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It is now popular to talk about leaving fossil fuels to prevent climate change. Pretty much the same result occurs if we run short of fossil fuels: We lose fossil fuels, but it is because we cannot extract them. Practically no one tells us about the extent to which the current system depends upon fossil fuels, however.
The economy is extraordinarily dependent on fossil fuels. If there are not enough fossil fuels to go around, there is likely to be fighting over what is available. Some countries are likely to get far more than their fair share, while the rest of the world’s population will be left with very little or no fossil fuels.
If losing fossil fuels completely, or nearly completely, is a risk for some of the world’s population, it might be useful to think through some of the things that go wrong. The following are some of my ideas about things that change, mostly for the worse, in a fossil fuel-deprived economy.
[1] Banks, as we know them, will likely fail.
Before banks fail in areas with virtually no fossil fuels, my guess is that we will generally see hyperinflation. Governments will greatly increase the money supply in a vain attempt to get people to believe that more goods and services are being produced. This approach will be used because people equate having more money with the ability to buy more goods and services. Unfortunately, without fossil fuels it will be very difficult to produce very many goods.
More money will simply provide more inflation because it takes physical resources, including the proper types of energy, to operate machinery of all kinds to make goods. Creating services also requires fossil fuel energy, but generally, to a lesser extent than creating goods. For example, the pair of scissors used in cutting hair is made using fossil fuel energy. The person cutting hair needs to be paid; his or her pay needs to be high enough to cover energy-related costs such as buying and cooking food to eat. The shop where hair cutting is operated will also need to pay for the fossil fuel energy required for heat and light, assuming such energy is even available.
Banks will fail because too large a share of debts cannot be repaid with interest. Part of the problem will be that while wages will rise, the prices of goods and services will rise even faster, making goods unaffordable. Another part of the problem is that service economies, such as those of the US and eurozone, will be disproportionately affected by a declining economy. In such an economy, people will get their hair cut less often. Instead, they will spend their money on essentials, including food, water, and cooking supplies. Service-providing businesses, such as hair salons and restaurants, will fail for lack of customers, leading to defaults on their debts.
[2] Today’s governments will fail.
With failing banks, today’s governments will also fail. Partly, they will fail because of attempts to bail out banks. Another problem will be declining tax revenue because fewer goods and services are produced. Pension programs will become increasingly difficult to fund. All these issues will lead to increasingly divisive politics. In some cases, central governments may dissolve, leaving states and other smaller units, such as today’s provinces, to continue on their own.
Intergovernmental organizations, such as the United Nations and NATO, will find their voices becoming less and less heeded before they fail. Getting sufficient funding from member states will become an increasing problem.
Dictatorships ruled by leaders who wield absolute power and aristocracies ruled by leaders with hereditary rights are the types of governments with the least energy requirements. These are likely to become more common without fossil fuels.
[3] Nearly all of today’s businesses will fail.
Fossil fuels are essential for all kinds of businesses. They are used in the extraction of raw materials and in the transportation of goods. We use fossil fuels to pave roads and to build nearly all of today’s buildings. Without fossil fuels, even simple repairs of existing infrastructure become impossible. Without adequate fossil fuels, international companies are especially at risk of breaking into smaller units. They will find it impossible to operate in parts of the world with virtually no fossil fuel supply.
Fossil fuels are even used in making solar panels, wind turbines, and replacement parts for electric vehicles. Talking about solar and wind as “renewables” is to a significant extent misleading. At best, they can be described as fossil fuel “extenders.” They might help a problem of a slightly low fossil fuel supply, but they are far from adequate substitutes.
[4] Grid electricity and the internet will disappear.
Fossil fuels are important for maintaining the electrical transmission system. For example, restoring downed power lines after storms requires fossil fuels. Hooking up solar panels or wind turbines to the electric grid requires fossil fuels. Home solar panel systems may operate until their inverters fail. Once their inverters fail, their usefulness will be greatly degraded. Fossil fuels are needed to manufacture new inverters.
Fossil fuels are also important for maintaining every part of the internet system. Furthermore, without grid electricity, it becomes impossible to use computers to connect to the internet.
[5] International trade will be scaled back greatly.
At this time of year, many of us remember the story of the three kings from the East coming to visit the baby Jesus with precious gifts. We also remember stories in the Bible of Paul traveling to distant countries. From these and many other examples, we know that international trade and travel can continue without fossil fuels.
The problem is that without fossil fuels, some parts of the world will have very little to offer in return for goods made with fossil fuels. Countries with fossil fuels will quickly figure out that government debt from countries without fossil fuels doesn’t really mean much when it comes to paying for goods and services. As a result, trade will be scaled back to match available exports. Exports of goods will likely be very limited for parts of the world operating without fossil fuels.
[6] Agriculture will become much less efficient.
Today’s agriculture has been made unbelievably efficient using large mechanical equipment, generally powered by diesel, together with a huge number of chemicals, including herbicides, insecticides, and fertilizers. In addition, fences and netting made with fossil fuels are used to keep out unwanted animal pests. In some cases, greenhouses are used to provide a controlled climate for plants. Using fossil fuels, specialized hybrid seeds are developed that emphasize characteristics that farmers consider desirable. All these “helps” will tend to disappear.
Without these helps, agriculture will become much less efficient. Figure 1 shows that even with the small cutback in fossil fuel use in 2020, the share of employment provided by agriculture rose.
Employment in agriculture is essential. These workers did not get laid off, even as workers in tourism and workers making fancy clothes lost their jobs, so agricultural jobs as a share of total employment rose.
[7] Future labor needs are likely to be disproportionately in the agricultural sector.
People need to eat. Even if the economy is operating in a very inefficient manner, people will need food. The share of people in agriculture (including hunting and gathering) can be expected to rise considerably.
Some people hope that a shift to the use of permaculture will solve the problem of the dependence of agriculture on fossil fuels. I see permaculture as mostly a fossil-fuel extender, rather than a solution for getting along without fossil fuels, because it assumes the use of many fossil fuel-based devices, such as modern fences and today’s tools. Also, at best, permaculture only partly solves the inefficiency problem because it requires a huge amount of hands-on labor.
Today, there is a wide divide between the share of employment in agriculture in the United States and in the same statistic for the UN group of least developed countries. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa. They use very little fossil fuels.
The US share of employment in agriculture has recently been about 1.7%. In the part of Europe using the Euro, the share of employment in agriculture has recently averaged about 3.0%. In either the US or Europe, it would take a huge change in employment to get to 70% in agricultural employment (as seen early in the 1990s for the UN least developed group), or even to 55% (as experienced recently by the same group).
[8] Home heating will become a luxury item available only to the wealthy.
Without fossil fuels, wood will come into high demand for its heat value. Wood will be needed for cooking food; it is very difficult to subsist on a diet of all raw foods. Wood will also be in demand for making charcoal, which in turn can be used to smelt some metals. With these demands on wood, deforestation is likely to become a major problem in many parts of the world. Wood in general will be quite expensive, given the considerable cost of harvesting and transporting it over long distances without the benefit of fossil fuels.
People living in sparsely populated wooded areas may be able to gather their own wood for home heating. For other people, home heating will likely become a luxury, affordable only by the very rich.
[9] Living alone will become a thing of the past.
Without enough heat, and with barely enough wood for cooking, people (and their animals) will have to huddle together more. Homes housing multiple generations, built over a place for keeping farm animals, may again become popular. It will be more efficient to cook for large groups than for one person at a time. People in cold areas will huddle together with each other in beds to keep warm. Or they will huddle together with their dogs, as in the saying, three dog night, meaning a night that is cold enough to need to have three dogs to keep a person warm.
Even in warm parts of the world, people will live together in groups, simply because maintaining a household for a single person will become impossibly expensive. Food and fuel for cooking will take up a huge share of a family’s income. There will be little left over for other expenses.
[10] Governments and their laws will shrink in importance. Instead, new traditions and new religions will play a greater role in keeping order.
Governments have made dozens of promises, but without a growing supply of fossil fuels (or an adequate substitute), they will not be able to keep them. Pensions will be gone. The ability of governments to enforce ownership laws will likely disappear. Without any good substitute for fossil fuels, mass disorder is a likely outcome.
People crave order. Without order, it is impossible to conduct business. We know from recent experience that “sustainability groups,” put together by people with a common interest in sustainability tend not to work well enough to provide order. They tend to fall apart as soon as obstacles arise.
What has seemed to work to provide order in the past is some combination of traditions and religions. With a changing world, both traditions and religions are likely to need to change. In the book, Communities that Abide, by Dmitry Orlov et al., the authors point out that having a strong (non-elected) leader, and a shared set of religious beliefs, helps keep a group together. In fact, it helps if the group is somewhat persecuted. Fighting for a common cause is part of what keeps the group together.
The Ten Commandments in the Bible are interpreted in a way that strongly suggests that they are rules for behavior within the group, not for behavior in general. For example, “Thou shalt not kill,” applies to other members of the group; wars against other groups were very much expected. In those wars, killing of members of another group was expected. This would seem to allow Israel’s killing of members of Hamas, today. Without enough fossil fuels to go around, fighting becomes more frequent.
Conclusion
In my opinion, the problem the world is facing today is like one that smaller economies have faced, over and over, in the past: The population has become too large for the economy’s resource base, which now includes fossil fuels. Today’s leaders reframe the problem as voluntarily moving away from fossil fuels to prevent climate change in order to make the situation sound less frightening.
As I see the situation, the world needs to scale down its use of fossil fuels because, ultimately, the laws of physics determine selling prices for fossil fuels. We extract the inexpensive-to-produce fossil fuels first. The problem is that fossil fuel selling prices cannot rise arbitrarily high. Prices must be both:
- High enough for producers to make a profit, with funds left over for reinvestment and for adequate taxes for their governments.
- Low enough for consumers to afford to buy food and other consumer goods produced with these fossil fuels.
If we assume that all the fossil fuels that seem to be under the ground can really be extracted, climate change from burning them may indeed be a problem. But it is hard to see that they can really be extracted, given the affordability issue. Politicians will hold down prices to get voters to vote for them if nothing else.
Researchers have been working diligently to find solutions, but to date, their success has been poor. Every supposed solution requires significant use of fossil fuels. So, we need to think through what might happen if we are forced to get along without fossil fuels and without an adequate substitute.
$ 34 trillion and counting….
“So far, Washington has been spending money as if we had unlimited resources,” said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at Loyola Marymount University. “But the bottom line is there is no free lunch,” he said, “and I think the outlook is pretty grim.”
…. Akabas said, “There is growing concern among investors and rating agencies that the trajectory we’re on is unsustainable — when that turns into a more dire situation is anyone’s guess.”
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/u-s-national-debt-hits-record-34-trillion-as-congress-gears-up-for-funding-fight
U.S. national debt hits record $34 trillion as Congress gears up for funding fight
WASHINGTON (AP) — The federal government’s gross national debt has surpassed $34 trillion, a record high that foreshadows the coming political and economic challenges to improve America’s balance sheet in the coming years.
The U.S. Treasury Department issued a report Tuesday logging U.S. finances, which have become a source of tension in a politically divided Washington that could possibly see parts of the government shutdown without an annual budget in place.
…. Foreign buyers of U.S. debt — like China, Japan, South Korea and European nations — have already cut down on their holdings of Treasury notes.
A Peterson Foundation analysis states that foreign holdings of U.S. debt peaked at 49 percent in 2011, but dropped to 30 percent by the end of 2022.
“Looking ahead, debt will continue to skyrocket as the Treasury expects to borrow nearly $1 trillion more by the end of March,” said Peterson Foundation CEO Michael Peterson. “Adding trillion after trillion in debt, year after year, should be a flashing red warning sign to any policymaker who cares about the future of our country.
I am having problems with WordPress. Hopefully this will not delay getting a new post up much, but we will see.
WordPress “thinks” that I am not properly logged into the site. I am trying to get this issue fixed.
I just now published a post at a site which I call “Our Finite World II” which is located at gailtverberg@substack.com. I sent copies of this post to about 100 people via email. Quite a few recent OurFiniteWorld.com commenters were included.
I will try to publish on both sites, if I can get the problem fixed.
Look for a new post at https://gailtverberg.substack.com/p/2024-too-many-things-going-wrong
I will repost the article on OurFiniteWorld.com, if I can get my half-way login issues fixed.
SADS airline cluster
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/gods-of-chaos-thursday-january-4
This British colonel must be high if he thinks that UK is any match for the Russian military. Plenty of details of the moribund state of the British military and the UK military industrial base made it into the UK press last year.
UK has like 40 tanks and it could not raise a single formation of 40,000 troops to engage in NATO operations. The army is the smallest that it has been since the days of Napoleon. And UK has no ground-to-air defence.
The idea is obviously to drag USA into a direct conflict with Russia in Europe. But USA has already shown that it does not have military industrial base to sustain attrition war against Russia.
USA soldiers on the field are not going to change that overall equation. The best bet is for NATO to de-escalate with Russia but perhaps UK feels that it has done too much against Russia for Russia to turn a blind eye to that in the long run.
This is a machine translation from a Greek article.
https://warnews247.gr/vretanos-syntagmatarchis-i-krisimi-apofasi-gia-tin-oukrania-tha-parthei-to-2024-to-nato-tha-steilei-episima-stratevmata/
British colonel: “NATO will send troops to Ukraine if the country collapses – within 2024 the crucial decision”
“The only way to send NATO forces if Ukraine collapses”!
British colonel: “NATO will send troops to Ukraine if the country collapses – within 2024 the crucial decision”
The crucial decision on Ukraine will be made in 2024, said a British colonel who believes that if the Russian Armed Forces make serious progress and Ukraine collapses, the North Atlantic Alliance will be forced to send troops.
This means a Russia-NATO war in the coming years.
The British seem to be aligning themselves with the Germans. We remind you that German analysts, the Minister of Defense of Germany, Boris Pistorius, and the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, revealed in the Bundestag that Europe must be rearmed immediately in a short period of time as war with Russia approaches.
And this is because after Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic countries and now Finland are the next fields of NATO-Russia military confrontations.
Read also: War council in Germany: State of emergency and Europe’s preparation for war with Russia – Statements by Solz and Pistorius (vid)
“NATO will send troops to Ukraine”
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a retired colonel of the British army, sees this scenario as very likely and will depend on what decision is made regarding the course of the conflict.
This view was expressed by the British chemical weapons expert and former commander of the British ABC weapons regiment in an interview on Talk TV.
“The West has already done everything for Kiev’s troops, from aid to humanitarian aid to the supply of weapons – so the last step left is to send in its own troops.
So far this has been avoided, but if Russia makes serious progress in the Ukraine war, it cannot be ruled out that NATO members – mainly the US and Great Britain – as well as other Western allies such as Australia will have to reconsider the position them” he said.
Specifically, when asked specifically whether the collective West would send its own troops to fight alongside Kiev in 2024, de Bretton-Gordon replied:
“It is not beyond the realm of possibility that if serious progress is made on the front by Russia, NATO and Western allies such as Australia will have to reconsider their stance.”
The colonel says that any move depends on NATO countries’ assessment of the magnitude of the threat to them from Russia after its victory in Ukraine:
“This could really mean the possibility of British and other forces fighting in Ukraine.”
The West can avoid this necessity by expanding the supply of military equipment, especially ammunition, he stressed!
However, if these end, the West will have to make a decision: Peace with Russia or formal involvement of NATO in Ukraine and Eastern Europe in general?
The movement of the British and the blockade of the Turks are not accidental
In this light, Britain’s recent attempt to send two minesweepers to the Black Sea to reinforce Ukraine cannot be considered a coincidence.
These are the Sandown-class minesweepers HMS Grimsby and HMS Shoreham, which have been renamed Chernihiv and Cherkasy (from the regions of the same name in Ukraine).
The British move resulted in Turkey closing the Straits, barring two minesweepers donated by Britain to the Ukrainian Navy from entering the Black Sea. Ankara made use of its right as it derives from the Treaty of Montreux.
The creation of a “naval coalition” recently announced by Britain aims to prepare the ground for the deployment of a NATO Fleet in the Black Sea. His mission will coincide with a simultaneous increase in NATO’s naval presence in the Baltic.
Today the British Colonel confirmed to us….
Also read: Turkey fires NATO plan: Closes Straits to two British warships – Blocks their entry into the Black Sea
I would be surprised if NATO sends troops to Ukraine. I suppose it would be an excuse to spend more money and issue more debt, but it isn’t clear that the military would have sufficient armaments to do much.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8hZryPAc20
Doomberg talks to Adam Taggart about how there is plenty of oil, and how technology is making it more efficient to deliver to the market. Doomberg says we are in an situation of abundance when it comes to oil.
Doomberg caters to those who still want to believe that there is hope.
I’ll bet that Doomberg says that oil price will rise, and this will allow more oil to be extracted. Or, even if he doesn’t say this, this is what he is thinking.
This is worth a listen to minute 25 at least. He talks about how new forms of oil are being created from light hydrocarbons which can then be converted into the energy profile we need.
NGLs are oil…. in Doomberg’s view.
some NGLs are burned such as propane.
a large portion such as ethane is used to make plastics.
US produces about 5 mbpd of NGLs, but we use lots of plastic don’t we?
that 5 mbpd is SEPARATE from the 13.2 mbpd of black goo crude which the US produces.
add 6+ mbpd of heavy Canadian oil, which is great stuff since it doesn’t even need to be drilled.
then Doomberg is right about abundance if he is talking about the NA region.
to be clear, US crude 13.2 mbpd plus NGLs 5 mbpd plus Canada 6+ mbpd =
that’s about 25 mbpd of “all liquids”.
amazingly abundant, for right now.
The issue is the cost (energy cost and complexity) required to make this transformation. I should listen to this, I agree.
NGLs now are mostly bottled gas, which is not of very high value.
I suspect that Doomberg has been paid by the PR Team to say these things.
PR doesn’t matter much here.
NA is producing 25 mbpd of liquid hydrocarbons.
one billion gallons per day.
I like big numbers. 😎
it’s the last day.
if it wasn’t for Chucky, all sci-fi would come true.
cancer rates are up.
SCHAD!!
oil $ is down, but then up.
proof we’re in a simulation.
AI will bring us to a Type 1 Civ, but not til next Tuesday.
I hear there are asteroids up there with lots of metals.
let’s build a giant net and catch one.
bAU in The Core tonight.
oh look another celeb dropped dead today.
SCHAD!!
I Am The Universe.
the earth is a teeny tiny bit hotter, with MOAR severe storms, except when there isn’t, more fires then less fires etc etc.
the simulacrum is all retch and no vomit.
change is slooooooow except when it’s not.
go figure.
😁
I agree with this.
Without Chucky, Belle Epoque continues, Henry Oswald Moseley receives the Nobel Prize, Ramanujan is found with his head smashed (leading to the end of students from Asia entering the West to study), and there is no exploitation of resources in countries and regions which should not have touched them to begin with.
Here’s a tribute to Fast Eddy, sung by the Shangri-Las, cheesy Lucy Mirror type girls who fantasised about hard men. But listen to what happens to the Leader. Maybe afterwards his heart was anonymously donated to some young woman, who was alarmed to find that she’d begun having night dreams of motorbikes and violent incidents.
The Shangri-Las. Leader Of The Pack.
“The song is about a girl named Betty, asked by friends to confirm if she is dating the leader of a motorcycle gang, Jimmy. After singing of love at first sight, her heart turns to despair as she argues against her parents’ disapproval of him. They claim Jimmy is from “the wrong side of town” and ask Betty to tell him goodbye and fall in love with someone new. Betty does as she is asked, and Jimmy speeds off on his motorcycle. Moments later, he crashes on a rain-slickened surface and dies.”
Jimmy possibly would have been a good provider of abundant resources for Betty.
depending on how much he could monetize his gang activities.
since he was the “leader”, the bigger portion of the gang resources should have been flowing to him.
and yet Jimmy had his ironically soft heart broken, and in his emotional upheaval, he acted rashly.
Darwin Award to Jimmy yes?
afterwards, what kind of life did Betty have?
(Splash – marittime news)
“Military action against land-based targets in Yemen moves a step closer.
A coalition is moving closer to taking military action against land-based targets in Yemen after more than 20 merchant ships have been targeted in recent weeks in the waters of the southern Red Sea. […] Yesterday, the governments of the United States, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United Kingdom, called for the immediate end of these attacks.”
https://splash247.com/military-action-against-land-based-targets-in-yemen-moves-a-step-closer/
Yemen is an incredibly poor, overpopulated country. The rich countries must be depending too much on complexity, if they can be outsmarted by a relatively small number of people from Yemen, working with limited weapons.
Perhaps US weapons are not made to work, they are to make profits.
The F16 and F15 were Pentagon projects run by what was called the fighter mafia; they were real pilots and had as a goal two planes that did their job. That they did and continue to do so.
Dennis L.
The US military couldn’t defeat the Afghans with their high tech weapons.
I think we could have, perhaps it is not the goal.
Dennis L.
The occupied and pacified the parts of the country that were for whatever reasons necessary … just like they have never totally defeated Iraq… yet they ring fenced the oil wells and they pump the oil…
What is the point in defeating the Ghannies.. or the Iraqis … or anyone… why fight an endless war against guerrilla soldiers? What’s the point?
The traffic thru the Red Sea is totally diverted .
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1742522415836475775/photo/1
Sorry, but that post doesn’t seem much reliable to me.
If you look to vesselfinder it is more reliable, it is one of most used professional instrument of the sector.
There is a decrease, but red sea is still used.
https://www.vesselfinder.com/it
The problem now is more about a possible attack by the western coalition to Yemen and also a possible presence of China in the red sea, which would be very interesting…
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-01-04/China-calls-on-all-parties-to-act-responsibly-for-Red-Sea-safety-1q66z8bl7pe/p.html
Lots of things to go wrong.
Italy has no skin in this game so they might allow Italian ships to go thru.
Looks like a diagram from a grade 3 class.
Fake
If the HOOTIES were able to shut down that sea lane… every country in the world would be raining hell down on them..
Yet nothing … the US .. China.. Russia .. NATO… powerless to stop this — they don’t even try …. gimme a f789ing break
Hahaha … they are playing with you
(Trasporto Europa)
“Polish road haulage protests against Ukrainian hauliers have flared up again.
Despite rumours that the protest on the Polish-Ukrainian border had been suspended, the reopening of the border crossings proved to be temporary, and Polish hauliers once again blocked traffic on the border with Ukraine. The reason for the latest blockade was, according to Polish media, the Ukrainians’ failure to comply with the agreements underlying the truce concluded over Christmas.”
https://www.trasportoeuropa.it/notizie/autotrasporto/si-riaccende-la-protesta-dellautotrasporto-polacco/
This protests have been going on since some months by now, but they are unreported on EU mainstream because Europeans are not allowed to know that Polish workers don’t want Ukranian workers to steal their jobs…
Hurray for Von der Leyen !
Ukrainians are very poor. Evidently, they will work for very low wages. The rest of Europe cannot deal with this kind of wage competition. These low wage workers cannot afford enough goods and services to keep the system going.
As mentioned previously, they made very good GPS/RTK electronics for farming. Prior to being ruined as a country they were incredible farmers. Placing TX inside the borders of Ukraine will give an idea of the scale of farming.
Current leaders are more actors delivering a script than running a country. Actors like babes and blow, enough said.
Dennis L.
The below does a reasonable job encapsulating the growing divide in capital and technology between haves and have-nots. Outcome depends on resources, as we know. Still interesting though:
“Modernity in a Nutshell”:
Two revolutions:
(1) Techno-economic self-propelling change obsolesces ever wider swathes of humanity on a steepening curve. Capital (i.e. techno-commercial synthesis) tendentially autonomizes. For humans, there are ever more intriguing opportunities for synergistic attachment, on new terms, but the trend is — to put it very mildly — ‘challenging’.
(2) Jacobin political violence, modeled on the French Revolution, provides the basis for demands aimed at a redistribution of the (capitalist) productive spoils through explicit extortion. All socio-political history in the modern epoch falls into compliance with this pattern. It coincides quite exactly with ‘democracy’ in its modernist usage. Universal Basic Income is its natural telos.
To the extent that there has been an equilibrium between these twin processes, it is coming apart. All the pol[itical]-economic innovations of recent years, on the Left and Right, are indicators of this accelerating disintegration.
So the options are these:
Both (1) and (2) is the Status Quo (delusion).
Neither (1) or (2) is Reaction (also delusion).
(1) against (2) is the Neo-Modern Right.
(2) against (1) is the Neo-Modern Left.
Those are the only slots available.
Fernandez concludes:
The technological revolution is going to pose increasingly serious challenges to nearly every Western social democratic society. People are either going to be really angry when they discover there’s no patronage or angrier still when they discover they have to provide the “basic income” for everybody else. Only one thing is relatively certain: the solution to these problems won’t be found in the ideologies of the early 20th century.
Source:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160408235954/http://www.xenosystems.net/modernity-in-a-nutshell/
Root website appears reborn here:
https://xenogothic.com/archive/
The technological revolution is going to pose increasingly serious challenges to nearly every Western social democratic society.
There is no technological revolution.
Shiny screens fool the vast majority though.
With,
I am in it, there is incredible progress and it is filtering down very rapidly, e.g. AI. This stuff is tough, requires ability to hold much in one’s head. I am old, only way I can do it is take much more time and literally sleep on the pages and have them go into my head. If you never could do that, you are sunk. You have to be visual.
Look at Space X, 200 return landings(last year, or total, not going to research that), incredible, routine now.
Pure physics seems stuck, applied physics is going light speed and it is easier because much of it is codified in digital and just works. Tougher to invent Newton’s laws than apply them with a computer program which is no longer written on punch cards.
Dennis L.
AI does not exist. Rockets are nothing new.
I cited this article at least twice at this forum.
(1) was feasible in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was very likely to become the president. She would have denied rights for most people who were most likely to oppose the transition, and unlike the current clowns in the Democratic Party, she would have been efficient and ruthless.
Every resources to the top, nothing for the rest, was the only way to bring (1) which is now infeasible.
We are dealing with the maximum power principle. It dictates that the system is constantly moving toward more complexity, but that the system requires both adequate wages for workers and a not excessive return for those organizing the complexity. This is why we get the conflicts mentioned.
The self-organizing system started at the origin of the Universe. It looks to me as if there has to be a Force which causes these system to continue to unfold and grow.
A corollary to the Force starting this system is that ultimately, the same Force would seem to be involved in the system reaching its ultimate complexity and disbanding (or moving to an entirely new state).
I think of Eric Chaisson and his charts, showing how complexity seems to have grown as long as the Universe has been in existence.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/13-chaisson-trend-is-toward-more-complex-energy-intense-form.png
Image similar to ones shown in Eric Chaisson’s 2001 book, Cosmic Evolution: The Rise of Complexity in Nature.
without exception—every upward curve has one going down
Norm:
Hmm, a rocket at escape velocity does not go down, Voyager is still going up, sort of, it escaped not only earth but the solar system. That is enough of a counter example which in math is sufficient to disprove the hypothesis.
Dennis L.
The rocket is still in the Universe, however. It cannot go indefinitely.
dennis
if/when voyager comes within the gravity pull of something else—the curve will go down.
this is so obvious i feel embarrassed having to point it out
A final snip – There is no safety net, just a noose.
‘As of March 31, 2023, the consolidated Total Shareholder’s Equity
was a tad over $3.5 billion (that’s with a “b”).
Now realize that this is the entire capitalization underpinning the
Central Security Depository and CCPs (Central Clearing Parties) for the entire U.S. securities market and derivatives complex.’….
-If the secured creditor has “control” over the financial asset
it will have priority over entitlement holders . . .
-If the securities intermediary is a clearing corporation, the
claims of its creditors have priority over the claims of entitlement holders.
…….
So, there we have it. In the collapse of the clearing subsidiaries
of DTCC, it is the secured creditors who will take the assets of the
entitlement holders. This is where it is going. It is designed to happen
suddenly, and on a vast scale.’
‘…..The CCPs are designed to fail. They are deliberately under-capitalized. The start-up of a new CCP is planned and pre-funded. This construct assures that the secured creditors will take all collateral upon which they will have perfected legal control. The
rule of law must prevail! We would have chaos otherwise! No one is
above the law, after all!
1933(?) Roosevelt aids bank theft;
‘People with money in banks that were not allowed to reopen lost all
of it. Their debts were not canceled, however; these were taken over
by the banks selected by the Federal Reserve System. If these people
could not make their debt payments—which was now likely, since they
had lost their cash—they lost everything they had financed with any
amount of debt, e.g., their house, their car, and their business.’
‘Was it successful? We are led to believe that the Bank Holiday was a
brilliant scheme. Well it was—for some. It was enormously successful
for those banking interests who took the assets and consolidated their
power. It certainly demonstrated the power of “regime-shifting policies.”
We will see that it was not just about taking peoples homes and other
stuff. As to ending the panic, perhaps that is not so difficult to do when
you have fomented the panic.
Please give a historical example of each.
“‘Was it successful? We are led to believe that the Bank Holiday was a
brilliant scheme. Well it was—for some. It was enormously successful
for those ban”
Dennis L.
No matter where you look, the funds that are set up to handle insolvencies are set up to handle only occasional small insolvencies. The FDIC, guaranteeing banks, is set up in this way. The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation is set up this way. States insurance insolvency funds are set up this way.
The world ecosystem operates on what I think of as a “cash” basis, rather than on an “accrual” system. We get whatever rainfall occurs, each year. This rainfall helps grow food, this year. We eat nearly all of the food in the year it is grown, with a tiny accrual amount (held in granaries around the world). Oil, coal and natural gas have only relatively small amounts set aside for future use, relative to the amount used each year.
There is nothing governments can do, except “print” more money (offer more promises) if there is a shortfall. In theory, they can assess the solvent institutions to pay for the problems of the insolvent institutions.
If the underlying problem is inadequate inexpensive to produce resources, the printed money cannot solve the resource problem. The printed money can only lead to inflation if it is allocated to everyone. If the printed money goes primarily to the already rich, it likely leads to capital goods price inflation.
If new oil discoveries fall to 0 — which is effectively where we are… and we pump the reserves as fast as possible (which we have been doing with conventional for a long time – a friend who was a partner in a global engineering firm that had contracts in the oil patch in the US told me 10+ years ago that all of their projects were accelerated around the turn of the century — there was a mad dash to complete… same looks to be happening with shale now)….
How long can BAU hold together — at what point does the machine starve?
maybe 2030s but probably 2040s.
Madonna using a bar to hold onto. Yikes!
https://twitter.com/OliLondonTV/status/1742727038849429832
Should have a warning on that link; uggggh I can’t unsee *&%(%$^
Madonna licks water out of dog bowl, continues to share eerie videos
https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/madonna-licks-water-dog-bowl-share-eerie-videos
norm is turned on … Super Snatch is angry …
She sure has gone downhill since the Rat Juice… she should be put out of her disgraceful misery
If life got to the point where THAT … is the best I could hope for in terms of a score… I’d put myself down… UGGG
the revealing power of words eddy
using just one word—score— confirms what i already know.
if you knew anything at all about that which you obsess constantly about
you would be aware that ”score” is a juvenile (regardless of age) concept,—just thinking in that sense degrades you.—and much much more importantly, degrades the person you are ‘scoring’ with—which explains of course why you never ‘score’ with anyone, and why you are obsessed with faking.
little wonder then, that you feel compelled to regale ofw with your shortcomings.
constant assertions of your scoring ability simply confirms your inability.
worth a sad laugh—nothing more.
This is what those who never scored … would say.
NOFs don’t score. NOFs pay
they would
but not as well as i said it
so keep thinking up your scores eddy, one day you might reach single digits—oops, you do use digits, don’t you?
whats happen to old tommy lately—has he dumped you?—having to reach for diapers again i see.—maybe his scores a higher.—but only slightly.—-the self obsessed set great score by scoring.
desperation rears its ugly head
keep on keeping score though—just love that word, and what it told me—just a single word—-score—, ive never scored in my life, never thought of ‘scoring’, the concept doesnt enter my head.—just as 4 number cusswords never enter my head.
i make better use of the English language in that context.
score—-thanks, i needed that.
That is f789ing insane – I feel Mass D watching … my stomach has turned… I am having to swallow vomit… even better than this
https://youtu.be/W8yzOYMhQhA
Hey norm … you should audition for back up dancer… in your diaper panties…
The bar likely prevents falls.
I may be becoming the beacon of light and hope on this site.
“So, Beam me up Scotty!”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/scientists-have-successfully-accomplished-the-first-ever-quantum-teleportation-of-images/ar-AA1mra3G?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=1499033e9d7a446293de37fdfd7c651a&ei=15
The universe allows us to discover it as we are able. If this is correct and the trend is your friend, automobiles will be so yesterday, teleportation coming soon. Mix solar, hydrogen storage, fuel cells and teleportation. Man, that will blow the doomers’ minds.
Teleportation to an asteroid, rich in PT, back to earth and only less than light speed. New meaning to JIT manufacturing. Rockets within the solar system become so yesterday. And, drum roll, teleport pollutants, old tires to Jupiter, burp!
This is a joke, so lighten up, but we don’t know what we don’t know. Not all news is bad. Or is it a joke? Look at the original communicators on Startrek, they flip open, flip phone? This was in the late 1960’s, now so yesterday although I liked flip phones.
We are biology, greatest achievement of the universe and relative to the age of the universe, we hardly have a timeline. Give us a few billion years.
Dennis L.
You might just be a bacon of light. I hear that people who believe in space mining and electrical vehicles taste better, just like my cows taste better due to their low stress life in woods and pastures. It is good to know for the coming era.
More like a beacon of denial. A refusal to believe that everything is over. A lot of people in post-communist countries denied the end of communism after things got so bad – they pretended to live as if nothing had changed.
Your ideas get more bizarre everyday as things get tougher.
There are greater achievements in the universe somewhere else which humanity is too stupid to know for now. But then denial and arrogance are quite closely related.
kul,
Biology is biology, things are getting tougher and when the going gets tough, the tough get going.
Dennis L.
“when the going gets tough, the weird turn pro.”
— Hunter S. Thompson
Quantum teleportation of images is at least tangential proof of simulation but at most spooky anachronistic legerdemain.
looks like somebodys had their hand in the letterbag of science-scrabble
I am afraid not for those living in the world, today, however. Perhaps for our descendants who make it through the current bottleneck, however.
Been re reading ‘The Great Taking’.
We have had;
Dematerialisation; no claim on securities held only in book form eg bank accounts, shares, gold etc (ie not under your pillow)
Security entitlement pooled (ie individual ownership title removed)
Harmonisation; enable easy cross border theft of assets
Collateral Management; Derivatives are ‘un-tethered from
physical reality . . . but can be used to take real things as collateral’.
‘Inevitably following the “Everything Bubble” will be the “Everything
Crash.” Once prices of essentially everything crash and all financial
firms rapidly become insolvent, these collateral management systems will automatically sweep all collateral to the Central Clearing Counterparties (CCPs) and Central Banks.
The trap, into which all nations have been herded, is ready and waiting to be sprung.
There will be an epic end point to the decades of seemingly out of-control financialization, which served no beneficial purpose for
humanity, but the devastating effects of which are apparent even now.
It has been a deliberate strategy executed over decades. This was
the purpose of inflating the global bubble entirely out of proportion
with any real world thing or activity, which must end in disaster for so
many, with no pockets of resilience allowed to remain in any country.’
I wonder if Putin is the fly in the ointment preventing the ‘You own Nothing’ event.
Its been a long game; more recently….
‘I decided I could not go on after George Bush, instead of being
repudiated, was re-elected. I did not think that possible. This is how
much I had changed: In desperation I had voted for John Kerry. I went
on to work as a “Team Captain” for the Obama campaign. But there
was no change coming with “Change you Can Believe in” Obama, whose
cabinet oddly came to conform to the candidate list of Citigroup. After
that, I stopped voting.
In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis it eventually became
known that tens of trillions in losses in derivative positions were housed
in the biggest banks, which were then bailed out with newly created
money. The prime brokers would have failed, but to prevent that they
were made banks and also received direct injections of created money
from the Fed. No one was prosecuted. On the contrary, the perpetrators
were rewarded with enormous bonuses. It was almost as if it had all
gone according to plan.’
It is a plan – they had to do what they did otherwise exploding energy production costs would have collapsed BAU…
I was also an Obama fan … he was useful in showing me that the Elders do exist and that they run the show … that was a game changer.
But there
was no change coming with “Change you Can Believe in” Obama
Of course not. Presidents can’t put anthracite coal back in the mines or high quality oil back in oil wells.
The strange way things work is amazing. It is in some ways parallel to the strange way things worked during covid and its absurd “vaccines.” It is as if some outside force is somehow allowing things to go on, which could not otherwise go on. There wasn’t any one person pulling the strings behind the Great Financial Crisis, but somehow things worked together to keep the system going for quite a long time.
I wonder if Putin is the fly in the ointment preventing the ‘You own Nothing’ event.
The government is not going to look after everyone and provide food and housing. It is going to shrink and then vanish completely and then the killing starts.
There will be an epic end point to the decades of seemingly out of-control financialization, which served no beneficial purpose for
humanity
But it did serve a beneficial purpose. How else do you think we in Europe, the US and other US allies can import so much stuff?
Last,
We really all own nothing, it passes through our hands for a while and if lucky we are able to make use of it, knowledge, stuff, etc.
Control, self determination may be a myth, which of course is invented by man.
Dennis L.
British Airways tragedy as steward, 52, dies in front of passengers on plane due to take off from Heathrow for Hong Kong
The 52-year-old steward fell to the floor as holidaymakers were preparing to fly from London Heathrow to Hong Kong on New Year’s Eve, it has been reported.
In a desperate effort, the jet’s captain urgently called out over the Tannoy for any medically-trained passengers to help, with one flyer qualified in first aid assisting.
Shocked holidaymakers watched on in horror as first aid was given to the stricken crew member, who had keeled over in the rear galley of BA Flight 32.
However, despite the efforts of passengers, police and paramedics – who arrived later – the steward could not be saved, reports The Sun, with the flight later cancelled due to the ‘medical emergency’.
The tragedy reportedly came just days after a second BA steward, also aged 52, died in America on December 23.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12922453/british-airways-steward-death-heathrow-hong-kong-passengers.html
Hahaha… if I was a trained medic and was on the flight … I’d sit back and watch (and enjoy haha)
Why would I help a Vaxxer? Why would I risk him shedding his filth and toxic spike on me?
Elon’s satellite coverage:
>> “This will allow for mobile phone connectivity anywhere on Earth.”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1742396904619581642
Great … nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. Net-centric warfare and killer drones, world-wide.
Frm X; ‘The six@Starlink satellites on this mission with Direct to Cell capability will further global connectivity and help to eliminate dead zones…’
Create dead zones more like
How many drones do you think the US can produce a year compared to China?
Dennis L’s God is more interested upon seizing temporal powers and looking good to the Elders than going to the Space.
Evolution might stop humans from solving climate change, researchers say
“Human evolution is mostly driven by cultural change, which is faster than genetic evolution. That greater speed of adaptation has made it possible for humans to colonize all habitable land worldwide,” says Waring, associate professor with the UMaine Senator George J. Mitchell Center for Sustainability Solutions and the School of Economics.
Moreover, this process accelerates because of a positive feedback process: as groups get larger, they accumulate adaptive cultural traits more rapidly, which provides more resources and enables faster growth.
“For the last 100,000 years, this has been good news for our species as a whole.” Waring says, “but this expansion has depended on large amounts of available resources and space.”
Today, humans have also run out of space. We have reached the physical limits of the biosphere and laid claim to most of the resources it has to offer. Our expansion also is catching up with us. Our cultural adaptations, particularly the industrial use of fossil fuels, have created dangerous global environmental problems that jeopardize our safety and access to future resources.
https://phys.org/news/2024-01-evolution-humans-climate.html
Evolution in humans has been pushed along by human’s ability to control fire. Ever since this was accomplished (over 1 million years ago), there has been a tendency for human population to rise, hit bottlenecks, and fall again. We seems to be hitting another bottleneck again.
Cultural change is driven by energy supply, I would think.
Meanwhile BAU is stonking along where I live; have to visit town early to avoid the prosperous plebs.
The SUV’s are bigger and blacker.
The window tints are darker.
The EV’s are more numerous.
The parking spaces are fewer.
The coffee shops are packed.
The young ladies clothes are skimpier.
The young guys are covered in tattoo’s.
The hay is being cut and the countryside is as green as can be.
Fuel prices are dipping and the sun is shining.
Have to be inside in middle of day to avoid too much sun
Try talking about Ukie/Gaza/Covid/Red Sea/Multi-Trillion dollar debts etc and you will get the blank stare associated with MSM poodle.
Its a reminder that this corner of the blogosphere is not going to change the masses anytime soon.
truth!!
I am afraid you are correct.
The young ladies clothes are skimpier.
The more obese they get … the skimpier the clothing they wear… cuz they think morbid obesity is hot and should be flaunted…. if you are going to be a plough hog at least have the decency and cover up — and please — stay off the pole … cuz that will shatter your delusions very quickly as the boo birds come out and the rotten tomatoes fly.
Tomorrow is the last day.
Some people say AI has already exceeded humanity.
It is now better than at least 75% of humanity.
If it reaches its breakthrough, it will be too little, too late.
Owen Jones discusses Israel’s open genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza. He argues that we have to make public knowledge of the genocide as widespread as possible as the western states and media are silent and indeed complicit in the genocide. South Africa has compiled a dossier of the openly expressed genocidal intentions of Israel and its open war crimes against the Palestinians. Genocide in our day.
> How Israel Could Be STOPPED By South Africa – Its Overwhelming Genocide Case Explained
About the mass extermination of Palestinians now taking place in Gaza. Western government continue to aid and arm Israel. I am not sure that there is anything we can do about this. Practically every politician is pro-Israel.
Just like they are all Pro Rat Juice.
They do … what they are told
Like mindless zombies… all they care about is getting paid… like almost all the doctors and nurses who are getting paid to commit mass murder… and more than happy to oblige
Humans… hahahahahahahahaahahaha I much prefer Hoolio
For Russia, China, India, allowing the genocide to continue hurts their enemy so they benefit.
…make Public knowledge…..?
Meh; the harms of the dog shite injections are public knowledge.
Joe and Jane public are as thick as a Peruvian mudslide.
They are buried under debt, feeding on sugar, watching moron TV and pumped full of prescription anti-reality pills.
The band plays on.
The ship of state sinks.
There are no lifeboats.
I really do not understand why anyone would be upset with the Gaza situation … exterminating humans is a good thing…
Kow – maybe you could provide more specifics?
The Israelis are only copying the Russians’ treatment of the Ukrainians by torturing prisoners and kidnapping children. They have learnt by example. But it all helps with the ongoing depopulation project. When there’s less to go around, wars come along to help the economy self-organise a bit more.
And every cloud has a silver lining. I expect Hamas carried out the initial attack with this end in mind: the Gazans may be allowed to relocate to the beautiful spacious Congo. It’s reminiscent of A.H’s plan to see the Jooze to Madagascar in the 1940s. Probably Netanyu and Hamas planned this all along and just needed a brief war as an excuse to move the project along.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Gazans could be sent to Congo when Israel war ends.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/03/israel-talks-with-congo-gaza-voluntary-migration
EXTRACTS.
Gazans could be relocated to Congo at the end of Israel’s war against Hamas under a “voluntary migration scheme”.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is reportedly conducting secret talks in which he is seeking to have Congo and other nations accept thousands of immigrants.
“Congo will be willing to take in migrants, and we’re in talks with others,” a senior source in the security cabinet told news site Zman Israel.
The news report said that Gazan “migration” was becoming the leading policy of the government as a solution to the conflict.
The Telegraph?!!
Really, a link to the poster child of bullshite!
Couldn’t pay me enough to click on that link.
And there are others such as Martin Armstrong who has offices around the world, including in Russia and Ukraine that says the opposite is true. His employees relay to him what is actually happening on both sides and he confirms it with his sources. It’s the Ukrainians who are torturing Russian prisoners.
Here’s a video of a newly Ukrainian recruit. He has down syndrome and was given no weapons. True, fake? I can’t say but Ukraine is known to the world to be one of the most corrupt governments in eastern Europe.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/great-reset/biden-says-us-troops-will-fight-russian-if-ukraine-loses/
“Ukraine is known to the world to be one of the most corrupt governments in eastern Europe.”
And Russia isn’t? You’re a veritable minefield of information, Rodster.
“Couldn’t pay me enough to click on that link.”
You’re far from important enough for me to want to.
I prefer relocating Israeli Zionists to Arizona.
Stopped??? hahahaha… ok let’s have Geldof organize a KOOMbaya concert for the Pallies.. that will end this as it ended world hunger and poverty… hahahaha
How bout we just sit back and enjoy the show? It’s what humans do…
We do it to animals every single minute in the abattoirs…
Why schadenfreude
Survival bias:
The perception of observing others die on mass while you or your group are unaffected, (particularly if the suffering group are seen as outsiders, undesirable, competitors or a threat, but equally applies to others perceived as self-assured, attractive, superior or who are ruling the class) leads to the assumption more resources, opportunities and space will manifest in the near future as a result and negative perceptions of fatalism and ill-will to ward such groups become increasingly justified and expressed, leading to passive non-action, apathy or unmasked honest base human expression of….
schadenfreude.
or Schad-ons
However this is temporary low level attainment/ aspiration that leads to personal suffering, because..
This un/fortunately is not the end of the process
When individuals are gratified expressing such schadenfreude like emotions
The Universe can not help but causes that suffering to manifests these experiences in those individuals lives expressing the schadenfreude
This is very bad in Israel’s case, directly murdering others on mass but then again it is written the Soward will not depart out of your house..
To put it a simpler way to put it
This gets the attention of the Hell realms,
which then start following you
And FEed On You.
This is why Christ warned about hating others or even thinking to murder another, He expressed even calling another a fool places one in danger of hellfire. Time to put away such basic emotions and being ruled by them.
Rather His teachings were to develop compassion so this will lead the Universe to inevitably manifest compassion for you and invoke such emotion in others when you suffer. This is the correct way, but fir most it is just so cool to sin, me included.
The Antarctic Expedition That Showed Lockdowns Would Never Work
And Never Will
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/the-antarctic-expedition-that-showed
Men locked down in Antartica caught colds, seventeen weeks after last contact with the outside.
A commenter to the post says that the Military had a similar experience with isolated men who got sick, anyhow.
Lockdowns don’t seem to work with viruses.
“Lockdowns don’t seem to work with viruses.”
No they don’t and neither does wearing masks, something health officials discovered during the Spanish Flu.
It has been claimed that dust from passing comets can bring new diseases. The Spanish flu spread around the world in two weeks, long before mass tourism and regular worldwide transportation.
Flu comes from outer space, claim scientists
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2000/jan/19/spaceexploration.medicineandhealth
Try to explain that to a TFI hahaha
One of them told me last year that masks do work — my father is a doctor and he said so….
Was that Tony Fauci’s son?
A continuation of Belle Epoque, with ZERO participation (and sharing) from the bottom 90% of the advanced world and 100% of the colonies, would have had the best chance for some humans to become spacefaring and reach the next dimension.
Failing that, a continuation of the status quo of 1970s , even at that late point, might have been significantly preferable to what we have now in terms of civilization.
Only the privileged class having good things, the not so privileged class in the more advanced country eating the crumbs and the people in colonies=Third World gettng nothing, zero, nada would have led Civilization to the next step.
Too much resources were wasted to bring the standard of living of the NPCs higher and that is what will end the advance of civilization, as of now.
If UEP takes place, leaving only 100m of the world’s top, then maybe Dennis’ starships will have a chance.
“US national debt hits record $34 trillion
“Rising government debt burdens in the United States and elsewhere have become a growing cause for concern because of a recent rapid rise in interest rates, which has made it much more expensive to service that debt. Net interest costs soared 39% in fiscal year 2023, which ended September 30, compared to the previous year, according to the Treasury Department. And it’s nearly double what it was in fiscal year 2020.”
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/03/economy/us-national-debt-34-trillion/index.html
Isn’t this heading to something analogous to liver failure — out-of-control collapse?
Speculative futures in the time of debt, Lisa Adkins
‘….the logic and operations of debt turn on a specific ordering of time, namely, a promise to pay at a time which has not yet arrived. Second, the context of mass indebtedness has been assumed to have closed down
the possibilities and potentialities of time for the indebted, indeed to have cancelled the sensation of living with time.’
Debt no longer matters cos we have ‘Closed down the possibility of any future…..’
“Isn’t this heading to something analogous to liver failure — out-of-control collapse?”
yes it’s heading that way, but slooooooow-mo.
$50T by 2030 ish.
$100T or more is possible before Collapse.
I don’t think I’ll live to see it, but man it would be dam “exciting”.
‘I don’t think I’ll live to see it, but man it would be dam “exciting”
Don’t rule that out unless you’re not planning to be around in another month, year or decade.
The only thing that might keep the system operating is the moneyness quality of US debt. Somehow, people seem to believe that the US dollar will always be able to buy goods and services.
No problemo… when you owe the world 34 trillion … the world will keep subscribing your debt cuz otherwise guess what happen… and you just use the new debt to pay the interest…
We have here a perpetual financial motion machine!!!!
I see problems arising when the big suck on oil reserves … cannot suck enough to support the primitive apes big burn… and that will both starve the machine and drive inflation into a frenzy…..
That will cause the perpetual motion machine to lose its mind…. and the gears and pistons will smoke and seize up … and the machine will explode in ten billion trillion parts…
But before that happens… the Elders will release The Pathogen.
They most definitely are aware of the… situation … and no way they allow 8B vicious savage wicked humans … to run riot before going extinct
They will act… they are acting … they prepared the 8B by injecting as many as possible with the Death Shot Rat Juice… all we need now is to add The Pathogen to the mix.
Tally ho!!!
How exciting is this???? The anticipation can curdle milk
We are currently adding around $600 billion per month in debt which comes out to around $7.2T in debt per year. That comes out to be an additional $43.2T in debt.
So by 2030 the US national debt could be $77.2 trillion and that’s the big “IF” because the US government has an insatiable appetite for debt. You can’t bribe the public or Nations if you are not spending money like a drunken sailor.
Keep in mind that with each US President the debt has risen exponentially. This is something Chris Martenson has covered at length on his website. It was bad under Clinton, it got much worse under George Bush, Obama took it to another level. Trump piled on as much or more debt than Obama and Joe Bidet has outdone them all.
So the $77.2T US national debt in 2030 mike look rather optimistic.
Have you factored in the interest — that will be paid with more debt…
+ due to inflation the annual debt will need to be expanding even faster just to keep pace…
We seem to be in an Albert Bartlett situation … it’s all going exponential rather quickly… the stadium is filling up rapidly hahahahaha … the dam is gonna burst!!!!
Release The Pathogen!!! Let the dying begin!!! (it feels good to say that… TFIs are not gonna know what hit them … but we’ll know … cuz FE tipped ya’ll off!!! The TFI Vaxxer MOREONS will be bewildered… why are we all dying like this – why are we so sick??? We demand More Boosters… improved Rat Juice… to be safe.. for effective .. for long life…. please more suh… may we…)
I’ve waited a long time for this … it will be like taking a scythe to a field of wheat… slashing the MOREONS down by the billions hahaha…. stooopid f789s…
Primitive low intelligence du.nces….. most of them still think we’ve been to the moon and that India has a rover up there… + they shoot Rat Juice…
We lose ZERO by exterminating humans
Yeah good point because I forgot about the interest which according to estimates is currently around $1T a year, perhaps more.
Lastcall says:
January 2, 2024 at 9:23 pm
Nothing new here; the book ‘Grapes of Wrath’ has a passage where doctors were told not to list cause of death as starvation for any deaths, children in particular. They duly lied on the death certificates.
Kulm the Status Quo answers
That is Civilization.
Doctors make a lot of money and they are not going to tear off their meal ticket.
The deaths of poor indigent is a non event.
The book emphasizes the importance of eliminating the weak link. The young daughter, Ruthie, snitches on Tom Joad (who had a criminal record and if arrested he would certainly face death), because she was a Woke, and Tom now had to run for his life (his ultimate fate is unknown but he can never contact the family ever again).
If the family silenced Ruthie , who might become a snitch, before none of the events below would have occurred.
After the departure of Tom, the older daughter Sharon of Rose, whose husband/lover/whatever had left her, gives birth to a dead child. Soon after a near-dying father and son show up in the Joads’ shack.
If Tom were around they would have been chased out, but since he was no longer there they are allowed in. The dying father is breastfed by The Rose of Sharon.
The book ends there. Most people think this is an act of love. In reality it brought death to all Joad family.
A year before the book was published, the author Thomas Wolfe
https://youtu.be/J9WOsmj9DFY?si=4AZKfpp7Jydp6FJL
died of capillary tuberculosis, because he shared a bottle with a bum.
He was an author’s author so while well known back then he is not well known now, but every famous American author , including Steinbeck, knew Wolfe and how he died, something most leaders of the book do not know since they don’t know who Wolfe was.
The father probably had a bunch of diseases, including tuberculosis, which is now transmitted to the Rose of Sharon and the rest of family, who would perish within a year without anyone noticing, making Tom, if he can avoid capture, the only survivor of the family.
Which is why people were VERY MEAN and had NO MERCY WHATSOEVER for the unfortunate in the old days. The unfortunate were dangerous for their health.
Kulm is a very heartless, strict person who only cares about the survival of civilization and which is why Kulm says these things which most people are afraid to utter.
I am afraid the ‘elite’ were too busy queueing for the Lolita express and are now ordering takeout instead (even the Obummer cook got roasted) to achieve much. History shows they keep losing their grip on power except when it comes to the underage.
The elite have proven to be ephemeral and largely a non-event, and indeed it would appear that when they are periodically swept aside that progress progresses.
Slow learners or merely serially incompetent?
I would agree that any chance of the Great Silly-visation is diminishing at pace.
Considering that Israel was making a genocide with almost no repercussions, taking the decision to blow up a building in Lebanon and a cemetery in Iran it doesn’t seem to me a good idea.
I think that US and Israel will have haters for long time in Middle East.
It is a good move to have Arabs and Persians allied.
https://ronahi.tv/archives/250386
https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/02012024
This is the endgame. They don’t care anymore.\
\
It is do or diie.
He shoots first wins and gets everything. He who hesitated gets killed and eaten.
Period
War now or war later is always the choice. With US going down and China and Russia going up, the US needs war now.
Hamas was wise to bring the fight to a field that advantages them. Israel going up and Hamas going down. Fight now.
We live in a strange world now. We don’t know to what extent the US was behind these other actions by Israel. The US must know that it is in no position to enter into war with a large number of Arab countries. It has used up too much of its weapons.
Crude is up 3.5%+ on the day at the moment
https://oilprice.com/
Buh bye Petro Dollar
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/01/03/the-petro-dollar-is-history/
Most people do not seem to understand the significance of the end of PetroDollar.
End of Petrodollar = USA cannot buy oil on the cheap = No more US debts = Everyone, except maybe some people living on the top of Himalayas, dies.
Nukes will fly before that happens.
Right, which includes all of the entitlement and welfare programs. Historians will look back one day and marvel at the self destruction of a once mighty and powerful empire while its enemies will spit on its carcass.
What historians? I clearly said “and Nukes will Fly”
Every city bigger than 10k population will be nuked, just for the heck of it
I don’t think there are enough nukes for that, but point taken.
I sincerely hope that in addition to The Pathogen… the plan allows for the launch of every nuclear missile on the planet… Pathogen kills 6B vaxxers… then you hit the 2B with the nukes… that should wipe out most of them … the rest starve … if any happen to survive The Spent Fuel Ponds and cancer get them…
It’s a good plan. It definitely reduces the suffering dramatically. Not perfect but exterminating 8B is not easy
I plan on surviving. Hoolio can come live with us. Dina and Toby will be happy to have a new friend.
You’d end up eating him… either that or you all die of cancer.
I prefer Hoolio not suffer
They will be safe under the umbrella that protects the largest Jewish city on the planet, NYC.
Nukes will fly, has been the thought for decades. I’m hedging my bets on future historians writing about our civilizations stupidities.
Great way to go!!! I hereby submit my coordinates:
LOCATION
Queenstown
LATITUDE
-45.03023000
LONGITUDE
168.66271000
I can provide my exact location if necessary – I don’t mind hosting the epicentre….
HUH?!
What about Hoolio?
Need to evac hooli b4 you get vapourised; send him to Fiordland.
We live as a team… we die as a team…. just a brief flash of light and poof — up in smoke we go … he won’t even know… bring it on!!!
Historians will look back one day and marvel at the self destruction of a once mighty and powerful empire
The USA began its decline because it deindustralised due to using up its high grade coal, not because it was too nice to poor people.
Hopefully China has worked out and developed some way (maybe satelite observation systems that are linked to its hypersonic launchers?) to intercept and maybe explode (if de-activation is not possible) any nukes before they leave USA territory and damage the world any more than is necessary.
If so then it would be an instant ‘karma’.
Maybe time will tell, if USA is willing to push it that far.
Subs exist. We won’t know who is even sending them when the war kicks off. Once it starts, everyone nukes everyone. Game theory.
The Russian Posiedons….
“Everyone, except maybe some people living on the top of Himalayas, dies.”
There aren’t any. Only yetis live there.
Yetis are the future for hominins……
and Northern Sasquatch.
Lloyd Pye – Everything You Know Is Wrong – Sasquatch / AI Upscaled
We saw an article or two about this yesterday. It seems like it will take a while to implement. So the petro dollar may not be history, in the near term. The group does include what appears to be a significant share of the world’s oil producers, so, over the longer term, it may be able to have significant control over oil sales.
The Elders would not allow this … they still run the world… you f789 with the Jesus and the Jesus can use the financial system to dump you back into the stone age…
Remember when Berlusconi threatened a referendum on the financial bailout? Remember what happened to him? He was replaced by a dictator from Goldman Sachs….
You mess with the Elders.. the DOD will kick your teeth in.
When the time comes and the empire fails… BAU collapses… it’s a no win situation for all involved
‘Nothing’ Left In UK’s Military Stockpiles After Arming Ukraine: Times Of London
In part of a continuing trend of major Western publications belatedly admitting that all is not well with Ukraine policy and the state the war, The Times of London reported Sunday that the UK has “nothing” left it its own military stockpiles after being among Ukraine’s biggest weapons suppliers for nearly two years of conflict.
British defense officials and European leaders are now busy “cranking through the gears” to ramp up weapons production, the report says, citing an unnamed staffer from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s office.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nothing-left-uks-military-stockpiles-after-arming-ukraine-times-london
hahahahahaha oh ya … and 380k are dead… f789 off
From the original Times article this weekend.
USA and EU have cut their aid to UKR and only UK remains as a major active instigator of war in Europe. But UK has nothing left to send to UKR as its materiel supplies are basically gone after two years of sending stuff to UKR.
UKR has no strategy, no materiel and no serious trained manpower to continue the USA/ UK proxy war against Russia for much longer. Most Ukrainians want a truce and a negotiated settlement but they are terrorised into silence by the military junta in UKR.
I warned that this would happen. UKR/ NATO was never going to be able to compete with Russia in attrition warfare as they simply lack the military industrial base. As a result USA/ UK/ NATO have majorly disarmed and weakened themselves in the attempt.
Now UK is panicking – they were warned but no, so cope with it….
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-ukraine-war-weapons-europe-trump-2024-2fv5ddgk9
…. On the other side, many Ukrainians are growing tired and weary of the war. One Ukrainian military source admitted that average Ukrainians were talking of a truce yet there were questions around what the price of the truce would be.
Earlier in December the EU failed to agree a critical €50 billion financial aid package to Ukraine after Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, vetoed the proposal. In the US, Republicans have blocked plans by President Biden to give Ukraine another $60 billion, using the issue to demand new immigration legislation.
The [UKR] military source said that Ukrainians were “feeling themselves abandoned looking on political disputes in the EU and the USA”. “Fortunately the UK is the only one who is staying with us firmly,” the source said, although the UK has not yet announced its funding for Ukraine this year.
The source added that the UK’s weapons stockpiles are so diminished that the UK had “nothing” left and it was better for them to lobby the Germans. They did however point out that the UK was critical in persuading other countries to give the Ukraine arms and acting as a third party in facilitating those deliveries.
Mykhailo Chaplyha, a political commentator and former vice-ombudsman of Ukraine, said he believed most people in Ukraine wanted a truce but were “afraid to admit it to themselves”.
He said there was an atmosphere of “total mistrust and fear” in Ukraine and that anyone who dared to think of a truce would immediately become an “outcast and a traitor”. One Ukrainian former official said that President Zelensky was losing support in Ukraine and that although the West was saying Ukraine should not give up, there was no war strategy and men and women were being “sent to the front line to die”.
“It is nonsense to send in our soldiers to die if we don’t have enough armament and resources to win militarily. What is the strategy, to keep us dying for what? And not less important — where is our diplomacy?” he said.
Perhaps the hope is that the world will just forget about the Russia-Ukraine situation, if they are busy worrying about the Israel-Hamas situation.
If there are no weapons left to help the coke addict… why has Russia not obliterated the UKEYS (although we are told they have killed 380k … hahahaha not)
Whats your take on this site; warnews247-gr?
https://warnews247-gr.translate.goog/?_x_tr_sl=el&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
UKEY Fake War
You are saying, “No one has armaments to waste on this war,”?
There are plenty of weapons available to supply a major war. I don’t see any indication that the arms manufacturers are laying people off… or any collapse of share prices….
That would indicate BAU.
I see no reason why there would not be plenty of weapons and ammo being manufactured… if resources were not available then we’d be seeing empty shelves in the shops… empty car showrooms etc… weapons would be given priority over butter so their production would continue until something snapped…
I do not understand where this theory comes from that the US etc are unable to produce arms…. yet North Korea can…
Also – can anyone explain what the goal is with ‘the war’ in UKEY…. there does not appear to be a goal…
If Russia is intent on winning ‘the war’ why do they not use their superior military to bomb Kiev to rubble? Is it a war or not? Generally when you fight a war you fight to win… and that means bombardment …
Where is the rubble – on either side?
This is a fake war … just enough to give the appearance and get some photos … + some CGI and some recycled images and clips from other wars.
It is most definitely — NOT what bbccnn are telling us.
We know bbccnn lies… all the time …
They said ” The Permian is an infinite resource ” 🙂
https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/forum-stuff/a-near-infinite-resource?origin=notification
This is the only real story right now as soon as this starts its decline and people actually notice it….look out. Maybe the U.s can people distracted with the diaper wars of Biden and Trump….
I suppose the hope is that technology will improve enough that parts of the Permian which do not appear economic enough to extract now, will later be economic to extract. The Permian won’t really be permanent, but it will last a lot longer than Mike Shellman, Robert Rapier, Art Burman, and other oil field commenters believe.
I think that there may be a little truth to this hope–more than that solar panels and EVs will save us.
However all conventional reserves continue to deplete with many of them well past peak… so how long can shale make up the difference
Yet another mysterious death. This time it’s a relatively young and otherwise healthy military man who suddenly and unexpectedly drops dead.
Lt. Col. Jered Little, identified as the “commander of Public Health Activity-Hawaii,” who was widely promoted to boost COVID Vaccine adoption in the military. Regrettably, he died suddenly on November 30, attributed to either a heart attack or stroke.
Arlington, VA mourns the sudden loss of one of its own, Army Lieutenant and Officer Jered Little, who passed away unexpectedly on Thursday, November 30, 2023, at the age of 39. The exact cause of his death has not been disclosed, but it is believed that he suffered a heart attack or a stroke.
December 18, 2023 – Staff Sgt. Zachary L. Melton, 30, was found dead in his car after he failed to report to work.
December 9, 2023 – Staff Sgt. Allen M. Burtram, 34, was also found dead after failing to report to work.
No foul play is suspected in both incidents, investigation is ongoing.
Remember the vaccine was mandated to the military.
973% Increase in Heart Failure
The vaccine is killing our military.
https://drpanda.substack.com/p/poster-boy-for-us-military-covid
I’d like to know what happens in norm’s brain when he reads this stuff… does norm have a brain? Or maybe norm has a parrot brain – he can’t actually think … he can eat and breathe and walk … and repeat what bbccnnhuff tells him…
But he has not ability to reason… logic is foreign
Remember, it’s all just a coincidence. 🤓
Fast Eddy, at the risk of bringing the wrath of your 1000 IQ points on me, I want to ask a question: why do you torture yourself like this?
It’s obvious that most people are not rational – they are soulless, spineless NPCs that cannot think. So trying to convince them (or even mock them) is a fool’s errand.
On the contrary, I think you should celebrate the fact that the pedophile psychopaths that lead us have decided to terminate them with prejudice.
Think about it: they could have just sicced all the NPCs on us and kill us all. If you remember, the Germans (nazis as always) were very close to this, with “gas the unvaxxed” sprayed on some walls and the govt threatening to stop us from normal life.
Why don’t you do something worthwhile. For example, is there a way to find which people are NPCs and which are not? I am not even sure of myself.
And what to expect next (there is a next pandemic exercise for 2025 from John Hopkins).
Hoping you are not an NPC,
In a word… SCHAD…
Incredible ! It is same story as the Israeli child who made the Advertising for vax and died.
Is it possible to OD on SCHAD?
This is what FE means
An erection of the penis aroused by extreme enjoyment of schadenfreude.
Noun: Schad-on.
Plural Noun: Schad-ons.
I just saw a cyclist fall over at the traffic lights, it gave me a massive schad-on.
new vocabulary!
No problemo. We have plenty of military-age male illegal aliens to fill our ranks! Just give ’em a gun, 3 hots and a cot, and they’ll do whatever they’re instructed.
The dark face of degrowth . Don’t cry for me Argentina . Prof Ugo Bardi ,
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/the-dark-face-of-degrowth-argentines?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=26quge&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
So, the way to keep the system alive and not too nasty is to feed it with cheap energy, and that means we have to grow the production of renewable energy. It is unlikely that it can avoid decline, but it can make it less steep and less unhappy.
hahahahahahaha… talk about pulling the levers and making things worse…
What a TFI!!!! He also mentions GW as being a real thing….
Argentina is a very interesting case. It seems that the Latin temperament is unsuited to stable, predictable and effective government.
Argentina is a rich country but a large percentage of its people live in poverty. Critically they have one of the most important resources of all; attractive women.
In the early 90s, while in Buenos Aires, I got into a discussion with a local doctor about the junta. He said at university during the junta’s era you had to be careful whom you spoke to in campus. Speak to the wrong person and you could just disappear overnight. Living with this kind of terror was very psychologically damaging.
The Latin temperament is similar to that of teenage children. Waves of anger and joy alternating in the blink of an eye.
Energy constraints aside I do not believe these people have the temperaments to fix their country.
” It seems that the Latin temperament is unsuited to stable, predictable and effective government.”
All I can say is you are a f-ing racist. South America had the bad luck to be neighbors to the psychopathic US empire so they never had the chance to even try democracy.
I know that all the evils the US perpetrated on others will come back home this century. So don’t be surprised in a couple of decades brazilians saying: “the yankees are just not suited to a good govt, they just like their slave markets for pedophiles”
You are probably too stupid to understand but think how would your life be as an orphan being tortured by the big bully. That is life for most south americans.
A perfect example of the child-like anger if a Latin.
But also a true argument. Argentina specifically has been stopped from industrializing in many instances, a little bit like Israel does with Gaza.
Could be a good place to retire – if one is paid in another currency… ideally USD
Touche.
However I live in a country with a ‘stable, predictable and effective government.’
Mr Liver should be proud to be ungovernable; it shows spirit!
Sad NZ has been waving flags for the Monarchy (serfs), is part of 5 eyes (slaves) and votes with the UN every time it is told to (morons).
True — it is difficult to get ahead when you have your friend America… pillaging your resources… loading you up on debt and sucking you dry….
degrowth will come at different times to different peoples at different rates and in different ways.
a hundred years from now, those who are left will see it as one
Before reading anything from Bardi, please check his archives. He was sucking WEF dick (and guest posting some of their people) for many years.
Not to mention that most of what he post is provably false, from Roman history (he is blinded by his fake pratriotism) to renewables or future of tech.
As for Argentina, this is another WEF project, just like Italy. US was getting desperate having countries in South American joining the BRICS – since 1900 US has claimed both Americas as its colonies.
I’m not a fan of Ugo Bardi, but in my view some of your considerations are not correct.
I can just talk about his passion for Ancient Romans, being Italian and loving history.
I can tell you that if you make confusion between passion for Roman history and patriotism for Italy as a Country, you will hear all Italians laughing so loudly and for so long that you will hear them wherever you live in the planet.
It is like saying that current people in Egypt are patriots because they study Ramses II
😀
Ancient Romans are a good example of collapse to study about, independently by the country in which one lives.
It is ancient history and it belongs to everyone.
And actually Ugo Bardi is reliable when he talks about the Romans.
he also believes in AGW… he is a TFI.
Or perhaps he was invited into The Club … so he does whatever they tell him to do?
I will agree that Ugo Bardi doesn’t get everything right, but there are some things he says that are insightful and helpful. A person has to read what he says closely to figure out what is helpful.