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Summary:
- Today’s financial system allows many promises of future goods and services. These include debts, pensions, and even prices of shares of stock.
- However, the quantity of actual physical goods and services that can be produced appears likely to be shrinking in future years because of resource depletion.
- This mismatch means that many/most of these promises likely cannot be paid as promised. The economy will somehow change to match what is actually available. We should not be surprised if, one way or another, we receive much less than has supposedly been promised. Even if a high currency amount is provided, it likely will not buy very much. Or a new government may be in power, with virtually no promises of benefits.
- Today’s economic system requires both increasing energy supplies and increasing debt to function properly. We are now encountering limits with respect to both world energy supplies and US government debt. The parts of the world economy that are most affected by limits will likely begin to contract soon.
- We don’t know precisely how this contraction will take place, but we can examine a list of countries whose GDP has already been contracting to see how they are faring.
- Perhaps we need to be relying more on our families and/or on “villages” made up of extended relatives or friends for our long-term support, rather than on government programs.
Introduction
The world is filled with financial promises, including loans, pensions, and even the market value of stocks. So far, the system seems to be working, but in a finite world, it is hard to believe that the system will work indefinitely. Governments can create money simply by adding more promises, but they cannot create goods and services in a similar fashion.
We know that actual physical materials are needed to make the goods and services that people depend upon. Energy supplies are particularly important in making goods and services because, according to the laws of physics, energy is required to produce physical goods and services. Forecasts that support current financial promises ignore the fact that we live in a finite world. Eventually, we will run short of easy-to-extract essential materials, including fossil fuels, uranium, lithium, and copper. Economic growth will need to be replaced by economic contraction.
In this post, I will try to explain the situation in more detail, together with some charts showing what is going wrong now, such as Figure 1. In some ways, we already seem to be reaching limits to growth.
[1] At first, added debt is helpful to an economy.
In some sense, added debt pulls an economy forward.
As long as there are plenty of inexpensively available resources and not too much interest to pay, added debt seems to make sense. It pulls the economy forward, in the direction that those resources are to be used. It “feels good” to the recipients of the goods and services made possible by the debt. People like the homes and cars that added debt makes possible.
Ordinary citizens have clear limits on their credit card debt. The limits on government promises seem to be hidden until they are actually reached.
As long as an economy is growing, that growth seems to hide many problems. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff are two well-known US economists. In a 2008 working paper (p.15) examining 800 years of government debt defaults, they remarked, “It is notable that the non-defaulters, by and large, are all hugely successful growth stories.” Without “hugely successful economic growth,” it is impossible to keep adding debt and repaying it with interest. The growth allows debt to be paid back with interest. It allows the fiction that an economy will continue to grow, and this growth will provide the margin needed to repay the debt with interest.
While the world economy has been an amazingly successful growth story since the industrial revolution, we now seem to be running short of the inexpensively available fossil fuels that have made economic growth so far possible. With this change, the economy is likely to start a major shift from economic growth to economic contraction.
We don’t know exactly how this shift from economic growth to economic contraction will take place, but we can hypothesize that the economies that have recently been growing fastest might be farthest from contraction, and the economies that are already struggling with low growth might be the ones most likely to slip into contraction. The countries slipping into contraction can be expected to have special difficulty repaying debt with interest and meeting other financial promises. Some governments may even collapse, perhaps in the way the government of the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
[2] Not too surprisingly, given the physics connection stated in the introduction, total world GDP and world energy consumption are highly correlated.
In fact, the growth rate of energy consumption and the growth rate of GDP are also correlated, as can be seen from the similar patterns on Figure 4.
A scatter diagram of the X-Y data used in Figure 4 gives the result shown in Figure 5:
Figure 5. Three-year average growth rates are used for stability. Energy growth rates are based on energy data from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute; GDP growth rates are based on GDP in constant 2015 US$ as published by the World Bank.
[3] A major issue is the fact that the growth rate of world energy consumption is trending downward.
Figure 6 shows a big upward bump starting not long after the year 2000, driven by the addition of China’s inexpensive coal resources to the global energy supply. The low-cost portion of China’s coal resources is now mostly depleted. In addition, we don’t seem to have any other energy sources that will be available in large quantity in the near future. We have been adding wind and solar, but their impact has been small. Their impact is reflected in the total energy increases shown in Figure 6, and in the other charts above.
[4] Even worse, the rate of growth of world energy consumption per capita is trending downward. In fact, if the trend line were extended to 2025, it would seem to indicate contraction in per capita energy supplies.
We know that it takes energy to make physical goods. Even services require some level of physical goods and energy, such as a building to perform these services, electricity to operate tools, and the materials needed to make any tools, such as computers or scissors.
On Figure 7, note that the trend line is dropping below 0% in 2024, and even farther below 0% in 2025. This means that a smaller energy supply is available, relative to the population. If less energy supply is available, fewer physical goods relative to the population are likely to be available, as well. No one announces this, but we see the impact in many ways. For example, we discover that our daily newspaper is no longer being delivered. Or we discover that the products we see in stores are becoming increasingly flimsy. Meanwhile, young people are becoming less able to afford cars, homes, and almost everything else.
Furthermore, with limited total energy supply, international fighting about physical goods becomes more of a problem. The place we see this first is with respect to minerals. With limited energy supply and ores that are increasingly less concentrated, it is becoming difficult to extract enough materials such as uranium, rare earths, and platinum to meet the needs of all countries. Prices may temporarily spike, but they do not rise high enough, for long enough, to allow production to rise to the overall needed level.
[5] Falling interest rates push the economy along; rising interest rates act like putting brakes on the economy.
Interest rates play a far greater role in the economy, and in economic growth, than many people would expect. Falling interest rates between 1981 and 2022 greatly supported the economy (Figure 8). Since 2022, higher interest rates have acted like a headwind to the economy. This is a concern when it comes to the possibility that the economy is heading into economic contraction because of an inadequate supply of low-cost energy.
Another piece of the picture is the effect of the “yen carry trade.” It allows international investors to borrow money at low rates in Japan, and invest this money in the United States and other countries at higher rates. The yen carry trade has been supporting international borrowing, but it now seems to be at the edge of unwinding because Japanese interest rates are now higher. With this change, it is more difficult to borrow yen at a low rate and invest the proceeds elsewhere at a higher rate. The unwinding of the yen carry trade could push US interest rates up, regardless of what the Federal Reserve tries to do.
[6] Interest payments on US government debt are already getting to be a problem.
US government debt is now close to $38 trillion, and total interest payments have recently risen because interest rates are no longer near zero. Total payments now exceed $1 trillion per year.
The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is now concerned about the high level of interest payments. When interest rates were very low in the 2008 to 2020 period (Figure 8), it was possible to add debt without substantially raising the amount of interest to be paid. But now, with higher interest rates and the debt balance increasing, interest payments have become very high, to the point where they even exceed defense spending. It becomes difficult to raise taxes enough to cover both interest outlays and other funding shortfalls.
I talk more about some of these issues in post called “Energy limits are forcing the economy to contract.” Clearly, if the US economy is being forced to contract, it is very difficult for it to be a hugely successful growth story.
[7] Which countries of the world seem likely to be most resilient against energy limits?
If we believe Reinhart and Rogoff, the countries that would be most resistant to collapse would be the countries that have been growing most rapidly, in recent years. Figure 11 shows a listing of the most rapidly growing countries during the 2019 – 2024 period, based on World Bank GDP data.
The only country on Figure 11 that is an “Advanced Economy” (member of the OECD) is Ireland. Ireland is known for its pharmaceutical exports and for its unusually low taxes on corporations. Many companies choose to domicile in Ireland to take advantage of the country’s low tax rates.
All the other countries are, in some sense, “less advanced economies.” Wages are likely lower, giving them an edge in extracting resources and in manufacturing, and then selling the goods to more advanced countries. Some of these countries may have been given loans by the IMF or China to help them develop their resources.
China and India are both known for their coal use; historically, coal has been an inexpensive energy product, allowing countries to make goods inexpensively, for export. The only country listed whose growing GDP is based on oil extraction seems to be Guyana in South America. Its oil extraction started very recently.
On Figure 12, the list of shrinking economies reads like a list of sad situations that we have read about in the news, way too many times. Many of the countries have recently been in wars or similar situations. None of the countries are Advanced Economies. A few of the countries (Iraq, Libya, Trinidad and Tobago, South Sudan, Venezuela) are oil producing countries.
With respect to the list of slowly growing countries, shown on the right side of Figure 12:
- Austria, Czechia, Estonia, Finland, Germany, and Japan are all Advanced Economies with inadequate energy supplies of their own.
- Puerto Rico is an island territory that has recently had debt problems.
- Thailand is, in some sense, a dropout from the rapidly growing nations of Southeast Asia. My impression when I visited Thailand earlier this year was that a great deal of overbuilding had taken place. Excuses for more debt had mostly stopped.
- Argentina is an oil-producing country with difficulties.
- China tightened its grip on Hong Kong in 2019, leading to much slower economic growth. Presumably, there were underlying issues that caused this tightened grip.
- South Africa has both coal supply problems and inadequate water supplies.
[8] What lies ahead?
I think that we are already in a world of “not enough to go around,” because resource limits are leading to an inadequate supply of finished goods and services for the world economy as a whole. Some countries are already being squeezed out, particularly the countries listed as having “shrinking GDP” in Figure 12. I expect that, over time, an increasing number of countries will be added to the shrinking GDP list. The outcomes may be as bad as seem to be happening to the economies that are shrinking today.
History shows that governments of shrinking countries tend to be overturned by their citizens, or they may collapse on their own. If collapse happens in either of these ways, governmental promises of pensions, and of guarantees on bank accounts, are likely to disappear. Even if the current governments can be maintained, countries will be forced to cut back greatly on the programs they are providing. Pensions may be cut, or they may be inflated away by hyperinflation.
Some governments today talk about possibly introducing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). If these currencies are implemented, I would expect that they will be used to ration the increasingly limited supplies of goods and services that are available among their populations.
I do not expect that there will be a formal World War III. Instead, I think the United States is already in a cold war against practically every other country because there cannot be enough goods and services to go around. The US can’t go into a formal war against China because it provides parts of the supply chains for many essential goods the US uses today. Even Europe is a competitor for essential goods. For example, the less oil Europe uses, the more oil will be available for other countries.
While new technologies such as artificial intelligence and energy recovery may eventually alleviate our energy problems, it is unlikely that such approaches will solve our problem in the near term. As a result, governments are likely to be less able to keep their promises. Historically, families or “villages” of extended kin have provided safety nets, rather than government programs. Perhaps now is a good time to be thinking about how we can move in this direction, as well.
Jojo Moyes’ Me before you is another stupid book, promoted to dumb down the population.
In there, Will, a high flying businessman, is hit by a motorbike and is paralyzed neck down.
He sees his entire world crashing down and losing everything he had, and although a lower class caretaker brings him some romantic ideas, he chooses to die rather than being associated with her since it is beneath his status.
However there is little mention about what was done to the biker.
In the old world before Chucky did ‘his duty’, the biker, or whatever the equivalent back then, would have been sent to the gallows, since what the biker did was beyond crossing the class barrier and was dangerous.
Not much is talked about what happened to the biker.
Will was powerful enough to eliminate the biker’s entire family. preferable if the biker, who was a Pakistani based upon my memory, did not belong to the proper side of the street.
The entire family’s life was not worth that of Will’s so the elimination of the biker’s entire family would not have made any dent on civilization.
By not entering the segment where the entire family of the biker perish in a gunfire or a fire or something like that, Jojo Moyes, whose background is scant but apparently not from the better parts of society, wrote another stupid book where the lowlives get away harming those who are better than them.
few people now remember the Zimmermann telegram.
Georg Zimmerman now is more remembered as the killer of Traybon Martin. With his German sounding name this was going to be blown into a big crisis, until his obvious Hispanic features defused any fervor.
This Georg Zimmerman was the German Foreign Minister, actually the deputy Foreign Minister since in the German Empire the Prime Minister was the one dictating foreign policy.
Zimmerman sent a telegraph to Mexico, offering that if Mexico invaded USA Germany would help it get back some of its territories lost in 1849.
Mexico, in the middle of a civil war (Pancho Villa and all that), lacked the power to fight USA so this thing was a wind, but Woody Wilson, swayed by British lobby to bail London and Paris out, used it as a casus belli to jump into the Great War, with disastrous consequences to Western Civilization.
The invasion of Venezuela is the Zimmermann Telegram moment for USA.
While Venezuela is annoying, it is no threat to the global order and Maduro is a small town thug.
He does covet Guyana, a former British colony with heavy Rockefeller interest, but it is in the middle of nowhere and not really significant as the world is concerned.
yet Trump is acting like he is going to invade there, Venezuela has lots of oil but they are very hard to process, and it is mountainous, not easy to conquer. The capital , Caracas , is in a highland so not easy to capture by beach landing.
All the drones used by the Houthi in the Red Sea will be used by Venezuela against US warships, and what would Trump do? Nuke Caracas, whose nicer buildings are all owned by the kind of people who are going to take over Venezuela if Maduro is removed?
But if US forces withdraw vrom Venezuela without accomplishing anything, that means USA is defeated in its back yard.
So the invasion of Venezuela has become the Zimmerman telegram moment for USA.
It is also a defining moment for Russia. Venezuela and Russia signed a strategic security agreement and it will prove Russia toothless / a bad ally if USA topples Maduro. I suspect there are some anti-ship missiles in Venezuela and that is one of the factors preventing USA from launching direct strikes.
Well that was not tge case when Syria fell
I guess there were recently some updates (revealing) on the Syrian case. Why the support was not fully provided – received / abandoned / on time etc.
Tru, but Putin will never harm his favorite country.
The USA can blockade Venezuela and are in fact already doing so. This will trigger an eventual sinking which will in turn trigger an atom bomb. they have no alternative apparently. russia and china have to find asymmetric responses before it is too late.
I don’t know military matters, but some have said you can’t keep these naval assets there indefinitely, or at least not at great cost.
(not without great cost, I mean)
I have a hard time imagining an atomic bomb being used in a populated area. There is too much of a need for trade. Bomb material is in short supply.
Nicely pictured situational update for Caracas-Venezuela.
I’m not following developments in detailed resolution there.
So, for starters though we could now authoritatively claim the US “retreat / re-focus” on its own backyard sphere of influence is for real.
But the nuanced debate remains, chiefly in the respect how far are CHN-RU&co. already engaged there? We don’t know the progression-extent of game plan over there.. Surely at this point there must be numerous air lift / cargo ships of various equipment delivered already. How many and in what kind?
If that’s in the ballpark of many cases of RPG and drone-sets stored for every largish city block inside major populated areas and docks etc.? Then invasion / nudged uprising would likely fail.. But there could be other measures taken like naval blockades, IT hacking, etc.
My bet would be very short term skirmish at worse, both sides declaring ~victory/repelling -> resulting in mutual understanding in the region – nevertheless lets not provoke US that much in the meantime..
PS although the long term historical record is clear that the probability of US entangling itself very soon into yet another bogged larger scale invasion is almost guaranteed
That is a US defeat
Venezuela is a flyweight as far as the international pecking order goes
If USA cannot prevail over a flyweight it is over
Chinese and Russian weapons make the war more exciting.
Tim Morgan issued new installment at Surplus.
Notes further accelerated tempo in the decline mega trend..
Europe’s implosion lowers consumption and staves off collapse for the rest.
Exactamundo!
I’ve already posted few related notes under the UK video.
But be aware there is always [manic-epic scheming efforts] just for the very next day. For example the Germans are now ~openly admitting that their -50% massacre in carz production is going to be eventually soonish recuperated via theirs boosting heavy arms manuf. instead etc.
Despite their functional annihilation already, but given the sheer gigantic km2 landmass of UKR / RU – it will take many months, perhaps additional ~1-2yrs before there is no “eastern front” as such to export anymore..
Hence, ” they live ” in their western capitals / HQs for another few moments more..
In a way for “us bystanders” it’s also likely promise of extended-prolonged quasi BAU for just few bittersweet seconds more as it were..
Europe is too preoccupied with multiculturalism to reindustrialize. They can jabber about it in the meantime, though.
Don’t be fooled by the headlines. Europe has been busy making sure that they couldn’t change even if they desired. The US will soon learn that like Europe, they are also Gottlieb Biedermann.
“This is what Kierkegaard calls “Demonic Despair”: the defiant refusal to be saved, a willing of one’s own destruction because transformation is more terrifying than annihilation. The Biedermann is the figure of unconscious despair in the political sphere, one who knows the fire is coming, yet hands over the matches because he cannot imagine becoming someone who would act otherwise”
https://themindness.substack.com/p/weaponizing-time-part-iii-the-steel?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
It will be interesting when the native population realizes their fascist masters want them to go and die while more immigrants pour in.
I think the main problem is energy and economics.
Germany already cannot afford to maintain much of their failing bridges, many are closed permanently, they cannot afford the ever increasing levels of pension demands, they cannot afford their crappy green energy, and soon they must deal with a subcontinent blanketed with useless solar panel waste.
Germany ruled by the present elites and the EU is dying fast.
The immigrants, in such numbers, are the tool which will be used to drum up hatred and blame, so setting the mental state of the people to do their masters bidding(been here before, many times). I used to wonder about the population replacement theory, but in truth those in power couldn’t care less who serves them, as long as it’s cheap and has no rights. Part of that new mental state, will be this acceptance, by what we would presently consider middle class people(who will of course blame anyone but their masters).
Germany’s bridges are such a ridiculous situation. Just the money sent to the black hole that is Ukraine would be more than enough for the next 100 years and the little fact that they have not only repaired, but massively reinforced those suitable for outside power projection really makes a mockery of their spineless acquiescence.
“Germany ruled by the present elites and the EU is dying fast”
Willingly so it would seem, which makes any sympathy pointless.
A song for Europe
https://youtu.be/oIFLtNYI3Ls?si=y5I_Akr_UdpIy_aT
Yes but for how long does it stave off collapse?
We will find out. Probably not very long.
But there are also Japan, Australia, and New Zealand that might collapse before the US. It may be serial collapse. China’s problems may pull it down (and apart). There are a lot of things we don’t know.
Yes and no. Just like when Western countries outsourced manufacture to China, energy consumption will just shift elsewhere and stays the same – everything is going to India right now, for two reasons, the first being Western investment moving there to counter China and the second being that India took for itself the Russian energy which was German before (at cheaper prices even), so it’s only natural that as Germany collapse its industry, India will thrive and accelerate (specially considering the first point).
The only way for the collapse to slow down, for us to buy some time, is a systemic crash. That’s exactly what was deliberately done with Covid lockdowns, by the way. And also, this way of saving time is no different than collapsing things itself, right? It’s a controlled demolition, but a demolition nonetheless.
The AI bubble (also known as Nvidia’s) will certainly cause another Covid effect at worse or a 2008 at best. The remedy will be the same as well – low interest rates, quantitative easing… They will “inflate” away the debt.
But this comes at the cost of further destroying purcharsing power, which is inevitable anyway, since money’s energy-backing is decreasing.
I’m betting on the same ol’ crisis once again. The last crisis, the deflationary one, might come right after. Let’s see… 2026 for the AI Bubble bursting, 2027-2029 for inflationary period and 2030 early signs of the deflationary slope.
I don’t have a crystal ball, by the way, so take it with a grain of salt.
I particularly like this comment:
The only way for the collapse to slow down, for us to buy some time, is a systemic crash. That’s exactly what was deliberately done with Covid lockdowns, by the way. And also, this way of saving time is no different than collapsing things itself, right? It’s a controlled demolition, but a demolition nonetheless.
I’m still of the persuasion the lock downs served two very distinct sets of operational purposes:
– forced de-pop control (sponsors were ~falsely promised way higher impact by the sub-contractors)
and or the effects on future de-pop are generation-ally delayed ..
– calibrating all the soc-econ and infrastructure evaluation tools on consumer living habits and spending in times of war like / hard ~PO crash scenarios – basically an edgy mill/sec. drill coming “on live” ..
—
+ obviously the overall goalpost reshuffle/removal for printed money/debts out there for few more years..
To counter but a single point of yours, the plandemic was not a systemic crash. If it was a systemic crash we wouldn’t be here shooting the breeze right now. We would be outside scrabbling around for some damp deadfall for our rocket stoves and the like.
We have already wrung what inflation can be wrung from the system before finance capitalism collapses into another operating system for a time. I’ll take that big grain of salt.
At hunting camp, I talked Dad into helping me build an 8×12 utility shed at the edge of our 5 acre field for a backyard nursery with air pruning beds, potbelly stove, solar and 500 gallons of water catchment. On my hikes with the trusty 8mm, I found a 4″ buck rubs, a 20″ American Elm, Witch Hazel and some mature Downy Serviceberry trees 30-40′ tall. Chatgpt says to take advantage of the 2025-2030 timeframe to acquire materials for building out the perenial food plots while shifting to agroforestry, niche crops and native seedlings sales then to barter in Phase 2 and beyond.
Nice plan of action. Sounds like it’s gonna be a great setup and new addition. Thanks for clueing me in to air pruning beds, wasn’t aware of them.
Great effort and smart planning there.
I guess several of us here are trying along similar lines – albeit in my case on likely way smaller acreage though.
The air-pruned nursery beds of yours are “classical” rectangular larger volume or the more recent “column” x more copies style.. ? I’ve found the column-bucket style more practical in the smaller setting and sense I can place and forget them near southern porch insolated perma-heat context (for the fruit specimens to excel)..
In terms of amelanchiers (serviceberry) I’ve got experience only with the compact bush cultivars not full sized (northameric native) tree, the habitus and fruit taste from the bush are good so far.
Supposedly hi-impact detoxify-er and anti cancer agent.. (the local birds quickly approved the program as well – perhaps that cultivar’s elevated juiciness – so next season some netting necessary..).
”India will thrive and accelerate (specially considering the first point). ”
Please don’t get me started . I have pointed out the basic defects there 100 + times . Not going to go over them again ;
India will need to cut back, like everywhere else. But it may have ways under which some significant share of the population can survive. People have hand tools, and know how to use them. They are used to walking to get from place to place. Agriculture is not as dependent on huge new machines as in the US.
Rest? Asia?
Asia wastes the most resources
It is Asia which has to collapse
Tim Morgan’s new article is excellent! It is worth reading.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2025/12/11/315-madmen-and-economists/
Madmen and economists: The escalating dangers of economic denial
One of the greatest mysteries of our times is why the authorities have not only permitted but actively, through their policy choices, promoted the formation of the biggest bubble in financial history, whilst knowing perfectly well, all along, how this must end.
They cannot have done this simply to further enrich the already wealthy, since they must know perfectly well that asset value aggregates can never be converted in their entirety into spendable money.
The answer is that fears of the consequences of a bursting bubble are out-matched by an even greater fear – that the ending and reversal of economic growth might move from the land of theory into the realm of established fact.
If it ever became known that the economy had stopped growing and started to shrink, no existing set of social, political or commercial arrangements could survive.
The denial of economic inflexion is the sine qua non for the defence of the status quo. Nowhere in the world is worse equipped than the West for surviving the ending and reversal of growth.
Tim Morgan writes from the UK. The UK is in particularly bad shape for surviving the ending and reversal of growth.
Some of his article sounds very close to what I have am saying in this article:
the economy is not shaped by money. Within our two economies conception, we know that money has no intrinsic worth, but commands value only in terms of those material things for which it can be exchanged. This, in Surplus Energy Economics, is the principle of money as claim.
We can indeed create money in virtually limitless amounts, but we cannot similarly create those material things without which money has no meaningful value. Unlike money, energy and raw materials can’t be loaned into existence by the banking system, or conjured out of the ether by central banks.
Hate to cross-posts discussion among the top PO forums, but there at Surplus seems to be very important thread by “FI” and “James” highlighting the striking difference between ~800k yrs (2025 updated) run for modern humans in competing groups yet internally sharing stabilized communities vs the comparatively very brief past ~10k yrs of very pro-psychopathic selective hierarchies among stationary -sedentary civilization-al settings..
—
+ remind you [AC Clark & Stan Kubrick ] noticed that odd general trend in the 1950-60s and proposed the outside nudged – intervention phenomenon hypothesis..
aka in short ~mutated humans by outside force since that threshold and for this very outcome..
That’s because they were science fiction businessmen which is a euphemism for the self-marketing of unscientific fiction.
Well, for starters #1 (a) profound mal-mutation – fork in pop human evolution DID HAPPEN THAT’s OBSERVABLE FACT – it’s clearly demonstrated on way different ethnology/sociology/psychology by distant populations (say Amazonian, Oceania, ..) which populated other areas and vectors of the globe BEFORE the fork event took place..
#2: we don’t now the origins, most likely some
joint forcing of living in the tight semi-urban quarters with domesticated animals CONTRIBUTED to it (e.g. neuro-parasites forcing?).. at the minimum, most likely in / near that ever crazier area of ME / Levant..
What is the empirical evidence for a panspermian fork jak?
Pls elaborate a bit more – not sure what you meant here?
Are you questioning the key fork I just mentioned above, e.g. 15-20k yrs BC wanderers reaching Patagonia being evidently VERY DIFFERENT peoplez vs the (partially-) mixed up psychos out of ME / Levant (incl. us ~euros) today..
Or are you more going back to that specific AC Clark-Kubrick ver. stuff?
In case of the latter I guess there is a further nuance since panspermia concept relates more to the very initial living form arrangement starting up ~3.5bln years ago on Earth.
In terms of the Clark-Kubrick thesis proper as I mentioned previously, that ~ 10:1 strange ratio (~800k yrs vs 10k yrs) could be also explained simply by not favorable series of ice-deicing periods, so it lasted so long (many attempts) for us to get to the Levant with domesticated cattle and get some eventual bug-parasite into our brains and going crazy (genetic mal adaptation) since then..
And or their core-preferred version (I’m not devotee 100%) that such specific genetic shift was actually caused by extra terrestrial influence.. in order to (..e.g.) terra form the planet in ~few yrs time, perhaps in terms of affecting more favorable temp/CO2 levels via fossil-2-greenhouse effect, who knows..
Thanks yes with panspermia I was referring to the core-preferred extraterrestrial genetic influencing which is was I mean by panspermia, but I guess directed panspermia is the proper term so I apologize for the misunderstanding. (As an aside, directed panspermia and simulation theory don’t logically go together.) What percentage devotee of directed panspermia would you say that you are, and on what basis?
Civilization does indeed devolve humans at the level of genetic robustness, so it stands to reason that the pristine Patagonians from 20,000 were quite different from us. Same goes for the Native Americans of a few hundred years ago and less. But I don’t at all see how that requires a germ theory based parasite theory to explain. That seems really bizarre to me and I’m not familiar with it.
Thanks for the clarification.
Actually, I’m not that far involved – actively believing in such “ET” sub plot option much, hence relatively low-ish probability.
As you were likely hinting from our previous exchanges, yes I’m increasingly more inclined towards some version of simulation though, be it either our own ~distant future existence just finding active occupation for the mind-soul via “backwards time projections”, or similar sub-variants.
In terms of the “germ – brain bug theory – Levant angle” that was more or less a running joke – or just a shorthand placeholder for the overall-unsual quick adaptation process we underwent in that recent ~10k yrs span towards hierarchic – confined societies and its discontent topical discussion.
Overall, I’m perhaps bit inclined on the overall “paranoid” live-experience persuasion. Not sure perhaps it stems from the weird family backgrounds – as having for many conseq. generations older fathers (+40yrs), so for example my grand dad, whom I briefly encountered in childhood was not that far away from say Adolf’s generation (and actually performed as “his” PoW).. Hence in such setting you tend to see various mega trend historical linkages as more acutely pressing phenomenon – a bit differently than say average “lost” population’s perception in time&space of ~reality..
Cool. Sounds like you suffer from cumulative oldspermia then ha ha.
I see the quick adaptation to civilization as merely a function of the fact that humans have been capable of civilization for much longer than civilization has existed. They just chose not to because it was culturally anathema to them. Cultural anthropology makes clear than the handful of times that civilizations did arise independently, it was always the result of a warped desire to escape a regional ecology chronically compacted by human overshoot and the chronic warfare that results. The aberrant cultural decision to circumvent that cycle of ecological poverty, and possible the death of that culture, by enslaving the ecology in order to run grain surpluses that afforded a standing army and the resulting ability to engage in expansionary warfare was surely inevitable given Free Will but nevertheless it represents turning that low-level distributed, self-organizing dysfunction of regional tribal overshoot into a far more intensive, structural monster that must continue to relentlessly run those year on year surpluses at all costs or collapse altogether.
The first requirement of civilization is that it must be able to simulate the wild well enough to support life. And that just basically comes down to food clothing and shelter. You stick any wild monkey in a zoo and it’s gonna live. Doesn’t require much adaptation beyond the initial psychological shock of it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/orbital-data-center-space-race-has-officially-begun
>> Week after week, the news flow shows a new space race taking shape, as Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Sam Altman appear to be the major players in the scramble to get chips into orbit – almost certainly joined by other billionaires quietly working behind the scenes.
Of course these AI centers weigh much too much.
You worry about details. I agree with you, however. And space junk would reduce already short life expectancy of the systems.
Judges take away children from their families.
It seems to be a new tendency in Italy.
There are two popular cases during the last weeks in Italy of judges who order to take away children from original families.
They are 2 similar cases.
Motivations seem to be related to not conformity of the house related to bathroom close to the house but outside (but it appears to be a weak one), on the contrary the main issues seem to be:
1) parental instruction, which is allowed in Italy, but opposed in facts
and
2) not compliance to mandatory vaccinations for children (10 are mandatory here, 5 suggested, in addition to the yearly flu vax suggested each year).
These are cases of families which try to live in peace, in the nature, in nice houses, but at the margin of society, which seems to be not liked by the authority.
What is weird is that these families are wealthy, honest, cultured, love their children and treat them well.
Very worrying tendency, also for foreigners who choses Italy to leave in a nice retreat.
https://mediasetinfinity.mediaset.it/video/leiene/nina-la-famiglia-che-vive-nel-bosco_F314119301009C29
At timing 0.15 of the following video, one can watch a policeman takes away the little child of the two, while he is screaming because he doesn’t want to be taken away from his family.
It is a freightening and horrible scene.
https://mediasetinfinity.mediaset.it/video/fuoridalcoro/giu-le-mani-dai-bimbi-ce-unaltra-famiglia-nel-bosco-e-nessuno-ne-parla_F314086901013C06
Sorry, correct timing of the little child taken away by police from his family while he is desperately screaming is timing 1.15.
Total number of vaccinations for children (mandatory and suggested) arrives in Italy to around 18 vaxes.
Some of them are multiple in one single time.
Need to bribe a doctor to say the shots are given.
Easier said than done. I tried with two in Italy and they were terrified.
I find funny that people in the west are talking about the Russians taking away Ukranian children (who are mainly orphans living in what is now Russian territory), but we should talk about Italian institutions taking away children from their own fathers, mothers, sisters and brothers with no valid reason.
Who will repair the psychological and physical pain of being forced out of one’s family while being a child?
I’ve never seen things like that in my Country in the past.
To be honest, they took away the baby of a couple who left him for a very brief time in a locked car in the sun. It was 2019 I think.
drb753,
ti conosco da qualche anno, quindi tenderei a propendere per i primi due casi a seguire:
1) rispondi cosi’ perche’ ti stai confondendo.
2) rispondi cosi’ perche’ un parente o un amico italiano ti ha riportato, magari inconsapevolmente, una falsa notizia.
3) hai l’obiettivo di sottostimare il pericolo di questa tendenza (che va oltre quella dei giudici che, in pandemia, obbligavano i bambini a prendere il vaccino Covid quando uno dei due genitori propendeva per il no al vaccino e l’altro gli si opponeva tramite un avvocato).
Bigger Than 2008! $2T CRE Crisis + Trillions in Toxic School Bonds Will Bankrupt America
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uY5EpJl5fUo
Interview with Mitch Vexler by ITM Trading. Its not just about school bonds, but that is the fuse that has now been lit.
I had been following the school district bond fraud in several US states… loosely. In the last few days, we have learned that in the US and Canada… property and tax fraud is absolute and complete.
The Great Taking kicks in nicely once people realize they are on the hook for everything. Owning a home is now a huge liability. Any value they once had, was stolen years ago. What a year we are heading into.
I am afraid I haven’t had a chance to listen to this whole video. The huge amount of debt outstanding was able to inflate greatly in the 2008 to 2022 ear, when interest rates were falling or close to zero. Asset prices inflated with the falling interest rates, but median household incomes did not rise accordingly.
Now, the “chickens are starting to come home to roost.” It is becoming obvious that some of this debt cannot be repaid as promised. Office buildings are sometimes nearly empty. Many shopping malls cannot generate enough rental income. Subprime auto loans are already encountering problems.
It all relates to too many promises, and debts that are starting to come due. Falling values of properties will make the problem worse.
The whole thing seems liked a scam, like the paid advertisements you saw on late-night tv in the 1980s-2000s.
My current theory is that high real estate prices were probably the death-kneel for many “small businesses”, at least in many American cities, where the major foot traffic is. Small businesses, to me are businesses not favored or protected by Wall Street or the U.S. government. American suburbia is too fragmented, for a number of reasons I am not going to discuss right now, imo, for small businesses to thrive there anymore. In cities, as rents rose, the market for commercial real estate shrank considerably to the point every occupied commercial real estate property is occupied by the same large businesses. Influential capitalists, in America, like Peter Theil are now arguing in favor of monopolies, which is a rationalization of the current situation.
Only two problems with Peter Theil’s theory of the most competitive firm brutally eliminating all its competitors is that
a.) The firm stops being “competitive”.
b.) The firm is being propped up, often at a loss to investors,
and is considered “too big to fail” which sound a lot more like Communism than capitalism.
“Owning a home is now a huge liability. Any value they once had, was stolen years ago” The value was always in the economic rents that could be extracted from the tenants .
I will see real estate as a liability when I see lenders refusing to lend money to anyone buying a home and I don’t see that happening anytime soon.
Economic rents are one of the few sources of cashflow the wealthy have left in America. They are not going to declare a majority of their tenants unprofitable even if it is true. That is why they allow for all this debt restructuring because defaults and bankruptcies mean no more cash flow.
Lately, a good way to reduce the overall cost of buying Oil fit for diesel (and jet fuel) seems to be to seize a tanker sailing in the ocean 😀
If you have to maintain a big army to seize the boat, I am not sure that this approach really helps the cost of oil by much.
Thanks, but this seems rather related to that Nov ~26/28th ? protests now in the rear view mirror.. Not sure how much is this AI cut narration vid correct but there are several nuances worth noticing in that assemblage nevertheless. For one thing, the key specificity is that it took place in the UK as similar protests of much more intensity are (were) not such exception say in FR (while for way smaller govs policy intrusion mind you comparatively speaking) etc.
Chiefly, some western govs/countries “easily” staving off further collapse ladder step down so far are NOWish really getting close to a braking point into another state of affairs on the other end out of it. The role and potential of foreign meddling of the UK would diminish by several notches down.
The spill-over effect on the role of the City in global fin networks would be perhaps not that dramatic as the big shots re-parked their xy% wealth long time ago elsewhere (Asia and Gulfies) already, nevertheless it still could further weaken the overall EURopean situation on the continent as well etc.
Although not very wise to do in general, we could summarize by claiming that with ~99% probability the largest net losers throughout next +decade period are going to be primarily nations and dwellers of the wider European realm.
And it’s going to be full spectrum theater:
currency debasement, fail of (un/availability) of basic services and healthcare, non mitigated dive of infrastructure unkeep, way lower nutrient and calories circulation through the pop (not mentioning choked import of crapware merch), overall societal malaise penetrating all walks of life, sub-regional splits to centralized gov rule, ..
I am afraid you are probably right.
Some key metals are byproducts of mining other metals; that’s a problem . Kurt Cobb .
https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2025/12/some-key-metals-are-byproducts-of.html#more
Kurt Cobb says that some minerals are not concentrated in a way that extraction will ever be economic, if these minerals cannot be extracted as by products of other mineral extraction. The three minerals that he mentions are problems in this way are gallium, indium, and geranium.
The post says:
These three byproduct metals also share another thing in common: The dominant supplier of these critical metals to the world is China. China controls 98 percent of the production of gallium, 70 percent of the production of indium and about 60 percent of germanium production. Import dependence is therefore high for most countries that use these metals in their industries. The United States for example imports 100 percent of its gallium and indium. And, the country imports about 50 percent of its germanium needs. For the record, indium and germanium have more than doubled in price since 2016. . . .
Perhaps more concerning is that the entire electronics industry is dependent on these metals in their current technology. It’s possible that new technologies could be developed that don’t require these metals. But that could take a long time, and the capital already invested in manufacturing products that use these metals is vast. Companies are going to be reluctant to abandon that investment anytime soon.
I wonder why he did not add antimony. Also much thorium and uranium nowadays.
Antimony and thorium I would agree on.
My impression is that uranium does have more concentration, so that it could be mined if prices were high enough.
The riding a bicycle analagy is nice. I would add though: i) a road for the bike to ride on which would represent (appropriately) the Earth and its natural resources, ii) the direction of the road which would represent the normative goals of planetary society, e.g. GDP growth, or more hopefully the Planetary Pressures–adjusted Human Development Index (PHDI), and iii) landscape features that the road goes through or towards, e.g. cliffs, bumpy terrain, sandy pathches, uphill and down dale to represent possible outcomes and difficulties on our biking pilgramage.
Good points!
Here is a long film in which “TR” is interviewed by a man who happens to be gay and dew wish – not that TR is bothered about that. This is not the sort of film that YouTube would have allowed until recently (which is interesting in itself). However, TR is revealed, not as an extremist, but as somebody who has campaigned against the extremist elements of Islam and against those in authority, including the police, who have been too afraid to confront those elements. He criticises ethno-nationalism and expresses admiration for Sikhs, amongst other things.
Our oldest commenter will not watch it but will nevertheless criticise me for posting it, but I know that he has a closed mind. I too used to regard TR as the neeyo natchie that he was painted as by the media, but I have changed my opinion after learning more about him. Not that I am uncritical of TR, particularly with regard to his views on Israel and by implication Netanyahu.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDtAtovop6Q
“Real Men Cry”: TR on family, jail, Islam, and the war for Britain’s soul
I think it represents a generational divide. Nick Fuentes (not someone I follow) was on Piers Morgan the other night with the conversation clearly highlighting the generational divide. Morgan couldn’t deploy his usual tactics of shame and emotional blackmail to humiliate Fuentes simply because Fuentes does not value what Morgan stands for (neoliberal rules based oligarchy). Morgan even claims to be Catholic but that didn’t stop him from mocking Fuentes for being a virgin (Fuentes believes sex before marriage is a sin).
The question is, where do we go from here?
I’ve been following Fuentes lately because he’s a key figure. His Left Conservative ‘extremism’ is singlehandedly shifting the Overton window towards himself, to a moderate Left Conservatism called engineered national socialism, but that a far-right globalist liberal might call… far right. Lol.
“US seizes oil tanker off coast of Venezuela, Trump says
“WASHINGTON, Dec 10 (Reuters) – The U.S. has seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, President Donald Trump said on Wednesday, a move that raised oil prices and is likely to further inflame tensions between Washington and Caracas.
“We’ve just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela, large tanker, very large, largest one ever, actually, and other things are happening,” Trump said.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-administration-seizes-oil-tanker-off-venezuela-coast-us-officials-say-2025-12-10/
Isn’t this an “act of war”?
This does sound like an act of war to me.
The US is importing trivial amounts of oil from Venezuela now. Presumably, China is getting nearly all of it. I question whether the US can turn the situation around.
The Guardian ran an article quoting former Biden’s West-hemi high ranking official basically agreeing with that operation and even offering some more ideas.. lolz..
I was about to post this headline. Yikes. We’re out of control. This is poorly-veiled (no one globally believes the justifications) piracy.
Too be fair though, no one globally understands/accepts the energy/population situation.
Reminds me of that book written decades ago titled “The race for what’s left”.
US healthcare is amazingly expensive compared to other countries, and the outcomes are worse. This article helps explain why–especially the higher cost part. I have seen the amazing explosion in costs over the years.
https://mises.org/mises-wire/obamacare-was-not-failure
Obamacare was not a failure
The reason government began intervening in healthcare was because some industry insiders and interest groups recognized that they could achieve and protect a level of market dominance practically unseen up to that point if they stopped merely trying to offer customers more value than their competitors and instead used government power to warp the healthcare industry to their benefit. . .
Then, in the middle of the twentieth century, the health insurance industry followed the lead of healthcare providers and pharmaceutical companies and lobbied government officials for rules and regulations that benefited insurance companies’ bottom lines.
That effort culminated in a reworking of the tax code under President Truman. The government made employer-provided health insurance tax-deductible while it continued to tax other forms of employee compensation and other means of paying for care. In other words, the government used the tax code to change how Americans paid for healthcare. It didn’t take long for employer-provided insurance plans to become the dominant arrangement and for health insurance to morph away from actual insurance.
Shortly after that happened, the government significantly ramped up demand for the artificially-constrained supply of medical care with the passage of Medicare and Medicaid, leading to an easily-predictable explosion in the price of healthcare. . .
But there is still a point where premiums grow too high, fewer employers or individual buyers are willing to buy insurance, and the flow of money into the healthcare system starts to falter.
According to the government’s own census data, that tipping point was reached in the early 2000s. For the first time since the scam had really kicked off, the number of people with health insurance began to fall each year. The industry—which had apparently assumed the flow of money would never stop increasing—began to panic. Something had to be done.
And that something was Obamacare.
Despite all the talk of affordability and access used to sell the bill to the public, the Affordable Care Act is best understood as a ploy by the healthcare industry and the government to keep the party going. . .
Did our early ancestors boil their food in hot springs?
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-early-ancestors-food-hot.html
I used Gemini to make a picture of it
https://gemini.google.com/share/e4341695a17d
I think those later images make more sense than killing a large animal and cooking it whole. Small things are easier to catch or dig up. They would likely be what the pre-humans ate.
An earlier population of primates
https://gemini.google.com/share/727846358359
Interesting! Pre-humans may have used hot springs to cook their food, 1.8 million years ago. The image shows a large animal being cooked. The biggest advantage in cooking food seems to come from cooking vegetables, however. It cuts back greatly on chewing time. It also makes the vegetable material, such as root vegetables, easier to digest. Cooking is somewhat helpful for meat, but not to the same extent.
>> Cooking is somewhat helpful for meat, but not to the same extent.
Perhaps more important, it kills parasites and harmful bacteria.
How far can the union of humans with machines go?
The atomizing society pushes individuals to closer union with machines.
I felt strange when AI proposed me some simplification like we can use paper and pen for writing again.
I had to correct it that everybody has got a smartphone now, pens and paper as communication means are very inefficient in the complex world, they require too much energy for their production, operation etc.
So we have an atomizing society on one hand and the machines on the other man that fill these gaps more efficiently than humans, as far as it is possible for those who are healthy enough to live alone.
I guess that various premature deaths today, like people dying in their fifties or sixties are also caused by the fact that there is a lot of people living alone.
As the humans are extinguishing bioreactors, you are colder and colder as you age. Who wants something that consumes energy in the world of rising energy prices and diminishing energy availability (both in terms of energy and food)?
The state must support the population, as the energy and food prices are high and the diminishing returns hit the personal incomes.
https://e.dennikn.sk/5020642/vlada-na-poslednu-chvilu-opravuje-energopomoc-sporne-pripady-vsak-zostanu/
The United States could begin requiring visitors from countries on the visa waiver program to provide up to five years of their social media history, according to a U.S. Customs and Border Protection proposal posted to the Federal Register to be officially published Wednesday.
There are dozens of countries on the visa waiver program list, including many European nations, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, Brunei, Singapore, Qatar, Israel and Chile.
The proposal suggests adding social media as a “mandatory data element” for an Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) application.
Applicants would also have to provide additional information “when feasible,” according to the proposal. The list includes telephone numbers used in the last five years, email addresses used in the last 10 years, IP addresses and metadata from electronically submitted photos, and biometrics, including facial, fingerprint, DNA and iris data.
It would also require applicants to provide information about their family members, including names, telephone numbers, dates of birth, places of birth and residences .
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/12/u-s-to-require-social-strip-search-on-entry.html
The World cup next year is going to be a lot of fun.
Whoever came up with this idea seems to think that the energy and water cost of looking at all of this data is zero.
The plan is similar to putting an invisible fence around the United States.
I am afraid I can believe this:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-trading-giant-warns-looming-super-glut-due-supply-surge
Oil Trading Giant Warns Of Looming “Super Glut” Due To Supply Surge
Echoing what has become a now daily refrain by commodity bears everywhere, Saad Rahim, chief economist of commodity-trading giant, Trafigura, said that the oil market faces a “super glut” next year as a burst of new supply collides with weakness in the global economy. According to Rahim, new drilling projects and slowing demand growth would weigh further on already depressed crude prices next year.
“Whether it’s a glut, or a super glut, it’s hard to get away from that,” Rahim said in remarks alongside the company’s annual results. . .
Meanwhile demand from China, which is widely seen as aggressively stocking its strategic petroleum reserve by 500kb/d (and as much as 1 mm/d according to some estimates) and is the world’s biggest oil importer, is expected to grow more slowly next year due to its huge fleet of electric vehicles, which have sharply reduced petrol demand. Low prices this year have prompted China to buy more crude to fill its strategic stockpile.
“China needs to keep buying at this rate, for that super glut to not show up even earlier,” Rahim added.
It is recession that leads to low prices and a cutback in drilling.
Nicole Foss always said that the dawn of Collapse would see everyone producing flat-out, prices be damned, because a liquidation sale maximizes cash holdings, and dollar cash is king in Phase 2. That puts the “super glut” and the new absolute production peak into perspective; there’s a poetic justice to it in that the new and final absolute peak was achieved by the oil industry chasing dollar cash ahead of dollar deflation, because from here on out dollars are worth more than even oil, because dollar deflation increases the real energy value of the dollar.
Well said although I don’t know if I understand or believe the last two sentences. It seems like the dollar is losing its value especially in accordance with the brick getting their act together
Thanks. The dollar has weakened this year because of the tariffs which have depressed global trade, the majority of which is dollar -based, thus reducing the demand for dollars which weakens the dollar relative to other major currencies.
The Hand is always operating on the next level; it intentionally weakened the dollar with the global tariffs in order to boost the demand for (the affordability of) oil in other currencies – especially the currencies of developing countries. And then it had the oil producers of the world pump flat-out in order to gobble up as many of those dollars on the cheap right before deflation hits and dollar value explodes. And the resulting glut lowers the nominal barrel price on top of the weakened dollar rate, which is a highly unusual dynamic because historically the barrel price is inversely related to dollar strength/weakness. It all amounts to supremely elegant twist on the backdoor bailout, this time for the oil industry itself as we Collapse into financial crisis.
Remember, the dollar has weakened only toward the EU and a few other countries. It has risen, relative to a large number of poorer countries. The usual index is misleading because it is heavily weighted toward Europe.
Sure, most poor countries have
much worse inflation problems than the US, thus they have relatively more weakening currencies than the dollar. However, structural dollar weakening via tariffs mitigates that dynamic, thereby making continually less affordable oil less, less affordable. For example, the rupee has lost 15% against the euro this year but only 6% against the dollar, so India can afford more oil because of the tariffs causing dollar weakening. And then there’s the simultaneous nominal weakening of the barrel price. Has the oil price ever dropped 15% while the dollar has simultaneously weakened by more than 10%? I’d hazard to say never.
The massive, years-long China-India-Turkey backdoor energy bailouts for the poor albatrosses of industrial civilization can never be ended because they were permanently necessary in the first place. So if secondary sanctions reduce the effectiveness of those backdoor bailouts then another backdoor bailout for the backdoor bailout has to be implemented:oil super glut plus dollar weakening. Which also becomes a new dollar cash backdoor bailout for oil producers ahead of deflation – they may be getting fewer dollars per barrel but they’re making up for it on volume and, were the price still at 70, demand would have fallen instead of risen, compounding the problem.
Europe has been funding a lot of the zero sum economic restructurings of Phase 1 by mechanisms like having to buy LNG and upsold discount Russian oil from India. This year though that burden is shifting to America, and Europe is seeing some currency reprieve (though that’s a blessing and a curse depending on the transaction) and perhaps the biggest blessing is that the yuan is closely pegged to the dollar and so has depreciated alongside it vs the Euro and we’ve all heard how, as a result ‘China has been flooding’ Europe with ridiculously cheap goods being sold at a loss in many cases. So with that and the absurdly cheap LNG prices right now, who’s getting backdoor bailed-out now? Europe is.
The end of Phase 1 is a cartoon wherein the rowboat is springing leaks and dog character is using all of his fingers and toes to plug them, in a humorous life or death game of Twister. The Chinese exports to the EU right now are also a liquidation sale and backdoor cash bailout of China just like the oil industry liquidation sale is, because they can arbitrage those high value Euros for cheap dollars.
The Hand is a big wave rider who paddles right into Collapse. Don’t need no jet ski to pull him in.
Edward Dowd of Phinance Technologies does a great job explaining why this can be the case. He is bullish on the value of the USD. He has many interviews which can be found on Youtube.
The proposed valuation does sound high, but anything goes today.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/spacex-reportedly-targeting-2026-ipo-could-rival-saudi-aramcos-historic-listing
SpaceX is preparing a record-breaking IPO targeting a valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion, with expectations to raise $30 billion or more and debut in the second half of 2026. If the Bloomberg report is accurate, the offering would surpass Saudi Aramco’s 2019 listing and become the largest public listing in history.
The report says SpaceX management and advisers are seeking a 2H26 listing that could raise more than $40 billion in stock, making it the largest IPO of all time, well above Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion listing. . .
SpaceX’s revenue is about $15 billion this year and is forecasted to climb to $22 to 24 billion in 2026, according to one source, with most of it coming from Starlink. The company’s mini-dish offering has been a major hit with consumers, helping push Starlink’s global user base to around 8 million and skyrocketing up and to the right. . .
SpaceX expects to use some of the funds raised in the IPO to develop space-based data centers, including purchasing the chips required to run them, two of the people said, an idea Musk expressed interest in during a recent event with Baron Capital. . .
Let’s remind readers that SpaceX is effectively America’s rocket program – and it leads the world by light-years.
It would be valued at a mere 70 times projected 2026 revenue.
As PT Barnum astutely noted, “There’s a sucker born every minute.”
Perhaps more than just “one” these days.
Yes, but the “promise” of overdoing Aramco’s IPO might serve as delaying factor as “greedy investors” appetite for very last big strike overrides quick panic impulses and turning over the tables so to speak.. Hence, perhaps few months or even years of quasi BAUish depression extra time, thanks Elon.
Fear is infinitely more powerful than greed. We can know that because fear is the source of all greed, making greed itself a negative redundancy of sorts. A mere derivative. Rich people be a bunch of weak, scared, crooked little bitches.
This is a very interesting IPO. There is no value in Starship. That has been a complete waste of money, and will never add any value to the company. At best it was a failed experiment, but at worst it was a complete scam.
The other rockets are what they are, and do a fine job lifting payloads to orbit. Re-usability probably doesn’t provide any real benefit, but it feels good to know we aren’t just dumping machines into the ocean. But there is plenty of competition here, with very little application other than military and communications.
Military is always the draw for companies like this, which is why I refuse to use Starlink. That said, Starlink actually seems to work, and even if it is not profitable due to satellite turnover, it might be so in the long run.
Presumably, mass adoption of LEO satellite cell service with special Starlink phones running X and Grok AI is the real end goal. I could see that giving Apple a real concern to worry about.
The school system seems to be the one that is visibly imploding more than other sectors: the schools can not find personell for cleaning services in Slovakia
https://hnonline.sk/slovensko/96249790-skolam-chybaju-stovky-pomocnych-sil-dominuje-jeden-kraj-na-zapade-riaditel-upratovacku-hladame-aj-pol-roka
Keeping hygiene is of utmost importance. Otherwise the schools become the places for the spread of viruses.
At least we have AI for teaching…
Robots can do the cleaning.
Why are oil countries pumping out so much oil at record low prices? Is it a red queen scenario where they have to?
They started on developing these wells earlier, thinking that prices would be higher because of a shortfall.
Well I was talking opec countries; they should be cutting back? No?
Yes it seems like they have to pump “all out “ just to make their debt obligations. Things seem to be getting a little more unstable
Good point! The lower the price, the more oil that needs to be pumped.
Self-harm like the hermits of the medieval ages?
Tattoo ink induces inflammation in the draining lymph node and alters the immune response to vaccination
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2510392122#core-r1-1
Pingback: The Bulletin: December 3-9, 2025 – Olduvai.ca
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/the-real-reason-europe-is-rearming
The Real Reason Europe is Rearming: Germany’s Industrial Collapse
https://trendcompass.substack.com/p/the-decline-of-britain-and-how-to
The decline of Britain and how to reverse it
Perceptive about the decline. But is it really reversible.?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUJJHgQylco
JUST IN: China Hits $1 Trillion Surplus — U.S. Exports COLLAPSE 29% | John Mearsheimer (12:19)
92,329 views Dec 8, 2025
According to Mearsheimer, the country that produces more, eventually dominates. China is winning the trade war. It had a trade surplus of $1 trillion last month, while US exports to China collapsed by 29%.
According to Mearsheimer, when China was admitted to the WTO in 2001, it believed that China would remain permanently dependent on access to US consumers. Three factors shattered this.
1. Manufacturing exodus. China became the world’s factory. US industrial base was hollowed out.
2. Supply chain capture. China made indispensable pharmaceuticals, electronics, rare earths. All roads led to China.
3. Market diversification. Belt and road initiative created a Chinese empire spanning 140 nations. America became optional.
America’s trade funded China’s rise. American farmers now require $12 billion in government bailouts. China is pivoting successfully to Latin America. The represents lost access for the US. Beijing no longer needs American consumers.
America lost.
Tariffs hurt US consumers.
America cannot find new suppliers, but China has already found new customers.
4. $12 billion bailout of farmers shows the strategy is not working. Threatening submission led to adaptation instead. Brazil replaced American exports of soybeans to China.
China had strategic patience. US percent of exports dropped from over 20% of China’s exports to under 15%. The world cannot function without Chinese manufacturing. China is now the largest trading partner for most nations on earth. The dollar’s dominance faces gradual erosion. Economic power funds military power. The nation that produce more eventually conquers more.
Countries that lost industrial capacity decades ago cannot win. Tariffs cannot restore industrial capacity. The question is no longer who won the trade war. That question was answered today, with China’s $1 trillion surplus.
——–
Actually, there is a full transcript available on the site, so you don’t need my summary. One issue I have is that running a huge trade surplus isn’t necessarily very good. This means that the buying power of Chinese citizens isn’t very good.
China also seems to have other problems. It is encountering energy limits, like other counties, meaning that it becomes difficult to keep growing the production of goods and services. Overhead becomes more of a problem. The huge debt level in China may be an issue, as well.
So, even if China is sort of winning, it may not be winning by a whole lot, for very long. It probably could use Russia’s help as well.
Dude, this is AI. John doesn’t talk like that. I continued watching to see if I could find something clear to convince you and just my luck: it got really funny when he mispronounced his own name, at the 40 second mark.
Interesting point. I was thinking the style was unusual; perhaps he had a teleprompter. But some of what he said sounded reasonable. I will be careful not to ascribe it to Mearsheimer.
All of so-called China’s strenghts are only that in times of abundance and prosperity. Huge population? Export economy? Powerful manufacture base? These are actually dire liabilities in a collapsing system.
China’s fall will be monumental.
Yep, as Reverse Engineer always loved to say, China is TOAST!
EIA has posted a figure for world crude oil production for last August (85.244 mb/d) — this is 0.5% higher than their next-highest monthly figure for that (84.839 mb/d, for last July).
These figures don’t show the types of oil (for instance, “light” or “heavy”, “sweet” or “sour”), & may be weighted by such as US-“fracked” “light sweet” crude oil (which produces little of diesel or jet fuel).
Hi Dave,
Thanks for the heads up! The amount of oil production for August, 2025 definitely is above the amount we were quoting as peaks in 2018. In fact, this is now the second month in a row that production is above the 2018 peak, and by more.
Where is this happening?
Argentina – light oil from fracking. May 748,000 bpd; August 817,000
Brazil – Light oil – May 3,679,000; August 3,894,000
Canada – heavy oil – April 4,842,000; August 5,049,000
Guyana (So. Amer.) – light oil – April 630,000; August 895,000
Kazakhstan – light oil – May 2,021,000; August 2,147,000
Nigeria – offshore light – April 1,576,000; August 1,688,000
Norway – probably light – May 1,795,000; August 1,974,000
So. Sudan – fighting down? – May 90,000; August 150,000
United Arab Emirates – light – Apr. 3,650,000; August 3,950,000
United States – perhaps light – April 13,466,000; August 13,794,000
Venezuela – heavy – April 960,000; August 995,000
State data shows that US increase in oil production took place offshore, and in New Mexico, primarily
So we can see that increases in production are spread widely. Russia’s production is staying pretty level.
Thanks for the breakdown Gail. Nothing short of a heroic clawback. BAU tonight baby!
However, oil prices (at least, in “petrodollars”) aren’t holding up ( http://oil-price.net/ — although such as BRICS are endeavoring to abandon the US dollar) — there’s only “so much” oil in Earth’s sediments, & extracting it tends to yield “dimishing returns” (including, for such as diesel & jet fuel, which come little from such as “light oil fracking”) — https://davecoop.net/seneca.
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1754006400000
Tesla Least Reliable Used Car, Owner Survey Says
Consumer Reports just published a new used-car reliability leaderboard, ranking 26 popular car brands from “most” to “least reliable,” based on survey results. The top of the list won’t surprise anyone. The bottom is a different story—Tesla is dead last, suffering the particularly harsh indignity of getting beaten by Jeep in the reliability survey.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/tesla-barely-beats-jeep-for-least-reliable-used-car-owner-survey-says
Care to highlight the problems at hand?
Is it e-drivetrain related or rather not fully flipping out cup holders, sheet metal gaps, falling rear view mirror and other non sense.. ? Disclaimer: not a fanboy nor owner, as nowadays better value comes in CHN / KR brands (EVs and plugins)..
Spontaneous combustion. Next question.
ELON MUSK: “They modeled Iron Man in the movies after me. Robert Downey Jr. and Jon Favreau met with me and toured SpaceX.”
https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1998557235698634845
Nice lol. No one ever said the Matrix wasn’t a simulation. That’s why it’s called the Matrix! The ‘cool’ ‘people’ in the Matrix take Purple Pills and ‘discover’ that ‘reality’ is a simulation. Surprise surprise!
lol, I do yield to you on this one..
This comes from the unnecessary race for the most dense energy pack (cells) package out there; and likely overall density mad dash run for soonish semi trucks production start. Also the general US substandard house el. wiring is partly to blame as there are fewer %burned TSLAs around the world.
As perhaps mentioned-linked already the industrial recyclers just hate TSLA batt packs (in some denser revisions) as they almost can’t be disassembled..
Most people incl. me are ok-ish with CHN/KR production of ~25/65 kWh for PHEVs/EVs respectively.. BUT old US-EU-JAP oem manufs don’t like that they need at min. ~45k e-carz pricetag orders.. and growing each quarter more expensive, ..grr..
Interesting, thanks.
I notice the last paragraph of the article reads,
As for how this reflects on new cars, at least when it comes to Tesla, Consumer Reports was a bit more charitable, stating: “… the American automaker has made significant strides, and its latest models have demonstrated better-than-average reliability, placing the brand in the top 10 of our new car predicted reliability rankings.”
So perhaps CR had a change of heart (or was afraid of a law suit). Once the article is out to consumers, it will be easier to see what all went wrong.
I know that insurance companies have had a lot of problems with them because only a tiny tap to Teslas can do huge damage. Batteries are especially a problem. This may be part of owners unhappiness.
I apologize if someone has already linked to these articles by quark.
Recalibration of the Limits to Growth model shows that global industrial production begins rolling over in 2025- 2026 and by 2027 is in steep decline.
“”Until now, the results have been considered primarily in comparison with empirical data for recalibration. However, the evolution of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. Excessive resource consumption by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing global population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.”
This interconnected collapse, or, as Heinberg and Miller ( 2023 ) have called it, polycrisis, which will occur between 2024 and 2030, is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.”
quark, “The Dawn of the Day the World Ends”, https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2025/11/el-amanecer-del-dia-del-fin-del-mundo.html
Without substantial new investment in obtaining more oil resources (very unlikely, to occur), global oil peaks in 2027 and will decline steeply in the 2030s.
quark, “The West at the Oil Crossroads,” and “Why Oil Production will Plummet in the 2030s.”
“Without new oil contributions after 2027, global oil production may begin its permanent decline. Easy-to-extract oil has run out.”
It’s true that we won’t notice shortages immediately, because global inventories are ample, and later because severe rationing will surely be implemented under whatever pretext they want to sell us. But beyond 2030, all these measures will have run their course, and oil shortages will be inevitable. They can still prolong extraction by relentlessly drilling everywhere available, but again, that would only buy time. ”
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2025/11/occidente-en-la-encrucijada-del-petroleo.html
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2025/11/por-que-la-produccion-de-petroleo-caera.html
That timeline sounds good to me. A couple quibbles though, and only based on what you quoted because I didn’t click. Rationing is shortages, Even under political cover. The plandemic’s rationing by other means was implemented in order to avoid next year’s rationings from happening five years ago. There is no reason why “all these measures” won’t be permanent next time. And there’s every reason why they will be permanent. The next round of rationing will break ALL.the markets and all the Bubbles. There are only 2 Phases to the DA. There will be no prolonging of extraction beyond that by ” relentlessly drilling everywhere available” in order to “buy time,” because affordability will have plummeted by at least 80pc or whatever, and that includes the affordability of opening up new oil plays that aren’t even affordable NOW or they would have been opened up already. The one exception may be dollar-funded plays (such a VZ theoretically) enabled by the coming USD stablecoin bubble (as blown by the implosion of global affordability fleeing to the dollar that is increasing in real value) which will be the lone bubble of Phase 2 that I can see.
This is a related Ugo Bardi post, in English.
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/are-we-on-the-edge-of-collapse-impressive
If oil production is really beginning to rise, based on recent production, I suppose it could make some difference. The LTG update that Ugo is referring to is one by Nebel et al, published in 2023. I referred to it earlier.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.13442
Europe Hit by Superflu Surge; UK Hospitals Overwhelmed, Schools Ordered Shut
The ‘superflu’ epidemic that has seen Britain’s hospitals declare critical incidents, schools close and the return of face mask rules is now spreading to Europe.
https://x.com/COVID19_disease/status/1998424162860478962
Schools shut down. HOLY CRAP!
We recently read a comment about a similar flu problem in Japan. Some people in Japan blamed the virus on Chinese visitors.
I’ve seen videos on twitter of hospitals jam packed in China, UK, Spain, etc.
Russia just mandated masks for all public places for one city close to border with China.
Obviously, the seasons start on the east side first since the earth has a slight tilt of it’s axis.
So I assume this will be coming to America next.
5G satellite shadow fleet redeployments, I wonder. Stuff like that.
As with the ‘covid’ vaxxes, 5G caused fibrotic disease in skin cells in the landmark Chinese study. (The Hand intentionally dropped us a breadcrumb as per Dad’s Rules.) If we are suddenly subjected to a wave of 5G, our bodies upregulated will become fibrotically diseased. That’s just physics. Excess fibrin becomes an endogenous toxin whereas when it is not in excess it is just bodily. Our nutrition levels will determine how well we can handle that fibrotic disease because the biochemical breaking down and excretion of excess, insoluble fibrin molecules requires the redistribution of zero-sum nutrients, along with additional rest requirements of course. The demands on liver and kidneys in particular are elevated. The liver produces the large, complex plasmin molecules that break down the insolubility of the fibrin, and then the liver and kidneys work to finalize the chemical processing for excretion. ‘Flu’ symptoms manifest wherever there is nutritional insufficiency. If anyone here from the UK gets sick, they should do us a solid and go get a d-dimer test to confirm this (correct) theory. The wave of electrosmog pollution could, in part also be ground based I suppose. 5G towers getting amplified or whatever.
Obviously 5G will have health consequences. But the dose is the poison. Satellites are too far out. Cell towers and office and domestic WiFi are a possibility.
Correct, the cumulative dose is toxic, and if the baseline dose becomes subclinical after the initial rollout (the plandemic) because the body has adapted (just as it did with the industrial rollout of radio waves during the ‘spanish flu’), then any customized dose on top of that can trigger clinical symptoms in some people. Right?
Also, regarding the satellite tech itself with its phased array antennas, they can set them to a directed beamforming mode (constructive interference) for maximum dosage.
What do you think?
https://www.5gtechnologyworld.com/what-are-phased-array-antennas-and-how-do-they-work/
Phased array can create coherent wavefronts, but those will still decay like 1/D^2. 5G wavelengths are still in the mm range, meaning the array alignment needs to be sub-mm accuracy and the source themselves very small. It will also be, in general, able to send the coherent wavefront in specific directions and of course is unable to penetrate metal roofs no matter what.
If you need people to get sick it is probably best to pay Verizon some money to replace wifi emitters inside homes. security update, free. Towers are more powerful than satellites, being connected to the grid, and 200 meters away instead of 200 km. phased arrays do not emit more power, they just direct it in a restricted solid angle. But it is impossible to beat the 10^8 advantage that towers have over satellites.
Ok thanks drb. Back to the drawing board.
AI Overview
Excessive Fibrin Degradation Products (FDP) accumulation, often seen with severe infections like flu or COVID-19, signifies intense blood clotting and breakdown (coagulopathy), leading to flu-like symptoms (fever, fatigue, body aches) due to systemic inflammation and clotting issues, but it also points to serious conditions like Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation (DIC), sepsis, or blood clots, requiring urgent medical evaluation to check for clots, organ damage, and treat underlying causes.
What FDPs Are & Why They Rise
FDPs (Fibrin Degradation Products, including D-dimers) are byproducts when the body tries to break down blood clots.
High levels mean there’s significant clotting and fibrinolysis (clot-dissolving) happening, often triggered by inflammation from severe infections or other diseases.
Common Causes of Flu-Like Symptoms with High FDPs
Influenza/COVID-19: Viral infections trigger inflammation and coagulation, causing high FDPs and symptoms like fever, fatigue, headache, and muscle aches.
Sepsis: A severe infection response leading to widespread inflammation and clotting issues.
Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation (DIC): Widespread clotting in small vessels, causing blockages, organ damage, bleeding (gums, etc.), and flu-like malaise.
Pulmonary Embolism/DVT: Blood clots in the lungs or legs also raise FDPs and can cause systemic symptoms.
Why It’s Serious
High FDPs signal that your body’s clotting system is dysregulated, potentially causing dangerous clots or excessive bleeding.
Symptoms like severe fatigue, body aches, fever, and headaches can be part of the body’s inflammatory response or early signs of DIC.
What to Do
Seek Immediate Medical Help: Flu-like symptoms with high FDPs are not normal; they suggest a serious condition like DIC, sepsis, or severe clotting.
Diagnosis: Doctors will check D-dimer levels, look for clots (imaging), and assess organ function to find the cause.
Check out Dr Ardis and the VIC “Venom Industrial Complex”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=169JqwvuVkM&pp=ygULYXJkaXMgdmVub20%3D
Easy to start a flu ‘epidemic’. Just put the required toxins in the water, or spray them in the air (drones).
Voila, a ‘pandemic’! Easy as.
What are the toxins?
not even worth an eyeroll
Implement an unreliable test. The problem of toxic syringes will extend not only to medicines in general or to electronics, but also to food, clothing and environmental pollution (PFAS), but also to mistrust in general, when the social cohesion disappears.
If the state does not get decent controls and producers do not have a moral barrier to making money, then we can no longer consume products whose content or procedures we cannot control ourselves. This will be a correct and necessary realization from the syringe debacle and will lead to local production. Not the worst!
That’s part of the underlying, underHanded intent for sure.
I expect most US people will decide that that low gas prices mean no supply problem, now or in the future.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gas-prices-drop-lowest-level-nearly-5-years-across-us
Gas Prices Drop To Lowest Level In Nearly 5 Years Across US
Gasoline prices have dropped to their lowest levels in nearly five years and stand at around $2.90 per gallon on average as of Monday, according to data from GasBuddy, a company that tracks gas prices.
Europe is seeing something similar with respect to natural gas prices, while US natural gas prices are higher.
https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/12/04/why-are-european-natural-gas-prices-tumbling-despite-the-cold-winter
Why are European natural gas prices tumbling despite the cold winter?
Since January, European gas prices are down more than 45%, and over 90% from their record highs during the 2022 energy crisis.
At first glance, this drop appears counterintuitive as temperatures drop and gas storage levels remain relatively low. As of November 30, European inventories were 75% full, roughly 10% below the five-year average. . .
With Asian demand relatively weak and US export capacity strong, Europe has become the primary destination for American LNG.
This consistent inflow is exerting downward pressure on the TTF [import price in Europe] narrowing the spread – or the price differential – between European and US natural gas prices. . .
Currently, TTF gas trades at just under $10/MMBtu, only twice the price of Henry Hub gas, which averaged $5.045 this week.
For context, during the 2022 energy crisis, TTF prices surged to €350/MWh (around $100/MMBtu), while Henry Hub was near $10, creating a record transatlantic spread of nearly $90/MMBtu.
In future years, if US natural gas supplies start falling short, I expect the US will reduce LNG exports before they cut off US consumers.
I can’t imagine the Henry Hub-TTF gas differential can last for long, when Henry Hub is a $5.045. It costs more than $5 for the whole mechanism of exporting the LNG. Export businesses will not make money on this differential.
Gail- Both of these comments relate to two important concerns that you have expressed before.
One: the current, and continuing low oil prices make it unprofitable for the oil industry to make the capital expenditures required to continue current levels of oil and gas production, itself an unlikelyhood even at significantly higher oil prices ($ 100/barrel) due to depletion of major oil fields and the increasing difficulty of accessing less accessible sources like tight oil, sea deposits, tar sands/Venezuelan heavy…), and
Two: The well documented near term exhaustion of fracking fields due to over drilling, and the steep production cliff typical of tight oil plays.
Both of these realities militate against business as usual and in favor of a relatively near term sharp decline in global oil production. In a deflationary economy as we seem to be entering, this could result in an economic death spiral.
Holy Christ are we in a world of near-term hurt if American LNG deliveries to Europe are being considered cheap. Nominally cheap prices, to the core consumer, of expensive fuels is what happens at the brink of a deflationary spiral, and what is a better signal of that than cheap transcontinental LNG? I just lost my bet with davidina the other day, on the 7th, regarding my prediction that the Big Nuclear Scare would have begun by about then… but I’m undeterred given news like this as well as the ‘Zelensky decision,’ the NSS’ framing of Europe as in a state of “civilizational erasure” lol, as if it was that leaked German military peak oil document from 2011 come to life, etc.
But that’s where we’re at. The end of our rope. Either it’s crushing dollar inflation or crushing dollar deflation. Right now the fairly crushing 30pc inflation of the last 5 years’ everything bubble is masking an emerging, crushing “energy deflation,” as Steve Ludlum liked to refer to it, in his characteristic semi-opaque way vis a vis the opacity of genius. Energy deflation? Wait what? What do I do with that? I figure it out. Make like an artist.
On the slowing/deflating economy.
Noticed as of lately that even the highest review graded trades people (say flat/house renovations “experts” etc.) have ample available days in their order-client book as of now, plus kind of unheard of even few weeks before Christmas.. Well, it could be just ordinary econcycle phasing slow down..
I agree. And falling home prices could add to the situation.
If governments don’t fail, they could try to bail out all of the entities (banks, pension plans, businesses) that are failing, leading to hyperinflation following deflation.
Machines and machinery
They are neither democratic, nor totalitarian. They are simply machines and machinery working according to the laws of physics.
Somtimes people think that it is the autocrats who rule the country, but in fact the machines and machinery are the ones who rule.
Just the existence of the humans is somewhat reduced to the obeyance and service to the machines, as when the humans want to exist in a certain place, it is no longer possible without the machines and machinery.
Who owns the machinery maintenance system? Or supply power?
The tractor did more than anything else to finish the collectivization effort and defeat the power of the kulaks.
Machines all need energy of the right kinds to operate. The more machines, the more goods that can be produced, and the more goods and people who can be transported. But also the more energy that those machines use.
If there is not enough energy of the right kind, in the right location, some of those machines will have to stop. Batteries can help, but electricity is inherently difficult to store. Liquid fuels also run short.
Our modern money is a social construct or an imagined reality. Money is a man made technique to solve a social problem.
I would say that our kind of money itself is the totalitarian ruler of man. The tangible machine is just a proxy for the money.
Moneys ability to grow without any workload is devastating for the host, i.e. for the economy. (A lethal virus have the same ability/function and outcome as our money.)
AI is the final machine and attempt to grow money for the believing owner of the money/machine.
Our modern money, general-purpose money, is as we can see a bad construct.
The post-fossil era will need a different technique to solve the problem of unequal access to energy.
What about an energy currency already, wouldn’t it be deflationary?
I like your analogy of a lethal virus to the world’s growing money supply.
Any money supply that matches near future energy supply would seem to have to shrink. Thus using gold as a “store of value” cannot really work.
If governments can figure out a way to provide a money supply that provides less and less, that would supposedly work. But overhead will become a greater and greater expense for every business. Somehow, population will need to fall. Those parts have not been thought out. This is why we are likely to end up with wars and epidemics.
There are many problems and you will not be able to solve them. We don’t have the structures to do that.
You can’t order a 10,000-man company to develop a new engine. A team of a few people has to do that. When it is finished, the 10,000 can advertise and distribute it wonderfully. To stick to the analogy: we don’t even have the engine development department.
So what will happen? They will fail and then you will stand there all by yourself! With a few friends, family and children. Then turn a screw for the next great invention!
So you will be engaged in pulling cabbage, without the cabbage white butterfly eating up everything. And to stomp sauerkraut. The singularity will disappear as an idea.
Yes, sauerkraut from AUT or Bavaria one of the best indeed. I discovered only three major categories of dishes with it so far (any further-profound feinschmecker tips?):
– meat/sausages/..
– potatoes w. lard-grease
– cheese and yogh in sandwiches or with pasta
(~cold!)
not counting salad mixes category..
All of Russia’s Porsches Were Bricked By a Mysterious Satellite Outage
Russian Porsche Owners Left High and Dry
Imagine walking out to your car, pressing the start button, and getting absolutely nothing. No crank, no lights on the dash, nothing. That’s exactly what happened to hundreds of Porsche owners in Russia last week. The issue is with the Vehicle Tracking System, a satellite-based security system that’s supposed to protect against theft. Instead, it turned these Porsches into driveway ornaments.
The issue was first reported at the end of November, with owners reporting identical symptoms of their cars refusing to start or shutting down soon after ignition. Russia’s largest dealership group, Rolf, confirmed that the problem stems from a complete loss of satellite connectivity to the VTS. When it loses its connection, it interprets the outage as a potential theft attempt and automatically activates the engine immobilizer.
https://www.autoblog.com/news/all-of-russias-porsches-were-bricked-by-a-mysterious-satellite-outage
2nd time in as many days that Ladas come to the fore as winners. A car really should not cost more than 10K$.
Can I get one shipped to the US?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lada_Niva
You should be able to get this ~easily imported from LatAm.. As well as parts just figure out destination where they last the longest, e.g. I guess combo of ~dry weather and relatively good roads..
Hm, looked for update, so today’s gen (based on earlier Chevrolet joint venture – heavily upgraded now) with Euro6 emissions (till Nov 2026).. EUR25K
Not much towing or cargo, this is only for specific clientele which needs compact full offorader.. ford dogs or summer house.
I guess you get better deals now from KR, SsangYong aka Musso compact awd/4×4 at similar price but these while more modern are also on the thirsty-mpg side..
Today’s “improvements” are often not really improvements. Too much complexity means too much can go wrong.
Hand’s fingerprints all over this one of course. Duh. Conspicuous consumption is in for a world of hurt.
I love my Porsche!
What? Ironic 80s joni Mitchell? I had no idea. That’s one of the most tragic things I’ve ever seen. Like mutton dressed up as lamb as if mutton isn’t already better than lamb.
I had to wash my mouth out with the animist of folk music who made sure to kill himself as soon as he knew that his genius would make him famous. That cat was out of the bag.
https://youtu.be/vDtsgVgAx6k?si=-aHG7dirgQ5RgwlM
Nick Drake! Now you are talking my language. Oh what sweet wine we’re drinking! I have all his albums since the eighties and I was playing them non-stop or several days last summer while painting the house.
His death at the age a 26 was recorded as a suicide because he was depressed and on medication for it, the investigators found with a bottle of amitriptyline (an antidepressant) tablets beside the bed, and the pathologist found evidence of a “serious overdose.”
I suppose he could have overdosed accidentally. But by all accounts he was suffering from a fairly severe depression.
Ironically, I think it was his youthful death that shot him to mega-fame. Without that, he might never have made it and would have been condemned to a relatively modest life of live performances in pubs, folk clubs, and local community halls and the occasional appearance on BBC Radio 4.
A year before his death, Nick’s mate John Martyn dedicated Solid Air to him, a song I find incredibly somber.
(A thousand apologies to everyone for posting the full lyric—please scroll on if it bothers you.)
You’ve been taking your time
And you’ve been living on solid air
You’ve been walking the line
And You’ve been living on solid air
Don’t know what’s going wrong inside
And I can tell you that it’s hard to hide when you’re living on
Solid air.
You’ve been painting it blue
And you’ve been looking through solid air
You’ve been seeing it through
And you’ve been looking through solid air
Don’t know what’s going wrong in your mind,
And I can tell you don’t like what you find,
When you’re moving through
Solid air.
I know you, I love you
And I could be your friend
I could follow you, anywhere
Even through solid air.
You’ve been stoning it cold
You’ve been living on solid air
You’ve been finding that gold
You’ve been living on solid air
I don’t know what’s going on inside
I can tell you that it’s hard to hide
When you’re living on
Solid air, solid air.
You’ve been getting too deep
You’ve been living on solid air
You’ve been missing your sleep
And you’ve been moving through solid air
I don’t know what’s going on in your mind
But I know you don’t like what you find
When you’re moving through
Solid air, solid air.
I know you, I love you
I’ll be your friend
I could follow you, anywhere
Even through solid air.
You’ve been walking your line
You’ve been walking on solid air
You’ve been taking your time
But you’ve been walking on solid air
Don’t know what’s going wrong inside
But I can tell you that it’s hard to hide
When you’re living on
Solid air, solid air.
You’ve been painting it blue,
You’ve been living on solid air
You’ve been seeing it through
And you’ve been living on solid air
I don’t know what’s going on in your mind
But I can tell you don’t like what you find
When your living on
Solid air, solid air.
I know you, I love you
And I’ll be your friend
I could follow you, anywhere
Even through solid air.
Ice blue solid air
Nice blue solid air.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UikPQOaJpfU
John Martyn himself was condemned to a relatively modest life of live performances in pubs, folk clubs, and local community halls and the occasional appearance on The Old Grey Whistle Test.
Another notable thing about Nick is that he was the little brother of the actress Gabrielle Drake, who is still very much alive. She was the “posh” beauty who is perhaps best known for wearing purple hair and manning the defenses against the alien invaders on the moon base in Jerry and Sylvia Anderson’s U.F.O.
That doesn’t surprise me. I promise that I had all his albums (thanks to my brother) long before Pink Moon, the song, was featured in a popular indie movie about 20 years ago, and then whoever owns his estate further sold out to Volkswagen as VW piggybacked on the sudden American hipster discovery of Nick Drake because of the movie and also featured Pink Moon on one of there commercials which became an iconic commercial. Poor Nick.
Thanks for that additional info. Will go listen to Martyn’s song now.
The usual MO . First give higher figures and claim a new peak then revise downwards .
https://xcancel.com/ekwufinance/status/1997729128607322551#m
Forecasts are based on hoped-for production. If it doesn’t really appear, then production falls. Something similar has happened with employment estimates.
Does that mean it wasn’t sour grapes on my part and I was right that the new absolute peak last month was BS?
I’ll add something to Art’s take. I think the public got wise to the virtue signaling by those promoting renewables.
https://www.artberman.com/blog/the-sunset-of-the-renewable-dream/
The latest from Art Berman: “The Sunset of the Renewable Dream”
Excerpt: The energy transition is collapsing—not in headlines, but in economics. What began as a hopeful vision for a cleaner future has become an economic bust.
The failure is global. COP30 exposed the widening gap between climate rhetoric and political will. Six EU countries now want to abandon the 2035 engine ban to save their auto industries.
The underlying problem is simple: the economics of wind and solar unravel once you ask them to behave like real power plants.
Overall, I think it is an excellent article. He makes the point that renewables are collapsing, which is an important one.
One thing Art didn’t mention is EROEI and the very closely related “energy payback period.” As far as I am concerned, EROEI doesn’t work for wind and solar, but erroneously suggested very good indications for wind and passable indications for solar. But the calculation was for a bit of intermittent electricity that was of little true help to the system.
I am not convinced that the calculation could be fixed. A more complex calculation, taking into account the true cost is needed.
energy, in whatever form it takes, only has value when it is used to make thing that can be bought and sold—ie rendered into cash.
Yet the myth persist s that our problem is in getting hold of ”energy”.
when in fact the problem lies in that ”energy exchange” in order to create wages.
That was where wages (in a modern context) came from in the first place.
digging stuff out of the ground and turning it into money.
Good point!
Just as beauty is in the eye of the beholder, so value is shaped by individual perception.
I value energy in the form of a sunny day or a starry night, neither of which can be bought and sold or rendered into cash directly.
However, the tourist industry could be said to be in the business of selling sunny days and starry nights indirectly.
The Duran’s boyz lastest issue on “Preventing empire collapse”..
Links British 1890s policy-proposal (and later partial adoption) parallels to current US shift of policy. British empire dissolved in ~1950s.
My musing, nowadays the world lives at least 2-times faster pace hence ~25yrs of projected-estimated remaining run time for the US.. Yes, seems too optimistic far fetched for us doomers – yet “delays” are the rulez of the game of history. Strangely it fits the narrative of certain regular commentariat member at Surplus with so far good predictive power. Hence ~2045 threshold here we come..
PS if we live comparatively at 3-times faster pace then even ~2035-40 boundary could be possibly attacked..
empires last only as as long as the surplus enegy that created them lasts
UK hit peak coal in 1914
the British Empire finally petered out 50 years after that.
US peak oil conventional was 1971 . So + 50 years is 2021 . About time as already past expiry date . My personal belief is the USA collapsed with the GFC in 2008 , since then it is the printer that has kept it afloat .
Yes, but than came the extenders (Alaska, NorthSea, ..), followed by few outliers around the world and finally the fracking period. And voila decades fly fast in the rear view mirror..
In terms of printer – only now we are perhaps at the cusp of foreigners set to seriously limit that [ sync-print ] aka the real onset of collapse perhaps looming over the horizon.
i agree
thats why i pitched mid 2020s as the tipping point into final collapse.
Even so, I never imagined the don’s antics would be so chaotic.
How do empires fall? Not because of war, but because of unbalanced minds disconnected from reality. − The Vigilant Fox on “X”
”world and finally the fracking period. ”
Shale was nothing but an exchange of ” worthless greenbacks for low EROEI ” energy . That is why the shale players are $ ” 350 – 500 Billion ” in non-repayable debt . Not possible without the money printer . Alaska etc barely covered for the decline rates in other areas . 2008 when the energy failed and 2025 /2026 when the printer failed . I agree .
Not “money printer.” Fraudulent debt bubble backed by barrel and cubic foot production.
They will come up with more extenders probably Venezuelan shale
unbalanced minds cannot accept the reality of depleted resources.
The Empire’s fall was caused by Chucky and his 200/400 Worcestershires.
If Chucky ran at Gheluvelt, there would still be a British Empire today.
I loved the move Threads, which was a happy movie for me, since the ending of movie signified that there would be no more hard-lipped British doing ‘their duty’ anymore.
without chucky, it would have lasted forever, long past the last ounce of coal was used, perhaps using a cubic mile of something.
Indeedm no Chucktly, no Easter Uprising which was the beginning of the end of the British Empire.
You thought Treads was a happy movie?🤣🤣🤣
Yes. The brits reaping what they had sown.
In war, the innocent suffers alongside the guilty.
Innocent?
The kind of people who voted for Brexit?
If they want to be innocent, the Trafalgar Square and the Waterloo Bridge have to be demolished and the people of Great Britain have to repent the screwups they have caused for centuries.
But Brexit showed they have no intention to do so they are not innocent.
The video is at this link.
https://youtu.be/9_vA0ZAuoFg
They are discussing the recent US policy shift, away from Europe. If Europe wants to fight Russia or China, it can do it without the direct assistance of the US. The US will sell weapons to Europe, but that is all. The US now sees that its powers have limits. It is aiming to live within those limits.
Those in power have come to realize that resources have limits.
In the latter part they mentioned Chamberlain (the father) – nowadays forgotten figure – who proposed several policy measures in the 1890s to extend the run of the empire..
in 1895, the ‘Berlin Conference’ divided up Africa between the European states, supposedly to prevent fighting over it…
That caused chaos we are still living with.
And why Africans are now washing up on the shores of Europe, demanding a share of the loot we took
It’s unbelievable! Europe has completely given up. The US is withdrawing to collect the peace dividend, and Europe undoubtedly needs to somehow close the gap. But the idea that we have to buy weapons from our already overstretched budgets, but they are new and with this we will finish off our neighbor, is just crazy. They have lost control of themselves.
Of course, with the conclusion of peace in Ukraine, the representatives of this policy must abdicate. Zelensky could never have waged this war without support.
The support was probably illegal. The approval of the syringes and the lockdowns were probably illegal. The Green Deal is not working. The migration is not working.
If those responsible fly out of positions, then it will be for a very long time, they know that. They have suppressed all diversity of opinion in the parties. When the paradigm shift comes, thed have no one credible who could represent it.
Wrong management, lost everything in gambling and getting drunk in the pub.
Piggyback on Reante’s meat evaluation-surprise post few pages back..
Mountain lion is indeed a big frame animal.. for us little sub-continent-ers there..
https://www.americanscientist.org/article/americas-cat-is-on-the-comeback
https://westernhunter.net/tactics/mountain-lion-hunting-how-why-when-and-where/
Great articles, especially the one by the hunter. Good info in there that I didn’t know. I don’t believe in hunting with dogs myself, regardless of his legitimate arguments. I think it’s big time cheating just from an existential perspective. Guns are more than enough cheating already. Shooting a trapped cougar out of a tree takes zero skill. If you’re not man enough to shoot a cougar toe to toe then just leave it alone. And I say that even though “Where The Red Fern Grows,” about raccoon hunting with hounds, is one of my favorite books of all-time. I just look at from the outside and don’t like it. But I see the inside beauty. My dogs, OTOH, defend their own territory from cougars that come onto their territory in order to eat the livestock they are charged with protecting.
Cougar hunting tags are readily available around here. Because of the healthy population, I believe that they’re always included in the multi species sportsman’s package. Taking one isn’t common and it’s always an opportunistic shot that does take one. A friend got one a couple years ago out in the hills. I’ve gotten two on my place. One was on top of a fresh killed goat 15 feet from me as I entered a clearing. The goat was a straggler from the day before that didn’t rotate down the hill with everyone else, and I was coming back for it. The cat didn’t move off of the goat, just watched me. I pulled out my folding knife and picked up a stout stick and thought about it for a minute. Then I thought better of it lol and went to the gate down the hill where the dogs were barking. The cat was hungry enough to not leave the goat until the dogs were close enough that it had to climb a tree on my property instead of being able to reach the fence and jump over it. And it was skinny, a 95lb female. I was able to sling it over one shoulder and get down to the truck. Both cats were in the first two years of getting the dogs. Hasn’t happened since though we occasionally do lose an animal. About once a year. The dogs are only human.
About India’s marriage pattern in the old days
The famous Bengali director Satyajit Ray, who was born and died at the city of Calcutta (I do not use the ridiculous new name Modi assigned to that city. It sounds like some cheap knockoff of Coca Cola),
directed the Apu trilogy, perhaps the first movie from India to earn international acclaim.
Based upon some stories by a Bengali author who died in 1950, the Apu trilogy tracks the life of Apu, an intelligent but very poor boy. In the third installment, Apu has to quit his studies because he doesn’t have the fund to finish his education. He became something of a secretary to a guy named Pulu, a wealthy guy who works for the colonial government.
A relative of Pulu (i.e. wealthy) is to be wed to a ‘suitable boy’ and Pulu invites Apu to the lavish wedding. During the ceremony the would be groom suddenly develops a mental illness, and begins to act insane.
Since Apu was not in the class to be associated with Pulu’s people Apu was sleeping in a nearby ditch. He knew he had no business marrying since he didn’t have any money to pay a bride’s family.
Because the bride’s mother insisted the wedding had to be held no matter what because of some religious restriction, Apu , who didn’t have a rupee in his pocket, becomes the groom.
Although he knew nothing about his bride, since he had no chance of getting married at all on his own, he does cherish her but she dies not long after giving birth to a child.
he leaves and wanders around India , while Pulu and the woman’s family are doing their best to dump the child on Apu’s lap, despite of the fact that Apu was penniless.
Since by that point of time Satyajit Ray had been praised by the Hollywood types, and having visited there, he has a hollywood style ending, but in original bengali book, Apu, having no means to support the child, dumps the latter to a friend and leaves India. The child probably died in the Bengal famine of 1943, about which Satyajit Ray also made a movie called “Distant Thunder”, whose original book was written by the same guy who wrote the basis for the Apu movies.
A Suitable Boy, by Vikram Seth who is also from Calcutta, tells the marriage of the heroine in post-Independence India. Long story short, although the heroine Lata *and many supporting characters) go through a bunch of love interests , in the end Lata is wed to Haresh, a shoe shop owner who was able to pay the bride price which was rather high, and everything goes back to order.
I don’t know what is the custom of Aravind’s region but at least in West Bengal that was how things were done in the old days.
Rich men find it a lot easier to marry than poor men pretty much everywhere, I expect.
A Suitable Boy is indeed a very long story that goes on and on and on, and even the paperback version is about three inches wide.
The population of Bangladesh alone (which is only a part of the historical Bengal) is currently over 170 million. It was 42 million at the time of the Bengal famine of 1943 (which killed between 1 and 4 million), and 76 million at the time of the Bangladesh Famine of 1974/75 (which killed between 1 and 1.5 million).
We can all be grateful to George Harrison for stepping in and organizing a concert, divided into two shows, to raise money for UNICEF and bring the terrible problems of Bangladesh to the world’s attention in 1971, as it fought for independence from Pakistan. But despite the participation of Dylan, the Stones, Ravi Shankar and many other stars, the situation in Bangladesh actually got worse in the following years for several reasons, and the catastrophic flooding of 1974—not caused by climate change or global warming incidentally, but just weather—became the straw that broke the camel’s back, so to speak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tby39qh9Lts
The concert for Bangladesh became the inspiration for the Live Aid and Band Aid concerts in 1985, to help address the famine attributed to the drought in Ethiopia—which incidentally, was also not caused by climate change or global warming but just weather.
Like Bangladesh, but with even more fecundity, Ethiopia has gone on to more than triple its population since the famine of 1983-85 (which killed between 300,000 and 1.2 million) from 41 million to 135 million now.
What can I say?
“Imagine all the people, livin’ for today”?
“One death is a tragedy, a million is a statistic”?
“Be fruitful and multiply?”…..
Not quite.
“Bangladesh, Bangladesh / Where so many people are dying fast / And it sure looks like a mess”?
That’s more like it.
No. hang on.
“The world today has 6.8 billion people. That’s headed up to about nine billion. Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines, health care, reproductive health services, we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent. But there, we see an increase of about 1.3”?
Bingo!
The bane of Indian society is the dowry system, where the girl’s family faces an enormous financial obligation to the bridegroom. In fact, that’s why there is this illegal practice of gender identification of embryos and subsequent elimination of the girl child. Scanning during pregnancy to monitor the child’s health is perfectly legal and necessary. But revealing the sex of the developing embryo by medical practitioners is outlawed and illegal. Despite that, there are hundreds of private labs (mostly in north India) that would do that.
Marrying off a girl is the primary financial burden of traditional Indian families. Just do a simple search for dowry in India. And another search for the opposite phenomenon of bride price. The latter is confined to certain tribal groups, mainly in the north-east and east (Calcutta is in the east, almost as far removed from my place as London is from Kiev). Please do not generalise stuff. Bride price is a rare exception in India and is not prevalent among the general population. It is totally unheard of in my home state of Kerala. I don’t know the “going rates” for dowry, but I have heard that a typical middle class girl here being married off would be given at least 101 sovereigns of gold (808 grams), a car and cash and sometimes a house, not to mention a wedding ceremony involving hundreds of guests. This practice has resulted in a substantial number of not-so-well-to-do families falling into debt traps. In short, it is the fear of dowry that primarily causes female foeticide (and infanticide).
The skewed sex ratio is not because of the opposite phenomenon of bride price. Bride price is not a mainstream thing. So, an Apu doesn’t represent “India” any more than a Jean Valjean or a David Copperfield represents “Europe”.
A woman is more valuable than a man, can self reproduce with multiple options for initiation.
Men have few options. It is biology.
Dennis L.
Than a woman that can’t produce has no value? That sounds like monkey talk
He thinks Newton was worthless since the latter did not reproduce.
dennis
at birth, a female has a fixed number of eggs within her body—probably 40/50 at most.
a male manufactures sperm on a daily basis, therefore can, in theory, father 000s of children.
Making it up as you go along again.
“The statement is false. A female is born with a finite number of eggs, but it is significantly more than 40 or 50. At birth, a female typically has between 1 to 2 million eggs in her ovaries.
This number declines continuously throughout life due to a natural process called atresia, where eggs are lost each month.
By puberty, the count drops to approximately 300,000 to 400,000 eggs.
By age 40, the number is estimated to be around 5,000 to 10,000 eggs, and by menopause, fewer than 1,000 eggs remain.
Therefore, the idea that a female has only 40 or 50 eggs is a significant underestimation.”
apologies
i should have clarified the term to viable eggs.
ie, having the likelihood of prodicing offspring…only one mature egg is released during each ovulation cycle, the rest die off.
post natal–a woman might have 2 years of lactation, which inhibits eggs release.
you should cease your dancing up and down now because of my error—you might do yourself a mischief.
This will be tomorrow’s headline in the Sun, the Mirror and the London Standard:
NORMAN PAGETT APOLOGISES
First Time Ever?
Read All About It! 🙂
Norm apologized to me a couple days ago. Real or not real? 😀
That was good natural law work Norm. A hunter gatherer woman on a paleo diet and a five-year lactation might reasonably be expected to drop only 40-50 mature eggs by my math.
Kerala and Tamil Nadu were not part of India until the Brotidh Raj so they developed differently
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T19NRaNEM8o
I Exposed the Islamic Takeover of the UK
I only watched part of the video.
Everywhere in the world, if new groups migrate, they often settle together in groups. Doing so in the UK would be similar. It is hard to believe that this is happening all over in the UK, but it certainly could be happening in select locations.
The Middle East has experienced an explosion in population, with the higher oil production starting in the 1970s, falling back for a while when prices were low, then rising up until about 2016 – 2018. The job situation is not good in the Middle East, however, and some places, like Yemen, are particularly in bad shape. It is not surprising that people want to migrate to somewhere else. The UK would seem to be a close by area, with a reasonable climate and perhaps some jobs. So I could see this happening.
The UK has been taking in people from a lot of locations. India comes to mind. Muslims, in many ways, don’t seem to be bad people. I can see why local authorities might prefer Middle Eastern Muslims to people from central Africa. But I can see that it might get to be a problem for schools.
Usually, immigrants are expected to take on the culture of the new country. This doesn’t seem to be happening quickly in the UK.
”Everywhere in the world, if new groups migrate, they often settle together in groups. ”
Why is this surprising ? Humans are tribal by nature . Birds of a feather flock together . In KSA they have gated communities for the US workers . In India my contacts in Bangalore and Hyderabad say that the foreigners have their own ‘ white only ‘ meetings . Nothing new . How many interracial marriages as a percentage of total marriages ? Very few .
”Usually, immigrants are expected to take on the culture of the new country. ”
It is a wrong expectation . Period . Disappointment is bound to happen .
Assimilation may be slow. When there is “not enough to go around,” it is easy to blame the newcomers.
There may not be a lot of interracial marriages, but there certainly are a lot of interracial children. The parents may not have married, but they at least temporarily got together. Every time I go to the grocery store, I see children who are clearly of a different race than the parent who came to shop. Or I see two parents together of different races.
I know a couple at my church whose daughter married a Muslim man, in this past month.
There can also be strong feelings against intermarriage and having children out of wedlock. I know a woman who was thrown out by her parents because she had a baby out of wedlock by a dark-skinned man. I believe the parents of the woman who was thrown out were immigrants from Eastern Europe.
all hysterical BS—as is usual from certain quarters on OFW
my town has 185000 people’ I was born here, so I know it well.
We have a couple of streets which you might say are muslim dominated, maybe 2 or 3 afro caribbean the same. been like that for 50/60 years now. our local chinese takeaway has been here for 50 years.
we have no ghettos, no sharia law, the police go about their business unarmed and generally unmolested.
Ethnic people do tend to congegate together, for lots of reasons. they have their ethnic stores because they prefer their own foods.
Having said that, there are different people scattered all over, no racial violence, nobody yelling racist or homophobic insults anywhere, no riots or violence—in streets, shops restaurants—i have gay neighbours, afro caribbean neighbours, couldn’t wish for better.
all governments come in for criticism—goes with the territory—but we have no goon squads, in masks, rounding up anyone with a less-than-white complexion, on a cash bonus basis, neither does our government strip university funds for ”saying the wrong thing about the dear leader”.
illegal hate speech?–certainly, that was brought in as a blanket coverage because social media was exploding it beyond reason.—as with every similar measure, it can go to ridiculous lengths and interpretations.—that can’t be helped.
Social media has stripped reason and common sense from our social fabric, hence the OFW tales of ”millions of people lying dead in the steets” re covid a while back. I was assured it was ”all true”
It was all BS.
To the person who likes spouting about “BS” (I find his obsession with scatology a bit concerning), the film was not about Afro-Caribbeans and Chinese, who integrate well into British society. It was about a minority with a very different culture becoming a majority in large areas. Something like this happened in Fiji when the ethnic Indians became dominant, then Fiji stopped being a democracy. Nothing wrong with Indians, of course – that seems just to have been human nature in action.
Think about the Islamic attitudes to women, for instance, and how they square with attitudes in the UK. Years ago at work, I heard an Indian-born Muslim man boasting that his English-born daughter was now 19, and he’d told her that he thought it was about time she got married. He mentioned that he’d introduced her to a male cousin as a prospective husband, but somehow she didn’t seem keen and he couldn’t understand it!
Unwillingness to upset certain minorities has led to tragedies like the UK grooming scandals. If we’d had true non-racial meritocracy and justice in the UK, these would have been exposed far earlier. In this documentary, Tommy Robinson exposes the official attitudes that lead to these situations. Put aside any preconceptions about Tommy Robinson, as you may be surprised.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0z7rVP2glk
Silenced — A Documentary by Tommy Robinson
lol
Ol Tommy has just included godbothering in his political rant—-now where did he get that idea from i wonder?
Though I agree that there are incidents of mysogynous activity here—as there are everywhere.
These get headlines—from which Tommy draws his mob fuel.
Whatever wrongs there are in our UK society—and there are many—you can be sure that Tommy has no interest in correcting them on behalf of the community as a whole.
His intent (his sudden affinity with the almighty proves it)—-is purely the acquisition of power for himself. He is an opportunist—nothing more.
He sees it working for Trump, (as does Farage)—it is a well tried political formula—demonize others—then put yourself forward as the only one who can fix it. If god is on your side—so much the better. (do you really believe he’s a godnut??)….lol….
Not that expect your thinking to work it out. Nevertheless, that is the overall intent. Do ttry to understand whats going on.
You have brainwashed yourself into believing this biased C thea-awry. So I’ll leave it at that.
i just had to be absolutely certain that you think robbo has your best interests at heart
lolololol
Norman, try to remember that the small time crook, picked up and put on an imaginary pedestal by the kiddies killers, purely to do their bidding(no coincidence that his marches always have lots of Star of Remphans flying), is named Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon and anyone who calls him Tommy Robinson is basically spitting on each and every grave of those that gave their lives(they should learn some history).
He claims to be fighting for this country, but he recently visited occupied Palestine and when one of the kiddie killers told him England has a special place in hell, he sheepishly looked at the floor and said not a single word in defence of the nation he claims to defend(video did the rounds and all the union jack waiving morons were apoplectic when the true scared little boy was revealed). If you get a chance to see it, take note when he eventually whimpers a few words and you’ll understand why I say scared little boy.
He’s a spineless fraud and anyone that can’t see that is probably not suitable to be left in charge of a plastic knife without donning body armour and a crash helmet.
I bet his followers nod along, whilst drooling when reading this kind of thing(if you look, sit down first and take a deep breath, it’s somewhat crazy, to put it mildly).
https://barsoom.substack.com/p/the-simp-rapist-complex?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
basically—i’m too lazy to type out his full name.
so robbo is sufficient—and like all wannabe tyrants, he’s in it for ‘self’ alone.
those who think he’s fighting for ”their cause” are being childishly misled.
you can see the same thing throughout history–its all on record and checkable—and repeats endlessly in different nations….different names—supposedly different regimes—at different scales.
but all identical in purpose.
”i will be safe–he only wants get get rid of undesirables”
well—in their book, everyone is an undesirable—i’ve seen and heard it in RL exchanges, foolish (yet otherwise intelligent) people convinced that he has the interest of the nation at heart—but he s a mini-Trump, intent only on self interest.
i can only hope that the British people will give him the Mosley treatment—remember him before WW2?—spouting off PRECISELY the same hate speech against ”others’—running a gang of thugs to do his bidding.
Mosley, a corporate fascist, who was chased off by the working class, the Tommy Robinsons and that is my point. If you go back about 50 years before Mosley, you find throughout Britian and Europe the rise of working class movements in all fields, not just politics.
Corporate power could not accept this and so plans were enacted to not just stop, but eventually erase all understanding of these movements and what/who they really stood for.
The promotion of their fascist(corporate) place men, to do the deed, should be obvious to anyone that looks beyond the dull fiction they attempt to spoon feed us as history.
Amazing really, the abusers taught the abused to fear and hate anything that could free them from the abuse and even more amazingly, to blame the most needy, those with absolutely no ability to enact change, for problems that are the outcome of the abuse they so willing take.
Get the laziness, but every repetition is a reinforcement of the lie.
You could call him gobbo and I’d doubt anyone in britian would be unaware of who you mean. There’s also a whole section of four letter words that appear written specifically for him. Pointing being, if you were use a clown description(rather than a respectable name) eventually you would hope that people see the clown that’s always been there(possibly hoping for too much).
TheF ool wrote:
“anyone who calls him Tommy Robinson is basically spitting on each and every grave of those that gave their lives (they should learn some history).”
Who are “those”? And which history? Don’t be so cryptic.
“he sheepishly looked at the floor and said not a single word in defence of the nation he claims to defend”
Wrong, he defended the British people but not the British Establishment. Too subtle for you?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5PGmkpDG3M
But do you think he really understands international politics? Does he understand that he was being manipulated by Netanyahu? Probably not. Flattered and naive is probably what he is. He understands his local English situation from growing up in Luton. He’s certainly more patriotic than Netanyahu, who accidentally on purpose left his border unprotected.
As for Palestinians and Israelis, I don’t support either. I’m livid that their squabbles spill over onto our English streets.
Demi, you should be embarrassed to ask about the historical relevance of that particular name(I’ve explained it here before). It should be compulsory reading for all those “defending their way of life”(which would have horrified those that actually gave theirs). Educate yourself.
Your ignorance is a dangerous, but deliberately taught embarrassment and that’s why they employ spineless little worms like Yaxley-Lennon, to play on your ignorance and get you pointing the finger of blame anywhere but where it belongs. If the screen hasn’t completely addled your memory, think back over the last 2 or 3 decades and see if you can remember how many times you were directed to point the finger at various groups(always on the bottom), then come back and tell me how many different groups have been the latest “grooming gangs”(thankfully they never promote the largest known group, or lots of people are going to look very stupid). Then maybe look at that which you were distracted from with the latest witch hunt and you might just get a truer feel for how you ended up here.
An honest finger would point at self.
Yaxley-Lennon didn’t meet Benzion Mileikowsky junior, he just met some sad angry kiddie killers who like him have no power to do anything but whine about a history that they clearly no nothing about(plus rape and kill children, but only if you really, really believe you are chosen). Another moron that passes all blame to the victim. It’s the same well trodden path all morons are willingly led down(after being indoctrinated into the corporate self).
I’ll make it simple. If you want to stop people coming here, hang those that keep bringing them here, very deliberately, en masse. Go on, take your country back, if you have the spine for the real fight and I guarantee you that Yaxley-Lennon hasn’t.
Did you read the article?
It would be truly hilarious, if it wasn’t so sad that anyone could write it seriously.
You most certainly do support one side(what you wrote makes that abundantly clear) and if you understood history, you would also understand where the problem lies*.
Whilst you are learning about names, see if you can get this one correct next time
“TheF ool wrote”
*Start at the beginning, a time no one talks about, as if it didn’t exist.
https://www.aljazeera.com/video/centre-stage/2025/4/10/cs-ralph-wilde-100425
Do you see?
Norman lives in a remnant, 95% white backward town, based on retirees, monied escapees from real cities, education (private schools) , and agricultural workers and services. It’s safe since money makes it that way. If he was to spend any time where the population actually lives (ie cities over 500k) he would be alert to the frictions, especially amongst lower classes who compete for services and jobs. He would see the under 18 population demographics , which as they say , is destiny.
On a brighter note , the UK has a hyper selective position , it’s an island attracting brighter folks mostly, from commonwealth countries. This can be undermined though , by things such as arranged marriages between dirty old men and younger imported wives and certain minority groups stand out for these behaviours. Either way it’s an island , vastly overpopulated and this always results in famine. Guardian readers whilst old and fatty will provide decent long pig style meals and easy to catch with their blinkers, masks and ear protectors , same taste as daily Sun readers if they don’t eat you first. butchers, barbers and kebab making are a great excuse for retaining bladed item skill sets.
So if our oldest commenter doesn’t like a person’s political direction, then he tells us that they are greedy, devious, insincere, opportunistic megalomaniacs. Would you suspect that he has devious ulterior motives for suggesting that? Or would you believe that he is as pure as the driven snow in his motives, just as he believes his own political heroes to be?
when a wannabe politico has to settle a $25m lawsuit before taking office, and brags openly and on record about his own sexual inadequacies, I dont think additional comment from me is necessary
do you?
“when a wannabe politico”, etc. – such context-free meanderings come across as very Trump&Biden-like. And as for mentioning alleged “inadequacies” of a certain ilk, that’s just all too “Fast Eddy”. He clearly left his mark on you.
when someone constantly punctuates his commenting thread with a certain subject, (no need to go into detail)……
you can be certain that is where his inadequacies lie…
I’m from Bethnal Green, once a London borough in its own right and a place with its own legend of The Blind Beggar—also the name of a pub a stone’s through away in neighboring Whitechapel, where Jack the Ripper used to make his rounds. The pub is famous as the scene of the murder of gangster Ronnie Cornel, who in 1966 was shot in the head by a rival gangster Ronnie Kray, one of the infamous Kray twins who went to the same secondary school I did, although they were a generation older than me. Since the 1960s, a part of the borough of Tower Hamlets.
Here’s some demographic info on the borough of Tower Hamlets:
Ethnic & Cultural Makeup (2021 Census)
Asian: 44.5% (largest group is Bangladeshi at 32-34%).
White: 39.3% (includes White British, Irish, Other).
Black: 7.4% (African, Caribbean).
Mixed: 5.0%.
Other Ethnic Groups: 3.9% (including Arab).
Key Characteristics
Birthplace: Nearly half (47%) of residents were born outside the UK.
Religion: Largest religious group is Muslim (around 39.9%), with the smallest Christian population in England and Wales.
Age: Young population, with a median age of 30, and high concentration of 20-39 year olds in areas like Canary Wharf and Whitechapel.
Language: Bengali is a significant language, though English is common; 18% speak Bengali as a main language.
Population Growth
Population grew significantly from around 142,723 in 1981 to over 310,000 in 2021.
So, we are blessed with quite a lot more diversity in Tower Hamlets in than Norman’s hometown. Even back in the 1970s, when the area was over 90% white, it was much more diverse than Norman’s hometown, although in those days the whites were by no means considered to be a monolithic category. There were kids with English, Irish, Welsh, Scottish, and Italian accents in my class. As I went to a Roman Catholic primary school, as many as a quarter of the kids could count at least one Irish parent or grandparent. I myself had some Irish great-grandparents.
I managed to wrangle out of the Catholic secondary school and got into a state-run comprehensive (the one the Krays had attended), and there I found less Irish accents, but plenty of Irish, Scottish and Welsh surnames. And there were also significant numbers of kids of continental extraction, including descendants of Norsemen, Danes, and Germans who had blended in with the mainstream Anglo Saxons who probably constituted the majority ancestors of the English people, and quite a few children of Heguenots who had arrived in the 18th century and of Jews who had arrived in the 19th and 20th centuries also integrated.
But I ramble…..
Some women have chosen not to have children, demographics is related to economics. Young men chase young women, old women mostly knit.
Dennis L.
I just watched a video regarding Indian migration ( internal and external ) . Just interesting to find how Fiji , Mauritius and the West Indies where Indian labour was forcefully sent to sugarcane fields is now the majority . Some other places where they have become the deciding factor in politics — USA , UK , Canada , South Africa — next on the list NZ , Australia . When is a takeover not a takeover ? Makes me go — hmmm . I can post the video if anybody is interested . The discussion is in Hindi but you can dub it in English .
Why Does the End of the World Look So Profitable?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Does-the-End-of-the-World-Look-So-Profitable.html
I’ll let you folks be the judge, incredibly well written article. IMO.
Yes, a very good article indeed, IATM. How did it wind up on oil price ,com I wonder? Whitney Web over at unlimitedhangout has been writing about this for a while. She calls these public-private partnerships. But just like the wealth transfers, these become power and control transfers. The public-private partnerships are only the gateways to total private control. What these private oligarchs cannot do publicly because there might be voter backlash, instead infiltrate the government through bribery, kickbacks, insider information, etc. to create these rogue agencies, which allow them to gain control through the back door. Once they have the public captured and dependent, the “government” and the “voter “will become irrelevant. I Digital IDs, paired with digital health records, and ultimately some form of digital finance control through CBDCs, the latter installed through a circuitous route of tokenization, will consummate the control of us all, unless of course, we know how to grow our own food and become individually self-sufficient, which, for most of us is a pipe dream. The only form of “self-sufficiency” that I can see right now would be our ability to use arms.
Whitney Webb style national socialist article in service of undoing the Hand’s neofeudal misdirection play which is the misdirection play that followed the plandemic-based Great Reset misdirection play. The current neofeudal misdirection play is for herding the Left (on balance), and the Great Reset was for herding on balance the Right. Welcome to the great triangulation of left conservatism.
Difference between:
1. You will own nothing, and be perfectly happy. The few rich will own everything, and rent it to you.
2. You will do nothing, and be perfectly happy. AI and machines will do everything; the government will supply everything you need.
Neither of these will work.
Ha, no, neither will work, obviously, so they’re not going to be attempted. Which begs the question why they are being floated if they are not going to be attempted. The only available answer is, to generate a desired reaction away from the culture of centralization. Which makes perfect sense when complexity is collapsing
I read a book awhile back called “Rise of Robots” or something like that. About automation of labor and the author argued two ways to overcome. One being UBI or course. But another was monthly check via the tech industry because they are collecting and selling so much data for free basically. And that data is priceless to many companies, governments. For example, the reason many apps on your phone are free is because they mine your data and sell it to advertisers and such.
And the author people don’t even realize how valuable this information is. And that was an argument I’ve never heard mentioned.
That theory would imply that the world’s consumers can live off of a small part of the advertising budgets of the producers, which is beyond flat-earthism or simulationism. That world would be like a world with full automation from Free Energy operating on the Minimum Power Principle. Science Fiction Utopianism.
Mass Formation culture.
With respect to moving to AI, a major point is
” a new social contract is required, including adopting a Sovereign Equity Model for government-funded ventures, implementing an automation tax to replace eroded payroll taxes, and moving toward Universal Basic Services.”
Universal Basic Services leads to a situation where no one sees a need to work. It simply is not a solution. It represents the problem that Cuba has had: “They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work.” As long as the quantity of goods and services received does not depend on effort, there is no motivation to work hard. Sleep in; pretend you are sick; do as little as possible.
Already pointed out in Gone with the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
I actually did read that book. At there, Rhett Butler says the time to make the most money is when things go down; he smuggled luxury goods for southern Belles , bringing the latest fashion of London and Paris, and made a huge killing out of it.
It is actually a very good post collapse book. I did not watch the movie, but quite a lot of lessons to be learned from for those who do read it.
Canada may be killing, but Europe is dying!
While in the USSK, it seems you can’t even call someone a faggot these days without getting banged up!
I wonder, does the USSK have a list of actual slurs that are approved for use and another that are forbidden on the orders of Comrade Starmer? And does it matter who the slurs are aimed at?
This is an excellent article in that it got my blood simmering to the point that my lid was rattling but didn’t quite blow off.
Europe is Dying
By J.B. Shurk
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/12/europe_is_dying.html
European civilization is dying. The Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy makes this clear. It has squandered its post-WWII economic and military assistance from the United States by investing in centralized, socialist bureaucracies and expansive welfare States. By chasing the “climate change” con as a means for European governments to justify total control over the drivers of economic growth, European nations have forsaken cheap energy exploration, private entrepreneurship, and technological innovation. By depending upon the United States to defend its territorial interests, European nations have destroyed their military capabilities.
In an effort to “juice” their economies with cheap labor and artificial demographic growth, European nations have opened their borders to tens of millions of foreign immigrants. The natural result is that foreign cultures have steadily eroded and replaced millennia-old European cultures without much resistance. The Trump administration believes Europe could be effectively “erased” within twenty years.
When living things die, they tend to lash out. Europe is no exception. Its political elites have decided to pretend that everything is okay and that the continent remains the life-force of the entire world. In order to buttress this delusion, European governments have embraced censorship and State-approved propaganda on a scale as obscene as anything that might occur in communist China. Controlling the “narrative” and silencing dissent are the last gasps of every civilization on its deathbed.
Every day some new horror story emerges from the United Kingdom in which an ordinary citizen is treated as a terrorist for merely expressing an opinion or defending a personal belief. A recent example involves thirty-four-year-old mother of four Elizabeth Kinney. It appears Kinney and a former friend were texting about a male acquaintance who had allegedly caused Kinney harm, and she called that man a “faggot.” The former friend reported Kinney to the authorities because the “abusive and homophobic text messages” caused her “alarm and distress.”
While Kinney was naked and in a bathtub, eleven police officers forced their way into her home and arrested her. Kinney burst into tears as male officers denied her any privacy, and a female officer informed her that she was being arrested for “malicious communications and hate crime.” “The Crown place this offense in the highest category of its type due to the effect related to sexual orientation and the greater harm because it had moderate impact,” prosecutors insisted. Kinney faced ten years in prison, but her attorney begged for leniency. She has been ordered to perform seventy-two hours of community service, attend ten days of rehabilitation, and pay a fine of several hundred pounds.
All rights are property rights. The “lesson” that British authorities are trying to “teach” Kinney and other citizens is this: You do not own the thoughts in your head. You do not own the words you express. You do not own the private messages that you text to other private citizens. When your thoughts, words, and texts violate officially approved government “narratives” and ideologies, you will be punished. Freedom of speech and freedom of conscience do not exist under any government willing to use force to control how citizens think, speak, and text.
In Kinney’s case, British authorities have no problem re-traumatizing a woman who had already been physically abused by sending a dozen cops into her home and forcing her to be naked, vulnerable, and afraid in front of male officers. Instead, the Crown is upset that Kinney used a gay slur to describe someone not even directly participating in her text conversation with another woman. When the State is more concerned about insults to men who have allegedly harmed women than the privacy and dignity of women who have allegedly been harmed, the government is complicit in the abuse of its citizens.
There are only a handful of reasons this kind of European totalitarianism hasn’t similarly consumed the United States: (1) America’s First Amendment, (2) Americans’ more resilient love for personal liberty and hostility toward overreaching government, and (3) the Democrats’ inability to flood the 2024 election with enough fraudulent mail-in ballots to pull off back-to-back steals. Democrats have been criminalizing “hate speech” for decades. The Biden administration actively censored Americans’ online speech and attempted to erect a permanent “Disinformation Governance Board” within the Department of Homeland Security.
Europe’s totalitarian assaults on free speech are therefore an ongoing national security threat to the United States. “Protecting” people from “hate speech” has always been a government-contrived Trojan horse for censoring dissent and controlling the flow of information.
Right now Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is whining about random Americans calling him a “retard” after President Trump labeled the governor “seriously retarded” in a Thanksgiving post on Truth Social. If Americans don’t vigilantly defend the First Amendment’s protections for free speech, then a future Democrat president will no doubt follow Europe’s example by sending well-armed law enforcement officers to Mar-a-Lago to arrest President Trump for hurting Tim Walz’s feelings. It’s not as if the FBI hasn’t raided Trump’s home with lethal force before.
Europe’s descent into tyranny must be resisted, but a firewall preventing Europe’s tyranny from spreading beyond the ruin of its own continent is essential.
Yes Europe is dying…why would any country want their paper money?!? I don’t understand why China is still paying for it?
Tim both of the Canadian and UK dustopianisms are the Hand trolling/ragebaiting the national socialist vanguard in service of national socialism. The Hand can’t make an omelette without breaking a few eggs. It can’t manifest the Glide Path Option of a nuclear civilization without baiting the character driven political 20pc into activism. Problem Reaction Solution.
Yes, I can imagine your assessment of the game plan to incite the incitable segment into action is correct.
It’s basically the same policy as poking the Russian bear to intervene in Ukraine or prodding lions at the Colosseum or cocks in a ring to fight each other. Or hitting people on the knees with little wooden hammers to make them kick in what’s known as a a knee-jerk reflex test. With apologies to David Icke, it could be described as Provocation, Reaction, Pretex-for-Solution. Or Incitement, Reaction, Indictment.
There is certainly a whole lot of trolling going on these days, everywhere you look in the media. It’s as if they took to heart that old Talking Heads induction to stop making sense.
But this explanation tells me nothing. It doesn’t tell me who is the Hand or why they are doing this or what they aim to achieve by it. Although I have heard the explanation that the Hand is a global elite entity that is creating these various problem scenarios in order to provoke responses that ultimately destroy social fabrics, nation states, and human rights, and lead the entire world into a New World Order complete with 15-minute concentration camps in which the elite does the concentrating and the rest of us do the camping.
Perhaps I am getting too caught up in the movie to realize it’s only a movie?
Here’s the lady who was arrested naked in her bathroom by eleven police officers—ELEVEN!!—for calling someone a faggot getting her fifteen minutes (well, 90 seconds actually) of fame in the company of Piers Morgan.
https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1996242718876373122
Remember when our British bobbies were wonderful? I can’t imagine Dixon of Dock Green crossing anyone’s threshold uninvited or arresting anyone for calling other people rude names.
Funny. I like your programmatic descriptions better than Icke’s.
It doesn’t matter which humans comprise the Hand. Names wouldn’t tell us anything more than no names, since knowing the name of someone we’ve never met before doesn’t gain us anything. It’s the circumstantial fingerprints that matter.
The Hand is doing it in order to fashion a new culture that’s better adapted for Collapse than this neolib/neocon culture. And it does it by inducing mass formation behavior in the two directions it doesn’t want society to go. Liberals activists are exhibiting an induced, broad spectrum mass formation behavior. MAGA is exhibiting an induced, broad spectrum mass formation behavior. The inducement, as always, is political power. It’s entrapment in service of a process of elimination.
That’s a very good explanation.
You see things more clearly than I do, perhaps because you are younger and more in tune with the nuances of Western and particularly American politics and society. (We oldsters and expats tend to get more isolated and out of touch as we loose both our sharpness and our interest in broader current events.)
But I think I can see almost in realtime how the appointed and anointed leaders of both the woke folks and the MAGA folks are destroying their chances of furthering their respective agendas by speaking and behaving in unreasonable ways, in a sort of theater of the absurd.
The agenda is going to be imposed by the Hand despite whatever political theatrics may ensue, and yet the pretense of democratic politics must be maintained as both a charade and as a way of lubricating the agenda as it is maneuvered into place, as too much active opposition by an angry population could severely inconvenience the powers and complicate their work.
By the way, who would have thought that Norman would have ever found himself in agreement with both DJT and MTG? Yet he now agrees with what Marjorie thinks of Donald and what Donald thinks of Marjorie.
Great stuff. There’s no doubt that it helps to be in the belly of the Beast. I also think it helps being a herder of livestock. I feel like you’ve only gotten sharper since I’ve known you. We all should be getting sharper within limits, given the amount of time we put into this hobby.
Perhaps the step away from religion in much of Europe is being replaced by a new ultra-liberal view of how a person is expected to behave. A new version of having men dressed as women read four-year olds books in Libraries.
That is Stalinistic behaviour from the authorities in my country, Britain. What the hell is going on? ELEVEN police officers, for goodness’ sake, harassing a naked woman. That is a crime in itself. Those police officers should have arrested themselves.
Norm should be worried about the beam in the UK eye, rather than the speck in the US eye.
trump and his aficionados desire only one thing…
power and wealth for themselves..they have no concern whatsoever for you and yours…
they are all tarred with the same brush—the only difference being in the size of the brush
but its beyond the scope of my limited intellect to open your mind to that reality..
Regardless of poor motives, if Trump can keep the US away from collapse a few years more, perhaps by pushing the first collapse to Europe, he will have accomplished something.
Even motives which seem terrible can work for the collective good.
Most of Trump’s aficionados are ordinary working- and middle-class Americans who desire to return to what they feel is a normal society with a bit more security and safety, the sort of affordable and efficient healthcare that people in most industrialized nations (although not in the UK) take for granted, and freedom from the crushing weight of debt and fear of impending bankruptcy, penury, and homelessness they are under.
You have referred to such people as “Maganuts”, which is a derogatory term that can cause offense to people who wear red baseball caps. Don’t be surprised if eleven coppers break into your castle during your monthly bath, haul you off to the nick, and seize your rubber duck as evidence of your hate-crime.
Trump was evidently in direct contact with construction job foreman for large part (most) of his adult life..
He knew /is aware of many of their grievances in terms of living standards for their crews.. which in effect tend to hinder Donald’s core biz and profit margins in case of late or sloppy job..
After about 27 years (!!!) since the start of the constuction works in 1998, they are finally opening a 7,5 km long motorway tunel in my part of Slovakia. It is almost unbelievable…
Such is the impact of the increasing complexity during the last decades.
Many governments have changed since the start of the works, and this tunnel has become a symbol of the physical limits like the rock it is carved through.
https://youtu.be/dRPZrPtntjo?si=f_RUHX_ytI4tfZUq
Congratulations, MG!
In my neighborhood it took 20 years to finish a project to construct a 320 m long tunnel that finally opened in 2016. Makes your local tunnel seem like a rapid project in comparison.
Tim, how many trolls were displaced? How much peace and quiet removed? The age of tunnel boring is done. In our new low energy world we have time for the land and its spirits.
I live in a very quiet rural area that is emptying out population-wise due to it being an inconvenient place for modern people to live in. This was a totally unnecessary tunnel. Even today, it only gets about 5 to 10 vehicles an hour passing through. I think the deer, boar and bears get more utility out of it than the humans do. Perhaps the trolls will also make use of it one day and charge a toll on travellers.
When visiting Norway, I was amazed at the number of tunnels needed to travel through the country. I could see why road taxes needed to be amazingly high. The population needed to be encouraged to take trains. It simply becomes too expensive to build and maintain lots of tunnels.
Perhaps fitting in here..
TSLAs semi truck factory is to be churning these electric monsters starting next spring.. In a way it’s a copied concept from existing bullet trains in terms of both aerodynamic shape for large cargo-passanger compartment tucked behind, as well in terms of hi-efficiency AC drive-train power system.
The specs are crazy each truck stores in batts almost 1MWh of energy..
Perhaps this could delay / offset diesel shortages a bit.
People reject new cars and their complexity
https://www.trend.sk/spravy/ekonomicka-realita-zasiahla-slovakov-krajiny-je-coraz-vacsie-vrakovisko?itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_modul=trend_topbox&itm_position=5
DeepL translate:
The vehicle fleet is aging, sales of new cars are stagnating
Car manufacturing is a major industry in Slovakia, but domestic sales have not yet recovered from the crisis that began with the COVID-19 pandemic.
As a result, the car fleet is aging. The average age of cars owned by individuals has increased from 13.3 years in 2017 to the current 15.6 years. One in four cars is over 20 years old, and hundreds of thousands of vehicles manufactured in the last century are still on the road.
No problem. Ladas are plentiful and well priced. Easy to repair and rugged.
The US Department of Transportation has a graph up on its website.
https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-trucks-operation-united-states
The average age of passenger cars keeps rising, and seems to be 14 years. The average age of “light trucks” (SUVs) is a little lower, about 12 years. US policies (and profitability) have encourages a shift from passenger car to light trucks.
Meanwhile, former vice-president of Pfizer’s allergy and respiratory research unit and now retire pharmacologist Mike Yeadon—another purveyor of misinformation according to the honest folks at Wikipedia, has progressed from COVID denier to virus denier to DNA denier to evolution denier to now literally jumping the shark and becoming a dinosaur denier.
Well, paleontology has always been about bones of contention, but I studied geology and evolutionary history decades ago, and it all seemed to add up into a credible consistent whole to the extent I could grasp it. I readily admit that nobody since Fred Flintstone has ever seen a dinosaur, and that reconstructing what they may have looked like based on the traces they left behind in the fossil record is an exercise in creative imagination. But I have always thought that the evidence for their existence, collected and interpreted over the course of more than two centuries, is on pretty firm ground. So, as I see it, the no dinosaur hypothesis takes us well into flat earth territory.
Does this mean I am going to have to dive down yet another rabbit hole in order to reassess what is known about dinosaurs, or can I let this one drop as irrelevant to the current situation? If I have to delve, just to make sure, I find 18th and 19th century science and natural history texts a lot more interesting than anything produced in the 21st century, so at least I will enjoy reading and re-reading some of the old classics.
A veil falling
This monumental deception, extending back in time for over a century, classifies in my mind as not only psychopathic but evil. It was this conclusion that led me to revisit my casual discarding of my feelings of awe that I remember having as a child and had somehow been left behind.
I am now aware of the presence of God, for which I need no further evidence. This is a personal relationship, and it is so apparent to me now that I have no more need of justification for these feelings, this conviction, than I do about any other happenings in and around my own body.
I extended my searching for what else the perpetrators had deceived us about. I came across extensive evidence that there has been coordinated lying about a number of fundamental issues which all relate to origins (of the universe and of humans).
For example, dinosaurs are a hoax, sorry. Nobody more disappointed than my young self, crafted, I suppose, in order to extend the fiction of a long period of complex life back hundreds of millions of years.
It also underwrites the theory of evolution, which I was always publicly sceptical about, even as a commercial research scientist. I don’t have a problem with adaptation, which is not very different from livestock breeding. It’s creating completely new structures and species that I never believed could possibly happen vis the same process, no matter how long a period of time was involved. The lack of intermediary forms in the fossil record is, in my opinion, conclusive evidence that we did not come to be here in this way.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-178590128
As the grandparent of a soon-to-be four year old, I am amazed at the extent to which dinosaurs are represented in children’s clothing wear, story books, and Halloween costumes. Young children know the names of many different kinds of dinosaurs.
I keep wondering: Is all of the dinosaur stuff intended to make it clear to children that the myth about the earth being created 6,000 years ago cannot be true?
People have always explained new situations in terms that the hearers could understand. It should not be surprising that the oral myth that is written down in Genesis (and the short genealogies given) cannot possibly explain precisely what happened.
kids love stories about huge dangerous critters who can’t really hurt them.
been like that since my kids were little.
i suppose young minds might be bent by young earth nutcases, bit like santa claus really, doesnt take long to figure out whats real and what isnt
There you go again! “Young earth nutcases” is a potential hate-speech term.
Referring to individuals who believe in a young Earth as “young earth nutcases” could be seen as derogatory although it might not necessarily reach the threshold of illegal speech unless it incites hatred or violence against a protected group. Additionally, whether this constitutes hate speech can depend on the context in which it’s used.
Keep using terms like this and you may well find yourself having hours of fun talking with the nice policemen about whether your use of language that incites hatred against particular groups based on characteristics such as race, religion, politics, sexual orientation, or disability can be considered illegal.
Maybe thorium can be made to work in reactors.
https://www.powermag.com/chinas-molten-salt-reactor-reaches-thorium-uranium-conversion-milestone/
China’s Molten Salt Reactor Reaches Thorium-Uranium Conversion Milestone
China’s Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics (SINAP) in November reported it had achieved thorium-to-uranium fuel conversion inside an operating molten salt reactor (MSR). The milestone provides the first experimental data from thorium fuel loading in a liquid-fuel MSR and advances validation of the thorium-uranium fuel cycle, the institute said. . .
China’s Three-Step Pathway
For now, China’s TMSR-LF1 remains the only operating reactor demonstrating continuous thorium-uranium conversion under real irradiation conditions (Figure 4). According to Chinese publication ThinkChina—though unverified by POWER—China’s plans will reportedly follow a three-step development pathway. After running the 2-MWth experimental reactor, which has now achieved thorium-to-uranium conversion, to gather key data, the second step involves building a 10-MW small modular demonstration reactor by 2029 to verify commercial viability and establish core infrastructure supply chain capabilities. The third step targets construction of 100-MW power stations by 2035, enabling large-scale application in thorium-rich regions such as Gansu and Xinjiang while spurring development of equipment manufacturing, molten salt materials, and related industrial clusters. CAS has said SINAP will work with leading energy companies to consolidate the TMSR industrial and supply chains and “accelerate technology iteration and engineering application.”
For China, MSRs represent a particularly promising platform for thorium fuel utilization. MSRs, fourth-generation advanced nuclear energy systems that use high-temperature molten salt as a coolant, “possess inherent advantages such as safety, waterless cooling, atmospheric pressure operation, and high-temperature output,” making them “internationally recognized as the most suitable reactor type for the nuclear energy utilization of thorium resources,” CAS says.
Given that there were no physics roadblocks, this is not surprising. It is not like fusion.
So, back to the question about liquid fuels. If we were to have these SMRs with Thorium…. could we use the process described in the last OFW article to create the energy profile we need from methane? Diesel and Kerosene is entirely possible to derive from methane (apparently)… if there is plenty of electricity to drive the required processes.
Not quickly, for certain, and probably not cheaply.
Another section in the same article I linked discussed the issues with scaling up thorium and the reactors that would be used. It sounded like the process would be slow and could be quite expensive, unless there are a lot of breakthroughs.
Generally speaking yes, I see no roadblocks here either. The limits are the structural materials being resistant to high temperatures while remaining strong enough.
How are the rebel alliance doing these days?
Dr. John Campbell, BSc, MSc, Ph.D, who noted these days as a major misinformation spreader, promoter of misleading ideas, quoter from non-peer-reviewed articles, and a creationist by the notoriously unbiased and totally reliable Wikipedia, has a new video out looking at how both the US and UK recommended daily allowances for Vitamin D have been set at over ten times too low, despite this being established and well known to the relevant governing bodies for over a decade, and that as a result, people who follow the RDAs are likely to be chronically deficient and sick as a result.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtoxkK7MeKc
Neither John nor I are medical doctors—although he’s a dab hand with a first aid kit—but if you live more than 50 degrees from the equator and your own doctor isn’t recommending you take 8 to 10,000 IUs of vitamin D daily in the winter months and getting plenty of summer sunshine to top up your reserves, we both agree that you may well need to fire your doctor.
Living in year round sunny Florida helps with the vitamin D.
Individuals vary widely.
A sun lamp producing adequate UV may be better than just D3 tablets. Finding one is difficult.
If one looks at a map, China, Japan and the USA are *much* further south than Europe. So they get more solar radiation than I do, living at latitude 52 N.
I have been convinced that Western medicine routinely damages people’s health for profit reasons, since 2015, when I read the largest meta analysis on cholesterol, that proved that higher cholesterol leads to higher life expectancy.
This (vit. D) is one of many examples ( I take closer to 3000 IU per day, about once a week. your mileage will vary) but there are others. Statins, promoting vegetable oils, imposing lifetime diabetes type 2 drugs on naive patients. and of course vaccines of all sorts.
Yes, I agree with you on all the points you’ve mentioned.
For some more sensible talk and useful information on vitamin D, here is 17 minutes of Dr. Rhonda Patrick, who is, let’s face it, a bit more photogenic than Dr. Campbell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpFOA1AUFCk
“Vitamin D is far more than just a vitamin—it’s a potent steroid hormone regulating nearly 5% of our genome. Yet, remarkably, up to 70% of Americans aren’t getting enough, placing them at increased risk for dementia and Alzheimer’s disease. In this video, I explore compelling new evidence from a study involving over 12,000 participants, demonstrating that vitamin D supplementation can reduce dementia risk by an impressive 40%, protecting even adults with genetic Alzheimer’s risk (ApoE4 carriers).”
Thank you for your work, the data tells the story better than words can. I have been warning my family for over a decade that their future will depend on how sucessfully they interface with their local community, exchanging vital goods and services. Depending on large corporations and government for one’s livelihood at this point is a foolish gambit.
You are welcome. It can be a difficult idea for people to understand.
I try to tell my family they just think I am a paranoid doomer; I try and warn people that their pension plans could be in jeopardy. So far they are right and I am wrong
Things will continue until they can’t.
Also of interest for dual citizens in the USA, one of many ruses that will be used to stop capital flights. This one will not pass, but surely they will try again. Of course an exception will be made for the chosen people.
Correct drb , not something to worry about with AIPAC and Indians etc at the helm . Low in the order of issues to worry about . This guy is in the category of ” Canadian prepper ” . File 13 ( Dustbin ) .
actually I think h is right and that within 5 years it will be law. with exceptions.
I thought the video was interesting. It is hard to imagine that the proposed legislation would pass in its current form; the speaker, who is a lawyer, raises excellent points about the precise wording being wrong. But the overall idea may be something people will be considering in future years.
Continuing on my previous comment, there is also a media storm in th italian press about the upcoming US-EU divorce, with attendant displays of EU pride, whatever that might mean. Davidina is going to be hard pressed to comment that it is BAU as usual. To recap:
1) US-EU divorce
2) New repo crisis
3) Unstable precious metals markets, with possibility of collapse in early spring (due to the nature of paper contracts, I do not understand all the details)
4) Trump running to China to ask for trillions of Treasury purchases, after China was already stiffed in 2008 when it did buy, IIRC, 900 billions (the USA then proceeded to print its way out, devaluing China’s asseta)
5) USA getting its ass handed to it in Venezuela.
This on a background of continuing global dedollarization, with Shanghai apparently becoming what Chicago used to be, that is, the global center for commodity trading. I think we got plenty on our plate for this month’s thread.
How exciting…Bingo…pop the popcorn…
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/wJSZqSfloEE
This is a recent Kevin Walmsley post on the subject of the Shanghai becoming the center of commodity trading.
https://kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/china-finally-takes-over-global-commodities
There is also a video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnyoVArTg2g
Yanis explains the importance of the liberation of Odessa.
OK. But a highly intelligent orthodox friend of mine here says this is all a ruse to depop Ukraine to make room for the new Israel (which is on its last legs, the current one). This is why Odessa is so important to me to gauge Russian’s geopolitical future and to some extent also its future internal structure.
drb , you and me know the importance of Odessa to Russia . Old wine in new bottles . The video is AI generated as is indicated on the right hand corner . It is not Yanis but still I agree withe the commentary .
Yes it is AI, but it is getting harder to detect. In another year or two I imagine it will be near-impossible.
you guys are smarter than me. I had not detected it.
“This is why Odessa is so important to me to gauge Russian’s geopolitical future and to some extent also its future internal structure”
Do you remember Putin’s statement about the squatters being basically Russian?
I’d keep your focus on that “future internal structure” as it’s not beyond imagination that they will be taken into an expanded Russia, only to do what they always do. If you’re going to take them in, that place that’s already designated for them should be their only option(preferably in chains).
Did you see that Kushner was involved in the last trip to Moscow? His only credentials are that he is Chabad. So this (the end of the war) is a Chabad project. I was talking to a local politician a week ago and the discussion drifted to Eurasian geopolitics. He started bitching about Iran, and stopped when I reminded him they are our close allies (a clear sign of chosenness). This is the same admin which injected millions with contraband Astra Zeneca vaxxes sold as locally produced, back in 2021 (info from same friend as above, who is in the medical biz). I will believe it when I see it.
Kushner. Yes that raised an eyebrow, but I initially put it down to nepotism.
You are probably correct that he had a more specific role.
The summary under the video says:
In this gripping 32-minute exposé, economist and geopolitical analyst Yanis Varoufakis delivers a razor-sharp analysis of the hidden strategy behind Russia’s dramatic military and economic moves in 2025. While the world applauds the collapse of Russian presence in Syria, Varoufakis argues this so-called defeat is nothing more than a strategic decoy. The real target? Odesa — the Black Sea jewel with the power to redraw global energy corridors, grain routes, and the very balance of European security.
With unmatched clarity, this video unpacks:
Why the fall of Damascus was a tactical retreat, not a loss
How BRICS and the Global South are quietly shifting away from Western dominance
The catastrophic failure of Western sanctions
The terrifying implications of a Russian-controlled Odesa
Why the West may already be too late to stop the economic and strategic realignment of global power
If you’re tired of media narratives and ready for a cold, honest examination of power politics, energy leverage, and military repositioning — this video is your wake-up call.
Russia uses strategy. Ukraine really needs Odessa as the key to Black Sea. It is important for the future of trade from Ukraine.
By pulling back from Syria, Russia is enticing the West to step in. But this is a poisoned chalice. It is a temptation for the West to spread itself too thin.
Russia has evaluated what it reasonably can accomplish. . .
Odessa is as Russian as Aberdeen is British. Or Gibraltar. Or the Falkland Islands!
Indeed, Odessa is more Russian than London is British these days. 🙂
If the Russians were to conquer Ukraine, treat Zelensky like the English treated William Wallace, hold a successful referendum to unite Russia, Ukraine and Belorussia—which they would easily win by throwing in higher pensions for every babooshka—and call the expanded country Ostroslavia, how could the British object?
You missed an important part of the video description:
“Disclaimer: This video contains analysis and commentary on global events using AI-generated voice and content. It falls under Fair Use for purposes such as education, critique, and public discussion. This is not official government or news media output. All opinions are hypothetical and intended to foster informed dialogue.”
— The whole video is AI, it’s not really Yanis. There are similar AI channels that purport to be Mearsheimer, Macgregor, etc.
These are the three laws of thermodynamics:
1. You can’t win.
2. You can’t break even.
3. You can’t stop playing the game.
send some copies of that to the maganuts
No amount of fact can convince the delusionists who think energy is brought in for free by energy fairy.
+ 1
But isn’t the future always like the past? Many people think so.
Which is why we are in this mess. Instead of producing a long term solutiom they rely on fantastical, nonexistent techs
“Noting this means that no way exists to transform today’s set of living arrangements for most of Western civilization into something workable for the long term. All efforts to make today’s way of living “sustainable” is truly illusory because the entire system still rests upon the foundation of technology use. In other words, unless and until humans realize that our behavior of using technology is the root of our unsustainability, no true progress can be made.”?
https://problemspredicamentsandtechnology.blogspot.com/2024/03/whats-hyperobject-and-why-cant-we.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
“ For instance, another article I wrote is titled, How Bad is Pollution Loading? In that article I detail how we are losing our ability to reproduce, meaning that in about 15 years or so we will be functionally extinct. “?
https://erikmichaels.substack.com/p/newsflash-predicaments-are-not-problems
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbwZwkcAdp4
New IPO Moore Threads receives 4.5 trillion dollars of bids on its opening offer. They are the Chinese company to replace NVIDIA as Trump does not allow US company NVIDIA to do business in China.
Good find . The crazies have taken over the asylum .
Right down BRICS alley?
The new CEO is a former VP of NVIDIA, helping China build its own version of NVIDIA inside China.
No, it received some bids at that valuation, but I don’t think anyone paid that share price or if someone did, it was for a small number of shares: the actual IPO amount raised was 1.2 billion at a valuation of 17 billion $.