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My view has long been that if the world economy does not have enough energy resources, it will have to contract. The situation is analogous to a baker without enough ingredients to bake the size of cake he wants to make, or a chemist not being able to set up a full-scale model of a reaction. Perhaps, if a plan is made to make a smaller, differently arranged economy, it could still work.
The types of energy with inadequate supplies are both oil (particularly diesel and jet fuel) and coal. Diesel and jet fuel are especially used in long-distance transportation and in food production. Coal is particularly used in industrial activities. Without enough of these fuels, the world economy is forced to make fewer goods and services, and to make them closer to the end user. Somehow the economy needs to change.
My analysis indicates that our expectation of what goes wrong with inadequate energy supplies is wrong. Strangely enough, it is the finances of governments that start to fail, early on. They add too much debt to support investments that do not pay back well. They add too many programs that they cannot be supported for the long term. They become more willing to quarrel with other countries. Of course, no one will tell us what is really happening, partly because politicians themselves don’t understand.
In this post, I will try to explain some of the changes taking place as the economy begins to reorganize and deal with this inadequate energy supply situation.
[1] One energy limit we are hitting is with respect to “middle distillates.” This is the fraction of the oil supply that provides diesel and jet fuel.
Each type of energy supply seems to be most suitable for particular uses. Middle distillates are the ones the economy uses for long distance transport of both humans and goods. Diesel is also heavily used in farming. If the world is short of middle distillates, we will have to figure out a way to make goods in a way that is closer to the end user. We may also need to use less modern farm equipment.
The top line on Figure 1 indicates that the world economy has gradually been learning how to use less total oil supply, relative to population. Before oil prices began to soar in 1973, oil with little refining was burned to produce electricity. This oil use could be eliminated by building nuclear power plants, or by building coal or natural gas electricity generation. Home heating was often accomplished by deliveries of diesel to individual households. Factories sometimes used diesel as fuel for processes done by machines. Many of these tasks could easily be transitioned to electricity.
After the spike in oil prices in oil prices in 1973, manufacturers started making cars smaller and more fuel efficient. In more recent years, young people have begun deferring buying an automobile because their cost is unaffordable. Another factor holding down oil usage is the trend toward working from home. Electric vehicles may also be having an impact.
On Figure 1, data for crude oil (second line) is available through October 2024. This data suggests that crude oil production has been encountering production problems recently. Note the oval labeled “Crude oil problem,” relating to recent production for this second line. The other two lines on Figure 1 are only through 2023.
The problem causing the cutback in oil production (relative to population) is the opposite of what most people have expected: Prices are not high enough for producers to ramp up production. OPEC, and its affiliates, have decided to hold production down because prices are not high enough. The underlying problem is that oil prices are disproportionately affected by what users can afford.
Food prices around the world are critically dependent upon oil prices. The vast majority of buyers of food, worldwide, are poor people. If budgets are stretched, poor people will tend to eat less meat. Producing meat is inefficient; it requires that animals eat a disproportionate number of calories, relative to the food energy they produce. This is especially the case for beef. A trend toward less meat eating, or even eating less beef, will tend to hold down the demand for oil.
Another approach to holding down food costs is to buy less imported food. If consumers choose to eat less high-priced imported food, this will tend to use less oil, especially diesel and jet fuel. Another thing customers can do to hold down food costs is to visit restaurants less. This also tends to reduce oil consumption.
On Figure 1, the third line is the one I am especially concerned about. This is the one that shows middle distillate (diesel and jet fuel) consumption. This is the one that was greatly squeezed down in 2020 by the restrictions related to Covid. Diesel is the fuel of heavy industry (construction and road building), as well as long distance transport and agriculture. Electricity is rarely a good substitute for diesel; it cannot give the bursts of power that diesel provides.
Close examination of the third line on Figure 1 shows that between about 1993 or 1994 and 2007, the consumption of middle distillates was rising relative to world population. This makes sense because international trade being ramped up, starting about this time. There was a dip in this line in 2009 because of the Great Recession, after which middle distillates per capita consumption noticeably leveled off. This flattening could be an early pointer to inadequacy in the middle distillate oil supply.
In 2019, middle distillate consumption per capita first started to stumble, falling 1.4% from its previous level. The restrictions in 2020 brought middle distillate consumption per capita down by 18% from the 2019 level. This was a far greater decrease than for total oil (top line on Figure 1) or crude oil (middle line). By 2023 (the latest point), per capita consumption had only partially recovered; the level was still below the low point in 2009 after the Great Recession.
Middle distillates can be found in almost any kind of oil, but the best supply is in very heavy oil. Examples of providers of such heavy oil are Russia (Urals), Canada (oil sands), and Venezuela (oil sands in Orinoco belt). The price for such heavy oil tends to lag behind the price for lighter crude oil because of the high cost of transporting and processing such oil.
Strangely enough, countries that are not getting enough funds for their exported fossil fuels tend to start wars. My analysis suggests that at the time World War I started, the UK was not getting a high enough price for the coal they were trying to extract. The coal was getting more expensive to extract because of depletion. Germany had a similar problem at the time World War II started. The financial stresses of exporters who feel they are getting an inadequate price for their exported fossil fuels seems to push them toward wars.
We can speculate that the financial pressures of low oil prices have been somewhat behind Russia’s decision to be at war with Ukraine. The recent problems of Venezuela and Canada may also be related to the low prices of the heavy oil they are trying to extract and export.
Extracting a greater quantity of heavy oil would likely require higher prices for food around the world because of the use of diesel in growing and transporting food. Publications showing oil reserves indicate that there is a huge amount of heavy oil in the ground around the world; the problem is that it is impossible to get the price up high enough to extract this oil.
The existence of these heavy oil “reserves” is one of the things that makes many modelers think that our biggest problem in the future might be climate change. The catch is that we need to get the oil out at a price that consumers of food and other goods can afford.
[2] Another energy limit we are hitting is coal.
Coal energy is the foundation of the world’s industry. It is especially used in producing steel and concrete. Coal started the world industrial revolution. The primary advantage it has historically had, is that it has been inexpensive to extract. It is also fairly easy to store and transport. Coal can be utilized without a huge amount of specialized or complex infrastructure.
China produces and consumes more than half of the world’s coal. In recent years, it has been far above other countries in industrialization.
World coal consumption per capita has been falling since about 2011. Arguably, world coal consumption was on a bumpy plateau until 2013, with world coal consumption per capita truly falling only during 2014 and thereafter.
This pattern of coal usage means that world industrialization has been constricted, especially since 2014. In fact, the restriction started as early as 2012. It became impossible for China to build as many new condominium apartment buildings as inexpensively as promised; this eventually led to defaults by builders. World steel output started to become restricted. The model of world economic growth, led by China and other emerging markets, began to disappear.
The problem coal seems to have is the same as the problem diesel has. There is a huge quantity of coal resources available, but the price never seems to rise high enough for long enough for producers to truly ramp up production, especially relative to the ever-growing world population. Coal is especially needed now, with intermittent wind and solar leaving large gaps in electricity generation that need to be filled by burning some fossil fuel. Coal is much easier to ship and store than natural gas. Oil is convenient for electricity balancing, but it tends to be high-priced.
[3] Political leaders created new narratives that hid the problems of inadequate middle-distillate and coal supplies.
The last thing we can expect a politician to tell his constituents is, “We have a shortage problem here. There are more resources available, but they are too expensive to extract and ship to provide affordable food, electricity, and housing.”
Instead, political leaders everywhere created new narratives and started to encourage investments following those new narratives. To encourage investment, they lowered interest rates (Figure 4), made debt very available, and offered subsidies. Governments even added to their own debt to support their would-be solutions to energy problems.
Political leaders developed very believable narratives. These narratives were similar to Aesop’s Fable’s “Sour Grapes” story, claiming that the grapes were really sour, so the wolf didn’t really want the grapes he initially sought.
The popular narrative has been, “We don’t really want coal or heavy types of oil anyhow. They are terribly polluting. Besides, burning fossil fuels will lead to climate change. There are new cleaner forms of energy. We can also stimulate the economy by adding more programs, including more subsidies to help poor people.”
This narrative was supported by politicians in most energy-deficient countries. The increase in debt following this narrative seemed to keep the world economy away from another major recession after 2008. People began to believe that it was debt-based programs, especially those enabled by more US government spending, that pulled the economy forward.
They did not understand adding debt adds more “demand” for goods and services in general, and the energy products needed to make them. However, it doesn’t achieve the desired result if inexpensively available energy resources are not available to meet this demand. Instead, the pull of this demand will partly lead to inflation. This is the issue the economy has been up against.
[4] What could possibly go wrong?
There are a lot of things that have started to go wrong.
(a) US governmental debt is skyrocketing to an unheard-of level. Relative to GDP, the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that US debt will soon be higher than it was at the time of World War II.
Notice that the latest surge in US government debt started in 2008, when the Federal Reserve decided to bail out the economy with ultra-low interest rates (Figure 4). A second surge took place in 2020, when the US government began more give-away programs to support the economy as Covid restrictions took place. The CBO forecasts that this surge in debt will continue in the future.
(b) Interest on US government debt has become a huge burden. We seem to need to increase government debt, simply to pay the ever-higher interest payments. This is part of what is driving the increased debt projected in the 2025 to 2035 period.
Figure 6 shows a breakdown of actual Fiscal Year 2024 US Federal Government spending by major categories.
Note that US government spending on interest payments ($881 billion) is now larger than defense payments ($855 billion). Part of the problem is that the ultra-low interest rates of the 2008 to 2022 period have turned out to be unsustainable. (See Figure 4.) As older debt at lower interest rates is gradually replaced by more recent debt at higher rates, it seems likely that these interest payments will continue to grow in the future.
(c) Continued deficit spending appears likely to be needed in the future.
The CBO estimates in Figure 5 seem likely to be optimistic. In January 2025, the CBO expected that inflation would immediately decrease to 2% and stay at that level. The CBO also expects the primary deficit to fall.
(d) The shortfall in tax dollars cannot easily be fixed.
Today, tax dollars mostly come from American taxpayers, either as income taxes or as payroll taxes.
A person can deduce that to stop adding to the deficit, additional taxes of at least 5% or 6% of GDP (which is equivalent to 12% to 14% of wages) would be needed. Doubling payroll taxes might provide enough, but that cannot happen.
Corporate income taxes collected in recent years have been very low. US companies are either not very profitable, or they are using international tax laws to provide low tax payments.
(e) The incredibly low interest rates have encouraged all kinds of investment in projects that may make people happy, but that do not actually result in more goods and services, or more taxable income.
Figure 8 shows that US corporate income taxes have been falling over time. The reason is not entirely clear, but it may be that companies set their sights lower when the return that is required to pay back debt with interest is low. All the subsidies for wind, solar, electric vehicles, and semiconductor chips have focused the interest of businesses on devices that may or may not be generating a huge amount of taxable income in the future.
I have written articles and given talks such as, Green Energy Must Generate Adequate Taxable Income to Be Sustainable. Green energy can look like it would work if a person uses a model with an interest rate near zero, and policies that give renewable electricity artificially high prices when it is available. The problem is that, one way or another, the system as a whole still needs to generate adequate taxable income to keep the government operating.
Of course, many of the investments with the additional debt have been in non-energy projects. There have been do-good projects around the world. Young people have been encouraged to go to college using debt repayable to the government. Government funding has supported healthcare and pensions for the elderly. But do these many programs truly lead to higher tax dollars to support the US government? If the economy truly were very rich (lots of inexpensive surplus energy), it could afford all these programs. Unfortunately, it is becoming clear that the US has more programs than it can afford.
(f) The ultra-low interest rates have encouraged asset price bubbles and wealth disparities.
With ultra-low interest rates and readily available debt, property prices tend to rise. Investors decide to buy homes and “flip” them. Or they buy them, and plan to rent them out, hopefully making money on price appreciation.
Stock market prices are also buoyed by the readily available debt and low interest rate. The US S&P 500 stock market has provided an annualized return of 10.7% per year since 2008, while International Markets (as measured by the MSCI EAFE index) have shown a 3.3% annual return for the same period, according to Morningstar. The huge increase in US government debt no doubt contributed to the favorable S&P 500 return during this period.
Wealth disparities tend to rise in an ultra-low interest period because the rich disproportionately tend to be asset owners. They are the ones who use “leverage” to get even more wealth from rising asset prices.
(g) Tensions have risen around the world, both between countries and among individual citizens.
The underlying problem is that the system as a whole is under great strain. Some parts of the system must get “shorted” if there is not enough coal and certain types of oil to go around. Politicians sense that China and the US cannot both succeed at industrialization. There is too little coal, for one thing. China is struggling; quite often it seems to be trying to try to “dump” goods on the world market using subsidized prices. This makes it even more difficult for the US to compete.
Individual US citizens are often unhappy. With the bubble in home prices and today’s interest rates, citizens who are not now homeowners feel like they are locked out of home ownership. Inflation in the cost of rent, automobiles, and insurance has become a huge problem. People who work at unskilled hourly jobs find that their standard of living is often not much (or any) higher than people who choose to live on government benefits rather than work. Fairly radical leaders are voted into power.
[5] The major underlying problem is that it really takes a growing supply of low-priced energy products to propel the economy forward.
When plenty of cheap-to-extract oil and coal are available, growing government debt can help to encourage their development by adding to “demand” and raising the prices consumers can afford to pay. High prices of oil and coal become less of a problem for consumers.
But when energy supply of the required types is constrained, the additional buying power made available by added debt tends to lead to inflation rather than more finished goods and services. This inflationary tendency is the problem the US has been contending with recently.
Strangely enough, I think that growing inexpensive coal supply supported the world economy, as oil prices rose to a peak in 2011. As China industrialized its economy using coal, its demand for oil rose higher. The higher world demand coming from this industrialization helped to raise oil prices. But as coal supply (relative to world population) began to fall, oil prices also began to fall. By 2014, the decline in industrial production caused by the lower coal supply (Figure 3) likely contributed to the fall in oil prices shown on Figure 9.
It is the fact that oil prices have not been able to rise higher and higher, even with added government debt, which is inhibiting oil production. World coal production is inhibited by a similar difficulty.
[6] The world economy seems to be headed for a major reorganization.
The world economy seems to be headed in the direction that many, many economies have encountered in the past: Collapse. Collapse seems to take place over a period of years. The existing economy is likely to lose complexity over time. For example, with inadequate middle distillates, long-distance shipping and travel will need to be scaled way back. Trading patterns will need to change.
Governments are among the most vulnerable parts of economies because they operate on available energy surpluses. The collapse of the Central Government of the Soviet Union took place in 1991, leaving in place more local governments. Something like this could happen again, elsewhere.
I expect that complex energy products will gradually fail. Gathering biomass to burn is, in some sense, the least complex form of supplemental energy. Oil and coal, at least historically, have not been too far behind, in terms of low complexity. Other forms of today’s human-produced energy supply, including electricity transmitted over transmission lines, are more complex. I would not be surprised if the more complex forms of energy start to fail, at least in some parts of the world, fairly soon.
Donald Trump and the Department of Government Efficiency seem to be part of the (unfortunately) necessary downshift in the size of the economy. As awful as may be, something of this sort seems to be necessary, if the US government (and governments elsewhere) have greatly overpromised on what goods and services they can provide in the future.
The self-organizing economy seems to make changes on its own based on resource availability and other factors. The situation is very similar to the evolution of plants and animals and the survival of the best adapted. I believe that there is a God behind whatever changes take place, but I know that many others will disagree with me. In any event, these changes cannot take place simply because of the ideas of a particular leader, or group of leaders. There is a physics problem underlying the changes we are experiencing.
There is a great deal more that can be written on this subject, but I will leave these thoughts for another post.
Hugh Mungus says:
March 7, 2025 at 7:41 am
We are going to have to disagree re the ‘wanna-be elites’ not having revolutionary potential. They are the class who seem to have the most frustrated expectations, having been bred and raised for ‘big things’ only to find that those things are just not going to happen. As for the monitoring, yes, that would make it difficult. And as the technology and techniques for control improve, perhaps eventually impossible. I am not sure the technology and control is that advanced yet as to be total, but if it is, then yes, there’s obviously no chance of revolution.
guest says: It already is impossible for the revolution you are thinking of to occur. Not only does tech make it harder but education the wanna-be elite
to not rebel.
In the worse case scenario, the wanna-be elite DO NOT want to get rid of social heirarchy they just want to be part of it and they know the only way
they can be part of it is some of the current elites are removed.
The current elite can be removed , according to those on the Left, with DEI hires.
The RIght are satisfied with removing DEI hires and hiring people based on merit because they think a majority of the elites are now DEI hires.
Power struggles in of themselves don’t necessarily mean a revolution.
“3. This plays into Jewish fable David and Goliath. . .”
Hugh Mungus says: Not really. You don’t need the majority of society to be revolutionaries for there to be a successful revolution.
guest says: A significant advantage is required. You have not provided a scenario where a bunch of wanna-be elites could
conduct a coup de etat. What weapons would they use?They don’t have a motivation
detroy the social heiarchy because they want to part of it. If they got rid of gentrification, they’d have to live in “dangerous” neighborhoods.
So, no, I don’t see any revolutionary potential that goes beyond cosplaying as revolutionaries.
Hugh Mungus says: It’s not just revolution, but also elite power struggle leading to blood-soaked chaos once you have too many elites for them all to get what they think they deserve etc.
Today, you have a large number of people who are simply priced out of the market for housing – they cannot compete
guest says: To participate in a power struggle one has to be able to compete on some measure …people who are priced out of the housing market or good jobs are NOT
I cannot stress this enough
NOT
wanna-be elites.
Hugh Mungus says: On the flipside, there are characters like Lenin, a cultured fellow
guest says: Lenin lived in a more primitive society, by contemporary 1st world standards, where some of the wanna-be elite (a much smaller group than what we have now )were potential revolutionaries because there were less barriers to them seizing the means of production. Governments in Lenin’s time did not have any major technological advantages over the general population, so numbers
meant a lot more than they do now….as long as someone had wealthy friends, which Lenin did, it was wealthy that had a grudge with the Tzarist Russia, a charismatic person could buy guns and gain influence. As technology advanced, the potential for revolutionary diminished.
All the tools law enforcement uses to catch criminalstate propaganda is also much more effective
and terrorists can be used to squash any real rebellion.
Technology aside, the main reason I believee the wanna-be elite are not a threat is because as many people have noted been conditioned not to rebel. Entertainment and education make people want to conform not to rebel.
Right now, we are seeing election vote some of those previously in power, out of power. This is part of the way change comes about.
there is no left and right if you think of that you are silly. at the highest levels cooperation is logical on some terms.
there is no revolution, people revoluting means nothing because they are fundamentally retarded. the majority of the population hates responsibilities. are humans going to raise an army, do scientific research and start a conquest by playing politics? no.
idk who wanna be elites are but the reality is ruling class will always control humans because humans themselves want to be controlled and told what to do and it makes it easier. if the elite could issue an edict saying % of pop go suicide, they would do it.
In fact, they recently did exactly that!
Yes, I agree that power struggles don’t necessarily require a revolution – I wrote that already.
The middle class is a precarious place to be, always struggling to climb that greasy pole and/or hang on so they don’t slide down into poverty. They don’t seem the kind of people who are likely to just bend over when their dreams get crushed by being unable to compete with big capital. They are driven, and they also have more to lose than the poor, who are already poor, and perhaps also less aspirational, so perhaps even less likely to revolt unless they are actually starving.
Uncontroversially, after WWII, to stave off the odds of a revolution after seeing what happened in Russia, an accord was reached which enabled the workers and the middle class to obtain greater levels of wealth than they had previously enjoyed. In other words, they were given a greater share of the spoils of the project of industrial technological civilization.
Over time, that accord has been eroded. To what extent that the erosion is due to resource depletion is not clear to me, but I am interested in it and do not deny that it could be/is a factor. For example, I understand that there was an oil shock in the 70s, this may have affected profitability, then in an effort to increase profitability decades of neoliberalism kicked off in the 80s, and went into full flight with the collapse of the Soviet Union and with it the main competing alternative model of distribution.
In any case, the distribution of wealth has changed in favour of the uber-rich and it is accelerating. Is this just a result of resources shortages, or is this also the result of the politics of distribution? Why not both?
Where we are now is that the truly wealthy top tier capitalist class are now wealthier than ever. Where I live in the west, the poor are priced out of housing. The middle class are sliding down into poverty as well and are increasingly unable to afford basics like housing unless they are already minted.
Going off history, and I have provided you with examples, this creates the kind of instability that can lead to great violence, however it is characterized.
Fast forward to today, and we have a situation where people cannot afford a home, while a billionaire owns vast tracts of real estate etc. This creates an affront to people’s sense of justice, this and the destruction of their aspirations creates motive, especially if they feel they have less to lose.
Can this all be fixed with democracy? I read the other day that in the USA, for example, that there are areas that want to secede and go their own way due to what they feel are irreconcilable differences. I would suggest that these differences are informed by perceived injustices over the distribution of wealth, so I would argue that distribution matters, which you seem to disagree with – we might have to just agree to disagree on that.
On the numbers required for a revolution, it is smaller than you might imagine. This article claims 3.5% for passive resistance to win out the day (not much advantage on display there – just the kind of self-harming stuff like gluing yourself to a lamppost or whatever) https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
This one says 25% is needed for change: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-25-revolution-how-big-does-a-minority-have-to-be-to-reshape-society/
I already gave you other examples of a situation wherein ‘aggrieved’ members of the middle-class (which I have disparagingly called ‘wannabe elites’ because they are aspirational and tend to share many values with the capitalist elites) have engaged in activities that have led to great bloodshed. This has happened despite them being educated, which you claim will stop revolutionaries. I don’t deny education plays a role in conditioning people, but I don’t know that it gives total control. And the world is a complicated place, with people getting their education from different sources. They have loyalties here and there, and to themselves etc.
Anyway, when I look at the world, with what is happening in Europe (which appears to be on at least some level a squabble over distribution of resources – i.e. who is going to get what share) and with ramping division and inequality everywhere, against a backdrop of resource depletion, I see building potential for a bloody massacres both within societies and between them.
You don’t think that’s possible, after taking a casual glance around, I would argue otherwise.
It does seem to me though that most people can be pushed really far, really surprisingly far, before they will ‘revolt’. It also seems to me that most people want to conform and go along to get along; however, it also seems to me that if the pressure builds enough it will find a release, maybe explosively, no matter how much it is repressed, maybe even because it is repressed.
an accord was reached which enabled the workers and the middle class to obtain greater levels of wealth than they had previously enjoyed.
A growing supply of affordable energy did that.
GUest2 -“A growing supply of affordable energy did that.”
Okay, so now we have a situation where the supply of affordable energy is depleting, so it follows that there’s less wealth to go around.
But is that all that’s going on with respect to increasing inequality? I’m curious to know if it isn’t.
One way to find out might be to tax the rich and lower taxes on the poor.
But look, if the inequality gets worse, and if nothing can be done about it by, say, increasing taxes on the super-rich while decreasing taxes on the poorer classes (or whatever other means you think will work), as it’s all due to affordable energy depleting (and the rest of the consequences of overshoot), and/or if nobody is prepared to fight for their own class interests and a different distribution of wealth, then I guess we can welcome in a new Dickensian era in the west until the whole thing eventually falls over.
So it goes.
Personally, I’d like to see the experiment run though to increase taxes on the rich while lowering them on the poor to see what happens. If it’s all doomed anyway, then who cares? And if the level of inequality doesn’t fall after fiddling with tax, then perhaps I’d have at least part of an answer as to the extent that current levels of inequality are driven by resource depletion as opposed to more ‘political’ factors.
If there isn’t any appetite for that, then we will most assuredly find out what happens with rising inequality.
In my view, that would seem to increase the odds of a bloody mess, and if one doesn’t happen, then life ends up looking awful anyway due to rising inequality irrespective of the availability of affordable energy, or not.
Why? Because money. Great big gobs of money that elites possess which have spooled up to insane levels and which give them an unfair competitive advantage in all fields of life.
So no matter what the situation is with energy, just considering the money that has spooled up to insane levels that’s held by the elites, we now have a situation wherein we’d end up with a mere handful of generations of relative wealth that have passed, but now it’s time for us all to go ‘back doon pit!’, back to slums, back to elites treating human life like it’s nothing because their vast amounts of money enable them to simply outbid/outcompete/overwhelm all other claims on goods, services, access to politicians, law, etc. – at least for as long as the system lasts.
But yes, before anyone jumps on me, yes, I do accept that barring a miracle we’re headed for collapse anyway due to overshoot, so this is basically all moot in the long run.
The maintenance of electrical power for the masses is what is keeping the system going. When (not if) the electrical grid fails, then we will see a “revolution”, but I don’t think it will be a revolution in the Marxist sense of the word.
The doctors under drugs
UNB doctor in Ružinov (city part of Bratislava, Slovakia) could not complete procedure. He is being investigated on suspicion of taking drugs
The police are investigating the case.
https://domov.sme.sk/c/23460142/lekar-unb-v-ruzinove-nevedel-dokoncit-zakrok-policia-vysetruje-ci-neuzil-drogu.html
Doctors have access to drugs. There have always been doctors who misused drugs.
Drug-testing has been something that non elite workers have been subjected to more than elite workers.
The elite are perceived as being trustworthy so they are tested less. The non-elite are perceived as being less trustworthy so they are tested more.
My own father was a general practice medical doctor. He tended to overuse medications. He would be up at night delivering babies, and then he would need to do surgeries the next morning. In the afternoons, he would see patients in the office. He would use “uppers” to be awake when he needed to be awake for a procedure, and he would take something sedating when he needed to sleep.
My parents would take vacations, to try to wean my dad off the drugs. I am sure other doctors with crazy hours and easy access to drugs would do the same thing.
My dad would tell me about other doctors, and the crazy things they would do.
I also worked in medical malpractice insurance. I saw a lot of strange things doctors would do.
+1
Also my impression is that doctors are quite fearful people.
(Maybe because they have seen so many things that can go wrong.)
Life is risky and ends with death.
Earlier BP was liquidating assets and now Shell . Chevron fired 20,000 last month . What is it they know and the world does not ?
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/petrochemical/567805/shell-reportedly-mulling-sale-of-chemical-assets-in-europe-and-us/
Shell is selling off its chemical plants and also green energy investment.
Chevron seems to be laying off 15% to 20% of its workforce of 40,000 by 2026. This would be 6,000 to 8,000 employee, not 20,000 (and “buying out” in the future, not exactly firing). I didn’t see a description of where these changes were expected. Venezuela?
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/12/business/chevron-global-layoffs/index.html
The Financial Post says
https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/bp-oil-elliott-pressure-cuts-buybacks
BP refocuses on oil amid pressure from activist investor, cuts buybacks
Not quite as dreadful for oil production as if all of the cuts were aimed at oil and gas. But things are not going well.
” I didn’t see a description of where these changes were expected. Venezuela?”
Trump, on Tuesday gave Chevron 30 days to halt all operations in Venezuela, so some possibilities there. Chevron are not happy as they have been expanding operations and seem to have been expecting a loosening of restrictions. China said thanks.
Though Trump is taking the Panama canal specifically to interdict China’s access to much of South America. I am rooting for the good guys but it is going to be tough.
I haven’t been following those events, but did notice a headline about BlackRock(my device capitalised that without prompt, just incase I had forgotten who’s the product) buying up all the ports in the area and so I have to agree that you are correct about it’s significance.
Venezuela(and Brazil) has quite the geographical issue and so some hard choices. If there’s any merit in the offer of an alternative way, Russia or China will have to step up to the plate. Wang Yi has been rather bullish about certain issues lately and I believe it’s foolish to ignore that man and his carefully chosen words.
It really doesnt matter, some countries will just have to wait longer for their Chinese goods. It’s not as though America can come up with container loads of affordable stuff to replace them.
Nothing America can do is going to do anything other than cause inconvenience and if they push it too far China will cut them off and they’ll collapse.
Kuwait Petroleum to boost oil production capacity by 33% by 2040
“Our upstream fields are becoming increasingly mature, and we see that the maturity stage of these fields requires more and more capital to invest not only to maintain production levels where they are, but also to grow to where we aspire the numbers to be,”
What are they trying to say ? Scratching my head .
https://jpt.spe.org/kuwait-petroleum-to-boost-oil-production-capacity-33-by-2040
As far as I can see, Kuwait’s oil production hit a maximum in 2016. It hasn’t fallen much since then; it has more been on a bumpy plateau.
It sounds like the new resource they have found is heavy on natural gas and perhaps natural gas liquids.
The article says,
So perhaps they are planning to make petrochemicals out of the non-associated gas, in the way Qatar does. This will be part of where their big investment goes to. But I am doubtful that the country’s actual oil production will be up much.
It remains to be seen whether there will be buyers for the expensive chemicals made with natural gas.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/blog250226i.png
EIA has posted a figure for world crude oil production for last November (81.921 mb/d) — while up from their figure for last September (80.655 mb/d), it is 1.3% below their current post-covid peak (83.016 mb/d, in December, 2023), & 3.2% below their current world peak oil figure (84.592 mb/d, in November, 2018).
This coincides with a price surge last October — but, with continuing flagging oil prices, might decline-from-depletion be permanent? ( https://oil-price.net/ , https://davecoop.net/seneca )
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1730419200000
David, this is all interesting but if you were to find diesel production data that would be so much more interesting. I know we have plenty of plastic and cigarette lighters.
Diesel is made in refineries, using the right kinds of oil. We don’t find these on EIA or IEA reports. It is only after the end of the year (May or June) that we get numbers from the Statistical Review.
US diesel production looks good, perhaps down slightly though around every February it looks like there might be a normal dip.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDIRPUS2&f=W
Good point. But production is way down from 2018. Relative to growing world population, US diesel production is way down.
last year US net exports of diesel were 1.5 mbpd, so I doubt that has changed much.
This is the chart the EIA has of “distillate” exports.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mdiexus2&f=a
It looks to me as if the peak was in exports of diesel was in 2017, at 1,381,000 barrels per day. The most recent three years of diesel exports are given as
2022 1,204,000 bpd
2023 1,116,000 bpd
2024 1,298,000 bpd
Where do you get your numbers from?
that’s about what I remember from EIA, “about” 1.5 mbpd diesel net exports.
that is quite excellent for the USA to produce about 5 mbpd and use about 3.5 mbpd internally and have over 1 mbpd excess to export.
that’s about what I remember from EIA, “about” 1.5 mbpd diesel net exports.
Because the US refines oil belonging to other countries on their behalf. The resulting oil products like diesel did not originate from US oil and don’t belong to the US but are nonetheless counted as exports. The figures are hopelessly confusing, perhaps intentionally.
Thanks for pointing this out. These figures come out at various times each month, it seems. I was expecting this report to be out about the first of the month.
DL Cooper:
“… might decline-from-depletion be permanent?”
it sure looks like it.
the world is entering inevitable degrowth, with lower gross FF production plus a declining % of surplus energy within the gross production, so double trouble.
55 years ago, the world average surplus energy within FF was about 98%, now it’s 90% or maybe 89%.
in a few more decades, IC will collapse due to insufficient surplus energy flowing through the system.
it’s nothing to worry about.
Some observations by George Kaplan, my go to guy on GOM matters.
Oil prices have dropped to a range where LTO producers may soon have to be making serious cuts to drilling and completion activity and OPEC will be considering further cuts rather than rescinding the existing ones (assuming they can – there is evidence that there isn’t as much real spare capacity as is assumed).
George Kaplan
George Kaplan on March 7, 2025 at 1:02 pm
I think a lot of US drill pipe comes from China with Mexico and Japan also big suppliers so presumably the cost of producing LTO is going up significantly. With the US dollar possibly starting to fall in value the producers will be getting hit at both ends as well – lower revenue and higher real costs. I’d imagine there may be some labor shortages coming along and the geology is getting more difficult – also increasing per barrel production costs. So some interesting and probably volatile times ahead.
George Kaplan
George Kaplan on March 7, 2025 at 2:27 pm
Another oil comment – Kazakhstan, part of OPEC+ recently “pledged cuts” to its production. This sounds voluntary but actually its reserves are well depleted and steeper production decline is to be expected. The two main projects are run by Chevron and ExxonMobil so there have to be audited accounts. For one of the projects the Chevron annual report shows reserve to production ratio is 8 years, and has been falling fast, which will translate to 10 to 15% decline rates, and there are almost no undeveloped reserves left.
Comments were posted on Harry Mcibbs blog
Interesting comments. I know that the US doesn’t make much drill pipe, so Kaplan in right about tariffs hitting the cost of drill pipes. And geology is getting more difficult both in the US and in Kazakhstan. Worrying that reserves are running low there.
Something lighter, moving to music is incredible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3YXJQMsrC4
Was very fortunate to have Ron as a coach in his last years, Donnie is the king, but Ron was very, very good.
We as humans do some wonderful things, some make absolutely no sense, but they feel good. Dancers seem to have longer lives than non dancers, or so that is the story told by dance teachers. The dance world is wonderful, great people, friendships which last through the years. I think often times we take ourselves too seriously.
Dennis L.
Dancers seem to be able to move their legs and arms better than the rest of us.
I’d like to wish a nice weekend to all of you.
The weather is nice, at least here, and I hope also for you.
I dedicate this song to all of you, but in particular to US readers of this blog, this song reminds me when I was young and I used to pass by Camp Darby base to go to the seaside (I lived in another city), I was totally ignorant of what was going on in the world, but I liked US music.
US soldiers playing baseball or American football seemed like aliens for us.
From what I’m seeing and hearing now in the news with these latest developments on the East European front, I still think that it is more dangerous to be partner with France, UK and Germany, than with US.
So, have a nice weekend US.
Have a nice weekend all of you.
I remember this one! The day the music died.
“ . . . he’s calling out Great Britain and in the process he’s calling out NATO he’s basically saying you are my enemy
8:17 you’re my stated enemy kir starmer you have went behind my back to have a
8:22 secret deal with Ukraine designed to trap me the president of the United States you can’t trap me I’ve trapped
8:28 you he’s turned the tables on them and so you know what is Europe to do he’s he shut down this um this military aid
8:36 until which time zalinsky signs the mineral agreement but zalinsky can’t sign the mineral agreement because of
8:42 the UK agreement which means that ultimately the UK is going to have to make null and void its agreement it’s a
8:49 big game being played here there’s only one player that is in a position to win that’s Donald Trump Europe NATO Ukraine
8:57 have decided to go to war against America literally a war that could take us down the path towards a nuclear conflict
9:03 Donald Trump’s in the business of making America great again that’s his stated policy um so what we’re seeing here
9:11 about starving out Ukrainian assets by shutting down military shipment it’s part of a bigger uh game being played
9:17 where we’re going to shut down England we’re going to shut down Europe we’re going to shut down NATO . . . “?
I have never heard of an earlier UK mineral agreement that needs to be made null and void.
We will have to see how this all works out. Ukraine may not have rare earths worth mining, but they likely have other minerals.
One might suppose that if my army is bigger than your army we could negotiate something.
Dennis L.
There was a deal btween UK and Ukraine,signed Jan. 16, that contained secret clauses.
Taco Bell near me has A.I. working the drive thru. It takes your order.
Soon AI will be teaching your children at home over the web with no need of schools or teachers/administration, security or school busing …just imagine the cost/energy savings! DOGE…it’s already being done at University level degrees …just need a valid reason …make the children safe and secure from bird flu and random shooting.
You ask, what to do with the abandoned schools? We have a need for housing of those disenfranchised without a place .
These are perfect place to bed them down and feed/clean them in a controlled environment. Just getting ready for the next permanent Great Depression
I was more in favor of mushroom farms, but yo have a point.
Mike,
I have been in calc classes with “kids”, sophomores, juniors in high school who were completing diff. eq, they were homeschooled. I can see Copilot would be an excellent tutor in these cases; it has limits.
These kids will enter engineering programs at a junior level in college while having skipped their high school senior year or more.
For those interested in genetics, the kid who was number one came in one day with an MIT hoodie, dad fixed cars. He was skipping his high school senior year, off to Boston.
Some kids are using secondary schools in interesting ways.
One can be doom, argue shooting, etc. college still seems safer than many/most of our large city neighborhoods. There is a small group of kids who are doing very, very well. I saw homeschooling work very, very well.
Dennis L.
It makes sense for university level degrees because the students are expected to show up already having learned what they need to know so it makes sense to replace a professor that doesn’t teach anything with ai. The students are paying for networking not to learn anything.
There have been articles about AI being used for children who need to see a school counselor.
Japan introduces 4-day workweek
https://fortune.com/article/tokyo-4-day-workweek-desperate-attempt-japan-shed-title-worlds-oldest-population/
According to the article:
It wasn’t clear to me whether total hours worked would fall with the new schedule. Commuting time would fall.
If total hours worked would fall, the government could add even more (mostly unneeded) jobs, to keep the unemployment rate low. Debt is used to fund a huge amount of Japanese jobs-making. This is part of the reason that Japan’s government debt level is so high.
There are costs to keeping a society together. Perhaps in America had we not exported all those “simple” jobs which allowed men to keep families together our society would be stronger at all levels. But, then the elites had a solution, “Let them learn to code.”
Dennis L.
You didn’t export the jobs. The jobs ceased to exist.
Peak Oil Chat: Jean Laherrere, Steve St. Angelo, Art Berman, Simon Michaux
What happened to Art Berman? He has completely changed his tune on peak oil. He talks about a glut of Diesel around the 18 min mark.
Its because he sees all these warnings coming of an oil glut (bigger than 2014) even. And he knows the peak oil critics will eat him alive (again) so he’s trying to get ahead of the curve to save face.
That was the worse peak oil podcast ever. I hate to break it to that hippie dude but small towns likely will be abandoned because the infrastructure won’t be able to be maintained. When the power goes out for weeks with no end in sight, people will move quickly to the cities.
They’ll go anywhere the lights and more importantly the screens are still on. We’re all addicted now.
I am not sure I have time to watch a 2 hour and 37 minute video. These folks have mostly told a wrong story because they don’t understand how the economy works.
It is possible that the world will look like it has a glut of diesel because so many parts of the economy are falling apart, but I wouldn’t count on it.
I have become disenchanted with Art Berman, to the point I think he is an asshole.
See his rebuttal to Steve St Angelo at 1:58:47, trying to deny that fracking water, with all the oil and fracking compounds added, is not waste water- because it was sourced as fresh water in situ and not imported?! Unbelievable! Steve St Angelo informed his subscribers that he had been blocked by Berman months ago. Steve calls BS when he sees it. For that reason, he is the only person on the internet or any printed media /newsletter for whom I pay a monthly susbsription ($10.)
Art Berman kind of pulled a Tulsi Gabbard in regard to peak oil.
Recently, I read an article that said that the wages in Slovakia are rising in all sectors. Except for one: the real estate. And the construction sector is also in decline.
However, I do not believe those statistics: the revenues of the state from the personal income tax have been declining for several years in a row. That means that this rise is fake. The people may be working less hours for higher hourly wages, too.
The profitability of the companies is in decline, too: the state can not collect the planned amounts of the companies tax.
So the current government adopted the tax from financial transactions for the companies and small businesses and also the tax licences which means that every company or certain small businesses have to pay certain amount depending on their revenue, although they suffer loss.
The state tries to cut its expenditures, too.
The food prices are terrible.
It is a pure cannibalism.
The people protest, but the government pretends that they do not understand where is the problem.
Fake the numbers, pretend and ignore – that is the current situation.
It sounds like the economy is not doing very well at all. No politician wants to admit that. They will “spin” the numbers, any way that they can.
Taxing money loosing businesses! That is bad. Thanks for the info.
Dead end, that is liquidating assets and when they are gone, it stops.
Had a patient, his father was a Chicago cop. His dad told him, “You can shot a man once, or you can bleed him for a long time.” Irish family.
Dennis L.
A new place to start digging:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/doge-hones-shady-climate-popup-ngo-shell-received-billions-biden
colin campell said ” The more the price of oil the less the government are incentive to produce and sell as they get enough money and save the current reserves
They caught it! Not sure about Starship, maybe a hiccup, they will fix it! It appears the empty booster weights >300 tons.
We will conquer the solar system with robots and we will get our cubic mile of Pt the same way as the creator. Find 5 cubic miles and blast away any rock, etc, lose 4 cubic miles and still have enough. Push the waste into Jupiter to be neat and respectful.
Looking at the universe, if nothing else it is very wasteful in all respects. I am starting to believe Preato is part of the universe. Man wants to be deterministic, even God is not that good; a bit of humility goes a long way.
Dennis L.
No, it is not a hiccup, but some inherent flaw which the designers refuse to see since changing that costs too much $$$.
Everything is part of the universe. However most of them are not in favor of what some people desire. They don’t give a crap about the wishful thinkings of some cornucopians.
Not sure about Starship, maybe a hiccup, they will fix it!
It blew up again. 8 flights and it hasn’t even made orbit. This garbage can is going nowhere.
It is going somewhere, in his imaginatiom
Like the dog Laika, a Moscow stray who was put into an aircraft and slowly cooked to death
Im children’s books she is alive domewhere in the space.
Excessive vibrations causes leaks, causes engine premature shutdown, causes ship to spin (i.e. lose of control), causes the self destruct package to explode the structure to allow for safe return to earth of small fragments.
It all sounds somewhat familiar doesn’t it, a bit like the 737max.
How many billions have been given to this con man, to literally blow on these less than impressive firework displays so far?
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/229329/VIDEO-SpaceX-rocket-explodes-raining-debris-from-sky
If Trump asked nicely, the Iranians could sell him rockets that actually worked, or the US could just go back to buying them from Russia. It would appear that no amount of failure is a deterrent, as long as you had made multiple visits to Lolita island.
Maybe he Would consult Nasa for help on how to launch rockets without fuel leaks if they hadn’t accidentally destroyed all their notes on building rockets that don’t leak Hydrogen and Oxygen. Not only would Musk benefit, but the Hydrogen economy could benefit also.
Musk does not use a hydrogen/oxygen fuel mixture.
The self destruct package has failed to function in fact on both of the last 2 launches.
What Elon needs is a ACME catalog so he can try new things.
The booster is most impressive. The ship has an issue with the engines failing up to two minutes before scheduled commanded shutdown. From flight seven they knew they had a vibration/noise issue in the area of ships engines. They made some up date but clearly not enough. Flight nine here we come.
80% of the propellant is working fine
20% of the propellant needs work
Like the last paragraph.
Dennis L.
dennis
i was wondering if there’s a correspondence course i can take, that would make me a genius too
Just follow Fast Eddie’s blog and you are well on you way, Norman…. Being a genius is lonely and he would welcome your company
he started commenting on my substack a while ago
his level of geniuosity was more than i could deal with.
I would have suggested Trump university, but that went out of business over a decade ago. How about
https://www.niche.com/colleges/elon-university/
Where for as little as $41,527 a year you can go on to great things, as their top 3 subjects attest. Public relations, finance and marketing are important to know if you are planning to sell pure unfiltered bs.
wonder if they would accept lumps of pt in payment
Careful Norman, Trump will be on the phone with a deal you can’t refuse.
Imagine how keen he’ll be, when you also point out that there’s coal under your back garden. Add a little lie about rare earth’s(why not, everyone else is).
This could be your invite into the world of the elders(alternatively just sign up with saga).
as long as i dont find a horses head in my bed—
School of Dentistry in the University of Minnesota, or whatever dental school he had attended.
well—it might be said that some of the discussion in that respect has certain similarities to pulling teeth
thats for sure
Sorry, that part of our being does not change, choose your parents wisely.
I have a deep belief man is meant to be here, that life is not deterministic but the odds are such that by discarding the losers the 20% winners more than make up for the inconveniences.
Norm, what is there to lose by making positive bets and discarding the losers? In the end we cease to play although that too may be wrong.
Dennis L.
Any casino has uts house edge, called entropy
Better not to plat sometimes
It is not just US government debt that is a problem. It is debt of other governments around the world as well.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/futures-plunge-german-bond-rout-goes-global
Futures Plunge As German Bond Rout Goes Global
I have a hard time seeing how lower interest rates will help. Investors seem to be demanding higher interest rates.
The G7 central banks are all trapped.
When all you have is a hammer…
Add more debt at a lower interest rate. Surely that will make the economy go!
If no one is willing to lend to indebted governments at lower interest rates, the indebted governments are in a bind. Using coercion might become attractive to the ones that are armed…to get access resources. Getting access to stuff is what the borrowing allows.
One could argue that the large debt growth was the outgrowth of colonialism and that many of these countries have no choice but to lend or be attacked but that’s a story for another day. The difference is back then the accounting was such that the colonialist countries ran a trad surplus even though they probably imported more stuff than they exported.
Hmm, someone is reading my comments on this site.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/private-spacecraft-disappears-300-000-km-away-from-earth-engineers-baffled-by-sudden-loss/ar-AA1AnUK5?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=aea68ef96fbc4ec3bdccf699a1a17d05&ei=12
They obviously know the value of a cubic mile of Pt.
India is getting ready for the H economy with expectation of the cubic mile being a gift from the heavens – please forgive, sometimes can’t resist.
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/first-hydrogen-trucks-hit-the-road-in-india-as-part-of-government-backed-trial/2-1-1788396
Like the flowers, seems such a natural touch for such a brute of a machine.
Dennis L.
We will have to see how these hydrogen-powered heavy trucks really work. Of course, another issue is whether the idea can be scaled up.
Lots of complexity involved. Makes the whole system hard to maintain.
If they burn H, it is not that much of a challenge. I am not an engineer, but it would seem the pollution issues would be much easier. Farm equipment with modern engines does not have the hour life of older equipment and it is a mess to maintain. After nitrogen oxides, H would seem to be pollution free. JBL is demonstrating what are essentially diesel engines burning H.
IF really cheap Pt is available, it scales trivially and it solves the intermittency issue. As for delivery of H, deliver H as electricity to sites and manufacture H locally. As long as it works, it would be a blast(A Hindenburg moment). In reality, one does not need to “truck” H, one can deliver it over power lines.
Someone put a satellite out there to search/mine the asteroids. That is current technology and engineering, SpaceX makes it economical we hope. Blast off later today.
Let’s get those satellites out there, there is a cubic mile of Pt somewhere close; think the nearest galaxy as distant, solar system seems smallish.
Dennis L.
>IF really cheap Pt is available,
It isn’t.
If we already have the tech, I will bite, but we don’t have anything.
Non sarcastic comment:
Is it complex? Making H from water is very simple, we did it in high school chemistry lab. Engines burn CH4 all the time, H is a gas without the C; Methane engines are very reliable, they can be found in wastewater treatment plants.
Transporting H can be done over the wire, much simpler than moving diesel.
Politically, it is clean energy, made from solar there is no heat gain to spaceship earth, sunshine in a different form.
Need to follow the song, “Good Vibrations” get rid of the bad vibrations in Starship and go find our cubic mile of Pt.
Dennis L.
No it is just a design flaw
And the Hydrogen truck in , out of all places, India is simply a media stunt. It will break down within a couple of months.
Long trends, short trends:
Today
“In the wild if a mother rabbit has ten baby rabbits how many will live long enough to reproduce?”
“In the wild, the survival rate of baby rabbits (kits) varies greatly due to factors like predators, food availability, and environmental conditions. On average, rabbit survival rates in the wild can be quite low—it’s estimated that only around 15–25% of newborn rabbits live long enough to reach reproductive age.” Copilot
Looks like Pareto to me. In a long trend is the universe, what is the distribution of planets like earth? Probably need to count totals over billions of years.
Our resources relative to a human lifespan are a long term trend, short term is more like finding food for the day at hand.
We humans have developed a wonderful compassion for each other. As our resources compress from long term to shorter terms, one might expect the survival rate of human groups to revert to Pareto.
Conclusion: The forward period during which this contraction in resources occurs may see humans approximating Pareto. Or, it is going to be bumpy.
Dennis L.
And some species, if food source is scarce, will refrain in breeding or having multiple litters
Yes, if food is scarce, coyotes are likely to reduce their breeding activity, meaning they will either have smaller litters or may not breed at all, as their bodies will naturally prioritize survival over reproduction when resources are limited; this is a key mechanism in population regulation for wildlife species like coyotes.
Key points about coyote breeding and food availability:
Food impacts litter size:
When food is plentiful, female coyotes can produce larger litters due to better nutrition.
Physiological response:
If food is scarce, a female coyote may experience hormonal changes that result in fewer eggs being released or even the reabsorption of developing fetuses.
Survival of pups:
Even if a female coyote does breed during a food shortage, the survival rate of her pups is likely to be lower due to limited food available for nursing.
Imagine that…AI to the rescue..
When the cost of child care for one child is equal to a woman’s after-tax wage, women will have very few children. Maybe the family can get along financially (on a net basis) with one child, for a few years, but having two or three or more children becomes impossible.
If the mother doesn’t need to work outside the home, the likelihood of multiple children increases.
No sarcasm, Amish family life seems to work well. Disclaimer, I saw it a bit from the inside, patients; it isn’t perfect but it works.
We are biology, we are 80/20 and my guess is the more challenging our environment the more traditional values will surface because they have withstood the test of time.
See through dresses at the Oscars are so yesterday.
Dennis L.
You praise their inbred genes.
They will not produce your starships.
The Amish population is growing 3-4% a year. White population has been about .6%/year and perhaps now even lower. If it is below replacement, no matter how intelligent it does not have a future.
Autism seems to be 1/3000 compared to broader population of 1/150 per copilot. Trump claimed 1/36 on TV, has to be right, right?
I never saw an autistic Amish child when I had them as patients, perhaps they weren’t brought in.
I suspect given a simple math test, they would score higher than the general population.
Where did I ever praise their inbred genes?
The universe seems to be pretty hard on things which do not work, go down a genetic blind alley and it says, “Next.” They are growing, something is working.
Dennis L.
Their pop mihht griw but they are all reproducing with their genetic siblings
No geniuses. Plenty of grnrtoc disasters.
No starship.
“so yesterday” I agree the tide is turning but the war will still belong.
Happily the woke mind virus does not exist in China.
80/20
More on biology. I look for what works, try never to argue a point.
If a woman has only one child, who will take care of her and perhaps her husband in the later years? As we get older due to biology we have less to offer, hint, we get tired and need naps; try and get a job with that one. Parents pay it forward, they collect as they age, rinse and repeat.
Will “immigrants” want to care for someone else’s children? I suppose robotics, but this is not going over well in Japan, maybe a more touchy feely robot?
The Amish are an example of what works and at a much lower level of society than commonly observed. What is see are neat homes, neat fields, Sunday off, gathering at homes, sometimes kids playing outside as a group. That is a long way up from our cities where the music in the air is often as not a siren.
Leaving school at 14, they can do basic math, probably without a calculator, paper and pencil, how quaint.
Things are going to change, Starship is scheduled to launch to day at 5:30 PM. If that Indian truck is going to work out, we need that cubic mile of Pt. Pd might work in a pinch.
Dennis L.
Were the grandparents to share a home with the parents of their grandchildren, would that change things? As I have mentioned, my grandmother shared our home, it was not always easy, but it worked. Mom did not work, she volunteered, dad was a cop, honest, not the greatest income.
Amish seem somewhat similar.
Dennis L.
The R vs K strategy. Rabbits (R strategy) breed like crazy, perform minimal parental duties, and overcome large losses to predation. The strategy works, as for herbivores grazers, food is usually more plentiful.
In contrast, in wolf packs (The K strategy) the alpha male determines who can mate, and the pack survives through attentive parenting, and populatioin control, especially during times of scarcity. More time and resources are spent in caring for the young.
The mouse utopia experiments show that reproduction requires some selective/restrictive pressures otherwise the whole system goes off the rails.
Sub Saharan blacks follow the R strategy, whereas Neanderthals especially were more in the K camp.
But unlimited government handouts to blacks in the US, removes the selection pressures and we get a variation of the mouse utopia with the BLM and Antifa riots, fathers abandonment of children, women with children from multiple fathers, and even in the whites now, bizzare behviors manifested as wokeism. Hideous tattoos, obesity, purple hair etc.
Last paragraph is spot on.
There is no such thing as unlimited handouts and no such things as no selective pressures. People who adapted to Africa’s subsaharan climates do not have access to unlimited handouts they are just living a in environment that is different than the ones they evolved in. Behaviors that were beneficial to survival in those areas are dysfunctional in cooler climates.
There is the selective pressure of in-fighting which interestingly weeds out the traits that would allow them to compete with non-sub-Saharan humans in cooler climates. There is sexual selective pressure of women which does not select for the mythical k-strategy following alpha male. The truth is only a brutal tyrant could make other black men adopt a k strategy. It’s completely alien to black people.
A couple hundred years of co-habitation with whites did not make black people start to behave like whites and it never will. This is all moot because the blog has made the point that civilization is unsustainable so the future is more likely a future where humans who don’t even know how to make or use metal tools will inherit what is left.
No.
Governments use handouts as a standing army and a method to redirect ire.
Education makes women want better mates and delays their marriage rates. By making the families dysfunctional, this means there are larger portions of single mothers. Single mothers have lower fecundity rate and are bad mates for males. Abortions are promoted in poor/black areas. So you are wrong. Obesity, hideous tattoos, promoting fatness are Malthusian eugenics. Get your facts right.
They alter the mating behavior/population differentials in choosing mates.
“Education makes women want better mates”
That is great example of selective pressure that you said was absent in United States.
“Abortions are promoted in poor/black areas.”
Another form of selective pressure and it’s not even new. In non-industrial societies weak children are neglected or outright killed.
“They alter the mating behavior/population differentials in” Just because you don’t like what is being selected for; nature not behaving the way you would like; your genes are not being selected for does it mean it’s not happening.
As long as 20% of what ever gross number is, the idea is consistent.
Dennis L.
I won’t be investing on something which eorks only 20% of all time
At 11:59 PM Europe is finally realizing what it could have done if it were allowed to unite.
No Longer Great Britain is responsible for 99% of Europe’s troubles for all these centuries, and it now trying to lead Europe is simply laughable as the one of the two countries who made a nonEuropean as the Head of the State (the other one is Ireland, who had made an Indian homosexual as its prime minister before).
The no longer Great Britain messed up every attempt to unite Europe, as late as 2016. Europe is now full of woke pushovers, no longer salvageable.
Perhaps no one at White Hall thought it was wrong to ask help from North America and Australasia because they spoke English. They did not read Gibbon’s book; later Rome was full of Latin-speaking peoples who were very happy to wreck havoc in there.
Except for some people in US eastern seaboard, who have gradually become irrelevant, most people residing in North America were savages or those who ultimately proved to be incompatible for the European tradition, which is now shoing in full bloom.
And USA has made sure Europe would never rise again by implanting its base(which means the lowest of the low, not basic, for those who don’t get the terminology) culture to there for 80 years.
Whatever Europe is doing now is simply going to end as farce and Europe will perish, and the no longer Great Britain will beg help to the English-Speaking-but-no-longer-part-of-Western-Civilization peoples.
The long term future belongs to civilizations from warm areas. The medium term belongs to those who still have oil left. There is nothing Chucky could have done to avoid that. So why quibble about this little pieces of theater?
I am afraid you are right. Having easily accessible coal will help, too, in the near term.
His history is more interesting.
Can you imagine kulm teaching at college? Riot cops on alert.
If Chucky had run Europe would still have the manpower , or at least the talents, to compete with the zombies in North America and Oceania, and also would have maintained the colonies to this day since USA would be in no position to balk about the holdings of European powers.
USA messed up the regimes in Persia and Saudi Arabia, and Persia got uppity in 1979. Saudi Arabia behaved until 2022 or so when it began to get uppity. One reason Trump was brought back in was because MBS would listen to Trump to some degree.
None of these would have occurred if the Entente basically sold the kitchen sink to USA to save their faces.
It was a big screwup the barbarians in United States. Already, in 1920s, Tom Buchanan in the Great Gatsby quoted from a now politically incorrect book called the Passing of the Great Race by a Madison Grant, read among in the highest echelons of society although not by the general public.
The Eastern Establishment, the last barrier between the zombies of United States and Civilization, became largely irrelevant as their replacements dried out, and the Bushes were the last relevant relics of their power. After George W. Bush, it was deluge.
I see you don’t accept the law of entropy. there was another Chuck right behind your Chuck, waiting to spring in action. Your Chuck was merely the first of many Chucks. I admit it is possible that he could have postoponed the demise of western civilization by a week or two.
That is not the way it worked as I see it, perhaps I am wrong and if so would accept other viewpoints.
Basically, the north colonized the south. Africa was always very wealthy in stuff, what was often sold first were the people.
In the time of Christ, the Romans did a number on Israel; nailed their king to a cross to make a point.
The Vikings were farmers, sort of. Not sure when they raided, but seems they kind of were fond of English women. I suppose that made the row worth the effort. Biology, it is always biology.
Dennis L.
Not a king. A bastard son of a lowly Roman footsoldier
Perhaps you mean little Indian?
Good news: “Shale oil and shale gas resources are globally abundant”
~10 years of global supply (345 billion barrels) of shale oil, globally. Top 5: Russia, US, China, Argentina, Libya.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=11611
But oil and gas from shale won’t save us. The oil is too light. It doesn’t have much diesel in it.
the future is shale plus bitumen. Making it all work is tricky. US shale is declining of course, and both shale and bitumen are difficult to transport.
We seem to have been making it work.
This shows a link to US imports of Canadian oil.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIMUSCA1&f=M
Yes, and the largest amount of shale is in Russia. The largest amount of bitumen in Russia and Kazakhstan.
MACRON going to war (let’s hope, alone)
Macron is not only offering ‘nuclear protection’ to Europe, he is also offering Ukraine French military intelligence to replace US one, which is going out.
This man is desperately trying to solve his serious political problems by creating crises.
We all remember when, right after the Oct. 7 attack, he launched the idea of a coalition against Isis – Al Qaeda, which had nothing to do with Hamas….(on the contrary Isis – Al Qaeda blocked Iranian support inside Syria, which was aimed to help Hamas and Hezbollah against Israel. So Isis – Al Qaeda was actually an enemy of Hamas..).
He is a desperate and really dangerous man.
A man who mystifies reality.
(Now) https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2025/03/06/france-offering-intelligence-to-ukraine-amid-washington-suspension
(In 2023) https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20231024-macron-calls-for-anti-is-group-international-coalition-to-fight-hamas
Evidently the financial situation of England is very deteriorated. and he is a rothschild man.
I’m a bit puzzled by the interpretation of the coal graph. My understanding is that alternatives are cheaper and so in the US and many other countries, instead of building new coal plants they are gradually retiring existing coal plants as they age out. That combined with not running coal plants much of the time because the marginal costs are much higher than solar/wind. Because of the lower demand for coal we are consuming less of it. Isn’t that a very different situation than a supply side shock where coal becomes increasingly expensive to mine? It seems like this is largely a demand shock. Coal hasn’t become that much more expensive, it’s just that alternatives have become much cheaper.
Electricity from wind and solar only substitutes for natural gas or for coal. The value of these fuels, as they go into the electricity generation process, is quite low. Say 2 cents per kWh. But modelers have come up with fancy ways to make intermittent electricity look like it is more valuable. They treat it as if it is dispatch-able electricity, available whenever it is needed, which is worth a lot more.
Wind and solar electricity are often available far from where the usable electricity is needed. This leads to the need for long distance transmission. This long distance transmission is only intermittently used, making it an expensive added cost.
Wind and solar are given “priority” on the grid, in a way that crowd out other transmission. The wind and solar get the highest price wholesale available at that time. The others get very low prices, or negative prices. This tends to drive other producers out of business.
The comparisons we see are on the assumption that wind and solar could provide a complete system by themselves, with this cost structure. But they can’t, because they need a lot of backup generation, generally from coal or natural gas. These plants have to operate fewer hours, and ramp up and down frequently. They need to have adequate staff, in spite of their crazy schedules. Nuclear especially gets driven out of business–even though it is low carbon, and already built.
The situation is absurd. Wind and solar drive out other generation, the way they are priced, but they cannot operate on their own. The cost comparisons you see are wrong. Batteries can do a little bit to help the situation, but they cannot help with weeks’ and months’ long outages. They don’t store solar energy from summer to winter, when it is needed.
Coal is what powers heavy industries like steel. Consuming less coal means deindustrialising because all other industries depend on the products of heavy industry. Deindustrialising means you are economically and militarily hopelessly weak compared to countries that are still industrialised.
What I find is that many STEM firms with headquarters in NATO countries are promoting this myth that industrialization is possible without fossil fuels.
No engineer or science fiction author has ever explained how metal could be made in outer space.
The Wikipedia entry on this topic is a joke.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_manufacturing
Are they really counting on artificial intelligence
https://www.goingconcern.com/when-ai-stands-for-actually-indians/
to figure all this out under the belief we just aren’t “smart” enough to figure it out?
glad someone else is asking the question about how major industry can be functional ”off earth”
I continue to be perplexed by how 99% of the people have to see everything that happens in the world in a moral or perhaps historical light. Truth be told, the elites spend enormous amounts of resources to keep people in this state of mind. We then see millions of people, secure in the knowledge that Putin intends to conquer the whole of Europe, without a need to provide a reason to do so. It just descends directly from Putin’s evilness. Is there any hope for these people? the same brain mechanisms will lead them to also get vaxxed with experimental mRNA concoctions. I mean is evolution going to be particularly brutal to these people in the course of the next couple of decades? wiping them out precisely because they are unable to see beyond their indoctrination?
“[P]erhaps 6 out of 7 of us will have to die.”
As Lenin said, the two important questions are “Who?” and “Whom?” Exactly at this point the discussion at this excellent site veers off into inanity.
Perhaps an extra layer of abstraction is called for. Let us ask “Is anyone now asking himself “who?” and “whom?”, and if so, do his answers rise to the level of a plan?”
The globalist project is not without enemies and may even have a specific and planning enemy.
This is the new religion.
Whatever the favored political party says is right. The Federal Reserve will save us. Money is a store of value (for how long?) Governments will save us.
Live by the narrative, die by the narrative.
It seems to me that many people let herd mentality or social cues override their own capacity for reason, that is, they do a very good job of internalizing social cues and media cues. Reading these cues and deference to authority, whether subliminally or consciously, has probably been very important for individual survival, historically.
Secondly, and while I haven’t read anything to this effect, I wonder whether herd instinct and being led easily lends itself towards tribalism, which is in turn important for self-preservation. So stupidity would then actually has some value, because it prevents individualism and promotes unified action. In past eras where technology didn’t change much, survival was more about simple actions like clubbing the other tribe, so intelligence and logic had less utility.
200 years of Enlightenment, totally wasted? and these opportunities do not return… the fate of humanity is truly cruel. I am two generations removed from sharecropping, past or future…
1/8 of my people have been here in the Hudson Valley for 4000 years.The fishing will be good again.
Make America Great Again.
buffalo hunting on the plains
fishing on the rivers and 10,000 miles of coast
the three sisters corn, beans, squash
beavers/deer/coyotes/feral-dogs for food and fur
The people who have the most children are the most tribal and superstitious. The people who think everything they experience will be looked back upon as a major historical event are the majority. Deal with it.
“It seems to me that many people let herd mentality or social cues override their own capacity for reason, that is, they do a very good job of internalizing social cues and media cues.”
Most people who aren’t introverted or autistic learned it is better to “go with the flow” than face social ostracization or bullying. Even when they start a rebellion they do so with the blessing of a group.
I see Putin defending his country the west gave him no choice. They are war weary with less young men to fight. I don’t think he wants to pick another fight.
I completely agree.
There must have been an involution of the human development.
I think that ancient Romans or Greeks would have never fight another kingdom with which they were exchanging goods against resources, for the simple reason that this kingdom was invading a little Country that was menacing that kingdom.
On the contrary, I think that ancient Romans or Greeks would have helped that kingdom to destroy the little country, located in the region between, to avoid that the flow of goods and resources were blocked by that ambitious little Country.
But I can tell you that, actually, in Italy there is a sort of overlapping with people in favour of ‘three mRNA doses – plus Green Pass’ package, and the one belligerents against Russia.
It must be a sort of development of the ‘sheep mind’.
I think they need to see empty supermarkets or supermarkets with prices too high, to have their normal mind back.
Italy has nothing to do with the Romans, who went to die in , ironically, Carthage (now Tunisia).
Lombardians ruled northern Italy and whoever was living in northern Italy moved to the south.
No, they went to Mars.
Kulm, I don’t want to be disrepectful, if you talk of some Roman élite who escaped from the Country when Longobards arrived, it could be, but they went to the south of Italy, in Tunisia maybe just 100/200 people.
The popolation remained here and actually we had many other ‘barbaric’ invasions, not only Longobards (Goti, Visigoti, Unni, Normans etc.), but unfortunately they were all conquered and phagocytized by the Roman culture (and also by Magna Grecia culture too. Which was present in the south Italy. Calabria, Sicily, Puglia) and additionally also conquered and phagocytized by Christianism.
And I say: unfortunately.
No one survived…
The ones who brought some different background and they weakly perpetrated through the centuries in the hidden texture of our culture, were Eturians, Celts and Veneti and some slices of Arab culture in the south during middle age, but it happened later and hit mainly Sicily.
The great part of our culture (laws, the way how institutions are organized, habits of the people and so on) all come unfortunately by Romans and also in part by Bizantines (see our bureaucracy), which was the decadence of Romans.
I don’t know which sources you read, but they are unfortunately not good.
Italy has drowned in the bucket of the Romans and it has also drowned in our own middle age culture.
How many famous Roman families, or at least claiming descent from them, are around in Italy now?
Something like that happened in China during the first half of 1st millennium. Nomadic tribes invaded China, and not having better alternatives on their own, they adopted Chinese names and Chinese cultures and simply outbred the local Chinese and claimed they were the real Chinese.
I wonder whether this theory comes from the Piedmontese propaganda after 1870 to try to unite all of the Italian peninsula, despite of the fact that even now northern and southern Italys are separate countries for all practical purposes, by claiming everyone is Romans, despite of the fact that the Savoys themselves originated from Saxony and lived in what is now France for a long time and certainly had nothing to do with the Roman Empire whatsoever.
“(b) Interest on US government debt has become a huge burden. We seem to need to increase government debt, simply to pay the ever-higher interest payments. This is part of what is driving the increased debt projected in the 2025 to 2035 period.”
A “box canyon”?
It is easy to get into, and looks impossible to get out of. Hyperinflation anyone? Or deflation?
Are you baiting Dennis?
Dennis loves to ask that question, meanwhile:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
I’m looking for deflation in asset prices. This will cause a problem for banks, insurance companies and pension plans. All of these organizations cannot be bailed out.
Maybe breakup of countries into smaller units comes along pretty quickly, and with it the loss of the most of the financial support we are used to. We could end up with a new currency for every state, for example.
I am betting deflation.
There seem to be two inflations, material and monetary. We are in a mostly monetary inflation, watch DC, there is less money for the feds, housing prices are going down. Paper backing those homes is going down and there are diminishing numbers of people willing to purchase more paper to finance stuff.
Without surplus energy, real value of “stuff” tends to decline until it is a cost. In large cities it becomes trash, junk strewn among decaying housing. Become a landlord, who does one call to enforce rent collection? Ghostbuster?
Much of my country, US, will experience that, stuff will simply be walked away from, it will deflate along with the paper under it. E.g. pickups, they have doubled in say the last ten years. When the “owner” walks away, they are a joyride for someone and then “junk.” That is deflation of monetary paper as well as deflation of “stuff.”
It will be bumpy and not at the same time in all sectors. Trick is to be in the right sector.
Dennis L.
RUSSIA is a danger for EUROPE
…Macron declares to its nation that Russia has become a danger for Europe
and also that nobody can be sure now that Russia will not stop invading also other Countries after what happened in Ukraine…
Europe is finding its reason to exist by creating the bogeyman of Russia
and Macron is desperately holding on to this in order not to be thrown out of the window by the French and the Europeans, who are completely tired of him.
News from 100% Italian mainstream media, La7:
https://tg.la7.it/esteri/macron-nazione-russia-minaccia-francia-europa-05-03-2025-233210
And Europe realized that too late, at least United Kingdom and France.
Russia should have been broken up beyond recovery, Finland reclaiming Karelia and Viipuri, Poland reclaiming all of Byelorussia (no one used the term Belarus before 1991), etc. It should have been dismembered, never to return again.
As if Poland needed the partisan activity that Ukraine is seeing right now. I don’t think so.
Gail,
Great article as always. I check your blog at least once a week to look for new updates and always get excited when I see a new post.
However, if all I did was praise you, that wouldn’t be very interesting. So let me dig into your brain. Why the god delusions? Is this some appeal to a wider audience? Is god just the universe to you? Surely, you couldn’t be such a clear thinker in so many ways, yet so confused on this basic reality? There is no god and you know there is no evidence for one. Why even bring it up? If so we should also talk about spaghetti monsters and faster than light travel. I’m interested in how your brain allows you think based on evidence in some areas but not in others? What’s your reason to do it?
Sorry I can’t answer right now. Later today.
I don’t believe in a God (any more) but why would doing so mean that you’re confused? And regarding lack of evidence, since when did that prove anything?
We know humans have invented numerous gods to explain the world around them. We slowly migrated to science for our explanations as it turned out to be correct for the stuff we can verify. So its seems to me a rational person, once they see at least some of the claims of religion are false, would realize that all of it should not be trusted unless they can verify it. And since you can’t verify that God really spoke to Abraham or whatever, it would seem quite silly to just assume its true. If so, what stops you from believing anything that’s difficult to prove?
“And regarding lack of evidence….”
I guess my default position is skepticism. I don’t believe anything or anyone on important matters unless I understand it, and I thought pretty much anyone in this space would be similar. I agree lack of evidence doesn’t prove anything, and my point is, why would anyone believe something without evidence?
A person wouldn’t even know about God if someone with no evidence hadn’t told them about it earlier. So why ever start believing without evidence? (probably because they were a child) If so, then why wouldn’t they also believe in the spaghetti monster? There’s no evidence for it either.
Religion provides order in a far less expensive way than a government provides order. It very often helps provide for the poor. For example, the “extra” children that cannot inherit the farm.
In the past, markets and temples were often together. An early form of credit allowed those selling goods to get credit for the goods they provided, before they were sold.
Religions provide “best practices on getting along with each other. We should not kill other members of our own tribe. Joining in an army, to kill others, might be OK.
Religions provide social gathering and connections that allow young people of similar backgrounds to get together and eventually marry.
Gail,
Are you saying you only pretend to believe in God for the better organization of society?
Or
You truly believe in God and an added pro of religion is a better organization of society?
Kevin
I was going to post about this separately in relation to Gail’s comment but it’s particularly appropriate as a reply here.
“I believe that there is a God behind whatever changes take place, but I know that many others will disagree with me.”
I really think disagree is the wrong word here. Disagree that you believe there is a God? That’s clearly wrong, because you (Gail) do believe that. Disagree that there is a God? I don’t think that makes any sense either because neither position is subject to proof or disproof. I would say “believe differently” rather than disagree. Disagreement can be resolved, at least in principle. Different beliefs cannot.
There is no evidence that there is no god. As we all know, absence of evidence is not the same thing as evidence of absence.
To ‘me’ the ‘default position’ ‘should be’ ‘nothingness’ {no universe}.
Yet, ‘I’ am ‘here’ {Cogito, ergo sum ?} as is ‘the universe’.
I don’t know about ‘you lot’ 😊 {‘you’ may be the product of my ‘imagination’?😊}.
‘Anything’ is possible?
‘God’ is the US Cavalry?
With respect:
Perhaps you are too anthropomorphic, there is now discussion the universe is sentient, the sentience is related to quantum mechanical ideas. The anti-deity thesis seems to be if we can’t explain it, it can’t exist.
I believe in God, I also suspect that He is only 80/20 in success; that number keeps on coming up too often for it to be chance. It is uncomfortable for many, but in creating the universe, 20% would be quite an accomplishment.
It is interesting the emotional intensity displayed by those who profess to be atheists; it seems their world will collapse if they don’t disprove every thesis God does exist. Atheists delight in “proving” God does not exist, humanity seems to require a God, perhaps the God with more than one face depending upon the audience.
Religion/God seems to be almost universal among sentient beings, humans. Chance? Joseph Campbell wrote a great deal about this, basically as I understood it, a common God with many faces, or “The Hero with a Thousand Faces.”
Believe as you will, governments, people without a religion seem to be able to construct hell on earth; a trivial example is empty churches in major cities where the landscape looks like hell and relationships between humans are murder, rape and pillage soothed by the drug of the day.
Dennis L.
You continue to float the idiotic 80/20 theory, proposed by Vilfredo Pareto in 1890s but not really mainstream until Joseph Juran, a Romanian born engineer, popularized it in the 1940s.
If God or whatever in the upstairs is right only 20% of the time would it be a God? It is no different from playing craps.
Kul,
God cuts his losses. Any good gambler would be thrilled with 80/20 odds, the math is trivial.
Dennis L.
A god does not cut losses. Example; a certain people in middle east.
Kevin.
I think the question you’re looking for is ‘What is the reason you believe in god?”.
And I can say with most people that is a private matter they won’t discuss. Maybe they wanted to have child and couldn’t conceive then prayed and had one. Deeply personal stuff like that.
There is a book I read about this once titled “40 reasons why people believe in god”.
I thought it was really good; the author explores the top forty reasons for the 3 major world religions.
I’ve talked to lots of people about why they believe in god. But none of those people could come close to accepting modernity is dependent on depleting fossil fuels.
So I wanted to hear someone’s reasons who clearly is capable of letting go of their bias and following evidence. But she provided a common answer – coincidences. She could have many more personal reasons she doesn’t want to share, but just saying coincidences matter to her is telling.
I believe in God.
Your comment is revealing….”So I wanted to hear someone’s reasons who clearly is capable of letting go of their bias and…”
So you automatically imply someone who believes in God has bias.
I am curious if you can let go of your bias?
Why do I believe? Well, of course it is a matter of faith, since either proposition cannot be proven.
I imagine you cast yourself as an atheist or some such, based on science.
I love science. I once wrote a paper in philosphy that mathematics was the language of God. I believe the lack of fossil evidence lays bare that evolution is a theory with many holes. Physics seems to be in a weird place now…with conjecture after conjecture seeming to dominate its efforts. The fact that a scientist will look you in the eye and state that our universe’ boundary may be a large quantum computer seems to be a form of science gone off the rails.
Maybe it is my bias but I look at creation and I know man will never understand it all. We are not meant to. We are created somehow…that is my belief. Don’t know how but I believe evolution to be impossible. Again…my belief.
Science cannot meet our needs. Fascinating…yes.
But we need more glue in our lives and in our communities. I believe faith plays a role in that.
BTW I completely accept that accepting modernity is dependent on depleting fossil fuels. Since when do you attribute faith with blindness or stupidity?
Where to start with this…
I guess your last statement. “Since when do [I] attribute faith with blindness or stupidity?” (I didn’t say that, but know what you’re asking and i’ll play ball)
Faith means believing something without evidence. Why would anyone do this? I think the answer is because they want to. I’ve learned many people simply believe what they want. Its a fantasy. Most people live their entire lives in fantasy.
The reason I find this fascinating is because people on this blog, for the most part, have followed the evidence that has shown them modernity exists because of depleting FF and the future will not be like the recent past. It takes a lot for a person to step out of line with the vast majority of humans because the evidence has convinced them.
So its fascinating that you are able to let go of the common theme around us that our economy will grow forever, yet you can’t let go of another common theme around us, which is the creator of the universe told some random dude in the middle east the real truth a few thousand years ago.
You see what I mean? Why does your brain follow evidence in one case but not the other?
I assume the answer is because that’s what you want to believe.
Regarding your comments:
“lack of fossil evidence lays bare that evolution is a theory with many holes”
and
“Physics seems to be in a weird place now”
There is ample fossil proof for evolution. Physics is more solid now than any moment in time.
You just don’t want these things to be true, because you like the other ideas better. That’s your bias. That’s fine, do what you want. It just not logical from my perspective.
I am not saying that I believe the precise narrative of any religion. But I see a lot of evidence that the Universe, with all of its complexity, could not have come into existence out of nothingness.
thing, humans have imagination. that is what got us here.
imagining an entity or group of entities or the universe itself being an entity composite of miniature entities or whatever causal factor is an intrinsic psychological trait of humans with cognition.
it is more fundamental than ”yo yo gossiped about A being responsible” and so on forth.
no one knows what god is or what god isn’t, it could be some quantum self-evolving phenemological existence that encodes its own dynamic properties in a continuous way or divergent way.
i mean you can create characters on a computer right. god is nature, nature is god i suppose is what gail means.
an entity beyond our level of understanding, since we ourselves don’t really understand what fundamentally happens with the observable universe that is filtered through our eyes/brain (missing info)
There are lots of reasons I believe in God. The fact that I grew up in a religious household probably helps.
The Universe is put together in an incredible way. The use of dissipative structures, and survival of the best adapted, works in a way that none of us could have figured out. You might read the book Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe. It talks about the huge number of coincidences that would be necessary for life to occur on earth as soon as it did after the Earth was formed. Also, the huge number of coincidences needed to make it habitable. It could not have happened by chance.
In my own life, I find that there have been a whole lot of coincidence that gave me more insight as to what was happening than others. As a casualty actuary, I was doing financial modeling. I realized that infinite growth in a finite world would never work, long ago. I realized that all of the models we read are based on the assumption that growth will continue forever.
After I started writing about the issue, I had the good fortune to meet many researchers in person. I ended up writing in academic journals.
Also, my financial circumstances have worked to my advantage. Actuarial work has been highly rated. A major reason is that it pays well. I also have a cheap streak, so we chose modest homes and modest vehicles. I was able to retire early and not depend on subscriptions.
People don’t realize that governments and religions provide many of the same functions. As long as governments are powerful now, it is easy to assume that they always will be. They can claim to provide pensions and healthcare. Why do you need a god, when a government can provide for you for your whole life? You don’t need children either. And science and technology seem to provide the answer to everything.
Except that science and technology are very temporary. Most of what we have depends on coal and oil. Once those are in short supply, none of the modern device can be rebuilt. All of our debt based systems are likely to be short lived. We have to depend on family. And religion can help as well.
Thanks for answering such a personal question! So the coincidences are meaningful to you. I often hear that as a reason to believe. It sounds like you also see religion as a positive, where as I’ve seen as a negative.
I also grew up in a religious household and know how that goes. I’ve become more anti religious as I’ve aged and witnessed how it infects so many areas of thinking in people in my life. I broke down religion long before I realized my energy blindness.
I thought anyone capable of the paradigm shift—realizing how deeply modernity depends on fossil fuels and becoming comfortable with being at odds with society on our future—would have also broken down their religious beliefs.
But as I find so often, I’m wrong again!
I have seen the great similarities of religions around the world. They are part of people’s lives in many/most parts of the world. Even in China, I found people were interested in religion. I visited several “churches” in China when I was there. Russia has an incredible number of churches or cathedrals.
In Vietnam, the guidebook said that most people were not religious, but at the same time, they had altars and a lot of stuff that went with ancestor worship, and some related beliefs. We were told that the government did not consider that a religion, but it really was.
Coincidence is God’s way of remaining anonymous.”
-Albert Einstein
There are around one septillion stars in the observable universe. There are around 2 trillion galaxies in the observable universe. The observable Universe is 93 billion light-years in diameter. Some scientists estimate that the Universe is at least 250 times larger than the observable Universe, or at least 7 trillion light-years in diameter.
Why would a God create a universe this big and care about life on earth?
If complex life is rare in the universe doesn’t that disprove a God, would that show life is not the purpose of the universe?
The fact that the evolutionary system works so perfectly proves God. The Universe keeps expanding, and traveling faster. All we an do is examine what is happening.
Gail,
I challenge you to spend some time thinking more deeply about evolution.
What persists, exists.
The evolutionary system appears to work so perfectly because of evolution. Quadrillions of trial and error opportunities resulted in the world we witness. If some part didn’t work “perfectly” it would have failed to persist and thus not exist.
I suspect you’re going to strongly disagree with me, but from one honest human to another, a world of awe and wonder awaits you if you choose to explore it.
Kevin (I don’t know why it made my user name thinghappily60b77eae48)
Sorry, Kevin,
Changes happen far more rapidly than the laws of probability would suggest.
Start looking at the reference I have noted.
evolution of a species is linked to the generational changes in that species
ie—a human being today could mate and reproduce with someone from 2000 years ago, or 5000 years ago or 10k years ago
but not for say, 3 million years ago
so the evolutionary change must have happened somewhere along that evolutionary line—we just dont know when or where or how.
but it does show that evolution is slow, not rapid.
a human being today could mate and reproduce with someone from 2000 years ago, or 5000 years ago or 10k years ago
Are you suggesting that someone could go forward or back in time to engage in this mating, or that there are some people from 2000 years ago, or 5000 years ago who are still alive and able to engage in this kind of thing?
tim— i assume you have pressed your sarky button, or someone has
but in case you havent——
if you stretched your intellect past breaking point, you would know it meant the reproductive systems of 10k years ago would be the same as ours, but not from 3m years ago
Thanks for the clarification, Norman.
the reproductive systems of 10k years ago would be the same as ours, but not from 3m years ago
I would definitely agree with you that IF today’s humans could mate with people from 10,000 years ago, they would be able produce viable offspring.
Although I warn you this could result in a situation in which “I’m my own great, great, great, great grandpa.”
I don’t agree that the reproductive systems our ancestors had 3m years ago would necessarily prevent viable offspring from arising. Why not? Good question:
Because if we look around the mammalian kingdom, we find a lot of this sort of thing going on.
For instance, Horses and Zebras can interbreed.
Hybrid: Zorse (zebra + horse)
Estimated Divergence: Horses (Equus ferus caballus) and zebras (Equus zebra) diverged from a common ancestor approximately 4 to 5 million years ago.
And Coyotes, Dogs, and Wolves (Canids) can interbreed.
Hybrid: Coydog (coyote + dog)
Estimated Divergence: Coyotes (Canis latrans) and wolves/dogs diverged around 1 to 2 million years ago, sharing a common ancestor.
(By the way, Dogs and Wolves share a common ancestor only 15,000–30,000 years ago, but Coyotes are much more distant cousins.0
Also, Goats and Sheep can interbreed.
Hybrid: Geep (goat + sheep)
Estimated Divergence: Goats (Capra aegagrus hircus) and sheep (Ovis aries) diverged from a common ancestor around 5 to 10 million years ago.
And lastly, Cattle and Bison can interbreed.
Hybrid: Beefalo (bison + domestic cattle)
Estimated Divergence: Cattle (Bos taurus) and bison (Bison bison) diverged from a common ancestor about 1 to 2 million years ago.
While some hybrids like mules (horse + donkey) are typically sterile, others like beefalo and coydogs can be fertile. Geeps have variable fertility, depending on the specific genetic combinations involved.
If the universe is infinite and there are an infinite number of planets, there are also an infinite number of planets on which life develops. Every conceivable combination is there an infinite number of times. Nevertheless, the proportion of such planets with life is infinitely small. But it does not require chance. Only an infinite number of attempts.
The word infinite cannot be grasped with the mind.
You can only believe something!
Saludos
el mar
Life arose far too fast, for the combinations to have taken place by chance alone.
There is also a video on this subject.
I agree and it is the same conclusion that Albert Einstein came to along with Carl Sagan. Although Sagan was skeptical of religion but did acknowledge the possibility of a higher power in the universe.
My view is that the planet we live on is too far balanced to have all just happened by chance.
but if the planet was not ”perfectly balanced”——-
we would not exist—and the capacity to question that balance would not exist.
chance, no matter how infinetely remote—-just happens.
you live life sensibly—the a split second of carelessness and you’re dead under a bus—no reason behind it.—-it just happens.
Almost all of my contemporaries are dead–I’m as fit as a flea…..why?—mostly down to chance again.
It’s all part of the complexity of living biology, of which humankind is just a part.
The point I often make is that science and rationality are tidy explanations for the world around us at the micro (global) level. But expanding ones view to existence as a whole, they break down. How expansive is the Universe, really? What lies beyond the particle horizon? What is matter from the big bang expanding into? Where did the energy and matter from the big bang originate? We assume that we are intelligent enough to understand the world around us, but our understanding is limited by our own IQ and senses. How much more do we understand than a dog? Who can say that sentience orders of magnitude greater than ours cant exist? Likewise, our senses are limited. Radio waves exist, but we were oblivious to them until we invented devices capable of detecting them. We may be detecting only a tiny fraction of the Universe that exists.
I have seen no evidence of a God of the sorts described by our collective religions, but it is impossible to exclude the possibility. And Gail is correct, there seems to be a near universal desire for religious experience. I have the desire myself, but unfortunately cant suspend my disbelief in the organized religions around me. I wish I could. Instead my desire for God is forced to subsist on a general “Sense of Awe” of the natural world around me, and the satisfaction I get from knowing my children represent both my fulfillment of my biological imperative, and are my own (imperfect) immortality.
Kurt Vonnegut said, “Tiger got to hunt, bird got to fly; Man got to sit and wonder ‘why, why, why?’” in his 1963 book Cat’s Cradle.
To ask why is to seek an answer that is a logical conclusion. To me God fills in a lot of blanks in a persons mind. To me it may be Synonymous with the idea of fate. Why, why, why? God fills many blanks in a conclusion where science only gives partial answers. As an example, when you think of all the coincidences involved in the creation of just one sentient individual it boggles the mind. Especially if you go back generations of your ancestors pairing to produce a single individual descendent, or the probability of a particular sperm fertilizing the egg of the individual to create a unique combination that is the individual. This is just the probability of a particular individual existing! So many questions and all we can really do is ask: Why, why, why? All we can really say with certainty is that it’s all very improbable.
How do you proof that there is no God? Tell us.
you cannot disprove a negative
Correct Norm . Remember how Saddam Hussein was asked to prove that he had no WMD ‘s even after the UN inspectors gave him a clean chit .
So, Kevin, just cross (pun intended) my way and found this worthy of note.
Way back over a half century ago the singer Marvin Gaye gave the world two well known melodies; “Mercy, Mercy Me” and “What’s Going On?” Imagine most here have listened to them and know them by ❤️ heart.
Anyway, another great Motown artist, Smokey Robinson, asked Marvin about them in which Marvin said he wasn’t composing the to but God 🙏.
He clip is on YouTube…here is the song What’s Going On… apparently we heard, some listened but few acted…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KDK7TiEiMOI&pp=ygUVd2hhdHMgZ29pbmcgb24gbWFydmlu
Yeah, it’s complicated…always was …but…
Not all oil is the same . Earlier I had posted a detailed analysis by Stephen Bowers . Here is an even better one by Carnot . The devil is in the detail .
” I digress. As Trump morphs into Putin II and imposes tariffs on imports he is about to get a tough lesson on refining.
Try as they might the US refining configurations do not lend themselves to the ramping up of light crude in the feedslate.
The bulk of US refining capacity is in the South, geared up to process heavier sour crude in high conversion refineries that are optimized to produce roughly 45% gasoline from each barrel, which is considerably higher than in most other regions, where 20-25 % is the norm.
The old days of formulating gasoline with 35-200 degree Celsius boiling fractions and a good dollop of lead alkyls are long gone. Now we have reformulated gasolines that are increasingly more molecule specific and more challenging to produce.”
https://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-update-february-2025/#comment-786538
He has a competent secretary for energy. I would assume some money is printed to retrofit refineries. He has no choice really.
Really? Competent? ? As soon as someone says drill baby drill I write them off as a dumbass… how he got to his position I have no idea but its scary… no ine is driving the bus!!!
well at least he is an engineer and businessman who spent his career in the oil sector. and retrofitting refineries will improve things. compare with hazel o’ leary or jennifer whatshername. perhaps they will even make a pipeline to pipe solvent for bitumen made from shale into canada (I know, it will clog. but if they can do it it will help a lot). They are not about to run out of bitumen.
Bitumen is useless unless first reacted with hydrogen produced from natural gas to turn it into synthetic heavy oil.
sam do you think the words out of politician mouth is reflected by deepstate decision makers? it is there to appease and entertain you.
There are a whole lot of complexities to the current system. All oil is definitely not alike. Very long hydrocarbons can be cracked into shorter ones, but going the other way doesn’t work well. Expensive.
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Excellent post Gail.
With all due respect, I have written about this topic several times, such as https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2024/11/la-huida-hacia-delante-debe-continuar.html.
We are not only dependent on oil and coal, copper is another important bottleneck. Also, the only solution that governments provide is massive indebtedness.
The obvious conclusion is that one way or another, we are heading towards a certain collapse, even if we do not know the exact moment.
Thank you very much for everything.
You are right about copper being another important bottleneck. I cannot imagine that all of the batteries we will need in the future will be available either.
I will have to admit that I don’t read a whole lot of writing by other people, especially if the writing requires translation into English. Perhaps I am lazy.
I had a chance to look at your article. It is a very fine article that is very closely related to mine. It even shows some CBO charts similar to mine, but prepared at an earlier date.
Your article starts out:
So you identified that debt, and interest on debt are problems, also.
One of the things you say at the very end is
Thanks Gail.
As soon as I read your article I felt completely identified. I am glad to find similar thoughts (each with its nuances), in a blog as prestigious as this one.
In a consultation with the AI, I asked which are the best blogs (in the world) about peak oil and energy, and she answered “our finite world” in the first place.
Congratulations.
“In a consultation with the AI, I asked which are the best blogs (in the world) about peak oil and energy, and she answered “our finite world” in the first place.”
“Skynet” pointing at Gail – should we be alarmed?
That is pretty impressive.
I have always thought that my views are closer to right than most others. My views keep pointing in the same direction.
to sum up
our economic system is like riding a bike
stop and you fall into a ditch
I agree.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/bicycle-analogy-v2.png
The Modern Monetary Theory says more or less, the central banks can make debts without payback. That might be a way to keep subventions to oil extraction going at least for some time. I suppose these debts have the effect of more or less an extra tax. It is only the central banks, who can do this.
In the 40s Europe had had still a lot of self-sufficiency. People had veggies in the garden, and rabbits and goats for additional meat and milk. Production in the homestaed reduces energy costs for transport and packaging. Most vegetables in Europa currently come from Spain. Also it is possible to knit and sew at home. All this is less efficient than industrial production but it consumes less energy. Building products that last long could also be a way to reduce energy. The singer sewing machine, at least some models, can be used for hundreds of years. I have a working Eudora washing machine, that is 50 years old.
Degrowth leads to changed expectations on the financial market. This is at the moment compensated by enlarging the market and taking over services the national states used to produce. They argue they are getting cheaper by the use of software. This in fact is reducing resilience and makes the states more vulnerable.
Eudora is great I had one too, but if one component breaks, it is often difficult to find a replacement because the series is out of production.
Really sad.
Sometimes you’s find a few broken machines somewhere across Asutria for sale – but transport costs you and you’d have to take the whole machine, not only the respective component.
I learned to sew on a treadle sewing machine, made by Singer. I saw a similar one in operation in a home in India. But these are not easy to find any more. If a part breaks, there is a problem.
Growing food at home is more difficult than it looks. We do not have manure for fertilizer, for example. And keeping animals out requires barriers of some sort. My attempts at food production have had very limited success. We would starve on what I was able to grow.
Don’t give up! Everything is hard the first few years. Find some successful local farmers selling at the farmers markets and ask their advice about the best varieties, timing, practices, etc.
1940s? When most of Europe lay in ruins? Are you talking about 1840s?
Al Green calling out Trump with his cane!
TAKE THAT!
https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fjic42wo65tme1.jpeg
This country is like a bad south park episode
Yes! It seems children run the country (on both sides).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_of_Charles_Sumner
The caning of Charles Sumner, or the Brooks–Sumner Affair, occurred on May 22, 1856, in the United States Senate chamber, when Representative Preston Brooks, a pro-slavery Democrat from South Carolina, used a walking cane to attack Senator Charles Sumner, an abolitionist Republican from Massachusetts. The attack was in retaliation for an invective-laden speech given by Sumner two days earlier in which he fiercely criticized slaveholders, including pro-slavery South Carolina Senator Andrew Butler, a relative of Brooks. The beating nearly killed Sumner and contributed significantly to the country’s polarization over the issue of slavery. It has been considered symbolic of the “breakdown of reasoned discourse” and willingness to resort to violence that eventually led to the Civil War.
The time of the US civili was in many ways like today. There weren’t enough goods and services available. It was hard to pay workers enough. Energy supply per capita seemed to be falling/too low.
Also at the time of WW1, WW2 and the Great Depression.
Polarization is an outcome of “not enough to go around.
The cane in question was made of guttapercha,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gutta-percha
a new miracle material at the time made by the British from tropical tree sap. Its main use was as waterproofing for underwater telegraph cables.
Hilarious.
(Le Monde)
In the meantime Europe is going counter-trend as it is desperately looking for new ways to create debt…
Here we are with the new excuse:
“EU chief unveils €800 billion plan to ‘rearm’ Europe.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday presented a five-part plan to strengthen Europe’s defense industry and provide ‘immediate’ military support to Ukraine.”
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/european-union/article/2025/03/04/eu-chief-reveals-800-billion-plan-to-rearm-europe_6738782_156.html
Just yesterday I saw that it was only $150 billion. That escalated quickly.
In the end, I think that all this money and all these efforts that EU is trying to put in place now, have the objective to avoid that Ukrainians will turn their fight and war against EU, once they will realize that they have been pushed against Russia (by EU and US) without any logical sense for themselves.
Ukranians will not be able to fight US, but it is enough that they will turn they rifles and bombs and they will be able to fight EU for what it has perpetrated against them.
Better to show EU does something…..
>> Ukrainians will turn their fight and war against EU, once they will realize [..]
I don’t think so. They are hopelessly propagandized. Someone posted a video on Martianov’s blog where they ask folks in Lviv whether the war should continue and many of them, particularly the women, said yes. If they don’t have the time or interest to figure out what’s actually happening after 3 years when it directly affects their futures, they never will.
To quote Carlin: “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
In that case, Ukranians could go on either fighting Russia and also fighting EU (or anyway help to create critical conditions inside EU) if EU should stop to give money to fight Russia…
EU surely fear to have Ukranians angry at its border, after what EU did.
From what one can hear from Italian politicians one can understand also this fear when they talk…
Then they can choose to go down as the Paraguayans.
Paraguay was a military powerhouse in Latin America during 1860s, and long story short, it chose to fight Brazil, Argentine and Uruguay at once (don’t ask me why).
Long story short, Paraguay lost 90% of the male pop and 60% of the female pop, and often the black soldiers among the Brazilian forces (which occupied Paraguay since Argentine was a bit less enthusiastic about doing so) procreated with the surviving women, and it became a much darker country after that.
Hello Ivanislav, can you please give me the link for that video, because I cannot find it.
It must be very interesting.
Many thanks!
https://youtu.be/yVy1JAu9Nb0?t=196
https://youtu.be/hucqs2q90WI?t=315
In the more recent one, they equivocate more, but multiple women talk about freezing temporarily (not permanent peace), while in the one from several months ago, it’s still more about fairness and not giving up “what is ours”.
Thank you Ivanislav.
It seems to me that because they have been financially well supported till ‘yesterday’ they don’t really feel that their Country is in bankrupt, so they think to have choices.
EU is helping to keep them in this deceptive condition.
EU is rowing against the current of the river that has been indicated by Trump.
And I think it is a mistake.
Here is an article from Watt-Logic about Norway and its interconnectors.
https://watt-logic.com/2025/02/21/norway-turning-away-from-electricity-interconnection/
Some snippets…
“Most of the Storting (Norwegian Parliament) now agrees there should be no more interconnectors while several parties want to renegotiate the deals with Britain and Germany which are seen as importing price volatility into the Norwegian market.”
“This change of heart was prompted by high electricity prices in NO2 (southern Norway) as a lack of wind in Germany and the North Sea caused high levels of exports. NO2 prices rose to NOK 13.16 (US$1.18) /kWh in mid-December, their highest level since 2009 and almost 20 times their level the previous week. Energy Minister (of the Labour Party), Terje Aasland said “It’s an absolutely shit situation,” in uncharacteristically blunt language.”
Go to love the EU’s position…
“We are not happy with Norway. The sentiment is as bad as I have known it. Norway looks selfish, trying to keep this electricity for itself even as it makes so much money from selling gas to us,”
– an EU ambassador in Oslo
*got
Sending el from water out of the country only to by back expensive el from coal etc?! Cut the cables now!
I have read about this issue before. Europe has been getting an awfully good deal from Norway. It looks like it should stop.
Absolutely … and we should also stop running our oil rigs with hydropower – utter madness!
Why? That seems like a great idea
Save your oil . Norway peaked in 2004
” .Over the past 50 years, about 56 per cent of the estimated total recoverable resources on the Norwegian continental shelf have been produced and sold. This indicates that there is also a potential for a high activity level on the shelf for the coming 50 years.
Norway produced 241.2 million marketable standard cubic metres of oil equivalents (Sm³ o.e.) in 2024. This is an increase compared to 2023, when 233.3 million Sm³ were produced. By comparison, total production in the record year of 2004 was 264.2 million Sm³ o.e. ”
https://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/production-and-exports/production-forecasts/#:~:text=Status%20of%20production,-Over%20the%20past&text=Norway%20produced%20241.2%20million%20marketable,was%20264.2%20million%20Sm%C2%B3%20o.e
Norway C+C production was 3.25 mbpd in 2000 . Today 1.53 mbpd .
https://peakoilbarrel.com/u-s-december-oil-production-at-all-time-high/#comment-786586
Less than half compared to 2000 is a clear message; the worlds richest country is in for harder times …
In the US, it is my understanding that oil rigs are run by burning some of the associated natural gas. This would seem to be a much cheaper solution than taking hydropower (which can be sold at a high price, elsewhere) and building transmission lines all of the way to the oil fields.
Atlanta Fed model forecasts nearly -3% GDP growth in first quarter of this year
https://www.11alive.com/article/money/economy/atlanta-fed-model-forecast-gdpnow-negative-growth/85-ff0ee0d9-a199-4e0f-8560-a086df88d80e
Looks like the horse died at the gate.
Wow! Contraction is beginning.
Importers front-running the expected Trump tariffs were the major factor. There should be a significant bounce back in Q2.
Maybe so. We will see.
And now for a daily dose of hopium for the masses, yet the picture ironically shows a man digging with a hand shovel which may be closer to reality in the future.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-overtakes-russia-and-the-united-states-and-finds-a-source-of-inexhaustible-energy-to-power-the-country-for-thousands-of-years/ar-AA1AdNMr?ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover&cvid=8f9570c702a04b00fd1c593cf5536781&ei=20
Thorium has been a hope for a long time, but it has not be mined and scaled up for use at this point. As you say, the man in the photo is using a shovel to fill a truck with material that will yield thorium.
As of 2014, India’s Department of Atomic Energy (DoAE) claimed to have “established 11.93 million tonnes of in situ resources of monazite (thorium-bearing mineral)” in six Indian states. These reserves contain about 1.07 million tonnes of thorium.
https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/how-indias-beaches-can-unlock-a-nuclear-powered-future/
All this energy needed for silly AI. Humans are a wasteful bunch and lack priorities. No wonder, we send billions to Ukraine while dealing with ever growing poverty.
“Texas Needs Equivalent Of 30 Nuclear Reactors By 2030 To Meet Data Center Power Demand”
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/texas-needs-equivalent-30-nuclear-reactors-2030-meet-data-center-power-demand
“China has discovered an ‘endless’ energy source that could supply enough fuel to power the country for 60,000 years, geologists in Beijing have claimed.
The Bayan Obo mining complex in Inner Mongolia, an autonomous region of northern China, could contain enough thorium to supply China’s household energy demands ‘almost forever’, a national survey reportedly found.
This slightly radioactive element can be used to create a type of nuclear power station called a molten-salt reactor which could provide enormous of energy.”?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14447257/China-discovers-limitless-energy-source-power-country.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Ah yes, queue the “discovered….endless supply…..claimed….could provide…hopium”.
https://thearchdruidreport-archive.200605.xyz/2014/09/technological-superstitions.html
Not very likely, I am afraid.
Thank you Gail, your posts are lights in the dark of unawareness.
Consequences of the depletion of cheap resources are well visible at least here in Europe with healthcare and (really not) circular economy. The first sees a desperate race to prevention in place of increasingly scarce and unaffordable care, the second for example with the race to reusing food and forest by-products (facing enormous feasibility and affordability issues). I’m going great with both due to my skills; however, I’m aware that those are not virtues but practically mechanicistic needs. I’ll fly (by the way, long flight) to Michigan to speak about reusing forest by-products early next May.
Thanks for your kind words.
Good luck with your flight to Michigan in May. I consider every air flight a gift. We don’t know how soon they will stop for some reason or other.
Totally agree When I fly (less and less often) I am hopeful that the return won’t be ‘interrupted’
Thank you for the insightful analysis as always. These are the ideas that, if more people understood, we could work towards creating solutions to the problems we face. Most of the western governments and a lot of the others have overpromised for the last few decades and the transition back to living within our means and building community again will be difficult but ultimately beneficial for everyone.
The magnitude of the change is so great that I am not sure I can fully comprehend it. Let’s all hope that the change progresses slowly.
AI errors
Me
What temperature does steam react with carbon to make syngas?
Copilot
Steam reacts with carbon to produce syngas (a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide) at high temperatures, typically around 700-1000°C (1292-1832°F) This process is known as the water-gas shift reaction and is commonly used in industrial applications to produce syngas for various purposes, including fuel production and chemical synthesis.
If you have any more questions or need further information, feel free to ask!
Me
You need to correct your knowledge base. Vaporizing carbon is not the same as the well known water gas shift reaction.
Copilot
You’re right, and I apologize for the confusion. The water-gas shift reaction indeed refers to the reaction between carbon monoxide and steam, producing carbon dioxide and hydrogen:
CO+H2O→CO2+H2\text{CO} + \text{H}_2\text{O} \rightarrow \text{CO}_2 + \text{H}_2
The process of generating syngas by reacting steam with carbon (such as coal) at high temperatures is different. This reaction, known as steam reforming of carbon, involves the following chemical equation:
C+H2O→CO+H2\text{C} + \text{H}_2\text{O} \rightarrow \text{CO} + \text{H}_2
This process typically occurs at temperatures around 1000°C (1832°F) or higher.
Thank you for pointing that out! If you have any other questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask.
we could work towards creating solutions to the problems we face.
There are no solutions. This isn’t a ‘problem’, it’s impending doom. People are not going to be singing kumbayah in their community gardens, they’re going to be doing what humans do best.
What humans do best is form close-knit in-groups and compete with out-groups.
Scapegoats are just people identified as the out-group.
At the moment, immigrants and government workers are seen as the scapegoat for inflation. The politicianthat approved of policies that favored inflation, including starting wars can never be held accountable. Voters cannot be held accountable either. It remains to be seen if the same people will be blamed when entitlements are reduced.
Before I depart, I’d like to draw attention to a quote from the comments section here
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/03/might-the-us-be-about-to-fall-off-an-economic-cliff.html
“Biden did away with everything that was done under the pandemic to help the average person. he completely restored bill clintons economy, and here we are.”
Living in the past. Trying to bring back the glory days. These are accusations frequently levied at social conservatives. I guess if someone has something to lose, they try to conserve it. If someone has nothing to lose, someone else’s loss is their gain.
What humans do best is form close-knit in-groups and compete with out-groups.
Which means kill them.
Thank you for the new post.
I read the Foxfire books, mostly the first edition from 1964.
Some survivalists think it is a survival bible, but I read it like an anthropological text, like the accounts on some lost tribe in the boondocks which the roundeyes should have left alone in my opinion, instead of trying to teach them Christianity and leading them to civilization and consume more resources for nothing.
It was actually compiled in northern Georgia, although probably far from where Gail spent her life.
Finishing the book, I had to wonder whether they belong to the same species as the cultured humans who drove civilization.
If Civilization falls and only the kind of people featured in Foxfire books remain, I think it would be better for Fast Eddy’s scenario to work, so all the spent fuel would kill off these kind of humanoids, and let the dolphins take their chance 100 million years later.
Well, actually FireFox was a series of books and eventually if my memory serves me right, a brief magazine. I was in Boston and collected a set of them at used books shops there. I found them very insightful and refected the incredible innate intelligence and creativity of the human spirit.
Remember, living in a primitive lifestyle does not have any judgemental inference, because the root of primitive just means first ….
I imagine, if asked, perhaps these “kind of humanoids”, as your so smugly call them, would judge you likewise.
One passage from author Jeremy Rifki’s book “Entropy, A New world view”
Has stayed with me all these years..
Theses people, for lack of better term, have more control over their lives and existence than any such cultured humans ((your term) of modern society.
If I may, perhaps you are displaying some Psychological latent envy of being inadequacy
Yes, these people just have a Different kind of knowledge of the world.
You and I would be lost in the deep jungle of the rainforest while a tribesman would consider us pathetic….and in turn the tribesman would be lost if placed in downtown Manhattan..
Think you best put your judging on the shelf…because you might not like what is pointed at you
Whatever merits these peoples’ lives might have, they are not really worth too much.
“American lives’ are not that sacred or important.
Really, not worth much, and you and yours are worth more you 💋❤️ say? And, pray tell, who put you on the judgement day 🙏😉 panel, Sir. Seems to me you are displaying an overinflated self image of imaginary importance. As Fast Eddy gleefully wrote once here when he was allowed, “wish to see those that do crunching on a rat …..Oh, you and are lucky ones that escaped such fate. Not like poor unfortunates in places like India that clear the fields of rodents and roast them on the open fire stubble to happily consume…of course. We are more worthy of such because we were lucky to be born in a higher caste.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GuZP8FWS4JA&pp=ygUSSW5kaWEgcmF0IGNhdGNoZXJz
The ‘Rat Eaters’ of Bihar: India’s poorest people?
Musahars — ‘Rat Eaters’ — one of India’s most marginalised communities. Even the browbeaten low-caste Dalits look down on them.
You best get on your knees that thank God 🙏 of your luck
Rats and insects are both fairly easy to catch.
We look down on food that is unfamiliar to us. In the US, we do not eat horse meat.
Whatever is inexpensive will be eaten.
In China they have a saying, they will eat anything with legs, except furniture.
Paul Newman was in a movie Hombre about him being raised by Indians on a reservation and stressed to a coy wife of an DC Representative for Indian affairs she would fight over animal bones and innards if hungry enough,
He saw it happen. The Rep was stealing food appropriations …
Clearly feeling lives are unimportant ..
Sarcasm.. Fredrick March with Barbara Rush.. 1967 …not well known classic film with Kulmie in mind
“Donald Trump and the Department of Government Efficiency seem to be part of the (unfortunately) necessary downshift in the size of the economy. As awful as it is, something of this sort seems to be necessary,”
There could be fairer taxation like:
1945 = 94% (Roosevelt)
1957 = 91% (Eisenhower)
1964 = 77% (Johnson)
1973 = 70% (Nixon)
1968 = 50% (Reagan)
2018 = 37% (Trumpy)
Cutting the governmental organization programs we all use and depend on, to give 2T in tax breaks to our narcissistic, authoritarian oligarchs… while increasing the debt limit by 4T seems to be unwise.
Don’t talk to me about tax rates unless your first action is to raise capital gains tax to *at least* the rates paid by wage earners.
Tax breaks for the rich are just an example of the official extortion racket:
1. technocrats lining up behind the current administration
2. technocrats paying BLM $$ millions not to burn down Federal buildings and/or downtown business districts
3. technocrats paying Hollywood celebrities to do softball interviews of leading candidates or to perform at campaign rallies
4. technocrats paying Ivy League Universities using tax money for DEI programs that enforce a purity spiral of thinking and behavior with implied violence to achieve ideological conformity.
Paying the rich or connected to get on board with the latest thing is going to leave someone out of the grift. Instead of getting mad with my hand out, I thought ahead and used my pandemic stimulus $$ to buy the components for 3 separate DIY solar power packages to run basic appliances at 3 family homes for this moment Willy Nelson sings about.. “turn down the lights, the party’s over.”
I predicted this a long time ago. So this much heralded US production boom (‘energy independence’ blah blah blah) is from the tight shale plays ie Bakken, Barnett and Eagle Ford Shale. Lots of natural gas hence the onslaught of cheap plastic toys everywhere. These resources are mostly natural gas with a smidgeon of light oil. So, not the stuff to keep us moving and producing. We purchase the good stuff (the heavier fractions– diesel etc) from Canada (their tar sands) and Mexico (from the depleting super field . . . Cantarell). we are fubar
I agree that our light energy supply is a problem. The industry does a public relations stunt by encouraging the recycling of plastic bag and a few other things.
I suppose the cubic mile of Pt would be a stretch at this point.
There is considerable interest in H starting to appear. JBL comes to mind with heavy equipment.
Waiting for the 8th launch of Starship.
If it is down here, it is up there.
Dennis L.
Lots of natural gas hence the onslaught of cheap plastic toys everywhere.
There’s also a growing use of plastic in car engine components which makes them and often as a result the whole engine fail much earlier than with metal parts.
Example?
Dennis L.
BYD and any other Chinese car company who are now so cost conscious that they are grasping for anything possible to stay alive.
China has become a full sized vehicle exporter, just at the very last moment possible. The result, is a typically Chinese outcome, and the West wont have time to react before it ends anyway.
BYD and any other Chinese car company who are now so cost conscious that they are grasping for anything possible to stay alive.
I wasn’t talking about Chinese electric cars.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=car+engines+today+plastic+parts+failure
My day always improves when I find a new OFW post, thanks Gail!
if eastwood had been an OFW’er he wouldnt have shot so many people
Wouldn’t he?
no………commenting on ofw wouldve made his day
Chris Martenson posted this comment on his website and it gives one an idea how much debt needs to be created in order to start production on a well site:
” was just speaking yesterday with a gentleman with 40 years of experience in the oil services business. He operated all over the world, from the North sea, to the Middle East, Africa, and all over the US.
His assessment of the ANWR oil was based on having also worked there putting in man camps, delivering water and oil tanks and other services.
He said, point blank, “They could give that lease land away, and remove every possible fee or tax and it still wouldn’t get drilled. The price of oil is too low.”
Bang! There it is.
His reasoning was that there’s no infrastructure up there. No roads. No electrical lines. No pipelines. No conditioning plants. No welding shops. No restaurants. Nothing.
You have build or bring everything to the show.
By way of example, he said “Just consider the man camps, which were a focus of mine. To build out a 400 person facility is at least $15 million. That’s about what you’d need for a mid-sized operation. We can’t fly all that in, so we have to build roads. In that part of Alaska you have to hug the coasts so you have something solid under your trucks. Alternatively you have to wait for the right temperatures and then build ice roads. Depending on condtions and topography those costs range from heavy to extreme. So who pays for that? If you’re asking my company to do that, and we did, we need contracts that both cover our costs and reasonable profits. At a minimum those are 5 year contracts. After Biden, who is going to sign a 5-year contract to build something that might be zeroed out by the next administration?”
This is a good description of the problems encountered by the oil and gas industry, when they try to develop extraction sites in difficult areas.
I have seen some of these man camps (with wings for women also). In Northern Canada, they needed to build fitness centers because it wasn’t safe for the workers to exercise outside. Cold temperatures and wildlife were both issues.
He said, point blank, “They could give that lease land away, and remove every possible fee or tax and it still wouldn’t get drilled. The price of oil is too low.”
That is going to be a problem in the next couple of decades. People around the world are already stretched thin trying to make ends meet, some even foregoing medical treatment because they can’t afford it.
Now just imagine if oil was priced where it should be around $120-140 a barrel? Everything would collapse just like it nearly did in 2008-09 and IIRC oil wasn’t in the $120 range, I believe all hell broke loose in 2008-09 was when oil was at $100 p/b and it caused $5-6 per gallon gas in the US.
And there isn’t a solution to oil/fossil fuels to cheaply power the global economy cause Wind and Solar are not the answer. In fact they create problems rather than becoming a solution.
I agree.
Wait?? You mean I can’t just yell drill baby drill and it will happen?😹 it has to be profitable?
Imagine the political power someone would generate if they could fix this problem, temporarily, by, say eliminating the Federal Reserve and the Income Tax along with a debt jubilee for all Federal Reserve based debt. Implement the long awaited Chicago Plan Revisited (available at IMF website) with a digital currency of some sort…
In other words, both debt payments and income taxes could be eliminated, which would free up more money to pay for the energy component of MOAR consumption…
Which of course would just stomp the gas pedal on a vehicle already going down the Hubert curve towards a pretty big cliff… But man, its going to feel like a Golden Age for a short while…
The problem regardless is that you have 8+ billion eaters on the planet. Any solution will have a negative impact on the many. Governments now this, which is why they continue to borrow money at insane levels to keep the system from collapsing.
Probably true. Countries see the insanely high debt level of Japan’s government and imagine that their government can do that also.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-country
Of course, if GDP goes to close to zero, any amount of debt becomes a problem.
Interest alone on the US debt is at $1 trillion per year and it grows if interest rates go up or debt levels increase. “Things will continue until they can’t”.
If they come to a point where the debt cannot be paid back and the interest rates were less than nominal inflation, is there a problem with that solution?
Dennis L.
(1) Your description of politicians creating new narratives is spot on. They do this when they encounter (unsolvable) problems they do not want to tell to their voters.
(2) Is there a (stacked) graph (or can you create one) which shows for which purposes US debt was incurred? Detailing what you call primary deficit in Fig 7? The Covid spike is obvious
(3) Do you think that Musk and Trump stopped supporting Ukraine (and aligning with Putin) because the US cannot afford it anymore? Musk mentioned in an Oval office media event that interest payments have reached the size of defense spending. I have it my latest post:
US shale oil seems to cover up peaking crude oil production in the rest
of the world since 2018
4 Mar 2024
https://crudeoilpeak.info/us-shale-oil-seems-to-cover-up-peaking-crude-oil-production-in-the-rest-of-the-world-since-2018
Social Security began in 1935, to help pull the economy out of the Great Depression. It has at least been somewhat funding, but it is a pay as you go program. Today’s contributions go to today’s retirees, with somewhat of a short fall. This will get worse with more retirees and workers with inadequate wages.
Medicare and Medicaid were started in 1965, as part of Lyndon Joynson’s Great Society Plan. (This was also at the time of the Vietnam War.) Neither of these is funded adequately. Their existence is part of what has allowed healthcare costs to rise so much.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-admin/upload.php?item=52177
I am not sure I could figure out all of the layers of debt. Every year, more programs seem to be added, but the funding is not. There are a whole lot of “mandatory programs” that may not have any real funding. Food stamps for the poor, for example.
in that sense, Trump is right of course (hate saying that)
but of course his intentions are to impoversish the majority still further, while deliver tax cuts for the ultra wealthy.
this will bring social chaos, vast inequality always does.
hardly anyone grasps the truth, so in a fully armed country everyone will blame everyone else—so state secessions and violence will become inevitable.
I don’t think Trump knows what he is doing. I think he is just pulling it out of his hind end as he is going along.
Ya think??? He says tariffs one and no tariffs the next… he doesn’t understand the economics…. Tomorrow they will announce maybe tariffs lite…. And then not have any
The self-organizing system doesn’t depend on particular individuals knowing what they are doing.
If we do not have enough diesel and jet fuel for today’s level of long-distance international trade, reciprocal tariffs are good way of getting international trade down, without stopping it completely. Trump cannot set tariffs for other countries, but there is a good chance that they will reciprocate.
My impression is that embargoes as used by Biden are not a very good solution to the problem of inadequate energy resources. But maybe embargoes, in their own way, also work to reduce long distance international trade.
If he doesn’t know what he is doing, he is pretty damn lucky. Look at the wives, the children. That is not luck.
Dennis L.
you added the wrong letter to ‘luck’
its wives who take care of that—they just pretend otherwise
You do realize that Trump inherited a lot of money from his father. He is only where he is because of his daddy.
this will bring social chaos, vast inequality always does.
Simplistic and false. Inequality doesn’t bring chaos, lack of basic necessities at the bottom of the economic scale does. It doesn’t matter if someone has 10 Ferraris if I have plenty to eat and a nice warm home and can go on holidays every year.
/////Inequality doesn’t bring chaos, lack of basic necessities at the bottom of the economic scale does. ///
er,
i’m happy to be corrected here—but i would have thought that ”inequality” and being ”bottom of the economic scale” were one and the same thing?
i’m happy to be corrected here—but i would have thought that ”inequality” and being ”bottom of the economic scale” were one and the same thing?
“Inequality doesn’t bring chaos, lack of basic necessities at the bottom of the economic scale does. ”
What didnt you understand in this sentence? If the bottom of the economic scale is still living comfortably then society will be stable, no matter how unequal it is. Get it now?
Not necessarily. I can see why you’d think that, but apparently there’s a recurring tendency for bloody revolutions to be driven by an overproduction of elites who cannot all be kept in the manner to which they have grown accustomed, rather than by hunger and so forth: “Turchin outlines the cyclical nature of ‘elite overproduction’ and its role in political disintegration, emphasizing the importance of economic inequality and elite struggles for control.”
https://peterturchin.com/press/peter-turchin-the-decline-of-nations-how-elite-surplus-and-inequality-lead-to-societal-upheaval/
I can see why you’d think it would be otherwise though.
You’d think it would be the poor who drove revolutions, but apparently, it’s more the case that these things are kicked off by elites who’re losing their grip and sliding down the slippery slope to a lower status.
It’s a bit disappointing really. As Bakunin said: “To my utter despair I have discovered, and discover every day anew, that there is in the masses no revolutionary idea or hope or passion.”
Not necessarily. I can see why you’d think that, but apparently there’s a recurring tendency for bloody revolutions to be driven by an overproduction of elites
What happens is a decreasing amount of stuff (shrinking economy) results in too many elites for the size of the new economy if production of elites does not also shrink.
“What happens is a decreasing amount of stuff (shrinking economy) results in too many elites for the size of the new economy if production of elites does not also shrink.”
Yes, that sounds like one situation that could result in overproduction of elites, although I suppose it could also happen due to other reasons than a shrinking economy. For example, rising inequality due to other political, economic and social factors could result in one set of elites having so much wealth that they could simply outcompete/price aspiring/new generations of elites out of the market for everything.
The amount of material wealth in society could even be increasing, but if there are issues with how it is distributed by, say, the elites having insane amounts of money and the wannabe elites having far less, then the overproduction of elites could still cause problems.
In any case, once the situation arises, for whatever reason, that there are more wannabe elites than there are seats at the elite table, then it seems like the wannabe elites have a tendency to go on a bloodthirsty rampage.
I agree though that we’re headed into a world of increasing scarcity due to overconsumption and depletion etc. so it seems increasingly likely for wannabe elites to get ‘antsy’.
You will not get me arguing that the situation isn’t grave.
We mightn’t even need, for example, to reach a point wherein the wannabe elites are literally starving etc. for the conditions to be set for a bloody revolution. Instead, we might find that the wannabe elites just need to feel ‘disappointed’ that they cannot achieve the same level of material comfort and social status as their parents.
Then the stage is set for a bloody revolution to clear away a large chunk of wannabe elites and others, to be followed by a new set of elites taking the reins, to be followed by the cycle of elite overproduction recommencing.
Perhaps there are steps that can be taken to reduce the chances of this happening by, say, making the existing elites pay more tax to distribute the wealth more equally and to reduce their competitive advantage? But elites don’t like to share do they, so what could we do to make that happen? Hmmm, I know, how about a bloody revolution?
Yes, that sounds like one situation that could result in overproduction of elites
It is what happens and all that ever happens. It’s not just one situation.
‘History’ is just a bunch of drivel. All that matters is energy.
History need to be interpreted correctly.
the use of energy through history is what put you here
This is nonsense.
1. The wanna-be elites do not want to overthrow the system. They continue to use colleges to get credentials to get good jobs, use normal banking services and take authorities seriously especially if they have a phd. They have huge stake in the system because they have invested time and money move up the status ladder in it.
2. The people who could “overthrow” societies, and that’s not the wanna-be elites, are monitored by intelligence constantly. Revolution is impossible if the ruling class can become aware of your plans before you execute them .
3. This plays into Jewish fable David and Goliath where they claim a small and weaker opponent can overcome a stronger one with “strategy”.
Furthermore, there is no low-cost technology that would allow a small group of people to overwhelm the various levels of U.S. government.
“1. The wanna-be elites do not want to overthrow the system. ”
Yeah, well, it wouldn’t be the first time.
” 2. The people who could “overthrow” societies, and that’s not the wanna-be elites, are monitored by intelligence constantly.”
We are going to have to disagree re the ‘wanna-be elites’ not having revolutionary potential. They are the class who seem to have the most frustrated expectations, having been bred and raised for ‘big things’ only to find that those things are just not going to happen. As for the monitoring, yes, that would make it difficult. And as the technology and techniques for control improve, perhaps eventually impossible. I am not sure the technology and control is that advanced yet as to be total, but if it is, then yes, there’s obviously no chance of revolution.
“3. This plays into Jewish fable David and Goliath. . .”
Not really. You don’t need the majority of society to be revolutionaries for there to be a successful revolution.
It’s not just revolution, but also elite power struggle leading to blood-soaked chaos once you have too many elites for them all to get what they think they deserve etc.
Today, you have a large number of people who are simply priced out of the market for housing – they cannot compete for a house, or it is extremely hard unless one is already minted. Those people might even have (had) good jobs, and education etc., but they are just not going to get the trappings of the petty bourgeoise owing to being squeezed by the higher capital owning class, plus being outmoded by technology, and cheaper labour, as well as any other impacts that are occurring due to limits of the finite world.
This wouldn’t be the first time, for example, that the middle class has become inflamed and turned to fascism – which seems to be on the uptick.
On the flipside, there are characters like Lenin, a cultured fellow, who probably became a revolutionary along with many others like him because they were ‘stymied’ by Tsarist Russia. It’s not a big mystery or anything. People want stuff. If some people take more than their fair share, then people are more likely to get cranky enough to seize what they think is their due.
It seems pretty obvious really.
Can you guess which member of the upper middle class wrote this?
“The [petty bourgeoise] sink[s] gradually into the proletariat, partly because their diminutive capital does not suffice for the scale on which Modern Industry is carried on, and is swamped in the competition with the large capitalists, partly because their specialized skill is rendered worthless by new methods of production.”
Bonus points for guessing the revolution he helped inspire, which happened despite him and his movement starting as a minority and being monitored by the police.
Norman, I am glad to see you are are understanding the greatness of our celestial leader. If one does not nip the weeds in the bud it only gets worst.
What do you think will happen when the U.S. empire inevitably collapses? Kumbaya?
Are you really going to be breaking bread with inner city brown people?
No, it is going to be chaos. No one will care whether you voted for or why there is a sudden reduction in government services and living standards. If you are white, you will retreat into a group with other white people. There will be none of the cooperation and good will you think exists between different groups in America.
“vast inequality” inequality is diversity. People who earn different amounts of money, have different amounts of talent, desirable personality traits, etc.
You can’t claim to embrace differences as a liberal but want everyone to be exactly the same.
What do you think will happen when the U.S. empire inevitably collapses? Kumbaya?
Slaughter.
the don already ignores court rulings
the don has dismissed his generals and appointed an obedient one as chief of staff
He has bought the supreme court, and sold the office of president to the highest bidder.
now——-
fast forward a year or less—to when the senate finally wakes up to the stark reality that they’ve installed a full on dictator as potus.
what happens when the don orders his lapdog top general to take a squad of the military into the senate….and shut it down?
before everyone starts yelling ”the constitution”—-tell me what is there to stop him?
the don already ignores court rulings
So did Andrew Jackson. Trump should ignore any ruling against him from corrupt and politicised judges.
the don has dismissed his generals and appointed an obedient one as chief of staff
Completely normal to appoint a general he prefers. The Obama administration fired 9 generals.
He has bought the supreme court, and sold the office of president to the highest bidder.
What does this even mean? I assume you are just regurgitating what your television told you to think.
Removing the cap on income would resolve this.
“The Social Security income cap, also known as the contribution and benefit base, is the maximum amount of earnings subject to Social Security tax in a given year. The 2025 Social Security income cap is $176,100”
So elmo muskrat makes billions but pays no SSA tax on anything over 176k.
The economy is not about dollars.
“The economy is not about dollars.”
No, but a civil society is about fairness… and a realization that on a very fundamental level we are all in this together, so cutting off your nose to spite your face is kinda nonsensical and counterproductive.
” a civil society is about fairness… and a realization that on a very fundamental level we are all in this together,”
Your fantasy is that we are all in this together. The reality life is largely about competition. We all can’t have the good life, be smart or the fittest, or get the good mates. Civil societies try to hide or downplay this but until the industrial revolution only the very wealthy could pretend we were all in this together. Life in preindustrial civilizations was still tough.
“The Social Security income cap, also known as the contribution and benefit base, is the maximum amount of earnings subject to Social Security tax in a given year. The 2025 Social Security income cap is $176,100”
So Elmo Muskrat makes billions, but pays no SSA tax on anything over $176k. If this cap was removed SSA would be totally solvent.
Of course he is also in charge of the so called “efficiency” changes, which are self serving.
One thing that is strange is that the energy resources used by a millionaire or billionaire are nowhere near proportional to their high incomes. They can eat three (or perhaps four) meals a day. Their vehicles can use only a few gallons of gasoline per day. If they go flying off to conferences, this uses more energy, but a lot of what they are using their money for is services that use little energy. They also own a lot of shares of stock and investments of various kinds.
Taxing the wealthy people more won’t necessarily free up a lot of resources. Some people might worry that it would be counter-productive for jobs, because the investments that some of these very wealthy people make provide jobs for other people.
If all we need is more money (rather than more resources), we could just print the money. It is kind of a strange situation.
Yes maybe the wealthy don’t use very much energy but I doubt you are correct in that assessment. Also yes it’s not the wealthy fault but they will be scapegoats worse than Jews in nazi germany when the rich fail
“You can print all the money or create all the credit you want, but try stuffing paper bills down your gas tank and see how far you go.”?
Rich people consume more. I’ve seen affluent communities that flare gas lights 24/7 365days, they heat pools in winter, they pack their garages with classic gas guzzlers that they load on power lifts, they jet set around the world to resorts that should not exist. They spend incredible amounts on products to keep up with the Jones, they consume all types of cosmetic surgeries and enhancements. They knock down perfectly good houses to build newer bigger ones, they clear lands and truck in massive amounts of masonry stones. They purchase all the latest techno gadgets. All requiring more energy consumption. It always amazes me how mankind pisses away such a precious finite resource that their offspring may need one day for their own existence.
it’s called ”the free market”
we created it ourselves, even though it doesnt seem that way
I’m not trying to argue the justification for or against it ; I am merely stating economic facts that I’m really surprised how Trump and Musk are falling into a big trap. The economy was already slowing before Covid once you start firing millions of workers you will own the crash and there will be no one to protect you. You can’t turn it around overnight. Trumpy is toast and he doesn’t even know! Not his fault but he will get all the blame.
as with any other deal —trump sees the potus like any other business opportunity….. make as much money as fast as possible and get out before things collapse…then let somebody else pick up the pieces and take the loss.
he bought the supreme court and sold the presidency.
if the whole thing turns into a dictatorship, so much the better.
The democratic psychosis has still to be removed.
Norman, you have such marvelous insight into Donald Trump’s psychology!
How DO you do it?
the measles outbreak in texas is growing tim
you must feel truly vindicated in your stance against vaxxing
the measles outbreak in texas is growing tim
you must feel truly vindicated in your stance against vaxxing
Vaccinate against measles? There is no need, it’s a normal part of growing up. I had it, everyone had it.
Norman, nice try!
I feel absolutely vindicated, thank you. All injections containing foreign proteins and poisons labelled “adjuvants” are dangerous. An the more you jab the better your chance of becoming permanently injured.
The media create those scary media stories especially for people like you. All over the world, mindless normies see the same emotionally-charged and fact-free stories, and react in the same boringly predictable way, just as Catholics the world over all sing the same hymns from the same hymn book.
This:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd50cff48-b702-4bff-94ae-b4b6fe4fdc81_625x736.png
Surely taxing the wealthy might help level the playing field though, thus giving more elite wannabes and others easier access to things like education, good paying jobs, home ownership?
It’s true that the elites can only eat X many times a day, but the cap on the number of homes they can buy doesn’t seem so limited.
Increasing taxes on the super-rich seems to be one way to limit their ability to outbid/outcompete poorer players for limited goods and services, such as homes.
Home ownership seems like a key thing to being a happy player in society, with the minimum number of homes required being one.
If one part of society has an overwhelming advantage in money, which it seems is an asset that can keep on spooling up exponentially to insane levels, then mightn’t a less wealthy part of society find themselves in a situation one day wherein they simply cannot compete with the elite moneyed class for services like education and the well-paying jobs that may come with that, or in the market for housing to get that one home that they need to be satisfied?
Because something like that seems to be going on, and inequality seems to be increasingly worse in western countries, bringing with it increasing risk of bloody revolution.
A situation which is no doubt made worse by approaching/exceeding limits of the finite world but is perhaps one which perhaps can be de-risked to some extent by increasing taxes on the uber rich and decreasing income taxes on the less rich?
It also seems to me that increasing taxes on the uber rich doesn’t necessarily mean that investment won’t happen in job creating industries. Perhaps steps could be taken to encourage investment in, say, superannuation funds that could make the investments?
Ultimately though, this is all just squirming on the hook as we head into the maw of collapse, but maybe it’s possible to make more people feel a bit better as the jaws close on them.
It is tempting to think that taxing the very rich more would solve our problems, but I am doubtful it does.
For one thing, much of the wealth of the very rich comes from ownership of shares of stock, pieces of property, farms, and businesses. Very often, they are wealthy in terms of stock prices, or land prices, or supposed business value, but this ownership is very illiquid. They may or may not have very much in cash flow. Trying to tax the wealthy is a difficult subject. Very wealthy people will move to another country or state, if the local area suggests taxing their wealth. Are you asking a farmer to sell part of his farm, to pay these taxes? Or a business owner to take out a loan, because “on paper” he appears wealthy?
Putting the tax on high wages alone doesn’t really get very far. The very rich people have complex compensation plans, with the express purpose of staying away from taxes. Also, the excess wealth seems to come more from the ownership of businesses and from capital gains. It is hard to get at these.
When high taxes on incomes were tried in the past, it was my impression that the outcome was not very good. If nothing else, those with high incomes move to a country with lower tax rates.
Rich people who make their money from working are probably well placed to leave a given jurisdiction for a lower taxed jurisdiction; however, if we are not talking so much about taxing people who earn high wages as much as we are talking about taxing people who own, say, hundreds of millions or billions of dollars in assets within a given country – i.e. the real owners of the wealth and the country – then it seems like they are less likely to be able to just up and leave as the assets they own (houses, factories, etc.) are not really mobile.
I agree with you though that there are lots of loopholes to close. The super rich also seem unlikely to just go along with a plan to tax them more.
So, it wouldn’t be easy, but as a general principle, it seems like the only way to really protect the poor from the rich is through taxation.
That said, I don’t think raising taxes on the super-rich will solve everything, especially if we are moving from a world of relative abundance to a world of relative scarcity (and the rest of the consequences of over-consumption), but mightn’t it reduce the pain?
At least for some, for a bit, and if it doesn’t work at all, well. . .
I find myself wondering about the extent to which the coming collapse will be due to, say, physical factors such as resource depletion as it is to other factors such as, say, failing to distribute the spoils of the project of industrial civilization equitably.
But it’s not just this particular issue, I also wonder how much of the dire situation in any given country is due to these kind of ‘political’ decisions vs. the extent to which the situation is due to the finite nature of the planet within which those countries are embedded?
I accept though that civ appears to be doomed no matter what, barring an act of God, which do seem to happen from time to time.
Love your blog.
When I say doomed, I mean doomed due to physical factors alone stemming from the consequences of too many humans consuming too much stuff.
Even if we agreed to change the rules that we all play by here or there, nature would still have its own set of rules which don’t seem to have a lot of slop in them.
Perhaps we’re not free of our own nature either, so unable to change the greed and so forth that seems to help drive on the overconsumption etc.
Thanks for answering before. That was kind of you.
“The Amish generally do not pay Social Security taxes or receive benefits because they view Social Security as a form of insurance, which conflicts with their religious beliefs. They can apply for an exemption by filing IRS Form 4029, which waives both Social Security and Medicare taxes for self-employed Amish individuals2. However, Amish individuals who work for non-Amish employers are required to pay Social Security taxes.”
Per Copilot.
Families are very useful, familial bonds are very strong, parents invest in their children while they can, the debt is paid back to the parental generation as they age.
Dennis L.
I can add a little bit to what I wrote earlier.
I do think that Musk and Trump stopped supporting Ukraine because the US cannot afford it any more.
With respect to the build-up of US debt, I think it is instructive to look at Figure 7. This is the chart that shows additions to debt, for both
a. The difference between expenditures and outgo (including all of these mandatory programs)
b. Payments for interest on debt.
A big takeaway for me is that interest on debt is a big part of this. Another thing is that there is some possibility of takedown in the overall debt level when oil prices are very low. Back in the late 1990s and early 2000’s, oil prices were extremely low. At that time, income exceeded outgo.
One thing that influences the result is the difference between Social Security income and disbursements. While the system is meant to be pay as out, in the years 1997 to 2007, the system collected more funds than were needed in those particular years. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/assets.html
If I remember correctly, the US government spent what came in, for whatever needs were on hand at the time. It credited the Social Security Trust Fund with Debt that is not held by the public, so it is not included in the usual sums of government debt. Of course, when the time comes to pay social security benefits, this funding will be needed. Outgo now exceeds income. Social Security benefits have been shooting up, with inflation and more retirees.
You are partially right but what happens when you lay off millions of workers? And this starts a cascade downward. Did debt go down in 2008-2010? No it goes drastically up. The layoffs are just like liberals thinking that they can spend their way out with green jobs. There is no way out…
The best way to reduce consumption is to create a lot more poverty. Of course that only works until civil order starts to unravel.
Hence the need to also reduce population. But I suspect they will never again try directly the forced shot.
Liberals think that the government can borrow an infinite amount of money or print an infinite amount of money. They concede that government debt can be like household debt if the debt is in a currency they cannot control.
What this Keynesian and MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) point of view overlooks is the role of the bond market. If bondholders refuse to fund new government debt for a particular government , that government becomes constrained by revenue. Money printing will not create new sources of revenue for that government that cannot borrow money.
Gail didn’t talk about this but it looks like the high interest rates are causing problems for the U.S. government. The reason I think this is true is because there are claims that the interest on the U.S. debt is becoming a burden or difficult to pay. Perhaps Trump’s role is to do the one thing that no dared to do and that is reduce spending. If he reduces spending, the hope is that inflation will go down and eventually the the interest on U.S. debt. I don’t know if this will be achieved by a successful block at raising the debt ceiling or by a debt default or even a prolonged government shutdown but the big cuts in government spending sounds like austerity. Austerity sounds a lot like resource rationing and resource rationing is one of the solutions to fossil fuel depletion. All roads seem to lead to the finite nature of this world.
“Perhaps Trump’s role is to do the one thing that no dared to do and that is reduce spending.”
I think that is right. And reducing spending will push the economy toward austerity, saving fuel. I don’t know how that actually will play out. I am afraid a change is very close at hand. It could come from a long shutdown, or indirectly from DOGE cuts. We don’t know exactly. But I am not the only one worried about interest payments being way too high, and the handwriting on the wall being that interest payments are likely to be even higher in the future.
The US has given funding to a whole lot of efforts that it cannot really afford. Something has to start scaling back, soon.
“Of course, when the time comes to pay social security benefits, this funding will be needed.”
What if there are not as many “real” people eligible as are on the rolls?
There are a whole lot of people becoming eligible. And the funding from young people is on the lowish side because their wages are so low.
There is also the issue of the unmarketable US debt that funds social security, thanks to overpayment in some years, which has already been spent on other things, like wars. If social security is trying to provide benefits, it seems like ever-more marketable debt would be needed to fund it.
all those 150yr olds are bound to be taxpayers
“all those 150yr olds are bound to be taxpayers”
Facts matter:
https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/us-news/personal-finance/2025/03/06/67c9b018ca4741015d8b45e9.html
all those 150yr olds are bound to be voting Democrat
well i’m over halfway there
“politicians creating new narratives “?
“31:28 the name of the political movement that he leads make America great again
31:33 there’s no room in that for India for Europe for anybody else unless you are
31:39 helping make America great again this isn’t about making India great this
31:44 isn’t about making Europe great you exist only to facilitate America being
31:50 made great again that’s a reality but the difference this time is that Trump
31:57 is trying to break three Break Free of a fundamentally flawed Paradigm and that
32:02 is the military-industrial complex Paradigm that Dwight de Eisenhower
32:08 warned us about the post World War II uh situation where in order to keep our economy going so we don’t drift back
32:14 into the Great Depression again study historical timelines and understand that in the mid 1930s America was a nation in
32:21 economic and social collapse it took the world war to bring us out of it because we were able to create Industries
32:28 mobilize the industrial base and make the arsenal of democracy but then the
32:34 war ended and what do you do with the arsenal of democracy if you’re deconstructed too fast we go back into
32:39 the same fundamental flawed economic principles that brought to depression so we have to artificially
32:46 boost the American economy by keeping a war footing in a non-war environment
32:51 that’s what the Cold War was all about creating the the the perception of constant conflict and sometimes the real
32:57 reality of conflict to generate war-based manufacturing . . .
that’s what he’s trying to do is stop this Ponzi scheme this existential Ponzi scheme from turning
35:58 into a nuclear conflict but to do that you have to deconstruct how America
36:03 interfaces with the world”?
Ritter sees all the misery the US have made across the globe but still manages to call Europe and other places fundamentally flawed – I beg his pardon!
Further, words don’t mean a thing; I will believe the US as a peace broker when I see it.
“Scott Ritter reposted
MK71
@MK71GA
For a brief shining moment it seemed like
@DonaldTrump
was serious about the peace, then this. Who in their right mind would accept the agreement as offered by Rubio on behalf of Ukraine? Not even a hint of acknowledgement of the reality on the ground. Sheer incompetence of the US negotiating team or a deliberate act on their part to compel Russia to reject the agreement?
10:51 PM · Mar 11, 2025”?
https://x.com/MK71GA/status/1899593966535770511
Scott Ritter
@RealScottRitter
·
Mar 11
Trump had a chance to be the peacemaker he wanted to be.
He could have completed the strategic pivot away from Ukraine.
Instead he will be responsible for extending the violence.
He could have pressured Israel on Gaza.
Instead the Houthi have reengaged, opening the door for a disastrous regional conflict with Iran.
We could have had peace.
We are headed to war.”?
https://x.com/RealScottRitter/status/1899569155919282505
Ritter is a russian troll… Putin is trying to reconstitute the soviet empire… and oh, BTW, FFS, Ukraine did not attack Russia.
Not all of us would agree.
+1 . Gail
Who ‘wants peace’?
“2019 RAND Paper . . .
As far back as 2019, US Army-commissioned studies examined different means to provoke and antagonize Russia who they acknowledged sought to avoid conflict. “
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqVPM0KSUpo&t=5s
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
and oh, BTW, FFS, Ukraine did not attack Russia.
It did attack Russians which is viewed by Russia as an attack on Russia, similar to how America views an attack on Americans.
The miracle of life trashed because of money, international boundaries and irrational religion. https://666ismoney.com/RareEarth.html
on the face of it—–
life would appear to eventually trash itself.
which probably explains the absence of aliens.
maybe that is the ultimate point of it all—-if there is one.
maybe humankind is, at this moment in time, living through the supernova of its own existence.
Humans lived through ice ages. I don’t expect that whatever bottleneck the economy goes through will end all life. Self-organizing ecosystems can be expected to fix themselves quite well.
The number of humans on earth may need to be lower than it is currently. But that is the way it goes.
Incredible post. I read a number of folks in the energy space and feel like you are the only one who gets the full and true picture. In another post you noted that the role of the Federal Reserve seems to be, effectively, to keep the world energy market running. I may be butchering what you said, but it resonated so strongly. Please keep up the amazing work, always a treat to see your posts hit my inbox!
I’m glad you liked my post. I had a hard time figuring out how I could put together the many pieces, without going way over the top in word count, and making the post too hard to understand.
Thanks a lot for the new blog post.
„The last thing we can expect a politician to tell his constituents is, “We have a shortage problem here. There are more resources available, but they are too expensive to extract and ship to provide affordable food, electricity, and housing.”“
Normal people are not dumb.
At some point they see it coming — if not already.
You cannot solve a problem if you do not talk about it, if you do not define it.
Thus you cannot in some ‘optimal’ way adapt if this issue is hidden — intentionally by politicians and/or their cronies.
Many people predict doom, even ‘mad max’ scenarios.
But on balance — you don’t really know what might happen, if you have not really seen or experienced it.
How did people behave after complete destruction after WW2?
How do people live on a small energy footprint forced by sanctions?
One is for sure certain useless leaders have to lose the most and a lot of societal changes might be required.
Endless government spending to try to keep some ‘fake growth’ will not work.
Less waste of money (resources) by governments (e.g. reduced military spending) is the first action to be taken, I think.
The real challenge is to avoid totalitarian systems — where some politicians/elites try to decide who has to starve instead of them.
Hopefully free flow of information will be helpful to counter such attempts.
/////How did people behave after complete destruction after WW2?/////
lots of people think in those ww2 terms—
this is a classic mistake—post ww2 the usa was awash with cheap coal and oil—-
the owners of the coal and oil wanted to turn it into cash as fast as possible—hence marshall aid program.
had it not been for cheap energy, germany would still be a pile of rubble.
with cheap surplus coal and oil you can rebuild anything.
without it, you can’t, it costs too much in real terms.
You are right, Norman. We are in much worse shape today.
“… hence marshall aid program.”
When did this arrive in East Germany?
“had it not been for cheap energy, germany would still be a pile of rubble.”
A lot of rubble was cleared manually — little oil, little coal — it took quite some time.
But of course I see your point.
(Hence it is most important not to create (again) widespread destruction throughout Europe — but it seems certain decision makers in Europe do not care.)
you can clear rubble manually—
you can’t rebuild cities at scale manually
Alexandria?
Dennis L.
alexandria wasnt a modern city
a modern city has a complex infrasructure—alexandria didnt have that
Presumably it was modern when Alexander founded it in 331 BC.
The Germans have just elected a chancellor, who is supporting a direct confrontation of Germany and Russia, because “there is enough peace at the courtyard” (a game with words, the German expression for courtyard is peaceyard). They also reelected the responsible for the desastrous pandemy management, including the long lockdowns, that increased public debt enourmously.
How do you come to the idea, that people are “not dumb”?
“The Germans …
They also reelected the responsible for the desastrous pandemy management, including the long lockdowns, that increased public debt enourmously.”
How do you define ‘The Germans’?
Is this a homogeneous mass?
I can see a lot of ‘normal people’ who did not elect the ‘lockdowners’ again — there were several options (*).
For the rest I do not care anymore.
(*)
Example Thuringia:
lockdown parties and friends:
(let’s call this coalition ‘The Vaxxers’;)
49.59%
Voter turnout: 80,7%
Thus about 40% of the voters were fine with SPD/Greens/CDU/FDP/Leftists.
These are ‘the Germans’?
I don’t think so.
the wages of all of us depends on a single factor:
The conversion of one energy form into another.
A successful economic system requires that conversion process to produce surpluses. The higher the surplus, the more affluent we all are. (ie–higher and higher productivity/wages)
That’s where the “American Dream” originated. It started with the ‘surplus’ after ww2, and lasted until economic system ran into deficit, (around 1970 …as in fig 3 above)–that debt ran on for about 50 years, which is where we are now, as I forecast mid 2020s.
it was the denial of reality.
Fossil fuel prices cannot rise because there is now no effective surplus in the system to pay for that price rise.
to quote from above: ///////The incredibly low interest rates have encouraged all kinds of investment in projects that make people happy, but that do not truly make more goods and services, and more taxable income./////
Which sums up the situation very neatly.
Trump et al cannot grasp this—hence “MAGA”.—there can be no “MAGA’—the lack of surplus means steepening decline…..into commercial oblivion. (that applies world wide btw)
The constant rise of debt/fuel deficit is exactly like taking out ever increasing bank loans, after you’ve lost your job, in order to convince yourself you still have actual income.
It also explains the rise of fascism:
Democracy is the child of plenty.
Scarcity makes it an orphan and it starves to death. (NP)
Good summary. The era of contraction is upon us, as the era of cheap energy and other resources has ended, and there are all sorts of side effects. Reality must be faced, regardless of how unpleasant it may be, and lies like “Make America Great Again” simply make the final outcome that much worse.
I’m simply amazed at how few people have grasped the basics of our predicament.
Politically, it will be very bumpy, and that translates to authoritarian regimes and desperate attempts at maintaining control. It won’t be much fun for most of us.
Authoritarian regimes take a lot less energy to support than ones with representatives flying in from a distance. History shows a lot of authoritarian regimes. I consider a democracy to be something that goes with a lot of fossil fuels. We can’t expect this high-resource type of government to last.
The war machine is sustained by the men who have no perspectives, just going deeper into debts. Recruiting them is easy:
https://youtu.be/qRXvxcoeoeY?si=XFw9ZaOzFdWc0rnz
Now seniors are ready to kill or be killed:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/10/09/russias-army-recruits-are-increasingly-older-less-capable-men-vyorstka-a86622
The Moscow Times is a beacon of media accuracy. It is owned by a Siberian collective of metal workers and publishes from the very heartland of Russia. I think only Reuters, pre-USAID closure, and The Economist, are more truthful.
The regional distribution of resources lead to a shift in the balance of power. Most hydrocarbons are situated in Islamic states. With the US withdrawing from it’s role as world police, these see other chances, one example is the forming of the BRICS. War is a consequence to these shifts. Some gnostic esoterics may have an additional agenda.
Don’t forget that the US contributes about 30% of world production, which might end around 2030. This will lead to further shifts.
Yes, I agree.
In particular, I think that the so called Western democracies (that expecially in Europe are not any more) need a lot of narratives create by media, journalists and politicians to justify what they do with an immense amount of actions (that go under the umbrella of propaganda), while so called autocracies simply do what they decide.
I guess that this immense amount of propaganda on all media, need a lot of money and as consequence resources, than no propaganda at all or little of it…
that is why states must eventually secede
CA cannot be governed from DC, if the energy by which government is conducted does not exist.
Austria has a lot of iron ore in the Alps, which was produced with the help of Polish coal. I am not too much into it, but I believe this was possible, because Habsburg married a daughter to become the Polish queen. Perhaps Kulm know this aspect better?
The national state solved some problems in bringing resources together, that before only Hanse or Templer or very powerful people could achieve. The national state implied security, which made the existence of Knights unnecessary and reduced the costs of resource transport. The imperors were antagonists of the gentry in this development. This allowed people to say, I am on the side of the God-beloved imperor, if I don’t pay you an extra tax.
There are a lot of functions of a central system beyond the Fascist model.
This is a widespread perception, it is also said that democracy needs compromises and those are very hard in a situation of shortage.
I’d like to argue, that authoritarian regimes are very inefficient to solve problems, thinking of the UdSSR or the Ancient regime.
What is more, I’d also like to argue, that people are able to form communities and concentrate on priorities, even if they are unconvenient. I am an Atheist, but I believe people might find faith in religion in such situations, too.
Dmitry Orlov says that religions help bind a group together. A group that joins together only because they are into trying to survive against limited resources will likely not last. They need a common cause, and a common religion to keep them together. A little persecution by others outside the group helps bind the group together.
Good thing all the fascists took the beetlejuice or their ladies did.
hehe
America has large distances, that cannot be connected without an energetic dense medium. That is good for security and bad for unity.
Europe has large streams, the Danube and the Rhine, that connects the area, as much as a long coast line.
The American surplus was spent on the military. It “convinced” the resource states to sell on the “free markets”. In the moment, the oil markets switch from a buyer’s market into a seller’s market, this system is a waste of surplus.
We have come from the plant kingdom of the humid tropical areas, where there is the most energy from the sun and this energy is converted into carbon accumulated plants in the biggest quantities.
The plant hardiness zones explain why there is the West and the East:
https://www.wur.nl/nl/show/updated-and-downscaled-european-winter-hardiness-zone-maps-including-urban-heat-island-effects-for-urban-tree-species-selection.htm
This natural carbon accumulation process is the cheapest human life sustaining process. For food and for energy.
As we have spread our world into.less favourable areas, we suffer from energy poverty and hunger more and more.
The further we are into the drier and colder areas, the more we are isolated, as our populations are thinner.
But the existence in the colder areas with lower human populations is safer. Safer from other species which rely on the heat and humidity, too.
The controlled use of heat and humidity means the security for humans. But the human populations must remain low.
That is why no civilizations survived in the humid tropical areas. They were always destroyed by other species.
The humid subtropical areas, which means the areas with milder heat and humidity, created the highest density of the human population.
The clean fresh water is the key for drinking and hygiene.
We can not drink any water. Which is easily contaminated in the warm state, as we know that from the warm water installations that need to be regularly flushed to prevent bacteria proliferation.
What happened to our ancestral primates guts?
https://chatgpt.com/share/67c8d5c9-da8c-8012-8a43-7080214bfb50
So I am maintaining my sauerkraut supplies.
Overfunding Social Security (roughly 1997 to 2008) was one of those sources of surpluses.
https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/assets.html
The system operates on a pay as you go basis, but the amount collected was higher because of relatively few retirees in this period.
Norman,
You are completely missing the cubic mile of Pt.
Starship launches for the 8th time today with a bit of luck, here is to a good catch.
Dennis L.
dennis
wrong—the cubic mile of pt is missing me.
and on a more realistic note……
keith is more likely to get defrosted 500 years from now as superman, than your mythical pt will be of any use whatsoever
Give me a cubic mile on earth and my guess it would not take much effort to prove you incorrect.
Elon just caught >300 tons of booster, not sure about Spaceship.. He is landing Falcon’s regularly and in less than five minutes shooting/ It appears to weigh >4000 tons going up, this is the booster alone.
The Saturn V was incredible, wow, hell of an accomplishment. My bet is the cubic mile of Pt will be an exercise in putting enough exploring ships in space and having them go at it. Feed their results into supercomputers and each day will be a refinement.
We don’t solve today’s problems with yesterday’s solutions.
Dennis L.
dennis
as a retired dentist, your past level of intellect is not in doubt.
however—you are now slinging words together in a way that has no cohesive context.
The catch is irrelevant. Starship doesnt even have enough power to reach orbit empty. It’s useless and should be abandoned forthwith.
Taking the other side of a trade with Elon is a risky bet.
Dennis L.
Recent Tesla sales figures will be interesting next month, won’t they?
The wealth of Tesla may well be in the super computer not the cars.
Elon has gained incredible experience in production, the cars are pressed from AL, front and back, the process is highly automated. It is the knowledge which has value.
If my cubic mile of Pt is realized, batteries will be so yesterday.
Dennis L.