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The years between 1981 and 2020 were very special years for the world economy because interest rates were generally falling:
In some sense, falling interest rates meant that debt was becoming increasingly affordable. The monthly out-of-pocket expense for a new $500,000 mortgage was falling lower and lower. Automobile payments for a new $30,000 vehicle could more easily be accommodated into a person’s budget. A business would find it more affordable to add $5,000,000 in new debt to open at an additional location. With these beneficial effects, it would be no surprise if a debt bubble were to form.
With an ever-lower cost of debt, the economy has had a hidden tailwind pushing it long between 1981 to 2020. Now that interest rates are again rising, the danger is that a substantial portion of this debt bubble may collapse. My concern is that the economy may be heading for an incredibly hard landing because of the inter-relationship between interest rates and energy prices (Figure 2), and the important role energy plays in powering the economy.
In this post, I will try to explain my concerns.
[1] Ever since civilization began, a combination of (a) energy consumption and (b) debt has been required to power the economy.
Under the laws of physics, energy is required to power the economy. This happens because it takes the “dissipation” of energy to perform any activity that contributes to GDP. The energy dissipated can be the food energy that a person eats, or it can be wood or coal or another material burned to provide energy. Sometimes the energy dissipated is in the form of electricity. Looking back, we can see the close relationship between total energy consumption and world total GDP.
The need for debt or some other approach that acts as a funding mechanism for capital expenditures (sale of shares of stock, for example), comes from the fact that humans make investments that will not produce a return for many years. For example, ever since civilization began, people have been planting crops. In some cases, there is a delay of a few months before a crop is produced; in other cases, such as with fruit or nut trees, there can be a delay of years before the investment pays back. Even the purchase by an individual of a home or a vehicle is, in a sense, an investment that will offer a return over a period of years.
With all parts of the economy benefiting from the lower interest rates (except, perhaps, banks and others lending the funds, who are making less profit from the lower interest rates), it is easy to see why lower interest rates would tend to stimulate new investment and drive up demand for commodities.
Commodities are used in great quantity, but the supply available at any one time is tiny by comparison. A sudden increase in demand will tend to send the commodity price higher because the quantity of the commodity available will need to be rationed among more would-be purchasers. A sudden decrease in the demand for a commodity (for example, crude oil, or wheat) will tend to send prices lower. Therefore, we see the strange sharp corners in Figure 2 that seem to be related to changing debt levels and higher or lower interest rates.
[2] The current plan of central banks is to raise interest rates aggressively. My concern is that this approach will leave commodity prices too low for producers. They will be tempted to decrease or stop production.
Politicians are concerned about the price of food and fuel being too high for consumers. Lenders are concerned about interest rates being too low to properly compensate for the loss of value of their investments due to inflation. The plan, which is already being implemented in the United States, is to raise interest rates and to significantly reverse Quantitative Easing (QE). Some people call the latter Quantitative Tightening (QT).
The concern that I have is that aggressively raising interest rates and reversing QE will lead to commodity prices that are too low for producers. There are likely to be many other impacts as well, such as the following:
- Lower energy supply, due to cutbacks in production and lack of new investment
- Lower food supply, due to inadequate fertilizer and broken supply lines
- Much defaulting of debt
- Pension plans that reduce or stop payments because of debt-related problems
- Falling prices of stock
- Defaults on derivatives
[3] My analysis shows how important increased energy consumption has been to economic growth over the last 200 years. Energy consumption per capita has been growing during this entire period, except during times of serious economic distress.
Figure 4 shows the amazing growth in world energy consumption between 1820 and 2010. In the early part of the period, the energy used was mostly wood burned as fuel. In some parts of the world, animal dung was also used as fuel. Gradually, other fuels were added to the mix.
Figure 5 takes the same information shown in Figure 4 and calculates the average approximate annual increase in world energy consumption over 10-year periods. A person can see from this chart that the periods from 1951-1960 and from 1961-1970 were outliers on the high side. This was the time of rebuilding after World War II. Many families were able to own a car for the first time. The US highway interstate system was begun. Many pipelines and electricity transmission lines were built. This building continued into the 1971-1980 period.
Figure 6 displays the same information as Figure 5, except that each column is divided into two pieces. The lower (blue) portion represents the average annual growth in population during each period. The part left over at the top (in red) represents the growth in energy consumption that was available for increases in standard of living.
Figure 7 shows the same information as Figure 6, displayed as an area chart. I have also shown some of the distressing events that happened when growth in population was, in effect, taking up essentially all of energy consumption growth. The world economy could not grow normally. There was a tendency toward conflict. Unusual events would happen during these periods, including the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union and the restrictions associated with the COVID pandemic.
The economy is a self-organizing system that behaves strangely when there is not enough inexpensive energy of the right types available to the system. Wars tend to start. Layers of government may disappear. Strange lockdowns may occur, such as the current restrictions in China.
[4] The energy situation at the time of rising interest rates in the 1960 to 1980 period was very different from today.
If we define years with high inflation rates as those with inflation rates of 5% or higher, Figure 8 shows that the period with high US inflation rates included nearly all the years from 1969 through 1982. Using a 5% inflation cutoff, the year 2021 would not qualify as a high inflation rate year.
It is only when we look at annualized quarterly data that inflation rates start spiking to high levels. Inflation rates have been above 5% in each of the four quarters ended 2022-Q1. Trade problems related to the Ukraine Conflict have tended to add to price pressures recently.
Underlying these price spikes are increases in the prices of many commodities. Some of this represents a bounce back from artificially low prices that began in late 2014, probably related to the discontinuation of US QE3 (See Figure 2). These prices were far too low for producers. Coal and natural gas prices have also needed to rise, as a result of depletion and prior low prices. Food prices are also rising rapidly, since food is grown and transported using considerable quantities of fossil fuels.
The main differences between that period leading up to 1980 and now are the following:
[a] The big problem in the 1970s was spiking crude oil prices. Now, our problems seem to be spiking crude oil, natural gas and coal prices. In fact, nuclear power may also be a problem because a significant portion of uranium processing is performed in Russia. Thus, we now seem to be verging on losing nearly all our energy supplies to conflict or high prices!
[b] In the 1970s, there were many solutions to the crude oil problem, which were easily implemented. Electricity production could be switched from crude oil to coal or nuclear, with little problem, apart from building the new infrastructure. US cars were very large and fuel inefficient in the early 1970s. These could be replaced with smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles that were already being manufactured in Europe and Japan. Home heating could be transferred to natural gas or propane, to save crude oil for places where energy density was really needed.
Today, we are told that a transition to green energy is a solution. Unfortunately, this is mostly wishful thinking. At best, a transition to green energy will need a huge investment of fossil fuels (which are increasingly unavailable) over a period of at least 30 to 50 years if it is to be successful. See my article, Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer. Vaclav Smil, in his book Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects, discusses the need for very long transitions because energy supply needs to match the devices using it. Furthermore, new energy types are generally only add-ons to other supply, not replacements for those supplies.
[c] The types of economic growth in (a) the 1960 to 1980 period and (b) the period since 2008 are very different. In the earlier of these periods (especially prior to 1973), it was easy to extract oil, coal and natural gas inexpensively. Inflation-adjusted oil prices of less than $20 per barrel were typical. An ever-increasing supply of this oil seemed to be available. New machines (created with fossil fuels) made workers increasingly efficient. The economy tended to “overheat” if interest rates were not repeatedly raised (Figure 1). While higher interest rates could be expected to slow the economy, this was of little concern because rapid growth seemed to be inevitable. The supply of finished goods and services made by the economy was growing rapidly, even with headwinds from the higher interest rates.
On the other hand, in the 2008 to 2020 period, economic growth is largely the result of financial manipulation. The system has been flooded with increasing amounts of debt at ever lower interest rates. By the time of the lockdowns of 2020, would-be workers were being paid for doing nothing. World production of finished goods and services declined in 2020, and it has had difficulty rising since. In the first quarter of 2022, the US economy contracted by -1.4%. If headwinds from higher interest rates and QT are added, the economic system is likely to encounter substantial debt defaults and increasing breakdowns of supply lines.
[5] Today’s spiking energy prices appear to be much more closely related to the problems of the 1913 to 1945 era than they are to the problems of the late 1970s.
Looking back at Figure 7, our current period is more like the period between the two world wars than the period in the 1970s that we often associate with high inflation. In both periods, the “red” portion of the chart (the portion I identify with rising standard of living), has pretty much disappeared. In both the 1913 to 1945 period and today, it is nearly all the energy supplies other than biofuels that are disappearing.
In the 1913 to 1945 period, the problem was coal. Mines were becoming increasingly depleted, but raising coal prices to pay for the higher cost of extracting coal from depleted mines tended to make the coal prohibitively expensive. Mine operators tried to reduce wages, but this was not a solution either. Fighting broke out among countries, almost certainly related to inadequate coal supplies. Countries wanted coal to supply to their citizens so that industry could continue, and so that citizens could continue heating their homes.
As stated at the beginning of this section, today’s problem is that nearly all our energy supplies are becoming unaffordable. In some sense, wind and solar may look better, but this is because of mandates and subsidies. They are not suitable for operating the world economy within any reasonable time frame.
There are other parallels to the 1913 to 1945 period. One of the big problems of the 1930s was prices that would not rise high enough for farmers to make a profit. Oil prices in the United States were extraordinarily low then. BP 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy reports that the average oil price in 1931, in 2020 US$, was $11.08. This is the lowest inflation-adjusted price of any year back to 1865. Such a price was almost certainly too low for producers to make a profit. Low prices, relative to rising costs, have recently been problems for both farmers and oil producers.
Another major problem of the 1930s was huge income disparity. Wide income disparity is again an issue today, thanks to increased specialization. Competition with unskilled workers in low wage countries is also an issue.
It is important to note that the big problem of the 1930s was deflation rather than inflation, as the debt bubble started popping in 1929.
[6] If a person looks only at the outcome of raising interest rates in the 1960s to 1980 timeframe, it is easy to get a misleading idea of the impact of increased interest rates now.
If people look only at what happened in the 1980s, the longer-term impact of the spike in interest rates doesn’t seem too severe. The world economy was growing well before the interest rates were raised. After the peak in interest rates, the world economy generally continued to grow. As a result of the high oil prices and the spiking interest rates, the world hastened its transition to using a bit less crude oil per person.
At the same time, the world economy was able to expand the use of other energy products, at least through 2018.
Since 2019, our problem has been that the total energy supply has not been keeping up with the rising population. The cost of extraction of all kinds of oil, coal and natural gas keeps rising due to depletion, but the ability of customers to afford the higher prices of finished goods and services made with those energy products does not rise to match these higher costs. Energy prices probably would have spiked in 2020 if it were not for COVID-related restrictions. Production of oil, coal and natural gas has not been able to rise sufficiently after the lockdowns for economies to fully re-open. This is the primary reason for the recent spiking of energy prices.
Turning to inflation rates, the relationship between higher interest rates (Figure 1) and annual inflation rates (Figure 8) is surprisingly not very close. Inflation rates rose during the 1960 to 1973 period despite rising interest rates, mostly likely because of the rapid growth of the economy from an increased per-capita supply of inexpensive energy.
Figure 8 shows that inflation rates did not come down immediately after interest rates were raised to a high level in 1980, either. There was a decline in the inflation rate to 4% in 1983, but it was not until the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991 that inflation rates have tended to stay close to 2% per year.
[7] A more relevant recent example with respect to the expected impact of rising interest rates is the impact of the increase in US short-term interest rates in the 2004 to 2007 period. This led to the subprime debt collapse in the US, associated with the Great Recession of 2008-2009.
Looking back at Figure 1, one can see the effect of raising short-term interest rates in the 2004 to 2007 era. This eventually led to the Great Recession of 2008-2009. I wrote about this in my academic paper, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis, published in the journal Energy in 2010.
The situation we are facing today is much more severe than in 2008. The debt bubble is much larger. The shortage of energy products has spread beyond oil to coal and natural gas, as well. The idea of raising interest rates today is very much like going into the Great Depression and deciding to raise interest rates because bankers don’t feel like they are getting an adequate share of the goods and services produced by the economy. If there really aren’t enough goods and services for everyone, giving lenders a larger share of the total supply cannot work out well.
[8] The problems we are encountering have been hidden for many years by an outdated understanding of how the economy operates.
Because of the physics of the economy, it behaves very differently than most people assume. People almost invariably assume that all aspects of the economy can “stay together” regardless of whether there are shortages of energy or of other products. People also assume that shortages will be immediately become obvious through high prices, without realizing the huge role interest rates and debt levels play. People further assume that these spiking prices will somehow bring about greater supply, and the whole system will go on as before. Furthermore, they expect that whatever resources are in the ground, which we have the technical capability to extract, can be extracted.
It is important to note that prices are not necessarily a good indicator of shortages. Just as a fever can have many causes, high prices can have many causes.
The economy can only continue as long as all of its important parts continue. We cannot assume that reported reserves of anything can really be extracted, even if the reserves have been audited by a reliable auditor. What actually can be extracted depends on prices staying high enough to generate funds for additional investment as required. The amount that can be extracted also depends on the continuation of international supply lines providing goods such as steel pipe. The continued existence of governments that can keep order in the areas where extraction is to take place is important, as well.
What we should be most concerned about is a very rapidly shrinking economic system that cannot accommodate very many people. It seems that such a situation might occur if the debt bubble is popped and too many supply lines are broken. There may be a time lag between when interest rates are raised and when the adverse impacts on the economy are seen. This is a reason why central bankers should be very cautious about the increases in interest rates they make as well as QT. The situation may turn out much worse than planned!
The immediate future of the global supply chain rests on a bargaining table in San Francisco, where the union representing all West Coast dockworkers is hashing out a new contract with the assembled bosses of maritime shipping.
The current contract, which covers the International Longshore and Warehouse Union’s more than 22,000 workers at the 29 ports dotting the Pacific coast of the U.S., is set to expire July 1.
At stake is the continuing flow of goods into the country, after two years of disruptions to the supply chain from pandemic lockdowns, material shortages, soaring fuel prices and the occasional giant ship getting stuck in the Suez Canal. Forty percent of all U.S. maritime imports pass through the West Coast ports, with more than 30% of all containerized imports arriving at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which together make up the nation’s largest port complex.
LA Times
Workers want raises. Shippers want robots. The supply chain hinges on reaching a deal
Sam Dean
Sun, June 5, 2022, 8:00 AM
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/workers-want-raises-shippers-want-120049124.html
What’s really unique about dockworkers around the world is their strategic location in the world’s choke points. Working in the ports provides a lot of leverage,” Wilson said. “The money is there, the shippers are accumulating massive amounts of profit, while most people aren’t.”
West Coast dockworkers are the highest paid logistics workers in the United States, but Wilson noted that “these jobs are still increasingly being squeezed — workers at the docks haven’t had a raise in years, there’s ongoing pressure to work more hours and work through the night and other demands that would require hiring more dockworkers who are union.”
10% raise across the board for the West Coast longshoremen would raise labor costs on the West Coast from $3.8 billion to roughly $4.2 billion. That $400-million increase represents just over a quarter of 1% of the industry’s profits last year. The estimated cost of the 10-day work stoppage in 2002 ran into the billions for the U.S. economy. Ten days of profits lost out of the $150-billion year would add up to more than $4 billion for the shipping companies alone.
For the record, western media before and after February 2022:
https://farroupim.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/westmedia.jpg
Boris Johnson faces a ‘no confidence’ vote at 8 pm BST.
Hopefully he will win LOL.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jun/06/boris-johnson-confidence-vote-graham-brady-tory-mps-live
The result is expected to be announced at 9pm BST.
I hope he loses so the gentlemen at London will see a Hindu Prime Minister.
Canadian dairy farmers seek second milk price hike this year, citing rising costs
Dairy commission says it will issue its decision around June 17
Milk prices in Canada could be going up for the second time in a year following a rare request by Dairy Farmers of Canada for a mid-year price hike due to inflation.
Canadian dairy farmers are grappling with never-before-seen price increases on goods and services they need to produce milk, the industry lobby group said in a statement Thursday.
Yet industry observers say people can’t afford another price hike.
They warn that dairy processors will likely tack on extra increases if the request is approved, pushing retail costs to untenable levels and increasing food insecurity in the country.
https://www.abbynews.com/news/canadian-dairy-farmers-seek-second-milk-price-hike-this-year-citing-rising-costs/
This seems to be part of the problem:
Canada tries to set prices for milk and dairy, on an annual basis. The process increasingly isn’t working. (How about allowing competition determine prices?)
Return of ‘work from home’ plan to save fuel in event of crisis caused by Ukraine war
People will be ordered to work from home in the event of a major fuel crisis sparked by the war in Ukraine, under secret Government emergency plans.
The Irish Independent has learned confidential details of an emergency planning exercise held 10 days ago between all the major state agencies and the Government.
The high-level planning exercise proposed three fuel supply deficit scenarios, and possible consequences were presented and discussed.
Delegates were given a scenario of a 20pc diesel supply deficit in September and a 35pc drop in supply in December. The third and most extreme scenario proposed for February 2023, is where gas and oil supplies cannot meet the demand for electricity generation or farmers preparing to cut silage.
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/return-of-work-from-home-plan-to-save-fuel-in-event-of-crisis-caused-by-ukraine-war-41724210.html
Work from home = Save fuel
May have nothing to do with a health emergency.
Like box and lid fit together, the justification for lockdowns and energy shortages fit together, but in infinite regression, each presented as if the other phenomenon is an exclusive causation creating the situation. This helps political groups justify their existence. Of course we on OFW see the link, but the masses seem blinded to this.
When the situation is being misleadingly conveyed this way, a logic bomb is created, where reason eventually must collide. This is similar to two neutron stars spinning in towards each other in a decaying orbit caught in each other’s mutual gravity until….reality!
After reading the EMA’S study on Comirnaty (Pfizer) it appears that they have identified contamination that leads to the risk of transmissable spongiform encephalopathy (prions) and tetrahydrofuran which causes organ toxicity and it’s a carcinogen
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9txrVFXIAEa2om?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9txrUUXsA4qLBs?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9txrUVWEAA-iNs?format=jpg&name=4096×4096
It looks like you are talking about two different things here:
1. transmissable spongiform encephalopathy (prions)
2. tetrahydrofuran which causes organ toxicity and it’s a carcinogen
According to Wikipedia,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetrahydrofuran
Tetrahydrofuran (THF), or oxolane, is an organic compound with the formula (CH2)4O. Being polar and having a wide liquid range, THF is a versatile solvent. If THF is used in making the vaccine, it would seem to have a high risk of being a contaminant. It does seem to cause cancer.
Where in the vaccine process would “transmissable spongiform encephalopathy (prions)” come into play?
There were due dates for an evaluation in the second link. Did this happen?
Another sign of improving demand from Asia is the soaring fuel crack margins that are going through the roof.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUkjbkjWYAEA3tR?format=jpg&name=900×900
Asia does look to be very short of diesel and gasoline.
Almost $10 a gallon:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUkTCJ8WYAEu2Pr?format=png&name=small
OH MY F789ING GAWD.
Dr. Malcolm Kendrick
A bit of a pause
For those of you who are regular readers of my blog, you may have noted little activity recently. I found myself diagnosed with prostate cancer, and then radiotherapy, and anti-androgens, then in the midst of that I went down with COVID19. So, energy levels have been a little low. Particularly my ability to concentrate on writing, anything of great value.
I am going to give it a month, or so, to see how I feel. Then, I hope to be back on-line after that. I wil get back to approving comments this week. Thank you.
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2022/06/06/a-bit-of-a-pause/#respond
Kendrick has stated that he has had all the jabs – due to mandates on doctors in the UK.
Recall Dr Ryan Cole who owns a big pathology lab in the US stating he is seeing very abnormally high levels of cancers – often very aggressive — in vaxxed people — being noted on biopsies.
Comment:
Marcia T
June 6, 2022 at 10:27 am
Dearest Malcolm – perhaps a little too familiar?
But you are – amongst all the writers I read regarding health, you’re definitely the tops. Do I remember correctly that you had to get the jab in order to keep treating your patients? Do you suppose that has anything to do with your current ill-health? Every time my husband shows signs of failing, that’s what I blame; so along those lines check out Dr. Ryan Cole – a pathologist here in the states. Amazing what he’s seen since the jabs rolled out.
Get well – stay well – you’re a voice the world needs, desperately!
Poor man, and I hope he recovers.
But……there was no mandate in the UK, merely the threat, and it was dropped: immense pressure from government and peers, certainly, but not compulsion.
If he had simply had the sense to hold out, he wouldn’t have been put at additional risk.
The doctor is probably a victim of stress from receiving the numerous jabs. He’ll get over it.
He likely has a case of Long Covid. The fatality rate is low for covid but it’s still important to vaccinate and stay up to date with the booster schedule to prevent long covid.
Brilliant diagnosis, D. Stevens: in fact, not to boost could prove to be very unsafe!
Please note, everyone, how sound medical advice like this, based on The Science and the opinion of every doctor in the world, can be distinguished from mis, mal and disinformation spread by uneducated loons.
I am well. Just somewhat slow at getting a new post up.
Euro commodity index – new highs
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUj_QXyXwAE_Cgk?format=jpg&name=large
Boy that u’re looks like a J curve…is that good?
EU sanctions fallout: Serbia to stop receiving Russian oil via Adriatic pipeline
Oil company Naftna industrija Srbije (NIS), of which 56.15% of the share capital is owned by Russia’s Gazprom Neft, will no longer receive Russian crude oil from the Adriatic oil pipeline JANAF following the EU’s latest set of Russia sanctions, the energy ministry announced Sunday.
Serbia is not the only European country affected by the new set of EU sanctions – which bans Russian crude oil imports by sea – the ministry told broadcaster N1 TV, adding that it was doing “everything to ensure secure supply.”
NIS’ crude oil supply comes in tanker ships via the Omišalj harbour, on Croatia’s Krk island.
“That means that there is no possibility of Russian crude oil being delivered to the refinery in the Serbian city of Pančevo anymore, but NIS can import any other crude oil, and has been importing oil from Iraq and some other countries in the previous period,” a representative of the ministry has said.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/eu-sanctions-fallout-serbia-to-stop-receiving-russian-oil-via-adriatic-pipeline/
Serbia is now landlocked (post-Balkan/NATO wars) and dependent on others for oil transit. The Croat pipeline operator is cutting them off.
I’m sure that Croatia is very distraught at having to take these measures. /sarc
DEF Fluid – Diesel Exhaust Fluid Shortage from June 2022 to Sept 2022
The shortages our country is experiencing are making their way to diesel fuel and Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF). If the current shortages of mechanics, trucks, and drivers does not improve then shortages may continue to get worse, so plan ahead. As an owner operator, you should have oil and filters for at least two oil changes, a spare set of tires, and a few extra gallons of DEF, as well. The bottom line is that freight won’t move without DEF.
https://buysinopec.com/blogs/news/def-fluid-diesel-exhaust-fluid-shortage-from-june-2022-to-sept-2022
Receipt fom trucker in Latta, South Carolina:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUj6H6LWYAMSd30?format=jpg&name=900×900
Think of all the points he’s accumulating on that card though!
But Petro is cheaper in South Carolina and so are taxes
WSOCTV.com News Staff
March 11, 2022 at 6:27 pm EST
CLOVER, S.C. — Gas prices continue to reach record highs, and some North Carolinians are driving to South Carolina to fill up for less.
According to AAA, people in North Carolina are now paying $4.19 a gallon, but in South Carolina it is 11 cents cheaper at $4.08.
The difference in cost is due to the gas tax in South Carolina being 10 cents cheaper than in North Carolina.
According to sources, the Pakistan Railways (PR) is bearing the loss of Rs20 million daily due to a rise in the price of diesel. The authorities have forwarded recommendations for the increase in fares by 15 to 20 per cent.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUj_bRaWYAYP7J0?format=jpg&name=medium
eddy
i wish you could write a comment that was worth exercising my typing finger on
“If Putin isn’t stopped”, writes Norman. Them’s fighting words. And this is the first time I have seen them articulated online by anyone who wasn’t “on the payroll”.
Who’s going to stop him, Norman? You and Lindsey Graham? Your mission, should you choose to accept it, will involve getting into the Kremlin, getting on with the job, and getting out without being nabbed by the security staff. We can supply you guys with WW11 surplus rifles, parachutes, and cyanide capsules—just ask Miss Moneypenny—and we can get Tom Cruise to drop you off over the Onion Domes. We’re all out of camouflage gear but we have a couple of orange jump suits not currently needed at Gitmo.
Also, I’ve asked Henry Kissinger if he’d like to go along as he knows the corridors of power in Moscow very well, but he screamed, “Not on your Nelly!” So I guess you’re on your own. And in the unfortunate case that you don’t make it back, we’ll deny all knowledge of you, just like we have about the US and UK military chaps who were recently captured in Mariupol.
Anyone else on OFW feel like ice cream after seeing images of the Kremlin. Wouldn’t it be an experience to sit outside and eat one, if they sold them there? Bet they’d do it too just for kicks, good way to laugh at the world… what’s the problem with Russia being a existential threat to the ROTW they’re just selling ice creams
I see norm with bulging diapers boarding the Fodder Express to fight Putin!
I’ve often wondered what eddy would do for subject matter were it not for the lower half of the human body.
I can’t be the only one to have noticed that.
it’s cost a lot
but i’ve hired fast eddy as my diversionary stunt double
Right now he’s learning how to say MOREON in Russian
and write stoooooopid in cyrillic script
Remember the glorious episode in Life of Brian, where he’s writing ‘Romans go home’
Eddy is going to divert the Kremlin guards by writing Putin is a MOREON on the Kremlin wall
while i nip in and do the dirty deed
Heard the Amber Room is a great place to hang out ..no pun intended.
Reconstruction
Edit
President of Russia Vladimir Putin with Greek Prime Minister Konstantinos Simitis and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder (right) in the Amber Room (2003)
In 1979, the Soviet government decided to construct a replica of the Amber Room at Tsarskoye Selo, a process that was to take 24 years and require 40 Russian and German experts in amber craftsmanship.[2][3] Using original drawings and old black-and-white photographs, every attempt was made to duplicate the original Amber Room. This included the 350 shades of amber in the original panels and fixtures that adorned the room.[30] A major problem was the lack of skilled workers, since amber carving was a nearly lost art form.[30]
Amber room on the 2004 postage stamp.
The financial difficulties that plagued the reconstruction project from the start were solved with the donation of US$3.5 million from the German company E.ON.[31] By 2003, the work of the Russian craftsmen was mostly completed.[30] The new room was dedicated by Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder at the 300th anniversary of the city of Saint Petersburg.[32] In Kleinmachnow, near Berlin, there is a miniature Amber Room, fabricated after the original.[33] The Berlin miniature collector Ulla Klingbeil had this copy made of original East Prussian amber.
See, we can get along folks
Seriously Norm.
We must stop Trump he is fascism coming to get us.
We must stop Putin he is going to take over Europe. He will never stop.
We must stop people giving misinfo on vaxxes.
Please Norm
W A K E T H E F U C K UP.
You have a brain but it appears to be on vacation.
This saddens me deeply.
There are people who bend to authority and the State willingly. They believe what the Media tells them because the State would never play its own people. SkyNews is a great example as they are just the UK version of CNN. They spout the government line. On a rare occasion one of their presenters decides to go against it but that is rare. My take is they move away from the government line when they can NO longer defend it [insert CNN].
Here in Britain, although people might see politicians as, at worst, fools, liars, grifters or clowns, that they might be treacherous murderers – and on a large scale – is utterly inconceivable.
you may have missed the point niko
>>>If a nation does not produce sufficient indigenous energy from within its borders to satisfy the needs of its people, then it must be begged, borrowed or stolen from elsewhere, or risk sinking back to the median level of energy usage. (NP)<<<<<<
All national leaders are faced with this problem.
Which is why wars break out, because risk no 1 is to the leaders job, or head, if the national economy collapses.
So nations must thrust outwards—this is where empires come from, and how they are sustained.
The USA didnt get involved in energy wars until after 1970–the year of peak oil discovery.
this is why the USA will turn to fascism, because a fascist leader promises MAGA, just as Trump did. Fascist leaders blame 'others' for misfortune. A common trait.
No leader is going to throw up his hands and say ''Thats all folks''—they most promise 'more'.
This is why Putin must thrust outwards, because Russia is in the same, (maybe slightly different) situation. Putin wants the old USSR back. (he's already said that Ukraine is not a country. (MRGA?)
My take on the details might be skewed a bit, but the motivation is there. Leaders have no choice but to try to survive.
They can see the future better than i can, and the picture isn't pretty.
(and vaxxing is a side issue)
I agree with all your energy stances Norm but I disagree that Trump is a fascist, he was not the bogeyman that he is made out to be. He has his faults and if we had thirty years we could examine them but alas….
As far as Putin and Russia, they don’t want more energy as they have so much of their own for now that they seem to be exporting it. Russia is just pissed with the west for not sticking to there agreements and no longer trusts that diplomacy is an option. Anyway you might want to consider getting used to Russia winning this war and what that may entail for the EU.
And hey…..don’t get boostered.
56% of Russias economy is drawn from Energy exports
those exports are finite, probably in the short term rather than long term.
Russia in a cold country, and needs warm water ports.
when FF energy goes into severe terminal decline, Russians will still need to eat, and sell food if possible to the highest bidder. If some don’t bid high enough, well tough.
Ukraine is a perfect food source.
As to a fascist USA, Trump had a fascist political outlook (lock her up??), and he tried to overturn the election, but i agree he wouldnt have been bright enough to control and run a fascist state.
However, others certainly would have. And will in the future, when US energy also goes into terminal decline.
It will be at that point the the masses will accede to anything, to get back the lifestyle they think they are entitled to.. Promises will be made, and believed.
When they are not met there will be violent insurrection. (its the fault if ‘those others’) Russians– muslims, you name it.
how all this will pan out in detail is anybodys guess–I’m just offering the broad outline, no more.
The US cutting Japan off from its oil supply circa 1940 sure seems like an energy war.
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/overall-deaths-in-australia-where?s=r
You can sense the trepidation building among the MOREONS… they do not understand what is happening ….
But that does not matter… what matters is the alarming numbers … this is ramping up fear … and creating confusion — how can this be happening — the injections are safe and protect from severe illness and death
We did what we were told … but why all this severe illness and death… the vaccines protect against all that…
This should be impossible. Maybe they don’t protect against Long Covid — only Short Covid????
OMG … maybe if we take more boosters????
Then as the situation worsens… and the E-AW E-AW of the ambulances is pretty much constant… terror grips them … this creates even greater confusion…
The government announces a state of emergency – Long Covid is a disaster… the vax is working take more (even though it’s obvious at best it doesn’t work – but they will never blame the vax – never!)….
Hospitals are totally overrun – the scenario they predicted if we didn’t lockdown and inject…
All the docs and nurses are injected so they start dropping like flies… OMG OMG… what can we do??? The worst case scenario is upon us!
I know — let’s go back into an extreme lockdown — we need to stop this Long Covid disaster by stopping the spread of covid – and we know lockdowns are very effective … however if it’s a total lockdown – like Shanghai — we can still win this war.
And the MOREONS (even the ones who marched about demanding Freedom)… will willingly lock down … there will be military on the streets — possibly with shoot to kill orders (fully supported by the MOREONS)….
The ambulances will continue to race back and forth as the situation becomes more grim E-AW E-AW (got the sirens)… God help us pray the MOREONS>…
Supply chains are at a breaking point says the CCM… the military is stepping in to deliver food… the MOREONS remain calm — the military will feed us squawk the MOREONS… Trust the government…
Now everyone is doing what they are told – and they are told that our very survival is at stake – please stay home – please stay calm….
I don’t see anyone breaking martial law — do you think anyone would dare to do this — knowing their very survival is at stake? Every street corner will have a military patrol… people will be told There is No Food in the Shops – Stay Home the Food will Come to You…
The 911 line will be dedicated to snitching on anyone who dares step out the door … and the snipers will drop them within a few steps of their homes… this will be televised using drones to amp up the fear even further…
Meanwhile all the streaming services will be free for everyone … there will be special episodes of Dancing with Stars and various other Reality Shows (deemed essential)… live concerts on the Tee Vee featured all your favourite acts…
Hopefully this is when the Fentanyl will arrive… Bono will urge everyone to ‘drink the F KookAid!’
Lots of people will do that… and never wake up of course…
Then the food will not arrive… and not arrive… and not arrive… and the snipers will Lock and Load – just in case someone decides they want to brave the Black Death and try to rob a neighbour – or snatch a child and roast it….
And then we may be fortunate enough (depending on where you live) to receive a fusillade of atomic bombs pre-empting the starvation…
Nobody survives. Nobody.
https://sd.keepcalms.com/i/keep-calm-and-accept-your-death.png
Went to the gents in a restaurant here in Germany yesterday.
Saw a man collapsed unconscious in front of a urinal. He had just been found by a couple of friends.
Late 20s, fit and muscular looking.
When the ambulance took him away about half an hour later his face was uncovered, so I assume he was still alive.
What shocked me was how young he looked.
It wasn’t the booze either – it’s a nice family place.
If he hadn’t been boosted he would not have survived!
He’s probably telling everyone who visits him in the hospital that as he awaits a heart transplant
I’d like to think there is a limit to stoooopidity … but it is infinite
If it wasn’t the booze maybe it was the boost???
How soon can we say to people – time to get of the boost it is killing you?
Perhaps a new term is required.
Vaxaholic.
they can go to VA meetings.
“Hi my name’s Karen, I have been 3 whole weeks without a booster…………….”
No one ever talks about Medium Covid: as ever, the hard-working backbone of all Terrible Pandemics is ignored!
Fast Eddie, the Prophet, visions from the eternal..he has been touched by the Gift.
Mary41 min ago
Alex! I’m a lawyer in Australia, the increase in mortality in Australia is absolutely shocking. Truly scary. Strange signals are now showing up all over the place. You cannot drive anywhere without being confronted by an ambulance screaming past – this was something I used to see once every few weeks and yet I now see several, each day.
Work wise, our office has seen a huge increase in the number of estates we are dealing with, compared to the usual amount we would handle. On average, it takes about 3 weeks for a Grant of Probate to issue from our State’s Supreme Court – currently it is taking over 2 months for a Probate to issue (I can only imagine it is due to the excessive number of Applications being submitted, due to the excess deaths).
In addition, Death Certificates usually have a specific date of death, however if someone has died alone at home and not been found for several days, a Death Certificate will show a period of between two specific dates (for example, ‘between 3 March 2022 – 6 March 2022’).
This is rare, and at our practice we would usually only see one or two of these a year. I saw three such Death Certificates come into our office for new estates, in one week alone. Essentially, these are people who died, at home, alone, completely unexpectedly. In addition, life insurance claims are taking so much longer to process than usual, because of the excess number of claims currently being made.
I had a rep of a major Australian life insurance company phone our office to apologise for the delay on a specific estate, and she said the delay was caused by a huge increase in deaths that they are seeing (she said a huge number of additional employees had to be hired to process the excess) and quote ‘they are not covid deaths’.
We are just a small practice, but I would imagine any law firm dealing with estate law would be seeing the same thing. I don’t know how the Governments can not only let this continue, but actively push these failed products onto the people of this country.
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/overall-deaths-in-australia-where/comments?s=r
The PR Team is not sweating this …just blame everything on Long Covid…
And guess what happens??? Yep — gotta get another booster cuz it would be much worse without the boosters hahahahaha