unlimited free electrical power, it is frightening to think of what we would do with it.
the answer is—nothing much in excess of what we do now.
you have wires coming into your house–until you attach a device to them, they are just–wires.
there are only just so many gadgets/lights you can use at any one time, and all those gadgets need fossil fuels to produce.
put street lights everywhere and you screw the planet even more than now
attach them to a transport system—we can’t spend all our days travelling from a to b. doesn’t make sense. You can’t install electric transport everywhere.
attach them to a weapons system, see above, they need fossil fuels to produce. If one side produced an electric super weapon, the other side would too–hence a wasted energy stalemate. Like nukes.
Not possible to destroy half the world, then live on the other half in a techno-utopia.
you can’t have electric planes or ships–or if you can, the technology hasn’t yet been invented,–same applies to space lifting or anything like that. Our techno-window to come up with anything is closing fast. (and that includes fusion power too.)
there’s no such thing as a free lunch, or electric power.
Wires transmit power, they produce no ‘work’ without the means to do so.
I admit I might have missed a trick here, but can’t see what it might be?
Jesse, energy from fusion has been proven feasible over 5 billion years. All we have to do is learn how to use it wisely, just as our ancestors did. The only real problem is energy flux density, and the reason it is still a problem is that nobody can get a billion dollar research grant solving it.
I still believe that the Achilles heel of our civilisation is our fixed belief that we should work against Nature, not with her.
Which seems to stem from the era of Lord Bacon, and his professed desire to break into Nature’s secrets and exploit her by force.
And so now she looks for her revenge on our arrogance.
The bio-phobic Transhumanists are in for a rude shock.
Thank you, Xabier; the “Novum organum” of 1620, and the “New Atlantis” of 1627. I always felt disquiet at those works; it took me a very long time to work out why.
Well, “we” get billions of dollars to produce various forms of frippery that goes under the disguise of “science”. Which in reality only perpetrates the dogmas of pretentious dullards awarding themselves prizes and money for nothing. If at least the chicks would be for free.
Yes, pouring money at the problem will solve nothing. First you have to purge the system of useless eaters and their disgusting traits of sanctimonious hypocrisy and unfounded prestige.
“seeming coincidences that have allowed life on earth to take hold and flourish”
Actually, Alfred Russel Wallace, co-proposer with Darwin of the concept of natural selection publishes a book 1904 on this, Man’s Place in the Universe, in which he proposed the likelihood of another similar world to ours being suited for life, let alone humankind, to be utterly remote. He discusses what he considers the elements necessary for life and the known universe of his day and draws the conclusion no other world with life will be found.
moss, we know now that the universe is about a trillion times bigger than we believed in 1904. Wallace’s book is almost as outdated and absurd as the pope who pronounced infallibly that the antipodes did not exist. (Pope Zachary in 748, some 1400 years after the expedition sponsored by Necho II had circumnavigated Africa and proved that the antipodes did indeed exist; the story is told by Herodotus)
It is interesting that people were thinking about this issue, way back in 1904.
The question has crossed my mind: Did God make the universe, just for humans? This could have happened 20 billion years ago.
Ours span of ~20B yrs doesn’t have to necessarily equal God’s pace, perhaps our (under) universe is just a high school lab experiment (upper universe) to be flushed later afternoon into the laboratory sink as the kids disperse home.. or worse it’s just mere simulation run experiment.
The average person seems to believe we are right on the cusp of returning to pre covid BAU and seem angry if even the tiniest bit of possibility that this wont occur is asserted. An article like this would be like swallowing a ham bone for most people.
Yes all the mask wearing will soon have fantastic results. When it doesnt it wont take much to get out the torchs and pitchforks for those not vaxed. There is a lot of sub surface rage at circumstances and how much they have (direct quote) “sacrificed so things can get better”. Because as we all know.
Everyone will be having sex with their dream partner once everybody gets vaxxed.
The economy will boom once everyone gets VAXXED
All the businesses will re open once everyone gets vaxxed
Everyone will get that home and nice EV once everyone gets vaxxed and he new green deal is implemented.
People really believe this. They really believe that the only thing preventing everything not being peachy is people not getting on board not just with the vax but with the “reset”. Basically old people. Old people are screwing up their life.
In the last week alone I’ve spoken to several younger people (in their 20s and 30s) who are unwilling to accept a “Covid-19 vaccine”, although I note that they may have been a minority of the general public as all of them were intellectually or academically inclined. The idea that this “vaccination” technique (mRNA) is an experimental genetic therapy and that anyone taking it is making themselves the equivalent of Guinea pig is gaining traction, and many young people are also well aware that Covid-19″ is just another cold for healthy people in their age group.
Gail – There is a Howard Odum/emergy rabbit hole right next to you. Don’t fall in!
I have met his daughter Mary.
Considerations on 5G
“This brings me to the Internet of Things (IoT) and Industrial IoT (I-IoT), machine-to-machine communication. The industry frequently claims that 5G is necessary to the IoT. Yet, 5G might actually add confusion to an already vast and complex IoT market3, where infrastructures already compete with each other. In a factory, however, robots, cameras, cutting lasers, high-precision drills, etc. (which need low-latency connections on highly automated production chains) could benefit from an on-site private 5G network with increased security. This does not require a public 5G network.”
https://wsimag.com/science-and-technology/64670-how-deep-is-5g-fake-news
Yes, However it is still a requirement actually a demand of IoT and I-Iot and 5G to have electricty, and the modern communication systems and data centers are massive consumers of reliable, stable on demand electricty. RE Wind and Solar just won’t cut cut it.
I think this statement is one of the best I have seen in a long time, and Gail hits it on the head.
“Regarding (iv), the available energy supply from wind and solar (net or otherwise) is tiny relative to the total energy required to operate the world economy. This issue, alone, would disqualify a Great Reset using wind and solar from truly being a solution for today’s problems.”
Gail, sorry if this is too far off topic. I posted it because the described level of technological “busy-ness” seems to be a big part of what’s keeping us going, even if it seems incredibly overwrought and out of step with true affordability. But putting up with the busy-ness while avoiding the extremes promised by 5G seemed better than nothing.
A good point, Artleads, and probably valid with today’s technology. But robots, drills &c are mechanical devices; they need neither megabytes of data nor microsecond communications. Sixty years ago, the large machine shop in the gasworks where my uncle was a foreman had just one electric motor; all the machines were powered by belt drives, pulleys, and hand operated controls. The detail work was done by skilled humans, and in real terms paid better than most blue collar jobs today. This was not the Middle Ages; it was 1960s technology. It would all still work today. And by the way, the electricity was generated on site.
I wonder how 5G without enough chips would work.
The first chart if true is quite cheery! A decade b4 we are deep in the doo doo.
A decade ? So generous !
It is true. Maybe things do unfold slowly. We just don’t know. For example, we can see the financial system failing in the near future, but central banks around the world seem to be aware of this difficulty. They are busy trying to prepare digital currencies that will work, at least somewhat, as a substitute.
Thank you Gail. Great article. On a side note a friend of mine was just in a car accident. There is not much left of one of her leg bones. It looks like they are not going to amputate. As dire as things look it could be worse. Stay safe. Dont let the weird times change the things that keep you safe. The only thing worse than weird times is weird times all messed up.
I seem to stay safe. I haven’t had as much as a cold since March 2020. I get lots of sunshine and exercise.
When the era of coal peaked before the WW1, there was a big church dedicated to the Devine Saviour built in the energy centre of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the town of Ostrava in the Upper Silesia coal region.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cathedral_of_the_Divine_Saviour
In between, the region of Ostrava peaked and started to decline and its population is going down, too.
Last year a new church of Christ the Saviour was consecrated in Prague, the capital of the Czech Republic, that attracts the population from the declining regions of the Czech Republic, including Ostrava region.
This new church is more like a community centre, an energy efficient building with inner insulation made of autoclaved aerated concrete blocks:
https://youtu.be/8vI6-Dnx934
With the ageing populations, there is need for more thermoregulation, i.e. more on demand heating/cooling and insulation.
The spread of viruses adds another level of complexity, that makes the existence of the community buildings questionable…
https://youtu.be/FCT3kPv9cFY
Probably, what is needed is a drafty unheated and uncooled building, such as was available in the Middle Ages. No one would consider that, however.
Gail, I know that you tend to understate your warnings about the state of the economy and the energy system. But over the past year, you seem to have become more concerned than previously. And your statement in this post that the world economy today seems to be near collapse is as close to shouting “we’re doomed!” as you have yet come.
An economy can be fairly described as a self-organizing system if individual participants are allowed to manage their own roles in it. But when large slices of an economy is controlled by powerful and close to monopolistic forces and governments and central banks attempt to actively manage it and compensate for its unwanted self-organizing tendencies, the result is bound to be something else.
Do you have any thoughts on how the dance between the “natural” forces and the “guiding hand” of the would-be controllers of the economy is likely to play out? I have this image in my mind of our current situation as a juggler keeping dozens of balls in the air and occasionally dropping one or two, and of collapse as the point where the juggler gives up and all the balls come down to earth at once.
It seems to me that self-organizing forces extend to governments, forcing citizens to act in a specific way. In a sense, these governments are using their energy to control the action of their citizens, allowing a greater “push” in a particular direction than otherwise.
There is also the influence of international publications. I know that when I visited in China in 2011 and met with a number of high ranking officials associated in some way with the government, I was appalled that they were reading the same nonsense that was being published in the US. At that time, the hype was all about natural gas from shale formations being the world’s energy savior. In a sense, these publications distort thinking in the same direction. Publications influencing individuals to aim their studies in the direction of conservation and renewable energy invariably talk about all of the pluses and none of the minuses. Everyone assumes that electricity prices will rise and the new solutions will work. They assume that intermittency can be smoothed out with long enough transmission lines.
Other international publications keep talking about climate change and what supposedly can be done to stop climate change.
Publications, including textbooks aimed at students, all have to be ones that tell an uplifting story, suggesting that jobs in the fields that they are interested in will be available for the long term. (I have been told this directly by book publishers.) Thus, we are dealing with 100% nonsense being published. Bigwigs are too lazy to stop and think about the real situation.
We know that conflict arises. We end up with two stories “out there.” There is the group that says, “Infinite growth in a finite world cannot work.” There is a group that says, “We read all of the academic studies, and this is what they say.” Eventually, this has to resolve.
I wonder who issued this order…..
Publications, including textbooks aimed at students, all have to be ones that tell an uplifting story, suggesting that jobs in the fields that they are interested in will be available for the long term. (I have been told this directly by book publishers.)
Somebody that wants a society of the herd and herders. Obviously.
Can’t you catch the whiff of mangling the shenanigans of a pack living primate species into a herd and herders.
No wonder the world is in a state of despair. Cant sucessfully run a society of pack psychosocial behaviour in a herd setting.
As I have stated: Dope to the sane ones, offering some escapism from the bovine manure droppings imposed upon us.
The same folks who:
1. Killed JFK
2. Did not investigate the Epstein assassination and ordered the MSM to call it suicide
3. Did not investigate the hit on Seth Rich and ordered the MSM to call it robbery
4. Ordered the FBI to invent Russiagate
5. Ordered the FBI to not investigate Biden corruption even though the CEO of Biden Inc was willing to testify against the family. And ordered the MSM to completely ignore the allegations.
6. Who invented this Covid Plan and ordered the MSM to ignore/ridicule anyone including the experts who authored the Great Barrington Declaration who opposes the Plan.
7. Who ordered political and business leaders across the planet to support the Covid Plan (or at least not push back)
Think about that — how is is possible to force ALL MSM outlets across the planet to sing the same tune?
How is it possible to convince titans of industry to perform back up dance routines when they can see their businesses headed to the bottom of the ocean due all because of a bad flu?
“Some of the biggest men in the United States, in the field of commerce and manufacture, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it.” ― Woodrow Wilson
“I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, … The man that controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply.” Nathan Rothschild
“Once a nation parts with the control of its currency and credit, it matters not who makes the nation’s laws. … Until the control of the issue of currency and credit is restored to government and recognized as its most sacred responsibility, all talk of the sovereignty of parliament and of democracy is idle and futile.” — Mackenzie King, Canadian Prime Minister 1935-1948.
“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.” – Woodrow Wilson, after signing the Federal Reserve into existence
… The Elders….
Well, what would the shenanigans of the herders be without the herd? Nobody looking up to their machinations of “social status”
A bunch of omegas in the artisanry that doesn’t particularly care about their initiation rituals, pomp and regalia.
Nah, nope, don’t care about some dullard elitist schmucks, their dorky acts, sociopathy, psychopathy and debauchery.
Short history of the oil crash, 2008 to Current.
Oil Crashes(Highest price just before crash)-Next Crash = Time between
2008($147)-2014 = 6 years
2014($110)-2018 = 4 years
2018($75)-2020 = 2 years
2020($61)-one year and counting.
Today’s price $55.89
The worlds economy can no longer afford the energy it needs.
therefore only the parts of the world which can still afford it will continue to use it, until no one can.
Very intresting
Watch the end of Simon Michaux’s excellent documentary to see his conclusions about the prospects of any energy transition. Start at the 57 minutes and 2 seconds point:
some very good doom there.
“Oil as an industrial energy source is probably about to become unreliable.”
“The ‘After Oil’ plan is needed now.”
I think he’s on the right track, except for the timing.
IC is still up and running, though with about 10% less FF than in 2019. Any “after oil” scenario is at least a decade or two away.
the “energy transition” is here now, where FF is used to make small portions of non-renewable equipment to produce energy from solar and wind.
that’s it, and that’s all it ever will be. A partial transition, and never anything more.
the big question remaining is if the oil industry everywhere will be nationalized to remove the price and profitability problem, and enable this feeble partial transition to continue for a decade or two longer.
The idea of nationalization of oil/energy industries (and possibly others) and what that would look like has been swirling around in the back of my mind for a while. It seems like recent attempts by countries to do this with their oil production has not turned out well. The only way I could see it working at all would be under war like conditions similar to what happened during WWII. I think it is inevitable that it will be tried though if govt’s want to try and keep the lights on. I see rationing in the near future.
“Under war”? Correct, Covid war!
Excellent presentation. However, I don’t think the people in charge are interested in converting 280+ million U.S. ICE vehicles to EV, let alone converting the rest of the global vehicle fleet.
It’s hard for people to imagine a future for themselves that isn’t a continuation of their present circumstances. What if the plan is to get rid of ICE vehicles entirely and use EVs but limit personal transportation and vehicle ownership? In short, EVs for the people in charge but not for the masses? There are a variety of ways this could be carried out; from making EVs too expensive for the masses to changing the nature of work (e.g. telecommuting) so that personal transportation and vehicle ownership are less of a requirement for daily life. We’re already witnessing demand destruction for personal transportation during the lockdowns. How about future scamdemics? How about future lockdowns as a means of further eroding car culture and limiting the mobility of the masses?
you may have missed the point and purpose of transportation in a modern society.
we currently move ourselves from place to place and back again in order to deliver a ‘productive purpose’–ie work and wages.
Work and wages gives purpose to the society in which we function.
before we had universal transport, people walked to their place of work–ie in the fields mostly
only the wealthy elite had ‘transport’ which was horse powered. They did not work, they just owned the means of energy production, and lived off the excess. (otherwise known as the fat of the land)
we cannot revert to only the elite having EVs, because EVs (or any powered vehicle) are a (complex) product of an industrial society.
You cannot deliver the complexity of (even limited) powered transport from a pedestrian society—just doesn’t work I’m afraid.
Imagine tyre plants, paint, metal pressings, batteries, wiring etc–to say nothing of roads and infrastructure.
Thank you for your thoughts, Norman. I’d consider walking to the fields in pre-industrial civilization as essential commuting given that the worker had to provide their muscle, skill and experience directly on site. In our own time, however, was all of the commuting being done pre-lockdown essential? For example, office workers driving long commutes just to go sit and work on their computers all day? Many employers have separated their workforce along the line of who is “essential” to on-site operations and who is not. Any work that can be done via telecommuting is increasingly being shifted in that direction. In the case of your manufacturing example, any work that couldn’t be automated or shifted to telecommuting would require “essential workers” on-site. Those workers could potentially each drive their own vehicles to work (least energy efficient), bus in as a large group, or live within walking distance to the factory or even live in on-site housing (most energy efficient).
“Work and wages gives purpose to the society in which we function.”
I’d agree with you, although this is being undermined by what we’re seeing now: massive unemployment (26.3% in the US as of November 2020, according to shadowstats.com), frequent discussion of stimulus checks, and the occasional pointing towards a universal basic income (UBI).
I don’t see how or when the masses are going to be able to get back on the road to pre-scamdemic levels. “Essential workers” need to be able to commute but “non-essential workers” and the unemployed don’t. The chronically unemployed will be unable to afford vehicles. As for the wealthy? Well, they’d like to keep driving Teslas.
The ending is good, except that he ends up saying that we need a substitute for batteries. The substitute needs to use resources that are more readily available.
It seems to me that we actually need a substitute for pretty much everything: oil, coal, natural gas, batteries, solar panels. All of these are facing diminishing returns in their production, or in the commodities used in their production. I don’t think we have any minerals available that are not in some way becoming difficult to extract.
so many of these wheezes seems to boil down to wish science
Dear Gail,
Thank you so much for your excellent work.
On the strength of your analyses, we had a shallow well dug and lined with concrete pipes and are going to town soon to pick up the hand-pump for that well. We have also found a small wood stove from Australia, the Nectre 350 that has an oven, a fire box my husband can watch and a cook top. We are as snug as possible here on our little farm. Just wait till my family shows up!
Maxine Rogers
It looks like you are aiming for about the right level of complexity. Find devices that look to be long lasting.
Folks I work in the Manufacturing & Transportation industry and right now we are seeing order demands for product (vehicles) that are on par with 2018 which was a record year for industry, now in 2021 we are seeing record demand and the global supply chain is having major challenges attempting to respond to this substantial demand. It must tie into Gail’s thesis on energy, right?
of course, interest rates on loans for vehicles are about as low as they can possibly go, so that is part of the demand equation.
the bAU party is not over yet (though every year there will be people/countries who must leave the party involuntarily.)
also, the massive handouts in the UK and USA seem to be ongoing.
so a rebound from 2020 is not surprising, especially with some optimism because of the vaccines.
any rebound will be short lived, as handouts diminish and reality returns.
speaking of vaccines:
https://www.thefarside.com/2021/02/02
The Vaccination Man (the fourth cartoon down.)
Cartoon number 5 is pretty good too.
I get your drift.
It is the low interest rates and available debt that is driving demand. Broken supply lines (particularly chips) is leading to fewer of some vehicles being built, however.
Gail is correct. I work in the renewable energy industry as a mechanical engineer. More than 90% of the wind and solar projects are funded by taxpayers, in some fashion, because the EROEI is so poor, no sane private or public company would touch it. Sorry to hurt your feelings, but the world has been sold a Fairy Tail. It is physically and financially impossible for R.E. to replace fossil fuels in any meaningful way. BTW- electric vehicles are a joke. Coal used to produce the electricity is a FAR WORSE solution than anyone realizes, yet. I challenge any degreed engineer to a debate on the matter.
Here: https://cleantechnica.com/2016/09/02/renewable-energy-facts-electric-vehicle-facts-answers/
The CleanTechnica Answer Box (Renewable Energy & Electric Vehicle Answers To Common Myths)
is some who thinks that ‘renewables’ are ‘the answer’?
This article gives “pie in the sky” responses.
It seems like article by groups that stand to make money from renewables always end up coming to favorable conclusions about them.
They miss major points, such as our big energy needs come in the winter, when it is cold and dark outside. Solar panels don’t work well in winter and wind is not reliable in winter.
I also work in this area and have to agree with you. We like nice stories, even when reality contradicts them, we don’t want to lose faith in them because they sound so nice.
… and also because your job depend on those nice stories.
Tim M, I accept your challenge to a debate. And I accept your comments and stand foursquare behind them. You are right.
I have been saying for over 20 years that the only benefit of electric cars is that they move the pollution from the tailpipe of the car to the smokestack of the power station. And yes, coal power makes the problem far worse, as I found out in China. I also calculated the life cycle cost of wind power, and satisfied myself that it was an energy sink. Solar power has a slightly better ERORI, but the sheer scale of the problem makes it more polluting than fossil fuel, because of mining for production, land sterilisation when in use, and leached out carcinogens during life and after decommissioning.
The only alternative to fossil fuel is collapse, and we now see.
A recent article appeared in RenewEconomy.
“South Autralia – as first reported exclusively by RenewEconomy three months ago – served all of its electricity demand for more than an hour shortly after mid-day on October 11 through rooftop and utility scale solar.” So they actually managed one hour, most likely during the portion of the day when solar was at its peak. The article notes that demand was way down, my guess is it is probably due to industry fleeing SA.
They then claim that the price of electricity in SA is cheaper than in any other Aussie state. My guess is that it was cheaper for perhaps an hour during low demand, hence the retail price was driven down momentarily.
Folks on LinkedIn, where a post highlighted this, were cheering on the “renewable energy achievement”.
It seems that the pandemic has created many effects that people might have expected after peak oil. Or, are these impacts closer to what would be expected during collapse. Staying home to avoid getting Covid-`10 meant we drove 45% fewer miles than in 2019, dined out far less than in previous years, and did not travel long distances by air or car to visit family and friends. Supply lines for various good and services are being disrupted or disappearing resulting in short term outages or products disappearing. It has also been estimated that 110,000 restaurants will close in the next few years, 20% of churches could close in the next couple years,and 500 colleges could close their doors. These impacts do not appear linked to energy or debt, or are they?
I think that the strange response world governments made to COVID-19 was really linked to energy shortages as much as it was to the virus.
When a person goes back and looks at the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic, there were nowhere nearly as many closures, certainly not for a long term. When I looked at the magazine St. Olaf College sends to its alumni, it had an article about how the school dealt with the Spanish Flu. Sick students were treated right on campus, rather than sending them to the hospital. Student nurses helped professional nurses do this. Students from the Home Ec Department prepared food for the sick students. Everyone was issued a mask.
About 100 students out of a student body of 550 came down with the flu; 4 died.
The outbreak began the first week in October 2018. Campus was closed a week early, before Christmas break. It was back to normal, on January 3, 1919. So the total time elapsed was three months.
I think that the current response to COVID is definitely energy-related. If businesses weren’t doing well to begin with, closing them might seem like a good idea. If there had been protests about low wages, closures would solve this problem as well.
People in recent years have had extraordinarily strong views that the health care system can save and protect them. At the same time, they are very worried about a bad result, and would be happy to stay inside indefinitely. These views go along with the ridiculous charges that the health care system has been able to make in recent years. All of these are very closely related to an economy that is trying to make jobs for people in “health care” because a lot of other segments of the economy aren’t providing jobs any more.
The self-organizing economy works in incredibly strange ways to make things work out as needed. Closing down all except the essential segments of the economy and keeping people who were fearful of disease at home was, in a way, a stroke of genius. Energy consumption could fall without letting the whole system fall apart.
Gail, how do you account for the extraordinary efforts of Gates, Schwab and the rest of the “Great Reset” claque? Do you think they have just sprung up out of necessity, like fruiting bodies to organize the “self-“organization?
Certainly the St. Olaf College response is more sane and comprehensible than what we are seeing now. What we are seeing now is orders of magnitude more expensive and wasteful and destructive in terms of time, energy, resources, money, health, etc. Biden has lost track of 20 million doses of vaccine, apparently (oh well, that’s just about $400million, someone has estimated..)
How is it that the less we have, the more we seem frantic to squander? That’s the part that’s hardest for me to get my head around.
Well, Lidia, I would see them as being a bit like Hitler: they both out of history and also work very vigorously to shape it.
When you are out of ideas and aims it’s usually a good idea to throw some manure (money/debt) into the fan hoping that something will stick of what is flung about. At least you can spray the stench of hopium on the herd and the herders.
It is dullard rapacious primates doing what they are best at; being useless, hoping that Lady Luck will sort out this pesky predicament.
I suppose the efforts of the Great Reset group are based on the idea that they themselves (and some of the other elite) would come out well, while allowing governments and at least some of the elite to remain in control.
They probably realize that there won’t be enough resources to go around. They see that this is a way to keep the system going. They probably don’t realize what a bad choice intermittent wind and solar really are.
Sounds a bit too much like a Qanon conspiracy theory to me. And I say this respectfully. You think the secret puppeteers are keeping everything on the QT?
Paulo, it’s not a conspiracy in the least. Just go to wef.org and it’s all right out there in the open. They are not asking permission: “To improve the state of the world, the World Economic Forum is starting The Great Reset initiative.”
https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/
One big difference between the Spanish Flue 100 years ago and Covid19 is the high mobility now and the low mobility then. Think of the many Wuhan flights in January 2020 which spread the virus worldwide within days
“I think that the strange response world governments made to COVID-19 was really linked to energy shortages as much as it was to the virus.”
I’ve been thinking this for quite a while now.
Imagine being a politician eager to keep your job.
Can you do anything about the climate?
No.
Have you got a substitute for fossil fuels? No. Can you make infinite growth on a finite planet work?
No.
Can you shout “deadly virus” and then follow up with all sorts of measures diverting peoples focus away from the issues above?
Yes.
Let’s imagine that you have a 5-10 Year Plan to ‘digitize everything that can be digitized’ (Schwab); identify and dismantle ‘inessential’ sectors of the economy and those that are fast failing (department stores, SME’s, restaurants, etc); cut highly wasteful mass consumption; move away from ‘legacy’ ways of living and doing business; radically change supply chains, impose rationing, etc.
Let’s imagine, too, that you can see all too clearly the dire state of financial BAU, the pensions hole, the growth cliff, etc, and believe that moving to zero rates and digital money might be an appropriate strategy. It doesn’t matter of this is a false belief, just so long as it seems plausible for those who have their hands on the levers of power and influence – just as deluded generals will often put idiotic campaigns in motion, because they can.
Let’s suppose, also, that you foresee the potential for considerable social unrest and violence, and security considerations therefore require a population greatly restricted in movement and fully monitored – even under effective house arrest, human and civil rights more or less abolished on an ’emergency’ basis.
And let’s imagine that you wish to force profound changes in energy production and use, and modify population levels; with – as the extra icing on the crazy cake, – the desire to realise the Transhumanist fantasy of the Singularity and the creation of the ‘AI God-mind’, which will solve all remaining existential and energy problems with amazing computational power.
But this policy cannot possibly be declared, and no one would ever vote for it, implying as it does mass bankruptcies and permanent unemployment for many, and the abrupt loss of a whole and very comfortable way of life for much of the population.
The answer?
COVID 19 (21, 22….) and all the strategies applied to ‘fight’ it.
Correlation is certainly not proof of causation, but it does correlate very well indeed, enough to provoke thought at least.
Gail, I have follow your work and when I sit back with a nice glass our bourbon and ponder what you are saying, your observations are terrifying, and I am one who has been preparing for years..
This article is sort of worrying. The pieces all fit together, when you sit down and look at them.
I suppose I could have titled the article, “How the economy really works and what is really going wrong.” The things I am saying are obvious, when you think about them.
Gail, in a world of almost total deceit and delusion, the ability to see the obvious is a rare gift. That is one of the many reasons why I treasure your comments on OFW. May your shadow never grow less.
I am wondering if Gail’s article may be selling technological innovation a little short. I am by no means a cornucopian but the cost of extracting or generating any source of energy depends on the technology used. Fracking up-ended a lot of Peak Oil predictions.
Nuclear is still much underutilized and could come into play in a tight situation. Much of the cost of nuclear is due to excessive safety regulations that could be easily re-written. And if new forms of nuclear generation are developed then things break wide open.
the affordable cost of generating/extracting any source of energy depends on the corresponding user being able to afford to use it, not the technology used.
Cheap surplus energy has allowed us to have technology. Technology will never deliver cheap energy, though for a while it may look that way.
ultimately it is the user who pays for extraction.
if not enough money is underpinned by the ‘energy circulation’ in the economic system, then the energy source, in whatever form, will stay in the ground and never be used
The cost of energy comes from the cost of the inputs vs. the amount of energy created. Nuclear power is already wildly cheap when the excess safety regulations are removed.
The affordability of energy can be solved with subsidies or printing money. Once you get into economics/income you go down a rabbit hole that never ends.
The best way to evaluate the affordability of any energy source is the cost of inputs vs. energy produced- period.
If a technology creates cheap energy, then it is cheap energy regardless of how a society distributes income.
all comes down to ‘opinion’ and points of view I guess.
but right now Saudi has just about the freest flowing ‘easy’ oil available in the most volume. The ghawar field.
But Saudi is also having to cut back on the freebies they normally hand out to themselves, and cut back on oil production volumes, because the world at large can no longer afford to buy their oil at ca price that would allow really profitable production.
Human driven industry is just a colossal ‘energy converter’. We convert oil coal and gas into other usable commodities. If those finished commodities cannot be profitably traded, then the energy resource (fossil fuel) stays in the ground. which is exactly what is happening right now.
Fossil fuels in the ground have a ‘price’, they do not have a ‘value’ until they are consumed–ie converted into something else.
You cannot solve the affordability problem by subsidies or printing money
Money its just a token of energy exchange, therefore you would, in effect, be subsiding energy costs with energy itself.
For most of the 2oth c, there was a huge gap between the input and output of energy produced. (That was where the myth of the ‘American dream’ came from.)
That gap is now closing rapidly. Which is why the dream is becoming a nightmare
Bob, would you care to share your preparations, and where you think they would position you? My middling attempts at such seem ultimately futile, when I consider them.
I know this cartoon with article has been posted before, but it’s due for a repeat. Tim Kreider is a humanities man who has made better decisions than most science folks.
[Quote] Rob personally feels that our civilization is still deep in denial about the exhaustibility of fossil fuels and has let too much time elapse without any Plan B. He is cagey about the gruesome details, but I know he fears the worst. Unlike some of his like-minded fellows who are just holing up with canned goods and ammo, Rob has expended a lot of energy desperately entreating his friends to take similar actions before it’s too late. (Whether Rob’s tool purchases have included a firearm to ward off the marauding Boyds of the world, I do not know.) . . .
Philosophically, however, my heart inclines toward Jim. Not because I think Jim is right but because it’s pleasanter to believe Jim. Of course it’s always comforting, in a head-in-the-sand way, to dismiss all this doomsaying, tell ourselves, ahh, everyone’s always saying things are going to hell in a handbasket, and assume that we’ll eventually figure something out and this shit’ll blow over like it always does. But, as my reading of Gibbon reminds me, sometimes the reason everyone’s always saying things are going to hell in a handbasket is because in fact they are. The problem is that, unlike Rob, I am a lazy and disorganized person who does not base my life decisions on abstract ideas, and frankly I find it easier to resign myself to a premature and violent death than to figure out how to invest my money or repair tools or grow plants, at which I have always sucked . . .
http://www.thepaincomics.com/weekly080423a.htm
Kreider is always interesting, and like the great Donella Meadows, born in 1941, he chose to refrain from breeding. Luckily, not all of us unthinkingly march in lockstep according to the System’s pre-planned life scenario: college, marriage, reproduction, material acquisition, blah blah blah.
Donella Meadows and her cohorts had a massive influence on the educated population’s thought processes; however, they still kept breeding. Obviously, the human ego will never be curtailed.
She mentioned in this succinct article of 1988 how she was personally influenced by Rachel Carson and Paul Ehrlich, with the latter helping her to make the decision to refrain from having children.
“The Limits to Growth” was a genius piece of work that helped me in my personal choices: zero children, simple living.
“. . . Thousands of others, including me, were so moved by their warnings about pollution and overpopulation that we changed our lives. Silent Spring and The Population Bomb influenced the careers we chose, the families we planned, the politicians we supported, the organizations we joined, the products we bought.”
http://donellameadows.org/archives/silent-spring-and-the-population-bomb-can-books-or-lives-make-any-difference/
“The Limits to Growth” was a genius piece of work that helped me in my personal choices: zero children (can’t stand the little beasts), living large, burning coal, pillaging – supporting BAU because living simple would prematurely collapse BAU — Fast Eddy
good video by Kennedy on the abuse of power by the elite
https://www.brighteon.com/ddf9951c-16f0-4acb-bf21-d834cf107181
This is the only version of this talk that is not polluted every 8 seconds with a loud disturbing boom on the audio track. They PTB use every trick.
Let’s get this party (or funeral) started with two recent articles or conspiracies or whatever you want to call them.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/gasoline-is-becoming-worthless-210636353.html
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/battery-fairy-other-delusions-race-replace-gas-powered-cars
It’s as if the government is trying to take away FF so that the people who have been led into buying EVs will be stuck with the false promise of plentiful electricity, meaning they will be more easily controlled and herded into cities- with limited travel ranges in their electric buggies.
It is a very fair question to ask where all the electricity will come from to fuel a large fleet of electric cars. All it may do is hasten the collapse of the electrical gird. Up until now the assumption has been that the declining affordability of fossil fuels for transport would be separate from the electrical grid–that we we would be able to keep the lights on even as our mobility declined. Now it appears that may not be the case.
The Zerohedge article is good. It starts out,
“I continue to be amazed that serious people think that gasoline powered vehicles can be completely replaced by electric vehicles in a decade-and-a-half, and that this would be a good thing, even if possible.”
The article links to another article in Wired, called The spiralling environmental cost of our lithium battery addiction
Among other things, the article talks about the difficulties of trying to recycle lithium.
Gail, another, and major, problem with lithium batteries is that they are fire hazards. Even a small force on a lithium battery can cause it to discharge its energy, creating a hot fire (upto 2000C) that it is almost impossible to put out. An entire cargo plane, and both its pilots, were the victims of such a fire: some atmospheric turbulence cased some of the several hundred batteries in its hold to ignite, and that started a chain reaction that destroyed all the control cables and hydraulics. Maintaining a long and large lithium battery supply chain would be next to impossible.
Lithium is an alkali metal, and by far the most reactive. In laboratory conditions, it is treated with extreme caution (as I know from experience studying chemistry at Oxford); as a component in a mass production environment, it is sheer folly.
Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries (currently being deployed for home battery bu systems) do not suffer from this thermal run-away problem as do Lithium Ion batteries used in cars.
https://www.energy-storage.news/news/lfp-vs-nmc-not-a-silver-bullet-solution-for-safety
Lithium go boom if external short. Lithium go boom if internal short. Lithium go boom if charged too fast. Lithium go boom if too much power pulled out.
Can those things be stopped from occurring from happening with a reasonable degree of certainty. Absolutely!
Why is so much effort spent on balancing lithium cells?
Why must it be monitored?
Every energy delivery system in a house has risks. Grid, solar, propane. Where I live there are two competing shools of thought. Solar batteries belong in a small shed outside the house vs inside the house. This is for lead acid. Would I implement a lithium battpak if I got my greasy hands on one? In a new york minute!
They would never enter my home. Nor would fuel be near the shed they were in. Thats a personal decision about safety. With some soldering thousands of 18650 together and patting themselves on their back about their DIY “powerwall” in the rec room. Different strokes…
The disadvantages of FLA batteries are primarily the relationship between depth of discharge and battery life. You run gen set on cloudy days. None the less they are very tolerant to the conditions typically encountered in a DIY environment. A over charge here and there . No big deal. FLAs primarily die because of undercharge. FLAs are very tolerant within their limitations. Your charge controller accuracy can be reasonable to its price point. Its not going to make the batteries go boom. Are FLAs a pain in the ass? Yes. Their safety factor is exceptional in field conditions as is their tolerance to REASONABLE variance in a DIY environment.
They are failsafe from a safety stand point. No reasonable action will make them go boom. Ok if you trap a months worth of helium outgassing and supply a ignition source they go boom. You have to try to make them go boom. Yes the uber high cost lithium phosphates are more RESISTANT to go boom primarilydue to enclosure design. They do have a UL listing. Thats significant. Still wouldnt bring them into my house. Not that i could afford them.. Jealous analysis? Could be.
Long term. PV DC fed buck boost units can be used to supply power to inverters without batteries to bring water up. Buck boost pretty robust. DC PV current source power can be dropped across resistance loads to create heat for food production greenhouses.. What do you need that power for thats not a luxury? Getting water out of the ground. Your root cellar is refrigeration.
No kings but leaders
No prison consciousness
Jaguar paw.
Once upon a time.
thanks for telling it like it is
a refreshing change jp
I read the entire article and all I could take away from it is that a company designing a “new” Lithium battery made the vague statement that yes, the Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries had “slightly different triggers” to go into thermal run-away. No details on those triggers. The fact is that the thermal runaway of the Lithium Iron Phosphate is markedly higher than as with Normal lithium chemistry used in cars. This is a significant increase in safety for non-mobile applications….ie. Cars.
Also in the article was a picture of lithium batteries burning in a test ….due to impact damage.
Jag, in a home battery BU system, the batteries are not being moved and there is no impact damage.
The Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries are much safer in a home application.
Even when put into a car and smashed at 100mph?
“The ‘battery fairy’ and other delusions in the demand to replace gasoline powered vehicles with electric cars and trucks”
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2021/02/the_battery_fairy_and_other_delusions_in_the_demand_to_replace_gasoline_powered_vehicles_with_electric_cars_and_trucks.html
‘Akio Toyoda, CEO of Toyota Motors, the world’s largest (or second largest, depending on the year). and grandson of the automaker’s founder, has spoken out and called out fallacy of thinking that this is possible or desirable.’
Exactly! Too many believe in the battery fairy.
I wonder how soon we will be hearing about unavailable battery replacements because of supply lines that are broken in one way or another.