Tag Archives: fossil fuels

Too many promises; too few future physical goods

The world is filled with financial promises, including loans, pensions, and even the market value of stocks. So far, the system seems to be working, but in a finite world, it is hard to believe that the system will work indefinitely. Governments can create money simply by adding more promises, but they cannot create goods and services in a similar fashion. Continue reading

Posted in Financial Implications, Planning for the Future | Tagged , , , | 1,375 Comments

2024: Too Many Things Going Wrong

In 2024, the world economy is acting more and more like an 80-year-old man than like a young vigorous economy. Perhaps the economy can continue for quite a few more years, but it increasingly looks like it is in danger of falling apart, or of succumbing as a result of what might be regarded as minor problems. Continue reading

Posted in Financial Implications, Introductory Post | Tagged , , , | 2,922 Comments

Can India come out ahead in an energy squeeze?

The slower the growth, the more sustainable an economy is over the moderately long term.

Energy consumption and the use of complexity tend to rise together.

Too much complexity can lead to collapse.

In general, the most “efficient” economies can be expected to do best.

Over the long term, all economies will collapse.

There have been shifts in which economies get a major share of available energy supplies. Shifting patterns are likely again in the future.

India may come out ahead in an energy squeeze because its warm climate and conservative culture allow its energy consumption per capita to remain low. Continue reading

Posted in Energy policy, Financial Implications | Tagged , , , | 2,991 Comments

The World Economy Is Becoming Unglued; Models Miss Real-World Behavior

A common belief is that if the world does not have adequate energy, the result will be high prices. These high prices will allow more fossil fuels to be extracted or will allow renewables to substitute for fossil fuels.

In my view, the real issue is quite different: Inadequate energy supply of the types the economy requires can be expected to affect the economy in a way that causes it to become “unglued.” The economy will gradually fall apart as infighting becomes more of a problem. Goods won’t necessarily be high-priced; many simply won’t be available at any price. Political parties will fragment. Conflict within countries, such as the recent Wagner conflict with the military leadership in Russia, will become more common. Continue reading

Posted in Energy policy, Financial Implications | Tagged , , , | 3,059 Comments

How Energy Transition Models Go Wrong

I have written many posts relating to the fact that we live in a finite world. At some point, our ability to extract resources becomes constrained. At the same time, population keeps increasing. The usual outcome when population is too high for resources is “overshoot and collapse.” But this is not a topic that the politicians or central bankers or oligarchs who attend the World Economic Forum dare to talk about.

Instead, world leaders find a different problem, namely climate change, to emphasize above other problems. Conveniently, climate change seems to have some of the same solutions as “running out of fossil fuels.” So, a person might think that an energy transition designed to try to fix climate change would work equally well to try to fix running out of fossil fuels. Unfortunately, this isn’t really the way it works.

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Posted in Energy policy | Tagged , , , | 3,781 Comments