When the Economy Gets Squeezed by Too Little Energy

Most people have a simple, but wrong, idea about how the world economy will respond to “not enough energy to go around.” They expect that oil prices will rise. With these higher prices, producers will be able to extract more fossil fuels so the system can go on as before. They also believe that wind turbines, solar panels and other so-called renewables can be made with these fossil fuels, perhaps extending the life of the system further.

The insight people tend to miss is the fact that the world’s economy is a physics-based, self-organizing system. Such economies grow for many years, but ultimately, they collapse. The underlying problem is that the population tends to grow too rapidly relative to the energy supplies necessary to support that population. History shows that such collapses take place over a period of years. The question becomes: What happens to an economy beginning its path toward full collapse?

One of the major uses for fossil fuel energy is to add complexity to the system. For example, roads, electricity transmission lines, and long-distance trade are forms of complexity that can be added to the economy using fossil fuels.

Figure 1. Chart by author pointing out that energy consumption and complexity are complementary. They operate in different directions. Complexity, itself, requires energy consumption, but its energy consumption is difficult to measure.

When energy per capita falls, it becomes increasingly difficult to maintain the complexity that has been put in place. It becomes too expensive to properly maintain roads, electrical services become increasingly intermittent, and trade is reduced. Long waits for replacement parts become common. These little problems build on one another to become bigger problems. Eventually, major parts of the world’s economy start failing completely.

When people forecast ever-rising energy prices, they miss the fact that market fossil fuel prices consider both oil producers and consumers. From the producer’s point of view, the price for oil needs to be high enough that new oil fields can be profitably developed. From the consumer’s point of view, the price of oil needs to be sufficiently low that food and other goods manufactured using oil products are affordable. In practice, oil prices tend to rise and fall, and rise again. On average, they don’t satisfy either the oil producers or the consumers. This dynamic tends to push the economy downward.

There are many other changes, as well, as fossil fuel energy per capita falls. Without enough energy products to go around, conflict tends to rise. Economic growth slows and turns to economic contraction, creating huge strains for the financial system. In this post, I will try to explain a few of the issues involved.

[1] What is complexity?

Complexity is anything that gives structure or organization to the overall economic system. It includes any form of government or laws. The educational system is part of complexity. International trade is part of complexity. The financial system, with its money and debt, is part of complexity. The electrical system, with all its transmission needs, is part of complexity. Roads, railroads, and pipelines are part of complexity. The internet system and cloud storage are part of complexity.

Wind turbines and solar panels are only possible because of complexity and the availability of fossil fuels. Storage systems for electricity, food, and fossil fuels are all part of complexity.

With all this complexity, plus the energy needed to support the complexity, the economy is structured in a very different way than it would be without fossil fuels. For example, without fossil fuels, a high percentage of workers would make a living by performing subsistence agriculture. Complexity, together with fossil fuels, allows the wide range of occupations that are available today.

[2] The big danger, as energy consumption per capita falls, is that the economy will start losing complexity. In fact, there is some evidence that loss of complexity has already begun.

In my most recent post, I mentioned that Professor Joseph Tainter, author of the book, The Collapse of Complex Societies, says that when energy supplies are inadequate, the resulting economic system will need to simplify–in other words, lose some of its complexity. In fact, we can see that such loss of complexity started happening as early as the Great Recession in 2008-2009.

The world was on a fossil fuel energy consumption per capita plateau between 2007 and 2019. It now seems to be in danger of falling below this level. It fell in 2020, and only partially rebounded in 2021. When it tried to rebound further in 2022, it hit high price limits, reducing demand.

Figure 2. Fossil fuel energy consumption per capita based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

There was a big dip in energy consumption per capita in 2008-2009 when the economy encountered the Great Recession. If we compare Figure 2 and Figure 3, we see that the big drop in energy consumption is matched by a big drop in trade as a percentage of GDP. In fact, the drop in trade after the 2008-2009 recession never rebounded to the former level.

Figure 3. Trade as a percentage of world GDP, based on data of the World Bank.

Another type of loss of complexity involves the drop in the recent number of college students. The number of students was rising rapidly between 1950 and 2010, so the downward trend represents a significant shift.

Figure 4. Total number of US full-time and part-time undergraduate college and university students, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

The shutdowns of 2020 added further shifts toward less complexity. Broken supply lines became more of a problem. Empty shelves in stores became common, as did long waits for newly ordered appliances and replacement parts for cars. People stopped buying as many fancy clothes. Brick and mortar stores did less well financially. In person conferences became less popular.

We know that, in the past, economies that collapsed lost complexity. In some cases, tax revenue fell too low for governments to maintain their programs. Citizens became terribly unhappy with the poor level of government services being provided, and they overthrew the governmental system.

The US Department of Energy states that it will be necessary to double or triple the size of the US electric grid to accommodate the proposed level of clean energy, including EVs, by 2050. This is, of course, a kind of complexity. If we are already having difficulty with maintaining complexity, how do we expect to double or triple the size of the US electric grid? The rest of the world would likely need such an upgrade, as well. A huge increase in fossil fuel energy, as well as complexity, would be required.

[3] The world’s economy is a physics-based system, called a dissipative structure.

Energy products of the right kinds are needed to make goods and services. With shrinking per capita energy, there will likely not be enough goods and services produced to maintain consumption at the level citizens are used to. Without enough goods and services to go around, conflict tends to grow.

Instead of growing and experiencing economies of scale, businesses will find that they need to shrink back. This makes it difficult to repay debt with interest, among other things. Governments will likely need to cut back on programs. Some governmental organizations may fail completely.

To a significant extent, how these changes happen is related to the maximum power principle, postulated by ecologist Howard T. Odum. Even when some inputs are inadequate, self-organizing ecosystems try to maintain themselves, as best possible, with the reduced supplies. Odum said, “During self-organization, system designs develop and prevail that maximize power intake, energy transformation, and those uses that reinforce production and efficiency.” As I see the situation, the self-organizing economy tends to favor the parts of the economy that can best handle the energy shortfall that will be taking place.

In Sections [4], [5], and [6], we will see that this methodology seems to lead to a situation in which competition leads to different parts of the economy (energy producers and energy consumers) being alternately disadvantaged. This approach leads to a situation in which the human population declines more slowly than in either of the other possible outcomes:

  • Energy producers win, and high energy prices prevail – The real outcome would be that high prices for food and heat for homes would quickly kill off much of the world’s population because of lack of affordability.
  • Energy consumers always win, and low energy prices prevail – The real outcome would be that energy supplies would fall very rapidly because of inadequate prices. Population would fall quickly because of a lack of energy supplies (particularly diesel fuel) needed to maintain food supplies.

[4] Prices: Competition between producers and customers will lead to fossil fuel energy prices that alternately rise and fall as extraction limits are hit. In time, this pattern can be expected to lead to falling fossil fuel energy production.

Energy prices are set through competition between:

[a] The prices that consumers can afford to pay for end products whose costs are indirectly determined by fossil fuel prices. Food, transportation, and home heating costs are especially fossil fuel price sensitive. Poor people are the most quickly affected by rising fossil fuel prices.

[b] The prices that producers require to profitably produce these fuels. These prices have been rising rapidly because the easy-to-extract portions were removed earlier. For example, the Wall Street Journal is reporting, “Frackers Increase Spending but See Limited Gains.”

If fossil fuel prices rise, the indirect result is inflation in the cost of many goods and services. Consumers become unhappy when inflation affects their lifestyles. They may demand that politicians put price caps in place to somehow stop this inflation. They may encourage politicians to find ways to subsidize costs, so that the higher costs are transferred to a different part of the economy. At the same time, the producers need the high prices, to be able to fund the greater reinvestment necessary to maintain, and even raise, future fossil fuel energy production.

The conflict between the high price producers need and the low prices that many consumers can afford is what leads to temporarily spiking energy prices. In fact, food prices tend to spike, too, since food is a kind of energy product for humans, and fossil fuel energy products (oil, especially) are used in growing and transporting the food products. In their book, Secular Cycles, researchers Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov report a pattern of spiking prices in their analysis of historical economies that eventually collapsed.

With oil prices spiking only temporarily, energy prices are, on average, too low for fossil fuel producers to afford adequate funds for reinvestment. Without adequate funds for reinvestment, production begins to fall. This is especially a problem as fields deplete, and funds needed for reinvestment rise to very high levels.

[5] Demand for Discretionary Goods and Services: Indirectly, demand for goods and services, especially in discretionary sectors of the economy, will also tend to get squeezed back by the rounds of inflation caused by spiking energy prices described in Item [4].

When customers are faced with higher prices because of spiking inflation rates, they will tend to reduce spending on discretionary items. For example, they will go out to eat less and spend less money at hair salons. They may travel less on vacation. Multiple generation families may move in together to save money. People will continue to buy food and beverages since these are essential.

Businesses in discretionary areas of the economy will be affected by this lower demand. They will buy fewer raw materials, including energy products, reducing the overall demand for energy products, and tending to pull energy prices down. These businesses may need to lay off workers and/or default on their debt. Laying off workers may further reduce demand for goods and services, pushing the economy toward recession, debt defaults, and thus lower energy prices.

We find that in some historical accounts of collapses, demand ultimately falls to close to zero. For example, see Revelation 18:11-13 regarding the fall of Babylon, and the lack of demand for goods, including the energy product of the day: slaves.

[6] Higher Interest Rates: Banks will respond to rounds of inflation described in Item [4] by demanding higher interest rates to offset the loss of buying power and the greater likelihood of default. These higher interest rates will have adverse impacts of their own on the economy.

If inflation becomes a problem, banks will want higher interest rates to try to offset the adverse impact of inflation on buying power. These higher interest rates will tend to reduce demand for goods that are often bought with debt, such as homes, cars, and new factories. As a result, the sale prices of these assets are likely to fall. Higher interest rates will tend to produce the same effect for many types of assets, including stocks and bonds. To make matters worse, defaults on loans may also rise, leading to write-offs for the organizations carrying these loans on their balance sheets. For example, the used car dealer Caravan is reported to be near bankruptcy because of issues related to falling used car prices, higher interest rates, and higher default rates on debt.

An even more serious problem with higher interest rates is the harm they do to the balance sheets of banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. If bonds were previously purchased at a lower interest rate, the value of the bonds is less at a higher interest rate. Accounting for these organizations can temporarily hide the problem if interest rates quickly revert to the lower level at which they were purchased. The real problem occurs if inflation is persistent, as it seems to be now, or if interest rates keep rising.

[7] A second major conflict (after the buyer/producer conflict in Item [4], [5], and [6]) is the conflict in how the output of goods and services should be split between returns to complexity and returns to basic production of necessary goods including food, water, and mineral resources such as fossil fuels, iron, nickel, copper, and lithium.

Growing complexity in many forms is something that we have come to value. For example, physicians now earn high wages in the US. People in top management positions in companies often earn very high wages. The top people in large companies that buy food from farmers earn high wages, but farmers producing cattle or growing crops don’t fare nearly as well.

As energy supply becomes more constrained, the huge chunks of output taken by those with advanced degrees and high positions within the large companies gets to be increasingly problematic. The high incomes of citizens in major cities contrasts with the low incomes in rural areas. Resentment among people living in rural areas grows when they compare themselves to how well people in urbanized areas are doing. People in rural areas talk about wanting to secede from the US and wanting to form their own country.

There are also differences among countries in how well their economies get rewarded for the goods and services they produce. The United States, the EU, and Japan have been able to get better rewards for the complex goods that they produce (such as banking services, high-tech medicine, and high-tech agricultural products) compared to Russia and the oil exporting countries of the Middle East. This is another source of conflict.

Comparing countries in terms of per capita GDP on a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis, we find that the countries that focus on complexity have significantly higher PPP GDP per capita than the other areas listed. This creates resentment among countries with lower per-capita PPP GDP.

Figure 5. Average Purchasing Power Parity GDP Per Capita in 2021, in current US dollars, based on data from the World Bank.

Russia and the Arab World, with all their energy supplies, come out behind. Ukraine does particularly poorly.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is between two countries that are doing poorly on this metric. Ukraine is also much smaller than Russia. It appears that Russia is in a conflict with a competitor that it is likely to be able to defeat, unless NATO members, including the US, can give immense support to Ukraine. As I discuss in the next section, the industrial ability of the US and the EU is waning, making it difficult for such support to be available.

[8] As conflict becomes a major issue, which economy is largest and is best able to defend itself becomes more important.

Figure 6. Total (not per capita) PPP GDP for the US, EU, and China, based on data of the World Bank.

Back in 1990, the EU had a greater PPP GDP than did either the US or China. Now, the US is a little ahead of the EU. More importantly, China has come from way behind both the US and EU, and now is clearly ahead of both in PPP GDP.

We often hear that the US is the largest economy, but this is only true if GDP is measured in current US dollars. If differences in actual purchasing power are reflected, China is significantly ahead. China is also far ahead in total electricity production and in many types of industrial output, including cement, steel, and rare earth minerals.

The conflict in Ukraine is now leading countries to take sides, with Russia and China on the same side, and the United States together with the EU on Ukraine’s side. While the US has many military bases around the world, its military capabilities have increasingly been stretched thin. The US is a major oil producer, but the mix of oil it produces is of lower and lower average quality, especially if obtaining diesel and jet fuel from it are top priorities.

Figure 7. Chart by OPEC, showing the mix of liquids that now make up US production. Even the “Tight crude” tends to be quite “light,” making it less suitable for producing diesel and jet fuel than conventional crude oil. Chart from OPEC’s February 2023 Monthly Oil Market Report.

Huge pressure is building now for China and Russia to trade in their own currencies, rather than the US dollar, putting pressure on the US financial system and its status as the reserve currency. It is also not clear whether the US would be able to fight on more than one front in a conventional war. A conflict with Iran has been mentioned as a possibility, as has a conflict with China over Taiwan. It is not at all clear that a conflict between NATO and China-Russia is winnable by the NATO forces, including the US.

It appears to me that, to save fuel, more regionalization of trade is necessary with the Asian countries being primary trading partners of each other, rather than the rest of the world. If such a regionalization takes place, the US will be at a disadvantage. It currently depends on supply lines stretching around the world for computers, cell phones, and other high-tech devices. Without these supply lines, the standards of living in the US and the EU would likely decline quickly.

[9] Clearly, the narratives that politicians and the news media tell citizens are under pressure. Even if they understand the true situation, politicians need a different narrative to tell voters and young people wondering about what career to pursue.

Every politician would like a “happily ever after” story to tell citizens. Fortunately, from the point of view of politicians, there are lots of economists and scientists who put together what I call “overly simple” models of the economy. With these overly simple models of the economy, there is no problem ahead. They believe the standard narrative about oil and other energy prices rising indefinitely, so there is no energy problem. Instead, our only problem is climate change and the need to transition to green energy.

The catch is that our ability to scale up green energy is just an illusion, built on the belief that complexity can scale up indefinitely without the use of fossil fuels.

We are left with a major problem: Our current complex economy is in danger of degrading remarkably in the next few years, but we have no replacement available. Even before then, we may need to do battle, in new ways, with other countries for the limited resources that are available.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Financial Implications, oil shortages and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

3,823 Responses to When the Economy Gets Squeezed by Too Little Energy

  1. Ed says:

    When the war between the US and Russia goes hot the democrats will be able to arrest and imprison all opponents.

    • ivanislav says:

      Maybe a few high high profile ones, but not the population at large. 2nd amendment makes large-scale actions impossible.

      • I saw a chart of the number of US citizens who are imprisoned. It rose, and recently has come back down. (This isn’t the chart I saw earlier today, but it is similar.)


        A country has to be rich to be able to imprison a large number of people, feed them, keep them warm, and take care of their health needs. As budgets get stretched, it gets easier to think of a reason to give shorter sentences, or jail fewer in the first place. It takes fossil fuels to care for inmates in the style the US does.

        • Minority of One says:

          “A country has to be rich to be able to imprison a large number of people, feed them, keep them warm, and take care of their health needs.”

          That is true, but I am not sure that a country that has implemented a vaxx that is intended to bring the population down, and treated hospital patients with a compound with a nickname of run-death-is-near, will be too troubled about extra deaths in prison. I suspect it would be encouraged, is being encouraged if they are all vaxxed.

        • Dennis L. says:

          Could it be that imprisonment can vary in degree? The US at least in lip service has tried to do “well” by prisoners, not to say it is any fun.

          Dennis L.

    • Sam says:

      uh oh I might be trouble…

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      no worries.

      the USA would have to declare war against Russia first.

      “The last time the United States formally declared war, using specific terminology, on any nation was in 1942…”

      it’s been 80+ years, so it is extremely doubtful that Congress would declare war.

      of course, these woketardfascistDemoncrats don’t seem to have much restraint on their woketardfascism, so anti-war protests might be met with brownshirtDemoncrat tactics.

      didn’t the USA once have an anti-war political party?

      like in the 1960s and the 1970s?

      • Herbie Ficklestein. says:

        Actually. There was a movement back before WWII to keep the United States neutral and keep the war budget to a minimum led by the likes of Charles Lindbergh and others.
        After the first World War there was an anti war sentiment in the country. That is why the politicians NEEDED the Japanese to do a sneak attack at Pearl Harbor to break that mindset.
        It is thought Roosevelt knew about their plans….and allowed it to happen for that reason..
        Like I pointed out to Ed, mind games are at play

  2. Yoshua says:


    The former highest ranking German soldier says that the aim of the war in Ukraine is to weaken Russia so that they are forced to turn towards the West and then against China.
    China is the real enemy and the only real rival for the US for global dominance.
    There’s a fairly good Google translation.

    • China may be the only real rival for the US for global dominance, but it needs a lot of trading partners for oil and for food.

      I don’t see Russia turning toward the West. The West is too “needy.”

  3. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:
    • Thanks! I think someone else found this link also. It is good.

    • CTG says:

      Here is a comment from someone in ZH :

      The video has been faked. The proof is in the video. Pause the clip around 0:16 to get a good look at the propeller tips. All 4 blades have a double yellow stripe at the tip. Now pause the clip around 0:41. Two undamaged blades do not have the yellow stripe.

      Another thing of interest, not quite so conclusive: the last clip showing the damaged propeller is only 2 seconds long. Look at the clouds in the background, and compare them to the clouds visible just before the video pixilates. Very different clouds, hm?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        When you compare this to the moon module close-ups… they made a much better attempt at faking it

        Apparently some drunk carpenters made the lunar module out of left over pieces from a job

      • Dennis L. says:

        “Sometimes a cigar is a cigar.” Freud I think.

        Dennis L.

      • Vern Baker says:

        On the second video, the trajectory appeared to be realigned by ~90 degrees. You can see the sun now lights up the one side of the rudder. With the yellow strips, its possible the increased luminosity has adjusted the contrast so that they are hiding in the shadows. If you turn up the contract on a still, it seems like there is a bit of lightness where the colour bars are.

  4. Fast Eddy says:

    This is absolutely outstanding — do you not agree norm??

    If Thalidomide had been released in 2020 instead of the late 1950s
    1 million harmed babies instead of 100,000?


    here is the original … https://arkmedic.substack.com/p/a-miscarriage-of-statistics

    Fast Eddy has laid a whipping on Caz the Imb ecile Doctor

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    If Thalidomide had been released in 2020 instead of the late 1950s
    1 million harmed babies instead of 100,000?


    • slow start this morning eddy

      i do hope all is well, and you havent leapt out of bed in such a hurry to get to your kb and got one foot stuck in the gozunder

      having me on your mind from the moment your eyes open each morning, is not healthy

      you will i know forgive me if i do not return the compliment, my attention is instead often held by the decision on which of two raindrops will reach the bottom of the window pane first.

      Your dispensed droplets of wisdom seem of secondary importance

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    Is Malone Mr Rabbit … Milner…?

    This comes as no surprise :

    mRNA COVID Vaccines Contain DNA That May Turn Human Cells Into Long-Term Spike Protein Factories, INDEFINITE; is it ok to ask what did Malone know & why did he not tell us? Is it ok? Should we ask?


    • ivanislav says:

      I don’t think in Malone’s time they were using pseudo-uridine, the synthetic mRNA analogue that is resistant to degradation.

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    Although I’m not a doctor, I’m sure I know enough biology (from high school) to share Dr. Byram Bridle’s bafflement that the Canadian Cancer Society is now urging trans women to get screened for cervical cancer. (See below.)

    As I share Dr. Bridle’s interest in this matter, and hope that someone can enlighten him, I think that he should turn to Dr. Fauci, and ask him to explain how people without certain reproductive organs are now at risk of getting cancer in those organs.


    This is evidence that the PR Team is slowly driving the MOREONS insane.

    In a sane world — would this be possible?

    In a sane world would the Bidens be permitted to fondle young girls and take kick backs with FBI ignoring their behaviour.

    In a sane world would Trump be put forward as solution to the Biden joke – and a hero of the anti vaxxers – when he was the one who fronted Operation Warp Speed.

    Enough insanity and most people just give up and accept being slaughtered

    • drb753 says:

      The new definition of women! someone who can get cervical cancer. The world may be about to end but there are endless comedy opportunities on the way down.

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    THIS … is a MUST WATCH https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/69231

  9. jigisup says:

    A bit of humour. I even smiled.

    • Ad for farm machinery in Ukraine “reads “totaled, flooded, good for parts”. The 202-622-2000 number is the actual number for the General Information line of the Dept of Treasury.

      • Dennis L. says:

        An aside:

        A firm in Ukraine doing the engineering and selling through the Netherlands made some nice RTK units for precision planting.

        Software updates and maintenance could be a challenge.

        Dennis L.

  10. Yoshua says:

    “Europeans have managed to reduce energy consumption by 20%”- Ursula Von Leyen

    This means that 20% of the European economy is gone? European industries are going bankrupt.. shutting down plants… production… moving production to US China Russia
    This should show up as a financial crisis in Europe? The ECB just hiked the rate again

    • Warm winter enters into this. Or is the counting of energy consumption wrong? 20% of electricity is a lot less than 20% of total energy, for example.

      • drb753 says:

        right. My guess is 20% of heating only. Industries are still working and there were many closures over the years, but no real spike lately. I was surprised to see that even energy intensive small companies in my region are still all open.

  11. Mirror on the wall says:

    ‘Thank goodness for them sanctions!’

    The self-organising system works in strange ways. Russia may well look back at the entire Maidan/ UKR fiasco as the best thing that could have happened for it. Russia has basically been forced to make changes to how it operates.

    Clearly, Russia, China and the rest of the world have multiple motives to work to insulate themselves from the dollar and the Western financial system as a whole, and to develop their own trade and reserve currencies and financial structures.


    Peskov: the banking system of the Russian Federation is insured against the crisis that is unfolding in the United States

    MOSCOW, March 14. /TASS/. The Russian banking system is, to a certain extent, insured against the negative impact of the crisis in the United States by the sanctions previously imposed by the West on Russia. This was announced on Tuesday by the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov.

    “Now there is practically none, because our banking system, of course, has, let’s say, certain ties with some segments of the international financial system, but for the most part is under illegal restrictions, again introduced by the collective West. Therefore, there is no harm from without. Here we are, to a certain extent, insured against the negative impact of the crisis that is now unfolding across the ocean,” he answered reporters when asked whether problems in the United States could “spread” to the Russian banking system.

    On March 10, the California Financial Protection Department announced the bankruptcy of the 16th largest bank in the US, SVB. It catered primarily to tech workers and venture capital-funded companies, including some of the industry’s most established brands. It is noted that this was the largest bank failure in the United States since the worst financial crisis of 2008. At the same time, the White House stressed that the current situation in the US banking sector is not its actual repetition.

    • Everything I have seen indicates that Russia uses debt to a much smaller extent than in the US does.

      When my husband and I visited Russia a few years ago, we visited some homes of Russian people. One of them was a house that the couple had built by themselves, without the use of the mortgage. They would save up some money, and then build a little (with their own labor) with their saved up money. Eventually, they had a small section that they could live in, as they added on to the rest of the house.

      The house was less than perfect in some ways because professional builders hadn’t built it. But it worked OK for the family. This was a couple with professional jobs who couldn’t get a mortgage.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Did that with my father, was told that grandma and my mother pounded in lath prior to wall board for the walls. No mortgage, one nail at a time.

        Very proud of the neighborhood, when my grandfather purchased the house before his passing it was a whore house. We improved the neighborhood. Even then, it was a tough neighborhood, parents worked to improve it, PTA, etc.

        “But, it worked OK for the family.” So quaint, a man in the house, no welfare, no food stamps. How ever did they manage?

        Could this be the future instead of mass chaos and violence? One can hope.

        Dennis L.

  12. Herbie Ficklestein. says:

    I’m part of the solution’: Bill Gates says he will keep using private jets, campaigning on climate change — after being asked if he’s a hypocrite. Here are 3 actions he wants you to take

    This clown is a piece of work….

    Billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates has been a vocal advocate for addressing climate change. But like many of the ultra-rich, he also travels in a private jet, which emits quite a bit of greenhouse gas

    Well, I buy the gold standard of, funding Climeworks, to do direct air capture that far exceeds my family’s carbon footprint,” Gates replied. “And I spend billions of dollars on climate innovation. So you know, should I stay at home and not come to Kenya and learn about farming and malaria?”

    “I’m comfortable with the idea that not only am I not part of the problem by paying for the offsets, but also through the billions that my Breakthrough Energy Group is spending, that I’m part of the solution,” the Microsoft co-founder added.

    Reduce your carbon footprint at home
    Gates suggests that you can lower your home’s emissions by making it more energy efficient.

    Drive an electric vehicle

    Try fake meat
    We are seeing more than more plant-based protein products on store shelves these days. Gates suggests you try them, even though they might not taste as good as real meat.

    Sorry, Billie Boy, I don’t follow me at heads

  13. Foolish Fitz says:

    CBDC in July for the US and it’s been given the rather uninspiring name FedNow.

    FedNow. Do they pay people to come up with these names and if yes, where do you apply?


    • Federal Reserve announces July launch for the FedNow Service

      “We couldn’t be more excited about the forthcoming FedNow launch, which will enable every participating financial institution, the smallest to the largest and from all corners of the country, to offer a modern instant payment solution,” said Ken Montgomery, first vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and FedNow program executive. “With the launch drawing near, we urge financial institutions and their industry partners to move full steam ahead with preparations to join the FedNow Service.”

      Many early adopters have declared their intent to begin using the service in July, including a diverse mix of financial institutions of all sizes, the largest processors, and the U.S. Treasury.

      The FedNow Service will launch with a robust set of core clearing and settlement functionality and value-added features. More features and enhancements will be added in future releases to continue supporting safety, resiliency and innovation in the industry as the FedNow network expands in the coming years.

      “With the FedNow Service, the Federal Reserve is creating a leading-edge payments system that is resilient, adaptive, and accessible,” said Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and FedNow Program executive sponsor. “The launch reflects an important milestone in the journey to help financial institutions serve customer needs for instant payments to better support nearly every aspect of our economy.”

  14. Mirror on the wall says:

    A republican tsunami is on the horizon. Australia is likely to hold a referendum on monarchy at the next election, Jamaica by 2025, and other countries are liable to follow.

    Australia has already ditched Charles from its bank notes, so Australians do not have to look at his mug every time they pull out their wallet/ purse. Support for monarchy has also collapsed in Canada.


    King Charles haemorrhaging support in the Commonwealth with Republicanism ‘inevitable’

    King Charles will likely be the last British monarch in some of the overseas realms still considering him their head of state, a historian believes. Andrew Walkling, Professor at Binghamton University in New York, thinks this is “inevitable”, adding having a British monarch leading countries overseas is increasingly being perceived by many as a “relic of a past notion”. It comes as republican sentiment is on the rise in Australia, which has recently decided to ditch the King from its banknotes.

    Asked whether King Charles is facing a wave of republicanism in the overseas realms, Professor Walking told: “It does actually seem to me as though there is a growing desire to eliminate the monarchy in overseas territories and that includes both larger countries like Australia and also very small nations like some of the Caribbean ones.

    Following his election as Prime Minister in the spring of 2022, Australian Labor leader Anthony Albanese appointed Matt Thistlethwaite MP Assistant Minister for the Republic, tasked with the Government’s policy of establishing a republic.

    Dr McCreery partially credits Australia’s change in demographics as well as the recent negative publicity surrounding the Royal Family for the move towards republicanism being experienced Down Under.

    Referring to the public rift between the Duke and Duchess of Sussex and the Firm detailed by Prince Harry in his memoir Spare, Dr McCreery said: “It has caused people to think ‘is this really the best we can do?’ Some people are thinking, the Royal Family is just fighting with one another – how can they possibly put our interests, as head of state, is that really going to work for us?”

    Among other countries to keep an eye on when it comes to the decision of ditching the Crown is Jamaica, as in the midst of the now Prince and Princess of Wales’ tour of Caribbean countries in March 2022, its Prime Minister Andrew Holness informed William and Kate of his Government’s intention to abolish the monarchy in the nation by 2025.

    Barbados already took the plunge in November 2021, when it became the world’s youngest republic following a ceremony held in Bridgetown and attended by the then heir to the throne, Charles.

    While Barbados was the first of the former overseas realms to take a similar decision in almost three decades, Professor Walkling believes that, if a couple more nations were to follow its example in the near future, there may be a “domino effect”.

    • reante says:

      Republicanism was the agrarian precursor to industrial national socialism.

      • Ed says:

        What is this “industrial national socialism”? Is it what Klaus Schwab wants?

        • reante says:

          No Schwab wants global technofascist neofeudalism. He will not get it because the people above him are realists and know that globalism reverts to nationalisms during energy collapse and finance capitalism ends because it requires growth. Nationalism plus end of finance capitalism equals national socialism.

          The agrarian and industrial modifiers were simply to point out that national socialism, which is a politics of industrial civilization, is based on republicanist political principles which are formally traditional agrarian principles.

  15. Mrs S says:

    Apparently $54 billion isn’t enough to plug the hole in Credit Suisse’s balance sheet:


    I wonder how big the hole actually is….

    • jigisup says:

      THe real hole? Money created vs real shit?

      Quite recently the term trillion was a unknown word. It was used only in astronomy. Wild guess. The real hole is 250-500 trillion.

      • Minority of One says:

        A few years ago the total value of Deutsche Bank’s derivative trades / liabilities was 50 trillion Euros. So a swing in the wrong direction of 1% and they would be out of pocket by E500B. I doubt CS is much different.

      • Dennis L. says:

        With entitlements, pensions, etc. you might be close.

        Dennis L.

    • drb753 says:

      Interesting. But the hole has been known for years. How did they patch it up earlier?

    • Dennis L. says:

      Apparently $19B of frozen assets are in Credit Suisse, can’t verify, I have not audited their books.

      $19B is not that much unless one has to write the check.

      Russian money is backed by stuff.

      Interesting times.

      Dennis L.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Excellent … CS is Rapacious… a giant money sucking monster haha

      Just make it an even trillion why don’t we.

  16. Mirror on the wall says:

    Support for a continuation of monarchy has collapsed in Canada.


    Fewer than One-in-Five Canadians Want Monarchy to Continue

    Vancouver, BC [March 15, 2023] – The proportion of Canadians who would like to maintain a form of government with a monarch has fallen to the lowest level recorded in 14 years, a new Research Co. poll has found.

    In the online survey of a representative national sample, only 19% of Canadians say they would prefer for Canada to remain a monarchy, down 12 points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in September 2022.

    More than four-in-five Canadians (44%, +8) would prefer for Canada to have an elected head of state, while 22% (-2) do not care either way and 15% (+4) are undecided.

    Fewer than one-in-four Albertans (24%, -18), Atlantic Canadians (also 24%, -16) and British Columbians (23%, -11) endorse the continuation of the monarchy. The numbers are lower in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (20%, -6), Ontario (19%, -12) and Quebec (14%, -11).

    Across the country, only 32% of Canadians (-14) have a favourable opinion of King Charles III, while fewer than one-in-four (22%, -10) express similar feelings about Queen Consort Camilla.

    Just over a third of Atlantic Canadians (36%), Ontarians (34%) and British Columbians (also 34%) hold positive views on King Charles III. The numbers are lower in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (32%), Alberta (30%) and Quebec (27%).

    “In February 2022, almost two thirds of Canadians (64%) held favourable views on Queen Elizabeth II,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Thirteen months later, the rating for the current monarch is exactly half.”

  17. https://thecradle.co/article-view/22457/interviews

    Sergey Glazyev: ‘The road to financial multipolarity will be long and rocky’

    In an exclusive interview with The Cradle, Russia’s top macroeconomics strategist criticizes Moscow’s slow pace of financial reform and warns there will be no new global currency without Beijing. . .

    On the war in Ukraine, Glazyev stressed that as it stands, China is profiting handsomely, as its economy has not been sanctioned – at least not yet – by US/EU and Beijing is buying Russian oil and gas at heavily discounted prices. The funds Russians are losing in terms of selling energy to the EU will have to be compensated by the proposed Power of Siberia II pipeline that will run from Russia to China, via Mongolia – but that will take a few more years.

    Glazyev sketched the possibility of a similar debate on a new currency taking place inside the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – yet the obstacles could be even stronger. Once again, that will depend on political will, in this case by Russia-China: a joint decision by Xi and Putin, with crucial input by India – and as Iran becomes a full member, also energy-rich Tehran.

    What is realistic so far is increasing bilateral trade in their own currencies, as in the Russia-China, Russia-India, Iran-India, Russia-Iran, and China-Iran cases.

    Essentially, Glazyev does not see heavily sanctioned Russia taking a leadership role in setting up a new global financial system. That may fall to China’s Global Security Initiative. The division into two blocs seems inevitable: the dollarized zone – with its inbuilt eurozone – in contrast with the Global South majority with a new financial system and new trading currency for international trade. Domestically, individual nations will keep doing business in their own national currencies.

  18. Yoshua says:

    Depleted Uranium

    The Kremlin said years ago that they would create a war zone in Eastern Ukraine when the time comes and stand behind the East Ukrainians. At the frontline they have Wagner prisoners, Donbass militia, volunteers and some mobalized reservists with old Soviet weapons. The professional RuAF is in the rear operating Russia’s modern weapon systems, protected by the civilians as a human shield.

    • jigisup says:

      There is some truth to what you say. I disagree with the human shield part.

      Different qualities are needed to operate weapon systems and combat effective in the brutal closing with the enemy. Its the same in any military. The destruction that war causes is not just on the battlefield what it does to combatants has cascading effects when they return to society. It is beneficial to limit combat exposure to certain groups of men in this modern world as one hopes they will return to society. Its hard for a wife to learn she can no longer sleep by her husband because he might harm her in those seconds between sleeping and waking. Some men desire combat. In the USA they join the Marines. In Russia they join Wagner. Wagner also recruits from prisons. Prison is a very strict society-men living with men in close quarters and exposure to violence. If you can survive that you have a good background to incorporate in a military unit. They dont select the most anti social they select those with qualities that allow them integration into a military society and a tolerance for exposure to violence. Wagner is a hybrid. I believe it to be somewhat different than the western hybrids such as blackwater. You wouldnt use black water for brutal close quarters.

      Generally the conflict is painted as polarized. Russia the agressor by one side and USA and its nationalists by the other. In real life things are gray. There are truths to both sides.

      The losers are the people of Ukraine. What a fantastic country! What potential it had!

      Ultimately all involved may lose. The USA continues its military spending dollar destruction. Russia loses precious resources on military efforts. And the strategic nuclear exchange. All people lose.

      The big winner on a downward scale is China. Including strategic nuclear exchange. Russia and CCP China are incompatible in the long run and they both know it. Christian country vs Communist country. This is why the USA would be welcomed into the new economic associations growing. None of this is written in stone. Middle ground can be found. USA can change. CCP can change. Russia was quite willing to change as demonstrated by its liberal accommodation of the EU. Should the USA fade not burnout (not going to happen) Russia will be able to find middle ground with Russia. China not being the stupid shortsighted USA state department will not intervene directly in Russia but Russia will fade away.

      Change requires participation not domination and that seems directly contrary to the USA organism operating principle. Organisms that can not adapt perish.

      The primary characteristic of fascism is always war. Whether the mask is blue or red makes no difference.

      None the less there are facts. Biden started converting Ukraine to a personal as well as elite play pen as vice president. His “assignment” and by his own account below quite enjoyable. The unfortunate extensive corruption in Ukraine as well as the significant but minority anti slav sentiment made it ideal. A baron in the wild wild west.

      All this was well known. In the early stages of the democratic primary some had strong reservations about Biden as president as it was clear he represented the worst of imperialistic tendency and corruption. It was no secret what he was and is. The massive propaganda directed at Trump won out and the democratic party is now the preferred politic of the MIC. Anyone who brings attention to what Biden is is painted as supporting Trump. That little tool set is extremely destructive to democracy. Russia is no angel. Russia has its own set of problems and they are substantial. That the USA is a empire of lies is not debatable. USA may be regarded as a better master than China in the future. That doesn’t make it right. Iraq. Libya. Syria. Ukraine. Millions dead. Squalor. Failed states. Precious infrastructure destroyed.

      I consider the USA state department un-American. Completely contrary to the American ideals of freedom, self-determination, and justice.


      • drb753 says:

        Yes, the human shields is total gibberish. The Ukrainians have bombed the Donbass since 2014, killing 14,000 civilians before the war, and now because there are Russians there all of a sudden they are human shields? what were they before February 2022?

      • Ed says:

        The entire district of Columbia is contrary to American ideals.

    • Jarle says:

      > The professional RuAF is in the rear operating Russia’s modern weapon systems, protected by the civilians as a human shield.

      How do the fåck do you know?!

      so tired of people sputtering BS

  19. Student says:


    Voxnews.info posts a video and pictures on how the drone incident happened according to them.
    Propeller blades damaged by the volume of jet fuel launched at high speed seem more probable instead what US say of a direct collision by the jet. But I’m not an expert.


    • reante says:


      that was a larger fuel dump than I realized could be the case. Those are bid pressure washers with the wide angle nozzles on em. From seeing the video you still think they drowned it? Propeller doesn’t look that bad.

  20. Herbie Ficklestein. says:

    More good news for Eddie!

    common and widely used chemical may be fueling the rise of the world’s fastest-growing brain condition – Parkinson’s disease. For the past 100 years, trichloroethylene (TCE) has been used to decaffeinate coffee, degrease metal, and dry clean clothes. It contaminates the Marine Corps base Camp Lejeune, 15 toxic Superfund sites in Silicon Valley, and up to one-third of groundwater in the U.S. TCE causes cancer, is linked to miscarriages and congenital heart disease, and is associated with a 500% increased risk of Parkinson’s disease.
    According to the National Cancer Institute, TCE is present in some household products, including cleaning wipes, aerosol cleaning products, tool cleaners, paint removers, spray adhesives, carpet cleaners, and spot removers.


    Glad I detest the taste of decaffeinated coffee.

    • I searched to try to figure out where this groundwater contamination was coming from. I found a few military studies relating to their own local situations, but no study of the situation in general.

  21. Dennis L. says:

    Men being men, or a fighter pilot is a fighter pilot.

    Footage from the DOD, short, very good quality, Russian jet approaches, pass not seen, but immediately after there is the propellor of the raptor, bent. Damn fine flying.

    Fighter pilots seem to get very good looking wives, it is not unusual for their children to be pilots. Exceptional men, biology in action.


    Dennis L.

    • Cromagnon says:

      As a pilot (just puddle jumpers) I think the footage is awesome and inspiring from a Russian perspective.
      Why the Americans would release that I have no idea.
      The Russian bird is awe inspiring.

      That said, as our human world destroys itself I think “ Infantry” genetics will prosper.

      Conan the Barbarian was quite possibly a channeled tale from a previous Age of Heros.

    • Is there an international law against dumping fuel on a drone that a country considers to be intruding too near their territory?

      • Dennis L. says:

        I suppose it depends on who is willing to enforce it.

        It is my recollection that Musk once said something to the effect that wars were a result entrenched bureaucracies that simply locked up or something close.

        The US spends maybe 10x Russia on “defense” yet runs out of bullets.

        I am a very proud American, I believe in my country, but sometimes policy is not congruent with reality; that leads to serious problems.

        In the movie “High Noon” Frank Miller comes to town with the idea of killing the town marshal played by Gary Cooper. Two scenarios:

        1. Cooper goes into the street with a policy paper telling Frank he cannot wear guns in town. Result is obvious.

        2. Cooper goes into the street with two six guns, Frank and his three sidemen go to the cemetery in boxes, Cooper leaves town with Grace Kelly. Biology in action, policy had him as a “retired” marshal. Supposedly, this is one of if not the most requested movie in the White House theater.

        Second seems a better option, policy can be rewritten.

        Dennis L

      • Student says:

        I think that the point expressed by the Russian ambassador reaches a very delicate issue that could have justified even worse reactions from Russians:
        ”the MQ-9 Reaper […] can wield nearly 4,000 pounds of explosives, like laser guided bombs, or up to eight Hellfire missiles.”
        The Reaper was going towards Russia border, maybe it would have not entered the border, but it represented a threat.
        Furthermore it had the transponder switched off.
        Probably if the drone should have changed direction, the jet would have not made the second passage.
        If we see it under this light, we can say that Russian pilots have been kind towards US aviation.

        • Thanks for the link. I can understand why the Russians might have responded even more harshly. The article makes the point at the end, “Who gets to the downed Reaper, first, matters.” I am sure the US doesn’t want Russia to get there first.

        • Student says:

          And when the ambassador said ‘Russian pilots behave in a professional way’ probably means that.
          I’m not an expert, but I have the impression that US army probably acknowledges that and probably US Army is not angry with Russians for that specific episode.
          They know that it is something that can happen and they are aware that the counterpart didn’t over react.

          The negative point is that the episode became public and politicians and journalist are not able or are not willing to judge the episode as a ‘fair’ skirmish.

    • reante says:

      Hadn’t watched it on fullscreen yet. Two passes, I didn’t realize that. The propeller looks worse than I thought, twisted as well as tipped. Looks to me like catching the propeller was an accident , a function of getting lower because the first pass didn’t work out, and the fact that he was in a banking turn of course. Maybe the reaper was leaving the airspace in contention
      and the pilot didn’t have time to make a straight run from behind in order to keep his wingtips level. The truly badass move would be to dump fuel ass down and nose up. Looks like a mistake to this nobody, and somehow I kinda doubt he had the greenlight to make contact. I also doubt he had the ability. When I first heard the story, in my mind’s eye the jet must have been passing the drone much more slowly than what the video shows, and letting the propeller turn into the jet wing. Nobody can reliably bring a drone down by contact at that speed differential.

      • Cromagnon says:

        Maybe they just didn’t show the afterburners on the Su scorching the reaper?

        • reante says:

          We talking about lightning the fart, on the next level? Does make you wonder why we don’t get a longer version. Or is there one out there?

          • nikoB says:

            the whole thing looks cgi to me.

            • reante says:

              Then they definitely should’ve lit the fart.

              Damn, really? Does the fuel look kinda like the liquid metal bad guy in Terminator 2 to you too. It does seem pretty weak and disappointing that the
              rotating camera goes to color bars (is that weird?) before the feed registers an impact and then just comes back online and still has full functionality as it rotates aft to get the shot of the propeller…

  22. Dennis L. says:

    Real world.

    I am looking at a new tenant for my land, the last one made good money but mined the soil in some areas; I stop such things.

    Visited with a neighbor, he and his wife are now living on their farm in a converted milkhouse(milking cows is now an industrial operation), his son, daughter in law and grand children live in the main house. Demographics in action.

    They farm their fields with care, their farm has been in the family for >100 years and by yesterday’s standards would have been of moderate size; no longer, that is a different post.

    A group does better than one, I am joining a different group, old, very well cared for Norwegian Church on the corner, playground on one side, cemetery on the other, acerage someone gifted to church on third side, rented.

    My new tenant is on the town board, another I know also is on same board.

    It is a group, always a group. Much of what is posted here seems consistent with reality. Somehow as we age we must be useful, bring something to the table; otherwise the old will be not unlike my great grandfather, moving from one child’s home to another, living under a stairs, eating with the family, doing what his age allowed. He had say eight children so he was not much of a burden, he did his job as a man when younger and thus earned a place.

    I had a wonderful professional life, now in Rochester, MN I receive offers to have my teeth cleaned for $59. I was paid much better in the eighties; dentistry is a tough grind now, deflation. I live in a real world, I adapt; the market is fluctuating have you noticed?

    Dennis L.

  23. Student says:

    (Il Paragone)

    ”Mr. Colombo writes a letter to his hospital in Modena after suffering serious adverse events caused by mRNA vaccine”

    “Now I’m paying on myself, psychologically, physically and with money for all the endless tests and continuous checks, some very invasive that I am forced to do.
    My doctor, who was previously a strong pro-vax, now he doesn’t look me anymore in my eyes, he looks at the reports and says:
    ‘Eh.. you are one of the many, you have to know that I had also some deaths among my patients…’


  24. geno mir says:

    Gail, I think you commentded on this data revision – https://www.princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2023/3/15/hi6novds423jhaiom6nq6hhy7rzl8m

    • Yes, this is also by Steve Kopits. It very much overlaps what I received as an email. It also notes that rig counts are slightly down, which is not good for future production.

    • “Electric vehicle owner should only be allowed to charge their vehicles using wind or solar power. Otherwise it is just pretend.”

      I agree. Vehicle owners probably not able to charge their cars in winter, for example.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Laughing quietly. I assume you do not like nor do you own an EV and solar and wind are not your “juice” of choice.

        Dennis L.

      • Vern Baker says:

        Hydro! Hydro! Hydro! The best of the renewables…. ((once all the blasting and concrete pouring is gotten out the way))

      • Jan says:

        Bad times for solar are October, November, December. In January batteries are full again, except on rainy days.

        • Yorchichan says:

          Why is January better than October for solar?

          • Jan says:

            I don’t know. We clean the snow off the panels so it is not that. Even without sunshine the panels seem to bring more in January than in October. It is something with the sun. Of course it is much less than in summer but from October on it is a disaster.

  25. postkey says:

    From a ‘gold bug’.
    “The collapse of SVB is hitting Silicon Valley startups hard. They generally have far in excess of the $250,000 FDIC guarantee limit. So they may be facing either ruinous losses and/or a protracted delay in getting their funds. Meanwhile, they have to make payroll, pay vendors, and keep operating. If they can’t get their cash out, they face immediate bankruptcy. Roku, the video streaming company, has said it has about half a billion dollars—a quarter of its total cash—in SVB. 
    A 30% Haircut? 
    I have already read about one company offering to buy those deposits at a 30% discount. What a bitter pill! Either risk total loss of, say, $10,000,000 cash in the bank which you rely on to operate and grow your company—or else make the loss definite at $3,000,000 but then you have certainty of $7,000,000 to keep going. 
    Many people talk about “contagion” effects when a bank collapses (the Treasury and Fed officials seem to be denying that there is any systemic risk here). This is one way that it occurs. Those who suffer losses must either cease operations or dramatically reduce them. Layoffs are coming to any startup that has to accept a 30% discount on its cash!”?

    • I don’t think that this article is correct. It was published on March 13; it is now March 16. There was an initial fear that depositors with over $250,000 would not be able to get their money back. Now there is a program that allows SVB to borrow as much as it needs to for a year, with Treasuries valued at face value rather than market value.

  26. moss says:

    Huge moves happening this week under the cover of the SVB et al collapse … tectonic places further shifting away from the hegemon
    Wang Yi concludes peace agreement between Iran and Saudis which seems a pivot in securing a settled Islamic ME
    “This agreement closes eleven years of wars and Western influence.” Thierry Meyssan in his most recent feature analysis.
    “There is certain panache for China to reconcile Muslims among themselves, while the West accuses it of martyring its Muslim minority in Xinjang, going so far as to claim that it imprisons 1.5 million Uighurs. Yet, as President Xi reminded his parliament last week, 150 million tourists have been able to travel freely through the country and see that Islam is a religion like any other and that there is no infrastructure to imprison so many people.”

    and before the ink is dried, it’s Syria and Turkey being called to follow suit by those evil Kremlin peaceniks
    “Analysts say Moscow now wants to bridge the divide between the two countries that see a common “enemy” in Kurdish groups in northern Syria, described as “terrorists” by Ankara and backed by Washington.
    “Erdogan has indicated he could meet with Assad, and their defence ministers met in Moscow in December, in the first such talks since the Syrian war began.
    “Diplomats from Russia, Turkiye, Syria and Iran are due to meet in Moscow this week to pave the way for a foreign ministers’ meeting, according to Turkish media.”

    if only I too could say “nice knowing you, Babe”

  27. postkey says:

    “Why I’m thinking about commercial real estate and not tech
    The question is this: where are the systemic vulnerabilities? I’m actually less concerned about tech, though I think the sector will likely be starved for capital. For a systemic vulnerability to exist, I believe you need assets to be backed by credit, and tech generally doesn’t have this feature. The tech bust in the early 2000 wasn’t nearly as destructive as the residential property bust later that decade. And that’s not just because of the size of the asset class. It’s also because debt created financial distress and contagion in the financial sector. As the saga at one tech company with high debt loads, Twitter, attests, debt creates financial distress that wouldn’t otherwise exist if assets were owned free and clear.

    When rates remain elevated over time – as the Fed says they will going forward – that’s a recipe for asset values remaining under pressure. Discount rates for future cash flow maintain the reduction in the value of cash-generating assets. That creates a gap between the debt incurred and the value of the asset. An owner may decide to file for bankruptcy or simply default and cede the asset to the creditors, who then must mark down the asset on their books.

    This all speaks to pressure on generic corporate real estate because the values have already started to fall and CRE owners have already begun defaulting. Moreover, it would take both a miraculous turnaround in the rate environment and in generic office space occupancy to boost asset values. So CRE is a sector with poor fundamentals that is likely to be challenged in a higher-for-longer rate environment.

    I’ll stick to my sanguine comments about CRE not being an acute crisis in the US. But the SVB collapse gives me pause about whether liquidity concerns could eventually surface somewhere in the space. Because CRE is a big asset class, it also has systemic implications.”?

    • I would expect quite a lot of commercial property prices to be distressed. People are not using office buildings as much. Shopping malls are doing poorly. strip malls with lots of small businesses are not doing well. Churches are not doing well.

      On the other hand, more people cannot afford high priced homes at high interest rates. So builders of new apartment are doing well. I expect that the sales price of apartment complexes would not collapse the way some other prices might.

  28. I AM THE MOB says:

    3 suffer heart attacks on flight to Pakistan.

    “The PIA’s PK-742 flight, which had around 225 passengers on board, made an emergency landing at Karachi Airport on Sunday after three passengers complained of severe chest pain, Pakistan Today said in a report.”



    • ivanislav says:

      sounds like poisoning of some sort. 2 of the people were a married couple.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Seems to be picking up steams… 3 on a single flight is off the charts.

      Received news from friend with pancreatic cancer… looking grim … very high fever — unable to take any chemo — doctor says ‘immune system is not functioning properly’

      Just as Bossche predicted.

    • Student says:

      Mob, sorry, but it is a news from 2019. People have always had heart attacks.
      The problem is rather the recent wave of heart attacks among pilots, which is completely another issue…

    • Rodster says:

      That is just freakin awesome but I know what you’re thinking it was the vax and boosters. NOPE, look elsewhere because those vaccines are 100% safe and effective. In fact no one has yet been harmed or died from the CV1984 vaccines. Norm tells us so.

  29. Marco Bruciati says:

    Hello my friends . When Will be collapse??))

  30. jigisup says:

    Its confirmed that the both the Bradley fighting vehicle and the Abrams tank being sent to Ukraine will be supplied with depleted uranium ammunition.

    The 25mm chain gun on the Bradley has a high rate of fire. It will be dumping depleted Uranium everywhere. Fighting vehicles are typically used in conjunction with infantry to riddle strongholds and they are not conservative in ammunition consumption when doing so. They are brought in and quickly expend several hundred rounds that blows through the enemy’s fortifications with their big gun (by infantry standards) then they retreat until called on again as the they are completely vulnerable to the anti armor weapons common to both infantrys in the conflict. The Bradley armor is poor compared to the BMPs.

    The BMPs work good for this. The Bradley with DU projectiles works better. A lot better. The exact same technique of using these type fighting vehicles to riddle urban strong points that we see in Ukraine was used extensively in Iraq also in cities. The result was DU contamination in urban areas that continued to be lived in by civilians. As the DU projectiles blow through the fortification they create DU particulate matter everywhere. If a T-72 or even a T-90 shows up the DU munitions allow the Bradley a chance against the heavy armor. The Bradley armor is poor compared to the BMPs however, not that either has a chance if struck by a MBT projectile.

    The Abrams despite its logistical and maintenance challenges has probably the best thermal optic of any tank in the world and the use of DU projectiles in it allow it to use that optic at effective ranges that far exceed other tanks. DU projectiles in a tank allow it to defeat other tanks armor with great reliability. Ukraine does not get the DU armor with the Abrams just the DU projectiles so its not quite the T-72 eater it was in Iraq but at least there wont be Ukrainian/Russian children playing in burnt out DU tank hulls just living in DU particulate matter.

    Russia has stated that the use of depleted uranium ammunition in the conflict will be considered “a dirty nuclear bomb” and “first nuclear material use as a weapon”. Silly Russians. Just talking smack as usual.

    Documentation of birth defects and much higher cancer rates in civilian populations who live where depleted uranium munitions were used as well as US military personnel is well documented.

    DU munitions just another one of the fabulous contributions the US state department has made to the Ukrainians it so cherishes. None of this conflict in 2013 Western and Eastern Ukraine living together with a few differences how strange it changed so quickly.

    Thats how it goes with war. One day BAU. The next everything changes and there is no going back. Infrastructure destroyed. Blood spilled. Humans exposed to war.


    • reante says:

      awesome jig thanks. you can really transport the reader. Your treatment of the Russian talking heads is interesting. Kind of refreshing in a way lol. Myself, I take such statements as the one that DU will be considered as dirty nuclear bombs at face value. That’s what they are — miniature ones — and that’s a major escalation.

      Russia vs America is the global analogy of Red vs Blue. Within each color lies separatist internal logics but without each color there are strings attached. The strings are attached to articulated frameworks and then to the fingers above them. The Russian vs America conflict shares the same fractal, but on a larger scale, with the American bifurcation/decoupling.

      Size doesn’t travel well, and collapse is going places. The world needs to downsize. The biggest, outsidest Russian doll comes in two pieces, both painted red, white and blue (Russia and USA in their globalist construction). The halves need to be pulled apart and set aside in order for the smaller doll inside that will travel better.

      I take the sober, realistic statements of Russia at face value because they serve the function of lifting the top half of the biggest doll from the bottom half. The Russian statements are like Shakespearean asides to the Western audience that has ears to hear them.

      • jigisup says:

        “Myself, I take such statements as the one that DU will be considered as dirty nuclear bombs at face value. That’s what they are — miniature ones — and that’s a major escalation. ‘

        Ahh. You have demonstrated yourself sane. I was wondering. The gom jabber never lies.

        So now. Knowing that this is the most thought upon matter possibly of all time. Thousands of individuals being paid large salaries to do analysis. Is this the actions of a organism wanting to avoid a strategic nuclear exchange?

        • reante says:

          I don’t see why you would be wondering whether I was sane or not. Had you not chosen to avoid further interaction with me on two occasions already, subsequent to me challenging your ideas, perhaps I’d have a better idea as to why. 🙂

          Like I said very clearly already, the ‘organism’ encompasses both Russia and USA. But to answer your misframed question, yes, the organization (‘organism’) IS driving towards a strategic nuclear exchange, as I already detailed to you. It’s just a nuclear exchange of far smaller magnitude than what you have incorrectly patterned IMO. And I’ve already explained to you why, and you chose not to respond. So for you to just repeat your analysis as if my rebuttal never occured the other day isn’t constructive behavior.

          If we believe in holding ANY position, that position MUST be defensible. As a clearly military minded man I’m sure you agree with this. Yet you rolled over and folded, in silence, when I challenged your position. Yet here you are acting like you still hold that position. But you don’t because I took it from you.

          Take it back if you can.

          Obviously we’re both divining the future here but that divination still has to be based in reason. I took the assumed reason out of your position.

          Take it back if you can.

  31. Tim Groves says:

    “When something happens like I just described, it should be considered intentional murder and those responsible should be prosecuted.”

    —Sasha Latypova

    Among the revelations:

    —A complete disabling of normal corporate recall of dangerous products following safety flag/signal—after 65 deaths and 3,000 adverse events from a single lot.

    —30% of lots responsible for 60% of deaths

    —Two FDA employees quit abruptly upon being forced by government to obey commands and abandon all normal safety protocols, and two committed suicide.

    Listen to podcast here:


  32. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Update…to the 🌕 MOON
    Nasa reveals new spacesuit for Artemis moon landing
    Outfits for planned lunar expedition more streamlined and flexible than Apollo suits, and a better fit for women

    latest in moon-wear was displayed at the Johnson Space Center in Houston during an event hosted for the media and students by Axiom Space, the Texas-based company contracted by Nasa to build suits for Artemis, successor to the Apollo moon program.

    In this photo provided by NASA the Orion spacecraft for the Artemis I mission splashes down in the Pacific Ocean after a 25.5 day mission to the Moon, Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022. (NASA via AP)
    Nasa’s uncrewed Orion capsule splashes down after ‘historic’ moon mission
    Read more
    The Artemis 1 mission, the inaugural launch of Nasa’s powerful next-generation
    rocket and its newly built Orion spacecraft on an uncrewed test flight around the moon and back, was successfully completed in December

  33. jigisup says:

    Some comments on the recent b-52 flights


  34. Fast Eddy says:

    “When something happens like I just described, it should be considered intentional murder and those responsible should be prosecuted.”

    —Sasha Latypova

    Among the revelations:

    —A complete disabling of normal corporate recall of dangerous products following safety flag/signal—after 65 deaths and 3,000 adverse events from a single lot.

    —30% of lots responsible for 60% of deaths

    —Two FDA employees quit abruptly upon being forced by government to obey commands and abandon all normal safety protocols, and two committed suicide.


    Suicide? Maybe they worked out it was UEP and decided it was too horrible …

  35. Hubbs says:

    Energy/shale/tar sands/LNG/ precious metals/ renewables workshop discussion with scrappy Jason Burack of Wall St for Main Street and Steve St Angelo at srsroccoreport.com

    1st 40 minutes about shale. Then precious metals, then renewables. Too much over my head. Lateral lines reportedly being increased from 1 mile to three miles!

    Apparently, still trying to increase the number of shale wells ( I had reported earlier that these had declined) but reality is the wells are depleting faster than new wells being created needed to maintain production. ( Apparently there has been an increase in number of new wells, but not enough to overcome the decline in shale overall production.)

    New Mexican Permian is still the stronghold for shale. growth. Texas Permian is peaking.
    Alberta Tar sands 6:1 EROEI

    Guyana off shore oil find and the opening of Alaska only offer several months’ world supply. The energy cliff decline will be one of boom and bust cycles on the way to the decline.

    Mild global winter = less consumption of NG and LNG. Storage full in US and Europe already ahead of last year. Reflexive price drop with sudden extra supply during the spring “build” season means turbulent price market.

    Energy cliff “begins” descent 2025 according to Steve St Angelo @1:06:50

    Mentions looming financial disaster Next Era Energy, based in Florida, the largest renewable wind portfolio in US (maybe the world) 1:07:50 “Green energy can NEVER be done economically” @1:09:15

    $20 million just for wiring of the biggest sea floor 15 MW turbines, increased maintenance costs @1:12:10

    A long discussion covering many topics.

  36. Fast Eddy says:

    Credit Suisse to borrow up to $54 billion as it seeks to calm investor fears


    Seems like a lot… I suppose the CBs will be willing to help out … cuz if they don’t…

    CS = Zombie Bank

  37. Fast Eddy says:


    Another one.

    EMIRATES flight WARNING: A plane or two will fall from the sky; ‘The First Officer of Emirates Flight 205 felt unwell an hour and a half after take-off and was forced to return to Malpensa airport’


    Seems to be a lot of unwell pilots this week.

    • JMS says:

      I watched the series twice and didn’t notice this chromatic “anomaly”.
      But of course Ukraine was already an issue in 2013, even though the Euromaidan thing didn’t happen until the following year.
      It’s really hard to believe that it’s just an incredible coincidence. Anyway we already knew that Utopia, although brilliant, smells fishy.

  38. MG says:

    The humans replace the depleted natural.world with a technology based world. Otherwise the world turns into a habitat unsuitable for the humans.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      of course, for most of human history there was not much more than primitive technology: clubs, rocks, spears.

      some parts of the world will always have a habitat suitable for hunter gatherer humans.

      perhaps living in huts near fresh water.

      no big deal when 7.9 billion of us die off and the survivors live almost like animals.

      I’m okay with that future.

      • Dennis L. says:


        With all due respect, I suspect you will not be okay with that future; I don’t think you can imagine how challenging things can be. The computer keyboard is easy compared to providing something of value to someone else so they will share with you.

        I think doing well by one’s children is a way to maybe have some of them help you in the later years.

        Dennis L.

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          ah yes, but I don’t anticipate having to actually experience it.

          those future generations will just have to make the best of their difficult circumstances without my assistance.

          and apparently without any divine assistance either.

          but really, no big deal.

          early humans lived like hunter gatherer animals, so what’s wrong with future humans living the same way?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        No experimenting on animals and industrial farming = ok.

        Spent fuel ponds might have the final say though

    • postkey says:

      “It is this belief in a new digital revolution which gave rise to the much-derided article by Danish politician, Ida Auken – originally titled “Welcome to 2030: I own nothing, I have no privacy, and life has never been better.”  More popularly known as “you’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy.”  It is a world of digital currencies and digital IDs, vaccine passports and 15-minute cities, electrification and driverless cars.  All of it based around the “energy too cheap to meter” from wind turbines and solar panels, and all of it operated by autonomous artificial intelligence within the “singularity” of the “internet of things.”
      It is a mirage, of course… one only visible to so-called “virtuals” – people whose lives and careers are now so detached from the material world that, were there not so many of them, could otherwise be diagnosed as certifiably insane.  The real world, meanwhile, looks more akin to the second global collapse – the first being the collapse of the integrated economies of the Bronze Age Eastern Mediterranean empires sometime around 1186 BCE.  The majority of ordinary people have seen their living standards decline over the past two decades – a process compounded and accelerated by two years of lockdowns followed by a year of self-destructive sanctions on key resources.”?

    • Jan says:

      I doubt the h&g story is right. People were vegetating like foxes in their holes until they imagined the Neolithic revolution and only 6 or 12 thousand years later they could climb up to the heap of humanity driving Corvettes?

      Inuits follow large herds of caribou, birds, fish. Native Americans followed the Bison. Vikings followed the fish. Harvesting abundence, not being primitive. The kayak is all but primitive. Where are these herds now?

      H&g did not stroll over the planet but followed the cycles of their prey. They returned to older camps. It is logical to assume that they planted nuts, blackberries, apples, bullrush, herbs, willows, coppice ready to harvest when they come back. Seeds and roots are easy to transport. The Saami take tame reindeer with them, though they are not really tamed. Opposite to crop they can walk and needn’t be transported.

      Starchy crop can be stored and traded. The Romans build a whole economy on wheat.

      When you run after the game, you cannot defend your tediously accumulated winter storage. It is hard to carry 100kg of wheat on your back while running after a rabbit. When you return to your planted blackberries someone else might have enjoyed them. It is natural to let someone stay behind. People staying behind might just as well care for some rabbits, goats or cows – if you manage to aquire the breed.

      Archeology is based on evidence. The remains only show, when a specific way of live became relevant.

      When BAU fails, people will consume the left storage and wait for their old lives to return. They don’t see any need to become active now, so why should they then? Activity consumes calories. They will believe the government is in charge. The governments will gather people in camps as logistics is more simple and distribute the left overs.

      Eventually people will be too weak to protest or start any action. Perhaps some will start to plant potatoes and herbs around the camps. Seeds are optimized for modern agriculture and difficult to raise without fossiles.

      People will stroll for the leftovers but it is hard to do that without cars. It costs calories.

      Imagine a modern rural settlement with 5000 people and a handfull of farmers. Let’s say 1000 survive the first months. Now 1000 run over 5 farmers and a handfull of preppers, hunt the deer and eat everything they find. Then the leftovers are gone, every mushroom and rabbit eaten and the next year will be even more difficult.

      Where will be the herds to run after to become h&g? The story is not as simple.

  39. eKnock says:

    I got an email yesterday from the farm where I buy meat. The lady said she was suffering from **** ABSURDITY FATIGUE ****. Absurdity fatigue is pretty good.

    It’s sarcasm double plus…….. Absurdity Double Plus.

    Donald Trump is President… how absurd….. OMG what next?

    How about Joe Biden.
    Joe Biden is President…… how absurd…. OMG what next?

    I was hoping to see Alec Baldwin run, doing his Donald Trump act,
    against Donald Trump doing his Donald Trump act.

    That was too scary. Baldwin got cancelled. Oh well.
    Check the chamber when you pick up a gun….pretty basic adult behavior.
    I guess that’s why he could do the Donald so well.

    So lets go Bevis and Butthead for POTUS ’24.
    Butthead giving the State of the Union with Bevis doing his thing up behind him.
    I’ll get a TV for that.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      I’ll go counterintuitive and say that I would like more abbsurdity.

      turn the dial up to 11 in 2023.

      many days are just too dull and routine.

      figuratively light some dynamite at both ends.

      not where I live, though.

    • i think it was socrates who said

      /////the act of putting oneself forward for public office should be grounds for immediate disquailification./////

      Trump was an obvious charlatan, crook and sexual predator, and made no attempt to hide it

      and 70 m people still voted him into office

      so they obviously thought as he did, pretty much.

      That said, leaders do arise with the intention of giving public service, as do doctors, priests, teachers and so on.
      A friend of mine was head of a small village school—(all he ever wanted)–the kids absolutely adored him, and he gave back in return. (no doubt eddy will make much of this, in his self-revealing fashion).
      Its called public service–some people do actually do it.

      Unfortunately id iots pirouette in mindless criticism of everyone who tries to do public work, , for no better reason than to call attention to their own lives of insignificance

      • reante says:

        Tulsi’s campaign motto in 2024 might well be ‘Service Above Self.’

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Nobody voted Trump in – he was anointed as the new puppet… the Buffoon.

        And then he was replaced by a family of pedo grifters… Biden The Fool.

        The whole point of this is to entertain the MOREONS who read CNNBBCHUFF… to get them screeching at one another .. and off the scent of reality and UEP.

        As we can see … Mission Accomplished

        • always good to know the fount of all knowledge is there to slake our thirst for understanding of world affairs eddy

          I suppose this is the first salvo in the usual morning burst of verbal grapeshot?

      • Vern Baker says:

        Not defending anyone or anything but, when the adversary is an even worse charlatan, crook and sexual predator… I guess your choice is down to the lesser of two evils.

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    Could it be chance that FE travelled to Canada for the Farewell Tour … and within days of returning … the Apocalypse Threatens?

    • CTG says:

      You are destined to end in NZ….

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        and soon, maybe in 2023?

        Q2 or Q3?

        • JMS says:

          In the collapse divination game we are playing here since ~2014 you are winning for now, David, thank Fed. But you know perfectly well that you are, like all of us, on the losing side, and I suspect you must also suspect that we will hardly reach 2030 in any state other than that of a skeleton.
          Anyway, BAU tonight is good enough for me. Cheers.

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            sure in the long run we’re all dead etc…

            but 2030?

            on April 30th, I hope to be celebrating that the 2020s will be one-third in the history books.

            do the math, tempus fugit.

            quasi bAU would be nice.

            if not, well then…

            que sera sera.

            cheers indeed.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Ardern stepped down… to spend some quality time (snorting various powders) with her drug pushing partner?

        Before the apocalypse.

    • Ed says:

      Eddy what is the vax requirement to enter NZ? Can I get in with clean blood?

  41. Fast Eddy says:

    Tucker is entertaining https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/69164

    Nice to see Putin continuing to play his role in the fakery

    Suspicious object’ is discovered beneath Nord Stream 2 pipeline by Danish investigators – with Putin claiming it could be an explosive device and pointing the finger at the US


    Dr. Harvey Risch: The Shots Go Everywhere — and the Side Effects Are Astonishing

    • inflammatory issues
    • myocarditis
    • neurological issues
    • clotting
    • menstrual harms

    “This is going to take another 5 to 10 years of study” to discover all the hazards of the vaccines.

    Dr. Harvey Risch (https://t.me/HarveyRischMDPhD) is a well-respected author of more than 400 original peer-reviewed research publications and our Chief Epidemiologist at The Wellness Company (http://t.me/thewellnesscompany).

    Learn how we can help optimize your health and provide immune and healing support from spike proteins.


  42. The only thing those not in the “Know” will wait is this


    The survivors will keep this to their final day. One of them might make a confession to his/her priest when they die, but the secret will die with the priest.

    Wolfgang Petersen grew up in postwar Germany and saw and heard everything, and he didn’t take BS. He also had done a move on Dieter Dengler, a US pilot shot down in Laos during the Vietname War .. Dengler, born in Germany and also growing up during the occupation period, could endure hardship and escaped against the highest odds.

    This scene doomed the 2006 remake of Poseidon Adventure and Petersen was never given another Hollywood job again, but he showed the true nature of situations like this – only the truly chic survives.

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    Pilots and flies … dropping

    Massive heart attack in PILOT Virgin Australia Taken ill Just 30 Minutes After Takeoff, Prompting Emergency Landing; incident occurred on 3rd March resulted in Airbus A320 being forced to return to Adelaide


    I love observing Vaccine Roulette in action – who’s next?

    Who’s on first? How’s Beebsie?

    The Horror The Horror

    But it ain’t nuthin compared to ROF.

    • Student says:

      These problems with pilots is surely an help for Greta to reduce flights.
      ‘Flights are dangerous for your climate and for your heart’
      new slogan for ‘Friday for the future’.

  44. Something most people can’t catch is that the shareholders of Civilization, about 10% of pop in the advanced world and less than 1% of the rest , don’t really need the rest.

    Like Tom and Daisy Buchanan in their final scene, they will take the end of about 95% of the world’s pop as a non-event, since a critical mass of people who will attend to them will still be around, namely their butlers, lawyers, cooks, beauticians, etc which are collectively called ‘entourages’ in modern terms and ‘retainers’ in the olden days.

    Retreat to some towns they own, where the townspeople will defend them to death , and they won’t feel any pain while the rest o the world sinks.

    • I am afraid that these wealth people all need the people to pave the roads, and the people who produce and process the materials that pave the roads. If they expect to have electricity, they need a very large entourage of people to create the whole supply lines that allow the electricity generation and transmission. The rich need the people in the banks, and the computers they use, and the electricity for those computers. All this takes even more workers. Of course, all of these workers need food and transportation to their jobs. If they live in cold climates, the need heat for their homes and clothes to keep them warm. Someone needs to deal with waste removal and fertilization of plants. Someone needs to provide schools for the children of the workers. Healthcare is also needed.

      When you get done, you end up with needing a whole lot of our current economy, I am afraid.

  45. Fast Eddy says:

    As I read through Telegram SS etc… there are endless fakeries… possibly a few truths… it’s an ocean of information … it becomes impossible to know which is which.. even for someone with a 1500HP….

    That’s the PR Team flooding the planet with endless narratives .. ensuring nobody has a clue what reality is… there’s a flavour of fakery for everyone … and that becomes their reality

    For one guy in particularly … Huff is his reality

    • Under Flowerpot says:

      Yes indeed, the PR team can work its magic, it is spooky consequence of Bayes Rule. It is not even magic, it can be defeated too, but ugh, its hard enough to keep after little ones in your own house…

      In probability theory, raw Bayes Rule, it is impossible to perform naive hypothesis tests (which even animals can do), with more than two hypotheses.

      We rely, desperately, on the heads/tails hypothesis ability. But one must work the symbols to discover that the asymptote which exists between going from two hypotheses to three hypotheses is like a permanent division by zero. There is no degradation of performance of the naive heads/tails tests, the method simply vanishes permanently. (Both three card Monty and the Monty Hall problem vex observers because these exploit beliefs about naive hypthesis testing without showing that’s what’s happening.)

      The consequence on confirmation bias is freaky, when one thinks that heads/tails-like testing still works on three or more Confirmation bias is TOTAL and ABSOLUTE. Using Bayes Rule to implement naive hypothesis testing, demonstrates that each datum either is completely associated with at most a single hypothesis (but consequentially) entirely rejected by all other available hypotheses. That is why the science is hard, because we have to perform hypothesis tests using comparisons to randomness.

      But the PR team can drive everyone mad in the meantime, the situation of Bayesian updating requiring a flip in beliefs is also easily modellable under more than two hypotheses. And it is shocking at what it takes to make a Bayesian update extinguish a belief, it is a predictable event on the data stream of naive hypothesis tests.

      This is why I am not a worshipper of AI, there is nothing there but the symbols, same rules, just speed. The problem is the PR team needs total surveillance to hide the fact that AI is just faster at the game which the symbols must play.

      • AI knows how to give a person the woke answers to any questions. I am sure that they will tell us that wind and solar will save the world, as well. It is the same garbage in, garbage out problem as everywhere else. They know the narrative that MSM is programmed to tell.

        • Ed says:

          AI spits back what they are trained on. If it is trained on freedom loving articles it will spit back freedom loving answers.

          • Dennis L. says:

            The trick is to have an AI where the answers match not policy but reality.

            Dennis L.

            • halfvard says:

              But as with any other computer program or mathematical model it comes down to GIGO: Garbage In, Garbage Out.

              It’s entirely related to what sources you give it access to, and those sources are curated by biased humans. And then the selection is chosen by another group of biased humans. The “AI” has no access to an objective reality.

  46. Fast Eddy says:

    hahaha… i wonder if it will grow back if she reverses course? https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/45862


    Doomsday predictions from Al Gore 1992, we had 10 years to save the world.

    Of course Geeta said we had 5 years … in 2018.

    • Student says:

      I see now that Al was a good looking man at that time.
      Then he must have probably eaten too much
      …that is negative for the climate, by the way 🙂

  47. Mirror on the wall says:

    LOL She has some front.

    “CCTV footage showed how Narinder Kaur, also known as Nina Tiara, would simply take items off store shelves and carry them to the till to initiate a return.”


    How did one of Britain’s biggest shoplifters get away with it for so long? Mother who made £500,000 from shops including Boots, TX Maxx and John Lewis had simply taken items off the shelves and asked for refunds

    She repeated the pattern of faking purchases and refunds hundreds of times

    One of Britain’s most prolific ‘industrial’ shoplifters made over £500,000 by tricking stores into handing over refunds for items she never purchased.

    CCTV footage showed how Narinder Kaur, also known as Nina Tiara, would simply take items off store shelves and carry them to the till to initiate a return.

    The 53-year-old, believed to be mother-of-one, repeated the pattern of faking purchases and refunds on hundreds of occasions at various stores across the UK including Boots, TK Maxx, HomeSense, John Lewis and more.

    Kaur, of Wiltshire, had ‘made it her full-time career’ to pinch items from high street shops for four years before she was caught and tried at Gloucester Crown Court.

    Kaur defrauded the various retailers over a thousand times between July 2015 and February 2019, the prosecution has proved.

    She was recorded on CCTV entering stores, removing items from shelves and taking them to the till and pretending she had bought them previously.

    About £150,000 in cash was found hidden in her home, along with stolen goods, when police scoured it for evidence.

    The CPS was able to prove the case using financial data, retail records, witness evidence and CCTV footage.

    An investigation found that Kaur carried out her scheme atBoots stores across the UK – including in Dudley, Smethwick, Droitwich and Kidderminster. She received £60,787.09 in refunds from Boots despite only spending £5,172.73 at its stores.

    The convict was handed £42,853.65 in refunds from Debenhams despite spending only £3,681.33.

    She also defrauded John Lewis, visiting stores in Milton Keynes, Watford, Chester, Cardiff, Chichester, Basingstoke, Nottingham, Newbury, Exeter, Southampton, Reading, Birmingham, Tamworth, and Leicester. The defendant received £33,131.61 in refunds but only spent £5,290.36.

    John Lewis, in comment to MailOnline, explained that its stores have a ‘wide range’ of measures in place to ‘deter and catch’ shoplifters and fraudsters. These practices also aim at protecting partners and customers.

    The court heard how Kaur visited also Monsoon stores – including in Telford and Shrewsbury – and claimed £23,000 more in refunds than in payments made for purchases.

    She went on to target House of Fraser stores, spending £2,853.55 but claiming £23,147.75 in refunds. The Birmingham store was one of a number which she visited.

    Fraudster Kaur defrauded Homesense stores in Stafford, Shrewsbury, Cannock, Solihull and Worcester, among others. There she spent just £1,181.45 but claimed £19,540.17 in refunds.

    TK Maxx was defrauded of £14,563.53, while she cheated Homebase out of £3,238.47, the CPS said.

    She targeted Homebase between August 2015 and February 2019 and defrauded the company of £3,238.47.

    ‘She now rightly faces a significant sentence for her crimes and the prosecution will look to recoup as many of her ill-gotten gains as the law allows.’

    • Now that this woman’s technique has been published to the paper, I expect that others will try it as well.

    • Tim Groves says:

      I thought that in order to claim a refund from a retail store, one was required to produce a receipt for the goods in question as proof of one’s purchase. How did she get around this requirement. Did she have a printer that produced genuine looking receipts, or did she have accomplices inside the stores, or did she have such an honest face that sales clerks were duped into believing she was genuine?

      • ivanislav says:

        It’s unfortunate. She only got 500k. I don’t get it – to get more than 10x that much money, all you need to do is start a company with “AI” in the name and solicit funds and you won’t even be charged with anything when it fails.

      • drb753 says:

        I think you buy a pair, and then use the same receipt to get ten refunds for ten copies of that particular article.

Leave a Reply