|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
We have been told that intermittent electricity from wind and solar, perhaps along with hydroelectric generation (hydro), can be the basis of a green economy. Things are increasingly not working out as planned, however. Natural gas or coal used for balancing the intermittent output of renewables is increasingly high-priced or not available. It is becoming clear that modelers who encouraged the view that a smooth transition to wind, solar, and hydro is possible have missed some important points.
Let’s look at some of the issues:
[1] It is becoming clear that intermittent wind and solar cannot be counted on to provide adequate electricity supply when the electrical distribution system needs them.
Early modelers did not expect that the variability of wind and solar would be a huge problem. They seemed to believe that, with the use of enough intermittent renewables, their variability would cancel out. Alternatively, long transmission lines would allow enough transfer of electricity between locations to largely offset variability.
In practice, variability is still a major problem. For example, in the third quarter of 2021, weak winds were a significant contributor to Europe’s power crunch. Europe’s largest wind producers (Britain, Germany and France) produced only 14% of installed capacity during this period, compared with an average of 20% to 26% in previous years. No one had planned for this kind of three-month shortfall.
In 2021, China experienced dry, windless weather so that both its generation from wind and hydro were low. The country found it needed to use rolling blackouts to deal with the situation. This led to traffic lights failing and many families needing to eat candle-lit dinners.
In Europe, with low electricity supply, Kosovo has needed to use rolling blackouts. There is real concern that the need for rolling blackouts will spread to other parts of Europe, as well, either later this winter, or in a future winter. Winters are of special concern because, then, solar energy is low while heating needs are high.
[2] Adequate storage for electricity is not feasible in any reasonable timeframe. This means that if cold countries are not to “freeze in the dark” during winter, fossil fuel backup is likely to be needed for many years in the future.
One workaround for electricity variability is storage. A recent Reuters article is titled Weak winds worsened Europe’s power crunch; utilities need better storage. The article quotes Matthew Jones, lead analyst for EU Power, as saying that low or zero-emissions backup-capacity is “still more than a decade away from being available at scale.” Thus, having huge batteries or hydrogen storage at the scale needed for months of storage is not something that can reasonably be created now or in the next several years.
Today, the amount of electricity storage that is available can be measured in minutes or hours. It is mostly used to buffer short-term changes, such as the wind temporarily ceasing to blow or the rapid transition created when the sun sets and citizens are in the midst of cooking dinner. What is needed is the capacity for multiple months of electricity storage. Such storage would require an amazingly large quantity of materials to produce. Needless to say, if such storage were included, the cost of the overall electrical system would be substantially higher than we have been led to believe. All major types of cost analyses (including the levelized cost of energy, energy return on energy invested, and energy payback period) leave out the need for storage (both short- and long-term) if balancing with other electricity production is not available.
If no solution to inadequate electricity supply can be found, then demand must be reduced by one means or another. One approach is to close businesses or schools. Another approach is rolling blackouts. A third approach is to permit astronomically high electricity prices, squeezing out some buyers of electricity. A fourth balancing approach is to introduce recession, perhaps by raising interest rates; recessions cut back on demand for all non-essential goods and services. Recessions tend to lead to significant job losses, besides cutting back on electricity demand. None of these things are attractive options.
[3] After many years of subsidies and mandates, today’s green electricity is only a tiny fraction of what is needed to keep our current economy operating.
Early modelers did not consider how difficult it would be to ramp up green electricity.
Compared to today’s total world energy consumption (electricity and non-electricity energy, such as oil, combined), wind and solar are truly insignificant. In 2020, wind accounted for 3% of the world’s total energy consumption and solar amounted to 1% of total energy, using BP’s generous way of counting electricity, relative to other types of energy. Thus, the combination of wind and solar produced 4% of world energy in 2020.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) uses a less generous approach for crediting electricity; it only gives credit for the heat energy supplied by the renewable energy. The IEA does not show wind and solar separately in its recent reports. Instead, it shows an “Other” category that includes more than wind and solar. This broader category amounted to 2% of the world’s energy supply in 2018.
Hydro is another type of green electricity that is sometimes considered alongside wind and solar. It is quite a bit larger than either wind or solar; it amounted to 7% of the world’s energy supply in 2020. Taken together, hydro + wind + solar amounted to 11% of the world’s energy supply in 2020, using BP’s methodology. This still isn’t much of the world’s total energy consumption.
Of course, different parts of the world vary with respect to the share of energy created using wind, hydro and solar. Figure 1 shows the percentage of total energy generated by these three renewables combined.
As expected, the world average is about 11%. The European Union is highest at 14%; Russia+ (that is, Russia and its Affiliates, which is equivalent to the members of the Commonwealth of Independent States) is lowest at 6.5%.
[4] Even as a percentage of electricity, rather than total energy, renewables still comprised a relatively small share in 2020.
Wind and solar don’t replace “dispatchable” generation; they provide some temporary electricity supply, but they tend to make the overall electrical system more difficult to operate because of the variability introduced. Renewables are available only part of the time, so other types of electricity suppliers are still needed when supply temporarily isn’t available. In a sense, all they are replacing is part of the fuel required to make electricity. The fixed costs of backup electricity providers are not adequately compensated, nor are the costs of the added complexity introduced into the system.
If analysts give wind and solar full credit for replacing electricity, as BP does, then, on a world basis, wind electricity replaced 6% of total electricity consumed in 2020. Solar electricity replaced 3% of total electricity provided, and hydro replaced 16% of world electricity. On a combined basis, wind and solar provided 9% of world electricity. With hydro included as well, these renewables amounted to 25% of world electricity supply in 2020.
The share of electricity supply provided by wind, solar and hydro varies across the world, as shown in Figure 2. The European Union is highest at 32%; Japan is lowest at 17%.
The “All Other” grouping of countries shown in Figure 2 includes many of the poorer countries. These countries often use quite a bit of hydro, even though the availability of hydro tends to fluctuate a great deal, depending on weather conditions. If an area is subject to wet seasons and dry seasons, there is likely to be very limited electricity supply during the dry season. In areas with snow melt, very large supplies are often available in spring, and much smaller supplies during the rest of the year.
Thus, while hydro is often thought of as being a reliable source of power, this may or may not be the case. Like wind and solar, hydro often needs fossil fuel back-up if industry is to be able to depend upon having electricity year-around.
[5] Most modelers have not understood that reserve to production ratios greatly overstate the amount of fossil fuels and other minerals that the economy will be able to extract.
Most modelers have not understood how the world economy operates. They have assumed that as long as we have the technical capability to extract fossil fuels or other minerals, we will be able to do so. A popular way of looking at resource availability is as reserve to production ratios. These ratios represent an estimate of how many years of production might continue, if extraction is continued at the same rate as in the most recent year, considering known resources and current technology.
A common belief is that these ratios understate how much of each resource is available, partly because technology keeps improving and partly because exploration for these minerals may not be complete.
In fact, this model of future resource availability greatly overstates the quantity of future resources that can actually be extracted. The problem is that the world economy tends to run short of many types of resources simultaneously. For example, World Bank Commodities Price Data shows that prices were high in January 2022 for many materials, including fossil fuels, fertilizers, aluminum, copper, iron ore, nickel, tin and zinc. Even though prices have run up very high, this is not an indication that producers will be able to use these high prices to extract more of these required materials.
In order to produce more fossil fuels or more minerals of any kind, preparation must be started years in advance. New oil wells must be built in suitable locations; new mines for copper or lithium or rare earth minerals must be built; workers must be trained for all of these areas. High prices for many commodities can be a sign of temporarily high demand, or it can be a sign that something is seriously wrong with the system. There is no way the system can ramp up needed production in a huge number of areas at once. Supply lines will break. Recession is likely to set in.
The problem underlying the recent spike in prices seems to be “diminishing returns.” Such diminishing returns affect nearly all parts of the economy simultaneously. For each type of mineral, miners produced the easiest-t0-extract materials first. They later moved on to deeper oil wells and minerals from lower grade ores. Pollution gradually grew, so it too needed greater investment. At the same time, world population has been growing, so the economy has required more food, fresh water and goods of many kinds; these, too, require the investment of resources of many kinds.
The problem that eventually hits the economy is that it cannot maintain economic growth. Too many areas of the economy require investment, simultaneously, because diminishing returns keeps ramping up investment needs. This investment is not simply a financial investment; it is an investment of physical resources (oil, coal, steel, copper, etc.) and an investment of people’s time.
The way in which the economy would run short of investment materials was simulated in the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth, by Donella Meadows and others. The book gave the results of a number of simulations regarding how the world economy would behave in the future. Virtually all of the simulations indicated that eventually the economy would reach limits to growth. A major problem was that too large a share of the output of the economy was needed for reinvestment, leaving too little for other uses. In the base model, such limits to growth came about now, in the middle of the first half of the 21st century. The economy would stop growing and gradually start to collapse.
[6] The world economy seems already to be reaching limits on the extraction of coal and natural gas to be used for balancing electricity provided by intermittent renewables.
Coal and natural gas are expensive to transport, so if they are exported, they primarily tend to be exported to countries that are nearby. For this reason, my analysis groups together exports and imports into large regions where trade is most likely to take place.
If we analyze natural gas imports by part of the world, two regions stand out as having the most out-of-region natural gas imports: Europe and Asia-Pacific. Figure 4 shows that Europe’s out-of-region natural gas imports reached peaks in 2007 and 2010, after which they dipped. In recent years, Europe’s imports have barely surpassed their prior peaks. Asia-Pacific’s out-of-region imports have shown a far more consistent growth pattern over the long term.
The reason why Asia-Pacific’s imports have been growing is to support its growing manufacturing output. Manufacturing output has increasingly been shifted to the Asia-Pacific Region, partly because this region can perform this manufacturing cheaply, and partly because rich countries have wanted to reduce their carbon footprint. Moving heavy industry abroad reduces a country’s reported CO2 generation, even if the manufactured items are imported as finished products.
Figure 5 shows that Europe’s own natural gas supply has been falling. This is a major reason for its import requirements from outside the region.
Figure 6, below, shows that Asia-Pacific’s total energy consumption per capita has been growing. The new manufacturing jobs transferred to this region have raised standards of living for many workers. Europe, on the other hand, has reduced its local manufacturing. Its people have tended to get poorer, in terms of energy consumption per capita. Service jobs necessitated by reduced energy consumption per capita have tended to pay less well than the manufacturing jobs they have replaced.
Europe has recently been having conflicts with Russia over natural gas. The world seems to be reaching a situation where there are not enough natural gas exports to go around. The Asia-Pacific Region (or at least the more productive parts of the Asia-Pacific Region) seems to be able to outbid Europe, when local natural gas supply is inadequate.
Figure 7, below, gives a rough idea of the quantity of exports available from Russia+ compared to Europe’s import needs. (In this chart, I compare Europe’s total natural gas imports (including pipeline imports from North Africa and LNG from North Africa) with the natural gas exports of Russia+ (to all nations, not just to Europe, including both by pipeline and as LNG).) On this rough basis, we find that Europe’s natural gas imports are greater than the total natural gas exports of Russia+.
Europe is already encountering multiple natural gas problems. Its supply from North Africa is not as reliable as in the past. The countries of Russia+ are not delivering as much natural gas as Europe would like, and spot prices, especially, seem to be way too high. There are also pipeline disagreements. Bloomberg reports that Russia will be increasing its exports to China in future years. Unless Russia finds a way to ramp up its gas supplies, greater exports to China are likely to leave less natural gas for Russia to export to Europe in the years ahead.
If we look around the world to see what other sources of natural gas exports are available for Europe, we discover that the choices are limited.
The United States is presented as a possible choice for increasing natural gas imports to Europe. One of the catches with growing natural gas exports from the United States is the fact that historically, the US has been a natural gas importer; it is not clear how much exports can rise above the 2022 level. Furthermore, part of US natural gas is co-produced with oil from shale. Oil from shale is not likely to be growing much in future years; in fact, it very likely will be declining because of depleted wells. This may limit the US’s growth in natural gas supplies available for export.
The Rest of the World category on Figure 8 doesn’t seem to have many possibilities for growth in imports to Europe, either, because total exports have been drifting downward. (The Rest of the World includes Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas excluding the United States.) There are many reports of countries, including Iraq and Turkey, not being able to buy the natural gas they would like. There doesn’t seem to be enough natural gas on the market now. There are few reports of supplies ramping up to replace depleted supplies.
With respect to coal, the situation in Europe is only a little different. Figure 9 shows that Europe’s coal supply has been depleting, and imports have not been able to offset this depletion.
If a person looks around the world for places to get more imports for Europe, there aren’t many choices.
Figure 10 shows that most coal production is in the Asia-Pacific Region. With China, India and Japan located in the Asia-Pacific Region, and high transit costs, this coal is unlikely to leave the region. The United States has been a big coal producer, but its production has declined in recent years. It still exports a relatively small amount of coal. The most likely possibility for increased coal imports would be from Russia and its affiliates. Here, too, Europe is likely to need to outbid China to purchase this coal. A better relationship with Russia would be helpful, as well.
Figure 10 shows that world coal production has been essentially flat since 2011. A country will only export coal that it doesn’t need itself. Thus, a shortfall in export capability is an early warning sign of inadequate overall supply. With the economies of many Asia-Pacific countries still growing rapidly, demand for coal imports is likely to grow for this region. While modelers may think that there is close to 150 years’ worth of coal supply available, real-world experience suggests that coal limits are being reached already.
[7] Conclusion. Modelers and leaders everywhere have had a basic misunderstanding of how the economy operates and what limits we are up against. This misunderstanding has allowed scientists to put together models that are far from the situation we are actually facing.
The economy operates as an integrated whole, just as the body of a human being operates as an integrated whole, rather than a collection of cells of different types. This is something most modelers don’t understand, and their techniques are not equipped to deal with.
The economy is facing many limits simultaneously: too many people, too much pollution, too few fish in the ocean, more difficult to extract fossil fuels and many others. The way these limits play out seems to be the way the models in the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth, suggest: They play out on a combined basis. The real problem is that diminishing returns leads to huge investment needs in many areas simultaneously. One or two of these investment needs could perhaps be handled, but not all of them, all at once.
The approach of modelers, practically everywhere, is to break down a problem into small parts, and assume that each part of the problem can be solved independently. Thus, those concerned about “Peak Oil” have been concerned about running out of oil. Finding substitutes seemed to be important. Those concerned about climate change were convinced that huge amounts of fossil fuels remain to be extracted, even more than the amounts indicated by reserve to production ratios. Their concern was finding substitutes for the huge amount of fossil fuels that they believed remained to be extracted, which could cause climate change.
Politicians could see that there was some sort of huge problem on the horizon, but they didn’t understand what it was. The idea of substituting renewables for fossil fuels seemed to be a solution that would make both Peak Oilers and those concerned about climate change happy. Models based on the substitution of renewables for fossil fuels seemed to please almost everyone. The renewables approach suggested that we have a very long timeframe to deal with, putting the problem off, as long into the future as possible.
Today, we are starting to see that renewables are not able to live up to the promise modelers hoped they would have. Exactly how the situation will play out is not entirely clear, but it looks like we will all have front row seats in finding out.
In a stark reminder of Russia’s nuclear power, Putin warned that “no one should have any doubts that a direct attack on our country will lead to the destruction and horrible consequences for any potential aggressor.”
Though the U.S. on Tuesday announced the repositioning of forces around the Baltics, Biden has said he will not send in troops to fight Russia.
😔 Sorry, Fast Eddy doom is a day away…
But maybe 🤔 this may trigger the R word Recession…which Gail thinks may never end…
Is there any good news out there?
Yes, I found a 5 gallon Jerry Gas Can last night being discarded that I will fill up and store for a reserve when the rationing occurs.
Hold on….
Gasoline degrades over time. I believe diesel fuel keeps better. Some things are hard to store for very long.
We have bio in the diesel, it is a bi….ch.
Dennis L.
True, Gail! I’ll go to the Marina to fill up with ethanol free gas and put a stabilize in the can!
Also there is an actual website puregas.com that lists stations without ethanol
I have a small Jerry can for this to fill my lawnmower…lots of folks find out til it’s too late not to use ethanol in their machines…ruins their carbs.
Will stop at Harbor Freight to purchase another 5 gal Jerry can and store it safely in my concrete bomb proof shelter!🤪
“Tunisia shortages bite as fiscal crisis looms.
“Tunisians are suffering delays to salary payments and shortages of grains, medicines and sugar, a foretaste, some economists say, of a rapidly looming public finances crisis that looks increasingly hard to avert.”
https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/tunisia-shortages-bite-fiscal-crisis-looms
“Social media users in Kenya are protesting the surge in food prices and other basic commodities in the country…
“Some social media users showed evidence of shopping lists which stated with prices of basic commodities like bread and cooking oil which has shot up in the last three years – with some goods twice or three times more expensive.”
https://www.africanews.com/2022/02/22/kenyans-protest-surge-in-food-prices//
Sounds like a worldwide problem with “not enough to go around.”
“Mexico’s economy struggles to bounce back after pandemic recession.
“As countries around the world seek to bounce back from the economic devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic, we are seeing mixed results. Mexico, the world’s 15th largest economy is having a particularly hard time…”
https://newsus.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-24/Mexico-s-economy-struggles-to-bounce-back-after-pandemic-recession-17TGg0A8dwc/index.html
“Scrounging for food in ‘hunger hotspot’ Colombia.
“Last month, a report by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme stated that “7.3 million Colombians are food insecure and in need of food assistance in 2022.” The list of 20 “hunger hotspots” also included Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Haiti, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220224-scrounging-for-food-in-hunger-hotspot-colombia
“Cuba’s sugar industry headed toward worst season ever as production falters.
“Last year’s crop of 800,000 tonnes was the worst since 1908… The government has not been able to finance the sector’s needs – including inputs, irrigation and spare parts – due to tough new U.S. sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cubas-sugar-industry-headed-toward-worst-season-ever-production-falters-2022-02-23/
Some countries have to get left out. Irrigation, spare parts, and (in the future) fertilizer are going to become problems.
Gail
Shasta Lake is quite low for the middle of winter. It is an important resource at the headwaters of Sacramento River. Lake Oroville is probably worse
http://www.shastalake.com/shastalake/
As you can see water level going down during season when it is depended on to be filling.
California will be in worse shape than before, particularly Northern California, where quite a lot of our produce comes from. It doesn’t sound good. There will also be a problem for electricity generation. California tries to depend on hydroelectric generation for part of its electricity, but it often is not really available.
The story of Calif. water is told quite thoroughly in the book THE DREMT LAND by Mark Arax.
He covers the Central Valley from Bakersfield to Shasta from the time of Spanish control through Father Serra and the missions and Sutter’s Fort and the gold rush and right up to the hundreds of thousands of acres of nut trees today.
All about Irrigation.
We’ve had comments about fertilizer shortages but irrigation shortages is vastly more critical.
And the pumps need energy to get the water to the crops.
The programs that Calif. has taken to get the water moved around the state from north to south and east side to west side are astounding. Shasta Dam was one of those projects.
The entire Calif. water project is the largest engineering/construction project on Earth.
The video depicts lots of food being available, but at higher prices. The president is claiming that according to the way it calculates GDP, Mexico’s economy is growing.
“A total of 18 building businesses, including one of Australia’s major construction companies Probuild, have collapsed after their South African parent company pulled all its financial support.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/australian-building-giant-probuild-collapses-after-racking-up-losses/news-story/29cc4dccaca23d8bebdf51997b75d8e8
“Australian house prices predicted to decrease dramatically. There’s bad news for homeowners with warnings the overheated property market is going to slump much sooner than predicted.”
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/westpac-predicts-prices-to-plunge-in-overheated-property-market/news-story/8c6f830c9c5f07664e0e402b2f282818
A major bank has predicted that the rapid increase in Australian home prices will decrease to 2% growth in 2022, and turn negative in 2023. Rising interest rates are behind the fear.
Financial problems spread around the world. The article says,
“It blamed Covid-19 restrictions and lockdowns for some costly project delays.”
Whatever the reason, it couldn’t complete projects as planned.
“China property developer sales ‘falling off a cliff’…
“Nikkei Asia reviewed 43 listed developers with over 100 billion yuan in contracted sales in 2020. All of the 31 companies that publish monthly data reported double-digit sales drops in January.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-debt-crunch/China-property-developer-sales-falling-off-a-cliff
“Shimao shares, bonds tumble on fresh signs of liquidity stress.
“Shares and bonds of Shimao Group tumbled on Thursday, after a trustee said roughly $170 million worth of asset-backed notes guaranteed by the Chinese developer may not be redeemed on maturity.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/shimao-shares-bonds-tumble-fresh-signs-liquidity-stress-2022-02-24/
It is not clear that the government can fix the problem either:
“”Doubts remain over whether policymakers can move quickly and effectively enough to revive key growth drivers, especially in the property sector,” Martin Dropkin, head of Asian fixed income at Fidelity International, said this week.”
Cash flow is a big problem for the developers with low sales. They cannot repay bonds coming due.
“UK debt interest bill leaps to highest January level since records began.
“A record debt interest bill for January has eaten into Rishi Sunak’s first ever budget surplus as markets predict that servicing costs will soar even further this spring… Following the figures, the Chancellor warned “there are further pressures on the public finances…””
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/22/uk-debt-interest-bill-leaps-highest-january-level-since-records/
“UK manufacturing price pressures highest since 1976 – CBI.
“More British manufacturers plan to raise prices in the next three months than at any point since 1976, according to a survey on Tuesday that highlighted the inflationary forces that are buffeting the economy.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-manufacturing-price-pressures-highest-since-1976-cbi-2022-02-22/
“Passengers using Heathrow airport fall to lowest level since 1972.
“The number of passengers travelling through Heathrow airport fell to 19.4 million in 2021, its lowest level for nearly 50 years, the airport has said as it reported a pre-tax loss of £1.8bn. Heathrow said it would need to charge airlines more…”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/23/covid-passengers-using-heathrow-airport-falls-to-lowest-level-since-1972
Wages will go less far in the UK.
“‘Literally ravenous’: 25% of Irish families fearful over food poverty.
“For Nuala O’Connor, a chef at a Barnardos centre in Dublin, food poverty… the current situation, with more families struggling to make ends meet, is a throwback to harder times decades ago.”
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40813821.html
“As costs rise, majority of Canadians are changing their food-buying habits, survey finds.
“According to the Angus Reid Institute, 46 per cent of Canadian consumers are switching to cheaper brands at the grocery store, one-third are cutting back on meat, and one in five are buying less fresh fruit and fewer vegetables.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/8637869/canadians-changing-food-buying-habit-survey/
Geeta Happy!
Increases in grocery store prices cause difficulties for families.
“Food inflation risks balloon with Ukraine attack as prices of wheat to palm oil soar.
“A spectacular rally in crop prices from wheat to palm oil has increased concerns that food costs are going to get a lot higher. Those fears only got worse on Thursday after Russian forces attacked targets across Ukraine. Both countries are key suppliers of grains and edible oils.”
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/wheat-soybeans-soar-to-9-year-peaks-on-russia-ukraine-crisis
“Fertilizer Shortages Due to Russia-Ukraine Tension May Hit U.S. Growing Season.
“More price hikes for fertilizer are on the horizon as the Russia-Ukraine crisis adds to fears of global shortages, stoking concerns about rising food costs. Russia is a low-cost, high-volume global producer for all major fertilizers…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/russia-ukraine-tensions-spur-fears-of-fertilizer-shortages-food-price-hikes
Russia and Belarus are major producers of potash fertilizer. If some production is lost, it will cause a reduction in crops.
This is a story from Malaysia. The country imports wheat from Ukraine and soy beans from from South America. Both sets of exports are under pressure.
“World Economy Inflation Shock Set to Worsen From Oil at $100.
“Oil’s surge to $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 represents a double-blow to the world economy by further denting growth prospects and driving up inflation. That’s a worrying combination for the U.S. Federal Reserve and fellow central banks…”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-100-set-compound-world-042454320.html
“Energy Crisis Worsens As Russia Delays Coal Supply.
“Coal prices are rising again as the Russia-Ukraine crisis has put energy markets on alert and Russian coal producers struggle to get their coal via railways to export terminals due to COVID-related railway staff shortages.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Energy-Crisis-Worsens-As-Russia-Delays-Coal-Supply.html
Most people don’t understand how important Russia is to coal exports. (Most coal is used in the country where it is mined.)
“Russia accounts for some 20 percent of global trade in coal, and COVID-related supply disruptions in the logistics of getting coal to foreign markets further tighten the global coal market, which had just gone through a month-long export ban by Indonesia.”
“Russia’s incursion into Ukraine heightens the chance of policy mistakes by global central banks.
“The geopolitical uncertainty comes at a difficult time for the world’s central banks. A number have already begun the process of tightening monetary policy in an attempt to combat record-high inflation, but spikes in oil and natural gas prices will likely exacerbate the issue even further.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/23/russia-ukraine-conflict-what-it-could-mean-for-central-banks-rates.html
“Global Banks Poised for Turmoil as West Hits Russia With Sanctions.
““The issue here is not just the immediate impact on the financial markets, but the fact that it’s almost impossible in the near term to disentangle” Russia from global trade, Elina Ribakova, the institute’s deputy chief economist, said in an interview. “There is room for contagion.””
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/business/banks-russia-sanctions.html
Contagion is the big issue. Russia is incredibly important to the world economy, even though it gets little respect elsewhere.
Hey Harry (McGibbs).. got good news? All seems negative… need some hopium….
CTG, I’m afraid there wasn’t much in the way of positive news this morning. I send you my fondest wishes and a virtual dram instead.
Sir Harry ‘Moriarty’ McGibbs.
The news is hardly ever positive, not at all his fault.
Let’s all try to think of something ‘beautiful and righteous’!
For me, today, it was watching immense, towering, rain clouds, against a surprisingly deep blue sky, sweep over the ancient cathedral of Ely in the distance; and – in the foreground – the first blossoming blackthorn tree of Spring…..
“The world is sliding into a new Dark Age of poverty, irrationality and war.
“Imperialism, war, irrationality, disease and economic dislocation: modernity is ending as it began. Vladimir Putin’s monstrous expansionism is the latest, terrifying reminder that human progress is far from inevitable, and that our wealth and technological advances rest on a set of extraordinarily fragile foundations…
“I’m sorry to disappoint you, dear reader, but there are no easy answers to prevent the world from sliding into a new dark age, and perhaps even in some cases none at all.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/02/23/world-sliding-new-dark-age-poverty-irrationality-war/
Putin’s monstrous expansion … priceless!!!
Wasn’t Kiev once the capital city of Russia?
We are sliding into extinction…
A self-organizing world economy has to change, to reflect its falling energy output relative to world population. Someone has to get left out. Putin has advantages in this new world of shortages. He is taking advantage of them.
Why is there no further Bombing????? What kinda shit is this… I demand bombs … I demand entertainment… Borrrr….iiiing.
I am running out of patience
https://www.aljazeera.com/
I wonder if the Europeans want food and electricity (gas), in particular central Europeans?
No?
Of course not.
Lets bomb!!!11!!
YOLO!!!! MOAR!!!!!!1111!!
Caligula made a horse consul. new zealand made a donkey prime minister.
https://www.laguiadelvaron.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Putin-Clapping.gif
Omicron a wolf in sheep’s clothing
Dedicated to all the courageous Canadian and American truckers and to the doctors who support them in their vitally important fight against vaccine mandates and immunologic discrimination.
https://voiceforscienceandsolidarity.substack.com/p/omicron-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing
According to Geert Vander Bossche:
Also:
One question here to all – Pfizer is suppose to dump a lot of data in March 2022. Is this going to happen?
If it is, then I am afraid what Gerald Celente say will be correct : They will take you to a war.
The German insurer’s data is damaging and seriously removing the wheels off BAU
Things are changing rapidly in Ukraine. The Russians have reportedly taken control of the country’s main airports and ports. Numerous explosions have taken place in the largest cities, including Kiev, Kharkiv, Mariupol,…
Biden is in his bunker, with family and other officials.
More details here (in french) https://t.me/s/coronalive
This is serious.
Thanks for your early report of the situation.
This post completely misunderstands the capacity of both humans and society to evolve and technology to improve. For example energy and material intensity of economies is falling and the rate of decline will increase as electrification replaces direct use of fossil fuels.
A few examples:
1. An electric urban delivery truck or private vehicle uses about 1/5th of the energy per km as a diesel vehicle
2. Germany whose industry share of the economy is not much lower than China’s uses half the energy per $ of GDP and Italy about 20% less again.
3. The US used to use about 1 tonne of steel per $m of GDP now it uses 250 kg of which almost half is recycled, so its consumption of iron ore and coking coal has fallen from 970kg per person in the late 70’s to 310 kg now and will continue to fall.
As for technology improvements 15 years ago solar cells used 12g of silicon per watt, now it is about 3 g. Perovskovite and tandem cells will use even less. Similarly, the original Altamont Pass wind turbines produced an average of 220 MWh per year, a modern 6 MW onshore wind turbine in the same location would produce 23,000 MWh, more than 100 times as much energy and not only that they generate for 4 times as many hours so the gap to be filled by storage is much smaller.
Even if the US did not improve energy efficiency other than by electrification, a 95% electrified economy would need about 3m acres of solar farms, 18% of its roofspace covered with solar and 250,000 modern wind turbines to produce all the energy it needs. As each wind turbine uses less than 12th of an acre, that means the wind farms would consume about 20,000 acres. To put it another way 8 times as many wind turbines in Germany in 35 times the open space. By comparison the US currently uses 640m acres for cows, 70m acres for sheep and goats, 34m acres for corn ethanol, harvests 11m acres of forest every year. dedicates 3m acres for airports and 2m acres for golf.
As for resources, all the steel in the wind turbines adds up to about 2,000 tons each so over fifteen years it will use about as much steel per year as the transport equipment industry does today, Over its life, each wind turbine will eliminate the need for mining 200,000 tonnes of coal or 5,000 million cubic feet of gas
are you an entertainer or are you a cultist?
I am asking for a friend
Unfortunately, all of these things are not doing enough to solve the problem of resources that are becoming increasingly difficult to access at the same time that population is rising. The world is now being squeezed by too low resources per capita, with respect to pretty much everything. We are experiencing a huge number of broken supply chains, already. This situation can be expected to get worse and worse, making it impossible to make the many modern devices you discuss.
Aw Gawd… really? Add a sarc tag will ya
The same group of people who believed that Russia started all this in Ukraine is the same group of people who will line up to take the 10th booster shot.
Coincidence?
p.s. perhaps lack of critical thinking?
Yes – whatever it going on in Ukraine … Putin didn’t start it… he’s being proactive.
Why doesn’t he shut the gas tap?
He could “toggle” deliveries for a few days citing problems purchasing spare parts due to payment/banking issues.
I’ve made the same observation. It is the same schmuck characters asking me to accept the vax by some ridiculous subversion tactic.
They’re embroiled in a fantasy set in motion by dimwit and an ego out of touch with reality.
It is the refusal to accept there exist an objective reality outside of their hallucinations of what is.
Let’s summarize the defining characteristic of who “they” are:
MOAR!1!!1!!! YOLO!!1!!!
I think it is about time for them to kick the bucket.
🤢🤮
norm – you could be vax injured but in denial — based on many of your comments here you have some of these symptoms
She injected the Devil into her body
https://rumble.com/vvobfk-rozanne-de-wild-speaking-at-profest-2022.html
Didn’t Russia push the vaccine? 🤔
Russia certainly has administered quite a few doses of its own Sputnik COVID vaccine to its people. One chart shows 49.7% of Russia’s population “fully vaccinated.” A few have had booster shots.
Has the Russian security operation in Ukraine already paid for itself in higher gas and oil prices?
Cost benefit ratio must be better than break even.
yes.
and how are those “sanctions” on Russia working out?
I just like to record a note of thanks to the great leader President Putin. My gold ETFs have gone up. Thanks. How about a tactical nuke or two and let’s see if we can get the Troy Oz. to $2,500. I love Putin!!!
Good point!
Of course, China is the world’s biggest importer of oil, natural gas, and coal. So China is hurt by the actions in Ukraine. The Middle East is helped, as is the US fossil fuel industry.
Who wants to watch?
I do I do
https://www.aljazeera.com/
boof!
I was about to crash – and now I have to put the wide screen on?!
Putin is d/mn inconsiderate – he should have waited until the afternoon – a civilised time – who even gets up at 6 AM, let alone starts a war at that time – how are civilised folk supposed to watch it on the wide screen?!
should the war be paused at 4pm for tea?
Russia has neutralised the Ukrainian fleet in Azov Sea and invaded all along the coast; also invaded across the Belarussian border in the north; and in the east from Russia itself. It looks like a total invasion of Ukraine. Some Ukrainian military airports and bases have already been taken out; explosions in the major cities. More tomorrow… time for bed!
Hopefully it’s all out nuclear war by your morning
the critical part of the operation – destroying with precision stand-off weapons all of 404 navy, all advanced weapons platforms, amunition depots and dumps, millitary airfileds, radar stations and ready for action aircrafts while ground and special forces were capturing civilian airports and grounding oligarch and goverment planes, lasted 40 minutes. and all this thing happening under total russian A2/AD and EWM blanket (the ‘special morning war show’ on the local TVs is constatly glitching and we are 3 whole countries away from 404). there is noone in the collective west capable to comprehend what just happened this early morning in 404 in the space of 40 minutes. the media is ‘live reporting’ kinetic war while the kinetic war itself ended while the jurnos were hapily sleeping in their beds.
the biggest TV media here (owned by USA media conglomerate) just aired interview with 404 embassy staffer who said initial data is of 7 injured and 9 dead btw. surreal.
That’s when you attack englishmen.
Fast Eddy asked him to kick it off during NZ prime time… cuz he Likes to Watch
Hoping to waking up to the Apocalypse
Take Benzedrine + Meth…
https://imageresizer.static9.net.au/2rBsE3bxDIKmu6XxTU8Jho6plBE=/1280×0/vms-tv-images-prod.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com%2F2017%2F07%2F82140%2FApocalypseSoon.jpg
Thanks for your summary above regarding what happened within 40 minutes. Europe/Ukraine has already lost the war, as I understand the situation.
Senator Marco Rubio:
“To clarify what is underway is a full scale & comprehensive military assault throughout #Ukraine
Airborne & amphibious landings, missile strikes from air, ground & naval forces, electronic & cyber attacks & a large ground force to occupy a large swath of territory.”
Russia says:
“… they are not doing any missile, artillery or rocket strikes on #Ukrainian cities, citizens of #Ukraine are not threatened, what is happening is precision strikes destroy UKR military infrastructure, anti-air systems, air force and air fields.”
Look at these clowns hahaha what a joke…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/ukraine-crisis-russia-declares-war-on-ukraine-reports-of-explosions-in-kyiv-putin-sends-warning-about-interference/NMAHHIPL6GMCRQT74YCSHSNP34/
“It was 5 o’clock in the morning Kyiv time Putin started an unprovoked war against Ukraine, a war against Europe, a war against the whole world”
wooooooo!!!!!!!
WW3!!!!!!!
life is good!!!
WW3 tonight, baby!!!!
LOL
But will the value of my house go up, that’s what matters.
Exactly, did I renovate the kitchen for nothing? How about my career ambitions as a tryhard attaboy? No?
the price of gold went up $70 overnight
all is not lost
It’s only the start…to the Moon 🌙
YES!!!!!
YESSSSSSS!!!!!!
Blow this F789er UP!!! 🙂
Ukraine crisis: Russia declares war on Ukraine; reports of explosions in Kyiv; Putin sends warning about interference
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/ukraine-crisis-russia-declares-war-on-ukraine-reports-of-explosions-in-kyiv-putin-sends-warning-about-interference/NMAHHIPL6GMCRQT74YCSHSNP34/
Brent $100
WTI $95
Bitcoin plunges 7%
weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!
stock markets down 3%.
oil up 4%.
ah the good life.
this is the best of all possible worlds.
primates gonna monkey around, maximum power principle.
WTI 97
Brent 102
up up and away!
the perpetual unfolding beauty of the universe is particularly beautiful tonight…
baby.
lots of cryptos are now down 9%.
many now down 11 to 12 %.
Launch the NUKES!
Someone has painted ‘Life is Beauiful’ on a fence I cycle past every day.
I believe they misjudged the space they had, hence the missing letter.
No less true for that.
🥱 let’s see Covid has run it’s course… people might start asking questions wondering why they have been poisoned and why the shelves are empty. I know in the next scene que the war! That we keep the people distracted!
yes rapacious Demoncrats gonna go full lizard brain.
look over there, is that a war?
the puppeteers behind Brandon have scrambled brains starting with years of psyycho-liberal university mis-education.
depose the legally elected Ukraine President in 2014 with much help from the SeeEyeAy and think that Crimea will be the only consequence?
Let’s Go Brandon, give him an ice cream cone when he wakes up tomorrow morning.
“When all else fails, they take you to war” – Gerald Celente
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/23/putin-says-russia-open-to-diplomacy-as-moscow-hit-with-fresh-sanctions.html
“The United Nations Security Council convened an emergency meeting Wednesday night as Russian President Vladimir Putin, in an early morning address local time, said he would launch a military operation in eastern Ukraine.”
WW3!! we’re all going to die!!!
or, is Putin just intent on pushing Ukraine military away from Donetsk and Luhansk?
he has regained DPR and LPR for Russia, and now he is likely trying to keep the new borders secure.
he once said Russia has enough land.
but like Crimea in 2014, he determined that these two areas needed to be retained by Russia.
the US wanted, maybe still wants, a war in Ukraine.
I think Europe said NO.
we’ll see.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin, in an early Thursday morning address in Moscow, announced that Russia would launch a military action in Ukraine. NBC News reported that explosions were heard in Kyiv, the Ukraine capital.”
ooh, explosions.
this is exciting!
I’ve never been in a world war before.
let’s see what the next breaking news is.
This sounds vaguely familiar. That’s right. It was the US invading Iraq. Fully televised for the enjoyment of the comfy Americans back home.
I suspect the Russians are very aware of the saying….”You Break It You Own It”
The US ended up owning a morass in Iraq for many years. That turned out well didn’t it.
I’m still thinking that Putin has Donetsk and Luhansk and that’s all he wants.
but push farther, and then back off and leave Ukraine weakened.
then it looks better that he ONLY took back DPR and LPR.
lucky for Europe that it’s almost Spring.
hey, where’d the gas go?
And this might be the first all out nuclear war in history – exciting!
“KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday announced a military operation in Ukraine, claiming it’s intended to protect civilians.
In a televised address, Putin said the action comes in response to threats coming from Ukraine. He added that Russia doesn’t have a goal to occupy Ukraine. Putin said the responsibility for bloodshed lies with the Ukrainian “regime.”
Putin warned other countries that any attempt to interfere with the Russian action would lead to “consequences they have never seen.”
He accused the U.S. and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demand to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and offer Moscow security guarantees.
He said the Russian military operation aims to ensure a “demilitarization” of Ukraine. Putin said that all Ukrainian servicemen who lay down arms will be able to safely leave the zone of combat.”
“Putin announced the Russian military action to ‘demilitarize’ Ukraine.” And further he provocatively asserted:
“We decided to launch a special military action […] aimed at demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.”
“The circumstances make us take decisive and immediate actions. The people’s republics of Donbas asked Russia for assistance,” Putin said. “In this regard, in accordance with Article 51, Part 7 of the UN Charter, with the sanction of the Federation Council and in pursuance of the friendship and mutual assistance treaties with the DPR and LPR, ratified by the Federal Assembly, I have decided to conduct a special military operation.” He told Ukrainians to “lay down their arms.”
Crucially, he said that Russia has “no intentions of occupying Ukraine.”
The AP is further confirming “President Vladimir Putin says Russia will conduct a military operation in eastern Ukraine.” Putin warned in his televised speech, “A couple of words for those who would be tempted to intervene. Russia will respond immediately and you will have consequences that you never have had before in your history.”
YES! Parents hit the jackpot!!!
Milo Edberg, 6, has been intubated and hospitalized since receiving his COVID vaccine on Dec. 10, Alpha News reported.
Edberg’s mother, Carrie, said her son was at M Health Fairview’s Masonic Children’s Hospital in Minneapolis, Minnesota for a minor procedure when a doctor recommended he receive the COVID vaccine.
Carrie said she followed the advice of her doctor, who told her the vaccine was “safe and harmless.”
“I went against my gut and said OK, do it,” she said.
Carrie said the evening after receiving the shot, her son was gasping for air. She dialed 911. Edberg was transported back to the hospital, was intubated and diagnosed with myocarditis.
He was “perfectly fine and then he wasn’t,” Carrie said. He was “eating on his own [but] now he can’t even swallow his saliva.”
Doctors have no answers and cannot explain her son’s affliction, Carrie said. They haven’t even been able to provide a timeline for when her son might return home or whether he will regain any quality of life — and they “won’t bring up the vaccine” when discussing Edberg’s situation.
Carrie filed a VAERS report in January and said her son received a 10-15 minute visit from an infectious disease specialist who said they would file a report with the CDC and and Pfizer early in his hospital stay. She has heard nothing since.
The CDC maintains most cases of myocarditis after COVID vaccines are “mild” and patients recover quickly.
Not all doctors agree. As Dr. Steven Pelech of the University of British Columbia explained last August:
“Contrary to what a number of people have said, there is no such thing as ‘mild myocarditis.’ It’s the destruction of the myocytes, the heart cells that contract. When those cells die, they are not replaced in your body and are instead replaced by scar-tissue, which is from fibroblasts — skin cells which don’t have contractile activity …Every time you get an inflammatory response, you lose more of that contractility and have a greater chance of heart attack and other problems later in life.”
A New Zealand writer observed that “mild” clinical manifestations in the present are meaningless for interpreting longer-term risks.
Using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans with gadolinium contrast — capable of showing “damaged heart areas undetectable by any other means” — studies of children and adolescents who developed myocarditis following COVID vaccination revealed, in the vast majority, a “potentially poor prognosis despite the heart seeming to have returned to normal.”
https://alphanews.org/doctors-said-a-6-year-old-needs-the-covid-vaccine-now-he-has-myocarditis-and-cant-walk/
Despite so much propaganda, her gut instinct still warned her – over-ridden by the deceit of the ‘trusted medical professionals.’
Through hard experience, I now always listen to intuition: much more reliable than dreams, and 100% superior to official sources….
“Britain to import 70% of gas as North Sea reserves run dry” – Reliance on foreign fuel will raise fresh questions over country’s strategic independence, writes Oliver Gill in the Telegraph.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/10/britain-import-70pc-gas-north-sea-reserves-run-dry/
hahahahaah
No need to worry Brits: after the Defence Minister has finished directing the army in biffing Putin, as he has been boasting, he can transfer to dealing with the UK’s existential energy crisis.
Brains like that shouldn’t be allowed to go to waste…….
Good luck to Britain!
Gasoline is up 6 cents in my area….still low compared to the rest of the world $3.40 a gallon…. I know that Gail says that it is long term contracts and refineries losing money….but how long can that go on before Gasoline prices have to jump? Gas is not following the increase in the price of oil…..and that makes me suspicious if we really have an open system….High gasoline will burn through the U.S economy like a wild fire….Fuel economy has been going down along with miles driven going up…. tic..tic tic boom!!!
Germany states “Nordstream II closure not permanent”.
My German is pretty poor but I think that translates
I didnt mean it babe. I was just mad. Could you come over? ITS FREAKIN COLD!
Good point!
Hahahaha… check out the video of the protesters screaming at Donkey Face… scroll down
https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/wellington/300525066/live-police-form-line-against-parliament-protesters
In their latest issue brief, America’s Frontline Doctors (AFLDS) warned how spike proteins resulting from experimental COVID-19 gene therapy vaccines have the capacity to 1.) pass through the “blood-brain barrier” causing neurological damage, 2.) be “shed” by the vaccinated, bringing about sickness in unvaccinated children and adults, and 3.) cause irregular vaginal bleeding in women.
In an email correspondence with LifeSiteNews, Dr. Simone Gold, the founder of AFLDS, directed this writer to an April 29 tweet where she posted a document from Pfizer’s experimental trials in which the pharmaceutical giant “acknowledges this mechanism” of potential shedding, she wrote.
As the document states, one can be “exposed to [the] study intervention due to environmental exposure,” including “by inhalation or skin contact” with someone involved in the study, or with another who has been exposed in the same way.
https://www.nationaltimesaustralia.com/health/pfizer-confirms-covid-vaccinated-people-can-shed-spike-proteins-and-harm-the-unvaccinated/
Disgusting Diseased MOREONS DDMs
With the spike protein apparently being drawn to the ovaries this has unfortunate ramifications for those wishing to avoid exposure. I want a red card that guarantees non injected status.
Survival Tip – do not eat the flesh of a dead injected MOREON
Yep, get that HEPA equipped air purifier and wear the FFP-3 respirator when dealing with the dimwit disease stricken.
Require a vax passport (status: unvaxxed) before busting your nuts.
At least charge obscenely for your “product” and “service”.
🤣👍👍
A fundamental premise of healthy sex is that you do no harm to your partner physically emotionally or psychologically. That the spike proteins are being found for long periods of time in parts of the body where they have no business being along with the autopsies demonstrating causal relationships to mortality is extremely disturbing. The fact that I posted that there are high levels of spike proteins in the ovaries by chance or design has ramifications for lesbians as well as heterosexuals. Since we have only the most fundamental of correlations, the toxicity of the spike protein is unknown, and no research is being undertaken the level of risk is a crap shoot. Cool your jets kiddo your way off base with this one , again…
“Cool your jets kiddo your way off base with this one , again…”
Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure. Only the paranoid survive.
— Andy Grove
https://www.inc.com/jeremy-goldman/13-insightful-quotes-from-intel-visionary-andy-grove.html
Not only that: many didn’t catch the tweets from Moderna’s vaxx designer last year, in which he admitted the reality of shedding, but claimed – not very plausibly – that it would never lead to ‘significant illness or malaise’.
There is really no reason for doubting that illness caused by shedding is real.
Lots of good points, including:
We need to keep at least 2M away from the MOREONS. They are diseased. And dangerous.
And really really stooopid… they believes there is no harm injecting an experiment into their bodies so they can go to pie shops…. how stooopid? Negative IQ level stoooopid. All of them
And when you tell them that (like the guy at the insurance company) they get offended.
Come the f789 on now — why would they get offended? They are too stooopid to know not to get offended when someone states the obvious… and then there are the hyper re-tards… you know… the ones who inject their kids…
Hi Gail,
Reading about this Algae Biotech’s plan (https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/houston-biotech-startup-will-use-microbes-to-make-hydrogen-from-oil-1.1724834) to use algae pumped into old reservoirs to generate ~3kg Hydrogen per Barrel of Oil.
Assuming I went to the right online sources that seems to be about 426 MJ of Hydrogen Gas from 6120 MJ worth of Oil (in situ). About 7% of the energy input is output. It’ll be interesting to see if there’s still economic ways to do this, perhaps if even to avoid having to shut-down the well and pay costs to have site remediated?
I think this helps me have an idea of how far down the curve a mostly “green” energy system will put us …
It doesn’t sound very promising, you are right.
European Resource Adequacy Assessment
2021 Edition
https://www.entsoe.eu/outlooks/eraa/
This is about the about the potential adequacy of European electricity resources. I note that it says:
“As a bottom-up scenario it does not include any economic viability assessment.”
What is this assessment possibly trying to do? Assume that funds and resources will be available for everything Europe wants to try?
An excellent article on the EU and energy and food.
“The EU’s ‘Fit for 55,’ ‘Farm to Fork’ and the Freezing of Nord Stream 2: A Mass Sacrifice to the Gods?” at saker.is
I agree that this is a very find article. It points out the absurdity of the claim that a transition to a green future (excluding nuclear) is just around the corner. A direct link seems to be this one:
https://thesaker.is/the-eus-fit-for-55-farm-to-fork-and-the-freezing-of-nord-stream-2-a-mass-sacrifice-to-the-gods/
This is one small excerpt from the article:
It is possible they have truly gone mad and are in a delusional state, tempted by short-term profits, rather than actively seeking mass deaths: either way, the same result…..
Trump administration push for injection approval with worldwide regulatory agencies regardless of completion of even tentative evaluation of safety and efficiency is clear basis for RICO investigation.
Four years of imaginary Russian collusion in MSM.
Illegal FISA surveillance warrant to try to dig up dirt.
Endless New York state DA attempts to find some charges on Trump.
Cut and dry RICO prosecution evidence lieing on the sidewalk for pick up of interest? Nah WaPo aint interested. Bygones are bygones. Just like WaPO was not interested in the warning documents that came out of the USA embassy in China about the Wuhan BSL4 lab safety prior to the leak smack in the middle of the Trump administration. Nothing to see here.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/gGOaV0ZNjbn0/
Surprised 🙀😯
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said this week that younger males should consider waiting longer between doses of Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines to reduce a rare risk of heart inflammation.
The CDC said males ages 12- to 39-years-old should consider waiting eight weeks between the first and second doses of their primary Covid vaccination series. Public health authorities in Canada found the risk of myocarditis in men ages 18- to 24-years-old was lower when they waited eight weeks for the second dose of Moderna or Pfizer.
Best just not 🚫🚭 to take it
Currently, the geopolitical premium in the price of oil is already around $15 per barrel due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Marinchenko told Russian news agency TASS.
Russia’s share of the global oil market is over 10 percent, and there is no one that can replace it, there is little spare production capacity—especially considering the gradual recovery in demand—even if sanctions on Iran are lifted in the near future, TASS quoted Marinchenko as saying.
Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, exports around 5 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd). Nearly half of it, or 48 percent, went to European countries in 2020, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In 2021, Russia remained the largest supplier of natural gas and petroleum oils to the EU.
A plunge in Russian oil exports to Europe would be a very bullish factor for oil prices, which could hit and exceed $100 in case of a conflict in Ukraine, analysts say.
Also today, Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said that replacing Russian natural gas deliveries to Europe in the short term is “almost impossible.”
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
How true across all cultures, religion and geography.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10537241/Vaccinated-people-feel-antipathy-refuse-Covid-19-jab-survey-shows.html
We wish people well but they don’t wish pure blood well
The title of this is, “Vaccinated people despise those who refuse to get the jab – but the opposite is not true, study reveals.”
For the record, my feelings towards vaxed people range from pity to contempt, depending on whether the vaxed person is my friend/family member/acquaintance or any famous/unknown nobody.
Of course, in the category of friends I include the virtual ones, most of whom live in this OFW planet!
I have to stop myself from spitting on vaxxed then sucker punching them to the ground and kicking them to death…
Imagine if Pure Bloods could carry sharp knives… when someone admits to being happily vaxxed you could just stick them and mutter into their — you f789ing MOREON… as they fall to the ground (dead)…
You should I Have Cleansed the Gene Pool (or Allah Ack-Bar… if you prefer) … then let the dogs feast
A bit like the planet the Little Prince lived on, JMS – sparsely inhabited!
I have to admit .. those who willing jabbed.. disgust me … Sub-MOREONS… Negative IQ Im be ciles
I’d cast the first stone if I could get diplomatic immunity
https://www.eugyppius.com/p/german-public-health-insurer-vaccine/comments?utm_source=url
Haha.. this plastered everywhere in the “anti-vax” websites…..
Implications?
Paul Ehrlich – there is a German guy and another from USA with the same name. This institute is of courses name in the honour of the German but guess what is the the other USA guy is famous for?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ehrlich
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich
Paul Ralph Ehrlich (born May 29, 1932) is an American biologist, best known for his warnings about the consequences of population growth and limited resources.[2][3] He is the Bing Professor Emeritus of Population Studies of the Department of Biology of Stanford University and President of Stanford’s Center for Conservation Biology.
Tell me we are not in a simulation. It looks like the Creator is leaving crumbs or Easter Eggs telling us all this “unpossible” coincidences. Why no Robert Koch Institute’s (RKI) data? Oh I see Paul Erhlich Institute is being used and not RKI (just saying jestly)
The title of this is “German Public Health Insurer: Vaccine Side Effects Maybe 8 to 10 Times More Frequent Than Officially Reported,” based on the information reported to the German Public Health Insurer. Adverse effects seem to be reported by 2.3% of those receiving the vaccines in one company, and by 2.0% in another company.
“Health insurance company sounds the alarm: number of vaccination side effects actually much higher.
By the end of 2021, the Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI) had recorded around 245,000 vaccination side effects. But the actual number of these side effects is likely to be many times higher. At least that is what the results of an analysis by the health insurance company BBK ProVita suggest, as reported by Die Welt. One had become “clairaudient”, when ever more occurring diagnoses suggested a vaccination side effect. Therefore, the databases of all BBK health insurance companies were searched. The data collection paints a completely different picture than the figures from the Ministry of Health.
“Strong warning signal”
Thus, from January to August 2021, around 217,000 of just under 11 million BBK insureds had to be treated for vaccination side effects – while the Paul Ehrlich Institute keeps only 244,576 side effect reports based on 61.4 million vaccinated. “According to our calculations, we consider 400,000 doctor visits by our insureds due to vaccination complications to date to be realistic,” Andreas Schöfbeck, BKK board member, told Die Welt. “Extrapolated to the total population, this figure would be three million.” Thus, the number of vaccination side effects would be more than 1,000 percent higher than the PEI reports.
Schöfbeck cites the reporting system as the main explanation for the massive discrepancy. Physicians often have to report vaccination side effects in their spare time – a time-consuming activity that then goes unpaid. “It’s simply impossible to report everything.”
“Strong warning signal”
With his analysis, Schöfbeck turned to a wide range of institutions – from the German Medical Association to the StiKo and the Paul Ehrlich Institute itself. He said the figures were a “strong alarm signal” that “absolutely must be taken into account in the further use of vaccines.”
His figures could be validated by the same data analyses of other health insurance companies, he says. It is “ethically wrong not to talk about it.”
Since “danger to human life cannot be ruled out,” he set a deadline of 6 p.m. Tuesday to respond to his letter. Since this verstric,h turned to the public.
(Translated from german)
Very interesting thank you. Thank you also to Gail for indicating key elements helping reading good contributes.
Gas from Russia to Europe/Germany is getting all the attention meanwhile, as Paul Harvey would say – …now for the rest of the story:
From EU commission info below:
2/3 of all EU energy 2019 imports are petroleum of which 27% from Russia (+7% Kazakhstan)
27% energy imports are gas of which 41% from Russia
6% are solid fuel imports of which 47% from Russia
0.66*0.34 ~= 22% import energy from Russian + Kazak Oil
0.27*0.41 ~= 11% import energy from Russian Gas
0.06*0.47 ~= 2.5% import energy from Russian Coal
==>~ 35.5% EU Energy Imports from Russia
“In the EU in 2019, the dependency rate was equal to 61 %, which means that more than half of the EU’s energy needs were met by net imports….”
0.61 * .355 ~= 21.7% Total EU energy supplied by Russia (Oil/Gas/Coal) + Kazakh Oil
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2c.html
What do we import?
For its own consumption, the EU also needs energy which is imported from third countries. In 2019, the main imported energy product was petroleum products (including crude oil, which is the main component), accounting for almost two thirds of energy imports into the EU, followed by gas (27 %) and solid fossil fuels (6 %).
Russia is the main EU supplier of crude oil, natural gas and solid fossil fuels
The stability of the EU’s energy supply may be threatened if a high proportion of imports are concentrated among relatively few external partners. In 2019, almost two thirds of the extra-EU’s crude oil imports came from Russia (27 %), Iraq (9 %), Nigeria and Saudi Arabia (both 8 %) and Kazakhstan and Norway (both 7 %). A similar analysis shows that almost three quarters of the EU’s imports of natural gas came from Russia (41 %), Norway (16 %), Algeria (8 %) and Qatar (5 %), while over three quarters of solid fuel (mostly coal) imports originated from Russia (47 %), the United States (18 %) and Australia (14 %).
Somewhere in the internet, one of the comments in one of the forums, might be here since I read so many comments by commenters per day that Europe is “non-existence”. If Russia wants to do business with EU, talk to USA first…
So, where is the UK in all this? Do they have a special agreement with Norway and another with the US for LNG? We heard about the 1.4GW powercable between Norway and the UK, how about the gas?
Could it even be that Brexit was the only way to secure a “private” share of gas that is not forcibly traded on any EU marketplace?
I dont know.
You are the world experts right now so I ask here.
There is a natural gas pipeline from Norway to the UK, so the UK can get natural gas from Norway by pipeline. In fact, there are several different natural gas pipelines to different parts of Europe and different parts of the UK. See this article by the EIA for a map of pipelines (scroll down).
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51258
I don’t know what contractual agreement the UK has with Norway. Normally, there are fairly long-term contracts associated with natural gas by pipeline.
The UK is “at the end of the pipeline” with respect to natural gas imports from Russia, so it tends not to get much from Russia.
Thanks for your analysis!
How about some real evidence based medicine, done in real time, and collated and collected by a private corporation?
David Sinclair, full prof at Harvard has some insights into how we age, a company with which he appears to be affiliated, Inside Tracker, offers sort of batch analysis combined with genomes from popular DNA tracking sites.
Makes a vaccine passport seem sort of blase.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrnQkA8I6DQ
Many here complain(probably with some justification) medicine is a test racket, etc. We are getting to the point where we can look forward; but then hasn’t natural selection been doing that since the beginning? He brings some insight regarding the future of medicine, will an office visit be necessary? Perhaps AI does the dx, real time, predictive time. What happens to Rochester, MN real estate in that case? Is nothing a sure bet anymore?
I am bored with Covid, any takers?
Dennis L.
Gail has often pointed out the failings of Cli**te Mod**s due to assumptions that require carbon inputs to atmosphere beyond that contained in all known FF reserves and failure to recognize impossibility to extract more than a small fraction of the remaining reserves
In addition I have always looked askance at current modeling predictions/analyses because lack recognition of dynamics of the primary driver of all systems on earth (good ol Sol.) Periodic fluctuations in solar insolation has been recognized for centuries but ignored in the debate (probably because cannot distinguish variability due human impacts if recognized uncertainty in solar variability.)
I havent seen the below posted here before – if so then please excuse the duplication – kinda funny ran across this link in comments on TheSaker wrt discussions of green energy & food limitations in europe in context of potential disconnect of energy supplies from RF.
This is relatively new analysis of solar cycles/insolation variability (note only 0.22% change in solar insolation conincided with “Little ice age” started ~1650 ad). One interesting new concept in this “editorial” is recognition of variation in solar magnetic field causing change in earth magnetic field/shield allowing for increase cosmic ray inputs. The increase in cosmic rays is purported to result in upper atmospheric clouds that induce cooling as a subtle new effect certainly also neglected in clima** mode**.
Norm should be interested in correlations with south central england temps.
Title:
Modern Grand Solar Minimum will lead to terrestrial cooling (published 2020)
Link:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7575229/
Intro:
“In this editorial I will demonstrate with newly discovered solar activity proxy-magnetic field that the Sun has entered into the modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020–2053) that will lead to a significant reduction of solar magnetic field and activity like during Maunder minimum leading to noticeable reduction of terrestrial temperature….”
Conclusions:
“In this editorial, I have demonstrated that the recent progress with understanding a role of the solar background magnetic field in defining solar activity and with quantifying the observed magnitudes of magnetic field at different times allowed us to enable reliable long-term prediction of solar activity on a millennium timescale. This approach revealed a presence of not only 11-year solar cycles but also of grand solar cycles with duration of 350–400 years. We demonstrated that these grand cycles are formed by the interferences of two magnetic waves with close but not equal frequencies produced by the double solar dynamo action at different depths of the solar interior. These grand cycles are always separated by grand solar minima of Maunder minimum type, which regularly occurred in the past forming well-known Maunder, Wolf, Oort, Homeric, and other grand minima.
During these grand solar minima, there is a significant reduction of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance, which impose the reduction of terrestrial temperatures derived for these periods from the analysis of terrestrial biomass during the past 12,000 or more years. The most recent grand solar minimum occurred during Maunder Minimum (1645–1710), which led to reduction of solar irradiance by 0.22% from the modern one and a decrease of the average terrestrial temperature by 1.0–1.5°C.
This discovery of double dynamo action in the Sun brought us a timely warning about the upcoming grand solar minimum 1, when solar magnetic field and its magnetic activity will be reduced by 70%. This period has started in the Sun in 2020 and will last until 2053. During this modern grand minimum, one would expect to see a reduction of the average terrestrial temperature by up to 1.0°C, especially, during the periods of solar minima between the cycles 25–26 and 26–27, e.g. in the decade 2031–2043.
The reduction of a terrestrial temperature during the next 30 years can have important implications for different parts of the planet on growing vegetation, agriculture, food supplies, and heating needs in both Northern and Southern hemispheres. This global cooling during the upcoming grand solar minimum 1 (2020–2053) can offset for three decades any signs of global warming and would require inter-government efforts to tackle problems with heat and food supplies for the whole population of the Earth.”
“Periodic fluctuations in solar insolation has been recognized for centuries but ignored in the debate (probably because cannot distinguish variability due human impacts if recognized uncertainty in solar variability.)”
Not ignored. Please see William F. Ruddiman, Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate.
https://skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm
This is the work of Prof. Valentina Zharkova’s team, published in 2020. If their conclusions are valid, this should put a lot of people’s minds at rest over their prospects of drowning as coastlines disappear and heatwaves make life intolerable.
But on the other hand, the implications of an average one-degree C fall in temperatures could be stark. Large areas of the Canadian and Russian wheat belts would no longer be worth planting. demand for winter heating would soar. Our children might not know what a snow-free winter is. And of course, James Hanson would go ape!
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa236dad1-21d9-4ad8-8cd5-897e11177209_1170x766.jpeg
….. to ensure that we breed the Devil Covid variant.
FIFY
This says (in part):
Except that even this doesn’t fix the situation. The vaccinated keep catching the illness and passing it around.
Right. This is what no one wants to deal with , or admit.
Instead they keep to the same program of vilifying the unjabbed.
We must commit the vaccinated unto the cleansing flames. The sacrifice of their diseased bodies and minds will lead to the rebirth of mankind.
Feed the jabbed to lions for sport
Once again it is the UK’s fault.
Whatever UK did since 1688 till now is all wrong, and its merits are outweighed by the harm it did to Europe during the same period.
Someone pointed out that the invasion of Russia by France and Germany didn’t go well. Who was allied with Russia back then? UK!
Russia paid Uk all these favors by sending poison to spies who defected to there.
This time the UK is finally against Russia, when it doesn’t really matter anymore. If it allowed France or Germany or whatnot to destroy Russia we would never have to worry about it at all
Please expand on the current role of the UK. Any piece of information is valuable.
Soot pollution is accelerating climate-driven melting in Antarctica, a new study suggests, raising questions about how to protect the delicate continent from the increasing number of humans who want to visit.
Researchers estimate that soot, or black carbon, pollution in the most popular and accessible part of Antarctica is causing an extra inch of snowpack shrinkage every year.
The number of tourists visiting each year has ballooned from fewer than 10,000 in the early 1990s to nearly 75,000 people during the austral summer season that began in 2019, according to the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators.
“It really makes us question, is our presence really needed?” says Alia Khan, a glaciologist at Western Washington University and one of the authors of the new study, which was published in the journal Nature Communications. “We have quite a large black carbon footprint in Antarctica, which is enhancing snow and ice melt.”
Black carbon is the leftover junk from burning plants or fossil fuels. Soot in Antarctica comes primarily from the exhaust of cruise ships, vehicles, airplanes and electrical generators, although some pollution travels on the wind from other parts of the globe.
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/22/1082118865/soot-is-accelerating-snow-melt-in-popular-parts-of-antarctica-study-finds
But we are in a catch 22, without soot and the aerosol masking effect, temperature will spike..
We are in a predicament
I call BS on this one. There have been absolutely horrific explosions of sooth in historical times. Thousands of times greater than anything humans will ever come close to, including detonating the entire arsenal of nukes: Volcanoes. Still the most spectacular volcanic eruptions do not manage to change climate for more than a couple of years. (Many people die and empires collapse from these eruptions, but that Climate fellow just brush it off his shoulders and walk on as if nothing happened.
If you say so…we live in a BS, I mean a BAU Age..we have no choice to believe what we have to in order to keep the wheels turnings…🤸🌋🛢️
Pingback: Ahora es la guerra, provocada por el colapso económico, o nuevas leyes para el desarrollo económico » Eorense.com
Pingback: It’s Now War, Set Off by Economic Collapse—or New Laws for Economic Development – Biz Patriot
Pingback: Editorial EIR 23 feb. 2022: Ahora es la guerra, desencadenada por el colapso económico, o un nuevo orden para el desarrollo económico global – LaRouche Perú