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Summary:
- Today’s financial system allows many promises of future goods and services. These include debts, pensions, and even prices of shares of stock.
- However, the quantity of actual physical goods and services that can be produced appears likely to be shrinking in future years because of resource depletion.
- This mismatch means that many/most of these promises likely cannot be paid as promised. The economy will somehow change to match what is actually available. We should not be surprised if, one way or another, we receive much less than has supposedly been promised. Even if a high currency amount is provided, it likely will not buy very much. Or a new government may be in power, with virtually no promises of benefits.
- Today’s economic system requires both increasing energy supplies and increasing debt to function properly. We are now encountering limits with respect to both world energy supplies and US government debt. The parts of the world economy that are most affected by limits will likely begin to contract soon.
- We don’t know precisely how this contraction will take place, but we can examine a list of countries whose GDP has already been contracting to see how they are faring.
- Perhaps we need to be relying more on our families and/or on “villages” made up of extended relatives or friends for our long-term support, rather than on government programs.
Introduction
The world is filled with financial promises, including loans, pensions, and even the market value of stocks. So far, the system seems to be working, but in a finite world, it is hard to believe that the system will work indefinitely. Governments can create money simply by adding more promises, but they cannot create goods and services in a similar fashion.
We know that actual physical materials are needed to make the goods and services that people depend upon. Energy supplies are particularly important in making goods and services because, according to the laws of physics, energy is required to produce physical goods and services. Forecasts that support current financial promises ignore the fact that we live in a finite world. Eventually, we will run short of easy-to-extract essential materials, including fossil fuels, uranium, lithium, and copper. Economic growth will need to be replaced by economic contraction.
In this post, I will try to explain the situation in more detail, together with some charts showing what is going wrong now, such as Figure 1. In some ways, we already seem to be reaching limits to growth.
[1] At first, added debt is helpful to an economy.
In some sense, added debt pulls an economy forward.
As long as there are plenty of inexpensively available resources and not too much interest to pay, added debt seems to make sense. It pulls the economy forward, in the direction that those resources are to be used. It “feels good” to the recipients of the goods and services made possible by the debt. People like the homes and cars that added debt makes possible.
Ordinary citizens have clear limits on their credit card debt. The limits on government promises seem to be hidden until they are actually reached.
As long as an economy is growing, that growth seems to hide many problems. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff are two well-known US economists. In a 2008 working paper (p.15) examining 800 years of government debt defaults, they remarked, “It is notable that the non-defaulters, by and large, are all hugely successful growth stories.” Without “hugely successful economic growth,” it is impossible to keep adding debt and repaying it with interest. The growth allows debt to be paid back with interest. It allows the fiction that an economy will continue to grow, and this growth will provide the margin needed to repay the debt with interest.
While the world economy has been an amazingly successful growth story since the industrial revolution, we now seem to be running short of the inexpensively available fossil fuels that have made economic growth so far possible. With this change, the economy is likely to start a major shift from economic growth to economic contraction.
We don’t know exactly how this shift from economic growth to economic contraction will take place, but we can hypothesize that the economies that have recently been growing fastest might be farthest from contraction, and the economies that are already struggling with low growth might be the ones most likely to slip into contraction. The countries slipping into contraction can be expected to have special difficulty repaying debt with interest and meeting other financial promises. Some governments may even collapse, perhaps in the way the government of the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
[2] Not too surprisingly, given the physics connection stated in the introduction, total world GDP and world energy consumption are highly correlated.
In fact, the growth rate of energy consumption and the growth rate of GDP are also correlated, as can be seen from the similar patterns on Figure 4.
A scatter diagram of the X-Y data used in Figure 4 gives the result shown in Figure 5:
Figure 5. Three-year average growth rates are used for stability. Energy growth rates are based on energy data from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute; GDP growth rates are based on GDP in constant 2015 US$ as published by the World Bank.
[3] A major issue is the fact that the growth rate of world energy consumption is trending downward.
Figure 6 shows a big upward bump starting not long after the year 2000, driven by the addition of China’s inexpensive coal resources to the global energy supply. The low-cost portion of China’s coal resources is now mostly depleted. In addition, we don’t seem to have any other energy sources that will be available in large quantity in the near future. We have been adding wind and solar, but their impact has been small. Their impact is reflected in the total energy increases shown in Figure 6, and in the other charts above.
[4] Even worse, the rate of growth of world energy consumption per capita is trending downward. In fact, if the trend line were extended to 2025, it would seem to indicate contraction in per capita energy supplies.
We know that it takes energy to make physical goods. Even services require some level of physical goods and energy, such as a building to perform these services, electricity to operate tools, and the materials needed to make any tools, such as computers or scissors.
On Figure 7, note that the trend line is dropping below 0% in 2024, and even farther below 0% in 2025. This means that a smaller energy supply is available, relative to the population. If less energy supply is available, fewer physical goods relative to the population are likely to be available, as well. No one announces this, but we see the impact in many ways. For example, we discover that our daily newspaper is no longer being delivered. Or we discover that the products we see in stores are becoming increasingly flimsy. Meanwhile, young people are becoming less able to afford cars, homes, and almost everything else.
Furthermore, with limited total energy supply, international fighting about physical goods becomes more of a problem. The place we see this first is with respect to minerals. With limited energy supply and ores that are increasingly less concentrated, it is becoming difficult to extract enough materials such as uranium, rare earths, and platinum to meet the needs of all countries. Prices may temporarily spike, but they do not rise high enough, for long enough, to allow production to rise to the overall needed level.
[5] Falling interest rates push the economy along; rising interest rates act like putting brakes on the economy.
Interest rates play a far greater role in the economy, and in economic growth, than many people would expect. Falling interest rates between 1981 and 2022 greatly supported the economy (Figure 8). Since 2022, higher interest rates have acted like a headwind to the economy. This is a concern when it comes to the possibility that the economy is heading into economic contraction because of an inadequate supply of low-cost energy.
Another piece of the picture is the effect of the “yen carry trade.” It allows international investors to borrow money at low rates in Japan, and invest this money in the United States and other countries at higher rates. The yen carry trade has been supporting international borrowing, but it now seems to be at the edge of unwinding because Japanese interest rates are now higher. With this change, it is more difficult to borrow yen at a low rate and invest the proceeds elsewhere at a higher rate. The unwinding of the yen carry trade could push US interest rates up, regardless of what the Federal Reserve tries to do.
[6] Interest payments on US government debt are already getting to be a problem.
US government debt is now close to $38 trillion, and total interest payments have recently risen because interest rates are no longer near zero. Total payments now exceed $1 trillion per year.
The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is now concerned about the high level of interest payments. When interest rates were very low in the 2008 to 2020 period (Figure 8), it was possible to add debt without substantially raising the amount of interest to be paid. But now, with higher interest rates and the debt balance increasing, interest payments have become very high, to the point where they even exceed defense spending. It becomes difficult to raise taxes enough to cover both interest outlays and other funding shortfalls.
I talk more about some of these issues in post called “Energy limits are forcing the economy to contract.” Clearly, if the US economy is being forced to contract, it is very difficult for it to be a hugely successful growth story.
[7] Which countries of the world seem likely to be most resilient against energy limits?
If we believe Reinhart and Rogoff, the countries that would be most resistant to collapse would be the countries that have been growing most rapidly, in recent years. Figure 11 shows a listing of the most rapidly growing countries during the 2019 – 2024 period, based on World Bank GDP data.
The only country on Figure 11 that is an “Advanced Economy” (member of the OECD) is Ireland. Ireland is known for its pharmaceutical exports and for its unusually low taxes on corporations. Many companies choose to domicile in Ireland to take advantage of the country’s low tax rates.
All the other countries are, in some sense, “less advanced economies.” Wages are likely lower, giving them an edge in extracting resources and in manufacturing, and then selling the goods to more advanced countries. Some of these countries may have been given loans by the IMF or China to help them develop their resources.
China and India are both known for their coal use; historically, coal has been an inexpensive energy product, allowing countries to make goods inexpensively, for export. The only country listed whose growing GDP is based on oil extraction seems to be Guyana in South America. Its oil extraction started very recently.
On Figure 12, the list of shrinking economies reads like a list of sad situations that we have read about in the news, way too many times. Many of the countries have recently been in wars or similar situations. None of the countries are Advanced Economies. A few of the countries (Iraq, Libya, Trinidad and Tobago, South Sudan, Venezuela) are oil producing countries.
With respect to the list of slowly growing countries, shown on the right side of Figure 12:
- Austria, Czechia, Estonia, Finland, Germany, and Japan are all Advanced Economies with inadequate energy supplies of their own.
- Puerto Rico is an island territory that has recently had debt problems.
- Thailand is, in some sense, a dropout from the rapidly growing nations of Southeast Asia. My impression when I visited Thailand earlier this year was that a great deal of overbuilding had taken place. Excuses for more debt had mostly stopped.
- Argentina is an oil-producing country with difficulties.
- China tightened its grip on Hong Kong in 2019, leading to much slower economic growth. Presumably, there were underlying issues that caused this tightened grip.
- South Africa has both coal supply problems and inadequate water supplies.
[8] What lies ahead?
I think that we are already in a world of “not enough to go around,” because resource limits are leading to an inadequate supply of finished goods and services for the world economy as a whole. Some countries are already being squeezed out, particularly the countries listed as having “shrinking GDP” in Figure 12. I expect that, over time, an increasing number of countries will be added to the shrinking GDP list. The outcomes may be as bad as seem to be happening to the economies that are shrinking today.
History shows that governments of shrinking countries tend to be overturned by their citizens, or they may collapse on their own. If collapse happens in either of these ways, governmental promises of pensions, and of guarantees on bank accounts, are likely to disappear. Even if the current governments can be maintained, countries will be forced to cut back greatly on the programs they are providing. Pensions may be cut, or they may be inflated away by hyperinflation.
Some governments today talk about possibly introducing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). If these currencies are implemented, I would expect that they will be used to ration the increasingly limited supplies of goods and services that are available among their populations.
I do not expect that there will be a formal World War III. Instead, I think the United States is already in a cold war against practically every other country because there cannot be enough goods and services to go around. The US can’t go into a formal war against China because it provides parts of the supply chains for many essential goods the US uses today. Even Europe is a competitor for essential goods. For example, the less oil Europe uses, the more oil will be available for other countries.
While new technologies such as artificial intelligence and energy recovery may eventually alleviate our energy problems, it is unlikely that such approaches will solve our problem in the near term. As a result, governments are likely to be less able to keep their promises. Historically, families or “villages” of extended kin have provided safety nets, rather than government programs. Perhaps now is a good time to be thinking about how we can move in this direction, as well.
Some people talk about abundance. I don’t know where it comes from, but whatever.
Let’s say by some miracle space riches become online.
Today’s society is winner take all. The gap between the haves and the rest will be something like 100,000 : 1.
The riches of the New World did not benefit the people of Spain at all. It benefited the Spanish Crown , and a few conquistadors, and not much for the rest of country.
The Mesta system, giving priority to feudal ranchers over the general populace, started during the middle ages and continued all the way to 1836.
I once said land reform in Spain did not take place until after 1976 (the Leftist government in 1930s attempted it but was completely reversed by Franco, who was supported by the landowners) and did not end in Andalusia until the 21st century, in 2001.
A certain delusionist once said employees of the tech tycoons will share the wealth. They are treated like no more than ranchhands by the owners, who tend to pay them little and entice them with stock options which can’t be exercised when they are dismissed.
I debated this with Keith, who failed to offer a coherent answer on this question.
Even if the space riches become available it will not benefit most earthlings.
“Even if the space riches become available it will not benefit most earthlings.”
I am afraid you are right.
If nothing else, transmission systems of electricity on earth are very limited, and likely to be so in the future. This limits the ramp up of any electricity based approach.
there are no ‘space riches’
Wealth accrues only when one element is changed into another, and the product of that conversion is sold for cash
That cash has to be exchanged for something else of equel value
And so on
It is critical that this chain of make-sell-buy activity remains unbroken.
If it is broken the system collapses.
If you rely on ‘space aspect’ of that chain, it costs to much to sustain.
It is therefore economically unviable before it starts.
Space economics and earth economics do not mix i’m afraid.
On that Spanish(+Hapsburg relatives) angle, correctamundo !
But they at least commissioned some megasizedchapels and hired talented artists for the interior design-paintings. Comparatively speaking, after many other front running hegemonic powers in terms of legacy – not much to speak about..
At the beginning and at the end of this interview, Col. Wilkerson (USA) tells us about Skideslky and his explanation of the current European military Keynesianism.
Very interesting interview and also substack.
Here you can find Wilkerson’s interview and also an excerpt from Skidelsky’s substack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgTMbRrchsM
“5. Military Keynesianism
The rearmament momentum in Europe has drivers that extend well beyond the stated security rationale of countering Russia. A growing strand of European policy thinking suggests that the rearmament drive serves a second, less openly acknowledged purpose. As Berg and Meyers (CER, 2025) argue, much of the EU’s rearmament agenda is being justified through the language of security, yet in practice functions as an attempt to revive Europe’s weak productivity and failing industrial base—an industrial strategy masquerading as a defence imperative, in effect a post-pandemic and post-stagnation strategy of military Keynesianism. From this perspective, the insistence on an existential Russian threat functions not simply as a strategic assessment but as political cover for a massive industrial mobilisation that EU leaders hope will restore European economic competitiveness.
I agree that Europe needs new sources of growth, but the attempt to smuggle industrial policy in under the banner of a war footing—by cultivating fear and exaggerating threats—is neither honest nor acceptable. Manufacturing a warlike mindset to legitimise economic renewal may be politically convenient, but it corrodes democratic debate and risks locking Europe into a perpetual militarisation that has little to do with Europe’s real economic challenges.”
https://robertskidelsky.substack.com/p/ukraine-the-delusion-of-the-warmongers
https://robertskidelsky.com
Economic revival without rapidly growing sources of cheap energy of the needed kinds doesn’t really work. Adding more debt may seem to work, but it is a false solution at this point. Keynes had great faith in added debt for pulling the economy forward. The problem is that this approach is now failing.
Three Years Ago I Predicted Europe’s Collapse. I Was Right.
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/three-years-ago-i-predicted-europes
Ugo trying to attract attention to himself. Stay retired, Ugo, and perfect your tomato growing skills.
The (retired) Roman Emperor Diocletian preferred to grow cabbages in his retirement fortress estate on the coast of Split in Croatia .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diocletian
Diocletian’s expansion of the army and civil service meant that the empire’s tax burden grew. Since military upkeep took the largest portion of the imperial budget, any reforms here would be especially costly. The proportion of the adult male population, excluding slaves, serving in the army increased from roughly 1 in 25 to 1 in 15, an increase judged excessive by some modern commentators. Official troop allowances were kept to low levels, and the mass of troops often resorted to extortion or the taking of civilian jobs. Arrears became the norm for most troops. Many were even given payment in kind in place of their salaries. Were he unable to pay for his enlarged army, there would likely be civil conflict, potentially open revolt. Diocletian was led to devise a new system of taxation.[283]
At Carnuntum people begged Diocletian to return to the throne, to resolve the conflicts that had arisen through Constantine’s rise to power and Maxentius’s usurpation.[218] Diocletian’s reply: “If you could see the cabbages I have planted here with my own hands, you surely would never have thought to request this.”[219]
Diocletian lived for four more years, spending his days in his palace gardens. He saw his tetrarchic system fail, torn apart by the civil wars of his successors. He heard of Maximian’s third claim to the throne, his forced suicide, and his damnatio memoriae. In his own palace, statues and portraits of his former companion emperor were torn down and destroyed. After an illness, Diocletian died on 3 December 311 (or 312),[Note 12] with some proposing that he took his own life in despair.[220][221]
I think reading this 2002 article by Ugo, now, is worthwhile.
One thing it points out is the extent to which the world overpopulation issue was very much on everyone’s mind, back at the end of World War II. I did not remember the “Morgenthau Plan.” This was a depopulation plan for Germany. It followed Germany’s earlier depopulation plan focused on the Jews. It was parallel to China’s one child policy, which had a similar outcome.
Now, we live in a strange world where talking about overpopulation is close to forbidden. Instead, there is a focus on abundance. All we need to do is allocate better. Green policies will save us.
The point that high priced energy is nearly as bad as a lack of energy is an excellent one, also. US LNG is very expensive, compared to locally produced natural gas. It is even expensive relative to Russian pipeline gas. The fact that the Europe pushed away Russian gas and food left Europe in a terrible spot. Any food and energy that was substituted was almost certain to be more expensive because much more overhead costs was added–longer distance shipping and more intermediaries.
i wrote this in 2018, on the same theme
https://medium.com/future-vision/the-european-union-was-a-construct-of-infinite-prosperity-7a401c225171
the only factot that cant be forecast is the time element.
“Morgenthau Plan” was #1 chiefly about NOT allowing Germany to cause yet another war, although the forcing for all these rehashed conflicts on the continent was more complex than that.
The real babyboom wave came ONLY AFTER the WWII !
So, Ugo is grossly distorting well known facts – should that Gail’s above summary be the gist of his argument.
The Morgenthau Plan was never implemented. Instead, the Marshall Plan, which did close to the opposite was implemented. Perhaps I need to go back and look at Ugo’s article again, in light of this understanding.
Germany was at peak hard coal at the end of WWII. I have seen enough museum photos to believe that getting enough food for everyone was a terrible problem at that time. Without the explosion in fossil fuel use, particularly oil, made possible by the US Marshall Plan after WWII, the problem with inadequate food in Germany would have gotten worse.
ww2 was the first great oilwar.
Oil was public asset in private hands (like coal)— war drove the need for it. As a result, the oil owners got very rich indeed.
When the war ended, oil use, and the profits would have collapsed had it not been for the rebuilding of Europe, which continued to burn oil.
So the oil owners got richer still.
war kills millions, but creates vast wealth for a privleged few.
I’m not sure about the chain of events for that argument.
Firstly, Germany (not starving) conquered Europe from Norway to Greece, plus some temporary action in North Africa .. so far so good. Plus friends and ~allies in IT, Spain etc.
And then they turned East.
Yikes, suddenly no oil (grain, !metals) imports from Soviets anymore.. Plus some pre-existing embargoes via British Commonwealth, I guess the US joined, .. all started to bite cumulatively very hard..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German%E2%80%93Soviet_economic_relations_(1934%E2%80%931941)
ONLY THEN they got real hunger.
This obviously had enormous effect on ALL inhabitants of the continent y/y, e.g. in my family they recall getting UNRRA food / medical – support packages after the war.. It was similar situation under the US-UK-FR occupation zones, and a bit different under the Soviet zone, but I guess they got also some portion of the UNRRA packages at least immediately after the liberation – but halted this for political reasoning next year ~1946 ..
I saw enough photos in a museum in Israel regarding the situation in Germany before WWII that I was convinced that quite a few people in Germany were starving. I also know that Peak Hard Coal was a problem in Germany then. A likely problem with peak hard coal would be a shortage of food. Germans would be reluctant to tell the world about their problems.
There were quite a few people from Germany, Poland, and the areas around there that came to the US at the end of WWII, or perhaps a little later. They didn’t come to the US because conditions were too good in Germany.
Gail, perhaps we ought to better delineate our specific terms and meanings of particular concepts, otherwise it leads to talking past each other..
Was Germany affected after the WWI in terms of demand/supply dis-balance of basic foodstuff, wages etc. and in worse condition vs UK/FR with colonial – foreign trade links? YES
In that period and following two decades towards WWII were there serious – widespread waves of hunger? NO.
In comparison, and apart from say “dust bowl” exception – had US, CAN, AUS farmer problem to feed his 3-5-7x kids? NO
Can we say the same about German farmer in similar setting/time? Most likely NOT – they certainly had to economize – lean living – yet again NO starving proper.
Did Germany import grain from abroad, incl. USSR (in exchange of tech transfer) during interwar period? YES
I don’t get your argument about the end of WWII at all frankly..
At that point hundreds of millions peoplez were affected around the globe, including migratory waves. Europe lacked food. Millions were expelled (and or killed) from German lands during the war.
To claim Poles and Jews left Germany of pre/after WWII times because of hunger NOT because of forced expulsion (extermination raid on them say since early mid 1930s) is a novelty – never heard off.
Except forced expulsion doesn’t happen without internal stresses that push in the direction of forced expulsion.
Low food supply, or high cost food supply, could be one of them. Not enough jobs that pay well. Unhappiness because of wage and wealth disparity. Indirectly, not enough inexpensive energy supplies of the right kind.
We know that governments will never admit to a problem, if there is a different way to “spin” the story. Germany was another example of this.
Reading your comments once again, perhaps when you visiting – talking to Kibbutz people in Israel – it was so much info about short span of 2-3x decades it get perhaps commingled together.
People left for these ~self sufficient communes in Israel even before WWI and several years after the WWII the count of such community-inhabitants was still WAY bellow 100K.
Perhaps, some of them claimed to you based on family history they left even pre-nazi Germany say 1910/20s and recalled some ~lite hungry period there..
But as you see from these numbers, millions expelled on racial grounds / war action vs few dozen thousands settlers is a way dramatic discrepancy. So, the hunger theory is most likely correct only very partially at best..
Trump orders blockade of oil takers in Venezuela | FOX 11 LA
I am fairly pessimist that Venezuela can survive a blockade. Of course they are nearly food sufficient now.
“Cold, Green Europe: What Happens When Ideology Trumps Physics
” … Fossil fuels are the lifeblood of daily life, especially in advanced societies, which cannot run on the wishful thinking of wind and sun worshipers. The stability of European society today rests on the shoulders of American drillers of gas wells.
“The European Union serves as a warning of what happens when ideology trumps physics. Climate mandates cannot make the wind blow. The “green” emperor has no clothes, and, baby, it’s cold outside.”
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/12/16/cold_green_europe_what_happens_when_ideology_trumps_physics_1153445.html
Very nice article. There is a big problem in the winter when it isn’t windy and the sun doesn’t shine. This article says:
Gas storage sites were the unsung heroes of this drama, meeting approximately 90% of the jump in daily demand during a critical week. Withdrawals from storage facilities surged by nearly 450%.
The magnitude of this intervention by natural gas is difficult to overstate. To put the 0.6 billion cubic meters of gas into perspective, consider that the energy equivalent of that amount of gas is the daily output of 220 nuclear power plants – a number nearly five times the size of France’s entire nuclear fleet.
Imagine the catastrophe if Europe had achieved its net-zero goals and eliminated its gas infrastructure. There is no battery system on Earth, existing or planned, that could deploy the equivalent of 220 nuclear reactors.
I saw another article that talked about the exports of electricity from Slovakia being important. This electricity was created by burning lignite (low quality coal).
Yep, several weeks in a row of inversion – no wind & no sun.. and slightly bellow zero temps.. Have not looked at the available internet gauges but assuming “some specific countries” must be currently importing for said renewables generation deficit like crazy.. you get used to it (the craziness) after few yrs lol..
On the Slovak case proper, their numbers tell decreasing net exports, that’s why the bid for enlarging their NPP fleet (to 5x units?) The electricity production and exports are mostly: hydro, natgas, npp, coal is being phased out.. (?closed in q1 2024)..
They used to export roughly ~5TWh per year (but less for 2025).
1 bcm is equal to 35.3147 billion cubic feet (bcf), is equal to 0.83 million tons oil equivalent (mmtoe) or 900,000 tons is equal to 6.1 million barrels oil equivalent..
—
You are currently converting energy units from billion m 3 natural gas to terawatt hour. 1 Gm 3 NG = 10.467 TWh
—
So, if I get the numbers right (energy or power plant production/net conversion?), that Slovak entire yearly electricity export output (2024) would almost cover the current higher non cooperating weather demand as per that article [ .6 bcm ] ..
But as mentioned previously, they are to export less this year, so approx. assessment could be that entire yearly output of say 2-3x smaller exporting countries would be necessary to cover that recent ~short weather event..
Cold, dark and loneliness are no problem! For millennia, people have lived in Scandinavia, Siberia, Canada, Northern Europe and in the Alps. Without TV, lighting, heating, polystyrene, stretched carpet and even without watertight roofs. People can do it, they have it in their blood.
The problem is the economic cycles, the problem is the loss of adapted seed, the loss of adapted animal breeds, the loss of know-how and vitality. The problem is suburbs that cannot be used without a car and supermarkets that are not allowed to sell without the Internet. The problem is overregulation, when someone wants to raise chickens, rabbits or sheep, and property relations, in which the farmer has to drive to his cows for 30 min. The problem is concreted vegetable beds, covered creeks, chopped fruit and nut trees, lack of humus blankets and a complete disinterest of the young people.
And because people have forgotten how to take care of themselves, how to garden, how to cheese, how to smoke, how to milk, how to spin and how to knit, so they have to buy everything. And in order for them to be able to do this, they have to go to work and transport goods, and all this takes an incredible amount of energy.
“and a complete disinterest of the young people.
And because people have forgotten how to take care of themselves,”
agreed
if we dont burn fossil fuels we freeze….
if we do—we fry….
now—as you are a bigger knowitall than i am,….do us all a favour, get down off your soapbox, and tell us what the answer is…
WTI is only about $55 per barrel now. People think that we have more oil than we can use. In a sense, this may be true, in the poor state of the economy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/pump-prices-plummet-ukraine-peace-deal-progress-sparks-oil-plunge
Pump-Prices Plummet As Ukraine Peace Deal Progress Sparks Oil Plunge
West Texas Intermediate oil fell below $55 a barrel for the first time since February 2021, the latest sign that crude supplies are outpacing demand as the market braces for a large surplus, and further helped rising hopes for a potential peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
OilPrice.com’s Charles Kennedy notes that the ongoing talks about a potential peace deal in Ukraine chipped away at a longstanding geopolitical premium on crude after reports of positive discussions and progress made.
Gail writes
“Collapse is not having jobs that pay well enough to keep the system going. There are a few rich people, and a whole lot of poor people. The poor people cannot afford much of anything other than the very basics, if that. ”
Wasn’t it a great religious leader that said “the poor will always be with us” (Matthew 26:11″?)
Throughout the history of human civilization, the population of people with very low wages has always made up the majority of the working age population.
If collapse having a shortage of living wage-paying jobs, then most countries in the world are in a state of collapse and have been in a state of collapse for centuries. Haiti comes to mind.
If a shortage of well-paying jobs could bring the system down, most of America would be Detroit or…any black ghetto.
As a rule of thumb, I think it could be said that most black ghettos and Detroits in America suffer more from social collapse than economic collapse.
In most dirt-poor countries around the world, social ties and bonds are much stronger than in richer ones. The “collapse” they face is mostly economic. There are many politically unstable poor countries but most of the instability seems to be the result of meddling by colonial powers.
The lack of buying power is what investors in developed countries like about developing/poor countries. It means the money they spend can “go far.”
Collapse can only happen if there is some higher state of living to collapse from. If it the norm and has been the norm for thousands of years in some cases, is it really collapse?
You make some very interesting points! Thank you!
No, thank you, you Gail for providing the platform to talk about these issues.
I’m not sure it’s cut and dry what collapse is and what it will look like everywhere since there is quite a bit of variation on fossil fuel use throughout the world.
Collapse will happen when a famine is allowed to happen with no intervention from the international community. No humanitarian aid, no migration, no new loans, no weapons sales.
I really hope this site is not a honeypot for intel gatherings as Jr. the_Returnique said on December 14, 2025 at 7:16.
Much conversation online is monitored and censored even about the most mundane things.
Of COURSE this site is a honeypot. If you hadn’t cottoned to it yet, I’m not just chronicling the DA, I am dictating the DA to the Hand as we go. Lol. Dissident in God mode attracts flies. And rats.
Speaking of rats, there’s the peak oiler sellout Adam Taggart. Gail, do you think Adam lurks here? These are your choices:
Definitely
Probably
Maybe
Probably not
No
Adam is good friends with a certain Brent Johnson. I feel like Brent is probably in the closet too, so maybe it’s just him that lurks here. Whatever the case, Brent the little bitch CEO of Santiago Capital wealth management fund for “high net-worth individuals,” gets the credit for stealing (using without attribution) my whole stablecoin discovery which I’ve been talking about here since late August. At the end of October he released a paper on it and the next week he gave a talk on it at the New Orleans Investment Conference. Then he did an interview on it with Adam.
I once said here that I was disappointed I didn’t figure out the stablecoin discovery sooner given my 6 or 7 years old digital greenbacks prediction, but that I just didn’t know about stablecoins until this summer. In the interview, Brent says he’s surprised he didn’t figure out what the plan was for stablecoins sooner even though he’s known about them since they came out (5 years ago or whatever). I have used both Venezuela and Turkey as examples of high stablecoin usage. Brent uses both countries as examples. Coincidences? Homages? Or shadowplay? You decide. Clearly I’ve already decided lol. Rest assured though that without the incorporation of the DA and peak oil, Brent makes for a poor man’s fuckin reante I’ll tell you that right now. But you decide. Adam and Brent are like two kids in a candy store talking about this shit. The kid in the candy store acts like the kid in the candy store cause he don’t live in the candy store like candyman does. But you decide.
Adam Taggart may read my posts. When he worked for Chris Martenson, he wrote to me or called me, several times, trying to get me to write articles for Martenson.
“..Homages?”
I appreciate your contributions ie. herding the DA critters.
– Josh Wounded Bird
Thanks Replenish lol. And thanks for the reply Gail. Good for you for turning them down. You’re a rare breed.
https://youtu.be/pUPF2SH8bNk?si=EM_FLLq0l2v9dY6b
“I really hope this site is not a honeypot for intel gatherings..”
This site offers good practice. In the beginning 30 years ago, I was leading discussion groups on the Daniel Quinn book, “Beyond Civilization” and activism against municipal corruption when I noticed odd synchronicities, attempts at baiting and some very bad acting. Not until my early 30’s did I accept that I was being monitored by the Feds and groomed for activism.. “recruited by the socialists” as they said at the local field office when I went in to report stalking. Then for several months the theatre included people talking casually about the lofty principles of communism, showing me tattoos of the red star and other nonsense. Since then I quit bad habits one day at a time and shifted to the inner path, the “activity” has decreased while I have made progress on personal relationships, being less disruptive and goal oriented. The bright idea came to me that “they” do overt targeting and leave obvious tells to create leaders with viable contingencies in case their social engineering projects fall short. Trauma-based personality change.. they can do whatever they want to and they want you to know they are doing it. Here you see evidence of this with Ivy League participation in a proposed Greater Reset or anti-lockdown narratives, a slow walk of digital crowd control tech like wearables.. a form of normalization that even the dissidents can accept.
Not being Ivy League material, I don’t think I will never be important enough to be targeted by agents. At most, all I’ve seen are people who take over and control a conversation who are not connected to the people who own a website or forum but have the same opinions.
Did someone say…wearables?
“https://epic.org/wristwatched-a-new-frontier-of-health-monitoring-in-prisons/
“But this service comes at the expense of an incarcerated person’s personal privacy. Plus, the tracking bracelets are hardly a “service” to the inmates themselves—they are rarely optional, and the health information they gather is not available to them.”
Like a lot of modern technology…it starts off optional…until it is mandatory. You start off having access to all the data …and then the technology manufacturers reserve the right to collect data that they do not share with you.
Nice. Daniel Quinn was a big influence on me too. I got my FBI file during Occupy through a combination of being photographed in the streets and the Antifa discussion forums and logistical communications, and whoever the in-person mole(s) was.
Europe continues to shine as a beacon of democracy. Col. Jacques Baud (a Swiss), probably known to most here, was sanctioned today. This means bank accounts frozen (for this Switzerland is apparently part of the EU) and inability to travel into or out of it. Nathalie Yamb (a Swiss Cameroonian) was sanctioned in June and has been unable to access her accounts or travel back to Switzerland. You guys should not have voted Ursula in.
We seem to be in a situation of ever more conflict. I don’t think a different ruler would have made much difference.
Please read . I had no inkling about this .
”The ElectroYuan: How China Hijacked Climate Finance
While the West lectured on governance, Beijing bought the developing world at interest rates no one could refuse. ”
https://www.bullionbite.com/p/the-electroyuan-how-china-hijacked?hide_intro_popup=true
This is interesting. It works based on China’s interest rates being way below those in the US. An excerpt:
China lends renminbi to a developing nation at around 3 percent interest. Way below dollar rates. That nation uses the renminbi to buy solar panels, wind turbines, or batteries from Chinese manufacturers. The infrastructure generates revenue. The debt gets repaid in renminbi.
Notice what’s missing.
Real choice.
A Brazilian solar developer takes a 160 million renminbi loan from a Chinese bank. The terms look beautiful compared to dollar debt. But the money flows directly to Chinese suppliers. The technology locks the buyer into Chinese standards for decades.
And if the project fails, the green loan turns just as sour as any other.
At US interest rates, the projects would certainly fail. They might still fail at Chinese interest rates, but they have a better chance of paying back.
Just thinking . We often discuss ” degrowth ” . Question ? How do we ” degrowth ” an army ? How many do we cull before the enemy overwhelms us ? Of course my thought has always been either ” growth ” or ” collapse ” . Just thinking .
unless i’ve missed something (ever likely)…you can’t ‘degrow’ something that depends on ‘growth’ for its very existence.
degrowth might take time, but degrowth is just another way of saying collapse and disintegration.
Read ‘Ozymandias’ by Shelley:
“My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!”
No thing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.
— Percy Shelley, “Ozymandias”, 1819 edition[16]
intensely moving—to me anyway.
says it all about infinite growth i think.
There are other terms, Norman, for de-growth
like “multi-polar world” where countries you hate for personal reasons, like Russia, have more power
or “the great rebalancing”, where every country fails but it’s not collapse.
https://x.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/1921406158247481687
Look, they aren’t my terms, they are the terms of your fellow liberals, or Democrats who cannot discuss reality in non-political terms. I just saw an article where the author shot down Big Tech’s ambitions for space colonization because
they don’t like billionaires and they think the reasons behind space colonization are “racist”.
guest
i’m colour blind—so i might say pink is grey or vice versa.
that doesnt alter the colour itself.—so i dont argue the point.
same with growth and degrowth—use a different name for it—but its still degrowth, if the progression is in reverse to a previous expansive position.
and reality never or rarely has a political stance.
the average politico promises infinite growth, in order to stay in office….reality says that is impossible.
Ravi,
Open up your third eye and see there is another option “BAU Float”. Little up, little down. Basically treading water.
Without borders you don’t need much of an army. Maybe one. Can you guess who that mayyyy be?
Norm,
“I had a little bird, its name was Enza, I opened the window, and in-flu-enza!”
-Spanish flu nursey song
Degrowth in the army — results . A case study .
The armed forces budget of the Indian army was 75% gobbled up by salaries and pensions and with very little left for modernisation . 3 years back the govt made a new rule for army recruitment . The govt would recruit only 25,000 soldiers per year for a fixed tenure of 4 years . These soldiers would be called ‘ agniveers’ ( soldiers of fire) .After that they would go back to civilian life . Only 4-5000 would get a permanent tenure . Those going back to civilian life would get no pensions , no health insurance or any-other benefit that a regular soldier gets on retirement . The results are now showing :
1 . Demoralisation across the board .
2 . As the older soldiers retire these ” agniveers ” are just killing time because in a year’s time they will join the ranks of the unemployed . The only job openings for them in civilian life are security guards , bouncers or debt collectors . Some trainees who left after only two years have become gangsters engaged in robbery , purse snatching etc .
3 . 4 years is not enough to train a soldier especially in a country as large as India with different terrains . Deserts , jungles , swamps etc ;
4 . Since these ‘agniveers’ will be gone in 4 years the middle rank of officers viz corporals , sergeants have become in short supply as the older retire . No replacement .
This has greatly affected the readiness of the armed forces . The politicians want to wage a war against Pakistan and China but the Chief Of Defence refuses . He is aware of the shortcomings . The result is China now occupies 38,000 sq Km of Indian territory and continues to push for more but the Indian armed forces are in position to repel them .
P.S : Most of the ‘agniveers’ opt for land army and very few for the air force and navy where a higher skill level is needed .
This is not a surprise:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/germanys-municipal-financial-crisis-green-transformation-backfires
As recently as 2023, Stuttgart recorded a record 1.6 billion euros in trade tax revenue—a sum that gave the city extraordinary financial leeway. Social projects, infrastructure initiatives, municipal ambitions—the local government could spend freely.
Cracks in the Model Municipality
Then came 2024. Early cracks in Germany’s economic foundation, building up over years, began to appear in Stuttgart as well. By the end of the fiscal year, the city faced a deficit of 6.8 million euros—a first warning that things might be spiraling out of control.
In green-led Baden-Württemberg, officials explained the shortfall with one-off effects and general problems in the German economy—problems they firmly believed could be managed under the state’s green transformation.
Then 2025 arrived—and with it, shock. Trade tax revenues collapsed, expected to bring only around 850 million euros into the city’s coffers for the year. The supplementary budget shows Stuttgart now faces a deficit of 890 million euros—a fiscal hammer blow, reflecting the massive collapse of Germany’s core industries, including automotive, machinery, and chemicals.
Evolution in action.
From cars back to weapons
https://hnonline.sk/slovensko/96250919-v-dubnickom-zvs-holding-spustili-novu-linku-na-vyrobu-velkokalibrovej-municie-ide-o-najmodernejsie-zariadenie
Deepl Translate: “”The new line will ensure that Slovakia becomes a leader in the number of large-caliber ammunition produced. We will be among the top five in the world and possibly second in Europe. Next year, we will manage to produce one million pieces within Slovakia’s capacity. This clearly shows how we can help the Slovak economy,” emphasized the minister.”
while i sympathise with the Czech motives, and have no doubt that weapons are essential at this time, weapons do not ”help the economy”—-they drain it.
But making weapons employs people. This is why manufacturing weapons works for countries who need more employment opportunities. Governments often find that they can borrow for activities such as these, providing sure funding for the weapons that are made.
yes i know weapon building emplys people.
but when a tank has been constructed, it has 3 possible functions:
1…It can be used to take someone elses resouces.
2…Be destroyed in the protection of home resources
3…Rust away in a field somewhere.
All the above are short term, through obsolence.
Build a Truck, on the other hand, and it grows the economic system by distributing food and other goods for consumption. A tank can’t do that.—it can only consume.
Good point!
Yes, I agree – weapons are likely on balance a major spendy detour – while they often create or modify new overall science / industrial breakthroughs and niches..
But, if a neighbor has a truck and you have a tank, you have a tank and a truck. In the end, everything is short term.
Dennis L.
Might makes right!
you missed the point dennis
a tank uses 4x times as much fuel to go a tenth of the distance and has no cargo space.
ultimately it runs out of fuel and becomes useless.
Apparently delusion makes someone so numb to reality that the person forgets the concept of resistance.
If your neighbor have a tank and he demands your truck you disable your truck and put a grenade to the neighbor’s tank and so both are damaged.
The Taliban showed US weapons are not really that helpful in the mountains.
It’s more like the u.s. thinks technology is the only variable that counts. This kind of thinking should be expected when a military activity motivated more by the personal gain, in the form of political or private sector careers than anything. The troops are concerned with benefits that they hope will substitute for the lack of high-paying jobs back at home. I wonder why most of them didn’t just go into the trades.
Yes, in the context of all living forms dedicating-expending part of their living expenses on necessary protection both passive and active form, you are very correct!
I’m just not sure how humans score in this arena – I’d venture to say the expense is often overdone – siphoned away in political corruption etc.
Norman, from distance it perhaps makes less of a priority to differentiate, but SK has been now separate state entity for roughly three decades.. and also an EU member (“trouble making” now lolz)..
While it’s true according to statistics and historical account, that one of the Europe’s (World’s) largest weapons manufacturer bases placed in Bohemia (Czech) expanded gradually since their joined single state entity CZE ~1920s into Slovakia proper as well.. And especially after WWII completely new modern arms factories have been established.
I guess it has been also in the news very recently that SK govs are successfully luring US investment in nuclear industry to their country – hence Slovakia could be hosting eventually both designs (pre-existing RU) and new US NPPs. Although I assume the US interest (beside a show piece foreign installation) is likely more interested in some further new fuel reprocessing venture, quite possible with other partner there (RU)..
Czechia should be reincorporated into Austria and Slovakia to be reincorporated into Hungary. End or story.
While they often proclaim close cultural ties (do exist) their historical path is quite different at times – historical junctures (CZ/SK).
Roughly after the fall of W. Roman Empire that Bohemian – Czech lands were inhabited by weird mix of residual – remnant Celtic pop (most resettled westwards way earlier), newly incoming ~west direction pressing Slavic groups, and later during medieval period some German realm settlers were officially invited on good terms (trades concessions, lower taxes, land, ..).
Because of combo of difficult hinterland terrain (dense patchwork of hill-mountain castles) and several centuries of coinage metals availability the state was able to fully mature-consolidate and even slightly expand. Very briefly the capital became one of the key European centers (14th and once more later end of 16th century).
It went downhill with the new colonial powers (Spain funded continental ~re-catholic efforts- policy) + advancing tech: gunpowder arms / artillery..
The country was the major looser of that elongated multi-decade mid 17th century continental war saga – as it roughly started and ended there.. Completely exhausted / looted cities and country side, large pop segments incl. elites expelled. While Austria proper lucked-cashed out on its major geo-advantage just blocking few Alpine mountain passes and guarding the remaining low country vectors to incoming warfare.. with way higher success and lowish incurred losses.
Then Bohemia absorbed fully into that Austrian Empire, later upgraded to Austro-Hungarian Empire with even more Adriatic, Balkan and East European associated realm under its wider belt.
This was dissolved only after WWI conclusion as mid-late 19th century efforts for reforming into quasi federation setup (ironically lead often by many of the ~German origins background folk) were squelched by the authoritative single(-dual HU) state apparatus.
In short: “Kulm’s Czechs” are in reality hodgepodge of Celts-W.Slavs-Germans-Jews- various CEErs.. as per the above paragraphs and shown by DNA..
No Czech motives were mentioned – only Slovak ones. Both countries have been independent since 1993.
i can’t spell Czechoslovakia.
But you can rest assured dem, that next time I have a nit infestation, I shall come to you for picking instruction, and if you have the time, a practical demonstration.
Just don’t expect him to pick your nits for more than 5 or 6 or 7 minutes. That’s our evolutionary grooming limit. Grooming’s version of Dunbar’s Number. Also discovered by Dunbar.
Incidentally, do you wear your armband on the left arm or the right arm, reante?
Please tone down your comments, Demiurge!
better than round your forehead like a kamikaze pilot dem
You mean a Jewish armband like they were made to wear? Why would you say that in response to me making an opportunistic cultural anthropology joke, whether or not you mistook it as me siding with Norm?
i will bear that in mind—-normally i have medication on hand for nit problems, but a backup is always useful.
could be a new strain of nits developed by the Chinese to annoy westerners
This all started because I proffered a harmless and simple factual correction to one of NP’s posts. He then made a reply that referenced “nits”, with its connotations of vermin and lack of hygiene. He continued to goad me and gaslight me, until reante joined in to inflame the situation. Yet I was the one who ended up getting the blame for it all, when it was a blatantly Trumpesque example of rabble-rousing and victim-blaming. It would be interesting to learn the verdict of a fair-minded commenter like Tim Groves on all this. 🙁
Somehow, you guys like to play at games like this. I don’t want to be the referee.
You’re off the hook this time Gail. Tim’s been appointed. Tim I trust you to treat the short duration of dem’s grooming fairly. Even if dem can’t pick norm’s nits for more than a few minutes, he CAN fall back on whispering sweet nothings instead. That’s what language was originally evolved for after all. “Slooovaaakiiiiiaaaa nooorrrrm. Sloooovaaaakiiiiaaaa nooorrrrm. Haaaave suuuuum reeeeespect foooor the neeeeoooooliiiiiiberaal orrrrderrrrr.”
sheesh dem
nitpicking is a phrase in common usage—i merely gave it literary expansion through wordplay
“You mean a -ewish armband like they were made to wear?”
No, you’re being disingenuous, of course, reante. I was referring to your strange habit of identifying as a natchie-soatchie. 😉
You keep saying I’m doing things I’m not doing and calling me a national socialist when I’m not a national socialist. And, I didn’t know that national socialists wear armbands, whether on the left or right. Only familiar with Jewish armbands.
“You keep saying I’m doing things I’m not doing and calling me a n. socialist when I’m not a n. socialist.”
Gosh, reante, it seems that I must have remembered it all wrong. Must have been the Mandela effect, you reckon? 🙁
Seems so dem. Over and out.
Now don’t be like that. Millions of people across the multiverse read Gail’s blog, so it’s important to get facts right, and I did correct the wrong supposition in a neutral and caring Cliff Richard sort of way and without venom. 😉
my post was a universal one about building weapons
not about political borders
“my post was a universal one”
Do give it a rest, nitpicker. 🙁
Statue of Liberty in Brazil has fallen.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/i9VbQx_o4Y8
The statue fell during a strong storm.
https://gulfnews.com/world/americas/viral-video-massive-statue-of-liberty-replica-topples-in-brazil-storm-1.500381288
Thank God, for a moment I thought of Charlie Heston back when I watched him …saying damn you
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbBpinyqE-0
Well. I’ll say it….oh, never mind
Generally Zerohedge is not considered to be a serious source for news.
But , like a druggie who would stop at nothing to get his next fix, people desperate to prove their delusions go anywhere to try to prove their unrealistic agenda.
Space is barren. It has no energy, and it is not a place to put things as a lot of things are floating around. Most people do not appreciate that the atmosphere burns down a lot of flying things which bother things in the space.
AI is overpowered search engine. It can replace easier office jobs. it can’t mine or manufacture anything.
Sending pollution to Jupiter is simply not cost effective, although not a problem for delusionists who seem to believe that it is possible to teleport tons of waste to there without major pain.
Ancient narratives are proven and have stood the test of time. Knowledge might be changing but human nature has not changed and will not change easily.
Interestingly , the delusionists here tend to be on the older side, while the younger generation seem to be more grounded in reality. The old delusionists grew up watching Star Wars, etc, and still believe that such world is possible. The younger ones tend to be more skeptical about such possibilities.
Generally kulm… is not considered to be a serious source for news.
😉
Aug 2024, ZeroHedge News:
Are We Headed For Another Great Depression?
Jan 2025, ZeroHedge News:
The End Of Economic Growth: Energy Shortages Drive Global Downturn
May 2025, ZeroHedge News:
Diminishing Returns Threaten World Economic Stability
All ‘Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World’.
And I think Gail was mentioned in another article.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dave-collums-2024-year-review-part-1-what-fact
Dave Collum’s 2024 Year In Review, Part 1: What Is A Fact?
[Thursday, Dec 26, 2024 – 10:30 PM, Authored by David B. Collum, Betty R. Miller Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology – Cornell University]
It might be as good or as bad as other News-Pages — depending on your own (political) convictions.
There are hundreds of sites which ping back to here. That does not mean they are reputable
European carmakers are not only losing their two most important markets China and the US, but Chinese carmakers are also selling increasingly more cars in Europe and emerging markets.
European unions and politicians live in a world that no longer exists. Good luck.
https://x.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1999389099703124079/photo/1
Interestingly for China it was step by step (yet ultra fast) learning curve vs say South Koreans earlier, which produced ~great carz just almost from the day entering the market (apart from less desirable design and form factor *practicality – that took almost a decade though)..
I’d say – confirm that at least 2-3x Chinese brands are now providing in the key ~EUR25-35k category way more than competitive products vs legacy automanufs..
—
* large/st section of clientele demands(needs) “all-in one package” carz for practical purposes: extended shopping, trades, hobbies – dogs / sport / fishing, .. you name it.. that was not much case with strictly city-tastes show off only automanuf centered Asia, it changed..
What is a “great” Korean car? Are they repairable or disposable at 100K miles?
Dennis L.
As mentioned to fit many criteria one of the best cars recently (in the affordable / ~smaller category) has been
[ SsangYong: Korando AWD]
I guess the corporate is renamed to “KGM” nowadays..
– ground clearance
– not much body F/R overhangs
– decent storage-room (for that category)
– not the cheapest AWD system (as in entry level CHNs or EUs)
– decent towing (vs others as above)
– higher mpg though (not a prob depends on appplication)
– NOT novelty – several iterations / updates so far
..
.
For really “great car” : repairable, and >100K miles you have to obviously search elsewhere (another distinct category to begin with):
– ladder or pickup chassis (incl. bigger engine-tranny..)
That Korando is ~best quasi compact compromise with ~1.5-2t towing, also decent platform candidate for future diy hacks to de- fossilize with smaller batt say bellow 40kWh etc.
Stop being surprised and shocked by these news.
Europe is commiting suicide? Yes.
But hey, you guys read Gail and others for how long?
THE WHOLE WORLD IS DYING.
If you look at what Globalists, or the EU, or WEF, or the Bildeberg, or whatever are doing, it is COMPLETELY ALIGNED to Peak Oil:
– Promoting depopulation directly and indirectly (Covid, LGTB issues)
– Forcing degrowth (Carbon taxes, deindustrialization)
– Starting wars for fossil fuels (Russian war)
– Removing oil demand from third world countries and redirecting it to their own countries (Immigration)
– Destruction of social cohesion and ability of political organization (Immigration)
– Gaslighting the population
– Reforming countries into Totalitarianism
– Controlling money access
– Destroying the lifestyle of high “carbon footprint” developed-world populations and replacing them with low ones
These could all be expected from leaders who knows shit is going down, soon and fast. Even Trump, which still has a “growth” outlook, only allows himself the position by having a supremacist energy plan of wanting the whole of the western hemisphere’s oil: Canada, Greenland/Arctic, Argentina, Venezuela, and ramping up things in America again.
The elites know exactly what they are doing, you’re just not seeing through their actions because you can’t see past their theatrics. China is digging its own grave by keeping its export-manufacturing prowess, but the alternative is not on the table either, it can’t stop now.
You see, there’s no alternative now for much, you either decide to collapse or you keep going until you collapse.
Salvation won’t come from the state, won’t come from politics, won’t come from voting.
You alone is responsible for taking care of yourself, your future and survival.
Really good summary!
Name, ravi isn’t surprised or shocked about anything. That rebuke makes zero sense.
You are of course correct that there is a non-public Degrowth Agenda but, while you a few few easy details right, your overall description of it is total mess full of contradictions.
I said the part about “shock” and “surprise” because people keep posting these news, like, of course the European car industry is going down… Europe is being starved of cheap energy and put policies in place that actively destroy their industry, that’s expected to happen, it would be weird if this in fact did not happen.
And then the comment about “European politicians live in a world that no longer exists”. Well, that’s what got me, because this is really an energy-blind thing to say. People who still believe in growth are the ones living in a world that no longer exists.
About contradictions, where? Maybe my poor grammar got the best of me, but I’ll try to elaborate on some positions.
There are countries that want to hoard all the energy for themselves, destroy complex trade systems and brace for impact while trying to maintain regular standards of living and business as usual (USA). Here you can see immigration being used as a tool to fight cheap-labor countries, with Mexicans picking fruits, Pakistanis driving trucks and Indians coding. This is all to maintain margins to industries who are being outcompeted worldwide, simply due to cost – if Americans decided to cut their wages and work for pennies, there would be no immigration, but that’s not going to happen.
There are countries which abdicated from trying, that are actively in degrowth and want to find an equilibrium at a lower level that could be sustained by renewables, but that still need fossil fuels now, today, their pension system is on the brink of collapse and they are desperate (EU). Here you see how immigration is used to inflate a credit bubble and make companies stay aflot due to consumer spending (it’s not about pensions or the labor market). Also, indoctrination into LGBT agenda, transgenderism, etc is basically chemically and mentally castrating the high carbon footprint population (this in the USA too). Also, something people don’t grasp anywhere: the powerful rise of Islam in Europe has everything to do with Gulf States buying European assets and preventing its economy from going down under, and with that also buying political power and politicians, similar to what Blackrock does.
There are countries that cannot possibly stop growing and becoming larger, their whole economy lies on production of goods in the industrial sector, and the foreign currency they get meanwhile fuels a huge asset bubble domesticaly, and its infrastructure maintanance is outpricing its competitiveness by turning its society into a low-EROI one, but in the end they have no other choice but forward (China).
I could write more things about more things, but this isn’t my blog, it’s Gail’s.
By the way, I was criticizing Michael A. Arouet, not our friend raivuppal4.
Really appreciate that elaboration, Name. Gail’s comment section is a creative commons. If you have a lot to offer, we like volume.
It kinda seems like you haven’t been lurking at all because my whole thing here pretty much is to chart the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda (the DA) as I see it playing out. But that agenda is a top-down agenda because civilization is a top-down affair. And given the fact that industrial civilization has been operating on a single, mature global private finance capitalist system for about 40 years, and combined with the fact that the only existential reason that a DA must exist is because this is a nuclear powered civilization that structurally threatens the lives of the Elites due to all of the distributed grid-powered spent fuel pools requiring constant cooling – together these two realities determine that only a single, truly global, supranational, suprapolitical, non-public organization (which I refer to as the Hidden Hand) can have the absolute authority and ability carry out a coherent DA.
Your vision does pay lip service to the globalists, but then it proceeds to present the various regional dynamics of the peak oil responses as decentralized and often competing efforts of their respective political bureaucracies to pursue their own DAs, or desperate pushes for energy growth via conquest, as they see fit. And that chaos is not what’s happening. And the internal contradictions of your analysis bear that out. The biggest example is that you say that Europe is rolling over and committing suicide with a green energy DA, yet at the same time you say that the Russian war is a Western attempt at regime changing Russia so that the West can steal its oil in order to keep growing. The contradiction is that you have Europe committing suicide while Europe has taken the lead in the supposed regime change war for oil.
It’s good to have you up in here brother.
It’s ok . I don’ t think it is Name’s intention to rebuke but an effort to amplify and expand my post . No offence taken . Over 20 years I have seen one stupidity overtaken by another and one lie beat another . So now the ” economy is a lie ” . Check the data ;
1 . USA nothing but overinflated paper and real estate sold to each other . Real physical production is virtually nil . BLS , FED data all lies .
2 . China . All false data . https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/xi-blasts-reckless-projects-exaggerating-growth-after-china-reveals-dismal-macro-data
3 . Japan with a 200% debt/GDP ratio . Another lie .
4 . India . All false data . Graded C by IMF .
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/c-grade-imf-valuation-india-national-account-statistics-10392483/
These are the four largest economies in the world and all are lying . Yes , you are correct nothing shocks or surprises me — been around too long .
” Over 20 years I have seen one stupidity overtaken by another and one lie beats another .”
Why did I say this ? It was not a ridicule Name or any other commentator . Here is the latest example .
New Delhi AQI is 1000 .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66KMAHOSOc0
Now the stupid part . The govt bans tandoors ( ovens) . Fans of Indian cuisine know banning tandoors means no tandoori chicken , chicken tikka and no naans . FUBAR .
Eating more of a vegetarian diet likely reduces fuel needs. Or simply not cooking in this way. Perhaps that is the underlying intent.
But people do need to eat something. Nan is very much a staple. More rice?
I think name was being rhetorical; not attacking. You sure have have a strange way of getting offended.
Gail , rice is not a substitute for Tandoori Chicken , Mutton Tikka , Tandoori Naan as far as taste and flavor is concerned . Tandoori flavor is tandoori flavor . There is no substitute . Evidently you have missed out on the Tandoori cuisine . Bad luck , but still time for you to give it a go ,if possible .
There is certainly an alternative!
Dimitri Orlov showed that only about 20% died during the collapse of the USSR, since citizens were able to get 50% of their food from their allotments.
In the old farmhouse garden, those plants that you wanted to ripen because they had desirable properties or were best adapted to the local circumstances were marked with a woolen thread and left standing. In this way, many different, locally adapted plants have been created. Tomatoes with certain resistances can be grown without a greenhouse, because they endure cold and rain without rotting.
Such seeds are still partially preserved in a few clubs today. If the circumstances change tomorrow, it will take at least a year until larger quantities of seeds are available. If there are allotments everywhere, the seed is quickly available. Also, people have enough know-how to grow vegetables or sheep for their family.
Such techniques and know-how must be kept alive. A bag of seeds and a shovel from the hardware store is not enough. Also it is necessary to prepare the soil so that a lot grows without fertilizers. All this takes time – but not a lot of money. These efforts are not lost, because it provides healthy greens even without cataclism.
It would be nice if to keep a few technologies though: glasses, microscopes, Geiger counters, letterpress printing. Should not be too difficult.
It’s like it’s told in the story of Noah and the Ark: people want to keep dancing instead of doing what needs to be done.
Everyone has to decide for himself. There are right and wrong decisions. All are okay in the end, but you have to bear the consequences.
I don’t see that the elite has any working concept. It is about esotericism. In difficult times, demons have an easy time and those who call them feel in an updraft.
I don’t think you saw the photos of human parts being sold by street vendors during the days of Russian Revolution, posted by Fast Eddy.
Orlov is a toady of Putin.
USA bailed out USSR at least twice and later said it is the Empire of Evil. How stupid.
Kulm, when we drill into the history lets acknowledge other juicy milestones so to speak as RU / USSR bailed out the US several times as well:
“In 1863, a six-vessel Russian Imperial Navy squadron, a part of the Russian Pacific Fleet, sailed via Vladivostok to the West Coast of the United States, to help defend the waters there against a possible attack by the United Kingdom or France, during the American Civil War (April 12, 1861 – May 10, 1865).”
– we can debate the reasoning behind this one perhaps it was in coop with some faction of int bankers..
///
Among other events, there were important trade deals in ~rare earths~ of the day during WWII, and also some helping hand action vs the JAP.
///
NPP fuel deliveries to US when their national industries were slacking and other global suppliers either did not have the spare capacity or rather had issues with the particular US fuel pellet diameter/sizing req..
///
and many more..
eddy and one or two others, were, and are, given to posting pics and clips which are such obvious fakes that anyone with an intellectual level above that of an 8 yr old would be too embarrassed to be associated with.
In Europe it’s much, much cheaper to fly from place to place. How is that reducing carbon footprint?!?
When transport is by plane, there is no need to build and maintain roads. That somewhat reduces the carbon footprint. But we are short of jet fuel, so ramping up air flights is not an alternative.
If Europe had its own inexpensive oil, coal and gas supplies, it could compete a whole lot better. Now, China is selling cars at a price below its cost of making cars. That adds another big problem.
An increasingly clear picture that China is having major problems:
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/xi-blasts-reckless-projects-exaggerating-growth-after-china-reveals-dismal-macro-data
Xi Blasts “Reckless” Projects Exaggerating Growth After China Reveals Dismal Macro Data For November
China’s economic momentum slowed broadly in November, with a marked weakening in consumer spending, adding pressure on Beijing to stabilize household and business demand in the world’s second-largest economy. . .
Fixed asset investment (FAI) maintained its double-digit year-on-year contraction in November on a single-month basis, though we would not over-interpret its recent slump as our study suggests that the NBS statistical correction of previously over-reported data has played at least as large a role as fundamental factors (e.g., the “anti-involution” policies and a prolonged property downturn). . .
Retail sales growth dropped meaningfully in November despite a low base.
We seem to have hit a worldwide softness in growth.
A guess. The problem is not China, it is the US and our inability to absorb more stuff or pay for it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/morgan-stanleys-adam-jonas-expores-spacex-ipo-emerging-orbital-data-center-race
Space is the place for data centers, unlimited energy and unlimited cooling. With AI we will mine space, manufacture in space and send the pollution to Jupiter, burp. We can grow in ways not yet imagined and economics will need to be reinvented.
I now mostly skim Gail, I am sure her data is correct and for terrestrial issues the conclusions are most likely correct as well. Population appears self limiting, demographics is going to be a real problem as aging is a biological process, indeed the universe seems engineered this way, even stars die but often with a fit of rage prior to senescence.
The “experts” in academia were wrong, we didn’t run out of oil. Now many of them dwell on ancient narratives and charge their students to absorb Plato, etc. Knowledge is changing and our understanding of the universe is changing as well, it is not what we thought. Good news, something besides string theory for young minds, time for the old to step aside.
Dennis L.
China is in serious trouble. They are no longer consuming their production, just as their housing bubble is being crushed. Their only play is to export as much as they can… in an effort to keep its economy going.
They are doing this by making sure they win in every market through price reduction. Nothing is profitable while they play this card.
That means that they are exporting deflation to other countries… killing industry in the countries they export to. The only play is to … tariff the hell out of China to prevent the ploy from being ruinous to everyone else.
So no.. the problem is absolutely China.
China exporting deflation is a worrisome problem. China’s exports kill industries in the countries that they export to.
You are right: High tariffs are the only solution. But high tariffs don’t solve the lack of cheap energy supplies and inexpensive other resources with which to build goods and services.
Declining populations or even older populations do solve the lack of cheap energy. E.g. Older people don’t drive 100mph, they put put along or take more time to put a walker in the trunk, less miles driven.
Dennis L.
There is no economics without biology. Population “growth” is slowing world wide and without growth there is no economic growth.
This is the same problem pension systems are facing, the old are depending on their own off spring for their older years. It is biology and the economics is merely material “stuff” placed upon biology. E.g. a bearskin for covering a human is not economics, it is biology. Grow wool, weave it, make a fabric coat and there is economics. More people more coats but if the population ages and stays inside, moves to beds, that ends the wool business.
Dennis L.
My guess would be building useless housing is a better social solution than handing out food stamps. People need meaning, perhaps this is a way.
Dennis L.
Clearly, the US’s K shaped economy is part of the problem, too. There are an awfully lot of people on the lower part of the K who can afford little besides the barest necessities.
That seems to be in part secondary to inward migration. The US has higher rents, it also has millions of immigrants. The emphasis on curbing migration seems to correlate with slowing of rental rates.
Dennis L.
Ultimately, stopping inward migration may even help bring home prices down. A lot of new homes have been built, especially in the South and West. If immigration is stopped, not all of them will be needed. Prices in these areas already seem to be down somewhat.
if you stop movement within the borders of a nation, then you need a physical permit to be where you are, issued by whatever authority is in control.
this is what the don ultimately wants—it isnt possible to control a nation unless you control the physical location of its people.
the next step is areas where the elite live, and other regions where the rest live.
it is a stated part of project 25, to establish cities that govern themselves in an absolute sense.
Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.”
― Edward Abbey, The Journey Home: Some Words in Defense of the American West
“we can grow in ways yet unimaginable” …that’s what I fear most
Cancer cells grow in order to stabilize the dangerous chemical volatility of fat-soluble carcinogens in cholesterol. When cancer cells multiply rapidly, it is because the body’s detoxification system is completely broken for systemic reasons and all carcinogens must be sent to cancer storage. It’s analogous to hyperinflation.
Unusual yet true, one of the easy self-diagnosing trick-tips is to watch for hand nails rate of growth – should you need trim it 2-3x per week – means you are super pumping with healthy grow on all/most fronts, also indicating over-all regeneration going well as you just alluded above with that correct immune self healing reaction in cancer embalming properties..
Perhaps nowadays, basics also told in early medical studies – I was told that decades ago by a specialized surgeon.
In that case we are one mass of healthy of excess growth of cells
Another great video explaining overshoot among many things. I loved how it showed that the production of all vegetable oils are unsustainable. The entire food production as we know it is unsustainable. None of it would have happened without unsustainable fossil fuels…
https://damnthematrix.wordpress.com/2025/11/07/greenwashed/
Yes, correct, all these vegan and similar activities can’t scale up or even continue at today’s overpop forcing.
But different pop to land ratio could be saturated long termish via olive tree + rapeseed plant oilz combo under correct land care. The first has to be imported to colder countries obviously, while the second one grows ok there (yes takes effort: be partially crop mulched and regularly saturated w. real stall manure..).
Hence under “revised” civilization say the northerners consume ~3:1 mixes (rapeseed + olive)..
PS you can check out your very own dishes and salads with such various ratio experimental setups already..
In the video, she addresses much more to chew on …but then again 😕, it’s not what we want to face….not a Happy Ending..
HELL IS HERE: What Greenwashed Reveals About the Truth We’re Not Allowed to Say
Why the most taboo words in environmentalism are “overpopulation” and “less.” Lyle Lewis
Dec 13, 2025
A megacity compressed into impossible density—growth upon growth on a finite world.
Sofia Pineda Ochoa’s documentary Greenwashed contains an image that doesn’t fade: two elephants running in terror, their bodies on fire after people hurled burning objects to drive them away. The caption is blunt and unforgettable:
Lyle’s Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Hell is here.
What makes the film extraordinary is that she refuses to pretend hell is somewhere else.
Not in another country.
Not in another century.
Not limited to a few unlucky species.
Hell is here now, for much of the biosphere.
By tracing her own journey, from well-intentioned environmental optimism to unflinching ecological realism, Ochoa reaches a conclusion that science tiptoes around and society fights to avoid: the forces dismantling the living world cannot be solved at the scale of 8 billion people living as we do now.
Hell is here now, for much of the biosphere
The Innocense Becomes Honesty
The documentary is disarming because Ochoa begins where so many of us began: earnest, hopeful, convinced we could change the world through the “right” choices.
She believed in: veganism,recycling,green energy,
“sustainable” consumerism,climate policyand the idea that innovation could outrun ecological collapse
She believed what we were taught to believe — that the environmental crisis was a technocratic problem, not a civilizational one.
But she has an overabundance of what modern society lacks most: curiosity. She dug deeper into microplastics, chemical toxins, collapsing biodiversity, deforestation, vanishing isheries, and climate disruption.
The truth quickly became unavoidable: none of the solutions scale. The numbers don’t add up. The planet’s biophysical limits don’t negotiate.
Her innocence becomes honesty.
And honesty becomes clarity.
Two taboo topic… overpopulation and ever increasing consumerism
Enough orbital crap. Donald Kessler will have the last laugh.
The only thing not limited by the laws of thermodynamics is delusion.
I agree: “The only thing not limited by the laws of thermodynamics is delusion.”
Time will tell.
Dennis L.
Time has told the story many times. However delusion makes someone numb to reality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VajTt1hrT4k
Samsung Just Dropped A “Silver Bomb”
The New Battery Tech That Breaks Global Supply
—————
From google:
Samsung’s solid-state battery technology, which utilizes a silver-carbon (Ag-C) composite layer in the anode, is progressing toward commercialization with pilot production lines operational since Q3 2024 and initial deliveries to luxury automakers underway.
The technology promises a 600-mile driving range, 9-minute charging times, and a 20-year lifespan, with the Ag-C layer playing a critical role in enabling high energy density, rapid charging, and enhanced safety by mitigating dendrite formation.
As of December 2025, the technology is being tested in vehicles, with first production models slated for late 2026, targeting the premium EV segment before broader market rollout by 2030.
The core innovation involves an oxide-based solid electrolyte replacing flammable liquid components, significantly improving safety and thermal stability.
The Ag-C composite anode, measuring 5–12 μm in thickness, enables a thinner electrode design, contributing to an energy density of 500 Wh/kg—nearly double that of conventional lithium-ion batteries.
Each battery cell is estimated to contain approximately 5 grams of silver, translating to about 1 kilogram of silver per 100 kWh battery pack.
If 20% of the 16 million annual EVs adopted this technology, silver demand would increase by 16,000 metric tons annually—62% of current global supply.
Despite high material costs, the extended lifespan and reduced replacement frequency are expected to make the total cost of ownership competitive with internal combustion engines over 20 years.
The technology is also being explored for applications beyond EVs, including consumer electronics, grid storage, aerospace, and marine environments.
Any new approach takes many years to ramp up, assuming all of the supply lines can be put in place, and the total cost can be kept low enough for consumers to afford. These are all pretty big ifs. There are competing other supplies, also, and diesel is in limited supply.
I should mention that there are many other constraints on EVs besides batteries. Charging infrastructure away from home is an issue, as is total electricity supply (especially with competition from AI). Building transmission lines, with all of the regulatory devices, is a major problem, too.
I have mentioned putting AI in space. Also, H may be a better solution for storing mobile energy.
It appears Ag and Cu will be the limiting factors to current EV’s.
Dennis L.
There is already a semi crisis in the silver markets . Now a new application that requires more silver .
A silver bullet. The question is, who takes the hit?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G8E3_rPa0AEJDTX?format=jpg
LOL!
Ski mountaineer Andrzej Bargiel becomes the first person to climb Mount Everest and ski back to Everest Base Camp without oxygen.
This is an amazing video. His brother was flying a drone ahead of him and was able to help him avoid death by talking to him through an ear piece.
For other insane stories about Everest… check out the YouTube Channel… “Kyle Hates Hiking”
They really did a great job of filming all around.
Kit DesLauriers was the first person to ski the 7 summits, she was/is married to Rob DesLauriers, part of the family that owns Bolton Valley Ski Area, that I taught nordic skiing for 20 years. Here is a ski video that starts with my bicycle that I rode there all those years. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMYpcdcN03k
I guess I should mention that I was one of the first people to bicycle the Annapurna loop back in the 80’s. I did 6 himalayan bicycle trips, and was asked if I would bike Everest, I said yes, but doubted he would get the sponsors, he didn’t.
“My current job will likely be taken over by India and AI in the near future. For more than a month now part of my job has become training Indian people, and we are being made to clap for the launch of AI tools that are literally designed to take over our work. Rabobank Group is still the only Dutch bank that hasn’t done mass layoffs recently, so we know what is to come.”
From a young Dutch acquaintance who works at Rabobank in the Netherlands.
This sounds terrible. Layoffs are not good for an economy. It is workers with jobs that pay well that move the economy along. How will AI manage this?
In the 18th century, according to accounts from the time, hand weavers who lost their livelihoods to the mechanical looms in continental Europe fought back by, among other things, throwing their sabots (a kind of clog) into the machines in order to damage them or stop them from operating.
The tactic was ultimately futile, as the machines were so much more profitable for their operators than hiring thousands of skilled artisans to do the work, and they produced cloth that was so much more affordable for consumers that Norman’s granny was able to decorate the house with tablecloths and curtains. But the weavers did succeed in inventing an important new word, which is still doing the rounds today: sabotage.
AI tools and the digital infrastructure as a whole represent another wave of industrial progress—or a quantum leap if you prefer. So they can be seen as a 21st century equivalent of the mechanized weaving, manufacturing, and agriculture that began in the 18th century. The vast majority of working people are likely to be negatively affected by this new Industrial Revolution and many will loose their livelihoods and be condemned to lives of poverty, or at the very least, much more modest means, than their parents or grandparents had to endure.
If politicians and policymakers have some good answers to this problem, I haven’t seen any. Perhaps AI will work something out to keep us all happy while we own nothing. More likely, the owners see the great regression as a way of taking society back to the days when the plebs knew their place and didn’t waste so many precious resources. I don’t see sabotage stopping this new Industrial Revolution, any more than the original Industrial Revolution could have been stopped, although I can imagine it being attempted by a sufficiently disgruntled minority.
Layoffs are not good for an economy, although economies will adjust accordingly. People tend to prefer a booming economy because that helps more people to be either affluent or at least too busy to worry. A shrinking or moribund economy, on the other hand, hurts most people directly by depriving them of work, money, and opportunities, and increasing poverty, hopelessness, and desperation. The new situation calls for a new kind of thinking among the people forced to experience it.
Great summary.
Could there be a solid thesis based upon the above impoverishment “end-goal” as saving-leaving resources up for the longer-haul of that new kind of civilization setup to drag for bit longer ?
As mentioned already here and elsewhere the resulting complexity shrinkage (and ricocheting / cascading effects) likely won’t allow it at all, but we might be overlooking some key emergent new aspects.. ?
Comparisons, allegories not always fitting, but say reversal to smaller scale city / university states keeping level of complexity vs. more sparsely populated general ignoramus country-side and abandoned dis-functional metro areas.
I don’t see it happening as the overall material-industrial-educated workforce complexity nexus is so delicately-dense it likely can’t be re-arranged on a dime.. as ~futurologists like to pretend.
Nevertheless, future tends to surprise those unsuspecting..
“..more sparsely populated general ignoramus country-side and abandoned dis-functional metro areas.”
You’ll be better off exploring the country-side now and getting a piece of land while doing good deeds to get acquainted with the residents who can trade fresh meat and vegetables for your fiat and teach you how to be more self-sufficient. The best you can do in the metro areas is be an edge lord finding a small pocket of hipsters where you can start a community garden and weekly potluck as long as you know when to stay indoors at night to keep from getting your skull cracked or your pockets emptied. Maybe you can get to a place like Burlington, VT or Portland, Maine but even there the homeless are setting up in the retail districts and theft rings are increasing. Yes at the end you are better off humbling yourself now, pursing “unmetered living” and getting tight with the knuckle draggers. If you’re a POC you’ll still be ok in the northern tier of PA/NY if you’re not an entitled person. For example, 2 black doctor’s bought a hunting cabin on 80 acres a 1/4 mile from our place and one of the legacy members of the closest hamlet is a lesbian Alpaca farmer, lol. Best of luck!
Yes, thanks – the quote was placed in overall context (of future displaced wave of former city dwellers) not meant in derogatory way towards countryside..
Over the years (well decades now) – we used to have quite a few back to landers on this very forum as well, occasionally sharing some cultivation tricks.. Actually did just few dayz ago.
However, most of the “real pros” ventured towards the upper PCFNW – as the best destination for “solitude” at largish acreage possible for currency.. Obviously with its own specific set of challenges.. Nevertheless suggested edge of NY / VT also host lot of skilled people on very nice ~hidden land.
It is cold in the New York/Vermont area. Perhaps a little less cold in the Pacific Northwest.
Farming is more difficult than it looks. There really needs to be a group of people working together and trading. It becomes difficult to do, otherwise.
Today’s tools are not likely to work for the long term. Figuring out what will work for the long term is close to impossible. Economies seem to collapse and then build up from the bottom again, taking into account what has been learned.
Yes, I’m not downplaying the scale of necessary efforts.
Btw. there are several farmers doing successfully low input farming (homesteading) within the general New York/Vermont area..
The production obviously varies in volume and specificity vs other more tempered areas – but that’s also an advantage NOT being lured into overproduction (and quick soil degradation) per given area.
Moreover, some produce/fruit variety also depends on the continuous supply of greenhouse material in such a climate – be it plastic rolls or tables of glass. Although the latter could be sourced into to the future as older bldg ~recycled/repurposed material, while it lasts (few generations).
PS obviously, the key bottom line remains – it won’t be able to immediately compensate for shocks in (post peak) industrial agriculture output.
Jr, we walked away over 20 years ago and settled an hour outside of Ithaca. As Gail says farming is more difficult than it looks. In most cases cheap land means crappy soil, and it takes years to build it up. Nothing wrong with the cold. It cuts down on the homeless population. They tend to go south. We are living in Maine now way north of Portland on the coast. It will take you 5 years to learn enough about your land to be able to exist. Listening to Kunstler is what caused us to walk away. Guy reinforced it. Its a tough life but you get used to it and eventually wouldn’t have it any other way. Wherever you go resist the urge to tell the locals what to do.
Runaway, if it was not clear from previous posts, I’ve been trying to improve my soil for several yrs already. The last call into more serious action were the very drought stricken years of early 2010s – as I watched many neighbors cutting grasses hard (be it just lawn or quasi pasture) and or trimming (higher plants/bushes) with sheer horror..
Theirs plots have not revamped – hard stagnation instead, although as discussed earlier we had this autumn something like one in +25yrs gargantuan apple bumper crop in most/large part of Europe.. so each day entire winter great gifts provided..
Nature is ready to re-bounce strongly if not hampered by crazy humans..
Unfortunately, you are right. A scaled back affordable version of AI seems likely to survive. The trend toward ever more efficient use of energy will go on.
investment demands infinite growth
currently AI supports that fairy tale.
so we have $tr in ‘valuations’—supported by what appears to be very lttle.
ultimately ai can only tell us how to be ”more efficient” with what we have….it cannot ‘increase’ what we have, whereas investment physical resourcedi increase what we have, but only to the limit of those resources.
no amount of money input could increase to size of an oilfield, only provide the means to extract what was there,
i’m no ‘smart investor’—but it does seem to me that ai carries the hallmarks of dutch tulip bulbs and every other get rich quick scheme ever since
There still may be some nuggets of AI that are worthwhile, even if the planned buildout is ridiculous today.
At that time coal was abundant and easily obtainable
All these AI stuff will just consume more energy before it becomes unteneable
Demi
get an essential job or government job.
You can guess that there is going to be a lot of competition for such jobs. I’m a pensioner, so it’s not a problem for me.
As long as the pension keeps coming. Did you read my post?
Yes, there’s that. I expect I only have another couple of years, anyway. I’m sleeping between 11 and 13 hours a day in total now.
May I ask your previous adult – working life pensum for overnight sleep (serious inquiry)?
<6hrs
<8hrs
<9hrs
My grandma also later increased her hours noticeably, but I'd say the most of the newly prolongation sleep period was on the shallow not deep kind of sleep procedure..
Hi Jr.,
I was previously a 8hr a night sleeper. Now I tend to get tired twice during the day too, and have to rush to bed, when I sleep anything between 1½ and 3 hours. Just a recent thing, but I live alone, so I just go with it. I suspect it’s an age thing, though earlier than I would have imagined. My health is still good, though.
I suggest Sermorelin. Give it six months it is slow.
https://www.healthline.com/health/sermorelin
Sermorelin is a synthetic form of growth hormone-releasing hormone (GHRH), used to raise levels of human growth hormone (hGH). It’s currently not available in the U. S. as an FDA-approved medication, but can be obtained via pharmacies that make individualized medications.
Your body needs human growth hormone (hGH) to grow and develop properly. This peptide hormone is produced in the pituitary gland of your brain.
Although hGH plays its most crucial role during childhood and adolescence, it continues to maintain healthy tissues and organs throughout your life. Because of that, hGH levels that are lower or higher than typical can lead to health problems both in children and adults.
Government badly needs to shrink, with less energy supply per capita.
Essential jobs are unlikely to survive in their current form, as energy availability shrinks. There may be new essential jobs (say, farmers, with different tools and ways of assuring fertility of soil and competition with weeds and animal predators).
“Financial Markets Are Already Pricing The Fossil Fuel Phase-Out
“A Morgan Stanley survey of institutional investors managing tens of trillions of dollars shows capital is already behaving as if a Fossil Fuel Phase-Out is underway. Not through headlines or pledges, but through mandates, risk models, and capital allocation decisions that quietly reroute money away from assets with declining transition credibility.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/we-dont-have-time/2025/12/14/financial-markets-are-already-pricing-the-fossil-fuel-phase-out/
“already behaving AS IF a Fossil Fuel Phase-Out is underway” — but, where are things actually “going green”? (Maybe the folks in Hawaii know.)
Good point! Our issue today is that we have nothing to transition to. Getting along without fossil fuels is too close to having to get along without food, for the vast majority of us. Also, having to get along without all modern conveniences.
Hey tagio the only two words missing in this paragraph are China and stablecoins. 😁
“Here is the risk to be watching. If both gold and equities unwind together, investors seeking safety have limited options. Such leaves Treasury bonds, cash, and very defensive positioning as traditional havens no longer deliver. As the BIS highlighted, the risk is that if central banks and reserve managers, many of whom have invested in gold, find themselves in unfamiliar territory where both markets fall simultaneously, the reversal of their positioning could be swift and uncoordinated.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bis-warns-rare-double-bubble
Ho! It’s double bubble trouble y’all!
We live in strange times:
As noted in the BIS report, for the first time in over 50 years, both gold and equities have shown “explosive behavior” simultaneously.
Somehow, thanks to leverage and lots of loose credit, there is an awfully lot of money to be invested. Quite a bit of the money is going into stocks (the magnificent seven and a few others, particularly) and gold. This is not a sustainable situation, especially in a world where fossil fuel supplies are constrained, and AI increasingly looks like a bubble.
“outstanding debt must increase month on month, it must never be allowed to shrink, otherwise the whole system would collapse.’
By system collapse you mean access to food and goods from abroad is restricted.
in a particular country.
Access to domestic production shouldn’t be harmed but almost every single country depends on imports to make everything. I’m sure one country is importing oxygen and water at this point.
In either case, creditors decide to cut access to imports which require financial services the creditors provide to import, anyway.
Poor countries facing ‘collapse’ are used to scarcity and non-existent governments so the only difference they will see, as in Haiti, is a surge in non-state violence.
Of course, one could argue the violent actors are being armed by U.S. and its European NATO allies to reduce competition for resources. But. People in those countries work around this by o emigrating to U.S. and its European NATO allies to access to those resources they are being denied in their homelands. In their homelands, they could borrow very little. In the U.S. in a NATO country they can potentially borrow a lot. The gag that was popular on television decades ago where a person takes out a wallet with a dozen or two dozen credit cards comes to mind.
Do I have any of this right?
This refers to “the system” that ensures that oil is extracted, refined and distributed.
The economic system since the Industrial Revolution ensures that energy from hydrocarbons can be profitably extracted and sold. To this end, sufficient productivity must be created by oil on the demand side so that demand does not collapse. If it does not, productivity can be replaced by loans and isolation of inflation for a certain period of time, as Hjalmar Schacht demonstrated with the Mefo bills.
If this no longer works and demand collapses drastically, this destroys production companies and fields and know-how is lost. Production is falling below demand, processes that rely on hydrocarbons are disintegrating, their products, for example, fertilizer or glass, are absent in downstream processes. Unemployment is rising, the economy is crashing, inflation is rising and banks are going bankrupt because the loans can no longer be serviced. This means that there are no banks that pre-finance and insure the oil recovery and transport and the required machinery. This is what is meant by “the system” no longer works.
Was the question whether one could recognize an incipient collapse on the poorer periphery? Rather not, since the peripherals are not relevant for this system. You can still intervene here through imports and assistance.
“Was the question whether one could recognize an incipient collapse on the poorer periphery? ”
No, Jan, I equated collapse , as it exists, to austerity or removal of a country from access to international capital.
Now that I think of it, trade sanctions are another form of
so-called collapse in peripheral countries.
Collapse has not really happened in most countries in recent history. The closest we have gotten are famines in countries where the majority of food consumed is locally produced. When those famines occurred, the international groups quickly intervened to prevent the collapse from progressing.
Trade sanctions are a way of attempting to bring down the international trade system slowly. It is letting air out of the balloon slowly, so the balloon won’t blow away. Trade sanctions help prevent inflation in prices of the things that are available. They help keep the system going longer.
Or do trade sanctions actually precipitate the collapse to happen sooner? I’m not sure the complexity of the system seems to have problems with distribution
Nathaniel you’ve been here for awhile now and you have recently begun to regress to the point of trolling the theory.
If the civilization wasn’t having distribution problems we wouldn’t be here talking about it.
VW gears up for first production closure in Germany in its 88-year history
Ending manufacturing at Dresden site comes as Europe’s largest auto producer battles weak demand in its key markets .
https://www.ft.com/content/d7d0fbc8-2e92-49c5-be38-1412d8392fa9
Other stories say that VW wants to close at least three plants in Germany, and downsize other factories. One article says:
https://www.heise.de/en/news/After-ending-car-production-VW-site-in-Dresden-to-become-innovation-campus-11103491.html
After ending car production: VW site in Dresden to become innovation campus
Instead of closing the plant, Volkswagen plans to transform its Dresden assembly plant into a technology center, starting in weeks.
When Volkswagen definitively ends its series production in Dresden at the end of the year after 23 years, the group will not close its plant, the “Transparent Factory”. Together with the Free State of Saxony and the Technical University of Dresden, the company signed a letter of intent for the establishment of an innovation campus for key technology fields, including Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics, microelectronics, and chip design. Both sides intend to invest beyond 50 million euros in the site over the next seven years, according to a press release from the group.
Chemical industries are also collapsing in Germany .
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/collapse-germanys-chemical-sector-bad-omen
More renewable energy capacity, an increase in the population of immigrants willing to work for a pittance and more AI adoption will make Germany recover, according to the experts.
Are the immigrants there to work for a pittance or to prop up demand from collapsing?
I don’t think any capitalist is worrying about demand collapsing. At the height of the C-19 there was not a single businessman that proclaimed they were worried about demand collapsing. The ones that did were small businesses and those kind of business owners’ concerns are generally censored because only the concerns of large businesses matter to the elite. I know people will point to contrary data like the reports on sales data and I’ll say that does not prove capitalists care about the affordability of the goods and services they provide.
The immigrants were brought in specifically because they will work harder for less money. Supply side economics is concerned with reducing costs for business, not stimulating demand. Socialists and Communists are concerned with demand.
Let’s put it this way: a company with a quarter trillion dollar debt on its balance sheet that’s turning into a cash burner doesn’t have the brightest future.
https://x.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1998494020348129615/photo/1
US Government Sold $602 Billion of Treasuries this Week, 10-Year Treasury Yield Bounces Back to 4.20%, 30-Year Yield to 4.86%, Highest since Sep 4, after Fed Cuts .https://wolfstreet.com/2025/12/12/us-government-sold-602-billion-of-treasuries-this-week-10-year-treasury-yield-bounces-back-to-4-20-30-year-yield-to-4-86-highest-since-sep-4-after-fed-cuts/
Saw a video a few days back and the podcaster said ” The $ 3 T deficit the ” exorbitant privilege ” is over . The job of the Treasury Secretary is no longer the management of the US economy but to act as a salesman to sell the US debt . The problem is that the largest holder Japan is in a currency crisis , the EU must finance the UKR war , ME is in a crisis of it’s own with the low oil prices and Trump has declared an economic war with China . Currently he is not even making an effort to sell the debt , just dissuading and begging the Japanese and Chinese ” please don’t sell your holding , please , please ” . Bessant is now between a rock and a hard place .
The Fed will just buy whatever debt is required via third parties, monetizing the debt surreptitiously. I think it is probably already happening. This notion that foreigners selling will have some huge effect is nonsense – Japan has ~1 trillion while US total debt is 40! What does the 1 matter? And 75% of US debt is domestically held by various institutions and pensions.
Ivan , the problem is the ” Domino Effect ” . Once the selling starts all are going to be rushing so as not to be the last man out of the door and that includes domestic investors who are now sitting on unrealised losses as the bonds are valued as ” mark to maturity ” and that changes to ” mark to market ” . The Fed cannot handle this big a s***bag .
That’s correct ravi, as I’ve told ivan before, as the lender of last resort the Fed cannot make unsecured loans like he is proposing because it has no reserves of its own (no capital structure). The moment it made an unsecured loan it would become insolvent and, therefore, no longer be a lender of last resort, and what would happen to the system without the Federal Reserve?
But ivan doesn’t seem to want to listen or think or learn. He just wants to reinvent the wheel by removing the hub.
Agree to disagree, I guess. I don’t think there’s a problem until foreigners start charging many more dollars to send their goods and materials here, i.e. currency crisis or massive inflation. The Fed always can and will deploy the Plunge Protection Team to maintain market prices / asset values; they will buy stocks directly if it comes to that. They can control either the value of the currency or asset prices, but not both, and historically they go the inflation/devaluation route.
Then i challenge you to find any serious analyst who would agree with you that the Fed is able to throw money at the banks without requiring collateral in return. It’s never happened and I’ve never heard it proposed by anyone but yourself.
If the Fed makes unsecured loans it becomes an insolvent commercial bank rather than a central bank. That’s not it’s function and it would be in breach of the Federal Reserve act. so why wouldn’t it just stick to QE as usual? QE serves the same function that you are proposing. If, say, primary dealers started showing up with hundreds of billions of dollars on their balance sheets out of nowhere and with the same collateral on their books, that would be completely fraudulent and would blow up the system. As absurd as we see the system to be, there is still a rationale to it with an internal logic. There are basic rules, ivan.
You disagree yet you don’t make an argument defending your position, you make unrelated personal observations about the stock market and commodity prices.
The closest parallel to what we are facing is the Great Depression, and that was a deflationary depression. The Long Depression of the 19th century was deflationary, and the GFC was deflationary. So your reading of history is patently false.
Just out of curiosity asking, so yo don’t expect in any near-mid term future rounds, that FED would drastically change quality evaluation (supervision- ..) of said collateral among the commercial banks system? Because some argue this pattern (of breaching into junk collateral waters) has been used in the past already, so why not extending it now to even larger extremes.. ?
In terms of the “novelty” and “sponginess” of said collateral it could be frankly anything of “near-future value” from AI – efficiency promises to next gen energy generation ideas etc.
Well yes ultimately the whole point of Fed purchases is to keep that collateral/asset from getting marked to market at a lower valuation by putting a floor under the whole market with volume of the purchase price. That’s why we think the system absurd, because it makes impending ‘junk’ collateral, in an organic world, whole again, by printer goes brrrr. It’s cheating. But they’d say it’s cheating for a good cause. And who that believes in civilization can argue with that? ivan, though, thinks they can do better than cheat even though a word has never been invented for that. The brrrr is just the production of additional hot air for Gail’s ballon metaphor, so that the target asset classes that are becoming unaffordable (bonds, MBS) can be refloated. Ponzi schemes run on a continual increase in hot air. The hot air is a proxy for energy surpluses.
That’s why when energy surpluses are in terminal collapse, as they are now, the printer can no longer go brrrr enough to continue to float the balloon higher, but it can and will be used to more slowly ‘let’ the hot air out and bring the balloon back to Earth for its rough landing. Cargo in the basket (the purchasing power of other currencies) also has to be unloaded because it turns out that the less brrrr there is from the printer, the lower is the temperature of the hot air that enters the hot air balloon. The real heating value (ability to float the civilization) each unit (dollar) has, deflates. Because the smaller the flame the more ambient temperature air mixes in with it as it funnels up into the balloon. That said, the absolute real value of each heating unit volume (dollar) increases, because the hot air as thrust against gravity has now inverted into hot air as brake against gravity, and brakes are absolutely more valuable when you absolutely have to slow down. Oil becomes more precious.
I see what you are saying Ivan but isn’t that something of the past? The rest of the world is moving away from the dollar. If I was the brics I would not want any dollars and would be working diligently to get away from the current system. The U.S seems to still be running massive deficits and are already in a recession. How will the “stimulate” to get out.
Also If the FED is manipulating things so much then why would anyone really want to invest in such a manipulated system?
I’m arguing that dollar acceptance in international settlement matters much more than Treasurys held on balance sheets of central banks. For example, there is a huge Eurodollar system in which there is a large pool of “offshore” dollars (a correspondent banking relationship, not truly “offshore”). When there are offshore dollars, the Fed can devalue those too, spreading inflation without all of that inflation happening in the USA – *THAT* is what is important: the ability to obtain an enormous income stream via counterfeiting while externalizing the ill effects.
You are making shit up and not in a good way. Pretty much every sentence you wrote has internal contradiction in it. And there’s no shortage of external contradictions too.
It looks like we are headed toward much more very short-term debt being sold, compared to previously, since the very short treasuries have slightly lower interest rates than the longer-terms. But this means that a whole lot of debt will need to be replaced, over and over, besides the additional debt.
And as Wolf points out, the lower three month rates aren’t translating to lower long-term rates.
It is a worrying situation.
Jesus Gail. I didn’t realize the 3-month is 3.5% lol. I was thinking it was probly like 2 or 2.5.
Update .
”The 30-year Treasury yield has risen by 19 basis points since September 16, while the Fed cut interest rates by 75 basis points. It closed on Friday at 4.84%, while the Effective Federal Funds rate (EFFR), which the Fed targets with its policy rates, has dropped by 75 basis points (blue in the chart). ”
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/12/15/treasury-yield-curve-steepens-sharply-yields-from-2-years-to-30-years-have-risen-as-the-fed-cut-three-times-this-year/
According to the article:
The bond market faces a problem: The Fed cut rates three times this year while inflation has accelerated. CPI inflation, when last measured, was 3.0%, which was the September reading. And the only reason it wasn’t higher was the outlier plunge in Owners Equivalent of Rent (OER), the largest CPI component, weighing 26% in overall CPI, 33% in core CPI, and 44% in core services CPI (my analysis is here). Something went awry, but CPI was cobbled together by hastily recalled staff during the shutdown, and that was that.
Cutting interest rates in this inflationary environment can spook the bond market. It’s already worried about the onslaught of new supply of Treasury securities to fund the ballooning government deficits. And it fears a lackadaisical Fed when inflation is out of the bottle.
Inflation destroys the purchasing power of long-term bonds; and the yield has to be high enough to compensate investors for this destruction of purchasing power, and for the other risks investors are taking.
Inflation is not to be trifled with. It’s not just the bond market where yields can blow out; it’s consumers and voters. They hate inflation, and they hate high prices, and they express their feelings about inflation at the polls.
So we end up with a strange curve, that dips a bit in the 1 to 2 year range.
The economy’s getting bigger.
We need the dancing banana!!!! Wooohooo! Investor Guy!!!
Economy’s getting bigger.
The space economy is on pace to be larger than Earth’s economy by 2030.
To the moon Alice!!!
To infinity and beyond!
or you could go round and round in circles,
and eventually disappear up your own ——
IG
i know that nothing i say will dissuade you from total belief in economic fantasy
but it might help others.
you obviously have no idea what we call an ‘economy’ is—
an economic system is one where the participants buy, sell and exchange ”stuff” with the intention and expectation of making a profit.
in order to do that, your (work) input must be less than the output gained.
ie—if you mine a ton of coal, you must get more energy out of the coal, than it took to mine the coal in the first place.
same applies to space—spending $trn on space ventures, MUST return greater usable energy than it took to make the space journey in the first place.
sending up 000s of satellites is NOT an economy, it is spending money on spacedreams. That money can only exist if it underpinned by Earth resources.
Musk and Bezos can only afford to play and rocket science because they are supported by earth industries. (same applies to governments btw)
The space economy is a parallel economy, Norman. That means it is producing goods and services independently of Earth.
America’s space economy is especially independent. In fact, a lot of the industry on-shoring due to Trump’s tariffs are moving into space! The next Ford F-150 you buy or the next pair of briefs you buy might say “Made In American Outer Space Territories” or something like that.
I hope you learned something today.
IG
space is not producing goods and services in parallel to those on Earth
Your satnav might be thought of as a space service–but it isnt, it is a reflection of earth activity, but 500 m up.–without earth activity–your satnav would no t exist.
AS to goods–yes–but only at the small experimental ‘growth’ level…
/////quote….The next Ford F-150 you buy or the next pair of briefs you buy might say “Made In American Outer Space Territories”…unquote/////
IG—i can only hope you were pulling my watsit with that.
Because if you weren’t you are more delusional than the don.
i wouldnt wish that level of bonkersness on anyone…..
How do republics die? The US will reach 250 years any day now.
I expect the US will make it to the 250th anniversary, but not necessarily the 255th or 260th.
Yikes 😬…. Really?
That’s very close.
Republics have turned into dictatorships towards the end of their lifespans.
Perhaps it was necessary to keep people from rebelling. Or perhaps Rome was always dicatorship with some democratic elements that allowed imput from the elite and for some reason the elite lost interest in governing.
Republics take a lot more energy than dictatorships. If energy supplies are short. It is not at all surprising that Republics change into Dictatorships.
Energy ShiftA Lifetime’s Consumption of Fossil Fuels, VisualizedPublished 3 years ago on July 22, 2022
By Niccolo Conte
https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/a-lifetimes-consumption-of-fossil-fuels-visualized/
For the 80 year lifespan of an American…yikes….
“Rodney Brooks—MIT professor emeritus, co-founder of iRobot, and one of robotics’ most accomplished practitioners—has been unsparing in his assessment. He calls general-purpose humanoids “pure fantasy thinking.” Humans, he notes, have approximately 17,000 touch receptors per hand. Current robots “have nothing comparable.” His prediction: in fifteen years, successful “humanoids” will likely have wheels instead of legs and multiple specialized arms rather than human-mimicking form factors. The anthropomorphic design is marketing, not engineering optimization. “?
https://substack.com/home/post/p-181564301
a robot that cuts your lawn, makes you tea and then wants to have sex with you would be ideal
let me know when they reach that stages
Norm you and Nick Fuentes would get along better than you think. So we can add him to Tim’s list of Trump and Greene.
How’s this for predictive programming?
Artificial Man (1973)
Oh I can’t believe this is happening
I just want to stay
The way that I am
And I don’t want to live a lie
In an artificial world
Let’s build an antiseptic world
Full of artificial people
Cure all diseases, conquer pain
And monitor the human brain
And see what thoughts you’re thinking
Observe your feelings
Secret fears
Controlling everything you say and do
And we will build a master race
To live within our artificial world
Tell it to the people all across the land
We’re going to build an artificial man
With the physique of a Tarzan
And the profile of a Cary Grant
Superior beings totally made by hand
Throw out imperfection
Mould you section by section
Gonna make you the ultimate creation
I can visualise the day
When the world will be controlled by artificial people
But I don’t want to live a lie in an artificial world
Tell the world that we finally did it,
Made a man that’s totally programmed,
Preconditioned thoughts and emotions,
Push-button artificial man.
Did you ever want to live forever?
Well here’s your chance to be a total automaton
’cause we’ve improved on God’s creation
An outdated homo sapien.
Make you taller if you want it
Make your hair grow longer if you need it.
If it doesn’t exist then I guess we can breed it.
There’ll be no disagreements,
We’ll dedicate our lives to achievements,
And organize your life and keep it totally planned.
I can visualise the day
When the world will be controlled by artificial people,
But i don’t want to live a lie in an artificial world.
Tell the world we finally did it
Modified the population
Put your senses and your mind
Under constant observation
Even when you’re dreaming
Replaced your nose, heart and lungs
So shake me with your artificial hand
We went and built a master race
To live within our artificial world
He said it’s not possible with current level of tech.
Meaning, the Boston Dynamics’ dancing robots are probably not real.
AI Overview
Tesla’s
Optimus humanoid robot integrates custom-designed touch and force-torque sensors throughout its body to enable sophisticated interaction with its environment. These sensors are crucial for its ability to perform delicate manipulation tasks, such as handling an egg without breaking it.
Key Sensor Systems in Optimus
Fingertip Tactile Sensors: The hands and fingers feature custom tactile (touch-sensitive) sensors with metallic tendons, providing the necessary feedback for delicate and precise manipulation. The latest versions have enhanced sensitivity, allowing the robot to read pressure and texture effectively. This technology is likely based on capacitive sensors, which offer high sensitivity for interacting with soft or deformable objects.
Force and Torque Sensing: Comprehensive force and torque sensors are located across all joints, wrists, and feet. These six-axis sensors enable precise control of interaction forces with the environment, which is essential for stable balance, terrain adaptation, and tasks requiring human-like finesse, such as assembly or using tools.
Other Integrated Sensors: Optimus uses a sophisticated sensory system that also includes:
Autopilot-grade cameras for visual perception and mapping the environment.
Proprioception sensors to monitor internal joint positions and forces in real-time.
Audio and temperature sensors.
The data from all these sensors is fed into a neural network, allowing the robot to perceive the world and respond to its surroundings with high precision and autonomy, similar to human sensory processing
Rodney is 70 years old.
The World’s August oil production increased by 405 kb/d to 85,244 kb/d, a new World Peak Oil All Time High . If the world is so f…ed up on this peak of energy what will happen on the decline.
Copy/ paste POB .
I feel a downward revisement coming.
On Shellman’s site, an excerpt from Goehring & Rozencwajg’s Q3 2025 report is posted that says the Permian has now rolled over.
But there are other places in the world adding production. I gave a list in a comment, recently.
Drb
Well with the ECoE increasing, maybe the net usable energy is already plateaued. If someone is familiar with those numbers, do chime in.
If total production plateaued between 2005 and 2019, then we can know that net.energy plateaued before that. The global wave of high inflation is the result of the decline after the plateau, because money is a proxy for energy.
Real or not real ivan?
I think October was also down
For November 2025, the IEA reported a significant drop in global oil supply, down 610,000 barrels per day (bpd) from October, largely due to falling Russian and Venezuelan output from sanctions, with Russia seeing its exports plummet by 420,000 bpd, resulting in record-low revenues. This decline reduced the expected oil surplus for 2025 and 2026, as non-OPEC+ production (US, Canada, Brazil) still grew, creating a complex market with tight fuel supplies but ample crude, according to IEA’s December 2025 report.
More trade is moving outside of US/Western commodity trading houses, so I wonder whether IEA data is in turn increasingly missing some trade data.
In our new AI future of UAI universal abundant income will we limit the number of humans to protect the environment?
Considering the domain of scifi produced around the publication of Limits2Growth; likelihood is that s̶o̶m̶e̶ THEY will try.
why didn’t they do the job with the round-1 vax? now everyone has wised up and it will be harder to administer on the next go-round.
They did. 45’s Fauci surprise sent a whole lotta conservatives to jabfront. None /few would have been there had it been Hillary-speed. They might have since wised up but at least 20 percent now have shortened lifespans.
L2G wasn’t and unheeded warning it was a dogwhistle to the noble perpetrators of population control.
Rotten France .
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/frances-fiscal-death-spiral-nation-incapable-reform
Patrick Raymond . The death of the supermarkets .
https://lachute.over-blog.com/2025/12/le-chemin-qui-descend.html
Regarding Patrick Raymond’s post, he says that the US brought big supermarkets, shortly after World War II. They were adopted long ago, with the less-energy efficient systems of the day. Now their costs are quite high, and customers have noticed.
He says,
The big winners are the small stores, the hard discounters, with limited product ranges but small store sizes, like Lidl, Aldi, and many others, who aren’t necessarily thriving either. Among them is Leader Price, dragged down by Casino’s collapse and often acquired by Aldi, of which only a remnant remained, recently liquidated.
The moral of the story? Mass retail experienced a golden age from 1960 to 1980 in France, a more uncertain period until 2008, but growth was still present, even if it was much weaker. We see a clear decline in sales starting in 2008.
The conclusion is clear. Those who live by the sword will die by the sword. Mass retail, too, was built on oil. It developed with it and is declining with it as well.
I am afraid many of our big malls in the US are reaching the ends of their lifetimes, as well, with their big halls that they need to keep heated. They started to be added in the 1960s. The trend has been to build strip malls. Some are quite large, closer to more expensive neighborhoods. There are lots of small stores, arranged in strips, outside.
Making physical goods in quantities and at price points the average person can afford has become much harder since the 1980s. This was hidden with off-shoring and the ridiculous focus on the( financial ) service economy. It has been a generation and a half. The problem cannot be hidden anymore. Now, war and AI are being sold as answers.
Another dimension to the oil boat seizure:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/seized-tanker-reveals-cubas-secret-oil-lifeline-trump-turns-gunboat-diplomacy
Seized Tanker Reveals Cuba’s Secret Oil Lifeline As Trump Turns To Gunboat Diplomacy
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has realized that it is all about following the money. If the U.S. military posture in the Caribbean is one of “gunboat diplomacy” aimed at ushering in regime change in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, against the country’s autocratic leader, Nicolás Maduro, then one way to accelerate regime instability is to weaken Cuba materially.
During President Trump’s first term, there was a brief moment in which the Maduro regime appeared close to being overthrown, but it was countered by support from Cuba. According to The New York Times reporters Michael Crowley and Edward Wong, that failure frustrated Trump, his advisers, and then Senator Rubio, who had backed regime change.
“Their theory of change involves cutting off all support to Cuba,” said Juan S. Gonzalez, who was President Joe Biden’s top White House aide for Western Hemisphere affairs. “Under this approach, once Venezuela goes, Cuba will follow.”
In a separate NYT report, journalists Anatoly Kurmanaev, Nicholas Nehamas, and Farnaz Fassihi explained that the seized tanker Skipper, which was carrying crude contracted by Cubametales, Cuba’s state-run oil trading firm, is a critical part of how Cuba benefits from its oil trade with Venezuela.
The reporters cited internal data from Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, showing that Skipper’s destination was listed as the Cuban port of Matanzas.
Is muscling-in like that on other countries’ transactions proper?
We are now in a game of musical chairs, without enough chairs. The big players push the little players around however they can. (Venezuela and Cuba are both little players.)
Without enough oil to go around, all of the economies are going down. Island nations like Cuba are particularly close to the edge. They seem to be easy to push down.
Oil earning countries are harder to push down, because other countries are interested in their oil as well. We could end up with another proxy war.
But why is there a glut of cheap oil on the market if there is not enough to go around? And I keep hearing of more oil about to come online? It’s seems like we have plenty for the next 50 years
One of the acute reasons for it at the moment is looming (pre-)recession. The Christmas Holiday season is flat at best among spendy- industrial nations, quite likely it could end up in the end as real (-)massacre in many countries-markets over the years in memory..
Also colloquially – after very long time it was absolutely NO problem to schedule the highest ranking (user satisfaction) trades people this end of year.. Also my email is constantly bombarded by discounts >20-30% offerings from real companies I’m freq. in usual contact throughout the year: food, toolz-equip, electronix, ..
In short: imminent momentary oil glut under larger PO mega trend..
Oil prices are set by affordability — oil extracters sell crude oil at auction — oil refiners don’t bid higher than they hope to adequate-profitably recover from the sale of their products — http://oil-price.net/ shows how “petrodollar” prices have been generally sagging since about 2022 — as the costs of extraction go up with depletion, if those costs don’t get paid, oil extraction tends to wain — https://davecoop.net/seneca shows how world crude oil extraction has stagnated since about 2018.
“Massless Structural Batteries Will Transform Vehicle Design . . .
Structural batteries are a “massless” alternative to traditional batteries because they are designed to produce and store energy while also serving as a load-bearing part of a vehicle’s structure.”?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Massless-Structural-Batteries-Will-Transform-Vehicle-Design.html
From your link:
The new battery prototype is largely constructed of carbon fiber which serves a multifunctional role as an electrode, conductor, and a load-bearing material that is durable enough to compete with other commonly used construction materials. The breakthrough model is described in detail in an open-access paper published in the scientific journal Advanced Energy & Sustainability Research,
“Previous attempts to make structural batteries have resulted in cells with either good mechanical properties, or good electrical properties,” Leif Asp, Professor at Chalmers and leader of the project, recently explained to Science Daily. “But here, using carbon fibre, we have succeeded in designing a structural battery with both competitive energy storage capacity and rigidity.”
Link to the academic paper:
https://advanced.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/aesr.202000093
It must be cheap to manufacture and put into use, and it must be durable in accidents. It must not present a disposal problem.
We will see if it would work. It supposedly holds a charge for quite a while–more than the 4 hours of a lithium battery.
Fender benders go kaboom.
The average Joe will finally get Explosive Reactive Armour. Dreams do come true.
Ad: car frame, battery, and crematory oven all in one! save 90% on funeral expenses. Google thoughtfully adds a little frame advertising ash urns.
‘ A man whose income depends on pleasing Saudi investors is negotiating the terms of a peace that will determine the value of Saudi investments in Ukrainian agriculture. The same man is simultaneously discussing with BlackRock, a firm that had paused its Ukraine Development Fund in January 2025 due to “uncertainty around Ukraine’s future following Trump’s re-election,” the terms under which it might reinvest. . . .
The rules-based order is revealed as the power-based order it always was, with the rules serving as convenient justification for power’s exercise. . . .
The American-led international order constructed after 1945 rested on a bargain: the United States would provide security, maintain open markets, and uphold a rules-based system; in exchange, allies would support American leadership and adversaries would face consequences for violations. That bargain assumed that American commitments were credible because they were institutionalized, embedded in treaties, organizations, and precedents that transcended individual administrations.
The Peace Through Profit framework dissolves that assumption.’ ?
https://substack.com/home/post/p-181415359
Great points, if you traverse time a bit into the past (2-3decades) some of the utmost key concepts were:
– US economy could easily jettison out last segments of its former industrial base because that “new Asia” (aka China, SKorea, .. ) would take over that kiddies play – yet their eventual future ambitions (gov, currency, mil security..) would be again easily under the thumb of the un-shuttered US global power..
– RU itself or at least it’s near perimeter ( “-stans” ) balkanized which guarantees abundant cheap energy for ever..
– EURos supplying posh higher end goods while importing US weapon systems; well not going swell TODAY when dropping fast in world’s pecking / industrialized list of nations in similar fashion..
..
.
PS that merely theoretical and time deferred / over-distant eventuality of asserting full spectrum ambitions (own govs, money, mil security) of the 2nd world (China, BRICS, .. ) arrived NOW-ish and US can’t guard even the key naval trade choke points at all times any longer..
But again [ mega trends ] are what they are – big sumo like bullies moving glacially slowly, so the process is evidently / undeniably in motion already but certainly NOT mature enough nor concluded yet.
That was the theory.
When frozen sovereign assets become weapons, when real estate developers negotiate nuclear settlements, and when the guardians of dollar hegemony become its liquidators, we are witnessing not merely the end of a conflict but the unraveling of everything built since 1945.
We are now living in a musical chairs world, without enough chairs. The rules have disappeared.
In the western world it’s forbidden for men to retire.
https://x.com/its_The_Dr/status/1999573674362315176
I expect that sometime after capital controls hit the non-US private banking system, legislations will get passed that allow deposits to be released for (international) stablecoin purchases that will be a major dynamic in replacing the private banking system with a de facto USD reserve currency public banking system. That way the banking systems of countries outside of the US can be allowed to collapse without leaving a total purchasing power vacuum.
So more promises will fix the problem? Maybe? I am not sure about this.
It will still be much fewer net promises. As foreign countries experience high inflation on the road to hyperinflation, they will want to try and maximize the stabilizing benefits of USD stablecoins to their own troubled currency, just like is the case in VZ and other countries right now. Financial collapse happens on a faster timeline than energy collapse. That’s why we believe in the Senecan cliff. Enabling purchases of stablecoins (t-bills) with otherwise frozen foreign bank deposits in exchange for, say, the US recycling some agreed on percentage of the purchases via MMT creation back into those foreign banks in order to replace the lost collateral will serve to eliminate the withdrawal demands (bank runs) of the depositors that caused the capital controls in the first place, and the recycled dollars will help partially recapitalize them.
If half of all VZ transactions under 10K right now are in stablecoins, then we can assume VZ would probably be experiencing hyperinflation right now instead of 230% inflation or whatever it is. The VZ situation right now is surely a pilot program just like the Gaza situation is a long-term pilot program for city-sized rationing logistics. We’re just talking a super turbulent glide path option for financial collapse within the large civilizational glide path attempt by the DA.
Even despite the warpspeed rise of stablecoins, there’s still going to be a lag before they really come into their own. Like I’ve said, my WAG is that we’re facing an 80% drop in global GDP within a couple years. That’s a lot fewer promises in a very short period of time. US GDP dropped 30% during the great depression. Global trade dropped by 50%. Everyone is far, far more dependent on international trade now.
Gail I know that you don’t like to make future predictions but are we going to see a supply glut in for 2026 and then a decrease in supply in 2027? I’m a bit confused…
“a supply glut in for 2026 and then a decrease in supply in 2027.”
I think that that is a distinct possibility.
In fact, even with a decrease in supply, there may be a supply gut in 2027 as well.
The problem is an affordability one. Demand disappears.
Look at Revelation 18:11-13, talking about how end times will be like the collapse of Babylon.
11 “The merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her because no one buys their cargoes anymore— 12 cargoes of gold, silver, precious stones and pearls; fine linen, purple, silk and scarlet cloth; every sort of citron wood, and articles of every kind made of ivory, costly wood, bronze, iron and marble; 13 cargoes of cinnamon and spice, of incense, myrrh and frankincense, of wine and olive oil, of fine flour and wheat; cattle and sheep; horses and carriages; and human beings sold as slaves.
‘Supply glut’ equals ‘peak oil demand.’ Makes sense to ride that horse into the ground.
LOL.
That sounds more like the Hebrews punishing
I mean, the Hebrew God,
a group of Gentiles for misbehaving than some ancient description of economic collapse.
We have no idea if any ancient society experienced a collapse in demand so severe, merchants in cities could not sell any thing..
Collapse has happened over and over again, throughout history. It relates to population outgrowing the resources of a given areas. Read the problems that the prophet of the Old Testament wrote about. Babylon certainly collapsed.
I find it hard to believe that someone would make up a story about not even having a market for slaves, which was the energy product of the day.
Great point about energy-slaves indeed!
Perhaps, one of the key motivations to put it (and keep it) in the written record in contrast-competition to other memorable, notable events.. yet of lesser impact-significance.
I don’t think you understood the gist of what I said. It is unclear as to whether it was Gentiles who could not sell their goods and services or was were Hebrews themselves themselves unable to sell their goods and services.
The Abrahamic religions have a habit of showing misfortune happening to specific groups, not everyone. Economic collapse, for the enemies of the Hebrews but not the Hebrews seems plausible.
guest
Lol guest. Way to take a secular reading of the Bible literally. Sales went from normal to zero. Next verse:
14 the cargoes of gold and silver could not purchase a grain of wheat
Welcome to dollar deflation.
Hm, that sounds more as bordering on trade-barrier / intentional blockade though.. possibly following previous deflationary slump (or war combo) period..
Or, this could be the result of boycotts by God’s chosen people.
or the result of a famine.
If food is in short supply, all the money in the world, would not be able to purchase many grains of wheat.
Governments and individuals conspired to debase currencies throughout history for various reasons.
and the proper term would be
“dollar inflation” .
The Bible story, if true, could have multiple causes but collapse isn’t one of them.
In a true collapse scenario, goods , services would disappear and would not just be available at high prices.
Collapse is having a sack full of gold but nothing to buy with that gold.
Collapse is not having jobs that pay well enough to keep the system going. There are a few rich people, and a whole lot of poor people. The poor people cannot afford much of anything other than the very basics, if that. Mining gold cannot keep the rest of the economy operating. It is the lack of buying power of the vast majority of the population that brings the system down.
jak I made up verse 14 myself in case it wasn’t clear. “No one buys” doesn’t imply trade barriers or blockades because internal markets still exist with external barriers and blockades.
If Trump goes to war with Venz it will likely spike the oil price like back 1990 with Bush.
*read my lips
We will see.
look at what the elders have accomplished as long as the dow does not burst we can keep this sucker going indefinitely ai will assist and so will many other technological marvels enhanced oil recovery in the permian and monte shale oil basins has kept this sucker from imploding and give us enough time to get the venezualan shale oil .So the deflation can be reversed with more energy inputs who thought the shale could ever save us.
Wait what? To me it sounds just like a bigger straw to suck it out faster. I don’t know about AI solving that problem but maybe!
Everyone’s calling for another oil glut…
Funny how every “glut” in history came after years of record investment,
not after a decade of underinvestment.
Top 4 oil gluts in history:
– 1980s: ~5–6 mbpd -> prices crashed 70%
– 2014–16: ~2 mbpd -> prices crashed 76%
– 2020: 5 mbpd -> prices went negative
– 2026: 4 mbpd -> based on sentiment, prices will go negative again
Meanwhile…
– Supply growth is flat.
– Demand rising
– Capex is still below 2014 levels.
– Decline rates rising
But sure… let’s call it a glut .
https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/1999162836560294140
At current oil prices, drilling new wells is barely profitable.
Why does that matter?
– Shale wells ramp up fast but decline even faster
– Global decline rates have doubled over the last 20 years
– Shale alone accounts for almost 50% of global decline rates
As a result, the US has over 1 million producing wells… 3× more than the rest of the world combined.
But without new drilling, decline rates will take over.
https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/1999449221582246000
Rabobank calls “bullshit” on the oil glut meme.
2026 looks oversupplied, but from an abnormally tight starting point…
…and with powerful feedbacks that limit the downside.
Think volatile $50–60 Brent, not a durable new $30–40 world.
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/1999450325153988953/photo/1
Speaking of the increase in oil on water: while multiple factors contributed to this increase, disruptions and sanctions played a role.
Floating storage of petroleum products is still well below the 2025 peaks seen in April and early May—before any concerns emerged about a massive oil surplus in Q4 and 2026.https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/1999349256268972254/photo/1
Brazil’s November oil drop was mostly a temporary outage story, not a structural peak.
I’m skeptical about the South America growth narrative
@maridurao
Guyana, yes–maybe 1.2 mmb/d.
Brazil, a little–maybe 0.3 mmb/d
Argentina, big potential but Argentina.
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/1999259001918480873
The ‘teflon’ oil market:
US seizes Venezuelan oil tankers — meh
Ukraine attacks Russian ‘dark ship’ vessels — meh
Trump sanctions Russian oil companies – meh
Ukraine damages Kazakh oil port – meh
https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/1999034060480315544
can alot more oil be gotten from venezuala if the USA takes over than it currently is producing is that why trump is trying to get rid of the drug cartels in venezuala
I think the issue in Venezuela is that the oil the country is pumping is now going disproportionately to China because of previous debts to China. Getting the oil back from China will be difficult.
It sounds like China is trying to increase oil production in China. That may be another obstacle.
Yes, more oil can flow and was flowing, until the U.S started interfering with its made up lies and economic war on the civilian population(sanctions). China hasn’t invested in the oil fields to lose money, they have invested because there is a long term supply and not just of oil.
Remember Venezuela is one of the largest Chinese investments, coming after only the US, Russia and Australia(if I remember correctly).
There has only ever been one “cartel” operating in Venezuela and that “cartel” is called the CIA, not the silly hollywood name conjured up for the gullible western audience(even the US government’s reports are clear about Venezuela’s lack of cartels and drug running).
This whole thing has been decades in the making, just read up on Citgo and Elliott investments and look at the timing.
https://pete843.substack.com/p/another-war-for-oil-in-the-making?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/us-judge-authorizes-sale-of-venezuelas-citgo-to-vulture-fund-elliott/
Of course the orange imbecile gets his facts wrong as usual, because if these words of his were true
“it’s land strikes on horrible people that are bringing in drugs and killing our people,”
He’d be preparing to bomb Langley, rather than innocent civilians thousands of miles away, that just want the US to FO.
If anyone in the west thinks that the Venezuelan population will accept the Horror Whore taking power, I feel they are in for a terrible awakening(assuming they can see past the hollywood sheen, so unlikely).
Strange place the west, as the Nobel Peace winner and the President of Peace can’t stop talking about slaughtering genocidal numbers of innocents and most don’t even see a contradiction.
I’ll raise a large glass, if the Venezuelans send some of the murderers to their maker and the rest scurrying, à la Ansarallah.
VZ regime change war is just another misdirection play Fitz. And another setup for the Gabbard smackdown, presumably along with the Epstein deal. She’s always been vehemently opposed to meddling in VZ affairs back to Chavez’s days. It’s just another bee in her bonnet
Misdirection, for 26 years, just waiting for a no mark fraud with breasts(another Horror Whore)?
I don’t see it. There’s a siege happening now, which will expand, so expect some bombing(cruise missiles probably, as they might be worried about planes not returning). The US has and continues to commit acts of illegal war against a sovereign state, which is not misdirection.
Maduro will not step down, because Maduro can’t step down. Despite his faults Maduro would never turn his back on Nuestra América. US planners know this and that’s why we’ve had all these imbecilic demands, dressed up as offers from Maduro(a show to continue the conditioning of the western herd mind). Maduro and Trump have spoken. During that short conversation, Trump got very agitated, very quickly and that was the end of conversing. Ask yourself why.
The Venezuelan people will never accept a corporate place person(even with breasts). They don’t accept fascism, however much lipstick you paint on that deathly pig. Go back and read about what happened when the (stooge)generals arrested Chavez. Venezuelans understand where true power really lies and they are willing to face the toil involved when taking that path again.
https://www.multipolarpress.com/p/exile-is-not-an-option-for-maduro
What’s Trump going to do if all those tankers re-register to a Chinese flag?
Seize a Chinese registered tanker and it will make the last round of restrictions look like childs play. Let’s not forget that Trump had to go cap in hand, very quickly, when his owners realised what the Chinese had done and also let’s not forget the timing of those restrictions in relation to Venezuela.
If successful, Columbia and then Nicaragua are next and that’s unacceptable, as you’re now getting close to disturbing some of the best coffee growing soil on the planet, which no civilised person should tolerate(prices have already skyrocketed).
Pray for abject failure.
A failure as large as the failure of western people to protect their own inner thoughts and so have their perception distorted to any design.
“Imperial Collapse is a process, not merely an exclamation point… & in said process, there are a myriad of fairy tales invented to soften the inevitable blow & shame that is heralded by the brute realities of the Long Decline at the Twilight of Empire.”
“A nation wholly obsessed with invasion & Replacement… fell to phones & knock-off laptops bought beside paan stalls by slum-dwellers working their second job!
Their voices, ever crass & erratic… were merely drowned out by replies typed by bot swarms… swarms deployed by bored night-shift workers in Mumbai, New Delhi & elsewhere who saw the opportunity for easy money, clicks & impressions… & took it.”
https://www.multipolarpress.com/p/india-has-already-replaced-america?lli=1&utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
The inner recesses of the western mind, completely owned by slum dwellers.
Rutte head of NATO warns of long war of pain and suffering. I disagree 20 minutes of nukes and the suffering is ended.
Mertz say he must have control of Italy’s budget and the remnants of Italy industry must prop up German car making.
Europe has gone completely mad.
“Europe has gone completely mad.”
I agree. It is losing in the contest for energy.
Totally agree! They don’t know how to react. Everything is contradictory. No one seems to have a long-term perspective.
Many people think there is a secret plan.
If you have a secret plan, then you have to make preparations to put it into effect at an unknown time.
I do not see these preparations!
The possibility of a new pandemic including a lockdown has been prepared, as well as the possibility of a war, as well as the possibility of expropriating citizens’ money and gold.
This does not look like a sufficient long-term strategy to me!
Well, at least Israel is going well. That is the most important thing.
Or else we’d all be on the fast-track to eternal suffering and punishment in the afterlife.
Isn’t Europe in trouble because they have no real GDP? China doesn’t need there products and that’s increasing rapidly
Devolping story . Russia sues Euro clear .
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russian-central-bank-sues-euroclear-eu-tries-ram-through-assets-seizure-ukraine
History and details .
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/12/russia-counters-eu-shenanigans-to-steal-its-frozen-assets.html#comments
As the Greek duo predicts-analyzed : Ursula would just declare that court’s eventual decision not binding-relevant at all, end of story. At worst (next round xy) all member states would just ponny up few/dozen billions each towards the EU Commission pot – which would then settle the case at given jurisdiction-location. But that’s years away – aka in her mind “..What? me worry?.. , nope! ” Meanwhile expect EU direct taxation scheme phasing in.. as another additional income for them..
This is not possible because the constitution of the EU is not democratic. It is not one-man one-vote, because Germany would then be too dominant. There is therefore a reservation from many constitutional courts that concerns the EU. The EU cannot spend money and the states have to pay it. The governments in the EU Council cannot change the constitution, this requires referendums.
The problem will soon end up in the courts – and probably lead to Hungary, Slovenia, Italy and possibly Austria and Poland leaving the EU. If Italy leaves, Spain will follow suit.
This means that Merz would not only have to conduct a “preemptive strike” against Moscow, as NATO has just speculated, but Hungary and Italy would also have to leave.
Or they do it like in Romania and declare the winner of the election a Putin friend and cancel the election.
The populations are completely paralyzed, there is not even any criticism to be expected from there.
But that doesn’t work, that’s complete economic madness!
I recently bought some Persimmon seedlings from a Polish lady in her 70’s and spent an hour asking her for information on the history of foreign influence during and post-WWII. She sounded a lot like my grandfather whose brother was killed by the Japanese, a lot of resentment towards the Ukrainian migrants and Khazarians competing for resources and carving out new roles in politics, agriculture and the economy.
Jan, I’m sorry your case of EU-fracturing could be realistically applied only after some future / further rounds of [ lived through ] economic and geo-political instability – crisis for those enlisted EU member states.
Austria, Slovenia, or Italy simply won’t put their union membership on the table at this very stage. HU and SK with due respect to their open defiance are too small and will this teary road plow for some time more on their very own..
I know it could sound silly from future retrospect “fighting” about few yrs or half-decades – but we are simply NOT there yet..
“The European Central Bank has also long cautioned that if Europeans start grabbing other nations’ money, it could undermine confidence in the euro currency. To review, the assets were frozen shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine:”
The Euro is certainly going to be hyperinflating against the dollar and this quote represents one of the historical talking points that will provide political cover for the actual fact that the Euro is hyperinflating against the dollar due to the dollar being an increasingly hard currency pegged to collapsing energy production and the Euro being a fiat monetary derivative.
Grabbing Russia’s money is a bad precedent.
It used to be the other way around, few decades ago..
EUR was specifically constructed against the threat – likely outcome of eventually guaranteed USD hyperinflation.
Comparatively serious people at the helm, either direct WWII veterans or aftermath close eyewitnesses. Picture the last good German Chancellor Schroeder – recalled how they as kids played in the late 40s early 50s around some of the few remaining post war rubble piles, personal friend of the Vlad as well. Good times..
Then those small e elites just got led down the garden path and into a long-term M&A trap. The guarantee was always dollar deflation because the petrodollar is just a proxy for energy inflation that turns over into energy deflation at the limits of growth. Hindsight is always 20/20, unless your the Hand.
We shall see, but given that recently accelerated “US” print fest in $2T under a year! – I simply doubt that even ~likely transition into energy deflation would save the day. This would have to be say under +20yrs span of deflationary period incl. very wise management. Not theoretically impossible, but realistically speaking unlikely at this overall stage of ours.
I guess, more likely outcome is ~semi-hard fracturing of the global trade, simply goods / energy don’t arrive anymore to places as they used to..
Moreover, that continuous strange interplay of [ RU-India ] vs [ RU-China ], which one assumed should end or diminish soon (with the US ~demise) but instead it’s evidently very alive again. Chiefly by that renewed RU-India top mil coop / and not in ~old warez! -> speaks more to that general fracturing -> “islanding” scenario as it were..
Yet inflation is subsiding right now. And it isn’t a print fest. Treasury auctions are proceeding space and the sizes of those auctions are based on the government budget to which you referred. There is no QE right now.
We’re not talking about deflation saving the day we’re talking about the deflationary collapse of the privatized reserve currency of industrial civilization.
proceeding apace
Addendum> for some reason yours above “VZ” post was not showing for me earlier, hence I did not fully get your argument..
Yes, throwing EURos under the proverbial bus (~first) will have global implication also in the sense you portrait, i.e. US able strong arm for a while longer via deflationary period (novel) tools, obviously nothing guaranteed..
In this very debate also worth looking at that postkey’s linked article – the political spin is atrocious (well int-NGO author hah) – but partially sound-valuable analysis it is at its core after-all..
https://substack.com/home/post/p-181415359
–
reante’s VZ example: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2025/12/04/too-many-promises-too-few-future-physical-goods/comment-page-3/#comment-496777
Either my post wasn’t there for you because of the chronic shadowbanning (not by Gail but by the Hand’s minions, which in my experience can require multiple refreshings of the page to circumvent) or because of the time difference between the timestamp and publishing is how long Gail slept for while the comment sits in the moderation folder.
It’s not about anyone throwing Europe under the bus. It’s just the structural nature of the situation. Euros are a fiat currency insufficiently linked to energy collateral, so the only choice is to increase the money supply in order to purchase deflating dollars, especially now that Eurodollar have been effectively re-shored by the Degrowth Agenda since 2020, by putting selected deposits on the same footing. That aforementioned Euro insufficiency has always been circumvented by the ‘US allowing’ (which would presumably be your political assessment of the dynamic whereas for me there is no national will anymore once fully fledged globalization has emerged and then just evolves supranationally) European banks to lend Eurodollars, which is the parallel reserve currency dollar system. Realize that the dollar is a global currency in the truest sense. It is not an American currency. Furthermore, the eurodollar has historically had a structural profitability advantage over the dollar because they are unsecured and have no reserve requirements. European banks can carry out yen carry trades for themselves by creating unsecured eurodollar. Last decade they could carry out fully in-house euro carry trades with created eurodollar. Shell game magic.
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/05/who-is-borrowing-and-lending-in-the-eurodollar-and-selected-deposit-markets/#:~:text=The%20Federal%20Reserve%20collects%20data,billion%20for%20overnight%20fed%20funds.
When we realize that the dying Eurodollar is a(n even larger) parallel currency to the US dollar, we can begin to see how stablecoins can become a parallel currency to the dollar. The off-shored Eurodollar is getting phased out for not just onshore stablecoins, but also public stablecoins under public-private partnership with Tether and Circle, at least for now.
Europe was evidently nudged to jump in that UKR catastrophe with both feet-legs so to speak, the burn at the US side is comparatively minimal.
From now (threat of int. lawsuits at many global $clearing hubs involving +BRICS trades) the outflow of funds parked in EUR domiciles away would turn into a gusher soon..
I get your argument that in [ largest scale zoom out view ] it is about EUR/EU’s structural situation, especially now with restraining their main hydrocarbon supplier (not having own oil/natgas reserves at scale), but the overall game-plans was clearly a setup from the US side/ruling faction as in offloading the risks on junior partner at crime – should it eventually (surprise!) turn unsuccessful.
Btw. it’s on FEDs own webpage that over-issuance of T-bills (auction windows etc) is not strictly speaking govs ~directly printing money..
Sorry, that’s clearly attempted spin..for a reason.. As that redirection of inflation (possibility / likely-hood in future inflation spike would destroy this model at some unknown near astronomic runaway scale). In my book [ the game ] is essentially about surviving each of the next (worst) inflationary spike episode into which they have to also borrow – it worked for several instances, so far. But there must be a limit out there in the space-time.. I get it you assume no serious inflation spike-period ever to return again (under this setting) – I doubt it..
+many summary articles ala following:
—
Binance News
Dec 9・Verified Binance official account
AI Summary
The U.S. Treasury’s issuance of T-Bills has surged, reflecting a growing reliance on short-term debt for financing. This trend suggests that rising inflation could lead to elevated interest costs, exacerbating the debt crisis.
According to BlockBeats, the U.S. Treasury has issued a record $25.4 trillion in T-Bills over the past 12 months, bringing the total issuance to an unprecedented $36.6 trillion. T-Bills, short-term zero-coupon bonds with maturities of one year or less, now account for 69.4% of the total U.S. national debt issuance, nearing historical highs.
This trend indicates that the U.S. government is increasingly relying on short-term debt to finance its long-term obligations. Consequently, the interest expenses on public debt are now closely aligned with the Federal Reserve’s policy rates. Should inflation rise again, prompting the Federal Reserve to increase rates, interest costs could reach unprecedented levels.
The U.S. debt crisis is intensifying.
—
Maybe you should ask yourself why we are suddenly in a bill-centric world. Maybe because there is no future? You ever think of that?
Welcome to the Fed front running imminent deflation. You can doubt all you want, but the longer you do, the more thrills you will miss out on.
Like I said a week or two ago: the Hand is a prepper. That’s why there’s a six year old DA.
QE is a macroeconomic stimulus via long duration bond purchases. Not t-bills purchases. The t-bills purchases are NOT ‘not-QE’ as the politicized Zerohedge would have it. (Not that QE is incompatible with deflation; it will be instrumental in keeping the US government from defaulting on its existing, increasingly-expensive-to-service long bonds during deflation).
And why has the Treasury already been issuing (not “over-issuing”) so many t-bills? Because they’re cheap. It can’t afford as much expensive debt. So yes, you’re absolutely right, the country’s debt crisis is intensifying.
See this excellent article on the Fed’s purchases. Notice the part where he talks about increasingly collateral intensive financial markets. That will become a huge theme during dollar deflation, because existing collateral will become worth less because the nominal debts attached to them will become worth more in real terms, so lenders, to the degree that they are still lending, will require more and more collateral.
https://goghieas.substack.com/p/t-bills-and-rmps-still-not-qe
Yes, thanks for guide me/us through that particular path of argument – assessment of situation in deflationary bust grand finale.
Although, I was not referring to QE at all, merely still doubting that pictured scenario of flawless continuous deflationary path-flow during said bust.
As we know from (civ-)human’s history (at crisis) it’s always a bumpy-spike ride of intertwined detours along the way, e.g. longish inflationary spike interrupted by short deflationary periods and vice versa – meant even in the long/er term horizon context.
In terms of collateral, setting aside the obvious forms in troubled times, what kind of performance are you expecting from real estate ? I’m trying now in elevated priority to offload there as quickly as possible, given the absolute knock down of the pedestal hit Europe is going to experience in short order.. However, this mega trend could be on hold for some mid term horizon (1-3-5yrs), as both the investing (incl. parts of banking sector) and general public at large WON’T believe in ~quick perma deflationary crash being imminent EVER..
Thanks, I know you weren’t making an argument that QE was underway. The real value of RE is at its peak. At least in the US, but presumably everywhere else that there’s also an affordability crisis, which is presumably everywhere. Sounds like you’re acting accordingly. If I were you I’d price them aggressively. I would certainly not offer owner financing if I was able to because I would not want to be caught dead in the position of repo-ing a house from out under someone caught unawares. That would be a truly rotten thing to do. Behavior that should be left to soulless money-changers lest one become one oneself.
Well, seeing is believing, and as Nicole Foss always rightly maintained, fear beggars belief. And it’s not Joe Sixpack’s fear that matters, it’s institutional fear that matters.
There seem to be rare earth minerals that can be extracted in Western Siberia. In theory, these rare earth minerals could either go east to China, or west, through Turkey, to the US. There is a plan in place for the US to try to broker a deal which will allow these minerals to be developed and sent to the US. A new railway will be needed to allow this to happen.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trans-siberian-railway-poised-play-pivotal-role-joint-russian-us-projects
The US’ management of Turkish-Russian tensions in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, which was proposed here as part of a larger NATO-Russian Non-Aggression Pact, could lead to the merger of its planned rare earth mineral (REM) investments in Central Asia and related post-Ukraine joint projects in Russia. Regarding the first, Trump clinched such deals with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan during the latest C5+1 Summit in DC, while the second were described by the Wall Street Journal in a recent report. . .
Amidst the Sino-US rivalry, the US has an interest in obtaining access to Russian resources that ipso facto denies them to China, whose superpower trajectory would be turbocharged by unlimited access at bargain-basement prices like would otherwise be the case without robust US competition. This makes the proposed arrangement of grand strategic importance to the US, which is why it should broker an end to the Ukrainian Conflict and then manage Turkish-Russian tensions in Central Asia without delay.
I don’t se th need to go through Turkey. You probably mean through the straits from Novorossiisk. Going through Turkey implies a change in rail gauge.
I probably didn’t understand.
Pipe dream .
Will companies actually line up to buy all of this AI output? I know that Georgia (where I live) is talking about adding massive electricity supply to service a huge increase in data centers. But there are major question marks with respect to whether there will be enough buyers, willing to pay enough for AI output, to support these centers.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fermi-craters-50-after-losing-first-tenant-its-massive-texas-data-center
Fermi Craters 50% After Losing First Tenant For Its Massive Texas Data Center
Fermi America announced their first potential tenant for the Project Matador data center campus terminated their $150 million Advance in Aid of Construction agreement (i.e., lease). The stock has plunged as much as 50% in premarket trading in what is a wild overreaction with unprecedented demand for data center space (especially data centers named after the president) still offset with limited supply.
Several weeks ago, we documented Fermi’s difficulties with signing their first major tenant last month for their President Donald J. Trump Advanced Energy and Intelligence campus in Texas, set to become the world’s largest mixed-use data center. Co-founded by former Texas Governor and Secretary of Energy Rick Perry, the company has yet to close a deal with a data center developer for their massive 11 GW campus outside of the Pentax facility.
What is bizarre, is that the company is on track to bring hundreds of megawatts on line for the site by the beginning of next year, has 6 GW of gas turbine power already permitted, and is currently progressing with the NRC to allow the construction of 4 AP1000 reactors. Yet somehow there isn’t a line of potential customers around the block desperate for rack space. At least not yet, although we expect that will change once Trump tweets about it.
Oracle, OpenAI, and Nvidia: the insatiable “Bermuda Triangle” that swallows all invested capital…
https://justdario.com/2025/12/ai-is-becoming-oracles-little-bighorn/
Merci , Quark .
Oracle looks like it is increasingly heading for huge problems. In fact, if Nvidia is becoming the lender of last resort, it can’t keep its current growth rate going.
”Recently, Oracle got an IOU for a future $300 billion from a company with negative cashflow and negative projections (OpenAI), but all the stock markets analysts and all the money men don’t see anything wrong with this, because they’re all fucking in on it. Oracle’s stock jumped the GDP of a medium country immediately, and now came back below where they started, once the pump and dump was complete. ”
https://indi.ca/the-pump-and-dump-economy/
Strange world we live in. A bubble economy that it is necessary to let the air out of slowly.
The Predicament demands it. If there’s no more bubble economy there’s no more coffee and Netflix and whisky and dining out and airplane rides and philandering. Finance Capitalism doesn’t need the air let out of slowly so long as the Hand has a backup plan. The bigger the pop the more virulently national socialist will be the population. Phase 2 will be TEOTWAWKI. Andrew Ross Sorkin the biggest mainstream financial commentator released a book this year comparing the Roaring 20s to today and the titans of industry turning into titans of money ending, pump and dump collusion culture of the Roaring 20s, and how Americans didn’t used to believe in borrowing money or gambling in markets, and the great tradition of cash under the mattress. That’s structural anti-Semitism in the direction of Nick Fuentes. Left Conservatism.
In August 2024, I wrote this article:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/08/21/todays-economy-is-like-that-of-the-late-1920s/
Yeah exactly I mean we can see exactly what the Hand is doing. During Biden it converted the dissident Right and Independents into a quasi doomer-lite politics and now it’s doing exactly the same with the Liberals, including the Liberal small-e elite. We, here, are getting co-opted because we represent the truth. That was always going to happen. And this is extremely significant: they did none of this ahead of the GFC.
How do you forestall total civilizational collapse with the implementation of a Phase 2 of a non-public Degrowth Agenda? By providing political cover for total civilizational Collapse once economic collapse can no longer be forestalled. By programming people to believe that the economic collapse is just another Great Depression and bears no relation to total civilizational Collapse. So they have to predictively program a garden variety depression into peoples’ minds.
Compartmentalization.
reante> you are on the roll, great series of post about the re-alignment, thanks.
I’d agree, although we have to left some minor statistical %room for the option that the now seemingly TEOTWAWKI turn (~2026-2035) would be eventually cleared into some “opportunity” via yet another GFC_ver.xy along the way..
For one thing, the Chinese govs publicly announced (not in ~young girlz magazine~) energy breakthrough in the general-topical realm of fusion, strangely no (directional) details-hints provided at all. So, realistically that could mean ~2050 onset of full-scale grid deployment at best.
Obviously, lot of intervening events could come well before that like GFCs, world wars etc., then after the pause returning on the path. So, general skepticism for the win either way as always.
Thanks jak. If it’s a minor statistical possibility then it’s not really worth mentioning is it? Especially after such a nice comment lol.
If a competent little c conservative sees so much as a 5pc risk of exposure to catastrophe, he or she will move heaven and earth to insulation themself from that catastrophe. Which puts a 5% chance that catastrophe won’t happen into the category of not even worth mentioning.
But I’m an all or nothing person because that’s where the maximization of potential lies.
such a nice compliment
(I need to make more of an effort to proofread for the autofill mistakes)
Reante> on the minor statistical probability, well it depends..
On the face of it the following seemingly could be interpreted as gross unjustifiable smear attempt on our gracious host Gail T. but it fits and drills into that general %prob narrative question – paradox.
Basically, the statistical chance this very [ ourfin..world.com ] outfit was at some point or nowadays still is a honeypot for intel gatherings – testing / (the hand’s) as you say – are not null, actually are quite high: ~3-7% in my silly estimation.
For one thing, this is the world’s most condensed public discussion place in the genre. The signal to noise ratio over here is minimal, despite the commentariat also freely engaged all the time in various short detour tangentials and normal personal biases..
Notice that in comparison: Surplus’s commentariat while great is not that diverse, at Honest-B’s the noise is way higher people there not laser focused on the topic, .. , Kunstler although well aware and occasionally injecting-mentioning the topic remains chiefly more or less social issues / politics commentator , .. etc.
/end of paranoid & statistics interlude
Probably meant to replace public administration, customer services, health services and military services.
Where does the energy come from and what will the people work instead?
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Nuclear War won’t mean the end of the world
https://youtu.be/R9D9kdMWCQM?si=fhe-Cfpmwfb1SOkm
The first 30 min has everything which is worth remembering. The rest is tripe.
The author, Mark A. Rush, says he was a nuclear sub captain.
Basically, this guy’s point is that
1 There are not as many nukes as there used to be.
2 Because precision bombing had improved, it is not necessary to have big, bad bombs.
3. The chief strategy of nuclear launches nowdays is to disable the other side’s nukes. So military targets will be the priority, and civil targets like big cities are secondary.
4. Since big, bad nukes won’t be used, there would be no nuclear winter or mass dieoff as promoted by Annie Jacobsen.
5. Even if there are nuclear attacks, if one can shield for 14 days, it would probably be OK.
Since the social disruptions after the nukes are not his specialty he has little worthwhile to talk about these, but at least the first 30 min is worth listening to.
The other issue is that the materials for nuclear bombs are in short supply. It can better be used to power nuclear power plants. No one wants to waste available materials on nuclear bombs.
Also, continuing trade with China and Russia is a priority. Bombing them is not. If nuclear bombs are used, they will be used to “take down” declining powers in Europe.
Why in Europe?
The stoopidest possible thing to do is to target another’s nuclear launch sites. A real, honest to goodness, non- engineered nuclear war would just see two countries trading single nuclear blows in a very deliberate fashion until one of them wasn’t able to continue. A non-public (via back channels), highly regulated (by multiple third parties) nuclear duel is the only way that nuclear war between truly independent actors can be realistically waged, no different from a pistol duel at ten paces. It could also be that, as with many pistol duels that were singleshot duels (one bullet each only) a limited format could be agreed to by all parties involved. If the Big Nuclear Scare is not an asymmetrical affair but a direct conflict, and it involves nuclear weapons (as opposed to only nuclear power plants, then it will presumably be a single-shot duel.
The US doesn’t have enough nuclear bombs in operating condition to even think about some fancy approach like this. Maybe Russia does. China needs to trade with everyone else.
I still say that nuclear bombs will not play a role, or they will only be used against countries that are already failing.
The fluid world (history) in motion..
I’d would have never guessed that most of these tips could be eventually de-laborated (rather quickly) into NPP fuel pellets. Yet, it happened due to various logical forcing among the participating countries and their dissimilar setting – meaning US let their program atrophy-fizzle out, while in contrast the RU made it a key priority.
In a way it was a legacy item from the past reality of ~abundant energy endowments say till mid 1970-80s.. to acquire such expensive toyz in overly large number of copies.
I think that’s a sound call Gail. The nuclear power plants are ticking tine bombs already so nuclear weapons aren’t necessary for a BNS but the Hand does like to stack functions as well as Go Big. And nuclear weapon deployment would emphasize the need for the Global Peace Accords that follow the BNS and, following that, the universally cooperative anti-war politics of Phase 2 which is otherwise known as Tribulations to our post-Trib Christian brethren. Yes, failing Israel and Ukraine do appear to be the front runners. A nuke dropped on the Knesset would symbolically represent the real peace treaty of Revelations. I do not endorse this comment.
Both Germany and NATO have been discussing the possibility of a “preemptive strike” against Moscow for some time. Even before his election, Merz demanded the delivery of Taurus missiles to Ukraine, which would be a de facto attack by Germany on Russia, since the missiles cannot be operated by Ukrainians.
Russia has stated that an attack by Germany could trigger the nuclear option.
I can’t imagine what advantage a nuclear contamination of Germany could bring in the long term.
I can’t imagine what advantage a nuclear contamination of Germany could bring in the long term, that the EU is so eager to provoke it.
Perhaps in order to create an argument for the Americans for the destruction of Russia, in order to appropriate Russian resources for themselves?
What advantage would this have that trading did not have?
Army and state: power and impoverishment of Egypt
Sissi, nouveau pharaon d’Égypte
https://youtu.be/n6LxvIQbd78?si=Lbl-2XxslMMNIBQL
Horrible population and debts everywhere…
“Not available in the US.”
Egypt is long past peak oil production. Population rose when oil extraction rose. Now Egypt has way too many people for its limited energy supplies.
Jeff Snider at the Eurodollar University explains why US gasoline prices are so low. The big problem is inadequate demand. The US economy is worse than economists are willing to tell us. The shape of the futures curve says that the expectation is that the oil price will go lower.
If 4 million people were ICE or self-deported, that’s ~1% of the population, so one should expect a slight decrease in demand no matter what. Presumably those people will make less money wherever they go, which means they will consume less, not just move where the consumption happens. This is a good thing for us here.
Yes but isn’t there a direct correlation between oil consumption and GDP? I think Art Berman has pointed this out numerous times… this would lead me to believe that we are already in recession.
The world has been in a recession since the GFC of 2008 . After that the system has been in a coma and on life support with vast injections of financial bubbles and the printer going full speed .
That is a good summary of the situation. The world has been existing on a larger and larger injection of debt since 2008. Actual energy consumption growth has been muted.
How does this debt bubble gradually go down? We don’t know yet. I don’t think everything fails simultaneously. That would leave too many resources that can be reached, untouched. Lower commodity prices would gradually lower production. Debt bubbles will pop, here and there. At some point, banks and other institutions will start feeling the pain of popping debt bubbles.
“ controlled collapse “ I think that would work if it was just one country or region but I am afraid it is going to happen everywhere
Somehow, the self-organizing system seems to keep the whole system from falling down too quickly. Collapse comes through too low prices for commodities, because “demand” is not high enough. With these lower prices, poorer people can continue to buy, at least a little. This continued buying power at a lower price keeps the system from going down as quickly as a person might think.
The goal is to slowly let the air out of the balloon without it flying away.
Interesting analogy.
Well that was fun while it lasted. We appear to be back well below the November 2018 peak. Tranny is lurching. Hopefully it keeps lurching!
“In today’s report, the IEA said that the projected global oil surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025 has narrowed since last month’s report, “as the relentless surge in global oil supply came to an abrupt halt.”
Total global oil supply dipped by 610,000 bpd in November compared to October and by a whopping 1.5 million bpd from September’s all-time high, the IEA noted.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/opec-maintains-bullish-oil-demand-outlook-iea-trims-oil-glut-forecast
IEA and EIA don’t necessarily agree on oil production. But your finding is interesting.
The top seems to be bumpy.
Thanks for the clarification. Too soon to say then. More sour grapes perhaps.
It looks like oil production is plateauing and teetering on the brink before falling off the impending Seneca cliff.
I think this could potentially go on for a few more years since there are some oil producers that are being prevented from boosting production due to sanctions and production limitation agreements. but it is doubtful that oil production can be increased significantly above current levels on a consistent basis, so we can expect continuing efforts to suppress or reduce global demand, either through increasing efficiency throughout the economy, reducing affordability in order to squeeze consumers and choke off demand, or some form of musical chairs to take some consumers, countries, or other players out of the game.
The longer the plateau continues, the steeper the cliff will be when we come to it. This follows from the observation that current reserves are declining daily and reported new finds have been inadequate to replace what is being used for many years now.
However, there are bound to be things that we are not being told. It’s a big game of call my bluff, and all the main players are wearing their best poker faces.
I’m starting to wonder if it might surprise us in the other direction, and they opt for open capitulation. The Headmaster Tim Morgan’s long-time call that private credit will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back is coming to fruition; yesterday in the car NPR had a piece on the risks posed by private credit’s lending to the AI bubble, and today the PBS Newshour did a piece on the same. Here’s the 8min Newshour segment for anyone who wants to spend 8mins that they’ll never get back otherwise.
https://youtu.be/srS-gMN1uRI?si=hoOVoFQC3UPjnn48
The video points out that pension plans and insurance companies selling annuities are participants in offering private credit. Thus, part of the losses from risky private credit will end up with older people who are hoping to get income in their later life.
Of course, government pension plans can’t be expected to do any better.
Not enough stuff to go around, if major wars can be avoided, ends up as a game of musical chairs. And old folks are among the less agile dancers and therefore more likely to loose their chair when the music stops.
“Thus, part of the losses from risky private credit will end up with older people who are hoping to get income in their later life.”
Now it is getting serious.
Dennis L.
This is a major issue. Annuities and pensions are not very safe.
Will The Gulf Monarchies Cut and Run When Oil Export Demand Collapses?
https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/will-the-gulf-monarchies-cut-and?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=571129&post_id=166739079&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=26quge&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Gulf Monarchies have little other way of making money than selling oil supply. They likely will sell at a low price, if that is all that is available. At a low enough price, demand will be relatively higher.
Supply will be reduced, but slowly, IMO. This will be part of the controlled collapse.
Not clear, becaus they will never have it as good as they have it now. I vote like Gail, they will stay in until the very last moment.
As discussed over the years already, the Gulfies have been trying to upgrade / amend their local economies by employing various strategies be it foundation of uni – science parks, congressional tourism, etc..
Nevertheless, it seems the only real payback so far was mostly from various stock market and fund investment strategies abroad. Hence the elevated risk prevails for the future moment of some sort of more profound global dislocation.. as they won’t be able to repatriate said evaporated wealth anymore.