COVID-19 Vaccines Don’t Really Work as Hoped

Last week, the CDC announced a surprising finding: “Delta infection resulted in similarly high SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated people.” Public officials had known from the early days of vaccine development that vaccinated people could catch COVID-19, but the assumption had been made that they were not going to be spreaders of COVID-19.

It turns out that the delta variant is sufficiently different from the original Wuhan version of the virus that the vaccines work much less well. The CDC performed an analysis of COVID-19 cases arising from one public gathering in Massachusetts. They found that the gathering led to 469 COVID-19 Delta cases among Massachusetts residents, with 74% of these cases in fully vaccinated attendees. Massachusetts is a highly vaccinated state, with approximately 64% of the population fully vaccinated.

There are other issues coming up as well. How long does the vaccine really last? Is the vaccine itself part of the reason that the virus is mutating as rapidly as it is? Are we making problems for ourselves by creating an army of people with very light cases of COVID-19 who can spread the virus to both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated without realizing that they have more than a cold? Aren’t we inadvertently killing off the least able of the virus mutations and allowing the most virulent to multiply?

My training is as an actuary, so I am familiar with modeling. I am also a “systems thinker.” I know that it is important to look at longer term impacts as well as short-term impacts. If a person works in the healthcare field, it is easy to consider only the obvious short-term benefits. It takes some analysis to figure out that today’s vaccines may lead to stronger variants (such as Delta) and more overall spread of COVID-19.

In this post, I will explain some of the issues involved.

[1] Today’s vaccines provide only a fraction of the true level of protection required. Their actions are in many ways similar to applying weed killer at half the strength needed to kill the weeds or providing antibiotics at half the dose required to stop the spread of bacteria.

All of our lives, we have been told, “Be sure to complete the full course of the antibiotics. It is necessary to kill all of the bacteria. Otherwise, it will be easier for a few of the stronger bacteria not to be affected. If you stop too early, the bacteria that are least affected by the antibiotic will survive and reproduce, while the others will die. Stopping the drug too soon is a great way to achieve antibiotic resistance, quickly.”

Unfortunately, COVID-19 vaccine makers seem to have overlooked this issue. The respected BMJ published an editorial entitled, Will covid-19 vaccines save lives? Current trials aren’t designed to tell us. It makes the point:

Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, said, “Ideally, you want an antiviral vaccine to do two things . . . first, reduce the likelihood you will get severely ill and go to the hospital, and two, prevent infection and therefore interrupt disease transmission.”

Yet the current phase III trials are not actually set up to prove either.

We were told that the new COVID-19 vaccines are “95% effective in preventing symptomatic disease,” but it turns out that this is far less adequate than what most people would assume. The vaccine is “leaky.” A big issue is that the virus mutates, and the vaccine works much less well against the mutations. The world can never reach herd immunity if immunized people keep catching new variants of COVID-19 and keep passing them on, as the evidence now suggests.

[2] In a way, getting sick from a virus is helpful. It tells us to stay at home, away from others. It is the fact that humans experience symptoms from viruses that tends to limit their spread.

If a virus has severe symptoms, those infected with the virus will not feel well enough to continue their usual activities. They will tend to stay at home.

If the symptoms are mild, as is the case with the common cold, people will likely go about their activities as usual. This is especially the case if people need to work to feed their families. Thus, viruses with mild symptoms often spread easily.

But, if citizens feel that they are protected by a vaccine, they will likely continue to go about their activities as usual. Most of them will not realize that they might be spreaders of Delta, and perhaps other new COVID-19 variants. Symptoms are likely to be mild or non-existent.

[3] It is becoming clear that people immunized with today’s vaccines can both catch the delta variant and spread it to others.

As I mentioned above, the CDC concluded from looking at its analysis of 469 delta cases that the infection resulted in similarly high SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.

We have independent corroboration of the ability of vaccinated individuals to spread delta COVID-19 in a new analysis from Singapore. This article reports, “PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were similar between both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis.” This is precisely the information that the CDC was relying on in Massachusetts when they reported that there were similarly high SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated people. While this analysis has not yet been peer reviewed, it reaches precisely the same conclusion with respect to early viral load as the Massachusetts analysis.

The data from this same Singapore study indicates that there are about 3 times as many asymptomatic cases in the vaccinated (28.2%) as the unvaccinated (9.2%). The median number of symptoms reported by the vaccinated was 1, compared to 2 in the unvaccinated. Among the vaccinated, the most frequent symptoms were fever (40.9%), runny nose (38%) and cough (38%). One of these symptoms, especially if it occurred only briefly, could easily be overlooked as a sign of COVID-19.

[4] With nearly all of the current vaccines, the immune system is trained to look for the spike protein from the original Wuhan virus. This narrow focus makes it relatively easy for the virus to mutate in ways that outsmart the vaccine.

A “History of Vaccines” website indicates that there are several ways vaccines are being made, including weakened (“attenuated”) viruses, killed viruses, and segments of the pathogen. In the new COVID-19 vaccines, a particularly limited part of the virus is used, the spike protein. In fact, in the newer vaccines, only an mRNA code is injected, and the body is instructed to make the spike protein itself.

Using a very narrow target has made it easier for viruses to evade the effects of the vaccine. Delta is one variant of the original virus from Wuhan that is evading vaccines through its mutations. Another such variant is Lambda, which caused serious problems in Chile in the spring of 2021, despite vaccine usage as high as 60%. The virus underlying all of these variants is called SARS-CoV-2, reflecting the fact that this virus is closely related to the virus which caused the 2003 SARS epidemic.

Since vaccination began about December 15, 2020, we have so far encountered two variants that are poorly controlled by vaccines. This is not a promising sign for the long-term success of COVID-19 vaccines. As more time goes on, we can expect more such variants. These variants do not necessarily stay around for more than a few months, making it difficult to create and distribute new specially targeted vaccines.

[5] Given the likelihood of mutations away from the narrow target, it seems strange that the governments have set very high expectations for the new vaccines.

It seems to me that Pfizer and Moderna should have said, “We are producing new vaccines that will somewhat lessen symptoms. In a way, they will be like the annual influenza vaccines that various companies make each year. We will need to update the vaccines regularly, but we will likely miss. Hopefully, our guess regarding what will work will be ‘close enough,’ so the vaccine will provide some partial benefit for the upcoming variations.”

Such a statement would have provided a more realistic set of expectations, compared to what many people have been assuming. No one would expect that herd immunity would ever be reached. The vaccines would be perceived as fairly weak tools that need to be used alongside medications, if they are to be used at all.

[6] Leaky vaccines, if widely used, can encourage the virus to mutate toward more virulent (severe) forms. Ultimately, the problem becomes viruses that mutate to more virulent forms faster than the vaccine system can keep up.

If, as we are seeing today, vaccinated people can catch the variant and pass it on to both vaccinated and unvaccinated people, this extra boost can help the variant tremendously in its ability to spread. This extra boost is especially helpful for the variants that are very virulent, since in the normal situation, people who catch a virulent variant would recognize that they are sick and stay at home.

There would normally be a limit on how much the variant could spread based on its impact on the unvaccinated. This limit goes away if both the vaccinated and unvaccinated can catch and spread the illness. Without a vaccine, the variants might be either more or less virulent, with the more virulent tending to die out because the people who get them either die or stay at home because they are very ill. I would expect that this is the reason why quite a few viruses tend to become less severe (virulent) over time, when leaky vaccines are not available to artificially boost their virulence.

The article, Vaccines are Pushing Pathogens to Evolve, gives the example of how the vaccines for Marek’s disease in chickens have been failing, as the disease gradually evolves to become more virulent under pressure from the vaccines being used to keep this illness away. The first vaccine was introduced in 1970. A decade later, outbreaks of Marek’s disease began to be found in vaccinated flocks. A second vaccine was licensed in 1983, but it too began to fail. When the article was written in 2018 the industry was on its third vaccine, but it too was beginning to fail, as the disease became more deadly. But there was no new vaccine yet available.

A 2015 article in PLOS Biology is entitled, Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens. A person would think everyone involved in vaccine technology would be very much aware of this issue.

The chase after new vaccines is precisely the problem we can expect to have with the vaccines for COVID-19. Only, our problem with the vaccine not really working correctly is coming after a few months, not 10 years. Trying to keep up with new vaccines for a virus that evolves away from us, this quickly, is likely to be an impossible task. It is not just the unvaccinated who have a problem; it is everyone, as the vaccines quickly lose their effectiveness.

[7] Another potential problem with COVID-19 vaccines is Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE). When this occurs, it worsens later infections by different variants.

ADE is a rather strange condition in which the antibodies against one variant gained from a first infection (or immunization) act to make some later infections by a different variant worse, rather than better. Dengue Fever is an example of an illness for which this is an issue.

Dr. Robert Malone thinks that ADE may be happening now for COVID-19. He sees the high virus levels in immunized individuals as evidence of possible ADE.

The large number of immunized patients in the hospital with COVID-19 in Israel (which has mostly Delta cases) is also given as possible evidence:

Figure 1. Image from Israel’s official COVID-19 website, showing new hospitalizations and new severe patients separately for fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated, and unvaccinated individuals.

The illness SARS is closely related to COVID-19. There is evidence that vaccinations against SARS tend to produce ADE. In fact, the National Institute of Health provided funding for a 2020 academic paper that reaches the following conclusion:

The specific and significant COVID-19 risk of ADE should have been and should be prominently and independently disclosed to research subjects currently in vaccine trials, as well as those being recruited for trials and future patients after vaccine approval, in order to meet the medical ethics standards for informed consent.

[8] Another problem with the current vaccines against COVID-19 is that immunity may not last very long.

The virus that causes COVID-19 is a coronavirus. The common cold is another illness caused by a coronavirus. We know the immunity of the common cold doesn’t last very long, perhaps a year. While we don’t have long-term experience with COVID-19 vaccine immunity, we shouldn’t be surprised if its immunity begins to wane within a few months, or in a year or two.

Israel, after analyzing its recent COVID-19 experience (almost all with the Delta variant), is now offering anyone over 60 who was vaccinated more than 5 months ago a booster shot. Third doses are also being given to those with weakened immune systems.

It should be noted that if immunity doesn’t last very long, any strategy of “flattening the curve” by stretching out COVID-19 cases becomes counterproductive because it runs the risk of moving the timeframe of the next cycle beyond the time when natural (and vaccine-induced) immunity is still operative.

[9] The public has been led to believe that vaccines are the only solution to COVID-19 when, in fact, they are at best a very poor and temporary band-aid.

Vaccines are a tempting solution because the benefits have been oversold and no one has explained how poorly today’s leaky vaccines really work.

We are already past the period when these vaccines were well matched with the viruses they were aimed at. Now we are in a situation in which the viruses are constantly mutating, and the vaccines need to be updated. The catch is that the variants stick around for such a short time period that by the time the vaccine is updated, there is likely to be yet another new variant that the new vaccine does not really match up with well.

Requirements that employees be vaccinated against COVID-19 cannot be expected to provide much benefit to employers because workers will still be out sick with COVID-19. This happens because they are likely to catch a variant such as Delta, which does not line up with the original vaccine. Perhaps they will be out for a shorter period, and their hospital bills will be lower. These types of benefits are what people have expected of influenza vaccines. There is no reason for them to expect more of the new COVID-19 vaccines.

Even with 100% vaccination herd immunity can never be reached because the vaccine encourages the virus to mutate into more virulent forms. Each new variant stays around for only a few months, making it hard for vaccine makers to keep up with the changing nature of the problem. Vaccine makers can expect to face a constant battle in having to run to stay even. Someone will have to convince citizens that each new vaccine makes sense, even though injuries reported to the US Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System seem to be much more frequent than those reported for vaccines for other diseases.

An erroneous, one-sided story is being told to the general public, in part because the pharmaceutical lobby is incredibly powerful. It has the support of influential people, such as Anthony Fauci and Bill Gates. The pharmaceutical industry can make billions of dollars in income from the sale of vaccines, with little in the way of sales expenses. The industry has managed to convince people that it is OK to sell these vaccines, even though injury rates are very high compared to those for vaccines in general.

Vaccines are being pushed in large part because the pharmaceutical industry needs a money maker. It also wants to be seen as having cutting-edge technology, so young people will be attracted to the field. It cannot admit to anyone that technologies from decades ago would perhaps work better to solve the COVID-19 problem.

[10] The pharmaceutical industry has been telling the world that inexpensive drugs can’t fix our problem. However, there are several low-cost drugs that appear helpful.

One drug that is being overlooked is ivermectin, which was discovered in the late 1970s. It was originally introduced as a veterinary drug to cure parasitic infections in animals. In the U. S., ivermectin has been used since 1987 for eliminating parasites such as ringworm in humans. Ivermectin seems to cure COVID-19 in humans, but it needs a higher dosage than has been previously approved. Also, it would not be a money maker for the pharmaceutical industry.

The possible use of ivermectin to cure COVID-19 seems to have been intentionally hidden. At approximately 32:45 in this linked video, Dr. David Martin explains how Moderna announced ivermectin’s utility in treating SARS (which is closely related to SARS-CoV-2) in its 2016-2018 patent modification related to the SARS virus. It sounds as though Moderna (and others) have participated both in developing harmful viruses and in developing vaccines to cure very closely related viruses. They then work to prevent the sale of cheap drugs that might reduce their sales of vaccines. This seems unconscionable.

Vitamin D, in high enough doses, taken well before exposure to the virus that causes COVID-19, seems to lead to reduced severity of the disease, and may eliminate some cases completely.

Various steroid drugs are often used in the later stages of COVID-19, when conditions warrant it. The medical community seems to have no difficulty with these.

Monoclonal antibodies are also used in the treatment of COVID-19, but they are much more expensive.

[11] Conclusion. Governments, businesses, and citizens need to understand that today’s vaccines are not really solutions to our COVID-19 problem. At the same time, they need better solutions.

Current vaccines have been badly oversold. They can be expected to make the mutation problem worse, and they don’t stop the spread of variants. Instead, we need to start quickly to make ivermectin and other inexpensive drugs available through healthcare systems. People do need some sort of solution to the problem of COVID-19 illnesses; it just turns out that the current vaccines work so poorly that they probably should not be part of the solution.

The whole idea of vaccine passports is absurd. Even with the vaccine, people will catch the new COVID-19 variants, and they will pass them on to others. Perhaps they may get lighter symptoms, so that they will be off work for a shorter length of time, but there still will be disruption. If those who catch COVID-19 can instead take ivermectin at a high enough dose at the first sign of illness, many (or most) of them can get well in a few days and avoid hospitalization completely. Other medications may be helpful as well.

I am skeptical that masks can do any good with the high level of transmission of Delta. But at least masks aren’t very harmful. We probably need to go along with what is requested by officials.

It is becoming clear that today’s pharmaceutical industry is far too powerful. Investigations need to be made into the large number of allegations against it and its leaders. Why did members of the pharmaceutical industry find it necessary to patent viruses, and then later sell vaccines for a virus closely related to the viruses it had patented?

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,978 Responses to COVID-19 Vaccines Don’t Really Work as Hoped

  1. Tim Groves says:

    Rolling Stones drummer Charlie Watts dies of xxxxx after several months of illness. He looked like a stroke victim in his final photos. Was he jabbed? What are the odds?

    And no, he wasn’t that old. He was five years younger than Norman.

  2. Tim Groves says:

    3,900 comments! Is this a record? And does this mean the end is near?

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    OMG – 1000!!!

    Auckland’s lockdown was extended to August 31 and will not be reviewed until Monday, but the rest of New Zealand will be reviewed on Friday.
    However, there are now more than 15,000 people considered to be contacts and the test results for about half of the 369 people considered to be at the highest risk were yet to be returned as of yesterday.

    Experts are expecting cases to continue to rise, with modelling now suggesting they could hit 1000.

    What would 1000 look like? Click Deaths Tab:

    We need to accelerate the injections so we can chase Israel 🙂

    Hey Mike the PLUG — you must be pleased that Donkey Face is keeping you safe….

  4. nikoB says:

    A new paper just out suggests that booster shots may cause ADE. More study is required.

    A third round of booster immunization with the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is currently under
    consideration. Our data suggest that repeated immunization with the wild-type spike may not be
    effective in controlling the newly emerging Delta variants. We demonstrated that immunization by
    Delta spike induces antibodies that neutralize not only the Delta variant but also wild-type and the
    Delta 4+ variant without enhancing the infectivity. Although mRNA vaccination may yield
    different results from our animal model, development of mRNA vaccine expressing the Delta spike
    might be effective for controlling the emerging Delta variant. However, epitopes of the enhancing
    antibodies, not neutralizing antibodies, are well conserved in most SARS-CoV-2 variants,
    including the Delta variant. Therefore, additional immunization of the spike protein derived from
    SARS-CoV-2 variants may boost enhancing antibodies more than the neutralizing antibodies in
    individuals who were previously infected with wild-type SARS-CoV-2 or immunized with
    vaccines composed of wild-type spike protein. Immunization using the RBD alone, which will not
    induce anti-NTD enhancing antibodies, could be a strategy for a vaccination. However, anti-NTD
    neutralizing antibodies that protect against SARS-CoV-2 infection similar to anti-RBD-
    neutralizing antibodies are not induced by immunization by RBD alone (Chi et al., 2020; Li et al.,
    2021 ; Liu et al., 2020; Suryadevara et al., 2021; Voss et al., 2021). Whole spike protein containing
    RBD mutations observed in major variants but lacking the enhancing antibody epitopes may need
    to be considered as a booster vaccine.

  5. Rodster says:

    Pro Vax Mom weeps because her healthy 12 yr old daughter took two jabs and is now wheelchair bound. Umm, the Mom should have done her research and read about all the injuries and deaths from these experimental drugs posing as vaccines. Too bad for the mom because she can’t sue Pfizer and is on the hook for her daughter’s hospital bills.

    Oh the best part is that the doctors accused her daughter of being mental. How nice !

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I was outside on a superb sunny day doing some work in the trees instead of ripping down the ski hill pissing off all the old goats who don’t belong in my way to begin with ….

      And then I read the latest infection numbers (probably fake) and negativity was creeping in with regards to Friday Donkey lockdown announcement…

      But THEN….

      I clicked to read your comment … and my previously half empty cup is now overflowing with the finest Champagne ever bottled!

      I am hyperventilating on joy…. lock me down till the end of days and I won’t mind .. so long as I get a steady feed of Wrecked CovIDIOT feel good stories like this.

      These Injections truly are like an anti-lottery…. every so often (and fairly often at that)… you get a Big Surprise… some of the surprises are like small lottery winnings… say $100 for matching 3 numbers or a severe headache… then you have the Jackpot — what’s when you die.

      The CovIDIOTS are addicted — they will keep buying tickets till they hit big.

      I wonder if she had time to get a selfie onto Facebook before this kicked in:

      Maddie and her parents were excited for her to participate in the vaccine trial, as they identify as “pro-vaccine and pro-science.” However, after receiving her second dose of the Pfizer vaccine on January 20, Maddie immediately experienced pain in her arm where she had been vaccinated. Within the next 24 hours, she developed severe abdominal and chest pain.

      Maddie told her mother that she felt “like my heart is being ripped out through my neck” as she experienced painful electrical shocks down her neck and spine, forcing her to hunch over to walk.

    • TIm Groves says:

      There seems to be too little compassion and empathy and simple awareness in today’s world.

      I think this is tied in with how people can accept these dangerous jabs without worry. Most people are sleepwalking. And many of them are sleepwalking into tragedy, disaster or even catastrophe.

      Hearing one story like the one you’ve linked to—just one—would be enough to sour me on the jabs for life. But Norman can hear thousands of such stories without a second thought, It doesn’t seem to bother him at all how many people have been maimed or killed.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        M Fast was out for a tramp earlier — she passed this roundabout she said there was a massive traffic jam…. now how can that be given it’s lockdown….

        Aha… there is an Injection Jamboree set up in that area… and the CovIDIOTS are out in numbers…

        I wonder if free has something to do with this … most people like free stuff… CovIDIOTS are after all… just another type of IDIOT…. I may serve up Free Purple Kool Aid×700.1fkq7y.png/1479438757424.jpg

      • NomadicBeer says:

        “Most people are sleepwalking.”

        Remember that evolution strives for efficiency. Lions sleep most of the time to conserve energy. People will not think unless they are forced to.

        Studies of hunter-gatherers show that their knowledge of their environment vastly surpasses that of the “civilized” people.

        Well, one part of our environment is the web of conspiracies and propaganda that creates our manufactured reality. Those who don’t learn about it end up being unthinking, disposable pawns.

        The unfortunate part for me is that I know the majority won’t wake up unless they are really hurt so I depend on their suffering for my own survival. That’s not a sane situation to be in…

  6. Azure Kingfisher says:

    Fun with Twitter:

    Patrick Henningsen, @21WIRE

    “A (former) friend of mine, who is a GP, has already made nearly £100K in cash bonuses this year from pushing the #COVID19 #vaccine. By this time next year, and with the help of Gov’t and Vaccine Passports, and booster requirements – he reckons that annually figure could double.”

    Josh Nelson, @joshnelson

    “Can someone please tell me how the Taliban survived a year and a half without masks, social distancing, pcr testing, mandatory vaccines, and now even managed to recapture Kabul and freely rule Afghanistan in the middle of a global pandemic.”


    farmski, @originalfarmski

    “These people can effect the world with box cutters. Fly planes like skilled veterans after a couple of lessons… Hardy folk who hide in caves.”

    Jennifer Arcuri, @Jennifer_Arcuri

    “Can anyone name a time in history where the people, corporations and governments who favoured a totalitarian police state stood on the right side of history? …Asking for a friend.”

    TY LEMMON, @tuxlemons

    “The official CDC website states that under no circumstances should pregnant women eat egg dishes with runny yolks. The same website then demands they take a jab with 12,791 reported deaths and 571,830 adverse events, to combat the 99.99% COVID survival rate for women aged 20-39.”

  7. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    “BUFFALO, N.Y. — Buffalo Bills wide receivers Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis, and defensive tackles Star Lotulelei and Vernon Butler will all miss the next five days of practice after being deemed close contacts of a team trainer who tested positive for COVID-19.

    All four tested negative for the virus Tuesday morning but must miss practice anyway, per the NFL’s COVID-19 policy. The trainer is fully vaccinated.”

    The trainer is fully vaccinated.

    so outspoken anti mRNA vaccine player Cole Beasley must quarantine for 5 days because he was around a “fully vaccinated” trainer.

    I wonder if it was the FDA “approved” vaccine.

    this is gov/BigPharma collusion at its worst.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      This reminds me of the ‘Covid’ who’s on first thing…

      We need normduncMikethePlug to baby step us through the logic… so guys … the trainer was Injected so he would not catch covid… but now he’s caught covid…. and the Uninjected guys have to quarantine…

      Why don’t all the Injected players get forced into quarantine as well… they might have contracted Covid after being in contact with the Infected Injected Covid trainer….

      It will be really amusing if the Injected Players contact covid from the Injected Infected Trainer….

      Baby steps fellas… explain this to Fast Eddy as if you were talking to a 5 year old.

  8. Student says:

    There is an interesting news during these days in Italy.
    Alessandro Meluzzi, a well know criminologist, psychiatrist and former politician has recently publicy declared that he has been offered to receive a false vaccine in order to promote vaccines to the pubblic and gain relative documents too (Green Pass).
    He said he knows that from a certain high level of the society (politicians and other important persons) have very often had false vaccines.
    Alessandro Meluzzi is well known to have his own positions, but it seems he has never made false public declaration so far.
    So, what he has said could be true.

    Very important persons probably rely on being treated with Monoclonal Antibody Therapy in case of need ?

    Please see:

  9. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The IMF will distribute about $650 billion in new Special Drawing Rights to its members on Monday, providing a “significant shot in the arm” for global efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said.

    “The International Monetary Fund’s largest-ever distribution of monetary reserves will provide additional liquidity for the global economy…”

    • Bei Dawei says:

      This makes it sound like a fun lottery!

      ‘…providing a “significant shot in the arm”…’

      There must have been a better way to express this.

    • More debt (or funny money) to substitute for a lack of physical resources, including oil and energy. It doesn’t really work, however.

      • Sam says:

        Seems to be working so far…

        • MonkeyBusiness says:

          I agree. Been working for so many years.

          • Lets make it more granular, primarily it still works for now as providing “time delay” cushion for the elites, their top projects to regroup – carve fiefdoms, trying to park wealth etc.. and on the lower plane keeping the overall system afloat..

            If you have not noticed the structural changes had been already made, so perhaps the next economic crash would only unmask the situation. Selected parts of the economy (housing – mortgages) will be incorporated into some quasi public etc. The same applied for other most important segments of the economy (defense, energy)..

            Basically, people would be sitting pretty, drawing basal survival UBI, but having slightly (well profoundly) curbed personal – frivolous consumption as these largely stop flowing to the US (EU slightly better case).

            That’s a master plan for perhaps two decades of additional breathing space, maybe less. Realistically though, I doubt it’s workable beyond ~2026-35 horizon but I was wrong on timing before, and as we all well know the gullibility of pop is just bottomless pit, always expanding such trends.

            • MonkeyBusiness says:

              I am not an elite, and I am still having fun. I bet a lot of people here are not elites either.

              Gail talks a lot about resource constraint, but the biggest constraint in the room is brain cells . I am talking especially about the short memories of most Westerners. You can shove through all sorts of stuff through that hole. More bubbles? Sure.

        • James Speaks says:

          Money is a device for transferring ownership of some physical asset, like food or gasoline, from one person to another. When there is not enough actual production to keep enough money circulating, issuing funny money lets those in possession of funny money pass it off as a thing of value and unless the seller quickly goes out and acquires replacement assets, he is going to lose. This works only as long as there are enough extant physical assets that sellers are willing to sell and buyers are willing to buy. As the assets decrease, because insufficient assets are being produced, sellers want more per asset. This is called inflation.

          The only way to get ahead is to produce enough asset, and without oil and its derivatives, that is a difficult thing to do, and to hold onto assets that can be used to produce. My favorites are land (trees and food), hand planes (coffins) and a lathe (cremation urns).

          • Hideaway says:

            Just nice there is a thread/topic on the real issues for a change..

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            “The only way to get ahead is to produce enough asset, and without oil and its derivatives, that is a difficult thing to do…”


            good thing FF production is only down a few % from the 2019 record high.

  10. Harry McGibbs says:

    “South Africa Unemployment Rate Rises to Highest in the World… South Africa’s unemployment rate surged to the highest on a global list of 82 countries monitored by Bloomberg.

    The jobless rate rose to 34.4% in the second quarter from 32.6% in the three months through March…”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “South Africa’s only insurer covering political violence will increase its premiums to cover a rise in reinsurance costs following some of the worst unrest in decades, the head of the state-owned company told Reuters.”

      • Insurance covering political violence in South Africa? This sounds like a type of insurance that no company can sell at an affordable rate. I wouldn’t count on it being available to cover claims. The insurance company is a South African government sponsored insurer. If it pays, about all it can do is issue more government debt to try to compensate the businesses. The rates are very certainly inadequate; all of the private insurers pulled out.

        It is very much like a lot of government sponsored programs. It works, as long as the government is doing well. If the government cannot issue more debt without its currency relativity dropping greatly, then this is not possibly a solution. It reminds me of government promises to pay pensions. Maybe, maybe not.

    • South Africa is not doing well!

  11. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Britain’s economic recovery from lockdown has slowed sharply in the past month despite the removal of most remaining pandemic restrictions, as businesses suffered the worst shortages of workers and materials in decades.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “According to the Confederation of British Industry’s latest monthly Industrial Trends Survey, stock adequacy fell to -14 from July’s -11, the third record low in as many months. Stock adequacy is now at its lowest since the CBI survey began in 1977.”

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “UK truck driver shortage signals a broken labour market.

        “The empty shelves are a visible message from a workforce that’s usually invisible. They tell a story about what’s gone wrong in this corner of the 21st-century economy — and not just in the UK.”

        • geno mir says:

          It will be sign of cosmic karma if Britain finds itself in the grips of hunger. Who knows, perhaps they will have a chance to experience first hand all those ‘good things’ they have subjected other peoples to.

          • Xabier says:

            You’ve played ‘Sins of the British Empire’.

            A good one, I’ll admit – but Artleads says they weren’t as bad as all that, on the whole.

            My hand is ‘Balkan Massacres’.

            Again and again, and again……

            Trump that!

            • Malcopian says:

              Britain fought a brutal and dirty war against the Boers, which they won in 1902. By 1921, Britain gave up southern Ireland. After that, it was downhill all the way.

              After 9/11 (2001), the USA invaded Iraq and Afghanistan. Were there more? After that it was downhill all the way, and this year they exited Afghanistan. See how history rhymes!

            • @Malcopian

              and one day the Unionists of NI will taste the same medicine forced to the Tamils by the Singhali.

        • I expect that the problem is that there is too little difference between what a person earns for working, relative to not working. Also, the overall labor force is too low, thanks to the many retired people and the lack of low-wage temporary immigrants.

        • Xabier says:

          No sign of any empty shelves here, at least. Fresh British fruit in abundance.

          Am stocking up nonetheless…..

          The only gaps were one particular brand of potato crisps, and of expensive chocolate ( just noticed them not buying).

      • Broken supply lines! Too many suppliers with problems of one kind or another!

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        The Tory press can spin it however it likes, but it is because of Brexit. UK relied heavily on EU HGV drivers and now has a shortage. Yes it can be argued that the domestic sector needs reform but there are no signs of that happening. Boris’ ‘solution’ to bring in 2000 army drivers to help with a shortage of 100,000 are simply daft. UK ‘democracy’ simply is not functioning any more and neither is the UK.

        • Malcopian says:

          That’s because Boris was stupid enough to go for a ‘hard Brexit’.

          Boris was born in New York and has Turkish ancestry. But we need somebody with a bit of Anglo-Saxon common sense.

          I remember 1978 or early 1979, when my sister came home from school, excited because she’d waved at “the soldiers” and they’d waved back at her. The soldiers were driving a Green Goddess (military fire engine back then) to a fire. It was the so-called Winter of Discontent, when the firemen, undertakers, hospital porters, etc., were all on strike.

          • Sorry. They all got killed at Flanders and Somme

            Thanks to Edward Grey and Chuck Fitzclarence, who committed the greatest fuckup in the history of mankind

          • Bei Dawei says:

            Boris is an “Accidental American” (or was, before he renounced) and has no substantial ties with New York or the USA, other than having been born there. I wouldn’t read much significance into his Turkish ancestry either.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          The FT article is actually very reasonable and balanced IMO. It concludes:

          “The story of Britain’s empty shelves, like that of its unpicked strawberries and unprocessed chickens, is the story of how migration combined with a weakly regulated labour market and hugely powerful retailers have allowed some goods and services to become unsustainably cheap.

          “The system shaved money off our shopping bills but it wasn’t resilient. Remain voters are right to say Brexit helped to cause the current crisis, but wrong to say everything was fine without it. Brexit voters are right to say migration helped suppress driver pay, but as the Netherlands shows, Brexit wasn’t the only way to resolve it.

          “The labour shortages are a moment of reckoning. If we just use them to bicker about Brexit, we’ll drown out the real lessons in the noise.”

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            Perhaps the “real lessons” are that a country should think twice before cutting off its labour supply, with no contingency plans to cope with the disruption to supply lines, and do not elect a buffoon as PM who thinks that it is an occasion simply to draft in some army for photo ops and to wave flags?

            UK now has no functional government and no functional opposition – both largely due to Brexit. The FT cannot reduce all of that to pointing out that the domestic trucking sector would need reform – which has not happened and shows no signs of happening. UK is a total farce now.

            If UK were the least bit ‘reasonable and balanced [sic]’ then it would not now be in this situation.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              “Perhaps the “real lessons” are that a country should think twice before cutting off its labour supply, with no contingency plans to cope with the disruption to supply lines.”

              This is certainly fair comment. Unfortunately political incompetence/empty promises and supply-chain disruptions are probably part of the landscape moving forwards so we may as well get used to them.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              “Bus driver shortages are latest challenge hitting US schools…

              “The driver shortfall isn’t new, but a labor shortage across many sectors and the pandemic’s lingering effects have made it worse, since about half the workforce was over 65 and more vulnerable to the virus…”


            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Nature does not accept excuses – and neither do I, certainly from the government. Government exists to foresee and to address problems, not to make excuses – otherwise UK might as well give up now.

              If the Westminster government cannot get its act together, and it becomes an excuse machine, then the regions will certainly look for other options. I will not be ‘getting used’ to anything let alone UK incompetence.

              Did you vote Tory? Is that why you bat for them? Let’s hear it.

            • Kowalainen says:


              Really Mirror, really?!?!!


            • Harry McGibbs says:

              “Government exists to foresee and to address problems, not to make excuses.”

              All governments, regional or otherwise, will increasingly fail in that endeavour.

              We have a *limits to growth* problem. An inability of governments to make good on promises, effectively manage circumstances and ultimately to hold together is baked into the cake. This is the prism through which I view events and why I am a regular on OFW. But by all means rail against the failings of the British State as if they have causative primacy. Whatever gets you through the day.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              It would be cynical to try to use finite world themes as a ‘one size fits all’ excuse for every failing, every ‘incompetence’ of the Tory Party and of the UK. The fallacy hardly needs to be pointed out. Always assume that other people can recognise fallacies, people do themselves no favours otherwise, because others often can. Glibness rarely cuts it. But whatever excuse you fancy will get you through the next GE – and the Scottish independence referendum – but I would not bet on it. Failure rarely attracts votes and excuses rarely cut it.

              So you did vote Tory and you do bat for them?

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              “So you did vote Tory and you do bat for them?”

              A revealingly creepy interrogation, Mirror. You are cutting a sad figure. As I have mentioned before, I did not even bother voting at the last election. Not even strategically.

              “It would be cynical to try to use finite world themes as a ‘one size fits all’ excuse for every failing, every ‘incompetence’ of the Tory Party and of the UK.”

              The UK has been in a net energy bind since 2003. This is the prism through which I *view* the UK’s worsening political dysfunction, which has everything to do with understanding it and placing it in context – and nothing to do with excusing it. There is no fallacy.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              You really are getting creepy, Barry Glib with your deflections. Your fallacy that FW themes excuse every Tory failure and incompetence is totally blatant and indefensible. You would simply withdraw it if you had any decency or respect for other people, instead of firing out abuse. You certainly do bat for the Tories even if you deny that you vote for them. You even tried to construct a ‘one size fits all’ shield for them. Duck quacks, duck is. You are a totally sad, glib bloke, whatever airs and graces you try to affect to impress people – sad.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Nice talking about batting and all that, but Mirror, this style of conversation isn’t quite cricket, my good man. Harry’s a nice gentle guy and you are baiting and abusing him for no good reason.

              The in-your-face aggression and the veiled vindictiveness reveals your Irish roots there. It’s a cultural thing, a learned behavior pattern. You are a product of your time and place, as we all are.

              I had an Irish grandmother from County Cork who was a lot like you, especially after a few Whisky (or Whiskey) Macs, but basically anytime she thought she could get away with it.

              Today, Tory, Labour, Liberal or Nationalist—politicians are all the same, all bought and paid for, all on the take, all compromised, and all bloody useless for governing the country. What more is there to say about it, really?


              ‘Independent intavenshan’, as Linton Kwesi Johnson explains, ‘simply says no to those political forces who’re trying to suck the independent black movement into their midst’. This particular poem furnishes one with a clearer sense of Johnson’s radical politics: through the exclusion of various left- liberal organisations in Britain, the poem implicitly celebrates a politics relatively more radical than that of the groups it excludes:

              mek dem gwaan
              now it calm
              far in di en’ is wi who haffi ride di staam

              di SWP can’t set wi free
              di IMG can’t dhu it fi wi
              di Communist Pawty, cho, dem too awty-fawty an’ di laybahrites dem naw gob fite fi wi rites …

              di CRE can’t set wi free
              di TUC can’t dhu it fi wi
              di Liberal Pawty dem is nat very hawty
              an’ di Tory Pawty a noh fi wi pawty …

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              “…if you had any decency or respect for other people.”

              Riiight, Mirror. Forgive me if I take this with a pinch of salt coming from a person that drunk-posts IRA propaganda, so that they can feel less tragically disempowered for a few precious hours of an evening.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              More heroic than tragic.

          • Malcopian says:

            Mirror bleats on so much about the SNP that he gives everyone a sickener of them. I’m starting to think that he is a shill – Boris Johnson’s secret weapon. How much does Boris pay you, Mirror?

            Mirror asks Harry to reveal his partisan preferences, if any. Meanwhile, by contrast, Mirror refuses to reveal his background or motives. He just says “I’m not Scottish or Irish” and fools himself that he’s playing a clever double game. Then what nationality is he? I think his use of the term “bloke” reveals that he’s probably English and certainly not American.

            So why does Mirror propagandise for the SNP, 24 hours a day? And in such a simplistically partisan way? Does he have a crush on Nicola? Each to his own – whatever floats his boat. Stranger things have happened. 😉

            When he doesn’t like what you say, Mirror projects his dark side onto you and accuses you of being drunk – possibly the thing he most hates about himself, after his apology to Gail for a drunken rant.

            So come on, Mirror – unmask yourself! Show a bit of Nietzschean courage and honesty. What’s your nationality, if not Scottish, and why are you so dissatisfied with your nationality that you propagandize 24/7 for the SNP? (I am reminded of a certain Austrian who around a century or so ago desperately longed to be German).Where were you born, Mirror? Where were your parents born? Come on! Be brave and don’t tell fibs. Anyway, Gail at least knows where you’re posting from.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              No ganging up, this is an adult forum not a playground. If you want to hold Barry’s hand then go ahead but do not use me as an excuse.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Barry and Malcy strut their moves together on the dance floor.

    • No one understands the importance of maintaining supply lines. It takes a whole lot of fossil fuels, low-paid workers, and materials of varies types (including water and copper) to keep the whole system operating.

      • Sam says:

        The economies have to run at full capacity to fulfill all of its obligations. Looking at oil consumption I see the best countries running around 80 percent; that means adding massive more debt and eventual deflation…or stagflation.
        What is happening in Europe? Marco how is Italy economy? Zero hedge has a story about Germany decoupling

        • An economy cannot really permanently decouple from energy use, without becoming very dependent on the willingness of others to produce goods and services to fulfill your needs. The US tried this. It is not being pushed into a corner, because it cannot keep going any further.

          • Sam says:

            I meant maybe decoupling from the rest of Europe….they have carried the rest soon they will tire of that

            • If you meant that so-called PIGS (southern) states are destined for way smaller transfer union from NOW on, that’s correct. It will be a double whammy on top of that, for one less direct subsidies flowing down from the core (DE*), and secondly also perma damaged income loop from travel – hotel biz.

              On the upside is that it could mean return of young to the country side, which would be obviously hampered by recent heat waves and decades, well centuries and millennia of decimating these regions by wrong agri practices. But it is doable (know how exists) to jump start it again at least in part of these regions..

              * also taking in account forthcoming (mid term) devaluation of EUR (not vs USD) and long term dissolution of its current form (membership)

  12. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Coronavirus: Asia’s economic recovery losing momentum as Delta variant knocks wind out growth…

    “The rapid spread of the highly infectious Delta variant and low vaccination rates have caught much of Asia off guard.”

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    Pro maskers…. what are we looking at here:

    • geno mir says:

      Given that normal, average Britons (I don’t count Scots and Irish as Britons) have the cognitive abilities of a jelly fish and are absolutely incapable of spotting a pattern I think it is totally safe to post this graphic on every fu_king billboard in the UK. It will make good implicit commentary of the current times in this country. Oh, how bad that there will be less than 4 people who will see the humor and crack a smile.
      You see, Mr. Fast, I don’t get mad or angry that IC is going down – I get mad from the fact that people are unable to find the humor in the fall we are currently engaged in. And there is so much of it!

      • Malcopian says:

        My passport is British, but I myself am English. 😉 How about you?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I wonder if someone were to take that image and purchase some bill board space for it in places that mandate masks… what would happen… without a doubt orders would be issued to take it down.

    • Bei Dawei says:

      Maybe we’re looking at correlation not being causation.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Or maybe we are looking at masks are f789ing useless — like all the proper studies say they are including those from the CDC — at controlling covid.

        But then from a CovIDIOTS standpoint that might not be obvious….

  14. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Covid surge triggers fresh travel slump in China.

    “China’s aviation and hospitality sectors have suffered a sharp drop in demand amid a return of Covid-19 restrictions after leading the world’s pandemic recovery for more than a year.”

    • Subtitle: ““One of the things that Covid rollout has done, is create a whole new category of forbidden speech…if you’re not completely credulous then you’re somehow “putting people at risk”.”

      No kidding!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Just finishing up this

        Drawing on a huge range of sources – letters, memoirs, conversations – Orlando Figes tells the story of how Russians tried to endure life under Stalin. Those who shaped the political system became, very frequently, its victims. Those who were its victims were frequently quite blameless.

        The Whisperers re-creates the sort of maze in which Russians found themselves, where an unwitting wrong turn could either destroy a family or, perversely, later save it: a society in which everyone spoke in whispers – whether to protect themselves, their families, neighbours or friends – or to inform on them.

        We are entering a similar situation …. although nobody has to say anything to end up in a quarantine camp… they have a digital record of your Injection Status….

        • I’m not convinced the parallels are sound.

          Russia was on a roller coaster of failed imperium, waves of foreign interventions, civil war, and building up new state immediately in need for starting to defend up for next bigger war.. all within hardly compressed two decades.

          Basically, the prevailing quasi scholarly doctrine is that Stalin is 99.97% (or worse) of Adolf, hence treated accordingly. That’s lame astro-turf game for W-audience consumption.. since in the East they had ~70yrs to evaluate / retrospect it for themselves on their own, reaching very different conclusion.

          Obviously, the perspective is relative, “he” got my folks out of concentration camp in time, I have no complaints or regrets, only gratitude. Yes there also many others with way more mixed score..

    • geno mir says:

      What do you expect, Eddy? Down there everyone is a direct descendent of the worst of the worst British gene material.

      • Xabier says:

        Or in some ways, perhaps the best.

        To be a deported criminal in 18th and 19th century Britain was not necessarily very shameful – the bar was set very low indeed.

        Energetic, intelligent, adaptable , but dispossessed people might have been more inclined to take a chance and break the law.

        Lots of scum, too, of course.

        • Malcopian says:

          The Aussies seem to have a bolshy side that the quieter New Zealanders lack. I theorise that this is because there was a much higher Irish admixture in the early white Australian population.

          I’m just surprised the Aussies didn’t abolish the monarchy long since. I expect the Kiwis will keep the monarchy long after the UK or English or rump UK have got rid of it.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I suspect that the slavers in the America’s would have been a far more vile lot than the ‘criminals’ exporting to Australia…

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        Put stereotypically, AUS is the rough loud mouths and NZ is the sheep that likes to give service with a smile – and nothing wrong with any of that?

        That said, the population of both islands is changing fast. About 48% of AUS kids were either born abroad, or have one or both parents who were born abroad. Almost half of the young population is either first or second generation incomer. NZ kids are now 50% Maori, Asian and Pacific islands, and 50% European. So, it may be that the national stereotypes are fast on their way out.

    • In Australia, police pepper spray 12-year olds for not wearing masks.

    • It will be “interesting” to see how this turns out. Some Australian citizens can only be pushed so far.

      We know that in times of energy shortages, governments tend to be overthrown. Or nations can split over differences.

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    Israel’s COVID-19 vaccine boosters show signs of taming Delta

    How about …

    Boosters slap Delta in the face… stunning him …. but not killing him…. he’ll shortly recover from that blow… and he’ll be pissed as hell… and pound the daylights out of the vaccines… and emerge stronger than ever

  16. Xabier says:

    View from an Iranian friend on the vaccine situation:

    ‘It’s like ‘Quajar coffee’ ‘.

    X: ‘What’s that?’

    ‘Well, when the Shahs, or anyone in our family, wanted to get someone out of the way, they put the poison in the coffee which was served at the end of the meal. And you could never turn down dinner with the Shah, or pass on the coffee’.

    X; ‘Hmm, was it always poisoned?’

    ‘Oh no, just some of the time…….’ Merry chuckle.

    Nothing new under the sun.

    • So that is the secret! Its like the vaccines killing people only part of the time.

      • Xabier says:

        Exactly, Gail.

        It’s all wrapped up in a cloud of uncertainty.

        Punished if you don’t; and with almost unquantifiable chance of being killed if you do: that’s where they are trying to put us…….

        Whoever in 2019 would have thought a story like that would make sense to us in 2021?!

  17. Rodster says:

    “Abbott & Costello’s famous skit “Who’s on First Base.” Updated to COVID”

    Bud: ‘You can’t come in here!’
    Lou: ‘Why not?’
    Bud: ‘Well because you’re unvaccinated.’
    Lou: ‘But I’m not sick.’
    Bud: ‘It doesn’t matter.’
    Lou: ‘Well, why does that guy get to go in?’
    Bud: ‘Because he’s vaccinated.’
    Lou: ‘But he’s sick!’
    Bud: ‘It’s alright. Everyone in here is vaccinated.’
    Lou: ‘Wait a minute. Are you saying everyone in there is vaccinated?’
    Bud: ‘Yes.’
    Lou: ‘So then why can’t I go in there if everyone is vaccinated?’
    Bud: ‘Because you’ll make them sick.’
    Lou: ‘How will I make them sick if I’m NOT sick and they’re vaccinated.’
    Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
    Lou: ‘But they’re vaccinated.’
    Bud: ‘But they can still get sick.’
    Lou: ‘So what the heck does the vaccine do?’
    Bud: ‘It vaccinates.’
    Lou: ‘So vaccinated people can’t spread covid?’
    Bud: ‘Oh no. They can spread covid just as easily as an unvaccinated person.’
    Lou: ‘I don’t even know what I’m saying anymore. Look. I’m not sick.
    Bud: ‘Ok.’
    Lou: ‘And the guy you let in IS sick.’
    Bud: ‘That’s right.’
    Lou: ‘And everybody in there can still get sick even though they’re vaccinated.’
    Bud: ‘Certainly.’
    Lou: ‘So why can’t I go in again?’
    Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
    Lou: ‘I’m not asking who’s vaccinated or not!’
    Bud: ‘I’m just telling you how it is.’
    Lou: ‘Nevermind. I’ll just put on my mask.’
    Bud: ‘That’s fine.’
    Lou: ‘Now I can go in?’
    Bud: ‘Absolutely not?’
    Lou: ‘But I have a mask!’
    Bud: ‘Doesn’t matter.’
    Lou: ‘I was able to come in here yesterday with a mask.’
    Bud: ‘I know.’
    Lou: So why can’t I come in here today with a mask? ….If you say ‘because I’m unvaccinated’ again, I’ll break your arm.’
    Bud: ‘Take it easy buddy.’
    Lou: ‘So the mask is no good anymore.’
    Bud: ‘No, it’s still good.’
    Lou: ‘But I can’t come in?’
    Bud: ‘Correct.’
    Lou: ‘Why not?’
    Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
    Lou: ‘But the mask prevents the germs from getting out.’
    Bud: ‘Yes, but people can still catch your germs.’
    Lou: ‘But they’re all vaccinated.’
    Bud: ‘Yes, but they can still get sick.’
    Lou: ‘But I’m not sick!!’
    Bud: ‘You can still get them sick.’
    Lou: ‘So then masks don’t work!’
    Bud: ‘Masks work quite well.’
    Lou: ‘So how in the heck can I get vaccinated people sick if I’m not sick and masks work?’
    Bud: ‘Third base.

  18. Tim Groves says:

    This is a handy symptom comparison chart for Covid-19, colds, flu, and allergies.

    It isn’t always clear from your symptoms, what bug is bugging you, but as knowledge itself is power, this should help calm you down if you have a bad headache or a runny nose.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Looks like it’s better to have covid vs flu… all the people I know who’ve had covid say it’s like a mild flu…

    • I question whether the symptoms for COVID-19 are right for the Delta variant.

      The academic article behind the Viet Nam article posted recently lists sore throat and runny nose among the most common symptoms of the Delta variant in the Viet Nam hospital study. Headache has become less common than these symptoms. Loss of smell (but not loss of taste) seems to be pretty high also.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Good points! That chart I posted is almost 18 months old. Things have evolved considerably since then.

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    “The Real Cost Of Green Steel” – “At a cost of $200,000,000,000,000 per degree of cooling, that’s gotta be far and away the world’s most expensive air conditioner,” writes Willis Eschenbach on ‘green steel’

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    The Department for Health and Social Care has ordered all care home staff to receive their first dose of a Covid vaccine by September 16th so they are fully vaccinated by the time regulations come into force on November 11th.

    This means staff – apart from those who are exempt for medical reasons – will be banned from working in care homes if they are not double-jabbed by the deadline.

    The Government has previously estimated that its mandatory vaccination policy will result in around 40,000 care home staff – 7% – either quitting or being sacked, costing the embattled sector £100 million to replace.

    However, new data seen by the Telegraph suggest that 60% of care home managers believe they will be forced to sack staff based on current vaccination rates, with some seeing up to 20 carers already quitting.

    One manager told the Telegraph that the pressure to force staff into receiving a vaccine is tantamount to “moral blackmail” which “infringes on their human rights”.

    The Institute of Health and Social Care Management (IHSCM) surveyed 530 care home managers across the U.K. and found 318 said they would be forced to sack staff by November 11th based on current vaccination rates.

    Around 35% of managers expect they will lose between 1-5% of staff, 19% fear they will lose between 6-10% of carers, and 4.11% believe they will lose between 11-15% of staff.

    However, as many as 3.9% of managers fear they could lose up to a fifth of their workforce, with between 16 and 20% of carers missing the November deadline.

    No problem — the Injected Geriatrics will die … and they’ll need to reduce staff anyway

    • this is diabolical squared aka win-win

      • Xabier says:

        It is ‘world of’: they get submission to their will either way: injected and compliant people, or collapsing ‘legacy’ systems and institutions…..

    • Requiring COVID-19 shots for those working in care homes sounds like a great way of reducing the number of people working in those facilities. It sounds like a great way to force families to take these folks back into their own homes, if they want care for them.

  21. Fast Eddy says:

    IsraHELL — Daily average deaths 23…. yesterday 55…

    More Boosters … More Boosters!!!!! Let’s start on the 4th shot as soon as the 3rd is finished… then go with 5 and 6 at the same time … then 7 8 9… Boost Baby Boost!

    Hahahahaha… have a peak at YOUR future:

  22. Fast Eddy says:

    Seems that was an empty threat by truckers to shut down Australia today…. either that or they’ve all been shot dead and there is a total media black out.

  23. Azure Kingfisher says:

    Let’s keep the variants coming!

    ‘Covid-22’ could be more deadly than Delta, expert claims

    “An expert has warned that a new variant dubbed ‘Covid-22′ could be more lethal than the world-dominating Delta.

    “Professor Doctor Sai Reddy of the federal technology institute ETH Zurich, an immunologist, believes that combination of existing strains could result in a new and more dangerous phase of the pandemic.

    “’It is very likely that a new variant will emerge and that we will no longer be able to rely on vaccinations alone,’ immunologist Sai Reddy said.

    “Prof Reddy told the German newspaper Blick that Delta, dubbed COVID-21, was the most contagious variant of all.

    “He cited coronavirus variants from South Africa (Beta) and Brazil (Gamma) that have mutated, allowing them to evade antibodies to some extent. Delta, on the other hand, is far more contagious but has yet to develop such mutations.

    “’If Beta or Gamma becomes more contagious, or if Delta develops mutations, then we could be talking about a new phase of the pandemic,’ said Reddy. ‘This would become the big problem of the coming year. Covid-22 could be even worse than what we are experiencing now.’

    “Professor Doctor Sai Reddy noted that recent scientific findings show that the viral load of the Delta variant is so high that anyone who contracts it who is unvaccinated can become a ‘super-spreader.’

    “’Since children under 12 cannot be vaccinated, they represent a large group of potential super-spreaders,’ said Reddy.

    “He noted that the Delta variant can avoid vaccinations due to its extremely high viral load.

    “’We need to counter this with a high level of antibodies, and that is exactly what a third booster dose of vaccine does,’ he explained.

    More taxpayer funding, more research grants, more vaccines, more boosters, more lockdowns, more complexity!

  24. Downunder says:

    It looks like Big Pharma is very smart, by pulling the right strings they go from having to pay for expensive testing to getting unlimited test subject that are paying (or the Govt is) for the privilege of putting themselves in danger.

  25. nikoB says:

    Vaccine passports

    What or who determines whether you are fully vaccinated and able to participate in civil society?

    At present those not vaccinated at all can easily be considered unvaxxed.
    What about those that have had covid and recovered. The gold standard of immunology suggest that they have the best immune response of all. Should they then be considered vaxxed or unvaxxed?

    So moving on to those that have begun the vaccination process. If you have received 1 shot already (of vaccines requiring 2) you are not fully vaccinated and must endure the same restrictions as the unvaxxed. But not long to wait and full freedom awaits after your second shot.

    Now what about all of you that are vaccinated with 2 shots and consider yourself fully vaccinated, you can be model citizens and return to your normal lives of social interaction and freedoms.
    But alas what is your status when the terminology of fully vaccinated changes to mean 3 shots. Can you guarantee that you will still retain all of your privileges of freedom or you will you instantly be lumped back into the unvaxxed category because you are not fully vaxxed. A green tick on your vaccination status will become a depressing red X. How long will it take before you can get your status back to fully vaxxed so that your freedoms return and that green tick puts a smile back on your face?

    This game can go on indefinitely if we sign on to it. No one has any guarantees that next year in order to be a free citizen you will have needed to have taken the three booster shots that the medical authorities deem to be required to fight and protect from variant whichever.

    Think about this before categorising someone as unvaxxed as you could be one of them with the stroke of a pen or a tap of a button. GO is now STOP.

    • There is also the rapid decline in the benefit of the coverage of the vaccine. If you were vaccinated eight months ago, does it give much of any benefit at all?

      • nikoB says:

        Maybe they should put that on the box.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        You become a variant factory … for some like norm dunc this has been their dream since they were children….

        • at least we don’t need to maintain our life-purpose by uttering 1 out of every 3 comments with the certainty that they carry profound wisdom..

          much more reassuring to look in occasionally and read a few of them for morning amusement, knowing that as long as Onassis’s barstool remains occupied here, then the ass sitting on it isn’t inflicting his opinions anywhere else.

          for that, society at large remains truly thankful.

  26. Fast Eddy says:

    Government ‘Flying Blind’ on Breakthrough Infections, as COVID Infections Among Fully Vaccinated Soar

    The CDC’s decision to stop tracking COVID in vaccinated people, unless they are hospitalized or die, means we have no full understanding on how the Delta variant spreads among the nearly 200 million partially or fully vaccinated Americans, or on how many are getting sick.

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    Thus, we have a key piece to the puzzle explaining why the Delta outbreak is so formidable — fully vaccinated are participating as COVID-19 patients and acting as powerful Typhoid Mary-style super-spreaders of the infection.

  28. Fast Eddy says:

    Study: Fully Vaccinated Healthcare Workers Carry 251 Times Viral Load, Pose Threat to Unvaccinated Patients, Co-Workers

    A preprint paper by the prestigious Oxford University Clinical Research Group, published Aug. 10 in The Lancet, found vaccinated individuals carry 251 times the load of COVID-19 viruses in their nostrils compared to the unvaccinated.

    This phenomenon may be the source of the shocking post-vaccination surges in heavily vaccinated populations globally.

    The paper’s authors, Chau et al, demonstrated widespread vaccine failure and transmission under tightly controlled circumstances in a hospital lockdown in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam.

    Oh… so it’s not the failure to wear masks that is causing the massive spike in Israel?

    • The Children’s Health Defense article points out something else about this article, of interest:

      “The scientists studied healthcare workers who were unable to leave the hospital for two weeks. The data showed that fully vaccinated workers — about two months after injection with the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine (AZD1222) — acquired, carried and presumably transmitted the Delta variant to their vaccinated colleagues.”

      Thus, it was only two months after these people had been vaccinated with the AZ vaccine that workers were already getting quite a lot of infection by Delta. At that point, the vaccine’s effectiveness was supposedly near its peak.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Unvaccinated person (to vaccinated person):
      Is that a load of COVID-19 viruses in your nostrils?

      Vaccinated person:
      No, it’s snot!

      You’ve got to laugh, ain’t ya!

      • I replied to an earlier silliness

        please copy across

        comic writing is a subtle skill—I don’t think it can be taught. you can either do it, or you can’t

    • Tim Groves says:

      Who was the Renaissance seer who prophesied this apocalyptic plague?


      In the feeble lists, great calamity through America and Lombardy.
      The fire in the ship, plague and captivity; Mercury in Sagittarius, Saturn warning.

      • From the post:

        A couple weeks ago, a meme started doing the rounds on social media, claiming that Nostradamus had predicted the coronavirus.

        “Nostradamus wrote in the year 1551 this!

        There will be a twin year (2020) from which will arise a queen (corona) who will come from the east (China) and who will spread a plague (virus) in the darkness of night, on a country with 7 hills (Italy) and will transform the twilight of men into dust (death), to destroy and ruin the world. It will be the end of the world economy as you know it.”

        The article also mentions another prophecy of Nostramus:

        The year of the great seventh number accomplished, it will appear at the time of the games of slaughter, not far from the age of the great millennium, when the dead will come out of their graves.

        The author the post then says:

        “Something for us to look forward to in 2027?”

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    Hahahaha… that didn’t take long!

    Over the weekend Putin announced Russia has shut its borders to Afghans now pouring out of the country amid the US exit and ongoing evacuation debacle, further castigating US and European leaders for placing refugees in neighboring central Asian countries – but which according to Putin is a potential threat to Russia as “We don’t want militants showing up here under cover of refugees.”

    It now appears Russia will take its security concerns a big step further, in what will be seen as a defiant thumb in the eye to Washington. Russia’s RIA news agency is reporting that the Kremlin stands “ready to deliver weapons and equipment to central Asian allies that border Afghanistan.” Further RIA cited top officials who said these large deliveries would be done “at special low prices”.

    • Hardly anyone wants more refugees.

    • Xabier says:

      A main aim of Western/globalist banker policy is to de-stabilise the Russian Federation, so Putin is probably right in his suspicions.

      The US has accepted a temporary ‘humiliation’ in Afghanistan in order to further other objectives.

      • It would be interesting to watch the very next steps indeed.
        Most likely it will be take some form of retreat but still with the objective of controlling specific pattern of the maritime routes in terms of cargo and energy transport. It will take yrs before the Chinese build up more of the bypassing infrastructure on the landmass instead.

        Ironically enough, now with the Muskianic adventures the US has (likely) returned back to the role of the most capable orbit / space hauling nation by far, but he is not completely in sync with the MIC and woke DC.., however as goes the saying about one single individual and a problem to solve..

        Additionally, even if they get rid of him and use the newly acquired space leverage for knocking down Chinese/Russians sat networks, the world would be depending on their sheer kindness not to evaluate this as direct mortal attack hence start of full scale nuclear doom escalation.
        The 2020-30s seem to be promising lot of new twists and surprises..

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    Update (1200ET): Hours after NYC confirmed its revised vaccine mandate for teachers and other public-school employees, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy announced to the press, and the people of the Garden State, that NJ would impose its own version – albeit a more mild one – of the requirement for all state employees.

    All state employees must now take a full course of vaccines or undergo testing once per week, with compliance expected by Oct. 18.

    Meanwhile …

    Israel struggles with COVID surge despite mass vaccinations

    Israelis flouting mask requirements may have been a main contributor to the rapid spread of the Delta variant in Israel, experts say.


  31. Fast Eddy says:

    Hours after the Pfizer vaccine was granted full FDA approval, the Pentagon announced that it was set to require vaccinations for all service members.

    Except, around one-third of US service members have refused the jab. In July, between 60% and 70% of personnel were fully vaccinated – with the Navy being the most vaccinated and the Marines being the least, according to the Washington Post.

  32. Bei Dawei says:

    “Mark L.” on JMG’s dreamwidth site posted the following:


    On the last open post I shared a list of possible issues with the vaccines. This is much of the same info but in a different format, in terms of what signs we should be watching for.


    What to watch for:
    Covid illness rates among vaccinated people increase over time, approaching rates in unvaccinated people.

    What it means:
    1) Waning immunity, or
    2) Immune escape variants

    Is it happening?

    Possible solutions:
    1) Booster shots to infinity – a real-time experiment on the human population with no clinical trials to demonstrate safety, or
    2) Stop the vaccination push until we can develop better vaccines that do not have this problem. Accept natural infection in the meantime.


    What to watch for:
    Elevated incidence of vascular problems, neurological problems, and/or other symptoms among vaccine recipients.

    What it means:
    Vaccine biotoxicity, likely due to spike protein.

    Is it happening?
    Yes, although the risk/benefit tradeoffs vs. covid itself for various risk groups are still somewhat unclear.

    Possible solutions:
    Limit vaccination to high-risk groups, while continuing development of vaccines that don’t have this problem.


    What to watch for:
    Positive correlation between vaccine coverage and Covid-19 caseload, in comparisons between nations or regions.

    What it means:
    Vaccine-enhanced viral spread (likely due to suppression of symptoms in the absence of infection prevention, in effect creating more asymptomatic carriers)

    Is it happening?
    Unclear, but the fact that many of the world’s most vaccinated countries currently have the highest caseloads is reason for suspicion.

    Possible solutions:
    Stop the vaccine rollout to the rest of the world until we have vaccines that are not “leaky” in this way.


    What to watch for:
    Worse Covid-19 disease outcomes in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated people. (Or possibly also worse outcomes when infected with other, similar viruses.)

    What it means:
    1) Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) via. viral infection of immune cells, or
    2) Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) via. immune overactivation (cytokine storms etc.), or
    3. Original antigenic sin (ingrained antibody production pathway for original virus precludes adaptation to new variants)

    Is it happening?
    No clear data yet; some evidence from molecular modeling that it is possible, and limited clinical indications (e.g. vaccinated patients with severe illness not responding to MATH+ treatment protocol). Past attempts to develop coronavirus vaccines suggest a high risk of ADE, and it may appear during waning immunity or upon emergence of new variants.

    Possible solutions:
    Stop vaccination campaign, focus on prophylaxis (e.g. widespread ivermectin use?).


    What to watch for:
    Increased incidence of autoimmune disease among vaccinated people.

    What it means:
    Vaccine-induced autoimmunity (i.e. self-targeting antibodies)

    Is it happening?
    No evidence yet that I am aware of; however autoimmune problems can take years to develop.

    Possible solutions:
    Stop vaccination and boosters.


    What to watch for:
    Accelerated emergence of Covid-19 variants of concern in regions with a high vaccination rate.

    What it means:
    Vaccine-driven viral evolution.

    Is it happening:
    Quite possibly, e.g., although definitive proof will be impossible for this one.

    Possible solutions:
    Develop less leaky vaccines; avoid vaccinating during periods of high viral prevalence.

    • I have never run across one of the things JMG mentions:

      “Original antigenic sin (ingrained antibody production pathway for original virus precludes adaptation to new variants)”

      This seems easy to imagine. The vaccine “trains” the immune system in one direction. When a variant comes along, it seems possible it will work less well, rather than better. I don’t know whether this actually happens or not.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      2) Stop the vaccination push until we can develop better vaccines that do not have this problem. Accept natural infection in the meantime.


  33. Fast Eddy says:

    Biden urges vaccine mandates for workers after BioNTech/Pfizer jab approved

    US president’s message comes after first full approval for a Covid-19 shot by the Food and Drug Administration

    US president Joe Biden urged employers to require workers to get vaccinated against Covid-19 after the Food and Drug Administration granted full approval to the BioNTech/Pfizer jab.

    “If you’re a business leader, a non-profit leader, the state and local leader, who has been waiting for full FDA approval to require vaccinations. I’m calling on you now to do that, require it,” he said in a statement from the White House on Monday.

    “All around the world, people want these vaccines. Here in America, they’re free, convenient and waiting for you. So please go today, for yourself, for your loved ones, for your neighbours, for your country,” he added.

    The FDA’s decision on Monday makes the two-dose mRNA jab, which will now be sold under the brand name Comirnaty, the first Covid-19 vaccine to receive full approval for use in people aged over 16. It continues to be used for children aged 12-15, and as a booster shot for people with weakened immune systems, under an emergency-use authorisation.

    Since December, the two-dose BioNTech/Pfizer jab had been administered under that protocol, given the urgent need for a vaccine to combat the pandemic.

    “This is a pivotal moment for our country in the fight against the pandemic,” Janet Woodcock, the acting head of the FDA, told reporters on Monday.

    “For some, an FDA-approved Covid vaccine may instil in them the confidence to go and get vaccinated,” she added.

    Americans talk tough… ultimately they are just as cowardly as everyone else…

    Reminds me of my dog… she’ll bark at anything that moves… but then if she hears a loud bang she immediately runs to me and whimpers….

    It’s almost 9am in Australia ….

    • Rodster says:

      That won’t gain any traction because in the US, small, medium and large businesses are BEGGING for workers. “Now Hiring” signs are everywhere. All this will do is more people will quit and it will result in more unemployment with government having to come in to the rescue. More businesses will just close their doors.

      People who have never worked in the private sector are the ones imposing their will on its citizens. It won’t work and it will make the economy whatever is left of it that much weaker.

    • I am thinking that vaccine mandates for workers won’t get very far either. It will make it more difficult for businesses to get and retain workers.

      I think we noted earlier that requiring consumers to be vaccinated cuts off a portion of a business’s potential customers, who will choose to go elsewhere. Businesses will find it harder to cover their overhead expenses.

      • Hm, if they manage ratio of at least 60:40 jab saturation in certain segments / nodes, that’s a good enough platform-mandate for demanding / imposing overall more authoritarian rule across the whole society. That seems to be the plan, and it’s apparently working swell.

        Lets fast forward in macro zoomed fashion a decade+ into the future, shall we.. Oh, when looking back at the early 2020s, oopsie we had the “waves” of epidemics, then the market crash, poverty spike, war with XY, .. , secession, .. , .. So, “today’s perception” will become a mere blurred footnote along the longer term ~collapse sequence..

        • Xabier says:

          Good point ‘world of’.

          I find that people in their 20’s know nothing at all about the GFC in 2008.

          This all plays into the hands of the Elders. Sorry, claws…….

    • Xabier says:

      The problem with all the talk about Yanks being heavily-armed, ‘only when you prise from my cold dead hands’ etc, is that you do have to be ready to die fighting, or the gun is utterly useless.

      You also have to be ready to go down as a family, rather than be enslaved. The ancient tribes did that (although not always, the will to live is very strong) , largely because they knew what slavery meant, and they were also ready to kill their children first.

      But this well-planned, creeping, Totalitarianism in a largely urban society will mean that the issue is never that clear-cut, lots of small steps and encroachments; and the power of the state will ensure that any real resistance will be crushed, in lots of mini-Wackos. Droned like Afghan wedding parties…..

      People will act like the British regiments in Singapore: they could have fought to the death, and in 1914-18 probably would have done, but instead they surrendered, thinking that being a POW wouldn’t be all that bad. A great mistake in their case.

      Taking up arms knowing you will die is very different to blasting off on a shooting range.

      • Xabier, the sense I get from people who might be inclined to armed resistance is that—once that bridge is crossed—there’s no going back. So it may need to get worse before a critical-enough mass sense that they truly have no alternative.

        Additionally, there isn’t real political opposition, nor any real liberty movement, nor leader(s)…

        The left keeps trying to “seed” violence and provoke right-wing responses (most notably 1/6, but also that silly recent “bomber”). Pretty unanimously, the right recognizes this, and is loathe to take the bait. Biding their time.

        • On the lack of truly alt political opposition and leadership:

          That balkanization (de-layering) process we observe in macro is also taking place in the micro, i.e. atomization process among individuals, families, small communities..

          In a way it has to re-crystallize from “nothing” up again, we are not there apparently, it’s a slow or helix path like process (invisible for a while in turns).

          • worldof, you are right. I have “liberal” friends who can’t figure out what is going on. One just “confessed” to me that she started going to a conservative Baptist church. People are desperate to find roots in something, as their lives are being systematically taken away… de-laminated, as you say.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I thought about going to church too but we’ve got duncnormMikethePlug to make sense of all of this on OFW … and the churches are closed because we are locked down on the south island and we don’t even have a single infection.

              That surely is a first

          • DB says:

            Excellent points, Xabier, Lidia, and Worldof. The community aspect of resistance seems to be critical. There may be some degree of geographical re-sorting occurring in the US, but probably far too little to make a difference. My guess is that if the US gets to the Australia is now (police brutality against protesters, dramatic restrictions on movement, tracking individuals’ movements, etc.), that some in the US will begin to take concrete action. But it will probably be uncoordinated and likely suppressed fairly effectively by violence from the state.

      • Ed says:

        an unused weapon is a useless weapon

        • A weapon used without a strategy, and with no back-up, is just a target for more suppression.

          Even Kyle Rittenhouse is condemned for acting in self-defense against attackers wielding their own firearms.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Oh I am sure all the fellas with all the guns are willing to walk the walk… but the thing is the NFL season is about to start… so they’ll lock and load after super bowl weekend…. or maybe they’ll delay it because February is too cold… but the MLB spring training starts … and then they can’t miss the final season of such and such tee vee series…. well maybe next year… yes.. yes… for sure next year…

  34. Fast Eddy says:

    This is an awesome graphic, uh? It makes it look like America is full of oil and places like Texas, North Dakota, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Colorado will be the oily gift that keeps on giving.

    For the sake of argument, and on behalf of conserving America’s oil, lets look at all this in a different way:

    Conventional oil production in the United States has fallen to 43% of total US production, is declining at the rate of 4% annually and its proven developed reserves are not being replaced. There has not been a significant onshore discovery of conventional reserves in our nation in 40 years.

    Unconventional oil is America’s last, remaining hope for long term energy security. The SCOOP/STACK, the DJ Basin, the Eagle Ford, Bakken and mighty Permian shale and shaley carbonate basins are the last refuge for our oily future.

    We are lied to every day about remaining locations to be drilled and remaining reserve potential from vast unconventional shale resources, resources that are expensive to extract and marginally profitable, at best.

    • If the price could rise to $400 per barrel (or other high price), there no doubt could be more oil extracted. The problem is that the oil price doesn’t rise arbitrarily high. That is why oil stays in the ground.

  35. Fast Eddy says:

    The emergency use authorizations for the COVID-19 vaccines require that providers of the vaccines report all COVID-19 cases in vaccinated individuals who get COVID-19 and are hospitalized or die.

    Healthcare professionals have reported to ICAN, stating in no uncertain terms, that this is not happening.

    Cases of COVID-19 in vaccinated individuals are called “breakthrough cases.” Understanding the true rate of breakthrough cases is critical in understanding the real-world effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines — especially when compared to cases in the unvaccinated.

    The CDC acknowledges, “no vaccines are 100% effective at preventing illness in vaccinated people. There will be a small percentage of fully vaccinated people who still get sick, are hospitalized, or die from COVID-19.” The only way to know that “small percentage” is to ensure all breakthrough cases where the vaccinated person is either hospitalized or dies are reported.

    They wouldn’t lie … would they?

    • That is a good point. No one is really keeping track of how many cases are associated with people who have been previously been vaccinated, so it becomes difficult to figure out hospitalizations of this subset.

  36. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    The marketing catch phrase of today’s Madison Avenue Marketing permeates even to fracking SMART
    Halliburton (HAL) Announces Execution of SmartFleet Technology
    Zacks Equity Research
    Mon, August 23, 2021, 7:40 AM
    Halliburton Company HAL announced the implementation of its SmartFleet intelligent fracturing system with a major operator in the Permian basin of West Texas.

    In 2020, Halliburton introduced the SmartFleet system, which is the first intelligent automated fracturing system of the oil and gas industry. It incorporates intelligent automation and visualization, with subsurface measurements across multiple wells to respond to reservoir behavior.

    The SmartFleet technology provides operators with real-time fracture control, while pumping through the integration of subsurface fracture measurements, live 3D visualization and real-time fracture commands. By means of the system, operators can drive improvements in completion execution and fracture outcomes.

    In contrast to standard task automation, SmartFleet implements intelligence and measurements, which allow operators to make stage-level decisions to optimize completions in real-time. Beside optimizing fracture placement across every stage, the SmartFleet system provides real-time insights to manage frac hits and assess their consequences on fracture performance.
    accomplished several groundbreaking achievements. Based on its effective runs across multiple basins so far, the SmartFleet system helped operators improve cluster uniformity up to 30%. It also helped optimize stage lengths, reduce completion costs up to 25% and achieve an increase in production of up to 20%.

    With the SmartFleet intelligent fracturing system, operators can instantly see and control fracture outcomes that ultimately lead to improved asset economics.

    Company Profile & Price Performance
    Headquartered in Houston, TX, Halliburton is one of the largest oilfield service providers.

    BAU is all IN…looks good for at least 2030…end of the world party postponed

    • Maybe improvements in technology can help fight the problem of too low oil price, relative to the rising cost of production. This (in theory) might help the US, but it won’t help most of the other production in the world. There is some oil that might be available by fracking elsewhere (Argentina, France, and China come to mind), but there may be enough other obstacles that this improvement may not make a difference.

      We will see. Even if it works, it takes time and supply lines from around the world to actually shift to the new technology.

      I notice the stock market isn’t exactly rewarding this new technology highly. The current stock price is $19.21. The price on January 27, 2017 was $58.21. The price is up from when oil prices were the lowest in 2020, but it seems to be oil price more than anything else that affects the stock price.

      • houtskool says:

        What is on the horizon is horizontal drilling. We peaked, in everything. Physical, real, moral, financially, emotionally, ecologically and in our minds and souls. And no, Jesus won’t come down again to save us. He is on Mars right now, talking to Jeff and Elon.

        I can smell the crazynous from miles away.
        I sure hope it stays that way.

      • Charlie says:

        Among the many interesting things I have heard from analyst Edgard Ocampo Tellez is that decades ago wells provided tens of thousands of barrels per day, today new wells collect only a small fraction of that. Today it takes many wells to produce what used to be one. At best, a large infrastructure network must be produced to meet the growing demand. Do you think we will see a 100 mbd production again one day?

        • rufustiresias999 says:

          In France, the areas where you could drill shale oil are in high density population areas. We do not have vast spaces like in North America.
          Besides, the narrative is everything will be powered by electricity, and electricity will be produced by a solar and wind. It starts tomorrow, and it will accelerate as soon as we get rid of the pandemic.

          • The version of the story I heard was that much of France’s shale resources are under Paris. All we need to do is dig up Paris.

            China has multiple problems with its shale resources, including being under populated areas. It is also lacking enough water for fracking, where it is needed.

            One thing that enabled the shale industry in the US was the fact that a lot of it is near conventional oil drilling that had already been built up. Thus, some pipelines are already in place. There are already a lot of (at least partially) trained workers available. Countries trying to start for the first time have to build all of the necessary infrastructure and train local workers, as well as directly pull the oil out of the ground.

  37. Azure Kingfisher says:

    Does the FDA think these data justify the first full approval of a covid-19 vaccine?

    August 23, 2021

    Peter Doshi, senior editor, The BMJ

    “Since late last year, we’ve heard that Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines are ‘95% effective’ with even greater efficacy against severe disease (‘100% effective,’ Moderna said).

    “Whatever one thinks about the ‘95% effective’ claims (my thoughts are here), even the most enthusiastic commentators have acknowledged that measuring vaccine efficacy two months after dosing says little about just how long vaccine-induced immunity will last. ‘We’re going to be looking very intently at the durability of protection,’ Pfizer senior vice president William Gruber, an author on the recent preprint, told the FDA’s advisory committee last December.

    “The concern, of course, was decreased efficacy over time. ‘Waning immunity’ is a known problem for influenza vaccines, with some studies showing near zero effectiveness after just three months, meaning a vaccine taken early may ultimately provide no protection by the time ‘flu season’ arrives some months later. If vaccine efficacy wanes over time, the crucial question becomes what level of effectiveness will the vaccine provide when a person is actually exposed to the virus? Unlike covid vaccines, influenza vaccine performance has always been judged over a full season, not a couple months.

    “And so the recent reports from Israel’s Ministry of Health caught my eye. In early July, they reported that efficacy against infection and symptomatic disease ‘fell to 64%.’ By late July it had fallen to 39% where Delta is the dominant strain. This is very low. For context, the FDA’s expectation is of ‘at least 50%’ efficacy for any approvable vaccine.

    “Now Israel, which almost exclusively used Pfizer vaccine, has begun administering a third ‘booster’ dose to all adults over 40. And starting 20 September 2021, the US plans to follow suit for all ‘fully vaccinated’ adults eight months past their second dose.”

    • Thanks! It sounds like this is a very cheap old drug that was approved for use in humans in 1975 in the US. It is mostly used to reduce very high cholesterol.

      The title of the academic article is, “Metabolic Regulation of SARS-CoV-2 Infection.” If people with high levels of fat in their blood are subject to problems from COVID-19, it sounds like it might be something to try.

      • Xabier says:

        Pah! Who wants cheap old, safe, drugs?!

        We want ‘modern technological miracles’, as Sir Patrick Vallance called the mRNA injections…….

  38. Azure Kingfisher says:

    The hilarity continues. So, you think you suffered from the Delta variant? What about all of those celebrities in the US claiming to have suffered from it?

    You aren’t legally allowed to know which variant gave you COVID-19 in the US, even if it’s Delta

    – Most people with COVID-19 in the US are legally prevented from knowing which variant infected them.

    – That’s because sequencing tests have to be federally approved for results to be disclosed to doctors or patients, and most are not yet.
    Lab scientists say the process of validating the tests for approval is too costly and time-consuming.

    “Several legal barriers prevented Reider and his doctors — as well as nearly all Americans who have tested positive for the coronavirus — from knowing which variant was to blame.

    “The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Service (CMS), which oversees the regulatory process for US labs, requires genome-sequencing tests to be federally approved before their results can be disclosed to doctors or patients. These are the tests that pick up on variants, but right now, there’s little incentive for the labs to do the work to validate those tests.

    “I don’t think there’s a lot of motivation, quite honestly, to get that done,” Kelly Wroblewki, director of infectious diseases at the Association of Public Health Laboratories, told Insider.

    “Some patients, however, feel they’re being denied access to their own health information.

    “…The important thing to recognize is it’s a liability for laboratories to release the information.”

    “So far, Wroblewki said, more than 50 public labs in the US are capable of sequencing coronavirus samples to detect variants. But she’s not aware of any labs that have completed the validation process to get federal approval.

    “The process of validating a next-generation sequencing test is burdensome,” Wroblewki said. “It takes a lot of time. It takes a lot of data. It takes a lot of resources. And the thing about the variants is that variants of concern and of interest are constantly changing, so you would have to do a whole validation every time you have a variant.”

    “For a sequencing test to be validated, a manufacturer needs to collect data to show that the test does a good job of detecting a specific variant, then request emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration. Alternatively, laboratories can validate their sequencing tests “in house,” meaning they collect the same data so CMS can approve their test.

    “The letter of the law from CMS is that if you don’t go through this full validation process, you cannot release the results with patient identifying information,” Wroblewki said. One major exception, she noted, is if epidemiologists need to disclose a person’s variant information over the course of contact tracing.

    “Validating a test for a single variant could take weeks to months, she added.

    “To keep up with it in real time, when it doesn’t influence a decision you’re going to make on how you treat a patient, just isn’t very useful,” Wroblewki said. “It’s satisfying curiosity more than it’s really benefiting a patient.”

    “At this point, unless we see something that truly is going to direct your therapeutic choice at an individual patient level, there’s not a lot of benefit to a physician or a patient in knowing you have Delta,” Wroblewki said. “There’s nothing differently that a physician is going to do to treat that patient.”

    “That makes it hard to justify the time and expense of a validating a test, she added — particularly when those resources could be used to do more sequencing.

    “If we see later there’s going to be true impact on a therapeutic that’s used to treat SARS-CoV-2, then yes, we’ll very likely change our approach,” Wroblewki said. “But at this moment, we’re not there yet.”

    This calls into question every single headline we’ve seen regarding outbreaks of the “Delta variant” in the US.

    • Based on the CDC investigation of Delta cases in the Cape Cod virus spread, it didn’t sound like the CDC was always able to figure out which variant a particular person had, even when they did the expensive diagnostics. The CDC report says that 90% of the people in the Massachusetts outbreak were found to have Delta. If a person reads further in the report, it turns out that the variant could not be determined in the remaining cases.

  39. Ed says:

    Remarkably, there is no organized opposition anywhere on the planet.

    • There seems to be a fair amount of locally organized opposition to requirements that individuals be vaccinated, however.

      We haven’t yet had a chance to see how the response to the FDA action plays out. The FDA (under the same Janet Woodcock) recently approved an Alzheimers Drug that seems to do nothing other than enrich the company that made it. Several organizations that might potentially use the drug have decided not to buy it, regardless.

      Janet Woodcock is only acting commissioner of the FDA. There are stories that she is out of the running for permanent commissioner already.

    • Xabier says:

      Oh, I don’t know, Ed: the opposition to sound scientific method, reason, human and civil rights, seems splendidly organised and well-funded…..

  40. Rodster says:

    “As of Mid-June 2021 in the UK, EU, and US combined there are 22,821 deaths and 4,085,204 injuries associated with the Covid Vaccine. As only a small percentage of adverse effects are believed to be reported, the actual number of deaths and injuries is substantially higher.”

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