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World crude oil extraction reached an all-time high of 84.6 million barrels per day in late 2018, and production hasn’t been able to regain that level since then.
Oil prices have bounced up and down over the ten-year period 2014 to 2024 (Figure2).
In this post, I show that changing oil prices have had varying impacts on production. Recently, lower prices seem to be associated with lower production because extraction has become less profitable for producers. A temporary spike in oil prices does little to raise production. The view of economists that crude oil extraction can continue to rise indefinitely because lower production leads to higher prices, which in turn leads to greater production, is not true. (Economists also believe that substitutes can be helpful, but this is not a subject I will try to cover in this post.)
[1] World crude oil production has not regained its level prior to the Covid restrictions.
According to EIA data in Figure 1, the highest single month of crude oil production was November 2018, at 84.6 million barrels per day (mb/d). The highest single year of crude oil production was 2018, when world crude oil production averaged 82.9 mb/d. The last 24 months of oil production have averaged only 81.7 mb/d of production. Compared to the year with the highest average production, world oil production is down by 1.2 mb/d.
Furthermore, in Figure 1, there is nothing about the world production path in the last 24 months that gives the impression that oil production will be surging upward anytime soon. It merely increases and decreases slightly.
World population continues to grow. If economists are to be believed, oil prices should be shooting upward in response to rising demand. However, oil prices have not generally been increasing. In fact, as of this writing, the Brent crude oil price stands at $69, which is lower than the recent average monthly price shown in Figure 2. There is concern that the US economy is going into recession, and that this recession will cause oil prices to fall further.
[2] OPEC oil production seems as likely as other source of production to be influenced by price, since OPEC sells oil for export and can theoretically cut back easily.
One thing that is somewhat confusing about OPEC’s oil production is the fact that the membership of OPEC keeps changing. The data the EIA displays is the historical production for the current list of OPEC members. If former members left OPEC because of declining production, this would be hidden from view.
Based on the EIA’s method of displaying historical OPEC oil production, the peak in OPEC production occurred in November 2016, at 32.9 mb/d. The highest year of oil production was 2016 at 32.0 mb/d, with 2017 and 2018 almost as high. Average production during the last 24 months has been 29.2 mb/d, or 2.8 mb/d lower than the 32.0 mb/d production in its highest year. Thus, recent OPEC production has fallen further than world production, relative to their respective highest years. (World production is down only 1.2 mb/d relative to its highest year.)
[3] An analysis of OPEC’s production relative to price indicates that patterns change over time.
Prices have changed dramatically between 2014 and 2024. I chose to look at prices versus production during three different time periods, since these periods seem to have very different production growth patterns:
- January 2016 to November 2016 (rising OPEC production)
- December 2016 to April 2020 (falling OPEC production)
- May 2020 to May 2024 (rising and then falling OPEC production)
These are the three charts I created:
During this initial period ending November 2016, the lower the price of oil, the more OPEC’s Oil production increased. This approach would make sense if OPEC was trying to keep its total revenue high enough to “keep the lights on.” If some other country (such as the United States in Figure 7) was flooding the world with oil, and through its oversupply depressing prices, OPEC didn’t choose to respond by cutting its own production. Instead, it seems to have pumped even more. In this way, OPEC could make certain that US producers weren’t really making money from their newly expanded supply of crude oil. Perhaps the US would quickly cut back–something it, in fact, did between April 2015 and Nov. 2016, shown in Figure 7 below.
During this second period ending April 2020, prices plunged to a very low level, but production didn’t change significantly. It is difficult to change production levels in response to a specific shock because the whole system has been set up to provide a certain level of oil extraction, and it takes time to make changes. Other than that, prices didn’t seem to have much of an impact on production.
In this third period ending May 2024, OPEC producers seem to have been saying, “If the price isn’t high enough, we will reduce production.” Figure 6 shows that with higher prices, the amount of oil extracted tends to rise, but only up to a limit. When prices temporarily hit high levels (in March to August of 2022–the dots over to the right in Figure 6), production couldn’t really rise. The necessary infrastructure wasn’t in place for a big ramp up in production.
Perhaps if prices had stayed very high, for very long, maybe production might have increased, but this is simply speculation. Oil companies won’t build a lot of extraction infrastructure that they don’t need, regardless of what they may announce publicly. I have been told by someone who worked for Saudi Aramco (in Saudi Arabia) that the company has (or at one time had) a lot of extra space for oil storage, so that the company could temporarily ramp up deliveries, as if they had extra productive capacity readily available, but that the company didn’t really have the significant excess capacity that it claimed.
[4] US oil production since January 2014 has followed an up and down pattern, to a significant extent in response to price.
Figure 7 shows three distinct humps, with the first peak in April 2015, the second peak in November 2019, and the third peak in December 2023.
In the first “hump,” there was an oversupply of oil when the US was trying to ramp up its domestic oil supply of oil (through tight oil from shale) at the same time that OPEC also increasing production. The thing that strikes me is that it was OPEC’s oil supply in Iraq that was ramping up and increasing OPEC’s oil supply.
The rest of OPEC had no intention of cutting back if the US was arrogant enough to assume that it could raise production of both US shale and of Iraq with no adverse consequences.
Looking at the detail underlying the first US hump, oil production rose between January 2014 and April 2015 when production was “stopped” by low prices, averaging $54 per barrel in January through March 2015. The US reduced production, particularly of shale, since that was easy to cut back, hitting a low point in September 2016. The combination of growing oil supplies from both the US and OPEC led to average oil prices of only $46 per barrel during the three months preceding September 2016.
Eventually OPEC oil production peaked in November 2016 (Figure 3), leaving more “space” available for US oil production. Also, oil prices were able to rise, reaching a peak of $81 per barrel in October 2018. World crude oil production hit a peak in November 2018 (Figure 1). But even these higher prices were too low for OPEC producers. They announced they were cutting back production, effective January 2019, to try to further raise prices.
During the second hump, US oil production rose to 12.9 mb/d in November 2019. The oil price for the three months preceding November 2019 was only $61 per barrel. Evidently, this was not sufficient to maintain oil production at the same level. The number of “drilled but uncompleted wells” began to rise rapidly.
Drillers chose not to complete the wells because the initial indications were that the wells would not be sufficiently productive. They were set aside, presumably until prices rise to a high enough level to justify the investment.
Figure 7 shows that the US oil production had already started to fall before the Covid-related drop in oil production, which began around April and May of 2020.
[5] The rise in US oil production since May 2020 has been a bumpy one. The peak in US oil production in December 2023 may be its final peak.
The rise in oil production since May 2020 has included the completion of many previously drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells. There has been a trend toward fewer wells, but “longer laterals,” so the earlier wells drilled were probably not of the type most desired more recently. But these previously drilled wells had some advantages. In particular, the cost of drilling them had already been “expensed,” so that, if this earlier cost were ignored, these wells would provide a better return to shareholders. If production was becoming more difficult, and shareholders wanted a better return on their (most recent) investment, perhaps using these earlier drilled wells would work.
There remain several issues, however. Currently, the number of DUCs is down to its 2014 level. The benefit of already expensed DUCs seems to have disappeared, since the number of DUSs is no longer falling. Also, even with the addition of oil from the DUCs, the annual rise in US oil production has been smaller in this current hump (0.8 mb/d) than in the previous hump (1.4 mb/d).
Furthermore, there are numerous articles claiming that the best shale areas are depleting, or are providing production profiles which focus more on natural gas and natural gas liquids. Such production profiles tend to be much less profitable for producers.
I think it is quite possible that US crude oil production will start a gradual downward decline in the coming year. It is even possible that the December 2023 monthly peak will never be surpassed.
[6] Oil prices are to a significant extent determined by debt levels and interest rates, rather than what we think of as simple “supply and demand.”
Debt bubbles seem to hold up commodity prices of all kinds, including oil. I have discussed this issue before.
It seems to me that all the manipulations of debt levels and interest rates by central banks are ultimately aimed at maneuvering oil prices into a range that is acceptable to both producers of crude oil and purchasers of crude oil, including the various end products made possible through the use of crude oil.
Food production is a heavy user of crude oil. If the price of oil is too high, one possible outcome is that food prices rise. If this happens, consumers become unhappy because their budgets are squeezed. Alternatively, if food prices don’t rise sufficiently, farmers find their finances squeezed because they cannot get a high enough return on all of the required farming inputs.
[7] The current debt bubble is becoming overstretched.
Today’s debt bubble is driving up stock prices as well as commodity prices. We can see various pressures around the world associated with this debt bubble. For example, in China many homes have been built in recent years primarily for investment purposes, rather than residential use. This property investment bubble is now collapsing, bringing down property prices and causing banks to fail.
As another example, Japan is known for its “carry trade,” which is made possible by the combination of its low interest rates and higher rates in other countries. The Japanese government has a very high debt level; it cannot withstand more than a very low interest rate. There is significant concern that this carry trade will unwind, an issue that has already been worrying world markets.
A third example relates to the US, and its role of holder of the US dollar as reserve currency, which means that the US dollar is used heavily in international trade. Historically, the holder of the reserve currency has changed about every 100 years, in part because the high demand for the reserve currency allows the government holding the reserve currency to borrow at lower interest rates than other countries. With these lower interest rates, and the need to pull the world economy along, there is a tendency to “spur asset bubbles.” But an asset bubble is likely to have a debt bubble propping it up.
My previous post raised the issue of the economy today being exposed to a debt bubble. There has been excessive borrowing in many sectors of the economy that have been doing poorly. Commercial real estate is an example, as witnessed by many nearly empty office buildings and shopping malls. People with student loan debt often delay starting a family because they are struggling with repayment of those loans.
If any or all these bubbles should burst, there could be a swift downward fall in oil prices and commodity prices, in general. This could be a major problem because producers would tend to leave the market, and world GDP, which depends on energy supplies of the right kinds, would fall.
[8] Oil is an international commodity. Disruption of demand by any major user could pull prices down for everyone.
China is the single largest importer of oil in today’s world. Its economy seems to be struggling now. This, by itself, could pull world oil prices down.
[9] We don’t often think about the fact that oil prices need to be both high enough for producers and low enough for consumers.
Economists would like to think that oil prices can rise endlessly, allowing more oil to be extracted, but history shows that this is not what happens. If there are too many people for the available resources, wage and wealth disparity tends to increase, leading to many more very poor people. Lots of adverse things seem to happen: the holder of the reserve currency tends to change, wars tend to start, and governments tend to collapse or be overthrown.
[10] Simply because crude oil is in the ground and the technology seems to be available to extract the crude oil doesn’t mean that we can necessarily ramp up crude oil production.
One of the major issues is getting the price up high enough, and long enough, for producers to believe that there is a reasonable chance of making money through a major new investment. The only time that oil prices were above $100 for a sustained period was in the 2011 to 2013 period. On an inflation-adjusted basis, prices also exceeded $100 per barrel in the 1979 to 1982 period based on Energy Institute data. But we have never had a period in which oil prices exceeded $200 or $300 per barrel, even after accounting for inflation.
The experience of 2014 and 2015 shows that even if oil prices rise to high levels, they do not necessarily remain high for very long. If several parts of the world respond with higher oil production simultaneously, prices could crash, as they did in 2014.
There is also a need for the overall economic system to be available to support both the extraction of and the continuing demand for the oil. For example, much of the steel pipe used by the US for drilling oil comes from China. Computers used by engineers very often come from China. If China and the US are at odds, there is likely to be a problem with broken supply lines. And, as I said in Section 8, disruption of demand affecting even one major importer, such as China, could bring demand (and prices) down significantly.
[11] Conclusion.
The crude oil situation is far more complex than the models of economists make it seem. World crude oil supply seems to be past peak now; it may be headed down significantly in the next few years. Central banks have been working hard to keep oil prices within an acceptable range for both producers and consumers, but this is becoming increasingly impossible.
We live in interesting times!
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Shale-Hits-Snooze.html
The interesting quote from this article is that the $70 oil is going to be gone by 2025. And the new oil will be $100
Oil below $70 will kill the producer and oil above $70 will kill the consumer .–Industry quote .
Mr Shellman on the snoozing .
https://www.oilystuff.com//forumstuff/forum-stuff/snoozing?utm_campaign=cbd2f687-dda4-4a66-8012-859c08274e03&utm_source=so&utm_medium=mail&utm_content=847c4fd8-330f-43e4-9364-1fd16c96d9c2&configurationId=d1bb5b3a-0cae-4e51-8c4f-0f449a4bb929&actionId=4aa33078-4985-36e2-45a6-78290eb56e1f&cid=fa335351-37bb-44a6-9899-f8c34b4a0f81
Mike Shellman says,
” Everybody is in such a g’damn hurry to export tight oil we are only recovering 8% of it because of pressure depletion, leaving the other 92% behind, stranded forever.”
We are leaving a lot of oil behind everywhere. This is one reason that technology breakthroughs could make more of a difference than most people expect.
I haven’t followed the details enough to know whether 92% is being left behind. If the economics don’t work, companies stop extracting the oil.
I can believe this problem.
I expect other parts of the world are encountering similar problems. Saudi Arabia has some oil that can be extracted with little additional investment, but it will do less to keep extraction up. Same true pretty much everywhere.
Ever met a Vegan or Republican?
Don’t worry, they’ll let you know!
Never had anyone declare to me they were Republican, I have to say.
However, anyone who frequented Harvard in any capacity tells me that within the first three minutes.
Lots of folks do that in red states. Or in red parts of all states.
Not so much in blue states or blue parts of all states.
Probably because you actively avoid Republicans and seek out the company of people who would be Harvard graduates.
Most Harvard graduates present themselves as Democrats.
Is this true?
Ocean Plastic Cleanups May Do More Harm Than Good
Critics say removing ocean plastic can be expensive, harmful to animals and detract from efforts to stop waste at source
https://maritime-executive.com/editorials/ocean-plastic-cleanups-may-do-more-harm-than-good
…..One thing is clear: plastic is an environmental threat of epic proportions. An estimated 1.7 million tonnes enters the ocean each year, where it entangles, starves, and kills millions of animals; smothers coral reefs; and breaks down into micro- and nano-sized particles that enter the food chain.
But “plastic pollutes habitats, ecosystems, places where animals already live”, says Rebecca Helm, a marine ecologist at Georgetown University. “So taking plastic out using something like big nets is going to take life out with it.”
In a 2023 paper, Helm joined a group of concerned researchers who cautioned against what they called “the fallacy of plastic cleanup technology”.
Drones and robots designed to skim plastic off water surfaces risk pulling in creatures, they say. Other devices have been shown to capture significant amounts of sea life along with plastic.
The technology keeps advancing. Small, industrious robots are now proliferating across beaches worldwide, constantly sieving out plastic.
When conducting research for the study, Melanie Bergmann, the paper’s lead author, was alarmed by examples of such sand-sieving robots. “What kind of ecosystem will be there after that?” asks Bergmann, a marine ecologist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany. “It’s a habitat; it’s full of organisms that live there, and if you destroy it all the time, that’s not very beneficial either.”
But, but, it’s a win, win situation..the manufactures make money, the folks using it need it to survive, and the folks picking it up are making money collecting it and the folks burying it or burning it are doing the same…
We ain’t going back to glass containers, paper cups ect…
Plastic rules with 8$ billion people…more important than the ecosystem…believe me it is certainly true
Plastic “recycling” is to make people think we can recycle plastic.
Skimming a little plastic off the top of the ocean serves more or less the same purpose, I am afraid.
“a child, male or female, to inherit everything, ”
I don’t think you are getting the consequences of future tech. People will quit dying. When people don’t die, nobody inherits.
“Not dying” isn’t a likely outcome.
Everything about the Universe is built on evolution. Each new generation differs in many tiny ways. There is always “survival of the best adapted.” This is what underlies evolution.
“isn’t a likely outcome.”
Given nanotechnology based medicine, how do you prevent it?
I am well aware of evolution having written published papers on evolutionary psychology. But at some point human “natural” biological evolution will come to an end as we get control of our DNA.
It’s hard to say if we will get designer babies or just leave flesh behind.
I am not particularly happy about the various ways the future may turn out, but there is not much I can do about it.
Not sure that one will work. All biology is the result of millions of years of evolution whatever that may be. It doesn’t seem to be as random as we might think and our ideas are probably not correct/complete regarding evolution.
80/20 may well be some sort of universal limit and I mean that literally.
If we are alone, it takes an entire universe and billions of years to get biology to work.
If Musk can ever launch and he catches Starship 5, that would be 80/20.
Dennis L.
80/20 theory did not appear until Joseph Juran, a Romanian born engineer, quoted Vilfredo Pareto’s works. It is known as the Pareto principle since Pareto was better known.
There is no 80/20 universal law. It was relevant during the 20th century, when the smokestack industries made middle class viable. The historical norm is 99 vs 1.
It won’t happen because humankind, with AI or not, won’t be smart enough to completely gain control of the DNA.
The various legends about chimeras and the tale of the Island of Dr Moreau suggest that there were some old attempts in the old era but these experiments did not turn out that great.
“to completely gain control of the DNA.”
it is still getting better, but there are any number of companies that make things like insulin with complete control over DNA.
“chimeras and the tale of the Island of Dr Moreau suggest that there were some old attempts ”
It is the era of universal eclectic fecundity. Hybrids of elephants and orchids, oh my.
“nanotechnology based medicine”
where does that exist besides in your overly active imagination?
Amazing what people will believe just so they don’t have to accept death.
News flash Keith at some point you will be d e a d. Freezing you as an ice block just means people in the future can look at your misguided expression and mock you. It is no wonder that FE used to give you such a hard time. This is a reality blog not a sci fi blog, you seem to be confused.
“where does that exist”
I hardly rate in this area, there are thousands of people more deeply into nanotech than I am. There is a major conference this week in SF.
I suspect that it will be like AI, one week you don’t have it and the next you are talking to one of them.
“reality blog”
You are kidding.
“Nanotech” is silly. Our bodies don’t operate at “nano” scale; “nano” scale to the extent that it is artificial is alien and dangerous.
But a lot of people like things that are alien and dangerous.
“bodies don’t operate”
You don’t know much about biology. Nanometers is the typical size of the molecular parts that run all cellular activity. Like birds were the example that led the Wright brothers to aircraft, natural nanomachines in cells make the case for nanotechnology.
At the root of our metabolism is a nanomachine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytochrome_c
if you lose an arm—nano biology wont grow another one, even though it would be to our advantage to do so. (yes i know about reptiles growing another limb)
At the nano level, our bodies are nothing more than mines and prairies to the minicritters who use us for sustenance.
And that is all they do.
they keep us alive to ensure their own survival—we cannot survive without them
there is no ”nanotechnology” involved, just survival of the fittest, which happens to be them, not us.
“But at some point human “natural” biological evolution will come to an end as we get control of our DNA.”
I am doubtful of this. The self-organizing system will pick out a future for us. We will not have much direct input. Our great grandchildren may be hunter-gatherers. Or there may be a religious end to our problems, in a way we cannot understand or predict.
“The self-organizing system will pick out a future for us. We will not have much direct input.
Maybe, but I think we are the self organizing system.
“Our great grandchildren may be hunter-gatherers.”
Could be, But if that comes to be there will not be very many of them.
“religious end”
Given what you could do with advanced technology, I would not rule this out.
If we are going to live forever, there will be even fewer of us. Unless the oldsters get out of the way, there won’t be a lot of space to accommodate new members off the species.
In any case, if aging doesn’t get us, there’s always homicide, suicide, and fatal accidents. We aren’t going to live forever.
tim
your frozen head in a glass case would grace any sideboard –and be a talking point at dinner parties.
one day you might be woken up to take part.
You should study the 2nd law of thermodynamics. also once oil runs out, all that mumbo jumbo will disappear.
They tend to disregard the laws of thermodynamics at will
Which is why I commented that there is a reason dentists were treated in the same regard as barbers in the old days
“2nd law ”
I am an engineer. Thermodynamics is one of the subjects I studied. Did you?
Is this true?
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/modern-economy-rests-single-road-north-carolina-where-hurricane-collapsed-bridges
“Modern Economy Rests On Single Road” In North Carolina Where Hurricane Collapsed Bridges
What are the implications for this?
They will soon reopen the road. The storm blew over.
If this is really the only mine, we probably need to worry about the “running out” issue. We need to start work on a backup mine or two to mine, as well. Usually, developing a new mine takes years and quite a bit of investment.
from what little I know about geology, it is unlikely that ultra pure quartz is present only in the Appalachians. (It is a matter of cost)
Chess in different countries developed differently.
In Chinese and Korean chess, there are no promotion so it is the end for a piece if it reaches to the end of the board (Some pieces are allowed to move back).
In chess styles often played in middle east, pawns can only promote to knights.
In Japanese chess, which doesn’t have a queen, rooks are promoted to super rooks, bishops are promoted to super bishops, and everything else, except the King, promotes to what could be called as a “super pawn”.
Only in Western chess a pawn can promote to a queen.
In Asian cultures, aspiration by lower classes was checked. So even in games the best someone not in the right ranks could look for was what we would call an NCO or a lower officer.
That kept such cultures stable until Western arms arrived.
In Western Culture, any fool could become a head of state, such as Napoleon, Lincoln or a guy with a funny mustache. Although all three met unsavory ends, their stories did unnecessarily promote aspirations of the lower classes.
That will be significantly reversed, to preserve the resources for the worthy. Only the worthy will reach higher positions, nothing for the rest.
Interesting!
The growth rate of energy supply likely influenced how cultures developed, and how the game of Chess developed.
I have said a few times that even if we have power satellites or the hypotheticak cubic mile of unobtainium or a mountain of unicorn shit to power stuff, all the benefits will go to those who have a stake on such projects.
The future is a winner take all world, with nothing left for the second best. The poker games are good example. In some games all the money is given to the top . Bigger events give some money to those who made it into the top 9. However the winner gets prizes way higher than everyone else.
I debated with Keith about the new energy becoming like the Gold from the New World, monopolized by the Habsburgs. Karl V, who ended up with all these wealth, was foolish enough to divide the empire between his son and his younger brother who got the better part, namely Spain (which would get to include Portugal for some time) and the entire wealth of the New World.
Today’s winners won’t make that kind of mistake. They will choose a child, male or female, to inherit everything, with the rest giving some concessions to not sue the favored child, and the dynasty will be eternal. If the main line dies out a cadet branch descendant would be adopted into the main line.
Until 1914, the historical norm was everything goes to the upper class and those in the top , and the rest were considered to be NPCs, not worth a mention.
There was, simply, nothing for the poor and the lower middle class, and civilization advanced by leaps and bounds.
We are going back to these days, because as resources get scarcer, they get to be concentrated among the top since nature has decided that it is better to concentrate everything to the top, since the top is the most likely to advance civilization, away from the rest who will always live in penury, their existence always in a precarious situation.
It was a mistake to allow the poor to live better , but the upper class after 1917, with their ranks significantly reduced because of the Great War, got shocked by the Czar getting shot, and granted a lot of concessions to the poorer people which led to this mess. I am not aware of any concessions given to the soldiers after the Napoleonic War ended – in fact the rights for the poor were much more restricted , leading to a lot of revolts and assassinations during the 19th century.
The whole trend is returning back to normal.
It’s coming, really, I’m 100% certain. Please do not respond..
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7yh1B90u8ME
“You can’t stop what’s comin”
Wow, can’t write a comment without going to moderation; going woke is wordpress…?
always misspell any word that is doubtful.
climmmate, pron, sooisside, etc etc.
In future;
Flew ride
Can sir or Canker
Cow-ruption
Will try again;
Calcium flew ride was found in Hastings water, where childrens teeth were very good.
Few-ride was given credit.
Calcium should have been.
Cow-ruption led to promotion of Flew-ride.
Change to flouro silly ic acid in town where I live caused great profits for local plumbers; the metal valving of these older cylinders rapidly core-roaded under the new tok-sic as-salt.
Ok, lets see….
test: assault
okay so your naughty word is cowruption.
‘Cowruption’ definitely sounds like something which would contribute to climate change.
Fluoride’s efficacy was never verified. Article in Nature about 1982, good correlation, order was wrong. Tooth decay began declining worldwide before introduction of Fl.
Originally also a way to get rid of waste fluoride.
Dennis L.
Tooth decay started leaving us as we went from stone ground grain to metal rollers ground grain. The tiny bits of silicon and rock left in the bread accelerated tooth decay. We were using stone ground grains for hundreds to thousands of years.
It did pick up though once sugar was introduced 250 years ago.
Interesting thought! With this theory, parts of China and Japan that used rice (not rice made into noodles) should not have seen this effect.
“Everything in moderation, including moderation”
Oscar Wilde
Poor Oscar, bit unlucky wasn’t he in his moderations…
Oscar Wilde’s last words were reportedly “This wallpaper and I are fighting a duel to the death. Either it goes or I do.” That would be funny, except I once had a hideous case of food poisoning in Paris at L’Hotel, where he died. Truly, the wallpaper was as bad as the oyster I had eaten.Apr 15, 2016
Ukraine is the forward troops of the US in Europe. Israel is the forward troops of the US in the Middle East. Philippines, Japan, NZ, Australia are the US troops in East Asia.
We have the US at war with the world for the last of the FF. The US has an unbeatable nuclear triad.
The only none suicide move by the world is sending killers, rapists, mental defectives, and trained military attack teams to the US. If Trump wins they can not continue playing this move after Jan 20. Well, some time after Jan 20, when the military that reports to China is tried and removed.
“The US has an unbeatable nuclear triad.”
Russia does also and also does China.
WW3 is always a few weeks/months away.
Yes, Russia has a triad.
China only has land based ICBMs. Not nearly enough to fight without committing sue-e-cide.
just to lay it out plain as day…
the US indeed has an unbeatable nuclear arsenal…
so does Russia and China…
meaning none of these countries can “lose” a nuclear war…
such a war would be Mutual Assured Destruction…
nobody “loses” and nobody wins…
it’s an absolute tie where all sides are destroyed.
Check out “On Thermonuclear War” by Herman Khan of the Hudson Institute.
I met Herman Khan early in the L5 Society days at a Limits to Growth conference near Houston. A remarkable character.
In Kahn’s view, capitalism and technology held nearly boundless potential for progress, while the colonization of space lay in the near, not the distant, future.
Russia now has hypersonic missiles.
the US probably does not.
doubt that book is up to date.
Move to higher ground…Higher. Ground in Florida?
DeSantis warns Florida EV drivers to move cars to higher ground ahead of Hurricane Helene…best go to a multistory garage Governor ..and hope it doesn’t ignite in a fire blaze!!!
DeSantis warns Florida EV drivers to move cars to higher ground ahead of Hurricane Helene
BY Kristin Toussaint Fast Company.
As Hurricane Helene intensifies and moves toward Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis has warned electric vehicle owners in the state to move their cars to higher ground because of the risk of saltwater intrusion. When saltwater gets into an EV battery, it can cause fires days or even weeks after exposure.
“If you have an EV, you need to get that to higher land,” he said during a news briefing on Wednesday. “Be careful about that getting inundated. It can cause fires.”
No Sh#t, Sherlock…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MhUxX63U5HQ&pp=ygUPTm8gc2hvdHNoZXJsb2Nr
I imagine this is in response to a report that a new hurricane may be forming that may follow a similar path to Hurricane Helene.
https://sixerswire.usatoday.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2024/09/27/tropical-updates-gulf-coast-warning-tropical-storm-hurricane-joyce/75407985007/
Why haven’t people been told to be very, very concerned about salt-water intrusion to their batteries? This is in addition to being concerned about slight bumps to their batteries, which may permanently harm them.
No wonder insurance companies have high charges for EVs.
wow we are so screwed
There is also a problem with wind turbines in salt water. We do’t know how short their life span will be.
Not much longer than the government subsidies for them lasts, I’d guess.
Even land wind turbines have the difficulty of not lasting longer than the subsidies.
So much for Tesla Cruise ships!
Sadly, the peace rally in Kingston was a dud. About 150 people.
No one is interesred in peace
Peace means losing everything USA has
It’s the ONLY product that the USA has to offer…WAR, Conflict
We no longer the Good Guy but BAD Guy
War helps the US economy in many ways (provided it is not offset by major bombs causing problems within the US).
Did have one person walking away for the rally who decided she needed to sleep on the sidewalk. I expect fentanyl. We had one trans with extensive hip augmentation but lower legs that looked like a male long distance runner a hideous combination.
Thanks for the tidbit. I will wait for a regular collapse to occur, and not put my hopes in these heroic peace fighters.
3 approaches to food security:
1. Europe: high food production subsidies, higher food prices
2. USA: junk food chemicals allowed, lower food prices
3. China: one-child policy
Each of these approaches has its drawbacks, but all of them limit the population growth.
You raise an interesting point. I think you are right.
In the US, it is worse than junk food chemicals being used, it is a combination of pesticide and herbicides being used through the growing process, the foods that are grown are over processed. When they are sold, either in the stores or restaurants, portions are huge. Many chemicals are added to the finished products, so that the colors and flavors are the way the manufacturer desired.
On top of this, we have a health care system that is run by pharmaceutical companies and the US government. This system mandates a huge number of immunizations for children, many of which may be (or certainly are) harmful. The system protects the pharmaceutical industry than the life and health of citizens.
It means that the costly US health care system works unanimously with the junk food in limiting the population growth, as the US life expectancy is falling. Together with the birth rate.
They are now admitting that high amounts of flouride are harmful to human brains.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/fluoride-in-drinking-water-poses-enough-risk-to-merit-new-epa-action-judge-says/ar-AA1rlGwL?ocid=BingNewsVerp
There is also reason to doubt that there is anything called naturally occurring flouride in fresh water. Elevated amounts of flouride in water looks like they are the result of freshwater contamination from mining and that the one possible benefit of flouride is used as a cover to hide the damage caused by too much flouride.
No one is sure if all sources of water for humans consumption abide by the 1.5 mg/L limit set by the WHO. Your drinking water might be under the limit, but the water used to make your bottled drink might not.
Flouride was already being added to water at the time it became a standard for water treatment in America. Why was it being added to water?
https://forumias.com/blog/not-just-groundwater-fluoride-has-poisoned-agricultural-soil-crops-in-bengal/
Still don’t think conspiracies exist, Keith? Do you still think everything is happening spontaneously and everyone is living in the moment and is just responding to environmental stimuli and the best information possible?
Or maybe you’re going to lie and say
“no one knew”?
I hadn’t thought about the possibility of the fluoride harming the soil.
Me, either until I kept running into crazzy sources that said flouride is byproduct of mining aluminum and that uregulated disposal of it was making humans and other organisms sick.
The MSM is claiming
“It’s not because dentists and scientists are lying to us (although sometimes they do). It’s because finding the whole, unshakable truth is a never-ending process.” (Vox)
but this information was known for a long time and was suppressed.
It looks like some of the water used in the water supply comes from Hydrofluorosilicic Acid.
It is a toxic byproduct of fertilizer production that is not dumped into the water supply at acceptable concentrations but is put there in safe concentrations for the welfare of everyone’s teeth.
https://blog.polyprocessing.com/blog/proper-hydrofluorosilicic-acid-storage
I don’t doubt that too much fluoride is not good for you. After all, sodium fluoride is used as rat poison. But I also accept that small amounts are good for your teeth.
And I don’t think there is any conspiracy involved.
What do you think of iodized salt?
“small amounts of rat poison are good for your teeth.”- hkeithhenson
September 29, 2024
” iodine is comparable to fluoride in terms of importance to human health”
– hkeithhenson
September 29, 2024
Calcium flouride, found to be naturally occurrng in the Hastings (NZ) groundwater supply, was discovered to result in great teeth for the locals.
This outcome was interpreted to be a function of the flouride.
It was/is a function of the Calcium component.
The results and implementation was corrupted.
Should be Calcium not sodium in this mix.
My small town recently built a new treatment plant and changed from sodium flouride to flourosilicic acid as the poison of choice; the local plumbers were run off their feet replacing hot water cylinders. The valves corroded out.
Bone canker anyone?
The coming war is a war for survival, a war to try to extend the life of Civilization.
No holds barred, no mercy or quarter given, no tricks considered to be dirty.
There is no turning back. It has to be done, or we go back to the Dark Ages.
The resources will be grabbed, and the people unfortunate enough to live on where the resources are at will be subdued . It is necessary to reach the next level of civ.
Okay, I’ll give you this is a possibility if we don’t launch Starship.
I am open to all suggestions, a cubic mile of Pt is a chance for humanity and I believe humanity will get its chance.
Dennis L.
i have some on order from amazon dennis
but they say they can’t deliver a cubic mile all at one go
so will cubic yards over 12 months be ok?
There are no starships who are capable of reaching the places to get the stuff you wish you had
So wars are inevitable.
Humanity wasted too many chances and Providence is sick of it. There won’t be any chances no matter what you choose to believe.
Even if it was possible to retrieve do you think it would be used for the benefit of mankind or rather just to further fill the pockets of the already obscenely wealthy? In this current system, I know which case I would bet on.
There is no cubic mile of Pt out there, no do we have the methods to try and mine ‘out there’, let alone get enough equipment ‘out there’.
Plus all the processes here on Earth that concentrate minor quantities of elements into higher grade sources don’t happen in space.
It’s a lose, lose, lose idea that you’ve been given detailed reasons why it wont work on several different occasions yet continue to persist with this fantasy.
It’s a microcosm of the overall problem, the belief that something will save us. Sorry, that’s what happens in fictional stories and Hollywood, not in the real world. Modern civilization was nice while it lasted, but was only ever temporary, enjoy the last years of it while you can…
“nor do we have the methods to try and mine ‘out there’, let alone get enough equipment ‘out there’.”
That’s not the case. https://htyp.org/Mining_Asteroids
Though I don’t want to minimize the amount of effort involved. It would take around 1000 starship launches to haul up 30 GW of power plant, the processing plant to sort out a metal asteroid, and the reaction mass needed to get the whole thing out to the asteroid. And even at that, most of the processing plant would have to be fabricated on site.
There are two methods I know about for sorting out asteroid metal, zone refining and the Mond process. I favor Mond because there is a lot of industrial experience with it. Almost all nickel is refined that way. The process would reduce the stream of metal from the asteroid by 98%, concentrating the gold and platinum group elements to practical levels.
Still, you don’t get very much, these elements are down in the parts per million range, so a 2 cubic km asteroid like 1986 DA is not enough for a mythological cubic mile. 16 Psyche is a different story, it’s almost 6 million cubic km, which contains around 6 cubic km of platinum.
Years ago I wrote fiction about humans running an asteroid mining project, but I now think it is more likely that AIs will run the whole thing.
//////There are two methods I know about for sorting out asteroid metal, zone refining and the Mond process. I favor Mond because there is a lot of industrial experience with it.////
Keith—no one has any experience of sorting out asteroid metal.
no one.
more fantasy????
More BS?????
and please—can someone let me in on the secret of what you do with a cubic mile of pt when we get it back to earth?????
“no one has any experience”
We have lots and lots of samples of asteroids, known as meteorites. Thousands have been analyzed. If that is not “sorting out” elements, what is it? Plus there are a couple of examples of samples from asteroids that have been analyzed. If you want to know about this, it’s not hard to find the news stories.
John Lewis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_S._Lewis and his students applied the Mond process to a chunk of metal asteroid around 25 years ago. The Mond process is well understood, virtually all the nickel we mine is purified that way.
Ask Dennis about what he thinks we should do with the platinum. I have been more focused on gold. (Though the iron and nickel are more useful for building structure in space.)
an asteroid sample here on earth—is somewhat different to mining an asteroid, out there–it situ so to speak
If you mean we have not *yet* mined an asteroid at a million tons per day, I agree.
i might have missed it
but i dont recall being to told what pt will actually do for humankind
we cant eat it
we cant burn it
so???????
over to you dennis—maybe we can fill dental cavities with it.???
The winners will be the selected ones to use the resources that are left.
again
it isnt possible to
”use the resources that are left”
resource extraction—whatever the resource happens to be, requires armies of workers—they themselves need ”resources” in order to function.
that is the support pyramid we all pay rent to i’m afraid.
get rid of 90% of people, and the remaining 10% will be reduced to hunter gathering as soon as their taps run dry and their lavatories stop flushing.
it really is that brutal.
farming, fishing, and herding also. Population down to a hundred million or so.
any civilisation is entirely reliant on the surplus energy available to it
there is no ”next level of civilisation”
because no surplus energy will be available
stop fantasising
Norm doesn’t recognized sunlight.
lol keith
the ancient egyptians, compared with say, the inuit—had a surplus of sun energy
the egyptians built tombs and pyramids.
the inuit did not
purely a matter of geography—nothing else.
all the cities of the world follow the same laws.—you can build a city in the arctic, but only if you have fossilised sun energy to sustain it.
every civilisation around the earth started in the hot equatorial zone.—check it for yourself.–none in the arctic, or the antarctic.
you, keith, as i recall do not recognise the connection between fossilised carbons and stored sunlight.
there will be no ”higher civilisation”, only that which conventional sunlight provides.
interesting exchange, because the certainties of others is always interesting.
but it is still fantasy—like mining asteroids and space elevators and head freezing.–we have the ability to think those things up, but thats all it is.
your opinion—but still a load of utter BS.
After EV , solar panels now heat pumps . 47 percent drop .
https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/interview/47-drop-in-heat-pump-sales-new-industry-boss-says-european-demand-is-key/
If Europe doesn’t have enough electricity (especially in winter), how in the world does it expect to sell heat pumps?
Jobs gone .
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/thyssenkrupp-steel-head-prepares-staff-tough-cuts-2024-09-28/
https://www.cityam.com/harland-wolff-titanic-shipbuilder-calls-in-administrators/
The first article is about a German Steel maker, planning to make big staffing cuts, because its products aren’t competitive.
The second link is about a UK shipbuilder that is making big cuts in staff because its products aren’t competitive.
Europe needs cheap coal and cheap labor to compete.
Here’s something I was thinking about and wanted to share with everyone.
What would happen if they knocked out all the world debt or even mortgage debt?
Inflation would skyrocket.
Imagine if a family of four in the burbs no longer had to pay 1,500 a month mortgage payment. Karen the soccer-mom would run to Wal-Mart and would buy out the bar. So, the demand for ALL consumer products would skyrocket. And let’s say she purchases new yoga mats for herself and a pair for her daughter at college made by Rubbermaid. There is no way they could keep Wal-Mart in stock so Rubbermaid would raise the price from $30 to $300. So, in essence you would end at the same place as paying the $1,500 mortgage payment at the end of month.
So how do you get around this problem?
I suggest you put in “limits to consumption” then you could control in essence the demand and keep it at bay which would also keep inflation at bay. For context, Karen could buy a pair of yoga mats for $30 but only once a year or something like that.
I guess what I am saying is it would make no sense to do a ‘world debt reset’ unless you have limits or rationing for consumption.
And how do you knock out all the worlds debt?
You change the currency which is what all the debt (contracts) are based with. It would void them all since there would no way possible to convert them fairly.
And how would you create a new debt system that people or investors could trust so they could borrow afterwards? Why would any investors or institutions trust any debt system that could be wiped out in the future again?
You could create a social credit system, think like “Uber rating” for drivers. Where people/companies are judged by their peers and purchases. Instead of a wall street banking credit system which determined by your payments and payment history.
Just my .02 cents wondering what ya’ll think? This is where I think we’re headed, regardless of what I or anyone feels about it.
*For the record. I have no debt. I own a used car. (paid off) So, I have no conflicting interest.
“And how do you knock out all the worlds debt?”
Hyperinflation.
So, I have no conflicting interest.”
I see what you did there.
I suggested that too. Limit people’s consumption according to the contribution they make to civilization.
Not possible, debt is exponential. All IOUs must be increased infinitely, because of the interest on debt. Declining population, no issued loans, means destruction and deflation, which means spiral of unemployment.
Only logical system is calculation of rate of regeneration of resources and distributing it by pool for classes of citizens with fixed consumption rate, with equal share for all people in that class. Negative interest rates and UBI were elite solutions with CDBC. Anyways since pop size is too big, nothing matters until deaths is sufficient enough.
This is one of their contingencies hence the drills for a worldwide cyber attack “10x worse than Covid” to reset finance.
The pandemic, regional wars and the DEI operation allowed:
– population wide test of experimental gene therapy to fast track cures to common diseases ahead of a plotted bottleneck
– reset of energy and finance with economic sanctions, supply shocks, a new payment/transaction system and stimulus/liquidity injections to stave off another market crash towards regional trade blocs
– social change and mass immigration financed by progressive governments and global capitalism to kick the can, stigmatize dissent, limit freedom of speech and assembly, strain local budgets and erode trust in public officials and institutions
– centralized health protocols to further biometric health passports, medical triage eg. focused protection, crowd control and the global governance model aka. the long emergency.
– public/private partnerships to supersede national sovereignty for narrative control, de-banking and enforcement ie. creating 2nd class citizens.
I am not convinced that a person can end only consumer debt.
The Government has a huge amount of debt. A lot of this is used to provide wages and “transfer payments”. You can’t very well knock this out, or the system fails.
Businesses are also funded by large amounts of debt. Making this debt go away would likely make the businesses fail. They need debt to fund the inventory that have on hand, among other things.
They tried a lot of the ideas you discuss in your post during the 2020-2022 lockdowns.
They tried replacing debt with helicopter money for for a little while.
They were even thinking about a new monetary system but they ultimately chose not to implement one at that time.
In order to create a new system, the old system has to be destroyed. That is the thinking I believe is behind the term “Creative destruction”.
Maybe there’s too much of the remaining system left to remove to create a new system.
Only during times of crisis can great change occur. Usually, it’s only when the drunk hits rock bottom does he realize he has to sober up and change.
Good thing there are no shortage of crisis these days, right? LOL
My grandson thinks ” money comes out of the wall and milk is produced in Aldi ” .
Intricacies of mining .
Hideaway
Ignored
09/28/2024 at 9:48 pm
At an open cut mine you have both waste and ore, they go to different places. You also something called a ROM pad for the ore to be stored before it can be processed. Unfortunately the ore of everything we mine has varying grades, usually designated in blocks of different grades in the reserve model.
A mine with an average grade ore of 1% might have anything from 0.1% to 4% in the actual reserve, but has to be blended to feed through the plant at a consistent 1% grade. On the ROM pad there are a whole lot of different piles of different grades so the FEL loading it into the crusher can take 1 bucket of pile A 2 buckets of pile B and 1 bucket of pile C in order one after the other so a consistent grade goes through the crushers, grinders and mill.
The waste also goes into multiple different piles depending upon exactly what it is. Some could be good enough for gravel on tracks, while other waste might be very soft and can’t be stacked very high etc.
In other words every single truckload could be going in a different direction, depending upon exactly the digger is digging, and the onsite geologist determines which pile every truck load goes to.
Some mines have been using overhead cables just to go up out of the pit, but then need their own power to go to various places to dump their loads.
To use those cables to both power the trucks and charge the batteries a little bit, might be possible, but the trucks then have to carry both the batteries and the charger as well, adding weight. Most of these large mining dump trucks are now diesel electric so the power lines out of the pits can be electrified.
The next problem is that the road out of the pit keeps changing as the pit is expanded/deepened so there is extra cost in moving the poles and cables when the haul road out of the pit changes.
Boliden is the World leader in trying to electrify everything at the Aitik mine because the electricity is very cheap Nuclear and hydro, it was costing them just 3.7c/KWh a few years ago. This video shows what they can and can’t do.
https://streamio.com/api/v1/videos/5d91d3c96f8d8dfdc4000002/public_show?link=true&player_id=59eed3d56f8d8d20b5000001
Mining is a highly complex system made up of many subsystems that all need to work in a coordinated fashion, to get the minerals we use for everything. The grades of ore on average are getting lower, while the energy cost for extraction of each tonne of metal is constantly growing.
We will never run out of any mineral or metal resource, we will not have enough energy to collect the minerals and metals in the quantities needed..
BTW the Fortescue mines run off diesel generators at night, so their entire battery operated trucks will be charging off diesel generators at night, or they buy a few GWh of batteries so they can collect solar energy during the day, then charge the trucks at night from batteries with efficiency losses at every stage. I’ll bet they keep the diesel generators running at night, which to charge electric batteries anyway is pretty inefficient.
islandboy
Interesting!
If everything stayed constant, it might sometime make sense to electrify the whole system, but if the system keeps changing, this doesn’t work well. Diesel trucks are much more flexible than most electrical approaches. I am not holding my breath on mining becoming all electric.
Mine space.
Dennis L.
(English Al Arabyia)
US missiles deployment in the Philippines towards Chinese targets, seems to follow the same scheme of what happened in Ukraine about Russia.
Russia and China will surely see the same strategy applied against them.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2024/09/29/china-says-us-missile-deployment-in-philippines-undermines-peace
The US isn’t very able to fight wars. Why does it go around trying to stir up trouble?
In the Muddle East we are trying to protect our supply of oil. In other places we want to establish governments friendly to the United States for access to their natural resources. We do this under the guise of protecting democracy and freedom. There is some truth to that, we are opposed to countries bring taken over the authoritarian governments we consider our enemies; Russia, China, Iran, North Korea snd so on because of their oppressive governments, lack of democracy snd human rights. In the end, the US does it for self protection. .That is the viewpoint of the neoconservatives who are now running our foreign policy under Biden and will be if Harris gets elected.
I generally agree. There are some who believe that a palace coup has taken place (at the time Biden dropped out of the Presidential race), and that saner heads will prevail in Washington DC. We can hope this is the case.
“protect our supply of oil.”
Wait a second. Isn’t the US an oil net exporter?
the decision was made to turn the planet itself into cash.
that decision cannot be reversed
the usa must finally now consume itself to sustain its oil cashflow to keep that illusion alive.
that fallacy is not just confined to the USA, but they were the prime movers in this insanity.
Yes, but we can’t use a lot of our own oil ourselves because of its grade. That is shy we export so much of our oil. We have to import a different oil because of the grade and content. Plus, we want to have the middle east oil available in case we more of it. We also want to protect Europe’s supply of oil from there.
We also import oil from Canada, because it has the qualities we need.
The US has been a net exporter of crude oil since about 2020.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTNTUS2&f=M
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=a
Even if we are a net exporter, we need to protect this oil.
Comment from raviuppal: “The peak and decline of oil production will not be determined by geology as the Peak Oil movement expected
It will be determined by credit markets, geopolitics, a declining world economy/affordability, decreasingly effective governance, failing supply chains, & environmental collapse.”
Yes, because all of those things are interdependent, as is geology itself. I see this dialectical way of thinking about collapse becoming quite common and that’s certainly progress. With one caveat, that people usually see some connections but not others so that their conclusions align with their politics. On ofw itself we got the space miners, people who think giving things to the poor was a bad idea as if it was some individual choice rather than part of systemic historical change, Russia/China lovers etc etc. But something that underpins a lot of those views is the “grow local buy local” or “degrowth” perspective.
Collapse bloggers/commenters tend to be middle-class people, or eco-cabin types with modest intergenerational wealth. When they have the reality of no future for the current system staring them in the face the instinctive reaction is to envision a smaller, more stable & efficient version of what they experience in life or at work, e.g as corporate workers, professionals, small/medium business owners etc. There is hierarchy, surplus generation and individuals living their private lives but also contributing to the community. But it works well because it’s small-scale enough to be manageable… by people like them, without banksters screwing it up. The masses of slaves, serfs and savages are either dead from overshoot or lingering on somewhere else far away that’s really messed up.
What they seem to routinely fail to factor into that is the reality of the globalized world we inhabit. Just some things off the top of my head:
>Globalized production chains produce a whole lot more than pointless luxuries. You may not need bananas from Costa Rica but you do need fossil fuel inputs for your domestic staple crops.
>The ecological effects of the current system won’t go away in a future “grow local buy local” society and it’d be helpless to mitigate let alone remedy them without the resources and labour available to a global economy.
>The current human population will not reduce itself to a point where the buy local grow local can happen. That will be an extremely messy and violent process occurring in tandem with declining net energy/resources. All the latent contradictions of this global society would explode out into the open at global, regional and local levels. Basically no matter how good one’s plan to set up local civilization, it can’t resolve any of the inevitable contradictions of global civilization.
By the way what’s Fast Eddy up to these days?
These things are all aspects of how the self-organizing economy works. If there is not enough energy of the right types to go around, global supply chains will have to greatly slow down. Governments will have to shrink or disappear. Whole new methods will have to be developed to deal with overuse of resources. Leaving ground fallow for several years is a method sometimes used to help fertility.
It’s a self-organizing social system interacting with energy and resources. And a social system comprises people so to call it self-organizing is just saying that the people in this system are organizing. That’s the point that the comment by raviuppal is making, at least as I read it. You need both a social and physical analysis working in tandem, to explain how and why collapse happens.
“why collapse happens.”
Sometimes it is simple. The 1177 BC collapse was almost certainly caused by drought. That was also the case in the 1260 AD collapse of the Southwest corn farmers.
Global cooling from a large volcano eruption or overheating from greenhouse gases might collapse the food production. Hope this holds off till we can cope with it.
If an economy is close to limits, it is hard for it to store up surplus from one year to the next. This makes these economies much more vulnerable to temporary problems with drought or cold weather. The climate is always changing.
“close to limits”
With respect to food, most places the human race could deal with a serious primary cut in food production by diverting the food now fed to animals to humans. Would this be enough to prevent widespread starvation? Maybe, depends on how bad and how long it goes on. The 1177 BC drought lasted about 200 years. The 1260 drought lasted about 60 years.
“surplus from one year to the next. ”
At one time in the fairly recent past the US had several years of grain stored. The information does not seem to be available any more.
Now, I understand that China is the country that stores a large amount of grain.
There do seem to be sources of information on US grain in storage.
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Surveys/Guide_to_NASS_Surveys/Off-Farm_Grain_Stocks/index.php
This report is only through 2021:
https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/j3860694x/q811n776k/37722092n/2022_Agricultural_Statistics_Book.pdf
“China is the country”
China has a history of grain shortages causing a lot of unrest.
Interesting that the stocks at the end of a year are no more than a 3 months supply.
Stored grain needs to be circulated.
There’s always the underlying laws-of-physics reality — as fossil fuels deplete, it takes more & more resources to extract the same thing — in particular, SMD (sweet middle distillates) oil.
@Keith
The 1260 drought was human induced, namely the Mongols.
That’s an interesting statement. Do you have anything to back it up?
“Sometimes it is simple. The 1177 BC collapse was almost certainly caused by drought. That was also the case in the 1260 AD collapse of the Southwest corn farmers.”
I disagree. Drought was a catalyst not a cause of the bronze age collapse. Agricultural crisis rendered the violent contradictions already present in those social systems untenable even in the short to medium term. Their ability to mediate said contradictions was directly dependent upon extracting a certain level of agricultural surplus and that loss of productivity ruled it out. The vast majority of the people in those societies had no stake in their survival, quite the opposite. A phenomenon not too dissimilar to the collapse of antiquity itself 1500 years later.
“Global cooling from a large volcano eruption or overheating from greenhouse gases might collapse the food production. Hope this holds off till we can cope with it.”
We can cope with it right now, but not for much longer. In fact what I imagine someone like you envisions as a solution is extremely wasteful and if ventured would likely make the possibility of enacting actual solutions even more difficult than they are.
I don’t see that you are actually disagreeing with me.
There isn’t a consensus about what goes on today or in 1177 BC
But it seems likely that drought and famine if it goes on long enough will end a civilization.
“envisions as a solution”
I am not sure what you thing I think.
There is the coal and PV to diesel I have been talking about and the longer term AI/Nanotech world.
” . . . So, can it be a coincidence that the most
54:17 cataclysmic eruption of Hekla we know about was the one that took place
54:21 sometime around the Year 1100 BC, right as the Bronze Age collapse reached its
54:27 height? This eruption is known as Hekla 3. It threw nearly seven-and-a-half
54:34 cubic kilometers of volcanic rock into the atmosphere and covered the sky in a
54:39 dark shroud of dust that would have lasted for years after the event. In
54:43 Ireland, studies done on bog oaks, those are trees half-fossilized in marshy
54:49 waters, have shown that for 18 years after the eruption of Hekla 3, the trees
54:53 barely grew at all. Across the Atlantic in the United States,
54:58 Bristlecone Pines, the oldest living trees on earth, still show similar
55:03 records of this time of darkness and cooling which seems to have lasted about
55:07 two decades. The effect on our region would have been dramatic; crops
55:13 would have failed, soils would have blown away, and more than that; the dark cloud that
55:19 seemed to hang over the sun would have spoken to people of something dreadful
55:23 on its way, a punishment from the gods and perhaps even the end of the world. . . . ” ?
There really needs to be more work relating weather upsets to human problems. I think I have put up a pointer to the excellent Chinese work on this topic.
he is on substack
it’s pretty simple.
give human food and surplus energy, breed breed breed.
politics and whatever is just attempts to redistribute the resources
breed breed breed stops working, humans go to war
not sure what else there is to think about. elites wanted a controlled society of stratified classes, perfectly engineered for every role, or robotics/AI transhumans so that chaos could be managed. if everyone had 150 iq and were honest, maybe a consensus could be reached for managed breeding. nothing else matters. human greed means extract extract and grow grow. why elites espouse technocracy is because it is related to mathematics of energy; limit of flux, in/out balance and perfect management of resources. that reality will not materialize however. not sure what is historic change or whatever. countries behave just like thermodynamic entities, removing work/heat and dissipating into entropy — staying alive by grabbing more resources from conquest and whatnot. as long as a system is interdependent, it is fragile and non-robust.
Interesting . 27 min read .
https://sjgenco.medium.com/what-are-we-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-collapse-94f4e617e2e0
Subtitle is,
“Collapse is likely to come in waves, knowing why and when they happen could save your life.”
Need to join Medium to view article.
The wars to grab resources from hands who are unlikely to lead the world to the next stage of civilization is important and necessary.
Israel is doing its part, but sooner or later all of the West will have to do what it has to stay alive, and maintain civilization, or be overwhelmed by the Hordes.
“Unlikely to lead the world to the next stage of civilization” The problem is due to resource depletion, we are eventually headed back to the stone age. Civilization in and of itself is unsustainable, you will simply end up committing mass genocide to try and prevent the inevitable.
Kul, have you ever heard of the Olduvai Theory?
You could reduce global human living standards to that which existed ten thousand years ago and you still wouldn’t have enough resources available for your Star Trek fantasy.
We need multiple planet Earths worth of resources.
dennis knows how to fix that
Advanced engineering will use a lot of carbon. Nanotubes, graphene, diamond, etc,
I wonder if the next carbon crisis will be too little.
we are a carbon based life form
we will consume ourselves
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-vs-china-which-country-worlds-1-superpower
US Vs China: Which Country Is The World’s #1 Superpower?
This graphic compares the U.S. and China across eight key measures of power, based on analysis from Ray Dalio’s Great Powers Index 2024:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Eight_Measures_of_Power_CHN_US.jpg
I don’t agree with Dalio’s ratings. We can see which key measures of power are going away. Both countries have problems now.
It says USA and China economies are the same size. It’s bunk.
“same size”
I don’t find that unreasonable. China has about 3 times the US population so the per capita number is about 1/3 of the US.
UK Says Goodbye To Coal
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/uk-says-goodbye-coal
The UK closing its last coal mine.
The UK joining Germany in descending into the energy abiss.
Remarkably, after huge increases in the rates for electricity caused by renewables, they continue to gaslight everyone saying the “renewables” are lower cost.
US coal extraction is falling also, but not as rapidly.
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec1_5.pdf
US coal production is about half of its peak, as measured in Quadrillion Btus.
“UK Says Goodbye To Coal”
That’s like when you get dumped you turn around and tell your friends and family that your ex didn’t leave you , you broke up with them because of their negative attitude.
Jersey Shore Wind Power Project Stalls After Having A “Hard Time” Finding Someone To Manufacture Turbine Blades
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jersey-shore-wind-power-project-stalls-after-having-hard-time-finding-someone-manufacture
I love this…the lies and the fraud of “green”, low cost energy eventually rise to the top.
Notice how the left, who formerly dangled the fake carrot of low cost renewables, has now pivoted to the NEW carrot of green hydrogen.
If these wind turbines ever work, they will produce very expensive electricity.
Dumb , dumber , dumbest .
https://news.sky.com/story/southern-water-considering-shipping-supplies-from-norway-to-uk-due-to-drought-fears-13222811
The article concludes:
“”We’re committed to continuing to work with our regulators on developing the right solutions to meet the challenge of water scarcity, while protecting the environment.”
How about limiting manufacturing and also population, particularly immigrants? There is an awfully lot of pressure on water supply.
The problem with decreasing population is that there will eventually not be enough workers to keep the system going. Production, delivery, and maintenance will not be sustained. But if population is not reduced system will break down for lack of supplies and resources. Major problems ahead either way.
I am afraid you are correct.
“Major problems ahead”
Between AI and nanotechnology (i.e., the singularity) there are major solutions ahead as well. No guarantee of course, but at the rate things are moving, it isn’t going to take long.
i think my brain has reached singularity
i have one cell left
what should i do with it?
what do you mean by production delivery and maintenance. the only thing you need is food production, waste management, infrastructure maintenance. everything else is waste and non-essential. and information infrastructure. just how many high IQ people do you need to occupy those slots? theres a billion in china and they are all laying flat, so no you do not need a large population. you need a minimum viable minimum IQ, healthy non-old age population to do all those tasks
I was referring to manufacturing production, industrial production, not food production. Takes s lot of iron, steel, minerals, mining, transportation, and so forth to keep all the factories, ships, trucks, trains, and cars moving to maintain an advanced industrial society like we have today in the developed nations.
the problem is demographics, the young and the old are non productive. The young can mature and become productive and a good society, the old in western society are a cost. Unfortunate, but true.
Dennis L.
“the old ”
I happen to know the Chinese have an interest in de-aging people.
where do i sign up for de aging Keith
sounds good to me
At the moment you have to do it yourself.
Google the subject. I know some of the researchers.
i knew there’d be a catch.
i was thinking more of half a dozen nubile young floozies in white coats, desperate to convince me, and themselves i was 30 again.
no chance of that i guess?
People used to work as long as they were able. In fact, people seem to live longer if they feel that they are filling a useful purpose. Perhaps they can help with caring for children, or help with cooking meals.
you are quite right Gail
i ”retired” 20 years ago, and am busier than ever writing and talking.
yesterday i shifted half a ton of cut logs, 12” diameter, not thick twigs.
no aches or pains today, didnt even break sweat
swam my mile at lunchtime.
gotta keep at it, stop an you’re dead
not ready for a headfreeze just yet.
89 next week.
“stop eating food,—-instead, pour boiling water on a mass of paper money—mash it into a porridge and live on it for a month.
and watch yourself starve to death.'”
You sound depressed, Norman. Someone needs to a wellness check in on you to make sure you’re okay.
Growing large quantities of food won’t be necessary when robots do most of the work. Robot can wait decades until what they need is available.
Norman makes a good point. Pixels on a screen don’t feed us either.
its called dealing in reality
Can’t resist.
It is nothing a cubic mile of Pt can’t solve.
Dennis L.
???????????? If there is 10 years of USABLE energy left and billions of angry people that lost their standard of living, how are ROBOTs that require MINING and LONG supply chains and HIGH IQ populations going to spontaneously materialize??? Are you going to drop a selective human bomb that wipes out 90% of the humans that are old aged???
please stop dealing in reality ni67—you are upsetting the fantasists
Hassan Nasrallah killed, Hezbollah confirms.
This is good?
Just more chaos there as Iran now has to get involved more actively
I see something impossible to be justified that a foreign country kills with a bombardment a political leader of another Country.
Under this way of behaviour it means, for example, that Israel or US should accept that a foreign Country kills with a bombardment someone important in their own Country.
This is a major escalation; I worry about the Iranian response and a regional war. I hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but I wonder if a regional war and oil price shock is the point of this, to cover for the economic problems we currently have. We are not privy to what America and Israel are planning behind closed doors.
I had expressed the same fear yesterday .
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/09/11/crude-oil-extraction-may-be-well-past-peak/comment-page-5/#comment-469529
One thing is certain that it will push the BRICS and others to accelerate the process of de dollarization .
Good point! Need to move away from these folks!
I just got back from driving 1000 km. I mourn the passing of the great man.
A point of view .
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/israels-short-lived-glory-celebrated?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=149472538&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=26quge&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Suddenly out of the blue . Escalation .
https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/us-offers-20-million-for-info-on-iranian-accused-of-plot-to-kill-john-bolton-5731151
Some posts on X ,
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/forums/topic/debt-rattle-september-28-2024/page/2/#post-169977
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/forums/topic/debt-rattle-september-28-2024/page/2/#post-169978
https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1840139454196961592
Details about retaliation against Israel.
US Offers $20 Million for Info on Iranian Accused of Plot to Kill John Bolton
Shahram Poursafi allegedly tried to hire ‘criminal elements’ within the United States to kill John Bolton in exchange for $300,000.
From this:
Not a good situation at all.
Copy/paste TAE .
“• Nasrallah’s Death ‘Devastating Blow’, Will Trigger Escalation of Violence (Sp.)
I am surprisingly shocked and alarmed by this. “Gangbankers, soldiers…it’s all part of The Plan! But kill one Nasallah, and everybody loses their minds!!!” That’s me. I lost my mind a little from this. That’s still in me when I thought it wasn’t, being all cool n’ cynical n’ s—t. Okay, what happens now? Well there’s your problem, throw your AI in the sea: nobody knows. By removing him, you’ve opened complete chaos, word which is much used incorrectly, but it more accurately, randomness, unpredictable, nobody knows. As a military, you don’t want to attack the utterly unpredictable. So…how do you plan for it now? That’s most of what military is. And logistics, the hard end of the same problem.
WOODEN TURBINES
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NYI4LJdM18&t=54s
Wooden turbines are being presented as more ecologically sustainable because, they can be recycled and they can withstand the saline from the ocean better.
What no one feels comfortable mentioning is the source of all this new wood to use for large scale wind turbines. Europe ran into problems with severe deforestation at the end of the Middle Ages because they starting using a lot of wood to make sail ships in addition for energy. I can’t find the citation but I know I’m not imagining this.
If the world embarks on making wood only turbines I can only see history repeating itself on a global scale.
i sometimes think there should be an oscar ceremony for the daftest ideas on OFW
We can look at what the US government has loaned money for to get some ideas.
Norm,
Expect only 20% of the ideas to be generally correct. Focusing only on what does not work causes one to miss opportunity.
Dennis L.
More likely 1%. 20% is an invention of Joseph Juran in 1941. Times have changed.
I don’t see anything wrong with the idea. Thanks for posting nope.
keith
just a gentle reminder, that until 17oo, the rate of growth and expansion of humankind was roughly the same speed as tree growth.
and why, after about 1750, industrialists had to mint their own coins, because population growth outstripped conventional supplies of coins.
I agree.
Wood supply looks renewable, but it is very easy to overuse the supply we have. Also, forests are meant to be self-organizing systems, with their own pattern of mixed species growth. Like all ecosystems, they go through cycles. Fire is often part of this natural cycle; it is even necessary for the propagation of some species of trees.
Disturbing . This still happens in India .
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/class-2-student-killed-school-hostel-hathras-up-to-bring-glory-fame-2607216-2024-09-27?onetap=true
We know that historically, many populations have killed some of their children. It can be sacrifice of the first-born, or lethal games meant to kill some teen-agers. Or it can be customs that tell mothers of twins or triplets to only feed the strongest of the babies.
These patterns make sense, if overpopulation is becoming a problem. I believe that India is as likely as anywhere to be experiencing a problem with overpopulation. While the number of births per mother has recently dropped to about 2.0, life expectancies keep increasing. It is these higher life expectancies that lead to the overpopulation problem. Every year, out migration exceeds in migration, indicating that people in India expect better financial/energy availability outcomes if they migrate elsewhere.
As distasteful as it sounds to most people today, keeping population down relative to resources truly is a way to insure prosperity of the rest of the population. So the Indian custom is not all wrong.
” As distasteful as it sounds to most people today, keeping population down relative to resources truly is a way to insure prosperity of the rest of the population. So the Indian custom is not all wrong.” You are wrong because you are ill informed .
It is an indication of the lack of ” scientific temper ” , illiteracy and superstition that exists in society . This heinous act was done on the instruction of a ” godman ” . In India ” godmen ” , astrology ,exorcism etc and similar occupations are big business . 50% of the world’s illiterates are in India .
I guess we need to impose the scientific and rational methods of trade sanctions, dropping some bombs on them and building a few colleges on top of the rubble to get them to abandon these barbaric practices.
At least you are acknowledging that barbaric practises still occur in India because some people still hold onto old beliefs.
Here, in America, it is considered racist to suggest some immigrants will hold onto old customs, especially if they are coming from the lower classes. According to the experts, no immigrants defecate on the streets California, its not the homeless, either, no one is sure who is doing it, no one brings old customs like animal sacrifice with them to America….the mainstream view is that these are lies and immigrants magically assimilate into WASP social norms.
The same people who believe in instant assimilation believe that homosexuals used to be polygamous until legal gay marriage made the majority of them monogamous. They believe that gay marriage along with other rights granted to homosexuals made them start behaving more like wasp couples because legal discrimination and segregation laws against them were removed.
In America, sociology informs our views of people.
I think the self-organizing system pushes changes along.
When the death rate of babies was high, homosexuality was definitely discouraged because many new births were needed.
As the world gets filled with too many people, and health care keeps most babies alive, the situation changes. Also, the lack of jobs that pay well makes it hard to find suitable spouses. Setting up a same sex arrangement makes it possible to get together with someone else without having to worry about children increasing the overall cost.
Also, with the lack of advancement available, people need a different way to excel. A few people can stand out thanks to sex change operations and strange dress.
I haven’t checked the accuracy of this, but I’m just blown away by the ability of ChatGPT to summarize data. It would take me a really long time to do this by hand, reading through papers and textbooks etc:
Make a table with the following columns: (1) neuron type name (2) cortical column layer (3) destination neuron type (4) destination cortical column layer (5) local vs long range connection (6) inhibitory or excitatory (7) cell types providing input (8) input cell layer.
Response table (a linked image since I can’t post a table properly in wordpress)
https://picallow.com/neurons/
Thanks, haven’t had time to explore this, use Copilot.
It is difficult to know where all this will go, electronic circuits come to mine.
Dennis L.
An update – as I keep compiling data, I’m finding that some of the data it provides is inconsistent / self-contradictory. This is before even verifying against any human-generated resources. The bummer about this is I’m just asking it for facts; I’m not even asking for it to perform any reasoning. This is with ChatGPT version 4o, which I hear was recently surpassed by o1.
Copilot will do the same thing occasionally.
Dennis L.
Gen Z Reveal the Degrees They Studied Vs. Their Jobs Now: ‘Tragic’
https://www.newsweek.com/generation-z-degrees-versus-their-jobs-1958394
Agroup of Generation Zers have gone viral after revealing the degrees they studied, compared to the jobs they are now having to do despite their qualifications.
..Indeed, a study published in early 2024 by the Burning Glass Institute and the Strada Education Foundation found that 52 percent of graduates worked jobs that didn’t require a degree a year after graduating. Additionally, 45 percent were in the same boat a decade after finishing college, too.
The results highlighted the importance of the first job out of college, as 79 percent of graduates who start out with a college level job remain in this level of occupation for five years. Meanwhile, 73 percent of graduates who start out underemployed (taking a job that doesn’t require a degree) remain so 10 years later.
One comment reads: “This is tragic. We told 100% of kids to go to college, when only 25% of jobs require a degree. So then, those that do require a degree are smothered in resumes.”
Another Instagram user wrote: “This is reality if I’ve ever seen it.”
Boggs said she plans on staying in Europe for a while longer, and then in the future she is considering moving toward a role in marketing.
LOL…when I was in college business my majors first signed up for Accounting 2/3rds failure rate), then went to Finance and stepped down to Management or Marketing as a weeding out method
Cushy jobs can only exist when there is surplus energy and low population. One billion people with papers means nothing when everything is scarce.
There is nothing humans do that is valuable to each other other than manufacturing, mining, minor engineering, transporting and food production.
No leftover energy plus minimum wage and surplus population equals no work for anyone. Also economics that is keynesian is non-logical. If there is 10 people capable of doing the thing, it would be best to distribute it into 10 shifts with a guaranteed standard of living so each person only has to work 1 or 2 days rather than having 5 unemployed and 1 person living the cushy life.
Very true, remember reading in a book about the Great Depression and the authors father out to him whatever his chosen profession do not become an architect like him.
Seems he could not find any employment as such during those years and was fearful they might return after the war.
a house is a block of embodied surplus energy
no surplus energy, and housing is reduced to a minimum.
“a house is a block of embodied surplus energy”
I helped my dad build a house in 1958-60. I could probably quantify the energy we used to build it and the energy in the components we used. It might get kind of sticky if you included the sunlight that fell on the trees that became the lumber we used. The cement and block walls would not be as hard. But whatever energy when into the construction and materials, it was 65 years ago. So the energy, whatever it is needs to be divided by 65 to get a yearly amount.
However, the utility energy happens every year. I am sure the yearly amount exceeds the total that was used to run saws and cement mixers, it might be more than the total including materials by now.
“no surplus energy, and housing is reduced to a minimum.”
Might be. But there are lots of houses in the UK that were built before they started mining coal.
agreed
a ”cruck” house is based on a curved oak tree sawn lengthways into quarters to make two end gables.
oak trees have always been expensive
oak trees are embodied sunshine, as was the thatch that made the roof, the watlle that made the walls, and the cow dung mixed with straw to make the ”daub”
the energy used is the fixed amount used in the year it was built—but they still represent embodied energy of that time.
there are several near me, 14th/15th c built without coal–coal had nothing to do with building them.
annual energy use is that used in ongoing maintenance.—i recall that replacement windows cost more than the original house, but that was purely in money terms.
Hand labor and the use of stones for materials can be used for housing. I believe that this is what underlies some of Europe’s very old homes.
Some parts of the world use biomass with hand labor. This housing tends not to be very durable, but it is easily replaced.
Having insulation, heat, running water, and electricity are modern innovations, mostly made possible by fossil fuels. Burning logs for heat works for a while, but it tends to use up local supply, especially if metals must also be smelted with charcoal. If metal use can be avoided, and heated homes can be avoided, it is much easier to have homes that can be built by inhabitants.
if you use hand chisels to cut stones and carry them, the house still embodies the energy used by human muscle
Right. Different kind of energy.
“Different kind of energy.”
It is all measured in J (watt seconds). What has astounded me recently is the vast amount of energy it takes to grow food. Sunlight energy to food energy is something like 1000 to one.
But energy products are very different from each other. Even food products are very different from each other. We could not live on all carrots or all lettuce. Energy products have to work within the built infrastructure, just as food products have to work within the human body.
In theory, it is possible to rebuild the infrastructure to use somewhat different energy products, but even trying to do this uses a huge amount of energy of specific kinds. It likely takes a great deal of time and human ingenuity, as well. The human body can gradually change a bit over time, and it can adapt itself to a different food mixes, but there are limits.
“energy products are very different from each other”
If you are willing to take the conversion loss and can afford the capital, engineers can figure out out how to convert one energy source to another.
This is done on a grad scale where the energy in natural gas is converted to electric power. Combined cycle turbines reach as high as 60%.
I have mentioned the plant that makes methane from coal. It could make diesel, jet fuel, or gasoline.
We are having difficulty with total supply. Doing these conversions will make the total quantity extractable each year problem a whole lot worse. We also don’t have the time needed.
“We also don’t have the time needed.
Oryx
Construction of the plant started in 2003. The plant began production in 2007.[2]
Is that short enough?
“that can be built by inhabitants.”
Possible now, but the skill set needed is large. I spent one summer putting in sewer pipes that I think would have been familiar to the Romans. On the other hand, it has lasted 65 years. That may be longer than you get out of plastic pipe.
“But there are lots of houses in the UK that were built before they started mining coal.”
Keith, houses built before industrialization have been renovated over the years with fossil fuels and fossil fuel derived products such as materials made in factories.
Before fossil fuels, houses were made with local labor meaning the labor of young men. Before fossil fuels, it would take much more than the labor of two men to build the smallest home for a family.
Keith
if you want to have your mind blown by what (literally) one man and a hammer and chisel over 30 years is capable of in terms of making a home.
take a look at this (it’s about 10 miles from me)
even you might be lost for words
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-66325731
Wow!
Since plants and animals are (up to now, and likely will always be) the most efficient real-time converters of solar energy into energy humans can use, all these other proposed, less-efficient artificial systems are a waste of time. They themselves are only a fleeting product of the fading surplus-energy bonanza.
I know you won’t agree, but this just seems obvious to me.
“obvious to me.”
I know both subjects. Plants are seldom better than 1%. Corn on the very best day might run 3% but over a year, much lass.
PV is typically 20% so we are talking about a 20 to one advantage at least.
It’s just numbers.
last time i had pv for lunch, it didnt taste very good keith.
i was constipated for a week afterwards
Keith, that’s not net the energy required to make the panels, is it?
Not sure what you want to know.
Corn wins. https://energyskeptic.com/2015/tilting-at-windmills-spains-solar-pv/
We are living in a world of bad models.
When it comes to the question of, “How do we make our people rich?” the answer has been, “Educate them. If 10% of the population can be rich because of advanced education, certainly many more can–even 70% or 90%.”
The problem is that the economy doesn’t need all of these folks with advanced education. There is diminishing returns to added education.
We are finding now that China, India and other countries can follow this same pattern, and churn out lots of computer programmers. This means that the world economy has more computer programmers than it really needs, especially in older languages or applications. Many older programmers in their 40s or 50s find themselves squeezed out of high-paying computer jobs.
People don’t stop to think that there are only so many high paying jobs available. If there is a sudden law that proportional shares of these jobs must go to certain preferred categories (such as women, Blacks, handicapped), there will be fewer of these jobs available to white males and other discriminated against classes.
“only so many high paying jobs available.”
This isn’t a new problem. Clark discusses what he calls downward social mobility where the children of the wealthy (on average) moved down the social ladder because there were not enough slots for them at the top.
in pre-industrial society… 98% of the population– in various ways, worked in jobs that related to food production, because that was our primary energy source.
their labour supported the 2% who did not.
————————-
but in our industrial society, 2% work in primary energy production.
their labour supports the 98% who do not.
when that 98% figure out that that 2% rug is being pulled from under them, no level of AI is going to prevent the ensuing catastrophe of violence.
in 17th century France, real peasants (without additional activities) constitute 25% of the population, the rest are always dual active (diffuse crafts), most often benefiting from a plot of land equal to a garden. This is cultivated very intensively. The average surface area of farms is less than 5 hectares, closer to 3. The country is very largely, from this time, in a proto-industrialization dependent on the renewable energies of the time (500,000 water, wind and tide mills in 1800).
The complementary activity is necessary to have the liquidity to pay taxes. Roughly speaking, the garden must provide at least 80% of food.
Voltaire “we must cultivate our garden” Candide.
I have book marked your blog . Interesting .
A companion of the Tour de France builds a house (with 2 helpers) in one day.
All the wood was prepared in advance in a sawmill.
But the companions are a very well-prepared elite. A highly qualified workforce.
Even today, they are twice as expensive as the others.
Mike Rowe has been hammering this for years.
He’s been actively touting trade jobs.
Kamala just proposed eliminating degree requirements for some Federal jobs.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-says-she-will-cut-degree-requirements-certain-federal-jobs-2024-09-14/
This is a wild speculation but maybe Harris is signaling to the country that the government can’t afford to hire as many college graduates as it did in the past because they have become too expensive. Positions that don’t require a degree offer lower wages.
Sharyl Attkinson has a book out some people may be interested in. It is called “Follow the Science: How Big Pharma Misleads, Obscures, and Prevails Hardcover – September 3, 2024″
Some of the write up says:
Epoch Times also has a video interview with her, with a written transcript.
Safe and effective…
Hope and change…
We are your one source of truth (A NZ specialty)
Orchestrated Litany of Lies (ditto)
Trust me, I am from the Govt..
Temu
Alibaba
Expiry dates on food
Extra Virgin Olive oil from your local branch of the Mafia.
Not just Pharma, but right across industry, politics, education…make it a big lie, rinse and repeat, and repeat, and repeat…..
Trust horizon continues to shrink at pace.
It works a lot of time, especially on the more impressionable members of the population.
Lady Gaga is a good musician.
Apple makes the best smartphones.
Last week.
Congress is passing bills for “mass causality” events where they may have to replace people in moment’s notice in emergency. -WAPO
And today the NFL and FEMA announced they would work together with 4 or 5 stadiums to be used in an emergency like extreme weather or pandemic for hospitals in emergency. -NFL
There is no ‘out’ to bail to.
Preparing for war? Or something that today substitutes for war?
They are preparing to “quarantine” non vaxxers during the next fake pandemic.
They have a great track record of keeping everyone safe.
I remember the inhabitants of the U.S.A. beaming with
pride over the government response to Hurricane Katrina.
SUPERDOME
SUPERDOME
SUPERDOME
Nice summary of oil production/costs/current prices.
Why experts got it wrong?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUyfVRwQk7E
BRICS seems to have something to do with this.
He mentions bypassing US companies, bummer.
Also mentioned EVs.
We, US, are going to need harder work, more intense.
For our producers, global markets are going away. around 7 minutes.
US/British(?) banks are being bypassed, loss of data. Seizing Russian reserves in Europe is mentioned.
Mentions using sanctioned banks, well if you can’t do business the idea is nothing to lose. Imagine being cancelled and the cancilie doesn’t care.
Ah, things are changing.
Dennis L.
I still wonder how much oil is traded in the world outside the petro $ markets — by BRICS, etc?
If I am understanding this correctly, we no longer know or know much less than before, China is abandoning the dollar and apparently selling treasuries for commodities or RE, or whatever.
In my case, we apparently know much less about grains their trading amounts and trading values.
Dennis L.
a wild guess: 20% of total. Corresponding to most of the production of Iran and Russia.
They are not going to finance your pie in the sky schemes, being more pragmatic.
When the Hordes win, they would rather build larger palaces and larger stuff, not the stuff you want to be accomplished.
Time will tell, I have made a guess, stated it, stand by it. If it works, it is right, if it doesn’t it is wrong.
Dennis L.
Well stated.
It is not too hard to predict the future with available data
And given available resources my theories have a greater chance of success
“with available data”
Given the available data at the time, did you or could you have predicted the rise of cell phones?
After pagers and mp3 and chips getting smaller, it was in the realm of possibilitu
Hubbs mentioned this video also. See my response to him about it here:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/09/11/crude-oil-extraction-may-be-well-past-peak/comment-page-5/#comment-469550
I am getting a bad feeling about the ME . If Hezbollah falls than Iran will have no alternative but to get involved directly in the turmoil . That would be a disaster . Let us not forget they do control still many more small militias and the Strait of Hormuz . Or maybe this is is what the elite want– to blame the coming financial apocalypse on Putin and Iran . As Roosevelt told the oligarchs ” only I stand between the pitchforks and you ” to get their nod on his programs , only Hezbollah stands between the total war in the ME . Thinking out loud .
Even if there is total war in the Middle East, my impression now is that the US doesn’t want to get involved, regardless of whether Trump or Harris is involved. They would rather let Europe fall on its face in this war.
Mutually assured destruction is still at work. I was tenser a month ago. It now seems that the US soft coup hypothesis has legs, and America will not escalate anything until the next president. Yes, we live day by day.
My impression is that we may have a war of attrition in the ME, which will probably (and if the case, progressively..) substitute (or make less important) the war of attrition in Ukraine.
Many actors may be in-directly involved.
Israel seems to me the example of how clever and accultured people, but ideologically and fundamentalist-mind driven, can be unintentionally, but inexorably, suicidal.
This is to confirm the death of Hassan Nasrallah , the chief of Hezbollah . Quo Vadis ?
Unravelling the BS of ” Drill , baby drill ” .
https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/trumps-three-arrows?utm_campaign=Weekly%20Blog%20Notification&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8q3D1IFrUdG0SutA8gM3XULaR_gn4sKDJzdYDpEiQoPL_Rb9x7NH_WS4oYST0qB0gM0u3VFscJJ3hKmC5k6CoyGDo9xQ&_hsmi=326608808&utm_content=326608808&utm_source=hs_email
“our analysis indicates that U.S. shale oil and natural gas have peaked.”
I have been coming to this conclusion as well. US natural gas production is already down. Oil is very close to falling because of too much produced water, and difficulty reinjecting this without causing earthquakes or worse yet, damaging fresh water supply.
Well, Norm, glad you mentioned that. Space, space has resources, it has Pt.
Not greedy, only need a cubic mile.
Space has endless energy.
Space has a garbage dump, Jupiter.
Soon robots in space, exploring, mining, extracting, manufacturing.
Next problem please.
Dennis L.
Here you go .
https://9gag.com/gag/aDY04XB
Although I understand why you said that , I hate Eisenhower.
He used logistics as an excuse to award most of Central Europe to USSR, something which can never be forgiven.
Without his lame excuse of logistics, WW2 in Europe would have ended in 1944, and the Japanese could go and screw itself.
We did get the Interstate Highway System out of that logistics obsession, though, and lots of happy motoring thereby.
“Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics” – Gen.Bradley
Logistics definition
1. The aspect of military operations that deals with the procurement, distribution, maintenance, and replacement of materiel and personnel.
2. The management of the details of an operation.
3. That branch of the military art which embraces the details of moving and supplying armies. The meaning of the word is by some writers extended to include strategy.
/me hands dennis a mirror
there’s your problem
Next problem – the Hordes marching to the West and end all of your dream projects.
A milkmaid’s dream
https://youtu.be/wHLVnT3zc84?si=f5uFdF-w7xCdgf5Q
While you are dreaming about your castle in the sky the Hordes march and set fire to your farm and now you have to scourge for your own food.
This is what the guns are for. Not to mention nukes.
And the Hordes also have them , plus the resources to make more of such
The hordes require energy to march…that means food to eat along the way…more or less continuously. Logistics ultimately means they will be limited in their march. The question is when that limitation happens.
Plenty of Hordes already in USA
And the southern border is open, admitting more and more Hordes
There’s a link between prostate cancer and a known “herbicde”, Agent Orange.
It seems like it isn’t easy to develop a herbicide that only kills plant cells and doesn’t have a negative effect on human cells.
Kevin Walmsley explaining the reason behind the big miss by western banks in the price of oil. Most had thought it would average $90/B for 2024 and instead it is down around 73.
Use of BRICS banks/payment systems to bypass the dollar means it’s difficiult for western banks and financial analysts to determine the actual price and demand for oil as increased amount of oil being transacted by Iran, China,Venezuela, Russia outside the “system.”
Not sure if we can even get an accurate picture of the so called “demand destruction” which might explain contradictory drop in oil price even as there is inflation.
For a long time, it seems like we have been seeing forecasts that oil prices will go through the roof because production is not keeping up with demand.
The self-organizing system seems to work in many ways so that this situation doesn’t happen in practice. Just one of them is arranging a different payment system among the BRICS nations, which is what Kevin Walmsley is talking about. Another is high wage disparity. A third is rising interest rates. Another way may be dock strikes so that cargo cannot get through.
Forecasters think that they know more than they do. Ultimately, the issue is lack of affordability.
I found this informative.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIq0o40Jo80&t=1806s
Under “more” there is a Show Notes section.
It seems actionable which for this optimist is always important.
Around 30 minutes Nate mentions our(US) situation in oil as a positive.
Dennis L.
That is called ‘grasping for straws’.
Nate mentioned the US fossil fuel supply as a positive, but it is rapidly disappearing as a positive.
There is a link to an interesting video about the Permian and the problem with too much produced water (really salty brine) causing earthquakes. If they try injecting the water at a shorter depth, it could get into the water supply. It looks like production may need to be cut back.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/09/11/crude-oil-extraction-may-be-well-past-peak/comment-page-5/#comment-469472
See also my response to the comment.
Natural gas production for the US seems to be down recently.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9070us2m.htm
A big issue seems to be natural gas prices that fall too low for producers.
US coal production is way down also. It seems to be way down from back in the 1990s. The year 2024 is down from 2023.
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec6_3.pdf
Now for a little laugh. Electrical Ferrari! The article is notable for its ballskitting level, even compared to the lofty standards of the western press (edited crucial word to avoid getting thrown into mod once again)
https://www.lastampa.it/tecnologia/dossier/italian-tech-week-2024/2024/09/27/news/benedetto_vigna_la_ferrari_elettrica_sara_intelligente_ed_emozionante-423521679/?ref=LSHA-PS-P2-S1-T1
This Electric Ferrari article says:
https://www.caranddriver.com/ferrari/roma
“The price of the 2024 Ferrari Roma starts at $247,308 and goes up to $281,920 depending on the trim and options.”
Creeping hyperinflation.
Long extension cord is optional.
Dennis L.
The peak and decline of oil production will not be determined by geology as the Peak Oil movement expected
It will be determined by credit markets, geopolitics, a declining world economy/affordability, decreasingly effective governance, failing supply chains, & environmental collapse.
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/1839274715346600232/photo/1
I think we are very far from environmental collapse. The rest of course applies.
I agree, we are very far from environmental collapse.
Just went to Wally World Super and filled up my grocery cart full and good to go for another week…
Meanwhile..
Can’t post because of moderation
Major port strike incoming on Tuesday!
Port workers strike could snarl the supply chain and bust your holiday budget
“Americans could face high prices and shortages again this holiday season but this time, it would be because of a worker strike instead of a global pandemic.
As of Thursday, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) said labor talks with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) remain at a standstill, and about 45,000 of its union workers at 36 East coast and Gulf Coast ports are ready to walk on Oct. 1 for the first time since 1977.
A strike could lead to shortages of certain items and boost prices for voters already frustrated with housing and food inflation, experts said. The ports handle about half of U.S. ocean imports, including food, clothing, auto parts, cars shipped via container and holiday toys, experts said.
“A supply chain disruption would undoubtedly lead to price increases across the board and would impact consumers’ ability to find the toys they are looking for in the weeks and months ahead,” said Greg Ahearn, president and chief executive of The Toy Association.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2024/09/27/port-workers-strike-supply-chain-impact-higher-prices/75384739007/
The port strike should be a major worry. The East Coast ports will disproportionately to related to trade with Europe and Africa. Perhaps this needs to be cut back.
Could this be the October surprise we’ve all been waiting for?
It might also be that the powers that be are facilitating this strike as a way of capping energy consumption.
Here’s an “MUST SEE” interview with the guy presiding over ILA President Harold J. Daggett from about 3 weeks ago. He’s a very articulate and passionate working-class guy who is fighting hard for the survival of working people. It’s an uphill battle.
The blurb:
ILA President Harold J. Daggett tackles a wide range of subjects from the history of containerization to devastating impact of job killing automation for ILA and workers around the world in this candid question-and-answer session. The ILA leader discusses the real threat of a coast-wide strike in October 2024 as ILA employers are failing to fairly compensate ILA longshore workers from the billion dollar profits they are earning in recent years.
Comments from retail associations: The American Apparel and Footwear Association estimates that 53% of all US apparel, footwear, and accessories imports are routed through the East and Gulf Coast ports.
Forbes, October 31, 2019: Less Than 3% Of The Apparel Americans Wear Is Made In The U.S., But This Company Is Changing That
round that 3% up to 5%
50.35% of all US apparel is imported through East and Gulf Ports
44.65% of all US apparel is imported through West coast ports
• The U.S. apparel market was valued at $368 billion in 2020.
• The U.S. apparel retail industry employs over 1.8 million people.
• Online apparel sales in the U.S. reached $100 billion in 2020.
• The average annual expenditure on clothing by a U.S. consumer was $996 in 2020. – Worldmetrics.org
US held the 28th spot among the largest container shipping companies with a 0.2% of the global market and operated 29 ships, The #1 company MSC operates 801 ships.- Wikipedia dated February 2024
take 60% for overhead and profit and there goes $147 billion out of the US economy each year
“You look Mahhvelous”
Copy/paste
Onshoring requires supply chains and skills that do not exist. This is a pipe dream which I’m sure has a lot of opposition from important business people who don’t believe in “going backwards “.
I am afraid you are right.
A lot of things go together to make production fall.
Civilization does not always progress. It does regress a lot many times.
The Roman Empire was a huge regression from the Greek Civilization. Other than Lucretius, whose book was buried until around 15th century, the Roman Empire did not have any kind of philosophy to speak of. Epictetus , a freed slave, was not a Roman, and Marcus Aurelius, the only philosopher Rome produced, wrote in Greek.
If there is something which could be called civilization 2000 years later, they will say that the American Empire would be a big regression on history. The only philosopher worth noting who came from USA was William James, who, like Lucretius, came before USA assumed a global supremacy and his younger brother Henry could not tolerate the backwardness of USA and moved to United Kingdom which he thought was more civilized.
USA was built by the lower classes of the Elizabethan era, a complex the Americans always tried to shake off, but ultimately failed.
Why the Providence , or whatever you might call it, decided to give USA so much power and resources is hard to tell. It would have been like giving an autistic person a huge amount of resources, but the person does not change – it still acts autistic now.
Yes. I’m currently reading ‘Portrait of a Lady’. The difference between Britain, and indeed Europe more widely, on the one hand, and the United States on the other, is one of the central themes of the novel.
I don’t disagree with any of it. I stress what Kulm implies, that the USA is largely a geological accident. Kulm, what is the name of that line that divided civilized Europe from non-civilized?
You are thinking of the ‘Hajnal Line’ I presume, although I don’t really agree with it.
All these bounties were given to a people who ultimately failed to utilize them.
As an autistic person I’m irritated by your comparison of autistics to the US of A as well as your implication that “autistic” is some sort of deficiency that can and/or needs to be changed. Please consider what effect your words may have on others before making such comparisons.
I have a son who is high-functioning autistic. He is a great programmer, but he knows he is not good at seeing the big picture or at supervising others. He feels as you do–he is fine as he is; there is no need to change/
My son has done very well at finding jobs and keeping them as long as the economy would permit (until jobs outsourced to low-income countries). The economy needs a wide range of personality types. Autistic people can fit in.
Kulm has a lot of opinions that most of the rest of us don’t necessarily agree with.
My mind immediately went to Seneca… a favourite around these parts. But, it turns out he was born in Spain. So, I guess he doesn’t count.
Spain is within the Hajnal line so he does count, except for Andalusia so he does count
He was born in Andalusia, but during his lifetime it was part of the European culture. It changed after the Moors conquered Iberia.
Determining validity based on one’s inception point, quickly becomes an uncomfortable debate. Still, you have to wonder if there is something about this part of the world. The Neanderthals would probably have a thought on two on the subject.
Australia sees surge in mpox cases
Out of the lights, it seems that there are suddenly more mpox cases in Australia, but researchers found that in reality is difficult to differentiate mpox from chickenpox.
This project seems to go on, just when all the lights are on Middleast and Ukraine…
“So far this year, 737 cases have been recorded, with the vast majority of cases occurring in the last few months.”
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2024/09/27/australia-sees-surge-in-mpox-cases
“the main clinical diagnostic problem is the differentiation of human monkeypox from chickenpox.”
https://www.2ndsmartestguyintheworld.com/p/monkeypox-is-a-coverup-for-damage
The Intelligent Age: A time for cooperation
by: Klaus Schwab
Almost a decade ago, in 2016, I coined the term the Fourth Industrial Revolution. I could see a world where the fusion of our physical, digital and biological realities would transform industries and societies. This revolution, I knew, had the potential to fundamentally change all aspects of our lives.
But now, as we witness the exponential acceleration of technological change, it’s clear we are no longer just in the throes of an industrial shift. We are entering the Intelligent Age, an era far beyond technology alone. This is a societal revolution, one that has the power to elevate humanity — or indeed to fracture it.
The Intelligent Age — driven by rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing and blockchain — is transforming everything and changing it right now, in real time.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/09/the-intelligent-age-a-time-of-cooperation/?utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2836567_AgendaWeekly-27September2024&utm_term=&emailType=Agenda%20Weekly
woah. he has an e-bridge to sell.
Klaus may very well live in the “Intelligent Age”. Meanwhile, most of us struggle to heat our homes in the winter months.
“If you don’t become the ocean, you’ll be seasick every day.”
― Leonard Cohen
Perhaps you could put that slogan on a blanket and post it to me…
Those who’re struggling made a choice not to excel.
They made a choice not up upskill or invest in
new sources of growth.
I’m not sure if they do this out of a lack of self-esteem or disinformation from those who are anti-growth.
Maybe they’re just scaredy-cats.
Who knows….
There are not enough “spaces” for everyone to excel. Resources limits the amount of finished goods and services to be distributed. Young people born into a family that was financially struggling (or situation with only one parent) are particularly in a bad situation. Very few of them can excel. They may give up very quickly.
“Very few of them can excel”
But some do. It’s hard to sort out the nature vs environment but when kids from poor families do well, it is likely the random mix of genes they got gave them more drive and smarts than other kids in the same situation.
The other end is the kids of the wealthy who never amount to anything. One person I know with a famous name once said that his branch of the family was into fast women and slow horses. Again, random mix of genes.
When you’ve got it made, you don’t need every single family member working. As long as that the family fortune continues to grow, that’s all that counts. Most of us won’t get to a point we can support scores of people with out wealth and but we can get pretty close if we try.
As for the poor, most of them’re poor because of bad decisions and because they don’t want to apply themselves. Some of the hardest working people I know are the wealthy. When they work, they work hard. Multiple advanced degrees, long hours in demanding fields where they solve problems and make the world a better place, and they manage to find them for extracurricular activities ranging from sports to volunteering.
“support scores of people”
I know (second hand) about one of them who was supported. Character had a place place to live, expenses paid and a considerable allowance of “walking around money.” Was always bugging the trust lawyer that he needed more.
“As for the poor, most of them’re poor because of bad decisions and because they don’t want to apply themselves.’
Both of these, intelligence and working hard are largely (though not entirely) influenced by genes.
Good points you make re wealthy folks.
Good luck!
Sorry copy and paste…
https://www.ft.com/content/03ecd17c-ccd3-4ba7-9619-9fcd7f00332f
Energy-hungry tech groups express interest in US-led carbon credits scheme
Programme spearheaded by John Kerry among key themes at New York climate week
Tech groups including Meta and Netflix have joined the list of companies expressing interest in backing a carbon credits scheme spearheaded by former US climate envoy John Kerry, as they grapple with a surge in emissions from power-hungry data centres and artificial intelligence.
But Kerry warned, at the same time, that the businesses must cut their emissions directly, even as a growing number prepare to pour money into offsets.
“You just don’t have the free ability to go out and take all your emissions, and say, well, you know, we’re just going to pay for the offset,” said Kerry, who first launched the US state department’s carbon credits scheme, dubbed the Energy Transition Accelerator, in 2022.
Under the scheme, regional governments or state bodies will earn carbon credits by reducing their power sector’s emissions as fossil fuel infrastructure, such as coal-fired plants, is cut and renewable energy increases. The sale of the credits to polluting companies would help finance the shift to renewable energy.
The renewed push for a carbon credits market is among the key themes at New York climate week, in a series of discussions held at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly this week.
As governments everywhere find themselves under economic pressure and companies struggle to cut emissions, the subject has taken on increased momentum.
Amazon, Salesforce, PepsiCo and McDonald’s are among earlier supporters of the ETA, along with banks including Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered.
They are joined by about another 20 companies, including Nike, Santander, and REI, who are meeting in New York to discuss next steps for the ETA programme and their notional interest in supporting the scheme.
Yep, it is a scheme to continue BAU and continue to make money 🤑 without lifting a finger…
Kerry = Grifter
+1 . Agree . Kerry and Edwards asked for votes ” we have a better hairstyle ” . ROFL
I loved him in The Munsters.
Not Irish.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/kerry-and-the-non-existent-irish-connection-1.1150521
Candace Owens tracks down Harris’ grandmother. She is a white Irish woman from the Irish slave trading side of the family. From Candace’s podcast.
Candace says of the attack on Janet Jackson “you come for one of us you come for all of us”. I add my self as one of us.
Maybe there is hope for stopping US funding of gain of function research!
https://realclearwire.com/articles/2024/09/24/lawmakers_must_pass_risky_research_bill_to_prevent_next_pandemic_151666.html
Who should decide whether scientists are allowed to modify viruses to make them more infectious and deadly to humans? The surprising answer, until now, is that scientists and institutions like the National Institutes of Health, which have a vested interest in funding and conducting such “gain of function” research, have been the ones deciding whether to undertake such experiments. A bill called the Risky Research Review Act is currently under consideration in the U.S. Senate, which could finally require independent oversight in determining whether such risks are worth taking.
In 2014, the Obama administration froze federal funding for such research while studying how best to regulate it. In 2017, the Department of Health and Human Services implemented a toothless policy to fund research with oversight from a government body called the Potential Pandemic Pathogen Care and Oversight (P3CO) committee. Since then, the P3CO committee has reviewed only three research applications, and NIH funding for engineering more infectious and deadly viruses, including bat SARS coronaviruses, continued apace. . .
. . .there is reason for hope. The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee is on the verge of approving the Risky Research Review Act (with bipartisan support from Committee Chairman Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat, and Rand Paul, the ranking Republican on the committee). The bill would create an independent advisory panel, the Life Sciences Research Security Board, within the Executive Branch and be charged with reviewing all federally funded research with the potential to increase the transmissibility or virulence of any potential pandemic pathogen.
Unlike the proposed White House policy, the proposal explicitly lists potential pandemic pathogens covered by the bill. It eliminates the subjective discretion that previous policies provided to funding agency officials like Anthony Fauci.
The section I omitted talked about an earlier White House proposal that would have been a step backward. It didn’t pass.
I think the choices lawmakers will make will be ones that give them more power over citizens and help the pharmaceutical industry. Drugs are one of the few things that are developed on American soil. Commercials for legal drugs dominate tv commercial blocks. Drug companies seem to be making big profits but…
https://www.worldstopexports.com/drugs-medicine-exports-country/#google_vignette
“By far, the United States of America incurred the greatest deficit in the international trade of drugs and medicine. In turn, this massive negative cashflow highlights America’s strong competitive disadvantage for this specific product category but also signals opportunities for drugs and medicine-supplying countries that help satisfy the powerful consumer demand.”
In a free market system,, how can one country be a top producer by being so inefficient?
This will put a smile on Klummie….we are headed to his Happy place of the 1%,
Mom Says Daughter, an Ernst & Young Employee, Died as a Result of ‘Overwhelming Workload’ Ingrid Vasquez People magazine Wed, September 25, 2024 at 3:59 PM EDT
“The workload, new environment, and the long hours took a toll on her physically, emotionally, and mentally,” said Anita Augustine about her daughter
The 26-year-old’s mother alleged in her letter, sent via email to Ernst & Young India chairman Rajiv Memani, that her daughter “worked tirelessly at EY,” but “the workload, new environment, and the long hours took a toll on her physically, emotionally, and mentally
……..
PEOPLE reached out to Ernst & Young and Ernst & Young India but did not immediately hear back.
Seems we have a lack of communication..
Workers need to organize and fight back. Right Klum?
that will never happen because the elders have provided the perfect distraction information technology in the form of a mobile device namely the mobile phone as long as Society does not fall apart or collapse then these little perks can be provided to the working slaves of this Society.If on the other hand we enter the Seneca cliff then we shall see the ripping of faces and the taking out of who the majority consider to be the bad guys and the responsible party for the Seneca cliff.
Unions are evil and have to be destroyed.
assuming you are not joking
if it were not for the unions, you would still be working for £$1 a day
employers, by and large, are not magnanimous.
Henry Ford?
Dennis L.
By and large…too bad Henry didn’t have access to Mexico, shucks..
Ford has been exporting vehicles to Mexico and other countries, and has a number of plants in Mexico:
Exports
In 2023, Ford exported more than 260,000 American-assembled vehicles to other countries, more than any other automaker.
Yes, and high wags and higher consumption are bringing us to the Seneca cliff.
They realize and you should realize that low wages are good for the economy and for the Earth’s ecosystem.
The minimum wage laws and other bleeding-heart legislation can be circumvented with , unrestricted immigration. With more immigrants, declining cities like Springfield, Ohio, USA suddenly can expand employment in factories.
Master carpenters and master plumbers make high wages but only the rich can afford to pay their wages. Anyone who makes high wages in the U.S.A. has rich customers. There are only so many rich people and there is only so many services they can afford to consume, even with access to credit.
The rich are evil they must be hung on poles …
define rich
Everyone commenting here is rich.
Do you think you should be hung on a pole?
In India the paid for MSM is blaming the parents for not preparing their daughter for life . They say that she was aware what her job requirements were going to be and willingly signed on to it . They are calling her weak minded etc. SOB’s .
At least it seems the bosses there did not give her special privileges to play a princess in the office.
Yes. That is the silver lining in this story.
She was given the same workload and expectations as everyone else.
‘Lie flat’ and ‘let it rot’.
The question is why someone named Ingrid Vasquez has ended up in India, of all places.
India treats its workers like shit. It won’t treat a Hispanic , who looks like its people, any better.
” The question is why someone named Ingrid Vasquez has ended up in India, of all places. ”
In parts of India are what are called Anglo Indians — carry over progeny of the British and the Portuguese who colonized India . Christians by religion . The name suggests Portuguese forefathers .
“ended up in India,”
That is a good question.
The answer is already provided . Asleep at the wheel ??
Check the time stamps on the postings.
The $2.4 trillion Texas economy is the eighth-largest economy among the nations of the world, larger than Russia, Canada, Italy and more. The Texas economy has expanded faster than the nation seven quarters in a row. Texas is home to 52 Fortune 500 headquarters.
https://gov.texas.gov › top-texas-to…
Top Texas Touts: Economy – Greg Abbott
Lots of trouble brewing there too, folks…
Riding bulls instead of horses is no way for a Texan. Its show.
I am sure that the fact that the oil and gas industry has offered many jobs in Texas has helped the state. The spread-out nature of the state keeps land prices lower, so the cost of home ownership is lower. With these benefits, the government hasn’t needed to be as restrictive. This has made the state more business friendly.
EIA data indicates that Texas is a huge exporter of natural gas and oil. Natural gas tends to be cheaper near its source, also.
https://www.eia.gov/beta/states/states/tx/overview
This is a benefit as well.
Texas might be a good place to relocate seeing as it has so much natural resources still available.Where I’m living in Australia we are pretty self-sufficient in natural resources.
Adonis , ask Mr Shellman in the comments section .
https://www.oilystuff.com//forumstuff/forum-stuff/the-permian-s-watershed-moment?utm_campaign=cbd2f687-dda4-4a66-8012-859c08274e03&utm_source=so&utm_medium=mail&utm_content=59b5e743-c882-4a70-bd60-9151e76fd04e&configurationId=d1bb5b3a-0cae-4e51-8c4f-0f449a4bb929&actionId=4aa33078-4985-36e2-45a6-78290eb56e1f&cid=fa335351-37bb-44a6-9899-f8c34b4a0f81
I kinda like the aftertaste of fracked water, goes down smooth with a little kick at the end
I listened to quite a bit of this video. The problem with the rising water cut, and what to do with the produced contaminated brine water, is a huge one. The lady giving the lecture talks about the problem with an increasing number of ever-larger earthquakes, as the subsurface is injected with more water than it can handle. There is a possibility of somewhat cleaning up the brine, so it can be reinjected, but this only partly solves the problem.
Fixing up the water to the point where it is fit for agricultural use would be expensive. My guess is that we would need exports from China to do this, and because of this, would not be feasible. The price of oil will not possibly go up high enough.
he writes like a lost soul what will he tell me that i dont already know people give up easily but we have 4 factors that will continue survival of the human race ; AI man has had the opportunity to progress the stewardship of this planet it is time for Ai to have a go lets see where this takes us, interest rates will now begin a downward trajectory anyone ready for negative 10 %, Innovation , it gave us shale oil and kicked the can down the road ive heard whispers that shale is not finished could give us another 15 years and massive quantities of crude discovered in Antarctica approximately 500 billion are just waiting tobe developed. Natural or White Hydrogen is another clean fuel waiting in the wings that innovation will propel us into the ” Intelligent Age” and then Dennis’s ideas may be feasible in the future.The fourth factor are the”Elders” who are sure to throw in a few curve balls at the world that will keep the music playing.
Living in any place whose economy depends on declining resources is likely to be a huge problem. The video that Ravi Uppal put up mentions oil (and presumably gas) accounting for 35% of the Texas economy. The situation will be awful, without enough clean, fresh water.
Texas has wind and solar, with a lot of natural gas for balancing. But even this natural gas seems to be topping out in Texas, presumably because of water reinjection problems.
there isn’t any ”place” where the economy is not wholly dependent on resources.
if resources go into terminal decline, the economic system is finished.
petri dish or palace–the same rule applies.
I am afraid you are right.
I guess all of you doomers haven’t been keeping up with recent developments in free market economic theory.
The service economy has partially proved that an economy
can grow without consumption going up.
The success of the service economy has given economists
the confidence to say that a virtual economy will be possible.
A virtual economy is an economy where most of the consumption
is done on the web. They can’t say too much more than that it
it will be possible because too much is developing atm.
By the time they get around to developing a formal theory,
the dematerialization of the economy will probably be complete.
Just sit back an enjoy the ride.
lol investor
i’m glad you dont handle my investments
ive rarely read such a load of utter nonsense,—except maybe from the don.
money—in case you fail to understand it, is only a measure of energy exchange…….without energy support, money ceases to exist.
if you still want proof of it.
stop eating food,—-instead, pour boiling water on a mass of paper money—mash it into a porridge and live on it for a month.
and watch yourself starve to death.
or easier still, go online and try living on pictures of virtual food.
ive only replied to the nonsense-thread in case anyone else is foolish enough to believe it.
Texas’ high-tech sector is the reason for Texas’ success. It is one of the USA’s leaders in clean energy and AI. Its finance sector
its educational services sector could be developed some more, however.