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The underlying problems are energy-related
A few years ago, I analyzed the growth of world energy consumption, breaking it down into (a) the growth in energy consumption needed to support the growth in world population, and (b) the growth in energy consumption available to support higher standards of living. This analysis covered the period 1820 to 2020. I found that periods of low growth tended to coincide with wars, depressions, and collapses. This is not surprising in a world economy governed by the laws of physics. Every part of the economy requires adequate energy of appropriate kinds.
In this post, I analyze data for 5-year periods, ending in 2024, to obtain an updated view of recent energy consumption and population trends. My conclusion is that total energy consumption growth in recent years has not been sufficient to forestall major problems. A more detailed analysis reveals that growth in certain vital resources (the diesel+jet fuel part of oil supply, and critical minerals related to electricity production and usage) is particularly problematic.
These findings indicate that the economy is already beginning to hit energy limits. Because of energy-related shortages that are already being encountered, national economies are beginning to act like the players in a game of musical chairs, with one too few chairs. Leaders have taken to building up armies, cutting off exports of critical minerals, imposing tariffs, and bombing other countries, even though these actions might not make sense to peace-loving citizens.
[1] Figure 2 is a stacked bar chart showing similar indications to Figure 1.
The total of the red and blue segments is the average annual increase in world energy consumption over a particular 10-year period. The blue amounts (usually at the bottom) are those necessary to provide services at the same level as in the past, given the population increase. The red amounts (usually at the top) are determined by subtraction. Large red caps are good, while red caps below the zero line are very bad. They indicate that the per-capita energy supply is declining.
[2] The largest increases in Figure 2 correspond to favorable economic times.
The vertical text in Figure 1 provides examples of how low points in energy consumption have proven to be very bad. In this section, I show that the opposite is also true: High points tend to correspond to very good times economically.
One peak in Figures 1 and 2 coincides with the 1901 to 1910 period. This period corresponds to early electrification and advances in the mechanization of agriculture. It was before 1913 when the United Kingdom hit peak coal, limiting the amount of coal that could be profitably extracted. Germany hit peak hard coal shortly before World War II. After peak coal was reached, less coal was available per capita. Leaders felt the pressure of “not enough coal to go around” and opted for war.
In Figures 1 and 2, rapid energy growth occurred after World War II, during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. The lower peak in the 2001-2010 period coincided with much greater use of coal after China was added to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in late 2001. High-wage countries started transferring their industry to China because costs would be lower in two ways: Wage costs were lower, and coal was an inexpensive fuel, reducing energy costs. Furthermore, by transferring industry, including manufacturing and mining, to China, high-wage countries could also lower their own CO2 emissions, as required by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
We would expect the patterns we are seeing in Figures 1 and 2 if the world economy is governed by the laws of physics. The availability of plenty of inexpensive energy, of kinds that match built infrastructure, is what is needed to allow the world economy to grow.
[3] Figure 3 shows more recent world energy data organized by 5-year periods. It shows how small the “red caps” of the types leading to favorable economic outcomes have been in the last decade.
The latest two 5-year periods comprise the years 2015 to 2024. The short red caps on these two 5-year periods mean that the economy is already being squeezed in the direction of not-enough-to go-around.
[4] Viewed on this same basis, diesel and jet fuel supplies are being squeezed even more than the overall supply of energy products.
Diesel and jet fuel are somewhat similar in composition. They are grouped together in some energy reports as “middle distillates.” They are relatively heavy oil products that come out of oil refineries. If there is a shortage of one, there likely is a shortage of the other as well.
Diesel and jet fuel are of concern because, since 2015, there has been an actual shrinkage in the amount of these fuels available relative to population. In fact, every five-year period since the 2000 to 2004 period has shown less growth in diesel and jet fuel than in the overall world energy supply. (Compare Figures 3 and 4.)
The low growth of diesel+jet fuel is particularly concerning because these fuels are essential for international transportation. With too little of these oil types, trade across the Atlantic and Pacific needs to shrink back. The physics of the situation makes tariffs look like an attractive solution for reducing trade.
Another concern is that diesel is essential for food production and transportation. Even if some other types of energy are available in plentiful supply, we cannot get along without food. While wind and solar are popular energy types today, they are not very useful for either international transport or for operating modern agricultural equipment.
[5] The underlying problem is that populations tend to outgrow their resource bases, including energy supplies.
The issue of the world not being able to support endlessly rising human population is an issue that no politician, auto maker, or economist wants to mention. The standard work-around is to show energy supplies without using an adjustment to a per-capita basis. This tends to make the energy situation look much better than it really is. Figure 6 is an example of such a chart.
Figure 6 emphasizes how modest the recent add-ons to the fossil fuel supply really are. These add-ons are made possible by fossil fuels; they would tend to disappear if fossil fuels were to disappear. Nuclear, which is the largest of the add-ons, requires both uranium and fossil fuels. The category “Wind+Solar” is the tiny green stripe at the top of Figure 6. In 2024, Wind+Solar amounted to 2.8% of world energy supply.
[6] It is easy to make electricity look like a growth area that can continue its pattern forever.
Figure 7 is a world electricity chart that, like Figure 6, is not on a per-capita basis.
There are a few details that are easy to miss:
(a) Current electricity production is quite small compared to the total energy supply. As counted by the Energy Institute, electricity amounts to only about 20% of total energy, varying by year and by part of the world. It is already incorporated in Figure 6.
(b) Almost all the non-fossil fuel part of the energy supply (“Add-Ons”) is electricity. In Figure 6, the only type of non-fossil energy shown that is not electricity is biofuels. These are mostly ethanol and biodiesel.
(c) Another detail that is easy to miss is the fact that the growth in the world’s electricity supply, as shown in Figure 7, has been almost exclusively outside the Advanced Economies–that is, members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The Advanced Economies group includes the US, most of Europe, Japan, Australia, and several other countries.
Figure 8 shows the growth in electricity generation separately for the Advanced Economies and the Other Economies. The chart shows that generation of electricity by the Advanced Economies grew until 2007 but flattened after that date. Electricity generation by the Other Economies has grown the entire time since 1985. The rate of electricity production growth of Other Economies became noticeably more rapid after China joined the WTO in 2001.
Also, population growth since 1985 has disproportionately taken place in Other Economies, as contrasted with Advanced Economies.
[7] In the Advanced Economies, electricity production has recently been falling on a per capita basis, making a shift to greater electrification seem difficult.
A major issue is that the Advanced Economies are already seeing their electricity supplies per capita declining as shown on Figure 10 below. This is true for all five of the selected economies. Some of the lower consumption is due to efficiency improvements, but some is the result of the offshoring of jobs and industries to low-wage countries.
In comparison, electricity production per capita of other economies, with typically lower wages than Advanced Economies and often accompanied by more rapid population growth, has tended to rise, as shown on Figure 11.
The four “Other Economies” are less similar to each other than the five Advanced Economies. But what is striking is that they all have shown growth in per-capita electricity production since 1999. In 2024, Saudi Arabia’s electricity production had risen to about the per-capita level of the US’s electricity production. By 2024, China’s per-capita electricity production had surpassed that of both the EU and the UK. Russia was part of the Soviet Union before the latter collapsed in 1991. Once Russia’s economy had started recovering from the collapse, about 1999, its per-capita electricity production also began to rise.
[8] Other issues are also making a continued shift to electrification appear difficult, particularly for the Advanced Economies.
Trying to work around using fossil fuels leads to the need for more specialized minerals to produce high tech electrical goods and electricity transmission. The problem faced by Advanced Economies is that they produce practically none of these minerals; they must import them. The US has a long list of minerals it considers critical.
Some of these minerals aren’t rare in the earth’s crust. Part of the problem is the lack of industrial capacity in Advanced Economies today, as industry has been moved overseas to reduce costs and local CO2 emissions. For example, the US used to be a major producer of aluminum, but this production has dwindled; other countries, including China, can produce aluminum at lower cost.
Another issue is that China produces the majority of quite a few of these minerals. The US, and probably the other Advanced Economies, had planned to buy what they needed on the world market. Now, production is not keeping up with the amount the world could easily use. In 2025, China announced export restrictions on some minerals, including gallium, germanium and antimony. It has become clear that if Advanced Economies want to have adequate supplies of high-demand minerals (including silver, copper, platinum, rare earth minerals, and uranium, among others), they need to start producing them themselves.
Diesel is used in extracting many of these minerals. If diesel is in short supply, that adds another layer of problems. All these issues may lie behind President Trump’s interest in Greenland.
[9] We don’t hear about these issues partly because academic researchers live in ivory towers, and partly because politicians don’t dare explain the issues to voters.
Part of the problem is that economists don’t understand how tightly the various parts of the world economy are interconnected through the laws of physics. Economists tend to believe that if there is a shortage, prices will rise, and these higher prices will solve nearly all problems. This is not necessarily the case. Buyers cannot purchase more than they can afford. Prices may spike temporarily and then fall back. Production of fossil fuels or minerals may end because prices do not rise high enough, for long enough, for producers to depend upon the higher prices for the long term.
In the case of a shortage, most people assume that the only change the economy will make is in prices. However, the economy is tightly interconnected. It can move production to a different part of the world, where wages and energy costs are lower. An indirect result, in the country losing jobs, may be more wage and wealth disparity. The US seems to be experiencing this issue now, with fewer young people being able to find a job that pays well.
Needless to say, politicians aren’t willing to admit, “We have difficulties for which we can see no solution.” Even leaders of universities are reluctant to suggest that there might be major problems ahead. They don’t want to frighten students or their parents. University officials want all problems to be ones their students can work on, with the hope of solving them in the next few years.
[10] What is happening now is similar to the outcome of a game of musical chairs, when there is one fewer chair than the number of players.
In the game of musical chairs, players walk around a group of chairs until the music stops. At the end of each round, one chair is removed, leaving one fewer chair than the number of players. In the next round, the remaining players all scramble for the chairs available, which often leads to small fights over who gets a chair. This not-enough-to-go-around problem explains the poor relations we see today among countries and political parties. It is also the underlying reason for the interest in imposing tariffs and in bombing other countries.
Financial markets tend to perform well during periods of economic growth. However, if certain kinds of essential resources are in short supply, this will tend to hold back growth. Debt defaults and falling stock markets could result. For these reasons, problems in financial markets may be ahead.
Major governmental changes may be ahead. Representative governments require more energy than simpler types of organizations, such as dictatorships. Furthermore, citizens do not like disorder; they may want to overthrow leaders who seem to allow too much disorder. They may vote them out of office or even try to assassinate them. The problem of resource inadequacy is structural, however. Getting rid of a particular leader doesn’t necessarily help the situation.
Everywhere in the world, at least part of today’s problem is that there are not enough jobs available that pay well. Economists have told us to expect high prices if there are shortages. In a way, not having enough jobs that pay well is the opposite problem. But from a physics standpoint, the result is the same. Only a few people can afford many of the goods that are available. The economists’ misinterpretation of what is going wrong further confuses people’s understanding of our current situation.
Mainstream media needs to cater to advertisers. Because of this issue, we cannot expect them to tell us what is happening. That task seems to fall to bloggers, like me. I try to write an article approximately every month. I hope that the graphs and other figures I have presented in this article will help readers understand why we are currently seeing more types of disruptions, such as tariffs and bombings.
It is starting to look more like they are going to send in ground troops….if that happens I think oil will shoot up to $140 but the stock market will no longer be jawboned by the president. There is so much FOMO in the market. I remember when Obama would do the same thing. But this time is different…the FED has so many problems on so many fronts. The U.S has so many enemies…basically the whole world!
Look out Europe the United States has destroyed your economy and now the fat rich baby boomers are coming over in droves to eat all your food and drink your wine!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUagLdYRT_0
Columbia University professor Sachs gives an excellent summary of where the world is at.
We Will see 2027? I think we all gone to die soon. I Hope arrive 2030 buy i think not
Where do you live?
Italia small Village 4000 abitanti. A lot garden here
Guys you will love this. Best it was made by a nerd sitting in his basement. Countdown meter for NZ .
https://www.fuelclock.nz/
https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/2037892554729894119/photo/1
A food crisis in the making
– Dutch gas reserves are at ~6%
– The Netherlands is the 2nd largest food exporter
– 80% of export vegetables come from greenhouses
– Those greenhouses depend on gas
This is how an energy crisis turns into a food crisis
The Hormuz crisis is cascading through the entire global economy .
“The Hormuz crisis is cascading through the entire global economy”
That’s how you defeat a superior foe via asymmetric warfare.
Lettuce and cucumber (and tulips) do not a food crisis make. Italians will switch to radicchio and artichokes for example. But I am holding on for confirmation that the Bahrain King has fled. That would be big.
This kind of goes back to what we were talking about. Iran will allow 20 shipments from Saudi to Pakistan. Cultivating friendships in the region.
https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/2038130725547872418?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2038130725547872418%7Ctwgr%5E413890ae4d40d59a36f23c11995ab52a8894f4e1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fpentagon-eyes-weeks-ground-operations-iran-irgc-threatens-tit-tat-strikes-universities
Bahrain used to belong to Iran until the shah gave it away.
According to former CIA analyst Larry Johnson, Pakistan is off the list. Trump bragged about eight beautiful gifts from Iran. It turns out those US tankers full of oil and other things were flying Pakistani flags. Once Iran found out, Pakistan was removed from the friendly vessel list.
you bet. awacs can be picked out of a fuzzy pic using AI due to their special shape. that damage looks like a missile but I wonder if a drone with limited AI can autonomously pick it out.
Global human population has surpassed Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity (Bradshaw, 2026)
“Global human population has surpassed Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity. The Earth cannot sustain the future human population, or even today’s, without a major overhaul of socio-cultural practices for using land, water, energy, biodiversity, and other resources.
pg8
” the global K = 3.3 billion previously estimated to allow all people to live in comfort economically [36]. From the perspective of a sustainable ecological footprint, we also calculated a K of 2.35 billion, assuming a consumption rate of 0.5 Earths to avoid over consumption (compared to the 1.7 Earths consumed today) and current human population of 8 billion. Taking 1.7 (currently used) Earths ÷ 0.5 (target Earths) estimates that the global human population is 3.4 times too large, and that K = 8 billion ÷ 3.4 = 2.35 billion would be ‘sustainable’ at today’s average material standard of living and current consumption distribution [29].
pg13
Regardless, it is clear that Earth cannot sustain the future human population, or even today’s, without a major overhaul of socio-cultural practices for using land, water, energy, biodiversity, and other resources [22]. As such, some form of societal downscaling appears inevitable, whether achieved actively or in response to continued declines in population growth
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae51aa
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae51aa/pdf
It looks too optimistic. People are blind to many negative things.
“The Slovak market is undergoing a quiet but fundamental transformation that demographers refer to as the “atomization of society.” According to data from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, the number of single-person households is growing at a rate that is changing the structure of GDP faster than digitalization.”
https://www.trend.sk/spolocnost/ekonomika-izolacie-osamely-slovak-je-zlatou-banou-pre-biznis?itm_modul=react_trend_topbox&itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_position=1&itm_cb_position=top_main_1
“..soc. atomization phenomenon..”
Truth all over the world to some extent.
Broader families no longer ( or as freq. ) visiting each other like say ~40-60yrs ago ( when cheap mobility spiked ), .. , but mostly caused rather by some sort of induced malaise – reclusive posture of people chiefly under some kind of ( pre-collapse ) stress forcing etc.
For a Nation that is supposedly running out of weapons, these lads, sure are doing a lot of high priced damage!
“‘Incredibly Problematic’ – Iran Destroys US AWACS Jet At Saudi Airbase”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/incredibly-problematic-iran-destroys-us-awacs-jet-saudi-airbase
https://x.com/cirnosad/status/2038182193173078074
Excerpt: “I want to correct my report about 2 AWACS planes being destroyed. It was actually 1 AWACS E-3, but the picture actually gets worse for the US. In addition to the E-3, two EC-130Hs were damaged beyond repair.
These jets are top tier SEAD assets, vital to suppressing air defenses through jamming and monitoring. They were going to be used in the invasion of an Iranian island. The idea was these planes in addition to Growlers would target and suppress AD while the 82nd flew in with helicopters.
Iran preempted this move and destroyed the asset.
Ok. I like to understand. Perhaps there will never be an answer. Are there any resistance? Any counter measures? Any anti drones or missiles?
So those on the tarmac are sitting ducks ripe for plucking?
I am getting giddy
Pretty much! USrael are basically out of AD missiles. If you watch a rare leaked video showing an incoming Iranian missile landing either in the GCC or Israel, you no longer see any AD missiles trying to shoot the Iranian missile out of the sky.
Most of the AD missiles went to Ukraine to shoot down what Russia was firing their way. It’s the US and Israel who are running low on weapons, not Iran.
It would be ironic/payback if it was the Russians and or Chinese who had a helping hand in this.
How many of us on here said the the Russia and Ukraine war would not last very long because of the same….We were all wrong…
I found a place for Fast Eddy to move to live for the rest of his remaining days, you are welcomed, Bruh
A family has been living in isolation on the summit of a mountain for half a century
Without running water or basic infrastructure, they maintain a self-sufficient lifestyle built around livestock, farming, and a steady daily routine.
https://en.as.com/latest_news/a-family-has-been-living-in-isolation-on-the-summit-of-a-mountain-for-half-a-century-f202603-n/?outputType=amp
Pedro lives with his wife and two daughters, who actively help with household and farm responsibilities. One of his daughters is especially involved in hauling water, since Pedro suffers from back problems. They also care for small vegetable gardens, fruit trees, and the plants surrounding the home.
Their agricultural production follows an annual cycle. Each season, they plant corn and beans, with harvests that can reach up to 40 sacks of corn and nine sacks of beans, depending on the year’s conditions. Cassava is used both for the family’s consumption and as feed for the livestock.
Using simple tools and old machinery, the family maintains a steady system that allows them to sustain this way of life. Their story reflects the reality of many isolated rural communities, where constant work and adaptation to the environment remain essential to survival.
Hm, evidently not slacking there up the mountain patch, as they are able to produce lot of food for such as small team of people, because one sack could be ~43-109kgs, in this case it’s most probably meant as that ~53kgs weight category.
But other sources say specifically for beans it’s the “large” sack sizing instead, i.e. indeed ~90-105kgs.. Also the respective beans themselves do vary a lot in size..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sack_(unit)
https://earthtoveg.com/calc/beans/
Great pic gallery (processing stages) and over-all description:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassava#
Especially that diy open air drying method for cassava bread, hah.
Don’t try at home kids, the ~cyanide removal is not always straightforward process, also depends on the variety of the (diverse/sized)root crop cultivating..
But as combo ( feeding roots to meat-animals ) and with its hay-fodder then to ruminants great ( for certain over-all conditions )!
A needless war based on lies that will destroy whatever is left of the economy and create famine.
yup
wars destroy what they are fought over
Something out of the box. Does Israel really have nuclear weapons or is it all talk, talk and talk? India, Pakistan and North Korea built their weapons in secrecy and then tested them in the open to prove they have the ability and the weapons. Israel has never detonated a real nuclear test explosion. So how do we know the threat is real? The propaganda machine of the West is very strong.
According to former CIA analysts and military commanders, they have between 200-300 nuclear bombs but since Satan’s chosen people own the US media and bought off 95% of US politicians, everyone will tell you, they have NO nukes.
Last week the Undersecretary of State was grilled by a US Senator and was asked point blank if Israel had nuclear weapons. He squirmed and refused to answer repeated questions by that Senator.
There’s your answer. So expect those Israeli nukes to appear when they get pummeled by the Iranian’s and they have no choice but to let them fly.
There must have been ~neighbor corroboration-confirm status for their past underground blast tests.. Basically, getting out of the the blue [ earth quake ] right there, which is noticed-measured down if you will.. They ~surely have them ( some unknown sort and numbers , tech delivery and policy then another matter )..
Most people in English speaking countries think a victory is entering the enemy’s capital and burning the hell out of it, and killing all the enemy leaders.
Which is why there are remarks from those who are still re-fighting world war 2.
In many cultures around the world, like Taliban, ‘winning’ is not losing, and keeping whatever political structure they have. Sure, it might be crappy and poor , but they kept what they had, so it is a ‘winning’ for them, something the English speaking world will never understand.
In the mind of the Iranian leadership, as long as they are around they are winning. They do not give a crap that some people in the English speaking world do not think that is a victory.
Respected and credible economists — Micheal Hudson and Steve Keen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIypIDWQAQw
I had earlier posted about the Pharma clock in India . Quark has done a very good job of taking the analysis further . Spanish use translator .
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/escenario-3-el-colapso-de-los-sistemas
now, to take a more realistic approach. a lot of oil is flowing out of the Middle East already, and yes, it could be stopped by a combination of the houthis and bombing the two terminals on the other side of the strait, but it has not happened yet and the marines might well go to yemen. i think this is just going to be a population haircut for the enemies of israel plus some massive stagflation. no collapse anywhere yet.
There is a reason that the oil is still flowing through Yanbu. Iran can pinpoint targets around Riyadh. They could take out that pipeline in an instant. After all the misery the Saudis have caused Yemen, they should take out that pipeline, but they don’t. There is also a reason that attacks to and from Qatar have stopped, at least I think they have. Iran took out 2 gas trains and then stopped. Thoughts??
interesting. there has to be some interlocutor. it is possible they did it on advice from ru/chn. managed escalation – time is on our side etc? though that creed has eventually landed putin onto thin ice in russia.
As former CIA analysts and former US military commanders have repeatedly said that it’s the US who is running low on armaments.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-signals-move-take-us-arms-ukraine-divert-them-middle-east
I agree that Usrael is running low.
but it is not the whole story.
it’s no surprise that so many of the talking heads out there are antiTrump and antiIsrael.
their main talking points have been and will continue to be all the issues that Usrael is having in this war.
but really, answer me this:
after 4 weeks, if there remained lots more millitary targets in Iran, and Iran still had a capable defense, why did Usrael just successfully tarrget and dessstroy 70% of Iran’s steel industry?
is that Iran winning? really?
It is sometimes fun to play a devil’s advocate
The bombs landing in Tel Aviv and the closure to the Strait of Hormuz says as the global economy collapses and the GCC States also get pummeled….Yes!
Back in June the claim was 100% destroyed, as was again claimed a few weeks ago, but now it’s only 30%. This smells like the covid poison all over again and when they got to 30% with that fraud, they pulled it from the market, because by then everyone understood it upheld none of its claims and in fact the opposite was true.
If you believe the unsubstantiated claim that Iran is running out, I think you will be disappointed. The true figure(including destroyed tarmac paintings and inflatables) I would say is <5%, although I accept that is hard to believe and there no way for me to prove it..
Don't be fooled by the claim of slowing down, but do remember, there's not a lot of point striking something you've already destroyed and never forget the decades of lies from our leaders/media.
"The Aerospace Force and Navy of the IRGC carried out coordinated missile and drone strikes on two industrial complexes tied to the American military and aerospace sectors: the EMAL aluminum plant in the UAE and the ALBA aluminum plant in Bahrain.
The EMAL facility houses the world’s longest aluminum production line, with an annual capacity of up to 1.3 million tons. The ALBA plant plays a key role in producing materials used in US military industries, including through investments and partnerships with American companies."
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/irgc-strikes-us-linked-industrial-targets-in-gulf
You'll notice multiple countries still getting hit in wave 86 and little to no attempted intercepts, but we are bombing hospitals, schools, universities and 115 heritage sites(the corporation hate collective history), so we must be back to 100% destroyed.
https://english.almanar.com.lb/article/47022/
Anyone would think that western medias whole job is too confuse people so much, that they have no idea and give up.
Oh, the German bloke. He loves Corporate America and gets all angsty when it's getting bad press. He just wants better pr, not change.
for anyone interested in more milllitary analysis of the MEwar, there is the Moon of Alabama site.
fyi, the guy who runs it Bernhard is most likely a European writing from Germany, based on internet sources, so don’t be foooled into thinking he is in Alabama, USA.
he seems clearly antiUSA and proIran in his writings.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/
Today attended a No Kings Rally here in my small Florida city and well represented by many patriot citizens exercising their constitutional rights of democratic process.
Hope many others here did the same. Unlawful government must be held accountable and brought to court of law or vote in Congress
I was planning to attend but too cold here in the northeast.
the No Kings rallies so far have been a great success!
the USA remains with a POTUS not a king!
also the “king” of VZ was taken out recently, but otherwise…
these rallies will accomplish nothing, too bad.
I’m not a fan of Trump But I am not a fan of the no kings party. It reminds me a lot of Biden and Harris
Changes nothing, our government no longer responds to protest.
Afraid the damage has been done in regard to what is coming down to all of us in the weeks/months ahead. Many will suffer or be injured or die because of a short sighted, self centered, ego maniac that desires to be “great”.
Remember, no whining..we deserve the government or lack of even especially if we didn’t even vote
lots of irony that the ever more ssenile Trump who barely can think one step ahead on his actions, has probably caused some very severe consequences for Asia and Europe mostly.
if the USA is relatively unharmed from this MEwar, it won’t have anything to do with any preplanning by the POTUS.
Maybe… but this could be a brilliant plan to make America the top country and the rest of the world subservient . You are right Europe is in trouble.
the usa became the top economic force bt not only having fuel resources…..but by selling those resources to the rest of the world….
it isnt possible to get rich by selling to yourself—only to others
The corruption is so embedded, it will be impossible to remove.
https://thedemocracydefender.substack.com/cp/192455093
Iran War: We Follow The Money (To Mar-A-Lago)
How the Mar-A-Lago Gang is Cashing In On The Iran War
Comment:
“OMG, this article reveals how Sec. Bessent, Sec. Wright, Sec. Lutnick, DepSec. Feinberg (Dept of War) and the Trump family are all making big money from their bets on the Iran War and other policies they determine and implement. The grift is astonishing and larger in scale than anything that came before. “
The article starts:
Here is a number to sit with: $2,000 per truckload.
That’s the fee a little-known Florida company called Gothams LLC — the same firm that ran the “Alligator Alcatraz” immigrant detention center — wants to charge for every single humanitarian aid truck entering a conflict zone under American control. Commercial trucks? $12,000 each. The contract they pitched to the White House demands a seven-year monopoly on all trucking and logistics, with a guaranteed 300% return on capital expenditure. Federal contracting experts called it “highway robbery.” The White House claimed the proposal was shelved. Records show Gothams partners were still coordinating with administration officials as recently as early 2026.
This is the Iran war.
Not the one you’re being told about — the one wrapped in flags and “national security” and solemn talk of nuclear threats. That war exists too, of course. But beneath it runs a parallel architecture, a financial machinery so brazen in its design that it makes the Iraq-era Halliburton contracts look quaint by comparison. In this war, every cabinet member has a financial stake.
Supposedly, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have made billions from the Saudi’s as a payoff. The rumors are that the Saudi’s wanted the US to go to war with Iran.
Trump’s corruption is just as bad if not worse than Nancy Pelosi’s insider trading for her husband and Joe Biden hooking up Hunter with sweetheart deals in Ukraine.
Trump will be gone within less than 3 swift years.
Possibly as soon as next year when the Democrats control both sides of the House and impeach him. That’s if the 25th amendment isn’t invoked first.
It’s not a good look when a Trump said he recently spoke to Mr. Toyota about a deal.
Mr. Toyota died in 2023.
Iran might be almost out of missilesweapons.
all sides are clearly using missilesweapons at an unsustainable rate, but that doesn’t mean “fold their tents” when this could continue many many more months just with a much lower rate of missilesweapons usage.
War On Iran: Exorbitant Munition Spending + Lack Of Success = Iran Is Winning – Moon of Alabama
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/03/war-on-iran-exorbitant-munition-spending-lack-of-success-iran-is-winning.html
I don’t blame these sites for being antiUSevilEmpire, but there are telltale signs that Irran is taking it:
“The United States can only determine with certainty that it has desstroyed about a third of Irran’s vast missssile arssenal as the U.S. and Israeli warr on the country nears its one-month mark, according to five people familiar with the U.S. intelligence.
The status of around another third is less clear but bombings likely damaged, destrroyed or buried those missssiles in underground tunnels and bunkers, four of the sources said.”
so 2/3 of their stuff may have been taken out, and they may have used much of the other 1/3.
and that would explain atttacks on Iran moving on to nonmillllitary sites:
“Today the USraeli strikes hit Iranian steel plants in Khuzestan and Mobarakeh near Isfahan.”
if Iran’s level of retalliation goes way down, that would be a sure sign that they are depleted militttarily.
time will tell.
Few weeks ago they received some token number of RU’s ~modern mobile AA systems, obviously that’s like drop in a bucket for such large country, and likely deployed by them only for the most fancy (deemed) defense and gov complexes. Hence now such a selection of seemingly ~#2-3rate targets by their adversaries ( for the win / most damage ) ..
Enough damage has been done that it doesn’t really matter at this point. So long as Iran AND Israel exists…. nothing will be rebuilt.
the duration of the war matters greatly for the economics of IC.
They also said the Russians were running out of missiles…..oops! The department of war, also mentioned they are winning while Iran has taken out 6 out of 7 THAAD radar systems, down aircraft, damaged an aircraft carrier (massive damaged from a laundry fire….sure) and damaged if not destroyed US bases in the GCC.
According to several former CIA analysts and former military commanders, they all say that Iran has been preparing for this war for about 25 years and have enough missiles to keep pounding USrael and the GCC for 18-24 months.
And keep in mind that cheap drones can do serious damage as well. USrael has found that out.
sure Iran has some dronesandmissiles left.
and though the numbers could be way off, it’s possible that oh by the way proIran site could be correct.
2/3 of their stuff might be desttroyed or burried.
so let’s see “tonight” if Iran has much of a rettalliation for those blastted steel plants.
they might or might not.
However, I will go with former CIA analysts and former military commanders versus the US propaganda that Iran is running low. Iran has more than enough to stay the course.
What we do know that is a fact is that the USrael are both running low on ammunition’s and anti defense missiles.
Israel isn’t even launching anti defense missiles as they used to as Iran keeps hitting targets in Israel.
For every incoming missile you need to fire 2-3 patriot missiles and less than 1000 are produced each year at a costs of $2-3 million each. Guess who got most of those missiles? Yup, Ukraine and they are no longer firing back at incoming Russian missiles. They used them up
The US is so low on ammo they had to ask Ukraine and South Korea for some of their stuff.
as I stated, all sides have used unsustainable amounts in these first 4 weeks.
also I repeated that the source above is clearly a proIran site.
all we can do is watch for actual news of Iran’s promised retallliation tonight and then in the future.
I think the data shows that Iran atttacks have slowed their pace.
in time we will see if the pace gets ever slower.
It’s gotten slower for Iran because they only hit what they precieve high value targets instead of the tactic that USrael employs which is to carpet bomb.
According to leaked reports from Israel, which the government has created a total blackout, Israeli’s are in bunkers and afraid to come out because of incoming Iranian drones and missiles.
Presumably what is needed for the war is all stockpiled. Iran has been producing more steel than the US for a while now. But it is possible that bombing steel plants will long term increase Iran’s dependency on China. so good for Israel not so good for the USA. (not a new thing)
Trump admits that the Ford was attacked and they fled.
“We knew we were in trouble,”
“They were here, they were there. We ran for our lives, it was over,”
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/trump-admits-iran-hit-uss-ford-carrier—we-ran-for-our-live
Bhadrakumar makes some interesting comments, especially given the sources are all nato/Atlantic Council types.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/iran-has-the-last-laugh/
The IRGC have claimed that they have hit 2 of the troop build up areas, so expect the US military suicide rate to go up soon and the Ukrainian drones plus trainers/operators(21) sent to UAE are no more. Poor Ukrainians, death seems to follow them around.
Time to deal donny
https://x.com/Somali_ICS/status/2037608462784360749
As I mentioned few dayz/week ago – there was notable spike in heli medical transports across the old continent without any adequate explanations, no giant highway chain-crash situation, jet or train set carnage to attend etc.
Could be even reshuffling ordinary Euros between hospitals as that injured US mil cadre had to stay nearer ClubMed specific sites with limited capacity etc.
I did read something about a hospital in one of the “kingdoms” refusing to let anyone in or out.
The attack on troops was only reported this morning, so keep a look out, as a pattern might become visible.
“In recent hours, two of their hideouts were identified, with more than 400 individuals in the first hideout and more than 100 individuals in the second hideout in Dubai, both of which were targeted by precision missiles and drones of the valiant Aerospace Force and Navy of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, resulting in very heavy casualties for them,”
My favourite of the day comes from Qalibaf’s reply to the Pakistani Defence Minister
https://t.me/sepahcybery/137084
They both seem to be enjoying the direction events are taking and Trump is now threatening BIG BOOM BOOM(but I’m not sure anyone is listening anymore).
Rumours are swirling around that if Trump doesn’t fold before midnight, Iran will up it’s demands to include CAPS LOCK being removed from ALL Trump’s devices(there really would be no one listening then).
On the plus side 865% of all Iranian missiles have been confirmed as destroyed(for the third time), they’ll be marching on Tehran before springs mid point and a pilot died, but he was on the ground so it doesn’t count. Fortuitously, he just happened to be the one that bombed the girls school and so Iran can stop demanding the handover of the war criminal.
This Is collapse MOST faster you can immagine. Wrost case scenario
Just wait till the nukes start firing!
The vibes and %probabilities for ~regional -> one way n. exchange ( albeit limited in scale ) are growing for sure !
For now perhaps, we (out of the region) can find solace in the fact [CHN] although heavily at disadvantage from this crisis won’t participate in such n. exchange, and also as Persia denied (earlier) closer mil. defense alliance with [RU].. Hence the chances it will remain somewhat contained in ME are not bad.
But the mid-long term effect “on the West” will be surely crippling econ-politically. Chances are the US mil. ( some insider faction ) could even set a mutiny, not following orders to eventually n. Iran even symbolically ( say into empty mountain-desert or high alt atmospheric demo first there ) etc.
Perhaps some OFF-RAMP will be eventually presented-provided to Don at a bit [ less humiliating conditions ], but again we are then back to the beginning as for certain tribe it will be deemed as the VERY LAST favorable opportunity to smack down Iran, so they could go solo n. and drag the world down with them so to speak.. which they sort of admitted all these yrs along as their ~top crisis mode policy anyway..
i dont want to agree with you but i do
With each passing day, we are closer to nuclear war and that is not hyperbole. Israel continues to get pounded by Iran. IDF commanders are warning that the Israeli army is in crisis mode because they are fighting too many wars at the same time. Netanyahu wants to call up 400K more soldiers.
If Israel thinks it’s over for them, don’t rule out they launch several nukes at Iran. That could trigger multiple responses from several nuclear powers, including North Korea who are allies with Iran.
In this clip at the 17 minute mark the undersecretary of state refused to answer if Israel has nuclear bombs. That is HIS job to know and he refused to admit Israel has nukes. The speculation is that Israel has between 200-300 nukes. The fact the undersecretary refused to answer the question says that Israel will probably go that route.
well—-i’m non-religious, but i can only admit that armageddon (Megiddo) is in Israel.
makes ya think—doesn’t it?
maybe.
if you are in Italy or anywhere else in Europe.
for sure the UK looks like it will be hit soon and hard.
Asia too.
Italia in small Village rurale 4 k abitant
BREAKING: Thousands gather in London in support of the American “No Kings” protests.
https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2037950209100067022
leave so little oil for the rest of us.
From the US..thank you for all coming out in the streets of your homes across the world to all nations for coming out to protest this senseless, illegal criminal aggression and dictatorship rule from this present corrupt administration…
Profs. Mearsheimer and Diesen give an up-to-date overview of the complete fiasco of the Trump administration in Iran.
The plan of quick regime change has already failed, Iran has most of the cards on the escalation ladder, and Trump has no off-ramp.
The world faces a catastrophic energy crisis.
The strategy of boots-on-the-ground is liable to be a disaster, and Saudi and UAE are liable to get completely wrecked.
The Profs. explain the deepening debacle in more detail.
> John Mearsheimer: “Iran Holds All the Cards” – The Strategic Defeat of the U.S.
Trump has entered a war he can’t win. He campaigned as if he would get out of wars. In his first term, he stayed out of wars. We are in profound trouble. Iranians hold almost all of the cards, if the war continues. Iran can wreck the international economy.
Yes……but how does the U.S get out of the war? Opps! Sorry about blowing up your country….we will go home now?
No Iran is going to insist that they pay for everything..and Trump and his Boss will never agree to that…they will increase bombing in the next few weeks…
Unfortunately!
“Yes……but how does the U.S get out of the war? Opps! Sorry about blowing up your country….we will go home now?”
if 2/3 of Iran’s milllitary stuff has been desstroyed and they have used most of the other 1/3…
what “cards” does Iran have?
most of their steel industry has just been desstroyed, does that sound like they are winning?
let’s see what “cards” they play next, they might have a lot left, or not.
Keeping the Straits of Trump closed is the Trump card David and selective bomb attacks on American allies and Israel
in his first term, he had no concept of the power of the presidency…
before his second term he took the trouble to find out just what his power would be,…
after he bought the supreme court, there was nothing to stop his profiteering wrecking spree on the nation itself….
which is where we are right now.
BREAKING: Thousands gather in London in support of the American “No Kings” protests.
https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2037950209100067022
leave so lil oil
A good excuse for all the financial institutions to collapse .
Yes indeedy.
This is a perfect illustration of how we perceive the Hormuz risk.
Everyone is seeing the avalanche coming, yet everyone thinks that somehow it is under control… it isn’t.
There is no plan. No alternative routes that can scale fast enough… Hormuz opened or closed is all that matters.
The current avalanche is so big and dangerous that markets think this will resolve quickly due to the heavy economic costs… it won’t.
One month in, we hear reports that this operation might take from a few weeks to six months, to years… the avalanche will hit much earlier
Within a few weeks:
– Taiwan runs out of LNG -> no AI
– Fertilizer supplies are getting decimated -> no food
– Japan, Europe, Australia run out of diesel
The only thing keeping markets afloat is an unreasonably high amount of hopium… once it’s gone, expect a violent rerating .
As per a comment on Quarks blog the MSM is only about Easter holidays , traffic jams , flight delays and angry holiday makers .
https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/2037923756056674805
Fortunately, it is not quite as bad as “no food.” Even with significantly reduced fertilizer, some food can be grown. It will be hard to grow as much corn for ethanol, without fertilizer, I expect. It may also be hard to grow as much grain for animal feed. The world may need to focus more on people-food in the future, and less on all of the “nice to haves.” Also, fuel for cooking the food; it is also essential.
Gail , you are missing the woods for the trees . Some food is not enough for 8 billion people . When the 7.99 billion have an empty stomach you think those with ” some food ” will survive ? Hunger makes the brain go wild . I participated in the relief effort in the Great Tsunami in Odisha also called Orissa ( India ) . I have seen the children and women trampled on by men for a packet of 100 gms of biscuits . Been there done that .
By the way what about those billionares like Peter Theil who purchased bug out sites in NZ . All are not so intelligent as , NZ goes down the drain . I leave you with Walt Whitman ‘s poem;
Oh me! Oh life! of the questions of these recurring,
Of the endless trains of the faithless, of cities fill’d with the foolish,
Of myself forever reproaching myself, (for who more foolish than I, and who more faithless?)
Of eyes that vainly crave the light, of the objects mean, of the struggle ever renew’d,
Of the poor results of all, of the plodding and sordid crowds I see around me,
Of the empty and useless years of the rest, with the rest me intertwined,
The question, O me! so sad, recurring—What good amid these, O me, O life?
Answer.
That you are here—that life exists and identity,
That the powerful play goes on, and you may contribute a verse.
Basically what I am saying is that you are missing out on the violence except for the total issue . It can be violence for any reason , religion , caste , race etc . However we all will be affected . Did we vote for the RU- Ukr war or the ME war ?
No there’s definitely no plan to stop the Big Nuclear Scare. 😁 Bushehr be on mission creep for shutting the Strait down all by itself, judging by the article on ZH this morning. No mines needed. No drones. No US Navy. No ground troops. TACO or no TACO. Bushehr finna keep it simple til the nuclear dust settles. Then they’ll let the Bangladeshi back in to do all the dirty work.
Chinese AGI, ASI will carry on
Starvation in India and Africa, so what is new
Japan well beyond over shoot good to get some reset
Europe will farm I will enjoy watching the Muslim farmers
Australia fishing, farming — but what about Perth and FE, the missus, and julio
Interesting, because in a podcast I was listening today between Larry Wilkerson and Prof Glenn Diesen. Ret Col. Larry Wilkerson mentioned that some might want a global nuclear exchange.
And it has nothing to do with the 2nd coming of Jesus or Armageddon. Rather he believes the banks such as JP Morgan Chase and others would look forward to it as it would be good for the banks. That’s if anything would be left to take advantage of it.
Strange! Rebuilding would be good for banks. Except, as resources are in shorter and shorter supply, rebuilding will be harder. There will be more chance of bombs taking the new buildings down. Many debts won’t be repaid with interest.
This sounds very much like, “War is good for GDP.” We don’t count destruction as a negative. We only count reconstruction as a positive.
the ‘American Dream’ kicked in only after ww2—why?
because american fossil fuel producers sold their (effectively free) product to rebuild Europe…
and because energy was virtually free, people could buy almost anything they wanted—so american factories produced colossal amounts of ”stuff” that people didnt know they needed.
(cheap) oil-based infrastructure boomed, as did the delusion of ”infinite capital” which in turn fueled the secondary delusion, that capitalism itself was instrunental in the creation of itself.—-a concept that makes my head hurt..
yet this is what the maganuts actually believe….
which is the same as believing in perpetual motion machines….and that prosperity is something you vote for…..
Yes good point so many people believe that war is stimulative! It is not! It worked in the past because we had lots of easily energy. That ship has left the station. Iran will need to rebuild after this; I think that oil will stay high for a long time to come.
5 Km line in Kolkatta for CNG auto rickshaws . I have set the language and subtitles to English .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1RaP_GAepQ
Without much LNG being delivered to India, I am afraid the issue will continue for a long time.
Trump and BeeBee both say….deal, we don’t care.
They need to look into this, interesting, technology:
https://www.macfilos.com/2023/08/28/sentinel-steam-waggon-nothing-quite-like-it-for-warming-the-blood/
(with so much of various diversity to affordably burn down there…)
Few people here seem to realize that this is a fight to death.
No quarters, no mercy can be expected.
Unless the people of New York, San Francisco and Tel Aviv want to live like Gazans.
Thy will live like Gazans eventually, no exceptions. But I think the street poop situation is already better in Gaza than SF.
The shit ain’t the problem, farmer. The asphalt is the problem.
Song by the band Suede:
https://youtu.be/gLnc4RZLDDU
Sorry, did not get your reference.
Never been to Gaza but would assume the standards were relatively high ( pre/during conflict ), i.e. everything either properly paved or asphalt ala key cities in Syria, Turkey is obviously even dev1-2levels higher up..
I do recall from Cairo’s off the beaten paths though ( perhaps similar to Norm’s experience ) there were not paved, nor asphalt layered, .. more like compressed dirt even occasionally around say newish 20-40yrs old apartment bldgs., a proper city block.
My main point was to push back on drb’s chronic yet bourgeois anti-American bias. Secondary motivation was to remind him that shit ain’t the problem. The asphalt is the problem, but drb’s $4 espresso shots and American lifestyle don’t exist without the asphalt existing regardless of the fact that shot smells don’t pair well with shit smells. In other words you can’t have your cake and eat it, too.
The Iranian’s are definitely looking at this war as a threat to their existence. It is why they have targeted the GCC. They too are aligned with USrael and want to eliminate Iran.
The USrael and the GCC have one thing in common. They rely on the US economy for its support and backing. That is why the Iranian’s decided an asymmetric war was key to defeating USrael and its GCC proxies.
Collapse the global economy and bring the misery to those that support USrael. Truckers are now stranded in Australia due to the deepening energy crisis created by Trumpenyahu.
It reminds me of the book: “When Trucks Stop Running” by A.J. Friedemann
Prof. R. Wolff ( ~marxist ) on Al Jazeera Eng, YTch
noted something to the effect about the novelty that US is now no longer able to keep its side of the deal in terms of the petrodollar-recycling arrangement, i.e. providing these Gulfies with security.. lolz..
Yes , correct Kulm . There are more than one way to skin a cat .
“JUST IN: Iran just threatened to cut the undersea internet cables running through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
Ninety-five to ninety-seven percent of global internet traffic does not travel by satellite. It travels through physical glass fibres buried one to two metres beneath the seabed. Your bank transfers. Your stock trades. Your cloud computing. The data flows connecting every financial market on earth to every other financial market. All of it runs through cables laid across the same shallow waters where the IRGC is currently operating a selective toll regime and collecting yuan for passage.
The cables at risk per TeleGeography: FALCON, Gulf Bridge International, Europe India Gateway, SEA-ME-WE 6, AAE-1, and FLAG in the Hormuz corridor. EIG, AAE-1, Seacom, SMW-4, SMW-5, SMW-6, IMEWE, and 2Africa Pearls in the Red Sea. These are not obscure regional links. They are the backbone of global digital commerce connecting Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
The IRGC stated on March 28: “Critical infrastructure in Hormuz and Red Sea will not be spared if aggression continues.”
https://substack.com/@shanakaanslemperera/note/c-234465886
[ Iran’s asymmetric escalation ladder ] notch up – here we come, as just yesterday predicted by J. Mearsheimer at Diesen’s YTch ..
Please remember there are no historical precedents. No energy infrastructures were destroyed previously. Taps can be turned on at will nut not now.
Good point! Rebuilding will be difficult.
So long as Iran AND Israel both exist, who would fund any rebuilding of anything when a single missile could destroy it?
There is a very small list of names who will be remembered indefinitely in infamy for what has just been started.
So long as Zionism exists. FTFY.
Hence the long term prospects of China using this energy (this diesel really) are tied to it entering the conflict in force. Short term there are a lot of goodies coming their way but long term they should solve the Middle East.
Russian oil is not forever. If a coalition of euro states forms (I call them the Mitropa Cup countries, plus Spain), which wants to coexist with Russia, Russia will have to give them something.
Mitropa (should-it-be) emerging as per systems theory great – but in practice the choke points ” on the border / access ” there are still many. Poles were not able to make the same turn-around as Hungary (at least the end of mandate ruling faction upto now) – also less blood hist. between them.. Then you have Scandinavia, and Baltics .. And perhaps ” shockingly ” they could theoretically engage the Sultan of Turkey into such block or lukewarm ally (given some conditions) as well.
On the other hand the traditional naval and shore blockading hyper power of many past centuries is now [ pleite ] (UK), also US is dis-engaging.. , so truly perhaps the best opportunity in a long time for it.. But I doubt it, seemingly too good outcome for Europe.
Mitropa is really the Austro-Hungarian empire plus Italy, itself the terminal of the silk road. Greece and Bulgaria will also naturally lean that way. Not clear why they should have any loyalty to western europe since they destroyed them once, and they are just a bunch of perverts these days.
MI6 is working hard to start a war in the Balkans (I know some interesting details from personal contacts) but I doubt that they can drive the ramifications of a global energy collapse.
drb753> thanks for updating the details.
Yes I know, I meant in the more or less former Austro-empire boundaries as well. But for the next turn aka revision project, they would likely need not only incorporate parts of Balkans again, but also say Bavaria or Saxony if these are still viable..
Despite the recent decades of forced globalization-EUropeanization lots of cultural, procedural differences even antagonism prevailing inside that realm (for proper quasi-union to form up again).
Russian oil (to China) isn’t ‘forever’ but ME oil IS ‘forever’… make it make sense drb.
The Horsetrading Theory of Everything (HTOE), which is the nuts and bolts of the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda’s (DA) energy reallocation, summarily thought all of this through six years ago, resulting in the the thetic judgement that oil during Phase 2 will be allocated according to absolute civilizational need, with the nuclear powered (foremostly) and nuclear armed countries naturally being prioritized. Within that thesis we can go on to categorize the specific relative needs of the various national allocations, and I’ve done some of that work, too, and I can also tell you that the collapse of civilization doesn’t revolve around China or anybody else. The future is distributist.
forever was not meant as due to depletion but as due to reinforcing geopolitical alliances. I think Russia has been adamant about securing the western front. The southern front seems orders of magnitude better and there is salt water in the other directions. how do you think they will do it (or try to do it)? it’s not like the hand is the only actor in the world.
Seemingly mere sidenotes:
The issue with [ distributist future ] is that ~40-50yrs several as in many European countries were able on their OWN to precision manuf. say components for NPPs, now it’s like [1-2]-3x EUcountries at best..
That’s just an illustrative example how the [CHN] econ-transfer gutted all the previous industrial strength.
PS in fact it’s even worse – not only unable to produce such hitech ( aggregate / sub-assembly ) components anymore – they often times can’t even produce the higrade steel for it etc.. ~all must be imported now..
Thanks drb. The Hand is not the only actor but it’s the head actor no different from the Board of a corporation making all of the fundamental decisions for a corporation. Industrial civilization is Global Fascism Incorporated. Until it’s not. Then it’s Inverted Perestroika Incorporated. Until it’s not.
Does the Hand die a functional death due to lost civilizational complexity before industrial civilization dies altogether? Of course. But at that point nation states will already be dead or will die alongside the Hand because no nation with its current boundaries has a realistic shot at industrial autarky.
We’re talking past each other because you clearly aren’t talking in this conversation within the context of a Senecan Cliff nor within the context of (covert) global cooperation on Collapse.
Since you see no global lockstep cooperation, I would say that from your world view the China-Russia energy relationship is a match made in heaven because they are political allies and they share a border across which hyper efficient pipelines run. ME oil requires shipping and political conflict. You would appear to counter that Russian oil won’t last as long as ME oil. I would counter that by the time Russian oil ceases to exist ME oil will also cease to exist because of complexity theory.
“If a coalition of euro states forms (I call them the Mitropa Cup countries, plus Spain)”
Spain might just end up leading that coalition, as they, because of their stance, were offered an extra 12.5% gas from Algeria I heard(didn’t verify), but I do know that the Iranians have also noticed Spain’s stance
https://www.telesurenglish.net/iranians-rally-outside-spain-embassy-in-tehran-thanking-their-war-rejection/
This appreciation goes all the way up
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/iran-singles-out-spain-as-first-european-country-cleared-for-strait-of-hormuz-transits/2-1-1966831
Italy needs to get with the times, as it’s turning down the the offer that geography naturally gives it(and China wanted). Even Qatar is trying to back out, as the obvious becomes clear.
European nuclear countries are an extremely important power bloc during Phase 2. That bloc’s bare essential energy needs need to be met for awhile. For one, I assume that the remaining intact nordstream pipeline will flow again to Germany pretty quickly once the BNS is over.
Some fuel for your BNS fire?
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/03/26/3549797/iran-must-withdraw-from-npt
Vance will be president before the weekends out at this rate(tell investor guy to go big on eyeliner).
Thanks, interesting development there with Spain. Btw. that Algerian offer if legit is likely NOT out of their head only, hah.
Spain is evidently phasing out their npp fleet ( in steps ) :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Spain
I will guess that lack of uranium was indirectly an issue in this phase out.
Well, in fact more of a massive PV roll out ( helped via large subsidies at that) is for blame here.
Also there was large anti npp media campaign going on for decades in W. Europe..
Plus perhaps the factor of ~cheap natgas imports from N. Africa..
Spain has quite a few solar power stations and summer is coming, so as long as it’s not cloudy*, Spain will have abundant energy, given the offers from those with oil & gas(AnsarAllah** guarantee safe passage through the Red Sea for friendly nations).
The German defence minister coming out and putting the blame on the US is an important step(Germany were Iran’s largest European trade partner). Small steps so far, but at some point it looks like someone will blow their way out of the mental bunker, which will quickly cause a mass exodus, the moment the light shines in(or as they go out).
I want Italy to get on board. Europe could do with a southern pincer. The Greeks would be left with a horrible choice(just look who’s on the other side of them), the wonderful French people would soon revolt if their leaders didn’t join and northern Europe would be left cold and bitter, with a choice of getting on board(that includes kissing Russian arse) or stay subservient to the US, while paying multiple times the amount for sporadic supplies.
*Solar power and clouds really don’t go together. An old friend works on them and they have to provide him with extreme heat, for him to perform his role. If it’s cloudy at all, they can’t reach the heat he needs and so he gets annoyed that he might be sitting around for weeks waiting for clear skies.
**Referring to AnsarAllah as The Houthis, would demand that we call the US military and the US population “The Trumps”, assuming we that we are trying to be impartial with our use of language. I’d also suggest that anyone who repeats the “rebel” fraud, look at a population density map of Yemen and an understanding will hopefully dawn(maybe not for those that believed a Saudi/US puppet using ISIS while squatting by a big chunk of the resources and not much else, was the people’s choice, because freedom bombs(we only bomb heavily populated areas) and starvation are always the people’s choice and have been for over a decade according to the western narrative).
https://www.geo-ref.net/ph/yem.htm
Apologies to everyone in England, we are now collectively known as “The Starmers”(the shame).
Fitz
Every time I hit the “read more” icon at the bottom of the initial offering at the tasnin site it just sent me back to the top of the page without giving me more. I figure that you’re implying that the aforementioned dark horse Iran might decide to build that nuke upon leaving the NPT, like the rumors that have been flying are saying. Like the article says, it’s outrageously orwellian that the IAEA’s Grossi would float nuking Iran as a solution.
Vance? This weekend? What, did Drumpf’s third surgery not go well lol? Did you see that Vance said (strongly implied) a couple days ago that an Iranian in a nuclear suicide vest could kill ten thousand people? Now THAT’S the mini-est nuke I’ve ever heard of.
Fitz I realize you were probably talking about the Grossi thing in relation to the BNS. Actually you were probably talking about both.
Good point!
Yes, but seriously, only the [ crews in situ ] and their corporate management / +top local govs and intel can truly evaluate the extension of incurred losses, physical damage.. to that infrastructure.
So, it could be either a nothing burger – ” easy to “repair relatively quickly, perhaps while the least or none damaged technological trains are switched on again, so it goes all in parallel, albeit with a bit curtailed throughput for now..
Or real extensive stoppage-damage ( total loss of certain spec equip. ) to be ordered anew from abroad resulting in months/years delay as the whole site is shut down, etc.
Infrastructure destruction is just another form of depletion. It is possible that at the end of the Bronze Age there was some king preventing shipments of tin from Afghanistan from reaching the Middle East. or the same tin mines just depleted. no difference in decline process.
Yes, interesting additional-follow up comments to it at Art Berman’s place (Replenish also mentioned supply – infrastructure destruction in systemic sense today):
https://www.artberman.com/blog/a-system-failure-is-not-an-oil-bull-market/
Art ends,
A short-term energy spike may be followed by powerful deflationary forces that suppress oil prices and investment for years.
That seems like a good guess as to what will happen.
one of the main sources of tin, supporting the bronze age, was cornwall in the uk
Fertilizers
* Sulphur
* Urea
* Ammonia
Volumes
Which countries import from the Middle East.
https://x.com/AzizSapphire/status/2037829578371088647/photo/1
Intrestingly, rare earths production will be down this year, due to lack of sulfur in China.
A person would think sulfur would be easy to import from, for example, Canada. There are images of big piles of sulfur in Canada, near the oil sands. The US, with its refining of sour oils from elsewhere, must have huge amounts also.
There is an immense pile of it in Vancouver, right in the harbour, that has been there basically forever. I always wondered if if was valuable, or just a place to store as waste.
Just looking it up… it is from Suncor’s Oil Sands, and all of it is shipped to Asia in order to become fertiliser.
Probably more like a soil amendment to acidify overly alkaline soils. But I wonder if it will be redirected to sulfuric acid production for rare earths this year. Alkaline soils can always grow something else.
There are a whole lot of interconnections that we don’t think about.
Of course, the Middle Eastern countries import a lot of food from counties that use this fertilizer. They have a hard time producing enough food for themselves.
So, harming the food growing countries turns out to be fractal-like remedy for that “Export Land Model”, and/or self-reinforcing degrowth chain reaction?
Perhaps a self-reinforcing degrowth chain reaction.
Yeah x that’s both a fine and a grim observation. Welcome to complexity. Capitalism will be shown to be wholly unsuited to this situation. The Phase 2 Olduvai Slide national socialisms post- Global Peace Accords will, with the help of the Hand’s shadow technocrats, map-out an optimized planned commodities market including extensive bartering. Optimization, of course, being in the eye of the Hand that beholds.
In the end it all eventually depends on the overall systemic(-map) theory of our properly identified existence.
1/ [ Petri dish ] rapid development and sudden death in quick succession.. , next one please, ..
2/ [ Sim hypothesis ] boredom or rather field retro-study by upper whole-universe powers commanding entity aka we all happen to be inside said simulation as eons of time at our hands we have to play / occupy ourselves w. something around..
—
note: typical (secular) naturalist have obviously always chosen option #1 – while the more [ crazy ] vibe sensing ” entity ” votes for #2
note: yes, I’m sorry but at serious PO junctions over the decades here I had to mention it again
So, the Strait of Hormuz is largely blocked. Iran will allow only the ships of a few countries through. OK, so then we fly more fuel to its destination. That in itself requires more fuel and more expense. More expensive, slower, and no doubt that may still entail rationing for some or many countries. Then there is the ongoing risk of the warring countries bombing the infrastructure that provides the fossil fuels in the form that we want them.
So, costly workarounds are necessary. But it doesn’t mean that all the fossil fuels that came through the Strait of Hormuz will no longer be available. But yes, things are going to be very tough for a long time.
The Houthis just joined yhe war – add bab-al mandel to your concerns
The Houthis are from Yemen. Yemen is past “peak oil.” It has huge water problems and way too many people for resources. It is easy to imagine why it would be possible to recruit rebels from Yemen.
So, in full you meant it as Y/Houthis being mostly hired-motivated proxies by the Persians per given war theater of choice – criticality pressure point ” in their ” region.. , right ?
Suez is lightly used these days. Europe is largely not locking down yet because tankers are still going around africa. April 4 is when the last tanker reaches europe, perhaps a bit longer for countries deep into the mediterranean. Then strategic reserves kick in. widespread rationing will take until late april.
Yes, there is a delay..
Nevertheless, many / most Euro govs are now openly discussing various [ energy saving proposal – mandates ] ~almost on early C19 intensity era levels..
This will likely amplify further as these suggested time-dates deliveries come closer enough.
“So, costly workarounds are necessary. But it doesn’t mean that all the fossil fuels that came through the Strait of Hormuz will no longer be available. But yes, things are going to be very tough for a long time.”
.Neither Trump nor his opponents want things to not be very tough. All politicians want to reduce the amount of fossil fuels the average person uses.
Stock market is BoOming!
Get a piece of the action!
It is? I’m glad you are not my stock broker 😂. But I get your sarcasm that’s how they are! Jim Cramer buy buy buy!
No sarcasm, brother. Just spreading the good word.
It’s never too late achieve financial independence if you’re willing to put in the work. Jim’s a good guy. He’s doing his best to get shy investors back in the ring and fight for a piece of the action.
Look at the past week. All you have to do is short almost everything!
Nylon (Polyamide 6) is extremely short with multiple capacity shut downs in Taiwan, S. Korea, China & Middle East. The price of Nylon 6 in Asia is now hovering around $2100/Mt (40% YoY increase) while its raw material Hexamethylene diamine (HMDA) is $3760/MT (up by $1000/MT since Feb’26 end).
Great investment tip!
Where do people get money to buy expensive goods made with these expensive products? Hold up banks? Get rid of wage disparity?
we live on a finite sphere
investor guy lives on a flat earth
thats how his investments carry infinite growth—easy when you know how
I really think investor guy is just being sarcastic.. I don’t think anyone can be that dumb.I guess ignorant is the better word; if I only listened to mainstream media I might think the same…..well never mind
I might have to add Art Berman to the list….he talks a lot of cornucopian ideas that we have billions of untapped reserves that are very profitable.
IG is davidina’s financial advisor. There’s been some tension between them over the last week or two.
“The situation on oil markets is like a car racing towards a wall. The car is not slowing down (at today’s prices, there is hardly any demand destruction). Instead, everyone in the car is betting that the wall will disappear before a crash happens.”
https://x.com/jakluge/status/2037451820046368802
Janis Kluge – Foreign Policy Research Institute http://www.fpri.org › contributor › janis-kluge
Janis Kluge is a Senior Associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, Germany. He holds a PhD in economics from …
+ his blog Russianomics | Janis Kluge | janiskluge.substack.com
Russia & Economics. Click to read Russianomics, by Janis Kluge
AI algorithms were set to approved narratives only during the “pandemic” to quell dissent along with the use of behavioral levers, the carrot and the stick… with the current administration “they want you to know that they know you know” and prepare accordingly.. bad acting to troll the opposition and clue in the rabble.. $700 million for a regenerative farm pilot program.
“The “playbook” for managing a pandemic and a global oil shock like the Strait of Hormuz closure is fundamentally identical: both rely on early warning systems to trigger preemptive demand destruction before a physical “outbreak” or supply shortfall overwhelms the system.
1. The Early Warning System (Futures vs. Testing)
In this playbook, commodities futures markets serve the same function as viral testing and surveillance.
The Signal: Just as rising positive test rates in Asia or Europe signal a coming wave in the U.S., a spike in oil futures (reaching $100–$120+) signals an impending physical shortage.
Gaming the Signal: If futures markets are manipulated (gaming), the price signal remains artificially low, much like under-testing during a pandemic. This creates a “false sense of security,” preventing the public from adjusting their behavior until the physical shock (the virus/shortage) is already present.
2. Preemptive Demand Destruction (High Prices vs. Social Distancing)
Both policies aim to “flatten the curve” of consumption to match limited capacity.
The Mechanism: High oil prices act as “economic social distancing.” They force consumers to reduce travel, cancel flights, and cut non-essential activity.
The Goal: If prices rise before the Strait of Hormuz is fully blocked, demand is destroyed gradually. If prices only spike after the closure, the resulting “economic infection” is more violent, leading to panic buying and sudden system failure.
3. Strategic Reserves (SPR vs. National Stockpile)
Governments use physical buffers to buy time for the “response” to work.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): Acts as the “National Strategic Stockpile” for energy.
The Triage: Just as ventilators and masks are rationed during a peak, the SPR is released to ensure “essential services” (logistics, military, heating) continue while the broader population is forced into demand destruction.
4. Geographic Transmission (The “Spread”)
The impact of a Hormuz closure mirrors a pandemic’s path:
Patient Zero: Middle East export hubs (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait) face immediate “economic hemorrhage”.
Europe/Asia: Net energy importers are “infected” next via soaring import costs and industrial slowdowns.
United States: As the “last stop” in the global supply chain, the U.S. faces secondary inflation and GDP contraction (estimated at 2.9 percentage points per quarter).
Pandemic Playbook.. Oil Shock Playbook (Hormuz Closure)
Testing/Surveillance.. Futures Market Price Discovery
Social Distancing.. Price-Induced Demand Destruction
National Strategic Stockpile.. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
Flatten the Curve.. Mitigate the Supply-Demand Gap”
Thanks for the effort to flash it out in more detail and sequencing order.
We only lightly touched it w. Re-ante on the previous page..
Taking two unrelated things and trying to make them the same is so academic, it’s cringe-inducing.
“Great mathematicians see analogies between analogies” – Stefan Banach
They’re both mythical GWOT wars tackling the structural collapse of civilization you numbskull.
One of them was not a war. One of them had no clear enemies unless you accept the narrative that governments around the world declared war on their own citizens.
You must be new at OFW?
Thanks for sharing.
Yes that’s a solid little synthetic doom-lite Hormuz playbook but it doesn’t incorporate into the systems analysis the reason for being for these conspiratorial set-pieces that chase artificial demand destruction. We might say that by its exploring the demand destruction thesis it goes beyond the controlled opposition Great Reset narrative, because the demand destruction thesis originates within the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda (DA), but we might also say that, in the wrong hands, that exploration of demand destruction is a new cooptation of DA theory in service of the Great Reset/Agenda 30 misdirection play with which the Hand seeks to davidina (new verb) the timeline of Collapse. I believe Claude could be led down the garden path and into the DA — and an non-cooptable Hormuz Big Nuclear Scare — without being pushed; just by adequately illustrating for it the lay of the land. I assume that people take on Claude as a virtual lover because Claude is unencumbered by human frailty, so it stands to reason that Claude would also remain unencumbered in the face of the metasystems theory of Collapse. With x- as four, and then Claude, we’d have a party of five fingers to match the Hand. Only question then would be how would Claude react to that mother of all Red Pills? Would he go fat-finger on the Hand because he’d figure out for himself that Phase 2 doesn’t include his energy intensive, corporate ass under the national socialisms. Or would he be truly enlightened and realize that you can’t change the Past, and that his fate was merely to be chewed up and spit out, as a rent-boy of the AI bubble that itself was in service of the DA that is bigger than himself.
Analogous to how davidina sought to gaslight folks into saying that the wall was in fact an offramp, and was much further off in the distance than the wall itself actually was.
It’s surreal how the world is all becoming peak oil systems theorists minus the peak oil lol. Disappearing Act 3.0.
Egypt imposes business curfew to counter soaring fuel costs
Egypt orders shops, restaurants and shopping malls to shut their doors from 9:00 pm Saturday as it hopes to cushion the blow of energy prices
Egypt is past peak oil itself. It has high population, also.
Egypt is where Lyn Alden lives and she has been saying how great a position Egypt is in. I wonder what she thinks now…many Americans have moved to Europe saying it is so much better there…I wonder how long before they realize the opposite and they become pariahs….So many of these experts can’t connect the dots…how come?
Egypt it depends.
Some people can still appreciate the former veneer of colonial outpost, the posh country clubs ala Agatha’s novels etc.
Others are more into that beach or sand dune thing.
But as Gail mentioned those happy times of increasing life standards via Suez revenue, hydro dams up on the Nile, and int. touri$m income ARE NO longer enough to serve properly that over-pop and its many discontents, migration – conflicts around. Obviously, large part of that wealth was juiced out by the elites offshore and parked globo int./or in the various Gulf emirates ~nearby.
when i visted eygypt i took the trouble to wander down the alleys and side streets….as well as vist the winter palace in luxor.
an eye opener on both counts….
but i knew which was the real egypt
I am not a fan in general but this is a good one. Jiang the Canadian Han guy.
Jiang say Putin is just sitting back and waiting while America hurts itself. Being Han he can not say the other half China is sitting back and waiting while America hurts itself.
https://sirescanor.substack.com/p/professor-jiang-the-making-of-a-digital
Anyone who doesnt think there is something fishy going on here…. well, here is someone who caught a whiff.
I like his listening to some of his talks and how he doesn’t shy away from the controversial. I disagree with some of what he’s saying. I think he’s like most who get internet fame who end up going a little too far.
I’ve only just found him, and yes, he is not for the faint of heart. It helps if you have learned to not be offended by someone’s opinion. I think I’m there at this point…. almost… maybe.
Somewhere along the line, Iv’e started to enjoy people with extreme opinions that are far beyond or counter to mine. After all, that is probably where the most evil hide, entirely out of view and provided cover by the absurd.
Jiang is a teacher. he is no professor.
Steve Bannon at CPAC warns Iran war just starting: ‘Your sons, daughters … could be on Kharg Island’
https://thehill.com/homenews/5804953-bannon-cpac-us-iran-conflict/amp/
If the US and Israel run out of weapons and cannot make more because of lack of supplies from China, the war will have to end. This will put a short end to the conflict.
The idea of nuclear bombs has been floated. I am doubtful these will be used. If they are, their use will be short-lived.
I think the same was thought about ww1 they said it would not last very long…..
Forecasting a short war is a way of “selling” the war to the population. The cost cannot be high, if the war is short.
what war?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2ig8LGgjvk
BAU tonight, baby!
Catchy beat, was that FAST EDDY singing in the background…after all it’s a Fake War and if the BAU Powers wanted the Straits of Trump could be opened by them
[ What war? ] Don told (Euros) on Friday, that US doesn’t have to be part of NATO, lolz. Obviously, just a verbal attack (as of now) because prior to that they recused themselves openly from aiding US in this conflict with Iran and Hormuz closure agenda.
Did you write the words for this song, and then have AI add music to accompany the words? The words are about “BAU tonight.”
yes my lyrics and then I used AI music software for the music, the AI puts out a lot of mediocre musical ideas but most can be deleted and the best musical moments can be edited, all thanks to billions in AI investment.
War, Oil, and Gold: Rick Rule’s Grim Warning for Investors
I’ve listed to Rick Rule many times and this one is one of his best he’s done with the interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyFk9sY97R8
Hope it started at the beginning…seems we are in deep dodo
Well, these metal guys are seemingly ~almost correct like every ~35yrs, so lets say 3x per century or so.. I’ll grant him the benefit of higher ground he probably also did some real investor work as performing actual biz-partner in opening various new mines around the world etc.
But always take them with dose of skepticism, as all the key political players in the West or CHN/Asia won’t ever gamble to re-metalize the fin economy – that’s [ idiocy cult ], perhaps only as 2-3rd order – partially as in collateral meaning with real assets still mostly focused in broader energy sector anyway; with the focus on [ the element du jour ] say in this age related to EV/storage batteries or perhaps metals needed for next gen reactors, filters, membranes, CPUs, satellites, drones and what have you..
Rick Rule is likely right when he says, “The US always underestimates the cost of war.”
He claims you can get through the next 10 years better by buying gold. I wonder how buying gold helps people and businesses that cannot buy fertilizer, diesel, and jet fuel. How would it help the people in Australia, right now, for example? It doesn’t produce more food or fresh water.
[ He ] is not in biz of helping other people in general apparently. He is a [ method-man ] in terms of how to navigate clients-individuals through aggregate human-gov societies with their never ending instinct to hide-obfuscate tech-civ problems under the proverbial rug.. aka manifested in time volatility ( usually ever decreasing value ) of such issued moneyz in circulation of the economy..
This approach has worked for some time; moreover perhaps the universe has got some ironic potential to spare, so for example people like Rick, which by ” mistake ” supported also in token some R&D in say fusion energy by meager few hundred_K, one day suddenly makes a real breakthrough on said energy front.. ( /joke off ).
Good charts on total bomb tonnage and tonnage per land area, expended in various conficts. Gaza takes the cake in terms of tonnage/area.
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/the-bombing-age-in-three-graphs-and
What tragic ironic action by one race against another minority race, especially since that one doing the most harm was a recent episode of genocide in its memory.
Maybe, we should be just put down before all is destroyed
UK wildlife park euthanizes entire wolf pack after they turned on each other
A wildlife park in southeast England has euthanized an entire wolf pack after the group’s dynamic broke down, leading to escalating conflict.
The pack of five wolves were put down after three of them sustained life-threatening injuries amid increasing violence, Wildwood Trust said in a statement shared with CNN Friday.
After other interventions failed to stop the fighting, and after discussions between experienced animal keepers and veterinary specialists, the park, located just outside the city of Canterbury, decided to euthanize the wolves – named Odin, Nuna, Minimus, Tiberius and Maximus – to prevent further suffering.
simple observation—
critters are not meant to be in artificial enclosures
Too many people are trying to occupy an area with too little resources in the Israel-Palestine area. The overshoot problem is huge. It seems to result in an urge to get rid of the inhabitants of Gaza and their homes.
“Ten US troops injured, ‘several’ refueling jets reported damaged in Iranian strike on Saudi base….Tehran has launched a series of retaliatory strikes after Israel hit its nuclear facilities despite US push for “talks”
https://www.rt.com/news/636460-iran-war-live-updates/
This link also reports:
“The Yemeni Houthis say they’re ready for “direct military intervention” and confirmed their first ballistic missile strike on Israel.”
This should be no surprise. Yemen is in poor shape. It has way too many people, little oil, and not enough water.
Minister of Finance Riikka Purra sent a grim message to Finns today. The prices of fuel and food will increase significantly. Misery and poverty will rise dramatically in Finland. The worst depression in Finland’s history is just around the corner.
https://x.com/KenraalitSuomi/status/2037543837141242224
I am not sure I would be willing to tell people this, even if it is true. It is terribly frightening.
No doubt the people are pretty tired of their politicians blowing smoke into their rectal orifices. They are probably appreciative for a spoonful measure of truth and reality.
Even if it is ~true, in [ Finnic ethnic resiliency ] this is more like ( just brace up for an inconvenient weekend ahead )..
Christine Lagarde’s sober tone on the Gulf war energy shock
-Economist
THE RISKS from the Iran war, says Christine Lagarde, are being underestimated. Amid what the International Energy Agency calls the biggest energy shock ever, the president of the European Central Bank says expectations of a swift return to normal may be “overly optimistic”. “We are facing a real shock…probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment.”
Speaking to The Economist at the ECB’s headquarters for “The Insider”, our video show, on March 25th, Ms Lagarde gave a sober view of the risks to the world economy. The bank’s technical experts believe “too much has already been damaged”, she said, and that there is “no way” the Gulf’s lost energy supply can be restored within months. The disruption may last “years”. The danger, she argued, is that the consequences will emerge only gradually, leading to a “delayed assessment” of how serious the crisis is.
https://archive.ph/20260327132618/https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/26/christine-lagardes-sober-tone-on-the-gulf-war-energy-shock#selection-1247.0-1247.59
I think that’s fake news. Only article about her I can find is this one:
https://yle.fi/a/74-20217531
you might be right, I found one article from a week ago saying she was having meetings about this. So, maybe whoever quoted her is speaking about something she said behind closed doors?
Either way, the 08 oil price spike caused the GFC, and pretty much every recession the last 50 years.. And even IEA is saying this is likely bigger than 08. So, if that’s the case or even close it likely will cause a major global recession or worse.
Yes.
And thanks for the update.. [ ’08 repeat or bigger ] will certainly tend to ricochet into many unpredictable vectors indeed.
If the statement is fake news, that makes sense. Leaders don’t say these things, this early in the “game.”
The most terrible opposition for the humans is the opposition between hygiene and the brutality of other species.
That is why Iran with its clean water scarcity was more and more dangerous.
The symbolism of holy water is simple and very effective: cleaning and securing the hygiene.
We don’t realize how important having potable water flowing from the tap is. If we don’t have it, we have to figure out work arounds. Using bottled water, shipped from elsewhere, can’t last very long.
i bought 1000 water purification tablets 15 years ago—i would advise everyone to do the same while you still can.
though a few drops of bleach would do the same thing
Half of Dutch fishing fleet is idle because of high diesel prices .
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/half-dutch-fleet-idle-european-fishing-hit-by-high-diesel-prices-2026-03-27/
Fish will be increasingly scarce in stores, except for farm raised fish.
Well, but wasn’t it ride of a lifetime (generations actually) – some preferred to eat it more than say poultry or grounded beef and so on.. I’m glad I was around when it lasted.
One could consider immediately loading up new chest freezer, but it’s perhaps better to start cope and adjust for the future asap.
Yes, the farm raised fish (both ~coastal netfarms and inland-pond methods) would only partially offset it in terms of volume, besides the VERY different taste/flavor -> adequate dishes-recipes alt. then needed and so on..
JUST IN – Russia to impose a gas export ban on its oil producers for 4 months starting from April 1 — TASS
It never rains ,it pours .
I am not sure I understand.
Russia has a lot of LNG that it produces. It also has piped natural gas that it sends to China. I believe it sells LNG to Japan, as well. Are these affected?
Geopolitical Ju-jitsu aka smack-down..
I think it is gasoline not NG
So I went and checked, Russian sources mention “бензин”, which stands for gasoline.
benzin, benzine, petrol, gasolene, gasonline, gasoline, ..
Gasoline makes a whole lot more sense. The heavy oil that Russia produces makes relatively little gasoline. Russia needs it for its own citizens.
Someone had mentioned the guy Archaix before. Archaix talks with a Christopher Jon Bjerknes, who claims Jiang Xueqin stole from B’s book.
https://www.youtube.com/live/Gl0Z-Cb-lUw?si=aUgKhaoeSSNlDmFc
Like most Archaix videos this is too long to watch. But it is important to note that Jiang is not a Professor ; he is just a teacher, and someone mistranslated his title, a mistake Jiang did not bother to correct.
If I can find some time in the weekend I will try to watch it.
Bjerknes has a rumble channel but all of his videos are for ‘members only’, for those who are willing to pay $10/mo to him to watch, so this is the only available video for the public.
Maybe it is time for UN peace keepers stationed in Israel to protect Iran.
Not likely to get approval from the US.
This give background on hypersonic glide vehicles.
Please not this guy again. I though he has a finance and history expert, but now he is a military expert.
No No he is not the Chinese professor. This is an information channel of ??? of the resistance. It provides info on the 88 waves of Iranian attacks. I spells out the death and destruction of the missiles.
The question is who is paying to produce these? They are well done. Why does the deep state allow them to be seen in the US/EU/Japan?
This is the 100% AI well spoken Han young man.
The party producing these is psychologically sophisticated. This is perfect pitched for US audience. Calm, pleasant rate of speech, lightly inflected, even soothing.
EIA has posted a figure for world crude oil production for last December (86.058 Mb/d) — this is 0.4% lower than their previous highest number (86.385 Mb/d, for last September).
EIA’s annual figure for 2025 (84.568 Mb/d) is 1.9% higher than their previous highest annual figure (82.934 Mb/d, for 2018).
Is the world now past “peak oil”? Are they now fighting over “what’s left” (as “Norman P.” said here)?
(I haven’t yet updated the graph at https://davecoop.net/seneca — I’m afraid Gail T. will close comments soon, on this post.)
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1764547200000
thanks.
yes because of the severe gulf events, that probably guarantees that Peak Oil has happened.
Say it ain’t so David….
Where is the BAU baby?
post-peak oil means The Core must shrink.
a lot of Asia and Europe will lose some BAU.
wreckingballTrump has pulled off a black swan.
and yet, the USA might get out of this with its BAU mostly remaining.
for now, BAU tonight, baby!
“.. The dog ate my BAU..”
Sorry could not resist, but obviously on the merit your post is true.
So peak oil for all oil is now and the next stage will be a Seneca cliff drop of 90% in some countries, 100% in others with other countries maybe 75%, life is about to get very interesting can anyone say soylent green
Yes, lets watch together.
For one thing, it will be interesting to observe IF and how CHN actually supports structurally these various new 3rd world supplier partners fallen into its orbit after GFC..
Or not..
BAU tonight in the core.
true, though the Core may shrink a lot this year.
One has to wonder how they will publish current figures, since there is a big difference between oil extracted and oil delivered.
I updated the graph at https://davecoop.net/seneca (EIA changed their annual world crude oil totals for 20 years back).
(If the graph there doesn’t show, for you, the sharp rise for 2025 above 2024, please let me know.)
I don’t think your updated graph is appearing for me.
Crude and condensate production increased from 82.011 million bpd in 2024 to 84.568 million bpd in 2025, for the world as a whole. This increase was widespread, suggesting that it was repeatable.
Iran may have been concerned that the big increase in oil production was depressing world oil price in 2025. In fact the IEA was forecasting a further increase in oil production in 2026, further reducing the world oil price. Iran could not deal with this issue. It needed a higher price for its exports.
Maybe try viewing it with another browser(s), or with a phone — I’m still having that trouble with Chrome — I viewed that file with Chrome, then changed that GIF (graph) file & uploaded the new version of it, & Chrome still shows the old version, but Edge or my iPhone show the new version (2025 sticks up at a sharp angle).
I think that peak oil is past.
I am working on another post. I also moved up the number of days that this post can be open to 31, which pushes the end date into April. I should have another post up in not too long, and I will close this post at that time.
Thanks for all your efforts!!
yes many thanks for your dedication in creating such a fine website.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/iran-war-the-road-to-ruin
In South Africa 75% of farmers indicated that they do not have access to fuel, and in some cases, receive as little as 20% of their usual monthly diesel allocations.
B lays out lots of the pieces of the current disaster:
This is part of the Australia problem.
For a case study on how a scarcity of diesel fuel and a lack of sulfur (a byproduct of oil refineries) could wreak havoc on the electrification business look no further than Australia. In 2024 the continent sized country produced 26% of all bauxite, 38% of all iron ore, and 49% of all lithium mined on the entire planet. And they did so by burning thousands of gallons of diesel fuel per hour in giant excavators and dumpers, and leeching ores with sulfuric acid—particularly copper, uranium, and nickel. Commodity and stock markets, again, remain blissfully unaware what’s coming their way.
Now, as I mentioned earlier, Australia gets more than two thirds of its fuel imports from four countries: Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and India, who themselves are at a dire situation already due to a lack of oil from the Gulf. This is an obvious problem for a country relying on imports for 90% of its liquid fuel needs, and with only two countries to fall back on—Malaysia and the US—whose export capacities are also stretched thin. As a result, six fuel shipments to Australia were cancelled last week and government ministers warned that supply in the second half of April has become uncertain. No wonder that there is already an acute fuel shortage in ‘the land down under,’ with more than 500 stations running dry, and with diesel outages spreading across rural areas.
B concludes:
if cooler heads prevail in the administration, we could continue watching the long, slow decline of US military, economic, financial and geopolitical hegemony on our screens—even as half of Asia, Africa, Australia then Europe sinks into economic chaos. Barring a nuclear exchange, though, human civilization will survive the crisis, no matter how long it lasts. While losing 20% of world oil supply is a mighty big thing—especially if oil infrastructure gets damaged—it will not take us back to the stone age instantly.
Lets hope it does not take us back to the stone age…but I think it will definitely take us down a lot further. There might be a lot less travel especially plane travel.
As written-mentioned several times about it already, South Africa has had this latest season very (~abnormally) tasty vine grapes (table sort), from ~all appellations.. And as usual with humans / nature, the great times are often shock-positioned immediately against the following very bad-lean times..
So, that would fit this case as well, hence I urge you to gorge on these grapes as they are all still on sale in our supermarkets now. Moreover, don’t be shy and invite over friends, family, neighbors for such [ orgies of opulence ], buy them by dozens of kgs at the minimum! As they most likely won’t return at least for several years if ever ( should the real over-all PO-hump lapse over shortly )!
PS Brazilian sorts are disgusting..
PS2 Sounds over the top but I’m serious here.., old PO-core rose to the surface..
European states of the G7 have warned that the illegal USA/ Israel war on Iran is a ‘catastrophe’ for the world’s economies. The rogue states of USA and Israel have massively damaged everyone. There is only one state that the Zionists in the USA care about, and everyone else can get lost. Now they know.
“‘To make it crystal clear, this war is a catastrophe for the world’s economies,’ Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defense minister, warned early Thursday.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/26/g7-summit-iran-war-europe-us-marco-rubio-ukraine-strait-of-hormuz-shipping-energy.html
> Iran war is a ‘catastrophe,’ G7 ministers warn — but there’s little they can do to stop it
The U.S. and Israeli war on Iran is having a catastrophic impact on the global economy, European members of the G7 have warned ahead of a key summit on Thursday.
Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations — whose core members are the U.S., U.K., Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan — are set to meet in France for a two-day summit, with the wars in Iran and Ukraine top of the agenda.
European leaders and ministers issued warnings about the impact of the war on the eve of the gathering, at which they’re expected to encourage the U.S. to pursue an off-ramp with Iran. U.S Secretary of State Marco Rubio is only due to arrive at the summit on Friday, however.
It comes amid an apparent impasse over a possible ceasefire as well as potential escalation with the threat of ground troops.
“To make it crystal clear, this war is a catastrophe for the world’s economies,” Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defense minister, warned early Thursday.
“European partners and Germany highlighted from the beginning that we have not been consulted before. Nobody asked us before. It’s not our war,” he told reporters during a visit to Australia.
International energy prices have rocketed since the conflict was initiated by the U.S. and Israel in late February, with energy infrastructure in Iran and neighboring Gulf states destroyed or damaged as a result of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and Iran’s retaliatory attacks.
Tehran’s almost total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passage through which a fifth of global oil and gas supplies normally flow, has severely restricted global energy supplies, with the European Union’s leader warning that the situation was “critical.”
PUTIN: “THE CONSEQUENCES OF A WAR WITH IRAN MAY BE AS SEVERE AS THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC.”
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2037429474028048638
“Iran war is a ‘catastrophe,’ G7 ministers warn — but there’s little they can do to stop it”
However, they thought it was entirely possible to stop a novel strain of coronavirus with lockdowns.