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In my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained:
- With a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products, matched to the economy’s energy needs.
- With growing debt and other indirect promises of future goods and services, such as rising asset prices.
- With growing complexity, such as greater mechanization of processes and supply lines that extend around the world.
All three of these approaches are reaching limits. The empty shelves some of us have been seeing recently are testimony to the fact that complexity is reaching a limit. And the growth in debt looks increasingly like a bubble that can easily be popped, perhaps by rising interest rates.
In my view, the first item listed is critical at this time: Is the supply of cheap-to-produce energy products growing fast enough to keep the world economy operating and the debt bubble inflated? My analysis suggests that it is not. There are two parts to this problem:
[a] The cost of producing fossil fuels and delivering them to where they are needed is rising rapidly because of the effects of depletion. This higher cost cannot be passed on to customers, without causing recession. Politicians will act to keep prices low for the benefit of consumers. Ultimately, these low prices will lead to falling production because of inadequate reinvestment to offset depletion.
[b] Non-fossil fuel energy products are not living up to the expectations of their developers. They are not available when they are needed, where they are needed, at a low enough cost for customers. Electricity prices don’t rise high enough to cover their true cost of production. Subsidies for wind and solar tend to drive nuclear electricity out of business, leaving an electricity situation that is worse, rather than better. Rolling blackouts can be expected to become an increasing problem.
In this post, I will explore the energy-related issues that are contributing to the recessionary trends that the world economy is facing, starting later in 2022.
[1] World oil supplies are unlikely to rise very rapidly in 2022 because of depletion and inadequate reinvestment. Even if oil prices rise higher in the first part of 2022, this action cannot offset years of underinvestment.
The IEA, in its Oil Market Report, December 2021, forecasts a 6.4-million-barrel increase in world oil production in 2022 over 2021. Indications through September of 2021 strongly suggest that there was only a small rebound (about 1 million bpd) in the world’s oil production in 2021 compared to 2020. In my view, the IEA’s view that liquids production will increase by a huge 6.4 million barrels a day between 2021 and 2022 defies common sense.
The basic reason why oil production is low is because oil prices have been too low for producers since about 2012. Companies have had to cut back on developing new fields in higher cost areas because oil prices have not been high enough to justify such investments. For example, producers from shale formations could add new wells outside the rapidly depleting “core” regions if the oil price were much higher, perhaps $120 to $150 per barrel. But US WTI oil prices averaged only $57 per barrel in 2019, $39 per barrel in 2020, and $68 per barrel in 2021, so this new investment has not been started.
Recently, oil prices have been over $80 per barrel, but even this is considered too high by politicians. For example, countries are releasing oil from their strategic oil reserves to try to force oil prices down. The reason why politicians are interested in low oil prices is because if the price of oil rises, both the price of food and the cost of commuting are likely to rise, since oil is used in farming and in commuting. Inflation is likely to become a problem, making citizens unhappy. Wages will go less far, and politicians who allow high oil prices will be voted out of office.
[2] Natural gas production can be expected to rise by 1.6% in 2022, but this small increase will not be enough to meet the needs of the world economy.
With natural gas production growing at a little less than 2% per year, a major issue is that there is not enough natural gas to “go around.” Natural gas is the smallest of the fossil fuels in quantity. We are depending on its growth to solve many problems, simultaneously:
- To increase natural gas imports for countries whose own production is declining
- To provide quick relief from inadequate production by wind turbines and solar panels, whenever such relief is needed
- To offset declining coal consumption related to a combination of issues (depletion, high pollution, climate change concerns)
- To help increase world electricity supply, as transportation and other processes are gradually electrified
Furthermore, the rate at which natural gas supply increases cannot easily be speeded up because (a) the development of new fields, (b) the development of transportation structures (pipeline or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ships), and (c) the development of storage facilities all require major upfront expenditures. All of these must be planned years in advance. They require huge amounts of resources of many kinds. The selling price of natural gas must be high enough to cover all of the resource and labor costs. For those familiar with the concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI), the basic problem is that the delivered EROEI falls too low when all of the many parts of the system are considered.
Storage is extremely important for natural gas because fluctuations tend to occur in the quantity of natural gas the overall system requires. For example, if stored natural gas is available, it can be used when wind turbines are not producing enough electricity. Also, a huge amount of energy is needed in winter to keep homes warm and to keep the lights on. If sufficient natural gas can be stored for months at a time, it can help provide this additional energy.
As a gas, natural gas is difficult to store. In practice, underground caverns are used for storage, assuming caverns of the right type are available. Trying to build storage, if such caverns are not available, is almost certainly an expensive undertaking. In theory, importing natural gas by pipeline or LNG can transfer the storage problem to LNG producers. This is not a satisfactory solution, however. Without adequate storage available to sellers, this means that natural gas can be extracted for only part of the year and LNG ships can only be used for part of the year. As a result, return on investment is likely to be poor.
Now, in 2022, we are hitting the issue of very slowly rising natural gas production head-on in many parts of the world. Countries that import natural gas without long-term contracts are facing spiking prices. Countries in Europe and Asia are especially affected. The United States has mostly been isolated from the spiking prices thanks to producing its own natural gas. Also, only a small portion of the natural gas produced by the US is exported (9% in 2020).
The reason for the small export percentage is because shipping natural gas as LNG tends to be very expensive. Long-distance LNG shipping only makes economic sense if there is a several dollar (or more) price differential between the buyer’s price and the seller’s costs that can be used to cover the high transport costs.
We now seem to be reaching a period of spiking natural gas prices, especially for countries importing natural gas without long-term contracts. If natural gas prices rise, this will tend to make electricity prices rise because natural gas is often burned to produce electricity. Products made with high-priced electricity will be less competitive in a world market. Individual citizens will become unhappy with their high cost of heat and light.
High natural gas prices can have very adverse consequences. In areas with high prices, products made using natural gas as a raw material will tend to be squeezed out. One such product is urea, used as a nitrogen fertilizer. With less nitrogen fertilizer available, food production is likely to fall. If food prices rise in response to short supply, consumers will tend to reduce discretionary spending to ensure that there are sufficient funds for food. A reduction in discretionary spending is one way recession starts.
Inadequate growth in world natural gas production can be expected to hit poor countries especially hard. For example, a recent article mentions LNG suppliers backing out of planned deliveries of LNG to Pakistan, given the high prices available elsewhere. Another article indicates that Kosovo, a poor country in Europe, is experiencing rolling blackouts. Eventually, if natural gas available for export remains limited in supply, electricity blackouts can be expected to spread more widely, to less poor parts of Europe and around the world.
[3] World coal production can be expected to decline, further pushing the world economy toward recession.
Figure 3 shows my estimate for world coal production, next to a recent IEA forecast.
Figure 3 shows that world coal consumption has not been rising for about a decade.
Coal seems to be having the same problem with rising costs as oil. The cost of producing the coal is rising because of depletion, but citizens cannot afford to pay more for end products made with coal, such as electricity, steel and solar panels. Coal producers need higher prices to cover their higher costs, but it becomes increasingly difficult to pass these higher costs on to consumers. This is because politicians want to keep electricity prices low to keep their citizens and businesses happy.
If the cost of electricity rises, the cost of goods made with high-priced electricity will tend to rise. Businesses will find their sales falling in response to higher prices. In turn, they will tend to lay off workers. This is a recipe for recession, but a slightly different one than the ones mentioned earlier. It also is a good way for politicians not to get re-elected. As a result, politicians will try to hide rising coal costs from customers. For example, laws may be enacted capping electricity prices that can be charged to customers. Because of this, some electricity companies may be forced out of business.
The decrease in coal production I am showing for 2022 is only 1%, but when this small reduction is combined with the growth problems shown for coal and oil and the rising world population, it means that world coal supplies will be stretched.
China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. A major concern is that the country has serious coal depletion problems. It has experienced rolling blackouts since the fall of 2020. It has tried to encourage its own production by limiting coal imports, thus keeping wholesale coal prices high for local producers. It also limits the extent to which high coal costs can be passed on to electricity customers. As a result, the 2021 profits of electricity companies are expected to be reduced.
[4] The US may have some untapped coal resources that could be tapped, if there is a plan to ship more natural gas to Europe and other areas in need of the fuel.
The possibility of additional US coal production occurs because coal production in the US seems to have occurred because of competition from incredibly inexpensive natural gas (Figure 4). To some extent, this low natural gas price results from laws prohibiting oil and gas companies from “flaring” (burning off) natural gas that is too expensive to produce relative to the price it can be sold for. Prohibitions against flaring are a type of mandated subsidy of natural gas production by the oil-producing portion of “Oil & Gas” companies. This required subsidy leads to part of the need for high oil prices, especially for companies drilling in shale formations.
A major reason why US coal extraction started to decline about 2009 is because a very large amount of shale gas production started becoming available then as a byproduct of oil production from shale. Oil producers were primarily interested in extracting oil because it (hopefully) sold for a high price. Natural gas was a byproduct whose collection was barely economic, given its low selling price. Also, the economy didn’t have uses, such as trucks powered by natural gas, for all of this extra natural gas production. Figure 4 suggests that wholesale natural gas prices dropped by close to half, in response to this extra supply.
With these low natural gas prices, as well as coal pollution concerns, a significant amount of US electricity production was switched from coal to natural gas. It is my view that this change left coal in the ground, potentially for later use. Thus, if natural gas prices rise again, US coal production could perhaps rise again. The catch, of course, is that many coal-fired electricity-generating plants in the US have been taken out of service. In addition, coal mines have been closed. Any increase in future coal production would likely take place very slowly because of the need for many simultaneous changes.
[5] On a combined basis, using Tverberg Estimates for 2021 and 2022, fossil fuel production in total takes a step down in 2020 and doesn’t rise much in 2021 and 2022.
Figure 5 shows that on a combined basis, the overall energy being provided by fossil fuels is likely to remain lower in 2021 and 2022 than it was in 2018 and 2019. This is concerning, because the economy cannot go back to its 2019 level of “openness” and optional travel for sightseers, without a big step up in energy supply, especially for oil.
This same figure shows that the production of the three fossil fuels is somewhat similar in quantity: Oil is the highest, coal is second, and natural gas comes in third. However, oil shows a step down in 2020’s production from which it has not recovered. Coal shows a smoother pattern of rise and eventual fall. So far, natural gas has mostly been rising, but not very steeply in recent years.
[6] Alternatives to fossil fuels are not living up to early expectations. Electricity from wind turbines and solar panels is not available when it is needed, requiring a great deal of back-up electricity generated by fossil fuels or nuclear. The total quantity of non-fossil fuel electricity is far too low. A transition now will simply lead to electricity blackouts and recession.
Figure 6 shows a summary of non-fossil fuel energy production for the years 2000 through 2020, without a projection to 2022. For clarification, wind and solar are part of the electrical renewables category.
Figure 6 shows that nuclear electricity production has been declining at the same time that the production of electrical renewables has been increasing. In fact, a significant decrease in nuclear electricity is planned in Europe in 2022. This reduction in nuclear electricity is part of what is causing the concern about electricity supply for Europe for 2022.
The addition of wind and solar to an electrical grid seems to encourage the closure of nuclear electricity plants, even if they have many years of safe production still ahead of them. This happens because wind and solar are given the subsidy of “going first,” if they happen to have electricity available. Wind and solar may also be subsidized in other ways.
The net result of this arrangement is that wholesale electricity prices set through competitive markets quite frequently fall too low for other electricity producers (apart from wind and solar). For example, wind and solar electricity that is produced during weekends may be unneeded because many businesses are closed. Electricity produced by wind and solar in the spring and fall may be unneeded because heating and cooling needs tend to be low at these times of the year. Wind and solar electricity providers are not asked to cut back supply because their production is unneeded; instead, low (or negative) prices encourage other electricity producers to cut back supply.
Nuclear electricity producers are particularly adversely affected by this pricing arrangement because they cannot save money by cutting back their output when wind and solar are over-producing electricity, relative to demand. This strange pricing arrangement leads to unacceptably low profits for many nuclear electricity providers. They may voluntarily choose to be closed. Local governments find that if they want to keep their nuclear electricity producers, they need to subsidize them.
Wind and solar, with their subsidies, tend to look more profitable to investors, even though they cannot support the economy without a substantial amount of supplementary electricity production from other electricity providers, which, perversely, they are driving out of business through their subsidized pricing structure.
The fact that wind and solar cannot be depended upon has become increasingly obvious in recent months, as coal, natural gas and electricity prices have spiked in Europe because of low wind production. In theory, coal and natural gas imports should make up the shortfall, at a reasonable price. But total volumes available for import have not been increasing in the quantities that consumers need them to increase. And, as mentioned above, nuclear electricity production is increasingly unavailable as well.
[7] The total quantity of non-fossil fuel energy supplies is not very large, relative to the quantity of fossil fuel energy. Even if these non-fossil fuel energy supplies increase at a trend rate similar to that in the recent past, they do not make up for the projected fossil fuel production deficit.
With respect to anticipated future non-fossil fuel electricity generation, one issue is how much nuclear is being shut off. I would imagine these current closure schedules could change, if countries become aware that they may be facing rolling blackouts without nuclear.
A second issue is the growing awareness that renewables don’t really work as intended. Why add more if they don’t really work?
A third issue is new studies suggesting that prices being paid for locally generated electricity may be too generous. Based on such an analysis, California is proposing a major reduction to its payments for renewable-generated electricity, starting July 1, 2022. This type of change could reduce new installations of solar panels on homes in California. Other locations may decide to make similar changes.
I have shown two estimates of future non-fossil fuel energy supply in Figure 7. The high estimate reflects a 4.5% annual increase in the total supply, in line with recent past increases for the group in total. The lower one assumes that 2021 production is similar to that in 2020 (because of more nuclear being closed, for example). Production for 2022 represents a 5% decrease from 2021’s production.
Regardless of which assumption is made, growth in non-fossil fuel electricity supply is not very important in the overall total. The world economy is still mostly powered by fossil fuels. The share of non-fossil fuels relative to total energy ranges from 16% to 18% in 2020, based on my low and high estimates.
[8] The energy narrative we are being told is mostly the narrative that politicians would like us to believe, rather than the narrative that historians and physicists would develop.
Politicians would like us to believe that we live in a world of everlasting economic growth and that the only thing we should fear is climate change. They base their analyses on models by economists who seem to think that an “invisible hand” will fix all problems. The economy can always grow; enough fossil fuels and other resources will always be available. Governments seem to be able to print money; somehow, this money will be transformed into physical goods and services. With these assumptions, the only problems are distant ones that central banks and carbon taxes can handle.
The realists are historians and physicists. They tell us that a huge number of past economies have collapsed when their populations attempted to grow at the same time that their resource bases were depleting. These realists tell us that there is a high probability that our current economy will eventually collapse, as well.
The general shape that economic growth is likely to take is that of a “Seneca Curve” or “Seneca Cliff.” In the words of Lucius Annaeus Seneca in the first century CE, “Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” If we think of the amount graphed as the total quantity of goods and services received by citizens, the amount tends to rise slowly, gradually plateaus and then falls.
We now seem to be encountering lower energy supply while population continues to rise. It takes energy for any activity that we think of as contributing to GDP to occur. We should not be surprised if we are at the edge of a recession. If we cannot get our energy problems solved, the downturn could be very long-lasting.
Evergrande empire literally about to crumble
“This is the first phase of the financial meltdown and panic will start soon.”
They are the ominous words of veteran ratings analyst Dr Marco Metzler, who believes the demise of Chinese property giant Evergrande will “trigger the biggest financial crisis since 2008”.
Now, Evergrande hasn’t collapsed yet, but the start of 2022 has brought another sign the end is nigh.
As the headline of this article suggests, the company’s empire will soon literally start to fall to pieces.
Island dream becomes a nightmare
The latest concerning development is that Evergrande’s Ocean Flower Island, which was officially opened as the world’s largest artificial island last year, is in serious trouble.
Local authorities have demanded 39 of the island’s towers be demolished because environmental and zoning regulations were ignored over 10 years of development.
https://www.asiamarkets.com/evergrande-empire-literally-about-to-crumble/
The Chinese property problem is even worse than the problem the US had with the subprime lending. It could create a huge worldwide mess.
George Soros on China, Xi Jinping, and the Threat from Within
https://thesaker.is/george-soros-on-china-xi-jinping-and-the-threat-from-within/
Soros giving a “State of the World” speech as if he was a benevolent world leader. If you can stay awake he gets to the part where he doesnt sound too thrilled with Xi Jinping – Methinks he, other oligarchs and the Corporatocracy class might be getting worried that their investments in China may not bring about the future privately guided kingdom that they anticipated ruling after done hollowing out/destroying the US.
I have seen articles that some large US investment groups believe they have special contractual lending agreements that supercede typical bondholder rights and anticipate taking possession of key properties in Evergrande portfolio versus a reorganization that would better serve Chinese investors – a preference for US over Chinese citizens wellbeing that probably not go over well with the Dragon’s middle class. Perhaps Soros not so confident he and his buds gonna get their money back so looking to bring down Xi.
(one interesting factoid he puts forth – contends China population 1.4B is overcount by 130M & that combined with demographics lower population will cause them problems??)
He mentions some dates of key upcoming events – anticipate those may be targets for his special brand of “campaigning” or sponsorship of “Open Society” values – so anticipate more funding of anarachy via NGOs in foreign lands and domestic front groups like BLM or Antifa along with lawless DAs and Mayors such as those presiding over destruction of LA, SF, Chicago, Philly, NY, Portland, Seattle etc
Other articles on Saker blog may be of interest – certainly different and informative perspective on US/NATO/UK – Ukraine – Russia situation – variety of perspectives and lively comments sections.
Here is recent comment to above link – very good summary
“So George Soros feels betrayed.
The Globalist believed that they had a deal with China.
1) To pivot all Western industries to China, and sell their products in the West for major profits.
2) To developing deadly virus, and to erect Global medical dictatorship.
3) To reign in Russia.
However, China has its own agenda, and do not want to be dictated from Washington, London or Brussels. China´s security is better served in friendship with Russia, Iran and the rest of CSTO. George Soros feels betrayed, because China has said to Antony Blinken that the US and NATO should stop provoking Russia, and just accept the Minsk peace agreement.
George Soros demands that the US and Western Nations introduce sanctions on China. A response from Globalist US politicians didn’t take long, Nancy Pelosi has just called for sanction on China.
I guess the Globalists Honeymoon with China is over.”
Putin in China with Xi meet at beginning of Winter Olympics – will be interesting to see what announcements they make.
that’s what happens when cgi supersedes reality
BRITS ON RATIONS One-fifth of Brits ration electricity & gas as cost of living crisis deepens
A FIFTH of Brits have started rationing their electricity and gas use after getting clobbered by the cost-of-living crunch.
About 5.8million are already making the tough choice to go cold to keep spiralling bills under control.
Two-thirds of adults say their cost of living has soared in the past month.
Of those, more than half (53 per cent) are cutting back on treats like eating out as they spend less on “non-essentials”.
The stark numbers, from the Office for National Statistics, pile yet more pressure on Boris Johnson to cough up cash to ease the crisis. He and Chancellor Rishi Sunak are expected to come up with a plan within days.
But a minister yesterday warned the Prime Minister that any bailout package must help the “squeezed middle” as well as those on benefits. They told The Sun: “I think a lot of it will be targeted at the poorest. But so many people are struggling.”
The rationing, reminiscent of World War Two, came as Labour dared Tories to back its plan for a windfall tax on energy firms to raise cash to subsidise bills.
Households are braced for a triple blow in April as they are hit by higher energy bills, the National Insurance tax hike and expected council tax rises.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/17514990/electricity-gas-ration-cost-of-living-crisis/
‘It’s awesome in the core!’ (kurt)
perhaps the UK is on the way out of the Core.
sooner or later.
I hope it’s later, but hope doesn’t seem to move the dial.
who’s joining the Collapse Club?
CoreBAU tonight, baby!
Britain has a real problem with the high energy prices and lack of adequate supply. This cannot end well!
Imagine no heating during winter in the UK….
It isn’t that bad. We barely get any frosts anymore here in the not-so-frozen north of England. If I were in Canada or Siberia I’d be worried about not having heating, but here it would be miserable but survivable.
Strangely Boris is in first position to want a confrontation in Ukraine.
Only because he thinks the US has his back.
norm . reaping what you sow . hahahahahaha more boosters ya?
Anhydrous Hits All-Time-High Price Record at $1,492
LINCOLN, Neb. (DTN) — Most retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN continued to rise during the fourth week of January, while several of them continued to hit all-time highs.
Seven of the eight major fertilizers were slightly higher, although none of them saw significant increases as determined by DTN to be 5% or more.
Anhydrous led all fertilizers with a 4% spike, reaching at an all-time high $1,492 per ton, a jump from $1,433 the prior week. UAN28 saw a 3% jump to an all-time-high price of $601/ton, shattering the previous high of $585/ton. UAN32 continued its record pace this week, coming in at $699/ton, an increase of about 2% and also an all-time high.
After hitting the $800/ton level for the first since March 2012 last week, 10-34-0 increased by about 2% to $817/ton.
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2022/02/01/anhydrous-shatters-time-high-price-1
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/covid-19/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-142-cases-govt-cuts-booster-gap-to-three-months-3m-kiwis-now-eligible/
Booster shots… come get your booster shots https://www.tiktok.com/@youvegot2bekidding/video/7052092917552516398
The possibility of eternal inflation.
And the continous logistic disruptions.
Inflation will get exponentially worse in multiple sectors.
Like the fuel and energy sectors, with prices that keeps going up, which feed the inflation, the shortage, everything. Energy is what keep any type of system alive.
HSBC now talks the things I have been mentioning for weeks, how China (stupid) Covid policy threatens any type of global recovery, it’s compounding stress into the system, intensifying shortages, and it is creating quite a few tipping points that many will realize 12-18 weeks down the road. Which is also affecting the chip shortage… something I warned about…over…and over…
Another piece talking about conflict in Ukraine and it’s (systemic) impacts.
https://worldedge.substack.com/p/the-possibility-of-eternal-inflation
Interesting! HSBC is a big Chinese bank. It would be quite aware that shutdowns cause recession. They also give an excuse for more debt. The latter might be the motive for the shutdowns.
Canadian farmers break through police barricades to support Truckers who blocked the US CANADA highway.
https://twitter.com/beingrealmac/status/1488638707565580293
This is hilarious!
https://twitter.com/PapiTrumpo/status/1488598804962193417
Ahahahah
Moving into the core…
https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2022/01/31/man-smashes-windows-at-12-businesses-during-downtown-rampage?utm_source=express-2022-02-01&fbclid=IwAR28OqVdI98nKScWHi-lqPaPYeZLrRGUKKMwgIwPLHqWd5t35M5q3bCoNrM
This seems to be in California.
The Great Escape from California…I wonder why?…
Why are so many San Franciscans moving to Montana?
A large share of Montanans’ frustration with incoming Californians appears to be economically based. From January 2020 through December 2021, home prices in Montana increased by 39% — the fourth-largest increase, by percentage, of any state over that time period.
“It’s insanity,” said Kelly Martin, a real estate agent at Windermere’s downtown Bozeman office. “Half the homes in Bozeman are well over a million and that’s definitely the out-of-staters coming in and paying cash…People born and raised in Montana, it’s almost like they’re completely priced out.”
He said that while the state is building homes “as fast as they can,” shortages of both homebuilding materials and construction workers have slowed the process down, further contributing to the low supply.
“There’s rows of houses that can’t be listed because they can’t get refrigerators in, or stoves. A lot of them are selling with no garage doors, just plywood [over the garages],” he said.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/Data-shows-that-Montana-has-surged-in-popularity-16811723.php
Chilean gangs responsible for dozens of burglaries target Atherton homes, police chief says
https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/02/01/chilean-gangs-target-atherton-homes-police-chief-says/
Brazen gang of thieves – who don’t even bother covering their faces – raid an Ulta Beauty salon in crime-plagued LA where woke DA refuses to prosecute shoplifters
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10440971/Brazen-gang-thieves-raid-Ultra-Beauty-store-crime-plagued-California.html
Those were the days!
Time to build a wall….. and make Calif. pay for it.
Yes. The San Francisco Bay Area Peninsula. Palo Alto is the site of Stanford University where Silicon Valley got started.
https://search.aol.com/aol/image?q=san+francisco+bay+area+peninsula+map&s_it=img-ans&v_t=webmail-searchbox&fr=webmail-searchbox&imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Factiverain.com%2Fimage_store%2Fuploads%2F6%2F5%2F9%2F6%2F3%2Far135261561436956.png#id=1&iurl=http%3A%2F%2Factiverain.com%2Fimage_store%2Fuploads%2F6%2F5%2F9%2F6%2F3%2Far135261561436956.png&action=click
do you know the way to San Jose?
We need more of this – but we also need video
Watch?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1488535831849705478
amazing.
the combined truck horns are blending like a spontaneous minimalist music.
the sound is utterly amazing.
no sarc.
it almost makes me want to go to Ottawa and hear it live and in person.
That is Awesome! Go Truckers!!!
Allah Akbar!!!
What do you think norm?
I can lend you my hockey kit since I no longer need it….
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=369827024721420&extid=NS-UNK-UNK-UNK-AN_GK0T-GK1C&ref=sharing
Real Covid numbers from Australia’s largest state. 76 percent of deaths since mid-January are in the vaccinated. Deaths in the boosted are soaring.
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/real-covid-numbers-from-australias/comments
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffb022f85-0dcb-43c2-a9fe-f141b48412c4_1170x1370.jpeg
If it’s all about $$$ then … why would the CCP accept a pittance from Big Pharma when they have huge ownership of the tourism industry in China — and it is getting crushed.
China’s tourism sector, with a market size of about US$1 trillion, was once an important driver of economic growth. The industry also employs at least 30 million people.
In 2019, about 415 million Chinese people took trips during the holiday. Their number trickled to near zero in 2020, when the coronavirus outbreak resulted in strict lockdowns nationwide. Last year, the domestic travel industry served 256 million tourists during the holiday.
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3165503/mainland-chinese-hotels-hopes-lunar-new-year-boom-dashed?module=storypackage&pgtype=homepage
There were also quite a number of foreign visitors to China. I am sure this is way down as well. This also hurts economic growth fro China.
Nobody really wants to make it better. None of you even believe it can be better.
Half the people want desperately to deny that there is even a problem or that that problem is all that bad, and the other half is fully committed to believing that it is just how it is and nothing can be done. We all suck!
99.99% of people have no interest in understanding how we really got to this point nor do they want to believe that it could have been different or that we could change and become a caring, better people.
Most people believe that we are all just bad and there has never been any example of goodness that might serve as an example for us to build on.
This is all defeatist BULLSHIT!! And totally incorrect. But try as I might over the last 15 – 20 years people will not be dissuaded. For some unknown reason we only accept the worst of what we may be and reject ANY possibility of being better.
I am certain that there will be several comments explaining how that is just how it is, how it has always been this way, and how it will always be this way. BULLSHIT! That attitude and that attitude alone is why we are totally FVCKED!
Easiest thing in the world…just stop what we are doing and focus ALL our efforts on making sure everyone is OK. (What? FvCK that! I have a life mother fvcker. You can get poor all you want but I am keeping all of mine!”. Well we will see how that works out for you all real soon.
Oh and fast ed – You are full of shit. Yes we used to walk around in loincloths, bonk our women on the head and drag them to the cave for sex. Does that mean that that kind of behavior is reasonable and we should accept it as normal? Your reasoning for bad behavior is infantile and ignorant but then I guess that is what you are going for.
Hahahaha… nicely done… very funny.
No we don’t bonk women in the head… or drive them into starvation
We are so much ‘better’ now we have industrial calibre war machines … and we deploy them to bonk women and men and children on the head… by the thousands …. so that we can Live Large…
So that we can have well-paid jobs… and fridge full of food… and pizza delivery… and mobile phones… and computers… and cars… and big houses… and more computers… and let’s not forget that family vacation! – after all we need that because we are so stressed as we struggle to survive…
More mobile phones… and Teevees… one in all the rooms … and more mobile phones.. and more data… and more p orn … and more Kim and Paris… and concerts – yes we need concerts… and cinemas and some of us like going round and round on ski lifts… or on roller coasters… we so enjoy just doing stuff for the fun of it!
But make no mistake… this can only happen … because we rain down terror on anyone who dares to say ‘can I have some … not much … just a little… please’
https://news.images.itv.com/image/file/939702/img.jpg
https://www.greanvillepost.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/YemeniChildren_dead.jpg
Take a good look at these photos Jef… you had a hand in that.
Let me save you a trip to the grocery store… and who carries coins around these days … https://www.oxfamamerica.org/donate/
Innate Immune Suppression by SARS-CoV-2 mRNAVaccinations: The role of G-quadruplexes, exosomes and microRNAs
Stephanie Seneff, Greg Nigh, Anthony M. Kyriakopoulos, and Peter A McCullough
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357994624_Innate_Immune_Suppression_by_SARS-CoV-2_mRNA_Vaccinations_The_role_of_G-quadruplexes_exosomes_and_microRNAs
I notice that this has not yet been peer reviewed. I also notice that the last part of the abstract says:
Illinois Demoncrat Rep. Calls For “Quarantine To Observe” Those Refusing Vaccines
If HB 4640 were to become law, persons exposed to an infectious disease could be placed under Public Health Department observation, only possible in a contained atmosphere with Department watch guards, some suggest such as a concentration camp.
The bill says:
To prevent the spread of a dangerously contagious or infectious disease, the [Public Health] Department may, pursuant to the provisions of subsection (c) of this Section, isolate or quarantine persons whose refusal to undergo observation and monitoring results in uncertainty regarding whether he or she has been exposed to or is infected with a dangerously contagious or infectious disease or otherwise poses a danger to the public’s health.
HB 4640 would also set up a state network data collection system for persons that have received mandated vaccines, medications, or otherwise.
Conroy’s measure is to be heard this week.
https://www.illinoisreview.com/illinoisreview/2022/01/democrat-rep-calls-for-quarantine-to-observe-those-refusing-vaccines.html#new_tab
Let’s hope this doesn’t pass.
37-Year-Old Man Suffers Severe Brain Rupture and Cardiac Arrest After Receiving Booster Shot of Moderna Vaccine- Life Support to be Removed
Om’s sister, went on social media asking for help to save his brother. Read her statement below:
Dear Indian Authorities, my brother (37 year old) is on life support in Oakville Trafalgar Memorial Hospital in Canada. He has severe brain rupture and had two cardiac arrests. Following his booster dose (Moderna) he started feeling unwell. He proactively consulted doctors, twice, and followed all prescribed medication.
Medical negligence or not, he ended up on life support and doctors are now indicating he is brain dead. We want to have multiple consultations and try our best to save him. Now we are being forced to get his life support removed. We want to have a consultation from other doctors for any chance of saving him. He is still not dead and all organs except the brain are properly functioning.
In general, patients can be on life support for quite long in any country including Canada. Removing life support would mean literally killing him prematurely. His wife is 8 months pregnant. He is the backbone of aging parents. We really need vour help and support. Please I beg you for your support.
http://www.stationgossip.com/2022/02/37-year-old-man-suffers-severe-brain.html
Tragic story but it seems unlikely that keeping him on life support would solve anything.
I’d recommend he take another Booster… it will save them having to unplug the machines
“He is still not dead and all organs except the brain are properly functioning.”
Well, that’s something.
So he’s basically in the same condition that he was when he decided to inject… mentally… but his body is now useless.
Lets Go Brandon?
Man 8 month pregnant wife! I just forgot about my little problems. Very sad.
More Doomp*rn from Zerohedge (short article)
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/wti-dips-after-gasoline-inventories-build-5th-straight-week
Mentions OPEC meeting this week to adjust production
“The ceiling for oil prices further out will be a lot lower as oil giants will take advantage of these high prices,” said Ed Moya, Oanda’s senior market analyst for the Americas.
Translation to Gail speak – Consumers can’t affort the price levels that the Producers want or need.
The first comment says it all:
“No working or retired person drives unless they have to do so, gas costs too much under Biden.
The price of food is going to skyrocket.
The END isn’t near it is HERE!”
interesting to read again–and again
”gas is so expensive under Biden”—or something similar—same in UK and elsewhere
the conviction that our energy problems are political in nature
and political change will fix the problem.
Energy issues are, at least in the short term, affected by political decision-making.
Stalling or cancelling key pipeline projects and attempting to ‘transition’ an energy intensive civilisation to solar panels and wind turbines will achieve nothing but hastening collapse.
Maybe such behavior will hasten collapse in the parts of the world where the supposed transition is taking place, but leave more fossil fuels for those who didn’t try such a transition. (I am not certain this combination is even possible, because of how tightly inter-connected the economic system is.)
For example, Europe may collapse early on. California with its strange ideas may collapse. Maybe New York City and Boston will collapse.
i take your point
but i try to look at the broader picture
‘transition’ isn’t a decision we are going to make for ourselves
it is something that will be done for us
Yes, zerohedge has occasionally good, to the point economic data, but most of the alternative press are just ideological traps. Most dissidents spend all their time thinking that it is just a matter of ideology. I noticed however a recent ZH article about FF depletion. whereas, say, 5 years ago 80% of the people would say that there is plenty of oil, now 80% of the commenters (including at least one who in the past thought there is plenty of oil) understand that we are hitting hard limits.
Collapsing the economy may reduce the fuel prices, but it will leave even worse problems in its place.
Some relative rankings & comparison of US States with regard to deaths & excess mortality according to relative severity of lockdown and other pandemic “control” measures and effects such as %covid hospital utilization.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/grading-governors-who-locked-down-and-who-opened
Excerpts (Think of as an After Action Report – Lessons that NEED to be LEARNED):
“The takeaway from all of this is that tight restrictions had no measurable impact on COVID-19 deaths. We need to understand that key messaging to those at risk (the elderly and obese; if these alone were removed from the COVID-19 deaths, there was no pandemic, a mathematical term requiring 7.4% of all deaths attributed to a new illness), protecting and advising them to be extra cautious while the population at large continues to function.”
“The other consequence discussed here is lockdown deaths. There is no doubt that tens or hundreds of thousands of people died prematurely from untreated ailments, avoidance of healthcare out of fear of getting COVID-19, and to a lesser degree things like overdoses and suicides. Because of all the looseness in reporting, the highest integrity data point measuring the pandemic and lockdown impacts is looking at how many people in total died against expectations. If three million people died annually from 2015-2019 and then 3.5 million people died in 2020 and 2021, the increase is obvious. This is how we measure the pandemic and interventions holistically.”
“The burden was not on open states like South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Oklahoma or Florida to do better. The burden was on states mandating a bunch of restrictions to do better. If lockdown measures work, their results should be a lot better. Then we can analyze if certain mitigations are worth it.”
Fourteen months into the pandemic, the United States was +14% in all-cause deaths, meaning 14% more died than expected. Low-restricted South Dakota, Oklahoma, Florida, Nebraska, and others should have far surpassed locked down states in all-cause deaths. South Dakota was +17% in excess deaths since the pandemic began. States doing worse than South Dakota that locked down harder included New Jersey (+27%), Arizona (+24%), New Mexico (+24%), Texas (+24%), California (+22%), New York (+20%), Maryland (+18%), and a dozen others. Locked down states should have had far fewer total lives lost than those open, and they did not. In many cases they did worse.
Austria makes Covid vaccination COMPULSORY for all over-18s today and claims protesters objecting to the move are ‘very scary’ and ‘right wing extremists’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10463123/Austria-makes-Covid-vaccination-COMPULSORY-18s-today.html
Like i’ve been saying, forcing people to do something against their will never ends well for those who make the rules. Eventually people snap. We are seeing this more and more around the world.
It is only a matter of how long you can sit it out or simpy elimiate those that do not accept your will.
Just look at the previously existing peoples in Northern America.
Today India is in the news for the digital Rupee.
When you are bare access to finance the gutter is not far away. Something is going on here I just do not know what it is. Me thinks, I fire up my playstation. Or I drive my Truck to a far away capital singing koombaya.
On a (man) hunt, if you do not shoot the very first moment you spot your target, you will probably not see the game again.
In case you missed the point of a man hunt:
The man here is you and me!
There’s a certain restiveness in the air, but not a majority, and there is so much passive or even zealous compliance still.
The Spanish Inquisition (actually Papal) was resisted in many places, and imposed only by force. But imposed it was, and existed in full vigour for centuries.
Same for Bolshevism and State Communism which ruined millions of lives for decades.
A true mass popular revolt could end the attempt to use virus-fraud to impose Totalitarianism, but there are other very effective tactics in their arsenal.
centuries, decades
there is no reason to believe any freedom any time soon
I wouldn’t say that; with the exception of Fast Eddy’s CEP, the energy deficit, lack of growth and rocketing inflation have the potential to end all this rather quickly.
The lockdowns and medical authoritarianism are expressions of the excess of civilisation, and the excess of bureaucracy.
That can all end with the Seneca cliff.
Nazis. You can see why Hitler was so popular there.
Plan B (Plan C = hack saw)
WHO YOU ARE:
You are a foreign citizen traveling to Mexico
You have a valid passport
You will travel to Mexico in less than 30 days
You will not stay in Mexico more than 180 days
You are traveling to Mexico for pleasure, vacation, or recreational purposes
You are NOT going to Mexico to seek employment
https://www.mexicotouristcard.com/
Not so good. The UK police force is also thoroughly corrupt.
Corruption experts recently warned that government corruption in UK is now the worst that it has ever been, certainly since the mid-20 c, and that bodes very ill for the future, as it can be really difficult for a society to eradicate a culture of corruption once it sets in. ‘Quis custodiet ipsos custodes’ – who will guards the guards?
The Met Police intervened last week to basically censor the Westminster report on government law breaking with at least 20 parties held at no. 10 during lock down. And there are no signs of any prosecutions over Tories handing 100s of billions of pounds worth of covid contract to their friends and neighbours without the proper tendering, which is completely illegal.
They also absolutely refuse to hold the ‘royals’ to the law, and even to investigate ‘prince’ Andrew. The ‘queen’ has actually routinely changed legislation to suit her private interests for decades, which is complete illegal under British law.
It also recently came out that the British state colluded with terror gangs in NI to execute untold ordinary UK civilians, which were presented as sectarian killings, and no prosecutions are foreseen.
The UK police force is completely out of control now, along with the rest of the state. This story is sensational but it does not come even close to raising the endemic corruption in the British state now. Huge changes are needed across the board, and it is probably too late to halt the descent into state corruption now.
> Calls for Cressida Dick to go NOW as report exposes how officers joked on WhatsApp about ‘raping’ and ‘hate-f**king’ female colleagues and ‘killing black children’ with one cop dubbed ‘mcrapey raperson’… and NINE of them are STILL employed
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10463671/Met-Police-forced-apologise-officers-joked-raping.html
not saying SOME of what you say isn’t true, it may well be,
but the daily mail is the absolute worst source of credible information in the uk, short of Boris himself,
on any subject
The ‘left/ right’ are always telling people to ignore the papers associated with the other side. ‘Don’t read the Guardian!’ It goes on in USA too. I ignore all such injunctions.
I do not consider myself to be ‘left/ right’ anyway, which is a simplistic dichotomy, and I suspect that many of us here would say the same. I read across the spectrum, and I will generally use whatever is the most convenient source to hand.
fair enough
just offering a word of caution
no more
This is a recent article from the Independent. Much of the information about the royals was published in a sustained Guardian expose last year.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-corruption-b2002869.html
> Corruption experts warn Boris Johnson’s government is worst since WWII
Researchers say failure of integrity at No 10 could have serious long-term consequences for UK
Experts have warned that Boris Johnson’s administration is more corrupt “than any UK government since the Second World War”
Researchers at Sussex University’s Centre for the Study Corruption warned that the “absolute failure of integrity at No 10” could have potentially serious consequences for the UK if allowed to fester.
It comes as opposition figures warned of the “appearance of an establishment stitch-up” over an inquiry into rule-breaking at Downing Street.
The Metropolitan Police on Friday said it had asked civil servant Sue Gray to remove key details of potential illegality from her long-awaited report into the Partygate scandal….
i am in agreement with you
just wary of the daily mail thats all
Is this your professional opinon of a fact-checker? Or just the usual mid-week demi-god attitutde?
norm would be ideal as a fact checker… norm – have you looked at applying for jobs in this field?
Today is Biddys Day, heralding the onset of Spring in the Celtic and Pagan calendar.
It is also celebrated today in a Christianised form, which is also valid. Culture often exists in historical layers.
> Imbolc or Imbolg, also called Saint Brigid’s Day, is a Gaelic traditional festival. It marks the beginning of spring, and for Christians it is the feast day of Saint Brigid, Ireland’s matron saint. It is held on 1 February, which is about halfway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox.[1][2] Historically, its traditions were widely observed throughout Ireland, Scotland and the Isle of Man. It is one of the four Gaelic seasonal festivals—along with Bealtaine, Lughnasadh and Samhain.[3]
Imbolc is mentioned in early Irish literature, and there is evidence suggesting it was also an important date in ancient times. It is believed that Imbolc was originally a pagan festival associated with the goddess Brigid, and that it was Christianized as the feast day of Saint Brigid, who could be a Christianization of the goddess.[4] (Wiki – Imbolc)
Any thoughts/knowledge on motivation behind origin/timing of festival. Speculating on an energetic basis could this be an organized way of sharing limited food stores between the haves and havenots towards maximizing the survival of the community through the remainder of winter?
Any thought/research on motivation behind other festivals and their timing that might relate to energetic concerns or motivation?
That sounds like a reasonable interpretation – and to raise the spirits (affects) so far into the long winter.
The old Scandinavian pre-Christian winter festivals certainly had that aim, and even encouraged the scattering of grain for wild birds as a religious custom to please the gods.
A recognition of the dangers of winter and the extra care and effort needed to get through.
Biddy is also the ‘patron saint’ of farming – which perhaps ties in with that view toward the sowing of the seed come spring.
It was perhaps also a way of orientating perseverance through the winter toward the onset of the usual productive labour forms.
‘We will all be sowing our seed soon enough! Bear with it!’
In Japan, the traditional custom is to scatter beans by throwing them out of the doors of houses or at temples and shrines on Setsubun, the day before the beginning of spring in the old calendar, which these days falls on Feb. 2, 3 or 4.
The marking of Setsubun (which means “seasonal division”—there are four of them but the word has come to refer only the February one) was imported to Japan from China in the 8th century, but the Chinese may have gotten I from somewhere else, with India being a good bet.
The wild birds get a treat, but the ritual is supposed to represent clearing out the old year so we can get on with the new, and also kicking out evil and welcoming in good fortune.
“The old Scandinavian pre-Christian winter festivals certainly had that aim, and even encouraged the scattering of grain for wild birds as a religious custom to please the gods.”
Jul!
Yes, good old Yule in England!
Although we dropped the goddess Lusi,/St Lucy associated with the festival.
It IS good having Viking blood, even if their arrival was not particularly welcomed at the time.
Yes.
See also: Mardi Gras, Užgavėnės &c.
Reminds me of swedish pagan tradition called Lucia, it got accepted by christianity by becoming associated with the italian saint Lucia. Originally for the youngsters to fool around, dressing up in silly clothes, singing and dacing. Nowadays it’s very formalised and looks like this:
https://www.svtplay.se/video/33382950/luciamorgon-fran-tallberg?position=934&id=KyEpVP5
I understand that one can get ‘in’ with Catholicism by spending quality time with a priest… particularly if you are a minor… the best boys get to be altar boys haha
Last time I was in a church was 30+ years ago … for a wedding … and while I was ignoring the guilt trip from the priest… I was looking at the alter boys and choir boys… and wondering how they got those jobs…
Father Weinstein hahahaha….nice ring!
Nice and interesting news. Thank you.
You are always welcome.
Happy Biddy day! What language are they speaking? smily face gif
I will lift this comment from Norman into the open space, to continue the discussion here.
‘for most of that 2k years, we lived in states which were basically fascist/feudal in nature. We might have called them something else, but that is what they were.’
There is some truth in that. The ‘Great Chain of Being’ was the dominant ideological paradigm in the West for about 2000 years.
It was an all-encompassing metaphysic in which hierarchical society, like all else in the cosmos, was understood as a detailed linear ‘gradation’ (and pluralities of that) of inherent personal qualities.
So, the persons of different social classes, much like planetary spheres, and plants and animals, and indeed minor differences in social professions, were understood as due to the inherent and unequal ‘quality’ of the person. Everyone had their set, given place in the ‘great chain of being’.
That ideology has somewhat given way under capitalist conditions, in which the economy, the job markets and social status are (supposedly) much more fluid, and it seems possible to interpret it as reflective of the feudal (and earlier classical, slave) economic base. Orthodox Marxism certainly would approach the matter in that way.
It was the totally dominant ideological paradigm throughout Europe into the modern period, although we never, ever hear about it now. For instance kulm seems to be attached to aristocratic ideology, and even he seems to never have heard of it, even though it was the dominant ideological paradigm for 2000 years, and it is structural to his ideas.
TGCOB has its roots in Plato and Aristotle, and particularly in the Neo-Platonist synthesis that was dominant in Europe. The churches entirely adopted it in the early Middle Ages, and it was structural to ideas of Providence and eschatology as well as of social order.
In that sense, Medieval Christian eschatology was also a reflection of the feudal economic base. Similarly, contemporary ideas of ‘universal salvation’ also reflect current socio-economic conditions, and the accompanying ‘inclusive’ and ‘egalitarian’, ideological paradigms.
I will copy and paste some text, some time, on the matter, which will explain it clearer and at more length. Arguably, its core ideas around the evaluation of ‘being/s’, as gradated, remain influential, although they may be much deeper rooted in our psychological evolution.
On a side note, if you spare time I highly recommend these 2 videos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wm495xQJDfM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9X71GeLUXs
About the mentality that was the base for the conquest of the “new land”
Bonus View:
Vandana Shiva on “Terra Nullius”:
german subtitles but the interview is in english
Thank you, I am just going down to dinner, but I will look into them later.
The conception of the Great Chain of Beings reflects the nostalgia of absolutist idealists for a divinely ordered world. It’s almost touching.
Echoes of this nostalgia still resound in luminaries of ultramontanism like the fierce Christian and anti-bourgeois polemicist writer Léon Bloy, whom I have been reading recently with a pleasant mixture of enthusiasm and irony.
Some memorable quotes of LB:
“My anger is the effervescence of my pity.”
“Of the truths which embarrass him he thinks it better to remain unaware.”
”
“Cette année, pareille à tant d’autres, n’avait pas été l’année de la Fin du monde et nul ne songeait à s’en étonner.”
“Dieu avait chassé l’homme du Paradis terrestre. L’homme aujourd’hui chasse Dieu de toute la terre. A développer. (11 oct. 1909)”
“You are always on the right side when you are with those who suffer persecution and injustice.”
TGCOB was an establishment concept, and in practice it was quite flexible. It would be employed to justify whatever happened to be the status quo at the time. In historical reality, social status and even social forms had a certain fluidity, but the concept would be employed regardless to the new reality, as if it had always been the case. The concept of Providence afforded a certain amount of churn and flow in the ruling classes, but nevertheless TGCOB concept was maintained. In that sense, it was eminently realist rather than ‘idealist’ – it cast the actual real as in a sense ideal.
It was not about sympathy for the poor, but the justification of the social order. Each person would have their ‘virtue’ in their performance of their particular place and role in the social order, and ‘virtue’ would lie as much in the bearing of the hardship that the status of the poor would entail as in the prerogatives and relative comforts enjoyed by those higher in the social order. Their status and condition was given by Providence.
All had their being and condition assigned by Providence; even criminals and ‘witches’ were sort of included into the fringes of the given order of being – as somewhat ‘given up’ by Providence. On a theological level TGCOB structured ideas of divine predestination, that all are assigned their place, to heaven or to hell, ultimately through the divine Providence.
God was at the top of the ‘great chain’, followed by angels near the bottom of the spiritual hierarchy. Humans were at the bottom of the spiritual hierarchy, and at the top of the worldly hierarchy. Within humans, the king at the summit, aristocrats beneath, various social order down to the serfs, and then criminals. In eternity, the saints and the damned. All in the cosmos was ordained by God.
TGCOB is radically inegalitarian and authoritarian in its conception of ‘being’. The Neo-Platonist explanation has all of creation as a reflection of the divine being to varying degrees. Creatures cannot perfectly reflect the Being of God, and so they varying in their degrees to more adequately reflect the divine essence – that sort of thing. So, TGCOB and human inequality was traced to the act and structure of creation itself.
The Summa of Aquinas is an excellent example of TGCOB with its explicit discussion of the structure of creation and of providence and predestination. The concept is best explored through recourse to Medieval and early modern texts. I would not expect any contemporary ‘devout’ writer to have a solid grasp of it, or to reflect its spirit. It most definitely is not about sympathy for the poor, but rather a justification of their lowly status and condition. It is all about the devout acceptance of ‘what is’, not ‘anger’ about it.
Thank you for your explanation. Of course TGCB had nothing to do with sympathy for the poor. It was just another ideological weapon of the ruling class, later replaced by another one, when it was no longer politically viable.
The underlying cause, or force, (called it what you will) governing the social arena in previous times was the availability of surplus energy, or lack of it.
Until the 1700s/1800s/1900s (it varied according to where you lived), surplus energy was derived from natural plant growth and animal muscle.
ie–out of every 100 people, 90 grew the food-energy, and 10 people lived off the surplus. (give or take) Which is why you had a serf/peasant economic system. Those 90 people worked the land owned by the other 10, who took it and held it by force of arms over centuries.
they were the aristocracy, self appointed. they also paid the military.
Those 90 ‘energy producers’ lived in subjugated poverty, under a ‘caste system ‘ which kept them down.
feudalism, fascism, dictatorship–the name is irrelevant. If you tried to ‘get above your station’ and flouted the social rules, you usually lost your head. In England and elsewhere the death penalty covered the most trivial of offences.
which is why I wrote the piece on ‘Wheels’ on Medium.
Everything changed when the energy base changed, and everyone got a set of independent wheels
The availability of cheap surplus energy from the 1700s on allowed ‘democracy’ to grow and flourish for a short time.
Personally, i put that at only 100 years or so—1930s to 2030s, basing ‘democracy’ on universal suffrage. I might be a few years adrift–but not much.
Right now, access to cheap surplus energy is fading away, while at the same time wannabe dictators are offering to bring it back. ”If only we give them the necessary authority to make it happen”
look at that 2030s date again.
does anyone seriously believe our ‘surplus energy economy’ will be viable beyond then?
if you do–then good luck
if you don’t, then that is the point when our democratic system collapses, as dictators assume ‘authority’ to ‘solve our problems’.
‘Constitutions’?—forget it.
Soldiers fall in behind whoever they see likely as paying their wages. It really is that simple.
Energy depletion is going to make all of us desperate to survive. None of us know how we will react.
Democracy is the child of plenty.
Poverty makes it an orphan, and it starves to death.
The 90% were only educated enough to plow the fields, plant the seed, harvest and keep their heads down for self preservation. Now the 90% are literate, connected and somewhat informed (if you consider social media informed, still better then BBC, CBC, CNN etc). The 10% (more like 1 or even 0.1%) are going to have a much bigger job getting that genie back into the bottle while still retaining their heads. You state it is plenty that keeps democracy alive and I agree with that. But a collapse of plenty, the Seneca Cliff, will also make a controlled decent extremely hard to impossible feat for these elite to manage (it’s not the brightest at the top). Police won’t get paid, electricity breaks down, the army is in disarray, food becomes scarce… lets blame the talking heads.
If a bunch to truck drivers and their supporters can plug up the capital city at relative times of plenty then wait until driven by actual need.
Keeping a suppressed people down is one task, keeping and orderly reversal of freedoms, rights and privileges is going to be damn near impossible.
you more or less summed my anticipated future.
500 years ago, nobody knew anything other than the status quo they had
what were the words of that song…..
how ya gonna keep em down on the farm
now that they’ve seen Paree?
the only thing i take issue with is the social media thing.
BBC CNN and so forth have their problems, agreed.
but any odd flakes of accurate information tend to get lost in the the blizzard of nonsense on ‘social media’.
Seems Gail is right. Many pieces of the economy puzzle are falling to the wayside.
This YouTuber has a channel that is such..Joe Blog
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=L5ZnLtKIXGA
Evergrande 1billion seized by US Hedge Fund..
Been watching and we are walking on a tightrope…whatever it takes..
This may be the year of the END ..2/22/2022
The Angles are coming
https://stylecaster.com/2-2-22-date-meaning/
In numerology, the 222 sequence of numbers are often referred to as Angel Numbers. Also, the number 2 in numerology references the energy of duality, partnership, relationship and balance. The key lessons when dealing with the number 2 are generally centered around compromise, acceptance, compassion, cooperation and harmony.
When 2 is in sequence like it is in 222, this energy is super-charged. There is a call to approach life with more compassion, to seek better balance, to work cooperatively with others, to seek partnership when you can and strive for harmony.
The first video is about a Hedge Fund called Oaktree seizing the physical assets of Evergrande. One such asset is in Hong Kong; the other is in China itself. I haven’t watched the video. It is hard for me to believe that China would let Oaktree get away with this.
The second link about the significance of 2 in numerology has been posted because tomorrow will be February 2, 2022. (I am not sure I believe in numerology, however.) My one and only grandchild (a boy) was born on January 12, 2022. That date has a whole lot of 2s in it as well.
Hello, Gail, just posted it as an example of the diverse “beliefs” humanity created that has entered in the mindset of our culture.
Betcha one could find a few “experts” that would swear by it!
Of course , for a fee…
Congratulations on your first grandchild.
Thanks!
Vaccinated people are becoming crazier and crazier, expecially if they are old.
I think it is partially because media are creating an ‘hate environment’ and partially because probably there must be some king of negative effect on the brain of old people after three doses.. (the ones you now need to have in order to be compliance in Italy).
Having said that, please read: mother (81) hits daugher (57) with hammer, because she doesn’t want to have the jab.
https://www.ilparagone.it/attualita/la-figlia-non-vuole-vaccinarsi-la-madre-la-colpisce-in-testa-con-il-martello/
well
eddy told me not to get a booster
i did, and got a flat tyre on they way home
so eddy was quite right
Keep talking your book Norm and mocking the warnings – why cant you just say – “for me as an old codger with little left to lose and a society that no longer values the old for their accumulated wisdom (of which I have some, in some areas, but obviously not in all because I have yet to learn to keep my mouth shut in area I know not of) the benefit risk analysis is much different from that of a younger person – so on balance the chance that I die in a couple of months due to the vaccine is similar to risk of dying in a couple of months from the Covid – however for the youth different story – minimal risk or no risk death/disability by Covid is so small compared to risk of loss of 40, 50, 60 or 80 years of expected life span or permanent disability in a younger person via Jab side effects that only a crazy person would consider or advocate”
Watch the video – could be your children or grandchildren – but you appear to care not! Yes odds are small ~10 or 10^2/10^6 of incident (so beyond our perception without mass statistic accumulation) but multiply that by 40 to 80 years lost per incident and large # of young population and net loss of life-years via vaccine versus loss via Covid is overwhelmngly large.
https://gab.com/Willian_Blake/posts/107721311917191033
one must add a little levity to life
for me, that includes posting a link to a ‘doctor’ person, who insists that anyone getting a vax shot will be impregnated with metallic nano particles, and spoons will stick to your forehead.
I take it this is stuff ‘i know not of??’
especially as aforesaid wacko will tell you how to resist vaccination, for $525 a pop–ah now thats more real, wouldn’t you say?
Or that Bill Gates has some fiendish plot to control us all (at least those not killed off) via 5g masts.
and this is where I am not supposed to laugh??
I could go on, but feel embarrassed writing such nonsense.
if you feel a need to believe it all–then who am i to persuade you otherwise?
my book was first published nearly 10 years ago–and people still seem to find it relevant today
Never said you need to believe it all – but focus your mocking/discounting based only on the low probability concerns but ignore the high probability rational arguments – that is a dishonest and dishonorable method of debate.
Basically you throw the baby out with the bath water!
Just in case:
So the baby [video of players dying on the field as a visualization of the multiple 100s of % increase in permanent damage to our/your youth (death or permanent heart damage leading to high % shortened lifespan)] is ignored & finds silent dismissal in the trash while you are discarding it along with the more odorous or non-tasty bath water (5g or Nanographite) upon which you place all your focus and scorn.
So is it energetically efficient to require the intensive maintenance schedule for an old broken down piece of machinery near end of life to a young brand new machine? I dont think so! A higher frequency risky rebuilding with an unproven procedure of a ancient motor may keep it going…if it doesnt then no big loss – High frequency rebuilding with low/unknown reliabilty procedure of new motor may just permanently screw it up and then you dont get full life. Much greater loss and energetically foolish.
So as to your expression of “levity” – attempting to be a Jester is not effective when the message causes others to questions the underlying seriousness or motivation of the Jester. Your Jesting take focus away from the true concern and doesnt address the serious arguments that need to be confronted. A fearful cowardice laden presentation does not a true Jester put forth.
Other more effecting Jestering as exhibited in these environs is appreciated or tolerated because underneath it all it is directed at the heart of the oppositions propositions – fearless and courageous in its “levity”.
ok (and I only write this so that a few others might absorb some common sense)
so lets take another line—-
on numerous occassions i am told, in absolute seriousness, by various ofw inmates, that covid has been a man made virus, engineered to kill off 90% of human population, so that the remaining 10%, the ultra rich ‘elite’ (who i certainly know not of) can grab the remaining earth resources for themselves and live the good life, unencumbered by the unwashed masses.
Now, it would seem that millions actually believe this drivel
I am told, seriously again, that doctors are stalking children, needle in hand, ready to ‘enforce’ vaxxing
I was informed that Gates was infusing all vax doses with a substance that would allow tracking via 5g masts
And that Fauci is making billions out of vax sales–and on and on and on
and I must give due consideration to this ‘held belief’.—it is alll ‘true”—millions say so.
what else do you suggest, but levity.
i said right at the start of it all, that things were being done wrong.
I said then it was a knee jerk reaction, based on the death rates in 1920—about 50 million out of 2 billion.
we now have 8 billion. The arithmetic is simple and understandable. i am not qualified though to deliver workable alternatives–i dont think anybody is.
and the other big difference between 1920 and 2020?
social media, where a crackpot like Tenpenny and others can put together a ‘theory’ and have millions of other crackpots believing it in a matter of minutes.
that is where insanity lies, if you really want to know.
No what you have done there Norm is just cherry pick the extreme views.
A moderate view is that these new therapies have a huge risk profile that is not known in the long term and the short term is already showing very bad results.
Honest scientific debate is what is required. Both sides spin shite.
There is a very real possibility that the long term health of billions could be severely impacted by these shots.
Though energy depletion will probably have a bigger one.
norm will take that as a compliment
my book was first published nearly 10 years ago–and people still seem to find it relevant today
All 10 people who have read it … and it’s a rather weak attempt to regurgitate what Gail has written about for a lot longer – a lot more thoroughly… you are not fit to carry her water… and stop thinking you are in the league of Kunstler… stop kidding yourself norm… you can see here what most people think of you …
I bet that a near century of irrelevant life is the root cause here
norm wrote user manuals that have bigger readerships
“Vaccinated people are becoming crazier and crazier, especially if they are old.”
I think Norman has just demonstrated this phenomenon to perfection in his beating-about-the-bush squirting-ink-like-an-angry-cuttlefish responses on this subthread. But that’s just me.
Time for a superb song. From a maestro.
The whole world is filled with speculation
The whole wide word which people say is round
They will tear your mind away from contemplation
They will hump on your misfortune when you’re down
notice how norm wont respond to Australia.
Outstanding!
Half of 30 year old women in England are childless for the first time ever, as the fertility rate continues to collapse. Only 18% of women born in 1941 were childless by that age.
(The marriage rate has long collapsed, and only half of all UK adults are married. The Ofcom study last year found that the vast majority of UK adults resort to p/rn sites for release, spending 10 minutes and 20 seconds on average per visit, while another study found that couples in relationships rate their sexual experiences at 2.9 out of 10 on average. They seem to have gone off each other.)
https://www.ft.com/content/2928092e-1d57-4dff-9062-f66d8f64fb48
> Half of women in England and Wales do not have children by age 30
ONS figures showed that the most common age for women to give birth in England and Wales was 31, compared with 22 for their mothers’ generation
Half of women in England and Wales are childless by their 30th birthday, according to official data, as more delay having children because of greater labour market participation and rising levels of education.
About 50 per cent of women in 2020 had not given birth by the time they reached their thirties, marking a record high since data collection began in 1920, data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Thursday.
Amanda Sharfman, a statistician at the ONS, said she had seen “lower levels of fertility in those currently in their twenties”, which indicated the trend — of fewer women having kids in this age group rather than a reduction in biological fertility — was “likely to continue”.
The data showed that the most common age for women to give birth in England and Wales was 31, compared with 22 for their mothers’ generation. By contrast, [of women born] in 1941 only 18 per cent of 30-year-olds were not mothers.
…. Other drivers of declining fertility included a lack of stable work, appropriate housing and difficulties accessing affordable childcare services, she added.
…. Shireen Kanji, professor of work and organisation at Brunel University, said the rising age of mothers could challenge parental reliance on grandparents for childcare. Currently, the role of grandparents was “very important” in maintaining mothers’ labour force participation, she added.
The trend is similar across most advanced economies, with the mean age of childbearing in Europe rising from 27.6 years in 2000 to 30 years in 2020 — the highest of any continent — according to data from the UN world population prospects.
…. Kuang said the fertility rate in the UK was falling and separate ONS data showed that it reached a record low in 2020, mainly as a result of people having smaller families.
The UK fertility rate has fallen across all socio-economic groups, but it is in free fall among the working classes in particular, such that the highest socio-economic groups now have twice as many kids on average as the bottom 25%. White British births in particular have fallen by over 100,000 between 2011 and 2020, from 476,328 births to 359,519, so they may be talking about the white working classes in particular.
(The media articles suggest that all this implies the rosy narrative that more women can have the dream of a high paying job and a family, but the story is that births are falling in all socio-economic categories and collapsing in the lower, which is hardly the time to talk up such ‘ideals’, which seems callous.)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10456215/More-half-babies-born-middle-class-mothers-figures.html
> More than half of babies are now born to middle-class mothers, show figures
Number of births to women with poorer employment or no work is falling fast
Annual births dropped by 83,000 between 2011 and 2019, troubling economists
Marking a major milestone, more than half of all babies born in England and Wales last year were to middle-class mums.
The figures, drawn from Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, fly in the face of received wisdom that well-educated women are driving fertility rates down by choosing a career over parenthood. In reality, the birth rate among women at the very top of the employment tree – in the best and highest-paid jobs – is twice the average of all occupations.
But the number of births to women with poorer employment prospects appears to be falling hard and fast.
The data reveals that from 2011 to 2019 the share of births to women in ‘higher managerial, administrative and professional’ occupations – who make up the top three of nine ONS employment tiers – grew from 45.2 to 49.3 per cent.
The proportion has been steadily rising by about half a percentage point a year, indicating a real trend and not merely statistical ‘noise’, and means women in middle-class occupations are likely to have last year accounted for more than half of all births in England and Wales for the first time.
The picture is starkly different among women in ‘routine or manual’ occupations, or with no job, who make up the bottom four rungs of the employment ladder. Their share of births fell from 25.9 to 23.1 per cent.
Those in routine or manual work or with no occupation, who make up about a quarter of working-age women, accounted for nearly half the drop in national fertility – having almost 40,000 fewer babies in 2019 than in 2011.
The changes are set against a background of declining birth rates in the 2010s across all classes, albeit to different extents. Astonishingly, the total number of babies born annually in England and Wales slumped by more than 83,000 between 2011 and 2019, from 723,913 to 640,370.
This is not so surprising. I seem to remember reading last year, or the year before, that 40% of young adults in the UK are single. I never checked if this was true, but had no reason to not believe it. A fairly important point I would have thought, but not mentioned in the article above.
This article from the BBC, 2015, is a bit out of date but suggests 40% might be about right:
Small Data: Are 51% of people really ‘single’?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-31461595
“… So, if you’re counting all people who have never been married, or who are divorced or widowed, as being single, then that has indeed risen above 50% for the first time. If you consider cohabiting couples not to be single then it’s well below 40%.”
Yes, the latest split, for 2020, seems to be that about 50% of all adults in England and Wales are currently married, while 60% are living with a partner, and 40% are not (singles, which may include a few separated but still married couples).
The media does tend to frame the narrative in certain ways. For instance, they could have mentioned that the UK fertility rate collapsed as soon as legal contraception was made widely and easily available in 1967, and that over 10 million abortions have been performed in Britain since that was legalised in 1968.
They prefer to talk about women becoming ‘more educated’ and ‘working more’, although schooling and women working has been going for much longer than that, and legal contraception and abortion do seem to have been the key factors historically. The media are basically lying about what is going on. Also, they completely avoid talking about the collapse in the white British working class birth rate in particular, which seems to stand out as a stat but is not considered to be ‘relevant’.
It is a bourgeois, liberal state with its own peculiar and limited media narratives, that are directed toward reinforcing and talking up the viability of their bourgeois, liberal ideology. ‘Oh yes, women are all going to become highfliers and to have successful families – and they are better educated!’ Meanwhile, the birth rate is in complete free fall, particularly among the working classes.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/populationestimatesbymaritalstatusandlivingarrangements/2020
> Population estimates by marital status and living arrangements, England and Wales
Main points
Married or civil partnered remained the most common legal partnership status in 2020, accounting for just over half (50.6%) of the population aged 16 years and over in England and Wales; this is similar to the figure for 2019, but lower than the proportion seen a decade ago.
The majority (61.3%) of the population aged 16 years and over in England and Wales were living in a couple in 2020, including those in legally-registered partnerships and those cohabiting.
“Meanwhile, the birth rate is in complete free fall …”
From an economic point of view, a fast falling birth rate may not be good, as economists, politicians and the MSM like to remind us. But given our imminent future, I’d say a fast falling birth rate was a good thing.
Yes, in abstraction that might well be so, but the British state is constantly topping up the labour force from abroad anyway, and all population growth from here on is expected to depend on that. So, in the concrete situation, the collapse in fertility rates is not actually having any impact on population levels going forward.
“Net migration will account for all the population growth of the UK over the coming years as the number of the people living here rises to nearly 70 million by 2030 official figures show.”
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/migration-uk-population-growth-birth-rate-slows-b976439.html
41.38% of babies in England and Wales in 2020 were already to parents of an immigrant background – so the collapse of the native birth rate is probably not going to make any difference to population levels. Some of the workers will have kids, and the British state will get more adult workers to top them up in any case.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/datasets/birthcharacteristicsinenglandandwales
To get to the world people like Dennis L. want, several steps are needed.
1. A total totalitarian government, with no dissent allowed, and no opposition tolerated.
2. The stoppage of all welfare programs, good or bad. If you are sick and have no money, you are dead, sorry. No waste to spend on useless eaters.
3. Abolition of patent rights if the patent is deemed necessary for advancement of civilization. No lawyer antics for using patent tech.
Without all three, any futurist dreams will be just pipe dreams.
I don’t think that we can really get to a “happily ever after world,” even if the steps you mention are taken.
History has shown that strange, almost natural, events seem to bring economies down, when we reach limits such as those we are reaching today:
–Poor people tend disproportionately to get sick and die, often of common illnesses that are “going around.” Perhaps from antibiotic resistant illnesses, for example.
–A scapegoat group of society is found to blame all of society’s problems on. This scapegoat should be disproportionately rich (the Jews in the 1930s, witches earlier), so that if they are killed off, the wealth they leave can, in theory help those left behind. They also will use less. Today, the 1% could be such a target, in theory. The unvaccinated are, on average, too poor.
–Countries doing poorly find a minority to blame their problems on. For example, we recently have heard at least one commenter complain about the Maori in New Zealand. Someone suggested that they belong on a separate island.
–An increasing number of insurrectionist groups rise up, killing whatever group they become unhappy with.
–A neighboring country is more likely to attack, seeing how weak a country is. Even if limits are world limits, there may be fighting among countries, for what does exist. This fighting could be in new ways.
–Debt defaults lead to governments collapsing. Perhaps the next layer down of governments can continue, with fewer commitments. For example, in the US, Social Security and Medicare is becoming an increasing strain. If the US federal government were dissolved, perhaps state and local governments could provide whatever benefits they could afford.
–A bad weather event proves impossible to recover from, without huge loss of life, at least in some part of the land. Perhaps the problem is “only” that people with damaged crops cannot afford food. Now we are running into problems with fertilizer supply.
Kul,
I have no idea what steps are needed and if anything I posted implied that, please forgive. It seems humanity is in a pickle, there don’t seem to be any ideas presented which actually have a chance of working. I am an optimist but as a realist also accept there will be a number of uncomfortable challenges; such is life and thus it has always been.\
Gail makes a comment that we can’t get into the happily ever after world, etc. It will be a multi generational effort, but it is amazing how far humanity has come in such a short period of time, a few hundreds of thousands of years, the galaxy is billions of years old, patience will be necessary. And hope.
Dennis L.
It may be that some subset of today’s current population can be the core of a new civilization that arises. There are a lot of things that we really don’t know.
Don’t get me wrong. I actually like your ideas since you at least show a vision when there are few.
I am just detailing steps which are needed to get there. I wrote quite a few more extreme stuff which has been moderated away.
We don’t get to there by being ‘nice’ and ‘humane’. The Mark Rylance guy in Don’t Look Up was willing to abandon almost 99.9999% of humanity to get the select few to a place 22,000 yrs away, the monster sequence being added as a joke.
If anything those who will push for the programs you push will be extremely ruthless who do not actually give any other thoughts other than reaching the goal.
This view concurs with that of the Rev. Thomas Mathus, who lamented that unmarried mothers and their children should have to suffer so much, but thought that this was inevitable because being too nice and humane to them would result in complete social breakdown, although he never in his wildest dreams imagined votes for women, black people reading the news on TV, openly transsexual men in high profile administrative positions, or vax passport requirements for competing in the Australian Tennis Open. Some prophet he turned out to be.
Xabier, this is for you. Hope you get a chance to stop over and visit with these folks.
International Electric Company
IECL is an independent, British-based designer and manufacturer of innovative engineering solutions, with focus on wireless power transfer & renewable energy.
Headquartered at Harwell Innovation Centre in Oxford, UK, our team frequently presents around the globe (North America, Europe and Asia) promoting sustainable solutions and introducing our innovative designs, including CASSIOPeiA (patent GB2563574 granted, further pending).
Under the leadership of Chief Engineer Ian Cash, a key vision is to provide terrestrial and aerial beamed power solutions. Our longer-term aim is to enable grid-scale zero-carbon energy through IECL’s unique space solar power concept. We intend to provide gigawatt-scale renewable energy delivered direct to the point of need.
https://www.internationalelectric.com/about-2
For what it is worth, I think I have heard Ian Cash present at a conference. He is also on an email distribution list I am on. I didn’t have the impression that what he was working on could be a near-term solution.
I see from the linked website that there seem to be both a near-term and longer-term aspect to what Cash is working on. The near-term portion would beam electricity to places where it is normally not accessible. It gives the example of watches being recharged with this electricity, I presume in remote locations. I imagine this would allow the company to charge a high rate for tiny amounts of electricity.
you can drive cars over non contact charging plates, which is the same thing,
but i understand the energy loss is prohibitive
No one cares about New Zealand, population 5 million. In the Core, we have already written it off. FE – that means you. You and your constant ranting are irrelevant. And… boring.
What is the Core? Sorry if this has been answered before.
The big continents are the core, especially if they have their own energy supplies and other resources. The periphery is places that have to have everything shipped in.
It helps to have a coast however. Landlocked countries tend not to do well, because of the high cost of shipping over land. Also, the difficulty with dealing with all of the country’s neighbors.
Thanks Gail. Good summary!
Help Fast Eddy improve… would you like more cocaine fuelled adventures?
More of this? https://www.tiktok.com/@youvegot2bekidding/video/7052092917552516398
from zerohedge, “Farming Insider Warns The Coming Food Shortages Are Going To Be Far Worse Than We’re Being Told”
quoting a farmer, “As for the farming, I see it getting bad. Things like fertilizer and liquid nitrogen have tripled and quadrupled in price.”
“Corn for example, typically takes about 600 pounds of fertilizer per acre, plus 50 gallons of liquid nitrogen. Times that by many acres and thats a lot of money. Soybeans take much less. The plan for us, and most others around here, is to drastically cut corn acres and switch to soybeans. Problem is, there is apparently a soybean seed shortage because others have this plan as well. We were lucky enough to pre buy enough to do it. However, most people, especially younger farmers, or farmers where that is all they do, probably don’t have the money to front like that.
The way I see it, a corn shortage will come. “
Ethanol is a major use of corn in the US (40% at one time). This will likely be hit. Corn is to a significant extent used as animal feed. Indirectly, this could lead to less meat being for sale and perhaps higher prices. Corn syrup is another use. This seems to be used in a whole lot of US processed foods, even though it is not good for people. A person would think that this use could be reduced without great harm to people’s health. It might interfere with today’s systems of producing food, however.
The problems will be for chicken and pork production, specially for small farmers/backyarders, since surely Cargill is going to get its share of corn. Corn is very replaceable by a variety of small grains (milo, millet, oats, and barley), but I am not sure there will be a lot of those, they are fertilized less, but they are still fertilized. There will be a lot of soybeans, as the article states.
Does lower ethanol mean higher gasoline prices?
It depends on what price customers can afford.
Ethanol is the expensive part of the gasoline/ethanol mix you buy. It requires separate transportation and mixing. It requires a whole lot of farm land. It is made possible by government mandate for the mix. Getting rid of the mandate would lower production costs.
Of course there would be less in total, but that is a different issue. Citizens will cut back on consumption if the price rises too much.
Correct in terms of the long term effect – the dynamic will be upon severe shortage of corn a large number of dairy farmers & remaining cattle ranchers/feedlots will have to liquidate their inventory of excess animals – this means initially there should be a glut of meat (assuming there is adequate slaughter/processing capacity) it will be later in 2023/24 that will see shortages/higher prices for meat. Dairy shortages/higher prices timing will depend on how long reserves of silage and other feed stuffs holdout – large farms will ensile a year or more worth of feed at fall harvest – so I expect they will all be scrambling this spring and summer to find alternative feeds to stockpile in anticipation of corn shortages/high prices next fall.
Speaking to a dairy farmer I know – last year because of drought cattle ranchers in some states were ranging far & wide looking for hay – many could not find it so have been reducing herd size. Dairy production via herd reduction has already decreased some due to this competition and high prices for feed. Farmers also have option of raising fewer of the calves and culling less of the older cows (have to feed calf/heifer for 2 years before get any production – high overhead cost and feed that could have gone to provide maintenance of milk producing older cows)
Someone posted milk futures prices last week and noted how high they were – however dairy is a low margin business so costs (>50% feed) have been rising also. They just cant turn the cows off and restart them due to a short term upset (FDA doesnt stop doctors from giving lactation stimulating drugs to women, but not legal to initiate lactation in a cow using short term drug protocol – even when drugs approved for other uses – so once dry up cow to save feed cannot restart milking until next calf is born – same 276 day gestation as humans.) Dry cows use about 40% of feed of high producing grain fed milking cows and can use lower quality feed to provide maintenance energy.
This inability to turn production on/off in short term is why will see farmers dumping milk – doesnt take much overproduction getting to market to destroy price support (very non-linear response) and exacerbate a money losing proposition. Dairy industry price/production dynamics is very interesting microcosm in which see exactly the type of growth/degrowth/ collapse effects and interaction between consumer/producer as Gail hypothesizes as expecting for world economy collapse. Very easy to get to point in recession where consumers cant afford higher dairy prices yet due to high input & processing costs dairy industry cannot sustain at total revenue available at a price consumers can afford.
Many producers go bankrupt, milk gets dumped, consumers dont get calories, excess low producing cows (capacity) get turned into hamburger or calves not raised and turned into veal. Everyone prays that a new dynamic equilibrium is found as industry consolidates into larger more complex ongoing concerns to provide volume for the masses – some of embedded energy in defunct farms/equipment is absorbed via auction after debt is shed (like restart of shale well after original drilling company goes bankrupt) – some smaller concerns survive by finding high price specialized niche involving vertical integration, but this approach cannot provide for the whole and by cherry picking the more stable revenue sources exacerbate instability for the remainder of industry.
Eventually farms can get so large that actually past optimal size and get inefficiencies due to over-complexity that cannot be maintained or makes difficult to manage any slight upset. (only have two guys feeding 5000 cows using heavy loaders and semi-trailers and they decide to take an unscheduled vacation – or no delivery of fuel to run equipment – lots of hungry cows real fast) Slight perturbations in routine make big changes in production – stress and labor shortage induced mistakes and one cow on antibotics incorrectly milked along with production cows and have to discard a semi-load of milk or more (86,000 lbs of milk or ~10,000 gallons) Do that once and put on several year stricter regulation/observation regime where if happens again then farm is shutdown and milk will not be accepted from herd/farm until sold to alternative management or dispersed to other farms.
Thanks for your interesting insights on this subject.
I guess you can tell I find it facinating how complex and fragile the system is for such a “basic” good that the majority of people take for granted and feel like comes from a simple process. I have taken to looking at livestock population biomass as solar battery – non-refrigerated food storage on the hoof – yet still has an energy requirement for maintenance (must eat) – no storage is free. Many possible points of failure and tradeoffs between efficiency and robustness.
Also good example of self organizing system even when some regulatory structures are imposed. System has mind of its own – even when a farmer breaks out and finds a vertically integrated niche (specialty cheese or other retail products straight from farm) that entails high risks of a different nature than wholesale to processing/retail conglomerates and there are still limits imposed by the larger system. The economics of smaller scale simpler “more idealic” farming is near impossible within the wholesale market structure that feeds the masses if & while competitors with greater access to capital are free to expand.
Only where market restriction and regulation limits expansion into higher complexity does a profitable farmer have much of a choice as to the scale of their operation – too small and cannot compete on the input cost side and forced out of business. Canada and Europe place restrictions on size of farms and limit production – this maintains higher prices so not as good for low income consumers – but assures that well run farms higher chance but not assurance of profitability. While in US there are regulatory structures such that all producers have relatively equal basis for payment based on quality of product (regionally pooled sales such that all paid based on average of pool revenue – no bribing the distributor to take your product and shutting someone else out) the US approach w/ globalized free market production is always trending toward expanding within bounds of domestic and export markets and pushing toward systems that require higher levels of broad management expertise, more specialized consultants and more highly optimized processes.
Your point about things going very wrong, when they go wrong, is a good one, when the system is huge and optimized for low cost.
Very interesting insights and observations. I’m a relatively young organic grazing based dairy farmer with my wife with a prior life in mechanical engineering. I too look at cows as a biomass battery and in general take a thermodynamic centered view of our grazing dairy. I view my small niche as relatively safe in that our energy and other inputs are fractional and our pay price generally correlates with conventional milk. Barring rapid deflation margins look good for my families operation.
If there is a positive to the high energy costs i’d think it will eventually create opportunities for lower input smaller dairy herds again. Cheap energy and free markets drove non natural levels of consolidation and it seems to me that expensive energy ought to drive investment in less energy intensive operations per gallon/milk which are probably grazing centered operations perhaps coupled with new automation like robotics. The cost of transporting all feed in and manure out plus the large O&M bill i think will catch up. On the other hand it seems quite unlikely markets will be allowed to actually function if things break down…
Oh don’t worry about any of this … the hordes will descend about you like locusts… tear up your half grown veggies … raid your larder… kill and eat the cows… cut down your fruit trees and burn them… then rape your women and eat your children (before eating you).
I am serious
Interesting article by Ugo Bardi:
“How much does it cost to buy a scientist? Less than you would imagine, and it is perfectly legal”.
https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/2022/01/how-much-does-it-cost-to-buy-scientist.html
I would go quite a bit farther than Ugo goes in talking about, “How much does it cause to buy a scientists?” Ugo talks about research grants, from a company or government, changing the views of a particular scientist.
Ugo also says,
I would say that climate science is among the worst, in terms of corruption. I know that I have talked to young Ph.D.s who were interested in resource limits or peak oil. When they went to look for a job, the only jobs available were related to some aspect of climate science, or some attempt to substitute “clean” energy for other energy.
There is more subtle ways scientists are forced to follow the approved narrative. I asked one author why he didn’t point out some problems he found with renewable energy in the conclusions of the book he wrote, he told me that he didn’t think it would be what the publisher of the book wanted to hear. He also told me about an earlier paper he wrote that he slanted toward what he thought a “green” peer reviewer would want to read, because he thought that that would make it easier to get the paper through peer review.
Truly excellent comment, Gail. But the medical field in the West is still the worst.
I went to Ugo Bardi website to read the link.
He posted an article there from this link
Disputationes Theologicae
http://disputationes-theologicae.blogspot.com/
Among this article were others
The Dominican who gave Communion to Biden speaks
The intrinsic malice of sacrilegious Communion
Certain new “practice” in the light of St. Thomas Aquinas
Of course, buying experts can go and does go both ways in many fields.
We have all witnessed on TV court cases that have authorizes voicing their opinions.
One must go to the source and examine the evidence and data and do some legwork to get what is actual.
Doubt it really going to change the outcome(s).
As Gail repeatly said…we can’t really do anything about it.
What Do We Do With Old Electric Vehicle Batteries?
It’s a growing problem
BY TOBIAS CARROLL / JANUARY 30, 2022 4:44 PM
Jalopnik’s article notes, California’s dilemma is notable in part because its government doesn’t yet have a plan in place to manage battery recycling or reuse; this is in contrast to efforts from governments and corporations elsewhere in the world.
One encouraging practice, however, involves using old EV batteries to store power generated from solar arrays and windmills. It’s something that could answer a lot of questions, and could echo the growth of EV adoption with the growth of green energy. But it’ll take some logistical work to make everything come together.
https://www.insidehook.com/daily_brief/vehicles/we-old-electric-vehicle-batteries/amp
Yep, there certainly is focus selective thinking in so called solutions to our
dilemma of our own collective making …remember it’s not your fault as Gail likes to point out…helps coping
straighten me out here
an ‘old’ battery is junked because it wont store juice
—unless you jest of course, sometimes hard to tell on here
Battery packs for EVs degrade such that they only hold
a partial charge making them impractical for continued transportation purpose – however if looking at rermaining storage capacity/salvage cost repurposing for non-mobile use they are cost effective (in theory) vs capacity/cost of new non-mobile storage. Recycle of lithium batteries back to new lithium batteries is a myth – not technologically or energetically feasible at this time – one way to partially “recycle” or continue to use embeded energy/value of batteries.
Concept of “downcycling” which I just became aware of recently – recycling of materials only cost & energetically effective if the material coming out of recycling process is of lower quality than initial quality of the material being recycled. Consequence of entropy and energy to upgrade to higher quality/lower entropy state for low quality “ore” is greater than from higher qualitiy “ore”.
example – recycle of contaminated plastic not cost or energetically advantageous if trying to get back to quality of virgin resin, however if use contaminated recycle plastic to make product that allows for contamination (eg recycle plastic lumber) then MAY use less energy and exceed cost of recycling compared to competing products made from higher qualtiy inputs.
if a battery pack is re purposed to ‘do’ something else, then that something else cannot be to move stuff or heat stuff
therefore that seems to leave only lighting
i would suggest that if a battery is already partially degraded–its well on its way to useless
glad you said ‘in theory’
That is like saying that since a 50 yo is not as productive as a 40 year old they are useless and no longer needed – cannot be repurposed into anything – dont get me started on 80 year olds.
Again you ignore the thrust of the argument so as to talk you own book.
It doesnt leave only lighting – certainly can use to run stationary motors or provide heat within its capacity or provide load factor reduction capacity via soft starting – Know anything about load factors and or utility charges for high amperage motor starts?
https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-replacement/#jp-carousel-65299
If the pack with 80% capacity remaining determined to be unsuitable for reuse in car – (less expensive lower risk to replace with new part when factor in labor to make switch) doesnt mean the excess capacity not useful for repurposing.
Simple calc net capacity old battery/ salvage&refurbish cost vs net capacity new battery/ new battery cost (guess can do properly and do an equal life net present value calculation) after getting some data from pilot trials will certainly reveal if will work or not.
Your thinking is too limited in this regard.
There is indeed a large demand for lithium batteries with people who have photovoltaic systems providing electricity. The cost of new lithium batteries is 4x (guess from memory) of lead acid so $4000 to $16000. Lithium batteries last longer and can be omost completely discharged unlike lead acid whose life cycle depends on not cycling the battery deep into depletion,
The demand is so great that people have taken to soldering thousands of small 18650 lithium batteries together to create a large bank. These small batteries are available in bulk at low cost and for some insane reason a large lithium battery bank can be constructed much cheaper that way than big lithium batteries.
Lithium batteries from EVs go for big $ on ebay and other sources and are very desirable for photovoltaic. I cant imagine it would be hard to get rid of 80% or even 50% lithium EV batteries. Where they would go after they are no longer useful for that is a good question. Heres a used EV pack for $3k.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/175055410151?hash=item28c21d93e7:g:MfsAAOSwy~hhsByH
The caveat with lithium batteries is unlike lead acid they blow up and burn if too much current is sourced or sank into them requiring failsafe current regulation. Its a very rapid exothermic release of the large amount of energy in the lithium battery. I would never bring a large lithium battery bank into a house but people do it all the time including the improvised 18650 solder contraptions. Only straight EV batteries work for PV applications the combustion/ev like the prius are nickel hybrids with very shallow amp hours. The majority of automotive batteries are nickel hybrids making the demand for leaf/volt lithium battery packs even greater.
Ill take everyone of those used lithium automotive batt paks and so would everyone else including the people selling them. Call BS on the article but as mentioned where the batteries go when they are completely depleted is a good question. With a probable 10 year life of a used lithium pak 2x a brand new lead acid pak it doesnt matter we will be deep into uncharted non BAU territory by then.
If there were truly a way to make money by recycling batteries from electric cars, we would likely see a large number of companies starting up with ideas for doing so.
Part of the problem is that neither intermittent electricity from wind and solar, nor electric cars running on batteries are truly a sustainable solutions. Adding a a little storage capacity to the grid will not fix its problems.
Also, recycling batteries for future use in new cars is fraught with perils. There really needs to be a contract with a particular battery manufacturer, to provide specific battery raw materials at a price that works both for the battery manufacturer and the recycler. I believe that the problem is that “making from raw materials” is usually cheaper than using recycled materials.
Not saying it is a path to sustainability – and not endorsing trying to rehab to put back into cars as that not in-line with concept of downcycling where recycle to a lesser quality of use can still apply and be cost/energetically practicable. But given that the poor energetic decision was made to upgrade lithium ore into a loser application such as EV battery packs – the fact is that potentially salvagable packs are an existing resource of relatively high energetic potential at lower potential cost that may be applied in competion with new sourced products.
Recycled plastic lumber incorporating contaminants would not be on the market (small niche application) if it did not have an advantage in comparison to new plastic lumber or “bio-based” lumber processed with preservatives. Similarly I wouldn’t count recycled EV battery packs being downcycled into less intensive but still useful application even if only on a piecemeal basis especially when they become more abundant – just starting to see them from relatively small population of beginnings of EV production.
Degrowth, if any is to take place, prior to or in-lieu of total collapse, will in large part entail “salvage” and repurposing where energetically and economically feasible. Poor judgement as to the economic or energetic feasiblity of a particular attempt at salvage will accelerate or increase probability of collapse.
The continuation of the shale oil industry can be viewed in this light. Assuming nobody went out with the intent of fraudulently separating investors from their capital (I know poor assumption lol), a huge number of wells were drilled at energetically foolish costs and stranded that energetic investment when economically the business failed. The excess energy of development is still embedded and now with a reset of time zero the EROI from the current state of the well/reservoir system MAY be advantageous. Rather than totally abandoning the remaining resource, someone came along and bought the wells at a pittance and thus with lower overhead were able to continue to extract while maintaining some level of cashflow before going bankrupt with a stock of DUC wells in their portfolio. Someone may try to recycle this infrastructure if perceive able to extract further with time limited positive cashflow to recover/take advantage of some portion of the energy, if any remaining, that was originally put into wrongly developing it.
The uncertainty as to how or if a material or resource system may be partially salvaged or downcycled and extent of application will depend on ingenuity and capitalization of those attempting the recovery. I see this as a major part of why so difficult to exactly predict timing and slope/rate of collapse. That doesnt mean we can deny the long term trend. As Zerohedge proclaims: “On a long enough time frame the survival rate of everyone goes to zero”.
When the only alternative for a research scientist is working in an Amazon warehouse, they must come very cheap indeed.
Female Truck captain first part of interview before we had to move on the street in the Canadian Trucker convoy; strong, powerful statements; please share
Canadian trucker convoy
https://www.tiktok.com/@drpaulalexander/video/7059623005613313286
These videos can be interesting, but it is frustrating that every app asks to open an account.
One cannot have thousands accounts..
I wonder if there is another option to see the video, maybe through Headsupster?
I don’t have a ticwank or twatter account but can open videos on both
Canadian Trucker leader I interviewed with Hodkinson, to tamp down reports of violence etc.
https://www.tiktok.com/@drpaulalexander/video/7059614179732376838
We have recently been treated to freedom-loving Canadian rock music artists Neil Young and Joni Mitchell and a few lesser luminaries joining the pro-censorship bandwagon. Which has been sad. But I’ve just had my attention directed to something even sadder.
Last year, Buffy Sainte-Marie, the Indigenous Canadian-American singer-songwriter, musician, Oscar-winning composer, visual artist, educator, pacifist, social activist and frequent Sesame Street guest, actually made a short video to promote jabbing among members of the indigenous Native American first peoples communities who would normally be a tad reticent to take white man’s medicine.
Buffy is a vampire…
Severe loss of brain cells is the real illness …
Makes me wonder if we should divide society into those who understand the issues with vaccines and those who don’t. Then build a new social order around that?
I think that people need to be given a real alternative to vaccines, if they are to turn them down. They need to be given vitamin D to get their levels up. They need to have a health care system that will use medicines (including ivermectin) that actually fight the symptoms of COVID very early on in the illness. If people feel that they are almost certain to get a severe case of COVID, they will opt for the vaccine rather than taking their chances. Dark-skinned people everywhere seem to be especially at risk.
Another possible reason for paying attention to Vit D that I wasnt aware of. Some (not all) limited number of cases of apparent dementia are associated with Vitamin D deficiency – my brother related this to me wrt being a contributing factor in his father-in-law who saw some (not full) improvement upon Vit D supplementation. A quick and non-extensive search brought up a number of papers on the subject going back for quite a while.
Just one more strike against those Medical Practitioners/Health Educators who fail to recommend, monitor, or stress importance of Vitamin D in patients/clients.
Thanks!
I’m very sorry, but this is the proof of a failure. That strategy didn’t work. The Country is at the fourth dose…
“Israel: nearly 230 COVID-19 deaths in one week. Over 67,500 new coronavirus cases, nearly 2,800 hospitalized”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/321509
On the other hand, I have it on good authority that “…there is no harm in getting vaccinated in order to fit in with the governmental views and be able to get around more easily than the unvaccinated.”
No harm at all….to the government. All a matter of perspective, really.
Boosters shots… https://www.tiktok.com/@youvegot2bekidding/video/7052092917552516398
“Junk bonds are increasingly adopting some of the lax terms from the loan market, a trend that investors say signals a deeper erosion in credit standards.
“Companies and their private equity sponsors have been weaving looser conditions into deals, confident that strong market demand will outweigh concerns.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-01/investors-fear-race-to-the-bottom-as-bond-terms-ditch-safeguards
More debt for borrowers in poor condition! What could go wrong?
“Tank bottom: topping up a depleted world could push oil toward $100.
“”Stocks of oil in some of the world’s top economies have fallen to their lowest levels in almost a decade and a drive to refill them could nudge oil toward $100 a barrel.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tank-bottom-topping-up-depleted-world-could-push-oil-toward-100-2022-02-01/
“Lack of investment risks pushing gas bills even higher.
“Delays and underspending on new gas projects could cause a prolonged global shortage as ministers try to protect households from surging energy bills, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/31/gas-bills-face-pressure-underinvestment-set-cause-global-shortages/
“Lack of investments” is just another euphemism for “we are running out of the stuff”.
Good way of putting the problem.
“At least 350 million people were impacted by power outages last year as extreme weather and the shift to cleaner energy sources saw more markets hit by supply disruptions, IHS Markit said in report.
“More than 4% of the world population were affected as regions with previously reliable power supply, such as Texas and China, suffered blackouts and rationing.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-31/global-power-crunch-hit-at-least-350-million-people-with-outages
According to the article:
Climate change is the standard cop-out, for anything going wrong.
Inherently bumpy transition to renewable to greener energies is far more charitable than it should be. The so-called “greener energies” simply don’t work on an electric grid. The more you have, the worse the situation becomes. Furthermore, trying to add greener wind or solar greatly increases need investment (as well as ongoing maintenance). The funds collected with respect to wind and solar generation are far too low, relative to the costs of the services they need. This is part of what degrades the overall system.
I’ve read and I forget where but we seem to be hitting peak phosphorous which is used as a nutrient for soil. Anyone know if this is true? Supposedly without it you can’t grow anything.
Yes, the guano deposits are long gone, and the last phosphate field was discovered in the 1980s. Still, P is very not mobile in the soil, meaning it is just a matter of making it available through biological processes. Areas of the world will be forced to go back to pasture. there will be more ruminant meat, possibly more dairy, but less meat and less grains. less people too.
Less people is a solution to many problems
Latest video from the ADVChina, Winston and CMilk. A relatively short video for them, only 22 min. They say 80% of all groundwater in China is polluted. And apparently those participating in the winter Olympics have been warned not to eat the local meet or they risk failing drug tests.
Advertisement in the middle.
China’s Massive Food Shortage Problem
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TD1ns3nvrq0
From one of the comments:
“I’m a farmer in the UK & have an interest in global food prices. It should be no surprise to anyone when I say that food price inflation is a big deal at the moment. Wheat prices increased by 30% last year & show absolutely no signs of slowing down this year either, other commodities are up to a similar degree. To that you can add the logistical disruptions we’ve experienced over the last couple of years, but the 300 lb gorilla in the room is the fact that there is a global shortage of fertilizer for the year ahead. Energy prices are through the roof, & fertilisers & pesticides are derivatives of petrochems, there’s estimated to be a 20% shortfall compared to the last few years. The overuse of toxic pesticides might be a self correcting problem (a silver lining to the mushroom cloud) going ahead, they’ll be too expensive to use.”
While the title of the video is China’s Massive Food Shortage Problem, the video is really about the incredible use of chemicals to try to get food production up. These chemicals poison food and water, and lead to high rates of cysts and tumors.
A Rare Coin Believed to Be the First One Made By the US Mint Just Sold for a Record-Breaking $12 Million
Andy Battaglia for ARTnews
Mon, January 31, 2022, 5:00 PM
A rare silver coin from the earliest years of the United States increased in value by $11,999,999 when a man from Las Vegas sold it to GreatCollections Coin Auctions, a company based in Irvine, California. Now valued at $12 million, the silver dollar from 1794 is believed to be the first such coin ever made by the US Mint, according to a report in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, and “was intended to help replace Spanish, English, Dutch and French coins that were in circulation in the country’s post-Colonial era.” Bruce Morelan, a business executive in Las Vegas, paid $10,016,875 for the treasure in 2013 and exhibited it across the country and in Europe before selling it.
In a statement, Ian Russell, president of GreatCollections, said, “Because of its significance, it was likely seen by President George Washington, Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton and then-Secretary of State Thomas Jefferson who oversaw the young United States Mint. Without question, this is America’s most coveted silver dollar, a numismatic national treasure.”
It pays to be FIRST!
One way rich people spend their money that involves very little use of energy resources. Pretty much a waste of printed money, but it makes some people think that they are superior in some way, to own such a rare silver coin.
Try Contemporary Art for silly status-signalling: a friend bought a twig – yes, a twig – from a top-rank gallery in London (Vigo Gallery).
The inspired choice of the artist made it Art, etc. Like those rocks the Chinks esteem, only more pathetic.
Well, the twig didn’t quite fit his new townhouse, so he asked the gallery to sell it on commission – and the Greater Fool turned up and bought the twig at a substantial profit to my friend……
The really new art is cultural landscape, along with all OFW’s ramifications for energy within cultural landscape form. Said he.
Amazing insights our most unpretentious host has wrought!
This article says we could be looking at massive food shortages around the world because of the price to produce fertilizer. Not too long ago it costs $110 for a ton of ammonia and today it’s around $1000. Ammonia is a key ingredient to make synthetic fertilizer.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/skyrocketing-fertilizer-prices-could-spark-widespread-global-famines-unlike-anything-we-have-seen-in-modern-history/
it is just about due to happen.
Turkey, Sri Lanka, maybe Argentina are in various stages of joining the Collapse Club, and the club will only get bigger every year.
sooner or later, even the Core will be affected, and things seem to be accelerating.
“accelerating” in the Core means going from a very very slow dull slog decline to a slightly less slow dull slog decline.
a black swan could break IC very quickly, but by definition black swans are very rare.
However, it is very possible that the price will also fall again. Just as with oil, gas, etc., it cannot and will not (be able to) be so expensive permanently.
You understand that food prices are the most inelastic prices out there, right?
People dying from starvation could certainly push demand and prices down.
It seems… BAU is .. no longer viable
I believe the coming food shortages next summer-fall will be the “slow moving” black swan event that pushes more countries into collapse mode.The large scale effects of starvation will increase illness, deaths and supply chain disruptions. The coming food crisis is a direct result of the FF shortage crisis. Political instability and war will result. Chaos will spread with increased and more desperate migration…only migrating will no longer insure you being fed better, particularly in Europe.
A couple of weeks ago the Agriculture Minster for Sri Lanka warned the country that food shortages were on the way. He was fired about 5 hours later. Seems to be part of the global agenda – keep quiet about the coming food shortages, or for some people, shortages already here.
I am afraid that this is what happens. If you don’t like the news, shoot the messenger.
https://dailynewsbreak.org/navy-pilot-crashes-plane-ejects-after-vax-reaction/
72 hours after vaccine==> myocarditis => $100,000,000 plane turned into submarine
The most recent vaccine mishap involved the pilot of an F-35C, a 5th generation multi-role aircraft, aboard the USS Vinson, an American aircraft carrier patrolling the South China sea. The pilot, whose name has not been made public and RRN has been asked not to reveal, was returning to the carrier when the unthinkable happened: His glidepath was too steep, and his plane struck the deck without catching any of the three “wires” that are present to quickly arrest forward momentum and bring the airframe to a sudden, screeching halt. The pilot ejected a split-second before the F-35C bounced off the flight deck and tumbled into the choppy waters.
That much has been reported publicly.
The DoD, under direction of Sec. of Defense Lloyd Austin, has omitted a crucial fact.
Aviators approaching within a mile of their carrier “call the ball,” a radio transmission indicating they have spotted the “meatball,” a nickname for the visual reference used by pilots to keep the proper glide slope during the approach to an aircraft carrier.
As the F-35C pilot neared the USS Vinson, he “called the ball,” but also said he was experiencing sudden and intense chest pain, as if “someone hit me with a baseball bat.” The Landing Signal Operator aboard the USS Vinson noticed at once that the F-35 was above glideslope and would miss the wires. He ordered the pilot to “wave off” just as the pilot’s crackled voice said on the radio, “Fucking vaccine.” The pilot had barely enough strength to eject safely, though several boatswain’s mates on the flight deck were injured when the plane struck the deck.
While I posted the article link, I havent looked around to see if this reporting has been duplicated elsewhere so we have to take it for what it is worth and heightened awareness for follow on reporting. Certainly seems plausible, although seems like kinda late in the vaccination cycle for Pilot to be getting a vaccine only in the last couple of weeks (although I guess they havent discharged all of those refusing and commanders reportedly have been trying to wear them down into accepting the jabs or could have been a required booster or second jab in late adopter?)
What kinda crazy flight surgeon would have allowed Pilot to fly in the first several weeks after getting a jab given risk of short term presentation of adverse effect – this is what happens when information is suppressed! Makes MIC happy though – another $100M of hardware consumed.
Looking forward to see if any more comes out on this incident as well as any increased reporting of the huge increase (as documented by leaked military medical records systems) of the types of maladies that correlate with expected vaccine adverse/injury effects. (Attorneys for Military Doctors revealed this info at Sen Ron Johnsons recent “2nd Opinion” hearing)
supposedly Liar.com is owned by Elon Musk.
check it out!
http://www.liar.com
wooooooo!!!!!!!
Charted: $5 Trillion in Fossil Fuel Subsidies (2010-2021)
With energy consumption vital for life and business, governments often look to fossil fuel subsidies to make energy as affordable as possible.
These subsidies artificially reduce the price of fossil fuels and generally take two forms:
Production subsidies occur when governments provide tax cuts or direct payments that reduce the cost of producing coal, oil, or gas.
Consumption subsidies cut fuel prices for the end-user through price controls and other such measures.
Each year, governments around the world pour nearly half a trillion dollars into fossil fuel subsidies. This chart breaks down a decade of fossil fuel consumption subsidies by energy source using data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Breaking Down Fossil Fuel Consumption Subsidies
Since 2010, governments have spent over $5 trillion in fossil fuel consumption subsidies. The majority of this sum went towards making oil more affordable, as seen below:
,……
Why Do Governments Subsidize Fossil Fuels?
High energy prices can have rippling effects throughout an economy.
For consumers, heating and transportation become more expensive. And for producers who use energy and oil as inputs, the cost of goods and services goes up.
Often, governments turn to energy subsidies to keep prices down and encourage economic activity. Therefore, there’s a high cost to removing these subsidies, especially in developing countries where large parts of the population might lack access to affordable energy.
But fossil fuel subsidies can also have detrimental effects. By artificially lowering prices, they can encourage overconsumption of carbon-intense fuels, creating negative externalities through adverse environmental and health impacts. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, these add up to an amount anywhere between $2.6 to $8.1 trillion globally.
Despite these disadvantages, fossil fuels remain an important part of the global energy mix, with continued support from governments. And with energy prices soaring, 2022 could be another year of billions in fossil fuel subsidies.
https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/charted-5-trillion-in-fossil-fuel-subsidies/
The comment. Section of the article
5 hours ago
lots of misinformation here.
“Production subsidies occur when governments provide tax cuts or direct payments that reduce the cost of producing coal, oil, or gas.”
those are the same “subsidies” that manufacturers use. if you really want to look at subsidies check out the massive subsidies granted to solar and wind projects
https://www.forbes.com/site…
https://co2coalition.org/20…
https://www.aei.org/carpe-d…
https://www.americanthinker…
Mark W
2 hours ago
As usual, they confuse depletion allowances with a ‘subsidy’. Liars.
PaulScott58
30 minutes ago
While there might have some merit to the mechanics of subsidies vs. tax credits, etc. I will point out that exactly $0 have been apportioned for the health costs and the environmental costs of climate change. And in the case of oil, there is a massive military cost. So, yea, maybe the full subsidy discussed in the article isn’t completely correct, but the cost of two trillion dollar wars in Iraq, and ongoing $80 billion military cost/year exclusive of war, the 7 million deaths every year from air pollution, and the heavy contribution to right wing political candidates every election have a multi-trillion dollar cost that isn’t included in any of your calculations.
urpolonius nyet
2 hours ago
Figures don’t lie, but liars Figure. Most people forget the second half of the saying..
Thomas Picton
4 hours ago
Three points:
1. This infographic is sadly lacking in balance. Presenting government subsidies without showing how much governments raise in fossil fuel taxes removes any context. I look forward to a future article showing how much is taken in duty, levies and sales tax paid by individuals as well as carbon taxes, licence fees and corporate taxes paid by energy companies.
2. Another infographic showing the tax vs subsidy balance for renewables or nuclear would be interesting too.
3. This article considers a tax cut to be the same as a subsidy. Me deciding to take less of your money is not the same as me giving you money. Conflating a tax cut and a subsidy implies that all money earned by a company or an individual rightly belongs to the government and it is only by the government’s grace that they allow us to keep some. Some governments might behave this way, but that doesn’t make it right.
The subsidies are nearly all on the renewables. The subsidy of allowing the renewables to go first is huge. Renewables don’t replace electricity; the mostly replace the fuel that goes to make the electricity. Their value is very little, compared to what they are given credit for.
I’m amazed on the diverse perceptions of reality in the human collective consciousness that the cosmos has enabled. Perhaps it’s a survival mechanism in which those that make the “right” choice survive and others perish…like a bell curve …rather elementary, yet beautiful in it’s simplicity.
Yes, the truth is a pathless land, neither simple yet complex.
Hope to encounter the cosmos energy that has enabled the being before being enveloped into the nothingness of the whole
It’s worth noting that the Totalitarian system they are apparently trying to force us in to allows for no variety at all – total uniformity of behaviour and opinion.
May the Divine Light manifest to you, Herbie.
In the Core, life is awesome. We don’t care about all these countries going under. It doesn’t matter. And we don’t care about Scotland!!! Also, I’m tired of constantly having to scroll through all the FE and Norm nonsense. FE used to be somewhat funny but now he is just boring. Help us out please Gail. BAU tonight baby!!!
For how long is life awesome? We are on the edge. Pieces of the economy look more and more like they are going to break off and sink the whole economy.
Is China a core country? I think if Kurt was in China right now he would be singing a different tune…..Look out below! Timber…….!!!!!!
FE is kewl!
sheesshh
that looks like a lot of third person narrative to wade through eddy—not part of your old ‘medical centre ‘ routine is it?
they must be getting tired of your fantasies down there.
i wish i had the stamina to read it
but you know how it is with us old gits
Your time is better spent writing an explanation of Australia … and Israel
Whats the difference between coca and meth?
Meth makes you crazy certifiably nuts.
Coca makes you crazy broke and with deviated septum.
I worked with this gal. she came in one day was upset and i asked what was wrong. She went to high school with this guy drove past his parents house and saw him outside. Thought she would say hi. His parents had left him in charge of the house while on vacation.
He had pulled all the electrical wiring out of the house because the energy was trying to get him. it was in a pile in the front yard. All of the furniture in the house was in a pile topped by the rifles from the safe. He had fashioned two of the rifles into a cross on top and was preparing to set the pile on fire.
He was a nice guy in high school. She liked him.
Committed. Locked up in the crazy house.
Take all the stupidity from every More On in the world. One meth coca user is more stupid. If you are really messing with that s*** get some help. Walk into a treatment center and ask for help. treatment, jail, crazy house, die. Thats the options. Only the stupidest of the stupid Mor Ons doesnt choose treatment. Anyone who plays with that shit loses. They all think they can win and they all lose every last one of them. Thats a stupid more on for sure someone who sees that every single last person gets eaten by that s*** and does it anyway.
Alcohol can be just as bad. I stick with daily coffee and edible ganja once or twice a month. I like my lungs healthy.
A MAN has to know his limits. Stupid BOYS dont. A MAN knows how to ask for help. Stupid BOYS dont.
Scrolling is easy. Scrolling is good for you. Practice more scrolling and it will not make you so tired. FE is a much needed cleaner. Many forums would be better if they had an FE.
We need norm to plagiarize Gail … he can repeat the articles on his medium channel and pretend he thought of them himself..
Which we know is impossible – because he can’t even explain Australia
Well that’s a good laugh!
it’s good that eddy has found a ‘new word’ Art.
December january…anyone disagreeing with eddy was a pedophile.
Now he’s moved on, writing he doesn’t like (ie not written by eddy) is plagiarism.
the new eddyword for the month.—but it does make a change from pedophile, and eddy does need that vowel practice—i think you would agree?
”plagiarism”–the practice of taking someone else’s work or ideas and passing them off as one’s own.
which, by eddys definition, means literally everyone writing on the subject of energy depletion, and social upheaval therefrom, is plagiarising everyone else.
Wish i was a genius, to have figured that out.
REUTERS FACT CHECK
JANUARY 27, 202212:49 PMUPDATED 3 DAYS AGO
Fact Check-What we know about myocarditis, COVID-19 infection, and COVID-19 vaccines so far
By Reuters Fact Check
Recent research about myocarditis, a severe inflammation in the heart that has been linked to both COVID-19 infections and rarely to COVID-19 vaccination with mRNA vaccines, has led to heated debate online.
Evidence so far on myocarditis associated with COVID-19 vaccination suggests that the incidence of cases remains low overall. Moreover, when it does occur, primarily in young males, studies show cases are usually mild and resolved quickly.
Experts continue to assure the overall risks of COVID-19 infection far outweigh the risks associated to developing myocarditis after a COVID-19 vaccination, even in young men.
,….For every million doses of Pfizer’s vaccine, there were roughly 71 cases of myocarditis in males aged 12 to 15 and 106 cases in males aged 16 or 17. In young men aged 18 to 24, the rates per million doses were roughly 52 with the Pfizer shots and 56 after Moderna shots.
The latest CDC guidance states that cases have especially occurred in male adolescents and young adults, more commonly following the second dose of the vaccine, usually within a week of vaccination ( here ).
….A study in the U.S. published on Dec. 6, 2021 ( here ) that evaluated 139 adolescents and young adults with suspected myocarditis within 30 days of COVID-19 vaccination also found cases are usually mild and have a “rapid resolution of symptoms.”
This is consistent with another analysis by the CDC ( here ), which evaluated 265 verified reports in VAERS of myocarditis among 12- to 15-year-olds after COVID-19 vaccination. About 92% of the reported cases among this age group had recovered at the time of report.
European and U.S. regulators and the World Health Organization have said that the benefits of mRNA shots in preventing COVID-19 vaccines continue to outweigh the risks ( here ).
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention continues to recommend COVID-19 vaccination to everyone aged 5 years and older ( here ).
This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team. Read more about our fact-checking work here.
https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-myocarditis-explainer-idUSL1N2U72A8
See very scientific ….lot more to the article in the link for those interested.
Got to applaud the Corporate PR
But, why do we see all of the young men dying in sports games now?
Most cases are not severe, but clearly some are.
I was thinking about this during the Australian tennis Open. The players who perform at the highest level are ultra fit, often play games that last hours and almost all have been fully vaccinated. But I don’t recall one of them dropping dead on court or even off court. This is one of many fact-checking articles about the claims: https://www.factcheck.org/2021/12/scicheck-article-makes-unfounded-claims-linking-athletes-injuries-deaths-to-vaccines/
My guess is that current athletes dropping dead after receiving a dose is incredibly rare, with the vaccines being unlikely to have caused the death.
My guess is that current athletes dropping dead after receiving a dose is incredibly rare
My guess is that current athletes dropping dead after not receiving a dose is even rarer.
Any sports watchers want to chime in? How many athletes have you seen drop dead during a match or a bout (apart from when punched or kicked in the vitals) or a race prior to 2021? I’ve seen it happen to marathon runners occasionally, but I can’t recall any soccer players going that way.
with the vaccines being unlikely to have caused the death.
Unlike you, I don’t have enouth psychic powers to perform autopsies via TV.
“Any sports watchers want to chime in?”
I have followed a PL team all my life and was a season ticket holder, up to the point they started the discrimination policy against the healthy.
I have heard of(but never seen) supporters dying maybe as frequently as once a decade.
There were no PL games last weekend, so a much smaller number of supporters than a usual Saturday, but there were Championship games and 4, yes 4, in a single day and I know at least one was a (Pfizer?)heart attack.
https://twitter.com/FulhamFC/status/1487533396196827137?s=20&t=K0Pc8vAk_ERbSBeIm89Yig
4 in a single day, never happened in a single year before.
Concerning the impartiality of supposed fact checkers, Reuters CEO and president until 2020 James C Smith also sat on the board of directors of Pfizer, so definitely no conflict of interests there and your a racist, misogynistic n@zi if you say otherwise.
mike has no awareness of anything he doesnt want to see – after all his nitopicking of minor details others posts now he is “guessing”? Well as usual he is wrong
https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/01/23/deaths-footballers-dec-21-equal-to-annual-12-year-average/
2021 4x long term avg on field death rate during matches but 15x times cardiac problems during year
as for the tennis match maybe no one died during match bur several withdrew because of chest pains
mike is quite likely being paid by the post, and possibly even by the response to his posts: his “engagement”. I’ve seen his stolid idiocy and bland moniker elsewhere peddling the same tone-deaf nonsense.
Exactly. He also.used to have A link to his own blog, which was mostly devoid of content and appeared hastily set up to look legit. I note the link is no longer in his posts.
mike could make a small fortune if he would reply to Australia? Israel?
he wants to — but cannot
Mike is probably NZ’s very finest and most highly-remunerated anti-‘misinformation’ agent, licensed to combat anti-vaxx lies internationally.
A kind of 007 of the propaganda war.
Also you need to factor-in the PED such as steroids and EPO that all athletes use to perform at the top level in any sport requiring any power, speed, endurance or fast recovery.
Every single one is using PEDS – correct
Watching spectators die in the stands should be really uncommon, Ahhh; but if it does, it must be those pesky unvaccinated cos they have open access to such events right Fact check that.
https://dailycitizen.focusonthefamily.com/facebook-admits-in-court-their-fact-checking-is-just-opinion/
Just to clarify that Mr Roberts is dessiminating dissinformation here. Fact checkers are nothing more than media backed opinionists, i.e. government sactioned propagandists. So next time someone (like Mike) points to fact-checked article/paper/document be cool and point them to the above court case.
Or you could look at what is written and see if any reasonable points are made. I fact checked some of this myself, a while back, and found sufficient BS to convince me the whole claim was BS. Try it yourself.
hahahahaha… no. Nobody will read what you posted… because you post nonsense.
We have better things to do .. like mock you hahahahahaha
Facts suck!
alternative facts are so much better
4.5 min. video at link:
https://gab.com/Willian_Blake/posts/107721311917191033
“They’re willfully turning their back to it.”
Excellent summary. Mike, do you care to comment?
Well, there was almost nothing to check there, just anecdotes, opinions and video clips. Apart from one claim about swine flu vaccine being stopped after 50 deaths, implying that the deaths were the reason for the cancelling of the vaccination program. This isn’t true. “The US government abruptly stopped the vaccination program when no swine flu cases were detected outside the military base where the disease originated and when an unexpectedly high number of cases [1 in 100,000] of Guillain-Barré syndrome were reported in vaccinated individuals.”
mike – can you explain what’s happened in Australia and Israel?
The same is about to happen in NZ
Why?
What do we have in common with those countries – oh right 90%+ vaxxed
I would expect that this was a significant cause of the stoppage as well:
“an unexpectedly high number of cases [1 in 100,000] of Guillain-Barré syndrome were reported in vaccinated individuals.”
https://twitter.com/pfizer_news/status/482173575395172353?lang=en
CEO of Reuters on pfizer board of directors. Reuters is simply not a reliable source of information in regard to the injections due to this blatant conflict of interest however the disgusting hold of big pharma over the media and now peer revied research is just more obvious in this instance.
If you are interested in facts regarding myocarditis in regard to the injections you might want to acquaint yourself with Dr Jessica Roses and Dr. Peter McCullough research that has been illegally censored. Dr. Peter McCullough is a leading cardiologist and epidemiologist with over 650 peer-reviewed publications to his credit, he also happens to be a leading world expert on COVID-19, with almost 50 peer-reviewed publications. He is the “most published person in the world” in the field of cardio-renal medicine.
https://www.thedesertreview.com/opinion/columnists/beyond-ivermectin-censoring-medical-journals/article_b1089af2-4279-11ec-b491-5bcaf600d33c.html
THe paper” A Report on Myocarditis Adverse Events in the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) in Association with COVID-19 Injectable Biological Products”.is available here on DR Jessica Roses website
https://i-do-not-consent.netlify.app/
Booooommmmm💥 The UK government admits that vaccines have damaged the natural immune system of those who have been double-vaccinated. The UK government has admitted that once you have been double-vaccinated, you will never again be able to acquire full natural immunity to Covid variants – or possibly any other virus. So let’s watch the “real” pandemic begin now! In its Week 42 “COVID-19 Vaccine Surveillance Report”, the UK Department of Health admits on page 23 that “N antibody levels appear to be lower in people who become infected after two doses of vaccination”. It goes on to say that this drop in antibodies is essentially permanent. What does this mean? We know that vaccines do not prevent infection or transmission of the virus (indeed, the report elsewhere shows that vaccinated adults are now much more likely to be infected than unvaccinated ones). The British now find that the vaccine interferes with the body’s ability to make antibodies after infection not only against the spike protein but also against other parts of the virus. In particular, vaccinated people do not appear to form antibodies against the nucleocapsid protein, the envelope of the virus, which is a crucial part of the response in unvaccinated people. In the long term, the vaccinated are far more susceptible to any mutations in the spike protein, even if they have already been infected and cured once or more. The unvaccinated, on the other hand, will gain lasting, if not permanent, immunity to all strains of the alleged virus after being naturally infected with it even once.
Source:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf The first insurance companies are backing down because a huge wave of claims is coming their way. Anthony Fauci confirms that the PCR test cannot detect live viruses. Anthony Fauci confirms that neither the antigen test nor the PCR test can tell us whether someone is contagious or not!!! This invalidates all the foundations of the so-called pandemic. The PCR test was the only indication of a pandemic. Without PCR-TEST no pandemic For all the press workers, doctors, lawyers, prosecutors etc. THIS is the final key, the ultimate proof that the measures must all be lifted immediately. PLEASE SHARE
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
assets.publishing.service.gov.u
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf
“Without PCR-TEST, no pandemic.”
This is pure solid logic, and also the reason why Dr. Frankenfauci’s arch-enemy, the noble Mullis, could not make it alive to the declaration of the said pandemic.
As an insider famously said: “In politics nothing happens by accident.”
Without a test, we’d still have to work out what killed those 20 million people.
People have always died. There’s no significant increase in mortality in the last two years, despite all the anti-sanitary measures taken by the world government. This case is long closed and there is no appeal. Get it if you will.
Mike! Mike!
Earth to Mike! Come in, Mike!
As lovers of fair play, we are all rooting for you here. You have dug yourself a deep hole, but a cogent and intelligent reply to JMS’s point could rescue your credibility and prove that you are not Mike Robots or Mike Reboots.
Moreover, Our World in Data reports as of Jan 30 that there have been 5.66 million recorded COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Where did you pull that 20 million figure from?
People who have taken the jabs now have to justify to themselves why they have done it. Here in the UK, the ONS (under a freedom of information request) stated the number of deaths directly attributed to Covid was 17,000. Not the 150,000 the public was sold.
They were conned – pure and simple. I suspect more people will have jabber’s remorse in the coming years. Especially if you have allowed your child to have this toxin.
We are now starting to understand the harms these injections can cause, which currently fall under these categories:
– thrombosis (clotting)
– immuno-suppression
– auto-immune
– cardiovascular
– neurological
mike won’t reply … nor will norm
And they wonder why we mock them
One study, which was linked here, gives a range which goes to 20 million deaths. It is an estimate by The Economist, using OurWorldInData figures.
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
Look at the last chart shown. “Estimated cumulative excess deaths during COVID-19, World”
Chalk 20M up to gain of function research. Were talking results!
Can we get a fact-checked article on that claim, Mike? You know, if you provide officail fact-checked article I can freely counter it with my own opinion. After all we are civilized people here and we follow an established way of exchanging opinions.
“Without a test, we’d still have to work out what killed those 20 million people.”
Denying repurposed drugs and aggressive early treatment is what killed 19M of them we wouldnt need a test for that.
The comorbidity of 80% of them dont need a test to determine.
Since all of them were killed from gain of function research we wouldnt need a test for that either.
The devil is in the details of these “Excess Death” numbers. After looking at looking at some detail, I think I would call Excess Death numbers a guesstimate of the under-reporting of COVID deaths in poor countries, offset by some savings in deaths (expected by modelers) from fewer auto accidents and the like.
This is another link to the chart where the excess deaths are found. You need to scroll down to the last chart and hover over the lines to find the corresponding numbers. World numbers are shown, but a person can also get actual numbers by country by choosing different data to show. It seems to turn out that actual deaths are close to reported deaths in “rich countries,” but very much higher in “poor countries.” Somehow, the model seems to include “savings in excess deaths” in some countries, presumably from fewer vehicle accidents or something similar.
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
The first date for which I could find actual world numbers, not just a line, was January 10, 2022. This point includes some Omicron deaths. The numbers shown for “Cumulative World Excess Deaths” are:
95% confidence upper bound of range: 22.29 million world deaths
Best estimate: 19.05 million world deaths
Lower bound estimate: 12.02 million
Reported COVID deaths 5.50 million
Strangely enough, when I looked at the UK data, there were no estimates shown for January 10, 2022. But for January 3, 2022, all four numbers were identical! In fact, the amounts stay very close going out to later dates. The Economist magazine (which is behind this model) is based in the UK. I suppose that this might be a reason. An attempt is made to get other countries reporting up to the UK’s level of reporting, perhaps. The UK numbers are .149 million deaths for all four amounts, from reported COVID deaths to 95% confidence deaths.
Australia and New Zealand both show small reductions in excess deaths, using the Economists’ model assumptions, in spite of some COVID deaths being reported. Presumably, there were fewer auto accidents expected in their model, or something of this sort. The model for France shows estimated excess deaths as being less than reported COVID deaths, for some unknown reason.
For the US, the amounts are quite close together:
95% confidence upper bound of range: 1.08 million deaths
Best estimate: 1.05 million deaths
Lower bound estimate: 1.01 million
Reported COVID deaths .842 million
If we go to India, or China, or Nigeria, the range of Excess Death estimates is huge.
India — this by itself explains a big part of the world estimate range:
95% confidence upper bound of range: 7.70 million deaths
Best estimate: 5.21 million deaths
Lower bound estimate: 1.16 million
Reported COVID deaths .49 million
China is another big question mark:
95% confidence upper bound of range: 2.17 million excess deaths
Best estimate: .76 million excess deaths
Low bound estimate: -.079 million (a reduction in deaths)
Reported COVID deaths. 004 million
Nigeria:
95% confidence upper bound of range: .38 million excess deaths
Best estimate: ..25 million excess deaths
Low bound estimate: -.002 million (a reduction in deaths)
Reported COVID deaths: .003 million
The model needs to be understood as a rough estimate by the modelers. It doesn’t seem to look at underlying death data at all, for example.
Hopeum is strong..
Transforming an ancient industry
“We all saw the need to challenge the current methods of iron and steelmaking since they are significant sources of CO2 emissions,” says Martin Pei, SSAB’s Chief Technology Officer. He says it wasn’t enough to go fossil-free for production. “We decided to create an entirely fossil-free value chain, all the way from the mining, iron ore processing to iron and steel production, including logistics services and electricity.”
Pei says, technology could reduce Sweden’s total carbon dioxide emissions by about 10% — equivalent to a third of the country’s industrial emissions.
Fossil-free steel is currently expected to cost more than steel made by conventional methods. But Pei says the cost gap will continue to narrow with rising carbon taxes and falling costs for fossil-free electricity. He’s convinced producers and customers will get on board. “Becoming fossil-free is a challenge all companies need to take on, and that includes changing both mindsets, committed to a new strategy as well as developing new production technologies.”
Carbon from renewable sources
The raw material for steel is iron ore, an iron oxide. To make pure iron, steelmakers must remove the oxygen from the iron oxide. In conventional steelmaking, blast furnaces use coal as a reduction agent to accomplish the task. Carbon from the coal pairs with oxygen from the iron, resulting in carbon dioxide emissions.
The HYBRIT iron-making process makes it possible to skip the blast furnaces. Instead, it uses hydrogen produced from water using electricity from fossil-free energy sources to remove oxygen from the iron. The result is no more carbon dioxide emissions since the only by-product is water.
SSAB estimates in a feasibility study that the cost for fossil-free steel to be approximately 20-30% higher than traditional steelmaking due to the investments still needed to retrofit and build new plants and the currently higher costs for renewable energy. But a saving grace is that the process is more energy-efficient. According to SSAB, one metric ton of fossil-free crude steel requires 4100 kWh to produce, compared to 5800 kWh — 41% more — for traditional steel production.
https://techcrunch.com/sponsor/ssab/the-fossil-free-steel-in-this-vehicle-could-cut-global-co2-emissions-by-7/
Sure…retrofit and build new plants…build back better…Joe’s right 😃 on it…honest
We need cheap-to-produce steel, not more expensive steel. This approach gets us nowhere. It really has fossil fuel behind it, anyhow.
To make this work, I predict they will need to add another element to the mix—debtium, which will then have to be stored away safely in a deep underground vault so it doesn’t leak into the financial system and cause it to melt down.
Very funny indeed.
And the cheap to produce steel turns out to be inferior to the cheap-produced one.
A thought experiment.
Lets say you and your family of 2.5 kids (we’ll round it up to 3) live in the middle of the average middle-class suburb somewhere in the US. You are the father, very well educated with a very good 6 figure job. Then lets say that you have very strong feelings about the plight of the lower rungs of the economic ladder which you see every day all around you and getting worse. You see friends and colleagues no different from you losing jobs, houses, savings. You begin to understand how it got like this, and how the gov as well as the general population are complicit in this condition. You, as the father figure speak out about it, petition the gov, maybe even have signs on your lawn.
In response, the gov. Instructs you to cease and desist but you claim you are doing nothing wrong and continue to dissent even if only for your children future. The gov then surrounds your house and says stop. You hold your ground on principle. The government cuts your power, freezes your bank accounts, cuts water, gas, stops all deliveries to your house, and disallows you to leave the property.
After a while your children are hungry, starving. The gov calls the kids over to the fence and gives then a bag of French fries to share. The kids wolf them down. Gov says we will bring you each a juicy cheesburger tomorrow if you go back in the house and throw a major fit, yell, kick, break things, yell at our father to comply or else you will continue to throw a fit OK? Kids say “but what if he punishes us, spanks us, locks us in our rooms?”. Gov says don’t worry, if he does that we can come in and take over because we have the “right to protect” you.
Father doesn’t punish them but continues to resist. Cheesburgers stop, kids getting weak and sickly from lack of …everything. Mom can’t stand to see her children slowly dying and pleads with Dad, Dad says if we give in we will be screwed for life and our children will have no future. Dad is at wits end and gets his gun out and threatens those surrounding him saying that they are threatening the security and lives of his family and him. Eventually he fires a round in the air in an attempt to scare them off.
This was all the gov needed. They can now begin bombing the holy feces out of the property killing a couple kids and the dad, leaving the property uninhabitable. The mom takes the last kid and moves into a tent under the overpass and live lives of total destitution.
This is an allegory for what the US has been doing in some form or another to other countries around the world for more than a century. The reasons that the US uses for doing this are varied but never legitimate and often outright illegal. The US and local governments have also actually done this to varying degrees to citizens all around the country for decades.
History has shown us countless times that in the face of tyrannical governments people have only one option: to flee. In your example, the father should take the fastest highway to Mexico or the most discreet trail into the mountains. Openly confronting tyrants is only a smart move if the person is tired of living and wants free help from the state for assisted suicide.
JMS – So what is a nation being hammered with these same pressures to do? Pick up their country and flee?
Russia is being surrounded and cut off. So is Syria, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba …
Where ever any are to flee to will be slammed with ever more strict pressures for receiving the flee’ers.
No the only option is to end the tyranny. Or just leave it to our children to deal with after we are gone.
The law of diminishing returns can be considered a tyranny of physics, and politically it can only manifest itself in the form of coercion. Call me a fatalist, but I don’t know what sense it makes to spend energy fighting the second law of thermodynamics. In a time of less and less, the historical tendency always was for most of that less to be concentrated in the hands of the elite. Which is what what we’re seeing right now. And if this new order cannot hold “mere anarchy is loosed upon the world”, homo sapiens will be finished and good riddance.
I agree with JMS here. It is ultimately a tyranny of physics, chemistry, biology, sociology, and mathematics. About the only science that isn’t tyrannical by default is astronomy. And even that sometimes lobs solar flares, asteroids or meteors our away, and even the occasional supernova explosion.
When times are favorable for expansion, people are valued, and they are encouraged to be fruitful and multiply. Later, when things get crowded and resources get scarce—as is bound to happen eventually—people become a burden, a bloody nuisance, and ultimately a threat to each other’s existence.
From the late Dr. Albert Bartlett, we have the parable of the yoghurt bacteria that are so like human beings that they actually form cultures when they are provided with enough milk. But in the end, enough is never enough.
Below, Dr. Bartlett quotes from an interview given by Bill Moyers with Isaac Azimov:
Let’s look at the loss of democracy that results from overpopulation. Here is a portion of an interview that the prominent journalist Bill Moyers conducted with the eminent scientist and science writer, Isaac Asimov: (Moyers 1989)
Bill Moyers: “What happens to the idea of the dignity of the human species if this population growth continues at its present rate?”
Isaac Asimov: “It will be completely destroyed.
I like to use what I call my bathroom metaphor:
If two people live in an apartment, and there are two bathrooms, Then both have freedom of the bathroom.
You can go to the bathroom anytime you want,
Stay as long as you want, for whatever you need.
And everyone believes in Freedom of the Bathroom;
It should be right there in the Constitution.
But if you have twenty people in the apartment and two bathrooms, Then no matter how much every person
Believes in Freedom of the Bathroom, there’s no such thing.
You have to set up times for each person,
You have to bang on the door, ‘Aren’t you through yet?’ And so on.”
Asimov continues with what could be one of the most profound observations of the 20th Century:
“In the same way, democracy cannot survive overpopulation; Human dignity cannot survive [overpopulation]; Convenience and decency cannot survive [overpopulation]; As you put more and more people into the world,
The value of life not only declines, it disappears.
It doesn’t matter if someone dies,
The more people there are, the less one individual matters.”
https://rewilding.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/DemocracyOverpopulation.pdf
I skipped to the end of Dont Look Up… it ends with the extinction of humans
Oh come the f789 on … humans have been doing this to each other for thousands of years…
If it’s not the Khans… its the Spanish or the Brits.. or the Ottomans… or the Americans…
You do know that Imagine and Koombaya… are just ridiculous songs?
You do know that you live large … because you are getting a piece of the pillage?
Get your shit together. You are making a fool of yourself
It seems that this video from Antony Fauci is not anymore available on the web.
I think that someone might be surprised.
But it seems something in the direction of: ‘as you can see, I have said that, therefore don’t blame me’
You can skip the article and open directly the video, it is in English.
https://www.databaseitalia.it/anthony-fauci-dichiarazioni-della-pericolosita-dei-vaccini-covid-19/
Fauci talks about the possibility that a new vaccine will actually make new infections worse rather than better. He mentions that this is an issue that has been encountered in some previous vaccine attempts. This is why testing in real world situations is needed.
Fauci doesn’t say that the vaccine would need to be tested at length, so that mutations could already start appearing. With COVID vaccines, the testing that was done was way too brief.
As of tomorrow, Denmark admits the failure of all Covid control measures (including vaccines)
Denmark is 90 percent-plus adult vaccinated, almost 70 percent boosted. Plus the Danes have that legendary “high trust in government,” so they do exactly what the public health authorities say, double-quick! Denmark is Dr. Anthony Fauci’s dream.
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/as-of-tomorrow-denmark-admits-the
Going Full Mutant.
“All restrictions will be dropped – not because they worked but because they didn’t.”
They just need a new vaccine, carefully tailored to Omicron; 95% effective and totally safe!
That’s coming .. in March… 3 more shots
https://www.tiktok.com/@youvegot2bekidding/video/7052092917552516398
I know, can hardly contain my excitement: Dark Spring?
Bourla has hinted at ‘stronger doses’, too.
Just reading for light entertainment a novel by Hannah Rothschild, eldest daughter of the Bad Baron – 2nd-hand, no contribution to her royalties!
She refers in passing to the need of ‘Central Control’ to occasionally arrange a plane crash or ‘heart attack’ in order to show just who is boss when underlings get out of line.
Letting the mask slip a bit there, Hannah: RIP President of Tanzania & Co…….
Let’s just think of all those heads of governments tamely lined up on Zoom for Klaus Baby when the WEF inaugurates one of its annual meetings.
Isn’t it moving when the ‘whole world comes together’, just like Uncle Bill Gates wishes?