A Few Insights Based on CDC Data Regarding COVID and its Vaccines

My background is as a casualty actuary. I am used to looking at data from standard sources and trying to make some sense of it. I am hesitant to take someone else’s word for what the data show because I know that it is easy for mistakes to creep in. In this post, I will provide observations based on data from the databases of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Johns Hopkins University. Hopefully, some of these observations will prove insightful.

I am aware that the proper reference for COVID is “COVID-19.” In this post, I have elected to use the shorter reference, except when shown in an exhibit prepared using software developed by someone else (Figure 3).

[1] Recent data show that COVID vaccines don’t really prevent a person from catching and passing along the virus that causes COVID. The CDC has recently changed its guidance to reflect the fact that the vaccines mostly reduce the chance of severe illness. Vaccines are still recommended by the CDC, not because they reduce transmission, but because they may reduce COVID-related healthcare costs.

Figure 1. Number of US vaccine doses provided to various age groups, based on data from a CDC database.

It is clear from Figure 1 that the big initial push for vaccine delivery peaked around April 2021. The rollout was substantially accomplished by July 2021. Then there was a second, lower peak, related primarily to boosters in the November 2021 to January 2022 period.

Figure 2 shows the pattern of newly reported COVID cases, relative to the first round of COVID vaccinations, based on data reported to the Johns Hopkins University database.

Figure 2.US reported COVID cases by month based on data from the Johns Hopkins University database.

Clearly, the first round of vaccinations did not put an end to new COVID cases. In fact, the CDC started becoming concerned about transmission among the vaccinated as early as July 2021. At that time, it started recommending that everyone wear a mask in conditions that represented high transmission. It also began using the term breakthrough infection to describe the (hopefully uncommon) condition of coming down with COVID after being vaccinated.

In fact, back when the Delta wave hit in the fall of 2021, it was possible to blame at least part of the problem on the lesser-vaccinated Southern part of the US. The well-vaccinated Northeast seemed to fare relatively much better (Figure 3).

Figure 3. US reported COVID cases (moving 7-day average, relative to population) by part of the US based on data from the Johns Hopkins University database. Visualization is available at this web address.

Figure 3 indicates that a quite different situation occurred when the Omicron variant hit close to the beginning of 2022. The heavily vaccinated Northeast clearly led the way, both in timing and in the number of COVID cases relative to population. The relatively less vaccinated South was much lower, close to the Midwest in its number of cases, relative to population.

The Omicron variant is very different from the original Wuhan version of the virus. This difference between virus variants is at least part reason that current mRNA vaccines fail to block transmission of the Omicron virus. Instead, current vaccines mostly reduce severe symptoms. This is very similar to the explanation we have heard when getting influenza vaccines each year. Researchers make a guess with respect to which particular strains will be circulating the following year. The level of protection will vary, depending upon whether the researchers’ guesses prove to be accurate the following year.

There are also indications from patterns elsewhere (and from theory) that it is not good practice to vaccinate at the time a virus is already starting to circulate widely. The booster vaccinations that took place in November and December 2021 (Figure 1) may have inadvertently raised, rather than lowered, their recipients’ chances of catching COVID. But, of course, the illness would be (on average) relatively mild. This lower severity of outcome is to be expected, partly because the mutated virus seems to be less virulent than the Wuhan COVID virus, and partly because the vaccines tend to reduce the severity of the disease.

The CDC started moving in the direction of treating vaccinated and unvaccinated people alike back in July 2021. Now, with the evidence from the Omicron wave coming in, it has had no choice but to move even further in the direction of treating everyone alike. For example, for domestic travel, the CDC recommends tests for both vaccinated and unvaccinated travelers if there is a concern about COVID. Recent CDC recommendations with respect to the wearing of masks do not depend upon vaccine status, either.

The idea of requiring everyone to be vaccinated likely originated from the cost-savings and profits that were expected to occur if people could be vaccinated and kept out of hospitals. Employers were very much in favor of such cost-savings because their workers likely would be able to stay on the job more of the time. Insurance companies were in favor of such an approach as well, because it would lower health care claim costs. Hospitals and physicians were in favor of the recommended COVID vaccines because physicians could perform more elective surgery (and thus make more money) if the hospitals were not full of COVID patients. Of course, the drug companies selling vaccines were in favor of selling more vaccines, too.

Furthermore, we know from prior experience with viruses that the ability to stop transmission with a vaccine varies greatly from virus to virus. Forecasting that any proposed vaccine will prevent transmission is a very “iffy” proposition. The viruses that cause the common cold, HIV and SARS are related (in some way) to the virus that causes COVID. Despite decades of research, none of these viruses has a successful vaccine. This suggests that COVID cannot be stopped by a vaccine, either. We also know, in general, that if a virus jumps from an animal to human hosts, transmission can only be stopped if all of the animal hosts are successfully vaccinated, as well.

[2] COVID vaccines used in the US do not seem to have done much to reduce total COVID deaths.

Figure 4. Number of US COVID deaths by month on two slightly different reporting bases. CDC data are based on death certificate data, reported up to several months after the date of the death, but backdated to the date of actual death. Thus, its indications will tend to be low for recent months. The Johns Hopkins University database contains reports sent in by providers. It should be more complete for recent dates.

Vaccinations started in December of 2020, but there were about 20% more COVID deaths in 2021 than in 2020. Part of the problem is that after the Delta peak in deaths in September, deaths never retreated to zero, or close to zero. COVID deaths immediately began increasing with the Omicron peak. While there was a lull during March 2022 in reported cases (Figures 2 and 3), data for April and May seem to indicate that reported cases are again on an upward path.

If today’s vaccines really worked as people initially hoped, I would expect to see a lot more progress in reducing new cases than shown to date.

[3] Data from OurWorldInData.org provides excess mortality indications for five age groupings. This data indicates that Ages 15-64 were particularly hard hit by the last two waves of COVID (Delta and Omicron). Ages 85+ were hit very lightly.

Figure 5. Chart prepared by OurWorldInData.org showing excess mortality.

Since these charts are for all causes of death combined, they will reflect deaths that might have occurred due to other problems of the 2020 to 2022 period, in addition to COVID deaths. For example, increased suicides and homicides would be included, as would a rise in drug overdoses and motor vehicle accidents. If there are deaths stemming from the use of vaccines, these deaths would be included in the total deaths from all causes, as well.

The rise in deaths in the Ages 15-64 grouping is particularly striking. This group is known for being more likely to be depressed by the events of the day. The base number of expected deaths is relatively lower than for the older ages. This allows the deaths from newly increased causes to magnify the total death rate of the period by a greater factor. Life insurance companies have been complaining about the high numbers of deaths experienced on their policies, predominantly for this age group.

The strikingly low deaths in the Ages 85+ group in 2021 may reflect the working of the vaccine. There might be other causes as well. Some of the weaker members of this group likely died in 2020, leaving fewer to die in 2021. This lower death rate may also reflect the impact of antibodies gained from catching COVID in 2020. People included in Ages 85+, more frequently than younger age groups, lived in care homes of various kinds during 2020. In this setting, they were more exposed to the early rounds of COVID than those living in home settings. Thus, they had more of a chance to develop antibodies from catching the illness.

[4] If we prepare charts showing provisional mortality data for 2021, together with similar indications for prior years, we can see how US mortality rates have been changing for different age groups. We can also see the relative role of COVID cases in these changes.

Figure 6. Death rates for four youngest age groupings, based on CDC Provisional Mortality Data for various years.

The CDC data show mortality rates based on deaths from all causes. For the years 2020 and 2021, it gives a separate indication of mortality associated with COVID. The orange line represents what the mortality would be if all COVID deaths (using a broad definition of COVID death, based on COVID appearing as “any cause” on the death certificate) were removed.

COVID vaccines were not available until mid-December 2020, and then for only a very small group, so the difference in the orange and blue lines at the 2020 point represents the number of COVID deaths for the age group, before the vaccines became available. The 2021 difference between the two lines represents the number of deaths from COVID taking into account whatever vaccines were used for this age group. We might expect the gap between the blue and orange lines to become smaller in 2021 than in 2020 if the vaccines given to the particular age group (or the prior antibodies from catching the illness) were making a significant change in reducing COVID cases in 2021.

Looking at Figure 6, COVID has essentially no impact on babies under Age 1. The total number of deaths seemed to drop more than usual in 2020, perhaps partly because mothers were at home more. For Ages 1-4, death rates are up in 2021, but not because of COVID. COVID seems to play practically no role in the mortality of Ages 5-14 and at most a very minor role for Ages 15-24. For the latter group, mortality is significantly up in both 2020 and 2021, perhaps because of more suicides and risky behavior resulting in death (such as car accidents and drug overdoses).

Figure 7. Death rates per 100,000 for four groupings between ages 25 and 64, based on CDC Provisional Mortality Data for various years.

We can see similar patterns to what we saw for Ages 15-24 in the chart above, but with progressively more COVID in the mix of causes leading to the uptick in the overall death rates. The share of COVID cases in the mix rises in 2021 relative to 2020 for all of these age groupings, despite the vaccines and prior immunity which should start building up (if immunity is truly “durable,” something that is not always the case).

Figure 8. Death rates for three groups from age 65 and up, based on CDC Provisional Mortality Data for various years.

It is only when we get to these oldest ages that death rates stop increasing in 2021. In fact, when the impact of COVID deaths is removed, the death rates seem to be improving. These age groups tended to get the vaccine early. They also lost quite a few sickly members in 2020, when the first round of COVID hit. The remaining group may be in somewhat better health than the original mix. Also, as mentioned in Section [3], they may also have more antibodies from actually catching COVID during 202o, while living in a care home.

[5] We can perhaps get an inkling of what is going wrong with death rates by comparing deaths by cause for January 2020, January 2021, and January 2022, based on monthly provisional death data.

A sample of one month is not very much, but January tends to be bad for mortality because the cold weather encourages dry indoor conditions, especially in the colder parts of the country. People tend to stay inside more because of cold weather. Vitamin D levels tend to be low because of lower sunlight exposure. Communicable disease deaths, including those of COVID, tend to be high at this time of year.

Figure 9. Chart prepared by Gail Tverberg using CDC data for Select Natural Causes. Amounts for January 2022 are likely somewhat incomplete because of the lag in death certificate preparation.

Looking at Figure 9, the first thing we notice is that total January 2022 deaths from natural causes are still outrageously high compared with January 2020 deaths. These deaths exclude deaths from suicides, drug overdoses, car accidents and many other unnatural causes that we know are trending up substantially, so the overall situation is probably even worse than natural death indications would suggest.

One thing we notice is that heart disease deaths seem to be trending higher. This could be a fluke, or it might be caused by COVID or the vaccines (or both). Investigation might be useful.

Cancer deaths, at least based on this tiny sample, seem to be flat. This suggests that fears of a rapid rise in cancer deaths because of vaccine-related issues may be unwarranted.

COVID deaths in January 2022 are down from their very elevated level in January 2021.

Cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and kidney disease deaths all are higher, in this very small sample. These diseases would all seem to possibly be influenced by a greater number of COVID cases or perhaps by side effects associated with vaccines or with treatments. Researchers interested in these topics should be aware that data are being collected that might give insight into changes in the number of deaths associated with these causes.

One thing that alarmed me when I looked at the CDC’s list of “selected” natural causes is that the list of diseases for which data is given is not very complete. One grouping that clearly has been omitted is diseases of the liver. I would strongly suspect that deaths from diseases of the liver are rising, if people have been staying at home and drinking more alcoholic beverages.

[6] Conclusions and ideas for further examination.

Clearly, the CDC has a huge quantity of data that can be examined if anyone wants to put the time and energy into looking at it. Too often researchers coming from the biological sciences do not stop and think about using whatever data is available to support or refute their ideas, at least based on the evidence to date.

The significant increases in mortality for the many age groups between 15 and 64 would seem to suggest that something is going badly wrong. Someone should be examining these changes. If part of the problem is that vaccines are having serious side effects, this can perhaps be seen by analyzing deaths by cause for these age groups.

The lack of COVID cases in the youngest age groupings (babies and Ages 1-4) would suggest that vaccines are not really needed for these age groupings. Babies don’t excessively fill hospitals with COVID cases. Training their immune systems to look for a long-extinct version of the virus cannot be very helpful in the long run.

If the underlying purpose of vaccines is to help the profitability of big companies, hospitals, doctors and vaccine-makers, this makes a big difference in our understanding of what we are being told. Clearly, the government is also a big employer; its ability to stay within its budget is enhanced by holding down the hospital and other medical costs of its employees. For example, if the government wants the hospitalization costs and work lost by those in the US Army and US Navy to be as low as possible, it will mandate vaccines for these employees. The CDC, being a government agency, cannot help but be at least somewhat influenced by what government leaders are demanding when interpreting scientific evidence.

The government cannot explain that the reason it wants everyone to be vaccinated has essentially nothing to do with disease transmission, without upsetting many people, so it publicizes its change in stance with respect to vaccines as little as possible. Businesses do not want it known that their reason for demanding vaccines is to hold down their own COVID healthcare costs, so they are not anxious to publicize the underlying reason, either. Thus, the vast majority of citizens are not aware of the fact that even with boosters, their chance of catching COVID and passing it along to others is still very high. Studies seem to indicate that boosters may provide an individual person with a short window (6 weeks, or so) of lower likelihood of catching COVID, but the overall effect is not enough to reduce the overall pattern of disease transmission.

If a vaccine against Omicron is developed, we need to be aware that there is a high probability that by the time the vaccine is widely distributed, the virus will have mutated sufficiently that its only benefit will be to somewhat reduce the severity of whatever version of COVID is prevalent at the time the next wave of cases appears. Thus, we cannot hope that with a better-directed vaccine, it will make any substantial difference in disease transmission. Thus, we should expect that the major benefit will always be “reduced healthcare costs with respect to COVID.”

There are quite a few people who have discovered from reading on-line articles that there are ways of potentially reducing the severity of COVID besides receiving the vaccine. These include raising vitamin D levels in advance of contracting COVID and taking any number of common, inexpensive drugs (including aspirin) if the disease does hit. They also recognize that the long-term effects of the vaccines are unknown. For example, if repeated too many times, the vaccines may damage the immune system, according to some analyses. The views of these vaccine-refusers need to be respected. The vaccine-refusers can easily be turned into scapegoats.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,227 Responses to A Few Insights Based on CDC Data Regarding COVID and its Vaccines

  1. Adonis says:

    Just finished watching the latest dr strange movie made in 2022 the elders left a message in this movie as to who they are watch or i will just tell you the illuminati.

  2. CTG says:

    White House Is Quietly Modeling For $200 Oil “Shock”

    While the Biden administration is hoping and praying that someone – anyone – will watch the comical “Jan 6” kangaroo hearsay court taking place in Congress and meant to somehow block Trump from running for president in 2024 while also making hundreds of millions of Americans forget that the current administration could very well be the worst in US history, it is quietly preparing for the worst.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/white-house-quietly-modeling-shock-200-oil

    This article’s 20-day limit is almost up. I give you this : Do they elder the game is up or they are just guess? So, they better rush the UEP…

    • Includes some analysis, using some of the EIA numbers that came out today, showing how rapidly US crude oil inventories are falling, even with the big injections from the SPR. No wonder they are worried about $200 oil. I would worry about the debt defaults and a hugely broken financial system just as much.

  3. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    BAU began how long AGO?

    Scientists from the Weizmann Institute of Science have been able to detect nonvisual traces of fire dating back at least 800,000 years, one of the earliest known examples for the controlled use of fire.
    It has been speculated that the ancient hominins used fire as far back as 1 million years ago, a period when Homo habilis began its transition to Homo erectus.

    Called the ‘cooking hypothesis’, fire was believed to have been instrumental in our evolution, not only for allowing hominins to stay warm, craft weapons and ward off predators, but also for cooking to eliminate pathogens and increase the digestion and nutritional value of food.

    The only problem with this hypothesis is a lack of data: since finding archaeological evidence of pyrotechnology primarily relies on visual identification of modifications resulting from the combustion of objects (mainly, a colour change), traditional methods have managed to find widespread evidence of fire use no older than 200,000 years. While there is some evidence of fire dating back to 500,000 years ago, it remains sparse, with only five archaeological sites around the world providing reliable evidence of ancient fire.

    Using a pioneering method of applying AI and spectroscopy, researchers from Weizmann’s Plant and Environmental Sciences Department were previously able to find indications of controlled burning on stone tools in Israel that date back to between 200,000 and 420,000 years ago.

    They applied the same technique to assess the heat exposure of artefacts found at Evron Quarry, a Palaeolithic site in Western Galilee with stone tools and animal fossils that date back to between 800,000 and 1 million years ago.

    The results revealed that 26 flint tools had been heated to a wide range of temperatures – some exceeding 600°C. In addition, using a different spectroscopic technique, they analysed 87 faunal remains and discovered that the tusk of an extinct elephant also exhibited structural changes resulting from heating.

    According to the research team – “by looking at the archaeology from a different perspective, using new tools, we may find much more than we initially thought. The methods they’ve developed could be applied, for example, at other Lower Palaeolithic sites to identify nonvisual evidence of fire use. Furthermore, this method could perhaps offer a renewed spatiotemporal perspective on the origins and controlled use of fire, helping us to better understand how hominin’s pyrotechnology-related behaviours evolved and drove other behaviours.”

    Weizmann Institute of Science

    https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2123439119

    Now I can rest easy, knowing when it all began

    • CTG says:

      800,000 years = 26,666 generations.

      I need 2^26,666 ancestors so that I am born today.

      My ancestors married among themselves without any genetic consequences. So, I can reduce the number from 2^26666 to 2^30 or 1 billion people.

    • I think that there is also research based on looking at molars of humans and pre-humans. Cooked food does not require as much chewing, so molars could be smaller. The shift toward smaller teeth (including molars) began well over a million years ago. There no doubt are other factors leading to the ability to get along with smaller teeth, but cooking would be one such factor.

  4. Fast Eddy says:

    hahaha https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/36988

    Imagine what they’d do if they were hungry and you had the food https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/36996

    norm – it’s all subjective but for me if this was on the escalator I’d let it pass https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/37000

    Nick the dead comedian oh my nick hahaha (F789 you nick hahaha) https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/37006

  5. Lastcall says:

    People were expecting the ‘Singularity’

    I think we are heading for the ‘Convergence’

    Vaids going expo
    Energy Cliff
    Markets staggering
    Wars formenting
    Famines on the horizon
    Bonds bombing
    Crypto finding true value
    Diversity/perversity in your face

    Its all got a singular outcome I guess; stuffed/cooked goose

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      lots to look forward to in Q3.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Bed Bath & Beyond has become another imploded meme stock. Meme stocks are a phenomenon that will go down in history as one of the grandest, most dazzling, most media-savvy pump-and-dump schemes that peaked in January and early February of 2021 – yes that infamous February 2021, when the stock market came unglued beneath the surface.

      Today, Bed Bath & Beyond [BBBY] reported earnings and fired its CEO that had coddled up to the meme stock crowd. And its shares, after having already plunged in recent months, plunged by another 24% to $4.99 at the close.

      https://wolfstreet.com/2022/06/29/another-pump-and-dump-meme-stock-ends-in-the-dumpster-of-reality-bed-bath-beyond-goes-back-to-heck/

      https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/US-stocks-Bed-bath-beyond-2022-06-29.png

      I would like to see the look on Wolf’s face when the entire charade implodes in his face.. and he’s on the street chasing rats..

      Ah – Wolf is a true believer so he’ll be 4x vaxxed … so he won’t be around during that phase.

      If Wolf was to be vax damaged he would never blame the vax.

      • Some of us actually like to see little kitchen gadgets in the store, before we buy them. I don’t watch television, so I have no idea what new items might be out. Going to a Bed, Bath, and Beyond store is a way of finding out what might be available.

        I rarely purchase much from BBBY. The coupons I get every month from BBBY are sufficient to reduce the price of what I buy there by 10% to 20%.

    • A couple more:

      Not enough water for everyone
      Failing electricity

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    Ireland: What Could Have Been…
    Could’ve been so much better had they not jabbed into oblivion.

    https://live2fightanotherday.substack.com/p/ireland-what-could-have-been

    https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F067ed660-e3cf-48a3-b57a-27316257c2d4_574x375.png

    Oh f789!!!

    mike – norm? We need you to make sense of this!!!

    https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F72934c45-6237-439f-bb84-7d91b9335a27_575x374.png

    In other words, they received 50% more purely-Covid deaths than in the totally unprotected period of their primitive existence, prior to the massive uptake of the revolutionary, highly protective and exceedingly safe vaccines, bestowed upon them by magnanimous BigPharma and mandated by the government, and the masses. What’s more, immediately after this last summer lull, the death curve has turned into a straight line, stubbornly and relentlessly trending upwards with no end in sight. What says “protection” louder than a steady, robust stream of mortality?

    What’s more, the excess mortality paints a much more damning picture, with all-cause excess deaths in the 10-month fully-protected period of Jul. 2021-Apr. 2022 (646.05-251.82= 394.23/mln in 10 months) being 157% of the pre-lull cumulative excess deaths in the 18-month period of Jan. 2020-Jun. 2021 (251.82/mln in 18 months):

    • Lastcall says:

      Wow, you couldn’t make this sh!te up if you tried. What are they smoking in Europe?

      ‘However, NATO has announced its armies will be carbon neutral by 2050. Nice’
      ‘…….And I don’t think bombs are carbon neutral.’

      https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/it-possible-even-probable-world-system-will-shatter
      ..from link posted searlier.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        NATZO should disband, not expand.

        the beauty of disbanding is that they will then be carbon neutral.

      • I think the work on Gain of Function for viruses was undertaken with the understanding that fossil fuel resources wouldn’t be sufficient for any more major wars. Hacking networks (using a different type of virus) is a another way fighting enemies. A third approach is, in theory financial sanctions. We are discovering that financial sanctions can backfire.

    • Wasn’t Putin making this statement months ago?

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    oh wow mike – i can see why you would not want any more boosters!!!

    3 shots is definitely more than enough haha

    https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F815e712e-cace-4969-970f-b90ca5b2495c_1937x1070.png

    https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/just-how-much-are-covid-cases-up

    the UK stopped reporting this series. look at the US prevalence data and perhaps you’ll get some intuition as to why. relative risk ratios doubled from ~2 to ~4 over an 8 week span despite (or perhaps because) their switching to reporting triple dosed instead of double.

    this shatters the “more intrinsically infectious” narrative. it might be a little bit so, but mostly, it’s the vaccines. it’s not 3.4X, much less 11X as infective.

    no way. no how.

    and the vaxxed vs unvaxxed data was laying out the driver clearly until they stopped reporting it.

    the data is flat out telling us that the huge genetic jump to omicron was a sharp selection for an OAS variant advantaged by the vaccine driven herd antigenic fixation stemming from leaky vaccines. omi is not a descendant of delta, it’s a throwback to a far earlier common ancestor. it got plucked off the “failed variant” pile by a powerful new evolutionary selector.

    that’s what leaky vaccines do: they select for OAS and ADE.

    it’s WHY we don’t use them.

    and these vaccines look to induce strong antigenic fixation rendering your immune system a one trick pony unable to adapt to new variants of this pathogen.

    to my knowledge, herd antigenic fixation has never happened before in humans. if this is what’s happening now, things are going to get pretty dramatic.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      is Pfauci still not dead?

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “to my knowledge, herd antigenic fixation has never happened before in humans. if this is what’s happening now, things are going to get pretty dramatic.”

      I’d love more drama in the Jabbed.

      herd antigenic fixation:

      we’ll have a new jab for that!

      the combo vaccines are coming!

      hahahahaha.

      keep boosting!

      • Lastcall says:

        Do you want fries with that booster burger?
        Too bad if you don’t, cos the chips are already served.

        Too fn bad suckers.

        Now its your turn to be the lepers; stay away from me!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The wheels are spinning so fast … every morning I wake up with great vigour… there is so much meaning to life at the moment — who needs adrenaline bucket listing!

        We get our constant feed of vax damaged celebs… we get more VAIDS… high death counts in high vax countries… overrun hospitals… it’s all building towards a giant climax! It’s an orgy of disaster …

    • “to my knowledge, herd antigenic fixation has never happened before in humans. if this is what’s happening now, things are going to get pretty dramatic.”

      That could be. We will see.

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    the peak of winter in 2020-1 dropped about 25% from prior year.

    then vaccination started. the next winter peak was 2.29X.

    the summer peak in 2021 was over 1.5X the size of the prior unvaxxed year.

    and this year, in the post booster omicron age, is going absolutely wild.

    it’s over 10X the same day last year.

    it’s ~2X last year’s summer PEAK and peak cases are a solid 6 weeks away, maybe 8 if seasonality holds.

    it looks to have a real shot at making new all time highs.

    prior to vaccination, peaks were lower than prior year.

    since vaccination, they have ALL been higher.

    and the extent to which they are higher is increasing with each peak.

    https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/just-how-much-are-covid-cases-up

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “their antigenic fixation has frozen their immune response and it’s clear that variant based boosters are not going to help. fixated is fixated.”

      fixated is fixated.

      hahahahaha.

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    just how much are covid cases up in the US?
    when you adjust for testing levels (which have been dropping rapidly) the US data look ominous

    https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/just-how-much-are-covid-cases-up

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “bottom line:

      it is the vaccines driving covid evolution and superspread and they are failing faster by the day.

      the reported cases data is masking this, but the magnitude of what’s starting to happen will be too big to hide from the general public much longer.

      when you’re quad vaxxed and on your fifth round of covid and it feels worse than your fourth, even the stalwart “trust the experts” crowd starts to notice…

      this may be a bumpier summer than many were planning.”

      Summer of Paxlovid

      which will make things worse.

      ask Pfauci.

      hahahahaha.

    • With all of the home tests available, no requirements for tests for riding on domestic planes, and no real need to report cases, I can imagine that reported case counts would be down a lot.

      It seems like deaths might still be sort of properly stated, if authorities require reporting COVID deaths. That may be all we can look at now.

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    San Francisco is Another Portugal — Worst Covid Wave Ever
    Never-ending Chronic Covid grips city

    https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/san-francisco-is-another-portugal

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    Oh wow… so here we have VAIDS passed from the MOREONS who injected injected injected while pregnant to the babies… and the babies are now F789ed.. and pouring into the ICUs…

    And guess what message this is going to send to the MOREONS? Yep – gotta inject the babies hahaha … (and well and truly f789 them).

    This is very obviously not about $$$… not even the Devil himself would do this

    https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/36985

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    SARS-2 Didn’t Care About DDR Borders Until the Vaccines
    A brief historical look at Corona incidences in Germany

    In the aftermath of my suggestion that Omicron BA.5 prefers hypervaccinated west Germans and avoids the lesser-vaccinated former DDR, I’ve heard a lot of theories. I’ve heard about about demography and age structures and population density and testing and masking rates, about the timing of third and fourth vaccine doses, and about many other things.

    Here, I want to make one point clear: Before December 2021, no DDR Effect is visible anywhere in the German case data. The only discernible patterns are seasonal and geographical. As a rule, Corona begins the season in the south-east; gradually moves outwards, to the northwest; and remains relatively muted in the far north.

    You can see this incipient pattern as early as the second wave. Here’s how the 7-day incidence appeared on 23 November 2020 …

    https://www.eugyppius.com/p/sars-2-didnt-care-about-ddr-borders

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    Vaccine mRNA Can Be Detected in Blood at 15 Days Post-Vaccination

    https://hiddencomplexity.substack.com/p/vaccine-mrna-can-be-detected-in-blood

    • Rodster says:

      Dr. Kory, McCullough, Ryan Cole, Robert Malone and Chris Martenson all say it lingers a lot longer than that.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I imagine it’s permanent — notice the first line in that study… they have to say that… otherwise it wont get published… how insane is that haha

  14. MG says:

    Some nice jamming…

    https://youtu.be/nOXf9oAGfDw

    Who needs pandemics, wars and hate?

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      anti covid vaccine Eric Clapton.

      do you like Robert “Plant”?

  15. Rodster says:

    “White House Is Quietly Modeling For $200 Oil “Shock”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/white-house-quietly-modeling-shock-200-oil

  16. Rodster says:

    “Demand Destruction Emerges As Americans Cancel Road Trips”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/demand-destruction-emerges-americans-cancel-road-trips

    • We are not getting the summer spike in road trips, because of the poorer folks taking fewer road vacations.

      But my observation is that the airlines seem to be very full. This may partly be because of cancelled flights and reduced capacity, however.

  17. Yoshua says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1539591177346891777?cxt=HHwWgoCykZmB3d0qAAAA

    The Brent moving averages

    50 day 113 (Mr Pool again)
    100 day 108
    200 day 94

    Brent is currently at 112 and not dead until it breaks the 200 day moving average

  18. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Russian Gas Squeeze Spurs Bailout Talks for Germany’s Uniper

    (Bloomberg) — Energy giant Uniper SE is discussing a possible bailout from the German government after Russia curbed natural gas deliveries, forcing the utility to buy fuel in the spot market at higher prices.

    Uniper said it is in talks with the government for a possible increase in state-back loans from KfW or even equity investments to secure liquidity. The supply squeeze prompted the company, Germany’s top buyer of Russia gas, to withdraw its outlook for the year.

    “The business development has noticeably deteriorated due to the war in Ukraine,” Uniper’s chief executive officer, Klaus-Dieter Maubach, said in emailed comments. “We are now talking to the German government again about stabilization measures.”
    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-gas-squeeze-spurs-bailout-191259958.html

  19. Michael Le Merchant says:

    World Bank’s Reinhart Sees More Debt Distress Risks Emerging

    (Bloomberg) — The list of emerging-markets countries facing debt distress is quickly mounting as global interest rates rise, according to World Bank Group Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart.

    “With the low income countries, debt risks and debt crises are not hypothetical. We’re pretty much already there,” Reinhart told Bloomberg Television Tuesday.

    “Debt crises need to be resolved through meaningful debt reduction. If not, it’s a band-aid and it’s a band-aid that wears off very quickly.”
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/world-bank-s-reinhart-sees-more-debt-distress-risks-emerging-1.1784673#:~:text=(Bloomberg)%20%2D%2D%20The%20list%20of,Group%20Chief%20Economist%20Carmen%20Reinhart.

  20. Michael Le Merchant says:

    UK shop prices jump by the most since 2008 – BRC

    LONDON – British retailers raised prices at the fastest pace since 2008 this month, driven by the rapidly rising cost of food, according to industry data that showed the extent of the inflation squeeze for households.

    The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said on Wednesday that average prices among its members in early June were 3.1% higher than a year earlier, the biggest jump since September 2008 and speeding from May’s 2.8% rise.

    The BRC‘s measure of inflation covers a narrower range of goods than Britain’s official consumer prices index, which showed inflation hit a 40-year high of 9.1% in May.

    Food prices on the BRC‘s measure were up 5.6% on the year in June compared with a 4.3% rise in May, the largest food price rise since June 2011. Non-food prices rose by 1.9%, a touch slower than in May but close to record highs.
    https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/06/29/britain-economy-inflation#:~:text=LONDON%20%E2%80%93%20British%20retailers%20raised%20prices,the%20inflation%20squeeze%20for%20households.

    • These increases are not really terribly high, compared to what they might be. I notice though that it says,

      “The BRC‘s measure of inflation covers a narrower range of goods than Britain’s official consumer prices index, which showed inflation hit a 40-year high of 9.1% in May.”

  21. Michael Le Merchant says:

    U.S. Power Companies Face Supply-Chain Crisis This Summer

    (Reuters) – U.S. power companies are facing supply crunches that may hamper their ability to keep the lights on as the nation heads into the heat of summer and the peak hurricane season.

    Extreme weather events such as storms, wildfires and drought are becoming more common in the United States. Consumer power use is expected to hit all-time highs this summer, which could strain electric grids at a time when federal agencies are warning the weather could pose reliability issues.

    Utilities are warning of supply constraints for equipment, which could hamper efforts to restore power during outages. They are also having a tougher time rebuilding natural gas stockpiles for next winter as power generators burn record amounts of gas following the shutdown of dozens of coal plants in recent years and extreme drought cuts hydropower supplies in many Western states.
    https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-06-29/u-s-power-companies-face-supply-chain-crisis-this-summer

    • Meanwhile, California depends to a significant extent on importing electricity from other states. It seems like something could go wrong with this plan.

  22. Michael Le Merchant says:

    China To Subsidize Refiners If Oil Prices Exceed $130

    China will provide subsidies to its oil refiners if international oil prices jump to over $130 per barrel as the world’s largest crude oil importer looks to ensure fuel supply and protect businesses and consumers from surging fuel prices.

    Should international benchmarks surge to $130 a barrel and stay there, the Chinese government will offer subsidies to refiners initially for two months, China’s Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday, as carried by Reuters. The subsidies will be calculated on the basis of the actual sales of diesel and gasoline of the refiners and fuel traders, according to the policy.

    “(The subsidy) is to safeguard stable fuel supplies, ease costs for manufacturers and alleviate burdens for consumers,” according to the ministry.

    Last month, China’s refining activity was very weak due to the COVID-related lockdowns. Strict lockdowns in Shanghai and the resulting depressed fuel demand led in May to the largest annual decline in Chinese refinery production in at least the past decade. China continues to implement its “zero-COVID” policy, which has triggered several limited lockdowns in major cities this month alone. The lockdowns have also weighed on international oil prices as the market fears a sudden new lockdown in the top crude importer.
    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-To-Subsidize-Refiners-If-Oil-Prices-Exceed-130.html

    • China is a country that recognizes the importance of energy products, including oil. Subsidizing oil prices means that Chinese refiners might be more able to afford what oil exports are available. Their economy might stick together better than some other economies.

  23. Michael Le Merchant says:

    LOL!

    “Try a different brand and see how it goes.”
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWZpn8_UsAECeDW?format=png&name=900×900

    • Fast Eddy says:

      My mate with Pfizer heart was told that as well – can’t apply for an exemption so I’d recommend you take AZ which is now available in NZ — his response – right – so I can have blood clots to go with the heart damage

      BTW – he’s had some decent improvement – he can now walk almost a km …

      My other heart damaged mate improved to the point he could walk reasonable distances but he plateaued and has seen no further improvement – he cannot exert himself … he’s over a year into the damage

  24. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Vancouver starting to resemble LA
    https://twitter.com/backtolife_2022/status/1542025709371138048

    • You would think that the cooler weather would somewhat discourage of the problems of Los Angeles. But wage and wealth disparity are no doubt a contributing cause.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Vancouver is the mecca for these people – cuz it’s one of the warmest places in Canada during the winter… that said – it ain’t warm.

        Would it be unacceptable to suggest that the government give them pure heroin then collect the bodies each morning and dump them in the Pacific ocean? I think that would we considered a win-win… they get one last super high as they get put out of their misery… and the streets get cleansed

  25. Michael Le Merchant says:

    UK Food Prices are Soaring and Plunging Millions Into Distress

    (Bloomberg) — The price of basic goods in UK stores is rising at the fastest pace in almost 14 years, leaving poorer families taking drastic action to make ends meet, according to surveys published Wednesday.

    The British Retail Consortium said shops are having to pass on some of the burden of soaring raw materials costs, leading to the biggest price increases since September 2008. Fresh food drove the surge with a 6% jump in prices in the year through June.

    Separate research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation found that millions of low-income households are going without essentials, falling behind on bills and taking on debts.
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-food-prices-are-soaring-and-plunging-millions-into-distress-1.1785219#:~:text=(Bloomberg)%20%2D%2D%20The%20price%20of,according%20to%20surveys%20published%20Wednesday.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      if it’s anything like the USA (“official” 8.5% inflation is probably about 17, see shadowstats) then the UK data is manipulated lower by the UK gov.

      as this gets worse, the definition of “essentials” will be changing. (Tim Morgan again is good at highlighting this.)

      is a cellphone essential?

      internet service?

      BBC tv?

      TP? (shudder)

      que sera sera.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I hear rice with a bit of salt with bits of cat food can be tasty … once you get used to it

  26. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Spanish Inflation Soars to Record 10% as ECB Hikes Near

    (Bloomberg) — Spanish inflation unexpectedly surged to a record, defying government efforts to rein it in and signaling intensifying price pressure as the European Central Bank gears up to raise interest rates for the first time in more than a decade.

    Propelled by higher food and energy costs, consumer prices jumped 10% from a year ago in June, the INE statistics office said Wednesday. That’s up from 8.5% in May and exceeded all 15 estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

    The yield on German two-year debt, which is most sensitive to changes in borrowing costs, pared declines, falling one basis point to 0.95% after earlier sliding as much as 11 basis points.

    The surprise reading dashes hopes that inflation in the euro zone’s fourth-biggest economy had peaked, and will embolden ECB policy makers pushing for big increases in interest rates when they kick off next month. While President Christine Lagarde this week reiterated plans for a quarter-point rate hike in July to begin a sustained cycle of increases, other officials have floated the idea of more aggressive action.

    Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said in a Bloomberg interview published earlier Wednesday that a 50 basis-point hike should be an option at next month’s meeting. His colleague Martins Kazaks said rates can be raised “quite quickly,” and that front-loading of hikes is “reasonable.”
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/spanish-inflation-soars-to-record-10-as-ecb-hikes-near-1.1785343

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “Spanish inflation unexpectedly surged to a record…”

      what does it say about economists when they are so often using the word “unexpectedly”?

    • If it were possible to raise interest rates a bit, and get oil prices to go down at the same time supply goes up, everything would be fine. But things don’t work that way.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      As they try to blunt inflation this only results in the medusa growing more snakes as payments on everything from mortgages to auto loans to credit cards to personal loans spike…

  27. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Oil producers draining DUC inventories
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWbbdyOXEAE1Lcx?format=png&name=900×900

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      has new drilling nearly stopped?

      completing DUCs makes total sense.

      capital investment must shrink as net (surplus) energy continues its irreversible decline.

      Tim Morgan makes this point continuously, that as essentials keep taking up a greater portion of the economy, discretionary sectors and capital investment must shrink.

      too bad, but there will be ever less capital for things like oil wells, and not just capital for new infrastructure, but also for the maintaining and repairing of existing infrastructure.

      • Good point that it is both capital investments and discretionary expenditures that must shrink as energy supply shrinks.

        It has been through the growing supply of energy per capita that the world’s standard of living has risen. As energy per capita falls, the system must shrink back.

    • The Permian and the Eagle Ford seem to especially depending upon production from DUCs. Both seem to be well under half of their starting DUC values in April 2020.

  28. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/most-say-nation-on-wrong-track-including-dems-ap-norc-poll/ar-AAZ0wii?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5793d26734ef4737b1436acaf4920811

    “An overwhelming and growing majority of Americans say the U.S. is heading in the wrong direction, including nearly 8 in 10 Democrats…”

    even Ds can see that the fascsist regime in the White House is destroyying the country.

    oh well, all countries are going down sooner or later, though this regime is pushing it more towards sooner.

    que sera sera.

    • Will Biden make it to the end of his term?

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        Tony Bennett gave a concert recently at 95 years old.

        he has dementtia, needs 24/7 supervision and can’t remember his wife’s name.

        he was led on stage, and when the music started, he was able to sing about a dozen songs fairly well.

        I bet Biden needs 24/7 now, but pump him up with Adderrral, and he can still read a teleprompter for a while.

        he should be removed with the 25th amendment.

  29. Rodster says:

    “It Is Possible – Even Probable – That The World System Will Shatter”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/it-possible-even-probable-world-system-will-shatter

    • From this article:

      The ‘oil cap’ is simple in theory: the G7 will refuse to provide insurance to any vessel that carries Russian oil unless the cargo is sold with an agreed price cap. Yet it won’t work and will just push oil prices higher. Russia will never agree. China and India will never agree either. Russia and China may offer their own underwriting services, which would force the West into physically blocking cargoes and confronting China – as a Russian-oil carrying ship is stopped in the US, says the Wall Street Journal. Plus, the G7 are already not taking Russian oil: they are taking Russian oil from India and China that is being on-sold.

      The G7 is really powerless to fix its problems.

  30. Will Europe meet a disaster this winter?

    It looks like so.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      yes!

      why am I so passsionately craaayzeee about this, when it doesn’t really matter in the long run?

      the USA/NATZO fascsist boot is on the neck of Europe.

      why is Europe putting up with this bulllying that is leading to a severe damage to their economy?

      I think it’s already a disaster, though it will become much more visible to the average European by winter.

  31. Yoshua says:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWbohklXkAMPP8u?format=jpg&name=large

    The WTI daily chart is still broken at 113 (which happens to be Mr Pool’s number)

    Retest…rejection…and crash?

    I think the horizontal line marks a previous high in 2018?

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      agree to disagree, but we keep seeing it differently.

      what happened in late February?

      since that Great Day of 2/24/2022, the WTI has moved up to a wobbly range of about 94 to 124.

      do you not see that?

      so midpoint is about 109.

      what’s WTI now?

      111

  32. Yoshua says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1542167840182177792?cxt=HHwWgMC4odve8OYqAAAA

    The treasury 10 year yield is still on track to go higher as the Fed tightens

    Something will have to break soon

  33. Mirror on the wall says:

    ‘Hey, come back!’

    > Russians fight to encircle Ukraine’s last eastern stronghold

    Russian forces battled Wednesday to surround the Ukrainian military’s last stronghold in a long-contested eastern province.

    Moscow’s battle to wrest the entire Donbas region from Ukraine saw Russian forces pushing toward two Luhansk province villages south of the city of Lysychansk while Ukrainian troops fought to prevent their encirclement.

    Lysychansk is the last major area of the province under Ukrainian control following the retreat of Ukraine’s forces from the neighboring city of Sievierodonetsk.

    Russian troops and their separatist allies control 95% of Luhansk and about half of the Donetsk region, the other province that makes up the mostly Russian-speaking Donbas.

  34. Yoshua says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/RoamWithOm/status/1541900086342389760

    The WTI regained the trend line and is heading for new highs after printing a higher low?

    Demand destruction is not yet done?

    • I expect that the higher oil prices that we now seem to be encountering will convince central banks to keep raising their interest rates, regardless of how horrible the impact on the economy. The combination of the higher oil prices and the higher interest rates will truly push the world economy downward.

  35. Student says:

    ‘”Authorities select studies on ivermectin: Tess Lawrie”
    She returns to the obstacles to the recognition of ivermectin as an early treatment against covid-19: how outside influences, particularly that of Unitaid, sponsor of the meta-analysis conducted by Andrew Hill for WHO, led to influence the conclusions. Recalling the urgency and anguish to save patients that animated it, he emphasizes the extent to which WHO’s decision to restrict ivermectin to clinical trials had an enormous impact-all the more so when we look at the success with which this safe and well–known treatment has been used in some countries. Countries that, more often than not, knew they could not bet on a vaccine as the only way out of the crisis.
    […]
    Tess Lawrie recalls how those who supported the effectiveness of such early treatments were “ignored, censored, discredited.” In an earlier interview she called for a “new WHO”: she tells us how, at her level, with her organization “World Council for Health,” she wants to “help people understand what’s going on,” using “science , wisdom and common sense.” “Freeing yourself to take back control and responsibility for your own health and your own decisions about it,” is the goal.
    Tess Lawrie gives us her systemic look at this health crisis, she who has come up against the blockages and wanderings of institutions and regulatory bodies, “captured” by the pharmaceutical industry. She even hypothesizes-“controversially”-that “there may not even be a pandemic” with the approval of early treatments. The researcher continues to promote, despite the obstacles, “a better way”-a slogan of her association. “We still need ivermectin”-even to treat some of the side effects of anti-covid injections.”
    (automatic translation from French)

    http://www.francesoir.fr/videos-le-defi-de-la-verite/tess-lawrie

    Full interview here:
    https://videos.francesoir.fr/items/066172b3-7a4d-4ec3-81c4-278084fd8047

  36. Mirror on the wall says:

    Wow, over a million immigrated to UK in 2021, from predominantly non-EU countries.

    > More than one million foreign nationals allowed to live in UK in a year

    Number of visas handed to workers, students, relatives and other foreign nationals rose by 35pc, amid claims of broken Brexit promises

    More than a million foreign nationals were let in to live in the UK last year for the first time in recorded history, as the Government was accused of breaking its Brexit promises.

    Home Office data showed that the number of visas handed to workers, students, family relatives and other foreign nationals rose by 35 per cent to 994,951 in the year to March, up from a pre-pandemic high of 739,936.

    A further 15,451 people were granted asylum as the number applying for refuge in the UK rose by nearly 45 per cent to 65,008 – fuelled by record numbers of migrants crossing the Channel on small boats and Afghans fleeing the Taliban.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/05/26/one-million-people-allowed-live-uk-government-accused-breaking/

    • The UK is doing less badly, economically, than quite a few other countries in the world.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        80% is from outside the EU.

        Brexit really worked!

        > Of the total, the non-EU element rose to the highest level (835,000) since available records begin in 2005, with 780,000 granted long-term entry.

        https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/press-release/674/more-people-were-granted-permission-to-enter-the-uk-long-term-from-overseas-in-2021-than-the-entire-population-of-leeds

        • You can thank Gina Miller, who had zero white blood whatsoever, messing up Brexit.

          In the old days she would have gotten a nice buckshot at the back of her head, making it a nice blowing tomato. But all the UK patriots, eager to praise piece of shit like Arthur Harris, were too cowardish to put an end to her.

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            There are some basics of which you may not be entirely cognizant.

            British State 101

            The British State is a capitalist state, and it has been since the rising bourgeoisie took over England during the Civil War.

            As such it exists first and foremost to represent the interests of organised capital.

            The political parties like the Tories are capitalist state parties that exist for the same reason, the Tories directly and Labour more or less directly.

            Organised British capital, like the Confederation of British Industry, campaigned effectively to make post-Brexit immigration rules as flexible as possible.

            The aim is for the British State capitalist economy to absorb as many incoming workers as it is able to.

            There is little point trying to ‘blame’ anyone else for what a people itself does. A people makes its bed, and it lies in it.

            > …. How has the CBI influenced post-Brexit immigration?

            – Through public interventions, evidence-submissions and private lobbying, the CBI has secured several policy wins which mean the new immigration system will be more flexible, fair and responsive to the economy than it would have been under earlier government plans.

            – Reduced the salary threshold so that £20,480 is now possible – the government originally set the salary threshold at £30,000, which would have excluded 60% of medium skilled jobs being eligible for overseas workers. Under the new system overseas workers are eligible for a visa if they earn above the minimum salary threshold of £20,480 (and meet criteria for top-up ‘points’). They are guaranteed a visa if they earn over £25,600

            – Secured commitment to a genuine points-based route in the future – while it won’t be ready from day one, an individual will have the right to work in the UK based solely on their individual characteristics (like qualifications, age, work experience), rather than the job they are coming to do. This is a ‘genuine’ points-based route, similar to Australia, and will enable more flexibility in the new system

            – Gained assurance that free movement continues for a further six months – although the new immigration system technically comes into force on 1 Jan 2021, the government have confirmed that the checks employers must carry out when hiring EU nationals won’t change until 30 June 2021 (to align with deadline for the EU Settlement Scheme). Employers will still be able to hire EU nationals based solely on their passport/ID card for an extra six months (over which period EU nationals still have visa free travel to the UK)

            – Secured an extension to the post-study work visa – students can now stay and apply for work in the UK for up to two years after their University course ends (up from six months). This is especially important for businesses that hire graduates, and the Higher Education sector.

            https://www.cbi.org.uk/articles/government-announces-the-new-immigration-system-design/

            • More competition from the “low end” for jobs in the UK, with these policies.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              It is a complex situation, and I will get fuller data one afternoon.

              UK is an ageing population, fertility rates have been below replacement level since 1973, which limits the fresh workers coming through, X retire per year, yet the number of people in work has increased by 5 million since 2000. UK presently has over 1 million further jobs unfilled.

              UK is able to fairly constantly create a greater number of jobs, and they are filled, along with vacant old ones, at all levels by incomers in addition to locals, and indeed workers are sourced for all levels. So locals experience competition at all levels.

            • I can imagine that much of Europe has found itself obligated to take in a large number of immigrants for a similar reason as the UK.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              So, eg. Chinese, Indian and White Other all have a higher percentage of their number in the highest paying jobs than White British, and some other groups have a higher percentage in lower paying jobs. The British state recruits incomers from many places to fill all sort of jobs. At the moment it is particularly keen on Chinese, Indian and Nigerian, all of whom are seen as potentially higher earners, but it still gets them from all over.

              https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/work-pay-and-benefits/pay-and-income/income-distribution/latest

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              * Data is for ‘households’. Some groups are more given to women working, and others to more traditional arrangements, which immediately halves the income of the household. Data for those in employment would not be identical. Eg. Chinese households are overrepresented in the lowest and the highest, and the number of persons working may be a major factor.

  37. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Ahh, that’s too bad
    BBC
    Japan swelters in worst heatwave ever recorded
    Wed, June 29, 2022, 9:05 AM

    Japan is sweltering under the hottest day yet of its worst heatwave since records began in 1875.

    The blistering heat has drawn official warnings of a looming power shortage, and led to calls for people to conserve energy where possible.

    But the government is still advising people to use air conditioning to avoid heatstroke as cases of hospitalisation rise with the heat.

    Weather officials warn the heat is likely to continue in the coming days.

    Heatwaves have become more frequent, more intense, and last longer because of human-induced climate change.

    The world has already warmed by about 1.1C since the industrial era began and temperatures will keep rising unless governments around the world make steep cuts to emissions.

    Tokyo charted temperatures above 35 degrees on Wednesday for a fifth straight day, marking the worst documented streak of hot weather in June since records started in 1875.

    Meanwhile, the city of Isesaki, northwest of the capital, saw a record 40.2C – the highest temperature ever recorded in June for Japan.

    June is usually considered the rainy season for Japan, but the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) declared an end to the season for Tokyo and its surrounding areas on Monday.

    The announcement – which came 22 days earlier than normal – marks the earliest end to the rainy season since 1951.

    Cases of heatstroke have also spiked amidst the sweltering heat, with emergency services saying on Wednesday at least 76 people had been taken to hospital.

    Hope they were vaccinated

    • Rodster says:

      I say the Japanese need to toughen up a bit. Those are normal temps in Florida during the summer and we have brutal humidity which just makes 35c feel more like 39-40c.

      In Japan they actually inform and educate their citizens on the vaccines and alternative treatments and let them make up their minds whether or not they want to be vaccinated. Alternative treatments are not banned as they are here in the US.

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        Exactly, Roddie, seems here in South Florida there is a new normal

        Half of Americans wait until summer to turn on the air conditioning, according to a survey of 2,000 Americans. The poll looked at the downsides of summer and found that on average, people think five hours a day outside in the summer is just enough, but 38 percent would opt for even less.

        With the worst aspects of the season ranging from feeling sweaty (35%), to bugs (32%), and getting sunburnt (31%), 53 percent of all respondents agree that summer is best spent indoors.

        The average person goes into four public places a week during the summer just to escape the heat, with two-thirds of respondents agreeing that one of the best summer feelings is stepping into an air-conditioned setting.

        The perfect temperature for air conditioning
        According to the survey, the perfect temperature to keep the AC running at during the summer months is a chilly 64 degrees! Another reason that 55 percent of people prefer staying inside during the summer is that planning an outdoor outing is more of a hassle compared to an indoor one.
        This may be why 53 percent are actually looking for ways to have fun indoors this summer. Most respondents add they’re on the hunt for fun indoor activities to catch up with friends and family indoors this summer (59%), but wish there were more options (57%).

        Conducted by OnePoll in partnership with Dave & Buster’s, the survey found that 45 percent think it’s hard to find an activity that everyone wants to do on hot summer days. However, half of respondents admit they feel bored of all the usual activities they do with their loved ones in the summertime (52%), backed by 58 percent who agree that it’s easy to get bored more easily during the summer than any other season.

        Three-quarters of parents surveyed also shared it’s hard to keep their kids entertained since they’re at an age where they quickly get bored of doing one thing (74%).

        “A majority of Americans are actually planning on making summer memories indoors and it’s easy to understand why,” says Brandon Coleman, Dave & Buster’s senior vice president and chief marketing officer, in a statement. “Cranking up the AC, and dining, drinking and playing games are top choices for enjoying the most of the summer months.”
        This summer, people are open to different indoor activities to spend time with their loved ones of all ages like catching up over yummy food (37%), going shopping (31%) or visiting an arcade (25%).

        Three in five don’t mind making things interesting with a little friendly competition in their friend group (59%). The same percentage are also more likely to try out new foods or experiences during the summertime and agree that summer is the best time of year for indulgent foods.

        https://www.studyfinds.org/summer-air-conditioning/

  38. Student says:

    (Jerusalem Post)

    ”BioNTech, Pfizer to start testing universal COVID-19 vaccine.
    Germany’s BioNTech, Pfizer’s partner in COVID-19 vaccines, said the two companies would start tests on humans of next-generation shots that protect against a wide variety of coronaviruses in the second half of the year.”

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-710722

    ..They don’t stop..

    • Herbie Ficklestein says:

      You mean they want to keep the grave train from stopping..Ching Ching…🤑

      • Xabier says:

        ‘Grave train’: an intended pun, or a Freudian slip, Herbie?

        If the former – genius!

    • Rodster says:

      “..They don’t stop..“

      And they won’t because as the saying goes: “there’s a sucker born everyday”.

    • “protect”

      I will believe this when I see it. Keep the viruses circulating endlessly is more likely.

  39. Mirror on the wall says:

    The date for the Scottish independence referendum has been set as October 19, 2023.

    > Nicola Sturgeon’s five steps to an independence referendum, explained

    THE First Minister has announced the date of October 19, 2023 for indyref2. But the path to a second vote taking place is unlikely to be as straightforward as in 2014, thanks to opposition from the UK Government.

    Here we look at plans Nicola Sturgeon has outlined to allow the people of Scotland to “express their views in a legal constitutional referendum” and the potential hurdles along the way.

    Asking for a Section 30 order

    The UK and Scottish Governments should agree a Section 30 order as the “democratic way to proceed” and put the legal basis of a referendum “beyond any doubt”, Sturgeon said. This was the route taken in 2014, which allowed the necessary powers to be transferred to Scotland to hold an independence referendum. The First Minister wrote to Boris Johnson on Tuesday to make it clear she is “ready and willing” to negotiate the terms of a Section 30. However, with Johnson repeatedly making clear he is unwilling to do so, this is likely to be more of a formality than to succeed.

    Legislation for the vote

    The Scottish Government published the Scottish Independence Referendum Bill on Tuesday. This sets out key aspects of the vote – including the date and the question to be asked on the ballot paper will remain as it did in 2014 – “Should Scotland be an independent country?” The vote will be consultative and a majority Yes vote would not automatically lead to independence – as legislation would subsequently have to be passed by the Scottish and UK Parliaments. Sturgeon said the idea that a consultative referendum would not have the same status as the vote in 2014 was “simply wrong, factually and legally”. She said it would be exactly the same as the devolution referendum in 1997, the 2014 independence vote, and the 2016 Brexit referendum.

    Referral to the Supreme Court

    So if a Section 30 order is refused, what happens next? Sturgeon said she will “never allow Scottish democracy to be a prisoner of Boris Johnson or any Prime Minister”. The First Minister said it was crucial the lawfulness – or otherwise – of the referendum is established as a matter of fact, otherwise doubts would continue to be cast on the validity of the vote. The legislative competence of Holyrood to pass the bill without a section 30 order is “contested”, she noted. And so if the Scottish Parliament tried to do so, it would end up in court – facing a lengthy challenge from the UK Government or private individuals.

    Sturgeon said she had asked Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain, the Scottish Government’s most senior law officer, to exercise her power to refer the matter to the UK Supreme Court. That process is underway, with the UK Government being served the relevant paperwork and the case filed with the court. It remains to be seen if the court will look at the case – and if so, how long it will take and what it will decide. “By asking the Lord Advocate to refer the matter to the court now, rather than wait for others to do so, we are seeking to deliver clarity and legal certainty in a timely manner and without the delay and continued doubt that others would prefer,” Sturgeon added.

    Holyrood powers

    If the court does take the view Holyrood does have the power to hold a referendum, there will be “no doubt whatsoever that the referendum is lawful”, Sturgeon said. The next step for the Scottish Government will then be to introduce the independence bill to Holyrood for it to be passed in time for the vote to proceed on October 19, 2023. However, the court could also make decision that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to hold a referendum. “To be clear, if that happens, it will be the fault of Westminster legislation, not the court,” Sturgeon added.

    She said it would clarify that “any notion of the UK as a voluntary union of nations is a fiction” and that “Westminster will always have the final say”. “There would be few stronger or more powerful arguments for independence than that,” she added.

    A “de-facto” referendum

    Even if there is no lawful way for Holyrood to hold a referendum and the UK Government is still denying a Section 30 order, the First Minister said that would not be the end of it.

    She said the SNP would fight the next General Election on the question of independence – and it would be a “de facto” referendum to ensure Scotland does have its say.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20241409.nicola-sturgeons-five-steps-independence-referendum-explained/

  40. postkey says:

    In reply to my tweet re ‘growth’.

    “Professor Richard A. Werner
    @ProfessorWerner
    Feb 5
    High growth is possible for all countries, even at full employment. Professor Richard A. Werner”
    “@ProfessorWerner
    ·Feb 5
    Replying to
    @Postkey10
    Is possible. Now. Remember, growth and sustainability are not contradictory, precisely because growth is not a real concept from physics or even engineering. It’s a statistical artifact. There is no growth in the physics sense. So no problem for the environment & resources.”

    Does anyone know ‘what he is talking about’?

    • Jon F says:

      i Y I

    • Fast Eddy says:

      He is in DelusiSTAN… eternal growth and prosperity is possible because resources are cheap and infinite there.

      He is also insane… totally f789ing … insane.

      I’d imagine he’s taken all the boosters too. Probably believes man has walked on the moon hahaha…

    • ivanislav says:

      He is pretty clear: growth is a measurement along a non-physical dimension that is roughly synonymous with what we term “value” and which varies according to non-physics-based measures and is therefore limitless.

      An example might be helpful. Our society has determined that trannies twerking in front of little kids is a social good, which means it adds measurable economic value, so then we can increase the amount of twerking done in classrooms each year and our economy will grow accordingly. There is no need for more resources or in fact for any resources at all!

      Ta-da! Where is my economics nobel prize, now? Move over, Krugman.

    • Professor Richard A. Werner clearly doesn’t understand the connection between energy consumption and the economy. Just as humans need to eat to keep up their metabolism, the economy needs energy of various kinds. With our current population, there is no chance we would get along simply by cutting down trees and burning them–certainly not for very long. Other “renewables” are very iffy. They need to be made and maintained using fossil fuels.

  41. Kim says:

    ‘Comedian Nick Nemeroff died Monday, his family said in a statement mourning his “sudden passing.” He was 32. The cause of his death was not released.’

    https://www.nbcnews.com/pop-culture/pop-culture-news/comedian-nick-nemeroff-dies-32-rcna35699

    It is about time they developed a vaccine for “not released”. There seems to be a lot of it going around and it appears to be 100% fatal.

    • Rodster says:

      We need to play the Queen anthem: “Another one bites the dust and another one gone, another one bites the dust”.

  42. Student says:

    A precious new short post by Ugo Bardi in which he also suggests an interesting Nate Hagen’s presentation and a Fabio Vighi’s article, who talks about the strange connection between Covid-19 pandemics and previous imminent financial collapse before the pandemics.

    Ugo Bardi: The Dewdrop World is a Dewdrop World, and yet, and yet….. The Ethereal Nature of Collapse
    https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/2022/06/the-dewdrop-world-is-dewdrop-world-and.html

    Nate Hagens: Earth and Humanity: Myth and Reality
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYeZwUVx5MY

    Fabio Vighi: A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Systemic Collapse and Pandemic Simulation
    https://www.theburningplatform.com/2021/09/24/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/

    • drb753 says:

      Extremely interesting post by Ugo, thanks Student. So the post, or rather Nate Hagen, predict a steeper than physical cliff, that is, steeper than a 4% yearly contraction in energy supply would normally create. It does pass the eyeball test, with what we know now, doesn’t it?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      “The global economy was facing the worst collapse since the second world war as coronavirus began to strike in March, well before the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index. “The index comes as the IMF prepares to hold virtual spring meetings this week, when it will release forecasts showing the deepest contraction for the global economy since the 1930s great depression. FT.com https://archive.ph/UUfl2

      Collapse Imminent: https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/

      The Illusion of Stability, the Inevitability of Collapse http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-illusion-of-stability-inevitability.html

      Fed is sharply increasing the amount of help it is providing to the financial system https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/23/fed-repo-overnight-operations-level-to-increase-to-120-billion.html Banks did not trust each other – similar situation when Lehman collapsed

      https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=220

      Repo touched 2 trillion recently…. msm ignored that… ed dowd didn’t

      Most definitely that repo moment in 2019 was what triggered the CovCON… plenty of other data points were flashing red but the repo moment can be interpreted as the banks do not trust each other — not even for a few hours – with their billions…

      When that happens (see Lehman collapse) … the Fed MUST act…

      Effectively civilization ended soon after that trigger moment.

      Fortunately they’d been planning for this for decades and they didn’t just let it all blow to bits leaving us in the dark without food

    • Alex says:

      Ugh, Bardi believes that gold coins have essentially the same value as digital fiat currency.

      • Jon F says:

        Never mind……keep stacking……

      • Student says:

        I have not seen this exact comparison in his article.
        But it is interesting to think that we (humans) have all agreed since a long ago that gold is a precious material just as it is.
        And that it is a precious material in exchange for we accept to give other really precious materials, such as food or water for instance.
        Gold for humans is a trustworthy claim on future energy (as Nate Hagens defines money…)
        It could have been another material, it is not important the gold itself.
        On gold we everybody agree about.

    • Hubbs says:

      Money, assuming it is a real store of value and medium of exchange, enables the creation of debt- more than thru simple barter. Debt, assuming it will be repaid with no debasement, is a form of future energy delivered to the present. The lifeblood of our economy is debt especially on a JIT system. If there is no future energy to allow a borrower to repay, then the whole debt system breaks down. The economy candle burns quickly at both ends: No energy, no credit.

      If there is only one 32 oz milkshake, you can drink it with one straw and it will last longer. You may even get the impression that there must not be much in the glass. OTOH, you can drink faster if you have multiple or bigger straws which may give the false impression of there being a lot of milkshake available, but the reality is, as with Seneca Cliff, you will finish it a lot sooner. The rate at which you deplete it does not affect how much there was originally. It may only alter your perception of how much there is.

      • CTG says:

        Similar to Lake Mead. It is shaped like a bowl. The drop in level is slow as the rim of the bowl is big. At the bottom of the bowl, the drop will be very high for the same volume of water.

        What we arw seeing now in the energy front is not dissimilar.

        • Good point.

          With energy, the fact that we are hitting energy limits is not nearly as obvious as the water level of Lake Mead. It is clear that we will not get much more out of Lake Mead, no matter what we do. Central Bankers do not realize where we really are, with respect to the world economy.

    • I would very much agree.

      In the back of my mind, Nate’s model is the one I have. Debt and “future promises” such as provided by the sale of shares of stock, allow greater “demand” than otherwise would be the case. This is what allows the inflation-adjusted price of oil to go much above $20 per barrel, I suspect. The world economy keeps adding more debt and more promises, making it look like the expenditure of effort now for energy extraction and projects of all kinds will ultimately be paid back.

      Of course, this cannot be the case. The financial system has to collapse somewhere along the way. With the financial system collapse, international trade drops way down. This is what brings the steep decline.

      The 1972 Limits to Growth Model does not include debt, (or money supply), and what would happen if there is a fairly sudden collapse of the world financial system. I would think that the financial collapse would bring down the system quite quickly.

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    Oh Jeez forgot to mention… norm…. Fast had a rather fit Thai girlfriend When In Bangkok… she was a uni student .. unfortunately I don’t have any photos to show you… nice (very fresh) girl but boring… and fit cant make up for that so it didn’t work out…

    • none of these ‘fit’ birds work out—wonder why that is.

      when a woman finds a man who doesn’t bore her to death–she usually stays around

      have you considered that eddy?

      As I said in a previous comment, it is always the lady who puts a man into a category

      only failures categorise themselves.

  44. Xabier says:

    Hmm, this is interesting.

    YT throws up recommendations for history channels, and this morning I saw an In Memoriam video for a channel founder, so clicked.

    Apparently, he has just died, at only 32, of …… carditis.

    He was going great guns – healthy, young family, just had 2nd child, plans for more channels – until only just under a year ago, then fell seriously ill, struggled, gone.

    No connection made to the vaxx, and it might not have be, of course, but doesn’t it raise suspicions as to timing, etc?

    Sad little tale.

    • The “long-duration storage” is a few hours to days. It is intended to transform wind and solar to more dependable energy resources at lower cost than other storage techniques.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Fusion is almost ready for prime time too… etc…

      We are being put to death… surely you must understand that these ridiculous stories are intended to calm the herd as the energy situation becomes critical — and difficult to ignore…

      The herd will grasp at any nonsense when they get a power bill that is triple what it was last year and it’s well over a hundred bucks to fill er up.

      Mr DNA is getting rather uncomfortable with this situation

    • JesseJames says:

      75% round trip efficiency claim is totally bogus. They are not including the grants and startup funding to operate, the construction of the facility (paid by the grants) and the ongoing maintenance. This is typical of any RE startup. Scaling up this concept to a large storage facility will include much more massive materials and construction investment, making it most likely non-viable efficiency wise.

    • I1 says:

      There’s more energy stored in that empty corn silo photoshopped next to whatever that is supposed to be.

    • Ed says:

      There is a startup in Oakland, CA that does the same thing using air rather than CO2.

      Compressed air storage have been used since the1870s.

      https://energystorage.org/why-energy-storage/technologies/compressed-air-energy-storage-caes/

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