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Historical data show that, to date, a reduction in energy availability has mostly affected the US, European countries, Japan, and other advanced economies. I expect this situation to continue as energy limits become more of a problem. Advanced economies will start looking and acting more like today’s less-advanced economies. The world economy will face a bumpy path in a generally downward direction.
In this post, I give an overview of our current predicament. All economies are subject to the laws of physics. We are biologically adapted to needing some cooked foods in our diets. We have also moved away from the equatorial regions, so many of us need heat to keep warm. With a world population of 8 billion, we are a long way from meeting all our energy needs with renewable sources alone.
The world’s fossil fuel supplies are depleting, but politicians cannot tell us the true nature of our predicament. Instead, we are told a “sour grapes” narrative: “We need to move away from fossil fuels to prevent climate change.” What this narrative, in fact, seems to do is shift an ever-greater share of fossil fuels that are available to less-advanced economies. It may also spread out the use of fossil fuels over a somewhat longer period. But there is no evidence that this narrative actually reduces the overall quantity of carbon dioxide emissions. Instead, the more advanced economies are likely to be hit sooner, and harder, than the less advanced economies by the problem of energy limits, pushing them on a bumpy road downward.
[1] Economies tend to collapse because populations rise faster than the resources (particularly energy resources) required to support those populations.
We are dealing with an age-old problem: Humans are able to outsmart other animals, and for this reason, human populations tend to rise except when external conditions are quite adverse.
The necessary steps needed for humans to outsmart other animals began about one million years ago, when pre-humans first learned to control fire. With the controlled use of fire, humans could
- Cook food to make it easier to chew and digest.
- Kill pathogens by cooking food or boiling water.
- Scare away wild animals.
- Keep warm in colder climates.
- Eat a more varied diet, with more protein. Primates eat mostly plants; humans are omnivores.
- Spend less time chewing food and more time working on crafts.
- Indirectly, the shape of the human body could change. Teeth, jaws, and guts became smaller; brains became larger.
After 1800, when fossil fuel consumption began to grow, human population started to rise at an unprecedented rate. With coal, it was easier to make metal tools, including cooking utensils, in reasonable abundance. While it is possible to smelt some metals using charcoal (made by partially burning hardwood, then cutting off the air flow), doing so tends to lead to deforestation if more than a small quantity of metal is made.
Figure 1 indicates that population had started rising well before 1800. Thomas Malthus wrote about the difficulty of increasing food supply as rapidly as population in 1798. The problem of rising population exceeding resources is an age-old problem.
[2] The physics reason for the limited lifespan of economies is not understood by many people.
In many ways, economies are like humans and hurricanes. In physics terms, all three are dissipative structures. They need to “dissipate” energy of the right kinds to remain “alive.” All dissipative structures are temporary in nature. No dissipative structure, including an economy, can stay away from a cold, dead state permanently. Usually, dissipative structures are replaced by slightly different dissipative structures. This process allows long-term adaptation to changing conditions.
Dissipative structures are self-organizing. They seem to act on their own. Our human leaders may believe they are completely in charge, but this is not really the case. The economy seems to choose its own course, just as humans and hurricanes do.
The energy products that humans require are food products, some of which need to be cooked. The energy products that economies require are of many kinds, including solar energy to grow crops, human energy to tend the crops, and many types of fuels including firewood, coal, oil, and natural gas. Electricity is a carrier of energy produced by other means. Much modern equipment uses electricity, but trying to transition to an all-electric economy is fraught with peril.
In today’s world, energy products of many types act to leverage human labor. As far as I can see, growing fossil fuel consumption is the primary reason why human productivity grows.
Oil is especially important in farming and transportation. Coal and natural gas are important in steel and concrete manufacturing, and in providing heat for many processes. Years ago, oil was burned for electricity, but today coal and natural gas are the fuels typically burned to provide electricity. Fossil fuels are also important for their chemical properties in many different goods, including in plastics, fabrics, drugs, herbicides, and pesticides.
Using renewable energy, alone, sounds like a good idea, but it is not possible in practice. Forests were the major source of energy to support the economy before the advent for fossil fuels, but deforestation became a problem long before 1800. The world’s population, even at one billion, was too high to sustain using biologically renewable sources alone.
At a population of around 8 billion today, there is no way that wood, and products derived from wood, can support the energy needs of today’s population. Doing so would be like humans trying to live on a 250 calorie a day diet instead of a 2000 calorie per day diet.
What are referred to as modern renewables (hydroelectric power and electricity from wind turbines and solar panels) are really extensions of the fossil fuel system. These devices can only be made and repaired using fossil fuels. In addition, today’s electrical transmission system is only possible because of fossil fuels.
[3] Advanced Economies tend to be “advanced” because of the large amounts of fossil fuels they use to leverage the labor of their citizens.
In my analysis, I use the term “Advanced Economies” to mean countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). “Other than Advanced Economies” are then equivalent to non-OECD countries. I use this terminology because it better describes the reason why these two groupings have such different indications. Also, it is not intuitive that such a difference underlies these two groupings.
My analysis shows that energy consumption per capita is much higher in Advanced Economies than in Other than Advanced Economies, for all three energy charts shown: oil (Figure 2), all other kinds of energy grouped together (including renewables) (Figure 3), and electricity (Figure 4).
It is clear from these charts that the general trend in energy consumption per capita in recent years is down in Advanced Economies, while the general trend in energy consumption per capita is up for Other than Advanced Economies. To me, this means that the self-organizing economic system favors Other than Advanced Economies in the bidding for scarce energy resources.
One interpretation might be that Advanced Economies are using energy products in a wasteful way, compared to Other than Advanced Economies. The self-organizing world economy in some sense tries to maintain itself, even if some less efficient parts need to be squeezed down or out.
The narrative we hear from politicians and others is that Advanced Economies are moving away from fossil fuels to prevent climate change. This seems to be the narrative the self-organizing economy provides to people who live in Advanced Economies. I will discuss how this occurs, and its lack of success in reducing overall carbon emissions, in Section [5] of this post.
[4] Figures 2, 3, and 4 (above) reflect the impacts of several events leading to a squeezing down of energy consumption per capita.
The following are some events that indirectly squeezed back the energy consumption growth of Advanced Economies:
- Oil prices spiked in 1973-1974, leading to recession, indirectly in response to US first hitting oil limits in 1970.
- Severe recession, in response to Paul Volker’s increase in interest rates in the 1977 to 1980 timeframe.
- China was added to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001, allowing it to ramp up its manufacturing using coal. This primarily represented an increase in energy consumption by Other than Advanced Economies. At the same time, it removed a great deal of manufacturing from Advanced Economies, so their energy consumption should have been reduced.
- The Great Recession of 2007-2009.
- The 2020 pandemic and its response.
A person can see the impacts that these changes have had on per capita oil consumption (Figure 2), energy other than oil consumption (Figure 3), and electricity consumption (Figure 4), by looking for these dates in the charts, and noticing what changes in trends took place.
Figure 2 shows that there were very large cutbacks in oil consumption per capita in Advanced Economies, prior to 1983. In this early time frame, cutbacks in oil usage were fairly easy to obtain. Some examples include:
- US-made cars in the early 1970s were large and fuel inefficient, but Japan and Europe were already making smaller vehicles. By importing smaller vehicles, and making smaller ones in the US, major savings could take place in oil usage.
- Some oil was being burned to generate electricity. Such generation could be changed to natural gas, coal or nuclear.
- Home heating often used oil. Such heating could be replaced with heat based on natural gas or electricity.
With respect to China joining the WTO in 2001, and this action leading to much greater consumption of coal for manufacturing, these actions ironically followed the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. According to this protocol, Advanced Economies indicated that they planned to reduce their own carbon dioxide emissions. They did this by outsourcing manufacturing to countries not affected by the Kyoto Protocol. These countries were poor countries, including China and India.
It is possible to see the effect of this ramp up in energy consumption by Other than Advanced Economies in both Figures 3 and 4, starting about 2002. In theory, energy consumption per capita by Advanced Economies should have fallen at the same time, but it didn’t. This is one reason why carbon dioxide per capita started rising rapidly in 2002 (Figure 6).
One squeezing-out event disproportionately affected “Other than Advanced Economies.” This was the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. All the countries involved in the Soviet Bloc were affected. Manufacturing in these countries dropped at about this time, as did all types of energy production and consumption. This can be seen as a small dip in the “Other than Advanced Economies” line between 1991 and 2001 in Figures 2 and 3.
While the Soviet Union had plenty of fossil fuels, the world oil price was very low (indicating oversupply). As a result, the country was not getting enough revenue for reinvestment in new oil fields and to repay debt and meet other obligations. The world’s self-organizing economy squeezed out the least efficient oil producer, which was the Soviet Union. The fact that the economy was Communist, and thus allocated resources and rewards in a strange way, may have also played a role in the collapse.
Figure 5 shows the widespread impact of the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union.
[5] The narrative, “We are moving away from fossil fuels to prevent climate change,” seems to be self-organized by the dissipative structures underlying Advanced Economies.
The real story is that fossil fuels are moving away from us. Somehow, we must adapt, very quickly, to this disastrous situation. But this is not a story that politicians can tell their constituents, or that universities can tell their students who are studying for future job opportunities. Instead, they need a “best case” scenario: There is perhaps something we can do; we can transition away from fossil fuel use quickly.
It is not possible to explain to the public what is really happening. Instead, a “Sour Grapes” scenario is presented. In this narrative, the current economy can continue, much as today, without fossil fuels. (This is clearly nonsense in a physics-based economy, with today’s “renewables.”) We should move away from fossil fuels because they add too much carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.
It should be noted that this “we-can-move-from-fuels narrative” has been spearheaded by the International Energy Association (IEA), which is an arm of the OECD. (I mentioned earlier that I have equated OECD with Advanced Economies). Countries included in “Other than Advanced Economies,” at best, claim lip service to limiting carbon emissions. Their primary interest is in raising the living standards of their populations. To a significant extent, the fossil fuels that Advanced Economies decide not to use can be used by Other than Advanced Economies.
Figure 6 below shows that the efforts of IEA/OECD to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have worked in precisely the wrong direction, on a world basis. Preliminary data for 2023 shows that world carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rose by another 1.1%.
The plan to reduce carbon emissions for participating countries was first specified in the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. The World Trade Organization (WTO) began a little earlier than this, in 1995. The purpose of the WTO was to increase world trade and thus the total goods and services the world economy was able to produce. In some sense, the Kyoto Protocol and the WTO had opposite objectives. The only way more goods and services could be produced was by using more fossil fuels.
Figure 6 shows that fossil fuel emissions increased sharply after China joined the WTO in December 2001. China was able to ramp up its industrial production using its very large coal resources. It is not clear that the Kyoto Protocol did much besides encouraging Advanced Economies to move their manufacturing elsewhere. This paved the way for the industrialization of Other than Advanced Economies, mainly by burning coal. At the same time, the Advanced Economies have been turned into service economies that are dependent upon Other than Advanced Economies for manufactured goods of nearly all kinds.
NASA says that when carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere, it stays around for 300 to 1000 years. NASA also reports that the increase in atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa was the highest ever in 2023.
The increases shown on Figure 7 are relative to a large base. As percentages, they range from about 0.2% per year in the earliest periods to about 0.6% per year in recent periods.
In summary, whatever the Advanced Economies are doing to restrict emissions still leaves the world’s emissions from fossil fuels, as well as atmospheric emissions, rising fairly rapidly. Given the self-organizing nature of the world economy, I am doubtful that there is anything we humans can do to fix this situations. The people in Other than Advanced Economies need fossil fuels to feed their growing populations, and to give them the basic necessities of life.
[6] Figure 8 shows the path that Advanced Economies seem to be following.
In my opinion, with less oil and other energy per capita, Advanced Economies have become increasingly hollowed out, with more of their manufacturing transferred to Other than Advanced Economies.
In Figure 8, economies start out small, with growing resources per capita. As resource limits are hit, economic growth slows, and well-paying jobs become harder to get, especially for young people. In agricultural economies, the problem is that farms need to get smaller and smaller if there are too many surviving children, and they all want to be farmers. Clearly, too small a farm will not feed a growing family.
In the case of Advanced Economies, they become hollowed out because they find themselves increasingly dependent on imported goods and services. Other than Advanced Economies, with lower wages, less overhead for heating/cooling homes and health care, and lower energy costs, can produce manufactured goods more cheaply than Advanced Economies.
As Advanced Economies lose manufacturing and industries such as mining, they also become more dependent on debt and government programs. This added debt becomes increasingly hard to service, especially when interest rates rise.
Advanced Economies become particularly vulnerable to adverse changes because they have lost the ability to manufacture many of the goods required for everyday living. In fact, it becomes a problem even to fight wars, because many of the materials required to make weapons need to be imported from overseas.
Over the long-term, collapse may occur, but this collapse is unlikely to occur all at once. Instead, it can be expected to be what is sometimes called catabolic collapse, which takes place in steps. Parts of the economy will hold together as long as there are resources to support those parts. Future changes in Advanced Economies can be thought of as being somewhat like the changes to the economy in 2020 (indirectly related to Covid-19), but “on steroids.”
[7] Some of the kinds of changes that can be expected.
We don’t know precisely what changes to economies lie ahead, but these are some ideas of things might happen to Advanced Economies before a full collapse.
[a] Loss of the “hegemony” of the US. In the years since World War II, the US has taken on the role of the world’s policeman. But the US has been having increased difficulties when it comes to actually winning the wars it gets involved in. It is very difficult for the US to make weapons in quantity when large parts of the supply lines involve other countries. Also, today’s weapons aren’t necessarily suited to dealing with today’s attacks, such as by the Houthi Group in the Red Sea.
Changes may already be starting. We hear about Victoria Nuland’s recent abrupt retirement as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs. She is described as “a determined advocate of tough policies toward Vladimir Putin.” She is being replaced, at least temporarily, by John Bass, who oversaw the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
[b] Loss of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The US has had a financial advantage, as long as all other countries had to first change their currencies to the US dollar, in order to trade among themselves. This arrangement allowed the US to import more than it exported, year after year. It also allowed the US to use sanctions against other countries to cut off their trading abilities.
Changes already seem to be starting to reduce the role of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. In May 2023, Reuters reported, Vast China-Russia resources trade shifts to yuan from dollars in Ukraine fallout. Also, the BRICS nations have been working on an alternative currency, as a possible replacement currency for trading. And, of course, there are all kinds of cryptocurrencies that might be expected to facilitate purchases across borders.
[c] Major loss of trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific freight trade and passenger travel. An easy way to save oil would be to stop shipping goods as far as producers do today. Unfortunately, quite a bit of what we purchase in the US has supply lines that start in China.
Without trans-Atlantic or trans-Pacific supply lines, many goods the US depends upon would disappear from shelves in the US. Computers and telephones, for example, might become unavailable, as would many drugs, especially low-cost drugs. Even high-quality steel drilling pipes, used for oil extraction, might become difficult to obtain.
It is not clear how the US would deal with this issue. It is likely that the economy would need to find substitutes or get along without whatever is lost due to broken supply lines.
[d] Significant defaults on financial promises of all kinds, including bonds, loans made by banks, rental contracts, and derivatives. Ultimately, a decline in asset prices seems likely.
The amount of debt and financial products used in Advanced Economies is at record levels. If a major recession occurs, debt defaults and derivative failures can be expected. Some renters will default on their contracts. Bank failures can be expected, as well.
Politicians will not want to throw people out of their homes; they likely won’t even want to take their automobiles away. Instead, it is likely to be those who are counting on wealth from long-term promises made by poor people who lose out. For example, some of today’s wealthy people may find their wealth disappears when renters cannot make payments on their apartments or farms.
If bank lending starts becoming a problem, peer-to-peer lending may start to take a larger role. This would seem to be the equivalent of replacing taxis by Ubers and replacing hotels by private citizens renting out rooms. The total amount of debt available will fall. With less debt available, asset prices of all kinds will tend to fall.
[e] Much more interest in reusing old buildings, old furnishings, and old clothes. Also, making use of salvaged parts of buildings and spare parts from old mechanical equipment, including automobiles.
If the making of goods that depend on overseas supply lines becomes difficult, substitutes such as previously used goods will likely be in demand. For example, we may go back to sourcing replacement parts from automobiles parked in junk yards.
Local entrepreneurs will find ways to make use of whatever goods can be used again. Such work may be a new source of jobs.
[8] We are likely to have a bumpy road ahead. Energy and the economy work together in very strange ways. While the path is generally downward for the world, the part of the world that uses energy very sparingly has a better chance of maintaining and even increasing its standard of living.
Our self-organizing economy puts together all kinds of narratives that lead us to believe that we certainly know the only path forward (and, in fact, we can control the economy to follow this path). But the system doesn’t behave the way we think it does. We assume that if we in the United States or Europe stop using fossil fuels, it will reduce the world’s use of fossil fuels. For example, stopping the Keystone XL Pipeline in 2021 was considered a great environmental victory. But now we read, Canada could lead the world in oil production growth in 2024.
This extra production will likely be going west to China and to other Asian destinations. Canada’s expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline will open in April 2024, adding 590,000 barrels per day of export capacity. If US protestors don’t want Canada’s “tar sands,” many people in China and other poor countries certainly want it. The very heavy oil that Canada produces is ideal for producing diesel, which the world economy is short of.
Likewise, the US may have bypassed easily mineable coal in its rush to shift electricity generation to natural gas. If the US cannot maintain its military strength, this coal becomes a valuable resource for any military power that wants to test its strength against the US. This available coal makes war against the US by other powers more likely. It is well known that a major reason for wars is to obtain energy resources for one’s own people.
We don’t know what is ahead. The “truths” that we are sure we know, aren’t necessarily true. The world economy seems likely to head downward slowly, but this general downward movement will be in spurts. Trying to predict exactly what is ahead is close to impossible.
As Republicans propose to raise the Social Security retirement age, here’s how benefits may change
PUBLISHED FRI, MAR 22 2024 3:07 PM EDT Lorie KonishCNBC
KEY POINTS
House Republicans have released a new proposal to raise the Social Security retirement age.
Democrats have called for requiring the wealthy to pay more taxes so benefits can be enhanced.
Here’s what current and future beneficiaries need to know about those proposals.The trust funds that Social Security relies on to pay benefits may run out in the next decade. For retirees, that may amount to a 23% benefit cut. For the average dual-income couple, that would result in a $17,400 benefit cut, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has estimated.
Medicare’s hospital insurance trust fund, which covers Medicare Part A, may face insolvency in 2031.
Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office is now projecting public debt will grow to 166% of gross domestic product by 2054, up from about 97% as of fiscal year 2023.
The debt will grow….no debate there BAU 2050 Dave🤪
same is happening in uk
been saying it for the last 10 years.
when the pension scheme started in 1908, there were 28 workers to every pensioner, who got the pension aged 70. (just men, not women)
now there are at best, only 6 workers for every pensioner—we live on the energy-difference provided by fossil fuels.
the bottom line is easy to read—we can’t afford old people.
(except me of course)
Norman, your pension is merely part of a complex economic structure.
my pension is the product of a n economic system supported by cheap surplus energy
For which I am sure we are all truly grateful.
Although perhaps surplus energy has been so cheap that we have tended to waste it?
George Washington’s family used to make their own candles. That was the spirit!
that is just human nature Tim
we look back and think we have wasted the energy of our youth on the frivolities of life and living—but it was good while it lasted.
a little ditty i wrote a while ago:
I’ve changed my mind about age
Wisdom would come with it they said
Instead of becoming a local Sage
I’m now .spending more time in my bed
In earlier times I was there from choice
When demand was made that I should
Now I wake not to rise from my bed
But to convince myself I’m not dead
I remember when stairs went two at a time
While over my shoulder went she
Now I’m looking at stairlifts
With a seat that has just room for me
There seems little choice about aging
The years roll up and come not in ones
But in tens that are speeding me onward
With no way of slowing them down
A future that’s invested in oldness
Brings a dividend paid with my life
Keeping doctors in useful employment
By prodding to make sure I’m alive
I want to irk them by saying
That another day now has arrived
And a new poem’s going round in my head
That will show you all I’ve survived
They had plenty of slaves to do that
Notice that it is “Public Debt” that will grow to 166% of GDP by 2054. US debt owed to Trust Funds is not considered as part of Public Debt. When you read that the Social Security Trust Fund is funded to a given year, some of the funding comes from non-public US debt. The US government will need to replace the non-public debt with new debt, to “pay” for these benefits. Payment is being made with a huge bubble.
Total goods and services being made will be falling in the years ahead. Some people have to be left out, or get a reduced amount.
That debt also doesn’t take into account a black swan event.
Russia is gearing up for a colossal assault on UKR with massive FAB-3000 shells.
They are openly taking about ‘war’ now rather than just a SMO and the UKR government will have to go.
NATO is in a state of military-industrial collapse and it cannot produce basically the sort of small 155 mm shells that it made 100 years ago in WWI.
NATO has lost all of the industry, the materials, the industrial skills. Service economies are completely useless in wars.
Reality is all coming out now.
NATO expects UKR to likely collapse within months.
FAB-3000. Russia begins war. Macron, Ukraine will collapse
Ales and Alexander talking about the Ukraine situation.
I can’t understand how Ukraine has held on this long.
“I can’t understand how Ukraine has held on this long.”
With help from the US Neocons, CIA, NSA, MIC and NATO. They need war because the current monetary and financial systems are collapsing. They need a scapegoat for WWIII.
Good points!
Putin says that Russia is now going beyond “Active Defense.” Can conclude that Russia will go on the offensive.
Pescov indicates that Russia wants regime change in Ukraine.
In the last few days, have seen the most massive strikes by Russia, including some targeting power stations and electricity transmission and internet.
Macron is saying that he expects Ukraine to Collapse.
This is something that Paul Craig Roberts has complained about regarding Putin. He has extensively called him out for going easy on Ukraine and trusting the West.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/03/21/the-ever-widening-war-57/
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/03/16/the-ever-widening-war-56/
Excerpt: The Ever Widening War
Paul Craig Roberts
I have no idea why French President Macron is talking so aggressively about war with Russia, saying he will send French soldiers to Odessa and telling Russia’s President Putin “We are a nuclear power and We are ready,” or who might have put him up to taking such an aggressive position.
I have been writing for two years that Putin needs to end the conflict as the war continues to widen and will spin out of control. The way Putin has fought this conflict is a strategic blunder of the worst kind. Russia should have seized, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Kiev immediately and left the Ukrainian army trapped in the east cut off from supplies. If President Macron does put French soldiers in Odessa, Putin cannot complete the obvious military task in Ukraine without going to war with NATO.
Russia has gained absolutely nothing by the pointless, endless prolongation of the conflict. The war has widened, and now European leaders are talking about preparing for war with Russia. Two more countries, Sweden and Finland, have joined NATO, so Ukraine was kept out at the cost of two other additions.
We definitely don’t need an expanded war, I agree.
Paul Craig Roberts appears to think NATO could fight a war. It could not.
Perhaps Putin isn’t so interested to conquer a failed state with a burning forever radioactive spot? A glance to the map shows, that Crimea is needed to dominate the Black Sea and that this is Russias sole connection to world trade. The port in St. Petersburg is not ice-free until April. What is more, the EU is in negotiations to integrate Aserbajdshan, which means NATO will need to secure the logistic in the Black Sea.
Women currently play a large part in war mongering. Women send young men dying on the battlefields. Statistically, women are more easily convinced by moral than by strategic arguments. Putin is a mean character and he is worth sacrificing our sons and youth! The bra burners would never go themselves.
If you assume strategic objectives, Putin should have no interests in occupying failed states in Europe.
“no interests in occupying failed states”?
“well guess what folks everybody acknowledges now
11:54
including the ukrainians that Putin Not only was willing to stop but he did
12:02
stop six weeks after the special military operation the invasion of
12:08
Ukraine started what do I mean well he
12:13
he indicated five days after the beginning of the operation look let’s talk this to here we don’t have to kill
12:20
each other we’re brothers for God’s sake we’re both Slavic peoples we live together let’s deal and guess what the
12:27
the ukrainians when sininsky had a little bit more flexibility said well
12:33
that makes sense it looks like they looks like they may take keev so let’s negotiate they met in belus and they met
12:41
again in turkey and we have all kinds of people attesting to this and in Turkey
12:48
they got an agreement and the agreement included that Russia would stop I mean
12:55
you got it Russia would stop and Ukraine would remain neutral and they would deal
13:03
with Crimea and the donbas later they th out their forces it was it was a
13:10
document it was initialed and the Ukrainian Representatives at those talks
13:16
in Turkey certified that this was reached and further certified that it
13:23
was Boris Johnson that the US sent in the head of UK at the time and said no
13:29
don’t do that don’t don’t don’t do that because then uh then we won’t give you
13:36
as much as Aid as as we can give you and actually a lot of Aid there you know you
13:42
know and uh and weapons and we will support you if you turn down this thing
13:48
if you don’t acknowledge that you would be neutral if you if you forear
13:55
membership in NATO man don’t get don’t think you get another rifle from us for
14:00
God’s sake so turn it down and he turned it down now we have
14:07
as I say the Ukrainian negotiator he’s not a dissident he’s head of zelinsky’s
14:15
faction in the Ukrainian Parliament he spelled this out chapter and verse you
14:22
don’t see it in the western news but it’s there so what am I saying here well”?
The title of this is “Russia has destroyed Ukraine’s army and NATO is in a panic” by a former CIA intelligence analyst.
Putin has to go as far as Odessa to secure the future borders . Transnistria ( breakaway region of Moldova ) will be incorporated in Russia . Hungary , Romania and Poland carve out the border regions . The rump ” Ukraine ” fully castarised becomes a parasite country on the EU just like Kosovo and Bosnia . Eventually the EU will wash it’s hands off the perpetual subsidy and the warlords take over . A Somalia in Europe .
“never go themselves”…truer words never spoken
Latest an attack in Moscow . Get ready for WW3 .
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mass-shooting-attack-explosions-moscows-largest-concert-hall-reports
According to the article:
This does raise some questions.
Yes, what did Washington know, and when, and how?
Isn’t it strange too that Izhlamic State has sprung back into life from nowhere? And why would they target Russia, rather than Izrail and its allies, the USA and the UK? Just what and who are behind this attack?
Isn’t it strange too that Izhlamic State has sprung back into life from nowhere?
The alleged claim of responsibility from them is a fake repeated by the western media.
What if the US regime is linked to the Moscow murders?
We hope that we in the US are far enough away from Russia to stay out of harm’s way.
We do not know who the power groups are nor what their game plan is.
The only way the Russians or the Chinese can touch the US is through their submarines armed with nuclear warheads.
The fairy tale that some single males crossing the border will be used to bring down the US government is disproportionate. They can be used in concert with a major faction in the DOD to install a dictatorship.
If they really wanted to cause harm, one big bang over a point approximately 20 mi (32 km) north of Belle Fourche, South Dakota designed to produce a humongous EMP (electromagnetic pulse) could fry the United States’ power grid and most its electronic and electrical infrastructure.
Not just their subs Ed, although you certainly shouldn’t discount what they alone could do.
“Unmanned underwater vehicles can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads, which enables them to engage various targets, including aircraft groups, coastal fortifications and infrastructure.
In December 2017, an innovative nuclear power unit for this unmanned underwater vehicle completed a test cycle that lasted many years. The nuclear power unit is unique for its small size while offering an amazing power-weight ratio. It is a hundred times smaller than the units that power modern submarines, but is still more powerful and can switch into combat mode, that is to say, reach maximum capacity, 200 times faster.
The tests that were conducted enabled us to begin developing a new type of strategic weapon that would carry massive nuclear ordnance.”
We can’t defend against that and we can’t defend against Sarmat, so why are we still poking in an attempt to force a reaction?
“Sarmat will replace the Voevoda system made in the USSR. Its immense power was universally recognized. Our foreign colleagues even gave it a fairly threatening name.
That said, the capabilities of the Sarmat missile are much higher. Weighing over 200 tonnes, it has a short boost phase, which makes it more difficult to intercept for missile defence systems. The range of the new heavy missile, the number and power of its combat blocs is bigger than Voevoda’s. Sarmat will be equipped with a broad range of powerful nuclear warheads, including hypersonic, and the most modern means of evading missile defence. The high degree of protection of missile launchers and significant energy capabilities the system offers will make it possible to use it in any conditions.
Voevoda’s range is 11,000 km while Sarmat has practically no range restrictions.
As the video clips show, it can attack targets both via the North and South poles.
Sarmat is a formidable missile and, owing to its characteristics, is untroubled by even the most advanced missile defence systems.
But we did not stop at that. We started to develop new types of strategic arms that do not use ballistic trajectories at all when moving toward a target and, therefore, missile defence systems are useless against them, absolutely pointless.”
That thing will be carrying nuclear armed Avangard hypersonic(Mach 25+) glide vehicles and if the Sarmat is untouchable….
As far as the terrorist attack goes, if the white helmets turn up, it’s a British op and if M c Cancer open back up in Moscow, a U.S op.
From the Telegraph (UK).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/03/22/ukraine-russia-war-live-zelensky-us-oil-refineries/
Analysis: ‘Russia is a target to Islamists’
Our Russia reporter, James Kilner, shares this insight:
Islamic State (IS) is active in Russia and the five neighbouring Muslim former Soviet Central Asian states, fertile recruiting grounds during its war in Syria in the 2010s.
Earlier in March, Russia’s FSB security services said that it killed two Kazakh nationals near Moscow who were part of an Islamic State terrorist plot to kill Jews. It also said that six Islamic State terrorists were killed in a shoot in Ingushetia earlier in March.
The FSB says that it deals with dozens of Islamic terrorist plots every year. Most are low-level plots which don’t make headlines and are mainly constrained to the North Caucasus where, despite heavy government spending and support for hardmen loyalists, anti-Russia and Islamist sentiment combine to generate a threat.
Russia is a potential target in the eyes of Islamists because it helped defeat Islamic State in Syria and helps the security services of its allies in Central Asia root out and defeat Islamist cells.
Strange.
And of course “cui bono”. ISIS-USA have been collaborating for nine years now. But we are really seeing the final phase. This month is going to be bloodier than the prior one, guaranteed.
Again, Islasmic State have NOT taken responsibility for the attack.
Crap . The West is deflecting . They are s**t scared if VVP looses his cool it is adios London , Berlin , Paris and Brussels .
Other info on the terrorist attack in Moscow here
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mass-shooting-attack-explosions-moscows-largest-concert-hall-reports
Sorry for repetition. Another link should appear soon
(Reuters)
Terrorist attack in Moscow !
Very bad attack.
This is something we need to understand better, maybe Mirror or Drb or who knows something could help about it.
Nothing good could come out of this.
Very interesting is to understand in the next days/weeks who could be behind.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/shooting-blast-reported-concert-hall-near-moscow-agencies-2024-03-22/
I learned it from you as I am in the village. Perused some russian sources. It seems to be a suicide attack. Because they are still inside shooting everyone they can find I expect a much larger toll. Concur with Mirror that we are not far from the end. As with all ends of wars, things are becoming much bloodier and the Ukrainians are doing what they can to make Russia pay, which is attacking civilians.
Vlad time to use the nukes.
The nukes are for America.
He will strike Canukistan also right?
He seemed really pissed at Trudeau over the Nazi in parliament deal.
I truthfully would rather see my son and I have to deal with fall out and extreme cold than continue to live in this feminized totalitarian farce of a nation.
Anytime in the next week would be fine for our schedule?
I answered but got stuck in moderation.
I will wait. Thanks
https://europeanconservative.com/articles/interviews/loretta/
Make Deutschland blue again
Papa Smurf for Reich Chancellor
Loretta: I posted other things on TikTok, like that AfD party leader Alice Weidel is my role model, or AfD-politician Björn Höcke’s quote “You raise your children to be sheep and let wolves into the country,” because that’s exactly what I’m afraid of as a girl! But they weren’t mentioned by the police.
https://slaynews.com/news/turbo-cancer-deaths-surge-vaxxed-15-44-year-olds/
Bait for the fast moving Australian hockey player.
‘Well, Hannah Ritchie’s actually written a whole book about our future world,
5:47
including a section on resources availability in which she makes this point…
5:53
“Those that say low-carbon energy will use too many materials should take a look at how much
5:57
we currently mine for fossil fuels. The world extracts around fifteen BILLION tonnes of coal,
6:04
oil and gas every year. The International Energy Agency projects that the world will need around
6:09
twenty-eight to forty MILLION tonnes of minerals for low carbon technologies in twenty-forty,
6:15
at the height of the energy transition. [ ] Put simply:
6:18
moving to low-carbon technologies will mean less mining not more.”’?
all you need to do is figure out how to mine 28- 40 million tons of rock (per year?) without fossil fuels.
“moving to low-carbon technologies will mean less mining not more.”’?”
Like the question mark at the end. My hypothesis: mining is so yesterday, we will need to mine virtually nothing. Save spaceship earth for biology.
So, TINA.
Big money going for broke, AI and Starship. Recall Altman was looking for something like $7B of investment capital for OpenAI. The board wanted to or had him fired, he is back, different board.
Starship 4 launches in four weeks. Personal guess, AI is behind the scenes looking at the data both after failure and in real time during failure.
A unique coming together of two very advanced technologies, AI and Starship, coincident, coincidence? Maybe someone/thing looked down and decided the biology project needed a hand. (Watched “Noah” last night, liked it.)
We don’t need oil and minerals forever, we need them long enough to move manufacturing and element collection to space. Correct me if I am wrong, but super novas make elements, not ores, etc. Ores and minerals are so yesterday.
Earth can go all electric, store electrons as protons, convert back to electrons with fuel cells. Catchy phrase I think, very physical. Yes, it is a bit of a stretch, but catchy.
Love the metaphor, we are going for vertical integration.
Dennis L.
I have answered below that Starship is just a teardrop in the bucket. You need a billion starships to build your 1 cubic mile Pt chunk.
There are not enough materials to build the necessary number of starships to make it really worth anything. It is simple arithmetic.
You flaunt the laws of thermodynamics so I am sure you will flaunt simple arithmetic as well. However, whether you like such laws or not, they are there and no amount of tech will overcome the basic laws of nature.
low carbon technology is a horse and cart, windmill, and sailing ship. (and shoes)
have you checked the distance to nearest supernova dennis?
Norm,
The results of a super nova are all around us, iron is made in a supernova, uranium is made in a supernova, it is spit out in chunks, not as an ore. The stuff is all around us in the solar system. To find it we send out thousands of explorers(small robotic, devices) search for a metaphoric cubic mile of Pt.
Musk is already launching thousands of satellites, the engineering has been done and the trip has been done, Voyager. Man will go for thousands of years and in doing so will build on the shoulders of what we do today.
The nova comes to us, spaceship earth is traveling through the galaxy at about 447,000 mph. We have our spaceship, it is very well designed. Everything comes to us as biology or goes by. Chill out with a glass or red wine and enjoy the ride.
One square mile of Pt, near earth, being processed into fuel cells and we can sing electrons to protons and back to electrons. Then someone can worry about the thermodynamics of protons. Why do they not stop spinning?
Dennis L.
Just one at a time, and not that successful.
Voyager is not coming back. There was, and is, no way to make it come back.
I already proved how many starships are needed to build the cubic mile of Pt. One billion. Maybe one million and one billion make no difference to you, but it does make a huge difference.
As Don Quixote’s ilness developed, his delusions simply grew until he lost all sense of reality. He only came to senses at the end because the author Cervantes was dying himself and he wanted to make sure he ended that book himself to prevent any copycats from occurring, otherwise the Don’s delusions would have consumed the entire Spain.
Dennis, as i’ve said before, as a retired dentist your primary intellect cannot be in doubt.
but could it be, that in later years, (like the rest of us) you might be losing your grip on reality?
A dentist, as you know, was not much different from a barber.
A dental surgeon is a tough job. I don’t know what he did, but given his acuity on arithmetic seems to be a bit weak, I think he mostly did mechanical work.
That’s exactly the type of things that type I civilization does, store electrons as protons.
You get it!
Dennis L.
“But now, the world’s largest battery maker, CATL reckons it will reduce the
4:46
cost of its LFP battery cells by a further fifty percent by mid twenty-twenty-four, to just over
4:51
fifty-six US dollars per kilowatt hour. That means a typical sixty kilowatt-hour LFP battery
4:57
pack that was costing auto-manufacturers almost seven thousand US dollars in twenty-twenty-three,
5:03
will set them back less than three thousand four hundred dollars just twelve months later,
5:07
saving those car makers more then three thousand dollars on the cost price of each vehicle. “?
This is possible because ore grades are continually improving. Copper grains used to be 10 microns, and then became 150, and now we find truck-sized nuggets in river beds.
I agree totally with the size of the nuggets, only they are above us, not in our rivers. Rivers are for biology.
Dennis L.
LOL!
Or perhaps the cost of electricity is going down.
It turns out Fast Eddy is a rusted out tanker on a sand dune
https://www.oilystuff.com/single-post/fast-eddy
NATO is using Neo-Nazism as an anti-Russian geopolitical instrument to set Russia’s neighbours against. NATO is totally up for Neo-Nazism so long as it can marshal it to its own ends.
NATO is totally against it in its western European heartlands because the bourgeois capitalist states rely on mass immigration to keep the economy going and to finance the state.
But NATO is flexible and it can be for or against Neo-Nazism depending on the theatre. NATO has no real ideological constraints and it all comes down to what is useful and where and when it is useful and where and when it is not.
Kulm, do you consider the Baltic states to be a part of the ‘master race’ or are they wannabes in your view?
This is a google translation:
https://www.pravda.ru/world/1978326-pribaltiiskie/
Neo-Nazism in the Baltics. How long will Russia tolerate the Russophobia of the “extinct people”
The Baltic countries are moving towards the abyss along the Russophobic path
The once Soviet republic, and now the Western and even NATO state of Lithuania may become even more Russophobic .
Although, it would seem, there is much more.
Neo-Nazi in power
The thing is that they want to appoint a neo-Nazi as Minister of Defense.
Laurynas Kaciunas was previously a member of the radical neo-Nazi party, although he has now left it. Lithuania has already stated that this is a “good” candidate, since only he can “protect” from “evil Russia” with his Russophobia.
It should be noted that all post-Soviet republics are Russophobic to one degree or another. An exception is Belarus. But in other countries one or another Russophobic element is present. Some have more, some have less. These Baltic countries are having a blast, for which we are probably partly to blame. We had too soft a policy towards them after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
From the USSR to nowhere
And, of course, the acquisition of independence plus their own inferiority complexes are the reason for such an immature policy of the states of the post-Soviet space. Moreover, hostility towards Russians and bad relations with Russia were considered good manners and almost a condition for good relations with the United States and the West in general.
In post-Soviet times, Russia had enough leverage in relation to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. For a long time we persuaded these Baltic countries, talked about mutually beneficial cooperation, in a word, we used all our levers very weakly. By the way, for quite a long time they lived through cooperation with Russia. Suffice it to recall the Baltic ports, which are now literally rotting.
Also, Russia at one time reacted rather sluggishly to their entry into NATO, which, of course, gave these small countries the opportunity to act extremely brazenly in their statements.
However, I don’t think that the policies of these countries are adequate and far-sighted. It is unlikely that this will bring them any dividends, since all this looks rather disgusting and inhuman.
Cave Europe
Take the same Nazi who claims to be the Minister of Defense of Lithuania. After all, he headed the youth organization of the radical party, and then served as deputy head. In his speeches, Kasciunas emphasized the ethnic factor, calling for the reverence of nationalism in Lithuania.
If we consider Nazism as a phenomenon, then it is an ideology that asserts that one nation, some people, are a priori superior to others. That is, higher based on the fact of their birth. Not more educated, not kinder, not more gifted, but higher, better. Because they were born with exactly this nationality. And they don’t care about personal qualities or characteristics; according to their ideology, some are still superior to others by birth.
And this is today’s Europe, with such caveman and wild ideas! Moreover, in the world and nature there is simply no evidence that one nation is higher or better than another. This simply cannot happen by definition. This means that all these theories of the neo-Nazis of Europe are absolutely cannibalistic. And to be proud of the fact that you were a member of such parties is stupid and strange. And don’t go to grandma, such stupidity will definitely lead to a fatal result.
And all you need for this nonsense – a little time…
Whether some people liked it or not, it was necessary for the West to appropriate all of Russia’s resources to fuel the next stage of civilization.
with that goal fleeting farther and farther, the chance of human civilization hitting the bottleneck is now increasing as well.
Except that Russia is awfully far away from the US. Europe and Japan have practically no energy resource of their own. And, Australia and New Zealand in some ways act like big islands, with a huge need for imported manufactured goods.
The West can only act by trickery since it is very short of weapons to physically force Russia to do anything. What is the West supposed to do, to advance its position? Or is it only part of the West?
A lot of Russia’s oil comes from the Yamal region, which is in the arctic and is actually not that far from Canada, if the arctic can be overcome.
There are also some oil coming out from northern Sakhalin, which was Japanese until 1945.
kul,
Count me as one who does not like it.
How do you propose to accomplish your goal? When the British tested one of their nuclear missiles from a submarine it emerged from the sub and fell into the water.
How do you plan on avoid being one of the killies?
Resources for all are above our head, huge amounts of money are being put into that effort. Looks like a throw of the dice, it is the only option and some group is very serious. Rockets are not cheap.
I think we will make it, it will be close, it will be painful; but life is that way.
“If your struggling, you are learning, if you are hurting, you are growing.”
Dennis L.
It will be close, bit no cigar, without the Russian resources.
Huge amount of money means nothing if they cannot buy the resources which.
It should have been done in 2017 by President Hillary Clinton, before Russia had developed the hypersonic missiles. It is too late. No amount of willpower or delusion will create something which is not there, whether you like it or not.
How do you plan on avoid being one of the killies?
With kulm’s attitude this may not be easy post collapse
Please try and stay with the script kulm….you were doing so well there for a bit….
Civilization is FINISHED……and cataclysm is coming.
This 3D world is a stage made for pain and suffering……ruled by the great pretender.
Souls compete to enter here so as to suffer and struggle and learn that in 3d things come hard…….
we don’t need civilization for those things……but we do need the realm to exist. Civilization must die so the realm persists for humans to enter.
We need to wake up to true REALITY……
The realms beyond have their own ecologies and they are tooth and claw also…just more ethereal. Learn to become a lion in this world not a goat….and the afterlife may reward you by allowing access to better hunting.
The civilized are goats…..
The game was decided in 2019 when hypersonic missiles were announced. You will be proven correct – the decisive battle has been fought.
2018 Kulm, although it would also be correct to say we were told in 2004.
I’ve mentioned before about reading Putin’s words, as he always tells us what is planned and embarrassingly for the West, consistently delivers. He even reminds us in the 2018 address “Of course, every word has a meaning”.
He opened that address with these words
“Today’s Address is a very special landmark event, just as the times we are living in, when the choices we make and every step we take are set to shape the future of our country for decades to come.
It is at such turning points that Russia has proven, time and again, its ability to develop and renew itself, discover new territories, build cities, conquer space and make major discoveries. This unwavering forward-looking drive, coupled with traditions and values, ensured the continuity in the thousand-year-long history of our nation”
Looking back that makes a lot of sense and all the scary change comes coated with the balm of traditions and values, ensuring continuity, so everyone feels a part of it and works towards it. Skinner would be impressed.
Defence announcement is about ⅔ through, but read it all, as the stuff about education, economics and agriculture puts the West to shame.
Oh to be resource rich, have a plan and the wit to implement it. Nice to see at least one nation looking to the future.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56957
Thank God for the Russians then!
Humanity went wrong when we stopped killing the violent a-holes who tried to rule over the rest of us.
Returning to that status quo that held for most of human history will do wonders for us and the rest of the living world.
Or, just let the Russian take the world to the next level. They seem to know what they are doing.
here here!!!
Putinburg the largest city on Mars.
They are incapable of reaching the next stage of civ.
They are content to remain at where they are now
I have said repeatedly here that to advance to Type I Civ it is necessary to cut the consumption of about 99% of human pop to virtually nothing.
Extreme caste system, total surveilence, no freedom of action for the bottom 99% is needed.
Otherwise total regression of civilization is inevitable.
Please do not bother us with this civ. I fluff while we are experiencing peak chocolate.
And to boot peak Coffee too and may I add Bananas…OMG..life without these will not be worth living..
No Chocolate….heaven help us
wow once in a while there is a new aspect to Reality that stuns me…
Peak Chocolate!
what a great time to be alive!!
You will not say that once it is clear that chocolate is declining 2% a year! Or when the EIA obscures reality by publishing numbers for dark chocolate (the only real one) plus milk chocoloate (blech). And later, as collapse is unfolding, these two plus Nutella!
damn!
Dennis L.
Thanks for understanding the gravity of the moment, Dennis.
It’s why all major companies are now all-in on humanoid robots (see NVIDIA’s investor day where they have many partnerships with humanoid robot manufacturers). Manual labor must be replaced with programmable machines if power is to be centralized further.
I also think that the puppeteers behind the curtain understand that Russia’s resources are needed to maintain the status quo. We’ll see what ultimately happens, but if they escalate in Ukraine, I will see that as the explanation.
Again it is too little and too late. The juncture has been turned and nothing will really change it.
Kulm, would a move to Type 1 Civ necessarily be an advance, even for the folks who reach that promised land? It might be better described as a retreat from the type of civilization some of us enjoy now.
this ”types of civilisation” is a highly amusing concept
any level of civilisation is wholly dependent on the amount of SURPLUS energy available to it
with little or no surplus, you live in caves, mud huts or teepees, with campfires.
increase the surplus and you get stone, wood, brick and thatch, with carts and sailing ships if you’re lucky.
and so on.–cities, powered transport etc.
fantasise all you want, but there isn’t enough surplus to get ”off earth” in any meaningful way.
Type I, II, III on the Kardashev scale are probably a scientific fiction. If a higher civilization was possible, they would have colonized our planet before we evolved as homo sapiens. The universe is 14 billion years old, our planet is 4.5 billion years old, the genus homo is only around 2 million years old and our civilization is only around 12,000 years old. The answer to fermi’s paradox is that civilization in and of itself is highly temporary and limited to their home planet. You would be inflecting horrible human suffering to try to get to an impossibility. You can’t save human civilization in the long run, just like you can’t keep yourself from dying.
The answer to fermi’s paradox is that civilization in and of itself is highly temporary and limited to their home planet.
Completely agree. Civilisations burn out pretty fast.
>> “Everyone Is Panicking”: Major Cocoa Processor Scrambles To Find Beans As Prices Hyperinflate
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/everyone-panicking-major-cocoa-processor-scrambles-find-beans-prices-hyperinflate
The end of the world has arrived! BAU is has ended!
sedge tubers are quite tasty, and you can catch carp with them.
high priced dark chocolate is totally fine.
unavailable dark chocolate would be a tragedy.
There’s always a panic when coffee or cocoa prices suddenly rise. There’s never any publicity when they stay constant in $ or £ terms for quite a long period, i.e. they fall in real terms.
(said in somber tone)
” To me it is clear that we are experiencing peak chocolate”.
I do need my daily small dose of chocolate.
I need olive oil for my cooking . Price up by 50% and occasionally have empty shelves .
https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/02/27/price-of-olive-oil-climbs-more-than-50-in-a-year-in-the-eu
(Bloomberg)
Immigration is fueling US economic growth, this is a subject Gail anticipated weeks ago.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-22/immigration-is-fueling-us-economic-growth-while-politicians-rage?srnd=homepage-americas
It seems to me that the immigrants to the US are of a much less disruptive nature than the immigrants coming to Europe. These people are often from Africa and Asia, with very different languages and cultures.
The US is getting a lot of immigrants from Mexico and other countries to the South. These people tend to have a good work ethic. They often come with a Catholic religious background, or something similar, which fits in with the current system. Immigrants tend to be reasonably bright. Spanish and English have a lot of similarities, making English fairly easy to learn. There are also quite a few people in the US who speak Spanish.
We also get some immigrants from Asian countries. To make it across the ocean to get here, these people need to be fairly enterprising and bright. On average, these folks do pretty well.
The immigrants to the US keep the workforce growing. Immigrants will “put up with” low wages, which native born Americans would not. They tend to pull down the average wage level, making their addition to the workforce helpful to employers.
China and Japan have not been taking many immigrants. These cultures are more homogeneous. Also, there is not a tradition of bringing in immigrants. The people in these countries tend to be very intelligent. Immigrants, on average, would tend to bring down the average intelligence.
Few immigrants would want to move to Russia or Africa. Too many problems. Russia is too cold for most folks.
Russia strikes Ukraine’s energy grid, hitting power stations including the crucial Dnipro hydro dam. Lights out across large stretches of east Ukraine. It’s not possible for Ukraine or its allies to replace this Soviet spec equipment. We can’t even make transformers for our own grids.
I have bought kolkhoz old places where to keep my animals. One had a transformer one not. The one without has been on backorder since September when I paid for it. They say they will have one in July, perhaps not of the needed size, in which case they are offering to redo the contract.
It seems like electricity supply is awfully easy to take down, and pretty much impossible to get back up again in a reasonable time frame. It is a terribly complex system.
In an interview with 60 minutes Admiral Rickover, father of the US nuclear Navy, stated “We will destroy ourselves”, pointing out he would forgo all his so called accomplishments and awards acclaims to put it back in the bottle.
Looks as if will be correct when we hit the downside.
Secret RCMP report warns Canadians may revolt once they realize how broke they are
Right from the get-go, the report authors warn that whatever Canada’s current situation, it ‘will probably deteriorate further in the next five years’
A secret RCMP report is warning the federal government that Canada may descend into civil unrest once citizens realize the hopelessness of their economic situation.
“The coming period of recession will … accelerate the decline in living standards that the younger generations have already witnessed compared to earlier generations,” reads the report, entitled Whole-of-Government Five-Year Trends for Canada.
“For example, many Canadians under 35 are unlikely ever to be able to buy a place to live,” it adds.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/secret-rcmp-report-warns-canadians-may-revolt-once-they-realize-how-broke-they-are
May require the federal government to start seizing private property to make things fairer.
Time for the Canadian backwoodsmen to reap what they had sown in 1915
The scumbag RCMP are just trying to bolster their funding from the vile totalitarian idiot turdeau.
I doubt there is any fear from “the backwoodsman” as they are all prancing nancies (please channel Monty Python lumberjack sketch from the late 70s)
Canada is now descending into a total craphole. It is flabbergasting to me just how fast we are collapsing.
I hope for deadlock in US presidential election followed by hyperinflationary collapse stateside……if the us economic engine stalls……the Canadian economy will enter the abyss……
then “MAYBE” there are a few backwoodsman who will help me out in my attempt to take us into the age of the horse lords.
For example, “many Canadians under 35 are unlikely ever to be able to buy a place to live,”
I am afraid this is a problem, in most every other part of the world, as well.
The world cannot afford to spend as much on housing and buildings of all sorts as we have in the past.
It seems that prices have gotten so high that major retailers are seeing less traffic and fewer sales for items because of inflation. Many of the retail chains have way too many stores, too much stock and “customers who have way too little money to buy things from them”.
Even Olive Garden is feeling the pinch as they have seen their lower earning customers eating at home and it is the higher earning customers who have taken their place.
https://qz.com/olive-garden-owner-stock-falls-as-consumers-cut-dining-1851356800
I visit practically empty stores, and I wonder how long they can stay open. To some extent, we are still in a world of “extend and pretend” when it comes to loans on these properties.
This was always a mystery to me, as the US maintained something like 10x the amount of retail square footage per capita as did the highest country in Europe on that score (iirc, Sweden). I looked into this many years ago; not sure what the most current numbers are, but they are necessarily on the decline.
The fabric is written with numbers.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/scientists-discover-pure-math-is-written-into-evolutionary-genetics/ar-AA1gf4Jg?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=2b52d682b7014091a13d7df7b958f6b7&ei=30
Number theory, who ‘have thunk?
Life is strange, there is an order, it is for us to discover it.
Dennis L.
These findings aren’t surprising, given that fractal geometry is used to describe the actual length of coastline, compared to the distance that the crow would fly.
The order isn’t what we would initially think.
This realm is not what we think it is.
I think the only solution is have a paradigm shift toward consuming way less, being self sufficient and act in a sustainable way in our close environment.
but since that paradigm shift goes against the evolved human nature to seek large amounts of daily resources, that shift will have to be involuntary.
probably shifting as the world moves deeper into Collapse.
then that solution will be imposed on the survivors.
meanwhile have you not heard?
it’s bAU tonight, baby!
It’s Party Hardy in Perth Baby with Paul and Hoolio…
Sasha coming over late…Herbie
I need proof with pics.
just Hoolio pics in Perth.
would you be able to recognize hoolio from another dog of the same breed? if yes, you might have clicked on too many of eddy’s links.
I think you’ll have to wait. Perth Paul will come back announcing a “Fans Only” for special extras and requests…if you like I’ll help you get in his inner circle..just buy me a cup of Joe and a bar of Hersey’s .
PS It ain’t cheap relocating and inflation is hurting us.
Exactly. What a conundrum! this leads to the discourse of such as Bill’s and Schwab’s. Well put, it does go against human nature, we always try to improve technology, disregarding the recurring cost and over aggregate of resources it takes. We are blind to it. In some micro cosmos it shows ; per example, in corporations some desk worker implement a computer program to simplify some widget, but the maintenance in manpower and resource drains the whole system for a simple upgrade that’s unnecessary.
World’s population to fall for first time since the Black Death
It would be the first time that the number of people on the planet has decreased since the Black Death bubonic plague pandemic killed as many as 50 million people in the mid-1300s, including up to a third of the population in Europe.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/world-population-fall-first-time-060000004.html?guccounter=1
Fast Eddie Lives! So does HayDuke..Earth First! Bats last
These low birth rates in advanced countries, at the same time that less advanced countries have high birth rates (Plus longer lives) leads to horrible immigration problems.
The order isn’t what we would initially think?
If you micro-chipped people you could stop immigration.
But that’s none of my business.
“The decline in the number of children women are having has started to slow the growth of the global population, which stands at just over eight billion, and could mean it starts to fall within decades.”
an imprecise sentence there. Since “within decades” is from now until at least 20 years from now but could be many more decades.
sitting here riding the tiger, I continue to hold out great hope that the depop is beginning in 2024.
If these f’ing vaxes weren’t blanks we might have actually gotten depop going. Incompetence strikes again.
About the argument between Tim and ivanslav regarding the Sino-Japanese War
In my opinion it was wrong for USA to get involved in Asia.
USA tried to play the balance of power shit in there, knowing next to nothing about asian culture and customs.
Sure, the Japanese did some nasty things. But nothing comparing to what the communists did.
George Marshall forcing a truce between Chiang and Mao when the commies were at their ropes in 1946 was probably the masterpiece of American naviety, which was repaid 4 years later during the Korean war. I am not even going to get into nuking china during that war.
It is unlikely that a Japanese ruled China would have been worse for civilization than now. Keep China down , ship out the coal in North China Plain for next to nothing, no need to create Chinese capital, etc.
I think, Kulm, that Ivanslav, you and I are all in broad agreement on “Sure, the Japanese did some nasty things. But nothing comparing to what the communists did.” But ask a random Chinese or Korean person and you’ll probably get a different answer.
I do understand that the US provoked Japan into attacking Pearl Harbor, and I expect that the US would have found some excuse to get into the Pacific War regardless.
And I have an inkling that not to far down the road, the US is going to provoke China into attacking Guam—not that China will need much —in order to make WWIII truly global. I hope I’m wrong on that though.
That would be too little, too late. China is now too big to be toppled that easily
They should have d one it back in 1989
as i understood it tim, the US cut off iron and oil to japan, japan then attacked pearl harbour to prevent retaliation as they also took the oil and rubber supplies of s.e.asia,
it is a natural law that empires must expand or wither away, the japanese disregarded that (i was too young to comment on it back then).
hitler was doing the same thing.
both were certain expansion would be forever, with master races subduing lesser peoples.
eventually of course, they woyld have fought each other, had they both ”won” in their spheres of world war—that would have been certain.
had the usa not intervened in 1941, events would have forced intervention in some form within a few years—as it was, japan and germany declared war on the usa, the biggest resource base in the world, where neither of them had the slightest chance of winning—for that reason.
both just ran out of fuel, basically.
if the atrocities committed by germany and japan are now to be tucked away in the folder of some kind of reason, i despair of humankind, and anyone who goes along with that.
if you have some other conspiratorial notion about it, share it, i would be interested
I broadly agree with you that expanding empires would have been forced to clash at some point in any case.
On the atrocities point, I If the atrocities committed by the US and the UK and the Russians, the Chinese, and most of all the Communists can be tucked away to the extent that even someone alive during WW2 such as yourself is blissfully unaware of their extent, then I am not going to get too hot under the collar about the atrocities specifically committed by the Germans and Japanese during that era.
I leave that sort of thing to Hollywood.
We the people are going through a worldwide genocide now courtesy of the COVID Cosplay, and yet a lot of people who really should know better remain oblivious to it and experience an eye-rolling moment when anybody raises the question.
And then there’s Gaza. You can’t mention what’s going on there in polite company. And you don’t have to look very far in Africa, Southern Asia, or Latin America to find abject cruelty, misery, poverty and injustice staring you in the face. And then there’s China, and in particular Tibet and Xinjiang. What are we to make of the treatment of the indigenous inhabitants of those lands? Apart from the obvious fact the somebody else’s will to power was backed by a lot more power than their own?
First human with Neuralink brain chip can play video game by ‘telepathy’
By Allie Griffin Published March 20, 2024, 10:50 p.m. ET New York Post
The first human to have a Neuralink computer chip surgically implanted in his brain demonstrated how he uses his thoughts to move a computer cursor around a screen to play online chess and toggle a music stream on and off.
Noland Arbaugh, a 29-year-old man who is paralyzed from the shoulders down due to a diving accident eight years ago, joined a livestream alongside a Neuralink engineer on X to show the public how the brain-computer interface tech works.
It’s all being done with my brain. If y’all can see the cursor moving around the screen, that’s all me, y’all,” he said while the livestream showed his cursor moving across an online chess game. “It’s pretty cool, huh?”
The chip contains 1,000 electrodes programmed to gather data about the brain’s neural activity and movement intention and send that data to a Neuralink computer for decoding to transform the thoughts into action.
Arbaugh explained that he simply imagines the cursor moving where he wants it to go and it does.
“Basically, it was like using the Force on the cursor and I could get it to move wherever I wanted. Just stare somewhere on the screen and it would move where I wanted it to, which was such a wild experience the first time it happened,” he said, referencing “Star Wars.”
Starships here we go….Spocks brain
A tribute to Barbra Streisand. Yes, “Barbra” – not “Barbara”. Her parents couldn’t afford the extra 10 bucks needed to purchase the extra “a”. Maybe we could crowd-fund it for her?
https://youtu.be/dxs4QTE_xfg?t=1647
This link is to a video from 1981 about the building of the football field length international space station. Notice on Figure 2 that oil consumption per capita was at about its highest level at this point. Co-operation was a reasonable strategy.
Now that oil consumption per capita is way down, fighting seems to be a higher priority. The tendency is to squeeze out more weak players of many kinds. Eventually, even those that now look strong may be squeezed out.
The idea that humans and their states would or even could cooperate as resources decline is perhaps naive.
The UN is a nice idea that humans can work together for a ‘common good’ but in practice humans and their states are more likely to simply fight it out.
Global warming is an illustration. Regardless of whether private persons think that the matter is overstated or even untrue, it illustrates how states act when they _think_ that it is the case.
The UN says that we are still entirely on course for a 3 degree rise and for the worst climate outcomes and the states presumably believe that.
And yet it very much looks like the states are just going to fight it out as we very much still see around us in the world today.
Cooperation to solve a perceived common and very grave threat? Basically, no. Fight it out for relative power and to maximise a share of what remains? Basically, yes.
Humans and their states are what they are and it is probably naive to exect them to act in any other way regardless of the post-WWII myths about how the world ‘can’ or even ‘does’ work.
This is not Startrek, it is how humans and their states actually tend to behave in the real world.
Which is why an empire, or a global govt, was needed to advance civilization to the other side.
It is like the game of the chairs previously mentioned in this blog with your article.
https://www.sustainable-carbon.org/usa-new-ev-battery-factory-requires-so-much-energy-a-coal-power-plant-will-be-expanded-delayed-closure-by-years/
A new electric vehicle battery factory in Kansas will require so much energy that a coal plant slated for closure will now remain open, plus it will be expanded. Panasonic is building a $4 billion EV battery factory in De Soto, Kansas. The upcoming lithium-ion battery manufacturing facility is expected to start mass production of EV batteries by the end of March 2025.
Despite the massive $4 billion price tag for the 2.7 million square foot Panasonic facility, the Japanese company is “poised to get as much as $6.8 billion from provisions in last year’s federal Inflation Reduction Act,” according to a July report from the Kansas City Star. The Japanese company is expected to receive state and local incentives – pushing the total financial incentives to as much as $8 billion.
I looked to see if I could find any more recent articles about this plant. This article seems to be related:
https://www.fox23.com/news/panasonic-pulls-out-of-plan-to-build-second-ev-battery-factory-in-pryor/article_dae5494c-dbe3-11ed-8ff5-43299a0fee27.html
Panasonic pulls out of plan to build second EV battery factory in Pryor
Maybe things aren’t going outstandingly well.
Looks like there may be problerms getting enough coal as well. The expansion of the coal fired plant in Kansas is planned to be with a gas turbine.
Not sarcastic:
A cubic mile of Pt, Starship, fuel cells manufactured with robots, solar energy collected on earth, convert water to H use H, convert back to water.
It makes as much sense is taking coal and making electricity to be stored in batteries to be converted ultimately to waste heat.
I agree, EV’s don’t work without fuel cells. Toyota actually has a hydrogen car and some were sold.
“Japanese auto maker Toyota is to launch a new hydrogen fuel cell car (FCEV) this autumn, adding to the company’s flagship FCEV, the Mirai — despite the new CEO’s plan to massively expand its range of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs).”
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/toyota-unveils-its-first-new-hydrogen-car-in-a-decade-to-go-on-sale-this-autumn/2-1-1433307
Let’s see you get one of those things repaired.
Dennis L.
Like all these alchemists, the only problem would be finding that cubic mile of Pt. You will pray the God Elon to launch his Unicorns to build that cubic mile of Pt.
https://www.quora.com/How-much-would-a-one-metre-cube-of-platinum-weigh-to-the-nearest-ton
A cubic meter of Pt is 12.45 tonnes. I will make it 12.
A cubic mile has about 4.168+e9 cubic meters. I will make it 4+e9, or 4 billion.
It will take 48 billion tonnes to have your mythic cubic mile of Pt. Quite a lot of unicorns will be needed.
Let’s see. Your beloved starship is about 5000 tonnes. So, it will take maybe 800 million of your starships to just have the same weight as your cubic mile of Pt.
Of course I know you will still hold on to your myths. But unfortunately I am a numbers guy, and I have just proved how infeasible your idea is.
Hillary Rodham Clinton had many faults, and she also had many enemies, but she was the last person who had any chance of unifying the country.
She would have assumed a dictatorial power when the Covid thing would have started, and although may would have hated her policies, it would have at least continued the domination of USA all over the fields.
Trump has some good points and some bad points but he could not unify the country, which is now split in two colors of various pieces, like Belgium which has one king, two languages and two separate countries for all practical purposes.
And his rule made sure no leader will ever be able to really unify the country again, which leads to the unnecessary dissipation of resources.
To reach the next level of civ all resources have to be concentrated at the top, something we almost got despite of all the mistakes back in 1914-15, except for Chucky, his 400/200 Worcestershires and the Canadian backwoodsmen the next year.
Blessings be upon Chucky.
Chucky knew you can not ultimately violate the laws of physics. He was wise beyond his years.
The correct word to the ‘brave’ limeys is not “national hero”.
Jt s “enemy against civilization”.
another week of 2024, and another post keeping alive the precious memory of Chucky.
Chucky comes in second only to Sasha in OFW lore.
Without him, the standard of living in the advanced countries would have remained low as order returned in Europe as if nothing had happened, and the ranks of Oxford, Cambridge, etc would have been closed to descendants of forest rangers like Robert Firth, who would have ended his days as a teacher in some Imperial outpost instead of spreading british propaganda with a PhD from Oxford.
And the third world would still be colonies, sending raw materials to the home country for virtually nothing, with nothing more than meager food for the native workers who would have been quickly replaced when they dropped dead.
And Type I Civ by 2000
With all of Europe twitching before the Russian threat, and USA not in a good shape to bail them out, this is another chance to beat down the “Balance of Power” strategy of London.
A united europe, or at least a more-or-less united europe, would have led the world to a much higher state than now, including Type I Civilization. ‘
Countries like Poland and Czechia are completely irrelevant for such, despite of the interesting interlude of Marie Curie Sklodowska whose only talent was snaring nerdish French physicists, a trait inherited by her daughter.
London’s Balance of Power strategy only benefited North America, which had too many elements not really conducive with advancing civilization. The cancer grew and grew, and finally manifested itself on Nov 2016, which , I have to say, was the point of no return for Modern Civ.
Europe shifted from a regional hegemon (eg. Rome, Holy Roman Empire) to a ‘balance of power’ with the Peace/ Treaty of Westphalia that ended the religious wars in Europe.
It let states have their own ‘sovereignty’ within a ‘balance of power’ that keeps the peace in a relative way and allows the states to develop. On your view that should perhaps be the ‘Treaty of WestFailure’.
For all of your complaints, a particular state, be it Germany or whoever, was simply strong enough to establish let alone maintain regional hegemony or it was not. If they were all too weak, or just balanced each other out, then that is just how it went.
Your complaint is that some other state did not help them to overcome their weakness and to establish regional hegemony? Is that realistic?
Great Britain, now no longer that great Britain, financed one country after another to fight it out so there would be no hegemon in the mainland, although without a strong navy they would not have been able to invade the island.
If it did not meddle around with European affairs there would have been some kind of United Europe which, unlike USA with its ultimately unassimilable black and hispanic populations, would have achieved much greater things with all of its resources, and probably with resources from other parts of the world, reaching distances far away.
Woodrow WIlson cheating the German gains in the East so the Poles and Czechs (slovaks did nothing but took a free ride) could have their own countries was a very stupid diplomatic move since it now gave lots of resources to peoples who didn’t know what to do with that, and the province of Bohmen, the richest province of Austrian Empire, quickly became an insignificant backwater. No Czechs attended the premier of Mozart’s Don Giovanni at the city of Prag, just like no hispanics attended the movie premieres in Hollywood’s Golden Age, except as janitors and handymen; they took Bohmen for nothing and , well, made it a city of beer halls.
Donetsk, which was called Yuzovka after the Welsh investor John Hughes who had founded it, would have been German now (or under some state with German influence) if Wilson didn’t listen to the Polish and Czech lobbies. I have said that I would rather have no Poland and no Czechoslovakia than give all the resources in the East to the Russians, an Asiatic people.
Makes me go hmmm . Gasoline surplus in the US is gone .
https://twitter.com/HFI_Research/status/1770526243156537375/photo/1
Now is the time of the changeover from “winter blend” to “summer blend.” I wonder if this is making the indications look worse than otherwise.
In the winter, part of natural gas liquids can be added to the mixture, stretching supply. These “liquids” tend to evaporate in warm weather, so they are omitted in summer. This tends to reduce supply and increase the selling price for gasoline.
I notice that there is a shift at this time of year, every year.
winter blend is friendly to shale oil. You can pour all that inexpensive, unuseful butane into it. your mileage will vary (as in, it will be smaller).
I agree. Winter blend is a good way to use up unwanted butane. It doesn’t help milage, but it keeps the price of gasoline down in winter. In winter, there is a double problem of higher cost inputs (on average) plus lower total output (missing the butane). And summer has historically been when people wanted to drive the farthest.
In 2006, at the peak of it, we had 70,3 mbd of conventional crude oil (minus condensate) production.
In 2016, we had 69,6 mbd.
In 2019 we had 66,5 mbd.
In 2022 we had 63,5 mbd.
Let’s calculate the decline between 2006-2022 (in the end of this year, 2022, oil production had pretty much recovered from the sharp decline during the peak of the pandemic, from 88 mbd in May 2020, up to 101,6 mbd in November 2022, see the chart in [2] and [3]):
I divide the period 2006-2022 into two periods of 8 years (this, periods of 8 years, was also essential to my book 2023 about global oil exports). In 2014, at half the time into this age, the level of conventional crude oil minus condensate was at about the same level as in 2016, at 69,6 mbd.
1) 2006-2014: From 70,3-69,6. A decline of 0,7 mbd, or 1 % for the whole period, on average ~0,09 mbd per year, which is 90 000 mbd per year.
2) 2014-2022: From 69,6-63,5. A decline of 6,1 mbd, or ~8,7 % for the whole period, on average 0,76 mbd per year. So in 2022 we lost at least 760 000 barrels of conventional crude minus condensate in only one year!! Probably as much as 1 mbd!! So fast the decline goes nowadays! And it is even worse now!!!
Then to the future projection. 8,7 is 8,7 times 1. So in the second period above, the oil decline was 8,7 times faster than in the first period. So this means that in the third period,
3) 2022-2030, the decline, if it follows the trend, will accelerate 8,7 times the decline in 2). Remember that we are late in the decline period 2006-2030, and when something declines exponentially, i.e. with an accelerated rate, which global conventional crude oil (minus condensate) does right now, the decline is really, really fast in the end, and catches one with surprise (I have to concede that I have trouble believing in my own calculations in this blogpost). Remember that in the previous periods, civilization was not in collapse (and anyway the decline soon got steep), which it is now and will continue to be in the 3) period, which makes the decline very, very steep. If the decline could accelerate 8,7 times between 2006 and 2022, what then when civilization and the oil industry goes into its collapse phase, which accelerates exponentially, i.e. at an accelerated rate of decline?
8,7 X 6,1 mbd is ~53 mbd. 63,5-53 mbd is 10,5 mbd. So in 2030 we have 10,5 mbd of global conventional crude oil minus condensate left. 53 mbd in 8 years, it’s on average a ~6,6 mbd annual decline. In the end of the 2022-2030 period the decline rate is above 10 mbd a year, which is the natural decline rate of the global oil production today, according to Steve St. Angelo (more exactly 10,5 %). And in that year 2030 the decline goes so fast that we lose all the remaining oil reserves in one year, so it all ends in 2031.
If the global conventional crude oil minus condensate production reaches its terminal end in 2031, one could assume that global conventional crude oil minus condensate exports reaches its end way before that, perhaps in 2027, at the earliest. Because the decline rate of global oil exports is much higher than that of overall global conventional oil (minus condensate) production, and falls at an accelerated rate of decline. This again confirms my calculations in my book about global oil exports.
P.S.: Andrii Zvorygin has a very remarkable graph (which I think he has made together with John Peach) in the video chat above, 1.14.04 into the video, about the remaining oil reserves, where he shows that we have only 5-16 years of conventional oil reserves left (2PCS). 8,55 years of 1P (proven) reserves, and 8,41 years of 2P (probable) reserves.
This 5 year figure is the most radical I have heard of, and it really makes me lyrical and hopeful.
[1] Try to do a research on images for charts on the global conventional crude oil minus condensate, and you will find tons of meaningless, totally irrelevant and stupid information, most of it very, very outdated. Information that seldom in any way help us to prepare for the END. So bad the search engines are, still. And so stupid the peak oil community was and is. You don’t, for example, find very much useful information on the end of global oil exports .
The link
https://skogslars.blogg.se/2024/march/modelling-the-accelerated-decline-of-global-conventional-crude-oil-minus-condensate-production-with-data-from-steve-st-angelo-2.html
Here is the timepoint in the presentation.
https://youtu.be/fQT2ZjyY6as?t=4465
I didn’t watch the whole thing, but I don’t see him discuss the data source. I also don’t know how he gets 5-16 years remaining if his 1P reserves are already 8 years. Whatever.
Oops I guess it’s Rystad Energy
Ivan , the argument and calculation is based on conventional oil which peaked in 2006 . He than goes on to to calculate the decline till 2022 . His 1 P calculation is based on conventional crude only and not C+C .
Does C+C include fracking but not NGPL? I can never keep this stuff straight.
Fracking produces both very light oil, which is included in C+C, as well as materials included in NGPLs. There typically is natural gas, as well. Often, this natural gas is hardly worth capturing. Producers would prefer to flare it, if the could get away with it.
Yes , C+C includes shale oil produced by fracking .
Thanks for your replies, but what I find confusing about your answers is that I’ve found definitions online that describe “condensate” as equivalent to “natural gas liquids”, but I think you’re saying “C+C” doesn’t include natural gas liquids.
If you look at the US International Energy Exhibits, such as here:
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1698796800000
You will find one category called “Crude oil including lease condensate” and another category called “NGPL”
When we look up lease condensate, the EIA says
https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=Lease
Lease condensate: Light liquid hydrocarbons recovered from lease separators or field facilities at associated and non-associated natural gas wells. Mostly pentanes and heavier hydrocarbons. Normally enters the crude oil stream after production.
In other words, these are the natural gas liquids that come up from specifically oil wells, rather than being chilled out of natural gas.
Usually, NGPL’s are chill-out of natural gas that is produced.
Thanks Gail, that’s a long-needed (for me) clarification on the matter.
I agree that conventional crude oil supplies are low, and falling quickly.
For quite a while, we have been trying to make do, with additional unconventional oil- tight oil from shale, which tends to be very light; very heavy oil, and oil from the deep sea. Also, more natural gas liquids, which are not oil, but the heavier parts of them can be blended into winter gasoline supplies.
The article talks about oil exports disappearing. I think that a whole lot of other things start disappearing, as well. Long distance transport of goods tends to disappear. Exports of food products and other goods requiring lots of oil for transport start to fall. Countries without goods to trade end up worse off.
Most services aren’t worth trading; instead, they will tend to fall in quantity.
Just some food for thought . Ukraine has knocked out Russian refineries which produced 600,000 barrels of diesel per day . This means 2,5 mbpd of crude . Russian exports are under sanctions . Where is this crude ? Is it in the black market and keeping the price low ?
That is an interesting question: If Russia can’t refine the oil, it will likely export the oil in an unrefined state. Where is it going?
Russian oil produces a disproportionate amount of diesel, so perhaps the amount of crude added to the world market is smaller than 2.5 mbpd of crude.
China and India both have a lot of refinery capacity. India has been listed as a top recipient of Russian oil in the past; I would expect that they would get more.
The losers will be Europeans, I expect. The refined diesel will never get back to them.
Definitely India and China taking as good as all of it. According to the below article they often change position (1+2) through the year and Russia are quite content with that, as they don’t appear to be bothered about where in Asia they ship it. I would guess if that’s true, that they have other willing buyers waiting, if sales to India or China were to drop from time to time(unlikely).
https://m.vz.ru/economy/2024/3/18/1258262.html
Playing the bypass sanction game it would seem and all three doing very well out of it. You could add Turkey into that group as well, although I believe they are pretending to be playing along with the sanction game at the moment and that will come with a hefty price tag for the West.
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/sanctioned-sovcomflot-tankers-switch-tactics-as-they-discharge-cargoes-in-china/2-1-1613320
LNG next up for sanctions and that goes almost exclusively to Europe. Qatar Gas has been building up a fleet and has just put in huge orders for new ships. Who gets what from where is changing at alarming speed. Power and privilege to penury, in a few short years(or months) for some unexpecting nations before this decade is done.
Interesting!
An hour ago . 😂
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/us-urges-ukraine-to-halt-strikes-on-russian-1711095364.html
Panic attack .
https://twitter.com/AlertaNews24/status/1771111964418167129?s=20
Ravi, I enjoy your posts but in a negative exponential case you have the same decline every year (say, -2% a year, or the logarithmic derivative is a constant, or P(t)=P_Oe^{-t/a}). P is petrol (per day or per year).You assume a Gaussian decline,
P(t)=P_0e^{-(t/a)^2}
I concur that one of the model presented in that talk, the convolution of ever steeper gaussians, will give you an approximate Gaussian trend. Of course even I do not expect the decline to be Gaussian. Davidina certainly does not.
I expect plenty of NA oil in 2031, US plus Canada and probably the return of VZ shipments up here to NA.
2031, oh I hope to live to see it, oil depletion is exciting.
“We now calculate the Permian has also produced half of its reserves and expect sequential growth to turn negative within the next few months. With a growing degree of confidence, we expect 2024 will be the peak in Permian production. Over the last fifteen years, the US shales have represented all non-OPEC growth. In the previous five years, the Permian has dominated US shales. If correct, we are entering an unprecedented period of tightness in global oil markets.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Is-US-Shale-Production-Finally-Nearing-Its-Peak.html
Why Mike Shellman is not invited to CERA week .
https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/5fcbcbb3ee90ec001721308c/ceraweek-of-lies?postId=65fcde2dc9de440010f60ff6&origin=notification&utm_campaign=7a672617-13d9-4270-b864-e4f6037920a4&utm_source=so&utm_medium=mail&utm_content=e2ec8a76-4296-46da-9c77-5e672b05c3c1&cid=fa335351-37bb-44a6-9899-f8c34b4a0f81
Just shedding some light . US produced 13 mbpd . Out of this only 4mbpd is conventional ( 2.5 mbpd onshore +0.5 mbpd Alaska + 1.0mbpd offshore GOM) . The rest of 9mbpd is LTO , NGL etc . Algeria’s production is totally NGL , Qatar is totally NGL , Iran is 25-30% NGL , Russia also exports a lot of NGL . Many other countries are also NGL . As fields decline the GOR ( Gas to Oil ratio) increases dramatically .
the 5 or 6 mbpd of NGL production in the US is not included in the 13+ mbpd of black goo crude.
counting “all liquids”, the US is producing up near 20 mbpd.
the data is there and it’s real.
Lars who made the original post was refuted ( called absurd) by Dennis at POB . This is the response from Lars .
“Absurd? You forget the ongoing collapse of industrial civilization and what it does for the oil industry. You forget the exponentially declining EROEI (i.e. a decline at an accelerated rate). You forget the exponential nature of Global Heating, and all its self-reinforcing feedback loops. You forget the coming resource wars and WW3. You forget that the decline of oil is a self-reinforcing feedback loop. You forget almost everything in the real world, and just stare on data and models. This is not wise. It blinds you. You should account for the real world. And the real world is in fact collapsing. We could all be dead by 2030-2036, because the very soon approaching BOE (Blue Ocean Event in the Arctic Sea) and the release of the ticking methane time bomb (from the permafrost on the bottom of the Arctic Sea). This is a real, very real possibility, and my model reflects this, which almost no other Peak Oil model does. I’m somewhat like a Guy McPherson or a Sam Carana in the Peak Oil debate. These very learned climate scientists always say that the end of humanity could be just a few years away, because of the methane time bomb.
The exponential function is one of the most difficult things to believe in. It’s almost always ignored and almost never understood. It always catches us with BIG surprise. My calculations in the following blogpost just follows the trendline hitherto, nothing more, and the trendline is that the decline rate of conventional crude oil minus condensate has doubled 8,7 times every 8 year:
(Byoblu tv news)
Pope Francis insists.
In his last book (just published by Harper Collins of News Corp.
( https://newscorp.com/ ) he says that not taking Covid vax is a suicide act.
With all the scientific evidence that we have by now, my impression is that he is seeking support from financial big Funds.
Or maybe he is trying to have help to cover all the open scandals for sex abuses on children of the Catholic Church.
I have to say that Christian Catholic Church is looking very bad in comparison to the other Christian Churches, such as: Protestant, Anglican, Orthodox, Coptic..
On this regard we could remind the ‘cleansing of the Temple’ scene..
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleansing_of_the_Temple
What a bad end.
https://www.byoblu.com/2024/03/21/tg-flash-byoblu24-5/
No wonder people leave the Catholic Church.
It is normal that religions, as all dissipative structures, follow a pattern of birth, maturity and success, and death. The upcoming social upheaval will also produce intense competition in the religious field, with new religions popping up as you suggested. The winner(s) will enjoy the classical and well established prize for successful religions: beta males enjoying limited consumption, below the lords but well above serfs, without actually doing any energy consuming work.
Christianity, I believe, coupled itself too tightly to the agricultural and feudal era. It recycled itself several times in various service projects for expanding empires, but with the fossil fuels revolution it has been a corpse for far longer than the recent Bergoglio shenanigans. The success of its internal enemies is in large part due to its inability to renew itself. I note the apparent vitality of Iran’s Shia, who went to great lengths to merge Zoroastrian concepts with a more refined version of Islam, resulting in a sturdy yet open minded culture. In christianity too, the best outcomes are where local cultural concepts were adopted and incorporated.
Small island nations are going to be especially hard hit.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cuba-santiago-protests-food-shortages-power-outages/
I am sure that a big part of Cuba’s problem is that it cannot afford imported food and imported oil to operate its electric power plants. Communism is not an efficient method of organization. An island is at risk, regardless.
We just recently heard about Haiti’s problems too. This is not a recent article, but the problems persist.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220721-across-haiti-fuel-shortages-and-power-outages-bring-life-to-a-halt
Tainter in his book has pointed out that island nations are extremely vulnerable to collapse . We are seeing that Sri Lanka, Madagascar , Cuba , Haiti the weak ones going down first . Next in my thought will be the Caribbean’s . Oh , other islands are UK , Australia and New Zealand . Coming shortly to a theatre near you .
Even the islands of Hawaii have issues. The cost of living is very high, and wages aren’t correspondingly higher. Much of the electricity comes from burning oil.
Add , Puerto Rico ?
Puerto Rico seems to have lots of problems, also.
“Heathrow airport in London uses more energy than the whole African nation of Sierra Leone [population ~8.5 million]”
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1770540155335569567
Very interestin. Thanks
I wonder how bitcoin compares.
Also, the hoped for ramp up to support AI.
Whether you like or not, the Winter for most of humanity has arrived.
Some people still delude themselves that things can turn around, but it is too little, too late.
The final chance was around 2015-6 when the West’s military superiority was still unassailable.
all is lost. No matter what some people want to believe, it is over and a huge retreat of civilization is now inevitable.
Stop the Pareto thing. That is so 1900-ish. It is passe and the hordes will just wipe out everything
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPOT:NYSE
Spotify had 2023 revenue of 13.25 billion, negative 500 million in earnings, and a current market cap of 52 billion. You can’t intelligently invest in this market … pricing for these “assets” is just a collective delusion.
People think that they can sell these shares of stock and buy food, clothing, and fuel for their vehicles. Something has to go wrong in this process.
The workers who produce the food, clothing and fuel have to have first priority in getting the output of necessities. Owners of paper assets have to come out behind in this contests. Even owners of high-priced homes have a problem. They can’t count on the sales price funding their retirement.
Agree.
Dennis L.
‘Climate : The Movie’
Worth watching for a balanced perspective.
A good sequel to the earlier Channel 4 documentary ‘The Great Global Warming Swindle’.
https://www.climatethemovie.net/
The front of the movie says “Atmosphere with 400 ppm CO2 is like a barn with 1 coat of red paint.
Atmosphere with 800 ppm CO2 is like a barn with 2 coats of red paint (almost the same).
Tell that to the Insurance industry….let me know their response…
I am an actuary. I do talk to the insurance industry. I will be talking about this at a meeting on May 8 in Atlanta.
Yes, I know you are, bless you…hope you rub elbows with some Florida Industry provides….it’s off the wall gonzo down here…if we get hit by another major storm, I’m afraid it will be all over, unless you are so called self insured., which you can’t be for auto coverage
The increase in insurance claims from natural disasters in Florida has nothing to do with increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide level. But it does have a lot to do with the increase in the amount and the value of real estate being built in Florida.
House prices in the state are rising steeply each year (18.8% year-over-year in 2021, and some markets have seen 30% yoy rises), while the number of homes is also rising as the state’s population continues to increase year after year. The population first hit 2 million people in 1941. It hit 3 million in 1952, 4 million in 1956, 5 million in 1960, 10 million in 1981, 15 million in 1999, and 20 million in 2015.
More people results in more real estate and higher values, which in turn results in more damage and bigger claims when a disaster of a given magnitude strikes. The carbon dioxide level has absolutely nothing to do with it.
Yep, same reason car insurance keeps going up – more complexity and limited spares drives up repair costs.
I had an idea about how to possibly solve our energy problems at least sort of.
You may want to sit down for this..
We go “dark” for 3 days a week using no FFs. Then we turn back on the lights for the other 4 days running BAU.
This would lower our consumption levels dramatically. Lowering Carbon emissions.
This would in theory lower inflation and energy prices by choking off demand.
Think of it like a 3 day fast.
I understand 3 days a week of darkness would be insane to live like that. But it would be better than collapse and infinite darkness. And we could save tons of energy and still live like kings for the majority of the week.
@Mob
Three days in darkness and without heating is not the problem.
Resources get more and more difficult to produce the more they are exploited. Our ancestors walked over the mountains and collected green malachite stones to produce copper. These times are long gone! Then they needed to dig a hole. Meanwhile mines are many kilometres long. Same with coal, oil and other resources.
The more complex extraction is the more complex are the tools needed. At first you start with iron tools for digging, then steam machines for transport, then semiconductors for communication and modelling, then airplanes to get specialists on spot. I don’t dare to think what is needed for offshore drilling.
Now if you cut electricity, children cannot use internet to study – noone owns books anymore. The consequence is, we dont have engineers of tomorrow. Busses and trains wont go, logistics for supermarkets, doctors wont be able to come to their operation rooms. People would die like the flies but undertakers wont be able to be called and to go there. Many machines in the production industry have to run 24/7 or get destroyed, for example in glass production. Shutting down 3 days, means 50% of fertilizers, 50% of agricultural production. Cows cannot be milked, milk cannot be cooled.
We dont have the processes for it. The consequence would be a crash.
What is more this crash would lead to a vicious circle reducing the available fossile energy.
Or do you mean, to impose lockdowns to reduce unnecessary private transport?
If you want to do something: Get some books about agriculture, medicine, chemistry, biology, knitting, higher education, so you can look up things when internet breaks down. Used books are really cheap at the moment. Get some organical seeds and get some gardening experience. Harvest your own seeds. Start with some herbs on your window panel. Get some rabbits. Get out of the city. Look for natural water supply. Start a larger garden and get more and more independent. Get some sheep or goats. Get some experience in forging or woodwork. Try to build a little garden house or shelter, that can be maintained without fossile fuels. Have a good life and care for kids or grandkids. Play guitar and know some good songs. Make a community. Find processes that dont require fossile energy or industrial complexity. Teach them to the kids.
In case you consider yourself “old”. What is needed, is mental stability. What is needed, is knowledge. How to name the birds, the plants, the minerals. How to make a knife in the garden. How to make a wooden bowl, a basket, a rope, a jacket for the baby, some optical lenses. Which herb to use against bacterias, pain, anxiety. How to burn a watertight pot of clay in the backyard. How to dry mushrooms and meat.
And if you are in a wheelchair, think about it and get some helps for experiments: now we try to maintain a temperature above 650°C for 12 hours. Pay them! Make fun with them!
Either we have this knowledge and experience in a few years or we won’t.
Just to shake the a** like Kim Kardashian won’t be of any help in the near future.
Then they needed to dig a hole. Meanwhile mines are many kilometres long. Same with coal, oil and other resources.
It’s the same everywhere. No reindustrialisation is possible post collapse.
What a great idea no harm in trying new ways of conservation
I would point out that we need food and water every day. If we don’t use fossil fuels, we don’t treat our water supply. There is no way of heating water to kill pathogens or to cook food except burning stored wood or charcoal.
There can be very immediate, direct impacts. People using oxygen compressors to provide a higher level of oxygen to breathe discover themselves without enough oxygen.
I remember seeing a video somewhere many places can not shut down and restart…must operate 24 hours 7 days a week or kaput…like factories that make glass or smelt metals…their ovens can not cool down but after a number of years get replaced
Flat glass is made in a continuous process which uses molten metal, tin I think, as the base for the sheet of glass.
Better yet, scare people into staying at home. They will catch some dread disease if they go out in public. This is still working to some extent with the elderly. They have figured out that they can get groceries delivered, for example.
If the energy grid shut down how would it get restarted again? I don’t think it’s a simple case of flicking a switch.
Keep the essentials running of course.
Think of it this way.
We have a car with a full tank, but we need to travel 10 times what it can deliver. So, the best thing might be to just drive as minimal as possible and pull over and go camping every 100 miles then just keep pushing it as fast as possible.
At least until we’re not solely dependent on the tank of fuel.
Watch for a “black swan” event around April 8 and the full solar eclipse (which is a non event in actuality)……..like corona was used you may see an attempt at grid shut down in the usa. It is bizarre but it is possible.
Lets just see what the eastern seaboard will do if the internet and electronics in general stops…….
Trial run for cataclysm
The electric grid runs on inertia. In essence you need to keep stuff rotating to generate the correct frequency (e.g. 50 Hz, 60 Hz, depending upon where you live). Fuel tanks can sit idle, the electric grid can’t.
tell that to Quebec and upper New York State…..they beg to differ……
They went through it in recent past…..and that was just a mild solar hiccup
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2024/03/129_370454.html
Samsung, LG and SK Hynix suspend construction of chip and battery plants in the US due to drastically rising costs. I imagine these projects will never get off the ground. Reindustrialisation is not possible.
All is waste .
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/03/20/intel-to-get-23-billion-in-government-grants-loans-plus-25-billion-investment-tax-credits-to-invest-100-billion-in-the-us-after-wasting-94-billion-on-share-buybacks-in-15-years/
Sorry only headline readable . $ 1.3 billion solar cell project cancelled .
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-20/chinese-solar-manufacturer-cancels-1-3b-factory-amid-price-war?embedded-checkout=true
I think part of what is happening is that the companies are starting to discover the cost of production is much higher than expected. One problem that I expect most of them will have is that they will need to draw a huge amount of electricity, but that electricity won’t really be available. There may also be other bottlenecks, such as adequate water supply, and adequate supply of other materials. And wages of less-educated workers have been rising.
Plastics Contain Thousands More Chemicals Than Thought, and Most Are Unregulated, Report Finds
A new database catalogs 16,000 chemicals found in plastics and identifies more than 4,200 that are potentially hazardous to human health and the environment
Will Sullivan Daily Correspondent
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/plastics-contain-thousands-more-chemicals-than-thought-and-most-are-unregulated-report-finds-180983967/
Plastics contain thousands of chemicals that are potentially hazardous to human health and may leach into the environment or food—but the vast majority of them are not currently regulated, according to a new report and database funded by the Norwegian Research Council.
The report, released last week, expands the number of known chemicals in plastics from 13,000 to 16,000. Despite about 6 percent of these being subject to global regulations, more than a quarter are thought to be toxic, the researchers found.
Maybe Eddie can chime in about this …is it related to the jab I wonder?
Governments would like to regulate everything. The only people who can work on this are people who are trained in industry, and who will go back to industry.
Even if a terrible problem is noted, don’t expect much to happen. It is just like Big Pharmaceutical Companies.
Thanks Gail, I don’t expect it because they knew about ..
Just like this too
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-sea-surface-temperature-evidence-human.amp
This is very clear…and we as a species can programmed in one setting..full speed ahead…
>> Maybe Eddie can chime in about this …is it related to the jab I wonder?
I kind of like not having to scroll past his endless stream of comments.
Isn’t that nice?
Oh, can’t I taunt him just a little bit…you know he’s coming back
Somehow the world keeps going forward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMIRhOXAjYk
Meat starts at 10:30, robots and then his latest computer, AI, not that big, chips have a billion transistors on them, latest have 50B transistors.
In the beginning, shows a prototype board, $10B, takes money to make money.
I watched it twice. Some things are moving so very fast, the problems will be solved, social problems are going to be a problem. We will deal with them.
Huang left high school at 16, off to college. I have seen and been in class with kids who when most are graduating from high school, they have all their math thru diff eq., physics, chemistry and I am not sure what else. Last guy I saw was off to MIT.
In this presentation Huang mentions copilot frequently, I like it, scratching around the edges. Omniverse is mentioned and demonstrated.
In a way, Huang’s wealth might be equated with energy, information seems to have a price.
If you are a nerd,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EIwhvqCX1c
at 3:42 energy is mentioned and quantified, at 4:09 new server is mentioned, less energy, small, put the whole thing in space.
We are solving problems.
Dennis L.
Let’s wait and see what really happens. I’m not sure we have the electricity to make and run these boards. And there is the garbage in, garbage out problem.
In specific applications, such as oil extraction, something like this might be helpful. But widespread application may use too much electricity.
Another informercial, with its CEO self congratulating for its bloated stock price.
The megafunds promote one company or another just to create market, and they can also kill a company at their whim.
Using your logic, they don’t have to solve any problems, and they are not solving anything. They just have to give the impression of solving problems and money will flow in for a while and they retire to golden pasture by the time their jig is about to be up.
These actors can say whatever in their well produced shows, and don’t have to deliver anything. Next.
kul,
An old man scratching around the edges of Copilot, it works fairly well and is free. For syntax in programming it is wonderful, computers are very Old Testament.
Starship launched, it came down like NASA rockets of old; next one launches in 4-6 weeks. This is a private company, very deep pockets are in a hurry; they have deep pockets because they make good bets.
AI and Starship are coming on line at almost the same time; coincidence? The universe spent a great deal of effort making spaceship earth, there is a very old adage, “It is not nice to fool with mother nature.” We are going to be fine, but it will not be easy, some of us will make it, some of us will not; the universe wants us to be here and does its best, but it is not perfect, never has been. Omniscience is a human narrative not a fact of reality.
Dennis L.
I didn’t say I told you so when the Starship thing disintegrated since it is not enugh. It is just a raindrop in a bucket, a non event. The big pockets are only interested upon immediate profits only. Otherwise there would be much less restrictions about space projects.
You will choose to believe what makes you feel good, but all of these are just, again, too little, too late. Or, a day late, a dollar short.
The universe does not give a shit about humanity. It already showed it preferred the Serbs and the Czechs having their crappy countries than bringing the West to a higher level back in 1914. It will be perfectly happy to have a planet populated only by octopi.
Species come and go, and once a species goes away another comes. The universe will not give a crap, like the rat experiment guy giving no crap when all the rats he raised perished.
Some of us would like to think that humans are somewhat favored. But there can be big drops in human populations.
I suspect we misunderstand time and space rather badly. This seems to be a place for souls to experience 3D realm…..outside 3D realms time seems to not exist……so earth as a soul repository can go through massive upheavals and still be a place of souls.
I operate completely on intuition as to behaviors I should manifest in this realm. I am not gifted with second sight as were some of my recent ancestors….but I always “know” what needs to be done….and I do it.
It shocks some people here at some of my decisions I make……..some appear to be “asking for trouble”……..
Becoming a lion is not easy or safe. may the realms in the next world have easier hunting.
For what little that is worth….it does not really make me “feel” better……its a job.
“computers are very Old Testament” Good one.
Some AGIs will have the soul of a poet.
We have had all this hoo-ha in the UK about Princess Kate’s photoshopped image. This reminded me of a far more notorious one, that few people know about. It was part of the media coverage of the 7/7 terrorist bombings in London in July 2005.
Here you can read the “official” version of 7/7 on Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_July_2005_London_bombings
However, an Englishman living in the Republic of Ireland analysed the MSM coverage and found many holes in it. (We OFW’ers would call it a false flag, and a particularly wicked one). He felt he had a moral duty to alert the UK authorities of his findings, so he created a video to back up his claims. The UK authorities duly had him extradited from Ireland to stand trial for “attempting to pervert the course of justice”. Eventually he managed to fight back and distributed his video to the jury members. They were impressed by his evidence and found him not guilty.
The part of his video dealing with the photoshopped image of the alleged terrorist occurs from 37:12 to 47:33. There is much food for thought in this video. I was working in central London at the time of 7/7, and I was very nervous in the days immediately afterwards while commuting there.
7/7 Ripple Effect — The Truth
https://rumble.com/v35k28e-77-ripple-effect-the-truth.html
I was working in central London at the time of 7/7, and I was very nervous in the days immediately afterwards while commuting there.
Then you didn’t understand that the actual odds of you being blown up by terrorists on any given day are so small as to be virtually zero.
Tell that to the survivors who had their legs blown off, Withnail-in-head. And to the family of the innocent Brazilian man who was shot dead by London police in error. In truth I soon grew tired of being scared.
“111 7/7 Ripple Effect 2 The truth behind the 2005 London Bombings 06-07-2012 Watch
109 Muad’Dib 7/7 Ripple Effect 2, The Hill of Tara 15-06-2012 Watch
95 Richard D. Hall 2011 Tour, filmed at Weston-Super-Mare 16-03-2012 Watch
87 Tony Farrell 7/7 London bombings & Tony Farrells’s appeal hearing 20-01-2012 Watch
72 Nick Kollerstrom 7/7 London bombings, live audience 16-09-2011 Watch
67 Muad’Dib Muad’Dib talking about his May 2011 trial. 22-07-2011 Watch
65 Tony Farrell 7/7 London Bombings, Intelligence Analyst speaks out 08-07-2011 Watch
59 Osama Bin Laden 7/7, Bin Laden, Lawful Rebellion 03-06-2011 Watch
56 Nick Kollerstrom, Part 2 7/7 London Bombings 06-05-2011 Watch
55 Nick Kollerstrom, Part 1 7/7 London Bombings 29-04-2011 Watch
49 RDH & Kevin West Islamic Uprising, 7/7 bombings & “Beyond Knowledge II” 25-03-2011 Watch
32 Muad’Dib London 2005 bombings, justice, Muad’Dib hearing 26-11-2010 Watch
11 Maddi7/7 London bombings, false flag terrorism
https://www.richplanet.net/richp_genre_menu.php?gen=2
I wasn’t aware there was a Ripple Effect 2.
I am going to have to watch this now.
And of course, there is also Ludicrous Diversion….
A half hour, four part documentary that defines major flaws in the governments story about the events on the day of 7th July 2005. 7/7 Was an INSIDE JOB.
On the 7th of July 2005 London was hit by a series of explosions. You probably think you know what happened that day. But you dont.
since the conspiraholic in chief was re-abducted by another set of aliens, (the first lot wanted nothing more to do with him) there has been a distinct and welcome lack of fakery and conspiromania on ofw–instead, comments have been well balanced, normal and without faux obscenities.
new commenters have appeared, and stayed, for that reason i suspect.
long may it so remain
Yes, you just continue to ignore the evidence and stay off-topic, Norman. You can’t teach an old dog new tricks – or knowledge – it’s true.
i take it zemi—that ”topic” is whatever it is your are ranting on about at any given moment?
Global heating?
“ranting” ? You’re being rude, Norman. Pack it in, or I’ll tell your partner to put you on the naughty step again. You’re turning into the new FE. You make comments on links, sight unseen.
At least Gail has the decency to read linked articles and watch linked videos before commenting on them. You might try following her example.
Please explain without referring to youtube videos what you believe happened on 7/7 in London and why.
hologram of a bus being blown up—you can be certain of that
“Please explain without referring to youtube videos what you believe happened on 7/7 in London and why.”
As you know, the British public was turning decisively against the Iraq war at that time. The powers that be, most likely including MOSSAD, decided to instigate a false flag (i.e. a series of atrocities blamed on Isla-mists) and scare the public into thinking that the Iraq campaign and such-like were justified. As we all know, these campaigns were all taking place in the oil-rich Middle East, and the Western authorities were well aware that peak oil was looming.
The so called terrorists are thought to have been assets for MI5 and MI6, but somebody (we don’t know who) decided to sacrifice them as “patsies” in this false flag. The Ripple Effect video shows a New Zealand report, quickly retracted, about shootings by the authorities in London Dockland of “suicide bombers” – who evidently did not get to commit suicide.
lol
i dont recall commenting on a link—though possible—please remind me
new FE?—thats worth a big lol–i could never compete in the BS stakes
i dont convert naughty words into numbers because i’m too insecure to use them as they should be used.—and when.—as, i suspect, are you zemi?
i use them precisely, where they are meant to be used, not in everyday language currency —i can put the english language together better than that.—i do not need to indulge i wholesale BS to impress anyone.
May I present Rantin’ Rovin’ Robin?
I may? Well then, I present Rantin’ Rovin’ Robin, and autobiographic ditty by Scotland’s national poet, the one and only Rabbie Burns!
I always had doubts about the veracity of the 7/7 narrative. Lots of aspects never made sense.
Such as the Peter Power aspect?
Oh, that’s easily explained. Just ask Norman. He can explain everything.
MI5 telephone call https://www.bitchute.com/video/rRnYBWTeNuJN/
This is the sort of thing that is now openly being said in USA by Republican think-tanks in response to Macron’s call last week for NATO troops to enter UKR….
…. that Europe must be insane if they think that they will drag USA into a war with Russia, that Russia will be free to attack them if they start it, and that Europe in that scenario ‘will be treated as enemies of the American people’….
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/what-do-you-mean-we-kemosabe/
The U.S. May Need to Maneuver Around NATO Article 5
…. Why do we listen to these lunatics and treat them as our equals within NATO? Why are we to take people seriously when they claim they want to give a country with 6,000 nuclear weapons the Carthage treatment? The total combined population of the three Baltic states and Finland is under 12 million people. What do you mean “we,” kemosabe?
Of course the main culprit of this sudden flare up is France….
…. There is a simple way to stop this nonsense. The president of the U.S. and his NSC have so far specified their refusal to send troops to Ukraine under any circumstances, outside of NATO being under direct attack. This situation demands they go a little further. If any Baltic country decides to go to war with Russia, alongside France, they are free to do so. Any retaliatory attack on their home-soil or military assets in the high seas, however disproportionate, will not automatically invoke Article 5 of NATO.
And that should be made explicitly clear to both the West and East Europeans. NATO is a defensive alliance. Once you’re in the club, you’re in it. But if you open the doors and try to punch someone outside, only to expect the other club members to go and defend you, then apologies, but you’re on your own. Clubs have walls. You can stay safe inside, on the condition that you don’t pick a fight outside the club.
President Trump was correct. We should not defend anyone who is cavalier about collective security and seeks a nuclear confrontation. Given that the president’s ethical obligations are primarily towards defending his people and keeping them safe, that includes minimizing the chances of a nuclear conflict. Time for the protectorates to internalize that. If they want to drag America to war, or initiate a nuclear conflict, they will be treated as enemies of the American people.
From the American side I see it as the US trying to sucker France to throw some nukes at Russia, say Moscow and St Petersburg. Along with Poland flying some nuke loaded F35s in to Russia. The EU will take the counter nuke attack.
Then China and US can fight it out for the fossil fuels.
That would be tragic, Ed.
I hope it will not be like this.
In my view, looking in a positive way, maybe Conservatives understand limits and don’t want to escalate with Russia.
They see limits also on the institution of Nato itself.
The funny thing is that current European leaders are behaving like this because they want to appear good fellas to the current Democratic gov. but they have not understood that, if things changes in US (but also in case not), they will have put themselves and their population, on the brink of the abyss.
Unless ‘policy’ has changed?
“By the time you got to the first Bush administration, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they came out with a national defense policy and strategic policy. What they basically said is that we’re going to have wars against what they called much weaker enemies and these have to be carried out quickly and decisively or else there will be embarrassment—a way of saying that popular reaction is going to set in. And that’s the way it’s been. It’s not pretty, but it’s some kind of constraint.” ?
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/03/noam-chomsky-populist-groundswell-u-s-elections-future-humanity.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29
It’s my understanding colonial powers provoke their adversaries into attacking so empire can cry self defense then go in as the ‘good’ guys. It’s a clever way to take resources with the general support of the people back home. Doubt we’ll see anything overtly done by the west to kick off a wider conflict but they’ll keep pushing until something breaks.
Blockade Japan and then act surprised by Peal Harbor. Keep pushing and slapping them until they swing on you.
But it isn’t like Japan was a totally innocent party, though, is it? Japan was attempting to take over China, Southeast Asia and—less well known now— parts of the Soviet Union.
There was a significant military conflict between Japan and the Soviet Union in 1939, known as the Battle of Khalkhin Gol or the Nomonhan Incident. It took place from May to September 1939 along the border between Mongolia (which was under Soviet influence) and Japanese-controlled Manchuria.
It ended in a decisive Soviet victory, with heavy losses on both sides. The defeat had a significant impact on Japan’s military strategy and its decision to focus on other regional objectives, such as its expansion into Southeast Asia and the Pacific.
Also interesting that back in 1853, the Americans sent ships to Japan to force the country to end its isolation from the rest of the world, which was a self-imposed blockade, and less than 90 years later, the Americans were blockading the country and doing their best to isolate it again.
Japanese people will not say this out loud, but in private, they will often complain that, all in all, the bulk of Americans are a very unreliable, inconsistent, and irritating people. Always boasting, always preaching, always telling you their life story and their opinions on everything, and always poking their nose in other countries’ business.
The most recent glaring example was Ambassador Rahm Emmanuel trying to ram through laws on LGBTQ rights and, by implication, same-sex marriage in Japan. And the Japanese, effectively said, “We’ll be buggered if we are going to stand for that.”
There are still a lot of rules, customs, ways of thinking and perceiving that are going to go into the bin before the Japanese, who are an extremely conservative people, will consent to the sort of radical reforms currently being urged on them. They haven’t even gotten around to allowing married women to retain their maiden names yet, unless the husband agrees to be adopted into her family and changes his name. One marriage—one surname is the rule. So they are still a long way from accepting one marriage—two husbands, or —two wives.
I’m not claiming Japan was innocent. But they did not commit an act of war against the US until the US committed one against them. I’m simply against the falsification of history; this is not an attempt to make the Japanese of WW2 out to be some good guys. It was just an example.
Of course, I quite understand that.
There are no truly innocent parties in war….
… apart from the Israelis, of course, who are as pure as the driven snow and have the most moral army evah.
Careful now, France, Latvia, UK , US and other “tough guy” NATO members. It’s one thing to talk tough and assume that your soldiers will fight as long as they perceived Russia as being a rag-tag 3rd tier military force like Iraqis or Afghans where you could set up your buffet table behind the lines and enjoy cocktail hour after each raid, smug in the superiority of your weaponry and numbers against goat herders. Sure, enlistment into the armed forces was a given back in the good old days, because everyone wanted to get in on the government pork with the nice benefits, paychecks, and pensions. They assumed they would never really be put in harm’s way.
All that has changed now especially as the real number of UKR casulties surfaces. While I would think any man worth his salt would stand up and fight against a perceived invader (easy for me to say since I have never served in the military and at 69, could never realistically be drafted as I would hamper the column) tens of thousands of Ukranian men have fled their country to avoid being pressed into the meat grinder.
I am sure that Polish, Romania, Latvian, French, British, and American servicemen will rethink staying in the service in view of the shocking staggering losses on the Ukrainian side, and it is no surprise that the US at least, is having difficulty meeting recruitment goals.
My casual acquaintance, 26, at the gym was with the 82nd Airborne out of Fort Brag, NC ( now called Fort Liberty- go figure). He had completed 8 jumps when on his last jump, the drop was low, bad weather, and had problems with timely chute deployment, resulting in back injury and bilateral hip dislocations from a hard landing.
He informed me that when he left a few years ago about half of the troops said they would never fire on US citizens- but half would. He did not dispute my contention that the jab requirement was also a stealth selection process to determine which soldiers would comply with orders like taking the jab, and which ones would not, like those who would refuse to fire upon their own citizens in the event of a civil war. Anecdotal, I know, but still, he was adamant that he would never advise ANYONE into joining the US Military today. In contrast, he admits he couldn’t wait to join the minute he turned18.
After “recovering” from his injuries, he was asked if he would go along with some of his other friends in the army to run some of the high tech weapons systems in UKR. (He didn’t specify with systems.) Military Contractors. Mercenaries or Mercs, whatever you want to call them. They are there in UKR and making good money he said matter of factly.
But his punchline was that his friends now can not get out of UKR- they are stuck there having to operate weapons systems. As Brian Berletic says on his New Atlas Telegram channel, it takes years to train these specialized weapons systems operators, and UKR simply does not have the time to train the replacements who are getting KIA at an alarming rate. They have checked into “Hotel Ukranifornia.”
So I wonder what would happen if NATO countries actually were dumb enough to send their troops to fight? What would be the loyalty of these troops, and how soon would a desertion back lash and a complete dearth of new recruits in these NATO countires ensue when they realized that Russia is a peer foe the likes of which the US and NATO have never faced since the end of WWII?
So maybe this Macron bluster has another purpose, like to coerce the US in sending more money?
And a Federal Court (Illinois?) has just ruled that illegal aliens are protected by the 2A and can possess firearms! This would seem to put a floor under the rights of all Americans to have firearms. What level of the criminal code has an illegal alien violated when he enters the US? IDK. Is he a automatically a felon who by precedent is prohbited from owning a firearm in the first place or are we playing games by making the argument that he can’t be a felon because being an illegal alien can’t be a felony unless you are either an American citizen or I guess an illegal alien who gets caught committing a felony like rape, armed robbery, homicide etc. What a convienient loop hole to allow this hoard of immigrant young fighting age males to conveniently arm themselves so as to wreck chaos in the US.
NATO is a defensive alliance
No it isn’t.
We all agree, but in the ever shifting West it might become a defensive alliance within a few years, or sooner if there is some black swan. Lawyers will be involved, as Mirror suggests.
It doesn’t seem to me that NATO, with or without the US, has much real power.
The US will try to stay on the sidelines. It may push Europe toward conflict with Russia. The US will try to sell munitions and meals ready to eat to other countries, getting ready for war.
This is a significant article (thanks Mirror). Despite the Obama purges there is sufficient conservative-realistic strength in the deep state that they would and could rebel against going to war with Russia. The MIC would not be on board as that would mean the total destruction of its business model. A Zirkon into the Elysees in the middle of the night would provide wonderful instant clarity of mind to the neocons (note that apart from a few servants only a homosexual and an old woman would die). The faction selling war on China is peddling the (correct but irrelevant) fact that the US is still strong in a largely sea war, and could fight a long rearguard action only using submarines.
This group (the realistic-conservatives) has already won significant victories in Afghanistan and in firing Victoria, and there must be quite some chatter behind the scenes discussing what to do after a Trump victory in November.
Macron has been mouthing off about how France is going to fight Russia in UKR and he wants other NATO countries to join in.
USA Republicans are saying that ‘these guys are insane and we cannot allow them to drag USA into war with Russia.’
The head of the French military now reckons that France can raise 20,000 troops to send to UKR and maybe 60,000 with European NATO allies.
Russia had better watch out with its 2.2 million military personnel and 1.3 million soldiers. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-army-expansion-a2bf0b035aabab20c8b120a1c86c9e38
Just do not expect USA to ride in and save you. NATO is a defensive alliance and if you start a war with Russia then that is your look out.
Russian intelligence reckons that France is preparing to send an initial 2000 troops into UKR.
https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2024/03/19/pierre-schill-chef-d-etat-major-l-armee-de-terre-se-tient-prete_6222812_3232.html
https://archive.ph/VrQTc Google translate:
Le Monde: Pierre Schill, Chief of Staff: “The Army stands ready”
…. France has the capacity to commit a division in coalition, or around 20,000 men, within thirty days. It acquires the means to command an army corps in coalition, i.e. up to 60,000 men, by combining a French division and national capabilities at the top of the military spectrum with one or more allied divisions. The corps headquarters is the essential structure for directing land operations of varying intensity, from crisis management or reassurance missions to high-intensity engagement. It is the tool of a power capable of involving partners; the diplomatic and military instrument which authorizes France to engage autonomously as a framework nation within NATO, as well as within an ad hoc coalition.
‘Death Awaits Them’: Russia Reveals Number Of Troops France Could Deploy In Ukraine | Watch
I live 30 kms from Lille( France) and participate in group activities there on weekends . In France Micron ( not a typo) is called ” Petit Napoleon ” . 😂 Absolute contempt .
I’ll bet his mum still chooses all his casual clothes.
Is there any truth to these malicious rumors about Brigitte?
https://twitter.com/xxclusionary/status/1768194134739669471
We discussed this but no one knows . All smirk . They ask the same question about Michelle Obama . 😊
The evidence assembled by Candace Owens seems pretty conclusive.
agree
In a recent talk Yann LeCun said there are four things missing from LLM that are needed for AGI.
1) A world model that includes intuitive physics
2) Memory: episodic memory, associative memory, short term, long term
3) Reasoning
4) Planning
To get #1 it needs to watch lots of YouTube or needs a robotic embodiment to learn from the world.
LLM’s are software like Microsoft Word. They do not think.
Really good article, Gail, thank you!
I think one aspect that is often overlooked is that the existing OECD countries built their infrastructure decades if not almost a century or more ago. This has three noteworthy effects, IMO: one, they have a much greater maintenance and replacement cost (using available energy and materials leaving less “surplus” energy and materials for “growth”) simply to sustain the current standard of living (merely “to tread water,” as it were), than the developing economies like China that are building modern cities for the first time with little old infrastructure to deal with. They don’t have the previously-built infrastructure carry costs to contend with. The countries building new skyscrapers, bridges, power plants, electricity grid, etc. won’t start hitting that wall for another, say, 50 years or more.
Second, the energy and materials costs of maintaining this massive infrastructure (roads, bridges, train routes, waterways, electricity grids, oil pipelines, airports, buildings etc) are much higher because of depletion. So even if they want to replace and maintain, it has become too costly to do so, with the result that maintenance and replacement are deferred and mount up.
For awhile, I lived in Tarrytown NY, where the Tappan Zee bridge across the Hudson is located. A major bridge to the NYC metro area. It was built with a planned lifespan of 50 years (already insane). It was finally replaced more than 60 years after it was built, and pieces of it were regularly falling off to the river below, the beams were rusted, the traffic volume and bridge load for which it was built was exceeded, etc. It was a disaster in waiting.
Third, this means that soon there will start being catastrophic failures of major infrastructure, with major inability or extreme costs to replace it. NYC is a major case in point. Its tunnels in particular, on which their survival depends, are in notoriously bad shape. Many of the concrete / rebar building structures have reached the end of their useful life. Some aging parking garages have already collapsed with hints of more to follow. There’s a Cash Jordan youtube video on this. The sewer system is at maximum capacity and cannot handle more. Etc.
The Tappan Zee bridge and our nation’s housing stock illustrate another catastrophic feature of the fact that fossil fuels permitted cheap infrastructure: they are not built to last. It is cheaper to build less robust infrastructure based on the expectation that the fossil fuel bonanza would continue indefinitely, so you can just replace everything in 50 to 100 years!
There’s going to be hell to pay!
The higher you are the harder you fall . What can you take away wearing a ‘ lungi ‘ ( lion cloth ) ? Ever wonder how Gandhi defeated the British Empire ? Think .
Gandhi did not defeat the British Empire. Peak UK coal in 1913 did. People don’t matter. History is about physics.
In fact Gandhi did extend the british rule by the ridiculous non resistance theory.
A theory used by the natives in 1490s when they simply refused to do anything ordered by the Spaniards. The latter imported blacks who would obey.
Few people apparently listened to Gandhi. Otherwise there would be a significantly higher African population in India now.
You make a very good point! It will be virtually impossible to keep up with the maintenance costs of our infrastructure. We have pipelines of all kinds to keep up, as well as electricity transmission infrastructure. One major fire in California was started by a transmission line built to support hydroelectricity that had not been properly maintained.
You mention bridges and tunnel. I think of the tunnel in Boston that had problems a few years ago. It seems like Seattle needed to rebuild some old streets. The problems are everywhere.
https://www.radiokw.de/artikel/das-bruecken-desaster-eine-chronik-zur-rahmede-talbruecke-1568286.html
I am living not far from this bridge near Dortmund in Germany:
The Rahmede valley bridge on the A45 has been closed for over a year. It is so broken that it can no longer be repaired and must be torn down and rebuilt. Since then, there has been chaos in the affected region around Lüdenscheid, in the Märkisches Kreis: tens of thousands of cars and trucks have to be rerouted. Tradesmen, mobile care services, commuters – everyone has to take a kilometer-long detour. Could this chaos have been prevented?
The closure of the Rahmede Valley Bridge is causing the NRW Prime Minister to find it increasingly difficult to explain. After all, he was the country’s transport minister for four years. The closure is just one of many stages on the road to catastrophe. A chronology.
2010: Engineers from the responsible authority “strassen.nrw” determine: The Rahmede viaduct is weak, but stable. Traffic relief will be ordered. From now on there will be a general ban on overtaking for trucks over 7.5 tonnes and a ban on heavy vehicles weighing over 60 tonnes that require a permit.
2011 : Experts from “strassen.nrw” come to the conclusion: Not only the Rahmede valley bridge, but all 38 bridges over which the Sauerland line A45 runs between Dortmund and the border with Hesse are affected by the increased number of cars and trucks pulled. It is decided that all these bridges must be renewed in the coming decades.
The Rahmede viaduct is being examined by engineers. Their stability is rated “3”.
2012 : The federal government agrees to renovate the Rahmede viaduct. 18 million euros are estimated for this.
2014 : The federal government, the state and the state company strassen.nrw change their minds: the Rahmede viaduct should not be repaired after all. Costs and effort are considered to be too high. That’s why it was decided: The bridge must be rebuilt – at an estimated cost of 43 million euros. At this point, construction is expected to begin in 2018. Until then, the bridge should be further relieved by a speed limit: 80 km/h applies to cars and 60 km/h to trucks. The bridge is inspected again by on-site experts. Once again she received a grade of “3”.
2017 : Hendrik Wüst from the CDU becomes NRW Transport Minister. He takes over the office from Mike Groschek from the SPD. Experts will continue to examine the bridge in 2017. The steadfastness is again rated as “3”.
2020 : The replacement construction of the Rahmede viaduct has still not begun: Contrary to the previous assumption that planning and approvals could be accelerated, the new construction now requires a complete planning approval process. Above all, this means that there must be consultation procedures for residents. Construction can therefore only be expected to begin after 2026.
2021 : After using a new laser process, it is clear: the bridge is more dilapidated than previous investigations suggested. It will be completely blocked. Tens of thousands of cars and trucks will now have to be rerouted through the surrounding area.
2023 : Hendrik Wüst comes under pressure: Reporters from the online portal t-online find out that emails relating to the postponement of the new bridge construction – both in the State Chancellery and in the Ministry of Transport – have disappeared. The ministry had previously announced that there were no longer any documents about it. The opposition suspects that Wüst is exerting targeted political influence. A current hour is requested in the state parliament in which Wüst remains silent. At a special meeting of the Transport Committee, Wüst later justified deleting the emails as a normal procedure. Wüst calls the decision not to carry out the renovation a mistake – but denies personal responsibility because the decision was made before his time as minister. As far as the postponement of the new replacement building during his term in office, he says that he cannot remember that this was raised with him as a problem. He completely relied on his experts.
The opposition does not want to be satisfied with this. We hear from the ranks of the SPD that they are thinking about applying for a committee of inquiry.
Saludos
el mar
a bridge is a block of embodied energy
as such, it is subject to entropy
humankind has come to delude itself that entropy can be overcome by spending money.
it can’t
I agree.
Germany and Europe will crumble like the Rahmede Bridge!
Germany and Europe will crumble like the Rahmede Bridge!
We have crumbled many times before but this will be the last.
There is still a fair amount of Ancient Roman infrastructure in good working order, such as viaducts. The costs of building that must have been fully amortized many times over.
And—believe it or not, Norman—there’s 3,300 year old bridge in Greece that is still in use today.
tim
if you can find one, stonehenge is still available for virgin sacrifices
but i hardly think any of that is releavant to modern, surplus energy existence, is it
Mind you, it won’t take motorway traffic.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/14ueu4i/a_3300_year_old_bridge_in_greece_that_is_still_in/
I am afraid that some version of this story will happen over and over. People will keep postponing fixing bridges (and other infrastructure), and the costs will balloon. It will be the “experts” who are the people looking at this, and they will be blamed.
@el mar
I also live there, in the South Westphalia region, so maybe we’re not that far apart.
If you’re interested, just contact me via my e-mail account:
harry.cane@gmx.net
@J R Snyder
You make some very good points. Thank you.
governments ignore the fact that all infrastructure was constructed using cheap surplus energy
we are now trying to rebuild/maintain it on expensive energy.
that is the crux of the problem
But Norman, just think of how much padding all that rebuilding adds to the GNP!
Here in Japan, they don’t need spend very much on their military as a percentage of GNP because they have a huge construction and civil engineering industry that is forever cleaning up and rebuilding after typhoon, earthquake and volcano damage, or building bridges and tunnels and motorways and high-speed train lines, and this soaks up as much money as the government cares to throw at it.
In the UK, Victorian structures may on average last longer than some of the structures constructed in the mid to late 20th.C. The Victorian ones tended to be over-engineered with higher safety margins.
For instance the rail tunnel under the River Severn is over 150 years old and is still in use for trains (every 15 minutes or so) from London to South Wales. I don’t think the UK in its present state could manage to replace it.
Interesting comment on Peak oil Barrel .
” The supercycle oil price theory goes like this:
Prices are high when there is not enough non-OPEC supply and OPEC can set the price. That was the story of the 70s. That cycle popped with North Sea shelf and Prudhoe Bay, which ushered a long era of abundance (~ 20 years) despite:
(i) Iran-Iraq War in the 80s, (ii) drastic cuts by the Saudis, close to 7 MMbpd, (iii) post-Soviet collapse in the Russian oil sector.
From the low point in 1999 the gradual depletion and supply tightening started the next cycle. Prices went up relentlessly, and stimulated the shale oil/oil sands investments. That cycle popped in 2014, and the abundance narrative set-in driving low prices. That was a much shorter “abundance period”, however, and In 2018-19 the narrative started to change again with “end-of-shale” talk and EM/China never-ending demand growth talk. That upswing was busted quickly and violently with the COVID-19 pandemic, so you can either call it a short cycle or an interrupted cycle.
Right now we are probably in the early stages of a new supercycle : either a brand new one, or a resumption of the interrupted 2018-19 cycle, depending on how you define the boundaries
If the Federal Reserve doesn’t cut rates, or even has to increase interest rates to fight inflation, a shrinking supply of money/credit could lead to a collapse in oil demand. Oil prices could remain low even if supply is dropping, because demand could drop faster than supply. It is hard to understand where the price is going when you have potential geologic shortage interplaying with potential financial problems.
Excellent observations. In other words the global economy could atrophy into global holodomor, even though prices per barrel are generally low.
Guided demolition –> mass violence -> mass repression
Mad max or North Korea are the future global economy. Plug can be pulled at any time, the folks running the show tend to be preemptive in their order out of chaos power grabs. Lots of places already living like North Korea, including North Korea. Plenty of mad max destinations to visit in March 2023.
Global wild west or global eugenics scientific dictatorship 2025-2050, with uncomfortable amounts of both until one option reigns supreme.
Hoping for the wild card, a meteorite full of 10 Trillion barrels of crude gently parks itself somewhere on earth. BAU continues this century and the overshoot predicament gets even more interesting. Wouldn’t that be lovely? I vote for 30,000,000,000 arrogant, decadent adult babies on earth at the same time.
Try to enjoy being above ground while you’re above ground, they/thems. The show is starting, and you’re in it.
Oil prices are a sham . Lowest inventory ever but market believes in paper barrels .
https://twitter.com/WhiteTundraSG/status/1722404729001763101/photo/1
Oil prices behave in a strange way. Paper barrels and physical barrels are different.
Low inventory suggests that demand is high. In fact, prices are up a bit from the past, but not in the $120+ per barrel range.
Bill Gates to the rescue with nuclear power?
https://www.sciencealert.com/bill-gates-terrapower-to-fast-track-first-next-gen-nuclear-plant-in-us
But uranium supply seems to be constrained, also.
All the king’s men can’t put Humpty Dumpty together again . Billy is getting on my nerves , as if the Covid fiasco was not enough . Now he enters another one as we run off ” The Energy Cliff ” .
From wiki:
is not at risk of decomposition at high temperature as water does. Sodium is non-corrosive. Natrium is fueled by high-assay, low enriched uranium (HALEU) as its fuel. HALEU is enriched to contain between 5 and 20 percent uranium, which can be produced from spent fuel. Plant sites are expected to be smaller and 4x more efficient than conventional plants.
*******
TerraPower notes that the US harbors 700,000 metric tons of depleted uranium and that 320 metric tons could power 100 million homes for a year.[14
It failed for subs:
https://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/liquid-sodium-reactor-powered-uss-seawolf-was-part-of-first-nuclear-task-force/
It’s better than doing nothing & with China Russia working on it I can see success.
There’s no shortage of energy, only of brains.
Molten salt catches fire if exposed to air. Sure this type of plant is much more efficient (1.2% recovered energy as opposed to 0.3%) but it is also more dangerous. We will need a couple of Chernobyls to debug the system and then we will be all set.
There’s no shortage of energy, only of brains.
That’s certainly what we like to believe. Of course it isn’t true.
There’s a terminal shortage of both.
“And beyond that, all that remains is when the various sour grapes narratives – including the one about how some all-powerful “they” behind the curtain is doing this deliberately – finally breakdown and people are forced to acknowledge the reality of a natural process of collapse..”
Tim Watkins is saying “they” is another boogeyman to distract from the natural process of collapse without pointing the finger at his normal cast of characters. Who is herding the sheep then? I nominate Charles Hugh Smith who has suggestions on how to defend ourselves from top down cattle drives.
There is a lot of “optimistic “ talk about the increase in oil production. I think this is a bad sign because it just means that these were projects that were on hold during Covid and now they are going back to them . They are just using a bigger to suck it out. Which will bring on decline much sooner than David can imagine. It’s not a good thing that production is going up. Oil exploration is way down so is spending on new projects. But I think that the plan is to create a Great Depression
Cocoa trees all over are relieved, as David goes back to digging and chewing local sedge tubers. The trees’ babies are spared.
my stock of dark chocolate is staying very stable lately, almost always a supply of at least 7 days, it’s all good.
“Which will bring on decline much sooner than David can imagine.”
I think I have a great imagination, and can easily imagine The Collapse coming tonight or tomorrow.
“It’s not a good thing that production is going up.”
I think US and Canadian oil producers would disagree.
but imagination again, yes I can imagine bAU going on and on and on for another 2 or 3 decades.
and the best part is that it ultimately doesn’t matter one bit whether I’m right or wrong, though it’s funner to be right.
I’m surprised you only store a week’s worth. The 85% cocoa chocolate I bought last week has a best-before date in late 2025. Cocoa and coconut fat are highly saturated so their shelf lives are nearly as good as tinned food. No fridge needed.
I checked my latest purchase and it’s dated 12/2025 which was about the date I expected.
true no fridge, but I’m guessing that stores keep it cooler than my average room temperature.
in my historical experience, the awesome bitter plus sweet deliciousness is at a maximum right at the time of purchase, and the flavor degrades slightly over time.
though I will have to closely watch for any supply issues, and vastly increase my stock if there is any chance of the unavailability of this fabulous food.
Peak oil C+C is 2018 . 6 years and will not be surpassed . No projects were on hold ( production of current operating fields was on hold ) . There is no FID ( First Investment Decision) in the pipeline . Read my posts on this matter . The party is over but the music is playing .
Mike Shellman , the real oilman . Latest . 2023 is not 2025 .
https://www.oilystuff.com/single-post/what-happened-in-2023-ain-t-gonna-happen-again?postId=8a54a5f9-0388-44a9-8a20-d6468b0c7e34&utm_campaign=6e826e6b-0e89-40a2-9d01-10a5e93ae3c5&utm_source=so&utm_medium=mail&utm_content=6bcdc766-c04e-4b33-a64a-f9297003356e&cid=fa335351-37bb-44a6-9899-f8c34b4a0f81
Cutting thru the BS .
https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/5fcbcbb3ee90ec001721308c/hope-and-forecasts-things-we-cling-to?postId=65faf1e8cb27c10010fcf193&origin=notification&utm_campaign=beb436f2-046e-4fa9-b5e3-0d199e1abaac&utm_source=so&utm_medium=mail&utm_content=16878bb6-5a44-4654-93ff-acc981fce18d&cid=fa335351-37bb-44a6-9899-f8c34b4a0f81
“The party is over but the music is playing.”
I still go to supermarkets and load my cart with anything I want, and at the checkout line they bag it for me and just let me walk out of the store and take it home, in one of my two cars.
and get this, I no longer am a worker, no job, but the electricity is staying on in my house day after day after day.
the same for most people I know.
the party will be over when it’s over, but in the present, in the now, it’s not over.
“The narrative, “We are moving away from fossil fuels to prevent climate change,” seems to be self-organized by the dissipative structures underlying Advanced Economies.
The real story is that fossil fuels are moving away from us.”
Nothing more really needs to be said here. Great work.
This is the major problem underlying what we read today.
I probably need to be repeating that summary of our problem, in presentations and in other posts I write.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYjkEQCHr7I&ab_channel=AndriiZvorygin
Simon Michaux and Steve D’ Angelo discuss diesel and metals . Long but worth it .
Simon Michaux is nuts
I disagree. He has a lot of good insights.
I think Simon deserves (a lot of) credit for elucidating how mineral extraction energy costs are going exponential due to multiple effects. There is a reason why we are hitting peak everything at the same time.
That talk where he shows a several tons pure copper nuggets found in 1903, followed by current processing of rock containing 10 microns copper grains, is all one needs to see to understand what is going on.
I also have listened to and watched him numerous times and he provides a well explained version of what we are experiencing in our modern world. I recommend others who have not do so, check out his talks.
Thanks for pointing this out.
I listened to the first few minutes of this, before Simon Michaux was on. It points out that according to the JODI data base, Diesel Demand (which is equal consumption) is down in 2023.
This reminds me that I should probably be writing another post on Diesel . A very telling image of what is wrong, which I made earlier, is this one:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Per-Capita-Supply-of-Diesel-Jet-Fuel-Kerosene-and-Fuel-Oil.png
The world has been refining more and more “Fuel Oil” (a very heavy part of the oil supply) to make diesel, but this approach to getting more Diesel has hit limits. This limits supply. My current post indicates that the protestors in the US temporarily limited world supply from the Oil Sands with their protests that stopped the Keystone XL pipeline, but now this limitation is being lifted. The recession in many parts of the world is limiting affordability of goods in general. And, interruption of Russia’s exports would tend to reduce Diesel supply.
When we look at the chart, we see that Jet Fuel (which is similar to Diesel) especially dropped in 2020. This freed up oil that could be used for diesel.
Listening to a long video like this is somewhat painful for me. Maybe I can speed listen, and find interesting parts to listen to.
The Statistical Review of World Energy seems to me to have much better data than JODI on this subject, but it won’t be out until June, I am guessing.
Interesting, and yet the aviation industry has projection and capital projects in place for more expansion in place.
Seems those decision makers have faith in biofuels and electric flying machines…