To Be Sustainable, Green Energy Must Generate Adequate Taxable Revenue

What allows any type of energy to be sustainable? I would argue that one of the requirements for sustainability is adequate production of taxable revenue. Company managements depend upon taxable revenue for many purposes, including funding new investments and paying dividends to shareholders. Governments depend upon taxable income to collect enough taxes to provide infrastructure and programs for their growing populations.

Taxable income is a major way that “net energy” is transferred to future investment and to the rest of the economy. If this form of net energy is too low, governments will collapse from lack of funding. Energy production will fall from lack of reinvestment. This profitability needs to come from the characteristics of the energy products, allowing more goods and services to be produced efficiently. This profitability cannot be created simply by the creation of more government debt; the rise in the price of energy is tied to the affordability of goods, particularly the goods required by low-income people, such as food. This affordability issue tends to put a cap on prices that can be charged for energy products.

It seems to me that Green Energy sources are held to far too low a standard. Their financial results are published after subsidies are reflected, making them look profitable when, in reality, they are not. This is one of the things that makes many people from the financial community believe that Green Energy is the solution for the future.

In this post, I will discuss these ideas further. A related issue is, “Which type of oil production fell most in the 2018-2021 period?” Many people had expected that perhaps high-cost energy production would fall. Strangely enough, the production that fell most was that of OPEC oil exporters. These oil exporters often have a very low cost of energy production. The production of US oil from shale also fell.

If the ratio of Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROEI) is to be used as a measure of which type of energy best meets our needs, perhaps the list of items to be included in EROEI calculations needs to be broadened. Alternatively, more attention needs to be paid to unsubsidized taxable income as an indicator of net energy production.

[1] According to EIA data, world crude oil production hit a peak of 84.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2018. Production fell as low as 72.3 million bpd in the third quarter of 2020. Production rebounded to 75.4 million barrels of oil a day, still 9.1 million bpd below peak production in the 4th quarter of 2018.

Figure 1. Quarterly crude and condensate production, based on international data of the US Energy Information Administration.

This drop in oil production was unprecedented. It far exceeded the drop in oil production at the time of the Great Recession of 2008-2009. As of the first quarter of 2021, crude oil production was roughly at its level in 2011. It still has not rebounded very far.

[2] The biggest drop in crude oil production during this period was that of the cartel led by OPEC and Russia. United States’ oil production also fell during this period. Production of the Rest of the World, in total, was fairly flat.

Figure 2. Crude oil production through the first quarter of 2021 based on international data of the US Energy Information Administration.

The big concern of OPEC and Russia was that crude oil prices were too low to provide adequate tax revenue for the governments of these countries. This is especially an issue for countries with few other industries besides oil. These oil exporting countries tend to have large populations, with little employment besides government-sponsored projects. Nearly all food needs to be imported, so subsidies for food need to be provided if the many people earning low wages are to be able to afford this food.

If oil prices are high, say $150 per barrel or higher in today’s dollars, it is generally fairly easy for governments to collect enough oil-related taxes. The actual cost of extraction is often very low for oil exporters, perhaps as little as $20 per barrel. The need for tax revenue greatly exceeds the direct expenses of extracting the oil. Companies can be asked to pay as much as 90% of operating income (in this example, equal to $130 = $150 – $20 per barrel, probably only relating to exported oil) as taxes. The percentage varies greatly by country, with countries that have higher costs of production generally paying less in taxes.

Figure 3. Chart from 2013 showing “government take” as a percentage of operating income by Barry Rodgers Oil and Gas Consulting (website no longer available).

When oil companies are asked about their required price to break even, a wide range of answers is possible. Do they just quote the expense of pulling the oil from the ground? If so, a very low answer is possible. If shareholders are involved in the discussions, this is the answer that they would like to hear. Or do they give realistic estimates, including the taxes that their governments need? Furthermore, if the cost of extraction is rising, there needs to be enough profit that can be set aside to allow for the drilling of new wells in higher-cost areas, if production is to be maintained.

Because of the need for tax revenue, OPEC countries often publish Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices, indicating how high the prices need to be to obtain adequate tax revenue for the exporting countries. For example, Figure 4 shows a set of Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices for 2013 – 2014.

Figure 4. Estimate of OPEC breakeven oil prices, including tax requirements by parent countries, by APICORP.

If a country tries to maintain the same standard of living for its population as in the past, I would expect that the fiscal breakeven price would rise year after year. This would occur partly because the population of OPEC countries keeps rising and thus more subsidy is needed. The fiscal breakeven price would also tend to rise because the easiest-to-extract oil tends to be depleted first. As a result, new oil-related investments can be expected to have higher costs than the depleted investments they are replacing.

In fact, if a person looks at more recently published fiscal breakeven prices, they tend to be lower than the 2013-2014 breakevens. I believe that this happens because oil exporters don’t want to look desperate. They know that attaining such high prices is unlikely today. They hope that by using more debt and reducing the standard of living of their citizens, they can somehow get along with a lower fiscal breakeven price. This is not a long term solution, however. Unhappy citizens are likely to overturn their governments. Such a result could completely cut off oil supply from these countries.

[3] A cutback in oil production is not surprising for the OPEC + Russia group, nor for the United States, given the chronically low oil prices. The profitability was too low for all of these producers.

Figure 5. Inflation-adjusted historical average annual Brent oil price for 1965 through 2020 from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. 12-Jul-2021 amount is the actual Brent spot oil price for that date.

Oil prices fell in late 2014. Fiscal breakeven prices calculated before that date likely gave a somewhat reasonable estimate of the needed prices for oil exporters to make an adequate profit, at that time. By early 2019, when the first decreases in oil production began, these countries were beginning to become fed up with chronically low oil prices.

It is interesting to note that Qatar, the country with the lowest breakeven price on Figure 4, decided to withdraw from OPEC effective January 1, 2019, rather than reduce its oil production. For Qatar, oil prices in late 2018 and early 2019 were close to adequate. Qatar mostly produces natural gas, rather than oil.

The decrease in US shale oil production reflects somewhat the same low profitability issue as OPEC + Russia exports, with an additional factor added. Besides low prices, there seems to be a well-spacing issue. There are reports that the spacing of shale wells gradually got closer and closer, until the closer spacing became counter-productive. The more closely spaced wells “cannibalized” the output from nearby wells. The extra drilling may also have released needed pressurization, reducing oil availability.

Such a problem would have been a difficult issue to pick up from EROEI analyses because there are not enough of these EROEI studies to see sudden changes. Figure 6 shows the timing of the drop in US oil production, relative to the drop in oil prices:

Figure 6. Monthly average crude oil and condensate production and prices for the United States excluding the Gulf of Mexico, based on US Energy Information Administration data. Oil prices are West Texas Intermediate spot prices, not adjusted for inflation. Amounts shown are through April 2021.

Figure 6 omits oil from the Gulf of Mexico, because its quantity tends to bounce around, especially when a hurricane hits. Because of this exclusion, the oil shown in Figure 6 reflects a combination of declining oil production from conventional oil wells plus (after about 2011) rising production from shale wells.

Figure 6 shows that production of oil from shale was developed during the 2011 to 2013 period, when oil prices were high. When oil prices suddenly fell in late 2014, shale producers suddenly found production very unprofitable. They cut back on production starting in April 2015. Shale production started rising again in 2017 after prices moved away from their extreme lows. Growth in oil production began to slow in late 2018, when oil prices again began to fall.

The big shutdown in world oil demand associated with the COVID-19 epidemic began in the second quarter of 2020. Shale production fell in response to low oil prices in March through November of 2020. As of April 2021, production does not seem to have rebounded significantly. We have seen reports that workers were laid off, making it difficult to add new production. If, indeed, well-spacing had become too close, this may have played a role in the decision not to ramp up production again. It is quite possible that many drilled but uncompleted wells will permanently remain uncompleted because they are too close to other wells to be useful.

Based on this analysis, it seems likely that US oil production for 2021 will be lower than that for 202o. Ultimately, the lack of adequate profitability can be expected to bring US oil production down.

[4] There are some high-cost oil producers who continue to produce increasing amounts of oil.

Figure 7. Crude oil and condensate production for Canada and Brazil, based on international data of the US Energy Information Administration.

The keys to maintaining high-cost oil production seem to be

  • Large up front investments to make this production possible with little new investment
  • Governments that are not very “needy” in terms of revenue from oil taxes

Even with these considerations, having an unprofitable or barely profitable oil industry weakens a country. Neither Brazil nor Canada is doing very well economically in 2021. These countries will likely reduce new oil investment in the next year or two, if inflation-adjusted oil prices do not rise significantly.

[5] Somehow, “Green Energy” has been allowed to compete in the energy field with huge subsidies. If Green Energy is actually to be successful long-term, it needs to be profitable in the same way that fossil fuel energy needs to be profitable. If wind and solar are truly useful, they need to be very profitable, even without subsidies, so that they can support their governments with taxes.

There tends to be little recognition of the extent of subsidies for renewable energy. For example, allowing the electricity from wind turbines and solar panels to be put on the grid whenever it is generated is a huge subsidy. Such generation mostly substitutes for the coal or natural gas used by electricity-producing plants, rather than the electricity generated by these plants. The many reports we see that compare the cost of intermittent electricity generated by wind turbines and solar panels with the cost of dispatchable electricity generated by fossil fuels are simply misleading.

Furthermore, electricity generated by wind turbines and solar panels doesn’t need to be sufficiently profitable to pay for the much larger grid they require. The larger grid requirement occurs partly because the devices tend to be more distant from users, and partly because the transmission lines need to be sized for the maximum transmission required, which tends to be high for the variable production of renewables.

The lack of adequate profitability of wind and solar on an unsubsidized basis strongly suggests that they are not really producing net energy, regardless of what EROEI calculations seem to indicate.

It might be noted that in past years, oil exporters have been accused of giving large energy subsidies to their oil producing companies. What these oil exporters have been doing is charging their own citizens lower prices for oil products than the high (international) price charged to foreign buyers. Thus, high taxes were collected only on oil exports, not from local citizens. With the fall in oil prices in late 2014 (shown in Figures 5 and 6 below), this practice of differential pricing has largely disappeared.

“Oil subsidies” in the US consist of financial assistance to low income people in the US Northeast who continue to heat their homes with oil. These subsidies, too, have mostly disappeared, with lower oil prices and the availability of less expensive forms of home heating.

[6] It seems to me that an economy really has three different requirements:

  1. The total quantity of energy must be rising, at least as rapidly as population.
  2. The types of energy available must match the needs of current energy-consuming devices, or there needs to be some type of transition plan to facilitate this transition.
  3. There must be enough “net energy” left over, both (a) to fund governments with taxes and (b) to fund any transition to different energy-consuming devices, if such a transition is required.

Thus, in order for a transition to Green Energy to really work, it must be extremely profitable on a pretax, unsubsidized basis, so that it can pay high taxes. The greater the need for a transition to different energy consuming devices, such as heat pumps for buildings and electric vehicles of many types, the greater the need for more net energy generated by Green Energy sources to help facilitate this transition.

High profitability for energy products is normally associated with a very low cost of energy production. Furthermore, the type of Green Energy available needs to be in a very useful form. In a sense, there are really two different energy transitions required:

  • The output of intermittent electricity devices must be brought up to grid standards, using a combination such as many long distance transmission, very substantial battery backup, and the use of many devices to provide the electricity with the precise characteristics it needs.
  • As mentioned above, if greater use of electricity is to be made, a transition to electric devices is required.

Both of these transitions will require a significant quantity of energy (really net energy not used elsewhere in the system) to accomplish. If fossil fuel energy is being phased out, an increasing share of this net energy will need to come from the Green Energy sector by way of the tax system. Such a system will only work if the Green Energy sector is very profitable on a pre-tax basis.

[7] Figure 8 suggests that the world has a problem with low energy consumption per capita right now.

Figure 8. Energy consumption per capita for all energy sources combined based on data from BP’s Statistical Review of Energy 2021.

There is a strong correlation between growth in total energy consumption per capita and how well the economy is doing. The slight downward slide in energy consumption per capita in 2019 indicates that the economy was already doing poorly in 2019. The huge downward shift in 2020 dwarfs the downward slide in 2009, when the world was in the midst of the Great Recession. My earlier research, looking back 200 years, indicates that low growth in energy consumption per capita is likely to lead to conflict among nations and collapses of governments. Epidemics are also more likely to spread in such periods, because greater wage and wealth disparity tends to occur when energy supplies are constrained.

Any shift away from fossil fuel energy to Green Energy will almost certainly mean a huge drop in world energy consumption per capita because the world doesn’t produce very much Green Energy. Such a drop in energy consumption per capita will be a huge problem, in itself. If the Green Energy sector doesn’t generate much taxable income without subsidies, this adds an additional difficulty.

[8] Conclusion: Examination of the EROEIs for various fuels, using calculations the way that they are performed today, gives inadequate information regarding whether a transition to another set of fuels is feasible.

Researchers need to be looking more at (a) the total quantity of energy produced and (b) the profitability of producing this energy. An economy is only possible because of profitable businesses, including energy businesses. A person cannot assume that energy prices will rise from today’s level because of scarcity. Today’s huge debt bubble is producing very high copper and steel prices, but it is not producing correspondingly high oil prices.

Heavily subsidized energy products look like they might be helpful, but there is little reason to believe this to be the case. If Green Energy products are truly producing net energy, we should expect this fact to be reflected in the unsubsidized profits that these products generate. In fact, if Green Energy products are truly producing large amounts of net energy, they should be so profitable that businesses will be rapidly ramping up their production, even without subsidies or mandates.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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2,040 Responses to To Be Sustainable, Green Energy Must Generate Adequate Taxable Revenue

  1. naked emperors can’t hurt themselves in something like that

    • Janice says:

      In response to Fast Eddy’s comment about Norman’s prolific breeding in the face of our destruction:

      Fast Eddy, it’s my understanding that Norman is around 90 years old and had his three children in the late ’50s to early ’60s, well before the educated public became aware of overpopulation with the help of Ehrlich et al.

      However, his children and grandchildren should have been perfectly aware of the issue, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they had a limited education in such matters. After all, our educational system has deteriorated drastically through the decades.

      I suppose I was very lucky in that regard since I’m 65 and chose to refrain from breeding for many reasons at the age of 14 in 1970 due to the expertise and interest of my biology and social studies teachers.
      ————————–
      Norman, congratulations on maintaining your interest in life. I may not agree with you on much, but you are certainly in fine fettle.

      • lol—thank you for the latter comment.

        I’m 85 actually—so not quite in my second childhood, I can’t surrender myself into terminal care while Eddy is still on the loose. he keeps my brain firing on all cylinders as the representative of ‘out there’. I should be grateful

        I wish he was better at wordball though.

        Prolific breeding seems a bit extreme. I found myself with an appointment with the vet after 3. Sheesh.

        My kids were /are all medics, (1 midwife) limited education? lol.. dunno which education system you speak of. I had no hesitation in letting them wear shoes once they turned 18.
        Once they leave home they are their own people.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          Having had the honour of chatting with Norman via Zoom, I can attest that he is staggeringly youthful for 85. My mind was blown.

          • awwwwwwww

            I never thought anything/body would make me blush on OFW Harry

            your cheque is in the post

          • Didn’t he say that he dead lifts 100 pounds?

            • yes, though I don’t do much weights, 25kg x 100 or 200 is much better than a single big one., but that’s on a weights frame thingy.

              usually swim 2.5 m a week—3.5 this week. That’s the best thing by far

              I hear the swish of the grim reaper’s blade, I try to keep slightly ahead of it.

              he’s caught up with too many friends already, another one (from school) in June. Hence fitness mania for as long as it can last.

            • Yorchichan says:

              You are clearly not aware of the grim reaper’s latest guise. He’s swapped black cloak and scythe for white coat and syringe these days.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          ‘I’m 85 actually—so not quite in my second childhood’

          How did you become a child again? Gradually … then suddenly.

        • Tim Groves says:

          Norman, I’ve seen you on YouTube and I realize you are an older codger than I am and in good shape for your age. I think being 85 gives you a perfect excuse for begetting three kids. It was a reasonable number in the UK back when you were a young man. Overpopulation was something that only the Third World engaged in. We British were merely replenishing what had been lost in the wars. If my parents were around now they would be around 90, and they had three, although the youngest was due to a failure of the rhythm method.

          Tell me, do you remember feeling any particular social pressure to procreate? In my relative youth, as late as the 1990s.I can remember being asked dozens of times if I had any children and if not, why not? Almost like the questions I get about being vaccinated these days.

          • I’ve done a few zoomy type chats at various times, could that be where you’ve seen me?

            I’ve never done anything on youtube. I used to chat on hangout, which was available for public viewing as well I think, that was in 2015 I think

            ‘social pressure to procreate’—I like that. We were at school together, then after a 5 year gap we found we were grown ups.

            The ‘social pressure’ had all the subtlety of a runaway steam train from that point on. (and I only had the job of fireman)

            Certainly I get concerned about overpopulation now, but its a bit late for that. The problem with stopping having kids is the demographics of future care.

            In 1908, when uk pensions started, there were 28 workers for every pensioner.
            now there’s about 4.
            Conventionally I should be long dead.

            That’s the bottom line that very few stop to consider.

            The power of fossil fuels has made up the worker shortfall up to now. My kids are not in a position to look after me, not that I would want them to. I’m lucky in being able to take care of myself, physically and financially. Millions are not so lucky. They are supported (for the time being) by surplus energy.

            Pensions are paid on a cash in/out basis. Taxes flow in–pensions are paid out. There’s no interim buffer of any consequence.

            Care homes are paid for by the state, but the state only has taxpayers money. Reduce the numbers of working taxpayers and the elderly will have no support system of any kind.

            This is what’s happening in China right now. (the one child policy of 40 years ago) And Japan too I guess ?

            • Tim Groves says:

              Four workers for every pensioner would be a luxury in Japan. The over-65s were 28% of the population in 2019 and are projected to be 38% in 2060. But 13% of the workforce is currently over-65, which makes it hard to calculate. I would expect there are about 2 and a half workers for each pensioner at the moment, although some people are working pensioners. (For instance, my accountant is still commuting to her office at the age of 94. She can’t stand being at home with her bitch of a younger sister!) And the pension the system keeps running due to mushrooming national debt as much as anything else.

              I may have seen you in a Skype chat that someone posted on YouTube. You could be more famous that you realize.

            • infamous rather than famous I think Tim

              oh well—no such thing as a bad press

              on the subject of workers per pensioner, that really is a scary one—especialy when you realise that so many workers work for the government anyway—-so taxes become part of what the government is ‘paying itself’.

              yet it is still part of ‘GDP”

              madness

              I find the Japanese social ‘system’ fascinating

  2. Mirror on the wall says:

    The EU seems to be ‘gaming’ Gibraltar to get the Tories to comply with the NI Protocol. The Tories seem to fancy that they can play ‘cat and mouse’ with the EU over NIP.

    A preliminary agreement on Brexit eve would have had EU staff man the borders between Spain and Gibraltar, with Spain legally responsible for oversight. The EU draft for a final agreement now envisages Spanish staff.

    The difference is symbolic but the Tories do not like it. Gibraltar is a £2B economy and it could be cut off from the EU if no final agreement is made. It seems to be a way to get the Tories to implement NIP to which they signed up in international law.

    The Tories are still demanding changes to the NIP, and the EU has been fully clear that there will be consequences to non-compliance. The NIP ‘grace’ period has been shifted to the end of September and the Tories now have to decide whether to go rogue.

    Like a cartoon, the outcome could be quite funny but sadly it will unfold in slow motion and we will just have to wait to see what transpires. The EU seems to be positioning Gibraltar as a potential element of that.

    > Why tensions are rising over the Gibraltar border

    Clashes between the UK and the EU over Gibraltar’s border arrangements in the wake of Brexit have led to uncertainty over the future of the long-disputed territory.

    On Tuesday, the European Commission published a draft mandate outlining the territory’s post-Brexit border regulations. Controversially, the proposal calls for Spanish border guards to have “all necessary powers and obligations to carry out the border controls and surveillance” and to “take responsibility for all checks on people arriving at Gibraltar port and airport”, The Times reports.

    The mandate also puts Spain in charge of issuing visas, stating that UK nationals (other than residents of Gibraltar) “would be treated as third country nationals for the purposes of entry and stay in Gibraltar”, says Spanish newspaper El Pais. Currently British nationals don’t need a visa to enter Gibraltar.

    …. Some Whitehall figures interpreted the release of the European Commission’s draft mandate as “an attempt by Brussels to gain leverage for talks over the Northern Ireland Protocol”, the newspaper reports. The proposal came one day before Brexit minister Lord Frost demanded “significant” changes to Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trading arrangements.

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/uk-news/953563/why-tensions-are-rising-over-the-gibraltar-border

    • Malcopian says:

      Gibraltar is a rich off-shore tax haven. What does it benefit the ordinary Brits to keep this anachronism? Probably Nicola enjoys stowing her ill-gotten gains there, while her Scots lapse into drug addiction and obesity.

    • Erdles says:

      Yawn!

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The Tories now seem to be headed for a full blown trade war with the EU. That would be so funny.

      > Northern Ireland protocol clash risks ‘inevitable’ UK-EU trade war, officials fear

      Trade spat could escalate to the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on all British exports to the EU

      A trade war between Britain and the EU is “inevitable” if the UK refuses to back down on its new demands for post-Brexit rules on Northern Ireland, officials warn.

      Trade officials and business leaders told The Independent that time is running out to reach agreement ahead of the introduction of critical deadlines for extra processes which the UK agreed under the protocol. They fear the step from the British government could push the UK and EU into a tit-for-tat trade fight.

      They added this could include retaliatory tariffs impacting all UK exporters to the EU. Such a step could result in tit-for-tat tariffs, key ingredients for a full-blown trade dispute.

      Separately, an Irish diplomat confirmed that if the steps suggested by Mr Frost were followed – particularly the demand that the protocol “no longer be policed by EU institutions and courts of justice” – a trade spat would be inevitable. They added that any flexibility from the EU side had to respect the fundamental principles of the agreement.

      “If the UK seriously tries to avoid the governance structures in the protocol, a trade row will be all but inevitable. But we obviously hope that won’t be the case,” the diplomat said.

      While the Brexit minister held back from invoking Article 16, a mechanism that allows for parts of the protocol to be immediately suspended, Mr Frost said that the circumstances would “justify” its use.

      “It is clearly a kind of threat from London,” said Anton Spisak, a former UK Brexit negotiator and now policy expert at the Tony Blair Institute. He added: “This will add to disputes, to the idea that the UK is negotiating in bad faith in order to change the protocol. The destination of that is a trade war between the UK and the EU.”

      He noted that the EU had already embarked on legal action against the UK in March over London’s decision to unilaterally delay customs checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from Britain.

      https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-war-northern-ireland-eu-b1888172.html

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      EU is getting on with the legal process. An opinion is to issued within a week, after which the Tories will receive a final warning.

      > EU to Escalate Legal Action Against U.K. Over N. Ireland

      Britain is set to be handed a final warning from the European Union to meet its commitments under the Northern Ireland Protocol as the two sides struggle to work out their post-Brexit relationship.

      The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, plans to file a so-called reasoned opinion on what it says are the U.K.’s breaches of the protocol by the end of the month, according to two officials with knowledge of the process. If the U.K. government refuses to back down, the commission could then refer the case to the EU’s Court of Justice in Luxembourg.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-22/eu-to-escalate-legal-action-against-u-k-over-northern-ireland

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The Biden camp has also chimed in again. It is hard to see what the Tories hope to gain from this intransigence against a treaty that they just signed up to in international law. They stand to end up in a trade war with the EU and without a USA trade deal. It seems likely that this stance will lead to a first border poll on Irish unity.

      > US trade deal hopes in tatters as Biden issues angry Brexit warning to Frost over EU deal

      A US trade deal is on the brink after Joe Biden’s administration expressed concerns about Lord Frost’s approach to dealing with the Northern Ireland Protocol.

      A White House source said Mr Biden was “very clear” about the importance of ensuring respect for the Good Friday Agreement. They added: “Northern Ireland has a unique position in the UK and EU markets and this can benefit all communities economically with the Protocol. We encourage the UK and EU to find solutions within the existing arrangements and avoid any violation of important international agreements. President Biden is committed to enhancing bilateral ties with the UK but we stress his important message of ensuring the Good Friday Agreement is upheld.”

      https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1466148/brexit-news-joe-biden-boris-johnson-lord-frost-uk-northern-ireland-protocol-latest

  3. Janice says:

    Fast Eddy, it’s my understanding that Norman is around 90 years old and had his three children in the late ’50s to early ’60s, well before the educated public became aware of overpopulation with the help of Ehrlich et al.

    However, his children and grandchildren should have been perfectly aware of the issue, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they had a limited education in such matters. After all, our educational system has deteriorated drastically through the decades.

    I suppose I was very lucky in that regard since I’m 65 and chose to refrain from breeding for many reasons at the age of 14 in 1970 due to the expertise and interest of my biology and social studies teachers.

  4. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Jul 21st 2021
    In a warming world it helps to stay cool. But doing so also threatens the planet. Most air conditioners use refrigerant gases called hydrofluorocarbons (hfcs). Though these do not deplete Earth’s ozone layer in the way the chlorofluorocarbons they replaced back in the mid-1990s did, they are hundreds of times more effective at trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide is. Less-potent greenhouse gases are now being phased in as refrigerants, but these are not without problems of their own. They can be expensive, and some are inflammable.

    Researchers have long sought ways to produce cooling systems that do without these troublesome gases, but none has come close to being a direct replacement. A small Irish company, however, now claims to have come up with an answer. Exergyn, based in Dublin, has developed a new type of air conditioning which not only avoids hfcs, but also has the benefit of having few moving parts at its core

    From The Economist.com. Paywall for complete article
    I posted a comment on how Cooling the inside is warming the outside a few days ago and this caught my eye…
    Whatever….

    • This is a link to the article in the economist:
      https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/07/21/a-new-green-air-conditioning-system-manages-without-nasty-gases

      I am not sure if this image is behind a paywall. It sort of explains how the system works:

      https://www.economist.com/img/b/300/421/90/sites/default/files/20210724_STC111_0.png

      This image shows that the system has a hot water circuit and a cold water circuit, and something called Nitinol cores that change the water from hot to cold, as they contract and expend. There is a heat exchanger from the cold water circuit in rooms to be cooled (doesn’t do much for humidity, however). There is another heat exchanger from the hot water circuit to eliminate the heat outside.

      Regarding the Nitinol cores, the article says:

      Exergyn’s system uses a substance called a shape-memory alloy. smas, as they are known for short, are a group of materials with the unusual ability to return to a predetermined shape when heated. They are sometimes employed to make spectacle frames, and also in medical implants such as stents. Nitinol, the sma chosen by Exergyn, is a blend of nickel and titanium.

      All smas release heat when deformed by compression, and then absorb it when the pressure is released and they return to their original shape. But Exergyn’s version of nitinol displays this property to a remarkable degree. For its prototype, the company produced 4cm-square plates of the alloy, each pierced by holes intended to permit the passage of a heat-carrying liquid or gaseous medium. A range of benign substances can be employed in that role. The firm’s engineers have tested water, brine, glycol and air, all with success.

      To build a refrigerator involves assembling these plates into stacks of 50 or more. Four stacks make a unit. The stacks are compressed in turn by hydraulic rams or electric actuators, in a sequence that works a bit like a four-stroke engine, explains Kevin O’Toole, Exergyn’s managing director. At any given moment, one stack is being compressed, one released, one preheated and one pre-cooled.

      I am sure that there are lots of hurdles to jump over to make this idea work.

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    Moment of Truth

    An international conference co-hosted by the U.N. and France, the country’s former colonial ruler, scheduled August 4 to discuss the crisis in Lebanon, might be the last chance to save the failing state of Lebanon from meltdown, warn French officials.

    The conference coincides with the first anniversary of the devastating Beirut port explosion, which left more than 200 people dead, about 6,500 injured, and flattened part of the Lebanese capital. Many blame Lebanese officials for storing hundreds of tons of highly explosive ammonium nitrate at the port, which ignited.

    “The moment of truth is fast approaching,” a senior official at the French foreign ministry told VOA. “The politicians reform or they don’t; unless they do, there’s not much we can do to help pull the abyss,” he added. French officials are especially alarmed about the stability of Lebanon’s army, a key state institution that’s being relied on to maintain security and law and order in a country that’s on the brink of social explosion and breakdown.

    Earlier this week the commanders of Lebanon’s army warned of mounting turmoil in the wake of last week’s resignation of Saad Hariri as Prime Minister-designate, a Sunni Muslim centrist. “The army is a deterrent to chaos,” General Joseph Aoun told his soldiers.

    Lebanon’s armed forces need an immediate injection of $100 million to cover the basic needs of its soldiers, according to Gen. Youssef Haddad. He has warned publicly that the country’s armed forces will be in “critical condition” by September and that, “if the army collapses, Lebanon will be lost.”

    France, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have earmarked the country’s armed forces as the key institution to save. In Riyadh earlier in July, their diplomats discussed subsidizing the Lebanese Army with monthly allowances for 80,000 soldiers and officers, say Western and Arab diplomats. The average salary of a soldier was before the economic crisis worth around the equivalent of $800 a month, now it is about $80.

    Diplomats and analysts say the country’s brutal 1975-1990 civil war shows the danger, if the military were to falter. Marco Carnelos, a former Italian diplomat, says Lebanon is already a failed state. “But there is always further to fall, and Lebanon seems to be heading there,” he wrote in a commentary for the news site Middle East Eye, adding, “When will the world step in?”

    He complains: “No western power other than France has yet dedicated to Lebanon the attention it deserves.” U.S. diplomats say the Biden administration also deserves credit for trying to get the international community to focus more on Lebanon and has warned not only of the mounting humanitarian crisis in the country but the danger of severe regional consequences.

    https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/moment-truth-approaching-crisis-wracked-lebanon

  6. JMS says:

    LOL. Can anyone think this is normal? The portuguese football team Leixões SC football was vaccinated wednesday and almost half of its players had adverse reactions.

    “Almost half of the Leixões squad did not train on Thursday and this Friday, due to adverse reactions to the Janssen vaccine against covid-19, which was administered on Wednesday, in Matosinhos, revealed the II Liga club. football.
    “The vaccination took place on Wednesday afternoon… “and a few hours later 15 players and various staff members” began to feel “fever, fatigue, headache, muscle pain , nausea and some had vomiting,” Leixões doctor João Duarte Silva told Lusa. … The same source said that “15 players, out of a total of 33 who were vaccinated, and members of the technical team” – including the head coach, José Mota – and the Leixonense structure of professional football showed different symptoms on the very day that were inoculated.”

    https://www.cmjornal.pt/cm-ao-minuto/detalhe/quase-metade-da-equipa-do-leixoes-sem-treinar-apos-reacoes-adversas-a-vacina-da-janssen?ref=HP_OutrasNoticias1

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    OMG – The Variant!

    New Zealand is shutting down the quarantine-free travel bubble with Australia for two months, as the country grapples with a number of serious outbreaks of Covid-19.

    The country had already paused travel with the states of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. The new pause applies to all of Australia for the next eight weeks.

    At a press briefing on Friday, prime minister Jacinda Ardern said because of the Delta variant there was “greater risk now … than when we opened the travel bubble”.

    “Covid has changed and so must we.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/new-zealand-shuts-australia-travel-bubble-as-sydneys-covid-outbreak-worsens

    They keep hinting at how dangerous the variants are….

    • Two months! For Delta? Delta doesn’t seem to fill up the hospitals. If you get Covid, it is the variety you want.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        We may be in a very dangerous situation … on one hand Devil Covid has not emerged… but the protest movements may be picking up steam and edging into violence….

        For the Elders this is perhaps like watching a penalty shoot out…. they may be chewing their nails … shouting at Fauci ‘where’s that f789ing Devil Covid you slimy bas tard!’

        Fauci is desperately trying to Inject more people and topping them up with the Boosters…

        He knows …that failure is not an option …. Ripping of Faces approaches…

        Maybe it plays out like this … the riots amp up …. providing excellent entertainment as the End of Days looms… and just as things begin to spiral out of control…. Devil Covid STRIKES!

        The rioters … seeing their mates dying like flies… retreat to their basements and Cower…

        And everyone either dies of the DC or starves?

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    CovIDIOTS Stranded in Australia

    “We would love to be able to bring more Kiwis home to their families, but we’re limited by the availability of MIQ spots.”

    Langridge said Air NZ would continue to work closely with the Government to ensure it could bring as many Kiwis home from Australia as possible.

    “Our teams have worked tirelessly to get these managed return flights up and running so we can reconnect Kiwis with their loved ones. We recognise this is a very stressful and emotional time for those customers wishing to return from NSW, and we’re doing everything we can to get them home safely as quickly as possible.

    “We don’t have any further information to provide at this stage,” Langridge said.

    https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/mercy-flights-sydney-sell-out-minutes

    Consider this … the Toronto area has been experiencing around 200 infections per day …. and that was apparently low enough to dramatically pull back on the intensive lockdown…

    Surely if you unlock and you have infections … you should quickly get thousands of infections?

    That has not happened.

    Meanwhile Sydney has been experiencing around 100 per day…. and they are into yet another lockdown.

    And STILL the CovIDIOTS do not say WTF????

  9. a question for the assembled non-elites.

    if we are not one of the ‘elites’ by virtue of wealth and position, at what point does one become one?

    There must be a crossover point? On OFW there is constant discussion of this ‘elite group’.
    Who–where-what are they? What are the conditions of joining?

    Say–I was worth $10m—would that be enough? Or would I be pushed back out through the gates to be stripped of my measly $10m by the hungry masses?

    If I present myself to the electoral body of the elite club, it what point am I accepted or rejected?

    would I have to be a $ billionaire minimum?

    And who is on the electoral body?—Make no mistake, if an ‘elite’ exists, as so many here insist that it does, for some sinister purpose, then there has to be a ‘controlling body’ to say who’s in and who’s out

    Just like the Mar a Lago golf club really.

    Does it only admit American $ billionaires? Or would I be admitted as a $zim billionaire? (I think I could manage that)

    And where would I find their headquarters?

    I need to know these things. (In case I suddenly get rich)

    And if the ‘elite’ club is for billionaires only, Forbes states that there are only 2755 of them.This leads to the next problem: the net wealth of those 2755 people depends entirely on the continued working output of the rest of us.

    (no way round that I’m afraid. Not even on Mars)

    But if those evil billionaires have a plan of extermination for us, (as OFW’ers keep telling me ) then the value of their assets would collapse to zero.

    Ah–but they’d keep a few hundred thousand alive as ‘slaves’.

    Sorry–that wouldn’t work.

    They would need guards, and lots of them. They would need to live in a billionaire enclave, for security. Guards can get very bad tempered if they are not paid regularly.
    They tend to go self-employed.
    Particularly when they realise that money means nothing in an empty world.

    And what would they actually ‘do’ all day sitting round in their compound, in that otherwise empty world.? Take rocket trips into space on Bezos’s personality symbol?

    Net wealth (for everyone) is what it is through the continued output of the global industrial system. Contrary to popular opinion, billionaires do not live in an ‘alternative universe’. They use our surpluses to make it look that way. It’s an illusion.

    Clever though, huh?

    And try to understand my laughter. I know it upsets some, but there it is.

    • Not exactly

      The wealth of the lords, lairds and chieftains depended upon their real estate, not their workers.

      Workers are not relevant. Capital is all it counts

      • The system really has to have both workers and capital. We can leverage human labor with tools (made with fossil fuels) and with fossil fuels to operate tools (such as trucks). We can’t have only factories that operate with the lights off, and deliveries made to buyers using robots.

        Think about the animals in the ecosystem they live in. It is their labor that collects the food that they eat. Humans are not that different.

      • afraid you are wrong

        A ‘lord of the manor’ might ‘own’ 20000 acres, but without human muscle input, he could grow very little as a cash-producing (i.e. surplus) crop

        He can’t just sit there and admire the view.

        he may not pay workers very much, but he can’t do without them

        The situation was different on marginal uplands, where sheep might be the main energy-crop, but ‘upland areas’ are only viable when there are additional lowland areas to produce all the other necessities to support even a medeival lifestyle.

        A market system is essential to turn capital (or some of it) into cash.

    • Fillmore East says:

      Good question. I see the public face of the elite as the kind of moral do-gooders described by C.S. Lewis. Once the desire for profit and control are attained the ego shifts to establushing legacy. If that individual made his fortune through widely used software programs and focuses his strategic philanthropy on tech innovations for global science and health you would experience the shift in that area. On the other hand, you have examples of powerful and influential people like Hitler and Mao with some evidence of support from the ultra rich and ivy league universities examples Rockefeller and Yale Skull and Bones (see Anthony Sutton).

      The UN and Rockefeller intiatives jibe with the outcomes of the real life scripted exercises held by the WEF, Gates Foundation and John Hopkins. SImply read those documents, see those narratives playing out with officials using the exact terminology (Lockstep, Dark Winter) and you understand claims of global coordination. Follow the money and strategic partnerships and you will understand the surface level of the control matrix.

      My belief is that the core group is being directed by higher order intelligences and this process is operating at the civilization level. Moves at this level would appear to be maleovent to humans in the same way we fatten and herd cattle for slaughter. Is it good or bad to pick the winners while extracting value and engineering society?

      Daniel Quinn in his book “Ishmael” makes some sense of the why and how we transitioned from Hunter Gatherers to Agriculturalists to Industrialists. I’m not sure trying to figure out who the elite are is going to solve our problems as much as learning about what kind of lifestyle works right now for survival, conserving resources and being kind to each other. Charles Eisensteins book “Ascent of Humaniry” is another good read on the journey of civilization.

      • MM says:

        All people following “a leader” have the problem of not knowing if the leader is benevolent.
        As far as I understand that comes with the problem that stupidity has the best breeding ground on followers of leadership.

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      “If we are not one of the ‘elites’ by virtue of wealth and position, at what point does one become one? There must be a crossover point? On OFW there is constant discussion of this ‘elite group’. Who–where-what are they? What are the conditions of joining?”

      There are ranking and classification systems everywhere in society – from the lowest to highest levels.

      Let’s say, Norman, that you’ve suddenly come into wealth, acquiring a net worth of $10 million. Assuming this is somewhat public knowledge, all kinds of people will want to get to know you and learn more about you. Selection criteria will be applied via the following questions:

      How did you amass your fortune? Was it through industrious hard work (long hours, excellent salesmanship and marketing, etc.) or parasitic methods (rent seeking)?

      Are you “new money” or do you come from “old money?”

      What about your family? Just who are the Pagetts? Are they a dynastic family with a tradition of maintaining wealth through the generations?

      Are you single or married?

      These are but a few questions that make up selection criteria. There will, of course, be plenty of people from the lower levels of society who bring their own selection criteria (e.g. is Norm foolish enough to lend me money for a get-rich-quick scheme?).

      In addition to financial wealth (which some “elites” might actually find a crass measure of status) there is the subject of bloodlines. Surely, you can recall from history the importance of bloodlines and dynastic rule down through the ages. For a fun example from recent times, consider Princes William and Harry and Megan Markle and Kate Middleton:

      Prince William, Duke of Cambridge:

      Cousins:

      Meghan Markle – 16th cousin 1 time removed via Sir Robert Hildyard
      Catherine (Kate) Middleton – 12th cousin 1 time removed via Sir William Blakiston

      Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex:

      Cousins:

      Meghan Markle – 16th cousin 1 time removed via Sir Robert Hildyard
      Catherine (Kate) Middleton – 12th cousin 1 time removed via Sir William Blakiston

      Catherine (Kate) Middleton and Meghan Markle:

      17th cousins 1 time removed via Sir John Hastings

      Search: https://famouskin.com/

      Now, is it simply a coincidence that Prince William and Prince Harry are related to their wives? Additionally, it it simply a coincidence that Kate Middleton and Meghan Markle are related to each other?
      Did the young princes just happen to go out into the world and somehow manage to select for themselves two young women that share the same pedigree as themselves?
      Or is it more likely that the House of Windsor applies certain specific criteria for the marriages of its members? Criteria that is beyond simply financial wealth?

      There was, after all, the “Royal Disease”:

      “Hemophilia is sometimes referred to as ‘the royal disease,’ because it affected the royal families of England, Germany, Russia and Spain in the 19th and 20th centuries. Queen Victoria of England, who ruled from 1837-1901, is believed to have been the carrier of hemophilia B, or factor IX deficiency. She passed the trait on to three of her nine children. Her son Leopold died of a hemorrhage after a fall when he was 30. Her daughters Alice and Beatrice passed it on to several of their children. Alice’s daughter Alix married Tsar Nicholas of Russia, whose son Alexei had hemophilia. Their family’s entanglement with Rasputin, the Russian mystic, and their deaths during the Bolshevik Revolution have been chronicled in several books and films. Hemophilia was carried through various royal family members for three generations after Victoria, then disappeared.”

      https://www.hemophilia.org/bleeding-disorders-a-z/overview/history

      How to make hemophilia disappear from the royal bloodlines? Very, very careful inbreeding. This is why genealogies are of paramount importance to wealthy dynastic families and why they often use surnames as given names, indicating their pedigree. The wealthy and powerful intermarry generation after generation in order to concentrate their wealth via inheritance; this goes back to the old testament and it’s recorded emphasis on bloodlines and ancient practices of property inheritance. Not much has changed since then for the wealthy and powerful; just advancing technology which assists them in ensuring that the cousin they’re about to marry is sufficiently distant enough to reduce the chances of producing malformed heirs.

      “The ancient Egyptian royal families were almost expected to marry within the family, as inbreeding was present in virtually every dynasty. Pharaohs were not only wed to their brothers and sisters, but there were also ‘double-niece’ marriages, where a man married a girl whose parents were his own brother and sister.”

      https://www.medicalbag.com/home/features/grey-matter/impact-of-royal-inbreeding-part-iii/

      Norman, why has the above happened throughout history and why does it continue to happen? Why do the wealthy and powerful continue to marry “within the family?”

      Why is former US President George H.W. Bush’s wife, Barbara (Pierce) Bush his 9th cousin 1 time removed via William Read?

      Why is actor Kevin Bacon’s wife, Kyra Sedgwick, his 9th cousin 2 times removed via Samuel Hinckley?

      Why did former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani marry Regina Peruggi, his second cousin 1 time removed?

      Why did Saddam Hussein agree to marry Sajida Talfah, his first cousin? Why was their marriage planned from the time the two were children?

      Why did Albert Einstein marry Elsa (Einstein) Lowenthal, his first cousin on his mother’s side and second cousin on his father’s side?

      Why did Charles Darwin marry Emma Wedgwood, his first cousin? Why did they go on to have 10 children despite Darwin’s research on inbreeding and evolution? Why did he worry that their relationship was the reason that 3 of their children died at young ages?

      “Endogamy is the practice of marrying within a specific social group, religious denomination, caste, or ethnic group, rejecting those from others as unsuitable for marriage or other close personal relationships.
      Endogamy is common in many cultures and ethnic groups. Several religious and ethnic religious groups are traditionally more endogamous, although sometimes with the added dimension of requiring marital religious conversion. This permits an exogamous marriage, as the convert, by accepting the partner’s religion, becomes accepted within the endogamous rules. Endogamy, as distinct from consanguinity, may result in transmission of genetic disorders, the so-called founder effect, within the relatively closed community.”
      – Wikipedia

      • I think that there are the semi-elite, too, that most of the readers and commenters on this blog belong too. We received good educations, ourselves. We probably had parents who received better-than-average educations as well. We generally can afford to buy the food of the types we consider healthful.

        We don’t realize how many people in the world are concerned about where their next meal will be coming from. We are wealthy enough to afford computers. We live in parts of the world where electricity supply is nearly always on. A lot of people in the world are a lot less elite than we are.

      • it was GB Shaw who said (about the English language):

        ”it is impossible for an Englishman to open his mouth without making some other Englishman despise him.”

        thus we condemn ourselves with our own snobbery, and perpetuate the class system, with which England is still riddled.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Fascinating comment. Much to chew over in there.

        We may not all be brothers and sisters, but we are most certainly all cousins.

        Seventeenth cousin, once removed? How many seventeenth cousins once removed do you have? Hundreds? Thousands? Hundreds of thousands? Chances are, it’s in the millions.

        A seventeenth cousin is really distant. It means your most recent common ancestor was eighteen generations back. You share a pair of great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great grandparents. Spam spam spam spam……

        Tim Urban worked out a mathematical formula for determining how many living cousins you have. He said that:

        “Most interesting to me is that these numbers go up so exponentially that taking the world average for number of children per family (2.36), you can use the formula to calculate that if breeding were mixed evenly across cultures and nations, the most distant relative you’d have on Earth would be a 15th cousin.

        However, since breeding isn’t mixed evenly and is instead contained mostly within nations and cultures, the most distant person within your culture or ethnicity is probably closer to you than a 15th cousin, while the farthest relation you have on Earth is likely to be as far as a 50th cousin.

        In any case, you have hundreds if not thousands of third and fourth cousins and you’re probably friends with some of them without realizing it—you might even be dating one of them.”

        If Tim Urban is correct. Almost everyone living in the UK apart from fairly recent immigrants and their offspring are blood relations of Princes William and Harry and of Megan Markle and Kate Middleton. It’s a shuddering thought, I admit.

        https://qz.com/557639/everyone-on-earth-is-actually-your-cousin/

        • Azure Kingfisher says:

          “We may not all be brothers and sisters, but we are most certainly all cousins.

          “Seventeenth cousin, once removed? How many seventeenth cousins once removed do you have? Hundreds? Thousands? Hundreds of thousands? Chances are, it’s in the millions.”

          This is why there is more to the multigenerational selective breeding process than distant cousin relation.

          Why is Queen Elizabeth II the Queen of the United Kingdom? Is it because she’s 17th cousin, once removed from someone of historical significance? Nope. It’s because she descents from a specific bloodline going back who knows (in truth) how far.

          I’ve seen it posited that the Assyrian tree of life represents the genealogical tree of royalty and that the “priests” standing beside the tree holding what appear to be pinecones (symbols of fertilization and immortality) are in charge of maintaining the genealogical tree.
          (Image here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashur_(god)
          If this interpretation is accurate, it certainly puts a whole new spin on the concept of achieving “immortality” (e.g. emphasis on bloodline vs. individual lifespan).

          There may have also been a biological imperative for maintaining bloodlines:

          What is Rh incompatibility?

          “When a woman and her unborn baby carry different Rhesus (Rh) protein factors, their condition is called Rh incompatibility. It occurs when a woman is Rh-negative and her baby is Rh-positive. The Rh factor is a specific protein found on the surface of your red blood cells.

          “Like your blood type, you inherit your Rh factor type from your parents. Most people are Rh-positive, but a small percentage of people are Rh-negative. This means they lack the Rh protein.”

          https://www.healthline.com/health/rh-incompatibility

          So, in short, even if “we’re all cousins” we are certainly not all members of royal bloodlines – we’ve been excluded via a multigenerational selective breeding process, the full details of which still seem to be somewhat a mystery.

          Look Who’s Related: George Washington and all the Presidents

          https://www.geni.com/blog/look-whos-related-george-washington-and-all-the-presidents-325451.html

          Obama has 44 cousins in the Senate. Now can’t we all just get along?

          “…We’ve found that Obama has no less than 44 confirmed cousins in the Senate, including Texas Republican Ted Cruz (the husband of Obama’s 14th cousin, once removed) and Arizona Republican Jeff Flake (Obama’s eighth cousin, three times removed). And more to come. In the next few months, we plan to figure out how all 100 senators are connected to each other. One big happy, dysfunctional family.”

          https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/07/obama-cousins-senate-family-tree

          Royal Red Carpet is Path to White House

          “LONDON, Oct. 25, 2000 — When it comes to picking the winner in the American presidential race, Britain’s leading chroniclers of royal ancestors say they’ve never been wrong — not once in almost 200 years.

          “Based on facts gleaned from the old scrolls and dusty archives of Burke’s Peerage — researchers of royal bloodlines since 1826 — the Brits wager it will be Texas Gov. George W. Bush.”

          “’The presidential candidate with the most royal genes and chromosomes has, up to now, always won the White House,’ say the researchers at Burke’s Peerage.”

          https://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=82279&page=1

          • Tim Groves says:

            Yeah, but bloodlines are for the most part a social construct. The genes are being reshuffled with each new zygote. Apart from where identical twins or clones develop, each zygote and each person that develops from each zygote are unique.

            All of my genes and all of yours (except for the odd mutation we may have acquired) exist in millions of other people. They came together to create you, and they will disburse in all of your decedents as they flow along that “River out of Eden” that Dawkins writes about.

            The Y chomosome, which prior to the current transphilic era, denoted maleness, is a partial exception, since it doesn’t partake in meiosis and is passed intact from father to son. All individuals carrying a Y chromosome are related through a single XY ancestor who likely lived around 300,000 years ago, but genetic drift has meant that there is some variation in the Y that allows some bloodline determination to be made. But once a family has no male heirs and has to import a male from outside, or once an heir is born on the wrong side of the blanket—a more common occurrence than is usually supposed, you can kiss the strict genetic bloodline idea goodbye. Although if the aristocracy only breeds with the aristocracy, this needn’t be an issue. It’s when Lady Chatterly beds the gardener that the real damage is done.

            • Azure Kingfisher says:

              That was informative. Thanks, Tim.

              “But once a family has no male heirs and has to import a male from outside, or once an heir is born on the wrong side of the blanket—a more common occurrence than is usually supposed, you can kiss the strict genetic bloodline idea goodbye.”

              You’re right about that. This points to the whole “illegitimate heir” concept and at least one motive for deception among the ruling bloodlines. When wealth, power and status are at stake, who would maintain moral fortitude and publicly declare of themselves, “actually, no, I am not a legitimate heir.”

              There are plenty instances of fraud with regard to bloodlines. I recall reading of a rash of portrait commissions during the Italian Renaissance for fake ancestors; the goal being to use these portraits as “proof” that one had been born into the Italian nobility.

              The question as to the legitimacy of royal bloodlines can also be viewed as a microcosm of the larger question as to the legitimacy of any historical narrative. The further back in time one researches the murkier things get. Additionally, all kinds of artifacts have been forged through time, including genealogies. And yet, dynastic families maintain their age- old traditions and “royals” claim their status by citing their bloodline membership and displaying family crests in an act of modern totemism.

              Interestingly, there is significant contrast between the Old Testament and the New Testament with regard to genealogies:

              1 Chronicles 7:1 (KJV)

              “Now the sons of Issachar were, Tola, and Puah, Jashub, and Shimron, four. And the sons of Tola; Uzzi, and Rephaiah, and Jeriel, and Jahmai, and Jibsam, and Shemuel, heads of their father’s house, to wit, of Tola: they were valiant men of might in their generations; whose number was in the days of David two and twenty thousand and six hundred. And the sons of Uzzi; Izrahiah: and the sons of Izrahiah; Michael, and Obadiah, and Joel, Ishiah, five: all of them chief men. And with them, by their generations, after the house of their fathers, were bands of soldiers for war, six and thirty thousand men: for they had many wives and sons. And their brethren among all the families of Issachar were valiant men of might, reckoned in all by their genealogies fourscore and seven thousand.”

              1 Chronicles 9:1 (KJV)

              “So all Israel were reckoned by genealogies; and, behold, they were written in the book of the kings of Israel and Judah, who were carried away to Babylon for their transgression.”

              Titus 3:9 (KJV)

              “But avoid foolish questions, and genealogies, and contentions, and strivings about the law; for they are unprofitable and vain.”

              1 Timothy 1:4 (KJV)

              “Neither give heed to fables and endless genealogies, which minister questions, rather than godly edifying which is in faith: so do.”

              I think it’s safe to say our “elites” are more of the Old Testament type.

    • MM says:

      At the core the elite is a dynastic system as I see it. You can not directly enter it but you can marry into it in case you have the right talents.
      I do not think that wealth is an issue here.

      You might be given a grant for a certain education, maybe “proposed by a teacher” to you or your parents.

      https://www.globalshapers.org/hubs/

      • Fast Eddy says:

        It’s really tough to get in the Club…. you need to have ‘gold’ or similar in your surname….

    • Alex says:

      The court jester George Carlin gave us some clues:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUaqFzZLxU

    • Ed says:

      Norman, I would say 100 million gets you invited to the nice parties but no decision making authority. One billion you can start to be heard.

      • sounds good to me

        Have you noticed those pics you see sometimes… an 80 yr old billionaire with a 25 yr old bimbo on his arm?

        ”Of course I love him” she says, holding him up for the camera.

        My ultimate ambition. All I need is a $billion and a bimbo.

  10. Yoshua says:

    World Bank data shows that the World GDP declined $3T. IMF says $15T decline.

    Who do we trust?

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

    • I am wondering if you are confused. Where do you get the $15T decline for the IMF from?

      The world GDP was only about $85 trillion in US dollars. A decline of $15 trillion would be a 17.6% decline. It is hard to find any country with that big a percentage decline in GDP.

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        Gail, I think Yoshua must have spotted that in my link below:

        https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/covid-wipes-out-15t-from-global-economic-output-imf

        The World Bank’s figure is closer to the percentage of reduced global energy use yet intuitively seems a bit small to me.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          The other point to make is that anything below very roughly +2.5% global GDP is actually recessionary, so that needs to be factored in.

        • That is a good point. The amount referred to is $15 trillion of global economic output. Global economic output would include inflation, so would be a higher number than GDP growth. It might also include some currency relativity changes.

          The article makes a point about all of the debt that has needed to be added to fix this problem. It is well known that a fairly high multiple (say 4 or 5 times) as much debt must be added to lead to a corresponding increase in goods and services produced. So looking at the high debt levels added would tend to produce a similar result.

  11. Yoshua says:

    Bossche is wrong?

    The Sinovac is a traditional vaccine made of deactivated Sars-Cov-2 virus. It will produce T cells against the virus.
    Peru has mainly used the Sinovac…and it lead to the Lambda mutation (Devils Covid).

    There’s is no effective vaccine against Corona viruses?
    No, I haven’t read medicine…so you can take anything I write and throw it in the garbage bin.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6054FHX0AAxzQl?format=jpg&name=900×900

  12. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Accident waiting to happen’: Zero-down mortgages in Canada stoke U.S. subprime-like fears…

    “This is year twenty-five of the great Canadian housing bull market, a nearly uninterrupted straight line up that has few parallels in the world. At a time of soaring real-estate prices all over the globe, only one major economy — New Zealand — has a frothier housing market than Canada…”

    https://financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/zero-down-mortgages-subprime-fears-canada

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Washington might have to go to war to fight a housing bubble. Does it have the tools to win? …Home prices are rising at their fastest pace in history, fueling concern that a new real estate bubble has formed.

      “These double-digit home price increases have led some to call on the Fed to raise interest rates. So far, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has resisted those calls…”

      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/washington-might-have-to-go-to-war-to-fight-a-housing-bubble-does-it-have-the-tools-to-win-11626881606

    • Zero down mortgages with rapidly rising prices certainly look like they can’t end well.

      If anything goes wrong, the banks will be stuck with a lot of debt that is in excess of the market value of these properties.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The thing is…

        This is just another clue supporting the existence of the CEP…

        As we know from Korowicz…. if the financial system implodes (and make no mistake — these policies have pushed the egg up to the top of a very tall mountain… implosion is guaranteed)…. the entire building crashes to the ground… and it cannot be put back together…

        Couple this with the energy situation …

        And it is clear that the Elders have no plan for the future … because they know there is no future… they are doing the equivalent of running the engine as hard as it will go …. yes it will blow the engine at some point but never mind… just keep pouring in more high octane fuel to keep it pumping out the horse power….

        And hope that it does not blow before the CEP is fully executed….

        They recognize that the engine is already damaged beyond repair … they recognize that the fuel for the engine is running low ….

        Time is of the essence…. where is that damn Devil Covid!!!

        I suspect these are anxious moments up there in the Fed building.

  13. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Republicans will not vote to increase the federal borrowing limit, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said in a new interview, setting the stage for a huge battle in Congress as it stares at a deadline to avoid a debt default.

    “McConnell’s threat prompted outrage from top Democrats, warning the GOP leader is playing a dangerous game that could tank the US economy. Republicans argue that it’s not uncommon for the majority party to shoulder the burden for increasing the debt limit, a politically toxic vote for lawmakers up for reelection.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/21/politics/mitch-mcconnell-debt-ceiling-republicans-democrats-reconciliation/index.html

  14. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Covid wipes out $15T from global economic output: IMF.

    “The world economy has lost $15 trillion in output as a result of Covid-19 as central banks have provided more liquidity in the past year than in the last 10 years combined, a senior official of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.”

    https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/covid-wipes-out-15t-from-global-economic-output-imf

  15. Harry McGibbs says:

    “‘Hunger has returned’: Covid piles further misery on Brazil’s vulnerable. Even before coronavirus, life was a struggle on Regeneration Street, a rubbish-strewn skid row on the north side of Rio de Janeiro…

    “The Covid pandemic has piled further misery on what was already one of Brazil’s most depressed and vulnerable addresses, leaving its residents, like millions of fellow citizens, hungry and afraid.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/22/brazil-rio-coronavirus-hunger-poverty

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Dozens arrested in fresh Colombia protests: police…

      “As Colombians returned to the streets after a weeks-long hiatus, clashes with riot police left dozens of civilians and agents wounded in the cities of Bogota, Medellin and Cali, according to the authorities.”

      https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210721-dozens-arrested-in-fresh-colombia-protests-police

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “A few years ago, something strange started to happen in a video game called Old School RuneScape. Suddenly there were lots of new players in the game… They were winning gold in the game and then converting that game gold into actual money by selling it to other players on underground websites…

        “Why? …The answer lay in one single collapsing economy. Venezuela. Rampant hyperinflation was undermining the local currency. And for thousands of Venezuelans, video game gold had become a currency of refuge.”

        https://www.npr.org/2021/07/21/1018915121/video-gaming-the-system

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Now that’s what I call busting some eggs!

        So far in the core countries… all we are getting is snowflakes marching around and shouting slogans… then retreating to the campfire to sing Koombaya… and posting selfies on anti-lockdown sites.

        https://www.patersonrose.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Zzzzzz-Pillowcase2.jpg

        I demand … Entertainment!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Check out the photos ….

        THAT is what will pass for utopia when civilization collapses… in that none of them are eating each other… none seem to be roasting children…. nobody is getting raped or murdered…

        This is why the CEP MUST NOT FAIL.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Cadaverous crack addicts probe dumpsters for scraps of food; crestfallen down-and-outs sprawl on soiled mattresses and rugs.

        The dumpsters are not yet empty…..

    • More sad stories from South America!

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The thing is…

      If you show that suffering to a CovIDIOT and inform them that this is the price people are paying for these lockdowns…

      They will respond with but the hospitals will collapse with no lockdowns…

      Funny thing is most of the US is not locked down and has not been for months… is anything collapsing?

      Then there’s Sweden….

      These clowns are so dazed and confused and stoooopid … that the epic suffering does not register…

      Must Stay Safe – F789 Everyone… Must Stay Safe…

  16. Harry McGibbs says:

    “‘A powder keg about to explode’: Long marginalized Afro Cubans at forefront of island’s unrest…

    ““It’s a powder keg about to explode when you have a regime that refuses to recognize that there are large communities with economic, housing, material and food deprivation,” said Guillermo “El Coco” Fariñas, a prominent Black dissident.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/07/19/cuba-protests-afro-cubans/

  17. Harry McGibbs says:

    “South Africa unrest death toll jumps to more than 300.

    “Rioting in South Africa this month has claimed 337 lives, the government said on Thursday, marking a further jump in the death toll from the 276 announced the previous day… some of the latest deaths were of people succumbing to injuries sustained during the riots.”

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/22/south-africa-unrest-death-toll-jumps-to-more-than-300

  18. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Expats fill suitcases with medicine, cash for families in Lebanon…

    “Horrified by news of the country’s spiralling economic crisis, compounded by fuel shortages and long daily power outages, Lebanese expats visiting home have stuffed their suitcases with life-saving medicine, hygiene products, baby formula, diapers, and even power banks for their families.”

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/22/expats-fill-suitcases-with-medicine-cash-for-families-in-lebanon

  19. Harry McGibbs says:

    “China rushes to set up bailout funds for indebted state-run firms.

    “Local governments in China are racing to launch rescue funds worth billions of dollars to bail out state-owned groups after a flurry of high-profile bond defaults that shook international investors.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/d75dcbb0-f856-4597-a679-53ecacd400bf

  20. Harry McGibbs says:

    “More than 230 migrants jump fence into Spain’s Melilla…

    “Over 230 migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa arrived in Melilla in the early hours of Thursday… Equipped with hooks, some 300 migrants attempted to jump over the six-metre high fence, but only 238 managed to cross to the other side, leaving several injured…”

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/justice-home-affairs/news/more-than-230-migrants-jump-fence-into-spains-melilla/

  21. Harry McGibbs says:

    “A majority of Americans think children will be financially worse off than their parents, survey finds…

    “More than two-thirds (68%) of U.S. respondents said they think today’s children will be financially worse off as adults than their parents, up from 60% in 2019. Only 32% think children will be better off.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/many-americans-think-children-will-be-financially-worse-off-than-their-parents.html

  22. Many OFW followers probably have James Howard Kunstler on their radar screen. His recent talk with Dr. David Martin (there’ve been some videos linked here which feature Martin) is a worthwhile listen, I think.

    https://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-347-chatting-with-david-e-martin-about-covid-19-vaccinations-and-other-mass-casualty-events/

    • Tim Groves says:

      Thanks for posting this, Lidia. I will watch this when I get some time.

      Regarding the video of DR. DAVID MARTIN WITH REINER FUELLMICH, I found an online article that summarized their talk. The following section particularly struck me as important.

      Not a vaccine:

      Any assertion that this pathogen is somehow unique or novel falls apart on the actual gene sequences which are published in the patent record. More egregiously, we have Peter Daszak himself stating that we need to create public hype to get the public to accept the medical countermeasure of a pan-coronavirus vaccine. What makes that most ludicrous is that the WHO declared coronavirus a dead interest – that we had eradicated coronavirus as a concern. So why, after having eradicated it in 2007 and 2008, did we start spending billions of $ globally on a vaccine for a thing that had been eradicated by declaration in 2008?

      This was seen as a highly malleable bioweapon. By 2005, it was unquestionably a weapon of choice. The illusion that we continue to see well-meaning people get trapped in, is conversations about whether we’re having a vaccine for a virus. We’re not. We’re injecting a spike protein mRNA sequence which is the result of a computer simulation, not derived from nature, of a sequence which has been known and patented for years.

      The ludicrous nature of the story that this is somehow prophylactic or preventative flies in the face of 100% of the evidence. The evidence makes it 100% clear that there has been no effort by any pharmaceutical company to combat the virus. This is about getting people injected with the known-to-be-harmful S1 spike protein.

      The cover story is that if you get an expression of spike protein you’re going to have general symptomatic relief. But there has never been an intent to vaccinate a population as defined by the vaccination universe. When Anthony Fauci tried desperately to get some of his “synthetic RNA” vaccines published, he had his own patents rejected by the Patent Office. Quote from the Patent Office: “These arguments are persuasive to the extent that an antigenic peptide stimulates an immune response that may produce antibodies that bind to a specific peptide or protein, but it is not persuasive in regards to a vaccine. The immune response produced by a vaccine must be more than merely some immune response, but must also be protective. As noted in the previous office action, the art recognizes the term “vaccine” to be a compound which prevents infection. Applicant has not demonstrated that the instantly claimed vaccine meets even the lower standards set forth in the specification, let alone the standard art definition for being operative in regards. Therefore, claims 5, 7 and 9 are not operative as the anti-HIV vaccine [which is what he was working on] is not patentable utility.”

      Anthony Fauci himself was told by the Patent Office themselves that what he was proposing as a vaccine does not meet the patentable standard, the legal standard or the clinical standard.

      Dr. Martin raised these issues beginning in 2002, after the anthrax scare, and the tragedy is, we are now sitting in a world where we have hundreds of millions of people who are being injected with a pathogen-stimulating computer sequence, which is being sold under what the Patent Office, the medical profession and the FDA in its own clinical standards would not suggest is a vaccine. But by using the term, we are now subjecting hundreds of millions of people to what was known to be by 2005 a biological weapon.

      https://seemorerocks.is/nothing-about-the-novel-coronavirus-is-new-dr-david-martin-with-reiner-fuellmich/

      • Xabier says:

        And worthy of deep consideration is just why, when the narrative for most of 2020 was: ‘Accept restrictions until we can vaccinate the most vulnerable and get back to normal’, as soon as vaccines appeared it changed to: ‘No one will be safe until everyone is vaccinated multiple times’.

        Not even true vaccines, inflicting a death and injury toll which ought to have them withdrawn straight away, and governments still showing implacable determination to get them into everyone in full awareness of the damage being done – this goes far beyond any conceivable profit motive, or as Norman lamely suggests, the simple ‘desire to be seen to be doing something.’

    • vbaker says:

      https://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-347-chatting-with-david-e-martin-about-covid-19-vaccinations-and-other-mass-casualty-events/

      https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/kunstlercast/KunstlerCast_347.mp3

      1:00 Dr. David E. Martin is the Founder and Chairman of M·CAM Inc
      3:00 Fauci corrupts with $191 billion, sees a vaccine for all problems
      6:00 Full vaccination of all children
      8:00 Follow the money to BlackRock, StateStreet, Vangaurd etc
      1200 Vaccine development for SARS, which didnt exist yet
      1400 Violation of gain of function moratorium
      1600 Extent of virus and distraction
      1900 Lancet published paper on Covid19 which was not yet possible
      2100 No novelty, just a distinction from a current virus
      2200 Understanding Covid19, but its the spike protein which is the blood disorder
      2300 Spike Protein are not derived from a natural virus (S1 Spike RNA encoding mechanism)
      2500 Spike Protein is a known toxin
      2600 *** Advertisement – Sage Restoration Linseed Oil ***
      2800 Medical system captured by pharmaceutical
      3000 Consumer medicine
      3200 Vaccinations worthless? No studies on limiting infection or transmission
      3500 Symptoms vs diagnosis
      3600 Vaccination responses, side effects (eg Myocarditis, vascular disorders)
      3800 Pfizer approval race, and Dr. Reiner Fuellmich’s statement on population reduction
      4000 Insolvency vs population (cover)
      4100 *** Sponsor McAlvany Commentary ***
      4300 Military may have been rendered incapacitated (papers have been written)
      4500 Collapse due to manufactured confusion
      4800 Destruction of culture
      5000 Donations to politics hijack the system
      5300 Lampooning the political establishment
      5500 Courts system non functional
      5600 Google sponsored events on why advertisers hate them
      5700 Big tech has priced in criminal behaviour
      5800 Capital repayment
      A001 Public entitlement programs
      A003 A decade over the edge of the cliff
      A004 Reduced expectations
      A006 Economic events / 7 Years of dustbowl
      A007 Legal reckoning over Covid19 / etc
      A008 Justice and Accountability
      A010 Perp walks… maybe

  23. MG says:

    The division between the centre and the perifery is more important than the individual countries. Remember the China called the Empire of the Centre.

    Larger units like USA, EU, African Union, China etc. are about the centres and the declining perifery. It is the depopulation towards the centres that makes the disintegration of such larger continental units less possible.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      yes as long as the Centre countries are trading with each other. The Perifery is becoming a bunch of failed states which will have any of their valuable resources succked up by the Centre.

      the “African Union” (?) is a bunch of those countries.

      • MG says:

        It is interesting that a new centre of Africa – Ethiopia – is created where the human species originated, as Ethiopia with its developing hydroelectricity starts to control the water supply downstream.

        The natural division into continents is something that can not be overlooked.

        It is true that Africa is somewhat subordinated to Euroasia, which is a bigger continent with a better water supply.

      • MG says:

        The civilization centres are concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere because of the prevailing land mass with a good fresh water supply which is widely distributed.

        The Southern Hemisphere was and is a periphery because of a smaller land mass with inadequate/disproportional (Amazonia vs. northeast of Brasil, Kongo vs. the rest of Africa) water supply.

        • Good points.

        • Name says:

          Southern hemisphere is poor, because there is almost no winter there, so people living there are less intelligent on average, than people from northern hemisphere.

          • I don’t think the situation is quite a simple as you are saying, but it is close.

            In some parts of the world, away from the equator, humans needed to somehow deal with cold, dark weather in the winter. These areas learned to burn biomass, later peat moss and coal, to provide heat and warmth. Indirectly, they started selecting for the characteristics we think of as “high IQ”. With the help from these characteristics, there was less need for physical labor. Strong bodies became less rewarded.

            Near the equator, there was less of this selection pressure.

            None of this adequately explains why Asians seems to have the highest IQs, however.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Jared Diamond might beg to differ on this …. but anyway….

  24. MG says:

    No matter what model of the Limits to Growth is applicable, it always implies the population decline.

    There is no such model with the stable human population.

    The creation, maintenance and protection of the human habitats requires energy, but with the accumulation of the genetic mutations and ageing (aka the damage of the human genome), there is a growing need for energy, resources and technology. Which ends like Japan, i. e. the population decline.Or too many people create a food for other species like viruses. Which again creates the opportunity for other species and the decline of the human habitats which are very energy demanding.

  25. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    Klaus Schwab’s ancestors on his mother’s side were Rothschilds.

    • Born into this kind of thinking!

    • Xabier says:

      Certainly of interest.

      More important, perhaps, for the psychology of the vile Schwab is the fact that his father ran a factory in the 3rd Reich, which would have used slave labour – those children were all heavily indoctrinated in Nazism, eugenics, ‘nothing to be ashamed of’, etc.

      On the whole it’s only the grandchildren who questioned and felt any shame.

      Recommended summer read: ‘Architects of Death’ about an industrial family who made the new and improved mass-cremation ovens for the death camps.

      ‘The fact we put our logo on the oven doors shows we didn’t know crimes were being committed with our ovens’.

      When in fact company engineers on site watched as prisoners were gassed and then put in the ovens to test them, timing the process.

  26. MCW says:

    Gail, would be very interested on your ideas about how: a. local, b. national, c. international conflict may arise and play out?

    • I think we are already starting to see conflicts of different types playing out.

      For example, Donald Trump was elected president, even though his ideas were unconventional. He was not reelected, quite possibly because TPTB did not think he fit in with their plans.

      US-China relations are much more strained than they were a few years ago

      UK left the EU.

      Many smaller countries are on the edge of collapse: For example, Lebanon, Venezuela and South Africa.

      Free speech cannot be taken for granted. China has censored the internet, forever. Other countries are becoming more controlling of what messages can be displayed Facebook, YouTube. There is a huge gap between political parties.

      I think the situation gets worse and worse. The EU may dissolve completely, for example. The World Trade Organization will become increasingly non-functional at settling disputes. It eventually may fall apart. An increasing number of countries will find themselves with hungry citizens, demonstrating regarding their poor condition.

      I don’t think hot wars will break out very much. We are too short of resources to waste them bombing infrastructure. Instead, I can imagine more attempts to take down the internet and electricity, using viruses and similar approaches.

      Semiconductor chips are already in short supply. I don’t think this situation will resolve itself through adequate supply. China will want to take control of Taiwan, in order to have more of the semiconductor chips itself. This could actually lead to a “hot war” in Asia. There may also be wars to control oil supply.

      I see financial problems playing a big role in the conflict. At some point, it will be all too clear that there is more debt than can be repaid. Governments will want to cancel debt, but this will interfere with international trade. Somehow, I expect that countries will choose to trade with only a few trusted partners.

      I expect China will trade with Russia and some other countries in the area. It will try to get imports from Africa and Asia. There may be a US/Canada/Canada group as well. I am afraid that Europe will mostly be left out of this.

      I expect that many governments will find it impossible to tax citizens enough. They will tend to fall or be overthrown.

      I expect population will fall, probably by illness as much as anything else.

  27. eKnock says:

    The REAL problem is the Coincidence Theorists.
    TPTB Billionaire WEF Overlord Elders have been trying to solve our population predicament for decades if not centuries. These people have been blessed with unimaginable riches but, they have also been tasked with saving the world. Failure to acknowledge their efforts can not turn out well. We can be thankful that they have maintained compassion in most of their programs. Many people have suffered greatly from these programs but thus far TBWOElders have managed to avoid the chaos and hysteria that would require the use of excessive fire and steel on the masses.
    There are those that contend that the mandatory vaccination laws in England in the early 1800’s were for the good of all. That the harmful effects that prompted over 50,000 people to gather in protest in Leicester on March 23, 1885 were just coincidences. 50,000 conspiracy theorists were out in in 1885. The anti-vaxxer movement is nothing new.
    The compassionate TBWOE have slowed our growing population and deserve recognition. They are not the type of people that will strive for success when their efforts are termed coincidences. They have worked hard to bring us HIV, Ebola, Zika, Swine Flu, Hong Kong Flu, MERS, SARS. Thousands of toxic chemicals and billions of times more EMFs surround us now, than our ancestors ever experienced. It is a new phase of evolution and to call it a coincidence is not fair to those that have invested so much energy and so many resources to save life on Earth.

    • Bei Dawei says:

      If Covid-19 and/or its vaccines are a conspiracy to reduce the world’s population, it won’t work and can’t work. You’d think the Elders would know that. If you want to reduce the population, you have to reduce the food supply. (This is likely to happen, even without any help from the Elders.)

      Oh, and if the Elders favor any particular ethnic group that they wish to protect, I’m sorry to say that it’s an aging population concentrated in dangerous parts of the world.

      • Swine Flu does reduce the food supply, particularly the supply of pigs.

        It seems like wage disparity leads to lower food consumption, whether or not food is available. TPTB would like more wealth for themselves and less for everyone else. That by itself would seem to work toward reducing population. Look at all of the people around the world who are now having troubles affording enough food for themselves and their families.

    • hah ha! Don’t forget WWI, WWII, the Bolshevik revolutions, Holodomor.. They really are only trying to help…

    • Fast Eddy says:

      They don’t refer to us as Goyim (cattle) as a joke… they are dead serious.

  28. Yoshua says:

    “Major websites are offline worldwide”

    Banks and media houses are down in Europe. Sorry Norman, but there seems to always be a virus somewhere trying to collapse the system.

    • I found this article on Zerohedge:

      After Massive Web Outage, Akamai Implements “Fix”, Says “Not Cyberattack”

      Update (1343ET): Websites worldwide are slowly coming back online as Akamai tweets the ongoing situation “was not a result of a cyberattack on the Akamai platform.”

      The problem could be stemming from content delivery company Akamai Technologies. A statement from the company says:

      “Investigating – We are aware of an emerging issue with the Edge DNS service. We are actively investigating the issue. If you have questions or are experiencing impact due to this issue, please contact Akamai Technical Support. In the interest of time, we are providing you the most current information available, which is subject to changes, corrections, and updates.”

  29. Tsubion says:

    The Delta Variant – Fact, Fiction and outright Lies (Dr. Andrew Kaufman Explains)

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/146lKuakCIJf/

    • As I understand it, this video basically says that the genome sequencing approach used to figure out what the RNA of different viruses look like isn’t very good. Vaccine would seem to be only rough approximations to what is needed. We don’t really have clear ideas as to how the Delta and all the other variations different from the original.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The Simple Feeble Mind of a CovIDIOT

      So a CovIDIOT sends me this urging me to get Injected https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/21/coronavirus-texas-vaccinated-deaths/

      I look at it … I see Feb date…. I think … not so many people had been jabbed in Feb… so obviously … (well to a CovIDIOT not obviously obviously)….

      So then I kick the CovIDIOT this https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/foo-fighters-vaccinated-only-concert-canceled-covid-breakthrough-cases/

      CovIDIOT rejects source… not MSM…

      How about this https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

      Silence…

      Then this:

      The virologists including the Nobel prize winner … said (and I can give you the paper) that ‘initially you’d see a drop in the deaths… but as the variants breed inside the vaxxed… the deaths will rise —expect this by summer’

      March: Mass infection prevention and mass vaccination with leaky Covid-19 vaccines in the midst of the pandemic can only breed highly infectious variants. …. he sent this warning to the WHO

      https://37b32f5a-6ed9-4d6d-b3e1-5ec648ad9ed9.filesusr.com/ugd/28d8fe_266039aeb27a4465988c37adec9cd1dc.pdf

      Silence.

      See how easy MOREONS are fooled… the PR Team only needs to be average

      • We are seeing highly infectious variants, but they appear not to bring many hospitalizations or deaths. This seems to be true of Delta, at least. I think variants may be headed downward in severity at the time they are headed upward in frequency.

        We are not seeing a spike in deaths. They may be up a bit, from a low level. One report claimed that US vaccine deaths were higher than COVID-19 deaths for a brief period.

        COVID may disappear as an issue, as it becomes more like seasonal flu in severity. It will also become clear that the vaccines don’t do much more than the flu vaccines have historically done.

        • Xabier says:

          Covid may indeed disappear, in reality.

          But governments will not be prevented by that little fact for using it as a pretext for restrictions, continued economic sector suppression, and their blessed ‘passports’.

          If they want, it can be an ever-present menace. And they will find an number of corrupt medics and health bureaucrats to aid a abet them in the fraud, as they have over the last year and a half.

          Public policy has long departed from good science and reason.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I would not rule out that it never existed and was just another flu…

            If we review this https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/ it looks to be a LOT worse than ‘covid’….

            And if you were to add in the deaths of people ‘with the flu’…. (which is NOT the way we’ve ever counted deaths…) then I suspect we’d have deaths in the US of many many millions.

            The scale of the lies involved are so off the charts (this make WMD look tame)…. that it would not surprise me if covid itself was BS.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Somehow I don’t think this is going to go away on it’s own… given it has been a Massive Lie from the get go….

          It could have gone away long ago — if all countries just followed Great Barrington Focused Protection… not only did they not follow (except Sweden) they ridiculed/blocked the authors.

          And then there is Team Bossche….

        • TIm Groves says:

          My method of assessing the severity of a disease is simple. I ask the question, “Is it more or less contagious and devastating than cooties?”

        • James Speaks says:

          Delta’s lower severity is a consequence of widespread mask wearing. When a large fraction of the population is wearing a mask, and considering that masks only reduce the viral load that is transmitted on average but not prevent transmission entirely, then a severe disease that is transmitted by airborne droplets but is shortlived due to its severity fails in competition with a less severe disease that stays infectious longer but does less harm to the carrier. This is why billions of people get the common cold but less than a thousand (guess) have had Ebola.

  30. Sam says:

    It seems as if all countries are just adding debt and denial to the system. Can it be wiped out like after Ww1 and WW2? A sort of bretton woods agreement?

    • With a huge amount of international trade today, and not enough energy supply, we really seem to need debt.

      I expect that we may find out whether debt can be wiped out without destroying the international economy. Perhaps local economies can continue to exist, with their own local debt. It seems like countries need to trust each other for international trade to continue. Perhaps a system can be set up that allows debt between trusted allies.

      • houtskool says:

        Debt without yield is monetization. If we support one child families, the cost would go down over time.
        /s
        Jig is up. And that is a good thing. Fighting over bug-burgers in a pool of diversity ain’t going to work.

      • James Speaks says:

        The alternative to debt is cash only.

        Q: But what is cash without debt?
        A: Gold at $100,000 per ounce for international trade, labor hour tokens for internal commerce. Onshore money and offshore money. China already does that, IIRC.

        • without underlying energy input, cash is ultimately worth nothing.

          • Right! There have to be goods and services produced to make money work.

            • James Speaks says:

              I’m thinking that gold will be needed to purchase fossil fuels and essential rare earth metals.

          • houtskool says:

            Currency, or money? Monetary plane or physical plane? Everything goes up= we can afford the monetary plane. We passed that one. So, enter the physical plane. Going to cost a few billion lives though. If we survive.

            • you can use cattle as currency—many people do.

              a cow is energy on four legs—so the same laws apply

              planes in that context are abstract

            • That’s also a bit difficult, as livestock need investment in fencing, housing, feed, vet care to a degree… In my area many farms are going out of business since their overhead is too great.

              Holding on to an asset (whether it is gold or cattle or cans of beans) can end up costing (in money and/or energy terms) more than the asset is worth.. I am tempted to say that assets *always* end up costing more than they are worth, because that jibes with the 2LoT as I understand it. The energy necessary to hold the asset needs to come from “somewhere else”…

            • Good point:

              The energy necessary to hold the asset needs to come from “somewhere else”…

              Where I live, termites will eat the wood in a house if frequent treatments aren’t available. Water leaks also tend to be a problem. They can destroy a home quickly.

            • Anthropologists have studied “potlatch” cultures, where the chief or others with accumulated wealth would get rid of it in a seasonal ceremony.. whether conspicuously destroying physical artworks they had created, or throwing a big food-consumption party. I’ve read opinions of woke moderns painting this practice as somehow intellectually or ideologically enlightened/virtuous/noble but (not to cast any aspersions on the subjects being reported upon) it’s easier for me to imagine those practices came about because the cost of retaining the food/items over time was not logistically bearable in a culture living fairly close to the bone.

  31. MG says:

    Limits to Growth revisited:

    https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2021/limits-to-growth.html

    https://advisory.kpmg.us/content/dam/advisory/en/pdfs/2021/yale-publication.pdf

    Update to limits to growth
    Comparing the World3 model with empirical data
    Gaya Herrington

    “Empirical world data was compared against scenarios from the last LtG book, created by the World3 model. The data comparison, which used the latest World3 version, included four scenarios: BAU, BAU2, CT, and SW. Empirical data showed a relatively close fit for most of the variables. This was true to some extent for all scenarios, because in several cases the scenarios do not significantly diverge until 2020. When scenarios had started to diverge, the ones that aligned closest with empirical data most often were BAU2 and CT. This result is different to previous comparisons that used the earlier World3 version, and which indicated BAU as the most closely followed scenario. The scenario that depicts the smallest declines in economic output, SW, is also the one that aligned least closely with observed data. Furthermore, the two closest aligning scenarios BAU2 and CT, respectively, predict a collapse pattern and moderate decline in output. At this point therefore, the data most aligns with the CT and BAU2 scenarios which indicate a slowdown and eventual halt in growth within the next decade or so, but World3 leaves open whether the subsequent decline will constitute a collapse. World3 also indicates the possibility, for now, of limiting declines to less than in the CT. Although SW tracks least closely, a deliberate trajectory change brought about by society turning toward another goal than growth is still possible. The LtG work implies that this window of opportunity is closing fast.”

    • I think that the CT scenario is absurd, and the SW even more absurd.

      If a person puts together absurd scenarios, and postulates that changes can be made, they can “prove” almost anything.

  32. Yoshua says:

    The fully “vaccinated” in Israel and UK getting infected is exactly what Bossche said would happen.

    The experimental junk vaccines only create antibodies against the spike protein. Mutations in the spike protein will lead to immune escape and make the junk vaccines useless. We will never reach herd immunity this way. We need a vaccine that creates memory T cells against the virus.

    We have just wasted our time.

    https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/not-covid-19-vaccine-mediated-but-naturally-acquired-immunity-enables-herd-immunity

    • Alex says:

      Where is the “uncontrollable monster” predicted by Vaxdem Bullshe? Hmm?

      We don’t need mass vaccination against flu or sniffles with any experimental vaccines, not even those promoted by this controlled opposition big pharma shill.

    • This essay is not written for lay people. The most understandable part is the Conclusion:

      From the very beginning of the mass vaccination program, it should have been clear that because of the intrinsic limitations of S-based Covid-19 vaccines and their deployment in mass vaccination campaigns in the midst of a pandemic, herd immunity was simply the last thing this mass vaccination program could possibly achieve and that moving this program forward would fulfill all the conditions for driving S-directed viral immune escape to eventually result in full resistance of Sars-CoV-2 to the Covid-19 vaccines. Boosting vaccinal Abs with 2nd generation vaccines is not going to solve the issue of immune escape, even if the immunization with ‘updated’ vaccines would be repeated by 6-month intervals. This is because 2nd generation vaccines will primarily recall S-specific Abs elicited by the first generation vaccines (due to ‘antigenic sin’) and not be effective against recombinations of Sars-CoV-2 variants, which are highly likely to occur as a result of co-infection, especially in the most vulnerable.

      The more rational way to control infectious viral transmission in a pandemic of an acute, self-limiting viral infection and to achieve herd immunity is to use live attenuated vaccines. An even more effective approach to immune intervention in a pandemic is to use vaccines capable of conferring sterilizing immunity as those will rapidly and dramatically reduce (asymptomatic!) viral transmission, thereby providing herd immunity at a low vaccine coverage rate and eventually enable virus eradication.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I am wondering if the ‘booster shots’ that are coming are akin to smashing in the skull of someone that you have already beaten to the edge of certain death with a shovel….

        As he lays in the ditch with a shattered skull and blood pouring in the mud… you pick up a heavy boulder, raise it over your head and with all your might, bring it down on his face. Then you spit on him and say ‘that’ll teach you!’

        Extinction is already guaranteed now that 14% of the global population is fully Injected… and nearly 4 billion doses Injected…. but if you want to boost and accelerate the production of Devil Covid variants you throw a bucket of petrol on the fire….

        It would make sense — you don’t want that son of a bitch miraculously recovering a few days later only to come looking for you with a shotgun….

        And we know that there are plenty of countries on the verge of total collapse…. kill it dead… real dead.

    • Yoshua, whether they are “wasting their time” depends on what you think the goal has been…

      https://www.gettyimages.in/detail/video/dr-david-bauer-interview-francis-crick-institute-gvs-news-footage/1325046154

      • Above is a short clip of a researcher in the UK talking about “jab” efficacy as determined by their measuring of antibodies. “Jabs” only 1/6th as “effective” against new strains as compared to original; jabs increasingly less effective in the elderly and increasingly less effective over time; hence, everyone must have more jabs…

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Calm before storm

      As the vast majority of individuals in the younger age groups have either not been vaccinated at all or only received a single shot of a 2-dose vaccine, the level of their functional (i.e., non-suppressed) innate antibodies (Abs) may still be high enough to prevent severe disease. I presume that this situation is going to change for the worse when i) the virus becomes resistant to the current vaccines (which genomic epidemiologists acknowledge is inevitably going to occur) and ii) the number of fully vaccinated youngsters is going to substantially increase.

  33. Fast Eddy says:

    As per data, a family of five was now spending nearly 3.5 million Lebanese pounds on food alone in a month. This has pushed several people below the poverty line as the minimum wage of the country is 675,000 Lebanese pounds.

    https://www.wionews.com/world/lebanon-families-spending-five-times-minimum-wage-on-food-alone-study-399497

  34. Fast Eddy says:

    oh… the header: mmunization with SARS Coronavirus Vaccines Leads to Pulmonary Immunopathology on Challenge with the SARS Virus

  35. Fast Eddy says:

    Background

    Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) emerged in China in 2002 and spread to other countries before brought under control. Because of a concern for reemergence or a deliberate release of the SARS coronavirus, vaccine development was initiated. Evaluations of an inactivated whole virus vaccine in ferrets and nonhuman primates and a virus-like-particle vaccine in mice induced protection against infection but challenged animals exhibited an immunopathologic-type lung disease.

    Design

    Four candidate vaccines for humans with or without alum adjuvant were evaluated in a mouse model of SARS, a VLP vaccine, the vaccine given to ferrets and NHP, another whole virus vaccine and an rDNA-produced S protein. Balb/c or C57BL/6 mice were vaccinated IM on day 0 and 28 and sacrificed for serum antibody measurements or challenged with live virus on day 56. On day 58, challenged mice were sacrificed and lungs obtained for virus and histopathology.

    Results

    All vaccines induced serum neutralizing antibody with increasing dosages and/or alum significantly increasing responses. Significant reductions of SARS-CoV two days after challenge was seen for all vaccines and prior live SARS-CoV. All mice exhibited histopathologic changes in lungs two days after challenge including all animals vaccinated (Balb/C and C57BL/6) or given live virus, influenza vaccine, or PBS suggesting infection occurred in all. Histopathology seen in animals given one of the SARS-CoV vaccines was uniformly a Th2-type immunopathology with prominent eosinophil infiltration, confirmed with special eosinophil stains. The pathologic changes seen in all control groups lacked the eosinophil prominence.

    Conclusions

    These SARS-CoV vaccines all induced antibody and protection against infection with SARS-CoV. However, challenge of mice given any of the vaccines led to occurrence of Th2-type immunopathology suggesting hypersensitivity to SARS-CoV components was induced. Caution in proceeding to application of a SARS-CoV vaccine in humans is indicated.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/

    Of course all these issues were fixed and fully tested…

    • This is the 2012 article, “Immunization with SARS Coronavirus Vaccines Leads to Pulmonary Immunopathology on Challenge with the SARS Virus.”

      I agree that the 2012 issues have not been addressed.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        BTW – the only way to find articles like this is to use the custom date search filter….

        Fast Eddy is the only person on the planet to have realized that … so he is the only one to be aware of this article.

        Anyone else searching would have run into the PR Team’s Deluge

  36. Fast Eddy says:

    ALL ‘vaxed’ and ‘non-vaxed’, Left and Right, stand together and resist the ‘Vax Pass’.

    RESIST

    Keep all children away from the experimental injections.

    RESIST

    Say No to ‘boosters’.

    RESIST

    Boycott any establishment that requires proof of double jabs.

    RESIST

    Defund the BBC and do not buy newspapers.

    RESIST

    Refuse to wear a mask.

    RESIST

    Do not vote for any politician who has supported the imposition of lockdowns.

    RESIST

    Demonstrate lawfully at every opportunity.

    RESIST

    Do not use the Test and Trace App.

    RESIST

    Do not get tested.

    RESIST

    Time is short.

    RESIST or become a slave of the state.

    https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/rules-for-the-resistance/

    I can think of some much more… effective… resistance measures ….

    • Bei Dawei says:

      When you hear the people sing
      Singing a song they learned from Q
      It is the music of a people
      Who will get the Chinese Flu

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    WHATEVER has happened to the British police? On Monday evening, a TCW reader posted a long amateur film in our Comments section, footage of the ‘Freedom Day’ Parliament Square protests.

    It is a disturbing and shocking watch and I found myself almost in a state of anxiety as I looked at it. I thought I was about to witness a police killing, here in the UK.

    If you watch, you will see a protester (presumably) held to the ground by a number of officers and a further protective cordon of police around them – designed, it seemed, to stop the possibility of anyone coming to the man’s aid, or seeing what was going on.

    This was no two-minute incident. From an early scene of one policeman punching the ‘body’ they had pinned down and being pulled off, it went on – later showing another astride the man’s body. It looked as though he could die there. Where was the ambulance?

    Why were dozens of police apparently needed to overpower this one man? How and why could that possibly be necessary? He was seen later kneeling then standing up, and did not appear to be armed. He was finally forcefully pushed into the cage of a police van.

    Video https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/lockdown-demo-a-brutal-assault-by-the-police-a-blind-eye-by-the-media/

    Gets violent here https://youtu.be/u0N_VzOVkXs?t=528

    Now do we understand why Americans like to own guns?

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      The assaulting officer appears to be pulling his punches in the video at the first link – his fist keeps glancing over the top of the victim’s shoulders. WWF wrestling style?
      Public displays like this, often choreographed theater, are put on to send a message to the rest of us:

      Don’t challenge us or you will be isolated and abused. We outnumber you and no one will come to your aid.

      As the people running the show become increasingly fearful of the rest of us, they’ll continue putting on public displays of force and working towards making Earth a prison planet.

  38. when the theme of this post is:

    To Be Sustainable, Green Energy Must Generate Adequate Taxable Revenue.

    can someone explain why 80% of the comments are about Covid?

    just curious.

    Could it be that the main body of that 80% know nothing about the subject, so must regurgitate stuff they do think they know about, which is in fact re re re regurgitated stuff from ‘reliable sources’, long refuted by mainstream science. (and common sense)

    The same process has been going on for years now

    take any ‘world event’. (anything will do.)

    It automatically goes on the ‘conspiracy list’, no matter how far it is backdated.

    no form of fresh thought is required (just as well)

    Just take the nonsenses spouted about whatever last year’s (or whenever) conspiracy was, and overlay them onto the latest one.

    To all intents and purposes, there is no difference. A fascinating revelation of the workings of the collective human mind. I probe here, (the scientific term for eddystirring) because that is one of my main interests. I can’t write stuff unless I have an awareness of that.

    Barstool ranting tells me so much.

    Endless parroting of the same words, by the same individuals, just the odd one changed here and there to fit a different circumstance. The dialogue remains the same. As does the certainty of truth.

    The self revealing ridicule of those who choose to point out that the (self styled) empereror is in fact nekkid. And that those he gathers around him for support, must of necessity go nekkid too, to avoid mutual embarrassment.

    Find a video of a Trump rally. Look at the crowd behind him. Then look at the faces on Jan 6th.

    they are the mirror of the emperor’s naked self. They believe in the emperors clothes. they are mentally unstable, they must be. I saw one of them haranguing an astronaut about his non moon landing.

    Trump parroted nonsenses, (still does) they cheered him on. (and of course repeated them). They cannot now ‘unbelieve’ the Ponzi scheme of the Trump era. No one likes being made a fool of.

    They are the reflection of human gullibility, which multiplies faster than any virus.

    • I suppose the subject of taxable revenue is difficult to discuss. COVID, and vaccinations related to COVID, is what is on a lot of people’s minds.

      The issue is having surpluses available to help other parts of the economy. In fact, those surpluses need to be storable surpluses. Intermittent electricity is not a storable surplus, unless all analyses include the cost of batteries to store the electricity from summer to winter, or whenever it is needed. EROEI analyses unfortunately give misleadingly favorable impressions of intermittent electricity, since they leave out the storage issue. (They are too favorable in other ways as well.)

      • FoolishFitz says:

        Given your final sentence Gail

        “In fact, if Green Energy products are truly producing large amounts of net energy, they should be so profitable that businesses will be rapidly ramping up their production, even without subsidies or mandates.”

        You nailed the delusion of taxable income from the so called green industry. It appears to be a fraud of massive scale, but so many believe it will allow them to continue the destruction.

        Strange world, thanks for the gems of sanity 😏

    • Tim Groves says:

      when the theme of this post is:

      To Be Sustainable, Green Energy Must Generate Adequate Taxable Revenue.

      Can someone explain why 80% of Norman’s comments are about how other commentators are mentally unstable and the rest are about Trump or about Norman’s personal life?

      Talk about people in glass houses.

      Norman, if you’d like to make a comment specifically on the subject of the post, rather than ranting on and on and on about irrelevancies, please go ahead. We’re all ears. I for one would appreciate the novelty. Take it away, Jake!

      • I’ve made lots of comments over years on the subject in hand. Mostly pointless because in workable terms nobody has a clue what to do about it. I certainly don’t.

        Taxable activity requires infinite energy availability.

        Six words.
        Simple
        Sums up the entire post.
        And the predicament of humankind.

        How hard is that to understand? If you can offer an alternative from your position of lofty intellect I would be delighted to hear about it?

        And so would everybody else I daresay.

        I didn’t think up those 6 words till I came to write this comment btw.

        Personal life? I have 3 kids, 7 grandkids and 6 great grandkids—does that upset you? I can only treat that lightheartedly because I’m seriously scared for their future.. Particularly the greats. I discuss nothing else in that respect here..
        Perhaps you would care to point out where I have transgressed in that area too?
        I think you may have assimilated information that wasn’t there.

        I swear I didn’t sell them to the local chimney sweep. I lied about that.

        If a joke made months ago about doing my part for population growth, in late 50s, constitutes ‘personal life’, I can only assume the worst for your own.
        maybe that was it.

        On the subject of mental instability, I only make replies.

        Someone posts an video of someone clearly mentally disturbed (as ‘proof’ of something or other)

        Or numerous other snippets of obvious wackiness. (Iron filings anyone?)

        and I am supposed to nod in agreement? Rather than puncture fragile egos?

        Perhaps I am required to nod sagely at the screaming lunatics standing behind Trump on Jan 6th? And agree that they took the wisdom of Solomon down to the political arena, despite the obvious fact that Trump is off his head and clearly a menace to society. And they with him.
        I see the FBI are making regular arrests now.

        That of course is entirely irrelevant?

        love Jake Thakray btw–great stuff.—not quite the same thread—but no matter

        • Tim Groves says:

          Norman, what a lot of waffle, some of it very pleasant and amusing waffle, you come up with.

          A lot of us made lots of comments on renewables being fit for purpose or not, being potential tax cows or not, etc. That’s not the point.

          The point is that you are just as guilty of what you complain other commenters are doing as they are. I just wanted to point that out, in a gentle way, so that you could see it, acknowledge it, and if, on reflection, you count it a vice, refrain from doing it in future.

          I’m not asking you for a groveling apology on your knees. Although to paraphrase something Daarth Vader said in one of the Star Wars movies, “Fast Eddy is not as forgiving as I am.”

          I’m also as guilty as the next commenter or more so of being “off topic”, but I’m not the one complaining about other people exercising their fundamental human right to be irrelevant.

          I wish you joy of your grandchildren, and your great grandchildren. The future at this point is unwritten, and certainly not written in stone, and the younger generations may fare a lot better than some of us fear at this junction.

          • waffle–possibly–probably for some stuff.

            I read back over my too-long comment to which you replied. It was a verbal delivery of the current situation. No waffle. Just an invitation to refute anything I said.

            you didn’t. merely offered ‘waffle’.

            My description of Jan 6th was ‘waffle?

            Observing that an individual (sadly) is mentally ill–is waffle?

            Interesting.

            i try to put over pertinent points, often impertinent by the judgement of some

            impertinent because it goes against ingrained beliefs and certainties of yourself and others.

            I don’t ‘complain’ about certain notions being suspect, I just demonstrate that they are.

            Oddly I have a (later) life philosophy of never ‘complaining’ about anything. Pointless.

            I would be interested in a referral back to any post of mine in which I screamed ‘conspiracy!’ at whatever world event was under discussion.

            >>>>Taxable activity requires infinite energy availability.<<<<

            I would would be seriously interested in seeing your dissection of that sentence,, pointing out the waffly bits?

        • Tim Groves says:

          Taxable activity requires infinite energy availability….

          If you can offer an alternative from your position of lofty intellect I would be delighted to hear about it?

          I don’t know about lofty, but my alternative would be along the lines of :

          Taxable activity requires adequate energy availability.

          “Infinite” would be overkill, not to mention impossible in a finite Universe.

          The next question would be:

          How much energy is adequate?

          Because “adequate” (satisfactory or acceptable in quality or quantity) by itself tells us nothing about how much energy needs to be available to facilitate taxation. We would need to quantify it.

          Until quite recently, Japan had a tax on rice-growing, based on the acreage planted. I can remember paying about 10,000 yen a year the government to grow what in my case is about a ton of rice.

          These days that tax is not levied at least on small growers, and in any case it was not an onerous burden. But back in the Edo Period, the rice tax, paid in the form of rice, was a mechanism for feeding the warrior class and keeping the peasant class poor.

          And those peasants didn’t have access to infinite energy. Their means were very finite. If they were lucky, they had a cow to help with the ploughing, but everything else was done by human labour, and it was back-bending or even back-breaking work.

          And on top of that they were taxed on what they produced. The amount of energy available to them was just about adequate to keep them alive if they kept working hard and were able to escape the ravages of injury, illness, bandits and bad weather. But it was enough to support the local warlords and and keep the system running.

          • if you study the history of humankind, at no point in that history have we been content (in the collective sense) with adequate.
            We demand government services, that means growth of taxation. We, the ‘non elite’ imagine it will go on in the future as it has in a (very recent) past. Forever.

            no one has access to infinite energy

            I thought that was blindingly obvious.

            When polticians promise, and their followers believe, in infinite growth,
            they have a certainty of ‘infinite energy.’ No matter how nonsensical the concept

            While I obviously defer to your knowledge of the fine detail of Japanese living,
            Citing the medieval condition in one isolated state centuries ago is equally devoid of substance. Britain was much the same during that period. Only the details differ.

            40 years after the Japanese got their hands on modern weapons, they dispensed with their medieval lifestyle, and defeated the Russian navy. 40 years after that they attacked the British Empire and the USA simultaneously–they had no choice, they needed access to infinite amounts of resources to sustain their war machine.
            They ignored the reality of ‘infinite growth’. Yet somehow Germany and Japan thought it was possible.–or so many centuries ahead as to be discounted.

            Had they not been stopped, my reckoning on the culmination of WW2 is that Germany and Japan would have met up somewhere around Afghanistan and then started fighting each other.

          • Xabier says:

            Perfectly correct, Tim.

    • Yorchichan says:

      It’s true that Fast Eddy and Tim Groves have always promoted conspiracy theories on OFW, but other commenters have for the most part steered clear of them. In the case of the official covid19 narrative, however, the overwhelming majority of OFW commenters believe it has been full of lies from the outset and that the pushing of covid19 vaccines on the whole world can only be for sinister purpose. An overwhelming majority of people who come across in their comments as highly intelligent.

      I know you are intelligent too, Norman, and you did well in your 11+ exams, but you find yourself now in a small minority. The less said about your allies the better. Doesn’t this tell you anything? Don’t you doubt yourself sometimes? You are well aware of how the psychopaths who rise to the top have treated the lives of the lower classes as expendable throughout the ages. Why do you believe the elite care about the health of the masses now when they have little use for most of us?

      • I doubt myself all the time

        on many subjects

        There is a saying (Confucius probably) : The idiot will never know the full extent of his stupidity, the wise man knows he will never be wise enough.

        but when giving thought to the ‘elite’ somehow dispensing with the rest of us, (the main theme of a proposition where I am regularly taken to task for pointing out the breathtaking lunacy of it) as is so often proposed on OFW, my weird little mind always—always comes round to the problem of flushing Mr Bezos’s toilet.
        I grant mr Bezos the mental facility of asking himself the same question. (Despite the shape of his latest toy)

        I ask the same question of the mass extermination cartel on OFW

        No one as yet has answered it

        I know I’m in a minority

        and I am not interested in allies

        but when Hawking, supposedly in the superbrain league, tells us that humanity’s problems will be solved by finding another planet to live on, using technologies not yet thought of, let alone invented, using an existing industrial base that depends entirely on consumption of short term finite resources…..I start to lose any self doubt.
        (Hawking et al conveniently ignore the possibility that the ‘suitable planet’ will almost certainly have bad tempered natives already living there)

        Or when Musk says he’s selling his earth home to fund his Mars home

        I know it isn’t me who’s nuts.

        I know that the wealthy elite care nothing for the ultimate overall health of the Lower orders–we have always been expendable. history confirms that. I don’t think I have ever inferred that they do.
        Opportunists rise to the top. If they are psycho as well–so much the worse for the rest of us.

        But we have now reached a new level, where no-one—and I do mean no one, knows what to do to survive the future, which will undoubtedly be unpleasant.
        Most ignore the problem and hope it will go away. (I wrote that in 2013, on the intro page of my book, The End of More btw). Back then it seemed the most important part of what I was trying to say. It still does, more than ever.

        And it applies to rich and poor alike.

        We make up stories about why things are as they are—A Conspiracy! A plot! a hoax! Sorry about my sick laughter.

        We are where we are through the insatiable greed of all of us. Some more than others, but I exclude no one.

        We poor people can do very little.

        The rich elite (as always) delude themselves that money will buy absolution. (google history on that one) so they build castles and bunkers. The world is littered with ruined dreams of eternal prosperity.

        As to pushing vaccine on the rest of us, this is a knee jerk reaction to be seen to be ‘doing something’. It may well be a waste of time.
        It is not a plot against humankind.

        my hilarity, (I have no other suitable response) derives from the concept of the entire scientific/medical/political community somehow colluding in every nation on earth, to do it. That it is a ‘sinister plot’ to control us all, so that mad genius Gates can sit in front of his computer, cackling insanely, and determining our destinies by some kind of hidden force. (While Seattle burns of course)

        Shades of Nero or what?

        Are you laughing yet?

        You couldn’t make it up, as they say. But people do just that.

        • Azure Kingfisher says:

          Norman, thank you for your thoughts.

          I must say, though, I have trouble with this idea that it “…always comes round to the problem of flushing Mr. Bezos’s toilet.” I understand your argument that the “elites” at the top need a substantial pyramid base of “lesser humans” upon which to stand. However, I find it unlikely that these “elites” are not keenly aware of finite world problems.
          Of course Mr. Bezos would prefer to have an army of servants flushing his toilet while he continues to live a life of luxury. But what if Mr. Bezos has made a mental shift and now perceives the Earth as an increasingly crowded life raft and is looking at the best way to ensure his own survival?
          You speak as though the “elites” have no choice with regard to preserving their current lifestyles; as though they are “stuck” with us as a permanent resource base. Do you think they wouldn’t sacrifice that resource base if it came down to their own survival versus ours? Do you think that Mr. Bezos isn’t prepared (or isn’t preparing himself) for a future world of finite resources? One in which he will have to flush his own toilet, and then, eventually one in which he will have no flushing toilet?
          Ultimately, the problem of finite resources touches everyone – rich or poor. Do you believe that the “elites” aren’t aware of this? That they don’t expend some of their wealth, power, influence, and connections on strategizing how best to position themselves in a future of declining resources?

          • JMS says:

            “That they don’t expend some of their wealth, power, influence, and connections on strategizing how best to position themselves in a future of declining resources?”

            C’mon, strategizing?! What a preposterous idea, simply unthinkable, even verging on the infamous term conzpiracy!
            Nah, everyone knows that millionaires are unable to plan even an excursion to the nearest park, let alone strategize about anything!
            Amazing that anyone can believe that they gather in Davos and elsewhere for something other than showing around photos of their grandchildren, their girlfriends and their car collections. Conzpiracy nuts, bah!

          • I use Mr Bezos’s toilet as an allegory for everything else. I pitched my comment that way, thinking it would need no further explanation,

            it doesn’t matter if they ‘get it’ or not.

            there cannot be any ‘alternative system’. It would be possible to use wealth to ‘extend’ things for a year or two, but that would be by using the ‘old’ system

            The cash assets of the wealthy cannot ‘buy’ resources if those resources do not exist.
            Energy brings money into existence….no amount of money will bring energy into existence.

            Arguing the details of it on OFW might be amusing, but will not change that law.

            it will not be possible to buy fuel for a private jet if the rest of us do not prop up the energy pyramid by buying petrol

            yes elites have thoughts about the fragile future, but when Branson Bezos an Musk tell us that space travel is a ‘business venture’ we are left with the idea that they think it won’t apply to them.

            ‘Somehow being able to buy rocket scientists makes them rocket scientists. It doesn’t.

            If I was a rocket scientist and Bezos offered me a 6 figure salary to build his rockets, I would jump at it. The word ‘stupid’ wouldn’t be heard

        • Yorchichan says:

          Most people could die and it would not inconvenience the elite one little bit. Think in energy terms and not financial terms. Look at how unaffected vital services have been despite non “key workers” being locked down in much of the world. If these non key workers stopped consuming, that would not affect the elite. Less of us, more resources for them. That’s how they see it. The extermination has to be done in stages to avoid chaos, but population reduction is all part of the plan.

          • Xabier says:

            We just have to put FE’s amusing and outrageous CEP to one side, and look at the hypothesis of a staged elimination of ‘obsolescent human capital’ over a decade or so, most probably by increased general death rates and sterilisation.

            Perhaps too by engineered famine – in non-Core regions – or controlled mass under-nutrition in certain sectors of society and age groups.

          • I read it and find it hard to believe it.

            I read again, and thought–this has to be an attempt at a windup–or something, a pupil of Eddy maybe. Some wealthy people might indeed see it as you suggest. They have no desire to understand reality.

            Is It so hard to understand that the past covid year or so has been merely ‘freewheeling’?

            I write this stuff down to fix it clearly in my own mind
            thinking is good exercise.

            ‘resources’ cannot function on a less is more formula.

            The Sheiks of Saudi sat on oil for thousands of years. Why were they not billionaires 1000 years ago? Can you not grasp the simple law of economics that kept them in a poverty desert until a means was found to extract their oil and convert it into something else.?

            That is the source of wealth. in less than 100 years they went from camels to gold plated Mercedes—ie–they traded their assets for shiny trinkets. In another 100 years they will be back on camels again–aint life a bitch?

            If we no longer existed, Bezos would not only have to empty his toilet by bucket, but all his sheds would empty and he would be a pauper like everyone else.

            Oil is the function of everything. Oil turns into wealth only when we use it to make something else. Not until. Without oil no other resource can maintain its current value. And I do mean none.

            A house rises in ‘value’ x 100 or more over a few decades. Why? because the cost of oil has driven up the price of everything that makes a house possible to exist.

            Reduce oilflow by 90% just to supply a rich elite, and fulfil your fantasies, and the global economic system would implode.
            You can’t run the oil business ate 100% because there would be nothing to spend the oil wealth on–so it would stay under the desert.

            we are headed that way right now.

            Where do you get these ideas from?

            I still want to believe you’re having me on

          • DJ says:

            With all of the rich world having an old population and fertility rate falling towards (below?) 1. If only borders were closed resources per capita would stay flat, in non-developing countries also, even if total resources fell.

            If that is not enough then increased inequality could help.

          • Tim Groves says:

            My view is a lot closer to Yochichan’s than to Norman’s on the subject.

            Exterminating the other in order to have more for one’s own group must be encoded in the human genome somewhere. Chimps do it. Squirrels do it. Cuckoos, where would they be without it. Even plants do it in a variety of ways. Humans have done it on and off. The Romans used to be were quite good at it. Ask any Carthaginian.

            As a generalization, the powers that be, the super rich, the elites, or what have you, regard themselves as a race apart. At a minimum, their self interest trumps the interests of lesser mortals. When it comes to running the world, they call the shots. If they find it essential to drastically reduce energy use or population size in their own interest, they will have no trouble convincing each other that it is in the general interest because in their opinion, the interest of their group is synonymous with the general interest.

            As Yochichan says, “extermination has to be done in stages to avoid chaos, but population reduction is all part of the plan.” If it could be done fast enough through birth control or by increasing infertility, that would be optimal. But if not, more drastic measures may be called for.

            IMHO, the Covid-19 injectables, which are being promoted for administration to basically everybody who isn’t a member of the powers that be, and are useless in protecting anybody against any pathogen, but are now known to cause blood clotting that is potentially fatal and may well precipitate autoimmune diseases, represent an excellent means of achieving depopulation, both through rendering women of childbearing age infertile and by sickening and weakening many people into an early death.

            As Mike Yeadon has said:

            “If you wanted to depopulate a significant portion of the world, and to do it in a way that wouldn’t require destruction of the environment with nuclear weapons, or poisoning everyone with anthrax or something, and you wanted plausible deniability, you invent a multi-year infectious disease crisis. I don’t think you could come up with a better plan of work than what seems to be in from of me. I can’t say that’s what they’re going to do, but I cannot think of a benign explanation for why they are doing it.”

            • Xabier says:

              They have the perfect model in the Russian semi-collapse: rapid population reduction in a high stress environment, the ‘inessentials’ despairing and dying at a higher rate, couples not having children, etc, and – this is the beauty of it – passing almost unnoticed as Orlov observed.

            • Good point!

        • Xabier says:

          I suggest the problem is that the situation exceeds the scope of imagination of people like Norman, and this is partly because they tend to rely on too narrow a range of sources and have in consequence an imperfect understanding of how the world is now structured politically and financially.

          Global co-ordination on this scale is perfectly possible in theory : the institutions exist – IMF, WEF, BIS, UN, all the central and other banks, various Foundations and Trusts, investment funds, the Five Eyes agencies, GCHQ, Big Pharma, Big Tech, powerful centralised state health agencies, etc.

          Very few people, comparatively, can now pull levers that control almost everything, and instruct armies of nobodies to implement their decrees and regulations.

          A perpetual ‘state of health/climate emergency’ enables them to eliminate civil and human rights with ease, and creates a stressed and frightened public easier to manipulate.

          It is also fair to say that accurate info on these major players will never be found in the MSM which people like Norman seem to tend to trust, as a kind of generational habit, a left-over from the past.

          The highest quality journalism is now found outside the MSM, and that they rub shoulders with not a few nuts is neither here nor there – they have been pushed to the margins. One has to sift the wheat from the chaff.

          Such people will also be unaware as to which commentators and often distinguished scientists are being virtually eliminated and pushed out of sight by the new censorship, and also those who try to share their videos and tweets, however authoritative and respectable the content, if it goes against the official narrative.

          I have never been a CT addict, and I laughed at those bearded men who appeared in March 2020, shouting in the woods ‘This is they’ve started!’ but have certainly discovered a lot of interesting connections since I first sensed that something was up as the senseless 2nd lock-downs were imposed, the ‘vaccines’ suddenly appeared on the horizon like magic, and the parallels with historical events that led to Totalitarian dictatorships in the 20th century just piled up – in almost every advanced country one can think of, all following the same playbook with minor local variations.

          Perhaps it can be said that, like Collapse itself, and the energy predicament, people will settle at their own level of understanding of a subject like this depending on how much information they are prepared to admit into their ‘acceptable’ category of sources, and how much mental discomfort they can tolerate, as it is indeed alarming and more and more sinister.

          If,for instance, they see Whitney Webb as a meer ‘CT blogger nut’ because not employed by the BBC, they’ll miss some excellent, high-information content articles on the ambitions and connections of Big Pharma, the Wellcome Trust, DARPA, Big Tech,Mossad, and various career politicians and financiers,etc.

          • Fillmore East says:

            Great post Xabier!

            • Xabier says:

              Thank you: I am trying to be fair to Norman and the millions just like him, all those still wearing masks in the street on a sunny day and deriding ‘online CT nuts’.

              Although unlike them, Norman does understand the energy predicament.

              They have inadequate sources of information, lack imagination and intuition, and seem to have missed the whole history of the 20th century tyrannies (and can’t even learn from modern China).

              So their conclusion and actions are completely logical, but based on false premises.

          • Malcopian says:

            I remember reading in The Economist, before Jimmy Carter’s election as president, that he had had to meet David Rockefeller and had got on well with him. The article stated that all presidential candidates had to be approved by Rockefeller. This puzzled me greatly at the time. Not any more. Just a pity that I don’t remember the name of the author of the article.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            ‘the ‘vaccines’ suddenly appeared on the horizon like magic’

            I don’t know how many times I was told ‘the vaccines will be here in the new year and we’ll be out of this by march’…

            I was reading this at the time https://www.wired.com/2003/05/feds-race-to-make-sars-vaccine/ and thinking… hmmmm… less than a year… and we have the magic bullet ….

            I recall having drinks with some people — and the safety concern was raised — and one of the guys (he was head of asia at one point for a big pharma outfit)… said — oh they would not release something unless it was thoroughly tested — of course it’s safe…

            I was tempted to mention that there are no long term studies… but why have the night escalate into an all out brawl….

            I subsequently did mention to him recently that I heard Mike Yeadon ask why this was not being given only to people at risk… why give it to healthy people including children… he did respond indicating that was a concern…. (but he may have been trying to avoid a brawl).

            End of the day — if you knew that covid is as likely as the flu to kill you if you contract it … would you put an experiment into your body? Of course not… but nobody knows that … and ‘it’s worth the risk to get injected’

            Photos of people lying dead on the street or gasping for air …will do that to animals.

          • postkey says:

            So the ‘plutocracy’ {which, through its control of the media and the political process [eg J. Corbyn in the UK?], remains unchallenged?} deliberately {or at the request of W.H.G.?} makes thousands of young people unemployed and threatens huge food shortages?

            Insurrection anyone?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Yes I can imagine you have doubts about 1+1… because the MSM told you it’s 4.

        • Mark says:

          “It is not a plot against humankind.”
          Agreed. Although, by the divisiveness created, could be useful by the ruling elite.

          “As to pushing vaccine on the rest of us, this is a knee jerk reaction to be seen to be ‘doing something’. It may well be a waste of time.”
          You may be inadvertently dismissing the damage caused by the vaccines, but more importantly, acknowledging that the information provided by TPTB is unassailable truth. (Note:This is not an attack, I tend to ‘read’ to much into your comments)

          Norm, I bid you and our fellow travelers good health.

        • Tim Groves says:

          Norman, perhaps you are thinking of Shakespeare in As You Like It?

          “The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool.”

          • Xabier says:

            I happily acknowledge that I am such a fool, I too have worn a useless and dangerous mask: it took me ages to click – mostly because I just shut off from it all from Spring until Autumn last year in an effort to stay cheerful.

            Then in November we went into full lock-down, with next to no hospital cases or deaths here, the wonder vaccines were announced, Bill and Melinda Gates got even creepier,and the smell of the dead rat of a Lie under the floorboards was too great to ignore any longer……

          • I wasn’t

            but it can be rephrased in any number of ways

      • Lt. Col. Wild Bill Kilgore says:

        Norman I find your comments refreshing in a sea of craziness. It seems as if everything we have been discussing over the years and its been quite a few for many of us is coming to a head. COVID may be the straw that finally brings it all front and center.

        Most of us are peak oilers (yes I agree on Gail’s take on affordability in conjunction with EROEI). Green energy whatever that may entail in my mind is applying a kleenex to a sucking chest wound. As the world approaches 8 billion met with climate change (there I said it), coupled with declining energy and food scarcity now we have a pandemic with questionable origins and intent. It’s not like our leaders have inspired confidence or good faith – just think about how the GFC was handled and who benefitted.

        As supply chains break due to worker shortages, lack of credit, lack of energy, climate change (choke on it FE), and with a fast moving virus who the hell knows what is happening or what is going to happen. The one common thread that holds us together here is that we know (it’s beyond belief) that we are entering the vortex that is going to bring it all down.

        I’m scared right along with you. I have a 9 year old son and a wife and a home and a job and a life, a pretty good one that is going to be taken away by design or by luck of our existence in time. It’s coming like a storm.

        Personally I think somebody is nuts if they aren’t taking this virus seriously. Granted the survival rate is high but the damage is unchallenged when combined with everything else.

        I’ve never been a fan of politicians of any stripe and Trump is a politician in the truest sense that plays on fears, ignorance, grift, and denial of realities. My hope was and let me emphasize “was” was that while our leadership is vile the people themselves on a whole are decent.

        The one thing I do agree with FE and others on is that when misery hits critical mass then it will be game on and it will be deadly and horrific the like the world has ever seen – terrifying.

        In a world like that its helpful not to judge and I know you’ve been judged, but good to understand the monster at your door.

        Good luck.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Hmmm… this is a name I have not seen before …

          Lt. Col. Wild Bill Kilgore

          • Mr. Clean says:

            Apocalypse Now

          • This is a different commenter who uses lots of different names to comment under.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Is he schizophrenic? Or just anxious to retain his anonymity?

              Anyway, Bill, everybody in charge apart from the dictator of Minsk seems to want us to be scared. Greta wants us to panic. Everyone from the Cadaver in the White House to the Midget of Holyrood to the Clown at Number Ten to the Single Source of Truth in the Antipodes wants us all to get jabbed. And I want to retire to Bedlam, but am unable to do so because it has shut down due to government cuts.

              So if you’re scared, you are being a good citizen. They’ve got you just where they want you.

              We are living in times that fry a man’s soul, that’s for sure. Here in Japan, expat friends of mine with children are finding that they can no longer afford to send them to international private schools and are having to get them educated at state schools, which they regard as inferior and unsuitable.

              I try to lighten their mood by employing as a greeting, the statement “We we were well off once!” But there is low-level anxiety in the air, mostly about their prospects for remaining in the middle class and keeping their income stream intact. A problem is, in the natural course of events our children should keep living after we’ve passed on, and it is pointless to worry about what’s going to happen to them then. And yet, given our view of the world, we can’t help but worry because that’s what parents do—or so I’m told.

        • thanks a lot Bill—I appreciate your words of support

          and like you, that’s the one thing Eddy and I do agree on, that come SHTF time, things are going to get nastier than we’ve ever known.

          It’s the means by which we get there that creates dispute.
          I don’t take that disputation seriously, the future might be 2 years away, or 2 more generations. (though I doubt that) Whatever—to survive we must have surplus cheap energy in order to create wages and commerce. 8bn people cannot exist without it. We have organised our existence on the basis of infinite surplus energy.

          Nothing more than that.

          Certainly covid has disrupted the ‘even flow’ by which our economic system functions in its present form. We have so finely tuned it, that it didn’t take much. The energy problem was already piling up.

          But denial is perhaps the ultimate problem.

          I throw in my two pennorth on the pages of OFW because, like it or not, it is a microcosm of the big wide world. (Everyone carries his/her certainties within themselves, and needs to convince others of it.)

          My personal take on it is that every living organism carries defence mechanism of some kind.
          (Though others have suggested that too)
          And intelligences exist of which we know nothing, with languages we cannot comprehend.

          If the planet itself is a self regulating intelligent organism, (which it would appear to be), then it senses us as something it must defend against, because we have become a potent threat to the living biosphere.

          This is why viruses appear , and mutate in response to our attempts to defeat them.

          We are staring at an immediate threefold crisis: Energy depletion, climate change and disease. Those three will multiply themselves into food/water crises, and that multiplication will result in conflicts of denial, and the secession of states (USA and elsewhere.)

          That tide of events is I think, already built into the system. Which is why I disregard much of the petty bickering over fine details. We are no different from any other family living beyond their means.

          • Norm, the planet doesn’t care whether there is a “living biosphere” or not. Most of the history of the planet, as we currently understand it, there wasn’t such a thing. While not necessarily a given (if one is not a determinist), it certainly was a gift.

            Natural pathogens may well appear, but I wouldn’t count our current situation among those occurrences.

            Instead, **homo homini lupus**.

            There’s no other explanation for the deranged mania

            to JAB INFANTS

            to JAB CHILDREN

            and to JAB ALL THE ZOO ANIMALS

            for chrissakes… because there’s nothing a mountain lion needs more than an injection of monkey kidney, fetal calf and/or fetal human cells, along with some computer-generated synthetic something-or-other sort-of designed to combat a human sort-of pathogen (?) that’s 0.15-0.2% deadly to those humans who actually contract the illness.

            The inexorable throb of entropy will destroy everything we hold dear in one manner or another.

            This global guided psychosis is purely a manifestation of that (as I see it).

        • Instead, I think a world in crisis is the best place to use whatever rudimentary judgment one has left. Surplus and leisure allow for muscles, including judgment muscles, to grow flabby.

          • Pete J. says:

            lidia, I doubt that our accelerating demise will motivate the land-whale population to think any more powerfully than they do in shedding their excess weight. It will be nice to see the fatties trying to outrun the killer hordes, however.

        • Artleads says:

          Norman is usually a model of patience when it comes to tackling such issues. I hope he will indulge me. I was scribbling these notes before coming across this post:

          WHAT IS THE WORST THING? It depends what day it is. But fairly consistently, it’s the belief that green energy will save us. That entrenched belief enable a culture (if you can call it that) of misdirection.

          I can spit out a few broken notes to try and make my case, but maybe what is needed are volumes of scholarly writing (very far beyond my capacity).

          Slavery is endemic in civilization. We’ve had two hundred years of theoretical reprieve from slavery due to the concurrent deployment of fossil fuels.

          Fossil fuel civilization took off in Britain, rendering it an exceptional global power.

          URGENTLY NEEDED:a baby-steps explanation re the interrelationship of fossil fuels and capitalism.

          British colonialism based on slavery might have had its heyday in the 18th century, starting to wane with the deployment of coal.

          The end of the slave trade coincided with huge advancements in industrial civilization–the 19th century.

          The 19th century era of coal-based industrial expansion came to a marked end by WWI.

          Oil was being widely discovered and deployed around the time of WWI, and that led to a different, more troubled but extravagant era of fossil fuel civilization. That came to an end in 1929.

          A subsequent era of socialistic centralization might have propped up civilization pending another energy crunch (Why exactly?) leading to WWII.

          How and why did fossil fuel use then escalate expanding into our time?

          Fossil fuels now are too hard to source given what can be paid for their use.

          How and why did the notion of green energy rear its head?

          The 19th century was the golden age of populism?

          Succeeded around 1914 by the age of corporatism?

          OK, so this is garbled nonsense, but there’s something about the 19th century that is useful, hidden, and should be brought to light. It’s either that or death through green energy.

          • URGENTLY NEEDED:a baby-steps explanation re the interrelationship of fossil fuels and capitalism.

            Capitalism started when someone had the bright idea of building a wall round a patch of land, and growing his food instead of chasing it. around 8k years ago.
            That’s all ‘capital’ is. Ultimately it is access to energy in quantity.

            Other people had the same idea, and pretty soon parcels of land began to butt up against each other
            Fathers begat competitive sons.That led to conflict.
            Some were smarter/stronger than others, so in no time kings appeared, taking land by force of arms. (Taking massive shortcuts through history here)

            Empires then ebbed and flowed over 000s of years. But ‘Energy capital’ was limited to muscle power alone. (Man and beast)
            Kings ‘owned’ nations in the literal sense. But what actually supported them was the energy output of their respective nations.
            (Which is why the Saudis rode camels until very recently. They had no way of accessing the capital in their ‘energy store’) Now they think they are the world’s biggest capitalists.

            Then someone took the next big leap and lit a fire under a steam engine.

            The power of steam enabled the deep mining of coal, and the deep drilling of oil/gas wells. Oil is much more energy-dense than coal.

            As I pointed out earlier, some people are born smarter than others. (life is like that) Rockefeller was one such. in the 1860s, the USA was awash with oil that there was little use for. Rockefeller was smart enough to grab all the oil concessions and build a pipeline to deliver it to Chicago so that people could buy his oil and use it to cook and keep warm.
            The energy in his fossil fuel made him a multi millionaire capitalist before the car was invented.

            Rockefeller became top capitalist because he controlled access to oil. ‘Access to energy in quantity’ Just like an ancient warlord.

            Broadly speaking, oil-energy input into our economic system grew at an average rate of 7% pa. This meant a doubling of industrial output every 10 years or so. Human nature being what it is, we assumed that growth was forever.

            depressions didn’t slow that growth at all. Wars increased it

            Oil-capitalists pumped as much as they could, as fast as possible to grow their ‘capital’.

            What they were in fact doing was turning the planet’s (finite) energy store into cash assets.

            Because the planet’s energy is limited, that process shifted energy/capital into the hands of a very few, leaving hundreds of millions on the edge of starvation.
            Even in the USA, 40m people are on food aid. Why?, because energy-capital is unevenly distributed.

            And they starve while they scream ‘no socialism’.

            I’ve discreetly wandered round both sides of the tracks in Detroit. That confirmed my observations.

            ‘green energy’ projects are, in effect, an attempt to convert ‘cash assets’ back into energy. It can’t be done.

            This is the best source, if you access it, really superb stuff.:
            https://www.amazon.co.uk/Men-Who-Built-America-Season/dp/B00G97J8TC?gclsrc=aw.ds&ref=dvm_uk_sl_tit_mkw_s-dc_pcrid_475561600948&mrntrk=slid__pgrid_110109224137_pgeo_1007151_x_143912284861_ptid_dsa-992553348408&gclid=Cj0KCQjw0emHBhC1ARIsAL1QGNfusyHMebVDVR7OUBSUwBQq5v97uF1KQWuL-VPwv-4ypjBFK4fdiK0aAnkbEALw_wcB

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              We do not really know about early Neolithic economies as they predate recorded history by thousands of years, but it seems unlikely that they were organised on productive relations of wage labour (capitalism). The archaic and classical economies that we know a bit about were based on slave labour, and more recent economies were based on feudal ties, and also not wage labour. Capitalism is much more recent than that. Also, the archaeological record does not seem to be support that ‘walls’ were used to delimit farm land in the Neolithic.

            • I tried to make the point that capitalism is control of capital—in this case to essential source of energy–food

              wages are incidental to that

              The Egyptians paid for labour in grain and beer

              as long as there was sufficient surplus they could build pyramids

              A king controlled lots of grain and beer–hence big pyramids
              Much of the Egyptian economic system was dedicated to the cult of death–if you were rich enough you could emply 20k men for 20 years to build your tomb and fill it with goods—which was then robbed.

              The ordinary Joe had to be content with a hole in the ground.

              Bezos has lots of grain and beer to spread around, so he gets a big space rocket

              the economics are exactly the same.

              both pointless except for ego building

            • Artleads says:

              Thank you, Norman. Very kind of you.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              I get it, you are using the word ‘capitalism’ in your own sense, to make your own point, which is not illegal. The word came into wide use after Marx published Das Kapital (1867) and it is conventionally used in the sense of the modern, predominantly money wage based economy that is distinct from earlier economies.

              ‘Capital’ itself is used in the sense of modern capitalist organisation: ‘wealth in the form of money or other assets owned by a person or organization or available for a purpose such as starting a company or investing.’ It is not used as synonymous with resources and their use in all eras.

              Earlier economies obviously had their own conventions for product distribution (if just providing food for slaves, or allowing serfs to use land in return for a cut) but they are not conventionally considered to be ‘capitalist’ (money for wages and investment).

              It is probably worth being aware of the conventional use – not that you ‘have’ to be bound by it. I am not trying to be ‘picky’. If your point is that capitalism is, like other economies, not possible without energy and other resources then that is a fair point, and there is no need to use ‘capitalism’ in an unconventional way to make that point.

            • Artleads says:

              Mirror, yes, I’m still thinking of a recent manifestation of what could be called capitalism, and that somehow ties us into fossil fuels and industrialism. Slavery apparently gave us the modern financial system. The end of modern slavery ties us to coal-based industrial civilization, succeeded by an oil based one (mostly). I have trouble being very clear as to how these issues relate, but where I’m trying to “work” is where this modern combo of slavery, industrialism, coal and oil, and green energy all come together sharply and precisely. They comprise a “cluster” that’s being fought over and misunderstood at this very moment. What precedes this cluster isn’t quite the same thing.

            • capital, as I see it, is the physical ownership of something of value which can be rendered into cash if the owner chooses to do so.

              I could sell my house (capital) for cash, but if I had mortgaged my house, I couldn’t because someone else would have first call on my ‘capital’.

              Trying to ‘date’ the term capital (as a word) is irrelevant because the concept of ‘property’ goes back 000s of years. It will have had many names over that time. The meaning will not have changed. The fact that Marx called it ‘Kapital’ in the 1800s didn’t change what it was and always had been

              I think fossil fuels gave us the modern financial system, because it became possible to finance the sinking of a mine or well on the future promise of energy return. A coal or oil producing region took on a ‘value’ based on likely returns.
              The return on the last well financed the next one

              But certainly the same economic principle could be applied to a slave ship.

              It could only work on a basis of forward running economics, which had to constantly grow.
              And that is the wall we are running into. We cannot ‘grow’ because not enough investment is in the system to allow that.

              There isn’t enough ‘future’ investment now, because recent ‘past’ investments do not deliver sufficient surplus.

              This is why shale wells are becoming unprofitable.. Shale wells deliver at best only about 8:1 return. (that might be optimistic) That is simply not enough ‘surplus’ to make it worthwhile drilling the next well.
              Bear in mind that oil wells used to deliver 100:1

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              The Walls of Ceide Fields in Ireland date back to the Neolithic:

              “The large size of the plots and surrounding stone walls suggest that they were primarily used for livestock farming… There is evidence that grain was grown in some of these fields, too, often using cow manure as a fertilizer.”

              https://brewminate.com/the-walls-of-ceide-fields-stone-age-agriculture-in-ireland/

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Interesting. It seems that the stone partitioning of individual fields there may have been associated with the rise of animal farming – to keep the animals in – rather than with the initial rise of crop agriculture in the Near East (10000 BC).

              3500 BC would place Ceide Fields well before the Irish Bronze Age (2500 BC) and the arrival of the descendants of Steppe pastoralists, so it may well have been a local development by the recently arrived farmers (4000 BC.)

              By all means, do post if you find out anything else about that question.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              I will indeed… There doesn’t seem to be much in the archaeological record re stone-age farmland partitions – perhaps because it is the cities, tombs, temples and battle-fields that are deemed more worthy of excavation than simple farmland.

              But it seems to me a fairly common sense proposition that as soon as the concept of ownership had arisen, farmers would want to clearly demarcate the boundaries of the land for which they were taking responsibility and from which they were hoping to reap a profit – to prevent misunderstandings, honest or otherwise.

              In some places stone would be the obvious material for that; in other places I’m sure wooden fences served the same function.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              It is conventional to use ‘capital’ (assets) in a wider sense than just ‘capitalism’, that is fine. A hunter-gatherer’s arrowhead is thus ‘capital’.

              ‘Capitalism’ is a particular mode of economic activity with its own characteristics, so that word is used conventionally only for that mode – not for all uses of ‘capital’ in the wider sense, like hunter-gathering, classical slavery or feudalism.

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalism#Characteristics

              > In general, capitalism as an economic system and mode of production can be summarised by the following:[89]

              Capital accumulation:[90] production for profit and accumulation as the implicit purpose of all or most of production, constriction or elimination of production formerly carried out on a common social or private household basis.[91]
              Commodity production: production for exchange on a market; to maximize exchange-value instead of use-value.
              Private ownership of the means of production:[9]
              High levels of wage labour.[92]
              The investment of money to make a profit.[93]
              The use of the price mechanism to allocate resources between competing uses.[9]
              Economically efficient use of the factors of production and raw materials due to maximization of value added in the production process.[94][95]
              Freedom of capitalists to act in their self-interest in managing their business and investments.[96]

            • I accept your summary as a good one,

              but that list still be covered by the umbrella of ‘access to and control of energy resources’?

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              For sure, the energy point is well made.

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            I really do not know about that. We do not know much about Neolithic economies, their mode of ownership, employment or what demarcations may have been necessary, so there may be a danger of extrapolating assumptions from modern conventions.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              You may be right. Human nature is probably more of a constant though. Google tells me that in Shetland and The Orkney’s Neolithic farmland was demarcated with simple stone boundaries and, interestingly, the Cornish kept their livestock in with hedges:

              “Cornish hedges are older than the Pyramids, older than Stonehenge, and the oldest manmade artefact known to be still in use for their original purpose”

              http://www.cornishhedges.co.uk/PDF/prehistoric.pdf

            • I saw hedges marking fields in India, I remember.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Yes, hedges for animals makes sense.

              Was any date given for the Shetland and Orkney demarcations? Obviously the British Neolithic is much later (6000 years) than the initial, anyway.

              There is some amazing prehistoric archaeology on Shetland, I must get up there sometime.

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prehistoric_Shetland

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              It’s not clear to me precisely when they are dating them or even if they have – it’s in the Neolithic section of this:

              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_prehistoric_Scotland

            • Artleads says:

              “…not for all uses of ‘capital’ in the wider sense, like hunter-gathering, classical slavery or feudalism.”

              Mirror, I don’t understand why you draw a line under these, then start something new (capitalism) after the line. Maybe it’s important to keep capitalism in it’s own little box–like demarking the time before the automobile and the time after it.

              If we’re dealing with the present, these earlier forms of organization still are fresh in some people’s minds, determining how they think and behave now. How they think and behave now must influence capitalism. I know that ideas around slavery do.

              People whose ancestors were enslaved or subjected to something like feudalism post-slavery are very anxious to remove traces of this perceived earlier humiliation and injustice. This overrides appeals for cultural continuity, and pushes demand for the new to wipe away the old. This greatly influences today’s building industry, or what commodities people buy, for example…

              But if you go back before the trans Atlantic slave trade, collective memory fades–dramatically, I would think. There were assorted languages and cultures that slavery had subjected to a melting pot, so that identities were altered. If I’m on the right track with this, it would seem more logical to draw that line prior to western colonialism. The first voyage of Columbus could be where you start “capitalism” in the modern sense I think we’re both alluding to.

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            * I should have said ‘labour organisation’ rather than ’employment’ as the latter smacks of later conventions. Nothing can be assumed in archaeology but what is demonstrated and AFAIK nothing much is really known about the social side of Neolithic economies.

            • early farming burial sites show something like 1 in 5 skeletons with signs of physical impact trauma, obviously attacks by other tribes.

              around here there are major fortifications on most of the major hilltops. The labour input must have been colossal, but it was obviously critical to survival to invest that much effort 3000 years ago

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Interesting. You are likely talking about ‘hillforts’ (not all on hills). They seem to have originated in the late Bronze Age and early Iron Age (1000 BC). The middle Bronze Age settlement format seems to have been groups of round houses set within enclosures. Obviously even a hut is an enclosed space, but the use of ‘walls’ or fences around fields in the early Neolithic is another matter. I am not aware of any archaeological evidence on that point.

      • this is the kind of original thinking that will save humankind

        (https://twitter.com/vmsalama/status/1414981208098975745?s=03)

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Yes norm can write a manual for a Rayburn ….

        But this is the Big Leagues… where circus tricks are smirked at…

      • JMS says:

        Intellectually serious people, when confronted with evidence that contradicts what they believe, are capable of changing their minds, or at least questioning their former convictions.
        I’ve been reading OFW since 2013, and I don’t remember ever seeing Norman change his mind about anything, unlike what I’ve seen occur with serious inquiring spirits like Xabier or FE.
        What Norman knew in 2013 is exactly what he knows now. Zero progress, zero willingness to learn new things. Enough said.

        • DB says:

          Thank you, JMS. I agree with you entirely that the only measure of whether we doubt ourselves is whether we have changed our minds, especially in response to evidence and argument from others. Gail and commenters here have helped me change my mind on many topics, I am grateful to say.

      • Yesterday’s conspiracies seem to be today’s headlines.

        Could Russell Brand be one of Fast Eddy’s relatives, a cousin perhaps…?

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXnHT1aRD7k
        (12 min.)

        “I’m trying to tell you! Why is it me being dragged off to the lunatic asylum? *I* could be at Sun Valley! I could go on the golf cart, couldn’t I? I could join in with Twitter man and Facebook lady.. please..! pleeheeheese…!”

  39. I expressed the only way to solve the problem in Northern Ireland and a couple people got upset.

    I have no bones in that region, other than being aware that as long as the Unionists are there it will always be a mess, and only a solution used by de Gaulle in Algeria, abandoning the pied noir to their fate in Algeria, would solve it.

    Planetary management is no easy stuff and it is not possible to make everyone happy. It is hard for the Unionists to avoid the fate of the Tamils in Ceylon, whose cause was doomed when people in Tamil Nadu finally had enough of them.

    They will fight, but after a while, they will lose.

    Which actually is the fate of minorities around the world.

    BAU enabled some of them to become strong enough to be relevant. For example, USA propped the Montagnards, also called the Hmongs, during the Vietnam War. They were a people living in deep jungle and still live like those in the neolithic age, although they like guns a lot. Not surprisingly, after the fall of Saigon the Hmongs were hunted down like hell, and some of them came to USA and did the same thing they did back in the jungle, like growing pot wherever they could, having many children (mostly under government aid, since most Hmongs don’t value education too much and are unemployable) and getting into trouble against the law whenever they could. There was a fire in California recently, burning a lot of Hmong pot farms, and they obviously did what they did for centuries; getting hostile to the CA police and fire department.

    Whether that is morally right or not, I won’t argue about that. But, realpolitik will come before human decency and other nicer stuff which will disappear with BAU.

    • Erdles says:

      Northern Island is a classic Schrodinger’s cats case. You can be Irish and at the same time British whilst you can have both borders and no borders. The ‘cat’s’ box lid is currently closed and neither the British government, Irish government or the EU commission wish to open the lid to find out the true state.

    • Malcopian says:

      The UK and Ireland should get together and offer Northern Ireland ‘dwindling repartition’.

      I’ll explain. Click on this politico-demographic map of N. Ireland and scroll down to the year 2019:

      https://images.jifo.co/14978916_1618315448042.png

      I would say to the Northern Irish, those of you who voted nationalist and whose areas are contiguous with the Republic may, if you so wish, be absorbed into the Republic. That would leave a rump Northern Ireland, whose majority Protestants would still be part of the UK. That would appease those remaining Unionists and hopefully pre-empt any violence.

      Over time, we would expect that more of the ‘orange’ areas would become ‘green’ and vote to join the Republic. Hardline Unionist Protestants would be allowed to jump ship and move to England, Scotland, or wherever, if they so wished. Eventually, Protestant fear of the Republics would dwindle, and by 2060 all would have gone over to the Republic, wondering what one earth all the fuss had been about anyway.

      • Erdles says:

        What happens to the Unionists who are within the boundaries of areas absorbed into the Republic?

        • They can consult the fate of the Pied Noir

        • Bei Dawei says:

          They’ll have to wear green, or else everybody is allowed to pinch them.

        • Malcopian says:

          “What happens to the Unionists who are within the boundaries of areas absorbed into the Republic?”

          They will continue to live there, because they would be within the Republic by majority vote. If they don’t want to, they can relocate to rump NI or else move to mainland UK. They will still have options, you see.

          • Tim Groves says:

            I have a much better idea. Form the Federal United Republic of the Archipelago Britannic (FUBAR). Nobody really wants Charles as King, so there’s never been a better time to send the Windsors into retirement as happened with the Houses of Hohenzollern, Habsburg and others.

            The national capital of FUBAR would be Douglas, Isle of Man. The federation would be made up of four states in Ireland, three in Scotland two in Wales and about 30 in England, plus the Northern Isles (Orkney, Shetland and Fair Isle), IOM, Gibraltar and the Falklands—got to upset the Spanish and the Argentinians.

            It would be such a mess that politics would be fun again as everybody argued with everybody else about just which bits should qualify as states and which shouldn’t.

      • Judging from the behavior of some people involved in this, they will fight to death.

        • Xabier says:

          As W B Yeats observed, the history of Ireland, its hatreds and massacres, can produce shrunken souls permeated with violence and fanaticism. I’ve seen that in Spain, too, a legacy of the Civil War.

          In reality, both sides should be turning against the career politicians and health bureaucrats imposing the new Totalitarianism.

          The lock-downs in the Republic of Ireland have been terrible, the courage of 1916 must be revived.

  40. Yoshua says:

    The efficiency of the Pfizer vaccine is zero.

    It gets better.

    If you have natural immunity against Covid after recovering from Covid and take the mRNA vaccine, then your natural antibodies will be wiped out.

    https://www.ksla.com/2021/01/24/coronavirus-vaccine-could-affect-how-you-donate-plasma/

    • This article would seem to indicate that giving the vaccine to those who have already had COVID is worse than useless:

      “If you are a recipient of Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, that pretty much makes you ineligible to donate any future convalescent plasma to any people that are struggling with COVID-19 right now,” said Michael Pena with Blood Share in Baton Rouge.

      “When you get the vaccine it wipes out the antibodies that your body has developed when that person had covid-19 before, so it helps you but if you intend to try to help other people by donating your plasma then it negates it,” Pena said.

    • As the number of un”vaxxed” shrinks, will they be farmed as a biological reservoir for the “vaxxed”?