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I predict that the world economy will shrink in the next 10 years. I think that this is bound to happen because of energy and debt limits the world economy is hitting. There are a variety of other factors involved, as well.
In this post, I will try to describe the physics-based limits that the economy is facing, related to diminishing returns of many kinds. The problem we are facing has sometimes been called “limits to growth,” or “overshoot and collapse.” Such changes tend to lead to a loss of “complexity.” They are part of the way economies evolve. I would also like to share some ideas on the changes that are likely to occur over the coming decade.
[1] The world economy is a tightly integrated physics-based system, which is experiencing diminishing returns in far more areas than just oil supply.
When extraction of a mineral takes place, usually the easiest (and cheapest) portion of the mineral deposit is extracted first. After the most productive portion is removed, the cost of extraction gradually increases. This process is described as “diminishing returns.” Generally, more energy is required to extract lower quality ores.
The economy is now reaching diminishing returns in many ways. All kinds of resources are affected, including fossil fuels, uranium, fresh water, copper, lithium, titanium, and other minerals. Even farmland is affected because with higher population, more food is required from a similar amount of arable land. Additional-cost efforts such as irrigation can increase food supply from available arable land.
The basic problem is two-fold: rising population takes place while the easiest to extract resources are depleting. The result seems to be Limits to Growth, as modeled in the 1972 book, “The Limits to Growth.” Academic research shows that problems such as those modeled (sometimes referred to as “overshoot and collapse”) have been extremely common throughout history.
Precisely how this problem unfolds varies according to the specifics of each situation. Growing debt levels and increasing wage disparity are common symptoms before collapse. Governments become vulnerable to losses in war and to being overthrown from within. Epidemics tend to spread easily because high wage disparity leads to poor nutrition for many low-wage workers. Dr. Joseph Tainter, in his book, “The Collapse of Complex Societies,” describes the situation as the loss of complexity, as a society no longer has the ability to support some of the programs it previously was able to support.
At the same time the existing economy is failing, the beginnings of new economies can be expected to start. In some sense, economies “evolve,” just as plants and animals evolve. New economies will eventually replace existing ones. These changes are a necessary part of evolution, caused by the physics of the biosphere.
In physics terms, economies are dissipative structures, just as plants, animals, and hurricanes are dissipative structures. All dissipative structures require energy supplies of some type(s) to grow and remain away from a dead state. These structures do not “live” endlessly. Instead, they come to an end and are often replaced by new, slightly different, dissipative structures.
[2] Over the next 10 years, the general direction of the economy will be toward contraction, rather than growth.
There are many indications that the world economy is hitting a turning point because of rising population and diminishing returns with respect to resource extraction. For example:
[a] Debt levels are very high in the US and other countries. A rising debt level can temporarily be used to pull an economy forward without adequate energy supplies because it indirectly gives workers and businesses more spendable income. This income can be used to work around the lack of inexpensive energy products of the preferred types in a variety of different ways:
- It can allow consumers to afford a higher price for existing energy products, if the additional funds get back to customers as higher incomes or lower taxes.
- It can allow businesses to find more efficient ways of using resources, such as ramping up international trade or building more efficient vehicles.
- It can allow the development of new energy products, such as nuclear power generation and electricity from wind and solar.
What we are finding now is that these new approaches tend to encounter bottlenecks of their own. For example, oil supply is sufficiently constrained that the current level of international trade no longer seems to be feasible. Also, wind and solar don’t directly replace oil; electricity based on wind turbines and solar panels can lead to blackouts. Furthermore, diminishing returns with respect to oil and other resources tends to get worse over time, leading to a need for ever more workarounds.
If at some point, extraction becomes more constrained and workarounds fail to provide adequate relief, added debt will lead to inflation rather than to hoped-for economic growth. Higher inflation is the issue that many advanced economies have been struggling with recently. This is an indication that the world has hit limits to growth.
[b] Because of low oil prices, companies are deciding to cut back new investments in extracting oil from shale, and likely elsewhere.
Figure 1 shows that oil prices rise and fall; they don’t rise endlessly. They rose after US oil production hit its first limits in 1970, but this was worked around by ramping up oil production elsewhere. Prices rose in the 2003 to 2008 period and then fell temporarily due to recession. They returned to a higher level in 2011 to 2013, but they have settled at a lower level since then.
One factor in the price decline since 2013 has been the production of US shale oil, adding to world oil supply. Another factor has been growing wage disparity, as workers from rich countries have indirectly begun to compete with workers from low-wage countries for many types of jobs. Low-wage workers cannot afford cars, motorcycles, or long-distance vacations, and this affordability issue is holding down oil demand.
US oil production from shale is in danger of collapsing during the next few years because prices are low, making new investment unprofitable for many producers. In fact, current prices for oil from shale are lower than shown on Figure 1, partly because US prices are a little lower than Brent, and partly because prices have fallen further in 2025. The recent price available for US WTI oil is only about $62 per barrel.
[c] World per capita coal production has fallen since 2014. A recent problem has been low prices.
Transportation costs are a major factor in the delivered price of coal. The reduced production of coal is at least partly the result of coal mines near population centers getting mined out, and the high cost of transporting coal from more distant mines. Today’s coal prices do not seem to be high enough to accommodate the higher costs relating to diminishing returns.
[d] In theory, added debt could be used to prop up oil and coal prices, but debt levels are already very high.
Besides the problem with inflation, mentioned in point [a], there are problems with debt levels becoming unmanageably high.
Figure 3 shows US government debt as a ratio to GDP. If we look at the period since 2008, there was an especially large increase in debt at the time of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis and the 2020 Pandemic. The debt level has become so high that interest on the debt is likely to require tax revenue to rise endlessly. The underlying problem is needing to pay interest on the huge amount of outstanding debt.
Putting together [a], [b], [c], and [d], the world has a huge problem. As the world economy is currently organized, it is heavily dependent on both oil and coal. Oil is heavily used in agriculture and in transportation of all kinds (cars, trucks, trains, airplanes, and ships). Coal is especially used in steel and concrete making, and in metal refining. We don’t have direct replacements for coal and oil for these uses. Wind and solar are terribly deficient at their current state of development.
The laws of physics tell us that, given the world’s current infrastructure, a reduction in the availability of both crude oil and coal will lead to cutbacks in the production of many kinds of goods and services around the world. Thus, we should expect that GDP will contract, perhaps for a long period, until workarounds for our difficulties can be developed. Today’s wind turbines and solar panels cannot solve the problem for many reasons, one of which is that fact that production and transport of these devices is dependent upon coal and oil supplies.
Thus, without adequate oil and coal to meet the needs of the world’s growing population, the world economy is being forced to gradually contract.
[3] Overall living standards can be expected to fall rather than rise during the next decade.
A recent article in the Economist shows the following chart, based on an analysis by the United Nations:
Figure 4 shows the trend in the Human Development Index as level in 2023-24. I expect that the trend will gradually shift downward in 2024-2025 and beyond. Modern advances, such as the availability of potable water in homes and the availability of electricity 24 hours per day, will become increasingly less common.
The Economist article displaying Figure 4 notes that, so far, most of the drop in living standards has happened in the poorer countries of the world. These countries were hit harder by Covid restrictions than rich countries. For example, the drop in tourism had a greater impact on less advanced countries than on rich countries. Poor countries were also affected by a decline in export orders for luxury clothing.
Outside of poor countries, young people are already finding it difficult to find jobs that pay well. They are often burdened with debt relating to advanced education, making it difficult for them to have the same standard of living that their parents had. This trend is likely to start hitting older citizens, as well. Jobs will be available, but they won’t pay well. This problem will affect both young and old.
[4] Governments will be especially vulnerable to cutbacks.
History shows that when overshoot and collapse occur, governments are likely to experience severe difficulties, indirectly because many of their citizens are getting poorer. They require more government programs, but if wages tend to be low, the taxes they pay tend to be low, too.
Unfortunately, the kinds of cutbacks being undertaken by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) are very much necessary to get payments by the US government down to a level that can be supported by taxes. Regardless of how successful the current DOGE program is, I expect a huge reduction in the number of individuals on the payroll of the US government, perhaps by 50% to 75%, in the next 10 years. I also expect major cutbacks in the funding for outside organizations, such as universities and the many organizations DOGE has targeted.
At some point, the US government will need to reduce or eliminate many types of benefit payments made now. One approach might be to try to send many kinds of programs, such as job loss protection, Medicaid, and Medicare, back to the states to handle. Of course, the states would also have difficulty paying for these benefits without huge tax increases.
[5] Ten years from now, universities and colleges will enroll far fewer students.
I expect that university enrollments will fall by as much as 75% over the next 10 years, partly because government funding for universities is expected to fall. With less funding, tuition and fees are likely to be even higher than they are today. At the same time, jobs for university graduates that pay well will become less available. These considerations will lead fewer students to enroll in four-year programs. Shorter, more targeted education teaching specific skills are likely to become more popular.
There will still be some high-paying jobs available, requiring university degrees. One such area may be in finding answers to our energy and resource problems. Such research will likely be carried out by a smaller number of researchers than are active today because some current areas of research will be discarded as having too little potential benefit relative to the cost involved. Any approach considered will need to succeed with, at most, a tiny amount of government funding.
High paying jobs may also be available to a few students who plan to be the “wheeler-dealers” of the world. Some of these wheeler-dealer types will want to be the ones founding companies. Others will want to run for public office. They may be able to succeed, as well. They may want to study specialized tracks to advance their career goals. Or they may want to choose institutions where they can make contacts with people who can help them in pursuing their career goals.
For most young people, I expect that four-year university degrees will increasingly be viewed as a waste of time and money.
[6] In a shrinking economy, debt defaults will become an increasing problem.
A growing economy is very helpful in allowing financial institutions to prosper. With growth, future earnings of businesses tend to be higher than past earnings. These higher earnings make it possible repay both the borrowed amount and the required interest. With growth, there is little need to lay off employees. Thus, the employees have a reasonable chance to repay mortgage loans and car loans according to agreed-upon terms.
If an economy is shrinking, overhead becomes an ever-larger share of total revenues. This makes profits harder to achieve and may make it necessary to lay off employees. These laid-off employees are more likely to default on their outstanding loans. As debt defaults rise, interest rates charged by lenders tend to rise to compensate for the greater default risk. The higher interest rates make debt repayment for future borrowers even more difficult.
All these issues are likely to lead to financial crises, as debt defaults become more common.
[7] As debt defaults rise, banks tend to fail. This can lead to hyperinflation or deflation.
In a shrinking economy, the big question when banks fail is, “Will governments bail out the banks?”
If governments bail out the failing banks, there is a tendency toward inflation because the bailouts increase the money supply available to citizens, but not the quantity of goods available for purchase. If enough banks fail, the tendency may be toward hyperinflation–way too much money available to purchase very few goods and services.
If no government bailouts are available, the tendency is toward deflation. Without bailouts, the problem is that fewer banks are available to lend to citizens and businesses. As a result, fewer people can afford to buy homes and vehicles using debt, and fewer businesses can take out loans to purchase needed supplies. These changes lead to less demand for finished goods. This change in demand can indirectly be expected to affect commodity prices, as well, including oil prices. With low prices, some suppliers may go out of business, making any supply problem worse.
Regardless of whether bailouts are attempted or not, on average, citizens can be expected to be getting poorer and poorer as time goes on. This occurs because with a shrinking economy, fewer goods and services will be made. Unless the population shrinks at the same rate, individual citizens will find themselves getting poorer and poorer.
[8] Expect more tariffs and more conflicts among countries.
Without enough oil for transportation, the quantity of imported goods must be cut back. A tariff is a good way of doing this. If one country starts raising tariffs, the temptation is for other countries to raise tariffs in return. Thus, the overall level of tariffs can be expected to rise in future years.
Without enough goods and services for everyone to maintain their current standard of living, there will be a definite tendency for more conflict to occur. However, I doubt that the result will be World War III. For one thing, the West seems to have inadequate ammunition to fight a full-scale conventional war. For another, the nuclear bombs that are available are valuable for providing fuel for our nuclear power plants. It makes no sense to use them in war.
[9] Expect an increasing share of empty shelves, as time goes on.
High tech goods are especially likely to disappear from shelves. Replacement parts for automobiles may also be difficult to find, especially before an aftermarket of locally manufactured parts appears.
[10] Interest rates are likely to stay at their current level or increase to a higher level.
The high level of borrowing by governments and others makes lenders reluctant to lend unless the interest rates are high. It should also be noted that current interest rates are not high relative to historical standards. The world has been spoiled in recent years with artificially low interest rates, made possible by Quantitative Easing and other manipulations.
[11] Clearly, this list is not exhaustive.
The world economy has gone through two major disruptions in recent years, one in 2008, and one in 2020. Very unusual changes such as these are quite possible again.
We don’t know how soon new economies will begin to evolve. Eric Chaisson, a physicist who has researched this issue, says that there is a tendency for ever more complex, energy-dense systems to evolve over time. This would suggest that an even more advanced economy may be possible in the future.
Note: I am also publishing this post on Substack. At this point, it is still sort of an experiment. Comments sometimes don’t post well on WordPress. This will give readers a different option for viewing posts. Using Substack, my posts may reach a new audience as well.
Some of you may receive an email about my Substack post. I put in some email addresses back in January 2024 when I put up a post on Substack earlier. Subscriptions will continue to be free both places. This is a direct link to my new post. https://gailtverberg.substack.com/p/economic-contraction-coming-right
Apparently Martin Armstrong never read Gatsby or Francis MacComber.
Assassinations do work.
Once the man is dead, it is the end.
Survivors will cower down to the reality and say nothing. No one will avenge the one who was killed.
Martin Armstrong sometimes has good ideas, but his misses are as numerous as his hits.
From THE TIMES:
https://archive.ph/sNH3b
More conflict in 2024 ‘than any year since Second World War’[/url].
Researchers said there were 61 ‘state-based conflicts’ last year, including 11 full-blown wars, adding that civilians have been particularly at risk.
If stories of strife from around the globe fill you with a doom-laden sense that we live in particularly war-torn times, a new study has found that you are sadly correct.
Last year experienced more conflict than any other year since the end of the Second World War, with 61 instances of “state-based conflict” including 11 examples of full-blown wars — or those that claimed at least 1,000 “battle-related deaths” — across the world.
Civilians have been particularly at risk, not only as collateral damage but also as the victims of deliberately targeted attacks, researchers from Sweden found.
The four years which have seen the largest number of armed conflicts since 1946 have all come since 2019, with 56 in 2022, 57 in 2020, 59 in 2023 and 61 in 2024.
Almost 160,000 people globally died as a result of “organised violence’ last year, the fifth-highest toll since 1989.
The 11 conflicts that met the definition of a war include “territorial conflicts”, listed as Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, Israel’s bombardment of Gaza in response to Hamas attacks, Israeli action against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, conflict with Islamic State in Nigeria, and violence in Ethiopia. They also include “conflicts over government” within Burkina Faso, Myanmar, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan and Syria.
The data was collated by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) based at Uppsala University in Sweden.
“It is not that the world has become more peaceful,” Shawn Davies, a senior analyst at the UCDP, said. “We see more wars and more conflicts than previously, but with slightly fewer deaths than in the exceptionally bloody year of 2022. 2024 was the fourth-most violent year since the 1994 Rwandan genocide.”
Civilians have been at increased risk and are increasingly being targeted explicitly, the analysts found, with fears that combatants are finding it “increasingly difficult to distinguish between civilians and members of armed groups”.
“In the war in Gaza, it has only been possible to classify 2 per cent of the dead as members of a warring party, while 48 per cent have been recorded as civilians,” Therese Pettersson of the UCDP, said.
In 2024 there were 13,900 civilians who died in deliberately targeted attacks, 31 per cent more than in 2023. The Islamic State terror group accounted for the largest number of these at around 3,800, mainly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
“Over the past decade, we have seen an increase in the number of interstate conflicts, recording the highest number since 1987 in 2024,” said Davies. “Conflicts in which states actively support armed groups in other countries have also become more common during this period. This is a worrying trend that risks contributing to higher death rates.”
The statistics will be published in the Journal of Peace Research.
The deadliest year in terms of deaths since the Second World War was 1994 due to the Rwandan genocide, which pushed the death toll for that year up to 823,499. The bloodiest year this century so far has been 2022, when there were 308,614 deaths. The war in Ukraine is the deadliest conflict, with about 76,000 battle-related deaths last year, the research found.
=======================================
The world reached peak oil consumption in November 2018. Afterwards it used less, despite the fact that the world population is still growing. The have-nots get squeezed, then they get angry. Violence and wars become more likely. In the 1930s there was a world economic depression. Scapegoats were found. In the 1940s there were extermination camps in Europe. I’ll stop there.
Since that article, we have now the Iran-Israel war.
The potential for violence is unlimited. Elon Musk fell out with Trump recently. Bu he has access to Mars. Just what might he be preparing there? You will remember his three controversial salutes. Could he perhaps team up with Martians and others to attack the USA?
What does the Martians have to gain from the earth? They should have come 3000 years ago when there were no defense system
I can believe the view of more conflict in 2024 than in any other year since WWII. We are at the point where resources per capita are running short. I expect that 2025 will be even worse.
“A billion-dollar company went bankrupt nearly overnight when it was revealed that their AI software was simply a group of 700 Indians in a data center providing users with responses. Builder.ai was valued at $1.5 billion and attracted major investors such as Microsoft.”?
https://x.com/fredcloses/status/1932787040397242446
It happened again? No way
https://m.youtube.com/shorts/OZoDZYqil5E
Too funny…
LOL!
Telegram message from a female Iranian friend.
Hello dear (name withheld)
I was in Tehran until yesterday, but my workplace and university announced that they would be closed for a week.
I returned to Isfahan yesterday night.
Thank you for remembering me.
I hope that the oppressor will be destroyed in the whole world.
We will fight to the death…
I live in a big Italian city, I was in a supermarket yesterday and suddenly I heard three girls speaking in what it seemed to me Persian language (I watch some tv sat channels sometime).
I asked them what they were doing there and they told me that they are student.
I said that Italians feel for Iranians and we hope for the best.
They were breathtakingly beautiful and charming.
Expecially one with dark hair, smerald green eyes and dazzling white skin.
Italian women are losing that kind of class, a mix of cleverness, modernity and femmininity, without masculinity, which is something Italian girls are on the contrary trying to add lately, maybe persuaded by tv series models.
The only thing I can say is that luckily now I’m old too old court girls 🙂
yup
my most abiding memory of italy—-almost all the girls were exquisitely beautiful, at any age
The attacks seem almost irrational, unless a person understands the context.
Israel is surrounded by Arab countries. Some of Israeli politicians suffer from a siege mentality as a result. It’s a form of paranoia.
“1:54 Shamani had just finished doing an
1:55 interview where he said “We are ready to
1:58 accept 3.7%
2:00 enrichment that is enrichment that’s
2:02 only needed for production of nuclear
2:05 fuel we are ready to accept inspections
2:08 we are ready to accept limitations to
2:11 sign an agreement that says no nuclear
2:13 weapons they were ready to do everything
2:15 that was necessary to resolve this issue
2:18 and they were targeted by Israel . . . “?
Deception in negotiations seems to be a feature now. It is no longer possible for one side to believe what the other side is saying.
Martin Armstrong writes why it is never a good idea to assassinate a Nation’s leader. It usually ends very badly with the opposite results that were intended.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/iran/why-assassinations-fail-in-war/
“Col. MacGregor: Dear President Trump, Keep America First – Not Israel first, Not Ukraine First”
https://x.com/DougAMacgregor/status/1934083238630154312
Assassinations of leaders seems to turn out badly, according to Martin Armstrong:
And
Killing off the leader looks easy, but it can make things worse.
When I was younger and in college in New England and then later in residency in Albany, NY there was a large Jewish contingent of students, residents, and doctors. I had never given much thought to the Jewish population or its customs. The only thing I was aware of was that they wore these tiny little black hats on occasion until this one Jewish general surgery resident in Albany got practically every resident to “switch” his on call dates. which required spending the night in the dorm rooms for the residents in the hospital. He never reciprocated when it was his turn to fulfill his end of the switch. He was called Dr Enterprise, his last name started with an “E” and ended with “preis”, because of how enterprising he was in his deception and double crossing. This was my first real live experience with the Jewish mastery of deception. Then once I learned how the banking system and the FED were secretly established and their treachery to financially ( and through other means like war to enslave the world by pitting one race and country against the other), I started getting wise(r).
I am now a full-fledged antisemitic. Israel should never have been allowed to exist, starting from the Balfour Declaration of 1917 to the actual creation of the Jewish State of Israel in 1948. I understand that countries are conquered and created through acts of war, but never GIVEN to a group of people with such a record of destabilization and consumption of nations on the sly and reportedly have been banished from over a hundred countries. They wonder why they have been so persecuted over the ages. They should look into the mirror to find the answer.
IMO, they must never be allowed to have their own country. They should never be allowed to hold political office or positions in law or banking. See how they have already infiltrated and commandeered the US financial and political systems and have long since captured Britain. They hide behind the endless exaggerated mantra of “Remember the Holocaust,” even as they are the ultimate racists and have been the root cause of countless wars through financial manipulation and enablement. Whites, Blacks, Latinos, Arabs, Asians. All other races of the world are to be subservient to “we the chosen ones.” And now they are mowing down Gazians like blades of grass. The hypocrisy is off the charts and should enrage any decent person.
To be clear, I have no objections to Judaism as a religion, I have objections to Zionism. Gail, feel free to take this post down if it is too inflammatory. Gaza was bad enough, but after this attack on Iran, I lost it.
I let commenters express their own views.
I imagine that Jews have a range of behaviors, with some behavior more objectionable than others. You were dealing with young men who were competitive enough to get into medical school. Perhaps this situation “selected” for below-average behavior.
“They should never be allowed to hold political office or positions in law or banking.”
What if they apply the same fraud and group self promotion to other areas like medicine, real estate, car sales, diamond/gold/jewels sales, movies, TV, news, food, farms, fishing, etc……
I understand that you would like to stop “mastery of deception”.
If that is the case, what would be the best way to avoid it? To exclude groups, where some members have practised deceit? What if they cancel group membership, gain access again and go on with their deceit?
There are groups that officially declare other people to be their enemies. Should these groups be forbidden? Wont they become matyrs or go underground? Where does this start, with “delegitimation” or with the preparation of aggressive acts?
I think it would be easy to start a list of “masters of deception”, that dont identify as jews.
What is more, “deception” seems to be a bad category. Does it mean financial fraud? Or does it mean, people play another role in public than in private life?
A lot of damage today seems to be done by people who are reelected even after their evil intentions have been know. Besides, the law allows individuals to be prosecuted for criminal offence but not groups on a religious or ethnic basis.
As other geopolitical experts have recently said many times, that Israel’s plan to eliminate all 7 of it’s ME enemies (ME doctrine that the US and Israel planned) is going to backfire, bigly. Israel is just making its argument of self defense look real bad.
“Pakistan calls for Muslim states to unite against Israel”
Defense Minister Khawaja Asif urges Muslim countries to cut ties with Tel Aviv over strikes on Iran
https://www.rt.com/news/619404-pakistan-calls-muslim-fightback-israel/
China is testifying before the ICC that Israel is violating international law by shooting doctors, nurses, ambulance drivers in Gaza.
Russia is pushing back against the surgical castration of six year old boys.
Very sad situations, it sounds like.
Bravo does return some old articles about sexual torture by Israeli to palestinians. nothing recent. Pro tip: you will never find such a link using google (or yandex I suspect).
To add to Hubbs’ post above, I know Wojcicki (sp?) the father. One daughter married Sergey Brin, and after the divorce, was leading 23andme, a genetic material surveillance program masquerading as a private company.
The other daughter famously rented her garage to Brin and Page, and ended up leading Youtube (she thought it was a good idea to vaxx multiple times, and she was dead at 56) and starting the elimination of thousands of channels and millions of videos (specially those from Novorossiya 2014-2015, showing the civilian’s massacres, but also anything covid).
It is all a family business of course, and I understand the politics and acts of Google and youtube perfectly, knowing the protagonists. They are supremacists, managing the human herd same as I manage my animals. I take advice from agronomists and they take advice from Bernays, and surely now, AI models run at Weizmann Institute.
>> Russia is pushing back against the surgical castration of six year old boys.
This is a new one to me … you mean in Gaza? Google and Yandex return nothing.
We can feel whatever about Israel’s actions, but if Israel loses, a general collapse of the West which would make 1918 look like a picnic gone wrong will take place in English speaking countries and their close friends.
I am afraid that you may be correct. One reason why Israel has been supported so strongly by the US is because it is key to having a foothold in the Middle East, where quite a lot of the oil is.
Of course, the US + Canada also have a moderate amount of oil. The US + Canada have a much lower population than Europe + Asia. Japan + Australia + New Zealand would also like oil. There is not enough to go around.
Fall of the western government GREAT!!!
Long live Persia, China, Russia.
“… if Israel loses, a general collapse of the West which would make 1918 look like a picnic gone wrong will take place in English speaking countries and their close friends.”
the fall of teeny-weeny Israel will not hasten the “collapse of the West”.
though it will be one more strong signal that “the West” is getting ever weaker.
it’s often predicted that smaller weaker countries will fall first as degrowth proceeds for the next few decades.
Israel might be one of the next, though they have a big sugar daddy over here with the USevilEmpire.
a “general collapse” of Europe might happen after enough of their countries grow weaker, perhaps in the 2040s, or sooner in the 2030s.
the UK is probably at the head of the line.
Trump the peace President says the US could get militarily involved in the Iran v Israel conflict.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-hints-possible-us-entry-war-amid-stepped-israeli-daytime-attacks-tehran
Londo based Alexander Mercouris has said today and I agree with him that this is all about regime change in Iran. As if Israel needs more of that. Also ZH posted another article where the Israeli’s asked the US if they could murder Iran’s Supreme leader, Trump said no at least for now.
Iraq is also warning that we could see $300 barrel of oil if the conflict widens.
According to the Zerohedge article linked,
I think the war is about more than regime change in Iran. I also think that $300 per barrel oil won’t happen.
I work with a girl who is 20. And asked her ‘were there autistic and gluten free kids ?”
She said “Yes, quite a few”.
I said “There were zero when I went to school. Why the change in 20 years?
She said “Because they are putting heavy metals in our food”.
She said “The school teachers told her this”.
WOW!
We are not quite sure what the reasons are, but the reason is not a change in genetics in recent years. This seemed to be an early explanation. It has to be something in the environment, or in additives to food, or perhaps something in immunizations. Or a combination. Mothers not getting enough vitamin D because they are inside all day working has been suggested as another idea.
Governors of numerous red wing states all declaring a “State of emergency”. Activating the national guard over tiny protest which pose nearly no threat. (doesn’t add up)
Looks like something big is coming..
Then again, could be just fear tactics. Remember ZomBiden and “Dark Winter” that never happened.
People are “on edge.” They are worried that there will be an uprising against Trump and his team.
Iran is now retaliating, against the illegal war against it, with some serious kit.
> Powerful explosion after Iranian missile hit target in Tel Aviv.
https://x.com/IranWarDesigner/status/1934183496588693815
> Aerial photography of destruction in the israel/ This is not Gaza!
https://x.com/IranWarDesigner/status/1934211161148325972
*
Two channels with updates:
https://x.com/SprinterObserve
https://x.com/IranWarDesigner
Iran continues to unleash some serious kit that the west is clearly unable to stop.
Iran is saying that it is about to bring out its more serious kit.
It says that it has enough missiles to do waves of missile strikes everyday for the next two years without running out of kit.
Israel is already saying that it does not have the air defence missiles to keep going for much longer (even if they could stop Iranian kit.)
Israel relies on USA for kit, Iran designs and manufactures its own advanced kit in large quantity.
USA is already depleted from supplying Ukraine, and it cannot keep up with Russia, Iran, China, North Korea, even alone let alone combined – in design or production.
If Israel thought that (non-existent) Iranian nukes were the real problem then it is getting a reality check now.
Israel has set itself up for a total debacle in front of the entire world.
> The Israel is shocked by the precision of Iranian missiles, especially their targeting of key and strategic military, intelligence, security, research, and infrastructure sites.
https://x.com/SprinterObserve/status/1934350964221149566
> “Israel’s” Channel 13 quoted Reserve Major General Amiram Levin as saying that:
“Israel” is heading toward a political and economic catastrophe.”
https://x.com/SprinterObserve/status/1934349776071303453
If the US tried to support Israel, could it reasonably be expected to do much better? You are right; the US is very low on ammunition, after supplying other wars. China is not supplying the materials we would need to make more ammunition.
Which do you think was the best conducted legal war?
Al Jazzera reports:
Israelis shocked by number of missile hits despite defence systems
Meron Rapoport, editor of Israeli news site The Local Call, said the Israeli public was taken aback by the number of Iranian missiles that breached the country’s advanced defence systems.
“Although the military is trying to portray this as expected, Israelis are quite surprised that so many missiles did hit targets in Israel and that the damage is so huge,” Rapoport told Al Jazeera.
He added that the strikes also succeeded in hitting some strategic targets and that some incidents have likely not been disclosed to the public.
“We don’t know about everything because the censorship is quite hard – and if we do know it, we’re not allowed to say it,” he said.
Rapoport added that he sees a deal on Iran’s nuclear programme as the only possible way out of the conflict.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/6/15/live-iran-fires-missiles-as-israel-strikes-oil-facility-in-tehran
Iran population 90 million — Israel 10 million . Israel must have a 9 times rate of killing . How many of the Israeli with dual passports waiting to get out ? Will this be like Ukraine where Zelensky runs out of people before the Russians run out of ammo ?
Population in and of itself is irrelevant. It’s not WW1
plus the countries don’t border each other.
“How many of the Israeli with dual passports waiting to get out ?”
That would be all of them that didn’t heed the numerous warnings over the last 20 odd months. I doubt there’s any flights out of Palestine now, so over land through Jordan, Saudi, Syria or a dash to Cyprus on a boat(say hello to Mileikowsky).
“Will this be like Ukraine where Zelensky runs out of people before the Russians run out of ammo ?”
No, although bloodthirsty, these people are spineless cowards and are only willing to fight(murder) unarmed women and children, preferably below the age of 2 and from distance.
They will run…. Oh, they can’t anymore.
So sad, no one anywhere will say.
The main pieces haven’t even joined the game yet and don’t appear needed. Over to the orange eejit then, because they undoubtedly will be if he’s told to become more involved(which seems nailed on).
Israel has lots of young soldiers, including some volunteers from other countries. What it lacks is substantial bombs among other things. Fossil fuels are in short supply, especially if their refinery got damaged.
It is expected by the Israeli military. Same thing happened last year. Only difference this time is Iran’s targeting strategy is less conservative because it’s declared war this time.
Everything we read earlier about Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah seemed to indicate that Israel’s military strength when it comes to bombing is quite weak. Everything got shot down. Iran seems to be much stronger. This goes along with that narrative.
And here we have a very interesting and recent update from Iran through Nima Alkhoshid’s interview to Prof. Marandi.
It comes out that in addition to France and US, Israel is being helped through Turkish radars and US bases in Baharein, Qatar and UAE.
(The article quoted before talked also about Azerbaijan, which was the place visited by previous Iranian President before the incident with the elicopter).
There are various Countries palying double game with Iran.
Saudi Arabia is not mentioned, so maybe it is not playing against Iran.
Marandi explains how the IAEA helped Israel to identify places to bomb and people to kill.
In my view IAEA should be closed, it cannot be trusted anymore.
Any comment on this developing story is welcome.
This interview is very interesting
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7bzgC-alNlo#
Yes, Prof. Marandi speaks the truth. It is hardly only IAEA. OSCE in 2014 was doing the exact same thing in Ukraine. The radars matter up to a point, since the missiles can not be stopped regardless. But drones can not be used.
My impression is that whether Trump is informed or not, whether he agrees or not, US-Israel-France-UK are going on with their origina plan of trying to weaken and divide Russia, to submit Iran and make of (and use) China as they want.
Maybe the difference in comparison to Biden is that Trump is making some crazy shows with contradictory actions, but the underlying strategy is going on in an equal way if not in a worse way.
in there somewhere is Trump’s big ego.
he wants to be known for “making the deal” (like his famous book) to end wars.
the USevilEmpire will continue to try to manipulate other countries, but their actions will become ever less effective.
Trump’s ego is irrelevant. It’s just political cover for political theater. If his ego was relevant then the black Intel services would have killed him already because the black intel services can’t risk losing everything because of an ‘elected’ person’s ego.
Thanks for the Marandi interview. It’s very up to date, he lays it out in its ugly truth nicely and saying that, am I the only one seeing a distinct change in language?
Various satraps that thought they were players have had a hell of rude awakening, as they realise that Iran is doing little more than clearing old stock so far and that’s probably why all the coalition of genocide have been passing message to Iran begging them to ‘negotiate’ which have fallen on death ears and the finger has been pointed not only at the main actors, but also the complicit.
When you write “US-Israel-France-UK” don’t forget the Luftwaffe. They are also doing their bit for genocide(refueling, targeting).
Your last paragraph for me is the simple truth. The orange idiots sole use is his perversion of language and so meaning. Makes pushing people towards the predetermined goals so much simpler.
When you want simplicity, bring on Mr simple.
For anyone that doubts the above, a few examples of a simple orange eejit doing what simple does.
All hail the stumbling child-king*
“There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end,”
“Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire,”
“No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.”
“I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come — And they know how to use it,”
“Certain Iranian hardliner’s spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse!”
Dumb orange idiot jumping the gun, because he can’t tell the difference between the start of something and the finish.
If that’s not mental enough, in the United States of Disney they call him the president of peace(unless i misheard and they said peas, which lets be honest, even though it makes no sense, still makes more sense).
Anyone that has social media accounts(assuming there’s any that aren’t diligently blocking reality) please post anything interesting in the unfolding tale of Becoming Gaza.
*Johan’s apt naming.
IAEA = International Atomic Energy Agency
The military leaders of Israel talk as if they will burn Gaza and burn Tehran. Prof. Marandi thinks that this is no way to talk. The West is not concerned about the Arabs and other people of the Middle East.
I watched Trump’s pathetic military parade.
The Navy, the Air Force, the Space Force, etc refused to participate and the Army showed they were not too thrilled to do this.
In the later part of Napoleonic War, the Imperial Guard was rarely committed because its quality had declined and if it was lost the war was lost.
US Forces now have become like the Imperial Guard, famous in name and weak in reality. If a US force is seen chased away from the field, that is it for the Dollar.
Agree . You are being gracious by calling them ” pathetic ” maybe no better word . A boy scout parade is more enthusiastic and orderly . DEI conscripts ??
https://indi.ca/america-is-the-3-military-now/
This is a parade .
anyone who has marched in a military-style column knows that it is very difficult–almost impossible- to stay ”out of step”.
the guys in trump’s parade were doing it very deliberately–it was just so obvious….
That’s the second conspiratorial thought you’ve had in two days. Proud of you Norm! It doesn’t, however, bode well for his future dictatorship now does it?
no conspiracy involved.
it takes collective deliberation to stay out of step when marching in a column….they were saying up yours donald…..
they well still follow orders when the going gets serious….
Non-public collective deliberation over planned public activity is the definition of a conspiracy Norm, whether it be dudes getting out of step in a military parade for political reasons or something more nefarious than that.
Years ago the Wall Street Journal had a contest of investment experts to pick equities for the biggest returns and for amusement had a Monkey pick the choices too.
At the end no surprise was the winner…
Blindfolded Monkey Beats Humans With Stock Picks
By Alfred KueppersStaff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal
June 5, 2001 7:26 pm
For the second straight round, the primate stock picker made a monkey out of his professional and amateur rivals.
Three Monkeys and a Cat: The Truth about Picking Stocks
Monkeys With Stray Kitten
https://prosperitythinkers.com/three-monkeys-and-cat-pick-stocks/
“A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts.”
Adam Monk is the now-retired Chicago Sun-Times investment guru and Brazilian cinnamon-ring tail Cebus monkey who picked his stocks by circling them in the newspaper with a red pen. Outperforming the indexes four years in a row, from 2003-2006, Monk did it again in 2008 with a portfolio that only lost 14% while most money managers were posting losses upwards of 35%. (The “Free by 50” financial blog noted that Adam Monk’s returns bested the Mad Money host Jim Cramer’s choices by significant margins 2 out of 3 years.)
In 2010, as money managers tried to walk erect at the tail end of the recession, circus chimpanzee Lusha thrived. Her portfolio topped 94% of Russia’s mutual funds, nearly tripling her initial capital of 1 million rubles ($35,884), the Daily Mail reported.
Anyway, all this fuss about AI and Cyber trading…sure it will make the marketplace better..right
We are at the mercy of the randomness and fickleness of fate..
Prince William’s billionaire pal dies after swallowing bee while playing polo
Prince William’s polo-playing pal Sunjay Kapur, a well-known Indian billionaire and chairman of global car parts giant Sona Comstar, collapsed while playing a match in the UK News Christopher Bucktin United States Editor Updated 11:11, 13 Jun 2025
Would this count as a death due to anaphylaxis?
He seems to have died of a heart attack and his last words were “I’ve swallowed something.”
The Times of India are reporting on this in their Entertainment section.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/entertainment/hindi/bollywood/news/ive-swallowed-something-sunjay-kapurs-last-words-before-fatal-heart-attack-on-polo-field-report/articleshow/121844783.cms
I know an old lady who swallowed a fly…
I do recall that. How would you explain Warren Buffet? Think of this as a question, not a challenge.
Dennis L.
There’s something to be said about being at the right place and time and vica versa….
When I am a the Pearly Gates I demand an explanation about it from the “Boss”
The ex dentist is a celebrity whore and thinks all the celebs are ‘talented’, whatever that might mean.
Warren Buffett’s dad was a congressman and knew Ben Graham. Enough said.
Warren buffet is very explainable, with anyone born in the same type of environment, with the same type of education, including a father who was a stock broker during the depression could easily follow.
In his very early formative years when very young, in a household where people were complaining to his father all the time about how much had been lost in the stock market, then working in his grandfather’s store and doing many paying jobs as a teenager, during the war period, where he was just too young to serve.
Then after the war going to college and learning about stocks, while able to put what was being pushed by ‘professors’ into perspective with his early years experiences at home from people’s losses..
In other words he had 20 years experience before he even started.
People also tend to forget he nearly went bust a couple of times, he had a huge advantage with setting up his early investment partnership, where he made a large proportion of any gains, during the biggest growth period of increasing energy use in the world during the 1950’s and 1960’s, where growth in the whole country was booming..
Then when set up with huge funding behind him and 40 years worth of life/stockmarket experience behind him developed a strategy of ditching poorly made decisions as quickly as he could, while keeping winning stocks.
Remember he has made several attempts to get into airline stocks and always lost money on the deals. He learnt and had enough experience 50 years ago, to reduce the odds of losers, in a portfolio, plus recognise when a bad mistake had been made, to get out quickly.
Most other investors learn the same types of rules after decades of experience so start doing well when in their later life, if persistent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aO5GWJJP3FM
Mouldy old dough – Lieutenant pigeon.
I watched this and it made me think of Pagett. I wonder why? 🙁
A very interesting article by Simplicius, with quotes from other analysts.
He makes some considerations about Israel intention to trasform Iran in a sort of Iraq / Siria / Libia and if US will decide or not to enter the conflict helping Israel to create additional hell on the Middleast.
It seems to me exactly the same scheme like the one put in place with Saddam about the existence of weapons of mass distration that, after various millions of deaths, proved to be wrong.
My impression is also that, contrary to the past, now most people of the world are watching and are against what Israel is doing and US is allowing, with just the US, Israel and European élite approving that.
Nobody drinks anymore the bull..it of terrorism and crazy regimes.
I see a great possibility of a terrible future for credibility, trust and friendship from other Countries of the world in the next months and years.
Because everybody will hate that couple.
Is there time/intention for US to reverse this?
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/true-promise-3-iran-responds-with
Both sides have figured out the fossil fuels are terribly important. And it is doubtful that Israel’s bombs did as much damage as claimed. According to the article:
If things are this bad, it seems like Israel should have figured it out themselves, before hand. But this sounds like previous reports of Israel’s attack attempts.
It’s great fun watching the tortoise like western missiles slowly ascending, only to see an Iranian missile zoom past as if they were standing still.
After the successful strike on the refinery, another single missile zoomed in and it all went dark.
https://x.com/s_m_marandi/status/1934012223330115960
They’re now bleating that they are being turned into Gaza. Poor dumb squatters still don’t understand what is coming.
Western bs cope is at ridiculous levels(expect decapitated babies soon) and anyone that thinks Iran can’t or won’t stop traffic through Homez should either quite, or start the drugs.
Iran has multiple ways that the West can do nothing to stop and they have the ability to ship(limited) from outside the Persian gulf, but they don’t need to close it, just control traffic flow, which they can at any time and no amount of floating coffins will change that(AnsarAllah can confirm this).
In squatterland it’s now an arrestable offence to film “becoming Gaza”, which is a shame, as there’s another wave on the way(maybe there already). Filming any fireball that was a military operation is now treasonable. The West is sending all it can including whole squadrons and arms that were on their way to Ukraine, because Iran is losing badly, or something.
there is nothing yet that is getting WW3 started.
how long do we have to suffer patiently until it begins?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/world-news/2025/06/15/TELEMMGLPICT000428760155_17499699947550_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqRmcLc_VwZsc7wOtCMsK22oX55UGE1-QmdhXTcMmlCx4.jpeg
Bat Yam, Israel. Iran did it.
Recent Apple paper saying that AI cannot is stymied by complexity of a certain level. As models seem to be improved, they tend to “overthink” and hallucinate more than previously,
https://tech.yahoo.com/ai/articles/apple-researchers-just-released-damning-151149678.html
Apple Researchers Just Released a Damning Paper That Pours Water on the Entire AI Industry
https://ml-site.cdn-apple.com/papers/the-illusion-of-thinking.pdf
The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity
Abstract [with paragraph breaks added]:
Development takes time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4__gg83s_Do
Yann LeCun says it will take new methods.
The federal government setup about ten academic centers to study the brain fifteen years ago. They are still working on it. It may take another twenty years.
https://cbmm.mit.edu/
There are lots of questions to be answered.
https://cbmm.mit.edu/news-events/news/how-brain-distinguishes-between-ambiguous-hypotheses-mit-news
Are you volunteering? We’ll send Hannibal Lecter to razor your brain out.
“Recent Apple paper saying that AI cannot is stymied by complexity of a certain level. As models seem to be improved, they tend to “overthink” and hallucinate more than previously, ”
Rather like over-intellectualised People who don’t know which bathroom to usw.
Zerohedge is now saying:
Trump Rejects Netanyahu’s Request To Join War, As Israel Needs Large US Bunker Buster Bombs
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-proclaims-total-air-superiority-over-iranian-capital-area-war-intensifies
Update says:
–In the past 48 hours, Israel has asked the Trump administration to join its war effort, per Axios
–Israel seeks help targeting & destroying the fortified Fordow uranium enrichment site
–Axios says the Trump administration is so far rejecting the Israeli request
–But if Fordow remains intact, Israel’s mission to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program will be considered a failure
A video saying that China has major problems because too many of its firms are losing money. Local Chinese governments keep trying to prop these firms up, using more and more debt. This is being done to preserve jobs, and to prevent more unrest from happening in its cities.
Some of this video is based on a Bloomberg report of some kind. The most recent Bloomberg I came across talks a bit about vulnerabilities, but is generally much more upbeat.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-13/china-s-economy-withstood-trade-chaos-but-momentum-likely-slowed
He lost me at “#2 economy”. You don’t pick many youtube winners, Gail…
Tony has done these videos for many years. This has always been his intro. That said, he has gone darker on China’s economy over the last year.
It seems like there must be some truth to it. We keep hearing about difficulties in China from different sources, and China has stopped sending some kinds of reports. Chinese residents have been putting their savings in the purchase of condominium units, but the value of these has been falling. This, by itself, must be a big down-drag on the economy.
Starting to think economics is impossible without biology is the basis of many misunderstandings of contemporary life.
China went to a one child policy which resulted in a surplus of males. A condo or any non replicating item deteriorates without self replication.
Life self replicates and by nature discards what does not work keeping what is fit for a niche.
All the increased throughput of energy in the material world is dependent on life finding ways to do it and use it. This assumes a spaceship earth, not the universe.
Wonder if the universe is self replicating; the big bang seems either incorrect or incomplete. So many have wondered what would happen if one fell into a blackhole; current speculation is we are already in one.
Well, time for a new narrative.
Dennis L.
Society is not easy to maintain.
1. Are jobs preferable to handouts? I think yes, there is a semblance of purpose; man seems to search out purpose.
2. If the jobs are supported by credit, in a way is that not transfer of wealth from those who have to those who do not?
3. Idle hands are the devil’s workshop
Dennis L.
Hi Gail, I know you have MN family. I thought you & OFW readers would be interested in knowing that two MN legislators & their spouses were shot in the early hours of Saturday morning, in their homes. Two are dead. The shooter is on the run, and the State Patrol are asking people not to attend the No Kings protest. A sad story from strange times.
Thanks! I noticed that article.
There is violence, even in Minnesota.
inevitable in a fully armed society convinced of the approval of their god
She was shot because she sided with Trump on medical for illegals apparently (she was a democrat who had defected for this one issue). you can see her in tears over it in an interview shortly before the assassination. A little ability to modulate your tune will not kill you, Norm.
irrespective of the personal outcome
my comment stands….
the USA now has a dictatorship in the making…it will be unpleasant for everyone—-and i do mean everyone….
Right. Let’s keep peeling that onion. Who cui bono’s from this false flag but the ongoing nationalist color revolution under political cover of a fake neoliberal ‘color revolution?’ The Hand be lolzing over these easy pickins.
Which society, what god, what approval? Inevitable implies to me a 100% outcome. Is that what you are saying?
yes
the god name is irrelevant
its the god concept that’s the problem…
”we” are the chosen people-therefore you are not….
it will please our god if we kill you….
armies or individuals, the thinking is the same–that preacher in minnesota was a deranged lunatic…..but he saw himself as doing gods work….
Is this Iran / Israel conflict going to spread or is it just going to be bombing for a m month out so? Iran had to know this was coming. It might be a way for China to see how its weapons do against U.S weapons. Get the U.S bogged down in this mess would also help a struggling China.
https://www.youtube.com/@RedactedNews/videos
This journalist couple have picked up some good guests on this issue.
I am not sure whether you are referring to multiple videos, with interviews on this subject. One video at the link is “This Changes Everything” – Scott Ritter Says Israel’s Strike on Iran Could Spark Global War”
I don’t think the world is ready for global war. Not enough weapons.
” Not enough weapons.” . Not important . This is the age of asymmetric warfare . How about cyberattacks or a financial war ( tariffs , REE ) , indirect attacks on the enemy that undermine his capacity to engage in a ” hot war ” . The West is still thinking on WW 2 level with focus on aircraft carriers, blue water navy , bombers and dog fights . Difficult to teach an old dog new tricks .
Drones, cyberattacks, hypersonic missiles … all relatively inexpensive… and precise.
With these recent technologies, everything is a sitting duck.
I presumed that drones would be outfitted with plastic guns and 10 rounds. Even that is far more expensive than a 5 inch plastic spike… which travelling at 100kph is nearly unstoppable.
War could be very inexpensive…. if done right. It there was no concern about civilian populations…. it gets even less so. I dont suppose there will be much concern going forward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pel0FntPSbU
How the Eliza Effect Is Being Used to Game Humanity
… another option is to just wait a few years… and let the problem take care of itself. The ramifications of what this video is hinting at… are chilling.
Essentially, learning is no longer possible.
Sad situation!
Fake pandemics work really well too.
Israel was administering polio vaccines to the same people they wanted expelled from their lands and who they stopped u.n. humanitarian aid from reaching.
It seems to me, injections are the cheapest way for mass eliminations. Precondition is, people can be stripped off basic needs, if they dont comply. In doubt the power goes to the software company, not the goverments. These contracts are currently set up everywhere in Europe. The contracting companies are usually from the USA. Such a war would destroy populations and countries but not infrastructure.
War by other means . Now we wait for China to react ,
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/taiwan-imposes-export-controls-chinas-huawei-smic
Where is DJT ? 24 hrs and no statement from WH or state department — not even a lower level bureaucrat . However two things for sure
1. Trump now owns the two wars in Ukraine and ME .
2 . His last dream of being awarded a Nobel for peace is down the drain .
DJT has a visceral hate for Obama but Obama got the Nobel and this is like an eyelash in his eye . Now he knows he can never be level with Obama on the international stage and this is a big blow to his ego . Watch out for more FU ‘S .
Nobel peace prize is such a joke it does not register at this time. trump is just a small maladjusted man with an inflated ego. he is irrelevant.
We had a few of them in History..small maladjusted with inflated ego (Napoleon, Addie Hitter), at one time they were also thought to be irrelevant until they weren’t
Won’t argue against the second, but as someone who has absolutely zero ancestry from anyone in the British Isles, the first one was not
Even now the British think destroying Napoleon and allying with the Asian Prussians (Prussia, including Berlin, was considered to be part of Asia back then along with Russia) and the Tatar Russians was a good thing, while the two Asian tribes would terrorize Europe for the next two centuries.
Napoleon had an intelligent wife.
Yeah, she kept her trap shut and said yes dear…just kidding…sorry Gail
drb , not important for you/me but we are not DJT with massive ego’s . Over the last month he has taken credit for brokering the Indo- Pak ceasefire and as a result Modi is on the hot plate in domestic politics . Money is not his motive , but power and at 78 years age to carve a name in history , What is MAGA but an egoistic trip .
small men with inflated egos can kill millions befor their irrelevance is proven
not sure he is killing anybody right now. he is along for the ride like biden.
Hitler didn’t kill anyone either…
Norm you do realize that that statement makes you a major conspiracy theorist don’t you? Every respectable Englishman knows that Adolf killed at least himself. Surprised at you.
i’m not respectable
There are no witnesses of Hitter killing himself. A recent video I watched came to a different conclusion.
Seems he may needed someone to do the deed since hesitated repeatedly.
Frustrated orders were given to “help” him with it
To kill guys, you have to have power. Trump has very little.
stop aid to starving nations and people die….
stop medical care to sick people and they die….
just in case that hadn’t occurred to you—most things don’t, by my observation
Such as some people from the British hickland and their equivalents in USA
Pagett wrote:
“stop aid to starving nations and people die.
stop medical care to sick people and they die.”
Yes, that’s right, keep giving aid to useless nations at a time of peak oil. Then your own people will get ever more squeezed and start clamouring for just the sort of policies that Pagett claims to dislike. Hmm, something not quite right there. Or is Pagett just false-flagging, do you think?
cut medicaid—and your own (lesser) people will die
but hold a parade costing $45m and your ego will inflate….
but the parade was a flop—the ”crowds” confirm that….
and watch the soldiers marching—–it takes collective concentration to march ”our of step”….even his own army were telling him something by doing that.
0_rwp87Rh0XmoWvP4H.webp
“but hold a parade costing $45m and your ego will inflate”
That’s a piddling sum compared to what the USA was paying annually to the world’s useless eaters.
i imagine you are one of them
i confess that i am….but fortunately not under the pension umbrella of the usa
The USA pays me nothing. I am an Englishman, living in England, and I am paid from British pension funds. Because I worked for my living.
grovelling-type apology
your seemingly pro-trumpian stance made me think you were a citizen of the usa.
i too worked for a living, here in the uk, did my bit to increase the surplus population, (by popular demand i hasten to add)……
retired, sort of, years ago, but there still seems to be a popular demand for my labours, even at 90….
my ego won’t let me give up, not yet anyway, but i daresay the grim reaper will find me on his satnav before long….
“grovelling-type apology”
? Logic-free remark.
“your seemingly pro-trumpian stance made me think you were a citizen of the usa.”
I’m not pro-Trump. But I see the peak oil logic that is driving certain of his policies. As supposed “far-right” presidents go, Dubya was far worse, but he was basically just a puppet for Cheney, the CIA, and the neo-cons of Nettingyahoo’s country.
Norman, your Trump Derangement Syndrome is getting a wee bit tedious.
Trump Derangement Syndrome—TDS—tedious; get it!? 🙂
And no, I’m not a huge fan of the Don, either. Not being an American, I don’t have to be. But as long as he is driving the Dems into a frenzy, I reckon he’s doing a grand job. He is easily the best POTUS they’ve had this century, although he doesn’t have much competition in that category.
If the US has to have a president, I would have preferred someone along the lines of Ross Perot, Ron Paul, Ralph Nader, or even Lyndon Larouche than any of the men who have held the post since Jimmy Carter.
On the other hand, experience and common sense tells me that it would be impossible for a president to run the US in the way I’d like to see it run. I guess the Don is the best leader the Americans are going to get. At least he’s a good carnival barker, and he seems to be opposing the globalists and interfering with their plans.
By the way, Adolf didn’t kill himself. Rumor has it he was whisked away together with Eva to South America on a U-boat escorted by Ian Fleming, which was only fair as he was a British agent run by Chatham House who was installed in order to ensure that Germany lost the war.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Hitler-British-Agent-Solving-History/dp/047311478X
the manners of a gentleman cannot be faked….
the don has never figured that out…
He’s the Don with the luminous nose!
Never mind I think Iran is done … they don’t have much left
Walmart is closing a store in Albuquerque. “Business Insider recently reported, “Walmart did not answer questions about whether crime rates at the Albuquerque location were responsible for the decision to close it. But Albuquerque police officers had their hands full with the store in the past year. The Albuquerque Journal reports that 708 calls were made requesting police service at or near the store in 2022.”
There is not sufficient disposable income in this location to support the store. It does not argue well when income declines sufficiently that Walmart cannot make it. Theft basically indicates the thief does not have money with which to purchase. The GDP equation has a leak of 50% or so. Walmart can increase GDP through goods purchases, but the final link the consumer is broke and no transaction is recorded.
A possible conclusion: things are tougher economically than one might think. Gail’s ideas, not mine; I stitch them together to guess at local conclusions.
Dennis L.
Just went up to Merritt Island near Cocoa Beach Florida.
Shocked to see the Mall empty with lots of stores fronts vacant.
Still has a Dillards and Macy’s open but steep discounts.
Last time were thee it was a vibrant full operating packed with customers.
That was before the pandemic….
Now dying, the movie theater converted to a cheapie movie house with discounted tickets..it was an AMC before that.
Anyway Cocoa Beach look like it was doing OK. The A1A shopping strip with Ron Jons Surf Shop and the road to the cruise ship pier in Cape Canaveral looked busy and homes were kept up nice.
Steange
It is sad if even Walmart cannot be profitable presumably in a low income area of Albuquerque.
I know when I visited my sister in Seattle a couple of years ago, there was a homeless encampment near where she lived (which was a modest, but high- priced residential area within the city). It seems like there was a Walmart nearby, also.
Things seem to be going downhill badly, a lot of places. Near where I live, the local mall is operating in bankruptcy. Quite a few shops are closed; the ones that are open have few customers and big discounts. A few months ago, the lights were turned off for non-payment. Somehow a bailout was arranged. The situation is not sustainable.
A very interesting interview by professor Nima Alkhorshid to US Colonel Larry Wilkerson (Gulf war and other various roles) and former US Ambassador Chas Freeman (Amb. to various Middle East Countries) on the current international situation.
Israel, Iran, China, Russia and also some considerations on current US internal situation.
Warmly suggested.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9L-A8bx8-X0
Freeman says that trickery has always been used in war situations. Trump’s strange actions with respect to Iran can be understood in this light.
If you scroll down, this link shows GDP per capita for all countries of the world (not just the top 50.) GDP is relative to US$, without adjustment for purchasing parity.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/these-are-50-richest-countries-gdp-capita
Rank Country/ Region ISO Code GDP Per Capita
1 🇱🇺 Luxembourg LUX $140,941
2 🇮🇪 Ireland IRL $108,919
3 🇨🇭 Switzerland CHE $104,896
4 🇸🇬 Singapore SGP $92,932
5 🇮🇸 Iceland ISL $90,284
The US is number 7 at $89,105.
The UK is number 20 at $54,949.
Japan is number 38 at $33,956.
China is number 73 at $13,687.
Liechtenstein GDP per capita $186,400 in 2022. Ivoclar is a very nice dental supply company, always have excellent products. Supposedly they also manufacture there. Looks like a very pleasant place to live, not easy to get citizenship there, fluency in German necessary.
Dennis L.
Gail , a useless statistic . None of them have guns . Always the golden rule ” He who has the gold rules but he who has the guns will rob the gold ” — QED
Ravi, Perhaps in the short term. In the long term or medium term it is biology and biology is children. Without children gold has value to an individual of perhaps fifty years max.
It is human creativity, ingenuity and ability to transfer knowledge to the next generation that generates wealth.
Given the choice between an IQ of 150( I suspect there is more than one of those here) and a ton of gold, the choice is trivial; the IQ allows one to make as much gold as one would ever wish.
Economics does not exist without biology.
Dennis L.
Countries that are tax havens, or deal in financial services, seem to do well with this measure.
I have often thought this too. I like how simply he put it. White liberal guilt creates these laws; but the ones creating them are wealthy. They have no idea how the lower classes live.
I suspect the difference is the lower classes can make even if on an assembly line, many/most of the ultra wealthy have a narrative. The narrative works until it doesn’t and then stops.
Dennis L.
This seems to be a good point, written by someone from Canada:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/race-based-policies-inevitably-produce-inter-ethnic-animosity
Race /religion/ caste based politics are the curse or blessing I don’t know . However I do know that the critical mass is 20% . When these class achieves that figure they become the the power brokers between the two spectrums in the political arena . E,g . UK , Belgium , USA ( Hispanics, blacks ) , India ( caste based) etc .